For The Second Straight Month, The Fed Bought Zero Bond ETFs - For much of the past seven months, the biggest story in capital markets was the Fed's Blackrock-mediated purchases of corporate bonds, either in the primary or secondary market or via ETFs. As a reminder, while the Fed pre-announced its intention to purchase up to $750BN in corporate bond (including certain fallen-angel junk bonds) in March, it started purchasing bonds in May, and bond ETFs in June (among which such mainstays as LQD and HYG). By directly entering the corporate bond market - something none of his predecessors dared to do even at the depths of the financial crisis - Powell created what many - us included - said the biggest corporate and junk bond bubble in history, because by backstopping prices the Fed terminally disconnected fundamentals from prices.And, as expected, bond prices, stocks, and ETFs all surged while yields plunged, even while the underlying cash flow fundamentals deteriorated as everyone was trying to front-run the Fed’s pending or concurrent massive purchases. In other words, by jawboning alone, the Fed accomplished its handiwork. Yet something odd happened last month: in all of August, when during the peak summer doldrums it was SoftBank's turn to steal the spotlight with its now infamous gamma meltup, the Fed did not buy a single ETF, and barely bought any corporate bonds, which prompted us to ask: is Powell sending markets a message?In retrospect it appears he was, because after an early swoon in the first days of September, stocks suffered their first major bout of turbulence since June last month when they closed in the red for the first time since the covid pandemic broke out.So fast forward to today when the Fed released the latest monthly activity details under its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility when we find that for the second month in a row, the Fed bought zero corporate ETFs... Looking at the bond level data showed a similar picture: here the Fed or rather Blackrock was just a bit busier, and bought just $420 million par value of bonds between Aug 31 and Sept 29, after purchasing just $421 million the month prior. Why the Fed continues to buy Apple bonds - which are arguably the most liquid corporate bonds in the world - remains a mystery. In any case, the modest September purchases, the Fed's total corporate bond holdings rose by $394 million from $3.988 billion to 4.382 billion, an amount which also included the redemptions of several issues. And when combined with its $8.618 billion in ETF holdings, this means that as of August 31, the Fed owned just over $13 billion in bonds and ETFs.
Fed’s Bullard: Likely Robust Recovery Won’t Call For Change in Fed Policy - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the economy to snap back briskly from the coronavirus pandemic, but added that doesn’t mean he sees reason for the central bank to back away from its accommodative policy stance.
FOMC Minutes: "most forecasters were assuming that an additional pandemic-related fiscal package would be approved this year" --From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2020. A few excerpts: While the economic outlook had brightened, most forecasters were assuming that an additional pandemic-related fiscal package would be approved this year, and noted that, absent a new package, growth could decelerate at a faster-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter. In light of these and other risks, as well as the ongoing pandemic, market participants continued to suggest that the supportive policy environment and the backstops to market functioning remained important stabilizers....Participants continued to see the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook as very elevated, with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus; on how individuals, businesses, and public officials responded to it; and on the effectiveness of public health measures to address it. Participants cited several downside risks that could threaten the recovery. While the risk of another broad economic shutdown was seen as having receded, participants remained concerned about the possibility of additional virus outbreaks that could undermine the recovery. Such scenarios could result in increases in bankruptcies and defaults, put stress on the financial system, and lead to disruptions in the flow of credit to households and businesses. Most participants raised the concern that fiscal support so far for households, businesses, and state and local governments might not provide sufficient relief to these sectors. A couple of participants saw an upside risk that further fiscal stimulus could be larger than anticipated, though it might come later than had been expected. Several participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including how it could lead to a restructuring in some sectors of the economy that could slow employment growth or could accelerate technological disruption that was likely limiting the pricing power of firms.
Fed officials vow to alter long-held practices to beat inequity - Federal Reserve officials were challenged Wednesday to make big policy changes to combat economic and racial inequality. In response, the presidents of the Atlanta, Boston and Minneapolis reserve banks pledged to shake up some long-held practices — including adding more minority and labor voices to its Beige Book, which has long been dominated by business input. Ursula Burns, the former CEO of Xerox, said the U.S. central bank, the largest and arguably most influential in the world, isn't serving all Americans. "The Federal Reserve as the economic policy instrument in this country absolutely has to know, be passionate about, be interested in not just the wealthiest or the median, but all the people," Burns said in a virtual conference hosted by the Minneapolis, Atlanta and Boston reserve banks. Believing it's not the Fed's job to help solve economic problems along racial lines is "ducking" the issue, she said at the conference, called Racism and the Economy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, the first Black Fed president, said the three banks were inspired to hold the conference following racist events in each of their districts. George Floyd whose death in Minneapolis sparked a global reckoning over police brutality. Ahmaud Arbery was shot and killed while jogging in Georgia. And in Boston, former Major League Baseball player Torii Hunter said he had a clause in his contracts barring a trade to the Boston Red Sox after he had racial slurs directed at him while playing games at the city's Fenway Park. Burns emphasized that every branch of government should be doing what it can to create a more inclusive economy and to decrease the race- and gender-based disparities that still plague the country. Wages and wealth vary significantly along racial lines, and the coronavirus pandemic has further widened some of these as Black and Latino Americans, as well as women, lost jobs at a faster clip than others. In response to Burns's comments, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that some people would argue that the central bank doesn't have the right tools to adequately combat some of these issues and would say that Congress, with its lawmaking authority, is better equipped to rectify these problems. "I'm sure that you can live a life this way," Burns responded. "You've been doing it for 107 years. I just think it is not appropriate at all. It's not serving the people of this country."
Fed Chair Powell: Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead - The speech is available on youtube. From Fed Chair Powell: Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead We should continue do what we can to manage downside risks to the outlook. One such risk is that COVID-19 cases might again rise to levels that more significantly limit economic activity, not to mention the tragic effects on lives and well-being. Managing this risk as the expansion continues will require following medical experts' guidance, including using masks and social-distancing measures.A second risk is that a prolonged slowing in the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on weakness. A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy. That would be tragic, especially in light of our country's progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic. The expansion is still far from complete. At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth. By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller. Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste. The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.
Fed's Rosengren- Pre-pandemic low rates worsened current downturn - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the long period of low interest rates before the coronavirus pandemic is contributing to the depth of the current recession. “The slow buildup of risk in the low-interest-rate environment that preceded the current recession likely will make the economic recovery from the pandemic more difficult,” Rosengren said in the text of a speech he’ll deliver Thursday at an online event hosted by Marquette University. “The increased risk buildup, such as the reaching-for-yield behavior in commercial real estate or increased corporate leverage, make economic downturns including this one more severe,” he said. Rosengren, who previously supported interest rate increases after the jobless rate fell below his estimate of full employment, has long warned of the danger of corporate risk-taking. He said the U.S. will have to improve its regulatory framework as interest rates are likely to stay low again for a number of years. “In the United States, we do not have a cohesive set of regulatory and supervisory tools to moderate risk buildups,” he said. “If we expect to remain in a low-interest-rate environment for a protracted period of time, we need to take more precautions against financial stability risks for when the next economic shock hits.” Rosengren, who doesn’t vote this year on the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, didn’t provide a detailed outlook for the U.S. economy or discuss current monetary policy in his prepared remarks.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of Oct 4th. The seven day average is down 67% from last year (33% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 3, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." The 7 day average for New York is still off 61% YoY, and down 28% in Texas. There was a surge in restaurant dining around Labor Day - hopefully mostly outdoor dining. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 1st. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were at $11 million last week (compared to usually under $200 million per week in the late Summer / early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020). This data is through September 26th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.5% year-over-year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of September 25th, gasoline supplied was only off about 6.7% YoY (about 93.3% of normal). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through October 2nd for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This data is through Friday, October 2nd.
WSJ October Survey: Q3 Growth Revised Up, Q4 Down - Menzie Chinn - In levels (incorporating revisions to actual GDP): Figure 1: GDP as reported in 2020Q2 3rd release (black), WSJ April survey (tan), May survey (green), June survey (red), July survey (pink), August survey (blue), September (brown), and October (chartreuse), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA, various vintages, WSJ survey, various vintages, author’s calculations.The three most recent forecasts are for rising levels of Q4 GDP — arising partly from higher reported Q2 GDP at each revision, and mostly from upwardly revised estimates of Q3 growth (even as Q4 is revised downward).The most optimistic forecaster (for the remainder of 2020) remains the ever consistently optimistic James Smith of EconForecaster. The most pessimistic is A.C. Cutts. Figure 2: GDP as reported in 2020Q2 3rd release (black), James Smith/Economic Forecaster LLC (red), Amy Crew Cutts/A.C. Cutts & assoc. (green), Daniel Bachman/Deloitte (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q2 3rd release, October WSJ survey, and author’s calculations. Daniel Bachman of Deloitte had the most “W”-ish recovery forecast — although the last stroke of the W is a bit limp. The survey was taken between October 2-6. This period largely predates Mr. Trump’s announcement of the end of negotiations on the Phase 4 recovery package. It’s hard to know how to incorporate this announcement, given the lack of credibility on the part of the administration. I compare the forecasts from Goldman Sachs research from early September and late “no deal” in this post.
Q3 GDP Forecasts -- From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 33% qoq saar for 3Q GDP growth. [Oct 9 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +35% (qoq ar).. [Oct 9 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 14.1% for 2020:Q3 and 4.8% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 9 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.2 percent on October 9, slightly down from 35.3 percent on October 6. [Oct 9 estimate] It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 30% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 6.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 4.2% from Q4 2019. The following graph illustrates this decline. This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.2% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak. The black arrow shows what a 30% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3.Even with a 30% annualized increase (about 6.8% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 4.2% from Q4 2019; a larger decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.
Rana Foroohar and Mark Blyth: How Deep Will the Depression Get? (video and transcript) Yves here. There’s a lot to like about this interview with Rana Foroohar and Mark Blyth, yet there are some odd sour notes. For instance, Blyth repeats what is essentially a Democratic party stereotype about Trump voters, that they are Rust Belt victims of manufacturing loss. As we have repeatedly stressed, the average household income of Trump voters was substantially higher than that of Clinton voters: $72,000 versus $61,000. We’ve linked repeatedly to the Washington Post article, It’s time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not working class.
Powell warns of weak recovery without more government aid -In one of his strongest appeals to date, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of a weak U.S. recovery without sufficient government aid and said providing too much stimulus wouldn’t be a problem. Powell’s remarks Tuesday came amid Republicans’ opposition to a larger relief package that has kept talks with Democrats at a stalemate in Congress since aid to jobless Americans and small businesses expired in July and August. "Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday. “Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Powell told a virtual conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. “By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller. Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste.”Powell and his colleagues at the U.S. central bank cut their benchmark interest rate to near zero in March at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. They’ve pledged to keep rates low until the economy returns to maximum employment and have been urging Congress to pass additional fiscal stimulus on top of the roughly $3 trillion already authorized to keep the outlook for continued economic recovery intact.Lawmakers have been debating additional aid since the end of July, when the enhanced unemployment benefits that were authorized in March expired, but have so far failed to come to an agreement. Democrats have been pushing for a bigger spending package while Republicans want a smaller one; Powell didn’t explicitly reference either party’s position in his prepared remarks.“The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods,” Powell said.Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise across the country again, posing a renewed threat to the economy — a risk Powell alluded to in his remarks. His comments echoed those of his European Central Bank counterpart, Christine Lagarde, who warned in an interview published Tuesday against governments' winding down aid amid ongoing outbreaks.“Consumption held up well through August after the expiration of expanded unemployment insurance benefits, indicating that savings from transfer payments continue to support economic activity,” Powell said. “Still, since it appears that many will undergo extended periods of unemployment, there is likely to be a need for further support.” “Declining inflation has been a persistent factor for some time,” Powell said while answering questions after the speech. “We are still seeing downward pressure on inflation, and I think it’s appropriate for central banks, and certainly the Fed, to take that into account and move to a framework that is robust to that.”
Fed’s Powell Says U.S. Faces ‘Tragic’ Risks From Doing Too Little to Support Economy – WSJ - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of potentially tragic economic consequences that could result if Congress and the White House don’t provide additional support to households and businesses disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. “The expansion is still far from complete,” Mr. Powell said in remarks to be delivered at a virtual economics conference Tuesday. “At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship.” By contrast, the risks of providing too generous relief are smaller, he said. “Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste,” he said. The Fed cut its benchmark rate to near zero in March, purchased unprecedented sums of government securities and offered to lend directly to businesses, cities and states to keep markets functioning. Republicans and Democrats have been at an impasse for months over steps to extend unemployment benefits that lapsed in July and to provide additional aid to hard-hit businesses, cities and states. Negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have picked up in recent days as congressional Democrats and the White House scope out one final chance at a breakthrough before the Nov. 3 election. Mr. Powell, who is generally well regarded by lawmakers in both parties, has repeatedly urged Congress to approve additional spending measures. He renewed that call on Tuesday by applauding the $3 trillion in spending and other measures that Congress had approved this past spring. The early fiscal response was “truly extraordinary” and the “most innovative” since the Great Depression, Mr. Powell said on Tuesday. “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.” Mr. Powell said actions by the Fed and fiscal policy makers had muted the normal recessionary dynamics that occur in a downturn, where households and businesses cut back on spending, leading to further pullbacks in hiring and output and a tightening in credit standards from banks and other lenders.
Trump and Biden's plans would both add to the debt, analysis finds - Campaign plans from President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden would each add about $5 trillion to the debt over a decade, according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) released Wednesday. Under the budget watchdog’s central estimates, Trump’s plan would add $4.95 trillion to the debt while Biden’s would increase the debt by $5.6 trillion. The estimates exclude spending proposals aimed at addressing the coronavirus pandemic and related economic downturn. “The country’s large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, constrain the choices available to future policymakers, and is ultimately unsustainable,” CRFB said. “Yet neither presidential candidate has a plan to address the growth in debt. In fact, we find both candidates’ plans are likely to increase the debt.” Biden has released detailed proposals in areas including education, health care, infrastructure and taxes, while Trump has released general bullet points about his second-term agenda. CRFB interpreted Trump’s bullet points based by looking at budget proposals, previous statements and more detailed proposals from others. Because the candidates’ proposals were often unclear, CRFB released low-cost, central and high-cost estimates of Trump’s and Biden’s plans. The group found that Trump’s plans could increase the debt by $700 billion to $6.85 trillion over 10 years, while Biden’s plans could have an impact on the debt that ranges from a $150 billion reduction to an $8.3 trillion increase. CRFB’s central estimate of Trump’s agenda found that the president’s call for cutting prescription drug prices and ending surprise billing would produce savings of $150 billion over 10 years, but those savings would be dwarfed by his plans to increase spending in other areas. The watchdog group estimated that Trump’s education and child care agenda would cost $150 billion, and that his plans for spending on infrastructure, space and supporting Black-owned businesses would cost $2.7 trillion. Trump’s tax plans, which include making the individual provisions in his 2017 law permanent, would cost a total of $1.7 trillion, CRFB said. Trump’s national security and immigration plans would on net cost $300 billion, with his plans on immigration and ending wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East producing savings that are less than the total costs of his plans to increase the defense budget and spending on veterans. CRFB found in its central estimate that Biden would increase spending by about $2.7 trillion on child care and education, and most of this increase would come from his higher education plans. The former vice president would spend $2.05 trillion on health care and long-term care, with much of this cost coming from his plans to expand health-insurance coverage. Biden’s plans to expand Social Security, Supplemental Security Income and tax breaks for older Americans would cost $1.15 trillion. His plans in other domestic spending areas, including infrastructure and housing, would cost $4.45 trillion, according to CRFB’s central estimates. Biden’s spending plans would be partially offset by $750 billion in savings from his plans to end wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East and to reform the immigration system, and by $4.3 trillion in revenue generated by his plans to raise taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, CRFB said.
On Capitol Hill, the prospects for a stimulus deal before the election remain murky. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday that President Trump’s positive test for coronavirus “changes the dynamic of stimulus talks.” But developments since suggest that the sides are still far apart on negotiating a new pandemic aid package, according to today’s DealBook newsletter. Those pushing hard for a bill include the White House. Mr. Trump tweeted from the hospital on Saturday that the country “wants and needs” more stimulus. For Mr. Trump, a deal would serve as a sign of his authority, taking attention away from his health and unfavorable polls. Congressional leaders, though, are still haggling. When asked Sunday whether Mr. Trump’s comments meant the two parties were closer to a deal, Ms. Pelosi demurred: “No, it means that we want to see that they will agree on what we need to do to crush the virus so that we can open the economy and open our schools safely.” She said that the parties were “making progress” toward a deal, but with Mr. Biden ahead in the polls, Democrats may feel they have the upper hand in negotiations. On the Senate side, the majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is balancing competing interests among his Republican colleagues — some want a deal to bring home to constituents and others are worried about approving another large spending deal. Adding to the difficulties, the Senate has delayed its next sitting until Oct. 19, to account for positive coronavirus tests among Republican members. Hanging in the balance are jobs and the economy. The longer people are out of the work, the harder it is for them to come back, suggesting that we may be entering the slow, grinding phase of a recovery that could tip into recession. There are still about twice as many people out of work now than before the pandemic, and without aid akin to what was in the first stimulus bill, weaker consumer spending, missed rent payments and other factors could ripple through the economy and the financial system.
The Chamber Of Commerce Dems From The Republican Wing Of The Democratic Party Just Undercut Pelosi’s Pandemic Negotiations With Mnuchin - Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that Pelosi anticipates striking a pandemic relief deal with Mnuchin, who the Republicans have tasked with keeping the package as small and mean as possible. Erica Werner and Jeff Stein asserted that Pelosi thinks that now that Trump is dying sick, it will be easier to get a bipartisan deal. The vote in the House on Thursday for the $2.2 trillion package was supposed to strengthen her hand in the negotiations. Instead, as we explained earlier a pack of mangy Blue Dogs and New Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, screwed it up by voting with the Republicans against the package, giving Mnuchin a bit of an edge in cutting down the amount of money that goes to state and local governments and to working families directly. Democrats had sought a $2.2 trillion package, while the White House’s most recent offer was closer to $1.6 trillion. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke Friday afternoon for 65 minutes and plan to continue their discussions, according to Drew Hammill, a spokesman for the House speaker. The pace of talks– and the possibility of a deal– have picked up markedly in recent days. White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told reporters Friday that Trump had inquired about the status of negotiations Friday morning, shortly after the president announced his positive coronavirus test. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) sounded a positive note at a news conference in Kentucky.” I’m trying to figure out here whether I should predict another bill quickly or not, but the talks have speeded up in the last couple days,” said McConnell, who is not directly involved in the negotiations but is regularly briefed by Mnuchin. “I think we’re closer to getting an outcome.” With the talks picking up steam, Pelosi released a statement Friday calling on airlines to delay imminent furloughs of workers whose jobs are at risk after payroll support included in the Cares Act expired Wednesday. Pelosi said a six-month extension of the Payroll Support Program would be included in any deal or passed as a stand-alone bill. The economy recovered a bit during the summer, but it has shown signs of lagging in recent weeks, particularly as several large companies have announced new plans for layoffs. Although Pelosi was cross as the garbage Democraps, her own House Majority PAC and the DCCC have already started spending immense amounts of money to save their worthless hides. Neither the DCCC or Pelosi’s PAC spends much on progressives, making sure to keep the number of progressives down to a bare minimum, but they spend millions and millions of dollars protecting weak Blue Dogs and New Dems who don’t generate much enthusiasm from woke Democrats. Most of them will win in the November anti-Trump tsunami and will go on to be defeated in 2022 after two years of nothing consequential coming out of the Biden White House or the Schumer Senate. These garbagecrats all voted against the pandemic bailout package. The number next to their names is how much the DCCC and the House majority PAC have already spent independently on behalf of their campaigns– and they’re just getting started.
• Cindy Axne (New Dem-IA)- $1,159,950
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)- $2,252,284
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)- $1,600,047
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)- $1,601,567
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)- $1,171,949
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)- $1,509,849
• Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA)- $1,154,442
• Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)- $1,514,655
• Jared Golden (Blue Dog-ME)- $420,500
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)- $1,656,318
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)- $1,336,672
White House COVID Outbreak Will Make or Break Stimulus Deal - Those of us who were closely watching the endless, slow-motion saga of negotiations over a major coronavirus-relief and stimulus package were, like everyone else, thrown for a loop by the news bomb of the president’s own COVID-19 diagnosis, which happened to break just as Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin had reportedly reached the endgame of their on-again, off-again talks. But the public figure who seemed most determined to keep the stimulus story in the news was President Trump himself, who tweeted this from the Walter Reed medical center:If nothing else, this appeared to represent a very public set of instructions to Mnuchin to keep on talking. And although the House passed a Democratic stimulus bill last week and members went home to campaign for reelection, Pelosi has kept talking to the Treasury secretary, while making it clear that House members could be recalled on a day’s notice for a stimulus vote. So the supposedly hard deadlines everyone was talking about last week are proving to be quite flexible. Today, there are signs of further communications, per Pelosi’s staff:An hour is pretty long for a symbolic gesture, and exchanging “paper” suggests we are at the point of draft final agreements or even legislative language. There is no particular intel on where they are on prior sticking points (particularly state and local assistance), but the numbers from both sides on that item were already slowly converging last week.But while Pelosi has her troops prepared to return to Washington on short notice to pass a stimulus bill, the COVID-stricken Republican-controlled Senate may be a different matter. Mitch McConnell has called off Senate business until October 19, presumably to avoid additional infections (at least three Republican senators have tested positive so far with two more in quarantine). And unlike the House, the Senate has not instituted any system of large-scale proxies or remote voting to accommodate a pandemic.One pressure point for a d eal is the plight of the airline industry, which announced massive layoffs last week when the federal payroll support provided in the CARES Act ran out. Pelosi even said she would consider a stand-alone bill to deal with just that crisis. But if there’s no Senate around, that’s problematic as well.
Democrats sense momentum for expanding child tax credit - Democrats are rallying behind a child tax credit expansion, sensing momentum around one of the few tax issues that could garner bipartisan support in the coming months. The proposal was included in the House-passed HEROES Act in May and later highlighted by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in September. More recently, a slimmed-down version of the proposal was part of the revised HEROES Act that House Democrats passed last week. While Republicans have not been supportive of those larger bills, they have expanded the child tax credit in the past, making Democrats hopeful that there could be congressional action either later this year or in early 2021. “Not only does it help families now, I think it’s good long-term policy,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, told The Hill. Democrats have long been interested in expanding the child tax credit in an effort to provide more assistance to low- and middle-income families and have renewed these efforts as part of their push for another coronavirus relief package. The initial $3.4 trillion HEROES Act would expand the credit in several ways for 2020. It would make the credit fully refundable so that the lowest-income households and households that lost jobs could receive the full amount of the credit, and it would increase the credit amount from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child, or $3,600 for children under the age of 6. Seventeen-year-olds, who currently don’t qualify for the credit, would be eligible. The initial proposal also would direct the Treasury Department to endeavor to provide the expanded credit as advance payments on a monthly basis, so that people would not have to wait until they file their 2020 tax returns next year to get relief. The updated version of the HEROES Act, which was scaled back to have a smaller overall price tag of about $2.2 trillion, includes provisions on full refundability and advanced payments but does not increase the credit amount. The prospects for a deal on a COVID-19 relief package between Democrats and the Trump administration are shaky and looking less likely after President Trump on Tuesday tweeted that he’s directed his representatives to stop negotiating until after the elections. After Trump’s tweet, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wrote in a letter to colleagues that the president “has prioritized protecting the tax cut for the wealthiest from the CARES Act instead of meeting the needs of the poorest children in America — rejecting the Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and the needs of school children learning safely in-person, hybrid, or virtual.” The White House presented a proposal to Pelosi last week with a cost of about $1.6 trillion that did not include an expansion of the child tax credit. Pelosi highlighted this difference in a letter to House Democrats on Friday. She also noted that the administration has not joined Democrats in proposing an expansion of the earned income tax credit, which benefits low- and middle-income workers.
Donald Trump ends stimulus relief negotiations until after election - President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he was withdrawing from economic relief talks until after the election, abruptly ordering Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to stop negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.In a series of tweets posted less than 24 hours after he was released from the hospital, Trump accused Pelosi of failing to negotiate in good faith, after she rejected an opening bid from Mnuchin in their latest round of talks. Trump is still dealing with his recent coronavirus diagnosis, but he has tried to dismiss the illness’s impact on him in the past two days. “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hard-working Americans and Small Business,” Trump wrote.The pronouncement was so stunning that Pelosi told Democratic colleagues on a conference call that the president’s sudden change in position might be connected to the steroids he’s taking as he battles the coronavirus.His tweets sent the stock market suddenly lower, as many businesses, households and investors had been hoping for a sudden jolt of fiscal stimulus amid signs the economy had lost momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 330 points, or by 1.2%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also fell. The pronouncement came just hours after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said in a speech that more economic stimulus was needed.
Trump says he will back specific relief measures hours after halting talks - President Trump late Tuesday signaled he would support specific measures on stimulus checks, help for the airline industry and small business loans, hours after cutting off bipartisan talks for more coronavirus relief. “The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business. Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!” Trump tweeted Tuesday, referring to the coronavirus stimulus package passed in March. Both provisions were included in stimulus negotiations that were being held between the administration and congressional Democrats that Trump scrapped Tuesday. Later, Trump tweeted that he would also sign a bill that would give some Americans $1,200 stimulus checks, tagging top negotiators in the post. The messages come after stocks nosedived after Trump pulled the plug on talks for a broader stimulus agreement. All three major stock indexes lost solid gains from earlier in the day and fell into negative territory after the announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a loss of 375 points, roughly 1.3 percent, the S&P 500 closed with a loss of 1.4 percent, and the Nasdaq composite closed down roughly 1.6 percent. The airline industry also grumbled over the announcement as their stocks sharply dropped. “We have to hold out that hope,” Industry group Airlines for America (A4A) CEO Nicholas Calio said in a statement on Tuesday. “Time already ran out for U.S. airlines and many of our employees, yet there is a glimmer of hope that our leaders in Washington will act and save these jobs before it’s too late to turn back the clock.” “The past week has dealt a crushing blow to the American Airlines team and the aviation industry, and we were hopeful that overwhelming bipartisan support for the Payroll Support Program would result in immediate action to protect jobs and service to communities across the country. We will continue to make the case in Washington that action is needed to help workers across the country and lead America to the other side of this pandemic,” added a spokesperson for American Airlines. The airline industry had pressed Congress and the White House to extend the airline Payroll Support Program (PSP), which allocated $25 billion in aid as part of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act passed in March. "There is wide, bipartisan support in providing assistance to our industry and we will continue to do everything we can to urge leaders in Washington to pass legislation that will save airline jobs," a United Airlines spokesperson said in a statement. "As we have made clear, we are eager to reverse the furlough process should Congress pass legislation to extend the CARES Act Payroll Support Program, and we will continue to update our employees on the latest as this unfolds."’
Coronavirus live updates: Trump abruptly cuts off coronavirus aid talks, but tweets send mixed messages - The Washington Post - Coronavirus relief talks came to an abrupt halt Tuesday as President Trump ordered Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to stop negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) until after the November election. Hours later, however, Trump appeared to contradict himself in a series of tweets that called for Congress to “IMMEDIATELY” approve additional aid for small businesses and airlines. Here are some significant developments:
- At least 7,463,000 coronavirus cases and 210,000 fatalities have been reported in the United States since February, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. Seven states — Arkansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming — set new highs for covid-19 hospitalizations on Tuesday.
- Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said that the White House coronavirus outbreak could have been prevented.
- Rick Bright, a former top government vaccine official, resigned from NIH on Tuesday, several months after lodging a whistleblower complaint.
- Britain’s health secretary warned of a “very serious problem” as the numbers of new infections and hospitalizations soar in the country.
- Stephen Miller, a senior policy adviser to Trump, is the latest administration official to test positive for the novel coronavirus. The White House gestured toward enhancing public health protocols on Tuesday, but the main source of resistance continues to be Trump.
- The White House approved tough new standards for coronavirus vaccines on Tuesday after weeks of delay — but only after the Food and Drug Administration unilaterally published the guidelines on its website as part of briefing materials for outside vaccine advisers.
- Members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff are in quarantine after a top Coast Guard admiral tested positive for the coronavirus, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
Global markets struggle to make sense of Trump's stimulus tweet storm – CNN -Global stock markets were struggling Wednesday to digest a tweet storm from President Donald Trump over what the US government should do next to prop up ailing businesses and the economy.Just hours after Trump's decision to halt negotiations on a major economic stimulus package caused US stocks to plummet, he called on US lawmakers to approve smaller measures that would provide relief to airlines and small businesses."The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support, & 135 Billion Dollars for Paycheck Protection Program for Small Business," Trump tweeted late on Tuesday. "Both of these will be fully paid for with unused funds from the Cares Act. Have this money. I will sign now!"He later added that he was "ready to sign" a "Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200)." The head-snapping social media proclamations added to confusion about the prospect of further stimulus this year. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called for more relief to help sustain the fragile recovery before Trump put stimulus negotiations on hold. "This appears to be a none too subtle effort to cherry-pick the bits of a fiscal stimulus plan that are directly vote-winning potentially," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at Oanda. "Whether the American public buys it or not is another thing altogether."Investors had been hoping that Washington would approve a financial plan to help the country through its worst economic crisis in generations. A Trump tweet dashed those hopes."I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business," he tweeted just before 3 p.m. ET.
1.3 million people filed initial unemployment insurance claims last week: It is terrible economics to pause stimulus talks -Another 1.3 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits last week. That includes 840,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 464,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). PUA is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits, but it is set to expire at the end of this year. The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was a decline from 53,000 from the prior week’s revised figures, though trends over time should be interpreted with caution right now because California data are being imputed because they have temporarily paused its processing of initial claims. It is worth noting that today’s data on initial claims do not include any workers who may have been laid off or furloughed in the wake of President Trump tweeting earlier this week that he was halting stimulus talks (more on that below).Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire at the end of July, so last week was the tenth week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not get the extra $600. On Tuesday, President Trump announced he had ordered his negotiators to stop top talks with Democratic leaders on another stimulus package. If that abrupt move holds, it means the extra $600 is not coming back anytime soon, and the economy will also not be getting other crucial stimulus measures it needs, including aid to state and local governments.This is terrible economics. For example, the extra $600 in weekly UI benefits was supporting a huge amount of spending by people who, without it, have to make drastic cuts. The spending made possible by the $600 was supporting millions of jobs. Cutting that $600 means cutting those jobs—it means the workers who were providing the goods and services that UI recipients were spending that $600 on lose their jobs. The map inFigure B of this blog post shows many jobs will be lost by state because of the expiration of the $600.Not providing aid to state and local governments will also cost millions of jobs. The labor market is still more than 12 million jobs below where we would be if the recession hadn’t happened, and job growth is slowing. Now is not the time to cut off stimulus talks. Cutting off talks also means no additional housing and nutrition assistance, no COVID-related health and safety measures for workers, no aid to the Postal Service during this critical time, and no additional support for virus testing, tracing, and isolation measures, or virus treatment and support for hospitals and other health providers. All of these things would have helped our economy and the people in it recover from the COVID crisis. Cutting it off is unthinkable at a time like this, yet that is what the president seems to have done.
Speaker Pelosi, House Democrats leave town, fail the American people | TheHill -- Wheels up, off to California after adjourning the House until after Election Day. It’s a shameful display of partisanship in the wake of our recovery from the coronavirus. Rather than help small businesses continue to access unused funds from the Paycheck Protection Program, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is willing to block reasonable relief efforts, all in the name of politics. She doesn’t want to risk President Trump and congressional Republicans getting an ounce of credit in the final weeks of this election.Some things are simply more important than political posturing, like ensuring American small businesses can weather the storm of the coronavirus pandemic. We have unspent funds from the Paycheck Protection Program, a COVID relief program that saved 51 million jobs in the United States, 2 million in Ohio alone. Its authorization is expiring, meaning the program is closing up shop, despite $138 billion left in the coffers. My Ohio colleague, Rep. Steve Chabot, has a simple, straightforward bill that reauthorizes the unspent funds through the end of the year, expands the eligible entities and expenses, and further protects the program so that businesses with fewer than 300 employees can get to the front of the line.We are on the right path toward economic recovery, with more than 10 million jobs created or brought back after the worst of the pandemic. But as states reopen at different paces, we still have businesses struggling to adjust and keep their doors open. Mom and pop stores, those with just a handful of employees are bearing the brunt of the economic damage. That’s why this PPP extension bill earmarks $25 billion for businesses with 10 or fewer employees and, if a business receives a second PPP loan, this bill ensures the total of those two loans cannot exceed $10 million. Those businesses with just a few employees can make up a large number of loans in the program, but those loans will often be some of the smallest approved by the Small Business Administration. They are businesses that would struggle with the compliance and paperwork costs associated with byzantine processes mandated by federal regulators. This bill eliminates this problem: a simple form attesting that the business complied with the loan requirements is all that will be needed. It also requires them to keep records related to the loan on hand for three years in the case of an audit by the Small Business Administration.
Back to the Table: Stimulus talks on again after being shut down - Just a couple of days ago, President Donald Trump said talks over a new economic stimulus package were off between Republicans and Democrats until after the November election.That was bad news for the many Americans and businesses still struggling with uncertainty because of the COVID-19 pandemic.Now it looks like the president has reversed course.On Thursday, the White House and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said they are still negotiating."Well I shut down talks two days ago because they weren't working out. Now they are starting to work out, we're starting to have some very productive talks," President Trump told FOX Business. He even added a rare positive comment about the speaker, saying Pelosi wants the stimulus to happen "because it's so good for our country, we really need it."The president graciously — and realistically — refused to blame one side for Congress' inability to reach a compromise."But it's not anybody's fault, they were trying to get things, and we were trying to get things and it wasn't going anywhere, I shut it down. I don't want to play games. And then we reopened, and I see the markets are doing well but I think we have a really good chance of doing something," the president said.Oh, and the big question for most of us? Both sides said any new deal would likely include another round of $1,200 stimulus checks. So was the president's shutdown just a power play, a negotiating tool? Maybe so. In any case we hope this will speed talks and a new bill will be passed and signed soon. There are plenty of folks still hurting out here.
Trump's stimulus proposal draws opposition from congressional Democrats and Republicans (Reuters) - A new $1.8 trillion economic stimulus proposal from the Trump administration drew criticism from congressional Democrats and Republicans on Saturday, diminishing hopes for a coronavirus relief deal before the Nov. 3 election. In a weekly letter to Democratic colleagues, Pelosi said the Trump administration’s proposal lacked a “strategic plan to crush the virus” and gave President Donald Trump too much discretion to decide how funds were allocated. “At this point, we still have disagreement on many priorities, and Democrats are awaiting language from the Administration on several provisions as the negotiations on the overall funding amount continue,” Pelosi’s letter said. On a conference call on Saturday morning with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, multiple Republican senators criticized the price tag of the Trump administration’s proposal, a source familiar with the matter said. Mnuchin floated the $1.8 trillion proposal in a 30-minute Friday afternoon phone conversation with Pelosi, according to the White House. The new White House package was higher than an earlier $1.6 trillion Mnuchin offer and closer to the $2.2 trillion the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives passed last week. White House spokeswoman Alyssa Farah said the administration wanted to keep spending below $2 trillion but was eager to enact a fresh round of direct payments to individuals as well as aid for small businesses and airlines. Friday marked the third straight day of talks between Pelosi and Mnuchin. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in Congress, said on Friday he doubted lawmakers would pass a package before Nov. 3, although he has not directly participated in the talks. “The proximity to the election and the differences of opinion over what is needed at this particular juncture are pretty vast,” McConnell told a news conference.
Pelosi, Mnuchin fail to reach COVID-19 stimulus deal, but talks go on amid Republican doubts (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed on Friday to reach agreement on a COVID-19 stimulus package, while the top Senate Republican voiced doubt that Congress would act before the Nov. 3 election. Mnuchin floated a new $1.8 trillion proposal in a 30-minute Friday afternoon phone conversation, according to the White House. But Pelosi aide Drew Hamill said the offer lacked a broad plan to contain the pandemic. Talks will continue, he said. “We are still awaiting language from the administration as negotiations on the overall funding amount continue,” Hamill said on Twitter. The new White House package was higher than an earlier $1.6 trillion Mnuchin offer and closer to the $2.2 trillion that the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives passed last week. White House spokeswoman Alyssa Farah said the administration wanted to keep spending below $2 trillion but was eager to enact a fresh round of direct payments to American individuals as well as aid to small businesses and airlines. “We want to think that the Speaker is operating in good faith and we can have some progress in the near future,” Farah said. It was the third straight day of talks between Pelosi and Mnuchin this week.
PPP Money Abounded—but Some Got It Faster Than Others – WSJ - Six months after launching the biggest small business aid initiative in history, Congress is working to extend the Paycheck Protection Program—but with new measures to ensure the most vulnerable of businesses have a better shot at funding. The PPP initiative delivered more than 5 million loans totaling $525 billion, but was dogged by complaints from many borrowers and small-business groups that it favored sophisticated companies with strong ties to lenders, which issued the loans, over those with weaker financial roots, including many in minority neighborhoods. That disparity played out in how fast companies were able to get loans in the first critical weeks following the program’s April 3 launch, according to a Wall Street Journal review of lending data in the nation’s capital. The Journal compared PPP borrower data for zip codes in Washington’s central business district—which includes K Street law firms and lobbying shops—against those for low-income neighborhoods east of the Anacostia River, where commercial areas are dotted with small Black-owned firms, non-profit organizations and churches. There was a wide gap between the two areas in terms of when borrowers got their money, according to a review of lending data released by the Small Business Administration, which oversaw the program with the Treasury Department. In the central business district, about 80% of companies that received loans before the program ended Aug. 8 had gotten loan approval within the first month of its April 3 launch, the data shows. By comparison, just 38% of borrowers in the areas east of the Anacostia River that ultimately received loans had been approved in that first month. A similar pattern played out across the country. Nationwide, 92% of PPP loans of $2 million and more received approval by the end of April, whereas just 54% of loans $350,000 or less received approval by then. Trump administration officials have defended the PPP initiative, saying it was aimed at getting money out to companies quickly so they could keep employees on the payroll. While most of the loans were made by conventional lenders such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. , the SBA said it encouraged lending through Community Development Financial Institutions and Minority Depository Institutions—which issued more than 221,000 PPP loans exceeding $16 billion by the time the program ended Aug. 8. But as Congress looks to extend the program, both Republicans and Democrats say the new round of PPP should include funds set aside for businesses with 10 or fewer employees, as well as continued support for community lenders that cater to underserved borrowers, including companies owned by women, minorities and veterans.
Corporate Polluters Have Received Tens of Millions in PPP Loans -As the American public awaits a new coronavirus aid package and at least one in five small businesses expect to close by the end of 2020 due to economic hardship, government watchdog Accountable.US and the HuffPost revealed Sunday that at least five companies which were previously fined for pollution violations received millions of dollars in loans via the Paycheck Protection Program which was introduced in March. Fossil fuel companies, a diesel engine parts manufacturer, and a nuclear waste management company were among the corporations which received up to $32 million in loans, after they were forced to collectively pay more than $52 million in penalties, according to the analysis. "These companies have a clear history of violating public trust and the law by contaminating the environment in pursuit of profits. Our federal government should not be essentially giving back portions of the penalties they've paid, but that's exactly what the Trump administration is doing through the PPP," Chris Saeger, director of strategic initiatives at Accountable.US, told the HuffPost.The companies include CountryMark Refining and Logistics, a subsidiary of an oil company based in Indiana, which took a PPP loan of $5 million to $10 million in April, seven years after it paid more than $18 million to correct its violations of the Clean Air Act, including emissions standards regarding the carcinogen benzene.Utah-based diesel engine parts company Performance Diesel took a loan between $350,000 and $1 million, just a year after it agreed to pay $1.1 million to settle Clean Air Act violations."Polluters should receive penalties and regulatory scrutiny, not taxpayer subsidies," tweeted Joe Murphy, an environmental attorney in New York.The report comes days after Friends of the Earth, Public Citizen, and BailoutWatch revealed "how the U.S. government provided a safety net for the flagging fossil fuel industry" through coronavirus relief packages by allowing oil and gas companies to issue nearly $100 billion in bonds through the Federal Reserve's bond purchasing program.More than 7,000 fossil fuel companies have received a total of $3 billion to $7 billion in PPP loans, while an estimated 167,735 small businesses, including restaurants and independent retailers, have been forced to close since March. Small business owners reported long delays in actually accessing funds after they were approved for PPP loans in the spring while they struggled to keep their businesses open and employees paid.As of Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was negotiating more potential Covid-19 aid with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. House Democrats passed the HEROES Act in May and a second version of the legislation last week, calling for a reinstatement of the $600 weekly enhanced unemployment benefit included in the CARES Act, $400 billion for state and local governments, child care assistance funding, and funding for Covid-19 testing and contact tracing. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has so far refused to take up the legislation
SBA streamlines forgiveness for PPP loans of $50,000 or less - The Small Business Administration has taken a step toward automatic forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans — but it wasn’t as big a step as bankers were hoping for. The SBA and the Treasury Department, which are administering the PPP, unveiled a streamlined forgiveness application for borrowers with loans of $50,000 or less. The one-page application requires borrowers to calculate the amount of forgiveness they are seeking and provide five certifications attesting that their calculations are accurate, they have submitted appropriate documentation and funds were used for authorized purposes. Lenders’ loan review responsibility is confined to confirming receipt of the application and accompanying documentation. The SBA and Treasury introduced the streamlined application as part of an interim final rule. The rule also exempts borrowers with loans of $50,000 or less from program provisions that reduce the amount of forgiveness for businesses that laid off employees. According to the SBA and Treasury, there are about 3.57 million outstanding PPP loans of $50,000 or less, totaling $62 billion. Those loans equal 69% of all PPP loans but represent just 12% of the program's overall dollar volume. More than 1.7 million of those smaller loans went to businesses that had no employees other than the owner. Trade groups for banks and credit unions have lobbied hard for simplified forgiveness. They showed no inclination of abandoning their efforts after the SBA's announcement late Thursday. Consumer Bankers Association President and CEO Richard Hunt called the streamlined application a move in the right direction, but he said it didn’t exempt enough borrowers and was still too complicated. “This newest process still requires a significant investment of time and resources from small-business owners, resources which could be better spent paying their employees and supporting local economies,” Hunt said in a press release. “While we appreciate SBA and Treasury attempting to streamline the forgiveness process, it is apparent congressional action is needed for the true streamlined forgiveness mom-and-pop businesses need,” Hunt added.
A man attempted to steal $6 million in PPP loans after submitting applications for companies with names from 'Game of Thrones': report - A North Carolina man was charged after reportedly trying to steal over $6 million in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for companies with names from "Game of Thrones." Tristan Bishop Pan, 38, was charged with wire fraud, bank fraud, and engaging in unlawful monetary transactions on September 29 after submitting applications for companies named White Walker, Khaleesi, and The Night's Watch (all references to the popular HBO show), according to the Department of Justice. "Pan made false statements about the companies' employees and payroll expenses," according to the DOJ. "The PPP loan applications were supported by fake documents, including falsified tax filings, according to the indictment." He reportedly submitted 14 PPP loan applications over $6.1 million, and he received more than $1.7 million in benefits after being approved for two applications. The government seized some of the allegedly fraudulent loan benefits, according to the DOJ. In April, the US government launched the PPP as a way to help small businesses financially amid the pandemic. These loans must be used for payroll costs, rent, and utilities. The US Small Business Administration guarantees PPP loans under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, and they released the names of hundreds of thousands of small businesses that received funding from the PPP in July. The CARES Act was built to provide emergency financial assistance to Americans who are suffering economically from the coronavirus pandemic. But the program has been under scrutiny over the possibility of fraud. In July, some banks filed a record-high number of claims of suspected business-loan fraud, according to a report from The Project on Government Oversight.
As 98,000 Businesses Permanently Closed, the Fed and Treasury Have Sat on $340 Billion of Untapped Money from the CARES Act - by Pam Martens - When both parties in Congress came together in March to pass the CARES Act, which was signed into law by President Trump on March 27, the clear intention of the legislation was for the U.S. Treasury to hand over $454 billion of taxpayers’ money to the Federal Reserve. The Fed, in turn, was to leverage the money by 10 times to approximately $4.54 trillion to deploy to keep the economy moving, credit flowing, workers employed and businesses alive until the pandemic had been brought under control. But according to the latest H.4.1 release from the Federal Reserve (and backed up by recent Senate Testimony), six months after the CARES Act was signed into law, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has handed only $114 billion of the $454 billion over to the Fed. That leaves $340 billion allocated by Congress unaccounted for. (See Paragraph 5 (Liabilities) and the related footnote 14 at this link on the Fed’s H.4.1 release.) The Federal Reserve’s H.4.1 release shows that the $114 billion it has received thus far from the Treasury has been allocated as follows: $10 billion to the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF); $37.5 billion to the Corporate Credit Facilities; $37.5 billion to the Main Street Facilities; $17.5 billion to the Municipal Liquidity Facility; $10 billion to the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF II); and $1.5 billion to the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. The bulk of those programs are helping Wall Street, not Main Street. The one program actually called the “Main Street Facilities,” bears little resemblance to the kind of help actual Main Street businesses need right now. Minimum loan amounts in the Fed’s Main Street program are set at $250,000 while many businesses on real Main Streets in America would be highly reluctant to take a loan of that size, given the likely prospect right now that their business won’t make it. What these businesses need more of are Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans where the loan will be forgiven if they keep their workers on payroll. That would allow workers to avoid eviction and help small apartment building landlords stay out of foreclosure. The PPP program, run through the Small Business Administration, ended on August 8. Despite the desperate need, Congress can’t get its act together and pass a new PPP program. A September 16 Local Economic Impact Report from Yelp indicates that while the Fed and Treasury have stonewalled Congress on what is happening with that $340 billion, 97,966 businesses have permanently closed. The devastation has been particularly felt among restaurants, bars and clothing and home décor retailers. According to the Yelp study, as of August 31, there had been 32,109 restaurant closures with 19,590 of those indicated as permanent, or 61 percent. In the same time frame, 6,451 bars had closed with 3,499 reported as permanent (54 percent). Among retailers, since the end of August, there has been 30,374 business closures with 17,503 (58 percent) of those indicated as permanent. And the trend is going in the wrong direction. Yelp reports that permanent closures among retailers have increased by 10 percent since July.
Live updates: President’s blood oxygen levels dropped twice in recent days, doctors say -President Trump’s condition has “improved,” according to White House physician Sean Conley, but the president experienced significant oxygen drops on Friday and Saturday and was given dexamethasone — a steroid that is typically reserved only for severely ill coronavirus patients.Trump’s doctors said he has had no fever since Friday morning, however, and could be discharged as early as Monday. Conley declined to answer questions about the president’s lungs, including whether there is scarring or whether Trump has pneumonia.Aides and doctors have sowed confusion in recent days about Trump’s health status and the timeline of his treatment and diagnosis. The White House on Sunday falsely suggested that doctors did not previously disclose Trump’s use of supplemental oxygen because they lacked the information.Later Sunday, Trump made a surprise visit to supporters, waving to them from inside an SUV that slowly drove past the crowds gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. The outing alarmed Secret Service agents and medical professionals, including a doctor affiliated with Walter Reed who said others in the car were risking their lives for “political theater.”
Photo of Mark Meadows rubbing his head during update on Trump's health goes viral - A photo of President Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, rubbing his head during Sunday’s update on the president’s health went viral. Reuters photographer Erin Scott captured Meadows with his forehead resting on his hands as Navy Cmdr. Sean Conley delivered the update to the media about Trump, who has been at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after testing positive for COVID-19. Corrine Perkins, the North America editor for Reuters Pictures, posted the photo on Twitter. The photo was also tweeted by other Reuters staff and ABC News. Several others commented on the photo, including Associated Press reporter Jonathan Lemire, who said, “This photo tells at least 1,000 words about this weekend.” Greta Van Susteren, host of “Full Court Press,” noted in a tweet that the chief of staff “probably hasn’t slept since Thursday.” Meadows was in hot water this weekend after he was identified to be the source who told reporters on Saturday that Trump’s “vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning, and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care.” Initially, Meadows’s comments were attributed to an official familiar with the president’s condition before an online video revealed that the chief of staff talked to pool reporters after Conley’s Saturday briefing. The New York Times and CNN reported that President Trump is furious with Meadows after he contradicted Conley’s message during Saturday’s press conference that the president was “doing well” and “in exceptionally good spirits.”
Trump says he 'learned a lot' about coronavirus during treatment: 'This is the real school' - President Trump on Sunday said he has "learned a lot" about COVID-19 since his diagnosis, calling his time undergoing treatment the "real school" for the highly contagious virus that has infected more than 7.4 million people in the U.S. "It’s been a very interesting journey. I learned a lot about COVID. I learned it by really going to school. This is the real school. This isn't the 'let's read the books' school," Trump said in a video posted to Twitter. "And I get it, and I understand it, and it's a very interesting thing, and I’m going to be letting you know about it." Trump has been widely criticized by Democrats for his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 209,000 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the most fatalities reported by any country. Trump’s critics have called him out for at times undermining public health guidance issued by his own administration, including holding large in-person campaign rallies without mask or social distancing requirements. In the video Sunday, the president also said he planned to greet supporters who had gathered outside Walter Reed Medical Center, where he is being treated for the coronavirus. Trump was taken to the hospital on Friday after he announced he and his wife had tested positive for the virus. Patients who test positive for COVID-19, a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease, are typically required to quarantine for 14 days. Since Trump announced his positive test, a growing number of Republican officials in his orbit have said they also tested positive for the coronavirus.
Questions remain unanswered as White House casts upbeat outlook on Trump's COVID-19 fight — The White House and President Trump's doctors sought Sunday to project a positive message about the president's battle against COVID-19 even as contradictory statements and limited information left a number of unanswered questions about his condition. The team of doctors caring for Trump on Sunday said he could return to the White House as soon as Monday while at the same time disclosing he had been on supplemental oxygen and that he was receiving a drug normally given to seriously ill patients. And Trump himself sparked concern — and outrage — when he left his hospital room at Walter Reed Military Medical Center to wave to the supporters gathered outside from the back seat of an SUV. White House physician Sean Conley said Sunday that Trump has experienced two episodes of transient drops in his oxygen level since he was diagnosed with the novel coronavirus late Thursday evening and that he had received supplemental oxygen at least once. The doctors also said Trump was given a steroid called dexamethasone that is generally given to people seriously ill with COVID-19, which has killed nearly 210,000 people in the U.S. The White House physician admitted that officials had been intentionally vague a day earlier when pointedly asked when Trump had been administered supplemental oxygen in an attempt to be "upbeat" about the president's prognosis. "I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude that the team, the president, over his course of illness has had. I didn't want to give any information that might steer the course of illness in another direction, and in doing so, came off that we were trying to hide something, which wasn't necessarily true," he told reporters in a Sunday morning news conference outside Walter Reed Medical Center, where Trump has been since Friday. White House communications director Alyssa Farah echoed that sentiment after the medical briefing. "The other point I would make, which is what [Conley] alluded to, is when you're treating a patient, you want to project confidence. You want to lift their spirits, and that was the intent," she said. Even as he disclosed more on Sunday, Conley avoided answering questions about what X-rays and CT scans had revealed and whether Trump’s lungs had been damaged. Asked whether Trump is being held in a negative pressure room, Conley declined to “get into the specifics of his care.” Conley also said that he didn’t know whether Trump had received another dose of supplemental oxygen on Saturday, the second time he experienced a drop in his oxygen level, adding that he would need to check with the president’s nurses.
Melania Trump reportedly refused to leave COVID-19 isolation for fear of infecting Secret Service agents — unlike Trump who took a ride in his motorcade --The first lady, Melania Trump, did not come out of COVID-19 isolation in the White House to visit President Donald Trump in the hospital because she was concerned she might infect the Secret Service agents on her security detail, NBC News reported, citing an unnamed White House official."She has COVID," the official told the outlet in explaining why she did not make the trip Saturday."That would expose the agents who would drive her there and the medical staff who would walk her up to him," the person said.That reasoning contrasts with the actions of her husband, who on Sunday evening left Walter Reed National Military Medical Center — where he has been hospitalized for a few days — and took a ride in an SUV to wave at supporters. One senior medic at the hospital described the move as "political theater" that endangered the lives of the Secret Service agents who accompanied him in the closed vehicle.COVID-19 is highly infectious and spreads most easily in indoor spaces where there is little circulation. "Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days," tweeted Dr. James Phillips, an attending physician at Walter Reed."They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity."
Secret Service agents outraged by Trump’s drive outside hospital -A growing number of Secret Service agents have been concerned about the president’s seeming indifference to the health risks they face when traveling with him in public.A few reacted with outrage to his Sunday night drive outside the hospital where he is being treated for the coronavirus, asking how Trump’s desire to be seen outside of his hospital suite justified the jeopardy to agents protecting the president.The president, who wore a face mask, waved to a crowd from the back of the vehicle after announcing that he would “pay a little surprise to some of the great patriots that we have out on the street.” Doctors immediately criticized the jaunt outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, saying the president had put everyone inside his SUV at risk.“Where are the adults?” said one former agent.“He’s not even pretending to care now,” said another. The White House did not immediately provide information about any precautions taken to protect Secret Service members.
Walter Reed attending physician swipes at Trump for motorcade visit to supporters An attending physician at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Sunday swiped at President Trump for leaving his hospital room and waving to supporters gathered outside from his motorcade, saying it puts those in the vehicle at risk."That Presidential SUV is not only bulletproof, but hermetically sealed against chemical attack. The risk of COVID19 transmission inside is as high as it gets outside of medical procedures. The irresponsibility is astounding. My thoughts are with the Secret Service forced to play," tweeted James Phillips, who is also the chief of disaster medicine at the George Washington University Department of Emergency Medicine. "Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity," he continued.According to photos and videos of the visit to supporters, Trump was seen wearing what appeared to be a cloth face mask, while Secret Service members in the car with him wore N95 masks.Some also pointed out that Trump's drive appeared to violate Maryland public health guidance, which asks that COVID-19-positive people in the state quarantine and isolate themselves from other people.The comments come after Trump tweeted a video in which he said he planned to go say hello to the dozens of supporters who had gathered near the hospital and waved Trump flags.
White House gave New Jersey officials list of 206 people at Trump's Thursday fundraiser events -The White House provided New Jersey health officials with a list of at least 206 people who attended President Trump’s fundraiser events in Bedminster, N.J., last Thursday, officials said on Sunday. The New Jersey Department of Health said in a joint statement with the Somerset County Department of Health that it reached out to all of the individuals who attended the events hours before the president tested positive for COVID-19. The agencies said they received the list from the White House and the management of the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. The state health department made attendees “aware of possible exposure and recommend that they self-monitor for symptoms and quarantine if they were in close contact with the President and his staff.” County health officials are conducting interviews with staff members at the golf club and analyzing how much contact each had with the president and his staff and “providing public health recommendations accordingly.” The statement notes that contact tracing is “ongoing,” and the majority of the club’s staff lives within Somerset County. New Jersey officials said they were told the federal government is also conducting contact tracing. The state and county health officials recommended attendees who want to get tested wait at least five to seven days after Thursday. “While the risk is low, a negative test earlier than that time cannot definitively rule out that COVID-19 will not develop,” the joint statement said.
Is It Ok to Fake Being Healthy??? -- An Honest QUESTION . . . According to the law . . . . Is there any difference between a man with AIDS having unprotected sex with someone and not telling his partner about his disease….AND what TRUMP did in New Jersey ???
Trump Didn’t Disclose First Positive Covid-19 Test While Awaiting a Second Test on Thursday – WSJ — President Trump didn’t disclose a positive result from a rapid test for Covid-19 on Thursday while awaiting the findings from a more thorough coronavirus screening, according to people familiar with the matter.Mr. Trump received a positive result on Thursday evening before making an appearance on Fox News in which he didn’t reveal those results. Instead, he confirmed earlier reports that one of his top aides had tested positive for coronavirus and mentioned the second test he had taken that night for which he was awaiting results.“I’ll get my test back either tonight or tomorrow morning,” Mr. Trump said during the interview. At 1 a.m. on Friday, the president tweeted that he indeed had tested positive.Under White House protocols, the more reliable test that screens a specimen from deeper in the nasal passage is administered only after a rapid test shows a positive reading. Based on people familiar with the matter, the president’s tests followed that protocol.As the virus spread among the people closest to him, Mr. Trump also asked one adviser not to disclose results of their own positive test. “Don’t tell anyone,” Mr. Trump said, according to a person familiar with the conversation.Mr. Trump and his top advisers also aimed to keep such a close hold on the early positive results that his campaign manager, Bill Stepien, didn’t know that Hope Hicks, one of the president’s closest White House aides, had tested positive on Thursday morning until news reports later that evening, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Trump campaign said Friday evening that Mr. Stepien had tested positive.The initial secrecy within Mr. Trump’s inner circle has created a sense of anxiety within the West Wing. Publicly, the White House has issued evolving and contradictory statements about the president’s health that has some officials worried about their own credibility.“I’m glued to Twitter and TV because I have no official communication from anyone in the West Wing,” an administration official said.
President's niece: Trump family viewed illness as a weakness - President Trump’s niece, Mary Trump, told NPR that her uncle, currently hospitalized for treatment of COVID-19, was brought up to view sickness as “unacceptable” and a “weakness.”Mary Trump, a clinical psychologist, told the network that the president and his father, Fred Trump, viewed illness as “unacceptable … which sounds incredibly cruel, but happens to be true.”She pointed to how her father Fred Trump Jr.’s alcoholism was received, telling NPR: "In my family, [it] was treated like a moral failing.”"That's why [the U.S. is] in the horrible place we're in, because he cannot admit to the weakness of being ill or of other people being ill," she added.“Between that and my grandfather's adherence to Norman Vincent Peale's power of positive thinking, which he took to such an extreme level that it was toxic because it left no room for expressions of what he considered negativity of any kind, you know, sadness, despair, being physically ill,” she said, naming the minister and author whose church President Trump attended in his youth. Mary Trump also said she had not heard anything from her family regarding her uncle’s treatment. “Unfortunately, it seems like we can't exactly rely upon the information we're getting directly from the medical team at Walter Reed, which is unfortunate because we really do need as much accurate information as possible in a case like this,” she said. Mary Trump’s late uncle Robert Trump attempted to block the release of her book, “Too Much and Never Enough,” over the summer, citing a nondisclosure agreement she signed after her grandfather’s death. The temporary restraining order filing was ultimately dismissed and the book’s release proceeded in July.
Trump press secretary Kayleigh McEnany tests positive for coronavirus - White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Monday that she has tested positive for the coronavirus, a diagnosis that comes as President Donald Trump remains hospitalized with the virus. "After testing negative consistently, including every day since Thursday, I tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday morning while experiencing no symptoms," McEnany said in a statement that she posted on Twitter. "No reporters, producers, or members of the press are listed as close contacts by the White House Medical Unit." McEnany gave a briefing to reporters at the White House last Thursday, hours before Trump's advisor Hope Hicks was revealed to have tested positive for Covid-19. Trump's diagnosis, and that of his wife, first lady Melania Trump, was revealed shortly thereafter. "I definitively had no knowledge of Hope Hicks' diagnosis prior to holding a White House press briefing on Thursday," McEnany wrote in her Twitter post. "With my recent positive test, I will begin the quarantine process and will continue working on behalf of the American People remotely." In White House circles, McEnany has become a symbol of how closely held the early diagnoses of Covid-19 were among high-ranking officials. While Hicks tested positive for the coronavirus early Thursday, McEnany was not immediately informed of the diagnosis, nor that she herself had been exposed to the virus, until Thursday evening, when press reports began to emerge about Hicks. In the hours between Hicks' positive test and when McEnany learned of it, she briefed the press in the White House briefing room, while not wearing a mask. Melania Trump's spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham, who preceded McEnany as White House press secretary, declined to comment on McEnany's disclosure Monday.
Claudia Conway announces she has coronavirus on TikTok -Claudia Conway announced on social media Sunday that she has coronavirus.“Hey guys currently dying of covid!” Conway, the daughter of President Trump’s former aide Kellyanne Conway, wrote on a TikTok post. Kellyanne Conway announced her own coronavirus diagnosis on Friday minutes after her daughter broke the news.The elder Conway was at the Sept. 26 Rose Garden event for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett with several attendees who later tested positive for the bug.There were roughly 150 high-profile guests in attendance at the event, many without masks.Kellyanne Conway also attended Tuesday night’s presidential debate.
Barr reverses, will quarantine for several days after potential coronavirus exposure Attorney General William Barr reversed his decision to not quarantine following possible exposure to the coronavirus and said instead that he would isolate himself for several days, according to the Associated Press. Barr was exposed to COVID-19 last week at the White House's event announcing the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. A spokesperson for the Justice Department confirmed Barr's decision to the news outlet, though the exact length of Barr's self-imposed quarantine was not immediately clear. Kerri Kupec, the Justice Department's spokesperson, added that Barr had undergone four tests for COVID-19 exposure since Friday, all of which had returned negative results. Barr told the New York Times through a spokesperson the day earlier that he would not quarantine, a decision that came as the Trump administration and the president's reelection campaign have faced increasing scrutiny over their preventative measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic following the president's announcement Friday that he and the first lady had tested positive for the virus. News outlets have hammered allies of the president over the past two days in response to contradictory statements about the president's condition. Allies of the president have also faced criticism over the president's own past unwillingness to appear in public while wearing a mask, as well as the Trump campaign's lack of preventative measures against the spread of the virus.
White House staffers get email saying to stay home if they experience coronavirus symptoms — White House staffers were urged in an email Sunday to "please stay home" and "do not come to work" if they have exhibited any symptoms of the coronavirus. An all-staff email obtained by New York Magazine's Olivia Nuzzi directed members of the White House staff to "immediately contact your primary care provider" and "inform their supervisors" in the event of symptoms being presented. "If you or your colleagues believe that you should be practicing telework, or have questions about your ability to do so, please contact your supervisor," the email reads. The guidance for White House employees came almost three days after the president announced his own diagnosis of COVID-19, along with his wife's, shortly after the confirmation that Hope Hicks, his longtime aide, had tested positive. . It also comes amid a whirlwind of criticism centered around the White House and allies of the president surrounding the president's longstanding resistance against publicly taking measures to prevent the spread of the virus; Trump has frequently made public appearances at rallies and various events without a mask and in apparent violation of various local guidelines enforcing social distancing. The president's allies attempted to defend his past behavior on Sunday as well as his decision to leave Walter Reed Medical Center for a drive-by past supporters gathered outside, even as the White House has faced searing criticism over misleading comments about Trump's health and continued personal fight against COVID-19. "Now more than ever, the American public deserves independent coverage of the president so they can be reliably informed about his health," said the president of the White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) on Sunday.
McEnany’s Press Aides Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt Test Positive For Coronavirus, At Least 18 Now Ill - White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany and two of her deputies have tested positive for the coronavirus as President Donald Trump will be released from hospital Monday, suffering from coronavirus. McEnany and her two deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt, are among at least 18 people people in the White House, or connected to Trump’s reelection campaign or to recent White House events, who have tested positive for Covid-19 since late last week.“After testing negative consistently, including every day since Thursday, I tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday morning while experiencing no symptoms,” McEnany said on Twitter.“No reporters, producers, or members of the press are listed as close contacts by the White House Medical Unit.”It was not clear when Gilmartin, who is principal assistant press secretary, and Leavitt, who is assistant press secretary, tested positives for Covid-19. Their diagnoses, which were confirmed by NBC News with two sources familiar with their situation, were made public only after McEnany disclosed her diagnois on Twitter.The other people connected to Trump and recent White House events who have tested positive since Thursday include Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, three Republican senators, Mike Lee of Utah, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, as well as Nick Luna, the president’s personal assistant. University of Notre Dame President John Jenkins also tested positive, after attending a White House event announcing Trump’s nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. In addition, at least three journalists who were at the White House over the past week have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to the White House Correspondents Association.
Fox News Stars Potentially Exposed to Coronavirus at Debate - A son of Rupert Murdoch and some of the biggest stars at Fox News were potentially exposed to the coronavirus after attending Tuesday’s presidential debate in Cleveland, and the network is planning for its anchors, reporters and staff to be tested out of an abundance of caution, according to a person familiar with its plans.Lachlan Murdoch, executive chairman of the Fox Corporation, led a toast to Chris Wallace, the “Fox News Sunday” anchor who moderated the debate, at a Cleveland airport after the event. The gathering included two of the channel’s news anchors, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, along with the Fox News chief executive, Suzanne Scott, and the president of Fox News Media, Jay Wallace. Chris Wallace, who sat about a dozen feet from President Trump during Tuesday’s 96-minute event, then flew on a private plane to the Washington area in a group that included Mr. Baier and other Washington-based members of the Fox News staff. Sean Hannity, Fox News’s top-rated opinion star, also broadcast from Cleveland on the night of the debate, during which he conducted an in-person interview with the president’s son, Donald J. Trump Jr., who sat only a few inches away from Mr. Hannity. Other Fox News personalities in Cleveland included the political analysts Brit Hume, Dana Perino, and Juan Williams, and the anchor Bill Hemmer. Karl Rove, the Republican strategist and Fox News contributor, was also on hand.In addition, Laura Ingraham, the 10 p.m. opinion host on Fox News, attended a news conference at the White House on Saturday where Mr. Trump announced the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Another Fox News host, Pete Hegseth, also attended. Many of those in the crowd at the Barrett event did not wear masks.Fox News declined to comment on Friday. But a person familiar with the network’s workings said that the hosts, reporters, and staff who were potentially exposed to the virus over the past week would be tested out of an abundance of caution. The person requested anonymity to describe internal discussions that were not yet public. John Roberts, the network’s chief White House correspondent, and Jon Decker, a Fox News Radio correspondent, both attended a White House news briefing with Mr. Trump’s press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, on Thursday. The two correspondents are also expected to be tested for the virus.
Trump announces he's leaving hospital after three days of coronavirus treatment - President Trump said he would leave Walter Reed Medical Center and return to the White House on Monday at 6:30 p.m. ET, three days after being admitted to the hospital for treatment of complications from COVID-19. “I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M.” Trump tweeted Monday afternoon. “Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” Early Friday morning, Trump announced that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus. The president was brought to the hospital via Marine One on Friday night after he had developed a fever and his blood oxygen level had “dropped rapidly” and required supplemental oxygen, according to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Trump received an experimental antibody treatment along with the antiviral remdesivir and the anti-inflammatory steroid dexamethasone. Both of the latter drugs were in use before the coronavirus pandemic hit and before Trump took office. Trump’s medical conditioned has remained unclear after White House physician Dr. Sean Conley admitted to reporters Sunday that, during a briefing a day earlier, he had tried to conceal the fact that the president had received oxygen at the White House. “I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude of the team [and] the president over the course of his illness,” Conley said. “I didn’t want to give any info that might steer the course of illness in another direction, and it came off that we were trying to hide something, which wasn’t necessarily true.” Trump has released two videos on social media from the hospital thanking his followers for well wishes, and in one proclaiming he had “learned a lot about COVID” by going to the “real school.” The White House released photographs that it said showed Trump working at a table while in the presidential unit of Walter Reed, although the paper he was shown signing in one photo appeared to be blank. Late Sunday afternoon, Trump briefly left Walter Reed in a motorcade to salute flag-waving supporters outside the hospital, drawing sharp criticism for putting the driver, his aides and Secret Service at risk of contracting the virus.
Covid-19 Live Updates: Trump Returns Home After Downplaying Disease, but Doctor Says He Isn’t ‘Out of the Woods’ - After spending three nights at the Walter Reed medical center, President Trump returned on Monday evening to the White House, where he will continue to receive treatment for Covid-19. His physician, Dr. Sean P. Conley, had said earlier in the day that the president was not “out of the woods yet.” After passing through the hospital’s large golden doors, Mr. Trump, wearing a mask and a suit, paused atop a flight of steps and pumped his fist a few times at chest level. He did not respond to shouted questions from the press as he walked past, unaccompanied. “Thank you very much, everybody,” he said with a wave. Mr. Trump then boarded a black S.U.V. that drove him to his presidential helicopter, Marine One, for the short flight to the White House. He offered a thumbs-up just before stepping onto his helicopter, which departed just after 6:45 p.m. for the 10-minute flight. After landing on the South Lawn, Mr. Trump ascended a flight of stairs and then turned to face his helicopter — and the live television cameras — and removed his mask before giving the departing Marine One a long salute. He then turned and walked into the White House residence — without donning his mask. Several masked people, including what appeared to be an official photographer capturing the moment, were inside. The three major network newscasts on ABC, CBS and NBC carried it all live, the kind of blanket television coverage that Mr. Trump relishes.
Covid drug given to Trump developed using cells derived from an abortion - One of the drugs taken by Donald Trump that he has touted as a potential “cure” for coronavirus was developed using human cells originally obtained from an elective abortion, a practice repeatedly denounced by the president and many of his supporters. The drug is a monoclonal antibody cocktail developed by Regeneron. The president received an 8-gram infusion under a “compassionate use” exemption when he was hospitalized over the weekend after testing positive for Covid-19. There is no cure for Covid-19, and the drug is not approved. The cells used to develop the drug are known as HEK-293T cells, a line of cells used in laboratories. The cells were originally derived from an embryonic kidney after an elective abortion performed in the Netherlands in the 1970s. HEK-293 cells are one of the most commonly used cell lines in laboratories across a wide array of research. Trump has consistently sought to restrict abortion access, including most recently, when he nominated the conservative Catholic Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court last month. The anti-abortion movement is one of Trump’s most enthusiastic bases of support. The 2020 Republican party platform explicitly opposes embryonic stem cell research, and calls for a ban on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, because like HEK cells they are derived from an embryo.
Trump tells Americans following his hospital release: Don't let coronavirus 'dominate you' - President Trump on Monday implored Americans not to allow the novel coronavirus to “dominate your lives” after returning to the White House from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was treated for three days after being diagnosed with COVID-19. “Don’t let it dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it. We have the best medical equipment. We have the best medicines, all developed recently,” Trump, who was not wearing a mask, said in a video message taped at the White House and disseminated on his Twitter account. “Don’t let it dominate. Don’t let it take over your lives. Don’t let that happen,” Trump continued. The president insisted that he felt “better than 20 years ago” after receiving treatment from doctors at Walter Reed in Bethesda, Md., where he was transported on Friday after being diagnosed with the virus. Trump, who has held large campaign rallies in recent weeks, also suggested that he contracted the virus because he was “out front” leading the country. And he wondered whether he was now “immune” to the virus, four days after testing positive. “Nobody that is a leader would not do what I did. And I know there’s a risk, there’s a danger, but that’s OK. And now I’m better. Maybe I’m immune. I don’t know. But don’t let it dominate your lives. Get out there. Be careful. We have the best medicines in the world,” Trump said. The president’s remarks served to expand on a tweet he sent earlier Monday in which he announced his plans to leave Walter Reed and urged Americans not to fear the virus, which has killed more than 210,000 people into the United States and has resulted in millions losing their jobs. Globally, more than 1 million have died from COVID-19. Trump has repeatedly downplayed the threat posed by the coronavirus, and his message indicated that his rhetoric would not shift now that he has faced his own infection. He has also eschewed public health guidelines, holding rallies and White House events with crowds where people are not required to wear masks and do not practice social distancing. Upon his return to the White House from Walter Reed on Monday evening, the president walked up the steps of the residence and promptly removed his face mask despite likely still being infectious. Trump has been afforded top-notch care at Walter Reed, the sort that is not available to average Americans. According to his doctors, the president has taken the antiviral medication remdesivir, the steroid dexamethasone and an experimental antibody cocktail made by Regeneron. Trump is expected to receive a fifth and final dose of remdesivir at the White House on Tuesday and will continue to receive dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation.
Trump stages White House return to boost back-to-work policy and election coup plans - President Donald Trump left Walter Reed Medical Center and returned to the White House Monday night in an event staged for the evening television news and aimed at promoting an image of strength and power to offset the devastating impact of his falling ill with COVID-19. The clear intention was to reaffirm his criminal policy of “herd immunity,” i.e., opposing measures to contain the pandemic, which has already led to the deaths of more than 210,000 Americans. Trump staged a Nazi-like photo-op on the White House balcony whose obvious intention is to inspire his fascistic base. As a substantial defeat at the polls appears increasingly likely, Trump's strategy to retain power is focused on the use of non-electoral, illegal, unconstitutional and violent methods. Trump has denounced mail-in ballots and called on far-right supporters to intimidate in-person voters as well. He is counting on the cowardice and complicity of his Democratic Party opponents, who fear a movement from below against both the Trump administration and the capitalist system as a whole. The political purpose of Trump’s departure from the hospital, while he remains highly infectious, was indicated by a tweet that encapsulates both the class arrogance and the homicidal frenzy of the American corporate elite. In it, Trump said he felt “really good,” and declared, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life… I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” Shortly after his return to the White House, Trump tweeted a video in which he declared his “victory” over COVID-19 and repeated: “Don’t let it dominate your lives. Don’t be afraid… We’re going back. We’re going back to work.” Trump is making clear, in his brutish style, that American capitalism will not allow the health concerns of working people to “dominate” over the profit concerns of the corporations and banks, and the billionaires who control them. After all, he is arguing, if I, the president, can go “back to work,” so can autoworkers, meatpackers, warehouse workers and school teachers. Never mind that none of these millions of workers has access to anything like the medical resources and technology available to the billionaire president.
Trump removes mask upon arrival at White House | TheHill - President Trump, who is infected with a highly contagious virus, took off his mask upon his return to the White House on Monday as he posed for photos from the balcony above the South Lawn. The president posed for photos and appeared to be taking part in a video shoot following his return to the executive mansion after spending three days undergoing treatment for COVID-19 at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. After landing in Marine One, Trump walked up the stairs of the South Portico, removed his mask and looked over the balcony. The president was near an official photographer, and other staffers could be seen behind him. He did not put his mask back on as he turned to walk back into the White House. The image reflects how Trump appears largely unchanged in his views toward COVID-19 even after contracting the virus that has killed more than 200,000 people in the U.S. and infected millions. The president earlier in the day tweeted to his followers, "Don't be afraid of Covid. Don't let it dominate your life." Trump revealed Friday that he and the first lady had tested positive for the virus. He was taken to Walter Reed later that day and has been showing symptoms, including fatigue and fever. The president required supplemental oxygen on Friday and Saturday as well. White House physician Sean Conley told reporters earlier Monday that Trump was healthy enough to leave the hospital, citing his vitals and clinical evaluations. But he acknowledged that the president, who is 74 and overweight and thus at risk for severe complications, was not out of the woods yet. "If we can get through to Monday with him remaining the same or improving better yet, then we will all take that final deep sigh of relief," Conley said.
Piecing together clues, medical experts suggest Trump could be entering a pivotal phase in his fight against Covid-19.- The White House physician, Dr. Sean P. Conley, said on Tuesday that President Trump was experiencing no symptoms of Covid-19 and doing “extremely well” on his first full day at home since a three-night stay in the hospital. But outside doctors and medical experts in Covid-19 and lung disease said they were struggling to piece together an accurate picture of Mr. Trump’s health. Far from having vanquished Covid-19, the outside experts said, Mr. Trump is most likely still struggling with it, and possibly entering a pivotal phase in which he could take a turn for the worse. Dr. Conley said on Monday that Mr. Trump had been prescribed dexamethasone, which some experts saw as a sign that the president could be dealing with pulmonary issues since it is recommended only for Covid-19 patients who have severe or critical forms of the disease. “Does he have lung involvement? My guess is yes, because they did give him a lot of medications that they would only give to someone who did,” said Dr. Mangala Narasimhan, a pulmonologist and director of critical care services at Northwell Health in New York. In a televised event on Monday that some of the president’s Republican allies tried to frame as a quick recovery from the virus, Mr. Trump was flown from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to the White House. After leaving his helicopter, he crossed the lawn, walked up a set of stairs and removed his mask. “As a pulmonologist, he did two things for me: He did a walk test, and he did a stair-climbing test,” said Dr. Talmadge E. King Jr., a specialist in pulmonary critical care and the dean of the UCSF School of Medicine. He added that lung doctors still rely on tests like these “to just get a picture of how the patient’s doing.” He and others said that at the top of the stairs, Mr. Trump used his neck muscles to help him breathe — a classic sign that someone’s lungs are not taking in enough oxygen. Dr. Ilan Schwartz, an infectious disease doctor and assistant professor at the University of Alberta, agreed. “As a physician, I would refrain from commenting on somebody whom I haven’t examined,” he said. “But in this case, the clinical signs are so obvious that it can be seen from a distance, even on a short two- or three-second clip.”
CDC finally acknowledges airborne spread of coronavirus — In guidance updated on Monday afternoon, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finally acknowledged that “airborne transmission” of “small droplets” can be responsible for coronavirus infections, including at a distance of more than six feet away, in some situations.The updated guidance reflects a continuing battle between public health officials and the Trump administration over how to accurately describe risks associated with different environments.Although scientists have long known that the coronavirus is spread through air — as opposed to the unlikely form of transmission from touching contaminated surfaces — the debate over whether it is “airborne” has to do with just how long viral particles linger in the air and what size those particles must be to remain infectious.“There is evidence that under certain conditions, people with COVID-19 seem to have infected others who were more than 6 feet away. These transmissions occurred within enclosed spaces that had inadequate ventilation. Sometimes the infected person was breathing heavily, for example while singing or exercising,” the updated guidance says. The new guidance appears to caution against activities such as political rallies and sports events, where many people may be crowded together indoors. The CDC now says that, in those enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces, “the amount of infectious smaller droplet and particles produced by the people with COVID-19 became concentrated enough to spread the virus to other people. The people who were infected were in the same space during the same time or shortly after the person with COVID-19 had left.” The CDC has frequently found its scientists silenced or subverted by the White House, which has consistently sought to downplay the risks of contracting a virus that has killed 210,000 people in the United States. In late September, the CDC was forced to delete a guidance describing the airborne qualities of the coronavirus. The agency said that guidance had been a “draft” that was “posted in error.” Critics charged that political pressure was at work.
Trump health official meets with doctors pushing herd immunity | TheHill - A top Trump health official met Monday with a group of doctors who are proponents of the controversial “herd immunity” approach to COVID-19, even as other experts warn of its deadly and dangerous consequences. Martin Kulldorff, a professor at Harvard; Sunetra Gupta, a professor at Oxford; and Jay Bhattacharya, a professor at Stanford, all of whom are epidemiologists studying infectious diseases, were invited to the meeting by Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar and Scott Atlas, an adviser to Trump on whom other experts have cast doubt for his statements about COVID-19, including his endorsement of herd immunity. In the meeting, the three doctors told Azar that allowing the virus to spread uncontrolled among young, healthy people while protecting older adults and those at higher risk for serious illness would build up enough population immunity to stop it from spreading widely while avoiding lockdowns and other mitigation measures that have had a damaging impact on the economy. "We had a very good discussion. He asked many questions, and we put forth our case to protect the people who are vulnerable, and the idea of trying to do lockdowns to eliminate this disease is not realistic," Kulldorff said. Other experts argue that allowing COVID-19 to spread uncontrollably would lead to unnecessary deaths, illness and hospitalizations, even if the U.S. attempted to isolate vulnerable people from the rest of the population while the virus spreads. Herd immunity is typically accomplished when enough people are vaccinated against a virus, but a vaccine has not yet been approved for COVID-19. The idea of allowing the virus to spread uncontrollably is gaining traction in the White House, where Atlas is advising President Trump, who is battling his own case of COVID-19. Atlas told The Hill in an email that he attended the meeting and supports the declaration the group put out endorsing herd immunity. “Their targeted protection of the vulnerable and opening schools and society policy matches the policy of the President and what I have advised,” he wrote. After this story was published, Bhattacharya, the Stanford professor, said it was “false” to say the group was pushing a herd immunity strategy. “A herd immunity strategy better describes the current lockdown policy,” he said in an email. “Herd immunity is a biological fact so of course we mention it, but it is not our strategy.” The Great Barrington declaration signed by the doctors argues that the lockdown policies “are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health,” including fewer cancer screenings, lower childhood vaccination rates and deteriorating mental health. It said keeping restrictions in place until a vaccine is available will cause damage, and makes the case for allowing young people to get the coronavirus while shielding the vulnerable from it so that herd immunity is built up without a vaccine. The group calls this “focused protection.”“The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk,” the declaration reads. “We call this Focused Protection.” The declaration calls for schools and universities to be opened for in-person teaching with sports and other extracurricular activities resumed. Young adults should work normally and not at home, it says, with restaurants and other businesses opened.
Trump Again Claims Coronavirus Less Deadly Than Flu, Prompting Facebook and Twitter to Block His Post - Both Facebook and Twitter acted Tuesday to flag a post by President Donald Trump in which he once again downplayed the new coronavirus by comparing it to the seasonal flu."Flu season is coming up!," Trump said in the post, as CNBC reported. "Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!" This is not true. COVID-19 has killed 210,909 U.S. residents so far, according to the most recent figures from Johns Hopkins University. That's almost 10 times more than the 22,000 estimated deaths during the 2019-2020 flu season, following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures. The 2017-2018 flu season, which was the deadliest since 2010, saw around 61,000 deaths, CNBC reported. The coronavirus also has a much higher mortality rate, NPR pointed out. The seasonal flu usually has a mortality rate of less than 0.1 percent, while the coronavirus in the U.S. has had an estimated mortality rate of between 0.5 percent and slightly more than one percent.Facebook removed the post altogether around 11 a.m. Eastern Time, CNBC reported."We remove incorrect information about the severity of Covid-19, and have now removed this post," a Facebook spokesperson told CNBC.Twitter did not remove the post altogether, but instead covered it with a warning that users had to click past in order to view the tweet and also prevented it from being shared. It posted the warning more than three hours after Trump wrote the tweet."This Tweet violated the Twitter Rules about spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to COVID-19," the social media company wrote. "However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public's interest for the Tweet to remain accessible."
Donald Trump Personally to Blame for 37 Percent of the World’s COVID-19 Misinformation, Study Finds - It’s easy to dismiss President Donald Trump’s witless mutterings about the coronavirus pandemic as laughable or patently untrue, like when he suggested injecting sunlight into human bodies. But a study has found that the knock-on effect of his baseless claims are much more far-reaching and damaging than many might think. Researchers at Cornell University who analyzed 38 million articles about the pandemic in English-language media around the world found that mentions of Trump made up nearly 38 percent of the overall “misinformation conversation,” making the president the largest single source of falsehoods about the pandemic. Sarah Evanega, the study’s lead author, toldThe New York Times that the work proves Trump’s loose lips have “real-world dire health implications.”
White House Blocks FDA Guidelines for COVID-19 Vaccine - New guidelines produced by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ensure the safety of a vaccine to protect against the novel coronavirus are being blocked by White House officials. The new guidelines would almost certainly guarantee that a vaccine would not be ready and approved by Election Day, according to The New York Times. An administration official told Reuters that the approval process was pending and there was no connection to Election Day. The thorniest issue seems to be that the FDA guidelines mandate that vaccine developers follow patients enrolled in their trials for a minimum of two months before seeking approval for the vaccine under an Emergency Use Authorization license, according to the AP.The recommendation from the FDA about the follow-up period is designed to make sure the vaccine is safe. A senior administration official confirmed that the White House was blocking the guideline, arguing there was "no clinical or medical reason" to wait two months, as the AP reported.Two weeks ago, when the FDA signaled that it would issue tougher standards to increase transparency and increase public trust in the safety and efficacy of a vaccine, Trump signaled he may not be open to the tougher standards, dismissing it as a political move, according to The Hill.During the weeks that the FDA has tried to implement stricter guidelines to ensure safety and efficacy, FDA Administrator Stephen Hahn has vowed that any and all decisions about approving a potential vaccine would be made by career scientists, not politicians, according to the AP. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has blocked the guidelines from moving forward, arguing the two-month follow up of patients would alter the rules in the midst of clinical trials. He also suggested that Hahn was bowing to pressure from career scientists, according to The New York Times. In the face of White House resistance, the FDA is looking for a workaround, which includes handing off the standards to an advisory committee that must meet publicly before an emergency authorization license is granted. The idea behind the maneuver would be to have the committee adhere to the guidelines, even when confronted by the Trump administration's resistance to them, as The New York Times reported.The administration's move to block the guidelines is undermining the public's trust that a vaccine is safe and effective. If one is released without public trust, that may make people resistant to receiving it, which would derail an immunization campaign.
Former vaccine chief demoted amid White House criticism quits post - Rick Bright, who said he was demoted from his position at the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) due to criticism of the Trump Administration’s COVID-19 response, has resigned from the government. In an updated whistleblower complaint filed Tuesday, Bright claims that the National Institutes of Health (NIH), where he was demoted in April, rejected his recommendations for fixing the nation’s COVID-19 testing strategy due to “political considerations.” He further claims that he had not been assigned new work since Sept. 4, when he completed the one assignment he was given. Bright further raised alarms that Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist who is one of Trump’s COVID-19 advisers, was “calling the shots” at the White House despite not having a background in infectious diseases. Bright’s lawyers, Debra Katz and Lisa Banks, said in a statement that Bright resigned because “he can no longer sit idly by and work for an administration that ignores scientific expertise, overrules public health guidance and disrespects career scientists, resulting the in the sickness and death of hundreds of thousands of Americans.” In his initial whistleblower complaint in May, Bright alleged that he encountered hostility from the Department of Health and Human Services about the threat of the virus. He further claimed he was ousted over intervening in the administration's strategy to make chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine — two drugs the president has pushed as treatments for the virus — widely available.
US safety agency undermines federal oversight of COVID-19 workplace spread - The US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has rewritten its workplace safety guidelines regarding reporting of COVID-19 infections to give employers a blank check to allow the spread of coronavirus throughout their workforces. While the deadly virus has ripped through food processing plants, Amazon facilities, auto factories and nursing homes, OSHA has done little or nothing. Since the start of the pandemic the federal agency responsible for workplace safety has only issued citations to 30 employers even though it has received 9,000 complaints and 1,200 referrals from other agencies relating to the handling of COVID-19. OSHA’s highest proposed fine to date is just $40,482. According to a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, OHSA recently withdrew its first coronavirus citation after issuing a new legal interpretation. The withdrawn citation concerned Winder Health Care, a nursing home outside Athens, Georgia. The citation of Winder came after OSHA found that the nursing facility failed to report within 24 hours that six employees had been hospitalized with COVID-19. Instead, the nursing home reportedly waited more than two weeks. Initially, the fine proposed by OSHA was a token $6,506 for an “other-than-serious” violation. That was later reduced to just $3,904. In revoking the fine against Winder, OSHA posted revised wording on its website stating that employers must only report a hospitalization if it occurs within 24-hours of a worker being exposed to the virus on the job. Since the incubation period of the virus after initial exposure is days, if not weeks, this will virtually never happen. The change, in effect, abolishes any requirement that companies notify OSHA of employee COVID-related hospitalizations. Colin Smith, a clinical assistant professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health, told the Journal-Constitution, “The burden of proof has been set so high, that this appears to be another pro-business endeavor to excuse non-reporting.” Further, the governor of Georgia signed legislation earlier this year shielding businesses and health care providers from liability lawsuits as long as they follow basic health protocols. As of Sept. 4, OSHA had conducted just 199 inspections in response to complaints and closed more than 8,000 cases without taking any action.
New England Journal of Medicine Urges Readers to Oust Trump Over Bungled Coronavirus Response - For the first time in more than two centuries of publication, the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) has taken a stand on a U.S. election.In an editorial titled "Dying in a Leadership Vacuum" published Wednesday, the journal condemned the Trump administration for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic."Covid-19 has created a crisis throughout the world," the editors wrote. "This crisis has produced a test of leadership. With no good options to combat a novel pathogen, countries were forced to make hard choices about how to respond. Here in the United States, our leaders have failed that test. They have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy."The editors pointed to the outsized U.S. caseload and death toll — the country still leads the world for both metrics. They compared the U.S. numbers with other countries that had greater vulnerabilities but much lower death tolls, such as China, where COVID-19 originated; Japan, which has a large elderly population; and Vietnam, which has fewer resources. They pointed out that the death rate in China was three per million, while in the U.S. it was more than 500 per million.Further, they highlighted specific failures in pandemic response, such as an early delay in widespread testing and getting proper protective gear to frontline medical workers. They also railed against the politicization ofpublic health."[I]n much of the country, people simply don't wear masks, largely because our leaders have stated outright that masks are political tools rather than effective infection control measures," they wrote. Finally, they argued that the U.S. had the ability to respond well to the pandemic, both because of its manufacturing capabilities and its many scientific institutions and experts. But instead of listening to these experts, the editors said, the current administration sidelined them. It either undermined, ignored or politicized government institutions like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health that could have led an effective response."Our leaders have largely claimed immunity for their actions. But this election gives us the power to render judgment. Reasonable people will certainly disagree about the many political positions taken by candidates. But truth is neither liberal nor conservative. When it comes to the response to the largest public health crisis of our time, our current political leaders have demonstrated that they are dangerously incompetent. We should not abet them and enable the deaths of thousands more Americans by allowing them to keep their jobs," the editorial concluded. While the editorial does not mention President Donald Trump or his election rival former Vice President Joe Biden by name, it is a clear call to oust the president at the polls in November. "It should be clear that we are not a political organization," NEJM editor in chief Dr. Eric Rubin told The New York Times. "But pretty much every week in our editorial meeting there would be some new outrage. How can you not speak out at a time like this?"
Coronavirus -- Pentagon Chiefs Enter Quarantine after Coronavirus Exposure - Several of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, including Chairman Mark Milley, have moved to quarantine after learning that they were likely exposed to the coronavirus in recent days. Admiral Charles Ray, vice commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, tested positive for coronavirus on Monday. Ray experienced symptoms over the weekend, and attended multiple meetings with members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in recent days, CNN reported. “Out of an abundance of caution, all potential close contacts from these meetings are self-quarantining and have been tested this morning,” Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman saidin a statement. “No Pentagon contacts have exhibited symptoms and we have no additional positive tests to report at this time.” Milley, who has so far tested negative, will be working from home during the upcoming days. Chief of Staff Charles Brown, head of the U.S. Air Force, will also quarantine at home. “The Coast Guard is following established policies for COVID, per CDC guidelines, to include quarantine and contact tracing,” the Coast Guard said in a statement on Tuesday. “According to CDC guidelines, any Coast Guard personnel that were in close contact will also quarantine.” The news comes after multiple top Republican officials have contracted coronavirus, including President Trump and Senators Mike Lee (R., Utah), Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) and Thom Tillis (R., N.C.).
White House event for families of deceased U.S. troops thrust into new light after admiral’s coronavirus diagnosis - The White House’s handling of an event for the family members of deceased U.S. troops was thrust into a new light on Tuesday amid the disclosure that a Coast Guard admiral who attended has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, forcing some of the military’s top generals and admirals into quarantine.The Sept. 27 ceremony, held on Gold Star Mother’s and Family’s Day with dozens of people in attendance, recognized the families of 20 deceased service members, according to a copy of the event program obtained by The Washington Post.President Trump, Vice President Pence, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and some of the military’s top generals and admirals were also at the event, which was held in the East Room. Most attendees did not wear masks or maintain social distancing, White House photographs of the event show. Adm. Charles W. Ray, the vice commandant of the Coast Guard, tested positive for the coronavirus on Monday, the service said in a statement on Tuesday. He had begun experiencing mild symptoms over the weekend, a week after attending the Gold Star event, but “is in good spirits,” Rear Adm. Jon Hickey, a senior Coast Guard spokesman, said in the statement. “In accordance with established Coast Guard COVID policies, he will be quarantining from home for the required 14-day timeframe, where he will continue to perform his duties as Vice Commandant,” Hickey said. Other senior defense officials who attended the White House event include Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chief of staff of the Air Force; Gen. David H. Berger, the commandant of the Marine Corps; Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army; and Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy.
Democrats rip Trump for suggesting Gold Star families could have given him Covid-19 - Top congressional Democrats condemned President Donald Trump on Thursday after the commander in chief suggested that he might have contracted Covid-19 from Gold Star family members who were too close to him when telling stories of their loved ones who died in the line of duty. Democrats said Trump's comments, made in an interview with Fox Business Thursday morning, disrespected military families and shifted blame for his administration's shortcomings on the coronavirus. "Whether he intended it or not, the President has blamed an event with families who lost their loved ones in battle for giving him COVID. That is a shocking statement even for this President," Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement. "He must immediately apologize. Failure to do so would be yet another example of his callous disregard and disrespect for the women and men of our Armed Forces who we ask to stand in harm’s way." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in her weekly press conference on Capitol Hill that Trump's comments underscore the need for the administration to disclose when the president last tested negative for the coronavirus. "It is a very important question for our country, because now the president is saying that he probably got this from the Gold Star families," Pelosi said. "Can you believe that he would say such a thing?" In the interview, Trump told host Maria Bartiromo that he “figured there would be a chance” he would become infected with the coronavirus, citing his meetings with the families of America’s war dead at the White House on Sept. 27. “Sometimes, I’d be in groups of, for instance, Gold Star families. I met with Gold Star families. I didn’t want to cancel that,” he said. “But they all came in, and they all talk about their son and daughter and father. And, you know, they all came up to me, and they tell me a story.” Trump explained that as he was being told these stories about fallen service members, “I can’t say, ‘Back up, stand 10 feet,’ you know? I just can’t do it.” The Gold Star family members “come within an inch of my face, sometimes,” Trump said. “They want to hug me, and they want to kiss me. And they do. And, frankly, I’m not telling them to back up. I’m not doing it.”
Stephen Miller Tests Positive as White House Outbreak Grows - The New York Times - On Tuesday evening, senior administration officials confirmed that Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s top speechwriter and a policy adviser, had tested positive for the coronavirus, joining a growing list of Mr. Trump’s close aides who have the virus. “Over the last five days I have been working remotely and self-isolating, testing negative every day through yesterday,” Mr. Miller said in a statement. “Today, I tested positive for Covid-19 and am in quarantine.”Mr. Miller is married to Katie Miller, Vice President Mike Pence’s communications director. A senior administration official said Ms. Miller, who contracted the virus this spring and returned to work in May, was tested Tuesday morning and was negative for any new infection.On Tuesday, many White House offices were empty as officials stayed home to wait out the infectious period from an outbreak of the coronavirus within the building and among people who had been there.President Trump was in the White House residence, convalescing, as a number of advisers and other officials stayed home, either because they had contracted the coronavirus or had been near people who did.The White House communications and press shops were bereft of people. The White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, announced on Monday that she had tested positive. Two other press office aides have also contracted the virus, and two more aides on Tuesday were said to have tested positive, people familiar with the results said.The outbreak in the White House, which has extended to some lawmakers on Capitol Hill, has raised concerns in the city that surrounds it. Washington, D.C., which has managed to bring infection rates down in recent weeks through preventive laws and high rates of compliance, has almost no control over the federal government.The city reported 105 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday, the highest number since June 3.The gathering at the Rose Garden would have violated the city’s mandates limiting the size of gatherings and requiring masks. But because the White House is on federal property, it is exempt from such rules.City officials said they would be closely monitoring infection trends for several days to see if the Capitol and White House cases affected the city’s overall infection rate.
Fourth White House press aide tests positive for COVID-19 - White House press aide Jalen Drummond tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg News reporter, adding to the growing list of people to contract the virus after attending a White House Rose Garden ceremony. Drummond is the third aide under White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany to test positive for COVID-19. Press deputies Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt have also reportedly tested positive for the virus, according to CNN, and McEnany herself tested positive on Monday. Drummond was reportedly in attendance at the White House Rose Garden event on Sept. 26, in which President Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as an associate Supreme Court justice. Since the event, multiple attendees close to the president have tested positive for the virus, including the president himself and first lady Melania Trump. Others around the president who have tested positive include former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Thom Tillis (N.C.). Zeke Miller, president of the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA), said in a statement that he was “concerned” by the reported diagnosis, and has not been provided information by the White House. “We are told that close contacts for any cases will be traced and notified by the White House Medical Unit according to CDC guidelines,” Miller said, referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
32 Sickened In White House COVID-19 Outbreak As 4th Press Shop Aide Tests Positive - CNN and NYT have just reported that a 4th White House press aide has tested positive for COVID-19. That individual is at least the 32nd person to test positive in the White House outbreak (which right now doesn't include the joint chiefs, who have all tested negative and are quarantingin at home). If accurate, that's at least the 31st person to test positive who is connected to the White House outbreak. Here's the complete list:
- Donald Trump
- Melania Trump, first lady
- Hope Hicks, senior adviser to the president
- Bill Stepien, Trump campaign manager
- Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor who helped Trump prepare for debate
- Kellyanne Conway, former White House senior adviser
- Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Committee chairwoman
- Mike Lee, Republican senator from Utah
- Thom Tillis, Republican senator from North Carolina
- Ron Johnson, Republican senator from Wisconsin
- Nick Luna, Trump’s personal attendant
- Kayleigh McEnany, press secretary
- Chad Gilmartin, White House press office
- Karoline Leavitt, White House press office
- Jalen Drummond, assistant press secretary
- Charles Ray, vice commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard
- Jayna McCarron, Coast Guard aide to the president
- 11 staffers from Cleveland debate
- Anonymous 4th press ship aide
- 3 White House reporters
McCarron's illness was reported earlier on Tuesday. In addition, a top Coast Guard commander has also been sickened (in an unrelated incident, it seems) sending the others into quarantine. With Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and four of her staffers out, we can't help but wonder: who is left on the comms team depth chart?
COVID-19 cuts a swathe through official Washington - While President Trump declares his own infection with COVID-19 a “blessing from God,” the coronavirus is cutting a swathe through official Washington, hitting dozens of White House aides, the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff and well over a hundred members of Congress and their staff. Ignoring the fact that the vast majority of coronavirus patients cannot hope to receive the level of care he received—including dozens of doctors, an entire floor of the Walter Reed Medical Center, and a battery of drugs, including some still experimental—Trump presented his own disease and apparent recovery as divinely ordained. Presumably God has also chosen to infect every one of the dozens of White House officials and other Republican Party operatives who likely contracted coronavirus at one of several “superspreader” events at the White House. The September 26 announcement of Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court was attended by some 200 people, nearly all unmasked and none observing social distancing. Among those infected subsequently are Trump, his wife Melania, top aides including Kellyanne Conway and Stephen Miller, US senators Thom Tillis and Mike Lee, the president of Notre Dame University, where Barrett is a law professor, and several others. By Wednesday, the count of White House personnel testing positive for the coronavirus reached 19, including four members of the White House press office, who deal with reporters every day and are generally not masked. A second White House event attended by Trump the following day is the apparent source of the infection’s spread through the military brass. Admiral Charles Ray, vice-commandant of the US Coast Guard, was among those present at a reception for the families of American soldiers killed in battle. He has now tested positive for the virus. All members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been quarantined because they attended a meeting with Ray at the Pentagon on October 2. These include the chairman, Gen. Mark Milley; the vice chairman, Gen. John Hyten; Army Chief of Staff James McConville; Chief of Naval Operations Michael Gilday; Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; Marine Corps Commandant David Berger; CyberCom Commander Paul Nakasone; Space Force chief John Raymond and Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard. Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy is also quarantined. A Pentagon spokesman was at pains to declare there had been “no change to the operational readiness or mission capability of the US Armed Forces,” and that “Senior military leaders are able to remain fully mission capable and perform their duties from an alternative work location.” Coronavirus is spreading through Capitol Hill as well, at least in part through Republican senators visiting the White House: three of them, Thom Tillis, Mike Lee and Ron Johnson, have now tested positive. The latest member of Congress to contract the virus is Representative Salud Carbajal, a California Democrat who was tested after he was exposed to the coronavirus through Senator Lee. A total of 13 other House members, five Democrats and eight Republicans, have tested positive, as well as two more Republican senators. According to the House Administration Committee, there are 123 employees or contractors of the legislative branch who have tested positive. This includes 46 employees of the Capitol Police, 42 employees of the Architect of the Capitol and 35 contractors working on the renovation of the Cannon House Office Building.
Trump Reveals Covid Infection Was More Severe Than White House Has Said - During a radio rally with conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, Trump said he was “not in great shape” when he checked into Walter Reed military hospital last Friday, despite the White House claiming at the time he had “mild symptoms.”"They said you could have been very bad,” Trump said of his medical team, though White House physician Sean Conley released a memo that day telling the public that Trump was “fatigued but in good spirits” and that his medications were “precautionary.”Trump claimed he “might not have recovered at all” without the experimental treatments he was given – once again pushing the widely debunked claims that drugs like remdesivir are a “cure” for the virus – and spoke about friends of his who have died from the disease.Trump’s latest comments are pertinent as he eyes a return to the campaign trail and his campaign demands an in-person debate as soon as Oct. 15 – the Centers for Disease Control say people with severe symptoms can remain contagious for up to 20 days. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has continued to test negative for the virus, has pushed for a virtual debate and scheduled a solo town hall for Oct. 15 after Trump refused to accept the Commission on Presidential Debates’ plan to make that debate virtual. “Trump went on to talk about friends who died of covid, suggesting things could have gone that way for him,” tweeted Politico reporter Ryan Lizza, who sarcastically exclaimed, “Glad we’re learning about this now on the Rush Limbaugh show!”
Trump and Socialized Medicine - Spencer England – In economics we have the concept of “revealed preference” that simply states that you do not pay attention to what an individual claims to prefer. Rather, you pay attention to what they actually do. President Trump just elected to go to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for treatment of his COVID-19 symptoms. He could have elected to go to any hospital in the country, but he choose to go to the most purely socialist medical center in the country, one owned by the government and all it’s employees are government employees. Just as the military is the purest example of socialism in the US, Walter Reed is the purest example of socialized medicine in the US. So Trump’s revealed preference is that he prefers socialized medicine to private medical care. Who knew that deep down he really is a socialist.
Trump coronavirus treatment: President had Regeneron and Gilead stock - President Donald Trump previously reported he earned capital gains from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Gilead Sciences Inc., the manufacturers of two of the medicines he's taken as part of his COVID-19 treatment plan. According to a 2017 financial disclosure form filed with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics in June 2017, Trump had a capital gain of $50,001 to $100,000 for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and $100,001 to $1 million for Gilead Sciences Inc. The form notes the information was of April 15, 2017. Trump’s subsequent disclosure forms, including his 2020 form signed July 31, did not list Regeneron or Gilead. Trump received a single 8-gram dose of Regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail as a precautionary measure, according to his physician Sean Conley. The antibody cocktail is in four late-stage clinical trials, and its safety and efficacy have not been fully evaluated by any regulatory authority, the company said on its webpage. As part of Operation Warp Speed, New York state-based Regeneron won a $450 million federal contract in July to manufacture and supply the company's antibody cocktail REGN-COV2. The New York Times reported Friday that Regeneron’s chief executive, Dr. Leonard S. Schleifer, a member of Trump’s golf club in Westchester County, New York, said Trump’s medical staff reached out to the company for permission to use the drug and the Food and Drug Administration cleared it. “When it’s the president of the United States, of course, that gets – obviously – gets our attention,” Schleifer told the Times. Regeneron stock rose $19.20 a share in after-hours trading. Trump also is taking Gilead’s remdesivir, which has been authorized for COVID-19 patients by the FDA under an emergency use declaration. Trials showed effectiveness under some circumstances.
U.S., AstraZeneca strike deal for COVID-19 antibody treatment touted by Trump (Reuters) - The U.S. government has awarded $486 million to AstraZeneca Plc to develop and secure supplies of up to 100,000 doses of COVID-19 antibody treatment, a similar class of drug that was used in treating President Donald Trump. The agreement, under the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, is for developing a monoclonal antibody cocktail that can prevent COVID-19, especially in high-risk population like those over 80 years old, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said. The treatment has come under the spotlight after Trump was treated with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ antibody drug last week. The president has also released a video on Twitter touting its benefits. In a call earlier on Friday, a top U.S. health official said the government was expecting to provide more than 1 million free doses of antibody treatments to COVID-19 patients, similar to the one that was administered to Trump. Regeneron and Eli Lilly have both applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorizations of their antibody treatments. AstraZeneca said it was planning to supply up to 100,000 doses starting toward the end of 2020 and that the U.S. government could acquire up to an additional one million doses in 2021 under a separate agreement. Regeneron signed a $450 million deal in July to sell Operation Warp Speed enough doses of its antibody treatment, REGN-COV2, to treat around 300,000 people. AstraZeneca plans to evaluate the treatment, AZD7442, which is a cocktail of two monoclonal antibodies, in two studies. One trial will evaluate the safety and efficacy of the experimental treatment to prevent infection for up to 12 months in about 5,000 participants, while the second will evaluate post-exposure preventative and pre-emptive treatment in roughly 1,100 participants.
How Far Will Repubs Go??? - This clip of Senator Tom Cotton was easy to install. Briefly and you can listen to the clip, Fox News host Maria Bartiromo states three Repub Senators are fighting COVID-19 infections. Senator Cotton starts off with thanking Maria for the question and then states “I am doing fine” as if someone asked how he was feeling. This Senator is on the same plane as Ron Johnson for intelligence and which we will address later. Listen to the clip and you will hear and see why (a grinning Cotton), why I am suggesting these people are on the lowest plane for intelligence.Herr Cotton suggested they can wheel Senators who are sick from Covid on to the Senate floor in order to vote. After all, Dems did such with an ailing 92 year old Senator Byrd who was not contagious. So why not Covid-contagious senators?Both Lee and Tillis were at the Rose Garden on September 26 when Associate Justice nominee Amy Barrett was introduced by President donald trump and where it is believe many were exposed to Covid. U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson announced Saturday he tested positive for COVID-19, the results of which came after attending a GOP fundraising event in Ozaukee County on Friday. After being tested, he decided to attend the fund raiser while he waited for the results because he did not have symptoms and the test was supposedly precautionary. Apparently, his chief of staff tested positive. Somehow, Johnson came into contact with his Chief of staff? “Quelle Surprise!” After being exposed to someone who tested positive, one quarantines themselves, something federal guidelines advise. Oh and Senator Ron Johnson had this to say also: “I’m not in favor of mask mandates, I think that’s up to individuals to be responsible. The jury is out. I think they’re helpful, but it’s certainly not a panacea, it’s not a cure-all.” “Key word here is think.” “I’m not sick, I have no symptoms. I certainly didn’t anticipate testing positive, so there was no reason to quarantine.” No one anticipate a positive result and you do not have symptoms in the beginning to be contagious. As a precaution, one should stay away from any Republican politicians. Johnson really sets the bar low for ignorance. Tom Cotton: COVID-infected Senators Will Be ‘Wheeled In’ , Crooks and Liars, David, October 2020
More than 1K alumni from Amy Coney Barrett's undergrad college sign letter of concern Over 1,500 alumni from U.S. Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett's alma mater signed a letter of concern over the conservative lawyer and judge's pending appointment to become the next court justice. Barrett graduated in 1994 with honors from Rhodes College in Memphis, Tenn., CBS News reported. Rhodes President Marjorie Hass lauded Barrett in a statement on Sept. 22 for her "professional distinction and achievement," after President Trump nominated her to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died last month from pancreatic cancer. Following Hass's statement, alumni Rob Marus and Katherine Morgan Breslin wrote a critical letter over Barrett's stances on abortion law, the LBGTQ community and the Affordable Care Act (ACA). "We are likewise firmly and passionately opposed to Rhodes administrators' attempts to embrace Amy Coney Barrett as an alumna of our beloved alma mater," the letter said. "We oppose this embrace because we believe both her record and the process that has produced her nomination are diametrically opposed to the values of truth, loyalty, and service that we learned at Rhodes." Barrett's nomination to replace Ginsburg, an abortion rights supporter and trailblazer for women's rights, brought praise from conservatives but raised concerns among liberals and Democrats. She said in 2016 if Roe v. Wade were overturned or weakened, its "core holding" that women have a right to abortion would not change. The letter also directly called attention to the ACA's fate, which is slated to be contested in a Supreme Court trial on Nov. 10 over whether some provisions of the act may remain law. Hass responded to the alumni letter, standing by her previous praise of Barrett, but adding, "I hope that your letter — as well as the support, dissent, and attention it has generated — serves as a spur for robust engagement with the political process."
McConnell: Plan is to confirm Trump's Supreme Court pick before election - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Tuesday night that he expects Republicans will confirm President Trump's Supreme Court nominee before the election. "That's the plan and there's nothing I can see that would keep that from happening," McConnell said during a Fox News interview when asked if Judge Amy Coney Barrett would be confirmed to the Supreme Court before Nov. 3. McConnell has repeatedly hinted that he would bring up Barrett's nomination for a vote before the election, including saying last week that he would take it up as soon as it comes out the Judiciary Committee. Under Graham's timeline, that would pave the way for a final vote on the Senate floor for the final week of October. But he's also previously been cagey about saying directly that he would hold a vote before the election, even as several of his members, the White House and strategists involved in the court fight have said they expect that to be the chamber's timeline. McConnell's decision to say the Senate will take up Barrett's nomination before the election comes as an outbreak of the coronavirus has injected fresh doubt into the GOP's aggressive timeline for confirming Trump's pick to succeed the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Three GOP senators—Thom Tillis (N.C), Mike Lee (Utah) and Ron Johnson (Wis.)—have tested positive for the coronavirus. An additional three GOP senators—Ben Sasse (Neb.), Ted Cruz (Texas) and James Lankford (Okla.)—have tested negative but are self-quarantining after being around their colleagues. Underscoring how the coronavirus could impact the party's SCOTUS plan, four of those six Republicans are on the Judiciary Committee. Republicans have a 12-10 majority on the panel, and are likely to need all of their members present for an Oct. 22 committee vote on Barrett's nomination. Under the panel's rules, to send a nomination to the floor, a majority of the committee has to be present. Democrats are not expected to help them meet the quorum requirement if a Republican senator is expected to be absent.
Trump’s New Healthcare Executive Order - - On September 24, 2020, D.J. Trump issued a health care executive order (EO) focusing on protecting people with preexisting conditions and eliminating surprise medical bills. The Executive Order itself will have little or no immediate effect on healthcare law. Instead of laying out a specific plan or action(s) to take, the EO is detailing the administration’s health policy priorities and general agency directives (such as “giving Americans more choice in healthcare”). The EO’s approach is consistent with the seven-item bulleted list released by the campaign in late August and reiterates the hopes of the constituency for affordable healthcare minus the detail. The “release” of this Executive Order and its purpose is to distract and redirect attention away from the nomination of Amy Barrett to SCOTUS and blunting the criticism of President Trump for:1) moving forward with his nomination so close to the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ignoring the precedent established by McConnell on nominations close to an election; and trump’s 2) promising and not delivering a health care plan way ahead of the 2020 election.It is a BS sleight – of – hand maneuver as an Executive order does not create law which is left to Congress and neither can it appropriate funds which is also left to Congress. It too ignores a precedent established by then Senator Jeff Sessions under the guidance of the GAO to block funding outside of already Congressional approved funding while Congressional Representatives Fred Upton and Jack Kingston inserted Section 217 in the CROMNIBUS bill to block the legal transfer of funds from other programs to the Risk Corridor Program. Effectively, both actions killed the Risk Corridor program which was a three year program of seeding insurance companies and Coops while they adjusted to their newly insured needs. The Risk Corridor Program is similar to Part D’s program to do such which is still in existence.
Pompeo Seeks 'Asian NATO' To Counter China In Talks With Japan, India & Australia - Amid Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's trip to Tokyo this week where he's meeting with representatives from Japan, India, and Australia, he and top State State Department officials are actually floating plans for a NATO-type anti-China alliance in Asia.Beijing sees this as 'shots fired across the bow' from within the heart of its sphere of influence, given these very nations are so reliant on China for trade.“As partners in this Quad, it is more critical now than ever that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption and coercion,” Pompeo said Tuesday referring to China's ruling communists. “We see it in the South and East China Seas, the Mekong, the Himalayas, the Taiwan Strait.” He later added while speaking to Japan’s Nikkei newspaper:“Once we’ve institutionalized what we’re doing - the four of us together - we can begin to build out a true security framework,” Pompeo told the Nikkei, suggesting other countries could be added to that “fabric” at “the appropriate time.”The US has already over the past months been shoring up international support for such an "Asian NATO" as it's being provocatively called:China’s growing military prowess and increasingly aggressive foreign policy have revived talk among U.S. and European officials of creating an “Asian NATO” of regional powers to contain communist Beijing’s expansionist ambitions.Past efforts for an East Asian security alliance, such as the post-World War II Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) to guard against Cold War-era communism, failed to gain lasting traction.But such an initiative will no doubt prove much easier said than done, given last year Australia's number one trade partner where it exported the majority of its goods was China.Also the number two destination for Japanese exports is China, while China is also India's third top customer, according to IMF figures.
Military Bases on the Moon: U.S. Plans to Weaponize the Earth’s Satellite - In July, Dmitry Rogozin, Director General of Roscosmos, cited the U.S. “retreat from principles of cooperation and mutual support” to justify Russia’s refusal to join the latest U.S. space initiative: to build lunar bases. Rogozin was likely referring to the U.S. refusal to renew the Intermediate-range Forces Treaty and its intention to back out of the Open Skies Treaty. Russia responded by declaring that Venus is a “Russian planet.” The U.S. continues to reject Sino-Russian efforts to strengthen the Outer Space Treaty 1967, to prohibit the weaponization of space. Doing so would interfere with U.S. plans for “full spectrum dominance.” Last week on 22 September, the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) signed a memorandum with the Department of Defense (DOD). The signers were NASA’s administrator, Jim Bridenstine, and the U.S. Space Force Chief of Operations General, John Raymond. The signing of the memo took place in the broader context of NASA’s Artemis program. In December 2017, Donald Trump signed the Presidential Memorandum on Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program. It was an update of Obama’s space policy, adding that the U.S. will: “Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities.” NASA’s Artemis program oversees the U.S. mission to exploit the moon, including the construction of the Artemis Base Camp at the lunar South Pole, probably near the Shackleton Crater. This will serve as a forerunner to building a base on Mars. It “builds on a half-century of experience and preparation to establish a robust human-robotic presence on and around the Moon,” says NASA. Artemis includes a Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft. These operations will enable “U.S. commercial companies and international partners to further contribute to the exploration and development of the Moon.” International partners, at present, include Canada, Japan, and the EU. Though, as we shall see, weaponization and competition remain serious threats to international peace and human survival. Other elements of the programinclude a Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), which Artemis hopes to finalize by 2023. The international efforts include deploying “science payloads” and CubeSats, as well as refueling the Gateway: an orbiting lunar outpost.
Watchdog finds top DOJ officials were 'driving force' behind Trump's child separation policy: NYT - Top officials at the Justice Department were the chief drivers of President Trump's immigration policy mandating the separation of those suspected of crossing the border illegally from their children, according to notes and a watchdog investigation reported by The New York Times. Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein were the two officials primarily pushing attorneys to prosecute immigrants suspected of illegal crossings, and pushed for them to be separated from children as young as infants, according to a report from Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz that was obtained by the Times. “We need to take away children,” Sessions told prosecutors on one call, according to their shorthand notes, adding: “If [immigrants] care about kids, don’t bring them in. [We] [w]on’t give amnesty to people with kids.”Rosenstein “instructed that, per the A.G.’s policy, we should NOT be categorically declining immigration prosecutions of adults in family units because of the age of a child," added John Bash, an outgoing U.S. attorney in western Texas. Horowitz's report also accuses the former officials of pushing up the agency's case numbers at the expense of undocumented immigrant families. “The department’s single-minded focus on increasing prosecutions came at the expense of careful and effective implementation of the policy, especially with regard to prosecution of family-unit adults and the resulting child separations,” Horowitz wrote. The news of Sessions and Rosenstein's involvement come as the two, who were since fired and resigned from the agency, respectively, comes as the Justice Department has largely deflected criticism on the policy to the Department of Homeland Security, which has also defended the program.
Contractors, scrap dealers selling border fence steel in Arizona and Mexico - - The steel posts, some filled with concrete, are a familiar sight to anyone who has walked along Arizona's border with Mexico. They are used to build border fencing. But on the dusty streets of Sonoyta, Sonora, these posts are not on the border anymore - they are for sale in scrap yards. How the stacks of steel posts, which were originally paid for with US tax dollars, ended up on the market in Mexico is now the subject of an inquiry by US Customs and Border Protection into the actions of the contractors who are erecting the latest stretches of fencing along the US border with Mexico. CBP was alerted to the situation by CBS 5 Investigates. In late August, a CBS 5 Investigates producer spotted an ad in an internet forum. “Steel For Sale Arizona,” read the title. “We have an amazing amount of steel left over from the border (sp) wall Trump built. Government-issued steel for sale. They are basically giving it away,” read the text. During a text exchange, the seller stated that the posts were going for $50 each, or $800 for a truckload. The seller stated that the steel came from the border wall project near Naco, Arizona. Southwest Valley Constructors is the company that won the contract to erect the border fence near Naco. The company is also replacing the old vehicle barrier and border fence near Lukeville. It is that construction zone that appears to be the source of the steel posts found in Sonoyta. “There were DHS and Army Corps of Engineers officials, standing there watching their contractors with a bulldozer and front-end loaders push the scrap metal onto the Mexican side. And Mexican scrap metal scavengers were coming right up to the border,” said Gary Nabhan, who is a desert ecologist, and says he witnessed what is happening on the border. “The Mexican scrap metal collectors were coming right up to the border with pickup trucks and trailers and taking it away with the complicit acceptance of Homeland Security and Army Corps of Engineers officials,” said Nabhan.There would be some real legal problems with that arrangement. First, the stacks of metal posts appear to have been pushed about 15 feet into Mexico. It would be illegal for Americans to dump debris across the border. It is also illegal to cross into Mexico and back into the United States outside of an official port of entry without prior authorization.Finally, there are questions about whether the contractors are allowed to simply give away the steel. “Normally you would rely on your inspector general or someone else to go in and review something like this to determine whether the contractor is in compliance with the contract and various state and federal laws,”
Leaked FBI report warns of far-right “Boogaloo” violence in advance of election - A leaked September 29 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) intelligence report prepared by the Dallas, Texas, field office warns that leading up to the November election, “boogaloo adherents” and “militia violent extremists” are increasing “violent and criminal activity” in the Dallas area. The assessment was made the same day President Donald Trump, in the first presidential debate with his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, refused to condemn white supremacists and militia groups, instead instructing the fascistic street gang the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.” The intelligence document, leaked to the Nation ’s national security reporter Ken Klippenstein, confirms that the federal government continues to downplay the threat violent far-right groups pose to the general population. It also demonstrates that homicidal terrorist violence overwhelmingly emanates not from amorphous “Antifa” or “insurrectionary anarchist” groups, as the New York Times recently argued, but from far-right anti-communist and racist groups. These include the Proud Boys, “Boogaloo” and “back the blue” militia groups such as the Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters (III). A database published in July of this year by researchers at the Washington, DC think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that in the last 25 years there have been zero people killed in anti-fascist attacks. Conversely, the researchers linked 329 victims to right-wing violence since 1994. Sourcing for the FBI report was based on social media activity, news reports, government surveillance of text communications and information provided by two well-placed “FBI human sources.” One of these, it appears, has been working with the agency for three years. The report noted that in June 2020, one of the FBI sources had “direct access” to “self-identified boogaloo adherents” who had been seen in downtown Dallas at multiple protests. One of these adherents told the source they would “hunt anti-fascist anarchists and kill any Dallas looters.” Approximately four months later, days before he was assassinated by US Marshals and local police, Michael Reinoehl expressed his fear that right-wing groups and the police were “hunting me.” “There’s nightly posts of the hunt and where they’re going to be hunting,” he told an interviewer. “They made a post saying the deer are going to feel lucky this year because it’s open season on Michael right now.”
Thirteen arrested in far-advanced pro-Trump conspiracy to murder Michigan’s governor and overthrow the state government - The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Michigan State Police have arrested more than a dozen men across the state in connection with well-developed plans to kidnap and kill Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, seize power in Lansing and install a pro-Trump regime. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel announced the raids and search warrants at a 1 p.m. Thursday press conference. She listed more than a dozen towns and cities where raids were carried out overnight, including Sterling Heights, Belleville, Cadillac, Canton, Charlotte, Clarkston, Grand Rapids, Hartland, Luther, Munith, Orion Township, Ovid, Shelby Township and Waterford Township. Both Nessel and Governor Whitmer put the political blame for the right-wing terrorist conspiracy on President Trump and his open alignment with ultra-right and white supremacist groups. Initial statements as well as the indictment filed by the attorney general indicate that the Michigan conspiracy is just one element of a historically-unprecedented plot inspired and very possibly directed by a sitting president to violently overthrow the Constitution and establish a dictatorship. “We have a president who seems to condone these actions,” Nessel told MSNBC, citing his “tweets to ‘liberate Michigan,’” which followed armed right-wing protests at the state Capitol. She argued that Trump’s statements were “not a dog whistle, but a command to action.” Six men face federal charges of terrorism and conspiracy: Brandon Caserta, Adam Fox, Kaleb Franks, Ty Garbin, and Daniel Harris, all of Michigan, and Barry Croft of Delaware. Seven more, all of Michigan, and all linked to the militia group Wolverine Watchmen, face felony state charges of terrorism, material support to terrorism, gang membership, and possession of firearms during the commission of a felony: According to the press conference and the charging document, the FBI initially learned of discussions about the violent overthrow of the state government over social media. Federal agents recruited at least two informants within the group and sent in several undercover agents. Both the informants and the agents made recordings of conversations and entire meetings, which will comprise much of the evidence in any future trial. The plans to kidnap and kill Whitmer were carefully prepared. The charged individuals allegedly conducted surveillance of Whitmer’s vacation home on two occasions in late August and early September, having concluded that this location offered the best opportunity to seize her. They prepared maps showing the location of nearby police stations and state police barracks and calculated how long it would take police to respond to an emergency.
Militia group plan to kidnap Whitmer was part of attempt to start civil war: officials - The militia group whose members planned to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) was attempting to instigate a civil war through attacks on the state Capitol building and targeting police officers, officials said Thursday. Members of the group, identified by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel as the Wolverine Watchmen, are accused of crimes such as conducting surveillance outside of Whitmer’s vacation home, using code language and encrypted messages and putting a bomb under a bridge to distract police. In total, 13 members were charged with felony crimes, including the six who were charged for the governor kidnapping plot, the Detroit Free Press reported. Nessel described the members as “extremists” who were trying to gain members “by seizing on a moment of civil unrest" in the U.S. “There has been a disturbing increase in anti-government rhetoric and the re-emergence of groups that embrace extremist ideologies,” Nessel said at a press conference. "This is more than just political disagreement or passionate advocacy, some of these groups’ mission is simply to create chaos and inflict harm upon others.” Nessel’s announcement of charges against the seven additional members came after the FBI filed an affidavit on Thursday saying it stopped an attempt to abduct Whitmer in an alleged terror plot. The six involved with the plans to kidnap Whitmer were charged with conspiracy to commit kidnapping. The seven other defendants face charges of providing material support for terrorists acts and felony firearm possession. Nessel said these other Wolverine Watchmen members allegedly requested other members find the home addresses of police officers, “made threats of violence to instigate a civil war leading to societal collapse,” and helped in planning an attack on the state Capitol building and schemes to kidnap government officials, including Whitmer.Federal court documents indicate that the militia intended to complete their plans before the November election. But the investigation, which included paid undercover informants and 200 state and federal law enforcement officials conducting search warrants in more than a dozen cities, halted the plan.
Pandemic Erects Barriers for Prized Bloc of Voters in Nursing Homes, Senior Facilities - The convergence of the coronavirus pandemic and election season has complicated this year’s voting for residents of nursing homes, assisted living facilities and other long-term care centers. Many seniors who need help to get or fill out their ballots may be stymied by shifting rules about family visits. Voting procedures — whether in person or by mail — are under increased scrutiny, adding to the confusion. Facilities that used to host voting precincts likely won’t do so this year because of concerns about the spread of COVID-19.“We’re basically not allowed to go out into the public right now, we’re more vulnerable, and our immune systems are compromised anyway,” said Janice Phillips, a 14-year resident of Village Square Healthcare Center, a skilled nursing facility in San Marcos, California. “We’re basically locked in.”Phillips, 75, who has rheumatoid arthritis, has voted by absentee ballot for years without problems. This year she is encouraging her fellow residents to vote by mail as well. She works with the facility’s activities staff, going resident by resident, to make sure folks are registered. As president of the resident council, Phillips has also raised the issue at community meetings.Older Americans are a consistent voting bloc courted by both parties.According to AARP, 71% of Americans 65 and older voted in the 2016 presidential election, compared with 46% of people 18-29. “For many older adults, it’s a point of pride for them that they’ve voted in every election since they were 18,” said Leza Coleman, the executive director of California’s Long-Term Care Ombudsman Association.But hardly anyone has been allowed inside skilled nursing facilities since the start of the pandemic, except for staff members and the occasional state health official, or family members in certain circumstances. In California and beyond, facilities are beginning to open up in counties with low transmission rates, since federal rules changed in September to allow for more lenient visiting policies. At the same time, outbreaks continue to plague some senior facilities, despite improved testing of staff and other safety measures. On Wednesday, Santa Cruz County health officials reported a major outbreak at the Watsonville Post-Acute Center, which has infected 46 residents, killing nine of them, and infecting 15 staff members.
Trump Says He Won’t Participate in Virtual Presidential Debate – WSJ - Plans for President Trump and Joe Biden to meet for two more debates this month were in question after the president refused to participate in a virtual debate next week, leading the Democratic nominee’s campaign to schedule a town hall in Philadelphia for the same day. The debate schedule was up in the air after the Commission on Presidential Debates said Thursday it was changing the format of a planned Oct. 15 debate so that the two candidates would participate from remote locations. The president and a growing number of people in the White House recently tested positive for the coronavirus. The first presidential debate and Wednesday night’s vice-presidential event were held in person but included social-distancing measures crafted in consultation with the Cleveland Clinic. “I’m not going to waste my time on a virtual debate,” Mr. Trump said on Fox Business on Thursday morning. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, who also tested positive for coronavirus in recent days, said the decision to make the Oct. 15 debate—which was planned as an in-person town hall—a virtual event was “pathetic.” He said Mr. Trump wouldn’t be positive for the coronavirus by then and that the campaign would hold a rally instead. Mr. Stepien issued another statement later Thursday asking for the town-hall debate to be pushed back a week and for a third presidential debate to be scheduled on Oct. 29.
Trump campaign agrees on moving second debate back by a week -- President Trump's campaign manager issued a new statement today announcing they agree to a suggestion by Joe Biden's campaign to delay the second debate by a week so it can be in person."The [Commission on Presidential Debates] and the media cannot hide Joe Biden forever. Americans deserve to hear directly from both presidential candidates on these dates, October 22 and 29," Bill Stepien said in a statement. Earlier today, Trump said that he will not participate in the second presidential debate with Biden after the Commission on Presidential Debates said the event will be held virtually in the wake of the President's positive coronavirus diagnosis."I am not going to do a virtual debate," Trump said on Fox Business. "I am not going to waste my time on a virtual debate."
Bob Dole claims no Republicans on debate commission support Trump - Former GOP Sen. Bob Dole (Kan.) claimed on Twitter on Friday that none of the Republicans on the Commission on Presidential Debates support President Trump. “The Commission on Presidential Debates is supposedly bipartisan w/ an equal number of Rs and Ds. I know all of the Republicans and most are friends of mine,” Dole tweeted, saying he was concerned that none of them supported Trump. “A biased Debate Commission is unfair.” Dole’s tweet comes as the president and his allies have repeatedly accused the commission, which describes itself as nonpartisan, of trying to assist Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. The claims arise as the commission has sought to make several changes to the upcoming presidential debates. Members of the commission's board of directors include former GOP Sens. John Danforth (Mo.) and Olympia Snowe (Maine). All of the living former presidents serve as honorary co-chairs.Most recently, Trump said Thursday that the commission's decision to make the Oct. 15 presidential debate a virtual event was a way to protect Biden. The decision was made amidst Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, who also tested positive for COVID-19, also ripped the decision Thursday, calling it a “pathetic” effort to “rush to Joe Biden’s defense.” The Trump campaign previously made these claims when the commission was looking into changes to impose more order after Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace at the first debate. They accused the commission of considering Biden in these adjustments.
Mike Pompeo Tells Fox News He Has Hillary Clinton's Emails, Will Release Them Before Election Day - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News that he has access to Hillary Clinton's emails and that he is planning to release them "so the American people can see it" ahead of Election Day."We got the emails. We're getting them out. We're going to get all this information out so the American people can see it," he said on Friday.While Pompeo didn't specify which emails he was referring to, Clinton has drawn controversy in the past for using a private email server for official public communications during her tenure as Secretary of State."You'll remember there was classified information on a private server—should have never been there. Hillary Clinton should never have done that. It was unacceptable behavior. It's not the kind of thing that leaders do. They don't put that kind of information out," Pompeo said.
Biden-Harris campaign demands increased censorship by Facebook before 2020 election - The campaign of Democratic Party presidential and vice-presidential candidates Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris published an open letter on Monday demanding that Facebook increase political censorship on its platform before the general election on November 3. In the three-page letter from campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, addressed to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the Biden-Harris camp states that the social media platform is “the nation’s foremost propagator of disinformation about the voting process,” and demands that posts from the Trump campaign be removed. Dillon writes that Facebook has failed to live up to its September 3 commitment to fulfill its “responsibility to protect our democracy” and “fight misinformation.” Instead, she says, Facebook has allowed the Trump campaign “to use your platform to spread falsehoods about mail voting.” She adds that “rather than seeing progress, we have seen regression.” Dillon gives specific examples of Trump campaign content that she claims should have been removed by Facebook. In one instance, Dillon writes, Donald J. Trump, Jr. posted a video on September 21 “claiming that those who oppose his father have a ‘plan to add millions of fraudulent ballots that can cancel your vote and overturn the election.’ He then implores viewers not to let this happen.” According to Dillon, he then urges “every able bodied man and woman to join an army for Trump’s election security.” Many corporate news organizations, along with the Biden-Harris campaign, pointed out to Facebook that Trump Jr.’s post violated the social media platform’s policy against misinformation about the elections. Dillon writes, “Your response was that the video yielded ‘extensive discussions,’ which reached the conclusion that it was consistent with your policies.” In the end, Facebook placed a banner at the bottom of the post that says, “Voting by mail has a long history of trustworthiness in the US and the same is predicted this year.” In response, Dillon writes, “No company that considers itself a force for good in democracy, and that purports to take voter suppression seriously, would allow this dangerous claptrap to be spread to millions of people. Removing this video should have been the easiest of easy calls under your policies, yet it remains up today.” Dillon describes the president’s repeated use of Facebook to encourage supporters who have voted by mail “to show up at their polling place and demand to vote again unless it is demonstrated that their vote has been counted.” Claiming that these posts violate Facebook’s prohibition of “misrepresentations about voting logistics, methods, or requirements,” Dillon writes that “the solution should have been simple: remove Mr. Trump’s posts, which violate your policies.”
Facebook's nudity-spotting AI mistook a photo of some onions for 'sexually suggestive' content - Facebook's AI struggles to tell the difference between sexual pictures of the human body and globular vegetables. A garden center in Newfoundland, Canada on Monday received a notice from Facebook about an ad it had uploaded for Walla Walla onion seeds that contained a photo of some onions. Facebook's notice said the ad broke its rules on "products with overtly sexual positioning," clarifying: "listings may not position products or services in a sexually suggestive manner." Facebook on Wednesday told Canada's CBC News the ad had been reinstated after review. The mistake had been made by its AI moderation tech, which automatically takes down content it thinks contains nudity, it said.
Hunter Biden Longtime Biz Partner And Burisma Board-Buddy Going To Prison After Obama Judge Reversed -A federal appeals court has reinstated a fraud conviction of Hunter Biden's longtime business partner, Devon Archer, reversing a decision by an Obama-appointed judge (and wife of Mueller special counsel lawyer) to vacate Archer's conviction and grant him a new trial.Archer and several of his business partners were indicted on March 26, 2018 in a $60 million bond scheme which defrauded Native Americans. Hunter was not implicated in the fraud, however Archer and the other partners repeatedly name-dropped the former Vice President's son. Following a trial which lasted nearly one-month, Archer was found guilty of conspiracy to commit securities fraud and securities fraud. After requesting that the district court set aside the jury's verdict, Judge Ronnie Abrams - the wife of Mueller special counsel attorney Greg Andres (who himself was a Deputy Assistant AG in the Obama DOJ, according to RedState) - granted Archer's wish. What's more, Abrams was Hunter Biden's classmate at Yale Law school. Not so fast Judge Ronnie... In a unanimous opinion, a three-judge panel said that Abrams made a mistake by prioritizing her own theory above that of the jury's, and that her assessment undercut the significance of the proof in its totality. Archer was Yale roommates with John Kerry's stepson Chris Heinz - the two of whom opened investment firm Rosemont Capital with Hunter. Rosemont Capital is the parent company of Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC - the entity which receive the Burisma payments and in turn aid Biden.It was through Archer's trial that we learned large sums of Chinese and Ukrainian money was flowing into accounts owned by Archer and Hunter Biden, specifically a Morgan Stanley account for Rosemont Seneca Bohai, LLC - which Ukrainian gas giant Burisma wired $166,666.66 in two identical payments in 2014 and 2015, according to Just The News.
New Accuser Says Ghislaine Maxwell Gagged, Restrained And Raped Her - As Ghislaine Maxwell awaits her day in court, new accusers continue to come forward to share their stories about Maxwell’s involvement in Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes. Maxwell’s defense attorneys have previously claimed that she was not involved in Epstein’s sex trafficking and pedophilia network, despite being closely connected with him and his victims for any years. During Maxwell’s bail hearing, her attorneys argued that she is “not Jeffrey Epstein” and insisted that she was being treated unfairly during her incarceration because of how Epstein died and the crimes that he was accused of. Maxwell has maintained that she was not affiliated with Epstein’s crimes, but his victims tell a different story and the evidence against her continues to grow. A new accuser has come forward this week who claims that she was viciously attacked and raped by Maxwell when she was 21-years-old and living in New York. The victim, who has been using the name “Samantha” in her communications with the media, says that she was often paid to give Epstein massages and recruit other younger girls for him. She was instructed to find girls as young as possible, and in one case, she lied to Epstein and Maxwell about the girl’s age, telling them that a 19-year-old girl was really 16. When Epstein and Maxwell found out that they were lied to about the girl’s age, they became angry with Samantha. Shortly after the encounter, she was called to Epstein’s Manhattan mansion, where Maxwell attacked her. Maxwell gagged and restrained Samantha before raping her, and then later called Epstein in from another room to join in. “The next thing I knew she had a ball gag in my mouth, my hands around my back and she was raping me with a sex toy. She had taken my clothes off. It all happened so fast, I was stunned. She was using the sex toy on me and on herself then she called in Epstein and he joined in,” she said.
Credit Suisse Apologizes For Hiring Dancing Black Man Dressed As Janitor At Chairman's Birthday - When Credit Suisse chairman Urs Rohner held a party at a Zurich restaurant to celebrate his 60th birthday last year, he could have had any kind of entertainment he wanted.Apparently, out of all of his options, he somehow wound up choosing to have a black performer, dressed as a janitor, come onstage and dance to music while pretending to sweep the floor. While this may have somewhat fit the motif of the party, which had a 1970's Studio 54 theme according to Bloomberg, it was enough to cause the company's former CEO, Tidjane Thiam to leave the room. We also can't honestly think that Rohner would have known a year later, the entire country would be obsessively focused on the issue of race and identity politics. Having said that, it's still not a great look for Rohner, or the bank.
Citi hit with pair of enforcement actions, fined $400M— Bank regulators formally ordered Citigroup to improve its risk management and internal controls following years of concerns that the megabank has let too many errors slip through the cracks. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Wednesday announced a $400 million fine against the company's primary banking subsidiary and said it will require Citi to seek the agency's nonobjection before making new acquisitions. In an accompanying enforcement action, the Federal Reserve said it will require the bank to conduct a “gap analysis” of its risk management framework and internal controls system to determine what enhancements need to be made. The actions follow a Fed consent order against Citi in 2013, which identified deficiencies in the bank’s anti-money-laundering compliance program, and a separate consent order the Fed issued against Citi in 2015 related to its compliance and control infrastructure. Those deficiencies have not yet been “adequately remediated,” the Fed said in Wednesday’s order. More recently, Citi has been scrutinized over an accidental $900 million payment it made to lenders of the cosmetics company Revlon that came to light in August. Citi is currently locked in a legal battle in an attempt to recover that money. As the mistaken payment raised further questions about Citi’s internal controls, CEO Michael Corbat last month abruptly announced his retirement, which will take effect in February. Jane Fraser, Citi's president and CEO of the global consumer bank, will succeed him and become the first woman to lead a major U.S. bank. A formal crackdown by the regulators was widely expected following a report in The Wall Street Journal saying the Fed and the OCC were preparing an enforcement action. Under the Fed's order, Citi will also have to submit a plan to bolster its data quality management program and compliance risk management program, and it will need to submit a plan within 120 days describing what actions the company's board of directors will take to hold senior management accountable for improvements. The OCC will also require Citi “to take broad and comprehensive corrective actions to improve risk management, data governance and internal controls,” and will also retain the authority to impose additional restrictions and require changes in senior management or on the board, the agency said in a press release.
Citigroup Is Slapped with a $400 Million Fine for Doing Something So Bad It Can’t Be Spoken Out Loud - Pam Martens - Yesterday, when all eyes were on the vice-presidential debate last night, the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced consent decrees with Citigroup, the third largest bank in the country. The OCC imposed a $400 million fine on Citigroup’s federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank, and stated in its Consent Order that it had “identified unsafe or unsound practices with respect to the Bank’s internal controls, including, among other things, an absence of clearly defined roles and responsibilities and noncompliance with multiple laws and regulations.”“Noncompliance with multiple laws and regulations” means the bank has broken“multiple laws and regulations.” But, apparently, the laws it broke, how it broke them, and who benefited and by how much is just too explosive a story to see the light of day. The Consent Orders from both the OCC and Federal Reserve failed to specify exactly what crimes Citigroup had committed and instead used vague generalities such as “unsafe or unsound practices.”The Federal Reserve’s Consent Order did include two deficiencies that jumped off the page: “capital planning” and “liquidity risk management.” Problems with capital and liquidity are not something one wants to read about Citigroup in 2020 because it is the bank that became insolvent and received the largest taxpayer bailout in global banking history during the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis.The bank has obviously done something very bad because the OCC has put it on a very tight leash – which is done only in extreme circumstances. The OCC’s order requires that “With the exception of ordinary course transactions, such as hedging, market making, and securitization transactions…the Bank shall not complete any new portfolio or business acquisitions until it has received prior written determination of no supervisory objection to the review process from the Deputy Comptroller.” That means that Citibank can’t open new retail bank branches, acquire other banks, or increase its already massive derivatives book (other than hedging) without the express consent of the OCC. Equally concerning, the Federal Reserve’s Consent Order orders Citigroup (the bank holding company that owns Citibank, the federally-insured bank) to comply with 12 CFR 225.4(a). That statue reads in part:
- “(2) Whenever the Board believes an activity of a bank holding company or control of a nonbank subsidiary (other than a nonbank subsidiary of a bank) constitutes a serious risk to the financial safety, soundness, or stability of a subsidiary bank of the bank holding company and is inconsistent with sound banking principles or the purposes of the BHC [Bank Holding Company] Act or the Financial Institutions Supervisory Act of 1966, as amended (12 U.S.C. 1818(b) et seq.), the Board may require the bank holding company to terminate the activity or to terminate control of the subsidiary, as provided in section 5(e) of the BHC Act.
- “(1) Filing notice. Except as provided in paragraph (b)(6) of this section, a bank holding company shall give the Board prior written notice before purchasing or redeeming its equity securities if the gross consideration for the purchase or redemption, when aggregated with the net consideration paid by the company for all such purchases or redemptions during the preceding 12 months, is equal to 10 percent or more of the company’s consolidated net worth. For the purposes of this section, ‘net consideration’ is the gross consideration paid by the company for all of its equity securities purchased or redeemed during the period minus the gross consideration received for all of its equity securities sold during the period.”
Has Citigroup done something improper regarding the tens of billions of dollars it has spent buying back its own stock? Until March 31, 2015, Citigroup was spending hundreds of millions of dollars a quarter to buy back its stock. But beginning with the quarter ending June 30, 2015, it started to spend billions of dollars a quarter. And, as we headlined on July 24, Citigroup Has Been Paying Out More than It Earned for Years; Now It Has $102.5 Billion in Debt Maturing within Three Years.
As SEC Attempts to Provide Greater Darkness to Trading Firms, Maxine Waters Fights Back - Pam Martens --Is the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, a watchdog or a lapdog? If you judge him by his actions since taking office on May 4, 2017, it looks like the latter. That was easily predictable given that Clayton had represented 8 of the 10 largest Wall Street banks in the three years prior to taking his seat as Chair of the SEC. Clayton is also the man who is now attempting to elevate his role to that of the top criminal prosecutor in Wall Street’s home turf of Manhattan, by knocking Geoffrey Berman out of the job. That office is the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York where there are pending investigations related to both Donald Trump as well as Clayton’s former clients, the big banks on Wall Street. One person in Congress who has Clayton in her ongoing radar is Congresswoman Maxine Waters, the Chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee. Waters has sent at least four warning letters to Clayton this year, effectively telling him to knock off his sneaky maneuvers that benefit Wall Street while failing the American people. The most recent letter came last Friday when Waters warned Clayton that his latest attempted deregulatory move would “suppress shareholder rights, impair shareholder engagement, reduce capital market transparency and decrease investor protection, overall.”The proposed rule change would impact filings with the SEC known as Form 13-F and 13-f-1 which require institutional investment managers to report their holdings in U.S. stocks if they reach $100 million or more. Quietly, while the public’s attention is diverted by the pandemic, the SEC is proposing to raise the $100 million threshold by 35 times to $3.5billion. That would allow dozens of hedge funds and foreign actors to slip under the radar. In her letter, Waters quoted from one public comment letter to the proposed rule change that read: “Withholding information concerning trading of individuals with a high net worth or companies, hedge fund managers etc. allows for unfair advantage in the market. It should be transparent as much as possible. If you change the 100 million cap. rule, you will be going against your own public support of transparency.”
5 ransomware trends that should alarm credit unions, banks - Ransomware attacks have been accelerating during the pandemic, as cybercriminals take advantage of the security vulnerabilities and disruption caused by the massive movement toward working from home and they find ransomware increasingly profitable. According to a report published Tuesday by the security company Arctic Wolf, the banking sector saw a 520% increase in phishing and ransomware attacks between March and June of this year. Arctic Wolf has 250 bank and credit union customers. In April and May, there was a rash of ransomware attacks on banking technology vendors like Finastra, Diebold and Cognizant. Though they’re targeted with ransomware all the time, U.S. financial institutions have mostly escaped being paralyzed by ransomware so far because they have strong controls in place. “But if the trend continues toward bigger and bigger companies being hit, it’s only a matter of time before a bank is taken down,” said Callow.There are at least six reasons why ransomware attacks are on the rise and are posing challenges for banks and credit unions, and the consumers they serve.
- Hackers are taking advantage of confusion caused by COVID-19 - “Attackers are always looking for soft targets and they follow the news to figure out how to do that,” said Mark Manglicmot, vice president security services at Arctic Wolf, which is based in Sunnyvale, Calif. “The COVID-19 pandemic just released a bunch of ideas for attackers to go after and they crafted their phishing emails and their lures accordingly.”The sudden provision of government relief, such as the Paycheck Protection Program through which lenders made loans to small businesses, provided one idea.“Banks and credit unions that were small all of a sudden had to become very large overnight, and they didn't have the cybersecurity controls or monitoring in place that they needed,” Manglicmot said. “And so they were a lot more susceptible to COVID-19-specific lures.”
- Ransomware has become cybercriminals’ preferred attack method -“Ransomware has been escalating at a pretty healthy clip over the last couple of years. Certainly that was accelerated with COVID,” said Adam Meyers, senior vice president of intelligence at CrowdStrike, the incident response company (also based in Sunnyvale) that became famous when it helped the Democratic National Committee investigate a data breach conducted by Russian hackers in 2016.Many criminal groups that once targeted bank customers with malware to steal banking credentials have moved towards ransomware, which has become their dominant revenue generator, Meyers said.
- FIs’ large customers are being targeted with ransomware. Cybercriminals are currently focused on what Meyers calls “big game hunting.”“They are getting into large enterprises and moving laterally, escalating privileges, and then ultimately deploying a crypter, which allows them to encrypt the victim’s files and then demand a ransom payment,” Meyers said.These attacks are primarily targeting organizations that have to be up and running for some reason, that don’t have the most effective security programs and that are therefore most vulnerable, he said. Manufacturing, healthcare, state and local governments and school districts are all examples.
- Ransomware attacks are doubling as data breachesIn one out of four cases, hackers are not just locking up servers and demanding ransom, they are also exfiltrating some of the data in those servers, such as customer data, and posting it on the dark web, according to Callow.Recently customer data from a few community banks has been posted on the dark web, indicating a ransomware-based data leakage. The banks did not respond to phone calls or emails about this. The data exfiltration trend means that when banks are hit with ransomware, in addition to figuring out how to unencrypt their data and regain control of their systems, they need to know that their customers’ data may be posted on the internet. Then they will be legally required to notify customers of the fact that their data has been breached.
- Attacks are becoming more profitable, as victims and ransom demands get largerIn 2018, the average ransom demand was $5,000 and the average victim was a small business, such as a corner store, according to Callow. In 2020, the average ransom demand is somewhere between $150,000 and $250,000, multimillion dollar demands are the norm, and victims are large, multinational companies like insurers and mortgage brokers, he said.In July, a Russian ransomware gang member offered a Tesla employee a $1 million bribe to introduce malware into Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory computer networks. The employee turned the criminal in to the FBI. “How do you protect against something like that?” Callow said. “Tesla got lucky. Every organization has disgruntled employees..”
- Financial firms have been freshly warned against facilitating ransomware payments. The Treasury Department gave a stern reminder to banks and credit unions last week that they’d better not facilitate ransomware payments.“Companies that facilitate ransomware payments to cyber actors on behalf of victims, including financial institutions, cyberinsurance firms, and companies involved in digital forensics and incident response, not only encourage future ransomware payment demands but also may risk violating OFAC regulations,” the Treasury said, referring to the Office of Foreign Assets Control.The warning may have been triggered by the Garmin case, in which the wearables manufacturer paid $10 million in ransom to the Evil Corp. cybercriminal gang.
Central banks want digital currencies that don’t nudge out cash - Central banks have identified key criteria for issuing their own digital currencies in a report from the Bank of International Settlements. Digital money will have to coexist with cash and other forms of tender, do no harm to monetary and financial stability, and be very cheap or free to use. There should also be “an appropriate role for the private sector,” according to a report by the BIS, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and other institutions published on Friday. “A design that delivers these features can promote more resilient, efficient, inclusive and innovative payments,” said working group co-chair Benoit Coeure, who leads the BIS’s Innovation Hub, set up last year to help officials embrace financial technology. The paper, which provides “a springboard for further development,” comes less than a week after the ECB announced it would start public consultation and experimentation on digital currencies, a major step toward possibly creating a digital euro. Just a few years ago, crypto-assets based on similar technology elicited condemnation from policymakers, with Coeure terming bitcoin “the evil spawn of the financial crisis.” But central banks are increasingly paying attention to and experimenting in the field after Facebook proposed creating its own electronic means of payment, Libra. A survey of 66 central banks by the Basel-based BIS published early this year found that some 80% were engaged in the matter, up from 70% the year before. The proportion saying they were likely to issue a digital currency to the public in the next one to three years doubled to 10%, it found.
Banks are permitted to hold crypto assets. Will they? - Banks regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency were given the go-ahead by regulators in July to hold customers’ digital assets. But so far, no OCC-regulated banks have done so. What’s holding them back? One factor seems to be lack of clarity around exactly what banks are allowed to do and the risks therein. The concept of custody isn’t so complicated when it comes to cash held at a bank. Account deposits are assets that are owned and controlled by the bank, while items in a safety deposit box more directly belong to the customer. “The cash in my bank account isn’t exactly my money,” said Bryan Routledge, associate professor of finance in the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “It’s a claim against the bank.” Bills in a safety deposit box would be “your money, but physically stored at the bank,” Routledge said. “You get the old-fashioned vaults and the big thick doors, but it’s not an asset of the bank.” The concept gets murkier when extended to banks assuming custody over cryptocurrency. The OCC issued an interpretive letter in July confirming that bank custody services could include holding cryptographic keys and other crypto-related assets, in response to a query from an unnamed bank. This clarification applies to federally chartered banks. Currently, companies that receive Wyoming’s special-purpose depository institution charter and trust companies in some states can offer digital asset custody services. “The OCC is trying to get in front of cutting-edge issues by clarifying that national banks can offer services related to crypto where the states have already provided such clarification to state-chartered banks,” said Paul Clark, partner at Seward & Kissel LLP, which has offices in New York and Washington. Customers are likely to be institutional rather than individual investors in cryptocurrency. Registered investment advisers, for example, may prefer holding crypto assets with a full-service bank, which can provide loans and other services, rather than with a trust company. Banks might decide to offer crypto custody if it helps them keep institutional clients who are looking for it and they can use it as a marketing tactic to attract new clients. Collecting fees to store these assets could be another incentive. There are a number of considerations as to when it makes sense for a bank to exercise this power. Although most banks are mum about their intentions, experts agree that they would need sufficient demand from customers to justify the time, resources and technology needed to safely hold these assets. Many are also wary of the risks of cryptocurrency in general, according to recent research.
Banks urge Fed to revise liquidity rule after pandemic shock— For many months, regulators have relaxed regulatory standards in order to help banks weather the COVID-19 crisis. But an impending liquidity benchmark will test the largest institutions' ability to support the fragile economy while complying with new rules. The federal agencies are poised soon to finalize the Net Stable Funding Ratio, a measure of long-term liquidity strength developed after the financial crisis by the international Basel Committee. But some in the industry and other analysts say finalizing the rule, not long after the coronavirus outbreak triggered volatility in the liquidity markets, is playing with fire. They point to the sudden selloff in Treasury securities in the spring, which led the Fed to buy up Treasuries, saying that the new liquidity ratio could make it hard for banks to respond if the market suffered another such shock in the future. The Bank Policy Institute warned in a recent blog post that “adopting the NSFR at this time would be both ironic and reckless.” Bill Nelson, the chief economist at BPI, said in an interview that the NSFR’s treatment of Treasury securities would have exacterbated the market volatility that necessitated an unprecedented intervention from the Fed. He noted the events of this past spring proved that banks could weather the storm without a new liquidity requirement. “It does make it ironic that they are adopting this in the wake of events for which it was demonstrably not needed, and it would have made it worse,” Nelson said in an interview. Banks are already complying with a short-term funding measure known as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, which gauges banks' ability to withstand a sudden market crisis over a 30 day-period. In contrast, the NSFR assesses a bank's ability to fund the asset side of its balance sheet for one year. According to the 2016 proposal by the Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the rule would apply risk weights to different types of assets and liabilities. An institution's "available stable funding" would have to equal or exceed "required stable funding." The proposal would generally apply to banks with over $250 billion of assets, although less complex institutions would comply with a modified version. The NSFR proposal hewed fairly closely to the international standard set by the Basel Committee. Despite hope from many big banks that the NSFR was all but dead, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said last week that he believes the rule will be finished “quite soon.” The Fed is leading the charge among the regulators to complete the rule, according to Politico. Quarles, speaking at an event for Harvard Law School, suggested that regulators will finalize the NSFR as well as a separate package of other Basel III requirements.
Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 65 Institutions -The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for September 2020. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for September 2020. During the month, the list declined by one to 65 banks after one removal. Aggregate assets dropped to $56.8 billion. A year ago, the list held 74 institutions with assets of $55.7 billion. Thanks from a reader for letting us know that the action against CFG Community Bank, Lutherville, MD ($1.6 billion) [was terminated]. With the conclusion of the third quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,767 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.7 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,702 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,003 action terminations, 410 failures, 270 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 410 failures represent 23.2 percent of the 1,767 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.
Biggest U.S. banks keep assets at safest level in 35 years - The largest banks haven’t been this cautious with their holdings in at least 35 years. Cash, Treasurys and other securities effectively guaranteed by the federal government now make up more than 35% of the combined balance sheets of the 25 biggest U.S. banks, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. That’s the biggest share in records going back to 1985, and is 5.5 percentage points higher than the five-year average. Loans and leases now account for less than half of big banks’ books for the first time on record, spurred by what appears to be a combination of lower borrower demand and lenders tightening their standards as the coronavirus pandemic drags on. The cautious stance will fuel debate over whether giant firms are prudently guarding against a worst-case scenario or exacerbating the pain by slowing the flow of credit. “The banks have been flooded with deposits and have nowhere to put it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Autonomous Research. “Healthy companies don’t want to borrow because the future is still uncertain. Struggling companies would like to borrow to stay afloat, but as a bank it’s hard lending to those sectors.” Next week, the largest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, report their third-quarter financial results. The firms will detail their lending activities over the past three months, and investors will be listening for executives’ commentary on how their customers are faring during the COVID-19 crisis. The KBW Bank Index has slumped 30% this year, fueled by Citigroup’s 44% decline and Wells Fargo’s 53% drop. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has gained 6.7%. Hopes that U.S. economic growth would quickly rebound following widespread shutdowns in the spring have largely faded, with economists not expecting a turnaround until the second quarter of 2021, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The pullback in lending comes despite some $525 billion in forgivable small-business loans under the federal Paycheck Protection Program, launched in response to the pandemic. Had the banks kept the mix of loans to securities and cash they’ve had in the past five years, the flood of deposits would have meant an extra $635 billion of loans for consumers and businesses, the figures suggest. Bankers say that businesses have less need for credit, whether in the form of commercial and industrial loans or commercial real estate financing, according to the latest comprehensive survey of banks’ senior loan officers. Households have been clamoring for home mortgages, loan officers said, but there’s less demand for other forms of financing, such as credit cards and auto loans.
Brokered deposits aren't 'hot money' - American Banker -- Opponents of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s brokered deposit revamp tend to use terms like “hot money” and criticize how community banks like mine fund themselves when our customers don’t have enough deposits to support loan demand. They allege that healthy banks that hold nonretail deposits for funding are taking risks that could lead to costly bank failures. Missing from this criticism is that nonretail funding, and even “classic” brokered deposits, are not some balance sheet disaster waiting to happen. And it doesn’t actually have a correlation to unsafe banking practices. Efforts to modernize brokered deposit regulations are being led in Congress by Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., as well as at the FDIC by Chairman Jelena McWilliams. Arguments against those efforts are often centered on the false notion that classic brokered deposits are expensive and prone to flight. However, many community bankers know from experience that a local retail deposit can be costlier and less sticky than a brokered deposit. Other deposits don’t have the built-in predictability of a brokered, term Certificate of Deposit or offer the same protection against changes in interest rates. In fact, retail CDs can pay an early withdrawal fee and leave the bank faster than a brokered CD — which has contractual requirements. Non-CD retail deposits can disappear instantly. By not taking into account these realities, or acknowledging that deposit markets and deposit gathering strategies have changed significantly since the regulations were written in the 1980s, the critics of reform are doing community banks like mine a disservice. However, banks should not be allowed to take on unsafe and unsound liquidity risk. Rather, I am pointing out that the perceived risk of “classic” brokered deposits may not be accurate, and at the very least isn’t so black and white in today’s banking environment. It is important that community banks have a diverse set of funding sources. I know it’s critical for my bank. We operate in a low- and moderate-income community that doesn’t have the deposit base to meet all of the local funding needs. Because of this, we rely on a mix of core, brokered and wholesale funding, which for us is both cheaper and more predictable. Access to diverse sources of funding allows us to serve our community. The brokered deposit regulations that penalize banks for turning to outside or modern sources to supply their liquidity needs also exacerbate the problem that the regulations were intended to fix — costly bank failures that damage the Deposit Insurance Fund.
Deposit glut could dog banks well into next year The flood of deposits that poured into banks during the first half of 2020 was expected to be temporary. But general unease about an economy that’s been clobbered by the coronavirus pandemic — and fear that there is more pain to come — continue to drive down consumer spending and commercial loan demand, leaving banks awash in record-level deposits with few ways to put the cash to work. While interest rates at near zero are making that cash relatively cheap, net interest margins have narrowed and profitability is a concern. Liquidity could stay high if lawmakers negotiate a second round of aid for consumers and businesses — perhaps over $1 trillion on top of the $2.2 trillion already injected in the spring — and recipients of Paycheck Protection Program loans keep their money in the bank because of uncertainty about the economy or loan-forgiveness terms. “I think people are not expecting much in the way of diminished dollars until 2021,” Randy Rosen, vice president of deposit products at FBX, said of deposit levels. To find near-term relief, some banks are paying near-zero rates on deposits and eliminating higher rates for new or preferred customers. Some are using the inflow to buy mortgage-backed securities or make other investments. Other banks are parking cash at the Federal Reserve, where it earns at least some interest. Regions Financial in Birmingham, Ala., is doing all three, plus employing a hedging strategy put into place about three years ago to protect net interest margin in anticipation of a low-interest-rate environment, according to David Turner, chief financial officer of the $144.1 billion-asset company. At June 30, Regions held $116.8 billion of deposits, its highest ever, he said. “We would love to take [the excess cash] and make loans,” Turner said. “But there just aren’t a lot of opportunities to grow right now … and I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of loan growth in a period with this much uncertainty about the economic recovery and the pandemic.”
JPMorgan Plans to Set Climate Targets for Financing Portfolio - JPMorgan Chase & Co. is planning to set emissions targets for its financing portfolio, joining other massive banks in bringing climate goals to its lending activity. The biggest U.S. bank will establish goals to be achieved by 2030 for each each industry in its portfolio, starting with oil and gas, automotive manufacturing and electric power, according to a statement Tuesday. It will begin announcing the targets next year. JPMorgan is also working to achieve a net-zero carbon footprint for its own operations starting this year as part of a broader commitment to align its activity with the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Morgan Stanley had pledged to eliminate the net carbon emissions generated by its financing activities in three decades. The changes send a signal that JPMorgan is thinking more seriously about its role in fighting climate change. The bank has been under increasing pressure from environmental activists to divest from the fossil-fuel industry. In February, the firm said it would tighten its financing policy and pledged to stop advising or lending to companies that get the majority of revenue from the extraction of coal. In May, a shareholder resolution requesting that the firm issue a report outlining how it intends to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions associated with its lending business received support from 49.6% of shareholders -- just missing a majority threshold, according to the preliminary tally. The bank has also replaced Lee Raymond, the former Exxon Mobil Corp. boss, as lead independent director of its board after nonprofit groups and some large investors pushed to remove him due to his track record on climate change.
Bank of America takes on payday lenders -- Bank of America plans to offer some of its customers access to short-term loans, the latest blow to the payday lending industry. Customers who have had checking accounts for more than a year can apply to borrow as much as $500 for a flat $5 fee, the Charlotte, N.C.-based lender said Thursday. The bank will require that the advance, available in increments of $100, be paid back in three equal installments over 90 days. “Customers have told us they have that need for liquidity,” Kevin Condon, senior vice president for consumer-deposit and small-business products at Bank of America, said in an interview. “We want them to stay within mainstream banking to do that.” Even before the coronavirus pandemic, about 40% of U.S. adults said they would struggle to pay for an unexpected $400 expense such as a car repair or a small medical bill, according to asurveyby the Federal Reserve. This year, unemployment has soared, leaving many consumers struggling to keep up with their bills. That has consumer advocates worried about a surge in the use of so-called payday lenders, which charge high annual percentage rates for short-term loans. In response, regulators including the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have been urging banks to begin offering small-dollar loans to customers hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. In May, regulators released guidance to further encourage lenders to engage in small-dollar lending. In the notice, the overseers said the structure of the loans should make it so a borrower is able to successfully repay the loan in a “reasonable time frame rather than reborrowing, rollovers, or immediate collectability in the event of default.” Borrowers’ repayment behavior on the loans, which Bank of America is calling Balance Assist, will be reported to major credit bureaus, Condon said. The bank will use data it gathers from customers’ checking accounts along with outside credit information to determine eligibility, he said. For Bank of America, Balance Assist follows efforts such as its SafeBalance Banking account, which eliminated overdraft fees and has attracted 2 million clients since its debut in 2014. “This is part of the journey that we’ve been on for quite some time,” Steve Boland, president of retail at Bank of America, said in an interview. “I would hope that we’ll see really favorable reactions from all key constituents as they hear about the solution.”
Will CFPB's QM proposal create new housing bubble- - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's proposed overhaul of its mortgage underwriting rule is alarming critics who say it will lead to another housing bubble. One commentator even claims the plan will violate fair-lending laws. The agency in June proposed using a pricing threshold, instead of the current debt-to-income limit, to determine which loans are Qualified Mortgages and therefore safe from liability. Lenders have argued the current 43% DTI limit is too restrictive. The new plan would award QM status to loans capped at 150 basis points above the prime rate. But free-market advocates and others worry the new QM standard will flood the market with unaffordable loans and boost defaults in a repeat of 2008. “The use of the [average prime offer rate] margin may destabilize mortgage markets and lead to episodes of increased delinquency similar to the financial crisis,” said Susan Wachter, a professor of finance and real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Ed Pinto, a resident fellow and director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, who has long advocated for conservative housing policies, has gone a step further. He has urged the CFPB to refer its proposal to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which can investigate potential violations of the Fair Housing Act. In a recent complaint letter to CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, Pinto said the proposed APOR pricing threshold is consistent with higher delinquencies for Black and Hispanic borrowers compared to white borrowers. “Once you take away the DTI requirement even more minorities will end up with even higher delinquencies compared to non-minorities and therefore, the proposed rule has a discriminatory effect,” said Pinto, a former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae, in an interview. It can be hard to determine if someone is going to default or go delinquent until a stress event triggers a job loss or other financial problems. The coronavirus pandemic provided the stress that Pinto needed to analyze whether delinquency rates would disproportionately harm minority borrowers. Using Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, Pinto found that as of July 2020, delinquency rates for loans originated in 2018 and 2019 to Black and Hispanic borrowers was 14.2% at 100 basis points above APOR, and 16.7% at 150 basis points. By comparison, the delinquency rates for white borrowers was 9.4% and 11.4%, respectively. "The facts relating to the CFPB's rule-making practices indicate a pattern or practice of discrimination in violation of the Fair Housing Act," Pinto wrote in the letter. But it is not clear whether the CFPB will forward Pinto's complaint to HUD and some observers question the linkage between the APOR threshold and fair-lending rules
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: "At Current Rate of Improvement, Delinquencies Will Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2022" - Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for August today. According to Black Knight, 6.88% of mortgages were delinquent in August, down from 7.91% in July, and up from 3.45% in August 2019. Black Knight also reported that 0.35% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.48% a year ago.This gives a total of 7.23% delinquent or in foreclosure.Press Release: At Current Rate of Improvement, Delinquencies Will Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2022; Loss Mitigation and High Levels of Equity Help Mitigate Foreclosure Risk This month’s report found that – after tracking relatively closely to the deterioration and recovery timelines of recent natural disasters – the trend lines of COVID-19’s impact on mortgage performance have begun to diverge. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, while this divergence suggests a prolonged recovery period may lay ahead, there are several mitigating factors which together could help lessen the size of a follow-on wave of foreclosures. “When COVID-19 first began to impact the mortgage and housing markets, there was no easy historical precedent by which to gauge the fallout, so we looked to mortgage performance in the wake of recent recessions and natural disasters for clues,” . “And for the first several months of the pandemic, the performance impact of COVID tracked relatively closely to that of major hurricanes. Those trends have since begun to diverge, however, and looking at the 3-month average rate of improvement since May’s peak in mortgage delinquencies suggests a longer recovery timeline. At the current rate of improvement, delinquencies would remain above pre-pandemic levels until March 2022. What’s more, when the first wave of COVID-19-related forbearance plans reach their 12-month expiration period, we would still have a million excess delinquencies. As early-stage delinquencies have already returned to pre-pandemic levels, the bulk of these will be seriously delinquent when the forbearance clock runs Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the National Delinquency Rate. From Black Knight:
• The chasm between early-stage delinquencies and seriously past-due mortgages continued to widen in August
• Overall delinquencies nationwide fell by 0.03% from July after declining a combined 0.85% over the prior two months, a noticeable slowing in the rate of improvement
• The share of borrowers with a single missed payment had already fallen below pre-pandemic levels; in August, the sum of all early-stage delinquencies (those 30-and 60-days past due) fell 9%, to drop below that benchmark as well
• However, the improvement in early-stage delinquencies was offset by a 5% increase in serious delinquencies – 90 or more days past due – which have now risen in each of the past five months
• At 6.88%, the national delinquency rate is now 3.6% above its pre-pandemic level
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.81%" --Note: This is as of September 27th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.81%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 6.87% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.81% as of September 27, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.4 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“As of the end of September, there continues to be a slow and steady decrease in the share of loans in forbearance – driven by consistent declines in the GSE loan share – and a persistently high amount in the Ginnie Mae portfolio,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The significant churn in the labor market now, more than six months into the pandemic, is still causing financial distress for millions of homeowners. As a result, more than 70 percent of loans in forbearance are now in an extension.”...By stage, 28.50% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 70.07% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.43% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased to 0.08 percent from 0.11 percent the previous week. This marks the lowest level of forbearance requests since passage of the CARES Act%.There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined Sharply - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of October 6th. From Forbearances See Largest Single Week Decline Yet: After a slight uptick last week, active forbearance volumes plummeted over the past seven days, falling by 649K from the week prior. An 18% reduction in the number of active forbearances, this represents the largest single-week decline since the beginning of the pandemic and its related fallout in the U.S. housing market. New data from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that as the first wave of forbearances from April are hitting the end of their initial six-month term, the national forbearance rate has decreased to 5.6%. This figure is down from 6.8% last week, with active forbearances falling below 3 million for the first time since mid-April. This decline noticeably outpaced the 435K weekly reduction we saw when the first wave of cases hit the three-month point back in July. As of October 6, 2.97 million homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, representing $614 billion in unpaid principal. Though the market continues to adjust to historic and unprecedented conditions, these are clear signs of long-term improvement. We hope to see a continuation of the promising trend of forbearance reduction in the coming weeks, as an additional 800K forbearance plans are slated to reach the end of their initial six-month term in the next 30 days.
NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Unchanged in October - From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 79.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of October 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 79.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by October 6 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is unchanged from the share who paid rent through October 6, 2019 and compares to 76.4 percent that had paid by September 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “Our initial findings for October show that despite ongoing efforts by apartment community owners and operators to help residents facing financial distress through creative and nuanced payment plans, rent relief and other approaches, renters and the broader multifamily industry are confronting growing challenges,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2020.... The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 50 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago. '”Mortgage rates declined across the board last week – with most falling to record lows – and borrowers responded. The refinance index jumped 8 percent and hit its highest level since mid-August,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Continuing the trend seen in recent months, the purchase market is growing at a strong clip, with activity last week up 21 percent from a year ago. The average loan size increased again to a new record at $371,500, as activity in the higher loan size categories continues to lead growth.”Added Kan, “There are signs that demand is waning at the entry-level portion of the market because of supply and affordability hurdles, as well as the adverse economic impact the pandemic is having on hourly workers and low-and moderate-income households. As a result, the lower price tiers are seeing slower growth, which is contributing to the rising trend in average loan balances.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.01 percent from 3.05 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.52 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.9% Year-over-year in August -The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Home Price Insights for August 2020 Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.9% in August 2020 compared with August 2019 and increased month over month by 1% in August 2020 compared with July 2020 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results)....“The imbalance between homebuyer demand and for-sale inventory is particularly acute for lower-priced homes. Because of this imbalance, homes priced more than 25% below the median were up 8.6% in price over the last year, compared with the 5.9% price increase for all homes.” - Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogicDespite the continued pressures of the pandemic, consumer home-purchasing power has stayed strong as mortgage rates remain at record lows. Meanwhile, for-sale inventory has continued to dwindle, dropping 17% year over year in August, which created upward pressure on home price appreciation as buyers compete for the limited supply of homes. Home price growth is expected to slow as greater availability of new and existing homes are placed for sale in 2021 and elevated unemployment saps buyer demand. The HPI Forecast shows prices will start to downshift in early 2021, with annual U.S. HPI gains slowing to just 0.2% by August 2021 and many locations experiencing a decline in prices. CR Note: The overall impact on house prices will depend on the duration of the crisis.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 65% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME framing futures through Oct 2nd. This is down sharply from late August, but still up 65% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Clearly there has been a surge in demand for lumber and the mills are struggling to meet demand.
Reis: Office, Mall and Apartment Vacancy Rates Increased in Q3 -- From Reis economist Barbara Byrne Denham: The Apartment Vacancy Rate rose to 5.0% in the third quarter, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2012. The Office Vacancy Rate rose 0.3% to 17.4%, the highest since Q3 2011 as occupancy declined by 5.85 million square feet; the Average Office Asking Rent increased 0.2%, but the Effective Rent declined 0.2% in the quarter. The Retail Vacancy Rate increased 0.2% in the quarter to 10.4%, the highest since Q4 2013 as occupancy declined 2.63 million square feet; the Average Asking Rent declined 0.1% while the Average Effective Rent fell 0.4%. The average Mall Vacancy Rate climbed 0.3% in the quarter to 10.1%, the highest in more than 20 years. The average Asking Rent decreased 0.7% in the quarter and 0.6% over the year. The third quarter statistics clearly show that property owners started to feel the impact of the pandemic. Ironically, occupancy growth in the apartment market was net positive, yet rents fell dramatically, especially in some high-priced markets as tenants had the upper hand and property owners recognized this and lowered rents to maintain occupancy. ... Finally, the office market may have seen the smallest impact thus far, but this was likely due to the term structure of leases – the average lease term is 9 years. Still, the continued work-from-home option driven by the pandemic has prompted many office planners to re-consider future office needs which will impact the office market for years. Thus, our outlook remains cautious: vacancies will continue to rise and rents will decline further. However, rent declines will likely not accelerate until 2021 as layoffs from airlines and other industries that had been supported by the CARES Act will hit the economy; and more leases up for renewal are either not renewed, get downsized and/or are renewed at lower rents.This graph shows the regional and strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.4% in Q3, up from 10.2% in Q2, and up from 10.1% in Q3 2019. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011, and the low was 9.8% in Q2 2016. For Regional malls, the vacancy rate was 10.1% in Q3, up from 9.8% in Q2, and up from 9.4% in Q3 2019.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.6% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 3 October: U.S. hotel occupancy decreased slightly from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 3 October. 27 September through 3 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 47.9% (-29.6%)
• AAverage daily rate (ADR): US$95.63 (-26.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$45.80 (-48.1%)
Year-over-year declines were less pronounced compared with previous weeks due to the Rosh Hashanah impact on the hotel calendar in 2019. Most of the markets with the highest occupancy levels were once again those in areas with displaced residents from natural disasters. Amid continued wildfires, California South/Central saw the highest occupancy level at 78.4%. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sally, Mobile, Alabama, reported the next highest occupancy level (73.6%).The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Regal Cinemas closing all locations nationwide - Regal Cinemas, the nation's second-largest theater chain, will close its doors across the country as the film industry continues to be hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic.The Wall Street Journal first reported the closures Monday, citing an interview with the CEO of Regal's parent company, Cineworld.“We are like a grocery shop that doesn’t have vegetables, fruit, meat,” Mooky Greidinger told the newspaper. “We cannot operate for a long time without a product.”Regal's decision will likely further impact the industry. Studios have opted to delay the release of box office blockbusters such as the upcoming James Bond film "No Time to Die" due to the pandemic. Any film released domestically will now face a much smaller pool of theaters available for screenings.Regal operates more than 550 theaters nationwide, trailing behind only AMC, which opted to reopen dozens of locations in August after suspending operations across the country earlier in the year. Cineworld's shares have dropped by more than 80 percent since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year. In July, it moved to reopen its locations as some states saw a decline in their rates of new coronavirus cases.Some states, including Virginia and Oregon, have struggled in recent weeks with attempts to bring the virus under control, and have reported increasing rates of new infections as businesses, schools and other public places have reopened.
U.S. consumer borrowing falls on smaller credit card balances - U.S. consumer borrowing unexpectedly fell in August as credit card balances declined for a sixth consecutive month with the coronavirus pandemic continuing to limit some purchases amid elevated unemployment. Total credit decreased $7.2 billion from the prior month after an upwardly revised $14.7 billion July gain, Federal Reserve figures showed Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $14 billion increase in August. The drop in revolving credit to a three-year low indicates the pace of consumer spending growth is moderating after outsize gains immediately following the gradual lifting of restrictions on businesses and individuals. The expiration of a $600 weekly supplemental benefit for the unemployed may have also played a role in the drop in consumer charges. The absence of additional government financial support to the millions of unemployed Americans is seen limiting the consumer expenditures that make up the largest share of gross domestic product. Revolving credit fell $9.4 billion, the most in three months. The decrease left outstanding revolving credit at $985.3 billion, the lowest since June 2017. Nonrevolving debt, which includes auto and school loans, rose $2.2 billion, though the increase was the smallest since a decrease in April. Lending by the federal government, which is mainly for student loans, increased almost $15 billion before seasonal adjustment. Total consumer credit for the month fell an annualized 2.1% after growing 4.3% in July. The Fed’s report does not track debt secured by real estate, such as home mortgages.
FBI Background Checks Blow Past Annual Record As Guns Fly Off Shelves - As civil unrest continues to sweep the country, more background checks for guns were conducted in the first nine months of the year than during all of 2019, according to data from the FBI. A total of 2.89 million background checks were conducted in September, bringing the YTD total to 28.82 million, and surpassing the previous record set in 2019 of 28.36 million. And while September was the weakest month this year since the pandemic started, it was the strongest September since the FBI began background checks over 20 years ago. "This has been a year unlike any other, where law-abiding Americans are seeing for themselves the need to be able to protect themselves and their family," said Mark Oliva, director of public affairs for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the gun industry group (via Forbes).In cities across the country, gun store shelves are bare as people scramble to load up before civil unrest worsens - or Joe Biden becomes president.
First it was toilet paper — now we’re running out of fridges - Earlier in the pandemic, there was a run on toilet paper. Now it seems that customers looking to buy a refrigerator are facing long waiting times as models are backordered across the country. There are also shortages for other major appliances including dishwashers, dryers and some microwaves. John Taylor, senior vice president of LG Electronics USA told TODAY Food that the industry as a whole is experiencing unprecedented demand when it comes to major appliances. "There are a variety of factors largely related to coronavirus," he said."People are spending more time at home and we've seen a record number not just for fridges but dishwashers, washing machines and dryers. If appliances are 15-20 years old, the more people they use them, the more likely they need to be replaced."Taylor said that in lieu of spending on family vacations, dinners out or movies and concerts, people are looking to invest in their homes and focus on energy savings."When you're looking at how to invest in your home, appliances are at the top of the list," he said.Taylor said there has been an industry-wide disruption in the supply chain, from factories to warehouses, though he noted that LG has mostly avoided major disruptions, but the specific model you want may not be available.With many businesses closing due to COVID-19 and the public spending less due to layoffs and unemployment, stores have had a tricky time predicting what amount of product they need. Coronavirus has also slowed manufacturing and created problems with shipping. "There are supply chain challenges across the globe whether because of people not being able to work to manufacture the items or because they can't physically ship units from a warehouse," Sara Skirboll, shopping and trends expert for RetailMeNot told TODAY Food. "With so many people spending most of their time in their home, a lot of folks are upgrading appliances or redecorating their homes, so the spike in appliances isn't surprising."
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 26% Year-over-year in September - The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.However heavy truck sales started declining late last year due to lower oil prices.Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."Heavy truck sales really declined towards the end of March due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices. Heavy truck sales are now back to March 2020 levels, but still below February 2020 (pre-COVID).Heavy truck sales were at 415 thousand SAAR in September, down from 438 thousand SAAR in August, and down 26% from 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019.Year-to-date heavy truck sales are down 28% compared to the same period in 2019 (288.5 thousand in 2020 compared to 399.4 thousand in 2019 through September).
CDC Extends No-Sail Advisory for U.S. Cruise Industry Through October 31 - After the U.S. cruise industry announced in August that it was voluntarily suspending operations through October 31, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has similarly extended it no-sail advisory through the same period. In a statement issued on September 30, the CDC said that cumulative data it had reviewed showed “at least 3,689 COVID-19 or COVID-like illness cases on cruise ships in U.S. waters, in addition to at least 41 reported deaths,” from March 1 through September 29. Noting that the numbers “are likely incomplete and an underestimate,” the agency said this underscores the need for further action and consideration before safe resumption of operations, as at this point, the agency believes that premature sailing “would likely spread the infection into U.S. communities.” For its part, the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA), a trade group for the largest ships and lines around the world, in conjunction with a Healthy Sail Panel formed by Norwegian Cruise Lines and Royal Caribbean International, submitted the first phase of a series of new health and safety protocols to the CDC for review last month, at the agency's request. The report aims to inform future public health guidance and preventative measures relating to travel on cruise ships. Overseas, cruising did resume this summer, with mixed results: After a few onboard outbreaks on small ships, several sailings on large vessels resumed—MSC Cruises, Costa Cruises—with no report of outbreak or infection. In its statement, the CDC acknowledged this development, but cautioned those successful sailings “significantly burdened public health authorities by creating the need for additional SARS-CoV-2 testing, isolation of infected travelers, contact tracing, and quarantine of exposed people.” The CDC's no-sail advisory for cruise ships carrying passengers of 250 or more has been in place since March. While CLIA has not yet issued a response to the latest extension, industry representatives are expected to meet with White House officials about a safe return to operations October 2, Axios reported. As the regulations stand now, cruise ships cannot disembark any passengers or crew at U.S. ports without approval from the Coast Guard and oversight from the CDC and Department of Health and Human Services, as well as coordination with other federal, state, and local authorities. The CDC says that its order remains in effect until at least the end of the month, or if its director modifies the order, or that COVID-19 is no longer classified as a public health emergency.
Despite COVID outbreaks, NFL season continues in front of tens of thousands of spectators - In spite of coronavirus outbreaks in two different teams in the National Football League (NFL), the season for the world’s most lucrative sporting competition continues unabated. Cam Newton, the star quarterback of the New England Patriots, tested positive for the virus on Saturday. In a mass outbreak, the Tennessee Titans reported that 20 players and staff had tested positive. The Titans announced Monday morning that there had been no additional cases reported and are planning to resume play by October 11. The NFL COVID-19 regulations state that a team can resume activity after just two consecutive days without a positive test. Newton’s positive test caused last Sunday’s planned game against the Kansas City Chiefs to be postponed one day, to Monday night, to allow for players to be tested. With no additional positive tests reported, the game went forward and was played in Kansas City with 16,000 fans in attendance. Only Newton was excluded from the game while he recovers from the virus. The NFL has carried out the least restrictive COVID-19 measures of any other professional sports league. It has not implemented a quarantine “bubble” like the National Hockey League (NHL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA). Nor has it even barred fans at all of its venues from attending in person, like the Major League Baseball (whose pandemic-shortened season was almost derailed as soon as it began by several major outbreaks). In the NBA and NHL, players and team staff lived completely isolated when their seasons restarted over the summer. The leagues played out their seasons in a small number of venues, where players lived in nearby hotels with no contact with anyone outside the bubble. No fans were permitted, and all games were broadcast on TV only. Instead, the NFL has taken an approach similar to college football, relying only on regular rapid testing of players. In college football, this has already produced disasters, with outbreaks occurring in several teams. Hundreds of thousands of fans have attended college games, possible “super-spreader” events which could contribute to a surge in new cases. Outside of testing, players’ lives are continuing normally, without restrictions on their travel or contact with family members and others who may be infected with COVID. The daily routine of the season, including daily practices and games surrounded by dozens of coaches and staffers, reporting staff, and thousands of fans in some cases, continues much as it has before.
The Tennessee Titans’ Continued Outbreak Threatens the NFL’s Schedule – WSJ --The still-growing Covid-19 outbreak inside the Tennessee Titans is on the verge of disrupting another of the team’s games, creating a scheduling nightmare for the NFL’s pandemic season with no easy fix. Another member of the Titans received a positive test result Thursday morning, bringing the team’s total to 21 infections since the start of last week. The continued positives have kept the team’s facility closed, casting doubt on the Titans scheduled game Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. Also at issue is Tennessee’s apparent violation of NFL rules, which could explain the ongoing string of positive Covid-19 tests the team has registered. The latest results fall outside of an incubation period for the virus most experts see as typical for a team that was barred from being together on Sept. 29. That has shifted the league’s attention to the possibility that unsanctioned workouts by Titans players has extended the period during which the squad is at risk. That possibility became a reality Wednesday when a Nashville prep school confirmed that a group of players had gathered there Sept. 30. By then, the team’s facility had already been closed with members of the organization told to conduct no in-person activities. The NFL was hoping to see the team register at least two consecutive days of negative results before allowing its facilities to reopen, a timeline that would now mean the soonest they could reopen would be this weekend. That’s a significant problem for the team—and the league—because there’s no longer much flexibility to reschedule the game. The NFL was able to accommodate the postponement of the Titans game last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers by shuffling around off weeks later in the year, but that wiggle room has now been used up. Attempting to push the game back a day or two would just present a new set of difficulties because the Bills are scheduled to play in next week’s Thursday night game, which would have to be pushed back to accommodate any delay. Other possibilities that have been floated include adding an additional week into the regular season to account for this postponement and others that may arise.
AAR: September Rail Carloads down 9.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 7.1% YoY From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. U.S. rail volumes in September ranged from “generally getting better” to “already pretty good.” On the “already pretty good” side, average weekly U.S. intermodal originations in September were 284,777 units. That’s the fourth most for any month in history and up 7.1% over September 2019 ... U.S. rail carloads are in the “generally getting better” category. Total carloads in September were down 9.7% from last year. That’s still a sizable decline, to be sure, but it’s the smallest since March 2020. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020: On the carload side, volumes are still down, but by less than they were. U.S. railroads originated an average of 223,909 total carloads per week in September 2020. That’s their lowest weekly average for September since sometime before 1988 (when our data begin). That said, total carloads in September 2020 were down 9.7% from September 2019 — their smallest monthly year-over-year percentage decline since March 2020, when the lockdowns began. The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Like nearly every other rail category, intermodal fell sharply in the spring — it was down 12.6% in Q2 2020, including a 17.2% decline in April. A few months later, things are very different. U.S. railroads originated 1.31 million containers and trailers in September 2020, up 7.1% over September 2019 — the biggest year-over-year percentage gain for intermodal since December 2016.... Why the change? U.S. imports of consumer goods are surging — they set an all-time monthly record in August 2020, with China supplying a huge share of them. After stalling in the spring, China’s export machine has come roaring back. Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic.
Trade Deficit Increased to $67.1 Billion in August -From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in August, up $3.7 billion from $63.4 billion in July, revised. August exports were $171.9 billion, $3.6 billion more than July exports. August imports were $239.0 billion, $7.4 billion more than July imports. Both exports and imports increased in August. Exports are down 18% compared to August 2019; imports are down 8.5% compared to August 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months.Oil imports averaged $41.69 per barrel in August, up from $40.60 per barrel in July, and down from $58.57 in August 2019. The trade deficit with China decreased to $29.8 billion in August, from $31.7 billion in August 2019.
U.S. trade deficit widened in August to largest since 2006 -The U.S. trade deficit widened in August to the largest since 2006 as the nation imported a record amount of consumer goods amid a pickup in demand ahead of the holiday-shopping season. The overall gap in trade in goods and services expanded to $67.1 billion in August from a revised $63.4 billion in July, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday, Oct. 6. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists had called for a widening to $66.2 billion. The positive balance on services dropped to $16.8 billion. Total imports increased 3.2% to $239 billion, while exports rose 2.2% from the prior month to $171.9 billion. The nation's surplus in services shrank to the lowest since 2012. Meanwhile, the merchandise trade deficit expanded to a record high. The coronavirus pandemic undid some of the Trump administration's deficit-reduction efforts which were starting to bear fruit before COVID-19 upended demand and supply chains. American businesses, which drew down inventories at the start of the lockdown, have recently increased imports to replenish stocks ahead of the holidays. Meanwhile, depressed economic activity abroad has led to smaller improvements in exports of goods from the world's biggest economy. Trade volumes are higher than May's pandemic lows, but remain depressed following the initial uptick stemming from reopening measures. Together, the value of U.S. exports and imports climbed to almost $411 billion, still well below pre-pandemic levels. The increase in imports of services outpaced the advance in exports, resulting in a lower overall surplus. Travel exports — which refer to tourists to the U.S. — declined for a sixth straight month and were down 77% from a year earlier. Imports of services, ranging from insurance and financial services to construction and travel, rose to almost $36.1 billion. This is the final release of data on trade in goods and services before the Nov. 3 election. Trade has been a keystone of President Donald Trump's agenda, with his administration determined to minimize U.S. merchandise imports from China, which went from being America's biggest trading partner at the end of 2017 to third-largest — after Mexico and Canada — by December 2019. Trump's strategy of imposing hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs on imports of Chinese goods saw fewer products from the Asian nation arrive on U.S. shores, with the monthly goods-trade deficits gradually becoming smaller since late 2018. The partial trade agreement signed in January was supposed to result in China buying an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over two years. While the country is unlikely to reach the targets this year — partially because the pandemic upended demand and supply chains — it has made record purchases of American beef and corn, and has reiterated its commitment to the agreement.
ISM Services Index Increased to 57.8% in September - The September ISM Services index was at 57.8%, up from 56.9% last month. The employment index increased to 51.8%, from 47.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 57.8%; September 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business® The Services PMI™ registered 57.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the August reading of 56.9 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the fourth straight month and the 126th time in the last 128 months, except for April's and May's contraction."The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.9 percent, down 5.6 percentage points from August's reading of 60.5 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index. This was above the consensus forecast, and the employment index was above 50 following six consecutive months of contraction.
Markit Services PMI: "New business growth accelerates to fastest since March 2019" -- The September US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 54.6 percent, down 0.4 from the final August estimate of 55.0. The Investing.com consensus was for 54.6 percent. Here is the opening from the latest press release: “The U.S. economy continued to rebound in September from the deep contraction seen at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with business activity rising across both manufacturing and services to round off the strongest quarter since early-2019. “Covid-19 worries and social distancing continued to impact many businesses, however, especially in consumerfacing sectors, where demand for services fell once again. However, business and financial services, healthcare and housing sectors all fared well as the economy continued to revive, and exports of services also picked up as other countries continued to open up their economies.“Encouragingly, new orders for services grew at an increased rate in September, putting additional pressure on operating capacity and fuelling another robust rise in employment. A further rise in backlogs of work bodes well for robust jobs growth to be sustained into October.“Sentiment on prospects for the coming year darkened significantly, however, linked to growing worries about virus numbers, uncertainty regarding the presidential election and fears that the economy is susceptible to weakening unless more support measures are put in place soon.” [Press Release]Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
U.S. Services Activity Rose as New Curbs Weighed on Europe, Asia – WSJ - The recovery for U.S. services businesses gained momentum in September, surveys of purchasing managers show, while fresh coronavirus restrictions hurt activity in Europe and Asia. The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index—a survey-based measure of activity in U.S. industries such as travel, health care, restaurants and real estate—rose to 57.8, up from 56.9 in August. Separately, private data firm IHS Markit said Monday its U.S. services index came in at 54.6 last month, down slightly from 55.0 in August though still in expansion territory. Both surveys track the direction—as opposed to the magnitude—of change in business activity, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion, while a level below 50 signals contraction. Recent global surveys of companies separately found that factories bounced back in September and had largely closed the gap opened by lockdowns many countries employed in the spring to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Get a coronavirus briefing six days a week, and a weekly Health newsletter once the crisis abates: Sign up here. However, service providers—travel, hospitality, entertainment and many others—were coming back more slowly, as many consumers, wary of fresh infections and concerned about their jobs and finances, remain at home and cut their spending. In the U.S., the pickup in demand for services captured in the survey aligned with a brightening outlook among U.S. shoppers, with the two leading indexes of consumer optimism turning up in September. This improvement among U.S. businesses and households contrasts with Europe, where a coronavirus resurgence began darkening the economic outlook last month. September’s purchasing-managers index fell sharply in Spain, the country hit hardest by Europe’s second wave. The U.S. services readings stood out from other recent economic data in the country that signal a slowing pace of recovery. Job gains decelerated sharply in September as once-temporary layoffs became permanent, according to the Labor Department’s latest report. Growth in consumer spending weakened in August, as the boost from federal aid faded. Still, the pandemic continues to weigh on the services sector, which includes many industries that hinge on in-person interactions. Americans spent 7% less on services in August than a year earlier.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 840,000 - Special technical note on California (two week pause). The DOL reported: In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 840,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 12,000 from 837,000 to 849,000. The 4-week moving average was 857,000, a decrease of 13,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,000 from 867,250 to 870,250. This does not include the 464,437 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 508,707 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Jobless claims: yet another week of glacial progress - Today marked yet another week of glacial progress in initial jobless claims, at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 5,312 to 804,307. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims fell by 9,000 to 840,000, another new pandemic low. The 4 week moving average also declined by 13,250 to a new pandemic low of 857,000: Here is a close-up of the last two months highlighting the glacial progress in initial claims during the past 7 weeks: Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,010,280 to 10,612,021. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 1,003,000 to 10,976,000. Both of these numbers are also new pandemic lows: Continuing claims are now about 60% below their worst level from the beginning of May, but remain about 4 million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession. There has been only very slow downward movement in new jobless claims over the past nine weeks. The pandemic shock recession is gradually turning into something much more chronic, with more long-term damage that will be more difficult to remedy.
BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 6.5 Million in August - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.9 million in August. Total separations decreased to 4.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.0 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to a series low of 1.0 percent. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August, the most recent employment report was for September. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings decreased in August to 6.493 million from 6.697 million in July.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 9.4% year-over-year.Quits were down 21% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").Job openings decreased in August, and are down YoY - and quits are down sharply YoY.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows hiring failed to improve: Congress must act to fix massive jobs shortfall - Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that, as of the middle of September, the economy was still 10.7 million jobs below where it was in February. Job growth slowed considerably over the last few months and the jobs deficit in September was easily over 12 million from where we would have been if the economy had continued adding jobs at the pre-pandemic pace. Today’s BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports job openings softened from 6.7 million in July to 6.5 million in August while layoffs and quits both dropped. While the slowdown in layoffs is promising, the drop in quits is a concern. Hiring in August was on par with what we experienced in July. The U.S. economy is seeing a significantly slower pace of hiring than we experienced in May or June—hiring is roughly where it was before the recession, which is a big problem given that we have more than 12 million jobs to make up. No matter how it is measured, the U.S. economy is facing a huge job shortfall.One of the most striking indicators from today’s report is the job seekers ratio, that is, the ratio of unemployed workers (a veraged for mid-August and mid-September) to job openings (at the end of August). On average, there were 13.1 million unemployed workers while there were only 6.5 million job openings. This translates into a job seeker ratio of two unemployed workers to every job opening. Another way to think about this: for every 20 workers who were officially counted as unemployed, there were only available jobs for 10 of them. That means, no matter what they did, there were no jobs for 6.6 million unemployed workers. And this misses the fact that many more weren’t counted among the unemployed. Without congressional action to stimulate the economy, we are facing a slow, painful recovery.As winter approaches and many families face eviction and hunger, it is essential that Congress provide relief to all of those unemployed workers who have no hope for employment and are desperately trying to make ends meet. The first dose of austerity exhibited by the loss to the vital enhanced unemployment insurance benefit in August is already taking a toll on job creation. At this slowing pace of job growth, it will take years to return to the pre-pandemic labor market. It didn’t have to be this way. With additional aid to state and local governments as well as reinstituting the $600 weekly boost to unemployment insurance (UI), it is likely that job growth could be over 10 million jobs higher through the next year (5.3 million for state and local aid plus 5.1 million for UI extensions). Unfortunately, continued federal inaction will make it far harder in coming months to claw back the jobs lost during the pandemic.
Nearly 650,000 more women than men dropped out of the job market in September - The coronavirus pandemic has been especially difficult for working women, and the latest employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that it has not gotten easier in September. The US added 661,000 jobs in September, but a large number of women left the workforce, meaning they are neither working nor actively looking for work. Michael Madowitz, an economist at The Center for American Progress, tweeted a chart that highlights the drastic number of people dropping out, especially women. The following chart shows the monthly change in labor force participation by sex. Labor force participation includes both people who are working and those looking for work. Labor force participation dropped for both sexes, suggesting an increasing number of people giving up on looking for work, retiring, or caring for family full-time. But the monthly change for women was much larger than for men. Labor force participation declined by 865,000 women from August to September, while about 216,000 men left the labor force. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points for both men and women, although the rate is still higher for women. The September unemployment rate was 8.0% for women and 7.7% for men. A survey conducted by McKinsey and Company and Lean In of around 40,000 workers found 1 in 4 women have considered dropping out of the workforce or cutting hours amid the pandemic. Working mothers are having to balance their own work with their children's schooling. Per reporting from the New York Times, the problem is especially hard for mothers in retail where schedules are not as structured. The New York Times also cites results fromCensus Bureau polling in mid-July where 32.1% of women aged 25-44 are not working because of childcare, compared to only 12.1% of men. The Washington Post also found low-income and single mothers have to decide between paying for expensive childcare or dropping out of the workforce, which could have long-term effects on labor force participation for women. Additionally, BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, person of color) womenhave reportedly been one of the demographics most negatively impacted by the pandemic. One reason for this is because they work in a lot of the jobs hardest hit by the pandemic and on the frontlines of the pandemic, such as health care workers. The unemployment rate for white women in September was 6.9%, while the rate for Black and African American women was 11.1%.
WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023 – WSJ -The U.S. labor market faces a protracted recovery amid the continued spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty over prospects for another stimulus package and the outcome of the presidential election, according to a new Wall Street Journal survey of economists.More than half of business and academic economists polled this month said they didn’t expect the labor market to claw back until 2023 or later all the jobs lost as a result of coronavirus-related shutdowns. That is a slower timeline than economists predicted six months ago.Hiring gains slowed sharply heading into the fall as more layoffs turned permanent, adding to signs that the economy faces a long slog to fully recover from the coronavirus pandemic.“The slowing momentum in the labor market bodes poorly for the broader recovery and points to increasing scarring effects from the crisis,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The U.S. had nearly 11 million fewer jobs in September than it did in February. Nearly 4 million of the jobs lost since the start of the pandemic were in the leisure and hospitality sector, according to the Labor Department. Economists say recovery in travel and hospitality has been slower than expected earlier in the pandemic because of continued high coronavirus infection rates. “The damage to service-sector employment will be long lasting, and many will face long durations of unemployment that will delay the return to February 2020 levels,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. Six months ago, in The Wall Street Journal’s April survey of economists, more than half of respondents expected job losses to hit a trough in the second quarter of 2020. That proved to be the case: The labor market shed a seasonally adjusted 13.3 million jobs in the second quarter, the steepest quarterly decline in records dating to 1939. In this month’s survey, just over a third of economists, 34.7%, broadly stuck with that timeline and said payrolls would recover in 2022. A larger share, 42.9%, now see the labor market recovering in 2023, and another 12.2% expect it will take even longer—with 2% expecting it will take until 2030.
The Covid Economy Carves Deep Divide Between Haves and Have-Nots – WSJ - A two-track recovery is emerging from the country’s pandemic-driven economic contraction. Some workers, companies and regions show signs of coming out fine or even stronger. The rest are mired in a deep decline with an uncertain path ahead. Just months ago, economists were predicting a V-shaped recovery—a rapid rebound from a steep fall—or a U-shaped path—a prolonged downturn before healing began. What has developed is more like a K. On the upper arm of the K are well-educated and well-off people, businesses tied to the digital economy or supplying domestic necessities, and regions such as tech-forward Western cities. By and large, they are prospering. On the bottom arm are lower-wage workers with fewer credentials, old-line businesses and regions tied to tourism and public gatherings. They can expect to bear years-long scars from the crisis. The divergence helps explain the striking disconnect of a stock market and household wealth near record highs, while lines stretch at food banks and applications for jobless benefits continue to grow. In the latest example, consumer spending rose 1% in August but overall personal income fell 2.7% from July, in part because the unemployed received less government aid, according to Commerce Department figures reported last Thursday. Employers have added 11.4 million jobs since the start of May, and economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate gross domestic product rose at a 23.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That some workers, industries and regions are managing to power through the pandemic explains why growth is so strong. Those gains still leave the country well short of where it started the year. The pandemic and lockdowns knocked out 22.2 million jobs in March and April and caused the economy to shrink at a 31.4% rate in the second quarter and a 5% pace in the first. The pandemic has effectively erased all the economic growth of 2018 and 2019. Even with recent gains, more jobs have been lost—nearly 11 million—than were cut in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, when 8.7 million were eliminated. The gyrating numbers are a shock to a U.S. economy that had been averaging a little better than 2% annual growth for a decade. Together, the gains and losses show the economy at large is still in a hole after months of the fastest employment and output spurt on record, and could take years to fully dig out.
Nurses suffer burn-out, psychological distress in COVID fight - association (Reuters) - Many nurses caring for COVID-19 patients are suffering burn-out or psychological distress, and many have faced abuse or discrimination outside of work, the International Council of Nurses (ICN) said. Supplies of personal protective equipment for nurses and other health workers in some care homes remain insufficient, it said, marking World Mental Health Day on Saturday. “We are extremely concerned about the mental health impact on nurses,” Howard Catton, a British nurse who is the ICN’s chief executive, told Reuters Television at the association’s headquarters in Geneva. “Our most recent survey of national nurses’ associations shows that more than 70% of them (the associations) were saying that nurses have been subject to violence or discrimination and as a result of that they are very concerned about extreme cases of psychological distress and mental health pressure,” he said. The figure was based on responses from roughly a quarter of its national nurses’ associations in more than 130 countries. Nurses face a broad spectrum of issues that affect their mental health, including physical and verbal abuse, Catton said. “There are nurses who have been subject to discrimination, where their landlord has not renewed their lease for their apartment, or they can’t get child care for their children,” he said, without giving specifics of physical or verbal abuse. ICN has lobbied for better protection and working conditions for nurses on the front lines of the pandemic. “We still continue to see problems with the supplies personal protective equipment. There have been improvements, particularly in hospitals,” Catton said. But some care homes and long-term care facilities in Europe, and in North and South America still lack supplies, he said, citing its members’ survey.
Millions Risk Losing Power Over Unpaid Utilities As Most States' Pandemic Grace Period Expires - Millions of Americans are facing a dire situation of being without power or water as their utility bills pile up, and as state and local protections which allowed for deferred payments amid the pandemic come to an end.After a summer of rising unemployment numbers brought on by the crisis, though seeing a promising potential softening of the trend in September, The Washington Post recently detailed some instances of people going as much as two months in the dark after falling behind on utility payments last spring."The worst economic crisis in more than a generation has thrust potentially millions of Americans across the country into a similar, sudden peril: Cash-strapped, and in some cases still unemployed, they have fallen far behind on their electricity, water and gas bills, staring down the prospect of potential utility shut-offs and fast-growing debts they may never be able to repay," the Post summarized of new National Energy Assistance Directors' Association (NEADA) analysis. Soon following the start of the pandemic in the US and resulting state lockdowns, most states moved to ensure residents that they would prevent utility shut-offs for an extended grace period. But still the debts have mounted, and at this point, the NEADA finds, only 21 states along with the District of Columbia still have disconnection bans in place. That means the majority of states are shutting off utilities over unpaid bills. And further, "Millions more in nine other states are set to lose their protections starting Thursday and throughout the fall, the group found," WaPo reports.The study found that 179 million Americans are potentially at risk of shut-offs, though with the big and unlikely assumption that the vast amount of households would fail to pay their bills altogether. But still even a small percentage of this number means many hundreds of thousands of households, or even millions, face being in the dark. Consider a single state, Indiana: In some cases, the delinquencies appear to be severe. In Indiana, for example, more than 112,000 households are behind 120 days or more on their power bills, a Washington Post analysis of the largest local energy companies’ records found. The debt, totaling millions of dollars, is four times greater than the arrears accrued during the same period in 2019, the data shows.
NJ told to halt utility shutoffs, find out how many customers are in trouble -- The state should extend a moratorium on utility shutoffs until next April and launch a proceeding to determine just how much debt customers may have run up by not paying bills during the pandemic, according to New Jersey’s Division of Rate Counsel. In a petition filed yesterday with the Board of Public Utilities, Rate Counsel director Stefanie Brand also urged the regulatory agency to suspend filings of new base-rate cases and spending on infrastructure programs by utilities during the ongoing public health crisis. The filing reflects mounting concerns by her office and consumer advocates over the long-term impact COVID-19 has had on New Jersey where more than 16,000 people have died and over 1.56 million have filed for unemployment since the pandemic began in mid-March. “COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on both the health and financial wellbeing of New Jersey ratepayers,’’ Brand argued in the petition. She urged the board to consider how many customers have fallen behind on their their bills and by how much, as well as what steps can be taken to eliminate that debt. Brand cited Gov. Phil Murphy speaking on National Public Radio last month, “Most everybody is hurting, but particularly, low-income workers and their families have been crushed. Small businesses have been crushed. The impact has been staggering across the board.’’ The governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment. But other consumer advocates urged the governor to extend the voluntary moratorium, which is now scheduled to expire on Oct. 15. “It is likely that hundreds of thousands of New Jersey families and businesses cannot afford their utility bills and are at risk of being shut off … these essential lifeline services are always critical for health and safety, but especially during a pandemic,’’ said Ev Liebman, associate director of AARP New Jersey. “We hope the board responds quickly.’’
Utilities can now cut off non-paying customers, Pa. agency says, but there are safeguards for the poor -Pennsylvania utilities will be allowed to resume shutoffs of nonpaying customers on Nov. 9 after state regulators Thursday lifted a moratorium imposed at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic emergency.The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission on Thursday voted 3-1 to again permit service terminations, but put safeguards into place for families and small businesses that are struggling financially because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The PUC’s action resolves a dispute that had stalemated the commission for months over how to end the moratorium. Utilities say the COVID-19 moratorium has made it difficult for them to collect payments or to get customers to sign up for low-income assistance. They say customers were late on a total of $479 million in June, a figure that is mounting. But consumer advocates say that a public health emergency is no time to shut off a vital service, the loss of which could mean homelessness for some.“The moratorium on utility service terminations was the right decision to make in March, but the moratorium cannot be the sole solution for assisting vulnerable utility customers,” said Gladys Brown Dutrieuille, the PUC chair. “Many other states have moved or are moving from moratoriums by designing plans to assist payment troubled customers keep utility service.”The PUC’s order will still prohibit utilities from shutting off “protected customers” whose income is no more than triple the Federal Poverty Guidelines, which are set at $26,200 for a family of four, so the yearly limit for such a family would be $78,600. The protected customers must apply for available assistance programs and request a payment arrangement from the utility to pay down their debt.
Many Electric Co-ops Resumed Disconnections As Utilities Were Prevented From Shutting Off Power | Wisconsin Public Radio - State regulators have prevented utilities from shutting off water, power and heat for residential customers during the COVID-19 crisis. But the state's 24 electric cooperatives that serve more than 587,000 customers aren't required to meet the same standard. While the Public Service Commission (PSC) oversees utilities, electric cooperatives are member-owned and governed by a board of directors elected by members, said Steve Freese, president and CEO of the Wisconsin Electric Cooperative Association. WHYsconsin was recently asked what protections people have in regard to utility shutoffs or fees associated with late payments if the utility is a co-op. The person who reached out to WHYsconsin has electricity provided by Polk-Burnett Electric Cooperative and said they were told the co-op does not have to abide by the state's moratorium. They also asked how a crucial service that is also the only option for customers can be exempt from the moratorium. Freese said all members of the association voluntarily complied with the PSC's moratorium on utility shutoffs while the state's "Safer at Home" order was in place, which contributed to a spike in past-due bills among members. "When the order was lifted, many of the electric co-ops made the decision to go back and to follow the disconnection protocols that they had as policies in place," said Freese. Since then, only four cooperatives have not resumed disconnections. Yet, Freese said cooperatives are generally reporting less than 1 percent of their members aren't paying their bills.
Top US Food Bank Warns Of Nationwide "Meal Shortages" In Next 12 Months - The virus pandemic and resulting recession, crushing millions of households, has produced a new era of hunger nationwide. After seven months of the coronavirus chaos, triggering widespread unemployment and the collapse of small businesses, millions of Americans are going hungry for the first time in their lives ahead of the holiday season. Tens of millions of Americans have turned to their local food banks as food insecurity spirals out of control. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey from late August, about 10% of adults, 22.3 million, reported they didn't have enough to eat or lacked food. This figure is up from 18 million in early March. Now, Feeding America, a nationwide network of more than 200 food banks, serving more than 46 million people, is warning it may experience a massive food shortage within the next twelve months, reported WaPo. Feeding America said it could face a deficit of "10 billion pound shortfall between now and June of 2021 – the equivalent of 8 billion meals." In July, the nonprofit organization "estimated the total need for charitable food over the next year would be an unprecedented 17 billion pounds, more than three times the food bank network's last annual distribution of 5 billion pounds." Rising food insecurity comes as the economy faces a tidal wave of long-term unemployment as millions of people who lost jobs early in the pandemic and remain out of work, unable to find a job, as job losses increasingly become permanent.At the moment, nearly 4 million jobs have vanished forever. Two problems are developed: rising long-term unemployment and permanent job losses, the combination of the two create deep economic scarring and immense financial pain for households. The Salvation Army recently launched its annual holiday fundraising campaign early this year, for the first time in 130 years, in a bid to "rescue Christmas" to support those households financially ruined by the economic downturn.
Parents: Online learning program has racist, sexist content(AP) — Zan Timtim doesn't think it's safe for her eighth-grade daughter to return to school in person during the coronavirus pandemic but also doesn't want her exposed to a remote learning program that misspelled and mispronounced the name of Queen Liliʻuokalani, the last monarch to rule the Hawaiian Kingdom. Timtim's daughter is Native Hawaiian and speaks Hawaiian fluently, “so to see that inaccuracy with the Hawaiian history side was really upsetting,” she said. Even before the school year started, Timtim said she heard from other parents about racist, sexist and other concerning content on Acellus, an online program some students use to learn from home. Parents have called out “towelban” as a multiple-choice answer for a question about a terrorist group and Grumpy from “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs" described as a “woman hater.” Some also say the program isn't as rigorous as it should be.As parents help their children navigate remote classes, they’re more aware of what's being taught, and it's often not simply coming from an educator on Zoom. Some schools have turned to programs like Acellus to supplement online classes by teachers, while others use it for students who choose to learn from home as campuses reopen. And because of the scramble to keep classes running during a health crisis, vetting the curriculum may not have been as thorough as it should have been, experts say. Thousands of schools nationwide use Acellus, according to the company, and parents' complaints are leading some districts to reconsider or stop using the program. “We wouldn't have had this visibility if it weren't for all of us at home, often sitting side by side and making sure: ‘Is this working for you?'" said Adrienne Robillard, who withdrew her seventh-grade daughter from Kailua Intermediate School after concluding Acellus lacked substance and featured racist content.
Partial closures in New York City as infections spread throughout US schools - Throughout the United States, school reopenings have been a complete disaster. More than 30 K-12 educators have died since schools began reopening in late July, and at least 39,000 students and school employees have been infected across the country. On October 1, one day after her 58th birthday, first grade bilingual teacher Olga Quiroga died after battling COVID-19. Quiroda taught at Funston Elementary and had worked in the Chicago Public School District (CPS) for over 30 years. Although CPS began the school year fully online for most students, Quiroga became infected after being forced to make a number of trips to her school for required pre-service workdays, including a back-to-school event where she met her students’ parents and handed out supplies for the upcoming academic year. While sick at home, Quiroga continued to teach her students virtually as the school year began. After a week of worsening symptoms while teaching virtually, she was taken by her daughter to the emergency room and never left the hospital. There have now been nine reported deaths of CPS workers since the onset of the pandemic. Despite the surge in infections and deaths among educators across the country, major school districts that have started online are now pushing for the full resumption of in-person learning, which will vastly accelerate the spread of the pandemic. In New York City, mass school reopenings combined with the easing of social distancing restrictions in recent weeks have led to a rapid rise in infections across the city. At least 145 teachers and 38 students have tested positive for COVID-19, and the average infection rate throughout the city has nearly doubled in the past week, from one to 1.75 percent in the past week. On Sunday, Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that all non-essential businesses, as well as public and private schools, will close this Wednesday, October 7, in neighborhoods with a three percent infection rate for seven consecutive days. The closures will impact roughly half a million people across nine zip codes and encompass parts of at least 20 neighborhoods within the city, with roughly 100 public and 200 non-public schools closing in the largest school district in the country.
New York governor closes some schools and businesses while COVID-19 infections spike - New York’s Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a new tiered system of restrictions on Tuesday in response to the rapid development of coronavirus hotspots throughout the state. The plan establishes a system of color-coded zones (red, orange and yellow) with varying degrees of restrictions on schools and nonessential businesses. Within so-called red zones, schools and nonessential businesses would be shuttered for a minimum of two weeks, restaurants would be limited to take-out, and religious gatherings in excess of 10 people would be banned. Areas designated as orange and yellow zones would be subject to more limited restrictions. New York City neighborhoods in south Brooklyn, central Queens and Far Rockaway, which had previously been designated hotspots by Mayor Bill de Blasio, as well as Rockland and Orange counties and the town of Binghamton, all located within two hours northwest of the city, will be impacted by the plan set to go into effect Friday. The emergence of coronavirus spikes within the state is by no means limited to these areas. The plan announced by Cuomo is a political move intended to cast a negative light on his antagonist New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who is also a Democrat. On Sunday, de Blasio called for the temporary closure of about 300 schools, as well as nonessential businesses within nine zip codes in the areas of Brooklyn and Queens. The positivity rate in all these areas has risen to double the three percent citywide threshold previously set by de Blasio to trigger a shutdown of all city schools. An additional 11 zip codes in New York City were placed on a “watch list” due to sharp spikes in positivity rates. Both the Cuomo and de Blasio plans have received the blessings of the United Federation of Teachers (UFT), which was instrumental in opening the schools in September. On Sunday, the UFT President Michael Mulgrew praised the governor, saying, “This is the right decision, one that helps protect our schools, our neighborhoods, and ultimately our city.” The recent case of a student at P373K, a school for children with autism and developmental disabilities in Brooklyn where many students cannot wear face coverings, underscores the unsafe conditions for hundreds of thousands of students and educators. A student attended classes for two days before being identified as positive, and staff at the school were only informed after directly calling the parent to inquire into absences. At least 13 students and staff remain quarantined.
New York City Seeks to Shortchange Teachers on $900 Million of Back Pay -- Yves Smith -- The latest fiscal shoe to drop in the Big Apple is the city reneging on $900 million of back pay to teachers, the fourth installment in a deal struck by Mayor Bill de Blasio in 2014. From what I can infer, teachers had gotten lower pay increases than other city workers in the years right after the financial crisis and sought a make-up. The incoming mayor and the unions agreed on a complicated package for teachers hired before 2012. You can read a summary here; these were the two groups subject to the pay deferral scheme:
- – Upcoming Retirees: Anyone who retires before June 30, 2014 will also receive a lump sum payment for 100 percent of their back pay. Anyone who retires after June 30, 2014 will receive their full back pay delivered in five separate payments from 2015 through 2020.
- – Mid-Career Teachers: Anyone who was teaching in 2009, 2010, and/or 2011, is still teaching, and remains in continuous employment (meaning they don’t leave or take a year off for, say, childbirth), will receive a $1,000 payment immediately; 12.5 percent retroactive payments in 2015 and 2017; and 25 percent payments in 2018, 2019, and 2020. .
- – Early-Career Teachers: Using the pension plan’s assumptions for retention, the average first-year teacher in 2009 had less than a 50-50 chance of making it to 2020. Many of them are already gone, but another 25 percent of the class of 2009 will leave between now and when they’ll be eligible for full retroactive pay in 2020
So you can see the motivation for deferring the pay wasn’t the usual hope that New York City’s finances would be better later (and that the value of money in the future is less than money now) but also that the number of recipients would be reduced by the “remaining in continuous employment” requirement. The Wall Street Journal broke the story of New York City announcing it would not make its $900 million payment due this month:New York City can’t afford to pay a lump sum due its teachers because of the new coronavirus, city officials said Thursday, reflecting a fiscal crisis that has already led to budget cuts and service reductions. The city teachers union, which puts the amount due this month at $900 million, called Thursday for immediate arbitration.
Parents At New York's Dalton School Revolt Over $54K Tuition For Online Classes - Parents at New York's elite Dalton School are spitting mad over having to pay $54,180 in tuition for online-only classes during the pandemic, according to Bloomberg. Now, after weeks of watching kids stream in and out of other private school buildings, and the city’s public schools resuming in-person learning, some Dalton parents are calling for kids to get off their computers and back in the classroom. –Bloomberg “We are, in short, frustrated and confused and better hope to understand the school’s thought processes behind the virtual model it has adopted," said a group of about a dozen physician-parents in a letter to the head of the school last week. "Please tell us what are the criteria for re-opening fully in person. Covid-19 is not going away and waiting for that to happen is misguided."Dalton is one of many schools around the country which has restricted or eliminated in-person education during the pandemic. That said, remote learning risks children falling behind, both academically and socially as Bloomberg notes. Adding to the frustration is parents who are sick of writing giant tuition checks for virtual learning.Meanwhile, a petition for the return of on-campus classes was signed over the weekend by over 70 lower-school parents, who say "Zoom-school is not Dalton.""From our understanding, several of our peer schools are not just surviving but thriving," reads the letter from the physician parents. "Our children are sad, confused and isolated, questioning why everyone around them gets to go to school when they do not."Jim Best, the head of school, told the physicians he wants to work with them on a reopening plan for Dalton’s 1,300 students and 250 teachers, according to one of the parents, who asked not to be identified.“We welcome and appreciate the perspective of these parents, as well as every parent and member of our community,” a spokesperson for the Upper East Side school said Monday in a statement. -BloombergThe frustrated letter comes as New York redoubles efforts to lock down after its si xth-consecutive day of infections of 1,000 or more - while Mayor Bill de Blasio says he'll shutter Brooklyn and Queens schools located in hot spots starting Wednesday.
Pennsylvania educators, bus drivers and school workers launch rank-and-file safety committee to put an end to in-person instruction - We announce today the formation of the Pennsylvania Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee to oppose the school reopenings enacted by Democratic Governor Tom Wolf and supported by Democratic and Republican state and local officials. Face-to-face instruction places the lives of educators, school workers, students, and the broader community at grave risk. These measures are not meant to help young people, whose health and lives are placed in jeopardy, but rather to force the entire working class back on the job for the sake of corporate profits.The resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic is in full swing across the US and internationally. It has been driven by the bipartisan policy of unlimited financial support to Wall Street while forcing workers to choose between destitution, hunger and homelessness, on the one hand, or returning to unsafe schools and businesses on the other.Pennsylvania has a patchwork of 500 school districts, each choosing independently whether to open with face-to-face learning, online learning, or a hybrid model that combines the two. Many teachers returning for face-to-face instruction have reported that they have been given one face mask and a bottle of “blue liquid” as a disinfectant, while others have been provided nothing. The Wolf administration’s Department of Education has refused to issue any safety mandates for reopenings. State guidelines which restrict event sizes to 20 percent of room capacity exempt classrooms. Years of budget cuts to education have already ballooned class sizes, with 30 or more students routinely packed into classrooms. As a result of relaxed or nonexistent guidelines and years of budget cuts, there is a lack of mask-wearing among students and staff, no social distancing, and no proper disinfecting in reopened schools. Some districts refuse to test students for COVID-19, with children who report to the nurse being sent back into the classrooms.
Los Angeles school district uses COVID-19 testing to accelerate back-to-school drive - The Los Angeles Unified School District—the second largest in the country with more than 775,000 students, teachers and support staff—recently announced that it had finished its trial phase of mass coronavirus testing and would begin implementing larger scale testing in preparation for a return to in-person learning as early as November. Once completed, LAUSD is expected to become the first school district in the country to test all students and staff for COVID-19. Underscoring the rushed and reckless character of the testing program, a pilot program involving up to 100,000 special needs children will be sent back into classrooms later this month, while athletic teams will begin tryouts and practices on November 2. Children and staff in early education and elementary schools will be the first to receive testing, with the district expanding to older students over the coming weeks. Families will be notified by their respective school principals when it’s time to be tested, and results are expected to be available within 24 to 36 hours. The stated intent of the program is to establish a COVID-19 infection rate baseline and to perform a second round of testing soon after to determine changes in infection rates against the baseline result. The district also announced it will be making use of the Microsoft “Daily Pass” app, which essentially functions like an electronic ticket on a smart phone. Using the app, only those students and staff who have been cleared as healthy will be allowed to enter school premises. The drive to reopen Los Angeles schools is part of the larger, reckless drive to reopen the economy regardless of the consequences for the population. Los Angeles County alone has already had more than 277,000 COVID-19 cases, with 6,709 deaths as of today. Once schools are open, these numbers will rise exponentially, especially with openings occurring in the midst of the autumn and winter seasons.
Tennessee educator speaks out on unsafe conditions in schools - Following the recent comments made by Tennessee’s Republican governor, Bill Lee, in which he praised the “very strong safety measures” in place for in-person classes during the pandemic, an educator in Rutherford County, Tennessee, has spoken to the World Socialist Web Site and revealed the reality of conditions she and her colleagues are facing. Rutherford County is one of the fastest growing counties in Tennessee, in part due to the soaring housing costs in nearby Davidson County (Nashville), with the number of residents rising from 262,604 residents in 2010 to an estimated 332,285 in 2019, according to US Census data. Murfreesboro, the county seat, is “Tennessee’s fastest growing major city and one of the fastest growing cities in the country,” according to Homesnacks.com. It is the home of the state’s second-largest university, Middle Tennessee State University, with nearly 20,000 undergraduate students. The Rutherford County school district has 46,303 students, while Murfreesboro city schools have 9,000 students. Shortly after Rutherford County reopened its schools, some 1,500 students were quarantined due to COVID-19 symptoms or having been exposed to someone infected with the virus. Despite this, the county has refused to move entirely to online learning. Describing the situation, the teacher commented: “It is clear that they [politicians and school administrators] want the schools to remain open at all costs. They don’t care who is going to be harmed. “I spoke with the nurse at my school, who keeps track of all the kids that are quarantined. She told me that we had 80 kids with COVID throughout the school and six of them tested positive in one week. I had to ask when they are going to close the school, but that hasn’t happened. Instead they are keeping it open, and I have taken it upon myself to get tested for COVID every two weeks. “It is clear that the principal wants an illusion of normality. But a few weeks ago the principal had tested positive for COVID, and the assistant principal was quarantined. Shouldn’t we have closed down then?”
As COVID-19 infection rates skyrocket, hundreds of Missouri schoolchildren quarantined - On Thursday, Missouri reported more than 1,500 new COVID-19 cases and the greatest number of hospitalizations since the start of the pandemic. Neighboring Illinois reported the highest daily confirmed new cases, 3,059, since the state’s peak in May. Despite the sharp rise in cases, hours are being cut for Missouri’s COVID-19 information hotline. It will continue to operate seven days a week, but new hours effective Oct. 1 are 7 a.m. to 9 p.m., down from 24 hours a day. Furthermore, Oct. 10 will be the last day Missouri residents qualify for extended unemployment benefits, which the state has cut even as long term unemployed figures rise due to the economic impact of the pandemic. The entire state is considered a “red zone” for COVID-19. The rate of new cases and positive tests in the state was one of the highest in the country for September. Despite this, Republican Governor Mike Parson refuses to implement further restrictions or impose mask mandates. While the state recently launched a COVID-19 dashboard that tallies statistics including infections and deaths in each region, the Department of Health and Senior Services announced that it will no longer provide daily updates on social media of COVID-19 spread. The DHSS was previously giving daily updates on Facebook and Twitter. The new dashboard reports numbers that are three days old. It shows seven-day averages for hospitalizations instead of daily updates. This will make it more difficult to spot the emergence of hot spots and plan effective responses to virus spread. The White House task force has taken note of the situation in Missouri and warned that it is in a dangerous position to see increased rates of infections and deaths through this fall and winter. Jefferson County, a rural portion of the St. Louis region, has in total nearly 4,600 positive cases reported and 65 deaths. Governor Parson has returned to the State Capitol in Jefferson City as of this Monday after announcing that he and First Lady Teresa Parson tested positive on Sept. 23. Four of the governor’s aides had also tested positive. As is the case through the US, the bipartisan policy of reopening schools and businesses is driving the outbreak in Missouri. As of this week 499 students have been quarantined in the Fort Zumwalt School District in St. Charles County after being exposed to the virus.
Three people associated with local school districts have died recently with Coronavirus -- KJAS News learned Thursday that three people associated with three local school districts have recently died with Coronavirus. Jasper County Judge Mark Allen says that the deaths include an unnamed female school teacher at Evadale Elementary School, along with Buna ISD School Board Member Shad Skinner, who died Saturday at the age of 44, and also an unnamed Kirbyville CISD female cafeteria worker, who Judge Allen said is believed to have lived in Newton County. Meanwhile, Evadale ISD officials say all campuses have been closed so that they can be thoroughly cleaned and classes are scheduled to resume on Monday. Judge Allen said as of Thursday the official number of Coronavirus deaths in Jasper County had increased to 26, up just 1 from 25 on Monday. However, Judge Allen noted that it takes several days for the State of Texas tally the numbers in their updates.
Chicago teacher dies from COVID-19 after visits to school, family says - A Chicago teacher has died from COVID-19 after making several visits to her school — including to hand out academic supplies to parents, her family said.First-grade teacher Olga Quiroga, 58, started suffering cold-like symptoms last month after multiple trips to Funston Elementary School, the Chicago Sun-Times reported.“These schools are not properly equipped, they’re not ready,” said her daughter, Giovanna Quiroga. “My mom, it took one time to be in that building to contract it.”Her mother tried to continue to teach her students virtually despite suffering from a bad cough and fatigue, the outlet reported.But soon, her health began to rapidly deteriorate and she was brought to the emergency room.“The nurses literally just snatched her away from me,” Giovanna said. “And ever since Sept. 11, she was in the intensive care unit. She just never came home.”Olga died on Thursday — just one day after her birthday — following a three-week battle with the virus, the outlet reported. Her family is now urging Chicago Public Schools to pull the brakes on any plans to reopen schools — insisting that Olga’s death is proof that they’re not safe.
Arizona teacher speaks on the death of her colleague from COVID-19 and contracting the virus herself - The WSWS spoke with Angela Skillings, a second grade teacher in Winkelman, Arizona, who was one of three teachers sharing a room who all contracted COVID-19 in June while teaching virtual summer school. Skillings and her colleagues Kim Byrd and Jena Martinez-Inzunza, along with their families, became infected. Byrd tragically succumbed to the virus in June. Ever since, Skillings has strongly advocated for schools to remain closed until the pandemic is contained. Skillings has been teaching for 17 years, and this August began her 14th year at Hayden-Winkelman Unified School District. She teaches second grade at Leonor Hambly K-8 school, one of two schools in the district in Winkelman, Arizona, a small town southeast of Phoenix. The district serves about 300 K-12 students from Winkelman and surrounding communities. Skillings, Byrd, and Martinez-Inzunza were in a K-2 grade level band and began teaching students virtually from their school site on June 8. The teachers shared a classroom and worked together each morning for the first week. Skillings described how she and her coworkers were hyper-diligent about staying safe, maintained well over six feet of distancing, wore masks, and religiously washed and sanitized their hands. On June 14, Skillings was notified that Kim Byrd was taken to the hospital, put on a ventilator and later that evening tested positive for COVID-19. Two days later, Skillings started showing symptoms of COVID-19, and Martinez-Inzunza followed suit the next day. Skillings would then receive a positive test result on Thursday, June 18, and Martinez-Inzunza tested positive on Tuesday, June 23. During the second week of summer school, both Skillings and Martinez-Inzunza continued teaching from home despite feeling terribly ill from the virus. Skillings described this experience, saying, “I texted my colleague saying ‘I feel like death has hit me.’ But we still pushed through it because we had students sitting in front of us. That’s what teachers do, we have always sacrificed for our students. It was the hardest four days, knowing Kim was already on the ventilator and she had tested positive, and we were sick. Our students had made get-well cards for her, the parents would send us pictures that we sent to Kim’s husband… Little did we know she wasn’t going to survive.” After Byrd’s death, her entire family tested positive for the virus, including her two-year-old granddaughter. Her brother, Roy Chavez, a substitute teacher in a neighboring school district, would also die three weeks later. A staggering nine out of the total 60 staff members in the district had contracted the virus in June and July, prior to kids showing up on campus. Three months have passed since Byrd’s tragic death, and hundreds of teachers and students across the US have now lost their lives to COVID-19 in the seven months since the onset of the pandemic. Arizona has reported a total of 219,763 cases and 5,693 deaths. There have been multiple outbreaks at schools since they began reopening in August throughout the state, leading to temporary school shutdowns and quarantines of students and staff. Last week, the entire varsity football team at Cactus Shadows High School in Cave Creek was placed under quarantine after four of its players tested positive for COVID-19.
Appalachian State University faculty and students demand action after death of healthy student from COVID-19 - COVID-19 infections continue to rise at Appalachian State University (ASU) in Boone, North Carolina in the wake of the tragic death of Chad Dorrill, a healthy 19-year-old student who died September 28. Dorrill began developing flu-like symptoms in early September. He decided to return home, where he tested positive for the virus on September 7. After quarantining for 10 days, and being cleared by his doctor, he returned to school. Soon afterward, he began suffering serious neurological problems after the COVID-19 virus triggered his immune system to attack his nerve cells, leading to his death. An autopsy is still pending on Dorrill. Since his death, students and teachers at ASU have spoken out against the inaction of the university administration. Since late September student cases have jumped dramatically from 96 to 229. COVID-19 clusters, defined here as five or more cases confirmed in a two-week period, have been reported across six different residence halls and over a dozen fraternities and sororities, according to reports from local news network WFMY. The school’s football team now has 21 active cases confirmed. At least one game has been postponed since Thursday. The recent success of the team, appearing in five nationally televised bowl games since 2015, in part spurred the university to pursue an “aggressive enrollment target” of 20,000 students by this year. This “achievement” has been criticized by sections of the faculty who point out that the university was wholly unprepared for an influx of students on and off campus amid a global pandemic.
California's Prop 16 would allow discrimination against women -- Proposition 16 seeks to repeal the provision of the California Constitution that prohibits discrimination and preferential treatment on the basis of race and sex in public education, employment and contracting. That provision was put there by Prop 209 in 1996. Why does such apparent discrimination exist? For whatever reason, including the removal of former barriers to male occupations, women appear to fare better on many traditional measures of high school achievement. Data show that there are more girls graduating at the top of their high-school classes and that girls are more likely to take Advanced Placement classes. Under federal law, such discrimination is legal at private colleges and universities: Title IX, the landmark anti-sex-discrimination federal statute, contains an exception that permits single-sex colleges such as Smith and Wellesley to continue to exist. In California, Prop 209 gives rejected female applicants a valuable additional tool to get redress in court. Notably, it’s easier for a civil rights plaintiff to get into court for a Prop 209 violation than for a Title IX violation. Abigail Fisher spent years litigating to prove that her race discrimination college admissions claim belonged in federal court; California law lets plaintiffs avoid those hurdles.The range of persons who can bring admissions discrimination suits in California state court is also wider. In California, Prop 209 can be enforced by taxpayer suits (any taxpayer can sue to remedy the injury to the public fisc) ― or by citizen suits (which can be brought by any California citizen to require a governmental body to perform a public duty).Having both federal and state laws that prohibit government discrimination ― even if there is overlap in the conduct they prohibit ― is important to maximize the chance that equal protection violations are caught and corrected.Are California colleges and universities discriminating in admissions right now based on sex? It’s difficult to say for sure because there has been little serious effort to collect relevant data. The data I found online about male versus female admissions rates at 20 of California’s most selective public colleges show that most are accepting women at equal or higher rates than men, which suggests compliance with Prop 209.UCLA is already 58 percent female and 42 percent male. Cal State Bakersfield and Cal State Fresno are both 63 percent female and 37 percent male. Most other selective California public colleges and universities also are over 50 percent female, albeit by smaller margins. Will at least some of these schools be tempted toward discrimination to obtain more even gender balance? They would be freer to act on that temptation if Prop 16 passes. Why encourage them? Some prominent feminists have come out in favor of Prop 16. They appear to be oblivious to the likely consequences in terms of denying California’s women the opportunity to attend the college of their choice. Voters shouldn’t make the same error. They should think carefully about the admissions discrimination implications for women of Prop 16 before they cast their ballots.
A student says test proctoring AI flagged her as cheating when she read a question out loud. Others say the software could have more dire consequences. - As college students adapt to the new realities of distance learning amid the coronavirus pandemic, some students say they're struggling to navigate the demands of exam proctoring and "anti-cheating" software. Programs that record students during exams have been widely implemented as educators attempt to curb academic dishonesty — but the test monitoring software has seemingly had unintended consequences from some students. One economics major is going viral on TikTok after expressing her frustration with a remote test-taking situation. In an emotional video posted last week, the college student said that ProctorU, the exam proctoring program used by her university, had flagged some of her behavior during an exam as suspicious. As a result, she claimed, her professor had given her a zero on the assessment. "So, just to let you know how online school and college is going, I just took an exam that I studied really, really hard for, and I got a B on it. And it's a pretty difficult exam, so a B is pretty good," TikTok user @_.daynuh._, who goes by Dana Jo the app, said through tears. "And my professor is giving me a zero, because the Review+ said I was talking when I was just, like, re-reading the question so I could better understand it." The video racked up 3 million views in less than a week and viewers flooded the comments section of the video with support for the distraught college student and condemnation of the professor. "That is so ableist of them," one TikTok user wrote. "I am so so sorry that you had to deal with this." Popular YouTuber and comedian Alonzo Lerone commented on the video writing, "What's your professor's name? I just wanna talk." Some students say they've been having issues with proctoring software simply because of the color of their skin. Twitter user @uhreeb said that ExamSoft, a monitoring tool used during the Bar Exam, directed him to "sit directly in front of a lighting source" after he experienced facial recognition difficulties. He said he was already in a well-lit room. Law student Kiana Caton told Venture Beat that she plans to shine a light directly in her face as she takes the California bar exam remotely in October. Caton, who is Black, adopted the measure at the suggestion of other dark-skinned students, the outlet explained, in order to ensure that her skin tone did not raise red flags to ExamSoft. Facial recognition technology, generally, has recently come under fire for its history of misidentifying people of color. A 2019 study conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) found that in a "one-to-one matching" database search, facial recognition algorithms falsely identified African-American and Asian faces between 10 and 100 times more often than they falsely identified Caucasian faces.
How student loan forgiveness is altering consumer behavior - Student loans are now a perennial political hot potato and an entrenched economic challenge for young Americans. Politicians and the higher education industry have kicked the can down the road for so long that we can no longer ignore the effect student debt is having on Millennials’ ability to thrive in today’s unforgiving economic environment. No matter how you view the issue, student debt will continue to color our voting patterns and consumer behavior for decades to come. Politics aside, let’s talk about how we got here and what, if anything, can be done to ensure that student debt doesn’t become a weapon of mass economic destruction. Additionally, I want to share what you should do if you find yourself shouldering a large amount of student debt in a rapidly evolving policy landscape. Even if you don’t carry any student debt, it’s a very pervasive problem. It’s likely that your children, neighbors, employees or friends are struggling to cover their minimum interest payments and are seeing their balances grow because of sky-high interest rates. Many of these debts defy individual economic realities and will likely never be collected. Unfortunately, taxpayers will be on the hook for these staggering losses. This dismal fiscal outlook is why some believe student loan forgiveness is the solution to this debt quagmire. Opposition to those measures quickly points out the obvious moral hazard and the simple fact that forgiveness doesn’t address future generations who will inevitably fall into the same debt trap. In sum, there is no easy way out for anyone, and the specter of student debt will continue to cast a shadow on our national economic prospects. The government appears to be more willing to address the crisis in a piecemeal, often haphazard fashion that doesn’t seem to be getting closer to a solution. But if you’re a borrower, you’re going to have to follow a rapidly changing reality if you want to get a grip on your economic future and help dig yourself out a student debt hole. For student borrowers who have federally held loans, you’ve probably noticed that all of your loans are currently in forbearance because of the ongoing pandemic. That means you don’t have to pay a red cent toward your loans, and your principal balance isn’t incurring interest. President Trump has extended these measures until the end of the year. Private borrowers received no such relief, meaning that people will probably rethink refinancing their public debt into private debt, which had become extremely popular in recent years. A payoff strategy for individual borrowers is now beginning to defy the basic rules of personal finance. Individual sacrifice may be fruitless as the expectation of some sort of forgiveness is beginning to alter consumer behavior permanently. For some, these changes are leading people to deprioritize paying their debt. I know of several people using the pandemic grace period to save up for a down payment on a house, or are simply living beyond their means for the time being. For others, it means keeping high-interest federally-backed debt that may be forgiven instead of refinancing into lower-interest private debt.
Latest Nobel Prize in Chemistry Demonstrates How the US Patent Office Screws Inventors - Congratulations to University of California Professors Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier for winning the Novel Prize for the invention of CRISPR gene-editing technology. For those not in the know, CRISPR works as a word processor for DNA. Don’t like a gene where it is? Cut it out. Write in a new one. Even copy and paste. The possibilities of CRISPR are endless. Think of crops that grow in the desert with virtually no water. Genetic disease gone with the ease of selecting and deleting a bad sentence. OK – also think of perfect pets and, of course, designer babies. Want a kid with Brad Pitt’s looks and Einstein’s smarts: step right over here, young couple. So, these two brilliant professors hold the patent rights to CRISPR for mammals? Nah. That’d be a guy by the name of Feng Zhang at a place called the Broad Institute, some sort of public/private money-making endeavor co-founded by Harvard and MIT. Zhang who, you may ask, and why did the Nobel Price Committee – who (unlike the patent office) kinda’ know what they’re talking about – entire stiff this Zhang?That’s because, simplifying, while Doudna and Charpentier were working on the science and thinking through the ethics of designer babies, Zhang was thinking of dollar signs. They ran to the lab; he ran to the patent office. It’s not that Doudna and Charpentier didn’t think through modifying animals with their gene editor; they just didn’t submit it to the US Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) before the science and ethics were thought through.So Harvard and MIT and Zhang will gracefully share their ill-gotten patents for the pursuit of humanity, especially considering the University of California is a genuine non-profit government-run agency, right? Hell no! What are you, some type of Commie? They’re already running around working to gain “priority” rights to make further inventions likely trying to head off some other skank running to the USPTO, kinda’ like they did to obtain their ill-gotten patent in the first place.This is a good example of everything the patent laws are supposed to discourage and the American patent system run afoul. Which is pretty much how the system has worked since it was invented.
The Apple Watch Heart Monitor Sends Too Many People To the Doctor -The heart monitoring feature on the Apple Watch may lead to unnecessary health care visits, according to a new study published this week. Only around 10 percent of people who saw a doctor at the Mayo Clinic after noticing an abnormal pulse reading on their watch were eventually diagnosed with a cardiac condition.The finding shows that at-home health monitoring devices can lead to over-utilization of the health care system, said study author Heather Heaton, an assistant professor of emergency medicine at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, in an email to The Verge. That may be expensive for patients and for the system as a whole, and it may take up doctor and patient time unnecessarily.Heaton and the study team scanned patient health records at every Mayo Clinic site, including offices in Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa, for mentions of the term “Apple Watch” over a six-month period from December 2018 to April 2019. The window came just after Apple introduced a feature to detect abnormal heart rhythms and after publication of a study tracking how well the watches could detect atrial fibrillation.They found records of 264 patients who said their Apple Watches flagged a concerning heart rhythm. Of that group, 41 explicitly mentioned getting an alert from their watch (others may have had an alert, but it wasn’t mentioned specifically in their health record). Half of the patients already had a cardiac diagnosis, including 58 who’d been previously diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. About two-thirds had symptoms, including lightheadedness or chest pain.Only 30 patients in the study got a cardiac diagnosis after their doctors visit. Most of the concerning heart monitor data, then, were probably false positives, the study concluded. False positives, even though the patient ends up being healthy, can still cause problems: they can push patients to get unnecessary health care and cause stress and anxiety. Even people who don’t have symptoms, like some people in this study, may still feel the need to talk to a doctor about an abnormal flag on a device like an Apple Watch.
CDC Officially Acknowledges Airborne Transmission of Coronavirus - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has officially acknowledged that the new coronaviruscan be spread via airborne transmission."Today, CDC issued updated guidance to its How COVID-19 Spreads website, which includes information about the potential for airborne spread of the virus that causes COVID-19," the agency wrote Monday in a press release. By doing so, the CDC is finally catching up with what many health experts have been warning for months,NPR pointed out. The World Health Organization acknowledged airborne transmission in July after 239 scientists wrote a letter urging the organization to take airborne spread seriously. The U.S. agency seemed ready to accept airborne transmission last month, when it posted guidance saying that COVID-19 was most commonly spread "through respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols," as CBS News reported at the time. However, it quickly removed the update, saying it was draft language posted in error. Monday's updated guidance admits to airborne transmission once again, but says it is not the most common way the coronavirus spreads. "CDC continues to believe, based on current science, that people are more likely to become infected the longer and closer they are to a person with COVID-19," the agency wrote in the press release announcing the change. "Today's update acknowledges the existence of some published reports showing limited, uncommon circumstances where people with COVID-19 infected others who were more than 6 feet away or shortly after the COVID-19-positive person left an area. In these instances, transmission occurred in poorly ventilated and enclosed spaces that often involved activities that caused heavier breathing, like singing or exercise. Such environments and activities may contribute to the buildup of virus-carrying particles." In the updated guidance, the CDC compared the airborne transmission of COVID-19 to the spread of other diseases like tuberculosis and chicken pox.
Previous infection with other types of coronaviruses may lessen severity of COVID-19 -- Being previously infected with a coronaviruses that cause the "common cold" may decrease the severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infections, according to results of a new study. Led by researchers at Boston Medical Center and Boston University School of Medicine, the study also demonstrates that the immunity built up from previous non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections does not prevent individuals from getting COVID-19. Published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, the findings provide important insight into the immune response against SARS-CoV-2, which could have significant implications on COVID-19 vaccine development. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 200,000 deaths in the US, and more than one million globally. There is a growing body of research looking into specific ways that the SARS-CoV-2 virus impacts different populations, including why some people are infected and are asymptomatic, as well as what increases ones mortality as a result of infection. There are a number of vaccines under development in order to determine what type of vaccine (mRNA, viral vector) will be most effective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections. While SARS-CoV-2 is a relatively new pathogen, there are many other types of coronaviruses that are endemic in humans and can cause the "common cold" and pneumonia. These coronaviruses share some genetic sequences with SARS-CoV-2, and the immune responses from these coronaviruses can cross-react against SARS-CoV-2.
Severe COVID-19 infection linked to overactive immune cells - Samples from the lungs of patients show a runaway immune system reaction could be one mechanism behind severe COVID-19 cases. When infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, many people experience mild and moderate symptoms, but for some people infection can be severe or fatal. Scientists are urgently seeking to understand how COVID-19 can become severe. Now, a study led by Imperial College London researchers has revealed how an overreaction of part of the immune system could be linked to severe cases of COVID-19. When we are infected with pathogens like bacteria and viruses, our bodies mount several types of immune system response. One of the major components are T cells, which come in several different forms that coordinate the immune response, from killing infected cells to recruiting more T cells to the fight. Sometimes, our immune system overreacts to invaders, for example during an allergic reaction, resulting in T cells killing normal, healthy cells and causing tissue damage. However, there is a 'brake mechanism' that should kick in, causing T cells to reduce their activity and calming inflammation. The new research, published today in Frontiers in Immunology, shows how this brake mechanism does not appear to kick in in severe COVID-19 cases.
Group Most Likely to Get Covid-19 Is Least Likely to Die From It – WSJ = It isn’t clear whether President Trump, who is 74 years old, was infected with the coronavirusby a 31-year-old political adviser—but if he was, the transmission route from young to old would follow an international trend.Young people account for the majority of known Covid-19 infections, but the elderly account for most of the deaths.“It’s a social moral dilemma,” said Mun Sim Lai, a population-affairs officer with the United Nations who has examined the trend. “Young people get the virus and don’t die, but they are the ones spreading it to old people. This is true over the world.”Dr. Lai analyzed data from 55 countries, including the U.S., and found that through Sept. 1, people who were 65 and older represented just 12% of confirmed coronavirus cases but 66% of deaths.Those who were 44 and younger accounted for 60% of known cases but only 7% of deaths.In the countries Dr. Lai examined, 11.7 million people younger than age 65 had been infected with Covid-19 and around 169,400 died. In comparison, 1.6 million older people had been infected and around 331,000 died.That doesn’t mean younger people have gotten a free pass.While the raw number of deaths caused by Covid-19 is low for ages 25 to 44, mortality has increased by around 25% this year compared with the previous five years, according to data provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Even though it’s a relatively small number of deaths, it’s a big impact,” said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality-statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, a division of the CDC. “It’s an additional fourth of what’s normal.” Another way to think about the impact is to consider how many people were expected to die this year based on historical data versus how many people have actually died. In the U.S., there were 10 deaths for every 10,000 people ages 25 to 44 on average in the first 32 weeks of the year from 2015 through 2019, Under normal circumstances, she would anticipate about the same mortality rate this year.“But what has happened,” she said, “is there were about 12 deaths for every 10,000 people ages 25 to 44 years old. The absolute risk for dying for that group is about two deaths per 10,000 people more than we would expect.”
Hospitalized COVID-19 patients are younger, healthier than influenza patients - Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were more likely male, younger, and, in both the US and Spain, had fewer comorbidities and lower medication use than hospitalized influenza patients according to a recent study published by the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) community. OHDSI has established an international network of researchers and observational health databases with a central coordinating center housed at the Department of Biomedical Informatics at Columbia University. This global network study, which included more than 34,000 COVID-19 patients from across three continents, is intended to provide greater detail about the characteristics of patients suffering from the disease, and also to help inform decision-making around the care of hospitalized patients. Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were more typically male in the US and Spain, but more often female in South Korea. The ages of patients varied, but in Spain and the US, the most common age groups were between 60 to 75. Patients hospitalized with influenza were typically older than those hospitalized with COVID-19, and more likely to be female. Many of the patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were seen to have other health conditions. For example, the prevalence of hypertensive disorder ranged from 24% to 70%, diabetes from 13% to 43%, and asthma from 4% to 15%, across data sources. Despite this, however, when compared to patients hospitalized with influenza in recent years, those with COVID-19 were seen to generally be healthier. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease and dementia were all more common among those hospitalized with influenza compared to those hospitalized with COVID-19.
Pregnant women are likely to have mild covid-19 cases but suffer prolonged symptoms, study finds - One of the largest studies of its kind suggests that most pregnant women who become infected with the coronavirus will have mild cases but suffer prolonged symptoms that may linger for two months or longer in some cases.The study, published in the journal Obstetrics and Gynecology, found that most women who participated had mild cases of covid-19 — a finding consistent with previous studies. Among the nearly 600 women followed, only 5 percent were hospitalized and 2 percent were admitted to intensive care units.Despite the mildness of their cases, 25 percent of the participants continued to experience symptoms eight weeks after becoming sick. The median length of symptoms was 37 days. Although pregnancy is known to cause major changes to the immune system, the length of time for continuing symptoms was surprising, said co-principal investigator Vanessa Jacoby, vice chair of research in the obstetrics, gynecology and reproductive sciences department at the University of California at San Francisco. “We know in most studies in the general population that if you have mild covid-19, usually your symptoms go away within the first one to two weeks,” she said. “But that is not what we found if you are pregnant.” Months into the coronavirus pandemic, many questions remain unanswered about how the virus impacts pregnant women and their babies, including its long-term effects, said David Jaspan, chair of the obstetrics and gynecology department at the Einstein Healthcare Network in Philadelphia, who was not involved in the study. One complication is that symptoms of the virus may overlap with symptoms of a normal pregnancy. Another, Jaspan said, is that fear of being in a waiting room and being exposed to the virus has meant fewer patients are showing up for postpartum visits.
Three Quarters of People with SARS-CoV-2 Infection are Asymptomatic: Analysis of English Household Survey Data --To reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, it is important to identify those who are infectious. However, little is known about what proportion of infectious people are asymptomatic and potential “silent” transmitters. We evaluated the value of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker for SARS-CoV-2 infection from a representative English survey. We used data from the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot study. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, the proportion of asymptomatic cases (1 – sensitivity), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker of infection using results of the SARS-CoV-2 test as the “gold standard”. In total, there were 36,061 individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 test between 26 April and 27 June 2020. Of these, 625 (1.7%) reported symptoms on the day of the test. There were 115 (0.32%) with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Of the 115, there were 27 (23.5%) who were symptomatic and 88 (76.5%) who were asymptomatic on the day of the test. Focusing on those with specific symptoms (cough, and/or fever, and/or loss of taste/smell), there were 158 (0.43%) with such symptoms on the day of the test. Of the 115 with a positive SARS-CoV-2, there were 16 (13.9%) reporting symptoms. In contrast, 99 (86.1%) did not report specific symptoms on the day of the test. The PPV for all symptoms was 4.3% and for the specific symptoms 10.1%. The specificity and NPV of symptoms were above 98%. COVID-19 symptoms are poor markers of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 76.5% of this random sample who tested positive reported no symptoms, and 86.1% reported none of those specific to COVID-19. A more widespread testing programme is necessary to capture “silent” transmission and potentially prevent and reduce future outbreaks.
A DARPA-Funded Implantable Biochip to Detect COVID-19 Could Hit Markets by 2021 - As early as 2006, DARPA was already researching how to identify viral, upper respiratory pathogens through its Predicting Health and Disease (PHD) program, which led to the creation of the agency’s Biological Technologies Office (BTO), as reported by Whitney Webb in a May article for The Last American Vagabond. In 2014, DARPA’s BTO launched its “In Vivo Nanoplatforms” (IVN) program, which researches implantable nanotechnologies, leading to the development of ‘hydrogel’. Hydrogel is a nanotechnology whose inventor early on boasted that “If [it] pans out, with approval from FDA, then consumers could get the sensors implanted in their core to measure their levels of glucose, oxygen, and lactate.” This contact lens-like material requires a special injector to be introduced under the skin where it can transmit light-based digital signals through a wireless network like 5G. Once firmly implanted inside the body, human cells are at the mercy of any mRNA program delivered via this substrate, unleashing a nightmare of possibilities. It is, perhaps, the first true step towards full-on transhumanism; a “philosophy” that is in vogue with many powerful and influential people, such as Google’s Ray Kurzweil and Eric Schmidt and whose proponents see the fusion of technology and biology as an inevitable consequence of human progress. The private company created to market this technology, that allows for biological processes to be controlled remotely and opens the door to the potential manipulation of our biological responses and, ultimately, our entire existence, is called Profusa Inc and its operations are funded with millions from NIH and DARPA. In March, the company was quietly inserted into the crowded COVID-19 bazaar in March 2020, when it announced aninjectable biochip for the detection of viral respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. In July, a preliminary report funded by Fauci’s NIAID and the NIH on an mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 was published in The New England Journal of Medicine, concluding that mRNA-1273 vaccine. provided by Moderna for the study, “induced anti–SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified,” and supported “further development of this vaccine.” A month earlier, the NIH had claimed a joint stake in Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, citing a contract signed in December, 2019, stipulating that the “mRNA coronavirus vaccine candidates [are] developed and jointly owned” by both parties. Moderna disputes the federal government’s position, stating that the company “has a broad owned and licensed IP estate” and is “not aware of any IP that would prevent us from commercializing our product candidates, including mRNA-1273.”
With 1m dead, are we any better at treating Covid-19? - Tending to Covid-19 patients in the early days of the pandemic, Leora Horwitz felt like a doctor from the 18th century, desperately trying to discover more about a new disease to learn how to stop people from dying.“We couldn’t tell how quickly people were likely to deteriorate, what kinds of deterioration they would have . . . or when they were out of the woods,” says the clinician-researcher at NYU Langone, an academic medical centre in New York. “We had no idea.”This week, the coronavirus pandemic hit a haunting milestone, with an official death toll of 1m worldwide — almost half of those in the US, India and Brazil. The rapid spread of the virus has triggered fears among some scientific and medical experts that millions more will die.On Friday it was announced that Donald Trump, US president, had tested positive for the virus. Yet the death rate — how many people who have contracted coronavirus die — may be falling because of improved care, according to the World Health Organization. Countries grappling with a new surge in infections hope that doctors have grasped how to keep more patients alive. The global survival rate for people hospitalised with Covid-19 has increased from 66 per cent in March to 84 per cent in August, according to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium.Dr Horwitz says the contrast between New York’s wards in late March and today is like “night and day”. Even accounting for the demographic differences between the patients being treated at her hospital, she found their chances of survival were 22 percentage points higher in August than in March in research that has yet to be peer-reviewed.But some scientists remain sceptical about whether the death rate is actually falling, questioning the quality of the data. They argue that if it is coming down it has more to do with the rise in younger people getting sick. “The biggest question that’s out there right now — or at least one of them is [whether] the mortality rate from Covid-19 is actually dropping, or is it just apparently dropping,” says Jonathan Slotkin, chief medical officer at Contigo Health, part of Premier, a group of over 4,000 US hospitals.
Why Don’t We Study Countries That Have Had COVID-19 Success? - - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - I’m looking at countries based on the number of deaths recorded – from 105 in Hong Kong for a population of 7 million; to 35 in Vietnam for its population of 100 million; to 7 in Taiwan for a population of 24 million; to 25 in New Zealand for a population of 5 million. I am focusing on death counts rather than cases. Why? Governments are following different rules for reporting their COVID -19 cases, including only reporting symptomatic cases. Now, we know most – if not all- governments have a propensity to lie. This includes about reporting the number of Covid-19 deaths downwards as well. But in the era of social media, it is much more difficult to manipulate death figures. Not impossible but difficult. So I am paying attention to those, as I think they are more or less accurate – although I wouldn’t hazard any guesses as to the margin of error.
- Hong Kong. Regular readers know I have written extensively about Hong Kong’s success, in several posts, relaying on the expertise of my Oxford friend, Canadian medical doctor Sarah Borwein, who currently practices in Hong Kong and is a veteran of the SARS crisis from her timepracticing in Beijing. I’m not going to repeat points I made in those previous posts, except to say early and comprehensive mask wearing; excellent widespread access to good, affordable medical care; and comprehensive contact tracing were all part of the mix. Hong Kong has never had to lock down completely, but it has more or less sealed its borders. Even Hong Kong residents have faced barriers to their return, and when they did make it home, they were immediately tested. If necessary, they were subject to a quarantine.
- Vietnam. For months, this country of 100 million people, reported no COVID-19 deaths, until it was hit with a second wave. Despite being a relatively poor country, Vietnam has benefitted from a well-developed public health system, combined with tight border controls, its testing policy, extensive contact tracing, and its quarantine policy. The country has made extensive investments in public health, and these have paid off in the COVID-19 crisis. According to Emerging COVID-19 success story: Vietnam’s commitment to containment:
- Taiwan. The Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has prepared extensive domentattion outlining the reasons for Taiwan’s success in battling COVID-19, The Taiwan Model for Combating COVID-19: Taiwan has been able to contain the pandemic and minimize its impact on people’s daily lives. The transparency and honesty with which Taiwan has implemented prevention measures is a democratic model of excellence in fighting disease. This webpage shares the Taiwan Model for combating the pandemic, as well as links to related international media coverage and video clips. The materials found here also help explain the different aspects of Taiwan’s epidemic prevention work, and how Taiwan is helping the international community. The country rigorously controlled its borders, according to the Toronto Star, Quarantine and COVID testing are key to Taiwan’s border reopening:
- New Zealand. One major advantage NZ has it’s at the end of the earth and shares no land borders with other counties. So it was able to quickly isolate itself. Its cases have come from overseas. The Ministry of Health (MoH) has an aggressive contact tracing program, for two types of contacts: close contacts and casual contacts. According to the Ministry of Health’s online circular, Contact tracing for COVID-19: If you have been identified as a close contact of someone with COVID-19, you can expect to be contacted by the Ministry of Health or your local district health board’s public health unit (PHU).
Covid: Vaccine will ‘not return life to normal in spring’ BBC. Even an effective coronavirus vaccine will not return life to normal in spring, a group of leading scientists has warned.A vaccine is often seen as the holy grail that will end the pandemic.But a report, from researchers brought together by the Royal Society, said we needed to be "realistic" about what a vaccine could achieve and when.They said restrictions may need to be "gradually relaxed" as it could take up to a year to roll the vaccine out.More than 200 vaccines to protect against the virus are being developed by scientists around the world in a process that is taking place at unprecedented speed."A vaccine offers great hope for potentially ending the pandemic, but we do know that the history of vaccine development is littered with lots of failures," said Dr Fiona Culley, from the National Heart and Lung Institute at Imperial College London.There is optimism, including from the UK government's scientific advisers, that some people may get a vaccine this year and mass vaccination may start early next year. However, the Royal Society report warns it will be a long process."Even when the vaccine is available it doesn't mean within a month everybody is going to be vaccinated, we're talking about six months, nine months... a year," said Prof Nilay Shah, head of chemical engineering at Imperial College London. "There's not a question of life suddenly returning to normal in March."The report said there were still "enormous" challenges ahead. Some of the experimental approaches being taken - such as RNA vaccines - have never been mass produced before. There are questions around raw materials - both for the vaccine and glass vials - and refrigerator capacity, with some vaccines needing storage at minus 80C. Prof Shah estimates vaccinating people would have to take place at a pace, 10 times faster than the annual flu campaign and would be a full-time job for up to 30,000 trained staff. "I do worry, is enough thinking going into the whole system?" he says. Early trial data has suggested that vaccines are triggering an immune response, but studies have not yet shown if this is enough to either offer complete protection or lessen the symptoms of Covid.
Home-Made Covid Vaccine Appeared to Work, but Questions Remained Josiah Zayner’s plan was simple: replicate a Covid-19 vaccine that had worked in monkeys, test it on himself and then livestream the experiment online over a period of months. Now, that improbable bid is over. Around the world, dozens of Covid-19 vaccines are in human clinical trials involving tens of thousands of people. While vaccines typically take years to develop, U.S. scientists are racing to produce one in months through Operation Warp Speed. But Zayner, a one-time NASA researcher who left the scientific establishment in favor of engaging in do-it-yourself experiments, bet that by working outside regulatory structures, he could test a vaccine even more quickly and certainly more cheaply by giving it to himself. Instead, Zayner discovered, testing a vaccine is far more complicated than he had imagined. Even though his experiment yielded a promising result, Zayner found too many unanswered questions to say that it worked. For one, it wasn’t clear whether antibodies he found in his own body in extremely tiny measures before the experiment began made a difference. Zayner is infamous for attention-grabbing experiments in which he uses himself as a guinea pig. He self- injected the gene-editing tool Crispr while giving a talk at a San Francisco biotech conference, and performed his own fecal matter transplant. Such stunts have made him an informal figurehead for a growing movement of do-it-yourself scientists emboldened by advancements in technology that have made such feats as engineering biology increasingly simple. Zayner believes such cutting-edge science should be accessible to anyone, and that democratizing science could help curb exorbitant drug prices and speed science along. In June, he told Bloomberg News that Covid-19 presented "the perfect opportunity" to show just what biohackers can do. Now, his message is decidedly different: “Human beings — their biology is so complex,” he said in a recent interview. “The results are going to be messy. The experiments are going to be messy. So you test 30,000 people so that the messiness kind of averages out.” As the U.S. rushes to bring a vaccine to market far faster than has ever been done, Zayner said he has discovered why the long, slow process of clinical trials shouldn’t be rushed. A promising early stage result is just that: promising.
Ensuring Uptake of Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 - Covid-19 continues to exact a heavy toll, development of a vaccine appears the most promising means of restoring normalcy to civil life. Perhaps no scientific breakthrough is more eagerly anticipated. But bringing a vaccine to market is only half the challenge; also critical is ensuring a high enough vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity. Concerningly, a recent poll found that only 49% of Americans planned to get vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.1 One option for increasing vaccine uptake is to require it. Mandatory vaccination has proven effective in ensuring high childhood immunization rates in many high-income countries. However, except for influenza vaccination of health care workers, mandates have not been widely used for adults. Although a vaccine remains months to years away, developing a policy strategy to ensure uptake takes time. We offer a framework that states can apply now to help ensure uptake of the vaccine when it becomes available — including consideration of when a mandate might become appropriate. Our approach is guided by lessons from U.S. experiences with vaccines for the 1976 “swine flu,” H1N1 influenza, smallpox, and human papillomavirus (HPV). We believe that six substantive criteria should be met before a state imposes a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine mandate (see box). The first is the existence of evidence that Covid-19 is inadequately controlled in the state by other measures, such as testing, contact tracing, and isolation and quarantine — as indicated by sustained, troubling trends in new cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. The second criterion is that the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), after reviewing the safety and efficacy evidence, has recommended vaccination for the persons who would be covered by a mandate. The third criterion is that there is an adequate supply of vaccine to cover the groups for which a mandate is being considered. Initially, global demand for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will outstrip supply, making the salient question not who must get them but who will be granted access to them. The fourth criterion is that there has been transparent communication of the best available evidence about the vaccine’s safety and efficacy.4 The fifth criterion is that the government has put in place certain support mechanisms for persons required to receive the vaccine. Lessons from past vaccination campaigns suggest that a generous compensation program for people who have serious vaccine side effects should be a centerpiece of these efforts. The last criterion is that vaccination mandates are imposed only after a time-limited trial of voluntary vaccine provision has proved unsuccessful.
Will 500,000 Sharks Be Slaughtered for a COVID-19 Cure? - Scientists are racing to create a cure for COVID-19, but the toll on sharks might be irreparable. Conservationists estimate that half a million of the predators may be killed to supply the world with acoronavirus vaccine when one is developed. Shark liver oil is primarily made of squalene, which helps regulate a shark's buoyancy in deep water. The compound is also found in plants, humans and other animals. Used as a moisturizing agent in cosmetics, squalene also creates a stronger immune response in vaccines, making them more effective, reportedScience Times.Squalene has been used in flu vaccines since 1997, Boston 25 News reported, and has an "excellent safety record" according to the CDC, Miami Herald reported. It could also help reduce the amount of vaccine needed per person, the Boston news report said.Shark Allies, an advocacy group fighting against shark overfishing, claims that five COVID-19 vaccine candidates use shark squalene; the California-based non-profit is petitioning the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Europe, China and all vaccine developers to omit the compound or find an alternative that doesn't require sharks.One British pharmaceutical that currently uses shark squalene in flu vaccines plans to manufacture a billion doses of the compound for potential use in coronavirus vaccines by May 2021, Sky News reported. VICEreported that roughly 3,000 sharks have to die to extract a single tonne of squalene."It's called harvesting, but really you're not growing it, you're taking it from the wild," Stefanie Brendl, executive director of Shark Allies, told Boston 25 News. "It's a limited resource."Shark Allies worries that the development and production of enough vaccines to create worldwide immunization to the novel coronavirus and future coronaviruses that are identified could carry "an immense ecological cost," VICE reported."It's something we need to get ahead of ASAP, because we are facing many years of vaccine production, for a global population, for many more coronavirus vaccines to come," Brendl told VICE. "The real danger is in what this can turn into in the future. A reliance on shark oil for a global vaccine — it's truly insane. A wild animal is not a reliable source and cannot sustain ongoing commercial pressure. [And] the overfishing of sharks globally is already at critical levels."
Two charged in Massachusetts nursing home catastrophe that left 76 veterans dead from COVID-19 - The Massachusetts state attorney general announced last month that two former leaders of a Holyoke veterans home are currently under indictment on charges of criminal neglect in relation to a coronavirus outbreak that led to 76 resident fatalities and more than a hundred positive COVID-19 cases. These deaths at the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home facility and the indictments handed down exemplify the stark failure of the US health care system in containing the spread of the disease in nursing facilities across the nation. Both indictments represent the first criminal case in the country brought against caretakers involved in nursing homes during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, the two individuals, Bennett Walsh and Dr. David Clinton, are facing felony charges and if convicted could face several years or even decades in prison. “We allege that the actions of these defendants during the COVID-19 outbreak at the facility put veterans at higher risk of infection and death and warrant criminal charges,” Healey said at a press conference. Just a day after the investigative report into the deaths was released, Clinton resigned from his post as chief medical officer of the facility, while Walsh had been placed on administrative leave on March 30 and was later fired after the state sent in an emergency response team to oversee the conditions within the resident home. Soldiers’ Home experienced a staggering spike in COVID-19 infections and deaths during the month of April when the pandemic was raging out of control throughout the Northeast US. By April 22, Soldiers’ Home had reported 56 deaths caused by the novel coronavirus and 92 residents testing positive. At least 81 confirmed infections among hospital staff had been reported by mid-April, making it the most extraordinary outbreak of any veteran’s facility in the country. Even before cases began piling up throughout the course of the month, the state-run facility had been placed under investigation in early April when the attorney general’s office said it had received a notice of “serious issues with COVID-19 infection control procedures.” While mass casualties rose at alarming rates, numerous nurses pointed to the unpreparedness and blatant disregard for safety precautions by hospital administrators as the cause of the spread of disease. Nurses revealed to the media that they were given little to no personal protective equipment and nothing was done to address dangerous staffing shortages.
‘So frustrating’: Doctors and nurses battle virus skeptics (AP) — Treating the sick and dying isn’t even the toughest part for nurse Amelia Montgomery as the coronavirus surges in her corner of red America.It’s dealing with patients and relatives who don’t believe the virus is real, refuse to wear masks and demand treatments like hydroxychloroquine,which President Donald Trump has championed even though experts say it is not effective against the scourge that has killed over 210,000 in the U.S.Montgomery finds herself, like so many other doctors and nurses, in a world where the politics of the crisis are complicating treatment efforts, with some people even resisting getting tested. It’s unclear how Trump’s bout with t virus will affect the situation, but some doctors aren’t optimistic. After a few days of treatment at a military hospital, the president tweeted Monday, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. ... I feel better than I did 20 years ago!” After one tough shift in the coronavirus unit at Cox South Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, Montgomery went onto Facebook to vent her frustrations about caring for patients who didn’t socially distance because they didn’t believe the virus was real. The hospital later shared her post on its website. She complained that some people demand the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and think the only patients who get really sick have underlying health problems. “The majority of people don’t understand and can’t picture what we are seeing. That has been frustrating for all of us,” Montgomery said in an interview, adding: “It wears.” Combating virus skeptics is a battle across the country. In Georgia, at Augusta University Medical Center, visitors have tried to get around the mask requirement by wearing face coverings made of fishnet and other material with visible holes, something the hospital has dubbed “malicious compliance.” People also have shown up with video cameras in an attempt to collect proof the virus is a hoax, said Dr. Phillip Coule, the health system’s chief medical officer, who contracted the virus in July and has seen two staff members die.“Just imagine that while you are caring for your own staff that are dying from this disease, and while you are trying to keep yourself safe, and you are trying to keep your family safe, and you are trying to deal with a disease that such little is known about, and then to have somebody tell you that it is all a hoax after you have been dealing with that all day,” he said. “Imagine the emotional distress that that causes.”He said most skeptics — including some who have argued with him on Facebook — are converted to believers when they get sick themselves. And he is starting to hear fewer people dismiss the virus entirely since the president was diagnosed.“It is unfortunate that the president has contracted the disease, but it is difficult for groups who support the president to be out there saying it doesn’t exist,” he said.
Covid-19 continues its onslaught in the U.S. - As President Trump and some of his associates test positive for the coronavirus, the number of new cases reported each day across the United States has been slowly rising.The country is at a key moment in the pandemic, and spread of the virus could worsen significantly through the autumn, experts fear, as colder weather forces people indoors. Every day, some 43,000 new cases are being reported — far fewer than during the surge in the summer, but still an uncomfortably large number.Some of the country’s least populous states are now seeing their highest infection rates.When coastal cities suffered in the spring, cases remained relatively scarce across most of the nation’s midsection. But since late summer, North Dakota and South Dakota have added more cases per capita than any other state.Utah recorded 1,387 new cases on Sunday, a single-day record. Four states — Wisconsin, Indiana, Montana and Wyoming — have added more cases in the last week than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic.One significant change from the spring and early summer has been the return of college students to campuses.The New York Times has identified more than 130,000 cases at more than 1,300 American colleges since the pandemic began.Some of the worst trouble spots have calmed. Florida is now averaging about 2,300 new cases a day, roughly one-fifth of what it was seeing at its worst. In Arizona, daily case reports have dropped to about 500 on average, down from more than 3,600.New infections have also plunged in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina. Mississippi and Alabama have made significant progress since midsummer as well, though case numbers there remain high.California and Texas have also seen drops in case numbers. Both states, however, have recorded more than 800,000 cases. “I’m actually disturbed and concerned about the fact that our baseline of infections is still stuck at around 40,000 per day,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s leading expert on infectious disease, said Monday on CNN. “That’s no place to be when you’re trying to get your arms around an epidemic and get it to a very low baseline as you get into a situation where you’re going to be indoors more than outdoors.”
Ninth COVID-19 death reported at California poultry processor Foster Farms - The deadliest outbreak to date of coronavirus at a meat processing plant has been reported at facility in California, where a ninth Foster Farms worker, hospitalized since August, died September 17. On September 1, the poultry powerhouse of the West Coast, Foster Farms, was forced to close its Livingston poultry processing plant, employing 2,500, by order of the Merced County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) after 392 employees tested positive for COVID-19. Despite the infections and deaths of workers, management bitterly opposed any shutdown to the end. Foster Farms was repeatedly urged by the MCDPH to increase efforts to protect its employees before any deaths occurred. On June 29, as the disease continued to spread throughout the facility, county health officials inspected the plant. In a failed effort to limit the outbreak, the health department suggested “significant changes to the employee break spaces and performing widespread testing of employees within the facility.” The department made continued calls for an increase in testing at the facility throughout the month of July. By the end of the month, Foster Farms had “tested less than 10 percent of the department with the largest [COVID-19] impact within the facility.” Among the employees who were tested, more than 25 percent turned up positive. In an August 27 press release, the health department reported unsuccessfully urging the company to take precautionary safety measures since late June. “The most severe and long-lasting outbreak in Merced County is at the Foster Farms Livingston Facility. On June 29th, MCDPH notified Foster Farms that its Livingston Facility was officially declared an outbreak.” This statement came one month before any documented coronavirus-related deaths at the plant. Nearly 9,000 people in Merced County out of a population of 277,680 have been infected, and 145 have died from COVID-19.
State Epidemiologist: Local Health Departments 'Cracking Under The Strain' Of Coronavirus Spread - Wisconsin's leading epidemiologist says the state needs to double the number of contact-tracing staff at local and tribal health departments to slow the spread of the coronavirus. In an interview with WPR’s "The Morning Show," Dr. Ryan Westergaard said the state's public health system is feeling the stress from the rampant spread of the virus. Westergaard said the rising number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 is concerning and could put a strain on hospital staff and resources — something some health systems have already been experiencing."The other part of our response that is beyond strained, it’s frankly cracking under the strain, is our local public health infrastructure," Westergaard said. "Our people who respond to positive tests, do contact tracing, call people when they test positive, call people who have been exposed and give them instructions about how to stay safe and how to quarantine. That system is not able to keep up."He said public health departments were already overwhelmed this summer when the state was seeing around 700 new cases each day. With daily case numbers now over 2,000, Westergaard said local departments need more support.On Thursday, Wisconsin Department of Health Services Secretary Andrea Palm said the state and local health departments have hired around 1,200 contact tracers. "(Local departments need) probably at least twice as many people as we have," Westergaard said. "But that's not the only thing that's really concerning. There's a lot of functions that local public health professionals do other than contact tracing and all of those things, whether it be immunizations or follow up for other communicable diseases, are all going to be strained as well." Several county health departments, including Rock, Pierce and La Crosse counties, have gone to "crisis standards" for contact tracing, prioritizing the highest risk situations. According to data from the DHS, around 17 percent of people tested for the coronavirus in Wisconsin over the last week have been positive. Westergaard said the high rate of positive tests is a signal to health officials that the virus is more widespread than people realize. He said people with COVID-19 symptoms are generally able to get tested by their health care provider. But Westergaard said individuals without symptoms who have been exposed to the virus are not able to get a test as easily because of limited resources.
October 5 COVID-19 Test Results --The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 882,104 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 38,103 positive tests. Over 3,100 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 4.3% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the June low. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low in November (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
Arkansas Republican County Chair Dies of COVID-19 Weeks After His Committee Hosted Maskless Gathering -The chairman of an Arkansas county Republican committee died from complications associated with COVID-19 on Tuesday—less than one month after his organization hosted a maskless gathering with other elected leaders.Steven Farmer, who served as the chairman of the Craighead County Republican Committee, died on Tuesday after a weeks-long battle with the coronavirus that resulted in a stay at the ICU and a ventilator, his daughter and the organization announced. The news comes just three weeks after his committee hosted an event with Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Rep. Louis Gohmert (R-TX), who contracted COVID-19 in July, for Reagan Day. Photos of the event show few attendees wearing masks and minimal social distancing. Arkansas state Rep. Dan Sullivan, who is currently spearheading a lawsuit to overturn the mask mandate and other health directives in his state, also appears to have spoken at the event.
10 more die from COVID-19 as hospitalizations continue to increase - Another 609 South Dakotans have been diagnosed with COVID-19 while 10 more people have died from the virus. That's according to the South Dakota Department of Health's latest daily coronavirus data update. The number for new cases reflected in Wednesday's update were outpaced by recoveries, of which there were 688. With the 10 additional deaths, the number of people in South Dakota who have died from COVID-19 increases to 258. Map: Where is coronavirus in South Dakota? View data on ages, counties and gender Three of the deaths were people over the age of 80, four aged 70-79 and three aged 60-69. Seven were men and three were women. They were from the following counties: Beadle, Codington (2), Lake, Lincoln, Meade, Pennington (2), Turner and Union. People with COVID-19 are currently occupying 273 hospital beds in the state, up from 250 the day prior. South Dakota Health Secretary Kim Malsam-Rysdon said despite the uptick in hospitalizations, the state's medical bed supply remains adequate. A total of 37 hospital facilities in South Dakota were serving COVID-19 patients, and 10 were using ICU beds to treat COVID-19 patients, she said.
October 8 COVID-19 Test Results --The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 930,355 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 54,870 positive tests. Over 5,600 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.9% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people would stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low in November - but that is looking unlikely.
North and South Dakota record fastest growing COVID-19 outbreak in US - Both North Dakota and South Dakota reported the highest per capita infection rates in the country this week. On Wednesday, South Dakota reported the highest number of per capita cases in the US, according to data from John’s Hopkins, with around 57 cases per 100,000 residents. North Dakota followed slightly behind, with roughly 56 cases per 100,000 residents. Cases and deaths are rapidly rising in North and South Dakota, mainly due to the refusal of state leaders to implement preventive measures. The surge comes just two months after the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally at which nearly 500,000 people converged in western South Dakota for a week of partying in August, with most attendees flouting measures aimed at limiting the virus’s spread, such as wearing masks. In North Dakota, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and new cases have hit record highs for the previous two days. Active new cases rose to 3,964 on Thursday, as well as total cases to 26,040 and active hospitalizations to 132. New cases in North Dakota also increased to a record-breaking 527 for the state. These figures were compounded by the reports of 41 deaths in the past three days out of 321 total for the state. South Dakota faces a similar sharp rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths, breaking previous records in previous days. On Wednesday, South Dakota saw a record 1,030 new cases reported, and the total active cases surpassed 5,000 on Thursday. In the past three days, 29 people died from COVID-19 in South Dakota out of 272 total deaths, pointing to a growing number of deaths. This growth will be exacerbated in both North and South Dakota due to the lack of major hospitals, since the states are sparsely populated in mostly small towns and rural areas. Last year, North Dakota population numbers were just above 762,000, and South Dakota population numbers were over 884,000.
Coronavirus Tracker – WSJ - (7 graphics) To chart the extent of the coronavirus pandemic, The Wall Street Journal’s trackers show the areas where Covid-19 infections are rising fastest, trends in new U.S. cases and deaths, and totals for countries around the world. The graphics below are updated regularly, using the latest data available from Johns Hopkins University.
Illinois Coronavirus Updates: Highest One-Day New Cases Since May – NBC Chicago - Illinois health officials on Thursday reported the highest one-day total number of coronavirus cases since mid-May as the state's positivity rate in testing also increased. Those figures were reported the same day Chicago announced the winners of its competition fielding ideas for how restaurants can continue outdoor dining in the colder weather months. Here are the latest updates from across Illinois on the coronavirus pandemic today (Oct. 9): Twenty-six counties in Illinois are now at a "warning level" for coronavirus, the state's health department said FridayThe warning means each of the counties saw increases in two or more COVID-19 "risk indicators," the health department said.The counties now under a warning include: Case, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford, Effingham, Fayette, Henderson, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lake, Lee, Mason, Massac, Pulaski, Richland, Saline, Shelby, Union, Vermilion, Whiteside, Winnebago, Warren.Last week, 28 counties were at a "warning level." The week before that it was 17."Although the reasons for counties reaching a warning level varies, some of the common factors for an increase in cases and outbreaks are associated with university and college parties as well as college sports teams, large gatherings and events, bars and clubs, weddings and funerals, family gatherings, long-term care facilities, correctional centers, schools, and cases among the community at large, especially people in their 20s," the Illinois Department of Public Health said in a statement.IDPH said officials observed businesses "blatantly disregarding mitigation measures, people not social distancing, gathering in large groups and not using face coverings." "Mayors, local law enforcement, state’s attorneys and other community leaders can be influential in ensuring citizens and businesses follow best practices," IDPH added. Illinois health officials on Friday reported 2,818 new coronavirus cases and 35 additional deathsover the last 24 hours.
Ohio reports 1,840 new coronavirus cases, a new record: Friday update - - Ohio reported 1,840 new coronavirus cases Friday, which is a new record for reported infections in a single day.The closest Ohio has come to this figure was on July 30, when there were 1,733 in one day. Before that, the record was 1,679 new cases on July 17.Ohio has had 166,102 coronavirus cases since the outbreak settled in the state earlier this year, according to the Ohio Department of Health.Gov. Mike DeWine, on Thursday, when he last addressed the public on the coronavirus, expressed concern about the growing case numbers and pleaded with Ohioans to wear masks and socially distance.Although not using the words “second wave,” DeWine said he was particularly concerned about the coming weeks, with colder weather and people spending more time indoors. Many K-12 and college students have in-person classes, which may be contributing to the spike.Each day since Sept. 29 -- except for weekends when case reports are lower because fewer local health departments are reporting them -- newly reported cases have been over 1,000, the threshold that public health officials describe as high for the state. They’d like to see daily numbers come in below 1,000. The U.S., as a whole, may be headed for a new spike. The number of new cases reached a high in mid-July and had been decreasing until the end of September, when it started to rise again, according to data tracked by The New York Times.
NC reports 2,000 COVID-19 cases; hospitalizations increase - The N.C. Department of Health and Human Services reported 2,034 new COVID-19 cases Friday,bringing the state’s total during the pandemic to 227,431.Another 25 people have died from the virus, the state reported, bringing North Carolina’s total deaths to 3,747.DHHS reported Friday that 1,065 people people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, with 95% of hospitals reporting. Hospitalizations are on an upward trend this week, after topping 1,000 Tuesday for the first time since Aug. 21. Hospitals admitted 390 suspected COVID-19 patients over the last 24 hours, DHHS reported Friday.About 5.7% of tests for COVID-19 were positive on Wednesday, the most recent day with available data. That’s down from over the weekend, when 8% of tests came back positive, but still higher than the 5% that health officials want to see.As more public schools transition from online-only classes to in-person instruction, DHHS officials on Thursday laid out COVID-19 testing strategies that school districts could use.There are 126 confirmed COVID-19 cases associated with 15 active K-12 clusters, according to DHHS. A cluster is when there are five or more cases associated with a school.More school districts are moving toward resuming in-person instruction, after Gov. Roy Cooperallowed elementary schools to reopen for full-time, daily instruction. Middle and high schools remain subject to state limits on the number of students who can be on campus.
U.S. COVID-19 cases hit two-month high, 10 states report record increases | Reuters - New cases of COVID-19 in the United States hit a two-month high on Friday with over 58,000 infections of the new coronavirus reported and hospitalizations in the Midwest at record levels for a fifth day in a row, according to a Reuters analysis. Ten of the 50 states reported record one-day rises in cases on Friday, including the Midwestern states of Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri and Ohio. Wisconsin and Illinois recorded over 3,000 new cases for a second day in a row - a two-day trend not seen even during the height of the previous outbreak in the spring, according to Reuters data. The Western states of Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming also reported their biggest one-day jumps in cases, as did Oklahoma and West Virginia. Nineteen states have seen record increases in new cases so far in October. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/2SFLb7o) Amid the resurgence in cases across the nation, President Donald Trump, who recently contracted COVID-19, is set to resume his re-election campaign on Saturday by addressing supporters from the balcony of the White House. Trump and his administration have faced criticism for their handling of the pandemic that has claimed over 213,000 lives in the country, as well as for a lax approach to mask-wearing and social distancing in the White House. There is no federal mandate to wear a mask, and 17 states do not require them, according to a Reuters analysis.
US Coronavirus: Several regions sound alarm as US reports most Covid-19 daily cases in nearly 2 months - Just as the US reported the highest number of daily Covid-19 infections in nearly two months, several experts offered grim outlooks if Americans don't take the right precautions. Johns Hopkins University reported a total of 57,420 new positive cases of coronavirus in the United States on Friday. That is the most reported cases in a single day since August 14, when there were 64,601 new cases, the data show. Friday's surge of 57,420 cases marks the third consecutive day of 50,000+ reported cases in the US, Johns Hopkins says. The last time the US reported three consecutive days of more than 50,000 cases was also in mid-August. "What they've done is opened up everything as if nothing had ever happened there, and you and I could be talking probably in eight to 10 weeks, and I will likely bet that Florida will be a house on fire," Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN Friday. White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx also cautioned Friday of "early suggestions" of alarming trends in the Northeast, urging residents to take action and help prevent the spread before the virus takes off again. "The actions this time have to happen at the personal level, in our private homes, rather than just the public spaces," she said. In New Jersey, officials are monitoring several areas of concern after the governor said the state was beginning to see "sobering" numbers. And in New York, several cluster areas prompted Gov. Andrew Cuomo to issue strict restrictions in areas with large Orthodox Jewish communities, sparking protests and criticism from some local leaders. As of October 8, the moving average of new cases per million people in the Northeast increased by 91% since September 8, according to data from Johns Hopkins. And across the US, 28 states -- scattered mostly across the Midwest and Northeast -- are reporting more new cases than the previous week, according to Johns Hopkins. Only two states -- Maine and Nebraska -- are reporting a decline. Worrying trends are being recorded across the US. At least 22 states reported more than 1,000 new cases on Thursday. And the country's daily case count average -- now more than 46,000 -- has surged by 12% since the previous week.Hospitalizations are also on the rise. Especially worrisome are the statistics from Wisconsin, experts say, which in recent days has reported its highest daily case count, hospitalization number and death toll.After issuing an emergency order limiting public gatherings, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers warned the state was in a "dire place" and announced a field hospital would be opening next week to help respond to the surge in patients. "We're in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives," he told residents earlier this week. Health officials have warned things could get worse as winter approaches and the Covid-19 pandemic is stacked against flu season. Projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show more than 2,900 Americans dying every day by January. And the latest US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble forecast shows the US death toll could climb to 233,000 by the end of the month.
Death records show which groups have been impacted the most by COVID-19 in Georgia — Each person lost to COVID-19 leaves behind a puzzle piece -- a clue-- to help us learn from the disease and save lives.That puzzle piece is their death certificate. Channel 2 Action News examined information from nearly 13,000 death certificates of Georgians who died in hospitals this year. It paints a picture of the human toll of the coronavirus and who it’s disproportionally killing in our state. To learn more about the people this disease is killing, Channel 2 Action News made a Georgia open records request to the Department of Public Health for death certificate information for the nearly 13,000 people who died in hospitals this year from April 1 through Aug. 1.“I think if you look at the overall picture of what these certificates tell us it’s probably a pretty good picture of what the ensemble of deaths from various causes really has been,” explained Dr. Richard Rothenberg with Georgia State University’s School of Public Health.He explained that underlying conditions, and the events leading up to a person’s death are valuable tools to researchers trying to understand the disease.“There are obviously lots of slip ups and difficulties with death certificates, but on average. They do a pretty good job of defining the major causes for an individual,” Rothenberg said.Of the nearly 13,000 deaths Channel 2 examined, COVID-19 is listed as a contributing factor in at least 2,600 of them. That’s about 20%. On a majority of deaths under 65 that listed underlying conditions, obesity, hypertension and diabetes were listed. “Georgia is one of the worst affected states in terms of obesity,” Dr. Ben Lopman with Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health said. “[It] might be one of the things that makes us as Georgians, or particular groups for sure, to be more susceptible to these severe outcomes, including death.”Lopeman said there are things death certificates doesn’t tell us about the virus, like why the US is experiencing a rise in non-COVID deaths during this pandemic and how many people are skipping critical healthcare visits, like cancer treatments, because they’re scared to visit their doctor.But he said deaths are a clear way epidemiologist to learn from the disease because there were testing challenges confirming COVID in the living.Lopman did note a disturbing trend -- that Black and brown Americans are disproportionally impacted by COVID.“I think the racial differences have been surprising, and that highlighted really the large inequalities in, in terms of health in our state and in our country,” Lopman said. Here in Georgia we leaned COVID is killing more Black people in hospitals. 48% of the people who died were African American or Black, while 46% were white. To put that number into perspective, according to the US Census Bureau about 60% of our state’s population is white, and only about 30% is Black.
Covid-19: Excess Fatalities vs. Administrative Counts -- Menzie Chinn - In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected. Figure 1: Excess fatalities, 10/7 vintage (purple red), 9/30 vintage (violet), 9/23 vintage (chartreuse), 9/16 vintage (red), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (orange), 8/25 vintage (blue). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations. This pattern suggests to me we should take with circumspection (1) the most recent counts of excess fatalities as they are likely to be revised substantially upward; and (2) administrative counts, either from CDC or from alternative compilations, as they are possibly missing many actual Covid-19 related deaths. Extending point (1), it is unclear to me whether excess fatalities are indeed falling, as they seem to have been pretty constant from the week ending 7/25 through week ending 8/15. (The Economist has a discussion of excess fatalities around the world.) Here are the various series of interest, latest available. Figure 2: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 10/7/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 10/8 accessed 10/9/2020 and author’s calculations. One conclusion that seems obvious: Cumulative excess fatalities through week ending 8/25 are substantially higher than administratively defined Covid-19 cumulative fatalities.
Coronavirus dashboard for October 9: everybody has to touch the hot stove at least once (7 graphs)
- Total confirmed US infections: 7,605,218*
- Average infections last 7 days: 46,869
- Total US deaths: 212,762
- Average deaths last 7 days: 717
In the last 4 weeks, the average number of new infections has risen again. Here is the breakdown by regions: Here is the same for deaths: The early outbreak in the NYC metro area remains the single most deadly outbreak per capita by far. So here is the rate of deaths for the past 12 weeks: mThe South and parts of the West, which were the epicenters of the second outbreak during the summer, have seen their numbers decline, while the Midwest in particular has seen its number increase sharply. The increase in the Northeast is primarily being driven by Massachusetts and Rhode Island, although NY and NJ have seen significant new increases as well.What we have seen since the pandemic started is that, when it gets out of control, there is a pain threshold after which States take action - like enforcing mask wearing and closing bars - and individuals get serious about limiting their exposure, that brings the rate of new infections down. A very good example is in the below graph, which tracks those States in the Sou th which were at the epicenter of the summer outbreak: All of them (except Tennessee) have seen their rates of infection decline by more than 50% since then. The same is true for Arizona, California, and Nevada in the West:Meanwhile, States in the Upper Midwest and Mountain areas, which had very low infections rates during the first few months of the pandemic, were lax and have let their infection rates grow out of control:They are now reaching the pain threshold, so we can expect counter-measures to finally be enacted, or taken voluntarily by individuals, to stem the spread.It seems that every State in every region has to learn the hard way. Getting lax leads to severe outbreaks, which leads to panic and vigilance - which ebbs over time in turn.
Third wave of COVID-19 expected to sweep across the United States - Recent trends in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States suggest a third wave in the pandemic will strike soon as the virus is continuing its spread through the Midwest and western states. After the high peaks in mid-July, new cases had slowed, downtrending until reaching their most recent low in mid-September at just over 35,000 cases per day on a seven-day moving average. The numbers have started to climb again, getting close to 44,000 per day, on average, a 26 percent increase in just a few weeks. Globally, the number of daily new cases of COVID-19 has reached a high of 294,000 on a seven-day average. There have been 35.66 million cases and 1.045 million deaths in the ten months since it was acknowledged that the world was facing an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, a deadly respiratory pathogen no one on the planet had immunity against. In the pandemic’s chaotic and turbulent course globally, the United States has established itself as the persistent epicenter, having faced two waves in the spring and summer that has seen 7.67 million confirmed cases with 215,000 dead. The disease first heavily impacted the Northeast and then moved into the South along the sunbelt and is now deeply entrenched across the country. Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, noted eerily, “The latest information is that 90 percent of the country has not yet been exposed to the virus. The virus hasn’t changed and has the capacity to spread rapidly if given a chance.” For the significant majority that can still fall victim to COVID-19, the experience of the last ten months and the pandemic’s current course is a dire warning. The hospitalization of President Donald Trump after testing positive for COVID-19 has made clear how easily the virus can spread. The White House Rose Garden celebration ten days ago packed with 150 people with complete disregard for masking and social distancing was an apparent superspreading event that resulted in the infection of several senators, White House staff and President Trump and his wife. According to USA Today, the White House on Monday rejected the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) offer to investigate the event by tracking and testing those exposed. Ironically, on the same day the CDC also posted on its website their long-awaited clarification stating that the coronavirus can spread through airborne transmission. “There is evidence,” they write, “that under certain conditions, people with COVID-19 seem to have infected others who were more than 6 feet away.”
Nearly all of Iran on coronavirus red alert as cases, deaths hit records - (Reuters) - Iran's Health Ministry said on Monday nearly the whole country was on a coronavirus red alert as cases and deaths rose to record levels, with a member of the state task force's warning field hospitals might be needed if people flout the rules. Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari told state television that 26 of Iran's 31 provinces were "red" zones, the highest alert level, while four were at the next "orange" level. Authorities registered a record high 3,902 new cases in the past 24 hours, with the total number of identified cases in the worst-hit country in the Middle East rising to 475,674, Lari said. She said 235 patients had died in the past 24 hours, equalling a daily death toll high set on July 28, bringing the total death toll to 27,192. Officials have complained that many have defied regulations to wear face masks and some families used lockdowns to go on trips, helping spread the virus with hospitals nearly full. "If people keep going on weekend trips..., our patients might have to go to field hospitals," Masoud Mardani, a member of the state coronavirus task force, told Khabaronline website. On Saturday, schools, libraries, mosques and other public institutions in the capital Tehran closed for a week as part of measures to stem the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases. Similar closures have been also imposed in Zanjan province, northwest of Tehan, and cities in several other provinces, shutting museums, theatres, gyms, cafes and hair salons, state media said. Because of coronavirus concerns, Iran has banned flights to Iraq to block trips by Iranians to the neighbouring country for the annual pilgrimage of Arbaeen, which draws large crowds. Land borders to Iraq have also been closed.
Face masks made compulsory in public in Tehran as COVID toll rises (Reuters) - Mask wearing has become mandatory in public in the Iranian capital and violators will be fined, President Hassan Rouhani announced on Saturday as the country battles a third wave of coronavirus infections. The daily death toll from COVID-19 reached a record of 239 this week in Iran, the worst hit country in the Middle East. On Saturday, the Health Ministry reported 195 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking the total toll to 28,293. There were 3,875 new cases, ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari told state TV. Masks have been compulsory in indoor public spaces since July, although no penalties were imposed. Now they are mandatory in public both indoors and outdoors in the capital Tehran. Rouhani said in televised remarks that anyone caught without a mask would be fined 500,000 rials and those infected with the coronavirus who do not self-quarantine or inform friends and colleagues of their illness would be fined 2 million rials. The Iranian rial fell to a new low against the U.S. dollar on Saturday as the country reels from the coronavirus pandemic and U.S. sanctions. The dollar was selling for as much as 304,300 rials on the unofficial market, up from 295,949 on Friday, according to foreign exchange site Bonbast.com.The United States slapped fresh sanctions on Iran’s financial sector on Thursday. Tehran has accused Washington of undermining its ability to pay for basic necessities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Schools, mosques, shops, restaurants and other public institutions in Tehran closed for a week on Oct. 3 in an effort to curb the spread of the virus. The city’s governor extended the closure on Friday for another week.
Israel’s second coronavirus lockdown is fraying nerves, amid protests, confusion and violence.- Israel was the first country to enter a second national coronavirus lockdown, but with new daily cases of the coronavirus reaching up to 9,000 recently,, and with public trust in the government plummeting, there has been little letup in a growing sense of chaos and loss of control. Several factors are complicating its struggle with a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths that, relative to the size of the population, is among the worst in the world. Curbs on protests under the new lockdown — limiting gatherings to 20 masked people, two meters apart and no farther than about half a mile from their homes — have backfired. Israelis calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is standing trial on corruption charges and has been a focus of blame over the country’s handling of the pandemic, have staged hundreds of smaller demonstrations, even as protesters face an increase in attacks by their opponents and the police are also accused of violence. The authorities are also struggling to prevent large gatherings in the country’s ultra-Orthodox communities during the Jewish High Holy Days, which began on Sept. 18 and extend until Oct. 11. Dr. Ronni Gamzu, Israel’s coronavirus czar, said last week that 40 percent of those testing positive came from the ultra-Orthodox community, even though it makes up only about 13 percent of the population. Some Hasidic sects insisted on holding indoor prayers to celebrate Sukkot, the Jewish harvest holiday. Stormy confrontations broke out on Sunday in some ultra-Orthodox areas. But the large weddings that were blamed for a surge of infections among Israel’s Arab minority over the summer have subsided, after Arab mayors acted to enforce restrictions on large gatherings. There has been a significant decline in new cases among Arab citizens of Israel.
France and UK Set Record for Daily Coronavirus Cases - Britain and France both posted record high rises in the daily number of coronavirus cases on Saturday evening. France reported 17,000 new cases, with 49 additional deaths on the same day. More than 32,000 people have now died of the virus in France, and more than 606,625 people have been infected. The rate of positive coronavirus tests rose to 7.9% from 7.7% in the country. Bars and restaurants are closed in the southern port of Marseilles, and rising infection rates mean similar closures could soon apply in the capital, Paris. Mask-wearing is compulsory, even outdoors, in a number of French cities. In Britain, the Health Ministry reported almost 13,000 new cases, almost double the cases reported on Friday. The British government said the sudden spike was due to a "technical issue" which caused a delay in reporting previous cases. Britain's coronavirus death toll stands at 42,317 — higher than any other country in Europe. In a bid to curb the spread of the virus, the government has imposed restrictions on social gatherings and warned that tougher measures could follow if infection rates don't start to drop. . Europe is in the middle of another surge in cases, as new restrictions are being placed across the continent.
- Germany: Data from the Robert Koch Institute showed that cases increased by 2,279 on Sunday. The death toll rose by 2, taking the total to 9,529.
- Italy: The country reported 2,844 new cases on Saturday, its highest tally since April, when the country was still in lockdown. The death toll rose by 27. The Italian government announced measures to curb the rise in numbers to be introduced soon, which will make wearing masks in public compulsory.
- Ukraine: Former President Petro Poroshenko has been hospitalized for double pneumonia, according to his wife. "Despite the fact that my husband has double pneumonia, he is strong-willed and is demonstrating this in the fight against the disease," Maryna Poroshenko said. The 55-year-old tested positive for the virus just a few days ago.
- Ireland: The chief medical officer of Ireland said the country was seeing rising numbers after the country reported the highest rise in cases since April. Ireland has taken measures such as banning indoor restaurants and travel in and out of the capital, Dublin.
- Poland: After reporting 1,934 new cases on Sunday, Poland's total caseload has cracked the 100,000 mark. The country has registered 100,074 cases and 2,630 since the pandemic began. Though it was one of the first countries to go into lockdown, Poland's conservative government has not committed to another despite recording three daily case records in the past week.
- India: The South Asian nation has recorded 75,829 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of infections to 6.5 million, according to data from the Health Ministry. India's death toll of almost 102,000 is the world's third-highest behind the United States and Brazil.
- Tunisia: The North African nation is set to ban all public gatherings, and reduce working hours for public sector employees. The decision was taken due to the rise in coronavirus cases, over fears that the healthcare sector would be unable to cope with the high numbers. The country faces a shortage of intensive care beds
Paris will close its bars and many cafes for at least two weeks starting on Tuesday. - Bars in Paris will close for two weeks starting on Tuesday, the authorities there announced on Monday, as France tries to stem a surge of coronavirus cases in its capital. The measure will also affect most cafes, which in many cases serve alcohol, but little or no food. Restaurants will be able to remain open if they follow a strict health protocol. Paris joined a handful of other French areas that have been placed on maximum alert because of a continued rise in infections, especially among older people. Local health authorities said the capital had been above the thresholds for the top alert level — more than 250 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people generally, more than 100 per 100,000 in the elderly, and more than one-third of intensive care beds used for Covid-19 patients — since last Thursday. On average, there are over 3,500 new infections a day in Paris and 203 active clusters, especially among young people for whom the incidence rate is over 500 infections per 100,000 people. In France generally, the seven-day average for new daily cases is above 11,000. The Paris region has as many patients hospitalized for coronavirus as it did in May, when the country was just exiting its two-month lockdown. Mayor Anne Hidalgo and the head of the Paris police said at a news conference on Monday that the bar closures would apply to Paris and the surrounding suburbs. Gyms, dancing halls and enclosed swimming pools will be closed to adults, though minors will be allowed to use gyms and pools. “The epidemic is going too fast,” said Didier Lallement, the Paris police chief. “We need to brake now before our health system is submerged.” Restaurants will have to keep registers of customers for contact-tracing, distance tables by one meter, keep seating to no more than six per table and take payments at the table. Those restaurant rules will also apply in other maximum-risk areas, including the southern cities of Aix-en-Provence and Marseille, where the authorities had closed restaurants under a tightening of restrictions last month. But bars in those two cities will remain closed for at least another week. Starting on Tuesday, new restrictions will also apply to universities in areas on high alert, with classrooms and lecture halls operating at half capacity or below. Retirement home visits will become appointment-only, and with a maximum of two people per visit.
COVID-19 infections on the rise in Germany - There were 3,086 new cases of COVID-19 reported within the span of 24 hours in Germany yesterday—one of the highest rates since April. As of Monday, there have been 304,657 cases, of which 31,341 are active. Of the active cases, 414 patients are currently in a serious or critical condition. The age of the infected, for both mild and severe cases, has been decreasing as infections rise. The average age of those hospitalised has dropped to 37 years. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) made an ominous calculation in a press conference last week. There, she showed that the daily infection rate, which has doubled every month since July, following the current trend would reach 19,200 new infections per day by Christmas. This makes abundantly clear that Merkel’s administration knows full well the risk it is exposing the working population to by fully opening the economy. Like every other bourgeois government, the Grand Coalition is dead set on fully opening schools, businesses and events as well as train service and public transport, come what may. State and federal administrations have prescribed “herd immunity” for the population—that is, letting the virus spread freely. This was stated with uncommon candor by virologist Hendrik Streeck, who has a long history of playing down the virus.On the TV show “Anne Will,” on September 20, Streeck depicted a scenario in which the virus would become “part of our lives” and in which every social measure to fight its spread—testing, isolation, contact tracing—would be discontinued and the virus allowed to take its course. “The infection numbers will go up in the fall and winter,” said Streeck, “then we will no longer be able to follow up with testing. We will reach the capacity of our labs.” The German Ministry of the Interior made the meaning of this clear in a report from March 18 in which most scientists answered “the question: ‘what happens if we do nothing?’ with a worst-case scenario of over one million deaths in 2020—just in Germany.”
UK COVID-19 cases triple in a fortnight - More than 14,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday, tripling in a fortnight the number of people testing positive. Wednesday’s 14,162 cases, Tuesday’s 14,542 cases, along with Monday’s 12,594 new positive tests, saw cases mount to above 40,000 in the first three days of the week. Hospitalisations due to coronavirus are also surging. The 478 people admitted to hospital Sunday—up from 386 the day previous—was the largest daily figure since early June and a one-day leap of 25 percent. This week, 165 deaths have been announced, taking the highly massaged official overall total to 42,515. These figures shatter claims made by the government and its media apologists in recent days that the escalation in case numbers was a statistical anomaly due to a temporary “glitch” in the government’s track and trace system. The mass infections are the inevitable result of the Johnson government’s herd immunity policy that led to the ending of lockdown and the reopening of the economy in June, followed by September’s reopening of schools, colleges, and universities. The trajectory is pointing toward infection rates and hospitalisations well above those levels reached during the height of the pandemic, which resulted in the loss of over 65,000 lives according to reliable excess death studies. The UK has no adequate containment policies or functioning track and trace system in place. So-called local lockdowns, focusing on personal behaviour, while schools and workplaces remain open, has seen the virus spread like wildfire. Scientists’ predictions of up to 50,000 cases and 200 deaths a day by November could yet be an underestimation. Each day brings more horrific proof that schools and universities in particular are breeding grounds for the virus. The ToryFibs twitter account reported Wednesday that 2,805 schools have infections, many with multiple cases.
Tens of thousands of UK COVID-19 cases and contacts went unreported -The UK recorded 12,872 new coronavirus cases on Saturday and 22,961 new cases Sunday. These figures included 15,841 cases registered between September 25 and October 2 which were not previously reported because an Excel spreadsheet containing the data became too large and failed to update. There are two clear conclusions which flow from this fiasco: the pandemic is continuing to accelerate rapidly across the UK, and the government’s test and trace system, six months into operation, is completely dysfunctional. In the last week, the media was filled with reports that the increase in COVID-19 infections in the UK had “levelled off” or was “slowing”. Not one organisation sought to investigate how this seeming miracle had occurred. It was left to the government to admit that the figures used to support these claims were wildly inaccurate—out by some 4,000 a day. The truth is that the seven-day rolling average for daily new cases has increased from 4,964 on September 25 (when cases began to go unreported) to around 9,500 as of Monday morning—rapidly approaching the peak averages of 11,000 and 12,000 recently recorded by Spain and France. Another 12,594 cases were reported in the UK on Monday evening. According to the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, whose data is increasing being relied upon by the government as more accurate than its own, there are in reality more than 20,000 new cases in the UK each day. The reproduction rate ( R number) of the virus nationally has increased for the fourth consecutive week, up to between 1.3 and 1.6, but these figures are trailing by two to three weeks current infection rates. The 7-day average for COVID-19 patients admitted to UK hospitals has increased from a low of less than 100 a day at the end of August to 380 as of September 26. The north of England is suffering significantly worse rates of infection than the national average. Manchester’s infections increased to 495.6 cases per 100,000 in the week to October 1, from 223.2 the week before, according to official figures. Liverpool climbed from 287.1 to 456.4, Knowsley from 300.3 to 452.1, Newcastle from 256.6 to 399.6, Nottingham from 52 to 283.9, Leeds from 138.8 to 274.5 and Sheffield from 91.8 to 233.
Britain is heading ‘into a long winter’ as Covid second wave strikes – FT - On August 14, Boris Johnson sparked panic on the beaches when he decided to add France to England’s quarantine list. Thousands of Brits dashed home from a country recording 30 Covid-19 cases per 100,000, hoping to avoid two weeks of self-isolation at the end of their vacation.While danger lurked abroad — British tourists were told to venture to foreign climes “with their eyes open” — Mr Johnson was confident the situation at home was under control. Workers were urged to return to their offices; the taxpayer subsidised cheap meals under an “eat out to help out” scheme.The new Covid-19 test and tracing system — on which the government had spent more than it spends on nursery and university education at 0.6 per cent of national income — would allow the country to get back to work and enjoy life, while suppressing the virus until a vaccine was available. Since then, a second wave of coronavirus has engulfed the UK at a pace not seen in other large European countries. Mr Johnson’s “world-beating” test and trace system struggles to cope on good days; on bad days it is a farce.Cities in the north of England have been particularly badly hit, with rates above 500 per 100,000 in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle — at least 15 times higher than the rate in France on that chaotic day in August.From having a rate of infection per 100,000 people of 11.4 in the week up to August 15, well below the EU average of 20.5 and the US rate of 110.7, the UK’s positive case rate has now exceeded both the EU and US totals. It stands at 133.7, higher than the US rate of 96.9 and the EU rate of 77.2. Mr Johnson used to say he would contain a second wave of Covid-19 with a localised “whack a mole” strategy. In the north of England, the moles are winning. While cases of coronavirus remain subdued in London and the south-east, in deprived northern towns and cities they are popping up fast.“The virus has spread right across the community. We are seeing lots among the older population. I wish we could pinpoint how it is spreading. We don’t know. We need a total lockdown,” said Sean Donnelly, deputy leader of Knowsley council, the authority next to Liverpool that now has the second highest rate of infection in the country. “Track and trace has failed. We are getting passed cases seven days after they tested positive. That is too late,” he said. In the week to October 8, there were 907 new cases, and a rate of 601.2 per 100,000 population, up from 365.2 a week before.
‘A Definite and Sustained Increase’: Europe Leads Record Single-Day Worldwide Covid-19 Infection Surge - The World Health Organization reported a record one-day increase in global coronavirus infections on Thursday, with 338,779 new cases registered in the past 24 hours.According to Reuters, the record single-day surge is largely driven by 96,996 new cases in Europe, which is now reporting more new cases than the United States, India, and Brazil—the world’s three most infected countries. India reported 78,524 new Covid-19 cases, followed by Brazil with 41,906 new infections, and the United States, with 38,904 new cases.Covid-19 cases rose in 54 countries, with surges occurring in Argentina, Canada, and several European nations including France and Britain, which recorded record numbers of coronavirus infections.“We are seeing a definite and sustained increase in cases and admissions to hospital,” Dr. Yvonne Doyle, medical director for Public Health England, told Reuters. “The trend is clear, and it is very concerning.”The WHO reported Thursday that the worldwide Covid-19 death toll rose by 5,514 to 1.05 million, with a global total of just over 36 million cases since the beginning of the pandemic.The United States still leads the world in total Covid-19 cases—over 7.8 million people, or 2.38% of the population, have been infected, including President Donald Trump—and deaths, with over 217,000 fatalities. Across the U.S., 39 states reportedincreases in infections on Wednesday, with six states—Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming—registering record Covid-19 hospitalizations.“We’re in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives,” said Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, who on Tuesday ordered bars and restaurants in the state to limit occupancy to 25% of capacity. “There’s no other way to put it, we are overwhelmed.”
State of emergency declared in Madrid as COVID-19 resurgence sweeps EuropeAs COVID-19’s resurgence sweeps Europe, Spain’s Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government was forced to declare a state of emergency in Madrid Friday. Over 600 cases per 100,000 residents had been recorded in the past seven days, over double the nationwide average of 250 per 100,000 residents. The day before, a Madrid court had struck down the PSOE-Podemos government’s proposed restrictions on travel and social contacts for over four million of Madrid’s 6.6 million inhabitants. The restrictions, which the government can now enforce after declaring the state of emergency, have no impact on nonessential work and in-person teaching in schools, however. The PSOE-Podemos government’s reckless drive to reopen the economy and schools at all costs has resulted in Spain emerging as currently the worst-impacted country in Western Europe. As of Friday evening, Spain had recorded over 890,000 infections, and major papers have admitted that Spain’s total losses from the disease are around 50,000. The surge of infections in Madrid is hitting a health care system that has been on the brink of collapse for weeks. As the WSWS previously reported, intensive care units were already running at 90 percent capacity in late September. Expecting a further deterioration of conditions in the hospitals, the Madrid regional government imposed a law this week banning all medical staff from talking to the media. New daily infections across Europe Friday surpassed the mark of 100,000 for the second day running. Europe saw 102,357 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and 110,051 on Friday, according to Worldometers. Since Tuesday, daily deaths across Europe have hovered around the 1,000 mark. Europe is re-emerging as a major centre of the pandemic. Europe recorded 460,000 COVID-19 cases last week, compared to 380,000 for North America and South America, according to Britain’s Daily Telegraph. Alongside Spain, France is witnessing the most rapid rise in new infections. Over 18,000 cases are being reported each day, and hospital wards are filling up with COVID-19 patients. The maximum alert level was decreed in Lille, Lyon, Grenoble, and Saint Étienne, after being decreed in Paris, Marseille and Aix. This entails the closure of bars and indoor sports venues, while restaurants are allowed to remain open under tighter restrictions.
Dutch government’s malign neglect accelerates resurgence of COVID-19 - The Netherlands has become a major hot-spot in western Europe for COVID-19 infections, with record numbers of confirmed infections each day. Daily infection rates are skyrocketing, with many clusters amid the Netherlands’ 17 million population—in the capital, Amsterdam, the political centre, The Hague, and the port city of Rotterdam.When COVID-19 first hit the Netherlands in February, the government deliberately took only half-hearted measures as the virus spread in the four major cities—Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht. Its so-called “intelligent” lock-down was limited to closing schools, sports clubs and the hospitality sector, and to the 1.5 metres social distancing. The use of face masks was limited to public transport, and COVID-19 testing reserved for hospitalised patients with serious symptoms. By June, these limited restrictions were effectively lifted; bars, restaurants and schools all reopened.Due to the Dutch ruling elite’s reckless policy, by mid-September, record numbers of COVID-19 cases were reported with around 1,500 daily cases by September 14, nearly doubling by the end of the week, surpassing the number of cases confirmed during the initial surge in March-April. By the end of the first week of October, daily cases had surpassed 5,900. According to the National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM), 6,544 people had died of COVID-19 in the Netherlands on 8 October. The Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) however, claims more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths in March-June alone, possibly because the RIVM did not count cases where COVID-19 was marked as cause of death, but it did not receive laboratory confirmation.
Europe records 100,000 daily coronavirus cases for first time - Europe surpassed 100,000 daily reported COVID-19 cases for the first time on Thursday, after countries such as Russia and United Kingdom saw no respite in the mounting number of infections every day in the past five days. Cases throughout Europe have been steadily rising over the past week even as new infections in worst-affected countries such as India and Brazil have shown signs of slowing down. The epicentre of the outbreak in the European region has moved to the United Kingdom, Russia, Spain and France which have reported at least over 10,000 cases each in the last three days. Russia reported its highest daily coronavirus cases ever since the last record in May on Friday, prompting Moscow authorities to mull closing bars and nightclubs. GRAPHIC: Daily COVID-19 cases: Russia, United Kingdom, France and Spain - GRAPHIC: New COVID-19 cases in Russia over 3 weeks - The United Kingdom recorded more than 17,000 cases on Thursday with the country’s Health Minister Matt Hancock warning that the United Kingdom was at a “perilous moment”. Many parts of northern England, Wales and Scotland have introduced tougher restrictions on social interaction to try to curb the growing spread of the disease. Britain has been reeling under a double whammy of coronavirus cases skyrocketing and an alarming case-to-fatality rate of 7%, among the highest in the world. More than six of every 10,000 people have died due to the virus in the country. The country’s fatality rate is in stark contrast to the United States at 2.8%, even though the United States has recorded more than four times the total number of deaths due to the virus compared to Britain. Europe currently has recorded over 16% of total global coronavirus cases and nearly 22% of deaths worldwide due to the virus. On Thursday, when daily reported cases breached the 100,000 mark, Eastern Europe was the worst affected region with over 33,600 daily reported cases. Among the 10 countries in the region, including Ukraine, Russia and the Czech Republic, eight posted record increases in cases in the past week.
New restrictions enforced in Europe as COVID-19 cases surge - - New restrictions have been unveiled across Europe as COVID-19 cases continue to rise on the continent, with several countries reporting record one-day rises in cases this week. Among the new rules are wider mask mandates, restrictions on social gatherings and curbs to the hospitality industry, just months after thespread of infection was seemingly under control and restrictions were eased. Italy, Germany and France all reported record single-day rises in cases, though that has not translated into the similar death counts seen in the early days of the pandemic. To curb the spread, Paris has been declared a "Maximum Alert Zone," meaning all bars are now closed, restaurants are open with strict conditions, and the playing of music and sale of alcohol after 10 p.m. has been prohibited. On Wednesday 18,764 new cases were reported, as well as 80 coronavirus-related deaths. COVID-19 patients now take up more than 40% of all intensive care unit beds across Ile-de-France, the region surrounding Paris.This weekend four more French cities will have their status switched to a "Maximum Alert Zone."In Italy, wearing masks is now mandatory in all indoor and outdoor spaces, and the government is attempting to combat the rise in cases by instituting local lockdowns to avoid closing businesses and schools nationwide again."The state can't ask citizens to wear masks in their own homes," Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said at a press conference this week. "But we have a strong recommendation for all citizens: Even in our families we have to be careful."The German Health Minister Jens Spahn said "the numbers are a worrying jump" as the country recorded over 4,000 daily infections on Wednesday,"At the moment it's mainly young people getting infected, because they want to party, want to travel and because they feel invulnerable, but they are not," he said.
Covid’s Comeback Is Bigger But Less Deadly, at Least for Now - The coronavirus isn’t sticking to its schedule. The deadly pathogen was always expected to make a comeback this winter, but an autumn rebound in infections across Europe and North America could make the colder months even more daunting than public health officials had anticipated. The pandemic’s resurgence is less deadly so far than during its bleak early months, when thousands were dying daily. The risk is that with official case numbers already jumping to records in many countries, caring for the sick will overburden hospitals. The return of the virus has been particularly pronounced in Europe, where long lockdowns brought the virus to heel following a deadly spring. After authorities eased restrictions in an effort to jump-start their economies, infection rates began climbing in Spain, France and other nations in August, fueled by vacationers and the virus’s insidious ability to spread from asymptomatic people. “When people went on vacation they really let their guard down,” said White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator Deborah Birx at a Friday press briefing in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “We’re asking now that you’re back from vacation, put your guard back up, not only in the public places but in your private places, including your home.” The impact is being felt in both Europe, where many people take holidays in August, and in the U.S., where the effect has been creeping northward in the east and Midwest, Birx said. People should stop assuming that their families and close friends are free of infection just because they appear healthy, she said. “We take down our guard when we’re with people we know, and we assume that if I know you, you couldn’t have Covid,” she said. “The message has to change that we’re giving to the community, that community spread is now occurring in small gatherings day after day in households and families.” Infection rates are spiraling across much of the European continent. Over the past month, France has reported about 340,000 new cases, close to half the country’s cumulative total since the outbreak began. Yet deaths have risen by less than 1,800 -- a rate of about 0.5% -- after the country previously recorded more than 30,000. The U.K. has seen a similar trend. Countries that were less affected the first time around, such as the Czech Republic, became hot spots this fall. Even Germany, which weathered the spring better than many of its neighbors, is seeing growing case rates.In the U.S., the seven-day average of new cases climbed to 46,824 Thursday, the most since Aug. 19, according to the most recent Johns Hopkins University data. One trouble spot is New York City, where outbreaks in a handful of neighborhoods and suburbs have stirred fears that the former U.S. virus epicenter could see a second act.
With more than 1 million dead, who have been the victims of the coronavirus pandemic? - Researchers from Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI), Johns Hopkins University, and the University of California at Berkeley, recently conducted a larger contact-tracing observational study with public health officials in the southeast Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, involving 575,071 individuals who were exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The lead author, Ramanan Laxminarayan, found that 8 percent of infected individuals accounted for 60 percent of new infections, while 71 percent of infected individuals did not pass on the infection to any of their contacts. COVID-19 deaths occurred, on average, six days after hospitalization, versus 13 days on average in the US. As in other countries, the proportion of deaths is skewed to the older population. The study found, however, that children and young adults accounted for one-third of COVID cases and were a significant factor in the transmission of the virus. Additionally, children and young adults were prone to contracting coronavirus from people their age. “Kids are very efficient transmitters in this setting, which is something that hasn’t been firmly established in previous studies,” the lead author explained to PEI correspondent Morgan Kelly. This has significant implications for the reopening of schools as news of teachers succumbing to COVID-19 has made headlines. In the US, according to data provided by the American Academy of Pediatrics, as of October 1, there were 657,572 children infected with COVID-19 out of 6,231,564 total cases, or 10.6 percent. This puts the overall rate at 874 cases per 100,000 children in the population, after a series of weekly increases from 583 per 100,000 children as of August 20. Across 42 states and New York City, the death rate for children was 0.02 percent of those infected, while only 1.7 percent of children infected have been hospitalized. There have been 112 cumulative child deaths in the US. There is similar data for Europe and Asia. There are nonetheless some disturbing trends. After California, the most populous state and the one with the largest number of children infected with COVID-19, the states with the highest totals of children infected include Florida, Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina, across the south and southwest. Illinois is the only northern state high on the list. In percentage terms, the worst figures are in Wyoming and North Dakota in the north, and Tennessee and South Carolina in the south. The early northern hotspots for the pandemic—New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan—have some of the lowest rates for children, since the virus swept disproportionately through nursing homes.
SARS-CoV-2 Is an Unrestricted Bioweapon: A Truth Revealed through Uncovering a Large-Scale, Organized Scientific Fraud - Yan, Li-Meng, et al - Two possibilities should be considered for the origin of SARS-CoV-2: natural evolution or laboratory creation. In our earlier report titled “Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route”, we disproved the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 arising naturally through evolution and instead proved that SARS-CoV-2 must have been a product of laboratory modification. Despite this and similar efforts, the laboratory creation theory continues to be downplayed or even diminished. This is fundamentally because the natural origin theory remains supported by several novel coronaviruses published after the start of the outbreak. These viruses (the RaTG13 bat coronavirus, a series of pangolin coronaviruses, and the RmYN02 bat coronavirus) reportedly share high sequence homology with SARS-CoV-2 and have altogether constructed a seemingly plausible pathway for the natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Here, however, we use in-depth analyses of the available data and literature to prove that these novel animal coronaviruses do not exist in nature and their sequences have been fabricated. In addition, we also offer our insights on the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated naturally from a coronavirus that infected the Mojiang miners. Revelation of these virus fabrications renders the natural origin theory unfounded. It also strengthens our earlier assertion that SARS-CoV-2 is a product of laboratory modification, which can be created in approximately six months using a template virus owned by a laboratory of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The fact that data fabrications were used to cover up the true origin of SARS-CoV-2 further implicates that the laboratory modification here is beyond simple gain-of-function research. The scale and the coordinated nature of this scientific fraud signifies the degree of corruption in the fields of academic research and public health. As a result of such corruption, damages have been made both to the reputation of the scientific community and to the well-being of the global community. Importantly, while SARS-CoV-2 meets the criteria of a bioweapon specified by the PLA, its impact is well beyond what is conceived for a typical bioweapon. In addition, records indicate that the unleashing of this weaponized pathogen should have been intentional rather than accidental. We therefore define SARS-CoV-2 as an Unrestricted Bioweapon and the current pandemic a result of Unrestricted Biowarfare. We further suggest that investigations should be carried out on the suspected government and individuals and the responsible ones be held accountable for this brutal attack on the global community. (full paper embedded)
Covid-19 may have infected 10 percent of world's population, WHO says — The head of emergencies at the World Health Organization said Monday its “best estimates” indicate that roughly 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by thecoronavirus — more than 20 times the number of confirmed cases — and warned of a difficult period ahead.Dr. Michael Ryan, speaking to a special session of the WHO’s 34-member executive board focusing on Covid-19, said the figures vary from urban to rural, and between different groups, but that ultimately it means “the vast majority of the world remains at risk.”The estimate — which would amount to more than 760 million people based on a current world population of about 7.6 billion — far outstrips the number of confirmed cases as tallied by both WHO and Johns Hopkins University, now more than 35 million worldwide. More than one million people have died from the virus. Ryan said the pandemic would continue to evolve, but that tools exist to suppress transmission and save lives.“Many deaths have been averted and many more lives can be protected,” he said.He was flanked by his boss, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who minutes earlier led a moment of silence to honor victims as well as round of applause for the health workers who have strived to save them.Ryan said southeast Asia faced a surge in cases, Europe and the eastern Mediterranean were seeing an increase in deaths, while the situations in Africa and the Western Pacific were “rather more positive.” “Our current best estimates tell us that about 10 percent of the global population may have been infected by this virus,” Ryan told attendees from member governments who make up the executive board and provide much of its funding.
Did The WHO Just (Accidentally) Confirm COVID Is No More Dangerous Than Flu? --The World Health Organization has finally confirmed what we (and many experts and studies) have been saying for months – the coronavirus is no more deadly or dangerous than seasonal flu.The WHO’s top brass made this announcement during a special session of the WHO’s 34-member executive board on Monday October 5th, it’s just nobody seemed to really understand it. In fact, they didn’t seem to completely understand it themselves. At the session, Dr Michael Ryan, the WHO’s Head of Emergencies revealed that they believe roughly 10% of the world has been infected with Sars-Cov-2. This is their “best estimate”, and a huge increase over the number of officially recognised cases (around 35 million). Dr. Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman, later confirmed the figure, stating it was based on the average results of all the broad seroprevalence studies done around the world. As much as the WHO were attempting to spin this as a bad thing – Dr Ryan even said it means “the vast majority of the world remains at risk.” – it’s actually good news. And confirms, once more, that the virus is nothing like as deadly as everyone predicted.The global population is roughly 7.8 billion people, if 10% have been infected that is 780 million cases. The global death toll currently attributed to Sars-Cov-2 infections is 1,061,539. That’s an infection fatality rate of roughly or 0.14%. Right in line with seasonal flu and the predictions of many experts from all around the world. 0.14% is over 24 times LOWER than the WHO’s “provisional figure” of 3.4% back in March. This figure was used in the models which were used to justify lockdowns and other draconian policies.
Evidence of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's & MND in brains of young people exposed to dirty air -Researchers looking at the brainstems of children and young adults exposed lifelong to air pollution in Mexico City have discovered disturbing evidence of harm. Previous studies have linked fine particulate air pollution exposure with Alzheimer's disease, and researchers have also reported evidence of air pollution-derived nanoparticles in the frontal cortex of the brain. But after examining the brainstems of 186 young Mexico City residents aged between 11 months and 27 years of age, researchers, including Professor Barbara Maher from Lancaster University, found markers not only of Alzheimer's disease, but also of Parkinson's and of motor neurone disease (MND) too. These markers of disease were coupled with the presence of tiny, distinctive nanoparticles within the brainstem - their appearance and composition indicating they were likely to come from vehicle pollution. This has led researchers to conclude that air pollution of this nature - whether inhaled or swallowed - puts people at risk of potential neurological harm. The brainstem is the posterior part of the brain which regulates the central nervous system, controls heart and breathing rates, and how we perceive the position and movement of our body, including, for example, our sense of balance. "Not only did the brainstems of the young people in the study show the 'neuropathological hallmarks' of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and MND, they also had high concentrations of iron-, aluminium- and titanium-rich nanoparticles in the brainstem - specifically in the substantia nigra, and cerebellum. "The iron-and aluminium-rich nanoparticles found in the brainstem are strikingly similar to those which occur as combustion- and friction-derived particles in air pollution (from engines and braking systems). "The titanium-rich particles in the brain were different - distinctively needle-like in shape; similar particles were observed in the nerve cells of the gut wall, suggesting these particles reach the brain after being swallowed and moving from the gut into the nerve cells which connect the brainstem with the digestive system." The 'neuropathological hallmarks' found even in the youngest infant (11 months old) included nerve cell growths, and plaques and tangles formed by misfolded proteins in the brain.
‘Dramatic’ plunge in London air pollution since 2016, report finds - Air pollution in London has plunged since Sadiq Khan became mayor, with a 94% reduction in the number of people living in areas with illegal levels of nitrogen dioxide. The number of schools in such areas has fallen by 97%, from 455 in 2016 to 14 in 2019.Experts described the reductions as dramatic and said they showed the air pollution crisis was not intractable. More than 9,000 people in the capital were dying early each year due to dirty air in 2015.The report from the mayor of London, reviewed by scientists, shows that more than 2 million people in the capital lived with polluted air in 2016, but this fell to 119,000 in 2019. The report, which does not include the further falls in pollution seen after the Covid-19 lockdown began in March, shows levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by roads in central London fell by 44% between early 2017 and early 2020. The pollution cuts have been achieved by charges that have deterred dirty vehicles from entering the city centre and have driven up the use of cleaner vehicles. Putting low-emission buses on the dirtiest routes, ending the licensing of new diesel taxis and extending the amount of protected space for cycling have also contributed.However, Khan said there was still a long way to go, particularly as 99% ofLondon had particle pollution levels above the World Health Organization’s recommended limits, which are much tighter than the UK limit. Almost a quarter of roads in inner London – between the north and south circular roads – still exceed the legal limit for (NO2), which is mostly produced by diesels. But the ultralow emission zone (Ulez), in which charges are levied for polluting vehicles, is to be expanded to cover all of inner London from October 2021.Air pollution is the biggest environmental risk to health, according to the WHO, and it may be damaging every organ in the body, a comprehensive global review concluded in 2019. Most urban areas in the UK have had illegal levels of NO2 since 2010 and the government has repeatedly been defeated in the high court over the adequacy of its plans. There is also growing evidence that dirty air worsens infection and death rates from coronavirus, and that people from minority ethnic communities fare the worst. Those people are more likely to live in areas with high air pollution.
EPA Overdue in Weighing New York Air Quality Plans, Suit Says - The Environmental Protection Agency is taking too long to approve or reject New York’s plans to meet air quality standards, an environmental group says in a new lawsuit filed in federal court. The agency’s delay violates the mandatory deadlines set by the Clean Air Act, Our Children’s Earth Foundation says in its lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Under the act, the EPA sets National Ambient Air Quality Standards and states submit state implementation plans and revised SIPs to meet those standards. New York sent seven SIP submissions to the agency between...
Indigenous Leaders Furious After EPA Grants Oklahoma Control Over Sovereign Tribal Lands In a little-noticed development last week that drew ire after being reported Monday, the Trump administration's EPA granted the state of Oklahoma wide-ranging environmental regulatory control on nearly all tribal lands in the state, stripping dozens of tribes of their sovereignty over critical environmental issues.The Young Turks which first reported the news, obtained a copy of an October 1 letter from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler granting a request by Republican Gov. J. Kevin Stitt for control of environmental regulations on tribal land on a wide range of issues, including:
- Dumping hazardous waste—including formaldehyde; mercury; lead; asbestos; toxic air pollutants; per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS); pesticides; the herbicide glyphosate, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)—on tribal lands.
- Underground Injection Control, the EPA's fracking permitting system.
- Protecting major agricultural polluters, including large-scale factory farming operations.
Wheeler's letter acknowledges McGirt v. Oklahoma, in which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in July that much of eastern Oklahoma is Native American land. The new EPA move essentially means the state of Oklahoma now has the same rights as it did before McGirt. Attorney General William Barr has joined Republican leaders in seeking ways to undermine the landmark ruling.Cherokee Nation is now visible on Google Maps. It is the latest reservation added after a Supreme Court ruling in… https://t.co/G4yxXdRpJP The fossil fuel and industrial agriculture industries wield tremendous power in Oklahoma. The state Capitol—which was built on stolen Indigenous land—sits atop a large oil field and has a working oil rig on its grounds. The names of oil companies are also inscribed inside the building's dome.The EPA policy change—which affects some 38 Native American tribes—sparked anger among Indigenous leaders. After over 500 years of oppression, lies, genocide, ecocide, and broken treaties, we should have expected the EPA ruling in favor of racist Gov. Stitt of Oklahoma, yet it still stings," Casey Camp-Horinek, environmental ambassador and elder and hereditary drum keeper for the Ponca Tribe of Oklahoma, told TYT.
Unexplained Ecological Disaster in Russia Kills Scores of Marine Life - Local authorities in the eastern Russian city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy have been warning people against visiting the nearby Khalaktyrsky beach, after surfers complained of partially losing their eyesight and experiencing headaches, fevers and nausea when venturing into the water."I noticed the ocean had a strange taste and didn't smell like it usually does. My eyes hurt, I had a dry, scratchy throat and my body itched horribly," Anton Morozov, founder of local surfing school, Snowave, told DW.He and his team first noticed their symptoms in early September, but didn't associate them with the ocean until later in the month, when they reported them to the authorities.Since then, images of dead octopuses, seals, sea urchins and starfish littered along the beach have been shared on social media, with some beachgoers saying dead fish look as if they have been boiled.The authorities took samples from the ocean, where by the end of September, Morozov said a "yellowish-greenish liquid" had appeared along a 20 to 30-kilometer (12-18-mile) stretch of the shoreline.Local investigators are now looking into three main reasons for the water pollution, including a toxic spill, volcanic activity in the area and naturally occurring deadly algal blooms, governor of the Kamchatka region, Vladimir Solodov, told a press conference on Monday. On a video posted to Instagram, the governor said the situation was normalizing due to the ocean's unique ability to self-regenerate. The region's natural resources minister, Alexei Kumarkov, said tests on samples had thus far only detected unusually high levels of the chemical phenol and oil products in the water. However, later on Monday, Russia's Natural Resources Minister said that the pollution was unlikely to be manmade, the RIA news agency reported.
New ‘forever chemicals' contaminating the environment, regulators say - Earlier this year, federal and state researchers reported finding a new, potentially dangerous chemical in soil samples from multiple locations in New Jersey. The compound was a form of PFAS, a group of more than 5,000 chemicals that have raised concerns in recent years because of their potential link to learning delays in children and cancer, as well as their tendency to last in the environment for a long time.But the new revelations, reported in the June issue of Science magazine, stoked concerns among water-quality researchers and advocacy groups for other reasons, too. It underscored how easy it is for manufacturers to phase out their use of PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) once the substances have been regulated, and replace them with newer, related compounds that researchers know even less about. And it showed how difficult it is for regulators to track and oversee these new compounds. The authors of the Science report, from the Environmental Protection Agency and the New Jersey department of environmental protection (DEP), identified the West Deptford, New Jersey, plant of a company called Solvay Specialty Polymers USA, a division of the Belgian chemical giant Solvay SA, as the likely source of the contamination.Solvay, in a statement to Consumer Reports, denies it is responsible. But Solvay has been cited by the New Jersey DEP in the past for contamination of soil and water with an older, now-regulated PFAS compound. And the company has used a replacement PFAS at the facility for years, despite having failed to implement an official way for regulators or independent researchers to analyze whether the new compound is present in the environment, according to documents obtained by Consumer Reports through a public records request.
New Study: 15.5 Million Tons of Microplastics Litter Ocean Floor - Microplastics can be found everywhere from Antarctica to the Pyrenees. A significant amount of plastic waste ends up in the ocean, but very little has been known about how much ends up on the ocean floor — until now. A new study has found that the ocean floor contains nearly 15.5 tons of microplastics, CNN reported. Researchers from Australia's government science agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), examined microplastics on the ocean floor near the Great Australian Bight, a large expanse that comprises the bulk of the country's southwest coastline. The researchers used a robotic submarine to gather and analyze samples taken from six locations up to 236 miles off the coast, and up to almost 10,000 feet deep, reported CNN.The results, which were published Monday in Frontiers in Marine Science, revealed about 35 times more plastic at the bottom of the ocean than floating at the surface. In 51 samples taken between March and April 2017, researchers found an average of 1.26 microplastic pieces per gram of sediment, a concentration that's up to 25 times greater than any previous deep-sea study, CNN reported."Plastic pollution that ends up in the ocean deteriorates and breaks down, ending up as microplastics," Justine Barrett from CSIRO's Oceans and Atmosphere, who led the study, said in a statement in CNN. "The results show microplastics are indeed sinking to the ocean floor."Dr. Denise Hardesty, a principal research scientist at CSIRO and a co-author of the research, told The Guardian that finding microplastics in such remote locations and depths reveals the extent of global plastic pollution."This means it's throughout the water column. This gives us pause for thought about the world we live in and the impact of our consumer habits on what's considered a most pristine place," Dr. Hardesty told The Guardian. "We need to make sure the big blue is not a big trash pit. This is more evidence that we need to stop this at the source." The World Economic Forum has estimated that an entire garbage truck full of plastic is dumped into the ocean every minute, every day, The New Daily reported.
The Plastic Pandemic - The coronavirus pandemic has sparked a rush for plastic. From Wuhan to New York, demand for face shields, gloves, takeaway food containers and bubble wrap for online shopping has surged. Since most of that cannot be recycled, so has the waste.But there is another consequence. The pandemic has intensified a price war between recycled and new plastic, made by the oil industry. It’s a war recyclers worldwide are losing, price data and interviews with more than two dozen businesses across five continents show.“I really see a lot of people struggling,” Steve Wong, CEO of Hong-Kong based Fukutomi Recycling and chairman of the China Scrap Plastics Association told Reuters in an interview. “They don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel.”The reason: Nearly every piece of plastic begins life as a fossil fuel. The economic slowdown has punctured demand for oil. In turn, that has cut the price of new plastic.Already since 1950, the world has created 6.3 billion tonnes of plastic waste, 91% of which has never been recycled, according to a 2017 study published in the journal Science. Most is hard to recycle, and many recyclers have long depended on government support. New plastic, known to the industry as “virgin” material, can be half the price of the most common recycled plastic. Since COVID-19, even drinks bottles made of recycled plastic – the most commonly recycled plastic item – have become less viable. The recycled plastic to make them is 83% to 93% more expensive than new bottle-grade plastic, according to market analysts at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).The pandemic hit as politicians in many countries promised to wage war on waste from single-use plastics. China, which used to import more than half the world's traded plastic waste, banned imports of most of it in 2018. The European Union plans to ban many single-use plastic items from 2021. The U.S. Senate is considering a ban on single-use plastic and may introduce legal recycling targets.Plastic, most of which does not decompose, is a significant driver of climate change.The manufacture of four plastic bottles alone releases the equivalent greenhouse gas emissions of driving one mile in a car, according to the World Economic Forum, based on a study by the drinks industry. The United States burns six times more plastic than it recycles, according to research in April 2019 by Jan Dell, a chemical engineer and former vice chair of the U.S. Federal climate committee. But the coronavirus has accentuated a trend to create more, not less, plastic trash.
Explainer: Who Regulates U.S. Drinking Water, and How? - The Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) forms the foundation of federal oversight of public water systems — those that provide water to multiple homes or customers. Congress passed the landmark law in 1974 during a decade marked by accumulating evidence of cancer and other health damage caused by industrial chemicals that found their way into drinking water. The act authorized the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the first time to set national standards for contaminants in drinking water. The EPA has since developed standards for 91 contaminants, a medley of undesirable intruders that range from arsenic and nitrate to lead, copper and volatile organic chemicals like benzene. In 1996, amendments to the SDWA revised the process for developing drinking water standards, which limit the levels of specific contaminants. Nearly a quarter century after those amendments, an increasing number of policymakers and public health advocates today argue that the act is failing its mission to protect public health and is once again in need of major revision. The process for setting federal drinking water contaminant limits, which is overseen by the EPA, was not designed to be speedy. First, the EPA identifies a list of several dozen unregulated chemical and microbial contaminants that might be harmful. Then water utilities, which are in charge of water quality monitoring, test their treated water to see what shows up. The identification and testing is done on a five-year cycle. The EPA examines those results and, for at least five contaminants, as required by the SDWA, it determines whether a regulation is needed. Standards, in the end, are not purely based on health protection and sometimes are higher than the MCLG. These standards, except for lead, apply to water as it leaves the treatment plant or moves throughout the distribution system. They do not apply to water from a home faucet, which could be compromised by old plumbing.
New USDA Ruling Allows for Chicken to Be Produced From Diseased Birds - When the president invoked the Defense Production Act in April, to keep essential goods in production through the pandemic, it had some unexpected consequences on the food supply chain. The meat industry, in particular, has seen a significant deregulation. Rollbacks of safety measures such as plant inspection standards, meat labeling regulations, and farm pollution restrictions have taken place in service of preventing meat shortages and keeping the industry operational with fewer bureaucratic hoops to jump through.Now, as a direct result, the USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service said it will allow the sales of chicken meat made from birds that have had diseases. And yes, that's for human consumption.Bloomberg reports that in July, the agency accepted a petition from the National Chicken Council to allow slaughterhouses to process birds infected with Avian Leukosis. The infection causes a condition akin to cancer in chickens, where malignant tumors and lesions can develop.Not only will inspectors not be required to examine the first 300 birds of each flock for signs of the disease, but processors will also be allowed to simply cut the tumors off and process the rest of the bird. And eating meat of sub-par quality isn't the only negative outcome. Avian Leukosis is a rare but highly contagious disease that affects birds and poultry, and while it's unlikely to be transmitted from birds to humans, it isn't entirely impossible. According to Bloomberg, the indication of cross-species transmission comes from U.K. workers who were exposed to birds infected with the disease and have developed antibodies.
Bees Face ‘a Perfect Storm’ — Parasites, Air Pollution and Other Emerging Threats - Bees are facing a pandemic of their own. A collection of threats — habitat loss, pathogens, pesticides, pollution and poor nutrition — have led to widespread decline in bee health and pollinator populations. The threats add up: The number of commercial honeybee colonies declined by more than quarter million between April and June 2020, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Nativebees are at risk, too, with 1 in 4 native species in North America at risk of extinction. "There's been a lot of research looking into the causes, and usually, humans try and look for the magic bullet — what is the one thing causing this problem that we can stop? And the research has shown that it's actually a collection of things." A single-cell fungal pathogen called Nosema is one of the latest threats. Nosema reproduces in the gut, where it ruptures, spreads out and then infects the cells of the digestive tracts. It leads to lethargy, reduced foraging ability, poor sense of direction and, often, death. Although Nosema apis and Nosema ceranae — two strains of the fungi — have been regularly recorded in Europe, North America and Southeast Asia, the pathogen is now more widespread than ever, according to recent research published in the journal PLOS Pathogens. Grupe was the lead author. Grupe notes that N. apis, once the dominant strain affecting commercial bee colonies, was observed to be seasonal, which helped protect against total colony collapse. The increasing export of commercial beehives from Europe, however, has expanded the distribution of the problematic pathogen.At the same time, reports of N. ceranae have increased dramatically — and it infects hives all year long."Historically, it was thought that Nosema ceranae wasn't so much of a problem because its spores can't survive freezing or near-freezing temperatures," he explains. "But as winters have become milder these spores are able to persist and then cause infection, and Nosema ceranae has overtaken Nosema apis as the predominant infect of European honeybees." Once a bee is infected with Nosema, it can contaminate entire colonies — where social distancing is not an option — and spread that infection to the wild. Infected honeybees can leave spores on flowers, transmitting the pathogen to other susceptible pollinators, including native bees. This "community spread" has led Grupe and his co-author C. Alisha Quandt to declare it a "pandemic" in their paper.
1,500 Birds Flew Into Skyscrapers In Philadelphia Last Week As More Have Died In Weeks From Unknown Causes Across US -- 1,500 birds died after flying into several skyscrapers in Philadelphia last week, leaving many shocked as to why, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported. The incident occurred in Center City, Philadelphia, on Friday last week and was only discovered after a bystander Stephen Maciejewski was walking down the sidewalk only to notice the dead birds piled up. Maciejewski told the Philadelphia Inquirer his story. “So many birds were falling out of the sky, we didn’t know what was going on,” he said, choking up. “It was a really catastrophic event. The last time something like this happened was in 1948.” Maciejewski told the Inquirer that he had collected just 400 birds between 5 and 8 a.m. in the radius he regularly covers roughly spanning 17th to 19th Streets between Market Street and JFK Boulevard. “There were so many, I was picking up five at a time,” Maciejewski said. “One guy from building maintenance dumped 75 living and dead birds in front of me as if it were a collection.” So why so many birds? According to Maciejewski “It’s complicated.” However, it appears weather events lined up during what was likely the peak of migratory birds’ flight from Canada, Maine, Upstate New York, and elsewhere toward Central and South America. A sudden plunge in temperatures could have encouraged the birds to start their flights en-masse. But ultimately we don’t know and it could be any number of factors. This year alone thousands of birds have been found dead falling out of the sky if 2020 wasn’t weird enough. Scientists have even reported a mass die-off of migratory birds across the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Researchers estimate hundreds of thousands to possibly up to a million birds have died in recent weeks. Scientists say they are unsure of the exact reasons for the deaths, but say, several factors including climate change and the ongoing wildfires could be possible reasons for the deaths, Insider reported.Avian ecologist Martha Desmond, of New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, called the die-off “unprecedented.” Desmond said scientists are unsure how many birds are dying but has said the number could easily be in the “hundreds of thousands”, according to NBC.“It’s enormous, the extent of this,” Desmond told Audubon. “We haven’t counted all the species yet, but there are lots of species involved.”Online reports show mass deaths in New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and as far north as Nebraska, as well as in four states in Mexico, and include migratory species as varied as owls, hummingbirds, loons, and woodpeckers, many of which were migrating south to wintering grounds.Many of the dead birds have little fat reserves or muscle mass remaining, and some seem to have literally dropped from the sky mid-flight. “It could be a combination of things. It could be something that’s still completely unknown to us,” Allison Salas, a graduate student at New Mexico State University, told The Guardian. “The fact that we’re finding hundreds of these birds dying, just kind of falling out of the sky is extremely alarming … The volume of carcasses that we have found has literally given me chills.”
Trump's USDA Sued Over Mass Killing of Native Wildlife - Days after federal data revealed taxpayers funded the killing of 1.2 million native animal species in 2019, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Wildlife Services program was sued Thursday over what conservation advocates decry as a cruel and misguided annual extermination spree."Wildlife Services is infamous for the scope and cruelty of its killing campaigns across the nation," Chris Smith, southern Rockies wildlife advocate for WildEarth Guardians, said in a statement."To carry out such a horrific onslaught on native wildlife in the midst of a mass extinction event and a climate crisis, without any real knowledge of the impact," added Smith, "is utterly outrageous."The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico by WildEarth Guardians and accuses Wildlife Services (WS) of running afoul of various federal regulations stipulated by the National Environmental Policy Act, Council on Environmental Quality regulations, and Administrative Procedure Act.According to the court filing, the program has failed to provide an Environmental Impact Statement on the program's impact on key ecosytems, nor has it provided timely supplemental analysis mandated by law. As such, the document states, WS is disregarding "new scientific publications on the ineffectiveness of lethal predator control and the negative cascading ecological consequences of removing keystone species from their native ecosystems," according to the filing. WS purportedly exists "to resolve wildlife conflicts to allow people and wildlife to coexist." But Smith explains the agency's raison d'etre quite differently. "They are good at one thing—killing animals," Smith told Common Dreams, adding that the program is "still operating on data and science and ideas that are 20, 30, 40 years old." The lawsuit explains WS in this way: Every year, Wildlife Services—a program within the USDA—poisons, traps, and guns down several of our nation's most majestic animals, including wolves, bears, coyotes, and mountain lions in a futile attempt to save livestock and other "resources." Funded with millions of taxpayer dollars, and without modern scientific support, this program uses cruel and often archaic methods to capture and kill wildlife from their native ecosystems, largely at the behest of livestock producers. Across New Mexico, Wildlife Services uses fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters to aerially shoot coyotes; body-gripping traps, neck snares and leg-hold traps to kill mountain lions, black bears, bobcats, badgers, coyotes, skunks, and swift and gray foxes; gas cartridges and poisons to exterminate coyotes, foxes, and prairie dogs in their dens; sodium cyanide M-44 devices to kill canines like foxes and coyotes; and other poisons to eliminate native birds like ravens. Family pets and federally-protected endangered and threatened species have been and will continue to be accidentally injured or killed by the agency's indiscriminate killing methods. The latest annual tally of the animals killed by WS—including 1,258,738 native species— drew condemnation from WildEarth Guardians, with Samantha Bruegger, the group's Wildlife Coexistence Campaigner, saying in a statement Wednesday: "This mass slaughter is carried out in our backyards, on public lands, and in beloved parks; there is no limit to the program's reach."
Rising waters threaten Great Lakes communities Along a shoreline that stretches farther than the combined length of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, waters driven by climate change have risen as much as 6 feet in less than a decade, washing away houses, destroying roads and threatening critical infrastructure such as water treatment plants in towns large and small. The ongoing disaster striking the coastal communities of the Great Lakes hasn't captured national attention like hurricanes and wildfires in other parts of the country. But from Duluth to Chicago to Cleveland to Buffalo, leaders are reeling from untold billions in damage - and the prospect that climate change will make things worse in the years to come. In the eight Great Lakes states, officials at every level along 4,500 miles of coastline are scrambling to save what they can from the rising water, competing for scarce state and federal dollars and rubber-stamping permits to build private seawalls at an unprecedented pace. Scientists say the only long-term solution, as climate change causes erosion and higher highs - and lower lows - in lake levels, is to retreat from the shoreline. But few in the region are willing to have that conversation. "People are always looking for a technical fix so they don't have to change the way they're behaving," said Paul Roebber, an atmospheric science researcher at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee. There are no easy answers. Communities don't have the money to buy out properties that are threatened by the lakes - especially as they try to save their own infrastructure - and there's little appetite to use public money to help private landowners. But without a government-backed plan to retreat from the eroding coast, property owners have a legal right to defend their homes and continue armoring the shoreline.
World record waterspout outbreak over the Great Lakes (video) 232 waterspouts/funnels have been confirmed over the Great Lakes from September 28 to October 4, 2020, in the second world record waterspout outbreak of the year, according to the International Center for Waterspout Research (ICWR).
- From August 16 to 19, 2020, a short-lived waterspout outbreak produced 88 funnels, setting a new world record waterspout outbreak -- the first of the year.
- Both outbreaks were a result of Canadian cold air sweeping over the region, which made surface air prone to rise.
"There were an average of 33 per day," said ICWR director Wade Szilagyi, also a meteorologist at Environment Canada. "That’s why I label it as a world record. You have to take into account the period." Szilagyi noted that the number is remarkable and he has "never heard of anything like that." David Piano, a storm chaser and a photographer, said he witnessed 38 waterspouts over a five-hour period. Both outbreaks resulted from cold air from Canada, which swept over the lakes, Szilagyi said. This enhanced low-level lapse rates or the drop-off of temperature with height, making the surface air susceptible to rise.
Claiming Superfund ‘Success,’ Trump EPA Neglected Climate Planning - For the last two years of the Obama administration, Jacob Carter built data models at the Environmental Protection Agency that showed how extreme weather events amplified by climate change threatened hundreds of the nation’s worst toxic waste dumps, known as Superfund sites. But when President Donald Trump took office in 2017, everything changed at the EPA. Trump was a climate change denier, and soon the words “climate change” were excised from agency policy. It didn’t take long for the knock on Carter’s door.A senior official in his office, who could see where the EPA was heading, told him, “You should start looking for a new job,” Carter said.While Trump rescinded an Obama executive order that made climate change preparedness a national priority, his first EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, impressed some environmental activists by going after some corporate polluters and saying he intended to put Superfund cleanups “at the center of the agency’s core mission.” Pruitt lasted just 18 scandal-marred months and left behind a Superfund program that largely failed to build upon that early promise, according to environmental advocates and former EPA officials. Trump’s EPA dropped climate change planning and proposed cutting the Superfund budget to its lowest level (in 2019 dollars) since the program began in the 1980s.Pruitt’s successor, Andrew Wheeler, a former coal industry lobbyist, told Congress in February that the EPA had “cleaned up more Superfund sites in the last three years than the Obama administration did in their first term.”But an investigation by InsideClimate News, the Texas Observer, and NBC News, based on interviews with more than 50 experts inside and outside of government and a review of thousands of pages of EPA records, found that virtually all of those cleanups had begun decades earlier.The backlog of Superfund sites awaiting funding for cleanup, meanwhile, has now grown to 34, the highest number in 15 years, as Trump has proposed cutting the Superfund budget by $112 million in fiscal year 2021.Even though Superfund sites are more likely to be located in communities where most residents aren’t white, one environmental nonprofit reported in late 2019 that 65 percent of the 55 sites the Trump administration had targeted for expedited cleanup were in majority white neighborhoods. Ten of those sites were in communities that were more than 90 percent white, the report from the Center for Health, Environment and Justice found.
Battered, Flooded and Submerged: Many Superfund Sites are Dangerously Threatened by Climate Change —Fred Barrett thought he'd wait out Hurricane Harvey at his home in this town outside Houston, founded by his great-grandfather in 1889. He prepared for heavy rain, wind and flooding. But when the murky brown San Jacinto River jumped its banks, flooding Barrett's neighbors and an ominous cluster of four hazardous waste Superfund sites nearby, Barrett worried the catastrophic 2017 storm could fill his community with deadly toxins. The most notorious of the sites, the San Jacinto Waste Pits, was smashed by 16 feet of water that undermined a concrete cap covering the site's toxic contents, washing dioxin downriver. A dive team from the Environmental Protection Agency later found the potent human carcinogen in river sediment at 2,300 times the agency's standard for cleanup. Several miles upriver, Barrett, a historically Black town, shares a wooded area with the French Limited Superfund site. That toxic dump was built so close to the Barrett family homestead that, as a young man, Fred Barrett could hear the rumble of tractor-trailers hauling chemical waste, including carcinogens, down the Gulf Pump Road to a foul pond. Like the San Jacinto Waste Pits, the French Limited site was also inundated by Hurricane Harvey, leading Barrett, 67, and his neighbors to worry that its contaminants had spread. The EPA did not report any leakage, but he and other residents wondered what the floodwaters could have carried offsite. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) warned in a report last year that French Limited was among 945 Superfund sites across the United States vulnerable to hurricanes, flooding, sea level rise, increased precipitation or wildfires, all of which are intensifying as the planet warms. Far from a theoretical future threat, the Superfund sites are a clear and present danger. But the Trump administration no longer makes reference to climate change in addressing these risks at Superfund sites, InsideClimate News, the Texas Observer and NBC News found in an investigation of the Superfund program and the EPA's response to climate-related threats. Reporters interviewed more than 50 experts inside and outside of government, reviewed thousands of pages of EPA records and analyzed federal data on Superfund sites to determine the extent of the danger to human health and the environment and the missed opportunities to mitigate it. More than 700 of the 945 sites vulnerable to climate change are in 100-year flood plains, meaning they have a chance of 1 percent or more of flooding in any given year, and over 80 regularly flood at high tide or are already permanently submerged. Forty-nine of the sites face triple threats—they are in 100-year flood plains, regularly flood and are vulnerable to hurricanes, according to EPA and GAO data. The San Jacinto Waste Pits site is on the triple threat list, as is the LCP Chemical site on coastal marshlands in Glynn County, Georgia, which is contaminated by mercury and PCBs.
Judge Tosses EPA Plan to Dredge and Fill Bay Area Salt Ponds --A federal judge in a U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California vacated a decision by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to dredge and fill salt ponds in Redwood City, a town on the San Francisco Bay, as the AP reported.The judge in the case, William Alsup, determined on Monday that the EPA made a miscalculation in how the Clean Water Act is applied when it decided that large developments on the salt ponds were exempt from the act's regulations, according to Courthouse News.In arguments, the EPA made the bold claim that the Redwood City Salt Ponds were a unique case upon which the judge lacked the expertise to decide, and therefore should defer to the EPA's wisdom. The EPA also argued that it relied on previous federal court decisions to determine that the salt ponds were not protected. Those two arguments struck the judge as contradictory."Either there is precedent or there is not," Alsup wrote in a 21-page ruling, as Courthouse News reported. "This order holds that there is precedent and that EPA headquarters misapplied that precedent."The Redwood City Salt Ponds are south of San Francisco, between Palo Alto and San Mateo. They are 1,365 acres owned by the food giant Cargill. Cargill said it wanted to build a 12,000 unit housing development in 2009, but reversed course after a groundswell of opposition arose, as the AP reported.The ponds are tidal pools and marshlands used for salt mining operations. If the Salt Ponds did not have protection under the Clean Water Act, they could be dredged, filled and developed.Environmental activists, including Save the Bay, San Francisco Baykeeper, Committee for Green Foothills and Citizens' Committee to Complete the Refuge, joined California's attorney general in filing suit against the EPA, as Courthouse News and KTVU in Oakland reported."This is an important victory for protecting clean water in our communities. And it's a good reminder to the Trump Administration that it can't use the San Francisco Bay as its political playground," Attorney General Xavier Becerra said in a statement, as the AP reported. "The EPA can't ignore its own scientists and come up with an arbitrary rule that opens the door for development of a vital ecosystem."
Almost All Seafloor Life in Part of Russia's Kamchatka Region Wiped Out in 'Environmental Disaster' - The carcasses of sea creatures have washed up on the beaches of Kamchatka in eastern Russia, amid an unexpected mass death of marine animals that has been labeled an "environmental disaster" by one underwater photographer at the scene.Images posted on social media appear to show dead octopuses, crabs and seals in the normally pristine remote Russian region on the Pacific Ocean coast. Those who frequent the beaches in the area have also complained of getting fever, rashes and swollen eyelids after going in the water. According to reports, the water changed color, acquired a strange smell and began to foam on the surface. "Everything became blurry as if I was in a fog," Maksim Ionov wrote on Instagram after surfing on Khalaktyrsky beach, in the region. "I was scared and did not understand what was happening. I was even scared I would wake up blind," he added.An expedition team of scientists from the Kronotsky Nature Reserve, the Kamchatka Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography and the Kamchatka branch of the Pacific Institute of Geography took water samples and surveyed the area.Scientists found almost all of the marine life along the seabed in Avancha Bay had been killed, according to an account by researcher Ivan Usatov."When diving, we found that at depths from 10 to 15 meters...95 percent are dead. Some large fish, shrimps, crabs have survived, but in very small quantities," he said, according to the website of the regional governor, Vladimir Solodov.The underwater photographer Alexander Korobok, who was on the expedition, said: "After this dive, I can confirm that there is an environmental disaster."The ecosystem has been significantly undermined and this will have long-term consequences, since everything in nature is interconnected," he added.Russia's emergencies ministry is investigating the waters amid speculation that the cause of the contamination came from two nearby military test sites, perhaps by the leakage of rocket fuel, although this has been rejected by Kamchatka's governor.Another theory, Radio Free Europe reported, suggests a fuel leak from one of the ships that come through the waters near the Bering Sea could have been responsible.The Russian branch of the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) said the death of animals suggested both a surface contamination of the ocean and the release of a chemical that had diluted in the water. Meanwhile, Greenpeace Russia's climate project leader, Vasily Yablokov, said he believed that a pollutant, not only on the surface but also in the water, is moving along the coast. He told The Moscow Times that tests showed petroleum levels were four times higher than usual and phenol levels were 2.5 times higher.
Floods and landslides leave 4 missing, over 200 houses submerged in West Java, Indonesia - Heavy downpours struck West Java, Indonesia, on Saturday, October 3, 2020, triggering floods and landslides that left four people missing and more than 200 houses submerged, according to disaster agency officials. In Cianjur District, a river overflowed due to heavy rains, inundating houses in the surrounding areas, said the local disaster management agency's senior official, Kuswara Retana. The floods affected the four sub-districts of Leles, Cijati, Sindangbarang, and Agrabinta, said District Disaster Mitigation Office (BPBD) secretary Irfan Sopyan. Leles was the worst-hit sub-district, where floodwaters have reached 2 m (6.5 feet). As per preliminary data acquired form disaster response volunteers in Leles, more than 200 houses were submerged.Around 10 houses and a bridge were damaged, forcing hundreds of residents to evacuate and take refuge in neighbors and mosques. At least four people went missing after being swept away by raging waters. According to Retana, one of the victims was reportedly dead but his body was yet to be found. "The 2 m (6.5 feet) high floodwaters submerged most houses in the villages of Pusakasari, Karyamukti, Sindangsari, and Nagasari, Leles Sub-district." Rescue crews have been deployed to the scene to assist flood victims and for search operations, said Seni Wulandari, an official from the provincial search and rescue office. Meanwhile, landslides hit three areas in the province, making roads inaccessible, especially those that lead to disaster-hit locations.
Storm Alex hits Europe with extremely heavy rain and destructive winds (videos, satellite) Storm Alex made landfall in France on October 2, 2020, with powerful winds and extremely heavy rains. It caused severe floods in France and Italy, with some of them described as the worst in living memory. At least 2 people have died and 34 remain missing in both countries.French authorities confirmed 18 people missing, including 2 firefighters, after devastating flooding along the French Riviera coast and inland areas where rivers burst their banks, destroying bridges and flooding roads.A red weather warning was issued for the Alpes-Maritimes department, where Alex dropped up to 500.2 mm (19.69 inches) in some areas in just 24 hours. The only time this region saw more rain was on October 3, 2015, when floods left 20 people dead in and around the French Riviera city of Cannes.Firefighters in Alpes-Maritimes said they had been called more than 380 times overnight October 2 - 3.Authorities in Nice said early Saturday they have 9 people missing and 3 others feared to be missing. Later in the day, the mayor of Nice -- Christian Estrosi -- said two bodies had been found and identified. More than 100 homes were destroyed in a number of villages around Nice where catastrophic damage was reported. Estrosi described it as the 'worst flooding in living memory.'
Damaging tornado hits Antwerp, Belgium - A tornado ripped through the city of Antwerp in Belgium on Monday, October 5, 2020. Numerous trees were downed, while at least one house suffered considerable damage. No injuries were reported.The twister formed Monday afternoon, north of Antwerp. It then moved towards Keren, Brasschaat, and Kapellen. According to witnesses, the violent storm knocked down many trees along its path. A weeping willow was uprooted, inflicting damage to a house in Heidestraat. Other material properties were also damaged, such as garden furniture. "What we saw this afternoon in Antwerp was a beautiful example of a wall cloud in a supercell, a heavy type of thunderstorm," explained weather specialist Martijn Peters of DPG Media. "A wall cloud is created where the air is sucked up in the thunderstorm. The air cools down quickly and also condenses quickly, causing clouds to form at a lower altitude. So part of the cloud hangs lower than the rest, as it were, which is then called the wall cloud." Peters added, "With supercell thunderstorms, the wind speeds and directions are very different in the top and bottom layer, resulting in rotation. And that looks spectacular when the whole wall cloud starts to spin.""Fortunately, this does not happen often in Belgium, and certainly not in the autumn period."
Death toll caused by Storm Alex rises to 15, 21 still missing in France and Italy - The number of fatalities caused by heavy rain and strong winds produced by Storm Alex from October 2 to 4, 2020, has risen to 15 on October 7, with 21 people still missing. The storm caused very strong winds and dropped exceptionally heavy rains, with some regions receiving their yearly average in less than 24 hours. More rain is forecast in the affected areas over the coming days.
- Storm Alex caused devastating landslides and floods, destroyed homes, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, causing power, communication, and running water outages in both France and Italy.
- The number of casualties in France rose to 4 and in Italy to 8 by October 7. At least 21 people are still missing.
- Strong gusts caused each one death in Austria, Poland, and the Czech Republic, bringing the death toll to 15.
- This is the first named storm of the 2020/21 European windstorm season (September 1, 2020 - August 31, 2021).
Alex underwent explosive cyclogenesis before making landfall in western France on October 2, with winds up to 142 km/h (88 mph). As it moved inland, Alex started dropping extremely heavy rain on parts of France and Italy, especially their mountainous border region. According to local media reports, at least 8 people were killed in Liguria and Piemonte, Italy, with landslides damaging infrastructure and homes. The region registered as much as 630 mm (24.8 inches) of rain in a 24 hour period, according to the Italian civil protection agency. 21 people are still missing and 4 are confirmed dead in France. The storm dropped up to 500.2 mm (19.69 inches) in some areas of the French Alpes-Maritimes region in just 24 hours, generally from 250 to 300 mm (9.8 to 11.8 inches). The only time this region saw more rain was on October 3, 2015, when floods left 20 people dead in and around the French Riviera city of Cannes. Catastrophic damage, described by authorities as 'worst in living memory,' was reported around Nice. Météo-France reported a maximum of 571 mm (22.5 inches) in 24 hours in Mons, west of Nice.
Tropical Storm "Gamma" claims 6 lives, stalls near the coast of Yucatan - Tropical Storm "Gamma" made landfall near Tulum, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico over the weekend with near-hurricane force winds and very heavy rain, claiming the lives of at least 6 people and forcing thousands to evacuate. Gamma made landfall near Tulum at 16:45 UTC on Saturday, October 3, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph). According to Mexico's civil defense agency, 4 people, including 2 children, died in Chiapas after a landslide buried their home. Two people drowned in separate incidents in Tabasco, the worst affected state where more than 3 400 residents evacuated to shelters.At 06:00 UTC on October 5, the center of Tropical Storm "Gamma" was located about 290 km (180 miles) ENE of Progreso and 265 km (165 miles) NNW of Cozumel, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and minimum central pressure of 999 hPa. Gamma was moving W at just 4 km/h (2 mph). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for areas north and west of Cancun to Dzilam, Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch for areas west of Dzilam to Campeche, Mexico.The storm is expected to drop an additional 75 - 150 mm (3 to 6 inches) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 205 mm (8 inches), across portions of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.
Delta strengthens into a hurricane, forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf Coast - Tropical Storm "Delta" strengthened into a hurricane at 00:00 UTC on Tuesday, October 6, 2020, becoming the 9th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season. Only 3 other Atlantic seasons in the satellite era, since 1966, have produced 9 or more hurricanes by October 5 -- 1995, 2004 and 2005.
- Delta is strengthening on its way toward the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, and is expected to produce dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula beginning Tuesday night (LT).
- According to the NHC, heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning early Tuesday.
- Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta.
- The system is forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf Coast late this week. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is currently tied with the 1916 Atlantic hurricane season for most continental US named storm landfalls in a season on record -- 9 landfalls.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, Mexico, and Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Isle of Youth, Punta Herrero to Tulum, and Rio Lagartos to Progresso. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of La Habana.
Hurricane Delta Breaks Record for Earliest 25th Named Storm - The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has broken another record.Hurricane Delta became the earliest 25th named storm of any hurricane season when it strengthened rapidly from a tropical depression Monday, USA TODAY reported. It was a tropical storm by Monday morning, a hurricane by Monday night and a Category 2 hurricane by early Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)."Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday," the NHC warned in an 8 a.m. EDT update. 8 AM EDT Tuesday Update: Hurricane #Delta continues to rapidly strengthen and now has maximum winds of 110 mph. Add… https://t.co/RSJ9BIyBI6— National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)1601986540.0 The storm could intensify to a Category 4 before it hits the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, CNN meteorologist Michael Guy predicted. It could then make landfall along the Gulf Coast by Saturday morning. It is expected to land somewhere between the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a Category 3 storm, though this could change in the coming days. Still, Louisiana Gov. John Edwards warned coastal areas to prepare now. "It is common for many people to experience hurricane fatigue during a busy season, but we need everyone to take this threat seriously," Edwards said, as CNN reported.The state already weathered a major hurricane once this year when Laura rammed the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 storm. But first, Delta threatens the Yucatan, where at least six people died last weekend in Tropical Storm Gamma, as USA TODAY reported.
Hurricane Delta Fastest on Record to Rapidly Intensify From Tropical Depression to Category 4 in Atlantic Basin - Hurricane Delta underwent extraordinary rapid intensification from a tropical depression to Category 4 hurricane in less than two days' time over the Caribbean Sea, smashing an Atlantic Basin record.Delta was first born as Tropical Depression Twenty-Six late Sunday night while it was only 75 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.By Monday morning, it was already Tropical Storm Delta, the 25th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.Then Delta shifted into beast mode, undergoing rapid intensification, a term meteorologists use to describe a tropical cyclone whose maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.Late Monday evening, Delta became a hurricane. By late Tuesday morning, Delta flexed into a Category 4 powerhouse.Delta went from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in just over 36 hours from Sunday night to late Tuesday morning. In that time, Delta's pressure plunged 52 millibars and its maximum sustained winds skyrocketed from 35 mph to 130. That's the fastest tropical-depression-to-Category-4 intensification rate on record in the Atlantic Basin, according to Sam Lillo, a NOAA scientist based in Boulder, Colorado, and Tomer Burg, a PhD candidate at the University of Oklahoma. The satellite loop of this rapid intensification was equally stunning, beginning with a disheveled mess of a tropical depression to a compact powerhouse of a hurricane. The supply of very warm water not simply at the surface, but also at some depth, was greater over the western Caribbean Sea than anywhere else in the Atlantic Basin. This warm water served as a reservoir of heat and moisture for Delta to feed on. Wind shear – the change in wind speed and/or direction with height that can rip apart a fledgling tropical storm wannabe – was noticeably absent over the area through its rapid intensification phase, before reemerging later Tuesday.That tiny core was another key to its explosive growth. Small tropical cyclones can concentrate the heat release in their cores, allowing for more rapid strengthening than a larger storm. By Tuesday afternoon, Delta's eye had shrunk to only 4 nautical miles wide.
All the Records the 2020 Hurricane Season has Broken So Far - The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been hyperactive with 25 named storms, including nine hurricanes, spinning across much of the Atlantic basin. Those storms have set several records through early October. Here's a look at what we've seen so far.Twenty-two of the 25 storms through Oct. 5 had their earliest formation date on record. Arthur, Bertha and Dolly are the only letters represented in the list of names that did not have a record-early formation date.For perspective, the average formation date of the Atlantic's 9th named storm is Oct. 4 for the years spanning 1966 to 2009, according to the National Hurricane Center. We are 16 named storms ahead of that pace as of early October. Nine named storms have made a mainland U.S. landfall this season, and four of those were hurricanes. The nine mainland U.S. landfalls tie 1916 for the most on record in a season, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. Hurricane Delta is likely to break this record as the 10th U.S. landfall later this week. Sept. 18, 2020, will be known in history for a frenetic burst of three Atlantic named storm formations in just six hours. Tropical Storm Wilfred formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that morning. That was followed by Subtropical Storm Alpha developing just prior to landfall in Portugal, and then Tropical Storm Beta spinning up in the Gulf of Mexico.Klotzbach said Aug. 15, 1893, was the only other day in which three storms formed on the same calendar day.The Atlantic had five active tropical cyclones for a brief time on Sept. 14, including Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy and Tropical Depression Twenty-One. While that's not a record, it's only the second time the Atlantic basin has had five or more tropical cyclones at one time.
Hurricane "Delta" heads toward Louisiana, after leaving at least 9 people dead in Mexico - Delta made landfall at 10:45 UTC on October 7, 2020, along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, near Puerto Morelos, as a high-end Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph). The storm is now heading toward Louisiana, U.S., with landfall expected before 19:00 LT on Friday, October 9.
- Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast, NHC forecasters warned. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion.
- Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.
- Delta is forecast to be the record 10th US landfalling tropical cyclone in a single season, beating 9 landfalls in 1916.
- Areas along the Northern Gulf Coast are at risk for impacts while still dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes Laura and Sally.
The storm weakened into a Category 1 hurricane as it moved over Yucatan, damaging trees and powerlines, and causing other structural damage throughout the peninsula.A 65-years-old man died in Tizimin before the arrival of the storm after falling from the second floor of his house during preparations. Two others were injured in separate incidents before Delta's arrival.At least 9 people were killed in Yucatan, Tabasco, and Chiapas States after floods and landslides. Over 35 000 people have been evacuated to temporary evacuation centers in Yucatan. Delta strengthened back to a Category 2 hurricane by 06:00 UTC on October 8. At the time, its center was located 780 km (485 miles) SSE of Cameron, Louisiana, U.S. The system had maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (100 mph) and minimum central pressure of 973 hPa.
Hurricane Delta makes landfall on Louisiana coast - live updates - Hurricane Delta, now a Category 1 storm, made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, on Friday evening, with nearly 11 million people in the storm's path. The hurricane is bringing 100 mph winds, with a "life-threatening" surge of seawater that could hit communities miles inland, according to forecasters. The hurricane struck the Gulf Coast as a Category 2 storm, but was downgraded to a Category 1 about an hour later. It's expected to weaken into a tropical storm and eventually into a tropical depression on Saturday. As the storm moves north, some areas in Louisiana could get a foot of rain. The hurricane is threatening the same region that was devastated by Hurricane Laura just six weeks ago. Recovery from that Category 4 storm will likely be set back by weeks. Earlier this week, the hurricane barreled through the Mexican resort areas of Cozumel and Cancun where it caused some streets to collapse and knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses. More than 350,000 people are experiencing power outages in Louisiana, according to poweroutage.us. The most outages have been reported in the cities of Vermillion and Beauregard.In Texas, more than 100,000 are without power, according to the website. Strong winds from Hurricane Delta are spreading across Louisiana, hours after the storm made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane. Opelousas St. Landry Parish Airport — which is more than 50 miles inland — has reported a gust of 64 mph, and sustained winds of 39 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm, now located about 10 miles north of Jennings, Louisiana, has maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph, the hurricane center said. The mayor of Lake Charles, Louisiana, said Friday night that tarps that were put up to protect buildings damaged six weeks ago by Hurricane Laura are now flying off in Hurricane Delta's strong winds. Mayor Nic Hunter told The Associated Press that tarps were being ripped away from rooftops after Delta made landfall Friday evening as a Category 2 hurricane. He also said piles of unsecured debris from Laura are also being tossed about in Delta's high winds.
Category 2 Hurricane "Delta" makes landfall in Louisiana, U.S. - Hurricane "Delta" made landfall near Creole, Louisiana at 23:00 UTC on October 9, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (100 mph), making it a Category 2 hurricane.The storm had a minimum central pressure of 970 hPa at the time of landfall and was moving NNE at 22 km/h (14 mph).This is the second hurricane to hit the same region o f Louisiana in 43 days, after Laura on August 27. Delta landed just 22 km (14 miles) east of Cameron, where Laura made landfall. While storm surge inundated coastal areas, powerful winds downed trees and powerlines, leaving more than 641 000 customers in Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi are without power, as of 06:30 UTC on October 10.At least 5 Louisiana Parishes issued mandatory evacuation ahead of landfall, including Calcasieu and Cameron. As of 03:00 UTC on October 10, Delta was moving toward the NNE near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning, followed by NE motion through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 55 km (35 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 km (160 miles).Delta weakened into a tropical storm at 06:00 UTC. At the time, its center was located about 25 km (15 miles) ESE of Alexandria, Louisiana.Delta is the first Category 2+ hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana in October since Category 2 Hurricane "Hilda" in 1964.It is the 10th named storm to make landfall in the continental U.S. (CONUS) this year - the most in a single Atlantic hurricane season on record. Prior to 2020, the most named storms to make landfall in the continental U.S. was 9 -- set in 1916, Dr. Philip Klotzbach noted.The 9 previous landfalling storms in 2020 are Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta.Delta is the 5th hurricane to make landfall in CONUS this year, along with Hanna, Isaias, Laura, and Sally.This is the most CONUS hurricane landfalls in a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2005.Delta is also the 2nd hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana this season, after Laura. 2020 is now is the first year with multiple hurricane landfalls in Louisiana since 2005. Cindy, Katrina and Rita made landfall that year. Louisiana has now had four named storm landfalls in 2020 (Cristobal, Laura, Marco and Delta), tying 2020 with 2002 for the most Louisiana named storm landfalls in a single season on record. In 2002, Bertha, Hanna, Isidore and Lili made landfall in Louisiana, Klotzbach noted
Delta leaves soggy mess in already storm-battered Louisiana (Reuters) - Coastal Louisianans on Saturday surveyed the damage left by the wind and water that Hurricane Delta raked across their already storm-battered homes even as it weakened quickly after coming ashore and moved rapidly toward the northeast. Hundreds of thousands of residents were left without power after Delta made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour (161 kph) on Friday near the town of Creole. By Saturday morning, however, Delta barely ranked as tropical storm with winds down to 40 miles per hour (65 kph), although it continued bringing heavy rains to northeastern Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported. The storm brought local flooding of streets and riverbanks after closely tracking the path of destruction left by more powerful Hurricane Laura, which came ashore in late August with 150-mph (241-kph) winds. “Though Delta may have been a ‘weaker’ storm than Laura, Delta has been more of a water event than a wind event,” Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter wrote on Facebook on Saturday. With his entire city without power, Hunter urged residents who had evacuated to stay away for at least another day. Laura damaged tens of thousands of homes, leaving roofs across the region dotted with protective blue tarpaulins and more than 6,000 people living temporarily in hotels. Delta spared many of the rooftop tarps that were still up, but it flooded some streets and littered others with downed trees and branches street. “Laura was much worse,” said Lake Charles resident Matthew Williams, 49. “This was more rain than wind.” Slideshow ( 4 images ) Williams, who had just gotten his power back about a week and a half ago after the outage left by Laura, said he rode out the storm at his home which escaped damage in both storms. By mid-morning on Saturday, some 575,000 customers across Louisiana were without power, down from nearly 600,000, according to PowerOutage.US, which tracks disruptions across the United States. No deaths were immediately reported, but authorities cautioned that many storm-related fatalities occur from accidental falls during cleanup or from carbon monoxide poisoning from improper use of home generators. “With power outages across the state, it’s important for everyone using portable generators to do so safely,” Governor John Bel Edwards said on Twitter. As Delta made its way over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, energy companies cut back U.S. oil production by about 92%, or 1.7 million barrels per day, the most since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina destroyed more than 100 offshore platforms and hobbled output for months.
California's Sweeping Wildfires Have Now Burned Through More Than 4 Million Acres - California’s wildfires have burned through more than 4 million acres this year—already far surpassing the previous annual record set two years ago in which wildfires covered less than 2 million acres. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, known as Cal Fire said in a statement Sunday that more than 8,200 wildfires—of which 23 major incidentsare currently active—have led to 31 deaths and the destruction of more than 8,400 structures in 2020. “The 4 million mark is unfathomable. It boggles the mind, and it takes your breath away,” Scott McLean, a spokesman for Cal Fire, told the Associated Press. Just on Saturday alone, firefighters fought and fully contained 27 new wildfires. Although temperatures are expected to stay warm statewide Sunday, “a cooling trend is expected to begin slowly, decreasing temperatures slightly each day,” Cal Fire said.
Record-breaking California wildfires surpass 4 million acres (AP) — In a year that has already brought apocalyptic skies and smothering smoke to the West Coast, California set a grim new record Sunday when officials announced that the wildfires of 2020 have now scorched a record 4 million acres — in a fire season that is far from over. The unprecedented figure — an area larger than the state of Connecticut — is more than double the previous record for the most land burned in a single year in California. “The 4 million mark is unfathomable. It boggles the mind, and it takes your breath away,” said Scott McLean, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, known as Cal Fire. “And that number will grow.” So far, in this year’s historic fire season, more than 8,200 California wildfires have killed 31 people and scorched “well over 4 million acres in California” or 6,250 square miles, Cal Fire said Sunday in a statement. The blazes have destroyed more than 8,400 buildings. The astonishing figure is more than double the 2018 record of 1.67 million burned acres (2,609 square miles) in California. All large fire years since Cal Fire started recording figures in 1933 have remained well below the 4 million mark — “until now,” the agency said Sunday in a Tweet. The enormity of the fires has meant that people living far from the flames experienced a degree of misery that in itself was unprecedented, with historically unhealthy air quality and smoke so dense that it blurred the skies across California and on some days even blotted out the sun. Last month, a relentless heat wave hit the state that helped fuel the fires and caused so much air pollution that it seeped indoors, prompting stores across California to sell out of air purifiers.Despite Sunday’s grim milestone, there were signs for optimism. Powerful winds that had been expected to drive flames in recent days hadn’t materialized, and warnings of extreme fire danger for hot, dry and gusty weather expired Saturday morning as a layer of fog rolled in. Clearer skies in some areas allowed large air tankers to drop retardant after being sidelined by smoky conditions several days earlier.
California wildfires spawn first ‘gigafire’ in modern history -- California’s extraordinary year of wildfires has spawned another new milestone – the first “gigafire”, a blaze spanning 1m acres, in modern history. On Monday, the August complex fire in northern California expanded beyond 1m acres, elevating it from a mere “megafire” to a new classification, “gigafire”, never used before in a contemporary setting in the state. At 1.03m acres, the fire is larger than the state of Rhode Island and is raging across seven counties, according to fire agency Cal Fire. An amalgamation of several fires caused when lightning struck dry forests in August, the vast conflagration has been burning for 50 days and is only half-contained.The August complex fire heads a list of huge fires that have chewed through4m acres of California this year, a figure called “mind-boggling” by Cal Fire and double the previous annual record. Five of the six largest fires ever recorded in the state have occurred in 2020, resulting in several dozen deaths and thousands of lost buildings.There is little sign of California’s biggest ever fire season receding. The state endured a heatwave this summer, aiding the formation of enormous wildfires even without the seasonal winds that usually fan the blazes that have historically dotted the west coast.Vast, out-of-control fires are increasingly a feature in the US west due to the climate crisis, scientists say, with rising temperatures and prolonged drought causing vegetation and soils to lose moisture. This parched landscape makes larger fires far more likely. Big wildfires are three times more common across the west than in the 1970s, while the wildfire season is three months longer, according to an analysis by Climate Central. The 2020 fire season has caused choking smoke to blanket the west coast and at times blot out the sun. But experts warn this year may soon seem mild by comparison as the world continues to heat up due to the release of greenhouse gases from human activity. “If you don’t like all of the climate disasters happening in 2020, I have some bad news for you about the rest of your life,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University.
Burning Injustice: Why the California Wildfires Are a Class Crisis - Whether it is the flames of the wet Amazon or the fires of the frozen Arctic, wildfires have become the canary in the gold mine. The urgency of a fire is a far cry from the dry scientific language of global warming. They represent everything that is terrifying about climate change. Fire rips through the natural and physical world, leaving behind a blackened and uninhabitable landscape, like watching the next century play out on fast forward. All that is left is a wasteland, showing us, in the words of T.S. Elliot’s poem, “fear in a handful of dust”. Of the 295,000 people that were evacuated in the 2018 California inferno, two names in particular hit the news. Kim Kardashian and Kanye West were forced to abandon their $60 million mansion in the serene gated community just outside of Los Angeles, known as the Hidden Hills. The Hills are home to several Hollywood stars and celebrities, including Kylie Jenner (the world’s youngest billionaire), Miley Cyrus and Britney Spears. When the fire finally started to die down, the couple found themselves having to put out the flames of their own publicity crisis. Reports started to enfold that the couple had hired a private fire team to protect their mansion, a decision they were publicly burned for as critics raged that they should not be able to pay for protection. In an attempt to stem the crisis, Kim Kardashian appeared on ‘The Ellen Show’ to present a $100,000 donation to a firefighter and his wife who had lost their homes in the fire, in a declaration of their devotion to the public Californian firefighting service. Whether Kim and Kanye were wrong for going private is not really the issue here. But it does raise the question – why couldn’t they rely on the public fire service to protect their home? In answering this question, we will see that the climate crisis is a class crisis. As the world warms and becomes ever increasingly hostile to human life, class divides will be sharpened. This is not inevitable. But there are many features of the 2018 Californian wildfires that show the path we are on, an allegory for a century which will be defined by its relationship to the elements.
Devastating wildfires prompt state of emergency in Paraguay - Paraguay has declared a national state of emergency as more than 5 000 wildfires rage amid drought and record hot temperatures across South America. Paraguay’s Congress declared a national emergency on Thursday, October 1 as more wildfires broke out, scorching wide swaths of the Chaco dry forest. The declaration is to boost financial aid for fire-fighting and open the door for seeking international help. Two firefighting aircraft had arrived in the country, set to douse the worst-hit regions. A total of 5 231 individual forest fires have been raging across the country, with most of them concentrated in the Chaco region. The thick smoke had reached as far as the capital Asuncion. Joaquin Roa, the chief of the National Emergency Secretariat, said the Chaco region was a "breeding ground" for wildfires, with air temperatures rising. "All the fires that have been generated are controlled but we have not won the battle, we cannot lower our guard," Roa added. The country is also experiencing a heatwave and had registered a record high of 45.5 °C (113.9 °F) last week.
Spectacular fireball lights up the sky over Mexico, hits land and sparks a fire - A brilliant fireball blazed over northeastern Mexico around 03:14 UTC on October 7, 2020 (22:14 LT on October 6), leaving witnesses and sky observers startled as the space object put on a spectacular display. The meteorite hit a small town in Tamaulipas, sparking a bush fire, according to local reports. Residents and night sky enthusiasts were in for a delightful sight as an especially bright meteor exploded over northern Mexico. The fireball was most visible over Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, and Tamaulipas. Some witnesses, security cameras, webcams, and doorbell cameras were able to capture the event as it lit up the sky for more than 20 seconds. Local reports said the meteorite landed near Ciudad Victoria, the capital of Tamaulipas state. News outlet Milenio reported that the object set fire to bushes in the area where it fell. No injuries and damages were reported. The Civil Protection agency retrieved several unusual rocks from the incident site for further study.
2020 Antarctic ozone hole one of the largest and deepest in recent years - The 2020 ozone hole over the Antarctic is one of the largest and deepest in recent years, according to scientists with the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The hole had grown to 23 million square km (8.8 million square miles)-- over twice the size of the U.S. This is above average for the last decade and is spreading over much of the Antarctic continent."There is much variability in how far ozone hole events develop each year," said Vincent-Henri Peuch, Director of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service at ECMWF."The 2020 ozone hole resembles the one from 2018, which also was a quite large hole, and is definitely in the upper part of the pack of the last fifteen years or so.""With the sunlight returning to the South Pole in the last weeks, we saw continued ozone depletion over the area. After the unusually small and short-lived ozone hole in 2019, which was driven by special meteorological conditions, we are registering a rather large one again this year, which confirms that we need to continue enforcing the Montreal Protocol banning emissions of ozone-depleting chemicals."NASA’s Ozone Watch reports the lowest value of 95 Dobson Units recorded on October 1, and scientists are seeing indications that this year's ozone hole has appeared to have reached its maximum extent.The large and deep ozone hole has been driven by a strong and stable cold polar vortex, which kept the temperature over Antarctica consistently cold.The hole grew fast from mid-August and peaked at around 24 million square km (9.2 million square miles) in early October. It now covers 23 million square km (8.8 million square miles)-- above average for the past decade and is spreading over much of the Antarctic.
Ozone Hole Over Antarctica Is One of the Biggest in 15 Years - The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica is one of the largest and deepest in the past 15 years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Tuesday.The ozone hole over Antarctica usually starts to grow in August and reaches its peak in October, The Associated Press explained. This year, it peaked at 24 million square kilometers (approximately 9.3 million square miles) and is now at 23 million square kilometers (approximately 8.9 million square miles), the WMO said. This means the hole is larger than the average for the past decade and extends over most of Antarctica."With the sunlight returning to the South Pole in the last weeks, we saw continued ozone depletion over the area. After the unusually small and short-lived ozone hole in 2019, which was driven by special meteorological conditions, we are registering a rather large one again this year, which confirms that we need to continue enforcing the Montreal Protocol banning emissions of ozone depleting chemicals," Vincent-Henri Peuch, director of the EU's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at ECMWF, said in the WMO press release. The ozone layer is important because it protects the earth from dangerous ultraviolet radiation, CAMS explained. In the late 20th century, that layer was damaged by the human release of ozone-depleting halocarbons, which the Montreal Protocol of 1987 sought to control. But the size of the ozone hole every year is also impacted by specific weather conditions. This year, a strong polar vortex has chilled the air above Antarctica, and consistently cold air creates the ideal conditions for ozone depletion."The air has been below minus 78 degrees Celsius, and this is the temperature which you need to form stratospheric clouds — and this quite (a) complex process," WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis said at a UN briefing reported by The Associated Press. "The ice in these clouds triggers a reaction which then can destroy the ozone zone. So, it's because of that that we are seeing the big ozone hole this year." Specifically, the ice can turn nonreactive chemicals into reactive ones, the WMO explained. Light from the sun then triggers chemical reactions that deplete the ozone layer.
New Study Reveals Global Warming Is Affecting Night-Time Temperatures Differently -- From the poles to the tropics, the oceans to our cities, we've mapped the fluctuations in temperature that are leading to a climate crisis. But strangely, little attention has been paid to the world's circadian landscapes of night and day. And a new study shows our nocturnal environment is actually warming at a faster rate than our daytime surrounds - and it could prove too much for many species. After analysing more than three decades of daily temperature data from all over the world, researchers from the University of Exeter have concluded there's an asymmetry in our planet's warming as it rotates on its axis. The climate records spanned from 1983 to 2017, providing the team with a hefty database of six-hourly surface temperature readings covering virtually the entire planet during some of the warmest years in recorded history. In some spots, the days warmed considerably while night time temperatures barely budged. There were even times of considerable cooling for some environments. But the bigger picture was surprising. Across more than half of the planet's land surface, the average annual temperature rise at night was a quarter of a degree Celsius more than that of the day's. A fraction of a degree each year might sound tiny, but over time these increments of heat could add up to have a significant effect on the ecology. "Species that are only active at night or during the day will be particularly affected," says ecologist and lead author, Daniel Cox from the University of Exeter.
New Study Shows a Vicious Circle of Climate Change Building on Thickening Layers of Warm Ocean Water -Near the surface of the ocean, global warming is creating increasingly distinct layers of warm water that stifle seawater circulations critical for regulating climate and sustaining marine life. The sheets of warm water block flows of heat, carbon, oxygen and nutrients within the water column, and between the oceans and atmosphere. A new study shows more heat is building up in the upper 600 feet of the ocean than deeper down. That increasingly distinct warm layer on the surface can intensify tropical storms, disrupt fisheries, interfere with the ocean absorption of carbon and deplete oxygen, Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State, said. The intensified layering, called ocean stratification, is happening faster than scientists expected, an international team of researchers reported in the study, published Sept. 28 in the journal Nature Climate Change. And that means the negative impacts will arrive faster and also be greater than expected, said Mann, a co-author of the study. The research suggests that some of the worst-case global warming scenarios outlined in major international climate reports can't be ruled out, he said. If the ocean surface warms faster and less carbon is carried to the depths, those processes along with other climate feedbacks could lead atmospheric CO2 to triple and the global average temperature could increase 8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, he added. Increased stratification of the ocean could drive a vicious cycle of warming, Mann added. If more and more heat stays near the surface of the ocean, the warm water will heat the atmosphere above. And if the layers of warm water slow the ocean's uptake of carbon dioxide, more heat-trapping CO2 will stay in the atmosphere. The researchers found that, overall, stratification in the upper 600 feet of the ocean increased by 6 percent in the last 50 years. Previous calculations measuring the change over time were not as accurate because they didn't include as much data, said co-author Lijing Cheng, with the Chinese Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
EU: Earth Has Experienced Its Warmest September on Record - The Earth has experienced its warmest September since record-keeping began, according to a European Union agency's report published Wednesday.The Copernicus Climate Change Service, which tracks global temperatures, published statistics that show 2020 is, so far, tying with 2016 for the warmest calendar year. Global temperatures in January, May and September exceeded those in 2016 and tied in April and June."There is currently little difference between 2020 and 2016 for the year-to-date," Copernicus researcher Freja Vambourg said.The report showed that temperatures in Europe were particularly warm, with the cooling La Nina weather event in the eastern Pacific cooling parts of the southern hemisphere. Arctic sea ice saw its second-lowest September average extent on record, more than 40% below the 1981-2020 average. Temperatures in Siberia were "especially high."Monitors of the Paris Climate Agreement will view the figures with particular alarm: for the 12-month period through to September 2020, the planet was nearly 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial levels. This is close to the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold for severe impacts to the planet detailed in a 2018 UN climate report. The Paris Agreement, of which many UN nations are signatories, has nations aim to cap global warming "well below" 2 degrees Celsius and at 1.5 degrees if possible.
World and Europe suffer hottest September ever recorded -- The world this year experienced its hottest September on record, scientists have reported. Surface air temperatures last month were 0.05C warmer than in September 2019, making it the hottest September on record globally, experts from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said. It was also the hottest September Europe has seen, beating the previous record for the continent, set in 2018, by around 0.2C. Temperatures were also well above average in other parts of the world including in the Middle East, parts of South America and Australia, the scientists said. And temperatures in the Siberian Arctic continued to be warmer than average, continuing the hot spell that has affected parts of the region since early spring. Monitoring by C3S also confirms that the average Arctic sea ice extent was the second lowest recorded for September, the month when sea ice is at its lowest after the summer melt before it refreezes in winter, after 2012.
Global food production poses an increasing climate threat - According to the authors of a new study published in Nature, rising nitrous oxide emissions are putting reaching climate goals and the objectives of the Paris Agreement in jeopardy. The growing use of nitrogen fertilizers in the production of food worldwide is increasing concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere--a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide and which remains in the atmosphere longer than a human lifetime. The study, which was undertaken by an international consortium of 57 scientists from 14 countries and 48 research institutions, with IIASA in a key role, was led by Auburn University, Alabama, USA under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative. The researchers' objective was to produce the most comprehensive assessment to date of all sources and sinks of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. The findings point to an alarming trend affecting climate change: Nitrous oxide has risen 20% from pre-industrial levels and its growth has accelerated over recent decades due to emissions from various human activities. "The dominant driver of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide comes from agriculture, and the growing demand for food and feed for animals will further increase global nitrous oxide emissions," "There is a conflict between the way we are feeding people and stabilizing the climate."
U.S. Emissions Dropped in 2019: Here's Why in 6 Charts - Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States dropped last year after a sharp increase in 2018, new data released Tuesday show. The drop resumed a long-term downward trend driven chiefly by a shift away from coal power generation. The story of the emissions decline has largely been one of market forces—rather than policies—that have made utilities close coal plants in favor of cheaper natural gas and renewable energy. But this shift to lower-carbon energy has been restricted to the electricity sector, and the nation's emissions cuts are still not on track to meet the targets it agreed to under the Paris climate accord.In order to meet those goals, experts say, federal policies will likely need to target other sectors that collectively make up a majority of U.S. emissions. Overall, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell about 2 percent in 2019, according to preliminary estimates by Rhodium Group, an economic analysis firm. The previous year, strong economic growth and other factors had pushed emissions up roughly 3 percent.The 2019 drop was driven by a nearly 10 percent fall in emissions from the power sector, the biggest decline in decades, according to Rhodium. And the story there is all about coal Coal generation in the U.S. fell by 18 percent last year, the largest annual decline on record, according to Rhodium. Another study, published in December, found a smaller but still dramatic drop for coal generation last year. Renewable power sources such as wind and solar have seen sharp increases in recent years as their costs of generation have fallen below that of coal. But natural gas has replaced far more coal generation capacity than renewables. The fracking boom sent natural gas prices plummeting, helping drive a rapid shift by electric utilities away from coal. But while burning gas is cleaner than burning coal, natural gas power generation still emits carbon dioxide. Yet emissions from other sectors of the economy continued to rise. Emissions from industry rose slightly last year and are now greater than those from coal-fired power plants. Emissions from buildings were up, too. And emissions from other sectors of the economy collectively grew by more.
Anxiety Mounts Abroad About Climate Leadership and the Volatile U.S. Election - Whenever artist Michael Aschauer returns home after an extended stay in the United States, people here pepper him with questions about the direction America is heading. With gallows humor typical of the city, they often ask, "Will it fall apart slowly, or very fast?" he said, adding that Vienna has plenty of experience with how rising and falling empires can destabilize global systems. He said it's hard to imagine that Americans would re-elect the incumbent president, but that it can't be ruled out, either, given the current volatility of U.S. politics. "The outcome will have profound consequences for the future of Earth's climate," he added. Carbon budgets detailed in recent climate reports show that four more years of pro-fossil fuel policies in the U.S. would make it much harder for the world to reach the Paris climate agreement goal of preventing catastrophic global warming, he said. On the other hand, Biden's decarbonization plan would accelerate demand for renewable energy in the world's biggest consumer economy and speed the global shift to a zero-carbon economy. He also said he's noticed a brain drain away from the U.S. in fields like the arts and technology, and expects that to continue if Trump is reelected. Vienna, Berlin and other European cities are already full of American political refugees, he added. In terms of climate policy, four more years of Trump would be damaging indeed, said Austrian-born Gernot Wagner, a climate economics professor at New York University. "We don't have another presidential term to waste," he said. "A Trump win would be devastating, especially since it's not about emissions in any given year, but about the trajectory." And what happens in the U.S. affects China, Europe, India, Nigeria and elsewhere, he added. "A lot around climate policy is about momentum: 'If you do something, then I will, too.' A race to the top, rather than the bottom," he said. "That's what Paris was all about and still is. It's also where a Biden victory can have the biggest impact."
Having Rolled Back Obama’s Centerpiece Climate Plan, Trump Defends a Vastly More Limited Approach In the biggest case to reach a federal appeals court so far over President Donald Trump's dismantling of his predecessor's climate policy, administration attorneys argued on Thursday that the Clean Air Act gives the Environmental Protection Agency only limited authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from electric utilities. President Barack Obama asserted more expansive powers in his Clean Power Plan, the centerpiece of his strategy to combat climate change, which would have cut greenhouse gas emissions by a third. The plan gave states the authority to set emissions goals across the power sector and encouraged them to shift away from coal to cleaner sources of power such as natural gas, wind and solar. It was challenged by industry and 27 states and blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court before Obama even left office. Trump replaced Obama's plan last year with something he called the Affordable Clean Energy rule, which was based on a far narrower interpretation of the Clean Air Act and empowered the EPA to seek minor emissions reductions at individual coal-fired power plants. Instead of reducing emissions by a third, greenhouse gases would fall by less than 1 percent. The argument Thursday in the U.S. Circuit Court for the District of Columbia came in a lawsuit filed by the American Lung Association and other environmental groups, 20 Democratic states and the District of Columbia to block Trump's limited approach on grounds that it fails to adequately safeguard public health as the Clean Air Act requires. Jonathan Brightbill, principal deputy assistant attorney general, defended Trump's Affordable Clean Energy rule, saying Congress only gave the EPA authority to establish standards for power plant operators to achieve greater heat efficiency at individual power plants, thereby reducing emissions.
Climate falsehoods reached millions on Facebook -- Thursday, October 8, 2020 -- Climate denial groups have used Facebook to spread disinformation to millions of people in the lead-up to the 2020 elections, according to a new report. And they did it on the cheap. The report by InfluenceMap, a London-based nonprofit that tracks climate lobbying, highlighted 51 climate disinformation ads that ran this year on Facebook. They found the ads were targeted to older men in rural areas and that they were viewed an estimated 8 million times. All for the cost of $42,000. InfluenceMap tracked nine groups that spread climate disinformation: PragerU, the Texas Public Policy Foundation, the CO2 Coalition, Turning Point USA, the Capital Research Center, the Clear Energy Alliance, the Washington Policy Center, the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. One of those groups, the CO2 Coalition, has told E&E News that it is using Facebook to reach an audience outside conservative media. The findings prompted an outcry from Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat and longtime climate activist. He told E&E News that Facebook is "somewhere between complicit and helpless" in stopping the spread of climate disinformation. "This is the company in the last election that didn't have any bells ring when political ads were being paid for in Russian rubles, so their capacity to make appalling, dumb decisions is pretty robust, and in this case they failed to screen out fraudulent propaganda," Whitehouse said. The InfluenceMap analysis also provided a window into the audience that climate denial groups are trying to win over, in this case older white men. Broadly, the Facebook ads were targeted more to men across all age groups. They had the highest number of views per person in Texas and Wyoming.
Supreme Court takes up energy companies' appeal over Baltimore climate suit (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear an appeal by energy companies including BP PLC, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell PLC contesting a lawsuit by the city of Baltimore seeking damages for the impact of global climate change. The justices will weigh whether the lawsuit must be heard in state court as the city would prefer or in federal court, which corporate defendants generally view as a more favorable venue. The suit targets 21 U.S. and foreign energy companies that extract, produce, distribute or sell fossil fuels. The outcome could affect around a dozen similar lawsuits by U.S. states, cities and counties including Rhode Island and New York City seeking to hold such companies liable for the impact of climate change. Baltimore and the other jurisdictions are seeking damages under state law for the harms they said they have sustained due to climate change, which they attribute in part to the companies’ role in producing fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The plaintiffs have said they have had to spend more on infrastructure such as flood control measures to combat sea-level rise caused by a warming climate. Climate change has been melting land-based ice sheets and glaciers.
Exxon Carbon Emissions and Climate: Leaked Plans Reveal Rising CO2 Output - Exxon Mobil Corp. had plans to increase annual carbon-dioxide emissions by as much as the output of the entire nation of Greece, an analysis of internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg shows, setting one of the largest corporate emitters against international efforts to slow the pace of warming. The drive to expand both fossil-fuel production and planet-warming pollution has come at a time when some of Exxon’s rivals, such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, are moving to curb oil and zero-out emissions. Exxon’s own assessment of its $210 billion investment strategy shows yearly emissions rising 17% by 2025, according to internal projections. The emissions estimates predate the Covid-19 pandemic, which has slashed global demand for oil and thrown the company’s finances into distress, making it unclear if Exxon will complete its plans for growth. The internal figures reflect only some of the measures Exxon would take to reduce emissions, the company said. The largest U.S. oil producer has never made a commitment to lower oil and gas output or set a date by which it will become carbon neutral. Exxon has also never publicly disclosed its forecasts for its own emissions. But the internal documents show for the first time that Exxon has carefully assessed the direct emissions it expects from the seven-year investment plan adopted in 2018 by Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods. A chart in the documents lists Exxon’s direct emissions for 2017—122 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent—as well as a projected figure for 2025 of 143 million tons. The additional 21 million tons is a net result of Exxon’s estimate for ramping up production, selling assets and undertaking efforts to reduce pollution by deploying renewable energy and burying carbon dioxide. In a statement released after the publication of this story, Exxon said its internal projections are “a preliminary, internal assessment of estimated cumulative emission growth through 2025 and did not include the [additional] mitigation and abatement measures that would have been evaluated in the planning process. Furthermore, the projections identified in the leaked documents have significantly changed, a fact that was not fully explained or prominently featured in the article.” Exxon declined to provide any details on the new projections.
No. 1 fossil fuel funder JPMorgan says it will align with Paris Accord – JPMorgan Chase will establish intermediate emission targets for 2030 for its financing portfolio and begin communicating about its efforts in 2021. It will focus on the oil and gas, electric power, and automotive manufacturing sectors and set targets on a sector-by-sector basis.It will aim to support companies to advance the Paris Agreement goals, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and expanding investment in low- and zero-carbon energy sources and technologies. JPMorgan Chase will advocate for carbon pricing and the commercialization of new technologies that can help advance decarbonization.It’s also launching the Center for Carbon Transition to provide clients in the Corporate & Investment Bank and Commercial Banking with centralized access to sustainability-focused financing, research, and advisory solutions. The center will also engage clients in their long-term business strategies and related carbon disclosures.JPMorgan Chase will share more details in its next climate report in spring 2021.JPMorgan Chase is the No. 1 fossil fuel bank in the world by a 36% margin, with $268 billion in lending and underwriting to fossil fuel companies in the four years after the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted (2016-2019), according to the Rainforest Action Network (RAN). Its No. 1 fossil fuel client is TC Energy, which is still trying to push through the controversial Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.Further, as Electrek reported on September 24, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo together provide almost 40% of financing for fracking companies, despite warnings that the sector is financially unsustainable. And yesterday, Electrek reported that Exxon plans to actually increase its emissions, according to internal documents. Exxon is JPMorgan Chase’s No. 3 fossil fuel client.
California blackouts caused by climate change, poor planning - Los Angeles Times - California suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years because energy planners didn’t take climate change into account and didn’t line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after sundown, according to a damning self-evaluation released Tuesday by three state agencies.The rotating power outages didn’t last long and affected only a small fraction of the state’s 40 million people. Just under half a million homes and businesses lost power for as little as 15 minutes and as long as two and a half hours on Aug. 14, with another 321,000 utility customers going dark for anywhere from eight to 90 minutes the following evening.But officials should have been prepared for the climate-driven extreme heat that caused electricity demand to soar and briefly left the nation’s largest state without sufficient power supplies, the state’s Energy Commission, Independent System Operator and Public Utilities Commission acknowledged in a preliminary “root cause analysis” demanded by Gov. Gavin Newsom. The immediate cause of the power shortages was the heat storm, which saw California experience four of its five hottest August days in the last 35 years, the analysis found. Temperature records were shattered across the American West, limiting the Golden State’s ability to make up for its energy deficit by importing electrons from other states.State agencies failed to adequately plan for that type of heat event despite knowing how quickly the world is heating up, the report concluded. They also failed to direct electricity providers to buy sufficient power supplies to cover the evening hours when solar panels go offline. And they created complex energy market mechanisms that masked the inadequacies.“The combination of these factors was an extraordinary event. But it is our responsibility and intent to plan for such events, which are becoming increasingly common in a world rapidly being impacted by climate change,” wrote Independent System Operator President Elliot Mainzer, Public Utilities Commission President Marybel Batjer and Energy Commission Chair David Hochschild.Careful planning to ensure adequate power supplies will become even more important as California phases out fossil fuels and moves toward 60% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% climate-friendly energy by 2045, as required by state law.
California's blackouts expose Biden-Harris and the Green New Deal - The nation has been watching California experiencing its first intentional rolling blackouts since the state’s 2001 energy crisis. Gov. Gavin Newsom, pointing out that solar panels don’t work at night and acknowledging the unusually calm winds which don’t move turbines, called the situation “unacceptable.” That situation, the one created by government leaders supplanting reliable, inexpensive, domestic, abundant fossil fuels for the en vogue yet inadequate green energy, isn’t getting better, either, as the energy demand is only increasing and likely to exceed the record reached in 2006. The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board referred to this as “California’s green new normal.” If Democratic vice presidential nominee and California Senator Kamala Harris is given the reins to America’s energy policy, rolling blackouts, a consistent lack of energy, and much worse will become a nationwide norm. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has been inconsistent regarding his energy policy platform throughout the campaign trail. During one of the Democratic presidential debates earlier this year, Biden was very explicit in saying that he “would make sure it’s [fracking] eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those [fracking and coal], either…” Since then, his campaign team has stated that he does not support a nationwide fracking ban but still wants to stop all oil and gas drilling on federal lands. Senator Harris has been remarkably consistent in her stance on fracking. Harris has repeatedly bragged about her intention to ban fracking and enforce a series of restrictions on the natural gas and oil industry. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s, D-NY, Green New Deal is a codification of the eco-left’s radical agenda – Harris is a proud co-sponsor. At a minimum, the Green New Deal would impose a large and recurring cost on American families. According to a Power The Future study, it would cost a typical household at least $74,000 in the first year of implementation and more than $40,000 every year thereafter. Another report by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute estimates that a ban on fracking in 2021 would lead to the loss of 5.9 million jobs in seven states within the next five years. About 600,000 of these job losses would take place in Pennsylvania, a key swing state.
Prince William launches £50 million Earthshot Prize, with a nod to John F. Kennedy - A £50 million ($64.54 million) prize focused on the environment was launched by Prince William on Thursday, with the Duke of Cambridge describing the next 10 years as "a critical decade for change." Dubbed "the most prestigious global environment prize in history," the Earthshot Prize — the name is a reference to the "moon shot" space program associated with President John F. Kennedy — will select five winners a year between 2021 and 2030. The prize itself will look to identify "evidence-based solutions to the biggest environmental problems the planet faces." It will focus on five "Earthshots," or aims: Protect and restore nature; clean our air; revive our oceans; build a waste-free world; and fix our climate. One winner per category will be chosen every year, with each receiving £1 million. That money will be used to "support environmental and conservation projects that are agreed with the winners." Who's eligible for the prize? Nominations for the inaugural awards, which will take place in London next fall, open in November, with more than 100 "nominating partners" from around the world asked to put forward candidates. According to the Earthshot website, those eligible for the award include "scientists, activists, economists, community projects, leaders, governments, banks, businesses, cities, and countries." In a statement issued Thursday, Prince William said: "Time is of the essence, which is why we believe that this very ambitious global prize is the only way forward." Although formally launched today, plans for the prize were announced at the end of 2019 and Prince William, together with the Royal Foundation of The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, has been working on the scheme for two years. The awards will be made by Prince William and an Earthshot Prize Council, with experts assisting the judges. The prize is also backed by an alliance of organizations including the WWF, Greenpeace, the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation, the Jack Ma Foundation and the Aga Khan Development Network.
China Has Surprised the World With Climate Action Announcement -China's President Xi Jinping surprised the global community recently by committing his country to net-zero emissions by 2060. Prior to this announcement, the prospect of becoming "carbon neutral" barely rated a mention in China's national policies.China currently accounts for about 28% of global carbon emissions – double the U.S. contribution and three times the European Union's. Meeting the pledge will demand a deep transition of not just China's energy system, but its entire economy.Importantly, China's use of coal, oil and gas must be slashed, and its industrial production stripped of emissions. This will affect demand for Australia's exports in coming decades.It remains to be seen whether China's climate promise is genuine, or simply a ploy to win international favor. But it puts pressure on many other nations – not least Australia – to follow. Coal is currently used to generate about 60% of China's electricity. Coal must be phased out for China to meet its climate target, unless technologies such as carbon-capture and storage become commercially viable.Natural gas is increasingly used in China for heating and transport, as an alternative to coal and petrol. To achieve carbon neutrality, China must dramatically reduce its gas use.Electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles must also come to dominate road transport - currently they account for less than 2% of the total fleet.China must also slash the production of carbon-intensive steel, cement and chemicals, unless they can be powered by renewable electricity or zero-emissions hydrogen. One report suggests meeting the target will mean most of China's steel is produced using recycled steel, in a process powered by renewable electricity. Modeling in that report suggests China's use of iron ore – and the coking coal required to process it into steel – will decrease by 75%. The implications for Australia's mining industry would be huge; around 80% of our iron ore is exported to China.
Top Law Firms Called Out for Serving Fossil Fuel Industry Clients in New Climate ‘Scorecard’ - With lawsuits against major fossil fuel producers over climate damages on the rise, a new reportand initiative examines how prestigious law firms are enabling climate breakdown. The student-led initiative, Law Students for Climate Accountability, calls for holding the legal industry accountable for profiting from work defending and lobbying for fossil fuel clients as the world faces what scientists say is a climate emergency. This campaign is emerging as industries ranging from finance to insurance are facing greater scrutiny in a rapidly warming world. “Law firms write the contracts for fossil fuel projects, lobby to weaken environmental regulations, and help fossil fuel companies evade accountability in court. Our research is the first to expose the broad extent of firms’ role in driving the climate crisis,” Alisa White, a student at Yale Law School and a lead author on the report, said in a press release. The 2020 Law Firm Climate Change Scorecard, as the report is titled, looks at the top 100 most prestigious law firms in the U.S. (known as the Vault 100) and grades them according to their work in service of the fossil fuel industry. According to the analysis, the top 100 firms “worked on ten times as many cases exacerbating climate change as cases addressing climate change; were the legal advisors on five times more transactional work for the fossil fuel industry than the renewable energy industry;” and “lobbied five times more for fossil fuel companies than renewable energy companies.” Overall, per this scorecard, only four firms received an “A” grade while 41 firms scored a “D,” and 26 received an “F.” The report summary calls out several of the firms graded “F.” The firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, for example, which represents ExxonMobil in climate liability lawsuits, “worked on as many cases exacerbating climate change as 62 other Vault 100 firms combined,” the report states. Last winter Paul, Weiss faced protests from law students at Harvard, Yale, New York University, and the University of Michigan during recruitment events, with the students calling on the firm to drop Exxon as a client. These protests and the new Law Students for Climate Accountability initiative indicate that legal firms that refuse to drop major fossil fuel clients may start to face recruitment challenges. Young people are increasingly engaging in climate activism and leading the demands for change across all segments of society, including now in the legal field.
Fossil fuel group with Trump ties slams governor, environmentalists - A nonprofit fossil fuel advocacy group with ties to President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has been targeting environmental organizations, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and Democratic governors, including New Mexico’s Michelle Lujan Grisham, with criticism of energy policies it calls “radical” and “disastrous.” In July, Power the Future attacked Lujan Grisham for participating in a “clean energy conversation” hosted by the Biden campaign. Larry Behrens, the group’s Western states director, also has published opinion pieces in The New Mexican and other media outlets criticizing the Energy Transition Act, legislation Lujan Grisham signed into law in 2019 to create a timeline for shifting the state to renewable energy. Behrens, who worked as a communications staffer for former Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, has portrayed Lujan Grisham’s administration as left wing and intent on destroying good-paying jobs in New Mexico’s oil, gas and coal industries. Behrens declined a request for an interview on his work but defended it in an email. “I work hard to research issues that are important in the energy conversation both nationally and here in New Mexico,” he said. Power the Future, classified as a 501(c)(4) “social welfare organization” with the IRS, has been conducting opposition research as well as using blog posts, print media, appearances on Fox News and digital advertising to praise Trump’s energy policies and slam what it calls “the eco-left” narrative and Biden’s energy policies. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Power the Future has spent $157,776 on Facebook ads since it formed in late 2017. In recent months, the group has largely focused on print and TV news organizations and opposition research. Because of its IRS status, it does not have to disclose its donors — raising concerns among so-called good government groups that advocate for transparency in politics.
Marsh Sanctuary alleges special treatment for proposed Mount Kisco solar farm - Marsh Sanctuary, a 156-acre nature conservatory in Mount Kisco, is asking a court to strike a zoning law that it contends was pushed by village officials with a financial interest in building a solar farm on pristine land next to its property.“A municipality may not use its police power to spot zone a particular parcel of land for special treatment,” according to the complaint filed last month in Westchester Supreme Court, “and which serves to benefit only the owner and lessee of the spot zoned parcel.”The lawsuit also names Sunrise Community Solar LLC, owned by Doug Hertz, chairman of the village planning board, and Skull Island Partners, a Florida company that owns the 25-acre property at 180 S. Bedford Road.“It is unfortunate that the few who disagree with thoughtfully and lawfully enacted legislation elect to bring false claims in a lawsuit,” Edward Brancati, the village manager, stated in an email. “The village will have to use taxpayer dollars to defend the solar legislation and to correct all the misrepresentations outlined in this ill-conceived lawsuit.” In 2018, the village amended zoning laws to allow solar panel arrays to be installed in certain places, subject to a special use permit. The original draft did not permit large, ground-mounted arrays greater than 10,000 square feet in conservation districts, according to the complaint. Then the planning board received a last-minute request by “some unknown person” to allow large solar arrays in the conservation district around Marsh Sanctuary.
Nearly 500k clean energy workers remain unemployed since pandemic start - Nearly half a million clean energy workers remain unemployed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new analysis. The analysis of unemployment filings by BW Research Partnership shows that 477,900 clean energy workers, or 14 percent of the sector’s pre-pandemic workforce, do not have jobs. Prior to the coronavirus, the sector had been expected to add 175,000 jobs this year. Things got slightly better for the sector in September, when 12,500 jobs were added. The 477,900 unemployment figure is down from the 594,300 jobs that had been lost in March and April. However, clean energy job growth last month was 60 percent slower than job growth nationwide, the analysis said. A large share of the job losses have been in energy efficiency, where 336,700 workers lost their jobs. A total of 75,700 renewable electric power generation workers, 10,000 clean fuels workers, 21,400 clean transmission, distribution and storage workers and 34,200 clean vehicles workers have lost their jobs since the pandemic began. In light of the job losses, clean energy advocates have pushed for targeted stimulus. However, past stimulus bills have lacked significant assistance for the sector, and current negotiations have stalled. “The hard-hitting impacts of COVID-19 continue to roil the renewable energy workforce,” said a statement from Gregory Wetstone, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. “To keep that unemployment number from rising further, our ask to Congress is simple and urgent: We need temporary refundability for renewable tax credits so that projects can continue to be built in spite of a COVID-constrained tax equity market, and a delay in the scheduled phasedown of existing credits in recognition of the adverse nationwide impact the pandemic has had on the renewable sector this year,” Wetstone said.
DOE study: Solar-hydro projects could power 40% of world -- Linking floating solar panels with hydropower could produce the equivalent of 40% of the world's electricity, according to a new study by researchers at the Department of Energy. Published this week by a team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the study provides the first global look by federal researchers at the technical potential of the hybrid concept. The research found that by constructing solar panels on the surface of hydro reservoirs and feeding the power they generate into the same substation, both energy resources might become cheaper, more efficient and more reliable. By turning to solar production during dry seasons, hydropower operators could conserve more of their impounded water, the NREL team said. Transmission lines could also tap into a second, intermittent source of electricity, bringing them closer to their total capacity. Under the concept, solar energy could be used for energy storage purposes by pumping water into upper reservoirs for later use. Solar operators, meanwhile, could count on a firmer resource as backup during cloudy periods, allowing them to claim a higher capacity credit — and curtail less production. Virtual agreements that link solar panels at a separate site to hydro production could also be used with similar results, the study said. If floating solar panels were arrayed on more than 379,000 hydro reservoirs globally, the resultant hybrid could generate anywhere from 16% to 40% of the world's 2018 electricity production, according to the study, which was published in the journal Renewable Energy. In places like the Southwest, floating panel arrays might also cut down on evaporation at reservoirs, said Nathan Lee, lead author of the study and a researcher on NREL's Integrated Decision Support team, which often advises the State Department on international renewable energy questions.
UK PM Boris Johnson says offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030 - U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday that he wanted the country to become the "world leader in low cost clean power generation." Speaking at the Conservative Party annual conference, which was delivered virtually, Johnson stressed the importance of renewable energy sources, especially offshore wind. "We believe that in ten years' time, offshore wind will be powering every home in the country, with our target rising from 30 gigawatts to 40 gigawatts," he said. "You heard me right: your kettle, your washing machine, your cooker, your heating, your plug-in electric vehicle, the whole lot of them, will get their juice cleanly and without guilt from the breezes that blow around these islands," he added. The pledge to increase offshore wind capacity was included in the Conservative Party's manifesto for the 2019 general election. Johnson said he remembered how some people used to sneer at wind power 20 years ago, in an apparent reference to himself, given he had once claimed wind farms couldn't "pull the skin off a rice pudding." His comments criticizing the effectiveness of wind power were made in 2013, however. The prime minister said £160 million ($207.46 million) would be invested in ports and factories to manufacture what he described as the "next generation of turbines" — a move he later claimed would generate 60,000 jobs — and also acknowledged the role floating offshore wind could play. "As Saudi Arabia is to oil, the U.K. is to wind — a place of almost limitless resource but, in the case of wind, without the carbon emissions, without the damage to the environment," he said. According to figures from industry body RenewableUK, the U.K.'s operational offshore wind capacity stands at a little over 10.4 gigawatts. The U.K. is already home to a number of large offshore wind farms. These include Hornsea One, in waters off Yorkshire, England, which has a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts. In response to Johnson's remarks, Hugh McNeal, RenewableUK's chief executive, said the government had "raised the ambition for offshore wind and renewables, and our industry is ready to meet the challenge." "A green recovery with renewables at its heart will be good for consumers and jobs, as well as helping to meet our 2050 net zero emissions target," he added. The pledge to ramp up offshore wind capacity was met with measured optimism from environmental organizations. Mike Childs, who is head of policy at Friends of the Earth, said Johnson's "U-turn" on wind showed "the renewables argument has clearly been won." "Investment in off-shore wind is certainly critical for powering a cleaner, fairer future, but Boris Johnson mustn't ignore the huge contribution onshore wind could make too," he added, before going on to call for planning restrictions on onshore wind to be "urgently" reversed. "We also need a comprehensive nationwide energy efficiency programme to create jobs, cut fuel bills, prevent people shivering in heat-leaking homes and help face down the climate emergency," he said. In a tweet reacting to the news Jonathan Bartley, who is co-leader of the Green Party, said it was "good to see the Prime Minister's conversion" but noted that more detail was needed on how things would be funded. "It still falls far short of what is urgently needed and what could be achieved," he added.
Once shut out, Maine cannabis industry now eligible for sustainable energy grants - One of Maine’s most energy-intensive industries will no longer be shut out of the state’s energy efficiency incentive programs.The trustees of Efficiency Maine, a ratepayer-funded agency that promotes sustainable energy usage, voted 5-2 on Wednesday to reverse a ban on giving energy-efficiency grantsto state-legal marijuana businesses, concluding they are just as likely to last long enough to produce the energy savings needed to justify the grant as any other kind of business.In 2017, Efficiency Maine trustees worried the Trump administration might crack down on cannabis businesses, even if they are state licensed, because they operate outside of federal law. That would make it impossible for any grant recipient to save enough money to meet the program’s cost-effectiveness requirement. “It takes time to make your money back on these grants,” said Executive Director Michael Stoddard. “Three years ago, we were trying to look into our crystal ball to determine how reasonable it was to determine a cannabis business would have the kind of time it takes to do that. Every project is different, but with most, it takes a number of years.”
Ag officials release gas station upgrade grants for biofuels -- Federal agriculture officials said Thursday they awarded $22 million in grants to gas stations, convenience stores and fuel distribution sites in 14 states to upgrade pumps, fuel lines and storage tanks as part of a program designed to increase the use of higher blends of ethanol fuel and biodiesel. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced the grants in several stops on Thursday including two locations in Iowa as part of a $100 million program announced in May to boost biofuels distribution. The agency said in a statement that the initial funding is expected to increase ethanol demand by nearly 150 million gallons annually. Grants were announced for projects in California, Florida, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Utah and Wisconsin. USDA said it plans on announcing additional grants in the coming weeks. Critics called the timing of the distribution of the money an election year ploy to attract rural voters hesitant to support Donald Trump for re-election after trade disputes and biofuels policies hurt ag sales. “Today we are getting an opportunity to witness one more election stunt from the Trump administration,” said Patty Judge, a Democrat, who once served as lieutenant governor and state agriculture secretary. Ethanol groups welcomed the help. “It represents a major milestone in our efforts to ensure more Americans can access cleaner and more affordable ethanol-blended fuel,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuels trade group.
Automakers' risky bet: EVs are better than gas cars -- Tuesday, October 6, 2020 -- As Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG recently have unveiled marquee electric cars, they have let slip a remarkable admission for companies built on oil: Electric models will in some ways be superior. Volkswagen has described its upcoming ID.4 SUV as a combination of its best cars. GM suggests future electric vehicles will be "more responsive than its internal combustion equivalents." Ford says its electric F-150 will transform tailgating parties, while being cheaper to own, and faster and more powerful than any truck it's ever made. These claims may not surprise EV owners: The vehicles are quiet, require little maintenance, are cheaper in most places to fuel and can rocket off the line from a standstill. But until now, the major automakers have been loath to say so. Embracing EVs is a treacherous pivot in a highly competitive market where traditional automakers must compete against one another while also fending off new electric vehicle makers like Tesla Inc. and Rivian Automotive Inc. — companies that aren't burdened with a legacy to protect. The foundation of the global automotive market is still the internal combustion engine, and despite the billions of dollars that car companies have committed to building EVs for the future, today's balance sheet depends on selling the gas-powered ones on the lot.In the span of the next two years, Americans will see Ford electrify the country's longtime bestselling vehicle, the F-150 truck, and the storied Mustang brand with the Mach-E. GM aims to reinvigorate the Cadillac with an electric crossover called the Lyriq and roll out an electric version of the Hummer, which was once the stereotype of the exhaust-spewing SUV. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is pinning its U.S. hopes on the ID.4, the first in what is expected to be a long line of EVs and a transition away from its diesel scandal five years ago (Energywire, Sept. 24). Marketing experts said that companies like GM, Ford and VW are walking a tightrope by trying to get customers excited about the new product without diminishing enthusiasm for the old. They are at the early phase, when the electric models are promised but not yet delivered.
California's Salton Sea offers chance for US battery supply chain, despite financial, policy challenges - Developing a lithium industry in California's Salton Sea, an area that experts think could supply more than a third of lithium demand in the world today, could help set up a multi-billion dollar domestic supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, according to a new report from New Energy Nexus. But doing so will require navigating multiple financial and policy-related challenges, including receiving financial backing for demonstrating and commercializing lithium recovery projects, the report noted — without which, manufacturers could be hesitant to enter into contracts with lithium producers. For the power sector, having a domestic supply chain for lithium-ion batteries could allow projects to move faster, said Todd Tolliver, senior manager of storage technologies at ICF. "And given the volatility in financing that we've heard a lot about, to of course the dynamics of the global pandemic … it may help with some of the financing risk that's involved in the process." The Salton Sea, located in southeast California, is the largest inland body of water in the state and a geothermal resource, currently hosting 11 geothermal plants. Regulators in California have been eyeing the potential of the region to be a 'Lithium Valley' for a while now; in May, the California Energy Commission (CEC) awarded around $10 million in grants for three geothermal-related projects, in part because of the potential to boost the state's emerging lithium recovery sector. Lithium deposits in the Imperial Valley could result in annual revenues of as much as $860 million, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the CEC noted at the time. One of the benefits of this resource is that it's effectively a byproduct of the already existing geothermal power production business in the area, Kennedy said — the brine is already being brought to the surface for industrial purposes and power production, "and then as it's cooled on the surface, the salts will be precipitated out and extracted," said Kennedy, adding that this limits the additional physical footprint that's required to expand lithium extraction opportunities.
Hydrogen-powered trains get the green light as Siemens Energy and Mobility sign joint agreement - The newly-listed Siemens Energy has signed a memorandum of understanding with Siemens Mobility to "jointly develop and offer hydrogen systems for trains." Announced on Monday, the partnership is the latest example of companies attempting to ramp up and expand the use of hydrogen fuel-cell technology. The collaboration will look to produce "a standardized hydrogen infrastructure solution for fueling the hydrogen-powered trains of Siemens Mobility." In addition, the idea is that the products of the partnership will be offered to external customers in order to "promote the hydrogen economy in Germany and Europe and support decarbonization in the mobility sector." The broad aim is to link up Siemens Energy's work on the production of green hydrogen – a term that refers to hydrogen produced using renewable sources such as wind and solar – with Siemens Mobility's specialism in transportation. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), hydrogen is a "versatile energy carrier." Generating it does have an environmental impact, however. The IEA has said that hydrogen production is responsible for roughly 830 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year. It's within this context that the idea of green hydrogen is so attractive.
As the wood pellet industry grows across the South, Enviva targets Alabama and Mississippi for future expansion. - the wood pellet industry continues to grow across the South, Enviva has targeted Alabama and Mississippi for future expansion. The company is building facilities producing significantly larger quantities of wood pellets for export through a deep water marine port and storage silo currently under construction in Pasagoula, Mississippi. In each state, the company's pitch remains the same: jobs and economic development. "They go into these low wealth communities, promise opportunity, and a lot of residents bite on it," said Rev. Michael Malcom, executive director of Alabama Interfaith Power and Light. "If we could get ahead of this, we could go in and tell them about the dangers of the wood pellet industry. But unfortunately, the way the system works in Alabama, ADEM keeps things under wraps until it's time for the public hearing." Alabama has the third most timberland acreage in the contiguous 48 states, much of it in the form of pine plantations owned by private absentee landowners disconnected from local residents. Enviva's first Alabama facility will be located in a small Black town called Epes, and is projected to open in 2021, with a production capacity of over one million metric tons of wood pellets per year. The Alabama Department of Environmental Management (ADEM) approved the permit last December, with additional support from Alabama governor Kay Ivey. The Northampton plant is one of four Enviva plants in North Carolina. Enviva Biomass is world's largest manufacturers of wood pellets. Photo courtesy of Dogwood Alliance. Malcom said it is likely that Enviva spends as much as a full year making the case for a new manufacturing plant in a community, promising good jobs and low environmental impacts. "When they announce [the facility], it's already too late. [Enviva has] already gone in [to the community] and greased the wheel," Malcom told EHN.
Backup battery helps reduce electricity outages in remote Illinois community - As utilities around the country plan for more energy storage on the grid, a battery system in rural Illinois that’s been up and running since 2017 can provide some lessons. Thebes, Illinois, is in the far southwest corner of the state, wedged between the Mississippi River and rugged hillsides — geography that makes it difficult for Ameren Illinois to provide reliable electric service for the town’s roughly 330 residents. The solution was an innovative solar battery system, which has dramatically reduced both the number and duration of outages. Before the system was put into place in Thebes, crews of workers would have to navigate the hilly terrain to restore power, resulting in much lengthier outages, according to Rod Hilburn, manager for Ameren’s Technology Applications Center. “You’ve got the Mark Twain National Forest. You’ve got lots of trees. You have flooding from the rivers that are down there,” Hilburn said. “And so our reliability for these customers was not real good.” With the battery system in place, residents of Thebes enjoy much more reliable electric service. The battery system was especially beneficial in minimizing outages in Thebes during a recent period of rough weather earlier this year, according to Brian Bretsch, communications executive for Ameren Illinois.
Group contends Quebec-NYC powerline would hurt sturgeon — An environmental group has filed a formal objection with federal regulators over the proposed Champlain Hudson Power Express power line between Quebec and New York City, contending that the underwater cable could violate the endangered species act by harming Atlantic sturgeon habitat in the Hudson River. “There can be no doubt that construction of the Project would adversely affect designated critical habitat for sturgeon in the Hudson River,” reads part of a Notice of Violation that the Center for Biological Diversity and other groups sent Thursday to the federal Department of Energy and Army Corps of Engineers. The federal agencies have essentially approved the power line, although it still needs some stormwater permits and customer contracts to move forward. But the complaint notes that the federal National Marine Fisheries Directorate, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in August 2017 concluded that the Hudson was critical habitat for the sturgeon. That habitat designation came three years after the DOE and Army Corps concluded that the power line was environmentally acceptable, so now the Center maintains the agencies need to take another look at the project. “Since then this additional habitat has been designated under the Endangered Species Act,” said Meg Sheehan, a volunteer lawyer for the North American Megadam Resistance Alliance. “They have to re-initiate the study.” The Alliance has worked with the Center for Biological Diversity on this issue. The formal violation was also signed by the Innu Nation of Labrador, a Native America group in Canada whose members say they’ve been harmed by the dam projects that support CHPE.
IN BRIEF: 9th Circuit vacates FERC orders in PG&E power contracts - Reuters - The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday vacated orders from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission holding that Pacific Gas and Electric Co could not back out of wholesale power contracts without the regulator’s consent, but declined to address the underlying dispute over the contracts.A three-judge 9th Circuit panel concluded in a seven-page decision that because PG&E, which emerged from bankruptcy this summer, did not ultimately cancel the contracts, the underlying dispute is moot. PG&E assumed the contracts in question through its reorganization plan. To read the full story on Westlaw Today, click here: bit.ly/3jH3rcq
Tri-State announces goal to cut rates 8%, give member cooperatives more flexibility - Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, which has taken heat from members for rates and what they say is a lack of flexibility, said Wednesday that it will cut rates by 8% and allow individual electric associations to produce more of their own power. Building on a previously announced plan to boost its use of renewable energy, Tri-State said its goal is to lower wholesale electric rates by 8% by the end of 2023. And the Westminster-based power supplier said starting in early 2021, member cooperatives can say they want to generate more power locally, up to 300 megawatts across the utility’s four-state territory. A longtime 5% cap on the amount of power individual cooperatives could generate has been a point of contention among Tri-State’s members and one of the reasons given by cooperatives that have cut ties with the utility or want to.The utility’s 42 members includs 17 electric cooperatives in Colorado. Tri-State CEO Duane Highley and Wednesday’s announcements are part of ongoing efforts to increase the utility’s use of renewable energy and to cut its carbon emissions. He called the planned rate reduction a “green energy dividend.” Some member cooperatives, environmental advocates and legislators have criticized Tri-State for relying too much on coal and limiting members’ ability to pursue their own renewable energy projects. In the past few years, the utility has added more wind and solar power to its system and closed or announced plans to close some of its coal-fired power plants. In January, Tri-State unveiled its “Responsible Energy Plan.” It includes goals of boosting its renewable energy sources to 50% by 2024 and cutting greenhouse-gas emissions by 90% by 2030 from Colorado facilities it owns or operates.Former Gov. Bill Ritter is director of the Center for the New Energy Economy at Colorado State University. He and his staff worked with Tri-State on the energy plan, convening what he said was a large and diverse group of people to give input.“It demonstrates to me that Tri-State’s commitment is not just a paper commitment but a concrete commitment to how they will be part of the clean energy transition, not just in Colorado but in the United States,” Ritter said during a call with Tri-State and reporters.
Inside the Utility Company Lobbying Blitz That Will Hike Electric Bills — ProPublica - When Democrats campaigned for the Virginia legislature last year, they took aim at the state’s largest power broker: Dominion Energy. The electric utility’s clout was legendary in the state Capitol, where it doled out millions in campaign contributions and employed an army of lobbyists who helped write energy policy for decades. The result was soaring electricity bills and an energy grid heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Democrats vowed to change that. After winning total control at the Capitol for the first time in a generation, lawmakers unveiled the Clean Economy Act. They said it would phase out carbon-based energy and lower consumers’ power bills. In a stark display of role reversal, one of Dominion’s top lobbyists watched from the back of the room as Democratic lawmakers stood alongside environmentalists and clean energy backers to introduce the legislation at a press conference. But over the next 11 weeks, Dominion fought back and ended up as a winner in a bill intended to diminish its influence. By doubling the size of its lobbying corps and tapping its long-standing relationships with legislative leaders and Gov. Ralph Northam, the utility secured in the Clean Economy Act the right to build its top priority: a massive offshore wind farm set to be the most expensive utility project in Virginia history. State regulators estimate a typical residential customer will pay nearly $70 more per month for the same amount of electricity by the end of the decade. About 40% of that increase is tied to the new law.
‘The Coal Industry Is Back,’ Trump Proclaimed. It Wasn’t. - — For decades, waves of electricity poured from this behemoth of a power plant on the high desert plateau of the Navajo reservation in northern Arizona, lighting up hundreds of thousands of homes from Phoenix to Las Vegas as it burned 240 rail cars’ worth of coal a day.But as the day shift ended here at the Navajo Generating Station one evening early this year, all but a half-dozen spaces in the employee parking lot — a stretch of asphalt larger than a football field — were empty.It was a similar scene at the nearby Kayenta coal mine, which fueled the plant. Dozens of the giant earth-moving machines that for decades ripped apart the hillside sat parked in long rows, motionless. Not a single coal miner was in sight, just a big, black Chihuahuan raven sitting atop a light post.Saving these two complexes was at the heart of an intense three-year effort by the Trump administration to stabilize the coal industry and make good on President Trump’s 2016 campaign promise to end “the war on coal.”“We’re going to put our miners back to work,” Mr. Trump promised soon after taking office.He didn’t.Despite Mr. Trump’s stocking his administration with coal-industry executives and lobbyists, taking big donations from the industry,rolling back environmental regulations and intervening directly in cases like the Arizona power plant and mine, coal’s decline has only accelerated in recent years. The story of the complex in Arizona demonstrates the lengths the administration went to in helping a favored industry, the limits of its ability to counter powerful economic forces pushing in the other direction and ultimately Mr. Trump’s quiet retreat from his promises.In the years after Mr. Trump’s election, the federal government offered help valued at as much as $1 billion to keep this one power plant and coal mine up and running by embracing an industry plan to relax costly air-quality requirements.A Republican lawmaker from Arizona sought to force one of the state’s largest utilities to continue to buy power from the plant. Peabody, the world’s largest coal company, offered to discount the price of the coal it was selling the power plant from the Kayenta mine. None of it proved to be enough. By late last year, both the Kayenta mine and the Navajo Generating Station had gone offline, a high-profile example of the industry’s broader collapse and the resulting economic and political aftershocks.
Trump's Latest EPA Rollback Lets Polluters Spew More Lead, Arsenic, Mercury --Trump's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has weakened yet another safeguard against air pollution in the midst of a respiratory pandemic.The agency finalized a rollback Thursday of the Clinton-era "once in, always in" policy that required major polluters like industrial plants and refineries to maintain the highest possible levels of pollution controls as long as they continued to operate, Reuters reported."This is a lawless action that will undoubtedly increase carcinogens and other deadly pollution in our air," Clinton EPA administrator Carol Browner said in a statement reported by The Hill. "Taking this action during a global pandemic that preys upon people with existing respiratory ailments further confirms that for Andrew Wheeler and the political leadership of the EPA the cruelty is the point."The agency first proposed reversing the rule in 2018, according to Reuters. The 1995 policy required that major polluters use maximum achievable control technology standards (MACT) throughout the lifetime of their operations. The new policy will allow these facilities to use less stringent standards after they reduce emissions. The so-called "major sources" that reduce their emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAP) will be reclassified as "area sources," emitters like gas stations or dry cleaners that emit less than 10 tons of a single pollutant or 25 tons of multiple pollutants each year."This action reduces regulatory burden and provides a level of fairness and flexibility for sources that reduce HAP emissions below major source thresholds and reclassify as area sources," the agency explained. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler argued that the change would incentivize companies to invest in better technology to reduce emissions. "Today's action is an important step to further President Trump's regulatory reform agenda by providing meaningful incentives for investment that prevents hazardous air pollution," he said in a statement reported by The Hill. However, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) senior attorney John Walke said the reversal was entirely unnecessary. "It's the triumph of extreme ideology over public health, common sense and the law," he told The Hill.
EIA raises forecast for coal generation bump in 2021, and more carbon emissions | Utility Dive The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday, forecasting that coal's share of U.S. electric generation will rise to 24% in 2021, after falling to 20% in 2020 amid ongoing plant closures. In its prior STEO report, released in September, EIA forecast a smaller rebound for coal, to 22% in 2021. The increase in forecasted coal generation for 2021 comes with an increase in forecasted energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. EIA previously expected those emissions to rise 4.8% in 2021, after projecting a 10% drop in 2020, due to decreased energy use in the commercial and industrial sectors amid the coronavirus pandemic. Now, EIA expects energy-related carbon emissions to increase 5.4% in 2021. EIA sees higher CO2 emissions in 2021 "as the economy recovers and energy use increases." It also expects a 19% increase in coal production in 2021 compared to 2020, "reflecting rising demand for coal from U.S. electricity generators because of higher natural gas prices compared with 2020." Coal-fired generation is on a long-term downward trend in the U.S., with plant closures announced on a regular basis and more and more electric utilities announcing net zero carbon targets. But EIA expects the resource will get a bit of a reprieve in 2021, driven by an overall increase in energy use as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, and by high natural gas prices. The Trump administration has been engaged in a long-term campaign to prop up the coal sector, easing environmental regulations and weighing potential ways to support baseload generation. It is also investing significant amounts of money into clean coal research, along with other coal-relevant technology. In New Mexico on Monday, Deputy Energy Secretary Mark Menezes supported the idea of keeping the coal-fired San Juan Generating Station open past its planned 2022 closure date by retrofitting it with carbon capture use and storage (CCUS) technology. "CCUS is an an incredible example of innovation, one that has the potential to drive emissions down to zero, making fossil fuels as emission-free as renewables," he said, according to The Associated Press.But failed efforts to stop the closure of plants in Arizona and Kentucky show the limits of the administration's ability to counter the forces driving coal's decline, the New York Times reported this week.
Several companies weighing Coal Creek purchase - Several companies are considering acquiring Coal Creek Station and the transmission line that runs from the McLean County power plant to Minnesota, a state official told lawmakers Tuesday. Two companies are “very serious” about purchasing both the plant and the line, North Dakota Transmission Authority Director John Weeda said to the interim Energy Development and Transmission Committee. Plans involve potentially building a system to capture the carbon emissions from Coal Creek, as well as constructing energy storage infrastructure and wind farms in the area. Such an investment could total $2 billion, he said. “It’s not just business as usual,” Weeda said. “It’s business as usual, plus enhancements.” He said he’s hopeful a new plant owner would retain most workers at the plant and adjacent Falkirk Mine, which feeds the facility with lignite coal. Great River Energy announced earlier this year that it intends to close the plant in 2022 unless it can find a new owner, an effort state officials are helping facilitate. Coal Creek has faced financial woes for several years as it’s struggled to compete in a market saturated with cheap natural gas and renewable power. Weeda said at least four companies are entertaining purchasing the high-voltage direct current power line alone, without Coal Creek. Such a prospect would involve new wind development that connects to the line, and Coal Creek would shut down, he said. A new power line owner could potentially build a terminal along the line midway across the state, Weeda said. If that were to happen, it would allow wind farms east of North Dakota’s coal country in the west central part of the state to connect to it. Securing transmission space on the power grid is a problem that plagues the region's wind developers, who seek an outlet for the electricity generated by new wind farms. Congestion on the wires has stalled some proposed wind projects. “You can pretty much count on the fact that when we get some transmission, wind developers will be back,” Weeda said.
Georgia Power issues progress update on coal ash pond closures - — Significant construction activity is completed or well underway at 19 of Georgia Power’s 29 coal ash ponds across the state slated for permanent closure, the Atlanta-based utility announced Tuesday.The other 10 ash ponds are being closed in place under a plan Georgia Power first unveiled in 2015.The company plans to spend $1.5 billion to $2 billion to close all of its ash ponds at 11 coal-fired power plants to meet federal regulations for handling coal ash as well as a stricter state rule.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency clamped down on pollution from ash ponds in response to a 2008 spill of 5.4 million cubic yards of coal ash at a plant near Kingston, Tenn., that smothered about 300 acres of land.Milestones Georgia Power cited Tuesday include dewatering of ash ponds, now in progress at six sites: Plant Bowen near Cartersville, Plant McDonough in Smyrna, Plant McManus near Brunswick, Plant McIntosh in Rincon, Plant Branch in Milledgeville and Plant Yates near Newnan, with state-approved plans for Plant Mitchell in Camilla and Plant Hammond near Rome.The company also has installed more than 550 monitoring wells around its ash ponds and on-site landfills to measure groundwater quality.“As Georgia Power continues to make significant progress on our plans to safely close all of our ash ponds, our focus remains on protecting the environment and our surrounding communities,” said Mark Berry, vice president of Environmental and Natural Resources for Georgia Power. Georgia Power also is investing heavily in recycling stored coal ash. Earlier this year, the company announced plans at its retired Plant Mitchell site to remove stored coal ash for beneficial reuse. During the next several years, about two million tons of ash are to be removed from the onsite ash ponds to help create Portland cement, which is used to make concrete. Through July, approximately 11,100 tons of ash had been removed at Plant Mitchell for reuse.
Judge: Roane leaders waited too long to sue TVA over coal ash - A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit filed by Roane County leaders against the Tennessee Valley Authority and contractor Jacobs Engineering over the handling of the cleanup of the nation’s largest spill of toxic coal ash. U.S. District Judge Tom Varlan last week dismissed a 2019 lawsuit filed by elected leaders in Roane County and the cities of Harriman and Kingston at the request of defense attorneys for TVA and Jacobs Engineering.The lawsuit accused TVA and Jacobs Engineering of lying about the dangers of coal ash when 7.3 million tons of the toxic waste spilled from a dump at the utility’s Kingston coal-fired power plant in December 2008. Both TVA and Jacobs Engineering have repeatedly denied misleading or endangering Kingston disaster cleanup workers.Varlan opined in last week's ruling Roane County leaders have no one to blame but themselves for the lawsuit's dismissal.They’ve had plenty of time — and lots of publicly available documents — to make their case, he wrote in his ruling, but filed suit only after Kingston disaster cleanup workers won round one in their own toxic tort case against Jacobs Engineering in November 2018. “Here, Plaintiffs, as governmental bodies, cannot reasonably contend that ordinary diligence and inquiry into ‘the largest environmental disaster in United States history’ would not have revealed the dangerous effects of fly ash, one of the toxic chemicals released by the spill, and the threat it posed to Plaintiffs’ communities, particularly in light of a six-year federal public investigation into, and cleanup of, the 2008 spill which was conducted between 2009 and 2015,” Varlan wrote. “Had Plaintiffs exercised diligence in monitoring the spill’s remediation process … or engaged in post-remediation monitoring of their properties and groundwater, Plaintiffs would have discovered the effects of the allegedly deficient remediation process far earlier than they did,” Varlan wrote.
Committee probing Madigan and alleged ComEd bribery scheme won’t meet again till after election - The special statehouse committee probing Michael Madigan’s potential ties to a million-dollar ComEd bribery scheme won’t meet again until after Election Day, thanks to a top Democratic ally of the embattled Illinois House Speaker. State Rep. Emanuel “Chris” Welch, the Hillside Democrat who chairs the Special Investigating Committee, announced Tuesday he’d push its next meeting back to Nov. 5 to shed “the backdrop of a political campaign.” “At every step of this process, our cooperation has been accompanied with the proviso that we will not allow this committee to be used as a stage for political theater — an admonishment our Republican colleagues appear to have taken more as a challenge than as a reflection of this committee’s serious work,” Welch said in a statement. He accused his counterparts across the aisle of revealing “their assumption of guilt” and “wearing two hats” — as impartial investigators and as political campaigners. But the three Republican members of the six-person committee say it’s the Democrats who are driven by politics, delaying the GOP’s “quest for the truth” and protecting Madigan, the man who has been at the center of Illinois politics for nearly four decades. “Chris Welch said that he was going to run a professional investigation. This is not how a professional runs an investigation. This is how a political professional covers up the truth and crushes an investigation,” said state Rep. Deanne Mazzochi, R-Elmhurst, who branded Welch “Chairman Squelch.” “The speaker has spoken, apparently, as he commonly does, through a surrogate, and now that surrogate is Chris Welch,” Mazzochi said. “He’s been told, one way or another, to make it stop.”
Renew the renewables | Toledo Blade editorial - Most of the debate about whether to repeal Ohio’s scandal-tainted House Bill 6 has focused on its main provision, providing a $1 billion bailout to Ohio’s nuclear plants, and the fact that it is at the center of $61 million bribery scandal that led to charges against former House Speaker Larry Householder and his political allies. But as lawmakers mull over what to do with HB6 now that it has been revealed as a vehicle of massive corruption in the state, they ought to consider its other flaws, including the fact that it wiped out Ohio’s genuine renewable energy standards. Gov. Mike DeWine has urged lawmakers to repeal the tainted HB6 and then approve an honest replacement that achieves the same thing — saves the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants and protects the plants’ jobs and communities at the same time. The genuine argument at the heart of HB6 is about preserving Ohio’s energy diversity. In the current age of cheap natural gas, nuclear power just hasn’t been able to compete. But the cost of various energy sources is cyclical and the relative affordability of natural gas, nuclear energy, and other sources will certainly change over time. Among those other sources are true renewable energy such as solar and wind, which took an unconscionable hit in HB6. The bill scaled back renewable-energy goals set in 2008 that would have required Ohio utilities to source 12.5 percent of their energy from renewable sources like solar and wind by 2027. Instead, HB6 sets a goal of sourcing 8.5 percent of Ohio’s energy from renewable sources by 2026 and then the mandates end. Most appallingly, backers of HB6 pointed to this and bragged the bill would reduce consumers’ energy bills. Ohio’s energy policy should encourage more use of renewable energy for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is to improve the state’s environment. But green energy also means jobs in Ohio, particularly for the Toledo region where the solar industry has been growing for years. There are plenty of reasons to wipe away HB6 and replace it with something better. A smart and reasonable renewable energy plan is at the top of the list.
Nuclear plants at center of Ohio subsidy fight operating above wholesale prices | S&P Global Market Intelligence As the owner of two Ohio nuclear plants is pressed to open its books on the profitability of the units, the timing of subsidies at the center of a federal criminal investigation may be a larger issue. An S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis shows Energy Harbor Corp.'s 908-MW Davis-Besse and 1,268-MW Perry nuclear plants, both in northern Ohio, have operating costs higher than wholesale electricity prices. A mid-2019 analysis showed the plants with operating costs running below wholesale electricity prices. The most recent analysis shows wholesale prices in the PJM Interconnection rising through the end of 2020 and into 2021, which is when Ohio's clean air credit for nuclear plants kicks in. House Bill 6, which establishes a $9/MWh credit for clean air resources, provides $150 million in annual financial support for the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear units beginning Jan. 1, 2021, through Dec. 31, 2027. A comparison of wholesale electricity prices and plant operation and maintenance, or O&M, costs modeled from Market Intelligence's Generation Supply Curve suggests that both plants were operating at below wholesale electricity prices through the end of 2018. Davis-Besse's O&M costs were at or above PJM wholesale prices for most of 2019, while Perry generally operated below market prices. In 2019, O&M expenses averaged $25.72/MWh for Perry and $28.11/MWh for Davis-Besse, with the monthly average spot power price in the mid- to high $20s/MWh at the PJM AEP-Dayton hub for the same year. For 2020, modeled O&M costs for both plants hold in the mid- to high $20s/MWh, but the margin against wholesale power prices narrows. PJM AEP-Dayton hub pricing averages approximately $20/MWh in the first nine months of this year, brought down in spring in part because of reduced demand for power due to the coronavirus pandemic. Forwards assessments run in the high $20s/MWh for the remainder of 2020 and throughout 2021. The margins for both plants increase when the proposed clean air credits are included in the analysis. For 2021, Davis-Besse's O&M costs are expected to average $29.07/MWh, with Perry's O&M costs forecast at $26.57/MWh. Forwards assessments top out at $34.43/MWh in January 2021 and average $28/MWh for the year excluding the $9/MWh subsidy.
Opinion: Ohio ratepayers deserve a break, not an increase - In the midst of a pandemic and the resulting economic downturn, Ohio ratepayers are about to see an increase to their utility bills. But it didn’t have to be this way. House Republicans championed and passed House Bill 6 – the tainted bill at the center of the Larry Householder corruption scandal – and House Republicans alone, with their super majority, have the power to now repeal it. But they won’t. The clock is ticking. It has been more than 70 days since we learned about the largest bribery scandal in Ohio history involving the passage of HB 6, and each day that passes without repealing it sees the public trust in the General Assembly eroded even further. A majority of members of the House support a full repeal of HB 6 now, and 80% of Ohio voters do as well. There is no reason this corrupted piece of legislation should not have already been repealed. Unfortunately, while it only took 47 days to pass HB 6, legislation that would repeal it immediately has languished in committees for over two months. Wednesday marked the fourth consecutive unnecessary hearing on these bills. And, since HB 6 was not repealed by Oct. 1, the increased rates to consumers in HB 6 will be set to go into effect at the first of the year. What a way to kick off 2021. What any Capitol insider can see clearly is that Republicans are actually just hoping to run out the clock. They want to make the public think they’re moving the repeal process along, when really they’re doing everything in their power to prevent a HB 6 repeal from coming to a vote. Representative Bill Seitz listens to statements in the House of Representatives at the Ohio Statehouse in downtown Columbus, Ohio, on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. Representative Bill Seitz listens to statements in the House of Representatives at the Ohio Statehouse in downtown Columbus, Ohio, on Wednesday, June 26, 2019. (Photo: Sam Greene/The Enquirer) On Sept. 3, Rep. Bill Seitz – a member of Householder’s leadership team that new Speaker Bob Cupp has allowed to remain in power – defended HB 6 in this publication. Seitz, the architect of the now tainted legislation, is warning that Ohioans will pay higher electric bills if it is repealed. During an economic collapse like the one we are experiencing, a headline like that sparks a lot of attention and concern; but it is not accurate.An analysis by the Ohio Environment Council and others as recently reported in the Columbus Dispatch concludes that the average electric customer will pay $7.01 more a month under a fully implemented HB 6. This increase is a result of the lost efficiency savings, added decoupling charges, less investment in lower-cost renewable energy sources, and added charges for the nuclear subsidies and ongoing charges for coal power plants. Seitz’s scare tactics are as insincere as his caucus’ claims that they actually want to repeal.
Group Seeks Refunding Mechanism For Coal Plant Subsidies -- A consumer advocacy group is filing a complaint with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, calling on the state regulators to allow for a possible refund on electric bills. The motion has to do with a new charge customers pay to subsidize coal plans through House Bill 6. Listen Listening... The Citizens Utility Board of Ohio says ratepayers with FirstEnergy are sending $1 million a month to two coal plants, one in Gallia County and the other in Madison, Indiana. Each customers pays about $0.58 month for the subsidy. The advocates are asking the PUCO to create a legal mechanism in order to refund those ratepayers. The group's Tom Bullock says the coal plant subsidies are part of several measures in HB6, which was allegedly passed through a bribery scheme. "We're pulling on one thread here and they all go back to the source which is that you have public policy driven to benefit the utility perspective and that wasn't balanced appropriately with consumers and other energy users," says Bullock. The refunding mechanism which would only go into effect if lawmakers repeal HB6.
Judge Declines Ohio Attorney General's Request For Injunction In HB6 Civil Case | WOSU Radio A Franklin County judge declined Attorney General Dave Yost's request to stop FirstEnergy, former House Speaker Larry Householder, and others defendants accused in a bribery scheme from donating money to political campaigns. The preliminary injunction asked that FirstEnergy, Energy Harbor, Householder and others be banned from donating money to campaigns or lobbying for HB6, the nuclear bailout law at the heart of the federal racketeering case. Franklin County Judge Christopher Brown ruled against the injunction. Yost says there's still a possibility of filing another injunction to stop new charges set to appear on electric bills in January if HB6 is not repealed. "We still have that billion-dollar money hose out there, and we didn't file a preliminary injunction on that because the money isn't being collected yet and isn't being dispersed," Yost says. Federal investigators say a $60 million bribery scheme funneled money from a utility company, believed to be FirstEnergy, through dark money groups to benefit Householder personally and politically. Investigators say the scheme's end goal was to pass HB6, which provides over $1 billion in subsidies to two nuclear plants owned by FirstEnergy's former subsidiary, now known as Energy Harbor. FirstEnergy has said Yost's civil case is without "legal merit." The company is not yet facing charges in the federal case. The Ohio legislature has held multiple hearings on proposals to repeal HB6, but lawmakers missed a critical deadline if they want to prevent ratepayers from seeing additional charges on their energy bills.
Householder, on trial for corruption, gets endorsement from home county - For two months, Rep. Larry Householder has ignored widespread calls to resign following his arrest and alleged involvement in what prosecutors say is the biggest bribery scheme in Ohio political history. Though he is on trial for racketeering, the Glenford Republican still serves as a state representative and has plenty of support from his native Perry County. The Perry County Republican Party has endorsed Householder for a third term serving the 72nd District. It is one of the only endorsements Householder has received in the fallout of his arrest in July. “He’s still our candidate,” explained Steve Baker, chairman of the Perry County Republican Party. “He still won the primary.” The Ohio Republican Party has declined to endorse Householder this fall, as have the local parties in two other counties in his district — Coshocton and Licking. The Licking County Republican Party website does not even list Householder on its page of GOP elected officials from the area. Householder is unopposed on the 2020 ballot, though four others have filed as longshot write-in candidates. Baker said he is disappointed in the state party’s decision to not endorse Householder, noting a person is innocent until proven guilty. Does Baker think Householder is innocent? “I really don’t know,” he said. “Everything I’ve tried to read, it’s so complicated. I don’t understand it to be honest with you. It’s so many pages.” In a subsequent discussion with the Ohio Capital Journal, Baker emphasized that he had no opinion of the Householder case either way and plans to reserve judgment until the trial has concluded. An 81-page affidavit from federal prosecutors outlined a $61 million racketeering scheme allegedly organized by Householder and four other political operators. The group is accused of conspiring with the former FirstEnergy Solutions of Akron to get a $1.3 billion nuclear bailout bill approved by the legislature and signed into law. Householder is said to have used millions of dollars in “dark money” to get political allies elected in order for him to become speaker of the house in 2019. He succeeded in getting House Bill 6 passed later that summer, though there is now an ongoing effort to get the law repealed. Householder was ousted as House speaker after his arrest, but fellow Republicans in the Ohio House of Representatives have declined to hold a vote to expel him from the chamber entirely.
Ex-legislative candidate files $1 million civil lawsuit against Larry Householder, FirstEnergy - cleveland.com —A Republican former candidate for state legislature has filed a $1 million civil lawsuit against Larry Householder, FirstEnergy and others involved in the House Bill 6 bribery scandal, claiming the ex-House speaker’s operation wrongly used dark money to run defamatory ads against him. It’s the latest legal aftershock following the arrest of Householder and four allies in July on charges they used $60 million in bribe money from FirstEnergy to secure passage of House Bill 6. Householder has proclaimed his innocence, and FirstEnergy has not been accused of any criminal wrongdoing. Bobby Mitchell, a suburban Columbus pastor who filed the suit, asserts some of that money was used by a Householder-allied group, the Growth & Opportunity PAC, to run negative ads against him last February, as he was running for House District 78 southeast of Columbus. The mailers sent out by the PAC accused Mitchell of having a “history of debt and fraud,” as well as a “shady past includes state liens for failure to pay child support.” As a result of the ads, Mitchell’s suit claims he was “exposed to public and political shame and disgrace; his personal character and reputation has suffered greatly; and his political standing has been adversely affected.”The defendants in Mitchell’s lawsuit include Householder, FirstEnergy, Growth & Opportunity PAC, Householder political aide Jeff Longstreth (who was also arrested in July), and Generation Now, a dark-money group that Mitchell says funneled the FirstEnergy money to Growth and & Opportunity.Mitchell initially filed suit back in March in an unsuccessful attempt to win a court order blocking the ads, claiming defamation of character and false light invasion of privacy. He amended his lawsuit on Tuesday to add allegations of a civil racketeering conspiracy. He is seeking $800,000 for the civil racketeering conspiracy claim, $50,000 for defamation of character, and $25,000 for invasion of privacy, among other damages.
Ohio House committee sits on House Bill 6 repeal legislation - For some reason, the Ohio House’s special committee still hasn’t written and passed an HB 6 repeal. Polls have shown Ohio voters want HB 6 repealed — now. And it isn’t as if HB 6 enjoyed widespread legislative support in the first place. In 2019, the House passed it with 51 “yes” votes; 50 is the minimum number required to pass a bill in the House. The Senate passed HB 6 with 19 “yes” votes; 17 is the minimum number required to pass a bill there. And although Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed House Bill 6 in a flash, he — like countless other Ohioans — now wants HB 6 gone. Stalling repeal of House Bill 6, assuming it ever is repealed, might be the House’s most brazen defiance of public opinion beyond House and Senate inaction on Ohio school funding (which the Ohio Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional more than 23 years ago). Yet any leverage that Ohio voters might have to get HB 6 repealed will dwindle after Election Day — 30 days from today. Only a cynic would suggest that the House committee’s talkathon aims to keep HB 6 alive past Election Day. In fairness, some members of the special House committee voted against HB 6 in 2019. And those committee members appear to oppose HB 6 now. But committee action requires a committee vote. Permitting votes is up to the committee’s chair. In turn, the chair and the committee’s other Republicans answer to House Speaker Robert Cupp, a Lima Republican whom fellow House Republicans chose to replace Householder after they’d removed Householder from the speakership. Cupp, as a rank-and-file House member in 2019, voted “yes” on House Bill 6. So did nine of the Ohio House’s 38 Democratic members. And so did the special House committee’s chair, Rep. Jim Hoops, a Napoleon Republican. (Hoops is unopposed for reelection in his northwest Ohio district.) Other GOP members of the special HB 6 committee are Reps. Cindy Abrams of suburban Cincinnati, who’s unopposed in November; Brian Baldridge of Canal Winchester, also unopposed; Rick Carfagna of Westerville; lame duck Phil Plummer of Dayton; Mark Romanchuk of Mansfield, who’s running for a state Senate seat in the 22nd Senate District; Dick Stein of Norwalk; Jason Stephens of Lawrence County’s Kitts Hill, also unopposed; and Scott Wiggam of Wooster.
'I don’t think any of them knew,' Edwards says of House members, aides on Householder scandal - After months of primarily fielding reporter questions through text messages, state Rep. Jay Edwards (R-Nelsonville) sat down with both The Athens NEWS and The Athens Messenger for a rare in-person interview Wednesday where he provided the most extensive public account to date of his thoughts on what’s been dubbed by federal investigators as the largest public corruption scandal in state history. Edwards, who previously said in a statement that the July arrest of his former boss and personal friend former Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives Rep. Larry Householder (R-Glenford) came as a “complete surprise,” said Wednesday that he first got word of the former speaker’s arrest through a 6 a.m. phone call from Jonathon L. McGee, the House’s chief of staff and majority legal counsel, who instructed Edwards to put on a suit and get to Columbus the morning the FBI shared its partial findings of an ongoing investigation into Householder’s central involvement in what’s been described as a $60 million racketeering scheme.Edwards, who served as House majority whip on Householder’s leadership team (he’s still majority whip, but under different leadership), said he, McGee and those close to them were learning of the allegations levied against Householder by the federal government as the media reported them. Beyond that, he said, they were in the dark. Edwards said he’s worked in the past with all of the men who were indicted in connection to the FBI’s investigation and that he even knew some of them personally. But the state representative maintained that he was wholly unaware of their alleged criminal connections described in the federal affidavit filed against them. And despite regular contact with Householder, his staff and other Statehouse aides in-the-know, Edwards again denied any prior knowledge of Householder’s scheme to take tens of millions of dollars from First Energy to influence legislation that ultimately bailed out two Ohio nuclear plants and Householder’s efforts to defeat a ballot initiative that aimed to foil his plans.
Latest challenge raises question of reopening FirstEnergy Solutions’ bankruptcy ruling - Environmental groups have filed a motion asking a federal appeals court to tell FirstEnergy Solutions’ bankruptcy court judge to take action in light of the alleged corruption cases in federal and state court. The Environmental Law & Policy Center, Environmental Defense Fund, Ohio Citizen Action, and the Ohio Environmental Council want the judge to consider suspending execution of the reorganization plan that was confirmed earlier this year. The groups also hope the bankruptcy court will consider if it should revise that confirmation order and conduct additional hearings. The groups filed the motion on Oct. 5. “We’re asking the 6th Circuit to deal with these truly extraordinary circumstances,” in which federal and state corruption charges relate directly to assets involved in the bankruptcy case, said Howard Learner, executive director at the Environmental Law & Policy Center. Among other things, Ohio House Bill 6 authorizes roughly $1 billion in subsidies over the next six years for two nuclear plants owned by Energy Harbor, formerly known as FirstEnergy Solutions. The federal and state cases allege that an unlawful conspiracy used dark money organizations to hide the source of spending from FirstEnergy (known as “Company A” in some documents), its current and former affiliates, and others in order to secure passage of HB 6 and to prevent a referendum on the law. “The remedy that we’re asking in the 6th Circuit complements what the Ohio attorney general has already asked for it its lawsuit,” Learner said. As he sees it, that case effectively asks the state court to “rescramble the eggs” and undo the reorganization. Among other things, the state’s complaint asks that “each Defendant business entity and nonprofit [in the case] be dissolved or reorganized such that no agent, officer or representative found to have engaged in acts in furtherance of [the alleged wrongful conduct] retains a position within the defendant business or nonprofit entity.” The state case also seeks to prevent FirstEnergy Solutions, Energy Harbor, FirstEnergy or other defendants “from receiving any monetary benefit, supplement, credit or offset created by or through” HB 6. Energy Harbor, FirstEnergy and certain current and former subsidiaries have denied any illegal activity. They were not named as parties in the federal case but are defendants in the state case. Likewise, former House Speaker Larry Householder and other defendants have pled not guilty, and no allegations in either case have yet been proven. Nonetheless, the environmental groups say the requested relief is within the court’s authority. “We have framed it very carefully within the 6th Circuit’s equitable power to ask the bankruptcy court to consider whether it should reassess its confirmation order approving the reorganization, in light of the extraordinary revelations that have occurred since the court approved the order,” Learner said.
Here’s why Ohio lawmakers haven’t done anything about scandal-tainted House Bill 6 so far - cleveland.com —Following the July arrest of then-House Speaker Larry Householder on a charge he oversaw a bribery scheme to pass House Bill 6, dozens of Ohio lawmakers quickly signed on as co-sponsors of bills to repeal the tainted energy law.But months later, it’s still unclear what, if anything, the Republican-dominated Ohio General Assembly will do about HB6 before the legislative session ends in December and the public starts paying for a $1 billion-plus bailout of two nuclear power plants in January.The main reason, lawmakers and observers say, is because – much like congressional Republicans' unsuccessful attempts to repeal Obamacare in 2017 – there’s no consensus among GOP lawmakers on what, if anything, to replace HB6 with.Some favor a straight repeal of HB6. Others think it should be replaced, and at least a few believe nothing at all should be done to alter it.“They are all over the place,” said state Rep. Mark Romanchuk of Richland County about his fellow Republicans.There are other reasons as well. Even Republicans who favor repealing and replacing House Bill 6 say they need time to study HB6, an enormously complex law that goes far beyond the nuclear bailout, and make sure that any changes they make to it won’t have unintended consequences for Ohioans.Another factor is that the Senate appears to be leaving it up to the House to decide what to do, as HB6 originated in that chamber. And the House is led by Bob Cupp, a newly elected House speaker who is living up to his reputation for acting deliberatively. “You’ve got Republicans in the caucus who think ‘This is all just going to blow over -- if we just stonewall for long enough, people will forget about it,’” said state Rep. David Leland, a Columbus Democrat. “And then you’ve got people who want to do something, but they’re not sure what they want to do. And then you’ve got a speaker who doesn’t know what he wants to do. It’s a multi-faceted problem for the Republican caucus.”
Columbia Gas fined $156,000 for Leach Xpress violations – TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission LLC has agreed to pay $156,000 to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for pipeline sedimentation and erosion violations in southwest Pennsylvania, Kallanish Energy reports.The violations occurred from June 6, 2017, to Nov. 8, 2019, during construction of the Leach Xpress natural gas pipeline in Greene County.The company and the DEP have agreed to a consent order and agreement.DEP reported numerous violations on a 28.3-acre site in Richhill Township.Erosion and sedimentation discharges from the pipeline construction entered two streams and a damaged a wetland, DEP said.The company was cited for failing to implement best management practices to minimize erosion, failing to implement the erosion plan in its permits, failing to stabilize area where the soil had been disturbed, failing to comply with permit conditio0ns and failing to perform work according to specifications in its permits, it said.Not all the problems have been corrected by the company, the state agency said.It issued two compliance orders to Columbia Gas Transmission.It must also reimburse the Greene County Conservation District $1,126 for costs incurred.
Center Twp. reflects on explosion as Revolution Pipeline construction resumes - Karen Gdula, a retired MSA project manager, grew up on Ivy Lane. When Energy Transfer’s Revolution Pipeline exploded in the early hours of Sept. 10, 2018, the fire’s roar was so loud emergency dispatchers could hardly hear calls for help. “My immediate words to my husband were ‘get dressed, get your meds, we’re going to evacuate,’” Gdula said. “The house shook, and the flames were as high as the pine trees.” Barbara Goblick, who lives near Gdula on Ivy Lane, was making coffee just before 5 a.m. that day. She quickly dialed 911 as her house violently rattled. Emergency responders received as many as 800 calls that morning; residents reported possible plane crashes, tanker truck explosions and meteors as they grappled with what could have caused a fireball so large. “The dispatcher said, ‘What was that noise?’ and I told him it was the fire,” Goblick said. “And I think that’s when it got real for him. Not that he didn't believe us, but it was the sound of it. Some neighbors said they could feel the heat. I don't remember feeling any heat, but every time I think about it, I hear the sound.” Police and firefighters from multiple departments spent 14 to 18 hours assisting Ivy Lane homeowners, rerouting traffic and clearing debris. Goblick’s mother was so startled by the explosion that her legs knocked together and bruised her knees. Another Ivy Lane neighbor was in hospice and on oxygen, causing confusion for first responders. “She could have died that day,” Gdula said. Now, as Energy Transfer resumes Revolution Pipeline construction near the explosion site two years later, Ivy Lane residents are prepared for the worst, but hoping for the best. Just one week after the Revolution Pipeline became active in Beaver County, it burst into flames in a valley near Ivy Lane following heavy rainfall and a subsequent landslide. The blast torched multiple acres of forested areas, destroyed a single-family home, forced the evacuation of nearby residents and caused six high-voltage electric transmission towers to collapse. An investigation found a subsidiary of Dallas-based Energy Transfer had not stabilized a number of areas along the pipeline to prevent landslides. Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protectionlater fined Energy Transfer $30.6 million in civil penalties related to the incident, essentially authorizing the company to resume construction. The 40-mile gathering line travels across Butler, Beaver and Washington counties to feed natural gas liquids from western Pennsylvania into the company’s larger statewide lines.
GRID: Natural gas projects at risk in 4 states, report warns -- Wednesday, October 7, 2020 -- An oversupply of natural gas in the nation's largest regional grid operator's portfolio could pose substantial risks for its customers and investors, according to a new report.
Coal, nuclear retirements in US Midwest might boost gas-fired power demand | S&P Global Platts — As natural gas storage surpasses five-year maximum levels in the US Midwest, a swath of coal and nuclear power plant retirements look to boost gas' share of generation winter over winter, helping balance a towering inventory despite higher hub prices in the region. About 70 MWh of coal-fired capacity has retired since last winter with another 173 MWh offline by the end of this upcoming winter in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and Southwest Power Pool, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. This pales in comparison though to the 619 MWh of nuclear generated capacity lost this year. Overall, these losses should provide more opportunity for gas-fired generation in the region. Last winter power burn exceeded expectations thanks to low cash prices. Chicago averaged just $1.90/MMBtu last winter, down from an average of $3.00/MMBtu the past five years. This incentivized greater coal-to-gas switching and boosted power burn in the Midwest to 3.8 Bcf/d. This winter, Platts Analytics expects stronger prices to weaken power burn by a sizable 595 MMcf/d from last winter in the region. However, these winter-over-winter losses could be mitigated in part by the retirement at the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa. Duane Arnold was Iowa's only nuclear power plant and ran from 1975 to August 2020. The plant was scheduled to retire at the end of October, but the plant could not restart after heavy El Derecho rains in early August, pushing the retirement earlier than expected. The nuclear plant had a nameplate capacity of 619 MWh. US Energy Information Administration data, however, showed the plant averaged 445 MWh in the winter of 2019 and 2020 and hit as high as 456 MWh in January 2020. This lost generation could help boost power burn by 85 MMcf/d if gas fills in for all of the lost nuke output. The region has also seen smaller coal retirements with 129 MWh lost with the JB Sims and TES Filer City Stations in Michigan during the first half of the year. The loss of another 173 MWh is expected with the closure of the Dallman coal-fired power plant in Illinois later this year. Last winter both ran below their nameplate capacity, with JB Sims averaging 22 MWh out of its 68MWh capacity, TES Filer City at 34 MWh of 61 MWH, and Dallman at 81 MWh of 173 MWh. While these plants present a combined 302 MWh of nameplate capacity, only 138 MW was utilized last winter. The lost coal-fired capacity could boost power burn by 26 MMcf/d. Platts Analytics forecasts power burn to decline this year from last assuming normal temperatures and stronger prices. The EIA, however, estimates 22% of the Midwest primarily heat their home with electricity while 20% also use it as a secondary heating source. The loss of generation from coal and nuclear retirements this winter will therefore provide a substantial upward risk to Platts Analytics winter power burn forecast. The region also has a surplus of gas in storage to draw upon, with levels towering above the five-year maximum since August. Cooler winter-over-winter temperatures would only further boost power demand, exacerbating the effects of these retirements. The National Weather Service forecasts Midwest temperatures to be slightly cooler than normal for winter 2020-21.
Trump pounds fracking as a wedge issue in Pa. But if it's not a top concern for voters, how much can it help? - Pennsylvania has emerged as one of the key swing states in the presidential election. And while natural gas drilling is near the bottom of a list of concerns for the state’s voters, fracking just keeps coming up.It got a surprising amount of air time during Wednesday’s vice presidential debate between Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris and Republican Vice President Mike Pence.“They want to abolish fossil fuels and ban fracking,” Pence said. “Joe Biden will not ban fracking, he’s been very clear about that,” countered Harris. In fact, Joe Biden can’t actually ban fracking, at least not in Pennsylvania. The technology that helped tap Pennsylvania’s deeply buried shale gas transformed some of the state’s quiet farm and forest communities over the past 12 years. It’s created good-paying jobs, and an influx of cash for people who lease their land to gas drillers. And that’s something President Trump likes to bring up, as at a recent rally at Harrisburg International Airport in Middletown. “You’re a big fracker,” Trump told the crowd. “It’s a big business here, 900,000 jobs.” Quick fact check here: That number is wrong. The state puts the figure at about 26,000 jobs in the oil and gas sector. That’s less than 1 percent of all jobs in the state. It doesn’t even make the state’s top 50 list of employment sectors. And even the industry claims a job figure of about 300,000, which is one-third of Trump’s number. On his trips to Pennsylvania, he’s repeatedly accused his Democratic opponent Joe Biden of wanting to ban fracking. “He wants to eradicate all the things that you’re doing, all the things that are bringing in so much money for your state, it’s a disgrace,” Trump told the crowd in Middletown. “Now he’s trying to say, well, I didn’t really mean that.” The Democratic party’s progressive wing has pushed for a ban on fracking because of the environmental damage drilling caused in some areas, including Pennsylvania. But a president cannot ban fracking on private land — only Congress can do that. And the vast majority of fracking in Pennsylvania takes place on private and state land. The state leases about 11 percent of its land — 251,233 acres — to gas drillers.What Biden says he wants to do — as part of his larger plan to tackle climate change — is stop leasing any new oil and gas rights on federal land. But Pennsylvania has very little federal land. The only place where federal leases exist are in the Allegheny National Forest, where there are three oil and gas leases that span about 855 acres.
Whistleblower claims Mariner East construction lacks proper safety measures related to sinkholes, subsidence | StateImpact Pennsylvania -A professional geologist who worked on the Mariner East pipeline project says pipeline builder Sunoco/Energy Transfer prevented him and other geologists from inspecting and reporting on dangerous subsidence, or sinkholes, during construction.The whistleblower says professional geologists were prevented from speaking to drillers, unable to gain access to drill sites, told to change the name from subsidence to “earth feature” in reports, and had their mandated reports to agencies like the Department of Environmental Protection edited and changed by non-geologists.He says the company had what they called a “limited disturbance policy” whereby geologists should only report subsidence issues within a specific area. Failing to follow the policy would risk termination.The claims are detailed in a notice of intent to sue Sunoco by the Clean Air Council. The legal notice was sent to the company on Tuesday. The whistleblower is not identified in the document. Tim Fitchett, staff attorney for Fairshake Environmental Legal Services, is representing Clean Air Council in the case. Fitchett said Sunoco fired the geologist after he reported a sinkhole in Chester County that lay outside the area defined by the company’s “limited disturbance policy.”Clean Air Council sued Sunoco in 2017, which resulted in a settlement agreement with the company and DEP.“Sunoco is so scared of what its scientists will find in investigating its pipeline construction that it’s muzzled them and doctored their reports,” said Joseph Minott, executive director and chief counsel of Clean Air Council.Sunoco’s erosion and sediment control permits issued by the Department of Environmental Protection require the company to report subsidence and stop work until a plan is created and approved by DEP. But Fitchett said the geologist witnessed examples where work stopped for about a week, the subsidence was “cursorily” monitored, and reports issued to DEP claimed no issues. At that point, work would restart at the site. Fitchett said the geologist saw issues similar to the kinds of subsidence that occurred in Beaver County at another Energy Transfer pipeline construction site, which led to an explosion in September 2018. No one was injured in the Revolution Pipeline incident, but it burned a house to the ground. Fitchett said the geologist decided to inform the Clean Air Council of his experiences due to safety concerns.
It Takes Two, Part 2 - U.S. Ethane Export Terminals, Throughputs, and Cargo Destinations | RBN Energy - Taken together, the ethane-related infrastructure projects developed in the U.S. over the past several years serve as a reliable feedstock-delivery network for a number of steam crackers in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. NGL pipelines transport y-grade to fractionation hubs, fractionators split the mixed NGLs into ethane and other “purity” products, ethane pipelines move the feedstock to export terminals fitted with the special storage and loading facilities that ethane requires, and a class of cryogenic ships — Very Large Ethane Carriers, or VLECs — sails ethane to mostly long-term customers in distant lands. The end results of all this development are virtual ethane pipelines between, say, the Marcellus/Utica and Scotland, or the Permian and India. Today, we continue our series on ethane exports with a look at the two existing export terminals, the ethane volumes they have been handling, and where all that ethane has been headed. As we said in Part 1, U.S. fractionators are now churning out record volumes of ethane, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) last week reporting the highest production volume ever: 2.2 MMb/d for July 2020. We estimate that around a million additional barrels per day on average this year has been “rejected” into the natural gas stream at processing plants and sold (at the price of gas) for its Btu value (see Turnin’ Natgas into Gold). Most important to the export focus of this series, about 280 Mb/d, or 14% of total U.S. ethane production, has been sent to other countries so far in 2020. More than one-third of that 280 Mb/d is being piped to Canadian steam-cracker customers on either the Vantage, Mariner West, or Utopia pipelines. The rest is being loaded on VLECs or smaller ethane tankers and sent to crackers in a number of other countries, with the vast majority going to these seven: India, the UK, Norway, China, Mexico, Sweden, and Brazil. These export numbers represent a big change from just a few years ago. Ethane exports from the U.S. only started in 2014, when the Vantage and Mariner West pipelines to Canada came online. And it wasn’t until March 2016 when the first ethane was loaded onto ships for export, first from the Marcus Hook marine terminal near Philadelphia, and then from Morgan’s Point Ethane Export Terminal in the Houston area, which didn’t occur until September 2016 — barely four years ago. Before those terminals opened for business, nary a drop of ethane had ever moved via ship to ethylene crackers. Today, we discuss the Marcus Hook and Morgan’s Point export facilities, which so far account for all U.S. ethane exports by ship.
Shell says Pennsylvania ethane cracker about 70% complete (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc said on Friday its multibillion-dollar petrochemical complex near Pittsburgh was about 70% complete and remains on track to enter service in the early 2020s.After temporarily suspending construction activities on the ethane cracker in March to limit the spread of coronavirus, Shell said it has been re-introducing workers at a measured pace – bringing the total number of workers on site to about 6,500.“As we safety ramp up to a pre-pandemic level of activity, the project remains on schedule to be completed sometime in the early 2020s,” Shell spokesman Curtis Smith said.
Big Oil quietly built a plastics and chemicals empire worth billions. Now Exxon, Shell, and other giants are betting it will help save them in a future without gas-powered cars. - Most people are familiar with oil giants like Shell and Chevron, largely because they sell gasoline and diesel at stations across the country — fuel, after all, is the biggest market for oil companies. But there's a large and growing part of Big Oil that's less visible to the public: petrochemicals.Petrochemicals, or chemicals derived from petroleum, are absolutely everywhere.They're used to make plastics, yes. But they're also in laundry detergents and windshield wiper fluids. They're in the blades of wind turbines. And they're key ingredients in hand sanitizers and other products that have surged in demand during the pandemic. For years, petrochemicals have fueled Big Oil, and vice versa.From 2015 to 2018, for example, chemicals represented about a quarter of Exxon's earnings, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. That proportion has since fallen substantially, due to an industry-wide drop in margins, but the bank says profits are poised to recover as chemicals rebound from a pandemic-driven slump."Exxon's business is easily big enough to be a standalone company," Sam Margolin, an analyst at Wolfe Research, said. "That should give you a sense of scale."Now, petrochemicals look like an even better bet, as Big Oil faces an unprecedented challenge: Over the long term, demand for gas-powered cars, and the fuel that runs them, is set to weaken as more people opt for electric vehicles.In fact, by 2050, petrochemicals are projected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest driver of growth in oil demand, according to the International Energy Agency. So it's no surprise that companies like Exxon, Shell, and Total have all been bulking up their chemical arms. That could be good for their bottom line, and even push them closer to their climate-change targets. But petrochemicals create another big problem — plastic waste. Chemicals were a smart bet well before the oil price downturn or electric car revolution, especially for companies experienced in turning oil and gas into other products.The market for chemicals is huge, worth more than a half a trillion dollars in the US alone, according to the American Chemistry Council. It's also growing faster than global GDP, said Alan Gelder, an analyst at the research firm Wood Mackenzie."What they've been doing over the last 40 years is effectively displacing other materials," Gelder said of chemicals, which is why petrochemicals are growing at what he calls "GDP-plus." A future with fewer gas-powered cars only makes chemicals more appealing to oil companies looking to keep growing. Thus, many of the integrated oil majors including Exxon, Shell, and French energy giant Total are doubling down on their chemical bets, even as they cut elsewhere to stay afloat in the wake of a pandemic-fueled collapse in oil prices. BP is the notable exception, having sold off its chemicals business earlier this year."They all view petchems as among the fastest-growing product group within the hydrocarbon value chain," Jason Gabelman, an energy analyst at Cowen, said. Exxon, which dominates the chemical space among majors, broke ground on four large projects in 2019. "We feel very well positioned in that business," Neil Chapman, SVP of Exxon, told investors this summer.
State approves $56 million settlement with Columbia Gas for Merrimack Valley gas explosions - The Boston Globe - A settlement agreed upon in July that requires Columbia Gas of Massachusetts to pay $56 million for its role in the 2018 Merrimack Valley gas explosions was approved by the state Department of Public Utilities on Wednesday, officials said.The settlement also requires Columbia Gas to leave Massachusetts and transfer its assets to Eversource Energy, the department said in a statement.The agreement resolves the department’s investigation into the company’s pipeline safety compliance and emergency response related to the September 2018 explosions.
Weymouth officials, residents want to see gas company's emergency plan - — Officials are pushing to get more information on the emergency response plan for the newly-completed natural gas compressor station on the banks of the Fore River following two incidents at the facility in less than three weeks that caused emergency releases of gas. Alice Arena, president of the Fore River Residents Against the Compressor Station, went before town council at its virtual meeting this week regarding safety, risk and evacuation planning at the compressor station, which is close by the MWRA sewage pumping station, Fore River Bridge, numerous industrial facilities and hundreds of homes. Arena said Enbridge, the energy company that owns the compressor station, is required to have an emergency plan, yet has released no information on how it will build and maintain communications with local first responders, make personnel, equipment, tools and materials available during an emergency, evacuate residents and other factors. “It is simply unacceptable that this compressor station has received its final operating permit from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, but we still have no safety and evacuation plan available to the vulnerable residents and no risk assessment was ever done by federal or state agencies,” Arena said.
‘Less-than-ideal bedfellows’: Mountain Valley Pipeline payout prompts criticism - Maury Johnson has been tangling with a long, skinny, unwelcome intruder — the Mountain Valley Pipeline — on his West Virginia homestead for close to six years. He and his rural neighbors figured the Appalachian Trail Conservancy would continue to back them as they strategized to prevent the long-delayed, contentious natural gas pipeline from being buried along 303 miles of sensitive West Virginia and Virginia habitat. So, Johnson was crestfallen when he learned in mid-August that the nonprofit Conservancy had signed a $19.5 million “voluntary stewardship agreement” with the handful of companies building the pipeline. A Conservancy staffer delivered the news via telephone minutes before a press release landed in his inbox. “It shocked me so much that I almost fell to the floor,” said the 60-year-old retired farmer and former teacher from Monroe County. “At first, I wanted to drop my membership in the Conservancy. But then I thought, wait a minute, membership gives me power because they have to be responsive to members.” The Conservancy, founded in 1925, is the guardian of the storied footpath that stretches 2,193 miles from Georgia to Maine. Its charge, the Appalachian National Scenic Trail, is a unit of the National Park Service. Johnson convinced his anti-pipeline colleagues to hold off on a protest at the Conservancy headquarters in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, until he composed a letter to Sandi Marra, the president and CEO of the nonprofit, and checked in with other allies. “I didn’t want to be confrontational with Sandi,” he said, adding that other Conservancy staffers had reassured him that anti-pipeline efforts would not be ignored just because of the pact. Johnson is upset enough that the Mountain Valley Pipeline is slated to be buried under a lengthy section of his 150-acre farm. But he’s also heartsick because his once-pristine view of Peters Mountain is now of chain-sawed trees. That’s about 11 miles from his home and where the pipeline will likely cross under the Appalachian Trail in the Jefferson National Forest on the Monroe County, West Virginia-Giles County, Virginia border.
Stream-Crossing Permits Bring New Court Challenges as MVP Awaits Construction Restart - In keeping with an extensive history of persistent legal opposition to Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP), environmental groups have asked a federal appeals court to stay recently updated waterbody-crossing permits for the 303-mile, 2 million Dth/d natural gas conduit. In petitions filed Monday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, a coalition of plaintiffs including the Sierra Club has asked the court to put a hold on MVP’s Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP 12) approvals, issued by the Huntington, WV, and Norfolk, VA, districts of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The groups have asked the Fourth Circuit to issue a stay while the court reviews the approvals, arguing that the Army Corps has failed to meet standards laid out in the federal Endangered Species Act and that the NWP 12 issued by the Huntington District “relies on unlawful modifications.” The groups claimed that “MVP’s haste” to restore its federal permits and complete construction on the project “necessitates this stay motion.”The NWP 12 approvals are among a number of federal permits that have come under scrutiny since MVP secured its FERC certificate in 2017, with opposition groups scoring key legal victories that have stalled construction progress on the pipeline. After securing a number of updated and reissued permits in recent weeks, including a new Endangered Species Act review conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, MVP has been seeking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s blessing to resume construction activities. The operator has pointed to adverse impacts on landowners and the environment from temporary stabilization on unfinished stretches of the pipeline, which is designed to transport Marcellus and Utica shale gas from West Virginia to an interconnect with the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line in Virginia. MVP has sought to further bolster its case to resume construction by pointing to a draft supplemental environmental impact statement the U.S. Forest Service recently completed for the project. MVP has also received a right-of-way permit from the National Park Service to cross the Blue Ridge Parkway, the operator said in a FERC filing late last week. Genscape Inc. analyst Colette Breshears said in a note to clients Tuesday that the firm anticipates MVP entering full service in March 2021.However, “delays to some of these permits will be consequential, especially the NWP 12 permits,” Breshears said. “Despite their issuance and MVP’s renewed request to construct, these permits aren’t a foregone conclusion” amid the renewed legal opposition.A previously raised issue concerning river crossings in West Virginia “may haunt the project again,” the analyst said.
FERC study finds no risk from protective coating of Mountain Valley Pipeline - Segments of steel pipe stockpiled along the path of a natural gas pipeline, exposed to the elements for two years while lawsuits delayed construction, pose no risk to the surrounding air, soil or water, a federal agency has concluded.In a report released Thursday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission addressed concerns that have been raised about the Mountain Valley Pipeline.An epoxy coating applied to protect the pipe from corrosion may have released toxins in two ways, the theory goes: into the air after it degenerates from sitting too long in the sun, and into groundwater after the 42-inch diameter pipe is assembled and buried.But after more than a year of study, FERC found no basis for the fears about Mountain Valley or the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a similar project that collapsed in July under the weight of multiple legal challenges.The report cites the conclusion of ToxStrategies, a consulting firm hired by Atlantic Coast, that there should be “no impact on human health or the environment from the chalky residue” that forms on the pipes after prolonged exposure to sunlight. After getting the report last year, FERC requested more information, including an assessment of pipeline storage yards. A revised study dated Aug. 27 reached the same conclusion as the first.
Video Conversation: Pipeline Opponents Discuss Lessons Learned – ‘You Can’t Give Up’ - Daily Yonder -- At the height of the summer as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to spread throughout the U.S. — particularly in rural areas —and as protests demanding racial justice continue in cities and towns, several oil and gas infrastructure projects were either cancelled or hit major stumbling blocks. On July 5, Dominion Energy cancelled the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a 600-mile natural gas project the utility proposed to build from West Virginia to North Carolina. A day later, a court ordered the Dakota Access Pipeline to halt operations. On the same day, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a decision to suspend construction on parts of the Keystone XL pipeline. A permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate extension was rejected by North Carolina regulators.The decisions will have a significant impact on movements around public health, anti-racism, and environmental conservation. Oil and natural gas pipelines are typically proposed in rural areas, in communities that are low-wealth and have a history of extraction or other industrial and polluting facilities. They are often routed through communities where Black, Latino, and Indigenous people live. These projects have been in the works for years, with varying degrees of success: The Dakota Access Pipeline already had oil flowing through it; less than 10% of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline was in the ground. The projects, touted as economic silver bullets for rural places by developers, have divided communities, churches, neighborhoods, and families. Those opposing them have spent years working to stop them, writing op-eds for newspapers, filing lawsuits, organizing protests and meetings and fundraisers. Some people camped out in trees for weeks on end. Others trained themselves on how to monitor construction to ensure any environmental damage was reported. Southerly and the Rural Assembly wanted to know about this work: the successes, concerns, and challenges, how these folks have organized against pipeline projects they say are dangerous and unnecessary. We wanted to learn about the mistakes they made, the lessons they’ve learned, and the small and large victories they have celebrated. In late summer, I spoke to Belinda Joyner, an activist in Northampton County, North Carolina, who fought the Atlantic Coast Pipeline; Becky Crabtree, a retired teacher and activist in West Virginia who protested the Mountain Valley Pipeline; and Greg Buppert, senior attorney for the Southern Environmental Law Center, which had multiple lawsuits against the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. We talked about their efforts to oppose fossil-fuel pipelines and what they would tell other folks in rural communities where industrial projects are proposed.
Additional clean up needed at oil spill on WK Parkway— The clean up from a crude oil spill occurring Friday, Sept. 25, on the Western Kentucky Parkway, will continue through Thursday, Oct. 8. The clean up began Monday, Oct. 5.The work zone is eastbound between Central City and the Muhlenberg/Ohio County line. Signage will be in place to alert motorists of the work on the parkway. Motorists can expect an eastbound, right lane restriction while this work is addressed at mile marker 63.8. The work is scheduled for completion Thursday afternoon.
12 million cubic feet of natural gas released after rupture near Florida's Turnpike — Contact 5 is learning new details about a natural gas line that ruptured late last month next to Florida's Turnpike near Lake Worth Road. More than a week and a half after the incident, there is still no word on the cause of the failure. According to a federal incident report, Florida Gas Transmission reported that the rupture of the 18-inch transmission pipeline released 12 million cubic feet of natural gas into the air. Security cameras at a nearby business caught the moment the line ruptured. The incident closed the turnpike for hours and led to a shelter in place and evacuations. A U.S. Department of Transportation incident report located by Contact 5 shows a minor natural gas leak not far from the site in 2012. According to the report, in that incident, only 6,000 standard cubic feet of gas released.
Natural gas production, consumption hit record highs in 2019 – US natural gas production, consumption and gross exports rose to record levels in 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Data recently released in EIA’s Natural Gas Annual shows dry natural gas production rose by 10% to a record-high average of 93.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. U.S. natural gas consumption increased by 3%, and the increase could be attributed to the greater use of natural gas in the electric power sector. Natural gas gross exports rose 29% to 12.8 billion cubic feet per day. The electric power sector consumed 7% more natural gas in 2019 than in 2018. Electric power sector consumption increased because of favorable natural gas prices and ongoing coal plant retirements. Natural gas consumption in all other sectors was flat. The volume of natural gas exports in pipelines and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose for the fifth consecutive year to an average of 12.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. U.S. LNG exports contributed to the majority of the increase. The United States exported more natural gas than it imported in 2019, and net natural gas exports were an average of 5.2 billion cubic feet per day. In 2019, the United States also exported more natural gas by pipeline than it imported for the first time since at least 1985, and this could be attributed to an increase in pipeline capacity to send natural gas to Canada and Mexico. In 2019, dry natural gas production rose by 10%, or by 8.7 billion cubic feet per day, to a record of 93.1 billion cubic feet per day. The increase was the second-largest volumetric increase since at least 1930 and second only to the increase in 2018. Texas and Pennsylvania produce the most natural gas in the United States, and they had the largest increases in natural gas production in 2019. In Texas, dry natural gas production rose 15%, from 19.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2018 to 22.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. In Pennsylvania, the production rose 10%, from 16.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2018 to 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. In Wyoming, natural gas production declined 11%, from 4.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2018 to 3.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. The decrease was the largest year-over-year decline of any state last year.
U.S. natgas rises to 5-week high on higher LNG exports, hurricane worries (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 7% to a five-week high on Monday as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rise and worries production could be shut in again later this week with another hurricane expected in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Delta is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before slamming into the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida on Friday. Front-month gas futures rose 17.7 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at $2.615 per million British thermal units, its highest close since Aug. 31. Despite the rise in the futures, spot gas prices for Monday fell to their lowest in years in several regions of the United States and Canada as mild weather and coronavirus demand destruction cut usage of the fuel for heating and industrial purposes. Gas speculators, meanwhile, boosted their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for a second week in three on expectations energy demand will rise as the economy rebounds once state governments lift more coronavirus-linked lockdowns. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September. Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling so much that output from new wells no longer offsets existing well declines. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 86.8 bcfd this week to 86.4 bcfd next week. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 7.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September as vessels started returning to Cameron in Louisiana.
Winter Severity Doubts Add to Wild US Gas Price Swings -- Rollercoaster moves in the U.S. natural gas market over the past few weeks are underscoring traders’ uncertainty about whether a frigid winter, muted output and rebounding demand will send prices rocketing higher in the coming months. Gas futures settled more than 7% higher on Monday, mimicking gains in oil and equities. But just two weeks ago, prices posted their biggest one-day loss in almost two years. Historical volatility has surged to levels not seen since late 2018, and implied volatility, a measure of how dramatic price swings may be going forward, is the highest in data going back to 2010. Bullish bets on U.S. gas have soared as traders wager on lackluster production and surging demand heading into winter. Liquefied natural gas exports are rising as consumption recovers from pandemic-driven lockdowns, and as terminals restart after storm-related outages and maintenance. Meanwhile, shale output remains subdued as drillers heed investor calls for financial restraint after this year’s oil-price crash. Outsize moves in risk assets amid geopolitical turmoil have magnified the volatility in gas, while a hyperactive hurricane season has disrupted offshore production and LNG exports and triggered blackouts that curtailed gas demand for power generation. “You’ve had a volatile market, but this is the icing on the cake,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. “Guys were stepping in to pick at the bottom.” But as is often the case with the gas market, it all hinges on the weather. Though a La Nina pattern has emerged, which could lead to a chilly winter in the northern U.S., brutally cold conditions are far from certain. A mild December, January and February would limit gas demand for heating and curb withdrawals from underground storage, leaving the market oversupplied heading into spring. Almost half of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey of traders and analysts late last month said winter prices could rise higher than $3 per million British thermal units, perhaps testing $4 or more, a level not seen for years. Hedge funds are the most bullish on gas prices since 2017. Gas futures jumped 17.7 cents to $2.615 in New York on Monday, the biggest gainer among major commodities. Shares of gas producers including Southwestern Energy Co. also climbed. With temperatures not expected to be cooler until late October, EBW AnalyticsGroup CEO Andy Weissman said gas traders are closely watching the recovery process of Cameron LNG, a Sempra Energy-owned export terminal in Louisiana that’s restarting after shutting due to Hurricane Laura in late August. If cold weather doesn’t materialize, money managers will jettison their bullish positions, leading prices to plummet.
U.S. natgas drops 3% on mild forecasts, LNG export hurricane worries - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and worries Hurricane Delta could disrupt liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That price decline came despite a rise in LNG exports so far this week and a drop in output as producers shut Gulf of Mexico wells ahead of the storm. Delta is expected to slam into the Gulf Coast between Texas and Florida as a major hurricane on Friday. Front-month gas futures fell 9.5 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $2.520 per million British thermal units. Earlier in the day, the contract was on track for its highest close since November. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop from 86.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday to 84.2 bcfd on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018 as Gulf Coast producers shut-in wells. That data is preliminary and subject to change later in the day. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said energy firms have already shut-in about 0.2 bcfd, or 9%, of offshore gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 86.0 bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week. That was lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September, as vessels started returning to Cameron in Louisiana. Traders noted Cove Point in Maryland was expected to exit its maintenance outage next week.
U.S. natgas futures rise as producers shut wells ahead of Hurricane Delta | Reuters(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained over 3% on Wednesday as producers shut Gulf of Mexico wells ahead of Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for larger-than-expected demand over the next two weeks. Prices rose despite worries Delta could cut liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as happened with Hurricane Laura in late August. Actual gas flows to LNG export plants, however, were at their highest since April. Delta is expected to slam into Louisiana as a major hurricane on Friday. Front-month gas futures rose 8.6 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $2.606 per million British thermal units. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop from a four-month low of 84.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday to a 26-month low of 83.3 bcfd on Wednesday as Gulf Coast producers shut wells. That data is preliminary and subject to change later in the day. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms shut in 1.3 bcfd, or 49%, of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would slip from 87.0 bcfd this week to 86.8 bcfd next week. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 7.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September. That was on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as higher global gas prices in recent months have prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise by 75 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US working natural gas inventories rose by 75 Bcf last week while an approaching hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico douses LNG export demand in the South-Central storage region. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up US gas in storage increased 75 Bcf to reach 3.831 Tcf for the week ended Oct. 2, Energy Information Administration data showed Oct. 8. The injection was above an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts that called for a 71 Bcf build. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 62 Bcf to 86 Bcf. The injection measured less than the 102 Bcf build reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average gain of 86, according to EIA data. Storage volumes now stand 444 Bcf, or 13%, above the year-ago level of 3.285 Tcf and 394 Bcf, or 11.5%, above the five-year average of 3.351 Tcf. Stock levels for the Continental US were 128 Bcf higher than the previous five-year maximum for this calendar week. Nearly half of those extra volumes were stored in the South-Central region's salt dome facilities, which are 58 Bcf higher than the five-year maximums. NYMEX Henry Hub futures prices were muted the morning of Oct. 8, with November rising 1 cent to $2.62/MMBtu, while the balance of winter was trading about 1 cent lower. After a rocky month of trading, winter strip prices were roughly equal to where they were a month ago, with the strip priced at $3.09 after briefly dropping as low as $2.93 last weekend. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 37 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 9. This would lower the surplus to the five-year average by 50 Bcf. Markets have tightened for the week ending Oct. 9, with the week in progress seeing fundamentals trending more than 4 Bcf/d tighter compared with the week prior. Total supplies week have averaged about 300 MMcf/d lower, after a nearly 1 Bcf/d combined drop in onshore and offshore production was supported, in part, by a 700 MMcf/d increase in net Canadian imports. Downstream, residential and commercial demand has made a strong showing, up nearly 3 Bcf/d week on week, while LNG feedgas demand has ticked up another 700 MMcf/d, helping drive a combined 3.9 Bcf/d increase in total US demand. Injections tightened in response to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Delta from a Tropical Storm to a Category 4 hurricane Oct. 6. Despite the calm start to the week, the South-Central region finishes as the primary driver of weaker US-level injections, with the salt domes alone accounting for nearly half of the week-on-week change.
U.S. natgas up to highest since August as Hurricane Delta shuts output | 路透 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday to their highest since August, as the Gulf of Mexico braced for Hurricane Delta's arrival and the market focused more on production declines than on lower gas flows to the region's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Delta was expected to slam into Louisiana on Friday with winds over 100 miles per hour (161 kph). Traders noted that prices fell early in the session, then turned positive following a report showing an expected, below-normal storage build last week that keeps inventories on track to reach a record high by the end of October. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities injected 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Oct. 2. That is in line with the 73-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 102 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 86 bcf. Front-month gas futures rose 2.1 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.627 per million British thermal units, their highest since Aug. 31. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to drop from a 26-month low of 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday to a preliminary 83.3 bcfd on Thursday as Gulf Coast producers shut wells. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms shut 1.7 bcfd, or 62%, of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production. In Louisiana, Cameron LNG said it would shut its LNG export plant, while Cheniere Energy Inc reduced gas flows to its Sabine Pass facility but planned to keep it operating with a small "ride-out" crew. With LNG exports declining, Refinitiv projected demand would slip from 86.9 bcfd this week to 85.5 bcfd next week.
U.S. natgas highest since November as hurricane shuts output, cold forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped to their highest since November on Friday as production fell to its lowest in over two years after Gulf Coast energy firms shut wells ahead of Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for colder weather and higher demand in mid October. That price increase came despite a drop in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as operators either shut or reduced their Louisiana facilities before Delta makes landfall. Delta was expected to slam into Southwest Louisiana near the Cameron LNG export plant later Friday. The storm has already caused about 12,000 power outages in Louisiana, according to local utilities. Front-month gas futures rose 11.4 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $2.741 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Nov. 8. After rising 19% over the past two weeks, the front-month was up almost 13% this week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states would drop from a 26-month low of 84.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) earlier this week to a preliminary 83.1 bcfd on Friday as Gulf Coast producers shut wells. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms shut 1.7 bcfd, or 62%, of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production. In Louisiana, meanwhile, Cameron shut its LNG export plant on Thursday, while Cheniere Energy Inc reduced gas flows to its Sabine Pass facility from a five-month high of 4.0 bcfd earlier in the week to a preliminary 2.1 bcfd on Friday. Cheniere said it planned to keep Sabine operating with a small "ride-out" crew. Refinitiv projected demand would slip from 87.0 bcfd this week to 85.3 bcfd next week before jumping to 93.2 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns colder and with LNG plants in Louisiana and Cove Point in Maryland expected to return.
Report questions feasibility of LNG industry - A new report released Monday questions not only the environmental impact, but also economic feasibility of the liquid natural gas industry based mostly on the U.S. Gulf Coast — including three proposed and existing facilities in Southeast Texas. In the report “Troubled Water for LNG,” the Environmental Integrity Project tracks the environmental toll of additional releases from LNG facilities and what it characterized as a volatile marketing that has led to 10 proposed projects being delayed by a year or indefinitely while still being approved by the federal government.Locally, the Golden Pass LNG and Port Arthur LNG projects — both planned for the Sabine Pass community of Port Arthur — were listed among six projects that have been delayed by at least a year since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in the United States this spring. Authors of the report posited that such delays weren’t symptoms of the pandemic-related recession, but were the result of an already saturated market that was already becoming unattractive to investors as evidenced by some companies going more than three years after receiving air permits without making a final investment decision.
North American Pipeline Project Roundup: September/October 2020 - Project Roundup - Project Roundup is a monthly feature that summarizes the contracts awarded for pipeline projects in North America. The following oil and gas pipeline projects have been announced. Projects are in order of most recent approximate starting date. All projects are for 2020 unless noted. (dozens)
Pipeline Billionaire Steps Down-- Kelcy Warren, the Dallas billionaire known for controversial pipelines and aggressive dealmaking, is stepping down as chief executive officer of Energy Transfer LP. But if the move is anything like those of fellow moguls in the pipeline industry, he isn’t going far. The company late Thursday named Chief Operating Officer Mackie McCrea and Chief Financial Officer Tom Long as co-CEOs. Warren, 64, will stay on as executive chairman and remains the top investor. He’ll also retain a majority stake in the so-called general partner that controls Energy Transfer’s board. Warren appears to be following a playbook employed by his billionaire rivals in the pipeline industry. Kinder Morgan Inc. founder Rich Kinder continues to serve as his company’s chairman despite relinquishing the CEO title in 2015, and Randa Duncan holds the same spot at Enterprise Products Partners LP after her father, the company’s founder, died in 2010. “Although I am stepping away from the day-to-day management of our business, I will continue to be intimately involved in the strategic growth of Energy Transfer,” said Warren, who has a net worth of about $3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Warren co-founded Energy Transfer in 1996 alongside Ray Davis, who now co-owns the Texas Rangers baseball team. Warren’s appetite for takeovers and his use of the tax-advantaged master limited partnership model allowed him to turn 200 miles of natural gas conduits into one of the biggest pipeline operations in the country. Those same characteristics have frequently earned him the ire of everyone from regulators to environmental groups to investors. Warren rose to national attention for his Dakota Access crude oil pipeline, which triggered months of on-the-ground protests after the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe objected to the path of the project in North Dakota. Even once Dakota Access faded from headlines after the project was fast-tracked by the Trump administration, Warren and Energy Transfer continued to attract scrutiny. When building the Rover natural gas pipeline, the company bulldozed an historic house in Ohio that it had told federal regulators it would use as office space. And Energy Transfer’s Mariner East natural gas liquids pipeline has been blamed for a series of sinkholes in Pennsylvania. Williams Deal Warren has taken a similarly pugnacious approach when it comes to dealmaking. Energy Transfer in 2016 backed out of a $36.6 billion deal with Williams Cos. that would have created the nation’s largest natural gas transporter. Two years later, Energy Transfer made a hostile, and unsuccessful, run at NuStar Energy LP. And despite all the acquisitions he’s managed to make, two dramatic oil-industry downturns have pushed down the value of Energy Transfer to less than $6 billion, from a peak of more than $35 billion in 2015.
Containership no longer leaking fuel in Bayonne terminal - A fuel oil leak from a containership at the Global Container Terminal in Bayonne has been stopped, the U.S. Coast Guard announced on Sept. 30. The container vessel YM Mandate is no longer leaking fuel oil from a crack in the hull. The ship is internally conducting a transfer of fuel oil from the affected tank. Fuel oil is being pumped from the affected tank to a barge alongside the vessel and will continue to be pumped until the affected tank is empty, and repairs to the hull can be made. All leaking product is currently contained within the boom and skimmer system. An oil containment boom, a temporary floating barrier, and absorbent pads have been deployed around the YM Mandate, according to the Coast Guard. Contracted skimming vessels have been working to remove oil from the water. A unified command consisting of the Coast Guard, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, and Gallagher Marine Systems, responded to the report of an oil leak in the water. The National Response Center contacted Coast Guard Sector New York watchstanders on Sept. 28, reporting a sheen near the vessel Yang Ming (YM) Mandate. The YM Mandate was built in 2010 and can hold 6,572 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Each storage container is 20 feet long, meaning the YM Mandate can carry approximately 6,572 storage containers. A Coast Guard Maritime Safety and Security Team (MSST) New York boat crew in the area reported a small crack in the ship’s hull, which was leaking fuel oil. Coast Guard investigators confirmed the leak. YM Mandate activated its Coast Guard-approved vessel response plan by making notifications and activating response resources. The affected tank has a capacity of 462,297 gallons. The amount of fuel oil leaked is not known at this time. The last time an oil spill occurred was in 2018. APM Terminal alerted the National Response Centre that fuel had spilled into Newark Bay while a ship was refueling pier-side at the terminal. While commercial cleanup crews used a boom to contain the fuel and recover it from the waterway, it’s not clear how much oil was spilled and how much was recovered.
Delta Threatens Louisiana Energy Hub Still Reeling from Laura -- For six weeks, residents of the tiny bayou town of Cameron, Louisiana, have been plucking their wind-tossed belongings from swamps, ripping out soggy dry wall and attempting to piece their lives back together after being bowled over by Hurricane Laura. Now, with the waterfront town still in ruins, another storm is approaching. Hurricane Delta, which grew into a major Category 3 storm Thursday, is forecast to hit nearly the same spot as Laura. For Cameron, which sits 3 feet above sea level and has a population of 400, it would be a devastating one-two punch. “Debris is still everywhere,” said Tressie Smith, a Cameron native who lost her home and the seafood restaurant she owns in Laura. She’s evacuating to the Houston area to avoid Delta, forecast to make landfall Friday. Laura’s destruction has left the region -- a hub for the oil, petrochemical and liquefied natural gas industries -- fully exposed. Many people in Cameron and nearby Lake Charles work at refineries or on shrimping boats or offshore platforms. If the forecasts are right, they’ll soon be facing the rare and unfortunate fate of fending off one hurricane while still recovering from another. As of late Friday, Delta wasn’t forecast to be as strong as Laura, but even a weak storm can do more damage than usual when hitting so soon after another. A warmer-than-normal Atlantic and decreased wind shear have combined to spawn 25 named storms this year, the second most after 2005 when deadly Hurricane Katrina inundated New Orleans. Delta will be the record 10th tropical storm or hurricane to hit the U.S. in a year. “Lake Charles is still very much on its knees,” said Jim Serra, a long-time resident. Entergy Corp., which owns the local utility, didn’t fully restore power to the region until Oct. 1. On Wednesday, workers in Lake Charles were picking up debris and downed trees that have lined the streets since Laura so that they don’t become projectiles during Delta. Thousands of residents are living in temporary housing, including trailers and tents, after their homes were destroyed in Laura. Others are living in homes with tarps covering massive holes in their roofs.
92 Percent of US GOM Oil Production Shut-In - The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimates that approximately 91.53 percent of the oil production and around 61.82 percent of the gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in in response to Hurricane Delta. Production percentages are calculated using information submitted by offshore operators in daily reports, the BSEE notes. Shut-in production information included in these reports is based on the amount of oil and gas the operator expected to produce that day, according to the BSEE, which said the shut-in production figures are estimates that it compares to historical production reports to ensure the estimates follow a logical pattern. Personnel have been evacuated from a total of 272 production platforms in the U.S. GOM, the BSEE highlighted, adding that this figure is equivalent to 42.3 percent of the 643 manned platforms in the region. Personnel have also been evacuated from seven non-dynamically positioned rigs, which is equivalent to 70 percent of the ten rigs of this type currently operating in the area. A total of 15 dynamically positioned rigs have moved off the location of the hurricane’s projected path as a precaution. This number represents 88.24 percent of the 17 dynamically positioned rigs currently operating in the region. “After the hurricane has passed, facilities will be inspected,” the BSEE said in a statement posted on its website. “Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back online,” the BSEE added. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has described Hurricane Delta as “major”. The hurricane is currently heading towards southwestern Louisiana and it expected to bring hurricane conditions and a life-threatening storm surge to portions of the northern gulf coast later today, according to the NHC.
Old wellsite spraying oil and natural gas after hit by logging equipment - Emergency responders were busy in far northwest Jasper County on Tuesday afternoon after logging equipment accidentally hit an old wellsite. It happened during the noon hour at the George W. Brown #2 well, located off of County Road 32 about a mile north of Recreational Road 255 in the Ebenezer Community. The Angelina River and Rayburn Fire Departments along with Jasper County deputies responded when it was reported that the well was spraying a blue-tinted mist into the air. A representative from the Texas Railroad Commission arrived at the scene and walked about 100 yards off the road to the well, where he said he determined that the well was spewing a combination of oil and natural gas. Although the gas had no smell, the odor of the crude oil was very obvious. Fortunately, a stiff northerly breeze on Tuesday was quickly blowing away the escaping natural gas. Jasper County Sheriff's Department Chief Deputy Scotty Duncan was at the scene along with Lieutenant John Cooper and Deputy Chris Sherer. Duncan said they would remain on site until a work crew could arrive and repair the damage and stop the leak.
Texas oil well spewed pollution for 10 months, group says - An oil well site in the Permian Basin owned by a bankrupt shale producer has spewed polluting gases into the atmosphere for 10 months, despite being investigated by Texas regulators, according to an environmental group. Infrared video footage collected during multiple visits from November 2019 through September show "intense and significant" emissions from MDC Energy LLC's Pick Pocket location in West Texas, Earthworks said in a letter to two state regulatory agencies on Thursday. The group called on the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and the Texas Railroad Commission to rescind permits for MDC. "TCEQ and RRC must properly address these intense emissions including, but not limited to, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), methane, and hydrogen sulfide," Sharon Wilson, Earthworks' thermographer, wrote in the letter. TCEQ said in a statement that it would look into the issues raised in Wilson's letter. An enforcement case for complaints raised about MDC's operations "is currently under development and will include the assessment of an administrative penalty and corrective actions, as needed," the agency said. The RRC didn't immediately have comment. As the list of U.S. oil companies collapsing into bankruptcy grows, concerns are mounting about what happens to their wells if they're unable to pay to maintain or properly plug them. Millions of wells have been left abandoned across the country, many of which have been found to leak methane. That's drawn particular scrutiny because methane is a greenhouse gas that retains far more heat in the atmosphere upon its release than carbon dioxide. Texas has taken a friendly stance toward the shale industry. But, more recently, some of the industry's biggest investors, and even some oil producers, have called for stricter regulations. Another major environmental concern is the widespread industry practice of flaring in which producers burn off excess natural gas. Recent surveys by the Environmental Defense Fund found flares in the Permian are frequently unlit or malfunctioning, meaning methane is being released directly into the air.
Oil Pipeline Operators Offer New Discounts as Demand Craters - U.S. oil pipeline operators are slashing fees to encourage customers in Texas to keep using their networks to ship barrels to the Gulf Coast as the pandemic wreaks havoc on profits.Kinder Morgan Inc. is offering discounts of about 50% on the Eagle Ford pipeline for some existing customers, according to people familiar with the matter. Magellan Midstream Partners LP is negotiating lower tariffs on the Permian’s BridgeTex system for certain users whose contracts are up for renewal at the end of 2020, they said. Energy Transfer LP plans a volume incentive program for those who qualify on its Permian Express 2 and 3 pipelines.The discounts reflect efforts by pipeline companies to combat sluggish oil consumption and a drilling slowdown in prolific regions such as the Permian Basin after they expanded capacity in recent years. Last month, Enterprise Products Partners LP shelved plans for a major crude pipeline which would have added 450,000 barrels a day of capacity to a system that carries oil from the Permian to the Gulf Coast.Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer declined to comment. Magellan is always working with customers to meet their needs in any market environment, Bruce Heine, a company spokesman, said by email.The industry responded with similar discounts during previous slowdowns such as the 2014-2015 downturn, said Jon Sudduth, senior North American crude analyst at Energy Aspects in Houston. At that time, U.S. crude prices crashed after Saudi Arabia flooded the market in an attempt to kill off what the Kingdom saw as rising competition from booming North American shale fields.The lack of demand for pipeline capacity has reduced the premium for oil delivered to export hubs on the Gulf Coast to under $1 a barrel from around $3 a barrel at the start of the year. That’s not enough to cover transport costs for most Permian pipelines.While shippers regard tariffs as sunken costs, there are other variable charges, said Sudduth. “If the spread between Permian oil prices and those on the Gulf doesn’t cover the variable costs, it would mean losing not just on the cost of tariff, but those variable charges as well,” he said.
Simplifying the debate about routine flaring - There is broad and growing agreement that the practice of routinely flaring natural gas in Texas must quickly come to an end. The reason for this is obvious. Setting fire to natural gas produced at oil wells is a significant waste of resources and releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and other harmful pollution into the atmosphere.That’s why EDF and other environmental groups, investors, elected officials, communities and even some oil and gas companies are calling on the Texas Railroad Commission to end the practice as soon as possible. Sometimes discussions about routine flaring get bogged down in details, loopholes and special circumstances. But at its core, routine flaring and the need to end it are pretty simple.Routine flaring occurs when an operator is producing oil (or gas condensates) from a well without a use or destination for the associated natural gas that is produced.Because the oil and, sometimes, gas condensate, are more valuable, the operators may only want to capture those valuable products. Natural gas is less valuable, so many companies don’t want to capture it or don’t have an immediate plan to capture it. The simplest and cheapest solution is burning it. Routine flaring is, essentially, convenience flaring, and it has occurred across Texas during the shale boom. We don’t think flaring should be considered a free waste disposal solution. Before getting a drilling permit from RRC, operators should be required to submit a plan for how the natural gas they produce will be put to beneficial use and demonstrate that the plan will be in place before drilling begins. And for existing wells, the RRC should require a plan that expeditiously phases out routine flaring, ultimately resulting in the capture of the gas or a shutting in of the well.
Company wants to take Minnesota county's frac sand ban to U.S. Supreme Court - A mining company plans to take its fight to overturn the Winona County ban on frac sand mining to the U.S. Supreme Court, a company spokesman said Tuesday. Minnesota Sands, which lost its case before the Minnesota Supreme Court in March, said the ban violates the U.S. Constitution. “We are hopeful the Court will decide to hear this case and overturn what we continue to believe is an ordinance that clearly interferes with interstate commerce and violates the Constitution’s Commerce Clause,” company president Rick Frick said in a statement. The southeast Minnesota county passed the ban in 2016 — the first in the state — after mining of the rich silica sand deposits there had begun. Frick sued the county in 2017. A district court upheld the ban, as did the Appeals Court in a 2-1 decision in 2018. In March, the seven-member state Supreme Court affirmed lower court rulings that let the ban stand, with two justices dissenting in full and one dissenting in part. The ban allows mining for construction sand, a cheaper and less-pure material used on roadways and for other commercial uses. Silica sand is 95% quartz and consists of round, extremely hard granules that prop open cracks in shale rock, allowing the extraction of oil, gas and natural gas liquids.
EPA gives Oklahoma authority over many tribal environmental issues The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is turning its oversight of a number of environmental issues on tribal lands over to the state of Oklahoma. Oklahoma requested the authority in July using a little-known provision of a 2005 law carved out especially for the state. In a seven-page letter to Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler lists a number of Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and Safe Drinking Water Act authorities that will now be overseen by Oklahoma. The move will give the state more oversight over environmental issues for Oklahoma’s 38 federally recognized tribes, something the Cherokee Nation called a “knee-jerk reaction to curtail tribal jurisdiction [that] is not productive.” Stitt’s request is the first use of the Oklahoma-only provision in a 2005 transportation bill sponsored by Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) that allows Oklahoma to oversee environmental issues “in the areas of the state that are in Indian country, without any further demonstration of authority by the state.” “EPA’s letter grants Oklahoma’s request to administer the State’s EPA-approved environmental regulatory programs in certain areas of Indian country. EPA’s letter resolves ambiguity and essentially preserves the regulatory status quo in Oklahoma,” EPA spokesman James Hewitt said in a statement, adding that existing exemptions would still stand and that the agency would implement federal environmental programs. “Additionally, if any tribe wants to apply for regulatory oversight of these environmental programs, then they can apply through EPA’s Treatment as a State process,” he added. The Oct. 1 letter was first reported by The Young Turks, a left-wing news outlet, on Monday. The move raised alarm with those who see the potential for a loss of tribal sovereignty as well as for the state to greenlight polluting projects on tribal lands over objections from Natives. “It’s disappointing the Cherokee Nation’s request that EPA consult individually with affected Oklahoma tribes was ignored,” Cherokee Nation Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. said in a statement to The Hill. “Unfortunately, the governor’s decision to invoke a 2005 federal law ignores the longstanding relationships between state agencies and the Cherokee Nation. All Oklahomans benefit when the Tribes and state work together in the spirit of mutual respect and this knee-jerk reaction to curtail tribal jurisdiction is not productive,” he added.
Court strikes down Obama-era rule targeting methane leaks from public lands drilling -A federal court on Thursday struck down an Obama-era regulation targeting methane leaks from drilling on public lands, arguing that it went beyond the scope of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which promulgated the rule. The 2016 rule required oil and gas companies to cut a practice called flaring, in which natural gas is burned, by half, inspect their sites for leaks and replace old equipment that released too much methane. The court argued that although the rule’s stated purpose was to reduce waste, it was essentially used to regulate air quality, which is not the job of the BLM. “Although the stated purpose of the Rule is waste prevention, significant aspects of the Rule evidence its primary purpose being driven by an effort to regulate air emissions, particularly greenhouse gases,” wrote judge Scott Skavdahl, an Obama appointee. Skavdahl particularly noted that the rule’s cost-benefit analysis only showed the rule to be beneficial “if the ancillary benefits to global climate change are factored in." “Without these ‘indirect’ benefits, the costs of the Rule likely more than double the benefits every year,” he wrote. The Trump administration had issued a rollback of the Obama-era rule, but that too was recently struck down in court. The Obama administration billed its rule as an update to “30-year old regulations governing venting, flaring, and leaks of natural gas," saying it "will help curb waste of public resources, [and] reduce harmful methane emissions.” Since both of the recent rules were struck down, those decades-old rules appear to now govern methane leaks. The Interior Department celebrated the ruling, signaling that it’s unlikely to appeal the decision. Interior spokesperson Nicholas Goodwin, in a statement, called the 2016 rule “illegal, another job-crushing regulation targeted at small businesses and more government overreach.” “Today’s decision is a win for the American people, the rule of law and our country’s economic future,” he added. Methane is a major greenhouse gas, significantly more potent than carbon dioxide, and it’s also the primary component of natural gas. The Obama administration projected that its rule would cut methane emissions from public lands by 35 percent. The new ruling came as a result of a lawsuit filed by the Independent Petroleum Association of America and Western Energy Alliance, two oil and gas groups.
INTERIOR: Trump admin: Pendley took 'no relevant acts' as BLM chief -- Tuesday, October 6, 2020 -- The fallout from a federal judge's ruling last month that William Perry Pendley illegally performed the duties of Bureau of Land Management director for more than a year has taken another notable turn.The Trump administration, in a supplemental brief it filed late yesterday with the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana, argues Pendley performed "no relevant acts" while "exercising the authority of director" that should now be thrown out as a result of the judge's order.That argument differs from the Interior Department's vigorous defense over the past year of Pendley and his authority to perform the duties of BLM acting director.The filing offers valuable insight into how Interior plans to challenge last month's ruling by Chief Judge Brian Morris that Pendley's 424-day tenure leading BLM violated federal laws (Greenwire, Sept. 25). Interior has vowed to fight the ruling with the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.As part of Morris' order, which was sparked by a lawsuit from Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), the judge directed the state and the Interior Department to file briefs addressing specific actions that Pendley may have taken that could be tossed out as a result of the ruling. Interior's brief suggests it plans to follow the same legal argument — already rejected by Morris in his order — that Pendley took no actions that could have inflicted a "particular injury" to Bullock or the state. Thus, Montana and its governor had no legal standing to file the lawsuit in the first place. In its own supplemental brief, also filed late yesterday, Montana asked Morris to throw out three amended land use plans that it argues are invalid. The request targeting only three Montana-specific BLM actions under Pendley is significant, as legal experts, congressional Democrats and environmental advocacy groups have asserted that all BLM actions since July 2019 — when Interior Secretary David Bernhardt added "exercising the authority of director" to Pendley's title — should be ruled invalid.
Pendley says court decision ousting him from BLM has had 'no impact' - One of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) highest ranking officials said his ouster ordered by a federal judge last month “has no impact, no impact whatsoever” on his role within the department. A Montana-based U.S. District Court judge ruled last month that William Perry Pendley "served unlawfully ... for 424 days," giving the Department of the Interior 10 days to justify why it shouldn’t throw out many of the decisions Pendley has made during his tenure. In an interview with the Powell (Wyo.) Tribune, Pendley said the court ruling has changed little for him as he stays at the department by virtue of his official title as one of the department’s two deputy directors. “I’m still here, I’m still running the bureau,” Pendley told the outlet. “I have always been, from day one.” Pendley, who had served as the de-facto head of BLM for over a year, was only nominated to the position this summer, but the nomination was withdrawn shortly thereafter. Pendley has a long history of opposing federal ownership of public lands, and the entire Democratic caucus planned to oppose him — putting the spotlight on vulnerable Republicans up for reelection. Last month several Democrats took to the House floor, demanding he be removed from the department due to views they see as being in conflict with the BLM mission along while expressing concern over comments Pendley has made about the Black Lives Matter movement and Native Americans.
Interior secretary discusses Chaco drilling, outdoor recreation plans — U.S. Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt said he will not be delaying a land-use plan that opponents say will lead to thousands of new oil and gas wells being drilled in the Greater Chaco region. The comment period ended on Sept. 25 after Bernhardt extended it from its original May deadline. Opponents say the conditions with the COVID-19 pandemic that led Bernhardt to extending the comment period once before have not changed and that the plan should be placed on hold until there can be in-person meetings once again But during his visit to Farmington on Oct. 5, Bernhardt said the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Indian Affairs will go forward with the Farmington Field Office Mancos-Gallup Resource Management Plan Amendment. Bernhardt said the resource management plan amendment has been in the works since 2014. “We need to move forward and get this plan done,” he said. He said staff members will be reviewing the comments received and weighing the various alternatives outlined in the draft environmental impact statement. Generally, Bernhardt said the end decision for such plans is not identical to the proposed preferred alternative in the draft documents. Various entities, including the Navajo Nation, have asked to have the plan placed on hold until after the pandemic conditions have passed. In a comment submitted during the comment period, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham echoed those requests to delay adoption of the resource management plan amendment. She requested that an ethnographic study be completed before the plan is finalized. Congress has allocated $1 million for such an ethnographic study, which has not been completed. Bernhardt said while the study will be useful and important, there are laws in place like the National Historic Preservation Act that protect cultural sites.
House Of Pain - Once Again, Bakken Crude Oil Producers Were Hit Especially Hard By Sagging Prices --Tough times in the crude oil sector generally affect all participants to some degree, but the impacts can vary widely by production basin. We saw that back in 2014-16, when the crash in oil prices battered the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Niobrara but left the Permian unscathed — production there actually kept rising. Fast-forward to 2020, with its COVID-induced demand destruction, anemic prices, and uncertain-at-best recovery, and again the Bakken really took it on the chin. Production in the basin plummeted by 28% in one month — from April to May — and while Bakken output rebounded this summer, the rig count has been hovering at its lowest level in memory and another, albeit slower production decline may be imminent. Today, we discuss the challenges facing exploration and production companies in western North Dakota.
US oil, gas rig count slips 3 on week to 323, ending two weeks of sizable gains: Enverus — The US oil and gas rig count slipped by three to 323 on the week, rig data provider Enverus said Oct. 8, ending two consecutive weeks of sizable gains as activity slowed early in the final quarter of the year. The small weekly decline broke a five-week tranche of rig additions that had boosted the domestic fleet more than 15% and accounted for the bulk of increases since the July trough of 279. For the week ended Sept. 30, the rig count jumped 18, on top of 15 the previous week. The most recent week's decline, and then some, came from rigs chasing oil. These fell by six to 228, while gas-weighted rigs were up three to 95, Enverus said. "We don't expect significant rig growth every week," analyst Matt Andre, of S&P Global Platts Analytics, said. "Prices are still modest and don't really call for operators to add double-digit rigs every week." Over the long term, US rig fleet increases "will most likely be slow and steady, compared to how fast [they retreated] in Q2," Andre said. Domestic basins in the past week represented a checkerboard of mostly stable activity with rig movements mostly in gassy basins. The Haynesville Shale in Northwest Louisiana/East Texas rose two rigs to 38, while the Marcellus Shale largely sited in Pennsylvania fell two, leaving 25. The Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas rose one to 18 on the week, while the DJ Basin in Colorado fell by one to four. The Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico was stable at 139, as were the SCOOP/STACK play in Oklahoma, Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana, and Utica Shale mostly in Ohio, respectively at 12, 11 and seven rigs. Starting in early March 2020, the domestic rig count, along with oil prices, began to plummet as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated. The US rig count, which stood at 838 the first week of March, fell more than 65% over the next four months before ticking back up. For the week ended Oct. 7, WTI averaged $39.13/b, down 94 cents, while WTI Midland averaged $39.17/b, down $1.05 and Bakken Composite, $35.91/b, down 93 cents. Natural gas prices for that same period averaged $1.73/MMBtu at Henry Hub, down 7 cents, and 93 cents/MMBtu at Dominion South, down 22 cents.
Producers Pay Dearly for Aviation Hedge Collapse-- The cost for oil producers to lock in the price at which they sell their crude has soared because of the collapse in the aviation industry. It emerged this week that Mexico may be trying to organize its annual oil-price hedge, the biggest sovereign program of its kind in the world. As well as Mexico, producers everywhere from Oklahoma to the North Sea will try to guarantee the future price for their barrels, often through options trades that pay out if the oil market collapses. However, their efforts have been rendered far costlier in the past few months because airlines are not making the opposite side of the trade by insuring themselves against high prices. With international flights still way down on where they were before Covid-19 struck, the airlines have all but abandoned the options market, meaning the cost of the contracts for oil producers has spiraled. “It’s becoming extremely difficult for big producers to hedge without the large airline flows around,” said Thibaut Remoundos, founder of Commodities Trading Corp. in London, which advises oil producers on their hedging strategies. “Some don’t have a choice and have to spend premium to buy puts, which are expensive.” In normal times, producers like Mexico will buy bearish put options, whose volatility would normally be a fraction higher than an equivalent bullish call option. When air travel ground to a halt in the depths of the virus outbreak, that relationship -- known as the skew -- exploded. In other words, puts to insure against a price crash soared relative to comparable calls. The relationship shows no sign of returning to normal. In the esoteric world of the oil options market, consumers, notably airlines, tend to manage their fuel bills by purchasing call options to cap what is normally their single biggest cost. They will also sell puts to cheapen that transaction. But with air travel so restrained, far fewer are selling the put options that producers want to buy, ramping up the cost of producer deals. The premium for puts showed up clearly on Thursday. A set of contracts for 2021 that would lock in $40 a barrel for a producer traded at a cost of $4.10 a barrel. On average last year, when oil was higher and volatility was lower an equivalent option would have been between $1.25 and $1.50 cheaper, Remoundos said. While the issue is one that affects all oil producers, the Mexican hedge -- if it’s happening as many traders suspect -- would be the starkest example. In previous years, the country paid $1 billion to lock in the value of its crude sales.
Chevron overtakes Exxon Mobil as America's largest oil company - Chevron Corp. overtook Exxon Mobil Corp. as the largest oil company in America by market value, the first time the Texas-based giant has been dethroned since it began as Standard Oil more than a century ago. California-based Chevron had a market capitalization of $142 billion at the close of U.S. trading on Wednesday, compared with Exxon’s $141.6 billion. The entire oil and gas sector is suffering from the plunge in energy prices this year caused by Covid-19. But Chevron has emerged with the strongest balance sheet among its Big Oil peers -- it was able to complete its $5 billion acquisition of Noble Energy Inc. last week. Exxon, by contrast, is struggling to generate enough cash to pay for capital expenditures, leaving it reliant on debt and putting pressure on its $15 billion-a-year dividend. Chevron had been closing in on its long-time rival for more than a year, even before the pandemic crushed oil demand. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth has focused on Chevron’s shale operations, cutting costs and keeping a tight rein on new projects. Exxon pursued a series of expensive projects that promised growth after years of stagnating production, but which became a drag on its cash flow when the pandemic hit. The American giants’ biggest European rivals, BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, face problems of their own -- their shares slumped after cutting their prized dividends earlier this year. Some analysts believe Exxon may be next in line to cut its payout. The U.S. company will be unable to fund its dividend without drawing down cash or selling assets before 2025, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note Tuesday.
Banks’ Arctic Financing Retreat Rattles Oil Industry – WSJ - Defenders of the oil-and-gas industry in Washington are fighting back against big banks who want to stop financing new Arctic-drilling projects, fearing it could be a harbinger of an unbankable future for fossil-fuel companies. Five of the six largest U.S. banks— Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo —have pledged over the past year to end funding for new drilling and exploration projects in the Arctic. Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan and a group of fellow Republican lawmakers, mostly from energy-producing states, have been lobbying the Trump administration to examine whether the federal government can prevent the banks from cutting off financing, or punish them for doing so. Mr. Sullivan said banks are unfairly discriminating against oil-and-gas producers in Alaska, and that lenders ought to examine loans on a client-by-client basis instead of denying financing to an entire category of customers. “That these banks would discriminate against one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy is absurd,” Mr. Sullivan said in an interview. “I thought it was important to push back.” The American Petroleum Institute, one of industry’s most influential lobbying groups, has said it is working with the Trump administration on the issue, which it called a “bad precedent.” API, Mr. Sullivan and others have also suggested the White House should examine whether it could cut off the banks’ access to funding under coronavirus relief packages. Representatives of the banks declined to comment. White House spokesman Judd Deere said Mr. Trump “has strong concerns if roadblocks are being thrown up to specifically harm the oil-and-gas industry.”
Trump administration faulted over breaks for oil companies (AP) — A U.S. government watchdog agency faulted the Trump administration Tuesday for its handling of a COVID-19 relief effort that awarded energy companies breaks on payments for oil and gas extracted from public lands in more than 500 cases. The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan arm of Congress, said haphazard rules for the program left the administration unable to say how much relief was given or if it would ultimately benefit taxpayers, as was intended. The Bureau of Land Management gave breaks on royalty payments from companies in at least five Western states because of workforce problems or other issues after the pandemic shut down much of the economy and helped drive a collapse in oil prices. The Trump administration also gave breaks to companies that extract oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but it has released scant details of that effort. Offering royalty relief to companies had been done before the pandemic and is intended to boost the profitability of oil and gas wells so they can still be profitable. The idea is to protect against companies being forced to shut down uneconomical wells permanently, meaning they would never again generate government revenue. But it’s unknown if that’s what happened after the Trump administration approved at least 581 relief requests during its scrambled early response to the pandemic. Most of the approvals were in Wyoming, with cases also approved in Utah, Colorado and by a bureau office that covers Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. GAO natural resources branch director Frank Rusco described the program as “poorly designed and executed” during testimony on the report Tuesday before the House Natural Resources Committee. The bureau did not know if the relief granted achieved the intended goal of conserving oil and gas for future recovery, nor it the government was getting a fair return for letting companies use public resources, Rusco said.
Trump administration dinged by government watchdog for pandemic relief for oil companies - The Washington Post - The Trump administration mismanaged its efforts to provide relief to oil and gas producers during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, failing to ensure aid went to those that needed it, according to a new congressional report.The U.S. Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan watchdog office of Congress, said the government flouted its own goals when giving struggling producers a break this spring on payments to the government for oil and gas pumped from federal lands. That royalty relief was supposed to go to wells that would have otherwise shut down because of the sharp decline in oil prices. The idea was to make sure that normally profitable wells were not plugged permanently because of the health crisis. But the GAO, in a report released Tuesday, said the Trump administration failed to properly take the economic viability of wells into account when deciding which wells got relief — and probably ended up offering aid to oil producers that did not need it, shortchanging taxpayers in the process. “This is exactly the time the government should be spending money,” said Frank Rusco, the watchdog agency's director of natural resources and environment. “But we're about good government. And if you do it, do it in a smart way.”When oil prices plummeted this spring, the Trump administration offered a 60-day reprieve on royalty payments in more than 500 cases in Western states. The Bureau of Land Management, which oversees drilling on federally controlled lands, reduced rates from the agency's usual minimum of 12.5 percent to an average of less than 1 percent between March 24 and June 11.
Why is the Biden-Harris campaign fine with fracking? - - For 90 minutes on Oct. 7, the US vice-presidential contenders sparred on stage about whether Democratic candidate Joe Biden would “ban fracking,” a charge lobbed as political dynamite across the aisle. Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice presidential nominee, refused it in no uncertain terms. “The American people know that Joe Biden will not ban fracking,” said Harris. “That is a fact. That is a fact.” The political debate over what the US should do about fracking, the oil extraction technique that has transformed the country into an oil exporter, is explosive. The Biden climate plan has been called themost ambitious ever for a major party’s campaign. Yet every time the Biden-Harris ticket has the opportunity to come out fully against fracking, they have refused. The reason why is simple. Biden’s campaign isn’t calling for a ban because it tempts political suicide in swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio where fossil fuels still rule. And the political risk isn’t even necessary: Government leaders may not have to ban fracking, because the economics will likely do it for them. Fracking has created a petroleum boom, opening up fields from North Dakota to Texas. More than half a million jobs in key states including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado have been created by the industry (if even many of those are gone amid the pandemic). Yet it’s also unleashed a climate problem. By venting huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere, and generating vast amounts of contaminated groundwater (some of which may pose a health risk), oil fracking wells are seen as a major barrier to a stable climate, despite its role in displacing even dirtier coal. From 2016 to 2018, US oil and gas emissions rose 13%. For some on the left of the Democratic party, including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, a fracking ban is an essential step toward meeting the country’s climate commitments. Biden, like other moderates, prefers tighter regulation of its health and environmental risks. That resistance to an outright ban may come from the ghosts of campaigns past. In March of 2016, Hilary Clinton told an Ohio town hall that her policy to bring clean renewable energy and economic opportunity was “going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.” She came to regret those words (“the point I had wanted to make was the exact opposite of how it came out,” she wrote), but it was too late. The words were used to bludgeon Clinton’s election chances in must-win blue states in coal country.Clearly, Biden and Harris will not make the same mistake.
Two oil spills in east-central Alberta - The Alberta Energy Regulator says 150,000 litres of crude oil have leaked from a pipeline near Hardisty southeast of Edmonton. It says the spill has been contained and has not affected wildlife or water bodies. The regulator says Calgary-based AlphaBow Energy reported the breach on Wednesday. It says the cause of the spill will be investigated.
Cleanup is underway after a 126-barrel oil spill -- Energy Canada says it has been notified and will monitor the situation after the oil spill in southern Alberta on Friday. CER said the crude oil release occurred at a pumping station on the Enbridge Express pipeline, about 270 kilometers northeast of Calgary, near Youngstown. Initial reports show that 20,000 liters of oil (or about 126 barrels) were released on company property, and an estimated 75 liters (or half a barrel) spilled into a nearby farmer’s field. The agency said in a statement that there were no livestock at the time. The total volume of the spill is still under investigation. Cleaning is in progress. Inbridge said in a statement the line was initially closed but had resumed work Friday evening after it was deemed safe to do so. “There are no immediate safety concerns and we are cooperating fully with regulators in our response,” said Inbridge. No bodies of water or wildlife have been reported affected, and the Calgary-based company said all off-site oil has been recovered. The agency said it deployed an inspection officer to monitor the company’s response. CER said: “The top priority of CER standards is to protect people and the environment. Enbridge will be held accountable to ensure that the site is cleaned and that their response meets CER’s stringent safety and environment standards. The express pipeline, which went into operation in 1997, ships up to 280,000 barrels per day from Hardesty to Casper, Wyoming.
Pemex Issues $1.5-Bln Bond To Refinance Massive Debt Mexico’s state oil company Pemex has issued a $1.5-billion bond to raise funds necessary to refinance existing debt, Reuters reported, quoting a source in the know that remained unnamed.According to the report, this is the first time the Mexican giant has raised new debt after it lost its investment-grade rating from Moody’s. Fitch has a BBB- rating on Pemex, which is still in investment-grade.Regardless of credit ratings, however, Pemex has become the most indebted energy company in the world and that’s despite efforts by the Lopez Obrador to strengthen the company, including through tax relief and a reversal of liberalization measures taken by the previous government.Yet, according to the Reuters source, the new Pemex bond was substantially oversubscribed: the 6.875-percent coupon incentivized investors to bid a total $10 billion for the bond.In addition to its swollen debt pile, which has reached some $100 billion, Pemex has also been fighting a steady production decline that most recently forced it to revise down its output projections for 2021. Last month, the country’s finance ministry said it expected Pemex to produce 1.857 million bpd on average next year down from a previous forecast for 2.027 million bpd.The projected output for this year may also need to be revised down. The daily average is seen at 1.83 million bpd, but with natural depletion and lack of new exploration at sufficient levels, it may be difficult to achieve despite government support. It was actually the government that may have contributed to the decline: all contracts with foreign oil field operators have been put under review for possible evidence of corruption and no new tenders for exploration blocks have been planned for the duration of this review. Between January and July, Pemex produced an average of 1.692 million bpd of crude oil, much below its forecast for the year.
US deploys missile destroyer off coast of Venezuela - In an escalation of the US “maximum pressure” campaign against Venezuela, the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) has deployed a guided-missile destroyer, the USS William P. Lawrence, barely 15 nautical miles off the Caribbean coastline of the South American nation. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza issued a statement denouncing the deployment as an “erratic and infantile provocation” on the part of Washington, while ridiculing US claims that it is part of a US operation against drug trafficking. In addition to drug interdiction pretext, the Pentagon justified the deployment of the advanced warship as a “freedom of navigation” operation designed to challenge what it termed Venezuela’s “excessive maritime claims in international waters.” The provocative deployment of the US warship follows by barely two weeks joint exercises conducted by the US and Colombian militaries in a threatening show of force against Venezuela. The exercises were timed to coincide with a four-day Latin American tour by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who visited every country bordering Venezuela, promoting regime change in Caracas and railing against China’s influence in the region. The US naval provocations are particularly threatening under conditions in which Venezuela is receiving desperately needed gasoline supplies aboard tankers sent from Iran, which is also the target of a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign and continuous military provocations aimed at achieving regime change in Tehran. The Faxon, the third in a group of three Iranian tankers carrying fuel, is expected to arrive at a Venezuelan refinery port over the weekend. Together with two Iranian ships that have already reached the country, the Forest and Fortune, the total cargo amounts to 800,000 barrels of gasoline. While Venezuela has the largest known petroleum reserves, its production has fallen precipitously under the impact of US sanctions, falling global oil prices and a lack of investment and maintenance of the country’s state-owned energy firm, PDVSA. It is also dependent on the import of condensate, a natural gas needed to turn Venezuela’s crude oil into gasoline. Its two functioning refineries are producing just 55,000 barrels per day, roughly 50 percent of the country’s requirements, meaning that the Iranian imports will not go that far. Nonetheless, Washington is determined to cut off the gasoline imports. Last month, Washington claimed to have intercepted four ships carrying Iranian gasoline to Venezuela. None of the vessels were Iranian-flagged or owned, and the UAE, Oman and UK-based owners of the cargo shipped on Greek-owned tankers are suing the US government, insisting that the fuel was bound for Trinidad and destined for sale to Colombia and Peru.
An escalating labor strike could soon wipe out almost 25% of Norway’s oil and gas production — A strike by workers in the Norwegian oil sector could soon wipe out nearly one-quarter of the country's petroleum output, Norway's Oil and Gas Association warned on Thursday, with the intensifying dispute helping oil prices to build on recent gains. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $43.09 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up more than 2.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $41.01 a barrel, around 2.7% higher. The dispute between Lederne union and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association began when talks collapsed on Sept. 30, prompting production outages from Oct. 5. Lederne is pushing for the organization to match the pay and conditions at onshore remote-control rooms with those of offshore workers. The striking union told CNBC that this request would not impose an additional cost on companies. "Lederne fear that this is the start of a deterioration of our members' accumulated pay and working conditions, and therefore see no other option than to use the right to strike when negotiations and mediation do not succeed," the union said via email. At present, 169 Lederne members are on strike on four platforms: Johan Sverdrup, Gudrun, and Gina Krog (all operated by Norway's state-controlled energy giant Equinor), and Gjoa (operated by Neptune Energy). From midnight on Oct. 10, Lederne said an additional 93 members on the following platforms would also go on strike: Kristin, Oseberg Sor, Oseberg Ost (all operated by Equinor), and the Ekofisk Bravo/Kilo installation (run by U.S. producer ConocoPhillips). An oil drilling platform sits on board the world's largest construction vessel, the Pioneering Spirit, in the Bomla fjord near Leirvik, ahead of its transportation to the Johan Sverdrup oil field, Norway, on "The demands from Lederne suggest that we either expand the scope of the shelf agreement or establish a new agreement for the members they have onshore," a spokesperson for Norway's Oil and Gas Association told CNBC via email. "Both alternatives are far beyond the regulatory provisions of the collective agreement. Norwegian Oil and Gas cannot accept either an extension or a new agreement," they added. The association said the financial offer it had made had been accepted by the two largest unions, Industri Energi and Safe, which together represent 85% of the employees covered by the shelf agreements. Nonetheless, it said, "the demands from Lederne were otherwise significantly higher than what was agreed in the lead sector settlement." Six offshore oil and gas fields shut down on Monday as a result of the strike action, Norway's Oil and Gas Association said, cutting output by 8% or 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. "Strike is a lawful action," Norway's Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs told CNBC on Thursday in an emailed statement. "The responsibility for reaching a solution in this situation lies first and foremost with the social partners," the Ministry said, adding it would "monitor the situation in the same fashion as with any other labor conflict."
Indo-French satellites to trace illegal spillage of oil - The constellation of maritime surveillance satellites for the Indian Ocean Region, to be jointly launched by India and France, will be able to trace illegal spillage of oil by ships, a senior French space agency CENS official said on Sunday. In August last year, CNES and ISRO committed to developing and building a constellation of satellites carrying telecommunications and radar and optical remote-sensing instruments, constituting the first space-based system in the world capable of tracking ships continuously. The monitoring centre will be based in India, the official added. "With a revisit capability (of the satellites), this makes possible to task acquisitions several times a day. It will also be able to detect oil slicks and trace their origin," the official said. The main purpose of this is to trace illegal spillage of oil by ships. The Indian Ocean Region has several Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) and used by many ships every day. The satellites will be operated jointly by France and India to monitor ships in the Indian Ocean. The system will also cover a wide belt around the globe, benefiting a broad range of French economic interests, the official said. Parts of the satellites will be built in both the countries and launched from India, he added. CNES and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also operating a number of climate-monitoring satellites together. 'Trishna', a highly precise thermal infrared observer, will also be part of the fleet of Indo-French satellites. After a successful design phase led by a joint team of ISRO-CNES, the satellite is now set to enter its development phases in the coming months, the official said. France and India are also collaborating on the Gaganyaan, India's first manned space mission. France will also be part of ISRO's mission to Venus, the official added.
Blaze-hit oil tanker on way to UAE for repairs - The Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) will have to wait longer to get its consignment of three lakh metric tonnes of crude oil from the blaze-hit Panamanian oil tanker MT New Diamond as the vessel is being towed to Fujairah port in the United Arab Emirates for repairs. The Indian Coast Guard said the vessel, chartered by the IOCL, is being towed with the help of salvors under its watchful eyes as a precautionary measure to prevent any untoward incident, particularly the spill of oil. A fire had erupted in the tanker following a major explosion in its engine room on September 3. The 20-year-old vessel was carrying Kuwaiti crude oil from Mina al Ahmadi to Paradip in Odisha.An Indian Coast Guard spokesman told Express that its pollution control vessels Samudra Pavak and Samudra Praheri with integral helicopter and ICGS Shaunak with pollution-response gears will be escorting the MT New Diamond. “ICG ships will provide preventive pollution response cover in case of any oil leakage contingency during the passage of the vessel to Fujairah,” the spokesman said. It is learnt that the coast guard is taking precaution so that Indian shores are safe in case of any oil spill. The vessel is being taken to Fujairah, a deep-water port, as its liquid cargo can’t be pumped out in the open sea. The decision taken by the ship owners and salvors, said coast guard sources. This comes after Union ministers Dharmendra Pradhan and S Jaishankar last month reviewed the condition of the vessel and discussed ways to expedite arrangements for the discharge of crude from the vessel. The IOCL has its biggest refinery with 3,00,000 barrels per day capacity at Paradip. With a combined refining capacity of almost 5 million barrels per day, India is the world’s fourth largest refining centre after the US, China and Russia.
The Mauritius Oil Spill Cannot Be Cleaned Up, but Damages Must Be Paid - On the 25th of July the Japanese bulk carrier MV Wakashio — chartered by Mitsui OSK and owned by Nagashiki Shipping — struck a beautiful and irreplaceable coral reef on Mauritius' southeast coast. The ship was sailing dangerously close to the reef, and ran aground. Twelve days later, the ship began leaking heavy fuel oil, devastating one of the most beautiful places in the world and ruining the livelihoods of coastal communities. Over the past five weeks in Mauritius, we have witnessed long stretches of ocean, unique mangroves and pristine lagoons become quickly coated with oil. We have watched the people of Mauritius rushing to the beach, risking themselves as they attempt to remove the oil from every rock and grain of sand, desperately trying to recapture their homeland's beauty submerged by toxic waves, being brought relentlessly by the tide to the shore. Thousands of species around the pristine lagoons of Blue Bay, Pointe d'Esny and Mahebourg are at risk of suffocating or drowning in a sea of pollution, with dire consequences for Mauritius' tourism, and people's food security and health. Furthermore, some of the most toxic components of the oil spill can build up as hidden contaminants in marine organisms, through which they can enter into the food-chain. Oil residues accumulate in sediments, especially on shores. The impacts of this oil spill — like any other oil spill — will be felt years after the surface oil has been removed. The people of Mauritius are going to have to live with this devastating reality for decades. There is no question that Mitsui OSK and Nagashiki Shipping are jointly the cause of the devastating pollution in Mauritian waters. After the first 12 days of their silence, Mitsui OSK and Nagashiki Shipping apologized for this disaster. For that apology to mean anything, it must be backed up with action. This would require fully applying the "polluter pays" principle, which means the companies pay for all current and future damages. While steps by the Japanese government to help the government of Mauritius cope with the toxic impacts of the oil spill are welcome, Japanese taxpayers should not be liable for the actions of the Japanese companies, which were reckless enough to allow one of its largest vessels to travel so close to coral reefs and run aground. Ultimately, those who are responsible for the pollution must pay for the damage that their pollution has caused. Mitsui OSK and Nagashiki Shipping seem to be avoiding their responsibilities. The "polluter pays" principle would require funding, among other things, a fully public independent investigation into the causes and consequences of the oil spill, and a commitment to stop using this shipping route.This needs to account for the livelihoods of those dependent on fishing and tourism, the coral reefs, mangroves, wetlands and the entire, vulnerable ecosystem.
UN warns of decaying tanker that threatens oil spill and port closure - A decaying oil tanker carrying 1.1 million barrels of oil off Yemen risks causing a major oil spill, the closure of a key port and disruption to a busy trade route, if immediate action is not taken. The United Nations (UN) has called for inspections and repairs of the tanker, which previously served as a floating export terminal. The FSO Safer is located near the port of Hodeidah, a key entry point for humanitarian aid in Yemen, a country embroiled in a six-year civil war between the Iran-backed Houthi group and a Saudi Arabia-backed coalition supporting government forces. Built in 1974, the ship has served as a floating export terminal and storage unit since arriving in Yemen in the late 1980s. In 2015, when the conflict in Yemen intensified and Houthi rebels took control of the nearby coastline, it was abandoned by its owner, a state-run oil company. For the past five years, the ship has been slowly corroding. Time may have already run out to avoid environmental disaster. In late September, the Saudi ambassador to the UN, Abdallah Al-Mouallimi, wrote in a letter to the global organisation that an “oil spot” had been seen 50km west of the vessel, reports Reuters. Al-Mouallimi reportedly wrote that the tanker “has reached a critical state of degradation, and that the situation is a serious threat to all Red Sea countries, particularly Yemen and Saudi Arabia”, adding “this dangerous situation must not be left unaddressed”. The UN has been waiting for authorisation from the Houthi group to send experts to the Safer tanker to conduct a technical assessment and make any initial possible repairs. The Houthi group has rejected requests to inspect the tanker, raising concerns that the rebels may use it as leverage in negotiations. In an August statement, UN secretary general António Guterres said that a potential oil slick in the Red Sea would not only “severely harm Red Sea ecosystems relied on by 30 million people across the region”, but would also force the nearby port to close for months and “cut off millions of people from access to food and other essential commodities”. The scale of any leak from the tanker could prove disastrous. The UN has warned that a spill from the vessel could be four times worse than the 38,500-tonne Exxon Valdez spill off Alaska in 1989.
Oil spill detected next to FSO Safer United Nations inspectors were once again barred from boarding the decaying floating storage tanker Safer yesterday by Houthi militia as images emerge of a leak around the 44-year-old ship moored in the waters of war-torn Yemen. The FSO Safer, stranded for the past five years to the north of Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah, contains 157,000 tonnes of light crude oil, four times as much as the amount of oil that gushed into the sea off Alaska from the Exxon Valdez tanker 31 years ago. In May, seawater leaked into the abandoned FSO’s engine room, which was eventually patched by a team of divers. Research by TankerTrackers using satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows that an oil spill occurred a fortnight ago from the ageing ship. “From what we’ve been able to gather, the spill went pretty far and wide in the immediate area, but is no longer spilling,” TankerTrackers tweeted on October 3, adding: “The vessel is still floating in place, but time is quickly running out for this ship.” Saudi Arabia’s UN Ambassador Abdallah Al-Mouallimi warned last month that experts had discovered 50 km west of the Safer that a pipeline attached to the vessel had likely separated from the stabilizers holding it to the bottom and it was now floating on the surface of the sea. The 1976-built ship was owned by the Yemeni government but was seized by the Houthis in 2015. It has been stationed in Yemeni waters for the past 33 years. Writing for Splash last month, Carlos Luxul, the author of The Ocean Dove, noted of the FSO: “Years of neglect have taken their toll. There are no reliable estimates of the present thickness of the Safer’s hull, but it is not unreasonable to assume that it is down to its last few millimetres in certain places, masked by the presence of a generous coating of marine encrustation.”
Turkey Set to Revise Black Sea Discovery Estimate-- Turkey expects to raise its estimate for the amount of natural gas discovered in the Black Sea and plans to announce the new guidance as early as next week, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. The government will outline a sizable revision to the initial discovery of 320 billion cubic meters of recoverable gas, unveiled in August, once exploratory drilling is completed this month, the people said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the find. The energy discovery in the Black Sea is critical for Turkey’s current-account balance which is dragged down by the need to import nearly all of the 50 billion cubic meters of gas the country consumes annually. Drilling to a depth of around 4,500 meters (15,000 feet) at the Tuna-1 discovery would penetrate two additional formations that appear promising, a senior Turkish energy official said last month. A second drill ship is likely to be moved to the region next year. Ankara has dramatically expanded energy exploration in the Black Sea and contested waters of the eastern Mediterranean. It’s keen to find sizable energy reserves to ease its heavy reliance on imports from Iran, Iraq and Russia, and support one of the biggest economies in the Middle East. Shares of Turkish oil refiner Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS, or Tupras, gained as much as 2% following the news, while petrochemical company Petkim Petrokimya Holding AS climbed as much as 4.5%. They were trading 1.7% higher and 3.8% higher as of 4:05 p.m., respectively. Shares of energy companies Aksa Enerji Uretim AS and Aygaz each rose 2.3%. But the searches have mired the government in territorial disputes with Greece and Cyprus in the Mediterranean.
How a Biden presidency may lead to increased supply in the oil market— A Biden presidency could bring 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil back into the market, but lead to lower demand in the long run, an economist said this week. That's because Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is likely to reestablish relations with Tehran if he is elected, but introduce environmental policies that limit U.S. oil and gas, said David Fyfe of Argus Media. "Arguably, a Biden presidency would move fairly rapidly toward some sort of rapprochement with Iran," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Friday. "That of course could lead to maybe up to a million barrels a day of Iranian oil coming back onto the market," he said. "It might not happen immediately, but you could see that happening within the sort of first six months of a Biden presidency." By contrast, the Trump administration has put maximum pressure on Iran, which has seen heavy economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic, including on its oil exports. Biden has been leading President Donald Trump in multiple polls, including one by NBC News, which shows that he is up more than 10 percentage points, 51.6% compared to 41%. On the flip side, the Democrat's policies on climate change could tighten the market over the long run. "A Biden administration would try to get the U.S. back into the Paris Climate Accord," Fyfe said. "Therefore, over the longer term, it might actually be relatively bearish in terms of restraining hydrocarbon demand in the U.S. going forward." Biden last year announced a climate plan that would see $1.7 trillion invested into clean energy research and changes in infrastructure. He could also impose restrictions that would further slow the growth in U.S. shale oil and gas production, said Fyfe. Separately, he said Argus Media's base case scenario is for a "steady recovery" in the oil market, assuming Covid-19 cases do not surge and lead to widespread lockdowns. Oil futures crashed when demand evaporated as the coronavirus crisis spread earlier this year and the market worried about an oversupply. If the virus situation doesn't escalate, the oil market should continue to recover, Fyfe said. "Gradually, the 1.3 billion barrels of surplus oil that has accumulated in storage, that can be drawn down by the end of 2021, and that suggests that prices could recover to something closer to $50 to $55 by late 2021," he said. "If we have a second spike in the virus and renewed shutdowns on a broad basis, then really, all bets are off and OPEC will be scrambling to try and stitch together a new deal on supply."
OPEC cuts long-term forecast for oil demand growth, sees 'continued disparity’ in climate policy- OPEC on Thursday said it had downwardly revised its forecast for global oil demand growth over the long term, given the industry faced "an existential threat" this year in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and as climate policies continue to shape the future of energy. In its closely-watched annual World Oil Outlook, the Middle East-dominated group of oil producers outlined its medium to long-term expectations for the global economy, oil and energy demand, and related policy matters. It also extended its forecast period through to 2045, from 2040. OPEC said worldwide oil demand was expected to increase by nearly 10 million barrels per day (b/d) over the long term, rising to 109.3 million b/d in 2040, and to 109.1 million b/d in 2045. Global oil demand stood at 99.7 million b/d in 2019. It represents a downward revision of over 1 million b/d when compared to the 2040 levels projected in the group's 2019 outlook, published last November. "The year 2020 will be remembered primarily for the omnipresence, as well as unprecedented scale and reach, of the Covid-19 pandemic. From an energy point of view, the lockdown-induced economic recession has resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory," OPEC said in the report. Looking ahead, OPEC said the "big question hanging over energy and oil markets" was to what extent there would be a longer-term impact on consumer behavior, and thus energy demand. OPEC said it believed oil would remain the largest contributor to the energy mix through to 2045, accounting for more than 27%, followed by gas (roughly 25%), and coal (nearly 20%). These respective energy sources were also the three largest contributors to the fuel share in 2019. The contribution from solar, wind and geothermal energy was expected to grow by 6.6% per year on average through to 2045, "significantly" faster than any other energy source. These renewable energy sources were expected to represent 8.7% of the fuel share in 2045, up from 2.1% in 2019.
OPEC isn’t worried about peak oil demand yet - OIL DEMAND WON’T PEAK UNTIL 2040, OPEC SAYS: For OPEC, the rumors of the death of oil demand are greatly exaggerated. In fact, OPEC’s research arm expects oil demand to partly recover next year, so long as the coronavirus pandemic is largely under control by then. It doesn’t expect global peak oil demand until 2040, after which OPEC expects demand to gradually decline, according to its latest World Oil Outlook released Thursday.“[O]il will continue to account for the largest share of the energy mix by 2045, providing a stable foundation for addressing global energy needs for years to come,” reads the OPEC report. That’s even with renewable energy and natural gas taking over a growing share of the energy mix. OPEC’s view offers a stark contrast to many in the energy industry who see peak oil as a much nearer possibility.Just last month, BP projected oil demand may never reach its pre-COVID-19 levels again, especially if the world begins to cut carbon emissions dramatically in line with the Paris climate agreement. Even in a business-as-usual scenario, BP said it expects global oil demand to flatten out and start declining in about 10 to 15 years. In the near-term, economic growth, especially in developing countries, and a demand “catch-up” in sectors such as aviation and road transportation will drive post-pandemic recovery for oil demand.Longer-term, OPEC expects the aviation sector’s demand for oil to increase dramatically. In addition, growth in the petrochemical sector will drive the most significant growth in overall oil demand.And more broadly, OPEC doesn’t expect oil demand growth to slow down in developing countries, such as India and China, as their economies and demand for energy grow rapidly.OPEC is also less bullish on electric vehicle adoption over the next few decades, a shift that could take a significant chunk out of overall oil demand if it accelerates. In its outlook, OPEC projects global share of electric vehicles would be more than 16% by 2045. By comparison, BP in its September outlook expects electric cars to account for between 80-85% of total global vehicles by 2050 under scenarios where the world cuts carbon dramatically and at least 35% in a business-as-usual scenario.
Barrel rises 5% over Trump health update, strike in Norway - (Reuters) – Oil prices rose 6% on Monday, driven by the announcement that US President Donald Trump will be discharged from the hospital on Monday, just days after the news. his contagion of coronavirus caused widespread alarm. Brent crude rose $ 2.02, or 5.14%, to $ 41.29 a barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil gained $ 2.17, or 5.86% , at $ 39.22 per barrel. “This moment of strength is unlikely to support the growing number of unknowns. After all, the oil market is trapped in an endless cycle of uncertainty,” Prices fell more than 4% on Friday after Trump’s diagnosis. However, the president made a surprise appearance Sunday in a caravan outside the hospital where he is being treated, which helped boost market confidence. Trump announced that he will leave the military hospital where he is being admitted at 2230 GMT on Monday after being treated for COVID-19, adding that he feels “really good.” [nL1N2GW194] Oil was also supported by a workers’ strike in Norway. Energy company Equinor closed four of its offshore oil and gas fields on Monday as its workers expanded their mobilization, a company spokesman told Reuters. The reduction in Norwegian production was mainly offset by increased pumping in Libya, analysts said. Libyan oil production has risen by about 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) since last week to 290,000 bpd as exports grow, a Libyan source in the sector told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Oil jumps nearly 6% on stimulus hopes, Norway production shutdowns - Oil prices surged more than 5% on Monday after doctors said U.S. President Donald Trump could soon be discharged from the hospital where he is being treated for COVID-19, while six Norwegian offshore oil and gas fields were shut as more workers joined a strike. Brent crude rose $2.30, or 5.9%, to $41.57 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.17, or 5.9%, to settle at $39.22 per barrel. "A lot of people thought last week's selloff was overdone," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "There were a lot of assumptions." On Friday, prices slumped more than 4% following Trump's diagnosis. Trump's medical condition remained unclear as he began a fourth day at the military hospital where he is being treated, but his doctors have said he could be discharged as soon as Monday, which improved market sentiment. Hopes for a U.S. stimulus package to counter the economic impacts of the pandemic also supported prices. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said there was still potential to reach agreement with U.S. lawmakers on more economic relief during the coronavirus pandemic. Oil was also supported by an escalating workers' strike in Norway over pay. Six Norwegian offshore oil and gas fields were shut. The strike will cut Norway's total output capacity by just over 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or about 8% of total production, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG). "This will not entail any serious tightening of supply on the market as concerns about demand and fears of a renewed oversupply predominate at present," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. The reduction in Norwegian production was mainly balanced by rising output in Libya, analysts said. Libyan oil production has increased to 290,000 barrels per day, a source told Reuters on Monday, almost three times more than its output during a blockade that began in January and ended in September.
Oil prices gain on supply disruptions, Trump's hospital exit - Oil prices gained on Tuesday amid supply disruptions in Norway, a new hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House after being treated for COVID-19 in hospital. Brent crude futures were up 82 cents, or 2%, at $42.11 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading 82 cents higher, or 2%, at $40.06. An oil workers' strike in Norway will cut the country's total output capacity by just over 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or about 8% of total production, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association. Around 60% of the total cuts were in natural gas, with crude oil and natural gas liquids making up the rest, according to Reuters calculations. "Besides Norway, there could also be production outages in the Gulf of Mexico this week, where another hurricane has developed," Commerzbank said. Energy companies were evacuating offshore oil platforms as Hurricane Delta strengthened to category 2 and could become a major hurricane when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Chevron has begun evacuating all personnel from its platforms in the region and is shutting-in the facilities, the company said. A rally in world stock markets after Trump's return to the White House from hospital and expectations of a new U.S. stimulus package being agreed also boosted oil. Oil prices had fallen sharply when Trump went to hospital on Friday, as it created uncertainty for investors over what would happen in the United States as the country gears up for a presidential election on Nov. 3. Hopes for a bipartisan U.S. economic relief package grew as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke on Monday and prepared to talk again on Tuesday, in a concerted effort to reach a compromise on legislation.
Oil ends up on supply issues, nixed U.S. stimulus talks a bearish sign (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday, supported by expected supply disruptions from a hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico and an oil worker strike in Norway. The market slipped in post-settlement trading, however, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was instructing his administration not to negotiate a stimulus package until after the Nov. 3 election. Brent crude futures settled at $42.65 a barrel, up $1.36 a barrel, or 3.29%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $40.67 a barrel, rising $1.45, or 3.7%. In post-close trading, however, Brent fell to $42.19 while U.S. crude dropped to $40.13 a barrel. Oil prices eased further after the close following American Petroleum Institute data that showed U.S. crude stocks climbed 951,000 barrels last week compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 294,000 barrels. Trump returned to the White House following three days in the hospital for treatment for COVID-19. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had been in negotiations for an additional $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in economic stimulus before Trump’s tweet. “It looked like something was going to materialize, and now it has been blown up so everything is selling off,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. “The petroleum complex needed that stimulus to help stoke demand once again, and we’re obviously not getting it.” Energy companies shut offshore oil platforms as Hurricane Delta strengthened to a Category 2 and was on track to reach the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. It would be the 10th named storm to hit the United States this year, which would break a record dating back more a century. Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDSa.L said it was evacuating nonessential workers from all nine of its offshore Gulf of Mexico operations and preparing to shut production. Equinor ASA EQNR.OL and BHP Group Ltd BHP.AX also shut in production and evacuated workers. Norway’s petroleum output is down 8% due to an oil worker strike. A major labor union in the country is trying to resolve the dispute with oil companies, which have shut six offshore oil and gas fields.
Oil falls nearly 2% on oversupply concerns - Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump dashed hopes for another stimulus package to boost the coronavirus-hit economy and after U.S. crude inventories rose in the most recent week. Brent crude futures were down $1.15, or 2.7%, to $41.51 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 72 cents, or 1.8% lower at $39.95 per barrel. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on Wednesday said he was not optimistic that a comprehensive deal could be reached on further COVID-19 financial aid and that the Trump administration backed a more piecemeal approach. "Trump pulling out of relief negotiations generates a lot of uncertainty about the economy," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities research at BNP Paribas. Oil prices were also hit by a slightly larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories. Crude inventories rose by 501,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 2 to 492.9 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 294,000-barrel rise. Both gasoline and distillate inventories fell. "The inability to coordinate another stimulus package is having a negative impact on demand sentiment, but the data shows that we perhaps have something to be encouraged about," said Tony Headrick, energy market analyst at CHS Hedging. Energy companies secured offshore platforms and evacuated workers on Tuesday, some for the sixth time this year, as Hurricane Delta threatened U.S. oil output in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm has shut 29% of offshore oil production in the Gulf, which accounts for 17% of total U.S. crude output. In Norway, the Lederne labour union said on Tuesday that it will expand oil strike from Oct. 10 unless a wage deal can be reached. Six offshore oil and gas fields shut down on Monday because of the strike, cutting Norway's output capacity by 8%.
Crude oil futures inch higher despite US crude build | S&P Global Platts- Crude oil futures ticked up during mid-morning trade in Asia Oct. 8, clawing back some of the overnight losses, as the impact of a build in US crude inventories was negated by the support offered to the market by draws in product inventories and escalating supply disruptions in Norway and the US Gulf of Mexico. At 11.23 am Singapore time (0323 GMT), ICE Brent December crude futures were up 13 cents/b (0.31%) from the Oct. 7 settle to $42.12/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract was up 5 cents/b (0.13%) at $40/b. Both international crude markets had dived 1.55% and 1.77% to settle at $41.99/b and $39.95/b respectively on Oct. 7, when the cancellation of US stimulus negotiations had rattled the market. The uptick came despite data from the US Energy Information Administration showing that, due to increased US production and a slowdown in exports, US commercial crude inventories jumped 500,000 barrels to 492.93 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 2. The impact of the crude inventory build was cushioned by indications of improved downstream demand, as the EIA data also showed that, in the same week, US distillate inventories fell 960,000 barrels to 171.8 million barrels and US gasoline inventories fell 1.44 million barrels to 226.75 million barrels, 0.4% lower than the five-year average gasoline inventory. Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AXI, in an Oct. 8 note said: " Prices received some support from a draw in product stocks in the DOE data, which offset small crude build." In addition, escalating supply disruptions in Norway and the US Gulf has also buoyed oil prices. With 330,000 b/d of oil equivalent production already offline in Norway, the Lederne union in Norway said that it will extend its strike on Oct. 11 to include two platforms at the flagship Ekofisk field, two satellite fields that feed the Oseberg crude stream, and Kristin, a satellite of the Asgard crude stream, S&P Global Platts reported on Oct. 7. "Around 330,000 barrels a day have already been lost to the strike, and [the Lederne union's latest move] is expected to add about 170,000 more," Innes said. Meanwhile, in the US Gulf of Mexico, nearly 1.49 million b/d of crude production and 1,335 MMcf/d of natural gas production -- 80.42% and 49.26% of total offshore output, respectively, -- was offline, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, as producers in the region braced for the Hurricane Delta.. Lastly, hopes of fiscal relief continued to lift market sentiment. US President Donald Trump, after shutting down discussions over a US stimulus package till after the elections, said he supported passing stand-alone relief provisions instead.
Oil jumps 3% to highest level in nearly five weeks on supply losses - Oil climbed on Thursday on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the prospect of more supply losses in Norway. Oil and gas workers have withdrawn from offshore U.S. Gulf production facilities as Hurricane Delta was forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm. Nearly 1.5 million barrels of daily output was halted. Brent crude was up 86 cents, or 2%, to $42.85 barrel, after falling 1.6% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled $1.24, or 3.1%, higher at $41.19 per barrel after falling 1.8% on Wednesday. "Hurricane Delta is a crude oil supply event, and with all of this Gulf of Mexico production offline, we will probably lose more than 5 million barrels of crude oil due to the storm," said Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, Texas. "However, the storm is having a limited impact on gasoline and diesel demand," he added. Oil also gained support from the prospect of more production outages in the North Sea because of a workers' strike. The major Johan Sverdrup field will have to shut unless the strike ends by Oct. 14. The production losses offset concerns about demand, rising coronavirus cases and rising U.S. crude inventories. Renewed optimism over some U.S. coronavirus relief aid also supported the market. After shutting down talks over a larger U.S. stimulus deal, President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that Congress should pass funding for airlines, small businesses and stimulus checks for individuals, fuelling hopes for relief. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faces a new challenge from rising output in Libya, an OPEC member exempted from cutting output. On Thursday, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said the worst was over for the oil market.
Oil ends higher as hurricane cuts over 90% of Gulf crude output – Oil prices ended higher Thursday as Hurricane Delta forced the shut-in of more than 90% of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude output and the Saudis reportedly consider postponing OPEC plans to raise output. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose $1.24, or 3.1%, to settle at $41.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude, the global benchmark, added $1.35, or 3.2%, at $43.34 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. A strike in Norway also threatened to reduce production in the North Sea according to MarketWatch. As of Wednesday, 91.53% of Gulf oil production and 61.82% of natural-gas output were shut in as the hurricane churned in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is considering the postponement of plans for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise oil production early next year to the end of the first quarter, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing comments from senior Saudi oil advisers. They cited the rise in COVID-19 cases in many parts of the world, as well as the expected return of Libyan crude oil to the world market for rethinking the plan, the report said. OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, had agreed to cut overall oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day starting in May. The group tapered the cuts starting in August to 7.7 million barrels per day. “The Saudi reluctance to raise output should solidify an oil bottom,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch. With uncertainty surrounding a second wave of COVID-19 cases and the success that OPEC+ has had with output cuts, and with global supply tightening, “why change course?”
Oil prices slip over 1% after Norway oil worker strike ends (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped more than 1% on Friday after an oil worker strike in Norway ended, which should boost crude output even as Hurricane Delta forced U.S. energy firms to cut production. in an attempt to end the strike. Brent futures fell 49 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $42.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell 59 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $40.60. Despite Friday’s price slide, both benchmarks gained about 9% this week, their first increase in three weeks and the biggest weekly rise for Brent since June. Oil futures climbed earlier in the week due to concerns the strike in Norway and the hurricane headed for the U.S. Gulf Coast would cut crude output. Norwegian oil firms struck a wage bargain with labour union officials on Friday, ending a 10-day strike that had threatened to cut the country’s oil and gas output by close to 25% next week. “One of the bullish factors that had been supporting prices fell apart late in the day when it was announced that Norway would end their strike,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Also weighing on prices were doubts voiced by Republicans in the U.S. Senate that a coronavirus economic stimulus deal could be reached before the Nov. 3 election. Earlier in the day, oil prices briefly turned positive after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she would resume talks on a possible $1.8 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Hurricane Delta, meanwhile, dealt the greatest blow to U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico energy production in 15 years, halting most of the region’s oil and nearly two-thirds of natural gas output. Looking ahead, JP Morgan said that a worsening global oil demand outlook due to a potential rise in coronavirus cases this winter would likely prompt the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reverse a planned easing of oil cuts in 2021, with Saudi Arabia offering deeper cuts below its current quota.
Oil Prices Up More Than 9% for the Week | Rigzone -- Crude prices slid after oil workers in Norway called off a strike that had shut down about 8% of the country’s production. Futures in London and New York both fell over 1% on Friday. The settlement will restore production at six fields already shut down by the dispute and prevent an escalation to another six. It also averts the shutdown of Norway’s largest oil field, the 460,000 barrel-a-day Johan Sverdrup facility. Still, Brent futures posted the largest weekly gain since early June and U.S. benchmark crude futures also advanced this week on supply disruptions from Hurricane Delta and optimism on a U.S. stimulus deal. “If the strike lasted into next week or even beyond, that would mean a significant additional amount of platforms and fields that were impacted by the strike,” Gary Cunningham, a director at Tradition Energy. “Now that it’s resolved, not only are the incremental curtailments not going to happen, but now the original production is going to come back online.” Futures were boosted this week amid President Donald Trump’s departure from the hospital following treatment for Covid-19 and mounting enthusiasm over a U.S. virus aid package, which would help spur a demand recovery. The coronavirus pandemic has been forcing governments worldwide to rethink reopening plans: Spain’s government has declared a state of emergency for the Madrid region and in the U.S., Texas virus hospitalizations jumped to a four-week high. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin headed into talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday, carrying a White House offer of $1.8 trillion for economic stimulus, according to people familiar with the matter. The two spoke for about 30 minutes and Mnuchin’s proposal “attempted to address some of the concerns Democrats have,” Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said on Twitter. “This is a very positive development,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “The petroleum complex needs a stimulus package as badly as any of the other asset classes, maybe even more so. To the extent that this gets the economy sort of stabilized, or maybe revived, that portends well for demand going forward.” Prices West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell 59 cents to settle at $40.60 a barrel. The contract rose 9.6% this week. Brent for December settlement lost 49 cents to end the session at $42.85 a barrel. The benchmark posted a 9.1% weekly gain. Meanwhile, Hurricane Delta has weakened to a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 miles (177 kilometers) per hour. Energy companies have evacuated staff from offshore and onshore facilities. Currently, 1.7 million barrels a day of oil output in the Gulf of Mexico shut in.
UAE official says Turkey's army in Qatar destabilises region (Reuters) - Turkey’s army in Qatar is an element of instability in the Gulf region, a senior official of the United Arab Emirates said on Saturday, adding that it contributes to negative polarization. “The Turkish military presence in the Arab Gulf is an emergency,” UAE minister of state for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted. “It reinforces polarization, and it does not take into account the sovereignty of states and the interests of the Gulf countries and its peoples.”r
Armenia, Azerbaijan bomb each other’s cities - A week after fighting erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, bloodshed escalated this weekend as both sides bombarded each other’s cities. A new eruption of the 1988-1994 war between the two former Soviet republics over control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which initially broke out in the run-up to the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, threatens to escalate into an all-out regional war. The war threatens to drag in not only the two countries’ main regional backers—Russia, which supports Armenia, and Turkey, which backs Azerbaijan—but also to intensify divisions within NATO. Calls are growing in France, which is already fighting a proxy war against Turkish-backed forces in Libya and backing Greek maritime claims in the Mediterranean against Turkey, to intervene more aggressively in support of Armenia. Azeri barrages targeted several towns in Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenian forces have held since 1994 and Azeri forces are trying to retake. Azeri forces also reported that they captured several villages there.Azeri President Ilham Aliyev tweeted: “Today the Azeri army liberated the village of Talish in the Terter region; the villages of Mehdili, Chakhyrly, Ashagi Maralyan, Shaibey and Guidzhag in the Jebrail region; and the village of Ashagi Abdurrahmanli in the Fizuli region. Karabakh is Azerbaijan.” On October 2, Armenian authorities reported that Azeri forces hit the road linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh with an Israeli-made LORA missile. Yesterday, Armenian forces bombed Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second-largest city after Baku, saying the risk of civilian casualties would not deter them. The Azeri Defense Ministry reported that in Ganja, “As a result of enemy fire, civilians, civilian infrastructure, and ancient historical buildings were harmed.” Arayik Harutyunyan, the leader of Artsakh, the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh, said he would respond to strikes on his capital, Stepanakert, by bombing Azeri cities. He declared: “The Azeri terrorist army is targeting civilians in Stepanakert, using Polonez and Smerch weapons systems. From now on, military targets in large Azeri cities are the target of the Defense Army of Artsakh. We are calling on the Azeri population to leave these cities to avoid inevitable losses.” The toll in civilian and military losses is rising rapidly. Officials reported 21 civilian deaths in Azerbaijan and 13 in Armenia this weekend, with the military situation on the ground remaining unclear. Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh reported that 51 servicemen were killed on Saturday, while Azeri forces have declined to state their military losses.In a TV address Saturday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said: “As of now, we already have significant human losses, both military and civilian, large quantities of military equipment are no longer usable, but the adversary still has not been able to solve any of its strategic issues.”
Armenian-Azerbaijan war turns Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia into a powder keg - The war between Armenia, whose population is Christian, and Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country, in the South Caucasus has turned the entire region into a military and ethnic-religious powder keg. The war began on September 27, when Azerbaijan launched a major offensive, involving heavy artillery, tanks and warplanes, against the Armenian-controlled enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Both Baku and Yerevan have now bombed major cities, and civilian casualties are estimated to be in the hundreds. Military analyst Leonid Nersisyan told the Russian Nezavisimaya Gazetalast week that the scale of the fighting was unprecedented, and that the military losses incurred in a single day already went beyond what occurred during the war of 1992-1994. In an address to the nation on October 4, Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, declared that his country would not stop the offensive until Armenia formally agrees to withdraw its forces from Azerbaijani territory. He also demanded a public apology from Armenia. These conditions are generally deemed unacceptable to Armenia. On Monday, Iran announced a peace plan, offering itself as a mediator between the two warring sides. However, the Russian press reported that Baku and Turkey, which is heavily backing Azerbaijan, are preparing for a prolonged war that might eventually draw in both Russia and Iran. Russia has an important military base in Armenia, and the war threatens to cut off supply routes to this base. The war has major implications for Europe, Russia and the Middle East, as it directly intersects with the conflicts in the Middle East and Northern Africa that have been ignited by the intervention of US imperialism in the past decades. By virtue of its geographic position as a bridge between Europe, the Black Sea and the Middle East, the energy-rich Caucasus has long been a hotspot for geopolitical rivalries. Since the break-up of the USSR in 1991, the religious and ethnic tensions in the region, which had been exacerbated by decades under the rule of the Stalinist bureaucracy, have systematically been exploited, especially by the US and its allies, to further their interests.
Turkey backs Azeri offensive on Armenia as Russia, Iran warn of escalation -Azeri forces launched a large-scale offensive in the south of the Nagorno-Karabakh, nine days after fighting broke out again between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region. On Tuesday, Armenian Defense Ministry spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan cited reports from Artsakh, the Armenian authority in the Karabakh: “According to the Artsakh Defense Army, this afternoon the Azeri Armed Forces launched a large-scale attack in the southern direction of the line of contact between Artsakh and Azerbaijan, throwing reserve forces, large amounts of military equipment, including tanks and artillery [into battle]. The enemy ignores also the security of the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” which Azeri and Armenian forces have both shelled.The Armenian Foreign Ministry also noted that the offensive began during Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu’s visit to the Azeri capital, Baku, pledging support for the ethnic-Turkic Azeris against Armenia.In Baku, Çavuşoğlu rejected cease-fire calls from France, Russia, Iran and other powers, demanding Armenia hand the Karabakh over to Azerbaijan: “Let’s have a cease-fire, OK, but what will happen after that? Will you be able to tell Armenia to immediately withdraw from Azerbaijan’s territory? Or are you able to draw up a solution for it to withdraw? No. We have supported efforts for a peaceful resolution, but Armenia has enjoyed the fruits of the occupation for 30 years.”Azeri President Ilham Aliyev met Çavuşoğlu to thank him for Turkey’s support: “This support inspires us, gives us additional strength and at the same time plays an important role in ensuring stability and prosperity in the region.” There have also been multiple independent reports in European media, not denied by Turkish officials, that Syrian Islamist militias and Turkish private security firms are sending fighters to join Azeri troops against Armenia. On this basis, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan issued a pledge yesterday to continue fighting as part of the so-called “war on terror.”
Armenians Fight Back Against Azerbaijani Advance, Strike Key Oil Pipeline - Armenian forces launched a missile attack on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, according to Azerbaijan. The country’s prosecutors said that Armenian forces had carried out the attack, which was prevented by the Azerbaijani military, on the pipeline in Yevlah at around 9 p.m. local time on October 6. The incident was described as a “terrorist act”.The BTC pipeline delivers Azeri light crude oil (mainly from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field) through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan for export via tankers. Another crucial Azerbaijani energy infrastructure object, which could become a potential target of Armenian attacks is the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field with Europe through Georgia and Turkey. The Armenian side denounced the Azerbaijani report as fake news. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia regularly accuse each other of striking civilian and infrastructure objects on their sovereign territory and denounce the opponent’s claims as propaganda and fakes.Meanwhile, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov threatened Armenia with “using the weapons with great destructive power” to deliver strikes on “the military-strategic infrastructure” of Armenia if it employs its Iskander operational-tactical missile systems against Azerbaijani forces.However, it does not seem that the Armenian political leadership is ready to employ all the variety of its means and forces to fight back in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Instead, the government of Nikol Pashinyan is now mostly focused on the diplomatic campaign in Western media in an attempt to convince the so-called international community to help it to keep control over Karabakh. Mr. Pashinyan, who just a few days ago was promising to inflict a military defeat on what he called the Azerbaijani-Turkish terror alliance even declared that Armenia is ready for mutual concessions. Nonetheless, Baku and Ankara do not seem to be ready for a new ceasefire and the resumption of negotiations at the present time.On the frontline in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region itself, the main hot point is the district of Jabrayil. Using the worsening weather conditions (fog and thick clouds), which complicate the work of Azerbaijani combat drones, Armenian forces were able to stabilize the frontline and prevent further gains of the Azerbaijani military in this part of Karabakh. On October 7, Armenia even claimed that a large-scale Azerbaijani attack had been repelled in the area. The Defense Ministry claimed that over 60 dead and multiple equipment pieces were left by Azerbaijan on the battlefield. Meanwhile, Armenian forces and cities of the region are still subjected to intense artillery bombardment by the Azerbaijani military. Heavy destruction was inflicted on the city of Stepanakert. As soon as the weather improves, Azerbaijan with help from Turkey will likely resume active drone strikes and launch a new phase of the ground offensive along the contact line.
Armenia and Azerbaijan Reach Cease-Fire After Russia-Brokered Talks – WSJ —Armenia and Azerbaijan announced a cease-fire after nearly two weeks of intense fighting that has claimed hundreds of lives following Russia-brokered talks over thedisputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.The foreign ministers of the two warring countries said in a statement early Saturday that the truce, which began at noon local time, is intended to provide space to exchange prisoners and recover the dead. The announcement followed more than 10 hours of negotiations in Moscow mediated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that specific details will be agreed on later as talks continue.Azerbaijan and Armenia “are starting substantive negotiations with the aim of achieving a peaceful settlement as soon as possible,” Mr. Lavrov said, adding that the talks would be mediated by Russia, the U.S. and France.Underscoring the precariousness of any truce in the volatile region, both sides accused each other of violating the cease-fire shortly after it took effect. Armenia said Azeri units launched an assault five minutes after 12 p.m. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, said that Armenian armed forces were firing on Azeri regions. Roughly the size of Delaware, the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh—a disputed enclave controlled by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan—has been a flashpoint between the two countries since the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The fighting flared up last month after nearly three decades of on-again, off-again skirmishes. A six-year war that ended in a 1994 cease-fire claimed some 30,000 lives.Both sides have blamed each other for triggering the current outbreak of hostilities on Sept. 27. Armenia said Friday that 376 of its soldiers had been killed in the fighting so far, while Azerbaijan hasn’t disclosed how many of its troops have been killed.Authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh said the conflict so far has cost at least 22 lives and injured more than 80 people. Azerbaijan said 31 Azeri civilians have been killed and 168 have been injured.
Armenia and Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire (Reuters) - Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of swiftly and seriously violating the terms of a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh on Saturday, raising questions about how meaningful the truce, brokered by Russia, would turn out to be. The ceasefire, clinched after marathon talks in Moscow advocated by President Vladimir Putin, was meant to halt fighting to allow ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azeri forces to swap prisoners and war dead. The Moscow talks were the first diplomatic contact between the two since fighting over the mountainous enclave erupted on Sept. 27, killing hundreds of people. The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but is populated and governed by ethnic Armenians. Within minutes of the truce taking effect from midday, both sides accused each other of breaking it. The Armenian defence ministry accused Azerbaijan of shelling a settlement inside Armenia, while ethnic Armenian forces in Karabakh alleged that Azeri forces had launched a new offensive five minutes after the truce took hold. Azerbaijan said enemy forces in Karabakh were shelling Azeri territory. Both sides have consistently denied each others’ assertions in what has also become a war of words accompanying the fighting. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev told Russia’s RBC news outlet that the warring parties were now engaged in trying to find a political settlement, but suggested there would be further fighting ahead. “We’ll go to the very end and get what rightfully belongs to us,” he said. Azeri Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said the truce would last only for as long as it took for the Red Cross to arrange the exchange of the dead. Speaking at a briefing in Baku, he said Azerbaijan hoped and expected to take control of more territory in time.
North Korea unveils 'monster' new intercontinental ballistic missile at parade (Reuters) - North Korea unveiled previously unseen intercontinental ballistic missiles at an unprecedented predawn military parade on Saturday that showcased the country’s long-range weapons for the first time in two years. Analysts said the missile, which was shown on a transporter vehicle with 11 axles, would be one of the largest road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the world if it becomes operational. “This missile is a monster,” said Melissa Hanham, deputy director of the Open Nuclear Network. Also displayed were the Hwasong-15, which is the longest-range missile ever tested by North Korea, and what appeared to be a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Ahead of the parade, which was held to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party, officials in South Korea and the United States said Kim Jong Un could use the event to unveil a new “strategic weapon” as promised earlier this year.
World food price index rise 5% year-on-year in September: FAO - (Reuters) - World food prices rose for a fourth month running in September, led by strong increases for cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 97.9 points last month versus a downwardly revised 95.9 in August. The August figure was previously given as 96.1. The Rome-based FAO also said in a statement that worldwide cereal harvests remained on course to hit an annual record in 2020, even though it slightly trimmed its previous forecasts. The agency’s cereal price index rose 5.1% in September from the month before and 13.6% above its value a year earlier. “Higher wheat price quotations led the increase, spurred by brisk trade activity amid concerns over production prospects in the southern hemisphere as well as dry conditions affecting winter wheat sowings around Europe,” FAO said. Maize, sorghum and barley prices rose, while rice fell 1.4% as fresh demand slowed. The vegetable oil price index climbed 6.0% month-on-month, thanks largely to rising palm, sunflowerseed and soy oil quotations, reaching an 8-month high. [POI/] The dairy index was little changed on the month, with moderate increases in price quotations for butter, cheese and skim milk powder offset by a fall in those of whole milk powder. Average sugar prices fell 2.6% from August, reflecting expectations of a global production surplus for the new 2020/2021 season. The meat index dipped 0.9% month-on-month and was down 9.4% year-on-year, with quotations for pig meat dropping on the back of China’s move to ban imports from Germany following the detection of African swine fever in Europe’s largest economy. FAO revised down its forecast for the 2020 cereal season by 2.5 million tonnes, reflecting lower expectations for the output of global coarse grains. However, despite this reduction, the agency still expected a record harvest this year of 2.762 billion tonnes, up 2.1% on 2019 levels. The forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2020/21 was put at 2.744 billion tonnes, down 2.8 million tonnes since September, but still 54.5 million tonnes above the 2019/20 estimate. The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 was 890 million tonnes, down 5.9 million tonnes from the previous estimate but still representing a record high.
U.S. Crop Report Signals Worsening Global Food-Insecurity Crisis -On the same day the World Food Programme was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its fight against hunger, fresh numbers from the U.S. government showed that tighter crop supplies could worsen the food-inequality crisis that’s sweeping the globe.In its hotly watched monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday said world soybean stockpiles will be smaller than expected, signaled growing competition over global wheat shipments and highlighted dry weather as a threat to crops in parts of South America and Europe.Taken together, the report indicated that global food prices could keep climbing, making adequate nutrition more expensive as millions are thrown out of work and economic woes deepen. Just this week, the United Nations released its gauge of global food prices, which showed costs rose 2.1% in September, mainly driven by grains and vegetable oils. The index is approaching a multi-year peak set in January. The USDA figures show that the increases could continue as China imports more soybeans and wheat, tightening the global balance sheet. Prices are rising as the world is forecast for a sharp rise in food insecurity because of Covid-19’s impact. As many as 132 million more people globally may fall into the grip of hunger this year, including in many places that used to have relative stability. While global grain and oilseed supplies remain relatively robust, wild weather including a recent severe wind storm in Iowa means harvests are smaller than initially hoped. Average yields for U.S. corn and soybeans are still record large, though there are fewer acres that will be harvested.Meanwhile, in top wheat-exporter Russia, production was raised by 5 million metric tons to 83 million tons, the second-biggest ever, according to the USDA’s report. Wheat output was cut in Argentina, Canada, Ukraine and the U.S. Prices have been surging in Chicago, with investors enticed by a demand-driven rally. Soybeans for November delivery climbed as much as 2.8% to $10.7975 a bushel Friday, the highest for a most-active contract since March 2018. Wheat prices touched a five-year high earlier this week.
Global Outlook Brightens as U.S. Consumer Imports Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels – WSJ —The U.S. posted its largest monthly trade deficit since 2006 in August as imports of consumer goods recovered to pre-pandemic levels, adding to evidence of a snapback in global trade. The U.S. trade deficit widened 5.9% from July to $67.1 billion, the largest gap since August 2006, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Imports rose 3.2% to $239 billion in August, while exports ticked 2.2% higher to $171.9 billion as exports of services and manufacturing products stalled. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a trade gap of $66.2 billion. Imports of consumer goods and food rose in August and are the only broad categories of foreign trade that have surpassed year-ago levels, Tuesday’s data showed. That likely reflects the roughly $1 trillion of fiscal support that the federal government has pumped into U.S. households through enhanced unemployment insurance, stimulus checks and tax cuts, since March. While those programs have mostly run their course—the additional $600 weekly unemployment benefits expired in July—consumer spending continued to grow through August. The result has been higher imports of furniture, clothes and pharmaceuticals. Imports of industrial supplies fell in August from July and imports of capital goods and vehicles slowed, suggesting renewed caution by domestic businesses following the economy’s initial rebound from coronavirus-related shutdowns. Overall exports remained 13% below their level in August 2019, as slowing momentum in the global economy weighed on U.S. sales of capital goods and industrial supplies to other countries. The overall trade deficit has been further exacerbated by a decline in the U.S.’s longstanding trade surplus in services, which fell to $16.8 billion—its lowest level in nine years—from $23.8 billion in August 2019. While there were signs that the U.S.’s dominance in services was waning before the pandemic, much of the more-recent decline stems from Covid-19’s impact on international tourism, which has collapsed in recent months. So-called travel exports, which represent spending by foreigners in the U.S., were down 77% in August from a year earlier at $3.62 billion.
Covid-19 and the Global Addiction to Cheap Migrant Labor - COVID-19 hit the world as a freight train hits a car stalled at a railroad crossing. The virus has shredded the rhythm of our daily lives, and it will reconfigure our economies and politics. How exactly it will do so remains unclear, but this much is certain: across the globe, middle class standards of living depend on the labor and – during a global pandemic – the deaths of an army of cheap migrant workers. The virus has shed light on this dependence, but there is nothing new about it; it has been a basic feature of national and global capitalism since at least the 1970s. And, for all the talk more of a new, more just world that will emerge from the ashes of COVID-19, the world’s addiction to cheap labor is going nowhere. The virus highlighted the world’s structural dependence on cheap, exploitable labor. As lockdowns spread around the globe in February (in much of Asia) and March (in much of Europe and North America), low-skilled migrants suffered some combination of four fates: unemployment, internment, expulsion, and infection.In Turkey, the pandemic slashed domestic growth and foreign remittances, and the first who were sacked were many of the 3.7 million Syrians refugees working in the informal sector. Inlocked-down Singapore, 30,000 migrant workers were confined to crammed dormitories with as many as twenty bunk beds per rooms. In India, when Prime Minister Modi shut down a country of 1.3 billion people on 24 March, at least 600,000 internal migrants tried to return home – clogging roads and railways in scenes that evoked memories of the great flights and expulsions during partition. As Saudi Arabia entered lockdown, the Kingdom expelled over 2,800 Ethiopian migrants.These lockdowns, sackings, and expulsions highlighted the degree to which both the global south and the global north are structurally dependent on cheap (e)migrants. At $554 billion globally in 2019, remittances provide more income than international aid; in Tajikistan, annual remittances from over one million guest workers in Russia are responsible for one-half of the country’s GDP. Due to the pandemic, global remittances may fall by as much as $108 billion dollars this year. But the global south also depends on cheap migrant labor – chiefly internal migrants in India and China, chiefly external migrants in Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and the Gulf States – for construction, manufacturing, meat processing, caregiving, cleaning, and numerous other menial jobs.In the global north, multiple sectors depend on low-skilled migrant labor, but two depend on it to a superlative degree: agriculture and meatpacking. In meatpacking and meat processing, laborers work cheek-by-jowl, hacking away at poultry, pork, and beef as it flies by at line speeds that have increased decade-on-decade. Migrant workers live in crammed, often squalid, quarters. Human trafficking – including contract deception, wage theft, and illegal document retention – is common. The sector was a perfect incubator for the coronavirus: in Germany, Ireland, France, Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands, and the United States, meat processing plants became COVID-19 hotspots, and the virus infected tens of thousands of workers. In the US alone, 16,200 meat and poultry plant workers tested positive as early as May (the latest date for which the CDC produced numbers), and 86 died; 87% of the dead were minorities.
Global billionaire wealth tops $10 trillion as COVID-19 deaths mount - The collective wealth of the world’s 2,189 billionaires has risen to $10.2 trillion, an increase of nearly $1.3 trillion in the past three years, according to a new report by the Swiss bank UBS and PricewaterhouseCoopers. The unprecedented surge in wealth takes place amidst a global pandemic that has killed more than one million people worldwide, including more than 215,000 in the United States alone. The report, “Riding the Storm,” is based on data from 43 markets, including interviews with 60 billionaires, accounting for around 98 percent of global billionaire wealth. It sums up the results: “Most of the decade was a time of exceptional prosperity for billionaires regardless of sector…” The US continues to have the largest concentration of billionaire wealth, accounting for 36 percent of the world’s total, or $3.6 trillion. China ranked second with $1.6 trillion and saw the largest growth over the decade, by 1,146 percent. Third was Germany, where billionaire wealth totaled $594.9 billion, an increase of 175 percent from 2009’s $216.1 billion. While fourth in terms of billionaire wealth at $467.6 billion, Russia saw the smallest growth by percentage, 80 percent, from $260.2 billion in 2009 to $467.6 billion in 2020. The $10.2 trillion amassed by less than .0003 percent of the global population is more than the estimated 2020 Gross Domestic Product of every country on the planet except for the US and China. The staggering total hoarded by less than 2,200 people, or about the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US within the last 72 hours, surpasses the previous high of $8.9 trillion recorded in 2017.
Police shut down protests, fine students at University of Sydney - During the past two months, police have broken up four protests and one meeting at the University of Sydney, with dozens of fines issued to participants. On the patently false pretext of enforcing COVID-19 safety measures, the state Liberal-National government in New South Wales has deployed police to conduct anti-democratic operations on a university campus. Amid mass unemployment, intensifying cuts to university jobs, and planned student fee increases, there is rising political and social unrest among students, and more broadly among youth and workers. Under these conditions, the mobilisation of police on campuses—previously regarded as safe venues for political demonstrations—is a warning of the authoritarian measures being prepared against the working class as a whole. On July 31, approximately 30 police officers broke up a socially-distanced rally of students against the federal Liberal-National government’s plan to increase course feesfor humanities, communications, law, economics and commerce students to $14,500 a year, the highest fee bracket. For humanities students, this means a more than doubling of fees. Police chase protesters in Victoria Park 23 September 2020 (Credit: Honi Soit, Twitter) While students were dispersing, police identified a rally organiser, Adam Adelpour, and chased him down. Adelpour and another student were both issued $1,000 fines. On August 28, over 70 police officers, including from the riot squad and mounted police, prevented a planned rally from taking place. The event was called to protest cuts by the federal government and university managements.
New Zealand prime minister's party promises to ban conversion therapy - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s ruling party plans to ban conversion therapy if reelected, an official said this week.“Conversion therapy has been linked to severe adverse mental health issues, including depression, anxiety and suicidal ideation — that’s why it will be banned under a reelected Labour Government,” Labour Party leader Tāmati Coffey told Reuters. “It is a practice that causes harm and is out of place in the kind, inclusive and modern country we are,” he continued.The news agency noted that New Zealand’s government is currently led by the Labour Party, which Ardern heads, in a coalition with the Green Party and the New Zealand First Party. Her government is reportedly expected to easily win reelection later this month. Ardern reportedly voiced support for banning conversion therapy previously. Conversion therapy is a highly controversial practice designed to change a person's sexual orientation. It is has been widely condemned as ineffective by the mental health community and is believed to cause psychological harm. A number of states in the U.S. have passed legislation banning the practice of gay conversion therapy for minors in recent years, like Colorado, Virginia and Maine. Germany also announced plans to ban the practice for minors last year.
Conspiracy of Silence - It was after midnight, and I passed by another journalist’s house to pick her up before we drove into neighboring Mexico State. A friend of ours had been covering a feminist takeover of the state’s Human Rights Commission—a protest against their handling of sexual abuse and femicide cases—when police entered the building. They beat the women gathered and detained them in unmarked vehicles. They took our friend’s phone, which she had been using to livestream the aggression. The video cut off just after she yelled back at officers identifying herself as press. We imagined the worst. Shortly before we arrived at the prosecutors’ office where they’d taken the women, we heard from someone else that our friend was okay, and when we got out of the car, there she was. The others—eleven women and a handful of children—remained detained. Their family members showed up; nine other journalists, all women, joined us; a group of black-bloc feminists arrived in support and set to breaking the office’s windows. Shortly before 3 a.m., the police retaliated. They sprayed fire extinguishers to drive us from the building’s courtyard into the parking lot, then turned off the outdoor lights. Moments later, they stormed the small crowd outside, throwing chairs and the extinguishers, chasing us with metal tubes and screaming threats. From across the parking lot, I saw several women climb into a car; as they attempted to accelerate away, the police smashed their back windshield. Another car packed with journalists pulled up alongside me, and I scrambled into the backseat where there were already four or five others. We drove away, some of us crying, some yelling, some frantically dialing others who’d been left behind, some in shock. I grabbed my phone and called the representative for the Committee for Protection of Journalists. We pulled over in a gas station to recoup, then jumped back in the car when we saw police cars speeding the other way. By the morning, we’d ascertained that a handful of additional people had been taken into custody after the attack. All were released around 10 a.m., beaten and threatened; some were hospitalized. We had seen the very least of the night’s brutality, itself but a sliver of the repression that the Mexican state routinely exercises against journalists, activists, and anyone who dares to challenge it. Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists—by some counts, the most dangerous non-war zone. Five journalists have been killed this year alone; at least 130 have been murdered since 2000. For all its infamy, though, the logic of violence against Mexican journalists is often opaque to outsiders, and I struggle to explain it myself. It often works like a spiral. The state—by which I mean the police, the military, and paramilitary groups—or perhaps not the state, but another group of shadowy interests, understood under the heuristic of organized crime—tortures and/or disappears and/or murders someone. Activists, friends, and family members turn out to protest the violence against that someone, until the same thing happens to them. A journalist covers the new violations, and they, too, become a victim—then the activists who protest for them, the journalists who write about them, and so on.
Zimbabwean teachers refuse to work as government reopens schools without COVID-19 protection - Zimbabwe’s teachers are in their second week of strike action against the government’s back-to-school campaign being rammed through with minimal protections and over poverty level wages. It follows a three-month strike by 16,000 nurses over a lack of personal protective equipment and low wages, betrayed by the Zimbabwe Nurses Association. The actions are part of a growing wave of opposition by teachers and health workers against the reckless and homicidal response of capitalist governments around the world to the coronavirus pandemic. Teachers refused to resume teaching on September 28 when schools reopened for the first time since March for those students taking exams in December. Regular classes for all students were due to resume on October 5. The reopening of schools is bound up with the government’s efforts to drive parents back to work and to start generating profits for multinational corporations and the national bourgeoisie. Schools have been starved of funds for years, with parents providing most of the funding after the introduction of user charges in the 1990s. Classroom conditions are abysmal. Tawanda Chikondo, a 29-year-old teacher, told Bloomberg, “Our school looks like something from a war film, because I doubt it’s been painted in 25 or 30 years. There are broken windows, crumbling walls and we don’t have water. This is Zimbabwe, can you imagine? Africa’s most-educated nation has to teach children under trees because the classrooms are squalid and unkempt.” There is an acute shortage of schools, particularly in rural areas, with more than 2,000 extra schools needed. Teacher to pupil ratios range between 1:45 and 1:120 because of the shortage of teachers and classrooms available, making social distancing impossible. Teachers and students lack the most basic safety measures. Limited hand sanitiser has been made available under conditions where even clean water is a scarce commodity, as Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education officials acknowledge. Teachers are demanding that as frontline workers they should have regular testing, adequate personal protective equipment (PPE), and risk allowances before they are prepared to start work again.
Furloughed Jobs Disguise The Eurozone Employment Crisis --The United States jobs recovery slowed down slightly in September, but the employment recovery is still faster than in most comparable economies. The jobs report showed a healthy 661,000 gain in non-farm payrolls last month. Much of the difference with consensus came from shifts in government payrolls, which fell 216,000 in September. However, private payrolls rose by a healthy 877,000. This means that unemployment may have fallen below the 8.1% level in September.In Europe, according to Eurostat, the unemployment rate increased to 7.4% in August, while in the euro area it rose to 8.1%. However, more than 10 million workers remain in furloughed jobs, making the comparison with the United States, that does not have that scheme of subsidised unemployment, a challenge. In similar terms, the Eurozone unemployment would be close to 11% if we used the same calculation as the United States. The OECD estimates that unemployment will rise above 10% in the eurozone before year-end as furlough schemes end.Eurostat said it estimates that over 15.6 million people in the EU and around 13.2 million in the euro area were unemployed in August. Compared with July, the number of unemployed increased by 238,000 in the EU and 251,000 in the euro area.The furloughed jobs schemes have been one of the most important policies implemented by the European nations in the Covid-19 crisis. They aim to protect jobs for a few months while businesses recover their activity. These schemes were designed to allow companies to pass what was expected to be a short and almost painless crisis of two, maybe three months. Now, many European nations face a double problem. Many of the companies that signed for these furloughed job schemes face bankruptcy as the economic crisis has been longer and more damaging to the business fabric than governments expected. With almost one in five companies in Europe facing substantial losses and many close to bankruptcy, a significant part of these furloughed jobs will simply become full unemployment. In Germany, an economy that has recovered faster than all its European peers, around one million workers remained in these subsidised schemes after almost six months of re-opening the economy.In Germany, the government has also implemented a “bailout of everything” policy to keep the zombie businesses alive. According to the FT, almost 500,000 businesses in Germany can be considered zombie (unable to pay their interest expenses with operating profits). If the crisis remains for more months, as it seems, the cost of furloughed jobs will be unbearable for governments and the employment drama will unravel just at the time in which the insolvency issues start to appear in banks and companies.Furloughed job schemes only work as a temporary measure if strong policies to protect the business fabric and strengthen the private economy are implemented at the same time. Unfortunately, many governments in Europe like the Spanish, where unemployment is 16.2% even without counting furlough schemes, have only used these programs to “hide” unemployment and no significant measure has been implemented to help businesses thrive, attract capital and strengthen job creation.
Lagarde Is Prepared to Add Stimulus, Cut Rates to Support European Recovery – WSJ - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the bank is ready to inject fresh monetary stimulus to support the eurozone’s stuttering economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, including by cutting a key interest rate further below zero. Speaking in an interview ahead of The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, Ms. Lagarde warned that Europe’s economic recovery looks “a little bit more shaky” amid a second wave of infections in countries like France and Spain. She said output wouldn’t return to pre-Covid levels until the end of 2022, and the world’s central banks would need to continue to provide stimulus to support government spending. “We are prepared to use all the tools that will produce the most effective, efficient, and proportionate outcome,” Ms. Lagarde said. The ECB has so far opted against cutting its key interest rate further below zero this year, even as it has unveiled around $3 trillion of new monetary stimulus, including large-scale bond purchases and cheap loans for banks, that roughly matched the Federal Reserve. The ECB’s key interest rate currently stands at minus 0.5%. Other major central banks including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England have also avoided pushing interest rates below zero to combat the crisis. Banks have long complained that the ECB’s negative interest rates eat into their profits because they generally haven’t been able to pass them on to customers.Ms. Lagarde acknowledged that the ECB currently considers other policy tools to be more effective than a rate cut. But she stressed that the ECB hasn’t yet reached the point where a fresh interest-rate cut would do more harm than good, known to economists as the reversal rate.
School occupations continue in Greece as students resist government blackmail and violence - Thousands of students demonstrated last Thursday in several Greek cities, including Athens and Thessaloniki, against the right-wing Greek New Democracy (ND) government’s criminal handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “The mask is not the only protection–spend money on education!” And “We are not costs, we are the future!” were some of the slogans chanted and displayed on banners. Along with the protests, general assemblies and protest actions were organised at schools. Since the homicidal reopening of schools two weeks ago, students, with the support of parents and teachers, have been fighting against the attempt to force them back into dilapidated school buildings, where they face the deadly threat of the coronavirus without adequate protection. According to the Education Ministry, 141 schools have either been partially or fully closed due to coronavirus outbreaks. Hundreds more schools have been occupied by students. Pupils are demanding much smaller classes with a maximum of 15 students, more teachers and cleaners, shorter lesson times, the use of additional buildings, as well as safe, affordable and regularly-operating transportation. Growing numbers of students are participating in the protests. Universities are supposed to open over the coming days in spite of rapidly increasing coronavirus figures in Greece. On Monday, students occupied the president's office at Aristotiles University in Thessaloniki to demand safety measures, including restrictions on numbers of students, the making available of additional buildings and lecture halls, free coronavirus testing, and the hiring of more teaching staff and cleaners. The readiness of the students to fight has taken the government by surprise. Hundreds of the 700 schools originally occupied remain under occupation. The government is attempting to suppress the movement with brutal force so that it does not spread to the entire working class. They are not only relying on media propaganda and right-wing agitation to do this, but are also employing blackmail and physical violence.
UK plans to detain refugees on prison ships --Britain’s Tory government is drawing up proposals to remove migrants and asylum seekers to remote offshore locations—either within other countries or in UK waters—the moment they reach the UK.Documents seen by the Financial Times, the Times and Guardian reveal that the government’s “hostile environment” against immigrants and asylum seekers is to be stepped up with a raft of sadistic proposals.Under one of these, asylum seekers would be sent to the Ascension Islands, a volcanic rock in the Atlantic 4,000 miles away from Britain. Other locations under consideration include Moldova, Morocco and Papua New Guinea, with detailed “cost estimates” submitted for each, according to theGuardian.Asylum policy will be closely modelled on the Australian system of “remote detention”, the leaked documents make clear, with refugees forcibly sent to offshore islands. The Australian policy—described chillingly as the “Pacific Solution”— has been enforced by successive Labor and Liberal governments since 2001. Australia’s refugee prison camps have been condemned by refugee and human rights organisations. In the years from 2010 to January 2019 there were 37 deaths in its detention centres, both at “offshore” facilities on Manus Island and Nauru and “onshore” camps on the mainland and Christmas Island, an Indian Ocean outpost. Commenting on the UK documents, Rossella Pagliuchi-Lor, UK representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said, “This is the Australian model and I think we have already seen that the Australian model has brought about incredible suffering on people who are guilty of no more than seeking asylum.”
‘Exhausted’ teachers warn they have no additional funding to handle Covid-19 - Headteachers have warned they do not have enough funding from the government to meet the extra costs of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving school budgets “in the lap of the gods”.The new president of the National Association of Headteachers (NAHT), Ruth Davies, said schools are being expected to implement Covid safety arrangements “without any additional funding at all”, placing pressure on “exhausted” school leaders.She called on the government to provide money for items such as personal protective equipment, extra cleaning, more staff and the physical adaptations made to schools. “It’s all having to be met from existing funds, which already have gaps.” ‘Headteachers don’t know from one day to the next what level of staffing they are going to have’: Ruth Davies, president of the National Association of Headteachers. Photograph: NAHT There is a particular problem with staffing costs, said Davies, as the “unreliable” test and trace system means teachers are having to self-isolate unnecessarily, waiting for results. “Headteachers don’t know from one day to the next what level of staffing they are going to have.”Government guidance is “vague at best, and often changes overnight”, with school leaders working 70-hour weeks to try to keep up, Davies said.The NAHT also called on Ofsted to drop plans to restart inspections in England in January, as they would be neither “fair nor useful”, Davies said. “It’s not just wondering what it is that Ofsted will be going in to inspect, but it’s also the unnecessary additional burden it places upon schools,” she said. “The profession has been sidelined. The government has refused to talk to us. We’ve asked to meet Ofsted and the response has been either nothing or just rejecting our offers.”A Department for Education spokesperson said: “On average, costs to schools to become Covid-secure will have been a relatively small proportion of their core funding. On top of that our £1bn Covid catch-up fund has flexible funding to help all their pupils make up for lost learning.”The spokesperson added: “Ofsted has started to visit schools to discuss how they are managing the return to education, including how expectations on remote education are being met. These will not result in a judgment. We intend to restart routine inspections from January. However this date is being kept under review.” An Ofsted spokesperson said: “In the spirit of openness, we consulted extensively with education unions – including the NAHT - throughout our planning for the autumn term. We have set out our intention to resume regular inspections in January, and will keep this under review during the Autumn term.”
UK students denounce dangerous conditions in universities and halls of residence - University students across the UK have spoken to the WSWS, and posted on social media, detailing the appalling conditions they face after returning to campus amid a resurging pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of young people, many leaving home for the first time, were told to move to university halls of residence. Many have now been locked down or told to self-isolate in cramped and expensive rooms, left short of food and support and denied the right to return home. Students and educators protested that students were being scapegoated, while universities and private developers pocketed rental incomes. On average, students pay around £150 a week for university accommodation, roughly £6,000 for a 40 to 42-week academic year—in London, the average is closer to £8,000. Ben, an Arabic and Middle Eastern Studies student at Exeter University, noted, "I think they're using us as a cash cow by charging us full rates for a service that is half-quality at best, while simultaneously scapegoating us for the rise in cases due to their own ineptitude." Steve, a third-year student at Sheffield, said, "We've had the most students in the past three years, it's hard to socially distance and there's so many cases. It's totally for profit." A department head at York university, Helen Smith, tweeted, "Repeat after me: if you bring students from all over the UK (and beyond) and put them together in halls of residence, it is not okay to blame *them* when they contract COVID-19." One parent tweeted, "My son's student residence already has a confirmed case of COVID-19 and uni hasn't even started yet. It's going to be a disaster.” Some students stayed at home. Others fear that if they return home now, they will endanger their families.
University and College Union moves to prevent strikes as COVID-19 cases surge on UK campuses - Northumbria University in Newcastle moved to temporary online learning Wednesday, following an emergency call for an industrial action ballot by lecturers and staff. The proposed strike was in opposition to the disastrous and homicidal conditions of the reopening of universities amid the coronavirus pandemic. The University of Newcastle followed suit, with both universities imposing distance learning measures for three weeks. The two universities combined have recorded over 1,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among students and staff. Newcastle upon Tyne, located in England’s North East, is one of the areas hardest hit by COVID-19 in the country, with 1,227 new cases in the city in the seven days to October 5. Manchester University, Manchester Metropolitan, Sheffield University, Sheffield Hallam, and Exeter universities have also been forced to scuttle their lecture hall teaching plans and moved to online learning. Northumbria University’s decision to move online prompted the University and College Union (UCU) leadership to ditch within 24 hours its members’ unanimous October 7 vote to ballot for strike action. Immediately following the vote, UCU General Secretary Jo Grady commented, “Our members do not want to take industrial action, but this is a matter of life and death. Unless the university changes course immediately, and moves to online learning as the default position, we will be balloting for industrial action.” When university management moved to online learning, the UCU called off organizing a strike ballot.
Brexit: Running the Clock Down - Yves Smith -On Monday, the Brexit negotiations entered a two-week, supposedly intensive, supposedly very hush-hush phase intended to achieve significant progress. That’s because the gaps between the UK and EU positions are so large that any thing other that a very bare-bones deal would require serious horse-trading. However, pretty much everyone except readers of the UK press realizes that the odds are close to nil of anything more than such a minimal agreement that it would be functionally only a bit better than a crash-out. No well informed commentator expects the UK to escape having hard borders with the EU, which in turn creates what economists like to call “non-tariff trade barriers” which can really gum up the works. Remember that participants in talks have strong incentives to play up the notion that the parties are making progress, since a sense of momentum can lead to progress. However, despite some cheery spin, the more substantive accounts underscore that large gaps on fundamental issues like “level playing field” remain. Reuters reported significant progress on “social security rights” and also said the EU had agreed to a longer negotiating runway by allowing them to go until mid-November, as opposed to the earlier end of October cutoff. However, the article also pointed out the biggest issues were still unresolved: There was no breakthrough in last week’s negotiations on the three most contentious issues – fisheries, fair competition guarantees and ways to settle future disputes – but the prospects of an overall accord looked brighter. “We seem to be getting closer and closer to a deal, even though the no-deal rhetoric in public might suggest the opposite,” Contrast the Reuters account with Bloomberg’s take: The European Union has no plans to offer concessions to Boris Johnson before next week’s Brexit deadline, betting that the U.K. prime minister won’t make good on threats to walk away from trade negotiations if he doesn’t get what he wants. The bloc is ready to let U.K. talks drag on into November or December, and even take a chance on Johnson pulling the plug on the deliberations rather than compromise on its red lines, according to a senior EU diplomat. The high-stakes strategy was confirmed by a second EU official… EU officials say there has been little progress recently and they weren’t impressed by the five compromise text proposals the U.K. submitted last week…. This should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. Indeed, these leaks amount to the EU saying, “Yes, we’ve never been kidding. Our red lines are our red lines. If anyone is going to give ground, it has to be the UK.” Bloomberg further claims that Johnson isn’t budging on timetable, and intends to announce in two weeks that there will be no deal if there hasn’t been “significant progress” by then. One part of the Bloomberg account that seemed surprising was that EU officials supposedly want Johnson to come talk to them:To break the deadlock, the EU wants Johnson to become more personally involved in the process. There is consternation in European capitals that the prime minister has been largely absent from negotiations so far… This makes no sense. Recall that when Theresa May tried meeting the leaders of various EU countries, it was tolerated even though it was viewed as a breach of protocol. The UK was and is negotiating with the EU, not with heads of state one on one. On top of that, Johnson is loathed in the EU, so having him make the rounds isn’t likely to improve the negotiating dynamics.
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