Fed Vice Chair Makes "Shocking" Admission: Fed May Never Be Able To Stop Manipulating The Market - Yesterday, San Fran Fed president Mary Daly made a stunning admission: just in case there was any confusion, the Fed knows that it has - and continues to blow - an asset bubble making "a few" who own stocks uber-rich, but the economy is now so reliant on the Fed liquidity firehose that the moment the Fed threatened to pop this bubble, which some have estimated to be around $90 trillion in liquidity, would result in economic devastation and leave millions without a job. "I am not willing to trade millions of jobs for people who need a ladder rung up in order to keep the stock market from going up for a few who have those holdings," Daly said while answering questions following a speech on - what else - racial inequality at a virtual event Tuesday hosted by the University of California, Irvine. Well, it appears that the Fed makes dramatic revelations in two, because just one day after Daly admitted that the Fed is trapped, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, made an even more shocking - or rather "shocking" as we have said for the past decade that this is the case - admission, when he said that the Treasury market is now so large that the U.S. central bank may have to continue to be involved to keep it functioning properly. That's right: following its decade-long attempt to "stimulate inflation" by cutting rates, something which we showed is deflationary, and which the Fed did by manipulating bond yields through ZIRP and QE, the Fed only now realizes that if the central bank steps away, everything will crash and yields will explode higher, similar to what happened to repo rates last September when clearing rates briefly hit 10% in a market that was seen as Fed-less. In short, there is no longer a market, there are only centrally-planned transactions which can only happen with the explicit blessing of the Fed... which can pull its backstops on a whim and crash trillions in assets in a nanosecond. Speaking at a virtual panel conversation on the future of central banking hosted by the Hoover Institute, Quarles said that "it may be that there is a simple macro fact that the Treasury market being so much larger than it was even a few years ago, much larger than it was a decade ago and now really much larger than it was even a few years ago, that the sheer volume there may have outpaced the ability of the private market infrastructure to support stress of any sort there."
Fed’s Rosengren Says Pre-Pandemic Risk Taking Will Likely Slow Recovery Effort – WSJ - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston leader Eric Rosengren on Thursday renewed his longstanding concern that long periods of very low interest rates can exacerbate economic troubles when a downturn arrives. Mr. Rosengren’s remarks didn’t appear to be a direct criticism of the policies now in place at the Fed as it seeks to help the economy navigate the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank has set its short-term target rate at near zero levels and has signaled it expects it to stay there until at least 2023, as the economy works...
The Fed Wants the Public to Know It Can Withhold Information Under an Executive Order and Defy Subpoenas from Courts and Congress - Pam Martens - The United States is experiencing the worst pandemic since 1918. The U.S. economy is experiencing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. And the general public is attempting to vote in the most important presidential election of a lifetime with obstacles like fake ballot boxes, 5-hour wait lines, and destroyed mail-sorting machines. What is the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, doing with its free time at this critical moment? It’s rewriting its rules for responding to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests from the public and media.After revising the Fed’s own FOIA rules earlier this year, the Fed is now rewriting the FOIA rules for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). That just happens to be the entity in charge of sluicing that cumulative $9 trillion to trading houses on Wall Street from September 17, 2019 through March of this year. The Fed has yet to release one detail about what specific trading houses got the money and how much each got. But the Fed is very likely contemplating the day that it is sued for that information or Congress or the courts issue subpoenas.Yesterday, the Fed released the details of what it is proposing in changes to its FOIA rules for the FOMC. The public will have 60 days to submit a comment letter. (Comments from the public on the proposal can be emailed toFOMCregs.comments@FRB.gov – include “Part 271 Rules Regarding Availability of Information” in the subject line of the message.) This might be an excellent time for Americans to tell the Fed just what they think about its history of secrecy and stonewalling. For a primer on that history, see our article: Why Americans Don’t Trust the Fed: It’s Too Damn Secretive. While the Fed attempts to give the impression that it is merely shuffling around language that already exists under law, what does pop out is that it is accentuating that it can withhold information based on an “Executive Order.” Has President Donald Trump issued such an Executive Order to the Fed? The revised paragraph will read as follows:“§ 271.15 Exemptions from disclosure. (a) Types of records exempt from disclosure. Pursuant to 5 U.S.C. 552(b), the following records of the Committee are exempt from disclosure under this part. (1) Any information that is specifically authorized under criteria established by an executive order to be kept secret in the interest of national defense or foreign policy and is in fact properly classified pursuant to the executive order.”The Fed is also adding a new section, §271.3, which describes the process for certification and service of subpoenas. Is the Fed contemplating subpoenas under a new Congress next year? According to the Fed’s own website, it has not released transaction level data on three of its Section 13(3) emergency lending programs: the Primary Dealer Credit Facility; the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. Under Section 1101 of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, it was required to provide that information to the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee within seven days, with regular updates.Section 1103 of Dodd-Frank requires 13(3) funding facility data to be publicly released a year after the facility is terminated or two years after lending has ceased, whichever comes first. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly testified before Congress that the Fed would be providing full transparency now on these programs. The Fed would appear to be getting its ducks in a row for when the lawsuits and subpoenas start to fly.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of Oct 11th. The seven day average is down 65% from last year (35% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 10, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." The 7 day average for New York is still off 59% YoY, and down 18% in Florida. There was a surge in restaurant dining around Labor Day - hopefully mostly outdoor dining. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last few weeks, and were at $11 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week in the early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Hotel occupancy is currently down 29.6% year-over-year. There was some recent boost from natural disasters - perhaps 1 or 2 percentage points total based on previous disasters - but so far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 2nd, gasoline supplied was only off about 6.0% YoY (about 94.0% of normal). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through October 10th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 57% of the January level. It is at 50% in Los Angeles, and 59% in Houston. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This data is through Friday, October 9th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.Business Cycle Indicators, 16 October - Menzie Chinn - With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 10/16 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. Industrial production fell -0.6% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus of +0.5%. The series was revised upward in August, so the level of industrial production was still higher than the earlier estimate for August. Nonetheless, if it’s the trajectory that’s of interest, then this is not good news. Note that this decline is not driven by mining and/or utilities output decline. Manufacturing production fell -0.3 m/m vs. consensus of +0.7%. Bloomberg consensus as of today for the October employment figures is 850K new jobs (as shown in blue square in Figure 1). I wonder if this number takes into account the surge in Covid-19 around the country. If one looks at the Covid-19 hospitalization figures, one has to wonder if employment growth — such as it is — can be maintained. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark teal, left log scale), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 10/16 (light blue square) and Covid-19 hospitalizations through 10/15 (brown, right log scale). October hospitalizations log linearly interpolated from first half of October. Source: BLS, Covid Tracking Project accessed 10/16, and author’s calculations.
Q3 GDP Forecasts - From Merrill Lynch:We are tracking 33% qoq saar for 3Q GDP growth. [Oct 16 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q3 consumption growth estimate due to the stronger-than-expected September retail sales report. However, this morning’s utilities and goods production data were softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +35% (qoq ar). [Oct 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report; The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 13.8% for 2020:Q3 and 3.6% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 16 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.2 percent on October 16, unchanged from October 9 after rounding. After this week’s data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 48.4 percent to 47.0 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 37.0 percent to 37.3 percent. [Oct 16 estimate]It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 35% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 7.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 3.3% from Q4 2019.The following graph illustrates this decline.This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.2% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The black arrow shows what a 35% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3. Even with a 35% annualized increase (about 7.8% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 3.3% from Q4 2019; a slightly smaller decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.
U.S. Budget Gap Tripled in Fiscal 2020 as Government Battled Pandemic – WSJ —The U.S. budget deficit tripled in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday, as the government battled a global pandemic that plunged the country into a recession.The budget gap in the fiscal year 2020 widened to $3.1 trillion from $984 billion a year earlier, the nonpartisan CBO said. As a share of economic output, the annual deficit reached 15.2%, the largest since 1945, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II.A surge of federal spending to combat the coronavirus and cushion the U.S. economy, coupled with a drop-off in federal revenues amid widespread shutdowns and layoffs, contributed to the widening deficit this year, which in turn might have helped drive the national debt to more than 100% of gross domestic product.Receipts totaled $3.4 trillion, a 1% decline from the previous year, with much of the drop occurring since March, when the virus began spreading across the country. Outlays hit $6.5 trillion, a 47% increase, as the government ramped up spending on emergency loans for small businesses, enhanced jobless benefits and stimulus payments for American households. Since March, Congress has approved roughly $4 trillion in new spending, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget—including money for vaccine research and virus testing, extra weekly jobless benefits, one-time $1,200 stimulus payments to households, aid to states and cities, and payroll grants for small businesses. The unprecedented government stimulus has helped keep households and businesses afloat during the initial months of the recession that began in February, boosting incomes and supporting consumer spending. From April through September, federal spending was twice as high as it was in the same six-month period a year earlier. Unemployment benefits soared to $457 billion in the second half of fiscal 2020 from $14 billion during the same period of the previous year. Spending for Medicaid, Social Security and nutrition assistance also climbed.In the first half of fiscal 2020, federal income rose 6%, thanks to a strong economy and low unemployment. From April through October, however, receipts fell 7% as the virus brought economic activity to a standstill, businesses shut down and more than 20 million workers lost their jobs.Individual income and payroll taxes fell 7% in the second half of the year, while corporate tax receipts declined 21%, in part due to measures Congress enacted to help reduce taxes this year for businesses facing revenue losses.Federal debt in the fiscal year 2020 likely hit 102%, exceeding the size of the economy for the full fiscal year for the first time in more than 70 years, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. By another measure, the debt already exceeded the size of the economy during the April through June quarter, when it hit 105.2%, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show.
U.S. Budget Gap Tripled to Record $3.1 Trillion in Fiscal 2020, Treasury Says – WSJ —The U.S. budget deficit tripled to a record $3.1 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 as the government battled the global coronavirus pandemic that plunged the country into a recession, has taken more than 217,000 American lives and thrown millions out of work.As a share of economic output, the budget gap in fiscal year 2020 hit roughly 16.1%, the largest since 1945, the Treasury Department said Friday, when the country was financing massive military operations to help end World War II.Federal debt totaled 102% of gross domestic product, the first time it has exceeded the size of the economy for the full fiscal year in more than 70 years, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That has put the U.S. in a league with Greece, Italy and Japan among the most heavily indebted nations.Senate Republicans, citing the mounting debt, have balked at a White House proposal to spend another $1.88 trillion and House Democrats’ $2.2 trillion bill to add to aid to counter the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression. Many economists and Federal Reserve officials argue restoring growth should be the first priority, and that worries about closing the deficit can come later.“Unprecedented times call for unprecedented deficits,” said William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a centrist Washington think tank. “Today’s deficit figure is the result of six months of fighting the pandemic and its economic fallout.”The International Monetary Fund this week saidglobal public debt is likely to approach a record 100% of output but urged policy makers to maintain spending to help vulnerable groups and promote a strong recovery. The IMF said the global recession won’t be as deep as it projected earlier, thanks in part to massive deficit spending by advanced and major emerging-market economies.“The IMF’s message from these meetings is clear: Avoid premature withdrawal—pulling the plug too soon risks serious, self-inflicted harm,” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters Thursday as finance ministers and central bankers assembled virtually for the annual meetings of the fund and the World Bank.To cover the budget shortfall, the Treasury has sold a flood of new securities, boosting total government debt held by the public to $21 trillion, a 25% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year. Investors have shown scant worry about the deficit. U.S. government bonds were little changed Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ticking up to 0.743% from 0.730% Thursday, according to Tradeweb. Yields rose in the morning following better-than-expected retail sales data but fell after a disappointing report on industrial production.
Trump, Pelosi play blame game on impasse over coronavirus relief A war of words broke out Sunday on who was to blame for the stalemate on another coronavirus relief package that both political parties say they want. President Donald Trump on Sunday said Republicans want a deal but that Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a hurdle to reaching one. For her part, Pelosi told her colleagues that the latest Republican $1.8 trillion offer was “wholly insufficient.” There was no sign of talks between Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the talks were not dead. Kudlow said there might be talks Sunday but if not, then “certainly this week.” The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that “several” Senate Republicans complained about the latest White House offer in a call with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Mnuchin. Kudlow waved away concern about GOP defections. “If we can get this thing settled on the Democrat side, we will get it settled on the Republican side,” he said. “The Ds are holding this up,” Kudlow added. House Democrats have approved a $2.2 trillion plan. Mnuchin and Pelosi last talked on Friday.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week urged lawmakers to pass a broad relief measure. In her letter, Pelosi said there was still disagreement over the health care portion of the legislation.Republicans don’t like the language in the White House offer that expands the Affordable Care Act subsidies for people who have lost jobs during the pandemic.
Pelosi, citing 'leverage' over Trump, holds strong to $2.2T in COVID-19 aid -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday shot down entreaties from some Democrats to cut a $1.8 trillion deal with the White House on coronavirus relief, arguing that President Trump's pleas for Congress to "go big" have given her leverage to hold out for more aid. "I appreciate the, shall we say, a couple people saying, ‘Take it, take it, take it,’" Pelosi said in a phone conference with Democrats, according to source on the call. "Take it? Take it? Even the president is saying, ‘Go big or go home.’" Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been in near-daily talks in search of an elusive stimulus agreement, even as the prospect of a deal before the Nov. 3 elections has grown dimmer by the day.Mnuchin last week had offered a $1.8 trillion package, up from an earlier proposal of $1.6 trillion, prompting a growing number of House Democrats to urge the Speaker to come down from her $2.2 trillion proposal, which the House approved on Oct. 1. That figure was already a reduction from the Democrats' $3.4 trillion HEROES Act, passed by the House in May. Most of those pleas have come from the Democrats' moderate wing, particularly from vulnerable lawmakers facing tough reelections next month. Yet even a few liberals have emerged in recent days to press Pelosi to accept the White House's latest offer. "Dems can’t wait for the perfect deal," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a prominent member of the Progressive Caucus, tweeted Tuesday. "We have a moral obligation to get folks relief, now."
McConnell to force vote on 'targeted' coronavirus relief bill next week - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that the Senate will vote on a "targeted" coronavirus relief bill next week that will include more aid for small businesses hit hard by the fallout of the pandemic. The Senate is out of town this week after an outbreak of the coronavirus among its members but will return to Washington, D.C., on Monday. “When the full Senate returns on October 19th, our first order of business will be voting again on targeted relief for American workers, including new funding for the PPP," McConnell said in a statement, referring to the Paycheck Protection Program. McConnell, during a stop in Kentucky on Tuesday, said the bill would be "highly targeted" and authorize around $500 billion. The bill, he noted, would include money for schools, hospitals and protections from coronavirus-related lawsuits. "I made some news today. We're going to go back to the floor next week again with a proposal more narrowly targeted with a significant amount of money. I can remember when a half a trillion dollars ... was real money," McConnell said in Kentucky. "I'm going to try next week one more time. ... I want to give our friends on the other side one more chance," he added. McConnell's decision to offer his own bill comes as several of his vulnerable incumbents have shown they are eager to make progress on stimulus legislation. Senate Republicans panned the latest $1.8 trillion offer from the White House, which was made as part of negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). President Trump doubled down on a higher price tag for any agreement, tweeting on Tuesday: "STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!" Republicans initially offered a $1.1 trillion coronavirus package in July, but McConnell warned at the time that it could garner up to 20 "no" votes and was never given a vote on the Senate floor. Fifty-two GOP senators then voted for an approximately $500 billion bill, but it was blocked by Democrats. McConnell was quizzed on the coronavirus relief negotiations during a debate with Democratic opponent Amy McGrath on Monday night where he blamed Democrats for the inability to get a deal on a sweeping package that would offer aid to Americans and businesses. Pelosi has "been demanding we throw $3 trillion at this problem in a way that is largely in many respects unrelated to solving the problem," McConnell said during the debate, adding that Pelosi “has been totally unreasonable and not interested in getting an outcome.”
Nancy Pelosi, Under Fire From Left and Right, Is Losing the PR Battle Over Stimulus - House Speaker Nancy Pelsoi is losing the PR battle over stimulus as she faces pressure from the left and right to capitulate to Republicans' demand for a smaller price tag. As the months-long stimulus stalemate continues, progressive Democrats on Wednesday urged their congressional leader to pass another relief package "now" to help the millions of Americans struggling to pay rent and afford food amid the pandemic. Their calls further adds to the pressure Pelosi has faced from moderate Democrats in recent weeks to settle for a deal with Republicans and the Trump administration. Pelosi rejected the most recent White House $1.8 trillion offer this week, saying it was "insufficient in meeting families' needs." While file-and-rank Republicans also rejected the deal that they considered too expensive and out of touch with conservative values, it was Pelosi who faced the media's ire. CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer grilled Pelosi on Tuesday night about her refusal to accept Trump's offer. Blitzer noted that Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna of California and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang had both recently said Americans cannot wait until February for economic relief. "They are not negotiating this situation," Pelosi responded. "They have no idea of the particulars, they have no idea of what the language is here." The contentious interview ended with Pelosi calling Blitzer a Republican apologist. "You really don't know what you're talking about," she said angrily, before insisting that Republicans should accept the Democrat's proposal if they want to help the American people. Hours before the interview, Pelosi resisted calls from within her own party to settle for $1.8 trillion during a phone conversation with Democrats. She invoked President Donald Trump's plea for Congress to "go big" on another stimulus package as justification for her decision to hold out for a larger amount. "Take it? Take it? Even the president is saying, 'Go big or go home,'" the Democratic leader said. "We really need to have an agreement, but we cannot have an agreement by just folding." Americans blamed Republicans more for the stimulus stalemate in September, but the latest poll on the issue, released Thursday, showed that the tide is turning against Democrats. Thirty-five percent of voters surveyed by Morning Consult between October 6 and 7 said Democrats were responsible for the inability to pass further relief and 32 percent placed the blame on Trump. Just 23 percent pointed to Republicans. Polling indicates that the last party to reject a stimulus offer is often also stuck with the blame. The survey was taken shortly after the Trump administration offered $1.6 trillion, but Pelosi declined to budge from her then $2.2 trillion position. Last month, Democrats also blocked a roughly $500 billion Republican plan in the Senate. With just weeks left until Election Day, Pelosi's strategy to stand firm on her demand for a larger and broader relief package carries risks. As negotiations with the Trump administration continues to stall, Republican leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday said the Senate will vote on a limited COVID stimulus bill this month.
Stalled stimulus talks put bankers on edge— Banks so far have been able to avoid much pain from the pandemic, but the decision by the Trump administration and congressional leaders to put coronavirus relief negotiations on the back burner is making some in the industry nervous. The economic recovery has shown encouraging signs since widespread business closures and stay-at-home orders this past spring depressed revenues and led to a historic rise in unemployment. But some of that turnaround may be attributed to the massive stimulus package Congress enacted in March. With relief coffers running dry, coronavirus cases still rising in many parts of the country without an available vaccine, and regional restrictions on business reopenings still in place, bankers are beginning to worry about the government shifting its priorities. “The underlying economy in Main Street across America, I think, remains relatively strong. The million-dollar question is how long … restrictions on businesses and gatherings, how long it goes on," said Noah Wilcox, chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America and CEO of the $278 million-asset Grand Rapids State Bank in Grand Rapids, Minn. President Trump tweeted on Oct. 6 that he was rejecting a $2.4 trillion stimulus plan offered by House Democrats and was encouraging Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to focus instead on confirming Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. For his part, McConnell said Tuesday that the Senate would vote on a targeted aid plan later this month, which is much less ambitious than the aid package supported by Democrats. The Republican plan would amount to roughly $500 billion in aid, including additional funds for Paycheck Protection Program. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has already rejected a $1.8 trillion stimulus proposal from the White House. “When the full Senate returns on Oct. 19, our first order of business will be voting again on targeted relief for American workers, including new funding for the PPP," McConnell said Tuesday. "Unless Democrats block this aid for workers, we will have time to pass it before we proceed as planned to the pending Supreme Court nomination." Bankers say that it is imperative that the White House and lawmakers get back to the negotiating table to approve additional economic stimulus as the pandemic continues to keep people out of work. Some in the industry want more federal aid available for businesses to maintain employment, similiar to the objective of the PPP.
White House Agrees to Democrats’ National Coronavirus-Testing Strategy – WSJ —Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday the administration was prepared to meet Democrats’ demands for a national coronavirus-testing strategy as part of a larger economic relief package.In an interview with CNBC, Mr. Mnuchin said he planned to tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) Thursday that the White House fundamentally agreed with language Democrats have proposed for the testing strategy, which has become a sticking point in ongoing negotiations over another aid bill.An agreement over a national testing plan would remove the biggest, but not the only, concern Democrats had raised last weekend with the White House’s latest $1.88 trillion proposal. It could raise pressure on Mrs. Pelosi to reach an agreement with President Trump less than three weeks before the presidential election. Still, even if Mr. Mnuchin and Mrs. Pelosi strike a deal, the GOP-controlled Senate has already signaled it may reject it.“When I speak to Pelosi today I’m going to tell her that we’re not going to let the testing issue stand in the way, that we’ll fundamentally agree with their testing language subject to some minor issues,” he said.Mr. Trump, continuing his push for a stimulus deal, said Thursday he would support more than the $1.88 trillion administration offer. “Go big or go home,” he said on Fox Business Network. The president blamed Democrats for inaction on a deal, though some Republicans have balked at spending that much.Mr. Mnuchin said the issue over testing “is getting overblown,” adding that the administration has agreed to include $75 billion that Democrats’ proposed for coronavirus testing and contact tracing and an additional $28 billion for vaccine development and distribution.Discussions in recent days have focused on the language around the testing strategy, he said. The White House had proposed using language included in a separate testing bill that had bipartisan support in the House and Senate, but Mr. Mnuchin said the administration was willing to acquiesce to the language requested by Mrs. Pelosi to move negotiations along.He also emphasized that a priority for the White House was repurposing roughly $300 billion that lawmakers authorized earlier this year in the March Cares Act that hasn’t been spent. The administration has proposed reallocating the money for another round of emergency aid to small businesses and for payroll support for struggling airlines.“I can literally get that money out the door this week,” he said.
McConnell shoots down $1.8 trillion coronavirus deal, breaking with Trump | TheHill - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday shot down the prospect of a coronavirus deal totaling between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion — the goalposts of the current talks between Democrats and the White House. McConnell's comments, made to reporters in Kentucky, underscore the divisions between President Trump and Senate Republicans on a fifth coronavirus package, with the GOP leader preparing to force a vote on a $500 billion bill next week. “I don’t think so. That’s where the administration is willing to go. My members think half a trillion dollars, highly targeted, is the best way to go," McConnell said, asked about the prospect of a deal totally between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion. McConnell added that while a reporter was correct that there are negotiations ongoing between Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the White House about the higher price range, "that's not what I'm going to put on the floor." McConnell's comments come as President Trump signaled on Thursday that he was willing to go higher than $1.8 trillion in negotiations with Democrats. “Absolutely, I would. I would pay more. I would go higher. Go big or go home, I said it yesterday. Go big or go home,” Trump said during a phone interview on Fox Business on Thursday morning. But McConnell is set to put a substantially smaller bill on the floor next week. The GOP plan, which McConnell has said will be around $500 billion, will include another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, money for testing and hospitals, and protections for businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits. Senate Republicans have struggled to get on the same page as the White House when it comes to the coronavirus negotiations. Senate Republicans offered a $1.1 trillion coronavirus package in late July but McConnell warned at the time that up to 20 GOP senators could vote "no." They then unveiled a smaller bill in September that authorized about $500 billion that 52 of the 53 GOP senators supported. McConnell has publicly warned that just because Democrats and the White House get a deal does not mean he would agree to put it on the floor. Speaking to reporters during a recent press conference, McConnell said that he would "take a look at it and see if I can sell that to Senate Republicans." Senate Republicans panned the $1.8 trillion price tag during a phone call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows last weekend. One source familiar with the call said that there were "significant concerns raised with the price tag."
GOP Is Focused on Sabotaging a Potential Biden Administration Amid a Pandemic - Alexis Goldstein - As Donald Trump continues to slide in the polls, losing support among seniors and in battleground states, Senate Republicans remain opposed to even a relatively narrow $1.8 trillion stimulus deal the White House wants. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be bringing an even smaller $500 billion stimulus bill to the Senate floor, where it will almost certainly fail. With so many Republican senators in tight races, one would imagine a stimulus deal would be in their favor. Their intransigence on a deal makes them look resigned not just to a Trump loss, but to a blue wave where Democrats retake the Senate. And while they remain divided over their support for a short-term stimulus, both the White House and Senate Republicans are using the levers available to them to blunt any economic recovery during a Joe Biden administration. The White House is only interested in measures that would impact the election, and nothing after it. This is evidenced by the expiration dates on two key administrative actions: the suspension on federal student loan payments and the evictions moratorium both end on December 31, 2020. This means many people will be ringing in 2021 with an eviction, garnishment of their wages to pay a defaulted student loan, or by re-starting student loan payments in the middle of the pandemic. If Biden wins in November, Trump will have set up a fraught three-week gap before the new administration can act again to stop evictions and student loan payments. If Trump or Education Secretary Betsy DeVos don’t act to extend the student loan suspension into January 2021 or later, low-income borrowers in default are at risk of having their tax refunds seized in 2021. The end to the federal student loan suspension will also mean the student debt collection machine will get turned back on January 1, 2021. While a Biden administration would likely act to re-suspend student loan payments, the Trump administration is sabotaging the possibility for continuity and creating the potential for real chaos and turmoil by ending the suspension three weeks before Inauguration Day. The federal evictions moratorium is also set to expire on New Year’s Eve 2020. In addition to teeing up a flood of evictions in 2021, should Biden win, the Trump administration is actually already working to undercut its own 2020 actions. The Trump administration just issued newguidance on its eviction moratorium that allows for eviction proceedings to begin, even though the eviction itself cannot be executed until January. Diane Yentel, president and CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, noted that this helps landlords who may want to start eviction proceedings in October, because it allows them to pressure or intimidate renters into leaving sooner. She points out that many rentersfear eviction proceedings or “can’t participate in court proceedings due to accessibility issues,” and that this new guidance will create “new opportunities for landlord intimidation.” The Trump administration appears uninterested in helping renters in the new year, but is also actively sabotaging even the protections they created.
Pelosi: Mnuchin says Trump will lobby McConnell on big COVID-19 deal -Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested Thursday that President Trump will press Senate Republicans to accept a massive coronavirus relief package if a deal with Democrats emerges, according to the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Trump in recent days has urged Congress to "go big" as lawmakers weigh another round of emergency stimulus, indicating Thursday that he's told Mnuchin to seek more funding than the $1.8 trillion proposal offered by the White House last week. Yet Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has rejected such a high figure, citing opposition from a long list of conservatives in his conference. McConnell is expected to stage a vote next week on a much smaller package, in the range of $500 billion. On a call with Mnuchin on Thursday afternoon, Pelosi raised concerns about McConnell being a roadblock to a larger aid package, even if Democrats and the White House can seal an agreement. The Treasury secretary, according to Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill, assured her Trump would intervene to lobby the majority leader on behalf of the legislation. "The Speaker also raised Leader McConnell’s comments today about not being willing to put a comprehensive package on the Senate floor. The Secretary indicated that the President would weigh in with Leader McConnell should an agreement be reached," Hammill tweeted. Trump's impact on the fate of a still-elusive deal remains to be seen. Republicans on Capitol Hill have, throughout Trump's tenure, mobilized behind their Oval Office ally on a host of legislation, both mundane and controversial. Yet with Trump trailing in the polls — and McConnell fighting to save vulnerable GOP senators and keep his majority — cracks in the facade have begun to emerge. McConnell on Thursday said in no uncertain terms that he won't call a vote on a stimulus bill anywhere near the size Pelosi and Mnuchin are discussing. "That’s where the administration is willing to go," McConnell told local reporters in Kentucky. "My members think half a trillion dollars, highly targeted, is the best way to go." The GOP divisions arrive as Pelosi and Mnuchin continue to seek a bipartisan coronavirus deal before the Nov. 3 elections. For almost a week, the sides have remained roughly $400 billion apart, with Pelosi sticking to the Democrats' $2.2 trillion proposal, passed by the House earlier in the month, and Mnuchin offering $1.8 trillion last week. The sides have also disagreed on specific legislative language dictating how the funding will be allocated. But on Thursday, the pair made some headway: Mnuchin said he had largely agreed to Pelosi's demand for a national testing strategy, featuring $75 billion for testing and tracing, as well as specific language on that topic — "subject to some minor issues." "I think, quite frankly, we won't need to spend all that money, but we're happy to take the money," he said in an interview with CNBC. Hammill said the White House will deliver that offer formally on Friday.
Graham: Congress should go 'big and smart' on COVID-19 package - Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that Congress should go “big and smart” on the next coronavirus relief package. During a pre-recorded interview on “Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren,” to air Sunday, Graham said that he thinks more money is needed, but not with certain policy provisions included in the House proposal. “The $2.2 trillion coming out of the House has a mandate for ballot harvesting. What's that got to do COVID?” Graham said. “And the $1,200 payment, which I support, doesn't require a Social Security number to get it, so a lot of the money would go to illegal immigrants.” Graham said that everyone agrees on setting up a Paycheck Protection Program to allow small businesses to get a forgivable loan, and that there’s a lot of “common ground” on helping schools. He also said he was “willing to do some unemployment,” but not $600 per week. “There are some Republicans who don't want to spend anymore,” Graham said. “I think we need more money, but we don't need policy provisions like the House has.” Following his stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for COVID-19 treatment, President Trump issued a series of conflicting messages on Twitter about a coronavirus relief package, first canceling talks with congressional leadership and then finally telling the legislature to "go big or go home" on a price tag for the bill. Graham told Van Susteren that the president's right to want a bigger package, “but it's got to be big and smart.” Graham has previously expressed support for another round of coronavirus aid. Following Trump's erratic series of tweets about the stimulus package earlier this month, the South Carolina senator called on the president to “look at the House Problem-Solvers bipartisan $1.5 trillion stimulus relief package" as a good place to start. "Time to come together to help America deal with COVID as we move toward a vaccine," Graham tweeted at the time. Passage of a stimulus package could bode well for Graham in his bid for reelection. The senator, a staunch Trump ally, is facing a competitive re-election bid against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. The Democrat raised $57 million in the third quarter this year, an all-time record for a U.S. Senate candidate. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll, Graham is leading his opponent by 6 points in the race for the state’s senate seat, 1.5 points out of the survey's margin of error. And earlier this month, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday that he thinks Trump could get enough GOP senators to support an agreement struck by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin if they’re able to land one before election day.
Treasury Department Encouraged Banks to Prioritize Existing Customers for PPP Loans, House Panel Says – WSJ - —The Treasury Department privately encouraged lenders to prioritize existing customers when issuing loans for the federal government’s small-business coronavirus aid program, according to a report released Friday by a Democratic-led congressional oversight subcommittee.The Treasury Department’s actions were one of several ways the Trump administration and several large banks put underserved businesses, including those owned by women and minorities, at a disadvantage when applying for the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program, said the report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Banks and other lenders issued PPP loans, and the Small Business Administration guaranteed them.The Treasury Department, which helped run the program along with the Small Business Administration, denied to the subcommittee that it had told banks to prioritize existing customers, the report said.The report said that documents obtained by the subcommittee show the Treasury Department instructed PPP lenders to “go to their existing customer base” when issuing the loans.“We encouraged all banks to offer loans to their existing small business customers, but no Treasury official ever suggested that banks should do so to the exclusion of new customers,” a Treasury Department spokesperson said. “The subcommittee’s conclusion to the contrary is false and unsupported by its own record.”The SBA had no immediate comment Friday. On March 28, a day after the law establishing the PPP was enacted, Rob Nichols, president of the American Bankers Association, emailed the trade group’s board about a call with Treasury officials the previous day. “Treasury would like for banks to go to their existing customer base,” said the email, according to the report. “This will allow loans to move quickly,” Mr. Nichols added.
Russia shuts down Trump admin's last-minute push to strike nuclear arms deal before election - Russia dismissed claims from the Trump administration that Moscow and Washington had reached an agreement on extending a top arms control agreement, saying it was unlikely any deal would be reached prior to the November election. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov specifically pushed back on claims from administration officials that the U.S. would extend the New START Treaty for an undetermined period of time if Russia froze its nuclear arsenal. "The US position in favor of putting a freeze [on the nuclear arsenal] has long been known to us, it is unacceptable to us. Not because we are against freezing, but because we need to deal with the problems of strategic stability as a complex," Rybakov told state run news agency RIA Novosti, according to CNN. "If the Americans need to report to their superiors something about allegedly reaching an agreement with the Russian Federation before their elections, then they will not get it," he added. The rebuke comes after U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea said on Tuesday that a “gentleman’s agreement” had been reached at the “highest levels.” "I'm hopeful that that sort of gentlemen's agreement, that arrangement, that deal that has been reached, as I said, at the highest levels will ultimately need to percolate down through their system so that my counterpart hopefully will be authorized to negotiate," he said in remarks at the Heritage Foundation Tuesday. The spat over extending the pact could hinder President Trump’s reported goal of scoring an 11th hour nuclear arms deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the Nov. 3 election. The administration had initially opposed extending the deal in favor of creating a new multilateral agreement with Russia and China, but Beijing has shot down efforts to form new agreement.
SpaceX Joins Pentagon Developing 7,500 MPH Weapons Delivery Rocket That Can Reach Anywhere On Earth In An Hour - Given Elon Musk's deepening ties to China, it's no wonder the Pentagon thought it a great time to sign a contract with SpaceX to "jointly develop a rocket" that can "deliver up to 80 tons of cargo and weaponry anywhere in the world" in just an hour's time.Tests on this rocket are expected to begin next year, according to Futurism. The rocket is expected to move weapons around the world 15 times faster than existing aircraft already do. General Stephen Lyons, head of US Transportation Command said: “Think about moving the equivalent of a C-17 payload anywhere on the globe in less than an hour.” He continued: "I can tell you SpaceX is moving very, very rapidly in this area. I'm really excited about the team that's working with SpaceX."A trip from Florida to Afghanistan, which is 7,652 miles, could be done "within about an hour" with the 7,500 MPH rocket, according to The Times. It takes conventional aircraft about 15 hours to make the same trip. The project indicates that SpaceX is leaning on military partnerships - and also indicates that the U.S. military clearly doesn't see Elon Musk as a security threats, despite his deepening ties to China (which we have detailed here). SpaceX also landed a contract last week to manufacture four missile-tracking satellites, Futurism notes.The army has also previously approached Musk's company about converting its Starlink satellites into a military navigation network. The Space Force has also said they are working closely with SpaceX after they awarded the company a contract in August.
How the US Plays Nuclear Chicken with Russia and China - Michael Klare: On August 21st, six nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortress bombers, representing approximatelyone-seventh of the war-ready U.S. B-52H bomber fleet, flew from their home base in North Dakota to Fairford Air Base in England for several weeks of intensive operations over Europe. Although the actual weapons load of those giant bombers was kept secret, each of them iscapable of carrying eight AGM-86B nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) in its bomb bay. Those six planes, in other words, could have been carrying 48 city-busting thermonuclear warheads. (The B-52H can also carry 12 ALCMs on external pylons, but none were visible on this occasion.) With such a load alone, in other words, those six planes possessed the capacity to incinerate much of western Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. The B-52 Stratofortress is no ordinary warplane. First flown in 1952, it was designed with a single purpose in mind: to cross the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean and drop dozens of nuclear bombs on the Soviet Union. Some models were later modified to deliver tons of conventional bombs on targets in North Vietnam and other hostile states, but the remaining B-52s are still largely configured for intercontinental nuclear strikes. With only 44 of them now thought to be in active service at any time, those six dispatched to the edge of Russian territory represented a significant commitment of American nuclear war-making capability. What in god’s name were they doing there? According to American officials, they were intended to demonstrate this country’s ability to project overwhelming power anywhere on the planet at any time and so remind our NATO allies of Washington’s commitment to their defense. “Our ability to quickly respond and assure allies and partners rests upon the fact that we are able to deploy our B-52s at a moment’s notice,” commented General Jeff Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe. “Their presence here helps build trust with our NATO allies… and affords us new opportunities to train together through a variety of scenarios.” While Harrigian didn’t spell out just what scenarios he had in mind, the bombers’ European operations suggest that their role involved brandishing a nuclear “stick” in support of an increasingly hostile stance toward Russia. During their sojourn in Europe, for example, two of them flew over the Baltic Sea close to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania that houses several key military installations. That September 25th foray coincided with a U.S. troop buildup in Lithuania about 65 miles from election-embattled Belarus, a Russian neighbor.
What Should Europe Expect from American Trade Policy After the Election? - Yves here. This Bruegel article describes possible changes in US trade policy under a Biden Administration. Despite campaign messaging that Team Biden will attempt to turn the clock back to 2016 (or earlier), this article makes clear why that can’t really happen. There are new facts on the ground and not just ones created by Trump. The European Union-United States trade and investment relationship remains the world’s most intensive even after Brexit. Trade between the US and the EU (minus the United Kingdom) totalled around $1 trillionin 2018, about a third larger than US ties with China. EU27/US bilateral FDI stocks surpassed $4.5 trillion, dwarfing those with China. Despite the frequently differing positions of EU members on trade policy, the EU-US relationship stood the test of time and continued to deepen. But, over the last four years, President Trump’s strictly transactional approach to trade policy, with an obsessive emphasis on reducing bilateral deficits, has amounted essentially to managed trade and is diametrically opposed to the principle of non-discrimination enshrined in multilateral trade disciplines, which Americans and Europeans worked together to establish.This is not just political opportunism, but reflects the President’s deep convictions and those of his advisors. Trump’s re-election would almost certainly reinforce the trends he established. Trump’s challenger Joe Biden is well ahead in the polls but is not certain to prevail even if Trump’s campaign is now hobbled by his COVID-19 infection. All of America’s trading partners face the question of what the change in American leadership, if it occurs, would bring. The history of the Obama-Biden administration, and Biden’s long Senate track record of supporting major trade legislation, including NAFTA, the Uruguay Round and Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China, might suggest a return to a more traditional approach in trade policy, but that expectation – if taken literally – is unrealistic. Trade policy does not exist in a vacuum, and much has changed inside and outside the United States in the last four years. We would point to three major shifts a Biden Presidency would have to confront, and which have important implications for the US relationship with the EU:
- Across the US political spectrum, China is seen as a formidable geopolitical and technological adversary. This is not new, but under Trump, relations with China have deteriorated to a cold-war level.
- The sharp secular rise in income inequality within the United States and the intensification of identity politics, driven by race, religion and socio-economic background, have resulted in unprecedented polarisation of US politics. Trump has added fuel to this previously smouldering fire.
- The economic devastation caused by COVID-19 which, among other consequences, has made the inequality and racial divisions far worse.
As might be expected, each of these issues figures prominently in Biden’s campaign manifesto. From the perspective of the European Union and its trade relationship with the United States, the three shifts mean that a Biden presidency would:
- Prioritise above all else the fixing of domestic problems, rather than trade relations (at least initially), perhaps lasting until the mid-term elections in November 2022. This would echo Obama/Biden’s first term, during which dealing with the fall-out from the Great Recession was the top priority. Taking a lesson from the 1930s, Obama/Biden resisted a relapse into protectionism, but they also placed new trade deals on the back-burner initially.
- Continue to support ‘Buy American’ policies (a relatively mild manifestation of protectionism which is widely practiced in various forms worldwide) and be less inclined to negotiate new trade agreements. When negotiating them, a Biden Administration will insist on rigorous safeguards, most importantly on those that ‘protect’ US workers.
- View trade relations through a prism of geopolitical and technological rivalry with China rather than – as was evident during the Cold War – the security umbrella of the North-Atlantic Alliance, which placed Europe higher on the list of priorities.
Comparing scenarios under a Trump or Biden victory, it is useful to consider the US-EU trade relationship in terms of, first the bilateral relationship; second, the US and EU relationships with China and third, multilateral cooperation – specifically, what to do about the crisis affecting the World Trade Organisation.
EU Wins WTO Ruling on Boeing Subsidies, Following WTO Ruling for the US on Airbus Subsidies. Tariff War On? - Yves Smith - The WTO issued a ruling in its biggest trade dispute ever: the tit for tat between Boeing and Airbus over government subsidies. Boeing started its action against Airbus in 2004; Airbus lodged its case against Boeing in 2005. Boeing won a ruling in its favor in 2019, permitting the US to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion of European goods; as we’ll see, the US has already started levying charges. The EU win allows Europe to impose tariffs on $3.99 billion of specified US goods, including Boeing airplanes, although the EU needs to take an additional formal step to get rolling.The extraordinarily attenuated process shows why WTO adjudications aren’t a great way to stop trade abuses. And this timeline doesn’t include appeals, which currently are a non-starter due to the Trump Administration refusing to appoint new WTO appellate judges.The disparity between the amount of trade the US can subject to tariffs, $7.5 billion, versus the EU’s $3.99 billion, means the US is being reported as having an advantage in settlement talks (“talks” also assumes a Biden win).But the Wall Street Journal reports, in a pretty big detail that other accounts appear to have missed, that the EU can levy more in tariffs based on earlier decisions in its favor:European officials say they can levy an additional $4 billion in tariffs based on a previous finding of other U.S. violations, which would be on top of the $3.99 billion awarded on Tuesday.Ooops. Even though this $4 billion is outside the aircraft tit-for-tat cases, if the US doesn’t have other WTO judgments against Europe in its favor (and I don’t see any indication of that in the stories I’ve seen), it looks like a slight edge for the EU on a raw numbers basis.And the US position is weakened a bit further by the 737-Max diminished state of Boeing, which means that aircraft tariffs would hurt Boeing more than similar tariffs applied to Airbus. The EU could impose 15% tariffs on the 737 Max right when Boeing hopes to deliver planes to buyers like Ryanair in 2021. It would be nice to see a version of this chart that showed the nominal sales value of these orders and deliveries, but this gives an idea of the relative positions of the two manufacturers. From Defense Security Monitor on September 14: Even the mainstream press concedes that Boeing has more to lose. From the New York Times:The tariffs, when American companies are reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, would be especially painful for Boeing, which is already struggling from a pair of devastating crises. Boeing, like Airbus, announced plans this summer to cut more than 10 percent of its global work force amid a steep decline in travel, which has forced airlines to delay and scale back plans to buy planes. Both Boeing and Airbus plan to cut more than 30,000 jobs in all. To state the obvious, this isn’t a great time for Boeing and Airbus to be kicking each other in the teeth via tariffs. And even though the WTO rulings allow each party to levy charges on goods other than airplanes, they are listed first and presumably represent the biggest economic target. And the US has already hit US Airbus buyers with tariffs, which makes it well nigh impossible for the EU not to respond in kind, even if the intent is to bring the US to the table.
The Great Barrington Declaration - Universal Lockdowns vs. Focused Protection - With governments around the world implementing Phase II of their lockdowns as the number of COVID-19 cases grows (in tandem with the number of tests being completed), it is interesting to see that there is another narrative being promoted by a group of infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists who are growing increasingly concerned about the physical and mental health impact that these universal lockdowns are having on our society. After a meeting at Great Barrington, Massachusetts between October 1st and 4th, 2020, three scientists have created the Great Barrington Declaration, a document that has been signed by thousands of scientists and hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens who have become increasingly concerned about how their governments are handling the COVID-19 pandemic and how the current measures being utilized (i.e. lockdowns) are, in fact, causing irreparable damage to all of us.Let's open this posting by looking at a video featuring three dissenting scientists who are responsible for issuing the Great Barrington Declaration:The three imminently qualified scientists who originated this Declaration are as follows: 1.) Dr. Martin Kulldorff: 2.) Dr. Sunetra Gupta: 3.) Dr. Jay Bhattacharya: Here is the entire text of the Great Barrington Declaration: "As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection. Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
Focused Protection, Herd Immunity, and Other Deadly Delusions - A few weeks ago, as I was browsing online at Jacobin, I found an interview, headlined “We Need a Radically Different Approach to the Pandemic and Our Economy as a Whole,” with Harvard professors Katherine Yih and Martin Kulldorff. I was excited to read it. However, after some acknowledgement of the impact the pandemic has had on the poor and vulnerable in the United States, the piece makes a sharp detour into a defense of herd immunity, the very same strategy supported by Scott Atlas, President Donald Trump’s most favored adviser at the moment—and roundly criticized by experts around the country, including more than 100 of Atlas’s own colleagues at Stanford. Fast forward to this week, where one of the Harvard professors in question, Martin Kulldorff, along with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford University and Sunetra Gupta from the University of Oxford, were in D.C. meeting with Scott Atlas and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to promote their new “focused protection” strategy in which “schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume.” In the words of Donald Trump, “America will again and soon be open for business,” across the board, if we follow the advice of these professors. What has shocked and dismayed the vast majority of people working in public health and clinical medicine about this strategy is that it is heavy on the rationale for reopening or “liberating” states, cities, and towns and light on the “focused protection” part. Kulldorff, Bhattacharya, and Gupta are confident that we can sequester and protect the elderly and vulnerable from the virus, while the young and fit go about their business as usual and their getting infected is seen as their contribution to the building of herd immunity, presenting little risk to them.Let’s put this into some real-world context. In the United States, only a small proportion of older Americans live in nursing or care homes, where we have shown little ability to keep our elders safe over the past eight months. The bulk of older Americans are integrated into our communities, living alone or with their spouses or their families. Even if we could make nursing homes into impenetrable fortresses impervious to viral entry, it’s not at all clear how we’d keep the millions of elderly “safe” as they live around, among, and with us. In fact, data from CDC suggests that we haven’t done a good job at all on this, and when virus cases surge in young people, the elderly are next in line for transmission.Another group of people to whom these three august academics give short shrift are the chronically ill in America. The CDC estimates that nearly half of all Americans (47.5 percent) have underlying conditions that predispose them to severe Covid-19 outcomes. If it is a challenge to think of sequestering the elderly, what do we do with almost half of our fellow Americans who may be at similar enhanced risk of complications and death from Covid-19?
What if both the lockdowners and the anti-lockdowners are wrong? - FT Alphaville - John Hempton recently released his September letter to clients, and we thought there was one section that was particularly good on Covid. His key point is that maybe both lockdowners and anti-lockdowners are wrong because there’s something behavioural within humans that naturally orientates R to 1. From the letter: Since the latter part of March, no country has had a virus infection/fatality curve that matched these [epidemiological] mathematical models. And the new curves are being interpreted according to one’s preferred ideology. A libertarian interpretation is that the virus isn’t that favourite you should eliminate lockdown. Sweden is the favourite example for an anti-lockdown stance. Alternatively, those with opposing points of view observe the lower death rates as indicative of the success of public policy and maintain a pro-lockdown stance. Sweden is characterised instead as a failure, with a higher death rate than its nearest neighbours (Norway, Finland). We argue that the new curves do not indicate anything much about the virus. They are just what you would expect to happen (although to be fair we did not expect it at the time). The idea is simple. For any individual there is a risk to social activity. Getting on a bus entails risk. Singing in a choir much more risk. Working from home and minimising exposure entails very little risk. As the virus becomes more common the real and perceived risk of going out becomes higher. People will choose to stay at home or take less risk. As the virus becomes less common the risk of going out and doing things is lower so risk taking will increase. The end result is a rough equilibrium where the virus goes sideways. To use the jargon, R0 tends to one. This seems to happen everywhere. (The idea has been expounded elsewhere — see this article by Joshua Gans.) Hempton later puts this model of behavioural risk into the context of both the Swedish and US response to Covid: America did have a wide range of variable lockdown policies (but relative to say Melbourne weak policies with weak enforcement). It also had an explosion of cases, but the virus is now going roughly sideways at levels much higher than Sweden. Libertarians however have that the relative success of the Swedish policy (versus say the American policy) means that if you had adopted the Swedish policy in America you would have got better results in America. They are likely wrong too. The reason is obvious. Sweden is one of the strongest welfare states in the world. America is the weakest welfare state among rich countries. The cost of not going out (ie not taking risk) in Sweden is largely that you collect (generous) welfare. The cost of not going out (and hence avoiding risk) for a low-income American is that they and their family starve. Americans — especially poor Americans — will take more risk because the lack of welfare dictates that they take more risk. The net effect is that the virus will stabilise at a higher level in America than Sweden at any level of non-effective lockdown policy. Incidentally this is true for a wide range of virus severity. So in the great battle of coronavirus response ideologies, perhaps all that matters is our perception of risk? It’s a pretty compelling argument, but we need to chew on it some more.
Labor secretary's wife tests positive for COVID-19 Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia’s wife tested positive for the coronavirus, the Labor Department announced Tuesday. Trish Scalia is currently experiencing “mild symptoms but doing well,” the department said. Eugene Scalia tested negative for the virus.“The Secretary and Mrs. Scalia will follow the advice of health professionals for Trish’s recovery and the health of those around them. For the time being, the Secretary will work from home while continuing to carry out the mission of the Department and the President’s agenda,” the Labor Department said in a statement. It was not immediately clear where Trish Scalia contracted the virus. Both Scalias attended the Rose Garden event where President Trump announced his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, which has been linked to multiple COVID-19 cases within Trump's circle. Trump battled his own bout of the coronavirus earlier this month, and dozens of White House staffers, campaign aides and advisers contracted the virus after attending an outdoor White House event where many people in the packed crowd did not wear masks.
Two Energy Secretary security detail members test positive for coronavirus - Two members of Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette's security detail tested positive forcoronavirus, the department announced late Thursday night. Brouillette has tested negative for the virus and is not showing any symptoms, Energy spokesperson Shaylyn Hynes said in a statement posted on Twitter. He was scheduled to be in Johnstown and Erie, Pennsylvania, Thursday touring a plastics engineering lab and participating in a roundtable discussion with local labor and energy leaders, according to a press release on the department's website."Out of an abundance of caution, the Secretary and traveling staff will be returning by vehicle to Washington and following CDC guidance," Hynes said.A host of lawmakers, governmental officials and their staff have tested positive for the virus recently. At least a dozen people, including President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump, tested positive for Covid-19 after attending a Rose Garden event in September where it was announced that Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated to the Supreme Court. In June, two Secret Service agents tested positive for coronavirus after working Trump's indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and dozens of agents were quarantined as a precaution. The following month, eight Secret Service agents assigned to Vice President Mike Pence's detail ahead of his trip to Arizona tested positive for the virus.
Barron Trump tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month - Barron Trump tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, first lady Melania Trump announced in a a personal essay posted on the White House website. The 14-year-old has since tested negative, as have the first lady and the president, since the two contracted the virus earlier this month. Mr. Trump, has described his battle with the virus to supporters but has not said much about his family's experience with COVID-19. Mrs. Trump said Barron exhibited no symptoms. "It was two weeks ago when I received the diagnosis that so many Americans across our country and the world had already received—I tested positive for COVID-19. To make matters worse, my husband, and our nation's Commander-in-Chief, received the same news," Mrs. Trump wrote. "Naturally my mind went immediately to our son," she continued. "To our great relief he tested negative, but again, as so many parents have thought over the past several months, I couldn't help but think "what about tomorrow or the next day? My fear came true when he was tested again and it came up positive. Luckily he is a strong teenager and exhibited no symptoms. In one way I was glad the three of us went through this at the same time so we could take care of one another and spend time together. He has since tested negative." Mrs. Trump said she has also tested negative and hopes to resume her duties "as soon as I can." She also described how the disease affected her, and she indicated her road to recovery did not require a drug regimen similar to her husband's."I was very fortunate as my diagnosis came with minimal symptoms, though they hit me all at once and it seemed to be a roller coaster of symptoms in the days after," she wrote. "I experienced body aches, a cough and headaches, and felt extremely tired most of the time. I chose to go a more natural route in terms of medicine, opting more for vitamins and healthy food."
Trump’s “herd immunity” policy and right-wing terror - On Tuesday, Newsweek reported that two Trump administration officials said the White House supports the Great Barrington Declaration, a statement advocating the mass infection of the population with COVID-19 through a policy of “herd immunity.” The declaration comes out of a meeting organized by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), a right-wing libertarian think tank centered in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. It calls for governments to “build up immunity to the virus through natural infection,” discourages remote work, and promotes mass gatherings where the virus can spread. The implementation of this policy would mean death on a massive scale. The “herd immunity” policy is condemned by all reputable health authorities, including the World Health Organization. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Monday called such a policy “unethical.” He added, “Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it. Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic.” But this is precisely the policy that has been implemented by the Trump administration and other governments throughout the world. The Washington Post quoted a White House official as saying, “The plan [the Great Barrington Declaration] is endorsing what the president’s policy has been for months.” If the White House believed “for months” that efforts to contain the pandemic are counterproductive, then its refusal to take basic measures to stop the spread of the pandemic in January and February must be seen as malicious homicide. Based on the belief that mass infection of the population is a good thing, the White House deliberately and knowingly carried out policies that have led to over 200,000 deaths in the US. The anonymous official continued, “Everybody knows that 200,000 people died. That’s extremely serious and tragic. But on the other hand, I don’t think society has to be paralyzed, and we know the harms of confining people to their homes.” The Trump administration is also escalating its attack on Dr. Anthony Fauci as part of the broader effort to undermine any coordinated response to the pandemic. Fauci recently warned “If we don't do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000-400,000 Covid-19 deaths.” The White House’s open endorsement of “herd immunity” comes just days after law enforcement officials revealed an advanced plot by far-right terrorists to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The plot, which according to reports yesterday also targeted Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, was centered on opposition to even the most minimal restrictions aimed at containing the pandemic. The plot grew out of right-wing demonstrations in April and May, led by heavily armed militias, in state capitals in Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin and other states. These demonstrations, egged on by the Trump’s call to “liberate” these states, came as the ruling class was demanding a return to work following limited measures adopted in March in response to protests by autoworkers and other sections of the working class as the pandemic spread.
3 Individuals Linked To Biden Campaign Test Positive For COVID-19; Harris Suspends Campaign Until Monday -Finally, it appears some Democrats have tested positive for COVID-19. Or at least that's what the Biden Camp wants the public to focus on Thursday morning, as the scandal about Hunter Biden's emails enters Day 2.Kamala Harris's communications director Liz Allen and a "non-staff" flight crew member have tested positive for COVID-19. Neither Harris nor Joe Biden have had close contact with either, though Harris will suspend in-person events for a few days before returning to campaigning in person Monday morning. Harris has reportedly tested negative, per the campaign.Biden campaign says two staffers test positive for Covid. Neither was in contact with Biden or Harris.[Covid is everywhere, people] pic.twitter.com/rdHcZJ2rva — Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) October 15, 2020 Though Harris wasn't in close contact with her top communications staffer, and thus does not need to quarantine under CDC standards (according to the campaign), she is taking a few days off "out of an abundance of caution."The staffers tested positive "late Wednesday night," according to the campaign.Of course, the timing of the positive tests is certainly interesting, but then again, COVID-19 can infect any person at any time. With 19 days until the election, how might this latest outbreak, which comes barely a week after the White House outbreak appeared to finally quiet down, impact Team Biden? Update 1530ET): Another Biden campaign worker has tested positive - this time, it was a member of the crew on one of Biden's chartered planes. The former VEEP wasn't exposed, according to the campaign.
Supreme Court nominee Barrett faces Senate confirmation hearings despite virus - Confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett are set to begin today. Republicans, who control the Senate, are moving at a breakneck pace to seat Barrett before the Nov. 3 election, to secure Trump's pick and hear a high-profile challenge to the Affordable Care Act and any election-related challenges. Democrats are trying in vain to delay the fast-track confirmation by raising fresh concerns about the safety of meeting during the pandemic after two Republican senators on the panel tested positive for the coronavirus. In prepared remarks for the Judiciary Committee hearing, which the AP obtained, the federal appeals court judge says :“Courts are not designed to solve every problem or right every wrong in our public life.” The three days of hearings are like no others before them with voting underway in many states and the country in the grips of the pandemic, Mark Sherman, Lisa Mascaro, Mary Clare Jalonick and Mike Balsamo report. Her affiliation with the Christian community People of Praise is drawing scrutiny because of its ultraconservative views on women. Her defenders say examining her beliefs and relationship to the mostly Catholic organization is akin to anti-religious bigotry. But in interviews with a dozen former members of the organization or alumni of the schools it runs, most told the AP that her association with the organization is relevant. Some are excited. Others are concerned. Some wonder why Barrett hasn't disclosed or even acknowledged her connection to People of Praise.
Amy Coney Barrett Served as Handmaid in People of Praise --While Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett has faced questions about how her Catholic faith might influence her jurisprudence, she has not spoken publicly about her involvement in People of Praise, a small Christian group founded in the 1970s and based in South Bend, Ind. Barrett, a federal appellate judge, has disclosed serving on the board of a network of private Christian schools affiliated with the group. The organization, however, has declined to confirm that she is a member. In recent years, it removed from its website editions of a People of Praise magazine — first those that included her name and photograph and then all archives of the magazine itself.
Ex-members of religious group mixed on Barrett nomination -- Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett’s affiliation with the Christian community People of Praise is drawing scrutiny because of what former members and observers describe as its ultraconservative views on women. Her defenders say scrutinizing her beliefs and relationship to the mostly Catholic organization is akin to anti-religious bigotry. But in interviews with a dozen former members of the organization and graduates of the schools it runs, most told The Associated Press that Barrett’s association with the group should be examined when a Senate committee takes up her nomination beginning Monday. Some were excited that one of their own could soon be on the high court, in a position to roll back abortion rights. Others were deeply concerned about that threat, and also about the community’s teachings on gender and gay rights, as well as what they describe as its authoritarian structure. Some wondered why Barrett hasn’t disclosed or acknowledged her connection to People of Praise and why the group appeared to try to hide her affiliation by deleting documents from its website. The AP has documented extensive ties Barrett and her family have to the community, including that an old directory listed her as being one of the organization’s “handmaids,” now called a “woman leader,” and that she was a trustee of the group’s Trinity Schools. People of Praise is not a church, but a faith community. It grew out of the Catholic charismatic movement rooted in Pentecostalism, which emphasizes a personal relationship with Jesus and can include baptism in the Holy Spirit, speaking in tongues and prophecy. It was founded in 1971 in South Bend, Indiana, and it has 22 branches and around 1,700 members, according to its website. Most members are Roman Catholic. Among its teachings are that men are divinely ordained as the “head” of the family and faith, and it’s the duty of wives to submit to them, according to current and former members. People who have been involved in and studied the organization say it’s authoritarian and hierarchical. Some former members told AP of practices such as leaders deciding who can date who.
Amy Coney Barrett's extreme views put women's rights in jeopardy - Recently, news broke that Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s deeply-conservative nominee to the Supreme Court, supported an anti-choice group whose extreme views include criminalizing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. In a 2006 newspaper advertisement signed by Barrett, St. Joseph Right to Life advocated for defending “the right to life from fertilization to natural death.” Jackie Appleman, the group’s executive director, told the Guardian that St. Joseph Right to Life “would be supportive of criminalizing the discarding of frozen embryos or selective reduction through the IVF process.” Appleman went on to say that they are not supportive of criminalizing women “at this point.” Count me unconvinced. Barrett’s anti-choice record was already alarming and well-documented. Still, her decision to support such a group is an example of just how far outside the mainstream she and other anti-choice politicians are regarding reproductive rights. It is also a reminder that the extreme anti-choice agenda threatens access to abortion care and people’s ability to become parents, start families and ultimately control their own lives. Anti-choice politicians across the country have a long record of pushing “personhood” legislation that would, in addition to criminalizing abortion, also endanger access to infertility treatments such as IVF. By conferring full legal rights on fertilized embryos, personhood proposals would criminalize anything that puts a fertilized embryo at risk, including IVF treatment. This is dangerous, and it speaks to the true motives behind the anti-choice movement: deny people’s bodily autonomy and dictate their most deeply-personal decisions. That’s why Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) mad rush to confirm Barrett to a lifelong appointment just weeks before the election is a stunning abuse of power that will spell political trouble for Republicans for years to come. Millions of Americans conceive through IVF each year, and 1 in 8 of us struggle with infertility. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), whose two daughters were conceived with the help of IVF, implored her Senate colleagues to oppose Barrett’s nomination, writing that “Barrett’s decision to associate her name to such an organization is disqualifying and, quite frankly, insulting to every parent, hopeful parent or would-be parent who has struggled to start a family.” Even in deep-red Mississippi, voters rejected a personhood amendment at the ballot box by a 58-42 margin. McConnell may think it’s worth putting his Senate majority at risk if it means gaining a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court. But like the proverbial dog that caught the car, Republicans should beware of the long-term consequences of a Supreme Court willing to repeal the Affordable Care Act and overturn Roe v. Wade.
Notre Dame faculty in open letter ask Barrett to 'halt' nomination process --Faculty members of the University of Notre Dame wrote a letter asking Amy Coney Barrett to “halt” her Supreme Court nomination process until after the November presidential election. In an open letter to Barrett, the faculty noted her nomination comes amid a tense 2020 election in which voters are already casting ballots. More than 11 million ballots have been cast in the 2020 election, according to data from the United States Election Project. The members noted the "rushed nature" of the nomination process, which "may effectively deprive the American people of a voice in selecting the next Supreme Court justice." "You are not, of course, responsible for the anti-democratic machinations driving your nomination," the letter read before mentioning Senate Republicans' refusal to take up former President Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland during the 2016 presidential election. The letter also stated that stopping the confirmation process now would fulfill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's dying wish to leave her seat on the bench open until after the November election. They pointed out that Barrett said Ginsburg was "a woman of enormous talent and consequence, whose life of public service serves as an example to us all" when her nomination was announced by President Trump at the White House. The faculty stated that the confirmation process will "further inflame our civic wounds, undermine confidence in the court, and deepen the divide among ordinary citizens." None of the faculty members that signed on to the letter were from Notre Dame Law School, where Barrett was a professor and an alumna. Barrett received the blessing of Notre Dame Law School on the day of her nomination and unanimous endorsements from all of her Notre Dame colleagues for her nomination to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in 2017. Confirmation hearings on Barrett's nomination to the Supreme Court began on Monday.
Harris raises alarm on abortion rights while grilling Barrett -- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) told Amy Coney Barrett Thursday that her nomination to the Supreme Court poses a serious threat to abortion rights, signaling that women’s reproductive freedom will emerge as a significant issue in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign. “Anti-choice activists and politicians have been working for decades to pass laws and file lawsuits designed to overturn Roe and the precedents that followed. The threat to choice is real,” Harris said during her 30 minutes of question time at Barrett’s second day of confirmation hearings. Harris, Joe Biden’s vice presidential running mate, dinged Barrett for dodging questions about how she viewed the precedents set by Roe v. Wade in 1973 and Casey v. Planned Parenthood in 1992, which established and affirmed a woman’s right to an abortion. She said the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was confirmed by the Senate in 1993, was “far more forthcoming” at her hearing “about the essential rights of women.” “She testified that the decision whether or not to bear a child is central to a woman’s life, to her wellbeing and dignity. It is a decision she must make for herself,” Harris said, recounting Ginsburg’s testimony. Harris noted that Ginsburg asserted at the time that it was essential to women’s equality that she be the decision maker about whether to bring a pregnancy to term. “She did freely discuss how she viewed a woman’s right to choose,” she said. Harris argued that abortion rights are now under serious threat. She did not ask Barrett, who dodged questions about abortion rights for most of Tuesday’s hearing, any direct questions about her views on the topic. She pointed to the Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling in June Medical Services v. Russo in June striking down a Louisiana law that required doctors who perform abortions to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals. She noted that Chief Justice John Roberts, who was appointed by President George W. Bush to the court, joined four liberal justices, including Ginsburg, to uphold the protections established by Roe v. Wade. Roberts agreed with the his liberal colleagues “that the court was bound by its own precedent to strike down the Louisiana law because it was virtually identical to a Texas law that the court ruled unconstitutional in 2016,” she said. If Barrett, who expressed skepticism in a 2013 law journal article about whether Roe v. Wade was correctly decided, ruled with the court’s four conservative members in a similar case, it could give states more leeway to put restrictions on abortion, Harris argued. “Justice Ginsburg provided the critical fifth vote to strike down the unconstitutional abortion restriction in June Medical Services. So we must be honest about the impact of her passing and the impact it will have on the court’s decisions in cases regarding women’s access to reproductive health care,” the senator added.
Corporate Law Consequences: Amy Coney Barrett Nomination - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Yesterday was the kickoff for Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Barring some unforeseen and unprecedented event, the outcome is not in doubt. Republicans have the necessary votes to confirm her appointment to fill the seat previously held by Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And they are keen to do so. Some have suggested ways for Democrats to block the nomination. But they seem to lack the will – and necessary legislative skills – to do so.Much media speculation has so far focused on what her appointment would mean for overturning or even more drastically circumscribing the Roe v. Wade decision, or in the event that the 2020 election ends up in the Supreme Court. I’m going to focus on a quick take on another key issue: what the consequences of her successful appointment would be for US corporate law.Alas, I have yet to finish my broader review of her corporate law record – reading her published output takes time. But sometimes timeliness trumps originality. This is one of them. So I will rely on the analysis of others whose work I trust as my first take on the question. And then I promise to share my later and I hope deeper and more nuanced thoughts with readers when I’ve finished my reading and have had time to do more thinking. Let’s look at two sources. First up, Journalist and former senior adviser and speechwriter for the campaign of Bernie Sanders David Sirota highlights a key issue in a tweet. Millions of dollars are boosting Barrett's nomination - that money is flooding in because she has consistently been a corporate rubber stamp. The GOP doesnt want anyone talking about this record, because it shows that Barrett's nomination is a betrayal of America's working class. Sirota expands on this argument in a column he wrote for The Guardian, The US supreme court may soon become plutocracy’s greatest defender. starting with the financial interests that are lined up behind the Barrett nomination: Barrett’s record on social issues is extreme and worthy of scrutiny, criticism and organized opposition, especially at a time when crucial precedents may be on the line. Those issues, however, are almost certainly not what is motivating big donors to funnel millions of dollars into groups like the Judicial Crisis Network, the oil magnate Charles Koch’s network and the US Chamber of Commerce in support of Barrett’s nomination. Those groups’ ads and lobbying campaigns may try to focus the public debate on religion and court precedent, but such enormous sums of cash flood into judicial campaigns with one underlying goal: enriching the corporations and plutocrats that are making the donations. Now for a brief word from my second source. Antitrust expert Matt Stoller maintains that by confirming Barrett, the Trump administration would find it more difficult to pursue an effective campaign against monopoly power. Lots of excitement by conservatives to own the liberals by confirming Barrett. You guys should recognize ACB will likely make it much harder for Trump to address big tech's monopoly power. Will Trump's Supreme Court Destroy Trump's Google Case? The court cases that have made antitrust a dead letter have largely come from the conservative legal movement.
Senator Whitehouse Named Names in Dark Money Tutorial at Amy Barrett’s Confirmation Hearing - Pam Martens - You could hear a lot of throat clearing from the live mic at the table where Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett sat yesterday as Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) brilliantly exposed the tentacles of the corporate and fossil fuels money that was attempting to ram her onto the U.S. Supreme Court. (See the full video of the presentation by Whitehouse below.) As a former U.S. Attorney for the Justice Department and former Attorney General of Rhode Island, Whitehouse knows corruption when he sees it. The Whitehouse tutorial was a summation of a 29-page treatise by Whitehouse that appeared earlier this year in the Harvard Law School Journal on Legislation. That article provides an in-depth look at how dark money has plied its corporate agenda to steal representative government from the American people. If you are searching for answers as to how America arrived at this perilous moment in time and how to change the future course for our nation, we strongly encourage you to watch the video below, then read the full article by Whitehouse. In Whitehouse’s presentation yesterday, he called out the Judicial Crisis Network, saying it had received two anonymous $17 million donations to put right wing justices on the U.S. Supreme Court. Noting that the funds could have come from the same individual, Whitehouse said: “Someone spent $35 million to influence the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court – tell me that’s good.” Whitehouse repeatedly invoked the name of Donors Trust as well as its affiliated Donors Capital Fund, two dark money groups that allow the super wealthy to peddle influence anonymously. When Whitehouse had filed an Amicus brief in a case involving the right wing’s attack on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), he noticed that a “flotilla” of right-wing groups filed Amicus briefs urging the court to take the right-wing’s position. He said that Donors Trust had provided $23 million to the groups that wrote the briefs in the CFPB case. Whitehouse then put up another slide showing that the Federalist Society, the nonprofit that is providing the names of pre-approved nominees to the Supreme Court to the Trump administration, is receiving millions of dollars from the very same dark money conduits that are then funding the Amicus-writing groups. Whitehouse pointed out that Donors Trust had given $16.7 million to the Federalist Society. That was more than half of the $33 million that the Federalist Society had received from all of the dark money groups involved in these Supreme Court cases. Another slide in Whitehouse’s arsenal came from information published by the Washington Post. It showed that the Judicial Crisis Network and the Federalist Society’s offices are on the same hallway. When the Washington Post reporter went to speak to someone at the Judicial Crisis Network, the reporter was escorted to the Judicial Crisis Network office by a Federalist Society employee. When the Washington Post tallied up all of the dark money involved in remaking the nation’s federal courts, it came to a $250 million operation. Whitehouse also revealed that there had been 80 cases at the Supreme Court where a wealthy Republican donor had been involved that had all been decided in the right-wing’s favor in 5-4 decisions. The cases fell into four categories: allowing unlimited dark money in politics; knocking down civil jury trials; weakening regulatory agencies; and, finally, passing voter suppression laws and bulk gerrymandering, where congressional districts are redrawn so that the bulk of the districts become Republican majority districts.
Barrett declines to say whether Trump has authority to delay the election - Judge Amy Coney Barrett declined to say that a United States president doesn't have the authority to unilaterally delay an election. During the second day of her Supreme Court confirmation hearings on Tuesday, Barrett was asked by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) whether the president has "the authority to unilaterally delay a general election under any circumstances," noting that President Trump floated this idea earlier this year while pushing baseless voter fraud claims. Barrett did not comment on whether the president would have the authority to do so. "If that question ever came before me, I would need to hear arguments from the litigants and read briefs and consult with my law clerks and talk to my colleagues and go through the opinion writing process," she said. "If I give off the cuff answers, then I would be basically a legal pundit, and I don't think we want judges to be legal pundits. I think we want judges to approach cases thoughtfully and with an open mind." Sylvia Albert, Common Cause director of voting and elections, previously explained to The Washington Post that the Constitution "empowers Congress, not the president, to select Election Day." Albert added, "No laws passed by Congress have delegated these powers to the president, even in an emergency, so Congress is the only entity that has the power to change the date of the election."
Feinstein's hug of Lindsey Graham sparks outrage on the left Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) praise of her Republican colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), which she followed with a friendly hug, is stirring outrage on the left and prompting calls by prominent liberals for her to step down as the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Democrats, liberal activists and left-leaning pundits, many of whom were dismayed that Democratic senators didn’t put a tougher fight against President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett expressed outrage. Demand Justice, an advocacy group that has staunchly opposed Trump’s effort to fill the judiciary with conservative nominees, was first out of the gate with a statement calling for Feinstein to resign. “It's time for Sen. Feinstein to step down from her leadership position on the Senate Judiciary Committee. If she won't, her colleagues need to intervene,” Brian Fallon, the executive director of Demand Justice, said in a statement circulated about an hour after Barrett’s confirmation hearing ended. “If Senate Democrats are going to get their act together on the courts going forward, they cannot be led by someone who treats Sunrise activists with contempt and the Republican theft of a Supreme Court seat with kid gloves,” Fallon said, referring to the Sunrise Movement, a grassroots environmental organization. Prominent voices respected on the left followed with their own stinging criticisms. “Diane Feinstein praising Barrett, and then inexplicably praising Graham, is a clear sign that she should not remain as the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee,” tweeted Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a contributing editor for the Atlantic magazine. Laurence Tribe, professor emeritus of constitutional law at Harvard, retweeted Ornstein’s statement, adding, “I’m afraid I agree, much as I like Sen. Feinstein personally and admired her work years ago.” Feinstein appeared to undercut weeks of arguments by Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democratic senators that Graham’s decision to schedule Barrett’s confirmation hearing a mere two weeks and two days after her nomination was announced on Sept. 26 was an outrageously unfair ramming through of the nominee. Feinstein didn’t appear to hold any grudge against Graham after he locked in a committee vote on Barrett’s nomination for Oct. 22, preventing Democrats from holding it over for an extra week as the minority party is customarily allowed to do.
Trump barred from moving $3.6 billion from military to fund border wall construction: Federal court - A federal appeals court ruled late Friday that President Donald Trump's use of his emergency powers to build his long-promised border wall with military funds is illegal, striking a blow to one of his signature campaign promises just weeks before the November election. The 2-1 decision from the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals comes as $3.6 billion was slated for construction of about a dozen projects, including two projects in the Laredo and El Paso areas. The money was diverted from funds dedicated for military construction after the president declared a national emergency in February 2019 to tap the funds. The projects in Texas would have covered more than 60 miles, according to the American Civil Liberties Union. "The courts have once again confirmed what everyone knows: Trump's fake 'national emergency' was just another pretext for targeting immigrants and border communities," said Dror Ladin, a senior staff attorney with the ACLU's National Security Project. "It's past time for Trump to finally give up on trying to raid the federal budget for his wasteful and illegal project." The lawsuit, Sierra Club v. Trump, was filed last year by the ACLU on behalf of the Sierra Club and Southern Border Communities Coalition. The ruling Friday upholds a 2019 decision that halted the construction. But that order was put on hold, said Gloria Smith, the managing attorney at the Sierra Club.
US agents in Guatemala detained Honduran migrants in unauthorized operation: Senate report U.S. officials in Guatemala allegedly misused State Department funding for an operation to block a Honduran migrant group from moving north, according to a report by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The report, compiled by Democratic minority staff of the panel, alleges that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials deployed in an advisory capacity misused the funding "to carry out an unauthorized operation." "Specifically, CBP personnel in Guatemala transported an unidentified number of Honduran migrants in unmarked vans to relocate them to the Guatemala-Honduras border," the report read. The incident, which occurred in January, shows the extent to which American immigration policy is carried out south of the U.S.-Mexico border. It's also a case that shows a rift between the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department, which is responsible for funding the program under which CBP personnel were deployed. The report states that the State Department misinformed Foreign Relations committee investigators on January 22, saying the department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) was informed by DHS that agents "did not participate in the action of bussing Honduran migrants from Guatemala." "However, as would soon become apparent, DHS had lied to the State Department in order to cover up its role in the joint operations with Guatemalan authorities," according to the report. A week later, DHS and State Department officials told committee investigators that the actions taken by CBP officials violated the terms of the agreement between the two agencies.
Rudy Giuliani Uses Mocking Asian Accent In Hot Mic ‘Ah So’ Moment A hot mic moment accidentally posted by his own team showed Donald Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani talking in a mocking Asian accent while repeatedly bowing, The Daily Beast reported Wednesday. (See the clip below.)The former New York City mayor had just wrapped up his “Common Sense” podcast interview with former White House press secretary Sean Spicer when he began teasing someone off-camera he calls Jayne Zirkle, whose Twitter account says she is a “Trump Supporter.”As the camera still rolled in the now-private YouTube footage (but captured by The Daily Beast), Giuliani playfully admonishes Zirkle for being upset about something and tells her, “You’re gonna be the most famous model in China.” He then puts on a fake Asian accent. “Ah, get me Jayne Zirkle, get me Jayne Zirkle,” he says. The Trump surrogate continued his racist affectation while pretending to defer to Zirkle in a dinner order. “Jayne Zirkle pick ’em,” he said. He then bows repeatedly while uttering Zirkle’s name with an “ah so” over and over.
Supreme Court allows Trump administration to end census count early - The Supreme Court on Tuesday effectively allowed the government to stop the census count immediately, blocking a lower court order that would have required the Trump administration to continue gathering census information in the field until the end of October. The Census Bureau said it wanted to stop the count so that it could start processing the data to meet a Dec. 31 deadline, set in federal law, for reporting the results to the president. But the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ordered the government to keep going with its field work until Oct. 31, concluding that a longer time in the field would increase accuracy. This year's process of conducting the population count began on time, but field operations were suspended in March in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Commerce Department asked Congress for a four-month delay in the deadline for reporting the results, but that request went nowhere.
Supreme Court grants Trump request to halt 2020 census The Supreme Court on Tuesday granted the Trump administration’s request to halt the census count while an appeal plays out in a lower court. The emergency order comes a week after a California-based federal appeals court denied a request from the administration to reverse a lower court's order requiring the count to continue through October rather than reinstate the administration's since-passed Oct. 5 deadline. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, wrote that "the harms caused by rushing this year’s census count are irreparable." The other justices did not disclose their votes or explain their reasoning, as is often the case with emergency orders. In their filing last week, administration officials told the justices that the shorter window is necessary to allow the Commerce Department to wrap up operations in time to meet its end-of-year deadline to report the results to the White House. But critics say the move risks undercounting minority populations composed of both documented and undocumented immigrants. Last Wednesday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit denied the administration’s request to halt the district judge’s order that extended the census deadline through Oct. 31. The panel wrote that failure to meet the Dec. 31 reporting deadline was unlikely to invalidate the numbers delivered to President Trump. The appeals court also left open the option of Congress passing an extension if the numbers are delivered after the Dec. 31 deadline. Congress took similar steps in the census counts conducted for three decades in the 19th century. The administration has continued its push to exclude undocumented immigrants from the decennial count, despite a Supreme Court ruling that blocked the administration from including a question on the census about the recipient’s legal status in the U.S.
Trump administration rushing through regulations without public comment or analysis as it prepares for probable loss - President Trump's team is on a last-minute deregulation spree. In an attempt to further as many of Republicans' deregulation goals as possible, Trump's team is eclipsing the usual process for changing regulations and pushing them through without public comment or analysis. The rushed processes could have major safety and privacy consequences for millions of Americans, but seems to be a sign Trump is preparing for an election loss, The New York Times reports. Regulatory changes usually require at least a 60-day public comment period, but Trump's team has shortened that to 30 days. And in some cases, it has even skipped the public comment period entirely by implementing what's known as an interim final rule — something usually reserved for emergencies. Without these public comment periods, regulations can pass without expert analysis and opinions that can root out safety shortcomings and other issues. It's all being done in a likely attempt to get rules quickly finalized before Trump's term ends in January — and before he's potentially forced to leave office. The Trump administration is looking to loosen restrictions on how long truck drivers can stay behind the wheel, allow the federal government to take biometric data from people applying for citizenship, and let independent contractors work more before they have to be considered employees, among other regulations.
As Trump Touts His ‘Great’ COVID Drugs, the Pharma Cash Flows to Biden, Not Him --Pharmaceutical giants Regeneron and Gilead Sciences got the kind of publicity money can’t buy this week after President Donald Trump took their experimental drugs for his coronavirus infection, left the hospital and pronounced himself fully recovered.“It was, like, unbelievable. I felt good immediately,” Trump said Wednesday in a tweeted video. “I call that a cure.”He praised Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody cocktail, which mimics elements of the immune system, and mentioned a similar drug under investigation by Eli Lilly and Co. The president also took Gilead’s remdesivir, an antiviral that has shortened recovery times for COVID-19 patients in early research.There is no scientific evidence that any of these drugs contributed to the president’s recovery, since many patients do fine without them. It is also not known whether the president has been “cured,” since the White House has released few specifics about the course of his illness. Yet as his campaign for reelection enters its final stretch, Trump is not feeling the love in campaign contributions. Regeneron, Gilead, Lilly and the industry as a whole are sending more money elsewhere.Reversing a trend in which contributions from drugmakers’ political committees and their employees have gone largely to Republican candidatesfor president and Congress, so far for 2020 the industry has tilted toward Democrats. In a year when complaints about high prescription drug prices have been overshadowed by the pandemic, donors with ties to pharma manufacturers have given around $976,000 to Biden, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s nearly three times the pharma contributions to Trump, who recently switched his tune from complaining about “rip-off” prescription prices to describing drug firms as “great companies.” “Traditionally the industry tends to favor Republicans,” said Sarah Bryner, CRP’s research director. “But this cycle, we’re seeing that flipped,” partly reflecting Democrats’ overall greater success in fundraising, she said.
Conservative think tank: Biden proposals would cut taxes for most in 2021 - The tax proposals of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would raise $2.8 trillion over 10 years and reduce taxes for most households in the near-term, according to an analysis released Tuesday by the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI). "Overall, Biden’s tax proposals would make the US tax code more progressive," AEI researchers said in their paper. Biden has offered a number of tax proposals aimed at raising taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations. These include undoing portions of President Trump's 2017 tax-cut law that cut taxes for people making over $400,000, subjecting earnings over $400,000 to Social Security taxes, raising the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and changing how U.S. companies' foreign profits are taxed.Biden has also proposed expanding the earned income tax credit and reintroducing and expanding a tax credit for first-time homebuyers. In an effort to provide relief amid the coronavirus pandemic, Biden has proposed to temporarily expand the child tax credit. AEI estimated that Biden's plans would increase federal revenue by $2.8 trillion from 2021 to 2030, with most of the revenue gain coming from tax increases on businesses. In 2021, Biden's proposals would increase taxes for households in the top 5 percent of income but reduce taxes for those in other income groups, according to the analysis. Taxpayers in the top 1 percent of income would see their after-tax incomes reduced by 14.2 percent, while those in the bottom 10 percent would see their after-tax incomes increase by 11.3 percent. The sizable tax cut for low-income households "is primarily due to the large, temporary expansion of the child tax credit," AEI said. The think tank said that in 2030, after the child tax credit expansion expired, those in the top 1 percent of income would still see a sizable tax increase. However, households in other income groups would see small tax increases, with their after-tax incomes decreasing by between 0.1 percent and 2.1 percent. "The modest tax increases for the bottom 95 percent of tax filers in 2030 are primarily attributable to business tax increases," AEI wrote. The Biden campaign in the past has argued that the experience with Trump's tax law raises questions about the notion that part of the corporate tax ultimately is paid by workers. AEI estimated that Biden's proposed higher effective tax rates on wealthy individuals and businesses would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run when compared to the baseline, but that Biden's plan would increase GDP in the medium-term because of a reduction in debt. "In the long term, his plan would not raise enough to stabilize debt-to-GDP and would lead to a 0.18 percent smaller economy," AEI said.
Trump Adds Cars to List of Guns and Other Things Biden Will Take Away if Elected – Newsweek President Donald Trump claimed an administration under Joe Biden would "take your cars away" while discussing the Democratic nominee's proposed environmental policies on Sunday. His latest comments followed numerous others suggesting Biden does not support Second Amendment rights or religious expression.Trump's remarks do not reflect the Democratic challenger's proposed policies regarding climate change and gun violence. Biden is also a practicing Catholic, as SenatorKamala Harris pointed out during last week's vice presidential debate."He's going to end fracking, you know that," Trump told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo during an interview Sunday. "He's going to end petroleum products even though that's going to put us at a tremendous disadvantage...not even disadvantage, we wouldn't be able to compete with the world. Now, instead of $2 gasoline you're going to be paying $6 gasoline. He wants to take cars away from people. The whole thing is insane, OK, it's insane." "How can the auto industry vote for a guy that wants to take your cars away?" the president continued. "And he literally wants to take your cars away. I mean, the whole thing...what he is saying is crazy."
Esper ducks questions on military involvement in election - Defense Secretary Mark Esper sidestepped lawmakers’ questions about potential military involvement in the election, saying only that the military will follow the law. Esper was responding to questions for the record from Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) that the pair submitted to him after a House Armed Services Committee hearing in July. Slotkin and Sherrill, who released Esper’s written answers Tuesday, asked the secretary if he would refuse an order to send active-duty troops to the polls on Election Day and whether he would commit to facilitating a peaceful transition of power. “The U.S. military has acted, and will continue to act, in accordance with the Constitution and the law,” Esper wrote as the answer to both questions. Esper’s response differs from Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who stated clearly when the two lawmakers posed the same questions to him that he saw no role for U.S. troops to play in resolving any electoral dispute. Milley reiterated that stance in an NPR interview that aired Monday, saying he thinks there are “zero” roles for troops to play in the election. Contrasting Esper's response with Milley's, Slotkin and Sherrill framed the secretary's answers as insufficient. "Beyond service to any one president, they have a responsibility to uphold the conduct and reputation of the institution that they love," Slotkin said in a statement. "I appreciated that Gen. Milley’s responses to our questions came from that perspective –– both in terms of what he would do as a cabinet-level official, but also demonstrating how important the apolitical reputation of the military is to him. We heard no such thing from Secretary Esper in his responses. And on a question as serious as the peaceful transition of power, it should be pretty cut and dried to be able to respond in a declarative way."
Ohio county says nearly 50,000 voters received wrong ballots — Nearly 50,000 voters received incorrect absentee ballots in the county that is home to Ohio’s capital, elections officials said Friday as they promised corrected ballots would be mailed within 72 hours. With about 240,000 ballots mailed, that meant one in five voters received a wrong ballot. The error happened Saturday afternoon when someone changed a setting on a machine that places absentee ballots into mailing envelopes, Franklin County elections officials said Thursday. Some ballots had an incorrect congressional race, while others had the correct information but were sent to voters in a different precinct. The Franklin County Elections Board said 49,669 voters received incorrect ballots out of 237,498 that were mailed. The process to print, stuff the replacement ballots in envelopes and mail them was underway Friday, the Franklin County Elections Board announced. The board also said it will mail postcards to all affected voters detailing the situation and highlighting voters’ options moving forward. Those options include voting in-person at the board’s offices on the city’s north side. The elections board said multiple checks are in place to ensure only one voter can cast a ballot, including rejecting any replacement ballots if someone went ahead and voted in person. The news of the incorrect ballots brought renewed focus on an election seeing an unprecedented number of absentee ballot requests, spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and concerns about in-person voting. On Tuesday, Ohio’s elections chief announced that Ohio’s 88 elections boards had a record number of absentee ballot applications. Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose said 2,154,235 applications had been received — more than double the 1,091,188 absentee ballots applications at the same time four years ago.
Pennsylvania rejects 372K mail-in ballot applications following primary confusion: report - Pennsylvania has rejected over 370,000 applications for mail-in ballots, most of which were duplicate requests, according to a report by ProPublica and the Philadelphia Inquirer.The battleground state's election offices rejected 372,000 requests for mail-in ballots, according to the report. About 90 percent of the denied application requests were duplicates, and one out of every five requests have been rejected. Voters in the Keystone State can indicate to election officials if they would like mail-in ballot when they vote during their primary. And issues arose when voters duplicated those requests after asking for a ballot in the general election during the state's June 2 primary. The report found that the majority of 372,000 voters whose requests were denied did not realize that they had checked a box to be sent ballots for the general election in November. In addition, voters have also been confused by unclear or inaccurate information on the state’s ballot-tracking website, and by a wave of information from political parties and get-out-the vote groups, according to the report. The confusion has caused county offices across the state to hire temporary staff and work seven days a week to cope. “The volume of calls we have been getting has been overwhelming,” Marybeth Kuznik, elections director in Armstrong County, northeast of Pittsburgh told ProPublica. “It has been almost like a denial of service attack at times because it seemed that sometimes all I could get done was answer the phone!”
Trump judges upheld Texas limit of one ballot drop-off location per county - Robert Reich - In a late-night ruling yesterday, a federal appeals court comprised of three Trump judges upheld Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s proclamation limiting counties to one ballot drop-off location, overturning a lower court’s ruling. That means that the 2.4 million voters in Harris County, which spans nearly 2,000 square miles, will have just a single location at which to drop off their ballot. Abbott claimed that the proclamation was necessary to prevent “voter fraud,” but has not provided a single piece of evidence that multiple ballot drop-offs would create opportunities for fraud. 82-year-old Ralph Edelbach, who sued the state over the order, said that providing just one drop-off location will force him to spend nearly an hour and a half round trip to deliver his ballot. Now think of all the voters who are disabled, who can’t afford to take time off of work to drive hours to drop off their ballot, or who don’t have access to transportation that will take them that far. This is deliberate voter suppression, plain and simple. It’s absurd that one party has made suppressing the vote a key pillar of their ideology. But don’t get disheartened about Republicans’ anti-democratic tactics: if your vote didn’t matter, they wouldn’t be trying so hard to suppress it.
Muammar Gaddafi's Cousin To Sue Hillary Clinton For "Destroying Libya" - The political official of the Libyan National Struggle Front, Ahmed Gaddaf al-Dam, announced Monday he's initiated first steps to sue former US presidential candidate and ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on charges of spreading destruction and supporting terrorism in Libya. The cousin of the late Libyan president, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, said in an exclusive interview with Russia's Sputnik that he had assigned his legal team to sue the former U.S. Secretary of State. Gaddaf al-Dam added that he provided the legal team with other documents not released by the U.S. State Department to prosecute Hillary Clinton on charges of spreading destruction and supporting terrorism in Libya. No further details were released and it is not clear where the lawsuit will be filed. Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State under U.S. President Barack Obama, when NATO intervened in the Libyan Civil War in 2011. Under heavy bombardment by NATO, Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi was forced to abandon Tripoli and take refuge near the city of Sirte, where he was later captured by anti-government forces and subsequently killed by his captors in 2011.
DOJ sues Melania Trump's former adviser for disclosures in her tell-all book The Justice Department on Tuesday sued Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, a former adviser and confidant of first lady Melania Trump, alleging she breached a nondisclosure agreement when she published a scathing tell-all about her experiences inside the East Wing earlier this year. Though she only served in the White House briefly, DOJ says her non-disclosure agreement "included no termination date," a notable restriction that Winston Wolkoff is likely to challenge on First Amendment grounds. The lawsuit quickly reignited fears among some outside legal experts that the Justice Department was training its resources at the White House's perceived enemies. “This is a complete abuse of the Justice Department’s finite resources to bring a personal lawsuit on behalf of the First Lady against a former advisor," said Brad Moss, a national security attorney. "The case law has been expressly clear for decades that former officials cannot be contractually censored for anything other than classified information, and no amount of legal hairsplitting over Wolkoff’s ‘status’ as a volunteer is going to change that.” The lawsuit is the latest move by the Justice Department to intervene in disputes between the Trumps and their former aides, such as ex-national security adviser John Bolton, who is fighting a lawsuit that claims he disclosed classified information in his explosive tell-all, "The Room Where it Happened." But unlike Bolton, the government doesn't allege Winston Wolkoff disclosed any classified material. Rather, the suit suggests she disclosed details about the deliberations behind Melania Trump's "Be Best" initiative to combat cyberbullying, as well as personnel decisions that the first lady discussed with the president.
U.S. ethics groups say Barr uses DOJ as political tool, call for his impeachment (Reuters) - Two private groups focused on U.S. government ethics on Monday accused Attorney General William Barr of misusing his office to support President Donald Trump's political goals and called on the House of Representatives to begin impeachment proceedings against him. The University of Pennsylvania's Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law and Washington-based Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington said Barr could not be trusted to represent the work of his department accurately and that there were problems with the truthfulness of Barr's public statements. Justice Department officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The groups in a 267-page research paper alleged that Barr's "authoritarian worldview limits the degree to which ... (he) regards himself as bound by the rule of law and makes him see himself as entitled to ignore the laws, ethics and historical practices" at the Justice Department. The paper highlighted several Barr actions, including what it described as his intentional mischaracterization of former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election as well as Barr's move to assign U.S. Attorney John Durham to conduct his own investigation of the Mueller probe. While Trump has long bristled at the suggestion that foreign interference helped his 2016 upset victory, multiple reviews by U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia acted to undercut his rival Hillary Clinton's chances in that election. The authors of Monday's report called on the Democratic-led House of Representatives to begin a formal impeachment inquiry, the first step toward removing him from office. The Republican-controlled Senate earlier this year acquitted Trump after a House impeachment proceeding accused him of misusing his office.
Whitmer plotters also discussed kidnapping Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, FBI agent testifies - An FBI agent said Tuesday that some of those charged in a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also discussed "taking" Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, who reacted to the news by accusing President Trump of fueling extremism with reckless rhetoric. The disturbing allegations about politically motivated violence surfaced during a day-long court hearing over what law enforcement officials say was a plan to abduct Michigan's highest elected official and either leave her on a boat in the middle of a lake or put her "on trial" before a self-styled militia. Northam, like Whitmer a Democrat, said that as a former Army doctor he had faced threats from foreign enemies but never before from his own commander in chief. "These threats and this rhetoric is not coming from another country," the governor said at an afternoon news briefing in Richmond. "It's coming from Washington. And that I regret, and it needs to stop." During the hearing here in Grand Rapids to discuss the charges filed last week against members of a self-proclaimed militia accused of plotting to kidnap Michigan’s governor, FBI Special Agent Richard Trask revealed that months ago, some of the suspects met in Dublin, Ohio, where Northam was also discussed as a potential target. Trask spent hours on the witness stand describing conversations and group text messages among the suspects, who he said repeatedly discussed plans to attack law enforcement officials. At one point, a member of the group mentioned the possibility of attacking Michigan State Police buildings, he said. At another point in the investigation, one of the defendants, Brandon Caserta, became irate because he had been pulled over and ticketed for driving without insurance. “An injustice just happened to me,” he messaged the other suspects, according to evidence introduced at the hearing, and he wrote that he could find out where the two police officers lived and “tap them,” which Trask said is slang for killing them.
Sheriff defends Michigan conspirators as details emerge of plot’s scope, links to police and Trump campaign --Additional details are emerging about the plans and possible political connections of the fascist militiamen who were arrested last week for plotting to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. During a federal court hearing in Grand Rapids, Michigan Tuesday morning, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Special Agent Richard Trask announced that the Michigan conspirators also discussed killing Ralph Northam, the Democratic governor of Virginia. According to Trask, the plotters raised expanding their plans beyond Michigan when they met in Dublin, Ohio in June. The FBI has not yet released details of the group’s contacts in Ohio, Virginia or Wisconsin, where the plotters planned to put Whitmer on trial and kill her after capturing her at her vacation home in northern Michigan. According to a CNN report, Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf, leading member of the fascist Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (CSPOA), openly defended the actions of the plotters and claimed they were legal. “A lot of people are angry with the governor and they want her arrested,” Leaf said. “So are they trying to arrest or was it a kidnap attempt? Because you can still, in Michigan if it’s a felony, you can still make a felony arrest. And it doesn’t say if you are in elected office that you are exempt from that arrest. So I have to look at it from that angle.” Leaf also admitted that he had participated in rallies with two of the defendants, Michael and William Null, on multiple occasions. He defended the role of the militia, saying, “Well, you look at the media itself and the originations of the militia. They have more of a legal standing in this country than the agencies that arrested them.” Urban Milwaukee reported yesterday that prominent CSPOA member and Trump spokesman David Clarke, former sheriff of Milwaukee County, traveled to Michigan in April to address a crowd of anti-lockdown protestors. The article is titled, “Did David Clarke Inspire Michigan Militia?” It explains: “In mid-April, when protestors gathered in Lansing to urge resistance to pandemic restrictions put in place by Whitmer, Clarke was a featured speaker.” A number of the conspirators attended this rally. It is not known if any of them met with Clarke. These statements come as new facts are emerging that raise additional questions about the connections of the plotters themselves.
Mitt Romney directly calls out Trump for fueling 'hate-filled morass' in U.S. politics - Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) has apparently had enough.In a statement released Tuesday, Romney said that, as the November election nears, he is "troubled" by the American political landscape, which he argues has transformed from a place of "spirited debate" into a "vile, vituperative, hate-filled morass that is unbecoming of any free nation."Romney directly called out President Trump for insulting his political opponents — even after the discovery of a plot to kidnap one of them — and calling for former President Barack Obama's imprisonment. He also said Democrats "launch blistering attacks of their own," though he clarified he believes former Vice President Joe Biden, the party's presidential nominee, "refuses to stoop as low as others." All of this, he said, has been amplified by the media on the left and right, and he suggested the "rabid attacks" could have severe consequences if people "take the small and predictable step from intemperate word to dangerous action." With that in mind, Romney urged all leaders in the country, political or otherwise, to "lower the heat" and "tone it down."
Email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to dad -- Hunter Biden introduced his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden, to a top executive at a Ukrainian energy firm less than a year before the elder Biden pressured government officials in Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating the company, according to emails obtained by The Post.The never-before-revealed meeting is mentioned in a message of appreciation that Vadym Pozharskyi, an adviser to the board of Burisma, allegedly sent Hunter Biden on April 17, 2015, about a year after Hunter joined the Burisma board at a reported salary of up to $50,000 a month. “Dear Hunter, thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father and spent [sic] some time together. It’s realty [sic] an honor and pleasure,” the email reads.An earlier email from May 2014 also shows Pozharskyi, reportedly Burisma’s No. 3 exec, asking Hunter for “advice on how you could use your influence” on the company’s behalf.The blockbuster correspondence — which flies in the face of Joe Biden’s claim that he’s “never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings” — is contained in a massive trove of data recovered from a laptop computer. The computer was dropped off at a repair shop in Biden’s home state of Delaware in April 2019, according to the store’s owner.Other material extracted from the computer includes a raunchy, 12-minute video that appears to show Hunter, who’s admitted struggling with addiction problems, smoking crack while engaged in a sex act with an unidentified woman, as well as numerous other sexually explicit images.The customer who brought in the water-damaged MacBook Pro for repair never paid for the service or retrieved it or a hard drive on which its contents were stored, according to the shop owner, who said he tried repeatedly to contact the client.The shop owner couldn’t positively identify the customer as Hunter Biden, but said the laptop bore a sticker from the Beau Biden Foundation, named after Hunter’s late brother and former Delaware attorney general. Photos of a Delaware federal subpoena given to The Post show that both the computer and hard drive were seized by the FBI in December, after the shop’s owner says he alerted the feds to their existence.
Mainstream media ignores, downplays New York Post bombshell on Hunter Biden - The mainstream media went into overdrive to dismiss Wednesday's New York Post bombshell revealing damning emails allegedly found on Hunter Biden's computer, with some outlets simply ignoring the development and others doing their best to cast the report as dubious.The New York Post report, entitled “Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad,” touched on suggestions that the former vice president’s son had unscrupulous financial and business ties to a natural gas firm in Ukraine -- Burisma Holdings -- and that his father later stepped in to have a probing prosecutor fired for looking into the matter. The article, which Fox News hasn’t independently verified in full, also claimed that the outlet had been given emails showing Hunter had introduced his father to a top executive at the energy firm, less than a year before the prosecutor was forced out. If true, the developments could be extremely damning to the Democrat less than three weeks before the election, but many media organizations were shockingly incurious about the October surprise. CNN completely ignored the story on Wednesday, somehow managing to fill its airtime while also skipping almost the entirety of the historic Amy Coney Barrett hearing. The controversy escalated throughout the day after both Facebook and Twitter began suppressing the Post's report on their platforms, claiming it violated their policies against hacking and publishing certain private information, sparking major backlash from conservative journalists and lawmakers. Twitter’s own CEO Jack Dorsey even admitted they botched the situation.
Rudy Giuliani Promises To Share More "Private Text Messages" From "The Biden Crime Family" --As the furor over Twitter and Facebook's attempts to censor Wednesday morning's New York Post bombshell intensifies, Rudy Giuliani, who was named as the source of the documents in the NY Post story, just dropped a new video on Twitter where he outlines some of the alleged transgressions of "the Biden Crime Family". Earlier, the NYP exposed never-before-publicized emails suggesting that Joe Biden's involvement with his son's business endeavors was much more active than he led the world to believe.In other words, if the emails are genuine (and nobody has offered any credible evidence yet to suggest that they aren't) then it's clear the Biden lied about having never discussed business with his son. In a tweet, Giuliani confirmed that he has more material that has yet to see the light of day, and teased the public that it would soon be made available on his website, which he said he launched to stop big tech from censoring the story.The emails obtained from Hunter Biden’s hard drive reveal Joe Biden lied about Burisma, and more. Tonight I react and share a private text message that describes the ongoing schemes by the Biden Crime Family.HERE: https://t.co/1SAwTyEwk9 pic.twitter.com/9xPewCChWN— Rudy W. Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) October 14, 2020 He teased more evidence and outlined more allegations against not only Hunter Biden, but "the Biden Crime family", which he alleged benefited personally (and in the form of large payouts) from Joe Biden's various "point man" posts during his time as vice president.Giuliani starts off with Hunter, first relitigating the scandals in Ukraine and China, before claiming that Hunter Biden is was not a recovering crack addict at the time he was making these deals, but an active crack addict, a label Giuliani applied with emphasis.He went on to claim that some of the photos he has revealed, and more material he has yet to publish (though he teased that more would be coming soon) make Hunter Biden and the activities of the "Biden Crime Family" a national security risk, by making Biden liable for blackmail."Every time Joe Biden was named point man by Barack Obama, Joe Biden negotiated for the United States. Each time he negotiated, he failed. Each time, the Biden Crime family got millions of dollars from that country," Giuliani said.
"I Wanted It Out Of My Shop" - Computer Repairman Shares Why He Gave Laptop With Hunter Biden's Emails To The FBI - The Delaware computer repair shop owner who turned over the Apple Macbook Pro containing Hunter Biden's emails, photos and (according to Rudy Giuliani) a sex tape featuring Hunter Biden and another woman has come out to the public in an interview with Fox News. John Paul Mac Isaac told Fox News that he is legally blind, and therefore he "can't be 100% sure" that the individual who dropped off the laptop was Hunter Biden. But when he was backing up the hard drive, he stumbled upon "disturbing" images, including "pornography", that freaked him out. Apparently, although Isaac's blindness prevented him from positively ID-ing Hunter Biden, it didn't stop him from viewing the contents of the hard drive.Although it was only April 2019 at this point, Joe Biden was already considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Isaac quickly became frightened, and started to worry about shadowy figures "coming back" for the laptop. To be sure, Fox News reported that whether Hunter Biden was indeed the owner of the laptop "has yet to be substantiated"."I just don't know what to say, or what I'm allowed to say,” Isaac said. “I know that I saw, I saw stuff. And I was concerned. I was concerned that somebody might want to come looking for this stuff eventually and I wanted it out of my shop."During the interview, Isaac rejected the notion that the laptop was an "attempt to set him up" (perhaps with hacked photos and emails implanted in the hard drive?). The man whom Isaac believes to be Hunter Biden dropped off three laptops at his shop in April 2019, but only one was salvageable. Isaac said the customer never returned for the laptop, and, after being unable to get in touch with the customer, Isaac began looking through the contents of the hard drive. He searched the emails by keyword in June or July. "If I'm somebody that has no journalistic ability, no detective ability or investigative ability and I was able to find stuff in a short period of time, somebody else should have been able to find something to show," Isaac said. Isaac contacted an "intermediary" about the laptop, and the intermediary then contacted the FBI. Isaac said the intermediary is somebody whom he has known "for decades", and declined to identify him beyond saying he was an American citizen. According to Isaac, the FBI first made a forensic copy of the laptop, then returned a few weeks later with a subpoena and confiscated it. After he stopped hearing back from the FBI, Isaac said he contacted several members of Congress, who did not respond, at which point his intermediary reached out to Rudy Giuliani’s attorney, Robert Costello.
Remember This Date — October 14, 2020 - Dave Cohen - Today Twitter and Facebook would not allow anyone on their platforms to link to the New York Post storywhich seems to show that Joe Biden lied about his and his son's corrupt connections to the criminally-run Ukrainian gas company Burisma. The story was published yesterday on October 14, 2020. Remember this date.Let's sum up the meaning of this—
- Facebook and Twitter are interfering in the U.S. election to support the Democrats and making no bones about it — they are daring us to stop them.
- Facebook and Twitter have declared that truth is whatever they say it is.
- Facebook and Twitter have declared their right to apply authoritarian control of what information you get to see on their platforms
- Facebook and Twitter have decided that a well-informed citizenry is antithetical to their interests, but free speech and your right to access the information you need to make informed voting decisions is the bedrock of our democracy.
- Therefore, Facebook and Twitter have officially and arbitrarily decided that some form of authoritarian governanceis generally preferable to our current democratic form of government (actually, we are a republic, but we can vote).
Again, Facebook (Zuckerberg) and Twitter (Dorsey) have just spit in your face. They are defiant and unrepentant. Are you going to take that lying down? Are you adults? Or are you children? Are you free people? Or are you sheep who believe and do as they are told? We will find out right now. If you get your news exclusively from those platforms, you are consenting to their authoritarian rule over you.
Feds investigating if alleged Hunter Biden emails connected to foreign intelligence operation: report | TheHill -- Federal authorities are investigating if emails allegedly discovered on a laptop at a Delaware repair shop discussing Democratic nominee Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden’s activities in Ukraine were connected to a foreign intelligence operation, NBC News reported Thursday night. Two people familiar with the matter told the network about the federal investigation.The FBI took the laptop and a hard drive through a grand jury subpoena that was later published by the New York Post, a conservative newspaper. The FBI declined to comment to The Hill on the reported probe, citing its standard practice of not confirming or denying an investigation. The New York Post published several stories about the alleged emails, including one that hinted at an alleged meeting between Joe Biden and Vadym Pozharsky an adviser for the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, where Hunter Biden served on the board. The Biden campaign has maintained the meeting did not occur.The t abloid said it retrieved the documents used for the story from President Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. It reported that the information was discovered on a laptop left at a repair shop in April 2019 and never picked up.The Post faced criticism and questions about sourcing for the story, prompting Twitter and Facebook to limit sharing of the article. Twitter said that the article violated its hacked materials policy. It is unclear what led Facebook to limit the article. The move prompted backlash from Republican lawmakers against the tech giants. Hunter Biden’s attorney George Mesires said in a statement to NBC News that “We have no idea where this came from, and certainly cannot credit anything that Rudy Giuliani provided to the New York Post, but what I do know for certain is that this purported meeting never happened.”
US intelligence analysts predicted stolen Burisma emails would be leaked in October: report | TheHill - U.S. intelligence analysts last month reportedly contacted several people with knowledge of the January email hack of Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings due to predictions that the emails would be leaked in the form of an “October surprise,” according to The New York Times. The Times’s reporting follows the Wednesday release of a New York Post article that includes allegations regarding Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and Ukraine based on an email reportedly retrieved from the hard drive of a laptop dropped off at a computer repair shop in Delaware in April 2019.The Post mentioned that a store owner, whom the Daily Beast identified later Wednesday evening as John Paul Mac Isaac from Wilmington, Del., provided a copy of the laptop’s hard drive to President Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani before it was seized by the FBI.Twitter and Facebook both took steps to limit the spread of the article on their platforms Wednesday over questions on the story’s sourcing, with a spokesperson for Twitter telling The Hill at the time that the decision was made based on the platform’s hacked materials policy.In January, the Times first reported of Russian hacking aimed at Burisma, where Biden’s son Hunter Biden served on the board. The Times said that hacking attempts began in early November 2019, around the same time that the House was investigating a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during which Trump asked Zelensky to investigate the Bidens.Security experts told the Times in January that the hackers’ findings, as well as what they were looking for, remained unclear, but the timing indicated they could have been in search of the same sort of potentially embarrassing material on the family Trump sought when he asked Zelensky to launch an investigation.On Wednesday, the Times reported that intelligence analysts began looking into a potential leak of the stolen emails in September out of concern that the material would be used along with forged records to hurt Joe Biden’s chances in the November presidential election. Wednesday’s Post report had alleged that the older Biden met with a Burisma adviser, which Trump and his allies jumped on as evidence for their repeated claims that Hunter Biden benefited from his father’s top role in the White House.
Biden would be good for oil sector, Goldman Sachs says - With his $2 trillion plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, Joe Biden might seem a far from ideal president for the Texas oil and gas industry. But new analysis by Goldman Sachs says that compared with a second term of the Trump administration, a Biden presidency could be a positive for U.S. oil and gas drillers because tougher regulations on hydraulic fracturing would likely reduce production, raising crude prices. "We do not expect the upcoming U.S. elections to derail our bullish forecasts for oil and gas prices, with a Blue Wave likely to be in fact a positive catalyst,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note Sunday, according to CNBC. "Headwinds to U.S. oil and gas production would rise further under a Joe Biden administration, even if the candidate has struck a centrist tone." In the thick of a coronavirus pandemic that has decimated global oil demand, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was trading around $40 per barrel Monday. Without a sharp rise in economic activity or a cut in global supply, prices could remain low for many months, if not years, to come. That has prompted some in Texas to raise the prospect that the state's Railroad Commission could regulate production again — something it has not done since the 1970s — to limit a massive crude glut coming out of the Permian Basin. Biden's move to toughen rules on oil and gas drilling could have a similar effect, by raising the costs of production and pushing out less efficient drillers. Democrats in Texas are already jumping on the analysis, sending an email blast to supporters and media Monday. "To save Texas energy, we must elect Democrats in November," Texas Democratic Party Communications Director Abhi Rahman said in a statement. "Texas Democrats believe in an ‘all of the above’ energy approach. Both our oil and gas and renewable energy sectors will make sure Texas remains one of the world’s greatest energy producers." President Donald Trump has made growing the U.S. oil and gas industry a priority in his first term, loosening environmental regulations that industry at-large has long complained about. But the impact of such policies is likely to be, "modest at best" over the next four years, Goldman analysts wrote, "given the more powerful shift in investor focus" away from fossil fuels.
What Did Billionaire Leon Black of Apollo Get for >$50 Million in Fees to Jeffrey Epstein? - Yves Smith - It turns out that the smoke around private equity kingpin Leon Black’s business dealings with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was a sign of a real fire. Four sources told the New York Times that Black wired Epstein at least $50 million in fees after Epstein’s 2008 conviction; two said Black could have paid as much as $75 million.Alert readers may recall that this is roughly the same level of money that Apollo spent in bribes, um, placement agent fees, to CalPERS. It’s never been made clear what exactly Apollo thought it would be getting for the $48 million it gave to former board member Al Villalobos, some of which wound as cash in paper bags to CalPERS CEO Fred Buenrostro, who is now in Federal prison.The relationship between Black and Epstein is murkier and more troubling since it’s not clear at all what Black thought he was getting from Epstein. Keep in mind all the fees in question were paid by Black personally, not by Apollo. Black claims he was buying investment and tax advice. This is an insult to intelligence. First, someone at Black’s level could easily hire the very best tax attorneys in the world, and similarly any financiers who had know-how that Black might value. Second, the fees Black paid to Epstein are astonishingly rich, particularly since Epstein didn’t have a brand name or even any meaningful credentials. Third, Black admits much of what Epstein supposedly did for him couldn’t be relied upon; substantial areas of his “work” had to be redone or were at best napkin doodles that had to be fleshed out by real pros. From the Times: “Mr. Black received personal trusts and estates planning advice as well as family office philanthropy and investment services from several financial and legal advisers, including Mr. Epstein, during a six-year period, between 2012 and 2017,” said Stephanie Pillersdorf, a spokeswoman for Mr. Black. “The trusts and estate planning advice was vetted by leading auditors and law firms.” Fourth, private equity barons are notorious skinflints; the idea that Black would pay so much for an uncredentialed individual with minimal relevant expertise and virtually no other clients strains credulity. Remember how Apollo was caught out keeping law firm discounts for itself rather than sharing them with its limited partners? This sort of chiseling is rampant in private equity. Moreover, there’s a guilty look to how Black went about paying Epstein. If Black were paying professional fees for investment and tax advice, even at a ludicrously high rate, there would be no reason to do it in such a stealthy manner. Again from the Times: Portions of the report reviewed by The Times describe a payment of $22.5 million in 2017 by a company called BV70 LLC, which the bank said owned Mr. Black’s yacht, to Plan D, the company that managed Mr. Epstein’s Gulfstream jet. When an employee in Deutsche Bank’s anti-financial-crime division inquired about the payment, she was told by another bank employee that it was a fee for consulting services provided by Southern Trust Company, one of the dozens of entities Mr. Epstein operated in the Virgin Islands. There was no explanation for why the payment went to Plan D.
Elizabeth Holmes Loses Last Ditch Bid To Have Criminal Charges Against Her Thrown Out - Disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes lost her most recent challenge to throw out the criminal charges against her this week. She had been seeking dismissal of "various counts" of the charges against her, stemming from the allegations that she engaged in a massive fraud while running Theranos. U.S. District Judge Edward Davila in San Jose, California denied Holmes' motions in an order issued Tuesday. The judge did, however, re-iterate a previous ruling that physicians were not victims of the alleged fraud by Holmes, according to Bloomberg Law. The judge said he expects prosecutors not to argue that Holmes, or her ex-boyfriend Sunny Balwani, should be convicted of wire fraud based on any scheme to defraud doctors. Recall, back in February, we noted that the same judge had dropped several charges against Holmes, but had allowed wire fraud charges to stand. The court ruled that since the tests were paid by customers' medical insurance companies, that the patients were not deprived of any money or property in using Theranos' blood testing services. The court also found back in February that there was "no evidence" to show that Holmes and Balwani directed doctors to make misrepresentations to their patients. The original indictment alleges that Holmes and Balwani knew that Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate results, yet they encouraged doctors and patients to use their tests regardless. They were both indicted in June of 2018 on 11 counts of conspiracy and wire fraud.
Citi’s Recidivist Rule-Breaking and Incompetence Shows Persistence of Too Big/Complex to Fail Problem –Yes smith - Remember how lots of people, from Elizabeth Warren to Trump, and many before them, have called for breaking up the big banks? And that that hasn’t happened? We’ll use the latest round of regulatory wet-noodle lashing of Citigroup, the poster child of “too big to fail,” to help illuminate the supposed impediments to breaking up Big Tech. We’re now seeing a rehash of the “too complex to break up” assertions with the antitrust debates over Big Tech in the EU and even now in Congress. For instance, from tonight’s Wall Street Journal:Days before, Facebook Inc. produced its own document contending that breaking it up would be a “nonstarter” for a number of reasons, including that the company’s constituent parts are already too complicated and interconnected for any of them—Instagram, WhatsApp, its ad business—to be spun off as individual companies or walled off as separate divisions. “After many years of hard and costly work, Instagram and WhatsApp are now integrated into the same bespoke infrastructure that Facebook built from the ground up,” the company says in its report. I will defer to big corporate IT experts, but I have a lot of trouble buying the claim that it’s oh so hard to unscramble acquisitions, particularly with respect to any company acquired not all that long ago. In fact, you can regard the Facebook quote as a coded admission. Generally speaking, it’s much harder to combine businesses with substantial IT estates than separate them. So this isn’t a matter of “can’t be done”. Super rich and supposedly loaded with top Silicon Valley “talent” tech titans suddenly want you believe that they lack the money and the chops to do the job. I also question the “too hard to separate” claim with respect to Google and YouTube. Yes, it would cost money to hive off these operations, but divorces are expensive. Another claim is in divesting major businesses, the tech platform company would assert it was having to give valuable intellectual property to the company it excised. Even if true, 1. the divested company could pay licensing fees for say three to five years and 2. if this intellectual property were really oh so valuable, the divested company would have strong incentives to protect it too. Moreover, this “Oh we are so integrated” claim conveniently ignores the elephant in the room: Amazon Web Services, its cloud business. The cloud business is separate from the retail sales business from a commercial standpoint and any claims they can’t be separated should be regarded with prejudice. The real issue for Amazon is the cloud business is hugely profitable and the retail business, not much and not regularly (being cash flow positive due to paying merchants more slowly than it gets paid by consumers is a potential point bloody-minded regulators like the EU could attack).
Citi execs silent on cost of risk overhaul - Citigroup executives were hammered Tuesday by analysts seeking clarity about how much the company expects to spend to fix risk management and internal control issues, how long the overhaul will take and whether it will entail sweeping changes in Citi’s business model. But they provided few of those details during Citi’s third-quarter earnings call, which came seven days after the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency slapped the company with enforcement actions and a $400 million civil money penalty for failing to correct long-standing risk-related problems. CEO Michael Corbat and Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason tried to allay some of the concerns, saying Citi plans to improve profitability and shareholder returns while repairing its control systems. Corbat at one point defended the $2.2 trillion-asset company’s performance under his leadership when Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo asked why he hasn’t already stepped down to make way for incoming CEO Jane Fraser. Citigroup said last month that Corbat would retire in February and Fraser would succeed him. "I think it is important to the board [and] important to the company that we have a real transition,” Corbat said. “As you recall, my transition was about five minutes. And as part of this process, I did commit to the board that I'd stay throughout the year and close out the three-year plan, which we announced in 2017. … That allows Jane to be very much involved in terms of our financial plan." Yet neither Corbat nor Mason said how much it will cost or how long it will take, except that the effort will last years. Pressed by Mayo to provide more guidance around the anticipated total cost of the overhaul, Mason said Citi has been “quite responsible” at managing investments in the past several years and “people should expect that [the company] will continue to be responsible” with such investments. He said Citigroup has spent about $1 billion so far this year to enhance infrastructure, risk and controls. “It's hard to pinpoint a number, as you’ve said,” Mason said. “I would expect … that we would continue to increase our profitability. We will continue to improve our returns. But I can't [calculate] the number for you next year or the year after, except to say we are still running the firm.”
BankThink The high cost of giving banks too much slack - Karen Petrou - Details of Citigroup’s enforcement actions released last week by the Federal Reserve Board and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency make it clear that, in at least one very big case, problems seen were still problems that only got worse. The discretion the Fed and OCC still have to decide when and how to sanction big banks remains only after pitched battles in 2010 with members of Congress who didn’t trust regulators they thought were unduly captive. Many of these lawmakers are still sore losers. If they gain power in 2021, they’ll stop scolding and start legislating. They’ll have a lot of ammunition. The two Citi enforcement agreements are sobering reading. The supervisory orders lay out a litany of infractions going back to a 2013 Fed order on anti-money-laundering and proceed through a 2015 Fed order on foreign-exchange compliance; to a 2017 high-profile AML enforcement action, a 2019 OCC penalty for Fair Housing Act and other violations; a 2020 order from the OCC on flood-insurance violations; and finally, to what sounds like a drubbing at about the same time from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It’s true that supervisors tend to throw the book at malefactors when agencies are finally spurred into action. But the range of fundamental lapses laid out in the OCC’s order are unusually scathing in both detail and the extent to which fundamental, structural risk management, control and governance failings are detailed. None of these could have been new. Although virtually all of Washington’s bandwidth now is consumed by nonstop drama surrounding the president and the election, this perspective will not be lost on those in Congress and, indeed, in some of the supervisory agencies who want to see large banks held more quickly and sternly to account. What might Congress do now to ensure that crime is answered with punishment? And how might large banks ensure that justice is tempered, not just with mercy, but also knowledge? There is a strong tendency for bankers to circle the wagons when talk turns to prompt corrective action. Given the often contradictory and sometimes illusory conclusions examiners can reach, companies are understandably loath to allow their examiners to lower any booms. However, forbearance for poor internal practice inevitably leads to regulatory arbitrage and then to moral hazard, followed by heightened risk, as it seems to appear in a financial crisis every ten years or so. Lowest-common-denominator supervision affords lowest-common-denominator competitive advantage. This ultimately leads to shared political risk and still more regulatory burden, often without accompanying supervisory acumen. Self-regulation is an important safeguard, but it’s no substitute for meaningful enforcement. Without it, Congress will get really angry, supervisors will be granted no discretion, banks will be unduly chastised and regulation will accelerate.
Fed’s Quarles casts doubt on permanent capital relief for big banks — A senior Federal Reserve official appeared to throw cold water on hopes that the central bank will implement permanent relief sought by institutions in the calculation of a key capital measure. Regulators implemented an interim rule change in May to allow systemically important banks to exclude Treasury securities and deposits at Federal regional banks from the supplementary leverage ratio, a more demanding capital benchmark designed to limit risky activities. The temporary relief was meant to help institutions lend to customers feeling the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some have suggested that safe holdings like Treasurys and Fed reserves should never have been included in the leverage ratio at the outset. “Why would one need a capital buffer against reserves, which are worth one for one?” said Darrell Duffie, a professor of finance at Stanford University, on a panel for a virtual event sponsored by the CFA Institute. But Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles, speaking on the panel, said making the change permanent is not currently on the central bank's radar. “It is clear… that [the SLR] was a significant disincentive for banks to respond to the pressures on the Treasury market in March, and when we made that exemption, they were able to respond much more fully,” he said. “So I understand the desire to give thought to it but I would think it'd be premature to say that we ought to make that permanent currently.” While he cast doubt on permanent leverage ratio relief, Quarles described himself as a "proponent" of the Fed's establishing an overnight repurchase facility to support monetary policy. The SLR requires banks with more than $250 billion of assets to maintain an extra cushion of high-quality capital against an institution's total assets. Institutions subject to the requirement must maintain a minimum 3% ratio against their total leverage exposure, with even tougher requirements for the most complex firms. The temporary SLR relief — which will be in effect until March 2021 — was intended not only to enable banks to expand balance sheets but also to relieve some stresses in the functioning of the Treasury market. However, the Fed also estimated that the change would reduce the required amount of capital at bank holding companies by $76 billion. That drew backlash from some who felt that banks should refrain from shedding capital in the throes of a crisis. Duffie said during he believed the Fed should exempt reserves and Treasurys from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio, a non-risked-based capital requirement in which all assets are weighted equally. To compensate for the resulting reduction in banks' loss protection, he said the Fed could increase risk-based capital requirements. But Quarles suggested doing so would defeat the purpose of the SLR. “Once you start excepting out of the denominator everything that you think is safe — so first you begin with reserves, and then Treasurys, and then why not repo and then why not agencies and then why not other countries’ sovereigns?” he said. “And then you just go down the list of whatever people want to create a greater incentive for banks to hold, and you've just got another risk-based ratio.”
Fed's Kashkari says banks arguing against regulation ‘make stuff up’ - U.S. regulators are going in the wrong direction when it comes to banks, and the arguments banks use against stricter requirements amount to nonsense, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said. “The big banks will make all sorts of nonsensical arguments that it’s holding back lending. It’s all nonsense,” Kashkari said Thursday during a virtual event hosted by New York University, echoing comments he made in a recent speech. “Their arguments are just — you just make stuff up and you hope people believe it,” he added. Kashkari, who oversaw the 2008 bank bailouts as a then-Treasury official, has been outspoken in favor of higher capital requirements since he took over at the Minneapolis Fed in 2016. The U.S. central bank has instead relaxed some regulations since then under the direction of officials appointed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington by President Trump. “We are going in the wrong direction,” Kashkari said. “I think we should be tougher. I think we should have higher capital requirements on the biggest banks.” The Minneapolis Fed chief praised Lael Brainard, the lone Fed governor to be appointed to her current position by President Barack Obama, for speaking out against the majority in favor of tougher measures. Brainard is reportedly under consideration as a possible future Treasury secretary if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the Nov. 3 election.
JPMorgan Chase posts surprise jump in profit on lower credit costs - JPMorgan Chase, in its third quarter under the shadow of the pandemic, showed that the surge in trading is holding up — and so are borrowers. The biggest U.S. bank posted a surprise increase in earnings, fueled by a 30% jump in markets revenue as elevated volume kept its stock and bond traders busy. The lender also defied expectations by cutting its reserve for loan losses by $569 million, after adding $20 billion to the allowance in the first half, as charge-offs of bad loans were lower than a year ago. Those improvements and a 9% gain in investment banking fees led to the most profitable quarter of 2020. “The corporate & investment bank continues to be a big driver of firm performance,” Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in a statement Tuesday. “We maintained our credit reserves at $34 billion given significant economic uncertainty and a broad range of potential outcomes.” The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global economy, and bank investors have been waiting to see how much that translates into losses from soured loans. Delinquencies have remained low so far, helped by lenders’ forbearance programs and government stimulus efforts, but bank executives have warned that the effects could drag on for years. JPMorgan’s earnings hint at what’s to come when the rest of Wall Street reports results this week. The nation’s four biggest lenders probably set aside about an additional $10 billion for bad loans in the third quarter, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg prior to Tuesday’s results. Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Piepszak said in September that the bank’s third-quarter trading revenue would probably jump 20% from last year. The firm surpassed that as its $6.6 billion total was higher than the $6.15 billion analysts were expecting. Profit climbed 4% to $9.44 billion from $9.1 billion a year ago. The New York-based bank took a one-time charge to help cover the cost of a $920.2 million fine to resolve U.S. authorities’ claims of market manipulation by its precious metals and Treasury markets trading desks. JPMorgan previously said it had set aside about half of what it needed for the fine.
Hefty profits for top US banks as millions face social disaster - Big US banks reported much stronger than expected profits in the third quarter while wide layers of the population face misery and hardship. Buoyed by government cash poured into the financial markets, JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter profits of $9.44 billion, or $2.92 per share, well above the forecasts of economic experts. That figure compared with $4.76 billion last quarter and $9.08 billion one year ago. JP Morgan’s bond and stock trading operations accounted for a 20 percent year-over-year increase in revenues, offsetting declines in consumer loans and credit cards. The bank’s earnings rose despite a charge for $524 million for legal fees related to its criminal manipulation of global markets in commodities and US treasury notes. Citigroup reported $3.2 billion for the third quarter, despite a 13 percent drop in revenue from consumer banking as its trading and investment revenue rose 5 percent. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, also reported strong third quarter profits, which rose to $1.36 billion. Fueled by US Treasury cash, its assets under management increased to $7.8 trillion, which is an increase of 12 percent from the third quarter of last year. Other large US banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are expected to show healthy third quarter profits when their reports come out later this month. The strong results for the banks come in the midst of the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and mounting hardship across the US. The situation facing the unemployed is increasingly dire as the limited and inadequate support for the unemployed contained in the CARES Act long ago expired and funds released by the Trump administration for a $300 supplement are largely exhausted. Meanwhile, the US Treasury continues to pump cash into the financial markets, money that will have to be repaid at devastating cost to the working class in terms of social benefits, wages, working conditions and lives. The necessity of restarting production in order to repay the trillions handed over to the banks and corporations is the driving force behind the homicidal back-to-work policy of the US ruling class and governments around the world. This has led to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths, with the number of fatalities surpassing one million internationally and 221,000 in the US. Despite the reported decline in the official unemployment rate, September saw an unprecedented increase in the number of long-term unemployed, those out of work 27 weeks or longer. Some 2.4 million were classified as long-term unemployed last month, a rise of 781,000 since August. That represents 19.1 percent of the total unemployed. Alongside the growth in the number of long-term unemployed is the rise in permanent layoffs, indicating that many of the jobs lost during the pandemic are never coming back. The number of permanent job losses increased in September by 345,000, bringing total permanent job losses to 3.8 million. That number is 2.5 million higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Profits nearly double at Goldman on broad revenue strength - Goldman Sachs Group joined other big U.S. banks in cashing in on continuing pandemic-induced volatility, as the firm’s bond traders posted the biggest jump on Wall Street so far. Third-quarter revenue from buying and selling stocks and bonds increased 29%, driven by a 49% surge in fixed-income trading and mirroring similar gains reported Tuesday by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Revenue at each of Goldman’s four divisions rose from a year earlier, pushing earnings per share to a record that was almost twice as high as analysts predicted. Net income almost doubled from a year earlier to $3.62 billion. Earnings per share were a record $9.68, far surpassing analysts’ estimates for $5.53. Many investors were expecting Goldman to beat estimates, “but nowhere close to this order of magnitude, with strength coming from both high- and low-quality sources,” Steven Chubak, an analyst at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note. “Whatever your whisper number was, they crushed that, too.” Trading gains since the start of the pandemic have helped offset weakness in consumer businesses at the nation’s biggest banks, where loan-loss provisions piled up in the first half of the year. The bank’s lending portfolio stayed on the mend after a big writedown at the start of the year. The firm posted a surprise drop from a year earlier in its loan-loss provisions, echoing its bigger rivals in socking away a much smaller amount for credit losses. The stockpile amounted to just $278 million in the third quarter, down from $1.6 billion for the previous three months. The decline was mostly tied to corporate and consumer borrowers paying down loans, Goldman said. Goldman’s consumer operation cracked $1 billion in trailing 12-month revenue for the first time since it started operations four years ago. Goldman’s consumer deposits climbed at a slower pace than in the second quarter. Its money management arm posted a 3% drop in assets under management, mostly driven by a decline in liquidity products.
If You’re Baffled as to Why JPMorgan Chase’s Board Hasn’t Sacked Jamie Dimon as the Bank Racked Up 5 Felony Counts – Here’s Your Answer - Pam Martens - For years we’ve been trying to figure out why JPMorgan’s Board of Directors hasn’t sacked its Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, as the bank racked up two felony counts in 2014 for its failure to alert U.S. regulators to glaring red flags in the bank account it held for Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme; one felony count in 2015 for rigging foreign exchange markets; and two more felony counts just last month for rigging the precious metals and U.S. Treasury market. (The bank admitted to all five counts.) In addition, the bank came under another criminal investigation in 2012 and 2013 when it lost $6 billion of its bank depositors’ money gambling in credit derivatives in London (the London Whale scandal).Turns out Jamie Dimon has been taking verygood care of the Directors on his Board and they have been taking very good care of Dimon – turning him into a billionaire, notwithstanding the worst criminal record of any major bank in the history of the United States.The JPMorgan Chase Board of Directors has a stunning number of incestuous conflicts of interest, few of which have not been properly spelled out to shareholders. Others have never been mentioned to shareholders.Take the case of Stephen Burke, the current Chairman of NBCUniversal and former CEO of NBCUniversal from 2011 to 2019. Burke has sat on the Board of JPMorgan Chase since 2004 as a fixture on the bank’s Compensation and Management Development Committee which has turned Dimon into a billionaire despite the trail of felony counts, criminal fines and scandals under his “leadership.” Also for the past 16 years, Burke has sat on the Board’s Corporate Governance and Nominating Committee and is currently its Chair.On September 15 of this year, JPMorgan Chase issued a press release stating that “The Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase & Co. today announced that the independent directors of the Board have appointed Stephen B. Burke as Lead Independent Director, effective January 1, 2021.” That announcement came more than a month after the Hollywood Reporter wrote that an SEC filing indicated that Burke was to remain an employee of NBCUniversal’s parent, Comcast, under a five-year contract that runs through the end of 2025, with annual compensation of $350,000. Burke has been an employee of Comcast and/or its subsidiary NBCUniversal, for the entire time he has served on the JPMorgan Chase Board.
Leveraged lending has avoided pandemic hit. Will that last? - — When the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S. economy in March, some banking industry watchers feared an explosion of defaults on loans to highly leveraged companies. While such an explosion has not materialized, many observers believe the corporate debt market is not out of the woods yet. The default rate on leveraged loans reached 4% in July, according to S&P Global, higher than the 1% rate set a year earlier but nowhere near the double digits some had predicted from the crisis. A March report by Fitch Ratings had projected a cumulative 15% default rate in 2020 and 2021. Some have attributed the benign default numbers to tightened lending standards, higher fees for corporate borrowers and a decline in overall leveraged loan issuance. Meanwhile, relief for businesses provided by the $2 trillion stimulus package in March helped stabilize credit quality, observers say. But a lack of further fiscal stimulus could lead to higher default rates, experts warn. “At some point in the new year, you're going to see that some businesses just … need additional support,” said Ellen Snare, a partner at King & Spalding. Leveraged loans skyrocketed following the 2008 financial crisis and are estimated globally now to total anywhere from $1 trillion to $3 trillion. Regulators repeatedly raised concerns about lax underwriting driving the boom, although the bulk of the exposure is in the nonbank sector. Many saw the coronavirus crisis as having the potential to lay bare the risks of the leveraged lending market. In the low-interest-rate years following the 2008 financial crisis, a record amount of businesses have loaded up on debt, and the global leveraged loan market is estimated to be anywhere from $1 trillion to $3 trillion. Before COVID-19, the default rate on leveraged loans was remarkably low. And although data has suggested that delinquencies may be rising — and even topped 4% in July by issuer count, according to S&P Global —so far they are not to the extent that may had originally feared when the pandemic plunged the U.S. economy into a recession. But without more support from Congress to provide economic relief to businesses, there could be a dangerous trickle-down effect, said Snare.
M&T Bank fined for flood insurance violations -- The Federal Reserve has penalized M&T Bank in Buffalo, N.Y., for violating certain National Flood Insurance Program requirements, according to an enforcement action released Thursday. The $139.5 billion-asset bank has agreed to pay a $546,000 penalty, which will be passed on to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The bank did not immediately reply to a request for comment, and the Fed did not comment further on the enforcement action. Federal banking regulators are in charge of penalizing banks that offer loans in violation of certain requirements under the National Flood Act, such as failing to obtain flood insurance on the underlying property or not meeting escrow requirements for policies. There are also requirements around specific notices banks must give to borrowers when their property is in a flood hazard area and what options they have for insurance. Banks are not required to keep up to date with changes in flood maps. But if at any point during the life of the loan it is discovered that flood insurance coverage is deficient, the borrower must be notified and a “force placed” insurance policy must be purchased if the borrower doesn’t obtain one, according to the Fed’s regulations. The agencies collect fines of up to $2,000 per violation.
USAA's regulatory troubles now include OCC fine, CRA downgrade — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has ordered USAA Federal Savings Bank to pay an $85 million fine for shortcomings in its risk management and compliance with laws protecting service members. The penalty announced Wednesday is another troubling sign for the San Antonio bank after a 2019 consent order by the OCC identified information technology and internal control failures related to alleged violations of the Military Lending Act and Servicemembers Civil Relief Act. The $100 billion-asset institution caters to members of the military and their families. The OCC fine also comes weeks after the regulator disclosed on Oct. 1 that USAA Federal had received a “needs to improve” rating on its most recent Community Reinvestment Act evaluation, which is a rarity, especially for such a large institution. The evaluation, dated March 2019, cited evidence of 546 violations of the SCRA, including failing to provide protections to reservists and wrongful vehicle repossessions. The agency also pointed to evidence of over 50 violations of the Military Lending Act. “Simply put, we have fallen short of our high standards and those of our members and our regulators,” said Wayne Peacock, the bank’s president and CEO, in a statement. “As we grew quickly over the last decade, we never wavered from our commitment to serve members. However, we did not sufficiently invest in the capabilities and expertise necessary to meet regulatory requirements and evolving business needs.” The OCC’s action administering the fine said USAA Federal engaged “in unsafe or unsound practices related to the Bank’s compliance risk management program and IT risk governance program that resulted in numerous violations of law.” The agency said USAA Federal has consented to the order. The SCRA provides protections to military service members on duty overseas and covers issues such as credit card interest rates and foreclosures. The MLA imposes a 36% interest rate cap on loan products for active-duty military service members as well as their spouses and dependents. “The Bank has failed to implement and maintain an effective compliance risk management program and an effective IT risk governance program commensurate with the Bank’s size, complexity, and risk profile,” the order says. “The Bank has deficiencies in all three lines of defense (first-line business units, independent risk management and internal audit) in its compliance risk management program.” The bank is in the process of remediating violations of the MLA and SCRA under the 2019 consent order.
Wells Fargo Fires Over 100 Employees For Illegally Pocketing Virus Relief Funds - First JPMorgan admitted that over 500 of its generously paid employees had "illegally pocketed" covid-relief funds - and then summarily fired most of them - and now it's chronic lawbreaking recidivist Wells Fargo's turn.The bank, whose stock tumbled today after reporting dismal results and then was hit with even more selling after cutting its net interest income outlook, has fired more than 100 employees for illegally getting covid relief funds which were meant to help small businesses, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar. Warren Buffett's favorite bank uncovered dozens of employees who defrauded the Small Business Administration "by making false representations in applying for coronavirus relief funds for themselves," according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. Similar to JPMorgan, the abuse was tied to the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program and was outside the employees’ roles at the bank, according to the memo."We have terminated the employment of those individuals and will cooperate fully with law enforcement," David Galloreese, Wells Fargo’s head of human resources, said in the memo. Wells Fargo’s actions follow JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s finding that more than 500 employees tapped the EIDL program which hands out as much as $10,000 in emergency advances that don't have to be repaid, and dozens did so improperly.The bank “will continue to look into these matters,” Galloreese added, saying the employees’ abuse didn’t involve customers... for once. "If we identify additional wrongdoing by employees, we will take appropriate action."As Bloomberg notes banks were urged by the SBA to look out for suspicious deposits from the EIDL program to their customers and even their own staff, after an analysis identified that at least $1.3 billion was sent out from the SBA for suspicious payments. While the program offers loans to businesses, much of the concern has focused on its advances of as much as $10,000 that don’t have to be repaid.
$10.6 Billion Hedge Fund Closing After Massive "Value" Losses -- After keeping up neck and neck with "growth" for much of the first half of the past decade, the past five years have been nothing short of a living hell for value investors, underperforming the recent and still ongoing surge in "growth" by more than 50%. And nowhere has the pain been more acute than for pureplay quant funds who had the misfortune of over-allocating to the value factor, which however as shown above, has generated virtually no alpha for the past four years. In retrospect, it is surprising that more funds didn't shutter amid an exodus of disgusted investors who failed to grasp that in a centrally-planned world, value strategies - which rely on properly functioning markets and arbitrage neither of which exists in manipulated, planned markets - no longer work. As such it is certainly not surprising that one prominent quant fund, the $10.6 billion Philadelphia-based AJO Partners (which bizarrely even names all of its 51 clients), will shutter after suffering "steep losses from its value strategy" according to Bloomberg. In a letter from founder Ted Aronson, the firm announced it would stop trading on Nov 30, putting the 36-year-old firm out to pasture. "We still believe there is a future for value investing; sadly, the future is unlikely to arrive fast enough — for us," wrote Aronson who plans to retire. "The better part of valor is to return the assets and call it a day," Aronson added, "Our clients are exclusively large sophisticated institutional clients, so they have superior alternatives. C’est la vie."
NCUA moves to loosen derivatives rule for credit unions - While derivatives emerged as a bad word during the financial crisis, the National Credit Union Administration believes its share insurance fund may be safer if more credit unions used them. NCUA’s governing board unanimously approved a proposed revision to its six-year-old derivative rule that would permit larger credit unions to enter into agreements without first obtaining agency approval. The move opens a 60-day comment period, after which the agency can take final action. Thomas Fay, a senior capital markets specialist at NCUA, called the original rule, approved in January 2014 “intentionally prescriptive,” given the industry’s limited experience with derivatives. There have been no material problems since then, “so a more streamlined modernized regulation is appropriate,” Fay said. Indeed, “if there were greater use to hedge against interest rate risk, it could be a beneficial public policy option,” Fay said. Currently, just 23 federal credit unions have active derivative contracts, according to NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood. “I know the word derivative can have a very negative connotation,” Hood said. Both the current and proposed rules limit credit unions’ derivative use to managing interest rates. But the proposed rule scales back restrictions on the types of derivative products and eliminates regulatory limits on the amount of derivatives an FCU may purchase. To date, most of the derivative transactions credit unions have entered into have been interest rate swaps, Hood said. Smaller institutions interested in derivatives would still have to obtain NCUA's permission, but credit unions with assets of $500 million or more and a CAMEL component rating of one or two would be allowed to execute contracts on their own. The rule applies to federal credit unions but state-chartered institutions have to notify NCUA of any derivative use.
Why the pandemic is making cybersecurity even harder for credit unions - Earlier this year, credit unions across the country completed a task that was previously almost unthinkable — they managed to get the majority of employees working remotely with little notice. But this accomplishment has created new cybersecurity concerns. Since the coronavirus became widespread earlier this year, institutions have had to be vigilant about a variety of issues, including new scams that utilize the crisis to try and trick consumers and workers into making a costly mistake. That has been made even more difficult as employees may still not be housed in an office and instead could be spread out working remotely. “Work from home suddenly meant that many institutions had to significantly beef up their remote access options for branch staff and others that were used to working out of physical locations,” said John Meyer, senior director at Cornerstone Advisors. “We were impressed with how rapidly our credit unions responded to this challenge. Fraudsters, though, are finding ways to exploit the holes in the remote workforce.” The following are some cybersecurity concerns that credit unions need to keep in mind for the rest of this year and into 2021.
CFPB reverses course on marketing services agreements - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has pulled its previous guidance regarding whether marketing services agreements comply with anti-kickback rules. In a frequently asked questions post, the CFPB stated that these agreements do not violate Section 8 of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. While the FAQ does not change much on a practical level, it represents a change in attitude by the bureau from when it was headed by Richard Cordray. His CFPB never declared MSAs to be illegal but had expressed some level of hostility towards them. On Sept. 11, the Mortgage Bankers Association, along with the American Land Title Association, the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders and the Real Estate Service Providers Council sent a letter to CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger asking that a 2015 Cordray bulletin on the topic be withdrawn and replaced "with a reassertion that the real estate industry should follow long established best practices under RESPA and associated case law."It was the latest of several efforts undertaken over the past few years to get the bureau to change its position on MSAs, said Justin Wiseman, the MBA's associate vice president and regulatory council. "Eliminating that 2015 bulletin was the best thing that came out of this, even if nothing changed on a practical level," said Mitch Kider, the chairman and managing partner of Weiner Brodsky Kider, who represented PHH Mortgage in a major challenge to the CFPB's authority on MSA compliance. That bulletin, he said, was not based on the law itself and deviated from a 2010 Department of Housing and Urban Development interpretation on MSAs. "It is very helpful to the industry and gives them a clear message of what the issues are surrounding Section 8 and how to, at least preliminarily, analyze some of those issues," Kider said of CFPB’s recent post. More importantly, "no new law is being made with these FAQs," he added.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.32%" --Note: This is as of October 4th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.32% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 49 basis points from 6.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 6.32% as of October 4, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.2 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types. With the forbearance program for federally backed loans under the CARES Act reaching the six-month mark, many borrowers saw their forbearance plans expire because they did not contact their servicer. Another reason for expirations was that borrower information needed to determine an appropriate loss mitigation option was not yet in place,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Borrowers with federally backed mortgages need to contact their servicer to obtain another six months of reprieve if they are still impacted by the pandemic. As of now, some borrowers are exiting forbearance without making contact or without a plan in place. Servicers are making outreach efforts to attempt to work with these borrowers to determine the best options for them, including an extension.”Added Fratantoni, “On a more positive note, nearly two-thirds of borrowers who exited forbearance remained current on their payments, repaid their forborne payments, or moved into a payment deferral plan. All of these borrowers have been able to resume – or continue – their pre-pandemic monthly payments.” ...By stage, 25.50% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 72.97% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.53% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.08% to 0.11%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly Following Large Decline Last Week - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of October 13th.From Forbearance Volumes Increase Slightly Following Largest Weekly Drop: Following last week’s largest weekly decline in COVID-19-related forbearances since the pandemic began, the market saw a slight uptick of 19k loans in forbearance this week. New data released today from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that though volumes increased week-over-week, there is still reason to be optimistic about the state of U.S. mortgages in forbearance. We are seeing the national forbearance rate hold steady at 5.6% week-over-week, with just under 3 million homeowners remaining in active forbearance. This number is down from a peak of 4.76 million in late May. All in, there are currently 708k fewer loans in forbearance now than the same time last month, which is a 19% decline. Of the remaining 2,988,000 current forbearance cases, 78% have had their terms extended with their servicer.
NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October - From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 86.8 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of October 13: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 86.8 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by October 13 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 2.4-percentage point, or 271,000-household decrease from the share who paid rent through October 13, 2019 and compares to 86.2 percent that had paid by September 13, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “While the broader multifamily industry continues to show its resilience at a national level, other metrics in the industry are beginning to highlight the growing localized financial distress due to inaction by political leaders in Washington,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 13th of the month. CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. There has been some decline in households paying rent, but rent payments are not falling off a cliff.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2020.... The Refinance Index decreased 0.3 percent from the previous week and was 44 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 24 percent higher than the same week one year ago.Mortgage applications for refinances and home purchases both decreased slightly last week, despite the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining to a new MBA survey low of 3.00 percent. Applications for government mortgages offset some of the overall decline by increasing 3 percent, driven by a solid gain in government purchase applications and an 11 percent jump in VA refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinance and purchase activity continue to run well ahead of last year’s pace, fueled by record-low rates and strong homebuyer demand. Housing supply is a challenge for many aspiring buyers, but activity should continue to stay strong the rest of the year.”The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 3.00 percent from 3.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.
House Prices and Inventory - It is difficult to measure housing demand directly, but inventory is fairly easy to track. Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here. I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. And inventory has been decreasing in many areas recently, and pushing up house prices. This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999). There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph). If months-of-supply is high, prices decline. If months-of-supply is low, prices rise.For August, the NAR reported months-of-supply at 3.0 months. This is very low, and based on recent reports, months-of-supply might decrease further in September. Note that Case-Shiller is through July. The recent CoreLogic report indicated prices were up even more in August, and Zillow is forecasting the Case-Shiller Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Significantly in August.
House Prices to National Average Wage Index --One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income. For this graph I decided to look at house prices and the National Average Wage Index released yesterday for 2019 from Social Security. This graph shows the ratio of house price indexes divided by the National Average Wage Index (the Wage index is first divided by 1000).This uses the annual average National Case-Shiller index since 1976 (and an estimate for 2020).As of 2020, house prices were somewhat above the median historical ratio - but far below the bubble peak. Going forward, I think it would be a positive if wages outpaced, or at least kept pace with house prices increases for a few years. Note: The national wage index for 2020 is estimated using the median increase over the last several years.
Percentage of young adults living with parents higher than during the Great Depression - The Pew Research Center last month published a study showing that a higher number of young adults are living with their parents than during the Great Depression of the 1930s. According to the study, which is based on data from the US Census Bureau, 52 percent of young people ages 18-29 lived with their parents in July this year, nearly six months after the onset of the pandemic in the US. This figure is significantly higher than at the end of the Great Depression in 1940, when the percentage was 48 percent. Due to a lack of statistics covering the 1930s, there is no way to know the exact percentage of young people living at home during the depths of the Great Depression. In July alone, the number of young adults living with their parents was 26.6 million, an increase of 2.6 million from February this year. Richard Fry, a researcher at Pew spoke on the findings to the Pittsburgh Gazette: “This would suggest some of the economic difficulties that young adults are experiencing [are] on the level and magnitude that we last saw in the 1930s.” There is no doubt that the pandemic has taken an immense toll on youth economically. As the pandemic began to rage throughout the US, and the country went into lockdown, millions of workers lost their jobs. Many had little or no savings. In fact, according to a report by Data for Progress, over half of people under the age of 45 reported that the $1,200 cash payment from the US federal government covered just a week or two of expenses, compared with a third of older adults. By the end of May of this year, more than 7.7 million workers younger than 30 were unemployed in the US. Over 3 million dropped out of the labor force over the course of a single month, from mid-April to mid-May. The number of young people unemployed at the height of the lockdown amounted to nearly one in three young workers, the highest rate since the country started tracking unemployment by age in 1948. Those who were able to keep their jobs were mostly low-paid essential workers.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.2% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 10 October U.S. hotel weekly occupancy hit 50% for just the second time since the low point of the pandemic, according to the latest data from STR through 10 October.
4-10 October 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 50.0% (-29.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$97.67 (-25.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.85 (-47.5%)
While a handful of the highest occupancy markets were those in areas affected by natural disasters (i.e. California wildfires), Saturday produced the week’s highest occupancy (65.2%) and ADR (US$110.84), indicating that the leisure and weekend staycation demand seen during the summer may make appearances into the fall. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).So far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall..
Retail Sales increased 1.9% in September - On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.9 percent from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.4 percent from September 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $549.3 billion, an increase of 1.9 percent from the previous month, and 5.4 percent above September 2019. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.9% in September.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.8% on a YoY basis. The increase in September was above expectations, and sales in July and August were revised up, combined.
U.S. Retail Spending Picked Up Strongly in September – WSJ - American shoppers boosted their spending on vehicles, clothing and many other goods in September, a bright spot amid signs the economic recovery remains fragile.Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. The gain marked the fifth straight month of retail-sales growth, as consumers prepared for further months of working and studying from home by spending on sporting goods, home improvement and furniture.“We continue to sell the consumer short,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, noting the surprising strength in the retail sales numbers. “It should be a pretty solid holiday season” for gift-giving, he added.Consumer spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, and overall expenditures remain below pre-pandemic levels because outlays on in-person services such as dentist’s visits, travel and sporting events haven’t fully rebounded.Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said September retail-sales were “very encouraging” but added, “the problem is, when we look out across the horizon, the outlook is much less rosy for consumers.” He pointed to struggling services providers and theimpasse between Congress and President Trump over another trillion-dollar-plus coronavirus relief package.Other recent economic data indicate the economy is losing steam. Monthly job gains have slowed in recent months. New applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs,rose last week to the highest level since late August. U.S. industrial production—a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities—fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, snapping four months of growth, the Federal Reserve said Friday.The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index ticked slightly higher in early October. Still, the survey found that slowing employment growth, a resurgence in coronavirus infections and the absence of additional federal relief payments prompted consumers to become more concerned about their current economic conditions.JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s tracker of credit- and debit-card transactions showed spending was down 5.7% compared with a year ago through the week ended Oct. 12.Still, economists say the high rate of personal saving—consumers socked away 14.1% of disposable income this August compared with 7.3% a year earlier—has given households fuel to spend, despite the cut to an extra $600 a week in jobless benefits at the end of July.“Inch by inch, consumers are feeling better even though we have this pandemic hanging over us,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, a group that represents retail stores. “The fact that there is less spending on services like travel, some of this money is available and going into retail cash registers,” he added.
BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in September, Core CPI increased 0.2% From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. ... The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly larger increase than the 1.3-percent rise for the 12-month period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. Overall inflation was at expectations in September. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Consumer Price Index: September Core at 1.71% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.37%, up from 1.31% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.71%, down from 1.74% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. The indexes for shelter, new vehicles, and recreation also increased in September. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and apparel were among those to decline over the month.The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly larger increase than the 1.3-percent rise for the 12-month period ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as the period ending August. The food index increased 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 7.7 percent. Read more Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.4% for Headline and 1.8% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
Cost of Living Adjustment increases 1.3% in 2021, Contribution Base increased to $142,800 -- With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2021. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 1.3 Percent Benefit Increase for 2021 Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 1.3 percent in 2021, the Social Security Administration announced today.The 1.3 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits payable to more than 64 million Social Security beneficiaries in January 2021. Increased payments to more than 8 million SSI beneficiaries will begin on December 31, 2020. (Note: some people receive both Social Security and SSI benefits). The Social Security Act ties the annual COLA to the increase in the Consumer Price Index as determined by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $142,800 from $137,700. Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (1.3% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.The contribution and benefit base will be $137,700 in 2021.The National Average Wage Index increased to $54,099.99 in 2019, up 3.75% from $52,145.80 in 2018 (used to calculate contribution base).
Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in September - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for September here. Used cars and trucks increased at a 118% annualized rate in September.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.4%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for August and increased 1.6% year-over-year. Used cars and trucks drove inflation in September. Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.
September U.S. producer prices rose 0.4%, more than expected - U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid a surge in the cost of hotel and motel accommodation, leading to the first year-on-year gain since March. The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday, which also showed a jump in prices for iron and steel scrap, suggested a slowdown in inflation flagged by data on Tuesday would likely be moderate. Consumer prices slowed in September as supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic eased. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 0.4% after falling 0.2% in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would gain 0.2% in September and rebound 0.2% on a year-on-year basis. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices increased 0.4% in September. The so-called core PPI had increased by 0.3% for three straight months. In the 12 months through September, the core PPI climbed 0.7%. The core PPI rose 0.3% on a year-on-year basis in August. U.S. stock index futures were trading slightly higher. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mostly higher. The government reported on Tuesday that consumer prices increased 0.2% in September, with a 6.7% jump in prices for used cars and trucks accounting for most of the gain. Business closures to slow the spread of the coronavirus caused bottlenecks in the supply chain, pushing up prices of some goods. Many businesses are now operational, but excess capacity in the labor market is limiting their ability to raise prices. Tame inflation should allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero for a while and continue pumping money into the economy, which slipped into recession in February. The U.S. central bank is now more focused on the labor market and has embraced flexible average inflation targeting, which in theory could see policymakers tolerate price increases above the Fed's 2% target for a period of perhaps several years to offset years in which inflation was lodged below that goal. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 1.6% in the 12 months through August. September's core PCE price index data is scheduled to be released at the end of this month. With new coronavirus infections surging across the United States and the economic recovery showing signs of stress, inflation could remain tepid. At least 25.5 million people are on unemployment benefits. In September, services rose 0.4% after increasing 0.5% in August. A 3.9% jump in hotel and motel accommodation was a major driver in the rise in prices of services last month. There were also increases in the costs of hardware, building materials and supplies, transportation and hospital inpatient care. Whole food prices rebounded 1.2% after three straight monthly declines. Wholesale gasoline prices fell 2.8%. Prices for goods accelerated 0.4% after edging up 0.1%. Goods prices were driven by a 14.7% surge in prices for iron and steel scrap. Excluding food and energy, goods prices increased 0.4% after climbing 0.3% in August. The dollar has dropped 2.8% against the currencies of the United States' main trade partners since July.
Class 8 Truck Orders Soar, Up 145% Year Over Year - Orders for heavy duty Class 8 trucks soared again in September, according to preliminary data released by ACT Research. Orders totaled 31,100 units, up 60% sequentially and up 145% from a year prior. Finalized data will be released during the middle of October. It is the order book's highest level since late 2018, according to TT News. It's also a positive looking trend that continues to make the case for a V-shaped economic recovery. Class 8 orders had seen significant pressure in the beginning of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst for ACT Research, commented: “Preliminary data show that September orders for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles posted positive readings for a fourth consecutive month, after 19 consecutive months of negative year-over-year comparisons. In aggregate, Classes 5-8 orders rose 49% from August and improved 88% compared to year-ago September.” He continued: “As orders rebounded to relatively healthy levels early in Q3, most of those orders were targeted at filling open 2020 build slots. With most of that work done by the end of August, we suspect the lion’s share of September’s orders were booked into 2021.” YOY order growth has been accelerating since April The medium duty market has also seen a 'rising tide' as a result, Vieth said: “There is a symbiotic relationship between heavy-duty freight rates and medium-duty demand, and clearly, the shift in consumer spending from experiences [services] to goods has been good for the providers of local trucking services.” “My hunch is this is probably the large national guys coming in and doing their annual deal,” said ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam. The 2020 recovery from coronavirus-induced lows near April “I think there is a bit more risk of that happening this time, happening more quickly. The reason is the whole labor dynamic. Their trucks are still out there [parked]. So we don’t need to add as many trucks as it might appear we are going to,” Tam noted said. Tam concluded that the outlook remained strong: “If our freight forecast is correct, they are going to experience some very solid levels of profitability for the remainder of this year and for next year as well.”
Industrial Production Decreased 0.6 Percent in September; 7.1% Below Pre-Crisis Level --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent in September and was 6.4 percent below February's level. The output of utilities dropped 5.6 percent, as demand for air conditioning fell by more than usual in September. Mining production increased 1.7 percent in September; even so, it was 14.8 percent below a year earlier. At 101.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 7.3 percent lower in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.5 percentage point in September to 71.5 percent, a rate that is 8.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020.Capacity utilization at 71.5% is 8.3% below the average from 1972 to 2017. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in September to 101.5. This is 7.1% below the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was well below consensus expectations, however industrial production in July and August were revised up.
U.S. Industrial Production Fell 0.6% in September – WSJ - U.S. industrial production fell in September, snapping four months of growth, in another sign of a slowing recovery.The Federal Reserve on Friday said its index of industrial production—a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities—fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September, following an unrevised 0.4% rise in August.Output remains 7.1% below where it was in February, before the pandemic hit, the Fed said.The decline in industrial production shows “a concern that the industrial recovery appears to be stalling with output well below its pre pandemic level,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. A recent increase in new coronavirus cases raises the possibility that factories could shut down once more, he said.Industrial production fell at a record pace in the spring as factories were closed to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The Fed’s index plunged in March and April, rebounded in June and July and has stalled since.Manufacturing, the biggest component of production, fell 0.3%, after rising 1.2% in August.Utility production fell 5.6% due to a decline in air conditioning use, the Fed said. Mining output rose 1.7%. Capacity utilization, a measure of slack in the industrial economy, fell to 71.5% in September from a revised 72% in August. Economists had expected capacity utilization to reach 71.8% in September.
Philly Fed Manufacturing "Picked Up"; NY Fed Manufacturing "Increased Modestly" in October -Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom - some improvement from May to October - but doesn't show the level of activity. From the Philly Fed: October 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region picked up this month, according to firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all showed notable improvement. Most future indexes increased and continue to reflect optimism among firms about growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for current activity increased 17 points to 32.3 in October, its fifth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May … On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment for the fourth consecutive month. The current employment index, however, fell 3 points to 12.7 this month. This was above the consensus forecast. From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to 10.5, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in September....The index for number of employees moved up five points to 7.2, indicating that employment levels grew. The average workweek index rose nine points to 16.1, a multi-year high, signaling a significant increase in hours worked. This was below the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (blue, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (yellow, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis). These early reports are mixed, and suggest the ISM manufacturing index might increase slightly in October from the September level.
AMC Entertainment May File For Bankruptcy For Real As Reopening Stalls - Exhibition shares took a beating Tuesday as AMC Entertainment announced its cash might be gone by year end and Walt Disney became the latest big content company to restructure operations around streaming. As theaters reopen to limited audiences without key New York and Los Angeles markets and a paucity of new studio fare, heavily indebted AMC said in an SEC filing that it has enough cash to last until late this year-early next and would require “material” additional capital to operate beyond that point. It’s not a given that capital will appear, or enough of it, reviving speculation on Wall Street that AMC may be forced to file for bankruptcy. “There is a significant risk that these potential sources of liquidity will not be realized or that they will be insufficient to generate the material amounts of additional liquidity that would be required until the Company is able to achieve more normalized levels of operating revenue,” AMC’s filing said. “I really don’t know how they don’t go bankrupt,” said one Wall Street analyst. “They should be out of cash by the end of January. And most companies don’t file when they are minus ten million in cash. The attorneys have to be paid.” At the close, AMC shares had plunged 13%. Cinemark, Marcus and National CineMedia fell, respectively, 8%, 7.2% and 9%. All had stabilized in after-hours trade. AMC is in tight corner, as it acknowledged. It has about $5 billion in debt and high debt means high interest expense. AMC, which is majority owned by Chinese conglomerate Wanda, racked it up pre-pandemic with a string of acquisitions, dividend payments and upgrades to its theaters. In contrast, Cinemark has said it has about 17 months of liquidity and less than half the debt of AMC. (One analyst attributed Cinemark’s stock dip in part the fact that it’s getting increasingly hard to short AMC stock. AMC noted in an SEC filing this morning that it had raised close to $40 million in a stock sale, which is good. But its cash burn is about $115 million a month and as of August 30 it had about $500 million in funds. The company said today it is considering asset sales, joint ventures, the sale of minority investments and new rounds of stock or bond sales. It recently sold off its Baltic theaters and, one source said, had been in talks to divest its Nordic cinemas.
Pilgrim’s Pride receive chicken feed fine from the DoJ - Clucking hell! Won’t you look at this: Pilgrim’s Pride Corporation today announced that it has entered into a plea agreement with the United States Department of Justice Antitrust Division in respect to its investigation into the sales of broiler chicken products in the United States. In the plea agreement, which is subject to the approval of the United States District Court of Colorado, Pilgrim’s and the Antitrust Division agreed to a fine of $110,524,140 for restraint of competition that affected three contracts for the sale of chicken products to one customer in the United States. The agreement does not recommend a monitor, any restitution or probationary period, and provides that the Antitrust Division will bring no further charges against Pilgrim’s in this matter, provided the company complies with the terms and provisions of the agreement. Pilgrim’s expects to record the fine as a miscellaneous expense in its financial statements in the third quarter of 2020.“Pilgrim’s is committed to fair and honest competition in compliance with U.S. antitrust laws,” said Fabio Sandri, Pilgrim’s CEO. “We are encouraged that today’s agreement concludes the Antitrust Division’s investigation into Pilgrim’s, providing certainty regarding this matter to our team members, suppliers, customers and shareholders.”You might remember we took a look at the rapidly developing chicken price-fixing scandal in the US last week, and how a simple chart of three big players’ operating margins during the alleged 7-year period told a tale in and of itself.Well it seems the chickens are not coming home to roost for $4bn Pilgrim’s Pride. Shareholders won’t be losing any feathers over the chicken feed fine: $110.5m is a quarter of this year’s estimated operating profits, and a poultry 2 per cent of the company’s cumulative ebit over the time the alleged chicken collusion was taking place.In corporate America, you could say it pays to fall fowl of the law after the fact.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 898,000 - Special technical note on California (two week pause). The DOL reported: In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 840,000 to 845,000. The 4-week moving average was 866,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250. This does not include the 372,891 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 463,897 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Jobless claims: only one week’s data, but cause for significant concern - Today marked the biggest increase in new jobless claims in two months, and one of the two biggest increases since May, while the slightly lagging continuing claims continued to decline. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 76,670 to 885,885. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims rose by 53,000 to 898,000. The 4 week moving average also increased by 8,000 to 866,250: Here is a close-up of the last four months highlighting the overall glacial progress in initial claims since the beginning of August: Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,188,202 to 9,631,790. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 1,165,000 to 10,018,000. On the bright side, both of these numbers are new pandemic lows: Continuing claims are now about 60% below their worst level from the beginning of May, but remain about 3 to 3.5 million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession. Only one week’s data, but it is a significant concern that claims have risen, after largely stalling for two months. The situation is at best only improving at a snail’s pace, and at worst is deteriorating again as we head into winter and a likely renewed increase in COVID cases.
Technical Note: October Employment Report Will Show a Significant Decrease in Temporary Census Workers -The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the September reference week, there were 246,801 decennial Census temporary workers. As of week of September 27 to October 3, there were 163,913 temp workers.That is a decrease of 82,888 - with two more weeks of layoffs to go. This week is the BLS reference week, and it seems likely another 70,000 or so temporary workers were let go this week and last week (to be released in two weeks).This means the October employment report will show a sharp decrease in temporary Census employment. In August, the employment report showed a gain of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, boosting the headline number.In September, the employment report showed a decrease of 41,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, reducing the headline number. My guess is the October employment report will show a decrease of around 150,000 temporary Census workers (maybe even more).
With Fewer Covid-19 Restrictions, South’s Economy Outperforms Nation – WSJ - When coronavirus cases began surging across the South this summer, the region seemed destined for the same economic setback the Northeast suffered during the spring. But by the end of summer, the South’s economy remained largely unscathed from the wave of infections. Its unemployment rate had fallen to 6.9%, the lowest of any region in August. The number of people employed was 6% lower in August than in February, before most of the country locked down, compared with declines of 10.6% in the Northeast, 8.2% in the West and 7% in the Midwest. Consumers continued to spend at relatively high rates. Many economists say the pace of economic recovery depends on the path of the virus. The South’s economic resilience shows the relationship is more complicated, at least in the short term. The South is diverse with 16 states, including Texas, Florida, Virginia and Oklahoma, and not all shared the same pattern. Nonetheless, as a whole it owes its stronger economic trajectory since the initial shutdown not to success in containing the virus but to its relatively aggressive reopening of business and a greater willingness by consumers to venture out despite risks. “In the South, I think that the more pro-business policies that Southern governors have largely followed for decades allowed much more flexibility earlier,” said Mark Vitner, a Charlotte, N.C.-based economist at Wells Fargo Securities. “We did see a rise in Covid infections over the summer. That slowed the pace of reopenings, but it didn’t reverse it.” Public-health experts say the South’s early reopening came at a price: higher rates of virus infections and deaths starting over the summer, illustrating a trade-off between the economy and health.
Outrage builds among autoworkers over 84-hour workweek for skilled trades workers at FCA Sterling Heights Assembly Plant - The news that Fiat Chrysler (FCA) management, with the support of the United Auto Workers (UAW), is implementing 12-hour days and seven-day workweeks for skilled trades workers at Sterling Heights Assembly Plant (SHAP) north of Detroit has touched a nerve among autoworkers across the US and Canada. Since it was published Friday night, the World Socialist Web Site’s original article on the move has been read tens of thousands of times. The 12-hour, seven-day work schedule, which was forced on skilled trades without a vote by the UAW, creates additional safety hazards on top of facilitating the further spread of the coronavirus in the plants. It negates the eight-hour day, one of the most cherished rights won in generations of struggle, which the UAW summarily abolished by imposing the Alternative Work Schedule (AWS). Skilled trades, as well as production workers, have already been working 10-hour shifts without payment of overtime after eight hours under the AWS. The SHAP Rank-and-File Safety Committee issued a statement yesterday demanding the immediate rescinding of the move and a return to the eight-hour day. The statement explained: “The eight-hour day is not only for our own health and safety and to allow us to recover physically. It is also necessary so that we can live like human beings. We all have lives outside of the plant, which we will not abandon. … We must take matters into our own hands again and organize ourselves.” The situation at SHAP is far from unique. A skilled trades worker at FCA’s Sterling Stamping plant, which is adjacent to SHAP, reports that skilled trades workers there are also being forced to work six days per week because of delays installing new machinery. “I also know that there are more cases of COVID-19 here than what they are telling people. I thought this was supposed to be reported.” Both the veil of silence by the company and the UAW, as well as the drive to reopen the economy by the Trump administration with the support of the Democratic Party, the worker said, are lulling some workers into a false sense of security over the spread of COVID-19. “They just had a guy out for coronavirus, but at his work area there is a community coffee pot, which workers drank from. I was like, ‘Are you out of your mind?’”
Goodbye Middle Class- Half Of All American Workers Made Less Than $34,248.45 Last Year - If you are making less than $3,000 a month, you have plenty of company, because about half of the country is in the exact same boat. The Social Security Administration just released new wage statistics for 2019, and they are pretty startling. To me, the most alarming thing in the entire report is the fact that the median yearly wage was just $34,248.45 last year. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $34,248.45 in 2019, and half of all American workers made more than $34,248.45. That isn’t a whole lot of money. In fact, when you divide $34,248.45 by 12 you get just $2,854.05. Needless to say, it is not easy to survive in America today on just $2,854.05 a month, and this may help to explain why we have been seeing so many people fall out of the middle class in recent years.And of course all of the figures that I am sharing with you in this article are just for 2019. This year, we have seen more than 63 million Americans file new claims for unemployment benefits as the U.S. economy has imploded during this pandemic, and so the final wage numbers for 2020 could be quite a bit worse than the numbers for 2019 were. Please keep that in mind as you go through the rest of this article.Once upon a time in America, a single income could easily support a middle class household in most cases, but those days are long gone.The cost of living has been rising far faster than our paychecks have, and as a result many Americans have been working themselves to the bone just to survive financially from month to month.To give you an idea of just how bad things have gotten, I would like to share with you some key numbers from the report that the Social Security Administration just released…
- 32.26 percent of American workers made less than $20,000 last year.
- 44.79 percent of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
- 56.46 percent of American workers made less than $40,000 last year.
- 65.91 percent of American workers made less than $50,000 last year.
Today, the poverty level for a household of five in the United States is $30,680.That means that close to half of all workers in this country do not even make enough to get a family of five above the poverty level.
NY wedding with 10,000 attendees shut down amid COVID-19 - New York officials this week shut down a wedding expected to draw 10,000 guests amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) confirmed on Saturday. Cuomo said during a press briefing that officials investigated the planned event that would violate restrictions on large gatherings in New York during the pandemic. The governor said State Health Commissioner Howard Zucker signed an order “saying you can’t have a wedding in these locations that is over the gathering guidance.” The event was scheduled to take place on Monday in the Williamsburg neighborhood of New York City. However, it was outside the targeted red, orange or yellow zones tracking clusters of COVID-19 cases. Beth Garvey, special counsel and senior adviser to the governor, told reporters during the Saturday briefing that “the information that our investigation revealed was that upwards of 10,000 individuals were planned to attend.” Garvey said the order was served alongside the New York City Sheriff’s Office on Friday night. Garvey said officials have not received any response to the order, although individuals served with the health notices can request a hearing. “The city is aware if it,” Cuomo added. “I’m sure that they’re going to have people monitoring.” “Look, you can get married. You just can’t have 1,000 people at your wedding,” he added. “You get the same result at the end of the day. You’re married. It’s also cheaper.”
Live music industry in the US faces “massive collapse” due to pandemic -The indifference of the political establishment in the US—and everywhere else, for that matter—to popular economic hardship is hard to overestimate.In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, millionaire politicians—representatives of the banks and large corporations—from both major parties demonstrate on a daily basis how impervious they are to the loss of jobs and income experienced by great numbers of people, along with the threat of evictions and foreclosures and the growth of hunger and homelessness. The overall devastation has implications that go beyond even the immediately economic situation, as desperate as that is. The coronavirus crisis is presently threatening to wipe out a considerable portion of cultural life in the US. We have reported in the WSWS on the circumstances facing musicians,popular and classical, along with visual artists and others. The news continues to be dire. The situation has no precedent, in wartime or any other period.In regard to live concerts, for example, the life blood of the popular music world, an article on the website Live for Live Music notes that when the pandemic erupted in early March, “we started compiling a list of all the scheduled shows, tours, and festivals affected by the outbreak.” As the situation worsened, the article continues, “it became clear that documenting every canceled/postponed show was a fool’s errand. We quickly pivoted to building a list of concerts that were still not canceled. That list, too, rapidly proved to be pointless. To borrow a concept from the sports world, there’s no need for a box score if the whole game is rained out.” In August, NPR reported that the “independent live music industry sits … on the brink of catastrophe.” Thousands of concert halls and clubs remained closed. As the pandemic dragged on, it was creating “an existential crisis for these venues and the critical role they play in music scenes and communities across the US. The Barracuda in Austin, The Satellite in Los Angeles and Portland’s Port City Music Hall are just a few of the venues that have closed for good in recent weeks, with many more at risk of going under.”
2 Artists Dominating American Music Charts Both Died Before Their Albums Dropped - NYC rapper Pop Smoke's debut album, "Shoot for the Stars, Aim for the Moon", has dominated the Billboard charts since its July debut. This past month, it sold the second-most albums of any artist. Oddly, the artist who came in first was another rapper, Juice WRLD, whose album "Legends Never Die" is the No. 1 album in the country.As Bloomberg reported Wednesday, the two artists are topping its ranking of the most influential figures in music for 2020. It's an appropriately morbid trend for 2020, a year that has been marked by images of the sick and suffering, even more so than - well - many of the years that preceded it since the beginning of the 21st century. But it also highlights an alarming trend in rap music, a genre that has taken over the popular music industry as the best-selling (and most profitable) form of musical entertainment, second only to massive arena tours featuring aging rockers like the Police and Guns N' Roses - or pop stars like Taylor Swift. Many top-selling rap artists have been implicated or convicted of violent crimes, including murder, manslaughter, attempted murder and armed robbery.It's a trend that has dovetailed with the surge of gun violence in America's cities, including Chicago, NYC, LA and even smaller cities like Baltimore and Detroit.During the gang wars that rocked the south side of Chicago earlier this year, another up-and-coming rapper was shot and killed. Pop Smoke was shot and killed during a home invasion back in February. Five suspects have been arrested and are awaiting trial on murder charges.The circumstances behind Juice WRLD's death were decidedly less violent; he overdosed on drugs he reportedly swallowed for fear they would be discovered by police. He's far from the only rapper in recent years to die from drug overdoses; two other chart-topping rap artists, Mac Miller and Lil Peep, have also died of overdoses over the past few years.Then again, violence has been part of rap virtually since its birth in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Tupac and Biggie, among the biggest rappers of the 90s, were famously killed in unsolved drive-by shootings. And 50 Cent, the executive producer of Pop Smoke's album, was shot 9 times, but survived. The man suspected of organizing the attack was later shot and killed, though no charges have been filed.
New York Philharmonic cancels entire season due to pandemic The New York Philharmonic canceled its entire 2020-21 season on Tuesday for the first time in its 178-year history due to the coronavirus pandemic. The symphony orchestra officially canceled its performances from Jan. 6 to June 13. The New York Philharmonic has been shut down since March and previously canceled all shows through Jan. 5. The decision was made “in compliance with New York State health regulations and on the advice of health officials,” according to a press release. New York state’s limited fourth phase of reopening prohibits and labels live indoor performances as “high risk arts and entertainment activities.” New York Philharmonic President and CEO Deborah Borda called the change of plans “devastating” but said the 2020-21 season will not be “a silent season.” “The cancellation of an entire New York Philharmonic season is not only unprecedented — it is devastating, both in its impact on the morale of musicians and audiences, and in its profound economic consequences,” she said. “We know there was no other choice, but we also know that music is most meaningful when shared with listeners in a common space.”
"Player Protests/Politics" Cited As Driving NBA Finals Ratings Collapse - Ratings for the NBA Finals continue to see a historic collapse. Game 3 of the finals averaged just a 3.1 rating and 5.94 million viewers, making it "the least watched and lowest rated NBA Finals game on record," according to Yahoo Sports. It is the latest chapter in an NBA Finals that has continued to set the bar lower and lower for itself in terms of ratings: In a poll on Yahoo Sports with 22,266 responses, people were asked why they thought the NBA's ratings had dropped off. Player protests/politics was the overwhelming favorite, at 61%, as to why people are turning away from the NBA. Although we may not see those in the industry brave enough to admit that the politics are causing a problem just yet: Recall, just days ago we noted that Game 2 also saw a ratings collapse of 68% to all time lows. It appears that viewers are no longer interested in the political and social justice messages of the NBA but rather were tuning in for (believe it or not) actual basketball. As the balance of the league has tipped from less sport to more activism, viewers are tuning out. Game 2 of the NBA Finals saw a major collapse in viewers, with just 4.5 million people tuning in. This is down 68% from last year's game two, we noted. In fact, the ratings made Game 2 the least watched NBA Finals game on record, dropping below the 7.41 Game 1, which was the lowest viewed finals opener in history. There really doesn't seem to be much of a spin that the NBA can put on the terrible ratings, other than the league has simply lost the interest of many who would have once tuned in. In fact, one of the league's most "outspoken" voices on oppression and racism, LeBron James, should have been the feature draw for this year's finals. Instead, it appears he could be exactly what is turning viewers away. We have also been documenting the recent ratings collapse that the NFL has suffered in the midst of turning its league into a political movement over the last few months. In early October the NFL reached out to players, telling them "not to worry" about the decline in ratings. Also in denial, they blamed the Presidential race for the drop in ratings, telling players: “The 2020 presidential election and other national news events are driving substantial consumption of cable news, taking meaningful share of audience from all other programming. Historically, NFL viewership has declined in each of the past six presidential elections.”
30 weeks into the COVID-19 pandemic and workers desperately need stimulus – EPI - Another 1.3 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits last week. That includes 898,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 373,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). PUA is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits, but it is set to expire at the end of this year. The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was roughly unchanged (a decline of 38,000) from the prior week’s figures. Last week was the 30th straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession, and if that comparison is restricted to regular state claims—since we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession—initial claims last week were greater than the second-worst week of the Great Recession. However, trends over time in initial claims should be interpreted with caution right now because California initial claims data are being imputed because they have temporarily paused processing initial claims to address problems in their system.Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire at the end of July, so last week was the 11th week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not get the extra $600. Hope for another stimulus bill before February is waning. The House passed a $2.2 trillion relief package earlier this month, but Senate Republicans balked at the $1.8 trillion relief package Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offered to Nancy Pelosi. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced on Tuesday that the Senate will take up a very small relief bill next week, but it seems clear that getting something done with less than 20 days until the election will be exceedingly difficult. It is looking more and more like stimulus talks will fail, which means the extra $600 is not coming back anytime soon, and the economy will also not be getting other crucial stimulus measures it needs to bounce back, including aid to state and local governments.Most states provide 26 weeks (six months) of regular benefits, and October is the eighth month of this crisis. That means many workers are exhausting their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 1.2 million, from 11.2 million to 10.0 million.
COVID-19 coverage safety net has plenty of holes in US -- COVID-19 can do more than torment patients physically. It also clobbers some financially.Even though many insurers and the U.S. government have offered to pick up or waive costs tied to the virus, holes remain for big bills to slip through and surprise patients.People who weren’t able to get a test showing they had the virus and those who receive care outside their insurance network are particularly vulnerable. Who provides the coverage and how hard a patient fights to lower a bill also can matter. There are no good estimates for how many patients have been hit with big bills because of the coronavirus. But the pandemic that arrived earlier this year exposed well-known gaps in a system that mixes private insurers, government programs and different levels of coverage. More than 7 million people have had confirmed cases of COVID-19 since the virus started spreading earlier this year in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University. The vast majority of those patients will incur few medical costs as they wait for their body to fight off mild symptoms. But patients who visit emergency rooms or wind up hospitalized may be vulnerable financially. Melissa Szymanski spent five hours in a Hartford, Connecticut, emergency room in late March and wound up with bills totaling about $3,200. The problem: The 30-year-old elementary school teacher couldn’t get a test even though she was fighting a fever and her doctor wanted a chest X-ray. At the time, the hospital was limiting tests, and she didn’t qualify. Szymanski was never diagnosed with COVID-19 at the hospital and her insurer, Anthem BlueCross BlueShield, said she would have to pay the high deductible on her plan before coverage started. Separately, the federal government has said it will reimburse hospitals that treat uninsured patients for COVID-19. And 78 insurers have waived expenses like deductibles or copayments for individuals covered by their plans, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Many large employers that pay their own health care costs have done the same thing. But these waivers are not universal, and they have limits. Some will expire later this year.
Utility shutoff notices begin going out to Granite Staters— Several thousand utility customers around the state will soon receive shutoff notices in their mailboxes after the lifting of a moratorium on shutoffs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Utility officials said the shutoff notices are being sent out now. "The residential customer disconnection notices began going out this week," said Alec O'Meara, of Unitil. "I believe 1,000 letters were sent out this week." >> Get help: Apply for fuel, energy assistance programs The next few weeks could be critical for families who have fallen behind on utility payments. Some were previously given leniency because of rules related to the coronavirus crisis. "For the next few weeks, the moratorium has been lifted and there are people who could be faced with a disconnect, and that's why it's important to get ahold of community action agencies in the state," said Ryan Clouthier, of Southern New Hampshire Services. For many families, this type of financial stress is new. There are options, but people have to make the call. Eversource and Unitil have expanded payment options, and officials said they want to help. "We are offering flexible payment options that our customers can call to spread out the remainder of their balance over 12 months, no money down, no fees and no interest," said Kaitlyn Woods, of Eversource. "If your income situation has changed, there are income-eligibility programs that may be available to you," O'Meara said. "There are payment plans available to you. There are a variety of fees that can be waived." Community action partnerships work with utility companies to help families make payments, and they expect many more applications this year. In the wake of the pandemic, community action partnerships statewide adjusted their income guidelines because many more New Hampshire families would likely need help. "To give you an idea, for a family of four, that would be roughly $69,686," Clouthier said. The assistance money does not have to be repaid. It is first come, first served, so residents are advised to file their applications soon.
ANTIFA Is Compiling Lists Of "Fascist" Businesses For Yelp's New "Racist Behavior Alerts" - It was less than 48 hours ago that we pointed out that "review" website Yelp was getting into the business of social justice by saying it would append a "Business Accused of Racist Behavior Alert" to any businesses page where a company had been accused of racism. "The bullshit never ends," said Donald Trump Jr., in response to the idea. "What are the odds this isn't insanely abused?" he followed up asking on Friday: Well, Don, we think we have an answer for you: the odds look pretty long. That's because just 2 days after Yelp's announcement, ANTIFA has already starting compiling the names of businesses that it wants to submit to Yelp and put out of business. As if throwing rocks through their windows and stealing from them wasn't enough. The list is being prepared by the same ANTIFA group is that "responsible for organizing the violent Portland riots," according to the Post Millennial. In fact, Tweets from the group compiling the data suggests that ANTIFA members submit "non-friendly" businesses, "AKA any company that's hanging blue lives garbage in their store or anything else that's anti the BLM movement". So, in essence, Black Lives Matter is now being granted the power to shut down whatever businesses it doesn't like. And remember, this is supposed to be the anti-fascist group.
Jewish reporter says he was beaten up and called a Nazi by Orthodox Jews in New York City amid tensions over new coronavirus lockdowns - A Jewish reporter said he was attacked in Brooklyn as tensions mount among New York's Orthodox Jews over the best response to the coronavirus, which has hit the community hard since March. Jacob Kornbluh, the national politics reporter for the Jewish Insider, covered the second night of protests on Wednesday in the neighborhood, opposed to a new local coronavirus restriction imposed by Governor Andrew Cuomo. Kornbluh, also a religious Jew, has been prominent in warning the close-knit community about the public health dangers of COVID-19. Kornbluh said a mob, incited by rabble-rousers, spotted and surrounded him. He said on Twitter that he was "hit in the head, and kicked at by an angry crowd of hundreds of community members" at a protest in Borough Park, a southwestern region in Brooklyn, New York. Heshy Tischler, a pro-Trump Orthodox Jew and a Brooklyn City Council candidate leading the protests, was accused of whipping up the crowd against Kornbluh, calling him a "rat." On the same night, a group also chased down and assaulted a Jewish freelance photographer and a third man, the New York Post reported. Local leaders told the New York Times the spike in infections is partly due to their beliefs that they had achieved herd immunity and in various coronavirus misinformation spread by President Donald Trump. The president has overwhelming support in the Orthodox community, which traditionally backs conservative Republican candidates. At a Tuesday night gathering in Borough Park, protesters lit a fire, and threw cardboard boxes and face masks into the flames, according to NBC New York. Despite calls for peace from the community leaders, Orthodox Jews who have warned of the dangers have been increasingly targeted in person and on social media with the Yiddish insult of "moiser" —meaning informant to the enemies of the Jews, and in the traditional belief system, punishable by death.
Trump supporter killed by Pinkerton agent during dueling Denver, Colorado protests - A Pinkerton Security agent, 30-year-old Matthew Dolloff, is currently in jail on suspicion of homicide after shooting and killing a far-right Trump supporter, identified as 49-year-old Lee Keltner, during a pro-police “Patriot Rally” in Denver, Colorado, on Saturday. The event, held at the Civic Center Park in downtown Denver, was organized by Donald Trump supporter and longtime Blackwater mercenary John “Tig” Tiegen. At the same time as the far-right rally, a separate rally organized by various local groups dubbed the “Black Lives Matter-Antifa Soup Drive” was held nearby. Dolloff was working as private security for Denver television station 9News, which reported that they had contracted private security for their reporters when covering protests. Throughout his time in office, President Donald Trump has targeted journalists, whipping up his fascistic base at rallies by labeling the media and reporters as “fake news” and “enemies of the people.” Keltner was armed with bear mace, and police have stated they recovered two handguns at the scene, one belonging to Dolloff. Prior to the shooting, freelance photographer Ben Kile on Twitterprovided video evidence of Keltner threatening him earlier in the day for filming, tweeting, “the man shot and killed today in Denver ... tried to smash/steal my camera earlier in the evening for filming them.” In a video recorded right before and as the shooting occurred, Keltner can be seen holding a can of bear mace in his hand as he and several others got into a verbal altercation with a single man wearing a “Black Guns Matter” shirt. Police have confirmed that they have recordings of the full incident as well but have yet to release them. Photos taken at the time of the shooting show Keltner striking Doloff in the face, knocking off his hat and sunglasses and then spraying him with the mace. Doloff responded by shooting him once in the chest. Keltner died within an hour of being shot. Doloff was employed by Pinkerton Security, one of the most notorious security agencies in US history, with over 160 years’ experience in suppressing, assaulting and beating workers on behalf of capital. Within minutes of the shooting, far-right media outlets and personalities, including Andy Ngo, Tim Pool and Dinesh D’Souza, tried to paint the killing as the latest example of “BLM/Antifa” violence. This prompted Joe Montoya, division chief of investigations for the Denver Police Department, to unequivocally state during a Saturday press conference that the “private security guard [had] no affiliation with Antifa.”
Alleged Kenosha shooter Kyle Rittenhouse won't face charges in home state of Illinois Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenager accused of shooting two protesters in Kenosha, Wis., this summer, will not face any charges in his home state of Illinois, The Associated Press reported Tuesday. Prosecutors in Illinois said an investigation found that the AR-15-style rifle used in the Kenosha shooting was purchased, stored and used in Wisconsin, according to the AP. There was no evidence that the gun was ever in Rittenhouse's physical possession in Illinois, the Lake County State’s Attorney’s Office said. Rittenhouse is being held in a juvenile detention center in Lake County, Ill., without bond. He is due back in court on Oct. 30 for an extradition hearing, where he is challenging his extradition from Illinois to Wisconsin. Rittenhouse, 17, is charged with first-degree intentional homicide in the killing of two protesters during demonstrations in Kenosha over the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man who was shot during an arrest in the city. Rittenhouse is also charged with intentional homicide in the wounding of a third protester. He faces a misdemeanor charge of underage firearm possession for wielding a semi-automatic rifle. The alleged gunman has attracted support from several high-profile groups and commentators on the right who have said he acted in self-defense.
More Than A Dozen Police Officers In California Accused Of Trafficking And Raping Underage Girl In Complaint - A young girl was just 12-years-old when she was forced into the sex trade by pimps, then she went to the police for help but instead of aiding her, they proceeded to do the exact same thing to her later on in her life. That’s not the shocking part according to the legal complaint more than 30 officers were involved and many were never punished. Here’s a refresher on the case which is several years old. In 2016, Celeste Guap claimed to have had sex with officers of the law and that some of these three officers were when she was underage – just 16 years old. The irony of all this, she was the daughter of an Oakland police dispatcher. Guap alleged that she had had sex with dozens of police officers from seven departments, including Richmond, Oakland, Livermore, Contra Costa County and Alameda County.She said some of her sexual encounters with officers happened while she was underage. Several officers were terminated as a result of an investigation, and several were charged criminally. However, some kept their jobs as is the case with six Richmond PD officiers as the Dailymail reports.In exchange for the sex some officers gave her protection and tipped her off about undercover prostitution sting operations in text messages. “A lot knew I was underage because they nicknamed me ‘juve,’ which is short for juvenile,” Guap said at the time.A sex scandal that started just involving the Oakland police department, has spread across east bay California to several police departments, including the Richmond Police Department, San Francisco Police Department, and Stockton Police Department.More than two dozen officers are implicated in the investigation that w as started after Officer Brendan O’Brien committed suicide and left a suicide note that stated several officers lied in the first internal investigation about their relationships with prostitute Celeste Guap. O’Brien was one of two other officers accused of having sex with Guap when she was underage at 16. O`Brien is also suspected of murdering his wife — investigators called her death suspicious.
Broward jail leaders fired after another mentally ill inmate gives birth in her cell, BSO says The Broward County Sheriff’s office fired two top administrators after a woman who went into labor in her jail cell was not given medical care despite screams of pain.The woman, who suffers from mental illness, was ultimately forced to give birth to her son in the jail cell, according to a letter sent to Broward Sheriff Gregory Tony Wednesday by the Broward Public Defender’s Office.“She was denied the dignity of a hospital bed and the assistance of a physician,” according to the letter, signed by Executive Chief Assistant Public Defender Gordon H. Weekes Jr. “The repeated and callous indifference to the medical needs of a laboring, mentally ill mother is of grave concern.” The sheriff’s office fired Colonel Gary Palmer and Lieutenant Angela Neely Thursday after an administrative review of the circumstances surrounding the birth.The woman’s delivery in late September came less than three months after the Tammy Jackson Healthy Pregnancies for Incarcerated Women Act took effect.Last year, jail inmate Tammy Jackson, who is mentally ill, was forced to deliver her child in an isolation cell. At the time, Broward County’s Public Defender Howard Finkelstein said she delivered the baby alone, while a BSO spokeswoman said a medical team attended to the mother and child.“It is unconscionable that any woman, particularly a mentally ill woman, would be abandoned in her cell to deliver her own baby,” the public defender wrote at the time.Weekes said the fact that two women were denied medical care and forced to give birth in their jail cells in the past two years suggests a “systematic lack of concern” on the part of the Sheriff’s office.“With all the things that can go wrong, to not give medical care is mind boggling,” Weekes said.The Broward Sheriff’s Office said that it is continuing to investigate the incident.
Bill Would Clamp Down on Cops Collecting DNA From Kids - Yves Smith - A bill that would curb the secretive collecting of kids’ DNA by cops is set to hit the City Council Thursday. The measure aims to “prohibit any member of the NYPD from collecting a DNA sample from a minor prior to the lawful arrest of such minor without the consent of the minor’s parent, legal guardian or attorney,” according to a summary obtained by THE CITY. Councilmember Donovan Richards (D-Queens), a co-sponsor of the bill, called the unhindered practice of gathering such material from young suspects “genetic stop-and-frisk.”“I see this as a major step in opening up the conversation of how do we reimagine policing in our city,” Donovan told THE CITY. As THE CITY has reported, young people detained at police precincts often face long hours in custody and interrogation.New York City police officers are allowed to collect kids’ DNA both overtly and through surreptitious methods, like from a used straw or a bag of chips — items often offered by cops to young detainees.And although police are required to notify parents when a child is in custody, lawyers and other advocates say that’s not always the case. One example: the Halloween night detention of teen trick-or-treaters in Carroll Gardens last year.The new legislation, co-sponsored by Councilmember Diana Ayala (D-Manhattan, The Bronx), would still allow for the collection of DNA from crime scenes and victims of crimes.“This is about young men like me who are growing up in a neighborhood who are criminalized for their entire life because of these systems that are put in place that are not only discriminatory and biased,” said Richards, “but also depicts … young Black and brown minors as criminals.” A demographic breakdown of the city DNA database has yet to be released, but over 90% of minors arrested in New York City between October 2018 and October 2019 were Black or Latino, according to a recent report.Lisa Freeman of The Legal Aid Society, the city’s largest public defender organization, called the legislation a strong step forward.“For far too long, the NYPD has engaged in secretive methods to take DNA from children without even securing consent from their parent,” she said. The move by city lawmakers comes just months after a contentious February hearing at City Hall, spurred by reports that children as young as 12 had been added to the database without consent. At the time, NYPD Chief of Detectives Rodney Harrison staunchly defended the practice, saying that “the use of DNA to solve and prosecute crimes is one vital way we advance justice.”
'Log off! Log off!' teacher orders students when sexual assault livestreamed during first grader's remote learning class — An 18-year-old man out on bond for a gun case was held without bail after he livestreamed himself during a sexual act with a 7-year-old first grader on break from her Chicago Public Schools remote learning class on Thursday prosecutors said. Catrell A. Walls, of the West Chesterfield neighborhood on the South Side, was arrested Thursday afternoon shortly after 3:30 p.m., after he was seen molesting the girl, police said. Walls, charged with predatory criminal sexual assault of a victim under 13 years old, appeared for a bond hearing Saturday afternoon before Judge Charles Beach. Police were made aware of the attack when the girl’s teacher saw it on a computer screen during a Google classroom e-learning session. In addition to Thursday afternoon’s incident, which alarmed multiple students who viewed it and were heard asking, “What’s going on, what’s happening?” the victim told authorities Walls has a history of sexually assaulting her, for the last year, Turano said. “The victim disclosed ‘he made me put my lips on (him) and this has happened before, and I don’t want my daddy to know, it’s a secret,”‘ Turano said, quoting the victim. This was broadcast in the daytime on a website accessible to many young students, while the girl was on a break from the class during a time when her teacher asked the students to turn off their cameras and mute themselves. The 7-year-old muted herself but did not turn off the camera. When the teacher saw them performing oral sex, she repeatedly ordered all the students to log off and then called out the victim’s name and told her to turn off the camera. “She saw the defendant close the computer,” Turano said. The teacher called the police, the school principal and the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services. Officers went to the victim’s location, and Walls was arrested after she identified him.
Columbus City Schools pushes back start of in-person classes - Columbus City Schools has pushed back the start of in-person classes, originally scheduled to resume Oct. 19. Now students in grades K-8 and preschool will begin the transition with two weeks of optional orientation sessions starting that day, meaning students won't actually be required to step into buildings until Nov. 2 at the earliest, according to a Monday announcement. Nov. 2 is the new in-person start date for students in grades K-5, while those in grades 6-8 will resume on Nov. 9. All students who receive special education services who have complex needs will begin on Nov. 2. Students participating in career-technical programs at Columbus Downtown High School and Fort Hayes Career Center will return on Oct. 26. All other high school students will continue to learn remotely from home until further notice. "It's like starting school again for the first time," Columbus Board of Education President Jennifer Adair told The Dispatch. "We want everyone to get used to the new health and safety protocols." In a Zoom call with reporters Monday afternoon, Superintendent Talisa Dixon said the reason for the delay was twofold: to ensure that students and families are prepared for the new learning format, which will have them returning to buildings twice weekly, and ongoing negotiations with the district's labor unions. Earlier that day, Adair said the new orientation plan was created "in collaboration" with the district's teachers union, which had expressed concerns about the previous plan that called for students to return Oct. 19, which it hadn't formally agreed to during negotiations. But John Coneglio, president of the Columbus Education Association, said the union hadn't agreed to the plan announced Monday either. "We are not on the same page at all on any of this," Coneglio told The Dispatch. "Right now we have some serious concerns and trust issues, and different interpretations of agreements that were made. That communication was not approved by the union." The district's "unilateral decisions" are causing confusion among families, Coneglio said. In addition to the teachers union, a group of parents has also expressed concerns about a faster return to classes, citing safety concerns and a lack of communication. They delivered a copy of an online petition with 1,200 signatures to the district's offices on Monday morning.
COVID-19 outbreaks erupt in Florida public schools as state demands further reopenings - Public schools in Florida are experiencing a dangerous growth of COVID-19 infections as the state government aggressively pursues in-class instruction in locations ravaged by the pandemic. The Florida Department of Health reported 5,570 new COVID-19 cases Sunday, which brought the total number of cases to a staggering 734,491, with over 15,300 deaths. Another 48 people died in the state Monday, the highest figure in the US. As a consequence of the reckless and homicidal back-to-school drive demanded by state and county officials, some of the hardest-hit areas have begun to report outbreaks instantly after reopening. In Miami-Dade County, multiple coronavirus cases have been confirmed since students began returning to classrooms last week. The infections follow an order from county officials that 40,000 students return to schools for the final phases of the district’s reopening plan. Despite widespread opposition to the reopening of schools among educators and school staff, Florida’s Republican Govenor Ron DeSantis is pushing ahead with the resumption of in-person learning. The Florida Education Associaiton (FEA), the largest teachers union in the state, has done nothing to mobilize educators and halt the premature reopening of schools. Instead, the union has resorted to using fruitless television ads to “pressure” DeSantis to release COVID-19 data related to schools. In August, the FEA fraudulently touted as a “victory” a Leon County court ruling that granted local school boards and districts the ability to override state-mandated reopening requirements and decide locally whether to delay or resume in-person instruction. This minor concession has been short-lived, however, after a three-judge panel of the 1st District Court of Appeals sided with the state last Friday, overturned the ruling of Leon County Judge Charles Dodson that the reopening mandates of Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran violated the Florida Constitution. Demonstrating the bankruptcy of the FEA’s strategy of relying on the court system to gurantee the health and safety of students and educators, the appeals court said the union-led case lacked legal standing and was asking courts to decide “non-justiciable political questions.” The panel further said the union’s arguments failed to demonstrate that Corcoran’s order was “arbitrary and capricious.” The outcome of the court case has further emboldened the DeSantis administration to order the reopening of schools all across the state and pave the way for a massive resurgence of COVID-19. Confirmed COVID-19 cases have already been linked to four Miami-Dade County schools, with three students and one employee testing positive on Friday.
State and federal governments conceal COVID-19 outbreaks in US schools - Across the United States, the locations of COVID-19 outbreaks in schools are being deliberately hidden from the public, in order to prevent teachers and parents from drawing the conclusion that face-to-face instruction should stop. At the federal level, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Education have no programs in place whatsoever to track coronavirus cases in schools or colleges. The list of states not reporting outbreaks in schools includes California, Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Alabama, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware. The rest of the states are split between having either limited data or district-level data, which often does not disclose the specific schools where an outbreak occurs. Significantly, the locations of reported cases are known by state governments, and it is well within the capabilities of the state and federal government to report case locations. They are deliberately concealing this information as part of the broader back-to-work campaign to force parents to work in unsafe conditions, all to produce profits for the financial oligarchy. The COVID Monitor website, which independently tracks coronavirus cases in school, has reported 42,778 cases in K-12 schools as of this writing, with most cases occurring after schools reopened en masse in late July. This figure is certainly an under-count, but nevertheless illustrates the criminality of school reopenings. It is worth examining some of the specific efforts by the state governments to cover up the locations of outbreaks in schools. In Illinois, the state government knows of at least 44 outbreaks at school buildings around the state and has deliberately withheld the location of these outbreaks from the public. The state’s Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker has endorsed school reopenings, stating, “I’m very much in favor of trying to get our kids back into in-person learning.” Classes started in-person during mid-August for most schools in the state, with an uptick in cases corresponding with this development. As of October 2, at least 8,668 children ages 5-17 have tested positive for the virus across Illinois, with five children dying in the same age range. More than 1,800 public schools are open for in-person instruction, with roughly a quarter of students and staff attending only in-person and almost three-quarters attending at least partially in-person.
Teacher death toll mounts as districts across the US push forward with school reopenings - As more school districts across the US continue to reopen for in-person instruction, without fail they assert to their communities that safety is of the utmost concern. Just two months since schools began reopening in late July, the costs to human health and life expose these assertions as lies. There have been at least 47,376 cases reported in K-12 schools so far this year, and at least 37 educators have died since August 1, all of which were entirely preventable. These figures, as damning as they are, are surely an undercount, as state and federal governments are actively working toconceal the spread of the virus .In the past two weeks alone, eight teachers have died from COVID-19. Reports of deaths will continue to pour in over the coming weeks and months, and in all likelihood begin to include children, unless an independent intervention of educators, parents and students across the country is organized to stop the deadly reopening in its tracks. TheEducators Rank-and-File Safety Committee is fighting to build this movement through a network of local committees controlled by educators, parents and students, which have been formed in New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Pennsylvania.The most recently reported teacher death came on October 9, when Choua Yang, 53, died after battling COVID-19 for over a month. She was the principal since 2008 and CEO since 2020 of Prairie Seeds Academy Charter School in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota. The school has been closed for in-person instruction since March, and though students have remained off campus, some staff have been working in the building. In Oklahoma City, 50-year-old Laurie Cochran, a 4th grade teacher at Kaiser Elementary School, died on October 5 after being infected for roughly ten days, according to her family. Kaiser Elementary had already lost a teacher to the virus this school year, Sherry White, on September 1. Greg Worley, Assistant Principal at Kaiser Elementary, said that the two teachers were treasured by students and coworkers, and that they were the “epitome of what you want in a teacher,” quoted KOCO News. In Stanly County, North Carolina, 3rd grade teacher Julie Davis, 49, died on October 4, two months after in-person classes resumed in the district. Davis became an educator 18 years ago, after a career as an accountant, after the Columbine school shooting inspired her to become a teacher in the hopes that she could “change a child’s life, and maybe that wouldn’t happen again. And years later, she touched everybody,” her daughter told ABC News .
350,000 US education jobs slashed in September - K-12 schools and colleges across the United States have issued yet another round of mass layoffs stemming from the economic fallout of the pandemic, with at least 350,000 education jobs slashed in September alone. According to the latest jobs report from the Department of Labor, employment in local government education fell by 231,000 and state government education by 49,000, while employment in private education decreased by 69,000. The September layoffs come four months after an unprecedented 1.4 million layoffs to education workers throughout the country as a result of the pandemic. As was the case in April and May, the layoffs have affected in most part classified employees such as bus drivers, food service workers, campus assistants, paraeducators and other school employees. These school staff have been added to the growing mass of tens of millions facing evictions, hunger and destitution. These mass layoffs take place as deadly school reopenings are pushed by federal and state governments across the US, in order to get students back into the classrooms to force their parents back into workplaces. Over 30 school employees and students have already died since schools began to reopen en masse in late July, while at least 42,778 students and educators have been infected and the health and lives of millions of people have been placed at risk. School districts across the nation are facing financial disaster and ruin. Researchers at the Learning Policy Institute have estimated the pandemic’s financial costs to public schools to be between $199 billion and $246 billion, which includes both the increased costs of dealing with COVID-19 and the loss of state revenue. Furthermore, there have been record declines in enrollment throughout the country. Though there is not yet comprehensive national data on enrollment declines, a recent report from NPR shows there have been major reductions in dozens of school districts across at least 20 states. Of note, Los Angeles Unified School District in California, the second largest district in the country, has reported a drop in enrollment by 11,000 in students, while Miami-Dade County Public School District in Florida has lost at least 8,000 students, primarily from pre-K and kindergarten students.
College Enrollment Slid This Fall, With First-Year Populations Down 16% – WSJ - Undergraduate enrollment tumbled this fall at many colleges and universities around the country, dragged down by a sharp drop in first-year students whose school plans were upended by the coronavirus pandemic. Overall, undergraduate populations shrank by 4%, and first-year student counts fell by 16.1%, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Graduate enrollment increased by 2.7%. The tally includes 9.2 million students, from more than half of schools that report data to the Clearinghouse. Would-be students have interrupted their college aspirations for a range of reasons, including not wanting to take classes online, concern over traveling to places that were considered Covid-19 hot spots and financial strains related to family job losses. The number of men enrolled in undergraduate programs fell by 6.4%, compared with a 2.2% drop among women, exacerbating a longstanding imbalance in the gender makeup of college students.By school type, enrollment declines were sharpest at community colleges, off 9.4% overall and 22.7% for first-year students.That sector generally fares well during economic downturns, with out-of-work adults looking to add skills and younger students trying to save money on tuition. This time, initial discussions of a quick, V-shaped economic recovery may have left unemployed adultsthinking it wasn’t worth it to invest months or years in a new certificate or degree program, said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.And, he said, those who steered clear of enrolling as freshmen at community colleges likely did so because of strained family finances or other obstacles, not because of personal preference for a campus experience.“I fear that many of those students will never get back,” he said.Enrollment at four-year public colleges and universities fell by 1.4% overall, and 13.7% for first-year undergraduates. At private, nonprofit colleges, those declines were 2% and 11.8%, respectively.
College Enrollments Drop Due to Covid, Adding to Budget Damage Yves Smith - It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to learn that the number of students attending college has fallen due to Covid-19, 16% for incoming students and 4% overall, with the total decline greatest among foreign students. Those foreign students, who pay top dollar, have been staying away first due to China bashing (the Chinese were very well represented) and then due to Covid risks and travel restrictions. Remember that the drop in enrollment comes on top of other hits to revenues. We gave the broad outlines of how Covid-19 translated into a grim future for higher education in May: As our May piece anticipated, the shift to online instruction is a net loser. Students on campus generate lots of other income. Some schools like Princeton have lowered their tuition as an acknowledgement that online instruction is inferior to live classes; holdouts like Harvard have gotten a lot of criticism but have not relented.The spate of articles on enrollment levels in higher educational institutions breaks out the results by type of organization as well as other categories, like the fall in male enrollment (6.4%) versus female (2.2%). But one surprise is the big hit to community colleges, which saw a 22.7% drop in enrollment. From the Wall Street Journal: We had thought that young people might switch from four-year degree programs to the more practical instruction that community colleges offer. What appears to have happened instead is that the devastation in lower-income jobs hurt the ability of students to work part-time to participate in those programs, and may also have reduced the attractiveness of some programs.From Bloomberg:Empty seats are inflicting financial damage on colleges already reeling from the pandemic. Earlier this year, when the virus began spreading, many schools cleared their campuses of students and refunded housing costs. With enrollment waning, revenue from tuition, dormitories and dining halls is being hurt at a time when some institutions are posting low endowment returns.“The colleges are losing billions of dollars,” said Jack Maguire, founder of the enrollment-consulting firm Maguire Associates and former dean of admissions at Boston College. “It may not be the end of it if this new waves hits and students are sent home again.” On the one hand, it’s hard to feel sorry for most of these institutions, since it’s become evident that the beancounters are in charge and the educational mission has become a mere product, and too often crapified in the process. Add to that the fact that the adminisphere and top level salary bloat is inextricably tied to relentless increases in higher educational costs and student debt burdens. But as with the economy overall, the ones that will take the hits first are low level workers like food service personnel and adjuncts.
University warns about college students trying to contract COVID-19 to make money donating plasma with antibodies - Brigham Young University-Idaho warned on Monday about accounts of college students “intentionally” trying to contract COVID-19 in order to make money by donating plasma with antibodies. The Idaho university issued a statement saying officials were “deeply troubled” by the alleged behavior and “is actively seeking evidence of such conduct among our student body.” “Students who are determined to have intentionally exposed themselves or others to the virus will be immediately suspended from the university and may be permanently dismissed,” the university stated.“The contraction and spread of COVID-19 is not a light matter,” the statement continued. “Reckless disregard for health and safety will inevitably lead to additional illness and loss of life in our community.”University officials noted that they had previously cautioned last month that if Idaho or Madison County continue to experience surges in cases, the university may have to switch to fully online learning. The release also encouraged students who are participating in this behavior to consult financial and mental health resources, saying, “There is never a need to resort to behavior that endangers health or safety in order to make ends meet.”Brigham Young University-Idaho has confirmed 109 COVID-19 cases among students and 22 cases among employees.The Food and Drug Administration permitted convalescent plasmas from COVID-19 survivors to be used as an emergency therapy for those with coronavirus. The FDA states that the plasma that has antibodies "may be effective in treating COVID-19 and that the known and potential benefits of the product outweigh the known and potential risks." Two potential plasma donation locations near the university are the Grifols Biomat USA Rexburg location and the BioLife Plasma Services, NPR reported. The first’s website says it gives donors $100 per visit and East Idaho News reported the latter provides $200 for each of the donor’s first two visits.
Alabama coach Nick Saban cleared to coach against Georgia days after COVID-19 diagnosis - Alabama coach Nick Saban cleared to coach against Georgia days after COVID-19 diagnosis - University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban has been cleared to coach the team's game against Georgia from the sidelines Saturday night after testing positive for the coronavirus earlier this week. "Due to the fact that Coach Saban has remained completely symptom-free and had five negative PCR tests, split between two separate labs, the initial test from Wednesday is considered a false positive under the SEC protocols," Alabama team physician Jimmy Robinson said in a statement, according to CBS Sports. "Again, that initial positive result came from an outside lab we've used to supplement the SEC mandated testing." The school announced Wednesday that Saban, 68, and the school's athletic director had both received positive test results. All coaches, players and staff associated with the team are regularly tested, the school says. Upon learning he had tested positive, Saban told local media outlets he immediately went home and has been in self-isolation since. Several games scheduled for Saturday in the Southeastern Conference were forced to postpone or cancel due to positive test results among players, coaches or staff.
Florida's Dan Mullen learns the hard way about COVID-19 -- The coronavirus is relentless, insidious, infectious and completely oblivious to your opinions. Last Saturday afternoon, Florida coach Dan Mullen was pushing for his school to allow some 90,000 fans to jam Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for this week’s matchup with LSU. By Wednesday, the game was postponed due to an outbreak of COVID-19 among Florida players and coaches. By Saturday, Mullen announced he had COVID-19 himself. Just like that. There is no need to pile on Mullen. After all, the 48-year-old is stuck dealing with self-isolation, an uncertain schedule and a team full of positive tests. And hopefully that is the worst of it. Hopefully he and his players only experience mild, if any, symptoms. You never know with COVID though.
Over 300 faculty at Youngstown State University in Ohio strike for the first time in 15 years - On Monday morning, over 300 faculty at Youngstown State University (YSU), in Ohio, went on strike after contract negotiations broke down last week between the administration and the union, Ohio Education Association (OEA). Faculty at YSU have been working without a contract since August 23. The faculty strike is the first at the university in 15 years, and is part of a growing wave of unrest among educators across the US and internationally who are opposed to deepening austerity and unsafe working conditions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large sections of YSU faculty have been forced to return to campus for in-person instruction. While there have not been any major outbreaks so far, there are immense dangers posed. Across the US, over 178,000 cases have been tied to over 1,400 colleges and universities that have reopened. Last week, the YSU Board of Trustees rejected a fact-finding report that had been widely approved by OEA membership. In an expression of militancy among faculty, the strike vote concluded on Saturday with 86 percent of the 337 OEA members voting to approve the action, with only nine percent voting against a strike and five percent abstaining. The latest proposal from the administration mandates that faculty receive no pay raise the first year of the contract, a one percent raise the second year, and a two percent raise the third year. With inflation, this will amount to a significant pay cut over the next three years. Second-year lecturers, senior lecturers and assistant professors would receive a $1,000 lump sum payment, while associate and full professors would receive a $750 sum payment. For third-year lecturers, health insurance premiums would also rise from 15 to 18 percent.
Biden Is Trying to Bribe Voters With Student Loan Forgiveness | Opinion - We put five children through college (one is still attending). We saved up. We never took out any loans, as we didn't want our kids burdened with debt. Our kids went to William & Mary, Mary Washington, Dartmouth, Johns Hopkins and the University of Pennsylvania. So far, the total costs for these colleges has been well over $600,000.Last Tuesday, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden reaffirmed his commitment to broad student loan forgiveness at a town hall event in Miami: "I'm going to eliminate your student debt." If your family made less than $125,000 per year, as ours did, then Biden will forgive any debt incurred at public universities. He promised that others will also benefit: "Everyone gets $10,000 knocked off of their student debt." Also, he pledged to give young people $15,000 toward down payments on their first homes.Should we have just borrowed all of this money and sent our kids to public universities? If so, we could have had $600,000 to spend on all sorts of other things—nicer cars, nicer houses or fun trips. Or it is money that we could have given our children and grandchildren when we die. We always purchased used cars that were a year old. My Ford Taurus lasted for 16 years and had over 225,000 miles on it. My wife's Pontiac Transport lasted almost as long before rust meant that it could no longer pass the state's yearly safety check.But we didn't complain. We promised our children that if they worked hard and got into a good college, we would figure out a way to pay for them to go there. We were proud of our children's hard work, and we thought that going to a top university was important for their success in life. So, because we saved up and behaved responsibly, Joe Biden will punish us. Those who didn't save or work 80- to 90-hour weeks, who spent their money on nice things, now get us and other taxpayers to pick up the tab for their kids' education. How exactly is that fair? Nor is it fair to those who don't go to college. The people who go to college generally tend to be the wealthy citizens of the future. Why should those who didn't go to college, and are relatively poorer, end up giving large amounts of money to those who did go and are going to be wealthy? Biden's proposal will also be the death knell for many private schools, which will have a hard time competing against tuition-free public universities. The Obama administration put private, for-profit colleges out of business, and a Biden administration will finish the job with many nonprofit private colleges.
Social Security Benefits to Rise 1.3% in 2021 – WSJ - Seniors and other Americans receiving Social Security will see a 1.3% increase in benefits next year, the federal government said Tuesday. The 2021 cost-of-living adjustment is smaller than this year’s 1.6% increase and would translate into a $20 boost in retirees’ average monthly benefit, the Social Security Administration said. The agency each year bases its cost-of-living increase on the Labor Department’s consumer-price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, or CPI-W, a measure of inflation that is slightly different from the more commonly cited overall consumer-price index, or CPI. The index’s average for the third quarter of this year was 1.3% higher than the same period last year, translating to a cost-of-living adjustment by that amount. Medicare’s trustees in April projected the standard 2021 monthly premium for Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits and other types of outpatient care, would increase by $8.70 to $153.30 from $144.60 this year. The trustees, citing uncertainty around the Covid-19 outbreak, didn’t factor any potential impacts from the pandemic into their projections. However, such a rise in Part B standard premiums would consume about 43% of the increase in the average monthly Social Security retirement benefit. Congress, as part of a short-term government funding deal passed in September, included a measure to limit increases in Medicare Part B premiums next year. The monthly premium for Medicare Part B increased by $9.10 in 2020 compared with 2019. The administration also said the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax will increase to $142,800 in 2021 from $137,700 this year, a 3.7% increase. The broader CPI—a gauge of inflation that measures what consumers are paying for goods and services including gas, food and shelter—increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September compared with the prior month, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.2% rise. September’s rise in prices marked the fourth straight month of gains, although it was a smaller increase than in June, July and August. Excluding the often-volatile categories of food and energy, so-called core prices also rose 0.2%, the same as economists had forecast. Prices for used vehicles were up 6.7% last month, accounting for most of the gain in the overall index, the Labor Department said. Prices for dining out rose 0.6%, while grocery prices fell, leaving overall food prices unchanged. Fuel oil prices were down sharply, by 5.3%. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the overall consumer-price index rose 1.4% in September from a year earlier and core prices increased 1.7% over the year. The 12-month trend in both overall and core prices has moved upward in recent months as Americans have resumed activities after the end of business and social restrictions adopted earlier this year to stem the spread of the virus.
Johnson & Johnson adds $1B to opioid settlement --Johnson & Johnson announced on Tuesday that it is adding $1 billion to its contribution to the all-in settlement deal struck last year that would resolve opioid lawsuits against the company. The settlement is part of the $48 billion framework that four states announced one year ago in which Johnson & Johnson and four other companies agreed to provide $22 billion in cash and $26 billion worth of a generic opioid addiction treatment, product distribution and data tracking measures. The drugmaker said its additional contribution “results from continued negotiations and is intended to maximize participation in the settlement.” The amount brings the company’s contribution up to $5 billion. Johnson & Johnson said the settlement “is not an admission of liability or wrongdoing, and the Company will continue to defend against any litigation that the final agreement does not resolve.” “The settlement will provide certainty for involved parties and critical assistance for families and communities in need,” the company said. The terms of the settlement still have to be finalized. Under the original agreement, each state and local governments will receive a share of the $22 billion in cash to provide addiction treatment, paramedic services and telehealth treatment. McKesson, a drug distributor, agreed to pay the highest amount of all the companies with $6.68 billion over 18 years. AmerisourceBergen and Cardinal Health, other distributors, agreed to pay about $5.6 billion each over 18 years. Teva, a drugmaker, agreed to supply $23 billion of its generic suboxone product over 10 years. However, these companies aren’t the only ones caught in the fire as the nation grapples with the opioid epidemic. World's top-ranked golfer Dustin Johnson tests positive for COVID-19 Vaccine development process is safe, claims of the contrary are... Mallinckrodt, the largest maker of generic opioids, filed for bankruptcy on Monday as it faces more than $1 billion in costs from lawsuits over its role in fueling the opioid crisis. The company in February agreed to a $1.6 billion settlement with 47 attorneys general over the lawsuits. It outlined a structure for making its settlement payments, beginning with a $450 million payment upon emerging form bankruptcy proceedings. Meanwhile, Purdue Pharma is reportedly close to reaching an agreement to plead guilty to charges related to worsening the epidemic, according to Reuters. The company could face penalties exceeding $8 billion between civil and criminal charges.
Studies offer new evidence for possible link between blood type & COVID-19 susceptibility - Two studies published today in Blood Advances suggest people with blood type O may have a lower risk of COVID-19 infection and reduced likelihood of severe outcomes, including organ complications, if they do get sick.new studies add evidence that there may be an association between blood type and vulnerability to COVID-19; however, additional research is needed to better understand why and what it means for patients. Blood type O may offer some protection against COVID-19 infection, according to a retrospective study . Researchers compared Danish health registry data from more than 473,000 individuals tested for COVID-19 to data from a control group of more than 2.2 million people from the general population. Among the COVID-19 positive, they found fewer people with blood type O and more people with A, B, and AB types. The study results suggest that people with blood types A, B, or AB may be more likely to be infected with COVID-19 than people with type O. The researchers did not find any significant difference in rate of infection between A, B, and AB types. Since blood group distributions vary among ethnic subgroups, the researchers also controlled for ethnicity and maintained that fewer people with blood type O tested positive for the virus. "It is very important to consider the proper control group because blood type prevalence may vary considerably in different ethnic groups and different countries," Blood groups A and AB associated with increased risk of severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 infection People with blood groups A or AB appear to exhibit greater COVID-19 disease severity than people with blood groups O or B, according to a separate retrospective study . Researchers examined data from 95 critically ill COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Vancouver, Canada. They found that patients with blood groups A or AB were more likely to require mechanical ventilation, suggesting that they had greater rates of lung injury from COVID-19. They also found more patients with blood group A and AB required dialysis for kidney failure. Together, these findings suggest that patients in these two blood groups may have an increased risk of organ dysfunction or failure due to COVID-19 than people with blood types O or B. Furthermore, while people with blood types A and AB did not have longer overall hospital stays than those with types O or B, they did remain in the intensive care unit (ICU) for a longer average time, which may also signal a greater COVID-19 severity level.
China Finds Active Covid-19 Virus on Frozen Food Packaging - China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention said it found active Covid-19 virus on the outer component of refrigerated food packaging, adding that it showed the possibility of infection via such contaminated surfaces, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The virus was found on food packaging in the coastal city of Qingdao in Shandong province, the report said, without specifying the origin of the product. Qingdao has reported a dozen new virus cases this month, most linked to a hospital where infected travelers from overseas are being treated. China has said several times in recent months that imported refrigerated goods are risks for re-introducing the coronavirus into the country. It had previously tested product packaging from various countries and found positive cases of the virus. It subsequently banned imported products including seafood from Indonesia and chicken wings from Brazil following positive tests on shipping containers and food packaging. World Health Organization experts have suggested there’s no evidence the virus can be transported via food packaging.
Age does not contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility, does contribute to seriousness - Scientists have estimated that the age of an individual does not indicate how likely they are to be infected by SARS-CoV-2. However, development of symptoms, progression of the disease, and mortality are age-dependent. There have been a large number of deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it has been shown that elderly individuals disproportionately develop severe symptoms and show higher mortality. A team of scientists, including Associate Professor Ryosuke Omori from the Research Center for Zoonoses Control at Hokkaido University, have modeled available data from Japan, Spain and Italy to show that susceptibility to COVID-19 is independent of age, while occurrence of symptomatic COVID-19, severity and mortality is likely dependent on age. Their results were published in the journal Scientific Reports on October 6, 2020. Causes of mortality in elderly individuals may be due to two factors: how likely they are to be infected due to their advanced age (age-dependent susceptibility), which is reflected in the number of cases; and, how likely they will be affected by a severe form of the disease due to their advanced age (age-dependent severity), which is reflected in the mortality rate. These factors are not fully understood for COVID-19. The scientists chose to analyse data from Italy, Spain and Japan to determine if any relationship between age, susceptibility and severity. These three countries were chosen as they have well recorded, publicly available data. As of May 2020, the mortality rate (number of deaths per 100,000) was 382.3 for Italy, 507.2 for Spain and 13.2 for Japan. However, despite the wide disparity in mortality rates, the age distribution of mortality (the proportional number of deaths per age group) was similar for these countries.
Very low risk to newborns from moms with COVID-19, finds study--Mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely transmit the virus to their newborns when basic infection-control practices are followed, according to a new study by researchers at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children's Hospital. The findings--the most detailed data available on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between moms and their newborns--suggest that more extensive measures like separating COVID-19-positive mothers from their newborns and avoiding direct breastfeeding may not be warranted. The study was published online today in JAMA Pediatrics. "Our findings should reassure expectant mothers with COVID-19 that basic infection-control measures during and after childbirth--such as wearing a mask and engaging in breast and hand hygiene when holding or breastfeeding a baby--protected newborns from infection in this series," The researchers examined outcomes in the first 101 newborns born to COVID-19-positive mothers at NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children's Hospital or NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital from March 13 to April 24, 2020. To reduce the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to newborns after delivery, hospital staff practiced social distancing, wore masks, and placed COVID-positive moms in private rooms. The hospitals provided the mothers with educational materials about COVID-19 and shortened hospital stays for all mothers without complications from delivery. Most of the newborns roomed with their mothers, including during the first postpartum checkup. (Some were admitted to the newborn intensive care unit for non-COVID-related health reasons.) Infants who roomed with their moms were placed in protective cribs six feet away from the mothers' beds when resting. Direct breastfeeding and skin-to-skin contact with babies were strongly encouraged, provided the moms wore masks and washed hands and breasts with soap and water. Only two of the newborns tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 but had no clinical evidence of illness.
COVID-19 frequently causes neurological injuries - Without directly invading the brain or nerves, the virus responsible for COVID-19 causes potentially damaging neurological injuries in about one in seven infected, a new study shows. These injuries range from temporary confusion due to low body-oxygen levels, to stroke and seizures in the most serious cases, say the study authors.Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the study showed no cases of brain or nerve inflammation (meningitis or encephalitis), indicating no immediate invasion of these organs by the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2.While this should reassure patients, the neurological complications of COVID-19 should be taken seriously because they dramatically raise a patient's risk of dying while still in hospital (by 38 percent), researchers say. Such adverse effects also raise a coronavirus patient's likelihood (by 28 percent) of needing long-term or rehabilitation therapy immediately after their stay in hospital."The results of our study showed no signs that the coronavirus directly attacks the nervous system," says study lead investigator Jennifer Frontera, MD. "The neurological complications seen in COVID-19 are predominately the secondary effects of being severely ill and suffering from low oxygen levels in the body for prolonged periods of time," says Frontera, a professor in the Department of Neurology at NYU Langone Health.
A rare Covid complication is showing up in adults weeks after they have the virus - It was a rash that tipped Dr. Alisa Femia off.Femia, director of inpatient dermatology at NYU Langone Health in New York City, was looking at a patient's chart, which included several photos of the 45-year-old man who had, in recent weeks, cared for his wife while she was sick with Covid-19. The man had dusky-red circular patches on the palms of his hands and the soles of his feet. His eyes were pink, and his lips were extremely chapped. His body was erupting with the kind of extreme inflammation noted almostexclusively in children at the time."Before I even saw the patient," Femia recalled, "I said: 'This hasn't been reported yet. This must be MIS-A.'"MIS-A stands for "multi-system inflammatory syndrome in adults." When the condition was identified in children this spring, it was named MIS-C, with the C standing for "children."Kids were developing dangerous inflammation around the heart and other organs, often weeks after their initial infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alerted physicians to MIS-C in May. As of Oct. 1, the CDC had reported 1,027 confirmed cases of MIS-C, with more cases under investigation. Twenty children have died. In some cases, the children developed rashes like the one Femia noted in her adult patient.Femia and colleagues published details of the case in The Lancet in July to alert other physicians to be on the lookout for similar patients."The skin's right there in front of your eyes," Femia said. "You can't not see it."But many doctors may not, in fact, be recognizing the condition in adults. Just a few dozen cases of MIS-A have been reported. And not all patients have obvious rashes.Dr. Sapna Bamrah Morris, clinical lead for the Health Care Systems and Worker Safety Task Force, part of the CDC's Covid-19 response, detailed 27 cases in areport the agency published last week. MIS-A's "true prevalence is unknown," Morris said. "We have to get physicians realizing that. It may be rare, but we don't know. It might be more common than we think."
Battle Rages Inside Hospitals Over How COVID Strikes and Kills: Aerosols or Droplets --Front-line health care workers are locked in a heated dispute with many infection control specialists and hospital administrators over how the novel coronavirus is spread ― and therefore, what level of protective gear is appropriate.At issue is the degree to which the virus is airborne ― capable of spreading through tiny aerosol particles lingering in the air ― or primarily transmitted through large, faster-falling droplets from, say, a sneeze or cough. This wonky, seemingly semantic debate has a real-world impact on what sort of protective measures health care companies need to take to protect their patients and workers.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention injected confusion into the debate Friday with guidance putting new emphasis on airborne transmission and saying the tiny aerosol particles, as well as larger droplets, are the “main way the virus spreads.” By Monday that language was gonefrom its website, and the agency explained that it had posted a “draft version of proposed changes” in error and that experts were still working on updating “recommendations regarding airborne transmission.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, addressed the debate head-on in aSept. 10 webcast for the Harvard Medical School, pointing to scientists specializing in aerosols who argued the CDC had “really gotten it wrong over many, many years.”“Bottom line is, there’s much more aerosol [transmission] than we thought,” Fauci said. The topic has been deeply divisive within hospitals, largely because the question of whether an illness spreads by droplets or aerosols drives two different sets of protective practices, touching on everything from airflow within hospital wards to patient isolation to choices of protective gear. Enhanced protections would be expensive and disruptive to a number of industries, but particularly to hospitals, which have fought to keep lower-level “droplet” protections in place.The hospital administrators and epidemiologists who argue that the virus is mostly droplet-spread cite studies that show it spreads to a small number of people, like a cold or flu. Therefore, N95 respirators and strict patient isolation practices aren’t necessary for routine care of COVID-19 patients, those officials say.On the other side are many occupational safety experts, aerosol scientists, front-line health care workers and their unions, who are quick to note that the novel coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu ― and argue that the science suggests that high-quality, and costlier, N95 respirators should be required for routine COVID-19 patient care.
Coronavirus Survives On Banknotes For Up To 4 Weeks, Study Finds, As Cash Usage Plunges - Bloomberg revived concerns about paper money contributing to the spread of COVID-19 by publicizing the findings from a new study suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 can persist on banknotes and coins for weeks. The research appears to be credible: it was conducted by Australia's top biosecurity laboratory, which published a report highlighting the risks of paper currency, touch screens and handles like doorknobs. As the CDC releases revised guidelines claiming that close contact with the infected trumps surfaces and aerosol - or 'airborne' - transmission as the primary means of infection, the study from the Australian Center for Disease Preparedness suggested that the virus is actually "extremely robust", allowing it to survive for up to 28 days on smooth surfaces like glass or the material used to print banknotes. However, the rate of survival on surfaces declined dramatically when the temperature climbed to above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Farenheit).Virus survival declined to less than a day at 40 degrees Celsius on some surfaces, according to the study, published Monday in Virology Journal. The findings add to evidence that the Covid-19-causing coronavirus survives for longer in cooler weather, making it potentially harder to control in winter than summer. The research also helps to more accurately predict and mitigate the pandemic’s spread, the researchers said.“Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 can remain infectious on surfaces for long periods of time, reinforcing the need for good practices such as regular hand washing and cleaning surfaces,” said Debbie Eagles, the center’s deputy director, in an emailed statement.The coronavirus tended to survive longer on nonporous or smooth surfaces, compared with porous complex surfaces, such as cotton. "The research may also help to explain the apparent persistence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in cool environments with high lipid or protein contamination, such as meat processing facilities and how we might better address that risk," Trevor Drew, director of the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, said in the statement. The virus's extended survival time on stainless steel surfaces could help explain all those outbreaks traced to meat processing plants. The research, which was backed by the Australian department of defense, also concluded that SARS-CoV-2 survives for far longer on surfaces than the seasonal flu.
The effect of temperature on persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on common surfaces Virology Journal. Abstract:
- Background: The rate at which COVID-19 has spread throughout the globe has been alarming. While the role of fomite transmission is not yet fully understood, precise data on the environmental stability of SARS-CoV-2 is required to determine the risks of fomite transmission from contaminated surfaces.
- Methods: This study measured the survival rates of infectious SARS-CoV-2, suspended in a standard ASTM E2197 matrix, on several common surface types. All experiments were carried out in the dark, to negate any effects of UV light. Inoculated surfaces were incubated at 20 °C, 30 °C and 40 °C and sampled at various time points.
- Results 'Survival rates of SARS-CoV-2 were determined at different temperatures and D-values, Z-values and half-life were calculated. We obtained half lives of between 1.7 and 2.7 days at 20 °C, reducing to a few hours when temperature was elevated to 40 °C. With initial viral loads broadly equivalent to the highest titres excreted by infectious patients, viable virus was isolated for up to 28 days at 20 °C from common surfaces such as glass, stainless steel and both paper and polymer banknotes. Conversely, infectious virus survived less than 24 h at 40 °C on some surfaces.
- Conclusion These findings demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 can remain infectious for significantly longer time periods than generally considered possible. These results could be used to inform improved risk mitigation procedures to prevent the fomite spread of COVID-19.
Abbott wins U.S. emergency use authorization for new COVID-19 antibody test (Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories said on Monday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency use authorization for its lab-based COVID-19 antibody blood test. The test, AdviseDx, can be used to identify a type of antibody called Immunoglobulin M (IgM) in blood samples to determine if someone has been exposure to the novel coronavirus, potentially indicating a recent or prior infection. Abbott has already received emergency use authorization for seven tests, including molecular tests, a rapid antigen test and another test which can detect a type of antibody called IgG. The FDA’s emergency use authorization allows the use of unapproved medical products in an emergency to diagnose, treat, or prevent serious or life-threatening diseases with no adequate or approved alternatives. IgG is longer lasting in the body after an infection, but IgM is more useful for determining a recent exposure to the coronavirus as these antibodies become undetectable weeks to months following an infection, Abbott said here. Unlike molecular tests, which can detect whether someone has the coronavirus, antibody tests determine if someone has had a previous infection by detecting disease-fighting proteins called antibodies. However, antibody tests are not recommended as the sole basis of diagnosis of COVID-19 as these antibodies may not be detected in the early days of the infection.
Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine study paused due to unexplained illness in participant - The study of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine has been paused due to an unexplained illness in a study participant. A document sent to outside researchers running the 60,000-patient clinical trial states that a "pausing rule" has been met, that the online system used to enroll patients in the study has been closed, and that the data and safety monitoring board — an independent committee that watches over the safety of patients in the clinical trial — would be convened. The document was obtained by STAT. Contacted by STAT, J&J confirmed the study pause, saying it was due to "an unexplained illness in a study participant." The company declined to provide further details. "We must respect this participant's privacy. We're also learning more about this participant's illness, and it's important to have all the facts before we share additional information," the company said in a statement. J&J emphasized that so-called adverse events — illnesses, accidents, and other bad medical outcomes — are an expected part of a clinical study, and also emphasized the difference between a study pause and a clinical hold, which is a formal regulatory action that can last much longer. The vaccine study is not currently under a clinical hold. J&J said that while it normally communicates clinical holds to the public, it does not usually inform the public of study pauses. The data and safety monitoring board, or DSMB, convened late Monday to review the case. J&J said that in cases like this "it is not always immediately apparent" whether the participant who experienced an adverse event received a study treatment or a placebo. Though clinical trial pauses are not uncommon — and in some cases last only a few days — they are generating outsized attention in the race to test vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Given the size of Johnson & Johnson's trial, it's not surprising that study pauses could occur, and another could happen if this one resolves, a source familiar with the study said. "If we do a study of 60,000 people, that is a small village," the source said. "In a small village there are a lot of medical events that happen."
Eli Lilly pauses study of COVID-19 treatment over safety concerns - Eli Lilly's late-stage clinical trial of a monoclonal antibody treatment for COVID-19 has been paused by federal regulators due a safety concern, the company said Tuesday. "Safety is of the utmost importance to Lilly. We are aware that, out of an abundance of caution, the ACTIV-3 independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) has recommended a pause in enrollment," spokeswoman Molly McCully told The Hill in an emailed statement. "Lilly is supportive of the decision by the independent DSMB to cautiously ensure the safety of the patients participating in this study," McCully added. She did not provide any information about what caused the panel to recommend the pause or how long it might last. The clinical trial is designed to evaluate Lilly’s neutralizing antibody as a treatment for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients in combination with the antiviral drug remdesivir. It is being tested against a combination of remdesivir and a placebo. The trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases as well as the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed. Thus far, more than 850 trial participants have been dosed, but the company said data from the trial is not yet available. Monoclonal antibodies are lab-generated versions of one of the human body's main defenses against pathogens.
Have the Democrats Risked Ruin by Increasing Vaccine Hesitancy in the Electorate? - A failure of Covid vaccine uptake threatens the United States with ruin. Therefore, Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Precautionary Principle applies. Liberal Democrat election tactics have violated the Precautionary Principle by turning Trump into a demonic figure. In so doing, they may well have created “the horn effect” (the opposite of the halo effect) around the Administration’s vaccine development effort, Operation Warp Speed, thereby increasing vaccine hesitancy in the public, and risking vaccine uptake failure. The Trump Administration’s vaccine plan is called Operation Warp Speed; I have written about it here. The program design is clever: The Federal governement pays vaccine makers to work in parallel, developing vaccines and taking them all the way to the manufacturing stage without knowing they’ll work, in the hopes that one or more will pan out; that’s wasteful, to be sure, but not nearly as wasteful as ruin. (Similarly, given the PP, “goo goo” pearl-clutching about contracts and contractors is not relevant. I wish we didn’t have to rely on Big Pharma to do all this, but that’s where we are as a society so there’s no point fussing.) Authority figures like Dr. Anthony Fauci have said that Operation Warp speed should deliver at least one safe and effective vaccine in a few months. Good news, right? Well, that’s not how the Democrats are acting.To understand the oddities of the Democrat position, let’s look at the debates. First this exchange from Trump v. Biden:
- BIDEN: In terms of the whole notion of a vaccine, we’re for a vaccine, but I don’t trust him at all. Nor do you. I know you don’t. What we trust is a scientist.
- TRUMP: You don’t trust Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer?
Trump is correct, and a more disciplined debater would have pointed out — and more on-the-ball moderator followed up on — that Biden’s own platform “trust[s] Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer.” Here is the Biden platform on the technical aspects of vaccines: Invest $25 billion in a vaccine manufacturing and distribution plan that will guarantee it gets to every American, cost-free. Remarkably, Biden’s platform says nothing about developing or testing vaccines, implying by omission that Johnson & Johnson will have done their jobs. In other words, he assumes Operation Warp speed will succeed in producing a safe and effective vaccine. However, Biden is committed to different narrative: Turning Trump into a demon figure. From further on in the transcript we have this really rather astonishing exchange:
A 25-year-old man becomes first in the U.S. to contract coronavirus twice, with second infection - A 25-year-old man in the U.S. state of Nevada has contracted the coronavirus on two separate occasions, a study in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal showed, with the patient becoming seriously ill following the second infection. It is the first confirmed case of a U.S. patient becoming re-infected with Covid-19, and the fifth known case reported worldwide. The resident of Washoe County, who had no known immune disorders or history of significant underlying conditions, required hospital treatment on testing positive for Covid-19 for the second time. He has now recovered, though the case raises further questions about the prospect of developing protective immunity against the coronavirus. To date, more than 37.8 million people have contracted Covid-19 worldwide, with 1.08 million related deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The head of emergencies at the WHO said earlier this month that its "best estimates" indicate that roughly 1 in 10 people globally may have been infected by the coronavirus, significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases. On March 25, the peer-reviewed medical journal said in a study that a 25-year-old man in Nevada's second-most populous county experienced a wave of symptoms consistent with a viral infection, including sore throat, cough, headache, nausea and diarrhea. He presented to a community testing event held by Washoe County Health District on April 18 and tested positive for Covid-19 for the first time. The patient's initial symptoms fully cleared during isolation on April 27. He continued to feel well thereafter and tested negative for the coronavirus on two separate occasions, on May 9 and on May 26. The 25-year-old experienced symptoms again from May 28, this time including fever, headache, dizziness, cough, nausea, and diarrhea. On June 5, 48 days after the initial positive test, the patient contracted the virus for the second time. His condition was found to be symptomatically "more severe" than the first. He presented to a primary care doctor and required hospital treatment on experiencing shortness of breath. He later recovered and was discharged from the hospital.
Total deaths recorded during the pandemic far exceed those attributed to COVID-19 - - For every two deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S., a third American dies as a result of the pandemic, according to new data publishing Oct. 12 in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The study, led by researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University, shows that deaths between March 1 and Aug. 1 increased 20% compared to previous years -- maybe not surprising in a pandemic. But deaths attributed to COVID-19 only accounted for 67% of those deaths. "Contrary to skeptics who claim that COVID-19 deaths are fake or that the numbers are much smaller than we hear on the news, our research and many other studies on the same subject show quite the opposite," said lead author Steven Woolf, M.D., director emeritus of VCU's Center on Society and Health. The study also contains suggestive evidence that state policies on reopening early in April and May may have fueled the surges experienced in June and July. "The high death counts in Sun Belt states show us the grave consequences of how some states responded to the pandemic and sound the alarm not to repeat this mistake going forward," Total death counts in the U.S. are remarkably consistent from year to year, as the study notes. The study authors pulled data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 2014 to 2020, using regression models to predict expected deaths for 2020. The gap between reported COVID-19 deaths and all unexpected deaths can be partially explained by delays in reporting COVID-19 deaths, miscoding or other data limitations, Woolf said. But the pandemic's other ripple effects could explain more. "Some people who never had the virus may have died because of disruptions caused by the pandemic,""These include people with acute emergencies, chronic diseases like diabetes that were not properly care for, or emotional crises that led to overdoses or suicides."
Army chief of staff: COVID-19 having effect on troop suicides - Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said Tuesday that he sees a direct correlation between COVID-19 and the rise in troop suicides. “I am very concerned about the behavioral health impacts of COVID and its effect on our soldiers,” McConville told reporters at the Pentagon. "Some of the scientists have said they've not been able to show causation between COVID and suicide, but I would argue, at least my sense is, it is having an effect because it disconnects people.” Army leadership has voiced concern about the increase in suicides in its ranks since March, when many people were told to stay home due to the coronavirus pandemic and the Pentagon began to limit movement of forces. The Associated Press first reported last month that military suicide deaths since early spring were up as much as 20 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Among Army active-duty troops, that increase was around 30 percent, with 114 suicides as of Aug. 31, compared to 88 last year. July saw the most suicides at 35 — more than one a day. Following the report’s release, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and McConville said that the service has moved to improve access to behavioral health care “in the face of additional stress of a pandemic.” But officials have been hesitant to link COVID-19 to the increase in military members taking their own lives. Earlier this month, Defense Suicide Prevention Office Director Karin Orvis told reporters that it was too early to make a connection, as suicide counts “do not account for changes in population size or provide enough time for essential investigations to determine cause of death.”
COVID-19 devastates Native American reservations in California and across the US - The COVID-19 pandemic has had a harmful impact on Native American reservations across much of the United States. As many tribes rely on revenue from casinos and other gambling operations, the pandemic has led to job losses and depleted funding for social services. The residents of reservations—among the poorest and most isolated places in the country, where homes often lack electricity or running water—have suffered higher than average rates of infection and death from coronavirus. While the pandemic has continued to rage across the US, the wealthy owners of lucrative casinos have insisted on re-opening without any significant restrictions regardless of the health consequences. Casino workers and tribal residents, among the most exploited layers of the population, have been made to suffer as a result. Marquee outside the Golden Moon Casino and Hotel run by the Choctaw Tribe. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis) Early last month, a Harrah’s Resort Southern California executive resigned in May after raising concerns about reopening the casino in the middle of a global pandemic. The resort is owned by the Rincon Band of the Luiseno Indians. Darrel Pilant, a general manager and senior vice president and employee of 23 years, filed a lawsuit against the casino’s operator, Caesars Entertainment Inc., after claiming he was forced to resign after Harrah’s made moves to reopen its casino resort back in May of this year, in defiance of a mandated stay at home order issued by Governor Gavin Newsom. Pilant stated that the decision to reopen the casino caused “serious adverse health and safety consequences involving employees and customers contracting COVID-19.” Through September of this year, 217 residents of San Diego County who contracted the novel virus reported being at a casino within two weeks of becoming ill. The numbers reported included 12 hospitalizations and the death of one casino patron. All the confirmed cases were connected to San Diego County’s nine casinos and include 76 employees and 141 patrons. Casino spokespersons were quick to deny responsibility by stating that casino patrons who tested positive cannot confirm that they contracted the virus from a casino itself, and furthermore, San Diego County officials have refused to name the specific tribal casinos where each of the outbreaks have occurred.
California COVID-19 Outbreak Accelerates; Dr. Fauci Says Trump Ad Took Comments Out Of Context - The US added 50k+ new cases for a fourth straight day on Saturday, and it looks like the US is on track to top that number for a 5th day on Sunday. In the US, California reported 3,803 new cases, a 0.5% increase from the previous day, to 846,579, a number that was higher than the previous week’s daily average. Deaths increased by 64 to 16,564. Texas meanwhile reported 31 deaths bringing the a total to 16,557. The number of new cases increased by 2,262, the lowest number in six days, to 792,478. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that a new ad released by the Trump campaign takes him out of context, where a quote from a press briefing earlier this year says "I can't imagine anybody doing more". "In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate," Dr. Fauci told CNN. In other news, Italy reported 5,456 new cases on Sunday, its second highest tally since late March, despite falling numbers of people being tested per day. The positivity rate, which has almost doubled in the last 10 days, jumped to 5.2%. More local authorities in different parts of Spain are tightening restrictions: Officials in Navarra said they plan to reduce capacity to 30% in restaurants and bars, which must now close by 2200 local time, and limit social gatherings to no more than six people, according to El Mundo. Though unlike in Madrid, the Navarra government said it won’t forbid people from leaving the region. France reported just 16,101 new cases Sunday after reporting a staggering 26k+ on Saturday. The number was the lowest in five days. Ontario’s new cases declined to 649 cases Saturday from 809 on Friday and a record 939 registered a day earlier, according to the public health agency. NY Gov Andrew Cuomo said Sunday the state is doing "very well" overall; it has a 0.84% positive test rate when excluding the hot spots. The rate in the state's hot spots where COVID-19 is elevated is 5.7%, on average, he said during a phone briefing with reporters.
California kept prison factories open. Inmates worked for pennies an hour as COVID-19 spread - LA Times - While much of California shut down this spring, Robbie Hall stitched masks for 12 hours a day in a sewing factory at a women’s prison in Chino. For several weeks, Hall and other women said, they churned out masks by the thousands but were forbidden from wearing them. The incarcerated seamstresses at the California Institution for Women grew increasingly worried: The fabric they used came from the nearby men’s prison, where an outbreak ended up killing 23 inmates. And their boss regularly visited both institutions. “Are we safe with her going over there and coming back here?” Hall remembered asking her co-workers as they sewed. Then it happened. In early May, COVID-19 broke out in the sewing factory, sickening at least four incarcerated workers, including Hall. She spent weeks in the hospital struggling to breathe. California’s prison system has taken drastic measures to combat the coronavirus, halting rehab programs, religious services and educational classes. But correctional authorities kept one type of operation running through much of the last six months: prison factories. Hall was one of thousands of incarcerated workers who stayed on the job in high-risk positions during the pandemic, making wages that ranged from 8 cents to $1 an hour. They cooked the food. They walked from cell to cell delivering meals. They cleaned everything from communal showers to COVID-19 units in prison hospitals. And they labored in prison factories making products, such as masks, hand sanitizer and furniture, that were sold to state agencies for millions of dollars. It was “like a slave factory. The more you give them, the more they want.” Amid the drive for production, factories continued to operate even as infections increased inside prison walls, according to interviews with more than 30 inmates at the women’s prison in Chino and at Avenal State Prison for men, including some who became infected with the coronavirus. The factories brought together inmates who were housed in different units, heightening the risk of spreading the virus to other areas inside the prisons, The Times found. Factory staff, they said, warned that workers would lose their jobs — their only source of income — if they missed a day. Some said they were threatened with discipline that could jeopardize their chances for release from prison if they refused to work because of COVID-19 fears. At the Chino prison, workers said, supervisors kept raising the daily quotas, from 2,000 to 3,000 to 3,500 masks. Seven days a week, the women cranked out masks until their bodies ached, and all they could do at night was collapse asleep in their cells. It was “like a slave factory,” Hall said. “The more you give them, the more they want.”
Coronavirus in Ohio: Buckeye State hits grim milestone of 5,000 deaths from COVID-19 - Hitting a grim pandemic milestone, Ohio surpassed 5,000 deaths from the new coronavirus, a pathogen that emerged in humans only late last year and now is a leading killer in the Buckeye State and the nation. The six deaths announced Monday afternoon pushed the state's death toll to 5,005.Public health experts also have cautioned that any count of the coronavirus dead will be lower than the actual number of fatalities as it's likely people have died with the virus but were not tested for it or treated for COVID-19, the illness that develops from infection of the coronavirus. Here's what the toll of 5,005 dead Ohioans means. Ohio ranks 13th in the country in COVID-19 deaths. The leaders: New York, Texas, California, New Jersey, Texas and Florida. Ohio ranks 25th in deaths for every 100,000 people: COVID-19 had killed 1 of every 2,335 Ohioans as of Oct. 11. The leaders in the death rate: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Louisiana. The 5,005 Ohio deaths from COVID-19 so far is more than the combined total of Ohio's military service deaths in the Vietnam War, 2,997, and the Korean War, 1,777. The 5,005 Ohio deaths so far now make COVID-19 at least the seventh-leading cause of death in the state following heart disease, cancer, accidents, lung disease, stroke and Alzheimer’s disease. The 5,005 Ohio deaths so far from COVID-19 are fewer than the average annual Ohio deaths from lung cancer, about 7,200, but more than the annual average deaths for colorectal cancer, 2,234, and breast cancer, 1,755, combined. The Ohio Department of Health does not count adult deaths from flu. But the national estimate for the 2019-2020 flu season was between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University online counter reports that as of Oct. 12, the new coronavirus has caused the deaths of more than 210,000 Americans. The 5,005 death so far is roughly the populations of Munroe Falls, a bedroom community in Summit County of less than three square miles, 5,095; the Clermont County town of Amelia, 5,061; and St. Clairsville in Belmont County, 4,934. Eighty-four of Ohio's 88 counties have experienced a death from COVID-19. The only counties without any deaths are Morgan, Noble, Paulding and Pike. The top five Ohio counties in reporting deaths:
- Cuyahoga, 667
- Franklin, 635
- Lucas, 370
- Hamilton, 337
- Mahoning, 282
Wisconsin breaks single-day records for COVID-19 deaths, cases - Wisconsin on Tuesday reached a new state record for the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in a single day with 3,279 reported infections, according to the state’s department of health. Tuesday’s numbers surpass Wisconsin’s previous single-day record increase of 3,132 cases on Oct. 8. There were also 34 new deaths on Tuesday, hitting a record for the state's largest single-day increase in deaths, up from its previous high of 27 on Sept. 30. The health department has now recorded a total of 155,471 total confirmed infections since COVID-19 first hit the state, with 1,508 people dead as a result of the virus. As of Tuesday, 8,601 people in Wisconsin had been hospitalized as a result of COVID-19, with 147 new hospitalizations reported on Tuesday. The rising number of infections in the Midwestern state has led Gov. Tony Evers (D) to reimpose restrictions on businesses and other activities, leading to pushback from Wisconsin Republicans. On Monday, a Wisconsin judge ruled in favor of Evers continuing enforcement of the state’s mandatory mask mandate after the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty, backed by the state's GOP-controlled legislature, argued that the governor overstepped his executive authority by issuing multiple emergency orders to slow the COVID-19 pandemic. Rick Esenberg, the group's president, said they would appeal the decision after it was announced Monday, calling the issue a "critical constitutional matter." Evers had implemented a 60-day public health emergency in March and renewed the order in July after the legislature did not extend it. The July order required all residents to wear a mask when indoors in public. An order last month extended the mandate to Nov. 21 amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in the state and implemented a $200 fine for those who do not comply.
Trump Tests Negative; More Shutdowns in Europe: Virus Update - President Donald Trump has tested negative for Covid-19 on consecutive days, a week after being released from the hospital for treatment of the disease, White House doctor Sean Conley said. “This comprehensive data, in concert with the CDC’s guidelines for removal of transmission-based precautions, have informed our medical team’s assessment that the President is not infectious to others,” Conley said in a memo. The proportion of Americans dying from coronavirus infections is the highest in the developed world, according to a study released Monday. . The pathogen continued its unrelenting spread, with resurgences across Europe spurring containment efforts. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnsontightened restrictions, including closing pubs in hot spots, while the Czech Republic shut schools, restaurants and bars through early November. China recorded its biggest cluster in months, Iran posted record numbers of virus-related deaths and India’s cases climbed past 7 million. AstraZeneca Plc said an antibody medicine is advancing into the last stage of clinical tests. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: cases pass 37.6 million; deaths top 1.07 million
- U.S. Hot Spots: Covid-19 soars in red states as Trump returns to trail
- Top U.K. medic warns hot spot curbs aren’t enough to stop virus
- The coronavirus may remain infectious for weeks on banknotes
- Fauci says he was taken out of context in Trump campaign ad
- Coronavirus has exposed global leadership crisis: survey
Thirteen States Set Seven-Day Record for New Coronavirus Cases - Thirteen states reported Sunday that they had broken their previous seven-day coronavirus case records. The states that beat their own records for the most new cases in the seven-day period ending Sunday evening are Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, according to a USA Today analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. Many of those states are now seeing more than 25 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people. In Oklahoma, there have been an average of 1,172 new cases per day over the past week, a jump of 13 percent from the average two weeks ago. Wisconsin has experienced a particularly steep spike with an average of 2,696 new cases per day, 20 percent higher than the average new cases the state logged two weeks earlier. While metropolitan areas were the first to become hotspots for the coronavirus, midwestern states that fared better during the initial wave of the virus have seen their cases spike in recent months. Meanwhile, a 25-year-old man from Nevada became the first known American to be infected a second time with the coronavirus, raising concerns about immunity in those who have already had the virus. Several different strains of the coronavirus exist in the U.S. Trump administration officials have expressed confidence that a coronavirus vaccine will be available to the public by the end of the year. So far, four drugmakers have vaccine trials that have reached late-stage testing under the administration’s coronavirus vaccine program, Operation Warp Speed. In June, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor for the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, said that he is “cautiously optimistic” that a vaccine for the coronavirus will be available to the American public by the end of the year or early 2021. The U.S. has seen more than 7.7 million cases and 215,000 deaths from the coronavirus. Worldwide, more than 37.6 million people have contracted the virus, and more than 1 million have died after being infected.
October 13 COVID-19 Test Results - The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 840,142 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 46,647 positive tests. Over 8,600 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.5% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the July high. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. Everyone needs to be vigilant or we might see record high cases this Fall and Winter.
Coronavirus dashboard for October 14: winter is coming -- Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805*Average cases last 7 days: 51,038
Total US deaths: 215,887
Average deaths last 7 days: 714
*Actual cases probably more like 14 million, or over 4% of the US population
Today let’s take a look at the most recent upsurge in COVID not just in the US, but in the entire West. Here is the 7 day average of new cases per capita in the US, Canada, and the 5 most populous countries in Europe: Every single country, even Germany, is experiencing an upsurge. France, Spain, and the UK are having an even worse outbreak than the US. Here are deaths per capita. Note that this graph only shows the past 12 weeks. Early on the US, UK, Spain and Italy all had daily deaths on the order of 14 to 18 per capita, dwarfing everything since: We know that these will follow new cases with a 2 to 4 week lag. Spain already exceeds the US. France and the UK are following behind. All things considered, Canada and Germany are still doing quite well. But the increase in cases there certainly points to how hard it is to keep this virus contained. Within the US, here is the spaghetti chart of cases in all 50 States plus DC and the territories: Note that the Dakotas and Montana now have worse outbreaks than even NY did in April. Here are deaths: In April, NY had deaths of about 50 per capita every day, so even North Dakota, at 14 per day, while the worst since then - even surpassing Arizona’s summer spike - is nowhere near that bad - yet. Here are the bottom 10 jurisdictions for infections: Only Maine and Vermont among the 50 States still have the pandemic controlled. Finally, here are the bottom 10 for deaths: Again, only Maine and Vermont have still fully contained the virus. And winter is coming.
COVID-19 trouble for coal miners black lung disease - Appalachian miners who experience the debilitating, terminal condition known as black lung disease have to fight to get the care and government support they need, even in the best of times. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic is making life even harder. “You gotta wear a mask, and with your breathing problems and stuff, it’s hard to walk around and breathe through the mask. It's like sucking in hot air,” says Jerry Coleman, who worked as a coal miner for 37 years, mostly underground near Cabin Creek, West Virginia. “But I don’t have no choice. With the condition of my lungs, I can’t take a chance.” The lungs of someone with PMF are permanently and irreversibly scarred and the lungs gradually deteriorate until the person can no longer breathe. Coleman has complicated black lung disease, also known as progressive massive fibrosis, which is incurable. The lungs of someone with PMF are permanently and irreversibly scarred and the lungs gradually deteriorate until the person can no longer breathe. COVID-19 is classified as a respiratory virus. It can affect and even be deadly to the healthiest of people, but the most vulnerable are those with high-risk conditions, such as lung disease and old age — common characteristics of much of West Virginia’s former coal miner population. “Each different lung disease kind of takes away some of your lung function,” says Carl Werntz, an occupational medical specialist who gives black lung exams, a crucial step to apply for federal black lung benefits. “If you have black lung, that’s going to take away some lung function. So that person, if they get COVID [-19] and it bothers their lungs, they’re going to run out of usable lung much faster than somebody who starts out with healthy lungs.” Since the pandemic began, Werntz says, black lung exams were put on hold at the clinic in Cabin Creek where he works. Exams slowly resumed in July, but at half capacity. Typically, he sees six to eight patients a day, but with new COVID-19 protocols, Werntz says he sees three to four — creating a backlog of patients waiting for their black lung exam. “The longer you wait to do the testing to show that they really have the disease, the longer it is until they can get the benefits, including, potentially, medical care if they don’t have some other way to pay for their breathing care,” Werntz explains.
Coronavirus hospitalizations in New York state are up 97% since September 1, with Gov. Cuomo largely blaming virus hotspots -New York state is experiencing a dramatic rise in coronavirus hospitalizations, which are up 97% from September 1. On Sunday, 878 people in the state were reported as being currently hospitalized, compared to 445 on September 1, according to state data. The 97% increase first reported by Syracuse.com.The number of patients in intensive care is also up by 58% since September 1. The state recorded 185 people in intensive care units on Sunday, compared to 117 on September 1.The seven-day rolling average of hospital beds available across the reason remain at 25%, and average share of ICU beds across the region at 36%, state data said.The number of coronavirus deaths in New York remain low, however, with the state saying it had recorded 12 new deaths on Sunday. For comparison, statewide deaths reached a high of 799 at the virus' peak in the region in April.The rise in hospitalizations is no doubt a concern for New Yorkers who weathered what was, at one point, the largest outbreak in the US.But Gov. Andrew Cuomo sought to ease some of those concerns in aMonday conference call with reporters, blaming the hospitalizations on a select number of hotspots in the state. The governor blamed the increase in hospitalizations on coronavirus clusters throughout the state that public-health officials are monitoring.
South Dakota governor blames surge in COVID-19 cases on more testing --South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) this week attributed the state's surge in COVID-19 cases to increased testing, saying, "That's expected.""We have triple the amount of testing that we are doing in the state of South Dakota, which is why we're seeing elevated positive cases," Noem said, according to The Associated Press. "That's normal, that's natural, that's expected." Data from the South Dakota Department of Health initially showed that as of Tuesday there were no open general-care hospital beds in the southeastern portion of the state, which includes the two largest hospitals.The state agency later said, citing a data reporting error, that 23 percent of general-care hospital beds were available in medical facilities in the southeastern part of the state. “As the dashboard went live at noon on Tuesday, we identified two issues which we worked quickly to resolve," the agency said in a statement regarding the error. Hospitals in Sioux Falls have about 41 percent of their intensive care units (ICU) available. Noem did not explain how an increase in hospitalizations would correlate to an increase in testing, the AP reported. The New York Times reported Wednesday North Dakota and South Dakota have the most massive outbreaks per capita in the country.The percentage of tests coming back positive in South Dakota has averaged to nearly 24 percent in the last seven days, according to Johns Hopkins University, an indication that there is a growing community spread. The World Health Organization (WHO) indicates that a test positivity rate of 5 percent or lower is a sign COVID-19 is well-controlled in an area.
Wisconsin Covid-19 Trends - Menzie Chinn - This graph is for those who believe reports of negative outcomes Wisconsin are “fake news”. Figure 1: Wisconsin current Covid-19 hospitalizations (blue, left log scale), fatalities as of date reported (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/14/2020. From Wisconsin State Journal (10/13/2020): Citing inaction by the state Legislature, a St. Croix County judge on Monday rejected a request by a conservative legal group for a temporary injunction against Gov. Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate.…The GOP-led Legislature has met once since the pandemic began, in April, to take up legislation in response to COVID-19. Lawmakers and Evers ultimately signed what officials on both sides of the aisle described as “imperfect” legislation.The package aimed to complement federal aid allocated to the state, included additional Medicaid funding, allowed for increased unemployment benefits from the federal government and waived a one-week waiting period for benefits until February. The bill also allowed the state budget committee to spend up to $75 million during the public health emergency on coronavirus-related needs, though the committee has not exercised that authority.Vos and Fitzgerald did not respond to requests for comment on Monday.…Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, said he is opposed to the governor’s mask mandate.
October 16 COVID-19 Test Results - The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,046,412 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 68,124 positive tests. Almost 11,300 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.5% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategyto see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the July high.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. Everyone needs to be vigilant or we might see record high cases before the end of October.
The Latest: New Mexico sets another one-day COVID-19 record -- New Mexico health officials on Friday confirmed the state set another single-day record with 819 COVID-19 cases, bringing the statewide total to 35,770 since the pandemic began. New rules to limit gatherings to five people or less, reduce hotel capacities and impose a 10 p.m. closing time for bars and some restaurants also took effect Friday after successive days of record-breaking daily infection rates. The previous record of 672 on Thursday already had eclipsed records set in recent days. The state on Friday also reported six additional deaths related to the pandemic, bringing that total to 928. At the University of New Mexico, eight football players and one assistant coach have tested positive for the coronavirus and high positivity rates in the county where the school is located have forced the postponement of practice. University athletic director Eddie Nuñez said if the team is unable to practice for the next week, they will not be able to safely play their first scheduled game on Oct. 24 against Colorado State.
COVID-19 surge prompts warnings that anticipated 'third wave' is now here - COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are increasing again with no sign of stopping, sparking fears that the fall and winter wave experts had warned about all year is already here. Over the past week, according to The New York Times COVID-19 tracker, the U.S. has confirmed an average of 54,000 new cases per day, a 25 percent increase compared to two weeks ago. The surge cannot solely be explained by an increase in testing. Nineteen states, including North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas and Indiana, are seeing record-high case numbers in their areas, according to the tracker. States that have seemingly gained control of the pandemic in recent months, such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and others, are also seeing increases. “We’ve been talking about the fall surge for a long time now. I think that is the beginning of that reality,” Scott Gottlieb, Trump’s former Food and Drug commissioner, told CNBC on Friday. Gottlieb added that Europe, which is seeing a daily average of 100,000 new COVID-19 cases — higher than at any other time during the pandemic — is probably about two or three weeks ahead of the U.S. “I think we’re in for a difficult fall and winter,” Gottlieb said. Hospitalizations are also beginning to increase, with Wisconsin building a field hospital on the state park fairground. Deaths remain flat at about 700 per day in the U.S., but that number typically lags behind hospitalizations, which lag behind case increases, meaning the U.S. could see more fatalities reported in the coming weeks. The silver lining, Gottlieb said, is the death rate will likely be “substantially less” than it was in the spring and summer outbreaks because of improved therapies and techniques that have saved people’s lives. Experts generally say there have been two “surges” of COVID-19 in the U.S. The first surge hit the northeast in the spring, and the second hit the south over the summer, peaking at about 73,000 cases per day in July — the highest levels so far recorded in the pandemic in the U.S. Afterward, new cases steadily dropped, before beginning a climb upwards in September. Now the U.S. is poised to surpass the previous daily high in new cases, experts say. … We're seeing [cases] go up and in Europe and in many of those places, cases really did get down fairly low numbers first and now they're skyrocketing again in many places. We're seeing it in the US, and we're seeing in other places as well and so we're pretty much there and I think we have a long winter ahead.”
Covid Cases Extend ‘Troubling’ Surge, Signaling More Deaths - The number of daily Covid-19 cases is continuing its steady climb as temperatures begin to dip across the U.S., students return to classrooms and more people stay indoors where the virus spreads easily. While far fewer people are ending up hospitalized with the illness than during the pandemic’s surge in March and April, many more deaths are expected to be added to almost 218,000 already reported nationally as cases spike, experts said.“If you take a look from 30,000 feet, most states have rising case numbers,” with no downward trends to be seen, said William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. “That is troubling as winter approaches.”Nationally, seven-day moving case averages have climbed to their highest in two months, while the number of currently hospitalized Covid-19 patients was the most since Aug. 27, according to Johns Hopkins University and Covid Tracking Project data.The seven-day average of deaths due to Covid-19 is still at about a third of peak levels in April, but a decline that took place over recent weeks appears to have stopped. Reported deaths often lag behind other numbers by several weeks, said Schaffner, so those numbers will likely follow the rising number of cases and hospitalizations. “All of us anticipate Covid is going to increase this winter,” he said.Hopes that warm summer weather might tamp down spread were frustrated by outbreaks in Sun Belt states. Since then, there’s been a surge of cases in the Upper Midwest and on college campuses across the country. The highest case rates per capita in the past seven days have been in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin and Utah. South Dakota leads the nation in Covid-19 hospitalizations per capita.Those trends, and similar increases across Europe, are cause for alarm, said New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio. “It’s absolutely troubling to see how far these places are falling backwards,” he said Friday in an appearance on WNYC radio. “We can’t allow that to happen here.”While the initial surge of the virus hit densely populated urban areas, it’s now overwhelming rural regions, suburbs and small cities. Based on the seven-day rolling average of new cases, New Mexico, Missouri, South Dakota, Michigan and Illinois have seen the biggest increases in the past week, by percentage.
U.S. reports highest number of new coronavirus case since late July as total climbs above 8 million - The United States reported more than 69,000 new coronavirus cases on Friday, the highest daily count the nation has reported since late July. The U.S. has now reported more than 8 million Covid-19 cases and at least 218,600 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The surge in coronavirus cases comes as infectious disease experts warn the U.S. could face a "substantial third wave" of infections that will be further complicated this winter by the spread of seasonal influenza, which causes many similar symptoms to that of the coronavirus. As colder temperatures arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, more people will spend time indoors and likely fail to follow public health guidance, which creates a greater risk for the cornoavirus' spread compared with outdoor activities, Dr. William Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said. The U.S. is averaging roughly 55,000 new coronavirus cases every day, based on a weekly average to smooth out the reporting, a more than 16% increase compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. New cases were growing by 5% or more in 38 states as the number of infections in the Midwest continues to surge. "We need to pay more attention to this. We seem to forget that we're making progress, we're doing better, and then we kind of let go and we go back again," Dr. Carlos del Rio, a professor at the Emory University School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases, told CNBC on Friday. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, has warned for weeks that the daily number of new cases has remained "unacceptably high" heading into the end of the year. However, it's not too late to "vigorously apply" recommended public health measures, such as wearing a mask and maintaining a physical distance from others, Fauci told Johns Hopkins University on Thursday. When the U.S. descended from its first peak in April, the number of new coronavirus cases "got stuck" around 20,000 per day, Fauci said. Ideally, the U.S. would've reported less than 10,000 cases every day, he said. Then cases resurged. The number of daily new Covid-19 cases swelled to a high of nearly 70,000 cases a day before subsiding once again. However, new cases have since hovered between 40,000 to 50,000 cases a day. "You can't enter into the cool months of the fall and the cold months of the winter with a high community infection baseline," Fauci said. He added that the positivity rate, or the percentage of tests that are positive, is "going in the wrong direction" in more than 30 states.
U.S. Spike Pushes Cases to Most Since July: Virus Update - U.S. coronavirus cases increased by the most since late July, underscoring rising infections in most parts of the country less than three weeks before the election.Italy is considering the tightest restrictions since its spring lockdown ended as new curbs come into effect in Paris and London. The nation broke another record for daily cases amid the continuing surge of infections across Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to Germans to stay home and meet with fewer people whether inside or outside. Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases exceed 39 million; deaths top 1.1 million
- Europe cracks down with curbs in London and Paris
- Dr. Reddy’s and Russia to start Sputnik vaccine test
- Vaccine trial ailments raise questions about method
- Who’s succeeding against the coronavirus and why: QuickTake
- Covid surge puts Europe’s restaurant revival in peril
Italy reported 10,925 new coronavirus cases Saturday, the most in one day since the outbreak began; 47 people died compared with 55 Friday.The number of patients in intensive care beds rose by 67 to 705. Italy had over 4,000 people in intensive care units at the peak of the outbreak in April. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government may approve new restrictions on public life as early Saturday evening, according to government officials, who asked not to be named in line with their policy. U.S. cases increased by 69,276, the fourth consecutive day of rising numbers and the most since July 29, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg.The number, which reflects Friday data, is 9% higher than the previous day’s, underscoring rising Covid-19 cases in most parts of the country less than three weeks before the election.
As globe gallops into vaccine trials, insurers remain unfazed (Reuters) - The world is racing towards a vaccine in record time, stirring public concerns about safety to the extent that nine leading developers have felt compelled to issue a pledge to uphold scientific standards and testing rigour. Yet, while more than 40 experimental COVID-19 vaccines are being tested on humans, the insurance companies with decades of experience in assessing the risks of clinical trials don’t see anything to be unduly concerned about. Executives at insurer Allianz and brokers Gallagher and Marsh, among the leading players in clinical trials insurance, told Reuters that premiums had only marginally increased so far in the current pandemic. They argued there was little structural difference to trials carried out in the past, despite drugmakers around the world competing to shatter the fastest time in history for developing a vaccine, which stands at around four years. “Rates have been relatively stable. Even this year we have so far seen only moderate price increases on average, with higher price jumps for particularly exposed COVID-19 trials,” said Mark Piazzi, senior underwriter liability at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS). This was echoed by David Briggs, managing director, life sciences practice at Gallagher, who said every trial was rated on its methods and the kinds of patients involved. A Gallagher said premiums in Britain, for example, started at about 5,000 pounds ($6,500) per trial. Total claims limits in policies were typically set at roughly $6-12 million, depending on the country’s rules, according to several insurance companies interviewed by Reuters. However part of the reason why premiums have not risen as sharply as some people might have expected is that claims from trial are generally uncommon, according to executives. This is because patients have often signed so-called informed consent agreements, they said.
Lesson not learned: Europe unprepared as 2nd virus wave hits | ABC27 --Europe’s second wave of coronavirus infections has struck well before flu season even started, reports Nicole Winfield. Intensive care wards are filling up again and bars are shutting down.And authorities say a widespread case of “COVID-fatigue" is making matters worse.Spain declared a state of emergency for Madrid amid increasing tensions between local and national authorities. Germany offered up soldiers to help with contact tracing in newly flaring hotspots. Italy mandated masks outdoors and warned that for the first time since it became the European epicenter of the pandemic, hospitals are filling up again. The Czech Republic’s “Farewell Covid” party in June, when thousands of Prague residents dined outdoors at a 500-meter-long table across the Charles Bridge to celebrate their victory over the virus, seems painfully premature now that the country has the highest per-capita infection rate on the continent. Epidemiologists and residents alike are pointing the finger at governments for having failed to seize on the summertime lull in cases to prepare adequately for the expected autumn onslaught, with testing and ICU staffing still critically short. In Rome this week, people waited in line for 8-10 hours to get tested, while front-line medics from Kiev to Paris found themselves once again pulling long, short-staffed shifts in overcrowded wards. “When the state of alarm was abandoned, it was time to invest in prevention, but that hasn’t been done,” lamented Margarita del Val, viral immunology expert with the Severo Ochoa Molecular Biology Center, part of Spain’s top research body, CSIC. “We are in the fall wave without having resolved the summer wave,” she told an online forum this week. Tensions are rising in cities where new restrictions have been re-imposed, with hundreds of Romanian hospitality workers protesting this week after Bucharest once again shut down the capital’s indoor restaurants, theaters and dance venues. “We were closed for six months, the restaurants didn’t work and yet the number of cases still rose,” said Moaghin Marius Ciprian, owner of the popular Grivita Pub n Grill who took part in the protest. “I’m not a specialist but I’m not stupid either. But from my point of view it’s not us that have the responsibility for this pandemic.”
Spain First EU Member To Top 900k COVID-19 Cases; France Revives 'Health Emergency' Order, Imposes Curfews: Live Update - The French government has just revived its public health state of emergency, which will resume at midnight on Friday.The report comes ahead of an evening address by President Emmanuel Macron where he is expected to announce a "night confinement" from 9pm to 6am, according to media reports. The curfew will apply to towns and cities on the highest level of alert.The move comes as the number of people in hospital with coronavirus in France has risen to more than 9,100 for the first time since the end of June.Like much of Western Europe, cases in France have soared in recent weeks... ....and deaths have followed hospitalizations higher. The news follows a wave of tightenng restrictions in countries across Europe after the Continent reported more than 700,000 cases in a single week, its highest weekly tally yet. Macron has, as expected, announced new curfews for cities and towns facing the highest COVID-19 alert levels. Macron said that the curfews would last for at least 4 weeks. It will apply to Paris and its suburbs, as well as Marseille, Lyon, Lille, Saint-Etienne, Rouen, Toulouse, Grenoble and Montpellier. The president's speech comes after France reported 22,951 new cases on Wednesday, raising its total to 820,017.That's compared with 52,000 cases reported in the US yesterday. However, France's population is roughly one-fifth of the American population, meaning the per-capita rate of infection is much higher in France and Spain right now than in the US.Elsewhere in Europe, a partial lockdown announced by the Netherlands yesterday will come into force at 2200 local time. Earlier on Wednesday, Spain's restive Catalonia region said that bars and restaurants would close for 15 days beginning Thursday.The Czech Republic, which has the highest rate of infection in Europe with 581.3 cases per 100,000 people, has shut schools and bars. Meanwhile, Spain on Wednesday became the first EU nation to top 900,000 COVID-19 cases. The latest official figures released by the Spanish Health Ministry on Wednesday showed the countrywide total is now 908,056, an increase of 11,979 against the figure released on Tuesday. Although, the ministry claims that only 5,104 of these infections occurred in the past 24 hours; figures released yesterday excluded an update from Andalusia for ‘technical reasons’.
Tripling of new coronavirus infections in Germany in only one month -- On Sunday, the youngest COVID-19 victim in the city of Offenbach died age 51. Offenbach is currently the coronavirus hotspot in the federal state of Hesse. The sad death of a woman who could have lived for several more decades is a further indictment of a government policy whose unanimous credo is: the economy cannot tolerate a new lockdown. According to this credo, everything is currently being done at the federal, state and local level to keep the economy running even as infections of the deadly coronavirus rapidly rise. This exposes not only production, care, and transport workers, but also students, teachers, educators and their families, as well as all public transport workers, to mortal danger.At the same time, the rising number of cases—the inevitable result of this policy—is now being used to deploy the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) at home. At the crisis summit in the Chancellor’s Office, Chancellor Angela Merkel decisively spoke out in favour of deploying the Bundeswehr in large cities to relieve the burden on health authorities. The self-created crisis thus serves as a pretext to accustom the population to the deployment of the military on Germany’s streets. The health authorities are being overloaded with cases. This, too, is a result of the policy of reopening the economy. During the lockdown, they had the aid of additional personnel from offices that had been shut down. Now, in many places, contact tracing can no longer be reliably carried out to identify and notify those who may have been exposed to the virus.
Coronavirus infections threaten Germany’s hospitals with overload - Experts warn that hospitals in Germany are reaching their limits of capacity due to the dramatic increase in coronavirus infections. While protective measures against the virus have been almost completely dismantled in recent months, the government has done nothing to prepare hospitals for the foreseeable increase in severe cases. It was necessary to prepare for a wave of seriously ill patients, explained Susanne Herold, head of the Infectiology Department at Giessen University Hospital, at a joint press conference with Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (Christian Democratic Union, CDU). This would push hospitals to the limits of their capacity, especially in big cities, she added. On October 8, 487 COVID-19 patients were in intensive care in Germany, 237 of them requiring ventilation. One month earlier, on September 8, there were 230 cases, of which 130 were ventilated—an increase of 112 percent. According to Herold, a further significant increase and associated bottlenecks can be expected in the coming weeks. On Saturday alone, the number of new infections rose by 4,721, exceeding 4,000 for the third day in a row. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) had announced at the end of September that she expected 19,200 new infections per day by Christmas. The rising number of infections inevitably leads to an increasing number of hospital admissions. Social Democratic Party (SPD) health expert Karl Lauterbach expects a death rate of at least 1 percent in the future—i.e., hundreds of deaths per day.
Covid deaths in Europe, US exceed official tallies - Deaths directly or indirectly attributable to the first wave of Covid-19 infections across 21 wealthy nations earlier this year exceeded government tallies by 20 percent on average, according to a study published Wednesday. Looking at the period from mid-February through May 2020, researchers reported 206,000 more deaths than would have been expected without the pandemic. But only 167,148 were officially traced to the coronavirus that has swept the globe since the start of the year, infecting tens of millions. Many of the roughly 40,000 unaccounted-for deaths were due to Covid-19 but not listed as such, especially early in the pandemic when overwhelmed hospitals in some nations were unable to systematically test patients. Others could have resulted from disruptions in health care, such as missed treatments for cancer or lack of access to emergency services following a heart attack or accident. "The impacts of the pandemic on deaths goes beyond infection alone because it affects death in 'indirect' ways," senior author Majid Ezzati, a professor of global environmental health at Imperial College London, told AFP. The excess mortality from all causes for the 15-week period varied sharply across nations examined. It was highest in Spain and England and Wales, which each saw 100 "extra" deaths per 100,000 people, about 37 percent above what would been expected absent the pandemic. England and Wales, Spain and Italy accounted for three-quarters of the total number of excess deaths, the study found. Belgium and Scotland were also hit hard. At the other end of the spectrum, countries that showed no detectable rise in deaths in the spring included Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland. The rest of the countries analysed -- Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Sweden -- fell somewhere in between. The 206,000 excess deaths were almost evenly divided between men and women, a finding at odds with death rates reported in hospitals, where a significantly higher proportion of victims were male.
The anti-lockdown crusade gains oxygen from this government's ineptitude -- If anyone still doubts that Brexit was our Trump moment, look at some of the same characters (Tory MPs, newspapers, even voters) who supported Brexit getting behind what has become an anti-lockdown crusade. I use the word crusade deliberately. Rather than religion it is ideology that drives most anti-lockdown proponents. That ideology is libertarian, although to borrow a phrase from Chris Dillow on mask phobia, this libertarianism is just solipsistic narcissism. What the crusade isn't, for most of the anti-lockdown brigade, is evidence led. That is not to say that some scientists may genuinely believe that lockdowns are never worthwhile. Science shouldn't be closed to heretical ideas, and there will always be scientists who put forward such ideas. Occasionally the heretical turns out to be true. So any defence of the need for lockdowns should be science based. Merely noting the correlation between Brexit and the anti-lockdown crusade, or the fact that an institute funded by the Koch brothers helped create the Barrington Declaration, is interesting politically but it is irrelevant to the science. The alternative proposed in the Barrington Declaration is herd immunity plus protection for the vulnerable. As Mark Reynolds from Wired notes, there is no mention of test and trace, or mask wearing, in the Declaration. This is because the authors want everyone except the vulnerable to catch the virus as soon as possible. On the vulnerable, everyone agrees that they should be protected, but the twist that herd immunity gives you is that if carers and others who meet the vulnerable are immune as a result of herd immunity they are not going to become infectious again and pass this on to the vulnerable. However the Declaration glosses over the rather critical problem in the interim before care workers have caught COVID. As I note below, without lockdowns it is likely to be at least 6 months before we reach herd immunity. That apart, their proposal for the vulnerable is identical to what the government should have been doing as part of its lockdown strategy. The other point they gloss over is that there is no neat dividing line between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable. The risk of death increases sharply with age, but it doesn’t start once you are retired. There is a significant risk from death if you are in your 50s and male, data from Spain suggests. Furthermore, we know very little about ‘long COVID’: those who are suffering from severe effects from COVID long after the virus has left.
UK’s local lockdown system in disarray as COVID-19 cases surge out of control - The Johnson government’s ineffectual three-tier localised Covid-19 intervention plan is falling apart as coronavirus cases rocket in Britain and ICU wards are already beginning to be overwhelmed. On Thursday, Labour Party Major of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said that he and the others leaders of the region would not agree to the area being placed in the “Very High Risk” category. Johnson responded Friday at a Downing Street press conference that the situation in Manchester was “grave”, with COVID-19 cases doubling in the last nine days and a high infection rate of 690 per 100,000 among 16–29 year olds. The number of COVID patients in Manchester ICU beds was already 40 percent over what it was at the height of the first wave. If Burnham and other leaders in Greater Manchester did not accept being moved into Tier 3, Johnson threatened that he would impose the measures, as "The national government must reserve the right to step in and do what is necessary.” To put further pressure on Burnham, et al, Johnson announced that local leaders in Lancashire, also in the North West, had agreed to go under Tier 3 restrictions. Earlier the government reported another 15,650 positive coronavirus infections across the UK and 136 deaths. But even this and the other high figures announced each day this week—with almost 20,000 cases on Wednesday—are far lower than reliable estimates. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that daily coronavirus cases in England alone have increased to around 27,900 between October 2 and October 8. Overall cases had risen from an estimated 224,400 to 336,500 in a week. The ONS said that estimated daily positive tests in England were increasing at a rate of almost 10,000 each week. Earlier this week the Cambridge University’s Medical Research Council (MRC) biostatistics unit announced, “Our current estimate of the number of infections occurring each day across England is 47,000.” The number infected could be as high as 74,900 per day. The MRC concluded, “We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 240 and 690 on 26 October.” As the Tier legislation was passed in parliament Tuesday, the government made clear that the Greater Manchester region, with a population of 3 million, could expect to be placed into the “Very High” Tier level imminently, with the adjacent Liverpool city region already under the restrictions. Tier Three means that pubs and bars must close, and household mixing bans are imposed.
Paris Under Curfew: Europe Reacts As Countries See Highest-Ever Coronavirus Numbers - Coronavirus restrictions are taking effect in the Netherlands, the U.K., the Czech Republic and other parts of Europe on Wednesday as nations try to reverse an alarming wave in new cases. The continent is now seeing more new coronavirus cases – an average of 100,000 daily — than at any other time during the pandemic. Bars, restaurants and schools are being shut down or sharply limited, and officials are working to bolster hospital capacity, to accommodate an expected influx of new COVID-19 patients. Numbers that showed signs of taking off in late August and September are now skyrocketing. Europe reported more than 700,000 new coronavirus cases last week – a surge representing a 36% weekly increase, as NPR's Reese Oxner recently reported. Europe's infection rate "has been increasing for 77 days," the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said in its most recent weekly report for the European Economic Area and the United Kingdom. Here, a sampling of the situation in Europe:
- In France, President Emmanuel Macron used a nationally televised interviewWednesday night to announce the start of nightly curfews in Paris and eight other densely populated areas in an effort to control the coronavirus in what are deemed "health emergency zones."
- Italy reported its largest one-day total of new cases Wednesday, with more than 7,300 – easily surpassing the terrible heights the country reached in March. The rise comes one day after Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree putting new limits on gatherings, sports and school activities. Bars and restaurants are still allowed to operate until midnight, but only if they offer table service.
- In Spain, the regional government of Catalonia is ordering all bars and restaurants to close their on-premises operations, saying they can only sell to-go items for the next 15 days. Shopping areas, theaters and gyms will have to operate at reduced capacity. It's the only way to avert an even deeper shutdown, officials say.
- The Czech Republic, hard hit by the new coronavirus wave, has closed schools as of Wednesday. Restaurants and bars are closed for everything except takeout orders – and they can only operate until 8 p.m., according to Radio Prague International.
- The Netherlands is enacting a partial lockdown because of a rise in new cases. The government declared on Tuesday, "The coronavirus has been given too much room to spread again." The restrictions close all food and drink establishments, except for carryout orders. No more than four people from different households can gather, indoors or outside.
Coronavirus live news: Russia reports record daily cases and deaths; Netherlands set for new restrictions - Global coronavirus cases will top the 40 million mark sometime this weekend, and the number of new cases is approaching 400,000 a day. The grim progression of the pandemic can be charted in these numbers: new cases first reached 100,000 a day on May 20; they hit 200,000 a day on July 1; 300,000 a day on September 4, and reached 398,609 on Wednesday, October 14. There are already more than 1.1 million deaths. The daily number of fatalities has also started turning upward with a seven-day moving average of 5,200 deaths. Two days running, the number of deaths has exceeded 6,000. The current projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation place estimates of global COVID-19 deaths at 1.9 million by January 1, 2021. Whereas during the summer, Brazil, India and the United States were at the center of the pandemic, with the turn to fall and colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of the world’s population lives, cases across Russia, Europe and North America have seen a dramatic upward shift, as predicted by modelers and epidemiologists. On Thursday, the United States, with 65,000 new cases of COVID-19, surpassed India for the first time in several weeks. Twenty-six states have posted more than 1,000 new cases. Wisconsin shattered its previous high with more than 3,700 new cases. Though the Midwest and rural communities face the brunt of the current surge, cases are trending upward in 44 states. Nearly 900 people died yesterday. Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, painted a bleak picture. “We are headed in the wrong direction, and that’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations. Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we see increased transmission in communities across the country.” Hospitalization across the country for COVID-19 stands at 37,308, a 30 percent rise since the last week of September.
- Russia reports record daily coronavirus cases and deaths. On Tuesday, the country’s coronavirus crisis centre said 13,868 new cases had been reported in the past 24 hours, pushing the overall number of infections to 1,326,178.
- Russia’s regulator has granted approval for a trial of its controversial Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine on people aged over 60. In August Russia approved the vaccine for use after less than two months of human testing, including a dose administered to one of Vladimir Putin’s daughters.
- Hospitals in Paris could have up to 90% of intensive care beds packed with Covid-19 patients as soon as next week. The warning came from the healthcare system’s chief as France braces for new measures to slow a surge in cases.
- Dutch bars and restaurants ordered to close to stem surge in coronavirus cases. The Dutch government announced the new round of measures on Tuesday as the number of cases in this country surged in recent weeks to a daily record of nearly 7,400.
- Italy announces new restrictions. Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte on Tuesday imposed new restrictions on gatherings, restaurants, sports and school activities in an attempt to slow a surge in novel coronavirus infections.
- Ireland’s government offered more support on Tuesday to those hit hardest by some of Europe’s toughest Covid-19 restrictions. The budget stimulus package was described as “unprecedented in the history of the state” by Reuters.
- The Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki tested negative for Covid-19. Morawiecki went into quarantine after he had contact on Friday with a person who has tested positive. A government spokesman said the prime minister had no coronavirus symptoms and continued to fulfil his duties.
- UK reports 143 new deaths from Covid-19, highest daily figure since June. This brings the UK death total to 43,018. There had been a further 17,234 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK on Tuesday. It brings the total number of cases in the UK to 634,920.
- Keir Starmer called on the UK government to impose a national circuit breaker lockdown of at least two weeks in England as the death toll from Covid-19 soared to a four-month high. In a significant escalation, the Labour leader said the prime ministerBoris Johnson had “lost control of the virus” and must take urgent action to impose a near-total shutdown across the country over the October half-term. Full story here.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has tested positive for coronavirus. The 35-year-old is said to be “doing well, without symptoms, and in isolation”, with no further positive tests reported in the squad before Portugal’s Nations League match against Sweden on Wednesday.
Coronavirus: France reports more than 30,000 new infections - France has reported a large jump in new Covid-19 cases ahead of a night-time curfew being imposed on Paris and eight other cities on Saturday. A further 30,621 infections were confirmed on Thursday, up from 22,591 the day before. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that tough restrictions are "absolutely necessary" to save lives. Millions in Europe have been told they must live under strict new measures as governments battle a second wave. From Saturday, socialising indoors will be banned in London, as the UK capital and other areas of England will be put under a higher Covid alert. As well as France, Italy, Poland and Germany all recorded their largest daily rise in new cases on Thursday since mass testing began. Russia recorded its highest number of daily fatalities since the start of the epidemic with 286 people reported to have died from the virus. The WHO urged European governments "to step up" and take action as the continent passed a threshold of 1,000 deaths reported daily. New restrictions were announced on Wednesday by President Emmanuel Macron to combat the soaring infection rate across France. Residents of Paris, its suburbs and eight other cities including Marseille and Lyon will not be able to leave their homes without "valid" reason between 21:00 and 06:00 from Saturday for at least four weeks. Mr Macron said he aimed to reduce the daily rise in cases to 3,000. Why are infections rising again in US? Prime Minister Jean Castex said police would be deployed to enforce the curfew, but people will still be allowed to leave for work or to visit hospital or the pharmacy. On Thursday, French police raided the homes of senior government and health officials as part of an investigation into their handling of the pandemic. The government has faced criticism over shortages of equipment and slow response times.
Dutch Woman Dies After Being Reinfected With COVID-19, Global Cases See Biggest Weekly Jump Yet: Live Updates - The FT reported, citing a scientific paper published in the journal Clinical Infectious Disease, that an 89-year-old Dutch woman has become the first person reinfected with COVID-19 to succumb to the virus. According to the paper, the patient first arrived at a hospital in the Netherlands complaining of fatigue. She tested positive, and was later discharged. But 59 days later, she returned to the hospital with even more serious conditions, and tested positive for COVID-19 again. She died shortly after.The news follows last night's exclusive WSJ report documenting the first case of a patient who was reinfected with COVID-19 in the US. We'll have more on that later. The report in the Lancet cited by WSJ also shows that the second bout of COVID-19 is often more severe in reinfected patients.Finally, after announcing a slate of new restrictions last week, the Italian government has on Tuesday set out the tighter restrictions on social gatherings, restaurants and school activities to stop the spread of the virus after the average number of daily cases doubled over the course of a week. Finally, the WHO confirmed yesterday that global COVID-19 cases set a new record last week. Though it has slowed somewhat since September, India's outbreak was one of the biggest contributors to this trend, along with Europe, the US and Brazil. The UAE has reported its highest daily COVID-19 infection tally, with 1,315 new cases in the tiny Middle Eastern nation, really a collection of principalities. Tuesday's numbers bring the UAE's ally to 108,608, with just 448 deaths since the start of the pandemic.Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki entered quarantine after exposure to someone who had tested positive for coronavirus, as the second wave of the pandemic rages in central and eastern Europe.The Netherlands just reported another 7,378 new cases, its latest daily record, the second daily record in a row, and 500 more from yesterday's number. The country also suffered another 35 new deaths. The record follows news that the first confirmed death from a patient reinfected with COVID-19 had been recorded in the Netherlands. Though the Netherlands' rate hasn't risen quite as quickly as Italy, which has seen daily case numbers double over the past week, the Dutch numbers are up more than 50% from the prior week as Europe's second wave explodes across the continent. Meanwhile, another 100+ new patients were admitted to Dutch hospitals, bringing the total actively receiving treatment to 1,410, more than 1,400 for the first time since May 14, according to government data. 277 of those patients were being treated in the ICU, with 25 of those newly arrived overnight.
Danish government orders death of a million minks due to COVID-19 outbreak - The Danish government has ordered mink farms to cull over 1 million animals due to reported outbreaks of coronavirus among the species, prized for its fur. The outbreak among the mink population was detected in late June after a COVID-19 patient was linked to a mink farm in North Jutland, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report. As of this month, mink on around 60 farms in North Jutland have tested positive for coronavirus, and an additional 46 farms are under suspicion, Mogens Jensen, the Danish minister of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, told CNN. "We have continuously launched initiatives to manage and contain the spread of infection," Jensen said in a statement. "In view of the recent large increase, we must unfortunately state that it has not been sufficient to prevent continued spread of infection among the North Jutland mink herds," he added. The order mandates that mink farms within five miles of a farm or herd that is confirmed or suspected to be infected with the coronavirus must be culled. "It is a difficult decision that the government has made, but we fully support it," said Tage Pedersen, chairman of the Danish Mink Breeders Association. In Utah, cases of COVID-19 have also been detected among mink farm populations, with state officials reporting that over 10,000 animals have died from the virus. While officials in Utah said, "research indicates there hasn't been a spread from mink to humans," state veterinarian Dean Taylor noted the mink suffered from respiratory issues, similar to human symptoms. The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration and the Danish Emergency Management Agency will handle the process of culling mink in Denmark.
COVID-19 outbreak exposes Sri Lankan government claims that pandemic is under control - Sri Lankan health authorities reported yesterday that the number of coronavirus patients had doubled in the week since October 4, climbing to a total of 4,702 and 13 deaths. All indications point to a surge of COVID-19 throughout the country, with infections reported in 22 of the country’s 24 districts. The latest figures puncture President Gotabhaya Rajapakse’s boasts that his administration, unlike governments in other countries, has controlled the virus. The increased number of infections in Sri Lanka has occurred as the number of cases globally exceeds 37 million and the death toll surpasses one million. The previous, relatively low number of COVID-19 infections in Sri Lanka is mainly the result of the government’s refusal to carry out systematic testing. Medical experts have demanded that there should be at least 5,000 tests per day. On October 4, a Brandix Fast Fashion worker from the company’s Minuwangoda plant tested COVID-19 positive at Gampaha Hospital. Management only allowed the female worker to enter the hospital after she insisted that she was sick and could not work without treatment. Health authorities began testing other workers at the plant, discovering that more than 1,000 out of 1,400 employed at the plant and their associates were infected. Some workers have been hospitalised and others sent to quarantine centres. Brandix is one of Sri Lanka’s largest apparel manufacturers, with factories in multiple countries. It employs about 50,000 workers at different plants across the country. The company produces apparel for US and European retail giants, including Gap, Victoria’s Secret and Marks & Spencer.
Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths pass 150,000 mark amid back-to-school campaign - Last Saturday, Brazil’s recorded COVID-19 deaths passed the 150,000 mark, seven months after the beginning of the pandemic in the country. The grim milestone was announced by the press consortium created in June by the largest Brazilian newspapers after the government of Brazil’s fascist President Jair Bolsonaro tried to censor data related to the pandemic as part of his government’s homicidal effort to reopen the economy.Brazil has now also recorded more than 5 million cases, ranking third in the world in number of coronavirus cases behind the US and India, and second in number of deaths, trailing only the US. The country also ranks third in deaths per million inhabitants, behind Peru and Belgium. However, four of Brazil’s 27 states have a higher mortality rate than Peru, with more than a thousand deaths per million people. Although in recent weeks Brazil has registered a drop in the number of cases and deaths after months on a plateau of more than a thousand deaths daily, the pandemic is still out of control in the country. Commenting on the Brazilian numbers on Monday, Michael Ryan, emergencies director at the World Health Organization, warned that the trend of fewer cases is occurring with “very, very high” numbers. Pointing to what is happening in Europe, he also warned: “the fact that the pandemic is in decline does not mean that it will not get worse again.” Showing his usual contempt for people’s lives, Bolsonaro said on Wednesday that the pandemic had been “exaggerated,” while he again attacked the limited isolation measures implemented by governors, which are now being withdrawn. In reality, the numbers of cases and deaths are grossly underestimated. Brazil has been one of the countries with the least testing in the world throughout the pandemic, with a test rate of less than one per thousand inhabitants, little more than Libya, a country devastated by a decade of war. Projections show that if isolation measures are abandoned, the country would have 3 million more people infected in 30 days. An estimate by the Health Intelligence Laboratory of the University of São Paulo’s School of Medicine also showed that Brazil’s real number of cases is over 18 million, and COVID-19 deaths, over 200,000.
Global surge in COVID-19 cases as governments abandon efforts to contain the pandemic Global coronavirus cases will top the 40 million mark sometime this weekend, and the number of new cases is approaching 400,000 a day. The grim progression of the pandemic -can be charted in these numbers: new cases first reached 100,000 a day on May 20; they hit 200,000 a day on July 1; 300,000 a day on September 4, and reached 398,609 on Wednesday, October 14. There are already more than 1.1 million deaths. The daily number of fatalities has also started turning upward with a seven-day moving average of 5,200 deaths. Two days running, the number of deaths has exceeded 6,000. The current projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation place estimates of global COVID-19 deaths at 1.9 million by January 1, 2021. Whereas during the summer, Brazil, India and the United States were at the center of the pandemic, with the turn to fall and colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of the world’s population lives, cases across Russia, Europe and North America have seen a dramatic upward shift, as predicted by modelers and epidemiologists. On Thursday, the United States, with 65,000 new cases of COVID-19, surpassed India for the first time in several weeks. Twenty-six states have posted more than 1,000 new cases. Wisconsin shattered its previous high with more than 3,700 new cases. Though the Midwest and rural communities face the brunt of the current surge, cases are trending upward in 44 states. Nearly 900 people died yesterday. Caitlin Rivers, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, painted a bleak picture. “We are headed in the wrong direction, and that’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations. Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we see increased transmission in communities across the country.” Hospitalization across the country for COVID-19 stands at 37,308, a 30 percent rise since the last week of September. The surge across Europe has been catastrophic, with the United Kingdom, France and Spain each having surpassed the United States on a per capita basis as Germany begins to see a similar steep climb. Some 35 percent of France’s outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in schools or universities. More than a third of UK outbreaks in September were in educational settings. The incidence rate of COVID-19 among children and youth since returning to school has been astronomical.
Michigan Officials Warn Of Another "Scary" Virus That People Should Worry About - While Michiganders focus on the COVID-19 issue as well as attempting to get their state’s economy back on track, Michigan public health officials are now warning of another potential breakout of a new virus, Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE). EEE is spread by mosquitoes and MI officials claim they are doing everything they can to stop the spread as COVID fatigue sets in with citizens across the country. One of the methods officials have devised is strikingly similar to what they are suggesting for COVID – i.e. urging residents to stay indoors after dark and protect themselves against mosquitoes when they are out. All this comes after a resident in Barry County was suspected of contracting EEE. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services announced the case last week. “This suspected EEE case in a Michigan resident shows this is an ongoing threat to the health and safety of Michiganders and calls for continued actions to prevent exposure, including aerial treatment,” Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, chief medical executive and chief deputy for health at MDHHS, said in a statement. “MDHHS continues to encourage local officials in the affected counties to consider postponing, rescheduling or cancelling outdoor activities occurring at or after dusk, particularly those involving children to reduce the potential for people to be bitten by mosquitoes.”22 horses located across ten counties have been confirmed to have EEE, a number that is allegedly twice that of the previous year. The state is now engaging in aerial spraying to reduce the number of mosquitoes. Nationwide, 5 cases of humans contracting EEE have been reported to the CDC – three in Massachusetts and two in Wisconsin. Generally speaking, there are only 5 to 9 cases of EEE in the US every year with 30% of those cases resulting in death. The incubation period of EEE is usually around 4 to ten days, and symptoms can be mild including fever, chills, aches, and general discomfort. Severe cases can involve swelling of the brain and meningitis.
There have been multiple sightings of a hairy, venomous caterpillar in Virginia - CNN - It's small, hairy and you don't want to get anywhere near it. It is considered to be one of the most venomous caterpillars in the US, and there have been multiple reports of the puss caterpillar appearing in "parks or near structures" in eastern Virginia. The Virginia Department of Forestry is warning residents to stay away from the caterpillar because it has venomous spines across its thick, furry coat. "There are little hollow hairs in that fluffy, hairy material," Theresa Dellinger, a diagnostician at the Insect Identification Lab at Virginia Tech, told CNN. "It's not going to reach out and bite you, but if someone brushes up against that hair, it'll release toxins that you'll have a reaction to." That reaction can include an itchy rash, vomiting, swollen glands and fever, according to the University of Michigan. It'll also put you in a world of pain. A Richmond, Virginia, resident described the feeling like a scorching-hot knife. A Florida mother said her teenage son began screaming when "stung" by one. The caterpillar isn't commonly found in the state. Sightings are more likely farther south, in states like Texas, or in midwestern states like Missouri, according to researchers. No one is entirely sure why there have been so many recent reports in Virginia.
European Top Court Upholds French Ban on Bee-Harming Pesticides - The European Court of Justice on Oct. 8 found that France did not violate EU rules when it banned certain chemicals considered harmful to bees.The legal row between the French Crop Protection Association and France goes back to 2018, when the government banned some pesticides belonging to the neonicotinoid group.The ban placed France at the forefront of a campaign against chemicals blamed for decimating crop-pollinating bees.With its ban on five neonicotinoids outdoors and in greenhouses, France went further than the European Union, which agreed to outlaw three in crop fields.Opponents of the ban have said that it prevents farmers from protecting their sugar beet crops, which have been decimated by an infestation of green aphids. Sugar beet farmers argue that neonicotinoid chemicals are the only solution to combating such infestations. The Crop Protection Association brought the case to court, arguing that the French decree was incompatible with an EU regulation on the family of chemicals. The French government has since rowed back on parts of the controversial ban following pressure by beetroot growers.However, on Thursday, the EU's top court ruled that France's initial ban had satisfactorily demonstrated the need to curb a "serious risk to human or animal health or to the environment."Last week, the pesticides were at the center of a legal battle between the French government and the left-wing and green opposition, which accuses President Emmanuel Macron of neglecting to fulfill his environmental commitments.On Oct. 6, the French National Assembly approved a proposal to give beetroot growers an exemption from the ban on the pesticides until July 2023.France is Europe's top producer of beets used to make sugar and the sector provides 46,000 jobs.Introduced in the mid-1990s, lab-synthesized neonicotinoids are based on the chemical structure of nicotine, and attack the central nervous system of insects.They were meant to be a less harmful substitute to older pesticides, and are now the most widely-used to treat flowering crops. However, in recent years, bees started dying off from "colony collapse disorder," a mysterious disease partly blamed on the use of such chemicals.Studies have since shown that neonicotinoids harm bee reproduction and foraging, while exposure also lowers their resistance to disease.
Avian Botulism Kills 40,000 Birds at National Wildlife Refuge - Normally Lower Klamath National Wildlife Refuge is a place where birds gather in abundance, feasting and fattening up as they continue their migration along the Pacific Flyway. Instead, I am sadly here to witness a massive outbreak of avian disease that is wiping out tens of thousands of birds. The Lower Klamath NWR is a “must see,” especially at the start of fall migration. Designated as an Important Bird Area by the National Audubon Society, the Lower Klamath NWR is one of a mosaic of refuges in the Klamath Basin, which together form an essential pinch point along the Pacific Flyway, causing waterbirds to congregate in huge numbers during migration. Birds coming south from Alaska stop to rest and refuel before continuing their journey south to estuaries along the coast, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys of California, and beyond as far as the tip of South America. These birds can’t complete this journey without places like Lower Klamath NWR along their route. This year though, instead of broad sheets of water, green wetland stands, clouds of mosquitos, and throngs of noisy waterbirds — what greets me is a dry, barren landscape baking in the hot summer sun. Throngs of birds cram together in the few pools of hot, stagnant water that remain. Different species and guilds gather in a motley collection of unlikely neighbors; American white pelicans waddle near elegant black-necked stilts and American avocets, rather than spreading out across the open water and mudflats. These are exactly the kinds of conditions where disease can spread rapidly.It is not surprising then, that a massive avian botulism outbreak is ravaging the birds of the Lower Klamath and some of the surrounding refuges. At last estimate, 40,000 birds have died in the last month due to botulism and thousands more are at an emergency “duck hospital” operated by staff from Bird Ally X, California Waterfowl Association, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.Avian botulism is a waterborne bacteria, Clostridium botulinum, that occurs naturally in many wetlands, but becomes activated when hot temperatures heat the water. Overcrowding caused by insufficient water supplies have created ideal conditions for the bacteria to rapidly spread through the birds in the refuge. Birds eat infected food sources, become paralyzed and die, and in turn transmit it to other birds in a vicious cycle that spreads quickly across the wetlands.Overcrowding of birds, combined with a lack of water supplies to maintain these wetlands and push clean water through these habitats, worsens the outbreak as water sits and concentrates. Making matters worse, some species of waterbirds are molting and will be unable to fly to better habitat for approximately a month..
New England’s Forests Are Sick. They Need More Tree Doctors. NYT --As climate change accelerates, the trees in the Eastern forests of the United States are increasingly vulnerable. For many arborists, the challenges facing trees are reshaping and expanding the nature of their work. Many said they are spending more time on tree removal than ever before — taking down dead or unhealthy trees, or trees damaged or felled by storms. “We are a heavily treed state,” said Kristina Bezanson, an arborist and a lecturer at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “We are having more tree problems that require lots of arborists, and there is a shortage of arborists.” Many New England towns are verdant, and the area is roughly 75 percent forest — forests that have generally grown back twice, after clearing by colonists for agriculture and after logging for timber in the early 1900s. To the untrained eye, it looks good: lots of green.Not to the trained eye. Bear LeVangie pointed to a fungus on a maple tree, a sign of decay. To spend time with tree experts is to remove one’s green-tinted glasses and to see Oz as it really is. Many species — including ash, oak, maple, hemlock, elm, and white pine — have their own particular pest or disease threatening them. And there are more pests and diseases on the horizon, including insects like the spotted lanternfly and infections that weakened trees cannot fight off. Many trees are also stressed by bouts of drought or intense rain, by rising temperatures and changing season length, by extreme weather — by all the various manifestations of climate change — as well as by air pollution and by invasive plants choking or displacing them. The list of threats is long, synergistic, and growing rapidly, which means that trees do not have sufficient time to recover and adapt. On a morning in late summer, the LeVangies inspected several trees in Petersham, where, since 2014, Melissa LeVangie has been warden — a position every municipality in Massachusetts has been required to have since 1899. When she can’t make it, her twin checks on the trees. Bear LeVangie works for Eversource, traveling a circuit of 35 towns in Connecticut, overseeing trimming and pruning crews and looking for “hazard trees,” including those that are dead or dying. They visited an ash being treated for emerald ash borer, an invasive insect that has killed tens of millions of trees, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Bear LeVangie flipped over a leaf. More trouble: tussock moth larvae and two other pests. They visited an oak that had put on scant growth this season, likely because of the drought. Now over four months long, the drought has led to increased wildland fire risk across the state. And they visited a young maple with red and yellow leaves. “People look at that and say ‘Oh look, fall is coming early, it is going to be a colorful fall!’ No. This is happening early because the trees are very stressed out,” said Bear LeVangie.
Trump creates federal government council on global tree planting initiative --President Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order involving the federal government in a global tree planting initiative that already has private sector participation in the U.S. The executive order creates a council that’s in charge of “developing, coordinating, and promoting Federal Government interactions with the Initiative with respect to tree growing, restoration, and conservation.” The council will also create methods to track and measure the number of trees planted, conserved or restored and address any laws and regulations that get in the way of these actions. “On January 21, 2020, I announced that to further protect the environment, the United States would be joining the World Economic Forum's One Trillion Trees initiative... an ambitious global effort to grow and conserve one trillion trees worldwide by 2030,” the executive order said. “Following through on my commitment, and given the expansive footprint of our Federal forests and woodlands, this order initiates the formation of the United States One Trillion Trees Interagency Council to further the Federal Government's contribution to the global effort,” it continued. The order did not specify how many trees the federal government would seek to grow or conserve. The Trump administration has touted its decision to join the World Economic Forum’s Trillion Trees Initiative, which plans to grow, restore and conserve that many trees across the globe, as an action it has taken to better the environment. However, it has also taken steps to reduce restrictions on the timber industry cutting down trees. It has proposed, for example,opening up a previously protected 9.37 million acre area of the Tongass National Forest to logging. That forest is a major carbon sink, meaning its trees soak up carbon from the atmosphere, lessening the impacts of climate change.Scientists have said planting trees can help but that it isn’t a panaceaand that the U.S. will also have to significantly reduce its emissions to mitigate climate change impacts.The new council will be chaired by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, Trump’s economic advisor Larry Kudlow and Deputy Chief of Staff Christopher Liddell. Other council members are presidential advisers Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, and several cabinet members including Secretary of StateMike Pompeo, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler and Education Secretary Betsy Devos.
Wild Predators Are Relying More on Our Food—and Pets -- SOME OF NORTH America’s big predators—wolves, mountain lions, bobcats, and the like— are now getting nearly half their food from people. It’s a big shift away from eating foods found in nature and could put them in conflict with one another, or lead to more human-carnivore encounters on running trails or suburban backyards. A new study from researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of New Mexico used hair, fur, and bone samples to identify the diets of seven carnivore species across the Upper Midwest, from the outskirts of Albany, New York, to remote Minnesota forestland. The scientists used chemical tracers to show that the animals were relying on human food sources either directly, such as by raiding fields or trash bins, or indirectly by preying on smaller animals that do, such as mice, rabbits, or sometimes even pets.“These species are eating human food,” says Philip Manlick, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of New Mexico and the lead author of the study, which was published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “In some cases, up to half of their diets are coming from humans. It might be garbage, or corn residue, or house cats and pets,” Manlick says. “This is bad news for carnivores, because people don’t want predators eating their pets—and, generally speaking, people don’t like carnivores in their backyard.” The complete list of these carnivores studied in the report includes foxes, coyotes, fishers, and martens. And not only are they coming into contact with people more frequently (you probably already saw this six-minute viral video of the Utah jogger chased by a mountain lion after he got too close to her cubs), but they are also fighting each other for food, Manlick says. “They will use their weapons against each other as well,” Manlick says. “As their diets begin to overlap, they are more likely to kill each other. The consumption of food resources presents a lot of challenges for carnivores in the future.” The researchers found that foxes were the most likely to eat from human food sources, getting about half their food by eating domesticated animals or by foraging in areas that have been disturbed by agriculture, while the wolf and bobcat were the least likely, getting less than 5 percent of their diet from these sources.
Monkey ‘Gang Wars’ Keep Killing People in India -On October 6, Laxman Tulsiani, a gold dealer, and Veera, a caretaker, were examining a construction site in Agra city in north India’s Uttar Pradesh (UP) state. A massive monkey brawl broke out at the property, resulting in a wall collapsing on the two men. Laxman and Veera died at a nearby hospital. With a monkey population of more than 50 million, there have been at least 13 deaths caused by monkey attacks across India since 2015. More than 1,000 cases of monkey bites are reported every day in Indian cities, according to a government run primate research centre. “India has been facing a monkey menace since the late 80’s. Before that, humans and primates peacefully co-existed without such conflicts,” Dr Iqbal Malik, a primatologist, with 40 years of experience in studying monkey species in India, told VICE News. Dr Malik points to a variety of reasons behind the deteriorating relationship between humans and primates. “Lack of population control of both humans and monkeys, depletion of forest areas which could have been habitats for monkeys, and shift to monoculture farming has led to increased rivalry and aggression amongst monkeys.” “This aggression then carries on to humans, especially in cases when the land inhabited by monkeys is usurped by the authorities.” Between 2002 and 2018, India lost 310,624 hectares of forest cover due to deforestation and industrialisation. Depending on the scale and nature of damage, state governments have come up with various ideas to tackle the issue. In the national capital, Delhi, the government has been relocating monkeys to a wildlife sanctuary. There have also been efforts to shift monkeys from Delhi to forests in neighbouring states. In India, people’s cultural beliefs impact the way they treat monkeys. Hanuman (also called Bajrangbali), the monkey deity, is one of the most popular gods in Hindu mythology. “People call me to relocate monkeys in urban areas, but I can’t bear to see them caged. After all, they are our lord Bajrangbali,” Ravi Kumar, a monkey chaser in Delhi, told VICE News. Kumar, who chases monkeys by imitating their sound, describes himself as a “security guard for monkeys”.
Whales, Sea Turtles, Seals: The Unintended Catch Of Abandoned Fishing Gear - There are fewer than 500 North Atlantic right whales left in the world. And now, one less: This weekend, one of the 45-ton creatures was found dead off the coast of Maine, completely entangled in fishing line — head, flippers and all.This was not an isolated incident.In late June, an endangered blue whale wrapped in fishing gear was seen struggling off the coast of Dana Point in Southern California. Rescuers were unable to extricate it before it swam away. And earlier this month, rescuers unsuccessfully tried to free anentangled humpback whale near Newport. Spotters say they believe the humpback eventually found its way free of most of the gear, though they're unsure if there's anything still trapped in its mouth.While any kind of fishing gear can be lost or abandoned at sea, gillnets, crab pots and traps are the most common types that continue to "ghost fish" — entrapping marine animals like whales, seals, sea lions and sea turtles.Last year, the West Coast saw 61 whale entanglements — a record number that is nonetheless likely to be broken this year. So far in 2016, there have been 60 reports of entanglements as of late September. Why it's happening is unclear. Researchers say there's more derelict gear in the water today, and more reported sightings, but population numbers and migratory patterns of whales have also shifted. What happens when a whale becomes entangled is grim. "The gear is really, really heavy and when a whale comes in contact with it, it thrashes around to shed the gear," says Kristen Monsell, an attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity. Sometimes that works; sometimes it entangles the whale even further. "Sometimes it can drown the whale immediately, or it can happen over weeks, because they get so tired," she says. "They eventually die of exhaustion. If the gear is in their mouths, it impedes their ability to feed. It can amputate their tails or other parts of the body. And for younger whales, the gear may wrap around them, but the whale keeps growing and it cuts into their flesh."
Cargo Vessels Are Killing More Whales — A New Effort Aims to Save Them -- A blue whale can weigh as much as 200 tons and consume 12,000 pounds of krill in a single day. But even the largest animal on Earth doesn't stand a chance against a fast-moving cargo ship.Collisions between whales and shipping vessels are especially prevalent in areas where whale habitat overlaps with busy port traffic, such as the Santa Barbara Channel. This 70-mile stretch of water between mainland California and the Northern Channel Islands is a thoroughfare for thousands of cargo ships going to and from the busy ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. It's also a hotspot for endangered and threatened whales.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has instituted voluntary slow-speed zones, but whale-ship strikes have still been on the rise for the past few years.To reverse that trend, a group of scientists from all over the country have collaborated on a new project spearheaded by U.C. Santa Barbara's Benioff Ocean Initiative. Whale Safe, a technology-based mapping and analysis tool, provides near real-time data on whale activity in the Santa Barbara Channel in the hope of reducing fatal whale-ship collisions.We spoke to Morgan Visalli, the science lead at the Benioff Ocean Initiative, about how the technology works and what the public can do to help hold shipping companies accountable. Many whale species thankfully are recovering from the days of intensive whaling, when they were hunted to the brink of extinction. But now they're facing other threats from ship strikes and fishing gear entanglements.The Santa Barbara Channel, where we've launched Whale Safe, is a really important feeding ground for blue, humpback and fin whales — all species that are either endangered or threatened. Those three species are the ones that we're focusing on with this first launch of the project.The past two years were some of the worst on record for ship strikes off the West Coast of the United States. Even worse, the number that we actually see recorded in the data is likely a small percentage of the actual number of ship strikes that occurred.Scientists estimate that only about 5% to 17% of whale carcasses are actually observed and recorded. So if we see 13 whale carcasses that wash up on the beach, as was the case last year on the West Coast of the United States, it's likely that that could actually be closer to 130 ship strikes that occurred.
New mass deaths of sea animals discovered off Russia's Kamchatka - (video) Authorities reported Monday, October 12, 2020, that a new mass die-off of marine animals has been discovered off the coast of Russia's Kamchatka, where mysterious toxic pollution along a 40 km (25 miles) stretch recently killed 95 percent of seabed animals and caused health hazards among surfers since September. Kamchatka Governor Vladimir Solodov said he received reports from scientists and witnesses of dead marine creatures off the coast, following the initial discovery last week. Divers who studied the waters reported that 95 percent of seabed creatures were found dead, including sea urchins, octopi, seals, and starfish. Greenpeace Russia called the situation an "ecological disaster," which prompted authorities to investigate marine pollution. "95 percent are dead," said Ivan Usatov of the Kronotsky Nature Reserve in a meeting with other scientists and Solodov. "Some large fish, shrimps, and crabs have survived, but in very small numbers." Solodov noted that neighboring beaches were not affected, but the evidence showed that "the scale of the occurrence is extremely large." He added that the deaths were "almost certainly linked to climate change and other polluting effects we as humankind cause to the Pacific Ocean." "We can’t say that a local man-made object near [the port city of] Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky was the cause," the governor said. On Monday, Russian Academy of Sciences vice president Andrei Adrianov theorized that the mass die-off was caused by toxins from an algae bloom. This has been backed by leading Russian marine biologists, who took note of the presence of yellow foam covering the affected region seen from space.In September, the toxic pollution was first reported by local surfers and swimmers, who suffered apparent chemical burns, vomiting, fever, coughing, and eye problems after going in the waters. Some developed lesions on their corneas and 11 people had to be taken to the hospital. Solodov said he ordered authorities to conduct a comprehensive research project to examine the mysterious deaths. "We’ve encountered a new large-scale phenomenon that science has yet to comprehend."
Pollution Prosecutions Plummet to Lowest Level in Decades Under Trump - A new report finds that criminal prosecutions for polluting the environment in violation of the Clean Water Act or the Clean Air Act have dropped to their lowest levels in decades under the Trump administration, as The New York Times reported.The report was written by David Uhlmann, a law professor at the University of Michigan who worked for the Department of Justice for 17 years and served as its top environmental prosecutor from 2000 to 2007.In the paper, the career prosecutor-turned-professor analyzed 14 years of cases and found that in the first two years of the Trump administration, criminal prosecutions for violations of the Clean Water Act dropped 70 percent. Similarly, prosecutions for violations of the Clean Air Act dropped 50 percent in the first two years since Trump took office."No matter what the future holds, the data from the first two years under President Trump reveals a dramatic departure from the non-partisan support for pollution prosecutions that had existed across administrations, which leaves Americans less safe and the environment less protected," Uhlmann wrote.Uhlmann presented the paper at the American Bar Association's fall environmental conference. While the paper is available online now, it will be published in the Michigan Journal of Environmental and Administrative Law, according to The New York Times.The paper noted that there were only nine criminal prosecutions under the Clean Water Act in 2018. "Under President Donald J. Trump the bottom fell out," Uhlmann wrote, as The New York Times reported.Uhlmann told The New York Times that the numbers show a dramatic decline in both the quantity and the quality of the prosecutions that the administration is pursuing.While the study looked at the first two years of the Trump administration and found a pattern that shattered the author's perception that law enforcement operated independently of political influence, recent data has shown the trend continued through 2019. According to Justice Department data analyzed by Syracuse University's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), the total number of environmental prosecutions in fiscal year 2019 was lower than any year during the administrations of the previous three presidents, which dates back to 1993, asCourthouse News reported.
Shuffle of EPA's science advisers elevates those with industry tries A shuffle to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) independent board of science advisers will add a longtime consultant who has worked for the tobacco and chemicals industries while promoting a member listed as someone “not to pick” by the Union of Concerned Scientists to be the panel's chair. The EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) is meant to serve as an outside sounding board on the agency’s actions, with 40 or so of the nation’s top scientists weighing in on the scientific backing behind a number of policy proposals. But the board has shifted under the Trump administration, adding more members with ties to industry and fewer members with an academic background, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office. That follows a move by prior EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt barring academics from serving on the board if they received agency grants for their research. A list of new appointees released Wednesday includes the usual cast of academics and state environmental and health officials. But it also adds Kenneth Mundt to the board, a consultant with Cardno ChemRisk who critics say has a history of working to discredit science on the harms of tobacco and a number of chemicals. “Kenneth Mundt is pretty much a classic product defender. He has been employed by the chemical industry on pretty much every harmful chemical you can think of to defend it and to downplay the science on it,” said Genna Reed with the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Center for Science and Democracy. Though Mundt is new to the board, he’s already being placed in a leadership role, assigned to chair the SAB’s chemicals subcommittee. “They’re not even trying to hide that they are undermining all the independence of the Science Advisory Board. By placing him at the helm of the chemicals subcommittee they are basically announcing they are going to be pushing out peer reviews that are more favorable to industry.” Mundt has worked to defend hexavalent chromium — the contaminant at play in the Erin Brockovich film — as well as formaldehyde and chloroprene, used in the production of synthetic rubber neoprene. Each has been linked with various types of cancer. When he was hired to represent chloroprene manufacturer Denka, the Natural Resources Defense Council called Mundt “the right person for the job, having previously defended chemical and tobacco industries. As a consultant for Philip Morris and the tobacco industry, Mundt attacked the National Cancer Institute’s findings that low-tar cigarettes could cause lung cancer.”
Statistics: Sharp increase in natural disasters over the past 20 years - A new United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) report confirms how extreme weather events have come to dominate the disaster landscape at the beginning of 21st century. Floods and storms were the most prevalent disaster events, followed by earthquakes, extreme temperatures, landslides, droughts, wildfires, volcanic activity and dry mass movement. UNDRR used statistics from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) which records disasters which have killed ten or more people, affected 100 or more people, resulted in a declared state of emergency, or a call for international assistance. There were 7 348 major natural disaster events from 2000 to 2019, with 1.23 million lives lost and 4.2 billion people affected, resulting in approximately US$2.97 trillion in global economic losses. This is a sharp increase over the previous 20-year period (1980 - 1999) when EM-DAT recorded 4 212 natural disasters worldwide, 1.19 million lives lost, 3.25 billion people affected, and approximately US$1.63 trillion in economic losses. On average, there were 367 disaster events each year from 2000 to 2019, the majority of which were floods and storms (44% and 28%, respectively). According to the report, much of the difference is explained by a rise in climate-related disasters, including extreme weather events: from 3 656 climate-related events (1980 - 1999) to 6 681 climate-related disasters in the period 2000 - 2019. Floods and storms were the most prevalent disaster events. The last twenty years have seen the number of major floods more than double, from 1 389 to 3 254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1 457 to 2 034. There has also been a rise in geo-physical events including earthquakes and tsunamis which have killed more people than any of the other natural hazards under review in the report.
Southern New England hit by a rare derecho, NWS confirms - The unusually powerful storm in Southern New England last week, October 7, 2020, was a rare derecho, the National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed. The storm killed at least two people, left more than 200 000 customers without power, caused damage to a 515 km (320 miles) stretch, and recorded a wind gust of 109 km/h (68 mph) -- the region's highest daily gust for the month of October. The storm ranks as one of the strongest severe weather events in the United States this year. On October 7, a sudden storm struck New York and New England, resulting in two fatalities and major wind damage. More than 200 damaging wind reports were received from New York to Massachusetts.Power was cut to more than 200 000 customers. National Grid spokeswoman Virginia Limmiatis said the area has not experienced an outage this widespread in more than a decade."The last time we would’ve seen 200 000-plus customers out and that widespread damage, probably was back in 2008 with the ice storm."Widespread wind gusts between 80 and 95 km/h (50 and 60 mph) were registered down the Mohawk Valley into the Greater Capital District, with a 107 km/h (67 mph) wind gust measured at the Albany International Airport.This ranks as the highest gust for the month of October with records dating back to 1987. "The wind speed did break a record for the day," confirmed Mike Evans of the NWS Albany. "It’s definitely an unusual event. It would be a little bit more typical to see something like this in the summer, but really, to see this at any point in the year, I would consider it fairly unusual."
October 2020 La Niña update by Emily Becker, ENS0 Blog, NOAA's Climate.gov -- La Niña’s reign continues in the tropical Pacific, with an approximately 85% chance of lasting through the winter. Forecasters currently think this La Niña will be on the stronger side. The temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño3.4 region was about 0.8°C cooler than the 1986–2015 average, according to the ERSSTv5 dataset. We monitor the Niño3.4 index with a few different temperature datasets—more on that here—but they are all comfortably below the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. The three-month-average Niño3.4 index, called the Oceanic Niño Index(remember this for later!) was -0.6°C. The Oceanic Niño Index is our primary metric for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, aka ENSO, the whole El Niño/La Niña ocean/atmosphere system. The atmosphere is responding to La Niña’s cooler-than-average ocean surface. A strengthened Walker circulation is what we expect with La Niña conditions, and it’s what we have: air rising vigorously over the very warm western Pacific, traveling eastward high up in the atmosphere, sinking over the cooler central-eastern Pacific, and traveling back westward near the surface. Near-surface winds along the tropical Pacific (the trade winds) were stronger than average through the month of September and into early October, as were upper-level winds over the east-central Pacific. The two indexes we use to measure the change in sea-level pressure between the western and eastern Pacific, the Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were positive, indicating the presence of more rising air (lower surface pressure) over the west and more sinking air (higher surface pressure) over the east—more evidence of an enhanced Walker circulation. Most of the dynamical computer model forecasts predict that La Niña will last through the winter and diminish in the spring. Also, there remains a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface of the central-eastern Pacific. This will provide a source of cooler water for the surface, giving confidence to the forecast that La Niña will continue.
Darwin records highest October daily rainfall since 1941 - Northern Territory, Australia - Northern Territory's capital Darwin was hit by up to 177 mm (7 inches) of rainfall on Thursday, October 8, 2020-- the city's highest daily rainfall for October since record-keeping began in 1941, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed. The agency added that the rain came from multiple lines of storms consistent with La Niña conditions. "The heavens opened in Darwin," said BOM senior meteorologist Sally Cutter. "It's been a dramatic contrast to the past two wet seasons, which were much drier." Northern Territory had a flying start to the west season as rainfall in Darwin was 17 times greater than what fell during the same time in 2019. Marrara in north Darwin recorded 177 mm (7 inches) of rain on Thursday morning, Royal Darwin Hospital saw 137 mm (5 inches), while Darwin airport received 113 mm (4 inches). The previous record for the highest October daily rainfall was 95.5 mm (3.7 inches) set in 1969. Before modern data-keeping started in 1941, the Darwin Post Office registered 117 mm (5 inches) of rain in 1880. According to BOM, the rain came from multiple lines of storms consistent with La Niña conditions, which usually increases early wet season rains in the Top End. During the wet season, the average total rain for Darwin City is 1 676.1 mm (66 inches). The highest wet season rainfall recorded was 2 918.4 mm (115 inches) during the last significant La Niña event in 2010/11. This was about 1.7 times higher than usual.
Hurricane Delta Floods Parts of Louisiana Still Recovering From August’s Laura -- Record-breaking hurricane Delta made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane near Creole, Louisiana Friday evening, striking another blow to a region still recovering from Hurricane Laura just six weeks earlier.Especially hard hit by the one-two punch of storms was the town of Lake Charles, The Associated Press reported. While Delta was weaker than Category 4 Laura, which damaged almost every building in the town, the second storm brought more flooding, inundating hundreds of the same buildings. "Add Laura and Delta together and it's just absolutely unprecedented and catastrophic," Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter told The Associated Press. "We are very concerned that with everything going in the country right now that this incident may not be on the radar nationally like it should be." In addition to walloping Lake Charles, Delta also knocked out power to more than 400,000 homes and businesses in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas as of Sunday morning, CNN reported. The outages had deadly results. An 86-year-old man in St. Martin Parish, Louisiana died in a fire after trying to fuel a generator in his shed. The storm weakened to a post-tropical cyclone and moved north out of Louisiana over the weekend but continued to cause damage. A train derailed in Lilburn, Georgia because of heavy rain, and two tornadoesalso touched down in the state, injuring two. By Sunday night, the post-tropical remnants of the storm were located about 60 miles north-northeast of Atlanta, Georgia and were expected to continue to weaken, the National Hurricane Center said.
Aerial footage: See Hurricane Delta's damage in Cameron Parish during flyover tour --Aerial footage shows Hurricane Delta's damage in Cameron Parish on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020. Delta made landfall along the southwest Louisiana coast Friday evening, bring wind damage, high rain totals, flooding and more to the region.
Delta’s Impacts Less Severe, But Part of Big-Picture Recovery - Hurricane Delta brought more flooding than wind, but teams surveying Louisiana and Texas so far are reporting less damage to infrastructure and facilities than what they saw after Hurricane Laura just a few weeks ago. With back-to-back hurricanes, teams are assessing the big-picture impact of two storms in a short amount of time. “You can’t look at Delta without Laura,” says Erika Walter, spokeswoman for the Pelican chapter of the Associated Buliders and Contractors. “A lot of the Lake Charles area was still bleeding when Delta came, and that just picked the scab and made it worse.” Delta made landfall Friday evening in Creole, La., as a Category 2 storm, just six weeks after Laura came on shore about a dozen miles away as a Category 4 hurricane. Walter says it helped that contractors have had storm protocols in place for weeks, on top of COVID-19 precautions they’ve had to take for the past six months. “I think our contractors did shine in these areas because they’re used to the last-minute changes a hurricane can throw into the equation of a job site,” she says. As of Monday morning, Entergy Corp. had restored power to over three-fourths of its 493,375 customers in Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi who had lost power at the peak of Hurricane Delta. Compared to the catastrophic damages of Hurricane Laura on Aug. 27, Delta’s impact on the region’s power grid appears to be far less severe, the utility reported Monday morning. Transmission and distribution systems in southeast Louisiana had to undergo a full-scale reconstruction that left many without power for weeks. “Although Hurricane Delta caused outages to the transmission system in southwest Louisiana, initial assessments indicate minimal transmission damage, which will allow for facilities to be restored much more quickly than following Hurricane Laura,” Entergy spokesman Jerry Nappi said in a statement. Delta knocked out service for 162 transmission lines and 215 substations. As of Monday morning, there were 176 substations and 107 lines back in service by Monday morning. Entergy rebuilt most of the transmission system after Laura, and the utility reports that Delta’s impact to the ongoing restoration of the remaining facilities appears minimal. Using drones, airboats, helicopters, and on-ground surveyors, Entergy on Monday continued its regional damage assessments, which the utility says could take up to three days.
In and around Lake Charles, Laura-weary residents pick up the pieces again after Hurricane Delta — In late August, Hurricane Laura's winds, whistling like a train, tore the roof off Brian Schexnayder’s home in southwest Louisiana and nearly destroyed it. He put a tarp on it and tried to move on. But on Friday night, Hurricane Delta took a remarkably similar path through his neighborhood, bringing high winds and lashing rain. The Category 2 storm sounded less menacing than Category 4 Laura, he said, but the effect was still disastrous. “In the first five minutes, it blew the tarp off,” said Schexnayder, 62, who goes by “Shakey.” The rain poured down into every room in his house. The house is now a total loss, he said. Hurricane Delta: Nearly half a million in Louisiana without power; see latest for metro New Orleans Hurricane Delta: Nearly half a million in Louisiana without power; see latest for metro New Orleans Rain gauges maintained by the National Weather Service show that Iowa received 17 inches of rain as Delta blew through Friday evening. It was the heaviest rainfall seen anywhere in the state. On Saturday morning, Schexnayder and several neighbors were trying to sort out the new damage from the old damage. This time, flood waters filled the streets — an effect they didn’t see with Laura. Schexnayder was also trying to round up his animals. When the water came up Friday, he moved his hog to higher ground in his back yard. Inside his shed, his cats also found that their favorite napping spot, a 1995 red Corvette, had taken on water. After Laura, it took 24 days for people in Iowa to get power back. Even then, their power grid was running off a generator. Hurricane Delta undid that progress, initially cutting off power to more than 600,000 households around the state, according to Gov. John Bel Edwards. Schexnayder and his neighbor, Elsie Lane, had both stocked up on gas to power their own generators ahead of the storm, and she offered him extra in case he ran out. “I don’t think this one’s hit me yet,” said Lane, 50, as she assessed how close flood waters had come to entering her house. But she said she feels compelled to help her neighbors even more now that her own home has survived the past two storms.
Over 32,000 without electricity in Louisiana Tuesday afternoon - As of 11:45 a.m. Tuesday, slightly more than 32,000 remain without power in Louisiana and in the capital region, just over 800 are without electricity, according to Entergy. Entergy says 100% of their customers are expected to have power returned sometime Tuesday. Meanwhile, on Tuesday morning DEMCO tells WBRZ its crews have been successful in clearing debris from roadways, so now they're able to get to work on restoring power to homes and other buildings. The news reflects the progress of both utility companies in the aftermath of Hurricane Delta's impact on the state. The worst of the outages occurred Saturday, when more than 320,000 Entergy customers were without power across Louisiana and DEMCO reported that a quarter of its customers were without electricity. In the Greater Baton Rouge area, power outages started around sunset as Delta made landfall on Friday evening. The outages continued as the night went on and weather conditions became increasingly severe, with whipping wind knocking trees onto lines and toppling poles. On Saturday morning, Entergy was in the assessment phase of restoration and crews assessing damage would also be able to reconnect some customers, a spokesperson said. By Sunday evening Entergy said crews had already restored power to over 200,000 customers, and estimated restoration times are now available for all customers who were impacted by the storm.
Severe floods in Southeast Asia claim at least 28 lives - Heavy rains and floods since the beginning of the month have left at least 28 people dead and hundreds of thousands affected in Southeast Asian countries of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. Most of the fatalities were in Vietnam and Cambodia, where thousands of people have been displaced and wide swaths of crops destroyed. Floods worsened after Tropical Storm "Linfa" made landfall over Quang Nam and Quang Ngai, Vietnam on October 11. In Cambodia, at least 11 people have died since the beginning of the month, a disaster official reported Sunday, October 11. Among the fatalities, 10 reportedly drowned in floodwaters while one was killed by lightning. Several hundred families have been evacuated to higher areas. As of October 10, around 14 000 people were believed to be affected. About 40 000 ha (98 800) of crops and paddy fields have been ravaged. Prime Minister Hun Sen has ordered local authorities to mobilize assistance to flood victims. The Department of Public Works and Transportation banned trucks from flooded roads in Battambang and Pursat, the worst affected provinces in the northwest. Other affected areas are Banteay Meanchey, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Speu, Kandal, Pailin, Svay Rieng, Phnom Penh, and Takeo. In Vietnam, at least 17 people have been killed by floods in central provinces, while 13 people remain missing. Around 45 835 people have been displaced, while about 109 034 houses have been submerged and damaged, according to a government report. Floods have hampered the delivery of food supplies to thousands of victims. Fatalities were reported in Quang Tri, Thua Thien-Hue, Quang Nam, Da Nang, Quang Binh, Quang Ngai, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, and Lam Dong. Linfa brought further rainfall to Vietnam's central provinces after it made landfall over Quang Nam and Quang Ngai on Sunday, October 11. Inundations are expected to continue as more heavy rainfall is on the way.
Death toll climbs to 29, over 130 000 houses flooded in central Vietnam (videos) At least 29 fatalities have been confirmed in central Vietnam as of Tuesday morning, October 13, 2020, after prolonged heavy rains triggered destructive floods and landslides. 12 others remain missing, more than 130 000 houses have been inundated, and wide swaths of crops have been damaged or destroyed. More rains are expected in northern and north-central Vietnam after Tropical Storm "Nangka" makes landfall on Wednesday, October 14. According to the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, 23 of the victims succumbed to floodwaters, three died in boating accidents, while the remaining three lost their lives due to electrocution. Most of the fatalities were reported in Quang Tri Province, where eight deaths occurred, while six casualties were reported each in Quang Nam and Thua Thien-Hue. Among the victims in Thua Thien-Hue was a 35-year-old pregnant woman who was going into labor. She and her husband took a boat on the way to a local medical center for delivery, but the boat upturned and she was swept away by floodwater. Two fatalities each were reported in Quang Binh and Kon Tum, while one death each was reported in Da Nang, Quang Ngai, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, and Lam Dong. The severe weather has left 12 others missing, flooded more than 130 000 homes, and damaged 4 000 ha (10 000 acres) of crops, as well as bridges and several roads, the committee added. Since last week, the central region has been struck by intense rains after a cold spell and tropical turbulence came into contact. The turbulence then strengthened into a tropical depression and was named Linfa. The storm made landfall over Quang Nam and Quang Ngai on Sunday, October 11, worsening the situation. Almost 50 000 people have been evacuated from flood-hit areas in Quan Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien-Hue, and Quang Nam. Local authorities have appealed to the government for urgent food assistance of more than 6 500 tons of rice, 5.5 tons of dry provisions, 20 000 boxes of noodles, and other rescue equipment.
Tropical Storm "Nangka" makes landfall in Vietnam just three days after Linfa - Tropical Storm "Nangka" made landfall in northern Vietnam at around 06:00 UTC on October 14, 2020. Nangka is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season. The storm hit land just 3 days after Tropical Storm "Linfa" -- further exacerbating flooding across the region. Prolonged heavy rainfall is affecting Vietnam, Cambodia, and neighboring countries since the start of the month, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and claiming the lives of at least 40. In Cambodia, an estimated 140 000 people have been affected and more than 10 000 evacuated after Tropical Storm "Linfa" moved over the country on October 11 and 12, 2020, triggering flash floods. According to officials, seasonal rains made worse by Linfa triggered floods in 19 of Cambodia's 25 provinces, killing at least 11 people since the start of the month. More than 40 000 ha (98 800 acres) of crops and paddy fields have been destroyed.Linfa made landfall in Vietnam at 03:00 UTC on October 11, bringing heavy rainfall to its central provinces. In just 7 days, A Luoi in Hue registered 1 888 mm (74.33 inches) of rain, Khe Tre in Hue 1 788 mm (70.39 inches) while Huong Linh in Quang Tri recorded 1 520 mm (59.8 inches). Over 370 000 customers lost power in Vietnam after the storm. At least 29 fatalities have been confirmed in central Vietnam as of Tuesday morning, October 13. 12 others remain missing, more than 130 000 houses have been inundated, and wide swaths of crops have been damaged or destroyed. Both countries are expecting more heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm "Nangka" which made landfall in Hainan, China at 11:20 UTC on October 13 and continued toward northern Vietnam where it made landfall on October 14 with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph). Parts of northern and central rainfall are expecting an additional 400 mm (16 inches) of rain from Wednesday, October 14 to Friday, October 16.
China sees historical 21 large-scale floods and above national average rainfall in 2020 - China has seen 21 large-scale floods in 2020, 1.6 times more than that of past years, hitting a record since 1998. This year's national average rainfall of 616 mm (24 inches) is 13% more than the same period in 2019, setting the record for second-highest since 1961.The floods took place in the six main river basins in China, including in the rivers Yangtze and Yellow. A total of 833 rivers have risen above warning levels-- 80 percent more than in the same period of that year, said China's Ministry of Water Resources.267 of the rivers were above the safety level, while 77 hit historical record highs, including the country's largest freshwater lake Poyang, which hit its highest level since 1998. The Qingyi River, an upper Yangtze tributary, had set its worst flooding in a century. RIvers Yangtze and Huai had seen their highest level of rainfall since records began in 1961, officials said. This year, the national average rainfall reached 616 mm (24 inches)-- 13 percent more than the same period in 2019 and the second-highest since 1961.Water levels in some major rivers in the Northeast are still above the limit or warning levels. The ministry and other relevant authorities assured that efforts are ongoing to conduct solid flood control operations as the country is now in its late-stage flood season.As of October 12, this year's floods have caused property damage worth 32 billion dollars. About 219 people were dead or missing. The affected regions include Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Chongqing, and the lower regions of the Yangtze basin.
At least 13 killed as worst rains in more than 100 years flood Hyderabad, India - A deep depression that crossed Andhra Pradesh coast near Kakinada on Tuesday, October 13, 2020, brought unprecedented rainfall over Hyderabad, capital of the Indian state of Telangana, from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning, claiming the lives of at least 13 people. Authorities are urging residents to stay indoors and remain cautious as more heavy rainfall is expected in the days ahead. Meteorologists said the rains that hit the region are rare and unseasonal. According to the India Meteorological Office, Ghatkesar on the city outskirts received record rainfall of 322 mm (12.6 inches) from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. This is the heaviest rainfall the city has seen in more than a century. During the same period, Hayathnagar recorded 294 mm (11.5 inches) and Hastinapuram 283 mm (11.1 inches). The resulting floods submerged dozens of colonies in the city and its suburbs, forced authorities to deploy rescue boats and evacuate hundreds of people from their homes. Local media reported hundreds of vehicles stranded on the Hyderabad-Vijayawada highway. Traffic was slow or brought to a standstill on the Hyderabad-Bengaluru highway and toward Hyderabad Airport at Shamshabad. Some parts of the city were without power for over 12 hours, TWC India reports. According to local media reports, 9 people were killed and 3 others injured when a wall collapsed and fell on two houses in Bandlaguda in the old city of Hyderabad. 2 people drowned and 2 others went missing in the Gaganpahad area in Shamshabad on the outskirts of Hyderabad. 2 more persons were feared killed in Abdullahpur, also on the outskirts.
Death toll jumps to 77 as unseasonal, record rains hit parts of India - Heavy rains affecting parts of India, including Telangana, Maharashtra, and Karnataka this week claimed the lives of at least 77 people by October 16, 2020. Meteorologists described the rains as rare and unseasonal. At least 50 people have died in Telangana, many of them in the capital Hyderabad, since Tuesday night (LT), October 13, 2020, when a deep depression brought unprecedented rains and floods. According to the India Meteorological Office (IMD), Ghatkesar on the city outskirts received record rainfall of 322 mm (12.6 inches) from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. IMD said Hyderabad has last seen such heavy October rains in 1891. 2020 is now the wettest year on record for Telangana, with 404% more than normal annual rainfall. Hyderabad itself has received 404% excess rainfall.
At least 12 people dead after heavy rains trigger flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania - At least 12 people lost their lives after heavy rain and flooding hit Dar es Salaam, Tanzania overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, October 13 to 14, 2020.The deaths occurred in Ilala and Kinondoni Police Zones, Dar es Salaam Special Zone Police Commander Lazaro Mambosasa reported Thursday, October 15."At around 16:00 UTC (19:00 LT) on October 13, Mariam Yahaya (45), a resident of Vingunguti, died after she drowned while trying to save her belongings which were washed away by water," he said in a statement.Yahaya's remains were retrieved in the Msimbazi River, so as five other bodies. Two of the casualties were identified as 18-year-old Herieth Kanuti and 19-year-old Ipyana Mwakifuna. The other three were yet to be identified. The body of another victim, 30-year-old Philipo Feliciani from Tabata Kimanga, was found in Tenge River on Wednesday."The victim died after falling off and being washed away by water as he tried to cross the bridge used by pedestrians at Tabata Kimanga." Two unidentified men were found dead in Ukonga-Sabasa and Msimbazi River. Meanwhile, two children from the same family drowned after their house in Kogogo valley was inundated. Two adults were also killed.
Statistics: Sharp increase in natural disasters over the past 20 years - A new United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) report confirms how extreme weather events have come to dominate the disaster landscape at the beginning of 21st century. Floods and storms were the most prevalent disaster events, followed by earthquakes, extreme temperatures, landslides, droughts, wildfires, volcanic activity and dry mass movement. UNDRR used statistics from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) which records disasters which have killed ten or more people, affected 100 or more people, resulted in a declared state of emergency, or a call for international assistance. There were 7 348 major natural disaster events from 2000 to 2019, with 1.23 million lives lost and 4.2 billion people affected, resulting in approximately US$2.97 trillion in global economic losses. This is a sharp increase over the previous 20-year period (1980 - 1999) when EM-DAT recorded 4 212 natural disasters worldwide, 1.19 million lives lost, 3.25 billion people affected, and approximately US$1.63 trillion in economic losses. On average, there were 367 disaster events each year from 2000 to 2019, the majority of which were floods and storms (44% and 28%, respectively). According to the report, much of the difference is explained by a rise in climate-related disasters, including extreme weather events: from 3 656 climate-related events (1980 - 1999) to 6 681 climate-related disasters in the period 2000 - 2019. Floods and storms were the most prevalent disaster events. The last twenty years have seen the number of major floods more than double, from 1 389 to 3 254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1 457 to 2 034. There has also been a rise in geo-physical events including earthquakes and tsunamis which have killed more people than any of the other natural hazards under review in the report.
Natural disasters surge in past 20 years, likely to continue to wreak havoc: U.N. (Reuters) - Extreme weather events have increased dramatically in the past 20 years, taking a heavy human and economic toll worldwide, and are likely to wreak further havoc, the United Nations said on Monday. Heatwaves and droughts will pose the greatest threat in the next decade, as temperatures continue to rise due to heat-trapping gases, experts said. China (577) and the United States (467) recorded the highest number of disaster events from 2000 to 2019, followed by India (321), the Philippines (304) and Indonesia (278), the U.N. said in a report issued the day before the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction. Eight of the top 10 countries are in Asia. Some 7,348 major disaster events were recorded globally, claiming 1.23 million lives, affecting 4.2 billion people and causing $2.97 trillion in economic losses during the two-decade period.Drought, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires and extreme temperature events caused major damage. “The good news is that more lives have been saved but the bad news is that more people are being affected by the expanding climate emergency,” Mami Mizutori, the U.N. Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, told a news briefing. She called for governments to invest in early warning systems and implement disaster risk reduction strategies. Debarati Guha-Sapir of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the University of Louvain, Belgium, which provided data for the report, said: “If this level of growth in extreme weather events continues over the next twenty years, the future of mankind looks very bleak indeed. “Heatwaves are going to be our biggest challenge in the next 10 years, especially in the poor countries,” she said. Last month was the world’s hottest September on record, with unusually high temperatures recorded off Siberia, in the Middle East, and in parts of South America and Australia, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said. Global temperatures will continue to warm over the next five years, and may even temporarily rise to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in July. Scientists have set 1.5C (2.7 Fahrenheit) as the ceiling for avoiding catastrophic climate change.
Wildfires rage across South America, causing 'total destruction' - (5 videos, graphics) Wildfires have been tearing through parts of South America this year, particularly Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay, causing 'total destruction' in some parts of the continent, according to primatologist Martin Kowalewski, who measured the scale of fires in the number of caraya monkeys that have perished."Of the 20 family groups that we used to trace in the wild, each group consisting of seven or eight monkeys, at least five groups were burned alive," Kowalewski told the Guardian."Carpinchos (giant South American rodents), otters, two species of fox, guazú deer, yacaré caimans, turtles, snakes. Birds are better at escaping the fire, but that was before all the deforestation. Now they have nowhere to go because there is nowhere else. The forest is so fragmented that they have nowhere to nest." The main areas affected are the Gran Chaco forest that touches Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, the Pantanal wetlands shared by Brazil and Paraguay, and Argentina's Parana Delta wetlands. In Argentina, a dozen provinces are suffering the worst fires in decades, causing health issues in citizens from a number of smoke-invaded cities. Wildlife has also been destroyed, affecting endangered monkeys, jaguars, birds, and reptiles. Parts of the heavily deforested northern Gran Chaco are burning, as well as the eastern Parana Delta wetlands.In Paraguay, the congress has declared a national emergency on October 1 as more than 12 000 outbreaks were recorded, ripping through wide swaths of the Chaco dry forest. Omar Cabanellas, mayor of the Chaco town of General Bruguez, said a man died in "totally uncontrollable" fires that affected 155 000 ha (383 000 acres). In Bolivia, the land-locked country next to Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, a state of emergency was declared last month as flames ripped through 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres). More than 50 active fires have been reported, but the number of areas subject to smoke hazards was much greater due to drought and the use of fire to graze farmland. "The fires are advancing, and due to winds and high temperatures there is no other way to face this crisis," said Defense Minister Fernando Lopez. More than 600 families have been affected in the country.
Mount Kilimanjaro Is On Fire - Mount Kilimanjaro, which is Africa’s highest peak at nearly 6,000 metres, is on fire.The cause of the inferno which is believed to be occurring hundreds of metres above sea level is yet to be established.Eyewitnesses say efforts by local communities to extinguish the wild fires are underway but this is hampered by the altitude of the blaze. The flames could easily be seen from as far as Moshi town which is some tens of kilometers away from the mountain. According to the Kilimanjaro National Park (Kinapa), the fire broke out late in the afternoon on Sunday October 11. This was later confirmed by the Tanzania National Parks Communications manager Patrick Shelutete, who said the agency would issue a detailed statement later. Mountain climbers on the Marangu route who were at Kibo Hut said they saw the fire in shrubs that are close to Mandara. Given the nature of the vegetation, it could spread further if not contained.
PG&E equipment suspected as cause of deadly Zogg fire - Los Angeles Times --Pacific Gas & Electric Co. said California investigators were looking at its equipment as a possible cause of a fire that killed four people and burned more than 56,000 acres in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in the northern part of the state.The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has taken some of the utility’s equipment in its investigation of the Zogg fire in Shasta County, which is 95% contained, PG&E said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The utility has filed a report on the incident with state regulators.PG&E said in a statement that its report was preliminary and it was cooperating with investigators. Cal Fire has yet to determine the cause of the blaze. The company emerged from bankruptcy this summer, having agreed to pay $25.5 billion to settle damage claims from a series of deadly fires blamed on its equipment. It also pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter over the 2018 Camp fire in Northern California, the deadliest corporate crime in U.S. history. The California utility giant has vowed to overhaul its operations and put a greater focus on safety in an effort to avoid sparking another catastrophic fire. It remains on criminal probation overseen by a federal judge in San Francisco. The utility had cut power in the general area of the Zogg fire, but it hadn’t deenergized lines where the blaze is thought to have started. PG&E said its records indicated that its equipment recorded alarms and other activity related to a power line in an area where the Zogg fire began and near the time of its ignition. The company’s data don’t show what caused the problems on the line, PG&E said in its report.
Trump Admin Denies California's Request for Wildfire Aid - The Trump administration rejected California's federal relief request to help recover from six recent wildfires,The Los Angeles Times reported.California Governor Gavin Newsom's office requested a presidential disaster declaration for federal relief funds to help with cleanup efforts, including the Creek Fire, the largest in the state's history, CNN reported. The relief would have also assisted recovery efforts from the Bobcat Fire in Los Angeles County and the El Dorado Fire, which resulted from a gender-reveal party mishap."The request for a Major Presidential Disaster Declaration for early September fires has been denied by the federal administration," Brian Ferguson, a spokesperson for the Governor's Office of Emergency Services told CNN.Ferguson told the The Los Angeles Times that he could not provide a reason for the denial.Newsom wrote a letter to President Trump on September 28 asking for federal assistance, during which time the August Complex Fire continued to grow; it has since burned more than one million acres."The severity and magnitude of these fires continue to cause significant impacts to the State and to the affected local jurisdictions, such that the recovery efforts remain beyond the State's capabilities," ABC Newsreported Newsom wrote in September. "Many of the counties impacted by these wildfires are still recovering from previous devastating wildfires, storms, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic."The state plans to appeal the decision. In the meantime, "officials are looking for other avenues for federal assistance" to help wildfire victims, a spokesperson for the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services told ABC News.The state did not request a specific dollar amount, though Newsom did ballpark the figure around $346 million, ABC News reported. Ferguson, however, said the figure could easily pass that number.
Cameron Peak Fire grows to largest in Colorado's history - The Cameron Peak Fire started on August 13, 2020, on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests near Cameron Pass and Chambers Lake in Colorado. By October 14, it surpassed both the 2002 Hayman and 2020 Pine Gulch fires to become the largest wildfire in history completely contained within the State of Colorado.The cause of the fire is still under investigation.As of 16:30 UTC on August 15, the fire grew to 66 425 ha (164 140 acres) and is 56% contained. The estimated containment date is November 8.The Cameron Peak Fire has now surpassed the 2020 Pine Gulch Fire, which burned about 56 254 ha (139 007 acres), and the Hayman Fire, which burned through more than 55 846 ha (138 000 acres) in 2002 and destroyed 600 structures. On Wednesday, October 14, fire officials upgraded evacuations from voluntary to Mandatory for Lory State Park. "Residents and business occupants should evacuate the area immediately and as quickly as possible due to immediate and imminent danger. Do not delay leaving to gather belongings or make efforts to protect your home or business," they said in a statement. "Evacuating immediately not only supports your safety but also allows emergency crews better access to the area." The fire has so far damaged or destroyed 95 buildings, including 33 homes. It was extremely active today as a result of dry conditions and high winds.High winds will continue to push the fire through the crowns well into the evening hours. High rates of spread and extreme fire behavior are expected.Continued high rates of spread due to dry conditions and high winds is expected over the next 24 hours.
Colorado Battles Largest Wildfire in State History - For the second time this year, Colorado is battling the largest wildfire in state history.Strong winds pushed the Cameron Peak fire 17 miles to the east Tuesday and Wednesday, Wildfire Today reported. It burned more than 20,000 acres in a single day, swelling to 158,300 acres by 7:30 p.m. Wednesday and placing at least nine new areas under evacuation orders, the Fort Collins Coloradoan reported. "This really was almost an epic day for doing evacuations and again, for everybody that's been moved, I know it's extremely difficult," officials said Wednesday night, as CBS4 Denver reported. "We do know that we lost structures today and for anybody who is impacted, you know, our heart goes out to you." One family lost two cabins they owned in the Buckhorn Canyon area. .. Despite these individual tragedies, Larimer County Sheriff Justin Smith said the day could have been even worse."We have no reported injuries, no deaths, a lot fewer structures were impacted that we truly anticipated based on what we saw with that said, there's certainly a lot of folks that got hit," he said, as Colorado Public Radio reported. The Cameron Peak fire has been burning since Aug. 13 in the Arapahoe and Roosevelt National Forest. It has persisted despite a snowstorm in early September and more snow on Sunday, fueled by high winds anddrought. It had already destroyed or damaged 99 structures before exploding Tuesday, and officials said conditions were still too dangerous to assess the total number of buildings impacted in the last 24 hours. It is now 56 percent contained and more than 1,000 people are fighting it.The fire is burning to the west of Fort Collins, but Smith said he did not think the flames would reach that more populous area or the nearby city of Loveland because they are protected by bodies of water and a lack of the heavy timber that feeds the flames.The two largest fires in Colorado history both ignited this year. The Cameron Peak fire unseated the Pine Gulch fire, which burned 139,007 acres over the summer and held the record for only 48 days.The ten largest fires in Colorado history all took place in the last 20 years, and seven took place in the last 10, according to figures reported by the Fort Collins Coloradoan. As of August, 2020 was Colorado's third driest year on record and twelfth warmest, according to Colorado Public Radio. Almost a fourth of the state is experiencing extreme drought.
Climate change could shift Pennsylvania’s wildfire season | StateImpact Pennsylvania - Wildfires aggravated by the effects of climate change have been raging across the western United States for weeks. The commonwealth is starting to see changes in its fire season as well. Data from the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources shows Pennsylvania had 686 fires on average each year between 2015 and 2019. Most of the state’s fires are small and are extinguished quickly. They also typically happen in the spring. But Mike Kern, Chief of Forest Fire Protection under DCNR, said this year they saw an unusually high number of fires in February — 161 this year compared to 11 a year earlier. “It’s pretty rare,” he said. “Usually in February we have snow on the ground or it’s cold enough, there’s not a lot of fires. Anytime the vegetation here is dormant and it’s dry enough, we can have fires.” Scientists expect Pennsylvania’s climate to get warmer and wetter because of climate change. Kern said that might make fires more common in different seasons. He said it only takes a few degrees for a snowstorm to turn to rain. In that case, some rain will soak into the ground, some will dry up, and dormant vegetation will be susceptible to fires. The Wolf Administration has warned of a heightened wildfire risk in Pennsylvania this fall. Precipitation totals from the National Weather Service show a wide area of central Pennsylvania with below-average rainfall this year.DCNR is responsible for only two million of the state’s 17 million forested acres. Kern said the best prevention tool the state has is public education. More than 95 percent of Pennsylvania’s wildfires are caused by people. The most common cause of Pennsylvania’s wildfires is debris burning.
What We Can Learn From Indigenous Traditions - Indigenous people around the world have lived in concert with nature for centuries, practicing responsible land management, regenerative farming practices and water conservation. From the Americas to the Amazon to Australia, culturally significant controlled burns have been an integral part of proactive fire management that prevents forest fires from spreading.In one example, Karuk tribal traditions in Northern California use frequent, low-intensity fires to help restore and maintain the region's flora and fauna, according to researchers in The Conversation. More specifically, the fires help restore grassland for elk and for making basketry. Meanwhile, smoke from summer fires provides cool temperatures for river fish."[Cultural burning] links back to the tribal philosophy of fire as medicine," Frank Kanawha Lake, a research ecologist with the USDA Forest Service, firefighter and Karuk descendent, told the The History Channel. "When you prescribe it, you're getting the right dose to maintain the abundance of productivity of all ecosystem services to support the ecology in your culture."Aboriginal Australians monitor controlled fires to prevent them from damaging seedlings or soil nutrients. They also avoid burning logs or trees that house insects and animals. Furthermore, the controlled burns help to restore growth and strengthen ecosystems, Yes! Magazine reported. Over in the Amazon, the Kuikuro people in the Xingu Indigenous Territory use an elaborate system of ditches, dikes and roads to create a break that controls the spread of wildfires, according to The New York Times.
Extreme drought drains Paraguay River to its lowest level in 50 years - The Paraguay River is now on its lowest level in 50 years as the region is reeling from months of extreme drought. The drop in water levels slowed down cargo vessel traffic, resulting in cost overruns for imported goods and a loss of 250 million dollars. The river has been depleted due to a lack of rainfall in the Pantanal area of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The water flows from that area, running through Bolivia and Argentina. Around 85 percent of Paraguay's foreign trade is conducted through the river. The crisis has led to major cost overruns for the transport of imported goods such as fuel, fertilizer, and food, as the water depletion slowed down cargo vessel traffic. The crisis has also exposed the precariousness of Paraguay’s access to drinking water, the Associated Press (AP) noted. Nery Giménez, president of the Paraguayan Importers Center, told the AP that the country has never had a situation as serious as this one. "We have never had a situation as serious as the one we are experiencing now. We are approaching the end of the year, a time when more products must enter." Gimenez added that the government had announced the lifting of pandemic-related lockdown, but the river crisis is threatening the resurgence of economic activity.
La Niña to Intensify U.S. Drought This Winter, NOAA Predicts - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a mild winter for most of the U.S. Thursday, forecasting that the drought that now covers nearly half the country will get worse, according to The New York Times.NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its winter outlook for 2020-2021 Thursday and predicted that much of the South and Southwest will remain dry this winter, while areas in the Pacific Northwest and the Upper Plains will have the opposite problem — they will have a wetter than average winter, as CNN reported.That means that the current drought that blankets just under 47 percent of the continental U.S. will only get worse during the months that usually bring relief. The country is currently in its most widespread drought since 2013.NOAA's prediction model said that this year's La Niña will drive warmer and drier weather through the southern part of the country this winter. This zone includes areas where wildfires are currently burning, like Southern California and Colorado."With La Niña well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in a news release, as The Washington Post reported. The model splits the lower 48 states into three stripes. One massive stripe runs coast-to-coast from Southern California to North Carolina. It will see a dry winter. A band that encompasses Oregon and Washington and runs along the northern part of the country to Michigan will see a wet winter. The rest of the country will see fairly normal conditions, as the AP reported.
Droughts That Start Over the Ocean? They’re Often Worse Than Those That Form Over Land - Droughts usually evoke visions of cracked earth, withered crops, dried-up rivers and dust storms. But droughts can also form over oceans, and when they then move ashore they are often more intense and longer-lasting than purely land-born dry spells.A Sept. 21 study published in the journal Water Resources Research found that, of all the droughts that affected land areas globally from 1981 to 2018, about 1 in 6 started over water and moved onto land, with a particularly high frequency along the West Coast of North America, said senior study author Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford climate researcher."Because they usually take a number of months to migrate onto land, there is a potential that tracking moisture deficits over the ocean could provide advance warning to help protect against at least some of the most severe droughts," he said, adding that the landfalling droughts, as those that move from the ocean to terra firma are known, grow three times as quickly as land-only droughts. The research zoomed in on West Coast landfalling droughts and linked them with Pacific Ocean weather patterns that are changing in a warming world. Those dry spells happen when large areas of stable air persist much longer than normal off the West Coast. That pattern lingered so long in the period from 2012 to 2017 that scientists named it the "ridiculously resilient ridge," and a 2016 studyshowed that global warming made that pattern more likely. The long drought dried forests and brush, killing millions of trees, and partly setting the stage for the 2020 siege of wildfires.Currently, more than half the West—nearly 1 million square miles—is experiencing acute drought conditions, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. The epicenter is the Southwest, where drought conditions have mostly prevailed since about 2000, the start of a megadrought that could last for decades, according to recent research. The current Western drought could soon rise to a crisis level, with federal water managers warning that Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the two key Colorado River reservoirs, may drop to levels that could result in economically damaging cuts to water allocations in the Southwest and California. In the last four decades, severe droughts caused $252.7 billion in economic losses and damage in the United States, about 14 percent of the total cost of climate disasters in that span. Only hurricanes, at $954.4 billion, and severe storms, at $268.4 billion, have caused more damage.
Study finds ocean warming has killed half the coral in Great Barrier Reef - A recent study found that ocean warming has killed half of the coral in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B on Wednesday London time, involved four Australian researchers who counted coral abundance over three decades starting in 1995. The researchers discovered that “the abundance of large colonies on the crest” fell by up to 98 percent, while there was a minor 25-percent increase in coral on the southern slope. The unusually warm ocean temperatures affected coral of all sizes, almost all species and in shallow and deeper weather, Terry Hughes, a co-author, told The Washington Post. Hughes, a professor at the ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies in Queensland, said branching and table-shaped corals were the “worst affected” during record-high temperatures in 2016 and 2017. “We expect this decline to continue,” Hughes said, citing the warming caused by humans. “The only effective way to improve the outcome for coral reefs is global action on greenhouse gasses. If global temperatures rise to 3 or 4 [degrees Celsius], the reef will be unrecognizable, so there is no time to lose.” Andreas Dietzel, another co-author and professor at the ARC Center, told the Post that the coral recovering rates are going “very slowly” and are not keeping up with the destruction. “Corals are tremendously resilient because of their capacity to produce millions of babies but they/we desperately need a break from disturbances,” Dietzel said. Second GOP senator attends Barrett hearings in person after COVID-19... Majorities in four battleground states support ObamaCare: poll Gabby Ahmadia, the director of ocean science at the World Wildlife Fund, told the newspaper that some coral are establishing a resistance to warming, providing some hope. But she noted, “a lot of people say 90 percent of coral loss will happen by 2050.”
Earth breaks September heat record, may reach warmest year - Earth sweltered to a record hot September last month, with U.S. climate officials saying there’s nearly a two-to-one chance that 2020 will end up as the globe’s hottest year on record. Boosted by human-caused climate change, global temperatures averaged 60.75 degrees (15.97 Celsius) last month, edging out 2015 and 2016 for the hottest September in 141 years of recordkeeping, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday. That’s 1.75 degrees (0.97 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average. This record was driven by high heat in Europe, Northern Asia, Russia and much of the Southern Hemisphere, said NOAA climatologist Ahira Sanchez-Lugo. California and Oregon had their hottest Septembers on record. Earth has had 44 straight Septembers where it has been warmer than the 20th century average and 429 straight months without a cooler than normal month, according to NOAA. The hottest seven Septembers on record have been the last seven. That means “that no millennial or even parts of Gen-X has lived through a cooler than normal September,” said North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello, herself a millennial. What’s happening is a combination of global warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas and natural variability, Sanchez-Lugo said. But the biggest factor is the human-caused warming, she and Dello said. The globe set this record despite a La Nina, which is a cooling of parts of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns and usually slightly lowers temperatures. The first nine months of 2020 are the second warmest on record, a shade behind 2016 when there was a strong warming El Nino. But Sanchez-Lugo said her office’s calculations show that there’s a 64.7% chance that 2020 will pass 2016 in the last three months to take the title as the warmest year on record. And if it doesn’t make it, she said it’ll easily be in the top three, probably top two.
'The Arctic Ocean Is Dying': Grim Conclusion as Biggest North Pole Mission Returns -- The largest Arctic research expedition in history returned to Germany Monday after 13 months in the Arctic, including several months with its ship deliberately trapped by sea ice, according to The New York Times.The mission aboard the German Alfred Wegener Institute's Polarstern ship spent the year gathering vital information that would give scientists a window into the future of the Arctic during the climate crisis."We witnessed how the Arctic ocean is dying," said Markus Rex, the mission's leader, to Agence-France Presse (AFP). "We saw this process right outside our windows, or when we walked on the brittle ice." The team aboard the Polarstern comprised more than 300 hundred scientists from 20 countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China. According to Rex, the dramatic consequences of a warming planet were evident in an area he described as "the epicenter of climate change," as AFP reported. "We basically achieved everything we set out to do," Rex told The Associated Press (AP) by satellite phone as the expedition left the polar circle last week. "We conducted measurements for a whole year with just a short break." The trip to measure the ice and gauge conditions in one of the planet's harshest environments cost $177 million, according to the AP, and the mission almost had to be abandoned months early when the coronavirus was detected on the mission. And yet, the expedition was able to stay the course and complete its research. "We're bringing back a trove of data, along with countless samples of ice cores, snow and water," The observations of the crew reflect a grim future for the Arctic. Rex warned that if the current warming trend the planet is on continues, then soon the Arctic will see ice-free summer. He noted that in some areas that were once covered in ice, the crew was able to sail through open water stretching out as far as the eye could see, as AFP reported. "At the North Pole itself, we found badly eroded, melted, thin and brittle ice," said Rex, according to AFP. "We went above and beyond the data collection we set out to do," said Webster, according to the AP. The crew returned with 150 terabytes of data and more than 1,000 ice samples.
Maui Has Begun the Process of Managed Retreat. It Wants Big Oil to Pay the Cost of Sea Level Rise. - With nearly 300 miles of coastline, the Hawaiian islands that make up Maui County face the threat of sea level rise from all sides. It's that assault that has formed the foundation of a lawsuit Maui filed this week against 20 fossil fuel companies seeking compensation for the rising costs of climate change.The lawsuit alleges that the companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and ConocoPhillips, knew their products produced warming greenhouse gases that threatened the planet but hid those dangers from Maui's people and businesses to maximize corporate profits."Defendants have known for more than 50 years that greenhouse gas pollution from their fossil fuel products would have significant adverse impacts on the Earth's climate and sea levels," the lawsuit said. "Instead of warning of those known consequences ... defendants concealed the dangers, promoted false and misleading information, sought to undermine public support for greenhouse gas regulation, and engaged in massive campaigns to promote the ever-increasing use of their products at ever-greater volumes." Roadways, parks, infrastructure and buildings that hug the coastline are vulnerable to billions of dollars in damages from sea level rise caused by climate change, the lawsuit said. Some of Maui's most scenic and iconic highways are at risk, including a stretch of Honoapiilani Highway from Papalaua State Wayside Park to the Pali side of the town of Lahaina. Maui County, which consists of the islands of Maui, Lanai, most of Molokai and two uninhabited islands, already has begun working on a plan for managed retreat and new infrastructure to protect communities from the impacts of rising sea levels. Fossil fuel companies could have taken steps to reduce damage or warn people about the danger from continued use of oil and gas products that harm the environment, the lawsuit said. "It might be a David vs. Goliath case, but someone has to take a stand and oil companies need to pay for the damage they knowingly caused," Maui Mayor Michael Victorino said in a prepared statement. "Our 'rock' is science, which clearly shows the impacts of burning fossil fuels have led to sea level rise and other environmental impacts that will get worse, perhaps much worse, in the years ahead."
Emissions of Nitrous Oxide, a Climate Super-Pollutant, Are Rising Fast on a Worst-Case Trajectory - Emissions of nitrous oxide, a climate super-pollutant hundreds of times more potent than carbon dioxide, are rising faster than previously thought—at a rate that not only threatens international targets to limit global warming, but is consistent with a worst-case trajectory for climate change, a new study suggests. The findings, reported Wednesday in the journal Nature, underscore the need for strong climate policies that do not focus solely on carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas.The study, arguably the most comprehensive assessment of the global nitrogen cycle ever conducted, found that nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions caused by human activities have increased by 30 percent since 1980. Those emissions, more than two-thirds of which come from agriculture, account for nearly half of all nitrous oxide released over the past decade, with the rest coming from natural ecosystems. Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane, and is responsible for roughly 7 percent of global warming since preindustrial times. It is nearly 300 times more potent at warming the planet than carbon dioxide, which means that even small sources of emissions can have an outsized impact on the climate. Nitrous oxide is also the largest contributor to atmospheric ozone depletion that is not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, an international agreement developed in the 1980s to phase out ozone depleting chemicals through mandatory emissions reductions. Some policy experts say the agreement should now be extended to include nitrous oxide. Emissions reported in the current study are in line with, or slightly higher than, a "worst case" emissions scenario by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Such a scenario assumes that growth in fossil fuel power production and the use of nitrogen-based fertilizer, the driving force in human-caused nitrous oxide emissions, continue unabated. Under the worst case scenario, the world's average temperature would rise by approximately 4.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, far higher than the limit of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius of warming targeted in the Paris climate agreement. "Current nitrous oxide emissions are not tenable," "The numbers are very large, and the increases are very rapid."
Methane Emissions Soar 32% Despite Lockdowns and Green Pledges - The first eight months of the year saw global methane emissions rise by 32 percent, according to Paris-based data firm Karryos, as Reuters reported.The rise in the harmful greenhouse gas is notable because it happened during worldwide lockdowns that led to drops in carbon emissions. It also happened despite pledges from the oil and gas sector to limit their carbon emissions.Karryos, which analyzed satellite data to calculate the extent of methane emissions, says there are roughly 100 methane leaks happening around the world at any given moment."Such increases in methane emissions are concerning and in stark contradiction to the direction set in theParis agreement," said Antoine Rostand, president of Kayrros, as The Washington Post reported. "Despite much talk of climate action by energy industry stakeholders, global methane emissions continue to increase steeply."According to Karryos' data, in some methane hotspots, emissions rose 40 percent higher than over the same time frame in 2019. Those areas were Algeria, Russia and Turkmenistan. In addition to those three countries, the U.S., Iraq and Iran were the three largest methane emitters in the first two-thirds of 2020, as The Washington Post reported.Methane does not stick around the atmosphere as long as carbon dioxide, but it is a far more potent gas in the short term. In fact, according to Climate Change News, methane's impact on the heating of the planet is 84 times higher than CO2 over its first 20 years.The technology to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas industry is already available. According to theInternational Energy Agency, if the industry used current technology, it could lower its methane emissions by three-fourths in the next decade, as Climate Change News reported.Rostand said the largest leak that Karryos was able to detect was in Iraq, which released 400 tons per hour. The leak extended 150 miles into Saudi Arabia. In the U.S., the largest leak emitted 150 tons of methane per hour, which is equivalent to 10 coal-fired plants running at maximum capacity, as The Washington Post reported."We see from the sky, not on the ground, but what we are observing is the wrong trend. We should have expected decreases ... but that has not been the case," Rostand told the oil and gas news site Upstream.Fixing methane gas leaks is expensive and requires significant equipment upgrades, which the industry has been slow to invest in as its profits have plummeted in 2020 due to decreasing demand. "It's a pure consequence of cost cutting," Rostand said, as Reuters reported.
Carbon dioxide emissions may not surpass 2019 levels until 2027: analysis - Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase after the pandemic, but may not exceed 2019 levels until 2027, according to a projection from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Demand for energy has decreased since the start of the pandemic for reasons including reduced air and vehicle travel. The IEA, which pushes for a “sustainable energy future,” projects a 7 percent drop in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 amid reductions in fossil fuel use. The analysis predicted a decline in annual CO2 emissions to where they were a decade ago. However, it says there “may not have been” a similar fall in emissions of methane, a more powerful greenhouse gas. Under an IEA model based on today’s current energy policies in which the pandemic comes under control in 2021, the global economy will return to its pre-pandemic level in 2021 and energy demand will return by early 2023, but emissions won’t exceed 2019 levels until 2027. Energy demand will recover faster than the rate of emissions because renewables will make up a greater share of the market, while the use of coal will decline, according to the model. In 2020, the report estimates that global energy demand will drop by 5 percent and energy investment will drop by 18 percent. Specifically, demand for oil is expected to drop 8 percent while coal use is expected to drop 7 percent. Natural gas demand is slated to drop 3 percent while renewables grow slightly. In the long term, the report projects that under this scenario coal will remain about 8 percent lower than pre-coronavirus levels through 2030, while oil demand is expected to recover by 2023 but plateau after 2030. It projects that natural gas will increase by 14 percent over 2019 levels by 2030.
Investors Worth $5 Trillion Set Major Emissions Reduction Targets -Thirty of the world's largest investors, who together control $5 trillion in assets, have pledged to cut thegreenhouse gas emissions of their portfolios by as much as 29 percent in five years.The investors, who include Allianz, the Church of England and the California Public Employees' Retirement System, are all part of the UN convened Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance. The group formed in 2019 with the goal of reducing the emissions of their investment portfolios to net zero by 2050 and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. On the road to that goal, the group announced their 2025 Target Setting Protocol Tuesday, which includes the goal to reduce emissions across members' portfolios by 16 to 29 percent of 2019 levels by 2025."According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, every year of postponed emissions peak means that deeper and faster cuts will be required," UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative leader Eric Usher said in apress release. "The Target-Setting Protocol represents world-leading progress on the required emissions reductions from some of the biggest investors in the world."To reach their goal, the investors will pinpoint the 20 companies most responsible for their portfolios' emissions, The Guardian explained. They will also set specific targets for highly emitting sectors like oil and gas, transport and utilities.Some financial institutions have acted on the climate crisis by divesting entirely from certain companies or refusing to fund certain ventures. For example, Norway's largest hedge fund divested in August from companies that lobby against climate action or make more than five percent of their revenue from coal or oil sands. The Net-Zero Asset Owners Alliance, however, takes a different approach, seeking instead to engage with the companies it invests in in order to push the overall economy towards a just transition to renewable energy."Although decarbonization of portfolios could be easily achieved by selling carbon intensive investments, it is highly questionable if such actions alone would have a positive impact on the real economy," the group explained in the press release. "Additionally, it might undermine Alliance members ability to engage with these [companies] to effect reductions in the real economy."Part of that engagement means encouraging companies to share regular reports on their climate actions and to craft plans to green their business, according to The Guardian. The alliance itself will also release yearly reports, and plans to grow its membership to 200 or the assets under its control to $25 trillion."Alliance members start out by changing themselves and then reach out to various companies to work on the change of their businesses," Alliance Chair Günther Thallinger, who serves on the board of management for Allianz SE, said in the press release. "Reaching net-zero is not simply reducing emissions and carrying on with the business models of today. There are profound changes and opportunities that will come from the net-zero economy, we see new business opportunities and strong wins for those who are ready to lead."
CLIMATE: FERC takes 'landmark action' on carbon pricing -- Thursday, October 15, 2020 -- A Republican-led Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a proposed policy statement today saying the panel has the authority and willingness to consider potential grid operators' requests to incorporate a carbon tax into its rate structures.The move — led by Republican FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee and Democratic Commissioner Richard Glick — marks a milestone in the commission's treatment of state-led, market-based policies that address carbon emissions stemming from the electric sector."If these questions were easily answered, we'd have reached a solution already, but I don't believe we can turn a blind eye or keep kicking the can down the road just because it's the easy way out," Chatterjee said. "So I'm proud of the landmark action we're taking today at FERC to issue this first-of-its-kind, bipartisan proposed policy statement on carbon pricing," he said.In effect, the proposed statement gives reassurance to states that the commission would not reject their carbon fee rate structure proposals out of hand, Chatterjee said.The statement follows a Sept. 30 technical conference where the vast majority of participants agreed that FERC had the authority, under Section 205 of the Federal Power Act, to address carbon pricing proposals from regional transmission organizations and independent system operators (Energywire, Oct. 1).FERC held the technical conference following a request from advocates and companies, including clean energy groups like the Advanced Energy Economy, the American Council on Renewable Energy and the Natural Gas Supply Association, and utilities like NextEra Energy Inc. and LS Power (Energywire, April 15).Chatterjee emphasized today that the proposed policy statement did not indicate that FERC would take a proactive approach to making a nationwide carbon fee or any other measure to address emissions. "I may sound like a broken record here, but I'll say it again: The [Federal Power Act] does not give us authority to act as an environmental regulator," Chatterjee said. "We have neither the expertise nor the authority to drive emissions policy in this space. So that is not the objective here today."
Barrett deflects senators' questions on climate change --Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett refused to say whether she accepts the science of climate change, saying she lacks the expertise to know for sure and calling it a topic too controversial to get into. On Wednesday, pressed at her confirmation hearing by Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Barrett framed acknowledgment of manmade climate change as a matter of policy, not science. Barrett said Harris, the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee as well as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, was trying to get her to state an opinion “on a very contentious matter of public debate, and I will not do that.” Barrett was responding to a series of questions from Harris, including whether she thinks the novel coronavirus is infectious, whether smoking causes cancer and whether “climate change is happening and it’s threatening the air we breathe and the water we drink.” The federal appeals court judge responded that she does think coronavirus is infectious and smoking causes cancer. She rebuffed Harris on the climate change question, however, for seeking to “solicit an opinion” on a “matter of public policy, especially one that is politically controversial.” The exchange occurred during the committee’s hearing on Barrett’s nomination to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. Scientists say climate change is a matter of established fact and that the damage is mostly caused by people burning oil, gas and coal. Climate experts, including federal scientists in the Trump administration, say increasingly fierce wildfires, hurricanes and other natural disasters point to the urgency of global warming.
Amy Coney Barrett Says She Has No 'Firm Views' On Climate Change - Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett stood up again for not standing up when asked about climate change at her confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday. During a leading line of questioning from Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) aimed at showing that Barrett has “thought about the world,” as he phrased it, she said she did not have a personal stance on climate change. “Do you have some opinions on climate change that you’ve thought about?” Kennedy asked her. “You know, I’m certainly not a scientist,” President Donald Trump’s nominee responded. After Kennedy encouraged her to elaborate, she said: “I mean, I’ve read things about climate change. I would not say that I have firm views on it.” Barrett’s line that’s she’s “not a scientist” has been a common refrain among climate-denying Republican lawmakers for years. President Barack Obama called out the phrase in his 2015 State of the Union speech, saying you don’t need to be a scientist to grasp that “the best scientists in the world are all telling us that our activities are changing the climate.” Barrett saying she doesn’t have firm views on climate change ― something that nearly every scientist says people should view as the greatest threat to humankind ― seems to indicate that, if she’s confirmed, environmental groups challenging the Trump administration’s policies will have one less friend on the Supreme Court. Little has been known about how Barrett may rule on environmental issues. That’s in part because she’s spent most of her career teaching law, not practicing it. She was not asked about climate change during her 2017 nomination hearing for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit.
ACTIVISM: Hundreds of law students snub top firm over climate -- Thursday, October 15, 2020 --Hundreds of law students pledged to boycott employment at one of the nation's most prestigious law firms to protest lawyers who they say are exacerbating climate change by representing oil companies.
Mitsubishi Eyes Great Lakes for Offshore Wind Development - Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. continues to explore the possibility of building an offshore wind project in Lake Erie to deliver power for New York state, as development zones off the Atlantic Coast remain in limited supply. Diamond Offshore Wind, a unit of Mitsubishi Corp., stirred up local opposition last year after submitting an interconnection request with New York’s grid operator for potential capacity in eastern Lake Erie. The developer still believes offshore wind turbines are a good solution for the Great Lakes region as states seek more renewable power and clean energy jobs, CEO Chris Wissemann told GTM. Diamond Offshore Wind was encouraged by a white paper from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority released this summer, looking at the state’s options for meeting its 70 percent renewable energy target for 2030. In the white paper (PDF), NYSERDA called for a feasibility study to “explore and confirm” the potential benefits of offshore wind in the Great Lakes. At this stage, Diamond still does not have a specific project under development in Lake Erie. “We’re watching earnestly to see if New York, through this feasibility study, concludes that projects are worthwhile in the Great Lakes,” Wissemann said. “If so, and if that ultimately turns into a solicitation in the next year or two, we’d be keenly interested in participating.”
JEA plan to raise powerlines over river raises eyebrows – Another costly plan by the JEA is coming under fire after Florida Times-Union reporter Christopher Hong reported the city-owned utility is looking at plans to raise high-voltage power lines crossing the St John’s River to allow bigger ships to access the port of Jacksonville.Hong also reported there is confusion as to who suggested the projected and if it is actually needed.News4Jax verified the information in the Times-Union report and has received the documents which show that the project -- yet to be approved -- could cost JEA electric ratepayers between $29 million and $96 million.The power-line project has raised many questions since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers determined that raising the power lines is not necessary as part of the current $484-million harbor-deepening project, also to accommodate the larger ships trying to access the Jacksonville Port Authority’s Blount Island docks.The new JEA management team was not aware of any request by the Army Corps to raise the power lines and it has not been discussed at any recent board meetings. The project was being discussed by the former management of JEA.
OUC to wipe out carbon emissions by switching from coal to natural gas, solar energy - - Orlando’s landmark power plants will cease burning coal by 2027 and switch to natural gas as an early step in a sweeping plan by the city’s utility for a surge in solar energy and cuts in carbon emissions of 50 percent by 2030 and entirely by 2050.“I think we have a very good balanced approached,” said Orlando Utilities Commission’s general manager, Clint Bullock. “We are municipal utility and we trying to keep in mind the needs of our community.” OUC has taken nearly two years and a $1 million study to respond in detail to a call by Orlando’s mayor and council for the city to have converted to 100 percent “clean, renewable energy” by the 2050. The utility will consider embracing some nuclear power, depending on the industry’s development of technology for small, modular units. A small portion of fossil-fuel energy, about 7 percent, will continue into 2050 to maintain reliability but would be offset by carbon-reduction measures. The vast majority of power is to flow from solar plants, the utility said.
Energy Demand to Receive a Work-From-Home Boost This Winter - “Get yours before they go,” says the headline on a home improvement article dedicated to the hottest housing trends. The must-have item? A patio heater. With winter in the northern hemisphere fast approaching, the Covid-19 pandemic is prompting families to buy outdoor heaters. Restaurants and bars are also snapping them up to provide al fresco dining and drinking, while Google searches for “patio heating” have jumped to a record high. These heaters rely on electricity or liquefied petroleum gas, like propane. Residential energy demand is set to increase in the coming months as millions of people in Europe, Asia and North America spend more time at home -- either working, studying or relaxing on their patios. With many offices still open, commercial use should remain steady, creating a so-called ‘double-heating effect’ that could lead to more use of everything from kerosene to natural gas. Commodity traders are also beginning to bet on a colder-than-normal winter, due to the formation of a La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean. That -- combined with the impact of the coronavirus -- may mean that demand for some energy products could be surprisingly strong. “Weather agencies are forecasting a cold start to the 2020–21 winter,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “Demand for LPG, kerosene, heating oil and low-sulfur fuel oil could all be boosted by varying degrees.” Heating fuels trading above pre-Covid levels as colder winter weather seen “Weather agencies are forecasting a cold start to the 2020–21 winter,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “Demand for LPG, kerosene, heating oil and low-sulfur fuel oil could all be boosted by varying degrees.” The likelihood of higher-than-usual demand has already started to filter through to the market:
- U.S. spot propane prices rose to the highest level this year last week
- The price of natural gas, used to heat homes or produce electricity, has jumped in Asia and Europe to the highest since before the virus
- Double heating could add 5% to gas demand for Europe, said James Huckstepp, manager for EMEA gas analytics at S&P Global Platts
- Meanwhile, the U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark rallied to a 19-month high earlier this week amid optimism for colder temperatures
- Asian kerosene margins have recovered to $1 a barrel from as low as minus $2 in early September amid an uptick in demand from Japan, where the fuel is used for heating households
- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expects an increase in U.S. heating oil consumption
The La Nina pattern is expected to bring below-average temperatures to North Asia, which is home to the biggest LNG importers, along with western Canada, parts of the northern U.S. and southern Europe, according to Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at the Weather Company. Total winter natural gas demand rose by a third from the previous year due to the last major La Nina in 2010-2011, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a note this month. A colder winter will also likely boost thermal coal consumption in China, while traders say that Japanese buyers have been stockpiling kerosene.
Coronavirus response can 'reshape the future of energy,' IEA says in annual report - The world's response to Covid-19 can "reshape the future of energy" for years to come, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday in its annual World Energy Outlook report.The IEA report underscored that most important of all is how the crisis will ultimately affect the transition to clean energy.The report noted that while the clean energy transition continues to gain momentum, faster and bolder structural changes are needed if the world is to reach net-zero carbon emissions."The Covid-19 crisis has caused more disruption than any other event in recent history, leaving scars that will last for years to come," the Paris-based agency said in a statement. "Covid-19 unleased a crisis of exceptional ferocity on countries around the world ...The crisis is still unfolding today — and its consequences for the world's energy future remain highly uncertain."Going forward, IEA believes that renewables will take "starring roles," and solar will take "center stage," driven by supportive government policies and declining costs."I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets," said Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director. "Based on today's policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022."On the other hand, IEA forecasts that coal demand will not return to pre-coronavirus levels, and that it will account for less than 20% of energy consumption by 2040, for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. Oil will remain "vulnerable to the major economic uncertainties resulting from the pandemic," with demand starting to decline after 2030, the agency said.Due to the ongoing impacts of Covid-19, the IEA expects global energy demand to fall by 5% in 2020, with oil and coal consumption falling 8% and 7%, respectively. Natural gas demand is expected to decline by 3% this year — the largest decline since it became a major source of fuel in the 1930s — but the agency sees an uptick in demand over the next decade driven by growth from emerging economies. The outlook has been revised slightly since April, when the agency predicted energy demand could drop 6% in 2020.
Solar the new 'king of electricity' as renewables make up bigger slice of supply: IEA (Reuters) - Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency said, with renewables seen accounting for 80% of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions. In its annual World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the IEA said in its central scenario - which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced - renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025. The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30% in 2030 from 8% in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12% a year. “I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “Based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.” Maturing technology and support mechanisms have cut financing costs for major solar PV projects, the IEA said, helping to bring down output costs overall. Solar PV is now cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, it said. Power generation from renewables is the only major source of energy that continued to grow in 2020, the Paris-based agency added.
Trump Moves to Increase Solar Import Tariffs, Kill Bifacial Exemption - A presidential proclamation released by the White House this weekend would increase tariffs on imported solar cells and modules in the final currently planned year of the tariffs and eliminate an exemption for two-sided solar panels, which the administration argued has “impaired the effectiveness” of the tariffs. Trump also directed the U.S. Trade Representative to assess whether the duties, established in 2018 under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act, should be extended. The tariffs are currently set to expire in 2022.The American solar industry has thus far managed to live with the challenges brought by the solar tariffs. Though the tariffs, which began at 30 percent in 2018, made some imported panels more expensive, large-scale solar installations have continued to climb since they were established. Several manufacturers also set up shop in the U.S., encouraged by the potential to sell products to developers tariff-free.But increasing the tariffs from 15 to 18 percent in 2021 and extending their duration could pose difficulties for domestic solar installers as the coronavirus pandemic restrains the industry’s overall growth. Eliminating the exemption for bifacial solar panels — which the Trump administration hasrepeatedly tried to do — may have more significant ramifications. Developers have increasingly come to rely on bifacial modules due to their higher efficiency and only marginally higher costs.The Trump administration previously tried to revoke its bifacial exclusion through the U.S. Trade Representative but was rebuffed by the United States Court of International Trade after challenges were lodged by several solar players, including Invenergy and the Solar Energy Industries Association. Under the presidential proclamation, the exclusion would disappear 15 days from the order’s publication on Oct. 10, though the move is still open to legal challenge. The proclamation comes just weeks ahead of the 2020 election, but Trump’s move may have a lasting impact even if his reelection bid is unsuccessful. Democratic candidate Joe Biden has tied clean energy to economic recovery amid the pandemic and set a target for the United States to reach 100 percent clean electricity by 2035, a goal that would rely significantly on a large-scale build-out of solar. Depending on the terms of a possible tariff extension from the U.S. Trade Representative, however, Biden may have limited authority to pull back solar tariffs (it’s also not certain that a Democratic presidential administration would oppose solar tariffs).
Lawsuit filed to halt DeWitt County wind farm - herald-review.com— A lawsuit opposing development of an industrial wind complex in northwest DeWitt County has been filed on behalf of 69 constituents against the DeWitt County Board and Enel Energy, owner of Alta Farms II.“This was something we wanted to avoid, but at this point, we have no choice,” said Olivia Klemm, one of the opponents of the wind farm. “We are not done fighting.”In July, the county board voted 6-5 to approve a special use permit for Enel Energy, owner of Alta Farms II, to build 66 wind turbines, up to 599 feet tall on 12,000 acres in DeWitt County. A group of citizens has been fighting the project for several years. The county board’s two advisory boards, the Regional Planning Commission and the Zoning Board of Appeals, had been presented with 54 hours of testimony from residents and experts. Both of these committees voted not to recommend approval of the special use permit application, Klemm added.“Most of the DeWitt County Board members who voted for the special use permit did not attend the hearings where sentiment and evidence against the project were presented,” she said. “The County Board disregarded these recommendations by their advisory boards, failed to comply with local ordinances and ignored overwhelming community opposition to the wind turbine project,” said Teri Wilson, a DeWitt County resident who owns a home that will be surrounded by the industrial turbines if the project is built.
FERC's Glick blasts fellow commissioners for intruding on New York's resource mix decisions -The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Wednesday removed an exemption that had allowed some demand response resources to bid into the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) capacity market below generation offer floors. In a 2-1 decision, the commission determined that payments received under the Commercial System Distribution Load Relief Programs (CSRP) submitted by the ISO "do not qualify for exclusion from the calculation of [Special Case Resources] (SCR) offer floors." FERC's decision means these demand response resources, which are compensated by New York distribution utilities for their grid services, will have to bid in at a higher price and be less competitive. Commissioner Richard Glick dissented from the decision, writing that it "perverts buyer-side market power mitigation into a series of unnecessary and unreasoned obstacles to New York's efforts to shape the resource mix."For clean energy advocates, FERC's decision is the most recent move by federal regulators to block the effects of state resource decision-making. Other power producers say the order simply ensures capacity prices reflect actual costs in competitive markets. A spokesperson for NYISO said the grid operator is still reviewing the order and had no comment. Buyer-side market power mitigation measures were developed to ensure entities with both supply and capacity needs could not suppress prices. But clean energy advocates say those rules are now being twisted in order to negate the effects of New York State energy policies. "It's really an attack on New York's authority to forge its own energy future," said said Chris Casey, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Climate and Clean Energy Program. "It's an unlawful federal overreach that threatens the integrity of the capacity market to protect old, polluting power plants."
State looks to help people still burning coal for heat to change their ways - A new incentive helps Vermonters who are still heating with coal to switch to renewable energy. The program, designed by the Clean Energy Development Fund, pays 50% of the cost of installing advanced wood heat boilers and furnaces. Residents are eligible for up to $7,000, and businesses can receive up to $27,000 toward the change. While some are shocked that some Vermonters still burn coal, for others, it’s a way of life. Andrew Perchlik, director of the Clean Energy Development Fund, said he was surprised when he learned there were businesses and individuals still heating with coal. Perchlik said he spoke to some people who were eager to change what they saw as an antiquated and unclean heating system, but others have a longstanding commitment to coal. Perchlik worked on designing an incentive for people who wanted to switch their heating, but were facing a big bill. Businesses still using coal have concerns about where they’ll be able to buy it in the future. “We want to make sure they switch to a local, renewable fuel,” said Perchlik, who promotes advanced wood heat — efficient wood chip and wood pellet boilers and furnaces. These fuels can be obtained locally from trees grown in Vermont. According to Perchlik, 80 cents of every dollar spent on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas leaves the state. With locally grown wood, the money remains in Vermont, where it supports the local economy through the purchase of fuel and delivery services. Burning wood also aligns with the department’s climate and environmental goals, reducing fossil fuel emissions.
The Impact of New Jersey’s New Environmental Justice Law --All 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia have some form of environmental justice policy, intended to protect minorities and low-income citizens from disproportionately high exposure to pollution; but many of these vulnerable communities are still plagued, and at scale, say advocates calling for reform. Now new legislation in New Jersey is getting play as one of the toughest laws against environmental polluters. S232, signed into law in September 2020, will bring a “sea of change” –at least in the Garden State, with its many heavily polluted, low-income neighborhoods, proclaims Governor Phil Murphy. It is the first state law mandating that permits be denied following the determination that a new facility would disproportionately impact “overburdened” communities, compared to other New Jersey communities. And it includes other aggressive measures.The bill explicitly requires that during its permit review, the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) evaluates environmental and public health impacts of specific facilities on overburdened communities. (communities where 35% of households qualify as low-income according to the U.S. Census; 40% of households are minority; or 40% of households have limited English proficiency).Facilities that will meet this increased scrutiny include:
- • Gas-fired power plants and co-generation facilities;
- • resource recovery facilities or incinerators; and sludge processing facilities;
- • sewage treatment plants with a capacity of more than 50 million gallons per day;
- • transfer stations and solid waste facilities;
- • recycling facilities that receive at least 100 tons of recyclable material per day;
- • scrap metal facilities; and landfills; or
- • medical waste incinerators, except facilities attendant to a hospital or university that accept regulated medical waste for disposal.
“No longer will economically disadvantaged areas of our state be dumping grounds, and no longer will the rights of residents to clean air and clear water be overlooked,” Governor Murphy proclaimed just after signing the new bill.Murphy said there will be involvement from multiple government entities “so that we continue to look inward at the machinery of government – at the policies and practices across departments, authorities, and agencies – to ensure that not just the letter of the law is followed, but the spirit of environmental justice is writ-large in all our actions."He added, “only by ensuring this all-inclusive process can we ultimately deliver on the promise of lived equality.”
Recycling was a lie — a big lie — to sell more plastic, industry experts say - Although our landfills and oceans are full of it, we are as dependent as ever on plastic. And since COVID-19, it's gotten worse. Last year, Canada announced it was working on a ban of single-use plastics, which was initally sidelined by the pandemic. Recently, the government announced that many single-use plastics will be banned by the end of 2021. At the same time, CBC News reports our single-use plastic use increased by 250 to 300 per cent as people tossed their personal protective equipment and stopped using reusable bags and containers over fears they would spread the virus.What makes our lives convenient is also burying us. Plastic Wars, presented by The Passionate Eye, looks at the mounting crisis and how the industry has spent millions promoting recycling — just to sell more plastic.Although activists sounded the alarm about plastic waste in the 1970s, the documentary claims from 1990 to 2010, plastic production more than doubled. We've been sorting our trash for decades, believing it would be recycled. But the truth is the vast majority of the plastic we use won't be. Over the last seven decades, less than 10 per cent of plastic waste has been recycled. That's because, says David Allaway, from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, the conversation has been almost exclusively about recycling and not reducing and reusing.In the '80s, the industry was at the centre of an environmental backlash. Fearing an outright ban on plastics, manufacturers looked for ways to get ahead of the problem. They looked at recycling as a way to improve the image of their product and started labeling plastics with the now ubiquitous chasing-arrows symbol with a number inside. According to Ronald Liesemer, an industry veteran who was tasked with overseeing the new initiative, "Making recycling work was a way to keep their products in the marketplace." Most consumers might have assumed the symbol meant the product was recyclable. But according to experts in the film, there was no economically viable way to recycle most plastics, and they have ultimately ended up in a landfill. This included plastic films, bags and the wrapping around packaged goods, as well as containers like margarine tubs. "Our own customers … they would flat out say, 'It says it's recyclable right on it,'" says Coy Smith, former board member of the National Recycling Coalition. "And I'd be like, 'I can tell you, I can't give this away. There's no one that would even take it if I paid them to take it.'"
KY records second coal-mining death of 2020 within days | Lexington Herald Leader -After going a year without a coal-mining fatality, a second Kentucky miner has died in an accident in less than a week. Phillip Ramsey, 58, a miner from Madisonville, was killed Tuesday at the underground Cardinal mine in Hopkins County, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet announced Wednesday. Ramsey, who had 29 years’ mining experience, was a shuttle-car operator. He was outside his machine working on curtains that direct air flow in the mine when a piece of equipment that hauls coal, called a scoop, hit him and killed him, according to the release. Ramsey was pronounced dead at Baptist Health Hospital.A 48-year-old miner, Douglas Slusher, died Oct. 9 when a coupling failed on a pressurized hose he was using to spray grass seed on an area at the Double Mountain Mining #3 surface mine in Bell County surface mine.The hose hit Slusher in the chest, killing him. Kentucky had five coal-mining fatalities in 2019 after several years with only one or two deaths, according to the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration.
Secretary of Energy voices approval of Lambert’s Point Docks operation amid air quality study - The Virginian-Pilot - — The country’s top energy official said Monday he was confident about the safety of Norfolk Southern’s Lambert’s Point Docks operation as state officials begin to investigate how the coal loading facility is affecting Norfolk’s air quality.U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette wore an American flag neck gaiter as he toured the 1,850-foot-long pier on Monday. Brouillette met with Norfolk Southern workers and leaders during a visit he said was meant to show the Trump administration’s support for the domestic coal industry. For years, residents of Lamberts Point and other Norfolk neighborhoods have complained of coal dust coming down on them and worried about potential health effects. The state Department of Environmental Quality is planning to monitor how toxins connected to coal dust are traveling through nearby neighborhoods, using a new grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Brouillette acknowledged the seriousness of the issue and said he didn’t want to minimize the importance of improving safety measures. However, he said Norfolk Southern continues to step up precautions as technology improves.
CAMPAIGN 2020: Trump stopped talking about 'beautiful' coal -- Thursday, October 15, 2020 --Donald Trump took the stage at a 2016 campaign stop in West Virginia to thunderous applause at the Charleston Civic Center, where audience members raised "TRUMP DIGS COAL" signs above their heads. The presidential underdog wore a hard hat and pretended to shovel coal after accepting the West Virginia Coal Association's endorsement. His address sounded more like that of a mine operator than a real estate developer."Miners, get ready, because you're going to be working your asses off, all right?" Trump said, again eliciting boisterous cheers.Putting coal miners back to work was a central campaign promise back then that galvanized Trump's base and helped deliver him an unlikely victory.Fast-forward to 2020. Those jobs haven't materialized, and coal is all but missing from Trump's reelection messaging."I can't remember the last time President Trump said the word 'coal,'" said Phil Smith, spokesman for the United Mine Workers of America coal labor union.Reminding voters of his failed pledge to reinvigorate coal mining — especially in states that have realigned to reliably vote Republican — is not as politically advantageous today as it was when Trump vowed to end Democrats' "war on coal" in 2016, analysts say."Now they do have to say, 'Yeah, coal has continued to slide, but think about how much worse it would have been if the Democrats had been in charge.' That's a much tougher message to sell," said D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky. Coal mining employment has been stagnant for most of Trump's term, which coincided with a rise in demand for coal exports. Industry employment began declining last year and fell off a cliff when the coronavirus pandemic started. Today coal mining employs about 44,500 workers nationwide, 6,400 fewer than when Trump took office, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Exelon Corp. Weighs Shedding Nuclear Plants, Other Non-Utility Assets - Exelon Corp. is considering a breakup that would involve separating its non-utility assets, according to people familiar with the matter. The Chicago-based company is working with advisers to evaluate the split, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn’t public. No final decision has been made and Exelon could opt to keep its current structure, they said. “As we most recently communicated on our second quarter earnings call, we regularly review our corporate structure and overall mix of businesses to determine how to best create value and position our businesses for success,” William Gibbons, a representative for Exelon, said in a statement. Exelon’s non-utility operations include 21 nuclear reactors as well several solar, wind and natural-gas generating assets, according to its website. A potential split would leave Exelon focused on the regulated power market, with a portfolio that includes a half-dozen utilities in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and elsewhere. Power companies are increasingly unloading unregulated assets to focus on their utilities, in part because investors prefer pure-play businesses. DTE Energy Inc. is considering unloading its non-utilities businesses, people familiar with the matter said last week. Dominion Energy Inc. agreed to sell its natural gas infrastructure earlier this year to Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Bribery Probe Into a Nuclear Plant Bailout Examines Facilities’ Owner – WSJ -A criminal investigation into an alleged bribe to secure a bailout of troubled nuclear plants in Ohio is looking at the energy company that prosecutors say supplied some of the money and now owns the facilities, according to people familiar with the matter.Federal prosecutors have subpoenaed Energy Harbor Corp., asking executives to turn over documents and communications as part of an investigation into whether anyone associated with the company understood that payments made by it were part of an alleged pay-to-play arrangement, rather than a legal lobbying effort, the people said.Energy Harbor and its former parent company, Ohio utility FirstEnergy Corp. FE 0.25% , paid millions of dollars to an entity that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder allegedly used to fund support for the $1.5 billion bailout, which involves state subsidy payments to aid the nuclear plants, according to an FBI affidavit. FirstEnergy, which previously disclosed it had been subpoenaed, faces similar questions as Energy Harbor on what it knew about the money paid, the people said.Energy Harbor declined to comment. FirstEnergy said it is complying with the investigation. FirstEnergy has historically maintained a strong lobbying presence in the Ohio statehouse and made millions of dollars in campaign contributions to political candidates over the years.Mr. Householder was charged with racketeering in July. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio accused him and four associates of taking $60 million in bribes between 2017 and 2020. Mr. Householder allegedly used the money to secure the bailout, fund his campaign for Ohio House speaker and quash an effort to repeal the law that included the subsidy, the affidavit said. Mr. Householder has pleaded not guilty.The nuclear plants are now owned by Energy Harbor, a former FirstEnergy subsidiary that was spun off and renamed after filing for bankruptcy protection in 2018. The companyemerged from bankruptcy earlier this year with its assets partly subsidized by Ohio utility customers, who will annually contribute about $150 million to the company for seven years. Among the Energy Harbor executives asked to turn over documents are former hedge-fund investors John Kiani, the company’s executive chairman, and Stephen Burnazian, the company’s chief strategy officer, the people said. Their former funds, along with other investors, bought hundreds of millions of dollars in company debt, helped steer its reorganization and became shareholders upon its emergence. Energy Harbor declined to make Mr. Kiani or Mr. Burnazian available for interviews.
Ohio GOP lawmakers' big stall in response to alleged HB 6 corruption cannot stand – Cleveland.com Editorial - It’s been more than 12 weeks since Ohio’s political landscape underwent an earthquake when federal agents arrested then-House Speaker Larry Householder and U.S. prosecutors unveiled an 82-page affidavit and criminal complaint alleging a $60 million conspiracy to pass House Bill 6, the nuclear bailout bill.The federal charges -- which Householder and the other defendants have denied -- describe shockingly pervasive corruption allegedly reaching deep into the Statehouse and the legislative process, and also into the electoral process by which sympathetic legislators were recruited and elected.HB 6′s nuclear, coal and solar subsidies are due to kick in on Jan. 1, pulling in up to $170 million annually from Ohio ratepayers. Yet in the 12 weeks since the charges were unveiled, what has happened to repeal a bill that even a prime co-sponsor, state Rep. Jamie Callender, a Lake County Republican, acknowledges is tainted and in need of replacement?In terms of an outcome, not one thing.A new study committee was set up and has held hearings on HB 6 repeal bills but adjourned until after the election. And it’s unclear whether new House Speaker Robert Cupp, a Lima Republican, has the appetite to move on HB 6-related legislation in the lame-duck session. Democrats are collecting signatures on a discharge petition seeking to force a repeal vote on the floor, but do not yet appear to be close to the 50 signatures needed -- with Cupp still controlling when the House is in session.And where is the drive to do what the legislature should have done last year -- force Energy Harbor, the firm that owns the two Ohio nuclear plants, and its corporate predecessors, FirstEnergy Solutions and Solutions' former corporate parent, FirstEnergy Corp., to provide proof that a bailout is even needed? This big stall is not what Ohio ratepayers and voters are entitled to expect from the lawmakers they elect and pay. Ohioans want action. Cupp et. al. need to deliver it.
Ohio Power Plant Would Be First in US to Feature Gas-Hydrogen Blend - A blend of hydrogen and natural gas will fuel the 485-MW Long Ridge Energy Terminal combined cycle power plant beginning in November 2021, the first in the U.S., also putting the unit on a path to burn 100% hydrogen in the next decade, said plant owner New Fortress Energy on Oct. 13. The $588-million project is a collaboration with GE Power that will use the firm's H-class gas turbine, which can burn 15% to 20% hydrogen.
Long Ridge Energy Terminal to transition to 100% hydrogen-fired plant — Long Ridge Energy Terminal will transition its 485-MW combined-cycle power plant in Ohio to run on a blend of natural gas and hydrogen by November 2021, and to burn 100% green hydrogen by 2030, the company announced Oct. 13. The project will be a partnership between Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure, which is the parent company of Long Ridge, as well as New Fortress Energy and GE Power, whose turbines are installed at the plant. The plant, based in Hannibal, Ohio, amidst he Marcellus and Utica shale formations, will be the first purpose-built hydrogen-burning power plant in the US and the first worldwide to blend hydrogen in a GE H-class gas turbine, according to the announcement. The turbine can burn between 15%-20% hydrogen by volume in the gas stream initially, with the capability to transition to 100% hydrogen. By November 2021, Long Ridge will begin blending hydrogen in the gas stream, using hydrogen byproduct from a nearby industrial facility. Longer term, a New Fortress Energy division, called Zero, will focus on investing in and deploying emerging hydrogen production technologies to produce low-cost, carbon-free hydrogen, according to the announcement. The site has access to the Ohio River for water, as well as below ground salt formations for large-scale hydrogen storage. Additionally, with access to large-scale underground storage, the plant will be capable of supporting a balanced and diverse power generation portfolio in the future; from energy storage capable of accommodating seasonal fluctuations from renewable energy, to cost effective, dispatchable intermediate and baseload power, the announcement said.
Driller Dodges Sanctions Bid But Gets Discovery Warning – Law360 – An Ohio federal judge warned Gulfport Energy Corp. on Wednesday to speed up its discovery responses in a case in which mineral owners say the company and others drilled where they didn't belong, but stopped short of sanctioning it.
Researchers find elevated radiation near U.S. fracking sites (Reuters) - Radiation levels downwind of U.S. hydraulic fracturing drilling sites tend to be significantly higher than background levels, posing a potential health risk to nearby residents, according to a study by Harvard researchers released on Tuesday. The study, published in the journal Nature, adds to controversy over the drilling method known as fracking, which has helped the United States become the world’s biggest oil and gas producer over the past decade but which environmentalists say threatens water and air. President Donald Trump supports fracking because of its economic benefits, and his Democratic rival Joe Biden has promised to continue to allow it if elected even though he aims to impose an ambitious plan to fight climate change. Areas within 20 kilometers (12 miles) downwind of 100 fracking wells tend to have radiation levels that are about 7% above normal background levels, according to the study, which examined thousands of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s radiation monitor readings nationwide from 2011 to 2017. The study showed readings can go much higher in areas closer to drill sites, or in areas with higher concentrations of drill sites. “The increases are not extremely dangerous, but could raise certain health risks to people living nearby,” said the study’s lead author, Petros Koutrakis. Radioactive particles can be inhaled and increase the risk of lung cancer. Koutrakis said the source of the radiation is likely naturally-occurring radioactive material brought up to the surface in drilling waste fluids during fracking, a process that pumps water underground to break up shale formations. The study found the biggest increases in radiation levels near drill sites in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio that have higher concentrations of naturally occurring radioactive material beneath the surface, and lower readings in places like Texas and New Mexico that have less.
Airborne radioactivity increases downwind of fracking, study finds - The radioactivity of airborne particles increases significantly downwind of fracking sites in the US, a study has found.The Harvard scientists said this could damage the health of people living in nearby communities and that further research was needed to understand how to stop the release of the radioactive elements from under the ground.The radioactivity rose by 40% compared with the background level in the most affected sites. The increase will be higher for people living closer than 20km to the fracking sites, which was the closest distance that could be assessed with the available data.The scientists used data collected from 157 radiation-monitoring stations across the US between 2001 and 2017. The stations were built during the cold war when nuclear war was a threat. They compared data with the position and production records of 120,000 fracking wells.“Our results suggest that an increase in particle radioactivity due to the extensive [fracking development] may cause adverse health outcomes in nearby communities,” the team concluded. Petros Koutrakis at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health in Boston, who led the study, said: “If you asked me to go and live downwind [of fracking sites], I would not go. People should not go crazy, but I think it’s a significant risk that needs to be addressed.”Previous work has shown that chemicals released during fracking could pose a health risk to children and the process has contaminated groundwater in some places. Fracking is also an issue in the forthcoming presidential election, particularly in swing states such as Pennsylvania. Donald Trump has falsely claimed Joe Biden will ban fracking but the Democratic presidential candidate is largely supportive of fracking and only backs a ban on federal lands and offshore. The new research, published in the journal Nature Communications, examined the increases in the radioactivity of airborne particles when there were operational fracking wells within 20km upwind of a location. With 100 wells upwind the average rise in radioactivity was 7%, but some places had nearly 600 wells upwind.
Fracking Is Elevating Levels of Radioactivity Downwind - The new research, published in Nature Communications on Tuesday, shows that radiation levels up to 12 miles (20 kilometers) downwind of drilling sites can be dangerously high. The Harvard scientists obtained data from 157 Cold War-era federal radiation monitoring stations across the U.S. between 2001 and 2017. They then compared those numbers with data on the position and production records of 120,000 fracking wells to examine the increase in the radioactivity levels of airborne particles in locations that had wells upwind.The researchers found that sites that had 100 fracking wells within 12 mileupwind, tended to have radiation levels about 7% above normal background levels. That alone “may cause adverse health outcomes in nearby communities,” the study says, but as the researchers note, some places in the Northeast are 12 miles downwind of over 500 fracking sites. The highest radioactivity levels they observed were near the Marcellus and Utica shale fields in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where air particle radioactivity was 40% higher than normal background levels.This level of radioactivity near fracking operations was higher than levels measured in areas near conventional drilling operations. Texas and New Mexico, for instance, registered lower readings than places near the fracking operations near the Northeast shale fields. That’s because conventional oil and gas drilling doesn’t disturb underground rocks very much, rocks that contain a uranium isotope that’s the source of their radioactivity. Fracking, on the other hand, involves blasting through shale and other rock formations, which releases the uranium. That uranium then breaks into particles, which then become attached to particles in the air and get carried downwind.The study’s lead author, Petros Koutrakis, told Reuters that the levels of radioactivity his team observed “are not extremely dangerous, but could raise certain health risks to people living nearby.” The authors note that short-term exposure to particle radioactivity has been linked to adverse health outcomes like a decrease in lung function, higher blood pressure, and increasedinflammation that can cause cardiovascular issues. The study adds to previous research which shows that fracking can turn nearby water radioactive, leak carcinogenic pollutants into air and water and can evenmess with testosterone levels. Fracking is also a massive source of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.
What's The Future Of The Petrochemical Industry In The U.S.? (NPR podcast & transcript) For a decade, increasing American gas production has fueled a boom in petrochemical plants. There are big plans for more of them in Appalachia, but some wonder if the pandemic will crush those plans. Reid Frazier of the public radio program "The Allegheny Front" reports.
State AG Shapiro: Grand jury report reveals Pa.'s systemic failure to regulate shale gas industry - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette -A statewide grand jury investigating the operations and regulation of the shale gas drilling industry has issued a scathing report detailing the systemic failure of the state environment and health departments in regulating the industry and protecting public health.Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who released the 235-pagereport on the grand jury’s two-year investigation Thursday morning, said it uncovers the “initial failure” more than a dozen years ago of the state Department of Environmental Protection to respond to and regulate the shale gas industry and the impacts of hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.”And, while the Wolf administration has made improvements at the agency, the grand jury said, there remains room for improvement.“This report is about preventing the failures of our past from continuing into our future,” Mr. Shapiro said. “It’s about the big fights we must take on to protect Pennsylvanians — to ensure that their voices are not drowned out by those with bigger wallets and better connections. There remains a profound gap between our constitutional mandate for clean air and pure water, and the realities facing Pennsylvanians who live in the shadow of fracking giants and their investors.” In announcing the report’s findings at a Harrisburg news conference, Mr. Shapiro held up containers of brown water and clogged water filters while detailing testimony of residents who said the shale gas drilling industry has caused their well water to turn cloudy and become “black sludge,” and caused “problems with breathing whenever we were in the shower.” He said Pennsylvania farmers testified that their horses, pets and other livestock would sometimes become “ill, infertile and die” after drinking the same water as the farm families. According to Mr. Shapiro, the grand jury report noted that other residents testified that their air became so badly polluted from the drilling pad emissions and stray methane gas that they could not leave windows open or let their children play outside. He said parents testified that their children would wake at night with severe nosebleeds. He said the grand jury took 287 hours of testimony from rural residents of the shale gas fields and government officials, and that “there is still more to come from the investigation over the coming weeks and months.” The grand jury report makes eight recommendations:
- • Expand the set back distance between homes and gas wells from 500 feet to 2,500 feet and require an even bigger buffer between wells and schools and hospitals.
- • Stop the “chemical cover-up” by requiring drillers to make public to everyone, not just the DEP, all the chemicals used in drilling and fracking.
- • Seek safer ways than using tanker trucks prone to spills to transport toxic wastes from wastewater ponds, called impoundments.
- • Enact strict regulations on high pressure gas gathering lines running from well pads.
- • Enact rules requiring the DEP to consider the aggregated air quality impacts of well sites, compressor stations and “pigging,” that is pipeline clean-out operations, instead of looking at emissions from those facilities individually.
- • Conduct a full and proper public health assessment of the impacts of shale gas drilling and fracking. The state Health Department is undertaking such a study.
- • End the “revolving door” that allows DEP employees to go to work for the drilling industry because it erodes public trust.”
- • End the “troubling pattern” of DEP addressing almost all drilling violations with civil penalties and make better use of the attorney general’s office to press criminal charges.
Along Mariner East pipelines, secrecy and a patchwork of emergency plans leave many at risk and in the dark - Meadowbrook Mobile Home Park in York County is nestled with brown-paneled trailers and potholes half-filled with jagged concrete. Sue Ritter has lived here for more than 40 years... When workers in large trucks began barreling down these roads in 2017, hollowing out part of the forest for Sunoco’s Mariner East pipeline project, it seemed like another nuisance the now 73-year-old had little choice but to accept.The only indication Ritter said she was given about the pipeline — designed to carry highly volatile natural gas liquids — was the sound of construction groaning late into the night. She said she had no idea the project was unlike any other in the region. Should a leak occur, she did not know it would be odorless and appear as a fog or frost, causing pools of water to bubble in low-lying areas. She did not know that dried grass or dead animals found near the yellow marker poles could be a sign to evacuate. She did not know that, in an emergency, she should leave on foot because turning a car ignition could cause an explosion. “I don’t remember seeing anything about what would happen in case of emergency,” she said, adding it’s a struggle for her to walk more than two blocks. “Where are you supposed to go? … My first instinct would be to get in the car.” “We can’t even say ignorance is bliss.” As the Mariner East pipelines become a permanent underpinning of Pennsylvania, many communities are still in the dark about what to do in the rare case of a serious accident. That’s in large part because pipeline operators have withheld critical safety information from the public with little oversight by the state, a Spotlight PA investigation has found. Three pipelines are part of the 350-mile Mariner East system, which runs across the lower half of Pennsylvania from Ohio and West Virginia to a storage and processing facility in Marcus Hook, just outside Philadelphia. .For decades, federal regulators have identified failures in public education as directly contributing to fatalities in natural gas liquids pipeline accidents. In separate incidents involving pipelines in Texas and Mississippi — operated by Koch Pipeline Co. and Dixie Pipeline Co., respectively — residents in 50 homes should have received informational mailers but did not, and four people burned to death, according to federal reports. Sunoco and its parent company, Energy Transfer Partners, have withheld information in Pennsylvania in part by citing a state law enacted in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks intended to prevent key infrastructure, like water systems, from being compromised. But residents, school officials, and some local emergency planners said it is now preventing them from understanding the scope of harm associated with Mariner East and creating adequate response plans.
Natural gas-fired power plant project in WVa tabled for now (AP) — A company that received state approval for a loan guarantee for West Virginia’s first natural gas-fired power plant said it has stopped the project for now. Energy Solutions Consortium of Buffalo, New York, announced in a news release Friday that the project in Brooke County has been put on hold “due to changing conditions in the energy and financial markets,” news outlets reported. The West Virginia Economic Development Authority approved a $5.5 million loan guarantee for the project in September. The company’s statement said it is “evaluating alternative options to move forward.” The project would have brought more than 1,000 construction jobs alone to build the plant on the site of a reclaimed strip mine. Gov. Jim Justice had questioned why the project’s developers would need state funding. He also wanted the plant to be built with in-state labor and utilize natural gas produced in West Virginia.
Pipeline opponent falsely said to be part of antifa, lawsuit claims - Shortly before a Mountain Valley Pipeline opponent was charged in 2018 with trespassing in a construction zone, a member of the project’s security force falsely targeted her as “affiliated with Antifa,” a lawsuit claims. The charges against Nan Gray and two of her friends were later dropped by a prosecutor who said there was no evidence to support them. Gray and Gordon Jones then brought malicious prosecution lawsuits against Mountain Valley and its security firm, Global Security Corp., in December 2018. A lawsuit filed last week by a third person arrested, Hazel Beeler, alleges that a conspiracy to have the three Craig County residents charged was based, at least in part, on Gray’s supposed connections with antifa. Duane Moriarity, a security coordinator with lead pipeline partner Equitrans Midstream Corp., told colleagues shortly before Gray was arrested that she is a “leftist biologist” who “consorts with and gives direction to Antifa,” according to the lawsuits. “I hope she gets locked up,” the papers quote Moriarity as writing in a text shortly before Mountain Valley and Global Security officials obtained charges from a magistrate against Gray, Jones and Beeler. Gray, a soil scientist and outspoken opponent of Mountain Valley, has never been affiliated with antifa, the lawsuit states
FERC Extends Mountain Valley Pipeline Permit Despite Serious Doubts of Its Completion - — Today, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) granted Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC (MVP) permission to resume construction, even though the beleaguered fracked gas project still lacks some necessary authorizations. Industry watchers are growing increasingly skeptical of MVP’s future after a similar fracked gas pipeline, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, was cancelled as a result of similar permitting and legal challenges. Over a dozen environmental advocacy organizations have opposed MVP’s request. Planned to run over 300 miles through West Virginia and Virginia, state inspectors have already identified hundreds of violations of commonsense water protections, and MVP has paid millions of dollars in penalties. There are also questions about whether MVP is accurately reporting how much of the project has been completed, with one analysis showing it is only 51% finished. At this time the project is at least $2 billion over budget, two years behind schedule, and developers admit they need two more years to complete the project. In response, Sierra Club Beyond Dirty Fuels Senior Campaign Representative Joan Walker released the following statement: “MVP has violated commonsense water protections hundreds of times and allowing them to resume construction just means putting more communities at risk for an unnecessary pipeline that may never even be built. FERC is supposed to regulate these fracked gas projects, not roll over for them.” Roberta Bondurant of Preserve Bent Mountain/BREDL said: “MVP construction crews have yet to traverse the most intense and well known geohazards —steep, in some places, nearly vertical slopes, slip prone soils, karst, and earthquakes— in the height of a global pandemic, during hurricane season —these multiple geohazards make today’s FERC/MVP plan to resume construction maniacal, wholly destructive to land, forest, water and living beings. With such challenges ahead, MVP’s promises to complete by any time in 2021 simply fly in the face of fact. People and places in the path of MVP are not disposable—we won’t be sacrificed for MVP investment returns.” Russell Chisholm, Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights Co-chair said: “FERC’s dangerous decision is an attempt to rescue MVP from their own mismanagement despite years of delays and documented failures. FERC favors energy policy by force, rewards negligence over the objections of thousands, ignores the evidence of harm to our communities, and shamefully denies climate realities. To do this as the COVID-19 crisis spreads through rural Virginia and West Virginia puts MVP and FERC’s disregard for our safety on full display.” David Sligh, Conservation Director of Wild Virginia said: “This is another in a long list of irresponsible decisions by FERC. In allowing construction to proceed while MVP still lacks required permits, the Commission is enabling the corporation’s attempt to rush ahead, heedless of the harm already done and that which is sure to follow if this decision stands. The MVP is still not a done deal and FERC’s collusion with the frackers won’t make it so.”
Work on Mountain Valley Pipeline can resume, FERC rules - Mountain Valley Pipeline was given another two years Friday to complete a natural gas pipeline already marked by six years of community opposition, environmental damage, legal fights and delays. In orders filed late Friday afternoon, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also lifted a stop-work order for all but a 25-mile segment of the interstate transmission line that includes the Jefferson National Forest and adjacent land. While acknowledging problems with erosion and sedimentation during the first two years of construction, FERC found that allowing the pipeline to be completed is best for both the environment and the public. “The presence of equipment, personnel, and partially completed construction is disruptive to landowners, some of whom have endured perturbation since February 2018,” the commission wrote in a 2-1 decision. “As such, proceeding to final restoration is in the best interest of these landowners and the environment.” In a dissent, Commissioner Richard Glick wrote that lifting the stop-work order is “plowing ahead with construction in the face of uncertainty.” While two permits set aside by legal challenges have since been reissued — allowing the pipeline to cross streams and wetlands and for work to resume without jeopardizing endangered wildlife — Mountain Valley still lacks approval to pass through the national forest. By allowing work in other areas to resume, Glick wrote, “the Commission has put the cart before the horse.” “That is a mistake,” he continued, because even if the Forest Service were to approve the pipeline’s passage through about 3.5 miles of federal woodlands, it could require a different route, “leaving the work done to date little more than a pipeline to nowhere.” Glick also dissented in part to FERC’s second order, which was to extend by two years its certificate of public necessity, a major decision that allowed construction to begin. Issued Oct. 13, 2017, the three-year certificate would have expired next Tuesday. While Glick joined commissioners Neil Chatterjee and James Danly in supporting the two-year extension, he had strong words for a part of the decision that precluded landowners who were not part of the original proceeding from having a say in the matter. “Time and time again, landowners do their very best to navigate the complexity of FERC proceedings,” he wrote. “And, time and time again, the Commission relies on technicalities to prevent them from even having the opportunity to vindicate their interests.” The owners of about 300 pieces of property in Virginia did not want to sell their rural land to a private venture, which then took it using the power of eminent domain.
Federal Regulators Rule Controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline Can Restart Construction - Construction can continue on most of the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ruled Friday.The pipeline is scheduled to carry fracked natural gas through approximately 300 miles of Virginia and West Virginia, according to The Hill. The project was begun in 2018 and originally slated to be completed that same year, Reuters reported. But fierce legal opposition from environmental and community groups has significantly delayed the project. The FERC's latest approval comes just months after the owners of another contested Appalachian pipeline, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, canceled the project after years of similar delays."MVP has violated commonsense water protections hundreds of times and allowing them to resume construction just means putting more communities at risk for an unnecessary pipeline that may never even be built," Sierra Club Beyond Dirty Fuels senior campaign representative Joan Walker told WDBJ of the decision. "FERC is supposed to regulate these fracked gas projects, not roll over for them."The FERC paused construction of the MVP in 2019 after a federal court halted a Biological Opinion from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), which allows construction in the habitat of endangered or threatened species, according to Reuters and The Hill. Specifically, the court found fault with the opinion's assessment of the pipeline's impact on imperiled bat species, The Hill reported.However, the FWS issued a new opinion in September, according to Reuters, though environmental groups are once again challenging it.In light of the new FWS opinion, the FERC ruled two-to-one to allow the pipeline to resume construction along most of its route."Based on staff's review of the Mountain Valley Pipeline Project, we agree that completion of construction and final restoration ... where permitted, is best for the environment and affected landowners," Republican commissioners Neil Chatterjee and James Danly wrote.However, the pipeline still needs permission to cross the Jefferson National Forest, something dissenting commissioner Democrat Richard Glick pointed out."MVP may eventually receive permission to cross the Jefferson National Forest. But, by allowing it to recommence construction before doing so, the Commission has put the cart before the horse," Glick said, as The Hill reported. In addition to allowing the pipeline to resume construction Friday, the FERC also extended its certificate for another two years, as the company had requested, Appalachian Voices reported. The extension was granted despite the fact that more than 43,000 people had told the FERC they opposed the move during the public comment period. They noted that the pipeline had already amassed at least 350 environmental violations and $2.26 million in fines over the course of construction so far.
Groups take legal action to support North Carolina denial of Southgate pipeline > Appalachian Voices — The Center for Biological Diversity, Appalachian Voices and Sierra Club filed a motion Tuesday with the U.S. 4th Circuit Court of Appeals to defend the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s denial of a key water permit for a major fracked-gas pipeline.In August, North Carolina denied a mandatory water permit for the 73-mile MVP Southgate pipeline, a proposed extension of the 300-mile, still-unbuilt Mountain Valley Pipeline. The department based its permit denial on “avoidable environmental impacts to water quality and protected riparian buffers,” in part due to dim prospects for the successful completion of the mainline. Mountain Valley, the project’s sponsor, filed a petition in the 4th Circuit to overturn the state’s decision.“As the climate crisis bears down on us all, with worsening fires, floods and extinctions, we need to focus our attention on advancing clean energy solutions, not fossil fuel boondoggles,” said Perrin de Jong, a North Carolina-based staff attorney at the Center. “For the communities and imperiled wildlife along the proposed pipeline’s route, it’s time to bury this senseless project once and for all.”“North Carolina environmental regulators looked carefully at the Southgate proposal, and saw the dire implications for the water quality of our state that this wholly unnecessary project would bring. They made the right decision to reject the permit and avoid the risk, and we support that,” said Ridge Graham, Appalachian Voices’ North Carolina field coordinator.“Clean water is far too important to allow this unnecessary fracked gas pipeline to threaten it,” said Elly Benson, a senior attorney for the Sierra Club. “We moved to intervene in this action because MVP has proven it can’t be trusted to protect the streams and rivers that are so vital to these communities.” The project has faced significant headwinds from the start. The company has been fined for more than 300 water-quality violations in West Virginia and Virginia, and construction was halted for almost a year due to failures to properly protect endangered species along the project’s route. Mountain Valley is currently not permitted to complete construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.
Court Issues Emergency Order Blocking Mountain Valley Pipeline From Stream, Wetland Construction - A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked developers of the Mountain Valley Pipeline from doing construction across streams and wetlands in southern West Virginia and Virginia.The emergency administrative stay was issued Friday by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.Environmental groups led by the Sierra Club appealed to the court to stop river and stream crossings after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Sept. 25 reissued the project’s permit that allows the 303-mile natural gas pipeline to cross nearly 1,000 waterways in the two states. The original approvals were tossed by a federal appeals court in 2018.Environmental groups asked the Corps to reconsider. When the agency upheld its permits, advocates filed a lawsuit with the Fourth Circuit asking the court to review. The emergency order will remain in place until the court considers the full motion to stay.Environmental groups, in briefs, cited an Aug. 4 earnings call during which pipeline developer Equitrans told its shareholders it would rush to complete stream crossings before the court could stop it.In its response, Mountain Valley Pipeline opposed the stay. Developers said it ultimately expected cases from the environmental groups to fail and said it reached out to the Sierra Club in an effort to discuss the river crossings of most concern.Mountain Valley Pipeline had previously agreed not to undertake any waterbody construction through Oct. 17.The Friday ruling by the court puts stream construction projects on hold. However, an Oct. 9 order by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission partially lifted a stop-work order for the multi-billion dollar project on all but 25 miles of national forest land. The agency also extended the project’s for two years. Despite the court order, construction along the route may resume in other areas.
New York regulators must act on Con Edison’s contract with Mountain Valley Pipeline -- The CEO of New York gas utility Con Edison recently made the bold statement that natural gas is “no longer…part of the longer-term view” in the transition to a clean energy economy, and that he does not expect the company to make additional investments in natural gas pipelines. Many of the company’s actions — from its clean energy commitment, to its framework for pursuing non-pipe alternatives — place it on a path toward meeting that vision. But Con Ed’s investment and contract with Mountain Valley Pipeline call into question that bold statement and demand further scrutiny from the New York Public Service Commission.In 2016, Con Ed signed a 20-year contract for service on Mountain Valley Pipeline, a planned 300-mile pipeline in West Virginia and Virginia. Mountain Valley would connect with other pipelines on the East Coast to transport natural gas from the Marcellus Shale for ultimate delivery to the New York region. Since Con Ed entered the contract, the pipeline has been plagued by environmental and economic risks and significant legal challenges, and it is still not in service.Con Ed’s decision to enter a contract with the pipeline is particularly concerning because its affiliate company, Con Edison Transmission, is a 10% owner in the pipeline.When affiliated companies play on both sides of a gas pipeline — with one company as a pipeline developer and the other company, a utility, agreeing to buy transportation service from the pipeline — the result can enrich the developer and its shareholders, to the detriment of captive customers funding the project through their monthly energy bills. An EDF analysis indicates that Con Ed customers would shoulder $1.2 billion in costs for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, regardless of whether the company uses the pipeline capacity. Con Ed’s affiliate contract has never been scrutinized by the commission, despite repeated requests by EDF over the last three years. To ensure ratepayers are protected, EDF has called on the commission to clarify the law regarding oversight of these types of agreements. By acting on EDF’s petition and opening a separate proceeding to address the Mountain Valley Pipeline contract, the commission can ensure a forum is available to determine whether the contract is in the public interest.
Too Much Sun Degrades Coatings That Keep Pipes From Corroding, Risking Leaks, Spills and Explosions - For natural gas pipeline developers hunting for a good deal on a 100-mile section of steel pipe, a recent advertisement claimed to have just what they are looking for.Following the cancelation of the proposed Constitution natural gas pipeline in Pennsylvania and New York, a private equity firm recently offered a "massive inventory" of never-used, "top-quality" coated steel pipe. What the company didn't mention is that the pipe may have sat, exposed to the elements, for more than a year, a period of time that exceeds the pipe coating manufacturers' recommendation for aboveground storage, which could make the pipe prone to failure. Long term, aboveground pipe storage has become commonplace as pipeline developers routinely begin construction activity on pipeline projects before obtaining all necessary permits and as legal challenges add lengthy delays. Whether canceled or stalled, overdue oil and gas pipelines across the country may face a little-known problem that raises new safety concerns and could add additional costs and delays. Fusion bonded epoxy, the often turquoise-green protective coating covering sections of steel pipe in storage yards from North Dakota to North Carolina, may have degraded to the point that it is no longer effective. The coatings degrade when exposed to ultraviolet radiation from the sun while the pipes they cover sit above ground for years. The compromised coatings leave the underlying pipes more prone to corrosion and failures that could result in leaks, catastrophic spills or explosions. Degraded coatings were implicated in an oil spill from a failed pipeline near Santa Barbara, California in 2015. Toxic compounds may also be released as the coating breaks down, raising concerns that the pipes could pose a health threat to those who live near the vast storage yards holding them. "There are pipelines being built all over the place and it doesn't seem like anyone is keeping close track of what the status is of the coatings," said Amy Mall, a senior advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council. "There are a lot of unknowns here and yet we're relying on the coating to protect landscapes and communities from massive explosions." The National Association of Pipe Coating Applicators, an industry group,states that "above ground storage of coated pipe in excess of 6 months without additional ultraviolet protection is not recommended." However, photographs and satellite images suggest pipe sections for the Constitution Pipeline may have been stored aboveground without ultraviolet protection for more than a year before they were covered in "whitewash"—common household paint—that shields their coatings from the sun.As pipeline projects across the country face increasing legal challenges and construction delays, long-term aboveground storage of pipe sections are not limited to the Keystone XL and Constitution pipelines. Yet basic information is scant on how long pipe has been stored above ground; what, if any, measures developers took to protect the pipe from the elements, or what condition the pipe is in .
A Bumpy Ride as Storms Face Inventories - The 2020 hurricane season has been active. The past three significant storms headed for the Gulf of Mexico and the Louisiana coast. In early September, Hurricane Laura pushed the November NYMEX natural gas futures price to a high of $3.002 per MMBtu. Towards the end of the month, Hurricane Sally was the second storm of the season. The approach of Sally pushed the November futures contract to a high of $2.928 on September 24.The most recent storm, Hurricane Delta, was charging towards the US Gulf Coast last week. So far, the threat to energy production sent the price of November natural gas futures to a high of $2.821on October 9.The Henry Hub is the delivery point for NYMEX natural gas futures. The Hub is in Erath, Louisiana, not far from the Gulf of Mexico. In 2005 and 2008, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita sent the natural gas futures price above $10 per MMBtu. In 2005, the energy commodity rose to its highest level in history at $15.65 per MMBtu. Meanwhile, natural gas has not traded north of $6.493 since 2008. At below $3, the price remains under pressure. Massive discoveries of natural gas reserves in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions and fewer regulations have increased supplies of the energy commodity over the past years. While storms that threaten natural gas infrastructure can still push prices higher, they remain at very low levels. As we head into the peak season for demand during the winter months, the amount of natural gas in storage is approaching record levels in the US. So far, even though the hurricane season has caused periodic rallies, the highs continue to be lower as we move towards the time of the year when natural gas often reaches a seasonal high. The move to a new high for 2020 at $2.821 last week was more a function of the roll from October to November futures than price action in the natural gas futures arena. The contracts rolled at an over 60 cents per MMBtu contango or premium for the November contract, creating the higher high. Even though Hurricane Delta was descending on Louisiana on Friday, the price of nearby natural gas closed the week below the medium-term technical resistance level at $2.905 per MMBtu.
U.S. natgas jumps to 19-month high on cold, rising LNG exports - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures spiked on Monday to their highest since March 2019 as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants jumps with units returning in Louisiana after Hurricane Delta and in Maryland after maintenance work. Traders also noted prices were up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks and with output on track to drop to its lowest since July 2018 due mostly to well shut-ins for Delta. Delta slammed into the Louisiana coast late Friday, causing over 878,000 customers to lose power. There were about 224,000 homes and businesses still without service Monday morning, mostly in Louisiana. Front-month gas futures rose 14.0 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $2.881 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states would slide from a 26-month low of 82.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the weekend to a preliminary 82.0 bcfd on Monday due to the Delta shut-ins. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms started to return offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. BSEE said that output was now curtailed by 1.3 bcfd, down from 1.7 bcfd on Sunday. In Louisiana, the Cameron and Sabine Pass LNG export plants both took in more pipeline gas over the weekend and tankers started to return to Sabine. There is also at least one vessel waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to go to Cameron, according to Refinitiv data. In Maryland, Dominion's Cove Point started to exit its three-week annual maintenance outage. As LNG feedgas rises and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 84.6 bcfd this week to 94.8 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Friday.
U.S. natgas futures ease from 19-month high on lower demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday from a 19-month high in the prior session as output started to rise after Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price drop came despite a continued increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants now that all facilities were ramping up following hurricane and maintenance shutdowns over the past few weeks. Front-month gas futures fell 2.6 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.855 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta returned to service. As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 84.6 bcfd this week to 92.6 bcfd next week. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September, despite several hurricane and maintenance outages this month. That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations. Prior to that, U.S. exports fell every month from March to July as coronavirus-related demand destruction caused prices in Europe and Asia to collapse and buyers to cancel over 150 cargoes.
U.S. natgas futures drop over 7% on lower demand forecasts, rising output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 7% on Wednesday as output climbs with Gulf Coast wells returning to service after Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected over the next two weeks. That price drop came despite a continued increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants now that all facilities were ramping up following hurricane and maintenance shutdowns. Front-month gas futures fell 21.9 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $2.636 per million British thermal units. That puts the contract down about 11% since hitting a 20-month intraday high on Monday. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 85.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta returned to service. As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 85.0 bcfd this week to 91.5 bcfd next week. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September, despite several hurricane and maintenance outages this month. That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices have prompted buyers to reverse some earlier cargo cancellations. Previously, U.S. exports fell every month from March to July as coronavirus-related demand destruction caused prices in Europe and Asia to collapse and buyers to cancel around 175 cargoes.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage rise by 46 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US natural gas injections into storage the week ended Oct. 9 increased by less than half the volume reported during the same week one year prior as weaker Henry Hub prices prompted coal-to-gas switching and stronger residential and commercial demand. Storage inventories increased by 46 Bcf to 3.877 Tcf for the week, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of Oct. 15. The injection was less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 50 Bcf build. The injection measured much less than the five-year average gain of 87 Bcf, according to EIA data. The 41 Bcf drop in the surplus marked the largest reduction since January as the prolonged weakness in US production, combined with the return of both heating demand and LNG exports, begin to tighten domestic gas markets through the end of the year. Storage volumes stood at 388 Bcf, or 11% more than 3.489 Tcf a year earlier; and 353 Bcf, or 10%, more than the five-year average of 3.524 Tcf. Total US demand increased by roughly 3.8 Bcf/d on the week to 85.2 Bcf/d, led by a combined 2.8 Bcf/d increase in residential-commercial demand in the East and Midwest regions on colder weather, according to Platts Analytics. Demand was further bolstered by an uptick in LNG feedgas deliveries along the Gulf Cost. Upstream, total supply slipped 200 MMcf/d week on week as onshore and offshore production fell almost 1 Bcf/d, though an uptick in net Canadian imports helped minimize the drop in supply. The approach of Hurricane Delta in the week ended Oct. 10 prompted most Gulf of Mexico operators to shut in production. The NYMEX Henry Hub November contract leaped 14 cents to $2.77/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. The December-through-March contract strip increased 6 cents on average to $3.31/MMBtu. ICE end-of-season storage peak inventory trades were at 3.94 Tcf after spending much of the past three months trading above 4 Tcf. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 48 Bcf injection for the week ending Oct. 16. This would lower the surplus to the five-year average by 27 Bcf. Sample storage injections for the week in progress increased by 1 Bcf week over week as US balances flicker in the middle ground between waning power burn and waxing res-comm demand. Total supply has averaged 1.4 Bcf/d lower on the week at an average of 89.4 Bcf/d, with the offshore production sector posting a 500 MMcf/d dip due to Hurricane Delta. However, South Central demand has proven unexpectedly buoyant in the wake of Hurricane Delta. As a result, depleted field injections fell while the US Gulf Coast salt dome sample flipped from a net injection of 1 Bcf to a net draw of less than 100 MMcf/d week over week.
U.S. natgas jumps over 5% on small storage build, cold forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose over 5% on Thursday on forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks and a smaller-than-expected storage build. That price increase came despite a rise in output with Gulf Coast wells returning after Hurricane Delta and an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities injected 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Oct. 9. That is lower than the 55-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 102 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 87 bcf. The increase boosted stockpiles to 3.877 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 10.0% above the five-year average of 3.524 tcf for this time of year and keeps inventories on track to reach a record over 4.0 tcf by the end of October. After falling almost 8% in the prior session, front-month gas futures rose 13.9 cents, or 5.3%, to settle at $2.775 per million British thermal units. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states jumped to 87.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday from a 26-month low of 82.4 bcfd over the weekend as wells shut for Delta returned to service. As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 85.2 bcfd this week to 91.6 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecast on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 6.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September, despite several hurricane and maintenance outages this month.
Natural Gas Futures Sputter on Weather, LNG Demand Uncertainty -- Natural gas futures struggled to maintain momentum early Friday as traders tried to determine whether liquefied natural gas (LNG) and weather demand would be enough to ward off a toppling of storage inventories by the end of October. With an increasingly chillier weather pattern emerging for the end of the month, the November Nymex gas futures contract took off midday, but then retreated to settle the day at $2.773, off two-tenths of a cent. December climbed 1.0 cent to $3.271. Spot gas prices moved lower on soft weekend demand. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 8.5 cents to $1.995. With LNG demand not yet able to reach its full potential because of restrictions preventing deep draft traffic in the Calcasieu Ship Channel following Hurricane Delta, weather has become increasingly important to the storage trajectory for the remainder of October and into the early part of winter. Feed gas flows to U.S. terminals on Friday moved closer to 8 Bcf, but Cameron LNG may not resume full operations until the waterway restrictions are lifted. Given the current rate of liquefaction, Genscape Inc. analyst Amir Rejvani said Cameron would need to shut down or decrease operations significantly over the weekend in order to not reach local LNG tank capacity. Cameron spokesperson Anya McInnis told NGI the facility “continues to make progress toward resuming normal operations” and is “in contact with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Lake Charles Pilots to determine their timeline for restoring deep-draft vessel access to the waterway.” Army Corps spokesperson Ricky Boyett told NGI at midday Friday that the previously submerged oil rig had been removed, and the removal of a recreational boat “was in the process.” Plans to remove the barge that was discovered late Tuesday were expected to be finalized over the weekend, and a dredger was currently working in the waterway. “As long as the channel remains shut in, weak demand and low cash prices could limit the November contract’s upside potential,” said EBW Analytics Group. As for weather, the midday Global Forecast System (GFS) continued to favor cold slowly easing across the northern and central United States Oct. 29-Nov. 1, and teasing cold air could hold longer, NatGasWeather said. However, the weather data was inconsistent after Oct. 24-25, and big changes were possible. “What’s likely to be of greatest importance is how the weather data trends for Oct. 28-Nov. 1 and whether cold shots can prove to continue into the northern United States,” the forecaster said. The European model favors a milder pattern gradually returning Oct. 28-Nov. 1, while the GFS has demand slowly easing but trying to hold a little stronger. NatGasWeather said it was important to consider that the GFS has had “credibility problems” to start the heating season by over-forecasting cold shots, which is evidenced by giving back a huge amount of demand for the coming week. Any prolonged period of mild weather may keep a lid on prices for the near term, with storage inventories still sitting well ahead of historical levels. On Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stocks grew by 46 Bcf to 3,877 Bcf. This is 388 Bcf above year-ago levels and 353 Bcf above the five-year average.
Pandemic puts natural gas projects on hold - The COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed demand for energy around the world, and the United States is producing a lot of natural gas that doesn’t have anywhere to go. Last year saw massive investment in liquified natural gas facilities, but that expansion has come to a grinding halt. The price of natural gas is at historic lows, so the plans to expand existing liquified natural gas terminals and build more in the U.S. have been put on hold.“They may not be put off forever — some just a couple years, some maybe a bit longer,” said Joshua Rhodes, research associate at the University of Texas Energy Institute.Rhodes said that could hurt workers in places like the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana.“As that process stops, you’re going to have less need for construction workers; you’re gonna have less need for the engineers and the overseers on those projects,” Rhodes said.And beyond the stalled projects, Rhodes said reduced LNG exports mean less work for those who already have jobs in natural gas. Because building facilities requires a huge capital investment, they have to remain active for a while, according to Nikos Tsafos, a senior fellow with the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.“The thing about LNG projects is they have a long time horizon,” he said. “They take about five years to build, and they stay online for 20 plus years.” Tsafos said that means energy companies have to assume we’ll be consuming natural gas for decades, despite accelerating climate change concerns.
Crews clean up oil spill on Wilmington River - Crews are cleaning up an oil and fuel spill in the Wilmington River after a barge and crane flipped over and sunk into the water. The Coast Guard says construction was happening at a resident’s property along the river when the crane flipped. Over the last few days, various teams have been overseeing cleanup operations. Since Thursday night, the Coast Guard and other crews have been investigating the spill’s potential impact on the environment and human health. “We sent a team of personnel to the residence and investigated the situation," Lieutenant Matthew Spado with the Marine Safety Unit. "We found out there’s about 20-30 gallons of fuel onboard the crane and tug that were there.” Spado says dive operations took place on Monday to assess the equipment that has sunk and to begin rigging it for salvage operations. “The crane was attached to the barge and that flipped over and so those pieces are intact,” he said. A spill containment method called a boom has been put around the area and since Thursday, Spado says there’s been minor sheening in the water. “We will ensure that all of the pollution is cleaned up in an appropriate manner,” he says. David Mewborn is with the Savannah Riverkeeper. Their job is to advocate for clean water often participating in volunteer cleanups around the rivers and tributaries of the river basin. “Accidents like this can affect something as small as the microorganisms in the marsh to the shellfish, the shore birds, the fish and the mammals that are in the water,” Mewborn said. Until the spill is cleaned up, Mewborn says they will keep an eye on it to make sure no residue or oils can be seen or that any hazardous materials are floating on the surface.
Colonial Pipelines Line 2 shut after Hurricane Delta: company (Reuters) - Colonial Pipeline, the largest oil products pipeline in the United States, shut its main distillate fuel line after Hurricane Delta disrupted electric power, the company said on Sunday. Line 2 was shut on Saturday evening, pending the restoration of commercial power to stations upstream of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the company said. Its main gasoline line resumed operations on Saturday, the company said. Hurricane Delta made landfall on Friday evening in southwestern Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. It had weakened by Sunday. Colonial connects Gulf Coast oil refineries with markets across the southern and eastern United States. Line 2 runs from Houston to Greensboro, North Carolina.
U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production cut by 92% - regulator - U.S. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil output on Friday was down by 1.69 million barrels, or 92% of the region’s daily production, the U.S. Department of Interior reported, as energy companies shut wells and offshore pipelines as Hurricane Delta churned through. Producers had evacuated staff from 281 platforms and drilling rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico as of midday on Friday. Producers had halted some 62% of offshore natural gas production, or 1.68 billion cubic feet per day, Interior Department figures showed.
U.S. energy companies begin restoring oil and gas output (Reuters) - U.S. energy companies were returning workers and restarting operations at storm-swept production facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Sunday, two days after Hurricane Delta barreled through the area. Chevron Corp, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BHP Group were returning workers to production platforms in the U.S.-regulated northern Gulf of Mexico, the companies said. BHP expects to complete the return of workers to its Shenzi and Neptune production platforms on Sunday, spokeswoman Judy Dane said, but resuming flows will depend on how quickly pipelines return to service, she said. It can take several days after a storm passes for energy producers to evaluate facilities for damage, return workers and restore offshore production. The companies that operate oil and gas pipelines and process the offshore output also shut ahead of the storm. Cumulative volumes shut-in by Hurricane Delta through Sunday, according to company reports to the U.S. government, amounted to 8.79 million barrels of oil and 8.30 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The area produces about 1.8 million barrels of oil per day, or 17% of total daily U.S. output, and 5% of daily U.S. natural gas production. Still remaining shut are the Calcasieu Waterway in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and the ports of Lake Charles and Cameron, Louisiana, near where Delta made landfall Friday evening. The ports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, including the Sabine Pass, which serve major oil and liquefied natural gas processing plants, were reopened with restrictions on Sunday, the U.S. Coast Guard said. Total SA continued restarting its 225,500 barrel-per-day Port Arthur, Texas, refinery on Sunday. The refinery, which is about 65 miles (100 km) west of Creole, Louisiana, where the storm went ashore, lost power on Friday. Fast-moving Delta swept over Louisiana on Saturday and became a low-pressure system over the U.S. state of Mississippi later that day. It was south of Knoxville, Tennessee, Sunday morning and moving northeast at 16 mph.
91 Percent of US GOM Oil Still Knocked Out - The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) revealed on Sunday that 91.01 percent of oil production and 62.15 percent of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was still shut-in as a result of Hurricane Delta. These oil and gas shut-in figures, which stood at 91.72 percent and 62.43 percent, respectively, on Saturday, correspond to 1.68 million barrels of oil per day and 1.68 billion cubic feet of gas per day, the BSEE highlighted. As of Sunday, personnel had been evacuated from a total of 198 production platforms from the U.S. GOM, which is equivalent to 30.79 percent of the 643 manned platforms in the region. Personnel have also been evacuated from four non-dynamically positioned rigs in the area, which is equivalent to 40 percent of the ten rigs of this type currently operating in the U.S. GOM. A total of one dynamically positioned rig remained off the location out of the hurricane’s projected path as a precaution. On Saturday, CBS News outlined that Hurricane Delta led to more than 600,000 power outages being reported across Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) described Hurricane Delta as “major”. On Monday, the NHC highlighted that Delta had turned into a post-tropical cyclone and noted that post-tropical remnants of Delta continued to weaken. The BSEE is the lead federal agency charged with improving safety and ensuring environmental protection related to the offshore energy industry, primarily oil and natural gas, on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. The organization works to promote safety, protect the environment and conserve resources offshore through vigorous regulatory oversight and enforcement, according to its website.
Hurricane Delta compounds oil pollution left by Hurricane Laura - photos - Hurricane Delta made landfall in Creole, Louisiana, on October 9 — 13 miles east of where Hurricane Laura struck 43 days before. It touched down in an area packed with oil and gas wells, pipelines, and rigs. An assessment of how much oil was spilled after Laura had not been made when Hurricane Delta created a new round of destruction along a similar track, from Port Arthur, Texas, to Baton Rouge. Delta, the 10th named storm to hit the United States in 2020, set a new record for the most storms to hit in a single Atlantic hurricane season. Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told NOLA.com that it’s too early to say whether climate change is a factor in producing storms this year, but that it is definitely a factor in the potential effects of tropical storms and hurricanes that approach land. The day after Delta hit, I drove to Creole to document the storm’s aftermath. On nearly deserted roads, some still covered with standing water, I found a desolate landscape that in places reeked of spilled oil. While a few structures remained standing, they all seemed to have sustained damage. On October 12, I flew over Creole and the surrounding area on the western Louisiana coastline near the Texas border. The flight followed a similar path to one I took following Hurricane Laura. I noticed that some structures that withstood Laura’s winds of 150 mph and a 17 foot storm surge could not withstand Delta, with winds up to 100 mph and 9.3 foot storm surge. There were fresh oil slicks and sheen in the wetlands, though not as much as what I saw after Laura. Margie Vicknair-Pray, spokesperson for the Delta Chapter of the Sierra Club expressed concern about migratory birds after seeing my photos of oil in the marsh after Laura and Delta. “Tens of thousands of birds can pass through the coastal marshes each day,” she said. “Bird enthusiasts follow the migrations of songbirds, shore birds and arctic summer residents like many ducks and geese who find their way to south Louisiana expecting rest and a meal before the exhausting trip across the Gulf. What awaits them is oil strewn marshes and death,” she said. With over 1,400 active oil wells in the storm’s path, it is no surprise that Louisiana regulators in the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) were still dealing with issues from Hurricane Laura when Delta hit. Also in both storms path were dozens of offshore oil platforms, pipelines, the LNG plant in Cameron Parish and petrochemical plants and refineries in the Lake Charles area.
Delta causes outages, flaring among industry - Heavy industry in Southeast Texas is still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Delta after the storm briefly knocked out units at two major refiners and caused flaring at plants across the area. Winds from Delta caused power outages across southern Jefferson County on Friday that disrupted production at the Total Petrochemicals and Motiva Enterprises refineries in Port Arthur. Bloomberg reported that the Motiva refinery lost power to “several key production units,” but the company did not return requests for comment. Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery is the largest in North America and is capable of producing more than 600,000 barrels of refined product a day. Motiva had not submitted an air event report to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for the outage or any resulting air emissions. Total also had an outage at its refinery and a storage facility that caused it to slow its production and activate flares for 12 hours. In its report to TCEQ, the company said it was an external power interruption caused by Delta, and the Total refinery began the restart process after safely securing equipment. Total initially reported an estimated 14,737 pounds of sulfur dioxide and more than 550 pounds of volatile organic compounds were released in the event, along with thousands of pounds of other compounds. It also reported a flare with 100% opacity at the Cray Valley Beaumont location on Interstate 10 operated by Total. Brian McGovern, a spokesman with TCEQ, said that 100% opacity is reported when a flare emits smoke and vapors through which light can’t be detected by instrumentation or an observer. While Louisiana refiners took the brunt of the production disruption with 951,000 of 3.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline, according to Robert Yawger with Mizuho securities, Texas is experiencing similar issues. “Texas is looking at 116,000 of 5.905 million (barrels per day) of crude oil production offline,” he wrote in a Monday report. “Unfortunately, Gulf of Mexico crude oil production is likely to return to normal levels faster than refiners will return to normal.” With production delayed at refineries, companies will likely have to find a place to stash those barrels for the time being.
Under Great Lakes, group may have found evidence of Ice Age culture — A team of nonscientists may have inadvertently confirmed the most important finding in Great Lakes archaeology in at least a decade.The group, made up mostly of Native American tribal citizens, utilized a remote-operated underwater vehicle in the Straits of Mackinac to take a look at Enbridge's Line 5 oil and natural gas pipelines on the lake bottom. But among the things they found were stones they say appear arranged in circular and linear patterns on the lake floor.If that was done by the hands of humans, it occurred when the Straits area, which divides Michigan's peninsulas, was last above water — near the end of the last Ice Age, about 10,000 years ago."We didn't expect to find this — it was really just amazing," said Andrea Pierce, a 56-year-old Ypsilanti resident and citizen of the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians, who was one of four women who drove the project to inspect the Straits bottom.A side-scan sonar image of the Straits of Mackinac lake bottom, taken in late August or early September 2020 by Busch Marine Inc. on behalf of Terri Wilkerson and others, shows what appears to be stones in at least a half-circle, visible in the orange and yellow band on the left, about halfway down. Side-scan sonar uses ultra-sonic waves bounced along a lake bottom to detect items on the sea floor. The group behind the Straits exploration believe this is evidence of rocks intentionally placed there by a culture at a time when the area would have been above-water -- around the end of the Ice Age some 10,000 years ago. The finding seems to correlate with a University of Michigan archaeologist's 2009 discovery of similar stone formations under water in Lake Huron, near Alpena, Michigan, also believed to be from an ancient, Ice Age-era culture. That professor, John O'Shea, told state officials in February that a consultant, hired by Enbridge to explore the area of its proposed Straits tunnel pipeline project, relayed to O'Shea that he had seen similar rock formations in the Straits."The technician assigned to the job was told only to consider shipwrecks," O'Shea wrote in a Feb. 12, 2020, letter to deputy state historic preservation officer Martha MacFarlane-Faes. "When the technician noticed linear stone alignments of the type documented in Lake Huron, he was told to ignore them. When he asked permission to consult with me about their potential cultural origin, his request was again denied. He was subsequently removed from the project and was not allowed to see the final report."
Possible Ice Age artifacts ignored by Line 5 tunnel survey, archeologist says - - A University of Michigan archeology professor says an Enbridge subcontractor was directed to ignore possible prehistoric cultural artifacts in the Straits of Mackinac and was then removed from a Line 5 tunnel site assessment project after asking to consult with experts.“This entire story is very disturbing,” wrote archeologist John O’Shea in a February letter to officials in Michigan’s State Historic Preservation Office.The revelation comes as a group of northern Michigan tribal members say they’ve recently discovered possible evidence of underwater Ice Age artifacts in the area where Enbridge is seeking permits to build a tunnel for its oil pipeline.O’Shea, who co-authored a 2009 paper in the National Academy of Sciences documenting evidence of prehistoric hunting grounds under Lake Huron, has been trying to alert state officials for much of the year about a conversation he had with an Enbridge subcontractor worried over apparent disregard for submerged artifacts in tunnel survey work.O’Shea said a colleague sub-contracted by the Florida firm SEARCH, Inc. approached him at a conference in January to express concern about inadequate materials and a limited scope of work he was given for a cultural resources assessment of the Straits of Mackinac in connection with the tunnel project.His colleague, which O’Shea declined to name, had seen rock formations in underwater imagery similar to those discovered along the Alpena-Amberly Ridge — a prehistoric caribou hunting corridor connecting Ontario to northeast Michigan that’s now under Lake Huron.The subcontractor asked to explore the imagery further but was told to only assess shipwrecks in the straits, O’Shea says.“When the technician noticed linear stone alignments of the type documented in Lake Huron, he was told to ignore them,” O’Shea wrote in a Feb. 12 letter to deputy state historic preservation officer Martha MacFarlane-Faes.“When he asked permission to consult with me about their potential cultural origin his request again was denied. He was subsequently removed from the project and was not allowed to see the final report.” Enbridge denies any knowledge of the potential artifacts.
Enbridge completes 12-mile North Dakota stretch of Line 3 — Enbridge Energy officials said Wednesday that they have completed a small section of its Line 3 crude oil pipeline replacement project in North Dakota, leaving only the Minnesota stretch that has been challenged by state officials and others. Line 3 starts in Alberta and clips a corner of North Dakota before crossing northern Minnesota en route to Enbridge’s terminal in Superior, Wisconsin. More than 400 construction workers started on the 12-mile North Dakota project in August, the company said in a release. The Calgary, Alberta-based company has also completed the Canadian and Wisconsin portions of the pipeline. Plans to complete the 337-mile line in Minnesota have been approved by the the independent Public Utilities Commission but is facing its third appeal from the state Commerce Department An administrative law judge is due to issue a report Friday that will inform the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency as it decides on water quality permits for the project. The new line is popular among Minnesota Republicans who control the Senate and construction unions that have previously backed Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. Environmental and tribal groups oppose the project, citing climate change and spill risks. Enbridge is replacing the line that was built in the 1960s.
Good Times Bad Times - RBN's Outlook for Oil, Gas, and NGL Supply, Demand, And Prices | RBN Energy - Six months on from the height of the crude oil price rout of April 2020 and the unprecedented market convulsions that followed, energy markets appear to be settling into a state of hyper-uncertainty amidst the ongoing pandemic. Crude oil prices have been downright equanimous, stabilizing near $40/bbl in recent months. Volatility has reigned in the gas market, but it has thus far managed to avoid a major collapse, and the NGLs market has dodged a complete derailment from norms, if barely. The relative calm provides the perfect opportunity to assess how COVID-era energy markets are operating and what lies ahead — which is what we’ll be doing next week at RBN’s Virtual School of Energy. There’s a new order taking shape, and we’re rolling out RBN’s freshly updated outlooks for U.S. crude oil, natural gas and NGL markets. As always, we’ll pull back the curtain on the fundamental analysis and models behind our forecasts, so you can understand how we arrived at our answers, and gain the skills and tools to adjust the assumptions as markets evolve. As you’ve gathered by now, today’s blog is an unabashed advertorial for our virtual conference, but read on if you’d like to hear more about the underlying premise behind our latest outlook. The last time we held our School of Energy online was in April — pretty much in the middle of the COVID meltdown. Crude prices dropped below $20/bbl that week, propane prices were up by a dime a gallon, gas was bouncing up and down 5-10% each day, and the market was hard-pressed to know what would happen in the next five days, much less six months or a year. In some ways, not much has changed since then; COVID is still with us, the toll in human lives has been horrendous, big pieces of the economy are still shut down, air travel is still comatose, and conferences are still virtual. The market has also since weathered a wipeout in LNG exports. What has changed, though, is that energy markets, like the rest of the world, have learned to adapt to life in a pandemic. So has RBN’s framework for understanding how energy markets are behaving. Ever since the collapse of OPEC+ and COVID struck, the RBN team has been retooling our production, infrastructure, and supply/demand models to reflect the new world order. Now that the market has gotten a breather from the rapid-fire punches of early 2020 and is operating somewhat more rationally, it’s a good time to assess what the recovery will look like longer term, in the upcoming months and years. That is what our Fall Virtual School of Energy is all about. Before we get to the highlights of our findings, here’s a little bit about the format. While this will be our 14th School of Energy, it’s our third time going virtual, and what that means is that you’ll not only be able to attend the conference online in real time on October 20-21, asking questions as we go, but after the conference, all the materials will be available for replay, in whatever order you choose. So you can view the modules you want during the online sessions and go back to look at any other modules after the fact. That way, you can view the sessions that are of most interest to you RIGHT NOW! And it’s not too late to sign up. You can register, here.
US oil, gas rig count up by 13 to 336 on week, resuming double-digit leap: Enverus — The US oil and gas rig count rose by 13 to 336 on the week, rig data provider Enverus said Oct. 15, as activity ticked up on the heels of what experts say may be a final push to complete projects in 2020 with remaining capital budgets. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Oil rigs accounted for the bulk of increases, up 10 to 238, but natural gas rigs were also up by three to 98. "These modest week-on-week gains were expected," analyst Matthew Andre of S&P Global Platts Analytics said. "Relative to what we've seen for growth it's pretty good. I'm not sure we'll see [double-digit] rig gains every week for the rest of the year." Horizontal activity, a better indicator of shale activity since it focus on players drilling larger, more productive wells, has climbed recently and is now at 265, up by seven on the week – far past its long rangebound period in the 230s-240s from June through most of September. Since then, the horizontal rig count has ticked up steadily. "This relatively widespread recent stability increases our confidence that the horizontal activity trough is now indeed behind us, and we continue to expect to see further modest gains into year-end 2020," Tudor Pickering Holt said in its daily investor note Oct. 12. This past week is the highest the horizontal rig count has been since June, although it's still just about a third of its recent peak of 734 in late February 2020. Most domestic basins saw multiple rig gains on the week and none lost rigs. Biggest were the Permian Basin and the Marcellus Shale, which each increased by four rigs. That resulted in totals of 143 rigs in the Permian, sited in West Texas/New Mexico, and 29 in the Marcellus, a largely gas-prone basin mostly in Pennsylvania and neighboring states. In addition, the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas was up by three to 21, a volume not seen in the basin since mid-May. Also, the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana and DJ Basin of Colorado were each up by two rigs, for respective totals of 13 and six. The SCOOP/STACK play in Oklahoma and Utica Shale of Ohio held steady at 12 and seven rigs respectively. The gassy Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana was up one to 39, the most activity posted in that play since late March. All things considered, the relatively buoyant rig activity of the last week comes a week before Q3 earnings begin, which typically provides a glimpse into activity outlooks during the following few months and the rest of the year. This year's Q3 outlooks will be especially scrutinized since activity is sluggish from two full quarters of activity tamped down by the coronavirus pandemic, as operators slashed drilling rigs and their 2020 capital budgets beginning in March. The oil and gas rig count, at its July trough of 279, was down more than 65% from early March.
Is U.S. Shale Finally Bouncing Back? - - As the oil price dropped through the first and second quarters of this year, oil companies closed in wells and laid off drilling and fracking crews. Activity bottomed in late May and has mounted a steady recovery in the months since. Rig count increases have been moderate, rising from low of 251 in May to 269 as of the 5thof October. What has been more spectacular is the increase in the deployment of frac crews as operators have allocated capex to bring Drilled by Uncompleted, (DUCs) out of inventory and into production. The graph above shows the true impact of this trend, with frac crews more than doubling since May’s lows. The question before us now, is what can we expect through the rest of the year and on into 2021? In a recent OilPrice article I documented a relevant industry consolidation move by Schlumberger and Liberty Oilfield Services, I’ll let you follow the link provided for relevant details on the joint venture between these two companies. For a quick reference this creates the largest player in U.S. shale fracking with an estimated twenty percent of the available hydraulic horsepower, HHP in the industry today. In this article we are going to concentrate on some broader industry trends and I will have an updated recommendation for shares of LBRT as well. I was cautious on LBRT immediately after this merger as the share rocketed 40% higher in a single day. That move wasn’t something I wanted to chase. As the chart below indicates this caution was well advised as the stock sold off over the next few weeks, before regaining most of its early value. Over the last week the market action has taken the general oilfield lower, and now we think that LBRT represents a compelling value at current prices.
US Oil Production Has Already Passed Its Peak, Occidental (OXY) Says - America’s oil production will never again reach the record 13 million barrels a day set earlier this year, just before the pandemic devastated global demand, according to Occidental Petroleum Corp.“It’s just going to be too difficult to replace the 2 million barrels a day of production that we’ve lost, and then to further grow beyond that,” Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said Wednesday at the Energy Intelligence Forum. “Over the next three to four years there’s going to be moderate restoration of production, but not at high growth.”Occidental is one of the biggest producers in the U.S. shale industry, which added wells at such a rate prior to the spread of Covid-19 that the country became the world’s top crude producer, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia, ushering in an era that President Donald Trump called “American energy dominance.”Shale’s debt-fueled expansion came to a juddering halt due to lower gasoline demand and oil prices, but also because of Wall Street’s increasing reluctance to fund growth at any cost. Shale operators are increasingly prioritizing cash flow and returns to investors over production growth.Occidental, which vies with Chevron Corp. to be the biggest producer in the Permian Basin, has been forced to throttle back capital spending, lower growth targets and cut its dividend in a bid to save cash during the downturn. Its finances were already severely challenged by the debt taken on through its $37 billion purchase of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. last year.Hollub said global consumption stands at about 94 billion barrels a day, and it will take a Covid-19 vaccine before it returns to 100 million barrels. Due to cutbacks around the world, supply and demand for oil will likely balance again by the end of 2021, she said. Unlike some of her European peers, Hollub sees strong long-term demand for oil. “I expect we’ll get to peak supply before we get to peak demand,” she said.
With Bankruptcies Mounting, Faltering Oil and Gas Firms Are Leaving a Multi-billion Dollar Cleanup Bill to the Public | DeSmog - Amid a record wave of bankruptcies, the U.S. oil and gas industry is on the verge of defaulting on billions of dollars in environmental cleanup obligations. Even the largest companies in the industry appear to have few plans to properly clean up and plug oil and gas wells after the wells stop producing — despite being legally required to do so. While the bankruptcy process could be an opportunity to hold accountable either these firms, or the firms acquiring the assets via bankruptcy, it instead has offered more opportunities for companies to walk away from cleanup responsibilities — while often rewarding the same executives who bankrupted them. The results may be publicly funded cleanups of the millions of oil and gas wells that these companies have left behind. In a new report, Carbon Tracker, an independent climate-focused financial think tank, has estimated the costs to plug the 2.6 million documented onshore wells in the U.S. at $280 billion. This estimate does not include the costs to address an estimated 1.2 million undocumented wells.Greg Rogers, a former Big Oil advisor, and co-author of a previous Carbon Tracker report on the likely costs of properly shutting down shale wells, suggested to DeSmog that oil and gas companies have factored walking away from their cleanup responsibilities into their business planning.“The plan is that these costs will be transferred, these obligations will be transferred to the state at some point,” Rogers told DeSmog, “Why would a company want to go out and spend hundreds of millions of dollars plugging all of these wells when it could instead pay its executives?”Despite federal and state laws requiring oil and gas companies to clean up and properly cap and abandon wells, there is overwhelming evidence that this is not happening. One major reason why is that often, regulators lack the power to enforce compliance once the permits to drill the wells have been issued. The best method to guarantee the wells are properly capped and abandoned is for regulators to require the companies to put up the money to do that before the well is drilled. This is most often done via a process known as surety bonding. However, if the amount of money required for bonding is small enough, there is no incentive for companies to spend the additional money to properly cap the wells once the wells are no longer producing oil or gas. From a business standpoint, it is smarter for the well owner to walk away from the obligations at that point. The new report from Carbon Tracker also notes that current bonding monies allocated for well cleanup are equal to roughly only 1 percent of that total expected cost.
Oil, gas deal tracker: COVID-19 fallout stifled Q3'20 M&A -The pace of oil and gas M&A deal-making in the third quarter of 2020 remained well below year-ago levels as the industry reckoned with COVID-19's negative impacts on consumer demand and company balance sheets, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The sector announced 25 fewer whole-company and minority-stake deals than in the third quarter of 2019 — 88 deals compared to 113. In the same period, the combined value of deals rose by just over $100 million to $27.14 billion. The number of announced asset transactions, meanwhile, fell from 134 to 100 and their aggregate value declined $1.09 billion to $14.54 billion. The quarter saw five billion-dollar-plus transactions, with Chevron Corp. and Noble Energy Inc.'s $13.76 billion combination topping the list of biggest whole-company and minority-stake deals in 2020 so far and Berkshire Hathaway Energy's $9.75 billion purchase of Dominion Energy Inc.'s gas transmission and storage assets taking the first spot among asset-level deals. During the period, Devon Energy Corp. also announced a $5.79 billion acquisition of fellow independent driller WPX Energy Inc. and The Blackstone Group Inc. sold its roughly 40% stake in Cheniere Energy Partners LP to Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP for $3.48 billion. Smaller transactions included Southwestern Energy Co.'s $893.5 million purchase of Marcellus and Utica Shale driller Montage Resources Corp. and gas liquids producer Painted Pony Energy Ltd.'s $377.3 million merger with Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. In September, Schlumberger Ltd. agreed to merge its integrated completions services business with Liberty Oilfield Services Inc.'s fracturing and engineering operations for $427.8 million. According to 55% of oil and gas firms polled for the Kansas City Federal Reserve's third-quarter Energy Survey, constrained profitability will drive a massive increase in mergers and acquisitions through 2021. Momentum from upstream combinations is not expected to trickle down to the pipeline sector, however. Replicating that activity farther downstream presents "a lot more headwinds than tailwinds," according to Raymond James & Associates
Exxon's Latest Business Plan -- Drill, Baby, Drill - While many of the world’s largest oil companies are rushing ahead with plans to slash carbon emissions and transition to renewable energy, ExxonMobil is charting its own course, one that will help heat the Earth’s environment to the point where human beings will no longer be able to survive. One would think a business corporation would want to keep its customers alive but Exxon sees things differently. Scientific American, citing a report by E&E News, says Exxon’s latest business plan calls for a massive increase in drilling operations, all in the name of profits. Bloomberg did some digging and found the company’s internal projections suggest the new strategy will increase Exxon’s carbon emissions from 122 million metric tons in 2017 to 143 million metric tons by 2025. To put that in perspective, that’s the equivalent of 5 new coal powered generating facilities every year for the next 5 years. But that’s not the half of it. Those projections are for the company’s operations, not for the carbon released when all that lovely new oil is burned or turned into plastics, known in the industry as Scope 3 emissions. But wait, Exxon says. The emissions would be much higher if the company was not taking bold and decisive action to reduce methane leaks and lower emissions from its extraction technologies. Casey Norton, an Exxon spokesperson, challenged Bloomberg’s description of the numbers, saying they represented a projection of future greenhouse gas levels rather than a plan to increase emissions. “The emissions projection you cite is an early assessment that does not include additional mitigation and abatement measures that would have been considered as the next step in the process,” he said. “The same planning document illustrates how we have been successful in mitigating emissions in the past. As demand returns and capital investments resume, our growth plans will continue to include meaningful emission mitigation efforts.” Exxon is actually begging political leaders to impose a carbon tax. That may sound really progressive but it’s not. As Bloomberg points out in an e-mail, even with a carbon price of $40 a ton, average global temperatures will soar by 3º C or more, making the Earth inhospitable to most human life. But there’s a kicker. In exchange for accepting a carbon tax, it wants all regulations governing its industry dismantled. “For more than a decade, ExxonMobil has supported an economy-wide price on CO₂ emissions as an efficient policy mechanism to address greenhouse gas emissions,” Exxon said in a statement. “An effective carbon policy should replace the patchwork of literally thousands of regulations, laws and mandates today that have the effect of putting a price on carbon in a costly, inefficient way.”
Goldman says a Biden win could be a 'positive catalyst' for oil prices - Despite a grim demand outlook for energy as the coronavirus pandemic continues to weigh down the global economy, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on both oil and gas prices — regardless of the U.S. presidential election outcome in November. "We do not expect the upcoming U.S. elections to derail our bullish forecasts for oil and gas prices, with a Blue Wave likely to be in fact a positive catalyst," the bank's commodities team wrote in a research note Sunday. "Headwinds to U.S. oil and gas production would rise further under a Joe Biden administration, even if the candidate has struck a centrist tone," the note said. Goldman sees improved demand in 2021 and tighter supply for both gas and shale oil superseding election results, though a Biden administration could provide a further boost to oil prices by making production — especially for shale — more expensive and more regulated. If elected, Biden seeks to achieve a carbon pollution-free energy sector by 2035, and analysts expect his administration to impose regulations that would increase shale production costs with things like taxes and methane restrictions, which the Donald Trump administration had eased. Goldman estimates such taxes could increase costs by as much as $5 per barrel. And expected dollar weakness under Biden also provides upside risk to prices. VIDEO01:27 Oil prices to stay in $40-$45 range for the rest of 2020: Analyst While Biden has said that fracking would not be "on the chopping block," a Democratic administration could also move to reduce the scope for shale exploration with restrictions on federal land drilling and approvals for pipelines. The former vice president is currently leading incumbent Trump by double digits in major national polls. If Trump is re-elected, while pro-oil and gas policies would remain in place, "its impact would likely remain modest at best," Goldman's analysts wrote, "given the more powerful shift in investor focus to incorporate ESG metrics and the associated corporate
What the Frack? Why Waste Political Capital on a Pyrrhic Victory? - These days American politics are a little like Russian nesting dolls—there are stories, within stories, within stories. With just 22 days, 07 hours, and 30 minutes left until the November elections and Biden’s rising poll numbers, I’ve begun thinking in earnest about the chances of getting his $2 trillion[i] climate plan—or a reasonable facsimile— through Congress and back on the presidential desk for his signature. How Biden and progressive climate activists deal with fracking in the coming months could largely determine the possibility of putting the nation squarely on the path to long-term sustainability. I fear that too great a focus on fracking bans outside of federal lands—which is the current Biden position—could cancel the possibility of putting in place the government policies needed to decarbonize the economy in a timely fashion.As I will explain in a moment, the way forward need not force a binary vote on fracking. How is this possible? By doing what governments have always done best—kicking the can down the road—at least on this one issue. It may not be optimum, but it is likely to happen in a much shorter time than waiting for political forces finally to resolve.First off, to have any chance of that happening depends upon the Democrats keeping the House and flipping the Senate. All are well within the realm of possibilities. Should the Senate remain in the hands of Republicans, the nation would be looking at another two to four years of virtual gridlock and not just in the area of climate policy.Ill feelings run deep these days, and any pretense of bipartisan cooperation has been cast aside.Absent a deus ex machina or call to war against a common foreign enemy, it is difficult to conceive of any scenario in which a Republican Senate and a Democratic House and administration would work together to put an aggressive climate defense plan into motion. We already know what it means for the environment with a Democratic House, a Republican Senate, and Trump in the White House. It hurts me to write that. However, as President Trump likes to say–it is what it is.
US-Venezuela dispute delays oil storage transfer -- Eni's plan to drain a Venezuelan floating oil storage vessel considered a potential environmental risk has been delayed for weeks because of concerns over US sanctions on the Opec country.The Venezuela-flagged Nabarima floating storage and offloading unit (FSO) had been listing in August, with flooding reported by workers on and off the vessel. In early September, Eni said the vessel had been stabilized and a water leak resolved.The FSO, which is carrying at capacity of up to 1.3mn bl of crude, has been moored at the offshore Corocoro field in Venezuela's Gulf of Paria for 10 years.The field belongs to PetroSucre, a joint venture operated by Venezuelan state-owned PdV. Eni holds a minority 26pc stake.Caracas has denied any problems with the vessel. In a 5 September statement, PdV-controlled PetroSucre said the vessel posed no environmental risk and deemed the information about its lack of structural integrity as "fake news" aimed at justifying US sanctions. Since then, neither PdV nor the Venezuelan government has commented. It is not clear if a ship-to-ship transfer would require a specific OFAC waiver, or explicit assurances that the operation, carried out on safety and environmental grounds, would not violate the US sanctions regime. Nor is it clear if Eni would retain title to the oil to be able to use or sell it, and how PetroSucre would be paid. Venezuela's wary neighbor, Trinidad and Tobago, says it is waiting for Caracas to allow its inspectors on to the vessel.The inspection has been delayed "until a late-October date" that has yet to be agreed on with Caracas, the energy ministry told Argus yesterday.Trinidad had hoped a government team could have inspected the Nabarimabefore the end of September, but is still awaiting Venezuelan permission, the ministry said.The inspection is intended to ensure that Trinidad's waters are not in danger of a major oil spill, the ministry said.
Idled Venezuelan floating oil facility under repairs amid environmental concerns - source (Reuters) - An idled floating oil facility off Venezuela’s eastern coast is undergoing repairs, according to a person familiar with the matter, as images showing the crude-laden vessel at an incline have raised concerns about possible environmental hazards. The Nabarima floating storage and offloading (FSO) facility is operated by the Petrosucre joint venture between Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela [PDVSA.UL] and Italy's Eni ENI.MI. Petrosucre suspended output shortly after Washington sanctioned PDVSA in January 2019. About 1.3 million barrels of Corocoro crude have remained stuck on the vessel, which is located in the Paria Gulf between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The sanctions have deprived Petrosucre of its former main crude buyer, PDVSA’s U.S.-based refining subsidiary Citgo Petroleum Corp [PDVSAC.UL]. Gary Aboud, the corporate secretary of Trinidadian environmental group Fishermen and Friends of the Sea, said he was concerned about a potential oil spill, which would devastate the livelihoods of the country’s fishermen. “If this thing flips we will all pay the consequences for decades to come,” Aboud said in a Friday telephone interview. “This should be red alert.” A crew is currently replacing the vessel’s valves, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The source said the vessel is leaning to one side in order to facilitate the repairs.
Hundreds of liters of oil poured into the river in the Krasnoyarsk Territory - Hundreds of liters of oil products poured from the barge into the Angara in the Kezhemsky district of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. This is reported on website regional Ministry of Emergency Situations.The local administration has declared a state of emergency from 9 October. According to preliminary data, about 500 liters of diesel fuel got into the river. “There are no oil stains, the consequences have been eliminated. A group of representatives of the Investigative Committee, OMVD, UBEP, administration plus three rescuers left for the scene, ” RIA News in the administration of Kezhemsky district.According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, an emergency regime was also introduced on the territory of the Bolshemurtinsky District of the Yukseevsky Village Council in connection with an oil spill on the territory of the Sever enterprise. In early October, it became known about the appearance of a lot of dead fish and sea animals on the shore of Khalaktyrsky beach in Kamchatka and in three other bays. Phenol and oil products were detected in three areas of the Avacha Bay water area. Rosprirodnadzor did not rule out that the incident may have man-made reasons. The authorities in the region are considering the possibility of leakage of toxic substances or the release of toxins of biological origin.
Large oil slick discovered on Russias Volga River - The Volga River slick is at least the second oil spill reported in Russia this week. Vladimir Smirnov / TASS An oil slick the size of a hockey rink has been discovered on the Volga River north of Moscow, authorities said Wednesday, the latest instance of pollution to hit Russia’s waterways this year. The 5,000 square meter layer of fuel was spotted near the port of Kimry some 150 kilometers north of the Russian capital, Moscow transport investigators said in a statement. “The discharge of petrochemical products from a vessel currently being identified has presumably occurred,” it said. On the opposite end of the Volga River more than 1,000 kilometers to the south, residents of the city of Volgograd were reported to have found hundreds of dead catfish washed up on the shore of a local reservoir. They linked it to poachers discarding small fish. The Volga River slick is at least the second oil spill reported this week and comes less than five months after a massive diesel fuel-tank leak in the Arctic city of Norilsk triggered by melting permafrost. The oil spill discovery also comes amid continuing questions over what caused a mass die-off of sea creatures, including seals, octopuses, starfish and sea urchins, in the Far East Kamchatka region last month. Scientists said the event, increasingly believed to be caused by toxins from microalgae known as algal bloom, wiped out up to 95% of seabed life. The governor of the Kamchatka region said this week that scientists and witnesses reported seeing more dead marine animals washing up to the shore south of the initial discovery. He suggested the mass die-off was linked to climate change and other polluting effects on the Pacific Ocean. Greenpeace Russia said Wednesday that “none of the compounds found in water samples could have caused the serious consequences we’re observing.” “This means that both man-made and natural theories remain in the search for the cause of the environmental disaster,” the organization said.
Russia Expanding Energy Influence in Africa - Part of Russia’s engagement with Africa is military. The Russian army and Russian private military contractors linked to the Kremlin have expanded their global military footprint in Africa, seeking basing rights in a half dozen countries and inking military cooperation agreements with 28 African governments, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. U.S. officials estimate that around 400 Russian mercenaries operating in the Central African Republic (CAR), and Moscow recently delivered military equipment to support counterinsurgency operations in northern Mozambique. Russia is the largest arms exporter to Africa, accounting for 39 percent of arms transfers to the region in 2013-2017.The fact that the Russian ambassador to Mali, Igor Gromyko, was one of the first officials to be received by the Junta is thus unsurprising. Local media source aBamako.com reports that the military leaders of the coup had just spent a year training in Russia. While this kind of activity is not extraordinary, with countries such as the U.S. training armies from more than 20 African countries and shaping its military leaders, it indicates that Russia considers its security presence in Africa necessary. The coup is a blow to French diplomacy, as Paris had heavily invested in Mali security through a tight alliance with former Mali President, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. Keita’s time in office, which began in 2013 after a coup in 2012 ousted Amadou Toumani Toure, coincided with a French peacekeeping mission, and the Kremlin may seek to supplant France in West African countries whereParis has a stronghold and influence. Russia could also leverage the Mali coup to secure economic deals while bolstering its geopolitical standing in West Africa. According to FPRI, Russian nuclear energy giant Rosatom, which directly competeswith its French counterpart for contracts in the Sahel, could benefit from favorable relations with Mali’s new political authorities. Nordgold, a Russian gold company that has investments in Guinea and Burkina Faso, could also expand its extraction initiatives in Mali’s gold reserves.However, Professor Irina Filatova, Research Professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, who specializes in Russian Foreign Policy, insists on caution about assuming Russian interference in Malian politics: “It’s difficult for me to judge how reliable this information is because Moscow has said nothing about it.”
Methane emissions up in 2020 amid turbulent year for oil and gas - Methane emissions have jumped so far this year even as oil and gas production has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. The report from Kayrros, which analyzes methane leaks through satellite imagery, found visible methane emissions jumped 32 percent in the first eight months of 2020 when compared with the same period in 2019. The increase in methane is concerning because of its heat trapping powers — the gas is more than 80 times more potent than carbon emissions over a 20-year period. “Despite much talk of climate action by energy industry stakeholders, global methane emissions continue to increase steeply,” Antoine Rostand, president of Kayrros, said in a release. The U.S., Russia, Algeria, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq were the largest contributors according to the company’s analysis. Though the U.S. is a leading contributor, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in August rescinded its regulations on methane emissions. “Regulatory burdens put into place by the Obama-Biden Administration fell heavily on small and medium-sized energy businesses," EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said at the time, adding that doing so would give oil and gas companies “flexibility to satisfy leak-control requirements by complying with equivalent state rules.” Methane figures grew even higher in other oil and gas hot spots such as Algeria, Russia and Turkmenistan, where methane emissions jumped by more than 40 percent. The high methane levels come even as many companies agreed to scale back the production of oil as prices for the commodity plummeted amid a trade war and a halt on human activity due to the spread of the virus. Though greenhouse gas emissions, in general, dropped in the early days of the pandemic, scientists say they have nearly returned to pre-March levels.
MMEA- Oil spill detected in Tanjung Tuan waters up to Teluk Kemang in N. Sembilan — Contamination of seawater due to an oil spill was detected about three nautical miles off Tanjung Tuan here up to Teluk Kemang, Negri Sembilan, yesterday, according to the Melaka and Negri Sembilan Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA). Its director, Maritime Captain Haris Fadzillah Abdullah said the incident was detected by a Maritime patrol boat while patrolling the waters of Tanjung Tuan at about 11am yesterday. “The oil spill was detected in the waters of Tanjung Tuan about 1.3 nautical miles towards Pulau Perjudi and initial investigations found that the contamination was up to the waters of Teluk Kemang. “However, it did not appear that ships were dumping oil into the sea according to monitoring and patrolling by Maritime personnel around the scene,” he said in a statement here today. He said the Melaka Department of Environment (DOE), Negri Sembilan DOE and Teluk Kemang Fire Station had been informed of the incident, besides taking of the oil spill samples and cleaning up works being carried out. Commenting further, Haris Fadzillah said they have yet to confirm whether it was ships or other parties involved in the pollution and further investigations were ongoing. Meanwhile, he said monitoring, patrolling and enforcement operations to combat and prevent cross-border criminal activities in the waters of Melaka and Negri Sembilan would continue to be enhanced from time to time. The public could channel any criminal activities and emergencies at sea to the Maritime Operations Centre at 06-3876730 or 999 which operates 24 hours, he added.
Negri oil spill suspected to be from passing vessel - Clearing of an oil slick that was swept ashore at Pantai Cermin here will commence full-scale today and work is expected to take at least a week to complete. Sources at the Negri Sembilan Department of Environment (DOE) said the contamination’s origin is yet to be ascertained although it is suspected to be from a passing vessel. It is learnt that the DOE is expected to carry out an assessment to determine if the oil spill had caused any damage to marine life in the affected area. The DOE also collected samples of the spill for testing. The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency reported it had carried out patrols in the area but did not spot any vessel responsible for dumping oil products into the sea. The strong fumes from the oil slick extending over 2km between Tanjung Tuan and Teluk Kemang drew the attention of passers-by early on Monday before the authorities were alerted. The fine for polluting the environment will be raised 20 times to RM10 million under an amendment to the Environmental Quality Act 1974, Environment and Water Minister Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said, after visiting the oil spill site yesterday The amendment is expected to be tabled for debate in the Dewan Rakyat next month. The current maximum fine for the same offence is RM500,000. “The jail term will also be lengthened under the proposed amendment,” Tuan Ibrahim said, adding that the case is being investigated under Section 27 of the Environmental Quality Act.
Lanka court imposes fine of USD 64,972 on Greek captain of fire-damaged oil tanker - A Sri Lankan high court on Wednesday ordered the Greek captain of an oil tanker, which carried crude oil from Kuwait to India and caught fire off the country''s eastern Ampara coast, to pay a fine of USD 64,972 after he pleaded guilty to the marine environment pollution charge. The Panamanian-registered New Diamond was carrying 270,000 metric tonnes of crude oil from Kuwait to India when a boiler explosion in its engine room caused fire on September 3. The Sri Lanka Navy with the help from the Indian Navy and coast guards doused the fire after three days. Two Sri Lankan naval ships, one Indian naval ship and three Indian coast guard vessels were deployed in the operations. Last week, Sri Lanka indicted the Greek captain for causing the oil spill under the country’s Marine Pollution Prevention Act. Captain Sterio Illias pleaded guilty to the marine environment pollution charge at the Colombo High Court. Accordingly, a fine of Sri Lankan Rs 12 million (USD 64,972) was levied, court officials said. He appeared before the court on September 28 for negligence and not putting in place safety measures to prevent fire on board. The captain was barred from leaving the country although no remand order was served on him in spite of a state request. The tanker had 23 crew members - 18 Filipinos and five Greeks. Twenty-two of its 23-member crew had been safely rescued off the tanker.
BP and Petronas Achieve First Gas from Oman Field - BP reported Monday that it has begun production from the Ghazeer field in the Omani desert ahead of schedule. The Ghazeer start-up occurred less than three years after production began from another field in Oman’s Block 61: the Khazzan field, BP noted in a written statement. BP holds a 60-percent stake in Block 61, located in Oman’s remote interior. The company’s partners include Makarim Gas Development Limited (OQ) (30-percent interest) and PETRONAS (10 percent). According to BP, the Ghazeer field development incorporates major advances in efficiency and working practices. It added the project also features flaring reduction techniques similar to those developed in the U.S. onshore, reducing emissions during on-site well testing. The company stated that “green completions” sent hydrocarbons during testing to a production facility rather than flaring them. “When we introduced our plans to reinvent BP, we were clear that to deliver them, we have to perform as we transform,” commented BP CEO Bernard Looney. “There are few better examples of how we are doing just that than Ghazeer. This project has been delivered with capital discipline four months early, wells are being drilled in record times and, importantly, safety performance has been excellent.” With Ghazeer online, BP pointed out that Block 61’s production capacity should rise to 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day and more than 65,000 barrels per day of associated condensate. The firm also noted the block’s estimated recoverable gas resources amount to an estimated 10.5 trillion cubic feet.
Uptick in LNG demand this winter - LNG demand is expected to increase by 4 billion cubic metres (bcm) this winter and that’s led by growth in China, Japan, and South Asia. “LNG supply is expected to grow by 3 bcm led by the United States. And when we put together demand and supply forecast, we expect the LNG market to be slightly tighter than last winter by 1 bcm,” noted Refinitiv Representatives at the latest GECF Monthly Gas Lecture. However, there remained several risks to the forecasts, foremost of which are winter temperatures and coronavirus pandemic. The former was unusually warm last winter for the northern hemisphere, dampening LNG demand. In the case of the latter, the full-blown effect of Covid-19 is unclear particularly as it is currently worsening in many countries and levelling off in others. Held via videoconference on October 6 and entitled ‘Winter Outlook for Global LNG – Cautiously Optimistic’, company analysts sifted through the demand and supply outlook and their relationship with market’s balance and pricing dynamics. Recognising the importance of scientifically drawn forecasts – a hallmark of the GECF and epitomised in its annual Global Gas Outlook 20050 –Secretary General Yury Sentyurin said: “In many ways, Covid-19 has highlighted the importance of data so we can map and understand the economic and social effects of pandemic-related measures. This belief in the supremacy of data to generate valuable insights can be found in the DNA of both the Forum and Refinitiv.” “The GECF data is distinguished, for it is based on our Member Countries’ primary sources of information. This is why we regularly share our data externally, such as in the Opec World Oil Outlook, at the IEA-IEF-Opec Symposiums on Energy Outlooks, and through our participation in JODI-Gas World Database, so the gas industry can grow and thrive.” The audience at the lecture series further heard that accurate planning for the period ahead depends on not just weather but myriad factors such as government policies that can often change the course of LNG demand and pricing. For instance, the team of lecturers shared that the story of LNG played out vastly differently last winter in Japan and South Korea, the world’s largest and third largest LNG buyers, respectively. In Japan, LNG import declined by about 4% due to the mildest winter on record in addition to an industrial demand that was hit by Covid-19 in Q1 of 2020. In contrast, South Korea saw an uptick of about 7% in LNG import due to the government policy of turning off coal-fired power plants between December and March to improve air quality; March alone witnessed the shuttering of 28 coal-fired power plants, stimulating gas for power demand.
Turkey to revise upward estimate of Black Sea gas discovery - Turkey is preparing to revise upward its estimate of its natural gas discovery in the Black Sea, Bloomberg reported, citing sources with direct knowledge of the plans. The country is said to be preparing to update the amount as soon as this week after further exploration drilling is completed, Bloomberg said on Friday, citing the sources. The Turkish government is about to disclose a “sizable revision” to the initial estimate, they noted. Turkey in August announced its biggest natural gas discovery, a 320 billion-cubic-meter field in the Black Sea that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said is part of even bigger reserves and could come onstream as soon as 2023. “This reserve is actually part of a much bigger source. God willing, much more will come,” Erdoğan said. “There will be no stopping until we become a net exporter in energy.” Turkey currently imports nearly all of its energy needs, and the discovery is promised to help drive down its current account deficit. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Dönmez on several occasions said data suggested more natural gas would be found as drilling continues deeper under the seabed. A senior energy ministry official in September said that Turkey hopes to announce the new discovery in October. Earlier this month, Dönmez said that Turkey’s third drillship would also be deployed and begin exploration for natural resources in the Black Sea in the first months of 2021. “We hope to begin operations in the first months of next year, and with that, Kanuni will be working together with the Fatih drillship in the Black Sea,” Dönmez said. Kanuni will support the Fatih drillship, which found the 320 billion-cubic-meter natural gas field some 100 nautical miles north of the Turkish coast.
Libya May Double Oil Output Next Week -- Libya took a major step toward reviving its battered oil industry by reopening its biggest field, presenting a new headache for OPEC+ as the alliance of major producers tries to curb global supplies. The National Oil Corp., Libya’s state energy company, lifted force majeure on the western deposit of Sharara and instructed its operator to resume production, according to a statement on Sunday. The field will initially pump 40,000 barrels of crude a day, before reaching its capacity of almost 300,000 barrels next week, a person with knowledge of the situation said. That would double overall output in Libya to around 600,000 barrels daily, said the person, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak to media. Crude from Sharara has begun reaching storage tanks at the port of Zawiya, another person said. Sharara’s reopening follows a truce in Libya’s long-running civil war that’s already led to many oil fields and ports in the east starting up after an almost total shutdown since January. The NOC didn’t mention the nearby deposit of El Feel, or Elephant in Arabic. The 70,000-barrel-a-day field normally follows Sharara’s shutdowns and restarts because it relies on electricity from its bigger neighbor to operate. Libya is an OPEC+ member and home to Africa’s largest crude reserves. But it’s exempt from the group’s supply cuts, initiated in May as the coronavirus pandemic stifled economies and caused oil prices to tank. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, planned to ease the curbs by 2 millions barrels a day from the start of 2021. Yet with virus cases accelerating in many countries, the cartel faces a difficult decision at its next policy meeting on Nov. 30-Dec. 1: whether to stay the course or delay the increase in production. Benchmark Brent crude has more than doubled to around $42.25 a barrel since May, but it’s still down 36% this year. “The Libyan oil restart is gaining momentum faster than most people expected,” The likelihood of more Libyan exports is “an additional headwind for OPEC at a time when it is already grappling with softer than expected demand as the second wave of Covid-19 intensifies.” JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts that production will rise to 1 million barrels daily by March.
J.P. Morgan sees Saudi Arabia offering deeper oil cuts --A worsening global oil demand outlook will prompt OPEC to reverse a planned easing of oil cuts in 2021 with Saudi Arabia offering deeper cuts below its current quota, J.P. Morgan said in a research note.“Against relatively bearish investor sentiment on the near-term demand outlook as COVID-19 potentially accelerates infections into winter, we highlight the potential for Saudi to drive incremental cuts at the Nov. 30 OPEC meeting,” analysts including Christyan Malek said in a note. “Our base case is a reversal of the 1.9 million barrels per day output increase slated for 2021 with an upside scenario of a deeper cut whereby Saudi reduces its own quotas even lower (in the event of a worsening demand outlook),” J.P. Morgan said.
Why Saudi Arabia May Be Forced To Start Another Oil Price War - The ongoing weakness of global oil markets seems to be stoking tensions within OPEC+, and a split within its leadership is now imminent. From the start of this year’s Moscow-Riyadh brokered OPEC+ production cut deal, internal differences have been kept at bay by a global pandemic and high crude oil storage volume. Market optimism now seems to be growing, from bullish reports about next year’s crude oil prices and even today’s IEA World Energy 2020 Report. But the reality of oil markets is far bleaker. The threat of European lockdowns is real, hitting global demand again while taking a heavy toll on the economy.Nobody is speaking about a new oil price war yet, but the writing is on the wall with some producers now fed up with strangling their own production to counter the overproduction of others. Asian importers, especially China and India, have been reaping the rewards of this low price environment, filling their oil storage tanks to the brim. Although most Asian importers now seem to be content with storage. An OECD economic downturn will put several million barrels per day of expected Asian demand at risk. It is a worrying time for the two main architects of the OPEC+ agreement. One could say that Riyadh and Moscow are caught in a Catch22 situation, as whatever they try to do, the market is likely too weak to react and will come back to hurt both parties. Saudi Arabia, supported by its main ally UAE, and Russia are both looking at a financial crash of unknown magnitude if oil markets don’t recover soon. Oil prices are currently too low to sustain the government strategy of both nations. The latest reports on the Saudi government budget, which is based on a $50 per barrel scenario, is realistically too optimistic, as prices right now are in the low $40s. For Russia, its economy has been hit from all sides, as oil and gas is weak, demand worldwide is down, and the diversification of its economy is stalling. Putin’s maneuverability, however, is higher than that of the Saudi rulers. Russia’s global power position still opens doors to make life bearable in the coming months. Saudi Arabia, however, is looking at a situation in which a straightforward strategy does not seem to exist. Without higher crude oil prices, not only is the Kingdom’s flagship Saudi Aramco suffering but most government projects too. The world’s largest oil company has already put several major new projects on hold, while at the same time reassessing investment levels of others. High-profile offshore projects, such as the Red Sea or the setup of the new shipyard in Ras Al Khair, are not progressing as fast anymore, showing some internal constraints.
Oil prices extend slide as U.S. producers restore output (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday as force majeure at Libya’s largest oilfield was lifted, a Norwegian strike affecting production ended and U.S. producers began restoring output after Hurricane Delta. Brent crude fell 52 cents, or 1.2%, to $42.33 a barrel by 1052 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 was down 58 cents, or 1.4%, at $40.02. Production in Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is expected to rise to 355,000 barrels per day (bpd) after force majeure at the Sharara oilfield was lifted on Sunday. Rising Libyan output will pose a challenge to OPEC+ - a group comprising OPEC and allies including Russia - and its efforts to curb supply to support prices. “If oil demand recovery continues to struggle due to new or stricter COVID-related mitigation measures, the (OPEC+) producer group may need to reconsider the planned tapering of their voluntary supply cuts,” Front-month prices for both contracts gained more than 9% last week in the biggest weekly rise for Brent since June. But both fell on Friday after Norwegian oil companies struck a deal with labour union officials to end a strike that had threatened to cut the country’s oil and gas output by close to 25%. Hurricane Delta, which dealt the greatest blow to U.S. Gulf of Mexico energy production in 15 years, was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone at the weekend. Workers headed back to production platforms on Sunday and French oil major Total TOTF.PA was working to restart its 225,500 barrel per day Port Arthur refinery in Texas. Prices were also pressured by a jump in new COVID-19 cases, which has raised the spectre of more lockdowns. Infections are at record levels in the U.S. Midwest and in Britain Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce new measures on Monday while Italy is preparing fresh nationwide restrictions. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election would not impact its bullish oil and natural gas outlook and that an overwhelming Democratic victory could be a positive catalyst for these sectors.
Oil falls nearly 3% as production comes back online - Oil prices fell about 3% on Monday as force majeure at Libya's largest oilfield was lifted, a Norwegian strike affecting production ended and U.S. producers began restoring output after Hurricane Delta. Brent crude fell $1.21, or 2.8%, to $41.64 a barrel West Texas Intermediate fell 2.88%, or $1.17, to settle at $39.43 per barrel. "Renewed post hurricane production in the Gulf of Mexico, an apparent restart over the weekend of Libya's largest oil field and today's strength in the U.S. dollar increase the possibility of a WTI downswing back to the early October lows," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates. Hurricane Delta, which inflicted the biggest blow in 15 years to energy production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico last week, was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone at the weekend. Workers headed back to production platforms on Sunday and French oil major Total restarted its 225,500 barrel per day Port Arthur refinery in Texas. Front-month prices for both contracts gained more than 9% last week in the biggest weekly rise for Brent since June. But both fell on Friday after Norwegian oil companies struck a deal with labour union officials to end a strike that had threatened to cut the country's oil and gas output by close to 25%. Production in Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is expected to rise to 355,000 barrels per day (bpd) after force majeure at the Sharara oilfield was lifted on Sunday. Rising Libyan output will pose a challenge to OPEC+ - a group comprising OPEC and allies including Russia - and its efforts to curb supply to support prices. Prices were also pressured by a jump in new COVID-19 cases, which has raised the spectre of more lockdowns which could dampen demand for oil. Infections are at record levels in the U.S. Midwest. In Europe, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new coronavirus lockdown measures and Italy is preparing fresh nationwide restrictions.
Oil gains nearly 2% as robust China trade data offsets returning supply Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, supported by robust economic data from China that offset returning supply in other regions but gains were capped by forecasts for a slow recovery in global oil demand as coronavirus cases rise. Brent crude futures were up 72 cents, or 1.7%, to $42.44 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 77 cents, or 1.95%, higher at $40.20 per barrel. On Monday, both benchmarks fell nearly 3%. China, the world's top crude oil importer, took in 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in September, up 5.5% from August and up 17.5% from a year earlier, but still below the record high level of 12.94 mln bpd in June, customs data showed. "Oil prices, which suffered quite a blow the previous day, were looking for a bright spot and Tuesday offered just that," said Rystad Energy's senior oil markets analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu. "We find that China's record haul of crude growth is poised to cease as independent refineries have nearly fully utilized their state-issued import quotas and companies struggle with extremely high crude inventories. Therefore, despite the initial enthusiasm, we find that the uptick in oil prices today is unjustified." The International Energy Agency (IEA) - which advises Western governments on energy policy - said in its World Energy Outlook that in its central scenario a vaccine and therapeutics could mean the global economy rebounds in 2021 and energy demand recovers by 2023. But under a "delayed recovery scenario," it said the energy demand recovery is pushed back to 2025. "The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end within the next 10 years, but in the absence in a large shift in government policies, I don't see a clear sign of a peak," IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also forecast a slower demand recovery on Tuesday. In a monthly report, it said oil demand will rise by 6.54 million bpd next year to 96.84 million bpd, 80,000 bpd less than expected a month ago. Social restrictions were being tightened in Britain and the Czech Republic to battle rising cases of COVID-19, and French Prime Minister Jean Castex said he could not rule out local lockdowns. On the supply side, workers have been returning to U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms after Hurricane Delta and Norwegian workers to offshore rigs after ending a strike. The energy minister from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said on Tuesday that OPEC+ oil producers will stick to their plans to taper oil production cuts from January. OPEC member Libya on Sunday also lifted force majeure at its Sharara oilfield. Libya's total output on Monday was expected to hit 355,000 bpd while a full return of the 300,000 bpd Sharara field would nearly double that.
Oil rises 2% as OPEC complies with production cuts (Reuters) - Oil prices strengthened on Wednesday, as OPEC and its allies were seen complying with a pact to cut oil supply in September, even as concerns loomed that recovery in fuel demand will be stalled by soaring global coronavirus cases. Early in the day crude was boosted by a bullish stock market. Even as equities whipsawed on pandemic worries, oil stayed higher, buoyed by expectations that OPEC could staunch a supply glut. Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Wednesday, supported by heavyweight technology stocks. The dollar traded lower, which can boost oil as investors switch asset classes. “Between the dollar, the EIA and the warning from the IEA that may impact future OPEC policy, the tone has turned bullish here,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)is expected to show crude oil stockpiles moving lower in the latest week, according to analysts polled by Reuters. The American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected in the latest week, according to a report released after market close on Wednesday. Analysts expect the U.S. Energy Information Administration data to confirm that draw on Thursday, a Reuters poll showed. Brent crude futures LCOc1 for December delivery settled up 87 cents, or 2.05%, at $43.32 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 futures also traded higher, settling up 84 cents, 2.09%, at $41.04 a barrel. OPEC+ had 100% compliance with a pact to cut oil supply in September was seen at 102%, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
WTI Holds Above $41 After Large Crude & Product Inventory Draws - Oil prices rallied today on the back of a weaker dollar and somewhat optimistic report from IEA, which decided to leave its 2020 forecast for oil demand unchanged at 91.7 million barrels per day while painting a picture of contracting supply, penciling in a 4-million-barrel-a-day drop in the fourth quarter.But there is a lot of noise in the data still... "Inventories are famously all over the board as a hurricane comes in," . Hurricane Delta made landfall on Louisiana's Gulf Coast last week. The supply numbers "will be skewed enough and will cause more confusion than really shed any light." But the algos will get triggered one way of the other... API
- Crude -5.422mm (-2.3mm exp)
- Cushing +2.199mm
- Gasoline -1.513mm (-1.8mm exp)
- Distillates -3.93mm (-2.5mm exp)
After last week's surprise crude build, analysts continue to expect another draw and got a really big one (-5.42mm vs 2.3mm exp). Products also showed notable draws... Graphs Source: Bloomberg WTI hovered around $41 ahead of the print and held those gains after the bigf draws... Going forward, OPEC+ members "will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach and not pursue new policies, since the market seems to be in balance and they will be cautious not to mess with the fragile recovery recently achieved," said Manish Raj, chief financial officer at Velandera Energy."OPEC+ has shown its willingness to step in to rebalance the market, should that be necessary, but they will not risk prematurely tilting the balance in either direction," he told MarketWatch.
Oil jumps 2% ahead of U.S. inventory data - Oil prices strengthened on Wednesday, as equities also rose and the dollar traded lower, even as concerns loomed that recovery in fuel demand will be stalled by soaring global coronavirus cases. Wall Street's main indexes opened higher on Wednesday, supported by heavyweight technology stocks. The dollar traded lower, which can boost oil as investors switch asset classes. "Between the dollar, the EIA and the warning from the IEA that may impact future OPEC policy, the tone has turned bullish here," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to show crude oil stockpiles moving lower in the latest week, according to analysts polled by Reuters Brent crude futures for December delivery were up 49 cents, or 1.18%, at $42.94 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures settled 84 cents, or 2.1%, higher at $41.04 per barrel. "There is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in COVID-19 cases in many countries," the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. "The longer term offers little encouragement for producers; the curve shows prices not reaching $50 per barrel until 2023. Truly, those wishing to bring about a tighter oil market are looking at a moving target." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its oil demand forecast on Tuesday, citing economic dislocations caused by the virus. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that leading oil producers will start easing output curbs as planned in January despite a spike in coronavirus cases. U.S. crude oil inventories were seen falling last week while distillate stockpiles are likely to have declined for a fourth week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Both reports were delayed by a day because of a public holiday in the United States on Monday.
Oil slips as new lockdown measures threaten demand recovery - Oil prices slipped on Thursday as new restrictions to stem a surge in COVID-19 infections increased uncertainty over the outlook for economic growth and a recovery in fuel demand. But prices bounced off their lows after better-than-expected inventory data. Brent futures fell 25 cents, or 0.6%, to trade at $43.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $40.83 per barrel. Traders noted the price decline was limited by industry data showing a fall in U.S. oil inventories last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that inventory declined by 3.818 million barrels in the prior week, larger than the 1.9 million barrel draw analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting. The American Petroleum Institute industry group on Wednesday said U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell in the week to Oct. 9. Some European countries are reviving curfews and lockdowns to try to contain the rise in new coronavirus cases, with Britain expected to impose tougher COVID-19 restrictions on London from midnight on Friday. "If demand weakens noticeably, OPEC+ will have no choice but to call off its production increase if it does not want to risk a renewed oversupply and another price slide," Commerzbank said. OPEC and its allies, together called OPEC+, are due to taper production cuts by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), from 7.7 million bpd currently, in January. OPEC+ had 102% compliance with its agreement to cut oil supply in September, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters ahead of a technical committee meeting on Thursday. The group will ensure oil prices do not plunge steeply again when it meets to set policy at the end of November, OPEC's Secretary General said, adding that demand has been recovering more slowly than expected. Top global oil traders Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said they saw slow oil demand recovery because of a second coronavirus wave with oil prices rising to or above $50 per barrel only by October next year. "Toxic brew of COVID-19 lockdowns, especially in Europe, and the apparent end of any hopes for a U.S. stimulus deal before the election are weighing on risk assets," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.
WTI Pops Back Above $40 After Biggest Distillates Draw Since 2003 -Oil prices plunged overnight, with WTI back below $40, as last night's bullish API-reported bigger-than-expected draw was trumped by traders fears that weaker than expected US jobs data and new virus restrictions in Europe will further threaten any sustained demand rebound. U.S. labor market data is providing “more fuel for the fire of a sour economic outlook,” said Gary Cunningham, a director at Tradition Energy. “If there are further restrictions or new restrictions put in place in Europe or here in the U.S., then that further decreases travel demand for petroleum.” DOE
- Crude -3.818mm (-2.3mm exp)
- Cushing +2.906mm
- Gasoline -1.626mm (-1.8mm exp)
- Distillates -7.245mm (-2.5mm exp) - biggest draw since 2003
Official data showed a crude draw that was smaller than API reported, a big build at Cushing, and a huge draw in Distillates (biggest since 2003)... US Crude production remains noisy given the storm-related impacts, with shut-ins sending production levels down 500k barrels per day... Latest EIA data indicate drilling activities remain anemic in September, even as WTI recovered to near $40 per barrel. WTI traded just below $40 ahead of the official inventory data, popping back above $40 after the draws...
Oil eases as new lockdowns raise concern about fuel demand - (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Thursday as new restrictions to stem a surge in COVID-19 infections dimmed the outlook for economic growth and fuel demand. Traders said prices pared earlier losses after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in U.S. petroleum demand last week that helped reduce crude stockpiles, while distillate inventories dropped by the most since 2003 as Hurricane Delta cut oil production and shut Gulf Coast refineries. “The (EIA) report halted the (price) slide, which was threatening to turn into an avalanche earlier this morning,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. Brent LCOc1 futures fell 16 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $43.16 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $40.96. Earlier, both benchmarks were down more than $1 a barrel. In Europe, some countries were reviving curfews and lockdowns to fight a surge in new coronavirus cases, with Britain imposing tougher COVID-19 restrictions in London on Friday. “The coronavirus surge is forcing Europe to reinstate pandemic restrictions and that is ... crippling short-term crude demand forecasts,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. “Anemic demand will force (OPEC+) to delay any easing of oil production cuts.” OPEC and allies in a group called OPEC+ are due to taper production cuts in January by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), from 7.7 million bpd currently. A Joint Technical Committee, which includes representatives from key OPEC+ producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, met to review compliance with its global oil output cuts. OPEC+ made little progress in September in compensating for over-production in previous months, figures given to Reuters by OPEC sources showed on Thursday. “It’s apparent ... that Saudi Arabia is getting impatient, both with the lack of compliance by others and “low” oil prices,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy. OPEC’s Secretary General said demand was recovering more slowly than expected and OPEC+ will ensure oil prices do not plunge steeply again when it meets at the end of November. Top global oil traders Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said they saw slow oil demand recovery because of the resurgent pandemic.
Oil prices end a bit lower, but nearly erase their losses as U.S. supplies decline – Oil futures settled a bit lower on Thursday, as rising cases of COVID-19 sparked new lockdowns in Europe, raising worries about further slowdowns in energy demand. Prices, however, nearly erased the day’s losses, buoyed by U.S. government data showing a bigger-than-expected 3.8 million-barrel weekly decline in domestic crude inventories reported MarketWatch. November West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $40.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global benchmark, December Brent crude shed 16 cents, or 0.4%, to $43.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. “COVID-19 reports will continue to rule the daily volatility,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “In the longer term, there is a lot of upward pressure building,” as prices are not high enough to “encourage sufficient drilling to offset U.S. production declines,” he said, adding that demand will likely recover faster than U.S. output.
Oil slides on Covid-19 resurgence, strong dollar - Oil prices slid on Friday dragged down by concerns that a spike in Covid-19 cases in Europe and the United States is curtailing demand in two of the world's biggest fuel consuming regions, while a stronger U.S. dollar also added to pressure. Brent crude futures for December dropped 46 cents, or 1.07%, to $42.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery slid 43 cents, or 1.05%, to $40.53 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell slightly the previous day and are on track to remain little changed for the week. "Worries over weakening fuel demand in Europe due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and a higher U.S. dollar against the euro weighed on investor sentiment," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Co. In Europe, some countries were reviving curfews and lockdowns to fight a surge in new coronavirus cases, with Britain imposing tougher Covid-19 restrictions in London on Friday. Pandemic cases have surged in the U.S. Midwest and beyond, with new infections and hospitalizations rising to record levels in an ominous sign of a nationwide resurgence as temperatures get colder. The dollar was headed for its best week of the month on Friday, as surging coronavirus cases and stalled progress toward U.S. stimulus had nervous investors seeking safe assets. A technical committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied oil producers, a group know as OPEC+, also ended a meeting on Thursday expressing concerns about rising oil supply as social restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 limit fuel usage. "All eyes are on OPEC+ move from January," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities. OPEC+ is set to reduce its current supply cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd in January even as OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo admits fuel demand is looking "anemic." The bearish demand outlook and rising supply from Libya may mean OPEC+ could roll over the existing cuts into next year, OPEC+ sources said on Thursday. There is an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Nov. 30 to Dec. 1 to set policy. "With uncertainty over OPEC+ future policy and the U.S. presidential election, oil prices will likely remain in a tight range for a while,"
Oil ends lower on demand concerns, but prices score a gain on the week - Oil futures slipped a bit on Friday as rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe heightened worries about demand for crude, but prices finished higher for the week, partly due to assurances from OPEC+ that it remains committed to production cuts. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, seem “to have comforted markets that they are leading the oil market to balance,” s Oil prices found support for the week after Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly reiterated their commitment to the OPEC+ production cut agreement. That raised expectations that “the alliance might take further action to either address some of its members’ undercompliance or re-evaluate its plan to boost production again from January,” “If these hopes prove futile then prices may be in danger again next week after the OPEC+ meeting.” The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee, or JMMC, which monitors compliance with production cuts, is scheduled to meet on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery CL.1, -0.24% fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $40.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for the front-month contract, which expires at Tuesday’s settlement, posted a weekly rise of 0.7%. Read: Here’s how the U.S. presidential election could shake up the oil market December Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 23 cents, or 0.5%, to $42.93 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Brent saw a 0.2% weekly climb. Moya warned, however, that “Libya’s oil production revival might complicate the supply side narrative.” Bloomberg reported Thursday that Libya’s output has climbed to around 500,000 barrels per day, after the reopening of facilities last month that had been shutdown since January due to a blockade related to the civil war. Meanwhile, “the market is worried about how the increasing lockdown measures in Europe will affect demand,” . “Mobility data suggests that travel has only recovered to 60% of its pre-pandemic levels in Europe, and it’s about to get a new hit as several European countries restrict gatherings again.” “The not-too distant memory of negative oil prices still stings traders across the space as the threat of another supply chain crunch would rise exponentially with expectations of new lockdown measures being imposed in the U.S.,” Still, “more widespread lockdowns do remain rather unlikely.”
Lebanon explosion: Deadly fuel tank blast rocks Beirut – BBC - A fuel tank has exploded in a densely populated area of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, killing at least four people and injuring 20. The blast occurred after the tank caught fire in Tariq-al-Jdide district. TV footage showed flames leaping up buildings in the area's narrow streets. There is no word on the cause of the fire. The rescue efforts are ongoing. The blast caused panic in a city scarred by the explosion that killed 203 people in the port area in August. The latest fire and explosion also comes amid a severe financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic - which have fuelled widespread discontent. On Friday firefighters used ladders to scale the outside of apartment buildings to rescue residents from their balconies. "The sound and our house shaking made us panic and the whole street I live in started screaming. I had flashbacks," tweeted one woman.
Aden seaport authorities demand hire charge before dumping fertilizers -- Seaport authorities in Aden continue to store urea fertilizer despite an order to dump the hazardous material, government officials said Saturday. In August, a committee assigned by Yemen’s attorney general to investigate reports of thousands of tons of ammonium nitrate being stored at the port found that the material was in fact a different fertilizer, urea. It ordered the seaport authority to get rid of it as it could explode if mixed with other materials. The investigation followed a media report about ammonium nitrate gathering dust at the port that could cause a massive explosion, similar to the one that ravaged Beirut on Aug. 4. The story caused uproar and panic in Yemen, prompting lawmakers, government officials and the public into demanding a quick investigation. When asked why the judiciary order had not been followed, Mohammed Amzrabeh, chairman of the Yemen Gulf of Aden Ports Corporation, told Arab News that the case was in court, without giving further details. But, according to two local government officials familiar with knowledge of the case, seaport authorities are demanding that a local trader who imported the materials pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in hire charge for storing the urea. “The seaport authorities seek a financial settlement with the trader,” one of the officials, who requested anonymity, told Arab News. “The materials have expired and no longer pose a threat to anyone.” The Saudi-led Arab coalition and the internationally recognized government have asked local traders to get permission before importing urea fertilizer, widely seen as an explosive material that could be used by the Houthis for military purposes.
U.N. access to decaying Yemen tanker could take weeks - (Reuters) - A United Nations team will have to wait several weeks to access a deteriorating tanker off Yemen’s shore that is threatening to spill 1.1 million barrels of crude oil in the Red Sea, two U.N. sources told Reuters. The United Nations has warned that the Safer, stranded since 2015, could spill four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster near Alaska, but access to the vessel has been complicated by the war in Yemen. Yemen’s Houthi movement, which controls the area where the tanker is moored and the national oil firm that owns it, agreed in July to allow a technical team to assess the ship and conduct whatever repairs may be feasible. But the two sources said that it could take another seven weeks to finalise details of the agreement and logistics, with the coronavirus pandemic further complicating planning. The deal includes the eventual sale of the oil on board with proceeds divided between Houthi authorities and Yemen’s internationally recognised government, which the movement ousted from the capital, Sanaa, in late 2014. Some diplomats say there are still doubts about the mission as Houthi officials had last year reneged on granting access. The Safer, built in 1974, is moored off the Ras Issa oil terminal, 60 km (40 miles) north of the port of Hodeidah. The area is held by the Houthis, but the high seas are controlled by a Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015 against the movement and has prevented it from selling oil. U.N. and Houthi officials say water has entered the Safer’s engine room at least twice since 2015. The latest leak in May was plugged by Safer Corp divers and Houthi naval units. While the Houthis can fix small leaks it remains unclear how long such repairs can hold, U.N. officials and experts said. Last month, Riyadh warned that an “oil spot” was seen in a shipping transit area 31 miles (50 km) west of the tanker. The United Nations says a major rupture could severely harm Red Sea ecosystems and shut Hodeidah port, Yemen’s main entry point for imports and aid.
Aframax mine blast off Yemen puts shipping on alert - Shipping has been put on alert to be highly vigilant when transiting the Gulf of Aden with news of an aframax tanker suffering sizeable damage after it struck a sea mine in Yemeni waters. Significant pollution has been spotted in satellite images in the wake of the Syra, a 10-year-old Maltese-flagged ship, hitting a mine just before midnight on October 3.The ship was taking on crude at the Bir Ali crude single buoy mooring system, located in central Yemeni waters when the explosion happened. Security consultant Ambrey Intelligence has suggested the incident was likely a symptom of the ongoing battle between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council, a secessionist organisation. Ambrey senior analyst Jake Longworth told Splash that no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.“The war risk rating for Bir Ali and Ash Shihr – Yemen’s only operational export terminals – has been raised to elevated. This is due to the credible risk that the actor behind the attack on the Syra attempts to disrupt any future exports from Yemen using the same tactic,” Longworth said.. Officials at Eastmed declined to comment on the damages sustained to the ship when contacted by Splash today. Splash understands the tanker suffered damage to its forward ballast tanks, but has been able to move on its own power and is due to arrive in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates later today where its cargo will be transferred and then the ship will head for repairs. Eyewitness reports sent to Splash show significant hull damage to the ship, which is carrying around 65,000 tons of crude.
Britain: The world’s second largest arms exporter and friend to warmongers and despots - According to data released by the Department for International Trade (DIT), the UK government was the world’s second biggest arms exporter behind the US between 2010-2019. Britain signed £86 billion worth of contracts for military equipment and services. Last year, Britain exported £11 billion worth of fighter jets, radar, missiles, arms, and materiel, the second highest year for UK arms sales since 1983. While the US was by far the largest arms exporter, accounting for 47 percent of the global arms trade, the UK accounted for 16 percent, while Russia and France had 11 percent and 10 percent respectively. Sales were down from 2018’s £14 billion due to what DIT said was “the volatile nature of the global export market for defence.” The UK won “no major platform orders in 2019” and arms exports to Saudi Arabia were halted in June last year, following the Court of Appeal’s ruling that the UK government had failed to take into account whether Saudi airstrikes in Yemen that targeted civilians broke humanitarian law. While the US is Britain’s largest single arms customer, most of Britain’s arms exports (60 percent) go to the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia by far the largest buyer along with Oman, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Israel, Bahrain, and Egypt. The UK government had no hesitation in greenlighting the sale of arms to countries waging war at home or abroad, including to Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Afghanistan, UAE, Nigeria, Mexico, Iraq, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, and South Sudan. The list of Britain’s customers reads like a roll call of the most corrupt and blood-soaked regimes on the planet. The UK has licensed more than £6.5 billion worth of arms to the Saudi-led coalition in the five years since March 26, 2015, when the bombing began. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the Saudi-led war against Yemen—waged with the full backing of Washington and London—has killed over 100,000 people, mostly civilians.
Delivery Of 2 Million Flu Vaccines To Iran Blocked By US Sanctions On Banks -Last Thursday the US Treasury announced fresh sanctions on 18 Iranian banks in order to “stop illicit access to U.S. dollars” — a move widely seen as the most aggressive and devastating measure against Iran's financial sector to date. Given it effectively blacklists the entire Iranian financial system, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to proactively address European allies and international critics' concerns that this would only massively increase the suffering of the common Iranian people amid a raging pandemic. His statement last week vowed that certain exemptions will "continue to allow for humanitarian transactions to support the Iranian people."But now Iranian health officials say they've been prevented by US sanctions from importing 2 million influenza vaccines, amid a desperate and deteriorating health crisis inside the country.Iran’s Red Crescent says due to the new US sanctions against Iranian banks, the humanitarian organization is not able to purchase two million doses of flu vaccines that were supposed to be distributed for vaccination of medical staff, high risk patients and pregnant mothers. https://t.co/7Tl9Wgw8wh— Zahra Shafei (@shafei_d) October 14, 2020 Iran’s Red Crescent Society announced on Twitter that new US sanctions on Shahr Bank are to blame. The bank is reportedly largely responsible for foreign-currency purchases of drugs, but has now “been sanctioned by the U.S. government and the vaccines haven’t reached the Red Crescent.”According to Bloomberg, this has left the health organization scrambling: The Red Crescent said it was attempting to source replacement vaccines through neighboring countries. Some 200,000 flu doses had been delivered to the ministries of health and education, the organization said in a subsequent tweet, without giving more details.Iran's leaders have been outraged, also alleging over the past days the United States has intentionally severely exacerbated the impact of the coronavirus pandemic inside the Islamic Republic, essentially kicking the country while it's already down, choking off even humanitarian and medical supplies via sanctions and threats against those willing to trade with Iran.“Amid Covid19 pandemic, U.S. regime wants to blow up our remaining channels to pay for food & medicine,” Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted last week. “Iranians WILL survive this latest of cruelties.”
Russian-brokered ceasefire in Azeri-Armenian war collapses - Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to broker a truce in the two-week-old war between Azerbaijan and Armenia collapsed over the weekend. Fighting erupted between the two former Soviet republics in the Caucasus five minutes after the agreement reached by Azeri and Armenian diplomats in Moscow was to go into effect, at noon on Saturday. Bombings of civilian targets on both sides, and bloodshed along the front and in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region all continue to mount. The Kremlin had invited delegations from the Azeri and Armenian foreign ministries on October 9 to Moscow, declaring: “The President of Russia is issuing a call to halt the fighting in the Nagorno-Karabakh on humanitarian grounds in order to exchange dead bodies and prisoners.” French President Emmanuel Macron, who has aggressively backed Armenia, also called for a cease-fire. Armenian officials went to the talks, reversing their stated position that they would only attend talks if a cease-fire was first agreed to. Shortly before talks began in Moscow, however, officials in both Azerbaijan and its main regional backer, Turkey, said they would make no compromises. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin bluntly predicted that the Moscow talks would be a failure. “If they’re calling only for a ceasefire, if they’re working only towards a ceasefire, it will be nothing more than a repeat of what went on for the last 30 years or so,” he said. Restating the Turkish government’s position that Armenia illegally occupies the Karabakh, Kalin added: “It is almost certain to fail if it doesn’t also involve a detailed plan to end the occupation.” Azeri President Ilham Aliyev gave a televised address to the nation insisting he would make no concessions to Armenia. Aliyev said, “Azerbaijan’s use of force had changed the facts on the ground” and that has “proved there was a military solution to the dispute,” Reuters reported. He added that these negotiations were Armenia’s “last chance” to peacefully resolve the conflict. Aliyev added that Azeri forces had taken the communities of Hadrut, Chayli, Yukhari Guzlak, Gorazilli, Gishlag, Garajalli, Afandilar, Suleymanli and Sur in the Karabakh, calling it a “historic victory.” He reported that Armenian-held Fuzuli province in Azerbaijan had also been surrounded, and that Azeri forces had left a small escape route through which Armenians were leaving.
Turkey Weapons Sales To Azerbaijan Witnessed Huge Surge Just Before Armenia Conflict - New figures produced by the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly and subject of an investigation by Reuters show a massive surge in Turkish weapons exports to its ally Azerbaijan just ahead of the raging conflict sparked late last month in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region."Turkey’s military exports to its ally Azerbaijan have risen six-fold this year, with sales of drones and other military equipment rising to $77 million last month alone before fighting broke out over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to exports data," reports Reuters. It's a massive figure for the tiny Caucasus country of just less than ten million people. The data shows that over the first nine months of 2020 Turkey sold Azerbaijan $123 million in defense and aviation equipment. But this ramped up significantly by August once clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces, which have been sporadic and fierce since the early 1990's collapse of the Soviet Union and self-declared autonomy of ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh, grew more intense at the end of the summer. According to the report: Most of the purchases of drones, rocket launchers, ammunition and other weapons arrived were after July, when border clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces prompted Turkey and Azerbaijan to conduct joint military exercises. Sales jumped from $278,880 in the month of July to $36 million in the month of August, and $77.1 million in just September, the data showed. Other major suppliers of Azerbaijan's military have included Russia and Israel. Russia also has a defense pact with Armenia, including a major base in the country's north.
In "Major Escalation" Turkey Renews Gas Exploration Off Greece, Vows Military Escort - In late September into early this month for a brief moment it looked as if the Turkey-Greece East Mediterranean dispute over Turkish hydrocarbons exploration was cooling, given intense diplomatic contacts and negotiations among the major players, which includes Cyprus and the EU. This after in August and earlier last month the rival sides conducted increased war games which threatened at any moment to become 'live' fighting.But now this momentary calm has been shattered, as Turkey's navy late Sunday issued a public advisory saying it will sail the Oruc Reis survey ship to conduct exploration activities just off Greece's easternmost island of Kastellorizo. Turkey indicated the mission is planned over the next ten days, until October 22. Predictably, Athens was swift to condemn the move as a “major escalation and a direct threat to peace and security in the region,” according to a Foreign Ministry statement. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis notified the European Council by phone, at a moment the EU has threatened sanctions on NATO country Turkey. “This new unilateral act is a severe escalation on Turkey’s part,” Mitsotakis said.Like in prior instances of Turkish oil and gas vessels being sent into Greek and Cypriot waters widely recognized internationally as their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), Ankara has vowed a military escort could be present if “support and protection” are necessary, according to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias has used this latest provocative act to highlight a pattern of Turkish aggression spanning the entire near East region: “I explained the obvious, who is the common denominator in all problematic situations in the area: Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, the southeastern Mediterranean,” he said.
China Exports Supercharged by Medical Equipment and Work-From-Home Gear – WSJ —China’s exports and imports both posted strong gains in September, as a recovery in global and domestic demand provided another boost to the world’s second-largest economy. China’s imports from global markets jumped 13.2% in September from a year earlier after falling 2.1% in August, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. Exports topped market expectations for a sixth straight month, rising 9.9% from a year earlier in September—the quickest pace in more than a year—as China continued to benefit from coronavirus-fueled demand for medical equipment and work-from-home electronic products. Taken together, the strong trade figures point to a robust recovery that most economists expect will show China regaining its pre-coronavirus growth trajectory of between 5% and 6% when it reports third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Monday—and through the end of the year. “In coming months, we expect the export strength to persist and imports may also continue to expand on the back of continued recovery in domestic activity,” Goldman Sachs economists told clients in a note Tuesday. China’s surprisingly strong import number reflects improving domestic demand and Beijing’s willingness to fulfill commitments made in the phase one trade deal signed with the U.S. in January, which includes promises by China to buy more American agricultural and energy products. China’s purchases from its top three trading partners accelerated rapidly last month, with imports from the U.S. rebounding by the largest margin. China’s imports from the U.S. soared 24.8% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from a 1.8% increase in August. Though the coronavirus has upended economies around the world this year and contributed to China falling well short of the purchase commitments it made in January, American and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed their commitment to the trade deal during a telephone call in late August.
China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From Pandemic, IMF Says – WSJ - The global economic collapse caused by the coronavirus won’t be as severe as estimated earlier, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday, thanks to strong government intervention world-wide and a swift recovery in China. The world’s gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, not as sharp as the 5.2% drop the IMF projected in June but still the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. World output will grow 5.2% in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of 5.4%.
China Releases Another Military Propaganda Video Invading Taiwan -China has threatened to “seize an island” presumed to be Taiwan during a live-fire drill video widely circulated in its media. The video marks the fourth threatening military propaganda film that the Chinese military has released in under six months. In the recently released video which was syndicated by state broadcaster CCTV (China Central Television) on Saturday, troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can be seen simulating an attack on an unidentified island during a large-scale military exercise. The video is 2 minutes and 35 seconds long complete with dramatic music matched to a montage of military drills held by China, The Telegraph reported.The military maneuvers coincided with Taiwan celebrating a holiday known as National Day.The footage comes as political tensions between China and Taiwan have spiked to a new high after Beijing aired a purported confession from a Taiwanese businessman who is held captive by Chinese authorities on spying charges, Dailymail reported.It’s also worth mentioning that last month, China sent 18 fighter jets and bombers into the Taiwan Strait in a show of force that a military official in Beijing said was a warning to Taiwan and the United States about their increasing political and military cooperation within the region, The New York Times reported.This buzz by fighter jets was amid a meeting with a diplomatic official Keith Krach, the undersecretary of state for economic, energy and environmental affairs.“Those who play with fire are bound to get burned,” Senior Col. Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said at a briefing in Beijing, warning the United States and Taiwan against what he called “collusion.”This follows another mysterious meeting by a higher-up official in July-August, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar.Upon Azar’s visit to Taiwan, Chinese state media angrily threatened to retaliate by holding live-fire missile drills near Taiwan and Guam. Simultaneously last month, Chinese aircraft crossed what’s known as the “mid-line” and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, prompting Taiwan to scramble jets to intercept them. A Twitter account by the Defense Ministry has been archiving all the incidents see: “@MoNDefense.” Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen previously called China a threat to the entire region.The Taiwan Defense Ministry reports, China has threatened or entered into Taiwan’s airspace 46 times in just nine days, the island’s defense ministry said, in a statement, Aljazeera reported. China claims Taiwan is its territory and threatens to use military force to bring under its control the island that is a self-governing democracy and close U.S. ally, CBS reported.
Xi Jinping Tells Elite Troops Prepare For War As US Destroyer Sails Through Taiwan Strait - China has again put its military in a "high state of alert" after two US Navy warships recently sailed through the Taiwan Strait. Late last week the US destroyer John McCain sailed near the disputed Paracel Islands administered and militarized by China, upon which the PLA military warned the US to "halt its provocations".The latest incident was Wednesday, when the Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry passed through the strait. Washington was quick to emphasize that it was a “routine transit” like others toward the purpose of peaceful 'freedom of navigation' operations, while Beijing once again denounced the "trouble-stirring statements and moves". State-backed Global Times said the USS Barry transit resulted in assets from China's Eastern Theater Command being mobilized. It "organized naval and air forces and tracked and monitored the USS Barry destroyer for the entire course when the U.S. warship sailed through the Taiwan Straits on Wednesday," according to GT.The PLA's Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui said: "We sternly urge the U.S. to stop making trouble-stirring statements and moves. The command forces are always on high alert in resolutely safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits."These latest tensions based on US presence in the contested sea lanes cased the PLA military to be put on alert. While this is nothing new Chinese President Xi Jinping's language has grown more threatening in referencing talk of war.
Mumbai's millions get their power back after massive outage (Reuters) - Millions went without power in India’s financial capital Mumbai and surrounding areas for hours on Monday, after a grid failure triggered its first major blackout in more than two years. The outage stranded thousands of train passengers, disrupted online college exams and affected mobile telephone services before power was restored to most parts of the city of some 20 million. The grid failure was caused by “technical problems” during maintenance work, the energy minister of Mumbai’s home state of Maharashtra said. In mid-2018, a fire at a transformer sparked similar power cuts in the city and its suburbs. Throughout Monday’s breakdown, Mumbai’s international airport and the country’s two main stock exchanges located in the city, the National Stock Exchange and BSE, operated normally, their spokespeople said. “Power supply to all essential services in Mumbai, suburbs ... have been restored. Non-essential services will also be restored shortly,” Maharashtra energy minister Nitin Raut said on Twitter. The government-run Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport agency, Adani Power Ltd and Tata Power Co Ltd - the three main suppliers to Mumbai - had all been affected by the outage that extended to hospitals, many of which are treating COVID-19 patients. Hospitals and other institutions in India have over the years banked on emergency diesel power generators as a backup due to frequent outages caused by demand outstripping supply. The situation has improved in the big cities but the countryside still has to live with frequent power cuts.
India announces economic stimulus to boost demand by $10 billion (Reuters) - India on Monday announced steps to stimulate consumer demand, including advance payment of a part of the wages of federal government employees during the festival season and more capital spending as it tries to bolster the pandemic-hit economy. The government will allow its employees to spend tax-exempt travel allowances on goods and services, Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s finance minister told a news briefing. She said the government will also shore up investment by spending extra 250 billion rupees ($3.41 billion)on roads, ports and defence projects, and offering 120 billion rupees in interest-free 50-year loans to state governments for spending on infrastructure before March 31,2021. “All these measures are likely to create an additional demand of 730 billion rupees ($9.96 billion),” Sitharaman said, adding the proposals would stimulate demand in a “fiscally prudent way.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which imposed a tough lockdown to stem the spread of the coronavirus in March, is pushing ahead with a full opening to try to boost the economy ahead of the usually high-spending festival season, which runs from October to March. The latest package would not require any extra borrowing by the federal government, Tarun Bajaj, economic affairs secretary at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters. India’s federal government said last month it would stick to revised borrowing target of 12 trillion rupees ($163.78 billion) in the current fiscal year ending March, against an earlier estimate of 7.8 trillion rupees. India’s total coronavirus cases have crossed 7.12 million, second only to the United States, with deaths reaching 109,150. The Reserve Bank of India left key policy rates unchanged on Friday, while retaining an accommodative monetary stance to support an economy that is projected to contract by almost 10% in the current fiscal year.
Jobs bloodbath in Australia continues as companies restructure to slash costs - Thousands of jobs continue to be shed across Australia as companies continue to restructure their operations to slash costs in a bid to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and maintain profits. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the unemployment rate is currently 6.8 percent, down from a 22-year high of 7.5 percent in July. The ABS monthly jobs survey, however, understates the real levels of joblessness by counting as employed anyone who has worked for just one hour a week. A more reliable indicator of current levels of joblessness is provided by Roy Morgan Research. According to its September survey, 1.83 million people were unemployed or 12.9 percent of the workforce. An additional 1.33 million or 9.4 percent were under-employed—i.e., working but seeking more hours. In total, a massive 3.16 million, 22.3 percent, were unemployed or under-employed. The real rate of unemployment is also obscured by the federal Liberal government’s JobKeeper scheme under which employers originally received $1,500 per fortnight to keep employees on their books, even when they have been stood down. The government scheme was introduced in April, when COVID-19 restrictions were being imposed and out of fear that the looming depression levels on unemployment would provoke social explosions. Unemployment levels are set to leap dramatically as the JobKeeper payment is wound up at the end of March next year, having already been reduced to $1,200. According to Natasha Hawker, director of Employees Matter, the end of JobKeeper will leave workers exposed to a “redundancy bloodbath.” She told the media that for smaller businesses—“for whom cash flow is vital”—JobKeeper “has been like a ventilator but the oxygen is about to be turned off, and some businesses won’t survive without life support.” Those employees now being thrown out of work will also face increasing financial hardship as the federal government moves to end the JobSeeker unemployment benefit that it introduced in the first months of the pandemic, doubling the previous social security payment. The JobSeeker benefit has now been slashed by $300 to $815.70 a fortnight, and will revert to the old poverty-level $282.85 a week payment from January.
Australian citizens stranded by COVID-19 measures denounce Morrison government - While the Australian government has slightly increased the number of stranded citizens allowed to return home, it has done little to assist those trapped overseas by COVID-19 measures. Currently, some 24,000 people have registered their intention of returning, but according to the Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA), the real number is over 100,000. They confront extortionate airline ticket prices, months-long delays and a lack of government support. Last month, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that international arrival restrictions would be gradually lifted from 4,000 a week, introduced in mid-July, to 6,000 per week by October 12. Canberra, however, has refused to provide any substantial aid or support. Ian Giles, a casual fly-in, fly-out mine worker, has been stuck in Thailand after a 12-day holiday in March. He explained that he had eight flight cancellations between March and September and rejected airline claims that the ticket price gouging was solely a result of caps on international arrivals imposed by the Australian government. “The airlines started putting the prices up way before the government put the caps on in July. They started ratcheting up their prices on the day we were told to come home by our government, on March 16. “In the first week of April, flights from Patong to Australia were like $5,000 plus—this was the cheapest option. Some of the prices went from $500 to $800 to $8,000, and even $10,000 and beyond, at least a tenfold increase,” he said. “What’s worse, the Australian government hasn’t provided repatriation flights from Thailand. Even Colombia organised flights to pick up their citizens stranded in Thailand.”Sandi James, a qualified psychologist and schoolteacher, is one of the estimated 30,000 Australians stranded in the UK after travelling there for a job-related conference. She was due to fly into Malaysia in late March to start work at a university. James said she had booked a ticket in April to return to her family in Australia in July on the first available flight, but the booking was cancelled, as was the next one.
James Murdoch, the son of Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch, says he walked away from family media empire because it legitimizes disinformation and obscures facts --James Murdoch, the son of the Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch, said he left his father's media empire because it obscured facts and legitimized disinformation.In an interview with The New York Times, Murdoch for the first time discussed the reasons for his decision to depart the board of News Corp, the media company owned by his father, which controls publications including The Wall Street Journal and the New York Post as well as several publications in the elder Murdoch's native Australia. His father's other company, Fox Corporation, owns the Fox News network, which is run by his brother, Lachlan Murdoch."I reached the conclusion that you can venerate a contest of ideas, if you will, and we all do and that's important," Murdoch said in the interview. "But it shouldn't be in a way that hides agendas. A contest of ideas shouldn't be used to legitimize disinformation. And I think it's often taken advantage of. And I think at great news organizations, the mission really should be to introduce fact to disperse doubt — not to sow doubt, to obscure fact, if you will." Murdoch announced in July that he was resigning his position at News Corp, having previously told The New Yorker about his unease with coverage at Fox News. Top-rated hosts on the network are ardent supporters of President Donald Trump, and the network has spread misinformation about the coronavirus and climate change. News Corp's Australian papers have also published articles questioning the reality of climate change after devastating wildfires in the country last year. In a statement to The Daily Beast earlier in 2020, James Murdoch and his wife, Kathryn, had criticized the "ongoing denial among the news outlets in Australia" as well as on Fox News. James Murdoch was the top executive at News Corp's UK wing in 2011 when the company's phone-hacking scandal broke. Reporters at British tabloids owned by the company illegally accessed the phones of celebrities, public figures, and crime victims. In a July statement, Murdoch announced that he was leaving News Corp "due to disagreements over certain editorial content published by the Company's news outlets and certain other strategic decisions." He said he was setting up a foundation, Quadrivium, that would support democracy, voter participation, and climate-change projects.
UN World Food Program Needs $6.8 Billion to Avoid COVID-19 Famine - The UN World Food Program (WFP) said on Tuesday that will need to raise $6.8 billion over the next six months to avert famine triggered by the coronavirus pandemic crisis. "We've got a lot more money to raise to make certain we avert famine," David Beasley, executive director of the WFP, said at a conference organized by the U.N's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Beasley said 7 million people had died from hunger this year, even as the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a further 1 million lives worldwide. But he warned that the pandemic would make things worse in the long term. "If we don't sort out COVID, (the) hunger death rate could be 3, 4, 5 times that," said Beasley.World hunger was on the decline for several decades, but is it now on the rise again since 2016, driven by both conflict and climate change."If you think about the wealth on Earth today we shouldn't see one single child (go) hungry or die from starvation," said Beasley.The organization was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last week for its efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict. German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the organization and called on world nations to join in a renewed fight against hunger. The UN food agency is the world's largest humanitarian organization and it is entirely funded by donations. In 2019, the money it raised funded school meals for 17.3 million children globally and delivered 4.2 million tonnes of food to regions or countries. Beasley is now urging donors, including governments and institutions, but also the more than 2,000 billionaires in the world - who hold a combined net worth of $8 trillion - to donate to the WFP. The organization has so far raised $1.6 billion, far below the target needed this year.
Coronavirus Pandemic Could Pose ‘Major Resilience Test’ for Global Financial System, IMF Says – WSJ —Huge government spending and other steps to boost coronavirus-stricken economies have limited immediate risks to global financial stability while fueling a debt buildup that could spell trouble later, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. “The COVID-19 pandemic could be a major resilience test for the global financial system,” the IMF economists wrote in the Global Financial Stability Report. “Triggers such as new virus outbreaks, policy missteps, or other shocks could interact with pre existing vulnerabilities and tip the economy into a more adverse scenario.” Companies that borrowed heavily at low interest rates to cope with the crisis may have trouble paying their debts, the report said, increasing the risk of bankruptcies. The danger is particularly acute among smaller companies that don’t have easy access to capital markets, it said. Under such a scenario, bankruptcies could prompt an increase in borrowing and a tightening of bank lending standards, creating headwinds to a recovery, the IMF said. The impact could be especially severe in Europe, where small and medium-size firms account for more than half of total output and two-thirds of employments, the report said. Thanks to the regulatory overhaul that followed the 2008 financial crisis, banks entered the downturn with strong capital and liquidity buffers, IMF economists said. Even so, they warned, the banking system in some nations may suffer “significant capital shortfalls” due to increases in defaults among businesses and households. The IMF also addressed risks among so-called nonbank financial institutions, like asset managers and insurance companies, which have assumed an increasingly important role in credit markets. “They have managed to cope with the pandemic-induced market turmoil thanks to policy support, but fragilities, such as liquidity mismatches and exposure to credit risks, remain high,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, wrote in a blog post. “At some point, fragilities could spread through the entire financial system.” The IMF urged countries to maintain easy policies to ensure a sustainable recovery, while at the same time strengthening the regulatory framework for the nonbank financial sector and containing excessive risk-taking as interest rates remain low.
Pandemic Response Will Drive Up Global Public Debt to a Record, IMF Says – WSJ —Spending by the world’s governments to fight the coronavirus and the global economic downturn will propel public debt to a record level, the International Monetary Fund said, adding that more will be needed to assure a full recovery. Governments have committed $11.7 trillion, or 12% of global output, as of Sept. 11, the IMF said in its semiannual Fiscal Monitor report. That will drive up budget deficits by 9% of gross domestic product on average this year, with cumulative public debt approaching 100% of global GDP. “The fiscal action taken by the authorities around the world is truly unprecedented and decisive, and extremely important in avoiding a financial and economic collapse,” Vitor Gaspar, director of IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, said in an interview. The measures include direct spending, tax cuts, loans and guarantees and direct equity injections. Central banks, in addition to cutting interest rates, have also provided $7.5 trillion in stimulus with purchases of government and corporate securities. Advanced economies and large emerging markets account for the bulk of the response, in part because they can take advantage of historically low interest rates to finance deficits, the fund said. The IMF expects the global debt ratio to stabilize next year around 100% of GDP, thanks to continued low rates and a global economic rebound as the pandemic subsides. Debt levels are expected to rise in the U.S. and China. “This implies that for us, high public debt levels are not the most immediate risk,” Mr. Gaspar said at a press conference Wednesday. “The near-term priority is to avoid premature withdrawal of fiscal support. Support should persist at least into 2021 to sustain the recovery and limit long-term scarring.” The hefty fiscal spending during the pandemic has increased the ratio of public debt to GDP in the U.S. by more than 20 percentage points to slightly above 130%. Still, Mr. Gaspar said, the U.S. has room for further fiscal spending to support the recovery. The world economy is forecast to contract by 4.4% this year, the IMF said Tuesday, not as much as the 5.2% drop it projected in June but still the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. World output will grow 5.2% in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of 5.4%. In Wednesday’s report, IMF economists warned that essential support to provide short-term aid has longer-term implications. For example, wage subsidies help to keep workers attached to employers but may slow the movement of workers from ailing companies to healthier ones.
Former Chilean Health Minster charged with falsifying COVID-19 figures - Charges that Chile’s former health minister, Jaime Mañalich, manipulated the data on coronavirus infections and deaths have deepened the profound crisis of political rule that has gripped the country since the end of last year. They further confirm that the ultra-right government of billionaire President Sebastian Piñera criminally mishandled the pandemic, inflicting disproportionate suffering upon the most oppressed layers, including the working class, the elderly and the indigenous population. This criminal negligence is graphically illustrated by a recent report revealing that one quarter of those who have died from COVID-19 did so without ever being hospitalized. A total of 3,491 mainly elderly citizens who, although developing serious conditions due to COVID-19, were never admitted to hospital, and died outside the health system.Investigative news site CIPER published last week a detailed account of affidavits submitted to public prosecutors by Health Ministry employees at the end of September. In damning testimony, Johanna Acevedo, the head of the ministry’s Health Planning Division (known as DIPLAS) and Andrea Albagli from the Department of Epidemiology, substantiated accusations that Mañalich consciously and deliberately manipulated figures and lied to the public. They also affirmed that his cabinet advisors—Paula Daza, the present under-secretary of public health, and Itziar Linazasoro, former Health Ministry chief of staff—were aware of the alterations. Acevedo told public prosecutors that, at the request of the ministry, her department’s epidemiological reports had to be “adjusted” to match those reported daily by Mañalich who had his own parallel tallying system. “I had to... adjust the data from the epidemiological reports to what (the ministry) announced,” Acevedo told the prosecutors. DIPLAS’s public reports “had to be consistent with what was reported by the authority. I always reported everything to the authority, internally, but the published epidemiological reports had to be consistent with the information that the minister announced in the public account.” Acevedo explained that DIPLAS records are based on Epivigila—the health ministry’s software that records infections reported by doctors and that of the country’s regional ministerial health secretariats—and the databases of the laboratories reporting positive PCR tests. DIPLAS works on the basis of criteria set down by international bodies such the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization, whereas the former minister used an unknown and unrecognized tallying system.
A Q4 GDP Contraction Will Soon Become The Base Case In Europe - In France, earlier this week, the Local reported “the metropole areas of Lille, Lyon, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne have joined Paris and its suburbs and the Aix-Marseille area on maximum alert.” It added “the new designations will take place from Saturday morning and will see the closure of all bars in those areas, although restaurants can remain open under strict new conditions.” In addition, two other areas, namely Toulouse and Montpellier, were described as “worrying” by Health minister Olivier Véran, in his weekly briefing on Thursday evening. The ministry reported more than 20,000 new infections on Friday (highest since methodology changed in May and tests increased significantly) but most importantly, new cases for people aged above 69, a good leading indicator to forecast hospitalizations, kept increasing sharply. In Spain, Bloomberg highlighted that “the Madrid region extended travel restrictions Saturday to four communities that hadn’t been covered by the national government’s state of emergency for the capital the day before. The order forbids inhabitants of those zones to leave except for essential activities such as traveling to work, school or visiting a doctor.” Authories moved quickly ahead of a holiday weekend, with Spaniards celebrating their national day on Monday.In Germany, AP noted Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday held talks with the mayors of Germany’s 11 biggest cities. Merkel said she and the mayors “have agreed on measures to slow the spread of the virus by ensuring that social distancing and hygiene rules are respected and contact tracing can continue — despite the growing number of infections Germany is now experiencing.” Elsewhere, Bloomberg (citing Dutch news agency ANP) underlined “the Netherlands reported 6,504 cases, a daily record and rising above 6,000 for the first time“. In this context, the Dutch government is meeting Sunday to discuss stricter measures to combat the spreading of the virus. Yet, the Daily Mail already flagged that “government warned it would be forced to impose tighter restrictions by the end of the weekend if infections did not start to drop.” In the U.K., ministers are mulling new restrictions in areas of northern England where the coronavirus is spreading fastest. BBC reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is likely to announce a three-tier local lockdown system as soon as Monday. As a result, I expect several EU countries to experience a GDP contraction in 4Q especially those who already faced a contraction in the services sector in September, such as France and Spain. The deterioration seen in Markit PMIs is also coherent with high frequency data that I’m looking for in the hospitality sector, which confirmed a downturn since mid-August. Therefore, I think that the Bloomberg consensus for 4Q GDP looks very optimistic for several European countries including France (+1.5%) and Spain (+2.6%) and will probably turn negative before year-end.
Italy to Join France and U.K. With Curbs as Cases Hit Record - Italy is considering new restrictions on public life as fresh curbs on movement took effect in London and Paris in Europe’s escalating efforts to check its coronavirus surge while limiting economic harm.Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is planning to announce the new measures on Sunday, according to a statement from his office. Londoners are now banned from mixing with other households indoors, while people in Paris and eight other French cities are confined to home between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. for four weeks.The increased restrictions come as new cases hit daily records across much of Europe. Italy reported 10,925 new infections on Saturday, the U.K. had 16,171 and Germany posted 7,695. Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to her citizens to meet with fewer people indoors or outdoors.“How winter and Christmas work out will be decided in the coming days and weeks through the sum of individual actions,” Merkel said in her weekly podcast, stressing the importance of refraining from unnecessary journeys and celebrations.Italy’s Lombardy region, which includes Milan, has reined in alcohol consumption and gambling, and Conte’s government may order bars and restaurants to close at 10 p.m., ban some sporting activities and change hours for high schools to prevent congestion, according to government officials, who asked not to be identified in line with their policy. After broad lockdowns triggered some of the worst recessions in living memory, European officials are eager to stick to local restrictions targeted mainly at urban virus hot spots this time around. But with Europe heading into the winter, when people will be unable to spend as much time outdoors and transmission rates are likely to rise, getting back to normal appears some way off.
French universities enforce de facto herd immunity policy on COVID-19 - As part of its murderous herd immunity policy, the French government forced universities and schools to reopen with a near full program of in-person instruction in early September. The government’s aggressive university reopening campaign has benefitted from the critical support of the unions and pseudo-left political organizations. In the month since the reopening, COVID-19 cases in France have accelerated rapidly, quadrupling from 4,982 cases per day on September 1 to 20,330 on October 9. As early as September 13, 12 clusters were reported at universities throughout the country, and on October 2, Fredérique Vidal, the minister for Higher Education, Research and Innovation, admitted 40 French higher education institutions were closed due to outbreaks. A recent report from the UK showed that half of new infections were from schools and universities, exposing the causal link between reopening and the spread of COVID-19 in the wider population. Young people act as the primary spreaders of disease through the population and, contrary to pseudo-scientific claims promoted by the bourgeois media, are themselves vulnerable to the virus. Official government data shows that since the beginning of the pandemic, at least 40 people under the age of 30 have died from COVID-19 in France. Underlining the risk to college students, in September an otherwise healthy 19-year-old studentin the US developed neurological complications from COVID-19 and tragically died. In response to the rising tide of cases at universities, on October 5 Vidal’s ministry decreed that universities in maximal alert areas must conduct in-person classes that do not exceed 50 percent of their nominal capacity. The only other measures taken by the ministry have been to recommend that universities enforce mask wearing, encourage regular handwashing and a 7-day-quarantine for positive individuals, even though this latter measure runs contrary to the WHO’s 14-day quarantine recommendation. Even if these limited measures were adhered to, they do not protect students or prevent universities acting as vectors for the spread through the wider population. In reality, the reopening of universities has formed an integral part of the ruling class’s herd immunity policy.
UK PM Johnson to impose further COVID-19 restrictions but pubs angry (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will on Monday impose a tiered system of further restrictions on parts of England as the COVID-19 outbreak accelerates, though anger is rising at the cost of the stringent curtailment of freedoms. Johnson has chaired an emergency response committee, known as a COBRA meeting, and will then address parliament at around 1430 GMT, offering lawmakers a vote later in the week on the measures. He will then hold a press conference. Johnson’s three-tiered local lockdowns will include shutting bars, gyms, casinos and bookmakers in some areas placed into the “very high” alert level, probably across the north of England, British media reported. “Pretty much all areas of the UK are now seeing growths in the infection rate,” England Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam told reporters. “The epidemic, this time, has clearly picked up pace in the north of England earlier than it did in the first wave.” Van-Tam said the freshest data showed infections were rising across the north of England and in some more southerly areas too while the virus was creeping up age bands towards the elderly from those aged 16-29 years. “Nightingale” emergency field hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate have been told to mobilise, NHS England’s Medical Director Steve Powis said. Manchester intensive care consultant Jane Eddleston said 30% of critical care beds were taken up with COVID-19 patients - starting to impact on healthcare for others. But as millions of people across the United Kingdom grapple with a patchwork of local restrictions, the hospitality sector says it is being brought to its knees by the government. A group of English pub and nightclub owners led by Manchester club night and events operator Sacha Lord will instruct lawyers to begin opposing the government if Johnson orders pubs closed. “If he is suggesting that pubs and bars need to shut down in Greater Manchester, we’re launching an immediate judicial review,” Lord, creator and operator of Manchester’s Parklife festival and The Warehouse Project, told Reuters. Lord has the support of The Night Time Industries Association, the British Beer and Pub Association, JW Lees Brewery, Joseph Holts Brewery, New River Pub Company, and a host of other operators in northwest England.
Boris Johnson overruled scientists who told him to introduce a lockdown three weeks ago, while ignoring warnings that his plans won't stop the coronavirus - Boris Johnson ignored advice to introduce a second national lockdown three weeks ago, according to newly published documents which illustrate an extraordinary spat between ministers and the scientists who advise them.The scientific advisory group for emergencies (SAGE) advised the prime minister to introduce a raft of measures to try and contain the rate of Covid-19 transmissions in a Zoom meeting three weeks ago.Boris Johnson reportedly sided with "hawks" in his Cabinet, including Chancellor Rishi Sunak, and refused to consider the measures because he feared the damage they would do to the economy. The measures suggested included a two-week "circuit breaker" lockdown similar to the one imposed in March, a national ban on household mixing, and the closure of all restaurants, pubs, cafes, gyms, and hairdressers. The papers also reveal that Johnson was warned that plans he did later enact to introduce a curfew on pubs and restaurants would only have a "marginal impact" on the spread of the virus.The prime minister instead on Monday announced a "three-tier" system of local lockdowns, where areas which faced the highest incidence rate of Covid-19 would face the harshest measures.He told parliament on Monday: "The number of cases has quadrupled in the last three weeks, there are now more people in hospital with Covid than when we went into lockdown on March 23 and deaths are already rising." Currently the city of Liverpool is in the highest category, "very high risk," due to a soaring infection rate and rapidly filling intensive care units which threaten to overwhelm local NHS trusts.
Bank of England asks banks how ready they are for sub-zero rates (Reuters) - The Bank of England asked banks on Monday how ready they are for zero or negative interest rates, following up its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if necessary. Other central banks have pushed rates into negative territory in an attempt to spur banks to lend more, and the BoE said in September it was looking into what such a policy might mean in Britain. “As part of this work, we are requesting specific information about your firm’s current readiness to deal with a zero Bank Rate, a negative Bank Rate, or a tiered system of reserves remuneration – and the steps that you would need to take to prepare for the implementation of these,” Deputy BoE Governor Sam Woods said in a letter to banks. The BoE and lenders had to understand the implications of any such moves “since the MPC may see fit to choose various options based on the situation at the time,” he said, referring to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. Woods said he wanted to know if there were any technology challenges to implementing zero or negative rates. “We are also seeking to understand whether there may be potential for short-term solutions or workarounds, as well as permanent systems changes,” he said. The BoE set a deadline of Nov. 12 - a week after its next monetary policy announcement - for banks to respond. Most euro zone banks have held off passing negative rates on to the bulk of their retail customers despite borrowing costs being below zero for the majority of this decade. However, UK banks would likely face a sharper hit to profitability if they opted not to shift rates in line with the Bank of England due to their differing business models.
Trade, saving and an economic disaster - Frances Coppola - (9 graphs) The UK is running a trade surplus. No, really, I am not joking. This is from the ONS's latest trade statistics release: The UK total trade surplus, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, increased £3.8 billion to £7.7 billion in the three months to August 2020, as exports grew by £21.4 billion and imports grew by a lesser £17.5 billionIt's the first time the UK has run a trade surplus since the late 1990s: And if you were thinking this was because of the lockdown, you would be wrong. The UK has been running a trade surplus since the beginning of 2020: Admittedly, the trade surplus widened under lockdown. But the UK economy reopened to some degree from June to August - and yet the trade surplus continues to widen. This is no doubt music to the ears of balance of payments obsessives. Could the UK at last be pivoting away from a consumption-led growth model to an export-led one? At first sight, it appears so. Exports have increased more than imports. And the strongest growth in goods exports was in manufactured goods, particularly machinery and transport equipment: Hooray! If this continues, the UK will become an export powerhouse to rival Germany! There will be jobs and prosperity for all! Not so fast. The trade balance is a net figure. The gross figures that make it up matter too - and gross imports and exports have both fallen considerably since August 2019: The UK's trade surplus is not a sign of a booming export economy. Far from it. The only reason for the trade surplus is that imports have fallen even more than exports over the last 12 months.
Johnson calls off Brexit negotiations following EU summit deadlock -UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated his threat to end negotiations on Brexit following talks at the European Union (EU) summit on Thursday, amid a torrent of bellicose rhetoric. Speaking in a televised statement Friday, Johnson accused the EU of “refus[ing] to negotiate seriously” and said the UK should prepare the UK for an “Australia-style deal”—a hard Brexit with trading done on World Trade Organisation terms. Brussels, he said, “want the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is completely unacceptable to an independent country.” The UK would “embrace the alternative” and “prosper mightily as an independent free-trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws.” Shortly afterwards the prime minister’s spokesperson claimed, “The trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position.” This was in reference to the communique issued by the summit on Brexit which stated only that the UK needed to “make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible” and dropped an earlier drafted call for an “intensification” of talks. Later in the evening, the UK Brexit negotiator David Frost told his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier not to come to London as planned on Monday—but added that he would agree to talks at some point early next week instead. Johnson is engaged in a bout of cynical brinkmanship. EU sources told the Guardian that Downing Street had seen the redraft before it was released and made clear their belief that the prime minister was engaging in political theatre. The Financial Times reports, “Tory MPs have long speculated that the prime minister would engineer some kind of political ‘crisis’ as a prelude to making concessions to secure a deal.” Johnson’s bellicosity is in inverse proportion to the weakness of his position—and both he and the EU leaders know it. On Tuesday Barnier mocked Johnson’s efforts to impose a “third unilateral deadline” for a Brexit deal on the upcoming summit. Johnson’s statement yesterday included the offer to “discuss the practicalities with our friends where a lot of progress has already been made…” and talks between the two sides have not in fact been discontinued. Several newspapers have referred to UK and EU sources suggesting an agreement is in sight. There are multiple political calculations at work. Brexit is a nodal point of interlocking domestic crises confronted by the UK, the EU states, and the United States, and of rising geopolitical tensions between them all. Johnson’s nationalist declarations represent the preferred policy of his party and several key pro-Brexit Conservative backers, but his refusal to cut off talks has been mandated by the City of London and the majority of British business. Hundreds of billions of pounds are at stake in a no-deal or hard Brexit, after which the imposition of tariffs and customs checks, and dislocation of supply chains would stagger the UK economy. The government’s own figures suggest a 7.6 percent decline in GDP over 15 years in the event of no-deal and a 4.9 percent decline for a free trade agreement hard Brexit.
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