Fed’s Low-Rate Strategy Confronts Concerns over Bubbles – WSJ -- Federal Reserve officials’ promises to hold interest rates very low for a long time could pose a dilemma once the pandemic is over: how to deal with the risk of asset bubbles. Those concerns flared when Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan dissented from the central bank’s Sept. 16 decision to spell out those promises. The Fed committed to hold short-term rates near zero until inflation reaches 2% and is likely to stay somewhat above that level—something most officials don’t see happening in the next three years. “There are costs to keeping rates at zero for a prolonged period,” Mr. Kaplan said in an interview. He added that he worries such a commitment “causes people to take more risk in that they know it’s much less likely that they’re going to be able to earn on savings.” The question of whether the Fed should raise rates to prevent bubbles from forming has long vexed officials. Mr. Kaplan’s concerns show how the lack of consensus could one day sow doubts over the central bank’s ability or willingness to follow through on the new lower-for-longer rate framework Fed Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled last month.The new strategy, adopted unanimously by the Fed’s five governors and 12 reserve-bank presidents, alters how the central bank will react to changes in the economy. The Fed is now seeking periods of inflation above its 2% target to compensate for periods like the current one, when inflation is running below that goal and short-term rates are pinned near zero. This means the Fed will effectively abandon its prior approach of raising rates pre-emptively, before inflation reaches 2%.The Fed’s statement spelling out the new framework included an escape clause of sorts by saying that achieving its inflation and employment goals “depends on a stable financial system.”The Fed’s subsequent Sept. 16 rate guidance alluded obliquely to financial bubbles by saying officials would adjust their current lower-for-longer policy stance “if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the committee’s goals.”Mr. Kaplan said his concerns were reinforced in March after the coronavirus pandemic triggered a near financial panic. “I saw…a lot of forced selling,” he said. “There were just some people who came into this with too much risk.”
Fed Again Faces Heat Over Energy Bond Purchases --The Federal Reserve continues to face pressure over its purchases of energy-sector bonds, with the latest criticism coming from a congressional report last week. The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis said the central bank, as part of its effort to support the corporate credit market during pandemic-related disruptions, is buying too much debt from fossil fuel companies. The report says the proportion of buying is out of whack with the central bank’s stated goal to provide equal support across sectors...
Critics See Bailout in Federal Purchase of Oil Companies’ Debt - The U.S. government has used emergency pandemic aid to purchase more than $355 million in bonds issued by companies in the battered oil and gas industry, according to a report being released Wednesday by critics who say the investments amount to a bailout. The Federal Reserve began buying corporate debt to shore up the reeling economy in March. Some of the acquisitions benefited drillers, integrated and independent refiners, pipelines, and oil field services companies, according to the report, released by the advocacy group Public Citizen along with the environmental groups Friends of the Earth and Bailout Watch. The Fed’s move effectively lowered the risk of the companies’ debt and they responded by issuing $60 billion in new bonds, according to the report’s authors. “The Treasury and Fed have provided a massive safety net for the oil industry, whose business model was failing before the pandemic,” said Alan Zibel, research director of Public Citizen’s Corporate Presidency Project. The aid arrived as American oil producers were experiencing the twin shocks of plunging demand because of the coronavirus and a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia that flooded the market with oil. The price of oil has since recovered to about $40 a barrel and some companies have restarted closed wells. The report examined the Fed’s Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, a program designed to provide liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds, to which the Treasury Department transferred $25 billion to back $250 billion in bond purchases by the Fed, including in some cases “high yield debt” also known as “junk bonds.” Twelve of 19 fossil fuel companies that received Fed investments have since been downgraded by independent credit-rating companies that assess bond risk, said the report. In a statement, the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington-based trade group, defended the program and said it was being used as it was intended. “The Federal Reserve took decisive, economy-wide action to support liquidity and help businesses through the economic upheaval unleashed by the Covid-19 pandemic,” Stephen Comstock, the group’s vice president of corporate policy, said in a statement. “Companies and workers across all industries are benefiting from these efforts.”
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan Lays Out Path for Additional Federal Reserve Aid, If Needed - If the Federal Reserve has to provide more aid to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said Friday he would expect it in the form of an extended lifespan for the central bank’s emergency lending efforts. In a video appearance for The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Kaplan also reiterated what he and his central bank colleagues have said repeatedly in recent weeks: Continued strong support from the federal government is critical to helping the economy and Americans navigate the coronavirus pandemic....
Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.4% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised), and GDP by Industry (Annual Update), Second Quarter 2020: Real gross domestic product (GDP)decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 31.7 percent. The upward revision with the third estimate primarily reflected an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partly offset by downward revisions to exports and to nonresidential fixed investment. From the BEA revision information, here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up to -33.2% from -34.6%. Residential investment was revised up from -37.9% to -35.6%. This was close to the consensus forecast.
Q2 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at -31.4%, Record Low - The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -31.4% (-31.38% to two decimal places), a major drop from -5.0% (-4.96% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -31.7%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 31.7 percent. The upward revision with the third estimate primarily reflected an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partly offset by downward revisions to exports and to nonresidential fixed investment (see "Updates to GDP" on page 3). The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.06% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.26%.
Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: -31.69% Versus the -31.4% Headline Real GDP - The Third Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at -31.4% (-31.39% to two decimals), down from -5.0% (-4.99% to two decimals) in Q1. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -31.69% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale. The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 17.4% below the pre-recession trend (2008). The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is -31.4%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at -31.69%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession and has dropped significantly during the COVID recession.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 1 October - Menzie Chinn - Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for September as of 10/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. IHS/MarkIt provides a projection of the September GDP number consistent with their forecast for Q3: essentially 0% growth in September. So, we are already decelerating rapidly along a number of dimensions, as passage of a pre-election package becomes ever more unlikely. Deutsche Bank’s conditional forecast is zero growth on Q4. With the political — and hence policy — uncertainty possible in the election’s wake, don’t rule out another leg downward in economic activity.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of September 27th. The seven day average is down 68% from last year (32% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through September 26, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." The 7 day average for New York is still off 63% YoY, and down 33% in Arizona. There was a surge in restaurant dining around Labor Day - hopefully mostly outdoor dining. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were at $9 million last week (compared to usually under $200 million per week in the late Summer / early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through September 19th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.9% year-over-year (and that is boosted by fires and a hurricane). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of September 19th, gasoline supplied was only off about 8.9% YoY (about 91.1% of normal). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through September 25th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 58% of the January level. It is at 51% in Los Angeles, and 58% in Houston. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This data is through Friday, September 25th.
The U.S. Economy Was Laden With Debt Before Covid. That’s Bad News for a Recovery. – WSJ - The coronavirus brought an end to the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. That wasn’t the only problem. When the U.S. barreled into the deep downturn that followed, it was laden with debt.Why does this matter? Economies carrying a lot of debt generally have weaker recoveries. Businesses and consumers focus on cutting their liabilities during downturns rather than spending cash—and spending is what an economy needs to rebound. All told, the borrowing spurred by years of low interest rates adds up to $64 trillion in consumer, business and government debt. How much is that? It’s more than triple the country’s gross domestic product. The series of charts below illustrate how we got here and what it means for any recovery. Some kinds of debt matter more than others. The most important piece of a recovery is consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the U.S. economy. High household debt levels tend to lengthen recessions and amplify their severity, according to a study of advanced economies over 30 years by researchers at the International Monetary Fund.Economic growth over the past decade—including big gains in the stock market and in U.S. home prices—has benefited wealthier households the most, while those with lower incomes fell behind. Real median household income fell after the financial crisis and didn’t surpass the inflation-adjusted 1999 record of $61,526 until 2016. Mortgage debt, mostly held by better-paid workers, hasn’t changed much. Lower-income households, by contrast, have increased their borrowing with auto loans, student debt and credit cards. Before the pandemic, the percentage of delinquent auto-loan balances had nearly reached levels last seen in the financial crisis. Middle- and low-income consumers tend to spend more of their earnings, so high debt levels mean they will likely consume less. Businesses have also borrowed at a record pace in recent years, leading some economists to raise alarms last year that high levels of corporate debt during a recession could force companies to slow spending and hiring to repay what they owe—or get simply overwhelmed by their repayments. Rather than use cash to invest in their businesses, many companies bought back stock to boost share prices. Buybacks hit a record $806 billion in 2018, following the tax overhaul that lowered rates for many companies.The quality of corporate debt suffered, with the amount of corporate triple-B rated bonds—the lowest quality investment-grade debt—more than doubling in the past decade. Companies with such ratings risk downgrades, defaults and higher borrowing costs when times get tough.
Democrats Unveil $2.2 Trillion Pandemic Relief Bill - WSJ—House Democrats released a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package that would restore $600 weekly jobless benefits, a last-ditch effort to revive stalled talks with the White House.The roughly $2.2 trillion legislation was unveiled Monday evening, with a vote possible later this week, according to multiple Democratic aides. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Monday evening and the two agreed to talk again Tuesday morning, her spokesman said on Twitter.Democrats say a large package is needed to support American households and businesses still experiencing the economic impacts of the pandemic. Any legislation would face immediate hurdles in the GOP-led Senate, where many Republicans have resisted a large new round of deficit spending and expressed more confidence that the economy is recovering, after a sharp slump earlier this year. “It takes money to crush the virus. It takes money to make the schools safe. It takes money to put money in people’s pockets. And, of course, we want some resources to make sure that the state—that the elections are held,” Mrs. Pelosi said Monday on MSNBC.Many Republican and Democratic lawmakers have pushed for another round of economic stimulus for months, but they have remained far apart on the amount seen as necessary to combat the pandemic that is heading into its ninth month of spreading through the U.S.Lawmakers have been split on the level of weekly unemployment assistance and aid to provide states and cities.Centrist House Democrats wanted to vote on the legislation before House lawmakers leave Washington this week for the October recess. Mrs. Pelosi initially resisted voting on the bill, pointing out that the House had already passed a roughly $3.5 trillion bill in mid-May and was still trying to negotiate with the administration on a path forward. Previously, deals that have passed both chambers have been negotiated ahead of time. Though the legislation appears to have little immediate prospect of moving forward in the Senate and becoming law, several of the centrist Democrats pushing for a new bill are facing tough races and want to show that they have tried to secure more aid money for their districts.
House Passes $2.2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Bill in Absence of Bipartisan Deal—The House passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill Thursday as bipartisan negotiations with the Trump administration dragged on, with Democrats moving forward on their legislation in the absence of a deal with Republicans. The vote had earlier been postponed to give House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin more time to agree on an aid package. But those conversations haven’t yet yielded a bipartisan agreement. “We’re still far apart,” Mrs. Pelosi said Thursday. “Hopefully, we can find our common ground on this and do so soon.” Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Mnuchin spoke multiple times on Thursday. Mrs. Pelosi said Thursday evening she was going to review documents from Mr. Mnuchin, but no deal was likely Thursday evening. The legislation passed 214-207, with 18 Democrats joining Republicans in opposition to the bill.
"BIG Change Here": Airline Stocks Surge As Pelosi Announces "Imminent" Standalone Relief Package - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced on Friday that she will move for a standalone airline relief package following a flurry of layoff announcements. WHOA … PELOSI announces she will move stand-alone airline relief. BIG change here.PELOSI: “As relief for airline workers is being advanced, the airline industry must delay these devastating job cuts.”— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 2, 2020Pelosi urged airlines to delay planned furloughs, as an agreement is "imminent" on government assistance, according to Bloomberg."As relief for airline workers is being advanced, the airline industry must delay these devastating job cuts," she said. Meanwhile, House Majority LEader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), the House may advance the airline bill today. Stocks, particularly airline stocks, bounced on the news - though as @ForexLive notes, "The market is mis-reading this. The newswire headlines hint it's a broader deal but it's airlines only."The market is mis-reading this. The newswire headlines hint it's a broader deal but it's airlines only. https://t.co/9ym4OY1UVL— ForexLive (@ForexLive) October 2, 2020
Government says it will start forgiving PPP loans within days --The federal government is set to begin forgiving emergency loans made to small businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program. But the exact start time for application approvals and whether loans of a certain size would automatically qualify for forgiveness remain uncertain. On Thursday, a spokesperson for the Treasury Department confirmed by email that the Small Business Administration would start approving forgiveness applications for PPP loans this week or early next week. The department and the SBA oversee the program. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Post previously reported the forgiveness plan. An SBA spokeswoman declined to comment on the specific date forgiveness would begin or whether automatic forgiveness would be possible for certain loans. The news comes as bankers grow weary of waiting for the SBA — which opened its forgiveness portal on Aug. 10 — to sign off on forgiveness requests. To date, the SBA has not acted on tens of thousands of applications that have been submitted in the seven weeks since. The $659 billion program was designed to provide emergency funding for small businesses struggling to stay afloat during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic. By Aug. 8, when the program closed, the SBA had approved 5.2 million PPP loans totaling $525 billion. More than $133 billion remains unallocated. More than 100 trade groups, including the American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers of America and the Consumer Bankers Association, sent a letter to lawmakers on Sept. 17 urging automatic forgiveness for PPP loans of $150,000 or less. The coalition estimated a streamlined process would eliminate $7 billion in administrative costs. The ABA and 51 state banking associations sent a similar letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza the next day.Lenders have been pressing lawmakers to resume and revamp PPP, saying they want the streamlined forgiveness process and permission to make new loans to PPP borrowers who show ongoing stress from the coronavirus pandemic.Congress is considering several proposals that would restart the program, but for now it sits idle as lawmakers negotiate over a possible second stimulus package.
Outrage Grows Over Pentagon Funneling $1BN In COVID Relief To Defense Contractor Wish Lists - A coalition of 40 ideologically diverse organizations on Thursday demanded that federal lawmakers investigate allegations from earlier this week that the Pentagon misused much of $1 billion in congressionally appropriated Covid-19 relief funding for what one critic called "a colossal backdoor bailout for the defense industry." The groups' call came in a letter (pdf) addressed to Reps. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) Steve Scalise (R-La.), leaders of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. The push for a probe was prompted by Washington Post reporting that some tax dollars directed to the Defense Department in March for building up U.S. supplies of medical equipment have "instead been mostly funneled to defense contractors and used to make things such as jet engine parts, body armor, and dress uniforms." In addition to a probe, the National Taxpayers Union, the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), Win Without War, and 37 other groups urged Clyburn and Scalise to determine whether Congress should pass a bill suspending the Pentagon's spending authority for the funds, arguing that the department's decision-making "violates congressional intent at minimum, and represents a significant breach of trust with the taxpayers who fund the military's budget and its emergency spending."Win Without War advocacy director Erica Fein said in a statement that "this gross misuse of Covid-19 relief funds provides yet another example of the Pentagon's wasteful, unaccountable spending, which puts the corporate profits of the weapons industry over the lives and well-being of everyday people." "This scandal should be a wake-up call," she added. "The greatest threats to human security cannot be addressed by funneling money into weapons of war. We must resist the corrupting influence of the military contracting industry, stop pouring our resources into the bloated, unaccountable Pentagon coffers, and instead invest in meeting our country's, and the world's, real human needs." The United States continued to lead the world in Covid-19 cases and deaths Friday afternoon. There have been more than seven million confirmed infections and over 203,000 deaths nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University's global tracker. President Donald Trump's administration and Congress have come under fire for inadequately responding to the public health crisis. As the letter the highlights, the Post reported that the Defense Department—which is run by former Raytheon lobbyist Mark Esper—gave at least $183 million to contractors "to maintain the shipbuilding industry" and $80 million to an "aircraft parts business suffering from the Boeing 737 Max grounding." Additionally, the Pentagon gave $25 million to a firm that also "received between $5 million and $10 million" from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP); $3 million to a firm that also received between $150,000 and $350,000 from the PPP; and "$2 million for a domestic manufacturer of Army dress uniform fabric."
New document reveals scope and structure of Operation Warp Speed and underscores vast military involvement — When President Trump unveiled Operation Warp Speed in May, he declared that it was “unlike anything our country has seen since the Manhattan Project.” The initiative — to accelerate the development of Covid-19 vaccines and therapeutics — lacks the scale, and the degree of secrecy, of the effort to build the atomic bomb. But Operation Warp Speed is largely an abstraction in Washington, with little known about who works there other than its top leaders, or how it operates. Even pharmaceutical companies hoping to offer help or partnerships have labored to figure out who to contact.Now, an organizational chart of the $10 billion initiative, obtained by STAT, reveals the fullest picture yet of Operation Warp Speed: a highly structured organization in which military personnel vastly outnumber civilian scientists. The labyrinthine chart, dated July 30, shows that roughly 60 military officials — including at least four generals — are involved in the leadership of Operation Warp Speed, many of whom have never worked in health care or vaccine development. Just 29 of the roughly 90 leaders on the chart aren’t employed by the Department of Defense; most of them work for the Department of Health and Human Services and its subagencies.Operation Warp Speed’s central goal is to develop, produce, and distribute 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January — and the military is intimately involved, according to Paul Mango, HHS’ deputy chief of staff for policy. It has already helped prop up more than two dozen vaccine manufacturing facilities — flying in equipment and raw materials from all over the world. It has also set up significant cybersecurity and physical security operations to ensure an eventual vaccine is guarded very closely from “state actors who don’t want us to be successful in this,” he said, adding that many of the Warp Speed discussions take place in protected rooms used to discuss classified information. Despite the military’s dominance, the chart also includes Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases who was almost fired by Trump in February for warning the public about the growing Covid-19 pandemic. Public health and drug industry officials told STAT that Messonnier and Gen. Paul Ostrowski, her direct superior, serve as the initiative’s main contacts on all questions related to the distribution of an eventual vaccine. One public health official said that Ostrowksi, an expert on military acquisition, defers to Messonnier on matters of public health. The military’s extensive involvement in the development and distribution of a vaccine is a departure from pandemics of the past, but it is fitting for Trump, who has gushed about his love for “my military” and “my generals.” While the military was tangentially involved in public health crises like the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, some public health leaders have raised concerns about what they see as their marginalization during the pandemic.
Top House lawmakers launch investigation into Pentagon redirecting COVID-19 funds -- The heads of several House subpanels on Friday called for the Pentagon to turn over documents into how it used $1 billion in coronavirus relief funds, citing the Defense Department’s use of much of the money to pay defense contractors rather than buy medical supplies. “We are investigating whether the Department of Defense (DOD) inappropriately used hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars appropriated by Congress in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act,” lawmakers wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper. “These funds were intended to prioritize the domestic production and distribution of urgently needed medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE) - many of which are still in short supply - but DOD has reportedly diverted a significant portion of these funds to provide lucrative contracts to defense contractors for non-medical projects.” The letter was sent by the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis Chairman Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.); Committee on Financial Services Chairwoman Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.); Committee on Oversight and Reform Chairwoman Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.); and Subcommittee on National Security Chairman Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.). The Washington Post first reported last month that the Pentagon has used most of the $1 billion on defense contractors rather than medical supplies. The department awarded contracts for jet engine parts, body armor and dress uniforms, among other military equipment, which critics argue is in contravention of the CARES Act stipulation that the funds be used to “prevent, prepare for and respond to coronavirus.” Following the report’s release, the Pentagon defended itself, arguing the money was never intended to be restricted to medical supplies, that it kept Congress fully informed of its plans and that helping the defense industrial bases through the pandemic is an appropriate response to the COVID-19 crisis. The department had also notified Congress in late May that it planned to use $688 million of the funding to shore up the defense industrial base. The lawmakers, however, point to medical supplies and PPE shortages which have persisted more than six months after the Trump administration declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency. While DOD may rightly argue that the goal of its spending was to offset financial distress in the defense industrial base caused by the pandemic, the lawmakers say, the use of CARES Act dollars in this manner “runs counter to Congress’ intent that these appropriations be prioritized to address shortages in medical supplies and equipment.” The lawmakers asked Esper to hand over documents that show how the Pentagon spent its CARES act money, including the recipient of every contract funded by the money, the amount, the date of the award, what was provided and which senior contracting officer signed off on it. They also want to know whether the contract recipient received other CARES Act funding, whether they had relevant past performance with DOD, and “all documents related to the decision to use CARES Act funding to stimulate the defense industrial base rather than to support production and distribution of PPE.”
US military suicides spike 20 percent in 2020 - Suicides in the US armed forces have jumped by 20 percent compared to the same period last year according to the latest Defense Department data reviewed by the Associated Press (AP). The US Army has seen the greatest rise with a 30 percent increase, going from 88 suicides last year to 114. The US National Guard saw a 10 percent spike from 78 last year to 86 this year. This comes after an initial decline in suicides among active duty and reserve soldiers from January through March. There have been 4,231 suicide deaths in the military between 2006 and 2020, accounting for nearly one quarter of all active duty and reserve fatalities during the period. Suicide ranks second behind accidents as the leading cause of death in the military. US Army leaders have suggested that the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic has played a part in the rise in suicides. In an AP interview Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said “We cannot say definitively it is because of COVID. But there is a direct correlation from when COVID started, the numbers actually went up.” Last year was the worst year in the US Air Force for suicides in 30 years. Air Force Chief Gen. Charles Brown told the AP that “from a suicide perspective, we are on a path to be as bad as last year.” Air Force reserves have seen 98 suicides as of September 15. The Pentagon refused the AP’s request to publicly release the 2020 data or to discuss the issue of suicides in the military. US Navy and Marines officials also refused to discuss suicides happening in their respective branches. James Helis, director of the Army’s resilience programs, which focuses on soldier’s mental and physical health, cited isolation, financial disruptions, loss of childcare, and remote schooling as causes for the strain on the rank-and-file.
"Everyone Dies": Elon Musk Says He Won't Get COVID Vaccine, Calls Bill Gates A "Knucklehead" -- Continuing his weeks-long feud with Bill Gates, whom he lambasted days ago for having "no clue" about electric pickup trucks, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has now taken more shots at the Microsoft founder while decrying the idea of taking the coronavirus vaccine during a podcast with Kara Swisher. Musk said on the recent podcast that neither him, nor his children, are at risk of dying from Covid-19 and that, as a result, they would be unlikely to need the vaccine, according to RT. “I’m not at risk, neither are my kids,” he said. Musk said: “This is a no-win situation. It has diminished my faith in humanity, this whole thing… The irrationality of people in general.” He also spoke out against the global lockdowns (again), calling them a mistake and saying only the vulnerable should be in quarantine until after the virus passes. Musk had previously called the lockdowns "unethical" and "de facto house arrest". Speaking about Bill Gates, Musk said: “Gates said something about me not knowing what I was doing. It’s like, hey, knucklehead, we actually make the vaccine machines for CureVac, that company you’re invested in.” Gates had previously said of Musk that he hoped he “doesn’t confuse areas he’s not involved in too much.” When he was asked about the risk of the virus to his employees and their families, Musk responded: "Everybody dies." He continued: “We’ve been making cars this entire time and it’s been great. Through this entire thing, [SpaceX] didn’t skip a day. We had national security clearance because we were doing national security work. We sent astronauts to the space station and back.” Recall, just hours ago, we reported that Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory had the highest Covid case count out of all businesses in its county. The Gigafactory beat out many of the largest casinos in Reno and Sparks - and Saint Mary's Regional Hospital and the VA Hospital.
Yale Prof Calls Trump's COVID Plan, "A Lazy Man's Ethnic Cleansing" - A professor at Yale University made the claim that "#TrumpKilledAmericans" and that coronavirus is a "lazy man’s ethnic cleansing." Timothy Snyder, a Yale history professor, took to Twitter in early September to claim that COVID-19 is a “lazy man’s” ethnic cleansing. In the Twitter thread, Snyder first tweeted, “Coronavirus in America: A lazy man’s ethnic cleansing #OurMalady #TrumpGenocide #TrumpLiedPeopleDied #TrumpKilledAmericans Kushner's team: "because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically."Coronavirus in America: A lazy man’s ethnic cleansing #OurMalady #TrumpGenocide #TrumpLiedPeopleDied #TrumpKilledAmericans Kushner's team: "because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically" https://t.co/TbYZiBlbmX— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) September 9, 2020Snyder linked to an article by Kathrine Eban of Vanity Fair, titled “How Jared Kushner’s Secret Testing Plan 'Went Poof Into Thin Air.'" The article claims the reason Trump did not roll out a national testing plan is that “more testing would only lead to higher case counts and more bad publicity.” The Twitter thread continued with Snyder claiming, “Coronavirus in America: A lazy man’s ethnic cleansing. #OurMalady #TrumpGenocide #TrumpLiedPeopleDied #TrumpKilledAmericans "Senior advisers began presenting Trump with maps and data showing spikes in coronavirus cases among 'our people.'"
US governors told in February that pandemic would get “much worse,” but did not alert public -In a secret Feb. 9 meeting, 25 US governors were told by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield, “The coronavirus outbreak is going to get much, much worse before it gets better,” even as those same governors publicly downplayed the pandemic. The report of the meeting was detailed in Bob Woodward’s recently published book, Rage. Woodward made headlines earlier this month when he published transcripts of Trump admitting that he sought to downplay the pandemic in the eyes of the public. But no attention has been given in the media to the growing evidence, including in Woodward’s book, that Trump’s cover-up involved not just the White House, but both houses of Congress and a wide range of government officials. Woodward says the briefing included National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH) Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, Redfield and “other members of the Coronavirus Task Force” who all “took their seats at a table in a large conference room in Washington” that was attended by “over 25 state governors.” “The coronavirus outbreak is going to get much, much worse before it gets better, Redfield warned. We have not even seen the beginning of the worst, Redfield said, letting his words sink in. There is no reason to believe that what’s happening in China is not going to happen here, he said. There were nearly 40,000 cases in China then, with more than 800 deaths, barely five weeks after announcing the first cases. I agree completely, Fauci told the governors. This is very serious business. You need to be prepared for problems in your cities and your states. Fauci could see the alarm on the governors’ faces. ‘I think we scared the shit out of them,’ Fauci said after the meeting.” Although the author of Rage does not name the other officials on the panel, a Health and Human Services (HHS) press release—which reports the briefing without mentioning Redfield’s warning—says that they were Acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli, HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec and CDC Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases Jay Butler. Not one of the governors among the group of more than 25 who sat through the presentation in Washington D.C. on Feb. 9 reported to news media or to the public that Redfield and Fauci told them, “we have not seen the beginning of the worst” and that “there is no reason to believe that what’s happening in China is not going to happen here.” Instead, the NGA meeting was followed by a campaign of silence, misinformation and lies spearheaded by the White House and President Trump. On Feb. 9, there were a total of 12 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US and the primary concern of the entire ruling establishment was not the dangerous and deadly threat to public health posed by the pandemic but making sure that the truth about it did not get out.
The US Excess Mortality Rate from COVID-19 Is Substantially Worse than Europe’s - The US has 4% of the world’s population but 21% of the global COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths. This column shows that when comparing excess mortality rates, a more robust way of reporting on pandemic deaths, Europe’s cumulative excess mortality rate from March to July is 28% lower than the US rate, contradicting the Trump administration’s claim that Europe’s rate is 33% higher. The US Northeast – the region most comparable with individual European countries – has experienced substantially worse excess mortality than Europe’s worst-affected countries. Had the US kept its excess mortality rate down to the level in Europe, around 57,800 American lives would have been saved.The US has the highest COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths, accounting for 21% of global deaths. Defenders of the US’s pandemic policy record assert that such figures are misleading since reported COVID-19 cases depend on the testing regime and many countries under-count COVID-19-related deaths. Using excess mortality data is a more rigorous way to compare the pandemic’s death toll. Excess mortality counts deaths from all causes relative to what would normally have been expected. This avoids miscounting deaths due to the under-reporting of COVID-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated, or potentially misattributing deaths to COVID-19 that had other causes. Measures taken by governments and individuals may influence death rates – for example, deaths from traffic accidents may decline but suicide rates may rise. Excess mortality captures the net outcome of all these factors. We show that the P-score – a measure of the rate of excess deaths (actual deaths minus ‘normal’ deaths) relative to normal deaths – is preferable to measuring excess deaths relative to population. President Trump has claimed that ‘Europe’1 has had a 33% higher rate of excess mortality than the US. It is unclear what measure of excess mortality and which comparison period he was using – he may have been considering excess deaths per capita. It is also unclear how he defined ‘Europe’ – possibly Italy or Spain were the countries he had in mind in his intended comparison with ‘Europe’.2 Our figures suggest the opposite: Europe had a 28% lower excess mortality rate than the US during March to July, using the most reasonable comparative measure. From end-February to 25 July, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calculates that excess deaths were about 207,000 above ‘normal’. If the US excess mortality rate had matched that of Europe, around 57,800 US citizens would have survived.3 Yet US policymakers had at least four advantages over their European counterparts in countries such as Italy and Spain that should have led to lower excess mortality rates than in Europe:
- First, there was more time to prepare. Genomic evidence suggests that Europe was the source of most infections that became evident in New York in early March. The US administration had three weeks’ more warning given the lag between initial rises in excess mortality in Italy and Spain versus the US Northeast. For the South, West and Midwest (accounting for 83% of the US population), the delayed spread of the virus should have provided an even greater advantage.
- Second, the US has a younger population4 and COVID-19 mortality is significantly correlated with age.
- Third, the US has a lower population density than Europe as a whole and for large conurbations within, and viral spread is greater in more dense populations.5
- Fourth, the later onset should have enabled US authorities to take advantage of rapidly improving medical knowledge and capacity (the nature of the disease, treatment regimes, testing capacity, and the effectiveness of policies such as social distancing and masks).
China Has Purchased Less Than One-Third Of Goods It Promised Under Phase One Deal - President Trump has touted his "historic" US-China trade agreement as a boon for America's farmers. Still, a little more than eight months have passed since the deal was signed, and Beijing has purchased less than one-third of the US exports it said it would buy this year under the agreement. A summary of China's monthly purchases of US goods covered by the deal, derived from Chinese customs (China's imports) and the US Census Bureau (US exports) data, presented by Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), shows China's year-to-date total imports of covered US goods (as of August) were $56 billion, versus the prorated year-to-date target of $115.1 billion. What this means for the prorated year-to-date target as of last month is that China is about 48% below the levels it needs to fulfill the trade deal this year. As for the full-year target of $172.7 billion, well, China has only purchased less than a third. Here is PIIE's breakdown of China's imports by product type, showing Beijing is severely behind in purchases of agriculture, manufactured goods, and energy products.
- Covered Agriculture Products: For covered agricultural products, China committed to an additional $12.5 billion of purchases in 2020 above 2017 levels, implying an annual target of $36.6 billion (Chinese imports, panel b) and $33.4 billion (US exports, panel c). Through August 2020, China’s imports of covered agricultural products were $11.0 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $24.4 billion. Over the same period, US exports of covered agricultural products were $9.6 billion, compared with a year-to date target of $22.3 billion. Through the first eight months of 2020, China’s purchases were thus only at 43 percent (US exports) or 45 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
- Covered Manufactured Products: For covered manufactured products, China committed to an additional $32.9 billion of purchases in 2020 above 2017 levels, implying an annual target of $110.8 billion (Chinese imports) and $83.1 billion (US exports). Through August 2020, China’s imports of covered manufactured products were $41.5 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $73.9 billion. Over the same period, US exports of covered manufactured products were $33.2 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $55.4 billion. Through the first eight months of 2020, China’s purchases were thus only at 60 percent (US exports) or 56 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
- Covered Energy Products: For covered energy products, China committed to an additional $18.5 billion of purchases in 2020 above 2017 levels, implying an annual target of $25.3 billion (Chinese imports) and $26.1 billion (US exports). Through August 2020, China’s imports of covered energy products were $3.5 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $16.9 billion. Over the same period, US exports of covered energy products were $4.8 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $17.4 billion. Through the first eight months of 2020, China’s purchases were thus only at 27 percent (US exports) or 21 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
After Pompeo criticism, Vatican asserts right to go its own way on China (Reuters) - The Vatican’s number two said on Thursday after talks with Mike Pompeo that the two sides’ positions on China remained far apart and firmly asserted the Holy See’s right to pursue an accord with Beijing denounced by the U.S. Secretary of State. Pompeo met Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Foreign Minister Archbishop Paul Gallagher on Thursday on a visit to Rome marked by Vatican irritation over Pompeo’s public criticism of a Holy See accord with Beijing on the appointment of bishops. Vatican officials have said they were “surprised” by Pompeo’s comments, made last month, and particularly that they were published in a conservative U.S. Catholic publication that has called Pope Francis’ pontificate a failure. Parolin, second only to the pope in the Vatican hierarchy, spoke to reporters on the sidelines of a book launch on Thursday night. He was asked if the positions were still distant. “Yes, even though the purpose of the meeting was not to bring the positions closer,” he said.
Census Bureau says count will continue through end of October— The Census Bureau said Friday that its count will continue through Oct. 31, yielding after a back-and-forth battle with a federal judge in California.Late last month, U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh ruled that the decennial count must continue, ordering that the schedule the Census Bureau's attempt to wrap up enumeration was inoperative due to the coronavirus pandemic, and counting should extend until the end of October.Despite Koh’s ruling, the Bureau issued a brief statement on Monday saying that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross ordered the “target date” to “conclude 2020 Census self-response and field data collection operations” was Oct. 5.Koh rejected the Bureau’s decision to cut the count off on Oct. 5, writing that the Bureau was disobeying her original order. She said the Census Bureau was “chaotic, dilatory, and incomplete” in following her original injunction, and issued a clarified injunction, directing the Bureau that it must continue its count through Oct. 31, and publicize its efforts to do so, including texting employees on Friday to inform them.On Friday evening, a release from the Bureau said that it had messaged employees to say the count will go on. “As a result of court orders, the October 5, 2020 target date is not operative, and data collection operations will continue through October 31, 2020,” the message read. “Employees should continue to work diligently and enumerate as many people as possible. Contact your supervisor with any questions.”The final schedule still remains in flux: The government has appealed Koh’s rulings, but a circuit court rejected a plea for a stay earlier in the week. Like much of American life, the decennial count of every person in the country was thrown into disarray by the pandemic. The Census Bureau initially pleaded with Congress to extend deadlines for the count for 120 days.
Trump slashes refugee cap to record low, leaving some families torn apart - The odds of Semere Tekle Tesfatsion's family getting to join him in the United States just got slimmer. The 36-year-old Eritrean refugee has been waiting for his wife and two young daughters to join him for four years. He applied just before President Donald Trump took office and dramatically reduced the number of refugees who can be resettled in the United States. Late Wednesday night, the Trump administration lowered the number even further, just 34 minutes before a statutory deadline to do so. Now, a maximum of 15,000 refugees will be allowed to enter the U.S. in fiscal year 2021 — 3,000 fewer than the ceiling set by the administration for fiscal year 2020, which expired at midnight Wednesday. The 15,000 figure is the lowest refugee cap announced since President Ronald Reagan signed the Refugee Act in 1980. Until the Trump administration, and throughout most of the 40-year history of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, annual targets for admission have averaged 95,000 refugees, with annual admissions averaging 80,000. During his time in office, Trump has cut the number of refugees admitted by 80%. "The program is virtually at a standstill," said Sunil Varghese, policy director at the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP). As of Sept. 25, some 10,892 refugee had been resettled, well below the 18,000 ceiling, according to the U.S. State Department. Refugee resettlement was halted for a few months in the spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but restarted in July. The latest reduction falls in line with all kinds of restrictions that the administration has placed on both legal and illegal immigration since Trump took office. In its statement late Wednesday, the State Department combined the new refugee ceiling with a projection of more than 290,000 new claims for asylum this year. However, asylum seekers and refugees are two different groups. Asylees seek legal status while already living in the United State, while refugees are handpicked by the government after they have been vetted while they are still abroad. Refugees often live in camps in other countries or on their own in tumultuous, often dangerous circumstances, waiting for years to be resettled.
Judge Partially Blocks Trump Administration From Enforcing Visa Ban - A federal judge in San Francisco has blocked the Trump administration from enforcing its ban against many of the biggest U.S. companies bringing in foreign workers under H-1B and other employment-based visas.The ruling applies to workers for companies represented by the plaintiffs in the suit: the National Association of Manufacturers, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and TechNet.Together, the four organizations represent hundreds of thousands of companies, including major Silicon Valley technology employers, significant names in manufacturing and pharmaceuticals, and some small businesses.The order, in effect until the end of the year, is national in scope, though it doesn’t apply to employers not represented by one of the four plaintiffs.“We are competing with the rest of the world to find and develop top talent to support innovation in our industry,” said Linda Kelly, senior vice president and general counsel at the National Association of Manufacturers. “Today’s decision is a temporary win.”John Baselice, executive director of Immigration Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the “ruling against the implementation of these sweeping restrictions on legal immigration is a great victory for American businesses and our nation’s economy.” It isn’t clear how the judge’s order will be enforced, as it would require U.S. consular officers and immigration officials to discern which companies are represented by the plaintiffs. The State Department didn’t respond to a question about how it planned to enforce the judge’s decision.The temporary ban, which Mr. Trump issued in June, bars foreigners on H-1B or other work visas from coming to the U.S. through the end of this year or longer, should the president extend it. Mr. Trump said he took the step to safeguard unemployed Americans, who could take jobs not filled by foreigners.
Horror Stories - IT’S BEEN TWO WEEKS since a whistleblower complaint involving the Irwin County Detention Center (ICDC), an ICE detention facility in Georgia, was first reported inThe Intercept. The complaint, prepared by the advocacy and research organization Project South and sent to officials in the Department of Homeland Security, leaned on the testimony of several incarcerated women and staff nurse Dawn Wooten to paint a picture of wanton disregard for the life and health of the people in custody.The public backlash was broad, swift, and almost completely detached from the bulk of the allegations, fixating on one particularly visceral claim about female detainees being given hysterectomies—the removal of the uterus and potentially other sex organs—without consent or adequate explanation. It was a grisly detail that was instantly distorted into a nationwide conspiracy before any additional reporting could occur. A feedback loop between social media, the take industrial complex, and breathless rewrite media spit out blood-curling conclusions: mass hysterectomies, an indiscriminate ICE sterilization scheme, a eugenics program implemented at high levels of government. Ultimately, none of these contentions could be backed up by any evidence. The hospital where the hysterectomies took place has now said it was the site of only two procedures in recent years, and even assuming this is an undercount, as of now no other facilities have been the target of similar accusations. I don’t doubt that these overheated responses were manifestations of genuine outrage, but I wonder if those most strident in their dismay are aware that hundreds of ICDC detainees are also being sandwiched together during a pandemic, routinely denied Covid-19 tests, that Wooten claims medical requests were shredded and records fabricated, and that detainees with pre-existing conditions are denied treatment and medicine, all under the auspices of the for-profit prison enterprise LaSalle Corrections. All of these alleged abuses are also part of the complaint and, more broadly, the well-documented canon of the country’s detention systems, be they civil or criminal.
ICE Preparing To Make Targeted Arrests In Sanctuary Cities As Soon As This Week -- Immigration and Customs Enforcement will conduct a series of immigration enforcement operations in three sanctuary cities as soon as this week, according to the Washington Post. The enforcement actions, informally known as the "sanctuary op," will first target illegal immigrants in California, followed by Denver and Philadelphia according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The Post is framing it as nothing more than a political messaging campaign. Chad Wolf, acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, probably will travel to at least one of the jurisdictions where the operation will take place to boost President Trump’s claims that leaders in those cities have failed to protect residents from dangerous criminals, two officials said. -Washington Post When reached for comment, ICE spokesman Mike Alvarez said "We do not comment on any law enforcement sensitive issues that may adversely impact our officers and the public," adding "However, every day as part of routine operations, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement targets and arrests criminal aliens and other individuals who have violated our nation’s immigration laws." According to Alvarez, cities which don't cooperate with ICE put agents and the public at greater risk.
Border wall survey underway - Although the City of Laredo passed a resolution against a border wall and were sued by the federal government for access to survey land back in June, they ultimately agreed to allow the federal government to go in and survey land along the city property. Congress appropriated 69 miles of border wall to be built in the Laredo sector. To date, 31 miles of border wall have been awarded to government contractors, but in the coming weeks the remainder of the 38 miles will be awarded to contractors so the border wall construction can begin. “We don’t need a wall,” said Mercurio Martinez III. “We are not completely against walls, walls have their functions, walls have their purpose. We don’t particular feel we need a wall for this area in south Texas.” On Thursday, surveyors were seen working on behalf of the federal government. “They are surveying the land, so they can see all the peaks and valleys of the terrain. They are surveying to see where the creeks are so when they do build their wall they will build it and they will probably build it. Depending on who gets elected.” Council Member for District 3 Mercurio Martinez III has spoken on the matter and says he’s seen designs of the wall but it’s unclear if the design he’s seen will be used here. Officials say contracts have already been given for the building of the wall in phases. The first phase is from the railroad bridge south to the H.B. Zachary Ranch, the second phase is from the north railroad bridge to the Pico Water Treatment Plant, and a third phase from the Pico Water Plant to the Columbia Bridge. “We have agreements in place with the landowners, the city to be doing that work,” said Chief Matthew Hudak of U.S. Border Patrol. “That’s part of the important work our people need to be doing, the engineers, to make sure that when we are talking about the border wall and infrastructure that we get it right. In terms of placement and construction and those are efforts going on in the areas that we’ve already awarded the contracts too.”
Thousands of U.S.-bound migrants cross into Guatemala without authorization (Reuters) - Guatemala invoked special measures for security forces on Thursday, after thousands of Central American migrants crossed the border without authorization as part of a caravan aiming to reach the United States. President Alejandro Giammattei’s declaration gives security forces additional powers to disperse public gatherings in six of Guatemala’s departments, as more Central American migrants are expected to try to enter the country in the coming days. On Thursday morning, more than 2,000 caravan members, many wearing face masks, barged past armed Guatemalan troops at the border, as they sought to escape poverty exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. Guatemalan officials expressed concern about contagion. “We’re talking about a caravan in the middle of a pandemic. The situation is complicated because they broke the health protocols and we don’t know who has entered (the country),” said Guatemala’s migration director Guillermo Díaz. One member of the caravan died in Guatemala on Thursday after falling from a trailer and getting trapped under its wheels, the Guatemalan Red Cross reported. The caravan is the biggest since the coronavirus pandemic hit Central America in March, triggering strict government shutdowns that battered already precarious economies, leading to rises in unemployment and poverty. It is likely to face challenges crossing through Mexico, where President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has deployed the National Guard to the border with Guatemala and dispersed previous caravans under pressure from the United States. Republican President Donald Trump has made cracking down on unauthorized immigration a key part of his platform, ahead of the U.S. presidential election in a month’s time.
Democrats Introduce Bill Addressing Cultural Genocide Against Native Americans -Two lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday addressing previous actions the U.S. government inflicted upon Native Americans.The bill, authored by Rep. Deb Haaland from New Mexico and Sen. Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, specifically addresses the "intergenerational trauma" caused by policies that tore Native American children away from their families and sent them to boarding schools to be educated in white culture, HuffPost reported.The bill, called The Truth and Healing Commission on Indian Boarding School Policy in the United States Act, would create a formal inquiry to document how the government's Indian boarding school policy amounted to cultural genocide as children were prevented from learning Indigenous traditions. Instead, the government forced them to assimilate into mainstream American culture.According to HuffPost, the first-of-its-kind commission would be asked to find ways to improve the public's awareness and incorporate that into public education. That way, future generations of Americans would have a better understanding of the government's former policy and how its consequences continue to affect Native Americans."The Indian Boarding School Policy is a stain in America's history, and it's long overdue that justice is sought for victims of this policy who suffered unimaginable harm and thousands of Native families who remain impacted by this policy," Warren said in a statement. "This is why I'm joining Congresswoman Deb Haaland in introducing legislation to formally investigate the past wrongs of the federal government's practices of cultural genocide and assimilation and to respond to ongoing historical and intergenerational trauma devastating tribal communities today," she added.The issue hits close to home for Haaland, whose grandparents were separated from their family by the policy, HuffPost reports. She is one of only two N ative American women that have ever been elected to Congress.
A Beady-Eyed Religious Fanatic For The Supreme Court --Barkley Rosser - Others may not see what I see when I look at a full-face photo of Amy Conet Barrett, but I see someone who looks like a fanatic to me, although that may be me reading in what I have heard of her views on things, she being Trump’s nominee for the SCOTUS, with GOPsters in the Senate hypocritically ready to put her in there in time to help Trump steal the election.I know we are not supposed to pick on people for their religious views, but she does belong to a weird cult, the Praise for People group, which is not strictly Catholic as many have claimed, but did come out of the Catholic Charismatic movement in 1971 with most of its members Catholic. It accepts such things as speaking in tongues, which is not something generally accepted by most Catholics, generally, something practices by extreme Protestant sects. It also is sexist, with women forbidden from holding leadership positions and with each member having to follow the lead of a “Head.Those defending Barrett claim she is “very intelligent.” I am sure she is, but that does not keep her from being a fanatic. She clerked for the late Justice Scalia, and conservatives want someone like him, but her views are more extreme than his.Of course, she has criticized Roe v. Wade as well as the ACA, with a case on that being heard on Nov. 10 by the SCOTUS. Clearly, this is the issue Dems need to run hardest on in trying to oppose her, which will be hard given that even Sen. Murkowski of AK is thinking of supporting her. As an example of just how extreme she is I note one item, I have seen written about things she has written in academic publications. It is known that she is an “Originalist,” a term Scalia used for himself, which means one tries to rely on the original meaning of a term in a case from when the Constitution was written or when an amendment was adopted. However, what is not so well known is that there are factions among these people, and apparently, Barrett is part of an especially extreme faction that views both the 14th and 15th Amendments as not being legitimate because when they were passed by Congress, the Confederate states were not represented in Congress. Of course, these amendments, especially the 14th, are the foundation of all SCOTUS rulings on civil rights and against discrimination on any grounds.
The ultra-right background of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barr - On September 26, 2020 President Donald Trump nominated circuit court judge Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died eight days before at the age of 87. Barrett is a protegée of the late Justice Antonin Scalia, the longtime leader of the court’s right wing. In the likely event she is confirmed by the Senate this month, Barrett would serve to fundamentally shift the Supreme Court’s ideological balance much further to the right. Barrett’s nomination must be confirmed by a majority in the US Senate. The Republicans now hold a 53-seat majority in the 100 member Senate. Fearing the loss of the Presidency, as well as their majority in the Senate in the upcoming November election, the Republicans intend to ram through her confirmation before the election takes place, or if need be, before many of their terms expire in January. Barrett was born and raised near New Orleans, the eldest of seven children from a devout Catholic family whose father was an attorney for Shell Oil. She graduated from Notre Dame Law school in 1997 and then spent the next two years as a law clerk, first for Judge Laurence Silberman of the US Court of Appeals for the Washington, D.C. Circuit and then for Justice Antonin Scalia of the US Supreme Court, the judge whose deeply reactionary judicial philosophy she had adopted. From 1999 to 2002 she practiced law in Washington, D.C. at a firm that merged into Baker Botts. This firm’s senior partner was James Baker, who was treasury secretary under Ronald Reagan and secretary of state under George H. W. Bush, and who subsequently served as the lead attorney for George W. Bush in the contested 2000 presidential election that culminated in the infamous Bush v. Gore decision. As a junior lawyer at Baker’s firm, Barrett provided research and briefing assistance in the litigation that culminated in the 5-4 Supreme Court decision to permanently halt the vote count in Florida, preserving Bush’s 537-vote lead and thereby giving him the presidency. Barrett’s mentor Justice Scalia was the organizer of that majority. From 2002 to 2017 Barrett worked as a law professor at Notre Dame teaching constitutional law and statutory interpretation. As a Scalia follower, she emphasized originalism in her academic work and in numerous articles that appeared in various law journals. Her work caught the attention of arch-conservatives who would promote her publications and provide platforms for her to espouse her originalist views as well as her provocative view of stare decisis, the principle that courts should be guided by legal precedent, one of the primary obstacles in overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case. Originalism, the basis of ultra-right legal theory for the last 40 years, holds the view that the Constitution does not evolve. Instead judges should decide constitutional questions based solely on the drafters’ original intent.
Trump to Quarantine After Top Aide Tests Positive —President Trump said he and the first lady would begin quarantining while they await the results of their Covid-19 tests, after Hope Hicks, a senior White House adviser who traveled with the president this week, tested positive for the coronavirus.“The First Lady and I are waiting for our test results,” Mr. Trump tweeted late Thursday, after confirming Ms. Hicks’s positive test. “In the meantime, we will begin our quarantine process!”Ms. Hicks traveled with the president aboard Air Force One to and from the debate in Cleveland on Tuesday. She also traveled with Mr. Trump on Air Force One to and from a rally in Minnesota on Wednesday, along with a number of top White House advisers, including Stephen Miller; Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law: and Dan Scavino, deputy chief of staff for communications.Earlier in the evening, the White House had released a schedule for Friday that showed Mr. Trump attending an indoor fundraiser at the Trump hotel in Washington and traveling to Florida for a campaign rally. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a question on whether that schedule would be changed.Ms. Hicks wasn’t tested Wednesday evening, a person familiar with the matter said. She began showing minor symptoms and quarantined during the return flight from Minnesota on Wednesday out of an abundance of caution, the person said. She tested positive Thursday.The White House typically uses a rapid test to assess whether the president and other officials have Covid-19, so it wasn’t clear why Mr. Trump doesn’t yet have results.In a Fox News interview earlier Thursday, Mr. Trump said of Ms. Hicks: “She’s a hard worker, a lot of masks, she wears masks a lot.”He said he and first lady Melania Trump had been tested because they spend a lot of time with Ms. Hicks. “So whether we quarantine or whether we have it, I don’t know,” he said. He later added: “We’ll see what happens.” His tweet announcing he would start quarantining came nearly an hour later. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidance says that a person should quarantine for 14 days after coming in close contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19. “People in quarantine should stay home, separate themselves from others, monitor their health, and follow directions from their state or local health department,’’ the CDC guidance says.
Trump's Health: What A Positive Coronavirus Diagnosis Means : Latest Updates: Trump COVID-19 Results - The coronavirus can be very serious for anyone at any age but is especially concerning for a man of President Trump's age, 74.People 65 to 74 years old are five times more likely than younger adults to be hospitalized and 90 times more likely to die, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Eight out of 10 deaths from COVID in the United States have occurred among older people, the CDC says.And from what's known about his weight, the president may be officially obese, which is considered another top risk factor.That said, many people who get infected with the virus do not develop any symptoms — even many of those with risk factors such as their age and weight. Even when people do get sick, lots of them develop cold or flu-like symptoms that are mild. And many people who develop serious complications recover. So there's no way to predict what's going to happen to any specific individual. "There is quite a broad range for how COVID-19 progresses," said Raj Gandhi, an infectious diseases physician at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School. "Some people with COVID-19 never develop symptoms. For those who develop symptoms, they typically do so at about 4-5 days after acquiring the infection but sometimes it takes up to 2 weeks to develop symptoms." Trump hasn't released as many details about his health as previous presidents have. But his doctors have said that despite his age and weight, he is in excellent health. Trump takes medication to lower his cholesterol, but his doctors haven't reported any other health problems that would increase his risk, such as diabetes, heart disease or high blood pressure. First lady Melania Trump is 50, so she's not in as high a risk group as the president. She underwent a procedure for a benign kidney condition in 2018, but isn't known to have any health problems that would put her at increased risk.The White House says the president and first lady are feeling well, but the coronavirus can affect people in many different ways. Some people start to feel sick within days. Other people feel fine for longer before developing symptoms. Still others are sick for a while and then seem to be getting better, only to suddenly crash and get seriously ill. That's what happened, for example, to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson eventually recovered, but only after receiving intensive care.
Trump experiencing 'mild symptoms' after coronavirus diagnosis - President Donald Trump was experiencing "mild symptoms" after testing positive for the coronavirus, NBC News reported Friday morning, citing a White House official. The news came hours after the president disclosed over Twitter that he and first lady Melania Trump had tested positive. Trump is "in good spirits," and spoke Friday morning to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, according to NBC News. The White House is discussing whether Trump will address the country in some manner about his diagnosis. Trump, who is 74 years old and overweight, is in categories of people considered high at risk for adverse effects from the disease. Vice President Mike Pence and his wife both tested negative for the virus, the White House announced later on Friday. Pence is next in line for the presidency. White House physician Dr. Sean Conley said in a memo early Friday that he expects Trump to "continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering." A White House official told CNBC some staffers who were in contact with the president on Thursday are working from home on Friday. Trump said in his early morning tweet Friday that he and his wife were beginning their quarantine process after the positive test. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines recommend people who believe they may have been exposed to the virus should quarantine for 14 days. Trump debated Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday and is scheduled to appear in the second debate on Oct. 15, 13 days after he disclosed his diagnosis. The Commission on Presidential Debates didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on how Trump's diagnosis would impact the debates.
Nuclear Doomsday Planes Take Flight As Trump Contracts COVID - President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday morning. Around the time the news broke, planespotters on social media reported two Boeing E-6B Mercury planes flying on either side of the US mainland's coasts. The Pentagon uses the E-6B as airborne nuclear mission-control, commanding a fleet of the Navy's Ohio class nuclear-powered submarines, armed with nuclear ballistic missiles, in US waters and or around the world. "There was speculation the airborne command posts were deployed as a warning to any of America's enemies after news broke of Trump's positive test for the novel coronavirus," Fox News said. Fox News continued, "while military planes generally turn off their transponders in order to avoid being tracked, the two E-6Bs in the air early Friday morning had left theirs on, with the assumption being that their crews want to be seen." Tim Hogan, an American open-source intelligence analyst, tweeted: There's an E-6B Mercury off the east coast near DC. I looked because I would expect them to pop up if he tests positive. It's a message to the small group of adversaries with SLBMs and ICBMs. Hogan said: Here's another E6-B that just popped up visible on MLAT on the west coast. IMO Stratcom wants them to be seen.Hogan said the E6-Bs have the "ability to order the killing of everyone on earth if someone attacks the US with nukes in a first strike. It can talk to our missile subs underwater even if DC is gone." The Navy has 16 of these planes, and it's not uncommon for two to be flying at the same. However, the timing of Friday's flights is noteworthy.
Trump Faking Covid- Michael Moore, Other Leftists Peddle New Conspiracy Theory - Filmmaker Michael Moore peddled a conspiracy theory on Thursday night, suggesting that President Trump might be "lying about having COVID-19" in order to "gain sympathy." "He’s an evil genius and I raise the possibility of him lying about having COVID-19 to prepare us and counteract his game," Moore posted to Facebook, just hours after President Trump announced his positive test result "He knows being sick tends to gain one sympathy. He’s not above weaponizing this." "Democrats, liberals, the media and others have always been wrong to simply treat him as a buffoon and a dummy and a jackass. Yes, he is all those things. But he’s also canny. He’s clever. He outfoxed Comey. He outfoxed Mueller. He outfoxed 20 Republicans in the GOP primary and then did the same to the Democrats, winning the White House despite receiving fewer votes than his opponent," Moore continued. Moore also suggested (in all caps): "HE MAY USE THIS TO PUSH FOR DELAYING/POSTPONING THE ELECTION." And "He may use his Covid as a pretext to drop out of the race and move Pence to the top of the ticket. Pence would temporarily become President, and then Pence could pre-emptively pardon Trump for all of his crimes." Meanwhile, as Summit News notes, the 'Trump faking it' conspiracy theory is gaining steam.
Update from White House doctor on Trump's COVID-19 treatment - The White House on Friday afternoon released an update on President Trump's treatment for COVID-19 from his physician Sean Conley.The doctor revealed that Trump has been treated with one dose of Regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail, as well as zinc, vitamin D, the antihistamine famotidine, melatonin and aspirin.Conley wrote that Trump is in "good spirits" though "fatigued" but did not detail his other symptoms, which have been described by the White House as "mild.""He's being evaluated by a team of experts, and together we'll be making recommendations to the president and first lady in regards to next best steps," the doctor wrote.The memo follows another from earlier in the day that revealed Trump and first lady Melania Trumpplan to quarantine within the White House after testing positive for COVID-19. Read the full letter below. (embedded)
Three White House reporters test positive for COVID-19 - Three White House reporters tested positive for COVID-19 Friday after President Trump confirmed he was diagnosed with the coronavirus earlier in the day. The White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) said in a letter to White House reporters that the three unidentified individuals had all been at the building within the last week and that the White House Medical Unit is beginning the process of contact tracing for each person. The WHCA added that several White House journalists are self-isolating pending testing. “Due to cases linked to the pools last weekend and the large number of press credentialed for the 9/26 Rose Garden event, we ask that if you were on the White House grounds or in the pools those days, that you pay extra attention to any changes in your health,” said WHCA President Zeke Miller. Miller told reporters that the White House has committed to testing journalists who were on Air Force One in the last week this coming Monday and that the WHCA is “strongly [encouraging] other journalists who may have been exposed this week to avail themselves of other testing options, through their local health department, personal physician, employer or other accommodation before returning to the White House complex.” “For seven months, we have been clear-eyed about the inherent risks in fulfilling our obligation to keeping the American public informed. Today those risks are more evident than ever, but our work is only growing more vital,” he said. The WHCA said it is “insisting” that that reporters who are not part of the White House press pool and do not have enclosed workspaces refrain from going to the White House. The association also urged people to wear masks in shared spaces, telling reporters to “minimize risk” when not at the building.
Amy Barrett Infected With COVID-19 Months Ago, Tested Negative Friday -Notre Dame President Father John Jenkins, who traveled to the White House on Saturday to attend the press briefing announcing Judge Barrett as Trump's SCOTUS nominee, has tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19, according to media reports citing a memo that was sent out to ND students Friday. BREAKING: Notre Dame President Fr. John Jenkins, who was at the WH SCOTUS announcement on Saturday and was criticized for not wearing a mask and shaking hands, has tested positive for COVID-19.This was just sent out to the campus.Unclear if he had it during the WH event. pic.twitter.com/2cR4eaVMzb According to several sources, Judge Amy Coney Barrett has already had COVID-19, and has tested negative many times, virtually assuring that she wasn't infected, and likely didn't infect the president, or the president of her alma mater (as well as where she teaches), per the Washington Post.Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett was diagnosed with the coronavirus earlier this year but has since recovered, three officials familiar with her diagnosis told The Washington Post.Two of the officials said she tested positive for the virus in the summer. All of the people spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose her medical condition.As the Supreme Court nominee, Barrett is now tested daily and most recently had a negative diagnosis for covid-19 on Friday morning, according to deputy White House press secretary Judd Deere. Deere said she was last with President Donald Trump, who has tested positive for the virus, on Saturday, at her Rose Garden ceremony announcing her nomination to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Barrett has been on the Hill at least three times this week, meeting with roughly 30 senators in one-on-one meetings to discuss her nomination.“She is following CDC guidance and best practices, including social distancing, wearing face coverings, and frequently washes hands,” Deere said.Unfortunately, this adds little insight into how President Trump was infected.
GOP Sen. Mike Lee Tests Positive For COVID-19 - Sen. Mike Lee has become the latest GOP lawmaker to test positive for COVID-19, according to a statement from the Senator. pic.twitter.com/V3kSLogoDP — Mike Lee (@SenMikeLee) October 2, 2020 Lee, whose mask use on the Hill was described as "inconsistent" by one reporter, met with Barrett on Tuesday, though she tested negative Friday. Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Judiciary Committee member, is positive for COVID - and will remain isolated for the next 10 days. As @NBCNews Cap Hill team reports, Lee met with Judge Barrett on Tuesday. His mask use on the hill could be described as inconsistent at best. Without Lee, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the GOP might have more trouble voting Barrett's nomination out of committee. His colleague Lindsey Graham, who is also on the Judiciary Committee, wished Lee a "speedy recovery".Talked to Senator Lee earlier today and wished him a speedy recovery. Look forward to welcoming him back to the @senjudiciary to proceed with the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barret on October 12. https://t.co/OVm0OQbnQF— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) October 2, 2020 This photo of Lee standing just feet from Barrett, with both mask-less and indoors, has been circulating.Sen. Mike Lee just announced he tested positive for COVID-19. Here he is indoors, no mask, less than 6 feet from the SCOTUS nominee, just a few days ago. https://t.co/LIJQoDuTlO — Elise Foley (@elisefoley) October 2, 2020And this footage of Lee greeting supporters while holding his mask in his hand is also being widely shared by MSM reporters and their activist allies. Ah, yes, the best place for your mask as you hug and kiss and greet multiple people is IN YOUR HAND pic.twitter.com/xNDl1Z1fEK
Republicans vow no delay on Barrett, but virus spreads in GOP — Senate Republicans insisted Friday they have no plans to delay Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation — but two key members of the Senate Judiciary Committee tested positive for the coronavirus and Washington was roiled by a possible outbreak. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Friday morning said the chamber intends to move “full steam ahead” on Barrett’s nomination. And the Judiciary Committee will proceed with hearings later this month, according to a GOP aide, though some portions of it may be conducted remotely.But hours after President Donald Trump announced he had contracted the virus and later moved to Walter Reed military hospital, Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said they had tested positive, too. Both are critical members of the Judiciary panel and attended a ceremony for Barrett on Saturday at the White House. They also both met with Barrett this past week and attended committee meetings and party lunches later in the week where they may have infected other senators.In his statement, Lee said he planned to quarantine for 10 days and expected to be able to provide support for Barrett in the committee."I have spoken with Leader McConnell and Chairman Graham, and assured them I will be back to work in time to join my Judiciary Committee colleagues in advancing the Supreme Court nomination," Lee said. Tillis similarly said he plans to self-isolate for 10 days, but said he has no symptoms and feels well.Republican senators are eager to hold a confirmation vote on the floor before the Nov. 3 election, despite outrage from Democrats who say the winner of the upcoming election should fill the vacancy left by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is scheduled to begin hearings for Barrett on Oct. 12, and is planning to hold a committee vote on the nomination on Oct. 22. On that timeline, both Lee and Tillis would be present for hearings and a committee vote.But the virus' spread is already having some impact on Republicans' efforts.The Judiciary Committee postponed a mark-up scheduled for next week after Lee's announcement, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter.On Friday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Dianne Feinstein(D-Calif.) called on McConnell and Graham to postpone Barrett’s hearings due to the possibility of an outbreak among senators. “It is premature for Chairman Graham to commit to a hearing schedule when we do not know the full extent of potential exposure stemming from the president’s infection and before the White House puts in place a contact tracing plan to prevent further spread of the disease,” Schumer and Feinstein said in a joint statement.
Trump COVID-19 updates: President heads to Walter Reed hospital – President Donald Trump arrived at the hospital Friday after he and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19, raising fresh questions about the president's health. Trump, 74, went to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, in what aides said was a precautionary move. Officials said they expected him to be there for a few days. Trump boarded Marine One, the presidential helicopter, en route to Walter Reed, which is about 9 miles away from the White House, in his first public appearance since he tested positive for the coronavirus. Wearing a mask and a navy suit and blue tie, he gave reporters the thumbs up as he walked across the lawn but did not stop to take questions. In taped remarks before his departure, Trump tried to assure the public that he and the first lady were doing well. "I'm going to Walter Reed Hospital, I think I'm doing very well, but we're going to make sure that things work out," Trump said. "The first lady is doing very well. So thank you very much. I appreciate it." White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said the president "remains in good spirits, has mild symptoms, and has been working throughout the day." "Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of his physician and medical experts, the President will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days. President Trump appreciates the outpouring of support for both he and the First Lady," she added. The president's diagnosis, which he tweeted just before 1 a.m. on Friday, sent shockwaves through Washington and across the country, causing markets to plummet just weeks before the presidential election. The president received a single 8 gram dose of Regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail as a precautionary measure, according to a memo from White House physician Dr. Sean Conley. The antibody cocktail is being studied in four late-stage clinical trials and its safety and efficacy have not been fully evaluated by any regulatory authority, the company said on its page. The president also has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin, Conley said. "As of this afternoon, the President remains fatigued but in good spirits," Conley said, according to the memo. Conley said the first lady was experiencing only a "mild cough and headache." He added that other members of the president's family are well and tested negative for COVID-19.
Confusion, concern infiltrate White House as Trump heads to hospital - Inside an eerily quiet White House Friday morning, a barebones staff scrambled to contain the fallout from a nightmare scenario: President Donald Trump and his wife Melania hobbled by the coronavirus in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign.Trump spent the morning quarantined in the residence with his wife, calling key senators and consulting in-house doctors about his symptoms, which included fatigue and cold-like congestion, according to a senior administration official. But he remained silent publicly throughout the morning and afternoon, causing some concern. And by Friday evening, he was being transferred to Walter Reed hospital for the coming days “out of an abundance of caution,” according to the White House.As the president's diagnosis ricocheted through the West Wing, daily meetings were converted to conference calls and White House officials were advised not to come in. Among those who arrived at work anyway, many wore masks as they moved around the executive complex — adopting a preventative measure they previously dismissed. Vice President Mike Pence, who would take over for the president if he becomes incapacitated, remained at home but soon announced he would resume his campaign schedule after testing negative.At the Trump campaign’s headquarters in the Washington suburbs, a morning meeting was canceled and aides were advised by Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien to stay home if they felt they may have been exposed to the virus themselves. Some staffers who were in close proximity to the first family at the presidential debate earlier this week nevertheless reported for work, while others left the office shortly after receiving Stepien’s memo.“There’s a pretty good number of people here,” said one senior campaign official working from the Arlington, Va., campaign office Friday morning.Campaign officials and Trump aides who were contacted by the White House Medical Unit as part of contact tracing measures were asked to report for testing early Friday afternoon, while others who believed they may have been at risk of exposure were left to procure coronavirus tests on their own. The Friday confusion was largely reflective of the haphazard protocols White House officials have grown accustomed to in the last few months, as the president has crisscrossed the U.S. to rally with thousands of maskless supporters and used the executive complex to host large ceremonies flaunting social distancing guidelines. Some officials expressed concern about the startling lack of contingency planning, particularly after witnessing the scramble that ensued earlier this summer when Pence spokesperson Katie Miller, who is married to the president’s top policy adviser, tested positive immediately after traveling with the vice president and interacting with other staffers.
Former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway tests positive for COVID-19 — Kellyanne Conway, who left her role as a senior counselor in the White House at the end of August, has tested positive for COVID-19, she announced on Twitter Friday night. "My symptoms are mild (light cough) and I’m feeling fine. I have begun a quarantine process in consultation with physicians," she said. Conway is the latest person in President Donald Trump's orbit to test positive after both he and first lady Melania Trump received diagnoses. Two Republican senators and another White House staffer also tested positive. White House adviser Hope Hicks tested positive before the Trumps, prompting them to quarantine before they got results. The president is currently at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he will remain for a few days working out of presidential offices there. Officials have said he is there out of precaution, but he is feeling "fatigued" and "in good spirits." Conway was present in the Rose Garden on Saturday, Sept. 26 when Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, before a crowd of an estimated 180 people, many of whom were not wearing masks. So far at least seven people who were in attendance at that event have confirmed they tested positive, raising questions about whether it was a "super spreader" event, where the virus may have been transmitted. It may be impossible to determine how Washington officials were infected, though.
Kushner, Ivanka Trump test negative for COVID-19 - President Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner both tested negative for the coronavirus on Friday. White House spokeswoman Carolina Hurley revealed their negative tests hours after Trump said that he and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for the virus. They both also serve as senior White House advisers. “.@IvankaTrump and Jared Kushner were tested again today for COVID-19 and both are negative,” Hurley tweeted Friday morning. They join other White House officials who have also tested negative for the virus following the president's positive test, including Vice President Mike Pence, second lady Karen Pence and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. Ivanka Trump and Kushner both accompanied President Trump to the first presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Tuesday in addition to other aides and members of the president’s family. It is unclear when the Trumps were first exposed to the virus. . The president and first lady tested positive for COVID-19 after news broke that Hope Hicks, one of Trump’s closest aides, had tested positive for the virus. Hicks traveled aboard Air Force One with the president to the debate Tuesday. According to The New York Times, aides first became aware that she had contracted the virus on Wednesday evening. The White House says that aides who spent ample time with the president, such as Ivanka Trump and Kushner, are regularly tested for the virus. It is unclear whether both of the senior aides plan to self-quarantine as a precautionary measure.
Trump campaign manager tests positive for Covid-19 -Donald Trump’s campaign manager has tested positive for Covid-19, dealing another blow to his reelection effort on a day that saw the president and the head of the Republican National Committee report contracting the disease as well.Bill Stepien received his diagnosis Friday evening and was experiencing what one senior campaign official described as “mild flu-like symptoms.” People familiar with the situation said the 42-year-old Stepien plans to quarantine until he recovers.Deputy Campaign Manager Justin Clark is expected to oversee the Trump team’s Arlington, Va. headquarters while Stepien works remotely, though advisers stressed that he would maintain control of the campaign.Stepien’s disclosure means the two heads of the president’s political apparatus have now contracted the coronavirus: RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel announced earlier Friday that she, too, is infected. The news comes at a perilous moment for Trump, with polls showing him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in an array of battleground states and dwindling days to make up the lost ground.After White House adviser Hope Hicks tested positive Thursday, senior members of the reelection campaign underwent tests of their own. Each of the others, including Clark, tested negative.Stepien traveled to and from Cleveland for Tuesday’s presidential debate. He joined Trump and Hicks aboard Air Force One. The campaign manager was also with the president in the White House on Monday. With Trump hospitalized at Walter Reed Hospital as of Friday afternoon, his advisers are rushing to reassess their plans for the final month of the campaign. They canceled plans for a Friday rally in Florida and postponed Saturday rallies in Wisconsin. They have also postponed a West Coast swing next week through Nevada and Arizona. Trump’s diagnosis has thrust his management of the coronavirus to the forefront of the campaign, which he has strenuously tried to avoid. And it has rippled through his political operation: Earlier Friday, Stepien sent a memo to staff saying that anyone “who has had exposure to someone testing positive should immediately begin self-quarantine.”“While we do not believe anyone without symptoms needs to self-quarantine at this time, it is on all of us to continue to exercise the smart judgment and practices the campaign has long encouraged,” he added, including mask-wearing and handwashing.
Next 48 Hours 'Critical' For Trump, White House Official Says : Live Updates: Trump Tests Positive For Coronavirus : NPR -- Conflicting reports emerged Saturday about President Trump's health and the timeline of when he was first tested positive for the coronavirus.Trump is "doing very well," his physician told reporters on Saturday morning, but a source familiar with the president's health later told White House pool reporters, that "the president's vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning." The Associated Press identified that information as coming from White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. The timeline of Trump's diagnosis laid out by doctors in a Saturday news conference was quickly walked back by the White House, raising questions about when the president actually first began experiencing symptoms and receiving treatment for the coronavirus. Speaking outside the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where Trump was taken Friday evening, White House physician Dr. Sean Conley made reference to "72 hours into the diagnosis." That would be midday Wednesday, before Trump traveled to Minnesota for a fundraiser and an outdoor rally.Trump revealed his positive coronavirus test publicly in a tweet at about 1 a.m. Friday. Another physician at the news conference, Dr. Brian Garibaldi, said the president began an experimental antibody therapy "about 48 hours ago," which would be Thursday midday, around the time Trump flew to New Jersey for a fundraiser and before he shared his test results.
Chris Christie Tests Positive for COVID a Day After Saying Nobody Wore Masks in Trump's Debate Prep Room - Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, announced Saturday morning he tested positive for COVID-19, one day after revealing nobody wore a mask while preparing for the first presidential debate with President Donald Trump. Christie announced his diagnosis in a tweet, writing: "I just received word that I am positive for COVID-19. I want to thank all of my friends and colleagues who have reached out to ask how I was feeling in the last day or two." The Trump ally had tweeted Friday that he felt fine and wasn't experiencing any symptoms, but said in his message Saturday that he would be receiving medical attention. Christie said he'd last been tested Tuesday ahead of the first presidential debate, and again Friday morning following Trump's announcement that he had tested positive. Christie appeared on ABC's Good Morning America that day to discuss Trump's interactions before his diagnosis and what precautions the Trump administration took to prevent the virus's spread before Tuesday's debate. "No one was wearing a mask in the room when we were prepping the president during that period of time," Christie said on the show. "The group was about five or six people in total." Along with Christie, the president's debate prep team included former New York City mayor and Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who has since been tested and reported negative results.
Ron Johnson: Senate GOP's third positive Covid-19 case threatens quick Barrett confirmation - - Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin has tested positive for coronavirus after being exposed to someone with the virus earlier this week, according to his spokesman, making him the third GOP senator to test positive in 24 hours and threatening the quick confirmation prospects of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who sit on the Judiciary Committee, tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday -- just days after attending a White House event where President Donald Trump nominated Barrett. Multiple attendees of that event, including Trump, have tested positive in the week since the ceremony, which featured many people not wearing masks and not observing social distancing protocols. Johnson did not attend the Barrett nomination ceremony — where several people appeared to have been exposed to the virus — because he was quarantining from a prior exposure, during which he twice tested negative for the virus, according to the spokesman. Unlike Democratic senators, Senate Republicans meet three times a week for lunch. And while they sit in a large room, they remove their masks to eat and to speak. Johnson, Lee and Tillis all attended Senate GOP lunches this week. If the three senators remain out this month, it would effectively prevent Barrett from being confirmed to the Supreme Court until they return, which could be after Election Day during a lame-duck session. A lame-duck confirmation is a situation that GOP leaders are eager to avoid in case they lose control of the chamber next month.
Sen. McConnell cancels scheduled senate floor votes for next two weeks after 3 senators test positive for COVID-19 - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has canceled Senate votes that were scheduled for the next two weeks after at least three Republican senators tested positive for coronavirus. But McConnell said confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett would go ahead as planned starting Oct. 12. Senators will be given 24 hours notice if floor votes are needed during the two-week period. Senators Mike Lee of Utah, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had all tested positive for COVID-19 as of Saturday afternoon, after attending a Rose Garden event last Saturday at which most attendees did not wear face masks.
Explainer: What happens to the U.S. presidential election if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated? (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and was going into isolation. Trump has mild symptoms, according to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. But the diagnosis, less than five weeks before the Nov. 3 election, has raised questions about what happens if a presidential candidate or the president-elect dies or becomes incapacitated. Here’s how U.S. law and party rules address those scenarios. - Can the Nov. 3 election be postponed? Yes, but that is very unlikely to happen. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to determine the election date. Under U.S. law, the election takes place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four years. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would almost certainly object to delaying the election, even if the Republican-controlled Senate voted to do so. The presidential election has never been postponed. - What happens if a candidate dies ahead of the election? Both the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee have rules that call for their members to vote on a replacement nominee. However, it is likely too late to replace a candidate in time for the election. Early voting is underway, with more than 2.2 million votes cast, according to the U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida. The deadline to change ballots in many states has also passed; mail ballots, which are expected to be widely used due to the coronavirus pandemic, have been sent to voters in two dozen states. Unless Congress delays the election, voters would still choose between the Republican Trump and Democrat Joe Biden even if one died before Nov. 3. If the winner is deceased, however, a new set of questions emerges. Under the Electoral College system, the winner of the election is determined by securing a majority of “electoral votes” allotted to the 50 states and the District of Columbia in proportion to their population. The Electoral College’s electors will meet on Dec. 14 to vote for president. The winner must receive at least 270 of the 538 total Electoral College votes. Each state’s electoral votes typically go to the winner of the state’s popular vote. Some states allow electors to vote for anyone they choose, but more than half of the states bind electors to cast their votes for the winner. Most state laws that bind electors do not contemplate what to do if a candidate dies. In the event of a candidate’s death, the opposing party might challenge in court whether bound electors should be allowed to vote for a replacement, “The most interesting question is really going to be, how will the Supreme Court handle a controversy like this?” But Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School, said he viewed it as unlikely that a party would try to defy the will of voters if it was clear a particular candidate won the election. After the Electoral College votes, Congress must still convene on Jan. 6 to certify the results. If a presidential candidate won a majority of electoral votes and then died, it is not entirely clear how Congress would resolve the situation. The Constitution’s 20th Amendment says the vice president-elect becomes president if the president-elect dies before Inauguration Day. But it’s an open legal question whether a candidate formally becomes the “president-elect” after winning the Electoral College vote, or only after Congress certifies the count. If Congress rejected votes for a deceased candidate and therefore found no one had won a majority, it is up to the House of Representatives to pick the next president, choosing from among the top three electoral vote-getters. Each state delegation gets one vote, which means that even though Democrats have a majority, Republicans currently hold the advantage in a contingent election, as they control 26 of 50 state delegations. All 435 House seats are up for election in November, so the makeup of the next Congress is still unknown.
WATCH: Katie Porter, Squad Members Eviscerate Big Pharma CEOs Over ‘Exorbitant’ Drug Prices - House Democrats—including three Squad members—tore into pharmaceutical industry chief executives during a Wednesday congressional hearing on Big Pharma profiteering, with Rep. Katie Porter verbally eviscerating one CEO for more than tripling the price of a critical cancer drug.Wednesday marked the first day of a two-day House Oversight Committee hearing titled “Unsustainable Drug Prices: Testimony from the CEOs.” Bristol Myers Squibb CEO Giovanni Caforio, Teva Pharmaceuticals CEO Kåre Schultz, and former Celgene CEO Mark Alles all endured nearly four hours of grilling over the price of prescription drugs—which are almost always far more expensive in the United States than anywhere else in the world.Porter (D-Calif.), a former consumer protection attorney, was the most ferocious committee member to address the CEOs. Bringing out her infamous white board, she attacked Celgene’s repeated price hikes for the cancer drug Revlimid, which now costs $763 per dose—in 2005 it cost $215. When Alles attempted to explain that the drug has been approved for new uses, Porter hit back, and hard.“Did the drug start to work faster? Were there fewer side effects? How did you change the formula or production of Revlimid to justify this price increase?” Porter asked. “To recap here: The drug didn’t get any better, the cancer patients didn’t get any better, you just got better at making money—you just refined your skills at price gouging.”Porter has built a reputation for speaking tough truth to power, on issues ranging from defending access to crucial public benefits, to challenging mega-bank CEOs on income inequality, toexposing the pernicious influence of dark money in politics.Toward the end of Wednesday’s nearly four-hour session, three of the four members of the so-called Squad—Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)—slammed the CEOs over what Ocasio-Cortez called the “exorbitant cost” of life-saving medications.Armed with a chart showing the cost of 40 milligrams of Teva’s multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone is more than five times as high in the U.S. as in Britain, Ocasio-Cortez refuted an assertion by Schultz that medications cost more in the United States because American patients have “very broad, and very early access” to new drugs. Citing Teva’s own internal documents, Ocasio-Cortez showed the company was forced to lower prices by European governments—which unlike the U.S. have instituted spending controls—even as it raised prices for American patients. Pressley asserted that “the lack of access to affordable life-saving medicine is an injustice [that] represents an act of economic violence and an attack on the basic principle that healthcare is a fundamental human right,” while Tlaib ripped Schultz for using charitable donations like “a side hustle.” “Your pharmaceutical company makes these so-called charitable donations so you look like you give a shit about sick people,” said Tlaib. “But in reality these are just another scheme by your corporation to make money off of sick people.
Google/Fitbit Will Monetize Health Data and Harm Consumers - The European Commission is conducting an in-depth investigation of the Google/Fitbit deal. A static, conventional view would suggest limited issues from a merger of complements. Yet, as this column outlines, unprecedented concerns arise when one sees that allowing for Fitbit’s data gathering capabilities to be put in Google’s hands creates major risks of “platform envelopment,” extension of monopoly power and consumer exploitation. The combination of Fitbit’s health data with Google’s other data creates unique opportunities for discrimination and exploitation of consumers in healthcare, health insurance and other sensitive areas, with major implications for privacy too. We also need to worry about incentives to pre-empt competition that could threaten Google’s data collection dominance. As the consensus is now firmly that preventing bad mergers is a key tool for competition policy vis-a-vis acquisitive digital platforms, the European Commission and other authorities should be very sceptical of this deal, and realistic about their limited ability to design, impose and monitor appropriate remedies.
Update on Federal Covid-19 Data at HHS: Hysteria on TeleTracking Data Manipulation Unwarranted, but Concern on Palintir Surveillance Oddly Muted - - Lambert Strether - This is a tale of two companies, TeleTracking and Palantir, and their roles in data processing for the United States Department of Heatlh and Human Services. For TeleTracking, my unpopular stance in July’s “Hysteria Ensues as Trump Administration Orders Hospitals to Send COVID-19 Data to HHS, not the CDC” proved out, insofar as anything can be said to have proved out these days). For Palantir, the alpha dog of Surveillance Valley, I’ll do a quick summary of their role at HHS, and add a little speculation. But first, let anybody think that data management in the United States during Covid needed to be jolted out of its Third World-level status, I’ll take a quick look at public health agencies and CDC, states, and hospitals (along with some entertaining hospital whinging). Then I’ll look at TeleTracking, and then at Palantir. First, CDC[1] data. From Politico,”Virus hunters rely on faxes, paper records as more states reopen”: “Public health departments are unable to share data on cases, persons under investigation, laboratory tests and person-to-person transmission with the CDC seamlessly — instead they are forced to rely on a combination of methods: antiquated pen and paper, faxes, excel spreadsheets, phone calls, and manual entry,” a group of nine senators led by Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) wrote to Senate leaders…. [D]isease trackers say they’re drowning in paper reports and using outdated spreadsheets for critical tasks like contact tracing, or determining how many people were exposed to an infected individual. “Our ability to do the detection work we need to do is hampered,” said Raquel Bono, the coordinator of Washington state’s coronavirus response. “We don’t have a single data repository for tracing per se,” she said, adding that record-keeping and reporting is “primarily manual.” That’s playing out nationwide. And even when officials can tap data, like cell phone location tracking, they can’t connect the dots for an up-to-the-minute picture of disease spread. So they comb over unconnected, at times incomplete, bundles of information — including health provider reports of symptoms like respiratory distress or lab test results. Hence, the enormous HHS effort to update and centralize Covid-19 data collection. Second, the States. USA Today, “Former CDC chief Tom Frieden says states should make more COVID-19 data easily accessible“: Frieden recommended Tuesday that states release 15 categories of information deemed “essential” to understanding the pandemic.The categories include things like a rolling average of new cases and deaths, hospitalizations per capita, testing turnaround time, number of contacts of infected people traced within 48 hours, and percentage of people wearing masks in indoor settings such as stores and on mass transit. No state provides all 15 categories of data, only 40% of essential data points are being monitored and reported publicly, and half isn’t made public at all, Frieden said in a video call with reporters. Hence, the enormous HHS effort to update and centralize Covid-19 data collection. Third, hospitals. From WXXI News, “Trump Administration Plans Crackdown On Hospitals Failing To Report COVID-19 Data“: The federal government is preparing to crack down aggressively on hospitals for not reporting complete COVID-19 data daily into a federal data system, according to internal documents obtained by NPR. The draft guidance, expected to be sent to hospitals this week, also adds new reporting requirements, asking hospitals to provide daily information on influenza cases, along with COVID-19. It’s the latest twist in what hospitals describe as a maddening flurry of changing requirements as they deal with the strain of caring for patients during a pandemic.
Hospital chain targeted in one of the largest cyberattacks on US medical systems: report - Universal Health Services (UHS), a large hospital chain, has reportedly been targeted by hackers in what may be one of the nation’s largest cyberattacks on a medical system to date. NBC News reported Monday that computer systems began to crash over the weekend across different locations operated by UHS, which has roughly 400 facilities across the U.S., Puerto Rico and the United Kingdom and employs 90,000 employees, according to its website. One source told NBC News that the breach appears to be a ransomware attack, where hackers use malicious software to lock up computer networks and then demand payment to return access to these systems. The Hill reported earlier this year that hospitals are increasingly bracing for such attacks, particularly with health care facilities being seen as easy prey amid a surge in patients and critical equipment shortages stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. Nurses, speaking to NBC across various UHS U.S. locations, described how the computers began failing and shutting off over the weekend, leaving medical staff to instead turn to pens and pads. And while the medical professionals back up their systems daily, it isn’t done until the end of the day so they were operating on information last saved from Friday, according to the report. Still, while they reportedly still have access to patients’ charts and medication information in paper form, one nurse in Arizona told NBC News that most of their medical system is done online, which has made work even more difficult.
Here's how the ultrawealthy got even richer during the pandemic while millions of Americans faced job loss, hunger, and homelessness - The coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent economic shutdown altered millions of Americans' financial futures — but not always for the worst.In the six months between when the coronavirus shutdowns began on March 18 and September 15, American billionaires have become 29% richer than they were before the pandemic crippled the American economy in March, according to research from think-tank the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS).Elon Musk alone made over $67.4 billion during that period, growing his net worth by 273.8%, according to IPS. Mark Zuckerberg's fortune grew by $49.9 billion (an increase of 83.9%) between March and September, while Jeff Bezos profited so much that in August he briefly became the first person in history with apersonal net worth over $200 billion, per IPS.Though the total number of unemployed Americans has fallen from its April peak, the national unemployment rate is still 8.4%, Business Insider's Carmen Reinicke reported on September 4. At the same time, 29 million adults reported their households sometimes or often didn't have enough to eat in the past week, 15 million renters are falling behind on their payments, and a growing share of furloughed workers fear they may never get their jobs back."One way to think about the current economy is that two trends are soaring pretty solidly upward," economist Dr. Jared Bernstein during a virtual press conference on New York State's wealth tax debate September 10, "one is the stock market, and one is hunger."Many of the largest net worth gains by billionaires are closely tied to their company's performance on the stock market, which has hit record highs despite the turmoil in the rest of the economy since an initial drop in February. The spike in Musk's net worth, for example, was driven almost entirely by a spike in Tesla's share price, which then unlocked various parts of his complex compensation package.Economists fear that billionaires' recent success indicates that while businesses in the technology and retail sectors are rebounding, many businesses that once employed low wage workers in travel, entertainment, and food services might not. "This is a K-shaped recovery, meaning that it is being experienced very differently by those at the top and those at the middle and the bottom," Bernstein said. "The finance sector is currently reaping windfalls."
Trump is using the coronavirus as an excuse to go full kleptocrat, and the GOP is going right along with him Trump and his associates are using the confusion and desperation of the coronavirus to enrich themselves like kleptocrats, and the GOP is going right along with it. We are living in a strange moment. The entire whole world is hanging on to any and every word about a vaccine for COVID-19. The entire world needs the same supplies to get through pandemic. These conditions have created a low information environment where certain goods and information are extremely valuable. It just so happens that those with access to those goods and that information are in the White House. And it just so happens that the people in the White House have no scruples to speak of. From the beginning, Trump has handled the scientific, economic, financial, and logistical challenge of the coronavirus like a kleptocrat would — by keeping things within the family/inner circle. This set up is why kleptocracies are rife with fraud, waste, and incompetence. Those with experience need not apply.Trump's family beneficiary during the pandemic has been his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who was placed in charge of the coronavirus response. Once in charge Kushner then, according to Vanity Fair,hired his friends. He eschewed government agencies with the capabilities to fight the pandemic and conducted his task force's business in secret, off of government emails and other official modes of communication. Secrecy and opacity are a key elements of kleptocracy.That task force prioritized friends of the president when it came to distributing personal protective equipment. Kushner ignored and subverted the needs of Americans in order to reward and punish his father-in-laws friends and enemies. That is what kleptocrats do with resources. While all of this was going on at the White House, Wall Street was starting to experience the kinds of peculiarities one might expect in a market where there is something strange afoot. The one thing linking all of these odd bubbles and distortions was and is the Trump administration. To address these and other market inconsistencies that have resulted from the pandemic, a subcommittee of the House Financial Services committee held a hearing called "Insider Trading and Stock Option Grants: An Examination of Corporate Integrity in the COVID-19 Pandemic" earlier this month. What was shocking about the hearing was not what the witnesses said. Everyone agreed that the pandemic has created irregular conditions in the market, and that some actors are benefiting. What was strange was the petulance from Republicans who insisted — despite the strangeness of our times — that the hearing was completely unnecessary. They did not want more transparency around why, when, or how companies make disclosures related to the pandemic. They did not want there to be more scrutiny around executive share compensation. In short: Nothing to see here.
Trump didn't pay income tax for 10 of 15 years before 2016 election: NYT - President Trump paid no income taxes for 10 of the 15 years before he was elected president, and just $750 a year in 2016 and 2017, according to The New York Times, which obtained the president's tax information for the last 20 years.The Times found that Trump faces hundreds of millions of dollars in debt and struggling Trump Organization properties and that he has taken advantage of a number of write-offs to avoid paying taxes. In a statement to the Times, Trump Organization lawyer Alan Garten said that "most, if not all, of the facts appear to be inaccurate" and reportedly took issue with the amount of taxes the Times reported that Trump has paid. "Over the past decade, President Trump has paid tens of millions of dollars in personal taxes to the federal government, including paying millions in personal taxes since announcing his candidacy in 2015," Garten told the Times. Trump himself also denied the Times's reporting during a press conference on Sunday, calling the story "totally fake news." "The IRS does not treat me well. They treat me like the Tea Party," he continued, referring to claims from GOP figures that the IRS targeted GOP-leaning groups during the Obama administration. The bombshell Times report revealed that the president faces payments on more than $300 million in loans that will become due in the next few years, while revenue from his time hosting "The Apprentice" on NBC has mostly dried up, and he has largely sold his stock portfolio. Trump reportedly made hundreds of millions of dollars from his work and related licensing on “The Apprentice" over the years, which was apparently invested back into Trump Organization businesses. But the Times analysis of Trump’s finances finds those businesses have continued to lose millions, resulting in Trump avoiding payments on income taxes while earning millions from “The Apprentice” due to losses at other businesses. The Times reports that Trump’s tax records show $47.4 million in losses in 2018, despite Trump announcing in a financial disclosure that he made at least $434.9 million. Other details revealed by the Times include that the Miss Universe pageant was most profitable under Trump and generated $2.3 million for him as a co-owner of the pageant. Trump Organization tax records also show, according to the Times, that between 2010 and 2018, it wrote off around $26 million in unexplained “consulting fees.” The consulting fees claimed as tax deductions for hotel projects in Vancouver and Hawaii match the payments Ivanka Trump reported, more than $747,600, from a consulting company she co-owned, according to the Times. Also revealed in Sunday's report was the at least partial scope of Trump's overseas dealings, long a target of government ethics organizations due to concerns that foreign investors could seek to curry favor with the president through his businesses. At least $73 million was made abroad by the Trump Organization during the first half of Trump's term, according to the documents. The Times reports that while Trump paid just $750 in income taxes in the U.S. in 2017, Trump or his companies paid more taxes in other countries, including $15,598 in Panama, $145,400 in India and $156,824 in the Philippines.
Trump spent more than $70,000 to style his hair when he was on 'The Apprentice' and wrote it off as a business expense: NYT - President Donald Trump spent more than $70,000 to style his hair — and wrote it off as a business expense — when he was on "The Apprentice," The New York Times reported Sunday. The Times obtained decades of Trump's tax returns, compiling a much-anticipated report on Sunday that found the president had avoided paying federal income tax for much of the past two decades. The bombshell report included the detail that Trump wrote off haircuts and styling as business expenses and also that nine Trump entities paid nearly $100,000 to Trump's daughter Ivanka's hair and makeup artist. The Times found that Trump avoided paying federal income taxes for 10 of the past 15 years and paid just $750 in taxes in both 2016 and 2017. The tax-return data also showed that Trump's businesses reported major losses and that he avoided paying income taxes "largely because he reported losing much more money than he made," the report said. At a press conference on Sunday, Trump denied the Times report. "It's totally fake news. Made up, fake," he told reporters at the White House. Read the full report by The Times here.
GOP asks Supreme Court to halt mail voting extension in Pennsylvania -- Republicans on Monday asked the Supreme Court to halt a major Pennsylvania state court ruling that extended the due date for mail ballots in the key battleground, teeing up the first test for the high court since the death of its liberal leader Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The filing comes after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled against the GOP in an election lawsuit that could help shape the race between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the Keystone State, which the president won by just over 44,000 votes in 2016. The Pennsylvania court’s decision earlier this month requires election officials to accept ballots postmarked by Election Day, as long as they arrive within three days. The ruling was seen as a win for Democrats, since Biden voters are more likely than Trump supporters to vote by mail in November. In their Monday filing, top officials from Pennsylvania’s GOP-held legislature asked the U.S. Supreme Court to pause the ruling while they formally appeal to the justices. “In the middle of an ongoing election, the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania has altered the rules of the election and extended the 2020 General Election beyond the 'Time' established by the state legislature,” they wrote. “In doing so, the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania has violated federal law and the federal Constitution.” #160;
September 29, 2020 – 5 Federal Courts Have Ruled Against the USPS - Prof. Steve Hutkins at Save the Post Office adds information on court rulings. The Postal Service is now 0 and 5 in the eleven lawsuits filed against it as a result of the mail delays caused by the operational changes that went into effect in July. Yesterday two more orders were against the Postal Service. In Pennsylvania v DeJoy, Judge Gerald McHugh of the Eastern District of Pennsylvania ruled that the Postal Service can’t restrict extra or late trips for mail delivery and can’t prohibit overtime. In Vote Forward v DeJoy, Judge Emmet Sullivan issued his second order against the Postal Service. Here are the five orders that have been issued in federal courts banning the Postal Service from making the kinds of operational changes that caused delays over the summer:
- Pennsylvania v DeJoy, Judge Gerald A. McHugh, Pennsylvania Eastern District Court (Sept. 28, 2020)
- Vote Forward v DeJoy, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, District Of Columbia District Court (Sept. 28, 2020)
- New York v USPS, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, District of Columbia District Court (Sept. 27, 2020)
- Jones v USPS, Judge Victor Marrero, New York Southern District Court (Sept. 25, 2020)
- Washington v Trump, Judge Stanley A. Bastian, Washington Eastern District Court (Sept. 17, 2020)
As a result of these five preliminary injunctions, the Postal Service has had to walk back all the changes it made over the summer as well as making all sorts of commitments about what it will do to ensure timely delivery of mail ballots. That’s good news for voters and others who depend on the Postal Service for things like their medications. These five rulings should mean something else as well. The Postmaster General and the Board of Governors have received the strongest of rebukes from four federal judges in five cases representing twenty-four states, several national organizations, and many individuals. This turn of events has to be unprecedented, and it has been a total embarrassment for the Postal Service’s leaders. It won’t happen, but they should be thinking about resigning.
Seagram Heiress Gets 81 Months for Role in Nxivm Sex Cult - Clare Bronfman, an heiress to the Seagram Co. liquor fortune, was sentenced to 81 months in prison and $6.5 million in penalties for her role in luring female victims for the Nxivm sex cult founded by Keith Raniere.“She used her incredible wealth and attempted to use her social status and connections not only to support Nxivm’s work but also as a means of intimidating, threatening, and exacting revenge,” U.S. District Judge Nicholas Garaufis said Wednesday in Brooklyn, New York. The sentence Garaufis imposed was longer than the five years requested by prosecutors, and he ordered her immediately remanded into federal custody.Bronfman, 41, gave at least $100 million to help bankroll the cult, which branded women and forced them to engage in sex acts, according to prosecutors. She pleaded guilty last year to harboring an undocumented immigrant who had traveled to the U.S. on a forged work visa, and to identity theft for helping Raniere use a dead woman’s credit card.Raniere was convicted last year o f multiple charges, including racketeering, sex trafficking, alien smuggling and fraud. The government is seeking a life sentence for him. Bronfman, one of five Nxivm leaders who pleaded guilty before Raniere’s trial, was the first of them to be sentenced.The IRS Moves to Crack Down on Cryptocurrency Tax Evaders - - Yves Smith - We warned you from the get-go that Bitcoin = prosecution futures. The IRS is in the process of making that even more so that it was. Speculators who have been treating cryptocurrency as a license not to pay taxes face a rude awakening. We described in 2014 how the IRS had ruled that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were tradeable property, meaning that gains and losses upon sale would be taxable events. As we wrote then: More important, the fact that Bitcoin is property means it can be taxed at short or long term capital gains rates, or as ordinary income, depending on the holding period of the Bitcoins in question and the status of the holder (investor v. trader v. Bitcoin miner v. business accepting Bitcoin as payment). The record-keeping burden of having to track Bitcon prices against the dollar at the time of acquisition versus the time of use will be a substantial deterrent to their use in commerce.And we also warned in 2018 that the IRS was cracking down, in Bitcoin as Prosecution Futures: Coinbase Agrees to Turn Customer Records Over to Department of Justice for Possible Tax Evasion: The IRS is turning the heat up even higher on cryptocurrency users. For 2020 individual tax returns, the agency has, as its most prominent question, whether filers had dabbled in cryptocurrencies, which it calls “virtual currencies”: The Wall Street Journal, in a thorough piece, explains that this placement is designed to set up prosecutions:The IRS’s move is a strong warning to millions of crypto holders who aren’t complying with the law that they must file required forms they may see as burdensome and pay taxes they may think are unfair. It has impressed tax specialists.“This placement is unprecedented and will make it easier for the IRS to win cases against taxpayers who check ‘No’ when they should check ‘Yes,’” says Ed Zollars, a CPA with Kaplan Financial Education who updates tax professionals on legal developments.Mr. Zollars notes that U.S. tax authorities have already succeeded with a similar strategy: A simple tax-return question about offshore financial accounts greatly aided their crackdown on Americans hiding money abroad. Since 2009, it has brought in more than $12 billion from individuals.The story describes how cryptocurrencies have become popular, with Coinbase reporting 35 million accounts as of July and Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency investigations software firm, estimated US Bitcoin users alone from June 2019 to June 2020 at 3.1 million or more. It also describes how the IRS provided cryptocurrency assistance in prosecutions, such as of a Dutch child pornographer.
Ex-Deutsche Bank Traders Convicted of Wire Fraud in Market-Manipulation Case – WSJ —A jury on Friday convicted two former Deutsche Bank DB -1.90% employeesaccused of manipulating precious-metals prices, boosting prosecutors’ efforts to punish traders for conduct that has cost banks millions of dollars in civil and criminal fines.The verdict represents prosecutors’ second win in trials over conduct known as spoofing, a rapid-fire manipulation tactic that involves sophisticated detective work to expose.Companies including Deutsche Bank and Bank of America have collectively paid hundreds of millions of dollars in fines over spoofing claims. With Friday’s outcome, three traders have now been convicted of spoofing-related crimes. Another trader was acquitted, and another trial ended in a hung jury.The jury convicted James Vorley, a U.K. citizen, of three of eight counts of wire fraud. Cedric Chanu, a French citizen who lives in Dubai, was convicted of seven of 10 counts of wire fraud. Both men were acquitted of one count of conspiracy. The verdict at Chicago’s federal courthouse came after three days of deliberation and seven days of testimony. The evidence presented to the jury included trading charts that allegedly showed what the traders were accused of: sending a sequence of rapid-fire orders, all quickly canceled, which distorted supply and demand and resulted in a price move engineered by the spoofer.In electronic chat messages shown to jurors, Messrs. Vorley and Chanu appeared to talk about their spoofing, admired colleagues who used the tactic, and acknowledged it was unfair. Defense attorneys countered that what prosecutors called spoofing was acceptable behavior a decade ago, when some of the disputed trading occurred on futures exchanges operated by Chicago-based CME Group Inc. Judging whether a trader intended to cancel orders that were sent to CME is an impossible and absurd task, they argued, since prices move constantly and computer-driven strategies trade faster than any human can delete an order. Congress outlawed spoofing in 2010, but Deutsche Bank didn’t use the term in policies describing prohibited conduct until 2014, suggesting that traders might not be aware it was illegal, defense attorneys said.The ex-traders were charged with wire fraud and conspiracy, but not spoofing.
Meet The Mastermind Behind JPMorgan's Gold And Silver Manipulation Crime Ring -There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in "reputable" media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to "provide liquidity", when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take "complicated" financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything.All that changed in November 2018 when a former JPMorgan precious-metals trader admitted he engaged in a six-year spoofing scheme that defrauded investors in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. John Edmonds, then 36, pled guilty under seal in the District of Connecticut to commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, commodities price manipulation, and spoofing, a trading technique whereby traders flood the market with "fake" bids or asks to push the price of a given futures contract up or down toward a more advantageous price, and to confuse other traders or HFTs which respond to trader intentions by launching momentum in the other direction. As FBI Assistant Director in Charge Sweeney explained at the time, "with his guilty plea, Edmonds admitted he intended to introduce materially false and misleading information into the commodities markets."A little m ore than a year later, former Deutsche Bank precious metals trader David Liew sat in a federal courtroom telling a jury about how he learned to 'spoof' markets from his colleagues, and that he considered the behavior to be "OK" because it was "so commonplace." Unfortunately for him, federal authorities didn't see it that way, and have aggressively prosecuted the big dealer banks for market manipulation across a variety of markets. His testimony led to convictions for two of his former coworkers. A few days later, JP Morgan agreed to settle similar allegations with a record $1 billion fine, netting another major victory for the government in the nearly decade-long campaign to root out manipulation from the precious metal markets. Today, Bloomberg is finally catching up to years of "conspiracy theory" reporting, such as this article published here in 2014 and titled "Gold Rigging By Bullion Banks Exposed: The Complete Chart", with a sweeping expose about the precious metals manipulation and spoofing scandal, focusing on the precious metals trading desk at JPM and its top trader, Mike Nowak.And although Bloomberg inexplicably did not mention it even once in its lengthy report, Nowak's desk was under the direct purview of Blythe Masters, who from 2007 until 2014 was the head of Global Commodities at JPMorgan.
Nominee to Financial Regulator CFTC Traded Stocks, Options While in Government – WSJ —President Trump’s nominee to the agency that regulates the vast derivatives market is no stranger to risky bets. Robert Bowes, a political appointee in the Department of Housing and Urban Development, has reported 140 trades of stocks and options that collectively amount to between $671,000 and $3.2 million since joining the government in early 2017. Three bets on options or individual stocks were larger than $50,000 each. Disclosure forms filed by Mr. Bowes, a former banker and fund manager nominated by Mr. Trump to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, list wagers against cruise operator Royal Caribbean Group, bets on market volatility and purchases of small-cap stocks. Ethics rules don’t ban government officials from trading, as long as they steer clear of conflicts of interest and don’t take advantage of inside information, which Mr. Bowes said he didn’t. What was unusual, ethics experts said, was the frequency of his transactions, the high-stakes bets he sometimes made and the exotic securities he sometimes traded. On several occasions in 2018 and 2020, he bought and sold thousands of dollars of options on the same day. “It is literally day trading,” Robert Rizzi, a partner at law firm Steptoe & Johnson LLP who advises government officials and nominees on financial disclosure, said after reviewing Mr. Bowes’s filings. “When they’re in the government, a lot of them don’t have time to do this, so it’s pretty amazing that he’s doing all this trading.” Despite his investment activity, which continued into August of this year, Mr. Bowes listed no financial income, brokerage accounts or bank accounts on his year-end 2018 or 2019 financial disclosures. In response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Bowes said that he made a mistake on the 2018 filing and that his bank and brokerage-account balances at the end of 2019 were too low to require disclosure.
Shareholder Capitalism’s Ugly Legacy - Milton Friedman’s libertarian economics advocating shareholder capitalism has influenced generations trying to understand the economy, not only in the US, but all over the world. He was not just an academic economist, but an enormously influential celebrity conservative ideologue who legitimized ideas for the like-minded, including the belief that ‘greed is good’. Now, shareholder capitalism’s consequences haunt the world and threaten humanity with stagnation and self-destruction. In 1962, Friedman published his most influential book, Capitalism and Freedom. In September 1970, the New York Times Magazine published his essay, The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits. The article — reiterating the Friedman Doctrine, presuming perfectly functioning markets that only exist in the minds and writings of some economists — is a manifesto for American shareholder capitalism. It inspired the counter-revolution against Keynesianism, development economics and other state interventions.The word ‘competition’ appears only once, in the last sentence. Yet, some supporters insist that Friedman was not ‘pro-business’, but rather ‘pro-market’. But, unlike capitalism, the market has been with us for several millennia and has happily co-existed with unfreedoms of various types. Friedman’s 1970 essay remains influential in the world, and has long served as the mainstream manifesto on corporate governance. Even then, Friedman denounced dissenting CEOs as “unwitting puppets of the intellectual forces that have been undermining the basis of a free society”. Generations of Friedmanites have insisted that ‘the only business of business is business’, and their sole responsibility to society is to make money. He emphasized, ‘‘there is one and only one social responsibility of business — to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.’’ When Friedman insisted “make as much money as possible while conforming to the basic rules of the society”, he may have presumed that market imperfections do not exist, or were fully addressed by the ‘minimal’ state, although it is well-known that the rule of law has never been adequate to the challenge. His singular focus on maximizing profits for shareholders justified ignoring all problems due to corporate practices. The doctrine thus absolved the firm of social responsibility. It justified and encouraged generations of corporate leaders committed to the primacy of ‘shareholder value’. Almost like religion, this thinking became the hegemonic ideology, legitimizing ‘greed-is-good’ behaviour.
Citi cleared to seek information in $900 million-error suit - Citigroup can seek information on the relationship between investment managers and Revlon creditors who have refused to return millions of dollars the company says it mistakenly sent them, a judge ruled. Citigroup says an employee error caused it to send more than $900 million of its own money to a group of lenders expecting an interest payment on behalf of Revlon. The bank last month sued 11 investment managers for the Revlon creditors — including Brigade Capital Management LP, HPS Investment Partners and Symphony Asset Management — that are trying to hold on to the money as payment of Revlon’s debt to them. U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman on Tuesday granted a request from Citigroup to seek information from some of the managers that would clarify their connection with the creditors, such as contracts that enforce the relationship. “They’re going to defend the case on the grounds that they supposedly don’t control the money,” John Baughman, a lawyer for Citigroup, said during a conference. “We say there was a mistake. We say it’s a fact. We have to provide discovery as to whether it’s a mistake.” As of Aug. 11, when the transfers were made, 315 lenders managed by 34 funds had received the money, Baughman said. So far, 186 lenders have returned it, and there are 129 holdouts, all of them managed by the defendant firms, he said. Robert Loigman, a lawyer for the investment managers, argued against the request for information, saying it was equivalent to “suing a shareholder and saying they have control over a company.” Furman said he may reconsider the scheduling of the trial, currently set to begin Nov. 9.
Pennsylvania bank hit with regulatory order tied to BSA compliance - Atlantic Community Bankers Bank in Camp Hill, Pa., has received an enforcement action tied to its compliance with anti-money- laundering laws and the Bank Secrecy Act. The order, issued on Sept. 18 by the Federal Reserve, instructs the $857 million-asset bank to take to several steps to address deficiencies. Those measures include drafting a written plan to strengthen board oversight of BSA/AML issues. The bank will also create an enhanced compliance program run by a dedicated officer. The program will include an assessment that looks at all products and services, customers and geographic locations to determine inherent and residual risk. The order also requires Atlantic Community to revise its customer due diligence program to explain its risk-based policies, procedures and controls. The goal is to make sure the bank collects, analyzes and retains complete, accurate and current customer data. Atlantic Community will also submit a plan to independent test its compliance with all applicable BSA/AML requirements. Progress reports must be submitted to the Fed within 30 days after the end of each calendar quarter.
Court case reveals new details of fake-account allegations at Fifth Third -After submitting a resignation notice in 2010, a Fifth Third Bancorp employee wrote a four-page letter to management laying out concerns about sales tactics at the Cincinnati company. “We are becoming a ‘predatory’ financial institution,” this person wrote. “Every week I come across at least one or two customers that have been taken advantage of.” The author, whose name has not been revealed publicly, wrote that one common sales tactic was to persuade customers to open a second or third checking account, putting them at greater risk of incurring overdraft fees and resulting in additional monthly service charges.“The motivation for these practices is simple, if you don’t meet your goal you get fired,” the person continued. “That’s what I’ve been told, and that’s what other employees have been told, they are pushing the ethical envelope in order to save their jobs. I do not open as many accounts as some of my peers and the main reason is I refuse to partake in the practices.” The decade-old letter surfaced in a lawsuit the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed against Fifth Third in March for allegedly opening accounts without customers’ knowledge. Its disclosure is one of several new developments in a case that is expected to go to trial in 2022 or later, assuming the two sides do not reach a settlement earlier. The CFPB has also suggested in court documents that, years after Fifth Third said it flagged and addressed employee misconduct around unauthorized accounts, the bank’s technology for identifying such abuses is still insufficient. It’s rare for disputes between the CFPB and banks to wind up in court, and a trial poses certain risks for Fifth Third. The whistleblower’s letter, for example, shows how unflattering information that banks might prefer to keep quiet can be exposed when investigations by bank regulators culminate in lawsuits rather than settlements. At the same time, though, interim rulings by the judge in the case could result in a more favorable settlement for Fifth Third. The CFPB, which investigated Fifth Third in the aftermath of revelations about widespread problems with unauthorized accounts at Wells Fargo, has alleged in its suit that the $201 billion-asset bank took insufficient steps to detect and stop employee wrongdoing. Fifth Third argues that the CFPB has shown only limited instances of employee wrongdoing, which occurred long ago, and that the bank has identified and prohibited such misconduct.
How Bankers Hide Losses - In view of the severity of the Covid-19 crisis, regulators have decided to be less sneaky this time around. They have openly advised examiners and bank accountants to help troubled bankers to make loan losses disappear from their firms’ balance sheets and income statements. Allowing too-big-to-fail banks to misrepresent the depth of their accumulating losses is one leg of a conscious strategy through which bankers and regulators hope to lessen the threat of destructive Covid-driven systemic runs on the world’s banking systems. The second leg of the strategy rests on another fiction. Prudential regulators around the world are telling us that they can and do maintain financial stability by assuring the adequacy of what they call “bank capital.” But the statistical measures of bank capital on which regulators focus their efforts are nothing more than repurposed variants of a bank’s accounting net worth. With accountants able to conceal the impact of losses on accounting net worth, until and unless unsophisticated household depositors begin to fear that a bank may have let itself become deeply insolvent, the effectiveness of this control framework is being badly oversold.In an industry crisis, this disposition toward supervisory informational deception and regulatory forbearance creates a risk-hungry herd of what economists now characterize as “zombie” banks. A zombie bank is a financial institution whose economic net worth is less than zero, but which can continue to operate because its ability to repay its debts is credibly backed up by a combination of implicit and explicit government credit support.A zombie’s managers can not only keep themselves in business, they can grow their assets massively. But they can only do this when and as long as creditors are confident that government officials somewhere are ready and able to force their country’s taxpayers to make good on any missed payments. Almost no matter what interest rate a central bank or deposit insurer charges a zombie for its emergency credit support, the funding is almost always being offered at what isde facto a subsidized rate. In providing this subsidy, taxpayers accept a poorly compensated equity stake in the survival of the zombie enterprise. This blog seeks to explain that teams of financial illusionists stand ready to conceal developing losses and other forms of dishonest behavior. Bankers’ and regulators’ capacities for deception make it self-defeating for taxpayers to accept a social contract that turns on accounting measures of capital and self-administered stress tests. I believe that the world’s system for penalizing accounting misrepresentation at government-insured financial institutions desperately needs to include the possibility of imposing criminal as well as civil penalties on violators. The processes through which bankers extract benefits from the safety net closely resemble those of embezzlement and the rewards bankers garner usually rise to the level of grand larceny. The difference between street crime and safety-net abuse lies mainly in the class and clout of the criminal and the subtlety of the crime.
Fed will extend freeze on stock buybacks, cap on dividends— The Federal Reserve is extending its ban on stock buybacks for banks with more than $100 billion of assets into the fourth quarter and will cap dividend payments using a formula based on recent income. The move will “ensure that large banks maintain a high level of capital resilience,” the Fed said Wednesday in a news release. It mirrors one the central bank took in June after conducting its annual stress tests, which found that each of the 34 banks tested were generally able to maintain the minimum capital requirements under hypothetical economic recoveries from the coronavirus pandemic, although several breached the minimum in the most severe scenario. The Fed had restricted share repurchases during the third quarter, and it had limited dividend distributions to the levels banks paid out in the second quarter or the average of the last four quarters, whichever was less. “The capital positions of large banks have remained strong during the third quarter while such restrictions were in place,” the Fed said. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard voted against the action. Her reason was not immediately available, but Brainhard had voted against the Fed’s similar decision in June, arguing that while she agreed with the agency’s move to limit stock repurchases and dividend payouts, even more dramatic actions were likely warranted. The Fed is holding the first-ever "midcycle" stress test to get a firmer grasp of banks' capital strength since onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with the results of those tests expected by the end of this year. The most recent results of the Fed's normal test were based significantly on year-end 2019 financial data, while the supplemental tests will use data from this year's economic shock and could be used to make a decision on dividend payments and share repurchases for the first quarter of 2021.
The New York Fed, Pumping Out More than $9 Trillion in Bailouts Since September, Gets Market Advice from Giant Hedge Funds by Pam Martens - ~ The New York Fed, the unlimited money spigot in times of need by Wall Street’s trading houses, has been conducting meetings with hedge funds to get their input on the markets. More on that in a moment, but first some necessary background. {…] According to a research report released in December by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), four large banks and hedge funds were responsible for the repo blowup in September.Which brings us to the New York Fed’s Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets (IACFM) which it initiated in the midst of the last financial crisis on July 24, 2009. Today, half of the Committee’s participants are executives of giant hedge funds, including: William A. Ackman, Chief Executive Officer, Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.; Paul Tudor Jones, Co-Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, Tudor Investment Corp.; Ray Dalio, Chairman & Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP; Dawn Fitzpatrick, Chief Investment Officer, Soros Fund Management; Bob Jain, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Millennium Management; Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner, Guggenheim Partners.The group meets quarterly. The minutes are so scrubbed that they barely provide any idea of what was actually discussed. The October 9, 2019 meeting minutes, which followed the onset of the New York Fed’s massive repo loan operations, contains this well-scrubbed assessment:“They [the participants] also noted that the Fed repo operations had alleviated funding strains, though they remained focused on year end pressures. Some of these attendees thought that over time some investors may set aside cash to deploy in the event of a reoccurrence of funding pressures, which may also mitigate some of these pressures in the future.”Since the Fed’s inception in 1913, the statutory role of the Federal Reserve has been to serve as lender of last resort to commercial banks – so that those commercial banks could help the overall economy by making sound business and consumer loans. The statutory role of the Fed has never been to be a lender of last resort to the trading houses on Wall Street or hedge funds. But beginning with the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis, the New York Fed has simply arbitrarily decided to provide an unlimited money spigot to Wall Street’s trading houses whenever they are at risk of blowing themselves up as a result of their own hubris.To say that Congress has been negligent in reining in this abuse barely captures the reckless irresponsibility of what the New York Fed has been allowed to continue to do with barely a whimper from Congress or mainstream media. For just a sampling of its captured regulator status, see the related articles below.
Fed aims to give less complex banks relief in capital planning rule — The Federal Reserve proposed aligning new capital planning and stress test requirements for large banks with a supervisory regime that it established last year. The central bank has recently updated how it assesses banks' capital strength under a variety of economic scenarios, including finalizing the new stress capital buffer in March. The proposal unveiled Wednesday would link those updates with the tailoring framework created last year. The supervisory framework, mandated in part by the 2018 regulatory relief law, created four distinct categories of institutions facing differing levels of requirements based on their complexity. The most demanding Category 1 banks includes the eight most complex firms — the U.S.-based global systemically important banks — with banks in the three other categories facing gradually less rigorous standards. The new proposal would align the Fed's capital plan rule and stress capital buffer requirements with the four-tier tailoring framework. For example, Category 4 banks — defined as institutions with between $100 billion and $500 billion of assets — would have greater flexibility in developing capital plans and be excused from certain reporting requirements. However, the proposal would not alter any bank’s capital requirements. Under the proposal, Category 4 banks would still be required to submit a capital plan to the Fed each year, but would no longer be required to calculate estimates of projected revenues, losses, reserves and minimum capital levels using the Fed’s stress test scenarios. Those firms would still have to submit a forward-looking income analysis as well as projected capital levels under baseline and severely adverse conditions. However, the Fed would retain the ability to have Category 4 banks submit a capital plan under the Fed’s scenarios based on either the economic outlook or a firm’s financial condition, the regulator said in its proposal. “While the proposal would no longer require firms subject to Category IV standards to include certain elements in their capital plans, all banking organizations, regardless of size and complexity, are expected to have the capacity to analyze the potential impact of adverse outcomes on their financial condition, including on capital,” the Fed said. The Fed also proposed that for years when Category 4 banks are not subject to the stress testing cycle, those firms would get an up-to-date stress capital buffer requirement that would account for planned dividend payments. But those banks would also be able to undergo a stress test in an off-year in order to get a new stress capital buffer requirement to better reflect its risk profile.
House PPP forgiveness plan is better than nothing, bankers say - Bankers have mixed views of the latest proposal to revamp the Paycheck Protection Program.Though underwhelmed by the PPP plan outlined in a new stimulus bill introduced by House Democrats, lenders are eager to see any progress on legislation to reauthorize and improve the program. And they are still concerned the effort will remain mired in an ongoing impasse over a new round of economic stimulus.Under a proposed $2.2 trillion stimulus package, PPP loans of $50,000 or less would be automatically forgiven. A simplified forgiveness application would be offered for loans of $50,000 to $150,000. “If this is an opening salvo, it’s a good first step,” said James Ballentine, executive vice president of congressional relations at the American Bankers Association. “Our goal is for them to get something done before they leave town.” Bankers who have lobbied for automatic forgiveness for loans of up to $150,000 expressed disappointment with the lower cutoff. About 85% of all PPP loans would benefit from the higher cap, said John Buhrmaster, president and CEO of the $559 million-asset 1st National Bank of Scotia in Scotia, N.Y. “Those are the small businesses that really needed the money,” Buhrmaster said, adding that a smaller threshold “statistically doesn’t make a lot of sense.” But any progress would be welcome news. The PPP has been on hiatus since early August, and lenders have grown increasingly frustrated with the complexities of having their borrowers’ loans forgiven. Ten trade groups, including the ABA and the Independent Community Bankers of America, recently sent a letter to legislative leaders urging them to pass legislation reauthorizing the Paycheck program.
Barclays, Citi and other big banks invest in behavior biometrics firm - Four major global banks are staking $20 million in the behavioral biometrics firm BioCatch. BioCatch uses advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence to monitor web and mobile app sessions in the background, and look for signs of cyberattack, spoofing and more based on behavioral data. Its customers include banks, payment companies and insurance companies. In April, the company said it counted more than 40 of the world’s largest global financial institutions as customers. Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC and National Australia Bank were all part of BioCatch’s Series C fundraising round, which totaled $168 million. Each institution will receive two seats on BioCatch’s newly formed BioCatch Client Innovation Board, alongside longtime investor American Express Ventures. Innovation Board members will contribute ideas for new BioCatch offerings and help develop methods to thwart online fraud. One major focus is on online user behavior, especially as business activity has largely moved online during the pandemic. In a press release, each bank explained the reasoning for their investment in BioCatch, which largely centered on a desire to build on fraud and scam protections for their customers. “In using device behavioral biometrics from BioCatch, we’re able to bolster our efforts to proactively detect fraud before the transfer of funds occurs, reducing the financial and emotional impact of scams for our customers,” said Chris Sheehan, general manager, group investigations and fraud at National Australia Bank. “We are investing in BioCatch and joining the Innovation Board to build on our existing measures at Barclays that prevent fraud and scams,” said Hilda Jenkins, head of customer for digital channels and platforms across mobile, web and API at Barclays, said in the release. BioCatch, which is based in New York and Tel Aviv, claims it can detect stolen or synthetic identities during onboarding, recognize account takeovers and flag social engineering scams using its millions of behavior profiles and transaction data. The company says it can flag user digital behavior that presents potential risk, without collecting personally identifiable information that would compromise user privacy.
Community bankers adopt bunker mentality as pandemic drags on - Community banks entered a holding pattern in the initial months of the pandemic, reflecting an abrupt shift in concerns from liquidity and growth opportunities to deteriorating economic conditions, according to a new survey. Very few have been pursuing acquisitions or investing heavily in new technologies, and staffing has been reduced, according to this year’s poll of 396 bankers by the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. The results of the survey, conducted between April and July, were presented Wednesday in conjunction with the annual community banking research and policy conference hosted by the Federal Reserve, the CSBS and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Only 13% of the respondents had tried to buy another bank over the prior 12 months. While banks are expected to embrace technology over time, more than half have no plan to add online loan closings over the next year. Nearly 70% aren't looking at automated underwriting. Interactive teller machines remained unpopular; two-thirds of bankers said they have no interest in adding them over the next 12 months. Community banks cut 9,900 full-time equivalent jobs during the second quarter, or roughly 2% of the staff they employed on March 31, according to data compiled by the FDIC. The CSBS survey found that about 5% of respondents reduced staff in response to the pandemic. Community banks, defined by the survey as those with assets of $10 billion or less, are contending with uncertain operating conditions that have stunted loan growth and threatened credit quality. More than a third of respondents said business conditions were their biggest challenge. Core deposit growth, bankers' greatest challenge a year earlier, was less of a concern after deposits surged once small businesses banked their Paycheck Protection Program proceeds.
Coronavirus dims outlook for new credit union charters - Launching a new credit union is a daunting task in an optimal operating environment, but doing it during a global pandemic can be a monumental challenge. Organizers of de novo credit unions “are going to need a loyal and decent-sized member base and a lot of patience from the regulator,” said Peter Duffy, an analyst for Piper Sandler. The industry already loses more than 150 credit unions each year due to mergers or, more rarely, liquidations, so the number of new charters isn't nearly enough to keep up with the rate of consolidation. And with most of the credit unions being merged out showing up at the lower end of the asset spectrum, any slowdown in new charters only exacerbates the divide between large and small institutions. According to recent NCUA data, credit unions over $1 billion in assets make up just 7% of the total industry but hold more than 70% of total assets. New credit unions typically need one to three years from conception to the time they’re awarded a charter, after which the issue becomes whether they can survive in the current economic climate, said Geoff Bacino, an industry consultant and former member of the National Credit Union Administration board. Because credit unions don’t raise capital, he said, retained earnings then become the security net. The coronavirus pandemic and the increase in remote examinations has stretched NCUA’s resources, limiting the attention and guidance the agency can provide for startups, Bacino added. “Since the pandemic doesn't show signs of receding, it should be assumed that this is the new normal and the impact will be felt for a while,” he said. The credit union industry has seen very little new blood enter the space in the form of de novos. Since 2014, the NCUA has granted only 16 new charters, including two last year. One of those was Maine Harvest Federal Credit Union in Unity, Maine, which today holds $2.6 million in assets. The credit union’s second-quarter call report shows losses of more than $59,000, with noninterest expenses having doubled since March.
Fed’s Bostic urges banks to repair ‘history of abuse’ of Black Americans - U.S. banks need to improve financial services to Black Americans, many of whom have avoided financial institutions because of a history of racism, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said. “Many people in African American communities have not had very positive experiences with the mainstream banking and financial system,” he said in a virtual discussion sponsored by the Fed bank. Just as Blacks may be reluctant to enter vaccine trials “because of a history of abuse in testing and health care, that history of abuse is exactly the same thing that people feel when it comes to financial institutions,” Bostic said. Read More: Racial Wealth Disparity Stuck in Last Century, Fed’s Bostic Says Bostic, who is the first Black Fed president in the central bank’s 106-year history, said systemic racism was an economic as well as a moral issue. He cited a Citigroup study released this week finding that during the past 20 years, race-based inequalities shaved about $16 trillion from gross domestic product. “We need to be thinking really hard about raising this issue with all banking institutions across the sector,” Bostic said. Read More: What Racial Inequality Means When You Go to the Bank: QuickTake The Atlanta Fed leader described community banks as vital to many smaller localities, especially Black-owned banks that are “the trusted source” for minorities. While consolidation has shrunk the number of banks, he said, “We need to be thinking really hard about raising this issue with all banking institutions across the sector,” Bostic said.
CFPB missed opportunity to call out lending discrimination, critics say - Amid a national focus on redlining and other forms of racial inequality, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has identified persistent gaps in home-loan denial rates by race and ethnicity, but is stopping short of pointing to a pattern of discrimination. The CFPB's recent analysis of 2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act said denial rates are improving slightly across demographic groups, but historical racial disparities have not abated. Black homebuyers were denied loans last year at nearly three times the rate of non-Hispanic white homebuyers, roughly the same gap as 2018. The CFPB also found gaps by race and ethnicity in interest rates and refinance volumes. But the CFPB, which released the preliminary results in June followed by further analysis in August, said the disparities require further study and left out any suggestion of discrimination. Against the backdrop of national protests over racial equity issues, some observers say the agency is being too timid. The bureau is now empowered to look at more HMDA data than it has before. Critics say the agency's cautious stance generally reflects how the Trump administration has undercut fair-lending efforts. Some suggested the CFPB sought to avoid a deeper analysis by claiming it was releasing the information as quickly as possible. “It’s regrettable because lots of people have been waiting to see what this data shows about how much of the persistent racial disparities is explainable by facially neutral creditworthiness standards and how much is not, and also which ... standards contribute most to disparities in pricing and denial rates,” said Diane Thompson, the founder of the Consumer Rights Regulatory Engagement and Advocacy Project and a former acting assistant director in the CFPB’s Office of Regulations. The CFPB found that Black and Hispanic borrowers had notably higher denial rates last year than non-Hispanic white and Asian borrowers. Denial rates for conventional home purchase loans in 2019 were 16% for Blacks, 10.8% for Hispanics, 8.6% for Asians and 6.1% for whites, according to the 69-page report the CFPB released in June. HMDA data is regularly used by bank examiners in supervisory exams and fair-lending investigations. The 2019 data contained information from 5,500 institutions that originated about 8.1 million loans, a 26% jump from 2018, driven primarily by refinancings spurred by low interest rates. The HMDA represents roughly 88% of closed-end originations. For the first time, the bureau was able to analyze non-public credit score data — long considered a key to unlocking the puzzle of disparities in lending — but the CFPB said more analysis and data is needed in order to reach any conclusions. “The bureau is identifying disparities and cautioning that, in and of themselves, and even with the analysis by credit score, there’s not enough information to conclude that there is discrimination,” said Warren Traiger, senior counsel at Buckley, who analyzes HMDA data for financial institutions. “They suggest looking further at the data, but they don’t do so themselves.”
‘Enigmatic’ CFPB chief could drop more surprises in a second Trump term - With the November election weeks away, crucial questions await about the leadership of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — regardless of who wins. Under a Joe Biden presidency, Director Kathy Kraninger would be on shaky ground after a court decision enabling presidents to fire sitting CFPB chiefs. But if President Trump is reelected, observers disagree over the direction Kraninger would take the agency through the end her term in 2023. One theory is she will continue rolling back Obama-era regulations with a business-friendly focus to help mortgage lenders, fintechs and others. But some argue she will hone a more centrist approach, balancing deregulatory moves with tough enforcement actions against predatory companies. Indeed, the persistent effects of the pandemic could force the agency to strengthen its focus on consumers. “The strategic priorities will be around addressing the issues related to the pandemic and having to fix the economy,” said Tony Alexis, a partner in the consumer financial services enforcement practice at Goodwin and a former CFPB official. Banks and financial firms stand to benefit from Kraninger’s continued pro-free-market, limited government approach to regulation including a vow to provide companies with clearer rules of the road through advisory opinions and interpretive rules. But the financial fallout from COVID-19 is likely to take center stage in the next year as more consumers face financial trouble, as mortgage forbearance plans expire and servicers face the prospect of higher delinquencies. Many experts say Kraninger will be forced to increase scrutiny of servicers for their handling of deferments and forbearance requests, and of auto lenders for their debt collection practices during the pandemic crisis. “The CFPB is going to have to take a look at the mortgage market because there will be tremendous amount of people with financial problems,” said Alexis. Some note a stronger consumer-focused bent may come naturally to Kraninger, who has appeared less political than her predecessor, former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who was CFPB director on an acting basis. After Mulvaney essentially ceased all enforcement activity at the agency, enforcement actions have steadily risen under Kraninger. Most recently, the bureau under her watch announced a nationwide crackdown on abusive debt collectors in coordination with other agencies. “When you contrast her complete record with Mick Mulvaney's, she has truly set a middle ground on everything,” said Richard Gottlieb, a partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips. "She’s made nobody happy, which is exactly what you’d want in a bureau chief; it means she’s doing it pretty damn well." Yet critics of Kraninger worry she would continue focusing on deregulation in a second Trump term, which they say would harm consumers. Under her watch, some observer say, the CFPB has eliminated underwriting requirements for payday lenders, failed to focus on fair-lending issues, pledged to provide fintech innovators with regulatory relief and proposed a weaker "Qualified Mortgage" standard.
CFPB report says disclosure rule has cost lenders - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a five-year look-back review of its mortgage disclosure rule that found consumers benefited from being able to compare terms and costs but that lenders paid a high price for compliance. The CFPB released an assessment Thursday of its 2015 rule consolidating requirements from the Truth in Lending Act and Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act into a single disclosure regime. The integrated disclosure, known as TRID, was mandated under the Dodd-Frank Act. The bureau also issued a 33-page report describing how frequently the information given to consumers on loan estimates and closing disclosure forms changes in the origination process. Nearly 90% of all home loans involved at least one revision to either the loan estimate or closing disclosure form, the CFPB found. The bureau also found that TRID resulted in “sizeable implementation costs for companies,” totaling roughly $146 per mortgage originated in 2015 and roughly $39 per closing. The effects of TRID on ongoing costs is less clear, the bureau said. The CFPB was unable to obtain or generate the data necessary to do a cost-benefit analysis of the TRID rule, according to a statement in the report from CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger. In the review, which examined data on 50,000 mortgages, the bureau found that 62% of home loans received at least one revised loan estimate form while 49% received at least one corrected closing disclosure form. The report found that loan terms varied dramatically. Roughly 40% of all home loans had at least one change to the annual percentage rate, while nearly 25% had changes to the loan amount and loan-to-value ratio. Interest rates changed on 8% of home loans, the report found. The bureau is accepting public comments to determine whether further changes are needed that would strengthen the rule’s benefits or reduce costs.
Fed CRA plan seen as bridging divide with OCC — While the Federal Reserve's proposal to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act has key differences from a competing rule by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, some observers are still holding out hope that the two agencies can get on the same page. The agencies have bucked tradition by pursuing separate plans to reform the 1977 anti-redlining law. The Fed's advance of notice of proposed rulemaking last week made clear the central bank still disagrees with the OCC's approach to scoring a bank's combined CRA activities and other issues. The regulators appear willing ultimately to go it alone and have not shown signs of coming back to the negotiating table. But experts who have dug deeper into the details say there are enough parallels between the two plans that there may be a path for the agencies to coalesce around a joint rule. “We were led to believe the differences were so great that they weren’t able to work together, and that does not appear to be the case,” said Diego Zuluaga, associate director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute. At a broad level, both plans are intended to improve how regulators evaluate a bank's retail lending and community development projects in its footprint, and cover CRA-related activities beyond an institution's traditional branch network. “Both proposals have a lot of the same modules: retail lending and distribution analysis, community development analysis, having better clarity around eligible activities,” said Buzz Roberts, president and CEO of the National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders. “Those are really common elements between the OCC approach and the Fed’s approach. They’re just put together differently.” The clearest point of contention remains how dramatically the regulators shake up their CRA scoring methodologies. The Fed's proposal would avoid the OCC's controversial scoring metric to evaluate a bank’s combined retail lending and community development performance — based largely on the dollar-value of CRA-eligible projects. The Fed would alternatively score retail lending and community development performance separately. While the OCC may require banks to submit new of compliance data, the Fed has indicated it would rely on existing data sources. "In an effort to reduce burden, the proposed metrics would rely to the greatest extent possible on existing data collections and public data sources, and the approach would exempt small banks from deposit and certain other data collection requirements," Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said in a speech Sept. 21, the day the ANPR was released. But commentators have noted that the two plans have more similarities than they had expected.
OCC's Brooks sees 'overlap' with Fed on CRA— Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks signaled that he was still open to working with the Federal Reserve on modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act, over four months after the national bank regulator published a CRA rule without the Fed's support. “There's a significant amount of overlap between what the Fed has proposed and what the OCC has finalized,” Brooks said in a pre-recorded interview shared by the Consumer Bankers Association during a virtual event Thursday afternoon. Last month, the Fed released an advance notice of proposed rulemaking outlining the reform approach it is considering for the anti-redlining law. While key differences remain — namely how the two agencies have proposed calculating community development activity relative to other kinds of CRA lending — analysts have suggested their respective approaches appeared more similar than expected. Citing conversations with “people who've done a line-by-line comparison” of the OCC rule and Fed's rulemaking notice, Brooks said "something like 75% of the Fed’s proposal is straight out of what we did in our final rule.”“They have some other things that are a little bit different; we'll learn more about that as we analyze it and as we get comments,” Brooks said. “But I think there's plenty of reason to think we largely agree — the status quo doesn't work, branch-focused assessments don't work, subjectivity doesn't work. Why are we fighting?” Without committing to anything as specific as concrete changes or regulatory action, Brooks said he had “told the Fed that if they get good comments in response to their rulemaking, we're not beyond the prospect of finding ways of improving even more.” But Brooks also stressed that the OCC would not slow down implementation of its rule. “In the meantime, I can't sit by another four or five years on my watch and let this thing be the way it was the last 10,” he said. “That's just not fair for the people who need credit.” In the interview, Brooks was later asked by Richard Hunt, the president and chief executive of the Consumer Bankers Association, to comment on “regulatory coordination with other agencies,” and to what extent he interacted with his “fellow regulators.” “I mean, I sometimes feel like I do little else,” Brooks said. “I think that the truth is, the interagency relationship right now is really really strong.”
Oversight council warns of systemic threat from Fannie, Freddie — The Financial Stability Oversight Council has acknowledged for the first time that any financial strain at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would threaten financial stability, and it said the companies may need more of a capital cushion than its regulator has proposed. The FSOC — created by the Dodd-Frank Act to monitor the financial system for looming risks and currently chaired by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — came to that conclusion after conducting a review of the secondary mortgage market as part of its recent shift to an activities-based approach to identifying systemic dangers. The announcement occurred Friday, weeks after the public comment period closed on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s post-conservatorship capital framework for Fannie and Freddie. The FHFA proposal would require the government-sponsored enterprises to hold more than five times their current capital levels and align their capital standards more closely with those of banks. The FHFA is aiming to finalize the proposed requirements by the end of this year so that Fannie and Freddie can begin the process of raising the capital needed to exit conservatorship in 2021. In a statement approved during a council meeting, the FSOC said that capital requirements that are “materially less than those contemplated by the proposed rule” would likely not address the risk that Fannie and Freddie pose to financial stability. “Moreover, it is possible that additional capital could be required for the enterprises to remain viable concerns in the event of a severely adverse stress, particularly if the enterprises’ asset quality were ever to deteriorate to levels comparable to the experience leading up to 2008 financial crisis,” Howard Adler, deputy assistant secretary for the council, said during a presentation at Friday’s meeting. The working group that the FSOC set up during the summer — which included staff from Treasury, the FHFA and the Federal Reserve — also found that the proposed framework’s use of a stress capital buffer and a stability capital buffer could be risk-insensitive, because the buffers are based on total adjusted assets and not risk-weighted assets. “For that reason, the statement encourages FHFA to consider the relative merits of alternative approaches for more dynamically calibrating the capital buffers,” Adler said. However, the council stopped short of designating Fannie and Freddie as "systemically important financial institutions." But the FSOC also added that if it finds that FHFA’s final capital framework and other regulatory requirements, like stress testing and resolution planning, are inadequate, it would consider such a designation for either the GSEs or their activities. That designation would accompany banklike supervision from the Federal Reserve and supplementary regulatory requirements that could include stress tests, higher capital standards and the need to submit “living wills.” The FSOC finalized a new process in December that moved emphasis away from designating "systemically important" nonbanks for tougher regulation in favor of looking at potentially risky activities in a certain sector across multiple institutions, but the panel still has the authority to designate individual firms as SIFIs. In a statement, FHFA Director Mark Calabria, who has a seat on the oversight council, applauded the FSOC for recognizing the risk Fannie and Freddie pose to the financial system, and said that the agency would consider the panel’s findings as it looks to finalize the capital rule “in the coming months.” “As the council found, risk-based capital and leverage ratio requirements materially less than those in the proposed rule would likely not adequately mitigate the potential stability risk posed by the enterprises,” Calabria said. “Indeed, more capital might be necessary.”
Fed’s Wells Fargo review should consider forbearance snafu- Warren - Wells Fargo is once again drawing criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren — this time for placing homeowners in forbearance plans during the pandemic without their consent. Warren is asking the Federal Reserve Board to consider Wells’s flawed approach to forbearance in the COVID-19 crisis as the Fed reviews the status of the asset cap placed on the bank in February 2018. “This recent incident is another stark reminder that Wells Fargo has not yet implemented the types of structural reforms needed,” the Massachusetts Democrat wrote in a letter Wednesday to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, “and that much additional progress is necessary before the Fed begins to consider permanently lifting the asset cap.” The San Francisco bank provided Warren information about the unrequested forbearance plans early last month. On Thursday, Warren publicly released Wells Fargo’s Sept. 4 letter, as well as certain documents that the bank also shared. Wells Fargo’s letter states that the bank has received approximately 1,600 complaints from customers saying that they did not request a forbearance. The bank did not provide a total number of customers who received a forbearance without their consent, though it did provide additional details about what it has learned so far. Wells has identified 904 instances in which homeowners who were in bankruptcy proceedings were placed into forbearance plans that they did not request, according to the bank’s letter. Roughly 38% of those borrowers have since confirmed that they did not want to be placed into forbearance. Forbearance plans allow borrowers to skip their monthly payments, which will be due at a later date. Wells also acknowledged that an unspecified number of homeowners who contacted the bank about a pandemic-related hardship were placed into forbearance even though they did not request that option. “We subsequently changed our practices to ensure that customer service representatives expressly confirmed a customer’s intent before providing a forbearance,” Kristy Fercho, Wells Fargo’s head of home lending, wrote in the letter to Warren. Wells has been contacting borrowers who may not have wanted forbearances they received, including some who did ask for a payment deferral on a mortgage or home equity account, but also received one on another linked account. The bank has not said how many borrowers fall into that category. “We have been proactively reaching out to customers to resolve these concerns,” Wells Fargo spokesman Tom Goyda said in an email Thursday. “We are removing forbearances when requested, adjusting credit reporting and working directly with any customer who received an unwanted payment suspension.”
State regulator group offers guidance for mortgage servicing oversight — The Conference of State Bank Supervisors unveiled a proposed set of best practices for state oversight of nonbank mortgage servicers. The proposal, with public feedback due Dec. 31, pointed to “a changed nonbank mortgage market” as the driving force behind the plan. “Given their credentialing, licensing and examination authority over nonbank mortgage servicers, state regulators play a central role in ensuring that these entities conduct servicing operations in a safe and sound manner and have strong consumer protections in place,” the CSBS said. The proposal released Thursday “would only become effective through state law, rule or other formal undertaking,” the group said. According to the CSBS, the proposal is structured around codifying existing best practices for supervising nonbank mortgage servicers. The plan would be modeled after federal servicing standards developed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and other agencies and be used to oversee companies that currently are subject to state regimes. While the proposal would ostensibly cover any business that services a mortgage under state supervision, the CSBS indicated it would be open to establishing some type of minimal threshold, even for requirements it described as “baseline.” “Nonbank servicer coverage in this proposal is intentionally unspecific,” the CSBS wrote, but the group also included a question for comment about whether there should be "a de minimis threshold." On data standards, the CSBS said that while most federal regulation requires only entities that service more than 5,000 loans in a given year to comply with certain requirements, such as those under the Truth in Lending Act, the states’ proposal would “apply to all nonbank mortgage servicers and all serviced loans.” The organization’s proposal also distinguishes between “baseline” and “enhanced” supervisory requirements for more complex servicing operations, with mortgage servicing rights that total “the lesser of $100 billion or representing at least a 2.5% total market share.” Servicers meeting the definition of “enhanced” would be subject to more robust capital and liquidity requirements, in addition to stress testing and being required to have living wills. Under their proposal, state supervisors would have the option of designating certain servicers as “complex” depending on "a unique risk profile, growth, market importance, or financial condition of the institution.” On risk management, servicers would be required to “establish a risk management program under the oversight of the board of directors” with “appropriate processes and models in place to measure, monitor and mitigate financial risks and changes to the risk profile of the firm and assets being serviced.”
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in August -Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 3.32% in August, from 3.24% in July. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.67% in August 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since October 2012. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.79% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.57% in July). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (3% of portfolio), 9.74% are seriously delinquent(up from 9.36%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), 2.86% are seriously delinquent (up from 2.79%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87%" Note: This is as of September 20th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 6.93% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.87% as of September 20, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.4 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance continues to decline and is now at a level not seen since mid-April. Many homeowners with GSE loans are exiting forbearance into a deferral plan and resuming their original mortgage payment, but waiting to pay the forborne amount until the end of the loan,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “However, the overall picture is still somewhat of a mixed bag. The recent uptick in forbearance requests, particularly for those with FHA or VA loans, is leaving the Ginnie Mae share elevated, as the pace of new requests meets or exceeds the pace of exits.”Added Fratantoni, “The continued churn in the job market is likely keeping many homeowners who have been in forbearance reluctant to exit, given the level of economic uncertainty.”...By stage, 30.26% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 68.37% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.37% are forbearance re-entries.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.10% to 0.11%"There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in July -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 4.8% Annual Home Price Gain in July The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual gain in July, up from 4.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.3%, up from 2.8% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.9% year-over-year gain, up from 3.5% in the previous month. Phoenix, Seattle and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in July. Phoenix led the way with a 9.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 7.0% increase and Charlotte with a 6.0% increase. Sixteen of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending July 2020 versus the year ending June 2020....The National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.6% before seasonal adjustment in July. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20- City Composites posted increases of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. In July, 18 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 18 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. “Housing prices rose in July,” . “The National Composite Index gained 4.8% relative to its level a year ago, slightly ahead of June’s 4.3% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in July compared to June. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have July data rose, with 16 of them outpacing their June gains. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 8.8% in August - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Reaches Record High as Sales Ascend 8.8% in August The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 8.8% to 132.8 – a record high – in August. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 24.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....The Northeast PHSI grew 4.3% to 117.1 in August, a 26.0% jump from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 8.6% to 124.5 last month, up 25.0% from August 2019. Pending home sales in the South increased 8.6% to an index of 154.2 in August, up 23.6% from August 2019. The index in the West rose 13.1% in August to 120.3, up 23.6% from a year ago. This was above expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.
Commercial Real Estate Scarring - Here is an article related to some of the commercial real estate (CRE) scarring from the pandemic recession. From the Financial Times: Destruction of value in US real estate revealed by appraisal data. The article suggests some CRE valuations have declined 25% since early this year. We will also see a decline in new CRE construction next year based on the recent architect billings, from the AIA: "Architectural billings in August still show little sign of improvement" And hotel occupancy is down 32% year-over-year, and RevPAR (Revenue per available room) is down over 50% year-over-year. The most significant damage will be to malls, hotels and some office properties, and also some losses for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) investors. The goods news is the CMBS market is much smaller than the residential MBS market, and loan-to-values (LTV) are typically much lower for commercial properties than residential. So this will not be a repeat of the housing bubble (or the S&L crisis of the 1980s and early '90s).
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.5% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 September: U.S. hotel occupancy remained nearly flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 26 September.20-26 September 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 48.7% (-31.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$96.38 (-29.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$46.96 (-51.7%)
Most of the markets with the highest occupancy levels were those in areas with displaced residents from natural disasters. Affected by Hurricane Sally, Mobile, Alabama, reported the week’s highest occupancy level at 74.9%. Amid continued wildfires, California South/Central was next at 74.3%. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
San Francisco Rents in Free-Fall. New York Rents Swoon. Expensive Cities, College Towns, Cities in Texas, Other States Sag. But in 16 Cities, Rents Jump Double-Digits -The combination of work-from-anywhere, ridiculously expensive rents, and coronavirus-fears associated with being on crowded elevators in apartment towers, is doing a job on the rental market in San Francisco. And not just in San Francisco, but also in New York, Seattle, Boston, San Jose, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Denver, and other expensive big-city rental markets. But it’s hitting San Francisco, the most expensive rental market, the hardest.In some other markets, rents are skyrocketing. So here we go with our roller-coaster ride through the cities.San Francisco rents in free-fall but still ridiculously crazy expensive.The median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments in San Francisco plunged by 6.9% in September from August, after having plunged by 5.0% in August from July, to $2,830. This brings the five-month decline since April to 19%, and the 12-month decline to 20%, according to data from Zumper’s Rent Report. From the peak in June 2019 – which had eked past by a hair the prior high of October 2015 – the median asking rent for 1-BR apartments has plunged 24%!For 2-BR apartments in San Francisco, the median asking rent plunged by 6.6% in September from August, after having plunged by 3.3% in August from July, to $3,800, bringing the five-month decline since April to 16% and the 12-month decline to 20%. And 24% from the peak in October 2015.To convert this plunge from percentages into fiat, so to speak, the median asking rent for a 2-BR apartment has plunged by $950 from September a year ago, and by $1,200 from the peak in October 2015. This is no longer a rounding error.These median asking rents do not include concessions, such as “one month free” or “two months free” or “free parking for a year” and the like. These concessions have the effect of drastically lowering the rent further. “Two-months free” lowers the rent over the 14-month period by 16%. Concessions, instead of rent cuts, allow landlords to show the monthly rents, as they’re spelled out in the lease, without the concessions, to their now very nervous banks.Despite this huge drop in rents, in terms of cities, San Francisco remains the most ridiculously crazy-expensive rental market in the US. But in terms of zip codes, there are a handful of zip codes in Manhattan and in Los Angeles that are more expensive than the most expensive zip code in San Francisco. “Free upgrades” is what the people who have decided to stay in San Francisco are now looking for. This is the strategy of shopping around among the soaring vacancies for an apartment with the same rent or even lower rent, but of much higher quality and in a better location. It creates churn. Landlords that lost a tenant to a “free upgrade” now have to price their vacant unit competitively, meaning undercutting other offers. This churn and the high vacancies explain the rapid reaction of the market to the current situation. The City of Boom and Bust always. And now is the bust.
Six Months After The Pandemic Started- Manhattan Offices Are Only 10% Full - A vibrant economic recovery of America's largest city that is New York City, depends on the return of office workers; otherwise, the absence of white-collar folks means a painful recovery is ahead. As of Sept. 18, about six months after the virus pandemic began, only 10% of Manhattan office workers were back, according to The Wall Street Journal, quoting commercial real estate services and investment firm CBRE Group Inc.'s latest report. That represents a slight uptick from the 6% to 8% level seen in July, a month after strict social distancing measures were eased because of the virus pandemic. Months and months of empty office buildings across the borough paralyzed the local economy, which resulted in a collapse in consumption as workers stayed home. The spillover effect has since led to a collapse in small businesses across the area. CBRE's report noted on a national level, about a quarter of office workers returned to their desks in September. The figure was higher in certain metropolitan areas such as Dallas at 40% and the Los Angeles metro area at 32%. The reoccupation rate across NYC is 32%. The low rate of office workers returning to Manhattan is a significant disappointment for anyone who remotely thought NYC's economic recovery would resemble a "V" by the fourth quarter of 2020. With new clusters of cases emerging in Brooklyn and NYC's northern suburbs in recent days, new fears of restrictions to businesses and schools could be nearing. Already, mobility trends around the city, according to Apple's Mobility Trends Tracker, shows driving, walking, and transit is slumping as the virus cases are increasing in the city.
Half of NYC restaurants, bars may close for good due to COVID-19: audit - As many as half of all New York City bars and restaurants could shutter permanently within the next six months due to the coronavirus, according to a stunning new audit released Thursday by state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. The report lays bare the extent of the pandemic’s fiscal impact on one of the city’s lifeblood industries, which only saw a return to indoor dining on Wednesday — at a meager 25 percent of normal seating capacity. “The industry is challenging under the best of circumstances, and many eateries operate on tight margins,” said DiNapoli. “Now they face an unprecedented upheaval that may cause many establishments to close forever.” In the next half-year, a third to half of all city bars and eateries could fall past the point of no return, potentially taking over 150,000 jobs with them, DiNapoli found. Nearly three-quarters of those employed in the city’s restaurant industry already found themselves jobless at the height of the pandemic, according to the report. In 2019, the city’s restaurant industry accounted for 317,800 jobs, paid out $10.7 billion in wages and made more than $27 billion in taxable sales, the report said. By April, as the coronavirus gripped the city and government mandates nixed indoor service, the industry’s employment tanked to 91,000 jobs, according to the audit. A city initiative to expand and expedite applications for outdoor dining — recently approved as a permanent, year-round program — helped boost employment numbers to 174,000 by August, DiNapoli found.
Construction Spending Increased 1.4% in August - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in June: Construction spending during August 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,412.8 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,392.7 billion. The August figure is 2.5 percent above the August 2019 estimate of $1,379.0 billion. Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,061.4 billion, 1.9 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,041.7 billion. ... In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $351.4 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised July estimate of $350.9 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 13% below the previous peak. Non-residential spending is 14% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently. Public construction spending is 8% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 34% above the austerity low in February 2014. Year-over-year Construction SpendingThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.7%. Non-residential spending is down 4.3% year-over-year. Public spending is up 5.5% year-over-year. This was above consensus expectations of a 0.7% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential, and possibly public spending, will be under pressure.
Household Wealth Rose in Years Before Pandemic, Fed Says – WSJ - U.S. families’ income and wealth rose in the years heading into the coronavirus pandemic, with those in lower-income and lower-wealth categories reaping relatively large gains, the Federal Reserve said in a report on household finances. As property and stock prices increased, households’ median net worth, or wealth, rose 18% to $121,700 from 2016 to 2019, according to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances released on Monday. The report is produced every three years. Median household income—the level at which half are above and half are below—rose 5% to $58,600, before taxes and adjusted for inflation. The rise in incomes came as the economy grew 2.5% a year on average, inflation remained low and the unemployment rate fell. The data suggest households were on a relatively solid financial footing headed into the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic triggered an initial shock that hurt all aspects of the economy, including income, but government stimulus, recent improvement in the labor market and enhanced unemployment benefits have helped prop up household finances. The most recent Commerce Department data for July show that Americans’ personal income was higher that month than in February, just before the pandemic. Household spending in July was lower than in February and Americans saved nearly 18% of their disposable personal income, more than double the rate in February. The recession and high rate of unemployment triggered by Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, threaten to erode income and wealth gains of recent years, economists say. Many say that government stimulus, including enhanced unemployment benefits, has helped bolster incomes and the economy.
Consumer Confidence Bounces Back in September - The headline number of 101.8 was an increase from the final reading of 86.3 for July. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 89.2.“Consumer Confidence increased sharply in September, after back-to-back monthly declines, but remains below pre-pandemic levels,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “A more favorable view of current business and labor market conditions, coupled with renewed optimism about the short-term outlook, helped spur this month’s rebound in confidence. Consumers also expressed greater optimism about their short-term financial prospects, which may help keep spending from slowing further in the months ahead.” Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.
Personal Income decreased 2.7% in August, Spending increased 1.0% --The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income decreased $543.5 billion (2.7 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $570.9 billion (3.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $141.1 billion (1.0 percent). Real DPI decreased 3.5 percent in August and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.The decrease in personal income was below expectations, and the increase in PCE was above expectations. The August PCE price index increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and the August PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.6 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) since January 2019 through August 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in August --With the release of this morning's report on August Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -3.24% month-over-month change in disposable income was at -3.55% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.30% nominal increase and 0.09% real decrease last month. The year-over-year metrics are 4.85% nominal and 3.44% real.Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of the CARES Act and the COVID pandemic, a major spike is seen in April 2020. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by the CARES Act stimulus.The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 104% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 42%.
PCE Price Index: August Headline & Core - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays for August was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.38% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.38% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is well below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019.The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. More recent FOMC statements now refer only to the two percent target.The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted.For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.
U.S. retail bankruptcies, store closures hit record in first half -Retail bankruptcies, liquidations and store closings in the U.S. reached records in the first half of 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated industry changes, particularly the shift to online shopping, according to a report by professional-services firm BDO USA LLP. In the first six months, 18 major retailers filed for chapter 11 protection, mostly concentrated in apparel and footwear, home furnishings, grocery and department stores, according to the report. They include department-store operators Neiman Marcus Group Ltd., J.C. Penney Co. and Stage Stores Inc. , home-goods retailers Pier 1 Imports Inc. and Tuesday Morning Corp. and vitamin seller GNC Holdings Inc. From July through mid-August, 11 more retailers filed, including apparel retailers Lucky Brand Dungarees LLC, Brooks Brothers Inc., Ann Taylor parent Ascena Retail Group Inc., Stein Mart Inc., and Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank parent Tailored Brands Inc. This year is on pace to rival 2010, when 48 retailers filed for bankruptcy in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, BDO said. Retail bankruptcies in 2020 have already surpassed the 22 such filings recorded last year.“This is almost certainly the worst year in recent history for retail,” said Kyle Sturgeon, a managing partner at Atlanta-based turnaround advisory firm Meru LLC. Government-mandated store closures and social-distancing measures have intensified challenges that were facing bricks-and-mortar retailers before the pandemic, according to BDO.
The Impending Food-Service Sector Disaster - Menzie Chinn - From Torsten Slok, now at Apollo. A survey of 457 New York City restaurants, bars, and nightclubs shows that 87% could not pay their full rent in August, up from 80% in June, see chart below. Of the 87% who could not pay their rent, 48% paid some of their rent, and of those, 49% paid half of their rent. The survey also shows that 40% of landlords have waived rent in relation to Covid-19. And for 43% of those restaurants, bars, and nightclubs that had their rent waived, the rent waived was 50%. With colder weather coming, this continues to be a difficult balance between keeping the virus under control versus limiting the economic damage. This trade-off also describes the US macro outlook, and we should expect a magnified negative seasonal impact on employment and GDP in Q4. Which is yet another good reason to expect the Fed to remain very dovish. Here’s the associated graphic: I think a good number of Republican policymakers think the crisis is over, given the economy is growing (although back to nowhere near 2019Q4 levels). They are wrong, particularly as it pertains to the food service sector, which accounted for about 20% of all February payroll employment in the US, on the eve of the pandemic’s impact. Employment growth was already flattening in early August; maybe there’ll be a recovery in the statistics for early September – but going forward, it’s going to look bad.We need a policy to support this sector, while NOT increasing the transmission of Covid-19. If we can bail-out the airline industry to the tune of billions, I think we can spare some funds for this sector. Two personal observations:
- While outside dining can continue elsewhere, with the exception of some hardy long-time Wisconsinites, I can’t imagine outside dining in January in Madison.
- A typical person working in the food services sector is not high income. If we truly want to allocate some resources to the lower-income deciles, then we should be even more in support of measures to buttress this industry and its employees.
Surge in gun sales set to break record: ‘They’re buying everything’ - Pistols, revolvers, rifles and shotguns are flying off the shelves this year, with gun shops reporting huge demand for models geared toward self-defense. The run on guns coincides with the coronavirus crisis and deadly riots that have put Americans on guard. Nearly 26 million background checks were run through the FBI’s national instant check system through August, and this month’s totals could push the numbers past the record 28.3 million checks from all of 2019. PHOTOS: Top 10 handguns in the U.S. “They’re buying everything,” said Steve Clark, who owns Clark Brothers Gun Shop in Fauquier County, Virginia. Some of his customers are opting for less popular firearms, figuring it will be easier to find ammunition for those models amid reports of ammo shortages among some retailers. “It’s across the board — it’s everything,” he said. “You can’t get near enough shotguns because people are looking for those for house defense.”
September Vehicles Sales increased to 16.3 Million SAAR - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 16.34 million SAAR in September 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 7.6% from the August sales rate, and down 4.3% from September 2019. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for September (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.34 million SAAR.Sales-to-date are down 18.8% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. In 2019, there were 12.70 million light vehicle sales through September. In 2020, there have been 10.31 million sales.
"Chemical Activity Barometer Rises in September" -- Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Rises in September: The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 1.6 percent in September on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 2.7 percent gain in August. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer was down 4.3 percent in September. The unadjusted data show a 0.7 percent gain in September following a 2.2 percent gain in August and a 1.9 percent gain in July. The diffusion index rose from 35 percent to 65 percent in September. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for August was revised upward by 0.89 points and that for July was revised upward by 0.42 points. “With five consecutive months of gains, the September CAB reading is consistent with recovery in the U.S. economy,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. ... Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
U.S. factory orders miss expectations; business spending improving (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods increased less than expected in August, though business spending on equipment appeared to be recovering, which likely supported the economy in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday that factory orders rose 0.7% after accelerating 6.5% in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would increase 1.0% in August. Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of U.S. economic activity, is recovering from its pandemic lows as businesses replenish inventories. The pace of expansion, however, is slowing as the coronavirus crisis lingers and the boost from fiscal stimulus ebbs. The Institute for Supply Management reported on Thursday that its measure of national factory activity fell in September as new orders retreated from more than a 16-1/2-year high. Unfilled orders at factories dropped 0.6% in August after falling 0.7% in July. Inventories at factories were unchanged, while shipments of manufactured goods rose 0.3%. The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, rose 1.9% in August instead of increasing 1.8% as reported last month. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the GDP report, increased 1.5% as previously reported. Business investment tumbled at a record 26% annualized rate in the second quarter, with spending on equipment collapsing at an all-time pace of 35.9%. Investment in equipment has contracted for five straight quarters.
ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 55.4 in September - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September. The PMI was at 55.4% in September, down from 56.0% in August. The employment index was at 49.6%, up from 46.3% last month, and the new orders index was at 60.2%, down from 67.6%. From ISM: PMI® at 55.4% September 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®: "The September PMI® registered 55.4 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the August reading of 56 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the fifth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 60.2 percent, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the August reading of 67.6 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, down 2.3 percentage points compared to the August reading of 63.3 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.2 percent, 0.6 percentage point higher compared to the August reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 49.6 percent, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the August reading of 46.4 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 59 percent, up 0.8 percentage point from the August figure of 58.2 percent. ISM PMIClick on graph for larger image. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was below expectations of 56.2%, and the employment index improved, but indicated some further slight contraction. This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly slower pace in September than in August.
Markit Manufacturing Inches Up in September -The September US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.2, up 0.1 from the 53.1 final August figure.Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release: “US manufacturers rounded off a solid quarter which should see the sector rebound strongly from the steep second quarter downturn.“Encouragingly, companies reported a maked upturn in demand for plant and machinery, which suggests firms are increasing their investment spending again after expansion plans were put on hold during the spring. Similarly, fuller order books helped drive further job creation as firms continued to expand capacity.“But it was not all good news. Supply shortages worsened as companies increasingly struggled to source enough inputs to meet production requirements. With demand often exceeding supply, prices rose sharply again across many types of inputs, especially metals. “Growth of new orders for consumer goods also waned during the month, hinting at some cooling of demand from households, commonly blamed on Covid-19. Overall order book inflows consequently slowed compared to August.“The outlook also darkened, as companies grew more concerned about the sustained economic disruption from the pandemic alongside uncertainty caused by the upcoming presidential election. The sector therefore looks to be entering the fourth quarter on a slower growth trajectory, adding to signs that fourth quarter GDP growth will wane considerably from the third quarter rebound.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Chicago PMI Surges in September - The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator, made up of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment, and supplier deliveries compiled through surveys. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 62.4 in September from 51.2 in August, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release:The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, jumped to 62.4 in September, the highest level since December 2018, as business activity recovered across the board. Through Q3, business sentiment recovered sharply to 55.2, the strongest reading since Q1 2019.All five main indicators saw monthly gains in September, with Production and New Orders leading the way. On a quarterly basis, Supplier Deliveries was the only category to see a decline. [Source] Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.
Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam" in September --From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam: Texas factory activity expanded in September for the fourth month in a row following a record contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose nine points to 22.3, its highest reading in two years. Other measures of manufacturing activity point to above-average growth this month. The new orders index advanced five points to 14.7, and the growth rate of orders index held fairly steady at 13.2. The capacity utilization index rose from 10.9 to 17.5, while the shipments index was largely unchanged at 21.5. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in September. The general business activity index pushed up six points to 13.6, its highest reading since November 2018. The company outlook index held mostly steady at 14.9, a reading well above average. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise, with the index positive but largely unchanged at 6.7. Labor market measures indicated stronger employment growth and a continued increase in workweek length. The employment index pushed up from 10.6 to 14.5, suggesting more robust hiring. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for September. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis). The ISM manufacturing index for September will be released on Thursday, October 1st. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 56.2, up from 56.0 in August. Based on these regional surveys, the ISM manufacturing index will likely increase in September from the August level. Note that these are diffusion indexes, so readings above 0 (or 50 for the ISM) means activity is increasing (it does not mean that activity is back to pre-crisis levels).
September Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview -Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." The latest average of the five for September is 15.5, up from the previous month's 12.2. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004. Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions. For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 837,000 --Special technical note this week on California (see release). The DOL reported: In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 837,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 870,000 to 873,000. The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 878,250 to 879,000. This does not include the 650,120 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 615,599 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week). At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined. Continued claims decreased to 11,767,000 (SA) from 12,747,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.
September Employment Report: 661 Thousand Jobs Added, 7.9% Unemployment Rate -- From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In September, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment in government declined over the month, mainly in state and local government education....In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 7.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.0 million to 12.6 million. Both measures have declined for 5 consecutive months but are higher than in February, by 4.4 percentage points and 6.8 million, respectively....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 27,000, from +1,734,000 to +1,761,000, and the change for August was revised up by 118,000, from +1,371,000 to +1,489,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined was 145,000 more than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In September, the year-over-year change was negative 9.65 million jobs. Total payrolls increased by 661 thousand in September.Payrolls for July and August were revised up 145 thousand combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 61.4% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 56.6% (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in September to 7.9%. This was below consensus expectations, however July and August were revised up by 145,000 combined.…
- 661,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total a little over half of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report was 275,000 jobs gained, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate fell -0.5% from 8.4% to 7.9%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate fell -1.6% from 14.2% to 12.8%, compared with the January low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff decreased 4.6 million to 1.5 million.
- Permanent job losers increased by 345,000 to 3.756 million.
- July was revised upward by 27,000. August was also revised upward by 118,000 respectively, for a net gain of 145,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek rose 0.2hours from 40.0 hours to 40.2 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and will be a positive.
- Manufacturing jobs rose by 66,000. Manufacturing has still lost -647,000 jobs in the past 7 months, or 5% of the total. A little over half of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
- Construction jobs rose by 26,000. Even so, in the past 7 months -394,000 construction jobs have been lost, 5.2% of the total. About 1/3rd of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 6,600. Even so, in the past 7 months there have still been -14,000 lost jobs, or about 1.7% of the total.
- temporary jobs rose by 8,100. This is a *drastic* slowdown from the gains of the past few months, which typically were over 100,000. Since February, there have still been -463,800 jobs lost, or 15.8% of all temporary help jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by 271,000 to 2.552 million, compared with April’s total of 14.283 million.
- Professional and business employment rose by 89,000, which is still -1.386 million, or about 6.4% below its February peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.01 from $24.78 to $24.79, which is a gain of 3.4% in the 7 months since the pandemic began. Gains had previously reflected that job losses were primarily among lower wage earners, who have been disproportionately recalled to work. That we have increased employment and increased wages as well is a very positive development.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 1.2%. In the past 7 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -7.4%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.2%. In the past 6 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -4.3%.
- Full time jobs were responsible for 54,000 of the gain in the household report.
- Part time jobs were responsible for 188,000 of the gain in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons fell by -1,272,000 to 6.300 million. This is still an increase since February of 1.982 million.
A special note: government job losses were 216,000, most of them temporary census workers. Without these, the net gain in jobs was 877,000. This was certainly a positive report, but a drastic slowdown in improvement compared with prior months. Most noteworthy that that part-time jobs constituted about 3/4’s of the improvement. That permanent job losers increased substantially is not a good sign for the months going forward. A “not so bad” element of the report is that both unemployment and underemployment have dropped to “normal” recession levels. The best news in this report - the last before the November election - was that all of the leading job sectors and indicators were positive. As I have said many times in the past few months, this is an economy that *wants* to improve. All that remains is gaining control over the pandemic, which has proved impossible for this Administration.
US Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Plunges Below 8% As 661K Jobs Added –(10 graphs) In a repeat of last month when the monthly payrolls came in as expected but the unemployment rate dropped far more than expected, moments ago the BLS report that in September a total of 661K jobs were added, below the 868K expected, and less than half the 1.489MM in August, led by a sharp 216,000 drop in government jobs (with local government education and state government education falling by 231,000 and 49,000 while hospitality, retail, construction and transportation saw some gains)...... but offsetting these disappointment was the plunge in the unemployment rate which tumbled by a whopping 50bps from 8.4% to 7.9%, with rates for both blacks and Hispanic plunging as well.How did the unemployment rate drop as the Household survey showed just modest growth, with the ranks of employed workers rose by just 275K to 147.563MM.Simple: it appears that the BLS is back to its old gimmicks of inflating the number of people not in the labor force, which increased by 1.9MM, from 99.720MM to 100.599MM.At the same time, the number of unemployed workers declined by 1MM from 13.550MM to 12.580MM. So the biggest reason for the drop in the jobless rate was people no longer looking for work. That could be because of frustration, or retirement, or going to back to school. But it underscores unemployment isn’t falling mainly because of people getting jobs.Then there were the usual gimmicks: the BLS said that for the March-August period, the BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall September unemployment rate would have been 0.4 percentage point higher than reported.In other words, the true unemployment rate is likely 8.4%, unchanged from last month.Going back to the Establishment Survey, we find that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 27,000, from +1,734,000 to +1,761,000, and the change for August was revised up by 118,000, from +1,371,000 to +1,489,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined was 145,000 more than previously reported.The one series tracked by all, the number of "temporarily" unemployed surprised as it dropped by more than 1.5 million to just 4.6 million, from 6.2 million the month before. As usual, debate over what defines "temporary" unemployment remains in the foreground. This was offset by the number of people in the U.S. seeing permanent job losses, which rose by 340K to 3.756 million, the highest level since 2013, and points to the ongoing business closures, bankruptcies, and investment cuts across the country.Meanwhile, the number of workers unemployed for more than 15 weeks posted an unexpected reversal, declining by 800K to 7.323MM. The average hourly earnings also printed generally in line, rising by 4.7% in September, up from the 4.6% revised in August, but below the 4.8% expected.The labor force participation rate dropped modestly, from 61.9 to 61.4 as the Civilian Labor Force dropped by nearly 700,000 to 160.1 million in September while the population rose by just 200K to 260.742MM. Why the decline in the participation rate? According to Bloomberg it ticked down for men aged 20+, but fell even more for wome, some -0.8%. With the start of the academic year and schools closed and running zoom sessions from home, many are likely opting out of the labor market. Despite the overall improvement, let's not forget that In September, nonfarm employment was below its February level by more than 10.7 or 7% million. Looking at the sector breakdown, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment declined in government, mainly in state and local government education. Some more details:
Warehouse, Parcel Operators Add Thousands of Jobs Ahead of Holidays – WSJ -Companies are adding tens of thousands of warehousing jobs as they scale up e-commerce fulfillment and distribution capacity ahead of a high stakes fourth quarter. Warehousing and storage payrolls jumped by 32,200 jobs in September, according to seasonally adjusted preliminary employment figures the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday. The jump in a sector that includes online fulfillment centers followed an addition of 34,400 jobs in August and came as retailers and logistics operators say they are planning to hire large numbers of seasonal workers for the coming holidays. Overall warehouse and storage employment by the BLS measure nearly doubled over the past decade, to 1.25 million jobs.Courier and messenger companies that deliver packages to homes and businesses added 10,300 jobs in September, the seventh straight month of gains. Trucking companies added 4,600 positions.Those gains are in contrast to the broader U.S. economy, where hiring slowed sharply in September as some pandemic-driven layoffs became permanent. Employers added 661,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%.The rush of logistics hiring comes as analysts warn that soaring e-commerce demand amid the coronavirus pandemic could strain distribution networks during the holiday season.“It’s just been one big spike. I think we saw maybe a 500% uptick in e-commerce business since March,” said Jeff Kaiden, chief executive of Capacity LLC, a third-party logistics provider that handles order fulfillment for consumer goods. The company is bringing on 30% more warehouse workers for the peak season than it did last year, he said.Three-quarters of U.S. consumers said they would do at least some of their holiday shopping online this year, and 43% said they planned to shop online exclusively, according to an August survey of 1,517 people by consulting firm Accenture PLC.Retailers and logistics companies are staffing up accordingly. Walmart Inc. said last month it plans to hire more than 20,000 seasonal workers for its e-commerce facilities. Target Corp. is keeping its overall seasonal hiring steady with last year, when it added some 130,000 jobs, but is increasing the number of workers who will go to distribution centers and to bolster the retailer’s curbside and in-store pickup of online orders.XPO Logistics Inc. said it would bring on 10,000 seasonal staff in the U.S., while e-commerce logistics company Radial plans to bring on 25,000 seasonal workers, up 19% from 2019.Companies are struggling to fill open logistics and distribution jobs despite high unemployment during the pandemic, in part because of worker safety concerns, said Melissa Hassett, vice president of client delivery for ManpowerGroup Talent Solutions RPO, a subsidiary of staffing agency ManpowerGroup Inc. “ Many of the clients do not have enough people to fill their distribution center, and they’re hiring as fast as they can,” she said. Light-truck and delivery drivers are also in short supply, Ms. Hassett said. “We talk to people every day who have supervisors and seasonal managers out in the trucks,” she said, because they can’t hire enough people.
U.S. Job Gains Slow as More Layoffs Become Permanent – WSJ - Hiring gains slowed sharply heading into the fall as more layoffs turned permanent, adding to signs that the U.S. economy faces a long slog to fully recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Employers added 661,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said Friday. The increase in payrolls showed the labor market continued to dig out of the hole created by the pandemic, but at a much slower pace than over the summer. The U.S. has replaced 11.4 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April, at the beginning of the pandemic. Job growth, though, is cooling, and last month marked the first time since April that net hiring was below one million. Friday’s Labor Department jobs report is the final one before the presidential election, which faces fresh uncertainty after President Trump and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden have promisedto create millions of jobs to advance the economy’s recovery from the pandemic-induced shock in the spring.Other signs of a slowing U.S. recovery include a drop in household income at the end of the summer and smaller gains in consumer spending, the economy’s main driver.The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in Septemberfrom 8.4% the prior month. Though the jobless rate is down sharply from a pandemic high of near 15% in April, last month’s drop partially reflected an increase in permanent layoffs and more people leaving the labor force. That could stem from more workers quitting their job searches due to weak employment prospects or child-care responsibilities. Large corporate layoffs are sweeping across the U.S. Walt Disney Co. earlier this week announced permanent layoffs for 28,000 theme park workers who were previously on temporary furlough. American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. will proceed for now with a total of more than 32,000 job cutsafter lawmakers were unable to agree on a broadcoronavirus-relief package.The recent layoff announcements aren’t reflected in the September jobs report, which includes data gathered in the first half of the month.Employers continue to bring back workers, but many factors are converging to hinder the economic recovery. For one, the initial hiring rebound from business reopenings is easing as states lift restrictions at a slower pace than earlier in the summer. Further, layoffs remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic peaks as business uncertainty persists. “The pace of jobs recovery apparent in today’s report suggests that we will be counting the employment recovery in years, not months or quarters,” said Marianne Wanamaker, a labor economist at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. “We’re not going to gain jobs as rapidly as we did in May and June.”A decline in government jobs, particularly at public schools, weighed on September payrolls. Economists attributed the drop to many schools’ pursuit of online learning this fall. Large payroll gains occurred in the leisure-and-hospitality, retail and health-care sectors, some of the hardest hit at the onset of the pandemic. The number of unemployed individuals saying their layoffs were temporary declined in September, which could reflect more people returning to work. Meanwhile, the number of workers who saw their layoffs as permanent rose for the month, a sign workers may be in for long spells of unemployment.
The U.S. Jobs Recovery Is Sputtering – WSJ -In normal times, a monthly employment report that showed the U.S. economy adding 661,000 jobs would be fantastic news. These aren’t normal times, though. If anything, the September employment figures counted as bad. The month’s gain was a step down from the 1.5 million jobs added in August and beneath the 800,000 that economists had predicted. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September from 8.4% in August, but that was largely because of a drop in the number of people actively looking for work. The survey of households upon which the unemployment rate is based—separate from the one for the main payrolls figure—showed a September employment gain of 275,000. The report leaves the U.S. jobs count 10.7 million below where it was in February, before the Covid-19 crisis took hold in the country. The slowdown in job gains, if it persists, is worrisome because the longer people are out of work, the more their skills typically erode and the harder it can be for them to find jobs once the recovery takes hold.In another unsettling sign, the number of unemployed who say their loss of employment is permanent—meaning they have no job to go back to—rose again in September, to 3.8 million from 3.4 million in August. In February, that figure was 1.3 million. It is, of course, possible that September was a fluke and that job gains will rev back up again this month. But there has been a worrisome pickup in companies announcing significant layoffs, including Walt Disney and Allstate earlier this week. Many small businesses are financially strapped.The risk that more of them fail in the months ahead, leaving unemployed workers with fewer jobs to return to, is pronounced. The recent uptick in coronavirus infections in many parts of the country—to say nothing of the news that the president of the United States has tested positive for the virus—threatens to throw a damper on continued reopening plans as many people step up their caution.Ultimately, the job market’s ability to recover fully will hinge on how soon a vaccine is widely available. Until then, much will depend on how effectively state and local officials can come up with protocols for mitigating the public-health crisis without sacrificing more jobs. Further relief for unemployed workers and struggling businesses to the end of the pandemic also might be in order. It was good, back in the spring, to see jobs come bouncing back as hard shutdowns came to an end. But as far as a continued recovery in the labor market goes, now comes the hard part.
Long-Term Unemployment Poses Rising Risk to the Economy – WSJ - More workers identified themselves as permanently laid off and unemployed for the long term in September, a sign the labor market’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be slow and protracted. While millions of workers have returned to jobs that were suspended this spring due to the virus, those that weren’t called back face the rising prospect of prolonged joblessness and income loss. Those same challenges were a feature of the slow economic recovery from the 2007-09 recession.In April, the most severe month for job loss in the current downturn, 88% of those who recently lost jobs reported their layoff as temporary, meaning they expected to return to the same role within six months, according to the Labor Department. In September, the share of such optimists fell to 51%, Friday’s jobs report showed. Meanwhile, those reporting themselves as permanent job losers rose to 3.8 million in September, from 2 million in April. That figure could rise further in October as airlines and Walt Disney Co. informed thousands of workers this week that temporary furloughs will become permanent layoffs. Many of those who lost jobs are struggling to find other work. Last month, 58% of unemployed workers had been out of a job for at least three months, including 19% off the job for at least six, and who are considered long-term unemployed.During the third quarter of 2020, 23% of those long-term unemployed were Latino workers and 21% were Black workers, both disproportionately large relative to their shares of the population.“It will be much harder to bring back that workforce in an economy that’s moving into a long, slow recovery,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings. “A lot of the businesses where those workers lost jobs are now gone.” Online business directory Yelp said as of Sept. 15, 60% of the closed businesses it tracks, nearly 100,000, had no plan to reopen. Those closures, largely among small businesses, particularly hit restaurants and stores. The growing length of the pandemic that took hold in the U.S. in March is one reason temporary job losses are becoming permanent, Ms. Bovino said. The longer it runs, the higher the chances of business failures, which result in more layoffs and fewer job opportunities. That would mean longer spells of unemployment, she said.
How Donald Trump Abandoned Workers After Promising to Bring Manufacturing Back to the U.S. - Although Donald Trump won the White House with a vow to reinvigorate a manufacturing base essential for America’s future, he failed to stanch the torrent of U.S. corporations absconding to countries with abysmal working conditions and lax environmental regulations.Right under Trump’s nose, America lost hundreds of factories to offshoring, and corporations relocated nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs, all before the COVID-19 pandemic sent the economy into a nosedive. Some of these callous employers, including FreightCar America, even soaked taxpayers for millions of dollars in subsidies and other aid before they cut and run.“They’re like parasites,” observed Bulman, who will lose his job when FreightCar Americaabandons its mile-long, 2.2-million-square-foot factory by the end of 2020. “They get what they want and leave.” Bulman, who formerly worked at a United Steelworkers (USW)-represented paper mill, helped lead two organizing drives at FreightCar America because he knew a union would compel the company to provide safer working conditions and give a voice to those performing demanding, hazardous jobs.But FreightCar America waged vicious anti-union campaigns that included threats to close the plant and—the company’s very name notwithstanding—move the jobs to Mexico. After defeating both organizing drives, the company still sold out its workers.Although Trump promised to stop companies from playing these heartless games with families’ livelihoods, he refused to intervene with FreightCar America or lift a finger to save manufacturing jobs in a state where workers deeply trusted he’d fight for them.He gave the cold shoulder to FreightCar America workers who called and emailed the White House with pleas for help, just as he ignored USW members who sought assistance early in 2020 before Goodyear closed its nearly-100-year-old Gadsden, Alabama, tire plant and moved several hundred remaining jobs to Mexico. Although the plight of the Gadsden workers elicited no response from the White House, Goodyear’s longstanding policy banning political attire, including Trump hats, from its shop floors aroused Trump’s fury. He threatened to remove Goodyear tires from Secret Service vehicles and fired off a tweet calling for Americans to boycott the company, even though that would mean the loss of even more American jobs.
Utility services in Maryland to send shut-off notices starting Oct. 1st - – In Maryland, Starting October 1st, utility companies will be allowed to start sending out shut-off notices to residents in the state ending a nearly seven-month moratorium. The moratorium, which started around mid-March, will still prohibit companies from shutting off water, gas, and electric services for residents through November 15th. But if you’re behind on payments you will start getting these shut off notices in the mail. Early last week a number of Maryland lawmakers met to discuss the concerns people had about possible shut-offs as we head into the winter months. “The briefing that we had last week was sort of a warning sign of here is where we stand as a state, here are the things that we’re doing, and here’s perhaps where the challenges are moving forward,” said Delegate Chris Adams (R-District 37B). State officials add that residential customers who owe money will have 45 days from the day they get their notice to work out a payment plan with their utility company or apply for energy assistance programs.
Georgia Power ends pandemic moratorium on collecting bill payments - Georgia Power’s moratorium on disconnecting homes for non-payment has ended, even as the pandemic rolls on.Beginning this month, 132,000 customers of the state’s dominant power company must begin paying down past-due balances that built up during the economic distress caused by pandemic. Otherwise, customers face having their electricity cut off, as tens of thousands already experienced.As many jobs went into hibernation, the state’s Public Service Commission backed and later extended Georgia Power’s decision in March to halt disconnecting customers. Later, the PSC’s five elected commissioners unanimously lifted the moratorium, effective July 15.Some activists warned that many Georgians were still without jobs or were working fewer hours because of COVID-19′s gut-punch to the economy. Low-wage and hourly front-line workers have been those most likely to have jobs disrupted.But with the moratorium over, Georgia Power shut-off electricity to just over 40,000 customers from mid-July through August, say company reports. August’s number was about 25% higher than for a typical month. Most of those cut off didn’t jump into the special payment option, which the company said it aggressively publicized. Electricity was eventually restored in the vast majority of the cases, according to the company. Georgia Power has about 2.6 million customers.Typically, customers don’t face disconnections until they are at least 60 days behind on what they owe.
Disney, Rivals Take Aim at California’s Park-Reopening Rules - An industry group representing Walt Disney Co. and other theme-park operators lashed out at new guidance from California, which would only allow attractions like Disneyland to reopen under strict conditions. The organization called for changes to the rules, which haven’t been formally released yet but began to surface on Thursday. Parks would be allowed to reopen at just 25% of capacity and would have to limit visitors to people living within a certain distance, according to Carlye Wisel, an industry podcaster. They’ll also require advance reservations and mandatory face coverings.In a sign of the tensions between Disney and California, Chairman Bob Iger has resigned from the governor’s Covid-19 recovery task force, the company confirmed on Thursday. The Sacramento Bee previously reported his exit.“While we are aligned on many of the protocols and health and safety requirements, there are many others that need to be modified if they are to lead to a responsible and reasonable amusement park reopening plan,” the industry group, the California Attractions & Parks Association, said in an emailed statement.
When coffee makers are demanding a ransom, you know IoT is screwed -- With the name Smarter, you might expect a network-connected kitchen appliance maker to be, well, smarter than companies selling conventional appliances. But in the case of the Smarter’s Internet-of-things coffee maker, you’d be wrong.Security problems with Smarter products first came to light in 2015, when researchers at London-based security firm Pen Test partners found that they could recover a Wi-Fi encryption key used in the first version of the Smarter iKettle. The same researchers found that version 2 of the iKettle and the then-current version of the Smarter coffee maker had additional problems, including no firmware signing and no trusted enclave inside the ESP8266, the chipset that formed the brains of the devices. The result: the researchers showed a hacker could probably replace the factory firmware with a malicious one. The researcher EvilSocket also performed a complete reverse engineering of the device protocol, allowing remote control of the device.Two years ago, Smarter released the iKettle version 3 and the Coffee Maker version 2, said Ken Munro, a researcher who worked for Pen Test Partners at the time. The updated products used a new chipset that fixed the problems. He said that Smarter never issued a CVE vulnerability designation, and it didn't publicly warn customers not to use the old one. Data from the Wigle network search engine shows the older coffee makers are still in use.As a thought experiment, Martin Hron, a researcher at security company Avast, reverse engineered one of the older coffee makers to see what kinds of hacks he could do with it. After just a week of effort, the unqualified answer was: quite a lot. Specifically, he could trigger the coffee maker to turn on the burner, dispense water, spin the bean grinder, and display a ransom message, all while beeping repeatedly. “It’s possible,” Hron said in an interview. “It was done to point out that this did happen and could happen to other IoT devices. This is a good example of an out-of-the-box problem. You don't have to configure anything. Usually, the vendors don’t think about this.”
NYC wedding with nearly 300 guests 'shut down' by police - Officials said authorities dispersed an indoor wedding reception with hundreds of attendees in Queens Friday night. New York City sheriffs said they received an anonymous complaint about a large gathering flouting social distancing guidelines at the Royal Elite Palace catering hall late Friday night. Officials said they found 284 guests inside the venue and that the wedding was serving food and alcohol without adhering to guidelines, according to NBC New York. The sheriff’s office said the manager of the venue received four citations, while the owner received two for nonadherence to Mayor Bill De Blasio’s (D) pandemic guidelines. The city, once an epicenter of the pandemic, saw its numbers decline in recent months but has recently seen a surge in Queens and Brooklyn. “This may be the most precarious moment that we’re facing since we have emerged from lockdown,” Health Commissioner Dave Chokshi said at a Friday press conference. “We will move as swiftly as the situation warrants. If this growth continues, it will turn into widespread transmission potentially citywide.” Eight neighborhoods have seen outbreaks more than three times the citywide average in the last two weeks, officials said Sunday, although Woodside, where the venue is located, was not one of them.
Ex-eBay workers to plead guilty to sending spiders to Massachusetts bloggers - Four former eBay employees have agreed to plead guilty for their roles in an intimidation campaign that included sending live spiders and cockroaches to a Massachusetts couple who ran an online newsletter that was highly critical of the auction site."Four former employees of eBay are scheduled to plead guilty on Oct. 8 at 2pm via Zoom in federal court in Boston," according to a tweet from the U.S. attorney's office in Massachusetts. "The defendants are charged with participating in a cyberstalking campaign that targeted a Massachusetts couple."The four expected to plead guilty are California residents Brian Gilbert, Stephanie Popp, Stephanie Stockwell and Veronica Zea, according to The Boston Globe. They are all charged with conspiracy to commit cyberstalking and conspiracy to tamper with a witness.They are among seven former eBay employees charged in the case, including James Baugh, eBay's former senior director of safety and security, and David Harville, the company's former director of global resiliency. The Massachusetts couple had other disturbing items sent to their home, including a funeral wreath and a bloody pig Halloween mask.According to court documents, eBay executives became upset with negative coverage of the company on an e-commerce blog operated out of Natick, Massachusetts, and in anonymous comments that appeared under the blog's stories. They became convinced that some of the anonymous commenters, which included parody accounts, were colluding with the husband-and-wife team who published the blog and texted about the need to "take her down" and "burn her to the ground." The ex-employees allegedly created a Twitter account and used it to send harassing messages to the blog's publishers before publicly posting their home address. The employees also sent pornographic magazines with the husband's name on them to their neighbor's house and planned to break into the couple's garage to install a GPS device on their car, officials said.
Washington D.C. proposes to remove the names of Jefferson, Franklin and others from public places - A Washington D.C. committee reporting to Democratic Mayor Muriel E. Bowser earlier this month put forward a proposal for the renaming of dozens of public schools, parks and government buildings in the US capital, removing the names of historical figures, who, the committee states, do not “reflect contemporary D.C. values.” The task force, the District of Columbia Facilities and Commemorative Expressions Working Group (DCFACES), cited 49 D.C. sites named after a wide array of historical figures, including founding fathers Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin and the abolitionist James Birney; presidents, including Andrew Jackson and Woodrow Wilson; the composer of the American national anthem, Francis Scott Key; inventor Alexander Graham Bell; and a number of lesser known figures connected to the history of Washington D.C. The initial report also called for the adding of additional context, in the form of plaques, to eight federal locales, including the Washington Monument and the Jefferson Memorial. The suggestion was withdrawn from the report after right-wing criticism from the Trump White House, which poses as the defender of the legacy of the American Revolution. In what must be taken as a warning to Washington’s working class, these public buildings and spaces are referred to throughout the report as “assets.” The name choice is not incidental. Today Bowser aims to liquidate the names of places. Tomorrow she may liquidate the places themselves.
New York Catholic diocese files for bankruptcy after sexual abuse lawsuits - A Roman Catholic diocese located in suburban New York filed for bankruptcy Thursday after it has been hit with more than 200 sexual abuse lawsuits. The Diocese of Rockville Centre on Long Island, N.Y., became the largest diocese in the U.S. to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Bishop John Oliver Barres announced the decision in a video posted on the diocese’s website, saying the it could not afford to litigate all of the sexual abuse cases. "What became clear was that the diocese was not going to be able to continue to carry out its spiritual, charitable and educational missions if it were to continue to shoulder the increasingly heavy burden of litigation expenses associated with these cases," Barres said in the video. The bishop said the COVID-19 pandemic “compounded” the “severe” financial cost of litigation. “Our goal is to make sure that all clergy sexual abuse survivors and not just a few who were first to file lawsuits are afforded just and equitable compensation,” he added. Barres said the Independent Reconciliation and Compensation program, started in 2017, also compensated about 320 survivors of clergy sexual abuse, which “depleted” the diocese’s funding. The bishop said the diocese’s ministries would keep going, and employees will be paid their regular wages. He also mentioned that parishes and schools are separate legal entities and “are expected to continue as normal.” "We will work diligently with all survivors, creditors and ministries to maintain open communication while we work toward our goal of a settlement and a restructuring plan that includes a comprehensive resolution for those suffering survivors," Barres said in the video.
It Sure Looks Like Daniel Cameron Lied About Breonna Taylor’s Killing --It’s getting harder to deny the likelihood that Kentucky attorney general Daniel Cameron lied, and lied multiple times, when he explained why a grand jury decided not to charge any police officer with a crime for killing Breonna Taylor. Cameron’s office presented evidence to the jury, but the only criminal charges he announced last week were against Brett Hankison, the Louisville officer who fired blindly into Taylor’s apartment on March 13 and accidentally sprayed ammo into a neighboring unit. The “wanton endangerment” charge he’s facing means that the only officer who will suffer legal consequences for the events surrounding Taylor’s death, at least for now, is the only one who didn’t have a direct hand in killing her. The other officers involved, Jonathan Mattingly and Myles Cosgrove, shot Taylor six times out of more than 30 rounds fired between them.When Cameron announced this decision to the public, he characterized it as a just resolution to a universally accepted set of facts. “The warrant [that the police used to enter the apartment] was not served as a ‘no-knock’ warrant,” he claimed, rebuking witness accounts that officers had failed to announce their presence before bursting into Taylor’s home, causing her boyfriend Kenneth Walker to think they were being burglarized and shoot one of them in the leg. Walker’s bullet was the police’s justification for opening fire, which killed Taylor, who was unarmed. But failing to announce themselves as police would undermine that defense: Under Kentucky’s “castle doctrine,” law-enforcement officers are the only home invaders that residents aren’t allowed to use deadly force against, but only if they clearly identify themselves as law enforcement.This wasn’t the only dubious claim that Cameron expected the public to take at face value. He also said that the grand jury agreed that Taylor’s death was justified. “While there are six possible homicide charges under Kentucky law,” he explained, “these charges are not applicable to the facts before us because our investigation showed — and the grand jury agreed — that Mattingly and Cosgrove were justified in the return of deadly fire after having been fired upon.” But the grand jury may not have actually agreed. On Monday, one of the jurors took the extraordinary step of filing a court motion to make transcripts of the grand jury deliberations public and allow its members to speak publicly about how they unfolded, according to the New York Times. Grand jury deliberations are subject to strict secrecy, and the evidence they consider usually only becomes public in court if there’s prosecution. The unnamed juror claimed that Cameron had misrepresented the jury’s case to the public, and that the jurors were never given the option to indict officers Mattingly and Cosgrove. If true, this would appear to undermine Cameron’s claim that the jury was unanimous that Taylor’s death was legally justified.
Lice infestation linked to girl's death; parents charged — A 12-year-old Georgia girl may have died as an indirect result of a severe lice infestation that may have gone on for years, investigators said.The new details on the August death of Kaitlyn Yozviak were discussed during a preliminary hearing Monday after which Wilkinson County Superior Court Judge Brenda Trammell agreed there was enough evidence for second-degree murder charges against parents Mary Katherine "Katie" Horton and Joey Yozviak to go forward to a grand jury. The couple was also charged with second-degree child cruelty.Georgia Bureau of Investigation Special Agent Ryan Hilton testified that medical records show Kaitlyn died from cardiac arrest with a secondary cause being severe anemia, a news station reported. The GBI earlier said the girl suffered "excessive physical pain due to medical negligence," although the autopsy results are not yet complete.Hilton testified that, at the time of her death, Kaitlyn had "the most severe" lice infestation that the GBI's office had ever seen, and it may have lasted on and off for at least three years. He said he believed repeated bites from the lice lowered her blood iron levels, which likely caused the anemia, and may have triggered the cardiac attack.
Teachers in Little Rock announce they will not report to in-person classes A union representing Little Rock, Ark., teachers has notified the school district that members will not return to in-person teaching Monday, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In its statement, the union said it had identified numerous unsafe conditions in Little Rock schools, including a quarter of schools saying people who entered the building are not consistently being given full questionnaires. The Little Rock Education Association also said 37 percent of facilities are reportedly not being properly cleaned and disinfected, and that numerous students and employees either do not wear masks or pull them down to speak to people. The statement also claims that ventilation systems have not been upgraded even though poor indoor ventilation has been identified as a major driver of infections, and that immunocompromised staff members are being required to teach in person. “This is not a work stoppage. We are completely and totally willing to work and serve our students virtually in a manner that keeps everyone safe and alive,” the statement reads. The Little Rock Education Association says teachers will only do virtual learning starting tomorrow. This is not a strike, but a work stoppage. LREA President Teresa Knapp Gordon says they will not be responsible for anyone getting sick or dying. Full letter >>> pic.twitter.com/WjPKZN5xrF .. "As we have stated previously, we understand that our parents need our schools to be open and we are committed to doing everything we can to avoid disruption to the learning environment," the statement reads. “We all want our lives to return to normal. That isn't going to happen unless we take the necessary steps to keep everyone safe and healthy. We are willing to do what it takes,” Little Rock Education Association President Teresa Knapp Gordon said in the statement. “If we do not transition to virtual instruction now, someone is going to get sick. Someone is going to die. We will not be responsible for that happening.”
W.Va. teachers union says it's ready to sue over changes to virus map that determines school status- The West Virginia Education Association says it will seek an injunction over changes to the state’s map that determines school status based on the spread of coronavirus. “Listening to the comments from the governor and his health advisors, the focus has clearly been on getting teams back on the playing field and getting students in school,” WVEA President Dale Lee stated today. “They forget that in many classrooms and buses across our state it is impossible to practice appropriate social distancing and enforce mask wearing.” The teachers union is questioning whether continued changes to the map have compromised the safety of students and employees in public schools. “Our members have watched the constant manipulation of the map. As each rendition failed to provide the desired results sought by our state leaders, additional changes were made,” Lee stated. “The map manipulation has gone on long enough. Citizens and educators have lost confidence and trust that the changes made to the map are in the interest of safety and public health.” Changes over the past few weeks have included placing smaller counties on a 14-day rolling average; having nursing home residents, corrections inmates and now some isolating college students count as one unit; altering the cutoff points for colors meant to indicate county status; and adding an additional color, gold. The most recent change had a dramatic effect last week. Initially the map counted just daily positive cases on a rolling average and adjusted for 100,000 population. State officials concluded people were holding back on getting tested because positives would count against their local numbers. So state officials now allow use of a percent positive figure. Counties are assessed by whichever is better, the average daily positives or the percent positive. A daily state map appeared with that change for the first time Friday, and then a dominant Saturday map that dictates school status also reflected the switch. Significantly more counties were depicted as green, the lowest levels, on the map. Monongalia County, which has been red for weeks, very quickly went to green.
New York City resumes in-person schools as COVID-19 infections continue to rise - Hundreds of thousands of New York City students are returning to schools today as the country’s largest school district starts its next phase of in-person instruction even as COVID-19 infections continue to rise in the city and state. The reopening order by Mayor Bill de Blasio threatens to create a catastrophe in a city where nearly 25,000 people have succumbed to the deadly disease. Schools are opening after a week in which the Department of Education (DOE) acknowledged that teachers, support staff and students in over 100 schools have already been infected. On Sept. 21, the DOE began bringing students in 3K (full-day programs for three-year-old children), Pre-K and special education classes back into buildings. Roughly 90,000 students and teachers across 700 school buildings were ushered into schools to serve as veritable canaries in the coal mine. New York state’s health department has announced a significant increase in the overall positivity rate from those who have been tested. Kings County (Brooklyn) nearly doubled to 2.6 percent positivity, and two ultra-orthodox Jewish communities in Rockland County, 25 miles north of the city, have positivity rates of 25 and 30 percent. The DOE’s figures obscure the true scale of the spread of the virus in schools because they refer exclusively to the number of facilities in which students or staff have tested positive and not the actual number of those infected. The same is undoubtedly true of the city and state’s positivity rate. The situation for many special education students as well as the staff who work with them is particularly hazardous. In addition to the specialized services frequently requiring close contact that many special education students receive while in school, a significant number of these children also rely on school buses to get to class. The vehicles are often under-sized and bus attendants must physically assist them while boarding and exiting buses. The upcoming fall and winter seasons pose additional risks due to the use of heating systems on buses, which could hasten the circulation of COVID-19 aerosols. The next phase of the homicidal school reopening plan includes bringing K-5 students into school buildings on Sept. 29, followed by middle- and high-school students, for whom in-person classes are scheduled to start on Oct. 1. Mayor Bill de Blasio, a Democrat, initially justified reopening schools with in-person classes by referencing the 0.34 percent positivity rate within New York City. Even a week ago, this figure obscured the fact that several neighborhoods in the city, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens, had sustained positivity rates as high as six percent and others had seen recent spikes. De Blasio also ignored the fact that the positivity rate in New York State was rising and at least 20 school districts in neighboring New Jersey had recently experienced outbreaks forcing superintendents to reintroduce fully remote learning.
After teacher dies of COVID-19 in rural Michigan, Detroit educators call for unified fight against unsafe school openings - In early September, the Detroit Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee formed our organization with a clear statement declaring, “It is not safe to reopen Detroit schools.” We insisted that educators, students and parents should not lay down their lives in a poorly designed, underfunded and deadly experiment whose sole aim is to get children out of their homes so their parents can be sent back into the factories and other workplaces to produce corporate profit. From the beginning, our committee called on educators across the state to join us to prevent the spread of the deadly disease, which infects its victims whether they are from urban, suburban or rural areas and no matter what their race, gender or ethnic background. We have now learned of the first death of an educator in Michigan since the reopening of schools for the fall semester. Michelle McCrackin, an educator and 53-year-old mother of five, died last week in Carson City, a rural town of 1,100 residents in central Michigan. Michelle died just three days after calling in sick at the Carson City-Crystal Area School District (CC-C), a small district with around 900 students located 135 miles northwest of Detroit. The Carson City-Crystal schools opened on August 24 with about three-quarters of its students attending in person. A month after opening, the first infection was reported. One week later, Michelle was dead and 15 other staff and students tested positive. The schools are now under remote learning only. Michelle had worked in the small district for 14 years, most recently as a Title I Reading Specialist working in grades 1-6. She was described as “beloved” by school officials. From a farming family, she is reported to have had no health conditions putting her at increased risk. That she succumbed so quickly to the disease only underscores the acute danger staff and students face across the state. Marcus Cheatham, director of the mid-Michigan district health department, told Bridge Michigan that well over half of school districts in the three Central Michigan counties he covers have had to quarantine students because at least one student tested positive. In September, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer reversed her order to stop contact sports at state high schools, and games resumed in mid-September. This included CC-C, which played against another league team while the outbreak was in the school. Whitmer, a Democrat, was given her marching orders from GM, Ford and other corporations to reopen the schools. In the weeks since they reopened, cases are once again on the rise in many areas of the state, putting Michigan on a list with 31 other US states whose cases and deaths are rising again. It is alarming that a relatively small district like Carson City-Crystal, which local health department said it “did everything right,” has produced the state’s first teacher death of the fall. Michigan has reported 46 K-12 schools with new or ongoing outbreaks. This is not the total number of infections in schools, however. The state defines “outbreaks” as “two or more cases that share exposure on school grounds that come from different households.” Cases are ticking up as more schools open even as positivity rates are over 3 percent. Opening school buildings, many of them a half-century old or more, with poor ventilation, are creating new vectors for the spread of COVID.
A 'super healthy' 19-year-old college student has died from coronavirus complications - Chad Dorrill, a 19-year-old student at Appalachian State University, died Monday from complications related to COVID-19, the university reported. Dorrill, who was a "super healthy" star basketball player in high school, according to his mom and former coach, is the first reported coronavirus death in the University of North Carolina school system, which includes 16 colleges and universities. The death comes soon after some UNC campuses closed in-person classes due to increasing COVID rates, and as the proportion of young people infected nationally continues to climb. "The doctors said that Chad is the rarest 1 in 10,000,000 case," Dorrill's mom, Susan Dorrill, said through her son's former travel basketball team, according to WFMY. "But if it can happen to a super healthy 19-year-old boy who doesn't smoke, vape or do drugs, it can happen to anyone." According to a statement from the school system's chancellor, Peter Hans, Dorill lived off-campus and attended classes online. He started feeling sick in early September, and returned home near Thomasville, North Carolina, where he tested positive for COVID. After following isolation procedures and getting cleared by his doctor, he returned to Boone, where Appalachian State is located. He then experienced more complications, the statement says, and his family picked him up and took him to the hospital. "His family's wishes are for the university to share a common call to action so our entire campus community recognizes the importance of following COVID-19 safety protocols and guidelines," like mask-wearing, maintaining a 6 feet distance from others, and following strict sanitation guidelines, Hans wrote.
Nineteen-year-old North Carolina university student in “tremendous shape” dies from COVID-19 - On Monday, a 19-year-old college student at Appalachian State University in Boone, North Carolina, died from neurological complications after contracting COVID-19. Chad Dorrill, described as being in “tremendous shape” by his uncle, contracted the virus after his return to Boone for fall classes. After developing flu-like symptoms, Dorrill returned home, where he tested positive on September 7. After quarantining for 10 days, and being cleared by his doctor, he returned to school. Soon afterward, he began suffering serious neurological problems. “When he tried to get out of bed his legs were not working, and my brother had to carry him to the car and take him to the emergency room,” his uncle, David Dorrill, told the New York Times. “It was a COVID complication that rather than attacking his respiratory system attacked his brain.” Chad Dorrill (Family photo) Dorrill was a long-distance runner and former high school basketball player. “He was healthy. … Skinny. Could run six miles without any issue. He ran with us less than three weeks ago, in fact. He was healthy—until this hit,” his uncle explained. According to Tonia Maxcy, a family friend, doctors suspect that COVID-19 triggered an undetected case of Guillain-Barré syndrome in Dorrill. Guillain-Barré causes the body’s immune system to attack nerve cells. It was also linked to the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil in 2015, where it caused paralysis in those affected by the syndrome. As of June 29, according to the journal Neurological Sciences, there have been approximately 31 reported cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome caused by COVID-19 worldwide. Significantly, Dorrill was living off-campus, taking only online courses and, according to his uncle, “told us he was always careful to wear a mask.” Yet, he still contracted the virus, leading to his completely avoidable death. His mother, Susan Dorrill, said that “if it can happen to a super healthy 19-year-old boy who doesn’t smoke, vape or do drugs, it can happen to anyone.”
Michigan State University pushes forward with football amid a mass spike in COVID-19 casesSince August 24, there have been 1,250 cases of COVID-19 linked to the reopening of Michigan State University (MSU). The university has officially recorded 499 positive cases, which both the university and the Ingham County Health Department have acknowledged is an underestimation of the true number of cases. The sheer speed at which the virus is spreading is expressed by the fact that only 41 cases were known before the first of September. Just over a week ago, the Ingham County Health Department recommended the entire MSU campus self-quarantine after nearly 350 new cases emerged on campus. The health department followed this suggestion by instating a mandatory quarantine for 23 fraternity and sorority houses, and seven rental houses. Even with these measures, cases have exploded, reinforcing the basic fact that college and university campuses, where thousands of students live in dorms and other forms of student housing, cannot reopen safely. The outbreak at MSU is only the latest indictment of the ruling class’s homicidal back-to-work and back-to-school campaigns, spearheaded by the Trump administration and supported by the Democrats. Despite this massive outbreak, testing numbers are declining on the campus. In a statement given to the press last Tuesday, Linda Vail, a health officer of Ingham County, noted that MSU’s case count only includes self-reported positive cases. Vail also acknowledged the university’s refusal to use the official health department case data even though MSU relies on the county health department to carry out part of its contact tracing. In spite of this, Vail has called MSU “amazing partners” in fighting COVID-19. In the latest demonstration of her kowtowing to the MSU administration, Vail made clear she would not directly order MSU to cancel its first football game and would only “advise” them to do so. This dangerous complicity from local health officials is being promoted at the highest levels. Just in the past few weeks alone, the CDC modified its health guidelines to facilitate the reopening workplaces, schools, and college university campuses, under immense pressure from Washington.
Ohio State Prof Pens Hyperbolic Apology For His "Whiteness" After Suggesting College Football Could Unify The Nation - Last week, Ohio State professor Matthew Mayhew wrote an article called "Why America Needs College Football." The article advocated for, you guessed it, a return to college football - arguing it would be good for the nation.In his initial article, Mayhew wrote:As college campuses attempt to find a new normal suitable for the COVID-19 realities, college athletics, especially college football, have garnered much attention. Debates continue about whether players should be required to play this fall season.Although many people have been outspoken about the financial and health ramifications of allowing—or requiring—players to gear up, few, if any, have addressed the essential role that college football may play toward healing a democracy made more fragile by disease, racial unrest and a contested presidential election cycle."Essentializing college football might help get us through these uncharacteristically difficult times of great isolation, division and uncertainty. Indeed, college football holds a special bipartisan place in the American heart," he said. This week, Mayhew is writing a lengthy and possibly immensely hyperbolic apology for advocating for a sport that "places Black bodies at disproportional risk". "I recently led a piece in Inside Higher Ed titled 'Why America Needs College Football.' I am sorry for the hurt, sadness, frustration, fatigue, exhaustion and pain this article has caused anyone, but specifically Black students in the higher education community and beyond," Mayhew wrote in a part two, published in Inside Higher Ed. He continued, in an apology that was dripping with so much emotion that Reason suggested it could be satirical: I learned that I could have titled the piece "Why America Needs Black Athletes." I learned that Black men putting their bodies on the line for my enjoyment is inspired and maintained by my uninformed and disconnected whiteness and, as written in my previous article, positions student athletes as white property. I have learned that I placed the onus of responsibility for democratic healing on Black communities whose very lives are in danger every single day and that this notion of "democratic healing" is especially problematic since the Black community can't benefit from ideals they can't access. I have learned that words like "distraction" and "cheer" erase the present painful moments within the nation and especially the Black community. He continues: I am just beginning to understand how I have harmed communities of color with my words. I am learning that my words—my uninformed, careless words—often express an ideology wrought in whiteness and privilege. I am learning that my commitment to diversity has been performative, ignoring the pain the Black community and other communities of color have endured in this country. I am learning that I am not as knowledgeable as I thought I was, not as antiracist that thought I was, not as careful as I thought I was. For all of these, I sincerely apologize.
Washington's inability to agree on COVID relief puts future of colleges, universities at risk - A new academic year for the nation’s 4,300 colleges and universities has dawned with a little less of its customary pomp and pageantry. The excitement of move-in day was muted. There was less laughter at curbsides as students pulled bags out of cars (and parents suppressed welling tears). Fewer kickoffs are soaring into crisp blue skies. The angst that many Americans feel also exists on the nation’s campuses that educate 20 million students annually and employ 4 million people. As presidents of university systems, we are concerned about the health and safety of our university communities, and about the social and economic well-being of our states and of the nation. We are alarmed about the future of higher education institutions — indispensable centers of research, innovation and discovery — in America. Today, we serve as presidents of the University of Colorado and the University of Massachusetts, but in our previous lives, we served together in the U.S. House of Representatives. Though we were members of different parties, we believed in the absolute importance of collaboration and collegial engagement — and still do. Simply put, it would be a tragic mistake to allow the institutions that have driven America’s success and are essential to its future to wither during the COVID-19 siege. The CARES Act signed into law in March provided an initial round of pandemic-relief funding, but Washington’s inability to agree on a second comprehensive bill leaves higher education in significant jeopardy. We urge decision-makers to consider the severe pandemic-driven disruptions to these powerful drivers of economic development and social mobility. For colleges and universities across the nation, pandemic-related expenses already have been enormous and continue to mount. At the same time, our institutions are suffering severe revenue losses. As a recent Brookings Institution report noted, no institution is escaping the pandemic’s financial impact. “COVID-19 puts higher-ed finances at risk. For some universities, revenue shortfalls are going to bring pain — for other universities the shortfall may be a disaster,” the report said.
University Sets Up "Support Spaces" For Students Traumatized By Presidential Debate -- Ohio’s Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), the site of last night’s Presidential debate has set up dedicated ‘support spaces’ for students who have been triggered by the tense exchange. For any poor snowflake babies who couldn’t handle the nasty orange man telling Joe Biden “There’s nothing smart about you,” CWRU is providing a “confidential safe space” where they can talk and cry about it. The University says “students can discuss the impact of recent national events, including the presidential debate and upcoming election.” There are eight “presidential debate support spaces” available for students to attend, according to the university which asks that everybody use “respectful dialogue.” The spaces will remain active from Monday through to next Friday, for ‘virtual counselling sessions’. The university announced that the “Support Space is not a substitute for psychotherapy and does not constitute mental health treatment.” The spaces are a throwback to 2016 when education centers offered counseling after Trump won the election. As Campus Reform notes, the University of Massachusetts-Boston, sponsored a “Coping and Balance” workshop in which students were able to interact with “Doggo, the therapy dog.” Imagine the total meltdown that will occur if Trump wins a second term.
Students Are Rebelling Against Eye-Tracking Exam Surveillance Tools - As a privacy-minded computer science student preparing to start his first year at Miami University, Erik Johnson was concerned this fall when he learned that two of his professors would require him to use the digital proctoring software Proctorio for their classes. The software turns students’ computers into powerful invigilators—webcams monitor eye and head movements, microphones record noise in the room, and algorithms log how often a test taker moves their mouse, scrolls up and down on a page, and pushes keys. The software flags any behavior its algorithm deems suspicious for later viewing by the class instructor. In the end, Johnson never had to use Proctorio. Not long after he began airing his concerns on Twitter and posted a simple analysis of thesoftware’s code on Pastebin, he discovered that his IP address was banned from accessing the company’s services. He also received a direct message from Proctorio’s CEO, Mike Olsen, who demanded that he take the Pastebin posts down, according to a copy of the message Johnson shared with Motherboard. Johnson refused to do so, and is now waiting to see if Proctorio will follow up with more concrete legal action, as it has done toother critics in recent weeks.“If my professors weren’t flexible, I’d be completely unable to take exams,” Johnson said. “It’s insane to think that a company [or] CEO can affect my academic career just for raising concerns.”His case is just one example of how college campuses are revolting against the use of digital proctoring software, and the aggressive tactics employed by proctoring companies in response to those efforts. In recent weeks, students have started online petitions calling for universities across the world to abandon the tools, and faculty on some campuses, like the University of California Santa Barbara, have led similar campaigns, arguing that universities should explore new forms of assessment rather than subjecting students to surveillance. “We need to really think long and hard about how we are adapting,” Jennifer Holt, a film and media studies professor at UCSB, told Motherboard. "We’re supposed to be protecting our students.”
Millennials Say They're Even Less Likely To Have Kids Now Thanks To COVID-19 --The world's most developed countries are seeing population growth slow to a crawl, with the population of Japan, the EU and the US now expected to shrink between now and the beginning of the latter half of the 21st Century. As we noted on Jan. 1, the US recorded the slowest rate of population growth in a century between 2018 and 2019, thanks to the one-two punch of lower birth rates and declining immigration. But the US is in comparatively good shape relative to Japan, which is already seeing deaths outstrip births. With more younger people delaying family formation to focus on their careers, millennials are having children later than any prior generation. And as economists try to parse the long-term impact on the coronavirus pandemic on long-term demographic trends, it looks like - if anything - the outbreak has further soured many millennials on the notion of child-rearing. A new study from Morning Consult found that 15% of millennials are less interested in having children because of the pandemic, while 17% said they would delay having children because of it. Another 7% said they're now more interested in having children (perhaps after bonding with a relatively new partner during the lockdowns). To be sure, MC surveyed 4,400 adults from Sept. 8-10, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point; the number of childless adults surveyed totaled 2,201 people with a 2 percentage point margin of error, and the margin of error for the childless millennials subsample is 4 points.“That’s a very dramatic change in behavior,” said Dr. Phillip Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley College and former senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers who studies the economics of fertility. "All these things are foreshadowing what we might expect to see happen in a few months, when we see the first of the children conceived during the pandemic start being born."When asked why they don't want kids, millennials cite myriad reasons all of which relate back to not feeling financially secure enough (though a few cited climate change).
Shit for Brains - In Jean-Luc Godard’s Alphaville (1965), there are no dazzling futuristic technologies, not even evil ones. Instead, there are only the run-down remains of architecture built when people imagined the future would be different. That, plus a supercomputer watches your every move. The future looks like the present, only more so.Our current situation is more Alphaville than Black Mirror: amid worsening ecological and infrastructural collapse, the only technology that seems to steadily upgrade are mobile devices offering escape into the virtual. Everything is falling apart by mistake except for your iPhone, which is falling apart by design. Given the lack of options, even a villain offering an alternative might look like a reprieve. This is one way to account for the credulity that greeted claims Elon Musk made in his press event for Neuralink last month, even from those who consider themselves his critics. In the first public demonstration by the secretive neural implant company since a similar event held last July, Musk trotted out pigs who had for the past two months lived with a prototype of Neuralink’s device in their skulls. Flashing a slide that named diseases spanning addiction, memory loss, blindness, anxiety, and paralysis, Musk reasoned that each malady is caused by “electrical signals sent by neurons to your brain.” As a result, “if you correct these signals, you can solve everything from memory loss . . . to depression.” Later, in an aside too labored to be spontaneous, he said you could “think of [the device] as a Fitbit in your skull.” In its current iteration, the “Link” is a chip the size of a silver dollar, implanted flush with the skull and attached to flexible electrode threads containing 1,024 channels that are “sewn” across the cortex, the outermost layer of the brain. The chip compresses information gathered by the electrodes about the brain, identifying patterns by listening in on the bursts of electrical activity known as “spikes” that occur when a neuron fires. Once the device has matched the in-vivo spike to its coded templates, it can pare down the “noise” of a cacophonous live brain into a digital “signal,” small enough to be transmitted by a low-bandwidth interface like Bluetooth. This may sound impressive, but by the standards of current neuromodulation, the Link is underwhelming. Scientists have been recording the brain’s neural spikes since 1868, and using inlying electrodes hooked into computers since 1951. The cascade of Aphex Twin-style musical tones Musk played at the demo, representing “real-time signals” transmitted by the Link, can be created over a lunch break by anyone with a computer program capable of assigning a musical note to a numeric value. According to Andrew Jackson, a professor of neural interfaces at Newcastle University, 1,024 channels is hardly impressive, and the fact that the device could roughly predict a pig’s movement when walking echoes findings that have already been published. Even in terms of Neuralink’s basic near-term goals, a neuromodulation device called NeuroPace that went on the market in 2013 is already capable of sensing brain activity and intervening in neural circuitry in real time to prevent seizures.
One Ohio Hospital Went Offline For A Week, Surgeries Canceled, Amid Spate Of Ransomware Attacks - Earlier we detailed that computer systems for Universal Health Systems (UHS), a major hospital and healthcare provider with over 400 locations across the U.S., was hit with what appears to be one of the largest medical cyberattacks in US history.Demonstrating just how prone America's vital infrastructure remains to large-scale cyber attacks which could debilitate the country's response efforts in emergency situations, the spate of ransomware attacks have impacted the operations of 53 US health care providers or health care systems so far this year, according a cybersecurity firm cited in the latest NBC report on the attacks.The worst and most recent instance was centered on a major Cleveland area hospital, which was taken offline for a full week following an apparent cyberattack. The damage from the hack of the Ashtabula County Medical Center's systems was so bad that all elective procedures at the hospital had to be postponed, reports NBC. The facility's computer systems have been offline since Monday, Sept. 21, according to hospital officials. It's as yet unclear when full hospital operations will be restored, though elective procedures are expected to begin again this week. “As a result of this incident, we have postponed all elective procedures through Wednesday, Sept. 30,” the medical center CEO Michael Habowski said. “Our emergency department remains open to life-threatening emergencies and walk-in patients, and our outpatient departments and physician offices are continuing to provide care for patients."Once inside a system via malicious software which encrypts key files, hackers typically demand payment as a condition for restoring network capabilities. That appears to have happened in this case, part of a broader worrisome trend of hackers targeting American health and industrial sectors.
"Supply Has Been Decimated": California Mask Shortage Has Worsened Due To Wildfire Smoke -N95 masks were already in hot demand when wildfires on the West Coast started blanketing the entire coast with smoke. It seems that it isn't just the pandemic that California is doing a poor job at managing - but also the state's growing wildfire problem.The kicker is that both issues are spurring a massive demand for masks - and the state is having a shortage. Now, West Coast residents like Lindsey Major, who is 25 and has asthma, are desperate to find N95 masks. “You can breathe, but it’s like something weighing on your chest. My lungs felt like they were full of wet bands,” she told Bloomberg. She was able to finally get one mask after posting desperately on a Facebook group. The very same masks that are being recommended by the CDC to filter out Covid were "almost unfindable" as air quality on the West Coast deteriorated due to the wildfires. Supply has been "decimated". Now, with weeks to go in wildfire season, dozens of fires across California resulted in 3.7 million acres burning. Smoke from the fires has been pushed into major cities, resulting in orange skies - some photographs of which we posted days ago here. Health departments have been urging citizens to stay inside as much as possible, despite the fact that most homes lack high grade air filters. President Trump used the Defense Production Act back in April to force 3M to continue to make N95 masks. The company is predicting output of 95 million masks per month in October, which is up from 50 million in June. But officials from many states still claim they are having trouble purchasing PPE, including masks. And emergency mask shipments "are hardly making it into the hands of the general public," according to Bloomberg. Instead, many requests for masks are going directly to first responders and health-care workers. Aaron Bourne, the general manager at W.C. Winks Hardware in Portland, said he sold out of a shipment of 100 masks in less than 2 business days. Joel Kaufman, a doctor and professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington, concluded that the masks should be saved for emergency workers close to fires that have been fitted for them: “The people we worry most about -- the people with chronic lung conditions – aren’t good candidates to wear these masks, because the masks increase the amount of work it takes to get air in and out. The folks who need it the most are, sort of, the least able to tolerate wearing them.”
One-third of US parents say they won't vaccinate their kids against flu this year -Despite contrary public health messaging encouraging influenza vaccinations with the looming threat of duel outbreaks of the flu and COVID-19 this winter, new data suggest that approximately 32 percent of parents will not have their children get a flu vaccine. Results from a survey conducted by Michigan Medicine’s C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital reveals 1 in 3 parents doesn’t plan to have their children get a flu vaccine this year, the Detroit Free Press reports. Health experts have reiterated the importance of getting a flu vaccine this year as the U.S. still battles the coronavirus. In preparation for mass demand, the U.S. government has ordered around 194 to 198 million doses of the influenza vaccine — a record order number. If the population develops a broad immunity against the flu, it will help prevent hospitals and health care systems from being overrun with both influenza and COVID-19-related illnesses. Unfortunately, this public health messaging may not have resonated with the entire population. “The pandemic doesn’t seem to be changing parents’ minds about the importance of the flu vaccine,” the poll analysis says. “It could be a double whammy flu season this year as the nation already faces a viral deadly disease with nearly twin symptoms.” The hospital polled roughly 2,000 parents of children aged 2 to 18 in August, and found many parents don’t regard the flu vaccine as “more urgent or necessary” against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. One leading reason prompting some parents not to vaccinate their children comes from wanting to keep them away from health care facilities and potential COVID-19 exposure during the pandemic, with 14 percent of respondents avoiding vaccine sites for this reason. Longstanding misinformation surrounding flu vaccines also motivates some parents to opt out of the flu vaccine for their child, such as misinformation about side effects or the efficacy of the vaccine. Children have been found to be major spreaders of COVID-19 largely due to the asymptomatic effect it has on young patients, but they also spread influenza with similar ferocity. The National Foundation for Infectious Disease (NFID) says that children are major spreaders of the flu because they may pass on larger viral loads of bacteria for a longer period of time than adults.
COVID-19 vs. Seasonal Influenza - Which is the Bigger Killer? - In a recent posting, I took a brief look at how government data clearly shows the real story behind the COVID-19 pandemic. In this posting, I will take a look at government data, in this case, from Canada, and compare deaths from seasonal influenza (2018 season) to deaths from COVID-19 by age range. Given the penchant of the mainstream media andn its over exuberance to propagate fear, the real, unreported data may surprise you. Here is a graph showing the number of deaths from seasonal influenza and pneumonia as reported by Statistics Canada which you can find at this link:Here is a graph showing the number of deaths from COVID-19 current to September 24, 2020 as reported by on the Canadian government Public Health Infobase which you can find at this link: Here is a graph showing the difference between the number of deaths due to seasonal influenza and pneumonia (2018) and COVID-19:In total, to this point, 706 more people have died from COVID-19 than died during the 2018 influenza season and 636 of those deaths took place in people that were aged 70 and older, an indictment of the federal and provincial governments' treatment of its most vulnerable seniors rather than a reflection of the threat of the virus to human life. So, to recap, we have to ask ourselves; was all of this worth the massive economic shutdown and the $350 billion plus addition to the national debt, an issue that will face generations into the distant future? While each death, no matter what the cause, is a private tragedy, the overreaction by government since March 2020 begs the question; are we all part of some massive scheme to remake society particularly given that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Canada has done this:
Adolescents twice as likely as young children to test positive for COVID-19 Adolescents are twice as likely as young children to test positive for COVID-19, according to a new analysis released Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Between March 1 and Sept. 19, more than 277,000 children tested positive for COVID-19; 63 percent were between the ages of 12 and 17 while 37 percent were between the ages of 5 and 11. “Incidence among adolescents was approximately double that among younger children throughout the reporting period,” the authors wrote in the analysis. From May to September, the average weekly incidence among adolescents was 37.4 cases per 100,000 compared to 19 cases per 100,000 for younger children, the report reads. Hispanic and Black children were disproportionately more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than their white peers. Hispanic and Latino children in both age groups made up nearly 42 percent of positive cases, while Black children represented 17 percent of positive cases, despite making up about 26 percent and 14 percent of the population, respectively. About 3 percent of adolescents and 2 percent of younger children who tested positive had at least one underlying health condition, but those who experienced serious COVID-19 illness were more likely to have one. Lung disease, including asthma, was most commonly reported. Only 3,240 children who tested positive for COVID-19 were hospitalized, and 16 percent had at least one underlying condition. Of the more than 400 children who were admitted to the intensive care unit, 27 percent had at least one underlying health condition. Of the 51 children who died, 28 percent had an underlying health condition, according to the report. There were also racial disparities in COVID-19 hospitalizations and among children, the authors wrote. “Although mortality and hospitalization in school-aged children was low, Hispanic ethnicity, Black race, and underlying conditions were more commonly reported among children who were hospitalized or admitted to an ICU, providing additional evidence that some children might be at increased risk for severe illness associated with COVID-19,” the authors wrote. Schools across the country have resumed in-person instruction, raising questions about how many kids are getting COVID-19. Experts think most kids who get COVID-19 will show no symptoms, but it is likely they are spreading the virus to some adults. However, it appears to be the 20-29 age group that is playing the largest role in the spread of COVID-19, the authors wrote.
How Children Fend Off Corona Virus - Why the coronavirus affects children much less severely than adults has become an enduring mystery of the pandemic. The vast majority of children do not get sick; when they do, they usually recover.The first study to compare the immune response in children with that in adults suggests a reason for children’s relative good fortune. In children, a branch of the immune system that evolved to protect against unfamiliar pathogens rapidly destroys the coronavirus before it wreaks damage on their bodies, according to the research, published this week in Science Translational Medicine.“The bottom line is, yes, children do respond differently immunologically to this virus, and it seems to be protecting the kids,” said Dr. Betsy Herold, a pediatric infectious disease expert at Albert Einstein College of Medicine who led the study.In adults, the immune response is much more muted, she and her colleagues found.When the body encounters an unfamiliar pathogen, it responds within hours with a flurry of immune activity, called an innate immune response. The body’s defenders are quickly recruited to the fight and begin releasing signals calling for backup.Children more often encounter pathogens that are new to their immune systems. Their innate defense is fast and overwhelming.Over time, as the immune system encounters pathogen after pathogen, it builds up a repertoire of known villains. By the time the body reaches adulthood, it relies on a more sophisticated and specialized system adapted to remembering and fighting specific threats.The adaptive system makes sense biologically because adults rarely encounter a virus for the first time, said Dr. Michael Mina, a pediatric immunologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Epidemiology in Boston.But the coronavirus is new to everyone, and the innate system fades as adults grow older, leaving them more vulnerable. In the time it takes for an adult body to get the specialized adaptive system up and running, the virus has had time to do harm, Dr. Herold’s research suggests.
Covid-19: Social distancing is more effective than travel bans - Forecasting the spreading of a pandemic is paramount in helping governments to enforce a number of social and economic measures, apt at curbing the pandemic and dealing with its aftermath.Now researchers present an efficient model to study and forecast the spreading dynamics and containment across different regions of the world.
- - We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak, says Professor of theoretical physics, Francesco Sannino, University of Southern Denmark and Danish Institute of Advanced Science, continuing:
- - The results corroborate our finding that the travel across regions sparks the epidemic diffusion, which then develops in each region independently.
Virus-induced pandemics like Covid-19 are a threat to humans not only because of the number of human lives taken but also because of the profound and long-lasting impact on the economy and social dynamics.While different empirical models already exist to describe the epidemic dynamics locally and globally, a coherent framework is missing. Using a powerful language and methodology borrowed from high energy physics, Professor Sannino and his colleague Giacomo Cacciapaglia from University of Lyon, can now study and forecast the spreading dynamics and containment across different regions of the world. - We plan on embarking on a world-wide monitoring to make global projections that will help governments and industries make containment plans and strategize about reopening society and how to best implement border control, says Professor Sannino.
Hydroxychloroquine no more effective than placebo in preventing COVID-19 - In a clinical trial testing whether a daily regimen of hydroxychloroquine could protect those most likely to be exposed to COVID-19, researchers from the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania found there was no difference in infection rates among health care workers who took the drug versus those taking a placebo. While the researchers observed a lack of effect associated with hydroxychloroquine, infection levels were low among the participants, which the researchers believe points to the effectiveness of other prevention measures in the health system: social distancing, use of personal protective equipment, and proper hand hygiene. The study was published today in JAMA Internal Medicine. The researchers were able to analyze a pool of 125 physicians, nurses, certified nursing assistants, emergency technicians, and respiratory therapists that they recruited for the study. This population worked in several different areas of the two University hospitals, including the emergency departments and COVID-19 units. Roughly half of the participants in the study took hydroxychloroquine while the other half took a matching placebo (a cellulose pill). The study was double-blinded, meaning neither the researchers, nor the participants knew which drug they were assigned. Extensive testing was used to rigorously prove who did or did not contract the virus. Each person received swab and antibody testing for COVID-19 at the start of their participation in the study, halfway through, and at the end--an eight-week span during the study period that began April 9 and ended July 14, 2020. Participants also had electrocardiogram (ECG) tests because of concerns about hydroxychloroquine causing heart rhythm problems in severe cases of COVID-19. "To really test the potential of HCQ as a prevention drug, we felt it was key to recruit health care workers with many hours of direct physical exposure to COVID-19 patients, then randomize them in a double-blind manner between hydroxychloroquine or a matching placebo, and treat them for a long period of time," said Amaravadi. "Through that whole time, we monitored participants closely for their safety." At the end of the study, 6.3 percent of those who took the hydroxychloroquine had tested positive for COVID-19 while 6.6 percent of those who took the placebos were positive. None required hospitalization. Additionally, there was no difference detected in the heart rhythms between those in either arm of the study, which showed that while the drug had no preventive effect, it was also not detrimental, outside of some temporary side effects like diarrhea for some.
Cloth Masks to reduce COVID19 transmission - For discussion of virus transmission, we tend to differentiate between aerosols and droplets. Aerosols are particles that stay in the air a long time and are smaller than about 100 μm. Droplets drop to the ground in a short amount of time, and a small distance, and are larger than about 100 μm. Viruses themselves are only about 0.1 μm in size, smaller than any of the particles in your breath. They are not present in your breath on their own, they will always be attached to an aerosol or a droplet. Airborne transmission of COVID19 via aerosols and droplets in our breath has been established by a number of scientific papers, effectively summarized in a concise and easy to read commentary in Clinical Infectious Diseases, “It Is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)“, published in July 2020 by Morawska and Milton, supported by 237 clinicians, infectious-disease physicians, epidemiologists, engineers and aerosol scientists. Prof Linsey Marr (Engineering Professor at Virginia Tech with expertise in airborne transmission of viruses) also summarize the science behind this in an op-ed in the New York Times, and Prof Jose Jimenez (Chemistry Professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder with expertise in aerosols) did likewise in Time Magazine. Aerosols (the smaller particles in our breath) and droplets (the larger particles in our breath) behave differently in the air. All particles in the air are affected by gravity, which makes them fall to the ground. Smaller particles are also affected by Brownian Motion, which is when they are bumped around by hitting into gas molecules in the air. The combination of gravity and brownian motion means that smaller particles take a lot longer to fall to the ground than big particles. An aerosol of 0.2 μm diameter would take about 10 days to fall from of a person’s mouth above the ground. A droplet of 200 μm would do it in just 3 seconds. The speed of exhaled aerosols and droplets can vary a lot, but we can take around 1 m/s as a rough guide for breathing, and around 5 m/s for sneezing, using measurements in this paper from Tang et al. Therefore, you can avoid a lot of the large droplets (bigger than about 100 μm) coming out of someone’s nose or mouth simply by standing a few meters away from them, but this DOES NOT WORK for aerosols. Outside (or in a well-ventilated, uncrowded indoor space) aerosols will become more dilute the further away from the person emitting them you are. This makes distancing helpful, but not fully protective. The size of a particle also affects the direction they travel in. Large droplets have a lot of inertia, and so tend to travel in straight lines. Small particles have very little inertia and so tend to follow the direction of the air flow, even as it bends around corners. This has important implications of mask fit, which I will talk about later.
Why Hospitals Can’t Handle Covid Surges: They’re Flying Blind – WSJ -- El Centro Regional Medical Center was overrun with dozens of Covid-19 patients in May, with nowhere to send the critically ill. The only other hospital in Imperial County, Calif., also was swamped. Chief Executive Adolphe Edward called the state’s emergency medical services director, asking him to intervene. “Please, please help us,” he pleaded. Doctors and nurses at El Centro swapped text messages and made phone calls, blindly searching for openings at other hospitals. In the emergency room, coronavirus patient Jose Manuel Abundis Gomez waited. It took 20 hours to find another hospital with a bed for the 71-year-old retired state administrator, said Alidad Zadeh, his primary care physician. By the time Mr. Abundis was finally transferred, his oxygen levels had dropped. He later died. During a pandemic, hospitals and local, state and federal agencies rely on a range of real-time metrics to respond to emergencies quickly. They need to know how many beds are available at each facility, whether hospitals need more nurses and the available number of ventilators and other critical supplies. That way, patients can get transferred quickly and medicine distributed to those in most need. The U.S. has tried—and failed—over the past 15 years to build a system to share such information in a crisis. When the pandemic started, nothing like it existed. The limited and inconsistent access to data has been a major impediment to providing hospital care during the pandemic, according to interviews with industry and government officials and thousands of internal documents and emails. Weeks after the coronavirus surfaced, administration officials began putting together a solution. It was riddled with mistakes and slowed by competing agency attempts to solve the problem, the interviews and documents show. Today, with some U.S. cities bracing for more cases, there is still no viable way to broadly track what’s happening inside hospitals. “It’s staggering to most people how little visibility there is outside of a particular health system,” said Gregg Margolis, a former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services emergency health planning official. “Every time these things happen everybody throws their hands up and says, ‘I can’t believe these things don’t work more closely together.’ ”
Thousands of excess deaths from cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales -- A major new study has identified 2085 excess deaths in England and Wales due to heart disease and stroke during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. On average, that is 17 deaths each day over four months that probably could have been prevented.Excess deaths are the number of deaths above what is normally expected - and the figure relates to the period from 2 March to 30 June, 2020. The scientists believe the excess deaths were caused by people not seeking emergency hospital treatment for a heart attack or other acute cardiovascular illness requiring urgent medical attention, either because they were afraid of contracting COVID-19 or were not referred for treatment. Over the same period, there was a sharp rise in the proportion of people who died at home or in a care home from acute cardiovascular diseases. "It is entirely plausible that a number of deaths could have been prevented if people had attended hospital quickly when they began to experience their heart attack or stroke. The sad irony is that previous research we have undertaken showed that nationwide heart attack services remained fully operational and continued to deliver high quality care during the peak of the pandemic." The findings, based on an analysis of the information contained on death certificates, have ben published in the journal Heart.The investigation was carried out by a team of data scientists and clinicians, led by academics at the University of Leeds. The other collaborators were from Keele University, NHS Digital, the Office for National Statistics, Barts Health NHS Trust, and University College London. This is the third major study from academics investigating how the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected emergency cardiovascular services. "This study is the first to give a detailed and comprehensive picture of what was happening to people who were acutely ill with cardiovascular disease cross England and Wales. "It reveals a large number of excess deaths. The findings will help Government and the NHS to develop messages that ensure people who are very ill do seek help."
A potentially overlooked factor in Sweden's coronavirus strategy: more than half of households consist of just 1 person - Four generations of the Garg family live in a four-story building in Delhi, India. In May, Mukul Garg wrote in a blog post that his 57-year-old uncle had gotten the coronavirus, probably after exposure during a routine grocery run. From there, he told the BBC, 10 other family members caught it too, turning his home into a sick ward overnight. Research shows, unsurprisingly, that household outbreaks like this fuel coronavirus transmission within communities."The role of households in overall societal transmission is quite significant," Yang Yang, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, told Business Insider.It follows, then, that disparities in household sizes between countries could partially explain their differing outcomes.Take Sweden, where more than half of households consist of just one person. Roughly one-third of Sweden's elderly population lives alone, compared to one-fifth of elderly residents in Greece or Spain. Sweden also has a lower proportion of multigenerational households than most other European countries, and one of thesmallest average household sizes in Europe: about 2.2 people per home. Sweden drew attention and condemnation for its decision to keep primary schools, restaurants, bars, and gyms open throughout the pandemic. But its small households may give the virus fewer opportunities to spread there — which can slow transmission.Indeed, experts say these demographic factors likely contributed tothe stark decline in Sweden's coronavirus deaths since June.
A guide to how — and when — a Covid-19 vaccine could be cleared - In a U.S. pandemic response dominated by missteps, the effort to develop vaccines to prevent Covid-19 has so far been a triumph. Vaccines against the coronavirus that causes the disease are now racing through giant clinical trials as a result.It’s a terrible irony, then, that the Trump administration’s statements have resulted in an erosion of public trust, with the percent of Americans who tell pollsters they would take a Covid-19 vaccine dropping and experts worrying the president could compel the Food and Drug Administration to approve a vaccine before one is ready. (Spoiler: No vaccine will likely be ready by Election Day.) “When the the president comes out and says, ‘by a very special day, we might have a vaccine,’ the whole thing blows up,” Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown School of Public Health, said at a session focused on Covid-19 at the STAT Health Tech Summit. “In some ways, we’ve got to get the politicians to shut up and let the scientists talk about this and drive this process.”The process of deciding when a vaccine appears to be safe and effective isn’t as straightforward as the general public might believe. But it’s important to understand it if we are to have confidence in these critical tools for helping to curb the pandemic. Here, then, is a rundown of the science that goes into the decision-making process, what it tells us about when results could realistically be available, and when vaccines could start to be administered. This story is based on interviews as well as on documents the drug makers have released detailing their clinical trial plans.
Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity? -British Medical Journal - It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging research on immunological responses. Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, serological surveys since the peak indicate that at most only around a fifth of people have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: 23% in New York, 18% in London, 11% in Madrid.123 Among the general population the numbers are substantially lower, with many national surveys reporting in single digits.With public health responses around the world predicated on the assumption that the virus entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity before the pandemic,4 serosurvey data are leading many to conclude that the virus has, as Mike Ryan, WHO’s head of emergencies, put it, “a long way to burn.”Yet a stream of studies that have documented SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in people without exposure to the virus are raising questions about just how new the pandemic virus really is, with many implications.At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with no known exposure to the virus.5678910In a study of donor blood specimens obtained in the US between 2015 and 2018, 50% displayed various forms of T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.511 A similar study that used specimens from the Netherlands reported T cell reactivity in two of 10 people who had not been exposed to the virus.7 In Germany reactive T cells were detected in a third of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy donors (23 of 68). In Singapore a team analysed specimens taken from people with no contact or personal history of SARS or covid-19; 12 of 26 specimens taken before July 2019 showed reactivity to SARS-CoV-2, as did seven of 11 from people who were seronegative against the virus.8 Reactivity was also discovered in the UK and Sweden.6910
Charting the pandemic over the next 12 months — and beyond – STAT - Throughout the pandemic, what’s maddened U.S. public health experts has been the nation’s inability and unwillingness to take the steps that could reduce illness and death, steps that other countries have used with success. Instead, we’re trying to force the activities — commerce, schools, and festivities — that controlling the virus in the first place would enable but that, in our case, are contributing to infection counts.“There’s this attitude that public health measures are getting in the way of opening up the country,” Fauci, the country’s most prominent infectious disease expert, told STAT. “It’s exactly the opposite. In a prudent way, the public health measures are the gateway, the vehicle, the pathway to opening the country. That’s the point that gets lost in this that’s so frustrating.” Overstretched ambulance crews. Overflowing hospitals. Overstuffed morgues. The grimmest images from the spring and summer peaks could appear again this fall and winter if the country doesn’t drive its case count down urgently.“If we’re not going into the fall with a huge running start in terms of having cases at very, very low levels … we run the risk of having uncontrollable outbreaks,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. People are returning to offices or schools and interacting with others more. Residents of the northern half of the country, who embraced al-fresco summers, will move indoors. States and cities are inclined to keep easing restrictions. Then there’s the virus itself.While this is our first fall with SARS-2, experts believe that its activity could accelerate as temperatures drop, as is the case with other viruses, including the four coronaviruses that cause common colds. These viruses survive longer in cold, dry settings, tied to a measure called absolute humidity. But the virus spread like gossip this summer in the South. Was the heat really slowing it down? To an extent, experts think. But whatever advantage summer provided was overtaken by the fact that none of us was protected against the virus, and that restrictions like closing bars were lifted. “The summer epidemic probably would have been worse if it had been winter,” said disease ecologist Marta Shocket of UCLA.
September 28 COVID-19 Test Results -The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 960,631 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 36,741 positive tests.Over 21,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 3.8% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the June low.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low some time in October (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
New York City Under Pressure; CDC Funds Stalled: Virus Update - New York faced pressure as middle and high schools reopened, infection rates in virus hot spots rose further and the city’s bond rating was cut by Moody’s. A $1 billion funding package to help the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fight Covid-19 has remained mostly unspent, people familiar with the matter said. Pfizer Inc. Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said he’s disappointed that vaccine plans were discussed during this week’s U.S. presidential debate “in political terms rather than scientific facts.” President Donald Trump’s campaign moved a weekend re-election rally in Wisconsin after complaints by local officials. In Europe, Paris may close bars and restaurants again and additional restrictions on movement were imposed in Madrid. Ireland’s cases are at the highest level since its lockdown eased. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases pass 34 million; deaths exceed 1 million
- Pelosi says major differences to be bridged in stimulus negotiations
- New York, San Francisco rents plunge in work-at-home shift
- Covid-19 surge in Wisconsin started with back-to-school college kids
- New York City downgraded by Moody’s due to pandemic fallout
- Pandemics overtake climate change as biggest worry for insurers
- English soccer could be next in line for a coronavirus bailout
- Remote work is letting people take epic road trips during Covid
- Rapid Covid tests could give America a bit of life back
- Gilead will take charge of distributing its Covid-19 treatment
Coronavirus dashboard for September 30: a portrait of dismal societal failure (see graphics) A number of weeks back, I looked at how each US State was doing by way of a color coding system based on the global history of the pandemic. Here’s the system:
- Deep Red (general alarm out-of-control fire): 200+ infections per million, 5+ deaths per million.
- Red (3 alarm fire): 100-200 infections, 2-5 deaths
- Orange (2 alarm fire): 60-100 infections, 1-2 deaths
- Yellow (1 alarm fire):40-60 infections, 0.5-1 deaths
- Blue (smoldering/1 alarm fire): 20-40 infections, 0.2-0.5 deaths
- Green (embers): 0-20 infections, 0-0.2 deaths
Here’s how all 50 States, plus DC and Puerto Rico, fit into that paradigm, for infections only. Deep Red (general alarm out-of-control fire): 200+ infections per million: 14 States (ND, SD, WI, UT, IA, AR, MT, OK, ID, NE, MO, KS, AL)+ Puerto Rico (up from 5 five weeks ago). Red (3 alarm fire): 100-200 infections per million: 17 States: (WY, TN, SC, NC, MN, MS, KY, IL, NV, AK, IN, TX, DE, FL, GA, LA, WV), (down from 19 five weeks ago) Orange (2 alarm fire): 60-100 infections per million: 15 States: (CO, NM. MI, VA, RI, OH, CA, MD, HI, PA, MA, WA, OR, AZ, NJ) (up from 10 five weeks ago) Yellow (1 alarm fire):40-60 infections per million: 2 States: (NY, CT) plus DC (down from 6 five weeks ago) B lue (smoldering/1 alarm fire): 20-40 infections per million: 2 States: (NH, ME) (down from 3 five weeks ago) Green (embers): 0- 20 infections per million 1 State (VT) ( down from 3 five weeks ago) In case it isn’t already clear, there are 31 jurisdictions that are Red or Deep Red now, vs. 24 five weeks ago. On the other hand, there are only 5 jurisdictions that are Yellow, Blue, or Green now vs. 12 five weeks ago. This is the portrait of dismal societal failure. About the only good news is that a number of States that were previously out of control about a month ago panicked enough to take effective steps to rein in the pandemic at least somewhat.
September 30 COVID-19 Test Results - The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 715,182 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 44,391 positive tests.Over 23,000 Americans died from COVID in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.2% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the June low.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low towards the end of October (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).
Trump to Self-Quarantine After Aide Tests Positive: Virus Update - U.S. President Donald Trump said he would begin self-quarantine while waiting for coronavirus test results after Hope Hicks, one of his closest aides, tested positive for Covid-19. Hicks traveled with Trump aboard Air Force One to and from the presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday. Amazon.com Inc. said close to 20,000 of its employees had tested positive for the virus during the pandemic. A $1 billion funding package to help the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fight Covid-19 has remained mostly unspent, people familiar with the matter said. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases pass 34.1 million; deaths exceed 1 million
- How Russia Shortened the Covid Vaccine Race to Declare Victory
- Pelosi says major differences to be bridged in stimulus negotiations
- New York, San Francisco rents plunge in work-at-home shift
- Covid-19 surge in Wisconsin started with back-to-school college kids
- English soccer could be next in line for a coronavirus bailout
NY Suffers Another 1,500+ New COVID-19 Cases As Cuomo Threatens To Fine "Non-Compliant" Communities: Live Updates -New York reported more than 1,500 new cases again on Friday, one of the biggest daily increases the city has seen since ending its lockdown.Today's update on the numbers: Of the 119,493 tests reported yesterday, 1,598 were positive (1.34% of total). Total hospitalizations are at 648.Sadly, there were 7 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/IM3j0O7uMI — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) October 2, 2020New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo delivered a warning Friday to the state’s mayors and local governments that could also be interpreted as a jab at de Blasio: either enforce coronavirus-related mask and social gathering laws, or your community could be fined as much as $10,000 for each day of noncompliance.20 zip codes have been identified as "hot spots", with most of them in the outer boroughs of NYC, or in Rockland, or Orange counties, two NY counties that are in the southern part of the state.Of the tests conducted in the hotspot ZIP codes, 6.4% were positive. Cuomo said he would be sending a note to local officials saying they “have to step up the compliance," Cuomo said. “If the local governments don’t step up the compliance, they will actually be in violation of the law and they can be fined.” The biggest COVID-19-related news overnight between Thursday and Friday was unquestionably the news that President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus. Top administration officials are scrambling to get tested, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has decided to cancel a trip to Asia scheduled for later this week out of an ""abundance of caution", despite testing negative. No decision has been made yet, Pompeo told a group of journalists on the flight from Rome to Dubrovnik in Croatia. "I spoke with the Vice President's office this morning as well," Pompeo said. "We're taking this obviously very seriously." Nancy Pelosi said earlier that she hoped Trump's experience with the virus might prompt him to take the threat more seriously. With Russia's COVID-19 outbreak still ravaging Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered "sincere support" to President Trump and the First Lady. The Kremlin says Putin sent Trump a telegram saying "I hope that your inherent vitality, good spirits and optimism will help you cope with the dangerous virus." It comes as Russia reports 9,412 new infections, its highest daily tally since May 23, pushing the national total to 1,194,643 cases, while Moscow, the epicenter of the Russian outbreak, reported 2,704 cases alone. 186 people had died nationwide in the last 24 hours, bringing the official death toll to 21,077, though some claim that death toll probably underestimates the true tally.
New York Spikes Again; WHO Faults U.S. Response: Virus Update - A top World Health Organization official said the outbreak at the White House constituted a “cluster,” suggesting that the U.S. had yet to “get this disease under control.” President Donald Trump went to Walter Reed hospital for a “few days” after he was treated with an “antibody cocktail.”Democratic nominee Joe Biden tested negative for the virus, as did several senior administration officials including Vice President Mike Pence. New York reported its highest cases since June as infections continued to surge in hot-spot neighborhoods in the city.U.S. cases rose 0.7%, above the average 0.6% daily increase of the last week. Women, especially those in the age group most likely to have young children, are dropping out of the job market at the fastest pace since the height of the pandemic. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases pass 34.4 million; deaths exceed 1.02 million
- Trump’s age and weight make Covid particularly dangerous
- Trump’s campaign events will go virtual or will be delayed
- How Russia shortened the Covid vaccine race to declare victory
- Europe’s banks lead the way in global jobs cull this year
Covid-19 Surge That’s Pounding Wisconsin Began at Colleges - The Covid-19 surge sweeping Wisconsin started among people from 18 to 24 just as college opened for the academic year. Now, it’s reaching every corner of the population. The state, where President Donald Trump has been planning campaign rallies Saturday, now finds itself with one of the highest per-capita case rates in the U.S. Experts say the return to college was among a dangerous confluence of factors that contributed. Indeed, the state’s data show that cases spiked first among the college-aged population; other age groups followed days and weeks later. Nationwide, Covid-19 cases have ebbed after the Sun Belt surge of July, and no state has seen the carnage that New York suffered at the start of the pandemic. But previously little-affected parts of the Midwest have become new hot spots, and parts of New York and Massachusetts are watching slight resurgences. Across the country, the return to university campuses has been fiercely debated, and schools have had varying experiences with in-person instruction. But in Wisconsin, students returned to a state that had had low rates of the virus earlier in the pandemic and probably had less built-up immunity. They moved from across the U.S. into dormitories and other group housing, their arrival coinciding with community-wide “pandemic fatigue,” which has hurt mask usage and social distancing, according to Laura Cassidy, an epidemiologist with the Medical College of Wisconsin. “Universities can do everything they can, but students will be students,” Cassidy said. University of Wisconsin System President Tommy Thompson said in a Thursday interview that the campuses were among the safest places in the state, with extensive testing, tracking and quarantine programs. But he acknowledged there was “some connection” between returning students and the viral wave. “We have been a part of the problem at the beginning, not the total problem,” he said.The Madison campus paused in-person classes shortly after the school year started, and is now undertaking a gradual restart after cases and positivity rates dropped dramatically. But Thompson, a former Republican governor, said the campuses chose the best path for their more than 170,000 students. He said he was unaware of any student cases directly tied through contact tracing to outbreaks in the broader community. “If we don’t educate them, they’re going to stay and party,” said Thompson, who served as secretary of Health and Human Services under President George W. Bush. “And what would you rather have?”
SD reaches record high coronavirus death toll - South Dakota recorded a record high COVID-19 death toll Thursday with 13 fatalities and 747 new positive virus cases.According to state epidemiologist Josh Clayton, cities and rural zones are reporting significant clusters of the virus in recent days, the Associated Press reported.He noted that 245 of the infections reported were backlogged from previous days after a reporting error.One large outbreak stemmed from a women's prison in Pierre, with testing showing positive results for 29 women in one housing unit.The prison recorded a total of 197 prisoners and staff have tested positive while 110 have recovered. According to Johns Hopkins University, as of Tuesday, the state's seven-day average testing positivity rate was 26 percent — the highest in the country.The record numbers of new cases come as Gov. Kristi Noem (R) tweetedlate last month, "South Dakota's #COVID19 spread peaked the latest of just about any state."Other states in the Midwest are also reporting record COVID-19 numbers, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Kansas.
The US Excess Mortality Rate from COVID-19 Is Substantially Worse than Europe’s - The US has 4% of the world’s population but 21% of the global COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths. This column shows that when comparing excess mortality rates, a more robust way of reporting on pandemic deaths, Europe’s cumulative excess mortality rate from March to July is 28% lower than the US rate, contradicting the Trump administration’s claim that Europe’s rate is 33% higher. The US Northeast – the region most comparable with individual European countries – has experienced substantially worse excess mortality than Europe’s worst-affected countries. Had the US kept its excess mortality rate down to the level in Europe, around 57,800 American lives would have been saved.The US has the highest COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths, accounting for 21% of global deaths. Defenders of the US’s pandemic policy record assert that such figures are misleading since reported COVID-19 cases depend on the testing regime and many countries under-count COVID-19-related deaths. Using excess mortality data is a more rigorous way to compare the pandemic’s death toll. Excess mortality counts deaths from all causes relative to what would normally have been expected. This avoids miscounting deaths due to the under-reporting of COVID-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated, or potentially misattributing deaths to COVID-19 that had other causes. Measures taken by governments and individuals may influence death rates – for example, deaths from traffic accidents may decline but suicide rates may rise. Excess mortality captures the net outcome of all these factors. We show that the P-score – a measure of the rate of excess deaths (actual deaths minus ‘normal’ deaths) relative to normal deaths – is preferable to measuring excess deaths relative to population.
Outside the US, complacency leads to the virus roaring back - The United States is not the only place where human behavior, alternating between panic and complacency, traces out the path of the pandemic. Below are the per capita 7 day averages over the past 3 months for new infections and deaths for the EU, with France, Spain, and Italy highlighted, plus the UK and Canada, in addition to the US. First, here are deaths: To see where deaths will be in several weeks, here are new infections: Three months ago, the EU had the coronavirus beat, to the utter shame of the US. Then they let down their guard, and the virus has come roaring back. Spain’s death rate has already exceeded that of the US. But as the rate of new infections shows, France is likely to join that sorry club in a couple of weeks, with the UK close behind if behavior doesn’t change immediately. Even Canada is showing is significant if much less concerning increase. Only Germany (not highlighted) down near the bottom has retained its vigilant policies and behavior. Given human behavior, it is simply extremely unlikely that society can really get back to normal until there is an effective vaccine.
Global COVID-19 Deaths On Track To Top 1 Million, UK Prepares New 'Localized Lockdown' Measures: Live Updates - Once again, a handful of western European countries saw the biggest weekly acceleration in new caes (on a percentage basis) while India's outbreak slowed from its peak. Spain, France and Belgium led the pack with the biggest weekly increase (per 10k residents). With COVID-19-linked deaths in the US accelerating to roughly 1,000 per day for the first time since before the Sun Belt outbreaks peaked over the summer, the US surpassed 200,000 deaths last week, and now the world is on track to surpass 1 million deaths within the next 24 hours, according to the Associated Press.Globally, the number of deaths reported on Sunday fell by roughly 50% from the more than 5,000 reported on Saturday. Just 2,552 deaths were reported on Sunday, bringing the global total to 998,145 as of Monday morning, within 2,000 deaths of 1 million. Unless the pace of fatalities slows remarkably on Monday, we will top 1 million before midnight - and possibly before the close of the US market day. Some experts, however, believe the true death tally might actually be twice the official number, as underreporting has largely gone unchallenged in China and elsewhere. On the vaccine front, Inovio, a US biotech company, said its Phase 2/3 trials for a COVID-19 vaccine candidate had been put on hold as the company answers more questions from the FDA. Its shares slid 35% on the news, but news of the delay didn't have any broader impact on markets.The pace of new COVID-19 cases slowed again on Sunday to 155,542 new cases, but the 7-day average remained firmly in expansionary territory as outbreaks in the US and Europe, along with a handful of other regions, intensify. Many experts fear a quickening in the pace of deaths weeks after cases rise, though others argue that advances in the treatment procedures have helped to lower the mortality rate significantly. Sunday's numbers pushed the global total past 33 million, to 33,130,914.As Russia strikes deals around the world to hold Phase 3 trials for "Sputnik 5", the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the Gameleya Institute and funded by a Russian sovereign wealth fund, an outbreak in Moscow has continued to drive the largest surge in infections since June. New cases in Russia have risen to the highest level since June 16, as authorities confirmed 8,135 new infections in the past 24 hours, pushing the total to 1,159,573. Another 61 people have died, taking the official death toll to 20,385. But aside from the global figures, the biggest story overnight is India's total coronavirus infections, which exceeded 6 million as the country reported 82,170 new cases in the last 24 hours, while its death toll jumped by 1,039 to 95,542. The new cases pushed India's total to north of 6 million cases, leaving it within striking distance of the US total. Though the pace of new infections has slowed since India's peak a couple of weeks ago, many still expect India to become the world's biggest outbreak - surpassing the US - within the next 2-3 weeks. India is currently reporting new cases faster than any other country. Of the total 6.07 million cases, 15.85% of patients are currently active while 82.58% have recovered, according to official data. The coronavirus mortality rate in the country stands at 1.57%, according to the latest update from the health ministry.
World Coronavirus Deaths Pass One Million, U.S. Accounts for 20 Percent - The Johns Hopkins University tracker for worldwide coronavirus cases showed that the world passed a grim milestone early Tuesday morning, as more than 1 million have died from the virus and the infection it causes, COVID-19. That's equivalent to almost the entire population of San Jose, California. It's a larger number than the population of Boston, Seattle, Portland and nearly twice the population of Atlanta. In comparison to diseases, COVID-19 in just nine months has killed more people than HIV and dysentery, as The New York Timesreported. It has also killed more than cholera, flu, measles and malaria combined. It's reached every corner of the globe, affecting every country in the world."This is a very serious global event, and a lot of people were going to get sick and many of them were going to die, but it did not need to be nearly this bad," said Tom Inglesby, the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, as The New York Times reported.In addition to the 1 million global deaths, the virus has infected nearly 33.5 million people. Many of the survivors never fully recover and end up with lingering effects that affect their lungs, joints, muscles and mental acuity. Those continued symptoms hamper their ability to return to normal life, according to another report in The New York Times.The U.S. accounts for 20 percent of the global deaths, by far the largest number of deaths, with more than 205,000 COVID-19 fatalities. The Johns Hopkins data shows that just four countries — the U.S., Brazil, India and Mexico — make up more than half the total of worldwide deaths, according to CNN. India is quickly catching up to the U.S. as the virus's transmission is accelerating there. As for the U.S., the numbers are continuing to climb as only 19 states are holding steady. CNN reported that 21 states recorded a higher number of cases in the past week compared to the previous week. "It's not only that the number of infections keeps on going up. It's also that the test positivity rates are trending in the wrong direction," said emergency medicine physician Dr. Leana Wen to CNN."We're seeing more than a dozen states with a test positivity ... over 10%. And there are two states — Idaho and South Dakota — where the test positivity is over 20 percent," she added. "That means that not only do we have increasing infections in these states, we also don't have nearly enough testing." For context, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that an area that wants to reopen businesses should have the number of positive cases at 5 percent or lower for 14 consecutive days, according to Johns Hopkins.
The world has reached the grim milestone of one million COVID-19 deaths According to the Worldometer coronavirus dashboard, the number of COVID-19 deaths globally surpassed 1 million on Sunday morning, US Eastern Time. The Johns Hopkins dashboard, more commonly cited in the American media, puts the figure over 995,000, and by all accounts, will register one million deaths today. This massive tragedy is an indictment of the ruling classes which have allowed such misery to rain on the working class populations who have suffered the brunt of this pandemic. The United States, with 209,361 deaths, leads every other nation in this horrific category. Brazil takes second place with 141,503 deaths, followed by India, with 95,162 deaths, and Mexico, with 76,243 deaths. Right-wing authoritarian rulers in the first three countries, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Narendra Modi, and the “left” populist demagogue Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in the fourth, have embraced identical policies of letting the infection rip through the population without serious resistance. These four horsemen of death account for half the world’s total. Mexico has consistently averaged close to 500 deaths daily, and by all experts, the official reports have been gross underestimates. Earlier this month, the government shamefully announced they had run out of death certificates. By Aug. 1, the official death count was 69,095 though the government had announced excess deaths at 122,765. As Figure 1 demonstrates, daily global deaths have remained nearly stable since peaking in April. The column for September marked in yellow is a projection that the last four days will see, on average, about 5,300 deaths per day using the latest seven-day average estimate. By all accounts, the limited response and measures that have been employed throughout the pandemic have only stabilized the impact of the virus around the world. However, as winter approaches for the far more populous northern hemisphere, case numbers and deaths are expected to begin climbing again. To the figure of one million officially killed by COVID-19 must be added hundreds of thousands who have perished with the cause of death signed off by the medical examiners or health authorities as unknown, or cardiopulmonary or organ failure, concealing the true impact of the pandemic from family members and the public at large.
Coronavirus Super-Spreaders Drove Explosive Outbreak in India - Coronavirus super-spreaders were behind the explosion of Covid-19 in India, the country with the most cases after the U.S., researchers said. A group of patients that included about 8% of India’s confirmed cases later led to almost two-thirds of its total infections, scientists said Wednesday in a study published in the journal Science. The research, based on tracing more than 3 million contacts in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu through Aug. 1, is the first major study of transmission in a developing country. While most research on the pandemic has come from China, Europe and North America, cases are now burgeoning in India and other developing countries, according to researchers led by Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy who wrote the study. Barriers to health care are greater in these nations, and the risk of getting severely ill and dying from Covid is higher, they said. “We’ve never had this degree of information to say, hey, some people are really transmitting the virus in a massive way,” Laxminarayan said in an interview. In contrast with the super-spreader minority, 71% of confirmed cases whose contacts were traced weren’t found to have spread the virus to anyone. A nationwide serological survey showed that one in 15 Indians have been exposed to the coronavirus. Hospitals in several states are now struggling to secure medical oxygen, needed to assist patients with trouble breathing on their own. Data for the Science study were gathered by thousands of contact-tracers during India’s lockdown, when mass gatherings were banned, schools were closed and people were ordered to wear face masks in public. Almost 130 million people live in the two Indian states, accounting for about 10% of the country’s population. India has recorded more than 6.2 million Covid-19 cases. Both states reported their first SARS-CoV-2 infections on March 5. Health workers traced as many as 80 contacts per confirmed case, using skills and resources honed from routinely tracking potential transmitters of HIV and tuberculosis, Laxminarayan said. Prolific SARS-CoV-2 transmitters tended to spread the virus during prolonged close contact on buses and other forms of transportation, according to the researchers, who were also from Princeton University, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and Indian state governments. In such settings, there was a 79% chance of an infection occurring. That compares with only a 1 in 40 chance of catching the virus from someone in the community who wasn’t a household member, Laxminarayan said. Children under 14, though, were found to be frequent “silent” spreaders of the virus, especially to their parents and peers.
What's driving India's 100,000 Covid-19 deaths? - India has confirmed more than 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus - a grim toll that ranks it third in the world behind only the US and Brazil. September was the nation's worst month on record: on average 1,100 Indians died every day from the virus. Regional anomalies continue as some states report far higher deaths than others - a sign, experts say, that the pandemic is still working its way through the country. Here's some of what we know about where India is worst affected by Covid-19 and why. Maharashtra, one of India's largest and richest states, has both the highest caseload - 1.3 million and counting - and death toll - more than 36,000. The pandemic struck early in Maharashtra, spread quickly and barely let up. The number of daily reported deaths in September ranged between 300 and 500 - significantly higher than other badly-hit states which reported fewer than 100 deaths a day through the month. And it is no longer Mumbai, the crowded financial hub, that is worrying pandemic watchers. Mumbai is still the district with the highest fatalities, but quiet, suburban Pune district has raced to second place with more than 5,800 deaths. Five of the 10 districts with the highest Covid-19 fatalities - Mumbai and Pune included - are now in Maharashtra. Mumbai was the virus' gateway to Maharashtra, said Dr Aurnab Ghose, who was part of a team which carried out a random antibody sampling of Pune residents. The government survey found that, in some parts of the city, half the people had developed Covid-19 antibodies. Dr Ghose said that while Mumbai was more self-contained, the greater movement between urban and rural parts of Pune district, as well between Pune and surrounding districts, had spread the virus further in these parts. And given the high prevalence, health systems too have been overwhelmed, driving up deaths in some instances. Pune's 'jumbo' Covid centre made headlines recently over allegations of a negligent death. The northern state has been reporting a case fatality ratio of 3%. That's a measure of how many Covid positive patients die from the virus and Punjab's figure is double that of India's national average. In absolute numbers, the state ranks ninth for deaths. But many of its districts are also reporting high case fatality rates - 4% and above. "Punjab is a cause for concern," said Dr Shamika Ravi, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who is tracking the pandemic. "Its case fatality rate is not only the highest in the country but it's also rising," she said. That is alarming, Dr Ravi said, because it is contrary to what's happening all over the world and in India as a whole - widespread testing and improved knowledge of treatment options is bringing down case fatality rates. Dr Ravi said she believed Maharashtra and Punjab were both showing symptoms of a bigger malaise - limited testing, leading to higher positive rates. Lower testing could leader to a rise in death rates, she said, because authorities catch the infection only when it's too late.
Putin To Be Among First To Receive 'Controversial' Sputnik Vaccine Ahead Of S.Korea Visit - After previously touting that his own daughter was among the first to take the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, standing in as a prominent early 'guinea pig' of sorts vouching for its safety, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he plans to receive it soon, according to a story in Newsweek on Monday.Without specifying precisely when he would receive the vaccine, which was met with approval by government regulators in August, Putin reportedly indicated it would come before his next trip to South Korea. "Putin has not yet committed publicly to receiving the vaccine—the development of which has been financed by the state Russian Direct Investment Fund—but told South Korean President Moon Jae-in by phone Monday that he would have the shot before a planned visit to Seoul, Newsweek reports.Moon personally invited Putin to come to South Korea during a call upon the occasion of the 30th anniversary of establishment of the Russian-South Korean diplomatic relations.According to a summary of the call, Russian media sources indicate that Putin told Moon:"I will come to South Korea... I will personally take the Russian vaccine and go."Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine was developed by Moscow's Gamaleya research institute with help from the Russian defense ministry. It was tested at Moscow's state medical university.Initially met with broad global skepticism, Russia's health ministry last month announced it expects to begin mass anti-coronavirus vaccinations by October, with the first rounds to be administered to front line medical workers as well as teachers.Global critics have charged Russia appears to be 'rushing' out a vaccine amid the international race to come up with a preventative 'cure' for countries' populations. And apparently Putin plans to be among these front line early recipients of the Russian vaccine as well, given his international travel schedule.
Explosive outbreak of COVID-19 at British universities - The return of two million students to Britain’s universities has produced a massive rise in Covid-19 cases. As of Tuesday outbreaks had taken place in at least 45 universities around the UK from a total of approximately 130, according to research by Sky News. This represents a more than doubling of the 20 universities reporting outbreaks at the weekend. With around 2 million students in higher education (HE), cases will only grow. Almost a third of universities have had Covid cases already with the new term just getting underway, and with more students still returning. By September 29, at least 865 Covid-19 cases have been identified among students and staff since HE reopened, according to Sky News. Thousands of students are self-isolating as the new term begins. At Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU) approximately 1,700 students were told to isolate for 14 days after 127 tested positive for the virus; at Glasgow University 600 are students isolating after 172 tested positive and at Queen's University Belfast another 100 are isolating after 30 tested positive for the virus. A statement from Labour Party-run Manchester City Council last Friday said a decision had been taken with the university and Public Health England to "implement a local lockdown for student accommodation at [MMU’s] Birley campus and Cambridge Halls" to "stop the transmission of the virus among students and prevent it getting into the wider community." Students living in two main dorms were told via email to self-isolate in their residences for 14 days, regardless of whether they have symptoms. Further testing revealed that 140 students have tested positive for the virus. Students are being kept under conditions that will facilitate the uncontrolled spread of the virus. They are stuck in a confined space, having to share communal areas including kitchens. Other students now find themselves living under curfews and banned from the local pubs.
Brain-eating amoeba kills a 6-year-old boy in Texas, prompting officials to test the water supply to 8 cities -The death of a 6-year-old boy alerted Texas officials to the presence of a brain-eating amoeba in their water supply. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued a water advisory to residents of eight cities that are served by the Brazosport Water Authority, according to CNN. People were warned not to ingest any water because it contained a deadly microscopic organism called Naegleria fowleri.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says this amoeba can be traced to soil and warm freshwater, which includes rivers, hot springs, and lakes, as well as insufficiently chlorinated swimming pools and heated tap water.Contaminated water typically enters a body via the nose, per the CDC. Naegleria fowleri then travels to the brain, triggering a fatal infection called primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). CNN reported that this incident began on Sept. 8 when authorities in Lake Jackson, Texas, were informed of Josiah McIntyre's hospitalization and death. Tests revealed that the brain-eating amoeba was in a water hose at the boy's house as well as at a splash pad at the civic center in Lake Jackson, which issued a disaster declaration. Local authorities joined the CDC, the Texas Department of State Health Services, and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to test the water supply.Three out of 11 samples tested positive for Naegleria fowleri on Sept. 25, per CNN. The "Do Not Use Water" Advisory has been lifted for all Brazosport Water Authority users, but Lake Jackson residents are asked to boil water before consuming it, TCEQ announced on Twitter alongside other precautionary measures. Naegleria fowleri infections are infrequent but mostly fatal, the CDC said. The agency recorded 145 cases between 1962 and 2018, and only four of those people survived. Josiah's mother, Maria Castillo, said she took solace in knowing what led to her child's death, according to KTRK-TV.
Brain-Eating Amoeba Found in Texas City's Water Spurs Disaster Declaration - Environmental officials have warned residents of Lake Jackson, Texas to boil their water before using it f or cooking or drinking after a six-year-old boy died from a brain-eating amoeba in the water. Tests for naegleria fowleri showed its presence in three of 11 samples in the Lake Jackson area, including one from a hose at the boy's home, according to the AP. Lake Jackson is a suburb of Houston, just over 50 miles south of the city. Texas Governor Greg Abbot referred to the water sample tests when he issued a disaster declaration Sunday. He said, "the presence of naegleria fowleri, which can cause a rare and devastating infection of the brain called primary amebic meningoencephalitis, was identified in three of 11 tests of the water supply, posing an imminent threat to public health and safety, including loss of life," as CBS News reported. Health officials let Lake Jackson know that a boy had become infected with the brain-eating amoeba in early September. Exposure to the microbe usually happens through the nose and the boy's family believes he was exposed through the family's hose or from the nearby Lake Jackson Civic Center Splash Pad where water sprays up from the ground, according to The New York Times.The splash pad was tested and the brain-eating amoeba was detected in both the splash pad's storage tank and a nearby fire hydrant, said Lake Jackson city officials, as NBC News reported.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the dangerous species is found in freshwater lakes, warm rivers, hot springs and soil. It can also thrive in poorly maintained pools or unchlorinated ones, as well as warm water waste from factories, as CNN reported. "You cannot get infected from swallowing water contaminated with Naegleria," said the CDC in guidance on parasites posted on its website, as NBC News reported.Initially, eight communities were warned not to use tap water for anything except flushing the toilet. However, further testing localized the problem and the warning was lifted on Saturday for all cities in Brazoria County except for Lake Jackson, according to CBS News.
Wall Street is set to start trading in a new commodity: Water - Almost two-thirds of the world’s population is expected to face water shortages by 2025, according to the CME. If the record heat and wildfires ravaging California weren’t a clear enough sign that the climate is changing, then consider this: Wall Street is about to start trading futures contracts on the state’s water supply.The contracts are the first of their kind in the U.S. and are being created by CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures exchange. They are intended, CME says, to both allow California’s big water consumers -- like almond farms and municipalities -- to hedge against surging prices and can act as a benchmark that signals how acute water scarcity is becoming in the state and, more broadly, across the globe.Water supplies have been tight for years in California, and large parts of Asia and Africa also face the potential of scarcity as temperatures rise. Almost two-thirds of the world’s population is expected to face water shortages by 2025, according to the CME.“Water scarcity is certainly one of the biggest challenges facing communities and individuals today across the globe, where currently about 2 billion people are already living in countries experiencing high water stress," Tim McCourt, the global head of equity index and alternative investment products at CME, said in an interview. Wall Street first took significant note of the potential for water after investor Michael Burry drew attention to the commodity 10 years ago when he spoke about investing in farmland with “water on site." Burry, whose bet against the subprime bubble was spotlighted in “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine" by Michael Lewis and the 2015 movie, has since exited his water and farm holdings, though he noted last year that there’s “a lot of demand for those assets these days."The futures could be useful as a hedge instrument for firms including food or agricultural producers, land lease owners, municipalities and public water agencies.
Why we need water futures -Investors will be able to make wagers on the price of water later this year with the launch of futures contracts, which are expected to better balance supply and demand for the commodity and hedge price risks. “The water sector had long wished for some market structure for price discovery and the ability to hedge risk,” says Deane Dray , a managing director and multi-industry analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “If this new futures contract shows promise, it could spawn more innovation in the futures market related to water.”CME Group and Nasdaq announced a plan on Sept. 17 to launch the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index futures contract, which will have a settlement price based on its namesake index, late in the fourth quarter of this year, pending a regulatory review. The contract will allow investors to hedge price risks in the spot water market and better manage price swings, says Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity products and alternative investments.The index, itself, sets a weekly spot rate price of water rights in California, the majority of which are owned and managed by water districts that deliver water to individual farms, says Clay Landry , managing director at consulting firm WestWater Research, which provides the data used to calculate the index. Some farms own water rights directly, he says; other water-rights owners include municipalities, industrial companies, water utilities, and tribes. On Sept. 23, the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index set the weekly spot price of water rights at $510.99 per one acre-foot. The unit of measure represents the amount of water required to submerge one acre of land in one foot of water—equivalent to about 325,851 gallons of water. Each futures contract based on the index will represent 10 acre-feet of water. The index is “reflective of arm’s-length economic efforts to determine fair value” for water, says Patrick Wolf, lead product developer with Nasdaq Global Information Services. The focus on the California market offers both relevance and robustness in the depth and breadth of participants and the value of transactions, he says.
California Becomes First State to Ban 24 Toxic Chemicals From Cosmetics - California became the first state in the nation to ban two dozen toxic chemicalsfrom cosmetics Wednesday when Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill to that effect into law.The Toxic-Free Cosmetics Act, or Assembly Bill 2762, targets 24 toxic chemicals including mercury and formaldehyde that have been linked to cancer, birth defects, hormone disruption and other negative health impacts, Environmental Working Group (EWG) reported. While these ingredients have been barred from cosmetics and personal care products in the EU, they are not regulated in the U.S. on the national level."Every day, Californians are exposed to hazardous chemicals hiding in their cosmetics and personal care products. Children, communities of color and pregnant women are especially vulnerable to these ingredients, which are not actively regulated by the federal government," Newsom said in a press release. "California is leading the nation by banning toxic ingredients from our cosmetics. This legislation will save lives and keep Californians and our environment safe." The bill was introduced by Democratic Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi and will go into effect in 2025, The Associated Press reported. Cosmetics regulations have not been significantly updated in the U.S. since 1938. Currently, the makers of beauty products do not have to register their products with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), supply the government with an ingredients list, follow safe manufacturing standards or report safety records and any adverse health impacts.This lack of regulation is an issue of health and environmental justice, supporters of the California bill pointed out."Some of the most toxic ingredients are being aggressively marketed to Black women," Black Women for Wellness policy director Nourbese Flint told EWG. "Levels of formaldehyde that could be used to embalm a body are being used in hair straighteners, and Black women who dye their hair are 60 percent more likely to develop breast cancer. That's why we demand safe cosmetics now. This law means we can finally protect women from the toxic exposures they currently face on every trip to the salon." The law will also protect salon workers, who are 47 times more likely to develop fragrance skin allergies than people in other professions, the California government pointed out.
In bid to tackle pollution, England bans plastic straws, stirrers and cotton buds -- A ban on plastic straws, cotton buds and stirrers in England came into force on Thursday, in the latest attempt to mitigate the effect of plastic pollution on the environment. There are some exemptions to the newly-introduced measures: people with certain medical conditions and disabilities will be able to ask for plastic straws at restaurants or pubs, and can buy them from pharmacies. According to the government, an estimated 4.7 billion plastic straws, 1.8 billion plastic-stemmed cotton buds and 316 million plastic stirrers are used in England each year. A large number of these end up in the ocean, it said, harming wildlife and the environment. A number of outlets had already started to move away from these types of products before England's ban came into force. Many restaurants and bars, for instance, have replaced plastic straws with paper ones, and switched plastic cutlery and stirrers with biodegradable versions. In a statement issued alongside the government's announcement, Laura Foster, head of clean seas at the Marine Conservation Society, welcomed the ban. She said the society's annual "Great British Beach Clean" indicated that the number of cotton bud sticks littering British beaches was falling. On average, 31 cotton bud sticks per 100 meters of beach were found in 2017, she explained, compared with just eight per 100 meters on English beaches in 2019. "This reflects that many companies have already made the switch away from plastic, in cotton buds and other items, something we need to see more companies doing," she said. Increased awareness In recent years, TV shows such as "Blue Planet II" have raised awareness of the issue in the U.K. Presented by David Attenborough, the show highlighted the shocking impact plastic has on wildlife and the natural world. Siôn Elis Williams, a plastic campaigner at Friends of the Earth, described the ban on plastic straws, stirrers and cotton buds as "welcome news," but added that these items were "just a fraction of the plastic rubbish that pours into environment and threatens our wildlife."
U.S. EPA removes requirement for curbing toxic air pollutants (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday reversed a Clinton administration-era policy that required major U.S. sources of hazardous air pollution like arsenic and lead to maintain pollution control technology throughout the lifetime of their operation, enabling them to meet less stringent standards. The agency finalized its 2018 proposal to reverse the 1995 “once in, always in” policy, which locked in so-called maximum achievable control technology standards (MACT) for major pollution sources like industrial plants and refineries for the lifetime of those facilities, even after they reduced emissions. The EPA said the change will ease costs for companies without undermining air quality by holding their facilities to less stringent regulatory standards as soon as they have reduced pollution back below a certain limit. “This action reduces regulatory burden and provides a level of fairness and flexibility for sources that reduce HAP emissions below major source thresholds,” according to the final rule issued by the EPA. Environmental groups said the change creates a “loophole” for big industrial plants to pollute more, threatening low income communities that are often near such plants. “The guidance was specifically designed to secure public protection from especially hazardous air pollutants - which in many cases are carcinogenic, or neurotoxic even in very small quantities - in keeping with the requirements of the Clean Air Act,” the Sierra Club said in a statement.The Environmental Defense Fund indicated it would sue the EPA after the new rule is signed. The 1995 rule had resulted in the elimination of 1.7 million tons of hazardous air pollution over two decades, according to a 2017 EPA fact sheet.
EPA finalizes rule allowing some major polluters to follow weaker emissions standards -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday finalized a rule that could reclassify many “major” sources of pollution as minor ones, allowing facilities to abide by less-stringent emissions standards for dangerous substances such as mercury, lead and arsenic. The reclassification changes a 1995 rule that for decades has held major emitters to tighter standards even if their operators have taken actions to reduce their pollution — a policy known as “once in, always in.” The agency estimated that the changes will result in up to 1,258 tons per year of additional emissions of hazardous air pollutants. John Walke, a senior attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the rule would allow corporations to emit more of “some of the most potent carcinogens and neurotoxins” they’ve successfully reduced. “It’s especially outrageous because it’s 100 percent gratuitous: these are plants that have been complying with 95 to 98 percent reduction obligations, with already-installed [pollution] controls, for decades. It's the triumph of extreme ideology over public health, common sense and the law,” he said. The rule allows major sources to become reclassified if they now meet the hazardous air pollutants guidelines in place for the smaller “area” polluters — producing 10 tons per year or less of a single toxin, or 25 tons a year for facilities that emit multiple toxins. The EPA argues that the current policy reduces incentives for facilities to limit their air pollution while rescinding it encourages them to do so. “Today’s action is an important step to further President Trump’s regulatory reform agenda by providing meaningful incentives for investment that prevents hazardous air pollution,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement, adding that the rule “will end regulatory interpretations that discourage facilities from investing in better emissions technology." But critics say facilities that have been ordered to reduce pollution anywhere from 90 to 99 percent may now emit well below the 10 ton and 25 ton threshold, so cutting back on the use of expensive controls could lead their emissions to skyrocket. “Is industry going to try and save money and pollute more or spend more money and pollute less? I think that question answers itself,” Walke said, accusing Wheeler of “magical thinking.” When it first proposed the rule, the EPA estimated that about 3,900 emitters could be reclassified and subjected to weaker standards than before. The finalized version doesn't provide an explicit estimate of how many facilities may reclassify, saying "the unique nature of each source’s decision process makes it difficult for the EPA to determine the number and type of sources that may choose to reclassify under this rule." It added that there are a total of 7,183 facilities currently subject to the major source standards. Clinton administration EPA head Carol Browner called the rule “another blow to our health and environment from an EPA administration that relentlessly attacks bedrock environmental protections.” “This is a lawless action that will undoubtedly increase carcinogens and other deadly pollution in our air,” Browner said in a statement. “Taking this action during a global pandemic that preys upon people with existing respiratory ailments further confirms that for Andrew Wheeler and the political leadership of the EPA the cruelty is the point.”
INTERIOR: Department slams brakes on diversity classes --The Interior Department, one of the government's whitest agencies, is postponing a series of training events on race and diversity in light of recent directives from the White House. In an email to agency leaders obtained by E&E News, Interior's chief diversity officer said the "Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI) Conversations" will be put on hold until further guidance from the White House. The email is in response to a Sept. 4 memo from the Office of Management and Budget that banned agency spending on any training event that discusses "white privilege," characterizing it as "divisive, anti-American propaganda."Erica White-Dunston, director and chief diversity officer in Interior's Office of Civil Rights, said in the email to staff that the office's "primary assessment suggests" this diversity training series is not the subject of the OMB memo. "However," she wrote, "out of an abundance of caution, the EDI Conversations training is being postponed pending receipt of promised further and more extensive guidance from OMB to ensure our full compliance with their training directives." Interior spokesman Conner Swanson confirmed the email. "At this time, we are in the process of assessing all of our relevant training programs at the Department for compliance with the OMB Director's memorandum and the president's recent executive order," he said in an email. The announcement makes Interior the latest agency to pull back on race training after the OMB memo, even as the country faces unprecedented protests for social justice following the killing of George Floyd and other Black Americans.
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE: Wheeler backs Trump's hold on diversity training -- Wednesday, September 30, 2020 --EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler today defended postponing the agency's upcoming race-related training sessions and touted the Trump administration's work on "elevating" environmental justice.EPA last week halted a class on diversity after the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a memo on Sept. 4 directing all agencies to root out education on the structural and systematic qualities of racism in the United States (Greenwire, Sept. 16)."I think that's very appropriate, I think that's a misuse of America's taxpayer dollars to promote training that marginalizes groups of people and is very controversial," Wheeler said on a call with reporters today. "I don't think we should be using taxpayer dollars for that."Wheeler said the training was suspended so EPA could ensure the materials are appropriate and such reviews will continue on an ongoing basis.The administration's move has drawn criticism as the nation faces widespread social justice protests following the killings of Black Americans. Among the critics, some have said that quashing sensitivity training could deter business with the federal government and retention of people of color in the nation's agencies and laboratories (Greenwire, Sept. 23).President Trump at last night's first presidential debate said he moved to end racial sensitivity training that addresses white privilege and critical race theory at federal agencies, calling the classes "racist.""I ended it because a lot of people were complaining that they were asked to do things that were absolutely insane, that it was a radical revolution that was taking place in our military, in our schools all over the place," Trump said, claiming that the training taught people to "hate our country."
For The Bronx, COVID-19 is an Environmental Justice Issue, Too - Elisha Bouret’s 3-year-old son Miguel asks for his asthma inhaler more often these days. And while Bouret cannot prove it, she suspects the return of constant motor vehicle emissions from local thoroughfares — including the Cross Bronx and Major Deegan Expressways — may be triggering her son’s symptoms. “Once the pandemic started and there were less cars in the street, my son had not had an asthma attack,” Bouret, a mother of two, told THE CITY. “Ironically, now that the outside has opened again, my son has had to use his pump a little bit more.” His symptoms have been severe enough to warrant hospitalization four times in his young life, said Bouret — he even spent his second birthday in the hospital. Concern over her son’s health compounds an already taxing time for Bouret and her family. Like many in Morris Heights, where she lived until recently, Bouret tested positive for the virus, as did her two sons, she said. Only she and her older son, Jonathan, who is 7, showed symptoms. Her grandmother-in-law, Joan Terrero, a mother of 10, died from the virus in early May on her 86th birthday. Mounting preliminary research, including from a team at Harvard, suggests exposure to air pollution is associated with higher COVID-19 death rates.Nationally, this link is most apparent in The Bronx, according to a new peer-reviewed study from researchers at SUNY’s College of Environmental Science and Forestry andProPublica, published in the journal “Environmental Research Letters.”Using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data and local mortality figures, scientists found the Bronx ranked the worst for COVID-19 death rates and respiratory hazards of the more than 3,100 other counties in the country. Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens placed second, third and sixth, respectively. Like Terrero, many Bronx residents included in THE CITY’s MISSING THEM memoriallived in neighborhoods where they were consistently exposed to a major source of air pollution: the busy expressways nearby. Microscopic particles emitted from road traffic can penetrate lung tissue and cause respiratory and cardiovascular problems. The city health department estimates that current levels of PM 2.5, or fine particulate matter, contribute to more than 2,000 deaths and more than 6,000 emergency room visits and hospitalizations each year.
Homes Are Flooding Outside FEMA’s 100-Year Flood Zones, Exposing Racial Inequality - When hurricanes and other extreme storms unleash downpours like Tropical Storm Beta has been doing in the South, the floodwater doesn't always stay within the government's flood risk zones. New research suggests that nearly twice as many properties are at risk from a 100-year flood today than the Federal Emergency Management Agency's flood maps indicate. Unfortunately, many of the people living in those properties have no idea that their homes are at risk until the floodwaters rise. Research in other cities has shown similar flooding problems in predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. Poor stormwater infrastructure, expanding urbanization and limited flood mitigation efforts are a few of the reasons why. About 15 million Americans live in FEMA's current 100-year flood zones. The designation warns them that their properties face a 1% risk of flooding in any given year. They must obtain flood insurance if they want a federally ensured loan – insurance that helps them recover from flooding. In Greater Houston, however, 47% of claims made to FEMA across three decades before Hurricane Harvey were outside of the 100-year flood zones. Harris County, recognizing that FEMA flood maps don't capture the full risk, now recommends that every household in Houston and the rest of the county have flood insurance.New risk models point to a similar conclusion: Flood risk in these areas outstrips expectations in the current FEMA flood maps. One of those models, from the First Street Foundation, estimates that the number of properties at risk in a 100-year storm is 1.7 times higher than the FEMA maps suggest. Other researchers find an even higher margin, with 2.6 to 3.1 times more people exposed to serious flooding in a 100-year storm than FEMA estimates. What FEMA’s Flood Maps Miss Understanding why areas outside the 100-year flood zones are flooding more often than the FEMA maps suggest involves larger social and environmental issues. Three reasons stand out. First, some places rely on relatively old FEMA maps that don't account for recent urbanization; pavement and buildings – are not effective sponges like natural landscapes can be. Second, binary thinking can lead people to an underaccounting of risk, and that can mean communities fail to take steps that could protect a neighborhood from flooding. Third, the era of climate change scuttles conventional assumptions.
Researchers Say 'The Blob' On Cape Cod Could Cause Major Environmental Problems - podcast - “The Blob." In science fiction, it's a classic cult movie monster.But in real life, it’s the name researchers have given to an alarming patch of water at the bottom of Cape Cod Bay.This little “blob” of low-oxygen water is causing big problems for marine life off the coast of Cape Cod — and may be part of a much bigger problem for the environment.Tracy Pugh, a biologist with the state’s Division of Marine Fisheries, joined WBUR's Morning Edition to talk about it.
Keeping Large Mammals Captive Damages Their Brains --Hanako, a female Asian elephant, lived in a tiny concrete enclosure at Japan's Inokashira Park Zoo for more than 60 years, often in chains, with no stimulation. In the wild, elephants live in herds, with close family ties. Hanako was solitary for the last decade of her life.Kiska, a young female orca, was captured in 1978 off the Iceland coast and taken to Marineland Canada, an aquarium and amusement park. Orcas are social animals that live in family pods with up to 40 members, but Kiska has lived alone in a small tank since 2011. Each of her five calves died. To combat stress and boredom, she swims in slow, endless circles and has gnawed her teeth to the pulp on her concrete pool.Unfortunately, these are common conditions for many large, captive mammals in the "entertainment" industry. In decades of studying the brains of humans, African elephants, humpback whales and other large mammals, I've noted the organ's great sensitivity to the environment, including serious impacts on its structure and function from living in captivity. It is easy to observe the overall health and psychological consequences of life in captivity for these animals. Many captive elephants suffer from arthritis, obesity or skin problems. Both elephants and orcas often have severe dental problems. Captive orcas are plagued by pneumonia, kidney disease, gastrointestinal illnesses and infections.Many animals try to cope with captivity by adopting abnormal behaviors. Some develop "stereotypies," which are repetitive, purposeless habits such as constantly bobbing their heads, swaying incessantly or chewing on the bars of their cages. Others, especially big cats, pace their enclosures. Elephants rub or break their tusks.Neuroscientific research indicates that living in an impoverished, stressful captive environment physically damages the brain. These changes have been documented in many species, including rodents, rabbits, cats and humans. Although researchers have directly studied some animal brains, most of what we know comes from observing animal behavior, analyzing stress hormone levels in the blood and applying knowledge gained from a half-century of neuroscience research. Laboratory research also suggests that mammals in a zoo or aquarium have compromised brain function.
Severe weather hits SE Europe, leaving at least 5 people dead - Severe weather affecting southeastern Europe over the past couple of days resulted in a significant drop in temperatures, strong winds, hail and high elevation snow, very heavy rain, floods, landslides, and dozens of waterspouts, of which some turned into damaging tornadoes. At least 5 people were killed in Italy, the worst affected country. In Italy, where at least 5 people lost their lives, severe storms started on Thursday, September 24. By September 25, 7 regions were on Orange alert -- Lombardy, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Tuscany, Lazio, Campania, Basilicata, and Sardinia. Across the country, at least three landfalling waterspouts were reported on September 26 -- in Genoa, Salerno, and Rosignano. In the city of Salerno, south of Napoli, locals recorded a giant waterspout coming ashore, uprooting trees and causing damage to vehicles and buildings. (videos) At least 8 people were injured after a tornado hit Rosignano, Toskana: Numerous waterspouts were spotted over the northern Adriatic Sea, from northern Italy to Umag, Pula, and Rijeka, Croatia, with some of them truly impressive. "Clear air mass within the much colder air aloft has provided great observing conditions, so waterspouts were nicely visible even at a large distance," Severe Weather Europe meteorologists said. "The ongoing pattern over Europe reveals an impressive upper-level cold-core low, centered over central Europe, the Alps, and the northern Mediterranean. The pattern is resulting in unsettled weather conditions over the region, producing severe storms with flooding and waterspouts over the still very warm seas."
Worst storm of the season hits New Zealand, bringing disruptive snow and strong winds - A rapidly intensifying severe weather system brought thick snow and wind gusts of over 100 km/h (62 mph) to parts of New Zealand on Sunday, September 27, 2020, resulting in closed roads and dozens of flight cancelations. Met Service described the storm as "the worst of the season."In Queenstown, most flights in and out were canceled as heavy snow blanketed roads. Flurries also fell at sea level in several areas, such as Wanaka, Te Anau, and Dunedin. Snow also engulfed Oban beach on Stewart Island.Multiple weather warnings and watches were posted for the bottom half of South Island and the capital city of Wellington. Thick snow in Auckland prompted authorities to close several roads, while wind gusts of over 100 km/h (62 mph) were felt both in the North and South Islands.The storm -- described as "the worst of the season" -- was the result of a low-pressure system moving up New Zealand from Antarctica.Met Service noted that the system was "very unusual in how widespread the severe weather is," and it was a significant weather event, particularly as this season's winter was the warmest on record in New Zealand. According to NIWA, the phrase "weather bomb" is used to describe dramatic weather in New Zealand. Also called a bomb cyclone, it occurs when low pressure intensifies at a pace of at least 24 hPa in 24 hours. Below-freezing cold temperatures are forecast for parts of the South Island on Tuesday, September 29. Snow is expected for beaches in Southland, Otago, and Fiordland, but should clear by Wednesday, September 30.
Nearly 830 000 affected as Sudan faces 'unprecedented challenges' amid worst flood in century - Heavy rains and major floods continue to pose unprecedented challenges in disaster-stricken Sudan where 124 people have died and nearly 830 000 have been affected. Humanitarian workers are struggling as funds are running out, which are necessary to continue operations to assist flood victims.Hundreds of thousands of houses have been damaged or destroyed, while wide swaths of farmland have been affected just before harvest.Nearly 830 000 people have been affected as heavy rains and flooding were continuing to pose unprecedented challenges for the victims, and the funding to respond is extremely low.The country, which is gripped by multiple crises, including the COVID-19 outbreak, polio, and armed conflict, only received 15 percent of the 110 million dollar budget necessary for healthcare needs, and only 22 percent of the requested 71.6 million dollar budget for water and hygiene. "Aid organizations are running out of support and more funding is urgently needed," said UN OCHA.Earlier in September, Sudan has declared a state of emergency for three months due to the catastrophic flooding across 16 states, which has killed 124 people. The Blue Nile River has reached more than 17 m (56 feet), the worst in nearly a century, according to the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation.
225 000 affected as third wave of flooding hits Assam, India - At least 225 000 people have been affected in nine districts of Assam, India, as the ongoing third wave of flooding worsens, officials of Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) reported Sunday, September 27, 2020. Around 10 000 ha (25 000 acres) of cropland in 219 villages have been inundated, hundreds of people have taken shelter in 43 relief camps, and one person drowned in floodwaters. ASDMA officials said in the third wave of floods, 225 000 people in 155 villages have been affected and one person has died in Nagaon District. The victim drowned in the floodwater at Kampur, where the Kopili River was flowing above the danger mark. On Saturday, September 27, the Brahmaputra was flowing above the danger level at Nematighat in Jorhat District, while the Jia Bharali was also above the danger levels in Sonitpur District. As many as 40 000 domesticated animals were also affected in the districts of Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, Morigaon, Nagaon, and West Karbi Anglong-- all of which have become marooned. Also among the worst-affected areas are Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, and Sivasagar. The officials added that around 10 000 ha (25 000 acres) of cropland have been ravaged by floodwaters in 219 villages. Hundreds of people have been taking refuge in 43 relief camps, mostly in Nagaon. Many other assets and infrastructures have been damaged, including roads, bridges, embankments, government buildings, and schools. Moderate to heavy rain and thundershowers are forecast over parts of West Assam on Tuesday, September 29.
At least 40 dead and 2 million tons of rice destroyed as Jigawa sees worst flood in 32 years, Nigeria - At least 40 people have lost their lives and more than 2 million tons of rice crops - a quarter of the country's projected harvest - have been lost as northwestern Nigerian state Jigawa reels from its worst flood in 32 years, according to the Jigawa State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA).
- Officials could not give the exact number of farmlands and houses that were destroyed by the flood but said the damage is unprecedented.
- Due to the massive loss of rice, officials fear that the situation may worsen the country's food insufficiency and lead to a further price hike.
40 people have died in about 19 local government areas since the beginning of the rainy season, with the Hadejia Emirate as the worst affected, SEMA executive secretary Sani Yusuf told Premium Times. The areas badly hit were Buji, Ringim, Taura, Jahun, Miga, Malammadori, Auyo, Kafinhausa, Guri, as well as Gwaram, Kiyawa, Kaugama, Birninkudu, kirikasamma, Garki, and Babura. "These are the number of deaths so far reported to the agency since the beginning of this rainy season." Yusuf added that with federal government support, SEMA is exerting efforts to assist flood victims by providing emergency needs. So far, the agency has distributed 30 canoes to inundated communities, as well as materials to build embankments to control the floods.
Ashfall produced by Sangay destroys 11 200 ha of crops, affecting at least 24 500 farmers, Ecuador –(satellite video) Ashfall produced by the eruption Ecuador's Sangay volcano continues to be registered in several areas of the country, with most affected the Andean province of Chimborazo.A total of 11 198 ha (27 670 acres) of crops have been destroyed in the provinces of Bolivar, Chimborazo, Guayas, and Los Ríos, affecting at least 24 557 farmers, after the major eruption on September 20, 2020, when volcanic ash rose to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level.According to DG ECHO, the National Risk Management Service has distributed 26 250 volcano kits to those most affected in the provinces of Bolivar, Chimborazo and Guayas. The Ministry of Agriculture has delivered forage for the cattle.IGEPN volcanologists said that explosions and ash emissions on September 20 were much more energetic than any of those observed in the past couple of months. A large ash cloud was reported at 09:40 UTC, with the highest part of the cloud heading east, while the lower part headed west of the volcano.On September 24, El Comercio reported 55 000 ha (135 900 acres) of banana crops were affected by ashfall, especially in the provinces of Guayas and Los Rios.This area's production accounts for 25 to 30% of the fruit that is exported to the world on a weekly basis, equivalent to 1.5 million boxes. The worst affected areas were Naranjito and El Triunfo in Guayas, and Mata de Cacao in Los Rios.Sangay is located in the Morona Santiago province, 41 km (25 miles) north-west of the city of Macas. The current eruptive period began in May 2019. The activity is characterized by lava flows, pyroclastic density currents (pyroclastic flows), and gas and ash emissions.
Bright fireball lights up the sky over Ohio, U.S. - A brilliant fireball exploded over Ohio, U.S. at around 10:24 UTC (06:24 EDT) on September 30, 2020.The American Meteor Society (AMS) has so far received 701 reports about the meteor, which was observed in more than a dozen states.The event was primarily seen from Ohio, but AMS has also received reports from Washington D.C., Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, the Carolinas, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, the Virginias, Wisconsin, U.S., and Ontario, Canada The meteor traveled in a southeast to the northwest direction and ended its visible light somewhere over North Benton, Ohio, according to the AMS.
Migrating tornadoes found to be more dangerous and deadlier in the Southeast, U.S. -- Migrating tornadoes that are increasingly occurring in the southeastern United States have been found to be more dangerous and twice as deadly as twisters elsewhere in the country, according to an analysis by the Environment & Energy Publishing (E&E News). A shift of tornado activity from the Great Plains to the Southeast exposed heightened danger by concentrating such storms in a far more perilous landscape covered by forest that conceals tornadoes and occupied by mobile homes that are easily destroyed. During the March 2019 Alabama tornado in eastern Alabama, 19 of 23 victims died in mobile homes. A year later, March 2020, a tornado packing 273 km/h (170 mph) ripped through central Tennessee, killing 19. The tornadoes swirled along the ground for only a few minutes, but the two are considered the deadliest natural disasters in the U.S. since 2019. These storms show an alarming trend that is disregarded amid concern about wildfires and floods-- tornadoes are increasingly occurring in the Southeast, where they are twice as fatal as twisters elsewhere in the U.S. According to NOAA records dating back to 1950, tornado activity has increased in the Southeast since the late 1990s, and the trend and death toll has risen in the previous years. "The number of killer tornadoes in the Southeastern U.S. is disproportionately large when compared to the overall number of tornadoes throughout the country," said NOAA. Since January 2019, NOAA records show that 99 of the country's 120 tornado-related fatalities, or 83 percent, occurred in the Southeast. In the 2010s, 54 percent of tornado deaths happened in the Southeast, while 25 percent occurred in the 1980s. The Southeast includes Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee-- an area called "Dixie Alley" by some tornado analysts. Meanwhile, west of the Mississippi River, the Great Plains region called "Tornado Alley" has become safe. Kansas, which was once the epicenter of tornado activity, has not had a tornado-related fatality since February 2012. Nebraska hasn't had a tornado-related death since June 2014, and only recorded five deaths in the last 32 years. Iowa had three tornado casualties since June 2008. Throughout Tornado Alley, there have been 24 tornado fatalities since the beginning of 2016, according to NOAA data. This region includes Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas.
California wildfire's scale revealed as Bobcat Fire scorches Los Angeles County - The scale of one of the largest wildfires on record burning in Los Angeles County has been revealed in new imagery from NASA. The Bobcat Fire has scorched some 114,000 acres since the beginning on Sept. 6 and exploded in size as it burned through the Angeles National Forest. The blaze is now 62% contained, but a red flag warning is in effect for Monday due to critical fire weather conditions with gusty winds and low humidity that could fan the flames. The blaze has generated tremendous amounts of smoke that has choked the greater Los Angeles area with poor air quality. More than two dozen homes were destroyed or damaged as the blaze burned through the Juniper Hills and Littlerock neighborhoods near Palmdale, but the blaze has mostly worked its way through the national forecast. Fire experts at NASA monitored the blaze from satellite sensors including the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on the Landsat 8 satellite, which revealed the burn scar from the blaze. The burn scar can be seen from the Bobcat Fire on Sept. 21, 2020 (NASA) The image released by NASA also shows where the active fires are burning (shown in bright red), scarred land that is burning (seen in darker red), intact vegetation (pictured in green), and where urban development is located. Over 70 large wildfires are currently burning across the West, including a new wildfire that broke out Sunday in Napa County, prompting evacuations of hundreds of homes and a hospital.
Tens of thousands flee rapidly growing wildfires overnight = The arrival of cooler fall temperatures hasn’t relieved Northern California of the devastating wildfires that have plagued the region for months now, with thousands of residents forced to evacuate due to two growing fires in Sonoma and Napa counties. The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Glass Fire has shifted from the St. Helena border and threatened parts of Napa County from Sunday into Monday. The fire has spread to parts of Sonoma County, with communities east of Santa Rosa advised to evacuate. Paradise, a town in neighboring Butte County that was scorched by the massive 2018 Camp Fire, has also been issued an evacuation warning. Evacuations are underway for vulnerable communities, including for 4,500 senior living facility residents. City buses from Santa Rosa arrived at the Oakmont Village at 1 a.m. on Monday. Earlier, 14,000 Santa Rosa PG&E customers reportedly lost power as the fire raged and smoke billowed into the air.Following more widespread evacuation orders, the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office ordered residents along the Sonoma-Napa County line to evacuate as “multiple fires” were recorded nearby. Updates from Cal Fire indicate that the additional fires reported merged with the main Glass Fire. So far, the Glass Fire has consumed 11,000 acres and is 0 percent contained. Weather conditions have only added to the flames, with a red flag warning in place due to “strong and gusty offshore winds, low humidity, and dry fuels.” The Chronicle reports that high temperatures and familiar smoky conditions have returned.
New wildfires cause mass evacuations in California’s Napa Valley - Warmer weather and wind gusts accelerated and sparked new fires across Central and Northern California on Sunday and Monday. Early Monday morning, three fires erupted in Napa and Sonoma Counties, the Shady, Boysen and Glass fires. They quickly merged into one, the Glass Fire, which has burned more than 11,000 acres by Monday morning, including several structures, wineries and an inn. It is burning uncontrolled. Areas east of the city of Santa Rosa (population 177,000), were quickly overtaken by flames. More than 53,000 people were evacuated in the northern counties of Napa, Sonoma, Butte and Shasta—26,000 in Santa Rosa. Many others have been warned to prepare to flee on short notice, as fire fighters confront new blazes. Shortly after 2 a.m. on Monday morning, Santa Rosa city buses were sent to the Oakmont Village retirement community in eastern Santa Rosa, population 4,500, in order to evacuate hundreds of elderly residents as flames from the Sandy and Glass fires moved west from Napa County and consumed homes in the outer neighborhoods of Santa Rosa. CBS news described how residents of the Oakmont Gardens, a senior living center within Oakmont Village, lined up early Monday morning, many of them in wheelchairs and walkers, with the few belongings that they were able to carry, as the advancing flames lit up the sky.“ The buses drove through clouds of embers as they escaped to an evacuation center at the Santa Rosa Veteran Auditorium. But by 3:11 a.m., the elderly residents were on the move again as officials—‘out of an abundance of caution’— the Veterans building and the Santa Rosa Fairgrounds were closing as shelters and evacuees were moved to the safer confines of Petaluma.”In addition to the evacuations in Oakmont Village, residents of other eastern Santa Rosa neighborhoods (Pythian, Calistoga, Melita, Stonebridge and Skyhawk) were ordered to evacuate by the Santa Rosa police. A still undetermined number of homes have burned in Skyhawk and Oakmont. The main road through these neighborhoods was gridlocked, as residents evacuated the area. As the flames spread, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), the electricity monopoly that serves Northern California, announced the cut-off of services for 37,000 households near the Glass Fire. These cut-offs are in addition to the 90,000 households that had already been blacked out by the so-called Public Safety Power Shutoff initiated by PG&E on Sunday evening in response to the wind gusts. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Safety (Cal Fire) confronted high winds in the entire region through Monday night. Over 8,000 structures, mostly homes, were under direct threat. North of Santa Rosa, the gigantic August Fire (45 percent contained) in the Mendocino National Forest has grown to 878,000 acres and continued to expand to the west over the weekend, prompting evacuations in Trinity and Humboldt Counties. The latest fire, which began on August 17, has burned more than 306,000 acres and is 78 percent contained, but northeast winds throughout the weekend helped spark new blazes. In Butte County, northeast of Santa Rosa and north of Sacramento, households in the towns of Paradise and Magalia were asked to voluntarily evacuate. Both of those towns were destroyed by the Camp Fire in 2018, as high winds accelerated the uncontrolled northern edge of the North Complex fire.About 80 miles north of the North Complex Fire, and only a few miles west of Redding California (pop. 92,000) in Shasta County, a new conflagration, the Zogg Fire, began on Sunday afternoon, and is now burning uncontrolled; by Monday morning, it had consumed 15,000 acres.
California Wildfires Burn 10,000 Acres in a Single Day - Just days after a new report detailed the "unequivocal and pervasive role" climate change plays in the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, new fires burned 10,000 acres on Sunday as a "dome" of hot, dry air over Northern California created ideal fire conditions over the weekend. In Napa County, the Glass Fire burned more than 2,500 acres, forcing at least 2,000 residents and a hospital to evacuate and threatening about 2,200 structures. The fire tore through vineyards and jumped two rivers Sunday evening and was zero percent contained as of late Sunday night. "It's a cremation," Craig Battuello, whose family has raised grapes in St. Helena for more than a century, told KPIX.As of Monday morning, the Shady and Boysen Fires, burning near the Sonoma-Napa county line were believed to be spot fires from the Glass Fire. Further north, the Zogg Fire had burned 7,000 acres as of Sunday evening. Electricity will be shut off for 65,000 Northern California customers in 16 counties to prevent the spread of the fires.For a deeper dive: Increased frequency and intensity: BBC, E&E; Weekend conditions: Washington Post, The Guardian, San Francisco Chronicle; Fires: CNN, KPIX, San Francisco Gate, CBS, The Press Democrat, San Francisco Chronicle, ABC-7 KGO News, Mercury News, KRCR, SFist, San Francisco Chronicle, Weather Channel; Climate signals background: Wildfires, 2020 Western wildfire season
PG&E shuts off power to tens of thousands as West Coast wildfires continue to rage - As wildfires continue along the West Coast of the US, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) shut off power to nearly 100,000 customers in the midst of record-breaking heat. The company shut down power on Sunday morning to prevent its equipment from sparking wildfires in California. Across the state, firefighters continue to battle 26 major wildfires, some of which have been going for over a month. More than 3.6 million acres have burned and 26 people have died in California alone and some six counties still face evacuation orders. The power shutoff will affect around 96,976 customers in San Francisco Bay Area counties. Altogether some 300,000 people will be affected by the shutoffs according to Census data. The threat to forestland still continues as at least half of National Forests in the state will remain closed. The Forest Service announced that all 18 of California’s National Forests have stayed closed as of September 9 because of high-risk fire conditions. The National Weather Service warned that high winds could combine with a heat wave and “critically dry conditions” that could lead to rapid fire spread this week. Red flag warnings have been raised from the Bay Area all the way to the Oregon border. Meanwhile, the Glass Fire in Napa County has prompted mandatory evacuations as blazes grew to more than 1,200 acres overnight. Cal Fire issued orders for residents in St. Helena and other parts of the county to leave after the fire began on Sunday, saying it was burning at a “dangerous rate of spread.” An evacuation center was established in Napa and evacuees were asked to bring face masks and practice social distancing to limit the spread of COVID-19. A large animal shelter was also designated at the Napa Valley Horsemen's Association. Firefighting response teams from the surrounding area were sent to help put out the Napa blaze, including elements of the San Francisco Fire Department. The fires grew so severe that the St. Helena hospital, Adventist Health, had to be evacuated and a statement was announced on Sunday morning that it was temporarily suspending emergency and hospital care and transferring all patients. A St. Helena resident, Pat McGivern, told ABC7 News that the fires were just miles from her house and were “frightening.” She was warned by her neighbor and planned to evacuate soon. She told the news channel that she could hear several propane tanks exploding and multiple homes in the area burning.
California Wildfires: Glass Fire forces entire city of Calistoga to evacuate - — A fast-moving wildfire that tore across Napa and Sonoma counties in the early hours of Monday morning destroyed homes on the eastern edge of Santa Rosa and forced at least 70,000 North Bay residents to flee, many in hasty late-night evacuations. But there was better news by Monday evening, when firefighters that had been struggling at the start of the day to defend homes and neighborhoods were cautiously optimistic that weather conditions had turned in their favor, as the ferocious dry winds that drove the fire’s explosive growth appeared to have died down. “We don’t have those critical burning conditions that we were experiencing those last two nights,” Cal Fire Division Chief Ben Nicholls said at a briefing late Monday. Fire crews, he said, “are feeling much more confident tonight when we were last night.” The Glass Fire, the largest in the Bay Area and one of 27 blazes currently burning around California, more than tripled in size Monday to cover 36,236 acres as of around 5 p.m., with zero containment, according to Cal Fire. The entire city of Calistoga was ordered to evacuate Monday evening. The blaze is made up of three fires that merged late Sunday and raced across the landscape. Nicholls said strong winds hurled embers over the Napa River and nearby vineyards, sparking spot fires on both sides of the Napa Valley and fueling a run through the mountains dividing Sonoma and Napa counties that ended in the suburban neighborhoods of eastern Santa Rosa. “Multiple” people were injured in the fire, Nicholls said, though he did not provide further information. Sonoma County authorities said deputies rescued multiple people who defied evacuation orders and may have been injured. Thousands of structures were threatened as the fire grew amid hot and dry conditions Monday, and heavy smoke forced fire crews to pause their aerial attack because of limited visibility. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday afternoon that a “substantial” number of structures had been destroyed in the fire, though authorities have not yet tallied the losses. Later in the day, Newsom declared a state of emergency in Napa, Sonoma and Shasta counties due to the Glass and Zogg fires.Ten destroyed homes could be seen Monday along Mountain Hawk Drive in Santa Rosa’s Skyhawk Community. In Napa County, more than a dozen homes had burned on Crystal Springs Road near St Helena, as had the famed Chateau Boswell Winery on the Silverado Trail. Several more homes and wineries appeared to be damaged elsewhere in both counties. Santa Rosa Fire Chief Tony Gossner said he could not quantify the number of homes destroyed in the Santa Rosa area but that there was “significant loss between Los Alamos and Oakmont on the north side of Highway 12.”
Three people found dead in fast-moving Zogg Fire – At least three people have been killed in the fast-moving Zogg Fire west of Redding, authorities said Monday. Shasta County Sheriff-Coroner Eric Magrini announced the deaths at an afternoon news conference. “It’s with a sad heart that I come before you today to say we’ve had three deaths as a result of this fire thus far,” he said. “Our coroner’s office is working diligently to identify the decedents and notify next of kin.” Magrini did not provide any other information, including where the bodies were found. The fire, which ignited north of Igo just before 3 p.m. Sunday, has burned at least 31,000 acres and, Magrini said, forced 1,250 residents of Igo and Ono to flee their homes. “Those numbers will increase,” said Magrini, who urged residents to heed orders to evacuate. “This is fast moving,” he said. “When you hear that order, evacuate immediately. Do not wait.” The inferno is moving south away from Redding, including through the 2018 Carr Fire burn scar, with winds carrying embers and sparking spot fires as much as a mile away, said Operations Section Chief Chris Waters of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “The wind continues to push the fire across control lines,” he said. “Until this red flag warning and these winds start to dissipate, we are not going to be able to make a lot of headway on suppression efforts.”
3 dead, nearly 100 000 evacuate as two massive wildfires explode in Northern California - At least 3 people lost their lives while almost 100 000 have fled their homes as two out-of-control wildfires continue to rage in Northern California. As of Tuesday, September 29, 2020, the Glass Fire has consumed more than 18 000 ha (45 000 acres) of land and, while the Zogg Fire has burned 16 000 ha (40 000 acres), both are zero percent contained. Some 1 500 firefighters continue to battle the wildfires that have been ravaging Napa's famous wine region. Some notable wineries, such as Chateau Boswell and a portion of 13th-century-style winery Castello di Amorosa have been lost to the blazes, which reached the fringes of Santa Rosa-- the biggest town in the neighboring Sonoma County. "It's a complete, total loss," said Jim Sullivan, Castello di Amorosa's vice president of marketing and PR. Nearly 100 000 residents have been evacuated from towns, including the entirety of Calistoga, a wine tourism destination. 80 houses have been destroyed between the two counties, according to Cal Fire official Jonathan Cox. Santa Rosa fire chief Tony Gossner added that it would take weeks to put the flames under control. "It's going to be kind of long, and it's going to be painful." Residents in the affected region are still reeling from a previous disaster as the area was hit by devastating wildfires in 2017, which killed 44 people and scorched thousands of buildings.
Zogg Fire update: Fourth person dies, Shasta County fire 9% contained - A fourth person has died as a result of burns suffered during the Zogg Fire, Shasta County Sheriff Eric Magrini said Wednesday.The person who died was evacuated from the fire with significant burns, Magrini said.After being taken to a Redding area hospital, the individual died, he said.Magrini did not identify the individual who died and no further information was available. As of Wednesday night, the fire had grown to 55,046 acres — up from 50,102 acres on Tuesday night— and is 9% contained, Cal Fire said. The amount of containment line around the fire is expected to increase over the next few days, officials said. Fire officials were concerned about the possibility of the fire jumping Clear Creek west of Redding, but Chris Waters, a Cal Fire operations chief, said on Wednesday the fire "laid down" in that area overnight and the fire containment line is holding at Clear Creek.However, Magrini said the fire is still dangerous and residents are not allowed back into the area, noting that all evacuation orders remained in place as of Wednesday morning. The number of structures destroyed increased by 1 to 147 as of Wednesday night. Nstructures were damaged. It is not yet known how many of those were homes, businesses, barns and sheds. Two of the buildings that did burn up in the fire were the historic Ono Store & International Café and Ono Grange. The wildfire still threatens 1,538 buildings, according to authorities. Evacuation orders remain in the Platina area, not because of the Zogg Fire, but the August Complex spreading north into the area. The August Complex, the largest fire in state history, has reached nearly 950,000 acres and is burning in Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity, Tehama, Glenn, Lake and Colusa counties. The state is in the middle of one of its worst fire seasons in history, with more than 3.9 million acres burned this year, which have killed 29 people and destroyed about 7,200 structures, according to Cal Fire.
California wine country wildfire rages; another could merge into mega-inferno of 1M acres - Crews kept a wary eye Thursday on potentially turbulent winds that could whip up two fierce wildfires in Northern California amid fears one could merge with a third blaze into a mega-inferno of more than 1 million acres.Weather forecasts called for gusty winds, extreme heat and low humidity in the wine country north of San Francisco, which may further fuel the Glass Fire as it continues to torch the hills above the town of Calistoga.Similar conditions may prompt the Zogg Fire, which has burned through 55,303 acres near Redding and left four people dead, to fuse with the August Complex Fire – which has already incinerated 955,513 acres. "It's likely the Zogg Fire may make its way into the August Complex, (which) remains the largest wildfire in terms of total acreage burned in California's history," California Gov. Gavin Newsom warned this week.The August Complex Fire was 47% contained as of Thursday; the Zogg Fire was 26% contained, nearly three times as much as the previous day as firefighters made considerable progress.In the wine country counties of Napa and Sonoma, more than 70,000 people remained under evacuation orders Thursday as the Glass Fire continued to ragethrough the rolling pastures and bucolic hills. The blaze, at just 5% containment, has burned 56,781 acres and destroyed 248 homes and businesses, including wineries and beloved landmarks such as Napa's famed Restaurant at Meadowood. As flames closed in, firefighters were battling to save Calistoga in Napa County, which evacuated its entire population of 5,000 on Monday. More fire crews and equipment were deployed overnight, raising the number of firefighters to 2,100. Red flag warnings of extreme fire danger were expected to continue into Friday evening for large stretches of Northern California.“Every time we try to construct some control lines, the fire is outflanking us, so we have to pull back,” Cal Fire Chief Mark Brunton said.Pacific Gas & Electric also cut power to an additional 3,100 customers in Napa County at the request of firefighters, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat reported.In addition to destruction, fear and displacement, the fires caused air quality to deteriorate markedly throughout Northern California, about half of which was blanketed by unhealthy air.
Evacuees describe devastation as California fires rage In a record-setting year of heatwaves and wildfires it appears as if there is no end in sight, with California experiencing another week of extreme heat and arid conditions, setting the stage for a another round of blazes. Although firefighters were able to make some progress on the fires last week, the current heatwave is set to continue until the end of the weekend, bringing little, if any, relief. The Weather Channel reports that as temperatures begin to drop for eastern states, West Coast conditions overall will remain “very likely above average,” confirming that the fires will persist well into November. This comes as a sobering reality check, considering California’s—and the rest of the West Coast’s—wildfire season is just beginning. And yet, perhaps it should come as little surprise, after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported recently that the Northern Hemisphere recorded its hottest summer yet. So far this year, over 8,100 fires have erupted throughout California, scorching close to 4 million acres. Five of the six largest fires in state history have occurred this year alone. Adding to these fires are the recent additions of the Glass and Zogg fires, both which ignited this past Sunday and have burned well over 100,000 acres collectively, tearing through Napa, Sonoma, and Shasta counties. Over 200 homes and other structures have been destroyed, and at least 4 people have been killed. The fires ripped through a number of local wineries, burning through vineyards and structures. Containment levels for both fires are at 5 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The Sonoma and Napa Valleys are world-famous for their wineries, with nearly 800 operations bringing in millions of dollars in tourism every year. As of Wednesday morning, Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Zogg fire was threatening to merge with the August Fire. If combined, the two fires would cover more than 1 million acres. Yet another blaze, the Martindale fire, broke out on Monday in the Santa Clarita Valley, just 40 minutes north of Los Angeles. Although considerably smaller than the former two, it burned 200 acres in its first 30 minutes and evacuation orders were issued to nearby residents. As of Thursday morning, it was holding at 300 acres and was 40 percent contained. Emphasizing the fact that there are still many weeks left in the fire season, Cal Fire unit chief in Sonoma and Napa Counties, Shana Jones told the New York Times that “We still have a lot of this season to go.” Numerous new fires are expected between now and the end of the year, which will no doubt call for a number of new evacuation orders and will leave hundreds of thousands of people vulnerable to the very stark reality that they, too, could lose their homes. As it is, evacuation centers have struggled in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic with the overwhelming number of evacuees pouring in from the Glass and Zogg fires. In the early hours of Monday morning, elderly residents of the Oakmont Village retirement community arrived at Santa Rosa Veteran Auditorium, set up as a temporary shelter. Pictures and video surfaced on Twitter displaying the crowd of elderly evacuees sitting on the lawn, waiting to be escorted inside. However, the auditorium quickly filled to capacity and, shortly after 3 a.m., they were moved to a shelter in Petaluma, about 20 minutes south of Santa Rosa. Scenes like this will replay throughout the remainder of the fire season. So far, close to 80,000 residents have had to flee their homes. Many people will never be able to return, having lost their homes and all earthly possessions.
Fast-Moving Fires Killed Nearly Half of These Endangered Washington Rabbits - The wildfires that roared through Eastern Washington in September had a devastating impact on an extremely endangered species of rabbit. The fast-moving Pearl Hill and Cold Springs fires scorched a habitat for Columbia Basin pygmy rabbits on Sept. 7, wiping out around half of the species' recovering population, High Country News reported Monday. "The sun was blotted out, it was just red from the fire glare and the smoke and all you saw was rocks and sand and dust, there was just nothing," Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) Biologist Jon Gallie told The Wenatchee World after the fire. "I have not seen a sagebrush fire that hot in my 13 years out here."Gallie leads a recovery program for North America's smallest rabbits, which are about the size of a grapefruit, according to High Country News. Their population was devastated during the 20th century by development, agriculture and wildfires and, in 2001, the last 16 were gathered from the wild for a captive breeding program. Scientists bred the Washington rabbits with pygmy rabbits from the Great Basin of the intermountain West and began to reintroduce them to the wild in 2011, according to The Wenatchee World. To defend against wildfires, the rabbits were released in three different locations: Jameson Lake, Beezley Hills and Sagebrush Flats. It was the Jameson Lake population that was lost to September's flames. However, WDFW manager of wildlife diversity Hannah Anderson told The Seattle Times that the department had been focusing on the Jameson Lake population and had expected it to increase. "It's devastating," Anderson said. "A catastrophic loss and a significant loss in recovery."The rabbits aren't the only endangered species that were harmed by the fires. The Pearl Fire may also have reduced the state's sage grouse population by 30 to 70 percent, according to The Seattle Times.The fires also damaged the sagebrush ecosystem these and other species depend upon. This unique, biodiverse shrub-steppe environment once covered 10.4 million acres of Washington state, but has declined by 80 percent since the mid-19th century. The fires wiped out thousands more acres within days.While sagebrush ecosystems are used to fires, invasive species of weeds have taken root that dry out early and encourage hotter, larger fires. It takes sagebrush steppe 10 to 20 years to recover from such blazes.
Trump's Bureau of Land Management Chief Forced Out After Judge Says He's Serving Unlawfully - A federal judge in Montana ordered William Perry Pendley, the head of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), to quit immediately after finding that the Trump administration official had served in the post unlawfully for 14 months, according to CNN.The ruling may reverse an entire year of decisions that Pendley made to open up the American West to oil and gas drilling, as The Washington Post reported. The judge in the case, Brian Morris of the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana, said that Pendley had been appointed to the post, but his name had never been submitted to the Senate for confirmation."Pendley has served and continues to serve unlawfully as the Acting B.L.M. director," wrote Morris in a 34-page ruling he issued on Friday, as The New York Times reported. He added that Pendley's authority "did not follow any of the permissible paths set forth by the U.S. Constitution."He added, as CNN reported, "Secretary Bernhardt lacked the authority to appoint Pendley as an Acting B.L.M Director under the (Federal Vacancies Reform Act). Pendley unlawfully took the temporary position beyond the 210-day maximum allowed by the F.V.R.A. Pendley unlawfully served as Acting B.L.M Director after the President submitted his permanent appointment to the Senate for confirmation — another violation of the F.V.R.A. And Pendley unlawfully serves as Acting B.L.M Director today, under color of the Succession Memo."The ruling went on to prohibit Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt, who appointed Pendley, from appointing a successor, according to The New York Times.The plaintiff in the case, Montana's Governor Steve Bullock, now has 10 days to present examples of decisions Pendley made that should be nullified, according to The Washington Post."They've never had a valid person running that agency," said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity, as The Guardian reported. "Even before Pendley there was just a never-ending list of rotating acting people, and that's not what you're supposed to do." Hartl added the lack of legitimate leadership could mean every BLM decision from the last three years is reversed.
Interior Secretary will lead BLM after judge ousts Pendley from public lands role --The Department of the Interior will not name a new acting director to lead the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) after it’s leader was ousted by a federal judge, top officials told employees in an email obtained by The Hill. Instead the job will be left to Interior Secretary David Bernhardt. A Montana-based U.S. district judge on Friday ruled William Perry Pendley, the controversial acting director of BLM, "served unlawfully ... for 424 days" and enjoined him from continuing in the role. The decision was in response to a suit from Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who argued Pendley, whose nomination to lead the BLM was pulled by the White House last month, was illegally serving in his role through a series of temporary orders. A Wednesday email makes clear that Interior will not be placing the top career official in charge of the nation’s public lands agency, as its department manual dictates. “I understand there may be some questions about the ruling on Friday regarding William Perry Pendley’s leadership role at the Bureau of Land Management,” Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Land and Minerals Management Casey Hammond wrote in an email to BLM staff. “Secretary Bernhardt leads the bureau and relies on the BLM’s management team to carry out the mission. Deputy Director for Programs and Policy, William Perry Pendley, will continue to serve in his leadership role.” Judge Brian Morris, an Obama appointee, ruled Friday that Interior and the White House improperly relied on temporary orders far beyond the 210 days allotted in the Federal Vacancies Reform Act while also violating the Constitutional requirement to seek approval from the Senate. “The President cannot shelter unconstitutional ‘temporary’ appointments for the duration of his presidency through a matryoshka doll of delegated authorities,” he wrote.
Maryland Will Be First State to Ban Foam Food Containers -Maryland will become the first state in the nation Thursday to implement a ban on foam takeout containers.The law, which was passed in 2019, prohibits restaurants and other institutions that serve food, such as schools, from using polystyrene containers, The Baltimore Sun reported."Single-use plastics are overrunning our oceans and bays and neighborhoods," chief bill sponsor Democratic Delegate Brooke Lierman told CNN when it passed. "We need to take dramatic steps to start stemming our use and reliance on them ... to leave future generations a planet full of wildlife and green space."Lierman said she had tried twice before to pass the bill, but a shift in public opinion against plastic pollution finally pushed it over the finish line.The law was originally scheduled to go into effect July 1, but officials delayed it by three months because of the coronavirus pandemic, CNN reported further. Dining has shifted from table service to takeout, and the government wanted to give impacted businesses more time to use up their extra foam, The Baltimore Sun explained.Some restaurant owners still oppose the ban, arguing that foam containers are cheaper and longer-lasting than alternatives."We don't like increased costs," Dan Schuman of Captain Dan's Crabhouse in Eldersburg told The Baltimore Sun. "No restaurant does. Because we have to pass that onto the customer."He said he was raising prices to cover the cost of new plastic containers, as well as an upcoming minimum wage increase.However, other restaurants have already made the change on their own and were pleased with the results. Victoria Gastro Pub bar manager Megan Purcell said the Victoria Restaurant Group switched to compostable takeaway containers two years ago. "It's just the right thing to do and it was time," Purcell told WMAR.
Scientists Created an Enzyme Cocktail That Eats Plastic - In a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, scientists found further evidence that the bacterium Ideonella sakaiensis produces two enzymes that break plastic down. Specifically, they work on polyethylene terephthalate, or PET, a type of plastic that’s used to make soda bottles and synthetic fabric for clothing.A team of Japanese scientists first discovered the bizarre bacteria in 2016 while examining plastic items found in wastewater samples. Since then, scientists have been working diligently to re-engineer that bacteria’s enzymes. The new study presents a major breakthrough. The first enzyme the bacteria produces, PETase, can eat through solid plastic surfaces. PET is a polymer, meaning it’s a chemical compound made up of a bunch of molecules all strung together to form a complex, strong, durable structure. But when PETase gets onto the material, it breaks it down into simpler structures, including terephthalate (or TPA), bis(2-hydroxyethyl) TPA (or BHET), and mono-(2-hydroxyethyl) terephthalate acid (or MHET). Essentially, this speeds up the natural disintegration so that it takes days instead of centuries to breakdown plastic.In 2018, the authors of the research engineered a version of the PETase enzyme, but it was only 20% more effective at degrading plastic than natural processes. But now, the researchers have tackled the second piece of the puzzle.The scientists have created the second enzyme that the bacteria produces, which is called MHETase. Essentially, the researchers explain, MHETase breaks down MHET, created in the first step of the breakdown process, into even simpler forms: TPA and ethylene glycol. At this point, the substances left can easily be broken down further by other micro-organisms.The researchers examined how these two enzymes reacted with pieces of plastic film in a lab setting, and found that without PETase around, MHETase doesn’t have any effect on the material. But the way the two work in concert could have big implications for the future of plastic waste if it’s able to scale. The study found this two-enzyme “cocktail” can break down plastic at a rate six times faster than naturally-occurring processes. This could revolutionize the way the world disposes of plastic waste. PET is the most common form of plastic in the world, and the world generates millions of tons of plastic waste each year.
Scientists Behind New Study Warn Increasingly Stable Oceans Are 'Very Bad News' --In a rare calm moment during a historically active Atlantic hurricane season, an international team of climate scientists on Monday published a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change showing that human-caused global heating is making the world's oceans more "stable"—which, as co-author Michael Mann explained, is "very bad news."Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State, detailed researchers' findings about ocean stratification in a piece for Newsweek. Using "more comprehensive data and a more sophisticated method for estimating stratification changes" than past studies, the scientists found that "oceans are not only becoming more stable, but are doing so faster than was previously thought."The team—led by Guancheng Li of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in China—specifically found that stratification globally increased by a "substantial" 5.3% from 1960 to 2018, mostly in the upper 650 feet or so of the world oceans. "This seemingly technical finding has profound and troubling implications," Mann noted."The more stable the upper ocean, the less vertical mixing that takes place. This mixing is a primary means by which the ocean buries warming surface waters. So the surface warms up even faster. It's what we call a 'positive feedback'—a vicious cycle," he wrote. "That's bad for a number of reasons." Noting the ongoing storm season and previous warnings from scientists—including him—that the increasingly devastating recent hurricanes "have fed off warmer surface waters," Mann explained that "a more stably stratified ocean potentially favors more intense, destructive hurricanes." Warmer waters also "absorb less atmospheric carbon dioxide" and "hold less dissolved oxygen." In other words, the new study indicates that "humans have made the oceans more stable, and the result will be more extreme weather and the acceleration of climate change," as study co-author John Abraham wroteMonday for The Guardian. Like Mann, he detailed the research team's findings about the stratification of the oceans, and the implications. Then, he added: The good news is we know why the climate is changing and we know how the oceans are responding. We can do something about this problem—we have the ability to slow down climate change. We just lack the will and leadership.
Sea level: Greenland ice loss worst in 12,000 years Ice loss from Greenland's massive ice sheet will cause sea levels to rise more during the 21st century than they have during any 100-year period in the last 12,000 years, even if global warming is held in check, scientists said Wednesday. a view of a snow covered mountain: If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the Greenland ice sheet will shed some 36 trillion tonnes of mass from 2000 to 2100, enough to lift the global ocean waterline by 10 centimetres, according to a new study© John SONNTAG If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the Greenland ice sheet will shed some 36 trillion tonnes of mass from 2000 to 2100, enough to lift the global ocean waterline by 10 centimetres, according to a new study The study -- based on ice core data and models and published in the journal Nature -- is the first to painstakingly reconstruct Greenland's ice loss record over the entire course of the Holocene, the geological epoch that has allowed civilisation to flourish. diagram: In 2019, Greenland cast off more than 500 billion tonnes of mass -- 40 percent of total sea level rise in 2019 and the most in a single year since satellite records began in 1978© Laurence CHU In 2019, Greenland cast off more than 500 billion tonnes of mass -- 40 percent of total sea level rise in 2019 and the most in a single year since satellite records began in 1978 It found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, the kilometres-thick ice block will shed some 36 trillion tonnes of mass from 2000 to 2100, enough to lift the global ocean waterline by 10 centimetres. Until the late 1990s, Greenland's ice sheet was roughly in balance, gaining as much mass through snowfall as it lost in summer from crumbling glaciers and melt-off. But accelerating climate change has destroyed that balance, with the net loss flowing into the north Atlantic. The northern hemisphere's only ice sheet ultimately holds enough frozen water to raise seas by seven metres. If it were to pass a temperature "tipping point" into irreversible decline -- a threshold that could be as low as two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels -- the ice sheet would likely take thousands of years to melt away, scientists say. But even in the short term, increases in sea level measured in tens of centimetres will devastate coastal communities around the world. Areas currently home to 300 million people -- mostly in poorer nations -- will be vulnerable by 2050 to regular flooding from storm surges, earlier research has shown.
1.8 Billion Tons More Greenhouse Gases Will Be Released, Thanks to Trump - When President Donald Trump visited California on September 14 and dismissed the state Secretary of Natural Resources Wade Crowfoot's plea to recognize the role of climate change in the midst of the Golden State's worst and most dangerous recorded fire season to date, he gaslighted the tens of millions of West Coast residents suffering through the ordeal. While Trump declared that the weather will just "start getting cooler" and that science is irrelevant to the wildfires, millions were struggling to breathe through the toxic smoke that gave Portland the week-long distinction of having the most hazardous air on the planet, with pollution levels in Seattle and San Francisco close behind. Whole towns in California and Oregon have been destroyed by the wildfires.A growing body of scientific evidence over the last several decades confirms that as atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases rise, so too will frequent, intense and increasingly deadly weather events. Strange new weather phenomena like fire tornadoes, "snowacanes" and "rain bombs" are now part of our experience and language. Droughts, unprecedented heat, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes and flooding are happening more often, becoming more severe, and occurring over larger and larger areas.This year several strange and extreme weather conditions combined to create the perfect firestorm across the Western U.S. A prolonged record-breaking heatwave saw temperatures reach 130 degrees Fahrenheit in Death Valley, California, on August 16, and 121 degrees Fahrenheit in the Los Angeles suburb of Woodland Hills three weeks later on September 6. In mid-August, more than 10,000 dry lightning strikes began igniting fires in Northern California, Oregon and Washington, including all over the Bay Area where they were eerily close to heavily populated areas. Lightning-induced fires are also torching Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Montana, Colorado and New Mexico. Subsequent high winds in drought-stricken landscapes then turned the initial sparks into major conflagrations. By the morning of Trump's California appearance, 28 major fires had incinerated more than 3 million acres just in California. Fires in California, Oregon and Washington had combined to create a hellscape of toxic smoke that turned the skies in those states orange, blood red and deep magenta and was detected as far away as Europe. At least 35 people had died.
1 in 4 adults cite climate change in decision not to have children -- Roughly a quarter of childless adults say climate change is a factor in their decision not to have children, according to a Monday poll from Morning Consult. Eleven percent of those surveyed said climate change was a major reason they would not have children, while 15 percent said it was a minor reason. Climate change rated behind other issues such as the economy, general political concerns, and career plans when it came to the decision to reproduce, but the poll shows the existential threat is weighing on peoples’ minds when it comes to family planning. Those figures were starker for minorities, with 40 percent of Hispanic and 30 percent on Black respondents saying climate change factored into their decision compared to 23 percent of white respondents. Younger respondents also reported climate change weighed more heavily on their decision, with 37 percent of Generation Z and 34 percent of millennials saying climate change was either a major or minor factor in their decision to have children. The poll was conducted with 2,201 respondents and has a 2 percent margin of error.
Will We Be Able to Reverse Trump’s Climate Damage? - When he talks about the Trump administration, David Doniger likes to say: "Imagine where we'd be if they knew what they were doing." The climate lawyer and senior advisor to the NRDC Action Fund spends his days defending the environment from the U.S. government, and for the past three and a half years, that's meant a front-row seat to the Trump administration's relentless attacks on any regulation that's meant to slow the climate crisis. But it's also been a window into the hasty, sloppy, and legally dubious ways that they've gone about it. "One of the hallmarks of this administration is how incompetently they're doing this," says Doniger. "It shows up in how slowly they've been able to work, and how flimsy their legal rationales are." Almost all of Trump's attempts at deregulation — some 100 rules that he's tried to eliminate or weaken — are being challenged in court, and environmentalists are steadily winning. According to the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University, the Trump administration has lost 69 of the 83 legal challenges it's faced in its deregulatory blitz."We were saved by their incompetence," says Andrew Wetzler, from the NRDC Action Fund, mainly by their failure to follow basic rule-making procedures. They rushed through the process, often shortening or entirely skipping over the required 60 days for public comment, which provided a clear opening for their rule changes to be challenged in court. The administration's ineptitude has given environmentalists hope that if Trump loses the election, the policy impact of his unrelenting pro-fossil fuel agenda could ultimately be short-lived. "If he's a one-term wonder," says Doniger, "the biggest consequence of the Trump administration may just turn out to be lost time." But time, at this hour of the climate fight, might be our most precious resource. As we stumble ever closer to the collapse of ice sheets, oceans and forests, the range of meaningful action we could take narrows. There is now believed to be more carbon dioxide in the air than any time in the last 3 million years. Our oceans are on track by the end of this century to become more acidic than they've been in some 15 million years — when they were enduring a major extinction event. Those oceans are also rising steadily enough to threaten the homes of 150 million people in the next three decades. "We lost years at a critical time," says Wetzler. "We're on the precipice of a number of climate and biological tipping points." And, he says, we won't fully understand the impact of that loss for years.
Cutting Emissions, Exporting Gas: Does Biden’s Climate Plan Make Sense? -For more than a decade, Susan Jane Brown has been battling to stop a natural gas pipeline and export terminal from being built in the backcountry of Oregon. As an attorney at the nonprofit Western Environmental Law Center, she has repeatedly argued that the project's environmental, social, and health costs are too high. Jordan Cove, the $10-billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project that Ms. Brown is trying to stop, has yet to break ground. But environmental lawsuits and permitting delays aren't the only barriers. A calamitous crash in natural gas prices and a glut of LNG capacity have cast doubts over its commercial viability and, more broadly, the easy promise of converting abundant U.S. gas into a global commodity and geopolitical tool. "There's too much oil. There's too much gas. There's not enough demand," Still, even if projects like Jordan Cove are shelved, several other LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast already have all their permits and are waiting to secure financing. Their expansion over the next five years would make the U.S. the world's largest LNG producer, creating jobs at home and opening new markets in energy-hungry Asia.For a future Biden administration, that's a wrinkle in any serious climate plan. Once built, these LNG plants would potentially lock in decades of heat-trapping emissions that are already hurling the planet toward a hotter, less stable future. "Once you build the infrastructure it's there, and it gets run on a different economic basis than if it's not there," says Mr. Williams-Derry, who tracks the LNG industry.Proponents say natural gas is cleaner than the coal that it replaces both in the U.S., where it now produces around 40% of electricity, and in countries like India and China. That makes it a "bridge fuel" to a fully renewable energy future that hasn't yet arrived, says Fred Hutchison, president and CEO of LNG Allies, an industry group. "Gas can continue to be part of a low-carbon energy system globally," he says.He predicts that LNG firms would be comfortable with a Biden presidency. "He's got a great affinity for working people and labor, and labor is very much on board with regards to LNG," he says.
Entergy to Rely on Gas while Claiming Net-Zero Emissions in 2050 -Entergy joined other large utilities last week in announcing its intent to achieve “net-zero emissions” by 2050, but like its regional peers of Duke and Southern, the company is charting a course that will rely heavily on gas. Gas, which is a fossil fuel that contributes to climate change, will make up as much as a quarter of Entergy’s electric capacity by 2050, according to the plan. Entergy CEO Leo Denault told investors in February the company planned to build as much as 4 gigawatts of new gas by 2030. Entergy’s net zero announcement, timed in advance of its “Virtual Analyst Day”, comes on the heels of Southern Company’s announcement that it too would rely on gas while still claiming net zero emissions. Peer utilities Consumers Energy, NIPSCO, and PSEG have pledged to forgo new gas, and APS and Xcel, which committed to fully decarbonizing by 2050 without the use of offsets. Entergy has repeatedly blocked action on climate at the operating company level; its New Orleans subsidiary threatened the City of New Orleans if the city proceeded with a plan that would force the utility to move toward clean energy as part of an effort to combat climate change. Entergy’s service territory includes much of the Louisiana and Texas coasts, which are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Climate change is the number one risk to the insurance industry, according to a 2019 report from the American Society of Actuaries. Entergy estimated Hurricane Laura would add between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion to customer bills in storm recovery costs. Entergy has fiercely opposed action to combat climate change, including threatening to sue the City of New Orleans for what advocates termed a “resilient renewable portfolio standard”, or R-RPS. The R-RPS, like a renewable portfolio standard, is a mandate to achieve a targeted percentage of energy from resources that are both renewable and resilient. Entergy threatened the City of New Orleans multiple times with litigation if it adopted “anything like” a 100% R-RPS. The company told the Council that R-RPS proposals from clean energy advocates would result in “years of litigation at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).” The company warned the Council that forcing it to retire a resource, such as a coal plant, would “lead to litigation.”Entergy also accused R-RPS advocates of “the intellectual equivalent of denying that climate change exists.” Entergy was undaunted by New Orleans City Council President Helena Moreno’saccusations that the company was breaching the public trust: the very next month, the utility accused advocates of engaging in “anti-intellectualism” and “climate solution denial.”
COURTS: Judge advances climate adaptation case against Shell -- Tuesday, September 29, 2020 -- A federal judge ruled yesterday that oil industry attorneys failed to prove why a climate adaptation case in Rhode Island against Royal Dutch Shell PLC should be tossed from the courts.
How to drive investment into sustainable infrastructure - World Economic Forum - Good infrastructure is the backbone of any successful society and economy. People need access to energy, transport, sanitation, hospitals and schools to thrive. Unfortunately, the way we have built much of this infrastructure over the last century has been extremely carbon intensive. Worse still, we will need to build much more of it in the coming decades, particularly in emerging and developing countries. Unless we quickly develop a new generation of sustainable infrastructure, it will be very hard to reverse catastrophic climate change. This will involve significant investment, up to $6.9 trillion per year through to 2030according to the OECD. Bringing private sector finance to the table is crucial.Many institutions have been engaged in mobilizing finance towards sustainable infrastructure: the G20, OECD, Multilateral Development Banks and the broader development finance institutions community; the Sustainable Development Investment Partnership (SDIP), the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), financial intermediaries, NGOs, and countless others have focused on this issue. Significant progress has been achieved. Guiding principles are emerging and a lot of innovation in blended finance has taken place over the years. Yet progress has been slow to close an investment gap estimated to be in excess of $3 trillion a year over the next 10 years. The generation of bankable projects involving renewable power, green transport, sustainable water and waste, and green buildings is expanding but remains inadequate and sub-scale in the developing world. Financing of infrastructure projects is limited and lacking sufficient investment from the private sector. Institutional investors are keen to invest in sustainable infrastructure, which can offer stable, long-term returns. However, there is currently no way for them to verify which assets are genuinely sustainable.That’s where the ‘Finance to Accelerate the Sustainable Transition-Infrastructure’ (FAST-Infra) initiative comes in. Its aim is to transform sustainable infrastructure into a mainstream, liquid asset class. To do this, it proposes to establish a consistent, globally applicable labelling system for investments in sustainable infrastructure assets. Through this labelling system, the market can easily signal the sustainability of the asset, and investors can trust that their money is going to projects that meet environmental, social, resiliency, and governance needs and contribute to the SDGs.A sustainable infrastructure label will ensure that governments and project developers embed high environmental, social, governance and resiliency standards into new infrastructure at the design and pre-construction phases, on the grounds that only assets incorporating such standards will obtain the label. The label will also attract private finance at the construction stage and new institutional investors at the post-construction phase. Alongside the labelling work, FAST-Infra is developing financial mechanisms to mobilize private investment at scale for the financing of labelled projects.
U.S. EPA chief challenges California effort to mandate zero emission vehicles in 2035 -- (Reuters) - The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Monday questioned California Governor Gavin Newsom’s plan to require all new passenger vehicle sales in 2035 be zero-emission models, according to a letter seen by Reuters. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said the plan “raises serious questions regarding its legality and practicality” and said it could cause problems for the state’s electrical grid. He also declared the move could be subject to federal approval, saying it “may require California to request a waiver to U.S. EPA.” The EPA in 2019 issued rules barring California from requiring the sale of electric vehicles; a court challenge is pending. Wheeler’s exchange with Democratic-led California comes as Republican President Donald Trump seeks to win votes in Midwestern auto manufacturing states in the Nov. 3 presidential contest.
EPA Raises Legal Questions About California’s Plan to Ban New Gas-Powered Cars Starting in 2035 – WSJ -The Environmental Protection Agency raised concerns about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to ban sales of new gasoline and diesel-powered passenger cars in the state by 2035, arguing that the mandate is impractical and possibly illegal.In a letter to Mr. Newsom on Monday, EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said a statewide shift to electric vehicles would strain California’s electric grid.“California’s record of rolling blackouts—unprecedented in size and scope—coupled with recent requests to neighboring states for power begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can’t even keep the lights on today,” Mr. Wheeler wrote in the letter.Mr. Wheeler also said the order likely wouldn’t be able to be implemented by the California Air Resources Board without approval from the EPA, noting that the Trump administration in 2019 took away California’s power to set its own vehicle tailpipe emissions standards.“While the Trump Administration tries to drive this country off a climate cliff, California is once again assuming the mantle of leadership in the fight against climate change,” Jesse Melgar, Mr. Newsom’s press secretary, said in a statement. “We aren’t going to back down from protecting our kids’ health and the air they breathe.”The governor’s order, which he signed last week, is an ambitious step to bolster electric vehicles and slash greenhouse-gas emissions. The order is aimed at new-car sales and won’t prohibit Californians from owning or selling existing gas-powered cars, Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said last week.California would be the first U.S. state to ban gas-powered vehicles, but other countries, including France and Germany, have adopted similar goals. The California governor has made climate change a central part of his policy agenda, and in announcing the order cast the measure as a step toward tackling the problem.
EPA ridicules California's proposed ban of new gas cars (AP) — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chief Andrew Wheeler on Monday ridiculed California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, saying the proposal raises “significant questions of legality.”Last week, Newsom signed an executive order directing state regulators to come up with rules that would ban the sale of all new gas-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035. He said the plan will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35%.On Monday, Wheeler sent Newsom a letter questioning how the state could add millions of electric vehicles despite having “a record of rolling blackouts.” He said it “begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can’t even keep the lights on today.” California had its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years last month when demand for electricity during a heat wave was so high the state ran out of power. More than half a million homes and businesses lost power for about an hour. The state came close to mandatory power shutoffs a few other times this year, but was able to avoid them.“The truth it that if the state were driving 100 percent electric vehicles today, the state would be dealing with even worse power shortages than the ones that have already caused a series of otherwise preventable environmental and public health consequences,” Wheeler wrote. The blackouts in August were complicated by a heat wave that blanketed much of the West, making it more difficult for California to purchase surplus power from other states. Newsom has ordered an investigation of the blackouts and has signed an emergency proclamation allowing more energy users and providers to tap into backup power.Meanwhile, massive wildfires continue to burn across the state, aided in size and intensity by climate change. Newsom has said the fires have strengthened his resolve to combat climate change.
A Major Supply Shortage Is Set To Hit Lithium Markets - Lithium producers do not feel threatened by Tesla’s plan to produce lithium in Nevada. Miners, as well as analysts, believe that despite the recent drop in lithium prices, the industry is in for a supply shortage after 2025 as automakers significantly ramp up electric vehicle (EV) production. Massive amounts of additional lithium supply will be needed to support not only the EV revolution but also the expected surge in stationary battery storage to support the wider adoption of renewable energy. Therefore, lithium mining companies and researchers are looking to develop innovative ways to produce lithium more efficiently, in order to meet what they expect will be growing demand from the automotive sector in the coming years. Tesla, for its part, is looking to source its own lithium in the United States in a more environmentally friendly way, Elon Musk said on Tesla’s Battery Day last week. Lithium extraction needs to “reinvent” itself to meet demand, the chief executive of Standard Lithium, Robert Mintak, told Bloomberg in a recent interview. “We’re not going to be saddled with 20-year-old processes and refining capabilities,” Mintak told Bloomberg. Stocks of lithium producers plunged in the wake of Tesla’s announcement, but analysts believe there will be more than enough room for everyone in the market, considering the increase in EV production and stationary storage installation globally. “We appreciate Tesla’s goal to secure its raw materials supply. However, we disagree with the claim that Tesla will be able to supply all its own lithium. While we view lithium as an abundant resource, with lithium present in ocean water, nearly all of the world's lithium is not economically viable to extract at current prices,” Seth Goldstein, a senior equity analyst for Morningstar, wrote after Tesla’s Battery Day. According to Morningstar, Nevada could supply less than half of U.S. demand for EVs in 2030. According to Wood Mackenzie's Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) scenario, which sees global warming limited to 2.5 degrees Celsius, the world’s lithium market could surpass 1 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025.
Dominion Energy West Virginia files base rate adjustment case with Public Service Commission -– Dominion Energy West Virginia (DEWV) filed an application on Wednesday with the Public Service Commission requesting an increase to its base rates for natural gas service. A press release from Dominion stated that in its 2018 pipeline replacement and expansion program (PREP) case, DEWV committed to filing a base rate case in 2020. “For generations, DEWV customers have depended on us to provide affordable, safe and reliable natural gas service to their homes and businesses,” said Jim Eck, Vice President & General Manager, West Virginia Distribution. “We do not take this responsibility lightly and this adjustment to our base rate is key to our continued ability to deliver on this commitment and expectation.” The release stated that if the base rate increase is approved, the monthly bill for a typical residential customer who uses on average, 6.5 mcf per month, would increase by $8.58. The $12.17 gross monthly bill increase reflected in the filing is due to the partial offset and simultaneous change in the PREP rate, the other main component of customers’ monthly bills, according to the release. DEWV officials said it is expected that the commission will suspend the new rates by procedural order, and thus new base rates would be effective in July 2021. Since the last rate review, the company has made significant investments in assets and operating resources to serve an expanding customer base; maintain the safety, reliability and efficiency of its system; and meet increasingly stringent reliability, security and environmental requirements, the release stated. Approximately one third of the base rate increase relates to DEWV’s recent acquisition of natural gas gathering pipeline facilities in order to preserve and improve reliable natural gas service to nearly 10,000 of its existing farm tap customers – an acquisition previously approved by the Public Service Commission in May 2020, according to the release. The proposed base rate adjustment is consistent with increases that other West Virginia gas utilities have experienced over the last decade. Natural gas continues to be an affordable energy option for West Virginians, DEWV officials said in the release.
Offshore Moratorium Includes Wind Energy - On Sept. 8, President Trump signed an order prohibiting offshore leasing for energy exploration, development or production off the coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Trump said Sept. 25 during an event he would add North Carolina and Virginia to the moratorium.Though not explicitly stated in the executive orders, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has confirmed that wind energy is included in the withdrawal.“The withdrawal includes all energy leasing, including conventional and renewable energy, beginning on July 1, 2022. No new leases will be issued offshore North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, for a 10-year period beginning July 1, 2022,” Stephen Boutwell, BOEM spokesperson, told Coastal Review Online Wednesday.Trump signed the memorandum Sept. 25 that states, “I hereby withdraw from disposition by leasing for 10 years, beginning on July 1, 2022, and ending on June 30, 2032: The portion of the area designated by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management as the Mid Atlantic Planning Area that lies south of the northern administrative boundary of North Carolina,” as that administrative boundary depicted on the Atlantic NAD 83 Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Administrative Boundaries map. The memorandum does not appear to include Virginia.The memorandum also states, “This withdrawal prevents consideration of this area for any leasing for purposes of exploration, development, or production during the 10-year period beginning on July 1, 2022, and ending on June 30, 2032.”The move to prohibit renewable energy is counter to a June 2017 proclamation from the White House. “Today, our offshore areas remain underutilized and often unexplored. We have yet to fully leverage new technologies and unleash the forces of economic innovation to more fully develop and explore our ocean economy. In the field of energy, we have just begun to tap the potential of our oceans’ oil and gas, wind, wave, and tidal resources to power the Nation,” according to the proclamation. The president announced Sept. 8 in Jupiter, Florida, the order to extend an earlier moratorium on offshore drilling on Florida’s Gulf Coast and expand it to Florida’s Atlantic Coast, as well as the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Broken wind farm blades worry local farmers, residents near Lexington - Tim Jolly is a fifth-generation McLean County farmer.However, while farming in the footprint of a wind farm near Lexington, Jolly has major concerns over the potential of falling debris from nearby wind farm turbines from the Bright Stalk Wind Farm.At least three of the turbines appear to have been damaged over the summer and Jolly is wondering why. “I’ve got one 2,000 feet behind my house,” Jolly said. “My property line is 600-700 feet from that windmill. Those things are 550 feet tall. I have seen some pictures of aerial shots around windmills that broke off and there is debris out in the fields. So, that means they were spinning and threw debris out into the field. The people who signed up to have those on their property should be deathly afraid of what could happen.”Construction on the Bright Stalk Wind Farm southeast of Chenoa was completed at the end of 2019, and is capable of producing enough energy to power more than 73,000 average Illinois homes, according to the developer, EDP Renewables. Two blades on a pair of wind turbines near the intersection of Weston blacktop and 2450 East in Lawndale Township near Lexington broke this summer. With 57 turbines totaling 205 megawatts of capacity, this wind farm was about a $348 million project and will generate up to $2.6 million per year in local taxes. The company confirmed to The Pantagraph that two wind turbines, manufactured by Vestas, experienced blade failures on Sept. 7 and on Sept. 15, a third blade failure occurred. Following the occurrences, Vestas and EDP Renewables are completing a sitewide inspection of the blades on the other 54 wind turbines.
Entergy to Rely on Gas while Claiming Net-Zero Emissions in 2050 -Entergy joined other large utilities last week in announcing its intent to achieve “net-zero emissions” by 2050, but like its regional peers of Duke and Southern, the company is charting a course that will rely heavily on gas. Gas, which is a fossil fuel that contributes to climate change, will make up as much as a quarter of Entergy’s electric capacity by 2050, according to the plan. Entergy CEO Leo Denault told investors in February the company planned to build as much as 4 gigawatts of new gas by 2030. Entergy’s net zero announcement, timed in advance of its “Virtual Analyst Day”, comes on the heels of Southern Company’s announcement that it too would rely on gas while still claiming net zero emissions. Peer utilities Consumers Energy, NIPSCO, and PSEG have pledged to forgo new gas, and APS and Xcel, which committed to fully decarbonizing by 2050 without the use of offsets. Entergy has repeatedly blocked action on climate at the operating company level; its New Orleans subsidiary threatened the City of New Orleans if the city proceeded with a plan that would force the utility to move toward clean energy as part of an effort to combat climate change. Entergy’s service territory includes much of the Louisiana and Texas coasts, which are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Climate change is the number one risk to the insurance industry, according to a 2019 report from the American Society of Actuaries. Entergy estimated Hurricane Laura would add between $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion to customer bills in storm recovery costs. Entergy has fiercely opposed action to combat climate change, including threatening to sue the City of New Orleans for what advocates termed a “resilient renewable portfolio standard”, or R-RPS. The R-RPS, like a renewable portfolio standard, is a mandate to achieve a targeted percentage of energy from resources that are both renewable and resilient. Entergy threatened the City of New Orleans multiple times with litigation if it adopted “anything like” a 100% R-RPS. The company told the Council that R-RPS proposals from clean energy advocates would result in “years of litigation at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).” The company warned the Council that forcing it to retire a resource, such as a coal plant, would “lead to litigation.”Entergy also accused R-RPS advocates of “the intellectual equivalent of denying that climate change exists.” Entergy was undaunted by New Orleans City Council President Helena Moreno’saccusations that the company was breaching the public trust: the very next month, the utility accused advocates of engaging in “anti-intellectualism” and “climate solution denial.”
Baltimore needs to stick with the plan of letting the Wheelabrator trash incinerator close -- Baltimore Sun - The right to breathe clean air in Baltimore is at risk. For 35 years, Baltimore’s air has been fouled by the city’s largest air polluter, the Wheelabrator/BRESCO trash incinerator. This large smokestack by I-95 with “BALTIMORE” emblazoned on it spews toxic lead, mercury, dioxins, particulate matter, acid gases and nitrogen oxides into our air, contributing to asthma attacks, cancer, COPD, heart attacks, strokes and learning disabilities.A study of just one of these pollutants found that Wheelabrator’s pollution causes $55 million in annual harm to health, mostly from cutting lives short. Harvard found this same pollutant (fine particulate matter) increases deaths from COVID-19. With Black residents suffering the most from COVID-19 deaths in Maryland, this is a social justice issue that cannot be ignored. Thankfully, Baltimore City Council has been routinely standing up for the community in supporting efforts for clean air, environmental justice, and a transition away from incineration to “zero waste,” and the creation of five to 10 times as many jobs through the practices of reuse, recycling, and composting. If not for a bad lower court ruling, that law would have taken effect this month, forcing the closure of Wheelabrator’s trash incinerator as well as Curtis Bay Medical Waste Services, the nation’s largest medical waste incinerator. Neither incinerator is needed as we have adequate non-burn alternatives already in place in the city. The city’s contract to burn waste at Wheelabrator ends the last day of 2021. It’s worrisome that, in the last ten weeks of Mayor Bernard “Jack” Young’s administration, there’s talk about signing a new contract early to keep burning Baltimore’s trash for an additional five to 10 years, binding the hands of the next mayor.
China Calls For 'Green Revolution' - Right After Approving "New Fleet Of Coal Plants" - Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans last week to boost China's Paris climate accord target - calling for a green revolution and promising to achieve a peak in carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, and carbon neutrality before 2060. "China will scale up its intended Nationally Determined Contributions (to the Paris agreement) by adopting more vigorous policies and measures," he said, urging the rest of the world to adopt a "green recovery of the world economy in the post-Covid era."That all sounds nice - except that as AFP (via Straits Times) notes, "fresh spending on coal to rev up a virus-hit economy threatens to nullify its audacious bid to lead the world into a low carbon future."The fossil fuel has powered China's economic surge over the last 30 years, and the nation burns about half the coal used globally each year.Between 2000 and 2018, its annual carbon emissions nearly tripled, and it now accounts for nearly a third of the world's total greenhouse gases linked to global warming.Despite pledges to wean the economy off coal with the world's most ambitious investment in renewables, China's coal consumption climbed back in June this year to near the peak levels seen in 2013.That was in part due to a pivot back to coal after geopolitical uncertainty in the Saudi peninsula, China's main oil supplier. -AFP via Straits TimesAfter COVID-19 drove China's economy to contract for the first time in three-decades, Chinese officials revved up the production of coal plants in order to revive provincial economies in dire circumstances. According to Li Shuo, senior climate and energy officer at Greenpeace China, there's a "tension at the heart of China's energy planning" which "pits Beijing's strategic interests against the immediate goals of cash-strapped provincial governments, makes it difficult to walk the talk" about a cleaner future. "China's energy policy is like a two-headed beast, with each head trying to run in the opposite direction," he added.
Vistra to retire 6.8 GW coal, blaming 'irreparably dysfunctional MISO market' | Utility Dive - Competitive energy supplier Vistra on Tuesday announced it would retire6,800 MW of coal by 2027, blaming in part its grid operator's "irreparably dysfunctional" market. The company owns seven coal-fired power plants across the Midwest, mostly within the territory of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), and would retire the majority of its plants through 2025-2027 "or sooner should economic or other conditions dictate," the company said in a statement. Company officials blamed state subsidies, declining gas prices, an overbuild of resources and the "systemic failure of the MISO capacity market to provide Illinois-based power plants with adequate revenues" for its coal fleet. The announcement marks one of the largest coal fleet retirements in U.S. history, according to the Sierra Club. More competitive prices for wind, solar and gas, along with an increase in state-level efforts to eliminate coal-fired power have exacerbated the pressure on coal, rendering it largely uncompetitive compared to other market resources. Merchant coal plants are uniquely vulnerable to coal's failing economics within competitive markets, because unlike vertically integrated rate-regulated utilities, competitive energy providers are unable to recover any losses associated with plants through their ratebase. Vistra blames the economic decline of its coal fleet on a number of factors, including state subsidies for renewable energy and nuclear power, existing and future environmental regulations and "regulatory and political headwinds," said Vistra spokesperson Meranda Cohn in an email. These already unfavorable conditions in MISO, along with the PJM Interconnection, are further under threat from Illinois' and New Jersey's threats to leave the wholesale markets through a Fixed Resource Requirement (FRR), or some other option, she said. MISO declined to comment. Zero-emission credits in Illinois have been blamed for similar price distortions in the PJM Interconnection, which shares the state with MISO. Those complaints wrought by competitive generator Calpine ultimately led to the creation of the Minimum Offer Price Rule, which raises the bid floor for subsidized resources selling into the PJM market. And that rule is the reason behind New Jersey and Illinois' threats to leave PJM, which Cohn said would put "pressure on our PJM plants." But though the company blames state policies in part for failing economics, Vistra's CEO earlier this year noted the pressure was almost entirely markets-based. "The one key about coal plants is that they're closing naturally because natural gas prices are low, which then turns power prices low," Curt Morgan, president and CEO said in a February interview. "Even though the States are anti coal, what is interesting is that's not why coal plants are shutting down."
In Pennsylvania coal country, miners forgive Trump for failed revival - (Reuters) - Rick Bender, who owns a coal processing plant in Hegins, Pennsylvania, voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016, in part because of his promise to revive the industry from a decade-long decline. The revival never came. Bender says he is struggling to keep workers employed at the plant in eastern Pennsylvania because coal prices are so low. Still, he plans to vote for Trump again come November. He says the president's Democratic challenger Joe Biden is too focused on fighting climate change. "We feel if Trump doesn't get elected, the coal business is done," said Bender, 61. Bender represents a dynamic that could complicate Democratic efforts to win back battleground states like Pennsylvania in the 2020 fight for the White House. Instead of punishing Trump for failing to deliver the coal renaissance he promised, many voters with ties to blue-collar industries continue to support him. Reuters interviewed 26 coal workers across Pennsylvania and found that all but one plans to back Trump on Nov. 3. While many cited faults with the president, whose incendiary style turns some off, they fear Biden’s clean-energy plan would hasten coal's decline, and that the new green jobs wouldn't come quickly enough to keep their families financially secure. An experienced miner can expect to earn as much as $100,000 annually including overtime, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “There really is a very big human cost of just turning the light switch off," on coal, said Jarrod Gieniec, 40, a miner at Silver Creek in eastern Pennsylvania's Schuylkill County.
New rule may strip pollution protections from popular lakes (AP) — Nearly 50 years ago, a power company received permission from North Carolina to build a reservoir by damming a creek near the coastal city of Wilmington. It would provide a source of steam to generate electricity and a place to cool hot water from an adjacent coal-fired plant. Sutton Lake became popular with boaters and anglers, yielding bass, crappie, bluegill and other panfish. But coal ash from the plant fouled the public reservoir with selenium, arsenic and other toxic substances, endangering the fish and people who ate them. Environmentalists sued Duke Energy, which settled the case by spending $1.25 million protecting nearby wetlands. But now the company — and other U.S. power producers — may have gotten the last laugh. The Trump administration this year completed a long-debated rewrite of the Clean Water Act that drastically reduces the number of waterways regulated by the federal government. A little-noticed provision for the first time classifies “cooling ponds” as parts of “waste treatment systems” — which are not covered under the law. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the power industry describe it as a clarification with little real-world effect. But environmental groups challenging the Trump rule in court say it opens up reservoirs like Sutton Lake to similar abuse. “These lakes are sources of food, drinking water, recreation and property values for surrounding communities,” said Frank Holleman, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center. “They’ve been protected under the Clean Water Act ever since it’s been adopted, all the way back to Nixon. No responsible adult would have stripped away these protections.” The provision on reservoirs is an example of “hidden bombs” that could lurk in the new regulation’s fine print, said Mark Ryan, a former EPA attorney who helped craft the Obama administration’s clean-water rule that was replaced by the substantially weaker Trump version. “Congress needs to fix this, or it will be tied up in litigation forever,” Ryan said.
Collapse over sinkhole on NC 150 remains under investigation -- The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality is in the midst of an ongoing investigation concerning the collapse pavement over a sinkhole in Mooresville. On Sept. 17, following heavy rainfall, a previously repaired sinkhole reopened in the parking lot of an auto shop at 190 W. Plaza Drive. The sinkhole was repaired in both 2018 and 2019 and reopened due to the collapse of a culvert pipe, according to the DEQ. The auto shop and its adjoining parking lot were built on top of a coal ash deposit, something which only became known to the DEQ in 2019, and it has been monitoring it ever since. Following the sinkhole reopening, the DEQ discovered sediment containing coal ash in a nearby tributary. They collected water samples and have continued to monitor the situation. The DEQ is discussing possible solutions with the owners of the property, along with the North Carolina Department of Transportation, on the next step. That particular property is also within the N.C. 150 expansion plan. Iredell County and state emergency management authorities also were alerted of the sinkhole collapse.
Georgia Power responds to Juliette lawsuit; asks16 residents be barred from proceedings --- Georgia Power has legally responded to a lawsuit filed by some residents in Juliette as those residents claim their well water has been contaminated by a coal ash pond at Plant Scherer. The energy company provided an affirmative defense, which is when the defendant introduces evidence of their own into the case. According to the Legal Information Institute, if the evidence is "found to be credible, will negate criminal liability or civil liability, even if it is proven that the defendant committed the alleged acts." "Without admitting or acknowledging that Georgia Power bears the burden of proof as to any of them, Georgia Power asserts the following affirmative defenses," reads the start of the document. The company gave multiple defenses, from complaints "failing to state a claim upon which relief can be granted against Georgia Power" to the company denying "Plaintiffs incurred any injury or damages." The response, along with multiple other motions, was filed on September 28 in the Fulton County Superior Court. Georgia Power also "seeks the dismissal of sixteen (16) Plaintiffs because their claims are barred by the applicable statutes of limitation." According to court documents, 16 residents on the current lawsuit sued Georgia Power in 2013 alleging that the coal combustion and emissions at Plant Scherer caused personal injuries and property damages. "Because of the statutes of limitations for their claims expired before filing their current lawsuit, the 2013 Plaintiffs should be dismissed," reads Georgia Power's motion for judgment on the pleadings.
Federal Judge Dismisses Roane County Coal Ash Lawsuit - A lawsuit filed against the Tennessee Valley Authority and one of its contractors has been dismissed. Federal Judge Thomas Varlan said the plaintiffs -- Roane County and the cities of Harriman and Kingston – failed to prove TVA and Jacobs Engineering could be held liable for certain claims, or waited too long to pursue legal action. Seven claims were contained in a lawsuit filed in May 2019, accusing TVA and Jacobs of negligence, public nuisance and fraudulent conduct. In his ruling Wednesday, Varlan rejected every claim as insufficiently proven or past the statute of limitations. The lawsuit stemmed from a 2008 disaster in which a coal ash storage pond retaining wall collapsed, sending hundreds of thousands of gallons of toxin-containing material pouring into nearby homes and the Clinch and Emory rivers. Cleaning it up cost TVA more than a billion dollars. Roane County and its municipalities initially declined to sue, accepting instead TVA’s offer to spend $43 million on economic development projects in the area. The governments changed their minds in November 2018, when attorneys in a different trial presented evidence that TVA and Jacobs had not fully disclosed the dangers of coal ash and its constituent materials, which include mercury and arsenic. To date, fifty cleanup workers have died and more than 400 others have become ill. Some of the workers and their families say their illnesses are linked to the coal ash and have sued Jacobs Engineering, claiming the company misled them about the hazards of the job and failed to provide adequate protective equipment. Those lawsuits are in mediation, and Jacobs has asked Judge Varlan to dismiss them. TVA is not a party to those suits. TVA defended its post-spill conduct in a statement sent to local press outlets Thursday. “TVA properly accepted responsibility for the 2008 ash spill. We committed to restore the site to as good or better condition than we found it; and according to the regulatory agencies, we have,” the statement read. “Since 2008, we’ve contributed almost $100 million (dollars and in-kind) to the area around the Kingston plant, the majority of which went to Roane County and the cities of Kingston and Harriman.”
Coal dust has long plagued Norfolk, Newport News. With $500,000 grant, Virginia plans to study what’s in the air. - Residents of Norfolk’s Lamberts Point and the Southeast Community in Newport News have long complained that coal dust seeps into their neighborhoods, coating cars and potentially impacting people’s health. For the first time on a large scale, Virginia officials now plan to study exactly which and how many toxins are in the air. Advertisement The state Department of Environmental Quality received a $526,603 grant this week from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The project will include monitoring air toxics metals for a year and conducting health risk assessments in the two communities. Chuck Turner, the department’s manager of air quality monitoring, said the opportunity to apply for the grant came up in March. Though officials had several projects in mind, “this one stood out because there has been a long history of both communities having concerns about coal dust and how they’re impacted by it.” “There’s been no movement until now on getting a handle on the toxics metals content,” Turner said.
Bob Murray, Who Fought Black Lung Regulations As A Coal Operator, Has Filed For Black Lung Benefits - Robert E. Murray, the former CEO and president of the now-bankrupt Murray Energy, has filed an application with the U.S. Department of Labor for black lung benefits. For years, Murray and his company fought against federal mine safety regulations aimed at reducing the debilitating disease. “I founded the company and created 8,000 jobs there until the move to end coal use. I am still chairman of the board,” he wrote on a Labor Department form that initiated his claim obtained by the Ohio Valley ReSource. “We’re in bankruptcy, and due to my health could not handle the president and CEO job any longer.” According to sources, Murray’s claim is still in the initial stages and is being evaluated to determine the party potentially responsible for paying out the associated benefits. The Labor Department is required to determine a liable party before an initial ruling can be made on entitlement to benefits. If Murray’s claim were to go before an administrative law judge, some aspects of the claim would become a matter of public record. The Ohio Valley ReSource confirmed the authenticity of Murray’s claim documents by inputting associated information — including his last name, birthdate and a case ID number — into an online portal maintained by the Labor Department. In his claim, Murray, who is now 80 years old, writes that he is heavily dependent on the oxygen tank he is frequently seen using, and is “near death.” He states in his claim for benefits that he worked underground while supervising operations throughout the years. “During my 63 years working in underground coal mines, I worked 16 years every day at the mining face underground and went underground every week until I was age 75,” Murray wrote in his claim.
What's next for Duane Arnold nuclear plant? --Duane Arnold Energy Center near Palo did not restart after the Aug. 10 derecho caused “extensive” damage to its cooling towers. As decommissioning work begins, here’s what we know: As of 2018 when decommissioning was announced, about 500 worked at the facility. Now, about 400 workers still are at Duane Arnold, NextEra Energy spokesman Peter Robbins said. Dean Curtland, plant director, told The Gazette in 2018 Iowa’s changing energy landscape has overshadowed and outpriced Duane Arnold. Closing the facility could save NextEra about $300 million over 21 years, with cost savings coming as early as 2021. That translates to about $42 per residential customer. NextEra Energy already was planning on decommissioning Duane Arnold this year.When the derecho caused “extensive” damage to the facility’s cooling towers, NextEra opted against restarting the plant so close to the Oct. 30 decommissioning date. Replacing the cooling towers with fewer than three months until decommissioning was “not feasible,” Robbins said last month. The decommissioning process is underway as employees remove nuclear material from the facility.
Duke Energy's $540M Contract for Takedown of Florida Nuclear Plant Gets Underway - Takedown of the defunct 860-MW Crystal River nuclear plant in Florida now begins with final agreement reached Oct. 1 on the $540-million contract between owner Duke Energy and contractor Accelerated Decommissioning Partners initially signed last year. Work will be done under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's immediate dismantling protocol that allows structures and equipment with nuclear contamination to be removed before radioactivity has time to decay. The utility originally planned in 2015 to defer decommissioning for 60 years to allow that decay under NRC’s SAFSTOR protocol, which also enables the site's NRC-mandated trust fund to build financial reserves to pay for the work. But as competition in the nuclear decommissioning sector drove prices down, Duke determined that the fast-track process could be done within the budget of the $711-million trust fund, Heather Danenhower, company communications manager, told ENR. The plant is located in Citrus County, Fla., about 85 miles north of Tampa. Accelerated Decommissioning Partners, a joint venture of NorthStar Group Services and Orano USA, was selected in 2019 after four companies responded to a 2018 request for proposals. NRC approved transfer of the plant’s operating license in April and the Florida Public Service Commission approved the contract award transaction in late August, followed by a 30-day appeals window that closed Sept. 28, Danenhower said. Decommissioning should be completed by 2027. Initial decommissioning will focus on removing radioactive contaminants before full-scale site demolition. Duke Energy retains ownership of the plant and expects its 1,000-acre site to be reduced to two acres in 2026 when a partial license termination is expected and only dry-cask storage of nuclear materials remains. After the dry-cask stored materials are removed from site, possibly by 2038, money remaining in the trust fund will return to ratepayers.
Texas Governor Urges Trump to Oppose Nuclear Waste Plans — Texas Governor Greg Abbott has come out against two rival plans to ship highly radioactive waste from the nation’s nuclear power plants to sites on the Texas-New Mexico border, saying either plan would be unsafe and would threaten the region’s sprawling Permian Basin oilfield. “A stable oil and gas industry is essential to the economy, and crucial to the security of our great nation,” Abbott, a Republican, wrote in a letter to President Donald Trump on Wednesday. “Allowing the interim storage of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste at sites near the largest producing oilfield in the world will compromise the safety of the region.” The nuclear waste plans have for years drawn the ire of advocacy groups who worry about a range of possible environmental and safety threats, but oil and gas interests have become increasingly involved in the fight as well. A coalition of oil companies and West Texas landowners called Protect the Basin was launched in 2018 to oppose the plans and has more recently stepped up its outreach. One of the coalition members, a ranching and oil company tied to one of the nation’s richest families, has been involved in fighting the issue all the way up to the D.C. Circuit. “It’s an unusual thing for environmentalists and oil companies to be on the same page, and we are on this issue,” said Karen Hadden, an environmental advocate who leads the Austin-based Sustainable Energy and Economic Development Coalition. In his letter Wednesday, Abbott urged Trump to also oppose the waste plans, echoing a call from Democratic New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who wrote to the president over the summer. For years, two companies have been competing for a federal license that would allow them to take in shipments of “high-level” radioactive waste from all over the country, mostly in the form of used-up nuclear fuel from power plants. Congress and the federal government have been wrangling for decades over how and where to dispose of the nation’s growing stockpile of high-level waste, but a clear path forward has never emerged. The Trump administration once flirted with the idea of reviving a long-stalled plan to dispose of the waste at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, but the president seemed to backtrack on that idea in February. “Nevada, I hear on you Yucca Mountain and my Administration will RESPECT you!” Trump wrote in a Twitter post in early February. The two companies in New Mexico and Texas are asking regulators for the go-ahead to “store” the waste until a final disposal site is located, but that could realistically amount to the waste sitting at one of the temporary sites for decades.
PSEG asks for $300M for South Jersey nuclear plants | NJ Spotlight News - Public Service Enterprise Group yesterday filed an application to retain $300 million in ratepayer subsidies annually to keep its fleet of nuclear plants in South Jersey operating. The application, filed with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, rekindles a dispute over whether the plants need the subsidies to remain open, a controversy still being debated in the courts, before regulators, and within the energy sector. Like the original application, the request for the subsidies includes the Exelon Corp., a co-owner of the Salem I and Salem II nuclear units. PSEG initially won the subsidies in a 2018 vote by a divided BPU, which took that step to avoid the closing of the three nuclear units on Artificial Island in Salem County. Without new financial incentives, the company’s CEO Ralph Izzo threatened to close the plants, which supply roughly 90% of the carbon-free electricity used by customers in New Jersey. In seeking three more years of ratepayer subsidies, PSEG officials argued the need for the financial incentives is greater than ever. “We are in a more difficult position today than when we first applied,’’ said Rick Thigpen, a senior vice president, blaming the economic situation in the wholesale energy markets, where prices have dropped. Since 2018, three nuclear plants in the U.S. have closed, all for economic reasons, according to PSEG. “New Jersey can only achieve its ambitious clean energy goals with nuclear energy in the mix,’’ Thigpen said.
When Zero-Carbon Nuclear Asks For Money, States Find It Hard To Say No - The press release created instant shock waves. On August 27th, Exelon Corporation, one of the biggest suppliers of electricity in the U.S., announced that in a year it would close two nuclear plants in Illinois that together produce four gigawatts of power, even though the plants are licensed to operate for decades more. The two plants — Byron and Dresden — "face revenue shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars," Chicago-based Exelon said.State and local officials denounced the move as reckless saber-rattling. Not only would the plants' closure cost thousands of good jobs, it would also jeopardize Illinois' clean energy ambitions.Yet Exelon’s announcement, far from unprecedented, is part of a well-worn pattern. In at least four states from Ohio to New York, a handful of nuclear companies have taken a now-familiar series of actions: announce closures, enter tense talks with state officials concerned about the loss of good jobs and clean power, win subsidies, rescind the closures. Some portray this as brinkmanship, arguing that nuclear power companies know states can’t afford to lose them and so threaten premature closures in exchange for padded profits. “We’ve seen this Exelon rate hike and hostage-taking script several times before,” said Howard Learner, executive director of the Chicago-based Environmental Law and Policy Center. A commentary in the Chicago Tribune accused Exelon of "posturing as a victim of the market."Backers of this view point to independent studies that have found that several nuclear plants that have asked for subsidies in the past, such those as in New Jerseyand Connecticut, are in fact profitable despite their owners' claims to the contrary. But there is little denying that the U.S. nuclear fleet, the oldest in the world among large countries, is pulling in far less money than it once did. Inundated with cheap natural gas from the “fracking” boom over the last decade, electricity prices have fallen from over $60 per megawatt hour a little more than 10 years ago to below $25 per megawatt hour now, slashing the revenue nuclear plants receive.
Revival of renewables sought in debate over nuclear bailout | The Blade — EDP Renewables North America, the world’s fourth-largest wind developer, invested more than $700 million into projects in Paulding and Hardin counties when Ohio first rolled out the red carpet. But more recent signals from the state — including last year's passage of the $1 billion bailout of two nuclear plants — have convinced the company to look elsewhere for its future investments. “HB 6 created a false dichotomy — that Ohio must sacrifice a clean-energy future at the expense of its energy past,” Erin Bowser, EDP's director of project management, on Wednesday told a House of Representatives select committee now considering repealing House Bill 6. “But rather than pit technologies against each other, we encourage the state to leverage the strengths of each and maximize the contributions that can come from various energy sectors,” she said. Most of the effects of the law at the heart of a $60 million Statehouse bribery scandal are set to take effect Jan. 1. The law generally creates or expands consumer-fueled subsidies for legacy nuclear and coal-fired power plants in Ohio and offsets those costs by rolling back and eliminating existing surcharges designed to create markets for renewable sources like wind and solar and reduce energy consumption overall. House Bill 6 — and stricter property-line setback requirements separately enacted several years ago — have rolled up that red carpet first extended in 2008, Ms. Bowser said.
Greater Cleveland Partnership calls for repeal of Ohio nuclear bailout law - cleveland.com - The Greater Cleveland Partnership is calling on Ohio lawmakers to repeal and possibly replace House Bill 6, the $1.3 billion nuclear plant bailout law that federal authorities say was the product of a massive corruption scheme.“We recommend a repeal and replace stance on HB 6 to remove the alleged stain of corruption on the law and to enable the restoration of the energy efficiency programs supported by our members,” said Joe Roman, President and CEO of the GCP. “Our membership continues to encourage policies that provide incentives for businesses to leverage energy programming to foster growth. We recognize a level of flexibility may be needed to meet those goals, reverse HB 6, and balance Ohio’s energy environment. Extending the use and access to nuclear power may be appropriate, but policy must harness additional solutions that exist and look toward emerging sources.”The statement was approved by the business group’s board of directors “and serves as a strong continuation of members' long-standing energy policy principles,” the GCP statement said.Ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four of his allies were arrested in July and charged with using $60 million in bribe money from FirstEnergy Corp. and affiliates to secure passage of House Bill 6 and make sure it wasn’t overturned through a referendum.A select committee of lawmakers is considering whether to repeal and replace the law. The committee has held hearings but hasn’t yet recommended specific actions.The nuclear bailout is funded by new monthly surcharges ranging from 85 cents for residential customers to as much as $2,400 for large industrial plants. In addition to the nuclear plant bailout, House Bill 6 provides subsidies to specific coal and solar plants around the state, dismantles the state’s green-energy standards for utilities, and allows FirstEnergy Corp. and other utilities to lock in a guaranteed level of ratepayer revenue for years to come.
Energy Harbor, FirstEnergy officials should testify before Ohio lawmakers about nuclear plants' profitability, AG Dave Yost says - —Attorney General Dave Yost is urging state lawmakers to have Energy Harbor and FirstEnergy Corp. representatives testify before legislative committees and disclose whether two nuclear power plants set to receive a $1.3 billion ratepayer bailout actually need the money.In a letter to state lawmakers serving on Ohio House and Senate committees studying what, if anything, to do about the scandal-ridden bailout law, House Bill 6, Yost stated the corporations “owe it to the legislature and the public to appear before the committees and provide a detailed financial accounting of their operations.”“Knowing what we know now, these corporations have lost any benefit of the doubt,” Yost wrote in the letter, sent last Friday.Yost’s letter comes as Energy Harbor is again refusing to publicly disclose financial data showing whether its Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants along Lake Erie are profitable or not.In addition, state Rep. Jim Hoops, who chairs a special House committee examining whether to repeal or alter HB6, told Gongwer News Service last week he’s not sure whether the companies can testify, given lawsuits filed by Yost and others.Yost, a Columbus Republican, wrote in his letter that there is nothing in his lawsuit “preventing or even hindering company representatives from appearing in public before your committees to answer questions – particularly questions about whether they are, in fact, profitable.”Yost added that Ohioans would “welcome” company officials answering questions in a public session “in the light of day – and well into the night.”“It would, without question, aid in producing a fair, well-informed energy bill from your committees,” the AG stated in the letter, dated last Friday.State lawmakers are now considering whether to repeal or revise HB6 since ex-Speaker Larry Householder and four allies were indicted in July on charges that they secured the passage of the law through a bribery scheme fueled by $60 million in FirstEnergy money.Yost s tated in the letter that “no Fifth Amendment issues are implicated by either FirstEnergy or Energy Harbor providing testimony to your committees,” as his lawsuit is a civil action, not a criminal suit. “Of course,” he added, “company officers may invoke the protections of the Fifth Amendment if they fear their answers may incriminate them.”
New investigations will shed light on the money behind House Bill 6 - For all of the investigations swirling around the 2019 enactment of House Bill 6 by the Ohio General Assembly, a lack of official scrutiny for the legislation’s primary beneficiary has been confounding. Now, it appears at least two government agencies are taking a look at Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp., which, with its affiliates, is believed to have been the major source of $61 million in dark money contributions that federal investigators allege were made to secure the $1.3 billion utility company bailout engineered in HB 6. Two nuclear power plants whose future is tied to the legislation were owned by a FirstEnergy subsidiary, FirstEnergy Solutions, which is now called Energy Harbor. The Davis-Besse nuclear power plant in Ottawa County and the Perry plant in Lake County are to receive subsidies beginning next year, courtesy of electric utility customers throughout Ohio who will be required to pay new fees under HB 6. As currently on the books, most ratepayers will be dinged 85 cents a month through 2027 to help support the nuclear plants and will continue to pay up to $1.50 a month through 2030 to prop up two coal-fired power plants — one of them in Indiana — that are owned by a group of electric companies including AEP in Columbus. There has been a broad clamor for repeal of the tainted legislation but so far no serious indication that state lawmakers will deliver the do-over that polls suggest most Ohioans want. HB 6 had plenty of detractors, including this editorial board, while it was being debated and ultimately passed by state lawmakers. And following the bill’s enactment, a campaign remarkable for its intensity and dirty tricks withstood a vigorous effort to beat back the law through a proposed referendum which ultimately failed to win a slot on the November 2019 ballot. The entire affair was malodorous from the beginning. FirstEnergy and company officials have not been charged in relation to HB 6 activities. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio said last week it has asked FirstEnergy and its subsidiaries to demonstrate by Sept. 30 that their political and charitable spending in support of the legislation was not funded by Ohio ratepayers. Electric utility ratepayers across the state deserve answers regarding the money trail behind HB 6.
Committee adjourns on eve of deadline to repeal bailout law (AP) — On the eve of a deadline, the Ohio House committee set up to determine the fate of the law now tainted by a $60 million federal bribery investigation adjourned for the coming weeks with no immediate plans for repeal in place. Lawmakers left Wednesday’s hearing of the House Select Committee on Energy Policy and Oversight with no projected timeline of repealing or replacing the bailout legislation that passed last year in a process federal prosecutors called the ‘largest bribery, money-laundering scheme’ in state history. Starting Jan. 1, the law will add a fee to every electricity bill in the state, and direct over $150 million a year, through 2026, to two nuclear plants near Cleveland and Toledo. House lawmakers had until Thursday to repeal the law in order to avoid the fees that will begin to be charged to 90% of the state’s electric consumers starting in the new year. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost filed a lawsuit last week in an effort to block the two nuclear plants from collecting the fees on the electricity bill if the Legislature does not act in time. The committee has been the scene of heightened tensions between the state’s two political parties since the chamber’s former House speaker and four of his associates were accused of shepherding energy company money for personal and political use as part of an effort to pass the legislation, then kill any attempt to repeal it at the polls. All five men have pleaded not guilty to the charges. Rep. David Leland, the ranking Democrat on the House committee, has been pushing for action before the Thursday deadline for weeks. “House Republicans are going to let October 1st go by without doing anything to stop this ratepayer rip-off,” Leland said in a statement this week. “That means, in the middle of a global pandemic and an unemployment crisis, House Republicans are going to make hardworking Ohioans pay more on their utility bills.”
FirstEnergy could reap $355M from scandal-plagued law -- Thursday, October 1, 2020 -- A seemingly innocuous provision in H.B. 6, an Ohio energy law dogged by claims of bribery, could bring hundreds of millions of dollars to one of the state's largest utility companies. Is it a "smoking gun"?
3yr investigation shows Ohio regulators ignore public oil & gas pollution complaints, work closely with polluters — A three-year investigation released today by Earthworks and endorsed by 15 regional groups in Ohio and Pennsylvania — Loud and Clear: what public regulation complaints reveal about Ohio’s oversight of oil and gas pollution and whom it serves — shows that the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA) and Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) failed to act on 38% of public complaints filed regarding oil and gas air pollution. The investigation also shows the public complaint system is effectively impossible for the public to use.From 2018-2020, Earthworks’ certified thermographers recorded optical gas imaging video of otherwise invisible air pollution — methane and toxic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene — from oil and gas production in Ohio. Earthworks staff used that evidence to file regulatory complaints with the OEPA and ODNR. Regulators responded to only 70% of our complaints (22 of 31), took no action on another 38%, and have yet to respond on 29% (9 of 31).Loud and Clear found that Ohio has no requirements for inspectors and other staff to respond to complainants, resulting in complaint replies that came — after repeated follow up — only after weeks, months, or in 9 cases, never. In contrast, OEPA provides oil and gas operators with extensive information about how inspections are conducted and how to prepare for one.In August, the Trump Administration’s Environmental Protection Agency gutted federal safeguards governing oil and gas production’s methane pollution and associated VOCs, meaning little regulatory protection exists for Ohioans from this type of pollution. At the same time, initial steps by OEPA in 2018 to regulate the industry’s pollution have stalled. “Who do Ohio regulators serve? For Ohioans harmed by oil and gas pollution, it’s a full time job just to get an answer from the agency whose mission it is to protect them. For oil and gas operators, regulators take pains to make government oversight as easy as possible. It’s becoming clear the only way to reliably protect Ohioans air, water, health and climate from oil and gas pollution is to stop permitting oil and gas production altogether.” — Earthworks OH/PA Field Advocate, certified optical gas imaging thermographer, and report co-author Leann Leiter “In 2018, a 20-day leak of methane resulting from an explosion of an XTO well pad in the neighboring county of Belmont, Ohio was measurable from space. The Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument detected methane emissions of over 120 metric tons per hour, one of the largest methane leaks ever recorded in the USA. The failure of the Ohio EPA and ODNR to really regulate the oil and gas industry leaves Ohio’s residents at risk from toxic air emissions.” –– Dr. Randi Pokladnik, Harrison County (3rd most fracked county in Ohio) resident
Pennsylvania lawmakers, industry officials optimistic about new natural gas tax credit legislation – On the heels of its recent passage, a cross-section of Pennsylvania legislators and private industry representatives gathered recently to discuss how a new law could pump new revenue into the state’s economy and dually create new jobs. The state Senate and House Majority Policy committees held a joint hearing and discussed Act 66, which provides tax credits to up to four businesses manufacturing dry natural gas products. Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf signed the bipartisan effort into law in July after vetoing a version of it in March. This spring, Wolf cited multiple reasons for his initial decision, including concerns with the financial stimulus provisions and job creation specifics. Wolf reversed course this summer after striking an agreement with state Republican lawmakers in both branches on what had been House Bill 732. Revisions expanded financial relief, particularly as COVID-19 upended the economy. “It was passed after a long, hard effort,” state Sen. David Argall, R-Mahanoy City, said at the hearing. “It was months of hard work. The end result is a product that is going to provide a lot of reinvestment into communities.” A number of lawmakers sitting on the committee expressed optimism in the long-term impact Act 66 could have on the state’s economy with new, modern efforts to maximize one of Pennsylvania’s natural resources. “The opportunity this legislation has is truly a transformative game-changer,” state Rep. Aaron Kaufer, R-Luzerne, said as he referenced the projected 4,400 jobs that could arise from Act 66’s provisions. While Act 66 has been a bipartisan effort, concerns over the state’s use of a traditional power source in lieu of solar have been raised throughout the legislative process. But from his vantage point, state Sen. John Gordner, R-Bloomsburg, said the use of natural gas does not have to be an “either or” proposition as environmental protective measures are factored into the equation. “You can choose both,” Gordner said. “This is a good example of it.”
No natural gas-driven boom here - When statistics fly in the face of what we see around us, we usually don’t reject the statistics. We just assume we see only a tiny part of a bigger picture and that, in the bigger picture, the statistics are probably true even if they don’t jive with our reality. So when people in Greene County, which has seen a huge surge of natural gas production but almost no growth in jobs, hear U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette claim the oil and gas industry is employing 300,000 people in Pennsylvania, they probably assume all that job growth is happening in other big gas-producing counties like Susquehanna and Bradford in Northeast Pennsylvania.Meanwhile, when folks in Susquehanna and Bradford, who have also seen huge growth in gas production and little in jobs, hear Brouillette’s claims, they assume he’s referring to Greene County and Southwest Pennsylvania.The problem is that the natural gas-driven economic revival Brouillette is talking about isn’t happening anywhere in the region and most certainly not in the counties mentioned above that bear most of the costs of fracking. That’s even more true in Ohio, where seven counties that produce over 90% of that state’s natural gas havelost over 7,000 jobs since the beginning of the fracking boom in 2007. That’s as of the end of 2019, before the covid-19 crisis made the losses even greater. Our eyes really are more reliable than Brouillette. The vacant retail spaces in Waynesburg, Wheeling, Steubenville and Bellaire tell the truth. The natural gas boom has manifestly failed to deliver jobs and prosperity. But rather than look at the reality of our communities or check actual employment figures, which are readily available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Brouillette quotes from disproven and debunked industry-funded economic impact studies to including most recently one from the petrochemical industry, which he says is poised to generate another 100,000 jobs in the region … except it’s not.
What The Purchase Of Marcellus Shale Assets Means To EQT Corporation - On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, it was reported that natural gas-focused EQT Corporation has offered to pay $750 million to acquire Chevron's natural gas acreage. This would represent a continuation of the company's expansion into this very resource-rich region. EQT is already the largest producer of natural gas in the United States and this acquisition would help it to maintain this position. Natural gas itself is an excellent place to be as the demand for it continues to grow both domestically and abroad so this will likely improve EQT's overall appeal. Chevron announced last year that it was considering selling off its interests in about 800,000 acres in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays in Pennsylvania and the surrounding states as well as its 31% stake in Laurel Mountain Midstream. Laurel Mountain Midstream is largely confined to Pennsylvania as it operates various gathering and intrastate pipelines throughout the Marcellus basin. EQT offered to pay $750 million for all of this. Unfortunately, this is substantially less than what Chevron originally paid to acquire these properties, but Chevron already took an $8.13 billion write-down last year to account for this, so hopefully it will not need to take another one following the sale. As mentioned in the introduction, the Marcellus shale is one of the most natural gas-rich regions in the United States. The formation largely covers the Allegheny Plateau in Southern New York, Western Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, Western Maryland, and most of West Virginia and is estimated to contain approximately 144.145 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered technically recovered natural gas: This is sufficient to make the Marcellus the richest individual basin in the United States in terms of natural gas. As might be expected, energy producers have been moving to take advantage of these enormous resources. In 2019, for example, the state of Pennsylvania alone produced approximately 6.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas: As might be expected from the largest natural gas producer in the country, EQT has a very significant position in the basin. The company currently has 630,000 acres in the Marcellus and another 60,000 acres in the neighboring Utica basin for a total of 690,000: This acquisition would therefore more than double the company's position in the region. Unfortunately though, it is not specified where exactly the Chevron acreage is located. As some parts of the basin are richer than others, we cannot be completely certain how large of an impact the acquisition would have on the company's reserves. We can be certain though that it would have a very positive effect on EQT's reserves as well as provide the company with more drilling locations to grow its production.
Developers of controversial LNG port seek special order from federal agency - A controversial plan to export liquified natural gas out of a South Jersey port could move forward as the developers attempt to get a special order to get the project approved. Delaware River Partners LLC, the company behind the Gibbstown Logistics Center in Gloucester County, has petitioned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for a declaratory order that would make LNG operations at the site not subject to the approval of the federal agency. Such an order would remove one regulatory hurdle for a plan to export of LNG from Gibbstown to destinations in Europe and the Caribbean. That plan, being pushed by New Fortress Energy, would see fracked natural gas liquified in Pennsylvania, then shipped to Gibbstown in trucks and trains. Critics worry such a plan poses a danger to public safety and threatens environmental health by furthering the use of fracking and fossil fuels. In the petition, Delaware River Partners argues FERC has no jurisdiction over LNG exports at the port because it is not directly connected to a natural gas pipeline and no gas will be liquified at the site. The Delaware Riverkeeper Network, an environmental organization that opposes the LNG plan, has filed to intervene against the developer’s petition. The group said in its filing that FERC must be allowed to keep its authority over the LNG proposal to ensure the environmental health of the river and surrounding area are protected.
Downstate gas plants make a hydrogen pitch in bid to stay afloat — Two downstate fossil fuel plants facing tougher emissions limits and eventual extinction are making a longshot promise that they could someday burn hydrogen produced from sun and wind energy. But clean energy groups say the pitch is a mirage — a last-ditch effort by the plants to avoid closure by suggesting they can make the switch from burning fossil fuels to a technology that is, so far, not available for widespread use and would present enormous costs to implement. “It’s so unrealistic that it’s almost laughable,” said Carlos Garcia, with the NYC Environmental Justice Alliance. Last year, New York enacted the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act — a sweeping emissions reduction and renewable energy measure that created a legal mandate for cutting greenhouse gases. It requires an 85 percent reduction from 1990 levels over the next three decades and a carbon-free electric system by 2040. That has threatened the future of traditional fossil-fuel generators that will have to find clean burning fuels or eventually shut down. Developers at Danskammer in the Hudson Valley and NRG’s Astoria in Queens plant are trying to gain state approval for low-emission, gas-fired plants to replace older facilities on their existing sites. They argue the plants will displace dirtier facilities in New York City and the Lower Hudson Valley in the interim because they would be called on to provide power during times of peak demand, before older dirtier plants. And they are pitching their ability to ultimately run on hydrogen made from excess renewable electricity, arguing such a move would help the state achieve its goal of carbon-free electricity by 2040.
Second 'Unplanned' Gas Release At Weymouth Compressor This Month -For the second time this month, something triggered the Weymouth Natural Gas Compressor Station's emergency shutdown system and caused an "unplanned release" of at least 10,000 standard cubic feet (scf) of natural gas into the nearby area.The venting happened around 10:30 a.m. Wednesday and occurred in a "controlled manner," according to the company that operates the compressor, Enbridge. "We are gathering additional information to determine what caused the Emergency Shutdown system to activate, though we have found no issues which would indicate there was a safety concern," Enbridge spokesman Max Bergeron said in an email.In a letter to the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), the company said it would "follow up with more information in 3 business days, including an estimate of the actual volume of gas released." It is legally required to notify MassDEP and the towns around the compressor about any unplanned gas releases that exceed 10,000 scf. But while Enbridge says it's "proceeding with safety as our priority," opponents of the project are furious about the lack of details and terrified about what a second shutdown before the facility even goes into operation portends for the future.Less than three weeks ago, a gasket failure at the facilitycaused a shutdown that forced operators to vent the entire contents of the station — about 265,000 scf of gas, which includes about 35 pounds of volatile organic compounds. It remains unclear how much of that gas was vented through a tall stack and how much was released at ground level, a distinction opponents of the project say is important because gas at ground level is more likely to ignite and explode."We still don’t know how much they released at ground level from the first accident, and now we have a second accident?" said Alice Arena of the Fore River Residents Against The Compressor (FRRACS). Enbridge did not respond to a question asking whether this second shutdown and subsequent release will affect the company's plan to put the compressor into service on Thursday.
Enbridge Agrees To Pause Weymouth Compressor Station Startup - The energy company Enbridge will pause its planned start of operations at its natural gas compressor station in Weymouth after the facility required twoemergency shutdowns in the past three weeks, imposing a delay that surprised its critics. A spokesperson for Enbridge, which built the facility as part of its Atlantic Bridge pipeline, said Thursday that the station will not yet be placed into service despite receiving final federal approval one week ago. On Wednesday, the station's emergency shutdown system automatically triggered, venting an unspecified amount of natural gas into the air near a densely populated community. "Following the activation of the Emergency Shutdown (ESD) System at the Weymouth Compressor Station on September 30, 2020, we have decided to temporarily pause the commencement of operations of the station to ensure we can complete a thorough review and be certain the facility is fully ready for service before proceeding," spokesperson Max Bergeron wrote in an email. "Safety will always be our top priority." Bergeron declined to say how much gas was vented or what caused the automatic shutdown, saying the company is "gathering additional information," but Enbridge is legally required to notify authorities of any unplanned release surpassing 10,000 cubic feet.It was the second incident at the station this month, following a gasket failure on Sept. 11 that prompted crews to deploy the emergency shutdown system and release up to 265,000 cubic feet of natural gas.Less than two weeks after that shutdown, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Enbridge approval to begin service at the station by Oct. 1.The compressor is designed to play a key role in the company's larger pipeline, helping pump gas northward to utility companies in Maine and Canada. The project received all of its state and federal permits, despite years of intense opposition from local leaders and community groups who warn that it poses environmental, safety and health threats to the area.
U.S. Energy Secretary: New England needs natural gas for energy choice, cost reduction (Guest viewpoint) - By Dan Brouillette - Boston and the surrounding area were the scene of the most memorable moments in the early years of the American Revolution. The city was a crucible for the rising American spirit of independence, from which the revolution against overbearing British taxes and colonial oppression was born. Ultimately, after years of struggle, America achieved independence. Now, America has also achieved energy independence, but few in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and the entire New England region would recognize it, especially considering that in 2018 a tanker carrying Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) docked in Boston Harbor, providing desperately needed fuel to power and heat homes during a winter cold snap.This development seemed strange to many, especially since the United States is the world’s leading producer of natural gas. The Appalachian Region, just several hours drive southwest, is home to such abundant natural gas reserves that if it were a country, it would be the world’s third largest producer of the fuel. How did it come to this? How is it that a city nicknamed “the birthplace of the American Revolution” needed Russian fuel to meet its winter power needs? How is it that as countries in Eastern Europe are desperate to reduce their reliance on Russian gas and the geopolitical muscle that often comes with it, the U.S. was importing it? The answer is simple: Plans to build the critical energy infrastructure necessary to benefit from our Nation’s abundant natural resources have been routinely blocked or delayed, at least in some parts of the country, by radical environmentalists, activist judges, and opportunistic politicians. Decisions to stop or slow down new energy infrastructure, like portions of the Access Northeast Pipeline project, are cheered as a win for the environment and for energy consumers. But blocking these projects is a win for neither the environment nor consumers.
DEEP responds to oil spill in Brook in Danbury - The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection responded to an oil spill in Sympaug Brook in Danbury. DEEP officials said the spill resulted from a hose failure at a manufacturing facility owned by Stanley Engineered Fastening on Shelter Rock Lane. About 1,800 gallons of waste oil containing metals was assumed lost, and while some waste was recovered from a secondary containment, some released into the brook, DEEP said. The spill resulted in a milky-white color, according to DEEP.The manufacturing facility took responsibility for the clean-up and Moran Environmental Recovery and Full & O'Neill are assisting, DEEP officials said. DEEP said they will continue to assess the situation and issue updates as needed.
Connecticut oil spill halts recreational activities - Nearly 1,800 gallons of waste oil spilled into a brook that flows into Connecticut’s Still River this week. Waste oil containing metals spilled into Sympaug Brook in Danbury after a hose failed at a manufacturing facility owned by Stanley Engineered Fastening. Some oil was recovered in the cleanup but some was also released into the brook. State health officials recommend people refrain from fishing, bathing and other recreational activities until remediation is complete.
Mountain Valley Pipeline regains permit to cross streams, wetlands - A path across nearly 1,000 streams and wetlands was cleared Friday for the Mountain Valley Pipeline.The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reissued three permits for the natural gas pipeline being built in Virginia and West Virginia, nearly two years after they were invalidated by a federal appeals court.“Effective immediately, you may resume all activities being done in reliance upon the authorization” first given in January 2018, William Walker, chief of the Army Corps’ regulatory branch in Norfolk, wrote in a letter to Mountain Valley.With the long-awaited decision, the company moved one step closer to resuming construction of a massive project that has stirred deep controversy in Southwest Virginia since it was first proposed six years ago.Also on Friday, the U.S. Forest Service released its proposal for the 303-mile pipeline to pass through the Jefferson National Forest, an approval that was struck down in a separate ruling by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. A decision on that permit is not expected until the end of the year.
Mountain Valley Pipeline foes file challenge to reissued stream-crossing permits - Foes of the Mountain Valley Pipeline were back in court Monday, before idled construction workers could return to the long-delayed and deeply divisive project.In a petition filed with the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, the Sierra Club and seven other environmental groups challenged permits reissued last week to allow Mountain Valley to cross nearly 1,000 streams and wetlands along its 303-mile path.The joint venture of five energy companies has been barred from active construction of the natural gas pipeline for nearly a year. But after legal logjams began to clear, with two key sets of federal permits being restored, Mountain Valley asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last week to lift its stop-work order.Before that could happen, the environmental groups requested that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stay its new permits for waterbody crossings, pending another legal challenge. That came Monday, when senior attorney Derek Teaney with the nonprofit law firm Appalachian Mountain Advocates filed a petition on behalf of the Sierra Club, the Center for Biological Diversity, Wild Virginia, Appalachian Voices, the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, the West Virginia Rivers Coalition, the West Virginia Highlands Conservancy and the Indian Creek Watershed Association. At issue is Mountain Valley’s plan to cross streams and rivers by one of two ways: either by boring under them or using dams and pumping systems to temporarily divert water, dig trenches along dry beds, bury the 42-inch diameter pipe some 6 feet deep and then restore the current to its original flow.Mountain Valley says there is a public need for the 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day to be pumped at high pressure through the pipeline, which will run from northern West Virginia, through Southwest Virginia, and connect with an existing pipeline near the North Carolina line.But the project is two years behind schedule, in large part because of litigation from those who say it is polluting a scenic part of the country.“The Corps has gone ahead and authorized MVP to dig and blast through our streams despite its full knowledge that it has not met its legal obligations or done what’s necessary to protect some of our most valuable and sensitive species,” David Sligh, Wild Virginia’s conservation director, said in an email. “That’s deplorable.”
More Federal Permits Handed Down as MVP Presses FERC for Construction Restart - The Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP) told FERC late last week that it has received a series of key federal waterbody crossing permits, bolstering its case to restart construction on the 300-mile, 2 million Dth/d natural gas conduit. The Huntington, WV, Pittsburgh and Norfolk, VA, districts of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have all completed Nationwide Permit 12 reviews for the pipeline, MVP said in a letter filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Friday. The developer submitted the information to supplement its request filed last Tuesday to restart construction on the pipeline. As with other federal approvals for the embattled MVP project, the NWP 12 permitting came under scrutiny in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, which vacated a key permit in 2018. That decision sent the Army Corps back to the drawing board to reevaluate MVP’s authorization to cross hundreds of streams and wetlands. The NWP 12 approvals bring MVP closer to restarting construction on the Appalachia-to-Southeast transmission line.Work has been stalled since last fall, a result of setbacks concerning MVP’s Endangered Species Act approvals. Earlier this month, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service updated its review of protected species, removing another regulatory roadblack for the project. Meanwhile, the U.S. Forest Service has released a draft supplemental environmental impact statement concerning MVP’s proposed crossing through the Jefferson National Forest in Monroe County, WV, and Giles and Montgomery counties, VA. MVP told FERC last month that it expects to have all remaining permits in hand by the end of this year. The 42-inch diameter MVP is designed to transport Marcellus and Utica shale gas from West Virginia into Virginia, where it would interconnect with the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line’s Station 165 compressor in Pittsylvania County.
NextEra, other Mountain Valley Pipeline developers, race to resume construction amid new challenges Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) permits are slowly being reissued, bringing new confidence to the project and its developers. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reinstated verifications for stream crossings in three West Virginia districts on Friday, allowing construction to resume in one of the districts. While MVP is waiting to regain other federal permits, opponents of the development seek to undo the latest progress. Sierra Club and six other environmental groups filed suit on Monday with the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals over two of the Army Corps' Nationwide Permit 12 verifications for MVP. MVP developers claim the main section of the pipeline will be in service in early 2021. "Over the last several months we have been explaining to clients that we expected MVP was likely to complete construction based on the fact regulatory re-approvals were coming together," Christi Tezak, managing director of research at ClearView Energy Partners, said in an email. Gas pipelines are meeting a barrage of challenges from community stakeholders and environmental groups. Although developers pulled the plug on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) this summer, the same fate doesn't necessarily await MVP, power sector analysts say.ACP was more sensitive to state regulatory approval, while MVP is "supported by upstream producers," Tezak said. MVP is a joint venture of EQM Midstream Partners, NextEra Capital Holdings, Con Edison Transmission and gas transmission groups including WGL Midstream and RGC Midstream. The pipeline is intended to deliverup to 2 million dekatherms per day of firm transmission capacity from the Marcellus and Utica shale region to markets in the Mid- and South Atlantic. The developers did not reply to requests for comment on the path forward for the project or comparisons to other pipeline proposals. MVP developers maintain that the mainline project construction is 92% complete, a figure that opposing groups have questioned as an exaggeration. According to ClearView's Tezak, the MVP project continued construction for nearly a year longer than the ACP, before beginning to lose permits. "It looks like the pipeline's only about halfway complete to restoration," said Joan Walker, senior campaign representative for Sierra Club's Beyond Dirty Fuels Campaign. "The sections that are yet to be trenched and laid are the steepest, most difficult, most challenging terrain, so it's literally an uphill battle for developers," she said. That means if the project received all the necessary permits to restart construction and meet its early 2021 target, the work would have to take place during the winter, which could further complicate matters for developers, according to Walker. MVP developers, aware of the challenges of winter construction, asked FERC to lift its 2018 stop-work order, so that construction efforts will be maximized ahead of winter.
Virginia regulators accused of slow-walking new turbidity standard - As work on Mountain Valley Pipeline remains stalled, state officials are also moving at a sluggish pace to develop a standard that would help Virginia regulate muddied waters like those that have dogged the project. “My recollection is that this was first requested by the board about 18 months ago,” State Water Control Board member Paula Jasinski said to Department of Environmental Quality officials at a meeting Sept. 24. “Does it take that long?” DEQ leaders said yes. While acknowledging a five- to six-month delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic, top officials emphasized the complexity of developing such a standard, known as numeric turbidity criteria, in a state with wide geographic and ecological diversity. But other environmental stakeholders say the department is slow-walking the process, writing its own regulations from the ground up instead of leaning on standards already adopted in many other states. “If we were starting from scratch here, that would be one thing,” said David Sligh, a former Virginia environmental regulator and conservation director of Wild Virginia, which along with 55 other state organizations is pushing for a slate of regulatory reforms by the State Water Control Board, including accelerated development of the numeric turbidity standards. But, he continued, there’s already “decades of knowledge” on the subject. “As they pointed out, 30 states have already done it,” he told the Mercury. “We may question whether what those states did is the best way to do it, but EPA approved every one of those states’ methods. So we can’t say it hasn’t been looked at or thought about.” Narrative vs. numeric At its most basic level, turbidity can be thought of as the degree to which waters are clouded or muddied. Technically, it’s “a measure of water clarity and the degree to which the water loses its transparency,” according to a definition provided by DEQ at a July turbidity work group. In regulating turbidity, Virginia has long relied on a set of “narrative criteria” laid out in the state code that among other things control the deposition of “substances that produce color, tastes, turbidity, odors, or settle to form sludge deposits.” But those criteria “are too subjective and as such are pretty much unenforceable,” said Bob Burnley, a former DEQ director and an advocate for the Virginia chapter of Trout Unlimited who is a signatory of the reform platform being spearheaded by Wild Virginia.
Litigation that targets pipelines seen adding uncertainty to capital return timelines — Litigation around the permitting of long-haul US oil and gas projects has made timing of returns for large capital investments uncertain, leading some midstream companies to avoid such projects, industry officials said Tuesday. Their comments came during a Sept. 29 panel discussion on legal challenges affecting major oil and gas pipeline projects at the Shale Insight conference, organized by the Marcellus Shale Coalition. "I can tell you from our perspective in a lot of instances, we try to stay out of the regulatory arena," said Christopher Rimkus, assistant general counsel of MPLX, while noting the company does have an equity interest in the Dakota Access Pipeline. "It's just something that from a capital perspective it's hard to consider putting a billion dollars up when you don't have a sense of when your project will actually be done, when you can start getting a return on that investment." Ashley O'Neil, senior counsel at Williams, said she agreed about challenges facing the sector. "The uncertainty just makes the planning and the capital process of these types of projects much, much more difficult," she said. Overall, Rimkus said, litigation from nongovernmental organizations has less of a day-to-day impact on the gathering-and-processing end of the business. But litigation targeting distribution lines or transmission pipelines affects the ability for producers to market from large fields liked the Marcellus and Utica shales to end-use customers, he said. "And it's incredibly disruptive. In our case, we've deployed over $10 billion of capital up here," he said. If the ability to move product up and down the eastern seaboard is degraded, then "that initial investment is degraded, and you'll see an economic slowdown, and a slowdown in construction and drilling," he added. Appeals court rulings Recent appeals court rulings have resulted in some significant setbacks for major oil and gas projects in the eastern US. In one case with potential impacts for other interstate projects, the 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals found PennEast Pipeline could not condemn lands in which New Jersey held an interest in federal court. Separately, a US Army Corps of Engineers' general permit for stream crossings often used by oil and gas pipelines also was thrown into question earlier this year by a Montana federal district court and remains the subject of appeals court litigation. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline saw multiple permits sent back to agencies by the 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals before Dominion Energy canceled the project. Williams tangled with New York state in various venues before shelving the Constitution Pipeline project amid altered market conditions. Regulatory efforts Lawyers on the panel acknowledged several Trump administration initiatives aimed at ensuring greater regulatory consistency, such as the June US Environmental Protection Agency regulation aimed at setting limits on the timing and scope of state water quality certifications under the Clean Water Act. Still, Lisa Bruderly, shareholder at Babst Calland, pointed out that litigation has since been brought by the attorneys general of 21 states, including New York, who argued the CWA regulation unlawfully curtailed the state's authority to fully review the projects. (State of California, et al., v. Andrew Wheeler, 3:20-cv-04869).
COVID-19 Bombshell: As Thousands of Out-of-State Mountain Valley Pipeline Workers Prepare to Descend on SW Virginia, Dept. of Health Declines to Review Company’s COVID Mitigation Plan - The Commissioner of the Virginia Department of Health rejected the idea of conducting a thorough review of Mountain Valley Pipeline’s plan to bring thousands of out of state workers to a concentrated area of Southwest Virginia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, he directed staff to limit their efforts to providing “public health guidance” to MVP.A lobbyist for Mountain Valley Pipeline expressed reservations about submitting its COVID-19 response plan because it might be made public under the Freedom of Information Act. He also dismissed concerns raised by Virginia legislators about MVP’s plan and apparently misled the Virginia Department of Health regarding the status of pending legislation that could stop construction.And the lobbyist, using ties he had to the Governor’s office, sought VDH approval of MVP’s plan sight unseen in a Zoom meeting that included a company lawyer, VDH leadership and staff and a top official in the office of Virginia Governor Ralph Northam. These are some of the troubling revelations contained in internal emails released by VDH in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. They are published here,here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here exclusively for the first time. (References below are to these documents and include page numbers.) The Mountain Valley Pipeline is a $6.2 billion corporate boondoggle that would bring fracked methane gas from West Virginia to Virginia along a 300-mile route that includes mountainous terrain and the crossing of more than 1,000 rivers, streams and wetlands. It is intended to connect to an extension called MVP Southgate for which North Carolina has refused to issue a permit. The most expensive pipeline per mile ever conceived, MVP has been plagued by trouble since it was first proposed in 2014. Billions of dollars over budget and more than two years behind its original in service date, MVP was stopped from doing further construction in 2019 after multiple permits were lost as a result of legal challenges. Its certificate from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is set to expire in mid-October. MVP has asked for a two-year extension and more than 43,000 people in Virginia and West Virginia have filed comments with FERC urging that the renewal be denied. see also: COVID-19 Bombshell, Part 2: Mountain Valley Pipeline Refuses to Release Its COVID-19 Preparedness Plan to Virginia Department of Health | Blue Virginia
Natural gas growth has driven emissions reductions but made it a target for environmentalists - Declining coal power and the switch to increasing amounts of natural gas drove down U.S. energy-related emissions over the past decade, to dip about 1.3% on average each year since 2007, according to the latest analysisfrom the Energy Information Administration. But the EIA also finds natural gas producing an increasing share of U.S. energy emissions, underscoring the pressure from environmentalists and Democrats that is coming to bear on the fuel as they attempt to put the U.S. on a path to dramatically cut emissions by mid-century. Energy-related emissions from coal fell more than 50% from 2007 to 2019, the EIA said in a report released Wednesday. And the pace of decline is only accelerating. In 2019 alone, carbon emissions from coal power fell 15%, compared to 2018. That’s despite efforts from the Trump administration to prop up the coal sector, which have been largely unsuccessful. Just this week, Texas-based Vistra Energy announced it would shutter its entire Midwest coal fleet by 2027, which the company said has become uneconomic, marking one of the largest coal power retirement announcements in the U.S. The EIA says a significant portion of electricity sector emissions cuts between 2005 and 2019 came from fuel switching — from coal power to either natural gas or renewable energy. Nearly two-thirds of those emissions reductions, though, came specifically from switching coal to natural gas power, giving the industry new data points to use as they argue their fuel is the major reason the U.S. has been able to cut emissions over the last decade. But emissions from natural gas are increasing: More consumption means greater emissions, the EIA notes, finding U.S. natural gas emissions have risen 35% from 2007 to 2019. In 2019 alone, natural gas emissions in the electric power sector rose 6.9%, the report says. Those types of increases are making the natural gas industry the next target of environmentalists and Democrats and will ultimately pose hurdles for the many utilities that are setting goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Nat Gas Prices Set To Soar As First Cold Blast To Strike Eastern US Next Week - A significant cooldown has arrived, with the jet stream from Canada plunging this weekend, which will allow the eastern United States to experience its first taste of fall for much of next week. The ten-day outlook in terms of the thermal aspect shows a cold airmass will encompass all U.S. Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast, where temperatures could hover 8 to 15 degrees below normal through the first week of October. E.C. Operational Forecast (with gray 32 degrees Fahrenheit line) shows the blast of cold air pouring in from Canada this weekend and will cover much of the eastern U.S. through Oct. 6. As for frost risks over the next ten days, Reuters' commodity desk said: "Although the greatest cool anomalies should be observed in Missouri and surrounding states, the risk for occasional and short-lasting overnight frost risks are on the rise across the upper Midwest. As for now, confidence in frost appearance is rather low, but the situation should be monitored and updated over the next week." The National Weather Service announced a moderate to high risk for cooler temperatures from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic between Oct. 1 and 7. According to The Washington Post, "the surge of cold set to enter the eastern U.S. just one week after scores of locations in interior New England and western New York set record lows in the 20s and 30s. The chill even reached the Mid-Atlantic, where Washington observed lows in the 40s on four straight days in September for the first time since 1950." A chilly start to October will result in energy usage demand to increase. Heating degree day (HDD), the measure designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building, is set to rise in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast in the coming days. Oilprice.com says the "coming winter season and the end of the hurricane season that has disrupted LNG operations and exports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, coupled with recovering gas demand for industrial activities in Asia and Europe, are likely to send natural gas prices to above $3 per million British thermal units." The latest "rollercoaster" in nat gas prices was "indicative of a demand/supply picture in a so-called 'shoulder season' when power demand for air conditioning begins to wane, but demand for heating is not there yet. So prices reacted to the immediate drivers—storage, feed supply for LNG, and storm-induced shut-ins," said the energy blog.
U.S. natgas futures fall about 2% on surplus, contract expiry | Reuters - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid nearly 2% in volatile trading on Monday, their last day as the contract for October delivery, on a continued supply surplus and as threat of storms in the Atlantic Ocean dissipated. The decline in futures prices came despite a projected increase in LNG exports. Front-month gas futures for October delivery fell 3.8 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.101 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The October contract rose as much as 1.7% and fell as much as 5.6% in Monday's session. "It is expiration jiggling," November futures, which will be the front-month beginning on Tuesday, were down 1.2 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $2.795 per mmBtu. "Although the long-standing supply surplus will likely be contracting significantly next month, we still see a possible season ending supply of almost 4.1 tcf should next month's temperatures remain mild," advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "... The Atlantic remains devoid of any threatening tropical storm development in possibly forcing the complex to erase some additional storm premium." Data provider Refinitiv projected supply would rise from 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 91.2 bcfd this week, before contracting to 91.1 bcfd again in the next week. LNG exports were forecast to reach 6.2 bcfd this week, according to Refinitiv data, as vessels returned to Gulf Coast terminals after Tropical Storm Beta dissipated.
U.S. natgas futures fall over 8% on lower demand, rising output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures for the most active month fell over 8% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a rise in output. For the front-month, however, the contract was up over 21% to a three-week high due to the roll of the less expensive October future into the much more expensive November. That is the biggest one-day percentage gain for the front-month since 2009 when a similar October to November contract roll caused it to jump 31%. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 23.4 cents, or 8.4%, from where the November contract traded on Monday to settle at $2.561 per million British thermal units, their highest since Sept. 4. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a one-week high of 86.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.9 bcfd this week to 84.7 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday because higher gas prices were expected to cause some power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.6 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations. Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana started taking in small amounts of gas over the past few days.
U.S. natgas futures ease as rising output offsets higher demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday as an increase in output in recent days offset raised forecasts for demand over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures fell 3.4 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $2.527 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That puts the contract down about 4% in September after rising by a 10-year monthly high of 46% in August. For the quarter, the contract gained about 44%, the most in a quarter in four years. The premium of futures for December over November NGX20-Z20, meanwhile, hit a record high of 61 cents per mmBtu on Wednesday. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to a two-week high of 87.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week. For the month, however, output was on track to decline for a second time in a row in September to a 23-month low of 86.7 bcfd as storms in the Gulf of Mexico, pipeline maintenance and low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.7 bcfd this week to 85.3 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That was higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.7 bcfd in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise by 76 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas in storage rose roughly in line with analysts' expectations and the five-year average last week, but the Henry Hub winter strip continues to slip as power demand fades entering the shoulder season. Storage inventories rose 76 Bcf to 3.756 Tcf for the week ended Sept. 25, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of Oct. 1. After the survey missed the mark widely in both directions over the past two weeks, this injection was only slightly less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 78 Bcf build. Responses to the survey proved wide though, ranging from injections of 61 Bcf to 102 Bcf. The injection measured less than the 109 Bcf build reported during the same week a year ago, as well as the five-year average gain of 78, according to EIA data. The injection was below the 109 Bcf build reported during the same week a year ago, as well as the five-year average increase of 78 Bcf, according to EIA data. The US supply-and-demand balance during the week ended Sept. 25 saw little net change week on week. Supply was down 1.1 Bcf/d week on week to average 89.4 Bcf/d, led by an 800 MMcf/d decline in onshore production, mainly stemming from reduced Northeast output, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Downstream, total demand fell by 1.4 Bcf/d to an average of about 80 Bcf/d for the week. A 1.8 Bcf/d drop in power burn demand and a 1.4 Bcf/d drop in LNG feedgas deliveries were partly counterbalanced by a combined 1.7 Bcf/d increase in residential-commercial and industrial demand. Storage volumes now stand 471 Bcf, or 14%, above the year-ago level of 3.285 Tcf and 405 Bcf, or 12%, more than the five-year average of 3.351 Tcf. The surplus versus last year has been reduced by more than 400 Bcf over the course of the injection season. The NYMEX Henry Hub November contract shed 6 cents to $2.47/MMBtu following the release of the weekly storage report. Declines extended through the winter strip, with December through March trading roughly 3 cents lower. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply-and-demand model currently forecasts a 66 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 2, which would lower the surplus to the five-year average by 20 Bcf as about six net injections remain before the flip to the winter withdrawal season. Total supplies this week are up 1.1 Bcf/d to average 90.5 Bcf/d, mainly from a nearly 1 Bcf/d rise in production that has been split among both onshore and offshore production wells. Downstream, total demand is up 1.7 Bcf/d on the week to an estimated 81.6 Bcf/d, led by a 1 Bcf/d recovery in LNG feedgas deliveries, and further bolstered by a 600 MMcf/d recovery in power plant deliveries.
November Natural Gas Prices Flat as Market Weighs EIA Data, Lower Production - November Nymex natural gas futures swung in a 15-cent range Thursday before ultimately finishing the day exactly where they started. After government data showed an on-target storage report, the prompt month went on to settle Thursday flat at $2.527. December, however, fell 5.5 cents to $3.062. storage sept. 25 The stability at the front of the Nymex curve came despite continued weakness in the cash market, where NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 21.5 cents to $1.310. After weeks of erratic price behavior, November futures settling the day unchanged may be a bit surprising to market observers. That could be because traders were still trying to digest the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. The EIA recorded a 76 Bcf injection into inventories for the week ending Sept. 25, which was within the range of estimates ahead of the report. The 76 Bcf build was considered by analysts to be rather tight from a supply/demand perspective. It compared with a 109 Bcf injection for the similar week last year and the five-year average build of 78 Bcf. However, traders’ struggle to determine where to send November prices from here may stem from the stark reality that inventories still are at risk of exceeding capacity before withdrawals begin. In particular, stocks continue to swell at salt facilities in the South Central region and are nearing capacity. “Nationally, we are on pace to have enough room, but need to alleviate the surplus especially in salts,” Bespoke said.South Central inventories rose by 21 Bcf, including a 9 Bcf injection into salt facilities and an 11 Bcf build in nonsalts, according to EIA. Salt capacity is reported to be around 400 Bcf, with four more weeks remaining in the traditional injection season. Builds often continue into November. Elsewhere across the Lower 48, the Midwest added 24 Bcf into storage, and the East added 21 Bcf, EIA said. Mountain inventories climbed 6 Bcf, and the Pacific rose 4 Bcf. Total working gas in storage as of Sept. 25 stood at 3,756 Bcf, 471 Bcf above year-ago levels and 405 Bcf above the five-year average, according to EIA. NatGasWeather said the EIA report provided “little drama” and was on par with expectations, but liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas deliveries were higher day/day and production was lower. This tightening of the balance may have provided some support to prices.
U.S. natgas futures fall after Trump's positive coronavirus test (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Friday, following the crude market lower after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and U.S. negotiators failed to agree on a new economic stimulus package. Traders noted that gas prices were also pressured by continued weakness in cash NG-W-HH-SNL prices, which have traded below futures since August, and forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. With all the bearish news, the market ignored a small decline in gas output and continued increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Front-month gas futures were down 8.9 cents, or 3.5%, at $2.438 per million British thermal units at 9:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT). For the week, the contract was still up about 14% after rising 4% last week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September. Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling so much that output from new wells was no longer able to offset declines from existing wells. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.3 bcfd this week to 85.6 bcfd next week and 85.7 bcfd in two weeks. That, however, was lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September. Traders expect LNG exports to keep rising as Cameron and Cove Point return over the next week or two and rising global gas prices prompt buyers to reverse some earlier planned cargo cancellations.
With ACP canceled, Nelson residents look to environmental recovery - About 2½ years ago, tree felling began at the entrance of Wintergreen to facilitate drilling underneath the mountains. Remnants of felled trees are consumed by overgrowth in a roughly 120-foot-wide swath that climbs up the mountainside, concealing the make-ready work the Atlantic Coast Pipeline performed to pave the way for the pipeline in Nelson County.But the pipeline never came. After years of construction, constant legal challenges, delays and inflating costs, ACP canceled the project in early July.Dominion and Duke Energy had teamed up on the proposed 605-mile pipeline that would have traversed parts of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, with 27 miles crossing through Nelson County where public opposition was fierce. Environmental preservation became one of many points of contention for pipeline opponents, and the county became the only locality ACP sued over the rights to the county’s floodplains.Jay Roberts, executive director of the Wintergreen Property Owners Association, said letting the forest recover would help property owners move forward, but he does not believe bulldozing over the path or removing the trees is the right approach moving forward for the land. Roberts said he thinks the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should allow ACP to work with individual landowners to see how best to restore land that was disturbed for construction. This is reflected in a filing on the FERC docket Aug. 3 in response to ACP’s request for a time extension on the project; the property owners association does not object to the request and wants ACP to have more time to fix land disturbed for the route.
Trump administration plan to allow drilling along the Atlantic coast has fallen apart - The Washington Post - The Trump administration’s plan to drill off the Atlantic Coast for the first time in more than half a century is on the brink of collapse because of a court development Thursday that blocked the first steps to offshore oil and gas exploration, as well as the president’s recent actions that undermine his own proposal.Opponents of the drilling declared victory on Thursday after the government acknowledged that permits to allow seismic blasting in the ocean — the first step toward locating oil deposits for drilling — will expire next month and not be renewed.Nine state attorneys general and several conservation groups filed a federal lawsuit early last year to block seismic blasting, arguing it could harm endangered whales and other marine animals. The court battle dragged out so slowly that, in the meantime, time ran out on the permits. Donna Wieting, director of the National Marine Fisheries Service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in a court declaration, released Tuesday, that her agency “has no authority to extend the terms of those [permits] upon their expiration. Further, NMFS has no basis for reissuing or renewing these [permits].” The five companies that were granted permits would have to restart the months-long process leading to approval or denial, Wieting said.Also on Thursday, U.S. District Judge Richard Gergel of South Carolina held a telephone conference with all parties of the lawsuit to determine how to move forward. The judge is expected to declare the case moot because the seismic mapping cannot occur without the permits, said Michael Jasny, who was on the call and is director of the Marine Mammal Protection Project at the Natural Resources Defense Council.The attorneys and conservationists are focused on protecting the North Atlantic right whale, which is “one step from extinction,” the International Union for Conservation of Nature determined in July. Only about 250 adults remain, including 100 breeding females after collisions with ships, entanglements in fishing nets and underwater noise pollution, according to an assessment by the group.“It’s most definitely a win. There’s no question,” Jasny said. “Given the broad bipartisan opposition that the threat of seismic blasting and drilling has stirred in communities up and down the coast, it should be the nail in the coffin for oil and gas exploration on the coast.”The American Petroleum Institute saw the issue differently. “In the long-run, the world is going to demand more energy, not less, and our industry’s priority is ensuring that demand is met by energy produced here in the United States,” said Andy Radford, a senior policy adviser for API, the largest oil and gas lobbying group in Washington.
Trump’s Offshore Oil Ban to Halt Coastal Wind Farms Too – Bloomberg -President Donald Trump’s decision to rule out energy development along the coasts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will bar not just offshore oil and gas drilling -- but coastal wind farms too.The broad reach of Trump’s recent orders, which was confirmed by the Interior Department agency that oversees offshore energy development, comes as renewable developers are spending hundreds of millions of dollars snapping up the rights to build wind farms along the U.S. East Coast.At issue are recent Trump memos ruling out new oil and gas leasing along Florida, Georgia and South and North Carolina from July 1, 2022 until June 30, 2032, issued after some Republicans pressed for a drilling ban and as the president courts voters concerned about the environment. On Friday, Trump said he would expand the offshore energy moratorium to include Virginia, though he has not yet issued a directive encompassing the territory.On the campaign trail, Trump highlighted his moves as a way to block offshore oil and gas drilling, even though the orders will affect future sale of renewable energy rights in U.S. coastal waters too. “The withdrawal includes all energy leasing, including conventional and renewable energy, beginning on July 1, 2022,” Bureau of Ocean Energy Management spokeswoman Tracey Moriarty said by email.
USD 215m in BP oil spill money to restore Louisiana marshes(AP) Louisiana will get nearly USD 215 million in BP oil spill money for two projects planned to restore more than 4,600 acres of marsh and other habitat in the New Orleans area, Gov. John Bel Edwards said. Work should begin next year on the projects, Edwards said in a news release Tuesday. The money is from BP''s USD 8.8 billion settlement for natural resources damage caused by the blowout that killed 11 men and spewed more than 100 million gallons (380 million liters) of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, leaving long-lasting effects. Both are part of larger restoration plans, the group overseeing Louisiana''s share of that settlement noted. Each project will set a record, said Chip Kline, president of Louisiana''s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. He said the Lake Borgne project near Shell Beach in St. Bernard Parish will create more than 2,800 acres (1,100 hectares) of marsh, making it the largest area ever bid by the agency. The Louisiana Trustee Implementation Group approved USD 114.7 million for the project. “This project will have immediate benefits to habitat for fish and birds by reinforcing the degrading southwestern shoreline of Lake Borgne and Lena Lagoon,” St. Bernard Parish President Guy McInnis said. “And we need all the natural marsh buffer we can build to lessen the damaging effects of tidal action and storm surge.” The USD 100.3 million Spanish Pass project, near Venice in Plaquemines Parish, will use an estimated 16 million cubic yards (12 million cubic meters) of dredged material to create about 132 acres (53 hectares) of ridge and 1,700 acres (688 hectares) of marsh. That will be the authority''s largest dredging volume so far, Kline said. “The Mississippi River created our parish and the many historic ridges of our landscape,” said Plaquemines Parish President Kirk Lepine. “These features protect against storm surge, reduce saltwater intrusion, provide key habitats and also help retain sediment. The marsh west of Venice has been in need of this level of attention for some time, and I know the people and businesses near Venice will appreciate this massive project and this tremendous investment.” The Oil Pollution Act settlement was part of a 2016 agreement totaling more than USD 20 billion. It was based partly on the judge''s estimate that the 87-day Deepwater Horizon spill spewed nearly 134 million gallons (507 million liters) of crude into the Gulf — enough to fill the U.S. Capitol rotunda 13 times.
Chevron streamlining and reducing production to compensate for less demand for products | MS Business Journal - Demand is down for products manufactured at Chevron’s largest refinery in the U.S., the Chevron Pascagoula Refinery. “Although I can’t address specific details about our Pascagoula operations, I can share that crude oil input at our U.S. refineries decreased 39 percent in the second quarter to 581,000 barrels per day from the year-ago period, as the company cut refinery production in response to the reduced market demand for our products,” said Alan Suddeth, corporate affairs manager for Chevron in Mississippi. “Chevron has taken action to better position the company to compete in any operating environment and address current market conditions. This includes reducing our operating costs and capital investments, driving efficiencies in our workflows and processes, and streamlining our organizational structures to reflect the efficiencies and to match projected activity levels.” Suddeth said the new organizational structures will, unfortunately, require approximately 10-15 percent fewer positions across their global operations. Impacts in each location, business segment and function will vary. “This is a difficult decision, and we do not make it lightly,” Suddeth said. “In recognition of these extraordinary times, we have enhanced the resources available to those leaving Chevron to provide a stronger safety net as they transition out of the company.”
Yet Another Shale Producer Files For Bankruptcy - Eagle Ford producer Lonestar Resources filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 this week, becoming the latest casualty in the string of bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch this year. Lonestar Resources filed for relief under Chapter 11 in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, as a growing number of U.S. oil and gas producers – from small players to giants – are saddled with debt they cannot repay with oil prices so low.This week, Oasis Petroleum Inc also filed for a voluntary Chapter 11 process aimed at restructuring that is expected to reduce its debt by US$1.8 billion. Oasis Petroleum has enough liquidity to maintain operations and expects to emerge from the restructuring process in November 2020, subject to Court approval, the company said.Dozens of shale producers have already filed for bankruptcy protection this year, with Chapter 11 filings accelerating after oil prices crashed in March and U.S. shale producers curtailed production in the following months.Notable bankruptcies included Permian producer Rosehill Resources, California Resources, and Denbury Resources. Shale giant Chesapeake Energy also filed for bankruptcy at the end of June. According to data from law firm Haynes and Boone as of August 31, a total of 13 producers filed for protection in July and August, which, combined with the rest of the filings this year, represents a 62-percent increase over this time last year.
Big Spring residents worried about their water following oil spill - A crude oil spill has residents north of Big Spring concerned about where the oil could end up. A Delek US company spokesperson says that an employee discovered the spill Sunday night. According to the spokesperson, actions were immediately taken to clean up the spill. Bobby Doe, the owner of the property where the spill happened, says he’s concerned that the groundwater on which they live will be contaminated. “The oil’s been sitting here for going on about twenty-something hours, so that does concern me and the residual effects later. You know as well as I do water is an essential thing for us to have,” said Doe. Rory Worthan, another resident in the area, says he’s also concerned for many residents who benefit from the aquifer. Environmental groups are already involved and are working to help with the cleanup.
Cleanup of abandoned oil and gas wells could cost Texans $117 billion - Plugging and cleaning up the open oil and gas wells in Texas could cost companies and taxpayers as much as $117 billion, according to a new report. Carbon Tracker, a nonprofit financial think tank that studies the effects of climate change on financial markets, estimates there are some 3.8 million unplugged oil and gas wells nationally, including more than 783,000 across Texas. As the coronavirus pandemic forces more oil and gas companies into bankruptcy, Carbon Tracker fears more of these unplugged wells could be abandoned, leaving taxpayers on the hook for plugging and cleaning up so-called “orphan wells.” “Texas by far has the highest number of wells of any state in the U.S. and orphan wells are going way up,” said Greg Rogers, a special advisor and co-author of the Carbon Tracker report. “We’re seeing a lot of operators go bankrupt and they can’t afford to fulfill their legal obligations to plug in abandoned wells.” More than 30 oil and gas producers have filed for bankruptcy protection since the coronavirus began widely spreading in the U.S. broke out nationally in March, according to Haynes and Boone. The Dallas-based law firm said bankruptcy filings this year are up 62 percent compared with the same period last year. There are more than 6,200 abandoned oil and gas wells in Texas, according to the Texas Railroad Commission, which oversees oil and gas companies operating in the state.
US oil, gas rig count jumps 18 to 326 for second week of double-digit gains: Enverus— The US oil and gas rig count jumped 18 to 326 in the week ended Sept. 30, rig data provider Enverus said, marking a second consecutive week of double-digit gains and a sign of a bold reversal for a fleet that has wobbled for months within a narrow range amid low oil prices and sluggish activity. Oil-weighted rig totals were up 17 to 234, while rigs chasing gas gained one for a total of 92, Enverus said. The nationwide increased followed a 15-unit gain the previous week. Upstream operators' eagerness to spend the last dollars of 2020 capital budgets before the new year, which eventually is expected to bring higher oil prices than the roughly $40/b that oil has lingered at since late June, was the likely reason behind the startling leap forward in drilling activity, analysts said. Most of the eight largest domestic basins gained rigs in the week; none lost any. Rigs in the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas rose by five to 17, while in the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico rigs were up four to 139. "I think every basin is up because operators were bottomed out," S&P Global Platts Analytics analyst Matt Andre said. Three large basins rose by one rig each: the SCOOP/STACK of Oklahoma went to a total of 12; and two gas-prone plays, the Haynesville Shale in East Texas/Northwest Louisiana and the Marcellus Shale mostly in Pennsylvania, increased to 36 and 27, respectively. The Williston Basin in North Dakota/Montana, the DJ Basin in Colorado and the Utica Shale mostly in Ohio were unchanged on the week at 11, five and seven rigs, respectively. "All these North American and US E&P operators are getting ready for 2021," Tudor Pickering Holt oilfield service analyst Taylor Zurcher said. "They're setting their budgets next year at maintenance level, meaning they'll try to hold their 2020 exit production levels flat over the course of 2021. So, it's a matter of what rig count these guys need to keep their year-end 2020 production flat next year." Zurcher figures a count of 360 to 460 US land rigs are needed to keep domestic production flat. "These operators were so focused in 2020 on cutting costs and maximizing cash flow, so in many ways operators overshot to the downside," he said. "So, to get to where their budgets will be set next year, the rig count will need to increase," he said.
Expert says EGLE doesn't have enough information to approve Line 5 tunnel - A scientific expert says Canadian pipeline company Enbridge Energy has not submitted enough information to the state for permits to build a tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac. The groups Oil and Water Don’t Mix and the National Wildlife Federation included a geological engineer who build tunnels in an online news conference. Brian O’Mara reviewed the reports in the tunnel proposal submitted to the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy. O’Mara says Enbridge did not take nearly enough core samples of bedrock along the route of the tunnel, and what they did take showed it’s not solid bedrock all the way across. “What has been submitted is in no way adequate for EGLE to complete a review, let alone approve,” O’Mara said. When preparing to dig a tunnel, he said it’s typical to take core samples for a tunnel every 50 to 200 feet. Enbridge took samples every 950 feet. He also noted a number of other issues including the risk of a methane explosion underground, or a sink hole immediately below one of the existing Line 5 twin pipelines (Line 5 splits into two pipelines in the Straits). “What Enbridge has submitted to the state of Michigan at this point doesn't come close to what you need to properly design and prepare for a tunnel beneath open water,” he said.
No, Nessel’s Line 5 lawsuit isn’t over ⋆ All parties involved in Nessel vs Enbridge et al, the ongoing suit brought against Canadian oil company Enbridge by Attorney General Dana Nessel last year, agreed Thursday to resolve two pending motions related to damage discovered along the controversial Line 5 pipeline earlier this summer. Although the pending motions for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunctions are now resolved, Nessel’s lawsuit seeking to decommission Enbridge’s Line 5 remains open and active, contrary to some news reports. After both lines were inspected following significant damage to a support anchor discovered in June, federal regulators and an expert retained by the state “determined there was no damage to the pipeline itself from the recent events that would justify requiring Line 5 to remain closed, so we are only resolving the motions for the temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction we filed based on those events,” said Nessel spokesperson Ryan Jarvi. “However, that does not in any way change the attorney general’s position in the lawsuit she filed last year, that the pipelines are a clear and present danger and that this recent incident, along with the anchor strike in 2018, demonstrate the continuing risk that a catastrophic accident could occur. The attorney general’s office continues to pursue the decommissioning of Line 5 to protect the public health, safety and welfare of Michigan’s residents and its natural resources,” Jarvi added. Circuit Court Judge James Jamo signed off on the stipulation agreement Thursday, according to court records. The motions for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order (TRO) were brought by Nessel in late June, soon after Enbridge revealed it had found damage to an anchor support that props up the east leg of the dual underwater pipelines. Jamo granted the TRO on June 25 and ordered the west leg shut down until July 1, when Jamo allowed the segment to restart as long as an in-line inspection was performed. Expedited results the following week showed that the west leg was not damaged. The east segment remained shut down from June 25 until Sept. 10 — nearly three months. An amended TRO from Jamo allowed the line to restart in late August for an in-line inspection. That inspection also showed no signs of damage, and with both the court’s approval and the OK of federal regulators at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), Line 5’s east leg began normal operations once again at 7:30 p.m. on Sept. 10. Since the TRO and preliminary injunction were filed based on support anchor damage and the possibility that there could have been further damage to either leg of the pipeline, there was no need to keep those legal motions in play after no damage had been found.
Devon Energy Absorbs WPX In Oil Industry 'Merger Of Equals' -In what’s being billed as a merger of equals, Devon Energy will acquire WPX Energy in an all-stock deal that gives WPX shareholders five out of 12 board seats and .5165 Devon shares for each of theirs, amounting to 43% of “New Devon.” With a combined capital structure involving $6 billion in debt against $6 billion in equity, and daily production volumes of roughly 525,000 barrels per day of oil (and natural gas equivalents), the new Devon will be bigger than Apache Corp APA -7.1%and Marathon Oil MRO -3%, and just a notch below EOG Resources. The deal, first rumored over the weekend, comes on the heels of Chevron’s CVX -2.7%takeover of Noble Corp. NE +10%, and features a popular new recipe for consolidating America’s beleaguered oilpatch — the stock-for-stock deal gives WPX just a 3% premium. In a ringing endorsement, Devon shares closed up 11% Monday, while WPX was up 16% (both issues are down by more than 2/3rds YTD). More consolidation has to happen, because without it companies will keep shrinking and disappear. With oil prices too low to incentivize new investment, companies have all but stopped drilling and fracking new wells. Devon cut Capex early in the down cycle, and has watched production volumes drop 40% since 2018. The flip side is that when you stop drilling suddenly cash begins to build up. Devon’s cash pile has grown to $1.5 billion.Devon and WPX are a good match, with overlapping acreage holdings in key oil basins that will enable the companies to find upwards of $500 million in combination synergies, including layoffs. According to analysts at Tudor, Pickering & Holt, the new Devon will have enough low-cost oil prospects to target that it will be able to break even at an oil price as low as $33/bbl. The company is forecasting production growth of no more than 5% a year, while reinvesting no more than 80% of cash flow.
Judge removes Trump public lands boss for serving unlawfully (AP) — A federal judge ruled Friday that President Donald Trump’s leading steward of public lands has been serving unlawfully, blocking him from continuing in the position in the latest pushback against the administration’s practice of filling key positions without U.S. Senate approval. U.S. Interior Department Bureau of Land Management acting director William Perry Pendley served unlawfully for 424 days without being confirmed to the post by the Senate as required under the Constitution, U.S. District Judge Brian Morris determined. The ruling came after Montana’s Democratic governor in July sued to remove Pendley, saying the former oil industry attorney was illegally overseeing an agency that manages almost a quarter-billion acres of land, primarily in the U.S. West. “Today’s ruling is a win for the Constitution, the rule of law, and our public lands,” Gov. Steve Bullock said Friday. Environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers from Western states also cheered the judge’s move after urging for months that Pendley be removed. The ruling will be immediately appealed, according to Interior Department spokesman Conner Swanson. He called it “an outrageous decision that is well outside the bounds of the law,” and he said the Obama administration had similarly filled key posts at the agency with temporary authorizations. The agency will abide by the judge’s order while the appeal is pending, officials said. It will also have to confront questions over the legitimacy of all decisions Pendley had made, including his approval of land use plans in Montana that Morris said Pendley was not authorized to make. The land bureau regulates activities ranging from mining and oil extraction to livestock grazing and recreation. Under Trump, it has been at the forefront in the administration’s drive to loosen environmental restrictions for oil and gas drilling and other development on public lands.
More than 40,000 gallons of brine spill in McKenzie County — An estimated 42,000 gallons of produced water leaked from a pipeline near Mandaree in McKenzie County, N.D., on Tuesday, Sept. 29, according to a news release from the state Department of Environmental Quality.Produced water, or brine, is a mixture of saltwater, oil and sometimes, drilling fluids, that is created during oil and gas production. Oklahoma-based Enable Midstream Partners reported the leak, which is not believed to have impacted nearby water sources. Department officials say they will continue inspecting the site and monitoring cleanup efforts.
North Dakota leaders approve revisions to flaring policy (AP) — North Dakota’s Industrial Commission on Tuesday approved a revised gas capture policy that aims to encourage investment in infrastructure but doesn’t change targets for burning excess natural gas at well heads. Current gas capture policy requires companies to capture 88% of the Bakken natural gas they produce. The target increases to 91% on Nov. 1. The remainder of the gas is burned off in a practice known as flaring, which releases carbon dioxide emissions that worsen global warming. State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said the Oil and Gas Division has “relaxed the policy slightly in a few places and tightened it significantly in other places” after months of consultation with industry and environmental groups, The Bismarck Tribune reported. The changes approved unanimously aim to ensure industry compliance with flaring regulations amid future gas production growth, the commission said. “We believe that the revisions that we’ve made to the gas capture policy are the right step at the right time, but I do think every two or three years, we are going to have to look at this thing and modify it as time goes on,” Helms told the three-member, all-Republican panel chaired by Gov. Doug Burgum. Helms said future gas capture requires “a monumental effort” and billions of dollars in infrastructure such as natural gas processing plants and pipelines. North Dakota’s gas production is projected to hit 5.3 billion cubic feet a day 18 years from now. The state produced a record of more than 3.1 billion cubic feet per day in November 2019. Companies have met or exceeded gas capture goals in recent months, largely due to decreased production amid the coronavirus pandemic and several new processing facilities and expansions coming online in the last year
The US Oil and Gas Industry's Methane Problem Is Catching up With It - For years, the oil and gas industry has been able to downplay, or outright ignore, the problem of methane. Methane is an invisible gas, and lax state and federal regulations in the U.S. have allowed oil and gas producers to self-report how much of this potent planet-warming gas leaks from its supply chain, which researchers have repeatedly found is a lot more than the industry was admitting to.But improved technologies, particularly from satellites, have allowed the world to increasingly fact-check industry numbers, shining a light on the true climate impact of natural gas, which is primarily methane. These days, methane emissions have become an industry black eye, to the point that major players are now clamoring for regulations after the Trump administration recently finalized the rollback of Obama-era rules meant to reduce methane leaks from oil and gas.On August 24, the Houston Chronicle published an op-ed arguing for the United States to regulate methane emissions for the oil and gas industry, and it was co-written by two influential voices in the industry, Antoine Halff and Andrew Gould. Halff was formerly the head of oil analysis at the International Energy Agency, an independent, intergovernmental organization focused on energy research and policy — and notorious for its overly optimistic (and inaccurate) outlooks for fossil fuels and overly pessimistic views on renewables. Gould is the former CEO of Schlumberger, the world’s largest oilfield services company. Gould also currently serves on the board of Occidental Petroleum Corporation — one of the largest fracking companies among the Permian oilfields of Texas.Halff and Gould were writing in response to the Trump administration’s repeal of existing methane regulations. However, as a sign of the changing times, they argued that regulating the greenhouse gas is simply good business for the oil and gas industry.“Producers will find it increasingly difficult to stay in business while visibly spewing methane into the air,” they wrote.Major oil companies including Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil have spoken out against the repeal of the existing rule or even voiced support for new emissions rules. “Shell has consistently urged the Trump Administration to directly regulate methane emissions from existing onshore oil and gas assets,” Shell U.S. President Gretchen Watkins said in a statement reported by The Hill. “The negative impacts of leaks and fugitive emissions have been widely acknowledged for years, so it’s frustrating and disappointing to see the Administration go in a different direction.”
Tank Full Of (Butane) - Summer Gasoline, Winter Gasoline, And Reid Vapor Pressure - If you’ve filled up the tank in your car, SUV, or pickup in the past few days, you probably bought your first batch of winter-blend gasoline since the spring. It’s unlikely that you noticed a difference — only a refining geek with a nose for this sort of thing would — but winter gasoline has a higher Reid Vapor Pressure than summer gasoline, and therefore evaporates more quickly and emits more fumes. There’s a logic to EPA’s mandated switchover from lower-RVP gasoline to higher-RVP gasoline each September, and their switch back to lower-RVP each April/May. For one thing, using different gasoline blends during the colder and warmer months helps ensure that your engine runs well year-round; for another, reducing gasoline vapor pressure in the summer reduces emissions that contribute to smog. Today, we discuss gasoline RVP, why it matters, and how refineries ramp it up and down. (A hint is in the blog’s title.) Like oxygen, electricity, and a good internet connection, we all tend to take gasoline for granted nowadays. Open gas cap, insert credit card, pick octane level — somewhere between 85 and 93, depending on the vehicle you drive and the region you live in — stick nozzle in the tank, and squeeze-and-lock the trigger. But there’s a lot more to the gasoline that we depend on than you might think, including the fact that gasoline is actually composed of a long list of hydrocarbons that refiners blend up to meet mandated specifications for octane, RVP, and sulfur (see Down Gasoline Alley for more on sulfur and the Tier 3 mandate). Like alchemists, refiners mix and match an assortment of ingredients, each with different properties and costs. Among other blendstocks (naphtha, isomerate, pyrolysis gasoline, raffinate), the blend pool notably includes:
- FCC gasoline, the primary product of a refinery’s fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) unit, which has octane and RVP levels similar to finished gasoline but is high in sulfur;
- Light, straight-run naphtha, which has low octane levels and is inexpensive but has higher RVP than the summer limitation;
- Alkylate, which is high in octane and low in RVP and sulfur — everything that refiners want — but is very pricey;
- Reformate, another relatively expensive gasoline blending stock; it is produced via catalytic reforming and has high octane, low sulfur, and low RVP. However, it also is high in aromatics, a quality that comes with some limitations of its own.
And then there’s normal butane, which is generally cheap, but has a particularly high RVP. As we’ll get to, that latter characteristic makes butane a problematic gasoline ingredient during the summer months, but from mid-September through mid-spring, when RVP limits are relaxed, butane’s low cost makes it a go-to gasoline blendstock (see Days of Wild for more on butane’s seasonality).
Oil and Gas Companies Indirectly Bailed Out by the Fed - A new report shows the U.S. government bought more than $350 million in bonds issued by oil and gas companies and induced investors to loan the industry tens of billions more at artificially low rates since the coronavirus pandemic began, Bloomberg reported. The Federal Reserve itself bought debt from 19 fossil fuel companies, including 12 that have since been downgraded by independent credit-rating agencies, according to the report, released Wednesday by Public Citizen, Friends of the Earth and Bailout Watch. Since the Federal Reserve began bailing out corporate debt markets in March, a total of 56 oil and gas companies have issued $99.3 billion in debt, including some to companies that have said they may have failed without the cash. By announcing it would buy corporate debts, the reports authors write, the Fed effectively reduced the risk to investors who might otherwise not have purchased the oil and gas companies' debt. "The Treasury and Fed have provided a massive safety net for the oil industry, whose business model was failing before the pandemic," Alan Zibel, research director of Public Citizen's Corporate Presidency Project, told Bloomberg. According to the report: “The bailouts engineered by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are just the latest example of how corporate-friendly Trump appointees have scrambled to help the fossil fuel industry. The dirty-energy sector has been a key source of support for Republicans as well as a consistent pipeline for Trump administration staffers."
U.S. oil refiner Marathon Petroleum cuts 12% of staff because of pandemic -Refiners and oil producers have been dismissing staff, slashing spending and reducing production to cope with weak prices and a global glut of fuel. U.S. gasoline futures are down 26% from a year ago and oil is trading down a third from where it began the year. Marathon will incur an up to $175 million charge to third quarter earnings for the 2,050 job cuts, it reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. About 20% of the charge will be recouped from its publicly traded pipeline unit, the company said. The Findlay, Ohio, firm disclosed the workforce cuts after Reuters on Tuesday reported employees across the company had been notified of impending layoffs. The cuts includes staff at its Martinez, California, and Gallup, New Mexico refineries, which in July were designated to close. The shutdowns and job cuts will lower overall costs beginning next year, Marathon said in a statement. Employees of its retail gasoline business are not included in the 12% reduction. Marathon in August agreed to sell its Speedway unit to Japan's Seven & i Holdings Co Ltd 3382.T, a deal expected to close next year. Red ink and job cuts are expected across the oil industry as results start rolling out next month. U.S. refiners typically gear up for winter heating oil demand after summer driving season ends. This year, heating oil and gasoline consumption are both depressed. “The pandemic has resulted in near-record lows on diesel margins, the go-to product for refineries as we enter into the winter heating season,” said Andrew Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates. “The glut in refining capacity has forced these downstream companies into layoffs,” he said.
Shell to cut thousands of jobs as it shifts toward focus on renewable energy - The oil company Royal Dutch Shell has announced plans for significant job losses as it shifts its focus to more low-carbon alternatives. CEO Ben van Beurden announced in an interview on Wednesday that the company would remain dedicated to its promise to combat climate change by reducing carbon emissions. As a consequence of that promise to be carbon neutral, van Beurden said the company would be shedding between 7,000 and 9,000 jobs before 2022. "As a society, we need to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius, and ideally below 1.5 degrees Celsius. That means society needs a net-zero emissions energy system," van Beurden said. "In that context, a company like Shell has a choice. It can choose to produce oil and gas with the lowest possible emissions. Or it can say: 'If society wants to get to net-zero emissions and we really want to be an integral part of that society, then we need to get to net zero as well.'” Van Beurden noted that the company would need to make a "dramatic change" to become a carbon-neutral company by 2050. He said the company would be shifting away from oil to produce "predominantly low-carbon electricity" and "low-carbon biofuels." He noted that the decision will cause "painful" job losses. "This is an extremely tough process. It is very painful to know that you will end up saying goodbye to quite a few good people. I know I, and many others in Shell, will be saying goodbye to people we know well and really like and who have great loyalty to the company. But we are doing this because we have to, because it is the right thing to do for the future of the company," van Beurden said. "We do not have an exact figure because the details are still being worked out, and we have never had a target to reduce a particular number of jobs. But we can say that, because of the efficiencies we expect to gain, we will reduce between 7,000 and 9,000 jobs by the end of 2022. This includes around 1,500 people who have already agreed to take voluntary redundancy this year, but excludes any who may leave Shell because of divestments," he later added.
U.S. oil producers on pace for most bankruptcies since last oil downturn (Reuters) - Oasis Petroleum Inc and Lonestar Resources US Inc’s bankruptcy filings are the latest in a slew of restructurings that put oil-and-gas producers on track for their biggest year of bankruptcies since the 2016 shale downturn. Thirty-six producers with $51 billion in debt filed for bankruptcy protection in the first eight months of the year, according to the law firm Haynes and Boone. The coronavirus pandemic crushed fuel demand and left debt-laden producers without access to credit. The number of companies filing still lags 2016, when 70 companies filed for bankruptcy. However, those firms were generally smaller and left a total of $56 billion in debt. Oil and gas producer bankruptcies on track for most since 2016: Reuters Graphic. The United States grew to become the world’s largest oil producer at nearly 13 million barrels per day (bpd), led by shale companies. However, those companies, in order to maintain high levels of production, need to keep drilling new wells to offset the swift decline rates from each site. Many shale producers took on heavy debt to finance their operations. Despite the industry’s growth, investor returns have been weak for years, and share prices struggled even as the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index set ever-higher records. “It is reasonable to expect that a substantial number of producers will continue to seek protection from creditors in bankruptcy before this year is over,” Haynes and Boone said in its bankruptcy report. Oasis, which operates in the Bakken formation of North Dakota and Permian in Texas, announced the news on Wednesday. Lonestar said it was going to file for bankruptcy on Thursday.
Why Oil Giants BP, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips Stocks Tumbled More Than 10% in September - Oil market volatility returned with a vengeance last month. Crude oil prices tumbled as rising coronavirus cases caused concerns that demand will remain under pressure. Brent, the global oil benchmark price, plunged 9.6% on the month, while WTI, the U.S. benchmark, slumped 5.6%. The slump in oil prices walloped oil stocks as most sold off sharply last month. Among the notable decliners were leading global producers BP (NYSE:BP), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), which have lots of exposure to Brent. All three oil giants declined by more than 10% in September, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. As major oil producers, BP, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips live and die with oil prices. Because of that, when crude prices tumble, so does their cash flow. Thus, all three will likely report weaker third-quarter earnings following last month's decline, since Brent's sell-off pushed it down 0.5% for the quarter. On a positive note, WTI did end the third quarter up 2.4%, which will benefit the U.S. operations of these oil giants. This year's turbulence caused most oil producers to reevaluate their strategy. BP has basically thrown in the towel on the oil market. The company unveiled its revised long-term outlook on the energy market last month, with a chilling forecast that oil demand has peaked. That's leading the company to shift capital spending from oil to renewable energy. As a result, BP anticipates that its oil output will decline by 40% over the next decade, while its renewable energy production will grow 20-fold. ConocoPhillips and Chevron aren't going quite that far in their strategy shifts. ConocoPhillips provided investors with a glimpse of what's likely ahead. Despite last month's volatility, the oil market has stabilized a bit in recent months, giving oil companies more visibility into their future cash flows. Usually, that leads them to boost spending on capital projects. But ConocoPhillips chose to bring back its stock buyback program instead, aiming to repurchase $1 billion of its shares during the fourth quarter. That move suggests that the company is prioritizing returning cash to shareholders instead of investing in its oil business' growth. Meanwhile, Chevron has been tweaking its portfolio following the initial COVID-19 crash in crude oil prices. It tried to jump-start a consolidation wave in the sector earlier this summer by agreeing to acquire Noble Energy in an all-stock deal valuing the target at $13 billion. Meanwhile, EQT proposed to pay $750 million for 800,000 acres in the Marcellus and Utica shale as well as an interest in a pipeline company. That's well below the $3.4 billion Chevron paid for Atlas Energy and its position in the region a decade ago. This prospective swap suggests that the oil company wants to focus on bulking up its best assets while cutting its losses on others.
An update on Alberta's two PDH-PP plants and their appetite for propane. - In the past three years, two major commitments were made to construct propane dehydrogenation and polypropylene plants in Alberta to take advantage of the rising bounty and generally low cost of propane supplies in Western Canada. Two Calgary-based midstream companies, Inter Pipeline Ltd. and Pembina Pipeline, each started developing PDH-PP plants in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland area northeast of Edmonton. But then came COVID-19, which set back the timeline for one of the projects and put the other on ice. All this comes as Western Canada’s propane market is in greater flux than usual, and facing a tightening supply/demand balance as exports to Asia ramp up. Today, we provide a status check on the development of these two plants, and what the increase in demand might portend for propane balances in the next few years. The increased role of unconventional oil and gas plays in Western Canada in the past decade has resulted in substantial growth of NGL supplies, including propane — too much propane, it often seemed. To make fuller use of burgeoning propane supply, Alberta’s provincial government in December 2016 initiated a royalty incentive program to promote investment in projects that would upgrade propane into value-added products. Taking advantage of abundant low-cost propane supplies and the government’s royalty incentives, two projects eventually came forward: one by Inter Pipeline Ltd.’s (IPL) Heartland Petrochemical Complex (HPC) and the other by a joint venture of Pembina Pipeline and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC). Both plants rely on the process of propane de-hydrogenation (PDH) to create polypropylene (PP), a primary chemical building block for everyday products such as automotive parts, plastic containers, and reusable shopping bags. If you love inorganic chemistry, the basic steps behind this process are explained in Things Can Only Get Better.
Nord Stream 2 Nears Completion After Clearing Another Hurdle - Denmark cleared on Thursday the final hurdle to Nord Stream 2 potentially starting operations in Danish waters, while the U.S. continues its attempt to stop the Russia-led natural gas pipeline project. On Thursday, the Danish Energy Agency said it had granted Nord Stream 2 AG, the company behind the project, an operations permit for the Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the Danish continental shelf, on a number of conditions. “Commissioning can only take place when at least one of the pipelines has been tested, verified and when relevant conditions in the construction permit and the operations permit have been met,’’ the Danish agency said.Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said an interview with a German daily last week that the U.S. was building a coalition aimed at preventing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will substantially increase the flow of Russian gas into Europe. “From the US point of view, Nord Stream 2 endangers Europe because it makes it dependent on Russian gas and endangers Ukraine - which in my opinion worries many Germans,” Pompeo told German daily Bild.Germany, the endpoint of Nord Stream 2, has been looking at the economic benefits of the project, while the United States, including President Donald Trump, has been threatening sanctions on the project and even on Germany over its support for the project.The United States, several European countries including the Baltic states and Poland, as well as the European Union (EU), have expressed concern about Russia using gas sales and its gas monopoly Gazprom as a political tool. The United States views Nord Stream 2 as further undermining Europe’s energy security by giving Gazprom another pipeline to ship its natural gas to European markets. In July, the United States warned companies helping Russia to complete Nord Stream 2 that they should ‘get out now’ or face consequences, as the Trump administration steps up efforts to stop the construction of the controversial Russia-led pipeline in Europe. In recent weeks, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under pressure from some of her coalition partners to drop the German support for Nord Stream 2 after the poisoning of Russian opposition leader and Putin critic, Alexey Navalny.
Europe’s Oil Refineries Struggling to Cope With Diesel Glut The coronavirus is destroying the profitability of Europe’s oil refiners and the industry is hunkering down for a tough winter. Owners of plants in Finland, France and the Netherlands made announcements in recent weeks that point to the likely closure of facilities in those countries. While that would take out some surplus refining capacity, there’s a more pressing issue: the region’s refineries will operate about 25% below capacity this month, according to IHS Markit. With virus cases surging and diesel trading near its weakest in at least nine years, few are optimistic for a meaningful recovery. Diesel is under pressure from almost every angle. Refineries, responding to still-collapsed jet fuel demand, are making more of the road fuel instead. Another challenge is that gasoline markets are holding up as people avoid public transport by driving their cars to work. That puts pressure on the plants to continue processing crude even if it means churning out more diesel at a time when demand remains lackluster. “It’s very difficult for anyone to make money when diesel cracks are at this level,” said UBS Group AG analyst Henri Patricot, referring to the price gap between the fuel and crude oil in Europe. “We continue to see a demand recovery, but it has slowed.” Diesel now costs about $4 a barrel more than crude in Europe, after falling recently to the lowest in at least nine years. That’s particularly difficult for Europe’s refiners since the fuel represents almost half a typical plant’s output. Gasoline traded at just over $4 a barrel more than crude in Europe on Wednesday. That’s a big improvement on recent months, but still a very low level by historic standards. “We don’t see any scope for strong recovery in refinery utilization through next spring,” said Eleanor Budds, an analyst at IHS Markit. “Demand recovery will be hampered by restrictions on movement and very subdued jet demand.” While refiners can re-jig what they make depending on seasonal changes in demand, European producers would normally expect demand for heating oil, a similar product to diesel, to support margins in winter. The current weakness also coincides with maintenance season in the industry, when the idling of capacity should also offer some support.
Emergency declared at oil spill site on Russias Taymyr Peninsula --The authorities of Russia's Taymyr Peninsula declared an emergency situation as a result of an oil spill that occurred due to the depressurization of a temporary pipeline during oil pumping, the press service of the local authorities said on Wednesday. The prosecutor's office of the Krasnoyarsk Territory previously said that an inspection was launched after almost one tonne of crude oil got on the soil and into the Khatanga river. "By the decision of the commission for the prevention and elimination of emergencies and ensuring fire safety of the municipal district, the spill of crude oil in the territory of the Khatanga village was recognized as an emergency. The fuel was spilled while it was being pumped from Lenaneft-2060 tanker to an oil products warehouse. Municipal emergency regime ... has been introduced ... To take urgent measures to eliminate the emergency spill, a local level of emergency response has been established, its zone is determined by the territory of the spill," the statement said. On Thursday, a special commission will arrive in Khatanga to assess the damage.
Venezuela Sees Oil Revenue Fall By 99% As U.S. Sanctions Sting -Venezuela’s foreign currency revenues—almost all of which come from crude oil sales—have plunged by 99 percent since 2014, Nicolas Maduro said, blaming most of the losses on the “persecution and criminal blockade” of Venezuela’s oil exports.“In six years of persecution and criminal blockade against Venezuela, the country lost 99 percent of its foreign currency income,” Maduro said on Twitter, sharing a graph showing that Venezuela’s foreign currency income slumped from US$56.6 billion in 2013 to just US$477 million as of September 28, 2020. The decline of 99 percent was attributed in the graphic to the drop in oil prices in that period and the ‘blockade’ of Venezuela’s oil exports. Venezuela’s exports have significantly slumped since the U.S. imposed sanctions on its crude oil exports in early 2019, essentially prohibiting U.S. refiners from buying Venezuelan crude, which was a large part of the imports of crude for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners.U.S. sanctions have exacerbated the already dire state of the Venezuelan oil industry, which is suffering from years of mismanagement, corruption, lack of investment, and the inability of the financially weak state oil firm PDVSA to invest in new production or find customers willing to risk secondary U.S. sanctions if they purchase Venezuelan oil. Venezuela’s oil production and exports have been in freefall for several years, but the U.S. sanctions on its industry and exports, the crash in demand, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated the decline.Venezuela’s oil industry was collapsing even before the oil price crash and the pandemic, due to the increasingly stricter sanctions in the U.S. maximum pressure campaign against Maduro’s regime and its sources of revenues. Oil income is pretty much the only hard currency that Maduro gets, so the U.S. is looking to stifle as much of Venezuela’s oil trade as possible. At the end of August, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams told Reuters in an interview that the U.S. Administration is considering a tightening of the sanctions against Venezuela in the near future.
Mauritius still evaluating Oil Spill damage - Two months after a cargo loaded with fuel ran aground off Mauritius, the shores are still taking stock of the damage. The rich fishing grounds and sensitive marine habitats have been severly damaged by the oil. Conservationists are particularly concerned about the long-term ecological damage to the island's marine ecosystems. "There is visible pollution, and invisible pollution. Some of the oil doesn't float but dissolves in the sea. The fish eat it, the coral absorbs it, it goes into the ecosystems", environmental expert Sunil Dowarkasing said. The oil itself is known as VLSFO -- a fuel oil less viscous and lower in sulphur than conventional fuel oils. But this newer generation oil is poorly understood in terms of its environmental impact, said Ware. "They are quite new to us, compared to the heavy fuel oils that we mostly used to deal with... That is why we need to study this, and this will certainly help for future oil spills elsewhere." The tourism industry, crucial to the country's economy, has suffered a heavy blow, in what is the worst environmental disaster ever witnessed in the Indian Ocean archipelago. "This oil spill is the worst environmental disaster that Mauritius has ever faced. We are still assessing the damage to the mangroves and the coastal areas. Thousands of volunteers marshalled along the coast in the early days wearing rubber boots and gloves, scrubbing the shoreline clean and stringing together makeshift cordons to contain the oily tide. Since then the government has identified 26 affected sites around the coastline and commissioned the clean-up operation to French company Le Floch Depollution and Greek outfit Polyeco SA. "The work is progressing satisfactorily, but it is a very delicate clean-up operation, we must make sure that it is done in a methodical and systematic way", Environment Minister Kavydass Ramano said. The clean-up is divided into four phases, and some sites are already in the second or third stage. The ship eventually split in two and the bow and hull of the wreck were towed 15 kilometres (nine miles) offshore and sunk. The stern remains on the reef and the government expects to announce a contract to remove it within days, Ramano said.
Controversial Mauritius ship involved in Operation To Tow Broken Sri Lanka Oil Supertanker -- The Panama- flag oil supertanker that had an explosion off the coast of Sri Lanka earlier this month, the MT New Diamond, is being helped by a controversial support vessel that led the operation to deliberately sink a large, Japanese iron ore vessel Wakashio in the coastal waters of Mauritius last month. Satellite analysis by global maritime analytics firm, Windward has revealed that the Malta-flagged fire-ship, Boka Expedition, sailed from the scene of the controversial scuttling of the Wakashio on 24 August, an event that sparked national protests in Mauritius and outside its embassies around the world. Photos taken by the Mauritian Coastguard were shared but the location of the sinking was never disclosed. Within days, a second vessel sunk in Mauritian waters, the Sir Gaetan Duval with the loss of four crew on 31 August. Satellite analysis from Windward reveals that the Boka Expedition was also involved in the Search and Rescue operation there too. Five days later, the Boka Expedition then sailed straight to the MT New Diamond that was on fire for several days off the coast of Sri Lanka. The complex mission to save the MT New Diamond took almost a week and involved a dozen ships from several nations. The Panama-flagged oil supertanker was carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil from Kuwait to India when an onboard explosion 40 miles off the coast of Sri Lanka killed a crew member and put the entire Southeast coastline of the large Indian Ocean island at risk. SMIT Salvage has been involved in the salvage operation in Mauritius with the Wakashio since the start, and the same company is also engaged in the operation for the MT New Diamond that is now off the coast of India and unable to be towed into a port. The Malta-flagged Boka Expedition had been singled out by Greenpeace, who identified several international laws that may have broken with its role in the sinking of the Japanese oil spill ship the Wakashio.
Vietnam approves Exxon's $5 billion LNG-to-power project - The port city of Hai Phong in Vietnam has approved a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project for power generation, expected to be developed by U.S. supermajor ExxonMobil and to cost US$5.09 billion. The people’s committee of the city of Hai Phong approved the project which is expected start electricity generation in 2026 or 2027, Reuters reported on Friday, citing a statement from the Vietnamese city. The power plant is expected to have an initial capacity of 2.25 gigawatts (GW) when it becomes operational. Capacity will be doubled to 4.5 GW by 2029-2030, the city of Hai Phong said. In June this year, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc told Irtiza Sayyed, President of ExxonMobil LNG Market Development, that Vietnam welcomes the U.S. supermajor’s plans to invest in the Southeast Asian country. Exxon is exploring the possibility of investing in new projects to develop LNG-to-power plants in Vietnam, the local government said at the time. The plans included a 4-GW LNG-to-power plant in Hai Phong, which could start generating power between 2025 and 2030, and a 3-GW gas-fired power complex in the Mekong Delta province of Long An. While LNG-to-power projects led by Exxon in Vietnam could become reality only in the latter half of this decade, the U.S. oil giant is doubling down in the more immediate future on its operations in Guyana—one of its key focus areas. Earlier this week, Exxon made the final investment decision on the Payara offshore oilfield in Guyana.. Payara is expected to yield up to 220,000 bpd of crude oil when commercial production begins in 2024. This would be the third offshore development project of the supermajor in Guyana, which rose to fame thanks to a string of discoveries in the Stabroek block made by Exxon and its partner Hess Corp. So far, the discovered recoverable resources in the block have been estimated at more than 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Chevron resumes arbitration in Thai gas dispute (Reuters) - U.S. energy major Chevron Corp has resumed arbitration proceedings with Thailand to try to resolve a dispute over who should pay for removing offshore assets in the country’s Erawan gas field, the company told Reuters on Friday. The move comes a year after the company suspended the legal process to allow more time for talks with Thailand’s energy ministry, ahead of the end of its concession in April 2022. “For the last 12 months we have been seeking a solution on this issue ... in order to reach agreement that protects our rights as an investor,” a company spokesman told Reuters. “With no such solution likely in the near term, we are regretfully compelled to reinstate arbitration.” Thailand’s energy ministry was not immediately available for comment, but has said it would be ready to enter arbitration if needed. The dispute resulted from a retroactive Thai law in 2016 requiring gas field operators to pay the costs of decommissioning assets they have installed, including those they will transfer free of charge to a next operator. Last year, Thailand asked Chevron to pay the full decommissioning costs of around $2 billion for assets in the Erawan gas field, including those it will hand over to PTT Exploration and Production Pcl, a unit of the state-owned PTT Pcl. Chevron argues that, under the terms of its initial contracts from 1971, it is only liable for infrastructure that is no longer deemed usable and the transferred assets are the responsibility of the new operator.
Saudi Aramco ships first cargo from Jizan refinery, heading to Singapore: Kpler - — Saudi Aramco is sending its first cargo from its new Jizan refinery on the kingdom's west coast to Singapore, the clearest indicator that the 400,000 b/d facility is in advanced phases of startup. Aramco chartered the UACC Eagle to send 475,000 barrels of gasoil to Singapore from Jizan, according to data analytics firm Kpler. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in August that first processing at Jizan was expected to begin by the first quarter of 2021. Aramco declined to comment. The UACC Eagle was heading for the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a sea route chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. Kpler said the destination is Singapore. Saudi Arabia sent two shipments of crude to Jizan last year in preparation for startup, with 2.03 million barrels arriving in October and another 2 million barrels in November, according to Kpler data. The newly constructed 400,000 b/d refinery, also spelled Jazan, will start with crude runs of 200,000 b/d before ramping up to 400,000 b/d, Nasser said in August. It had previously been expected to be commissioned at the end of 2019 and be ready for full operations in the second half of 2020. The refinery, in the far south of Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea about 60 km from the Yemeni border, has been targeted in several missile attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, though Saudi officials say they have intercepted each attempted strike. The Bab el-Mandeb is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It estimated 6.2 million b/d of crude oil, condensate and refined petroleum products flowed through the strait toward Europe, the US and Asia in 2018, an increase from 5.1 million b/d in 2014.
Oil steady as surging virus cases cloud demand outlook - Oil prices were largely steady on Monday but on track for their first monthly fall since April as rising coronavirus cases continued to spur concerns about demand. Brent crude was unchanged at $41.92 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate was at $40.13 a barrel, down 12 cents or 0.3%. "The rise in daily infections has accelerated and the total number is now very close to 33 million. The most impacted countries are the populous ones," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. "The speed with which the virus is spreading is the main concern for both health officials and financial investors." Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that the global oil market has been stable for the past few months and the demand-supply balance restored, but warned of the risks of a second wave of COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile one of the heaviest clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2016 broke out over the weekend, reigniting concern about stability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas to world markets. Despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to limit output, more crude is being exported from OPEC producers Iran and Libya. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Sunday that commercial oil inventories in OECD countries are expected to stand only slightly above the five-year average in the first quarter of 2021, before falling below that level for the rest of the year. A factor that may offer some support to the market is the prospect of industrial action in Norway, where a workers' strike that may take place on Sept. 30 is threatening to cut its production by 900,000 barrels per day, the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) said on Friday.
Oil up 1% on economic hope; virus fears check price gains (Reuters) - Oil prices rose 1% on Monday as global equities rallied on hopes for another U.S. stimulus package, but rising virus cases fed concerns about fuel demand and kept oil futures from moving higher. Brent crude LCOc1 settled at $42.43 a barrel, up 51 cents, or 1.22%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 settled at $40.60 a barrel, rising 35 cents, or 0.87%. “In my opinion, the most likely event capable of moving the crude oil market to the next level would be the passing of a coronavirus stimulus package,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Oil followed Wall Street higher as American political talks continued for another COVID-19 relief bill after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said she thought a deal could be reached with the White House. A weaker U.S. dollar, which moves inversely with oil prices, also helped crude futures. Still, the global health crisis, which has slashed global fuel consumption, kept oil prices from pushing much higher. “The speed with which the virus is spreading is the main concern for both health officials and financial investors,”
Oil falls as demand worries counter U.S. stimulus hopes - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, paring gains from the previous session, as persistent demand concerns due to the coronavirus pandemic outweighed hopes for a new U.S. stimulus package. More than 1 million people have died of Covid-19 as of Tuesday, a Reuters tally showed, with fatalities and infections surging in several countries. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 21 cents, or 0.52%, to $40.39. The more-active Brent crude futures for December fell 19 cents, or 0.4%, to $42.68 a barrel. The November contract, which expires on Wednesday, fell 13 cents to $42.30 per barrel. Commodities markets crept up earlier in the day as Democratic lawmakers unveiled a new $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill, which U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said was a compromise measure. "If it happens, the U.S. stimulus checks will go a long way to shoring up U.S. oil demand at a most critical juncture and could move oil prices back into a pre-September frame of mind," Brent and WTI in August hit their highest levels since early March on optimism over rising fuel demand and major oil producers' strong compliance with promised supply cuts. Since then, though, they have dropped about $3 on demand worries. "The rally (overnight) has quickly run out of steam in Asia," "The price action suggests that although the speculative community is still short ... the underlying bearish drivers are still ascendant," he said, pointing to reduced consumption and a global oversupply. Investors will be looking for signs of U.S. demand growth in data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters on average estimate U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week to September 25. They expect gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.6 million barrels and distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell by 800,000 barrels. Traders were also keeping an eye on clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. If the conflict escalates it could affect oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan, analysts said. Meanwhile, data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's imports of crude oil in August fell more than 25% from a year earlier.
Oil drops 3% on weak demand outlook and higher OPEC supplies (Reuters) - Oil prices fell over 3% on Tuesday to their lowest in two weeks on worries about the outlook for fuel demand as Europe and the United States grappled with a surge in new coronavirus infections. Investors in stocks and commodities also remained cautious ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump later on Tuesday. .DJI.SPX “Today’s lower trade generally followed declines in the equities,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. On its second to last day as the front-month, Brent LCOc1 futures for November delivery fell $1.40, or 3.3%, to settle at $41.03 a barrel, while the more active Brent contract for December LCOc2 fell 3.1% to settle at $41.56. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell $1.31, or 3.2%, to settle at $39.29 per barrel. Those price declines came ahead of the release of U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday that is expected to show crude stockpiles increased 1.6 million barrels last week. [API/S] [EIA/S] More than a million people worldwide have died from COVID-19, according to a Reuters tally, a bleak milestone in a pandemic that has devastated the global economy and demand for fuel.
WTI Holds Stimulus-Hope Gains After Surprise Crude Draw -- Oil prices rebounded overnight as stocks rallied on fiscal stimulus hope and the API-reported inventory data sank in. “Traders see oil demand as fragile,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, senior oil-market analyst at Rystad Energy. “We may see some production needing to be sent to inventories in 2020’s last quarter.” DOE
- Crude -1.98mm (+1.9mm exp)
- Cushing +1.785mm
- Gasoline +683k (-1.3mm exp)
- Distillates -3.184mm (-1.7mm exp)
A surprisingly large crude draw combined with a big distillates draw... Source: Bloomberg Most of the storm-impacted noise has now left the data. WTI hovered around $39.50 ahead of the official data and maintained those levels immediately after... Finally, we note that Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy analyst Vince Piazza warns that "daily U.S. crude output has crept close to 11 million barrels a day from the May low of 10 million, adding supply to a market whose downstream demand remains depressed by the effects of Covid-19. Well completions could drive production higher, and that would be compounded by any move of WTI into the high $40s. Coronavirus outbreaks in Europe and elsewhere add to the pressure on demand, and we believe adjusted storage remains high and limits long-term rally prospects."
Oil prices settle higher as U.S. supplies fall a third week - U.S. oil futures settled higher Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a third consecutive weekly decline in domestic crude supplies. Prices, however, still suffered their first monthly decline since April as concerns persist about the global economic outlook and its impact on demand. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories fell for a third straight week, down by 2 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 25. That compared with an average climb of 1.9 million barrels expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday had reported a fall of 831,000 barrels. The data revealed an unexpected draw in crude oil, but traders should “definitely take note of the large build” at the trading hub in Cushing, Okla., Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch. The EIA data showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub rose by 1.8 million barrels for the week. Overall, the risk for oil prices is to the downside, with another wave of the coronavirus impacting demand as the market goes through the fourth quarter, said Zahir. “Couple that with additional supply that has come back to the market from Libya,” following the recent lift of a months-long blockade on crude exports.
Oil drops 3% on weak demand outlook and higher OPEC supplies (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 3% on Thursday as rising coronavirus cases around the world dampened the demand outlook, and a rise in OPEC output last month also pressured prices. Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell $1.37, or 3.2%, to settle at $40.93 a barrel after dropping to a low of $39.92. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures ended down $1.50, or 3.7%, at $38.72 after sliding more than 6% to a session low of $37.61. “It has become evident that the virus has not been contained. Infection rates are going up, the global death toll has surpassed the 1 million mark and the world is becoming a gloomy place once again,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga. In the United States alone the pandemic has infected more than 7.2 million and killed more than 206,000. Europe’s worst COVID-19 hot spot, Madrid, will go into lockdown in coming days and Moscow’s mayor ordered employers to send at least 30% of their staff home, as several European countries reported records in new infections. Standard Chartered analysts said they now expect global demand to fall 9.03 million bpd in 2020 and recover by 5.57 million bpd in 2021, leaving the 2021 average slightly below the 2016 average. Increasing oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also weighed on the market, with output in September up 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August, a Reuters survey found. The rise was largely on the back of higher supplies from Libya and Iran, both exempt from an oil supply pact between OPEC and allies led by Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+.
Oil settles at lowest price in more than 2 weeks – Oil futures were sharply lower Thursday, with prices logging their lowest settlement since mid-September, as worries about rising cases of COVID-19 worldwide fed expectations for a slowdown in energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery dropped $1.50, or 3.7%, to settle at $38.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a 2.4% gain on Wednesday. Prices for the U.S. benchmark, based on the front-month contracts, saw monthly fall of 5.6%, but ended 2.4% higher for the quarter, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil prices in September suffered their first monthly decline since April. December Brent crude shed $1.37, or 3.2%, at $40.93 a barrel after trading as low as $39.92 on the ICE Future Europe exchange. Prices for both WTI and Brent marked the lowest front-month settlements since Sept. 15 reported MarketWatch. “The oil market can’t shake its demand fear funk even though U.S. oil supply continues to tighten,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported an unexpected decline of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude supply. That marked three weekly declines in a row. “Lingering demand concerns makes the market less concerned about the trend of tightening supply,
Oil loses 4% after Trump gets coronavirus and economies wobble (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 4% on Friday, and posted a second weekly decline after U.S. President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19, roiling risky assets, and as rising global crude output threatened to overwhelm the market’s weak recovery. Benchmark Brent and U.S. crude each posted a second straight week of losses. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. president’s health added to a series of jitters, including a lackluster U.S. unemployment report and increased supply from major world oil producers. “It’s been a rough week, and now the president’s diagnosis sends a shudder through markets,” . “The COVID-19 pandemic has weighed more on the oil market than any other asset class.” This week marked the grim milestone of 1 million deaths and several countries are tightening restrictions and contemplating lockdowns as infections accelerate. Brent crude was down $1.66, or 4.1%, at $39.27 a barrel. Brent was down 7% on the week. U.S. oil settled down $1.67, or 4.3% at $37.05 a barrel, an 8% drop on the week. Both benchmarks were down for a second consecutive week. The U.S. labor market recovery slowed in September, as non-farm payrolls increased by 661,000 jobs last month after advancing 1.49 million in August, the U.S. Labor Department said. Trump’s announcement that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 prompted sell-offs in equity markets worldwide. Increasing supply also weighed on the market. U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs in the latest week, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co, a signal of more supply to come. The increase was the third in a row, and came as price increases in recent months prompted some producers to start drilling again. Crude supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in September by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a month earlier, a Reuters survey showed.
Oil sells off after Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, sending U.S. prices down 8% for the week - Oil prices were hit Friday by news that President Donald Trump said he contracted coronavirus, adding to the industry’s concerns about rising cases of the disease worldwide which may dent demand for the commodity. The news that Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for Covid 19 “creates a new round of market uncertainty and reinforcing fears of a second wave of the virus, which will harm the economy and projected energy demand,” “Broader implications of the diagnose for energy, not only for the short term but for the long-term, cannot be understated. “ West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery tumbled $1.67, or 4.3%, to settle at $37.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest finish since Sept. 8, according to Dow Jones Market Data. December Brent crude futures slid 4.1%, or $1.66, to $39.27 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling at the lowest front-month contract price since June 12. Based on the front-month contracts, WTI futures lost about 8% and Brent futures declined by 7.4% for the week. Oil prices had logged their lowest settlement since mid-September on Thursday, driven by fears that COVID-19 cases will drive demand lower, even as U.S. supply tightens up. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a surprise fall of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude supply, the third straight weekly decline. Still, data from Baker Hughes Friday showed the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 6 to 189 this week, marking as second straight weekly rise and implying an upcoming rise in output. The crude market was already breaking down “before the announcement of the president’s COVID diagnosis,” . “Fears around demand growth through the 4th quarter have undermined market sentiment.” Investors in oil markets have been keeping close watch on the disease’s expansion, which has worsened in parts of Europe, because it has a direct effect on the commodity if economies begin to slow down. Among other petroleum products, November gasoline RBX20, -0.40% lost 2.5% to $1.1235 a gallon, with prices ending 5.6% lower for the week, and November heating oil HOX20, -0.09% declined by 3.6% to $1.085 a gallon, for a weekly loss of 4.3%.
Oil prices likely to continue to struggle in the fourth quarter as demand lags - Oil prices are expected to rise just slightly in the final quarter of the year, held back from further gains by a deep chill in global travel and a still healing economy. Analysts forecast the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate should rise to the low to mid-$40s per barrel, but they also see risks tilted toward another drop in oil prices. "If anything, they're vulnerable to falling into the low $30s. The oil market is taking Covid the hardest of all of the asset classes out there," . "Demand is just not coming back, especially for jet fuel." Oil prices have clawed back from a crushing decline earlier this year, as the global economy shut down. Oil futures prices were even temporarily negative, as the market reacted to huge oversupply and a big drop in global demand. WTI futures fell below $40 this week and settled at $38.71 Thursday, falling 3.9% amid worries about the coronavirus and reports of a rise in OPEC output. "It looks really bleak right now. This was a bust for the ages," "The demand just isn't picking up." Bank of America expects oil prices to remain range bound in the mid $40s to year end. "In terms of downside risks, a big second Covid-19 wave was always going to rank first, but a warm winter now ranks second given the persistent surplus in distillate fuels," Blanch expects little price movement even though he expects the oil market could move into a 4.9 million barrel a day deficit, due to OPEC cuts if demand does rise. "Yet diesel and jet fuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market," notes Blanch. He said that means crude oil prices cannot gain real traction until distillate demand, including jet fuel, recovers to a more normal level. The oil industry has been cutting back on production and spending on further development. Royal Dutch Shell, for instance, is looking to slash up to 40% of the cost of producing oil and gas in an effort to preserve cash so it can overhaul its operations and focus more on renewables and power, according to Reuters. The industry is also debating how much of the Covid-related cutbacks could be permanent. A recent report from BP supported a longer-term view that fossil fuel demand may have already hit its limit and may not be likely to fully recover from the impact of the virus. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently cut back its near-term demand outlook, and now expects demand to average 90.2 million barrels a day in 2020, down 400,000 barrels a day from its last forecast and a decrease of 9.5 million barrels a day from a year ago. "There are still these serious headwinds for oil in terms of the macro outlook," "OPEC is very focused on compliance. It's just a question to me of how much more can you get out of these producers in terms of compliance."
Saudi Arabia’s Economy Hit Hard By The Oil Price Crash - Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank by 7 percent, with the unemployment rate hitting a record high in the second quarter as the combined effect of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic hit the world’s largest oil exporter hard. Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product (GDP) slumped by 7.0 percent year over year in Q2, the Kingdom’s General Authority for Statistics said on Wednesday. The oil sector contracted by 5.3 percent, while the non-oil sector shrank by 8.2 percent due to the restrictions and lockdowns to curb the pandemic. In Q2, the value of exports of goods and services plunged by 55.8 percent from a year earlier, mainly due to a 61.8-percent plunge in the value of oil exports, the statistics authority said. Meanwhile, the Saudi unemployment rate increased to 15.4 percent in the second quarter of 2020, a record high and 3.1 percentage points higher than in the same period of last year. Among the unemployed Saudis, 63.1 percent belonged to the age group of 20-29 years, the General Authority for Statistics said. The collapse in oil prices—to which Saudi Arabia itself contributed when it flooded the market with oil during the worst demand crash in April—has forced the Kingdom to take some very unpopular measures such as tripling the value-added tax (VAT), reducing payouts to poorer households, and discontinuing cost-of-living allowances for state workers. Saudi Arabia’s economic outlook for this year remains uncertain amid the pandemic-driven economic slowdown and the collapse in oil prices that led to the Kingdom slashing its oil production as part of the new OPEC+ pact, Ahmed al-Kholifey, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA), said earlier in September.
Difficult days await Saudi citizens – Middle East Monitor -Deflation, increased unemployment, expanding poverty rates, a growing deficit in the public budget, a significant decline in general revenues, foreign exchange reserves and public reserves, stagnation in the markets, paralysis in vital activities, expatriate workers fleeing, a sharp decline in the profits of banks and major companies and salaries being paid late – these are some of the most significant recent indicators of the state of the Saudi economy.These factors also confirm that worse may be coming for the kingdom and that a financial and economic crisis is imminent. This crisis will directly affect the living conditions of citizens who may find themselves facing a difficult reality.Some of Saudi’s most critical tribulations are the increase in the cost of living and the rise in the prices of basic commodities, including gasoline and diesel, in a country that is the largest oil producer in the world. Moreover, the cost of water, electricity, public transport and telephone bills have magnified, while taxes have risen, especially VAT. Perhaps imposing new taxes previously unknown to the kingdom, such as income tax, may follow, as well as other austerity measures.Saudi Arabia may need to take other steps including the government’s acceleration of the privatisation policy, such as the sales of companies and vital facilities to the private sector and foreign investors, especially healthcare and education – including schools, hospitals and pharmacies.It may also need to sell all flour mills, desalination companies, electricity production and 27 airports, while reducing spending, expediting the pace of external and internal borrowing, and therefore increasing public debt, while continuing to withdraw from cash reserves deposited abroad. Saudi may also postpone the implementation of many major investment projects that aid the economy, create new jobs and augment the rate of economic growth.The latest indicators issued on Wednesday by the kingdom signal a jump in the unemployment rate among Saudis, as the rate increased during the second quarter of this year to 15.4 per cent, compared to 11.8 per cent during the first quarter of the year.It is noteworthy that the rise in the unemployment rate occurred despite around 2.5 million expatriate workers leaving the kingdom since 2017, and there are 1.2 million expatriate workers expected to leave the kingdom during the current year, due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Major companies have also stopped paying salaries, while private sector companies are lowering them, while continuing to implement the Saudisation policy of replacing foreign workers with national workers, as well as localising many economic sectors. This growth in unemployment rates is occurring in Saudi Arabia, one of the richest Arab countries and the largest oil producer in the world. It may disturb the calculations of the decision-maker who had planned to reduce the unemployment rate among Saudis to only seven per cent, according to the Saudi Vision 2030, and to about 10.6 per cent for the year 2020, according to the expectations of the Ministry of Economy.
Kuwait calls for end to Israeli occupation of Palestine - The Kuwaiti Prime Minister reaffirmed his country’s principled and firm position in supporting the choices of the Palestinian people to obtain their legitimate rights, Anadolu Agency reports. “The Palestinian cause still occupies a central historical and pivotal position in Arab and Islamic worlds,” Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah told the 75th session of the UN General Assembly via video link. Al-Sabah stressed the importance of continuing efforts to relaunch negotiations to reach a just and comprehensive peace in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative. He called for an end to the Israeli occupation and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. READ: The UAE’s ‘Hope Probe’ offers no hope to the Palestinians Al-Sabah also reasserted Kuwait’s position that the political solution is the only solution to the ongoing crisis in Yemen. He called on all parties to agree to the proposals put forward by Martin Griffiths, the UN’s special envoy for Yemen. The Kuwaiti prime minister also urged all parties to the Libyan conflict to exercise restraint and allow peaceful solutions based on dialogue.
Rocket Attacks On Baghdad's Green Zone Stepped Up Amid US 'Warning' It'll Shutter Embassy -Rumors seemed to fly all day Sunday on Mideast social media channels based on unnamed US sources that a major attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone was imminent.This at the same time it's being widely reported that the State Department is actually considering shuttering the embassy's operations altogether, angry at the Iraqi government's inability to reign in the Shia paramilitary groups likely responsible for repeat mortar and missile attacks on the area. And now Monday more Katyusha rockets have been launched targeting the embassy, though they are being reported to have landed somewhere in the Green Zone off target.This after the prior day The Wall Street Journal reported the following: The Trump administration has warned Iraq it is preparing to shut down its embassy in Baghdad unless the Iraqi government stops a spate of rocket attacks by Shiite militias against U.S. interests, Iraqi and U.S. officials said Sunday, in a fresh crisis in relations between the two allies. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered the warning in recent calls to Iraqi President Barham Salih and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the officials said.We doubt the majority of Iraqis will miss the American presence, given in recent years anti-American demonstrations have grown, demanding the end of US troop presence. Given the US "warning" to Baghdad, it's now much more likely the rocket attacks and rumors of a Benghazi style ground assault upon the embassy complex will grow. The pro-Iranian militias, seeing the Americans are "on their way out" will only attempt to hasten the swift exit.
Yemens FM blames Houthis for looming Safer oil tanker disaster - Yemen’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Hadhrami blamed the Houthi militia for the Safer oil tanker’s looming disaster as the militia continued to block the United Nation’s help to access the damage. Al-Hadhrami stressed the importance of pressuring the Houthis to allow technicians from the international organization to access the tanker during a meeting with senior British diplomats on Thursday, state news agency Saba New reported. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia warned the UN Security Council that an “oil spot” has been sighted in a shipping lane 50 km west of abandoned and decaying Safer oil tanker off the coast of Yemen. Experts fear it could spill 1.1 million barrels of crude into the Red Sea. The tanker has been moored near Ras Issa oil terminal for more than five years. The UN previously warned that it could leak four times as much oil as was spilled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off the coast of Alaska. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the Security Council have repeatedly called on Houthi insurgents in Yemen to grant access the tanker for a technical assessment and emergency repairs. UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said last week that a new UN proposal to assess and carry out initial repairs on the Safer oil tanker was being discussed with the Houthis. “We hope the new proposal will be quickly approved so the work can start,” he said. Meanwhile President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi on Thursday urged Houthis to stop impeding the flow of urgently needed humanitarian aid following a warning from the UN humanitarian chief last week that “the specter of famine” has returned to the conflict-torn country. His plea came in a pre-recorded speech to the UN General Assembly’s ministerial meeting being held virtually because of the COVID-19 pandemic. “We are trying to save our country and establish a just and lasting peace,” Hadi said, blaming Iran for meddling in his nation. “The objective is to stop the bloodletting in Yemen,” he said. Lowcock told the UN Security Council last week that famine in Yemen, the Arab world’s poorest country, was averted two years ago because donors swiftly met 90 percent of the UN’s funding requirements. But the UN’s latest figures show that the current $3.4 billion appeal is less than 38 percent funded.
Armenia Stands ‘Ready’ To Trigger Defense Pact With Russia As Azerbaijan Fighting Intensifies - Armenia could trigger its collective defense pact with Russia, the latter which also has a sprawling military base at Gyumri in the northwest part of the country, but on Monday the Armenian Ambassador to Moscow, Vardan Toganyan, has said the escalation of fighting with Azerbaijan has not reached that point yet. Russia's TASS, however, has underscored that this remains a distinct possibility at a moment Armenia has reported at least 31 of its troops killed in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh border region, which it says its forces are protecting from Azerbaijan's shelling and aggression: According to him, Yerevan and Moscow continue to boost defense cooperation. "We believe that should the need arise, we will request Russia [for additional military assistance]," the envoy pointed out. "As of today, we don’t think that we need additional troops or other forces," he added. "However, we do believe that Russia has a major role in the Caucasus and is capable of using political methods to put an end to bloodshed," Toganyan emphasized.Putin held a phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over the situation which began this weekend in the historically restive autonomous region which though claimed by Azerbaijan (and internationally recognized as such), declared independence in 1991 as an Armenian ethnic enclave. President Trump also weighed in, calling for an immediate halt to fighting and deescalation of tensions. Congressional leaders have also condemned the violence.
Deadly Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes unlikely to cause an oil spike, analyst says - - Deadly clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan are unlikely to result in major disruptions to energy production and supplies, analysts say, despite the region being a critical corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to the global markets. "There is not really much anticipation that this will boil over into something more serious for oil and commodity markets," "If the geopolitical premium is not already in the price, I don't think we're going to see much reaction here on in," Bell added, despite a worry that recent clashes could impact production or pipeline facilities, which have been subject to illegal taps, attack and sabotage during periods of heightened tension in the past. The clashes between the two former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus are the latest flare-up of a long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region of Azerbaijan run by ethnic Armenians. At the weekend, Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, but Azerbaijan said it had responded to Armenian shelling, according to NBC News, which has not been able to independently confirm the number of injuries or fatalities. Azerbaijan is the 24th largest crude oil producer in the world and a significant producer of natural gas, which both account for more than 90% of Azerbaijan's exports. Its pipelines make it a strategic gateway to oil and gas in the Caspian and a growing source of energy security for Europe. Azerbaijan has three crude oil export pipelines. The largest is the 1,768-km-long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which transports crude and condensates through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. It has two main gas export pipelines, including the 693 km South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) that transports gas from the Shah Deniz field through Georgia to Turkey parallel to the BTC crude oil pipeline, according to the IEA. Even so, Bell says the risk of further military action might not be enough to prompt a commodity price spike. "I think oil markets have become very attuned and very good at pricing in what is an actual disruption to output that would prompt prices going higher," he said, suggesting that even a brief interruption to output or disruption to a pipeline would easily be recovered given the vast amount of spare crude and gas production capacity elsewhere around the world.
Armenian-Azerbaijani War Rages In South Caucasus -- On September 27, a new regional war in South Caucasus arose from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Pro-Armenian forces captured the region in the early 90s triggering an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Further development of the hostilities and the expected offensive by pro-Azerbajian forces were stopped by a Russian intervention in May of 1994. As of September 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh region and nearby areas are still under the control of Armenian forces, de-facto making it an unrecognized Armenian state – the Republic of Artsakh (more widely known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic). The 2018 political crisis in Armenia the led to a seizure of power in the country by de-facto pro-Western forces led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan which did not strengthen Armenian positions over the territorial dispute. The double standard policy of the Armenian government, which was de-facto conducting anti-Russian actions but keeping public rhetoric pro-Russian, also played its own role. For years, Russia has been the only guarantor of Armenian statehood and the only force capable to rescue it in the event of a full-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish attack. Nonetheless, the Armenian leadership did pretty well in undermining its strategic partnership with its neighbor. On the other hand, the political and economic situation in Azerbaijan was more stable. Baku also was able to secure good working relations with Russia. Together with the developing strategic partnership with Turkey, a natural historical ally of the country, and the strengthening of Turkish positions in the Greater Middle East, led to an expected attempt by Azerbaijan to restore control over the contested territories. The Azerbaijani advance started on in the morning of September 27 and as of September 28, the Azerbaijani military said that it had captured seven villages and several key heights in the Fuzuli and Jabrayil areas. The military also announced that Azerbaijan captured the Murov height of the Murovdag mountain range and established fire control of the Vardenis-Aghdar road connecting Karabakh with Armenia. The Ministry of Defense said that this will prevent the transportation of additional troops and equipment from Armenia along the route in the direction of the Kelbajar and Aghdar regions in Karabakh. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry also claimed that over 550 Armenian soldiers were killed and dozens pieces of Armenian military equipment, including at least 15 Osa air defense systems, 22 battle tanks and 8 artillery guns, were destroyed. All statements from the Armenian side about the casualties among Azerbaijani forces were denounced as fake news. Azerbaijan calls the ongoing advance a “counter-offensive” needed to put an end to Armenian ceasefire violations and to protect civilians. President Ilham Aliyev signed a martial law decree and vowed to “restore historical justice” and “restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” Turkey immediately declared its full support to Azerbaijan saying that it is ready to assist it in any way requested, including military support.
Turkey's Erdogan calls on Armenians to stand against leadership amid clashes with Azerbaijan (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday called on Armenia’s people to take hold of their future against “leadership that is dragging them to catastrophe and those using it like puppets”, following clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia on Sunday declared martial law and mobilised its male population after the clashes. Turkey has condemned Armenia for what it said were provocations against Azerbaijan. “While I call on the Armenian people to take hold of their future against their leadership that is dragging them to catastrophe and those using it like puppets, we also call on thire world to stand with Azerbaijan in their battle against invasion and cruelty,” Erdogan said on Twitter, adding that Turkey will “increasingly continue” its solidarity with Baku.
Full-Blown War In Caucuses Rising As Turkey Vows To Help Azerbaijan Take Back "Occupied" Lands - Already Azerbaijan and Armenia are locked in their worst fighting in decades in the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region. Now only three days into fighting, at least 100 people have been killed, which includes soldiers and civilians on both sides, amid tank warfare and the deployment of infantry and artillery units. There's also increasing signs of direct aerial combat.Raising the likelihood of a full-blown regional war in the Caucuses, Turkish President Erdogan's office shocked on Tuesday with a direct threat of intervention on its ally Azerbaijan's behalf:Turkey raised the spectre of full-blown war in the flashpoint Caucus region of Nagorno Karabakh on Tuesday after vowing to help its ally Azerbaijan seize the disputed territory back from Armenian control.As fighting in the region raged for a third day, Turkey said it was “fully committed” to helping Azerbaijan take back its “occupied” lands, which Azeris were driven out of during the civil war of the early 1990s.Azerbaijan fired artillery against Armenian forces on Wednesday in the biggest eruption of their decades-old conflict since the mid-1990s https://t.co/0DHlqLeZf7 pic.twitter.com/G22DxIxU6b— Reuters (@Reuters) September 30, 2020The spokesman for the Turkish president made the statements already as Azerbaijan is poised for a full-scale military incursion into Nagorno Karabakh, which would trigger a national Armenian armed forces response.Yereven already on Sunday into Monday gave a nationwide 'full troops mobilization' order, and additional forces are flooding into the breakaway region which Armenia has for decades protected, despite the territory being officially within Azerbaijan's borders.Tensions ran high between Ankara and Yerevan after on Tuesday Armenia's Defense Ministry claimed a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian SU-25. While Turkey immediately denied the claim, slamming it as "fake news" and "propaganda," Armenia the following day published photographs of wreckage it says proves the aircraft downing over Armenian airspace.
Armenian-Azeri war threatens to trigger Russia-Turkey clash - Uncontrolled military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus involving artillery, tanks, helicopters and drones have continued for a third day after fighting erupted over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sunday. It marks the bloodiest Armenian-Azeri fighting since the 1988-1994 conflict between the two former Soviet republics, which erupted in the run-up to the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. While Yerevan claims its forces have caused 500 deaths of Azeri forces, Baku says Armenian forces have lost 550. However, officials in Nagorno-Karabakh (who call it by the Armenian name Artsakh) only acknowledged that “80 servicemen were killed and nearly 120 were wounded in Artsakh” as well as four civilians. On the other hand, Baku claims 12 civilians have been killed in Armenian attacks. Russia’s Sputnik news agency reported that “hostilities are not only taking place in Karabakh, but also in other areas of Armenia and Azerbaijan.” While Azeri Defense Ministry Colonel Vagif Dargahli stated that “the 3rd Martuni motorized rifle regiment of the Armenian armed forces, stationed in Khojavand region, was destroyed,” the Armenian Defense Ministry has released a footage purportedly showing the “of the destruction of an entire Azerbaijani military unit.” Baku has declared that it will destroy Armenian S-300 missile systems if they are deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh. Though severe clashes continued yesterday, and Baku has claimed that it has seized certain villages around Nagorno-Karabakh, several Russian military experts speculated that “neither of them is capable of achieving a significant military success.” The fighting further escalated yesterday, when Armenian Defense Ministry spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan claimed that “a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet shot down an on-duty SU-25 jet of the Armenian Air Force in Armenian airspace,” killing the pilot. Both Azeri and Turkish officials rapidly denied this allegation, denouncing it as a “lie”. While Baku said that “The report alleging Armenia’s Sukhoi-25 was destroyed by an F-16 fighter is a lie,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Communications Director Fahrettin Altun told Bloomberg: “The claim that Turkey shot down an Armenian fighter jet is absolutely untrue.” He added: “Armenia should withdraw from the territories under its occupation instead of resorting to cheap propaganda tricks.”Whether or not allegations of Turkish involvement are true, it is clear that the war between these two former Soviet republics could rapidly spiral out of control, engulfing both a NATO member state, Turkey, and nuclear-armed Russia, Yerevan’s main backer. Both Turkey and Russia have bilateral military pacts with their allies in Baku and Yerevan, respectively, ensuring military support in case of a war with a third party. With Armenian officials leaving the door open to ask support from Russia and other allies, such a case would inevitably raise the prospect of an all-out regional or global war.
Russia, France denounce Turkey as Armenian-Azeri war escalates - Four days after fighting broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, tensions between the major powers are escalating. Amid reports that Turkey and Syrian Islamist militias are sending mercenaries to Azerbaijan to fight a war on Russia’s borders, the risk is growing of a clash between Russia and Turkey, launching a regional or global war. While Azeri forces do not appear to have advanced far into Nagorno-Karabakh, casualties are mounting as precision weapons rain down on towns across the region. Armenian officials said yesterday they had lost 104 troops and that at least seven civilians had been killed since the fighting began. Azeri officials gave no statistics on military losses but confirmed that 15 Azeri civilians were killed. Online videos show air and drone strikes inflicting substantial losses to military units and equipment. Armenian officials claim to have destroyed 83 drones, seven helicopters, 166 armored vehicles, one warplane and one missile battery, and to have caused 920 casualties. Azerbaijan claims to have destroyed 130 armored vehicles, 200 artillery and missile launch systems, 25 air defense missile batteries and one S-300 air defense system, while inflicting 2,300 casualties. Arayik Harutyunyan, the president of the unofficial Armenian authority in Nagorno-Karabakh, warned: “We must be prepared for a long war. … The war will end with the defeat of Azerbaijan, or at least not with a victory.” Significantly, Harutyunyan added that Iran is one of the main targets of Turkish-backed Azeri operations. He said, “I want to say that one of the targets of this war (fighting on the contact line) is Iran because this war is directed, among other things, against Iran. We are aware of regional problems related, in particular, to the north of Iran,” where there is a substantial Azeri population. Iranian officials fear separatist sentiment could emerge among Iranian Azeris in favor of possibly seceding from Iran and joining Azerbaijan. This is the bloodiest Armenian-Azeri fighting since the 1988–1994 war between the two ex-Soviet republics, which erupted shortly before the Stalinist regime dissolved the Soviet Union in 1991. It is now however deeply enmeshed in the innumerable geopolitical rivalries, imperialist wars and local ethnic conflicts that have spread across the Middle East and Central Asia in the three decades since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In particular, the war is unfolding amid a growing campaign by US imperialism to isolate and threaten both Iran and Russia. Turkish officials are aggressively supporting the ethnically-Turkic Azeris against Armenia. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called on Azeris to expel Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh and pledged that the “Turkish people stand with their Azeri brothers with all our means.” This intensifies tensions with Armenia’s main regional backer, Russia, under conditions where Russia and Turkey are already waging bloody proxy wars against each other in the civil wars triggered by NATO regime-change operations in Libya and Syria over the last decade. Armenian officials said that they are discussing military aid with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes the post-Soviet republics of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the war. On Russia’s Rossiya1 channel, he called the war “a threat to the Armenian people’s very existence.”
Turkey rejects 'superficial' Caucasus ceasefire calls - (Reuters) - Turkey rejected “superficial” demands for a ceasefire on Saturday in the South Caucasus, where it backs Azerbaijan, after a week of fierce fighting with ethnic Armenian forces in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. While Russia, the United States and France have called for an end to hostilities, regional power Turkey has staunchly supported the Azeris and has repeated that what it called Armenian “occupiers” must withdraw.Armenia said on Friday it would work with the three big powers toward a ceasefire. But Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has said they should have no role in peacemaking and on Saturday said Ankara backs the “oppressed” in the South Caucasus. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, told Italian newspaper La Stampa that Russia could play an intermediating role in a ceasefire “only if it is neutral”. “Superficial demands for an immediate end to hostilities and a permanent ceasefire will not be useful this time,” he was quoted as saying by Turkish state-run Anadolu news agency. Moscow has a defence pact with Armenia, but also good relations with Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh, where ethnic Armenians are the vast majority, said on Saturday that 51 more service personnel had been killed in the war with Azerbaijan, a sharp rise in the death toll from a week of fierce fighting.
French peace call to Armenian and Azeri leaders falls on deaf ears (Reuters) - Armenia said on Saturday it would use “all necessary means” to protect ethnic Armenians from attack by Azerbaijan, as the opposing sides pounded each other for a seventh day and the latest international peace call fell on deaf ears. Azerbaijan said Armenia bore full responsibility for the new outbreak of the decades-old conflict, which threatens to drag in regional powers such as Russia and Turkey. The death toll rose to at least 230 in the fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan that broke away from its control in the 1990s. A day after French President Emmanuel Macron phoned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev with a new proposal for mediation, the rhetoric on both sides appeared if anything to be hardening. “The president of Azerbaijan placed the entire responsibility on the leadership of Armenia for the break-off of negotiations and the armed confrontation,” Aliyev’s press service said in its summary of the call. Armenia’s armed forces have so far held back from entering the war alongside those of Nagorno-Karabakh. But Pashinyan, in a televised address, portrayed the conflict as a national struggle and compared it to the country’s war with Ottoman Turkey in the early 20th century. “This is a new Sardarapat, and each of us should be ready to dedicate himself to one aim, the name of which is victory,” he said. The Armenian foreign ministry said Armenia, as the guarantor of Nagorno-Karabakh’s security, would take “all the necessary means and steps” to prevent what it called “mass atrocities” by the forces of Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey. Both those countries have repeatedly denied the involvement of Turkish forces, as well as assertions by Armenia, Russia and France that Syrian rebels are fighting on the Azeri side. Azerbaijan hit back, saying ethnic Armenians from Syria, Lebanon, Russia, Georgia, Greece and the United Arab Emirates had been deployed or were on their way to operate as “foreign terrorist fighters” on the ethnic Armenian side.
China’s Export Machine Looks Inward as Global Risks Rise – WSJ —Chinese makers of goods for export are seeking to turn inwards and sell domestically, a pivot considered key to making the world’s second-largest economy more self-sufficient. In recent weeks, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for the country to embrace what he calls domestic circulation—a policy designed to bolster local supply chains and encourage domestic consumption to make China more resilient to future commercial or geopolitical disruption, such as the coronavirus pandemic and the U.S.-China trade war.While China’s exports have bounced back after the pandemic, the benefits have yet to wash through places such as this eastern China export hub, where struggling merchants say foreign orders remain depleted by the coronavirus.Reorienting China’s formidable export machineto sell more domestically is easier said than done, say merchants in Yiwu, a city of 1.2 million people whose Yiwu International Trade City, a vast emporium of more than 75,000 wholesale stores, contributed about 2% of China’s $2.5 trillion in exports last year.Many of the products made here, such as Christmas decorations and other low-cost, labor-intensive commodities, simply aren’t needed domestically in significant quantities. Only a small percentage of China’s 1.4 billion people are openly Christian, according to the U.S. human-rights group Freedom House.Zhang Jiying, whose company produces umbrellas primarily for export, is keen to develop Chinese markets as a hedge against future export shocks. But she acknowledges that going local will be slow and complex.“We’ve spent decades learning how to operate smoothly in overseas markets,” said Ms. Zhang, hinting at the enormity of trying to replicate those relationships back home. “Shifting to the domestic market won’t be easy. The journey will be long.”
Beijing Limits Frozen Food Imports After Multiple 'COVID Scares' -Global COVID-19 cases have breached the 33 million mark as infections continue to soar worldwide. The official death count is around one million, as China is at it again, urging domestic companies to halt frozen imports of food from countries that have been severely impacted by the pandemic due to the risk of transmission through packaging, reported Bloomberg. This isn't the first time China has tried to portray imported foods as a threat. Readers may recall, when the first post-lockdown cluster was found in Beijing and traced to a wholesale market in the southwestern parts of the city, officials there said traces of salmon tested positive. This resulted in a nationwide boycott that led to thousands of tons of imported salmon being thrown in the trash. In July, we also noted imports of shrimp from Ecuador were found to be carrying the virus, well, not the shrimp itself, but, according to China, the packaging had traces of the virus. Now the Beijing city government on Monday warned companies to avoid importing frozen food from countries where the virus is rampant. This comes after China found its first local asymptomatic infection in more than a month as two workers at a port in Qingdao city tested positive after unloading frozen seafood. In recent weeks, China halted seafood imports from two Russian vessels and a Brazilian company after the virus was found on packaging. Individual food plants in Ecuador, Brazil, and Indonesia have seen their exports to China ground to a halt as well. Bloomberg notes that "cold-storage facilities and meat-processing plants are ideal environments for the virus to thrive, there has been no concrete evidence the virus can be transmitted through food and packaging, and experts remain doubtful that it's a major threat." In August, China's top virus expert advised the government to limit imports of frozen food to mitigate the spreading of the virus. The FDA has said it's "not aware of any evidence" that links the transmission of the respiratory virus to food.
Occupation without End - The state of Jammu and Kashmir no longer exists. It was abolished by legal decree last August, when the Indian Parliament passed a bill separating the state into two “union territories,” areas directly overseen by the federal government in New Delhi. The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act also abrogated Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had offered the state legal protections—primarily, the right to elect its own assembly and this assembly’s right to determine who could or could not purchase land in Kashmir. Though these protections had been steadily watered down over the past seven decades, Kashmir no longer enjoys any political autonomy at all. It is now fully under India’s control. Or, as the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party likes to put it, “normalcy” has been restored to the region. The abrogation of Article 370 marks a new low in the history of India’s military occupation of Kashmir. Yet it would be naïve to view it as a radical break. Whatever their differences, parties from across the Indian political spectrum—the Congress, the BJP, even the ostensibly progressive Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)—have long concurred that Kashmir must be “integrated” into India. They speak of this as if it were a grave responsibility. In fact, they think of themselves as saviors. Dressing up their belligerence in tones of liberation, India’s politicians claim that the imperiled Kashmiris must be saved: from Pakistan and China, who are ever-poised to evade; from local “extremists,” hell-bent on chaos and violence; and even from democratic protesters, who simply don’t know what’s good for them. Translation: Kashmiris must be protected from their neighbors, from their freedom fighters, and, most of all, from themselves. A more honest evaluation reveals that Kashmir needs to be protected from only one thing: the Indian state. (Well, that and the Indian mass media, but the two are by now virtually indistinguishable.) Since the early 1990s, when an insurgency broke out in the Kashmir Valley, Indian soldiers have killed or disappeared more than seventy thousand people. They have forcibly taken over land, arbitrarily enforced curfews, beaten, tortured, raped, and shot democratic protesters, and they have done all this with complete impunity. Today, there are over seven hundred fifty-thousand soldiers stationed in Kashmir, and maybe some two hundred active militants. The Indian state has imprisoned politicians and civil society members and rigged election after election. Who but themselves would describe this as “democratic”? As “normal”? India claims it will end “terror” and bring “development” to the Kashmir Valley, yet Indian soldiers are the principal source of terror for locals, and Article 370 was the central reason that Jammu and Kashmir consistently posted far better development numbers than the rest of the country.
Pakistan Digital Gig Economy Surged 69% Amid COVID19 Pandemic -- Pakistan's digital gig economy has surged 69% during the COVID19 pandemic, putting the country among the world's top 4 hottest online freelancer markets, reports Payoneer, a global payments platform company based in Silicon Valley, in its latest report. Payoneer attributes it to government programs such as Punjab government's e Rozgaar program that has been offering free online courses in digital freelancing. The sudden rush to learn skills online boosted the demand for instructors. The Pakistan government filled this demand by hiring alumni of programs like e Rozgaar who were successfully participating in the gig economy. After a brief dip in January 2020, the demand for freelancers took off in February and increased by double digits each month starting in March until June when it surged 47% at the time the data was compiled by Payoneer for its report.“ Likewise, this response is reflected in the revenue figures where freelancing continued to grow year-on-year but temporarily slowing from 21 per cent growth in March to 16 per cent growth in May,” the report noted. e-Rozgaar’s latest group of graduates earned the highest ever income for a new class of the program--earning over Rs. 25 million in three months during the Covid-19 lockdown. PITB Chairman Azfar Manzoor told Profit magazine that e-Rozgaar was playing a pivotal role in curbing youth unemployment. “One factor that goes a long way to explain this is that in April, local government authorities took the initiative to rapidly shut down educational institutes as a way to contain the spread of the virus,” the report said, adding that this led to the development of a new online education system and as part of this initiative, government training programs, such as e-Rozgaar, expanded its services throughout the country, offering people a new way to enhance their professional capabilities. “The mission was to help expedite freelancing skills for thousands and enable them to earn a living in the most in-demand fields and ultimately lead to a higher employment rate,” the report highlighted. A global survey conducted by Payoneer, shows that Pakistani women freelancers are earning $22 an hour, 10% more than the $20 an hour earned by men. While Pakistani male freelancers earnings are at par with global average, Pakistani female earnings are higher than the global average for freelancers. Digital gig economy is not only helping women earn more than men but it is also reducing barriers to women's labor force participation in the country. The survey also concludes that having a university degree does not help you earn more in the growing gig economy. The survey was conducted in 2015.
Bridgestone, Total shut plants as COVID-19 layoffs sweep Europe - After receiving trillions of euros of public money from the European Union (EU) supposedly to alleviate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, French and European employers are restructuring the economy with mass layoffs and austerity plans. Last week, the Total oil group announced the conversion of its Grandpuits refinery near Paris into a “zero oil platform.” That involves 150 job losses at Total itself, and the firing of 50 temp workers and 500 employees of Total subcontractors. In mid September, the Bridgestone tire company said closing its factory in Béthune was the only option to “safeguard the competitiveness of its operations in Europe.” After having received millions of euros from the French state, supposedly to improve the Béthune factory’s competitiveness, Bridgestone declared that the plant could not face competition from Chinese tires. The corporation refused any further investment that would allow the factory to make more high-quality tires. According to well-known Paris labour lawyer Fiodor Rilov, “there is simply a determination on the company’s part to boost profitability. Bridgestone Group’s operating profits were €4 billion in 2018 and €3 billion in 2019, more than Michelin and Goodyear. … Politicians’ last-minute intervention is hypocritical and cynical. Most of the laws that ordinarily would have avoided the dismantling of a factory like Bridgestone have been dismantled. This is the product of reforms introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was the Economics minister.” After announcing the destruction of 15,000 jobs worldwide, global giant Airbus unveiled an “adaptation plan” for COVID-19 last week to the European works committee at Blagnac, near Toulouse. Airbus France presented a collective performance plan involving wage freezes and the destruction of fringe benefits (bonuses and accumulated time for holiday periods). Using European bailout funds, the French state is leading a restructuring of the economy to massively destroy jobs and companies deemed uncompetitive. It pursues a violent class policy. Bailed out with trillions taken from the public purse, the financial aristocracy and top corporate executives aim to reduce millions of workers and small businesses to poverty. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire virtually boasted that companies “will be obliged to reduce their staff. Consequently, we expect in the coming weeks and months a high number of layoffs and bankruptcies.” “When you anticipate a 50 percent drop in your turnover, your options are limited,” one economist told Europe1 radio. A government inter-ministerial delegation on industrial restructuring has recently received a large increase in its budget.
Brexit: Confrontation - 10/02/2020 - Yves Smith - EU legal action against states is a far more measured affair than, say, the US Federal government suing states. The EU had cleared its throat and said the UK needed to remove the offending sections from the Internal Markets bill by the end of September. Since that hasn’t happened, the European Commission, in its capacity as “the guardian of the treaties,” sent a letter to the UK asking for it to ‘splain itself. The key bits of President van der Leyen’s short statement:As you know, we had invited our British friends to remove the problematic parts of their draft Internal Market Bill by the end of September. This draft Bill is – by its very nature – a breach of the obligation of good faith laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement (Article 5). Moreover, if adopted as is, it will be in full contradiction to the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland. The deadline lapsed yesterday. The problematic provisions have not been removed. Therefore, this morning, the Commission has decided to send a letter of formal notice to the UK government. This is the first step in an infringement procedure. The letter invites the UK government to send its observations within a month. Now some of you may be saying, “This is silly. The UK will be done with the transition period in a few months and it can tell the EU to sod off.” That’s not correct.The UK and EU had agreed to a dispute resolution mechanism for disputes under the Withdrawal Agreement, although that isn’t the route the EU chose to pursue.Instead, the EU availed itself of the fact that the UK agreed that the European Court of Justice retains jurisdiction over the Withdrawal Agreement during the Transition Period. And as President von der Leyen set forth, the EU’s position is that the UK breached what in an US commercial contract would be the “good faith and fair dealing” requirement that is implicit in all contracts…and is explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement.And if you read Article 87 of the Withdrawal Agreement, the Commission can file a case against the UK for a breach of the Withdrawal Agreement for up to four years after the end of the Transition Period, and the ECJ has jurisdiction over those cases: If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under Part Four of this Agreement before the end of the transition period, the European Commission may, within 4 years after the end of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union in accordance with the requirements laid down in Article 258 TFEU or the second subparagraph of Article 108(2) TFEU, as the case may be. The Court of Justice of the European Union shall have jurisdiction over such cases.
More than 2,000 schools in UK hit by COVID-19 outbreaks as thousands of children and staff sent home - Almost four weeks into the full reopening of UK schools by the Conservative government and the lie that schools were ever “COVID-19 secure” has been shattered. This week, almost one in five positive tests in England were in the under-19 age group, 19.7 percent of all tests. Latest figures form the Weekly Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance report show that educational settings account for 45 percent of positive cases. Confirmed outbreaks of COVID-19 had hit 2,072 schools by noon Monday. Of these, 1,483 schools are in England, 313 Wales, 166 Scotland and 110 in Northern Ireland, according to research complied by the Tory Fibs organisation. Many schools have suffered multiple infections. Thousands of children are being sent home to self-isolate, in some cases to isolate with vulnerable parents. The government is keeping no central record of infections in schools, but the huge scale of what is being concealed was revealed by Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson. He tweeted Monday, “New infections of COVID-19 in this last week in Liverpool is 1,254, this has increased the numbers infected to approx. 5,000, it is doubling every six days. There are currently 8,000 school children at home self-isolating and over 350 teachers & staff.” All 1,700 pupils were sent home to isolate at one Liverpool school, after testing revealed 48 asymptomatic positive pupils—confirming in-school transmission—reported the Skwawkbox blog yesterday. Matt Ashton, Liverpool’s director of public health, reported that there were 242 positive coronavirus infections per 100,000 people in the week to September 24. This compares to Bolton’s 211 cases per 100,000, previously the highest rate in the UK. He said Liverpool’s cases were doubling every eight to nine days and 12.8 percent of people being tested were confirmed positive, which is classed as a high rate. There were infections in all age groups and “sharp increases” in COVID hospital admissions. He warned “increases in deaths are likely to follow.”
Lockdown child sexual abuse 'hidden by under-reporting' - A significant drop in the number of child sexual abuse cases reported to police during lockdown masks the true extent of what's happened to vulnerable children, police chiefs say.National Police Chiefs Council data shows reports in England and Wales fell by 25% between April and August, compared with the same period in 2019.But officers told BBC Newsnight this does not represent the true picture. And senior officers are warning child protection referrals will now rise.Chief Constable Simon Bailey said he suspected the 25% fall was "a false and misleading picture" of what children may have experienced during those months.
- 'Worryingly low number' of at-risk children in school
- Online child abuse rising during lockdown
- Child sex abuse charity sees 50% rise in referrals
"Those children that would have been exposed to those adverse experiences during lockdown, it is only going to emerge when they spend time within the safe environment of a school, in contact with their teachers, who are very, very good and adept at identifying those signs - the indicators that something is not right within that child's life," he said.Supt Chris Truscott, of South Wales Police, agreed there were limited opportunities during lockdown for vulnerable children to disclose harmful behaviour, which would start to come to light only now schools were back.He too expected an increase in referrals officers would have had no way of identifying during lockdown."If they were vulnerable before the pandemic, then the likelihood is that vulnerability will have increased over that period of time," Supt Truscott said."So I think what we are likely to see is that trickle effect turning more into a river type effect where all of that six months of lockdown experiences which children perhaps have been through [are] aired."
The new 10 p.m. curfew on UK pubs, bars, and restaurants will 'devastate' the industry, owners say. 'It's hard to understand how this is the solution to fighting the disease.' - England's new 10 p.m. curfew at pubs, bars, and restaurants — designed to push down COVID-19 cases — is "another crushing blow" to struggling businesses now facing closure, owners have said. Nearly a quarter (23%) of members of the UK's biggest pub and hospitality trade bodies expect to fail in the next three months unless the government gives them more support, a survey by market research company CGA shows — and the curfew "will only make the situation worse," the British Beer and Pubs Association (BBPA) said. One in eight hospitality staff have already been made redundant, the survey said. Two in five adults said they will go out less often as a result of curfew, according to a CGA survey carried out immediately after the announcement. The curfew will "devastate" the sector, said Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the BBPA, describing it as "particularly heart-breaking" for pubs in areas with low infection rates, such as Reading, Bristol, and Cambridge. Kate Nicholls, CEO of the trade body UKHospitality, described the restrictions as "another crushing blow" for struggling hospitality businesses, adding that it is "now inevitable that the sector will struggle long into 2021." The government introduced new lockdown measures in England on Monday as coronavirus cases in the country rose towards what scientists fear will be a second peak. This included a 10 p.m. curfew for pubs, bars, and restaurants, and compulsory table service from September 24. The curfew also covers other leisure sites such as casinos, social clubs, and funfairs. Nicholls said that it is "hard to understand how these measures are the solution to fighting the disease." She added that the curfews in north England "merely damaged business and cost jobs."
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