week ending Aug 31

 The Fed Chair Gives the President a Dose of His Own Medicine - For months, President Trump has been savaging his hand-picked Federal Reserve chairman — possibly to scapegoat Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues for any future economic pain. Powell, in the mild-mannered way of central bankers, on Friday scapegoated Trump back.  In a closely watched speech at an economic policy gathering, Powell signaled the Fed was willing to further cut U.S. interest rates to ward off worrying signs for the U.S. economy. He also suggested there are limits to what the Fed can do when the White House’s trade policies are making businesses and markets nervous, which is a drag on economic growth. (The president’s response to Powell’s speech was … not positive. He rhetorically asked whether the Fed chair or China’s president is the “bigger enemy” of the U.S.) Bond traders interpreted Powell’s comments as the Fed’s openness to as many interest-rate reductions as needed if the economic data justify it,Brian Chappatta writes. Powell will, however, need to navigate a Fed that is divided over further easing monetary policy. Powell gave off the feeling of preferring not to cut interest rates more, Brian says, but realizing that the Trump administration’s trade actions may leave him little choice. Trump’s tweets may not have gotten to Powell, but it seems Trump’s policies did.

BofA: Central Banks Are Creating Bubbles Instead Of Helping The Economy; The Result Will Be A Disaster - In recent weeks we have seen a surprising spike in criticism of central banks by establishment figures, in some cases central bankers themselves, most notably Mark Carney who last Friday remarkably admitted that very low interest rates tend "to coincide with high risk events such as wars, financial crises, and breaks in the monetary regime." This continued yesterday when 7 months after it praised negative rates, the San Francisco Fed pulled a U-turn and warned that the "Japanese experience", where negative rates dragged down inflation expectations even more, is ground for NIRP caution. Then, in an even more bizarre interview with the FT, St Louis Fed president James Bullard made an even more stunning admission - that the Fed no longer has any idea what is going on. To wit:  "Something is going on, and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions about what we think we’re doing... We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal."  There was more. In a series of questions aimed at the Fed in this post-Jackson Hole powerless reality, we brought you some rhetorical fireworks from the head of FX at Deutsche Bank, Alan Ruskin, who lashed out at the central bank with 20 questions, technically statements, that 10 years ago would have branded him a tinfoil-wearing conspiracy theorist, among which:

• "Will the Fed/ECB buy equities/ETFs? How far are central banks willing to distort underlying value, or is distorting value intrinsic to Central Banking as per the Austrian critique?"
• "How much are Central Banks going to be complicit in a collapse in fiscal standards, by buying public sector assets? Will a passive Central bank simply accommodate and facilitate fiscal actions related to MMT?"
• "Are we reaching a natural end to the secular decline in inflation and rates that has propelled the asset cycle in the last 40 years. Has asset inflation hidden an even more meaningful deceleration in the natural rate of growth that will evident in the next decade?"
• "Is it the Central Banks job to do away with business cycle? And at what price? Are we witnessing the great moderation interspersed with a great collapse in confidence and wilder big credit cycle, and greater long-term misallocation of resources?"
• "The Fed did a particularly good job hitting its inflation target in the years before the Great Financial collapse in 2008 - what does that say about inflation targeting creating stability?"

Tying it all together was Bank of America, which in a report meant to recommend buying gold, lashed out at the Fed, warning that "ultra-easy monetary policies have led to distortions across various asset classes"; worse - and these are not our words, but of Bank of America - "it also stopped normal economic adjustment/ renewal mechanisms by for instance sustaining economic participants that would normally have gone out of business", i.e. a record number of zombie corporations. Which brought us to BofA's conclusion: "We fear that this dynamic could ultimately lead to "quantitative failure", under which markets refocus on those elevated liabilities and the lack of global growth, which would in all likelihood lead to a material increase in volatility."

Fed should refuse to ‘play along’ with Trump’s trade war: William Dudley - Former New York Fed President William Dudley on Tuesday touched a central-banking third rail by suggesting the Federal Reserve refuse to “play along” in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China.In an op-ed on Bloomberg, Dudley said the trade war was a “manufactured disaster-in-the-making” for the U.S. economy. And, given that the Fed’s goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should hold off interest-rate cuts to discourage the president from escalating the trade war further, Dudley suggested.This alone is a controversial opinion, but the former Fed official went further, suggesting the Fed might consider actions that would reduce the chances of Trump’s re-election. “If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020,” he said.‘If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.’William Dudley, former New York Fed president In a statement, Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smit said political considerations aren’t part of Fed deliberations. “The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions are guided solely by its congressional mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment,” she said.  Tony Fratto, a former White House spokesman under President George W. Bush and now a managing partner at Hamilton Place Strategies, called Dudley’s op-ed “silly” and said it would give new ammunition to Fed critics: The Fed generally prefers to retain its statutory independence with the view that they should react to developments in the economy resulting from policy decisions by the White House or Congress, rather than enter the political debate pre-emptively.

Lawrence Summers slams former top Fed official Dudley for essay on Trump -The fallout from former New York Fed President William Dudley’s op-ed on President Donald Trump continued Wednesday with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers saying the column “might be the least-responsible statement by a former financial official in decades.” In a series of tweets, Summers called the Dudley op-ed “the worst case of Trump derangement in the financial world.”Dudley’s essay argued the Fed should not “play along” with Trump’s trade war with China. He went further and said the Fed might help prevent Trump’s re-election.Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and a former central banker at the Bank of England, said Dudley’s column was “horribly mistaken.”  “It feeds conspiracy and it was totally irresponsible to talk that way,” he said.He compared Dudley’s stance with how the European Central Bank, unhappy with the direction of fiscal policy in the eurozone, reacted to the Greek debt crisis in 2011 by raising interest rates twice.  “You can’t go out of your remit, it just gets a central bank killed,” Posen said.  Fed officials will likely react by circling the wagons and become disciplined in their speeches, Posen said.  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, in an interview with NPR prior to Dudley’s essay, said that when a central bank plays politics “it leads to really bad outcomes over the long run for the economy.

Senator Calls For Probe Into Fed Independence After Bill Dudley Urges Fed To Overthrow Trump - In the aftermath of the shocking Bill Dudley op-ed, which has "opened a staggering can of worms", and prompted many to call the former NY Fed central banker "rogue"... Dudley is now officially a rogue central banker. — Kyle Bass (@Jkylebass) August 28, 2019... it was only a matter of time before someone called for an official inquiry into the "independence" of the Federal Reserve: the world's most important central bank, the same one which Bernanke's former advisor Andrew Levin said 3 years ago, "a lot of people would be stunned to know” the extent to which the Federal Reserve is privately owned."And sure enough, on Wednesday afternoon, Republican Senator Thom Tillis called for the Senate Banking Committee to probe the Federal Reserve’s independence after Bill Dudley infamously suggested the upcoming presidential election "falls within the Fed’s purview", hinting that it is ultimately the Fed - through its monetary policy - that picks the US president. Tillis, who is up for reelection next fall in swing state North Carolina, said he plans to ask the Banking Committee’s chairman, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), about convening a hearing “regarding Fed independence and the danger of this institution taking unprecedented and inappropriate steps to meddle in the presidential election." Quoted by Politico, Tillis said "I am very disappointed that former Fed monetary Vice Chairman Bill Dudley is lobbying the Fed to use its authority as a political weapon against President Trump. The President is standing up for America against China after 30 years of our country and our workers being ripped off and there is now an effort to get the Fed to try to sabotage the President’s efforts.”

Bank of England governor tells Jackson Hole conference: Existing financial system will not hold - One of the fictions most assiduously promoted by the ideological representatives of the capitalist economy is that those in charge of monetary and economic policy have a sound knowledge of the system over which they preside and a clear idea of what they are doing.  So when it was revealed that the financial system was in reality a snake pit of corruption and conflicts of interest, it was a case of all hands on deck to provide the justification for the trillions of dollars made available to the very banks and financial institutions whose activities had sparked the crisis, while hundreds of millions of workers the world over were made to pay through wage cuts and austerity measures. The bailouts may have been regrettable, it was argued, but these measures were necessary to prevent something even worse. New regulations were being put in place to prevent a recurrence and after a period of “unconventional” measures—essentially the handout of virtually free money to the “malefactors of great wealth”—things would return to “normal.” This piece of fiction was exposed at the conference of central bankers and financial experts held at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Reporting on the meeting, the Financial Times noted “there was a sense that things would never be the same again.” In an interview with the newspaper the president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, James Bullard said there had been a “regime shift” in economic conditions.  “Something is going on,” Bullard told the Financial Times, “and that’s causing a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions about what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going back to normal.”   However much they seek to promote the illusion that they are in control, those in charge of the financial system do have to engage in a discussion over the mounting problems they confront and what might be done to alleviate them. And a couple of papers presented at the meeting were significant from that standpoint.  Mark Carney, the retiring governor of the Bank of England, told the conference the present international monetary system based on the US “won’t hold” and that a new international monetary system had to be constructed.  He noted that the US accounted for only 10 percent of global trade and 15 percent of global GDP but the dollar formed the basis for half of world trade invoices and two-thirds of global securities issuances. Movements in the dollar, therefore, were of fundamental importance to other economies even if they had few trade links with the US. They were forced to hoard dollars in order to guard against capital flight.  In essence this is a modern-day version of the proposal advanced by the British representative John Maynard Keynes at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 for the establishment of a global currency, bancor. At that time, the US asserted its power and insisted that the dollar, backed by gold, had to be the international currency. But since the removal of the gold backing in 1971 as a stable anchor, the global financial system has become increasingly impacted by movements in the US dollar. “The deficiencies of the international monetary and financial system have become increasingly potent,” Carney concluded and that “even a passing acquaintance with monetary history suggests that this centre won’t hold.”

Why Mark Carney Thinks The Dollar Can No Longer Be The World's Reserve Currency - While Jerome Powell's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech was, in the words of Brean Capital's Russ Certo "underwhelming and anti-climatic", one couldn't say the same for the shocking luncheon speech by Bank of England's outgoing governor, Mark Carney, titled "The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System", where he dedicated no less than 23 pages to a stunning - for a central banker - cause: to describe why the dollar's  "destabilizing" reserve status role in the world economy has to end, and why central banks need to join together to create their own replacement reserve currency, one potentially tied to Facebook's new "stablecoin" Libra, although in reality any "Synthetic Hegemonic Currency" as Carney defined it would do. The argument behind all these articles is simple and two-fold: i) in a fiat world, one can only devalue relative to some other currency, yet we have now reached a point where (as Pimco suggested two years ago when it said the Fed should buy gold to devalue the dollar against it) every currency needs to devalue relative to some hard index outside of the monetary system (Carney's point is that with a dollar as reserve currency anchor, it is becoming virtually impossible to lower its value even though it's critical to do that), which means that ii) the unprecedented credit expansion that began when the last peg to gold was broken in 1971 when Nixon ended the Bretton Woods international system, has gone too far, and establishment powers are now seeking a reason to reimpose a hard monetary link: call it a "gold standard" or, more aptly, a "crypto (or stablecoin) standard"Which brings us to why what Carney said, is shocking: because he not only validated what until recently the "serious experts" (i.e. the vapid, pro-establishment echo chamber with zero financial comprehension) would consider the deranged rambling of tinfoil blogs, but confirmed that - as a member of the establishment - what comes next will be catastrophic. With that said, the gist of Carney's speech was largely as expected: he argued that due to the dollar’s dominance of the global financial system, risks of a liquidity trap of ultra-low interest rates and weak growth are growing. In other words, after the US and dollar benefited for decades from being the world's reserve currency, that status is now hurting not only the greenback and the US economy, but the rest of the world too. Commenting on possible replacements, Carney mentioned on possible fiat alternative: " the most likely candidate for true reserve currency status, the Renminbi (RMB)", which however "has a long way to go before it is ready to assume the mantle." As such, "for the Renminbi to become a truly global currency, much more is required.  Moreover, history teaches that the transition to a new global reserve currency may not proceed smoothly."

How Negative Interest Rates Screw Up The Economy  - Now there is talk everywhere that the United States too will descend into negative interest rates. And there are people on Wall Street and in the media that are hyping this absurd condition where government bonds and perhaps even corporate bonds, and eventually even junk bonds have negative yields. All of that NIRP absurdity is already the case in Europe and Japan.There is now about $17 trillion – trillion with a T – in negative yielding debt in the world, government and corporate debt combined. This started out as a short-term emergency experiment. And now this short-term emergency experiment has become the new normal. And now more short-term emergency experiments need to be added to it, because, you know, the first batches weren’t big enough and haven’t worked, or have stopped working, or more realistically, have screwed things up so badly that nothing works anymore. And there are folks who want to prescribe the same kind of killer application to help out the US economy – which is growing just fine.  Since the ECB’s shock-and-awe package started to appear in the rumor mill at the beginning of August, the European bank stock index – it includes banks in all EU countries, not just those that use the euro – well, since that shock-and-awe rumor appeared, the stock index for those banks has dropped 11%.Negative interest rates are terrible for banks. They destroy the business model for banks. They make future bank collapses more likely because banks cannot build capital to absorb losses. But banks are a crucial factor in a modern economy. It’s like an electric utility. You can somehow survive without electricity, but a modern economy cannot thrive without electricity. Same thing for the role commercial banking plays.If interest rates go negative, the spread the bank needs in order to make a profit gets thinner. But risks get larger because prices of the assets used as collateral have been inflated by these low interest rates. At first this is OK, but over a longer period, this equation runs into serious trouble.

PCE Price Index: July Headline & Core - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for July was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.21% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.38% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.18% MoM and 1.58% YoY. Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. More recent FOMC statements now refer only to the two percent target. The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

Chicago Fed "Index points to slower economic growth in July" - From the Chicago Fed: Index points to slower economic growth in July: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.36 in July from +0.03 in June. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.14 in July from –0.30 in June. This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in July (using the three-month average).  According to the Chicago Fed:  A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Q2 GDP Revised Down to 2.0% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were unrevised. PCE growth was revised up from 4.3% to 4.7%. Residential investment was revised down from -1.5% to -2.9%. This was at the consensus forecast. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates.

Q2 GDP  Second Estimate: Real GDP at 2.0% - The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.0% (2.04% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.1% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.0%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were unrevised (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2). [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.21% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.32%. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 13.5% below trend.

Second quarter GDP revised down to 2% as residential spending and more slows -Inflation-adjusted GDP increased at an annual rate of 2% in the second quarter, half the pace of 2018's second quarter, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first three months of 2019, GDP grew at a 3.1% pace.Today's second-quarter GDP estimate is based on more complete data than was available for the advance numbers issued last month, when GDP was estimated at 2.1%.The change primarily reflected downward revisions to exports, state and local government spending, private inventory investment and residential investment, which were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures.The chart below shows that GDP fell one percentage point from the first quarter and sits nearly two percentage points below the second quarter of 2018. Inflation-adjusted, or real, gross domestic income rose 2.1% in the second quarter, down from an increase of 3.2% in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weighs GDP and GDI, increased 2.1% in the second quarter, falling from 3.2% in the first quarter.The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from state and local government spending, federal government spending and personal consumption expenditures.These were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports and private inventory investment. However, imports increased in percentage.Current-dollar GDP increased 4.6%, or $240.3 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $21.34 trillion. This is up from the first quarter’s 3.9%, or $201.0 billion.The gross domestic price purchase index increased 2.2% in the second quarter, up from an increase of 0.8% in the first quarter. Lastly, personal consumption expenditures increased 2.3%, up from 0.4% last quarter.Here are updates to the p revious estimate:

Q2 GDP Revised Lower To 2.0% Despite Surge In Personal Spending -  There were no surprises in today's first revision of Q2 GDP, which the BEA reported moments ago printed at 2.0% (2.040% to be precise), just as expected, and down modestly from the 2.1% (2.060%) initial estimate; the number was also down from the 3.1% annualized GDP growth in Q1.  The Q2 increase in real GDP reflected an even greater increase in consumer spending and government spending, while inventory investment, exports, housing investment, and business investment decreased. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services that were widespread across major categories. The increase in government spending reflected increases in both federal and state and local government spending. The decrease in inventory investment reflected decreases in manufacturing, retail trade, and wholesale trade industries. Goods led the decrease in exports. Curiously, even as overall GDP growth eased somewhat, personal consumption jumped, rising from 4.3% in the first estimate to 4.7% currently: this was the highest PCE in almost five years, since Q4 2014, and up shaprly from just 1.1% in Q1: As detailed by he BEA, the revision to GDP growth reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, inventory investment, and housing investment. These revisions were partly offset by an upward revision to consumer spending. Broken down by item, the Q2 GDP of 2.04% looked as follows:

• Personal Consumption: 3.10%, up from 2.85% in the first estimate
• Fixed Investment: -0.20%, down from -0.14%
• Change in Private Inventories: -0.91%, down from -0.86%
• Net Exports: -0.72%, down from -0.64%
• Government consumption: 0.77%, down from 0.88%

Inflation remained stable, with the GDP price index rising 2.4% in 2Q, in line with expectations, after rising only 1.1% prior quarter; there was some weakness in core PCE, which rose rose 1.7% in 2Q, missing expectations of a 1.8% increase, after rising 1.1% prior quarter. Finally, the BEA also reported that in Q2, profits increased 5.3 percent at a quarterly rate in the second quarter after decreasing 3.8 percent in the first quarter. Specifically:

• Profits of domestic non-financial corporations increased 4.0 percent after decreasing 9.0 percent.
• Profits of domestic financial corporations increased 1.0 percent after increasing 5.8 percent.
• Profits from the rest of the world increased 11.7 percent after increasing 1.5 percent.

Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: 1.47% Versus the 2.04% Headline Real GDP -The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.0% (2.04% to two decimals), down from 3.1% in Q1. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.47% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale. The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 7.6% below the pre-recession trend. The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions.  The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is 2.04%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at 1.47%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession.

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%   From Merrill Lynch: 3Q GDP tracking rose 0.2pp to 2.1% qoq saar [Aug 29 estimate]   From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimates by two tenths to +2.2% (qoq ar). [Aug 29 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 30 estimate].  And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow:  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on August 30, down from 2.3 percent on August 26. [Aug 30 estimate]    CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.

Wall Street sees elevated recession risk, market woes after US and China stoke trade fears - The reignited trade fight between the U.S. and China elevates the odds of a global recession and market pullback over the next year, according to some of Wall Street’s top economists and market strategists. The global economy would fall into recession six to nine months after the U.S. and China enforce their new round of tariffs, wrote Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Chetan Ahya. “Risks remain skewed towards further escalation at least until material market or economic weakness shows,” Ahya told clients in a note. “Continued trade tensions, combined with reactive monetary and fiscal policy, mean that the risk of non-linear tightening in financial conditions, triggering a global recession, is high and rising.” Angst over the back-and-forth tariff battle between the U.S. and China has been a major driver of business sentiment, with executives expressing concern in earnings calls and surveys alike. But those fears can also have more material impact when c-suite leaders choose to postpone capital investments like the construction of new factories out of fear of supply chain disruption or the imposition of import duties. Stocks rose Monday following a Friday swoon after President Donald Trump stoked trade tensions, a move that sent the Dow down 623 points. The president, in a series of tweets, ordered American companies “to immediately start looking for an alternative to China” and asked “who is our bigger enemy, [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” The trade anxieties peaked following the market’s close, when Trump announced that the U.S. would respond to China’s trade countermeasures by raise tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods to 30% from 25%. Tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese products will also go up to 15% from 10%, he said.

Recession watch: Does anyone know what they’re talking about? -- A RECESSION IS COMING, ACCORDING to every outlet that covers the economy. Finance reporters are watching the trade war between the United States and China. They’re fretting over last week’s 800-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which marked the worst day of 2019. They’re monitoring higher budget deficits and an inverted yield curve. On Monday, the National Association for Business Economics released a report that said a third of economists believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. “Is the US economy nearing a recession?” asked the Associated Press. The New York Times explained “How the Recession of 2020 could happen.” CNBC was coy: “We’re not predicting recession in 2020 but odds are growing.”   “I think the biggest risk here is that we talk ourselves into a downturn and we talk about it so much that we end up with a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Julia Chatterley, an anchor and correspondent for CNN International, says. “I do think there is a tendency, perhaps, for certain aspects of the financial media to be very alarmist.”  Myles Udland, a markets reporter at Yahoo Finance, agrees. “People are weaponizing pretty benign economic data, which is leading to a lot of irresponsible bullshit in the business media world,” he says. “You call up an economist and you ask, ‘Do you think there is going to be a recession?’ And they are going to say something like, ‘It is possible in the next 18 months.’ So your story is, like, economists say it is possible,” he explains. “If enough people just say the word ‘recession,’ then people start getting worried about a recession.” Journalists grow worried, too. “Reporters, just like anybody else, are subject to groupthink,” Lydia DePillis, a trade and economic policy reporter at ProPublica, says. “The public sentiment around recession is influenced by the media, and that’s a very dangerous thing to get wrong.”   “If I could predict the start of a recession, then I probably wouldn’t be a journalist,” Simon Kennedy, the executive editor of Bloomberg Economics, says. “I would be living on an island somewhere and enjoying the wealth of being able to trade markets and making economic forecasts.”

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession by Nouriel Roubini  - There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy. The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when US President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China over technology. In a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides Trap,” China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth. The US has placed the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an “entity list” reserved for foreign companies deemed to pose a national-security threat. And although Huawei has received temporary exemptions allowing it to continue using US components, the Trump administration this week announced that it was adding an additional 46 Huawei affiliates to the list. The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, and a recession triggered by a trade, currency, and tech war would depress energy demand and drive prices lower, America’s confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect. Should that conflict escalate into a military conflict, global oil prices could spike and bring on a recession, as happened during previous Middle East conflagrations in 1973, 1979, and 1990. All three of these potential shocks would have a stagflationary effect, increasing the price of imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technological components, and energy, while reducing output by disrupting global supply chains. Worse, the Sino-American conflict is already fueling a broader process of deglobalization, because countries and firms can no longer count on the long-term stability of these integrated value chains. As trade in goods, services, capital, labor, information, data, and technology becomes increasingly balkanized, global production costs will rise across all industries.

Trump must choose between economy and trade war- Kemp - (Reuters) - The White House is becoming increasingly volatile and erratic in its pronouncements about the economy and trade as the internal contradictions between its policies become obvious. President Donald Trump and his advisers have blamed the Federal Reserve and a range of foreign governments including China and Germany for the evident slowdown in the economy, especially manufacturing, saying that: U.S. interest rates are too high. The U.S. dollar is too strong. Foreign governments are manipulating their currencies to obtain an unfair competitive advantage. Past trade deals were one-sided. In all, China, Germany, Japan, South Korea and a host of other countries have been blamed for trade and financial policies that harm the United States, according to the administration. But more than two years into a bold effort to remake U.S. international policy by using tariffs to increase leverage in trade negotiations, the trade deficit is still growing at an annual rate of 15%. There is no evidence the U.S. currency is significantly overvalued or that currency misalignment is contributing to the deficit (https://tmsnrt.rs/2Zc2SRJ).  The U.S. dollar exchange rate against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies is close to its long-run average, once adjusted for differential inflation rates. The deficit is increasing rapidly because the U.S. economy is growing faster than the economies of its major trading partners. As a result of differential growth rates, domestic demand for imports is growing more quickly than demand for U.S. exports in overseas markets. The administration’s tariff and sanctions policies have made the deficit worse by contributing to a sharp slowdown in growth in China and the rest of Asia and Europe, which is slowing demand for U.S. exports.  The Trump administration is waging a war of attrition against China and other trading partners, and one of the consequences has been to hit domestic growth. By turning the entire U.S. economy into a weapon to achieve trade, diplomatic and security objectives, the administration has ensured domestic firms would be hit in the resulting conflict. Experience over the last quarter century suggests the only reliable way to narrow the trade deficit is to push the U.S. economy into a recession, so the administration should be careful what it wishes for.

The quick and dirty leading indicator watch has been stagnant for 18+ months -   If you want a “quick and dirty” forecast for the economy over the next 4 to 6 months, the easiest approach is to look at stocks (vis the S&P 500 index) and initial jobless claims.  I’ve been noting for awhile that initial claims have gone basically nowhere since February 2018, and this afternoon I was reminded that it was the case for stocks as well. Here’s both (claims are inverted, red). Both are normed to 100 as of the week they started to go sideways:  Both were strongly positive in 2017. But for the last 18-19 months, both have with rare exception oscillated within 5% of that initial point, with the *slightest* of positive trends. Both continue to absolutely shout “SLOWDOWN” but neither points to recession in the immediate future.

 US 30-year bond yield falls to record low under 2% as global recession fears grow - The rate on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond sank to a new all-time low on Wednesday while the U.S. yield curve inverted even further as fixed-income traders continue to bet on tepid inflation and slower growth around the world. The 30-year bond yield dropped to as low as 1.907% early Wednesday morning, breaking its prior all-time low of 1.916% clinched earlier in August. The 30-year rate later moved off those lows to trade at 1.916%, still below yields on U.S. debt of far shorter duration such as 3-month and 1-month bills. The yield curve inversion, meanwhile, continued to worsen on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slumped further below that of the 2-year note — at 1.454% and 1.5%, respectively — after closing inverted for the second day in a row on Tuesday. Yields fall as prices rise. Bond traders consider a 10-year rate below the 2-year yield an notable recession signal, marking an unusual phenomenon as bondholders receive better compensation in the short term. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inversion metric — sank to -54.5 basis points, its lowest level since before the financial crisis. “There’s just a huge Asian bid for any kind of yield,” said Tom di Galoma, head of Treasury trading at Seaport Global Holdings. “It’s kind of my feeling that you just don’t have enough fixed income in the world to actually satisfy the demand. It’s kind of a one-way trade.” “But my feeling is that interest rates are telling you that there’s some very bad news down the road,” he added. “We don’t know what that is, but that’s what’s being signaled to me.”

 Mnuchin Says Issuance Of 50 And 100 Year Treasuries Under Very Serious Consideration - The last time the US was seriously considering issuing ultra-long dated bonds - those with a maturity of 50 and 100 years - was back in late 2016 and early 2017, when yields were near the record lows hit in recent days. As we reported back in November 2016, shortly after Steven Mnuchin was confirmed as US Treasury Secretary, the former Goldman banker proceeded to roil the bond market when he told CNBC he would look at extending the maturity of future Treasury issuance, hinting at 50 and 100 Year bonds, which promptly sent long-term US bond yields surging by the most since the turmoil following Trump’s election victory. "I think interest rates are going to stay relatively low for the next couple of years." Mnuchin told CNBC. “We’ll look at potentially extending the maturity of the debt, because eventually we are going to have higher interest rates, and that’s something that this country is going to need to deal with." Ironically, with that statement, Mnuchin quickly sent yields spiking higher, although courtesy of foreign buyers these were promptly renormalized.  Asked if he would consider maturities of 50 or even 100 years, ultra-long issuance that has become increasingly popular in Europe in recent years as interest rates plunged to record lows as recently as July, Mnuchin said: “We’ll take a look at everything.” Well, it's that time again. As a reminder, two weeks ago, the Treasury’s Office of Debt Management announced it was again conducting a broad outreach to Wall Street to refresh its understanding of market appetite for a potential Treasury ultra-long bond, according to a statement Friday. Specifically, the US Treasury is once again looking at the market interest in 50- or 100-year bonds, although it has not yet reached any decision whether to issue such a product.

Donald Tusk launches scathing attack on Trump and Johnson as world leaders arrive at G7 -- European Council president Donald Tusk launched a scathing attack on Donald Trump and Boris Johnson as world leaders gathered in the French resort of Biarritz for the G7 summit. Condemning The US president's calls for Russia to rejoin the G7, Mr Tusk implied they were motivated by “business calculation”. He went on to warn Mr Johnson that the EU “will not cooperate” on a no-deal Brexit. Ahead of Mr Johnson’s arrival at his first international summit, Mr Tusk suggested he could “go down in history as ‘Mr No Deal’”, denigrating him as “the third British Conservative prime minister with whom I will discuss Brexit”. Mr Johnson is expected to set out his plans for Brexit in talks with Mr Tusk, building on visits in recent days to the leaders of Germany and France. Mr Tusk said: “We are willing to listen to ideas that are operational, realistic and acceptable to all member states including Ireland, if and when the UK government is ready to put them on the table. “The EU was always open to co-operation when David Cameron wanted to avoid Brexit, when Theresa May wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we will also be ready now to hold serious talks with Prime Minister Johnson. “One thing I will not co-operate on is no deal. I still hope that Prime Minster Johnson will not like to go down in history as ‘Mr No Deal’.” The PM plans to use the gathering to push his vision of a post-Brexit UK as an “international, outward-looking, self-confident” country.

With the global economy slowing and the U.S.-China trade war escalating, Trump arrives at G-7 with a list of grievances - WaPo - President Trump arrived at a meeting of the world’s major powers here Saturday amid signs that the economic and political head winds gathering across the globe would be stirred rather than tempered at this year’s Group of Seven summit. Hours before the meetings officially began, European Council President Donald Tusk warned that Trump’s trade wars could tip the world into a global recession. French President Emmanuel Macron surprised Trump with an impromptu lunch and began discussing “a lot of crises” as Trump sat stone-faced. Some Trump administration officials privately griped about the unscheduled meal and the French government’s decision to focus the G-7 on issues such as climate change and inequality instead of trade. While Trump struck a positive tone upon his arrival in Biarritz — tweeting “Big weekend with other world leaders!” — the tension surrounding the meeting was held barely below the surface as anxious diplomats kept close watch on the president’s Twitter account. Some Trump administration officials hinted that the president was prepared to disrupt the meeting’s carefully planned script with his trademark bombast. Trump, who has a track record of crashing into global forums with a torrent of tweets, complaints and bluster, came to Biarritz after spending days airing more grievances than guidance for global powers facing myriad challenges, including intensifying trade wars and a potential global recession. During a special meeting on Sunday about the state of the global economy, requested by the White House, Trump will have an opportunity to set the tone for the gathering. While Macron has sought to organize the G-7 around issues such as global inequality and development in Africa, Trump plans to use the gathering to press his “America First” agenda on trade and economic growth, officials said. On Saturday, Trump used his brief public remarks to praise the “perfect” weather and predict that Macron and other world leaders “will accomplish a lot.” But privately, some of his advisers were grumbling over the direction the summit was taking before it even officially began. Other U.S. officials, however, tried to tamp down the idea tensions were rising, saying talks so far had been going well.

Trump caught off guard as Iran’s Zarif visits G7 summit town (Reuters) - Iran’s foreign minister paid a visit to a G7 summit in France on Sunday, an unexpected twist to a meeting already troubled by differences between U.S. President Donald Trump and Western allies over a raft of issues, including Iran. A White House official said France’s invitation to Mohammad Javad Zarif for talks on the sidelines of the gathering in the southwestern beachside town of Biarritz was “a surprise”. Zarif met his French counterpart to assess what conditions could lead to a de-escalation of tensions between Tehran and Washington, a French official said. Zarif also saw French President Emmanuel Macron during his brief stay, but the White House official said the Iranian minister did not meet any U.S. officials before he flew out of Biarritz airport.European leaders have struggled to calm a deepening confrontation between Iran and the United States since Trump pulled his country out of Iran’s internationally brokered 2015 nuclear deal last year and reimposed sanctions on the Iranian economy. Earlier on Sunday, Trump appeared to brush aside French efforts to mediate with Iran, saying that while he was happy for Paris to reach out to Tehran he would carry on with his own initiatives.

Trump officials voice anger at G7 focus on ‘niche’ issues such as climate change  - Senior aides in Donald Trump’s entourage have accused the G7 host and French president, Emmanuel Macron, of seeking to embarrass his US counterpart by making the summit focus on “niche issues” such as climate change, according to multiple US media reports.Macron’s plan to heal divisions among G7 leaders in Biarritz this weekend apparently did not factor in the need to keep Trump’s aides happy too, a group that began briefing against him within hours of Trump’s arrival. The spark for the fuse appeared to be lunch. Macron whisked the US president away for an impromptu meal for two on an oceanfront terrace at the Hotel du Palais. Trump initially appeared frosty but later called it “the best meeting we have yet had”. Senior administration officials quoted by the New York Times among others were not so sure, complaining the summit had moved from core issues such as global economics and trade to “niche issues” such as climate change, gender equality and development in Africa. The topics were chosen to appeal to Macron supporters, and even to embarrass Trump, who pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord, they said, as protesters marched the streets of the French city calling for action to tackle the fires ravaging the Amazon rainforest. “It’s our view that with France trying to drive these other issues outside of global economics, national security and trade, they’re trying to fracture the G7,” one official told White House reporter Gabby Orr. Days earlier, Larry Kudlow, the director of the White House’s national economic council, criticised Macron’s decision to ditch the usual consensus communique at the end of the summit in favour of “coalitions’ of like-minded states. “These coalitions produce politically correct bromides such as calls to ban everything from straws to fossil fuels,” he said in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece.

‘Sorry, it’s the way I negotiate’: Trump confounds the world at wild G-7 — The divisions were laid bare on the first day, when President Donald Trump insisted to U.S. allies at an opening dinner for the G-7 summit that Russia belongs back in the elite group of leading nations and then bluntly informed his French counterpart they do not see eye-to-eye on Iran. But by the end of Day Three, Trump was having a kumbaya moment in public. “There’s been no fights or arguments. No anything. There’s been great unity here. The papers haven’t reported how great it’s been,” he told reporters at his midday meeting Monday with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That was the pattern Trump followed for most of his three-day visit to southwestern France, where only the coastal winds rivaled the breakneck pace of vague and vacillating statements on pressing issues including North Korea, Iran, the environment and trade. The president at times sought to placate allies with assurances that he would work with them to broker trade deals or find areas of compromise despite firmly established differences. It was typical Trump on display on the world stage, refusing to be boxed in by anyone on anything. The president’s meandering statements and conflicting remarks left aides and allies alike guessing at his intended course of action — and his critics reviving questions about his fitness for office. “Sorry, it’s the way I negotiate,” Trump shot back at a reporter during Monday’s press conference when questioned about whether there’s an actual strategy behind his constant back-and-forth on his positions regarding trade with China. “It has done very well for me over the years,” Trump said. “It’s doing even better for the country.”

Divisions between major powers widen at G7 summit - The G7 meeting held in France over the weekend marks another stage in the breakdown of the post-war capitalist order with the major imperialist powers becoming embroiled in a series of conflicts of the kind that led to the outbreak of World War II eighty years ago. The G7 was set up in 1975 as a mechanism to develop international economic collaboration and coordination in the face of what was, to that point, the most serious recession in the global capitalist economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Today, in the midst of a very much more serious situation, as the global economy is ripped apart by deepening trade war, growing signs of recession, amid rising concerns over the instability of the international financial system, the very discussion of these issues has become the focus of conflict. Before the meeting had even begun, officials of the Trump administration issued criticisms of the agenda drawn up by French President Emmanuel Macron as the host of this year’s gathering. They said it had been devised to focus on “niche issues” such as climate change and developments in Africa in order to “fracture the G7,” isolate the US and appeal to Macron’s electoral base. In a piece published in the Wall Street Journal, the director of the White House National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, said a formal session on the economy and trade had only been included at the last minute at the request of the US and the agenda drawn up by Macron had been designed to produce “politically correct bromides.” Such is the level of tensions, Macron declared in the lead-up to the summit, that the practice of issuing a formal communiqué summing up the discussion would be abandoned because no one took any notice of them and they were only studied to determine the points of difference. As he was preparing his departure for the summit, Trump escalated those tensions with the announcement that his administration would increase tariffs against China and that “great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.” The “order” was largely dismissed as an example of overreach by the president and laughed off in the American media and sections of the political establishment because it was claimed he did not have the power to enforce such a directive which could only be employed under conditions of war. Trump responded that he did hold such power. “For all the Fake News Reporters that don’t have a clue as to what the law is relative to Presidential powers, China etc., try looking at the [International] Economic Powers Act [IEEPA] of 1977. Case closed,” he tweeted.

Trump promises ‘very big trade deal’ with Britain post-Brexit - President Trump on Sunday promised a “very big trade deal” with a post-Brexit United Kingdom after meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit. Trump also described Johnson as “the right man for the job” to deliver Brexit in remarks to reporters following the leaders' breakfast meeting at the summit Biarritz, France. The face-to-face meeting marked the first between the two since Johnson took over as U.K. prime minister from Theresa May in July. Johnson has said he plans to withdraw the U.K. from the European Union by the deadline at the end of October, but it remains unclear exactly how it will happen. Both leaders on Sunday expressed optimism about the prospect of a bilateral trade deal between the United States and U.K. post-Brexit, though Johnson acknowledged there would be “tough talks” ahead. “We're having very good trade talks between the U.K. and ourselves. We're going to do a very big trade deal — bigger than we've ever had with the U.K.,” Trump told reporters. “At some point, they won't have the obstacle of — they won't have the anchor around their ankle because that's what they had,” Trump said, referring to the EU. “So, we're going to have some very good trade talks and big numbers.” Trump predicted the two countries would be able to agree to a deal on trade “pretty quickly.” Johnson said he wouldn’t “dissent” from Trump’s remarks but noted that trade negotiations in the past have proved difficult. “I have memories of American trade negotiations in the past, and I have a formidable respect for U.S. trade negotiations. And I know that there will be some tough talks ahead because, at the moment, you know, we still don't — I don’t think we sell a single joint of British lamb to the United States. We don't sell any beef. We don't sell any pork pies,” Johnson said. “And there are clearly huge opportunities for the U.K. to penetrate the American market in the way that we currently don't. And we're very interested to talk about that with you,” he said.

'He was outsmarted': Trump mocks Obama on world stage - President Donald Trump on Monday used the global stage of the G-7 conference to assert former President Barack Obama was “outsmarted” and embarrassed by Russian President Vladimir Putin — a stinging rebuke of his predecessor before an international audience. Answering reporters’ questions at a news conference in Biarritz, France, Trump claimed Obama moved to oust Russia from what was the Group of Eight after he reneged on a 2012 threat of military force against Syria for perpetrating chemical weapons attacks. Trump alleged Obama was embarrassed when Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine — the official justification for Russia’s suspension from the G-8 in 2014. “President Obama was not happy that this happened because it was embarrassing to him, right? It was very embarrassing to him, and he wanted Russia to be out of what was called the G-8,” Trump said. “And that was his determination. He was outsmarted by Putin. He was outsmarted.” Spokespeople for Obama's post-presidential office declined to comment on Trump's statements.

At the G7, Trump Is One of the Popular Ones -  Donald Trump is an unpopular president. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average as of Friday afternoon, only 43.3% of Americans approve of his performance. FiveThirtyEight, which weights polls by quality, sample size and partisan lean, puts the average at 41.6%. But as the president meets with leaders of the other G7 countries in the French resort city of Biarritz this weekend, he can take solace in the fact that he’s more popular than almost all of his peers. The lone exception seems to be Japanese premier Shinzo Abe, whose cabinet’s approval rating is 48.8% (to only 35% disapproval) in the Japan Political Pulse poll aggregator maintained by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. Only 32% of Germans polled for broadcaster ARD a few weeks ago said they were satisfied with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approval rating was 41% in onerecent poll and 39% in another (and in the second poll, by Ipsos, only 33% agreed that he “has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected”). In the U.K., only 31% have a positive opinion of brand-new Prime Minister Boris Johnson, according to YouGov. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte just resigned, so while he remains in office until a new government is formed and the current governing coalition still has a majority in polls, I don’t think he can really be counted as riding on a wave of approval. Then there is French President Emmanuel Macron, the one other more or less directly elected head of state (as opposed to leader of a parliamentary government) coming to Biarritz. In so many ways, he’s the diametric opposite of Trump: young, cosmopolitan, well-spoken, technocratic. He’s the least popular of the lot, with a 28% approval rating in the most recent poll listed by the diligent editors of the “Opinion polling on the Emmanuel Macron presidency” Wikipedia page and 22% percent in the one before that.

 House Judiciary Committee Launches Probe Into Plan To Host G-7 At Trump's Miami Resort - House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler probably didn't need an excuse to launch yet another investigation into President Trump and his personal business (one would think he'd be busy trying to force Capital One and Deutsche Bank to hand over his tax returns), yet it appears he's found one. The House Judiciary Committee has decided to investigate Trump for suggesting that next year's G-7 summit be held at the Trump Organization's golf club in Doral. In a statement released Wednesday afternoon, Nadler and Rep. Steve Cohen, the chairman of the Subcommittee on Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, claimed that the president's financial interests were "clearly shaping decisions about official US government activities" that "this is precisely the type of risk that the Constitution's Emoluments clauses were intended to prevent."Trump's remarks about possibly holding next year's summit at Doral were only the "latest in a troubling pattern of corruption and self-dealing by the President," they said, adding that the mere suggestion of hosting the summit at Doral "implicates both the foreign and domestic Emoluments Clauses" because "it would entail both foreign and US government spending to benefit the president...the latter potentially including both federal and state expenditures."Moreover, the Doral "decision" reflects "perhaps the first publicly known instance in which foreign governments would be required to pay President Trump's privately owned businesses" to conduct business with the US. The committee is already investigating other instances of "public corruption" and "abuses of power" by the president. Read the full statement below:

Iran tells US to take ‘first step’, end sanctions (AFP) - President Hassan Rouhani Tuesday told the United States to "take the first step" by lifting all sanctions against Iran, a day after US President Donald Trump said he was open to meeting. "The step is to retreat from sanctions. You must retreat from all illegal, unjust and wrong sanctions against the nation of Iran," Rouhani said in a speech aired live on state television. He said "the key for positive change is in the hands of Washington", because Iran had already ruled out ever doing what worries the US the most -- building an atomic bomb. "If honestly this is your only concern, this concern has already been removed" through a fatwa issued by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he said. Khamenei is said to have issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons in 2003 and has reiterated it several times since. "So take the first step. Without this step, this lock will not be unlocked," Rouhani said at a Tehran event marking the start of construction at a housing project. The US unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 multilateral nuclear deal in May last year and subsequently reimposed biting sanctions.

Iran Missiles Non-Negotiable - Tehran Reject's Macron Proposal For Trump Meeting  -Iran's PressTV reports that leaders in Tehran have rejected French President Macron's offer to mediate new negotiations with the US over the Islamic Republic's missile program, saying this is "non-negotiable". Macron and Trump both appeared optimistic at a closing G7 summit press conference that such a direct meeting with Iran's President Rouhani could happen "within weeks". Though The Washington Post hours after those statements cited a source saying Rouhani was "open" to such renewed talks, it now appears Iran has slammed the door shut. PressTV cited a government source who said Iranian officials had already informed Macron that "new negotiations" - especially direct talks with Trump - remain contingent upon Washington returning to the nuclear deal, or JCPOA. Reporter to Trump: Macron said he'd like to see talks between you and Rouhani within weeks. Does that seem realistic? "It does," Trump replied. "I think Iran wants to get this situation straightened out. Now is that based on fact or based on gut? It's based on gut" pic.twitter.com/gpKTQlJ6tk — POLITICO (@politico) August 26, 2019However, there could be a small opening regarding Macron's idea of a $15BN credit line should Iran refrain from breaching uranium enrichment caps under the terms of the JCPOA:Reacting to the French president’s idea of establishing a $15 billion credit line for Iran in a trade mechanism to help Tehran conduct business, the source told Press TV that Iran had responded by saying that it would consider reversing its decision to scale back some of its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal if the line is established.Iran has vowed repeatedly that it would never bow to Washington pressures and threats, stressing that Trump's "talk with me or else..." ultimatum won't work.

Israelis & Saudis Trying To Preempt Trump Bid For Meeting With Rouhani - President Trump has made it less and less a secret that he is pushing for new talks with Iran to "negotiate a better deal" after previously pulling out of the JCPOA. He and French President Emmanuel Macron at the close of the G7 on Monday actually spoke as if a potential meeting with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani would be "soon" in the works.   Though The Washington Post hours after those statements cited a source saying Rouhani was "open" to such renewed talks, Tehran hours later poured cold water over the prospect by saying its ballistic missile program is "non-negotiable" and that face-to-face talks are conditioned on the White House biding by its prior commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal; however, Iranian officials were said to have reacted positively to Macron's idea of a $15BN credit line should Iran refrain from breaching uranium enrichment caps under the prior terms of the JCPOA.  Now with media speculation rampant that Rouhani and Trump might sit down at the same table, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are reportedly stepping up efforts to preempt such a dialogue.   Israeli press and officials are expressing extreme concern, per a recent Haaretz article:   The fears in Israel, which for now are only being expressed in completely off-the-record conversations, are that Trump, eager to make his mark on world affairs and prove he can achieve a better deal than his predecessor, will find himself in a room with negotiators much wilier and more knowledgeable on the issues than he is. Convinced that he is the grand master of the art of the deal, Trump could swiftly come to an agreement with the Iranians that may sound preferable to him, but in reality will be much worse. Israel's intelligence and defense community are said to be strongly lobbying against such a renewed Trump engagement with Tehran after the president told reporters there's “a really good chance” the meeting would happen.

As Trump flip-flops on Iran talks, the reality is that the ‘crazed’ rogue leader now sits in Washington not Tehran - Robert Fisk - Just when we thought we were the good guys and the Iranians were the bad guys, here comes the ghostly, hopeless possibility of a Trump-Rouhani summit to remind us that the apparent lunatic is the US president and the rational, sane leader who is supposed to talk to him is the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. All these shenanigans are fantasy, of course – like the “imminent” war between America and Iran – of which more later. As for the Israelis, they don’t want the man who thinks he might be “King of Israel” talking to the Hitlerite Persians. They suddenly sprayed Iran’s local Middle East proxies with drone-fired rockets – in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – just in case the wretched, financially broken and inflation-doomed Iranians were tempted to chat to the crackpot in the White House. But the Israelis wasted their ammunition. Rouhani is not mad. America has to drop its sanctions against Iran if Trump wants to talk, he said. It still amazes me that we have to take all this stuff at face value. No sooner had Trump waffled on about Rouhani being “the great negotiator” than we saw all the White House correspondents dutifully taking this nonsense down in their notebooks – as if the American president was presidential, as if the old dream-bag was real, as if what he was saying had the slightest bearing on reality. And when Rouhani made it clear that he was not interested in “photo-ops” – an obvious allusion to the pictures of Trump and Little Rocket Man – what did the po-faced Washington Post tell us in its subsequent report? Why, that Rouhani had “dashed hopes of a potential meeting with his US counterpart”. Ye Gods! What “hopes” do they still have in their homegrown crackpot president after these two and a half years of his threats and lies and racism? Have they learned nothing? It’s as if – for the American media – Trump is unhinged in Washington but a Kissinger the moment he lands in Biarritz (or London or Riyadh or Panmunjom or a Scottish golf course, or perhaps, one day, Greenland). And Rouhani – who may be a “great negotiator” but is also a very ruthless man – is therefore supposed to play the role of Iran’s previous president, the raving, crazed, Holocaust-denying Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Trump says the US wasn’t involved in apparent launch pad explosion in Iran — President Donald Trump on Friday insisted that the U.S. had nothing to do with the apparent launch pad explosion of an Iranian rocket. Trump’s denial also included what looked to be an aerial photograph of the launch site, complete with graphics and annotations describing the scene. A U.S. defense official told CNBC that the picture in Trump’s tweet, which appeared to be a snapshot of a physical copy of the satellite image, was included in a Friday intelligence briefing. Experts told CNBC that the shot was likely never meant for public view. “The United States of America was not involved in the catastrophic accident during final launch preparations for the Safir SLV Launch at Semnan Launch Site One in Iran,” Trump said in a tweet Friday afternoon. “I wish Iran best wishes and good luck in determining what happened at Site One,” he added.

Is war with Iran on the horizon?  -- "Trump talks, Netanyahu acts and Iran loses its 'strategic depth'," the newspaper Al Sharq al Awsat wrote at the end of July. ʹStrategic depth' is a paraphrase for a buffer of Iranian allies in Syria, Iraq and southern Lebanon. The satisfaction in these lines is unmistakable. The Arabic daily newspaper published in London belongs to the Saudi royal family. It appears in almost all Arab capitals and is considered influential and opinion-forming. The facts speak for Al Sharq al Awsat. In July, Israel bombed Iranian targets in Iraq with its modern F-35i stealth jet fighters, the newspaper reports. The attacks were aimed at bases of the Shia Hashd Al Shaabi militias, who have close ties with Iran. The first attack took place on the night of 19 July and was directed against a base in Amerli in the Iraqi province of Saladin. Ten days later, a second Israeli attack followed, this time bombing the Ashraf base, 90 kilometres northeast of Baghdad and only 80 kilometres from the Iranian border. "Diplomatic sources" confirmed this, Al Sharq al Awsat wrote. Two days after this report, other Arab media also wrote about the incident and gave details of the objectives of the nightly Israeli air operations. The targets were apparently Iranian advisers at the bases as well as large camps with ballistic missiles that had just arrived from Iran. The Israel Times and other Israeli media published the news, but added that, as always, there was no official confirmation. There was talk of 40 Iranian military experts killed and dozens of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters injured, as well as the destruction of numerous missiles. Several Israeli media outlets posited that with these air raids, Israel had entered a new phase of anti-Iranian operations. Whereas Israeli planes and missiles have targeted Iranian targets in Syria on an almost regular basis in the past, Iraq had now become the target and that not far from the Iranian border, wrote the Israeli newspaper Haaretz on 31 July.

Trump plans to withdraw over 5,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan — President Donald Trump said Thursday the U.S. plans to withdraw more than 5,000 American troops from Afghanistan and then will determine further drawdowns in the longest war in American history. Trump’s comment comes as a U.S. envoy is in his ninth round of talks with the Taliban to find a resolution to the nearly 18-year-old war. The president, who campaigned on ending the war, said the U.S. was “getting close” to making a deal, but that the outcome of the U.S.-Taliban talks remained uncertain. “Who knows if it’s going to happen,” Trump told Fox News Radio’s “The Brian Kilmeade Show.” Trump did not offer a timeline for withdrawing troops. The Pentagon has been developing plans to withdraw as many as half of the 14,000 U.S. troops still there, but the Taliban want all U.S. and NATO forces withdrawn. “We’re going down to 8,600 (troops) and then we’ll make a determination from there,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. is going to have a “high intelligence” presence in Afghanistan going forward. Reducing the U.S. troop level to 8,600 would bring the total down to about where it was when Trump took office in January 2017. According to the NATO/Resolute Support mission, the U.S. had 9,000 troops in Afghanistan in 2016, during the Obama administration, and 8,000 in 2017.

 Is Tulsi Gabbard Right About Syria? She’s Not Wrong. – Is Tulsi Gabbard an “apologist” for the Syrian regime? How about a “stooge” of the Kremlin? These are just some of the questions being asked of the congresswoman from Hawaii as she bids to become the Democratic nominee for president, but they are entirely the wrong ones. Media outlets and Gabbard’s political rivals should, instead, consider the arguments that have led this veteran of the Iraq War to recommend against removing Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from power. Better yet, they could explain how an alternative set of policies would promote U.S. interests and improve the lot of the long-suffering Syrian people. Of course, it is fair to ask any presidential hopeful why they would agree to meet with a murderous despot like Assad, as Gabbard did in January 2017. It is also reasonable to question whether Gabbard’s rejection of military interventions as a tool of statecraft is the right approach to U.S. foreign policy (she once tried to legislate against regime change in Syria). But it is unhelpful at best to insinuate that Gabbard’s foreign-policy positions are cynical or anti-American. They are neither.Gabbard’s approach to Syria is built upon two core beliefs about U.S. foreign policy. First, the United States must leave behind its recent history of engineering the downfall of foreign regimes. Second, the U.S. military’s top priority should be to eliminate terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al Qaeda. From these two premises, a third foundation of Gabbard’s foreign policy can be inferred: that the United States must sometimes tolerate the existence of brutal foreign governments, especially if they share a common interest in fighting the same terrorist groups as America. None of these are radical assumptions about American foreign policy. Indeed, Gabbard’s anti-interventionism is tightly aligned with the prevailing zeitgeist in U.S. politics. According to polling data, voters today are opposed to U.S. involvement in Yemen, supportive of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, and roughly evenly split on the question of whether the United States should cease operations in Syria. Military veterans are among those most critical of the so-called “forever wars” in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Democrats can’t just unwind Trump’s foreign policy - Democrats running to replace Donald Trump are vowing to wipe away much of the president’s foreign policy legacy. It might already be too late. Through executive orders, regulatory changes, political maneuvers and sometimes mere neglect, Trump has overseen major, possibly permanent, shifts in U.S. foreign policy that will be on full display this weekend in France as the president meets with other world leaders at the Group of Seven summit. Thanks to Trump, current and former officials say, Palestinians may never get a state of their own, Iran may shun diplomacy with Washington for the foreseeable future and U.S. allies may forever be reluctant to trust their American counterparts. Relations with China, the effects of climate change and ending nuclear proliferation are among other challenges a future president may find harder to tackle in a post-Trump world. It doesn’t help that U.S. foreign policy is increasingly falling prey to partisan fighting in Washington. A Democratic president focused on reversing Trump’s legacy — the same way Trump has tried to erase Barack Obama's legacy — runs the risk of feeding the perception that U.S. foreign policy will not remain stable over time. “There is a hunger for the U.S. to get back to its traditional role on the world stage,” said Jeff Prescott, a former senior National Security Council official in the Obama administration. “But after Trump, many of our international partners are going to step back and ask whether signing up with us is going to be a long-term proposition.” Trump’s defenders view the situation differently. They argue that Trump has injected a much-needed dose of truth into the foreign policy conversation, especially on problems that have festered for decades, such as North Korea’s nuclear program. They assert that Trump’s pressure on allies is often aimed at ultimately making them stronger. And while they agree Trump’s rhetoric can go too far, they say his policies are not entirely unconventional. “It’s just a lot about recognizing reality and leveling with the American people,”

Trump sparks confusion before doubling down on China tariffs -President Donald Trump doubled down Sunday on his hard line against China after sowing confusion with statements that he might be willing to soften a trade war G7 partners fear threatens the world economy. At the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, Trump announced a major trade deal with Japan and promised more of the same with Britain, once Brexit is done. But the positives were overshadowed by a mix-up over his apparent expression of regret for the latest escalation in the US-China dispute. "I have second thoughts about everything," he conceded to reporters when asked if he regretted his decision on Friday to ramp up tariffs on all Chinese imports, worth some $550 billion, in retaliation for Beijing's earlier hike of levies on US goods. Just hours later, top White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham issued a statement insisting that Trump meant completely the opposite. "The president was asked if he had 'any second thought on escalating the trade war with China'. His answer has been greatly misinterpreted," she said. "President Trump responded in the affirmative -- because he regrets not raising the tariffs higher." Senior US economy adviser Larry Kudlow offered a different spin: "He didn't quite hear the question this morning." European leaders pressured Trump to back off what he describes as a historic, all-or-nothing struggle to shift China from decades of rampant intellectual property theft and other unfair trade practices. Trump is also embroiled in threats of a trade war with France and the European Union. The latest to voice concern was British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who told Trump at a Sunday breakfast meeting that "we don't like tariffs on the whole". "We are in favour of trade peace," he said. On Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron called the trade tensions "bad for everyone". "We have to achieve some form of de-escalation, stabilise things, and avoid this trade war that is taking place all over," he said. Despite clear signs to the contrary, Trump insisted that there was no friction among his close allies. "I think they respect the trade war. It has to happen," Trump told reporters. - Deals with friends - Trump is using the G7 to showcase what he says if the flip side of his tariff diplomacy: big trade deals.

Trump Says China Badly Wants Deal, U.S. Open to Calm Negotiation - U.S. President Donald Trump said China wants to make a deal as he praised comments by the country’s chief negotiator for trade, offering a more conciliatory tone after escalating tensions in recent days. “They want to make a deal very badly,” Trump said during a press conference from the Group of Seven meeting in Biarritz, France. “The tariffs have hit them very hard.” Trump also noted remarks made earlier Monday by China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He. “He wants to see a deal made, he wants it to be made under calm conditions,” Trump said. “He used the word ‘calm,’ I agree with him.” U.S. stocks rallied Monday after optimistic remarks at the G-7 from Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron, who said he saw a willingness for a U.S.-China trade deal. The dollar strengthened and 10-year Treasury yields held close to a three-year low. Liu said at the opening ceremony of the 2019 Smart China Expo in Chongqing: “We are willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude,” according to a Caixin report. “We firmly oppose the escalation of the trade war,” he said, adding that it “is not conducive to China, the U.S. and the interests of people all over the world.” While Trump mostly struck a conciliatory tone in his press conference, he also insisted that any deal would have to address the imbalance in trade. If it didn’t, he said, the U.S. would stop doing business with China. “This has to be a deal that’s better for us,” he told reporters. “And if it’s not better I don’t want to do business.”

Chinese newspaper editor disputes Trump’s trade war claims: ‘China didn’t change its position’ - President Donald Trump said China is ready to come back to the negotiating table, but one Chinese insider is calling Trump’s bluff, saying, “China didn’t change its position.” Hu Xijin is editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid under the People’s Daily, which is the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China. His Twitter account has been followed by many Wall Street traders and market participants for insight on the trade war. His comment came after Trump said at the G-7 summit in France that China expressed its desire for a deal in a recent call. “China called last night our top trade people and said, ‘Let’s get back to the table,’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it,” Trump said. Hu said the two sides did not hold phone talks recently, adding that Trump is exaggerating the significance of the “technical level” contacts. “The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested,” he said in a tweet Monday. “China won’t cave to U.S. pressure.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang also said he was not aware that a phone call between the two sides had taken place.

Cramer warns investors that believing China over Trump on trade is dangerous and costly - Investors should be wary when it comes to trusting China over President Donald Trump, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday. “I’m aghast we trust the People’s Republic of China more than we trust the White House,” Cramer said on “Squawk Box.” “The predominance of coverage this morning is that the president is lying. I’m not willing to say that he’s lying. We can doubt him, but in the end we’re doubting a guy that didn’t want the market to crash.” Cramer was referring to Trump’s comments at the G-7 summit Monday in France, where he said Beijing is ready to reenter negotiations and begin serious talks. “China called last night our top trade people and said ‘let’s get back to the table’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something,” Trump told reporters. At a later press event, Trump said he didn’t want to talk about phone calls, saying that talks between U.S. and Chinese trade officials have been taking place at the highest levels. However, the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid controlled by the Communist Party of China, tweeted that Trump was “exaggerating.” “The two sides have been keeping contact at technical level, it doesn’t have significance that President Trump suggested,” he said in a tweet Monday. “China won’t cave to U.S. pressure.”

Bibles but Not Textbooks: Trump’s Tariff Exemptions Pick Winners and Losers -President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade brinksmanship has split the American economy into new castes of winners and losers, with few consistent criteria defining who ends up in which group — as illustrated by the $2 billion in products that won exemptions last week from a new round of China tariffs.Bibles and other religious texts got a pass after U.S. publishers and Christian groups argued that tariffs would infringe upon the freedom to worship around the globe.Salmon and cod — caught in Alaska and processed in China — won an exemption after the state’s Republican senators successfully argued that tariffs would pose an “economic security” risk to Alaska’s fishing industry.Chemicals used in fracking escaped tariffs after the oil and gas industry argued that taxing them would threaten America’s “energy dominance.”The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative carved out those products from an original list of $300 billion based on what it called “health, safety, national security and other factors.” About half of the original list was delayed until December in order to get past the holiday season, but after that, importers will pay 10% of the value of whatever they bring in from China. Although the companies that won relief may not be markedly different than the interests favored by other Republican administrations, this cycle of tariffs and exemptions is happening faster and at a larger scale than any remotely similar exercise in the past, giving far more companies reason to protest.

China Responds To Trump's "Barbaric" Tariffs: Vows To Fight "Until The End" And Have "The Last Laugh" - After Friday's blitz of reciprocal trade war escalations, which saw a furious Trump slam the two "enemies of the state", Fed Chair Powell and China president Xi, following China's widely expected tariff hike retaliation and Powell's uneventful Jackson Hole speech, and further raise tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports after stocks suffered another major selloff, we said that the next steps were clear. Sure enough, in response China said it would continue fighting the trade war with the US "until the end" as tit-for-tat escalation is now virtually assured with no end in sight. On Saturday, China's commerce ministry issued a statement calling on Washington not to "misjudge the situation and underestimate the determination of Chinese people" after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. "The US should immediately stop its wrong action, or it will have to bear all consequences,” the statement said. At the same time, a sharply worded commentary in the official party mouthpiece, People’s Daily, said China had the strength to continue the dispute and accused Washington of sacrificing the interests of its own people. Published under the pseudonym “Wuyuehe”, the piece described the latest tariff measures by the US as “barbaric”. The op-ed said China’s own tariffs on $75 billion worth of American products, announced late on Friday, were a response to America’s unilateral escalation of the trade conflict, and vowed that China was determined to fight back “until the end”. “China’s will to defend the core interests of the country and the fundamental interests of the people is indestructible, and will not fear any challenge,” the author wrote, promising that "history will prove that the side on the path of fairness and justice will have the last laugh." Predictably, China also took offense by Trump's characterization of Chinese President Xi Jinping as an "enemy" and his "order" to American companies "to immediately start looking for an alternative to China." 

Business Groups Warn of Peril as Trump’s Trade War Spirals - NYT - The latest whipsawing escalations in the United States’ trade war with China prompted a wide array of business organizations to warn over the weekend that American consumers and workers would soon be caught in the crossfire. It is now looking increasingly likely that few large American companies will be able to sidestep the toll exacted by the new tit-for-tat tariffs that China and President Trump rolled out on Friday. Many business leaders have kept a low profile as the trade war intensified, for fear of attracting President Trump’s ire, and in the hope that the threats of tariffs could be negotiating tactics that will lead to some sort of trade agreement. But with several tariffs already in place, and President Trump staking out an even more aggressive stance on Friday, many industries are reckoning with just how serious the situation has become. Joshua Bolten, the president and chief executive of the Business Roundtable, an organization representing the leaders of the largest American companies, said on Sunday that many C.E.O.s were already “poised right on top of the brake.” “The risk is that everybody’s going to slam on the brake, and that would be a disaster,” Mr. Bolten said on “Face the Nation” on CBS. President Trump’s latest moves, Mr. Bolten said, could “disrupt trade and commerce in a way that would cause huge damage — not just to the Chinese economy, but to the global economy and the U.S. economy.” The American manufacturing sector shrank in August for the first time since 2009.CreditRoss Mantle for The New York Times The American economy has so far been relatively resilient as the two sides battle. But several recent signs suggest that the tit-for-tat is beginning to broadly hit American businesses. The American manufacturing sector, for instance, shrank in August for the first time since 2009, according to data released last week from the research group IHS Markit. “America’s manufacturing workers will bear the brunt of these retaliatory tariffs, which will make it even harder to sell the products they make to customers in China,” the president and chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, Jay Timmons, wrote on Twitter on Friday.

Trump’s China Trade War Gaslighting: Will There Evah Be a Deal?  - Yves Smith - Trump has been up to what he seems to like to do best: whipsawing those who might be affected by his plans. On Friday, he put Mr. Market and huge swathes of Corporate America in a tizzy by retaliating against China’s tariff increases. China announced that it would impose new tariffs on $75 billion of US goods and the restart of tariffs on autos and auto parts. Trump tweeted that he would increase tariffs on Chinese goods already subject to tariffs: the $250 billion at 25% would go to 30% on October 1and the $300 billion at 10% would go to 15% in phases, on September 1 and December 1. Trump also “hereby ordered” US companies to pull out of China, suggesting that he’d rely on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. Then, as most of you have likely heard, Trump made remarks at the G-7 summit that we widely interpreted as an indicator that he’d back off again, by admitting to regrets about how the trade spat was going. When the press took up that line, Trump doubled down, with the White House releasing a statement that Trump’s sole regret was not raising tariffs higher. Needless to say, the all-too-typical Trump to-ing and fro-ing made for an easy target. From the Washington Post: Former treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, a veteran of the Clinton and Obama administrations, said the White House’s conflicting statements were just the latest in a string of mixed messages that had made it impossible for people to understand its agenda. “Deeply misguided policy and strategy has been joined for some time by dubious negotiating tactics, with promises not kept and threats not carried out on a regular basis,” Summers said in an interview. “We are at a new stage now with very erratic presidential behavior and frequent denials of obvious reality. I know of no U.S. historical precedent.” And despite rousing himself to make a show of his resolve, the Administration did back down on one part of Trump’s Friday missives, that of “ordering” US companies to get out of Dodge, um, China. From the Wall Street Journal: Aides to President Trump said Sunday he has no plans to invoke emergency powers and force companies to relocate operations from China… “What he is suggesting to American businesses,” [economic adviser] Mr. [Larry] Kudlow said, is that “you ought to think about moving your operations and your supply chains away from China and secondly, we’d like you to come back home.”…

Repeat After Me: There Will be No US-China Trade Deal. I hate to say we told you so, but for nearly a year, WE TOLD YOU SO.  Since October, 2018 we have been all but screaming at anyone and everyone who has product made in China and sold into the United States to get out of China fast, if at all possible. We say this and we set out the below timeline to prove this not so much to show that we have been right all along, but to try to convince you that we are right when we now say there will be no resolution to the US-China trade war for a very long time and you need to act accordingly.The below is our timeline/proof of our having predicted a straight-line decline in US-China trade relations…But what should you make of President Trump’s ordering US companies to immediately start looking for an alternative to China? He can’t really do that, can he? No, but in many respects this is exactly what Trump has been doing since the U.S.-China trade war began. Trump cannot literally require American companies to pull out of China, but he can and has made it so difficult that they all but have to leave China. And this is what most of the international lawyers and international trade lawyers at my firm have come to believe has been Trump’s plan all along. Every step of the way, Trump has made it all but impossible for China to make a trade deal with the United States, which is why this blog has been consistently clear that there will be no trade deal between the United States and China. If the US-China trade war/cold war were really about trade imbalances, it would have ended long ago with China buying more soybeans and Boeing airplanes from the United States. But from the very beginning, the U.S. has demanded China stop stealing IP and open its markets for foreign companies, and there is just no way China will agree to either of these things. Lead negotiator Robert Lighthizer is without a doubt smart enough to have known this all along. All this leads us to believe that the U.S. plan has always been to force a slow decoupling of the U.S. and China and then work to convince the rest of the democratic world (the EU, Australia, Canada, Latin America, Japan, etc.) to decouple from China, as well. In June, in Does China WANT a Second Decoupling? The Chinese Texts Say That it Does we wrote of how China wants this decoupling, as well. This latest Trump “order” does not have the force of law, so in that respect it is not an order at all. But in most other respects it is. This order indicates Trump’s passionate desire to rid the United States of what he sees as the China scourge. More importantly, it is yet another clear signal that he will continue to escalate this war with China until such time as he considers the United States to be victorious. The fact that Trump issues this “order” amidst rising recession fears only highlights how ending U.S.-China trade is at the top of his to-do list. So in terms of what this means for your business, it means that you must stop believing there will be a solution to the trade war that will allow you to go back to doing business with China the way you used to do business with China. You need to instead recognize that this situation is the New Normal as between the United States and China and that, if anything, things are way more likely to get worse than they are to get better.

Trump Shifts Tone on China But Not Tactics as Deal Grows Distant - President Donald Trump left the G-7 summit on Monday taking a softer tone toward China, just days after spooking financial markets with another escalation in their trade war. Yet amid all the soothing words, Trump made it clear that he wasn’t abandoning his rough and tumble tactics to force a trade deal on China. After spending a weekend listening to fellow Group of Seven leaders urging him to ease tensions with China, Trump pointed to recent calls and an amiable speech by China’s top negotiator as signs Beijing wanted a deal. He shrugged off, however, the uncertainty his trade war has caused and showed no signs of backing down in an increasingly bitter trade dispute that’s chipping away at global economic growth and sending world markets tumbling. “It’s the way I negotiate. It’s done very well for me over the years. And it’s doing even better for the country,” Trump told reporters. Those clamoring for a deal lacked his “guts” and “wisdom,” he added. While markets seized on Trump’s positive signals Monday, the doubling down on methods that have yielded little progress after more than two years of steady escalation might have been the better one to focus on. On Friday, Trump announced additional tariffs on China in response to Beijing’s plans to retaliate against U.S. goods. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was little changed at 10:32 a.m. local time. Stocks traded in Shanghai were higher. The yuan traded onshore at 7.1578 to the dollar, the weakest since 2008. Going into the traditional Labor Day end of the U.S. summer, the prospects of a peaceful resolution to a trade war that has roiled financial markets and helped slow the global economy seem far lower than they were on Memorial Day -- and are growing more distant week by week. “The likelihood of any sort of sustainable deal was already a long-shot a week ago. And now the political terrain on which you could create a deal is just so infinitesimal,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. People familiar with the state of talks say little progress has been made in recent weeks and that any perceived advances Trump sees may have more to do with his mood than what is actually happening. The administration also appears to lack a clear plan over what to do next.

Beijing Says It's Still Not Aware Of Calls Cited By Trump - In what will likely be remembered as one of his more desperate and transparent bids to start a fire under the market, President Trump tweeted early Monday morning that his team had received multiple calls from Beijing about the prospects for restarting trade talks. However, China swiftly denied this, and insisted that it had no knowledge of any calls going out to the Trump Administration.  And on Tuesday, more than 24 hours after the supposed 'olive branch' was offered, China's Foreign Minister clarified that it it still isn't aware of any calls to President Trump's camp, like the one the president described in his tweet.   A spokesman for the foreign ministry also complained about the US's 'regretful' decision to move ahead with raising tariffs again.  Speaking to Bloomberg, a spokesman for the foreign ministry said he wasn't aware of any detente between Washington and Beijing.  "I’m not aware of that," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular briefing in Beijing on Tuesday. "Regretfully the U.S. has announced its decision to add new tariffs on Chinese products. Such maximum pressure will hurt both sides and is not constructive at all."  Trump famously said Monday that the prospects for a deal were better now than at any time in the recent past, though the market largely ignored him as Chinese sources continued to insist that the relationship between the two sides remained strained.

China Prepares for the Worst on Trade War After Trump’s Flip-Flops - Perhaps nobody was more surprised to hear that China had called President Donald Trump’s administration to restart trade talks than the government in Beijing itself. After a weekend of confusing signals, Trump’s credibility has become a key obstacle for China to reach a lasting deal with the U.S., according to Chinese officials familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified. Only a few negotiators in Beijing see a deal as actually possible ahead of the 2020 U.S. election, they said, in part because it’s dangerous for any official to advise President Xi Jinping to sign a deal that Trump may eventually break. In off-the-cuff remarks to reporters at the Group of Seven summit in France on Monday, Trump claimed that Chinese officials called “our top trade people” and said “let’s get back to the table.” In subsequent appearances he portrayed the outreach as evidence China was desperate to make a deal: “They’ve been hurt very badly, but they understand this is the right thing to do.” It all made for splashy headlines and momentarily boosted stocks, but nobody in Beijing officialdom appeared to know what he was talking about. Even worse, his efforts to depict China as caving in negotiations actually confirmed some of their worst fears about Trump: that he can’t be trusted to cut a deal.  “Trump’s flip flop has further enlarged the distrust,” said Tao Dong, vice chairman for Greater China at Credit Suisse Private Banking in Hong Kong. “This makes a quick resolution nearly impossible.” Two Chinese officials likened the country’s approach to the U.S. during the Korean War, saying it consisted of fighting while talking, and using fights to speed up talks. China has prepared contingency plans in case of a no-deal scenario, three officials said, including putting U.S. companies on its unreliable entity list and stimulating the economy.  China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday again said it was unaware of the phone calls mentioned by Trump, reiterating a statement immediately after his remarks. One of the first to call out Trump was Hu Xijin, chief editor at the Communist Party-backed Global Times newspaper, who said Monday that the U.S. president was exaggerating the significance of low-level talks and China’s position hadn’t changed.

Trump Made Up High Level Phone Calls With China To Boost Markets, Aides Admit - Report - Just before Europe opened on Monday morning, with US equity futures tumbling below 2,800 and the Chinese yuan in freefall after a tense weekend in which traders stewed over the latest trade war escalations and rushed to sell, algos sent risk surging following a statement by President Trump in Biarritz, France, that "China called last night" and said they want to resume trade talks, later elaborating that two "high-level" Chinese officials had called to try and restart stalled negotiations. He turned to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for backup, and Mnuchin said there had been "communication," later amending it to "communications."Almost immediately, China denied that any phone call had taken place, insinuating that Trump had made up the entire event - ostensibly to avoid a market landslide, and if so, Trump indeed achieved his goal: in the span of seconds, the market mood changed, and stocks surged on Monday, and have continued their ascent higher on the assumption that sentiment in the trade war had shifted. The reality, of course, is that there was little doubt as to whether a phone call had ever taken place. It hadn't. And now, according to a CNN report, White House aides "conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did," and "instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese," precisely as we said had likely happened on Monday morning. Trump has become increasingly concerned about the market's inability to rise comfortably above 3,000 and is agitated, CNN reports, because "the economy is flashing warning signs Trump didn't expect, his trade war with China is dragging on months longer than expected yet he refuses to give in," and he's "spinning to find victories to sell to voters."

Can Trump Keep The US Stock Market Bubble From Popping As World Economy Slows? - Andy Xie - It is now clear that no deal is likely in the US-China trade war. As the rivalry morphs into a cold war, the close economic ties between the two are simply untenable. However, US President Donald Trump is still talking up a deal , if not this year, then in 2020. He is trying to keep the US stock market bubble afloat. If the market stays up, he is likely to be re-elected. If not, it is “Adios, Trump”.  The US market has gone through another convulsion over recession prospects. Both the market and Trump thought that a Fed rate cut would revive the market. It may have had the opposite effect. The Fed’s move has only magnified the recession fear. Why would the Fed cut rates otherwise?  As the US unemployment rate is still at a historical low, the recession fear may seem odd. But, now is not a normal time. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the global economy has come back with more debt and more asset bubbles. In a bubble economy, recession is a self-fulfilling expectation. The property bubble in China and the stock bubble in the US have led the global economy since 2008. The US stock market surpassed 100 per cent of GDP in 1996 for the first time in history and was above 150 per cent at the recent peak.. It would appear that the US stock market was 50 per cent hot air based on historical valuation metrics. The market bubble pumped up the value of Amercia’s US$30 trillion pension assets, which still has a shortfall of US$3-4 trillion. Like Trump said, if the market pops, Americans could kiss their pensions goodbye. As baby boomers are retiring en masse, massive pension shortfalls will surely lead to recession and even political turmoil. China’s property bubble is bigger than the US stock bubble. It is likely to be over five times GDP in value. The hot air in the price accounts for more than 50 per cent. Most of China’s debt, which now tops 300 per cent of GDP, is backed up by property. It can keep going only if the debt continues to rise faster than GDP. Any deleveraging campaign, which the country tried a couple of years ago, would pop the bubble. The adjustment in China’s property market was the main factor in the global economy slowing. The Trump bull market has mitigated some of its fallout in the past two years. If the Trump bull market bursts, a global recession is inevitable and could be quite deep.

Retailers howl as U.S. trade agency locks in 15% tariffs on September 1 (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Wednesday made official its extra 5% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports and set collection dates of Sept. 1 and Dec. 15, prompting hundreds of U.S. retail, footwear, toy and technology companies to warn of price hikes. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said in an official notice that collections of a 15% tariff will begin at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) Sunday on a portion of the list covering over $125 billion of targeted goods from China. This initial tranche includes smartwatches, Bluetooth headphones, flat panel televisions and many types of footwear. U.S. Customs and Border Protection will also start collecting a 15% tariff on Dec. 15 on the remainder of the $300 billion list, including cellphones, laptop computers, toys and clothing, USTR said in the Federal Register filing. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the increase to 15% from 10% last Friday on Twitter, escalating the bitter U.S. China trade war after Beijing hit back with retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, including crude oil. 

Trump’s new tariffs will begin Sunday — here’s what they mean for your wallet - The U.S.-China trade war is set to enter a new phase, one expected to be so costly that it will take away much of what Americans gained from the 2017 tax cut. But experts say there is good news for consumers: the effect of the new tariffs slated to be implemented Sunday won’t be felt right away.“The impact won’t be immediate. You won’t all of a sudden be paying more, but it (the tariff impact) will trickle down to the consumer,” said Melissa Miller, senior manager at the World Trade Center Kansas City, which promotes international trade.There are a host of reasons that the impact will be delayed: Suppliers have imported items already and are looking for alternatives to dealing with China. And retailers are applying pressure to suppliers to hold costs. But experts agree that such strategies are stopgaps and prices are likely to spike.There are 122 pages worth of tariffs set to go into effect this weekend on clothing, toys, food -- “items that most consumers prefer,” said Scott Eastman, federal research manager at the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based research group.Eastman calculated that by the end of the year that Trump administration-imposed tariffs that are already in effect and are scheduled to take effect are estimated to cost a family of four a total of $1,467.The price hit would be enough to wipe out a big chunk of the federal tax cut Trump signed into law in 2017. The Tax Foundation estimates that a family of four earning $85,000 received a tax cut of about $2,250 last year, a 3% boost in take-home pay.The government plans a 15% tariff on many consumer goods from China starting Sunday. Previous tariff rounds have largely dealt with “intermediate” items, such as parts for machinery or raw materials.Items subject to the tariff include certain disposable footwear, tablecloths and dishcloths, lettuce and tomatoes, wigs and wool, women’s blouses and men’s bathrobes, baby clothes and pacifiers, sunglasses and contact lenses.In October, a 25% tariff already in effect on certain items, including some juices, seafood and produce, will jump to 30%.And on December 15, a new tariff is to be applied to another list of Chinese imports, including consumer electronics such as video game consoles and cell phones.

China says it’s willing to resolve trade war with a ‘calm attitude,’ hints it won’t retaliate for now — China is willing to calmly resolve the trade dispute with the United States and is against any further escalation in tensions, Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said Thursday. “We firmly reject an escalation of the trade war, and are willing to negotiate and collaborate in order to solve this problem with a calm attitude,” Gao said, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. He noted that the Chinese and U.S. trade delegations have maintained “effective” communication. But he did not confirm a claim from President Donald Trump on Monday which said the Chinese team had called the U.S. over the weekend with the desire of reaching a deal soon. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has previously said it is unaware of the call that Trump described. “China has plenty of means for counter measures, but under current situation, the question that should be discussed right now is about removing the U.S.′ new tariffs on $550 billion Chinese goods to prevent escalation of the trade war,” Gao said. His comment came after Trump on Friday threatened to raise duties on $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25% and increase tariffs on another $300 billion in products to 15% from 10%, in response to Chinese retaliation.

Pentagon in talks with Australia on rare earths plant: official - The U.S. Department of Defense is in talks with Australia to host a facility that would process rare earth minerals, part of an effort to reduce reliance on China for the specialized materials used in military equipment, a senior American official said. The push comes as China threatens to curb exports to the United States of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals found in fighter jets, tanks and high-tech consumer electronics. China is the world’s largest processor and producer of the minerals accounting for more than 80 percent of global processing capacity. “We’re concerned about any fragility in the supply chain and especially where an adversary controls the supply,” Ellen Lord, the Pentagon’s under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told reporters at a Washington event on Monday. Lord said the Pentagon is looking at several options to partner on rare earth processing facilities, adding “one of the highest potential avenues is to work with Australia.” Australian Department of Defence officials said that cooperation on critical minerals that had begun in 2018 was ongoing.

US exports to lobster-loving China go off cliff amid tariffs (AP) — U.S. lobster exports to China have fallen off a cliff this year as new retaliatory tariffs shift the seafood business farther north.China, a huge and growing customer for lobster, placed heavy tariffs on U.S. lobsters — and many other food products — in July 2018 amid rising trade hostilities between the Chinese and the Trump administration.  Meanwhile, business is booming in Canada, where cargo planes are coming to Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Moncton, New Brunswick, to handle a growing bump in exports. Canadian fishermen catch the same species of lobster as American lobstermen, who are based mostly in Maine.

Digital Sales Tax v. Tariffs on French Wine -Even before Donald Trump departed for the G7 in Biarritz France, he threatened another trade war this time with the host country over the digital sales tax:U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday reiterated criticism of a French proposal to levy a tax aimed at big U.S. technology companies and threatened again to retaliate by taxing French wine. Speaking to reporters at the White House before leaving for a Group of Seven summit in France, Trump said he is not a “big fan” of tech companies but “those are great American companies and frankly I don’t want France going out and taxing our companies.” “And if they do that … we’ll be taxing their wine like they’ve never seen before,” he said.A tariff on French wine might help New York’s Finger Lake area as well as California wine makers so maybe Trump is hoping to win over California and New York in the 2020 election. Or maybe Trump does not know that some states impose digital sales taxes:The sales tax laws have been updated to include digital goods and services in different ways across the different US states, and the application of these laws has been troublesome for most state and local governments. Quick Stats: There are 27 states that tax digital products. There are 23 states that do not tax digital products. 5 states do not have a retail sales tax at all; these include, Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon. For the states that tax digital products, the tax rate varies from 1% to 7%, depending upon the state and the type of digital good. The push for a digital sales tax (DST) in Europe is discussed by the Congressional Research Service: Several countries, primarily in Europe, and the European Commission have proposed or adopted taxes on revenue earned by multinational corporations (MNCs) in certain “digital economy” sectors from activities linked to the user-based activity of their residents. These proposals have generally been labeled as “digital services taxes” (DSTs).

 How the Media Fools Us About Trade - Dean Baker -The New York Times ran an article last week with a headline saying that the 2020 Democratic presidential contenders faced a major problem: “how to be tougher on trade than Trump.” Serious readers might have struggled with the idea of getting “tough on trade.” After all, trade is a tool, like a shovel. How is it possible to get tough on a shovel?While this headline may be especially egregious, it is characteristic of trade coverage, which takes an almost entirely Trumpian view of the topic. The media portray the issue as one of some countries, thThmost obviously China, benefiting at the expense of the United States. The media take a somewhat different tack on this country-versus-country story, but they nonetheless embrace the nonsense Trumpian logic. For Trump, at least in his rhetoric, the trade deficit is the central measure of winners and losers. In the case of China, its huge trade surplus with the United States ($420 billion or 2.1 percent of GDP in 2018) makes it Trumpian enemy number one. The trade deficit certainly is a problem for US workers, but this doesn’t mean that China is winning at the expense of the United States, because of “stupid” trade negotiators, as Trump puts it. The US trade deficit with China was not an accident. Both Republican and Democratic administrations signed trade deals that made it as easy as possible to manufacture goods in China and other countries, and then export them back to the United States. In many cases, this meant that large US corporations, like General Electric and Boeing, outsourced parts of their operations to China to take advantage of low-cost labor there. In other cases, retailers like Walmart set up low-cost supply chains so that they could undercut their competitors in the US market. In fact, the trade deficit was the result of their efforts to increase their profits. They have little reason to be unhappy with the trade deals negotiated over the last three decades. It is a different story for workers in the United States. As a result of the exploding trade deficit, we lost 3.4 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2007, 20 percent of the jobs in the sector. This is before the collapse of the housing bubble led to the Great Recession. We lost 40 percent of all unionized jobs in manufacturing.  The claim that we suddenly saw massive job loss in this sector due to automation, which just happened to coincide with the explosion of the trade deficit, is what economists refer to as “nonsense.”

Putin built a hypersonic arsenal, while the Pentagon slept - In the course of his lengthy annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly this year, President Vladimir Putin excoriated the United States for abandoning the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty while asserting that “the work on promising prototypes and weapon systems that I spoke about in my Address last year continues as scheduled and without disruptions.”  Putin went on to say that Russia had entered serial production of theAvangard hypersonic glide system, which was to be deployed later in 2019. He added that the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which he asserted was “of unprecedented power,” was in the test stage, as was the Peresvet laser missile and air-defense weapon, likewise to be deployed this year. He noted that the Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missile, having undergone operational testing, “proved [its] unique characteristics during test and combat alert missions while the personnel learned how to operate them.” Finally, he asserted that the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile “of unlimited range,” and the Poseidon nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle, were successfully undergoing tests. Since Putin’s speech in February, the work on at least one of those systems has suffered rather serious “disruption.” Despite Putin’s assertion that Burevestnik missile testing was going well, it was that very missile that Western analysts believe was being tested when a nuclear explosion, first reported earlier this month, killed seven scientists and forced an initial evacuation order for at least one nearby village because of potential exposure to deadly radiation. Failures in the early or even later stages of systems development are not uncommon. Moreover, the Russians have a high tolerance for test failures; this is not always the case with respect to American weapons development. In any event, Moscow is moving ahead with the development of its other nuclear armed systems and is certain to continue testing the Burevestnik.

Trump declares new Space Command key to American defense (AP) — Declaring space crucial to the nation’s defense, President Donald Trump said Thursday the Pentagon has established U.S. Space Command to preserve American dominance on “the ultimate high ground.” “This is a landmark day,” Trump said in a Rose Garden ceremony, “one that recognizes the centrality of space to America’s national security and defense.” He said Space Command, headed by a four-star Air Force general, will “ensure that America’s superiority in space is never questioned and never threatened.”  But there’s still no Space Force.  Space Force, which has become a reliable applause line for Trump at his campaign rallies, has yet to win final approval by Congress. The renewed focus on space as a military domain reflects concern about the vulnerability of U.S. satellites, both military and commercial, that are critical to U.S. interests and are potentially susceptible to disruption by Chinese and Russian anti-satellite weapons. The role of the new Space Command is to conduct operations such as enabling satellite-based navigation and communications for troops and commanders in the field and providing warning of missile launches abroad. That is different from a Space Force, which would be a distinct military service like the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Congress has inched toward approving the creation of a Space Force despite skepticism from some lawmakers of both parties. The House and Senate bills differ on some points, and an effort to reconcile the two will begin after Congress returns from its August recess.

The battle for the soul of the Space Force - Finally, the debate that should have begun over a year ago has now arrived in earnest. Two different visions for the future of the Space Force have recently been presented to the public. One is from the president of the Air Force Association, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright. The other by the currently serving Air Force Lt. Gen. Steven Kwast. These two men encapsulate the two major factions that exist in the Space Force debate. Wright expresses the Air Force’s preferred “warfighting domain” school. Kwast is the most senior and vocal proponent of the maritime-inspired faction that has begun to call itself the “blue water” space school. Which school America chooses to first lead the Space Force will have serious repercussions to the United States for decades to come. Wright recently outlined a vision for Space Force.Wright claimed that the U.S. must “answer the rising threats posed by China and Russia against commercial, military, and intelligence satellites with unparalleled military capability to deter and, if necessary, defeat enemy threats in space.” Wright has identified Chinese anti-satellite weapons as the greatest space threat because they were developed to take away America’s current advantage in space, its system of satellites that allows the United States to dominate terrestrial combat. “The ability to fight concurrently across multiple domains,” Wright argues, “will advantage our defenses and confound adversaries should we ever need to take the offensive.”  Kwast outlined his own vision for the military branch. Kwast identifies China as America’s greatest threat in space. However, the space race with China “is about determining which values will dominate the future world order,” not solely securing America’s terrestrial military advantage.

 Trump administration taps disaster, cyber funds to cover immigration - (Reuters) - The Trump administration is shifting $271 million earmarked for disaster aid and cyber security to pay for immigration-related facilities, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and a leading congressional Democrat said on Tuesday.The money, which was also set aside for the U.S. Coast Guard, will be used to pay for detention facilities and courts for migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border. DHS officials say they have been overwhelmed by a surge of asylum-seeking migrants fleeing violence and poverty in Central America.The Trump administration is seeking to circumvent Congress to move money originally designated for other programs. This will allow the administration to continue to house immigrants arriving at the border, part of President Donald Trump’s promise not to allow them to await hearings outside of custody.The administration plans to take $115 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster-relief fund just as hurricane season is heating up in the Atlantic Ocean, according to a letter from U.S. Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard, who chairs the congressional panel that oversees Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spending. Money will be taken for planned upgrades to the National Cybersecurity Protection System and new equipment for the U.S. Coast Guard, the letter said.

 ‘Undercover deportation’: U.S. and Mexico widen asylum crackdown to block all migrants – A Trump administration program forcing asylum seekers to wait in Mexico has evolved into a sweeping rejection of all forms of migrants, with both countries quietly working to keep people out of the U.S. despite threats to the migrants’ safety. The results serve the goals of both governments, which have targeted unauthorized migration at the behest of President Donald Trump, who threatened Mexico with potentially crippling tariffs earlier this year to force action. Some people sent to wait in the Mexican border cities of Nuevo Laredo and Matamoros said they never requested asylum, including Wilfredo Alvarez, a laborer from Honduras. He crossed the Rio Grande without permission to look for work to support his seven children and was unexpectedly put into the program. He was sent back to Mexico with a future court date. “They threw us away here to Mexico, but we are not from here and it’s very difficult.” Others said they were never asked if they feared persecution in Mexico, despite U.S. government rules that say migrants should not be sent there if they face that risk. U.S. border agents give each returned migrant a date for an immigration court hearing at tents set up near the border. But the Mexican government has bused hundreds of migrants to cities around 1,000 miles (1,600 km) away, ostensibly for their safety. And there’s no promise that Mexico will bring migrants back. Instead, Mexico is offering to return many Central Americans to the Guatemala border, and others are choosing to leave at their own expense. A priest running a shelter in Nuevo Laredo called the process a form of “undercover deportation.” “It’s a way to send them to a country that’s not theirs and save money,” Aaron Mendez said. “And Mexico has not said one word.” Two weeks after speaking to The Associated Press, Mendez was kidnapped by armed men who entered the shelter. He is still missing.

Some children of US troops born overseas will no longer get automatic American citizenship, Trump administration says - Some children born to U.S. service members and government employees overseas will no longer be automatically considered citizens of the United States, according to policy alert issued by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) on Wednesday.Previously, all children born to U.S. citizen parents were considered to be "residing in the United States," and therefore would be automatically granted citizenship under Immigration and Nationality Act 320. Now, children born to U.S. service members and government employees who are not yet themselves U.S. citizens, while abroad, will not be considered as residing in the U.S., changing the way that they potentially receive citizenship. Children who are not U.S. citizens and are adopted by U.S. service members while living abroad will also no longer receive automatic citizenship by living with the U.S. citizen adopted parents.The change was first reported by San Francisco Chronicle reporter Tal Kopan."The policy change explains that we will not consider children who live abroad with their parents to be residing in the United States even if their parents are U.S. government employees or U.S. service members stationed outside of the United States, and as a result, these children will no longer be considered to have acquired citizenship automatically," USCIS spokesperson Meredith Parker originally told Task & Purpose on Wednesday, when asked how the policy changes how the government views children of U.S. service members."For them to obtain a Certificate of Citizenship, their U.S. citizen parent must apply for citizenship on their behalf," she added. The process under INA 322 must be completed before the child's 18th birthday.

Pentagon caught off guard by new citizenship policy, but promises to help impacted troops -  The Pentagon said Thursday it would help service members affected by a new Trump administration policy that makes it more difficult for troops stationed overseas to get citizenship for their children. Late Wednesday, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issued a new policy that limits which children born to military and U.S. government personnel stationed overseas will automatically qualify for U.S. citizenship.Previously, children born to military personnel while they were overseas received U.S. residency through the orders their parents were deployed on. That is no longer allowed through the new policy, to varying effects for military families, depending on the citizenship status of both parents. The policy announcement created immediate confusion among service members, and the Pentagon seemed caught off guard by the new policy on Thursday. At a media availability at the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Mark Esper declined to answer questions on the issue and two defense officials said they had not been included in any deliberations on it. “We were not part of the decision process on this,” one of the officials said. However in an official statement issued after the USCIS policy was released, the Pentagon said it had been “working closely” with USCIS on the change, and was “committed to ensuring affected families are provided the appropriate information, resources, and support during this transition.” USCIS appears to have alerted DoD to the policy change June 25, in a document obtained by McClatchy that outlined the categories of service members who would be impacted by the policy change, wording that seems to have survived in the final policy:

• Children born to non-citizens and adopted by a citizen government employee or service member
• Non-citizen parents who naturalized after the child’s birth
• Two U.S. citizen government employees or U.S. service members who did not meet the requirements to transmit citizenship to their child, or one non-citizen parent and one citizen parent who does not meet the requirements.

 The Justice Department Sent Immigration Judges A White Nationalist Blog Post With Anti-Semitic Attacks -- An email sent from the Justice Department to all immigration court employees this week included a link to an article posted on a white nationalist website that “directly attacks sitting immigration judges with racial and ethnically tinged slurs,” according to a letter sent by an immigration judges union and obtained by BuzzFeed News. According to the National Association of Immigration Judges, the Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) sent court employees a link to a blog post from VDare, a white nationalist website, in its morning news briefing earlier this week that included anti-Semitic attacks on judges. The briefings are sent to court employees every weekday and include links to various immigration news items. BuzzFeed News confirmed the link to a blog post was sent to immigration court employees Monday. The post detailed a recent move by the Justice Department to decertify the immigration judges union. A letter Thursday from union chief Ashley Tabaddor to James McHenry, the director of the Justice Department’s EOIR, said the link to the VDare post angered many judges. “The post features links and content that directly attacks sitting immigration judges with racial and ethnically tinged slurs and the label ‘Kritarch.’ The reference to Kritarch in a negative tone is deeply offensive and Anti-Semitic,” wrote Tabaddor. The VDare post includes pictures of judges with the term “kritarch” preceding their names. Tabaddor said the term kritarchy is a reference to ancient Israel during a time of rule by a system of judges. “VDare’s use of the term in a pejorative manner casts Jewish history in a negative light as an Anti-Semitic trope of Jews seeking power and control,” she wrote.

Incoming Harvard Freshman Deported After Visa Revoked - While most Harvard freshmen settle into their dorms Tuesday, one new student, Ismail B. Ajjawi ’23, faces ongoing negotiations with immigration officers to allow him to enter the United States and study at the College.  U.S. officials deported Ajjawi, a 17-year-old Palestinian resident of Tyre, Lebanon, Friday night shortly after he arrived at Boston Logan International Airport. Before canceling Ajjawi’s visa, immigration officers subjected him to hours of questioning — at one point leaving to search his phone and computer — according to a written statement by Ajjawi.University officials are currently working to resolve the matter before classes begin on Sept. 3, Harvard spokesperson Jonathan L. Swain wrote in an email.“The University is working closely with the student’s family and appropriate authorities to resolve this matter so that he can join his classmates in the coming days,” he wrote.Harvard both employs immigration lawyers at the Office of the General Counsel and staffs the Harvard International Office. Both groups work to resolve visa-related problems like Ajjawi’s. Ajjawi wrote that he has been in contact with HIO Director of Immigration Services Maureen Martin. Ajjawi wrote that he has also contacted AMIDEAST, the non-profit organization that awarded him a scholarship to study in the U.S., which is now providing him legal assistance. A State Department official declined to comment specifically on Ajjawi's case as visa records are confidential under U.S. law. U. S. Customs and Border Protection spokesperson Michael S. McCarthy wrote in an emailed statement that CBP found Ajjawi "inadmissible" to the country."Applicants must demonstrate they are admissible into the U.S. by overcoming ALL grounds of inadmissibility including health-related grounds, criminality, security reasons, public charge, labor certification, illegal entrants and immigration violations, documentation requirements, and miscellaneous grounds," McCarthy wrote. "This individual was deemed inadmissible to the United States based on information discovered during the CBP inspection.” Ajjawi wrote that he spent eight hours in Boston before he was required to leave. Upon arrival, Ajjawi faced questioning from immigration officials along with several other international students. While the other students were allowed to leave, Ajjawi alleges an immigration officer continued to question him about his religion and religious practices in Lebanon.

USSA Social Credit- US Denied Entry To Student Because Of Friend's Social Media Posts - A Harvard student has been denied entry to the United States because of what one of his friends posted on social media. Ismail Ajjawi reportedly had his visa canceled after hours of questioning at Boston’s airport by the USSA. Silicon Valley is already hard at work manipulating behavior, taking on the role of anauthoritarian government, and attempting to punish people for not acting the way they see fit. The New York State Department of Financial Services announced earlier this yearthat life insurance companies can base premiums on what they find in your social media posts. That Instagram pic showing you teasing a grizzly bear at Yellowstone with a martini in one hand, a bucket of cheese fries in the other, and a cigarette in your mouth, could cost you. On the other hand, a Facebook post showing you doing yoga might save you money.Airbnb can disable your account for life for any reason it chooses, and it reserves the right to not tell you the reason. The company’s canned message includes the assertion that “This decision is irreversible and will affect any duplicated or future accounts. Please understand that we are not obligated to provide an explanation for the action taken against your account.” The ban can be based on something the host privately tells Airbnb about something they believe you did while staying at their property. Airbnb’s competitors have similar policies.It’s now easy to get banned by Uber, too. Whenever you get out of the car after an Uber ride, the app invites you to rate the driver. What many passengers don’t know is that the driver now also gets an invitation to rate you. Under a new policy announced in May: If your average rating is “significantly below average,” Uber will ban you from the service.You can be banned on WhatsApp if too many other users block you. You can also get banned for sending spam, threatening messages, trying to hack or reverse-engineer the WhatsApp app, or using the service with an unauthorized app.-Fast CompanyBut it’s gone a step further.  The government is now rejecting entry to the country for foreigners based on their friends’ actions and social media posts. This is the dystopian future George Orwell warned us about in his iconic book, 1984.Written 70 years ago, 1984 was Orwell’s chilling prophecy about the future. And while 1984, the year, has come and gone, his dystopian vision of a government that will do anything to control the narrative is timelier than ever.

How Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s Account Was Hacked -- Jack Dorsey’s ongoing mission to increase the civility of public discourse suffered a setback Friday, when an anonymous hacker took over his Twitter account for 20 minutes and retweeted @taytaylov3r’s claim that “nazi germany did nothing wrong.”   Twitter, as you likely know if you've spent any time there, has an ongoing, well-documented problem with Nazis, white supremacists, and other extremists. It appears taytaylov3r's account has since been suspended.The hijacking of the company CEO's account appears to have started at around 3:45 pm Eastern time, when the @jack account fired off nearly two dozen tweets and retweets. Several of the tweets were tagged #ChucklingSquad, the name of an apparent group of hackers who have been on an account-takeover spree this week. Before Dorsey, they hit numerous influencers, including Zane Hijazi of the popular Zane and Heath podcast, and Anthony Brown, who goes by BigJigglyPanda. Chuckling Squad also appears to have compromised and posted mocking messages to the account of YouTuber Etika, who was found dead in June.Which makes the @jack hack potentially just the latest, and most high-profile, in a string of takeovers. Twitter confirmed the incident in a tweet—in case anyone thought Dorsey was intentionally making bomb threats from his account—and said that the company was “investigating what happened.”  Some of the influencers who got hit in the last two weeks have blamed so-called SIM swap attacks, with a particular focus on AT&T. In a SIM swap, a hacker either convinces or bribes a carrier employee to switch the number associated with a SIM card to another device, at which point they can intercept any two-factor authentication codes sent by text message. (It’s hard to stop a determined SIM swapper, but at the very least you should switch from SMS two-factor to an authenticator app).

 Robocalls: Your Number, Please -- Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Last Thursday saw 51 attorney generals, including those of all 50 states and DC, and thirteen phone companies – AT&T, Bandwidth, CenturyLink, Charter, Comcast, Consolidated, Frontier, Sprint, T-Mobile, US Cellular, Verizon, and Winstream – enter into an agreement to stop robocalls.  I understand these are a big problem in the US,  particularly for senior citizens. While visiting my mother, I’ve watched her field several such calls each day. The callers often claim to be from the IRS or Medicare and demand immediate attention. Yet as will come as no great surprise to regular readers, the new robocall agreement is so weak as to be meaningless. Far be it for state regulators actually to try and regulate. As Ars Technica reports in US phone carriers make empty, unenforceable promises to fight robocalls:  The top wireless carriers and home phone providers promised attorneys general from every state and the District of Columbia that they would offer free robocall blocking and take other steps to fight robocalls. But the agreement imposes no legally binding requirements on phone providers. “Failure to adhere to these principles is not in itself a basis for liability,” a disclaimer on the agreement notes. Even if breaking the agreement was a basis for liability, there would be no deadline to comply. “Adherence to these principles may take time for the voice service providers to plan for and implement,” the disclaimer also said, while providing no specific timeline for the carriers to fulfill their promises. Given that disclaimer, you’d think carriers actually agreed to make some major changes. But the agreement’s top promises are things the phone companies are already doing or in the process of rolling out.  I note that telecoms companies are lauding the effort. Need I say more?  Rather than another virtue- signalling exercise, what’s needed is some actual regulation – as Ars Technica recognizes: “Voluntary agreements are no substitute for enforceable rights,” Harold Feld, senior VP of consumer advocacy group Public Knowledge, told Ars. “This is the sort of smokescreen designed to stop Congress from passing more effective legislation, like the Stopping Bad Robocalls Act passed by the House [and pending in the Senate]. With nothing to force carriers to meet deadlines, nothing to force carriers to upgrade once robocallers figure out how to outwit the new technological measures, and nothing to stop carriers from walking away if it gets too hard or too expensive, I wouldn’t declare ‘Mission Accomplished.'”

 Sanders Touts Plan To Stop Big Media Mergers And Bolster Independent News -- Warning the "decimation of journalism" by big business and billionaire executives poses a major threat to democracy, Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday unveiled a plan to stop the long-running corporate consolidation of American media, take anti-trust action against tech giants like Facebook and Google, and bolster independent news."Today, after decades of consolidation and deregulation, just a small handful of companies control almost everything you watch, read, and download," Sanders, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, wrote in an op-ed for the Columbia Journalism Review. This consolidation, as well as the domination of the digital market by Facebook and Google, has led to the destruction of local independent news and hard-hitting reporting, Sanders said, leaving a void that has been filled by the vapid punditry, "infotainment," and business-friendly propaganda that is so often featured on America's corporate-owned television networks."At precisely the moment when we need more reporters covering the healthcare crisis, the climate emergency, and economic inequality," wrote the Vermont senator, "we have television pundits paid tens of millions of dollars to pontificate about frivolous political gossip, as local news outlets are eviscerated."Sanders went on to provide an overview of the long-running destruction of local news and independent journalism, which he said has been "gutted by the same forces of greed that are pillaging our economy": Over the past 15 years, more than 1,400 communities across the county have lost newspapers, which are the outlets local television, radio, and digital news sites rely on for reporting. Since 2008, we have seen newsrooms lose 28,000 employees—and in the past year alone, 3,200 people in the media industry have been laid off. Today, for every working journalist, there are six people now working in public relations, often pushing a corporate line.

Ex-FBI Director James Comey violated department policies with Trump memos, watchdog says -- Former FBI Director James Comey violated Justice Department and FBI policies, as well as his employment agreement, in his handling of memos documenting conversations with President Donald Trump,  a Justice Department watchdog said Thursday.Comey, who was fired by Trump in May 2017, is not being prosecuted for the alleged violations detailed in the scathing report by the Justice Department’s Office of Inspector General.“By not safeguarding sensitive information obtained during the course of his FBI employment, and by using it to create public pressure for official action, Comey set a dangerous example for the over 35,000 current FBI employees—and the many thousands more former FBI employees—who similarly have access to or knowledge of non-public information,” the report said.The Inspector General’s Office noted that, “We have previously faulted Comey for acting unilaterally and inconsister with Department” policy in regards to his press conference several months before the 2016 election which both slammed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton for her handling of emails as secretary of State, while claiming she should not be prosecuted for her conduct. The new report focused on Comey’s “disclosure of sensitive investigative information and handling of certain memoranda,” which included how he created, stored and handled seven memos detailing “one-to-one” interactions with Trump from Jan. 6, 2017 through April 11, 2017. The report noted that Comey had considered five of the memos “to be his personal documents,” created three of the memos “on his personal laptop computers,” and “kept signed originals of four of the Memos ... in his personal safe at home while he was serving as FBI Director.”

What That Comey Email Report Really Says - The inspector general of the Justice Department has determined that it is misconduct for a law enforcement officer to publicly disclose an effort to shut down his investigation. Michael Horowitz would probably not describe his findings that way. But that seems to me the inescapable message of the inspector general’s report, released today, on former Director James Comey’s handling of his memos on his interactions with President Trump.To be sure, you have to read through a lot of pages, facts and argument to get there. But get there you do if you read the document carefully. It’s an extraordinary message for an inspector general to send. And it warrants scrutiny.For all that Horowitz spent two years on this investigation, there aren’t a lot of new facts—at least not major ones—in this document. The reason is simple: Comey has never been anything but straightforward concerning why he wrote the seven memos in question, what he did with them, whom he shared them with and what his motives were in doing so. On all significant factual questions, the 62-page report merely fleshes out a story that has been known to the public for the better part of two years. What the report adds is loud condemnation. Horowitz reserves the last 10 pages of the report for howling about how Comey “violated applicable policies and his Employment Agreement,” about his release of “official FBI information and records to third parties without authorization,” and about his failure to “immediately alert the FBI” when he learned that material he had given his lawyers “contained six words ... that the FBI had determined were classified at the ‘CONFIDENTIAL’” level. Most of all, however, he’s upset by Comey’s “unauthorized disclosure of sensitive law enforcement information about the [Michael] Flynn investigation.” The president is thrilled:

 Trump Transition: Emoluments Clause Ain’t Kryptonite - Jerri-Lynn Scofield  -The WaPo yesterday reported Attorney General Bob Barr’s trolling the anti-Trump resistance resistance by booking a private holiday party in December at a Trump-owned hotel, Barr books Trump’s hotel for $30,000 holiday party: Barr signed a contract, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, for a “Family Holiday Party” in the hotel’s Presidential Ballroom Dec. 8. The party will feature a buffet and a four-hour open bar for about 200 people.  Barr is paying for the event himself and chose the venue only after other hotels, including the Willard and the Mayflower, were booked, according to a Justice Department official. The official said the purpose of Barr’s party wasn’t to curry favor with the president.   At first glance, this booking might seem to be a violation of the emoluments clause of the US Constitution (Article 1, Section 9):  “No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.” Alas, one of many bad Democratic ideas: using the emoluments clause as some Trump-busting version of kryptonite, a veritable gotcha. Rather than doing hard political work and figuring out how to beat the Donald, those proud of their ability to spell “emoluments” – and even moreso, to define what the word means – have tried to wield this seeming superweapon, to eliminate or harass post hoc the specter their Chosen One failed to vanquish in 2016. Alas, courts have so far declined to agree, as I indeed predicted, in previous posts (see US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause: a Nothingburger for Trump, Law Profs Sue Trump, Alleging Violation of the Emoluments Clause; Senate Democrats Discuss Doubling Down on Losing Strategy of Suing Trump on Emoluments; and Party On! Congressional Democrats Pile On to Another Bogus Emoluments Clause Lawsuit).and Emoluments Decision: No Way Back Machine). The basic problem. Standing. Translation: Just because something’s unconstitutional, doesn’t mean anyone has standing to do anything about it.

Trump’s banks won’t tell court if they have his tax returns - Lawyers for Deutsche Bank and Capital One repeatedly refused Friday to tell an appellate court in New York whether the banks are in possession of President Donald Trump's tax returns, citing "contractual obligations" not to disclose the information and drawing the ire of a panel of judges. The three-judge panel was so frustrated by the lawyers' refusal to answer that one of the judges suggested the appellate court might seek an order for the information. "Should we go to court and seek an order? I'm serious. We need to know," US Circuit Judge Peter W. Hall told a lawyer for Deutsche Bank, Raphael Prober. After several minutes of argument on the subject, the panel directed the lawyers to file letters under seal within 48 hours saying whether the banks have Trump's tax returns. But while the banks' lawyers indicated they would respond in writing, it wasn't clear that they agreed to provide that information. The dispute came during oral arguments before the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals in Trump's appeal of a lower court ruling that rejected his attempt to block Democratic lawmakers from accessing his financial records through subpoenas of those banks. The heart of the dispute is whether the subpoenas were issued pursuant to a legislative matter, which lawyers for the US House of Representatives have argued, or whether their true purpose is an attempt by Congress to improperly aid law enforcement, which Trump's lawyers contend.

Deutsche Bank has tax returns sought in Congressional probe - (AP) — President Donald Trump’s longtime bank revealed Tuesday that it has tax records Congress is seeking in its investigation of the president’s finances. Deutsche Bank said in court papers it has tax returns responsive to a subpoena sent this year, in which Congress asked the bank for a host of documents related to Trump and his family. Trump has long declined to release his tax returns and wants to block two House committees from getting the records, calling their document requests unlawful. A federal appeals court ordered Deutsche Bank to say whether or not Trump’s tax returns were in its possession after an attorney for the bank refused to answer that question during a hearing last week. The bank, in its court filing Tuesday, blacked out the name of the person or people whose tax records it had, citing privacy rules. It said it also has tax records “related to parties not named in the subpoenas but who may constitute ‘immediate family’” of individuals named in the document request. Messages were left with a Deutsche Bank attorney seeking comment on the filing. Deutsche Bank has lent Trump’s real estate company millions of dollars over the years. Lawmakers have said they are seeking the banking records as they investigate possible “foreign influence in the U.S. political process.” Trump and three of his children sued to stop the House Financial Services and Intelligence committees from getting the records on the grounds that the requests were overly broad and unconstitutional. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals indicated last week it would take a hard look at the legality of the subpoenas. The court is considering an appeal from a lower court’s decision this year to allow the subpoenas to proceed. U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos said in that case that Trump and his companies are “highly unlikely” to succeed in challenging them.

Lawrence O'Donnell: Source says Russian oligarchs co-signed Trump's Deutsche Bank loans - MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell says he has a source who told him Russian oligarchs signed off loans given to President Trump by Deutsche Bank.Lawyers for the German lender told a federal appeals court Tuesday that the bank has documents sought by Democrat-led House committees, which subpoenaed Deutsche Bank and Capital One for financial records related to Trump, his family, and businesses, but declined to reveal if they have Trump's tax returns.While the New York Times reports that Deutsche Bank, which has done business with Trump for two decades, does have some of Trump's personal and corporate tax returns, O'Donnell told colleague Rachel Maddow in the hand-off between their shows Tuesday evening he can go a bit further. "This single source close to Deutsche Bank has told me that the Trump — Donald Trump's loan documents there show that he has co-signers. That's how he was able to obtain those loans. And that the co-signers are Russian oligarchs," he said.

Trump Slams "Horrible, Corrupt Fake News" After MSNBC Anchor Admits "Was Wrong" On Trump-Russia Story - Following MSNBC anchor Lawrence O'Donnell's tweeted retraction of his 'thinly-sourced' lies that Russians had co-signed loans for President Trump, he took to his show last night to talk further about the fake news (but note the barely apologetic tone)... “I should not have said it on air or posted it on Twitter. I was wrong to do so. This afternoon attorneys for the president sent us a letter asserting the story is false. They demanded a retraction. Tonight we are retracting the story. We don’t know whether the information is inaccurate. But the fact is, we do know it wasn’t ready for broadcast, and for that I apologize.”This lack of apology retraction appears to have 'triggered' President Trump who took to Twitter to remind his followers just how 'normal' this strategy of "loud/dramatic fake news headlines followed by quiet retraction/apology."The totally inaccurate reporting by Lawrence O’Donnell, for which he has been forced by NBC to apologize, is NO DIFFERENT than the horrible, corrupt and fraudulent Fake News that I (and many millions of GREAT supporters) have had to put up with for years. So bad for the USA….Crazy Lawrence O’Donnell, who has been calling me wrong from even before I announced my run for the Presidency, even being previously forced by NBC to apologize, which he did while crying, for things he said about me & The Apprentice, was again forced to apologize, this time.....for the most ridiculous claim of all, that Russia, Russia, Russia, or Russian oligarchs, co-signed loan documents for me, a guarantee. Totally false, as is virtually everything else he, and much of the rest of the LameStream Media, has said about me for years. ALL APOLOGIZE! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2019

 Wills of Jeffrey Epstein, Aretha Franklin raise questions of legitimacy --- Mr. Epstein signed a will only two days before his death. The financier, who was 66, had a substantial estate, valued at nearly $578 million. He left his assets to a trust, The 1953 Trust, according to his will."It is unusual to sign a will two days before you die," said Bruce Steiner, an attorney at Kleinberg, Kaplan Wolff & Cohen. Signing a will so soon before death doesn't negate the document's legality — a will could be signed minutes before death and be perfectly sound if executed with the proper formalities. However, Mr. Epstein's circumstances may bring questions around "testamentary capacity" into play, attorneys said. This refers to a person's legal and mental ability to make a valid will."If he was so depressed to have killed himself, was he in the proper state of mind to write a new will?" Martin Shenkman, founder of Shenkman Law, said of Mr. Epstein.A court could invalidate terms of the will if this were ultimately found to be the case. However, the capacity standard is fairly easy to meet — Mr. Epstein would essentially have had to have known who he was, what he owned, and whom he wanted to provide for, said Mr. Steiner. That likely wouldn't be tough to prove, he added, since there were witnesses present when Mr. Epstein signed the will.However, the short timing could ensnare Mr. Epstein's estate from the standpoint of fraudulent conveyance rules. States have these rules to prevent the transfer of assets to another person or company in an effort to shield the assets from creditors.

Jeffrey Epstein’s Links To Scientists Are Even More Extensive Than We Thought - Jeffrey Epstein gave more money to science after his conviction than previously acknowledged, including to famous researchers, leading universities, an independent artificial-intelligence pioneer, and even a far-right YouTuber who took Epstein’s money to make videos on neuroscience.An extensive BuzzFeed News review of Epstein’s donations, public acknowledgments of funding, and meetings that happened after his release from jail shows that his links to top scientists continued after he was convicted for sex crimes in 2008.Epstein’s scientific friends, including Harvard mathematical biologist Martin Nowak and celebrity physicist Lawrence Krauss, introduced him to other leading scientists after his release from jail. The full extent of Epstein’s largesse may be millions of dollars higher than the sums recorded by his foundations in filings to the IRS because Epstein’s philanthropy is entangled with that of hisbillionaire associate Leon Black.Epstein, who killed himself in a Manhattan federal detention center while facing charges of trafficking dozens of underage girls for sex, loved to hang out with scientists and fund their work.“As some collect butterflies, he collects beautiful minds,” a 2002 New York magazine profile noted. After Epstein’s 2008 conviction for soliciting a minor for prostitution, which saw him serve just 13 months in a Florida jail, some intellectuals cut ties with him.“I told JE explicitly that I could not and would not accept any further support from him,” Howard Gardner, a Harvard University specialist in cognitive science and education who thanked Epstein in a 2005 book for research support and “valued friendship,” told BuzzFeed News by email.But Epstein continued to court other scientists, some of whom remained willing to take his money. Our list of Epstein’s post-conviction scientific associates is almost certainly incomplete — his foundations touted support for many projects that could not be corroborated, and some tax filings seem to be missing from the record.

Epstein accusers detail sexual abuse claims in NY court - Alleged victims of Jeffrey Epstein wept in court Tuesday as they told an extraordinary US hearing held weeks after his death how they were sexually abused by the disgraced financier. More than a dozen women -- some speaking through tears, others with their voices breaking -- described how he "stole" their dreams and "robbed" them of their innocence. Epstein, 66, hung himself in his New York prison cell earlier this month while awaiting trial on charges he trafficked young women for sex, depriving alleged victims of their day in court. Tuesday's hearing was scheduled so they could tell their stories before the case against him is dismissed. It was the first time most of the women had spoken publicly about Epstein. "Today we stand together. I will not remain a victim and be silent for one more day," said actress Anouska De Georgiou, who said she was sexually abused by Epstein. The women hugged and consoled each after returning from the podium where they addressed the Manhattan federal court, some reading from statements others going without. A few cried as they listened to testimony that sounded all too familiar to their own: vulnerable young women who were recruited, groomed, and then coerced into having sex with a multi-millionaire. Chauntae Davies described how she spent two weeks "vomiting myself to death" in a hospital after being raped by Epstein after she was recruited to give him massages, detailing his "sick abuse of young girls." "Every public humiliation I have endured I have suffered and he has won," she said. Another victim, who asked to remain anonymous, said she was "haunted forever" by being raped by Epstein. "I was his slave. I felt powerless and ashamed," she said, adding that Epstein had threatened to kill her if she wasn't a virgin. The majority of those who spoke talked of their outrage at Epstein's suicide on August 10. "I feel very angry and sad because justice has never been served in this case," said Courtney Wild, describing Epstein as a "coward."

Early Epstein Accuser Recounts Bizarre Sexual Abuse Ignored By FBI, NYPD -- Jeffrey Epstein's tremendous wealth and power allowed him to continuously prey on young women for decades - even while serving a 13-month stint in a Florida jail for pedophilia. According to multiple accounts, Epstein had a network of girls recruiting other victims for his sexual appetite, all under the direction of his long-time 'Madam' and partner in crime, Ghislaine Maxwell - who remains uncharged and has denied any wrongdoing.  According to a new report by the New York Times, dozens of Epstein victims may have been spared from sexual abuse if the FBI and NYPD had listened to accuser Maria Farmer, who told them of Epstein's behavior some twenty-four years ago.  Farmer, an artist, says Epstein lured her into his world with promises to pay for her painting career - only to be 'violently groped' by Epstein and Maxwell, according to her account. She recalls entering Epstein's orbit at the age of 25, where she says aspiring Victoria's Secret models would come through for 'auditions' for the lingerie company.  According to Farmer, Maxwell would announce upon leaving the house "I've got to go get girls for Jeffrey."   Ms. Maxwell would refer to the girls she was looking for as “nubiles,” Ms. Farmer said. “They had a driver, and he would be driving along, and Ghislaine would say, ‘Get that girl,’” she said. “And they’d stop, and she’d run out and get the girl and talk to her.” -New York Times  And when former President Bill Clinton was coming over, Epstein's house "bustled in anticipation" of the visit - though Farmer says she never actually saw him there. Her mother, Janice Swain, claims she met Donald one day in Mr. Epstein’s office, to which Epstein reportedly told Trump "she’s not for you."  Maria's sister Annie, meanwhile, "had been subjected to a troubling topless massage at Mr. Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico," after Maria introduced Annie to Epstein.

Surveillance Video Outside Epstein's Cell Deemed 'Unusable' - It appears that Jeffrey Epstein had really good timing when he, according to New York Chief Medical Examiner Barbara Sampson, decided to hang himself in his Manhattan jail cell the morning of August 10th - crushing bones in his neck which can fracture during hangings, but are typically broken during homicide by strangulation.   Not only was his cellmate moved out the day before he died, overworked prison guards reportedly fell asleep - missing their assigned 30-minute checks on the highest profile inmate in the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC). Epstein had recently been taken off suicide watch stemming from mysterious injuries he received weeks earlier. The convicted pedophile said he had been attacked.   He was placed on suicide watch for about a week after that — meaning he was monitored 24-7. He was placed back in the jail’s special housing unit late in the month and, for a time, had a new roommate.  But that person was transferred the day before Epstein’s death, and a new roommate was not assigned — despite the fact that at least eight jail officials knew Epstein was not to be left alone in his cell. -Washington Post Now, the Washington Post reports that at least one of the cameras in the hallway outside Epstein's cell had footage that is "unusable," despite "other, clearer footage" which was captured in the area. In short, it looks like we may never know why sources heard "shouting and shrieking" from Epstein's jail cell the morning he died.   It was not immediately clear why some video footage outside Epstein’s cell is too flawed for investigators to use or what is visible in the usable footage. The incident is being investigated by the FBI and the Justice Department’s inspector general’s office, which are attempting to determine what happened and how to assess whether any policies were violated or crimes committed. The footage is considered critical to those inquiries, and the revelation of an unusable recording is yet another of the apparent failures inside the Metropolitan Correctional Center, the short-staffed Bureau of Prisons facility in downtown Manhattan that held Epstein. -Washington Post

  Epstein's Own Lawyers Tell Court He Likely Died By Assault As Federal Case Dropped - Epstein's own defense team doesn't buy the suicide narrative, apparently, as one of his lawyers on Tuesday voiced deep skepticism that he hanged himself while addressing a final hearing in a Manhattan US District Court on Tuesday, which was held to formally dismiss the charges as is typical when the accused is deceased, but also to still allow testimony of some of the victims. Defense lawyer Reid Weingarten told Judge Richard Berman during the hearing that Epstein's injuries are “far more consistent with assault” than suicide, especially given the broken bones in his neck discovered during the autopsy after he was found dead in his jail cell on Aug. 10. This after it was previously revealed that Epstein's defense attorneys had successfully lobbied for him to be taken off suicide watch on July 29, about a week before he was found dead in his cell, according to ABC News. "Weingarten cited the defense’s own medical sources. Broken bones were found in Epstein’s neck during an autopsy after he died Aug. 10," reports CNBC. "Such fractures are somewhat more common in cases of strangulation than in hanging."Weingarten explained to the judge that Epstein didn't at all appear suicidal during discussions and interactions the evening before his apparent early morning hours death. “We did not see a despairing, despondent, suicidal person,” the lawyer said.  Tuesday's proceedings were held to allow about 20 women, many choosing to remain anonymous during testimony, to tell the court and the world what happened to them at the hands of the wealthy sex predator and human trafficker.

Billionaires are a Sign of Economic Failure - The New York Times published an editorial comment on its front page in January 2019, provocatively entitled “abolish billionaires.” The editorial raised a serious question: what if instead of being a sign of economic success, billionaires are a sign of economic failure?  In what ways can the boom in billionaires, and the dramatic increase in extreme wealth generally, be harmful?To answer this question, we need to understand the origins of billionaire wealth, and to understand how that wealth is used once it is gained. The answer to both these questions I think rightly casts doubt on the value of the super-rich in our society.Approximately one third of billionaire wealth comes from inheritance. It is very hard to make the case for the economic utility of inherited wealth, and instead there is a strong case for the fact that it undermines social mobility and economic progress. It creates instead a new aristocracy who are rich simply because their parents were rich which is hard to see as a good thing.  Whether inherited or secured in other ways, extreme wealth takes on a momentum of its own.  The super-rich have the money to spend on the best investment advice, and billionaire wealth has increased since 2009 by an average of 11 percent a year, far higher than rates ordinary savers can obtain.Bill Gates is worth nearly $100 billion dollars in 2019, almost twice what he was worth when he stepped down as head of Microsoft.  This is despite his admirable commitment to giving his money away.  As Thomas Piketty said in his book Capital in the 21^st Century, “No matter how justified inequalities of wealth may be initially, fortunes can grow beyond any rational justification in terms of social utility.” My Oxfam colleague Didier Jacobs calculated a few years ago that another third of billionaire wealth comes from crony connections to government and monopoly.  This could be for example when billionaires secure concessions to provide services exclusively from government, using crony connections and corruption.  TheEconomist has developed a similar measure of crony capitalism with similar findings. What is clear it seems to me is that corruption and crony connections to governments are behind a significant proportion of billionaire wealth.

David Koch’s reclusive nephew is next in line to inherit the family legacy, and he may be planning a shift away from conservative politics -  The "Koch brothers" became a household name thanks to theconservative legacy, network, and $100 billion company spearheaded by David and Charles Koch. Now Koch Industries has confirmed that 79-year-old David has died after a 27-year battle with prostate cancer.With 83-year-old Charles remaining at the helm of the second-largest company in the US, hundreds of billions of dollars, a massive GOP voting bloc, and an exhaustive list of advocacy and policy initiatives running on the Koch family's dime, it's time for another Koch to step up and succeed David in the family business.With all of David's children under the age of 25, and Charles' eldest child, Elizabeth, uninvolved in Koch Industries or its network at large, that role falls to Chase Koch, 42, Charles' son. Charles' son doesn't even have his own Wikipedia page (his sister Elizabeth, a writer and publisher, does). While Elizabeth calls herselfapolitical, Chase has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republican congressional candidates, including Sens. Mike Lee of Utah, James Lankford of Oklahoma, and Tim Scott of South Carolina, Politico reported. He has not given any money to President Donald Trump's campaigns, which isn't surprising, given that his father and uncle have taken overt steps to distance themselves from the GOP after Trump won the primary and oppose many of his proposed ideas and policies, including his tariffs, travel ban, and stance on immigration. Chase graduated from Texas A&M in the early 2000s with a degree in marketing, unlike his father, uncle, and grandfather, the dynasty-builder Fred Koch, who all studied engineering at MIT. After graduation, Chase remained in Austin, Texas, playing Led Zeppelin covers in a garage band.

Bill Black: Is it Cynical to Believe the System is Corrupt? - Jerri-Lynn here. This Real News Network interview with Bill Black evaluates evidence that the US political and economic system is corrupt. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows most US citizens believe the political and economic system is rigged against them, and Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren also echo this sentiment. Black is a a white collar criminologist, former financial regulator, and associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. He’s also the author of the book, The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and a frequent contributor to Naked Capitalism.

Internal Revenue Service Sends New Round Of Letters To Crypto Holders - Last week, the United States Internal Revenue Service sent another round of letters to crypto traders called CP2000. These notices were sent to traders of some crypto exchanges due to inconsistencies found in their tax reports. Using the information provided by third-party systems — such as crypto exchanges and payment systems — the IRS has been able to determine the amounts traders owe and included the amounts in dollars in the notices. Individuals who have received these notices are required to pay within 30 days, starting on the delivery date indicated in the letter.If you think the exchange — on which you traded — provided your details to the bureau, you are probably right, but do not hold it against the exchanges. The regulation stipulates that all broker and barter exchange services are required by law to annually report trader activity on a 1099-B form, send it directly to the IRS and send a copy to the recipient.In addition, transaction payment cards and third-party network transactions are also required to report on Form 1099-K, send it directly to the IRS and send a copy to the payee.The IRS has not yet published specific guidelines for crypto exchanges. In fiat stocks, every broker must submit 1099-B to the IRS and send a copy to the trader. In crypto, the IRS still didn't publish clarification whether exchanges should provide 1099-K or 1099-B. Exchanges can benefit from the uncertain situation to provide 1099-K — like Coinbase Proand Gemini — but some do not provide any forms, such as Kraken and Bittrex. Meanwhile, the exchange must provide the users with the 1099-K copy by the end of every January, so they will be available to use it in their capital gains report. The users, at the same time, don't submit the IRS their copy of 1099-K, as they only use this form to calculate and report on their capital gains or loss report.

 Libra: The Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns - Barry Eichengreen - Details about Libra, Facebook’s planned global currency, are not easy to decipher. This may be because the currency’s own designers are making up things on the fly. More likely is that they have a reasonably complete plan but are reluctant to reveal it in order to avoid exciting regulators in the US and abroad (see Brunnermeier et al. 2019 for more on the repercussions for the international monetary system of digital currencies). But no one knows for sure.Nevertheless, more information continues to be unveiled, as regular visitors to Libra’s website are aware. What follows is my assessment of what we know, what we don’t, and what it means for the project. Libra will function like a currency board. It will be backed by high-quality, liquid financial assets denominated in a collection of stable currencies. This is not unlike the dollar-euro basket-based currency board proposed by Domingo Cavallo during his ill-fated return as Argentine economy minister in 2001.  Whether Libra will be fully backed or almost fully backed is unclear. The document describing the Reserve explains that “the association will pay out incentives in Libra coin to Founding Members to encourage adoption by users, merchants, and developers”. If these payments are in exchange for deposits of fiat currencies by the Founding Members, then this is just an exchange of fiat for Libra like any other – it is not an “incentive” to develop anything. If it is a transfer not made in exchange for fiat, then a portion of the outstanding Libra is not backed. The Reserve will earn interest, or seigniorage. In the case of central banks like the Federal Reserve, seigniorage profits are turned over to the national treasury, which spends them (hopefully) in a manner consistent with the preferences of voters and their elected representatives. In the case of Libra, seigniorage profits “will first go to support the operating expenses of the association – to fund investments in the growth and development of the ecosystem, grants to nonprofit and multilateral organizations, engineering research, etc”.

Regulators aren’t done rolling back Volcker Rule — Banks notched a clear victory this past week when regulators approved a significant rollback of the Volcker Rule. But the agencies aren’t finished revamping the Dodd-Frank Act restrictions on bank trading. In addition to the steps already taken, the regulators said they would address the “covered funds” portion in an upcoming proposal. The original 2013 rule, the idea of which was first conceived by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, not only banned proprietary trading but also limited bank stakes in private equity and hedge funds to prevent the type of short-term risky bets that helped precipitate the financial crisis. Banks have long argued that the provision restricting funds is too broad and confusing, unnecessarily capturing investment activities that lawmakers did not intend to prohibit in the 2010 law, like venture capital funds or family wealth management vehicles. “The covered funds side of the rule didn’t entirely make sense because … it doesn’t matter what the fund does,” said Joseph Vitale, a partner at Schulte Roth & Zabel. “It doesn’t matter whether the fund is engaging in prop trading or long term investments. … The fund is covered by the rule and investments in that fund are largely prohibited.” When first proposing a revamp of the Volcker Rule in May 2018, the five regulatory agencies suggested making high-level changes to the covered funds section, including expanding exemptions for underwriting, market-making and risk-mitigating hedging activities, as well as exempting prime brokerage transactions. Those changes were all adopted as proposed when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency approved them on Aug. 20. (The other three agencies are expected to sign off shortly.) But at the FDIC board meeting, officials said the agency plans to issue a subsequent proposal with the other four regulators to address changes to the covered funds definition. “Additional fine-tuning is necessary on the restrictions associated with covered funds, and we plan to make such changes through a future rulemaking,” said FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams.

Goldman Cuts Rates On Its Savings Account For The Second Time, With Fed Now Sure To Follow - Back on July 1, almost a month before the Fed, Goldman first indicated what is coming when it cut the the interest rate on its popular Marcus savings account from 2.25% to 2.15%. 30 days later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell followed. Now, less than three weeks before the September FOMC meeting, Goldman has cut rates again - hardly just a "mid-cycle adjustment" - and telegraphing that now only is a second rate cut from the Fed now 100% assured, but more will follow. While there is no one more certain sign that the Fed will do the same next month, it won't come as a surprise to the market which has long been pricing in 100% odds of at least one rate cut next month, and as of this morning, the odds of a 50bps cut are 15%, although at least according to Goldman's Marcus platform, those hoping for a double hit of easing will be disappointed.

Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash -- The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape.The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more.But regardless, everyone’s “real” debt is likely much bigger, since the official totals miss a lot of unfunded liabilities and other obligations.Debt is an asset owned by the lender. It has a price, which—like anything else—can go up or down. The main variable is the lender’s confidence in repayment, which is always uncertain.But there are degrees of uncertainty. That’s why (perceived) riskier debt has higher interest rates than (perceived) safer debt. The way to win is to have better insight into the borrower’s ability to repay those loans.If a lender owns debt in which his confidence is low, but you believe has value, you can probably buy it cheaply. If you’re right, you’ll make a profit—possibly a big one. That is exactly what happens in a recession. While it’s easy to point fingers at profligate consumers, households largely spent the last decade reducing their debt. The bigger expansion has been in government and business. Let’s zoom in on corporate debt. The US investment-grade bond universe is considerably more leveraged than it was ahead of the last recession: Compared to earnings, US bond issuers are about 50% more leveraged now than in 2007. In other words, they’ve grown debt faster than profits.Many borrowed cash not to grow the business, but to buy back shares. It’s been, as my friend David Rosenberg calls it, a giant debt-for-equity swap.There’s another factor, though. Today’s “investment-grade” universe contains a higher proportion of riskier companies. The lowest investment grade tier, BBB, now constitutes half of all issuers: All these are just one downgrade away from being high-yield “junk bonds.”The best data I can find shows that there are roughly $3 trillion worth of BBB bonds and another roughly $1 trillion worth of lower-rated bonds that would still be called “high-yield.” If it happens like last time, the ratings agencies will wait until their fate is already sealed before they cut ratings on these zombies. But that’s only part of the problem. I expect liquidity in these below-investment-grade bonds to disappear quickly in the next financial crisis. If enough shareholders want out at the same time, this can force them to sell fund assets on short notice. When the recession hits, we will see junk bonds—and the riskier end of corporate debt generally—go into surplus.  There will be more available for sale than investors want to buy. The solution will be prices dropping to a point that attracts buyers. I don’t know where that point is, but it’s a lot lower than now. But there’s a problem. We talked about that $3 trillion worth of BBB bonds. Any that are downgraded by merely one grade will no longer qualify as “investment grade.” That means that many pension funds, insurance funds, and other regulated entities by law won’t be able to hold them.  More money is going to be lost by more people reaching for yield in this next high-yield debacle than all the theft and fraud combined in the last 50 years.

The Bizarre Action in U.S. Treasuries Is Linked to the U.S. National Debt and the Repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act -- Pam Martens - Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 258 points but the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury fell below 1.50 percent. In a normal market, if stocks are rallying that means there is confidence in the trajectory of economic growth in the U.S. When yields are collapsing on U.S. Treasuries, that means there is no confidence of sustained growth in the economy. So you can see why yesterday’s market activity is a serious contradiction of norms. We believe the Treasury market is already discounting (looking ahead and factoring in) what the next recession is going to look like because of constraints on how much fiscal spending the Federal government can deploy.  To understand just how unprecedented the current amount of national debt is, one has to have some historical figures. At the beginning of the Bill Clinton Presidency in January 1993, the U.S. national debt stood at $4 trillion.   It took more than two centuries for the U.S. national debt to reach $4 trillion but in just the past 26 years, the national debt has grown by $18.5 trillion for a total of $22.5 trillion today. In just the past two and a half years since President Donald Trump took office, the national debt has grown by $2.5 trillion. One would think that if the national debt is skyrocketing at least some of that largesse might be trickling down to the average folks. Instead, the national debt has been on the same trajectory as income and wealth inequality in the United States – both have reached unprecedented levels. The country has the Wall Street-friendly Bill Clinton administration to thank for this mess. He created the heads-we-win, tails-you-lose financial system that has allowed Wall Street to fleece Main Street with impunity since November 12, 1999 – the day that Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act.  Today, just five Wall Street banks control the majority of assets and deposits out of the more than 5,000 banks and savings associations that exist in the U.S. today. The same Wall Street banks are allowed to charge upwards of 20 percent or more on consumer credit cards while paying 2 percent or less to their depositors. Simply put, Clinton inked the contract on a massive wealth transfer system in America. (See also how Wall Street is looting two-thirds of your retirement account.)

Guess What Warren Buffett Is Doing With His Money Right Now - Does Warren Buffett believe that a major financial crisis is coming?  In life, what people do is far more important than what they say, and what Warren Buffett is doing with his money right now speaks volumes.  During the second half of 2019, a lot of the “experts” are warning about the possibility of a market crash, and corporate insiders have been selling stocks at a rate that we haven’t seen since the last financial crisis.  There appears to be a widespread belief that the market is about to take a really negative turn, and we haven’t seen this sort of a “race for the exits” in a very long time.  But when there is a lot of fear on Wall Street, that can sometimes be an opportunity to make a lot of money. Warren Buffett certainly hasn’t been afraid to “zig” when others are “zagging” over the years, and if he believed that there were great opportunities in the marketplace right now he would not hesitate to strike.But as you will see below, he’s not doing that. Instead of pumping his company’s cash into the stock market, Buffett has decided to hoard it. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway currently has 122 billion dollars that is just sitting there and doing nothing at all… Warren Buffett, known for being one of the world’s most prescient investors, has kept quiet on whether U.S. equities are too expensive at a time when the global economy is slowing, Bloomberg reports. But he’s reportedly hoarding a record $122 billion in cash at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., leading to some speculation that he sees a recession on the horizon, or at least is sending some sort of warning. The cash pile is more than half the value of Berkshire’s $208 billion portfolio of public companies, and the only time that percentage has reportedly been higher since 1987 was in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

 CFPB says Chicago debt collector made bogus threats against consumers - A Chicago-area debt collector threatened to sue and garnish the wages of consumers in violation of federal law, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said in a consent order. The CFPB alleged that Asset Recovery Associates in Lombard, Ill., also threatened to place liens against consumers' homes. The debt collector was ordered to pay at least $36,800 in restitution and a $200,000 fine to the CFPB. The debt collector made false statements and engaged in deceptive practices against consumers while attempting to collect a debt in violation of the Federal Debt Collection Practices Act, according to the agency's consent order, released Wednesday. Despite the company's threats, “it did not intend to take such action,” the bureau said in the 28-page order. The company, also known as Financial Credit Service Inc., also falsely told consumers that company employees were attorneys and that their credit reports would be negatively affected if they did not pay their debts, the CFPB said. Bruce Cohen, the president of Asset Recovery, did not respond to a request for comment. The CFPB ordered Asset Recovery to record and retain all incoming and outgoing calls with consumers and create a plan to identify all affected consumers. Asset Recovery has a history of regulatory trouble and consumer complaints. In 2006, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan filed a lawsuit against the company and Cohen alleging the firm purchased uncollectible debts that had been discharged in bankruptcy or that were not actually owed by the consumer being contacted. Sub

 Consumer groups, lenders find common cause against CFPB mortgage provision - Consumer advocates and lenders are joining forces to try to revamp or eliminate a key part of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's "qualified mortgage" rule establishing underwriting standards for most of the housing market. Lenders fear the market will take a major hit under an agency plan released last month that would end an exception to QM given to loans bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Under current rules, the CFPB requires lenders to verify a borrower's ability to repay a loan by giving protections to QM loans with certain features such as a 43% debt-to-income ratio. But that requirement was never fully implemented because the CFPB granted an exemption from the DTI limit if Fannie and Freddie bought the loan. With the so-called QM patch set to expire in January 2021, consumer advocates are concerned that loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers with DTI limits above 43% will no longer be eligible to be sold to Fannie or Freddie, making lenders far less likely to originate them. “The question on the table is should 43% DTI—or 45% DTI—be the cutoff for a loan to be called a qualified mortgage?” said Eric Stein, a senior vice president and housing expert at Self Help Credit Union, an affiliate of the Center for Responsible Lending. “And if 43% is the cutoff, does that mean some loans are not going to be made or will they have riskier terms and higher prices?” Though advocates and industry are rarely aligned, they are starting to coalesce around a plan that would call for the elimination of the CFPB’s 43% DTI limit, which would also scrap a little-known list of underwriting requirements called Appendix Q. Meg Burns, a senior vice president at the Housing Policy Council, is leading the effort to build consensus around scrapping the limit altogether. Lenders, trade associations, consumer advocates and civil rights groups have signed a draft letter proposing that the CFPB remove any DTI requirement and allow the QM definition to be based solely on safe product features. "Debt to income is not intended to be a stand-alone measure of capacity to repay, and it is not an indicator of credit risk on its own," said Burns, a former senior associate director in the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Office of Housing and Regulatory Policy. "DTI is relevant only in the context of the full financial profile of the household; it cannot be a stand-alone independent measure of credit capacity.”

1.5 Million Vacant US Homes- These Cities Have The Most Zombie Foreclosures - Attom Data Solutions has published its Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report that shows over 1.5 million (1,530,563) homes and condos vacant in 3Q19, which represents about 1.6% of the national housing stock. Attom  examined county tax assessor data of 98 million single-family homes and condos for vacancies, foreclosure status, and owner-occupancy status. During the quarter there were 304,000 homes in the process of foreclosure, with 3.2% "zombie" foreclosures, a situation that occurs when homeowners abandon a home after receiving a foreclosure notice.      The report showed a total of 9,612 zombie foreclosures nationwide. New York had the most zombie properties (2,428), followed by Florida (1,634), Illinois (985), Ohio (891) and New Jersey (463). The top 10 metropolitan areas with zombie properties are New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (1,566); Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI (534); Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL (506); Cleveland-Elyria, OH (431); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (351); Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (281); Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY (174); Rochester, NY (172); Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD (171); and Jacksonville, FL (155).  The counties with the most zombie properties are Suffolk, NY (475); Cuyahoga, OH (392); Nassau, NY (322); Cook, IL (316); Broward, FL (181); Pinellas, FL (174); Palm Beach, FL (172); Miami-Dade, FL (153); Monroe, FL (143); and Duval, FL (131). Zipcodes with the most zombie properties are 44105 in Cleveland, OH (57); 44108 in Cleveland, OH (54); 61605 in Peoria, IL (53); 44112 in Cleveland, OH (37); 14701 in Jamestown, NY (30); 11967 in New York, NY (28); 11520 in New York, NY (27); 11717 in New York, NY (27); 34668 in Tampa, FL (26); and 12078 in Gloversville, NY (26).  ATTOM's 3Q19 report also found the highest levels of vacant investor-owned properties were in Indiana (8.8%), Kansas (6.7%), Minnesota (6.0%), Ohio, (5.9%) and Rhode Island (5.8%). The zipcodes with the highest number of vacant investor-owned properties were in 29928 in Hilton Head Island, SC (4,941); 48505 in Flint, MI (2,828); 29582 in Myrtle Beach, SC (2,728); 29572 in Myrtle Beach (2,325); 48504 in Flint, MI (1,774); 48227 in Detroit, MI (1,733); 92262 in Riverside, CA (1,727); 48228 in Detroit, MI (1,670); 19132 in Philadelphia, PA (1,648); and 48224 in Detroit, MI (1.627).  "The blight of vacant, decaying properties facing foreclosure has declined dramatically across the United States – another good-news offshoot of the housing boom that's gone on for eight years," "A handful of areas still face notable problems with homes abandoned by owners after they get hit with foreclosure claims."

Mortgage Defaults Rise First Time Since Financial Crisis -- Defaults are up for the first time since the great financial crisis. But as rates fall, a refi surge will help millions. The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor shows the first annual rise in defaults since the crisis.  An estimated 243K borrowers defaulted on first lien mortgages in Q2 2019

• While the quarter ending on a Sunday certainly played a factor in the rise in defaults, a noticeable overall slowdown in the decline in default activity has been observed.
• The national default rate rose by 3% compared to Q2 2018, the first such annual rise since the financial crisis (adjusting for the 2017 hurricane season)
• The national delinquency rate fell by 7% in July, offsetting the bulk of June’s calendar-related spike
• At 3.46%, July 2019’s delinquency rate is the lowest of any July on record (dating back to 2000)
• Serious delinquencies (all loans 90 or more days delinquent but not in active foreclosure) fell below 445,000 for the first time since June 2006
• Despite the Q2 year-over-year rise in defaults, overall seriously delinquent inventory (loans 90 or more days past due) is down by 17% from last year due to continued strong cure activity
•  Prepayment activity jumped 26% from June to its highest level in nearly three years and 58% above this time last year as falling interest rates continue to fuel refinance incentive
• There are now 9.7M refinance candidates in the market.
• Rates have since fallen to 3.50% near a two-and-a-half year low, resulting in the most refinance incentive in the market since late 2016

Notes: The above Black Knight chart and bullet points contain some unpublished numbers. Those bullet points do not match the link at the top. Black Knight was gracious enough to send me an updated numbers and an unpublished chart. Refinance Candidates Under Different Interest Rate Scenarios Another 1/8 point decline in rates would increase the number of refinance candidates by 1.5M to 9.7M - a 18% rise in refi incentive.  Likewise, a 1/8 point increase in the 30-year rate would decrease the number of refinance candidates by 1.3M to 6.9M, a 16% decline.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate declined in July - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.61%, down from 0.63% in June. Freddie's rate is down from 0.78% in July 2018.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since November 2007.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to 0.6% range - so this is close to a bottom.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Declined in July, Lowest Since June 2007 - Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency declined to 0.67% in July, from 0.70% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.88% in July 2018. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since June 2007. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.51% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.22% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (93% of portfolio), only 0.32% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. The increase in the delinquency rate in late 2017 was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market. I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.4 to 0.6 percent or so to a cycle bottom.

 Mini refinance boom goes bust, as mortgage rates turn higher - It didn’t take much to end the party in the refinance market. A small tick higher in mortgage rates caused the sudden surge in refinances to retreat just as quickly. That pushed total mortgage application volume down 6.2% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was 66% higher annually, as rates were still higher last year. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 3.94% from 3.90%, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. The rate was 84 basis points lower than a year ago and 14 basis points lower than four weeks earlier. “U.S. Treasury yields were volatile over the course of the week, as the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China continued to generate uncertainty among investors,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “Rates increased for the first time since the week of July 12.” Despite that, mortgage applications to refinance a home loan fell 8% for the week. They were still 167% higher than a year ago, proving how volatile the weekly moves are despite rates being lower. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 62.4 percent of total applications from 62.7 percent the previous week Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which are less sensitive to rate changes, fell 4% last week and were just 2% higher than a year ago. “The drop in rates this summer have not yet led to a significant boost in activity. Uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook and low supply [of homes for sale] continue to be the predominant headwinds for prospective homebuyers,” Kan said.

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2019. ... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 167 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago...“U.S. Treasury yields were volatile over the course of the week, as the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China continued to generate uncertainty among investors. Rates increased for the first time since the week of July 12, but were still 80 basis points lower than the beginning of the year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With rates edging higher, refinances and purchase applications fell, at 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively.” Added Kan, “Purchase applications were still up around 2 percent year-over-year last week, but the drop in rates this summer have not yet led to a significant boost in activity. Uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook and low supply continue to be the predominant headwinds for prospective homebuyers.”..The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 3.94 percent from 3.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.1% in June --The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. Here is the opening of the report: U.S. house prices rose in the second quarter of 2019, up 1.0 percent according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 5.0 percent from the second quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.2 percent from May.“House prices rose again in all states and the top 100 metro areas, but the pace of growth has slackened,” said Dr. William Doerner, FHFA Supervisory Economist. “The majority of states and cities are experiencing slower house price gains than they did a year ago, even with constrained housing supply and extremely attractive mortgage rates.” [Read more] The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.1% year-over-year in June -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.  From S&P: Phoenix Replaces Las Vegas as Top City in Annual Gains According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.1% annual gain in June, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, down from 2.4% in the previous month. Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In June, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 5.5% increase, and Tampa with a 4.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending June 2019 versus the year ending May 2019. .. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.6% in June. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.3% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites did not report any gains. In June, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. “Home price gains continue to trend down, but may be leveling off to a sustainable level,”. “The average YOY gain declined to 3.0% in June, down from 3.1% the prior month. However, fewer cities (12) experienced lower YOY price gains than in May (13). “The southwest (Phoenix and Las Vegas) remains the regional leader in home price gains, followed by the southeast (Tampa and Charlotte). With three of the bottom five cities (Seattle, San Francisco, and San Diego), much of the west coast is challenged to sustain YOY gains. For the second month in a row, however, only Seattle experienced outright decline with YOY price change of -1.3%. The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index YOY price change in June 2019 of 3.1% is exactly half of what it was in June 2018. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The National index is 13.2% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.2% (SA) in June.  The National index is up 53.1% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA). The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Lower YoY Price Gains in July compared to June --The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.    From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Phoenix Posts Largest YoY Gains Annual home price gains continued their gradual slowdown in June, although the pace of those declines has slowed from earlier this year. While prices are still climbing, the rate of annual appreciation appears to have leveled off near its long-term average, after consistently falling from a high point reached in the spring of last year.…Housing demand remains strong as buyers are encouraged by rising wages and by mortgage rates that just keep falling amid growing economic uncertainty. Would-be buyers stand with pre-approved mortgages in hand. However, they’ve become unwilling to pay escalating prices for the relatively low inventory of homes that are on the market and instead are making sellers wait and even drop list prices. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 2.9% in July, down from 3.1% in June. The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 1.9% YoY in July from 2.1% in June, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.6% YoY compared to 1.8% YoY in June.

NAR: "Pending Home Sales Decline 2.5% in July" -- From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Decline 2.5% in July - Pending home sales fell in July, reversing course on two consecutive months of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major regions, each reported a drop in contract activity, although the greatest decline came in the West.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings,decreased 2.5% to 105.6 in July, down from 108.3 in June. Year-over-year contract signings fell 0.3%, doing an about-face of the prior month’s increase....All regional indices are down from June. The PHSI in the Northeast fell 1.6% to 93.0 in July and is now 0.9% lower than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 2.5% to 101.0 in July, 1.2% less than July 2018.Pending home sales in the South decreased 2.4% to an index of 122.7 in July, but that number is 0.1% higher than last July. The index in the West declined 3.4% in July to 93.5 but still increased 0.3% above a year ago. This was well below expectations of a 0.3% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.

Homeowners are sitting on a record amount of cash, but they’re not really tapping it - The combination of rising home prices and falling mortgage rates has U.S. homeowners sitting on a veritable fortune in home equity. The collective amount of money borrowers could pull out of their homes, while still retaining 20% equity, hit a record $6.3 trillion in the second quarter of this year, according to a new reading from Black Knight, a mortgage data, technology and analytics company. So-called tappable equity grew by more than $335 billion during the quarter. The total is 26% more than the mid-2006 peak of $5 trillion. Roughly 45 million mortgage holders have excess equity, and half of them have mortgage rates higher than 4.25%, making a refinance not only possible but attractive. The average rate on the 30-year fixed is now around 3.6%. The majority of these borrowers also have top credit scores. Falling mortgage rates over the past several months have caused a surge in overall refinance activity, but despite the record housing wealth, homeowners have been highly conservative about taking cash out. In 2006, 89% of refinances were cash-out, according to Freddie Mac. In 2012, when home prices crashed, that share dropped to 12%. But even now, with prices back above their previous peak and mortgage rates much lower, cash-out refinances are just 61% of the total pool of refinances. “I think you’re seeing a little bit of reluctance both on the side of lenders and on the side of borrowers,” During the last housing boom, homeowners were using their homes like ATMs, and the lenient mortgage market of the time allowed them to take all the equity, and even more, than they had. When home prices plummeted, millions of borrowers fell underwater on their mortgages, owing more than their homes were worth. That caused an epic foreclosure crisis. Homeowners may now be concerned that the heat in home prices is not only cooling, but that prices in some markets may actually fall. Prices were still gaining by 3.1% annually in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, but that is half the gain that homeowners were seeing a year ago. In some major markets, like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco, prices are barely in the positive, and in Seattle prices were actually 1% lower compared with a year ago. 

Personal Income increased 0.1% in July, Spending increased 0.6% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $23.9 billion (0.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $44.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.1 billion (0.6 percent).  Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in July and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. The July PCE price index increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and the July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.6 percent year-over-year.  The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2019 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.The increase in personal income was below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was slightly above expectations.Note that core PCE inflation was at expectations.

US consumer spending increases solidly; income tepid - U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July as households bought a range of goods and services, which could further allay financial market fears of a recession, but the pace of growth in consumption is unlikely to be sustained amid tepid income gains. The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.3% gain in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending advancing 0.5% last month. The report added to trade and inventory data in suggesting that while the economy was slowing, it was not losing altitude rapidly. A year-long trade war between Washington and China has spooked financial markets. The U.S. yield curve has inverted, stoking fears that the longest economic expansion in history was in danger of being interrupted by a recession. The economy is largely losing speed as the stimulus from the White House’s $1.5 trillion tax-cut package and a government spending blitz fades. The U.S.-China trade conflict has weighed heavily on manufacturing and business investment, which contracted in the second quarter. Given the trade war-driven weakness in business investment and manufacturing, slowing global growth as well as persistently low domestic inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again next month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the economy was in a “favorable place,” but reiterated that the U.S. central bank would “act as appropriate” to keep the economic expansion on track. The Fed lowered its short-term interest rate by 25 basis points last month for the first time since 2008, citing trade tensions and slowing global growth. Consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in July as a drop in the cost of food was offset by a surge in energy goods and services. The PCE price index edged up 0.1% in June.

Consumer spending, particularly on durable goods, continues to be strong - Earlier this week I wrote about the state of the short leading indicators. On Monday, manufacturers new orders came in positive.   This morning, consumer spending on durable goods, as well as overall, also improved sharply: If a consumer led recession were close at hand, I would expect consumer spending on durables to decline significantly. Obviously, that hasn’t happened. While I am at it, here is the updated comparison of real personal consumption expenditures with real retail sales, measured YoY: Going back over 50 years, typically the latter has both improved more earlier in the cycle, and decelerated into decline first later in the cycle. The present picture continues to be late cycle with no imminent sign of any actual downturn. Left to its own devices, the chances of a near term recession in the economy are receding dramatically.*

Real Disposable Income Per Capita in July - With the release of this morning's report on July Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. This is down from last month's 0.37% nominal and down from the 0.26% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 3.82% nominal and 2.41% real. Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015. Disposable income began a faster increase in 2012 and 2013 that continues. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013. It will be interesting to see how the recent tax legislation affects the trend over time. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 95.5% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up only 37.7%.

For The First Time Ever, The $100 Bill Overtakes The $1 Bill In Circulation Volume - As the IMF's blog points out, a curious thing has happened in US currency: the $100 bill recently overtook the ubiquitous $1 bill in circulation volume, for the first time in history. In other words, the most valuable banknote in the United States has also become the most widely circulated. As shown in the next chart based on the latest Fed data, there are now more $100 bills circulating now than ever before, roughly doubling in volume since the global financial crisis. The $100 bill became the most circulated currency in the world in 2017, overtaking the $1 bill for the first time ever. Looking at broader aggregates reveals that while the amount of total currency in circulation - the value of all dollar bills outstanding - had plateaued around $800BN heading into the Global Financial Crisis, since then the pace of currency growth has almost doubled, and as of today there is roughly 1.75 trillion dollars in the form of various banknotes.

Consumer Confidence Declines Marginally in August - The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 16. The headline number of 135.1 was a decrease from the final reading of 135.8 for July. Today's number was below the Investing.com consensus of 129.5. “After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.” The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Americans Haven't Been This Confident About The Current Situation Since 2000 -- According to the latest survey from The Conference Board, Americans are most confident about the current situation since November 2000 (but expectations for the future dipped in August).

• Headline consumer confidence in August fell to 135.1 vs 135.8 in prior month.
• Present situation confidence rose to 177.2 vs 170.9 last month
• Consumer confidence expectations fell to 107.0 vs 112.4 last month

That is the highest level of 'Present Situation' since Nov 2000  The reading shows hiring and income gains are keeping consumers upbeat and assuaging concerns about the economy’s prospects in light of slowing global growth, volatile financial markets and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The level of confidence could allow for sustained household spending that remains a mainstay of the economy.The Labor Differential indicator exploded higher (from 33.1 to 39.4) back near record highs...  Plans to buy cars increased, while plans to buy appliances and homes eased. However, this level of decoupling between savings and confidence has historically not ended well...

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Lowest Level Since October 2016 -- The August Final came in at 89.8, down 8.6 from the July Final reading. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: The Consumer Sentiment Index posted its largest monthly decline in August 2019 (-8.6 points) since December 2012 (-9.8 points). The 2012 plunge reflected widespread fears of being pushed off the “fiscal cliff” due to rising taxes and falling government spending. The recent decline is due to negative references to tariffs, which were spontaneously mentioned by one-in-three consumers. Unlike concerns about the fiscal cliff, which were promptly resolved, Trump’s tariff policies have been subject to repeated reversals amid threats of higher future tariffs. Such tactics may have some merit in negotiations with China, but they act to increase uncertainty and diminish consumer spending at home. Unlike the repeated tariff reversals, negative trends in consumer sentiment cannot be easily reversed. The data indicate that the erosion of consumer confidence due to tariff policies is now well underway. Compared with those who did not reference tariffs, consumers who made spontaneous negative references to tariffs also voiced higher year-ahead inflation expectations, more frequently expected rising unemployment, and expected smaller annual gains in household incomes (see the chart). While the overall level of sentiment is still consistent with modest gains in consumption, the data nonetheless increased the likelihood that consumers could be pushed off the “tariff cliff” in the months ahead. [More...]  See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

How Long Can Over-Leveraged Consumers Prop Up The Economy? - Earlier this week, Spencer Schiff wrote an article noting the importance of consumer spending to the US economy and the consequences that will follow if Americans suddenly tighten up their wallets.  Schiff isn’t alone in his concern. A mainstream economist sounded a similar warning during a recent CNBC interview.In his article, Spencer pointed out the US economy’s dependence on consumer spending.The recent emergence of widespread economic weakness leaves consumer spending, which makes up approximately 70% of our GDP, as a crucial pillar supporting the current expansion. In fact, besides government outlays, it was the only major GDP component that contributed positively to growth in Q2. Clearly, any shift in consumer psychology/behavior could knock a critical support out from under our economy.”In fact, there are already signs that this could be happening. Consumer sentiment is falling, as Schiff noted.Now it appears the mainstream has picked up on the risk involved in basing an economy on consumer spending and consumption. During a CNBC interview, economist Jim O’Neill said the US economy is becoming “riskily dependent” on the “overleveraged consumer.”The economy’s strength … depends so much on consumption, which is fine unless financial conditions tighten unexpectedly when a lot of indebted US consumers won’t be able to afford to keep up the consumption they're doing.”O’Neill said in some ways, it’s a lot like 2008.

New recession warning: The rich aren’t spending - The rich have cut their spending on everything from homes to jewelry, sparking fears of a trickle-down recession that starts at the top. From real estate and retail stores to classic cars and art, the weakest segment of the American economy right now is the very top. While the middle class and broader consumer sections continue to spend, economists say the sudden pullback among the wealthy could cascade down to the rest of the economy and create a further drag on growth. Luxury real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis, with pricey markets like Manhattan seeing six straight quarters of sales declines. According to Redfin, sales of homes priced at $1.5 million or more fell 5% in the U.S. in the second quarter. Unsold mansions and penthouses are piling up across the country, especially in ritzy resort towns, with a nearly three-year supply of luxury listings in Aspen, Colorado, and the Hamptons in New York. Retailers to the 1% are faring the worst, with famed Barney’s filing for bankruptcy and Nordstrom posting three consecutive quarterly declines in revenue. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart and Target, which cater to the everyday consumer, are reporting stronger-than-expected traffic and growth. At this month’s massive Pebble Beach car auctions, known for smashing price records, the most expensive cars faltered on the auction block. Less than half of the cars offered for $1 million or more were able to sell. But cars priced at under $75,000 sold quickly — many for far more than their estimates. In the first half of 2019, art auction sales were down for the first time in years. Sales at Sotheby’s dropped 10% and Christie’s auction sales were down 22% from a year ago. There are many reasons for spending declines — tax changes, for instance, are to blame for some of the real estate slump. And parts of the high-end economy have retained their shine — from luxury new car sales to Swiss watches and fashion. Yet recent data suggest that the U.S. wealthy are beginning to shut their wallets. If their spending falls further, the broader economy could start to feel the pain. The top 10% of earners account for nearly half of all consumer outlays, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. But their spending has fallen over the past two years, while spending for the middle class has accelerated.

Gas prices drop to a 3-year Labor Day low, as more drivers hit the road this weekend - If you’re heading out on an end-of-summer road trip this Labor Day, you might find yourself spending less on fuel and more on food and fun. That’s thanks to what may be the lowest average nationwide gasoline rates for this holiday weekend in three years, according to AAA. Today’s average price of just more than $2.58 per gallon is 25 cents cheaper than during the Labor Day weekend last year, when it was $2.83, and 5 cents cheaper than the same period in 2017 ($2.63). Gas prices dropped in every U.S. state other than Hawaii compared to Labor Day 2018, with Idaho posting the largest decrease, at 16.8%. That means people will have more money in their pockets and they’ll be more likely to hit the road, said AAA spokesperson Jeanette Casselano. “When gas prices are cheaper, we tend to see more people traveling.” That’s in keeping with the findings of a consumer survey AAA did earlier in the year. Asked in February what they’d do if gas prices stayed the same or lower in 2019, 33% of respondents said they would go on at least one additional summer road trip and 27% said they would increase the distance of their trip.

Smart ovens have been turning on overnight and preheating to 400 degrees - At least three smart June Ovens have turned on in the middle of the night and heated up to 400 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. The ovens’ owners aren’t sure why this happened, and June tells The Verge that user error is at fault. The company is planning an update that’ll hopefully remedy the situation and prevent it from happening again, but that change isn’t coming until next month.One owner’s oven turned on around 2:30AM and broiled at 400 degrees Fahrenheit for hours while he slept, and he only noticed when he woke up four hours later. Nest cam footage captured the exact moment it turned on: the oven illuminates his dark, empty kitchen in a truly Black Mirror-like recording. This owner says his wife baked a pie around 11:30PM the night of the preheating incident, but she turned the oven off once she took the pie out. The June Oven debuted in 2015 as a $1,495 countertop oven that uses a camera and computer vision to identify food that’s been placed inside. The company raised nearly $30 million in funding and released its second-generation version in 2018 for $599. It’s billed as “seven appliances in one”: an air fryer, dehydrator, slow cooker, broiler, toaster, warming drawer, and convection countertop oven. It also pairs with an app that allows people to choose their temperature and cooking settings, as well as live stream their food as it cooks thanks to the built-in camera.

The year-long rash of supply chain attacks against open source is getting worse - A rash of supply chain attacks hitting open source software over the past year shows few signs of abating, following the discovery this week of two separate backdoors slipped into a dozen libraries downloaded by hundreds of thousands of server administrators. The first backdoor to come to light was in Webmin, a Web-based administration tool withmore than 1 million installations. Sometime around April of last year, according to Webmin developer Jamie Cameron, someone compromised the server used to develop new versions of the program. The attacker then used the access to distribute a backdoor that was downloaded more than 900,000 times and may have been actively used by tens of thousands of Internet-facing servers. The unknown attacker made a subtle change to a Webmin script called password_change.cgi. The change gave attackers the ability to send a command through a special URL that an infected Webmin server would then execute with root privileges. In version 1.890, which hadmore than 421,000 downloads between June, 2018 and last weekend, the backdoor was turned on by default. On versions 1.90, 1.91, 1.91, and 1.92—which collectively had more than 942,000 downloads—the backdoor was active only when admins changed a default setting that allowed expired passwords to be changed. Backdoored versions were distributed on SourceForge, which is the primary distribution source the Webmin website points to.

 "Chemical Activity Barometer Down in August" - Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Down in August: The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), fell 0.1 percent in August on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a similar drop in July and four months of gains. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was flat at 0.0 percent (3MMA).The unadjusted measure of the CAB fell 0.5 percent in August after a 0.1 percent gain in July. The diffusion index was 59 percent in August. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for July was revised upward by 0.58 points and that for June by 0.62 points.“A pattern of fluctuating CAB readings – months up followed by months down – indicates late-cycle activity,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The barometer signals gains in U.S. commerce into early 2020, but at a slow pace, while rising volatility suggests change may be coming.” ...Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index. This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue). The year-over-year change in the CAB suggests that the YoY increase in industrial production will probably slow further.

Durable goods orders jump in July, boosted by Boeing orders -Orders for durable goods rose 2.1% in July, the Commerce Department said Monday. It is the second straight monthly gain. Economists expected a 0.9% gain according to the MarketWatch survey. Details were weaker than the headline.The gain in orders was led by transportation, a 47.8% surge in aircraft and parts that is mainly Boeing BA, +0.85%   orders. Excluding that sector, orders fell 0.4%, the biggest drop since March.A key metric, orders for non-defense capital goods, rose 0.4% in July, but a gain in the prior month was revised down to a 0.9% gain from the prior estimate of 1.5% rise. Orders in this sector are now down 0.3% from a year ago.  Shipments of non-defense capital goods fell 0.7% in July, largest drop since Oct. 2016.Orders for machinery, primary metals and fabricated metals also declined. Big picture: The U.S. manufacturing sector is in a technical recession, struggling with trade tension, global weakness and the strong dollar. Economists think capital goods orders are likely to be weak in the third quarter. “No bottom yet for core orders,” said Ian Sheperdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The market is ignoring the durable goods orders and focusing on trade headlines.

 Core Durable Goods Orders Disappoint As Shipments Slump Most In 3 Years - Despite a headline beat (juiced by huge and volatile surges in defense and non-defense aircraft orders), core durable goods orders disappointed and capital goods shipments (ex-Air) slumped by the most since Oct 2016. Durable Goods Orders rose 2.1% MoM (well above the 1.2% rise expected) and YoY, durable goods rebounded into the positive...  Much of the surprise was driven by gains in aircraft orders:

• nondefense aircraft and parts new orders +47.8%
• defense aircraft and parts new orders +34.4%

But core durable goods orders disappointed (falling 0.4% MoM against expectations of no change)...  And moreover, shipments (ex-Air) fell by 0.7% MoM - the biggest drop since Oct 2016... The slump in sales of equipment suggests American businesses remained cautious about capital spending ahead of this month’s escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. The report compares with recent data that signal further cracks in the manufacturing sector. Markit's PMI posted its first contraction since 2009, and the Kansas City Fed's factory gauge shrank.

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Picks Up Pace" -- From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Picks Up Pace Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, shot up nine points to 17.9, its highest reading in nearly a year. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested faster expansion in August. The shipments index rose seven points to 17.6, and the capacity utilization index rose five points to 15.7, both reaching 11-month highs. The new orders index moved up from 5.5 to 9.3, while the growth rate of orders index was largely unchanged at 1.8. Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in August. The general business activity index pushed into positive territory for the first time in four months, rising nine points to 2.7. Similarly, the company outlook index rose to 5.0 following three months in negative territory. However, the index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks jumped nine points to 18.6, a reading well above average. Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and work hours in August. The employment index remained positive but retreated 11 points to 5.5, a level closer to average. Eighteen percent of firms noted net hiring, while 12 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index edged down to 4.0. Some improvement, but another weak regional report.

 Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Was Moderate in August" -- From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Was Moderate in August Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −12 in July to 1 in August, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. However, the third component, employment, fell....Survey results suggested that many firms saw employment decline while the average workweek increased in August. Respondents reported persistent wage growth but still struggled to find workers with the necessary skills.This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for August.Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

 August Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.  Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision.  The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each of the five indicators since 2001 (for those with data). The latest average of the five for August is 1.6, down from the previous month's 1.8. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.

Chicago PMI Up in August - The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator, made up of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment, and supplier deliveries compiled through surveys. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 50.4 in August from 44.4 in July, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 48.1. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release:Chicago Business Barometer™ Lifted to 50.4 in August The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 6.0 points to 50.4 in August, up from 44.4 in July. Only two of the Business Activity components saw a monthly decline, as Supplier Deliveries saw a sharp fall. [Source]Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 215,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 214,500 to 215,000.  The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Piled Up in Huge Lots, Volkswagen’s Reworked Diesels Trickle to Buyers - NYT - In 2015, the United States government said VW was in violation of the Clean Air Act after it had used “defeat devices” in its diesel vehicles to cheat on pollution tests. In the end, after paying huge fines and seeing key executives head to prison, VW agreed to buy back nearly 380,000 of the offending cars in the United States, to fix or scrap. If Ms. Dugdale, a sales representative for a produce supplier whose car loan was paid off in a buyback, ever felt nostalgic, she could have driven her new gasoline Jetta to an acres-large lot about 12 miles from her house where, in all likelihood, her old Jetta was parked along with a reported 23,000 other VW diesels. They are a fraction of the repurchased Jettas, Jetta SportWagens, Golfs, Audi A3s and Beetles similarly awaiting their fates in nearly two dozen lots scattered around the country. Nearly three years after Volkswagen started its buyback program, the automaker said it had approximately 100,000 of these diesels left to sell, after which it will abandon diesel cars in the American market. Demand is surprisingly high, dealers say. Why would anyone want a disgraced diesel? For the same reasons they wanted one before the scandal: economy. “I was looking for a car that got decent gas mileage,”   Mr. Heilbraun found a 2015 Golf with 38,000 miles on it for about $11,500, a huge savings over what it would have cost new. He now understands the cultish appeal of the cars, known for their turbocharged direct injection diesel engines. “It seems all of the TDI owners have the same opinion: ‘I don’t want to give up my TDI,’” he said. Diesel engines have a reputation for lasting hundreds of thousands of miles and for good fuel economy; Mr. Heilbraun gets more than 41 miles per gallon on his daily 30-mile round trip to work, he said.Before the fixed Volkswagens can be resold, the cars have to be modified to meet the terms of the consent decrees with state and federal agencies. The software that disguised the cars’ pollution levels has to be removed, and in many cases some parts may be replaced as well.Volkswagen dealers generally buy the cars at auction then put the “fixed” diesels through the certified pre-owned program, changing fluids and replacing iffy parts. “I could tell you the cars have been sitting two years,” said Rob Barcellona, pre-owned sales manager at Flemington VW, Audi, Porsche in Flemington, N.J. “Every vehicle we see needs brakes and tires. The brakes are rusted, and the tires are dry-rotted.” Batteries, windshield wipers, filters and fluids are commonly replaced, and sometimes shift cables are too.

Autoworkers vote to strike, denounce UAW treachery ahead of contract deadline with GM, Ford and Chrysler - American autoworkers are voting by lopsided margins to authorize strike action, in an expression of their determination to reverse four decades of concessions engineered by GM, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler and their United Automobile Workers (UAW) co-conspirators. Voting continues at plants throughout the country today and Wednesday. But the results at plants that have already voted have been nearly unanimous in favor of a strike. These include Fiat-Chrysler’s Sterling Heights Assembly (96 percent in favor) and Belvidere Assembly (94 percent), GM’s Tonawanda Powertrain (98 percent), GM’s Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly (96 percent) and Orion Assembly (91 percent). These last two are particularly significant. Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly, commonly known as Poletown, is one of the five GM plants slated for closure, and is currently slated to close its doors early next year. Orion Assembly was subjected to a secret memorandum of understanding signed by UAW Vice President Cindy Estrada that allowed the corporation to lay off full-time workers and replace them with low-paid contractors. Estrada is currently under investigation in the ongoing federal corruption probe of UAW officials who took money and perks under the table to sign pro-company contracts. Workers at the Ford Rouge Complex in Dearborn spoke with reporters from the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter over the weekend. Teams visited the Dearborn Truck Plant (DTP), AK Steel, Ford’s former Rouge Steel plant, and the Dearborn Diversified Manufacturing Plant (DDMP), where workers denounced the UAW for years of betrayals and corruption. Many were angered by the lack of information forthcoming from the UAW just days before contract expiration. Moreover, workers are anticipating that the new agreement will contain a massive attack on medical benefits, which has long been in the crosshairs of the companies. A tier-two worker asked in disgust, “Why would I give up my health care? That is a benefit that we have had here at Ford for decades before I even got here. Why would I all of a sudden agree to that? “That is the rumor on the shop floor. By the end of this contract, we are going to be paying at least 20 percent, maybe 40 percent, of medical insurance costs.

Panera is losing nearly 100% of its workers every year as fast-food turnover crisis worsens - If you think it sounds like a mathematical impossibility for a company to lose more than 100% of its workers every year, you’ve never worked in the fast-food industry. At fast-food restaurants, losing 100% of employees — and then losing still more of the employees hired to replace those workers — is a common, and worsening, labor problem. The case of Panera Bread shows just how deep the employee turnover issue is for restaurant companies. Panera loses close to 100% of workers every year, and by fast-food industry standards that’s considered good. “In the restaurant industry, turnover is 130%, turning over more than a full workforce every year,” said Panera bread CFO Michael Bufano at CNBC’s @Work Human Capital + Finance conference in July. “We are a little under 100%, but still a huge number.” The official Bureau of Labor Statistics turnover rate for the restaurant sector was 81.9% for the 2015–2017 period, but industry estimates are much higher, reaching 150%, and the problem has gotten worse in recent years. “It’s definitely been going up,” said Rosemary Batt, chair of HR Studies and International & Comparative Labor at the Cornell School of Industrial Labor Relations. Batt said decades of fast-food industry efforts to standardize and “routinize” jobs — take the skill out of them — has been intended to create turnover-proof jobs. “If you lose someone, it is not a real cost, because they are so easily replaceable. ... The industry has thrived on this HR model of turnover-proof jobs for many years, because they could get away with it,” she said, through a slack labor market or absorbing the cost of high turnover. But that model is being stretched. “Now turnover is absolutely excessive, and some chains are beginning to put numbers on the cost of turnover. I know some chains that are focused on it,” Batt said. “Because turnover is getting so serious and because chains have the ability to do the HR analytics, they can begin to cost out turnover and say, ‘This is not a cost we have taken seriously, because historically we were counting on high turnover model as acceptable.’”

Black women in the US have to work an extra 233 days to earn what a white man earns in a year. This calendar shows the visceral way the gender pay gap affects all races. - The gender pay gap between men and women in the US is still a big problem, and it affects some women more than others. By one measure, August 22, 2019, is "equal pay day" for black women in the US, as highlighted by the New York Times on Instagram. That is, Thursday marks the day when the typical black female worker would have earned as much in 2018 and 2019 to date as the typical white male worker would have earned in 2018 alone.That estimate is based on an analysis of wage data from the US Census Bureau done by the American Association of University Women. According to that report, median annual wages for full-time, year-round employed black women were 61% of median wages for similarly situated non-Hispanic white men in 2017, the most recent year for which data is available.January 1, 2018, would have finally earned today what a white man would have made over the course of 2018.The gender wage gap varies widely across different racial and ethnic groups in the US, reflecting the interplay of ongoing gender and racial inequalities. According to the AAUW analysis, non-Hispanic white women's median earnings were 77% of non-Hispanic white men's earnings; Asian women made 85% of what white men made; and Hispanic or Latina women earned just 53%.Across all racial and ethnic groups, full-time, year-round women's median earnings were 80% of men's median earnings. Here's when an "equal pay day" would fall for each of those groups in 2019, according to our calculations with results from the AAUW's report:

Raising the federal minimum wage isn’t just the right thing to do for workers—it’s also good for the economy -- Raising the federal minimum wage, which has now lapsed for the longest ever period without an increase, will benefit millions of low income workers and lift more than one million Americans out of poverty.  There is widespread agreement in the economics profession these days that, in contrast to outdated textbook theories, higher minimum wages have done exactly what they’re supposed to do: raise pay for low-wage workers with little, if any, effect on employment.That’s why it was surprising to see Mitch Albom, a millionaire fiction author and sports columnist, argue so vocally and misguidedly against the prospect of an increase in a recent opinion piece in the Detroit Free Press.The Raise the Wage Act, which boosts the minimum wage from the current paltry $7.25 per hour to $15 an hour by 2025, has passed the House of Representatives, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refuses to even bring it up for a vote in the Senate.  Albom takes Michigan Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib to task for proposing that the minimum wage should actually be raised to $20.“While raising people out of poverty should be a top priority, getting folks excited about a $20-an-hour minimum wage is not only irresponsible, it’s not well thought out,” Albom writes.“You can force businesses to raise wages, but you can’t force them to keep workers. And study after study, expert after expert, shows that, eventually, the higher the wages demanded, the fewer positions there will be.”The problem is both these statements are factually incorrect. A $15 minimum wage is ambitious only because of how long lawmakers have let the federal minimum wage stagnate at unlivable levels. Had the federal minimum wage been raised since the 1960s at the pace of rising labor productivity, it would be over $20 an hour today.Raising the minimum wage to more livable levels is enormously important to the health of an economy that relies on consumer spending for two-thirds of its strength. It is also a modest but important step in narrowing shamefully large gaps in wages and income between rich and poor Americans. What’s more, Representative Tlaib is right that $15 is just a bare minimum. A full-time earner at $15 an hour makes $31,000 a year—not nearly enough to afford a secure standard of living in any region of the country, but especially not in a large metropolitan area like Detroit.

Illinois coal industry grapples with legal marijuana, drug screening uncertainties  - Illinois mining industry employers and supervisors dove deep into gray areas in the legalization of pot in Illinois on Wednesday morning at the Illinois Mining Institute convention. The bottom line, delivered by a panel of newly-minted experts in Illinois’ fastest-evolving industry: Companies, take steps now to protect yourself on Jan. 1. “What’s important is that you get a policy in place, something that gives you a right to take action” when an employee has a drug issue, said Carbondale employment and labor attorney Shari Rhode. But the actions employers can take under the Cannabis Regulation and Taxation Act are a subject of ongoing debate. The law protects the right to enforce a “reasonable” drug-free workplace, but in Rhode’s opinion, it doesn’t enshrine pre-employment weed screenings or random drug testing for pot as reasonable measures. That has Rhode cautioning that testing for marijuana without cause for suspicion could open employers to accusations of discriminatory testing — and the Illinois Right to Privacy in the Workplace Act already prohibits penalizing an employee because they use legal substances outside of work. Once marijuana is legal, the best way to enforce a drug-free workplace is by monitoring employees, Rhode said. “You can do testing and discipline when you have a good faith belief that somebody is under the influence, and there are broad examples of what you may consider to be under the influence,” Rhode said. “But you have to observe a specific, articulable symptom.” That means educating supervisors on how to detect intoxication at work, from changes in speed, coordination or demeanor, to irrational behavior, to an accident on the job.

Policing For Profit- How Civil Asset Forfeiture Has Perverted American Law Enforcement - Picture this: You’re driving home from the casino and you've absolutely cleaned up – to the tune of $50,000. You see a police car pull up behind you, but you can’t figure out why. Not only have you not broken any laws, you’re not even speeding. But the police officer doesn’t appear to be interested in charging you with a crime. Instead, he takes your gambling winnings, warns you not to say anything to anyone unless you want to be charged as a drug kingpin, then drives off into the sunset. This actually happened to Tan Nguyen, and his story is far from unique. It’s called civil asset forfeiture and it’s a multi-billion dollar piggybank for state, local and federal police departments to fund all sorts of pet projects. With its origins in the British fight against piracy on the open seas, civil asset forfeiture is nothing new. During Prohibition, police officers often seized goods, cash and equipment from bootleggers in a similar manner to today. However, contemporary civil asset forfeiture begins right where you’d think that it would: The War on Drugs.In 1986, as First Lady Nancy Reagan encouraged America’s youth to “Just Say No,” the Justice Department started the Asset Forfeiture Fund. This sparked a boom in civil asset forfeiture that’s now become self-reinforcing, as the criminalization of American life and asset forfeiture have continued to feed each other. In sum, asset forfeiture creates a motivation to draft more laws by the legislature, while more laws create greater opportunities for seizure by law enforcement. This perverse incentive structure is having devastating consequences: In 2014 alone, law enforcement took more stuff from American citizens than burglars did. The current state of civil asset forfeiture in the United States is one of almost naked tyranny. Don’t believe us? Read on.

Home video security systems increasingly linked to US police departments in violation of democratic rights - Home video security systems across the United States are increasingly being integrated with police and law enforcement systems that access an expanding network of residential photos and recordings. In many cases, video streams and images are being uploaded into cloud storage accounts, categorized and shared via “neighborhood crime” databases that violate the basic democratic rights of the public.In the case of Ring—known as Ring Video Doorbell before the company was acquired by Amazon in February 2018—more than 400 police department partnerships have been established with the home security system across the US over the past year. According to a report in the Washington Post on Wednesday, the police department agreements allow authorities to obtain video streams from Ring homeowners in particular geographic areas and across specific timeframes.Although these law enforcement requests can be declined by homeowners, most consumers agree to the user terms thinking that they are, in the words of a Ring marketing campaign, “making their neighborhood a safer place.” The Amazon relationship with police departments also includes promotions—based on the number of downloads of its Ring Neighbors apps within a jurisdiction—whereby the equipment is given away for free in exchange for consumers signing up for the online services for as little $3 per month where video streams are stored in the cloud. Amazon Ring’s most popular system—a doorbell with a wide angle high-definition and night-vision video camera connected in real-time to a mobile app—has been installed in millions of homes across the country. While the Ring marketing message, along with that of law enforcement representatives, is that this expanding network of cameras is a shield against “criminals, intruders and thieves,” the reality is a vast expansion of illegal surveillance of the public.

New York Police Department collecting DNA from unsuspecting workers and youth - The New York Police Department (NYPD) has been collecting DNA samples from individuals without probable cause, in a blatant violation of the Fourth Amendment protection against unreasonable searches and seizures. In addition to collecting samples from people convicted of crimes, the police have taken DNA from people they have arrested or simply questioned. The samples often are taken without the person’s knowledge from objects that he or she has touched, such as cigarettes, coffee cups or water bottles.New York City’s genetic database, the Local DNA Index System, was established in 2009 and operates with little oversight. Since 2017, it has grown by about 29 percent. It includes 82,473 genetic profiles, approximately 31,400 of which—about 38 percent—came from people who were arrested or questioned, but had not been convicted of any crime, according to the Legal Aid Society.New York State also operates a genetic database that, according to state law, can only store the DNA of people convicted of crimes. Databases established by local authorities such as New York City, however, are not subject to state requirements. Getting one’s sample removed from the database requires a drawn-out legal process. Only seven DNA profiles were removed from the database in 2018. The NYPD claims to be operating within the law and asserts that it needs the database to apprehend violent criminals and clear the names of people who have been wrongly accused. Millions who have followed the news or have learned from their own experience know that the protestations of concern for the rights of the innocent by the nation’s largest police department are laughable.

De Blasio Panel Wants To Eliminate 'Racist' Gifted Programs In New York Schools -  A panel appointed by NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio to combat desegregation has recommended getting rid of public school programs for gifted and talented kids, as they are filled "mostly with white and Asian children," according to the New York Times.    If de Blasio adopts some or all of the proposals, "He risks alienating tens of thousands of mostly white and Asian families whose children are enrolled in the gifted programs and selective schools," the Times' Eliza Shapiro notes.   That said, the plan "may also face opposition from some middle-class black and Hispanic families that have called for more gifted programs in mostly minority neighborhoods as a way to offer students of color more access to high-quality schools."The panel’s report, obtained by The New York Times, amounts to a repudiation of former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s education agenda, which reoriented the system toward school choice for families, including more gifted and screened schools, to combat decades of low performance.Some of those policies deepened inequality even as student achievement rose. Mr. de Blasio has been sharply critical of his predecessor’s philosophy on education, but must now decide whether to dismantle some of the structures that Mr. Bloomberg helped to build. -New York Times According to the panel "made up of several dozen education experts," gifted programs and screened schools have "become proxies for separating students who can and should have opportunities to learn together." They have recommended replacing gifted schools with new magnet schools, "which have been used in other cities to attract a diverse group of students interested in a particular subject matter — along with enrichment programs that are open to students with varying academic abilities."If the mayor adopts the recommendations, elementary and middle schools would no longer be able to admit students based solely or largely on standardized exams or other academic prerequisites, and high schools would have diversity requirements.

A National Public School ‘Leadership’ Disaster: Private Firms Vetting Candidates for Superintendent - Long before Flint’s water crisis, the practice of outsourcing critical decisions to a small circle of individuals with little vested interest in the community was also the way to determine who would run Flint’s schools.In 2005, Walter Milton Jr. became superintendent of Flint City Schools in large part because the city hired a superintendent search firm that recommended him. But even before he officially took office, news broke that his application for the position included degrees he had not earned. After taking office, his first actions to close and consolidate schools drew opposition from parents and teachers who complained of overcrowded conditions and textbook shortages. More outrageensued when he hired a director of curriculum for the school district who had been convicted of child molestation. It’s not clear how Milton left his position, but his tenure lasted just 17 months and likely cost the district a hefty buy-out package.While multiple people are usually involved in hiring decisions of this type, at least one school board member blamed the search firm that recommended him.That firm—Schaumburg, Illinois-based Hazard, Young, Attea, and Associates (HYA)—overlooked things that should have turned up in a thorough background check, particularly his fake degree and problems with his previous tenure as superintendent of schools in Fallsburg, New York. In that position, he hired the very same person convicted of child molestation he would also hire in Flint. The man was a longtime business partner of Milton’s and raised much attention in Fallsburg. A state audit shortly after Milton left Fallsburg found that during his tenure he “was overpaid” for “vacation time, and personal items, like moving expenses, cellular phone bills, car washes and oil changes, restaurants, and video rentals.” Flint’s flawed search for a high-quality school superintendent is not at all unusual, and Walter Milton is a classic example of a widespread phenomenon: a questionable candidate thrust into the forefront of school district leadership due to the recommendation of a hired search firm. In an extensive investigation, Our Schools has found multiple cases in which private, for-profit companies paid by school districts to conduct searches for prospective new superintendents have recommended numerous candidates with:

• Falsified academic or professional credentials,
• Documented evidence of financial mismanagement or financial impropriety,
• Incidents of unethical behavior and conflicts of interest,
• Histories of combative work relationships with teachers, parents, school board members, or administrative staff, and
• Resumes filled with short tenures that could indicate a desire to endlessly job-hop to higher-paid positions and leave previous employers in the lurch.

 Video shows high school athletes giving Nazi salute and singing an obscure Nazi march song - A video that sparked outrage on social media shows a group of students from Pacifica High School in Orange County, California singing a Nazi marching song with their arms raised in a Nazi salute.The Garden Grove Unified School District, in which Pacifica High resides, issued a statement on Monday confirming that the incident occurred at an "off-campus student athletics banquet in an empty and unsupervised room at the facility" in November 2018, the Orange County Register reported.  Footage of the incident was recorded and shared on Snapchat, the school district said in a statement.The students were members of the school's 2018 boys' water polo team, the Orange County Register reported.Pacifica High School officials said in a press release that they were only made aware of the video four months later in March 2019, Garden Grove Unified wrote in an email to Insider. According to the email, the district office was unaware of the video until a few days ago."When Pacifica High School a dministrators first learned of this offensive video four months afterwards, the investigation included disparate accounts and lacked details that have since emerged," the district wrote. "With support from the district office, which was unaware of the video until a few days ago, and resources from organizations dedicated to combating hate and bias in schools, Pacifica High School administration realizes it did not respond to the incident with the gravity it deserved."

School Administration Reminds Female Students Bulletproof Vests Must Cover Midriff - —Explaining that such suggestive armor was inappropriate for an educational environment, Huntington High School officials reportedly reminded female students Tuesday that their bulletproof vests must cover their midriffs. “We’ve been seeing some students wearing revealing bulletproof vests, so I just wanted to remind all you ladies that your kevlar must cover all your vital organs,” said Vice Principal James Nelson on the morning announcements, forewarning students that if they lift their arms up and any part of their stomach is exposed, then they would be sent to the nurse’s office and forced to borrow one of the school’s own ballistic vests, which are large and unsightly. “This is about respecting your classmates as well as respecting yourself. It’s distracting, not to mention inappropriate, to use your bulletproof vest to present yourself in a sexual manner during the school day. You can wear whatever type of tactical gear you want when you’re at home or at the mall, but when you’re here, it must be a longer, more modest item of personal armor.” At press time, the students were reminded that they could still customize their kevlar vests any way they want.

George Washington owned slaves and ordered Indians killed. Will a mural of that history be hidden? WaPo --Victor Arnautoff didn’t just paint George Washington onto the walls of the San Francisco high school named after the first president in 1936. He painted Washington into them.Arnautoff used the fresco technique he had learned from his mentor, the masterful Mexican painter Diego Rivera. First came the arriccio, an underlayer of rough, light-brown plaster on which he would sketch his design. Then came the intonaco, a smooth, white plaster high in lime. While it was still wet, he added il colore, ground colored pigments that gave his murals life. As the plaster dried, a chemical reaction with the air around it called carbonatazione fused the color into the wall.  That is why now, as the San Francisco Board of Education has determined that it is harmful for students to view the murals’ depictions of Washington stepping over a dead Native American and commanding enslaved men on his plantation, they cannot be put into storage or moved to a museum. The murals — 13 individual works spanning 1,600 square feet of the entry hall and main stairwell — are part of the school.  The board first voted to paint over the murals, but after widespread public outrage, it partially reversed itself. The plan now is to cover them with solid panels, although supporters of the mural object and insist any covering must be removable. This is the story of the layers of history that will continue to exist underneath, whether the murals are covered by curtains, panels or paint.

Nevada school district avoids teacher's strike -- Nevada's Clark County School District averted a teacher’s strike this week after district officials and a local teachers' union reached a tentative deal. The union, Clark County Education Association, announced the agreement Wednesday, which includes a 3 percent salary raise, a step increase each year and a 4 percent increase in CCSD's health insurance premiums per month. District Superintendent Jesus Jara called the agreement "a fair deal for our educators who have the largest impact on student achievement,” according to Education Week.Jara had previously argued the district could not afford the $11 million to $15 million that would be necessary to give raises for professional development, leading to threats of a teachers strike. The district had previously offered a one-time payment for such raises, but the union declined, according to Education Week.Jara said Wednesday that hiring freezes and interest earnings meant the district is “trending positively in our revenue.” Before a deal was reached, several students in the district had used the video-sharing platform TikTok to organize a student walkout in solidarity with their teachers, who said they would avert a strike in the wake of the resolution. "This raise issue isn’t just about money — it’s driving teachers’ passion out," Gillian Sullivan, 16, who posted the initial video, told BuzzFeed News. "When teachers aren’t passionate, it really affects the students. When teachers don’t care about they’re teaching, students don’t care about what they’re learning."

 The Idea Was Wrong - The SAT Test Is Replacing Its Adversity Score - The company which administers the SAT college admissions test is replacing the so-called "adversity score" with a tool that will no longer reduce an applicant’s background to a single number, an idea the College Board’s chief executive now says was a mistake.Amid growing scrutiny of the role wealth plays in college admissions and in hopes of appearing "woke" and "politically correct", two years ago the College Board introduced its Environmental Context Dashboard to provide context for a student’s performance on the test and help schools identify those who have done more with less.In short, it was the SAT's way to implement affirmative action in test results. Skeptics said it was a terrible idea and it now appears they were right.The version used by about 50 institutions in a pilot program involved a formula that combined school and neighborhood factors like advanced course offerings and the crime rate to produce a single number. But critics called it an overreach for the College Board to score adversity the way it does academics. David Coleman, CEO of the College Board said some also wrongly worried the tool would alter the SAT results.“The idea of a single score was wrong,” he said, quoted by the AP. "It was confusing and created the misperception that the indicators are specific to an individual student."So now what?The New York City-based College Board announced several changes to the tool Tuesday, including the decision to give students access to the information about their schools and neighborhood starting in the 2020-2021 school year.Renamed “Landscape,” the revised tool will provide data points from government sources and the College Board that are seen as affecting education. They include whether the student’s school is rural, suburban or urban, the size of the school’s senior class, the percentage of students eligible for free- and reduced-price lunch, and participation and performance in college-level Advanced Placement courses at the school. Between 100 and 150 institutions are expected to pilot the new tool this year before it becomes broadly available next year. Admissions officers also will see a range of test scores at the school to show where the applicant’s falls, as well as information like the median family income, education levels and crime rates in the student’s neighborhood.

Flawed Algorithms Are Grading Millions of Students’ Essays -Every year, millions of students sit down for standardized tests that carry weighty consequences. National tests like the Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) serve as gatekeepers to higher education, while state assessments can determine everything from whether a student will graduate to federal funding for schools and teacher pay.Traditional paper-and-pencil tests have given way to computerized versions. And increasingly, the grading process—even for written essays—has also been turned over to algorithms.Natural language processing (NLP) artificial intelligence systems—often called automated essay scoring engines—are now either the primary or secondary grader on standardized tests in at least 21 states, according to a survey conducted by Motherboard. Three states didn’t respond to the questions.Of those 21 states, three said every essay is also graded by a human. But in the remaining 18 states, only a small percentage of students’ essays—it varies between 5 to 20 percent—will be randomly selected for a human grader to double check the machine’s work.But research from psychometricians—professionals who study testing—and AI experts, as well as documents obtained by Motherboard, show that these tools are susceptible to a flaw that has repeatedly sprung up in the AI world: bias against certain demographic groups. And as a Motherboard experiment demonstrated, some of the systems can be fooled by nonsense essays with sophisticated vocabulary. Essay-scoring engines don’t actually analyze the quality of writing. They’re trained on sets of hundreds of example essays to recognize patterns that correlate with higher or lower human-assigned grades. They then predict what score a human would assign an essay, based on those patterns.

American Education Continues To Fall Behind China -  Billionaires know what American education should focus on: It’s a four-letter acronym that is set to determine the future of the economy, but America is falling behind.  One simple acronym has pretty much become the key to landing a great career with a great salary: STEM.  It’s much more than a broadly sweeping catchall for “science, technology, engineering, and mathematics”. It’s the Holy Grail of employment and its where these four career paths come together to formulate the greatest progress to date.  That’s why STEM has seen so many celebrities jump on its bandwagon, including Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Oprah Winfrey, among many others. They all have the same message for America’s youth: If you want the brightest career, follow STEM. America won’t win the technology battle with a trade war, or by curtailing the number of Chinese students that get to study in the United States. America will only win this battle through education, and by creating a situation in which the country does not depend almost entirely on foreign minds for sweeping technological advances. And that means a stronger push for STEM education. While China is making moves to bolster STEM education as much as possible, the United States seems to have grown complacent on education, and STEM exists, but is hardly thriving. In a December 2018 report by the U.S. government’s National Science & Technology Council, the White House recognizes the importance of STEM, noting:“Now more than ever the innovation capacity of the United States--and its prosperity and security--depends on an effective and inclusive STEM education ecosystem.”The federal government also recognizes that “individual success in the 21st century economy is also increasingly dependent on STEM literacy; simply to function as an informed consumer and citizen of a world of increasingly sophisticated technology requires the ability to use digital devices and STEM skills such as evidence-based reasoning.” But somewhere between the report of recognition and the implementation, America’s STEM mission has grown tepid, while China’s is obsessive.

REVEALED – The colleges with the best return on your investment: MIT graduates earn an average of $1MILLION over 20 years while military academies are for students who don’t want huge loan debts -- The Massachusetts Institute of Technology offers the best value for money among private colleges in the U.S., while those seeking low student fees should consider a military or maritime academy, research reveals. The data, compiled from PayScale.com’s 2018 College ROI Report on the Best Value Colleges, compares the difference in median earnings over a 20-year period for graduates, and median earnings over a 24-year period for non graduates, minus four years' college tuition fees.  And a fascinating interactive scatter chart, created by Reddit user Newfangled, crunches the numbers to highlight which colleges offer the best return on their investment for students over their careers. MIT, which has median graduate earning of just over $1,000,000 over a 20-year period, delivers the best bang for student buck among the private colleges. MIT graduates can expect to earn way beyond the average high school graduate, despite their high tuition fees, over the course of their career.But for students wanting returns without significant financial investment, military and maritime academies offer excellent value.

Palestinian Harvard student denied entry to US because 'friends posted anti-American statements' -- A Palestinian Harvard student claims that he has been denied entry into the US because his friends had posted anti-American statements on social media. Ismail Ajjawi, 17, who is due to begin his studies at the prestigious university next Tuesday, said he was detained when he arrived at Boston's Logan International Airport on Friday night. Mr Ajjawai told the Harvard Crimson, the student newspaper, that immigration officers subjected him to hours of questioning and demanded access to his phone and computer. Mr Ajjawai, who lives in Lebanon, said he was asked about his religious beliefs and practices before officers trawled through his technology devices. The teenager said that after five hours an officer called him into a room and “started screaming" at him. "She said that she found people posting political points of view that oppose the US on my friend[s] list,” he said. Mr Ajjawi said he stressed to the officer that he had not made any political posts himself and that he should not be held responsible for others’ posts. “I have no single post on my timeline discussing politics,” he added. However he claimed that the officer cancelled his visa and informed him that he would be deported back to Lebanon. A spokesman for Harvard University told The Telegraph that the university is working closely with Mr Ajjawi's family "and appropriate authorities to resolve this matter so that he can join his classmates in the coming days”.

Lori Loughlin's Defense In The College Admissions Scandal Has Finally Leaked Out --  Lori Loughlin's defense in the college admissions scandal has finally started to leak out, according to Bloomberg. Loughlin has been the most high profile defendant in the scandal to not settle with the government or agree to a plea deal, instead choosing to stand her ground and fight the charges leveled against her. The actress and her husband, designer Mossimo Giannulli, argued that they gave donations, not bribes, to the University of Southern California, according to their lawyer. The couple's lawyer, William Trach of Lathan & Watkins, LLP argued that there is "zero evidence" of bribery at a hearing in federal court in Boston on Tuesday. Despite this, prosecutors maintain that Loughlin and her husband bribed former assistant athletics director Donna Heinel through payments to funds that she controlled and paid bribes that were funneled through a charity set up by William "Rick" Singer, the admission scandal's mastermind, in order to get their daughters into USC.Like Loughlin, Heinel has also pleaded not guilty. The defense will maintain that the couple was merely supporting the charity, called the Key Worldwide Foundation, which is a registered non-profit group that gave "legitimate donations" to support opportunities for underprivileged students. The couple's lawyer told the court: “The evidence in this case is there were checks made out to USC Athletics and to a fund at USC. Those checks were cashed by USC, and there were payments to Key Worldwide Foundation.” Prosecutors argued on Tuesday that both spouses knew about the $500,000 scheme to bribe USC employees and implied that the evidence was stronger against Giannulli, raising questions about the soundness of a joint defense.

NY univ. promotes paper comparing cow insemination to 'rape,' milking cows to 'sexual abuse' - A paper currently being promoted by a New York university calls on society to consider the rampant “sexual exploitation” of dairy cows by the milk industry in order to “fully fight gendered oppression.”  Specifically, the author compares cattle insemination to "rape" and the milking of cows to "sexual abuse."  Titled “Readying the Rape Rack: Feminism and the Exploitation of Non-Human Reproductive Systems,” the paper was published Friday in a journal called Dissenting Voices, which is published and edited by the Women’s and Gender Studies program at the College at Brockport State University of New York. The published piece aims at discussing the “sexual exploitation of non-human bodies, specifically dairy cows.” The author notes that “as a vegan and animal rights activist,” she feels compelled to reveal the “feminist aspects of animal agriculture,” a topic she says is unfortunately “under-researched,” but is nonetheless important because “the same way women’s health has been at  stake for years, a dairy cow’s reproductive system has been poked and prodded.” According to the publication, “the dairy industry is a host for sex-based discrimination,” and a “site where sexual assault and objectification based on biological makeup are highly prevalent but ignored as we choose to neglect non- humans with whom we share a planet.” The paper argues that “in order to fully fight gendered oppression,” society must also address the plight of dairy cows, which it asserts are “still subjects to sex-based discrimination and violence,” despite their voices being “not always lifted or comprehensible.”

Half Of College Students Believe In God We Trust Should Be Removed From US Currency -A survey of 1,001 college students from across the nation has found that nearly half believe the motto “In God We Trust” should be removed from U.S. currency.The online poll was conducted Aug. 22 to Aug. 23 exclusively for The College Fix by College Pulse, an online survey and analytics company focused on college students.The question asked:“Do you believe the motto ‘In God We Trust’ should remain on U.S. currency or should it be removed?”Of the 1,001 students who took the survey, 53 percent said it should remain and 45 percent said it should be removed. (Some students declined to answer.)“We live in a secular nation, not a theocracy. Best to remove,” responded one Clemson University student in the comments section of the survey.“Don’t put it on any $ going forward, but the cost to remove bills from circulation would be crazy, so let it remain on already printed currency,” added another student from CU Boulder.Some students who favored it offered countering opinions. “It’s one of the US’s mottos, and all countries put their motto on their currency, so it’s fine so long as it’s a motto,” wrote a student from the University of Alabama.  Another from UMass Amherst stated: “I don’t think it needs to be removed, but it should be a lower case g — ‘god.’ I think that’s a much more open saying that fits with a freedom of religion.” According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the motto was first placed on United States coins due to an increase in religious sentiment during the Civil War, and that “since 1938, all United States coins bear the inscription.” It first appeared on paper money in 1957 on the one-dollar silver certificate, then gradually grew to all denominations.

Chicago-area college advertises for strikebreakers as faculty walkout looms - Over 300 teachers and faculty at the College of DuPage (COD) voted on Thursday “overwhelmingly” to approve strike procedures against a Chicago-area community college which serves 26,000 students. The vote, preliminary to an actual strike ballot, was held against the backdrop of a clear threat by the administration to operate with scab labor.The contract between the COD and the faculty union, College of DuPage Faculty Association (CODFA), expired on August 14th. Teachers were sent back to work for the new school year without a contract, despite fruitless negotiations since last March. In a highly provocative step, the school posted on its website an advertisement for 143 positions to “fill in,” obviously in the event of a strike.In advance of the contract expiration, the school first sought to mobilize the notoriously underpaid adjunct faculty as strikebreakers. It presented the 700-member College of DuPage Adjunct Association (CODAA) with a “strike contingency plan,” promising any adjunct teachers willing to take over the classes of striking faculty increased wages and benefits, such as health insurance and paid vacation—benefits they have been denied since 1985. Throughout the US, adjunct teachers work for poverty wages, have little job security and are usually contracted on a per term basis. The CODAA membership, however, voted by a very large margin to reject the slimy offer.On Tuesday both sides met with a federal mediator. “A strike is the last thing that we want, and we will do everything in our power to avoid that,” said Shannon Toler, president of the College of DuPage Faculty Association (CODFA). She said she was “encouraged by the improved dialogue” and added that the union will continue to bargain with the board of trustees. The talks are focused on wages. Starting salaries have been frozen for three years and, according to the union, nearly half of all of their members have received no salary increases.

The Latest Installment In The Saga Of The Medicaid Equal Access Guarantee - On July 15, 2019 (84 Fed. Reg. 33722), the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published a proposed rule that represents the next chapter in the drama surrounding enforcement of the Medicaid equal access statute, a drama that has been ongoing since its 1987 enactment. This review of the proposed rule recaps and builds on a 2018 postdiscussing an earlier proposed rule under the statute, which the new rule declines to finalize. In its latest issuance on the subject, the federal government now proposes to fully retreat from any effort to ensure that states continually monitor access to care in Medicaid’s original fee-for-service system, which continues as the method by which some of the highest-need beneficiaries receive care. Even more strikingly perhaps, if finalized in its current form, the rule will signal the end of any federal agency effort to ensure some level of prospective review before potentially harmful provider payment rate reductions go into effect.Comments are due by September 13, 2019.  The Medicaid equal statute dates to a 1987 amendment codifying a requirement that already existed in regulation. The statute (42 U.S.C. § 1396a(a)(30)(A)) in pertinent part reads as follows: A state plan for medical assistance must: provide such methods and procedures relating to the utilization of, and the payment for, care and services available under the plan ... as may be necessary to safeguard against unnecessary utilization of such care and services and to assure that payments are consistent with efficiency, economy, and quality of care and are sufficient to enlist enough providers so that care and services are available under the plan at least to the extent that such care and services are available to the general population in the geographic area. [Emphasis added.]The rule, and later the statute, were understood as imposing a rational rate-setting process on the states. The basis for the requirement was the assumption that more competitive rates would yield greater provider participation. Although the relationship between Medicaid rates and provider participation is not always clear, it is also the case thatphysicians cite low payments as the primary reason why they will not participate.

What I Saw on Rounds Made Me Sick -- I lived in a paper world, a transitional world, and a world where we're on Epic or whatever ... screw it. Epic. OK? They are the 800-pound gorilla in the room and they SUCK to the tunes of billions of dollars, hobbling enterprises with this cost to give us a system that is so complicated and so obnoxious to use. "Oh, but it's so robust. You can do this. Think of the billing you can do." Can you do patient care?  No.When in the old days of paper, what used to happen is you would write something very simple. "The patient has this. She comes in today. We spent a lot of time together. This is my impression." There is your note. Then when you want to do something, you say, "Please give an insulin drip titrating to glucose of this." The team came together -- the pharmacist, the doctor, and the nurse -- and they made it happen.  Now, the residents and the attending physicians are sitting there going, "How do I make this insulin drip order set customized to this particular ... ?" But this, click box now ... and they spend about 20 minutes figuring this out. They hit send, sign the order, and then they get a call from the pharmacist and the nurse to clarify what was in Epic.That is not the way to do medicine. OK? This is dumb. We're in the 21st-century. Fix the technology. I'm not saying go ... look. I'll tell you the best time in my career was when I had read-only access at Stanford so I could get labs, imaging, and that stuff inbound, but we were paper on the outbound. I could be like, "Just do this. Here's what I think." Or tell a colleague like the consultants, "This is my concern. Can you please help?" Now, we're hiding in electronic silos and messaging each other. No one talks to each other. Then, I'm working at a hospital where it's all about the social determinants of health. It's homelessness, substance abuse, and poverty. OK? I did not see a patient today who is in any kind of a privileged position. These are people who have had all the decks stacked against them. But in this country, of course, we medicalize our social problems. We are all sitting there going, "How do we send a homeless guy home who's say ..." and I can't give away too much because of HIPAA. But who's got a lot of problems, there's no way he or she is going to do well on the street and yet we have no medical reason to keep this person in the hospital? All the powers are pushing us to get them back out to the street, yet everybody in that fricken room actually cares about this person not having something bad happened to them. But we're powerless. "Call Social Work." "They can't do anything." "Call a case manager." "They can't do anything." What about the shelters? "He's had this and that, and this or that happened at the shelter."

Google Is Burying Alternative Health Sites To Protect People From "Dangerous" Medical Advice - For their unorthodox views, some physicians are being treated as medical heretics. Google’s search engine algorithm has essentially ended traffic to their websites... In Ray Bradbury’s classic novel “Fahrenheit 451,” firemen don’t put out fires; they create fires to burn books. The totalitarians claim noble goals for book burning: They want to spare citizens unhappiness caused by having to sort through conflicting theories.  The real aim of censorship, in Bradbury’s dystopia, is to control the population.  Captain Beatty explains to the protagonist fireman Montag, “You can’t build a house without nails and wood. If you don’t want a house built, hide the nails and wood.” The “house” Beatty is referring to is opinions in conflict with the “official” one.  When making decisions, we often face conflicting theories. Daily, we face choices about what to eat. Although the government issues ever-changing dietary guidelines, thankfully, the marketplace supports personal dietary decisions ranging from carnivore to vegan. We are free to choose our diet based on our evaluation of the available evidence and the needs of our bodies.  When we face health issues, decisions become tougher. There is an orthodox opinion, and there are always dissenting opinions. For example, the orthodoxy recommends statins to reduce high cholesterol. Others believe high cholesterol isn’t a health risk and that statins are harmful.  Nobel laureate in economics Vernon Smith was taking a prescribed statin and recently observed the impact it was having on him:  “In the last week, I had a very clear (now) experience of temporary memory loss. I did a little searching and found this article summarizing and documenting the evidence over many years,” he wrote on Facebook.  Smith continues,  “Such incidents have been widely reported, but the problem did not arise in any of the clinical trials, but neither were they designed to detect it." Smith had to weigh the purported benefits against the side effects.

 More Force Won't Fix The American Diet   -Two nutritionists (Dariush Mozaffarian and Dan Glickman) have sounded the alarm about the American diet, saying bluntly what most of us know intuitively to be true: Americans are sick - much sicker than many realize. More than 100 million adults - almost half the entire adult population - have pre-diabetes or diabetes. Cardiovascular disease afflicts about 122 million people and causes roughly 840,000 deaths each year, or about 2,300 deaths each day. Three in four adults are overweight or obese. What is making us so sick, and how can we reverse this so we need less health care? The answer is staring us in the face, on average three times a day: our food. Poor diet is the leading cause of mortality in the United States, causing more than half a million deaths per year.  It’s fascinating to contemplate the implications. Here we are debating the healthcare system as a major political issue. Politicians on the stump are calling for this and that. And yet the number one problem with American health can be solved simply by making better choices. The best fix for the vast number of issues rests with the volition of every person.  Why isn’t it happening on its own?  The authors of this paragraph above sense that it has something to do with economics. And they are probably right about that. But rather than seek an end to agricultural subsidies (which make bad food absurdly cheap and plentiful) and the deregulation of food supply chains (which would increase access to healthier choices), our authors call for more command and control.  They push: Taxes on sugary beverages and junk food can be paired with subsidies on protective foods like fruits, nuts, vegetables, beans, plant oils, whole grains, yogurt and fish. Emphasizing protective foods represents an important positive message for the public and food industry that celebrates and rewards good nutrition. Levels of harmful additives like sodium, added sugar and trans fat can be lowered through voluntary industry targets or regulatory safety standards. Before we add more government force, why not experiment with what has been shown to work, namely more market forces? Corn subsidies can be abolished, as one obvious thing. No one wants to talk about that problem even though (to quote my piece from last year): The percentage of crops devoted to corn have gone from 24% in 1999 to 30% today, more than 96% of all grains. Meanwhile, the crops devoted to soybeans, hay and wheat have all gone down, thereby increasing feed costs for ranchers and consumers. Again, this is not the market talking. This is not what any actual market players are pushing. This all results from government mandates and subsidies. Government intervention has created corn nation. We feed it to our cars, our animals, ourselves.

Americans Spent Nearly $150 Billion On Illegal Drugs Last Year -  The U.S. opioid crisis has been making headlines again this week after pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson was fined $572 for fuelling the epidemic in Oklahoma in a historic ruling.As Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, last year, drug overdoses claimed more than 68,000 American lives and 47,000 of those deaths involved an opioid. Even though heroin, prescription opioids and synthetic opioids like fentanyl are receiving most of the attention, deaths from other drugs like cocaine and methamphetamine are increasing.A new report from the RAND Corporation has shed light on just how many people use illicit drugs across America as well as how much they pay for them. In 2016 alone, people in the U.S. spent an estimated $146 billion on cocaine, heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine. Adding RAND's figures together from 2006 to 2016 would mean total spending on illegal drugs over the course of the decade was nearly $1.5 trillion. Out of all four drugs in 2016, users spent the most on illicit marijuana - $52 billion. The market for the illegal green stuff is around the size of the cocaine and methamphetamine markets combined. Heroin has the second highest financial outlay ($43 billon) followed by methamphetamine ($27 billion) and cocaine ($24 billion).

Oklahoma judge finds Johnson & Johnson guilty in opioid epidemic - In the first full-scale trial of an opioid manufacturer, Judge Thad Balkman of Cleveland County District Court of Oklahoma ordered the giant pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson to pay the state $572 million for its role in the opioid crisis which has killed more Americans than died in World War II. The company was found culpable for pushing doctors through “false, misleading, and dangerous marketing campaigns” to prescribe opioid-based pain killers while downplaying the addictive risks associated with them, the judge wrote. Overprescription “caused exponentially increasing rates of addiction, overdose deaths” and other dire health consequences. Though there was widespread media praise for the ruling as a landmark event, it is far short of the $17 billion that Oklahoma Attorney General Mike Hunter had urged the judge to order Johnson & Johnson to pay. Balkman’s verdict provides the state only a year’s worth of the estimated costs that would be required to treat those addicted and establish long-term prevention programs. The financial markets took the verdict in stride. In after-hours trading, Johnson & Johnson’s stock price jumped from $127.78 to $133.61. Many investors had anticipated a judgment of over $1 billion. Earlier this year Oklahoma settled with two other giant pharmaceuticals also embroiled in the opioid crisis: Purdue Pharma, manufacturer of oxycodone, agreed to pay $270 million, and Teva Pharmaceuticals $85 million. These cases have been closely monitored by some two dozen opioid makers that are facing more than 2,000 lawsuits throughout the country. Over 500 of these have been filed just against Johnson & Johnson, which supplied 60 percent of the ingredients used by pharmaceutical companies, including its own subsidiary Jantzen, to manufacture opioids.

Judge Issues $572 Million Verdict Against J & J in Oklahoma Opioids Trial: Settlements to Follow? - Jerri-lynn Scofield - Monday, Cleveland County district court judge Thad Balkman issued a $572 million verdict against Johnson & Johnson (J & J) in an opioids trial in Oklahoma – the first of thousands of pending opioids lawsuits to go to trial.The full decision may be found here. The litigation addressed only one claim: that the defendant’s misleading marketing and promotion of opioids created a public nuisance.J & J has said it will appeal. The $572 million award is lower than expected and covers a one-year abatement plan; plaintiffs sought $17 billion to cover twenty years (or more) of abatement. This leaves open the question of whether the plaintiffs could return and ask for a future award.  Note that a judge, not a jury set the amount of damages to be awarded. A jury would almost certainly have awarded a higher payout by J & J  (although that hypothetical amount may then have been reduced after appeal).The amount J & J must now pay the state of Oklahoma is significantly greater than the $270 million Purdue Pharma, the manufacturer of OxyContin owned by the Sackler family, and the $85 million Teva Pharmaceuticals, separately agreed previously to settle each’s respective Oklahoma claims. Additionally, Purdue and Teva also avoided incurring the costs of contesting a trial.Next on the agenda: a more comprehensive jury trial in Ohio, slated for October. This action consolidates nearly 2000 claims, using the multidistrict litigation rules (MDL); Federal district court judge Dan Polster, who sits in the northern district of Ohio, presides over this pending litigation. (For further background and context, see my Opioid Lawsuits: DoJ Seeks to Participate in Settlement Talks.) Thus far, Judge Polster’s clear preference for settlement hasn’t produced any. This Oklahoma decision may advance that agenda for the reasons outlined below – but only marginally.

Purdue Offers Up $10 – 12 Billion to Settle All Lawsuits - The opioid/OxyContin maker Purdue and members of the billionaire Sackler family owning the company have offered to settle thousands of lawsuits against the company for $10 to $12 billion. according to people briefed on the offer. More than 2,000 states, cities, and counties across America are pursuing the OxyContin maker over the large bills for cleaning up the opioid crisis — and are deciding whether to accept the offer by Friday. The Financial Times is reporting on this offer from the Sacklers and Purdue. On August 26, Purdue paid $270 million to Oklahoma and Teva Pharmaceuticals paid $75 million also to Oklahoma. From the Financial Times: “Purdue said it believes a ‘constructive global resolution is the best way forward’ and is working with state attorneys-general and other plaintiffs to achieve it. While Purdue Pharma is prepared to defend itself vigorously in the opioid litigation, the company has made clear that it sees little good coming from years of wasteful litigation and appeals”.   For all the harm done to this nation due to purposeful deceit and lies on the use of opioids claiming it was not addictive, someone needs to go to prison from the Sackler family.

US health officials investigating 215 possible cases of severe lung disease associated with vaping - U.S. health officials are investigating 215 possible cases of severe lung disease associated with vaping across 25 states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration said in a joint statement Friday. The agencies said they need more information to understand whether there’s a relationship between specific products or substances and the reported illnesses. As of now, it does not appear the cases are linked to one particular product, the agencies said, noting that in “many” of the cases, patients reported using THC or CBD, compounds found in cannabis. “Even though cases appear similar, it is not clear if these cases have a common cause or if they are different diseases with similar presentations, which is why our ongoing investigation is critical,” CDC Director Robert Redfield and acting FDA Commissioner Ned Sharpless said in a joint statement. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar in a separate statement said, “this situation, and the rising tide of youth tobacco use, is a top public health priority for the Trump Administration and every leader at HHS.” Patients in many cases experienced symptoms gradually, including breathing difficulty, shortness of breath and chest pain before being hospitalized. Some people reported vomiting and diarrhea or other symptoms like fevers or fatigue.

Your New Heart Could Be Made in China -- Recently, a Chinese startup named Qihan Biotech raised $20 million to develop replacement organs for humans. The smallish deal would hardly have rated a headline, except for the fact that the Hangzhou-based gene-editing company is aiming to grow those organs in pigs and other animals. If successful, such transplants could well transform medicine. And, thanks to a unique confluence of need, money, timing and culture, China is poised to lead the way in developing them. Xenotransplantation has become a recognized branch of medicine. Heart valves from pigs, for instance, are commonly used to replace faulty human ones. However, transplanting a complete, functioning animal organ such as a heart presents far more formidable barriers, the most crucial being the need to suppress or fool the human body's immune response. China's scientists have become world leaders in editing the pig genome to do just that. The hope is to produce organs that can help people with a range of illnesses, from heart disease to blindness. Thanks to an aging population, and rising income levels that now allow patients to manage chronic conditions and diseases, demand for organs is rising fast. The supply isn't close to keeping up. According to the most recent estimates, there are approximately 300,000 Chinese patients awaiting transplants every year and only 10,000 donors. The bottleneck has only grown worse as China has tightened regulations on the use of organs from executed prisoners for transplants. Authorities have tried to boost the number of voluntary donations through public education campaigns and the development of a donor registry. But they must contend with strong cultural and religious biases against separating the body after death, as well as widespread suspicion about corruption and favoritism in the allocation of organs. The government has funded Crispr research generously. That money has produced new laboratory facilities and research projects, and is drawing talent back to China from the U.S. The results have been strong. In recent years, China has been first in many Crispr-related advances, most notoriously producing the world's first gene-edited human babies.

There were no guidelines for fecal transplants. Then, a patient died.  In June, after a patient died and another was sickened from a fecal transplant that contained drug-resistant bacteria, the Food and Drug Administration stepped in and set new guidelines for the procedure. The guidelines specified that both donors and their stool should be screened for the presence of “multidrug-resistant organisms.” They were included in an alert issued by the agency stating that the two patients who got sick had weakened immune systems, and that the donor stool they received had not been tested for the specific superbug that made them ill.  But no additional information on the cases was provided, such as how the stool was processed, how it was given to the patients or what it was being used to treat. The announcement raised more questions than it answered. Chief among them: What happened, exactly, in the two cases? And, given the increasing threat posed by drug-resistant bacteria, why weren’t these guidelines already in place?  To the frustration of many doctors, the FDA has remained mum on the details of the cases. Beyond the short safety alert, the agency hasn’t provided additional information, presumably because the patients were part of a clinical trial, which meant the information was privileged. As for the question of why there had been no guidelines, that requires a look back at the long history of the procedure.

Sperm sorting method could prevent girls being born, scientists warn -- The finding that some chemicals slow down sperm that carry the X chromosome could lead to gels for home use that make a couple less likely to conceive a girl, scientists have warned. “I am concerned about the social impact of this,” says Alireza Fazeli of Tartu University in Estonia. “It’s so simple. You could start to do it in your bedroom. Nobody would be able to stop you from doing it.”  Masayuki Shimada of Hiroshima University in Japan and his colleagues have found that 500 genes are active in sperm that carry the X chromosome, which give rise to female offspring, that aren’t active in sperm that carry the Y chromosome, which lead to male offspring. Of these genes, 18 code for proteins that stick out from the sperm cell’s surface. The team has found that chemicals that bind to two of these proteins can slow down the movement of X-carrying sperm without affecting the Y-carrying ones. This discovery makes it simple to separate sperm according to the sex of the offspring they could produce. When the researchers used this method on mouse sperm, they found that selecting the fastest swimmers for conception led to 90 per cent of the resulting pups being male. When they used slowed-down sperm, the pups were 81 per cent female. The researchers focus on livestock, and they have found that the technique works in cattle and pigs. “It’s fairly convincing,” says George Seidel of Colorado State University. It could take up to a decade to turn this into a commercial method for sorting human sperm, he says. However, Fazeli thinks it may not be necessary to select the fastest or slowest swimmers before insemination or IVF to influence the sex of an embryo. He says that, if the chemicals were added to a gel or foam applied inside the vagina before sex, this could be enough to greatly increase a couple’s chances of conceiving a boy. Seidel agrees.

 Brain-reading tech is coming. The law is not ready to protect us. - Over the past few weeks, Facebook and Elon Musk’s Neuralink have announced that they’re building tech to read your mind — literally.  Mark Zuckerberg’s company is funding research on brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that can pick up thoughts directly from your neurons and translate them into words. The researchers say they’ve already built an algorithm that can decode words from brain activity in real time. And Musk’s company has created flexible “threads” that can be implanted into a brain and could one day allow you to control your smartphone or computer with just your thoughts. Musk wants to start testing in humans by the end of next year.  Other companies such as Kernel, Emotiv, and Neurosky are also working on brain tech. They say they’re building it for ethical purposes, like helping people with paralysis control their devices.   Over the past dozen years, a number of paralyzed patients have received brain implants that allow them to move a computer cursor or control robotic arms. Implants that can read thoughts are still years away from commercial availability, but research in the field is moving faster than most people realize.  Your brain, the final privacy frontier, may not be private much longer. Some neuroethicists argue that the potential for misuse of these technologies is so great that we need revamped human rights laws — a new “jurisprudence of the mind” — to protect us. The technologies have the potential to interfere with rights that are so basic that we may not even think of them as rights, like our ability to determine where our selves end and machines begin. Our current laws are not equipped to address this.

Measles epidemic: parents reluctant to vaccinate their children need to hear of the horrors of forgotten diseases - There’s been a surge in measles cases across Europe, putting people’s lives at risk according to new findings from the World Health Organization.The official figures show that approximately 90,000 cases have been reported for the first half of 2019. This is already more than the number of cases recorded for the whole of 2018 (84,462).This has in part been put down to disinformation about the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine on social media putting parents off vaccinating their children. Recent outbreaks of measles, which is much more infectious than mumps and rubella, have been widely reported. But what is less well known is that there have been a few babies born with congenital rubella syndrome in the UK in the past few years. This is an illness resulting from an infection of the rubella virus during pregnancy. People under the age of 50 are unlikely to have heard about “Rubella babies”, but in the 1940s, the Australian paediatric ophthalmologist, Norman Gregg, made the connectionbetween women being infected with German measles (rubella) during pregnancy and their children being born deaf and blind and sometimes with other disabilities. Many babies infected with the virus while in the womb do not survive, but in the 1960s in the UK about 300 children each year were born with “congenital rubella syndrome” and needed care. By 1970, a safe effective Rubella vaccine was available and the UK began vaccinating school girls. A screening programme, which involved testing blood samples from women of childbearing age to see whether they had previous immunity to the virus, also began. Those who did not did not have protection were offered the vaccine. Although women starting in particular jobs – such as health care and teaching – were screened, most of the tests were done on pregnant women as part of their 12 week check. In 1988, the Rubella vaccine become the R in the MMR and the strategy changed to vaccinating all pre-school children.The idea was that if all young children were protected, then these infections would eventually not be circulating at all.  But the recent outbreaks of measles across the world have illustrated the problems with MMR uptake.

Medications Can Raise Heat Stroke Risk. Are Doctors Prepared to Respond as the Planet Warms? -- "It is not a part of our culture to think of heat as risky," said Bernstein, a pediatrician at Boston Children's Hospital and co-director of the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard's School of Public Health. As global temperatures rise and extreme heat waves become more common, so does heat illness. But while doctors have known for decades about the adverse effects of some medications on how the body regulates temperature, little is being done in the U.S. to better warn patients or physicians of the growing risks associated with climate change, doctors, researchers and community health experts said.   Medications that are widely used to treat conditions from high blood pressure to mental health disorders can affect the ability to regulate heat. They can alter the body's ability to sweat, change how it regulates temperature or cause dehydration, all impairing people's capacity to deal with rising temperatures and heat waves.  Doctors may be aware of the risks of some medications in extreme heat, but health experts say many stop short of linking the risk to the increasing heat and humidity resulting from climate change. "The message that needs to be made clear to everyone is that climate change is making it harder for me to do my job as a doctor," Bernstein said.  It's not unusual for someone to be taking five medications that each change the body's ability to deal with heat, and doctors and patients both need to be aware of the risks, said Amy Collins, an emergency medicine doctor at MetroWest Medical Center in Massachusetts and senior clinical adviser for Health Care Without Harm.

Nestlé Plans to Plunder 1.1M Gallons a Day from Florida Natural Springs -  Nestlé Waters' proposal to take 1.1 million gallons per day from Ginnie Springs has drawn a backlash from conservationists who say the food giant wants to take publicly owned water and sell it back to the public, as the Guardian reported.Conservationists fear that if Nestlé's plans go through, there will be considerably less water in Ginnie Springs, which sits in the Santa Fe River and serves as a home for several species of turtles that nest on the river's banks. Environmental groups say the river is too fragile to serve Nestlé's interests since it is already labeled as "in recovery" by the Suwannee River water management district after years of over pumping, as theGuardian reported. Residents have also criticized the business practice that allows for taxpayer money to restore the spring, while allowing Nestlé to take water out. The Florida Water Resources Act declared that all the water in springs, rivers and lakes is the property of the state, not the landowners, but it never set a price on water. That means, Nestlé will be able to take the state's water, but not pay the state for it, according to theGainesville Sun."[W]e have an ethical issue with our state putting large sums of money into conservation practices and recharge projects on the Santa Fe River and then, at the same time, counteracting this action by fomenting the free extraction of a publicly owned natural resource by a for-profit company," wrote Merrillee Malwitz-Jipson and Jim Tatum, from the conservation group Our Santa Fe River, in a column for the Gainesville Sun. "Essentially, taxpayers are funding replenishment of the aquifer and then allowing Nestlé to take it out and sell it back to us." That bizarre marketplace has residents teaming up with conservationists to ask the Suwannee River Water Management District to deny renewing Nestlé's permit. "Ginnie Springs is one of Florida's treasures. It's loved by locals and travelers alike," Julienne Wallace wrote in creating a change.org petition, as the Gainesville Sun reported. "Nestlé is known for destroying places like Ginnie Springs and its breaking our hearts!

Newark water crisis: The latest chapter in the capitalist poisoning of America - Newark, the largest city in New Jersey, is facing a water crisis of historic proportions, caused by a water delivery system that has been leaching lead into the drinking water of both residences and businesses. Blood tests have confirmed that a significant percentage of children in Newark have been exposed to lead, a strong neurotoxin that can cause lasting damage in even small amounts. The exposure of Newark’s water crisis comes more than five years after officials in Flint, Michigan disconnected the city from its reliable source of treated drinking water and began drawing water from the polluted Flint River, which surged through the city’s lead-lined pipes. On April 25, 2014, the city of Flint officially switched its water supply to the Flint River, hosting a “changeover ceremony” in which Emergency Manger Darnell Earley, Flint Mayor Dayne Walling, both Democrats, cheered and toasted the switch. It would not be until 18 months after the switch that official lies about the safety of the water would be exposed. But the damage had already been done to Flint’s 100,000 residents, including 9,000 children. As in Flint, Newark’s population is facing the horrifying reality that they have been unwittingly subjected to lead poisoning that cannot be reversed. Lead is a highly dangerous neurotoxin that can attack any system in the body when ingested and the damage is permanent. It can stunt growth and cause neurological damage, leading to emotional and behavioral issues and cognitive deficits, particularly among young children whose brains and bodies are developing rapidly.

Newark’s Water Crisis is One of Thousands That Are Worse Than Flint’s -- Jerri-Lynn here. This Real News Network interview with Charles Jackson from the Greater Baltimore Urban League addresses lead poisoning: a public health emergency in poor working class communities across the United States, one which is raising crime rates, causing school dropouts, filling our prisons, and creating human tragedy.

Lead Found in Drinking Fountains at 17% of California Public Schools -Two years ago Assembly Bill 746 required all California K-12 public schools built before 2010 to test for lead in drinking fountains and faucets by July 1, 2019. So far, 1,256 of 7,188 schools tested by the California State Water Resources Control Board (17 percent) have reported levels of lead that exceed five parts per billion (ppb). The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that lead in school drinking fountains not exceed 1 ppb, whereas the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there is no blood lead level for children that can be considered safe. The state, however, only requires schools to take action – including notifying parents, shutting down dangerous fountains and conducting more testing – if lead levels exceed 15 ppb. Schools that do detect levels of lead above 15 ppb must take follow-up samples from the place at which the school’s plumbing connects to the community water supply to identify whether tainted water is reaching the school from the outside. As of mid June, 268 California schools reported lead levels above 15 ppb, according to the Water Resources Control Board. AB 746 builds upon 2017 permit amendments, issued by the state’s Division of Drinking Water, that give all California schools (public, private and charter) the right to request testing from their local water systems of up to five samples, and to receive repeat tests to confirm the effectiveness of any steps taken to lower lead levels. The presence of lead at so many schools is particularly alarming because lead is especially toxic to children, even at low levels. “Lower levels of lead have the potential to cause significant effects on children’s brain development, on their attention levels, on behavior and on their ability to learn,” said Susan Little of the Environmental Working Group, an advocacy organization focused on health and the environment. According to Little, “The older the school, the more apt it is to have leaded fixtures and possibly leaded plumbing.” Little also pointed out that levels of lead exposure once thought to be safe are now considered dangerous. That is why schools built after 2010 are exempt from recent rounds of testing. “In California in 2010, we changed the lead content standard for faucets and fixtures,” Little told Capital & Main. “Prior to 2010 faucets and fixtures could have as much as eight percent lead.”

Flesh-eating bacteria is infecting more people and spreading to new areas. Scientists blame climate change. -- Vibrio are a group of bacteria naturally found in warm, brackish, and ocean waters all over the world. People can become infected by eating contaminated seafood, particularly raw oysters, or exposing cuts or breaks in the skin to water containing the bacteria — which can lead to what’s commonly referred to as flesh-eating disease. In the US, the number of reported cases of Vibrio illness has more than tripled since 1997, from 386 to 1,256 in 2016, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Now experts say climate change is helping drive the increase, allowing the bacteria to thrive in areas that were previously too cold, and illustrating one of the many unforeseen threats rising temperatures and sea levels pose to human health. This summer, hundreds of cases of Vibrio have been reported up and down the Atlantic Coast, across the Gulf states, and in the Pacific Northwest, according to CDC data. Several people have died from the infections in Texas and Florida. The increase in illnesses comes as climate change and coastal urbanization create a perfect storm for waterborne bacteria, said Geoff Scott, clinical professor and chair of the department of environmental health sciences in the Arnold School of Public Health at the University of South Carolina. “You get increased runoff of nutrients, increased levels of other things in the water, plus the rise of sea level, the change in temperature and salinity — those are all factors that can make these Vibrio bacteria have a very unique opportunity,” Scott told BuzzFeed News. The CDC estimates that the bacteria cause 80,000 illnesses and 100 deaths each year, with the majority occurring between May and October when water temperatures are warmer.

Toxic Algae That Kills Dogs Found in NYC Parks - The New York Department of Environmental Conservation, which routinely tests the waters in New York City's parks, found dangerously high levels of toxins in the Harlem Meer at the north end of Central Park, the Turtle Pond next to the Great Lawn in Central Park, the pond in Prospect Park and the pond in Morning Side Park, as the New York Times reported. "When enjoying fresh water features in city parks, it is important to try to avoid contact with any algae and keep pets on leashes and do not allow them to enter or drink from lakes and ponds unless in areas specifically designated for such activities," a spokeswoman with NYC Parks said in a statement sent toFox News."Many factors influence algae blooms, including high nutrients, stagnant water, high temperatures, and low oxygen," she continued.Urban areas are particularly susceptible since a variety of nutrients found on nearby roads, sidewalks and sewage pipes, pour into the lakes and ponds. Plus, the waters are shallow, which allows nutrients to mix easily, according to the New York Times. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation website publishes a map of locationswhere a harmful algal bloom (HAB) has been detected. However, it warns that the map may be incomplete as HABs often develop and spread quickly, particularly in August and September. "HABs may be present in all or parts of a waterbody. Avoid recreating in discolored water, or water that has visible scums," the website warns.Cyanobacteria releases toxins that can cause skin rashes, gastrointestinal distress and neurological problems. The toxins can also trigger liver damage and respiratory paralysis in animals, as the New York Times reported.The New York Post tracked down dog walkers near the algae-covered Harlem Meer. "There are a bunch of fish and turtles that die on a regular basis, so you don't know what's in there. You see a lot of floating turtles. It's pretty awful," said Sunday Humphrey, 53, who doesn't allow her pitbull-rottweiler mix near the water. The Parks Department has put up yellow signs near the Harlem Meer and in Prospect Park warning park goers about the Harmful Algal Bloom, saying not to fish in the water, not to drink the water, not to let animals or children near the water, and to rinse any skin exposed to the cyanobacteria.

No surprises here: Iowa’s factory farms are causing a water crisis  --Iowa is in the midst of a water quality crisis. With more than 750 polluted waterways, increasing factory farm runoff, and weekly water advisories, Iowans must take action to demand clean water. More than 10,000 factory farms in Iowa create 22 billion gallons of liquid manure each year. This manure is applied to cropland as fertilizer, but excess amounts run off into our lakes and streams. Corporate Ag has long claimed that the gallons of liquid manure produced by factory farms is negligible because it can be used to replace traditional chemical fertilizers. However, while we’ve seen an average of 500 additional factory farms built each year (creating that much more manure), we have not seen the sales of chemical fertilizers drop. Factory farm waste is a top contributor to increasing nutrient levels in our water, fueling toxic blue-green algae blooms like those we have seen across the state. Algal blooms have made national news this summer, and for good reason: they can be highly toxic. Exposure can cause illness or even death. Last week, Donnelle Eller reported for the Des Moines Register that blue-green algal blooms have sickened at least 29 Iowans since 2000. Pets and livestock can also become ill and even die from contact with water contaminated with blue-green algae. In North Carolina, three dogs recently died within hours of playing in a contaminated pond. Blue-green algae thrive in lakes and slow-moving, nutrient-rich water during the warmer months of the year; this summer, at least half a dozen lakes in Iowa have had advisories each week, warning of the presence of e. Coli or toxic blue-green algae.  Last fall, high levels of precipitation caused dozens of manure storage structures to overflow and reach nearby creeks and streams. Farmers were also unable to get into their wet fields to inject the liquid manure, leading the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to permit more than 100 exemptions allowing manure to be applied to frozen and snow-covered ground, in order to stop manure storage structures from overflowing during the winter months. That dangerous practice leads to runoff. This situation will become more frequent as climate change continues to impact weather patterns.

'It smells like a decomposing body': North Carolina's polluting pig farms - In September 2016, with Hurricane Hermine bearing down on North Carolina, Kemp Burdette rented a single-engine plane and flew over Duplin county. Burdette, a riverkeeper with the environmental group Cape Fear River Watch, was worried that some of the local pig farmers might try to drain their manure lagoons before the rains hit, to prevent them from overflowing. Spraying waste is illegal just before storms because of the risk that runoff from saturated fields will contaminate waterways. As he flew, Burdette estimated that he saw at least 35 farms spraying their fields. He took high-resolution, GPS-stamped photographs and videosdocumenting the apparent violations, and then filed a complaint with the state Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), hoping the evidence would move the agency to act. He and his colleagues did the same a month later, just before the devastating Hurricane Matthew. “This isn’t just one bad actor,” he said. “This was widespread – complete disregard for the rules.” But, according to Burdette, DEQ told him that the images were inadequate proof. “They were basically saying, ‘There’s nothing we can do,’” he said. “They can’t stand behind evidence collected by somebody else.” Nor did they have funds to do their own aerial surveys. For evidence, DEQ said it could only review the farms’ self-reported spray logs. And in November 2016, when Burdette and his colleagues followed up, they say all public traces of their complaints had disappeared. For years, residents say, North Carolina regulators shielded the identities of polluting farms, burying public complaints against them and leaving those who lived nearby with few avenues for redress. Neighbours said their complaints were going unheard. A joint investigation by the Guardian, the Food & Environment Reporting Network, and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting backs up residents’ assessments. In response to a public records request, DEQ released only 33 public complaints against livestock operations in North Carolina from January 2008 to April 2018. Over the same period, other hog states have registered thousands. Abruptly, in April 2019 the DEQ said it had validated 62 complaints against animal operations over a six-month period and posted them online. The offenders included 11 industrial hog farms, some of which had let their waste discharge into ditches and streams. State regulators had publicly documented nearly twice as many violations in the six months prior to April 2019 than in an entire decade.

China’s Sichuan province to remove restrictions on pig farming (Reuters) - China’s southwestern province of Sichuan, the country’s top pig-farming province, is removing some restrictions on hog production to stabilize supply after an epidemic of African swine fever reduced herds. Sichuan produced more than 65 million pigs in 2017, according to official data, or more than 9% of the country’s total, making it China’s leading producer. But many farms have been hit by African swine fever, an incurable disease that kills almost all pigs infected, which is still spreading through the world’s leading pork market. Sichuan’s Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a notice on Monday it was setting ‘red lines’ for pig output in the province, with city mayors responsible for ensuring self-sufficiency of pork. To achieve a provincial target of 40 million hogs a year, local authorities should promote standardized and modern farming, and support farms that produce 2 million hogs or more each year with integrated feed plants and slaughtering facilities, said the notice published on the department’s website.

Scientists Fertilize Eggs From Last Northern White Rhinos -- Seven eggs from the world's last northern white rhinoceroces have been successfully fertilized in a lab, scientists announced on Monday. Ten eggs were extracted from two females, Najin and Fatu, last week in Kenya, but only seven of them were fit to be artificially inseminated. "We expect some of them will develop into an embryo," Cesare Galli, a founder of the Italian assisted-breeding company Avantea. The team used frozen sperm that had been harvested from two male northern white rhinos before they died."This is the next critical step in hopefully creating viable embryos that can be frozen and then later on transferred to southern white rhino surrogate mothers," the scientists said in a statement. Veterinarians and wildlife experts are hoping to use a surrogate mother rhino, as Najin and Fatu are unable to carry a pregnancy. Sudan, the world's last male northern white rhinoceros, was euthanized last year after age-related health issues began to worsen. He left behind his daughter Najin and his granddaughter Fatu as the last remaining members of their species. The ultimate goal is to create a herd of at least five northern white rhinos that could be released in their natural habitat in Africa, although that process could take decades.Other species of rhino, including the southern white rhino and the black rhino, are frequently targeted bypoachers who kill the animals for their horns to sell in illegal markets in Asia.

42 Wild Burros Found Shot Dead in Mojave Desert, $58,000 Offered to Identify the Killer 0 Someone is shooting the Mojave Desert's iconic wild burros, in what officials say is one of the largest killings of its kind on land managed by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in Southern California, The Los Angeles Times reported.The bodies of 42 burros have been found shot dead since May in San Bernardino County, The Washington Post reported. As of Wednesday, the BLM and animal rights organizations had assembled nearly $60,000 in reward money for any information leading to the arrest of the killer or killers. "The cruelty involved in shooting these burros and leaving them to die warrants prosecution to the fullest extent of the law," BLM's Deputy Director for Policy and Programs William Perry Pendley said in a statement Wednesday. "We thank the animal welfare groups for adding their voices to those organizations who value these iconic symbols of the West."   The animals targeted are part of a population of 120 that lives in the Clark Mountain Herd Area, BLM spokeswoman Sarah Webster told The Washington Post, meaning one third of that group has been massacred this spring and summer. Many of the killings appear to have been made at a distance with a rifle aimed at the burros' necks, Webster said. In one incident, both foals and adults were killed as they drank from a watering hole. "I've been told that at least one of the burros was still alive when it was discovered by a passerby. But it succumbed to its injuries by the time BLM investigators arrived on the scene," Neda DeMayo, president of the nonprofit Return To Freedom, which has put $5,000 towards the reward, told The Los Angeles Times. "It's all so unbelievable. Crazy. Hostile. Cruel."

Some animals can adapt to climate change—just not fast enough -- WHEN ANNE CHARMANTIER set out to check her great tits—a songbird native to Europe—on June 28, she expected to find healthy, spry chicks. As she slowly opened the doors to the wooden nest boxes—a trick to study these birds—the quiet at the nest disturbed her. Peering in, she encountered a grim scene: All chicks lay dead in their nests. An evolutionary ecologist at the Center of National Scientific Research in France, Charmantier has studied great tits for 15 years—long enough to know that this was not normal. The culprit was a heat wave that had swept through Europe in late June. In Montpelier, where she checked the nest boxes, temperatures exceeded 110 degrees Fahrenheit, a record by more than 10 degrees. “The heat was so much over anything we've ever experienced,” Charmantier says. “It was creepy.” Though this is just one anecdote, scientists predict that extreme heat waves will become more common with climate change, carrying huge consequences for the survival of some populations. Get more of the inspiring photos and stories we're known for, plus special offers. By signing up for this email, you are agreeing to receive news, offers, and information from National Geographic Partners, LLC and our partners. Click here to visit our Privacy Policy. Easy unsubscribe links are provided in every email. The question plaguing scientists is this: Is climate change happening too fast for animals to save themselves—and their future offspring—by adapting quickly?

Australia Downgrades Great Barrier Reef Outlook to 'Very Poor' - The government agency that manages Australia's Great Barrier Reef on Friday downgraded its outlook for the condition of the coral system from "poor" to "very poor." The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority's (GBRMPA) report blamed climate change for coral bleaching, which occurs as a result of rising sea temperatures."Significant global action to address climate change is critical to slowing the deterioration of the reef's ecosystem and heritage values and supporting recovery," said the five-year review of the world's largest coral reef system. But the agency added that the threats to the 2,300-kilometer (1,400-mile) reef were "multiple, cumulative and increasing."Agricultural runoff, coastal land clearing and coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish were also to blame for its woes, the report said.GBRMPA's Chief Scientist David Wachenfeld told reporters in Sydney that despite the threat, "with the right mix of local actions to improve the resilience of the system and global actions to tackle climate change ... we can turn that around."Located off the northeast Australian coast, the Great Barrier Reef is home to 400 types of coral, 1,500 species of fish and 4,000 types of mollusks.Scientists have been concerned about the health of the coral network for decades. In 2012, a study found the reef has lost more than half its coral cover since 1985.A 2017 study published in the journal Nature found that 91 percent of the reef had been bleached at least once during three bleaching events of the past two decades. A fourth significant bleaching struck later in 2017 after the report was published.

Manhattan-Sized Pumice Raft Could Bring New Life to Great Barrier Reef -  Could an undersea volcanic eruption help the Great Barrier Reef recover from coral bleaching? A Manhattan-size raft of pumice stones ― believed to be the result of an undersea eruption near Tonga ― is floating on the Pacific Ocean towards Australia, CNN reported Monday. The pumice carries with it marine organisms like crabs and corals that experts say could bring new life to the iconic reef, which lost about half its corals to back-to-back bleaching events in 2016 and 2017."Based on past pumice raft events we have studied over the last 20 years, it's going to bring new healthy corals and other reef dwellers to the Great Barrier Reef," Queensland University of Technology geologist Scott Bryan told The Guardian. Pumice is formed by lava sent up from underwater volcanoes, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observatory explained. Because it is lighter than water and full of holes, it floats.In a 2012 study reported by CNN, Bryan and others found that pumice rafts are one way that the ocean redistributes marine life.This particular raft was first spotted by NASA satellites and sailors Aug. 9. On Aug. 15, Australian couple Michael Hoult and Larissa Brill encountered the raft while sailing to Fiji on the catamaran ROAM and posted a detailed account on Facebook, as NPR reported. "We entered a total rock rubble slick made up of pumice stones from marble to basketball size. The waves were knocked back to almost calm and the boat was slowed to 1kt. The rubble slick went as far as we could see in the moonlight and with our spotlight," the pair wrote.

Flash Flooding, Hail Cause Chaos in Madrid - A massive storm brought flash flooding and golf-ball-sized hail to parts of Madrid Monday, The New York Times reported. The storm closed roads and subway tunnels that emergency services were still working to clear Tuesday morning. The two major highways that circle the city were closed temporarily, and flights had to be diverted from Madrid's Barajas airport. Piles of hail, flash floods and a tornado hits Spain – YouTube   Rain and hail struck hardest in the municipality of Arganda del Rey, southeast of Madrid, El País reported. Flood waters swept parked cars and furniture down the streets of the city, which is located in a valley."Trying to stabilize the situation and give an account of urgent requirements. The flash flood has been terrible. All services are working at full capacity to normalize [the situation]. Be alert to instructions," Pedro Guillermo Hita Téllez, the Socialist Party mayor of Arganda del Rey, tweeted, as El País reported.While emergency services received more than 1,100 calls Monday and firefighters responded to more than 200, no one was injured in the storm, The New York Times reported. The spectacle was dramatic, though. Spain's meteorological agency AEMET reported more than 9,300 lightning strikes in a six-hour period, according to El País.

900,000 Forced to Evacuate Deadly Flooding in Japan - Floods and landslides triggered by record-setting rainfall in southern Japan have forced authorities to order more than 900,000 people to leave their homes and another one million were advised to move to safety on Wednesday, according to Reuters. In just 48 hours, Kyushu Island received more than twice its average rainfall for the entire month of August.  By Thursday morning, three people were dead and one was missing on Kyushu Island, while the Japan Meteorological Agency said the torrential rains were finally expected to diminish in the south today, according to the Kyodo News, but heavy rains and lightning would hit large swaths of northern and western Japan.  The rains soaked Kyushu Island with alarming speed, soaking some areas with over 4 inches of rain in just one hour. The downpours caused rivers to swell in Fukuoka, Saga and Nagasaki prefectures, asCNN reported. Dramatic images showed residents in knee deep water and cars half-submerged after several rivers breached their banks on Wednesday, according to the Evening Standard.  An elderly man was found dead after his car was washed away by floodwaters in Takeo city, Saga Prefecture, said the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. Two more people were seriously injured, according to CNN. Meanwhile, Kyodo News reported that a 96-year-old woman was found dead in a flooded home in Takeo city. One man died after being swept away when he stepped out of his car. Another woman was found unconscious after her car fell into a waterway, the Evening Standardreported.

Flood the Market - Amanda and Drew Heyen spent 16 years in their small ranch home on Chantilly Lane in Houston’s Central Northwest neighborhood. In that period, their house flooded nine times — more than once every two years. At first, they tried to live with the frequent inundations. They raised their furniture on cinder blocks and installed an industrial kitchen sink with no cabinetry. After the eighth flood, in early August 2017, they decided to make plans to move. But they couldn’t get out before flood nine, Hurricane Harvey, arrived two weeks later. The Heyens bounced between motel rooms and friends’ houses for weeks. They returned home more than a month later to find that mold was growing on parts of the walls and that sections of the roof had caved in.  Floods cause more deaths and property damage in the United States than any other type of natural disaster. As climate change accelerates, they are getting worse and a growing number of Americans are signing up to have local governments “buy out” their disaster-prone houses, often with money from grants awarded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.Among cities with populations over 500,000, Houston leads the pack on buyouts made possible with FEMA funds. Harris County, home to the Houston metro area, has bought nearly 2,400 homes as of this past June. Next on the list were Nashville, Charlotte, and Louisville — but Houston has bought thousands more houses than each of the runners up. FEMA calls these transactions a “win-win” because they rescue distressed homeowners and allow oft-waterlogged residences to be knocked down and converted into wetlands, prairies, and other rain-absorbing infrastructure. But buyouts come with problems. Local officials are primarily reliant on FEMA disaster payouts that arrive after events like big storms. However, to get federal funding, buyout programs need to be 100-percent voluntary, meaning homeowners must want out. But not everyone is so eager to sell as the Heyens, which means counties often acquire a patchwork of homes, as opposed to blocks at a time. Critics, including real-estate agents, accuse local officials of doling out cash haphazardly. And a study released earlier this this year by The Nature Conservancy and Texas A&M University zeroed in on Houston’s buyouts, pointing out risks inherent in Harris County’s uncoordinated pattern of home acquisitions. The Heyens’ story captures many of the problems with Houston’s current system. The family first considered signing up for the voluntary home buyout program administered by Harris County Flood Control District after their house flooded for the fourth time in 2007. But for years, the money just wasn’t there; there were too many other Houstonians with homes in deep floodplains who faced more dangerous risks from inundations.

Rising seas threaten Egypt's fabled port city of Alexandria - Egypt’s coastal city of Alexandria, which has survived invasions, fires and earthquakes since it was founded by Alexander the Great more than 2,000 years ago, now faces a new menace in the form of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten to inundate poorer neighborhoods and archaeological sites, prompting authorities to erect concrete barriers out at sea to break the tide. A severe storm in 2015 flooded large parts of the city, causing at least six deaths and the collapse of some two dozen homes, exposing weaknesses in the local infrastructure. Alexandria, the country’s second city, is surrounded on three sides by the Mediterranean Sea and backs up to a lake, making it uniquely susceptible to the rise in sea levels caused by global warming and the melting of the polar ice caps.The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that global sea levels could rise by 0.28 to 0.98 meters (1-3 feet) by 2100, with “serious implications for coastal cities, deltas and low-lying states.” Experts acknowledge that regional variations in sea level rise and its effects are still not well understood. But in Alexandria, a port city home to more than 5 million people and 40% of Egypt’s industrial capacity, there are already signs of change. Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation says the sea level rose by an average of 1.8 millimeters annually until 1993. Over the following two decades that rose to 2.1 millimeters a year, and since 2012 it has reached as high as 3.2 millimeters per year, enough to threaten building foundations. 

Indonesia To Erect New Capital City In Borneo As Jakarta Sinks Into Java Sea -- A jungle-covered area on the east of Borneo island has been named as site of Indonesia's next capital city. With Jakarta suffering from a combination of an exploding population, dramatically lowered standards of sanitation, and overcrowding leading to a near-constant state of traffic gridlock, government leaders were forced to look elsewhere to establish a new political and economic hub for the country.  But crucially, apart from all of the above ills afflicting the country's current capital, it remains that Jakarta's buildings are slowly sinking into the marshlands upon which they were built.  Already among the world's most overpopulated urban regions (over 10 million in the city limits with an estimated 30 million people in the greater metropolitan area), it's long been known as among the fastest-sinking cities on Earth — given scientists recently estimated that at the current rate 95% of North Jakarta will be underwater by 2050, displacing nearly 2 million people, as the city sinks into a bog.  For this reason the government wants the new capital to be located outside of Java and its swampy flood-prone environs - the largest island in the Indonesian archipelago - before Jakarta sinks into the Java Sea. Reports cite not merely natural phenomena making the city sink at an alarming rate, but rampant over-extraction of groundwater to meet the needs of the massive and densely packed population.  The relocation is the culmination of a months-long search project and was announced Monday by President Joko Widodo. CNN described the new proposed location as follows: The proposed location, near the relatively underdeveloped cities of Balikpapan and Samarinda, is a far cry from the crowded powerhouse which has served as Indonesia's financial heart since 1949 — and Widodo acknowledged that moving the country's capital to the island will be a mammoth and expensive undertaking. "As a large nation that has been independent for 74 years, Indonesia has never chosen its own capital," Widodo said in a televised speech. "The burden Jakarta is holding right now is too heavy as the center of governance, business, finance, trade and services."

Any More Proof Needed That Global Warming Is A Scam? -- August 27, 2019 --Martha's Vineyard to be underwater in less than ten years due to rising seas / global warming. President Obama to buy oceanfront property for $15 million on Martha's Vineyard. I assume his daughters are aghast.

Hurricane Dorian swirls toward anxious Florida, packing 140-mph winds - (Reuters) - Hurricane Dorian spun across the Atlantic ocean toward Florida on Friday, becoming an even stronger Category 4 storm as residents and tourists alike hunkered down in one of America’s biggest vacation destinations. Dorian has the potential to put millions of people at risk, along with holiday attractions such as Walt Disney World, the NASA launchpads along the Space Coast, and even President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach. The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Dorian was packing maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 kph) as it churned an unpredictable path toward Florida. “Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days,” the NHC said in a statement on Friday. On Florida’s east coast, where Dorian’s winds are expected to quickly gather speed on Monday morning, residents snapped up bottled water, plywood and other supplies as fast as they could be restocked. Some gas stations had run out of fuel. “They’re buying everything and anything that applies to a hurricane, flashlights, batteries, generators,” said Amber Hunter, 30, assistant manager at Cape Canaveral’s ACE Handiman hardware store. In the Bahamas, evacuations were already underway, two days before Dorian is expected to bring a life-threatening storm surge forecast at up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) to the northwest of the islands. NHC Director Ken Graham saw a worrying, unpredictable situation for Florida, with the hurricane set to hit land somewhere up its east coast and potentially linger over the state, spinning slowly. “Slow is not our friend, the longer you keep this around the more rain we get,” Graham said in a Facebook Live video.

Hurricane Dorian Could Hit Trump's Florida Mar-a-Lago Resort — President Donald Trump’s prized Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida could be directly in the path of Hurricane Dorian, which is forecast to become an extremely destructive storm. The National Hurricane Center’s most recent track for Dorian places Mar-a-Lago in the crosshairs of a possible Category 4 storm with winds of almost 140 mph (225 kph).The resort, currently closed for the summer, is on the wealthy barrier island of Palm Beach. No activity could be seen there Friday afternoon and the Trump Organization did not return a call seeking comment.Mar-a-Lago, which dates from the 1920s, was built by cereal heiress Marjorie Merriweather Post, with the main mansion containing 126 rooms. Trump bought the place in 1985, after efforts to make it into a national park didn’t work out.During the cooler months, Trump visits the property frequently and has held several high-level meetings there with world leaders, such as Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and China’s Xi Jinping. Hurricanes have often been a threat to Mar-a-Lago. In 2005, Trump said he received a $17 million insurance payment for hurricane damage to the resort, but an Associated Press investigation found little evidence of such large-scale damage. At the time, Trump said he didn’t know how much had been spent on repairs, but acknowledged he pocketed some of the money. He transferred funds into his personal accounts, saying that under the terms of his policy “you didn’t have to reinvest it.”

Trump suggests ‘nuking hurricanes’ to stop them hitting America – report - Donald Trump has reportedly suggested on more than one occasion that the US military should bomb hurricanes in order to disrupt them before they make landfall. According to US news website Axios, the president said in a meeting with top national security and homeland security officials about the threat of hurricanes: “I got it. I got it. Why don’t we nuke them?” “They start forming off the coast of Africa, as they’re moving across the Atlantic, we drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?” Quoting unnamed sources who were present at the meeting, Axios report that the response from one official was “We’ll look into this.” On Sunday, the White House declined to comment on the Axios report. “We don’t comment on private discussions that the president may or may not have had with his national security team,” it said.

Hillary Clinton: 'We should not nuke hurricanes' - Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday took a swipe at President Trump following a report that he floated the idea of dropping nuclear bombs into hurricanes to prevent them from reaching the United States. "We should not nuke hurricanes," Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, tweeted. Her comments came just a day after Axios reported that Trump had floated the idea in meetings with Homeland Security and national security officials.The news outlet, citing sources who have heard the president's private remarks and have been briefed on a National Security Council memorandum, noted that the president made the suggestions while receiving briefings about hurricanes. "Why don't we nuke them?" Trump reportedly said at a White House briefing, asserting that a bomb "inside the eye of the hurricane" could disrupt it. Trump earlier Monday pushed back against the report, saying that the story was "fake news." The idea of utilizing nuclear weapons to thwart hurricanes has been floated before. A fact sheet from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notes that the idea gains attention every hurricane season. But the organization said that the action could cause substantial harm to the environment.  "Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems," the sheet reads. "Needless to say, this is not a good idea."

 Trump Moves to Open 16.7 Million Acre Alaskan Rainforest to Corporate Exploitation -- President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the U.S. Department of Agriculture to open Alaska's 16.7 million-acre Tongass National Forest — the planet's largest intact temperate rainforest — to logging and other corporate development projects, a move that comes as thousands of fires are ripping through the Amazon rainforest and putting the "lungs of the world" in grave danger.  The Washington Post, citing anonymous officials briefed on the president's instructions, reported late Tuesday that Trump's policy change would lift 20-year-old logging restrictions that "barred the construction of roads in 58.5 million acres of undeveloped national forest across the country."The move, according to the Post, would affect more than half of the Tongass National Forest, "opening it up to potential logging, energy, and mining projects."The logging restrictions have been under near-constant assault by Republicans since they were implemented, but federal courts have allowed them to stand. As the Post reported: Trump's decision to weigh in, at a time when Forest Service officials had planned much more modest changes to managing the agency's single largest holding, revives a battle that the previous administration had aimed to settle. In 2016, the agency finalized a plan to phase out old-growth logging in the Tongass within a decade. Congress has designated more than 5.7 million acres of the forest as wilderness, which must remain undeveloped under any circumstances. If Trump's plan succeeds, it could affect 9.5 million acres ...

Trump pushes to allow new logging in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest - The Washington Post - President Trump has instructed Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to exempt Alaska’s 16.7-million-acre Tongass National Forest from logging restrictions imposed nearly 20 years ago, according to three people briefed on the issue, after privately discussing the matter with the state’s governor aboard Air Force One. The move would affect more than half of the world’s largest intact temperate rainforest, opening it to potential logging, energy and mining projects. It would undercut a sweeping Clinton administration policy known as the “roadless rule,” which has survived a decades-long legal assault.  Trump has taken a personal interest in “forest management,” a term he told a group of lawmakers last year he has “redefined” since taking office. Politicians have tussled for years over the fate of the Tongass, a massive stretch of southeastern Alaska replete with old-growth spruce, hemlock and cedar, rivers running with salmon, and dramatic fjords. President Bill Clinton put more than half of it off limits to logging just days before leaving office in 2001, when he barred the construction of roads in 58.5 million acres of undeveloped national forest across the country. President George W. Bush sought to reverse that policy, holding a handful of timber sales in the Tongass before a federal judge reinstated the Clinton rule. Timber provides a small fraction of southeastern Alaska’s jobs — just under 1 percent, according to the regional development organization Southeast Conference, compared with seafood processing’s 8 percent and tourism’s 17 percent. But Alaskans, including Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), have pressed Trump to exempt their state from the rule, which does not allow roads except when the Forest Service approves specific projects.  Trump has frequently talked with his advisers about how to manage the nation’s forests and signed an executive order last year aimed at increasing logging by streamlining federal environmental reviews of these projects. The president was widely ridiculed after suggesting during a visit to Paradise, the California community devastated by a 2018 wildfire, that the United States could curb such disasters by following Finland’s model, claiming that nation spends “a lot of time on raking and cleaning and doing things, and they don’t have any problem.”

Alaska Reels During Summer of Fire, Heat and Floods — "Welcome aboard Alaska Airlines Flight 109 to smoky Anchorage," a voice said over the loudspeaker as travelers boarded a plane in Fairbanks.  The skies turned from blue to dark gray halfway through the 260-mile flight, shrouding the stunning vistas below. Then they disappeared altogether. In the final two minutes, as the wheels reached for the runway at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, the smell of smoke filled the pressurized cabin of the Boeing 737 and an eerie orange colored the Alaskan landscape.  Welcome to the Last Frontier, where record-breaking heat is shattering temperature records. Alaska's average temperature in July was 58.1 degrees Fahrenheit — 5.4 degrees above the average and nearly 1 degree higher than the previous high set in July 2004 (Climatewire, Aug. 19).  Scientists say that's contributing to the wildfires that are burning around Anchorage and on the Kenai Peninsula to the south. The blazes, fed by an unusually dry summer and high winds, have closed highways and stranded tourists in their cars."This is extreme for Anchorage to have fires to the south and fires to the north," Sen. Lisa Murkowski told E&E News yesterday at an event featuring EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. In his own remarks, Wheeler noted that several people who were scheduled to participate at the event were stranded by the wildfires. The hazy skies colored Wheeler's remarks about improvements to air quality since the enactment of the Clean Air Act. Aside from the immediate dangers of people being stranded on roads by wildfire, Murkowski said she also feared the health impacts of heavy smoke that choked the state's largest metropolitan area earlier in the week. In Fairbanks — interior Alaska's largest city — the traditionally dry summers that often spark massive wildfires have trended wetter in recent years. On Monday, the Tanana River partially submerged a picnic table and a fire pit. In the Inupiat village of Wales on the Seward Peninsula, residents said the lack of sea ice has disrupted their subsistence way of life. Their culture is eons old. They pleaded for federal support for a sea wall to slow down erosion on their beach. It's normally buffered by sea ice, but now it's increasingly washing into the seawater that edges closer to their village of 150 people.

 Disastrous Wildfires Sweeping Through Alaska Could Permanently Alter Forest Composition - From the Amazon to the last frontier of Alaska, fire season is raging on both sides of the equator and bringing with the flames long-term effects that could permanently alter the diverse ecosystems of both regions. As of Tuesday, the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center reports that more than 200 individual wildfires are burning across the state and threatening more than a thousand structures and forcing hundreds of Alaskans from their homes, reports CNN. In response, Governor Michael Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration for two regions due to three fires — the McKinley, Deshka Landing and Swan Lake wildfires, according to The Hill. In all, TIME reports around 2.5 million acres burned across the state with at least 84 homes and businesses destroyed, according to ABC News.Now, a new study from the Berkeley Lab finds that future summers characterized by similar record high temperatures and extreme wildfires fueled by climate change could cause the irreparable changes within the forest, pushing cold-preferring iconic evergreen conifer trees out as broadleaf deciduous trees move in. "Expansion of the deciduous broadleaf forests in a warmer climate may result in several ecological and climatic feedbacks that affect the carbon cycle of northern ecosystems," said study author and Berkeley Lab postdoctoral fellow Zelalem Mekonnen. Publishing their work in Nature Plants, a team of researchers from universities across North America used predictive modeling of climate conditions and systems to determine how a warming climate will affect forestsystems in higher latitudes. They found that by the end of the century, evergreen conifer trees like the black spruce will drop by up to 25 percent while herbaceous plants like moss and lichen will decline up to 66 percent. Deciduous trees like aspens will almost double in population, dominating the transformed landscape.

Burger King Linked to a Whopping Million-Plus Acres of Deforestation -   Three-quarters of the world’s soy is used for animal feed, and about half of it is exported from South America—grown on deforested land that has been cleared away for massive soy fields.  “The soybeans connected to deforestation are making their way to the feed of the chickens, pigs, and cows that people all around the world eat,”  . “Almost every international company that sells meat has some connection to deforestation in their supply chain.” Enter Burger King. Using satellite and supply-chain mapping tools, Mighty Earth connected the fast-food giant to a whopping million-plus acres of forest-clearing. In its new report, “The Ultimate Mystery Meat,” the global campaign organization identified two of Burger King’s biggest soy suppliers as the culprits: Cargill, the largest privately owned company in the United States, and Bunge, one of the biggest players in South America. “The destruction of tropical forests causes something around one-fifth of the world’s total climate pollution, and deforestation also threatens some of the most endangered species in the world,” says Hurowitz. Ground zero for deforested land is the Cerrado, a 500-million-acre savanna in Brazil. Home to 5 percent of the world’s biodiversity, including threatened species like the jaguar and the giant anteater, half of it has been destroyed—mostly for soy production. In contrast, the Amazon—the Cerrado’s more-famous neighbor to the north and the focus of decades of conservation efforts—has seen a quarter of its ecosystem chopped down.

The Amazon is Burning at a Record Rate -  Real News Network interview with Amazon Watch’s Christian Poirier, with transcript -  The Amazon Rainforest is burning at a record rate. The fires are so big that you can see the smoke from NASA space satellites. On Monday, the sky turned black over the city of Sao Paolo, Brazil and meteorologists found that the smoke filling the sky there was from fires thousands of kilometers away. Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research has documented almost 73,000 forest fires this year already. That’s an 84% uptick from what they saw in the same period last year. This comes amid a spike in deforestation in Brazil under right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. He took office in January. But on Wednesday, Bolsonaro said that NGO’s are to blame for this uptake in fires. Now joining me to talk about this is Christian Poirier, who directs Amazon Watch’s Brazil program. Thank you so much for being here today, Christian.

The Amazon Cannot Be Recovered Once It’s Gone - The Amazon is burning. There have been more than 74,000 fires across Brazil this year, and nearly 40,000 fires across the Amazon, according to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. That’s the fastest rate of burning since record-keeping began, in 2013. Toxic smoke from the fires is so intense that darkness now falls hours before the sun sets in São Paulo, Brazil’s financial capital and the largest city in the Western Hemisphere.  The fires have captured the planet’s attention as little else does. The Amazon is the world’s largest and most diverse tract of rainforest, with millions of species and billions of trees. It stores vast amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide and produces 6 percent of the planet’s oxygen.  So the Amazonian fires—which have been blazing for weeks and notoriously received less coverage than Notre Dame’s burning roof— seem like a potent symbol of humanity’s indifference to environmental disorder, including climate change. But climate change is not the primary cause of the wildfires. Unlike, say, most California blazes—which are sparked by accident and then intensified by climate change—the Amazonian fires are not wildfires at all. These fires did not start by lightning strike or power line: They were ignited. And while they largely affect land already cleared for ranching and farming, they can and do spread into old-growth forest.

Amazon’s indigenous warriors take on invading loggers and ranchers - Threatened by fire, deforestation and invasion, the Xikrin people of the northern Amazon are fighting back. While the authorities stand idle and the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, tries to undermine their territorial rights, the indigenous community have taken matters into their own hands by expelling the loggers and ranchers who illegally occupied their land and set fire to the forest. Armed with rifles and wooden batons, groups of Xikrin warriors have swept through their extensive territory in the state of Pará over the past week. Whenever they encountered fire-scarred land, illegal clearances and habitations, they went from hut to hut, ejecting the invaders and confiscating chainsaws and other tools. At the end of the 40km expedition, the warriors felt empowered. In a war ritual, they marched back to their homes in Rapkô village. As their families gathered round, they showed mobile phone clips of the raid they had conducted on the intruders’ huts. “Why are we protecting our land? So we can hunt. So our sons and grandsons can live well on this land,” said Tikiri Xikrin, one of the oldest warriors, during a ceremony to mark the group’s safe return. “Only if I die will the kuben [white people] occupy the land.” By law, this ought to be the task of the federal police. The 1,651,000-hectare Trincheira Bacajá indigenous territory was officially recognised by the government in 2000. Nobody but the 1,100 members of the Xikrin community has the right to live on it. But the elders know there is scant hope that the government will enforce their rights. The land-grabbers first started to creep into the area in June last year, using a rough road that had been cut into the forest by illegal loggers. The Xikrin filed complaints to official agencies several times, but to no avail.

Leaked documents show Brazil’s Bolsonaro has grave plans for Amazon rainforest - Leaked documents show that Jair Bolsonaro's government intends to use the Brazilian president's hate speech to isolate minorities living in the Amazon region. The PowerPoint slides, which democraciaAbierta has seen, also reveal plans to implement predatory projects that could have a devastating environmental impact. The Bolsonaro government has as one of its priorities to strategically occupy the Amazon region to prevent the implementation of multilateral conservation projects for the rainforest, specifically the so-called “Triple A” project. "Development projects must be implemented on the Amazon basin to integrate it into the rest of the national territory in order to fight off international pressure for the implementation of the so-called 'Triple A' project. To do this, it is necessary to build the Trombetas River hydroelectric plant, the Óbidos bridge over the Amazon River, and the implementation of the BR-163 highway to the border with Suriname," one of slides read. One of the tactics cited in the document is to redefine the paradigms of indigenism, quilombolism and environmentalism through the lenses of liberalism and conservatism. A meeting among government officials in February used a PowerPoint presentation that details the projects announced by the Bolsonaro government for the region. The presentation, which was leaked to democraciaAbierta, argues that a strong government presence in the Amazon region is important to prevent any conservation projects from taking roots.  

G7 can’t turn a blind eye to ecocide in the Amazon - When G7 leaders sit in judgment on Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro this weekend, the question they should ask themselves is whether the rape of the natural world should finally be treated as a crime. The language of sexual violence will be familiar to the former army captain, who publicly admires the sadistic torturers of the dictatorship era and once said to a congresswoman, “I would never rape you because you are not worth it.” Last month, after Pope Francis and European leaders expressed concern about the Amazon, Bolsonaro lashed back by claiming: “Brazil is a virgin that every foreign pervert desires.”As a nationalist, the president sees the Amazon in terms of ownership and sovereignty. As a chauvinist, he sees the region as a possession to be exploited and opened up, rather than cherished and nurtured.Since taking power eight months ago, Bolsonaro has, layer by layer, stripped the rainforest of protections. First, he weakened the environment ministry and put it in the hands of a minister convicted of environmental fraud. Second, he undermined the agency responsible for monitoring the forest, Ibama. Third, he alienated Norway and Germany, the main donors to forest-protection causes. Fourth, he tried to hide what was happening by sacking the head of the space agency responsible for satellite data on destruction. Fifth, he accused environmental charities of starting fires and working for foreign interests. And sixth, he verbally attacked Amazon dwellers – the indigenous and Quilombola communities who depend on a healthy forest.With these defences down, the president has encouraged outsiders from the mining, logging and farming industries to take advantage of economic opportunities. The results have been brutal. Last month, deforestation surged by 278%. This month is almost certain to be a record for August under the current monitoring system. The wounds are impossible to cover up. The Amazon’s fires are now burning on front pages, news broadcasts and social networks across the world.

Thousands of people marched in São Paulo to pressure the Brazilian government to do something about the burning Amazon Rainforest. Here’s what it looked like on the ground.– Thousands of people filled the streets on Friday to pressure the the Brazilian government to fight the forest fires that are ravaging the Amazon Rainforest, often called the “lungs of the planet.” Friday night, following pressure from his own people and the international community, and after weeks of spreading misinformation about the fires, President Jair Bolsonaro said he would send the army to fight them and prevent deforestation. See what the demonstration in São Paulo looked like on the ground, with thousands calling to protect the precious Amazônia.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro reverses on Amazon, announces plans to send armed forces to fight wildfires - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reversed course Saturday, saying he plans to send the country’s military to fight raging wildfires in the Amazon. Bolsonaro authorized the troop deployment Saturday morning for the next month in a presidential decree obtained by CNN. Brazil's environmental agency, IBAMA, also announced Friday it is bringing on hundreds of temporary firefighters to help combat the fires. "The Amazon rainforest is an essential part of our history, our territory and everything that makes us feel," Bolsonaro said. "Being Brazilian, our wealth is invaluable both in terms of biodiversity and natural resources." The move marked a reversal for Bolsonaro, who has dismissed claims that his government’s policies contributed to the fires and fought back against international pressure to take further action, saying other nations were running a “fake news” campaign and attempting to meddle in Brazil’s sovereignty. “These countries that send money here, they don’t send it out of charity,” the right-wing president said in a live broadcast on Thursday. “They send it with the aim of interfering with our sovereignty.” Bolsonaro, who rode a populist wave to victory in 2018, vowed to open up the Amazon rainforest to business development, saying Brazil's environmental policies were “suffocating” its economy. Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research released data earlier this year showing that deforestation increased by 88 percent in June compared to the same month last year. Fires in Brazil are also up 85 percent this year compared to 2018, with a majority occurring in the Amazon, the institute said. The Brazilian president this week tried to shift the blame to nongovernmental organizations for the wildfires, claiming that some groups were setting the blazes to harm his image. The wildfires have since evolved into a worldwide topic of conversation, with Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) calling on the U.S. to cut all funding to Brazil until the fires are put out and French President Emmanuel Macron, who is hosting and setting the agenda for the Group of Seven summit this weekend, calling the blazes an “international crisis.”

Brazilian Military Planes Douse Flames as Amazon Fires Reach Bolivia - Heavy smoke blanketed the city of Porto Velho in the northwestern state of Rondonia as military planes struggled to douse the fires raging in the Amazon that have raised an international outcry. A video posted by Brazil's Ministry of Defense showed a C-130 Hercules plane, one of two sent to the region, dumping water out of its jets while flying over the smoke-covered rainforest canopy near Porto Velho. A @portalfab emprega, a partir de hoje (24/08), duas aeronaves C-130 Hércules no combate aos focos de incêndio na #Amazônia, partindo de Porto Velho (RO). Confira a ação:pic.twitter.com/Fq4fGddL0O — Ministério da Defesa (@DefesaGovBr) August 24, 2019    After facing international criticism that Brazil was not doing enough to fight the fires, President Jair Bolsonaro announced earlier in the week that he would send in the military to fight the fires. As of Sunday, Bolsonaro had authorized military operations in seven of Brazil's 26 states in response to requests for help from local governments. On Sunday, the Ministry of Defense said in a briefing that 44,000 troops were available in the northern Amazon region but did not provide further operational details as to where they would be deployed and what they would do.

Brazil's Bolsonaro 'Angrily' Rejects $22M in Aid From G7 - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro angrily rejected $22 million international aid offered by the G7 this week as fires burning in the Amazon continue to wreak havoc in the rainforest. Bolsonaro, who has accused other countries of trying to take Brazil's sovereignty through investments and aid in the Amazon, seemed to walk back some of his sentiments on Tuesday, accepting an offer of $12 million in aid from Britain and saying he would consider taking the G7 money if French President Emmanuel Macron withdrew "insults" made against him.  Norway, which in August suspended donations to a fund to protect the Amazon in protest over Bolsonaro'sdeforestation policies, warned its companies based in the Amazon Tuesday to be careful to not contribute to deforestation. "The Amazon fires are a test case of sorts for how the climate crisis will strain the usefulness of seemingly simple concepts — like national sovereignty," Quinta Jurecic writes in an op-ed for the New York Times. For a deeper dive: New York Times, CNN, Reuters, Washington Post, Bloomberg, Bloomberg, Reuters, New York Times, Quinta Jurecic op-ed, New York Times, Roberto Mangabeira Unger op-ed, Washington Post, Kathleen Parker column, Washington Post, Greg Sargent column

Brazil to reject G7 Amazon aid unless Macron withdraws ‘insults’ - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said on Tuesday that Brazil will only accept an offer of international aid to fight thousands of fires raging in the Amazon if French leader Emmanuel Macronretracts comments that he finds offensive.The two leaders have become embroiled in a deeply personal and public war of words in recent days, with Bolsonaro mocking Macron's wife on Facebook and accusing the French president of disrespecting Brazil's sovereignty.Bolsonaro's Chief of Staff Onyx Lorenzoni also saidBrazil would reject the G7 offer of millions of dollars in aid, according to news website G1, although his office said that was his personal view.Speaking to reporters in Brasilia on Tuesday, Bolsonaro appeared to adopt a slightly more conciliatory stance. "Did I say that? Did I?" Bolsonaro said when questioned about Lorenzoni's comments."First of all, Macron has to withdraw his insults. He called me a liar. Before we talk or accept anything from France ... he must withdraw these words then we can talk," Bolsonaro said. "First he withdraws, then offers [aid], then I will answer." Macron has questioned Bolsonaro's trustworthiness and commitment to protecting biodiversity. The French president earlier on Tuesday said the Amazon, while mostly Brazilian, was a world issue.  "We respect your sovereignty. It's your country," Macron said. "But we cannot allow you to destroy everything."

Finland urges EU to consider banning Brazilian beef over Amazon fires (Reuters) - Finland, which holds the European Union’s rotating chairmanship, called on Friday for the EU to look into the possibility of banning Brazilian beef from its markets due to devastation caused by fires in the Amazon rainforest. “Finance Minister Mika Lintila condemns the destruction of Amazon rainforests and suggests that the EU and Finland should urgently review the possibility of banning Brazilian beef imports,” Finland’s finance ministry said in a statement.

‘Worst of wildfires still to come’ despite Brazil claiming crisis is under control  - The fires raging in the Brazilian Amazon are likely to intensify over the coming weeks, a leading environmental expert has warned, despite government claims the situation had been controlled. About 80,000 blazes have been detected in Brazil this year – more than half in the Amazon region – although on Saturday the far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, claimed the situation was “returning to normal”.On Monday Brazil’s defense minister, Fernando Azevedo e Silva, told reporters: “The situation is not straightforward but it’s under control and already cooling down nicely.”But in an article for Brazil’s O Globo newspaper on Wednesday, one prominent forestry expert warned that the country’s annual burning season had yet to fully play out and called for urgent steps to reduce the potential damage.“The worst of the fire is still to come,” wrote Tasso Azevedo, a forest engineer and environmentalist who coordinates the deforestation monitoring groupMapBiomas. Azevedo said many of the areas currently being consumed by flames were stretches of Amazon rainforest that had been torn down in the months of April, May and June. But areas deforested in July and August – when government monitoring systems detected a major surge in destruction – had yet to be torched.The Brazilian Amazon lost 1,114.8 sq km (430 sq miles) – an area equivalent to Hong Kong – in the first 26 days of August, according to preliminary data from the government’s satellite monitoring agency. An area half the size of Philadelphia was reportedly lost in July, with Brazilian media denouncing an “explosion” of devastation in the Amazon. Azevedo wrote: “What we are experiencing is a genuine crisis which could become a tragedy foretold with much larger fires than the ones we are now seeing if they are not immediately halted.”

Brazil Announces 60-Day Ban on Clearing Land With Fire - Brazil's right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro signed a decree Wednesday banning the use of fire to clear land in the Amazon rainforest for 60 days, CNN reported.  The ban was announced Thursday morning but went into effect the day it was signed. It follows an international outcry over the record number of fires burning in the world's largest tropical rainforest. Bolsonaro has been blamed for encouraging deforestation with his promises to open the Amazon to mining and farming.  The ban was signed the same day that a forestry expert issued a dire warning in Brazil's O Globo newspaper, as The Guardian reported."The worst of the fire is still to come," Tasso Azevedo, an environmental expert and advocate who coordinates the deforestation monitoring group MapBiomas, wrote.Azevedo explained that much of the area burned in July and August had first been cleared in April, May and June. Forest cut down in the summer has not yet burned. He recommended increasing protection for indigenous territories and conservation areas, and for a burn ban lasting until the end of the dry season in late October."What we are experiencing is a genuine crisis which could become a tragedy foretold with much larger fires than the ones we are now seeing if they are not immediately halted," he wrote.The ban announced Thursday roughly follows the timeline Azevedo recommended, but environmentalists expressed doubts that it would be effective, BBC News reported. They pointed out that many fires are already started illegally, and the problem is a lack of enforcement. The ban does allow for burning to preserve plant health, prevent wildfires and for subsistence agricultural techniques used by indigenous people.

Burning issue: how fashion’s love of leather is fuelling the fires in the Amazon -- The level of destruction is almost impossible to fathom. About 41,000 fires have been recorded by scientists in the Brazilian Amazon since January, with more than half of those in the past three weeks – hence the apocalyptic headlines. Every minute, the equivalent of a football field and a half of the so-called lungs of the Earth is incinerated. The rainforest isn’t just totemic, we know that the future stability of the climate rests on preserving it. To be an onlooker to this burning triggers the type of overwhelming anxiety that probably won’t be soothed by wearing a “save the rainforest” T-shirt like we did in the 1980s. In fact, that’s the last thing we should be doing, because the Amazon burn is very much a fashion crisis, connected to the leather your shoes are made from and the bag on your shoulder. We need action. This has been evident for a decade. In 2009, Greenpeace published Slaughtering the Amazon, a report that should have – and nearly did – change everything. The report concluded that the demand for leather was fuelling the destruction of the Amazon in its own right, not just accidentally as a by-product of beef. Researchers found cattle ranchers were clearing rainforest illegally despite laws protecting it, including Brazil’s “forest code”. One hectare of rainforest was being lost to ranches every 18 seconds. Through a murky supply chain, Brazilian beef companies were supplying leather to leading global fashion brands and retailers, across price points and across retail markets.   In 2012, I travelled to cattle-producing states with agro-forestry researchers to meet ranchers. The researchers were trying to persuade them that there was greater economic value in saving the rainforest biome than in destroying it.  Two things were stunningly clear to me from the outset. While the Amazon is more closely connected to iconic species of megafauna – including jaguars, tapirs and all manner of large, wildly coloured birds – the whole country is really about the cow, specifically the Nelore, an Indian import with folds of skin collecting around its neck. From 1993 to 2013, the Brazilian herd grew 200% to more than 60m cows. Everywhere you looked as evening fell across treeless ranches, you’d see their forms silhouetted against the dusty backdrop. The second was how deeply ingrained the slash and burn model of agriculture was in ranchers. This was a hangover from the 1970s when across the country government posters urged prospectors to head to the Amazon and settle the land. The quickest way to gain land rights? Chop the trees, burn them, put cattle on the land. Never stop. Keep pushing forwards into the rainforest. This is the deeply held ethos that Bolsonaro has been able to tap into.

It’s not just Brazil’s Amazon rainforest that’s ablaze – Bolivian fires are threatening people and wildlife  --Up to 800,000 hectares of the unique Chiquitano forest were burned to the ground in Bolivia between August 18 and August 23. That’s more forest than is usually destroyed across the country in two years. Experts say that it will take at least two centuries to repair the ecological damage done by the fires, while at least 500 species are said to be at risk from the flames.The Chiquitano dry forest in Bolivia was the largest healthy tropical dry forest in the world. It’s now unclear whether it will retain that status. The forest is home to Indigenous peoples as well as iconic wildlife such as jaguars, giant armadillos, and tapirs. Some species in the Chiquitano are found nowhere else on Earth. Distressing photographs and videos from the area show many animals have burned to death in the recent fires. The burnt region also encompasses farmland and towns, with thousands of people evacuated and many more affected by the smoke. Food and water are being sent to the region, while children are being kept home from school in many districts where the air pollution is double what is considered extreme. Many families are still without drinking water. While the media has focused on Brazil, Bolivians are asking the world to notice their unfolding tragedy – and to send help in combating the flames.It’s thought that the fires were started deliberately to clear the land for farming, but quickly got out of control. The perpetrators aren’t known, but Bolivian President Evo Morales has justified people starting fires, saying: “If small families don’t set fires, what are they going to live on?”The disaster comes just a month after Morales announced a new “supreme decree” aimed at increasing beef p roduction for export. Twenty-one civil society organisations are calling for the repeal of this decree, arguing that it has helped cause the fires and violates Bolivia’s environmental laws. Government officials say that fire setting is a normal activity at this time of year and isn’t linked to the decree.

How the Amazon's fires, deforestation affect the U.S. Midwest -- The Amazon's lush greenery and network of waterways are at risk in the face of this summer's record fires, but another force of nature brewing high above the landscape is also deserving of attention, scientists and researchers say. An invisible atmospheric river that carries water vapor from the rainforest's billions of trees helps to hydrate the land, as well as provide moisture across the South American continent. However, the continued loss of vegetation in the Amazon could have a cumulative effect, not only in contributing to climate change but also affecting rainfall patterns around the globe, including the U.S. Midwest, threatening food production and destabilizing ecosystems, according to the experts."The Amazon is definitely a weather engine," said Meg Symington, the World Wildlife Fund's senior director for the Amazon in the United States."It's well-known that the weather patterns affect rainfall in the breadbasket of South America," she added, "but there's also evidence that it affects the breadbasket that is the middle of the U.S." The Iriri River at the Arara indigenous land, in the Amazonian Rainforest, Para State, Brazil on March 15, 2019.Mauro Pimentel / AFP - Getty Images file A 2014 study in the journal Nature Climate Change found that "complete Amazon deforestation would reduce rainfall in the U.S. Midwest, Northwest and parts of the south during the agricultural season." Similarly, deforestation in Central Africa would also have an effect on different areas of the U.S., the report found. That's because by cutting down trees, moisture that would cool the air is lost and the warmer air rises to the upper atmosphere, creating ripples that flow outward and can alter the climate of other regions. While some areas could see a decline in rainfall, such as the U.S. Midwest and southern France, an opposite effect of more precipitation might be seen in Hawaii and the United Kingdom, according to the study, although the exact scale is still unclear. A 2018 report published through the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies noted that as humans "shave the planet of trees, we risk drying up these aerial rivers and the lands that depend on them for rain.

More fires burning across central Africa than Amazon as global deforestation rates approach record high - While focus has slowly grown on the fires ravaging the Amazon rainforest in Brazil, it has emerged an even greater number of fires are currently burning in central Africa. Data from Nasa’s Fire Information for Resource Management System, showed at least 6,902 fires in Angola and 3,395 burning in theDemocratic Republic of the Congo.The same data put Brazil’s fires at 2,127.The huge surge in fires in the Amazon this year has caused global concern. The rainforest stores enormous amounts of carbon in the complex ecosystem, it is the most biodiverse land area on earth, and its conservation is essential if we are to limit the impacts of global heating.In Africa however, the extent of the fires affecting forested areas is unclear. In agricultural areas purpose-lit fires have been a common part of farming techniques for thousands of years.  Farmers set crop fields alight to burn off the leftover grasses and scrub plants. This burning helps maintain rich soils good for farming. But lack of traditional grasslands is driving increased slash and burn clearing of forests in parts of Africa, and therefore concerns are growing.In the Amazon scientists have warned the rapid rate of deforestation means the forest is increasingly at risk of reaching a tipping point at which huge swathes of the rainforest will degrade into areas of dry savannah.“You’d have extensive parts of the southern and eastern Amazon and parts of the central converting to savannah, and maybe to even drier conditions,” Professor Thomas Lovejoy of George Mason University told The Independent. The forest fires in Brazil have also largely been caused by agricultural activity, as landowners burn stubble after harvest, use illegal slash and burn clearing techniques to create land for crops or rearing beef, or have carried out logging to raise the value of the land.Despite increasing global awareness of the problem of illegal deforestation, greater areas of tropical rainforest are being lost than ever. More tree cover was lost across the world in 2016 and 2017 than in any other year this century. In the Brazilian Amazon, the rate of deforestation in July hit 870 square miles, or about five football pitches every minute of the entire month.

NASA Images Show Africa Has Five Times More Wildfires Burning Than The Amazon—Here's Why They're Different - There are now approximately five times as many wildfires burning in Africa than in the Amazon, according to images captured by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) technology last week. The affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Cameroon and Angola in the heart of Central Africa. The individual blazes are confined primarily to the Savanna, drawing concern because of their close proximity to forests in the Congo Basin, an area made especially vulnerable by deforestation caused by industrial activity in the region.The Savanna wildfires pose a threat to the world's second-largest tropical forest, which spans 500 million acres and provides a home to more than 2,000 species of animals and roughly 10,000 species of plants. The MODIS images documented more than 6,902 fires in Angola and 3,395 fires in the DRC, while picking up on just over 2,000 in Brazil.French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted about the devastation in the Savanna during the G7 summit, prompting many on social media to ask why the African wildfires are not getting the same amount of attention as those in the Amazon. This came after Brazil's President JairBolsonaro rejected $22 million in proposed funding on Monday to help put out the blazes in Amazon, saying the money would be better spent elsewhere.However, as both government leaders and environmental advocates point out, there are no clear comparisons to be made between the two regions. The longstanding practice of slash-and-burn agriculture, as well as a seasonal rise in temperature across the area, are primarily to blame for the flames in Central Africa—while the Amazon has been experiencing periods of drought that are uncharacteristic of the region, DRC Ambassador Tosi Mpanu Mpanu told theAFPon Monday.While the Amazon rainforest has often been referred to as the Earth's "lungs," the areas of undergrowth in the Congo Basin has shared similar s tatus for trailing marginally behind it as the world's second-largest tropical forest. It spans 500 million acres and provides a home to more than 2,000 species of animals and roughly 10,000 species of plants—30 percent of which grow only in that region, according to the World Wildlife Fund.

Hotter, larger fires turning boreal forest into carbon source: research -- Bigger, hotter wildfires are turning Canada’s vast boreal forest into a significant new source of climate-changing greenhouse gases, scientists say. The shift, which may have already happened, could force firefighters to change how they battle northern blazes, said Merritt Turetsky, an ecologist at the University of Guelph and co-author of a paper that appeared in the science journal Nature on Wednesday. “It’s making it much more difficult for us to target those reductions in human emissions because, all of a sudden, we have all these unaccounted-for sources.” The boreal forest, a band of green that stretches over six provinces and two territories, has long been a storehouse of carbon. Although fires sweep through as often as every 70 years, much carbon remains in the soil and slowly builds up — up to 75 kilograms of carbon per cubic metre, some of it thousands of years old. But with climate change, fires are becoming more frequent, larger and more intense. Researchers found that even after the fires, older forests continued to preserve carbon where it was protected by a thick layer of organic soil. But the old carbon burned in nearly half of the younger stands where the soil wasn’t as thick. And what didn’t burn rapidly decomposed into the atmosphere. “There are areas where there’s no organic soil left and it’s just exposed mineral soil,” Walker said. Turetsky said the boreal forest is gradually becoming younger as fires increase in size and frequency. “Now those old forests are young forests, so when the next forest fire hits that area, those are going to be systems that are vulnerable to legacy carbon release.

Africa’s tropical land emitted more CO2 than the US in 2016, satellite data shows --Africa’s tropical land released close to 6bn tonnes of CO2 in 2016, according to data taken by satellites. This means that, if Africa’s tropical regions were a country, it would be the second largest emitter of CO2 in the world – ahead of the US, which currently emits 5.3bn tonnes of CO2 a year. The region’s 2016 emissions were “unexpectedly large”, the authors write in Nature Communications. This is because the land surface is covered by tropical forests and peatlands, environments which typically absorb large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.  The high rate of CO2 loss in 2016 could be associated with a “strong” El Niño, scientists tell Carbon Brief. El Niño is a natural phenomenon that periodically affects weather in many parts of the world. In the African tropics, it can cause unusually high temperatures and drought. Other causes of CO2 emissions could include “substantial land-use change”, including deforestation and fires associated with agriculture, the study says. Africa is home to one third of the world’s tropical rainforests. Tropical forests are capable of storing large amounts of CO2. This is because trees absorb carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis and then use it to grow new leaves, shoots and roots. The continent is also home to around 3% of the world’s peatlands, including the world’s most extensive tropical peatland. Peatlands are water-logged environments that can hold huge stores of soil carbon. Though the African tropics are a globally important carbon store, there have been few studies looking into the extent of year-to-year CO2 emissions from the land in this region. The new study analyses data taken by two satellites that recorded CO2 emissions stemming from the Africa’s tropical land from 2014-17. These satellites include Japan’s greenhouse gases observing satellite (GOSAT) and NASA’s orbiting carbon observatory (OCO-2).  Data taken from both satellites shows that some parts of tropical Africa’s land are now releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere than they are able to absorb through their trees and soils, says study lead author Prof Paul Palmer, a researcher of geosciences from the University of Edinburgh.

Earth Stopped Getting Greener 20 Years Ago -- The world is gradually becoming less green, scientists have found. Plant growth is declining all over the planet, and new research links the phenomenon to decreasing moisture in the air—a consequence of climate change. The study published yesterday in Science Advances points to satellite observations that revealed expanding vegetation worldwide during much of the 1980s and 1990s. But then, about 20 years ago, the trend stopped. Since then, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have been experiencing a “browning” trend, or decrease in plant growth, according to the authors. Climate records suggest the declines are associated with a metric known as vapor pressure deficit—that’s the difference between the amount of moisture the air actually holds versus the maximum amount of moisture it could be holding. A high deficit is sometimes referred to as an atmospheric drought. Since the late 1990s, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have experienced a growing deficit, or drying pattern. Climate models indicate that vapor pressure deficit is likely to continue increasing as the world warms—a pattern that “might have a substantially negative impact on vegetation,” the authors write. It’s not the first study to document the global decline in vegetation. A 2010 study in Science was among the first to demonstrate that the greening increases of the 1990s had stalled or reversed. That study also suggested that the declines were probably water-related.

China heat wave to affect 100 million -  China is the latest country to be enveloped in exceptional warmth, joining a growing list of nations worldwide to be sizzling during one of the top four warmest years on record. The China Meteorological Administration has issued a Yellow Warning of Heatwave for regions south of the Yangtze River in southeastern and southern China. As many as 100 million people are at risk of temperatures flirting with the 100-degree mark.“During the daytime of August 23, most portions of the ... Jianghan Region, eastern Southwest China, and western Jianghuai Region will be exposed to [a] heat wave of over [95 degrees],” read the bulletin. Temperatures of 98-102 degrees “will grip Hunan, Jiangxi, [the] eastern Sichuan Basin, northwestern Fujian, and northern Guangdong and Guangxi.” Hunan province alone has a population of 67 million.That would be the equivalent of all of the West Coast and New England baking in triple-digit heat. Factoring in widespread tropical dew points in China between 70 and 74 degrees, that yields a “feels like” temperature of 109 degrees. According to the International Energy Agency, 60 percent of Chinese households have air conditioning — primarily only in urban areas. That’s about a third less than in the United States.  Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, is expected to hit 99 degrees on Saturday and Sunday; their average this time of year is in the upper 80s. To the west in Sichuan province, Chongqing could hit the century mark Saturday, Sunday and Monday. For an episode to technically be classified as a heat wave, it must feature three consecutive days of 90-degree temperatures or greater. Some cities in China could see three consecutive hundred-degree days instead. The heat extends west toward Chengdu, its periphery banked against the eastern foothills of the Tibetan Plateau. Chengdu, a city known for its world-famous “hot pot,” will be pretty hot itself this weekend. They’re set to peak at 95 on Sunday, 14 degrees above average. Laos, Cambodia and northern Vietnam will also feel the heat dome’s effects.

 'Disturbing': Europe Is Warming Much Faster Than Science Predicted - Summers in Europe are much hotter than they used to be and winters aren't nearly as cold as they once were. And, the continent is warming much faster than climate models had once projected. That is the disturbing takeaway from a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. This summer saw two unbearable heat waves blanket Europe. The second set new records for high temperature when the mercury hit 114.8 degrees Fahrenheit in Southern France. As the climate crisis worsens, Europe can expect extreme heat more frequently and with increased intensity, the researchers said in a press release put out by the American Geophysical Union. The European summer and winter are seeing hotter days. Extremely hot days have gotten 4.14 degrees Fahrenheit hotter on average, the study found. In the winter, extremely cold days warmed up by an average of 5.4 degrees F. The research analyzed nearly 70 years of temperatures from weather stations across Europe, dating back to 1950. The researchers found that more than 90 percent of stations showed a trend of global heating, as Environment 360 at Yale reported. When such a large number of weather stations report the same data, it's too high a percentage to be from natural variability. "Even at this regional scale over Europe, we can see that these trends are much larger than what we would expect from natural variability," said Ruth Lorenz, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland, and lead author of the study, in a statement. "That's really a signal from climate change." While most Europeans are abundantly aware of the climate changing before their eyes, the disturbing finding is that the rate of heating is beyond what any climate models had predicted, as Gizmodo reported.

What happens when permafrost melts? Russia has more than enough permafrost: two-thirds of the country, from Taimyr to Chukotka, is frozen ground. Life in those areas is not easy: winters are cold, not much grows on that land, and any construction is very expensive. Yet, despite all this, local residents are doing their utmost to preserve the permafrost, while permafrost scientists are closely monitoring any climate changes that could affect those areas. Nothing is permanent, not even in nature Strictly speaking, the term ‘permafrost’ is not very accurate from a scientific point of view. The Russian term “permanent frost” originated in the 1920s, but already in the 1950s, scientists decided that there was nothing permanent in nature and began to refer to it as “perennial frost”, explains Nikita Tananaev, a hydrologist at the Permafrost Institute in Yakutsk. “Their definition of it was simple: ground that remains frozen for two or more years.” In fact, its upper layer melts a little in the summer, creating very interesting landscapes. The following photos were taken near the village of Syrdakh in Yakutia. The “summer” permafrost earth looks like melted chocolate that flows directly into a lake. This phenomenon is pretty common for Yakutia. In summer, temperatures here rise to above 30C and permafrost thaws two to three meters deep. In winter, it will freeze again. There are areas where there is clear ice underground, says Tananaev. “From above, they resemble a giant net. For thousands of years, the soil would freeze, shrink in volume and crack, and in summer, it would fill with water, gradually sprouting narrow ice streaks tens of meters deep into the ground. This is how the polygonal tundra is formed.” These polygons are quite small, under 40 square meters. There are hundreds of them in Yakutia, Taimyr, and Chukotka.

Germany seeks more active role in Arctic amid climate change (AP) — Germany says it plans to take a more active role in Arctic affairs, citing the far north’s growing ecological, political and economic significance as a result of climate change.Cabinet passed a resolution Wednesday declaring its intention to send German experts to advise the Arctic Council. It also plans to campaign for an expansion of environmental protection areas in the Arctic and explore the potential that the increasingly ice-free Northwest and Northern Passages have for shipping during the summer.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday after a meeting with Nordic leaders that her country, which is an observer in the Arctic Council, will “keep an eye on the strategic role of the Arctic.” Merkel said Germany would seek to prevent the Arctic from becoming “an object of ruthless exploitation and natural destruction.”

Teen activist sails across Atlantic to go to climate meeting - The Washington Post — Swedish teen climate activist Greta Thunberg arrived in New York City to chants and cheers Wednesday after a trans-Atlantic trip on a sailboat to attend a global warming conference.  Thunberg, 16, and her crew were escorted into a lower Manhattan marina at about 4 p.m., concluding a two-week crossing from Plymouth, England. Hundreds of activists gathered on a Hudson River promenade to cheer her arrival. Thunberg waved, was lifted onto a dock, then took her first wobbly steps on dry land.  “All of this is very overwhelming,” she said of the reception, looking slightly embarrassed. The teenager refused to fly because of the carbon cost of plane travel. A 2018 study said that because of cloud and ozone formation, air travel may trap two to four times more heat than that caused by just emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Thunberg has become a symbol of a growing movement of young climate activists, leading weekly school strikes in Sweden that inspired similar actions in about 100 cities. She’s in New York to speak at the United Nations Climate Action Summit next month. There, she’ll join world leaders who will present plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Speaking to reporters after she landed, Thunberg said the trip wasn’t as uncomfortable as she expected. She didn’t get seasick once, she said. But she stressed that “this is not something I want everyone to do.”  “It is insane that a 16-year-old would have to cross the Atlantic Ocean to make a stand,” she said. “The climate and ecological crisis is a global crisis, the biggest crisis that humanity has ever faced, and if we don’t manage to work together and to cooperate and to work together despite our differences, then we will fail.”  This was no pleasure cruise. The Malizia is built for high-speed, offshore racing, and weight is kept to a minimum. There is no toilet — just a bucket — or fixed shower aboard, no windows below deck and only a small gas cooker to heat up freeze-dried food.The boat was accompanied into New York by a flotilla of 17 sailboats the United Nations organized — one for each of the 17 U.N. goals to end poverty and preserve the environment by 2030, including action to prevent climate change.

What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? - We've been hearing variations of the phrase "the world only has 12 years to deal with climate change" a lot lately. Sen. Bernie Sanders put a version of it front and center of his presidentialcampaign last week, saying we now have "less than 11 years left to transform our energy system away from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and sustainable energy, if we are going to leave this planet healthy and habitable." But where does the idea of having 11 or 12 years come from, and what does it actually mean?   The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO2 emissions would have to start dropping "well before 2030" and be on a path to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time). Mid-century is actually the more significant target date in the report, but acting now is crucial to being able to meet that goal, said Duke University climate researcher Drew Shindell, a lead author on the mitigation chapter of the IPCC report.  Basics physics and climate science allow scientists to calculate how much CO2 it takes to raise the global temperature—and how much CO2 can still be emitted before global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F) compared to pre-industrial times. Scientists worked backward from that basic knowledge to come up with timelines for what would have to happen to stay under 1.5°C warming, said Scott Denning, who studies the warming atmosphere at Colorado State University. "They figured out how much extra heat we can stand. They calculated how much CO2 would produce that much heat, then how much total fuel would produce that much CO2. Then they considered 'glide paths' for getting emissions to zero before we burn too much carbon to avoid catastrophe," he said. "All this work gets summarized as 'in order to avoid really bad outcomes, we have to be on a realistic glide path toward a carbon-free global economy by 2030.' And that gets translated to something like 'emissions have to fall by half in a decade,' and that gets oversimplified to '12 years left.'

The case for strategic and managed climate retreat - Science - Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat—moving people and assets out of harm's way—but why, where, when, and how they will retreat. To the extent that retreat is already happening, it is typically ad hoc and focused on risk reduction in isolation from broader societal goals. It is also frequently inequitable and often ignores the communities left behind or those receiving people who retreat. Retreat has been seen largely as a last resort, a failure to adapt, or a one-time emergency action; thus, little research has focused on retreat, leaving practitioners with little guidance. Such a narrow conception of retreat has limited decision-makers' perception of the tools available and stilted innovation. We propose a reconceptualization of retreat as a suite of adaptation options that are both strategic and managed. Strategy integrates retreat into long-term development goals and identifies why retreat should occur and, in doing so, influences where and when. Management addresses how retreat is executed. By reconceptualizing retreat as a set of tools used to achieve societal goals, communities and nations gain additional adaptation options and a better chance of choosing the actions most likely to help their communities thrive. We argue for strategy that incorporates socioeconomic development and for management that is innovative, evidence-based, and context-specific. These are not radical alterations to adaptation practice—adaptation planning often starts with identifying the goals people have, and context-specific implementation has long been a central tenet of adaptation—but they have been underapplied to retreat. Retreat is hard to do and even harder to do well, for many reasons: short-term economic gains of coastal development; subsidized insurance rates and disaster recovery costs; misaligned incentives between residents, local officials, and national governments; imperfect risk perceptions; place attachment; and preference for the status quo (1–6). A reconceptualization could make strategic, managed retreat an efficient and equitable adaptation option.

Trump administration to roll back regulation on methane, a major climate change contributor - The Trump administration will announce on Thursday plans to weaken regulation on climate-changing methane emissions, CNBC has confirmed. The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rule would lessen restrictions on oil and gas sites to monitor and repair methane leaks from pipelines and storage facilities. The rule would be the latest move by the Trump administration to roll back Obama-era emission regulations on major oil and gas industries, which are the main source of methane emissions in the U.S.Carbon dioxide is the most substantial greenhouse gas, and methane is the second. However, methane has 80 times the heating-trapping capability of carbon dioxide during the first 20 years in the atmosphere, and comprises nearly 10% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.Some major oil, gas and auto companies have actually opposed the Trump administration’s rollback proposals.Four of the world’s biggest automakers opposed Trump’s plan to let vehicles pollute more by striking a deal in California to curb their own emissions. And some electric utility companies have opposed the EPA’s weakened regulations on toxic mercury emissions by coal-burning power plants. Fossil fuel companies including Shell, Exxon and BP have opposed the methane rule rollback and urged the EPA to continue to regulate those emissions. Some have noted their own pledges to reduce methane leaks from their operations.

Sanders Unveils $16 Trillion Green New Deal Plan, and Ideas to Pay for It - Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders unveiled a $16.3 trillion plan for a Green New Deal on Thursday, giving shape to a massive program to overhaul the nation's economy and eliminate fossil fuel use by mid-century.The plan sets some of the most ambitious goals announced by any candidate yet, including setting a 2030 deadline for both electricity and transportation to be run entirely on renewable energy.The idea of launching a Green New Deal, on par with the New Deal of the 1930s, has captured the attention of young activists who see it as a social and economic revolution to combat climate change. The version discussed so far publicly and in Congress has been mostly aspirational. Sanders' plan starts to layer in detail and answer key questions about cost and how to pay for it.The price tag for the Vermont senator's plan is far higher than the climate plans announced by any of his rivals, but it's also more wide-reaching. It describes how the money would be spent across the economy, from grants for new electric vehicles, to funds to help farms capture carbon in the soil, to job training, including $1.3 trillion in support for workers in the fossil fuel industry. True to the Green New Deal's core concepts, the proposal laces environmental and economic justice throughout, promising to help lift people from poverty while protecting minority communities that are harmed disproportionately by pollution and the effects of a warming atmosphere. Sanders' proposal claims it will pay for itself over 15 years through a combination of new taxes, fees and litigation against fossil fuels companies, new taxes on corporations and wealthy people, together with cuts in military spending related to U.S. reliance on oil and savings across the economy.

 Bernie Sanders’ GND Plan Will Nationalize Power Generation in the U.S. -  Bernie Sanders recently released his plan for implementing the Green New Deal. These include such comprehensive goals as transitioning to 100% renewable energy for electricity and transportation by 2030 and decarbonizing the entire economy by 2050 (full details here). To get there, Sanders plans a number of ambitious projects, including massive and job-creating infrastucture spending and “declaring climate change a national emergency.” The implications of the latter are not entirely spelled out. A number of candidates have proposals that “declare a national emergency” regarding climate change, but not in the same sense that George W. Bush, for example, may have meant had he declared the 9/11 attacks a national emergency (he didn’t, but he could have).  That kind of national emergency, a Bush-Cheney kind, implies an exercise of presidential power that approaches martial law, something that most pro-climate Democrats don’t contemplate. Does the Sanders plan contemplate a stronger-than-rhetorical response to climate change? It’s not clear yet from Sanders camp messaging. The subject of emergency federal power does comes up though because of the breadth of the Sanders plan, and in particular, because of one key component:

• Build enough renewable energy generation capacity for the nation’s growing needs. Currently, four federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and the Tennessee Valley Authority generate and transmit power to distribution utilities in 33 states.We will create one more PMA to cover the remaining states and territories and expand the existing PMAs to build more than enough wind, solar, energy storage and geothermal power plants. We will spend $1.52 trillion on renewable energy and $852 billion to build energy storage capacity. Together, with an EPA federal renewable energy standard, this will fully drive out non-sustainable generation sources.
• We will end greed in our energy system. The renewable energy generated by the Green New Deal will be publicly owned, managed by the Federal Power Marketing Administrations, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Tennessee Valley Authority and sold to distribution utilities with a preference for public power districts, municipally- and cooperatively-owned utilities with democratic, public ownership, and other existing utilities that demonstrate a commitment to the public interest..

The whole plan (again, I urge everyone to read it) has been called by some a “new Manhattan Project” and likened to FDR’s reshaping of U.S. industrial policy and capacity during World War II. As Juan Cole writes, “Sanders intends to push [fossil fuel] corporations aside and institute a Federal industrial policy that can make things happen. The analogy is what Franklin Delano Roosevelt accomplished during World War II, when US industrial capacity vastly expanded and 16 million men were mobilized and Social Security was implemented.”

Trump skips G7 climate summit with aides claiming scheduling conflict -  As other leaders were taking their seats around a large round table, the chair reserved for Trump sat empty. The summit's host, French President Emmanuel Macron, gaveled the meeting to order anyway and launched into an explanation of a wrist watch made from recycled plastic. Later, the White House said Trump's schedule prevented his attendance. "The President had scheduled meetings and bilaterals with Germany and India, so a senior member of the Administration attended in his stead," press secretary Stephanie Grisham said. But the leaders of both those countries -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi -- were both seen attending, at least for the start of the session. An official said the staffer who replaced Trump worked for the National Security Council. Speaking afterward, Macron seemed to shrug off Trump's absence. "He wasn't in the room, but his team was," Macron said at a news conference. He urged reporters not to read too much into Trump's decision to skip the session, insisting the US is aligned with the rest of the G7 on issues of biodiversity and combating fires in the Amazon rainforest. Still, Macron acknowledged Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord -- a move that angered European nations, who remain part of the pact. Macron said it was no longer his goal to convince Trump to return to the agreement.

Trump Will Not Risk US Energy Wealth for Windmill Dreams-- President Donald Trump said he was not willing to sacrifice the abundant fossil energy wealth of the U.S. on “dreams” such as renewable power. “We’re the No. 1 energy producer in the world,” Trump said Monday in France. “I’m not going to lose that wealth on dreams, on windmills, which, frankly are not working all that well.” Trump made the comments when asked about climate change at the end of a summit of Group of Seven leaders in Biarritz, France, and as fires devastating the Amazon rainforest draw renewed attention to the issue. Trump addressed the issue of climate change by citing surging exports of both crude oil and natural gas -- a frequent refrain for the president, who has celebrated what he calls American “energy dominance.” He also has frequently disparaged wind power, previously suggesting that turbines drive down real estate values, kill birds and, without citing evidence, cause cancer. Energy development has enriched the U.S., Trump said. “We have to maintain this incredible place that we’ve all built,” Trump said Monday. “We’ve become a much richer country, and that’s a good thing, not a bad thing, because that great wealth allows us to take care of people.” He ignored a shouted question about whether he believes in climate change. However, under Trump, the U.S. has balked at sending climate aid to other nations, as part of the Paris agreement, a global pact inked in 2015 to slash greenhouse gas emissions that drive the phenomenon. Trump announced during his first year in office that the U.S. would abandon the accord, negotiated during the administration of Barack Obama.

Trump says windmill power isn't working. His Energy secretary disagrees -President Trump scoffed yet again at a source of electricity championed by his own energy secretary, saying wind power doesn’t work “all that well.”“We’re the No. 1 energy producer in the world,” Trump said at the end of a summit of the Group of 7 in Biarritz, France. “I’m not going to lose that wealth on dreams, on windmills, which, frankly are not working all that well.”The comment, in response to a question about climate change, is the latest in a line of statements from the president disparaging wind power. And yet, the U.S. has added more than 15 gigawatts since he took office in 2017, enough to power half of New York state. The industry, meanwhile, now employs more than 110,000 people.Even Energy Secretary Rick Perry touts the benefits of wind, which supplies about 20% of electricity in his home state of Texas. “America’s wind industry supports more than 100,000 American jobs at over 500 facilities across the country,” Perrytweeted on Aug. 6. “Wind energy is an important part of America’s all-of-the-above energy future.”  Trump has said turbines are “monstrous,” are “killing all the eagles” and cause cancer. His comment Monday came after the Energy Department released a reportfinding employment in the industry has risen to a record 114,000 full-time jobs. It’s also the cheapest new source of electricity in many regions of the U.S. “We think the president is making a political miscalculation in his comments on wind energy,” Tom Kiernan, chief executive of the American Wind Energy Assn., said in a statement.

Sioux Falls landfill tightens rules after Minnesota dumps dozens of wind turbine blades - A wind farm near Albert Lea, Minn., brought dozens of their old turbine blades to the Sioux Falls dump this summer. But City Hall says it won't take anymore unless owners take more steps to make the massive fiberglass pieces less space consuming. The wind energy industry isn't immune to cyclical replacement, with turbine blades needing to be replaced after a decade or two in use. That has wind energy producers looking for places to accept the blades on their turbines that need to be replaced. For at least one wind-farm in south central Minnesota, its found the Sioux Falls Regional Sanitary Landfill to be a suitable facility to take its aged-out turbine blades. This year, 101 turbine blades have been trucked to the city dump. But with each one spanning 120 feet long, that's caused officials with the landfill and the Sioux Falls Public Works Department to study the long-term effect that type of refuse could have on the dump. Public Works Director Mark Cotter couldn't say why a Minnesota wind farm is choosing to truck its blades to Sioux Falls, whether it's rates or regulatory climate. But he told the Argus Leader Tuesday the blades accepted to date have come in three pieces, but they still require a lot of labor to get them ready to be placed in the ground. The out-of-region rate is $64 a ton, and a typical blade weighs between 14 and 19 tons. That's because a portion of each blade is hollow on the inside, requiring landfill crews to compact them by crushing them beneath the weight of 120,000-pound trucks. Still, it's a process that hasn't proven cost effective, even though the out-of-region price for bringing waste to the landfill is nearly double what locals pay. "We can't take any more unless they process them before bringing them to us," Cotter said. "We're using too many resources unloading them, driving over them a couple times and working them into the ground."

 Dow to Deploy Plastics-to-Oil Process-- Dow Inc. is partnering with the Dutch developer of a method for turning plastic trash back into oil as the global chemical powerhouse seeks to expand recycling amid rising alarm over pollution. Fuenix Ecogy Group has created a method for breaking down plastic into a form that can be used in a fresh round of manufacturing. Dow plans to implement the process at its plant in Terneuzen, the Netherlands, and make it a recycling mainstay, the companies said Thursday. Chemical companies are under pressure to address plastic waste that clogs oceans, damaging wildlife and ecosystems around the world. Manufacturers and consumer brands are trying to head off a backlash that’s already eroding demand. Retail and consumer giants including Unilever NV and Walmart Inc. have committed to increase use of recycled plastics, creating an estimated $120 billion market in Canada and the U.S. alone. A lack of cost-effective technology has been one of the biggest obstacles. Transformational TechnologiesAt least 60 companies are working on solutions and need investment to scale up more quickly, according to a report by Closed Loop Partners, an investment firm focused on cutting waste in the economy. The vast majority of the plastic sent out into the world is never recovered, and nearly 90% of such waste ends up in landfills, incinerators, rivers and oceans. Only about 6% of plastics used in the U.S. and Canada are available for recycling, according to the report.

A New Generation of Students Is Teaching Us How to Reduce E-Waste - For a decade, the right to repair movement has been quietly fomenting in technical writing classes at universities around the world.At 80 participating colleges and universities, teachers work with iFixit—a company that provides repair toolkits for many consumer electronics—to train students to repair electronics and help others do the same at a time when device manufacturers are making it more difficult to do just that.In the course of the class, students take electronics apart and put them back together in order to build repair manuals so that people can fix their devices instead of throwing them out. iFixit puts these manuals on their website—tens of thousands, so far—and their advice reaches millions of people.“The education program was born out of a need to give students more hands-on tech education,” said Marty Rippens, who helps run the iFixit Technical Writing Project. “Getting engineering students to think about the longevity of products is a sea change.”Then, iFixit posts the repair manuals on its website for the public to use. The repair guides they produce get traction—1.5 million users a month engage with the guides, Brittany McCrigler, who also helps run the program, said. Students have created more than 30,000 guides on 6,000 consumer products, helping over 60 million people repair their devices. Before they make these guides, students have to understand why so many consumer electronics end up in landfills or burning in incinerators around the world. Why on earth are we wasting so much stuff? The answer to that question largely comes down to the companies making the devices we use everyday. Consumer electronics giants like Apple or Samsung churn out new phones and updates on a monthly basis. However, there’s one thing you’ll seldom find on their websites: a repair manual for your old device. In fact, many device manufacturers go to great lengths to ensure that repairing devices yourself or through a third party is incredibly difficult, and sometimes illegal.  AirPods, for example, can't be repaired because they are glued together; their lithium-ion batteries makes throwing them in the trash a non-starter; they can't be easily recycled, either.

Maryland denies permit, blocking Georgetown-sponsored solar farm that would clear Charles County forest - \Maryland environmental officials have denied a permit application for a solar project proposed on hundreds of acres of forest in Charles County, blocking construction of a controversial Georgetown University-sponsored solar farm. State Environment Secretary Ben Grumbles said the more than 500-acre project could harm water quality and set back progress in improving the health of the Chesapeake Bay. More than 200 acres of trees would have been cleared to make way for the project. “This is an unacceptable trade-off for the environmental benefits of clean energy,” Grumbles said in a statement. Representatives for Origis Energy USA, the company developing the project on behalf of Georgetown, could not immediately be reached for comment. State environmental regulators gave the project close scrutiny, holding a public hearing amid community concern over forest loss. [More news] Man suspected of shooting at officer is fatally shot by Baltimore police; officer, woman injured » Miami-based Origis said it planned the 100,000-panel solar farm in an area of Charles County known as the Nanjemoy peninsula to avoid controversies that have developed in other parts of the state when solar farms have been proposed on top of active farmland. It said much of the forest was immature and of poor quality, something opponents to the project contested. The Chesapeake Bay Foundation applauded the decision, saying forests are invaluable filters for water pollution and are needed to combat climate change. It suggested the project should instead be built on retired farmland, brownfields with a history of environmental contamination, rooftops or parking lots.

Trump Orders Biofuel Boost in Bid to Temper Farm State Anger -- President Donald Trump, seeking to tamp down political fallout in U.S. farm states essential to his re-election, has ordered federal agencies to shift course on relieving some oil refineries of requirements to use biofuel such as corn-based ethanol. Trump and top cabinet leaders decided late Thursday they wouldn’t make changes to just-issued waivers that allow small refineries to ignore the mandates, but agreed to start boosting biofuel-blending quotas to make up for expected exemptions beginning in 2021. The outcome was described by four people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named before a formal announcement could be made. The decision was reached after a flurry of White House meetings this week on the issue, which divides two of Trump’s top political constituencies: rural Americans and the oil industry. With the move, Trump is largely siding with farmers, ethanol producers and political leaders in Iowa that have accused the president of turning his back on the industry. But the administration’s shift risks blowback in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, where blue-collar refinery workers have held rallies to push for relief from U.S. biofuel quotas they say are too expensive. The largest coalition of U.S. building trades unions on Thursday warned Trump that changing course on exemptions would betray the president’s “campaign promise to protect every manufacturing job.” 

Trump promises ethanol-related 'giant package' to please farmers - (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Thursday his administration is planning a “giant package” related to ethanol that would please U.S. farmers angry that many more oil refiners have been freed from obligations to use the corn-based fuel. Clashes between farmers and the oil industry over biofuel policy have posed a challenge for Trump, who is counting on the support of both constituencies in next year’s presidential election. U.S. farmers and ethanol producers have ramped up pressure on Trump over the past few weeks to quickly take steps to boost ethanol demand. The oil industry has struck back, saying such moves would increase costs for refiners and could cost manufacturing jobs. “The Farmers are going to be so happy when they see what we are doing for Ethanol, not even including the E-15, year around, which is already done,” Trump said on Twitter. “It will be a giant package, get ready! At the same time I was able to save the small refineries from certain closing. Great for all!” Trump did not offer details on what the “giant package” would contain. The E15 mentioned by Trump is a higher-ethanol blend of gasoline. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners to blend biofuels like ethanol into their fuel, but allows the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to grant waivers to financially troubled small facilities.

Palm oil: Indonesia and Malaysia push back as EU clamps down-- Asia's two dominant palm oil producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, may be heading for a clash with the European Union in international court over an EU clampdown on the fuel. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, however, is not waiting around for someone else to decide the fate of the industry.On Aug. 12, the president led a cabinet meeting on an urgent topic: biodiesel.Widodo told his ministers that he wants all diesel sold in Indonesia to contain 30% palm oil by next January, versus the current ratio of 20%. "And then later, at the end of 2020, I want it to jump to B50," he said, meaning 50%. In a speech to parliament that week, the president said the ultimate goal is 100%.Raising domestic consumption is more crucial than ever. The European Commission decided last year to completely phase out imports of palm oil for transport fuels by 2030, citing widespread deforestation. Not only is the EU one of the top export markets for both Indonesia and Malaysia, but officials in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur fear relentless campaigning against palm oil could trigger a broader global backlash that would threaten the industry's survival. With global trade upheaval also throwing the market into flux, producers are scurrying to adjust and attempting to rehabilitate palm oil's image.Palm oil is used in everything from margarine, chips, peanut butter and chocolate to shampoo, cosmetics, cleaning products and biofuels. For decades, critics have claimed it is hazardous to health, while conservationists blame expanding plantations and slash-and-burn farming for endangering orangutan populations and the climate. Greenpeace says over 74 million hectares of Indonesian rainforest have been "logged, burned or degraded" in the last half century. Yet Indonesia, which accounted for 56% of global palm oil supply in 2018, and Malaysia, which contributed 28%, claim the EU's real concern is protecting its own rapeseed and sunflower oils.

Indonesia threatens to halt Airbus jet orders over palm oil feud -- Indonesia is pushing its domestic airlines to halt purchase of Airbus SE planes in retaliation for curbs imposed by the European Union on use of palm biodiesel.Indonesia’s Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita is also asking carriers including PT Lion Mentari Airlines to consider switching their outstanding aircraft to Boeing Co. Lukita has spoken to Lion’s co-founder Rusdi Kirana about dumping Airbus and the country’s largest low-cost carrier supports the government move, the minister said in a text message on Thursday.“We are exploring all options,” Lukita said, when asked if the government would order all carriers to switch to Boeing from Airbus. “I have contacted Rusdi, and he said the airline will follow whatever the government decides.”Siva Govindasamy, a Singapore-based spokesman for Airbus, didn’t immediately respond to request for comments.The Indonesian threat to turn its back on Airbus is the fallout of European Union’s decision earlier this year to place stricter limits on palm oil’s use in biofuels on concerns over deforestation. Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of the tropical vegetable oil, last week also threatened to slap retaliatory tariffs on import of dairy products from EU after the bloc imposed anti-subsidy duties on its palm oil biodiesel. The escalation of trade feud may complicate Lion’s plan to turn to the European manufacturer following a dispute with Boeing after the crash of its 737 Max 8 jet last year, which killed 189 people. Flag carrier PT Garuda Indonesia has also said that it may cancel its Boeing Max orders for other models.

Why climate change is so hard to tackle: Our stubborn energy system --To adequately address climate change on the level scientists say we must, the world would need to slash its use of oil, natural gas and coal within 30 years, a Herculean task given our deep dependence. In 1987, 81% of our world’s energy consumption came from oil, natural gas and coal. Thirty years later, it is still 81% — despite the incredible increase in wind and solar energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Global fossil-fuel companies have built powerful political operations to lobby governments to maintain subsidies and oppose big climate policy.  This is starting to change among some oil companies, but it’s an uneven shift, and it's not (yet) fundamentally changing the system they helped build.   But a lot more is driving fossil fuels’ dominance than just corporate influence on government. Oil, natural gas and coal provide immense benefits to society — even though they also have immense environmental costs.

• The chemical makeup of the fuels make them especially good at a lot of things, including industrial processes like making plastics. Renewables or other resources cannot easily replace that (even though big brands, like Legos, are trying).
• "Some sectors, such as transportation and petrochemicals [plastics], almost completely rely on one single fuel, in this case oil,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. Nonetheless, Birol said fossil-fuel consumption subsidies that totaled $400 billion in 2018 are providing an “unfair advantage” to those fuels.

In the world of energy and climate change, people talk about the “energy transition,” the concept that we are moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy. But for now and the next few decades, it’s more of an energy addition.

• Renewable electricity (which is the primary use for wind and solar) is often being added on top of instead of in lieu of fossil fuels, particularly in Asia’s rapidly growing economies.
• Our energy system, particularly electricity, is built on multi-billion dollar infrastructure investments designed to last decades. Replacing them is like changing direction on a jetliner, not a jet ski.
• Because of this dynamic and because our global energy demand keeps rising, our emissions keep growing despite the skyrocketing use of wind and solar energy.
• History shows that energy transitions take many decades and overlap, as Reuters analyst John Kemp wrote in a must-read column late last year. “The United States was still using more fuel wood in the 1910s than it had in the 1840s — even though wood had been clearly overtaken by coal and to a lesser extent petroleum as an energy source.”

 IEA: New coal plants are a "blind spot" in climate change debate -The International Energy Agency (IEA) will analyze the climate change and economic costs of the world’s coal plants in its 2019 world energy outlook, set for release in November, the agency's top official told Axios in a recent interview.  "There is an important problem here," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "The existing infrastructure provides a lifeline to people in developing countries, but at the same time, it’s the single most important driver of global carbon dioxide emissions."

• Today’s coal plants emit more than 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide, which amounts to 1/3 of all energy-related CO2 emissions, Birol said.
• Coal plants in Europe and the United States are around 40 years old, but ones in Asia are far newer — closer to 11 years old — and still produce profits for the companies that operate them.
• Those plants in particular are what Birol calls a “blind spot” in our climate and energy debate, given they are likely to be emitting for decades longer.

IEA’s analysis will include a detailed, plant-level analysis of all the world’s coal plants, looking at what their "continued operation would mean for global emissions, energy security and costs,” an IEA spokesman said. IEA is an intergovernmental organization funded partly by its 30 member countries.

“New cities need to be built…” -- Here’s a piece of idiocy from a thread at another blog, all too typical of one strain of fake “alternative” types:  There will be a lot more building in China….. new cities need to be built…..China will grow well for another 20 years no matter what. Yes, because fossil fuels are infinite, and the biodiversity of the Earth is infinite and can be exterminated forever, and the ecology’s capacity to be devastated is infinite, and the Earth can be murdered forever. And all for the sake of the cancerous “growth” of the lowest vermin ever, materialistic Homo necropolis. By now in the West there’s almost nothing left of humanity but psychopaths like this scribbler. Gaia will not mourn this species, soon to become the apex victim of its own mass extinction campaign. It’s not me saying that destruction, or what psychopaths call “development”, has gone way too far. It’s the Earth saying it. And Gaia will insist on payment of all bills. All their “infrastructure” was raped from the Earth and from peoples who never wanted any part of their vile Christian-scientistic “Dominion”. Including most people in the West itself. And the most open, obvious secret is that it was all for nothing. Modern civilized grinders are the least happy, healthy, whole people who ever have existed. Including and especially the rich. Otherwise why are they such psychopaths who never can reach a point of relaxation and enjoyment of their wealth, but on the contrary must obsess ever more frantically on getting more, and especially on making sure that most people get less and less and less?  And the same dynamic goes for all Western grinders, at any level of the hierarchy. And the same goes for all who ape Western civilization, including all who want drive globalization, and all who drive infinite cancer, aka “growth”. And that’s the Hell they call “heaven” which they wish on everyone.   Thank Gaia that Earth can’t and won’t tolerate this abomination much longer.

Are coal exports to India an opportunity or lost cause? - Clyde Russell  (Reuters) - The Australian government thinks there are opportunities to boost coal exports to India. The Indian government wants to cut imports by half by boosting domestic output. Funny thing is, both could turn out to be correct.  India is already the world’s third-biggest energy consumer and with plans to grow the economy rapidly, it’s likely to move up the ranking in coming years. However, how the world’s second-most populous nation increases its energy demand is not set in stone, and the country looks to be the petri dish of whether renewable energies such as solar and wind can genuinely replace fossil fuel generation. No matter what happens with renewable energy in India, coal is going to stay a major part of the generation mix, given the country has added 123 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity in the past decade, taking the total to more than 200 GW. The rapid build-out of coal generation has led to efforts to boost domestic output, led by state-controlled producer Coal India. While much of the commentary on Coal India focuses on the company’s routine failure to meet ambitious production targets, this clouds the fact that it has actually been quite successful in boosting its output. The world’s largest coal mining company has gone from producing 462 million tonnes in the 2009/10 fiscal year to 607 million tonnes in 2018/19. Coal India only just missed its 610 million tonne target in the last financial year, and its aim for the current 2019/20 year is to reach 660 million tonnes.   This seems like too much of a stretch for one year, but the relevant metric isn’t whether Coal India meets its targets, it’s how close it comes. The company’s chairman, A.K. Jha, said last week the aim is to ramp up output by 50-55 million tonnes annually for the next three years, which would allow for imports to decline. Jha told a conference that India’s total domestic output last fiscal year was 730 million tonnes, but consumption was 965 million, with imports of 235 million filling the gap, the Economic Tomes reported on Aug. 26. “Out of this 115 million tonnes of imports is inevitable since it is coking coal not abundantly available in the country. The rest, around 120 million tonnes, can be replaced by Coal India’s production,” the newspaper quoted Jha as saying. Jha’s comments dovetail with the Indian government’s aim to reduce coal imports by at least a third by the fiscal year ending March 2024.

TVA finds route for power line from Mississippi to Tennessee (AP) — The Tennessee Valley Authority says it has identified a route for a new transmission line that would send power from Mississippi to Tennessee.TVA said Monday that the proposed power line would begin at the existing Allen Fossil Plant in Horn Lake, near the Tennessee and Mississippi line. The line would extend to a substation in Memphis.The utility said the line will increase power reliability in the Memphis area.TVA says it will take public input and evaluate environmental effects of the project. TVA will deal with property owners for access to their property for the line’s construction and maintenance.

The toxic waste threat that climate change is making worse -  More than 100 storage sites for coal-burning power plants’ toxic leftovers lie in areas that federal emergency managers have labeled a high risk for flooding, according to POLITICO’s examination of government and industry data. That finding comes as scientists and pollution experts warn that coal ash — a multibillion-dollar liability problem for communities across the country — may become an even greater danger because of heavier rains triggered by climate change. Already, federal agencies warn that the government’s flood maps most likely understate the risks of deluges in much of the country, including the Southeast, where at least 42 storage sites in POLITICO’s analysis are located. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is moving to weaken an Obama-era regulation meant to prevent a repeat of past coal ash disasters. The ash, left behind when coal is burned for power generation, contains arsenic, selenium, lead, mercury, boron and other contaminants known to cause cancer, neurological damage or heart ailments. Electric utilities usually store it in massive landfills or unlined ponds that are at a risk of spilling when nearby lakes and rivers flood — as happened in a $1.2 billion disaster that damaged dozens of homes in Tennessee in 2008, as well as two breaches that fouled a river and lake in North Carolina last year after Hurricane Florence. In addition to the increased risk of spills, scientists say the heavier rains expected to come from a warming planet also threaten to bring a more hidden peril — rising water tables that seep into the ash impoundments, contaminating groundwater used for agriculture and drinking. The dangers make it urgent for power companies to move faster to remove the coal ash deposits from harm's way, pollution experts say. “If they don’t clean them up, they’re going to be there forever,” said Peter Goode, a former chief engineer for the Missouri Department of Natural Resources water pollution control program. “Thirty years from now, who knows what the flooding events are going to look like and what the rainfall events are going to look like?”

Sick and dying workers demand help after cleaning coal ash (AP) — The Tennessee Valley Authority, long respected for providing good jobs and cheap electricity, is facing a growing backlash over its handling of a massive coal ash spill a decade ago, with potentially serious consequences for an industry often opposed to environmental regulation. A jury in Knoxville decided within hours that the TVA’s contractor, Jacobs Engineering, breached its safety duties, exposing hundreds of cleanup workers to airborne “fly ash” with known carcinogens. The jurors said Jacobs’ actions were capable of making the workers sick. The key question of whether they caused each worker’s injuries was left for a different jury in a second phase of the civil trial. More than 200 workers blame the contractor for exposing them to ash they say caused a slew of illnesses, some fatal, including cancers of the lung, brain, blood and skin. Despite last November’s favorable verdict for the first 72 plaintiffs, they won’t get monetary damages unless they can prove exactly what caused their specific illnesses. The judge, alluding to their urgent need for medical care, ordered mediation. More than a hundred other plaintiffs await the outcome. “To have the burden put on you, that you have to prove what caused these horrific things -- that’s an atrocity,” said Janie Clark, whose husband, Ansol, has a rare blood cancer after driving a fuel truck at the site. “I guess that’s just the law.”

Attorney for 9/11 first responders Marc Bern joins TVA coal ash suit - The New York attorney who helped win money for first responders who were exposed to toxic dust from the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center is now targeting the Tennessee Valley Authority and one of its contractors over coal ash exposure.  Marc Bern, a kingpin among lawyers specializing in mass injury litigation, has signed onto a lawsuit filed against TVA and contractor Jacobs Engineering Inc. earlier this year. The lawsuit was filed on behalf of leaders in Roane County and two cities within its borders, Kingston and Harriman.  The lawsuit, initially filed by Knoxville attorneys Jim Scott, Keith Stewart and J. Tyler Roper, accuses TVA and Jacobs of misleading government leaders and Roane County residents about the toxicity of the 7.3 million tons of coal ash that spilled from a busted dike at TVA’s Kingston coal-fired power plant in 2008. TVA and Jacobs insisted in repeated public statements after the spill — the nation’s largest human-created environmental disaster ever — that coal ash was no more dangerous than dirt. “Unfortunately, because the defendants, TVA and Jacobs, have not stepped up to do the right thing, the cases could go on for years," Bern said. "You’re going to have more people die or get debilitating illnesses."   Roane County leaders already had taken a financial handout from TVA, to the tune of $43 million, for “economic development” in the wake of the spill. And TVA shelled out $27.8 million to settle spill-related property damage claims by residents living near the spill site. But with the ink still wet on TVA’s checks and its cleanup operation, headed by Jacobs, still underway, workers at the Kingston disaster site began complaining of sicknesses and asking questions about the coal ash they were being exposed to without respiratory protection for their lungs and coveralls for their bodies. A handful of those workers filed suit in U.S. District Court in 2013 against Jacobs, alleging the firm’s safety managers falsely told them coal ash was safe enough to eat, denied them adequate protective gear, threatened to fire them if they insisted on respiratory masks, destroyed dust masks to keep workers from wearing them and tampered with threat level testing.

Bankrupt coal operator gets OK to end 401(k) plan --  Sponsors of the Blackjewel LLC 401(k) Plan, Milton, W.Va., received permission from a bankruptcy court to terminate the plan, which has an estimated $26 million in assets.Participants were notified Aug. 9 by Blackjewel that they can choose to receive a cash distribution or roll over the balance to a qualified plan. The plan custodian is American Funds and the third-party administrator is Benefits Plans Services Inc. Choices must be made by Sept. 13.Coal operator Blackjewel filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on July 1. On Aug. 6, U.S. District Judge Frank Volk for the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of West Virginia in Charleston, who also cleared the plan termination, approved the sale of three Blackjewel mines to Contura Energy Inc. The sale must be approved by the federal government.Contura Energy is the stalking horse purchaser of Blackjewel LLC and Blackjewel Holdings LLC assets, including the Belle Ayr and Eagle Butte thermal coal mines in the Powder River Basin in Campbell County, Wyo., and the Pax Surface mine in Fayette County, W.Va.In a July 25 statement about the proposed purchase, Contura said it will try to hire the majority of the displaced Wyoming employees and resume normal mining operations but employment decisions about the West Virginia mine "will be determined based on development plans if and once the mine is acquired."

Blackjewel seeks court order to move disputed coal train -As angry coal miners continued to block a set of railroad tracks in Harlan County Friday, the miners’ former employer, Blackjewel LLC., sought a court order to let a disputed coal train pass through the blockade.Frank Volk, a judge in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of West Virginia, did not make a final ruling on that request, but asked for another hearing within 10 to 14 days to continue the discussion.Upset over not being paid for more than three weeks of work, a small group of miners stood on the tracks and blocked the train last month as it hauled coal from a Blackjewel mine. The company failed to pay hundreds of Kentucky miners as it declared bankruptcy more than a month ago. Some former Blackjewel miners have said they’re owed thousands of dollars and have struggled to make ends meet in the weeks following the bankruptcy.

Blackjewel, federal government at odds over halting coal - A federal district court judge issued a temporary restraining order Friday afternoon to prevent bankrupt coal producer Blackjewel LLC and a marketing company from moving thousands of tons of coal in Southwest Virginia that U.S. Department of Labor officials say were produced by unpaid employees in violation of the law.The federal government and Blackjewel are at odds over whether an existing halt can be lifted on coal at sites in Raven, Honaker and Appalachia, Virginia. The order, issued by James Jones, a U.S. District Court judge in Abingdon, comes as Blackjewel’s bankruptcy proceedings play out in a separate federal court in West Virginia.The halted coal was the focus of a hearing in a Charleston, West Virginia, courtroom Friday morning, before Jones issued his order. Bankruptcy judge Frank Volk ordered the scheduling of an evidentiary hearing related to questions surrounding the halted coal within the next 10-14 days. Jones took that into account for his district court ruling later in the day, setting the temporary restraining order to expire at the conclusion of the bankruptcy court’s evidentiary hearing, the date of which was not immediately available . Blackjewel attorneys argue that the company that purchased the coal should be able to take ownership of it before it degrades from oxidation, while the Department of Labor asked the district court in Virginia this week for a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction to prevent any movement of the coal.

Evidentiary hearing ordered in case of Blackjewel mining labor dispute -- A judge has ordered an evidentiary hearing in the case of the striking Eastern Kentucky coal miners within two weeks.Lawyers for Blackjewel and the U.S. Labor Department were in court in Charleston, West Virginia, Friday.Miners for the Blackjewel mining company have not been paid for weeks-worth of work after the company filed for bankruptcy on July 1. Miners in Harlan County are sitting on train tracks to block the coal they mined from going anywhere until they are paid. Wages totaling $2.6 million are owed.

No KY coal company has posted bond to protect miner wages -- Not a single coal company formed in Kentucky within the past five years has posted a bond required by state law to protect miners’ wages if the company suddenly shuts down, according to records obtained by the Lexington Herald-Leader. In addition, officials in Gov. Mat Bevin’s administration urged lawmakers last year to pass a bill that would have eliminated the requirement.The bill did not get a vote in the House of Representatives, but critics say the Kentucky Labor Cabinet’s support of the measure raises questions about its failure to ensure a bond was posted by Blackjewel LLC, which left hundreds of Kentucky miners with cold checks last month when it declared bankruptcy with no advance notice. In the weeks after Blackjewel filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the Herald-Leader reported the company appeared to be in violation of a law requiring it to post a performance bond to protect wages. The violation allowed the company to close its mines without paying employees for three weeks of work.KRS 337.200 requires “every employer engaged in construction work, or the severance, preparation, or transportation of minerals” that has continuously operated in Kentucky for less than five years to post a performance bond with the Labor Cabinet to cover its payroll for four weeks. If the company suddenly shuts down, the money could be used to pay employees. Many Kentucky coal companies are exempt from the law because they’ve continuously operated in Kentucky longer than five years, but the Herald-Leader identified a handful that appear to meet the requirements for posting a bond. On Thursday afternoon, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear released a report identifying 30 companies that may be in violation of the law. Altogether, the 30 companies employ 932 people.

Blackjewel left coal miners without pay. Now it might leave Appalachia thousands of acres of land to clean up. The Revelation and Blackjewel bankruptcies put nearly 1,700 miners out of work across Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The companies owe $11.8 million in back pay and benefits to miners in central Appalachia, according to Ohio Valley ReSource. But those costs pale in comparison to the more than half a billion dollars Blackjewel owes for other debts, according to its bankruptcy filing, including significant environmental and employee obligations. Surface mining, a type of mining that Blackjewel and other coal companies use, has degraded land and water in Appalachia, causing erosion and landslides, floods, and water contamination. Without reclamation, sites are more of an environmental and economic risk. The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) of 1977 set rules for restoring surface-mined land through a process called reclamation, which consists of rebuilding ridges destroyed by explosives, remediating soil, planting new trees and vegetation, and ensuring that land can be used for other purposes. As the coal industry has declined over the last decade, companies have used loopholes in SMCRA to avoid reclamation obligations, and some state agencies have not adequately enforced the law. Alpha and other companies dumped unproductive mines and responsibilities on companies that bought them after bankruptcy, postponing cleanup for months, years, or even decades. Many of the mines at stake in Blackjewel’s bankruptcy produce little coal, are lying idle, or are in various stages of reclamation. Advocates, industry experts, and former regulators say this cycle — mine, declare bankruptcy, and sell — threatens the system designed to ensure mines are reclaimed, and that central Appalachia could see a new round of mine abandonment that could cause more environmental, economic, and health problems. “There are parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky — the state with the most abandoned mine lands in the country — that were mined 50, 100, 150 years ago, and still have not been reclaimed,” said Joe Pizarchik, director of the federal Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement (OSMRE) under former President Barack Obama. “Those areas have still not recovered. The coal’s gone, there’s no jobs, there’s nothing.”

Navajo Company, Now Big Coal Player, Must Prep Cleanup Bond Plan --Coal industry watchers and environmentalists are asking questions about Navajo Transitional Energy Company’s purchase of bankrupt Cloud Peak Energy Inc.'s coal mines in Wyoming and Montana, particularly how it will pay for eventual mine cleanup. NTEC, a stand-alone business authorized by the Navajo Nation to negotiate on its behalf, bought the Antelope, Spring Creek, and Cordero Rojo mines, which occupy some 90,000 acres. The Aug. 19 purchase would make NTEC the nation’s third-biggest coal producer, trailing Peabody Energy and Arch Coal. NTEC now needs to meet state bonding requirements for cleanup when the mines are no longer operational. Bonding is designed to have companies arrange to cover those costs so taxpayers aren’t on the hook if a mine site is abandoned. Shannon Anderson, staff attorney with the Powder River Basin Resource Council in Sheridan, Wyo., said the group will be watching to make sure the state’s reclamation bonding requirements are met. “They’re a tribal entity, so there are special rules and regulations, and even loopholes, that apply to them,” she said. Tribes have used sovereign immunity to avoid certain requirements, she said.NTEC had sovereign immunity in a case decided July 29 by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit over challenges to the company’s plans to reauthorize coal mining activity at a 33,000-acre strip mine on Navajo Nation land in New Mexico.Because of the tribe’s sovereignty, the court tossed out a lawsuit by environmental groups alleging violations of the Endangered Species Act and National Environmental Policy Act.

Western Coal Takes Another Hit as Appeals Court Rules Against Export Terminal - A Washington state appeals court has ruled against a company that wants to build the largest coal export terminal in the country on the Columbia River. The decision could be a fatal blow for a controversial project that could have increased global greenhouse gas emissions.Western states with coal mining operations have been pushing for an export terminal that would allow them to send their coal by rail to the coast and then ship it to China.A coal terminal was proposed on the banks of the Columbia River in Longview, Washington, but the state opposed it on several grounds. State officials rejected a water quality permit under the Clean Water Act, pointing to a long list of environmental harms, including air pollution from the coal trains. They also rejected a plan to sublease state-owned land for the coal terminal, citing concerns about the company's finances and reputation, including that it had misrepresented just how much coal it planned to ship. The appeals court ruled on the state's rejection of the sublease on Tuesday, saying the Department of Natural Resources had acted reasonably given the circumstances. "It's yet another nail in the coffin of a project that faces legal, market and financial challenges," said Clark Williams-Derry, director of energy finance for the Sightline Institute, an environmental think tank based in Seattle. "If this were built, it would be a massive increase in the emissions attributable to economic activity in Washington state. We are closing our own coal fired power plant within six years, the notion that at the same time we would be enabling the construction of others around the globe doesn't make climate sense." Kristin Gaines, Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs for Millennium Bulk Terminals-Longview, the company behind the proposed project, said the company would continue to fight for the project.

How Oyster Creek 'super predator' changed climate all by itself- For five decades the Oyster Creek Generating Station acted as a "super predator" on the sandy, pine tree shores of Barnegat Bay. That's at least Rutgers research professor Tom Grothues' nickname for the nuclear power plant, which opened in 1969 and was shut down last September. Grothues theorizes the plant altered the area's climate and food chain by sucking in billions of gallons of bay water and spewing out hot water. In the process, it cooked untold numbers of fish and crab larvae.Its shutdown offers a startling, but unique opportunity to understand the effects of climate change, he said. "We've already noticed pronounced physical changes," Grothues said. "The water is much cooler. The water is not flowing as fast. That also is potentially changing the salinity." Grothues and a small team of Rutgers technicians spent a recent humid morning doing trawl surveys in the shadow of the plant, sampling the fish life in hopes of gauging the nuclear plant's impact on the creek.    People who live by Oyster Creek said the creek did something last winter it hasn't done in 50 years. It froze.   Oyster Creek was the nation's oldest nuclear power plant. It used a once-through cooling system, where it pumped water from Forked River through a heat exchange and then discharged warmer water back into Oyster Creek.   The two waterways are tributaries on the western shore of the bay and circle the plant like a horseshoe.   While the plant operated, it drew 1.4 billion gallons of water a day from Forked River to cool down its reactors. In that water were countless amounts of fish and crab larvae that got "cooked all the way through," said Grothues."We know larvae die naturally at a high rate but even a very, very tiny percentage increase in the survivors could lead to a doubling" of a fish a population, Grothues said.   About 99 percent of larvae die naturally. He said the plant killed 99.9 percent of the larvae with which it interacted.    The plant also discharged water that was 10 degrees Celsius warmer than bay water into Oyster Creek, creating a hot plume that attracted fish, especially in the winter, which Grothues said would have migrated out.

Entergy Completes Sale of Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station to Holtec - – Entergy Corporation today completed the sale of the subsidiary that owns the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station to a Holtec International subsidiary, which plans to complete major decommissioning activities at the site decades sooner than if Entergy had continued to own the facility. Pilgrim was shut down permanently by Entergy on May 31, 2019, after providing electricity safely to the region for more than 46 years. Entergy and Holtec announced the Pilgrim sale agreement in August 2018, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the transfer of Pilgrim’s licenses to Holtec on Aug. 22, 2019. In its order, the NRC found that Holtec possesses the required technical and financial qualifications to own and decommission Pilgrim safely and in accordance with all NRC requirements. “The successful Pilgrim transaction demonstrates continued progress on Entergy’s exit from merchant power markets,” said Entergy Chairman and CEO Leo Denault. “With our previously-announced signed agreements for the post-shutdown sales of Indian Point and Palisades nuclear power plants in 2021 and 2022, respectively, we remain on track to accomplish our exit plan.”

Russia launches floating nuclear power plant amid new “scramble for the Arctic” - Last Friday, Russia launched a floating nuclear power plant, the Akademik Lomonosov, in the Arctic Sea from its port in Murmansk. The vessel is supposed to bring electric power to settlements and companies that are extracting hydrocarbons and precious stones in the Chukotka area. The 144-meter (472-feet)-long platform is equipped with two KLT-40 nuclear reactors that are designed to generate power for up to 100,000 people living in the Chukotka region and companies operating there to extract raw material resources. It will first cross some 5,000 kilometers along the Arctic coast to Chukotka, where it will begin pumping out electricity offshore. The launching of the Akademik Lomonosov platform is part of efforts by the Kremlin to significantly bolster its infrastructure in the region, including by electrifying it, building ports, and further expanding its icebreaker fleet. It is the first time a floating nuclear power plant has been deployed since the US maintained one in the Panama Canal in the 1960s. Two Chinese state-backed companies are now also pursuing plans for at least 20 floating nuclear plants. American scientists are also reported to be working on similar projects. The Akademik Lomonosov has been criticized as a “floating Chernobyl” by the environmental group Greenpeace—referring to the 1987 nuclear disaster at Chernobyl—and a “nuclear Titanic.” Fears about a nuclear accident are also running high because the launching of the Akademik Lomonosov comes just weeks after two significant military accidents in the region. In July, a fire on the nuclear submarine Losharik in the Arctic Barents Sea claimed the lives of 14 high-ranking Russian navy officers. A leading navy officer ominously stated at their funeral that they had averted a “planetary catastrophe.” Then, in August, an accident occurred at a nuclear facility near the northern Russian town of Nyonoksa. Seven people, among them five nuclear scientists, were killed, and radiation that was up to 16 times higher than average was released. The cause for the accident is widely believed to have been a nuclear-powered missile test gone awry. In both cases, the Kremlin was engaged in an attempt to cover up the scale of the accidents.

The Media’s Russian Radiation Story Implodes Upon Scrutiny - On August 8, a joint team from the Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Research Institute of Experimental Physics, subordinated to the State Atomic Energy Corporation (ROSATOM), conducted a test of a liquid-fueled rocket engine, in which electric power from Cesium-137 “nuclear batteries” maintained its equilibrium state. The test was conducted at the Nenoksa State Central Marine Test Site (GTsMP), a secret Russian naval facility known as Military Unit 09703. It took place in the waters of the White Sea, off the coast of the Nenoksa facility, onboard a pair of pontoon platforms. Vyasheslav Yanovsky, considered to be one of Russia’s most senior nuclear scientists, monitored events onboard the off-shore platform. Joining Yanovsky were seven other specialists from the institute, including Vyacheslav Lipshev, the head of the research and development team. They accompanied representatives from the Ministry of Defense, along with specialists from the design bureau responsible for the liquid-fuel engine. When the actual testing finished, something went very wrong. According to a sailor from the nearby Severdvinsk naval base, the hypergolic fuels contained in the liquid engine (their presence suggests that temperature control was one of the functions being tested) somehow combined. This created an explosion that destroyed the liquid engine, sending an unknown amount of fuel and oxidizer into the water. At least one, and perhaps more, of the Cesium-137 RTGs burst open, contaminating equipment and personnel alike. Four men—two Ministry of Defense personnel and two ROSATOM scientists—were killed immediately. Those who remained on the damaged platform weretaken to the Nenoksa base and decontaminated, before being transported to a local military clinic that specializes in nuclear-related emergencies. Here, doctors in full protective gear oversaw their treatment and additional decontamination. All of them survived. Three of the ROSATOM scientists were thrown by the explosion into the waters of the White Sea and were rescued only after a lengthy search. These men were transported to the Arkhangelsk hospital. Neither the paramedics who attended to the injured scientists, nor the hospital staff who received them, were informed that the victims had been exposed to Cesium-137, leading to the cross-contamination of the hospital staff and its premises.  The next day, all the personnel injured during the test were transported to Moscow for treatment at a facility that specializes in radiation exposure; two of the victims pulled from the water died en route. Medical personnel involved in treating the victims were likewise dispatched to Moscow for evaluation; one doctor was found to be contaminated with Cesium-137. The reality of what happened at Nenoksa is tragic. Seven men lost their lives and scores of others were injured. But there was no explosion of a “nuclear cruise missile,” and it wasn’t the second coming of Chernobyl. America’s intelligence community and the so-called experts got it wrong — again. The root cause of their error is their institutional bias against Russia, which leads them to view that country in the worst possible light, regardless of the facts.

Nuclear winter would threaten nearly everyone on Earth -If the United States and Russia waged an all-out nuclear war, much of the land in the Northern Hemisphere would be below freezing in the summertime, with the growing season slashed by nearly 90 percent in some areas, according to a Rutgers-led study.Indeed, death by famine would threaten nearly all of the Earth's 7.7 billion people, said co-author Alan Robock, a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. The study in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres provides more evidence to support The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons passed by the United Nations two years ago, Robock said. Twenty-five nations have ratified the treaty so far, not including the United States, and it would take effect when the number hits 50.

Misguided nuclear bailout has cost the Valley dearly - The disheartening news last week that Clean Energy Future has put the kabosh on plans to construct a third $900 million natural-gas power plant in the Mahoning Valley should come as no great surprise to any informed citizen. If fact, Bill Siderewicz, president of Massachusetts-based CEF, warned as much before last month’s misguided passage of Ohio House Bill 6 in the state’s General Assembly. The hotly controversial bill will now funnel about $1 billion to bail out two aging nuclear power plants at Perry near Cleveland and Davis Besse near Toledo. Siderewicz, this newspaper and many other consumer and environmental organizations in the state recognized the short-term folly and long-term harm of HB6 and fervently advocated its rejection this spring and summer. But unfortunately, the regulation-despising Republican-controlled state Legislature cozied up to financially struggling First Energy Solutions, the power-plant subsidiary of First Energy Corp. of Akron, by voting for the bailout. (In the Mahoning Valley delegation, only state Rep. Don Manning, R-New Middletown, supported it). That relationship, consummated in final passage of the shortsighted bailout bill on July 23, comes with exorbitant and unwarranted costs to the Mahoning Valley and to the entire Buckeye State. The most tangible and immediate cost to the Valley, of course, is the loss of the progressive clean-energy plant in Lordstown that would have included hundreds of well-paid construction and skilled-trade jobs and millions of long-term tax dollars to schools and local governments. All tolled, Siderewicz had estimated a $29 billion loss of economic benefits to the Valley over the next five decades.

FirstEnergy Solutions behind argument against Ohio nuclear subsidy referendum -   A public records request confirms that FirstEnergy’s bankrupt generation subsidiary, FirstEnergy Solutions, is behind a tax argument being advanced to block a referendum on an Ohio bill granting subsidies to nuclear and coal plants. Ohio lawmakers passed the nuclear and coal subsidy bill on July 23 despite widespread opposition from environmental groups, consumer advocates, renewable energy industry interests, petroleum industry interests, free market advocates and others. Six days later, a coalition of some of those interests filed its first proposed referendum against the bill, with an eye toward getting it on the ballot for November 2020.  Two days later, attorney John Zeiger of Columbus sent a letter and legal memorandum to the Ohio secretary of state’s office, arguing that House Bill 6 is a “law providing for a tax levy” that would be exempt from the state constitution’s referendum procedures. Neither that Aug. 1 letter nor the accompanying memorandum identified any client on whose behalf Zeiger and his firm were working. However, a July 17 filingin FirstEnergy Solutions’ bankruptcy case confirms that the company engaged Zeiger’s firm “in the ordinary course of their business since approximately June 26.” Zeiger’s declaration said the firm had agreed to provide “litigation services and, if necessary, litigation services regarding pending legislation.” After the Ohio attorney general’s Aug. 12 rejection of the proposed referendum’s summary of the bill, the Energy News Network submitted a public records request to that office. The response included an Aug. 2 letter from Zeiger to Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost, repeating the tax levy claim, outlining alleged problems with the coalition’s summary of HB 6, and this time identifying FirstEnergy Solutions as his client. House Bill 6 will impose fees on all electricity customers to support subsidies to FirstEnergy Solutions’ Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear stations, as well as two 1950s-era coal-fired power plants. At the same time, it effectively guts Ohio’s renewable energy and energy efficiency standards, which together have been shown to save customers money while adding jobs and attracting investment to the state. FirstEnergy’s generation subsidiary had repeatedly stated that it would close its two nuclear plants in Ohio if state lawmakers didn’t approve the subsidies in HB 6.

Ad invokes spurious Chinese invasion of Ohio to try to head off HB 6 referendum: editorial - cleveland.com --What can nearly $1 million buy? For one, the sleaziest scare ad in recent memory in Ohio, seeking to keep a referendum off the November 2020 ballot on whether to overturn House Bill 6, the recently passed bailout bill for FirstEnergy’s two nuclear plants.The one-minute ad, populated by alarming pictures of the Chinese military, warns, “The Chinese government is quietly invading our American electrical grid” and “coming for our energy jobs” via “a special interest group" about to start collecting signatures for the referendum -- a special interest group the ad warns is "boosting Chinese financial interests” and “risking our national security.”  The ad then urges Ohioans, if they’re asked to sign the referendum petitions, to, “Tell them no. ... Don’t sign the petition allowing China to control Ohio’s power.” No matter that Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts -- the anti-HB 6 group seeking to force a referendum -- still hasn’t gotten its petition language approved. As cleveland.com’s Jeremy Pelzer reports, this could be just the opening salvo in a likely spending spree to protect the nuclear bailout, should the issue get on the ballot. But what is the evidence to support the ad’s alarmist rhetoric about a Chinese invasion?Not much.Ohioans for Energy Security, the group behind the ads, cites the fact that Ohio natural gas plants built or being built by entrepreneur Bill Siderewicz -- one of those behind the anti-HB-6 referendum effort -- have Chinese investment money (yes, along with private U.S., British, and French money and equity from Australian and Germany firms, as well).That’s not exactly the same as an invasion. Certainly, Siderewicz’s projects and his investors’ interests are on the line; after HB 6 passed, he announced that his Massachusetts firm, Clean Energy Future, was ending plans for a third natural gas plant in Lordstown -- an investment the city and its schools were counting on. But why not attack the possible referendum on the merits of HB 6 -- a rescue of Ohio’s no-carbon-emitting nuclear plants -- instead of trying to scare the heck out of Ohioans?

Scant evidence for Chinese threat claimed in nuke bailout backers' ad - An ominous ad suggesting that China is trying to take over Ohio power generation and meddle in Ohio elections is hitting the airwaves across the state. But the group behind the commercial offered no evidence that such a plot exists.“Ohio Power” is a minute-long spot decrying the effort to repeal House Bill 6 — a $150-million-a-year ratepayer bailout of FirstEnergy Solutions’ Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants in northern Ohio. It’s goal is to persuade Ohio voters to avoid signing petition forms required to get a proposed repeal on the ballot.  The ad is part of a $724,000 buy on broadcast television, $316,000 on cable and $117,000 on radio, according to Columbus-based Medium Buying. It opens with a car on an assembly line, then an empty warehouse and then a row of fluorescent lights being turned off. That’s followed by a long shot of a Chinese government building, a shot of Chinese President Xi Jinping holding up a triumphal fist, ranks of Chinese officials applauding him and then close shots of Ohioans with somber faces as a narrator says that the Chinese are taking Ohio money and jobs and risking America’s national security. Then more shots of Xi, Chinese flags and officials followed by black-and-white photos of faceless petition circulators. The ad closes with color video of more somber Ohioans and then an empty warehouse. SCRIPT: “They took our manufacturing jobs. They shuttered our factories. Now, they’re coming for our energy jobs. The Chinese government is quietly invading our American electric grid... intertwining themselves financially in our energy infrastructure. Now, a special interest group... boosting Chinese financial interest... is targeting Ohio’s energy... taking Ohio money... exporting Ohio jobs... even risking our national security. They’re meddling in our elections. “In the coming weeks, you may be approached on the street or at your door to sign a petition to defund U.S. jobs and energy. They will ask for your name... your address... your signature. Tell them ‘no.’ Don’t sign your name to a plan that kills Ohio jobs, harms Ohio communities, and endangers our energy independence. China turned off the power on Ohio manufacturing... don’t let them do it to you. Don’t sign the petition allowing China to control Ohio’s power.” The over-the-top spot is an opening salvo in the next phase of the war over a bailout worth almost $1.2 billion over six years. Carlo LoParo, spokesman for the pro-bailout group Ohioans for Energy Security, said Tuesday that if the group fighting the bailout is successful in getting an initiative that could reverse it onto the 2020 ballot, it’s “very likely” that the nuclear plants will close.

Who’s behind Ohioans for Energy Security’s ad campaign to scare voters? -  Ohioans for Energy Security, a new entity blanketing Ohio with a wave of television ads defending the bailout of FirstEnergy Solutions, is brought to you by the same people who campaigned for the controversial bailout plan. The group formed last month in Ohio as a for-profit Limited Liability Corporation. It just launched a$1 million ad campaign designed to scare voters away from signing petitions to place a referendum on House Bill 6 on the 2020 ballot. The bill in question, passed by the Ohio General Assembly and signed by Governor Mike DeWine in July, will force Ohio consumers to pay to bail out uncompetitive nuclear and coal plants in Ohio. It also rolls back Ohio’s life-and-money savingclean energy standards, which helped to support 112,000 jobs in the Buckeye State.Ohioans for Energy Security points to several reports that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has been among the banks that financed several new gas projects in Ohio developed by Clean Energy Future, a company that opposed HB 6. The Columbus Dispatch reviewed those reports and concluded that “the group behind the commercial offered no evidence that such a plot exists.” It didn’t find “any evidence that the Chinese government intends to play a role in the possible repeal of House Bill 6.”The Cleveland Scene writes that the group’s “bonkers” first ad “continues with even less tenuous grasps on the issues surrounding HB 6.” Ohioans for Energy Security doesn’t mention that the broad-based opposition to HB 6 includes consumer advocates, environmentalists, free market groups, health experts, and manufacturers, as a quick review of opponent testimony on the bill will show.  The pro-bailout group also doesn’t mention Securities and Exchange Commission filings that show the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has committed many millions of dollars to FirstEnergy Corp., the parent company that spawned FES.

Editorial: Early start to HB 6 ad wars portends misinformation to come -- The Columbus Dispatch - Brace yourselves, Ohio, for another whole holler-fest around House Bill 6, the recently passed law using Ohioans’ electric bills to bail out two nuclear power plants plus a couple of coal plants. It also will boost a few specific solar-energy projects but otherwise decimate clean-energy development in the state. Unsurprisingly, the law has enough opposition that a campaign was mounted quickly to subject it to a ballot referendum. Equally unsurprisingly, HB 6 backers plan to fight the referendum effort.  If the law’s opponents succeed in getting the 265,774 valid petition signatures they need by Oct. 21 to put the issue on the November 2020 ballot, we can all expect a hard-fought campaign with a barrage of ads like those we saw while the General Assembly was debating the bill. Obnoxious ad wars are standard for high-profile ballot issues. In this case, though, those who want to see the bailout bill survive aren’t even waiting for an election campaign; they’re spending money to keep an election from happening. A new group called Ohioans for Energy Security is running an ad urging people not to sign the referendum petition. The ad is a masterpiece of misdirection, casting the referendum effort as an attempt by the Chinese government to take over Ohioans’ electric power. “They took our manufacturing jobs. They shuttered our factories,” the classic ominous campaign-ad voice intones. “Now, they’re coming for our energy jobs.” Random scenes of Chinese officials and ceremonies and you-should-be-scared music as from a suspense-film trailer complete the effect. It’s silly enough to be a parody of political ads, but unfortunately it reflects the state of public debate on this issue.

Proposed anti-House Bill 6 referendum clears initial hurdle - cleveland.com - Efforts to hold a statewide referendum to overturn Ohio’s newly passed nuclear power plant bailout law moved a step closer to reality Thursday, as Attorney General Dave Yost announced he has approved supporters’ ballot summary language. According to usual practice, Yost, a Columbus-area Republican, didn’t weigh in on whether he supports or opposes the measure. If Secretary of State Frank LaRose certifies an initial batch of 1,000 signatures collected from registered voters favoring the referendum, that means backers of the effort will have the green light to start collecting the 265,774 petition signatures by Oct. 21 needed for the referendum on House Bill 6 to appear on the November 2020 ballot.  Earlier this month, Yost rejected proposed ballot summary language – a succinct explanation of the proposal provided to voters asked to sign a petition supporting the measure – submitted by Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, the group seeking the referendum. The AG cited 21 errors he found in the proposed language, including inaccurate definitions of terms and misstating the size of energy projects that are eligible for a property tax exemption. HB6, signed by Gov. Mike DeWine last month, offers a $150 million-per-year bailout to Ohio’s Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants, both of which are owned by FirstEnergy Solutions. The bill also eviscerates the state’s renewable-energy and energy-efficiency standards for utilities (which ratepayers currently pay a surcharge to fund), creates publicly funded subsidies to the Ohio Valley Electric Corporation to shore up its coal-fired power plants in Ohio and Indiana, and gives $20 million per year to six solar plant projects.

Judge orders Niles natural gas provider to cease offering new service ‘immediately’ - Judge Peter Kontos of Trumbull County Common Pleas Court approved a preliminary injunction Thursday ordering the Niles-based natural-gas provider One Source Energy to “immediately” stop offering new service to customers. It currently serves about 118 customers in the Southington area. The order came after the Ohio Attorney General’s office filed a request Aug. 22 for a temporary restraining order and “further order” asking for such action. It also followed a hearing Thursday morning before Judge Kontos. The attorney general was working on behalf of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The attorney general’s filing says One Source continues to operate despite never having PUCO authorization to do so and continues to solicit new customers “in direct violation of a Commission directive.”

Eight Permits Issued for Utica/Point Pleasant Shale – The Ohio Department of Natural Resources issued eight permits for horizontal well drilling in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale play for the week ended Aug. 24, the agency reports. Ascent Utica Resources was granted four permits in Jefferson County, while EAP Ohio LLC was awarded three permits for wells in Harrison County. XTO Energy LLC was granted one permit in Belmont County.The ODNR reported 16 rigs in operation across the state.As of Aug. 24, the agency has awarded 3,148 drilling permits for the Utica/Point Pleasant shale play, the most lucrative area for natural gas production in the state. Of those permits, 2,678 wells had been drilled and 2,240 were in production.  No permits were issued in Mahoning, Trumbull or Columbiana counties, nor were any issued by the Pennsylvania Environmental Protection Agency in Lawrence or Mercer counties.

US DGO to snap up gas wells from bankrupted firm - Diversified Gas & Oil (DGO) is set to acquire the upstream gas assets of bankrupted fellow US firm EdgeMarc Energy for $50mn.   DGO first announced the deal on July 25, and on August 29, it reported that the transaction had secured approval from the US bankruptcy court. EdgeMarc filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in May.The assets include 12 unconventional wells producing gas from the Utica shale in the Monroe and Washington counties of Ohio, as well as rights to other undeveloped land in the Utica region. Output currently stands at 46mn ft³/day or 7,700 boe/day, while proved-developed-producing reserves are assessed at 13.5mn boe, according to DGE. Lease operating expenses are estimated at $1.56/boe, and the wells brought in $30.5mn in Ebitda last year.DGE said the assets were near its existing operations in the Appalachian basin, creating a benefit from economies of scale. They also comprise 10 undeveloped drilling sites that DGO could sell or decide to develop. “The wells are consistent with our acquisition strategy in terms of adding high-quality, long-life assets to the portfolio,” CEO Rusty Hutson said in a statement. “We are acquiring these wells at a fraction of the cost incurred to develop them and yet given their long-life nature, we will reap the margin-enhancing benefit from them for years to come.” According to Hutson, the assets’ zero-cost capital outlay made the deal even more attractive.

The fight to end land leasing at Wayne National Forest - - Ohio’s only national forest is at the center of a heated debate, garnering the attention of national and hyper-local environmental conservation and anti-fracking groups.  At the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains, Wayne National Forest sits on 833,900 acres across 12 Ohio counties, including Athens County. The land has historically been exploited for its rich natural resources like coal, iron minerals and now, natural gas. Under two 20th-century acts — the Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 and the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920 — Wayne is legally permitted to lease parcels of land for extracting minerals for a defined period of time through a competitive bidding process.  The purpose of such sales is so citizens can benefit from mineral holdings and to encourage nonrenewable, domestic energy development, including hydraulic fracturing, a controversial method for extracting natural gas or oil from deep shale rock formations using highly pressured water, said Kelly Miller, Wayne public affairs specialist.  Land leasing was dormant for decades until in 2011, when the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service announced 3,000 acres of land were being auctioned off at Wayne. Following the announcement, members of environmental conservation organizations cited numerous concerns about how BLM executed the land leases.They claimed that the BLM violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) by approving oil and gas leases without addressing risks to watersheds, public health and climate pollution. NEPA is a 1970 act that requires federal agencies to assess the environmental effects of proposed actions prior to making decisions regarding oil or gas extraction. “It’s problematic in our view to see federal agencies leasing out land for fracking development over parts of Wayne,” said Taylor McKinnon, senior public lands campaigner for the Center of Biological Diversity (CBD). “It will completely and forever change the character of that place.”The CBD is an environmental protection nonprofit based in Arizona. CBD filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Forest Service and BLM to end land leasing in national forests, including in Wayne, arguing BLM relied on outdated plan proposals to approve the leases. The lawsuit is still ongoing and has since expanded to challenge another lease sale in March 2017 at Wayne.

 Pipeline Permit Scandal Highlights Confusion Amid Push to Build Plastics Plants – DeSmog --In a scathing audit issued on August 15 by state regulators, the Beaver County Conservation District (BCCD) earned exceptionally low marks, after auditors found troubling problems that may have played a role in a major pipeline explosion last year. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) audit highlights what can go wrong when state and local regulators are unprepared for the arrival of a powerful industry, illustrating the pressures when once-unobtrusive offices suddenly take on outsized importance amid a push to promote rapid development. Its findings could also spell trouble for Shell, which currently relies on permits authorized by the district for at least two pipelines connecting the company’s plastics plant to natural gas wells that will supply it with the raw materials to make plastics from fracked gas in the Marcellus Shale.  The district, auditors wrote, “has shown a lack of sound judgement in recent years,” grading the program overall “unsatisfactory.” On August 20, the DEP yanked the Beaver County District’s authority to be involved in erosion and sediment control permits entirely, and said it would review the district’s authority over other permits.“DEP staff identified significant and consistent problems with BCCD’s recordkeeping, permit review, and inspections,” DEPSecretary Patrick McDonnell said in a statement announcing the termination of the district’s authority. Environmental groups expressed outrage. “The improper issuance of pipeline construction permits in Beaver County without the proper review is an egregious offense,” said Joseph Otis Minott, executive director and chief counsel for environmental group Clean Air Council, “that put residents’ safety and the environment at great risk.” One Beaver County District Commissioner came under fire in the local press for failing to attend the organization’s meetings.  Auditors reported that the Beaver County District had “reviewed and authorized” an erosion and sediment control permit for the Revolution pipeline. The problem? The district had no legal authority to authorize the permit, which “should have been reviewed by DEP’s Oil and Gas Management program,” auditors wrote. The Revolution pipeline is considered a “gathering line,” which gathers gas from individual gas wells, and not a “transmission line,” which carries gas long distances, auditors wrote — and the district had no authority over gathering lines.  On September 10, 2018, the Revolution pipeline burst, unleashing a column of fire 150 feet tall, destroying a home, a barn, several cars, and prompting the evacuation of over two dozen homes. One family barely escaped with their lives, according to neighbors. The pipeline had only carried fossil fuels for eight days before igniting.   While an official investigation by the Public Utility Commission remains underway, reports indicate that the steep hillside where the explosion occurred had slipped, causing Revolution to rupture in Beaver County.

PUC’s review of pipeline safety regulation prompts attacks by residents, groups and lawmakers - Pennsylvania’s Public Utility Commission is being accused by elected officials, citizens’ groups and individuals of not doing enough to protect the public from any failure in Sunoco’s controversial Mariner East pipelines.In written responses for the PUC’s current review of pipeline safety regulations, they urge the regulator to impose many new requirements on Sunoco and any other operator of highly volatile liquids pipelines so that the public is given more protection against any leak or explosion.Two days before the PUC’s Aug. 28 deadline for receipt of comments on the review, 36 comments had been posted on the PUC’s docket from people including state lawmakers from both parties, township supervisors, a labor union, and private individuals.Some commenters, including a chamber of commerce and a labor union local, urged the PUC not to add regulations. But most submissions called for tighter curbs on the pipeline industry. Many called on the PUC, the state’s main pipeline safety regulator, to sharply step up enforcement. Their demands included:

• That PUC should require pipeline operators to hold regular public outreach meetings;
• That PUC should require operators of pipelines with 1,000 feet of schools to provide ‘non-sensitive’ information to school officials to allow them to plan for a leak;
• That PUC should require operators to disclose emergency response plans to the PUC, which would then share it with county emergency-planning officials;
• That aging pipelines like the 1930s-era Mariner East 1 should be required to undergo an “end of life” study to determine whether they can safely carry highly volatile liquids.

The PUC announced the review in June. It didn’t name a specific project, but said “the time is ripe” for such a review. The agency had been the focus of months of criticism by pipeline opponents who said it hasn’t done enough to prevent the spills,, sinkholes and punctured aquifers that have plagued the cross-state Mariner East project since it began construction in February 2017.

DEP fines Sunoco/Energy Transfer $313K for Mariner East construction violations -Energy Transfer/Sunoco Logistics will pay a combined $313,000 for two penalties related to Mariner East 2 construction violations in 2017 and 2018.This latest assessment brings the total financial penalties assessed to the company for Mariner East construction to more than $13 million.One penalty stems from the pipeline company’s horizontal directional drilling activities, which caused drilling mud spills in 16 streams and wetlands in 10 counties in 2018. Drilling mud consists of bentonite clay, which is not toxic but can damage aquatic life. The company’s actions violated the Clean Streams Law and the Dam Safety and Encroachment Act. The penalty assessed for that violation is $240,840.“DEP is committed to ensuring that Sunoco and other companies are held to the highest standard possible. These actions, which resulted in violations of permits and laws that are meant to protect our waterways, are unacceptable,” DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell said in a statement. “DEP will maintain the stringent oversight that we have consistently exercised by monitoring Sunoco and taking all steps necessary to ensure that the company complies with its permits and the law.”The company also violated the Clean Streams Law during 2017 pipeline construction, which led to erosion and sedimentation at a number of waterways in Cumberland County. The company will pay $78,621 to the state and the Cumberland County Conservation District. Construction on the $2.5 billion Mariner East project began in February 2017, after the Department of Environmental Protection identified hundreds of deficiencies in its water-crossing and earth-moving permits. Since then, the DEP has issued more than 80 violations to the company for polluting wetlands, waterways, and destroying about a dozen private water wells.

Enterprise Begins Open Season for ATEX Ethane Pipeline - Enterprise Products Partners today announced the start of a binding open season to determine demand for expanded capacity on the partnership’s Appalachia-to-Texas (“ATEX”) ethane pipeline. The 1,200-mile ATEX pipeline transports ethane from the Marcellus/Utica Basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio to Enterprise’s natural gas liquids storage complex in Mont Belvieu, Texas, and features pipeline access to petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast. Subject to sufficient customer commitments during the open season, Enterprise would add up to 50,000 barrels per day of incremental capacity through a combination of pipeline looping, hydraulic improvements and modifications to existing infrastructure. The expanded capabilities would be in service by 2022.

Expanding NGL markets likely to affect Appalachian producer decisions — Expanding markets for natural gas liquids produced in the Appalachian Basin should provide an extra financial incentive for Appalachia natural gas producers to maintain robust production in the long term, although concerns over low gas and NGL prices continue to dominate short-term planning. S&P Global Platts Analytics finds that while gas production in the Northeast is not directly linked to NGL demand, the latter factor does impact producers' break-evens on drilling. Low NGL prices will pressure well economics and may cause producers to look elsewhere for higher returns. Demand for NGLs produced in association with gas production in the basin is expected to increase dramatically in the next several years. In the short term, the demand growth will come from NGL pipeline projects being built or expanded to take NGLs such as ethane, propane and butane to markets far removed from Appalachia. In the longer term, in-basin NGL demand is expected to be generated by the construction of large-scale NGL manufacturing projects, such as the ethane cracker being built by Shell in Monaca, Pennsylvania. On Monday, Enterprise Products Partners began soliciting shipper interest in a proposed expansion of its ATEX ethane pipeline that would move more supplies from the Appalachian Basin to its NGL storage complex in Mont Belvieu, Texas. The 1,200-mile ATEX, or Appalachia -to-Texas, pipeline transports ethane from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio to Enterprise's Mont Belvieu complex. Depending on demand, Enterprise would add up to 50,000 b/d of incremental capacity by 2022, through a combination of pipeline looping, hydraulic improvements and modifications to existing infrastructure. Another pipeline option to transport NGLs out of the Appalachian Basin is Energy Transfer's 350-mile Mariner East 2 pipeline. The pipeline, which went into service late last year, has a 345,000 b/d capacity to carry a mixture of ethane, butane, pentane, propane from the tristate gas producing region to the Marcus Hook petrochemical complex and export facility in eastern Pennsylvania. A second source of NGL demand, this time in-basin, is being created with the development of a petrochemical manufacturing industry in the region identified by industry advocates as the Shale Crescent, the area surrounding the northern stretch of the Ohio River, comprising parts of the states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.

Equipment supplier for Mountaineer Express Pipeline claims it is owed more than $800,000 – A Texas company that supplied equipment for the Mountaineer Express Pipeline Project in West Virginia has filed suit against the project's owners and a contractor claiming it is owed more than $800,000 in past due invoices. According to the filing in Marshall Circuit Court, Sunbelt Tractor & Equipment Co. filed a civil action against Columbia Gas Transmission LLC, TransCanada USA Services Inc. and Welded Construction LP alleging breach of contract and unjust enrichment. Sunbelt alleges it supplied equipment and machinery to Welded for use in the construction of Mountaineer Express Pipeline, which is owned by Columbia and TransCanada. The suit states after the defendants failed to pay Sunbelt's invoices, a mechanic's lien was placed on the property for $825,977.03 and in October 2018, Welded filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In July, a bankruptcy court granted Sunbelt relief "but only to the extent required" to allow it to go ahead with its current suit. The plaintiff seeks $825,977.03 in relief.

More Midwestern fuel to flow into Pennsylvania thanks to a new pipeline deal --Pennsylvania regulators on Thursday approved a pipeline agreement that gives Midwestern fuel producers greater access to Pennsylvania markets, a fundamental market shift that comes at the expense of East Coast suppliers. The Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission approved a settlement between Buckeye Partners LP, which operates the Laurel pipeline that crosses Pennsylvania, to operate the pipeline in both directions at different times. The pipeline was historically used by Philadelphia refineries to transport gasoline, diesel, and heating oil across Pennsylvania. Buckeye sought the change, saying coastal refiners and fuel importers underutilized the pipeline, and low-cost Midwestern producers were pressing to sell more fuel into Pennsylvania.Philadelphia refiners and several large Western Pennsylvania retailers, including Sheetz Inc. and Giant Eagle stores, had fiercely resisted the change, but they agreed to the settlement after Philadelphia Energy Solutions closed its refining complex in South Philadelphia in June and declared bankruptcy. The refinery, the largest on the East Coast, was a major shipper on the pipeline.

Former CEO of shut Philadelphia refinery seeks to buy the plant - (Reuters) - The former chief executive officer of Philadelphia Energy Solutions is seeking to buy and restart the 335,000 barrel-per-day PES refinery, which closed after a June fire, the former CEO and backers of the plan said in a statement on Wednesday. Philip Rinaldi, who retired from PES in 2016, formed Philadelphia Energy Industries (PEI) as a vehicle to pursue the purchase, the statement said. “We can reinvigorate the site as an economic juggernaut that generates billions of dollars of revenue and provides thousands of high-paying jobs for our skilled professional and labor workforce,” Rinaldi said in the statement. PEI and RNG Energy Solutions, LLC have entered into a mutual cooperation agreement for the prospective development of renewable fuels and other projects together with the restart of the oil refinery “should PEI be ultimately successful in its acquisition efforts,” the statement said. “My focus and drive in pursuing this acquisition is to revitalize, modernize, and develop the site and the strategic refinery business that has existed there for decades to their full potential,” Rinaldi said. Rinaldi said he had spoken with the leadership of the refinery’s local union about the plan to acquire the refinery, the largest and oldest on the U.S. East Coast. The financial details of the proposal were not made available.

New uses, even non-use, will complicate PES refinery cleanup - Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection offered an update on — and a possible complication in — the ongoing Sunoco-era cleanup at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions complex during the latest meeting of the city’s Refinery Advisory Group.Toxic pollutants have poured onto the 1,300 acres in South Philadelphia — home to what are now the PES refineries — for over 150 years. The list of contaminants of concern found in the soil, groundwater and surface water include hard-to-pronounce compounds such as methyl tert-butyl ether. The late June fire and explosion at PES that spurred the creation of the Refinery Advisory Group underlined the environmental dangers of having heavy industry in the middle of a city.Cleanups were underway long before the fire and its ripple effects got the city looking in that direction. Sunoco (now Energy Transfer), the previous owner of the site, is responsible for addressing the historic contamination there. The company has been remediating the site since 1993 under various agreements overseen by the DEP and the Environmental Protection Agency. Post-2012 contamination resulting from operations of the complex falls to PES to address, under a buyer-seller agreement between the two companies.But with the possibility of either the permanent shutdown of the complex — PES ceased operations because of damage caused by the fire, then filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and laid off much of its workforce — or its sale for new uses to be determined by future buyers, all of that work might have to change, a DEP official said at Tuesday’s Refinery Advisory Group session, which focused on environmental issues.“All the work that has been going on in the last 30 years has been under conditions of an operating refinery,” said David Brown, of the agency’s Bureau of Environmental Cleanup & Brownfields. “That has meant that there have been some areas that have not been investigated.”

Officials: Gov. Justice committed to WV's oil and gas industry — Gov. Jim Justice will make promoting and protecting the state’s oil and gas industry his top priority during the reminder of his time in office, according to two members of his administration. Speaking before a crowded room of business leaders from across the state during the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce’s Annual Meeting and Business Summit on Wednesday, state Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Austin Caperton and Department of Revenue Secretary Dave Hardy talked about the current state of West Virginia’s extractive industries and plans for development of a petrochemical manufacturing industry.

FERC backs water crossing changes for Mountain Valley Pipeline — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Tuesday approved Mountain Valley Pipeline's request to change crossing methods for nine waterbodies over a conservation group's objections alleging the project is seeking to change conditions of its certificate while circumventing standard review processes. FERC's quick sanctioning of the proposed changes as environmentally beneficial comes amid legal battles with environmental groups over Endangered Species Act protections and US Army Corps authorizations for water crossings for the project. The 300-mile, 2 Bcf/d natural gas pipeline project would transport Appalachia Basin-produced gas from West Virginia to Virginia and to markets in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Commission staff in a letter order Tuesday said the proposed changes would lower impact to aquatic resources and backed the shift from the dry open-cut method of crossing for crossing nine waterbodies and one wetland to the conventional bore method, as MVP requested August 23. Moreover, FERC said the resources in question are outside areas where MVP voluntarily suspended construction to avoid affecting the candy darter and Roanoke logperch, following a lawsuit filed by environmental groups over species protections. FERC also said the US Army Corps of Engineers confirmed no permits were needed to allow the altered crossings under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act, and that the waterbodies and wetland do not come under jurisdiction of Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act. In urging FERC to deny MVP's request Monday, before FERC granted approval Tuesday, the Indian Creek Watershed Association noted that MVP's request was not accessible to the public until Monday morning. It contended that through a host of variance requests, MVP has sought to change crossing methods for more than 40 streams "while circumventing standard agency review and approval processes, as well as public review and comment." "There is no evidence that any regulatory body has seen, commented on, or approved the revised crossing plans for any of these proposed changes," the conservation group said. Further, it contended the approach circumvents a 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals order in October 2018 vacating MVP's 404 permit to cross streams and wetlands.

FERC asks for new review of endangered species in the path of the Mountain Valley Pipeline - The fate of endangered species is becoming more of a danger to the Mountain Valley Pipeline. In a letter Wednesday, the lead federal agency overseeing construction of the natural gas pipeline asked the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider its earlier finding that the project would not significantly harm protected fish and bats in its path. The request from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and word from the Fish and Wildlife Service that it will comply, came two weeks after the Sierra Club and other environmental groups filed a legal challenge to the service’s 2017 opinion. Although the two agencies’ actions appear to do what the legal challenge had asked for, at least partially, it was not clear Wednesday whether ongoing work on the pipeline would have to stop. Because the project does not have a valid biological opinion and incidental take statement, the two permits now being reconsidered, “all work on the pipeline should halt until a new one is issued,” the Sierra Club coalition said in a statement. But there was no official word from FERC or the Fish and Wildlife Service that construction of the pipeline must stop while the permits are reviewed. Last week, attorneys for the Sierra Club asked the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to issue a stay of the service’s approvals, pending a legal review of claims that they do not adequately protect about a half-dozen endangered or threatened species. The Fish and Wildlife Service and Mountain Valley indicated that they would oppose a stay, and the court gave them until Thursday to file written arguments. Nothing had been filed by Wednesday evening. A Mountain Valley spokeswoman also did not answer questions about whether it would be forced to stop construction.

Green groups say no high court review needed on Atlantic Coast Pipeline hurdle - Alternative paths possible for projects and new pipes, groups say. Warning of 2,200-mile barrier is 'hyperbole,' they argue. — Environmental groups weighed in against US Supreme Court action to free up the 600-mile, 1.5 Bcf/d Atlantic Coast Pipeline, countering assertions that an appeals court ruling left unchecked could have widespread implications for eastern US energy projects. The natural gas project, intended to move Appalachian gas to Mid-Atlantic markets, has faced a series of legal setbacks, including a 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals decision that struck federal authorizations allowing the pipeline to cross the Appalachian National Scenic Trail and national forests. Dominion Energy and the US Department of Justice in June asked the Supreme Court take up the case, challenging the part of the ruling that found the US Forest Service lacked authority under the Mineral Leasing Act to grant the right of way to cross the trail because the land is under exclusive authority of the National Park Service. Dominion had argued that, if left to stand, the decision would have "dramatic consequences," converting the Appalachian Trail into a 2,200-mile barrier to critical infrastructure (US Forest Service, et al., v. Cowpasture River Preservation Association, 18-1584, 18-1587). Disputing that sense of urgency for the Supreme Court to hear the case, environmental groups in a brief to the Supreme Court Wednesday noted that there are three remaining bases for the 4th Circuit judgment that threaten to make a Supreme Court decision irrelevant to the pipeline. For instance, the 4th Circuit required the Forest Service on remand to "study routes that avoid national forests and required a reroute if those alternatives can accommodate the pipeline," the groups said. If there is such an alternative, that would make any Supreme Court ruling "purely advisory," they said. "Atlantic will require right of way across the Appalachian Trail on the national forest only if the Forest Service properly approves the same route following a remand, and only if the Forest Service resolves all remaining issues in favor of ACP," they wrote. ALTERNATIVE PATHS Further, they asserted that ACP made a hyperbolic argument that the 4th Circuit decision threatens to choke off the flow of natural gas to the East Coast. Numerous sites remain available for new pipeline construction across state and private lands, or co-located within existing easements, they said. Existing pipelines are also unaffected by the ruling, they wrote, because none were authorized by the Forest Service to cross the Appalachian Trail under the MLA. "In the 51 years since Congress designated the Appalachian Trail, the Forest Service had never granted a new right-of-way to an oil or gas pipeline to cross the Trail in a national forest," they said. The decision had at most one consequence, that Atlantic must reroute the pipeline to avoid crossing the trail on federal land, they contended. They also made the case that the decision does not conflict with other circuits. Finally, they argued that Atlantic has publicly assured investors that its current route is viable without Supreme Court review. The only other pipeline affected, Mountain Valley Pipeline, also believes it has an administrative path forward, the environmental groups said.

As Pipeline Construction Booms, Citizens Take Inspections Into Their Own Hands -On a recent hot, August weekend, about a dozen citizens spent three days along the route of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Armed with cameras, smartphones and drones the volunteers traveled portions of the pipeline’s route under construction from Monroe to Doddridge counties.  “There was several things that we saw,” said Summers County resident and organic farmer Neal Laferriere.  Laferriere organized the three-day “violations blitz.” He said volunteers documented small problems like poorly-maintained erosion controls as well as much larger ones. “Sediment-laden water in one situation was overflowing the controls and going directly into a creek,” he said. “So, definitely affecting the waterways of the state, which is a big violation.”In total, the volunteers collected about 60 examples of what they deemed to be permit violations by the pipeline. Their efforts are part of a citizen monitoring program run by conservation group the West Virginia Rivers Coalition. In 2012, West Virginia Rivers and Trout Unlimited created a program that trained volunteers how to monitor their local trout streams to determine if they were being affected by the state’s booming oil and gas industry. As more natural gas pipelines have been approved for construction in West Virginia, the program expanded to include pipeline construction monitoring. “Pipeline construction releases a lot of sediment and sediment-laden water -- muddy water -- into what would otherwise be clear and pristine streams,” said Autumn Crowe, senior scientist with West Virginia Rivers. “That sediment, when it gets into the water body, it has multiple negative impacts on aquatic life and water quality.”West Virginia Rivers collects the complaints and submits them to the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection. The group worked with WVDEP’s enforcement department to develop the training materials. Crowe said citizen monitoring, including this most recent “violations blitz,” fills an enforcement gap in West Virginia.  “What the vio-blitz was showing us is that there were multiple issues along the entire route that were not being addressed,” she said. “And if not for our volunteers, a lot of those issues would have gone unnoticed.”

A step too far for the Appalachian Trail  - Dominion Energy wants to run a massive pipeline across America’s treasured Appalachian National Scenic Trail and some of the least developed wildlands remaining in the East. This isn’t just a bad idea, it’s an unprecedented one. Dominion, the Virginia-based power giant that serves customers in 18 states, wants to do something that has never been done in the half century since the iconic hiking path was enshrined in law: force a pipeline across the Appalachian Trail on federal land managed by the Forest Service.To get its way, the company must persuade lawmakers to overturn a federal court decision and change a law that has protected important parts of the trail for almost 50 years. Congress should say no.The conservation of the American landscape is a deeply patriotic tradition to which I have dedicated my life. I grew up in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia where my experiences along the Appalachian Trail and in the Blue Ridge Mountains fostered my love of the outdoors and my career in conservation. I climbed every mountain within sight of my home and fished every river. From 2009 to 2017, I served as director of the National Park Service, capping 40 years at the agency working to ensure—as Congress required when it passed the National Park Service Organic Act in 1916—that our national parks remain “unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.” The Appalachian Trail has been one of the jewels of our national park system since its creation in 1968. Every year, it draws millions of visitors, offering the opportunity to explore scenery and solitude from Georgia to Maine. Lands adjacent to the trail also provide important habitat for wildlife and plants. Like the creation of the trail itself, conservation has traditionally transcended politics. As a nation, we have decided to set aside some areas as national parks or designated wilderness and establish an American vision of conservation that resonates around the world. The writer and historian Wallace Stegner called our national parks “absolutely American” and “the best idea we ever had.”

Cause of pipeline explosion still a question. Preliminary findings list previous failures of same gas line - --The cause of a fatal pipeline explosion in Lincoln County has not yet been determined, according to preliminary findings released by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).   The findings state the possibility of damage to two more gas pipelines that run near the line that exploded cannot be ruled out. The pipeline exploded in the Indian Camp neighborhood in Moreland Aug. 1, killing one person and destroying five homes. PHMSA’s findings are included in a corrective action order issued by the agency. They show that the blast blew 30 feet of pipeline out of the ground, resulting in a crater that is 50 feet long, 35 feet wide and 13 feet deep. PHMSA says it is estimated that 66 million cubic feet of natural gas was released by the failure, with the resulting fire destroying multiple structures and burning vegetation over approximately 30 acres of land. The Texas Eastern transmission line is owned by Spectra Energy Partners, which is owned by Enbridge Inc., based in Calgary, Canada. The entire system is 9,100-miles long, carrying natural gas from northeastern America to the Gulf Coast region. PHMSA says the failure happened at 1:24 a.m. Aug. 1. At 1:25 a.m., Enbridge’s Gas Control in Houston, Texas, received a rate of change alarm on Line 15, on the south side of the Danville Compressor Station. Then within minutes, public reports came in of a fire in the area. The report says a Danville Compressor Station operator also received the rate of change alarm and observed the rupture fire from the window of the compressor station control room. During the minutes that followed, other Enbridge employees confirmed the reported fire, indicating the failure of Line 15. Personnel at the compressor station then closed the line discharge valve, located north of the failure site. Texas Eastern field personnel responded by closing the Line 15 main block valve, then “further isolated a portion of the affected segment” and also shut down Lines 10 and 25, which it says were blocked in between the Danville Compressor Station and the Tompkinsville Compressor Station. When the pipeline blew out of the ground, it landed approximately 460 feet from the failure site. Aside from the death of Lisa Derringer, 58, of Stanford, the explosion also resulted in the hospitalization of six people.

Michigan tribes consider suit to prevent Line 5's 'unacceptable risk' - If the state’s bid to decommission Enbridge’s Line 5 oil pipeline falls short, Michigan’s Indian tribes say they’re ready to launch their own lawsuit. Michigan’s five tribes with fishing rights in the Straits of Mackinac have penned their opposition to the dual pipeline in formal resolutions, held kayak rallies in the straits to protest it and have been kept informed about ongoing negotiations between Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the Canadian oil company. They say they won’t hesitate to double down on their Wisconsin neighbors’ July lawsuit seeking the closure of a portion of the line running through the Bad River Band Reservation. Or, at the least, they want to find a way to intervene in the state’s lawsuit against Enbridge.  “If and when the time comes where the state’s answer, the federal government’s answer, is to keep the pipeline in place, we view that as an unacceptable risk. We’ll do anything we have to, including taking it to court,” said Bryan Newland, chairman of the Bay Mills Indian Community in the Upper Peninsula. Bay Mills is one of five tribes named in an 1836 treaty with the federal government that guarantees them a continued right to fish in the Great Lakes and a legal stake in the Straits of Mackinac.  The dual span across the straits is part of a pipeline that carries light crude and natural gas liquids shipped from Superior, Wisconsin, across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, south through the lower Peninsula and then across the St. Clair River into Sarnia, Ontario. The pipeline has long prompted concern among activists because of the catastrophic effects a potential leak in the Straits would have on Lakes Michigan and Huron. Enbridge maintains its pipeline is safe but would be safer in a tunnel 100 feet below the lake bed.

Business groups urge Cuomo to approve gas line, end moratorium - A day after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo called for a stepped-up probe into potentially “improper” gas shut-offs by National Grid, five Long Island business and building-trade groups sent a letter urging the governor to approve a pipeline at the center of the gas company’s moratorium. Local businesses and homeowners seeking new gas hookups have been receiving letters from National Grid since earlier this year saying the company can’t commit to any firm new service without the proposed Northeast Supply Enhancement project, a $1 billion pipeline that will travel 24 miles under New York waterways. Environmental groups say National Grid has fabricated a gas shortage to tie the region to a fossil-fuel future. The two-page letter to Cuomo from the largest developer, building trade and business groups on Long Island makes no mention of the reason the state Department of Environmental Conservation in May rejected developer Williams Co.’s request for a water quality permit for the project. Instead, the letter, from the Association for a Better Long Island, the Long Island Association, the Long Island Builders Institute, the Building and Construction Trades Council of Nassau and Suffolk and the Long Island Federation of Labor, cites the groups’ “tremendous concern” over the moratorium, calling it “widespread and all-encompassing.” Cuomo's office didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the letter. The latest moves come after a summer of contention over the pipeline that would bring vast new gas supply to the National Grid service area at a time when Cuomo is steering the state toward exclusively green energy. New York State has twice rejected a water-quality permit for the project, citing toxic sediment impacts from laying the line 24 miles under New York Bay. Developer Williams Co. has resubmitted its applications and the state issue a final ruling by next May.

FERC puts Constitution Pipeline back on track, finding New York waived water authority | S&P Global Platts— The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has found that New York waived its water quality authority for Williams' Constitution Pipeline, giving new life to a natural gas project stalled since April 2016 when state regulators denied a permit. The 124-mile project is designed to ship up to 650 MMcf/d of northeastern Pennsylvania gas production to interconnections with the Iroquois Gas Transmission and Tennessee Gas Pipeline in upstate New York.The commission, by a 4-0 vote late Wednesday, reversed its earlier finding -- that the New York review could not be waived -- in light of a recent DC Circuit Court of Appeals ruling in Hoopa Valley v. FERC. The Hoopa case had involved a hydropower project for which states and PacifiCorp agreed to defer the Clean Water Act's one-year statutory deadline by annually withdrawing and resubmitting the water permit.The commission interpreted the ruling to "stand for the general principal" that states waive their CWA Section 401 authority when a project application is withdrawn and resubmitted to avoid the act's one-year time limit for state decisions, and the state fails to act in that timeframe, the commission said.FERC rejected arguments from New York and environmental groups that differing circumstances in the Constitution case weighed against granting a waiver."The record [for Constitution] indicates that the state encouraged Constitution's withdrawal and resubmission of its application for the purpose of avoiding the waiver period," FERC concluded. The start of construction is unlikely to be imminent. Williams in a statement said Constitution sponsors "are evaluating next steps for advancing the project," and asserted the project represents much needed infrastructure for a region confronting natural gas supply constraints that have elevated prices for consumers.

As colder months approach, debate heats up over natural gas expansion –  Business groups and environmentalists are ratcheting up their rhetoric in the ongoing battle over a proposed expansion of a natural gas pipeline under New York Harbor. Environmental advocates are looking to draw a line in the sand in opposing the $1 billion underwater pipeline extension, arguing that the project is in conflict with the state’s pledge to switch to renewable energy sources. At the same time, business groups and developers maintain they are being hurt by National Grid’s self-imposed moratorium on new natural gas customers, which the utility says it can’t lift until the pipeline project is allowed to move forward. At stake, opponents say, is the health of the environment, while supporters say killing the project threatens the region’s economic wellbeing. National Grid says the pipeline expansion, also known as the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project, would increase capacity in the area by 14 percent, delivering 400 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. The utility insists that without it, a natural gas shortage is likely this winter. The project, a 24-mile expansion of the existing Williams-Transco pipeline, would run 17 miles underwater, stretching from New Jersey under New York Bay to another existing pipeline off the Rockaways. However, the state Department of Environmental Conservation denied the project’s application in May, causing the utility to immediately impose a moratorium on new natural gas service.

Study Finds Climate Emissions Higher in the Northeast — Gas leaks are a still a big problem and perhaps worse than initially believed.A new study of Northeast cities such as Providence and Boston found that emissions of natural gas and methane were higher than previous estimates, including projections by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).The study Large Fugitive Methane Emissions From Urban Centers Along the U.S. East Coast conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration used airplane surveillance of downwind gas blooms to measure greenhouse gases. It found that Boston and New York are emitting twice as much methane as projected, likely from leaks called “end-of-use” emissions from pipes beneath streets, from service lines, and from appliances inside homes. Providence also measured for greenhouse gases higher than previous surveys. However, the city is the smallest of the six surveyed and therefore the volume of emissions was considered insufficient to be accurate.“Providence was the hardest one we sampled to get very robust conclusions,” said Eric A. Kort, co-author of the study and an assistant professor in the Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering department at the University of Michigan. Nevertheless, the conclusions reached from the five other urban areas reinforce pleas for repairing gas leaks in and around homes. According to the EPA, methane has up to 36 times the global warming impact as carbon dioxide over 100 years. Southboro, Mass., resident Bob Ackley, of Gas Safety Inc., has been tracking gas leaks in neighborhoods across southern New England for 10 years, sounding the alarm about tree damage and other environmental impacts.  Ackley, a retired leak-detection contractor for utilities, said the biggest leaks, called “super emitters,” are 7 percent of leaks but account for 50 percent of all discharges. He said climate impacts from gas leaks are avoidable, while the damage to trees can be fatal, costing communities untold money for tree care and removal. “National Grid is paying towns for damage to trees, but they don't want to tell anyone,” Ackley said.

Air Monitoring Reveals Troubling Benzene Spikes Officials Don’t Fully Understand — Standing behind the podium at a jam-packed City Council meeting in South Portland, Maine, Danielle Twomey is in an unenviable position. She is a chemist with the state, and she swore to herself she wouldn't reveal the extent to which potentially hazardous chemicals are polluting the air unless there was an expert on hand to explain the public health implications. "I was expecting the state toxicologist to be here," she says to the group. "I'm a little disturbed he isn't." Twomey and her colleagues from the Maine Department of Environmental Protection have come to deliver the first results of a nascent air sampling effort. It combines snapshot samples taken by residents with "grab" canisters and 24-hour samples obtained at a few air monitoring stations set up across the city. Twomey hasn't had time to analyze many samples yet, but the work she has done is starting to paint a picture of the air in South Portland. And it's not pretty. People in South Portland have always wondered about their air. Some days, an industrial stench fills the skies. When the fumes aren't bad, the smell is a nuisance. When they're bad, they can sting the eyes and nose and cause headaches.With 120 petroleum storage tanks scattered along the city's shores and a regular stream of tankers coming and going, it's no secret that the fossil fuel industry has a big presence here. But no one really started asking questions about the health implications of the fumes until March, when the city learned that Global Partners was being fined by the EPA for violating the Clean Air Act. Its tanks, which contain asphalt and bunker fuel, had the potential to emit twice the amount of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) than its permit allowed. It wasn't long before the city learned that a second company, Sprague, had been issued a notice of violation for the same thing. City leaders, caught off-guard by the announcement of a settlement between the EPA and Global Partners, jumped into action. They met with the state and the companies, and they  launched the air monitoring program to start to understand the scope of the problem.

Heard for miles: Gas explosion hits office, shopping complex - A powerful natural gas explosion badly damaged a Maryland office complex and shopping center Sunday morning, ripping away part of the facade and exposing twisted metal, authorities said. No injuries were reported in the thundering blast, which occurred at about 8 a.m. It came after authorities said they had evacuated the area around the complex because of a suspected early morning gas leak near the complex in Columbia, Maryland. Fire crews responded about an hour before the explosion because of a fire alarm that was upgraded to a report of a gas leak in the parking lot, officials said. When fire personnel arrived, they immediately evacuated everyone from the surrounding area and made sure the building was vacant. The subsequent explosion ripped away a significant part of the facade, scattering debris. “It was so powerful it could be heard in communities many miles away,” said Howard County Executive Calvin Ball in a statement. No businesses were open, said Stephen Hardesty, the battalion chief of the Howard County Department of Fire and Rescue Services. He said the time of day played a major role in the lack of injuries, and he described it as one of the worst explosions he’s seen.

Tropics Finally Come To Life - It has been a very slow hurricane season so far, but as we head now into what is typically peak season, things are coming to life. We are tracking a couple of systems out in the Atlantic basin, with the focus being on Tropical Storm Dorian, entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. natural gas commodity weather The storm is moving off to the west-northwest, which is predicted to continue the next few days by the National Hurricane Center. natural gas commodity weather A couple of things stand out here. The most obvious is the track which heads up into the Bahamas and then to the east coast of Florida this weekend. But you will also notice that it is forecast to stay a tropical storm. It has a big fight ahead of it in the near term, battling dry air, and then perhaps contending with the island of Hispaniola, notorious for tearing tropical systems apart, so there is some risk it doesn't even survive beyond that point. If it is able to do so, the environment once into the Bahamas would become more favorable for development, and that's where it could intensify more than forecast, again, if it survives. Needless to say, all interests in the Bahamas and Florida need to watch this one. What about the Gulf of Mexico? We can't write that off as a risk, as some members of the ensemble modeling do bring the system across Florida and into the Gulf early next week. natural gas commodity weather So, yes, even Gulf interests should keep one eye on Dorian. Risk is low right now due to how far away it is, and the battles in front of it. We will know more in 2-3 days after it clears the big islands of the Caribbean. We also have Tropical Depression Six off the Southeast coast, expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today, but this one poses no risk for an impact here in the United States. natural gas commodity weather We will closely be watching these systems, as well as the rest of the Atlantic basin as we move through the climatologically favored time of year for development to gauge possible impacts to the U.S, and of course, energy interests.

Why Hurricane Dorian is lifting natural-gas prices - Natural-gas futures logged their highest close in more than five weeks Thursday as Hurricane Dorian, which poses no big threat to energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, serves as a wake-up call that the worst of Atlantic hurricane season may be yet to come. The season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. “The peak isn’t until closer to mid-September,” said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit. “Traders are now more sensitive to tropical developments.” Dorian is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 hurricane and poses a major threat to the southeastern U.S., especially Florida, over the Labor Day weekend, according to Weather.com. It’s forecast to hit the Southeast U.S., mostly likely somewhere between Florida and southeast Georgia, from Sunday to Monday. “The hurricane looks likely to make landfall in Florida and move north rather than into the Gulf from what I’ve seen, so [there’s] no reason to expect shut-in production from this,” said Steeves. Still, natural gas has seen sharp price gains over the last two sessions. On Thursday, October natural gasin its first full session as the front-month contract, tacked on 7.4 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $2.296 per million British thermal units. That was the highest for a front month since July 23, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Traders will continue to keep an eye on the storm’s path. “Should the forecasted path take a turn toward the Gulf, crews [from oil and natural-gas platforms] will be evacuated, and production will decrease for a short period of time,” according to a report issued Thursday from energy data analytics company, Enverus Drillinginfo.

US natural gas in underground storage rises 60 Bcf: EIA — US natural gas in storage increased 60 Bcf to 2.857 Tcf for the week ended August 23, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The injection was more than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 57 Bcf injection. Wider responses to the survey ranged from 53 Bcf to 60 Bcf. The build was less than the 66 Bcf injection reported during the corresponding week in 2018 but more than the five-year-average injection of 57 Bcf, according to EIA data. It marked the largest injection since the week ended July 26. As a result, stocks were 363 Bcf, or nearly 15%, above the year-ago level of 2.494 Tcf and 100 Bcf, or about 3%, below the five-year average of 2.957 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub October contract dipped about 1 cent immediately after the report's release but edged up in afternoon trading to settle at $2.30/MMBtu, or about 5 cents higher day on day. Infographic: SoCal gas storage shoulder-season injections at risk The US supply-demand balance tightened about 400 MMcf/d during the week ended August 23, thanks largely to gains in LNG feedgas demand and an uptick in gas-fired electric generation. An apparent end to maintenance at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass liquefaction facility helped lift total US feedgas demand by 1 Bcf/d last week. Power burn demand also climbed 600 MMcf/d, led mostly by warmer temperatures in the US Northeast. On the supply side, relatively flat domestic output last week was bolstered by a 500 MMcf/d uptick in gas imports from Canada, largely concentrated in the Northeast. For the week in progress, Platts Analytics' supply-demand model is forecasting another bearish injection of 72 Bcf, which would outpace the 64 Bcf injection reported during the corresponding week last year, as well as the five-year-average injection of 66 Bcf. The most recent seasonal forecast, now calling for end-October storage levels to reach 3.5 Tcf, could see some downside risk, though, as export demand for US gas continues to ramp up. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador confirmed publicly Tuesday that the federal government and state-owned power generator CFE had reached an settlement agreement with pipeline developers Grupo Carso, IEnova and TC Energy that could see the long-awaited 2.6 Bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline enter service soon. Upon startup, Platts Analytics expects that US gas exports to Mexico could quickly rise about 500 MMcf/d and potentially by as much as 1 Bcf/d, depending reconfiguration at Cempoala -- a key compressor station along Mexico's central coast that will help move gas into the country's southeast.

 North America Tops LNG New-build Ranking - Nearly three-fourths of growth in new-build liquefaction capacity worldwide through 2023 will be in North America, GlobalData concludes.North America will account for approximately 73 percent of growth in new-build liquefaction capacity in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry through 2023, according to a new report from the data and analytics firm GlobalData.“North America is expected to add 26 new-build LNG liquefaction terminals during the outlook period,” GlobalData Oil and Gas Analyst Soorya Tejomoortula said in a written statement emailed to Rigzone.The report – “Global LNG Liquefaction Industry Outlook to 2023 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Planned Liquefaction Terminals” – assumes 243 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new-build North America’s liquefaction capacity by 2023. The firm notes that announced projects make up the majority of the region’s new-build capacity.Tejomoortula added that North America’s largest new-build liquefaction terminal will be NextDecade Corp.’s 27-mtpa Rio Grande LNG project near Brownsville, Texas. The facility, set to begin operations four years from now, will produce LNG from low-cost natural gas from the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, Rigzone reported in May. The Middle East follows North America as the second-highest region in terms of liquefaction capacity growth, GlobalData also finds. The firm stated the region will add 32 mtpa of capacity by 2023 in the form of the Qatar LNG facility – the only announced terminal in the Middle East. Ranked third is the Former Soviet Union, with Russia accounting for entire region’s 29 mtpa of new-build capacity during the period. A chart provided by GlobalData breaks down planned and announced new-build capacity through 2023 by region.

Commonwealth LNG files for Louisiana export facility » - Texas-based Commonwealth LNG has filed paperwork with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to build and operate a liquefied natural gas liquefaction/export facility in southwest Louisiana, Kallanish Energy reports. The plans call for six trains that together could produce 8.4 million tons per year (Mtpa) of LNG. That capacity could be expanded to 9.2 Mtpa. The LNG facility is scheduled to begin service in the first quarter of 2024. A final investment decision is expected by late 2020. The company, with headquarters in Houston, has asked Ferc to approve the $4 billion project by early 2021. The project includes connecting pipelines. It filed preliminary paperwork with Ferc in 2017. The facility, to be built on 400 acres in Cameron Parish, would be the among the second or third wave of U.S. LNG facilities to come online. The project would create up to 2,000 construction jobs. Privately-held Commonwealth LNG is a subsidiary of an investment firm owned by Paul Varello. Last June, it signed a heads of agreement with Gunvor Singapore Pte Ltd. to buy up to 1.5 Mtpa of LNG for 15 years.

US LNG Export Plans Hit Trade War Snags-- Liquefied natural gas may have dodged the latest round of Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods, but plans for new American terminals to ship the fuel abroad are under threat as the trade war escalates. Tellurian Inc. and other developers will probably delay final investment decisions on multibillion-dollar U.S. LNG export projects to 2020 from this year as the tensions complicate negotiations with potential Chinese gas buyers, according to Bank of America Corp. While LNG isn’t among the goods Beijing will target in retaliatory levies that take effect next month, a 25 percent duty imposed in June still stands, raised from 10 percent previously. The trade dispute is intensifying as roughly a dozen companies look to become part of the so-called second wave of U.S. LNG export terminals expected to start up in the next few years. Smaller developers face intense competition from deep-pocketed oil giants like Exxon Mobil Corp., Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which didn’t need to sign long-term contracts before greenlighting their projects. A collapse in global gas prices amid a glut of supply from the U.S. to Australia is also pressuring the industry. For an investment decision on Tellurian’s $28-billion Driftwood project in Louisiana, “we see delays as likely given current pricing headwinds, no resolution yet on the U.S.-China trade war, and minimal contract announcements in recent months,” Bank of America analysts led by Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote Friday in a note to clients. Joi Lecznar, a spokeswoman for Tellurian, said the company is still targeting a final investment decision this year. Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd. will also likely push back a final investment decision on its Magnolia terminal in Louisiana to 2020 because of growing competition, and NextDecade Corp. may delay a decision on its Rio Grande project in Texas to next year, according to Cowen Inc. Toni Beck, a spokeswoman for NextDecade, said the company is still planning a final investment decision in 2019. LNG Ltd. declined to comment. Shares of Tellurian fell as much as 19 percent Friday, the most since March, after surging earlier in the month. NextDecade dropped as much as 13 percent, while LNG Ltd. slipped 2.6 percent. While China is a fast-growing market for gas, it hasn’t imported any U.S. LNG since February, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The Asian nation has received 62 American cargoes since 2016, putting it behind South Korea, Mexico and Japan.

 A Perfect Storm Is Brewing For US LNG - That the U.S. energy industry would be among those hardest hit by a full-blown trade war between Washington and Beijing was a no-brainer. Yet the extent of the fallout as the war continues is only becoming evident now, as some companies find it hard to secure the funding for their ambitious LNG projects. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a number of companies may delay their final investment decisions on new LNG capacity to next year because of U.S.-Chinese trade tensions. Bloomberg reports these include Tellurian and NextDecade, as well as other companies focused exclusively on LNG. While the companies themselves are not too talkative when it comes to possible obstacles to the so-called second wave of LNG projects in the U.S., the facts are not encouraging: China has imported no U.S. LNG since March, according to data from ClipperData. Bloomberg data is even gloomier: it suggests no U.S. LNG has made its way into China since February. No wonder, since Beijing first imposed a 10-percent tariff on the commodity and then upped this to 25 percent in retaliation for U.S. tariffs.Yet there is another aspect of the trade war that is more damaging to U.S. LNG producers. To secure funding for these projects that typically cost billions, U.S. companies need long-term commitments to convince banks the projects are viable. Chinese buyers were the natural choice for these long-term commitments but this is no longer the case as Chinese investors shun U.S. projects amid the war.To add insult to injury, the gas price context is increasingly unfavourable and could add justification to delays in final investment decisions. U.S. energy companies are producing too much gas at a time when domestic demand is stalling and global demand is being met by a growing number of countries. LNG projects are also suffering the effects of low gas prices. As RBC recently forecast, this year, the natural gas market will remain oversupplied, and this oversupply will extend into 2020 as well. U.S. LNG exports were hailed as a double blessing: on the one hand, expanding U.S. companies global presence on the LNG market and on the other, relieving a persistent natural gas glut resulting from the growth of the shale oil and gas industry. The size of this relief grewfrom just 2.92 billion cu ft in 2013 to 1,083 billion cu ft last year. Now, its further growth that could turn the United States into the world’s top LNG exporter by 2024 is under threat.

U.S. Gulf Coast refinery operators keep an eye on Hurricane Dorian - (Reuters) - Chevron Corp’s 356,440 barrel-per-day Pascagoula, Mississippi, refinery is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Dorian, a company spokesman said on Thursday. Dorian is churning across the Atlantic Ocean toward landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida over the weekend and may enter into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week, according to some computer models. “Pascagoula is following hurricane procedures and paying close attention to the track and forecast of the storm,” Chevron spokesman Braden Reddall said in an email. Refineries in Louisiana were not making preparations on Thursday for the storm, said people familiar with operations at Valero Energy Corp’s Meraux, Louisiana, refinery and PBF Energy Inc’s Chalmette, Louisiana, plant. Royal Dutch Shell Plc refineries in Norco and Convent, Louisiana, had no preparations under way on Thursday, a spokesman said. Marathon Petroleum Corp’s Garyville, Louisiana, refinery did not respond to a request for comment about operations. Dorian is predicted to have winds reaching 130 mph (209 kph) in 72 hours, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said on Thursday. That would make it a Category 4 storm, the second-strongest on the Saffir-Simpson scale for measuring hurricane intensity. Forecast tracks show the hurricane either remaining over land and moving north into Georgia, or entering the Gulf and making a second landfall in either the Florida panhandle, Alabama or Mississippi. The Gulf Coast is home to more that 45% of U.S. national refining capacity. The Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 16% of U.S. oil and 3% of natural gas production. Most offshore production platforms are in the central and western areas of the Gulf.

The US is about to send a lot more oil into an already oversupplied world market - The oil market is already struggling with too much supply, and the U.S. is about to flood the world with a lot more.In the last decade, the U.S. has more than doubled oil production to 12.3 million barrels a day, making it the world’s largest producer. But the infrastructure needed to transport that crude out of Texas oil fields and onto the world market has been lacking. This month marks a big change for the industry with the start of the Plains All American Pipeline’s Cactus II, a 670,000 barrel a day pipeline, connecting the Permian Basin to Corpus Christi, Texas, and from there to the world. That pipeline, and another, named Epic, are just the start, with more to follow. The new pipelines are expected to take more Texas crude to the Gulf Coast, and from there it can be shipped out to the world, but the world is now well supplied, and even more U.S. oil could help depress prices, especially if the trade wars continue to suppress demand.According to Citigroup, the new pipelines could help grow U.S. oil exports from the current 3 million barrels a day by 1 million barrels more by year-end and another million barrels next year. Exports have already grown by an average 970,00 barrels a day this year over last year, according to Citigroup. “It will be 4 million barrels a day by six or eight months. Four million barrels a day is a lot bigger than the North Sea as a whole. That crude oil is going to go everywhere. It goes to Asia, Europe, to India,” said Edward Morse, Citigroup global head of commodities research. “If the U.S. gets to 6 million barrels a day in three years, it will be hands-down the world benchmark.”The surge in pipeline capacity will help unlock a bottleneck of oil in the Permian Basin, which Citi has forecast could double its production to about 8 million barrels a day by 2023.As the pipelines are being built, there will be a need for increased export capacity. Shipping facilities are being expanded all along the Gulf Coast, in Texas and in Louisiana. The U.S. will soon have the export capacity for 6 million barrels a day, and even more is planned, according to Citi.

Texas Crude Exports Might Have To Go Elsewhere In Light Of China’s New 5% Tariff – MP3 audio -The trade war between the U.S. and China escalated over the weekend. At the G-7 meeting on Sunday, President Donald Trump claimed he could “declare a national emergency” over the trade war if he wanted to. And China’s currency, the yuan, hit an 11-year low on Friday following the Trump administration’s announcement of the latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods.But the trade war is also affecting the energy market. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures fell last week after China retaliated, slapping its own tariffs on American goods.Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, says this tit-for-tat dynamic puts U.S. oil exports in a precarious position.“With the announcement of this 5% tariff on U.S. crude going in [to China], that either means one of two things: either these guys have to pay up that 5% … or it has to find another destination, and China has to source their crude from elsewhere,” Smith says. “We’re gonna have to wait and see.”What you’ll hear in this segment:

• – How China’s new 5% tariff on U.S. crude oil could affect shipments already en route
• – Where U.S. suppliers can ship crude, besides China
• – Why new pipelines in Texas means even more U.S. oil is available for export

The public should have a say before anyone cuts a pipeline through the Texas Hill Country -- A few weeks ago, construction on the Mopac Expressway near Slaughter Lane in Austin came to an abrupt halt when the workers encountered a larger than normal karst feature. Karst features are essentially holes in the limestone underneath our feet that channel water from the surface into our underground aquifers. They stopped because construction around karst features has to be done carefully to ensure both that surface water can reach the aquifer and that the water isn’t contaminated on its way there. Any construction project that disturbs five acres or more of land in the Edwards Aquifer region requires coordination and permitting from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to protect our groundwater and karst features — except oil and gas projects, including pipelines. This is because of one section in the Texas Water Code that places jurisdiction over oil and gas activity under the Texas Railroad Commission instead of TCEQ. When these protections for the Edwards Aquifer were established in the 1990s, no one anticipated they’d need to apply to oil and gas. The region doesn’t produce fossil fuels, and no new pipeline had crossed the Hill Country and our vulnerable aquifers since the 1950s. But today, Kinder Morgan hopes to build a 42-inch pipeline across the Hill Country and the Edwards Aquifer, and those of us in the pathway are personally experiencing the state’s lack of oversight. Kinder Morgan is making all kinds of statements about safety and environmental protection and treating landowners decently. But here’s what they won’t tell you:

• There will be no state oversight to protect karst features during the construction of the Permian Highway Pipeline.
• While the company says its current plans are to only transport natural gas (which poses less water contamination risk than crude oil) in the Permian Highway Pipeline, nothing in the law prevents them from retrofitting the pipeline to transport crude oil or another liquid if they deem it profitable. This exacerbates concerns about groundwater, especially in light of recent leaks in the nearby Longhorn Pipeline.
• Kinder Morgan is taking a permanent 50-foot-wide easement with an additional 75 feet for a temporary construction easement. This means an up to 125-foot-wide swath will be cleared of trees for the length of the pipeline, and 50 feet of that will be kept permanently clear of large vegetation. That will constitute an unprecedented scar across the Hill Country.
• Instead of going through the standard U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service process and getting an individual permit for damaging critical habitat, Kinder Morgan is trying to take a shortcut by rolling its project into an existing nationwide permit that doesn’t address the specific ecological concerns of the Hill Country.
• There is no public process in Texas for determining where one of these large common carrier pipelines should go. The state gives these pipeline builders authority to take people’s land with no process to determine if the individual pipeline or the planned route makes sense. This is less transparency and accountability than what the state itself is required to do when building a road.
• There are no minimum standards for surface mediation after pipeline construction, and no oversight to ensure it was done correctly. If landowners want to protect the wildlife or agricultural value of their land with native seed or double trenching, they have to negotiate that into their easements with Kinder Morgan. If the company doesn’t live up to its end of the bargain, the landowners’ only option is to sue.

US Drillers Drop 11 Rigs - The U.S. dropped 11 oil rigs this week. The U.S. saw yet another week of rig declines, shedding 11 oil rigs, according to weekly data from Baker Hughes, a GE Company. This follows last week’s loss of a total of 19 oil and gas rigs. The number of current active rigs for the U.S. is now 904, which is 144 fewer than the count 1,048 a year ago. Several states lost rigs this week. They are: Texas (-5), Oklahoma (-2), Colorado (-1), Kansas (-1), Louisiana (-1), New Mexico (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), Utah (-1), and Wyoming (-1). North Dakota and Alaska added three rigs and one rig, respectively. Among the major basins, the Permian led for the second consecutive week with a loss of five rigs. However, at 429 active rigs, the Permian still accounts for almost half of the nation’s total. The following basins also shed rigs this week: DJ-Niobrara (-2); Ardmore Woodford (-1); Granite Wash (-1); Haynesville (-1); and Marcellus (-1). The Williston and Arkoma Woodford added three rigs and one rig, respectively.

Flaring, or Why So Much Gas Is Going Up in Flames: - If you take a drive along the well-worn highways of West Texas, orange flames will punctuate your journey. Those are gas flares, and they’re lighting up the skies above West Texas oilfields like never before as drillers produce crude faster than pipes can be laid to haul the attendant natural gas away. Oil drillers say flaring is the most environmentally friendly way to get rid of excess gas they can’t sell. Environmentalists say that in many cases what flaring is friendly to is oil drillers’ profits. They think regulators in states including Texas and North Dakota should be tougher on a practice thatharms air quality and contributes to climate change. When an oil well begins to spew, less-valuable natural gas comes up alongside crude. Pipelines can capture that gas, but when they’re not available, producers often get rid of the gas so they don’t have to stop pumping oil. They do that by either igniting the gas, in the case of flaring, or releasing it directly into air, known as venting. Flaring is preferred because methane, an especially potent greenhouse gas, is burned off, though carbon dioxide is released into the air. The World Bank estimated that globally in 2018,145 billion cubic meters of gas was flared, about as much as Central and South America use in a year. The amount is rising because of the oil boom in the U.S., which is fueled by the use of hydraulic fracturing — fracking — to unlock fuel from shale rock. Increased flaring in the U.S. is concentrated in the shale oil basins known as the Eagle Ford in Texas, the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, and the Bakken in North Dakota. Permian flaring rose about 85% last year, according to data from Oslo-based consultant Rystad Energy. The volume flared in Texas by the end of 2018 was greater than residential gas demand in the entire state.  The Texas Railroad Commission, the main oil and gas regulator in the state, has never denied a request for a flaring permit.  Gas flaring globally emits more than 350 million tons of carbon dioxide in a year, according to the World Bank. That’s the equivalent of the carbon emissions from 90 coal-fired power plants. In the U.S., flaring accounts for an estimated 9% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the oil and gas industry. In addition, the practice spews particulate matter, soot and toxins into the air that have been shown to be hazardous to humans.  Isn’t the gas worth something? The short answer is no, not in oil-dominated basins where what matters is the ability to keep pumping black gold. In the Permian, local gas prices have gone negative multiple times this year, meaning drillers were actually paying customers to haul their gas.

Permian State Faces Methane Test - Gushing shale production has brought boot-clad workers from all over the world to this Permian Basin city less than an hour north of the Texas border. White F-150s filled the parking lot of the Pecos River Cafe on a recent morning after a light rain lifted the smell of concrete cooked by days of triple-digit heat. Like a broad swath of West Texas, this sage-covered corner of New Mexico sits atop America's fastest-growing oilfield. On the Texas side, oil and gas producers can drill and frack with relatively few bureaucratic hurdles. In New Mexico, 90% of Permian production takes place on lands owned by federal or state government, meaning companies need additional approvals from either the U.S. Bureau of Land Management or the state’s Land Office and Oil Conservation Division. That sets up a classic test in a state that turned politically blue this year. New Mexico has to decide how far it’s willing to go with a proposed rule to limit methane emissions, a key part of the new Democratic governor’s efforts to fight climate change. She must balance concern for the environment with the possibility that stricter regulation could tap the brakes on accelerating production that, thanks to royalties and taxes, funds nearly half the state budget. Already, some drillers expect slower growth in Permian output. Cerny knows where she stands. Drilling “is good for the economy, it’s good for Carlsbad.” She said she worries that tighter rules could send companies packing across the border to Texas. It’s a topic getting special attention on this hot August morning. “We don’t want all these workers to leave,” said Rosemary Madsen, 64, a bartender at the Stevens Inn. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, a former congresswoman who took office this year, is spearheading one of the country’s most aggressive plans to combat climate change: a move to 100% carbon-free power generation in 25 years. Now she's targeting methane, the main component of natural gas and a greenhouse gas that’s far more potent than carbon dioxide. 

'Extraordinarily Harmful' Trump Rule Would Gut Restrictions on Methane Emissions - Amid dire scientific warnings that the international community must act immediately to slash greenhouse gas emissions, President Donald Trump's U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reportedly set to take another step in the opposite direction Thursday by unveiling a rule that would gut restrictions on the fossil fuel industry's methane pollution. According to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the proposed rule change Thursday, the EPA's plan would scrap regulations requiring the oil and gas industry to "install technologies that monitor and limit leaks from new wells, tanks and pipeline networks and to more frequently inspect for leaks.""It would also forestall legal requirements that would have forced the EPA to set rules on emissions from thousands of pre-existing wells and industry sites," the Journal reported.The Trump administration expects the rule, which must go through a 60-day public comment period, to take effect early next year. The rollback was immediately praised by the American Petroleum Institute, a major trade group representing the fossil fuel industry. Because of methane's potency — some estimates suggest the greenhouse gas has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide — environmentalists and scientists have warned the Trump administration's efforts to gut methane regulations could have disastrous consequences. "This is extraordinarily harmful," Rachel Kyte, United Nations special representative on sustainable energy,said of the Trump administration's proposed rule change. "Just at a time when the federal government's job should be to help localities and states move faster toward cleaner energy and a cleaner economy, just at that moment when speed and scale is what's at stake, the government is walking off the field." Trump administration officials, and the president himself, have gleefully touted the White House's success in ramping up American production of methane-emitting natural gas, which Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg infamously described as "molecules of U.S. freedom."During the G20 summit in Japan in June, Trump said he is "not willing" to take action to curb greenhouse gas emissions because such a move would harm corporate profits.A report published earlier this year by Oil Change International in collaboration with over a dozen other environmental groups warned that U.S. fossil fuel production has the potential to single-handedly imperil global efforts to combat the climate crisis.

Trump Admin Methane Proposal Spurs Mixed Industry Response -- The Trump administration is seeking to abandon regulations designed to stop methane leaks from oil and gas wells, a move opposed not just by environmentalists but even some energy companies that worry it will undermine the appeal of natural gas as climate-friendly fossil fuel. Although methane is the chief component of natural gas and therefore a valuable energy source in its own right, it is also a powerful heat-trapping pollutant. And the methane that escapes from pipelines, compressor stations and from oil wells has been blamed for as much as a quarter of the planet’s warming. The Trump EPA was already moving on a separate track to relax requirements put in place by the Obama administration that forced energy companies to use specialized equipment at wells and search out methane leaks at the sites. The new measure would go much further, by scrapping those mandates altogether. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said the proposal “removes unnecessary and duplicative regulatory burdens from the oil and gas industry.” “The Trump administration recognizes that methane is valuable, and the industry has an incentive to minimize leaks and maximize its use,” Wheeler said in an emailed news release. “Since 1990, natural gas production in the United States has almost doubled while methane emissions across the natural gas industry have fallen by nearly 15%. Our regulations should not stifle this innovation and progress.” Independent oil producers applauded the EPA’s move, which would short-circuit a legal requirement that similar methane curbs be imposed on a million existing wells, disproportionately affecting smaller companies. Under the EPA’s change, “hundreds of thousands of existing, small business-owned low-production wells wouldn’t be subject to inappropriate regulations” and be compelled “to use technology requirements” geared toward new facilities, said Lee Fuller, executive vice president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America.However, the EPA proposal comes against the wishes of several global energy companies, such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which have warned the administration’s retreat on methane threatens to undermine the sales pitch for natural gas as a source of electricity that burns cleaner than coal. Executives from both companies criticized the proposal Thursday.

Oklahoma Hub Drain Propels Crude in New York-- Crude in New York clung to gains as investors focused on depleting oil stockpile levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial oil depot in the U.S. Futures in New York climbed as much as 1.6% on Thursday, while Brent’s gain remained limited. Data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed stockpiles at the Cushing storage hub at the lowest level since December 2018 as the startup of new pipelines from the Permian help to relieve inventory pressure. These Permian conduits enable oil supplies to bypass Cushing and head straight for markets overseas, which is allowing WTI to rally and is holding back Brent, according to Michael Loewen, director of commodity strategy at Scotiabank. Crude futures in New York are poised for the biggest weekly gain since mid-July as U.S. government data this week showed declines in crude and fuel stockpiles. Investor sentiment has also improved as statements from China’s Commerce Ministry signaled the country wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase. President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. and China are scheduled to have a conversation about trade today. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery advanced 83 cents to $56.61 a barrel at 11:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are on track for a 4.5% rise this week. Brent for October settlement added 33 cents to $60.82 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $4.20 premium to WTI. Since the startup of Plains All American Pipeline LP’s Cactus II crude pipeline and EPIC Pipeline Co.’s line this quarter, Cushing stockpiles have drained around 12 million barrels. Meanwhile, domestic net crude imports for last week dropped to nearly half of what they were a year ago.

US oil and gas rig count drops by 11 to 987 — The US oil and gas rig count continued to drop Thursday and was down 11 to 987 on the week, as industry continues to wait for more data points to gauge its own uncertain trajectory amid oil prices that have stalled. Rig losses this week came almost entirely from the oil side which dropped 10 rigs week on week ended Wednesday, leaving 783. Rigs chasing natural gas remained steady at 199. There was also a net loss of one rig that was not classified as oil or gas. Most major basins fell by at least one rig or stood still, according to data supplied by Enverus' RigData segment. The biggest basin movements came in the SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma, down 4 to 66 and in South Texas' Eagle Ford Shale where the rig count fell 3 to 73. Colorado's Denver-Julesburg Basin lost 2 rigs, leaving 27. Losing one rig apiece were the Permian Basin of West Texas and southeast New Mexico, falling to 433, and the Wet Marcellus mostly sited in Pennsylvania, down to 19. Holding firm with last week were the Dry Marcellus, also mostly in Pennsylvania, at 29 rigs, and the Haynesville Shale in Northwest Louisiana and East Texas at 52. Two basins gained a rig - the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana, up to 58, and the Utica Shale mostly in Ohio, up to 16. Many observers predict the rig count will continue to drop as oil prices remain in the mid-$50s/b for WTI and around $60/b for Brent. E&P operators are meeting their production goals as they adhere to capital discipline pledges and devise better well completion techniques, and now seek ways to further pare expenses. Oil prices dropped a bit on average, according to Platts average assessments. WTI was down 75 cents this week to $54.75/b, while WTI Midland was down 84 cents to $54.67/b. The Bakken Composite price was down 53 cents to $48.27/b. "A drop in the oil-directed horizontal rig count last week ... should be closely watched as investors remain keenly focused on the needed rationing of upstream capital and the potential support this could lend to 2020 balances," Evercore ISI Group Stephen Richardson said in a late Wednesday note. Richardson added that the Baker Hughes rig count was down by 18 week on week, the second-largest weekly decline since early 2016. Baker Hughes uses Enverus RigData in its own rig count calculations.

Nebraska Supreme Court upholds route of controversial Keystone XL pipeline — The long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline cleared a legal hurdle in Nebraska on Friday, but other hurdles remain that could further delay or derail the $8 billion project. The Nebraska Supreme Court on Friday affirmed the route across Nebraska of the 36-inch crude oil pipeline, rejecting a lawsuit by pipeline opponents that maintained that the Nebraska Public Service Commission lacked the authority to approve an alternative route across the state. But three federal lawsuits in Montana still stand in the way of the start of construction, and the leader of an anti-pipeline group vowed to continue its 11-year fight. “We still have some tools (available),” said Jane Kleeb of Bold Nebraska. “We plan on making sure that this pipeline never touches our soil.” An oil industry observer, Mark LaCour, editor of Houston-based Oil and Gas Global Network, said Friday that he expects the Keystone XL to eventually be built because of the demand for the heavy crude oil that is pumped out of the tar sands region of western Canada. But exactly when that will happen is up in the air, he said. “There’s still a bunch of hurdles to jump through,” LaCour said, pointing to the federal lawsuits. He added that since the XL was first proposed in 2008, other pipelines have been built or upgraded to handle shipping demands from Canada. As a result, LaCour said he wouldn’t be surprised if the XL pipeline will be smaller when it’s built. Whether the company can begin construction next spring hinges on the outcome of the federal court cases. TC Energy had hoped to begin construction of the Keystone XL segment from Canada to a terminal at Steele City, Nebraska, this spring, but was delayed by the pending litigation. The Nebraska Supreme Court, in a 59-page opinion that was nine months in the making, ruled that the Public Service Commission’s selection of the “mainline alternative route” was in the public interest and that the commission had the authority to choose such an alternative.  The alternative route shifts the path eastward and aligns the XL with the existing Keystone pipeline for about 90 more miles. The commission ruled that the alternative route produced “many benefits,” including less impact on endangered whooping cranes, fewer river crossings and faster response times for potential leaks.

Colorado’s attorney general vows to sue Trump administration over methane rule rollbacks – Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser on Thursday vowed to sue the Trump administration over its decision to roll back methane rules aimed at curbing the release of potent greenhouse gases from oil and gas sites. The Environmental Protection Agency moved on Thursday to rescind the regulations, put in place under President Barack Obama and modeled after rules enacted by Colorado on the state level in 2014. Weiser, a Democrat, said in a written statement that “the EPA’s proposal to reverse these standards to curb methane emissions is misguided and ignores the requests from the oil and gas industry to keep them in place.” He argues that even though Colorado’s methane rules will remain in place, the effect of methane gas on the state from increased emissions elsewhere makes it imperative to challenge the rollback in court.  “Methane emissions don’t stop at state lines,” Wesier’s statement said. “As such, Colorado has a strong interest in regulating the release of this harmful greenhouse gas on a national level.”

PDC to buy Wattenberg peer SRC Energy for $1.7 billion, bulk up in Colorado shale — PDC Energy, a growing operator in two key US unconventional basins, moved to beef up its Wattenberg Field position in Colorado on Monday by agreeing to buy SRC Energy, a pure-play producer in the basin, for $1.7 billion in an all-stock deal. The transaction, which includes $685 million of SRC net debt, would make PDC the second-largest Denver-Julesburg Basin producer, with 166,000 b/d of oil equivalent, behind the former Anadarko Petroleum, acquired earlier this month by Occidental Petroleum, which has 301,000 boe/d."SRC's complementary, high-quality assets in the core Wattenberg, coupled with our existing inventory and track record of operational excellence will create a best-in-class operator with the size, scale and financial positioning to thrive in today's market," PDC CEO Bart Brookman said."We believe that this transaction will establish the combined company as a leader in the Colorado energy industry," said SRC CEO Lynn Peterson. "The transaction also provides SRC shareholders with the opportunity to participate in the significant upside potential created by a larger-scale DJ Basin producer with complementary assets in the prolific Delaware Basin."The acquisition, which is expected to close in Q4, comes with about 61,000 boe/d of SRC production across that company's 86,000 net acres in Weld County and about 306 million boe of oil and gas reserves.

North Dakota pledges improvement to spill reporting site (AP) — North Dakota’s Health Department for the second time this decade is pledging to provide easily accessible information on oilfield and agriculture-related spills, a move that comes after a liquid natural gas pipeline leak that was much bigger than publicly reported and could take another decade to clean up.According to records obtained by The Associated Press, the department logged more than 8,000 “reported releases” since 2014 but did not make public updates on a spill’s severity or its cleanup status.“We’re looking at how best to get that information to the public,” North Dakota Environmental Quality Chief Dave Glatt said Tuesday. “We are looking at revamping our webpage to let people search so they don’t have to ask us about it.” The agency came under criticism last week for disregarding its own policy in updating the volume of a pipeline spill at a natural gas processing plant in western North Dakota.In July 2015, Oneok Partners reported a 10-gallon (about 38 liters) spill of natural gas condensate from a pipeline at a plant near Watford City. The estimated size of the spill was never updated, even as Oneok updated the state on cleanup. In October, Oneok told the state it had recovered 240,000 gallons (about 908,000 liters) of the liquid gas.Glatt said a report should have been made public to reflect the severity of the spill.The larger-than-publicized spill was first reported by DeSmog, a blog dedicated to fighting climate change misinformation. It cited an unnamed person who provided a document that said the spill could be as large as 11 million gallons.

As abandoned oil wells climb, regulators consider ways to stop problem from worsening - The number of abandoned oil and gas wells in North Dakota has grown 10% over the past two years to more than 700 amid low oil prices, and state regulators are considering new rules to try to keep the problem from getting worse. “It’s starting to become out of control, and we want to rein this in,” Oil and Gas Division Assistant Director Bruce Hicks said Wednesday at a meeting of the state’s Industrial Commission. Officials say they don’t want to see North Dakota face the same challenges as other states such as Pennsylvania. A 160-year legacy of oil and gas drilling there has led to hundreds of thousands of abandoned wells and complaints from regulators that the cost of plugging and reclaiming the sites falls to the state. The Industrial Commission on Wednesday advanced a series of draft rules surrounding abandoned wells for public comment and scheduled hearings for October. The changes come as part of a package of updates to state rules on numerous oil and gas issues. Among the changes under consideration, the Oil and Gas Division is proposing that abandoned wells sold by one company to another must be fully bonded by the purchaser. Companies sometimes buy abandoned wells and could decide to restart them one day under the right conditions, like higher oil prices. A bond is an assurance of money to pay for plugging and reclamation should the company abandon a well site and ignore its responsibility to clean it up. Hicks said some companies with “junk” wells in North Dakota have tried to unload them by selling them to another operator. “They’re wells that are not economic, and another company picks it up, and it’s a tremendous liability,” he said.

Standing Rock requests to intervene in proposed DAPL expansion decision - The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe on Wednesday requested to intervene as the North Dakota Public Service Commission considers approvals for a new pump station to help send more oil through the Dakota Access Pipeline. As an intervenor, the tribe would be able to call witnesses and cross-examine pipeline developer Energy Transfer at a public hearing Nov. 13 in Linton. The Standing Rock Reservation is located less than a half-mile from the pipeline's Missouri River crossing. "DAPL’s proposed pipeline expansion magnifies the potential disaster in the event of an oil spill," Standing Rock Chairman Mike Faith said. "The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe looks forward to expressing its concerns during the upcoming PSC hearing." Energy Transfer is proposing to nearly double the capacity of its pipeline to carry 1.1 million barrels of oil per day by adding pump stations in North Dakota and South Dakota, as well as in Illinois. The company wants to build one of those stations on 21 acres 5 miles west of Linton. The facility would extend beyond the pipeline's existing footprint permitted by the PSC in 2016.

Conclusions of oil-by-rail study encourages ND officials seeking to overturn Washington law - A federal study examining the volatility of Bakken oil is giving North Dakota officials encouragement in their petition to overturn a Washington state law that targets oil train shipments. A study completed by Sandia National Laboratories concluded this month that “vapor pressure is not a statistically significant factor” in determining the fiery characteristics of oil train crashes. “The net result is Bakken oil is no different than any other kind of oil with respect to volatility,” Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said. Over the past few years as trains carrying Bakken crude have derailed and erupted in fireballs, oil from North Dakota has come under scrutiny for having a high vapor pressure. Washington state passed a law earlier this year placing a cap on the vapor pressure allowed in oil unloaded from trains. The restriction would limit the ability of refiners there to accept oil from North Dakota. Stenehjem and Montana’s attorney general last month submitted a petition to the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration requesting the agency overturn Washington’s law. Speaking at a meeting of the state’s Industrial Commission on Wednesday, Stenehjem said the study “vastly undermines the reasoning behind the state of Washington enacting this statute because they assume without evidence that Bakken oil is more volatile.” Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s office said in a statement that the state will defend its law. Officials plan to submit comments to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. “Every governor has a responsibility and a right to protect the health and safety of their communities and environment,” spokeswoman Tara Lee said. “As Washington has experienced an enormous spike in the numbers of oil trains traveling through our state, this legislation is a reasonable approach to anticipated increased volumes of volatile crude oil.”

California attorney general slams EPA over emissions rollback - The Trump administration plans to roll back regulations on leaks of natural gas from wells, pipelines and other equipment, a move that could significantly increase emissions that cause global warming.The plan announced Thursday by the Environmental Protection Agency would eliminate rules on methane emissions that even some major oil and gas companies have told the administration should be kept in place. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is an extremely powerful greenhouse gas, as much as 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in its impact on the climate, according to some estimates, although it breaks down relatively quickly in the atmosphere. Leaks from equipment and pipelines release it into the atmosphere. Environmental groups and other administration critics sharply denounced the move, which marked the administration’s latest effort to dismantle Obama-era environmental regulations that were put in place to confront climate change.“The Trump EPA is eager to give the oil and gas industry a free pass to keep leaking enormous amounts of climate pollution into the air. We simply cannot protect our children and grandchildren from climate catastrophe if EPA lets this industry off scot-free. If EPA moves forward with this reckless and sinister proposal, we will see them in court,” David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council said in a statement Thursday.California Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra called the EPA proposal a “monumentally stupid decision” and said that the state, which has already sued the Trump administration at least 49 times over environmental policy issues, was “ready to fight this senseless decision.” The oil and gas industry is the primary source of methane emissions in the U.S., accounting for nearly one-third of all emissions in 2016, according to the EPA. 

Natural gas soon to be outlawed in almost all new Menlo Park buildings - At the front line of a growing movement to fight climate change, Menlo Park will be ushering in one of the most restrictive natural gas bans in California. By Jan. 1, 2020, heating systems in all new homes and buildings in the city must run on electricity, and all new commercial, office and industrial buildings, as well as high-rise residences, must rely entirely on electricity, the Menlo Park City Council decided Tuesday night. Although new one- and two-story homes will be allowed to have natural gas stoves, they must be built “electric ready” with the proper wiring to enable all-electric operation in the future. The council’s decision, to be adopted through an official vote at its next meeting on Sept. 10, comes about a month after Berkeley became the first city in America to ban natural gas from new buildings entirely. “When we put this into our council priorities, I actually expected this to be a tougher meeting,” Mayor Ray Mueller said during Tuesday night’s meeting. “…It’s really great to see everyone coming together and trying to make this work.” Menlo Park is among more than 50 California communities considering radical measures — known formally as “reach codes” — to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions by exceeding the state’s mandated steps toward that goal. About 10 residents voiced their opinions on the proposed ban at Tuesday night’s council meeting. While all supported phasing out natural gas, most urged the council to go further than the ordinance staff had proposed. Only one person encouraged the council to adopt a less restrictive ordinance.

State Launches Probe Into Oil Field Spills – Including One That's Been Flowing Since 2003 -- (see video) State oil and gas regulators say they're launching an investigation of operations in a Kern County oil field after a series of large, uncontrolled crude petroleum releases near Chevron wells — including one that has continued on and off for more than 16 years and may have spewed out more than 50 million gallons of crude oil. The state Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources, known as DOGGR, served Chevron with a notice of violation on Friday, ordering the company to stop major, uncontrolled surface flows at a site called Gauge Setting 5, or GS-5, in the Cymric oil field. Oil has been flowing from the location since March 2003. The order comes as DOGGR says it's stepping up enforcement of a regulation that took effect in April banning the uncontrolled surface flows, which the agency and petroleum operators call "surface expressions." One such release occurred over the last three months near a damaged and abandoned Chevron well in an area of the Cymric oil field designated 1Y. The flows in that incident, which began in May and stopped earlier this month, dumped about 400,000 gallons of crude into a dry creek bed. DOGGR has issued two notices of violation so far in connection with the 1Y episode, the precise origin of which is still under investigation. 'Putting an End' to Surface Expressions In an email Sunday, agency spokeswoman Theresa Schilling said that in light of the April rules barring surface expressions, "DOGGR is looking to put an end to their occurrence." Schilling also acknowledged that the driving force behind the surface expressions is an oil extraction method that Chevron and other operators in the Cymric field rely on. The roughly 11,000-acre Cymric field, in the Temblor Range foothills about 35 miles west of Bakersfield, is the scene of extensive steam injection operations— a technique in which high-pressure steam is forced deep into the ground to free oil trapped in underground formations. Normally, that freed crude petroleum is pumped to the surface through well bores and shipped by pipelines or tankers for processing. But that's not what's been happening around the leaking Chevron wells, where crude oil, steam and water have apparently moved laterally underground until they find a vent or create a sinkhole that allows the material to come to the surface. "The steam injection wells are the source of heat and pressure that drive surface expressions," Schilling said Sunday. But she added that further investigation is needed to understand exactly how that underground heat and pressure is resulting in the surface flows.

California orders halt to oil spill flowing since 2003 (AP) — California state regulators say they're making new attempts to stop persistent oil spills in the oil-rich Central Valley, including one that has been flowing intermittently for 16 years and may have spilled more than 50 million gallons (189 million liters). The problems stem from the production method used in the oil field about 35 miles (55 kilometers) west of Bakersfield, where steam is injected into the ground to soften the thick crude oil. It is a different process from fracking, which breaks up underground layers of rock. It's blamed for a surface flow of crude oil since May from near a Chevron well into a dry creek bed. State regulators have now served Chevron with a notice of violation ordering it to halt surface flows at a second site, this one flowing off and on since 2003, KQED News reported Monday. The two sites are about 1,500 feet (460 meters) apart. Officials at the state Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources, known as DOGGR, said it's part of a broader effort to enforce a regulation that took effect in April and bans such surface flows. "DOGGR is looking to put an end to their occurrence," division spokeswoman Theresa Schilling told KQED in an email. The division "is exploring swift next steps to evaluate and investigate the oil field as a whole," including bringing in independent experts. Gov. Gavin Newsom fired the previous head of DOGGR in July over a recent increase in hydraulic fracturing permits and amid a conflict-of-interest investigation of other division employees. Chevron spokeswoman Veronica Flores-Paniagua said in a statement that the company's goal is "the prevention of all seeps" including the one flowing for more than a decade. But she said there has been no harm from that surface flow to people, groundwater, surface water, wildlife or agriculture. The flow has been going on so long that Chevron built a collection facility in 2012. Spilled oil is pumped into a pipeline or sucked up by vacuum trucks. Chevron said about 84 million gallons (318 million liters) have flowed since 2003, of which about 60% to 80% is crude. The rest is water from steam, but the company's lower estimate means about 51 million gallons of oil has spilled. State regulators said in an email Monday to The Associated Press that the flow "is fully confined to a concrete containment structure and the area is actively vacuumed out by Chevron. This expression is several miles from any community and does not pose a threat to drinking water. Additionally, appropriate actions have been taken to protect the health and safety of workers and the community, as well as the wildlife and the environment." Regulators ordered Chevron to stop injecting steam into the ground near the spills, among other steps.

State Says It Has No Idea How Long It Will Take to Clean Up Chevron's Kern County Oil Spill -State regulators say they don't know how long it will take for crews to clean up contaminated soil from a Kern County creek bed in the wake of the biggest California oil spill in decades.While the massive release of crude petroleum from a Chevron oil well near the town of McKittrick seems to have ended, the timeline for hauling away soil contaminated by the spill is unclear. "The full extent of the required site remediation is not known at this time and will be fully scoped with appropriate regulatory agencies," Eric Laughlin, a spokesman for the state Department of Fish and Wildlife, said in an email Thursday.State officials say the flow of crude oil and water stopped on Aug. 2. Chevron says 1.34 million gallons of oil and water have been recovered in the area since the spill began in early May. About 30 percent of that total, about 400,000 gallons, was petroleum.For weeks, contractors have been hauling away contaminated soil from the site and taking it to San Joaquin Valley dumps -- including two facilities that handle hazardous waste. Recently posted drone video (below) suggests the job is far from complete.The footage gives a detailed view of the roughly 1,000 feet of stream bed that was fouled after oil began flowing to the surface near a damaged Chevron well in the Cymric oil field, 35 miles west of Bakersfield. The most recent footage, from earlier this week, shows heavy equipment continuing to work on an extensive section of the oil-soaked channel.A Kern County environmental activist called the video "eye-opening". "This just shows a different perspective of ... what we're dealing with here locally," Gustavo Aguirre Jr., a Bakersfield project coordinator at Central California Environmental Justice Network, said after viewing the footage. "You see the flow of this toxic crude and wastewater. God knows what it has in it."

Oregon regulators flag violations at Zenith oil terminal - The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has sent a warning letter flagging violations at the Zenith Energy oil terminal in Portland.The company moves crude oil from rail cars to storage tanks and outbound ships in Portland’s northwest industrial district. The facility has drawn fierce opposition from environmental groups and the company has been criticized for hiding its plans to offload and ship diluted bitumen, a form of crude oil that comes from tar sands in Canada and is more complicated and expensive to clean up after a spill.According to a warning letter sent earlier this month, oil spill prevention officials with DEQ recently found several of the company’s storage tanks haven’t been inspected in more than five years, putting the facility behind schedule under the industry standard Zenith agreed to follow to comply with state law.  “Failure to conduct regular testing of tanks and associated piping can increase the probability of spills that may have been preventable,” the letter states. “DEQ is concerned that additional tanks may be out of compliance with their inspection schedule including several tanks which are long overdue for inspection but not listed as out of service.” Officials also found the person the company appointed to be in charge of its oil spill response plan lives about four hours away.“A lot happens in the first couple hours of a spill,” said Scott Smith, the DEQ emergency response planner who wrote the warning letter. “We need to have someone at the facility who’s going to be local and say this is exactly what’s going on. We need those eyes in the field.”

Jordan Cove opponents worry about federal surveillance - The Douglas County Sheriff's Office isn't involved in monitoring anti-Jordan Cove Energy Project activists' social media accounts, according to Brad O'Dell, spokesman for the Sheriff's Office. The project, which is owned by Canadian energy company Pembina, includes the construction of a 229-mile natural gas pipeline through Southern Oregon to a proposed export terminal in Coos Bay, where liquified natural gas would be shipped markets primarily in Asia. The pipeline would cross 64 miles of public, private and tribal land in Douglas County. Landowners and environmental groups have used social media to organize against the project since it was first proposed more than a decade ago. On Aug. 8, London-based newspaper The Guardian published a story describing an effort by federal, state and local law enforcement agencies to monitor public social media posts by groups, individuals and Native American tribes who oppose the pipeline. Civil liberties groups and landowner advocates say the monitoring might violate surveillance laws. Attorneys say they're seeking more information from government agencies to determine whether to take legal action. According to Oregon law, no law enforcement agency may collect or maintain information about people or groups unless such information directly relates to an investigation of criminal activities, and there are reasonable grounds to suspect the subject of the information may be involved in criminal conduct. Oregon State Police take a banner from protesters with the group Southern Oregon Rising Tide, which opposes the proposed liquified natural gas pipeline and Jordan Cove export terminal in Southern Oregon. They briefly interrupted Gov. Kate Brown near the end of her inaugural speech at the Oregon State Capital on Jan. 14, 2019, shouting “stop the pipeline.” Oregon State Police take a banner from protesters with the group Southern Oregon Rising Tide, which opposes the proposed liquified natural gas pipeline and Jordan Cove export terminal in Southern Oregon. They briefly interrupted Gov. Kate Brown near the end of her inaugural speech at the Oregon State Capital on Jan. 14, 2019, shouting “stop the pipeline.” Activists say they’re unnerved by the monitoring. “Landowners are incensed, especially if we find out that we’re on some kind of list,” said Stacey McLaughlin, a Douglas County landowner who has been an outspoken critic of the project for years. “I don’t think we’re going to let it stand. There’s been enough oppression of the people who are opposing this project.”

SHALE STOCK CARNAGE: August Was A Bad Month For Frackers --August turned out to be a terrible month for shale stocks.  Several of the shale companies suffered huge single-day price declines at the beginning of the month due to poor earnings.  Unfortunately, for investors, I believe this is just the beginning for more bad news and lower stock prices in the shale industry over the next few years.While many of the shale stocks took a shellacking in August, the major oil companies held up relatively well, even though oil price declined about $5.  For example, ExxonMobil’s stock price was only down 9%, based on an 8% drop in the oil price. Below, we can see that Whiting Petroleum was hit hard the most, by losing 63% of its value since the beginning of the month, followed by Oasis, (-44%), Concho (-30%), Laredo (-27%), and Continental Resources (-26%): So, we can clearly see that Continental Resources, the best of the worst in the group, saw it’s stock price fell nearly three times more in percentage terms versus ExxonMobil.  Thus, the shale stocks continue to underperform against the major oil companies.And, if we look at a longer-term chart, the situation for many of these stocks looks like it has gone from BAD to HORRIBLE:This chart shows the change in the stock performance of these companies since their peaks in 2014.  ExxonMobil is on the top showing that it is down 13% since 2014. However, the biggest LOSERS are Whiting (-97%), Oasis (-93%), and Laredo (-90%).Whiting Petroleum’ stock before the company issued a 1-4 Reverse Split, was trading at a high of $90 in 2014.  Today the stock closed at $6.78.  But, if we remove the 1-4 reverse split, the stock is truly only worth $1.69, based on that $90 price in 2014.  If we look at the chart today, the reverse split pushed Whiting’s stock price up to $360 in 2014…LOL.

Recession Alarm- Crude Processing At US Refiners Falls The Most Since Financial Crisis - There are more signs the US economy is rapidly deteriorating. This time it's coming from the energy sector.A new report from Reuters' Senior Market Analyst John Kemp reveals how US refiners have cut the volume of crude processed this year to levels not seen in a decade as fuel stockpiles remain at elevated levels, suggesting a manufacturing and freight re cession could be materializing.US refineries slashed an average of 247,000 barrels per day since January 2019 compared with the same period in 2018, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).In the latest EIA report titled "Weekly petroleum status report," Kemp said YTD processing rates have fallen for the first time since 2011, and by the most since the recession of 2008/09. Refinery crude consumption has dropped by 56 million barrels so far compared with the same period in 2018.Kemp noted that refiners cut processing volumes during the regular maintenance season in March and April and have never recovered since.And here's evidence that the consumer could be weakening even though fuel prices and interest rates remain low: "Processing has remained at or below prior-year rates throughout the summer driving season, normally the highest demand of the year," Kemp said.This could suggest that manufacturing and freight slowdowns are starting to have spillover effects on consumer spending habits.

Can Trump Re-Industrialize America Without Blowing-Up The World? Kunstler - - What’s at stake in all these international confabs like the G-7 are the tenuous supply lines that keep the global game going. The critical ones deliver oil around the world. China imports about 10 million barrels a day to keep its operations going. It produces less than 4 million barrels a day. Only about 15 percent of its imports come from next door in Russia. The rest comes from the Middle East, Africa, and South America. Think: long lines of tanker ships traveling vast distances across the seas, navigating through narrow straits. The Chinese formula is simple: oil in, exports out. It has worked nicely for them in recent decades. Things go on until they don’t.  That game is lubricated by a fabulous stream of debt generated by Chinese banks that ultimately answer to the Communist Party. The party is the Chinese buffer between banking and reality. If the party doesn’t like the distress signals that the banks give off, it just pretends the signals are not coming through, while it does the hokey-pokey with its digital accounting, and things appear sound a while longer. The US produces just over 12 million barrels of oil a day. About 6.5 million of our production is shale oil. We use nearly 20 million a day. (We’re not “energy independent.”) The shale oil industry is wobbling under the onerous debt load that it has racked up since 2005. About 90 percent of the companies involved in shale oil lose money. The capital costs for drilling, hauling a gazillion truckloads of water and fracking sand to the rig pads, and sucking the oil out, exceed the profit from doing all that. It’s simply all we can do to keep the game going in our corner of the planet, but it’s not a good business model. After you’ve proved conclusively that you can’t make a buck at this using borrowed money, the lenders will quit lending you more money. That’s about where we are now. Europe is near the end of its North Sea oil bonanza and there’s nothing in the on-deck circle for them. Germany tried to prove that they could run the country on “renewables” and that experiment has flopped. They have no idea what they’re going to do to keep the game going in their patch of nations. They must be freaking out in their charming capital cities. The next economic bust is going to amount to the crack-up of the oil age, and the “global economy” that emerged in its late stage. It was all about moving fantastic quantities of things around the planet. The movements were exquisitely tuned, along with the money flows that circulated freely, like blood carrying oxygen to each organ. All of that is coming to an end. The nations of the world must be feeling desperate, despite the appearance of good manners at meetings like the G-7. What’s at stake for everybody in the dark background is the ability to maintain high standards of living only recently attained. And the fear behind that is not knowing just how far backward these high standards of living may have to slide.

Feds take step to advance big ConocoPhillips prospect - Anchorage Daily News - The Trump administration has chosen a preferred development plan for a big ConocoPhillips project that could significantly boost Alaska oil production, according to an environmental report unveiled Friday for public comment.The Willow project in the northeastern National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska could produce up to 130,000 barrels of oil daily, if developed, according to a draft environmental report released by the Bureau of Land Management. Alaska oil production is averaging about 500,000 barrels of oil daily this year.About 375 workers would be employed annually for a nine-year construction period starting in 2020, on average. The project could last 30 years, producing about 590 million barrels of oil, the report says.The company’s plan, an option preferred by the agency, calls for five drill sites linked by seven bridges, an airstrip, 38 miles of gravel roads, and a central processing facility where crude oil would be prepared for shipment. It would include 267 miles of individual pipeline, and an application with the state for construction of a temporary gravel sea island for barges delivering building materials.Oil production would begin in late 2024. The state would collect $1.7 billion in taxes, plus $2.5 billion in royalties related to the NPR-A impact mitigation fund, where the primary objective is providing grants tovillages in the region and the North Slope Borough. The federal government would collect $4.4 billion in taxes and royalties, and the borough $1.9 billion in property taxes. Conservation groups swiftly condemned the Willow project on Friday. Audubon Alaska said development would affect migrating caribou, fish, nesting yellow-billed loons and Alaska Native subsistence hunters.

Alaska Well Sets Onshore Record - An undisclosed supermajor reportedly has set an onshore North American drilling record for longest extended-reach well, Houston-based technology startup Corva reported Friday. The undisclosed international oil and gas producer drilled a 32,468-foot (9,896-meter) well in July in the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska’s North Slope, according to Corva, whose real-time drilling and completion analytics technology was used during the operation. Extreme torque and pressure conditions create complex challenges to drilling long lateral wellbores. Corva noted the North Slope operator used real-time analytics to monitor and respond to hazardous conditions while drilling and tripping pipe – the critical process of removing and replacing the entire drill string. Although longer extended-reach horizontal wells maximize wellbore distance through a producing pay zone and enhance production and economic return, long horizontal well sections create extreme torque and drag conditions, Corva explained in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. Such conditions strain a drilling rig’s operational limits and can lead to a drill string break or other catastrophic events, the firm stated. According to Corva, the Alaska operator used a mobile torque and drag (T&D) application to avoid the time-consuming process of manually plotting T&D conditions by automating data collection and analysis while drilling. Monitoring hole conditions in real-time enabled the drilling team to rapidly adjust weight on bit and torque transfer as needed to prevent stuck pipe and twist-offs, the tech firm continued. Also, the app reportedly provided higher torque and drag data frequency while tripping-in casing, allowing the crew to quickly identify trends and spot deteriorating hole conditions.

 BP Leaving Alaska - BP plc reported Tuesday that it has agreed to sell all of its operations and interests in Alaska to Hilcorp for $5.6 billion, ending a six-decade run in the state. With the deal, Anchorage-based Hilcorp Alaska – already the largest private operator in the state – will gain ownership of BP’s interests in high-profile upstream and midstream assets such as the giant Prudhoe Bay field and the Trans Alaska Pipeline (TAPS). “Alaska has been instrumental in BP’s growth and success for well over half a century and our work there has helped shape the careers of many throughout the company,” BP CEO Bob Dudley said in a written statement. “We are extraordinarily proud of the world-class business we have built, working alongside our partners and the State of Alaska, and the significant contributions it has made to Alaska’s economy and America’s energy security.” Nevertheless, Dudley added that other opportunities in the U.S. and internationally “are more closely aligned with our long-term strategy and more competitive for our investment.” Hilcorp’s $5.6 billion acquisition will comprise $4 billion payable in the near term and $1.6 billion through a subsequent earnout, BP stated. In addition, BP noted the transaction – part of its plan to divest $10 billion in assets through 2020 – should close next year and is subject to state and federal regulatory approval. BP also stated that it is “committed to providing clarity … as soon as possible” about the future of the approximately 1,600 employees associated with BP Alaska. For 2019, BP expects its net Alaska oil production to approach 74,000 barrels per day. In addition to its 26-percent interest in the Prudhoe Bay oil field that it operates, BP owns non-operating interests in the producing Milne Point (50 percent) and Point Thomson (32 percent) fields, the shallow-water Liberty Energy Project off the North Slope (50 percent) and exploration lease interests in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), the company noted. Besides its shares in TAPS, BP operates the Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. and holds stakes in the Milne Point and Point Thomson pipelines. Hilcorp, which operates more than 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of gross production in Alaska, purchased interests from BP in four operated North Slope oilfields five years ago, BP added. The fields include Endicott, North Star, Milne Point and Liberty.

BP's Selling Off Its Alaska Oil Assets. The Buyer Has a History of Safety Violations. - One of Alaska's biggest oil producers—BP—announced Tuesday that it is selling all of its Alaska operations to Hilcorp, a privately-owned company with a troubled safety and environmental track-record.The $5.6 billion sale includes BP's stakes in the Trans Alaska Pipeline and the Prudhoe Bay oil field, one of the nation's largest and once its most productive oil field, which BP currently operates.Hilcorp is a relatively new player in Alaska's oil and gas industry. The Houston-based company's business strategy has been to purchase older oil and gas fields and try to make them profitable—a track-record experts say it hopes to repeat with its new acquisitions. Since entering Alaska in 2012, Hilcorp has rapidly expanded across the state, from the underwater gas fields in Cook Inlet to the oil fields along the North Slope.As it has done so, it has amassed a long list of safety and environmental violations. Among the most egregious incidents: three workers were nearly killed in an accident in 2015; a methane leak from an underwater pipeline was not stopped for months in 2017; and in late 2018, an oilfield worker was killed at Milne Point on the North Slope. The company's litany of violations led to unusually strong language from state regulators, who wrote in a letter to Hilcorp in 2015 saying that a disregard for regulatory compliance was "endemic to Hilcorp's approach to its Alaska operations," and that "Hilcorp's conduct is inexcusable.""Hilcorp has had a terrible record during its time in Alaska," said Lois Epstein, an engineer and Arctic Program director at The Wilderness Society. "None of those things should have happened." In the most recent of those incidents, a 36-year-old contract worker, Shawn Huber, was killed when he was struck by a drilling pipe while working on a drilling rig. Hilcorp owned 50 percent of the Milne Point facility and was the main operator at the time of the accident. With the sale announced Tuesday, it becomes the full owner and operator. The sale also includes BP's 50 percent share in the Liberty Project, an ambitious plan to construct a gravel island five miles off Alaska's northern coast for drilling rigs and production facilities. A reservoir there holds an estimated 150 million barrels of oil, but the project has proven to be more complicated and costly than BP expected when it began the permitting process two decades ago. That project is awaiting final permits related to its oil spill contingency plan. According to the Liberty Development and Production Plansubmitted by Hilcorp in 2014, a worst-case accident there could initially spill more than 90,000 barrels a day into a remote location that is covered with ice most of the year.

Hilcorp sale will cost state $30 million annually in lost revenue, former tax officials say - Two former directors of Alaska’s tax division and a former state legislator say a gap in Alaska’s corporate income tax system could cost the state millions in lost revenue once a new multibillion-dollar deal between Hilcorp and BP is finalized.The loss could be more than $30 million per year, said Ken Alper, director of the state’s tax division under former Gov. Bill Walker.“This is a big deal,” Alper said.Under Alaska’s existing corporate income tax system, publicly traded corporations are taxed. Privately held corporations are not. On Tuesday, Hilcorp — which calls itself the “largest privately owned oil and natural gas producer in the United States” — announced that it will buy the Alaska assets of BP, a publicly traded London-based company.Dan Dickinson, tax division director under multiple governors before Alper, said of the four types of state levies on oil production — property taxes, production taxes, royalties and corporate income taxes — the income tax is the most likely to change significantly as a result of Tuesday’s announcement. While Alaska does not have a personal income tax, it collects money — just as the federal government does — from many corporations. Limited liability corporations and “S corporations” (so-called after a particular part of IRS tax code) with fewer than 75 shareholders are not taxed, according to a 2004 explanation from the nonpartisan Legislative Research Service.

AMLO Says Pipeline Deal to Save $4.5B-- A deal that will save Mexico $4.5 billion has been reached with with three pipeline companies to carry natural gas throughout the country, according to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Carlos Slim’s Grupo Carso SAB was the first to reach agreement with the country’s Federal Electricity Commission, or CFE, Lopez Obrador said during his morning news conference on Tuesday. Sempra Energy’s Mexico unit IEnova and Canada’s TC Energy Corp. then “acted responsibly” by also agreeing to contracts, the president said. The highest profile project -- IEnova and TC Energy’s $2.5 billion Sur de Texas Tuxpan marine conduit -- will be the first in operation, CFE Chief Manuel Bartlett said at the news conference. Lopez Obrador said it would come online in about a week. The tariff rate on the pipeline was reduced by 33% to 38%, while the rate reduction for some of the other contracts was between 19% and 32%, said Miguel Reyes, a director at CFEnergia. Fermaca Enterprises is still in talks with the state-owned power company. “In the end, the silver lining of this is there’s an improved level of communication” with business leaders, said economist Rogelio Ramirez de la O, who advised Lopez Obrador in his 2006 presidential campaign. What’s changed, he said, “is that contracts need to have the best interest of Mexico.” Ienova shares rose 5.3% after the announcement, their biggest gain since January. Shares of Grupo Carso also rose 1.7%. At the heart of the months-long dispute are seven take-or-pay contracts signed with the previous administration that saw CFE covering the cost of natural gas that was never delivered due to force majeures caused by permitting problems and social conflicts. CFE had threatened the companies with arbitration proceedings for at least $3 billion. The agreement extends the contracts for the Guaymas El Oro and Sur de Texas Tuxpan pipelines by 10 years and “puts an end to the international arbitration processes of the designated pipelines,” IEnova said in a statement.

Pipeline Deal Means More U.S. Natural Gas for Mexico Power Plants  Mexico is preparing to import more U.S. natural gas to supply the country’s gas-fired power plants and industrial facilities after the Mexican government reached a deal that will allow several stalled pipeline projects to be completed. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador on Aug. 27 said his administration’s deal with Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy; IEnova, a Mexican subsidiary of San Diego, California–based utility company Sempra Energy; and Mexican construction firm Grupo Carso ends a $3 billion stalemate over contracts for a handful of pipelines that will bring natural gas to Mexico from the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas and the Permian Basin of West Texas.Grupo Carso is owned by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. He said Tuesday that the agreement will give Mexico access to cheap natural gas, some of which can be used to further the development of natural gas-fueled vehicles in Mexico.“This will allow us to substitute diesel and gasoline, which are not only more expensive but more polluting,” Slim said. “Natural gas is one-third the cost but there are also environmental benefits.”The deal comes one month after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sent a letter to Lopez-Obrador asking the Mexican president to end the political stalemate around the pipelines. Abbott said the deal was needed to get more natural gas moving from Texas to Mexico.  Sener, Mexico’s Ministry of Energy, earlier this year said the country expects to add an estimated 29,294 MW of combined-cycle gas-fired power generation capacity over the next 15 years. The forecast was published in Sener’s 2019-2033 Prodesen power sector development plan. Prodesen is the Program for the Development of the National Electrical System, which was introduced in 2015. The projected capacity additions are up slightly from the forecast of 28,105 MW for the 2018–2032 period outlined in last year’s Prodesen plan under the previous Nieto administration. Sener is required to update the Prodesen document each year.

UK fracking site experiences second tremor in a week - The UK’s only active fracking site experienced a magnitude-1.05 tremor on Friday night. It came two days after a magnitude-1.55 tremor, which was the largest ever tremor at the site run by Cuadrilla in Preston New Road, Lancashire. Friday’s tremor was detected at 11.22pm. The company said it lasted for less than a second. Cuadrilla said: “The measured vibration at ground level during the event was approximately 0.4 mm/s. This micro-seismicity followed today’s pumping operations. The integrity of the well has been confirmed.” A smaller 0.53-magnitude tremor occurred just after 5am on Saturday and also lasted for less than a second, the company added. Fracking was temporarily stopped at the Cuadrilla site after Wednesday’s tremor. Pausing work for 18 hours is the routine response for any tremor over 0.5 magnitude. A Cuadrilla spokesman said on Thursday that most people who lived near the Preston New Road facility would not have noticed Wednesday’s movement, which would have felt similar to someone dropping a large bag of shopping on the floor. He said: “Minor movements of this level are to be expected and are way below anything that can cause harm or damage to anyone or their property,” he said. Labour’s shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long Bailey, has called for fracking to be banned, saying it causes air and water pollution and contributes to climate change. Environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth said that in 60 days of fracking last year there were 57 tremors in Lancashire and that it could not be carried out without triggering earthquakes. Jamie Peters, a campaigner for the organisation, said: “Even small vibrations at ground level can be the sign of far more damaging impacts deep underground.”

Offshore UK Forecasted to Support 10K More Jobs in 2019 -The offshore UK oil and gas industry is forecasted to support around 10,000 more jobs in 2019, a new report from industry body Oil & Gas UK (OGUK) has revealed. Total supported employment - including direct, indirect and induced jobs - is estimated to rise for the first time since 2014 to hit 269,100 this year, according to the report, which was released on Friday. The offshore UK oil and gas industry supported a total of 259,900 jobs in 2018, OGUK’s report highlighted. This figure marked a five percent drop on 2017, the report revealed. From 2016 to 2017, this figure dropped 14 percent. In 2018, 56 percent of total industry employment was based in England, 39 percent was located in Scotland, and four and one percent was situated in Wales and Northern Ireland, respectively, the report revealed. Fifteen percent of the workforce was aged below 30 in 2018, which was a decrease from 2017, and women represented three percent of the offshore workforce last year, according to the report.

Dutch to end Groningen gas production quicker than predicted: minister -  (Reuters) - The Dutch government will end production at the vast Groningen natural gas field sooner than previously announced, Dutch Economy Minister Eric Wiebes said on Tuesday. “I expect the Groningen field to no longer be necessary very soon”, Wiebes said in an interview on Dutch public radio. “Things are moving very fast, a lot faster than anyone would have predicted some time ago.” Output at Europe’s largest onshore gas field, operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp, has been slashed in recent years as tremors blamed on drilling have damaged buildings and sparked unrest in the region. Following a 3.4 magnitude earthquake, the government vowed last year to halt output at Groningen by 2030 and lower production as quickly as possible in the coming years. Wiebes indicated on Tuesday the end of extraction would come a lot sooner than by the end of the next decade and said he would inform parliament soon on the exact date. “We used to think that production would go on forever, then I said it would end by 2030, and I will soon say when it will end exactly”, the minister said.

Will Europe Ever Shake Its Dependence On Russian Energy? - Much of the current discourse over Europe’s economic “independence” has revolved around its increasingly-tense relationship with the Trump administration over foreign policy issues such as trade and Iran. This focus has sidelined another important development, however: portions of the European energy industry - a major pillar of the single market - are increasingly coming into Russian and Chinese hands. In spite of impending American sanctions and widespread opposition including from within the European bloc, Nord Stream 2—Gazprom’s $11 billion natural gas pipeline running underneath the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany— is nearing completion. Meanwhile, China has gone after energy prizes all over the union. As just one noteworthy example, state-owned utility China Three Gorges— already the largest shareholder in Energias de Portugal— mounted a colossal $10.8 billion bid to take over the entire Portuguese grid. The uptick in Moscow and Beijing’s investments in nearly every aspect of Europe’s energy industry—from fossil fuels to renewables and power generation to energy infrastructure—have drawn criticism from both within the EU and abroad. Particular concerns have been raised over European unity and unfair competition. If unaddressed, these geopolitical and commercial implications could drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe while sowing serious divisions within the single European market.  Longstanding geopolitical conflicts and Cold War-era rhetoric have fueled the uneasiness around Russian energy investment in Europe. In May, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perryproposed a sanctions bill which would target companies, including a number of European firms, involved in the Nord Stream 2 project in an effort to stall construction on the controversial pipeline. Although Gazprom has obtained authorization from Russia, Finland, Sweden and Germany, it has encountered resistance from Denmark, which has yet to grant permission for the pipeline to pass through its territory. The project is also vehemently protested by most Central and Eastern European countries, including Poland and the Baltic states—to say nothing of Ukraine’s steadfast opposition.  The European Commission has sounded the alarm as well, wary of increasing the region’s energy dependence, both on gas and on Russia—a politically unfriendly state which remains under EU sanctions for its aggression in Ukraine.  In an effort to mitigate the risks of this dependence, the Commission has made policy changes to subject Nord Stream 2 to the EU’s regulatory umbrella. The reforms are currently being challenged by Gazprom at the European Court of Justice.

 Pertamina involves foreign workers in handling oil spill - Pertamina’s incident commander for YYA I Project, Taufik Adiyawarman, said the state-run oil and gas company recruited foreign workers to help handle the oil spill incident in the firm's Offshore North West Java (ONWJ) in Karawang. “As we have said that we do our utmost to expedite the spill recovery. So we call in human resources from outside [of the country],” said Taufik at the PGE Tower office, Jakarta, Monday, August 26. ADVERTISING He said that the corporate had communicated the matter with related authorities, such as the Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Special Task Force (SKK Migas) and the Directorate General of Sea Transportation. According to him, his side has sought capable domestic workers but to no avail. In addition, Pertamina will shut off the well in a bid to stop the spill in October 2019. “We have targeted to kill the well on October 8. Hopefully, we can intersect it on 6. It can be on October 8 or 1,” said Taufik. He admitted that the incident had not been resolved yet to date. The closing will begin after the drilling reaches 9,030 feet. He said this morning, August 26, the drilling reached 6,939 feet. “We are getting there. We have several optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic plans,” he said, adding that the well would be closed before October if the handling of oil spill went without a hitch.

Eni Wins Offshore Indonesia Block - Eni S.p.A. reported Monday that it has won the West Ganal exploration block in Indonesia’s offshore Kutei Basin in the country’s second conventional oil and gas bidding round for 2019. In a written statement emailed to Rigzone, Italy-based Eni stated that it will operate and own a 40-percent interest in the block. The company added that its partners include state-owned PT Pertamina (30 percent) and Neptune Energy (30 percent). According to Eni, West Ganal is a new gross split production sharing contract (PSC) that encompasses approximately 436 square miles (1,129 square kilometers) adjoining the Eni-operated Muara Bakau and East Sepinggan PSCs in the Makassar Strait off Indonesia’s East Kalimantan province. Eni added that the West Ganal award reinforces its strategic cooperation in the Kutei Basin with Pertamina and Neptune – its partners in the producing Jangkrik field in the Muara Bakau block. West Ganal includes the Maha discovery that boasts in-place gas resources in excess of 600 billion standard cubic feet, Neptune said in a separate written statement. Neptune added that the consortium has committed to drilling four exploration wells during the first exploration period. Moreover, the firm stated that the group will acquire 232 square miles (600 square kilometers) of 3D and 373 miles (600 kilometers) of 2D seismic data. Eni noted that Maha’s development and time-to-market will benefit from its proximity to the deepwater Jangkrik field, which achieved first gas in May 2017 and supplies the domestic and LNG export markets.

Saga authorities confirm huge oil spill - Authorities in Saga Prefecture, southwestern Japan, have confirmed reports of a huge oil spill from an ironworks plant in Omachi Town. The spill was reported on Wednesday morning. Prefectural officials and firefighters say torrential rains likely caused water to flow into the plant and back out with as much as 114,000 liters of oil. Oil spilled into nearby rice fields and residential areas. Authorities are putting up barriers and working to remove it. Authorities say that they confirmed that no oil has reached the nearby Rokkaku River or the Ariake Sea. 

Heavy Oil Premiums Shrink-- A plunge in fuel oil margins driven by impending environmental rules for shipping is beginning to take its toll on heavier grades of crude. The value of sludgier varieties of oil, typically used to make dirty products such as fuel oil to power ships, is eroding before the standards that take effect in January. International Maritime Organization rules, known as IMO 2020, will mandate the use of cleaner alternatives like gasoil or very low-sulfur fuel oil. IMO 2020 has spurred a plunge in profit margins from turning Dubai crude into fuel oil in Asia from a premium of $5.47 at the end of July to a discount of $10.16 on Aug. 14. That’s translating into waning demand for viscous oil, with Iraq selling an October-loading shipment of Basrah Heavy, a heavy-sour grade, on Wednesday at a premium of only a third of the last sale a week earlier. The current market dynamics are in-line with market expectations ahead of IMO 2020. In June and July, however, high-sulfur fuel oil enjoyed a surprising surge in prices that stemmed from a temporary supply shortage due to upgrading works that led to a rise in output of lighter types of fuels. While the spot differential for the heavy-sweet Van Gogh has also fallen, the Australian grade’s premium to London’s Dated Brent price remains supported due to its low sulfur content. That’s because it can be blended to make fuel that’s IMO 2020-compliant. Santos Ltd. sold a cargo for October loading last week at a premium of between $8 and $8.30 a barrel over Dated Brent, lower than the company’s initial expectations for a premium of $13.70 or more. Some West African grades loading in September and October have also been rising in relation to regional benchmarks due to healthy demand from Chinese buyers, say the traders. Angola’s Cabinda and Nemba tend to yield more gasoil when refined, lifting buying interest for the grades.

China Big Oil Bet on Upstream Pays Off-- China Big Oil wrapped up a first half that rewarded exploration & production and punished refining. PetroChina Co. and Cnooc Ltd. on Thursday posted stronger earnings, while Sinopec, the fuel-making behemoth, said earlier in the week that profit slid 24% from a year ago. All three delivered on commitments to increase spending, seeking to fulfill President Xi Jinping’s demand for higher energy output. Investors seemed pleased, especially with Cnooc’s cost cutting. The company led gains on the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on Friday, rising as much as 6.5%. PetroChina added as much as 4.5%. Here are some highlights from their January-June results: Unlike global titans such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp., who are keeping a tight rein on spending and returning cash to investors, China’s state-owned giants are splurging to expand output. While the trio aren’t yet at the midway mark of their annual capex targets -- spending tends to be concentrated in the second half -- they have significantly increased from last year. All three are steadily increasing output, which hasn’t come easy considering that many of their oil fields back home are old and costly. That helps explains why they’re betting big on natural gas. Cnooc’s net production rose to a record in the first half, while PetroChina posted a double-digit growth in domestic gas supply. Gas output by Sinopec, officially known as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., gained 7% despite overall production rising just 0.9%.

US Uses New Sanctions to Crack Down on N. Korean Oil Imports-- The U.S. cracked down on illicit North Korean oil imports, sanctioning a handful of Taiwan- and Hong Kong-based companies for helping Pyongyang evade international restrictions on its petroleum trade. The Treasury Department said in a statement on Friday that North Korea has continued to use ship-to-ship transfers at sea to evade United Nations restrictions on its oil imports. Treasury also alleged that North Korea has received deliveries of refined petroleum directly from ships flagged under other countries, and said those countries hadn’t reported the deliveries to the UN. The statement didn’t name the countries involved. U.S. and North Korean negotiators haven’t met since President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un promised to restart working-level talks in “two to three weeks” during their June 30 meeting at the Demilitarized Zone. Kim has resumed missile launches in recent months and has given the Trump administration until the end of the year to make a better offer on sanctions relief. Treasury’s announcement Friday suggested the U.S. isn’t poised to lift the penalties anytime soon. “The cumulative effect of these deliveries,” Treasury said in its statement, is that the UN’s official accounting of North Korea imports “vastly underrepresents the volume of refined petroleum products that actually enter the DPRK via its fleet of oil tankers and other associated vessels.” In addition to ship-to-ship transfers of fuel, the UN says North Korea, which is formally the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, has mastered hacking into both old and new financial systems to funnel billions of dollars to its nuclear weapons program. North Korean agents have amassed about $2 billion by stealing money from financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges, a panel monitoring the enforcement of UN sanctions said in a report this month to the Security Council.

OPEC Oil Demand Forecast Needs A Christmas Miracle - OPEC’s latest communique to an oil market mostly on vacation (or wishing it was) is almost a master class in positive spin. Almost. It begins with all the right phrases: “critical value”, “commitment”, “market stability”. These tee up the main message, which is that OPEC+ members are going above and beyond their pledge to withhold supply in order to support oil prices. Compliance was a robust 159% in July, according to the group, bringing the average for the year so far to 134%. In other words, fret not oil bulls, OPEC & Co. have your back. Things run into trouble soon after that: The JMMC [Joint Ministerial Committee] underscored the growing importance of the Declaration of Cooperation in supporting oil market stability, which along with ongoing healthy oil demand so far has arrested global oil inventories growth and should lead to significant draws in the second half of the year. It’s that “ongoing healthy oil demand” that sets a bell tinkling faintly somewhere in the back of the brain. Because global oil demand increased by only about 650,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2019, year over year, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. That is the weakest showing since the latter half of 2016, which was when OPEC+ first agreed to its six-months-going-on-three-years cuts. Even worse, none of that growth pertains to crude oil, with refinery runs having actually declined by about 100,000 barrels a day in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2018. OPEC rounds out the upbeat message by noting that forecasts for oil-market fundamentals remain robust for 2019 and 2020. It’s worth noting OPEC’s own forecast for growth this year has dropped by 400,000 barrels a day since January. More importantly, forecasts from OPEC and the IEA are starting to feel a little like letters to Santa. Because the first half sucked wind, those “robust” full-year figures now bank implicitly on a big finale. The IEA’s projection has demand rising by 1.6 million barrels a day in the second half, and maintaining solid growth of 1 million-plus through the first and second half of 2020: Even on a percentage basis, those figures for the second half of 2019 and 2020 would be the highest since 2012.

Iran’s Zarif holds surprise talks with Macron at G7 summit Iran's top diplomat has held talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron at the sidelines of the G7 summit following a surprise invite to the gathering. Mohammad Javad Zarif landed on Sunday in the French seaside town of Biarritz, where leaders of the G7 nations - Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States - were meeting to discuss a host of issues, including global trade, climate change and Iran's nuclear programme. Zarif immediately went into a three-and-a-half-hour meeting with French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, according to Reuters news agency. He spent half an hour with Macron, the second meeting in a week after the two leaders had met in Paris on Friday. Zarif did not meet Trump, who was also at the G7 meeting. "Iran's active diplomacy in pursuit of constructive engagement continues," Zarif said in a post on social media. "Road ahead is difficult. But worth trying."

 Iran's Zarif leaves G7 talks, unclear if progress made to ease tensions (Reuters) - Iran’s foreign minister made a flying visit for talks with host France at the G7 summit on Sunday, as Paris ramped up efforts to ease tensions between Tehran and Washington, a dramatic diplomatic move that the White House said had surprised them. European leaders have struggled to tamp down the brewing confrontation between Iran and the United States since Trump pulled Washington out of Iran’s internationally-brokered 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on the Iranian economy. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is under U.S. sanctions, flew to the southwest French town of Biarritz where the Group of Seven leaders are meeting. He held more than three hours of talks, including with Macron, before heading back to Tehran. “Road ahead is difficult. But worth trying,” Zarif tweeted, adding that in addition to meeting French leaders he had given a joint briefing to officials from Germany and Britain.

Possible Currency War Would Be A Disaster For Oil - Oil prices plunged on Friday after the U.S. and China both announced tariff hikes in tit-for-tat fashion. At the same time, markets opened on a positive note early Monday after President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone. But the respite could be brief. Global financial markets are completely at the mercy of Trump’s twitter account these days. On Friday, stocks and commodities fell sharply after China announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. goods. In response, Trump announced yet another 5 percent increase in the suite of tariffs on Chinese goods, although, notably, he waited until after financial markets had closed for the week.Over the weekend at the G-7 Conference in France, Trump sent mixed messages on the trade war, suggesting he had “second thoughts,” with his team subsequently clarifying that his second thoughts regarded his regret he hadn’t hiked tariffs by an even greater amount. Nevertheless, traders took comfort in his comments about wanting to make a deal with China, in addition to his assertion that China had called him up asking for a return to negotiations.Stocks opened up on a positive note on that news. However, it should be noted that Chinese officials said that they were “not aware of” the phone call that Trump alluded to. When pressed by reporters about the nature of the phone call, Trump said: “I don’t want to talk about calls. We’ve had calls. We’ve had calls at the highest levels.”If we’ve learned anything over the past few months, it is that these events turn on a dime. The incoherent strategy from the White House, and the complete lack of an official policymaking process, makes it impossible to predict how events will unfold. It is odd then that financial markets were so sanguine at the start of the week. One particular area of risk to watch is the further weakening of the yuan to the dollar. The yuan depreciated to 7.15 yuan to the greenback, the weakest rate since prior to the global financial crisis 11 years ago.  “As long as China can ensure that yuan weakness is well controlled, i.e. it does not provoke strong outflows, expect to see further depreciation in the currency.” Allowing the currency to depreciate is not without risks, even for China. With mountains of debt, a weaker yuan could make debt repayment at the company level more painful for Chinese firms.

Oil funds sidelined by economic uncertainty- Kemp -  (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers cut short positions in petroleum last week amid slow vacation trading and continued conflicting signals about the health of the economy and the outlook for oil supply. Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net long position in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by 8 million barrels in the week to Aug. 20. Portfolio managers were net buyers of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+18 million barrels), U.S. heating oil (+2 million) and European gasoil (+1 million) but sold Brent (-7 million) and U.S. gasoline (-5 million). Buying was mostly driven by the covering of previous short positions rather than the initiation of new long ones, according to an analysis of regulatory and exchange data (https://tmsnrt.rs/2Zkqq6Z). Funds cut short positions by 34 million barrels, including 39 million barrels in NYMEX and ICE WTI. Fund buying of WTI seems to have been driven mostly by local factors, principally the commissioning of new pipelines, easing congestion and pressure on prices in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. Hedge fund positioning is broadly neutral, with the fund community holding a dynamic long position (excluding structural longs and shorts) of just 60 million barrels. There is plenty of scope for fund managers to add to long positions if fears about a global recession prove unfounded - or increase short positions if the economic outlook deteriorates. Net positions have changed relatively little since the middle of June, partly because senior staff are on holiday over the summer, and partly because of uncertainty about the macro outlook. 

Oil steadies as US-Iran optimism faces US-China trade deal hopes - Oil prices steadied on Monday after France’s president lifted hopes for a deal between the United States and Iran, while optimism for easing U.S.-China trade tensions supported prices. Brent crude fell 53 cents to $58.82 a barrel, after earlier hitting a session high of $60.17. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 38 cents to $53.80 a barrel, after reaching $55.26 a barrel. Prices fell after French President Emmanuel Macron said preparations were underway for a meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming weeks to find a solution to a nuclear standoff. “The prospect for talks between President Trump and President Rouhani is a tantalizing, bearish element for oil prices,” said John Kilduff, founder of Again Capital. “Any thawing in the U.S.-Iran relationship would naturally expect to involve easing of sanctions on Iran, resulting in increased oil sales. The market can barely handle current supply levels.” Trump last year abandoned Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, arguing that he wanted a bigger deal that not only limited Iran’s atomic work, but also reined in its support for proxies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, and curbed its ballistic missile program. Trump also tightened sanctions on Iran in May to try to choke off its oil exports. “Now the market is pondering the possibility that we’ll see a flood or Iranian oil come onto the market if there’s progress made,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “We have to be admittedly cautious because we’ve heard of deals one minute only to be tweeted down the next minute.” Buoying prices, Trump said he believed China was seeking a trade deal after he said Beijing contacted U.S. officials overnight to say it wanted a return to talks.

Oil falls, gives up earlier gains on trade dispute-related volatility - Oil prices gave up earlier gains to finish lower on Monday, as traders weighed demand uncertainty in the wake of the latest news on the U.S.-China trade dispute. Prices had been moving higher early Monday after last week’s tumble, as China and the U.S. both appeared to attempt to tamp down rising trade tensions. “Uncertainty around trade has been responsible for the volatility” on Monday, Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit, told MarketWatch. “In the first instance, President [Donald] Trump’s statement regarding the supposed contact between Chinese and U.S. officials sent the market higher in anticipation of a trade deal, but since then there were questions around whether a call actually took place and just what might come next,” he said. “As it stands, new tariffs are due to be introduced on Sept. 1, so the near-term implications for demand are likely bearish.” “Given all this, we are probably in for a volatile, sideways trading week,” said Steeves, pointing out that the October West Texas Intermediate crude contract has been trading in the mid-$50s this month “and likely will continue to do so.” WTI crude for October delivery edged down by 53 cents, or 1%, to settle at $53.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, posting a fourth straight session decline. October Brent crude fell by 64 cents, or 1.1%, to $58.70 a barrel on ICE Europe. Trump said U.S. officials had received calls from Chinese negotiators and that the two sides would return to the table. China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, on Monday said that Beijing hopes to resolve the trade war through “calm” negotiations and isn’t seeking to escalate tensions, according to Reuters. CBS News, meanwhile, reported that Beijing did not confirm any weekend phone calls between Chinese trade representatives and U.S. officials.

Oil rises as US-China trade comments calm markets - Oil prices rose on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a trade deal with China after positive comments by Beijing, calming nerves after a round of tit-for-tat tariff hikes had sent markets reeling. Brent crude was up by 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $58.95 a barrel by 0214 GMT, after falling 1% in the previous session, dropping for a third day in a row. U.S. crude was up by 30 cents or 0.6% at $53.94 a barrel, having also dropped 1% on Monday for a fourth day of declines. Trump on Monday said he believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a deal, while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to resolve the dispute through “calm” negotiations, settling global markets. “For now, the street is in thrall to the President’s comments, with financial markets doing abrupt changes of direction on his words that wouldn’t look out of place in Fast and the Furious film,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. Oil prices have fallen around 20% from a 2019 high reached in April, in part because of worries that the U.S.-China trade conflict is hurting the global economy, which could dent demand for oil. China’s Commerce Ministry said last week it would impose additional tariffs of 5% or 10% on a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States, including crude oil, agricultural products and small aircraft. In retaliation, Trump said he was ordering U.S. companies to look at ways to close operations in China and make products in the United States. “Unless you believe a trade deal will happen the slowdown in the global economy continues ... and earnings all over the globe will be under pressure,” said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro. The measures are prompting reactions from Chinese companies, with Sinopec seeking a tariff exemption for importing U.S. oil in the coming months, sources told Reuters.

Trump Feeds Oil Markets False Hope -Mixed messages from President Trump at the G-7 summit in France have left investors guessing on what happens next regarding the trade war. Shifting from a hard line to a more conciliatory and upbeat note, Trump sowed confusion as higher tariffs are days away from taking effect. But with the two leaders trapped in a cycle of escalation, there is little face-saving room for a deal at this point. “The likelihood of any sort of sustainable deal was already a long-shot a week ago. And now the political terrain on which you could create a deal is just so infinitesimal,” Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg. The G-7 summit produced very few deliverables, but one interesting development was the possibility that Trump would meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. French President Emmanuel Macron invited Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif to the summit, and also angled to convince Trump to negotiate with Iran. Trump suggested he was open to the idea even as he was non-committal, while the Iranian side said that a future meeting depended on the removal of sanctions. The idea appears likely to go nowhere, but the atmosphere is notably different from two months ago, when Trump was on the verge of launching a military strike.   While financial markets were left confused but hopeful after Trump’s seemingly softer line regarding China, the fact is that tariffs are set to rise next week. Also, China’s currency has weakened further, dropping to its weakest point since prior to the 2008 financial crisis. That will put deeper pressure on emerging market currencies, which could slow oil demand and prompt central banks to take more aggressive action to cut interest rates.   The Mexican government has reached a preliminary agreement with private companies that could result in the startup of the South Texas-Tuxpan marine gas pipeline. The project was completed in June but gas flows have been stalled due to disagreements over pricing. The pipeline could increase gas flows in Mexico by 40 percent.

Oil Prices Finish Higher --West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finished higher for the first time in five trading days. The October WTI contract price gained $1.29 Tuesday to settle at $54.93 per barrel. The light crude marker traded within a range from $53.69 to $55.09. Brent crude oil for October delivery ended the day at $59.51, reflecting an 81-cent increase. Tuesday’s settlement ends a three-trading-day string of declines for the Brent. WTI and Brent had stabilized after Iran’s foreign minister virtually quashed the notion of meeting with U.S. officials in an effort to ease tensions, states a Bloomberg article posted to Rigzone earlier Tuesday. Reformulated gasoline (RBOB) also settled higher Tuesday. September RBOB added three cents to close at $1.65 per gallon. One day after posting a nearly four-percent gain, Henry Hub natural gas futures stumbled during Tuesday’s session. The September gas benchmark shed three cents, settling at $2.20.

WTI Extends Gains Above $55 After Huge Crude Draw - After tumbling on trade talk doubts, WTI crude prices spiked back above $55 this afternoon after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters in Moscow that Russia is committed to complying with OPEC+ production-cut deal.Additionally, an OPEC+ committee said it expects stockpiles to decline sharply in the second half of the year. API:

• Crude -11.1mm (-2.25mm exp) - biggest draw since June
• Cushing -2.4mm
• Gasoline -349k
• Distillates -2.5mm

After a brief period of small builds, Crude stocks have resumed their drawdowns, with API reporting a massive 11.1mm plunge in inventories. In fact, there were drawdowns across the board... “The resolution of the U.S.-China rift will take time,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Economic uncertainty has not been lifted, which still leaves a fair degree of hesitancy in going long oil.”WTI hovered around $55 ahead of the API print and spiked on the big draw, running to the pre-Trump highs from Friday...

Oil prices rise on drop in US crude inventories - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after industry data showing a fall in stockpiles of U.S. crude somewhat eased worries about subdued demand due to the China-U.S. trade war. Brent crude futures climbed 2.13% to $60.78 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 2.88% to $56.51 a barrel. The two benchmarks are headed for monthly losses of around 8% and 5%, respectively, weighed down by trade barriers between the world’s two biggest oil consumers. U.S. crude stockpiles plummeted by 11.1 million barrels last week as imports dropped, compared with expectations for a 2-million-barrel draw, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, showed. “Overnight, the energy complex was given a shot of bullish adrenaline by a supportive API report,” PVM analysts said in a note. The U.S. government’s weekly inventory report is due at 10:30 a.m. EST. If the official numbers confirm the API data, it would be the biggest weekly decline in nine weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a trade deal, while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to resolve the dispute through “calm” negotiations. On Tuesday, however, concerns resurfaced after China’s foreign ministry said it had not heard of any recent telephone call between the United States and China on trade, and that it hoped Washington could create conditions for talks. Crude prices have fallen about a fifth from 2019 highs hit in April, partly because of worries that the trade war is hurting the global economy and could dent oil demand.

DOE Confirms Major Crude Draw, Oil Algos Confused As Production Hits Record High - Oil prices have extended yesterday's gains, following last night's surprisingly huge crude draw (reported by API) and OPEC+ saying they expect a “significant” decrease in global crude stockpiles in the second half of this year after they trimmed output more than planned. “Oil markets are broadly balanced at the moment, benefiting from the typical seasonal acceleration in demand,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley. DOE

• Crude -10.03mm (-2.25mm exp; Whisper -5.47mm)
• Cushing -1.98mm
• Gasoline -2.09mm
• Distillates -2.063mm

Following the massive crude draw reported by API, official government data reported a large draw of 10.03mm barrels (slightly below API but well above expectations) along with draws across the rest of the energy complex...   Crude stockpiles fell to their lowest levels since Oct 2018 but Gasoline and Distillates are relatively flat...

Oil rises 1.5% on steep drop in US crude inventories - Oil prices were up more than 1% on Wednesday after data showing a steep fall in U.S. crude stockpiles helped ease worries about weakening oil demand caused by the trade war between Washington and Beijing.Brent crude futures were up 1.7% to $60.52 a barrel. WTI crude futures rose 1.5%, to $55.75 a barrel.Although the two benchmarks recorded their biggest daily gains in eleven sessions on Wednesday, they are headed for monthly losses of around 7% and 4%, respectively, weighed down by trade barriers between the world’s two biggest oil consumers.U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week by 10 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels, as imports slowed, the Energy Information Administration said.Gasoline stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 388,000-barrel drop.“It was an incredibly bullish report, one of the more bullish we’ve had in a while, with draws across the board and of course the massive crude oil drop, which was generated by another drop in imports,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York. That draw down was likely due to a drop in Saudi exports to the U.S, Kilduff said.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a trade deal, while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to resolve the dispute through “calm” negotiations.On Tuesday, however, concerns resurfaced after China’s foreign ministry said it had not heard of any recent telephone call between the United States and China on trade, and that it hoped Washington could create conditions for talks. Crude prices have fallen about a fifth from 2019 highs hit in April, partly because of worries that the trade war is hurting the global economy and could dent oil demand.

Oil prices pegged back by mounting concern over US economy - Oil prices fell on Thursday for the first time in three days after San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly sounded a note of concern about the strength of U.S. economy. Brent crude was down 30 cents, or 0.5%, at $60.19 a barrel by 0202 GMT while U.S. crude was down 15 cents, or 0.3%, at $55.63 a barrel. Oil prices rose around 1.5 percent in the previous session. Concerns about a slowdown in economic growth due to the trade war raging between the United States and China, along with the potential hit to oil demand, are keeping prices in check. Daly said on Thursday she believes the U.S. economy has “strong” momentum, but uncertainty and a global growth slowdown are having an impact. Daly was speaking to reporters after a speech in Wellington, New Zealand and said she was in “watch and see” mode in assessing the need for another U.S. interest-rate cut. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a trade deal, but concerns arose on Tuesday after China’s foreign ministry declined to confirm a telephone call between the two countries on trade. “Trade tensions (are) hanging like a dark cloud threatening to rain over oil prices,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. The market shrugged of a big drop in U.S. inventories, which fell last week by 10 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 388,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 918,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed. The crude draw down confirms “that OPEC supply cuts are effectively working by depleting U.S. reserves,”

 Oil Prices Buoyed by Renewed Trade Optimism - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil closed higher Thursday.The October WTI added 93 cents Thursday, settling at $56.71 per barrel. It peaked at $56.89 and bottomed out at $55.88.Brent crude for October delivery ended the day at $61.08 per barrel, reflecting a 59-cent gain.“Oil continued its rally today as equities moved higher on new optimism on a possible U.S./China trade dispute resolution,” said Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Business with the University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business. “Yesterday’s rally was sparked by an unexpectedly high inventory withdrawal, exceeding analysts’ forecasts considerably.”As Rigzone reported Wednesday, figures from the American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Energy Information Administration showed particularly sharp drops in domestic crude oil stocks and in turn boosted the WTI and Brent at midweek.Now oil traders will increasingly watch the path of Hurricane Dorian, said Seng. He noted the potentially major storm heading toward Florida could re-emerge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Should that occur, offshore oil and gas interests to the west could be affected.“Today is the fourth straight ‘up’ day after last week’s lower pricing based upon perceived weakness in global demand,” Seng continued. “Technically, WTI is above all three of its moving averages but neutral in terms of buy/sell indicators.”Posting a more modest gain Thursday was reformulated gasoline (RBOB). The September RBOB contract finished just two-tenths of a cent higher, settling at $1.68 per gallon.“Gasoline is flat today despite the rally in crude oil as we approach Labor Day Weekend, the ‘official’ end of the summer driving season,” Seng noted.Henry Hub natural gas futures also rose during Thursday’s trading. The October gas contract added seven cents to close at $2.30. Seng pointed out the latest EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report disappointed market-watchers, showing a higher-than-forecasted injection of 60 billion cubic feet (Bcf). “Analysts were looking for a build of 56 Bcf,” he explained. “Countering this bearish signal is concern over GOM natural gas supply due to Hurricane Dorian as well.”

Oil Prices Crash As Hurricane Hurts Bullish Sentiment -- Oil prices looked set for their biggest weekly gain since July, but demand fears caused by Hurricane Dorian hitting Florida sent prices crashing on Friday morning. Oil prices were pushed up this week by cautious language from the U.S. and China, falling oil inventories, and also by a major Hurricane heading for the U.S. southeast. Despite an apparent cooling in the trade war, already-announced tariffs are set to jump on Sunday. “Upside momentum should not be taken for granted. Recession fears are casting a shadow on sentiment and oil prices should keep dancing to the tune of the U.S.-China trade saga,” Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM told Reuters.  Hurricane Dorian, which could yet strengthen to a powerful Category 4, is heading for Florida. “There’s a storm premium in the WTI price,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, told Reuters. “The track of the storm is kind of dangerous for Gulf of Mexico production.” The storm could impact fuel supplies in Florida at the retail level. Florida is not an oil producer. The storm is expected to turn up the Atlantic Coast, so Gulf of Mexico production probably won’t be impacted. There could be a significant demand impact though. There have been 26 bankruptcies in the U.S. shale industry this year, nearly as much as the 28 bankruptcies in all of 2018. The default rate of 5.7 percent is at its highest level since 2017, according to the Wall Street Journal. Investors have lost faith in shale E&Ps, and bankruptcies are on the rise. But this may pale in comparison to the debt wave that comes due over the next few years. Roughly $9 billion in debt is set to mature over the remainder of 2019 – but a massive $137 billion matures between 2020 and 2022.    Tariffs are still set to jump starting in September, but both President Trump and China have dialed down the rhetoric in recent days. China said that it would not immediately respond to last week’s announced tariff increase from Trump. Saudi Aramco may pursue a public offering in two stages, one on the Saudi stock exchange later this year, followed by an international offering in 2020 or 2021, according to the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ says that Aramco is considering Tokyo, spurning London and Hong Kong because of political uncertainty.   Saudi Aramco Trading Company, an arm of the Saudi oil giant, sold its first-ever cargo of U.S. West Texas Light oil to a refinery in South Korea, according to Reuters. The move is a sign that Aramco is expanding its relationship with the U.S. and boosting trade volumes. 

Oil Narrows Weekly Advance - - Oil gave back much of the week’s gains ahead of a long weekend in the U.S., with investors eyeing simmering U.S.-China trade tensions. Futures in New York fell below $55 a barrel Friday, extending the month’s drop to more than 6%. China is set to impose a 5% tariff on American crude from Sept. 1 that may slow the flow to a key market just as U.S. output hits fresh records. Also, Russia indicated that it reduced crude output in August less than promised in the agreement with OPEC and its allies. “It’s simply positioning ahead of the long weekend,” said Bob Yawger, futures director at Mizuho Securities USA in New York. “It’s been the best week in the past seven. If you were long, would you want to go home this weekend still long, really no idea what kind of twitter feed the POTUS is going to unload while you hanging out at the beach bar?” Oil remains under pressure as the outlook for the global economy continues to be weak and the U.S. pumps out crude at record-high levels. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies said this week they expect to deplete the global oil surplus with their cuts, and falling inventories in America are indicating some level of success. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery declined $1.70 to $55.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 11:56 a.m. local time. Brent for October settlement, which expires Friday, lost 76 cents to $60.32 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The more-active November contract sank $1.62 to $58.87. Traders are also keeping an eye on Hurricane Dorian that’s now expected to become a Category 4 storm and make landfall on Florida’s east coast, the first major hurricane to hit the area in 15 years. If the storm only strikes Florida it will likely be bearish for crude prices as it will stymie fuel demand, according to UBS Group AG analyst Giovanni Staunovo. However, if it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it could cut U.S. output and lift prices, he added.

Oil drops as Russia reportedly cuts output less than expected; U.S. prices lose 6% in August - Oil futures settled sharply lower Friday, contributing to a loss for the month, after reports emerged that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia’s oil output cuts in August will be slightly smaller those agreed to under the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Novak said the countries under the deal will discuss the agreement and the market situation at the Monitoring Committee meeting on Sept. 12, Reuters reported, citing RIA and Interfax news agencies. The reports quoted Novak as saying Moscow still aims to fully comply with the deal.  But the report shook confidence. Now with Russia “faltering,” it’s possible the output-cut deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC member Russia “may not be taken for granted,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “Still, Russia has over-complied last month.”OPEC oil output rose in August for the first month this year, with members of the group pumping 29.61 million barrels a day, up 80,000 barrels a day from July’s revised figure, according to the results of a Reuters survey reported Friday.Earlier this week, OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which monitors OPEC and non-OPEC member compliance with the cuts, pegged overall conformity at 159% in July, up 22% from June. OPEC and other major oil producers, including Russia, pledged to cut supplies at the start of this year by a total of 1.2 million barrels a day from late 2018 levels. The deal was extended through March 2020.  West Texas Intermediate crude for the October delivery fell $1.61, or 2.8%, to settle at $55.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s been a tough August for crude, with the commodity slipping into a bear market. Front-month prices for the U.S. benchmark suffered a 5.9% monthly decline, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Still, the front-month WTI contract saw a 1.7% weekly rise after a large fall in U.S. inventories and some cautious optimism on trade. Also, data Friday from Baker Hughes implied a slowdown in U.S. oil-drilling activity, with the number of active oil rigs down 12 to 742 this week. That followed last week’s drop of 16 oil rigs. Global benchmark October Brent crude which expired at the end of the session, ended at $60.43, down 65 cents, or 1.1%, on ICE Futures Europe. The contract saw a weekly rise of 1.8% and a monthly decline of 7.3%. November Brent crude,, which became the front-month at the settlement, lost $1.24, or 2.1%, to settle at $59.25 a barrel.

Aramco IPO Could be Heading to Asia -- The battle for a stake in Saudi Aramco keeps fueling a feverish investment sentiment.Grand scale (ad)ventures or Mega Projects have been making headlines for decades, while looking at Dubai, Doha or Riyadh. Still, the Aramco IPO story, proponed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, beats them all.The battle for a stake in the oil world’s largest cookie-jar, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco, keeps fueling a feverish investment sentiment. After years for preparations, delays and possible disappointments, international investment bankers are again courting the oil giant’s management, and the Saudi government, to get a stake in the IPO. At the same time, the world’s largest stock exchanges, LSE, NYSE and HKEC, have been pitching to the giant again recently. The possibility of listing of Aramco, which is expected to raise around $100 billion, would be a major boon for the respective bourses, currently confronted by low trading volumes and volatility in the financial markets.Western finance markets still seem to expect that the Kingdom’s Treasure Trove will be heading to them, but this could be a real "fata morgana" (mirage) in the end. Without leaving the Western options, especially LSE and NYSE, the real price could be heading to Asia. The latter move would be consistent with Saudi Arabia’s ongoing Eastern Orientation, as most investments and clients of the Kingdom are in China, India and the other Asian markets. It would be very functional to list Aramco at least for a major part on Asian bourses, as it fits a major geopolitical-economic strategy. Locking in markets, clients and financial backing in Asia, Aramco’s power position for its future developments would be much stronger.  At the same time, in looking to Asian investors to take the lead in the IPO, Aramco will also be able to be more flexible in its overall transparency strategy. Chinese, Indian or SK/Japanese investors will be less inclined to ask the typical western questions about reserves, financials, political interference and the role of the Saudi Royal Family, than would be the case with European institutional or pension funds.

 Mohammed bin Salman’s Collapsing Coalition in Yemen Means Trouble for Trump -- On Aug. 7, fighting broke out in Yemen’s de facto capital, the port city of Aden. The battle pitted the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a coalition of secessionist militia forces that has been supported and trained by the United Arab Emirates, against the internationally recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which is backed by Saudi Arabia. The dispute brings to light long-subsumed tensions between Emirati and Saudi objectives in Yemen. This in turn has exposed a broader rift between the regional policy approaches of these two key U.S. security partners, which could enmesh Washington in yet another regional dispute and complicate the Trump administration’s stance on Iran. While Saudi and Emirati leaders have tried to play down the rift, the recent fighting in Aden demonstrates that Saudi and Emirati approaches to the Yemen conflict have differed since the beginning of the coalition’s intervention in Yemen’s civil war, in March 2015. Saudi Arabia’s overriding priority is securing its southern border against the Houthis, who have received support from Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, Iran. It has therefore focused its efforts on fighting the Houthis in the north and supported the Hadi government as the sole governing entity deserving of international recognition. The UAE, by contrast, has sought to leverage its role in the conflict to expand its military and economic access to the Horn of Africa and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital link in global trade routes. While both Saudi and Emirati leaders view Iran as a serious threat, the UAE remains more vulnerable to a confrontation due to its geographic proximity and more substantial commercial ties to the Islamic Republic. This has encouraged a more pragmatic Emirati approach to Iran: While the UAE joins Saudi Arabia in condemning Iranian influence and military activity in the region, it maintains diplomatic ties (albeit downgraded since 2016) with Iran. The open break between Saudi- and Emirati-backed forces in Aden confirms the UAE’s recent efforts to distance itself from Saudi Arabia’s regional policy. Emirati leaders are worried that escalating tensions with nearby Iran could spiral out of control and inflict serious damage on the UAE’s economic model, which seeks to diversify away from a reliance on oil by developing other sectors like tourism and the financial industry. Additionally, Emirati leaders appear tired of getting part of the blame for the wide-scale civilian casualties, human rights violations, and devastating humanitarian crisis in Yemen; whileEmirati-sponsored militias have been accused of serious human rights violations, the indiscriminate Saudi-led air campaign has led to the majority of civilian casualties in Yemen.

 Britain sold more than £6 billion in arms for Saudi-led coalition’s deadly war in Yemen - The British government, by supplying arms, personnel and expertise, has played a crucial role in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. The coalition has been accused of hundreds of indiscriminate bombing operations against civilians since the start of the war in March 2015. Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition to reinstate President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whom Riyadh and Washington had installed after widespread protests forced the resignation of long-term dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2011-12, after Houthi rebels drove out his corrupt government. The coalition has the full backing of both Washington and London. In addition to Saudi Arabia it consists of Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and the Academi corporation, formerly known as Blackwater. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Morocco were coalition members but pulled out earlier this year. The support of Qatar for the coalition was suspended in 2017. Britain has licensed the sale of at least £6.2 billion ($7.6 billion) worth of arms to the coalition, selling £5.3 billion of arms to Saudi Arabia, including £2.7 billion ($3.4 billion) worth of aircraft and £1.9 billion ($2.4 billion) worth of missiles, bombs and grenades, £657 million to the UAE, £85 million to Egypt, £72 million to Bahrain, £40 million to Kuwait and £142 million to Qatar, before it withdrew from the coalition. But the real level of arms sales is probably much higher, as many are transferred under the opaque system of “Open Licences” that is used to sanction arms sales to blood-soaked regimes in the Middle East, such as el-Sisi’s in Egypt and the barbaric House of Saud. According to Middle East Eye, there has been a 22 percent rise in the use of secretive open licences since ministers pledged to increase Britain’s arms exports after the Brexit vote. As well as supplying arms, Britain has sent more than 80 Royal Air Force personnel to Saudi Arabia, some working within the command and control centre that selects targets in Yemen for bombing and others training the Saudi air force. A further 6,200 British contractors work at Saudi military bases, training pilots and maintaining aircraft. It also emerged that—unbeknownst to the UK population—there are British troops on the ground in Yemen. The Mail on Sunday reported in March that at least five British Special Forces commandos had been wounded in gun battles as part of a top-secret UK military campaign in Yemen.The troops from the elite Special Boat Service (SBS), whose activities are never reported to Parliament, suffered gunshot injuries in fierce clashes with Houthi forces in the Sa’dah area of northern Yemen, where up to 30 British troops are based. British Special Forces are thus fighting on the same side as jihadis and militia linked to al-Qaeda that are part of the Saudi-led coalition and use child soldiers as young as 13 and 14 years old.

UAE: 'Terrorist militias' targeted as fractures with Saudi grow - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it carried out air raids against "terrorist militias" in southern Yemen as the UN-recognised government accused the UAE of killing and wounding hundreds of people in the attacks. "Precise and direct air strikes" on Wednesday and Thursday targeted the militias, said the UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement late on Thursday. The armed groups planned to target the Saudi-led military coalition - of which the UAE is a key member - backing the Yemen government against the Houthi rebels who control northern Yemen, it said. The UAE acted in "self-defence" after attacks by "armed groups affiliated with terrorist organisations," the ministry said. The statement came hours after Emirati-backed separatists on Thursday regained control of Aden - the Yemeni government's de facto capital - forcing government troops who entered the city a day early to withdraw. The government on Wednesday said it had seized back Aden from separatists who captured the strategic city on August 10 after a fierce battle that killed dozens. In further violence in the port city on Friday, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group claimed a suicide bombing that killed three separatist fighters, while a separatist military chief survived a roadside bomb that wounded five of his guards, security sources said. Meanwhile, Yemen's Ministry of Defence said more than 300 people were killed and wounded in the UAE's air raids. The casualty tolls could not be independently verified.

Yemen’s Houthis attack Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport: spokesman - (Reuters) - Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport with a cruise missile on Wednesday, the group’s military spokesman said in a tweet.Spokesman Yahya Saria said the missile targeted plane hangars and led to air traffic being halted at the airport.The Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthis in Yemen said a “hostile projectile” fired by the Iran-aligned group landed in Abha airport late Wednesday but caused no injuries, Saudi state news agency quoted the coalition military spokesman as saying early on Thursday.

23 Nigerians To Be Executed In Saudi Arabia - The Nigerian Voice - At least 23 Nigerians are on death roll in Saudi Arabia over drug-related offenses. This was revealed in a statement released by the Saudi Arabian Government on Saturday. According to the statement, the suspects were arrested between 2016 and 2017 at King Abdul-Aziz International Airport, Jeddah, and Prince Muhammad Bin Abdu-Aziz International Airport, Madinah. The suspects were said to have concealed the narcotic substance in their rectum, an act the Saudi Government says contravenes its narcotic and psychotropic substances rules. The offense is punishable by death. The latest case is coming few weeks after Saudi authorities executed Kudirat Afolabi for drug trafficking and Saheed Sobade, another Nigerian, reportedly nabbed with 1,183 grams of cocaine in Jeddah. They were said to have been arrested between 2016 and 2017 at King Abdul-Aziz International Airport, Jeddah and Prince Muhammad bin Abdu- Aziz International Airport, Madinah having concealed the banned substances in their rectums, the Saudi document revealed. The names of the convicted persons were given as:

China's Oil Imports From Iran Are Rising, New Customs Data Shows --Much anticipated data by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) detailing the country's oil imports has been released on Tuesday, and shows that China has not cut its Iranian supply after the US waiver program ended on May 2nd, but has steadily increased Iranian crude imports since the official end of the waiver extension, up from May and June levels. It's been no secret that China continues to play a large part in preventing Trump's desire to take Iran's crude exports down to zero, despite a noticeable drop on its Iran oil imports compared to the summer prior (sinking almost 60% in June compared to a year earlier). The new GAC data shows China imported over 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Iran in July, which is up 4.7% from the month before. On a metric-ton basis, Iranian inflows rose 8.2% from June, but this marked a drop of 71.9% on the year, according to S&P conversion figures (China's GAC releases customs data in metric tons). China's June crude shipments from Iran totaled 855,638, averaging to 208,205 barrels per day (bpd) two months after Trump ended the waiver program, compared with 254,016 bpd in May, according the July GAC figures. Simultaneously, China's oil purchases from Iran's rival Saudi Arabia have during this hot summer of "tanker wars" soared to record volume, in June reaching an all-time high of 1.89 million barrels a day, and in July dipping slightly to 1.65 million b/d. Thus far for the first seven months of 2019 Saudi Arabia has been China's top crude supplier, with Russia and Iraq second and third. Meanwhile, the United States hit the top ten list of China's suppliers for the first time since August 2018, the eighth largest supplier in July, jumping 45% year on year to 1.53 million metric tons, according to S&P analysis of the Chinese customs figures.

Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7 - The threshold to an armed conflict around the Persian Gulf just got even smaller. On Monday, Iran said it had deployed two warships - a destroyer and a helicopter carrier - to protect the country's commercial vessels around the Gulf of Aden, located between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, and Persian Gulf region amid a growing US-driven military build-up in the volatile region, which recently culminated with several tanker seizures on both sides, the navy times reports. Iran's brand new destroyer Sahand and the supply ship/replenishment carrier Kharg whiuch has a helicopter pad and services as lositics support, were deployed to the Gulf of Aden and Sea of Oman and tasked with escorting ships in international waters. The "Sahand" commissioned in December 2018, is Iran’s most advanced home-made warship. It has a stealth hull and can travel a further than the previous class destroyers without refueling. It is equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles as well as anti-aircraft batteries and radar and radar evading capabilities. Tehran’s decision to escort its cargo vessels comes at a time of escalating tensions in the Gulf, with US and UK warships operating in and around the Persian Gulf under the "defensive" premise that Iran is the aggressor behind June’s attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Accusing Tehran of ‘sponsoring terrorism’ and running a secret nuclear program, Washington has beefed up its military in the region with more troops and hardware, including an aircraft carrier and bombers.In early July, the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya, previously known as Grace 1, was seized off the coast of Gibraltar for allegedly carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. It was later released, despite US demands that it be detained again. In retaliation, Iran detained a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf; it remains in Tehran’s custody.The United States’ most devoted ally in Europe, the UK, is the only country, so far, to support Trump’s call for an international anti-Iran armada in the region. It has sent three new warships to reinforce its presence there in recent weeks, with the stated goal of protecting shipping lanes. Meanwhile, after Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif made a surprise appearance at the G-7 summit in Biarritz over the weekend where he failed to achieve any notable diplomatic breakthroughs, he then darted off to Beijing, where he met with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. This was s the third time the Iranian FM has visited China this year, as the Iranian tries to reinforce Chinese support of Iran in its conflict with the US.

Satellite photos show burning Iran space center launch pad - WaPo — A rocket at an Iranian space center that was to conduct a satellite launch criticized by the U.S. apparently exploded on its launch pad Thursday, satellite images show, suggesting the Islamic Republic suffered its third failed launch this year alone. State media and officials did not immediately acknowledge the incident at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in Iran’s Semnan province. However, satellite images by Planet Labs Inc. showed a black plume of smoke rising above a launch pad there, with what appeared to be the charred remains of a rocket and its launch stand. In previous days, satellite images had shown officials there repainted the launch pad blue. On Thursday morning, half of that paint apparently had been burned away. “Whatever happened there, it blew up and you’re looking at the smoldering remains of what used to be there,” said David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Schmerler told The Associated Press that the images of the space center suggested that the rocket either exploded during ignition or possibly briefly lifted off before crashing back down on the pad. Water runoff from the pad, likely from trying to extinguish the blaze, could be seen along with a host of vehicles parked nearby. NPR first reported on the satellite images of the apparent failed launch at the space center, some 240 kilometers (150 miles) southeast of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Iranian satellite launches had been anticipated before the end of the year.

U.S. should honor nuclear deal if it wants talks: Iran foreign minister - Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Thursday the United States must observe the 2015 nuclear deal and stop engaging in “economic terrorism” against the Iranian people if Washington wants to meet for talks.  Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration last year quit an international deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and began to ratchet up sanctions. Iran, which has slowly been breaching the nuclear deal in retaliation for U.S. sanctions, has threatened further violations in early September unless it receives sanctions relief. “The United States is engaged in an economic war against the Iranian people and it won’t be possible for us to engage with the United States unless they stop imposing a war and engaging in economic terrorism against the Iranian people,” Zarif told reporters in Kuala Lumpur after addressing a forum on security in the Islamic world. “So if they want to come back into the room there is a ticket that they need to purchase and that ticket is to observe the agreement,” he said, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran Sold Oil Wanted by US-- Iran said it sold an oil cargo on board a contested tanker sailing the Mediterranean Sea but didn’t know where the vessel was going amid U.S. efforts to block delivery of the crude. The Adrian Darya 1, the tanker that the U.S. sought to seize in Gibraltar last week, was sailing more than halfway into the Mediterranean Sea on Monday without declaring any destination. Iran didn’t identify the buyer of the roughly 2 million-barrel cargo. The buyer will determine where the oil is delivered, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said announcing the sale. He didn’t say when Iran sold the crude in comments carried by state-run IRNA news agency. Iran’s tanker fleet is under intense scrutiny as the U.S. seeks to cut off the Islamic republic’s ability to sell crude, normally the country’s main export earner. Iran’s oil sales have tumbled under U.S. sanctions threatening to punish most interactions with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. French President Emmanuel Macron renewed efforts over the weekend to save the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic. Both Iran and other signatories to the deal oppose the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tougher measures and Macron proposed allowing the Middle Eastern producer to sell more crude in exchange for returning to full compliance with the agreement. Macron discussed the idea in meetings with Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Biarritz, the site of the Group of Seven summit. Those discussions would likely do little to solve the immediate problem of the Adrian Darya 1. The Trump Administration is seeking to block the tanker’s voyage by threatening sanctions to stop the ship from being able to call in any port or offload any oil. The tanker on Sunday changed the signal sent from the vessel’s satellite transponder to “For Order,” a designation meaning the ship isn’t disclosing any destination, according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data. The Adrian Darya 1, which last week changed names from Grace 1, was sailing south of the Greek mainland, according to tanker-tracking data.

'Mystery Buyer' Has Purchased The 2.1M Barrels Of Iranian Oil Aboard The Adrian Darya  -As the previously detained Grace 1 tanker, since renamed the Adrian Darya 1, continues its voyage toward a port in southern Turkey, there's been a significant development regarding the 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude aboard which the US has sought to capture, claiming the ship is engaged in illegal sanctions busting. On Monday an Iranian government spokesman announced the 2.1 million barrels have been sold to an unnamed buyer while en route across the Mediterranean.  In statements made to reporters in Tehran, spokesman Ali Rabiei, said of the oil's as yet unmentioned unloading point, “The buyer of the oil decides where its destination is.” He added that the world is “witnessing the wrong policy by the U.S. in monitoring and intervention in others’ internal affairs.” The Associated Press noted that "At market rates, the crude oil aboard the Adrian Darya would be worth about $130 million" and further that "anyone buying it likely would be targeted by U.S. financial sanctions."Over the weekend the real-time ship tracking website MarineTraffic showed a change in the Iran-flagged Adrian Darya's destination. This after the US State Department threatened that should Greece provide any aid or facilities to the vessel carrying 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil, it would be tantamount to "material support to terrorism". The Unites States says the tanker is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and thus deems any state's interaction with it support of a formally designated terrorist group. There's still an active US seizure warrant for the vessel. The tanker's data initially had as its intended destination Kalamata, Greece, but later changed it during the voyage to Mersin, Turkey.Tracking data now shows it plans to dock at the southern Turkish port on Aug. 31 — an interesting choice given Washington-Ankara relations are at a low point over Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-air defense systems, and resulting cancellation of the US F-35 transfer.

Iranian Tanker Showdown Heads To Turkey - The Iranian tanker which had been detained for the past five weeks in Gibraltar has suddenly switched its ship data to show it is headed to a Turkish port, instead of arriving at waters off southern Greece, as previously planned. Reuters has cited real-time ship tracking website MarineTraffic to show the change in the Adrian Darya's (formerly called Grace 1) destination. This after the US State Department threatened that should Greece provide any aid or facilities to the vessel carrying 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil, it would be tantamount to "material support to terrorism". The Unites States says the tanker is controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and thus deems any state's interaction with it support of a formally designated terrorist group. There's still an active US seizure warrant for the vessel.  While the vessel never planned to actually enter a Greek port, listed as the port of Kalamata — especially given the overladen supertanker sits too low in the water — it's been widely reported that a ship-to-ship transfer of the oil was to occur off its southern coast. A US Statement Department statement issued Monday had warned Greece's help could be considered “providing material support to a US-designated foreign terrorist organization” — this according to a State Department official who spoke to Reuters.

Turkey Says Adrian Darya Tanker Bound For Lebanon -- A day after the Iranian oil-laden supertanker Adrian Darya 1 made a complete u-turn just as it made its way into Turkish territorial waters, Turkey has denied that it will enter port there; instead, top Turkish officials say it is bound for Lebanon.   Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Friday the tanker and its 2 million barrels of oil are headed to "the main port in Lebanon," as reported by Reuters.   It has changed course several times since being released by UK/Gibraltar custody weeks ago, and now appears to be circling in waters west of Cyprus.  Interestingly, in all the maneuvering it has actually come in the vicinity of its original suspected destination for which it was accused of busting EU sanctions in the first place, the Syrian port of Baniyas:  According to Refinitiv tracking data, the Adrian Darya, formerly called Grace 1, made a U-turn on Friday and headed for Turkey's Iskenderun port - 200 km (124 miles) north of Syria's Baniyas refinery, the tanker's suspected original destination.  Also on Friday the Iranian-flagged tanker again switched its destination, this time to the Bay of Iskennderun, Turkey; but analysts dismissed the likelihood of its actually going there.  Instead, the tanker is widely believed to be biding its time until it makes a hasty ship-to-ship transfer of the oil, likely "a few days away," according to the best estimate of TankerTrackers.com.

Iranian Tanker Still Bound For Syria; US Working To Disrupt Oil Transfer- Report - As the Iranian oil tanker Adrian Darya 1 still appears to be circling in Mediterranean waters off western Cyprus after it turned away from approaching Turkey's coast this week, a new Wall Street Journal report says it will ultimately attempt to offload its 2.1 million barrels of oil to Syria after all, in contravention of EU sanctions. The WSJ report issued late Friday cites US officials who describe a plan already in place to disrupt any ship-to-ship transfer that would get the oil into Syrian hands — precisely what UK/Gibraltar authorities detained the ship for in the first place, at the request of the United States:  The U.S. State Department is working to disrupt what it sees as the vessel’s Syrian plan, according to a U.S. official. The State Department has been monitoring two other Iranian tankers in the Mediterranean that could pick up the cargo...The US has further warned Egypt against letting the tanker cross into the Suez canal, according to the report, especially given Washington still has an active seizure warrant out for what the US has described as an IRGC-controlled vessel. As we observed before, all the erratic maneuvering and circling by the Adrian Darya 1 in the past two days between Turkey and Cyprus has actually put the vessel in the vicinity of its original suspected destination for which it was accused of busting EU sanctions in the first place — the Syrian port of Baniyas. As Reuters described based on tracking data, the vessel "made a U-turn on Friday and headed for Turkey's Iskenderun port - 200 km (124 miles) north of Syria's Baniyas refinery, the tanker's suspected original destination."  "The vessel’s plan, the people said, is to deliver its crude to smaller tankers near Syria. The new itinerary, with the stated destination of Iskenderun, comes after a failed attempt to offload the cargo near Greece, the people said," according to the WSJ.

Syrian troops surround Turkish military post near Idlib - Syrian government forces surrounded a Turkish military observation post in the northwest on Friday after overrunning nearby areas, upping the stakes with Ankara in its Russian-backed offensive against the jihadist-ruled Idlib region. The move angered Turkey, with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying his country’s troops will not quit the observation post as Moscow said that it has agreed with Ankara to “activate mutual efforts” to ease the situation in Idlib.  The town of Morek, where the Turkish troops have been cut off, lies in the north of Hama province, part of a jihadist-ruled region centred on neighbouring Idlib province that has been under government assault since late April. Government forces took control of Morek and other nearby towns including Kafr Zita on Friday, Syrian state news agency SANA said. Jihadists and allied rebels withdrew from the area ahead of the army’s entry into the strategic town of Khan Sheikhun on Wednesday and government forces took control without resistance, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.  “Regime forces have surrounded the Turkish observation post in Morek after capturing other towns and villages in this pocket,” said the Britain-based monitor. Speaking at a new conference in the Lebanese capital, Cavusoglu said “our observation point there is not cut-off and nobody can isolate our forces and our soldiers.”  “We are there, not because we can’t leave but because we don’t want to leave,” he told reporters, adding that the issue was being discussed with Damascus allies Russia and Iran. The Morek observation post, established under a deal with Moscow, is one of 12 the Turkish army set up along the front line between government forces and the jihadists and their rebel allies last year. On Tuesday Cavusoglu vowed that the Turkish army “will do whatever is necessary” to defend these positions.  The troops’ mission was to oversee the establishment of a buffer zone agreed by Ankara and Moscow in September.  But the jihadists failed to pull back from the zone as agreed and in April, government and Russian forces resumed intense bombardment of the region. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by phone Friday in a bid to de-escalate tensions over the Idlib offensive.

Erdogan and Putin meet as Syria offensive pummels Idlib - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday to discuss a Syrian military offensive against the jihadi-dominated province of Idlib, where Moscow and Ankara had set up a demilitarized zone. Syrian troops backed by Russian airpower have advanced in recent weeks against jihadi forces in the last major rebel enclave in northwestern Syria, and encircled a Turkish military post. The fierce fighting has all but unraveled a fragile truce deal struck in September by Russia and Turkey as the Syrian regime pushes north to gain control of strategic highways connecting the government-controlled cities of Aleppo and Hama and the regime's Alawite heartland in Latakia on the Mediterranean coast.  Last week, a Turkish military convoy heading to an observation post in Idlib came under attack in an air raid conducted either by the Syrian government or Russian warplanes. The airstrike killed three civilians and wounded a dozen more. The Turkish Defense Ministry "strongly condemned" the August 19 attack and said it ran counter to "existing agreements as well as our cooperation and dialogue with Russia." Turkey is a major backer of some rebel groups in Idlib, which is dominated by jihadi factions led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, al-Qaida's former Syria affiliate. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not part of the September de-escalation agreement and has carried out attacks on forces allied to the Syrian government, as well as Russia's Hmeimim air base using drones and missiles.

Turkey Affirms Its Claim On Cyprus Oil And Gas - Turkey will continue exploring for oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean waters around disputed Cyprus, and “No project can be realised if Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are not involved,” President Recept Erdogan said, as quoted by Cypriot media. “We will continue to defend the rights of Turkish Cypriots with the same dedication,” Erdogan said following a meeting with the head of the Cypriot Turks. Turkey, which recognizes the northern Turkish Cypriot government and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with the internationally recognized government of EU member Cyprus, claims that part of the Cyprus offshore area is under the jurisdiction of Turkish Cypriots or Turkey, and they are entitled to part of the potential oil and gas resources in the area. Turkey doesn’t recognize the agreements that Cyprus has signed with other countries in the Mediterranean over the exclusive maritime zones either. Last month, tensions between Turkey and Greece regarding the Cyprus drilling rights spiked again when Greece’s newly elected government said Turkey undermined the security of the eastern Mediterranean with its drilling operations off the Cypriot shores. “The illegal actions of Turkey, which defy international law are placing the security of the region at risk. As such, they are absolutely condemnable,” Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said, adding “We discussed this flagrant violation of the sovereignty and the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus perpetrated by Turkey.”    A string of natural gas discoveries in the waters around Cyprus have turned the divided island into one of the new hot spots for gas, along with Egypt and Israel. Just recently, the island greenlit a consortium involving Eni and Total to drill for gas in a new part of its exclusive economic zone.

Iraqi bloc calls for US troop withdrawal after Israeli air raids - A powerful bloc in Iraq's parliament has called for the withdrawal of US troops from the country, following a series of air raids targeting Iran-backed Shia militias in the country that have been blamed on Israel.The Fatah Coalition said on Monday that it holds the United States fully responsible for the alleged Israeli aggression, "which we consider to be a declaration of war on Iraq and its people".The coalition is a parliament bloc representing Iran-backed paramilitary militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.The coalition's statement came a day after a drone attack in the western Iraqi town of Qaim killed a commander with the Forces - the latest in attacks apparently conducted by Israel against the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. It added that US troops are no longer needed in Iraq. Israeli also launched a similar attack against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Beirut called a "declaration of war".The Iran-backed movement said late on Monday that the drones were carrying explosives.The Shia militia group, meanwhile, held a funeral procession in Baghdad for the commander killed on Sunday."There is no greater God but God!" the mourners shouted as they marched behind a banner with the words "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." Some trampled on an American flag as they marched.The Pentagon issued a statement Monday denying responsibility for the recent attacks and promising to cooperate with Iraqi investigations.  "We support Iraqi sovereignty and have repeatedly spoken out against any potential actions by external actors inciting violence in Iraq, " Pentagon spokesman Jonathan R Hoffman said.  Anger is mounting in Iraq following a spate of mysterious air raids that have targeted military bases and a weapons depot suspected of belonging to Iran-backed militias. The drone attacks have not been claimed by any side but US officials have said Israel was behind at least one of the attacks.

Iraqi political bloc calls alleged Israeli strikes 'a declaration of war' --A powerful bloc in Iraq’s parliament called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq following a series of airstrikes blamed on Israel that targeted Iran-backed Shiite militias in the country.The Fatah Coalition said on Monday it holds the United States fully responsible for the reported Israeli strikes, “which we consider to be a declaration of war on Iraq and its people.”The coalition is a parliament bloc representing Iran-backed paramilitary militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.The coalition’s statement came a day after a drone strike in the western Iraqi town of al-Qaim killed a commander with the forces — the latest in strikes allegedly conducted by Israel against the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.The statement added that US troops are no longer needed in Iraq. The field commander killed in the strike was buried Monday morning near Baghdad.  Kazem Mohsen was killed on Sunday “in an Israeli drone strike in Al-Qaim while on duty,” the Popular Mobilization Forces said in a statement, adding that he was a “logistical support chief” for the group’s Brigade 45.“Hundreds participated… in the funeral procession this morning for Kazem Mohsen,” also known as Abu Ali al-Dabi, it said.The PMF said one other fighter was severely wounded in the attack on Brigade 45, a unit based about 15 kilometers (10 miles) from Iraq’s western border with Syria. Two officials from the group said the vehicles targeted in the strike were being used to transport weapons. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists about the matter.Iraq’s PMF accused Israel of the deadly drone attack on Sunday, the first time it directly blamed the Jewish state after a series of blasts hit bases run by the paramilitary force.“As part of the string of Zionist attacks on Iraq, the evil Israeli crows have returned to target the Hashed al-Shaabi [PMF], this time with two drones inside Iraqi territory,” the statement said. The Israeli military refused to comment on the matter.

Israel Launched Failed Overnight Drone Attack On Hezbollah In South Beirut - Last night for the first time in over a decade Israel tried to carry out a targeted airstrike over the southern suburbs of Beirut. The apparent assassination attempt failed, however, when one Israeli drone fell from the sky, crashing into a south Beirut neighborhood, and another exploded near the ground in the early hours of Sunday. Hezbollah indicated its forces had "downed" the first drone, possibly through electronic intercept.  The second drone struck near Hezbollah's media center, and may have either been targeting this building or possibly had been seeking to take out Hezbollah commanders. Footage from #Beirut Southern Suburb and #Hezbollah stronghold. Citizens says they saw a 'drone missile' target what they say was a vehicle. pic.twitter.com/liA8d53MGI — Riam Dalati (@Dalatrm) August 24, 2019   Lebanon has slammed the Israeli aggression after the invasion of its airspace, and will take the case before the UN, while Israel has yet to comment. According to a statement cited in Reuters, the second drone had been packed with explosives:  Hezbollah spokesman told Lebanon’s state news agency NNA the second drone was rigged with explosives causing serious damage to the media center. Hezbollah is now examining the first drone, he said.  The Lebanese army said that one Israeli drone fell and another exploded at 02:30 am local time (2330 GMT), causing only material damage.

Lebanon's President Announces Israeli Attacks Are Declaration Of War -  After pro-Iran allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were all hit in suspected Israeli strikes in the space of less than 24 hours, signalling a new aggression out of Tel Aviv and willingness to risk yet another major Middle East war, Arab capitals are now alerting their armed forces to be on a war footing.  Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Monday condemned the "Israeli assault on the southern suburbs of Beirut" and told the country's United Nations Special Coordinator, that the recent spate of drone strikes on Lebanon amount to a "declaration of war". Especially in Lebanon, where the most powerful military force is not the Army but Shiite paramilitary group Hezbollah, tensions are soaring after Hezbollah media offices in Beirut were targeted by Israeli drones overnight Sunday. New Video of alleged Israel strikes in east Lebanon ~ an hour ago, targeting Palestinian Group PFLP.   If true, this may be 4th military incident in Lebanon-Syria-Iraq involving Israel in 24 hours. Via @tobiaschneider pic.twitter.com/RGLjEaWFyw— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) August 26, 2019  A separate Israeli operation the day following reached deep into Lebanon, killing a PFLP-GC leader in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley (a Palestinian paramilitary group).  Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah described the weekend aggression during televised remarks addressing the crisis as marking the first Israeli attacks inside Lebanon since the devastating month-long 2006 war; however, Israel has yet to claim the Beirut attack.

Israel Warns Any Hezbollah Attack Will Bring Reprisal On Whole Lebanese State - There's been a flurry of threats and counter-threats after pro-Iran allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq were all hit in suspected Israeli strikes in the space of less than 24 hours, signalling a new aggression out of Tel Aviv and willingness to risk yet another major Middle East war. Indeed Lebanon's southern border with Israel is heating up once again in the worst tensions since the devastating 2006 war. Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to shoot down any Israeli aircraft violating Lebanon's sovereign airspace after early Sunday a pair of drones targeted Hezbollah offices in south Beirut, and further after a follow-up drone strike reached deep into Lebanon, killing a Palestinian paramilitary commander (of the PFLP-GC) in the Bekaa Valley.“Hezbollah will endeavor to down all Israeli drones, which may violate Lebanon’s airspace,” Nasrallah pledged in a televised speech. “The era of the Israeli military’s undeterred attacks on Lebanon has come to an end. Hezbollah will tolerate no more Israeli drones penetrating Lebanese airspace,” Nasrallah said. Simultaneously, Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Monday said the drone strikes amount to a "declaration of war" and convened an emergency meeting of the country's top military and security chiefs.  Meanwhile in a potential return to the precise lead-up to the month-long 2006 war, which saw the Israel Defense Forces conduct a heavy bombing campaign across southern Lebanon all the way into Beirut, including the international airport, Tel Aviv is now signaling its forces won't differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.

Israeli plan for new West Bank homes branded ‘war crime’ A leading human-rights activist has branded an Israeli scheme to build 300 new homes in the occupied West Bank a “war crime”. Revealing the development plans, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid in a statement: “We will deepen our roots and strike at our enemies. We will continue to strengthen and develop settlement.”But Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director of Human Rights Watch, asked the International Criminal Court to note the plans to add to a case file on Mr Netanyahu. The announcement, he said, was “indisputable evidence of ordering commission of a war crime (facilitating transfer of one’s civilian population to occupied territory in violation of Article 49 of 4th Geneva Convention)”.The new Israeli settlement would be in Dolev, near western Ramallah, 17 miles north-west of Jerusalem, where on Friday a terrorist attack killed a 17-year-old girl and wounded her father and brother. At the end of last month Israel announced it would build 6,000 new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, which Palestinian leaders condemned as showing Tel Aviv’s “colonial mentality”.

Gaza 'State Of Emergency' As Blasts Blamed On Israel Were Actually ISIS Suicide Bombers - A strange series of blasts at Gaza police checkpoints that rocked Gaza City Tuesday evening has resulted in a rare admission by the Hamas-run Palestinian territory's health ministry that a prior statement blaming Israel for the new attacks was inaccurate. It now says Islamic State cells active in the strip are responsible.   On Wednesday morning Hamas declared a 'state of emergency' amid a crackdown on both Islamic State supporters and renegade Salafist organizations after at least three Gazan police officers were reported killed in twin suicide explosions on separate checkpoints after motorcycles detonated at the sites. A handful of others were wounded in the attacks from the rival Islamist outlawed group.   Currently "mass arrests" are underway according to local reports, yet Hamas officials are calling for calm while describing the attacks as an isolated incident. An Interior Ministry spokesman described that, “Mobilization of all police and security forces has been declared to follow-up on security developments in the aftermath of the two explosions.”This comes at a moment of continued heightened tensions between Hamas and Israel after last May hundreds of rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel, with corresponding IDF retaliatory strikes, and as deadly incidents involving Palestinian clashes with Israeli security forces along the border increased.

I've Never Seen Anything Like This - China Reels As Pork Prices Explode To Record Levels -  One could see it coming from a mile away, but still the breakout in Chinese pork prices as a result of the country's "pig ebola" outbreak and the ongoing trade war with the US, is a sight to behold. As the chart below shows, pork prices in China have soared to record highs in the past two weeks, adding pressure on a government trying to contain food-price inflation during the trade war with the U.S., even as the country's Producer Price index posted its first negative print in 3 years, putting China in a bind: contain soaring food inflation, or stimulate the economy and risk an angry public backlash (something we discussed extensively two weeks ago). Prices of China's favorite protein - used in dishes such as lunchtime dumplings and spicy mapo tofu — have surged 18% in China in just two weeks, since the week ended Aug. 9 and are up more than 50% in the past year. The average price of pork, excluding offal, in the week ended Aug. 23 was 31.77 yuan a kilogram ($2.02 a pound), according to data from China’s Ministry of Commerce. The cause for the price surge is well-known: African swine fever, which has been raging across China, and Asia, has decimated pork supplies. China’s pig herd had fallen 32% on year in July, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Some analysts expect 2019 production could fall as much as 50% by the time the "pig ebola" is contained.

Pentagon accuses China of breaking commitment to peace in South China Sea - China's interference in Vietnam's oil and gas activities at sea contradicts its professed commitment to peace, the U.S. Department of Defense has said. "Recently China resumed its coercive interference in Vietnam's longstanding oil and gas activities in the South China Sea," it said in a statement on Monday. The South China Sea is known as the East Sea in Vietnam. The Pentagon said Beijing’s activities were contradictory to Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe’s pledge in a speech in Singapore earlier this year that China would "stick to the path of peaceful development." "China will not win the trust of its neighbors nor the respect of the international community by maintaining its bullying tactics. "Its actions to coerce ASEAN claimants, station offensive military systems, and enforce an unlawful maritime claim raise serious doubts over China's credibility." The Pentagon said Washington would continue its efforts to ensure freedom of navigation and economic opportunity throughout the Indo-Pacific. The statement came in the context of Chinese oil survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 8 and escort vessels illegally reentering Vietnamese waters near the Vanguard Bank in the southern part of the South China Sea on August 13. The vessels had left Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf on August 7 after trespassing for a month. Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang said at a press briefing last Thursday that Vietnam had on several occasions called on China towithdraws its ships. The U.S. State Department said last week it was deeply concerned about China's interference in oil and gas activities in waters claimed by Vietnam, and the deployment of the vessels was "an escalation by Beijing in its efforts to intimidate other claimants out of developing resources in the South China Sea."

  China′s Yuan Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years -  China's currency fell on Monday to an 11-year low amid concern over an escalating trade war and the potential for a  global recession.The onshore yuan that circulates on the mainland slid to around 7.1425 to the US dollar in early Asian trading — its lowest level since 2008.  In the offshore market, the yuan dropped to 7.1850 against the greenback, the weakest level since the external currency began trading in 2010. China said Friday it would impose retaliatory tariffs on an additional $75 billion in US goods. In response, President Donald Trump ratcheted up additional levies on Chinese imports and called on US companies to leave.The People's Bank of China has allowed the yuan to depreciate to offset US tariffs and keep its export engine running amid a domestic and global economic slowdown. A lower yuan makes Chinese exports relatively cheaper. "The gloves are coming off on both sides and as such yuan depreciation is an obvious cushion against US tariffs," Mitul Kotecha, a senior emerging markets economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank told Bloomberg news."As long as China can ensure that yuan weakness is well controlled, i.e. it does not provoke strong outflows, expect to see further depreciation in the currency." China allowed the yuan to break the 7.0 threshold against the dollar earlier in August in response to US plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

 China’s central bank could be trying to shore up the yuan -  China fixed the daily midpoint rate for the yuan at levels not seen for more than a decade on Tuesday as Beijing remains locked in a protracted trade war with Washington.The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint at 7.0810 per dollar on Tuesday — weaker than the previous day’s fix, but stronger than the 7.1055 level the market was expecting, according to a Reuters estimate.By setting the yuan midpoint at a level stronger than expected, China could be signaling to the markets that it wants to slow down the pace of the currency’s depreciation, Tommy Xie, head of Greater China research at Singapore’s OCBC Bank, told CNBC.“Although China has been more open minded about its currency regime,” Xie said by email. While Beijing is giving markets a “bigger role to decide (on) the currency, China still monitors the pace of movement carefully,” he added. The onshore yuan, which trades only on the mainland and is heavily controlled by China, last changed hands at 7.1603 per dollar, after earlier dropping to levels around 7.1689 — it is weaker against the dollar by about 4% for the year.China’s central bank allows the exchange rate to trade within a narrow band of 2% above or below the day’s midpoint rate, which is set daily. If it deviates too far, the PBOC usually steps in to buy or sell the yuan and put a lid on daily volatility. The offshore yuan trades more freely than the onshore currency. It trades mostly in Hong Kong, but also in Singapore, New York and London; it traded at 7.1659 early Wednesday morning. The yuan has been a focus for investors, economists and other market watchers in recent months because it is seen as one of the tools China can use in response to rising American tariffs.

Google Latest Company To Abandon China, Shifts Smartphone Production To Vietnam - Google has reportedly become the latest company to aggressively move production out of China and in to Vietnam as it hopes to create a "low-cost supply chain in Southeast Asia" that "will serve as a springboard for its growing hardware ambitions," according to Nikkei Asian Review. Google, which is working with a partner to manufacture its smartphones, started work on converting an old Nokia factory in the North Vietnamese province of Bac Ninh where it will produce most of its Pixel phones, per two people familiar with the company's plans. The area has a special significance in the history of smartphone development: It is the same province where Samsung built its first smartphone supply chain roughly ten years ago. All of this history means Google will have access to an army of workers experienced.The push to develop a Vietnamese production base reflects the twin pressures of higher Chinese labor costs and the spiraling tariffs resulting from the trade war between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. internet giant intends to eventually move production of most of its American-bound hardware outside of China, including Pixel phones and its popular smart speaker, Google Home, according to the sources.The Vietnam production lines will be a key part of Google's drive for growth in the smartphone market. Google aims to ship some 8 million to 10 million smartphones this year, double from a year ago, sources told the Nikkei Asian Review. While Google's Pixel smartphone brand is still a minor player in the industry - not even ranking in the global top 10, according to tech research firm Counterpoint - it is growing rapidly.The Vietnam production line is a critical component of Google's strategy to boost growth in its Pixel smartphone brand. The company is planning to ship some 8 million units this year, roughly 2x the level from last year.

Demonstrators offer sparkling visions of unity as an estimated 210,000 people form 60km of human chains to encircle city in ‘Hong Kong Way’ --Anti-government protesters formed long human chains across Hong Kong on Friday night, standing on pavements in snaking lines that stretched along three railway lines in an unprecedented event they dubbed the “Hong Kong Way”.  They began at 7pm, flocking outside MTR stations and lines and at other gathering points, from where they spread out over a couple of hours to stand side by side in human chains extending from Kennedy Town to Causeway Bay, from Kowloon Tong to Yau Ma Tei, along the Tsim Sha Tsui harbourfront, and from Tsuen Wan to Lai King, as well as further east along the Kwun Tong line.Others trekked up the slopes of Lion Rock, the city’s famous natural landmark, where they turned on their flashlights and used laser pointers to create a spectacular sight. “Hongkongers, add oil!” they chanted, “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times!”Organisers said the turnout exceeded expectations as more than 210,000 people joined hands across districts. This was a revised figure announced the next morning from the original of 135,000. The length of human chains measured 60km (37 miles) in total.Social worker Tom Tse, 42, said he wanted to invoke the “Lion Rock spirit” of Hongkongers’ tenacity and perseverance during hardship.At nine years of age, Shanna was one of the youngest to make it all the way up. “My mother forced me to come,” she said. A 33-year-old civil servant who asked to remain anonymous said, “It takes time and stamina to climb up Lion Rock, just like the hardships we are going through in this movement.”Organisers had estimated that 44,000 people were needed to form a 45km Hong Kong Way and attract global attention to their campaign. They were pushing for their five core demands which the government has rejected so far: a formal withdrawal of the now-abandoned extradition bill which first sparked the current crisis; amnesty for those arrested; a commission of inquiry into the use of force by police; a retraction of protests being characterised as riots; and the revival of the city’s stalled political reform process.

Hong Kong protests continue into twelfth week - The protest movement in Hong Kong has entered its 12th week with demonstrations and rallies over the weekend to highlight the continuing demands for democratic reforms and an end to police violence. Clashes with police took place involving for the first time the use of water cannon as police attempted to disperse protesters. On Saturday, tens of thousands of protesters rallied in the Kwun Tong area to urge the Hong Kong administration to respond to their demands: the complete withdrawal of legislation allowing extradition to mainland China, the resignation of Chief Executive Carrie Lam, an independent inquiry into police violence, and the withdrawal of all charges against protesters.  The protesters also opposed the government’s installation of “smart” environmental monitoring lamp-posts which they say could be used to spy on residents. One of the lamp-posts was torn down. Clashes erupted between police who alleged that projectiles and petrol bombs had been thrown, and attacked the protest with tear gas and batons. Some 29 people were arrested. Yesterday thousands of protesters marched from Kwai Chung to Tseun Wan district in the New Territories resulting in further clashes. Police used two water cannons as well as tear gas to try to break up the demonstration. As tensions escalated, police drew their guns. One, who claimed he was physically threatened, fired a live round into the air.

Hong Kong police fire tear gas as clashes return to city streets - Hong Kong riot police on Saturday fired tear gas and baton-charged protesters who retaliated with a barrage of stones, bottles and bamboo poles, in another tense bout of violence. The city has been gripped by three months of street protests that started against a proposed extradition bill to China but have spun out into a wider pro-democracy movement. An uneasy peace had descended this week but that was broken on Saturday as thousands of demonstrators -- many wearing hard hats and gas masks -- marched through the industrial Kwun Tong area, where they were blocked by dozens of officers with shields and batons outside a police station. Frontline protesters pulled together a barricade of traffic barriers and bamboo construction poles, spray-painting walls with insults directed at the police. As the afternoon wore on some fired stones from slingshots, prompting a charge from police wielding batons and pepper spray. Tear gas swept across the road as protesters retreated, leaving a trail of broken bottles and at least one small fire in their wake. Several of the black-clad protesters were detained as officers swept through, with police justifying their charge on "a large group of violent protesters" who had set fires and hurled bricks. The city had appeared to have pulled back from a sharp nosedive into violence, with the last serious clashes taking place a week and a half ago just after protests paralysed the financial hub's airport. Tension flickered throughout Saturday's march, where dozens of the most radical demonstrators known as "braves" had gathered, battle-hardened by a three-month street campaign. "I understand being peaceful will not solve the problem," 19-year-old student protester Ryan told AFP, giving one name. "The government won't respond to peaceful protest. If I am arrested it is because I come out to speak for justice." Hundreds of thousands marched peacefully last Sunday, as a key protest group sought to regain the moral high ground in a city shocked at the level of violence. But Saturday's face-off underscored the dangerous deadlock into which the city has sunk -- with the government unmoving in the face of protester demands, and demonstrators stubbornly refusing to leave the streets. China has used a blend of intimidation, propaganda and economic muscle to constrict the protests in a strategy dubbed "white terror" by the movement.

Alibaba shows why things in Hong Kong may worsen Jack Ma isn’t just China’s most-famous tech guru. He’s also a one-man economic think tank. This latter distinction wasn’t part of Ma’s vision for Alibaba. But 20 years on, Ma’s US$450 billion e-commerce juggernaut arguably offers greater insights on China’s zigs and zags than Beijing’s notoriously dodgy data. No company is more on the frontlines of China’s middle-class consumer sector. And for now, Alibaba’s numbers suggest China is holding its own amid a deepening US-China trade war. Suddenly, though, Ma’s creation is acting as a weathervane of another sort: Hong Kong’s rapidly declining business confidence. Few financial stories earned more headlines in recent weeks than Alibaba’s US$15 billion listing in Hong Kong. Officials in Beijing were mighty disappointed that Ma did his 2014 initial public offering in New York. A Hong Kong share sale seemed just the thing to restore the city’s mojo amid intensifying headwinds. Yet the city could lose Ma again. He is shelving the deal as political chaos collides with Donald Trump’s China tariffs. Hong Kong is already on the verge of recession thanks partly to epic anti-China protests clogging the city’s streets. It shrank 0.4% in the second quarter from the January-March period. That was before giant demonstrations closed the airport at one stage and paralyzed prime shopping areas. The city’s ports, among the world’s busiest, were already under tremendous pressure from US President Trump’s tariffs. And from the slowest mainland growth in 27 years in the first quarter. Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s government is tossing US$2.5 billion in fresh stimulus at the economy. The immediate priority is protecting jobs and offering relief to what officials call “peoples’ financial burden.” The fallout from 11-plus weeks of pro-democracy protests forced the cancellation of almost 1,000 flights, disrupted business and sent investors scurrying from “Asia’s world city.” Financial Secretary Paul Chan warned that “recent social incidents” are still feeding into official economic data. Translation: investors haven’t seen anything yet in terms of weakening growth and volatile markets. Ma’s decision to pull Alibaba’s listing suggests even Chan’s caution could be overly optimistic. The Alibaba news came right after brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev shelved a nearly US$10 billion share sale. This is sure to deter other companies in the pipeline, dealing additional blows to market confidence.

More than two dozen arrests after chaotic day of protests in Hong Kong, as police are attacked with petrol bombs and tear gas is fired (timeline report) A 12th straight weekend of anti-government protests in Hong Kong took an ugly turn following an approved march in Kwun Tong. Demonstrators clashed with police and threw petrol bombs in Telford Plaza, a mixed-use complex in Kowloon Bay. Police fired tear gas outside Ngau Tau Kok Police Station after protesters threw projectiles at them. Trouble also broke out in Wong Tai Sin and Sham Shui Po. There were at least 28 arrests during police operations. More than 1,000 people showed up in Kwun Tong, an industrial district, calling for the full withdrawal of the now-shelved extradition bill and demanding an explanation over a plan to set up "smart lamp posts" along roads. The devices measure traffic conditions, weather and other data, but critics say they infringe upon privacy. The march followed a plan in the morning to cripple transport links to the airport, but that protest action failed to take off because of low numbers. The Kwun Tong procession headed from Tsun Yip Street to Zero Carbon Building in Kowloon Bay, and marked the latest in nearly three months of demonstrations that have rocked the city. The political crisis was sparked by the hated extradition bill, which would have allowed the transfer of fugitives to jurisdictions with which Hong Kong has no such agreement, including mainland China.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam pressed by range of Hong Kong leaders to meet top demands of anti-government protesters, sources say Hong Kong’s leader has been pressed to meet some of the top demands of local protesters by a range of distinguished guests who attended a rare meeting at Government House. Nineteen city power brokers and politicians gathered at the official residence of Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor on Saturday to brainstorm about how to broker a dialogue with those behind Hong Kong’s crippling anti-government protest crisis. The Post has learned that more than half of the guests Lam invited urged her to meet protesters’ demands to launch a public inquiry into the turmoil, including police conduct, and completely withdraw the reviled extradition bill. Three sources with knowledge of the three-hour morning meeting said Lam made clear she had not given a definitive “no” to the suggestions, but she also hedged about timing, tone and tactics. “The general mood was that the attendees felt the government needs to give a proper response to the key demands of protesters in order to bring closure to the situation,” a source said. “But [Lam] said it is not the time for an inquiry, saying the government has to wait until the situation becomes more peaceful.” A second source said Lam admitted to strong resistance from the police force that made it difficult to establish an inquiry. Various forms of public inquiries were suggested, the source said, including ones with and without investigating.

Police officer fires gun, water cannon used for first time on protesters in Hong Kong -A gunshot was fired on Sunday and water cannon were deployed for the first time in Hong Kong’s increasingly violent anti-government protests. Three police officers, who were chased and beaten by a mob of club-wielding protesters, pulled their revolvers, with one firing a single warning shot skywards at about 8pm on Sha Tsui Road in Tsuen Wan. No one was injured by the gunshot. It was the first time a gun had been discharged since the protests triggered by the now-shelved extradition bill began 12 weeks ago. Superintendent Leung Kwok-wing of New Territories South regional crime unit confirmed the incident, saying the warning shot was fired because “officers’ lives were under threat”. Five police officers were sent to hospital for treatment. Police said 36 people were arrested on Sunday, with the youngest being just 12 years old, and 15 officers had been injured. In an early Monday morning press conference, Senior Superintendent Yolanda Yu Hoi-kwan said police strongly condemned the use of “extreme violence” by “rioters” across the city. Yu said a police vehicle from the New Territories South’s Emergency Unit had been attacked on Chung On Street by protesters using metal poles and other hard objects at about 8pm, injuring the personnel on board. And about a dozen of officers from the unit were also attacked by more than 100 people with metal poles, long sticks and road signs on the same street. She said an officer had fallen down as protesters charged at him. Yu claimed the officer’s life was in “great danger” and a colleague had fired a warning shot into the air after repeatedly warning protesters to stop. Yu called the use of the weapon “necessary and reasonable”.

Hong Kong protesters rotate tactics between radical and restrained, keeping city guessing - The return of violence to the streets of Hong Kong has analysts observing the protest movement’s rotation of violence and peaceful tactics and suggesting that the government just missed its best chance yet to start a dialogue with the demonstrators. The police fired a gunshot on Sunday and deployed two of the force’s much-discussed water cannons – both were firsts after months of escalating turmoil, carnage and chaos. In more ugly scenes of violence, all hopes were dashed that the movement would remain peaceful after eight days without tear gas. As analysts observed, the day’s unrest proved that violence is becoming all-too-common – and peace, it seems, an aberration. Now, many are wondering which protest movement – the restrained or the radical – would show up at the next big march planned for Saturday. Optimism for a period of calm had been high since an estimated 1.7 million people gathered in a peaceful rally on August 18. In hindsight, it was naive to believe the respite would last, some note. Others said an opportunity had been lost. “The government has to understand that it is difficult to separate the peaceful protesters and establish a dialogue with them,” said Edmund Cheng Wai, a political scientist at Baptist University. “It was not proactive enough given the rare peaceful weekend after August 18.” Cheng said radical protesters continued to received strong support. He cited a viral video showing protesters with masks and riot gear being greeted by loud applause from hundreds of residents on Sunday when they passed by New Town Plaza in Sha Tin.“Radical protesters and peaceful, rational and non-violent protesters are two sides of the same coin in this movement,” Cheng said. “The rotation of these two tactics has been evident for months.”

In Hong Kong, Moderate And Radical Protesters Join Forces To Avoid Past Divisions The protests that have rocked Hong Kong for much of the past three months have followed familiar patterns. First, hundreds of thousands of people, including families with babies in strollers, pack the city streets. Then the sun goes down, the families head home, and the young men and women in black come out. They come ready to confront the "popo," as they call the police. One of them is a 20-year-old woman surnamed Chan. She does not want her full name used because she fears reprisal from authorities. She and her crew are dressed head to toe in black clothes and use tactical gear including helmets, gas masks and arm protectors. They carry walkie-talkies. Chan says she has been on the front lines of violent clashes with the police since June. But on a recent night, things were different. After converging on government offices after a big rally, some of the protesters in black convinced their comrades to pull back. Chan says at first, she disagreed. "I was the one standing there, saying we need to keep fighting," she says. But protest organizers said their strategy was to show the world that, after weeks of violent clashes across the city, the protesters could also be peaceful. Chan said her decision later to pull out was a simple, on-the-fly calculation: She and her fellow hardcore protesters were outnumbered and sandwiched by riot police. Asked why it was acceptable to use violence against police, she replies: "Because they used violence to us first."

China Is Sending Keyboard Warriors Over The Firewall - Last week, as rhetoric in mainland China turned increasingly vicious toward the Hong Kong protesters, China’s young “keyboard warriors” deployed over the Great Firewall en masse to defend the motherland. In organized battalions, they reported pro-Hong Kong Instagram accounts; flooded comments sections with Chinese flag emojis; and disseminated patriotic memes. Most of the platforms on which global opinion battles are fought, like Twitter and Facebook, are blocked in China. But using a virtual private network (VPN) to conduct organized, large-scale raids on foreign social media is not a new phenomenon. The practice of chu zheng—which literally means something like “go into battle”—goes back to at least 2016, when patriotic youth scaled the firewall to bombard newly elected Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s Facebook page with anti-Taiwan independence memes after an incident involving the Taiwanese K-pop star Chou Tzuyu and the Taiwanese flag on Korean television.   This most recent wave of chu zheng, however, differs from the “Facebook expedition” of 2016. Last week’s offensive appears to have been launched from two different online youth subcultures: Diba, a long-running Baidu forum similar in some ways to Reddit; and fangirl circles, or networks of young women who organize to support their favorite K-pop or C-pop idols. The mobilization of Diba netizens, who were largely responsible for organizing the Facebook expedition, is not that surprising. The rallying of Chinese fangirl circles, however, represents the first time this formidable demographic has gone over the firewall for the motherland.  It seems to have started with a fairly run-of-the-mill campaign to defend some of China’s most popular flesh-and-blood idols. It’s obligatory for any celebrity who would like to keep doing business in China to voice patriotic sentiments whenever there’s an international incident, so when the Hong Kong protests flared up last week, a flurry of singers and actors rushed to social media to post the Chinese flag along with according sentiment. Among them were the pop idols Jackson Wang and Zhang Yixing aka Lay, both of whom command huge fanbases in China. When reports came in that Wang and Zhang were being criticized on foreign media platforms for their pro-Beijing stance, Chinese fangirls mobilized to defend their idols. Soon enough, this movement evolved to focus on defending China itself.

  China sends fresh troops into Hong Kong as military pledges to protect ‘national sovereignty’ - China sent a fresh batch of troops into Hong Kong on Thursday, and its military issued a statement saying its Hong Kong Garrison will “resolutely follow” the central government’s instructions. It came as the Asian financial center continues to grapple with weeks of protests, that sometimes turned violent. Hundreds of thousands have poured into the streets of Hong Kong since early June to rally against a now-suspended bill. Earlier, state media reported that troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had moved into Hong Kong. The military’s moves were described as routine. On Thursday morning, the PLA’s overseas public relations arm issued a statement that said: “The Hong Kong Garrison will resolutely follow the instructions of the Central Government and the Central Military Commission, resolutely implement the ‘one country, two systems’ principle.” Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule under a “one country, two systems” principle in 1997. Under that formula, its citizens enjoy some legal and economic freedoms that mainland Chinese don’t have. The garrison will “resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security, and develop interests, effectively perform duties to defend Hong Kong, and make important new contributions to safeguarding Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability,” the statement said, according to a CNBC translation. Earlier, state-run Xinhua news agency reported that the Hong Kong garrison had “conducted the 22nd rotation of its members in the wee hours of Thursday,” Xinhua said. It published photos of armed personnel carriers and trucks carrying troops at the border, as well as a small naval vessel arriving in Hong Kong.

Exclusive: Amid crisis, China rejected Hong Kong plan to appease protesters – sources (Reuters) - Earlier this summer, Carrie Lam, the chief executive of Hong Kong, submitted a report to Beijing that assessed protesters’ five key demands and found that withdrawing a contentious extradition bill could help defuse the mounting political crisis in the territory. The Chinese central government rejected Lam’s proposal to withdraw the extradition bill and ordered her not to yield to any of the protesters’ other demands at that time, three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. China’s role in directing how Hong Kong handles the protests has been widely assumed, supported by stern statements in state media about the country’s sovereignty and protesters’ “radical” goals. Beijing’s rebuff of Lam’s proposal for how to resolve the crisis, detailed for the first time by Reuters, represents concrete evidence of the extent to which China is controlling the Hong Kong government’s response to the unrest.

Hong Kong is irreplaceable for China. That’s why the PLA hasn’t rolled in yet - The events of recent weeks have thrown up a constant canard. Hong Kong is irrelevant. Its economy is 3 per cent of China’s. It is just a matter of time before Beijing, Shanghai and especially Shenzhen assume Hong Kong’s mantle. Shenzhen is more liberal than the rest of China, it boasts an educated population of critical mass with new ideas and lots of capital to apply to leading-edge technology. Beijing and Shanghai are much bigger, with a huge hinterland, and have (if not hold) the ear of the central government. People in Hong Kong are regarded as pampered snowflakes who have far too many liberties than is good for them. We are doomed. Poppycock. Nothing could be further from the truth. If all that was true, the army would be here already – but we play an irreplaceable role in China’s foreign direct investment as a critical gateway to the world. If we didn’t exist, China would have to invent us. Hong Kong has six freedoms other cities in China don’t have. Four of these, like in the European Union, are freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital. The others are the rule of law (as interpreted by a judiciary independent of the government) and freedom of speech. Destroy these freedoms and you would indeed destroy Hong Kong’s special role. Money flows freely across our borders – and into the mainland, which remains largely closed to protect the yuan. In the last nine years (according to my friends at Natixis Asia Research), Hong Kong accounted for 73 per cent of the mainland’s overseas initial public offerings and 60 per cent of its overseas bonds. No less than 64 per cent of the mainland’s inward foreign direct investment and 65 per cent of its outward foreign direct investment was booked in Hong Kong. Chinese banks, which are now worth US$1.2 trillion, hold overseas assets concentrated in Hong Kong.We have our own currency, pegged to the greenback and backed twice over by our reserves. The peg gives us a great advantage in international trade when so much is priced in US dollars. Bank deposits in Hong Kong are a massive US$1.7 trillion, equivalent to 469 per cent of gross domestic product. Three reasons Beijing will think long and hard before sending in the PLA Companies can freely move goods and services in and out of Hong Kong. Some will argue that rampant fat-catism has resulted in cartelised industries – property, medicine, supermarkets and others – and driven up prices to eye-watering Swiss levels. But every jurisdiction is allowed a little fuzziness around the edges as long as it doesn’t prove too damaging. Our borders allow significant mobility of people – from global professionals to cleaners, although immigration from the mainland is restricted. Our young people have access to future opportunities in the Greater Bay Area. On the mainland, the system of hukou or household registration still inhibits the free flow of labour.

Japan automakers need not worry about U.S. trade talks outcome: Motegi (Reuters) - Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Tuesday he did not think U.S.-Japan trade talks would result in an outcome that would cause concern for Japanese automakers.  Motegi made the remarks to reporters in Tokyo after the United States and Japan agreed in principle to core elements of a trade deal on Sunday at a Group of Seven leaders summit in Biarritz, France. Under that deal, Tokyo made concessions on agriculture while Washington refrained from raising its current auto tariffs on Japanese car imports while negotiations continued.

Japan says North Korea developing warheads to penetrate missile defenses - (Reuters) - Pyongyang appears to be developing warheads to penetrate a ballistic missile shield defending Japan, the country’s defense chief said on Tuesday, pointing to the irregular trajectories of the latest missiles launched by North Korea. A missile is fired during the test of a multiple rocket launcher in this undated photo released on August 25, 2019 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya told a news conference Japan believes the rockets were a new short-range ballistic missile, according to a ministry spokesman who confirmed his comments carried by domestic media. Recent short-range missile tests by Pyongyang have stoked alarm in neighboring Japan even as U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the launches as unimportant. The United Nations Security Council discussed North Korea’s actions behind closed-doors on Tuesday at the request of Germany, France and Britain. The three countries condemned Pyongyang’s “repeated provocative launches” as violations of Security Council resolutions.

ROK Navy To Get Aircraft Carrier, Arsenal Ship As Part Of Ambitious 5-Year Defense Plan - South Korea's Ministry of National Defense (MND) unveiled on August 14 an ambitious mid-term defense plan for 2020-2024. In addition to known projects (KDX III Batch II and KSS III Batch II) the plan calls for the design of two new naval projects for the ROK Navy: An LPX-II aircraft carrier and an arsenal ship. As part of the MND’s mid-term defense plan released last week, 290.5 trillion won (US$239.06 billion) will be spent on South Korea’s national defense from 2020 through 2024 (a 7.1% annual increase).According to the MND, the new plan is need to counter the threat posed by North Korea, strengthen South Korean forces around the Korean Peninsula and gain new critical military capabilities. Those capabilities will be achieved via new programs:

• Non-kinetic strike weapons (EMP)
• Counter-stealth radar
• Aircraft carrier (amphibious ship capable of deploying F-35B)
• Arsenal ship armed with dozens of land attack missiles

India’s GDP Growth Drops to 5% for First Quarter of FY20, Slowest in Six Years India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in over five years for the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2019-2020, according to official government data released on Friday evening. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rose just 5% for the quarter ended June 2019, in a development that reinforces concerns over a slowing down of the Indian economy. Lower growth, data shows, is primarily due to a sharp deceleration in the manufacturing sector and sluggish agriculture output. In addition to this, ‘consumption growth’ was also weak – private final consumption expenditure growth fell to 3.1% in Q1 FY20 as compared to 7.2% in the previous quarter. The numbers that were released on Friday are below general market expectations: most estimates had predicted that Q1 growth would be between 5.7-5.8% Growth is down compared to the 5.8% recorded in Q4 FY19 and the 8% that the Indian economy hit one year ago in Q1 FY19. The last time that quarterly data was this low was in the Q1 of FY13, when GDP growth was recorded at 4.9%. “Q1 FY20 GDP growth at 5.0% was 25 quarter low. The growth slowdown was led by private final consumption expenditure, which grew 3.1% only (18 quarter low). Investment demand also remained lackluster and fixed capital formation grew 4.0% (4QFY19: 3.6%). Only government expenditure provided support to growth and increased 8.8%,” said Devendra Pant, chief economist, India Ratings and Research (Fitch Group), in a statement.

India’s downturn evokes shock, doubts - India’s current economic downturn has become severe enough to raise major concerns both far and near. As the International Monetary Fund raised doubts about the government’s tax revenue collection projection for 2019-20, two officials close to the Narendra Modi government have expressed their own worries about the state of the economy and called for urgent measures. The government projected tax revenue to grow 25% year on year. The IMF has asked India to explain how it is confident of meeting those revenue estimates given what has turned into an economic slowdown across the board. India has to respond this week, Business Standard reports. In 2018-19 tax collection fell short by 1.7 trillion rupees (US$23.7 billion) or 7.5% of the revised estimates for the year. With the economic downturn worsening, tax collection is expected to be further hit. The IMF last month cut India’s growth forecast by 30 basis points for the current as well as next financial years to 7% and 7.2% respectively as consumption has slowed down. ‘Grim situation’ Closer to home, Rajiv Kumar, vice-chairman of the government think tank Niti Aayog, said that the entire financial system is under threat in a situation more dire than has previously been faced in the country’s 70-year history, Press Trust of India reported. The government needs to take steps that eliminate apprehension from the minds of private sector players and encourage them to step up investments, Kumar said. “Nobody is trusting anybody else,” Kumar said at an event in New Delhi. “Within the private sector nobody is ready to lend, everyone is sitting on cash…. You may have to take steps which are extraordinary.” Kumar blamed indiscriminate lending during 2009-14 for the current crisis. He said it had led to a rise in bad loans after 2014, which reduced the ability of banks to do fresh lending. This space was occupied by the shadow banks with credit growth of 25%, but they too were unable to manage high loan growth and this led to a slowdown and liquidity crunch.

What is govt trying to hide, asks Congress as Opposition leaders barred entry into Srinagar  --A delegation of Opposition leaders, led by former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, which landed in Srinagar on Saturday afternoon to take stock of the situation after the suspension of Article 370, was not allowed to enter the city and was sent back to Delhi from the Srinagar airport.The 12-member delegation was detained and taken to the VIP lounge of the airport as soon as the leaders disembarked from the aircraft. A video clip, filmed at the VIP lounge and released by the Congress, showed Mr. Gandhi trying to reason with officials of the Jammu and Kashmiradministration to let them out of the airport. “The government has invited me. The Governor has said I am invited. Now that I have come, you are telling me I can’t go out. The government has said everything is normal. Now, if everything is normal, why am I not allowed out? This is a bit surprising. We want to go to any area and talk to five, ten, 15 people,” Mr. Gandhi told the officials who read out a government order that the delegation couldn’t step out of the airport building.The Opposition leaders later signed a strongly worded representation and asked the officials to hand it to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Governor Satyapal Malik.In their joint representation the leaders described their detention as ‘undemocratic and unconstitutional’.Leaders reiterated the issue of the Governor’s invitation in their representation to the Budgam District Magistrate. “We are responsible political leaders and elected representatives and our intentions are entirely peaceful and humanitarian. We are here to express solidarity with the people of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh and to expedite the process of return to normalcy,” it read and added that the J&K administrations apprehensions were baseless.

What’s Happening in Kashmir? Our Cameras Contradict India’s Official Story (video) NYT

Kashmiris Won’t Stay Silent Forever -- On Aug. 16, the United Nations Security Council discussed Kashmir for the first time in decades. But while the fate of the region has been the topic of debate in Washington, London, Moscow, Beijing, and Paris—the capital cities of the five permanent members of the Security Council—Kashmiri voices have largely been silenced since Aug. 5, with a security clampdown and a near-total communication shutdown in effect. The few video reports from the region, such as the BBC’s footage of thousands of demonstrators in Srinagar being attacked by police tear gas, have been dismissed by New Delhi as “fabricated.”  In addition to shutting down communications, New Delhi has orchestrated mass detentions of mainstream and separatist politicians, civil society members, lawyers, and businesspeople to keep a lid on information flowing in and out of the Kashmir Valley. But the Indian government has repeatedly said there is no law and order crisis in the state. I traveled to the troubled region of Pulwama to explore the situation on the ground; it took a while before I could find locals willing to talk to a reporter. Amid the roars of a massive surveillance jet hovering above, behind an abandoned lane, two 20-year-old men told me how their friend, Mudasir Hamid Dar, had been picked up by the police in a midnight raid a week earlier. The two men were told by the police that they would meet the same fate if they didn’t keep shut. Dar is a medical student who was preparing for the NEET examinations, India’s centralized and highly competitive entrance test to its elite medical schools. “I fear for my life, but when it comes to your own people, one is forced to risk everything,” said one of Dar’s friends. He said that a majority of young men from this area had been detained by the police at least once in the last two years, as they would throw stones at Army forces in dissent of the long-running security clampdown in the area.“Once innocent boys are picked up and tortured on baseless suspicions, they join the militancy in reaction. Then they’re declared terrorists by the state and gunned down,” said one of the young Kashmiris.“The abrogation of Article 370,” said the other friend, referring to New Delhi’s revocation of the constitutional clause giving Kashmir a degree of autonomy, “is gunda raj”—the reign of thugs. “These days they are arresting whoever they want, whenever they want,” added the friend, who is training to be a mechanical engineer. “Slowly, they will kill all the boys in Kashmir. They want to kill us and take our land.”

My 14 days of siege in Kashmir; a first-hand account from the valley - On August 4 — the penultimate day — while driving from Srinagar airport, I found most markets chock-a-block. Hawkers sold their wares and people were busy in festive shopping. Eid was a week away and one could sense a joyous excitement in the air.  Often ranked as one of the most beautiful places on earth, Kashmir is full of tourists during summer. Holidaymakers from around the world, and most parts of India, escape the summer heat and arrive in droves to picnic around the valley’s famous fresh water lakes, picturesque meadows and lush mountains.  It was in the middle of such a tourist season -- when it is usually hard to find a hotel room in Kashmir -- that the government issued a spate of advisories asking visitors to immediately leave the valley. Suddenly a major Hindu pilgrimage, undertaken by thousands of devotees each year, was also terminated.  You could sense some of that anxiousness around but people nonetheless carried on with their daily chores.  Not surprisingly, this atmosphere of confusion and suspense fed to rumour mongering. As the day progressed, long queues could be seen outside petrol stations and ATMs. People talked about an imminent Balakot-type strike on Pakistan and the possibility of an all-out war between the two nuclear-armed nations.  At the stroke of midnight, all phone lines went dead. This was preceded by the snapping of internet. It was scary, startling and disquieting. Suddenly there was this realisation that you were marooned and cut off from the rest of the world. By instinct I checked the phones of other family members.  No connection. The rumours were not entirely wrong, I thought.  That night no one slept well in Kashmir, fearful of what lay in store for them. Finding ourselves in the middle of a communication black hole, we had little idea that hundreds of people all over the state were being detained that night.  The government was leaving no stone unturned to make sure that no large-scale protests — that invariably lead to violence — took place in the run up to the big announcement. We found soldiers guarding every major street the next day. Early that morning military jeeps went around at 5am, announcing restrictions and curfew. With cell phones of no functional use, people switched on their TV sets — only to witness that the implausable was real. Amit Shah, India’s home minister, took all of seven minutes to announce the abrogation of Article 370 — a stipulation in India’s constitution that defines Kashmir’s relationship with India.The state stood dissolved. It was unfolding right in front of our eyes.  In less than seven minutes, more than seven decades of trust, and over a century of jealously guarded Kashmiri identity, had come apart. I tried scanning the faces of a few friends and neighbours who watched the special broadcast, live from India’s parliament, with us. Their jaws fell. Anticipation soon gave way to despondency. The loss was both personal and collective, clearly hitting at the core of people’s sense of belonging.

Ghosts of Kashmir: Indian authorities refusing to issue death certificates for civilians killed in clashes, say families - Families in Kashmir say several civilians have died amid clashes between security forces and protesters since India announced its decision to withdraw the region’s autonomy, despite the government’s official stance that there has not been a single casualty.India has imposed an unprecedented military lockdown on the restive region in Jammu and Kashmir since 5 August, when Narendra Modi’s government declared its plan to split up the state and put an end to its special constitutional status.Despite a near-total shutdown of both road networks and all means of communication, eye-witness reports have trickled out of small-scale protests breaking out across the state, during which at least three civilians have died, their families say, as a result of the actions of security personnel using teargas, pepper spray, shotgun pellets and other tactics.Ten days after the imposition of restrictions, the state’s police chief Dilbagh Singh boasted that “there has been not a single casualty as a result of clampdown”, and at a more recent press conference government spokesperson Rohit Kansal said he had “no reports” of civilian deaths.But speaking to The Independent in Srinagar, the regional capital, one doctor who asked to remain anonymous says hospital staff have received clear verbal instructions from the authorities to keep admissions related to the clashes to a minimum, and to discharge victims quickly, in order to keep statistics down. And in the cases of the three deaths, relatives spoke of their frustration at trying to get doctors to formally acknowledge the role played by the clashes – or even to issue them with death certificates at all.

Kashmiri Doctor Detained After Raising Concerns About Patients, Access to Medicine -- The last time Omar Salim Akhtar’s name appeared in the news was when he received the (student) gold medal for urology at New Delhi’s Vigyan Bhawan at a function attended by the vice president of India.A year later, he has become the face of the crisis of healthcare in Kashmir after he was whisked away by the police just minutes after speaking to the media for saying that life-saving medicines were running out. The Telegraph had reported that a doctor identified as Omar Salim Akhtar, a urologist at Government Medical College in Srinagar, had held a placard saying: “This is not a protest. This is a request.” Speaking to BBC Urdu, Akhtar repeatedly said that he was only trying to shine a light on the possibility of a looming “humanitarian crisis”.He added that poor patients were being unable to access the healthcare benefits under the Ayushman Bharat scheme for the last three weeks due to the restrictions on internet and landlines. The central government had put the state of Jammu and Kashmir under several communication restrictions, as well as detained politicians of all hues, ahead of thechange in special constitutional status and the bifurcation of the province into two union territories.Akhtar stated that many patients, including his own, were using their own money to buy drugs for dialysis and chemotherapy.When a journalist pointed out that the authorities had claimed that the health situation in Kashmir is normal, Akhtar said that the Ayushman Bharat scheme was based on smart cards which are swiped after which the details are checked. “I don’t have data right now that patient mortality has increased. But, it is also true that if a patient who needs dialysis three times a week, and can just afford one, then he can surely die,” said Akhtar.

‘Don’t beat us, just shoot us’: Kashmiris allege violent army crackdown - BBC - Security forces in Indian-administered Kashmir have been accused of carrying out beatings and torture in the wake of the government's decision to strip the region of its autonomy.The BBC heard from several villagers who said they were beaten with sticks and cables, and given electric shocks.Residents in several villages showed me injuries. But the BBC was not able to verify the allegations with officials.The Indian army has called them "baseless and unsubstantiated".Unprecedented restrictions have put Kashmir into a state of lockdown for more than three weeks and information has only trickled out since 5 August when Article 370 - as the provision giving the region special status is known - was revoked.Tens of thousands of extra troops have been deployed to the region and about 3,000 people - including political leaders, businesspeople and activists - are reported to have been detained. Many have been moved to prisons outside the state.The authorities say these actions are pre-emptive and designed to maintain law and order in the region, which was India's only Muslim-majority state but is now being divided into two federally-run territories.The Indian army has been fighting a separatist insurgency here for over three decades. India blames Pakistan for fomenting violence in the region by supporting militants - a charge that its neighbour, which controls its own part of Kashmir, denies.Many people across India have welcomed the revocation of Article 370 and have praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for taking the "bold" decision. The move has also been widely supported by mainstream media. Warning: Content below might cause distress to some readers.

Pakistan’s Kashmir Leader Says India Has Built ‘World’s Largest Open Air Prison’ Across Border The leader of Pakistan-administered Kashmir has condemned India's ongoing crackdown on its share of the contested border territory, calling on world powers to intervene.In a conversation with Newsweek, Azad Kashmir Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision earlier this month to repeal Indian-administered Kashmir's decades-old special status and a subsequent crackdown "a crime against humanity." Echoing Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, he called for global intervention, including from President Donald Trump."India should be stopped and it's the duty of the United States of America," Haider told Newsweek. "It's the duty of the American government, the American people." The senior Pakistani Muslim League politician also appealed to regional powers such as China and Russia, along with Europe, saying "the time has come for the rest of the world, either they want to support human rights or they want to trade with a country like India that violates them." Kashmir has been a subject of tensions between India and Pakistan since the two modern states were born out of bloody partition in 1947 of what was a united territory under the control of the United Kingdom. Since then, the two rival neighbors have fought three wars, two of which have been over Kashmir, which continues to see deadly clashes on both sides of the contested Line of Control. On one side of the line, India controls the state of Jammu and Kashmir; on the other side, Pakistan administers Azad Kashmir. India and Pakistan have long accused one another of supporting militant groups, but the situation deteriorated dramatically in February when the Pakistan-based Islamist Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed 40 Indian security personnel in Kashmir's Pulwama district. India responded with cross-border strikes that were met with retaliatory Pakistani attacks and a dogfight in which India lost at least one aircraft. The pilot of the crashed plane was captured across the border. Pakistan returned the detained pilot, but calm did not prevail in the restive region and fears of a new conflict were once again raised following India's decision earlier this month to repeal Article 370. The partition-era measure grants India's majority-Muslim share of Kashmir semi-autonomy. Modi's administration hailed the move as a "historic" step toward quelling unrest, but Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan issued a strong reaction, warning the resulting discontent would only lead to more cross-border tensions, or even nuclear war between the two.

Communication blockade in Kashmir: Deaths go unattended in Valley sans phones  Communication curbs have been eased to some extent and landline telephone services restored in most places across the Valley. Yet, in areas where communication blockade remains, a humanitarian crisis is unfolding.On August 17, 60-year-old Mohammad Ayoub Khan of Braripora area of Sekidafar in downtown Srinagar died of suffocation due to alleged teargas inhalation.His brother Shabir Ahmad Khan said, however, that their sister who lives in Baramulla, came to know about his death three days later.“Three days after Ayoub’s death, we sent a relative to Pattan to inform her after authorities eased restrictions.” There are scores of such cases. “I came to know about my uncle’s death four days after his death,” said Suhail Ahmad, a resident of Dal Gate area.“I regret that I could not attend his last rites.”Riyaz Ahmad a resident of Pantha Chowk said he came to know about his cousin’s death two days after his demise.“My cousin in Pulwama, was not keeping well. He died while restrictions were in place. His family could not contact us. The blockade has prevented people even from attending the last rites of their deceased relatives.”In one of the heart-wrenching scenes, a man hailing from Srinagar went to the airport two days back to receive his mother returning from Haj. Failing to see her he enquired from the person who was accompanying her only to be told that she had died and been buried in Saudi Arabia.

This Time, the World Is Watching in Kashmir  - The long and dismal record of Indian human rights abuses in Kashmir had, until now, been routinely ignored by the outside world. But now, the narrative has changed.  Media outlets across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America either report from the ground or pick up news as it appears in independent Indian outlets. They show images of desolate streets ringed with gleaming new concertina barbed wire and bristling with checkpoints, children injured and blinded by Indian troops firing pellet guns and even using catapults, and doctors and patients trying to reach hospitals turned away by soldiers at checkpoints. An independent Indian news outlet interviewed a young woman who was forced by Indian soldiers, in behavior worthy of Tolkien’s orcs, to walk 6 kilometers while in labor, to reach a hospital where she could deliver her baby. There seems to be no limit to the cruelty with which Indian troops treat Kashmiri civilians.  Perhaps because this is unfolding in a world that is grown weary of war and hatred, these stories and images are striking home. There has been a trickle of news of Hindu nationalist violence against minorities and Dalits in India that western media is no longer able to ignore. Perhaps the true colors of the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (who was rehabilitated by the Obama White House after Condoleezza Rica had denied him entry into the U.S. for his part in the Gujarat pogroms of 2002), are now being recognized.   Perhaps the lynchings, the signs of a sinking Indian economy, and the war mongering emanating from the Indian leadership — whose popular support was reaffirmed in a massive electoral mandate earlier this year — are making investors queasy.   And perhaps most significantly, as the U.S. prepares to pull itself out of the Afghan quagmire, it will need the help and support of Pakistan’s new government. This combination of factors has enabled the western and U.S. media to get in touch with their conscience. Insightful reporting and editorials are making front page headlines — and even Human Rights Watch has broken years of silence on the issue to warn India, quite rightly, to “step back” in Kashmir. Maybe Churchill was right after all, when he said you can trust the Americans to do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else.

BREAKING: Jokowi announces East Kalimantan as site of new capital - Jakarta Post - President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo has announced that two regencies in East Kalimantan are to be the site of the country's new capital city."The government has conducted in-depth studies in the past three years and as a result of those studies the new capital will be built in part of North Penajam Paser regency and part of Kutai Kertanegara regency in East Kalimantan," the President said at a press conference at the State Palace in Central Jakarta on Monday.He also said that he had sent a letter to the House of Representatives about the decision and that the government would prepare a bill regarding the capital relocation for the House's approval as soon as possible. The plan to move the capital from the island of Java was first announced by National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) head Bambang Brodjonegoro in April. The new capital is to act as the center of government, while Jakarta would remain the country's business and economic center. A Bappenas team tasked with studying locations recommended three provinces in Kalimantan, namely South, Central and East Kalimantan, which all fit the requirements for a new capital, including being relatively free from earthquakes and volcanoes.

"It's An Embarrassment": IMF Faces Humiliation, Billions In Losses As Argentina Braces For Next Default - On Friday, when CNBC's Steve Liesman was interviewing the IMF's new chief economist, Gita Kopinath, we suggested that he ask what the IMF's plan is for Argentina now that the country was facing what appears yet another bond default. And while Steve did in fact ask that question, he didn't get a direct answer for one simple reason: the IMF has no clue what it will do now that it is facing a historic loss on its latest, and biggest ever, $56 billion bailout of Argentina, which was completed less than over a year ago in September 2018.It gets worse: not only does the IMF have to scramble to preserve its current bailout, and credibility, having sunk billions into a country which humiliated the IMF at the start of the century when it defaulted last, the monetary fund has to decide whether to keep injecting money into a nation that many believe will soon default on its foreign obligations - and the IMF - again, after President Mauricio Macri just got trounced by the populist opposition in a nationwide primary vote, after his IMF-backed program - based around much hated budget austerity and the world’s highest interest rates - failed to pull the economy out of recession. What happened next, as we reported two weeks ago,  was a 20% crash in the peso and a collapse in government bonds, which pushed the implied risk of default above 80%. It was in this dire context that IMF delegates arrived in Argentina on Saturday and, as Bloomberg reports, immediately began meetings with policy makers, facing a deja vu choice from two decades ago: risk making the turmoil even worse by withholding a $5.3 billion installment due next month - or cough it up, and risk even more losses with the IMF bailout program on the verge of collapse.

Argentina Is Officially In Default Again- S&P Downgrades Credit Rating To SD - The IMF just broke its own record of incompetence: less than a year after its record, $57 billion bailout of Argentina was finalized, S&P just downgraded the country from B- to Selective Default - the equivalent to a default rating - following the government's "reprofiling" of its debt on August 28, when it unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper due to the continued inability to place short-term paper with private-sector market participants. Some $101 billion in debt is affected. However, the selective default state will last for just one day, as only a few hours later, S&P will upgrade Argentina from SF to CCC-. As S&P explains, "under our distressed exchange criteria, and in particular for 'B-' rated entities, the extension of the maturities of the short-term debt with no compensation constitutes a default. As the new terms became effective  immediately, the default has also been cured. Therefore, we plan to raise the long-term ratings to 'CCC-' and the short-term ratings to 'C' on Aug. 30, in line with our policies." Here is the full summary of today's action, per S&P:

• Following the continued inability to place short-term paper with private-sector market participants, the Argentine government unilaterally extended the maturity of all short-term paper on Aug. 28. This constitutes default under our criteria, and we are lowering the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings to 'SD' and the short-term issue ratings to 'D'.
• The administration is also sending legislation to Congress seeking support from the Argentine political class to engage in a re-profiling of the remaining debt, so we are lowering our long-term foreign and local currency issue ratings to 'CCC-' on heightened risk of a default under our criteria.
• As the new terms for short-term debt have become effective already, we plan to raise the sovereign credit ratings from 'SD' on Aug. 30. We plan to raise the long-term sovereign credit ratings to 'CCC-' and the short-term sovereign credit ratings to 'C'.

Irony- US-Appointed Democratic President Of Venezuela Threatens To Boycott Early Elections  - After Juan Guaidó, the self-styled ‘democratic president’ of Venezuela, declared himself to be Venezuela’s rightful ruler on January 23, 2019, he was quickly recognised by Washington DC and then dutifully by those nations subservient to US foreign policy dictates. For weeks, opposition ringleaders and pro-US mobs celebrated, believing that by some miraculous sequence of events – that the Maduro “regime” would fall within days.Seven months later, Nicholas Maduro is still in power, and the Guaidó mobs have dissipated. What’s worse, Washington’s “interim leader” Guaidó is now instructing his opposition followers notto participate in the upcoming legislative elections. In other words, he and Washington are shunning democracy altogether in Venezuela. Antiwar.com reports... In an interview on Friday, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido announced that he and the rest of the opposition would refuse to participate in any early legislative electionscalled by the Maduro government. Maduro allies have suggested they’d like to hold an election for the National Assembly in January or earlier. The parliament’s term is officially set to end in December of 2020, and elections would normally be held a few months before that. Guaido is the majority leader in the National Assembly, and has used that position to declare himself the rightful ruler of Venezuela. Guaido says the assembly will remain in place until Maduro is removed from power, arguing no free elections are possible until then. It’s clear Maduro would like to replace Guaido with a parliament leader more friendly to his continued rule, and it was also raised as a possibility that fresh elections might resolve complaints about the manner in which Maduro won. So far its not clear either side is willing to move forward with that unless they are confident the outcome benefits them.

Huawei May Install Russian Operating System On Its Tablets - Huawei has engaged in talks with the Russian government to install Russian operating system (OS) Aurora on 360,000 tablets to be used in next year's census in Russia, according to Reuters. The Chinese electronics manufacturer has been exploring various alternatives to Google's Android OS after the Trump administration put the world's second-largest smartphone maker on an 'Entity List' which may cut the company off from essential US components used for manufacturing, including Android. "This is a pilot project. We see it as the first stage of launching the Russian OS on Huawei devices," said one of Reuters' two sources. A spokeswoman for Huawei confirmed that they are in talks with the Russian Ministry of Communications, but did not elaborate. Last week, Huawei said the U.S. trade restrictions could cut its smartphone unit’s revenue by about $10 billion this year. Russia is discussing the use of Aurora OS on 360,000 Huawei tablets by August 2020. “Huawei is interested in the project. It showed samples of tablets that could be used,” the second source said. Aurora is Russia’s only OS and is not currently being used. Huawei is also racing to develop an operating system of its own in preparation for the worst-case scenario of being stripped of essential Google Android apps. –Reuters   Russia's state-owned Rostelecom has an exclusive contract for the purchase of tablets to be used in the upcoming population census next October. 

 (Dr.) Copper Collapses To 2-Year-Low As Global Macro Deteriorates --  Industrial metals such as copper continue to stagnate this year as major funds take an increasingly bearish view on global macro. The spot price of Comex copper on Friday fell 1.23% to 2.535, the lowest level in at least 115 weeks, dating back to the summer of 2017.Copper dropped 3.34% this past week amid new fears the US economy is quickly slowing. IHS Markit's flash reading for the manufacturing purchasing managers index, recorded 49.9 for August on Thursday, the first contraction since 2009. This is an indication a manufacturing recession could be imminent, seems plausible since a freight recession across is already underway; explains how the Trump bump in the economy has been exhausted and reveals further why President Trump is demanding 100bps rate cuts, quantative easing, and emergency payroll taxes: it's because the cycle is rolling over. We even mentioned last week how President Trump might hold an emergency meeting next week with advisors and top donors about how a mild recession could materialize before the 2020 election. In the last 89 days, copper is down nearly 15% from its high in April. On a longer perspective, copper crashed -58% from early 2011 to January 2016. Copper prices eventually troughed at 1.94 around mid-January 2016, as global central banks pumped the world with liquidity in 2016, and then the Trump administration in 2017 and 2018 injected fiscal stimulus into the domestic economy, which helped copper prices soar 62% until June 2018. Prices then plunged into late summer and fall of 2018, by 21% as the world realized a global slowdown was developing.

World Trade Skids for First Time Since Financial Crisis - Wolf Richter: Exports by China, Japan, and Eurozone under pressure — in part because of globally weak demand for new vehicles, which transcends the trade war. World trade volume – a measure of imports and exports of merchandise across the globe – declined in its zigzag manner in June to the lowest level since October 2017, according to the Merchandise World Trade Monitor by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. The index was down 1.4% from June 2018. This small year-over-year decline is the biggest year-over-year decline since the Financial Crisis, and it’s a reversal from the heady growth in 2017 and 2018 that had topped out at 6.7%. A theme emerges: World trade, rather than growing in leaps and bounds as it had done during peak globalization in 2017 and 2018 (which had followed a period of trade stagnation in 2015 and 2016) has now entered its first decline phase since the Financial Crisis. But it’s still a relatively tame decline, reflecting the manufacturing slowdown in the US, the EU, China, Japan, South Korea, and other countries, and not a global crisis. What happened to trade during a global crisis is clear in the chart: That this year-over-year decline is still so tame, despite the explosive trade-war rhetoric, pandemic threatened and actual tit-for-tat tariffs, and even tech embargos, is largely due to companies having found ways to brush off the rhetoric, dodge some of the tariffs, shift parts of their supply chains around, or push up the tariffs into their supply chains.By comparison, what happened during the Global Financial Crisis was a “collapse” of world trade when companies – uncertain if the banking system would still stand the next day – shut down their ordering process. This was when American consumers lost their jobs by the millions and curtailed their spending, and when car sales collapsed. From September 2008 through the trough in May 2009, the World Trade Monitor index had plunged 17.5%.But so far in 2019, there are no signs that the American consumer has pulled back. And despite the trade war, the index has declined only 3.1% so far from the one-month peak.The US economy is dominated by services, such as finance, healthcare, information services (such as telecoms), professional services (such as computer programming, lawyering, and engineering), housing, and myriad others. And despite the manufacturing slowdown, services are growing at a solid pace. About 70% of what consumers spend their money on is on services, leaving the US as the cleanest dirty shirt.

‘Senseless disputes’: E.U.’s Tusk says Trump’s trade wars are damaging global economy - WaPo - — European Council President Donald Tusk on Saturday said escalating trade tensions between President Trump and other world leaders risk throwing the world into recession, bemoaning “senseless disputes” that had ripped countries apart. “This may be the last moment to restore our political community,” he told reporters at the beginning of the Group of Seven summit here. Tusk’s comments came one day after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping dramatically escalated a fierce trade war between the two countries. Tusk is attending the G-7 summit with Trump and leaders from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada and Japan, and he said the summit comes at a perilous time. “Trade wars will lead to recession while trade deals will boost the economy,” he said. In response to a question, Tusk questioned Trump’s motivation in trade wars launched by the United States. “For me it’s absolutely clear that if someone, for example . . . the United States and President Trump, uses tariffs and taxation as a political instrument, tool for some different political reasons, it means that this confrontation can be really risky for the whole world, including the E.U.,” Tusk said. “This is why we need the G-7.” But in a sign that leaders are bracing for things to only get worse, Tusk said the E.U. was ready to retaliate against Trump if the U.S. leader followed through on some of his trade-related threats directed at France. Trump has said he will impose tariffs on French wine because France recently imposed taxes that impact U.S. technology companies. “If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the E.U. will [respond] in kind,” he said.

G7 summit statement issued on trade, Iran, Libya, Ukraine and Hong Kong - (Reuters) - France on Monday issued a short statement at the end of a meeting of G7 leaders on several issues, but it was not a communique along the lines of those usually drawn up at the annual summit, reflecting divisions. The issues were trade, Iran, Libya, Ukraine and Hong Kong. The statement said the seven industrialized nations were committed to open and fair world trade and to global economic stability. It said they wanted significant changes to the World Trade Organization to make it more efficient in protecting intellectual property, resolving disputes more quickly and eradicating unfair trade practices. 

Macron blasts Brazil's Bolsonaro for 'incredibly disrespectful' remarks about his wife -  - French President Emanuel Macron on Monday vehemently denounced Jair Bolsonaro after the Brazilian president apparently mocked the appearance of France’s first lady on Facebook. Macron delivered the remarks just days after a supporter of Bolsonaro posted a meme on the president’s Facebook page comparing the appearance of Macron’s wife, Brigitte Macron, unfavorably to that of Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and suggesting Macron was jealous. A comment from Bolsonaro’s account read, “do not humiliate the guy… haha.”

Poland And US Agree On Locations For New American Troops - Poland and the United States have agreed on six locations for new US troops to be stationed throughout the European nation, according to a Friday statement by Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. "We have agreed on six locations, we talked about a seventh location," Blaszczak said during a joint news conference with US National Security Advisor John Bolton, who - along with Vice President Mike Pence, are in Poland to attend a commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the start of WWII. President Trump will not attend, having canceled due to hurricane Dorian, according to Reuters. The military deal, signed in June, will add 1,000 non-permanent US troops to the currently stationed 4,500 on rotation as part of NATO forces.

Italian president gives Conte mandate to form new government - The Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has said now is the time to “turn a crisis into an opportunity” after accepting a fresh mandate to try to form a new government that could mark a turning point in Italy’s fractured relations with the EU. President Sergio Mattarella has tasked Conte with securing a pact between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic party (PD) in a move that would oust the far-right League from government and stave off early elections. “It’s a delicate period for the country and we need to exit the political uncertainty soon,” Conte said after a meeting with Mattarella on Thursday. “This will be a new season, a time for relaunch … it won’t be a government ‘against’, but one that is for the citizens and modernises the country.” He also said Italy, one of the founders of the EU, must return to being a “protagonist” in the bloc. This could be Conte’s second chance at leading Italy after he resigned last week, ending a turbulent alliance between M5S and the League. Conte, a law professor, has a few days to ensure M5S and the PD set aside their myriad differences to create a strong and lasting government. The two parties still need to draft a programme and pick a cabinet. One of the hurdles is the role of Luigi Di Maio, the M5S leader. The PD insisted he step down as deputy prime minister in return for them accepting Conte as prime minister. The other potential threat is the plan by M5S to ask its members to vote on any agreement with the PD on Rousseau, the online network it often uses to make policy decisions. It is unclear how many subscribers the site has or how votes are counted, but many M5S activists oppose the alliance.

German right-wing extremists planned ′hunt′ of migrants: reports - New details have emerged in the investigation into the August 2018 demonstrations in Chemnitzthat show extreme right-wing individuals made specific plans to "hunt" migrants and foreign-looking individuals, German media reported. The news sheds further details on the events one year ago that resulted in Chemnitz taking center stage in discussions on the prevalence of right-wing extremism in Germany and that nearly caused the downfall of Angela Merkel's national coalition government. According to research by German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, and broadcasters WDR and NDR, the Saxony Criminal Police Office evaluated chat messages exchanged between known members of Chemnitz's extreme right scene between August 26 and 28. On August 26, a German national was killed in a stabbing in Chemnitz. Non-German nationals were suspected of the crime, with a 23-year-old Syrian national recently convicted of manslaughter in the crime. The stabbing led to a week of far-right protests in the city that drew neo-Nazis from across Germany and saw migrants or foreign-looking individuals chased in the streets. Social media was also used to draw right-wing extremists from across Germany to Chemnitz to take part in anti-immigrant protests.  The Saxony report summarized that the demonstrations were marked by "great readiness to use violence against police officers, people with actual or presumed immigrant backgrounds, political opponents and journalists," the Süddeutsche Zeitung said. The report also stated that the chat participants used the word "hunt" ("Jagd") repeatedly as the events in Chemnitz were ongoing, and described wanting to or having violently attacked people of immigrant background.  The document also states that the chat participants boasted among themselves about having successfully hunted supposed migrants.

Could the far-right AfD really win in upcoming German state elections? - All eyes are on eastern Germany as elections take place in Saxony and Brandenburg on Sunday, September 1st. And, for the first time in German history, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could win in state elections – and make it extremely difficult for the established parties to form a government. The elections will also send shockwaves to Berlin where the so-called grand coalition between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) is already on shaky grounds. Brandenburg's government is currently run by a coalition between the SPD and The Left, who have governed together since 2009, with Dietmar Woidke from the Social Democrats as state premier. Parties have said they will not work with the AfD, so after the vote they will be scrambling around to try and form a coalition that would stop the group from coming to power. The AfD in Brandenburg is making waves over their use of campaign posters – not for the first time. For this election, the slogan is "Wende 2.0". Wende (turnaround) describes the period of political change when the Berlin Wall fell and Germany was reunified. Many have slammed the party for appropriating German history for their own gain. With slogans such as "Vollende die Wende" (complete the turnaround), the party is implying that if voters opt for them, they can finish the work of those who led the Peaceful Revolution. The AfD has also been slammed for displaying former SPD Chancellor Willy Brandt on its electoral campaign posters. The posters show Brandt captioned with his quote: "Dare to be more democratic!" Underneath the caption is the AfD's logo alongside "Vote for the AfD!" and "We're writing history!"

'You Get Nothing' - Johnson Refuses To Pay Brexit Divorce Bill If No Deal With EU --- With this weekend's G-7 Summit in Biarritz winding down UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed something that has been bandied about in the British press for weeks, if not months:He warned that, if no deal on the withdrawal agreement is struck, the UK would refuse to pay the £39 billion ($47.9 billion) divorce settlement that it's treaty bound to pay.  According to the FT, ahead of a meeting at the G7 summit in Biarritz with European Council President Donald Tusk, the prime minister said that while the chances of a revised Brexit withdrawal agreement being finalized were "improving," the process remained "touch and go." Reuters reports that Johnson is planning to pitch Tusk on the possibility that the UK pay up only a small fraction of the money - some £10 billion - if the UK leaves without a deal. Though a senior French official insisted earlier this week that Johnson's government would be obligated to make the severance payment regardless of whether a deal was struck, Johnson said the UK would not be obliged to hand over a significant chunk of the divorce bill, something that had been agreed upon by his predecessor, Theresa May.As Johnson sees it, the severance payment is one of the most potent tools that the UK PM has to coerce the bloc into reconsidering the hated Irish backstop, something that Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have both spoken out against (though Merkel has sounded more accepting of working out an alternative solution).Johnson has promised the people of the UK that the money could be put to much better use on "other priorities" like the NHS, farmers and "other priorities that are important to our people." Though Johnson was careful to manage expectations, saying that the EU was still firmly insistent on keeping the Irish backstop, he told Sky News there was still an opportunity to strike a deal, given the "change in mood" among EU leaders.

No-deal Brexit ‘will see more waste going to landfill’ - More waste could be sent to landfill in the UK after a no-deal Brexit, a major waste company has told the BBC. There are worries a no-deal outcome will disrupt the export of millions of tonnes of waste to facilities in the EU, so it will have to go to landfill. It would harm the environment and pile millions of pounds of extra costs onto councils, insiders say. The Environment Agency said it expected firms to find suitable solutions. "We are encouraging businesses who export waste to consider and continue to plan alternative options in case of disruption at borders," a spokesperson for the government agency said. Internal documents outlining local councils' preparation for a no-deal Brexit, seen by the BBC and backed up by waste industry sources, suggest there is a high level of concern among local authorities around the issue of waste, with a significant number of councils rating the possibility of disruption as medium or high risk in their Brexit contingency planning. Meanwhile, the UK waste industry's trade body has warned a disruptive no-deal Brexit could mean rubbish from the more densely-populated South East being sent to landfill in northern England. Currently three million tonnes of UK domestic waste is exported to the EU annually for recycling or to be used as refuse-derived fuel. Rubbish dump Edgefield NorfolkImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES Southampton City Council, in an internal document prepared ahead of the previous Brexit deadline, said that port delays "could result in recycling banks and waste transfer stations becoming full and potentially closing". In that event recyclables might have to be diverted to landfill or to refuse-derived fuel stations, the document said. The main concern within industry is that the practice of sending black-binned household waste to Germany, the Netherlands or Scandinavia will either be physically prevented or delayed by port congestion following a no-deal Brexit.

‘He’ll go down in history as ‘Mr no-deal’ unless they get rid of backstop’ – Johnson and Tusk clash at G7 summit Boris Johnson and European Council President Donald Tusk have clashed at the start of the G7 summit over who will be to blame if there is a failure to reach a Brexit deal. Mr Tusk said he hoped the British Prime Minister would not go down in history as "Mr no deal" ahead of their face-to-face talks at the G7 summit in Biarritz on Sunday. But speaking on the plane to Biarritz, the Prime Minister shot back by suggesting that failure to reach a Brexit agreement would also reflect badly on Mr Tusk. The Prime Minister said: "I have made it absolutely clear I don't want a no-deal Brexit. US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania arrive at the airport in Biarritz, France, for the first day of the G-7 summit (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)4 4 US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania arrive at the airport in Biarritz, France, for the first day of the G-7 summit (AP Photo/Peter Dejong) "But I say to our friends in the EU if they don't want a no-deal Brexit then we have got to get rid of the backstop from the treaty. "If Donald Tusk doesn't want to go down as 'Mr no-deal Brexit' then I hope that point will be borne in mind by him too." Mr Tusk had used a press conference at the G7 to set out the European Union's position ahead of his talks with Mr Johnson. He said: "He will be the third British Conservative prime minister with whom I will discuss Brexit. "The EU was always open to co-operation when David Cameron wanted to avoid Brexit, when Theresa May wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we will also be ready now to hold serious talks with Prime Minister Johnson. "One thing I will not co-operate on is no deal. I still hope that Prime Minster Johnson will not like to go down in history as 'Mr no deal'. "We are willing to listen to ideas that are operational, realistic and acceptable to all member states including Ireland, if and when the UK Government is ready to put them on the table."

Brexit: the blame game - I really don't know how many times it has to be said, but if Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is intent on the UK leaving the EU on 31 October – and he has made it clear that that is his intent often enough - then we will be leaving without a deal. There are few people who will sensibly dispute that the European Union is a rules-based organisation and, when it comes to agreeing treaties – of which the Withdrawal Agreement is one – there are no short cuts. Procedure must be followed or any subsequent agreement may not be legally valid. It is not only what is agreed that matters. It is also how it is agreed. Procedure in this is set out in Article 218 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and, if that procedure is followed, there simply isn't time even to go through the necessary steps to re-open negotiations, much less come to a formal agreement – which must then be approved by the European Council and ratified by both the European and the Westminster parliaments. To suggest otherwise - that we are able to go through all the necessary procedural steps to finalise a new treaty – is rather like gazing at an airliner from which the wings have been removed and earnestly discussing loading passengers for its next flight, ignoring the rather minor problem that the aircraft cannot fly. The rhetoric about reaching a new deal by 31 October, therefore, is just that – a cynical, empty ploy which should not be worth any discussion. If Johnson is to be taken at his word, and he is absolutely firm on his leaving date, then there is no possible outcome other than a no-deal exit. Certainly, according to a recent Opinium/Observer poll, the majority believes a no-deal on 31 October is now the most likely outcome. This, though, does not reflect an overwhelming sentiment. Only 37 percent of voters believe there will be a no-deal exit. By contrast, 22 percent think Brexit will be delayed for a general election or another referendum. Only 13 percent buy into the myth that we will leave with a deal on or shortly after 31 October. And only nine percent think Brexit will be delayed indefinitely or cancelled without a referendum. By that measure, Johnson has not been able to convince anything like an actual majority that he intends to keep his word – understandable given the man's history as a serial liar.

Boris Johnson seeks legal advice on five-week parliament closure ahead of Brexit - Boris Johnson has asked the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, whether parliament can be shut down for five weeks from 9 September in what appears to be a concerted plan to stop MPs forcing a further extension to Brexit, according to leaked government correspondence. An email from senior government advisers to an adviser in No 10 – written within the last 10 days and seen by the Observer – makes clear that the prime minister has recently requested guidance on the legality of such a move, known as prorogation.  Labour and pro-remain Tory MPs reacted furiously, saying that the closure of parliament, as a method for stopping MPs preventing a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit, would be an affront to democracy and deeply irresponsible, particularly given the government’s own acceptance of the economic turmoil no-deal could cause.The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, said: “Any plan to suspend parliament at this stage would be outrageous. MPs must take the earliest opportunity to thwart this plan and to stop a no-deal Brexit.”The prominent Tory remainer and former attorney general Dominic Grieve added: “This memo, if correct, shows Boris Johnson’s contempt for the House of Commons.  Senior MPs believe Johnson may think he can win a confidence motion if MPs call one, and believe that having done so he would have a mandate to drive through a no-deal Brexit even if he had to shut down parliament to do so. Any move to prorogue parliament would enrage the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, who said recently at the Edinburgh festival that parliament could stop a no-deal Brexit.The campaigner and businesswoman Gina Miller has said she will spearhead an immediate legal challenge should Johnson try to shut down parliament in order to drive through a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of MPs. A government source did not deny that legal advice had been sought. They added: “As a matter of routine, No 10 officials ask for legal and policy advice every day.”

Britain can ‘easily cope’ with no-deal Brexit, claims Boris Johnson - Britain could “easily cope” with a no-deal Brexit, which would be the fault of EU leaders’ “obduracy”, Boris Johnson claimed at the summit of G7 countries in France, as he continued to resist mounting pressure to spell out his own plans for breaking the deadlock. “I think we can get through this, this is a great, great country, the UK, we can easily cope with a no-deal scenario,” Johnson insisted in Biarritz, as he made his debut on the international stage as prime minister with a series of bilateral meetings with world leaders including Donald Trump, the EU council president, Donald Tusk, and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi. Johnson said preparations for no deal were being ramped up to help secure an agreement, but also “so that if and when we are forced by the obduracy by our European friends to come out on 31 October without a deal that things are as smooth as they can possibly be”. Johnson claimed food shortages – one of the risks outlined in the leaked Operation Yellowhammer documents on no-deal planning – were “highly unlikely”, and offered a “guarantee” that patients would be able to access medicines unhindered. The prime minister said that in the event of no deal the UK would withhold much of the £39bn financial settlement agreed by Theresa May – and insisted it was up to the EU27 to avert that eventuality. “If we come out without an agreement it is certainly true that the £39bn is no longer, strictly speaking, owed,” he said. “There will be very substantial sums available to our country to spend on our priorities. It’s not a threat. It’s a simple fact of reality.”

Trump promises ‘very big trade deal’ with Britain post-Brexit - President Trump on Sunday promised a “very big trade deal” with a post-Brexit United Kingdom after meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit. Trump also described Johnson as “the right man for the job” to deliver Brexit in remarks to reporters following the leaders' breakfast meeting at the summit Biarritz, France. The face-to-face meeting marked the first between the two since Johnson took over as U.K. prime minister from Theresa May in July. Johnson has said he plans to withdraw the U.K. from the European Union by the deadline at the end of October, but it remains unclear exactly how it will happen. Both leaders on Sunday expressed optimism about the prospect of a bilateral trade deal between the United States and U.K. post-Brexit, though Johnson acknowledged there would be “tough talks” ahead. “We're having very good trade talks between the U.K. and ourselves. We're going to do a very big trade deal — bigger than we've ever had with the U.K.,” Trump told reporters. “At some point, they won't have the obstacle of — they won't have the anchor around their ankle because that's what they had,” Trump said, referring to the EU. “So, we're going to have some very good trade talks and big numbers.” Trump predicted the two countries would be able to agree to a deal on trade “pretty quickly.” Johnson said he wouldn’t “dissent” from Trump’s remarks but noted that trade negotiations in the past have proved difficult. “I have memories of American trade negotiations in the past, and I have a formidable respect for U.S. trade negotiations. And I know that there will be some tough talks ahead because, at the moment, you know, we still don't — I don’t think we sell a single joint of British lamb to the United States. We don't sell any beef. We don't sell any pork pies,” Johnson said. “And there are clearly huge opportunities for the U.K. to penetrate the American market in the way that we currently don't. And we're very interested to talk about that with you,” he said.

Brexit: lost to the real world  - Despite having only one destination in mind, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is still fighting shy of admitting it. All he can bring himself to do is concede that the prospect of making a deal with the EU before 31 October is "touch and go".At least this is a climb-down from his previous assertion that the odds of a no-deal outcome were "a million to one" – yet another lie from Johnson to go in the history books to add to the many more he has told.Where he is still obviously delusional though is in his comments at the G7 summit in Biarritz, where he denies that there would be medicine and food shortages in the event of no-deal, offering the mindless mantra that "we can easily cope"."What I can tell people and as I said a few weeks ago on the steps of Downing Street", he burbled, "I think we can get through this. This is a great, great country the UK, we can easily cope with a no-deal scenario. And I know that's what people want".Not content with that, he managed to hold himself hostage to fortune by proclaiming: "Frankly I think it's highly unlikely that there will be food shortages of any kind". I would have thought the very first thing they taught in politician kindergarten was not to make predictions about events over which you have no control – but it seems Johnson never completed the course. Purely through panic buying, there could be major shortages of certain commodities. If there is then even minor congestion at the ports, and the fuel supply is disrupted, leading to distribution problems, this could easily bleed through into more generalised scarcities, as confidence in the supply chain erodes.

   Brexit: Sound and Fury - Yves Smith - Even though we are just past a Bank Holiday Monday, it seemed timely to check in on the state of Brexit, if nothing else because the G-7 meeting provided the opportunity for some posturing.  It is admittedly potentially hazardous to one’s reputation to speculate about what someone as fabulously erratic as Boris Johnson might do. Nevertheless, in his campaign for Prime Minister, Johnson looked to have committed himself so irrevocably to a Brexit on October 31 that it would be virtually impossible for him to change course, since it would take time to attempt to soften up the Tories. Plus it would also take time for the gravity of a Brexit to penetrate as well. So far, Johnson has acted in line with our expectations. We anticipated that he’d go visit European leaders while Parliament was away on summer recess if nothing else so as to appear to be Doing Something, and if he got lucky, to get remarks that No. 10 and the credulous press could play up as signs of progress. Angela Merkel gave Johnson reason to hope regarding the non-binding description of the future relationship, which predictably was played up by the Government and the press as a Johnson breakthrough. I wondered if this was Merkel yet again being her cautious self or whether she was toying with Johnson. She made a later remark which if she was not trying to make sport, was unhinged, as in suggesting that since the EU and UK would eventually have to come to terms in a trade deal, why not get it done in 30 days? She can’t be so clueless as to not understand that even the US, which dictates terms in its trade agreements, still takes over a year, and more like two, to get them done.  Needless to say, in Johnson’s next head of state meeting with Macron, after Merkel’s first chipper-sounding remarks, , the misguided optimism was put paid. And in terms of substance, the EU has made clear that even if it were to renegotiate, a new Withdrawal Agreement would be substantively the same as the old, but if the UK wants to put a concrete proposal forward, they’ll entertain it. Notice that despite Johnson making an articulate case as to why the Withdrawal Agreement was a non-starter for the UK, he has yet to provide an alternative. We’re in Groundhog Day territory yet again, with the tired threat of not paying the so-called divorce tab again rearing it ugly head. It is quite astonishing that most of what passes for the elites in the UK seem not to grasp that Brexit is not the end of the road, but merely an irrevocable first step in what will be a long and taxing process of forging new trade agreements with the rest of the world and making significant legal, economic, and lifestyle changes as a result of that. .

Boris Johnson, GMOs and Glyphosate: Irresponsible, Negligent and Criminal? - In his first speech to parliament as British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said: “Let’s start now to liberate the UK’s extraordinary bioscience sector from anti-genetic modification rules and let’s develop the blight-resistant crops that will feed the world.”Johnson reads from a well-rehearsed script. The ‘GM will feed the world mantra’ is pure industry spin. There is already enough food being produced to feed the global population yet around 830 million are classed as hungry. Feeding the world effectively, sustainably and equitably involves addressing the in-built injustices of the global food system.The never-ending push to force GM on the public under the guise of saving humanity is a diversion that leaves intact the root causes of world hunger and undernutrition: neoliberal deregulation and privatisation policies, unfair WTO rules, poverty, land rights issues, World Bank/IMF geopolitical lending strategies and the transformation of food secure regions into food deficit ones, etc.Even in regions where productivity in agriculture lags behind or concerns exist about climate change, numerous high-level reports have recommended that (non-GMO) agroecological practices should be encouraged to enhance biodiversity and deal with food and climate crises. However, pro-Brexiteer Conservative politicians talk of the essential need for Britain and the world to adopt GM is little more than an attempt to justify a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington that will effectively incorporate the UK into the US’s regulatory food regime. The type of ‘liberation’ Johnson really means is the UK adopting unassessed GM crops and food and a gutting of food safety and environmental standards.

Boris Johnson’s dramatic immigration u-turn leaves 2.5m uncertain of their future - Less than a month after Boris Johnson officially became the UK’s prime minister, his government has announced changes to the status of EU citizens after the current deadline for UK withdrawal from the EU – October 31, 2019.The new home secretary, Priti Patel, has said that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on that day, then free movement will end immediately for all EU citizens in the UK.This has caused much anxiety and confusion among the almost 3.5m EU citizens in the UK – 2.5m of whom have not yet registered for settled status, having been given a deadline of 2020 to get it done.The previous government, led by Theresa May, made very different promises to these people. They were told that the UK wanted to “guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain … as early as we can.”. It appears that the new government has gone back on this promise.EU citizens are still welcome to visit the UK for short trips without a visa. However, anyone planning to stay long-term after October 31 will be subject to proposed new rules if the UK leaves without a deal. So what is being planned by the new government in case of a no-deal for EU citizens?Ending free movement on October 31 means that there would be no grace period for anyone who arrived after this date. A previous transition period was set to last until December 31, 2020. During this time, EU citizens arriving after Brexit day would enjoy the same rights as those who were there before.Now, EU citizens would be subject to the planned new immigration system immediately.The Department of Health has also said that after October 31, 2019, without a deal, NHS trusts will have to start to charge EU citizens for previously free treatment. This would mean NHS trusts would need to check the immigration status of EU citizens seeking treatment. This proposal has already been criticised by the British Medical Association. It would add more work to an NHS already under great strain. Aside from anything else, the plan has been criticised for being impractical. The previous government admitted in January 2019 there needed to be some time between the end of freedom of movement and a new immigration system coming into force. This is because it would be difficult for employers, universities, landlords and others to distinguish between pre-exit residents and post-withdrawal arrivals. In particular, businesses have said it will make it difficult for them to recruit workers.

Brexit: a plague on both their houses - On the one hand we have a government in office, surviving on the slenderest of majorities only because the opposition parties can't muster a credible vote of no confidence challenge. By a perversity of the Fixed Term Elections Act, a half-cocked vote actually strengthens the Oaf's position, leaving him in office by default ready to pursue an unwanted no-deal scenario. On the other hand, we have essentially powerless opposition parties who, deprived of the traditional means of tabling an unencumbered vote of no confidence, are seeking ever-more arcane procedural means of frustrating the majority intent of the electorate in the 2016 referendum. And while declaring their intent to delay Brexit, it is no secret that the primary aim of many of theChurch House cabal, which tabled its self-important declaration yesterday, is to stop Brexit altogether. Thus, over the three-years-plus post-referendum period when the focus should have been on implementing the decision of the referendum – while at the same time respecting the wishes and rights of the losing minority (and the politically uncommitted) - the political classes have turned an ostensibly straightforward task into an utter shambles. With the complicity of an ignorant and venal media, they have managed to represent two entirely unappealing scenarios – a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit at all – into what appears to be a binary contest reflecting the mainstream views of the population. Yet, if one was to take of no end of opinion polls, the majority of public opinion – over time – has favoured a "middle way", usually representing some form of arrangement along the lines of the Efta/EEA scenario (the so-called "Norway option").

Brexit: Queen approves Boris Johnson's plan to suspend parliament, making a no-deal Brexit more likely - U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has scheduled the formal reopening of parliament for October 14 — a highly-controversial move that would restrict parliamentary time before the Brexit deadline and increase the chances of the U.K. leaving the EU with no deal. After initial media reports, Johnson confirmed Wednesday morning that parliament would be suspended days after lawmakers return from their summer recess, and would come back for the Queen’s Speech outlining the government’s post-Brexit plans on October 14. This speech marks the reopening of parliament and the October 14 date would mean that parliamentary business would be delayed, restricting time before the October 31 Brexit deadline. The U.K. queen approved Johnson’s plans later on Wednesday afternoon. Opposition parties on Tuesday signaled their intent to unite in creating a law to block Johnson from forcing a no-deal Brexit. A U.K. withdrawal with no deal has faced widespread opposition in the House of Commons and is seen as potentially damaging to Britain’s economy, according to several projections. Therefore, Johnson’s move Wednesday is seen as an attempt by the government to stifle the creation of this law and force through Brexit, one of the U.K. leader’s key promises upon taking power. However, Johnson said Wednesday that lawmakers will still have ample time to debate Brexit and it was untrue that he was trying to sideline parliament on the issue. The pound fell by 1% to below the $1.22 mark on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. London time, but slightly pared losses to trade 0.6% down at $1.2211 by late morning. Parliament returns next week and will sit until September 9, at which point MPs (Members of Parliament) would typically go on recess for three weeks during a season of political party conferences. Johnson’s move effectively extends the recess, through declaring a queen’s speech, to five weeks. A queen’s speech, a norm when a new government takes power in Britain, also requires five days of debate afterwards. This makes it harder for MPs to use legislation as there would not be any room on the parliamentary schedule until this is completed.

Brexit: Focusing the Mind -  Yves Smith - As most interested readers already know well, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson took the aggressive step of exploiting established practices to limit the amount of time in which Parliament is in session before the Brexit date of October 31. Even though it was hardly a secret that proroguing Parliament was an option, it appears it wasn’t taken seriously.Mind you, as much as the Government’s ploy is awfully cheeky, it’s not as if Parliament was distinguishing itself in terms of its seriousness in trying to stop Brexit. Parliament took its customary summer recess. Perhaps I missed it, but I did not see any serious effort afoot to curtail the normal autumn caucus recess. As a result, the practical impact of this gambit is to reduce the time in which Parliament was set to be in session on its normal schedule by a mere four days.Nevertheless, the press and a big swathe of the general public reacted as if Johnson were planning to roast babies alive. For instance from Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament is an affront to democracy in the Financial Times:Boris Johnson has detonated a bomb under the constitutional apparatus of the United Kingdom. The prime minister’s request to the Queen to suspend parliament for up to five weeks, ostensibly to prepare a new legislative programme, is without modern precedent. It is an intolerable attempt to silence parliament until it can no longer halt a disastrous crash-out by the UK from the EU on October 31. The seat of British democracy, long admired worldwide, is being denied a say on the most consequential decision facing the country in more than four decades. So, too, are the British people — in whose name Mr Johnson claims to be acting. It is time for parliamentarians to bring down his government in a no-confidence vote, paving the way for an election in which the people can express their will.Help me. This sort of misinformation is what got the UK in this mess in the first place. I’m no fan of Brexit, but where was the Financial Times when Parliament approved the Withdrawal Act? Did they miss that the only reason Parliament had a say after that was that the Government lost a court case on the grounds that a withdrawal agreement would affect citizens’ rights? And most important, that Brexit is a default, and the only ways out are the Withdrawal Agreement that May negotiated and Parliament repeatedly rejected or revoking Article 50, which is still a third rail issue for most MPs? And more recently, that the Institute of Government described at some length why it would be very difficult for Parliament to stop a Prime Minister that was determined to deliver Brexit? But the pink paper has plenty of company:

Boris Johnson Is Planning A Series Of Extreme Measures In The Coming Weeks To Force Through Brexit  - Boris Johnson’s surprise move to ask the Queen to suspend Parliament for five weeks in the run-up to the Brexit deadline on Oct. 31 is just the opening salvo of a meticulously constructed Downing Street strategy to eat up time and head off attempts by rebel MPs to block a no-deal exit, BuzzFeed News can reveal. The prorogation of Parliament was described as “profoundly undemocratic” by former chancellor Philip Hammond and a “constitutional outrage” by Commons speaker John Bercow on Wednesday. That rebel anger is certain to rise if Number 10 implements a series of extreme measures to force through Brexit on Halloween, as the prime minister has repeatedly promised.BuzzFeed News has learned that in the last few days, Johnson’s senior team — led by his chief of staff Dominic Cummings and director of legislative affairs Nikki da Costa — has explored a number of increasingly controversial proposals it could deploy depending on the success of rebel attempts to thwart Brexit. The ideas under consideration include the following:

• Attempting to disrupt a Commons debate on Northern Ireland power-sharing due on Sept. 9, a day which could be used by rebels to attempt to delay Brexit. It is described by Johnson allies as a “time bomb” set for them in the final weeks of Theresa May’s premiership.
• Determining whether Johnson would be breaking the law by ignoring any successful rebel legislation or refusing to resign in the event he lost a vote of no confidence.
• Using a variety of mechanisms, including a potential budget, to create new Commons debates and further reduce time for rebels to act.
• Using the prorogation of Parliament to “kill the bill” by rebel MPs and force them to table it again after the Queen’s Speech on Oct. 14.
• Creating new bank holidays to prevent the House of Commons from being recalled during the prorogation period.
• Filibustering any bill by rebel MPs attempting to force Johnson to delay Brexit when it reaches the House of Lords.
• Ennobling new pro-Brexit peers as a last resort to kill any such bill in the Lords.
• Exploring what the consequences would be if Johnson advised the Queen not to give royal assent to any legislation passed by Parliament delaying Brexit.

The measures were devised by the prime minister’s senior aides who have spent the summer in their Downing Street bunker war-gaming how to respond to potential parliamentary manoeuvres by MPs determined to block no deal.  Number 10's prorogation plan was ready to go and be put into action on Tuesday evening, just hours after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn agreed to a pact with the so-called Remainer “rebel alliance” seeking to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Why it makes sense for Boris Johnson to behave like Donald Trump - Boris Johnson is being widely accused of subverting the British version of democracy with his plan to suspend or prorogue parliament for four weeks – unprecedented in modern times. His apparent aim is to make it much harder for MPs to take control of the process of when and whether the UK leaves the EU. But in behaving more like a Trumpian president than a British prime minister, he is simply following the logic of the massive constitutional changes that the 2010 and 2015 parliaments perhaps recklessly and thoughtlessly pushed through. These were, of course, the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act and the referendum on whether to leave the EU. Johnson himself is clear he is only following through on what parliament set in train – his consistent justification for his actions is he is determined to put into force the votes of more than 17 million people who voted for Brexit in 2016. He sets himself up as the voice of a country that expects MPs to ‘do the right thing and honour the pledge they made to the people [to Brexit].’ As the leader of the Vote Leave campaign that triumphed in the referendum, he is in a sense arguing he has a personal and direct mandate for Brexit. He is equating the 2016 referendum with a presidential election. And for the avoidance of doubt, it is not as outrageous as some argue that he is doing this. What was always outrageous, a constitutional horror, was that David Cameron should have so recklessly grafted on to the UK’s parliamentary traditions the idea that on the biggest and most complicated decisions – whether we stay or leave the EU, the fairest system for electing MPs, whether Scotland should be an independent nation – direct democracy trumps centuries of parliamentary democracy.

Labour plans to use parliament to thwart no-deal Brexit - Britain's Labour Party has said it will trigger an emergency debate in parliament next week to try to stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking the UK out of the European Union without a withdrawal deal. Mr Johnson used a parliamentary mechanism yesterday to order the propogation or suspension of parliament for almost a month. The speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, said the move was a constitutional outrage as it limited the time that parliament has to debate and shape the course of British history. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said that as soon as parliament returns from its summer break on Tuesday, his party will initiate a process to legislate against a no-deal Brexit that he said would be damaging for jobs and the economy. "What we are going to do is try to politically stop him (Mr Johnson) on Tuesday with a parliamentary process in order to legislate to prevent a no-deal Brexit and also to try and prevent him shutting down parliament in this utterly crucial period," Mr Corbyn told reporters. "This country is in danger of crashing out on the 31st of October with no deal," he said. "We have got to stop that and that is exactly what we will be doing next Tuesday." Five other opposition parties, including the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, later issued a joint statement with Labour calling on Mr Johnson to let legislators vote on whether parliament should be suspended. The prime minister's move to suspend parliament for longer than usual provoked strong criticism from many lawmakers, including some members of Mr Johnson's Conservative Party. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Brexit supporter who is in charge of managing government business in parliament, said opponents were making "the candy-floss of outrage" and dared them to do their worst. There is a small majority against a no-deal Brexit in the Commons, although it is unclear if opponents of Mr Johnson within the Conservatives would collapse his government in a vote of no confidence.

Queen may be advised to sack Johnson if he loses support of the suspended house - Queen Elizabeth has consented to proroguing the British parliament from September 9th until October 14th at the request of her prime minister, Boris Johnson. The House of Commons is elected for a period of five years, but this is divided into sessions that normally last for between one and two years. Prorogation of parliament is a procedure under which the prime minister advises the queen to end the current parliamentary session and to set a date for the beginning of a new one. During this gap between the end of one session and the beginning of another, parliament is considered to be “prorogued” and does not sit. In recent times, the period of prorogation has typically been for about a week. Johnson’s move to suspend parliament for five weeks is very much out of line with the practice of recent decades. Why has Johnson done this? The main advantage for him is that it drastically reduces the time available for MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit to pass legislation forcing the government to request an extension of article 50. This is significant, because in recent days, opposition parties had agreed that this was their preferred option to prevent no deal. The other option, a vote of no-confidence, is much more difficult. It involves Tory rebels engaging in the psychologically more difficult process of voting no confidence in a conservative prime minister. More importantly, if the opposition cannot coalesce around a replacement prime minster within 14 days of a no-confidence vote, an election will follow and, as sitting PM, Johnson is entitled to set the election date for after Brexit, due to take place on October 31st. However, even if the prorogation has kicked in and parliament is no longer sitting, it could be possible for this support to be indicated informally by means such as MPs signing a letter indicating support for a particular candidate. If Johnson refused to resign despite majority support for someone else, a constitutional crisis would ensue. Again there are no clear precedents, but it is possible that the queen, acting on the advice of civil servants, would have to fire him and call on the person who has the support of a majority of MPs to form a government. This government could then request an extension of article 50 and call an election.

Ireland says Britain ‘totally unreasonable’ in Brexit backstop dispute (Reuters) - Ireland accused Britain of being “totally unreasonable” over Brexit on Friday, saying London had not made credible proposals to replace the Irish border backstop. But the British government insisted it had offered ways of solving the key sticking point. More than three years after the country voted in a referendum to leave the bloc, Britain is heading toward a showdown with the European Union over its plans to leave the bloc, which is due to take place in just over two months time. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s team had not offered any concrete alternatives to the existing planned ‘backstop’, which the EU wants to ensure an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. “Boris Johnson is outlining a very clear and firm position but it is a totally unreasonable position that the EU cannot facilitate and he must know that,” Coveney said in an interview with Ireland’s Newstalk radio. In separate remarks to reporters on arriving in Helsinki for talks with his EU peers, Coveney said: “We all want to get a deal but, at the moment, nothing credible has come from the UK government in terms of alternatives to the backstop,” “If there are alternatives to the backstop that do the same job, well then let’s hear them. And if we can work out a deal on that basis, so be it. But it’s got to be credible,” Coveney said. Asked about Coveney’s remarks, British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps insisted Britain had made alternative proposals to replace the backstop, and it was wrong of Ireland and other EU countries to suggest otherwise.Johnson says he must have the backstop removed to convince the UK parliament to ratify the deal. The EU has said it is willing to listen to London’s ideas.

Shutting Down Parliament Is Worse Than a Coup. It’s a Mistake. Ever since U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31 “do or die,” the slogan has threatened to come back to haunt him. That’s perhaps why Johnson—a man who has always put his own advancement above anything else and who became prime minister by making contradictory promises to the different factions within his profoundly divided Conservative Party—is now so intent on bringing the United Kingdom out of the European Union: because he has gambled his political life on it. The rest is details. Those details are now coming into view. The news on Wednesday that Johnson has requested, and received, permission from the queen to prorogue Parliament from Sept. 12 to Oct. 14—and thus prevent any parliamentary debate or action during that period on Brexit—has provoked outrage in the U.K. and consternation abroad. Johnson has been accused by his opponents, including members of parliament from his own party, of acting in a profoundly undemocratic and unconstitutional manner. The constitutional implications of prorogation aside, this step will probably be ineffective as far as Brexit is concerned. The prime minister may think that prorogation will help him to pressure both the remaining EU member states and the House of Commons into submission. In this, he is unlikely to succeed. The situation is complicated, because, technically, Johnson did not break any laws to bring it about. It is standard practice to prorogue Parliament before a Queen’s Speech, which signals the beginning of a new parliamentary session and provides an opportunity for the government of the day to lay out its policies. What are highly questionable in this context are the length of the prorogation period and the circumstances under which Parliament is being suspended. Johnson, an unelected prime minister heading a minority government, has significantly limited the number of days on which the House of Commons can debate, and possibly thwart, his Brexit policy. Since a no-deal Brexit remains the default of the Article 50 process under which the U.K. is leaving the EU, this move severely impairs, but does not fully eliminate, the ability of MPs to prevent such a drastic outcome. Meanwhile, there are press reports that that Downing Street is contemplating further procedural tricks to tie the hands of the opposition. The decision to prorogue Parliament demonstrates Johnson’s contempt for the principle of parliamentary sovereignty and shows the lengths to which he would go to free his hands from what he considers a meddling opposition, but it is no proof that he prefers a no-deal Brexit—only that he would countenance it.

The great university con: how the British degree lost its value  - this summer, a department at the University of Sheffield sent an email to students. A group of them had complained about their marks for an end-of-year essay. While a few had received Firsts, these students were given 2:2s and Thirds. “Thank you for raising the issue,” began the email, “and thank you also for your patience.” After reflection, the head of department and the director of “learning and teaching” had decided that, “our normal procedures… failed us. For this we apologise unreservedly”. The department had decided to “uplift all the marks… less at the top and more at the bottom”. The poorly performing students had their marks raised by nearly 40 per cent. The few who had done well saw their marks barely change. “Again, our apologies,” the message concluded, “but we hope that this is a satisfactory resolution.” What happened at Sheffield is one part of a national story: the great university con. Over the past 30 years, successive governments, from Thatcher to Blair, to Cameron and May, have imposed a set of perverse incentives on universities. Their effect has been to degrade and devalue the quality of British degrees. Academic standards have collapsed. In many institutions, it is the students who now educate the universities, in what grades they will tolerate and how much work they are willing to do. “We have got to protect ourselves from complaints,” says Natalie Fenton, professor of media and communications at Goldsmiths, University of London. “It’s an endless process of dealing with students who haven’t been able to buy the grade they wanted.”

It's A Scandal! - England's Homeless Children Problem - New estimates from the Children's Commissioner's Office for England have revealed that, in addition to the official figure for child homelessness of 124 thousand, there are thought to be around 92 thousand children 'sofa surfing' in the country.  Statista's Martin Armstrong notes that the report, 'Bleak Houses' also found that the temporary accommodation of families and children is often not fit for human habitation with shipping containers, office blocks and B&Bs being re-purposed to house them. Commenting on the findings, Children's Commissioner Anne Longfield said:  "It is a scandal that a country as prosperous as ours is leaving tens of thousands of families in temporary accommodation for long periods of time, or to sofa surf.”  On the reasons for the current situation, Polly Neate, chief executive of charity Shelter blamed “a cocktail of punitive welfare policies, a woeful lack of social homes and wildly expensive private rents mean this is frighteningly commonplace."

Prince Andrew On Epstein- 'I Saw No Sex Crimes' -- Britain's Prince Andrew - who was reportedly seen getting a foot massage from two young Russian girls at Jeffrey Epstein's New York townhouse - has denied seeing or suspecting any sex crimes while hanging with his pedophile friend, according to Reuters.   Prince Andrew with then 17-year-old accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre, who claims Epstein pimped her out to wealthy friends.  Andrew, the second son of Queen Elizabeth, issued a weekend statement saying he wanted to "clarify the facts" about his relationship with Epstein - who was found dead in a Manhattan jail cell earlier this month.  "At no stage during the limited time I spent with him did I see, witness or suspect any behavior of the sort that subsequently led to his arrest and conviction," said Andrew. We assume this includes the Lolita Express flight Andrew took with the former Miss Russia, Anna Malova (according to court records). We also assume he saw nothing in 2010, when he was pictured at the door of Epstein's Manhattan pedo palace.  The Mail said the picture had been taken in 2010 - two years after Epstein pleaded guilty to a Florida state felony prostitution charge and registered as a sex offender.U.S. court papers have previously shown that Epstein had socialized with Andrew and other high-profile figures including U.S. President Donald Trump and former president Bill Clinton.Andrew, 59, said it was a “mistake and error” to see Epstein in 2010 after he pleaded guilty to paying a teenage girl for sex.He said that he first met Epstein in 1999, saw him once or twice a year and stayed in a number of his properties.“His suicide has left many unanswered questions and I acknowledge and sympathize with everyone who has been affected and wants some form of closure,” said Andrew, whose title is the Duke of York.-Reuters