week ending Nov 14

The Fed Says It’s Considering a Central Clearing Facility for the Treasury Market -  Pam Martens - The Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, Randal Quarles, dropped a bombshell during the House Financial Services Committee hearing held yesterday, but because mainstream media ignores these hearings unless they have something to do with Donald Trump, this critical news went unreported.Congressman Bill Foster of Illinois addressed Quarles with this statement:  “The Treasury market is the most liquid fixed income market in the world. It serves as a critical benchmark for other bond markets that are essential. It allows the U.S. Dollar to operate as the world’s dominant reserve currency. That is why it is crucial that these financial pipes continue to function well, especially as we continue to fight COVID-19 and we work to provide fiscal relief to millions of struggling families and small businesses.  “When the Fed has to step in to support the market for Treasury bonds, I view it as the financial equivalent of our military going to DEFCON 2….”Foster was referring to the dysfunction in the Treasury market in March as the pandemic escalated in the U.S. and millions of investors around the world moved out of both stocks and Treasuries and into cash. The subsequent exchange between Foster and Quarles went as follows:

• Foster: “Could you explain to us your view of why requiring central clearing of treasuries might be beneficial to market functioning and what are the drawbacks and tradeoffs, if any, of this approach.
• Quarles: “So, as we look at the lessons from the Treasury market in March, we have been looking closely at this issue of central clearing of Treasuries. The advantage would be that central clearing would reduce pressure on dealer balance sheets. The current system requires dealers take those Treasuries onto their balance sheets when there isn’t another side to the trade. That’s obviously a significant strain.“The cons are really the cons of any CCP [Central Clearing Party] (inaudible). It’s a complex risk management problem. And so we want to think that through carefully for a market that is as large and as central, as you correctly identified the market as being.“The pros are attractive. We’re looking through this carefully with an inter-agency group. I would say, just as an additional thought though, that that could lead to improved market functioning generally. What we saw in March, though, was simply that everyone was selling and no one was buying. There was a period of a few days when there just wasn’t another side to the transaction. And so a smoother mechanism for matching buyers and sellers probably would not have addressed the March issue because the question was that there just wasn’t a buyer. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a useful wakeup call for thinking about the structure of the Treasury market.”

One critical aspect regarding securing the integrity of the U.S. Treasury market involves the failure of William Barr’s U.S. Department of Justice to properly charge JPMorgan Chase for what the Justice Department described on September 29 as “thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds…” JPMorgan’s illegal manipulation of the Treasury market, which is essential, as Congressman Foster said, to the confidence in the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency, went on for more than eight years. And yet, the Department of Justice attempted to downplay the severity of JPMorgan’s actions by combining those charges with charges of the bank’s rigging in the precious metals markets. And, in an unprecedented move, the Justice Department announced two felony counts against JPMorgan Chase in a press release instead of holding a press conference so that reporters could ask questions.

In first for Fed, U.S. central bank says climate poses stability risks  (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve for the first time called out climate change among risks enumerated in its biannual financial stability report, and warned about the potential for abrupt changes in asset values in response to a warming planet. “Acute hazards, such as storms, floods, or wildfires, may cause investors to update their perceptions of the value of real or financial assets suddenly,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in comments attached to the report, released Monday. “Chronic hazards, such as slow increases in mean temperatures or sea levels, or a gradual change in investor sentiment about those risks, introduce the possibility of abrupt tipping points or significant swings in sentiment,” Brainard said. Such abrupt price changes from climate-related disasters could also create difficult-to-predict knock-on effects through financial markets, the report said, particularly because not enough is understood, or disclosed, about the true extent of exposures to climate risks. “Increased transparency through improved measurement and more standardized disclosures will be crucial,” Brainard said. “It is vitally important to move from the recognition that climate change poses significant financial stability risks to the stage where the quantitative implications of those risks are appropriately assessed and addressed.” Monday’s report comes just days after Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election against President Donald Trump, who has downplayed the risks of climate change. Biden has promised to put fighting climate change back on the U.S. policy agenda.

Judy Shelton Moves Closer to Senate Approval for Federal Reserve Board – WSJ - A controversial nominee of President Trump for the Federal Reserve’s policy-making board moved closer to confirmation Thursday after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) set in motion the procedures needed to secure a final vote. The candidacy of Judy Shelton, an economic commentator, for the Fed’s board of governors had been approved by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in July on a party-line vote despite objections from Democrats. With Thursday’s procedural motion, Ms. Shelton could receive a full Senate vote as soon as next week. Mr. McConnell’s decision suggests a high likelihood that she has the votes needed for confirmation, according to political analysts. Her path had appeared to be in jeopardy this summer after two Republicans said they would oppose her candidacy, citing concerns about her unorthodox policy positions and an inconsistency in those views. Senate GOP leadership had warned that her confirmation might lack support needed in the chamber, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority. That majority could shrink later this month if Democrat Mark Kelly of Arizona, who won a special election last week for the Senate seat held by Republican Martha McSally, is seated after lawmakers return from a Thanksgiving holiday period. Ms. Shelton would fill a vacancy on the Fed board that runs through January 2024. Mr. Trump also nominated Christopher Waller, the research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, for a second vacancy, and the economist has attracted backing from Republicans and Democrats. The banking committee also advanced Mr. Waller’s nomination, but Mr. McConnell hasn’t started the process that would bring him up for a full Senate vote. If both seats are filled this year, President-elect Joe Biden wouldn’t have any vacancies to fill on the seven-member board when he takes office in January, a situation that could last until early 2022, unless a sitting governor resigns. The Fed hasn’t had a full complement of seven governors since 2013.

Fed’s Bullard Says Economy Has Recovered Faster Than Expected – WSJ - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis leader James Bullard said Friday U.S. central-bank policy is in a good place as the economy continues to snap back amid challenges from the coronavirus pandemic. “We’ve got rates at very low levels and expected to stay at very low levels; we’ve got a pace of purchases that’s pretty substantial,” Mr. Bullard told reporters after a video appearance. “We don’t know what’s around the corner as far as the crisis goes, so all those things make me think that we’re in a good position for now” with monetary policy, he said. Mr. Bullard, who is not a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said the Fed is not even contemplating lifting its short-term rate target right now off near-zero levels. Mr. Bullard also played down the need for more government aid to the economy, noting that the first round of fiscal stimulus was so large that it has been able to carry the economy even now. In his prepared remarks, Mr. Bullard said the economy has recovered from the coronavirus pandemic much quicker than expected, and he sees more room for the unemployment rate to fall. But the official also said “downside risk remains substantial, and continued execution of a granular, risk-based health policy will be critical to maintain economic momentum.” Mr. Bullard didn’t make forward-looking policy comments in his prepared materials, but he did say that central bank and broader government-aid efforts have been “exceptionally effective” in helping the economy weather the pandemic’s shock. Mr. Bullard said the economy continues to adapt to the coronavirus and said unemployment, now at 6.9%, could fall to between 4.9% and 5.5% by year-end, depending on how workers are called back.

Fed Chair Powell Says Rising Virus Cases Could Challenge Economic Recovery – WSJ - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it is too soon to say how progress in the global hunt for a coronavirus vaccine will influence the U.S. economy, particularly given concerning increases in infections that could weaken the recent economic recovery. “The next few months could be challenging,” Mr. Powell said Thursday during a virtual panel discussion with other central bankers. On the implications of a vaccine, he added, “From our standpoint, it’s just too soon to assess with any confidence the implications of the news for the path of the economy, especially in the near term.” Mr. Powell spoke Thursday alongside two of his foreign counterparts, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey. Fed officials left their policy stance unchanged last week at a meeting that took place before it was clear that President-elect Joe Biden had defeated President Trump and before the latest positive developments on the vaccine front. U.S. stock markets flirted with record levels earlier this week after Pfizer announced a vaccine it is developing with BioNTech proved better than expected at protecting people from Covid-19, bringing closer a potential milestone in the global hunt to end the pandemic. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 0.957% on Monday after the Pfizer announcement from 0.821% at the end of last week. Yields stood at 0.918% shortly before Mr. Powell spoke late Thursday morning. Mr. Powell described the U.S. recovery as faster and stronger than officials had expected, even though it had slowed in recent months. He also said the rebound has been uneven and incomplete. “We do see the economy continuing on a solid path of recovery, but the main risk we see to that is the further spread of disease here in the United States,” he said.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.     The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).  This data is as of Nov 8th.  The seven day average is down 65% from last year (35% of last year).   The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.  This data is updated through November 7, 2020.   This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.   Note that dining is generally turning down more in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - but only turning down slightly in the southern states.  This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 5th.  Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $150 million per week in the early Fall).  This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 31st. Hotel occupancy is currently down 29.0% year-over-year. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 30th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.8% YoY (about 91.2% of last year).  This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 52% of the January level. It is at 41% in Chicago, and 55% in Houston - and declining recently.  Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.   This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, November 6th.  Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

The Economic Outlook – WSJ November Survey - No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”. Figure 1: GDP as reported in 2020Q2 3rd release (black), WSJ April survey (tan), May survey (green), June survey (red), July survey (pink), August survey (blue), September (brown), October (chartreuse), November (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA, various vintages, WSJ survey, various vintages, author’s calculations.Note that while the implied projected level of GDP is higher in the November survey, this is not because growth prospects have brightened going forward. Rather, it’s because Q3 growth outperformed the 28.5% growth (SAAR) in the mean October survey (results discussed in this post).Figure 2 shows the mean GDP forecast, and the fastest forecasted growth (James Smith).( I want whatever pharmaceutical that guy takes!) and the slowest (Robert Dietz of the NAHB) over the next four quarters (2020Q3-2021Q2).Figure 2: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 advance release (black), James Smith/Economic Forecaster LLC (red), Robert Dietz/National Assn of Home Builders (green), Amy Crew Cutts/A.C. Cutts & assoc.  (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q2 3rd release, October WSJ survey, and author’s calculations.Smith predicts a “V” recovery. Only one forecasts a “W” recovery (Amy Crew Cutts).The survey was taken between November 6-10, so after election day, and presumably after it became somewhat clear who would win the presidency and who would control the senate.Personally, I think that with the fast-deteriorating Covid-19 situation (cases, hospitalizations, deaths all rising), Trump administration complete abdication of a public health response, and administration obstruction of a transition to the new administration, I think most of these forecasters are underestimating the likelihood of zero growth in 2020Q4 and into 2021Q1.In today’s newsletter, Goldman Sachs represents mainstream consensus view that a relatively small fiscal stimulus ($1 trn) is likely, but not arriving until the new congress is seated. With many programs ending at years-end, the heightened uncertainty (not to mention decrease in disposable income) is sure to constrain consumer spending. Torsten Slok (Apollo) notes:The ongoing rise in the number of covid cases is likely to have a negative impact on mobility, shopping, and restaurant bookings, even in a situation where the US economy does not enter a second lockdown similar to what we are seeing in Europe. …The bottom line is that the near-term outlook for the global economy is negative because of the ongoing spike in the number of cases, but with the vaccine news we are likely to see growth accelerating going into 2021. In short, it looks like this will end up being a W-shaped recovery. Countering the depressing effects of the pandemic is (for now) optimism regarding the development of an effective vaccine, although widespread distribution is not expected until something near mid-2021. That optimism should help sustain consumer spending by households and business fixed investment by firms, that are not liquidity constrained.

GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments -A key policy issue for 2021 will be how much disaster relief the Federal government will provide to state and local governments. If we look back at the Great Recession, most of the damage was done to the States after the recession. This is because state and local governments are required to run a balanced budget (or something close), and the state governments started cutting after the recession. Here is a graph showing the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.The red bars are the contribution to the percent change in real GDP from state and local governments. Although state and local governments were a drag on GDP in Q2 and Q3 in 2020, the worst may happen in 2021 as state and local governments work to balance their budgets.This next graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2005.   Note that graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change in employment. Following the Great Recession, most of the state and local government layoffs were after the recession. This was a drag on overall employment for a few years. In 2020, there was a sharp decline in state and local government employment due to the pandemic (mostly in education employment). Without Federal disaster relief, I expect state and local governments will have further layoffs in 2021.

Monthly U.S. Budget Gap More Than Doubled in October – WSJ —The federal government ran a $284 billion budget deficit in the first month of the fiscal year, more than double the monthly shortfall a year ago, the Treasury Department said Thursday. The U.S. budget gap rose 111% in October, due to higher federal spending last month on health-care and safety-net programs, and lower federal tax collection, according to monthly Treasury data. Government outlays rose 37% to $522 billion, while revenue declined 3.2% to $238 billion. Over the 12 months ending in October, the U.S. continued to run a deficit about three times as large as it was over the previous year as it continues to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The 12-month budget gap totaled $3.3 trillion last month, about 15.5% of gross domestic product. Federal deficits have climbed this year as Congress enacted emergency measures, including stimulus payments and loans to small businesses, to cushion the U.S. economy from the effects of the pandemic. Automatic spending on health care, food assistance and jobless benefits have also pushed up outlays, while tax revenues have declined amid widespread layoffs and weaker consumer demand. Spending by the Department of Health and Human Services rose 50% last month, including a 76% increase in Medicare spending and 20% higher spending on Medicaid. Spending on Social Security also rose 9%, military spending increased 12% and Veterans Affairs department spending climbed 70%. Treasury outlays declined 7%, due in part to lower costs on the federal debt, which totaled $21 trillion at the end of the month. On the revenue side, individual withholding declined 7% last month, corporate income taxes increased roughly 28% and customs duties from tariffs on imported goods declined 16%. The widening budget gap is at the center of debates in Washington over how much more government support lawmakers should provide the economy. Democrats have called for another broad economic aid package, arguing higher deficits are worth it to help bolster the economic recovery. Republicans have pointed to rising red ink as a reason to keep deficits in check and called for a smaller, more targeted relief bill.

US Starts Off Fiscal 2021 With Largest October Budget Deficit On Record - One month after the Treasury announced that the US ended fiscal 2020 with a staggering, record $3.1 trillion budget deficit, more than triple the prior year's $954 billion, as a result outlays of $6.552 trillion, almost double the receipts of $3.420 trillion, moments ago we learned that the US started off fiscal 2021 in style, and in the month of October the budget deficit was a whopping $284 billion, $10 billion more than the expected $274.5 billion, and more than double last year's October deficit of $134.5 billion. This was also the biggest October deficit in history.Specifically according to the Treasury, in August, government outlays were $521.8 billion, up $24 billion from the $497.8 billion spent in September, and a whopping 37% more than the $380 billion the US spent last October... ... while receipts shrank from the $373.2 billion received in September to $237.7 billion, and down 3.2% from the $245.5 billion received last October (the question of why anyone still pays taxes in a time of helicopter money, when the Fed simply purchases whatever debt the Treasury issues, remains). The chart below shows the October and YTD 2020 breakdown between various receipts and outlays. It reveals that the bulk of the total $238BN in receipts came from Individual Income Taxes ($109BN) and from Social Security and Retirement payments ($96BN), while the biggest spending categories were Medicare ($96BN), Social Security ($93BN), National Defense ($80BN), Income Security ($73BN) and Health ($63BN). Net interest on public debt was "only" $32 billion, but this number can only grow. Finally putting the October number in context, the October deficit of $284.1 billion was not only more than double the deficit recorded in any year in the past decade, but was the highest October deficit on record, in what is an ominous confirmation that the US debt, already over $27.1 trillion will rise above $30 trillion within the next 12 or so months.

Many Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the End of 2020 -In addition to regular weekly unemployment claims, there are two COVID related programs that end on December 26th.The first is the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) Program. This is a special program that provides up to 39 weeks of benefits for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. PUA is not payable for any week of unemployment ending after December 31, 2020. Accordingly, in states where the week of unemployment ends on a Saturday, the last week that PUA may be paid is the week ending December 26, 2020. For states where the week of unemployment ends on a Sunday, the last week that PUA is payable is the week ending December 27, 2020. As of October 24th - the most recent report - there were 9,433,127 receiving PUA benefits (there are questions about these numbers).The second is the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) Program. This program "provides up to 13 additional weeks of benefits to individuals who have exhausted their regular unemployment compensation (UC) entitlement". Just like the PUA, this program ends on December 26th. There are currently 4,143,389 people receiving these extended benefits, and this has been increasing sharply. On October 1st, about 1.8 million people were receiving benefits from the PEUC, so this has most than doubled over the last month as people exhaust their regular benefits.   This number will probably continued to increase over the next month. Note that if people get laid off again, as COVID surges, many more people could exhaust their regular benefits.So there is a significant fiscal cliff looming at the end of December.Meanwhile, it is looking less likely that another disaster relief package will be passed before the end of the year.  Goldman Sachs noted today: We continue to expect Congress to approve additional fiscal support in the range of $1 trillion, but political and vaccine-related developments make this more likely to come in early 2021 than in the lame-duck session of Congress A surging pandemic and no disaster relief will make for a very hard winter. Hopefully some sort of relief will be passed in the lame-duck session.

Senate panel proposes $696B Pentagon spending bill - The GOP-led Senate Appropriations Committee is proposing a $696 billion Pentagon spending bill for this fiscal year. The Senate's version of the fiscal 2021 Pentagon spending bill was released Tuesday alongside all 11 other annual appropriations bills as lawmakers gear up to negotiate an end-of-year spending package to fund the government. The government has been operating under a stopgap spending measure known as a continuing resolution since the start of the fiscal year in October. That measure expires Dec. 11. Both Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have said they want to pass an omnibus spending bill, rather than another short-term resolution, but the two chambers still have to work out key differences on controversial issues. The House passed its $694.6 billion version of the Pentagon spending bill in July as part of a package of spending bills. The Senate version released Tuesday includes $627.2 billion for the base defense budget and $68.7 billion for a war fund known as the Overseas Contingency Operations account. The bill aligns with the House’s on a 3 percent pay raise for troops. The Senate’s version also eschews key controversial policy issues that the Democratic-led House tackled. The House’s included funding for the Army to change the names of bases named after Confederate leaders, as well as several provisions aimed at blocking Pentagon funding from being used on President Trump’s border wall. The lower chamber approved of funding for the Army to remove Confederate names from bases after the police killing of George Floyd, a Black man who was killed by Minneapolis police in May. His death sparked nationwide protests over racial injustice and police brutality, prompting the removal of Confederate monuments all over the country. The Senate’s bill would also fund 96 F-35 fighter jets, 17 more than the administration requested and five more than the House bill would buy. The bill also includes $21.35 billion to build nine new battle force ships, $1.4 billion more than the Trump administration requested. The shipbuilding money would buy one Columbia-class submarine, one Virginia-class submarine, two Arleigh Burke destroyers, one Constellation-class frigate, one amphibious transport dock, one Expeditionary Fast Transport ships and two tug boats.

Beware of the Hawk: What to Expect from the Biden Administration on Foreign Policy -- Millions of people around the world breathed a sigh of relief with the defeat of Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. election and victory of the Biden-Harris ticket.Joe Biden’s victory speech exuded a feeling of optimism in its call for a new era of bipartisanship and decency in politics.   However, it is unlikely that decency will prevail in the realm of foreign policy.According to a profile in The Atlantic Magazine, Biden prides himself on his close interpersonal relations with world leaders, which enables the advancement of mutual foreign policy goals.However, if the leader is unsavory, then these interpersonal relations become problematic.  As Vice-President under Barack Obama, Biden cultivated a close relationship with Iraqi leader Nouri al-Maliki who was known as the “Shia Saddam” for his sectarian policies that led to the growth of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS).Biden was also very close with Ukrainian President Petro Porosehnko, who was installed in a U.S. backed coup in 2014 and initiated a civil war in Eastern Ukraine that left over 13,000 people dead.[1]In some circles, Biden is lauded for being a cautionary voice in the Obama administration on issues of war and peace.In fact, he championed drone strikes and Special Forces operations as an alternative to the heavy deployment of ground troops, which is the CIAs preferred strategy.Following the U.S. NATO bombing of Libya, Biden bragged that “we didn’t lose a single life” and that the war “served as a prescription for how to deal with the world as we go forward.”[2]  This statement is deeply disturbing in light of the fact that hundreds of Libyans were killed in U.S. air strikes and the country was left in ruins after its leader, Muammar Qaddafi was overthrown and lynched.

Who Is Michèle Flournoy, Biden’s Rumored Pick for Pentagon Chief? - Will Biden’s “defense policy” (quotes because America’s defense policy is really a war policy) turn more hawkish than Obama’s, thus reflecting the Hillary wing of that cabinet? Or will Biden continue the “no stupid wars” admonition that kept Obama from initiating bloodbaths in Syria and Iran?  Time will tell, of course, but one of the chief indicators will be his pick for Secretary of Defense, the person who will reflect, influence and implement his foreign policy. On that pick, there’s almost near consensus — Michèle Flournoy. (See here, here, here and here.) So who is Michèle Flournoy? Medea Benjamin and Nicolas Davies, admittedly no fans of America’s forever war, have written a nice run-down of her history and policy positions, and it’s not a pretty one — unless you’re a fan of America’s forever war, in which case you’ll be find it wonderful to behold. Some samples from their article:

• • As assistant secretary of defense for strategy under President Bill Clinton, Flournoy was the principal author of the May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), which laid the ideological foundation for the endless wars that followed. Under “Defense Strategy,” the QDR effectively announced that the United States would no longer be bound by the UN charter’s prohibition against the threat or use of military force. It declared that, “when the interests at stake are vital, …we should do whatever it takes to defend them, including, when necessary, the unilateral use of military power.” The QDR defined U.S. vital interests to include “preventing the emergence of a hostile regional coalition” anywhere on Earth and “ensuring uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies and strategic resources.”
• • In June 2002, as Bush and his gang threatened aggression against Iraq, Flournoy told The Washington Post that the United States would “need to strike preemptively before a crisis erupts to destroy an adversary’s weapons stockpile” before it “could erect defenses to protect those weapons, or simply disperse them.” When Bush unveiled his official “doctrine of preemption” a few months later, Senator Edward Kennedy wisely condemned it as “unilateralism run amok” and “a call for 21st century American imperialism that no other country can or should accept.
• • Flournoy’s career has been marked by the unethical spinning of revolving doors between the Pentagon, consulting firms helping businesses procure Pentagon contracts, and military-industrial think tanks like the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), which she co-founded in 2007.
• • In 2009, she joined the Obama administration as under secretary of defense for policy, where she helped engineer political and humanitarian disasters in Libya and Syria and a new escalation of the endless war in Afghanistan before resigning in 2012.
• • As Obama’s under secretary of defense for policy, she was a hawkish voice for escalation in Afghanistan and war on Libya. She resigned in February 2012, leaving others to clean up the mess. In February 2013, when Obama brought in Chuck Hagel as a relatively dovish reformer to replace Leon Panetta as defense secretary, right-wing figures opposed to his planned reforms, including Paul Wolfowitz and William Kristol, backed Flournoy as a hawkish alternative.
• • In 2016, Flournoy was tapped as Hillary Clinton’s choice for secretary of defense, and she co-authored a CNAS report titled “Expanding American Power” with a team of hawks that included former Dick Cheney aide Eric Edelman, PNAC co-founder Robert Kagan and Bush’s National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley.The report was seen as a view of how Clinton’s foreign policy would differ from Obama’s, with calls for higher military spending, arms shipments to Ukraine, renewed military threats against Iran, more aggressive military action in Syria and Iraq, and further increases to domestic oil and gas production — all of which Trump has adopted.

There’s more in the article, but this should be enough. Michèle Flournoy, as Secretary of Defense, will be the hawk from hell and put a gleam in every war contractor’s eye. I keep warning that all this killing will come back to us — will blast our malls and movie palaces, our sports arenas and apartment complexes — but warnings like these go well unlistened-to, drowned by the voices of hubris and spread of empire that infuse what passes for minds in the DC world.I suspect (with no evidence yet) that on the domestic and economic front, the Biden administration will be a centrist-flavored disaster. But if Michèle Flournoy — or anyone like her — is picked for Secretary of Defense, his foreign policy will be even worse, a banquet of blood and a grave risk to us all.

Biden 'Is' The Swamp by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, Since the US has no official institution to call an election soon after the polls have closed, and people want a result fast, it has befallen on the media to make the announcement. And by and large, this hasn’t been that big a deal. But when those same media have for 4 years relentlessly hounded one of the two candidates, it should be obvious that this “system” should not be applied. If only because it has no legal status whatsoever. However, people both in the US and abroad don’t appear to be aware of this. So when the New York Times et al declare a winner, this is seen as an “official” announcement. It is not. That won’t come until the Electoral College gathers in December (8-14th?!). And at least until then, Trump will have every right to contest the election in court. Still, “world leaders” are congratulating the “next president”. Do they really not know how this works? The idea behind it all is obvious, of course: to make Trump look like a sore loser, and Biden the president-elect, a title the media claim they can bestow upon him.  I don’t particularly mind Biden winning, Washington is a shit hole whoever occupies the White House and other posts, but this is not about Biden. It’s about the people behind him. About the people who elected him to be a candidate, and that’s not his voters; it’s the DNC, the FBI and media that made him possible. Everyone in the MSM is talking about Trump’s alleged lies, as they have for 5 screeching years, main news networks on Thursday even cut off/short a speech by the President of the United States -that must be a first-, but nobody reflects on the 5-year neverending constant lies they have all told ABOUT Trump, on the entire Russiagate episode, the Mueller report based on only lies, the whole shebang. And still these are the people accusing Trump of lying. And they feel they can get away with it, because their media also incessantly repeated their lies, and is still doing that. Forget for a moment about what you think about Donald Trump, and tell me how you feel about an attempt to unseat an elected American president with nothing but lies. Do you think that will be a one-off? If so, you’re blind. If Joe Biden and his handlers ever get into the White House, respect for the Office of the Presidency will still be gone, and it will be for a long time, decades. That’s the price the American people pay for the attempt to unseat Trump based on lies only. Do you really feel that’s a price worth paying? I suggest you give that some serious thought. With Biden you don’t just get Biden, you get the entire cabal that went after Trump: the Democratic Party, the media, the intelligence agencies. And yes, Biden was and is very much part of that cabal.  How people do not find that a whole lot scarier than Donald Trump is beyond me.

Big Wall Street Donors to Biden Will Maneuver for Key Posts- Pam Martens - After successfully warding off barbarians outside the gates of the local election offices during the count of mail-in ballots, President-elect Joe Biden now has a new army of barbarians to deal with. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, using data collected by the Federal Election Commission, the industry category called “Finance, Insurance & Real Estate” donated a stunning $201,675,240 to Biden’s campaign and PACs supporting him. Add to that the category of “Lawyers and Lobbyists,” which donated $52,378,087, and you’re looking at a cool quarter of a billion dollars.The bulk of the $52 million that came from “Lawyers and Lobbyists” was donated by the lawyers and partners of the big law firms that represent the biggest Wall Street banks and securities firms. Big donors to Biden and the Democratic Party in the 2019/2020 cycle hail from such law firms as Kirkland & Ellis; Paul Weiss; Akin Gump; Sullivan & Cromwell; Covington & Burling; and Sidley Austin, to name just a few.The current head of the U.S. Department of Justice, William Barr, hails from Kirkland & Ellis, as does Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen. The former head of the criminal division of the Justice Department, Brian Benczkowski, who stepped down in July, also came from Kirkland & Ellis.Covington & Burling similarly staffed up President Barack Obama’s Justice Department with Eric Holder as Attorney General and Lanny Breuer as head of the criminal division. Covington & Burling is also the law firm that fronted for Big Tobacco’s crimes against the American people for four decades. (See our 2012 article, Was the U.S. Justice Department Sold to the Highest Bidder.)The current Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, was a former law partner at Sullivan & Cromwell. Clayton represented 8 of the 10 largest Wall Street banks in the three years prior to landing the top post at the SEC in the Trump administration.

Harris's husband leaving law firm for role in Biden administration - Douglas Emhoff, the husband of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, is leaving his law firm, DLA Piper, for a role in the Biden administration. Emhoff will officially leave DLA Piper by Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, a Biden campaign spokesperson confirmed. Emhoff took a leave of absence from his firm in August as Harris ran on the Democratic ticket. "Mr. Emhoff is working with the Biden-Harris transition team to develop the portfolio he will focus on to support the work of the administration," the spokesperson said. He will be the first man to be a spouse of a vice president after Harris made history as the first woman elected vice president. Emhoff is a partner in the firm’s Los Angeles office, and his firm profile says, “Mr. Emhoff is currently on a leave of absence from the firm.” The same note was on his profile in August when he first announced his leave. He joined DLA Piper in October 2017 and his specialties include media, sports and entertainment, as well as intellectual property and technology, litigation, arbitration and investigations. He is licensed to practice in California and Washington, D.C. DLA Piper has a lobbying arm, but Emhoff is not a lobbyist. “He represents large domestic and international corporations and some of today's highest profile individuals and influencers in complex business, real estate and intellectual property litigation disputes,” his firm profile reads.

Biden’s tough choice on who will lead Treasury — President-elect Joe Biden will inherit a very uncertain economy on Jan. 20. It remains to be seen whether Congress can agree on a stimulus package during the lame duck period, and how an almost certain second wave of COVID-19 cases will affect jobs, business closures, consumer spending and financial stability. Biden’s Treasury secretary, which he is expected to name in the coming weeks, will be tasked with presiding over a U.S. economy that has not only been ravaged by the pandemic, but is facing new reckonings over racial inequality and climate change. The Treasury chief is also the incoming cabinet’s primary financial policymaker, with influence over bank regulatory changes, reforming the housing finance system, and what legislation affecting banks gets the administration’s support. But with the control of the Senate still up in the air until two Senate races in Georgia are decided by January runoffs, Biden will likely be forced to select a Treasury secretary that could be approved by a Republican-controlled chamber. Plus, if Republicans retain control of the Senate, Biden may have to select someone able to negotiate a sweeping economic stimulus package with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. That could mean compromising some components that Democrats had hoped would pass easily if the election produced a Democratic majority in the Senate. The Senate factor almost certainly means that some of the more progressive names that had been floated before the election for Treasury secretary, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., or former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, are nonstarters. But it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that Biden would choose a more left-of-center candidate to appease the progressive side of his party. Still, Biden’s Treasury secretary will have far-reaching influence over banking policy, from heading the Financial Stability Oversight Council to working with the Fed to finance emergency lending facilities. The president-elect’s transition team provided a glimpse of how the selection process could take shape when it released a list of volunteers and paid employees advising the incoming administration on key appointees. Leading the Treasury Department review team is Don Graves, an executive at KeyBank. Here are some of the candidates to lead the Treasury Department under Biden:

GOP senators say Warren nomination would divide Republicans - Senate Republicans are warning that President-elect Joe Biden would spark “a fight” if he were to nominate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or former national security adviser Susan Rice to his Cabinet. Republicans will control at least 50 seats in the next Senate. The GOP is hoping to add to its majority by winning two runoff races scheduled for Jan. 5 in Georgia, a state that traditionally votes Republican but where Biden has a 14,000-vote lead in the presidential election. If Democrats can win both seats, they’d have the Senate majority with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking ties. But if Democrats lose just one of those races, they’ll need GOP support to confirm Biden’s nominees. Republicans are already seeking leverage by saying Biden would be better off picking centrists such as Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) or Doug Jones (D-Ala.) for his Cabinet rather than the progressive stars Warren and Sanders. GOP lawmakers declined to speak publicly about their expected opposition to Warren and Sanders, who are both their colleagues. But privately they’re warning that tapping a senator with outspoken liberal views to head the Treasury Department or Labor Department would spark a fight. “I had a colleague of mine say there’s no way Elizabeth Warren or Susan Rice could ever get confirmed,” said one GOP senator. The lawmaker said “it would be a fight” if Biden tapped Warren, Sanders or Rice. Some GOP senators think Warren could get through because of her credentials. Even critics acknowledge the former Harvard professor is an expert on financial regulation and an accomplished policymaker. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), one of the chamber’s most conservative members, was a student of Warren’s at Harvard. If Biden nominated Warren as Treasury secretary and the Senate held a vote, some senators think she would easily win 50-plus votes. “I would not be one of the ones to stop the nomination,” said one of the GOP senators. “They could get all the Democrats and 10 Republicans.” But there are real questions over whether a nomination of Warren, Sanders or Rice would get to a vote in a GOP-majority Senate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has made it a policy not to bring bills to the floor that divide his conference and has yet to explain to fellow GOP senators what his policy would be for controversial Biden nominees. “There may be some individuals who have to be opposed,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), depending on “what ideologically” the nominee is “pushing.” In general, Johnson said “I give a great deal of latitude to the president” on nominations. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said “if it’s someone who represents some of the more radical views that we see gaining a lot of traction in the Democratic Party, I think they would have a lot of problems getting through.”

Biden considering Yellen as possible Treasury secretary: report - President-elect Joe Biden is considering former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be his Treasury secretary, Bloomberg News reports.  According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter say Yellen is among Biden's contenders for the position and noted that she has canceled at least one upcoming speaking engagement as she is considered.   The other Treasury names on Biden's list reportedly include Fed Governor Lael Brainard and former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson.   Biden has announced that Ron Klain would be his chief of staff, but otherwise has not yet made any major cabinet or personnel decisions yet.  Former President Obama appointed Yellen to be his Federal Reserve chair, which she held for one term. President Trump then appointed Jerome Powell to the position, and has frequently clashed with him over his decisions at the central bank.  During the campaign, Yellen briefed the Biden team on economic issues after the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. She has advised lawmakers to pass another stimulus relief package, warning that the U.S. could face deep and permanent damage to the economy without one.  Biden's Treasury secretary would likely be involved in responding to the pandemic as well as crafting Biden's tax plan. The former vice president is calling for higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations, while also putting forth plans to provide and expand tax credits for lower- and middle-income families

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ends truce by warning ‘incompetent’ Democratic party -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has criticised the Democratic party for incompetence in a no-holds-barred, post-election interview with the New York Times, warning that if the Biden administration does not put progressives in top positions, the party would lose big in the 2022 midterm elections.  Signaling that the internal moratorium in place while the Democratsworked to defeat Donald Trump was over, the leftwing New York representative sharply rejected the notion advanced by some Democrats that progressive messaging around the Movement for Black Lives and the Green New Deal led to the party’s loss of congressional seats in last week’s election.  The real problem, said Ocasio-Cortez, was that the party lacked “core competencies” to run campaigns.“There’s a reason Barack Obama built an entire national campaign apparatus outside of the Democratic National Committee,” she told the Times’ Astead Herndon. “And there’s a reason that when he didn’t activate or continue that, we lost House majorities. Because the party – in and of itself – does not have the core competencies, and no amount of money is going to fix that.”   The failure of the party to operate an online strategy “in a real way that exhibits competence”, Ocasio-Cortez told the Times, made it hypocritical for the party to advance criticism of progressive messaging.  “If I lost my election, and I went out and I said: ‘This is moderates’ fault. This is because you didn’t let us have a floor vote on Medicare for all.’ And they opened the hood on my campaign, and they found that I only spent $5,000 on TV ads the week before the election?” Ocasio-Cortez said. “They would laugh. And that’s what they look like right now trying to blame the Movement for Black Lives for their loss.”  Grassroots activism that produced large turnout in Detroit, Philadelphia and Georgia was crucial to Biden’s win, and if the Democratic party fails to recognise that and incorporate the grassroots, the party disintegrates at the ballot box, Ocasio-Cortez said.

AOC vs. DNC: Ocasio-Cortez Threatens To Quit Politics, Slams "Hostile" Dems For Not Being Progressive Enough - Just hours after the mainstream media has anointed Joe Biden as President-Elect, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez seems to be having some type of meltdown. With Trump on his way out of office, AOC has turned her ire against a new cause: Democrats that aren't moving far enough to the left.  Perhaps indifferent about the fact that the Presidential election seems to have swung in her favor since there was no "blue wave", AOC said this weekend that Democrats who lost House seats "relied too heavily on outdated Democratic National Committee campaign tactics," according to Fox News. She called those who lost seats "sitting ducks" and refuted the claim that some Democrats thought the ideas of defunding the police and the Green New Deal cost moderates their seats; and made the Presidential race extremely close.  AOC told the New York Times in an interview: “Our party isn’t even online, not in a real way that exhibits competence. And so, yeah, they were vulnerable to these messages, because they weren’t even on the mediums where these messages were most potent. Sure, you can point to the message, but they were also sitting ducks. They were sitting ducks.” She continued: “There’s a reason Barack Obama built an entire national campaign apparatus outside of the Democratic National Committee. And there’s a reason that when he didn’t activate or continue that, we lost House majorities. Because the party — in and of itself — does not have the core competencies, and no amount of money is going to fix that.” She also lashed out at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: “If you are the DCCC, and you’re hemorrhaging incumbent candidates to progressive insurgents, you would think that you may want to use some of those firms. But instead, we banned them. So the DCCC banned every single firm that is the best in the country at digital organizing.” And she also took at shot at the leadership of her party: “The leadership and elements of the party — frankly, people in some of the most important decision-making positions in the party — are becoming so blinded to this anti-activist sentiment that they are blinding themselves to the very assets that they offer.” “I need my colleagues to understand that we are not the enemy. And that their base is not the enemy. That the Movement for Black Lives is not the enemy, that "Medicare-for-all" is not the enemy. This isn’t even just about winning an argument. It’s that if they keep going after the wrong thing, I mean, they’re just setting up their own obsolescence,” she said.

AOC Says She Might Quit Politics Over Hostility From Centrist Democrats - In a new interview, the popular progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has told the New York Times that hostility from establishment centrist Democrats could push her to leave politics, despite a large national support base and her recent reelection. As always, the New York Times article is hidden behind a paywall. In the new interview, she spoke about the frustrations of attempting to champion causes in a political system that is very set in its ways, and very hostile to change. “I don’t even know if I want to be in politics. You know, for real, in the first six months of my term, I didn’t even know if I was going to run for re-election this year,” Ocasio-Cortez told the Times. The congresswoman says that despite feigning support from establishment Democrats on issues like healthcare, police reform, and social justice, they have been extremely hostile towards these causes on a policy level when push comes to shove. “Externally, there’s been a ton of support, but internally, it’s been extremely hostile to anything that even smells progressive,” Ocasio-Cortez explained. The Bronx native waited until after the election was called for Biden to share her candid thoughts with the Times. Ocasio-Cortez and her fellow progressively-minded Democrats called a temporary truce with the establishment centrists in their party to unite behind Biden, but now that he has secured the presidency, her and other progressives say that it is time to put the pressure on, to ensure that the administration actually follows through on its promises. “It’s really hard for us to turn out nonvoters when they feel like nothing changes for them. When they feel like people don’t see them, or even acknowledge their turnout,” she said. Ocasio-Cortez believes that career Democrats have treated her and the causes she believes in as an “enemy.” “I need my colleagues to understand that we are not the enemy. And that their base is not the enemy. That the Movement for Black Lives is not the enemy, that Medicare for all is not the enemy. This isn’t even just about winning an argument. It’s that if they keep going after the wrong thing, I mean, they’re just setting up their own obsolescence,” she said. “I’ve been begging the party to let me help them for two years. That’s also the damn thing of it. I’ve been trying to help. Before the election, I offered to help every single swing district Democrat with their operation. And every single one of them, but five, refused my help,” she added. All four members of the progressive group in congress known as “The Squad” won reelection last week. The squad consists of Representatives Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Ayanna Pressley, all of whom rally behind progressive causes. These four women were some of President Trump’s harshest critics, but it appears that they won’t be giving Biden a pass just because he is a Democrat. They have each vowed to use their influence in Congress to push the incoming administration to adopt more progressive policies.

Matt Taibbi: A Dangerous Moment for the Democratic Party - naked capitalism - theAnalysis.news podcast with Paul Jay, video & transcript. 1 hour, 7 minutes - Matt Taibbi describes why the Democrats are likely to draw all the wrong lessons from their shabby 2020 results.

Mary Trump says her uncle, President Trump, will spend the transition period 'breaking stuff' with 'vengeance' - Mary Trump, the niece of President Donald Trump, has continued her attacks on her uncle, warning that he is likely to spend the transition period "breaking stuff" with "vengeance" after losing the election to President-elect Joe Biden.Writing for The Observer in an article published on Sunday, Mary Trump said that while Trump may not concede to the election, the period that follows will be worse."This is what Donald's going to do: he's not going to concede, although who cares. What's worse is he's not going to engage in the normal activities that guarantee a peaceful transition," she wrote in the article.  "All he's got now is breaking stuff, and he's going to do that with a vengeance. I've always known how cruel he can be," Mary Trump added.   The president's niece wrote that she's worried that he will "go as far" as delegitimizing the new administration, passing pardons that "will demoralize us," and signing a "flurry of executive orders."  "Remember, he will also still be in charge of the US response to the pandemic. There could be a million Americans dead by then under his watch," Mary Trump said. Her comments come as Biden won the 2020 presidential election after a knife-edge race in which he flipped the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Trump has refused to concede the race and said he will push forward with a flurry of legal challenges, as part of an effort to contest the results. His campaign issued a statement on Friday, writing: "This election is not over."

Trump dropped 3 agency heads in the days following the election, amid reports that more departures could be coming -President Donald Trump dropped three agency heads in the days after the election, NPR reported.The ousted agency leaders include: Neil Chatterjee, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration; and Bonnie Glick, deputy administrator of the US Agency for International Development.The departures came amid speculation that other agency heads and government officials may be fired or resign from the Trump administration, including FBI Director Chris Wray and Defense Secretary Mark Esper.  Chatterjee, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, announced on Twitter Thursday that he would no longer be the chairman of FERC, an agency that regulates electricity, natural gas, and oil pipelines, but would remain on as a commissioner.  Chatterjee, who took efforts in his role to promote renewable energy, reportedly said in an interview with the Washington Post that he thinks he may have been "demoted for my independence" in regards to climate change. Gordon-Hagerty, who led the agency that oversees the US nuclear weapons stockpile, resigned on Friday. Sources reportedly told Bloomberg that she resigned after Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette's office told her Trump no longer believed in her ability to do the job. In a statement, Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, a Republican who serves as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, praised Gordon-Hagerty and criticised Brouillette for pushing her out. Glick, who led the agency responsible for foreign aid and development assistance, was terminated in a letter on Friday after refusing to resign, according to The Washington Post. Her former agency, USAID, released a statement the same day announcing it was Glick's last day and praising her work.

Former FERC Chair Chatterjee on demotion by Trump: 'I don't give a f@&!' - Ousted Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chair Neil Chatterjee spoke emotionally about his demotion by President Trump in an early Saturday Facebook post, alluding that he was proud to have taken recent stances that may have irked the White House. Chatterjee was replaced by newest FERC Commissioner James Danly, who has proven to be a more conservative vote in his time on the commission since March. Chatterjee had recently signaled support for carbon pricing in electricity markets, a move that would be damaging for coal. Chatterjee also told E&E News that a refusal to implement Trump’s September order to suspend diversity trainings was a factor in the tumult. “It’s been a difficult few days. I have dedicated almost the entirety of my professional career to public service. I am a deeply flawed person. I know for certain I have not always made the right decision. But I can honestly say that I tried to get it right to the best of my limited abilities,” Chatterjee wrote. “My entire family has sacrificed a great deal so that I could have the opportunity to serve my country. I don’t give a f@&! what people think of me. I will be judged by my grandchildren. And as of this moment I am confident that I will be able to look them in the eyes when they ask me where I stood on the most significant issues of this time and be proud. This is not the last you will hear from me. Not even close. Onward.” Chatterjee, who is Indian American, has been vocal in speaking out against police brutality, condemning events in Georgia and Minnesota calling them “as devastating as they are unjust.” Chatterjee, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has not been shy about having higher political ambitions, creating a Facebook group titled “Hypothetical: Draft Neil Chatterjee for Virginia Governor 2021.” Some Democrats have come out to condemn Chatterjee’s demotion, particularly as the typically-five member panel has dwindled to three members and the Senate slow-walks the confirmation process for Democratic appointees.

FERC: White House demoted Chatterjee over diversity training -- Former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Neil Chatterjee's surprise demotion stemmed, at least in part, from his unwillingness to go along with the Trump administration's governmentwide edicts against diversity training. "Guilty as charged," Chatterjee confirmed to E&E News by text message this afternoon. Two other sources also said diversity trainings were a reason behind the power shift. Observers figured the White House yanked Chatterjee from the chairman position because of his embrace of a carbon pricing proposal and willingness to work on market-based approaches for renewable energy to better compete on the grid. Chatterjee, an Indian American, has been vocal about joining nationwide calls for racial justice following numerous incidents of police brutality. "The instances of brutality we've seen in places like #Minnesota & #Georgia are as devastating as they are unjust," Chatterjee wrote in a May 29 Twitter post. "These appalling actions against our neighbors & fellow #Americans are not representative of the land of the free." Earlier this summer, the White House moved to limit diversity training at agencies after complaints emerged that the seminars used terms like "white privilege." The move has prompted congressional backlash, although DOE and other environment agencies have embraced the change. Chatterjee himself said his demotion may have stemmed from actions to promote FERC's involvement with a carbon tax, including hosting a technical conference on the issue on Sept. 30 (Energywire, Nov. 6).

Trump Fires Mark Esper, Defense Secretary Who Opposed Use of Troops on U.S. Streets — President Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper on Monday, causing turmoil in the military’s leadership and potentially across the government at a time when Mr. Trump’s refusal to concede the election has created a potentially precarious transition.  Mr. Trump announced the decision on Twitter, writing in an abrupt post that Mr. Esper had been “terminated.”  The president wrote that he was appointing Christopher C. Miller, whom he described as the “highly respected” director of the National Counterterrorism Center, to be the acting defense secretary. Mr. Miller will be the fourth official to lead the Pentagon under Mr. Trump.  Mr. Esper’s departure means that Mr. Miller would — if he lasts — see out the end of the Trump administration at the Pentagon. While Mr. Trump has over two months left in office, it could still be a significant time: Defense Department officials have privately expressed worries that the president might initiate operations, whether overt or secret, again Iran or other adversaries during his waning days in office. “Seventy-two days is a lifetime in Trump’s Washington, especially at this rather treacherous moment where he’s lashing out about the election and looking for ways to exert and maintain power,” John Gans, who served as the chief speechwriter at the Pentagon during the Obama administration, said in an email. Mr. Esper’s downfall had been expected for months, after he took the rare step of disagreeing publicly with Mr. Trump in June and saying that active-duty military troops should not be sent to control the wave of protests in American cities.  His firing was quickly followed by speculation that Mr. Trump was not finished: Christopher A. Wray, the F.B.I. director, and Gina Haspel, the C.I.A. director, could be next, according to administration officials. Removing these senior officials — in effect decapitating the national security bureaucracy during the uncertain time between administrations — is hardly without risks. But Mr. Trump enjoys firing people, two senior administration officials said on Monday. The looming end of his presidency, the officials said, gave him only two more months to exercise his privilege to fire. And by announcing the defense secretary’s ouster, Mr. Trump was seen as seeking to reclaim even a bit of the postelection narrative, which has been dominated by President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory.

Defense acting policy chief resigns -- The Pentagon’s acting policy chief has resigned, the Defense Department confirmed on Tuesday.Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Policy James Anderson “submitted his letter of resignation to the President this morning, effective today,” according to a Pentagon statement.The departure comes a day after President Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper.No additional details were given as to why Anderson resigned, though Anthony Tata, President Trump’s controversial pick for the job, will step into the role.Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, “has delegated the responsibilities of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy to Mr. Anthony Tata.  As such, Mr. Tata is the Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy,” according to the statement.The statement added that Thomas Williams will step into the role vacated by Tata and "perform the duties of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy."Politico was the first to report on the departure, and said it was expected that the White House would ask Anderson to resign in the next few days due to disagreements with its personnel office.Anderson was confirmed in June to be deputy undersecretary for policy, though he has been the acting policy head since February when John Rood, the previous confirmed policy chief, was pressured to resign over a perceived lack of loyalty to Trump’s agenda. Anderson’s is the first of several resignations expected in the coming days and weeks following Trump’s loss to President-elect Joe Biden. Trump on Monday announced over Twitter that he had fired Esper in a move that has been lambasted by lawmakers and throws into doubt the military chain of command in the eleven weeks until Biden’s inauguration.

Esper: If my replacement is 'a real yes man' then 'God help us'  Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in an interview published Monday that if his replacement is “a real yes man” then “God help us.” In an interview last week with the Military Times, the now-former secretary said he decided to pick his fights with President Trump while as the head of the Department of Defense, adding he had no regrets in how he handled himself. “At the end of the day, it’s as I said — you’ve got to pick your fights,” he told the Military Times on Nov. 4. “I could have a fight over anything, and I could make it a big fight, and I could live with that —why? Who’s going to come in behind me? It’s going to be a real ‘yes man.’ And then God help us.” When asked if other Defense secretaries have spent as much time attempting to balance the president’s wishes with their potential national security effects, he said, “Probably not. I don’t know, I’ve only worked for a couple.” Trump announced he had fired Esper over Twitter, two days after President-elect Joe Biden was projected to have won the presidential election. The president named Christopher Miller, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, as acting secretary of Defense “effective immediately.” "Chris will do a GREAT job! Mark Esper has been terminated. I would like to thank him for his service,” the president posted. Esper’s relationship with Trump had turned tense over the summer as the former secretary publicly spoke out against Trump’s plan to deploy troops to respond to racial justice protests. He told the Military Times that he had no intention of quitting but expected to be potentially terminated at an unknown time.

Beijing Fears Esper's Exit Raises Risk Of Military Action & 'Accidents' -- In the wake of Defense Secretary Mark Esper's firing early this week The South China Morning Post reports that leaders in Beijing are worried the sudden transition in the key Pentagon post dramatically raises the risk of accidental conflict, or at least signals a tougher stance out of an unpredictable US administration in its las 70 days in the White House.The regional publication also wrote that Christopher Miller as acting defense secretary has also raised serious concerns. One Beijing-based Chinese military analyst, Zhou Chenming, warned of "possible military adventures" related to Taiwan following Esper's exit. And speaking of the new acting defense secretary, Zhou pointed out that "Miller has a strong special forces background. He joined the special forces and commanded it and specializes in surprise attacks and adventure operations."  Beijing has viewed Esper as a more stable influence over the Pentagon and in Trump's cabinet - for example when last month the Pentagon agreed to hasten talks over a 'crisis communications' hotline with Chinese PLA officials.  Zhou further cited increased US naval "freedom of navigation" exercises near China, as well as increased joint US-Taiwan military drills which though long remaining 'unofficial' and undeclared, have now become for the first time "official" - as with this week's drills involving US Marines. An unnamed Chinese military source told SCMP further:"The PLA leadership wonders if someone in the American military is going to take a risk and cause accidental conflicts with the Chinese military, especially in the South China Sea, following Esper’s termination." It does appear a sudden bolder US posture is making itself felt in the region, as Taiwanese media reports: "Taiwan's Naval Command on Monday (Nov. 9) confirmed media reports that a contingent of U.S. Marines have arrived at the invitation of Taiwan's military and will begin training Taiwanese troops for four weeks starting that day, marking the first public acknowledgment of U.S. Marines training in Taiwan in over 40 years."

Trump aides privately plot a flurry of moves in their final 10 weeks -  On Monday, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows gathered senior aides on a call.One of his goals: to plot the conservative policy moves they could push through in their final 10 weeks on immigration, trade, health care, China and school choice.Even as President Donald Trump refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, Meadows was asking aides on the call to give him three goals by the end of the week that could be accomplished by Biden’s inauguration, according to two people briefed on the conversation. Since then, staffers have compiled a list of roughly 15 moves they could make through executive orders, executive actions or finalizing agency rules that they plan to pursue in the coming days, according to interviews with three administration officials.On immigration, they are seeking to finalize a rule related to making the standards stricter around H-1B visas, which allow U.S. employers to temporarily hire foreign workers in specialty occupations. And a potential school-related executive order would seek to give Covid-19 relief money to parents in public school districts shut down by the coronavirus, allowing them to use the funds for private or parochial schools.The planning is the latest sign of White House aides privately acknowledging the outcome of the election and eventual transfer of power to Democrats, while the Trump campaign publicly continues to wage legal battles in a handful of states over ballot counts and unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.“It will put pressure on Biden because a lot of the ideas are popular things,” said Stephen Moore, an informal economic adviser to the White House. “It would be a little politically tough for Biden to go into the White House and cancel them.”Already, the Biden team has plans to sign its own set of executive orders on Jan. 20 to undo some of Trump's four years of policymaking — reversing the Trump travel bans on mostly Muslim-majority countries, restoring protections for undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children, rejoining the Paris climate agreement and revising dozens of public health and environmental regulations Trump rolled back.Up until the election, Trump aides had not made definitive plans for a lame-duck period — even though several were aware that President Barack Obama used his final months in office to finish a raft of regulations and executive orders. To do so would have acknowledged the chance of losing the election, a decidedly un-Trumpian position. Trump aides want to ensure conservative policies and Trump’s norm-breaking views on immigration and trade hold for as long as possible. Inside the Trump White House, Meadows, senior adviser Jared Kushner and White House counsel Pat Cipollone are leading the various discussions on last-minute policymaking. “The people who want to make sure their China policy sticks will attempt to take advantage of that moment in time,” said one former senior administration official, citing actions on Chinese apps and interfaces or strengthening sanctions as potential moves.

Barr urges probes of vote irregularities as Trump mounts legal assault (Reuters) - U.S. Attorney General William Barr told federal prosecutors on Monday to look into “substantial” allegations of irregularities in last week’s election, prompting the top lawyer overseeing voter fraud investigations to resign in protest. Barr sent his letter after days of attacks on the integrity of the election by President Donald Trump and Republican allies, who have alleged without evidence that there was widespread voter fraud. Trump has not conceded the election to Democrat Joe Biden who on Saturday secured more than the 270 votes in the Electoral College needed to win the presidency. Barr told prosecutors that “fanciful or far-fetched claims” should not be a basis for investigation and that his letter did not indicate the Justice Department had uncovered voting irregularities affecting the outcome of the election. But he did say he was authorizing prosecutors to “pursue substantial allegations” of irregularities of voting and the counting of ballots. Richard Pilger, who for years has served as director of the Election Crimes Branch, announced in an internal email that he was resigning from that post after he read “the new policy and its ramifications.” Biden’s campaign said Barr was fueling Trump’s far-fetched allegations of fraud. “Those are the very kind of claims that the president and his lawyers are making unsuccessfully every day, as their lawsuits are laughed out of one court after another,” said Bob Bauer, a senior adviser to Biden. Earlier on Monday, Trump’s campaign filed a lawsuit to block Pennsylvania officials from certifying Biden’s victory in the battleground state. It alleged the state’s mail-in voting system violated the U.S. Constitution by creating “an illegal two-tiered voting system” where voting in person was subject to more oversight than voting by mail. It was filed against Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar and the boards of elections in Democratic-leaning counties that include Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Boockvar’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Trump campaign has filed several lawsuits since claiming the election results were flawed. Judges have tossed out lawsuits in Michigan and Georgia, and experts say Trump’s legal efforts have little chance of changing the election result.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court to hear appeal over granting Trump campaign closer access to count - The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday said it would hear an appeal from the Philadelphia County Board of Elections following a lower court's ruling granting Trump campaign observers closer access to inspect the counting process. The lower court's ruling does not halt counting in the county, which has already posted more than 98 percent of its ballots, according to The New York Times. It's also likely to have little effect on the outcome of the election in the battleground state. The state's high court said it would review whether the case is moot and if it poses legal questions with implications for future elections. Elections officials for Philadelphia had argued that the lower court's order granting observers closer access to the canvassing process will make it more difficult to "accurately, safely, and securely count hundreds of thousands of mail-in and absentee ballots, under intense time pressure and pandemic conditions." The counting is largely complete in Pennsylvania, where President-elect Joe Biden is projected to win and was leading President Trump by nearly 50,000 votes as of Monday afternoon. Lawyers for the Trump campaign told the state supreme court earlier this week, "This is a participatory process that requires the 'observer' to be able to see the same thing the election worker is observing." "Any other interpretation of the statute would essentially eviscerate its intent," they added in their filing. "Candidates have the absolute right to observe the process being undertaken by the City of Philadelphia Board of Elections." The case is one of the many legal challenges brought by Trump against the counting process in battleground states, alleging election fraud but without offering supporting evidence.

Pompeo on election results: 'There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration' --Secretary of State Mike Pompeo battled reporters over President Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the presidential election, predicting “there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration” despite the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden is the projected winner of the race. The comment from Pompeo, a top ally of the president, came during a combative news conference at the State Department on Tuesday when the Cabinet member was asked whether the agency is prepared to engage with Biden’s transition team. "There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration," Pompeo replied. “We're ready,” Pompeo continued. “The world is watching what's taking place. We're gonna count all the votes. When the process is complete, there'll be electors selected. There's a process. The Constitution lays it out pretty clearly. The world should have every confidence that the transition necessary to make sure that the State Department is functional today ... and successful with a president who's in office on Jan. 20, a minute after noon, will also be successful.” Pompeo appeared to smirk after delivering the line about a "second Trump administration," though it was unclear from his remarks themselves whether he was joking. The State Department did not immediately respond to an inquiry about his comments. The secretary of State's remark quickly drew widespread attention and could signal to U.S. allies and enemies alike how to handle results in their own elections. Pompeo, who is seen as a possible 2024 presidential contender, also dismissed as “ridiculous” a separate question on whether he has given guidance to diplomats to refer to Biden as "president-elect" and whether Trump’s refusal to accept the results undermines the State Department’s frequent statements calling for free and fair elections in other countries. “That's ridiculous, and you know it's ridiculous, and you asked it because it's ridiculous,” Pompeo said. ”This department cares deeply to make sure that elections around the world are safe and secure and free and fair, and my officers risk their lives to ensure that that happens. They work diligently on that. We often encounter situations where it's not clear about a particular election. We work to uncover facts, we work to do discovery, to learn whether in fact the outcome, the decision that was made reflected the will of the people. That's our responsibility.” “The United States has an election system that is laid out deeply in our Constitution, and we're going to make sure that we get that right,” he added. “You want every vote to be counted. You want to run the process. We want the lot to be imposed in a way that reflects the reality of what took place, and that's what I think we're engaged in here in the United States and that’s what we work on every place all across the world.” Pompeo then ended the news conference.

McEnany Unveils 234 Pages Of Affidavits Alleging Election Irregularities In Michigan --White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany late Tuesday announced 234 pages of what she said were sworn affidavits alleging election irregularities in a county in Michigan. McEnany appeared alongside Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel on Fox News’ “Hannity,” where she shared several allegations listed in the affidavits—statements made under penalty of perjury - from Wayne County.“We keep hearing the drumbeat of ‘where is the evidence?’ Right here, Sean, 234 pages of sworn affidavits, these are real people, real allegations, signed with notaries,” McEnany said.“They’re alleging - this is one county, Wayne County, Michigan - they are saying that there was a batch of ballots where 60 percent had the same signature,” she told host Sean Hannity.“They’re saying that 35 ballots had no voter record but they were counted anyway, that 50 ballots were run multiple times through a tabulation machine.” McEnany also shared details of another affidavit where a woman alleged that “her son was deceased but nevertheless somehow voted.”“These are one of many many allegations in one county, and a county no less, where poll watchers were in many cases threatened with racial harassment, they were pushed out of the way, and Democrat challengers were handing out documents, how to distract GOP challengers,” she continued.“These are real, and anyone who cares about transparency and the integrity of the system should want this to pursue to the discovery phase.”On Monday, President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign filed a suit in Wayne County Circuit Court alleging voter fraud in ballot-counting procedures. The suit alleges county election officials allowed various fraudulent processing of votes, including telling poll workers to backdate ballots and not verify signatures on absentee ballots. Several witnesses have filed sworn affidavits attesting to alleged election fraud. The plaintiffs, two poll challengers, are seeking a temporary restraining order on ballot counting. The case is pending.  Late Tuesday, the Trump campaign announced the filing of a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in the Western District of Michigan that alleges pervasive election irregularities and violations in Wayne County and seeks a review of the Dominion Voting software which caused glitches in several states.  Read the affidavits and other evidence below:

• Exhibit 1
• Exhibit 2
• Exhibit 3
• Exhibit 4

Trump Loses Pennsylvania Appeal Challenging Ballot Receipt Deadline --Just hours after Trump's law firm, Porter Wright Morris & Arthur LLP, withdrew from a Pennsylvania case (under pressure from The Lincoln Project's cancel culture), and a just a day after the Trump campaign won a minor victory in the multifaceted post-election litigation ongoing in Pennsylvania (that illegally cast ballots must be thrown out), the PA Superior Court has denied a Republican lawsuit challenging the state's ballot receipt deadline.The 3rd Circuit upheld a lower court order rejecting a constitutional challenge to PA's extended, post-Election Day deadline for absentee ballots."...we do so with commitment to a proposition indisputable in our democratic process: that the lawfully cast vote of every citizen must count."The 3rd Circuit agreed with the district judge that the voters who brought the case lacked standing, and also held that the district judge was right to deny last-minute injunctive relief right before the election on the grounds it would upend the status quo for voters.However, a separate challenge remains pending before SCOTUS, though, so the fate of those ballots remains unsettled.

FEC Chairman Says He Believes 'There Is Voter Fraud' In Key States -- The chairman of the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) stated that he believes there is evidence of voter fraud and other alleged irregularities.In a recent interview, FEC Chairman Trey Trainor said reports of fraud in some battleground states are credible “otherwise they would allow the [poll] observers to go in,” referring to reports of some polling areas refusing to allow GOP observers to check on the process on Election Day and the days after.“When you have claims of, you know, 10,000 people who don’t live in the state of Nevada having voted in Nevada, you have the video... they’re (poll workers) either duplicating a spoiled ballot right there or they’re in the process of just marking a ballot that came in blank for a voter,” Trainor told Newsmax.“That’s a process that needs to be observed by election observers.”In the interview, he agreed with Trump’s campaign lawsuits, while saying that questionable actions by elections officials in several states could make the election illegitimate.Trainor, an appointee of President Donald Trump, noted that state laws allow those observers to be there, and “if they’re not,” then it’s an “illegitimate election.” “Our whole political system is based upon transparency to avoid the appearance of corruption,” he said the interview while alleging that Pennsylvania and other states have not been transparent. “I do believe that there is voter fraud taking place in these places,” he added.

Is Trump Going To Attempt A Coup? - Barkley Rosser - I realize that Joe Biden just held a press conference where he basically dismissed the refusal of Trump and a lot of other Republicans to concede the presidential election to Biden as “embarrassing,” laughing at Secretary of State Pompeo who earlier today talked about a transition to a second Trump term, and said it will all be over and fine by Jan. 20. Maybe, but I am somebody who has taken seriously for a long time words from people like Michael Cohen and more recently Mary Trump who have said he simply will not go willingly and will continue to refuse to accept defeat. I have watched various commentators supporting him from time to time thinking, “Will they support him if he declares martial law?” Unfortunately, I think a lot of them will. He certainly is laying the groundwork for making an attempt. The obvious such sign was yesterday’s firing of SecDef Esper, reportedly because Esper made it clear in June he would not order US troops to move on peaceful civilian demonstrators in Washington. Rumor has it he is about to replace the FBI and CIA directors also. And the Undersec of DOD is also out. It certainly looks like he is trying to stock the top levels of the military and intelligence establishment with total toadies who will do his bidding. If he makes the move and invokes the Insurrection Act or simply declares a National Emergency, which, frankly, is in his legal power. Will these newly installed flunkies stand up to him? Who will? I am seriously worried about this, and the more I see people like Mitch McConnell and Sean Hannity just spouting rank lies about the election, my concern grows. I hope I am wrong, but I am now afraid we may be facing a very serious showdown over this, and I see the refusal of certain foreign authoritarian leaders friendly to Trump, such as Putin, not accepting the result, as a sign that they would support him if he made such a move, and we know he really likes and admires those guys. This is a very bad situation.

Thousands flock to DC for pro-Trump rally -- Thousands of people are turning out in Washington, D.C., on Saturday to rally in support of President Trump and to protest the results of the election, one week after President-elect Joe Biden was projected the winner. Supporters gathered in Freedom Plaza near the White House starting early Saturday morning, with a large crowd amassed by noon, when an event organized by Women for America First was set to kick off. The group, led by former Tea Party activist Amy Kremer, had a permit approved Friday for 10,000 people to gather in the plaza. National Park Service officers stationed near the event told The Hill that they were not keeping track of the exact crowd size but that there were no reasons for concern so far. Trump made an early appearance at the event, with his motorcade driving slowly while he waved to supporters through the window. Scores of supporters rushed to get an up-close view as he drove past. The brunt of signs and speakers have focused on Trump's claims of election fraud, mimicking unfounded arguments about fake ballots and rigged results. Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones addressed the crowd early in the event, urging supporters to stick by Trump as long as it takes to expose the alleged election fraud. "It will be weeks, maybe months, but we will stick with this president, Donald J. Trump," he said. The event was marketed as a "Million MAGA March," with White House press secretary and Trump campaign adviser Kayleigh McEnany claiming on Twitter that more than 1 million people were in attendance, though most estimates put the crowd in the thousands. Among what appeared to be several thousand supporters gathered in the plaza by midday Saturday were roughly 100 members of the Proud Boys, a group of self-described "western chauvinists," who congregated in front of the Willard Hotel until escorting Jones to the stage in the center of the plaza. Supporters were spotted around the downtown area showing off signs, flags and other materials in support of Trump. There was also a smattering of people wearing paraphernalia associated with far-right militia groups such as the "boogaloo bois" and the Three Percenters. A large portion of the group started moving toward the Supreme Court shortly after noon.

Trump told advisers he could announce 2024 bid shortly after certification of Biden win: report | TheHill - President Trump has reportedly told some of his advisers that if President-elect Joe Biden is officially certified as the winner of the 2020 race, he could announce his plan to run for the White House in 2024 shortly after, according to The New York Times. The conversation came amid the president mulling different scenarios for his future as he faces an uphill battle challenging election results that have been called in favor of Biden. The Times reported Thursday that at a White House meeting Wednesday, the president spoke with several advisers, many of whom told the president that his chances of changing the outcome of the 2020 election through his campaign’s multistate legal battle are extremely low. “He knows it’s over,” one adviser told the Times. According to interviews with half a dozen advisers and others close to Trump, the president has no larger strategy to continue denying the election results in several key battleground states, but is instead hoping to maintain support from his base as he considers what he will do once he leaves the Oval Office. Trump’s reelection campaign has filed lawsuits in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania over allegations of widespread voter fraud and voting irregularities, with Trump repeatedly claiming on Twitter that he won the election and that there was a coordinated effort by Democrats to steal the election from him. Election security officials, local election officials and courts have disputed the voter fraud claims.The president has reportedly told advisers that if the race is certified for Biden, he is seriously considering announcing his 2024 bid shortly after.

Michigan judge rejects GOP effort to halt county's vote certification - A Michigan judge on Friday rejected a GOP effort to block the state's largest county from certifying its election results, ruling that the lawsuit's claims of widespread voter fraud were "incorrect and not credible." Judge Timothy Kenny of Michigan's Third Circuit Court in Wayne County, which covers the Detroit area, rejected a request by Republican poll challengers for an injunction against finalizing the election results in a battleground state where President-elect Joe Biden has been projected to defeat President Trump. Kenny said in a 13-page decision that he found witness testimony in support of the lawsuit unbelievable, and that stopping the vote count would harm the public interest. "This Court finds that there are legal remedies for Plaintiffs to pursue and there is no harm to Plaintiffs if the injunction is not granted," Kenny wrote. "There would be harm, however, to the Defendants if the injunction is granted." "Waiting for the Court to locate and appoint an independent, nonpartisan auditor to examine the votes, reach a conclusion and then finally report to the Court would involve untold delay," he continued. "It would cause delay in establishing the Presidential vote tabulation, as well as all other County and State races. It would also undermine faith in the Electoral System." The lawsuit was brought by two Republican poll challengers in Wayne County who made sweeping allegations of fraud by poll workers. They alleged, among other things, that unregistered voters were allowed to cast ballots, late absentee ballots had been backdated and that ballots had been processed with false information. Kenny said in his decision that witness testimony supporting the lawsuit had been severely undermined by that of elections officials overseeing the counting process.

Pennsylvania court rejects five Trump campaign, GOP legal challenges to ballots - A Philadelphia, Pa., court on Friday rejected five legal challenges by the Trump campaign and Republicans alleging irregularities for mail-in ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election. The separate petitions challenged more than 8,300 votes in Philadelphia, alleging irregularities because voters did not print their names under their signature or print their address on their mail-in ballots' outer envelope. The Court of Common Pleas in Philadelphia rejected each of the challenges. The court said the challenges did not stand because the county's Board of Elections does not require voters to print their name or fill out their address because the information is already pre-printed on the envelope. It also noted all of the ballots were received on time to be counted. The court said the Trump campaign was "not contending that there has been fraud, that there is evidence of fraud or that the ballots in question were not filled out by the elector in whose name the ballot was issued, and it further appearing that Petitioner does not allege fraud or irregularity in the canvass and counting of the ballots." The loss comes as other Trump legal challenges have fallen flat in several battleground states, with officials in Michigan and Wisconsin disputing the president's claims of voter fraud, saying no evidence has emerged to back up the allegations. Top administration officials in the Department of Homeland Security said in a joint statement this week that the 2020 election was the "most secure in American history." Trump has refused to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, who was declared the winner of the presidential race last Saturday after being projected to defeat Trump in several key states.

Mexican president refuses to recognize Biden victory - Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is refusing to recognize the clear victory of Democrat Joe Biden in the US presidential elections, while making increasingly explicit statements in support of Donald Trump as the incumbent Republican president pursues a conspiracy to annul the election results. The Mexican president is undoubtedly consulting White House aides and top American executives, while his military-intelligence agencies work daily with their American counterparts. To the extent that he is hedging his bets on whether Trump will stay in power, López Obrador’s stance should caution against any belief that Trump does not intend to carry through his coup d’état. Initially, López Obrador (known as AMLO) said on election day that he would not make any predictions. “If we don’t want foreigners making opinions of what happens in our country, we should do the same,” he said. During the following two days, he insisted that “we cannot give an opinion” until the vote count ends. He also pointed several times to the stability of the peso to suggest that Mexico’s economy will not be affected by the result. On Friday, he added that, regardless of the result, investors like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and Banco Santander, will think “Mexico is the most attractive country to invest in Latin America.”

John Kelly says Trump hurting national security by delaying Biden transition - Former White House chief of staff John Kelly said President Trump is hurting national security by hindering President-elect Joe Biden’s ability to receive intelligence briefings and delaying his overall transition. “You lose a lot if the transition is delayed because the new people are not allowed to get their head in the game,” Kelly said Friday in an interview with Politico.. “The president, with all due respect, does not have to concede. But it’s about the nation. It hurts our national security because the people who should be getting [up to speed], it’s not a process where you go from zero to 1,000 miles per hour.” “Mr. Trump doesn’t have to concede if he doesn’t want to, I guess, until the full election process is complete. But there’s nothing wrong with starting the transition, starting to get people like the national security people, obviously the president and the vice president-elect, if they are in fact elected, to start getting them [up to speed] on the intelligence,” he added. Kelly, who served as Trump’s chief of staff for more than a year and a half, also helmed the Department of Homeland Security for more than six months at the start of the administration. The president later dismissed the retired four-star Marine Corps general from the administration at the beginning of 2019 after clashes over his efforts to impose more control over the West Wing. Trump has refused to concede the election, and Biden has been hampered in launching his transition as the General Services Administration (GSA) declines to certify the results of the presidential race, which officials project Biden won. While Biden has maintained his officials have started preparing for a new administration come January, the lack of GSA certification has limited Biden’s access to classified information and hindered his staffers’ ability to work with current government officials. Biden advisers: Trump transition delays putting national security at... Heads roll as Trump launches post-election purge “I know Mr. Trump better than most people do,” said Kelly. “I know that he’ll never accept defeat and, in fact, he doesn’t have to accept defeat here. He just has to do what’s best for the country and in the country’s interest.” 

Trump appointee slow-walks Biden transition. That could delay the president-elect's Covid-19 plan. - The head of the General Services Administration has yet to recognize the incoming Biden administration — a delay that could have consequences for the president-elect's plan to move swiftly on the coronavirus.More than 48 hours after media outlets projected that Joe Bidenhad defeated President Donald Trump to win the White House, GSA chief Emily Murphy had yet to sign the letter of "ascertainment" — a previously mostly noncontroversial process since the passage of the Presidential Transition Act of 1963. Signing the paperwork when a new president is elected triggers the release of millions of dollars in transition funding and allows an incoming administration access to current government officials.Murphy was appointed to the job by Trump in 2017.With the ascertainment delayed, the Biden transition team has been prevented from meeting with officials heading Operation Warp Speed and other Trump administration coronavirus efforts."America's national security and economic interests depend on the federal government signaling clearly and swiftly that the United States government will respect the will of the American people and engage in a smooth and peaceful transfer of power," a Biden-Harris transition spokesperson said Monday in a statement.The Biden transition official said Murphy's hold-up could also affect the Biden team's access to classified information for incoming national security officials; access to secure locations for private discussions about personnel, budget and policy issues; and access to the $6.3 million of congressionally appropriated funds designated for transition activities, office space and equipment.Asked later Monday whether Biden's team might take legal action to force the GSA to recognize the transition, a Biden transition official said: "Legal action is certainly a possibility. But there are other options, as well, that we are considering."Chris Lu, who led President Barack Obama's transition in 2008, said: "Close cooperation between the outgoing and incoming administrations is always important, but it's especially critical when the country is facing a public health crisis and an economic recession. "It's time for Donald Trump to put the national interest above his political interest," he added.

Biden task force member predicts US could soon hit 200,000 daily coronavirus cases -Less than one week after the U.S. hit another grim milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic — where the country recorded over 100,000 new daily cases — experts warn that things stand to get worse. Speaking to CNN Tuesday, Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board, made a grim prediction."We are watching cases increase substantially in this country far beyond, I think, what most people ever thought could happen," he said, “It will not surprise me if in the next weeks we see over 200,000 new cases a day.” State data indicates that as a nation, the U.S. has seen a 64 percent increase in new reported cases over the past two weeks.This contributed to the approximate 10.1 million confirmed cases so far seen over the course of the entire pandemic in the U.S. alone. Many states leading the U.S. in new cases, such as North and South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, West Virginia, New Mexico, and others are also seeing rapid surges inhospitalizations as well. In addition to this bleak indication, data suggests at least an 18 percent increase in deaths associated with infections. Sources like The COVID Tracking Project states that approximately 59,000 Americans are hospitalized with the virus.  While infections are surging across multiple states, two drug companies have made strides in the race to a vaccine. On Monday, Pfizer announced promising data coming out of clinical trials, and Novavax stated that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) put its vaccine candidate on a fast-track road to approval.

Quick Comments on the Biden-Harris Covid Plan: Not Much Sizzle and No Steak – Yves Smith - Lambert and I both recognize the need to provide a serious treatment of the so-called Biden-Harris Covid plan. However, the new, improved transition version of the scheme is so threadbare compared to the extensive, full bore assault campaign version that the shared elements are few and far between. First, this new plan isn’t the same as the one on the Biden campaign site. The campaign version had no mention of contact tracing, while this iteration does. But if you simply skim the campaign version versus the president-presumptive one, you’ll see tons of program proposals from the campaign have vanished, like emergency paid leave (with reimbursements to employers), income support for gig workers whose pay has declined, rental assistance, and support for small businesses. The campaign plan also had sweeping promises about paying for all Covid treatments, not just testing. For instance, this section, by using the term “balance billing” clearly meant it included hospitalizations and emergency room visits: All copayments, deductibles and any cost-sharing for treatment for COVID-19 for insured. Providers will submit cost-sharing claims to NDMS that document private insurance contractual arrangement for co-payments. To ensure maximum provider participation and minimum billing abuses to consumers, current Medicare law’s “conditions of participation” and system-wide prohibitions against balance billing and surprise medical bills will apply.  There’s not a peep about any of this in the new version.  The lack of financial support for workers to stay at home because they are sick, quarantined, or just waiting for test results makes it difficult to treat this scheme as serious. And the failure to even ask for the government to cover all Covid treatment costs, not just the kind that can be administered with a needle means a lot of people who have or think they have Covid won’t seek treatment until they are really really ill, increasing the load on hospitals and producing worse outcomes.  And the severe downgrading of his Covid plan shows Biden embracing the Obama playbook: meet the Republicans 75% of the way when you start negotiating, with the expectation that the final deal will move even more in their direction. Needless to say, leaving financial and health victims of Covid more or less on their own makes it impossible to implement something like the UK’s four-week national lockdown, which shuttered gyms, pubs, restaurants, and non-essential shopping (which includes non-essential goods at retailers like Tesco). Many parts of the US are at or nearing the point where hospitals are getting strained. Once we pass that level, Covid direct and indirect death rates will spike (more will avoid anything short of absolutely essential medical treatment).

Feud Breaks Out On Wall Street Over Lockdowns: JPM Says "No Benefit' While BofA Sees Urgent Need - A quick recap on where we stand: the sharp rebound in US daily cases continues, with new infections topping 144,000 yesterday, up from 131,000 the previous day. The 7-day average is 125,000, up from a low of 34,000 two months ago. The week-on-week growth in US cases has re-accelerated to 40%, up from 20% last week. The Midwest continues to be the most affected region with Illinois (at 9,830) and Wisconsin (5,920) reporting the highest 7-day average in new cases among US states alongside Texas (7,960). However, the breadth of the virus spread is widening, with all states having seen new daily cases rise over the past week amid signs that the virus is resurging in US cities after mostly hitting rural areas over previous months. Daily death cases have reached its peak since August, at 1.1k yesterday. So far, the policy response has been limited and local. Yesterday, Ohio strengthened mask rules, threatening to close businesses that don’t follow the rules. Over the past week, numerous state governors warned that new mandatory measures might be required if cases continue rising. Some, including the governors of North Carolina, Iowa and Indiana, have imposed new measures in all or part of their states, often focused on indoor gatherings. In New York, private indoor and outdoor gatherings will now be limited to 10 people, while bars and restaurants must close at 10pm. In short, we are creeping slowly but surely toward what appears to be another nationwide lockdown, especially if Biden is in the White House.  As we detailed yesterday in a surprising report out of JPMorgan, the bank found no meaningful curve development differences between countries with and without strong curve intervention.This makes the bank question if existing public health intervention (i.e., lockdown/ stricter social distancing) should remain in place next year, and leads JPM to conclude that "public health policy should consider approaches biased towards economic/pubic mental health over the urge to close the curve in 2021."To reach its "startling" conclusion, JPMorgan compared countries without lockdown, keeping the economy open under certain levels of social-distancing (Brazil, US, Sweden, Japan, Korea) to countries with strong curve intervention (UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, India) to see any meaningful differential in the curve development.This outcome suggest that COVID-19 follows a similar diffusion and development process of other infectious diseases with certain life cycles. Therefore, JPMorgan would argue that public health policy should consider a bit more biased approach on economic/pubic mental health over the aim to close the infection curve in 2021 as lockdowns could be costly to the economy. JPMorgan's conclusion: "Keeping public activities open and tracing susceptible people leveraging technology looks to have better risk reward to us."

Biden Picks Longtime Adviser And Obama Ebola Czar As Chief Of Staff - Joe Biden has chosen his longtime adviser and former Obama admin Ebola 'Czar' Ron Klain to reprise his role as Chief of Staff, according to the Associated Press, which - if Biden is elected - means he'll likely be swamped with pandemic-related challenges amid a divided Congress. "His deep, varied experience and capacity to work with people all across the political spectrum is precisely what I need in a White House chief of staff as we confront this moment of crisis and bring our country together again," Biden said in a Wednesday night statement.Klain, a Harvard Law graduate and former editor of the Harvard Law Review, previously served as Biden's Chief of Staff from 2009-2011, as well as former Vice President Al Gore from 1995-1999 after having worked on the Clinton-Gore campaign in 1992. He was a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Byron White in 1987 and 1988, and served as Chief Counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee during Clarence Thomas's Supreme Court nomination.Towards the end of the Clinton presidency and the lead-up to the 2000 election, Al Gore's campaign chairman Tony Coelho forced Klain out after Gore loyalists felt he was too loyal to the Clintons, only to return to the Gore campaign the next year. He eventually served as General Counsel of Gore's Recount Committee during the disputed 2000 election.

Ben Carson tests positive for coronavirus - Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Ben Carson has tested positive for coronavirus, a spokesperson and a longtime adviser confirmed on Monday. "Spoke with my brother Dr. Carson earlier and he is doing extraordinarily well. He is so grateful to have access to powerful therapeutics. We also pray for the millions who celebrated over the weekend and may have exposed themselves to COVID19," tweeted Armstrong Williams, who advised Carson's presidential campaign. A HUD spokesperson also confirmed the diagnosis. Carson is the latest high-ranking Trump administration official to contract the virus. ABC News, which first reported Carson had tested positive, noted that Carson was experiencing symptoms on Monday morning but was in good spirits. Carson attended a White House gathering on election night last week, where dozens of guests mingled and few wore masks or observed social distancing. Several White House staff members, including chief of staff Mark Meadows, have since tested positive for the virus. President-elect Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the 2020 election, but President Trump has refused to concede. Carson and other administration officials have largely avoided commenting on the election results thus far. Carson, who ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016, has been one of just a handful of officials to serve in Trump's Cabinet since the beginning of his term, and he has been the lone Black person in the Cabinet throughout.

Trump associate David Bossie tests positive for coronavirus - David Bossie, who was recently tapped with overseeing the Trump campaign's legal challenges in the aftermath of Election Day, has tested positive for coronavirus, a person familiar with the matter confirmed Monday. The campaign last week had reportedly tasked Bossie with leading efforts to pursue lawsuits in battleground states where President Trump was trailing President-elect Joe Biden. It's unclear how his diagnosis will impact that effort, which has largely been scattershot and marked by chaotic press conferences. Bossie served as a deputy campaign manager during Trump's 2016 campaign and has remained an outside adviser in the four years since. He took on an increased role with the campaign in the closing weeks of the 2020 campaign and traveled with the president on some of his final rally trips. Trump and his allies have alleged widespread voter fraud to claim the election was "stolen" by Democrats, but there is no evidence to support their claim. The lawsuits they have filed thus far have either been dismissed, would not change the result in the states where they are challenging the outcome or deal with process and not actual vote counts. Bossie is the latest Trump associate to contract the virus after Election Day. Others include White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and several other lower-level White House staff members. Meadows and Carson were among those at last Tuesday's election night party at the White House, where dozens of guests mingled without masks. It was not immediately clear if Bossie was in attendance.

Trump’s Election Night Party Linked to New COVID Cases - It appears another coronavirus outbreak is ballooning within the White House: First came Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, whose COVID diagnosis was announced on Friday, November 6. Ben Carson, secretary for Housing and Urban Development, was next up on Monday, followed by Trump campaign adviser David Bossie. According to the Associated Press, these cases trace back to Donald Trump’s Election Night viewing party, an indoor event featuring “few masks and no social distancing.” Meaning: It looks like the administration may have just held its second superspreader event in as many months. More than a week after the fact, the positive test results keep rolling in.“Several hundred” people reportedly attended the party on November 3 in the White House East Room, where Meadows reportedly circulated — maskless, of course. According to Intelligencer’s Olivia Nuzzi, his contacts that night found out about their exposure not from the White House, but from a late-night Bloomberg report that broke the news on November 6. Apparently Meadows took pains to keep his test results secret, a move one of Nuzzi’s sources correctly labeled “fucked up.” In fact, Meadows received his diagnosis on November 4, just after the party; the day before, he reportedly visited campaign headquarters, and spent time in the White House residence with Trump’s adult children and their spouses. Now, infections are fanning out across his circle: According to Bloomberg, at least five other people have tested positive, including top Meadows aide, Cassidy Hutchinson; Charlton Boyd, one of Jared Kushner’s aides; and campaign aide Nick Trainer.  Bloomberg could not confirm whether or not Meadows has shown symptoms, but Carson apparently has. HUD deputy chief of staff Coalter Baker told Politico that Carson visited Walter Reed Army Medical Center — where Trump was recently hospitalized during his own bout of COVID — and enjoyed “access to effective therapeutics which aid and markedly speed his recovery.” Bossie, who actually tested positive on Sunday but didn’t immediately make a public statement, did not return Politico’s request for comment.Apparently, though, Bossie isn’t the only one to have quietly received test results and fail to air them. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that three more people inside the White House have now been confirmed as COVID-positive. Political director Brian Jack was reportedly diagnosed over the weekend, having attended Trump’s viewing party days before.According to NBC, Healy Baumgardner, who used to be a White House aide, now works in private equity. She reportedly attended the party at Rudy Giuliani’s invitation and tested positive on November 11.

There’s a New COVID Outbreak in the Trump White House -Weeks after President Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19, there’s a new cluster of cases tied to his administration. At least some of the current outbreak may be connected to the Trump campaign’s Election Night watch party, a gathering of more than 100 people where safety precautions like social distancing and mask wearing were few and far between. Since last Tuesday, several have tested positive — although, as during the previous outbreak, the White House has refused to provide updates of affected staff. Here is a running tally of those known to have contracted the virus in recent days.

• Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s pugilistic ex-campaign manager said he had tested for the virus on Thursday. He attended the White House election party, but thinks he contracted the virus in Philadelphia, where he has spent the last few days amplifying the president’s baseless voter-fraud theories.
• RNC Chief of Staff Richard Walters tested positive on Thursday morning. The RNC said he had not attended the White House election party, and that he is “following CDC guidelines and notifying staff who came into contact with him.”
• Former campaign aide Healy Baumgardner told NBC she tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. Baumgardner, who now works in private equity, attended the Election Night party as a guest of Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer.
• White House political director Brian Jack reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus over the weekend. The diagnosis came after Jack attended Trump’s Election Night event.
• At least two unnamed West Wing aides have reportedly tested positive, though it was not immediately clear whether they attended the Election Night party.
• Mark Meadows, the president’s chief of staff, reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, a diagnosis he and the White House kept a secret until it wasdisclosed by Bloomberg late Friday. Despite spending Election Night in the White House residence with Trump’s family and senior staffers and in the East Room, where both the watch party and Trump’s 2:30 a.m. address took place, the chief of staff opted to inform only a small number of advisers of his diagnosis after Election Day, and they were told to keep quiet.
• In the absence of a public statement about Meadows’s test, Intelligencer’s Olivia Nuzzi reported that other administration staffers who had direct contact with Meadows found out about their possible exposure when the media reported it.
• Ben Carson, The secretary for Housing and Urban Development tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday and was “briefly” treated at Walter Reed Army Medical Center after experiencing symptoms, a HUD official told Politico.
• The diagnosis comes days after Carson attended Trump’s Election Night watch party. He told the Washington Post that he felt “terrific” after suffering a fever and chills and said he had contracted the virus “probably somewhere, out there in the universe,” listing the White House party as one possibility for where he’d caught it.
• David Bossie, Trump’s 2016 deputy campaign manager and outside adviser, who has been spearheading the president’s postelection legal strategy, reportedly tested positive on Sunday.

Over 130 Secret Service officers off sick or quarantining following Donald Trump's rallies - More than 130 Secret Service officers have been infected with coronavirus or quarantining after travelling with President Donald Trump on his campaign trips. The stricken officers account for 10 per cent of the president’s core security team and their absence was described by one supervisor as “very problematic”. Mr Trump held a flurry of rallies during the week leading up to the November 3 election. On November 2, he went on a total of five, including in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and two stops in Wisconsin. The agency is also examining whether any of the infections instead trace back to the White House, where many Secret Service officers report for duty each day. It coincided with a growing number of prominent Trump campaign staffers and White House officials falling ill in the wake of campaign events, where many attendees did not wear masks. Among those who are infected are Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff, and outside political advisers Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie. It is the second outbreak at the White House in recent weeks. The last one was traced back to a “superspreader” event celebrating the nomination of Supreme Court judge Amy Coney Barret. Mr Trump tested positive six days later, along with aide Hope Hicks, and Bill Stepien, his campaign manager.

Trump Says COVID Vaccine Won’t Be Delivered To New York --On Friday, President Donald Trump said that the US government would not deliver a coronavirus vaccine to New York when it is available, because the state’s governor previously commented that he had concerns that the Trump administration would rush the vaccine for political gain.During a press conference from the White House Rose Garden on Friday, the president said that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo “will have to let us know when he’s ready for it because otherwise, we can’t be delivering it to a state that won’t be giving it to its people immediately.”“He doesn’t trust where the vaccine is coming from. These are coming from the greatest companies anywhere in the world, greatest labs in the world, but he doesn’t trust the fact that it’s this White House, this administration, so we won’t be delivering it to New York until we have authorization to do so and that pains me to say that,” Trump said.Sullen Trump lashes out at New York, says whole country will get vaccine except New York, until Governor asks nicely. pic.twitter.com/hadL97HrqE— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 13, 2020Rich Azzopardi, a senior advisor to Cuomo, later posted a response on Twitter, saying that the governor “is fighting to ensure the communities hit hardest by COVID get the vaccine.“  Trump “has failed with his pandemic response, lied to Americans about how bad it was when he knew otherwise & was fired by voters for his incompetence,” Azzopardi said.

Alaska congressman who ridiculed coronavirus now says he has COVID-19 (Reuters) - The Alaska congressman who once ridiculed the seriousness of the novel coronavirus, calling it the “beer virus,” said on Thursday he is now infected with it. The announcement by Representative Don Young comes as the state's governor on Thursday warned that health-care and public-safety systems were at risk of being overwhelmed by the rapid spread of the virus across Alaska. Young, the 87-year-old Republican who is Alaska's sole U.S. House of Representatives member, made the announcement on Twitter. "I have tested positive for COVID-19. I am feeling strong, following proper protocols, working from home in Alaska, and ask for privacy at this time," he said on the Twitter post. Young, who was just re-elected to his 25th term and is the longest-serving member of Congress, said in March that COVID-19 concerns were “created primarily by hysteria.” "I call it the beer virus. How do you like that?" he said in a March speech at a senior center in Palmer, Alaska, in a mocking reference to Corona beer. "Anyway, it attacks us senior citizens. I'm one of you. I still say we have to as a nation, as a state, to go forth with the everyday activities."

Nevada Gov. Sisolak tests positive for COVID-19 - Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) announced Friday that he tested positive for the coronavirus, the latest governor to contract the highly-infectious virus. Sisolak said he is currently not experiencing any symptoms and that the virus was detected as part of a routine testing program, though he had been feeling fatigued earlier this week. He last tested negative on Feb. 6. The Nevada governor is isolating at the governor’s mansion, and all of his public events have been canceled. He’s also been in touch with contact tracers since he was diagnosed. Sisolak was last in his offices in Carson City on Thursday, and he did not clarify where he could have gotten infected. Any staff member who is considered to be a close contact to Sisolak through the tracing process will remain in quarantine. “It was important to me to notify Nevadans as soon as possible of my positive COVID-19 test results,” Sisolak said in a statement. “I want to thank the health officials who assisted me through this process. … With my case, I want to underscore the importance of Nevadans to stay at home as much as they possibly can at this time.”

Democrats blast Minnesota GOP legislators for alerting only Republicans to virus cases - Minnesota Senate Democrats blasted the state's GOP legislators for allegedly failing to inform opposing party members of COVID-19 infections among some Republican staff. One day after reports emerged that state Sen. Dave Senjem (R) tested positive for COVID-19 on Nov. 5, Republican senators and staffers were informed in a Tuesday memo that some party members tested positive for the virus, the Star Tribune reported. Members of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) were reportedly not informed about the outbreak among some GOP legislators. "It is outrageous and completely unacceptable that Senate DFLers were not notified of the recent COVID-19 outbreak among Senate Republicans prior to Thursday's floor session," Senate Minority Leader Susan Kent (DFL) said in a statement. Kent called the "lack of transparency" a "disregard for the health and safety of others" to other staff and members of Congress. Senate Republican Chief of Staff Craig Sondag sent a memo to Republicans and staffers instructing them to work from home, including on Thursday's slated special session. Still, the memo reportedly was not initially given to Democrats across the aisle. The Hill contacted Sondag for comment but did not immediately receive a response. Senate spokeswoman Rachel Aplikowski confirmed the authenticity of the memo to Minnesota Public Radio (MPR).

ObamaCare faces Supreme Court test with new conservative majority - The Supreme Court will hear arguments Tuesday in the latest GOP challenge to ObamaCare, this time with a strengthened conservative majority on the bench. The arguments come just a week after a contentious election in which more than 74 million Americans voted for President-elect Joe Biden, who campaigned on bolstering the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Court watchers say a number of outcomes are possible when a decision is handed down, likely in June. The most extreme scenario would involve conservative justices striking down the entire 2010 law, a result that doctors’ groups say would threaten to throw the nation’s health care system into chaos at a time when the country could still be in the grips of the coronavirus pandemic. “Invalidating provisions that have expanded access to health insurance coverage … would have a devastating impact on doctors, patients, and the American health care system in normal times,” reads an amicus brief from the American Medical Association. “However, striking down the ACA at a time when the system is struggling to respond to a pandemic would be a self-inflicted wound that could take decades to heal." Ending ObamaCare would cause some 21 million Americans to lose health coverage. It would also remove protections for 133 million people with preexisting conditions, scrapping regulations that prevent insurers from denying coverage or charging higher premiums based on a person’s health status. The political ground has shifted at an astonishing rate since the justices agreed in March to take up this latest Republican challenge to the ACA. Since then, the country has gone from enjoying historically low unemployment and fewer than two dozen coronavirus cases, to seeing millions of newly unemployed Americans lose job-based health coverage and more than 10 million coronavirus infections across the country. The makeup of the court has also changed with the September death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett last month, giving conservatives a solid 6-3 majority.  For years, Trump and Republicans in Congress have vowed to replace the ACA with a superior health plan that offered the same protections for those with preexisting conditions. But despite having a decade to develop such a plan — and controlling both chambers of Congress during Trump’s first two years in office — Republicans have been unable to pass a replacement. The challengers in Tuesday's lawsuit comprise a group of more than a dozen Republican-led states. They argue that Trump’s 2017 tax cut law effectively rendered a key provision of ObamaCare unconstitutional and therefore the entire health law should be struck down. The GOP challengers note that the law's original design depended on a requirement that most people purchase insurance and set up a tax penalty for noncompliance. The Trump tax cuts zeroed out the penalty, which, according to the litigants, should cause the whole ObamaCare structure to collapse. The Justice Department, on behalf of the Trump administration, will join the GOP states on Tuesday in urging the justices to strike down the law in its entirety. Court watchers say that even if the challengers convince the justices that the health requirement provision is now illegal, they may face difficulty persuading the court to strike down the entire law. Instead, the court could opt to simply remove the so-called individual mandate that makes the purchase of coverage compulsory, while preserving the rest of the statute. Still, to retain the law, the most likely scenario would involve the court’s three more liberal justices persuading two or more conservative members to join their ranks.

What to Know as ACA Heads to Supreme Court — Again - - Lambert Strether - The Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear oral arguments in a case that, for the third time in eight years, could result in the justices striking down the Affordable Care Act. The case, California v. Texas, is the result of a change to the health law made by Congress in 2017. As part of a major tax bill, Congress reduced to zero the penalty for not having health insurance. But it was that penalty — a tax — that the high court ruled made the law constitutional in a 2012 decision, argues a group of Republican state attorneys general. Without the tax, they say in their suit, the rest of the law must fall, too.  After originally contending that the entire law should not be struck down when the suit was filed in 2018, the Trump administration changed course in 2019 and joined the GOP officials who brought the case.  There is a long list of ways this could play out. The justices could declare the entire law unconstitutional — which is what a federal district judge in Texas ruled in December 2018. But legal experts say that’s not the most likely outcome of this case. First, the court may avoid deciding the case on its merits entirely, by ruling that the plaintiffs do not have “standing” to sue. The central issue in the case is whether the requirement in the law to have insurance — which remains even though Congress eliminated the penalty or tax — is constitutional. But states are not subject to the so-called individual mandate, so some analysts suggest the Republican officials have no standing. In addition, questions have been raised about the individual plaintiffs in the case, two consultants from Texas who argue that they felt compelled to buy insurance even without a possible penalty.  The court could also rule that by eliminating the penalty but not the rest of the mandate (which Congress could not do in that 2017 tax bill for procedural reasons), lawmakers “didn’t mean to coerce anyone to do anything, and so there’s no constitutional problem,” University of Michigan law professor Nicholas Bagley said in a recent webinar for the NIHCM Foundation, the Commonwealth Fund and the University of Southern California’s Center for Health Journalism.Or, said Bagley, the court could rule that, without the tax, the requirement to have health insurance is unconstitutional, but the rest of the law is not. In that case, the justices might strike the mandate only, which would have basically no impact.  It gets more complicated if the court decides that, as the plaintiffs argue, the individual mandate language without the penalty is unconstitutional and so closely tied to other parts of the law that some of them must fall as well. Even there the court has choices. One option would be, as the Trump administration originally argued, to strike down the mandate and just the pieces of the law most closely related to it — which happen to be the insurance protections for people with preexisting conditions, an extremely popular provision of the law. The two parts are connected because the original purpose of the mandate was to make sure enough healthy people sign up for insurance to offset the added costs to insurers of sicker people.Another option, of course, would be for the court to follow the lead of the Texas judge and strike down the entire law.While that’s not the most likely outcome, said Bagley, if it happens it could be “a hot mess” for the nation’s entire health care system. As just one example, he said, “every hospital is getting paid pursuant to changes made by the ACA. How do you even go about making payments if the thing that you are looking to guide what those payments ought to be is itself invalid?”

More than 660 parents of separated immigrant children cannot be located by the US government - The horrors of the Trump administration’s family separation policy are continuing to come to light. After an ACLU lawsuit last month revealed that the parents of 545 immigrant children could not be located, a lawyer tasked with reuniting families disclosed this week that the total has now risen to 666. Almost 20 percent of the children were under the age of 5 when separated. The Trump administration began separating children from their parents in July 2017 under a “pilot program” in the El Paso, Texas area, which lasted until November of that year. In April 2018, the policy was fully implemented at the US-Mexico border and lasted until June 2018, when a US District Judge issued an injunction limiting family separations and ordering the government to reunite all migrant families. Under this so-called “zero tolerance” policy, all migrants crossing the border, including asylum seekers, were referred to the Department of Justice for prosecution. Undocumented immigrants were imprisoned, with their children sent to various Office of Refugee Resettlement shelters around the country. The separated children included infants and toddlers. In October 2018, Amnesty International reported that during the period April-August 2018, 6,022 “family units” were separated. Since the government’s “zero tolerance” policy officially ended in June 2018, the government has acknowledged separating another 1,100 children from their families, with the number undoubtedly far higher. The courts have proved ineffective in putting an end to family separation. On January 13, 2020, Judge Dana Sabraw, the same judge who issued the initial injunction, refused to issue further restrictions on the government’s ability to separate families, allowing immigration officials discretion to continue to separate children where the “parent is unfit or presents a danger to the child.” In fact, immigration officials have used this “discretion” to separate families based on “crimes” such as traffic violations or mere suspicion that an adult is not the actual parent of a child. Now, more than two years after Judge Sabraw ordered the government to reunite all children, the process of finding parents is still ongoing. About two-thirds of the parents of the initially identified 545 separated children were deported, making reunification extremely difficult, if not impossible. According to Steven Herzog, the attorney leading the effort to reunite the separated children, the new group of 121 children includes those “for whom the government did not provide any phone number.” These additional children were mostly separated during the 2017 pilot program.

Biden Plans To Re-Open The US To Refugees and Increase Admissions To 110,000 - President-elect Joe Biden has already asserted that he plans to issue a wide range of executive orders to change Trump-era policies once he gets into office, and now he has indicated that he plans on drastically changing the country’s attitude towards refugees during his presidency.In 2016, President Barack Obama set the limit on refugees allowed into the country at 110,000, while Trump has lowered the cap on refugee admissions every year. For the year of 2020, the cap is at a record low of 15,000.According to NPR, Biden plans to “set the annual global refugee admissions cap to 125,000, and seek to raise it over time.” Becca Heller, executive director of the International Refugee Assistance Project, said that the increased cap will send a message that refugees are welcome in the country. “The point is not to hit 125,000 — the point is to signal both to the rest of the world and also to the domestic population in our own government that this is a priority again. It’s less relevant if we hit the exact number and more relevant that we say, ‘Admitting refugees is really important. We are going to aim at this high number and invest in infrastructure and get as close as we can,’ ” Heller said.  President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Biden on the campaign trail for his immigration stance, and has told his supporters that his opponent planned to flood the country with refugees, and turn midwestern states into refugee camps.

Donald Trump diversity executive order likely to be scrapped by Biden - A Joe Biden administration would likely scrap an executive order from the Trump administration that restricts the federal government and its contractors from offering diversity training that President Donald Trump labeled "divisive" and "un-American."Trump's executive order, which affected government agencies, Fortune 500 companies, educational institutions, nonprofits and any others that have federal contracts or plan to apply for them, had an almost immediate chilling effect on reinvigorated efforts to address racial disparities in the workplace after the death of George Floyd, a Black man, under the knee of white officer in Minneapolis in May. “I think it’s highly probable that this executive order will be rescinded in fairly short order,”  Critics say the executive order was a broadside against diversity and inclusion programs seeking to reverse patterns of discrimination and exclusion going back decades. A USA TODAY investigation found that more than 55 years after the Civil Rights Act,less than 2% of the top executives at the nation’s largest companies are Black.  Civil rights groups filed a lawsuit late last month alleging the executive order violates free speech rights in an "extraordinary and unprecedented act by the Trump administration to undermine efforts to foster diversity and inclusion in the workplace."“We think this is one of the most troubling actions taken by the Trump administration while in office,” Ajmel Quereshi, senior counsel with the NAACP Legal Defense fund, one of the lawyers suing the Trump administration, told USA TODAY. “A new administration would fully have the power to rescind this executive order, and our hope is they would.”The executive order's stated goal is "to combat offensive and anti-American race and sex stereotyping and scapegoating."The Labor Department said the elimination of "race and sex stereotyping and scapegoating in employment" was "a key civil rights priority of the Trump Administration." A White House memo in late September suggested rooting out "ideologies that label entire groups of Americans as inherently racist or evil" in diversity training materials by searching for keywords such as "white privilege," "systemic racism," "intersectionality" and "unconscious bias."

Federal agents arrest New York man for threatening to “exterminate” Democrats, protesters - On Tuesday, the US attorney for the Eastern District of New York filed federal charges against Brian Maiorana, 54, of Staten Island, New York for allegedly making violent and threatening interstate communications. Federal agents arrested Maiorana the same day. Maiorana, a Trump supporter, posted violent threats online over the summer. In the aftermath of the November 3 election and the November 7 declaration of Joe Biden as the winner, his postings became even more explicit and menacing. According to federal prosecutors, on November 5 Maiorana warned on social media that “the carnage needs to come in the form of extermination of anyone that claims to be democrat… as well as their family members.”As demonstrators were celebrating Biden’s victory over the weekend, Maiorana, according to the prosecutors, went online and implored “all right thinking people” to “hit the streets while these scumbags are celebrating and start blowing them away.”On November 8, the day after Biden passed the 270-electoral vote threshold, Maiorana posted explicitly anti-Semitic threats aimed at Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, as well as at the FBI. “The Turner Diaries must come to life,” he allegedly wrote, referencing the fascistic text that influenced the Oklahoma City bombers. “We blow up the FBI building for real.”  He added, “As the Jew senator from Jew York said, nothing is off the table.”

Michigan AG details extremist plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer, including plan to burn Capitol building -- No one would get out of the Michigan State Capitol alive under the initial plan devised by the accused ringleader in a Michigan terrorist plot, according to the Michigan Attorney General’s Office.Adam Fox’s “Plan A” wasn’t just storming the building and taking hostages, as officials have already said publicly – it was to get in there and televise the execution of tyrants over the course of a week, with no one coming out alive. Or, alternatively, lock the doors and set the building on fire. That’s according to a brief filed by the Michigan Attorney General’s Office in Jackson County’s 12th District Court against the pretrial release of a man, Pete Musico, 42, of Munith, who is charged at the state level in connection to a plot to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.The brief was filed ahead of Musico’s Oct. 23 bond hearing, where his bond was reduced from $10 million to $100,000. The AG’s office released the brief to the Detroit Free Press of the USA TODAY Network after it confirmed the document did not fall under a protective order in the case.Musico was released on bond Oct. 30 with a GPS tether, according to the Jackson County Sheriff's Office.The filing further spells out the AG’s accusations, while dipping into those against the federally charged Adam Fox, 37, of Grand Rapids. The accusations, aside from those against Fox, include:

• Musico once claimed to have thrown a Molotov cocktail into a police officer’s home
• Musico stated he tried to get a Michigan State Police trooper to touch him at a rally at the Michigan State Capitol in 2020
• The Wolverine Watchmen, the so-called “militia” group now accused in the domestic terrorism plot, was developed after a member “finished” a weapons charge
• The Wolverine Watchmen had a private Facebook group with rules that included “Boojahidden only, No feds, statist, cops, bootlickers or commies or ethnonationalist”
• A training exercise plan included taking over a hostile vehicle and ambushes

Michigan conspirators planned to storm capitol, conduct livestream executions, lock legislators inside and burn building down - According to a legal brief recently filed by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, the fourteen militiamen who were arrested in October for plotting to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer also planned to storm the capitol, capture hostages, live stream a horrific series of executions, and target the entire elected state leadership and members of the state legislature. The revelations come as Michigan judges have quietly released three of the plotters, including Wolverine Watchmen cofounder Pete Musico. Men carry automatic rifles outside the Capitol Building in Lansing, Michigan on April 15, 2020. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya) The attorney general’s office wrote: “Plan A consisted of recruiting 200 men and then storm the Capitol building in Lansing while Congress was in session. [By congress, the plotters evidently meant the state legislature]. They were to take hostages, execute tyrants and have it televised. It would take about one week and that no one is coming out alive.” The brief reads, “The secondary plan was to storm the Capitol building in Lansing when Congress was in session. They would then lock the entrances/exits to the structure. They would then set the building on fire.” As of the time of this writing, no national media outlet has reported these details, and the Democratic Party has maintained total silence beyond the state attorney general herself. According to prosecutors, the conspirators also planned to research the residential addresses of a number of unnamed political figures and execute them at their homes. Officials also released additional details of the military training conducted by the plotters, who wrote a schedule for one training session held in Wisconsin on June 14 on the property of a leading member of the fascist Oath Keepers organization there. According to the schedule, the plotters planned to address “basic fundamentals for the new members,” “driver down situation,” “taking a (possible) hostile vehicle over,” “planned ambushes,” “L shape ambush” and “when is the right time to screen for a medic?” The Wolverine Watchmen internally described themselves as a Boogaloo group. According to a private Facebook page used by the group, their purpose was “to network and assemble and recruit like-minded individuals.” They used anti-lockdown demonstrations sponsored by Republican state legislators and promoted by Trump to discuss their plans and recruit new forces. The Attorney General’s office made these arguments in order to oppose a bond request by Pete Musico, the cofounder of the Wolverine Militia. But after reviewing this evidence, Michael Klaeren granted bond at an estimated $10,000, allowing Musico to walk out of jail. Klaeren had previously reduced Musico’s bond from $10 million.

 Business groups breathe sigh of relief over prospect of divided government - Lobbying firms are telling their clients that two more years of divided government is the best-case scenario and most likely outcome of the 2020 elections. Business groups had been bracing for a blue sweep that carried with it the risk of progressive policies and ramped-up regulations. Instead, the prospect of a split Congress and the gridlock that comes with it is being welcomed by many clients. “Typically, my clients are happier when there’s a divided government. It’s a little bit more stable and they can plan better for the long-term, despite things taking longer to cross the finish line,” said Amy Smith, a policy adviser at Arnold & Porter. Loren Monroe, a principal at BGR, said companies often prefer the certainty provided by a slower legislative process, particularly when there are familiar faces in leadership posts. “More than anything, the business community craves predictability, so there is some relief when anticipating a new president who has a governing track record, a known Senate leadership on both sides of the aisle, and a House leadership that they’ve worked with over the last couple of years,” Monroe said. President Trump enjoyed unified government during the first half of his term, but without a slew of major legislative victories to accompany it beyond tax cuts and criminal justice reform. The subsequent two years have often been defined by gridlock on issues like COVID-19 relief and police reform. But lobbyists are hopeful things will work differently under President-elect Joe Biden, who spent decades in the Senate and facilitated deals with congressional Republicans when he was vice president. Trade groups are optimistic that a Biden presidency, combined with a Republican-controlled Senate and Democrat-led House could open the door for moderate pro-business policies. One Republican lobbyist called divided government “very good” for business. “It means the most dramatic and radical permutations of a Democratic sweep are off the table. On a process basis, you’re not going to move towards eliminating the filibuster, adding votes to the Supreme Court, or adding new states to the union to solidify and make permanent the Democrat majorities in Congress,” the GOP lobbyist said.

With Biden declared winner, what’s next for banks?  - — Democrat Joe Biden’s narrow victory in the presidential election shifts the balance of power in the nation’s capital over key banking policies.Following an Election Day in which there was no outcome and the uncertainty continued through most of the week, Biden was declared the winner over President Donald Trump after major news networks projected he had won the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. As of Saturday morning, Biden was projected to have 273 electoral votes to 214 for Trump.Biden’s defeat of the incumbent after a bruising 2020 presidential campaign will give the incoming administration substantial power to appoint new financial regulators, shape policies such as the future of housing finance and Community Reinvestment Act reform, and possibly advance progressive banking ideas that have failed to gain traction under a Republican administration. However, the president-elect may have to contend with a divided Congress, as Democrats still have a steep climb to seize enough seats in the Senate to take control with some key races still to be decided.  It remains to be seen what moves the Trump administration might make with two and a half months remaining in power. Key leadership posts at the regulatory agencies are somewhat uncertain, and legislative priorities such as marijuana banking and anti-money-laundering reform are still pending in Congress. Here are key banking policy areas that could be upended as a result of Biden’s victory.

• The incoming Biden administration could move swiftly to appoint a new director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau focused on helping vulnerable consumers who are struggling financially during the pandemic.CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger is likely to submit her resignation or be fired, according to experts, given that the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that the bureau’s director can be fired by the president without cause. In that case, the next director, who may serve on an interim basis until a permanent director is confirmed by Congress, would move immediately to address pandemic-related issues. For example, mortgage servicers, auto lenders and debt collectors could be in the spotlight for how they implement forbearance policies. The three credit bureaus could also come under the microscope.
• The Biden administration’s ability to shape the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac depends on the outcome of a Supreme Court case challenging the single-director structure of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. If the high court rules the same way it did in a case challenging the same structure at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Biden would be able to fire current FHFA Director Mark Calabria and replace him with someone new, although a new FHFA leader may need the support of Senate Republicans. Biden could potentially attempt to fire Calabria before the court rules by citing CFPB case as precedent. But the Biden team’s priorities for reforming the housing finance system are still unclear. It’s possible the new administration could align itself with various Capitol Hill proposals touted by Democrats like Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, that envision spinning out Fannie and Freddie into a government utility. Biden may also view Fannie and Freddie as a tool to bolster affordable housing and homeownership. If the new president-elect does not replace Calabria, the new administration will still wield significant power over the government-sponsored enterprises by virtue of the Treasury Department.

What kind of regulator can Biden get past a GOP Senate? -— Progressive Democrats had hoped a Joe Biden presidency would mean the selection of tough regulators to revive aggressive enforcement efforts and unwind Trump deregulation. But the tight margin in the Senate could complicate the appointment process. Even though Biden was declared the winner of the presidential race Saturday, Republicans are close to maintaining control of the Senate. If they hold on, it would give GOP leaders the final say on approving the incoming president’s nominees for Treasury secretary and the financial regulators. As a result, observers say, Biden would likely choose more moderate leaders for the Treasury Department and the regulators, giving comfort to bankers who had feared the potential of a “blue wave” election. He may also seek to avoid the Senate confirmation process altogether, some said, by naming interim regulatory chiefs under federal rules for acting appointments. “The basic outcome is that it means the nominees will tend to be more moderate,” said J.W. Verret, an assistant professor of law at George Mason University and a former GOP congressional staffer. After Biden’s election, the guessing game has already begun on who will be his pick as Treasury secretary. Some have mentioned Federal Reserve Board Gov. Lael Brainard as a possible candidate. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a leader of the progressive left who had challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination, has reportedly pitched herself as a pick for Treasury. Meanwhile, Biden could have a vacancy to fill atop the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and many expect him to fire Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger thanks to a Supreme Court case empowering presidents to replace CFPB chiefs at will. On Monday, Bloomberg News reported that the Biden transition team had tapped Gary Gensler, an alum of Goldman Sachs and Treasury who formerly ran the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the Obama administration, along with KeyBank executive Don Graves to vet financial regulatory appointments. Observers said they expect a heavier consumer focus at the financial regulators under a Biden administration even with relatively moderate nominees. “My gut feeling … is that you will see a change of tone at the top, a significant change of tone,” said Camden Fine, president and CEO of Calvert Advisors and former head of the Independent Community Bankers of America. “Biden will appoint persons who will enact what I would just in general terms call the Democratic philosophy, which is more consumer protection, tougher regulation for Wall Street, tougher capital regulations particularly for the too-big-to-fail banks, all of those kind of things.”

 Biden transition teams add credit union CEO and former NCUA staffer -- Two long-time credit union advocates have been named to positions on President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team.Bill Bynum, president and CEO of Hope Federal Credit Union in Jackson, Miss., was appointed to the Biden-Harris agency review team for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Bynum has long been an advocate for racial equity and social justice, and has been recognized with awards from the African-American Credit Union Coalition, Inclusiv and others. “Congratulations to Bill Bynum for being named to the Biden-Harris Agency Review Team,” Jim Nussle, president and CEO of the Credit Union National Association, said in a press release on Wednesday. “We appreciate him bringing the credit union perspective on the CFPB to the incoming administration. The work Bill and Hope FCU have done to promote financial well-being and to advance the interests of his local community, especially in response to the pandemic, is a great example of the credit union difference in action.” Gail Laster, who served as director of the National Credit Union Administration’s Office of Consumer Financial Protection and Access from 2012 to 2017, has also been named to a transition review team for the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Laster was HUD general counsel from 1997 to 2001. Biden has moved forward with transition work, including these announcements, despite President Trump's refusal to concede or acknowledge the election's result. Credit union trade groups and others, however, have congratulated Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris on their win in the hope of putting industry priorities at the forefront.

 NCUA's Hood to Senate panel- Extend CARES Act provisions for credit unions - Rodney Hood, chairman of the National Credit Union Administration, on Tuesday called on lawmakers to extend changes to the agency’s Central Liquidity Facility beyond year-end in order to ensure credit unions continue to have ample liquidity to serve members during the pandemic. Hood’s remarks came during financial regulators’ remote testimony before members of the Senate Banking Committee. He was joined by Randal Quarles, vice chairman of supervision at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Jelena McWilliams, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.; and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks. Many in the credit union industry have called for Congress to extend changes to the CLF made as part of the CARES Act earlier this year or make them permanent. About 80% of the industry now has access to additional liquidity through the CLF, Hood said. In prepared remarks, he called the program’s growth and expanded borrowing authority “a testament to our nation’s credit unions coming together in a time of crisis to strengthen the national system of cooperative credit.” However those changes will sunset on Dec. 31 without additional legislative action. “I respectfully request that these changes be extended for the pandemic’s duration so the credit union system and NCUA can respond effectively should the need for emergency liquidity arise,” Hood told the Senate panel. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., asked whether credit unions and other lenders were at risk of failure due to commercial customers struggling to pay back loans in a timely fashion. Hood downplayed those concerns and reiterated the industry’s strong capital position, but said a CLF extension could mitigate some risks. “We do believe we have the tools to keep the credit union system safe and sound,” Hood said. “If there’s one ask I would have, it would be working with you and your committee to extend the CLF…While we have solid liquidity now [it] would be nice to know we have that extension beyond Dec. 31 of this year.” Later in the hearing, however, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., said that with the economy recovering faster than expected, some programs that helped get the nation back on track may be able to be terminated.

GOP senators push regulatory relief for PPP banks— Republican senators pressed regulators Tuesday to ensure that banks' participation in federal coronavirus relief programs don’t create new regulatory burdens. The concerns, which drew a sympathetic response from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randal Quarles and acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks, involve smaller banks that have swollen balance sheets as a result of their participation in the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program. “It is important that banks and credit unions are not inadvertently disincentivized from continuing to play a key role in the economic recovery or participate in future efforts,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, said during a hearing. “I urge each of you to continue using your discretion to alleviate the regulatory burdens associated with a variety of asset-based regulatory thresholds on those banks and credit unions temporarily experiencing growth from participation in recovery-oriented programs.” In addition to representantives from the Fed and the OCC, the hearing featured testimony by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams and National Credit Union Administration Chairman Rodney Hood. Community bankers have been pressing Congress and regulators to exclude PPP loans from their asset-size calculations out of concern that the loans are growing their balance sheets and triggering new exposure to certain regulations. Numerous banks that participated in the PPP have crossed the $10 billion asset threshold, which would typically result in supervision by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, pricing limits on debit interchange fees and compliance with the Volcker Rule's ban on proprietary trading, among other regulatory requirements. “[Banks] really stepped up and responded in this crisis by providing credit that swelled their balance sheets and that has triggered, for those especially who have crossed the $10 billion threshold, a number of costly regulatory provisions, one of the most problematic of which is the government-mandated price fixings of the interchange fees,” said Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. “I would just urge you to consider ways in which you might ensure that we don’t punish banks that really did exactly what their communities needed when they needed it.”

  Why PPP fraud hit fintechs harder than banks At first blush, the data on fraud for the Paycheck Protection Program looks bad for fintechs.  According to the Project on Government Oversight, an independent watchdog, the Justice Department has brought charges against at least 82 individuals in 56 cases for Paycheck Protection Program. Lenders approved 97 loans related to these fraud cases, and nearly half of those were made by fintechs and banks working closely with fintech companies. So does this mean fintechs were easier targets than banks? In some ways, perhaps. Banks often have historical data on borrowers that fintechs don’t, so it’s reasonable to believe that fraudsters would see fintechs as easier marks. Confirming a borrower’s identity can also be more challenging for fintechs. Then again, the data could suggest that fintechs are better at catching and reporting fraud than banks are and that banks, at least at the outset of the PPP rollout, prioritized lending to existing customers. Here are some reasons why fraud appeared to be more prevalent at fintechs and what can be done to curtail online fraud in the future. At the heart of the problem of online loan fraud, in the PPP program and anywhere else, is the challenge of proving digital identities. This was particularly difficult for fintechs. The criminal rings that used fake identities to apply for loans were automatically denied by the large banks that focused on their existing customers. They turned to fintechs that were approving loans on their digital platforms in as little as an hour. Banks may be better at performing due diligence.  “Banks have been doing this since the beginning of time,” said David O’Connell, senior analyst at Aite Group. “Online lenders have been doing cash flow analysis since 2011. There's a shortage of institutional historical knowledge that makes them vulnerable.” Bill Phelan, senior vice president of PayNet, an Equifax company, said it’s critical for lenders to cross-reference loan application data points against business records, public records and financial records. “If you can cross-reference those three, it becomes very hard to game the system and commit fraud,” he said. But banks may be slower in spotting fraud once it occurs. In research Aite Group conducted recently on small-business loan fraud, bankers admitted they’re not good at detecting fraud.Aite asked, “When you think about all of the losses you've likely suffered as a result of small- and medium-size business fraud, what percentage are accurately identified as fraud losses?” The average answer from bank executive respondents was 48%.“That means they’re missing 52%,” O’Connell observed. “It could be that fintechs have better data and better reporting. And they're more likely to flag something as fraud rather than a credit loss.” When Aite asked bankers what percentage of small- and medium-size business fraud losses they not only identified, but accurately accounted for as fraud losses rather than credit losses, the answer was 37%. “So we're looking at 63% that don't get accounted for,” O’Connell said. “It could be that the banks’ blind spot is pretty big.” Fintechs, on the other hand, say that every time there's an instance of confirmed or suspected fraud, they identify and submit it to the Small Business Administration’s Office of the Inspector General very quickly.

 Nonbank sector needs reform to combat risk to financial stability- Fed— Temporary policy responses from Congress and the Federal Reserve have mitigated financial stability risks resulting from the pandemic, but permanent fixes may be needed in some areas to counter potential long-term shocks, the Fed said Monday. In its semiannual Financial Stability Report, the Fed said that short-term funding markets have stabilized considerably since March when the reality of the pandemic first set in for investors. But that stability has much to do with the central bank’s emergency lending facilities, most of which are set to sunset at the end of this year, the report said. “Emergency measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve with the support of the Treasury have temporarily lowered the risk of adverse events associated with vulnerabilities in the nonbank sector in the near term, but remaining vulnerabilities call for structural fixes in the longer term,” the Fed’s report said. The Fed and the Treasury Department have not yet said if they plan to extend their loan facilities created under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act past Dec. 31. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who chairs the central bank’s committee on financial stability, agreed in a statement that the coronavirus pandemic has made clearer the need for more permanent reforms, including in the “critically important” Treasury market, she said. “The resurgence of fragility and funding stress in the same nonbank financial sectors in the COVID-19 crisis and the Global Financial Crisis highlights the importance of a renewed commitment to financial reform,” Brainard said in a statement. The leverage at nonbanks, including hedge funds and life insurance companies, remains high and could lead to more acute problems in the event of either funding shortages or sharp drops in asset prices, the Fed added. Money market funds and mutual funds are particularly vulnerable to funding strains. "While government support has lowered the risk of adverse events associated with vulnerabilities in the nonbank sector, this sector would be vulnerable to funding risk should the government support be withdrawn," the Fed said. However, unlike at nonbanks, bank funding risk remains low, the Fed’s report said, given that financial institutions have benefited from a surge in deposits in 2020 and that banks are holding on to large amounts of high-quality liquid assets. Additionally, in the third quarter, the common equity Tier 1 capital at banks slightly rose above pre-pandemic levels, the Fed said, based on preliminary earnings data, giving the Fed greater confidence about the resilience of U.S. banks. But the Fed warned that loan delinquencies could worsen as the pandemic continues. “As many households continue to struggle, loan defaults may rise, leading to material losses,” the Fed said. “So far, strains in the business and household sectors have been mitigated by significant government lending and relief programs and by low interest rates. That said, some households and businesses have been substantially more affected to date than others, suggesting that the sources of vulnerability in these sectors are unevenly distributed.”

Senator Sherrod Brown Calls for Breaking Up the Wall Street Banks; Elizabeth Warren Tells Fed: “I Don’t Believe You’re Doing Your Job” - Pam Martens  The U.S. Senate Banking Committee held a virtual hearing yesterday that was benignly titled “Oversight of Financial Regulators.” It would be an understatement to say that there was nothing benign about the hearing. Fireworks went off throughout the hearing as Democratic Senators let it be known that they expected the crony relationship between the Fed and the Wall Street banks to be challenged by the incoming Biden administration. Senator Sherrod Brown set the tone for the hearing with his opening remarks, telling the panel of Trump era federal banking regulators the following:  “We can get small businesses back on their feet. We can lift up the Black and brown communities that have been hit the hardest by this pandemic. We can keep people in their homes, make those homes more affordable, and bring down people’s energy bills. We can lead the world in the fight against climate change and seize every opportunity to create good-paying jobs. We can free people from the stress of debt collectors and the downward spiral of payday lenders.“And we can reorient our economy from wealth to work. To do all of that, we have to take on Wall Street power.Later in his remarks, Brown said this:  “We have to break up the biggest banks, and give that power to everyone else who has been denied a voice in our economy… “When work has dignity, we have a strong, growing middle class, and everyone – everyone – can reach it. Making that vision possible is the job of the Banking and Housing Committee. When it came time to question the various federal regulators, Brown told the group that they could have done so much to improve the lives of average Americans but had, instead, “finalized the Wall Street wish list.” Brown then critiqued the failings of each of the regulators, giving the harshest tongue-lashing to Brian Brooks, the Acting Comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Brown told Brooks the following: “One West, the bank that you and [Treasury] Secretary Mnuchin and Joseph Otting [former head of the OCC in the Trump administration] worked at, was known as a foreclosure machine. It makes no sense that the outgoing President handed the wheels of the economy to so many people who had a hand in crashing it in 2008. “Even though you’re running the OCC without the approval of the Senate, you’ve made sweeping changes to regulation to benefit the same corporations you used to lobby for. It’s exactly this kind of self-dealing that’s eroded so many Americans’ trust in their government and the economy. And last week, 80 million American voters rejected that thinking.” […] Clearly, by the time it was Senator Elizabeth Warren’s turn to question the panel of witnesses, she was steamed up over the stonewalling. Warren told Quarles that banks are now reporting that they anticipate higher loan default rates. Warren chastised Quarles for “allowing the big banks to continue to shovel billions of dollars out the door in dividends. Money that could be used to survive an historic downturn. You could stop this outflow of money right now.”

SEC charges ex-Wells Fargo execs with misleading investors - The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday accused two former top Wells Fargo executives of misleading investors about a sales metric that was exposed as unreliable after bank employees were found to have opened fake accounts for customers in order to meet sales goals. Former CEO John Stumpf agreed to pay a $2.5 million penalty in order to settle the civil charges. Onetime community banking head Carrie Tolstedt did not agree to a settlement, and she now faces an SEC civil lawsuit that alleges she committed fraud. The cases involve statements that the former executives made about Wells Fargo’s cross-sell ratio, which the San Francisco bank regularly cited as evidence of its sales prowess, and was long the envy of the banking industry. Wells stopped reporting the cross-sell ratio in early 2017 after the fake-accounts scandal exploded into view. The SEC alleges that Tolstedt publicly endorsed the cross-sell ratio as a means of measuring the bank’s financial success, even though she knew about numerous flaws. Not only was the cross-sell ratio inflated by unauthorized accounts, it also included accounts that customers neither wanted nor used, according to the SEC. “Rather than reveal to investors the extent to which the inclusion of unused, unneeded and unauthorized accounts in the cross-sell metric had inflated the reported number, Tolstedt continued to falsely claim that Wells Fargo’s cross-sell strategy was to sell products that customers valued and used,” the complaint states. The SEC also contends that Tolstedt profited from stock sales made around the time of her alleged misconduct, pointing to sales of Wells Fargo shares for more than $11.8 million in November 2014. In January 2016, Tolstedt made a presentation to Stumpf and then-Chief Operating Officer Tim Sloan that recommended the bank start reporting a new metric that it would call “active cross-sell,” according to the SEC. The recommendation was allegedly prompted by questions that Stumpf had raised about the fact that unused accounts were counted in the cross-sell ratio. The revised ratio would only count products that customers actively used. The presentation showed that while the cross-sell ratio using the traditional methodology was 6.13 during the third quarter of 2015, the active cross-sell ratio was 5.17, the SEC stated. While Wells executives discussed the possibility of using the active cross-sell ratio at the bank’s Investor Day in 2016, that idea was eventually scrapped, according to the SEC. Stumpf, who resigned as CEO later in 2016, was required to certify the accuracy of Wells Fargo’s filings with the SEC. The agency alleges that he learned of facts that put him, or should have put him, on notice about material inaccuracies in the cross-sell ratio in 2015 and 2016. Stumpf, 66, neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing as part of the settlement. His attorney did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Loss provisions, low interest rates could threaten profits, OCC says — Banks are grappling with a host of looming risks as the economy navigates the continuing pandemic, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Monday. An OCC report noted credit, strategic, operational and compliance risks to the industry, which has largely avoided a direct hit from COVID-19 and instead aided businesses affected by the virus. The national bank regulator reported that while the overall health of the banking sector remains stable, a murky credit outlook will compound banks’ profit struggles amid a near-zero interest rate environment. “Banks remain in strong financial condition,” the OCC wrote in its most recent Semiannual Risk Perspective, “but profitability is stressed due to low interest rates and increasing levels of provisions for problem loans.” The OCC reported that credit risk is increasing in commercial, retail and mortgage lending even as actual losses “have yet to fully materialize across many segments of the banking industry.” The combination of consumer relief programs and “unprecedented stimulus efforts” under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act “is likely masking potential losses within the financial services industry,” the OCC said. In commercial lending, the OCC highlighted the struggles of specific industries, such as in commercial real estate, oil and gas, and in the hospitality sector. But the OCC also said “challenges are present in most sectors.” The OCC also warned that the low interest rate environment will continue to weigh heavily on bank profitability. With net interest margins at their lowest level in 30 years and a 350% year-over-year increase in loan-loss provisions, net income among national banks in the first six months of the year dropped by more than 77% compared to a year earlier. The OCC sees continued operational and compliance risks due to the prolonged reliance on telework among bankers and their customers. Of particular concern is cybersecurity. “The financial sector continues to see an increase in ransomware attacks with cyber actors using phishing emails as the main attack vector,” the OCC wrote.

Banks tighten standards on consumer, commercial loans - With the pandemic continuing to crimp the U.S. economy, banks tightened their underwriting standards on consumer and commercial loans during the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey on bank lending practices. Banks that participated in the Fed’s quarterly senior loan officer survey raised the bar for approving commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, residential mortgages, credit card loans and car loans. The survey findings, released Monday, marked the continuation of a trend that began during the first quarter of 2020, when many banks tightened their lending standards in response to worsening economic conditions. During the third quarter, banks cited the relatively poor economic outlook, various industry-specific problems and a reduced risk tolerance in explaining their decisions to further tighten loan standards since the end of the second quarter. Some banks also pointed to less aggressive competition from other lenders or a deterioration in their own current or expected capital position. For credit cards and auto loans, the tighter standards were often manifested in higher minimum credit score requirements. In commercial lending, banks often raised their collateralization requirements, the premiums they charged on riskier loans and their use of interest rate floors. The survey’s findings on loan demand suggest that U.S. businesses and consumers were on divergent paths at the end of the third quarter, with consumers having benefited from government stimulus payments, even as many businesses continued to struggle. Demand for credit card loans, auto loans and most categories of residential real estate loans rose in the third quarter. But borrower demand was weaker for commercial and industrial loans, as well as for various kinds of commercial real estate credit, including construction loans and multifamily housing loans. At the end of the third quarter, the Fed asked participating banks a series of special questions about their use of forbearance, which has frequently been used to prevent defaults during the pandemic. The results varied substantially by loan category. About 14% of banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their construction loans were in forbearance. But approximately half of all participating banks said the same about loans secured by income-producing commercial real estate. For banks that offered forbearance on commercial real estate loans, that leniency most frequently took the form of either a payment deferral or covenant relief. On the consumer side, nearly four out of 10 banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their residential real estate loans were in forbearance. For credit card loans, about 9% said the same. Fifteen percent of banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their auto loans were in forbearance.

CFPB sets stage for long fight on data-sharing rule - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has spent significant time on long-running policy battles — like regulating payday lenders and proper mortgage underwriting — but analysts predict a new rulemaking still in its early phase could soon dominate the agenda. In seeking to write a rule around how much control consumers have over their own financial data, the agency is tackling one of the thorniest issues affecting banks, fintechs and data aggregators. Unlike other regulations affecting single industries, the consumer data rule could be all-encompassing. And the agency is embarking on the project ahead of an expected change of leadership. Many observers say it could be one of the most consequential rulemakings under the incoming Joe Biden administration. “The CFPB is looking at this as touching every market they cover,” said John Pitts, policy lead at Plaid, a San Francisco data aggregator, and a former deputy assistant director of intergovernmental affairs at the CFPB. The bureau released an advance notice of proposed rulemaking last month seeking comment on more than 100 questions related to the sharing of consumer data, potential risks to consumers and how data is accessed by third parties. Broadly speaking, fintechs and aggregators want access to a consumer's bank account data through screen scraping or application programming interfaces to help provide a service, and advocates of consumer access say the bank has to abide. “This is not a partisan issue, this is an issue where a greater degree of choice and consumer control has the ability to change financial services in a way that benefits consumers,”  But some banks and others worry about consumers giving third parties too much control, the potential for security and privacy breaches, and a bank's proprietary information about fees and other pricing getting released in the exchange.  “The absence of meaningful ways to view, modify, or revoke consent is problematic, and limits consumers’ ability to control their data,” Murphy wrote in a letter to CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger in February. “Consumers’ ability to understand the terms of their consent is particularly hampered by some data aggregators’ practice of using banks’ branding to make it appear as if the consumer is on their bank’s website. This practice should be discontinued." The CFPB's rulemaking is intended to implement section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act, which gave consumers the right to access their own bank account and transaction data in a usable electronic format.

Push to keep tabs on employees spurs union of monitoring firms -- Two companies that assist employees in monitoring workplace communications for signs of risky behavior are joining forces. Smarsh, which allows clients to archive communications between employees, is acquiring Digital Reasoning, the two companies said Tuesday. The latter applies artificial intelligence to monitoring communications for evidence of workplace harassment, compliance issues and other red flags. The purchase price was not disclosed. The merger is a reflection of the fact that employers are increasingly seeking surveillance options to monitor their many employees who are working from home. “If you look over the past few years, even pre-COVID, the amount of data generated in the form of electronic communication has been growing exponentially,” said Brian Cramer, Smarsh's CEO. “You've seen Slack, Zoom, Microsoft Teams and mobile platforms growing substantially. That has all created this perfect storm of much more data than previously. Regulations require that financial services firms not only capture and archive that content in a separate immutable repository, but it also requires them to supervise and monitor the communications of active market participants.” Smarsh has about 6,500 customers, many of them banks, including nine out of the top 10 U.S. banks, according to Cramer. They use Smarsh’s technology to monitor and store Zoom, Google Meet and Microsoft Teams meetings, as well as emails, instant messages, phone calls and other communications. Smarsh's software can follow a conversation between two people as it jumps from text message to email to Microsoft Teams to a phone call. Digital Reasoning also has financial institution customers, who use it for things like finding signs of rate-rigging among traders. The software finds behavior that correlates with keeping secrets, spreading rumors, market manipulation and other forms of suspicious behavior. The company's investors include Barclays, BNP Paribas, Nasdaq, Macquarie Group and Standard Chartered, which will continue to support the business following this combination. Digital Reasoning has had customers ask for help in monitoring the escalated use of Zoom meetings and instant messages during the past six months. “It is perfect timing to bring these two things together,” said Tim Estes, CEO of Digital Reasoning. “Remote work has led to an immense amount of new volume that is right now, essentially unmonitored. It's the Wild West, and it's predictable that that's going to turn into a whole bunch of issues and scandals in the next year or so after we get past this grace period of all being in shock from it. There's a limited window for banks to catch up. That's why Brian and I wanted to bring this together: We know we can deliver this fast. We can deliver in months to a global bank what might take them years to put together as a Frankenstein.” Banks are most interested in these technologies to find regulatory risks and general corporate risks, like possible bullying or harassment, Estes said. Smarsh’s most progressive customers, Cramer said, care about the reputation of their brands and their bank. “They're tired of being surprised by something that was said or activity shown in communications that reflect poorly on the values of the bank, whether it's discrimination, harassment or other areas,” Cramer said.

Deutsche Bank Proposes A 5% Work From Home Privilege Tax - At a time when the Fed is already monetizing the entire US budget deficit thanks to helicopter money, sparking conversations about the utility of taxation, and when a Biden administration is set to at least try and roll back most of the Trump tax cuts, the last thing the population wants to hear about is even more taxes.Yet in a "modest proposal" from Deutsche Bank, the bank argues that in a time of pervasive covid shutdowns, "those who can work from home (WFH) receive direct and indirect financial benefits and they should be taxed in order to smooth the transition process for those who have been suddenly displaced."In other words, the argument goes that working from an office is somehow punitive, and since WFH during the pandemic leads to "many benefits" as a resulting "disconnecting themselves from face-to-face society" a 5% tax for each WFH day "would leave the average person no worse off than if they worked in the office." The bank calculates that such a tax could raise $49bn per year in the US, €20bn in Germany, and £7bn in the UK. "That can fund subsidies for the lowest-paid workers who usually cannot work from home."In the report written by DB strategist Like Tumpleman, he argues that the popularity of WFH was growing even before the pandemic: "between 2005 and 2018, internet technology fuelled a 173 per cent increase in the number of Americans who regularly worked from home. It is true that the overall proportion of people working from home before the pandemic was still small, at 5.4 per cent based on census data, but the growth was still way ahead of the growth in the overall workforce."Naturally, the covid shutdowns have turbocharged that growth, and as a result the proportion of Americans who worked from home increased ten-fold to 56% during the pandemic. Many of these people will continue to work remotely for some time. Indeed, two-thirds of organizations say that at least three-quarters of their staff can work from home effectively, according to S&P Global Markets. Meanwhile, a DB survey shows that, after the pandemic has passed, more than half of people who tried out WFH want to continue it permanently for between two and three days a week. This sudden shift to WFH means that, for the first time in history, "a big chunk of people have disconnected themselves from the face-to-face world yet are still leading a full economic life" as if that is somehow a bad thing.

 Citi details risk system triage  - Citigroup says it’s crafting a deeply detailed plan to overhaul its risk management and internal controls program that will not only address gaps in the system, but try to figure out how those gaps got there.  In her first public appearance as chief administrative officer, Karen Peetz said Tuesday there’s “no question” Citi “fell short” in delivering in the area of risk and controls, so it is taking a wide view of the program and the deficiencies identified by federal regulators to ensure lasting change.   “We have been given the latitude to truly take a step back in answering the consent order requirements to say, ‘What is our end state [and] how will we construct this to be an end-to-end solution instead of perhaps looking at something in too narrow of a fashion?’ ” Peetz said during the second day of Bank of America’s Future of Financials 2020 virtual conference. “As a result, we’re going to be looking at root causes, what caused us to not be able to close some of these gaps in the past in a very positive way," she said. "We believe we can actually leapfrog to a future state that’s going to be a lot more resilient than it would be if we just kind of kept going along, business as usual.”  The $2.2 trillion-asset company, which has struggled with risk management and internal controls issues in the past, drew the attention of regulators once again when it accidentally paid $900 million in August to creditors of the cosmetics company Revlon. Executives have blamed the mistake on human error. Last month, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hit Citigroup with enforcement actions and a $400 million civil money penalty for failing to correct long-standing risk-related problems. Peetz, who was president of Bank of New York Mellon for three years starting in 2013, came out of retirement in June to take the newly created chief administrative officer role at Citigroup. A onetime commercial banker at JPMorgan Chase, Peetz is also a former member of the Wells Fargo board who chaired its risk committee at the height of Well’s phony-accounts scandal.  On Tuesday, she called her new job a “coordination role” that’s focused on improving engagement with regulators and leading risk and control changes across the company. She said her first assignment was to conduct a “listening tour” to meet with the members of the executive management team, every member of Citi’s board and its major regulators.  “I asked each of them the same two questions: ‘How did we get here? Why are we at this place?’ and then ‘What should we do about it?’” Peetz said. “And I would say that the ‘How did we get here?’ [question] had two components. There was a bit of a cultural component, which we're going to need to very much break down some of the silos that we had … [and] from a process perspective we often were solving smaller problems versus looking at the total picture.” Peetz’s comments come one week after Citigroup said Chief Risk Officer Brad Hu would step down at the end of the year. A search for Hu’s replacement is underway, the company said.

JPMorgan Chase Is Under a New Federal Investigation, One Month After Getting Slapped with Its 4th and 5th Criminal Felony Count - Pam Martens -   The 10-Q filed by the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, on November 2 carried a very disturbing paragraph that had not appeared in the 10-Q the bank filed on August 3. The paragraph reads as follows: “JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. has been advised by one of its U.S. regulators of a potential civil money penalty action against the Bank related to historical deficiencies in internal controls and internal audit over certain advisory and other activities. The Bank already has controls in place to address the deficiencies related to the proposed penalty. The Firm is currently engaged in resolution discussions with the U.S. regulator. There is no assurance that such discussions will result in resolution.”   Why is this paragraph so disturbing? First of all, the words “deficiencies” and “audit” are not two words that one wants to read in the same sentence pertaining to any Wall Street bank. But they are particularly frightening when it comes to the largest bank in the United States that has racked up an unprecedented five criminal felony counts – to which it admitted guilt – in the past six years. That’s five more felony counts than the bank racked up in the prior 100 years of its existence.Equally unprecedented, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase has kept Jamie Dimon as its Chairman and CEO, despite the fact that he has sat at the helm of the bank during this unprecedented and relentless crime wave.There is also the disturbing fact that JPMorgan Chase’s three-year probation for its role in rigging the foreign exchange market just ended in January of this year. Nine months later, on September 29, it gets slapped with two new felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice for rigging the precious metals and U.S. Treasury market and is put on another three-year probation.And now, just a little more than a month later, we are learning that there is yet another federal probe of this bank in the works.This is known as a recidivist lawbreaker. A real Justice Department doesn’t keep doling out probation periods to recidivist lawbreakers. It throws them in the pokey and demands changes in the management and Board of JPMorgan Chase. But William Barr’s Justice Department did the exact opposite of what a rational person would have expected on September 29 when it announced JPMorgan Chase’s fourth and fifth felony count in a six-year span. Instead of holding its typical press conference to announce such weighty charges, the Justice Department stunned Wall Street watchers by making the announcement on the same day that all eyes were on the presidential debate that night and doing it with just a press release – no press conference.  That decision might have come from the fact that prosecutors were charging the bank with “tens of thousands of instances of unlawful trading in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium…as well as thousands of instances of unlawful trading in U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds…” but the Justice Department had decided to condense what could have been tens of thousands of counts into just two felony counts. If you don’t hold a press conference, reporters can’t ask those picky questions as to why the Justice Department was letting this serial lawbreaker off so easily.

  JPMorgan no longer stands alone as most important bank - Global financial regulators said JPMorgan Chase was no longer the world’s most systemically important bank, recommending a lower capital burden for the firm and several of its rivals. JPMorgan dropped one rung on the Financial Stability Board’s annual rankings Wednesday to sit alongside Citigroup and HSBC Holdings as one of the world’s three most important banks. JPMorgan, atop the FSB’s list since 2017, declined to comment on the change, which was based on data from the end of last year. Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs Group were also found to pose lower risks to the financial system and lowered one level. China Construction Bank, meanwhile, increased one level in this year’s assessment of 30 firms. The latest list uses information from before the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced lenders to set aside tens of billions of dollars to cover potential credit losses, while authorities eased or delayed rules to help the industry respond. The ratings are basedon a bank’s size, scope of cross-border business and connections to other firms, which are used to assess the risk of financial contagion. JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank, has benefited from a surge in revenue from stock and bond trading desks in the midst of the pandemic, which contributed to a surprise increase in third-quarter earnings. Its shares, which plunged with other bank stocks in March, recently rebounded but have still fallen 16% so far this year. Banks included in the Basel-based FSB’s list face more stringent capital demands and closer scrutiny of their risk management. The FSB panel, which recommends changes that national supervisors may implement, said shifts in the rankings reflect underlying changes in banks’ activity. The FSB includes representatives from authorities including the European Central Bank and Bank of England and is chaired by Randal Quarles, a vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

FDIC's brokered deposits rule may hurt some middlemen — As the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. tries to update the classification of brokered deposits, the agency’s longstanding practice of sanctioning certain deposit services through individual rulings is getting more attention. In the years since the FDIC created a brokered-deposit framework in the early '90s, the industry has relied on informal guidance and agency advisory opinions on how the rules apply to specific deposit-gathering businesses. Those rulings can determine whether deposits raised through a service are “brokered,” which are then subject to restrictions. While the industry has applauded the FDIC’s efforts to modernize the rules, many have raised concerns that the FDIC’s December 2019 proposal would not sufficiently address the ongoing status of past advisory opinions, meaning some services that had thought they were in the clear could soon be in limbo. “Fundamentally, they need to start with this: Here are the opinions we’re adopting, here are the opinions we’re throwing out, here’s what we’re modifying,” said Sara Kelsey, a former FDIC general counsel who is now in private practice. “Then, you can ask people to comment on the regulation. Then, people would understand what they’re really trying to do.” Yet some observers say the hazy standards for defining a “deposit broker” through inconsistent advisory opinions have allowed certain services to skirt the rules. They see the FDIC’s rulemaking as an opportunity to impose order. In a June comment letter on the FDIC’s proposal, Michael Erdman, a lawyer with Teeple Leonard & Erdman in Chicago, outlined concerns about companies including Kasasa, Bankrate.com and QwickRate.com. He argued the FDIC should consider risks posed by some companies that operate in a manner similar to modern deposit listing services. In certain cases, Erdman said, deposits raised through such listing services should be considered brokered, even if the listing service was previously approved by the FDIC through an advisory opinion.  Under the law, banks cannot accept brokered deposits if they are less than well capitalized. But the industry has long argued that the FDIC has used outdated standards to define such deposits, overlooking online banking models that shift emphasis away from branches. The proposed framework would narrow the definition of deposit brokers and create a formal process for businesses to apply for exemptions via the statute’s “primary purpose” clause. Under that clause, a company that places less than 25% of the funds it manages for customers at insured depository institutions can apply to receive an exemption. But businesses relying on advisory opinions to avoid being labeled a “deposit broker” remain in the dark about just how the new framework will treat that staff guidance.

 FDIC's McWilliams vows to finish her term— Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Jelena McWilliams told a House panel Thursday that she plans to remain in her position until her term expires in 2023. “You have my commitment that I will work with whoever is on my board. I will even ensure this with you, I intend to fulfill the remainder of my term,” McWilliams told the House Financial Services Committee at a Thursday virtual hearing. She appeared with Federal Reserve Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks, and National Credit Union Administration Chairman Rodney Hood. McWilliams was responding to Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., who asked whether the regulator appointed by President Trump was preparing for a change in administration when President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January. “We need to have a seamless move in some of these important areas, and of course you running the FDIC is one of those critically important institutions,” Cleaver said. “Are you preparing for transition in terms of being able to present the new administration with information that would allow for this seamless transition?” McWilliams said that the FDIC has taken the appropriate steps to prepare for the new administration and that she will work with whoever is nominated to sit alongside her on the FDIC board. "We have abided by all of the requirements of government agencies that are imposed on us and we are certainly engaged to the extent that that’s feasible and possible with planning for the new administration starting in January," McWilliams said. “Any transition to the new administration is going to be seamless. None of our critical functions are going to be affected.” McWilliams was sworn in at the FDIC in June 2018 to serve out a term expiring in mid-2023.

 BankThink: FSOC leaves mortgage markets uncertain - The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s recent comments on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s proposed capital rule for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reinforced aspects of the proposed rule but left market participants uncertain about key issues. For instance, the council’s endorsement of the FHFA’s use of banklike regulatory capital definitions and structure suggests that this approach will be retained in the final rule. The FSOC also observed that the capital “buffers” in the proposed risk-based framework should be risk-based, as they are in the bank framework (a point made by many market participants). However, elements of the FSOC’s statement raise questions for market participants trying to anticipate a post-conservatorship secondary mortgage market, should the incoming Biden administration’s FHFA go through with the GSEs’ exit from governmental control. Three stand out. First, market participants are concerned with the FHFA and FSOC’s intentions with credit risk transfer, a critical housing finance reform made in conservatorship. By selling credit risk to investors, CRT diversifies the sources of private capital and broadens the universe of investors that absorb credit losses.  Since FSOC’s duty is identifying and reducing systemic risk, FSOC should be a strong CRT proponent. Indeed, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly have supported CRT as an effective means to transfer risk from the GSEs. Surprisingly, the oversight council makes no mention of CRT in its formal statement. Surely this panel of regulators understands that the FHFA’s proposed rule would render CRT ineffective and that, without CRT, the market would revert to the previous concentration of risk in and opacity of pricing by the GSEs. The oversight council doesn’t address the FHFA’s reservations with CRT, as expressed in the proposed rule, where the FHFA notes CRT’s limitations compared to common equity.  The goal of both the FHFA and the FSOC should be prudent levels of both equity capital and credit risk transfer. This would enable the Enterprises to benefit from the unique loss absorbing and risk mitigating features of both while reducing the cost and increasing the efficiency of capital. In sum, CRT can reduce both systemic risk and the amount of common equity to be raised while expanding the investor base focused on mortgage credit risk. It should also lower the GSEs’ overall cost of capital, thereby lowering mortgage rates for homebuyers. Second, the FSOC’s statements on the leverage requirement sent mixed signals. Consistent with current bank capital policy, FSOC poses that the leverage requirement should be a “credible backstop” to the risk-based requirements. Yet the council also noted that the final leverage and risk-based requirements should not be “materially less than those contemplated by the proposed rule.” Finally, the FSOC notes that the risk-based capital charge for mortgage credit risk in the FHFA proposal is lower than banks face, creating an advantage for the GSEs that “could maintain significant concentration of risk with the enterprises.” This leads FSOC to “encourage FHFA and other regulatory agencies to coordinate and take other appropriate action …”

What Sheila Bair brings to table as chair of Fannie Mae - Sheila Bair, as head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. during the financial crisis, oversaw the resolution of more than 300 failed banks that went into receivership. Now, she’ll play a major role in tackling one of the last problems left undone from that era: getting the mortgage giant Fannie Mae out of federal conservatorship. Bair will become chair of Fannie’s board next week, slightly more than a year after joining the government-sponsored enterprise as a director. The choice was surprising given her past criticisms of the structure of Fannie and Freddie Mac as private companies that enjoyed an implied government backing — which became explicit when the Treasury rescued the companies at a price tag of more than $191 billion in 2008. She takes the job as the company’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has started the process of untethering Fannie and Freddie from government control. “She’s going to have a 360-degree perspective on the future of the GSEs that few other people could possibly bring,” said former acting FHFA Director Ed DeMarco, who once worked with Bair at the Treasury Department and now chairs the Housing Policy Council, an industry trade group. Fannie denied a request for an interview with Bair and declined to comment beyond the announcement last week of her new position. The FHFA also declined to comment. Bair joined Fannie’s board in August 2019, about four months after Mark Calabria was appointed to run the FHFA. In his first months on the job, Calabria and the Treasury announced an end to a controversial arrangement that prevented Fannie and Freddie from keeping their profits and swept that money into government coffers instead. Under the new arrangement, the companies are allowed to retain a portion of their earnings in preparation for finally exiting government control. But the details of what a new mortgage system will look like and how — or even when — the two companies will get there have not been ironed out. Bair’s seat at Fannie is a unique point of contact to work with FHFA on how to navigate the financial and regulatory challenges ahead. “Both Sheila and Director Calabria are independently minded,” DeMarco said. “But both, I expect, will be very direct and be constructive from both sides in terms of the discussions that will have to go on in order to chart whatever that future path looks like.”   While he was director of financial regulation studies at the conservative think tank Cato Institute, Calabria argued in a 2015 paper for borrowing a page out of the FDIC’s book to resolve the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie. He even cited Bair’s testimony and her work at the FDIC resolving failing banks and thrifts under a “virtually identical” authority that FHFA has in handling the GSEs.  The big question in housing policy circles is whether the Biden administration would take a new direction. Calabria’s tenure could be cut short as the Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether a president can replace the FHFA director. Calabria has indicated that many of his plans related to Fannie and Freddie’s conservatorship could take the remainder of his term, which expires in 2024. However, a new FHFA director could cease the effort.

Freddie Mac CEO David Brickman resigns, interim leader appointed - Freddie Mac’s CEO, David Brickman, quietly tendered his resignation earlier this week and will be officially stepping down Jan. 8, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday. Representatives from Freddie Mac offered no additional comment on the personnel change. Michael Hutchins, an executive vice president in the government-sponsored enterprise’s investments and capital markets division, has been named to replace him on an interim basis. Brickman, who has been with Freddie Mac for 21 years, was named as its CEO in 2018, after his predecessor, Don Layton, retired. Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae replaced their CEOs with multifamily executives amid a broader wave of political turnover at the housing-finance agencies that included Mark Calabria’s appointment as the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Hutchins has been in his current position since January 2015, and served as a senior vice president in the department before that. His Wall Street background could factor into discussions related to the GSEs' moving out of conservatorship, in line with a path the Trump administration had set for them. The Biden administration is said to be less likely to see that process through.

 FHA's capital buoyed by house price appreciation despite higher defaults — A key indicator of health for the Federal Housing Administration’s mutual mortgage insurance fund reached a high not seen since 2007, as strong house price appreciation more than offset economic harm done by the pandemic. The FHA said Friday in its annual actuarial report that the fund's capital reserve ratio increased to 6.10% in the 2020 fiscal year, up from 4.84% a year earlier. Meanwhile, the fund's economic net worth increased to $78.95 billion — more than double its value just two years earlier. The FHA is required by law to maintain a buffer of at least 2%. “Thanks to this administration’s focus on prudent capital management, FHA entered the pandemic with a strong capital position, which will help us weather the immediate impact of COVID-19,” FHA Commissioner Dana Wade said on a call with reporters. Generally, the FHA’s mortgage fund owes much of its success in 2020 to strong house price appreciation, which “eclipsed other negative economic developments,” Wade said, and added that the FHA’s modeling showed that a 1% decrease in house price appreciation would equate to a blow of 1.3% to the mortgage insurance fund. Still, the FHA’s portfolio was not completely immune to COVID-19. The agency’s portfolio of seriously delinquent loans grew by $117 billion thanks to provisions in the congressional stimulus package from earlier this year that allowed borrowers to request up to a year of forbearance. The value of seriously delinquent loans as of Sept. 30 was $158 billion, beating out the previous high of $105 billion in 2012. The rate of seriously delinquent credits in the FHA’s portfolio reached 11.59%. However, the FHA said that rate is expected to rise because the agency tends to serve borrowers with lower credit scores and higher amounts of debt. “Given these and other characteristics, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit FHA borrowers disproportionately harder than those served by conventional and private markets,” the agency’s report said.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.67%" -- Note: This is as of November 1st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.67%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 5.83% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.67% as of November 1, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. .. “With declines in the share of loans in forbearance across the board, the data this week align well with the positive news from October’s jobs report, which showed a gain of more than 900,000 private sector jobs, and a 1 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “A recovering job market, coupled with a strong housing market, is providing the support needed for many homeowners to get back on their feet.” , “However, the data continue to show that servicers are still having difficulties reaching borrowers who have reached the six-month point of their forbearance period. Servicers are required to get borrowers’ consent to extend forbearance beyond six months. Homeowners who continue to be impacted by hardships related to the pandemic should contact their servicer.” .. By stage, 22.25% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 75.99% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.76% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remainedunchanged relative to the prior week at 0.10%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.  This data is as of November 10th. From Black Knight: Another Week of Strong Forbearance Improvement After declining by 5% last week, the number of loans in active forbearance saw another week of strong improvement. According to the latest weekly snapshot of Black Knight’s McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking data, active forbearance plans fell by 121,000 (-4%) over the last week. Overall, that puts forbearance volumes down 9% (-416,000) since the start of November..... As of November 10, there are now 2.74 million homeowners in active forbearance plans, representing approximately 5.2% of all active mortgages, down from 5.4% from last week. Together, they represent $559 billion in unpaid principal.Forbearance starts pulled back, with the week’s 68,000 starts marking the lowest weekly total since the first week of October. New forbearance starts (excluding restarts) hit a COVID-era low of just 31,000. Another 98,000 homeowners had their forbearance plans extended this week....Of the 2.74 million loans still in active forbearance, 81% have had their terms extended at some point since March.With COVID-19 cases rising across the country, it will be important to keep an eye on unemployment numbers and forbearance starts over the coming weeks. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation and report our findings on this blog.

 MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020" -- From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020 - The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.65 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate was down 57 basis points from the second quarter of 2020 and up 368 basis points from one year ago. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to reportloans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. “Consistent with the improving labor market and the overall economic rebound, homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments improved in the third quarter,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The decrease in the mortgage delinquency rate was driven by a sharp decline in newer 30-day delinquencies and 60-day delinquencies. Particularly encouraging was the 30-day delinquency rate, which reached its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979.” Added Walsh, “Nonetheless, the 90-day and over delinquency rate continued to grow and reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2010. With forbearance plans still active and foreclosure moratoriums in place until at least the end of the year, many borrowers experiencing longer-term distress will remain in this delinquency category until a loss mitigation resolution is available.” This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q3. The decrease was in the 30 day and 60 and day buckets.    From the MBA: "Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 48 basis points to 1.86 percent, the lowest rate since the survey began in 1979. The 60-day delinquency rate decreased 113 basis points to 1.02 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket increased 106 basis points to 4.78 percent, the highest rate since the second quarter of 2010." This sharp increase in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1982.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 1.1% YoY in November - From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of November 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by November 6 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 1.1 percentage point, or 131,712 household decrease from the share who paid rent through November 6, 2019 and compares to 79.4 percent that had paid by October 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “November’s opening rent payment figures show that the additional support apartment residents received over the summer, coupled with generous, innovative approaches put into place by property owners and managers, continue to provide renters with some degree of security against the economic distress facing communities throughout the country,”  This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month.  Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments are mostly holding steady - and not falling off a cliff.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 6, 2020.... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 67 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage application activity was mixed last week, despite the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 2.98 percent – an all-time MBA survey low. The refinance index climbed to its highest level since August, led by a 1.5 percent increase in conventional refinances,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market continued its recent slump, with the index decreasing for the sixth time in seven weeks to its lowest level since May 2020. Homebuyer demand is still strong overall, and activity was up 16.5 percent from a year ago. However, inadequate housing supply is putting upward pressure on home prices and is impacting affordability – especially for first-time buyers and lower-income buyers. The trend in larger average loan application sizes and growth in loan amounts points to the continued rise in home prices, as well as the strength in the upper end of the market.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to a survey low of 2.98 percent from 3.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Home Prices Are Rising Everywhere in the U.S. – WSJ - Home prices rose in every corner of the U.S. during the third quarter, as the pandemic boosted activity in a way not seen in recent history. The median price for existing homes in each of the 181 metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors was higher in the third quarter from a year earlier, the association said Thursday. This broad-based rally for single-family homes marked the first time since 1980 that every metro area tracked by NAR posted an annual price increase in the same quarter, NAR said. Back then, the association tracked 19 metro areas. “Americans are viewing their home as something more than what it was before,” as they spend more time at home due to the pandemic, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Right now there is a greater interest for larger-size homes, and naturally they are more expensive.” Record-low mortgage-interest rates have also motivated shoppers to enter the market. And a longstanding shortage of homes for sale has worsened, increasing competition among buyers and sparking bidding wars. Existing-home sales have surged in recent months and reached a seasonally adjusted 14-year high in September. Prices in most markets weren’t simply edging higher but were up significantly from a year ago. In nearly two-thirds of the metro areas tracked by NAR, prices posted double-digit gains. The biggest gainers were Bridgeport, Conn., where the median price rose 27.3%, and Crestview, Fla., up 27.1%. Nationwide, the median single-family home price rose 12% from a year earlier to $313,500, NAR said. “The housing market is, ironically, benefiting from the coronavirus,” said Ralph DeFranco, global chief economist at Arch Capital Services Inc. “We’re seeing just red-hot demand for both bigger homes but also second homes, and also millennials moving into homeownership from rental.” Low mortgage rates have offset some of the effect of rising home prices for buyers. For the week ended Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.84%, up from 2.78% last week but down from 3.75% a year earlier, said Freddie Mac. But mortgage rates are unlikely to fall further from here, as positive news about a coronavirus vaccine is making investors more confident, Mr. Yun said.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in October From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Loses Ground in June” The Dodge Momentum Index fell 1.8% in October to 127.5 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 129.8. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index lost 4.4% over the month, but the institutional component gained 3.3%. The Momentum Index has struggled to make consistent gains since passing its post-pandemic low in June. Economic growth has slowed over the past few months, creating weaker demand for commercial projects. The fear about a new wave of COVID-19 infections may also be impeding planning activity in consumer-focused projects such as hotels and retail, although planning for warehouse projects continues to impress. Even with this month’s gain, the institutional component of the Momentum Index remains well below levels seen prior to the pandemic as state and local entities come to grips with the widening budget chasm.  This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 127.5 in October, down from 129.8 in September.  According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through early 2021.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35.9% Year-over-year From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 November - U.S. weekly hotel occupancy was relatively flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 7 November.
1-7 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 44.2% (-35.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$91.40 (-31.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$40.36 (-55.8%)
Down slightly from 44.4% the prior week, the country’s occupancy level was its lowest since the week of June 14-20. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph below - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:

Consumer Sentiment Fell in First Half of November – WSJ -Americans’ outlook on the economy soured in the two weeks straddling the national elections, as Republicans grew more pessimistic and Democrats worried about a surge in coronavirus infections, according to survey findings released Friday. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment dropped to 77.0 in the two weeks ended Nov. 10, from 81.8 in October. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 81.5. The index of expectations drove the decline, falling to 71.3 from 79.2 in October. The index is the first read on consumer attitudes since President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and President Trump’s campaign launched efforts to contest the election results, which came amid rising coronavirus infections and hospitalizations. “Interviews conducted following the election recorded a substantial negative shift in the Expectations Index among Republicans, but recorded no gain among Democrats,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist. Republicans’ economic outlook in early November fell to levels not seen since President Trump was sworn in, said Mr. Curtin. Meanwhile, Democrats’ worries about the coronavirus resurgence likely offset any increased optimism about the economy, he said. Nearly 60% of Democrats reported that the pandemic had dramatically changed their daily lives, compared with just 34% among Republicans. Views on the economy have long been driven more by party affiliation than by actual performance, viewing the economy as performing better when their party has the White House. A daily index of consumer sentiment by Morning Consult, a data intelligence firm, fell to 90.6 in the week ended Nov. 10, down 1.4 points from the previous week, pulled down by declining confidence among Republicans. Attitudes among Democrats rose slightly. The University of Michigan’s release follows signs of continuing economic recovery—including declining jobless claims last week and rising employment and manufacturing and service activity in October.

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 9.7% year-over-year in September --The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by -8.6% (-23.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2020 as compared with September 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 248.3 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2020 is 247.2 billion miles, a -9.7% (-26.7 billion vehicle miles) decline from September 2019. It also represents 2.8% increase (6.7 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2020. Cumulative Travel for 2020 changed by -14.5% (-355.5 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,093.1 billion vehicle miles of travel. This graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven to remove the seasonal factors.Miles driven declined during the great recession, and the rolling 12 months stayed below the previous peak for a record 85 months. Miles driven declined sharply in March, and really collapsed in April.  

 Supermarkets Limit Toilet Paper Purchases As COVID Cases Hit New Highs --Some experts warn about the genuine possibility that US daily caseloads of coronavirus could breach 200,000 in the coming weeks or by the end of the year as daily new cases top more than 100,000 for the sixth consecutive day. Total cases exceeded ten million on Sunday since the pandemic began, far more than any other country. Weeks ago, on Oct. 28, we informed readers: "panic hoarding begins" - as anxieties of Americans soared in tandem with new cases as threats of a COVID winter along with new restrictions and possible lockdowns drove people to supermarkets. Coronavirus has turned tens of millions of Americans into preppers, as many fringe preppers were relentlessly mocked by mainstream media in February and March ahead lockdowns. A recent survey shows over half of all Americans are currently planning "to stockpile food and other essentials"…Slightly more than half of Americans in a recent poll from Sports and Leisure Research Group say they already have or plan to stockpile food and other essentials. The chief reason is fears of a resurgent pandemic, which could cause disruptions such as new restrictions on businesses. It's not just food people are prepping once again. New reports across the country suggest toilet paper is becoming a hot commodity. Stores are re-implementing limits on toilet paper as demand surges. Kroger, with more than 2,000 supermarkets nationwide, has just put limits on the essential items "to ensure all customers have access to what they need." "We've proactively and temporarily set purchase limits to two per customer on certain products, including bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap," a Kroger spokesperson said in a state ment which was quoted by Fox 11 LA. "Our buyers and suppliers are working hard to provide essential, high demand merchandise as well as everyday favorites," the company wrote.

J.C. Penney rescue deal approved in bankruptcy court (Reuters) - A U.S. judge on Monday approved a deal to rescue J.C. Penney Co Inc from bankruptcy proceedings precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, averting a liquidation that would have put the beleaguered department store chain out of business and jeopardized tens of thousands of jobs. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas approved the deal, which will allow the 118-year-old retailer to emerge from bankruptcy before the upcoming holiday season, the company said in a statement. The rescue deal is expected to save approximately 60,000 jobs. The transaction contains multiple parts. Lenders led by H/2 Capital Partners will forgive $1 billion in debt in exchange for 160 properties and six distribution centers. Mall operators Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Partners will acquire the company’s slimmed-down retail operations for $1.75 billion in cash and debt. The sale approval comes a week after J.C. Penney’s lawyers announced a settlement with nearly all of its creditor groups that locked in support for the sale and marked a turning point in a bankruptcy case that has been marked by inter-lender fighting. However, a group of equity holders – whose investments will be wiped out – remained opposed to the deal. J.C. Penney filed for bankruptcy in May with nearly $5 billion in debt. The company was one of several retailers, including J. Crew Group Inc, Neiman Marcus Group and Brooks Brothers that sought Chapter 11 protection amid the coronavirus pandemic. . The business began to stumble in recent years as online commerce took a toll on traditional brick-and-mortar retail.

BLS: CPI unchanged in October, Core CPI unchanged --From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in Octoberon a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The index for shelter increased 0.1 percent in October, which was offset by a 0.4-percent decrease in the index for medical care. The indexes for airline fares, recreation, and new vehicles were among those to rise, while the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and household furnishings and operations declined.The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12-month period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months after rising 1.7 percent in September. Overall inflation was lower than expectations in October. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: October Core at 1.61%, Down from September - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.18%, down from 1.37% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.61%, down from 1.71% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target. Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.Component indexes were mixed, with many offsetting increases and decreases. The food index rose 0.2 percent, with the food away from home index increasing by 0.3 percent and a smaller 0.1-percent rise in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in October as the index for electricity increased 1.2 percent.The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The index for shelter increased 0.1 percent in October, which was offset by a 0.4-percent decrease in the index for medical care. The indexes for airline fares, recreation, and new vehicles were among those to rise, while the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and household furnishings and operations declined.The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12-month period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months after rising 1.7 percent in September. The food index increased 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 9.2 percent. Read more Investing.com was looking for a 0.1% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.3% for Headline and 1.8% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in October - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in October. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for October here. Car and Truck rentals increased at a 136% annualized rate in October. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.6%. Core PCE is for September and increased 1.5% year-over-year. Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 709,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 751,000 to 757,000. The 4-week moving average was 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,500 from 787,000 to 788,500. This does not include the 298,154 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 361,959 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 755,250.The previous week was revised up.The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.Continued claims decreased to 6,786,000 (SA) from 7,222,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 9,433,127 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 9,332,610 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  An additional 4,143,389 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,983,613 the previous week.

 BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 6.4 Million in September - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 6.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to a series low of 0.9 percent.  The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers.  .   Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in September to 6.436 million from 6.352 million in August.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 8.7% year-over-year.Quits were down 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").Job openings were little changed in September, and are down YoY - and quits are down sharply YoY.

 The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows declines in hires: As winter hits, the Biden administration will be facing a mounting, not waning, crisis - EPI Blog by Elise Gould - Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that, as of the middle of September, the economy was still 10 million jobs below where it was in February. Job growth slowed considerably over the last few months and the jobs deficit in October was easily over 11.6 million from where we would have been if the economy had continued adding jobs at the pre-pandemic pace.Today’s BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports job openings changed little at 6.4 million in September while hires and layoffs fell. While the slowdown in layoffs is promising from 1.5 million to 1.3 million, the softening in hires is a concern (6.0 million to 5.9 million). The U.S. economy is seeing a significantly slower pace of hiring than we experienced in May or June—hiring is roughly where it was before the recession, which is a big problem given that we have more than 11.6 million jobs to make up. And job openings are now substantially below where they were before the recession began (6.4 million at the end of September, compared to 7.1 million on average in the year prior to the recession). No matter how it is measured, the U.S. economy is facing a huge job shortfall.One of the most striking indicators from today’s report is the job seekers ratio, that is, the ratio of unemployed workers (averaged for mid-September and mid-October) to job openings (at the end of September). On average, there were 11.8 million unemployed workers while there were only 6.4 million job openings. This translates into a job seeker ratio of about 1.8 unemployed workers to every job opening. Another way to think about this: for every 18 workers who were officially counted as unemployed, there were only available jobs for 10 of them. That means, no matter what they did, there were no jobs for 5.4 million unemployed workers. And this misses the fact that many more weren’t counted among the unemployed. The economic pain remains widespread with more than 25 million workers hurt by the coronavirus downturn. Without congressional action to stimulate the economy, we are facing a slow, painful recovery.As winter approaches and many families face eviction and hunger as well as growing COIVD-19 cases, the Biden administration will be facing a mounting, not waning, crisis. We cannot wait: Congress must take immediate action to provide relief to all of those unemployed workers who have no hope for employment and are desperately trying to make ends meet. The first dose of austerity exhibited by the loss to the vital enhanced unemployment insurance benefit in August is already taking a toll on job creation. At this slowing pace of job growth, it will take years to return to the pre-pandemic labor market and the economic pain will be deep and long-lasting.

 Another 90,000 Airline Jobs Set To Disappear By Year-End As National Lockdown Looms - Despite the bullish news surrounding Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine earlier this week, lifting airline stocks to the stratosphere, on hopes of a recovery in the severely beaten down travel and tourism sector, an industry group warned Thursday about the dire situation still facing many airlines. Airline For America's CEO Nick Calio, speaking at a conference Thursday morning, said air travel demand is "softening" late in the year. He said some of the reasons for the slump could be due to the resurgence of the virus pandemic. The daily number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints in the U.S. from March 2019 to November 2020 remains halved from early March levels. As the second wave of the virus pandemic ravages many parts of the U.S. - what appears to be happening in the chart below are lower volumes of daily passengers screened at TSA checkpoints that peaked on Oct. 18. Calio said airlines' Thanksgiving-week capacity could be down as much as 39% from a year ago, compared with a 47% drop in the first half of November. It was also noted that corporate air travel in the US remains 86% below 2019 levels. He said airlines could ax upwards of 90,000 workers this year as many carriers must reduce costs to survive the downturn. A muted recovery so far and waning revenues have left airlines in a precarious position - where they're quickly running out of cash. At the moment, airlines are burning through $180 million per day, with only enough cash through 1Q21.

Two Democrats urge CDC to reimpose 'no-sail' order after outbreak on Caribbean cruise - Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) urged the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday to reinstate the “no-sail” order on cruise ships amid an outbreak on the first cruise to debark in months. At least five passengers aboard the ship tested positive on SeaDream 1, which left Barbados on Saturday and had traveled to Saint Vincent, Canouan Island and Tobago Cays. According to Gene Sloan, a reporter who was on the ship, all passengers had to test negative several days before boarding and again on the day of boarding. Another round of testing was conducted Wednesday when the passengers tested positive. In a letter to CDC Director Robert Redfield, the Democratic lawmakers said the development is “not surprising” and “reaffirms the need to exercise extreme caution before sending passengers and crew back out to sea on cruises.” The CDC first barred cruise sailing in mid-March and renewed the order in April and July. It lifted the order in October to allow “simulation cruises” to sail in the U.S. and introduced a phased approach for resuming cruises. The lawmakers also noted reports that the White House reportedly blocked the CDC's plan to extend the no-sail order through February 2021. “[I]t is unconscionable for the CDC to move forward on a plan to resume operations given the ongoing risks,” the lawmakers wrote. “While we appreciate the difficult economic situation cruise line operators face and the desire of many cruising enthusiasts to restore a sense of normalcy, the CDC must always put health and safety first to prevent further spread of this deadly virus and save lives.” The Hill has reached out to the CDC for comment. Cruise ships proved to be dangerous for the spread of the virus after an outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February. Several ships docked outside U.S. waters faced similar incidents before cases began to escalate in the U.S.

 Voters chose more than just the president: A review of important state ballot initiative outcomes -EPI Blog - With enormous attention focused—understandably—on the outcome of the presidential and congressional races on November 3, it’s easy to forget that voters also decided on nearly 6,000 state legislative races and a host of ballot measures in states and localities, including many with important implications for workers, economic justice, racial equity, and the fight against climate change.There were 120 statewide measures considered by voters across the country. In this post, we briefly highlight some of the notable measures that would have a meaningful impact on the welfare of workers, families, and communities; the power of workers and communities to have a voice in economic policy decisions; and the ability of all people to achieve economic security, regardless of race, ethnicity, or gender. We also call attention to the advocacy and research of Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN) members in these states, whose work in many cases was critical in explaining the implications of the measures for workers, families, and communities. Republicans controlled 59 legislative chambers entering the election on November 3, with total control of the state house and governor’s seat in 21 states—22 if you include Nebraska, which officially has a “nonpartisan” unicameral legislature and a Republican governor. Thus far they have not lost control of those previously controlled bodies (results in Arizona are still pending). Additionally, they have picked up both the House and the Senate in New Hampshire, giving Republicans total control in 23 states. Democrats control the state house and governor’s seat in 15 states, while 12 states have divided governance. In addition to determining who has the ability to set the policy agenda in each state, these results are significant because they also determine which party has control in next year’s redistricting process. Only a handful of states have independent redistricting commissions to draft and implement electoral district maps without partisan design, meaning that we can expect some state legislatures to gerrymander their districts. Sadly, this type of gerrymandering has been used aggressively in the past by Republican lawmakers to suppress the voices of particular groups, especially communities of color.

Oregon governor orders two-week statewide 'freeze' amid rising coronavirus cases - Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) on Friday ordered a statewide two-week "freeze," restricting social gatherings and closing many businesses in an effort to help curb the rising spread of COVID-19.Her orders Friday are some of the most extensive restrictions in the state since a March stay-at-home order, The Oregonian reported.Beginning Wednesday, bars and restaurants will become takeout only. Indoor facilities such as gyms, museums and skating rinks will close entirely until the order is lifted after Dec. 2. Indoor and outdoor gatherings will be limited to no more than six people from two separate households.Grocery stores and pharmacies will also be required to limit their capacities, and houses of worship are allotted indoor crowds no larger than 25 people.Anyone traveling to Oregon is also required to quarantine for 14 days upon the arrival."I want to be honest," Brown said Friday. "We are trying to stop this ferocious virus from spreading even more quickly and far wide, and to save lives."She added that some counties could remain in the freeze longer than two weeks, noting that Portland is currently set for four weeks. Multnomah County Chair Deborah Kafoury said the county's daily case number nearly tripled in the last month, including hundreds of untraceable cases due to the local community spread."As the most populous county in Oregon with the bulk of the state's COVID-19 cases and half of the state's hospital beds, we must immediately take steps to slow the current surge," Kafoury said.

States reimpose extensive COVID-19 restrictions - Three states are set to reimpose some of the most extensive coronavirus-related restrictions amid a nationwide spike of infections and hospitalizations. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) on Friday announced a two-weeks-long "freeze" that will close certain businesses and dramatically reduce capacity of indoor spaces. Brown's plan, which will begin next Wednesday, will limit all bars and restaurants to takeout only, close all gyms, prohibit indoor and outdoor gatherings to no more than six people from two different households, cap capacity at grocery stores and pharmacies at 75 percent and allow churches and faith groups to accommodate indoor crowds of no more than 25 people, or 50 people outside. During a press conference, Brown said the freeze will last longer for certain hot spot counties that have been hit harder with the COVID surge. "I want to be honest about that now. Be prepared. Our actions right now, no matter where in the state you live, are absolutely critical," Brown said. Brown said the freeze will not apply to barber shops, hair salons or homeless shelters. Outdoor recreation and sports programs, including Pac-12 college football games, are also exempt as are child care programs, K-12 schools and higher education institutions. The announcement comes on the same day Brown and fellow West Coast governors in California and Washington issued a joint travel advisory, warning that anyone arriving from out of state should quarantine for two weeks. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is going even further. The state is going to hit the "reset" button, Lujan Grisham said. From Nov. 16 through Nov. 30, all nonessential businesses will be closed, and residents are being urged to stay at home. Essential businesses, such as grocery stores, pharmacies, child care facilities and more, will be forced to “minimize operations and in-person staffing to the greatest extent possible,” although they may remain open. In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott is one of the lone Republican governors reimposing harsh restrictions. Effective at 10 p.m. Saturday, the state is prohibiting multiple-household gatherings, both inside and outside. All restaurants have to close in-person dining at 10 p.m., and must provide seated dining service to no more than one household per table. All bars, breweries and social clubs will be closed. All recreational sports programs will be suspended, and out of town college students must quarantine upon arrival in the state.

Maryland governor re-imposes restrictions as COVID-19 cases reach record levels in the Washington, DC region  On Tuesday, Maryland’s Republican governor Larry Hogan announced that the state would be re-imposing restrictions on public spaces and businesses as daily numbers of COVID-19 cases have doubled in the past month throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, which includes Washington, DC and Virginia. On Tuesday, the Washington, DC metropolitan region saw 2,859 cases and 27 deaths. This is roughly 30 percent more cases in one day than what was being recorded in the region as recently as a week ago. Maryland has reported nearly half of these cases, with a running daily average of about 1,270 over the past week. Until Wednesday, the state was in “stage 3” of its reopening process, which allowed “high risk” activities to go on without restriction. In March, Hogan had ordered the state to shelter-in-place as COVID-19 initially swept through the area. The new restrictions, which went into effect Wednesday, require restaurants and stores to cut their indoor services by 50 percent. In addition, other gatherings have now been restricted to 25 persons. "We're now seeing widespread community transmission. More people are getting infected with the virus, more people are being hospitalized and going into intensive care, and more people are dying,” Hogan said at a press conference Tuesday. Various metropolitan and heavily populated suburban jurisdictions in the state have gone even further than the statewide measures. In Montgomery County, the most populous region of the state, Democratic County Executive Marc Elrich on Tuesday imposed measures restricting indoor businesses to 25 percent maximum capacity and gatherings to 25 people or less. The city of Baltimore also enacted similar measures that are set to go into effect Thursday. Hogan’s decision to re-impose social distancing measures comes as daily COVID-19 cases in the United States have cleared upward of 130,000 cases per day and has recorded over 10 million cases as a whole. Daily hospitalization numbers also exceed 60,000 persons. The re-imposition of safety measures in the Mid-Atlantic follows the region’s various Democratic and Republican governments’ efforts to reopen their jurisdictions with reckless abandon over the summer.

New study reveals disturbing surge in violent injuries during stay-at-home orders - The social isolation brought on by stay-at-home orders (SAHO) issued in the early phase of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a deadly and dangerous side effect: an increase in intentional penetrating injuries, especially firearm violence, that has remained at high levels even as stay-at-home orders have subsided and as COVID-19 cases are on an upswing. Philadelphia-area researchers released these findings in an "article in press" published on the Journal of the American College of Surgeonswebsite in advance of print.  Jose L. Pascual, MD, PhD, FACS, and colleagues at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia report that while emergency department (ED) visits fell drastically during stay-at-home orders, visits for intentional injuries reached historic highs and have stayed there since. As of October 19, Philadelphia has experienced 386 homicides, a 39 percent increase over the same time last year, reported KYW/AM Newsradio. "We are now looking at the fact that even though main emergency department admissions have pretty much settled back to numbers pre-COVID--including trauma admissions, falls, motor-vehicle and motorcycle collisions, pedestrian accidents--and elective operations have mostly returned to normal, penetrating injury still remains high," Dr. Pascual said. Importantly, he noted the same demographic--young African-American men--has been disproportionately impacted by these injuries, before as well as after statewide SAHO were eased.

As COVID-19 cases explode, Iowa remains “open for business” - Iowa’s COVID-19 testing sites were closed for Veteran’s Day Wednesday, as the state braces for the collapse of its health care system due to an exponential rise in infections. The pause in testing comes a day after Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, a Republican, held a press conference to announce new restrictions that will facilitate the spread of the coronavirus in Iowa, which has been unmitigated in the state since cases began spiking this fall. In a state that has seen a 200 percent increase in cases over the last two weeks, the governor’s new regulations fall far short of the most basic precautions established in much of the United States. Iowa is being used by the most craven elements of the ruling class as an experiment in herd immunity. Iowa had the third-highest rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States in the last week according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 621 new infections per 100,000 people. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Iowa added 4,421 and 4,764 cases, respectively. Over the past two days, Iowa’s statewide positive case rates have remained near 50 percent, with a 14-day rolling positive rate at 20 percent, indicating uncontrolled spread aided by a criminal lack of testing. Since March, 1,898 Iowans have died from COVID-19, including over 50 in the last 48 hours. On Tuesday, Governor Reynolds announced new toothless regulations after refusing to implement a statewide mask mandate. The new regulations only require masks for gatherings of more than 25 people indoors or 100 people outdoors, with the exception of schools and some workplaces, most notably restaurants and bars, which remain open without any limits on capacity. The new limits tacitly endorse mask-free indoor gatherings under 25, which, according to University of Iowa epidemiologist Eli Perencevich, indicate that the Iowa Department of Public Health “does not know how the virus spreads.” Perencevich tweeted, “This will have a negative impact since it delays implementation of proven effective intervention.” The rapidly growing spread of coronavirus threatens to quickly overwhelming the state’s hospital system, which is nearing 100 percent capacity and actively seeking to hire new health care workers. Despite the overwhelming strain on the health care system and on the paltry Test Iowa program, Reynolds indicated that state-sponsored testing centers would close Wednesday and wind down operations over the holiday week. Reynolds claimed the current daily capacity for processing tests on the state level is now just 2348, down from a high of over 6,000. She continued, “if a Test Iowa site is full, please seek out other options,” before listing options that included buying tests at Costco, which are currently only available online, for $130.

Hundreds of thousands of people face utility shutoffs as pandemic surges -- Chelsie DeSouza of South Philadelphia lost her job to the COVID-19 pandemic. So, a coronavirus-related moratorium on utility bills meant there was one less stress on her shoulders. That bill came back this week when the moratorium ended on Nov. 9, thanks to a Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission vote. The same day shutoffs resumed, DeSouza got an email from PECO informing her that the moratorium had ended and warned her of her past-due account. DeSouza panicked. “It gave me a lot of anxiety, just trying to figure out how I would pay what I owed,” she said of the last-minute notice. DeSouza was fortunate to be able to pay and avoid shutoff. Yet hundreds of thousands of Philadelphia households struggle with a more difficult path as unemployment soars and coronavirus infections surge. As of June, the number of customers at risk of having their utilities shut off was as high as 800,000 for regulated utility companies, said Community Legal Services attorney Rob Ballenger. He expects the numbers to be even higher today. It is unknown how many customers of unregulated utility companies have also fallen behind and could be disconnected. “Now, as our case numbers look to be awful and trending higher and higher every day now, there’s this additional likelihood of harm to a utility shutoff resulting from a lifting of the absolute ban of utility shutoffs in Pennsylvania,” Ballenger said. Anyone whose household income is at or below 300% of the federal poverty level — about $65,000 a year for a family of three — can be protected from utility terminations. Under state law, publicly regulated utility companies are obligated to tell consumers how to avoid termination. That might include assistance programs they may be eligible for, many of which are funded by the state. PECO lists some of these programs on its website. A PECO spokeswoman said there were more than 325,000 customers with outstanding balances as of Wednesday. She declined to say whether the utility had begun disconnecting people, but she noted that it has launched numerous customer assistance programs, and that customers who can’t pay their bills should call 1-888-480-1533 or visit the website for information on relief. Relief programs include payment plans with no added interest and grant programs for outstanding balances.

DeSantis hires COVID-conspiracy spinning blogger - When Gov. Ron DeSantis needed to hire a data analyst, his staff picked a little-known Ohio sports blogger and Uber driver whose only relevant experience is spreading harmful conspiracy theories about COVID-19 on the Internet. In his own words, Kyle Lamb of Columbus, Ohio, has few qualifications for the job at the state’s Office of Policy and Budget, which pays $40,000 per year.“Fact is, I’m not an ‘expert.’ I’m not a doctor, epidemiologist, virologist or scientist,” Lamb wroteon a website for a subscribers-only podcast he hosts about the coronavirus. “I also don’t need to be. Experts don’t have all the answers, and we’ve learned that the hard way.”Plucked from the obscurity of the blogosphere, Lamb, 40, broadcasts his lack of scientific training in his theories about the pandemic. In frequent posts on Twitter and sports message boards, Lamb has said that masks don’t prevent the coronavirus from spreading; that lockdowns are ineffective; that hydroxychloroquine, a drug touted by President Donald Trump, can treat the virus; that COVID-19, which he said might be part of a Chinese “biowar,” is not more deadly than the flu; and that the virus isn’t dangerous for children to contract.

McDonald's and M&M's are among fast food, candy brands spending $1.8 billion advertising to kids, increasingly via child influencers - --Some of the world's most popular child influencers are generating millions of impressions for fast food and drink brands, through product placement in their videos, a new study in the Pediatrics journal has found. Researchers from New York University found dozens of videos targeted at children that explicitly referenced McDonald's and other fast food brands.  Food and beverage companies spend $1.8 billion a year on marketing campaigns targeted at children, the researchers found – and these companies have "dramatically increased" their online advertising as younger users increase their social media use, say the researchers.  More than 80% of parents say they allow their children to watch YouTube videos – and this has created an easy way for companies to advertise their products to children, the researchers said.  But across social media, brands don't always have to pay for adverts to market their products. Sometimes, influencers can unknowingly do this work for free.This includes child influencers, whose videos of them innocently playing with McDonald's toys and pretending to work at drive-thrus mean that their child viewers view potentially hundreds of hours of content related to fast food each year. Children are filmed by their parents playing with toys and discussing hobbies and interests. The parents then upload these videos to YouTube. These children become influencers if their channel has lots of subscribers and views – and as a result, they can influence viewers' buying behavior by endorsing products in their videos, which can make sales jump by up to 28%, the researchers said. The New York University researchers identified the five most-watched child influencers, aged between three and 14 years, on YouTube in 2019. Between them, Ryan's World, Sandaroo Kids, TheEngineeringFamily, Daily Bumps, and The Tube Family had 38.6 million subscribers by June 2019 and more than 10,000 videos. The researchers took a sample of 179 videos from those channels that featured food or drinks, including 123 that featured food or drinks in the video thumbnail. Across these videos, the children and family on screen made 291 food or drink references in total – and 90.3% were to unhealthy, branded items.Fast food appeared the most, followed by chocolate and soda. McDonald's dominated the videos, accounting for more than a quarter of all food or drink references at 81. The researchers also found 16 references to Hershey's, 13 to Kinder, 12 to M&M's, 11 to Skittles, nine to Oreo, and eight each to Coca-Cola and Kellogg's Froot Loops.

Kids are secretly spending thousands of their parents' money betting on special video game wagering sites  - Some kids have found a way to turn their passion for video games into profits — as well as losses —  by placing bets on "Fortnite" and other popular games on a new crop of platforms where age restrictions are lax.Video game wagering platforms, where gamers can bet as little as $1 and as much as $500 to play strangers on "Call of Duty," "Fortnite," and other games, have exploded during the pandemic, and venture capitalists have been increasingly interested in recent years. Some platforms don't do much to keep out underage users, and clinicians and researchers said they're concerned about kids developing gambling habits, a Business Insider investigation found. New York-based attorney Ryan Morrison, who represents developers, gamers, and others in the video game ecosystem, said he's been approached by parents and kids who have lost hundreds of dollars, and sometimes even tens of thousands of dollars, on video game wagering."We get reached out to quite a bit, either by kids, scared their parents will find the credit card bill, or by parents who did find the credit card bill," he said. Business Insider evaluated four of the top platforms that have emerged in recent years – Players' Lounge, Play One Up, UMG, and CMG – and found that there is no consistent age verification process. All the companies ask users to agree at signup that they're at least 18 years old.From there, verification ranges from more stringent approaches like Players' Lounge, which asks users to take selfies with their identification at various stages — a step that former employee said doesn't go far enough. UMG, meanwhile, instructs kids on its site on the best way to take their winnings off that platform, language that a company spokesman said will change. Players' Lounge and UMG both said they take age verification seriously. A representative for Play One Up declined to comment, while CMG did not respond to requests for comment. 

Oregon Governor Kate Brown allows 150,000 students to return to unsafe schools -- On October 29, Oregon’s Democratic Governor Kate Brown released new guidelines for the reopening of public schools, which would allow around 25 percent of the state’s students to return to classrooms in the next month. Brown’s office made the announcement on the same day COVID-19 cases skyrocketed to record levels, making clear that the new guidelines have nothing to do with the safety of teachers and students. Until now, most school districts could only reopen when the statewide test positivity rate was at 5 percent or lower, a measurement that has not been met since mid-September. Smaller districts were allowed to reopen when the number of positive cases were no more than 10 per 100,000 for three consecutive weeks, and kindergarten to third-grade classrooms could reopen with case rates of 30 per 100,000 over the same period. These guidelines had allowed between 35,000 to 45,000 students to return to some form of in-person instruction, most of them young children and kids with special needs, according to the Oregon Department of Education (ODE). The new guidelines eliminate the statewide positivity rate requirement and group all K-6 students together. School districts may now fully reopen with a two-week total of up to 50 cases per 100,000, and operate in a hybrid model in counties with two-week case rates of up to 100 per 100,000. If one adjusts the case-rate criteria to be compared on a one-week window, the case-rate limit has been increased by over 7.5 times from the previous standards. With the green light from the governor, an estimated 150,000 of the state’s 600,000 public school children will return to campus in some fashion. The major exception is the Portland metro area, which has maintained a relatively high rate of cases in the state given its population density.

Massachusetts governor pushes for in-person learning as COVID-19 cases surge - As coronavirus cases continue to soar in Massachusetts, reaching over 2,000 cases per day for the first time since the heights of the first wave in the spring, Republican Governor Charlie Baker and state officials are continuing their pressure campaign to herd students and teachers back into classrooms. In the week from October 29 to November 4, new coronavirus cases were reported in 118 Massachusetts school districts among staff and students, with nine districts reporting five or more cases. This is undoubtedly a significant undercount, as schools are not required to report these figures. Haverill Public Schools reported the most cases at 10, nine of whom are staff members. The criminal effort to reopen schools for in-person and hybrid learning is being approached by the state on several fronts. There has been a consistent change to criteria under which school and other closings would take place, turning inadequate measures into what is becoming the deliberate culling of untold numbers of people. The continued operation of Boston Public Schools (BPS) well beyond the previously agreed upon 4 percent city positivity rate threshold, which was quickly raised to 5 percent, is but one example of this effort. While Boston schools were forced to close October 22, there is a push to reopen them. Baker has gone a step further, declaring that schools across the state should close only as a “last resort” when there is evidence of transmission within the school. When transmission does occur within a school, it is proposed that only those classrooms where it occurred will be closed, not the entire campus. Accompanying these state measures are changes to the metrics and methodology used to classify the level of transmission risk per district, the lowest designated as grey and increasing to green, yellow, then red. What was previously considered a red zone, at eight cases per 100,000 residents, has now been adjusted according to population size. A town with a population of 10,000 or less will now need to have over 25 cases, a rate of 250 cases per 100,000, to be deemed red. This and other changes made to the metrics dropped the number of red zone districts from 121 to 16 overnight, despite the growing number of cases. Unscientific claims are also being advanced to justify the forced opening of schools. This includes the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) school opening guidelines, which cite flawed and limited studies to claim that schools would be safe and children would not catch or spread the virus easily. On November 6, Baker claimed: “At this point there is clear and convincing scientific data that shows children are at significantly less risk of developing serious health issues from exposure to COVID-19, and there is clear and convincing scientific data that shows learning in a classroom, as long as people are playing by the rules, does not lead to higher transmission rates.” He added that remote-only learning carries mental health risks such as depression and anxiety.

 The deliberate sabotage of online learning in the US - Tens of millions of students, parents and teachers across the United States and internationally are struggling through a semester unlike any other in modern history. The policy of closing school buildings and implementing online learning—the result of brave protests and strikes by teachers, parents and students—has saved an untold number of lives throughout the world. In the US, the deliberate defunding of public education by both Democrats and Republicans, and years of a growing “digital divide” between the haves and have-nots, has meant that online learning is often bare-bones, unengaging or even completely inaccessible for millions of young people. It is no surprise that 60 percent of teens say that online learning is worse than in-person learning, and nearly one-fifth say it’s “much worse,” according to a recent survey by Common Sense Media. The unfolding disaster in the transition to online learning is both the cumulative effect of the decades-long defunding of public education and the intentional deepening of this policy amid the pandemic. The disregard of the ruling elites for the lives and education of young people has been made apparent in the chaotic implementation of distance learning done “on the cheap.” Students have experienced uncertain schedules, rotating between fully- and partially-online learning. Meanwhile, parents, teachers, and students have been left with little or no assistance and resources. The net result is the deliberate blackmail of a generation—to get a semblance of an education, they are being forced into deadly school buildings. The ruling elites are attempting to force schools to reopen so that parents can be forced back into unsafe workplaces, pumping out profits for the major corporations. The last thing big business wants is a quality online education alternative which would cut across the demand that parents be on the job. According to CISION PRWeb, over 60 percent of K-12 students now attend schools in-person at least part of the week, with 35.7 percent of schools offering in-person learning every day, 26.5 percent in a hybrid schedule of two-three in-person days per week and 37.8 percent of schools only offering virtual learning.

Iowa teacher dies three days after testing positive for coronavirus - A 38-year-old teacher in Iowa died last week, just three days after testing positive for coronavirus. Daniel Frazier, superintendent of the Belmond-Klemme Community School District, told the Des Moines Register that teachers and staff members at the secondary school were tested last week following an outbreak of COVID-19. Jason Englert, a teacher for the district’s Talented and Gifted program, was told he was positive on Nov 5. "We sent him home early that Thursday and checked on him that Thursday night and that was the last time we heard from him," Frazier said. Police were sent to Englert’s home for a welfare check on Sunday after he failed to return his father’s calls, according to Frazier. Police discovered his body and investigators concluded that the teacher had died suddenly a day or two earlier. It was Englert's first year at the school district, located approximately 90 miles north of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The teacher also coached junior high volleyball and junior high girls basketball. “For the students, of course it was such a shock at first. Many of our students had trouble knowing how to register this,” Frazier said in an interview with news station KCCI 8. Englert was described as a teacher with a “positive energy” and “a lot of energy.” “He was just a very energetic guy, and he always had a cheerful way of looking at things,” Frazier said. “It wasn’t unusual for me to ask him how it was going and he would say things like ‘living the dream.’ ”

Notre Dame orders COVID-19 tests for students after massive celebration of win over Clemson  Students at the University of Notre Dame will be subject to mandatory coronavirus tests and strict penalties as a result of thousands of fans storming the football field and partying to celebrate their victory over the Clemson University Tigers on Saturday. The Associated Press reports that students will be required to take a coronavirus test before leaving South Bend, Ind., for the upcoming winter break or risk facing penalties. University President Rev. John I. Jenkins said in an email to students on Sunday that it was “very disappointing to see evidence of widespread disregard for our health protocols at many gatherings over the weekend.” In his email, Jenkins said he consulted with Mark Fox, deputy health officer for St. Joseph County, when deciding what actions to take in response to these events. According to the email, students will be placed on a registration hold if they fail to appear for requested testing, heightening the penalty from a previous statement that said students would only lose their priority registration status. Their registration will also be placed on hold if students are discovered to have left the South Bend area before receiving their test results The letter states there will be “zero tolerance” for gatherings that are not in line with health and safety guidelines, regardless of whether they occur on campus. Sanctions will be placed against those who host such gatherings. If a student tests positive for COVID-19 they will be required to self-isolate on campus for two weeks, the AP reports.

UAlbany going fully remote for rest of semester | WNYT.com --UAlbany is going fully remote for the rest of the fall 2020 semester. That starts this Tuesday, November 10. The school said Monday it comes after a "significant spike" in coronavirus cases. Campus housing will remain open. The last day of classes will be Nov. 24, with final exams Nov. 30 through December 7. The spring semester will begin February 1.  As a result of a very concerning increase in the number of presumptive COVID-19 cases among University at Albany students, on Friday, November 6, we decided to conduct surge testing. Approximately 3,400 samples were submitted from on-campus students, which resulted in a presumed positivity rate of 3.3%. As per our COVID plan, we have identified the corresponding students and they have been placed in quarantine, aside from students who opted to quarantine in their homes. In addition, there will be a number of steps being taken as part of PAUSE to help ensure the health and safety of our entire campus community. These include:

• Moving to take-out dining only
• No seating in the Campus Center or other common spaces on campus
• Remote-only use of the libraries
• No campus events or gathering of any size
• Suspension of all athletics and recreation activities

These changes will be effective immediately. Please see our PAUSE webpage for more details. It is also critical that we continue to monitor the infectivity rate among our students and employees through the University’s surveillance testing program. If you are on campus, please continue to submit your individual saliva tests weekly on the day designated, or more often if directed. For regular updates, please monitor your email and our COVID-19 website.

Is Fear of AOC Why Chuck Schumer Is Pumping a Non-Starter “Cancel Student Debt by Executive Order” Scheme? - - Yves Smith - It’s odd to see Democrats talking about a Biden “100 days” when Obama did nothing like that when he actually did have a mandate to do so that he ignored. Did they not get the memo that their blue wave didn’t hit the beach? It’s even odder to see Chuck Schumer affecting a Damascene conversion, particularly with respect to the student debt part of the scheme below: Neither Lambert nor I recall Schumer supporting the either Sanders or Warren student debt cancellation plans while they were Presidential contenders (although Schumer issues so many press releases, he could very well have made a nod. Nevertheless, Schumer did team up with Warren on calling for the cancellation of up to $50,000 per person in student debt…..after the Democratic primaries, in September 2020, as another stimulus idea. This follows an earlier coronavirus proposal in March by Schumer, Warren, Sherrod Brown,and Patty Murray to suspend federal student debt payments and wipe out $10,000 per federal student debt borrower. But the important part is that this part of Schumer’s remarks excerpted in Twitter are disingenuous, unless he’s secretly become a Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin convert: ….we believe Joe Biden can do that with the pen as opposed to legislation. This is at best accurate on a technical level but substantively misleading. Warren has argued that the Department of Education has the legal authority to manage student loans, including cancelling them. But even the sympathetic Journal of Higher Education implies that her sole authority for her claim is a report from the Legal Services Center of Harvard. The report contends that the Secretary of Education has the power to modify “a debt,” which includes wiping it out to zero. The problem here is that the exemption of student lending from the appropriations process was that in theory, it doesn’t have any budgetary impact. And that is true in fact. The Feds profit from their student lending.  Warren and Sanders admitted up front that the student loan forgiveness plans each advocated during the primaries would have budgetary impact. Each stated how they intended to pay for them.  And the truly disingenuous part of the “with a pen” claim is that that most assuredly does not extend to private student loans, are usually more expensive and have worse terms than federal loans. Finance sites recommend them only as a supplement to federal loans, meaning if the student can’t get borrow enough from federal loans. In addition, private loans constitute roughly $130 billion of the total of $1.6 trillion outstanding. The Secretary of Education can’t wipe them out because they are not under his domain. The Federal government could eliminate them by offering to buy them out at market value or by cancelling them and paying market value to the lender (the Fifth Amendment prohibits the government from appropriating property without compensation). But it appears that Schumer and his allies are content to leave the borrowers with the worst loans stuck in debt slavery. In other words, I can see the argument that the Secretary of Education has the authority to wipe out federal student loans…until it hits a level where it has budgetary impact. I’m not an expert on formalities, but I don’t see how the Department of Education can finesse hundreds of billions of principal losses and a former cash machine turning into a cost. Hence Congress will get involved via budgeting (which could also come via threatening to make up for the loan forgiveness cost through cuts elsewhere).

 Biden Plan to Forgive Student Debt Hinges on Democratic Control of Senate – WSJ -- President-elect Joe Biden’s ability to deliver on his plan to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in student debt faces steep odds unless Democrats take control of the Senate.Barring that outcome—which hinges on two Georgia races in January—Democrats have urged a second option: bypassing Congress through executive action. It isn’t clear whether such a move would survive a legal challenge.During the election campaign, Mr. Biden said he would push to forgive $10,000 in debt for every American with federal student loans to help them cope with the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic.He has also called for forgiving any student debt that covered tuition at public colleges for borrowers earning under $125,000, and any student debt owed by those who show they were defrauded by for-profit colleges.Congressional Democrats sought to forgive $10,000 for all borrowers early this year as part of a broad pandemic-relief bill known as the Cares Act, but the Republican-controlled Senate opposed it. The two parties compromised on a provision to suspend student-debt payments through Sept. 30. A Senate Republican aide recently said the party continues to oppose Mr. Biden’s debt-forgiveness plans. Senate Republicans have opposed Democratic proposals for large-scale debt forgiveness, which would drive up the record budget deficit without offsetting tax increases or savings.Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) urged the new Biden administration to forgive student debt through executive action in a recent Washington Post op-ed. Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate’s top Democrat, supported the move in an interview with author Anand Giridharadas published Nov. 3. The pair were among 13 Democrats who introduced a resolution in September urging the next president to cancel up to $50,000 in student debt for each borrower through executive action. The full Senate didn’t act on the resolution.

The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy --The following data is from the CDC United States Life Tables, 2017.   In 2017, the overall expectation of life at birth was 78.6 years, decreasing from 78.7 in 2016. Between 2016 and 2017, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.1 year for males (76.2 to 76.1) and did not change for females (81.1). Life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.1 year for the white population (78.9 to 78.8) and the non-Hispanic white population (78.6 to 78.5) between 2016 and 2017. Life expectancy at birth did not change from 2016 for the black population (75.3), the non-Hispanic black population (74.9), and the Hispanic population (81.8)....[The following] summarizes the number of survivors by age, race, Hispanic origin, and sex. To illustrate, 57,839 persons out of the original 2017 hypothetical life table cohort of 100,000 (or 57.8%) were alive at exact age 80. In other words, the probability that a person will survive from birth to age 80, given 2017 age-specific mortality rates, is 57.8%. ... In 2017, 99.4% of all infants born in the United States survived the first year of life. In contrast, only 87.6% of infants born in 1900 survived the first year. Of the 2017 period life table cohort, 57.8% survived to age 80 and 1.9% survived to age 100. In 1900, 13.5% of the life table cohort survived to age 80 and only 0.03% survived to age 100 Instead of look at life expectancy, here is a graph of survivors out of 100,000 born alive, by age for three groups: those born in 1900-1902, born in 1949-1951 (baby boomers), and born in 2017.There was a dramatic change between those born in 1900 (blue) and those born mid-century (orange). The risk of infant and early childhood deaths dropped sharply, and the risk of death in the prime working years also declined significantly.The CDC is projecting further improvement for childhood and prime working age for those born in 2017, but they are also projecting that people will live longer. The second graph uses the same data but looks at the number of people who die before a certain age, but after the previous age. As an example, for those born in 1900 (blue), 12,448 of the 100,000 born alive died before age 1, and another 5,748 died between age 1 and age 5. The peak age for deaths didn't change much for those born in 1900 and 1950 (between 76 and 80, but many more people born in 1950 will make it). Now the CDC is projection the peak age for deaths - for those born in 2017 - will increase to 86 to 90!  Using these stats - for those born this year (in 2020) - almost 60% will make it to the next century. An amazing statistic: for those born in 1900, about 31 out of 100,000 made it to 100.  For those born in 1950, 199 are projected to make to 100 - a significant increase.   Now the CDC is projecting that 1,894 out of 100,000 born in 2017 will make it to 100.

 Tesla’s Musk Says He May Have Covid-19, Calls Tests ‘Extremely Bogus’ - Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk tweeted he may have Covid-19 and renewed his conspiratorial posting about the virus that has infected almost 53 million people. “Something extremely bogus is going on,” the chief executive officer wrote late Thursday. “Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive.” The billionaire said he took a series of rapid antigen tests, which produce results within 15 minutes and are cheaper but less reliable than polymerase chain reaction tests. He’s now waiting for results from the latter type of test, which take longer to process. Musk, 49, wrote that he was experiencing symptoms of a typical cold, describing them as “nothing unusual so far.” The CEO has at times been dismissive and sowed doubts about Covid-19, questioning the virality of the disease and claiming fatality rates are overstated. In March, he predicted there would be close to zero new cases in the U.S. by April. Roughly 150,000 cases are now being reported in the country each day. Musk appeared to cast doubt on the extent of infections in a follow-up tweet, claiming false positive results will track with the number of tests conducted and that the U.S. daily test rate has “gone ballistic.”

Large, delayed outbreaks of endemic diseases possible following COVID-19 controls - Measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing and social distancing are a key tool in combatting the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. These actions also have greatly reduced incidence of many other diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Current reductions in these common respiratory infections, however, may merely postpone the incidence of future outbreaks, according to a study by Princeton University researchers published Nov. 9 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Declines in case numbers of several respiratory pathogens have been observed recently in many global locations," said first author Rachel Baker, an associate research scholar at the High Meadows Environmental Institute (HMEI) at Princeton University. "While this reduction in cases could be interpreted as a positive side effect of COVID-19 prevention, the reality is much more complex," Baker said. "Our results suggest that susceptibility to these other diseases, such as RSV and flu, could increase while NPIs are in place, resulting in large outbreaks when they begin circulating again." Baker and her co-authors found that NPIs could lead to a future uptick in RSV -- an endemic viral infection in the United States and a leading cause of lower respiratory-tract infections in young infants -- but that the same effect was not as pronounced for influenza. "Although the detailed trajectory of both RSV and influenza in the coming years will be complex, there are clear and overarching trends that emerge when one focuses on some essential effects of NPIs and seasonality on disease dynamics," said co-author Gabriel Vecchi, Princeton professor of geosciences and the High Meadows Environmental Institute.

Dogs can detect COVID-19 quicker, better than nasal swabs: study -- Dogs can detect COVID-19 in humans quicker and more accurately than the gold-standard nasal swab, according to a new study. A Finnish scientist, who’s been testing the disease-detecting pups at Helsinki Airport, said her pooches identified a number of people who had the virus but had tested negative after taking polymerase chain reaction (PCR) nasal tests, The Times reported. Days after the dogs — Miina, Kössi and Valo — diagnosed the travelers, the supposedly negative passengers started experiencing symptoms.Dr. Anna Hielm-Björkman said this suggests pooches may be able to sniff out the virus at the very beginning stages of infection.“They’re actually finding PCR negatives that are going to be PCR positives in a week’s time,” the scientist, who’s yet to publish her findings, told the outlet.Researchers in Finland aren’t the only ones who’ve realized man’s best friend’s latest skill — from France to Lebanon to the UAE, scientists are reporting the same experience, Hielm-Björkman said.“It’s kind of a problem when you have a test that is so much better than the gold standard, because you cannot validate it in any normal way,” she said.

COVID Misinformation a Roadblock to Curbing Pandemic - The World Health Organization calls the spread of false information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) an "infodemic," and the results are broadly visible across society. The refusal of some people to wear a mask or socially distance, or self-quarantine when exposed to the virus, is often motivated by false information or conspiracy theories that are popular on social media. In a pair of newly published studies, University of Delaware researchers shed new light on the stigma, stereotypes and conspiracy theories that have spread alongside the novel coronavirus. Understanding the impact of misinformation "is important for identifying potential barriers to public health efforts" to combat the virus, said Valerie Earnshaw, associate professor in UD's Department of Human Development and Family Sciences and lead author on both studies. "Evidence suggests that people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories when they feel anxious, powerless, and unable to control their outcomes, as well as in times of crisis and when faced with large-scale events with serious consequences," she said. "Pandemics such as COVID-19 are powerful contexts wherein individuals may turn to conspiracy theories in an attempt to restore feelings of safety and control." Ultimately, the more prominent the misinformation, the more difficult it will be for communities to bring the pandemic under control.The first study, "Anticipated Stigma, Stereotypes, and COVID-19 Testing," which appeared in the journal Stigma and Health, suggests that stereotypes and anticipated stigma may be barriers to COVID-19 testing efforts. The results, Earnshaw said, are very similar to previous studies about HIV and Ebola stigma. "We know from studies on mental illness and HIV that stigma will keep people from getting tested," said Earnshaw. "And stereotypes are one way that people experience stigma. Stereotypes are how stigma gets into our heads and shapes our views. Stereotypes help people feel safe. Stereotypes help people believe that those who get COVID, or HIV, are unlike them or doing the wrong thing. Stereotypes can sometimes give people a false security blanket."The second study, "COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs, health behaviors, and policy support," which appeared in the journal Translational Behavioral Medicine, found that one-third of participants believed in one or more conspiracies about COVID-19, and the results suggest that belief in conspiracy theories makes a person less likely to support public health policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. Participants who believed in conspiracy theories said that they were less likely to get vaccinated and trusted public health experts less.

More economic worries mean less caution about COVID-19 - - Workers experiencing job and financial insecurity are less likely to follow the CDC's guidelines for COVID-19, such as physical distancing, limiting trips from home and washing hands, according to a Washington State University study. The researchers, who surveyed 745 workers in 43 states, also found that state unemployment benefits and COVID-19 policies affected the connection between economic concerns and compliance with COVID-19 precautions. The study shows that a scarcity mindset can play a role in how well people are able to focus on responding to the pandemic, said Tahira Probst, a WSU psychology professor and lead author in the study published recently online in the Journal of Applied Psychology. "We all have a finite set of resources at our disposal, whether it's money, time or social support, and individuals who have fewer of those resources appear less able to enact the CDC-recommended guidelines," said Probst. "The extent to which economic stressors will impact that behavior is in part a function of where we live. Having a fall back, a strong safety net to catch you, seemed to help mitigate the risk factors of job insecurity that was otherwise associated with less adherence to the guidelines." In states with lower unemployment benefits, job insecurity was associated with a 7% decline in compliance with COVID-19 prevention behaviors. State-imposed COVID-19 mandates also had a positive effect on compliance but seemed to primarily benefit the financially secure workers more. In states that had fewer restrictions on behavior that could spread the disease, workers were less likely to follow the CDC's recommendations, whether the respondents were financially secure or insecure. However, in states with a stronger response, including measures such as stay-at-home orders and shutting down non-essential businesses, financially secure employees had 13% higher enactment of the prevention behaviors compared to workers who felt more financially insecure.

One in five coronavirus patients develop mental illness within 90 days -- New research suggests that people who have survived COVID-19 infections are at a greater risk of developing mental illness. This data, published in The Lancet Psychiatry Journal, indicates that 20 percent of observed COVID-19 patients are diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder such as anxiety, depression, or insomnia within 90 days after being diagnosed. Researchers analyzed data from about 69 million people, 62,354 of whom were COVID-19 patients. The goal was to see if COVID-19 patients were at an increased risk of psychiatric diagnoses following the infection as opposed to people with other health complications. The results suggest that COVID-19 patients saw greater post-illness diagnoses of anxiety disorder, insomnia, and even dementia, as opposed to patients who were sick with influenza or other respiratory tract infection similar to COVID-19. Anxiety disorders were the most common diagnoses following an infection, with dementia only occurring in patients older than age 65. More severe psychotic disorders, which have potential to severely compromise everyday cognition, were less commonly seen. To rule out any lurking variables that could alter the conclusion, such as people who are predisposed to mental illness being more vulnerable to a COVID-19 infection, researchers looked at preexisting studies. Limited associations between mental illness and COVID-19 susceptibility were discovered. The study, funded by the National Institute for Health Research, concluded that while the data is preliminary, the findings encourage further analysis into the psychiatric effects of the coronavirus. “Survivors of COVID-19 appear to be at increased risk of psychiatric sequelae, and a psychiatric diagnosis might be an independent risk factor for COVID-19,” the authors wrote.

Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective - The drug maker Pfizer announced on Monday that an early analysis of its coronavirus vaccine trial suggested the vaccine was robustly effective in preventing Covid-19, a promising development as the world has waited anxiously for any positive news about a pandemic that has killed more than 1.2 million people.Pfizer, which developed the vaccine with the German drugmaker BioNTech, released only sparse details from its clinical trial, based on the first formal review of the data by an outside panel of experts.The company said that the analysis found that the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing the disease among trial volunteers who had no evidence of prior coronavirus infection. If the results hold up, that level of protection would put it on par with highly effective childhood vaccines for diseases such as measles. No serious safety concerns have been observed, the company said.Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of the two-dose vaccine later this month, after it has collected the recommended two months of safety data. By the end of the year it will have manufactured enough doses to immunize 15 million to 20 million people, company executives have said. “This is a historical moment,” said Kathrin Jansen, a senior vice president and the head of vaccine research and development at Pfizer. “This was a devastating situation, a pandemic, and we have embarked on a path and a goal that nobody ever has achieved — to come up with a vaccine within a year.” Independent scientists have cautioned against hyping early results before long-term safety and efficacy data has been collected. And no one knows how long the vaccine’s protection might last. Still, the development makes Pfizer the first company to announce positive results from a late-stage vaccine trial, vaulting it to the front of a frenzied global race that began in January and has unfolded at record-breaking speed.

Covid vaccine: Pfizer says drug 90% effective in blocking infection - Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as "a great day for science and humanity." "I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel," Pfizer Chairman and CEO Dr. Albert Bourla told CNBC's Meg Tirrell on "Squawk Box." "I believe this is likely the most significant medical advance in the last 100 years, if you count the impact this will have in public health, global economy." The announcement comes as drugmakers and research centers scrambled to deliver a safe and effective vaccine to help bring an end to the coronavirus pandemic that has claimed over 1.2 million lives worldwide. Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, while White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has said one that is 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable. U.S. stock futures skyrocketed as investors cheered the news. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,646 points, implying an opening gain of more than 1,630 points. Airline and cruise company stocks jumped in premarket trading — with some stocks rising by 20% and 30%. Both industries have been significantly affected by the global health crisis as travel restrictions and a resurgence in outbreaks continue to hurt demand. Pfizer's results were based on the first interim efficacy analysis conducted by an external and independent Data Monitoring Committee from the phase three clinical study. The independent group of experts oversees U.S. clinical trials to ensure the safety of participants. The analysis evaluated 94 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial's 43,538 participants. Pfizer and the U.S. pharmaceutical giant's German biotech partner said the case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received a placebo indicated a vaccine efficacy rate of above 90% at seven days after the second dose. It means that protection from Covid-19 is achieved 28 days after the initial vaccination, which consists of a two-dose schedule. The final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary, however, as safety and additional data continue to be collected. 

Possible COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough makes measures to stop virus spread now more urgent -The announcement from Pfizer and German partner BioNTech Monday that there has been progress in the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19 is a promising and encouraging development. It makes all the more necessary urgent measures to contain the spread of the virus and save lives until a vaccine is widely available. Pfizer announced that patients in clinical trials who received two injections of the vaccine, spaced three weeks apart, had 90 percent fewer cases of COVID-19 than a control group. By way of comparison, the typical yearly flu vaccine is only 40–60 percent effective. The findings were based on initial data from a clinical trial of over 43,538 participants, which were reviewed by an independent board, but which have not yet been made public. The company intends to file for an emergency use authorization once half of the participants in the study have been observed for safety issues for at least two months, sometime in the third week of November.If approved, Pfizer’s vaccine (as well as that being developed by rival Moderna) would be the first mRNA vaccine in widespread use. This would open a new age for the rapid treatment of infectious diseases with a whole new class of low-cost vaccines. In its report on the vaccine, medical journal Stat noted that “there is no information yet on whether the vaccine prevents severe cases, the type that can cause hospitalization and death. Nor is there any information yet on whether it prevents people from carrying the virus that causes Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, without symptoms.” The latter would be critical in determining how effective the vaccine is in lowering transmission rates. It is also still too early to say how long the vaccine protects against infection. Stat also noted that the results announced by Pfizer and BioNTech have not yet been peer reviewed by scientists or published in a medical journal. That being said, it does appear that progress is being made. Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, noted that the initial results from Pfizer also bode well for the vaccine being developed by biotechnology firm Moderna and the National Institutes of Health based on similar technology. The progress toward a vaccine makes all the more criminal the policy of “herd immunity” that is being implemented by governments throughout the world. As one begins to see light at the end of the tunnel, the argument that it is necessary to “live with the virus” becomes absolutely unacceptable.

Turkish-Born Muslim Scientists Behind Pfizer's Successful COVID19 Vaccine -- Pfizer has announced today that its COVID19 vaccine has been found to be more than 90% effective in its recently concluded large-scale trial. The two key scientists who developed this vaccine are Turkish-born Muslims named Dr. Ugur Sahin and his wife Dr. Ozlem Tureci, according to media reports.  The couple started BioNTech, a technology startup based in Germany, to develop treatments using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. A Tunis-born Muslim scientist Dr. Moncef Mohamad Slaoui is leading Operation WARP Speed announced by President Donald Trump to rapidly develop and distribute a coronavirus vaccine in the United States. Covid19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world faces today.Muslim scientists are in the forefront of dealing with this challenge. This is particularly notable in a world where Islamophobia has gone mainstream in recent years. Dr. Sahin, 55, is the son of a Turkish Muslim immigrant who worked at a Ford factory in Cologne, Germany. He is now among 100 richest Germans, together with his wife and fellow board member Dr. Oezlem Tuereci, 53, according to weekly Welt am Sonntag.  Sahin had been working on mRNA technology with his wife Dr. Tureci for more than 25 years. The couple, both children of Muslim Turkish immigrants who met while working at a cancer clinic, sold their first company, Ganymed Pharmaceuticals AG, for $1.66 billion in 2016, according to the Wall Street Journal. Then they started BioNTech whose market value on NASDAQ has soared to $21 billion as of Friday’s close from $4.6 billion a year ago.

NY Bar Association Recommends Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccine With No Exemptions - The New York State Bar Association is urging the state to adopt mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations once they become available - if 'voluntary measures fail to protect public health' - and has recommended following 'current New York law' - including exemptions for "religious, philosophical or personal reasons," according to the New York Law Journal."The authority of the state to respond to a public health crisis is well-established in constitutional law," said Mary Beth Morrisey NY Bar association Health Law Section Task Force chair, in a Saturday statement."In balancing the protection of the public’s health and civil liberties, the Public Health Law recognizes that a person’s health can and does affect others," she continued. "It may become necessary to require that certain individuals or communities be vaccinated, such as healthcare workers and students, to protect the public’s health."According to the Bar Association's recommendation, "To protect the public’s health, it would be useful to provide guidance, consistent with existing law or a state emergency health powers act as proposed in Resolution #1, to assist state officials and state and local public health authorities should it be necessary for the state to consider the possibility of enacting a vaccine mandate."They also recognize that the public needs to believe that the vaccine is safe and that it works. "A vaccine must not only be safe and efficacious; it must be publicly perceived as safe and efficacious."

Europe To Pay Lower Price For Pfizer COVID Vaccine Than US  -Even after the Trump Administration shelled out $2 billion in Operation Warp Speed money to secure 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (don't listen to the MSM when it claims Pfizer hasn't benefited from government money), Europe has still somehow managed to secure a better price as part of a deal reported earlier on Wednesday. Earlier today, Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Bourla - who was also exposed for dumping a huge quantity of his stock, top-ticking the market - EU agreed to buy up to 300 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, sealing its newfound status as the most advanced, and most promising, vaccine effort in the West. Exploratory talks involving the deal were initially disclosed back in September, but the news of the deal on Wednesday propelled shares higher, even as insiders revealed they were headed for the exits.Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that under the terms of the EU deal, the per-dose price of the vaccine will be lower than in the US.The bloc will pay less than $19.50 per shot, a senior EU official involved in talks with vaccine makers told Reuters, adding that partly reflected the financial support given by the EU and Germany for the drug's development.The officia l requested anonymity as the terms of the agreement are confidential.The United States agreed to pay $19.50 per shot for 100 million doses, a smaller volume than the EU. But it has an option to buy a further 500 million under terms to be negotiated separately, and the price it will pay is unclear.

"A Vaccine For The Rich" - Pfizer's COVID-19 Jab Almost Impossible To Distribute In Poorer Countries -A logistical "roadmap" from Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical has been released showing the staggering logistical feats required to transport and store the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which has just been christened by Bloomberg as "the vaccine of the rich". Offering some more insight into details that have been the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, Bloomberg reported on this "complex and costly" private network that companies are building to help distribute vaccines like Pfizer's mRNA vaccine (a technology that's also being used by another leading candidate, Moderna), that is, once it has finally been approved.  Countries that don't already have these networks will need to build them from scratch if they wish to substantially reduce the supply bottleneck, which would be "a herculean task".  That means that countries will need to build from scratch the deep-freeze production, storage and transportation networks needed for the vaccine to survive. This massive investment and coordination required all but guarantees that only rich nations will manage to dial up access, with the wealthy first in line to receive their doses. "Its production is costly, its component is unstable, it also requires cold-chain transportation and has a short shelf life," said Ding Sheng, director of the Beijing-based Global Health Drug Discovery Institute, which has received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.  The WHO and Bill Gates have invested plenty of time on a PR campaign warning that access to the vaccine must be made 'universal' - that is, extended to all of earth's 7.7 billion people - or humanity won't manage to eradicate COVID-19.  Together, they've backed a project called 'Covax' which aims to raise $18 billion to pay for vaccines for poorer countries.  But even once they've been paid for, the task remains: how can we physically ship and store them in such vast quantities?  The massive expense of the infrastructure investment means many of these poorer countries are now faced with a difficult choice: invest in the supply network, even before the vaccines have been approved, and take a risk should unforeseen complications arise, or wait to see how everything pans out for the developed world, sacrificing valuable time. Many of these economies could simply wait longer until more conventional vaccines, using other technologies, such as Russia's adenovirus-vector vaccine, are available. Generally speaking, mRNA vaccines are a new class of vaccines, which is why some are apprehensive about the long-term side effects, which can't be reliably studied.  “If there is a protein-based vaccine that could achieve the same effect as an mRNA vaccine does and there’s the need to vaccinate billions of people every year, I’d go for the protein-based shots in the long run,” Ding said.  Countries like India are facing particular difficulties given that shipping regular consumer goods remains a difficult, even treacherous, process across much of the country's hinterland. Health-care experts in the country have already dismissed sub-zero storage as completely unworkable - "just forget it, one said."

Pfizer, Moderna Results Leave Many Important Questions Unanswered --"The light at the end of the tunnel." It's a phrase we've heard a lot this week, since Pfizer confirmed that its experimental mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is 92% effective: "The light at the end of the tunnel".That is, the notion that a the emergence of an effective vaccine means we're reached the beginning of the end of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has come roaring back in the US and Europe as the fall weather arrives, Bloomberg reports. In recent days, we've discussed the myriad obstacles to widespread vaccination that still remain, and warned that much testing and research remains to be done before humanity can start to feel like it's finally getting its arms around the coronavirus. Aside from that, there are logistical and public-relations hurdles as well, as a team of DB analysts explained in a recent report for clients.Other major obstacles facing vaccines in development by both Pfizer and Moderna, which is also working on an mRNA-based vaccine, as we've noted before, are the low temperatures required to store them, making distribution in the developing world virtually unworkable without serious infrastructure investment. Moreover, the Pfizer vaccine has a notable practical limitation: It must be kept frozen at an ultralow –94F until a few days before it is used. That requires special freezers or dry ice packs, complicating distribution. Moderna is thought to be just a few weeks behind Pfizer in the testing process. It’s working with the same messenger RNA technology, which uses the body to produce a key coronavirus protein, stimulating the immune system to make antibodies to fight the virus. Moderna says its vaccine can be kept in regular freezers; some other vaccines don’t need to be frozen at all.Pfizer’s vaccine also requires two shots to be given three weeks apart before significant protection kicks in. While most other vaccines in late-stage testing also require multiple shots, Johnson & Johnson’s may work after just one, which would enable more people to get protection faster. Results of a 60,000-participant J&J trial may come by year-end. Though the Gates Foundation, the WHO and Beijing are all working together on the "Covax" international vaccination effort, attempting to raise $18 billion to vaccinate the world, the odds that the necessary infrastructure will actually be built in the coming months and years is slim. Rather, while the "rich" world gets the early, experimental mRNA vaccine, the "poor" world might need to wait for a more familiar "protein-based" option.

The Super Cold Covid Vaccine Distribution Problem - Yves Smith - Even though Mr. Market is over the moon about the prospects for a not-yet-approved-by-anyone Pfizer Covid vaccine, Naked Capitalism readers quickly pounced on the question of whether or not the unprecedented mass distribution of a vaccine that needs to be kept at roughly -100F for no more than five days before use might be a problem. As we’ll discuss, building new super-cold distribution is so costly and daunting that developing economies are likely to turn down the Pfizer vaccine. And not only are rural areas expected to get the short shrift, but even US states are having trouble developing credible distribution plans, which suggests that even some cities may encounter delays in getting their hands on the vaccine (assuming it is approved quickly). Keep in mind that the same distribution issues apply to another promising-looking vaccine, from Moderna, which is another messenger-RNA-based vaccine and also must be kept at very cold temperatures before use, although not as severely cold as the Pfizer candidate.  And yes, sports fans, no such cold-chain storage system exists now, anywhere in the world. Keep in mind that the problem isn’t just keeping the vaccine vials super cold till they get to where they will be used. They also need to be kept in a super-frigid state at close to their point of delivery, or delivered on a just-in-time basis.  ProPublica gives a good overview of the delivery and storage issue:  The Pfizer vaccine is unusually difficult to ship and store: It is administered in two doses given 28 days apart, has to be stored at temperatures of about minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit and will be delivered in dry ice-packed boxes holding 1,000 to 5,000 doses. These cartons can stay cold enough to keep the doses viable for up to 10 days, according to details provided by the company. The ice can be replenished up to three times. Once opened, the packages can keep the vaccine for five days but can’t be opened more than twice a day. The vaccine can also survive in a refrigerator for five days but can’t be refrozen if unused. Below is a graphic in the Wall Street Journal as to how Pfizer plans to pack its vaccine. BBC ran this last night Two things struck me: one is insulated boxes are only currently available certified for storage down to -8C (so not suitable for low temperature medicines which need around -18C, but probably a good option for medium temperature cold storage). The other thing Pfizer ‘fessed up to was the phials were only capable of withstanding 4 exposures to ambient air without compromising stability. A logical guess is that embrittlement of the pharmaceutical-grade seals on the phials caused by any repeated thermal stress eventually means there’s soo much risk of allowing any more. So, four strikes and you’re out. You can envisage one exposure to ambient air as the vaccine leaves the the vaccine finishing plant and gets packed for initial transportation to the bulk storage facility. Another exposure will occur when they’re unpacked and placed into bulk storage. Then another exposure when they’re lifted out of bulk storage and repacked for local distribution. There’s one “life” left after all that — unpacking and thawing prior to dispensing. So zero room for any errors or unintended ambient air exposure.

 Bloomberg Warns: A Covid Vaccine Could Help the Virus Spread - Yves Smith - Before readers accuse me of being an alarmist, the headline above closely tracks the headline of the Bloomberg story by Peter Coy, How a Covid-19 Vaccine Could End Up Helping the Virus Spread. The striking bit is once you understand the medical issues Coy is raising, you’ll see his concern is legitimate. The short version is just because you got the vaccine does not necessarily mean you can’t infect others.Until the rise of anti-vaxxers, with unseemly rush to get a Covid vaccine legitimating the vaccine refusnik (or “wait and see”) position, it was reasonable to assume that citizens would dutifully get vaccinated against dangerous contagious diseases, as much for themselves as everyone else. The high uptake rate would reduce the risk of anyone catching the disease to a very low level. But Covid presents a very different picture. Even with enthusiastic coverage of the progress on vaccine development, a big slug of Americans still aren’t on board. A survey a few months back found only 50% would get a Covid vaccine. Even with infections and deaths on the rise, an end-of-October STAT/Harris poll found that fewer than 70% would take a vaccine with 70% efficacy:   But separately, unless there’s a lot more propaganda messaging and education, the actual take-up numbers are sure to be lower if a vaccine had side effects serious enough to have decent odds of the recipient needing to take a day off from work. And even if we assume that more people eventually become willing to get jabbed, it’s still going to take time to roll out a vaccine. The EU said they can’t vaccinate everyone before 2022.  And now, here is the nub of Coy’s concern: If everyone in the world is vaccinated, or has developed antibodies through exposure to the disease, there will be no problem. But in the early going, when only some people are protected, they could unwittingly spread the disease to people who are still vulnerable. The vaccinated people might stop wearing masks and social distancing since they aren’t themselves at risk anymore. They could be carrying the SARS-CoV-2 virus, even if they’re not getting sick from it.How big a problem this might be is hard to say, because we don’t know for sure if immunized people are capable of shedding infectious virus. It’s possible that their antibodies will eradicate any infection pretty quickly, so they might just shed viral debris….It’s also not yet clear how much protection the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and others would provide. The gold standard is to achieve sterilizing immunity, which is so strong that the virus can’t get a grip in the body at all—meaning that vaccinated people are safe to others. The human papillomavirus vaccine provides sterilizing immunity, for example. But sterilizing immunity is hard to achieve with viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, which enter through the respiratory system. The only sure way to know if the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity would be to check whether trial subjects who remain free of Covid-19 have been exposed to it, by tracing their contacts.

Researchers identify melatonin as possible COVID-19 treatment.  Results from a new Cleveland Clinic-led study suggest that melatonin, a hormone that regulates the sleep-wake cycle and is commonly used as an over-the-counter sleep aid, may be a viable treatment option for COVID-19.As COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the world, particularly with cases rising during what some have termed the "fall surge," repurposing drugs already approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for new therapeutic purposes continues to be the most efficient and cost-effective approach to treat or prevent the disease. According to the findings published today in PLOS Biology, a novel artificial intelligence platform developed by Lerner Research Institute researchers to identify possible drugs for COVID-19 repurposing has revealed melatonin as a promising candidate.Analysis of patient data from Cleveland Clinic's COVID-19 registry also revealed that melatonin usage was associated with a nearly 30 percent reduced likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) after adjusting for age, race, smoking history and various disease comorbidities. Notably, the reduced likelihood of testing positive for the virus increased from 30 to 52 percent for African Americans when adjusted for the same variables. "It is very important to note these findings do not suggest people should start to take melatonin without consulting their physician," said Feixiong Cheng, Ph.D., assistant staff in Cleveland Clinic's Genomic Medicine Institute and lead author on the study. "Large-scale observational studies and randomized controlled trials are critical to validate the clinical benefit of melatonin for patients with COVID-19, but we are excited about the associations put forth in this study and the opportunity to further explore them."

A televangelist who referred to the coronavirus as a 'privilege' has died from it  -A televangelist who once described the coronavirus pandemic as a "privilege" died from the disease Tuesday. Irvin Baxter died in the hospital at 75, according to a press release from Endtime Ministries, which Baxter founded. Baxter was a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump and had suggested premarital sex was the reason the coronavirus exists. During a March discussion on "The Jim Bakker Show," a national TV show centered around the end of time, Baxter preached about "the sin of fornication" outside marriage. "I thought about fornication and I did a little research," he said. "I hope this research is not correct, but I got it straight from the encyclopedia. It says that 5% of new brides in America now are virgins. That means 95 percent have already committed fornication!" He said millions of unmarried American couples were living together and having sex, which he called sinful and punishable in the eyes of God. "God may be using this as a wake-up call," Baxter then said about the coronavirus. "This coronavirus may be a privilege, because I'll tell you right now, there is a much bigger judgment coming. It's in the Bible." Baxter denounced people who "think we can just ignore God and live a sinful lifestyle." 

US coronavirus: The country nears 10 million Covid-19 cases - The United States is hurtling toward yet another grim milestone of 10 million cases, with over 9.9 million reported cases as of Sunday evening, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The country recorded 100,762 new cases and and 453 new deaths as of 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, marking the fifth highest day of new cases in the country since the pandemic began. The fall resurgence has brought regular records in cases, people hospitalized and daily deaths -- and experts are encouraging measures to mitigate the spread as they warn that the numbers may continue to climb in coming weeks. "We're going to see these case numbers really start to explode," former US Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday. The virus can be dealt with by targeting mitigation state by state, he said, but the US is not doing that currently, and the lack of intervention could build up for the future, spelling trouble for December and January, he said. "It's not just the cases; it's the hospitalizations as well. That's really the number to watch: 53,000 people hospitalized, 10,500 people in ICUs. That's a lot, and it's growing very quickly." Sixteen states reported record high Covid-19 hospitalizations Friday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, and 22 states have reported at least one record high day of coronavirus hospitalizations during November, so far. On Sunday morning, the global number of cases topped 50 million, with the US, India, Brazil and Russia, in that order, the hardest hit, composing more than half the cases, Johns Hopkins reports. While the total number of cases in the US approaches 10 million, Texas alone is inching toward 1 million cases, with more than 5,000 reported Sunday. In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown said Sunday the state has surpassed the "alarming threshold" of 50,000 cases.

US colleges have reported more than a quarter million coronavirus infections, survey says - The number of coronavirus cases reported at colleges and universities across the country has surpassed a quarter million, according to a New York Times Survey. The survey of more than 1,700 U.S. colleges and universities claims more than 252,000 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed on campuses with at least 80 deaths since the pandemic began. More than 50 campuses have marked 1,000 COVID-19 infections while 400 colleges have reported at least 100 cases. Our country is in a historic fight against the Coronavirus.  . The majority of infections occurred as students returned to school for the fall semester and the large part of deaths took place in spring among employees, the survey says. More than 38,000 new cases occurred over the past two weeks. While most colleges and universities have opted for remote learning in an effort to mitigate the spread of the virus, more than a third have allowed students on campus to some degree. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in September released a report stating coronavirus infections among young adults increased significantly from August to September as colleges and universities reopened around the country. The CDC report found that between Aug. 2 and Sept. 5, weekly COVID-19 cases among adults aged 18-22 increased 55 percent nationally. While young adults are at lower risk for severe disease and death if they contract the virus compared to older adults and those with preexisting conditions, they can certainly transmit the virus to those at higher risk and can also become seriously ill themselves.

Potential superspreader event as 10,000 Notre Dame fans storm field after college football game - Thousands of college football fans in South Bend, Indiana, stormed the field Saturday night following the home team Notre Dame’s victory in double overtime over Clemson, then the top-ranked program in the country. The private Catholic university currently has 208 active coronavirus cases on campus out of a total student body of roughly 12,500. As with most major programs throughout the country, Notre Dame, one of the most popular college teams in the country with a nationwide following, is playing close to a full season even as the coronavirus continues to spiral out of control. Eleven of a possible twelve scheduling slots have been filled, with six home games. While Notre Dame Stadium, which normally seats 77,662, has been limited to 20 percent capacity, 11,011 fans were attendance at last Saturday’s matchup. Aerial coverage suggests that most of these fans, including virtually all of the student section, rushed the field immediately after the game. Under normal circumstances this a traditional celebration in college football, but under pandemic conditions it is almost certain to be a major superspreader event. The day of the game, 126,156 new COVID-19 cases were reported in the United States, including 4,899 in Indiana. Nearby Illinois, where a large number of Notre Dame fans live, is the current center of the pandemic in the United States. According to the university’s COVID-19 Dashboard, Notre Dame saw a sharp increase in cases in the few days before the Clemson game. On November 4, the school reported 71 active cases. This has since more than doubled to 208. Clemson University, located in South Carolina, has also seen a rise in cases, with 573 confirmed cases being reported over the past 4 weeks. Among those infected was Clemson’s starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who did not play in Saturday’s game but was permitted to sit on the sidelines with his teammates. The Clemson game was held with just two weeks until the end of the fall semester, when thousands of students will disperse across the country. All students are now required to be tested before leaving campus for the winter break, the university announced Sunday, with those testing positive forced to quarantine for two weeks. Students who do not get tested or leave before getting their results will be subject to severe penalties, including being prevented from registering for classes in the spring semester.

Hospitalization crisis across the US as coronavirus infections surge = Using 10 modeling groups’ data, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its four-week hospitalization forecast for Nov. 30. They estimated that there would be 2,600 to 13,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day by the end of this month. Over the last seven days, the national rate of admissions to hospitals has been just over 1,200 per day. In other words, the CDC is expecting the rate to climb two to 10 times in the next three to four weeks. This is an astounding rate that should force local and state governments to pause and give immediate considerations to their response to the pandemic. This is no longer a speculative matter. The need for greater mitigation efforts is becoming necessary to stem the tide of infections to provide relief to health care systems. Even the mainstream news and local media outlets have been raising repeated concerns over the alarming rates of hospitalizations from COVID-19 infections that are bringing health systems to the brink. Unlike testing and case numbers, which can be quite variable, hospitalization numbers are a reliable metric for the state of the community transmission as it represents people sick enough to seek care. Europe’s health system, which is in a dire predicament, faces significant challenges and should provide the US with a terrifying perspective. Germany, which has twice the per capita ICU capacity on average compared to Europe as a whole, has reached 75 percent of its total capacity. Belgium is currently transferring patients to Germany as their ICU capacity has filled. Dr. Susanne Johna of Saint Josef’s Hospital, an internist in Germany, speaking to DW News TV, said peak ICU capacity is usually reached two weeks after the peak in infections. Responding as to when she expected the peak to arrive, she answered, “nobody knows.” Due to significant staff shortages, nurses and physicians in Belgium and the Netherlands are being asked to keep working. The country’s health minister, Frank Vandenbroucke, described the situation as a “tsunami of infections where the authorities are no longer in control.” There are currently 55,817 hospitalized patients in the United States, up from a low of 28,608 on Sept. 20. Of these, 11,078 are in the ICUs and 2,943 are on ventilators. The previous peaks in hospitalization in April and July reached close to 60,000. The breakdown by age group (which has remained consistent throughout the pandemic) reveals that 75 percent are over age 50, with the majority in this group being over 65. Those between 18 and 49 account for 24 percent of hospitalizations.

U.S. COVID-19 hospitalizations surge to record of just over 59,000 patients: Reuters tally (Reuters) - There were just over 59,000 COVID-19 patients in hospitals across the United States on Monday, the country’s highest number ever of in-patients being treated for the disease, as new infections at record levels for the sixth consecutive day. The harsh statistics tallied by Reuters cemented the United States' position as the nation worst affected by the coronavirus pandemic, even as drugmaker Pfizer Inc PFE.N provided some hope with successful late-stage tests of its vaccine. President-elect Joe Biden hailed Pfizer’s progress, but urged Americans to wear masks as he noted a vaccine may not be widely available for many months. The number of Americans with COVID-19 currently hospitalized has surged around 73% over the past 30 days to at least 59,008 - a record level that surpasses the previous high of 58,370 on July 22. Daily new infections, meanwhile, exceeded 100,000 for the sixth consecutive day. Hospitalizations are a key metric of how the pandemic is progressing because, unlike case counts, they are not influenced by the number of tests performed. Texas reported the highest number of hospitalized patients with 6,103, followed by Illinois with 4,409 and California with 3,668 patients, according to the Reuters tally. Mask wearing has become a political issue in the United States, with Trump mocking Biden for wearing a mask during the campaign and many conservatives contending masks infringe on their individual freedom. Politics aside, the data shows that the United States is experiencing its worst phase so far of the outbreak. It has reported more than a million new cases in the past 10 days, according to the Reuters tally, the speediest surge in infections since the country reported its first COVID-19 cases, in Washington state, 294 days ago. More than 770,000 new cases were diagnosed in the week ended Nov. 10, up 34% over the previous seven days, according to the tally. The country has reported a total of around 10.13 million cases.

 North Dakota reaches 100 percent hospital capacity, tells health care workers to continue working if infected with COVID-19 -- The Governor of North Dakota, Republican Doug Burgum, announced during a news conference on Monday that hospitals have reached 100 percent capacity across the state due to the rapid spike in cases of COVID-19. North Dakota has become the epicenter of the outbreaks occurring in the Midwest, with daily cases breaching 1,000 last week and active cases reaching 11,719 on November 10. Over 1.5 percent of the entire state population is currently infected with the virus. Total cases have surpassed 56,000 and total deaths are closing in on 700, twice the number of one month ago. Of the 30 COVID-related deaths on Monday, a third were from the Bismarck area. And in Ward County, which has seen 83 deaths in total, two-thirds have come in just the last two weeks. The rapid rise in cases across the state has put the health care system on the brink of collapse. As of November 10, there are 383 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, with 48 of them in the intensive care unit. With 20 percent of all hospital beds filled by coronavirus patients, North Dakota hospitals are filled to capacity and face a shortage of staff. In a desperate bid to avoid staff shortages amidst the crisis, the North Dakota government has issued an order that allows nurses who have tested positive for the virus to continue working if they exhibit an asymptomatic condition. This decision came at the request of hospital administrators, who are terrified by the prospect of losing staff during a dire health emergency which is growing worse by the day.

Cleveland Clinic dealing with 300 cases of COVID-19 among staff — On Monday afternoon, state doctors spoke to the public about what they called an "unprecedented spike" of coronavirus cases in Ohio, and how it has been stressing hospital staffs.   During the press conference, Dr. Robert Willey from the Cleveland Clinic-- among other top medical professionals in the state-- mentioned how the spike has led to an increase of hospital staffers testing positive for COVID-19 and that the Clinic alone was facing "over 300" cases of the virus among staff members.  Dr. Willey stressed that in "Zone 1" of Ohio — which comprises the northern portion of Ohio — hospitals have adequate availability of hospital beds, as well as supplies like personal protective equipment, ventilators and drugs.   "It's not because they're catching it in the hospital, it's because they're catching it in the community," Wyllie said. "So we need everyone to double down. Please wear a mask and social distance to protect Ohio's caregivers."  All the doctors who spoke Monday all reiterated that if the ongoing spike in state coronavirus cases continues, it could negatively impact non-coronavirus-related treatment in hospitals. You can watch the full briefing below.

Metro Detroit hospitalizations rise sharply as second wave of COVID-19 cases surges across Michigan - Hospitalizations of people infected with COVID-19 in the Detroit metropolitan area increased dramatically last weekend as a second wave of the pandemic surged across Michigan and dwarfed the case numbers of last spring. A report in Bridge Magazine on Monday said that hospitals “in metro Detroit’s six counties are treating over 1,300 patients, up 200 from Friday alone.” Among the hospital systems facing the COVID-19 surge are Beaumont Health, which has experienced an increase in cases from 172 on Oct. 25 to 377 on Sunday, the report said. Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit. The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at the six Henry Ford Health System hospitals increased from 177 on November 2 to 354 one week later. [Photo Credit: Kevin Reed] Dr. Nick Gilpin, Beaumont Health’s director of infection prevention epidemiology, said, “We’ve had a notable rise in COVID-19 cases in metro Detroit. Community positivity rates have jumped to 8–11 percent in the area.” The number of daily coronavirus cases in Michigan reached 6,473 on Wednesday, which is more than three times greater than the peak of 1,953 last April during the early days of the pandemic. There have been a total of 217,000 confirmed cases and 7,600 deaths from the pandemic in Michigan. According to data maintained by the state of Michigan, the major hospitals in metro Detroit, including Ascension Health, Beaumont Health, Detroit Medical Center, Henry Ford Health System, McLaren Health, Michigan Medicine and Trinity Health, all had bed occupancy of between 75 percent and 85 percent as of Wednesday. These seven hospital networks have a total of 1,670 COVID-19 cases, with 340 patients in intensive care. The surge in cases and hospitalizations has forced many hospitals to restrict visitor access. Henry Ford Health System issued a statement on Tuesday saying that, while the hospital “recognizes the importance of the support by loved ones during a patient’s hospitalization,” the decision to restrict visitation and limit family presence is based on “the health and safety of our patients, our team members and others in our facilities.” Dave Coulter, executive of Oakland County, a suburban county north of Detroit, said during a live Facebook event on Tuesday, “Over the weekend our seven-day average for confirmed cases spiked to over 400 per day for the first time. That’s a pace of over 2,800 COVID-19 cases per week.” Hospitalizations across the state of Michigan have quadrupled since Oct. 1. Ruthanne Sudderth, spokeswoman for the Michigan Health and Hospital Association, told Bridge Magazine, “We are getting close to a point where people won’t be able to get care for COVID” or other health issues.

Coronavirus dashboard for November 9: Wow (and not in a good way) -- (includes 7 detailed graphs)

• US total infections: 9,968,155*
• US average last 7 days: 108,737
• US total deaths: 237,570
• US average last 7 days: 939

*I suspect that the real number is about 16 million, or about 5% of the total US population  While we have been riveted by the 2020 election, the pandemic has continued to rage out of control in parts of the US, particularly in parts of the upper Midwest and northern Mountain States. At its peak, NY had an average daily rate of 51 infections per 100,000 people. Now, 17 States have infections rates higher than that: The worst is North Dakota, at 174 infections per 100,000 people. By contrast, the worst country on the planet, Czechia, had 117 infections per 100,000 people at its recent peak: In addition to North Dakota, 5 other States have infection rates equal to or surpassing that of Czechia: Next, here is the infection rate in 3 US States with large outbreaks: NY, AZ, and ND: Whether due to a demographic shift in those who are getting sick (the early death rate in the US was largely a factor of so many cases in nursing homes), or due to better treatments in hospitals, the rate of deaths in the summer outbreaks (as shown by Arizona below) and *so far* in the recent outbreaks, has not come anywhere near the lethality in the early outbreak in NY: At the same time, the current outbreak in ND is roughly 3x as bad as the summer outbreak in AZ. At its worst, the death rate in AZ was 1.14 per 100,000 people, vs. 3.93 in NY in April. But, if the death rate now proves similar to that in the summer outbreak in AZ, which peaked at a 7 days average of 52.8 infections per 100,000 people daily, then ND, which currently has a 7 day average of 173.6 infections per 100,000 people, can expect a death rate of 3.75 per 100,000 people daily, very close to the death rate of 3.93 per 100,000 in NY at its peak. Another way of looking at this is to compare the infection and hospitalization rates for NY and ND, below: So far, the hospitalization rate in ND is less than 1/3 of that of NY at its worst. Comparing hospitalizations with deaths, below: We see that deaths in ND are about 40% of those of NY at its peak. But hospitalizations lag infections by roughly 3 weeks, and deaths lag hospitalizations by about another 2 weeks. Infections in ND have almost doubled in the past 3 weeks. A doubling of ND hospitalizations would put it at roughly 2/3 of the NY peak, with deaths expected to follow suit. And of course there is no indication yet that ND’s infection rate has peaked. Nor, with he possible exception of South Dakota, is there any such indication for any of the other 16 States with infection rates similar to Czechia.  Sadly, it appears likely that by Thanksgiving there is going to be a full-scale emergency in parts of the upper Midwest and Mountain States similar to the one that engulfed NYC in April.

November 9 COVID-19 Test Results; Hospitalizations almost 60,000 -The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,304,873 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 118,497 positive tests. This is a Monday reporting record. Almost 8,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.  Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged. However, it is likely that hospitalizations will be at a new high tomorrow. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

US surpasses 1 million new COVID cases in first 10 days of November -The United States has officially surpassed 1 million new cases of coronavirus within the first 10 days of November, according to The Associated Press. A total of 10,217,789 cases have been reported by Johns Hopkins University as of Tuesday. As cases continue to surge across the country, death tolls and hospitalizations are on the rise as well. Hospitals in New Jersey reported 1,133 confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases as of Nov. 2, which was the highest number reported over the last four months. Illinois and Wisconsin reported new cases reaching more than 12,000 and 7,000 in those two states, according to WCYB. A total of 239,374 deaths have been reported in the U.S. since the pandemic began. 

Hospitals see record number of Covid-19 patients as cases climb - A record number of people have been hospitalized with the coronavirus as projections indicate that the United States could see 20 million cases of Covid-19 by Christmas if the virus keeps infecting people at the current rate.The number of new cases for the three-week period ending Monday nearly doubled to 1.9 million from the previous 21-day tally of 1.07 million, an NBC News analysis of the latest figures showed. By Nov. 30, if this trend continues, the U.S. could have 13.6 million cases and by Dec. 21, that number at the current rate could climb to 19.9 million.Hospitalizations across the country have hit an all-time high as well, with 61,964 hospitalizations on Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project.  Pandemic fatigue and rising anger over having to wear masks and practice social distancing, coupled with colder weather driving people indoors where the virus is more easily spread, have created a “perfect storm” for new infections, epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said Tuesday.Osterholm, who is also on President-elect Joe Biden's Covid-19 task force, said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that he is not surprised the numbers were hitting close to 150,000 at this time. “And what I've been saying for months is -- get ready, we're going to be hitting 200,000 or more cases a day. And we have to get prepared in our hospitals for that very issue.”While a Pfizer vaccine for Covid-19 has been touted as "extraordinary" by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious diseases expert, it's not going to be rolled out until the end of December.Until then, Osterholm warned, the U.S. should brace itself for the "darkest weeks of this pandemic for us." On Monday, the U.S. set yet another daily record for new coronavirus cases with 133,819, the data showed. It was the first time the number of Covid-19 cases crossed the 130,000 threshold and the sixth day in a row that the U.S. recorded more than 100,000 cases in a day.Wisconsin on Tuesday reported 7,073 new cases and 66 deaths overnight, both dismal new records for the state. Ohio also set anew daily record Monday with 6,508 new cases. So did Michigan, with 6,473 new cases Tuesday.And there has been a surge of new Covid-19 infections in nursing homes after a seven week decline, particularly in the Midwest where the number of deaths is ticking upward, as well, theAmerican Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living reported Tuesday.

US coronavirus hospitalizations hit new peak -  The number of hospitalizations from the coronavirus pandemic in the United States reached 61,964 as of Tuesday evening, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Also on Monday, the seven-day average of daily deaths in the US surpassed 1,000 for the first time since August 22. Both statistics demonstrate that the coronavirus is rampaging uncontrolled across the country, while the US ruling elite continues to send workers back to infected factories, offices and schools. The current hospitalization rate is now higher than the previous all-time high recorded in April, while the number of known new cases is more than three times what it was seven months ago. The number of coronavirus tests returning a positive result has also risen to 7.7 percent, up from 4.0 percent at the start of October, indicating that current testing measures are not fully capturing the true extent of the pandemic. Still higher numbers loom. In contrast to April, there are not even token measures in place to contain the pandemic, such as the national lockdown that covered most of that month. The policy is instead one of herd immunity, that is, the unchecked spread of the pandemic through the entire population. This was spelled out explicitly by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows in an interview on CNN last month, when he admitted, “We’re not going to control the pandemic.” Overall, there have been more than 10.5 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States, including 3.6 million that are currently active. Of those who became infected, more than 245,000 have died.

November 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations -- The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).  There were 1,069,405 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 130,989 positive tests. This is a new record. Over 9,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.2% (red line is 7 day average).  For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.  And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.  The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.  Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.    Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record.  This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

‘We’re just kind of drowning:’ Counties say they’re overwhelmed with new COVID-19 cases -  In Clark County, more COVID-19 infections are coming in than the health department can contact trace.Health Commissioner Charles Patterson said in a news release they’re simply “overwhelmed” with cases, and those in the backlog will receive a packet of information about their diagnosis and educational materials.Kyle Trout, a department public information officer, said they’re receiving about 80 new cases per day, compared to the 50 they can handle. The logjam spans about 300 cases.“All across the state, we’re seeing record numbers,” he said. “I don’t think people understand health departments are working seven days a week, sometimes 12-hour days. We’re just kind of drowning.”On Tuesday, Ohio smashed its one-day records for new cases (6,508), new hospitalizations (386), total number of people currently hospitalized (2,747), and positivity rate (11% on Monday).More than 300 Ohioans with COVID-19 are breathing with the assistance of a mechanical ventilator, the most at any point during the pandemic.All told, 5,547 Ohioans have died from COVID-19; more than 21,000 have been hospitalized; more than 261,000 have been infected.The new case downpour extends statewide.Preble County Public Health issued a news release warning that the caseload has outgrown the department’s tracing abilities. The department is advising residents to act as their own contact tracers and notify their places of employment, worship, school, gym, etc.“We’re still pretty swamped,” said Preble Health Commissioner Erik Balster in an interview Tuesday. “It’s only gotten worse as the weeks have gone on, as far as our backlog.”In Knox County, Health Commissioner Julie Miller issued public health orders that “limit gatherings of any size;” recommend that anyone who can work from home do so; and compel businesses to enforce mask wearing from employees and customers.The department also ordered a preschool to close due to staff and student infections.“Nine months into the pandemic, we have let our guard down,” she said in a news release. “People are not wearing masks. They are not social distancing. As a community, we need to take of one another. It’s time to step up and mask up.”On Monday, hospital executives and the Ohio Department of Health’s chief medical officer hosted a news conference warning of a growing staffing strain as more and more caregivers are infected with COVID-19. If the trendlines don’t change, they warned,Ohio’s hospitals will have to restrict non-essential services.

Hospitalizations soar as virus cuts through Missouri and Kansas uncontrolled - Hospitalizations of patients with COVID-19 are soaring in the state of Missouri as the virus cuts through the population uncontrolled. The state of Missouri reported 4,256 cases on Tuesday and 146 new deaths. The state does not mandate masks in bars and restaurants. According to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, every county in the state has a testing positivity rate between 7 percent and 28 percent, with 16 counties over 20 percent and another 5 counties reporting 19 percent. The Missouri Hospital Association (MHA) reported multiple forms of strain on the state’s health care infrastructure, in addition to thousands of COVID-19 patients, including staffing shortages, “seasonal increases for respiratory and other illnesses” and “pent-up demand from the spring pandemic-related shutdowns.” MHA spokesman Dave Dillon expressed concern about hospital capacity, resources and staffing, “If we continue to have these high rates, we are going to have this continued demand on the resource, and it’s going to be very difficult to build out capacity.” Hospitalizations again hit another high Tuesday at 2,055 across the state, and some St. Louis-area hospitals are postponing elective procedures. In St. Louis and in the central part of the state, hospitals are reporting the largest number of patients since April. On November 6, the MHA reported more than 2,000 were hospitalized with COVID-19. Columbia-area hospitals report being near capacity. Jefferson County reported record cases November 6. On that date the county had a positivity rate of 23 percent and a total of 7,318 cases. This recent outbreak was traced to three Halloween parties held in the county without social distancing measures. Rather than taking immediate and decisive action to mitigate the spread of the disease in the state, recently reelected Republican Governor Mike Parson is touting the vaccine currently in development by Pfizer, which the company recently touted as 90 percent effective, as an impending solution. Parson and his administration are using the announcement to dismiss the need for any new preventive measures and taking his reelection as an endorsement of the state government’s lethal “open for business” approach to the pandemic.

US coronavirus situation is a 'humanitarian disaster,' and the pandemic is only accelerating, experts say – CNN - The Covid-19 crisis in America is so dire now, international aid workers have arrived to help."This is a humanitarian disaster -- probably one of the worst stories I've covered in my career here at CNN," the network's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said Thursday.Workers from Doctors Without Borders are trying to help the US get a grip on the pandemic, he said. More than 241,000 people have died from coronavirus nationwide -- a number that is rapidly growing every day. "I mean, this is an organization that typically covers true disasters and medical crises all over the world," Gupta said.  "And when they sort of look at a map right now and say, 'Where do we need to be?' they pointed to the United States. They were in nursing homes in Detroit. They went to Missouri. They're in these different places trying to offer their services. And still, the numbers are what they are." The numbers are simply staggering. On Wednesday, the US recorded 1,893 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. The tally would reflect a new high since May, though it may be skewed by an outsized number from Georgia that could include backlogged deaths.More than 110,000 additional people in the US are projected to die from Covid-19 in just the next two months, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.The US has also topped 100,000 daily infections at least nine days in a row. Wednesday was the second consecutive day of record numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations.And new reports show the pandemic is only ramping up as the country approaches a critical holiday season.The White House coronavirus task force warned of "accelerating community spread across the top half of the country" in reports distributed to states this week. The panel, which last week warned of "significant deterioration in the Sunbelt," said that has led to the "most diffuse spread experienced to date." A separate forecast from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Policy Lab projects conditions will worsen in the West Coast, the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states over the next several weeks. Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and ventilator use are rising in every single state, the lab said."In every Midwestern state, COVID-19 patients are occupying more than 25% of ICU beds," it reported.That's as the US reported the highest number of hospitalizations ever on Wednesday -- with more than 65,000 Covid-19 patients nationwide, according to the COVID Tracking Project."The nearly universal rise in statewide hospitalization rates, particularly in our colder regions, is a pattern that will grow as we move into the holiday season," the policy lab said. Some hospitals have reached full capacity and are sending patients away. And doctors are pleading for the public to get more serious about wearing masks, washing hands and physical distancing.

Some hospitals are running out of health care workers. Here's what could happen next -Imagine going to a hospital so overwhelmed, doctors and nurses with Covid-19 are allowed to keep working. Or having a heart attack and getting rushed to a hospital, only to learn there's not enough emergency care for you.These scenarios have already turned into reality. The US has more people hospitalized with Covid-19 this week than at any other point in the pandemic."The difference between what's happening now versus what happened before is that the virus is everywhere now," emergency medicine physician Dr. Leana Wen said."Before, there were just a few hot spots across the country. There were health care workers who could volunteer and go between different states," she said."But when the virus is so widespread, we could very well ... run out of health care workers, which means that patient care is going to suffer. And we will be at breaking point in our hospitals."This current onslaught of fall Covid-19 cases is the result of more indoor socializing, reopened schools and people flouting safety precautions due to pandemic fatigue, health experts say.Nationwide, 61,964 patients were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. That's the highest number since this pandemic began. "We're already seeing our hospitals at breaking point in some parts of the country. And that means it doesn't just affect patients with coronavirus," Wen said."It also means that elective surgeries are being put off for things like hip replacements, for cancer surgery or heart surgery in some cases."And the crisis is expected to get worse. The US had a record-high 136,325 new Covid-19 cases reported Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins University.And massive surges in new infections lead to more hospitalizations and deaths in the following weeks."Unfortunately, I think the statement about 'new record' is going to be repeated over and over again," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health."We have more infections now than we've had certainly since the beginning of the pandemic. And I expect that those numbers will continue to climb. Hospitalizations are going to continue to climb."

COVID-Positive Nurses Allowed to Keep Working in Virus-Swamped North Dakota - North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has amended a statewide health order to allow nurses and other health-care workers with COVID-19 to keep working amid an overwhelming surge of coronavirus cases. Hospitals are at 100 percent capacity and a major staff shortage is making it worse. Hospital administrators reportedly asked Burgum to take the extraordinary step of allowing staff with asymptomatic cases to keep working in hospitals’ COVID-19 units. Burgum outlined several other initiatives to stem the crisis like urgently hiring EMTs and paramedics to run testing sites, in order to free up nurses to work in overrun hospitals instead. On Tuesday, health officials said 30 residents died in the preceding 24 hours—the state’s deadliest day of the pandemic. Non-coronavirus hospital admissions are also rising, likely due to people deferring health-care earlier in the pandemic.

 Ohio governor warns hospitals could be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases in 'a few short weeks' - Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) warned on Wednesday that the state’s hospitals could be overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases in “just a few short weeks.” As cases rise in every state in the nation, DeWine painted a stark picture in an address to residents, saying hospitals may not end up having enough staff to handle the coming winter. He said hospitals “are functioning right now … as if at the peak of the flu season” which usually comes in January, but currently do not see an end in sight. “It is taking an enormous human toll on our health care workers,” the governor said. “Our health care workers are quite frankly exhausted,” he continued. “They’ve been running a marathon for nine months straight, and with this new wave and the onset of flu season, it’s like they’re starting the race all over again.” DeWine cautioned that “if we don’t change this,” Ohio hospitals will not be able to adequately give emergency care and other “important, but less urgent care.” “Make no mistake, if nothing changes, this all could happen in just a few short weeks,” he said. Ohio has been seeing a steady increase in new COVID-19 cases since the beginning of October. The state recorded its most new cases in a single day on Tuesday, with 6,508 new cases, according to the COVID Tracking Project. The project's data shows cases have more than quadrupled in the past month. Facilities have also reached a new high of 2,747 current hospitalizations, triple the amount since Oct. 11. In his address, DeWine said the state will have to close restaurants, bars and fitness centers “one week from tomorrow” if “the current trend continues.” The U.S. reported 136,000 new cases of COVID-19 Tuesday, a record high

November 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations --  The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,134,101 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 144,270 positive tests. This is a new record. Almost 11,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.7% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.  And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.   Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

Indiana reports record 6,654 new coronavirus cases, 51 additional deaths — The Indiana State Department of Health (ISDH) reported a record of 6,654 more positive coronavirus cases and 51 additional confirmed COVID-19 deaths Thursday. The latest ISDH dashboard data indicates the state’s 7-day all-test positivity rate of 10.5%, with a cumulative rate of 6.4% positive. As of November 8, the ISDH County Metric map shows 5 counties in Yellow, 78 in Orange and 9 in Red. The weekly score is determined by each county’s Weekly Cases Per 100,000 residents and its 7-Day All Test Positivity Rate. The latest hospitalization numbers show 2,569 total COVID-19 patients – 2065 confirmed and 504 under investigation. ISDH says 22.3% of ICU beds and 75.6% of ventilators are available across the state. For complete statistics reported by ISDH, including total tests administered and demographic data, visit Coronavirus.In.Gov.

Kansas reports record new coronavirus cases: 6,282 on Friday  Kansas on Friday reported a record 6,282 new COVID-19 cases in the state since Wednesday.It was the first report to hit the 6,000 mark since the Kansas Department of Health and Environment started reporting on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays in mid-May. The previous high was 5,920 cases reported Monday. The new cases and 41 new reported deaths brought the state’s total to 115,507 cases and 1,256 deaths. It also brought the average total of daily cases during the past week to 2,553. Kansas averaged 13 deaths a day over the past week.The daily cases and deaths have been trending up since the new reporting days in mid-May, when there were 100-plus cases a day and an average of a couple of deaths a day.November has also had the percent of positive cases skyrocket. It is at 20.2% so far in November. April had a high of 13.9% followed by October’s 9.5%.

Daily coronavirus cases top 15,000 in Illinois for the first time, setting a record for the fourth straight day - With Illinois reporting more than 15,000 new confirmed and probable cases of the coronavirus for the first time Friday, the state’s top public health official urged residents to “step up” and take personal responsibility for slowing the spread of the virus. “If we keep doing everything we’re doing and not changing, no measure that we can do at the state level is … going to allow us to have an effect,” Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said during a daily COVID-19 briefing. “Everybody’s saying, 'What are we going to do?’ — What are you going to do?” Ezike said. “Individuals need to take the responsibility to control this virus. And I’m really looking for people to step up and stop looking for somebody else to do the job that we individually have the power to do.” The state reported 15,415 COVID-19 cases Friday, setting a record for the fourth straight day and jumping by more than 2,700 cases, or more than 21%, from Thursday. Over the past week, the state is averaging 12,345 cases of COVID-19 per day. The staggering number of new cases comes after Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Cook County public health officials all have urged residents to stay home except for essential trips, such as grocery shopping or going to the pharmacy. Pritzker warned Thursday that the state could be headed for another mandatory stay-at-home order if the current surge of the virus doesn’t come under control.State health officials also reported 27 more fatalities Friday, bringing the statewide death toll to 10,504 since the pandemic began. While there were fewer deaths reported Friday than in recent days, the state has averaged 61 deaths per day over the past week, up from 41 at the beginning of the month.

Ohio sees another record spike with 8,071 coronavirus cases in 24 hours (WJW)– The Ohio Department of Health said 8,071 coronavirus cases were reported in the last 24 hours. That’s the highest daily total since the beginning of the pandemic and breaks the previous record set Thursday by nearly 1,000. There were also 42 more deaths, 298 additional hospitalizations and 21 new intensive care unit admissions. According to the state health department, there have been 282,528 total confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19, and 5,700 deaths in Ohio. It is presumed that 197,674 have recovered. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine did not hold a coronavirus news conference on Friday. During his media availability on Thursday, he warned of another shutdown if trends don’t improve. “We don’t want another shutdown. We can all avoid a shutdown if we are very careful. This is within our control. We don’t have to let it get that bad. We don’t have to let it get to the point where hospitals are full. We all have it in our power to prevent this,” DeWine said. Under the latest map from the Ohio Public Health Advisory System, 68 of the state’s 88 counties are in the red level, meaning very high exposure and spread.

Michigan reports over 8,500 coronavirus cases for daily record, 118 deaths - Amid a major surge in coronavirus infections, Michigan confirmed 118 virus-related deaths Friday and a new daily record of 8,516 new cases of COVID-19. Friday's death count included 83 older deaths that were confirmed as COVID-related during a review of vital records, state health officials said. These deaths might have occurred days or weeks ago. The state had its fifth consecutive week of breaking records for weekly cases, with doubling every two- to two and a half weeks. Michigan has reported 36,947 cases Sunday through Friday, even before Saturday's report. The previous weekly high of confirmed cases was set last week at 29,614. Single-day spikes in COVID cases have sometimes been attributed to a backlog in labs processing tests, but the state was not aware of any backlog that resulted in Friday's large number of new cases being reported. "Unfortunately, this is a continuation of the very concerning spike in cases, deaths and hospitalizations," said Bob Wheaton, spokesman for the Michigan health department. "We continue to ask people to wear masks, physically distance, wash their hands frequently and avoid indoor gatherings with people from outside their households."

Wisconsin coronavirus: State tops 300,000 total cases, adds 7,777 more -It took more than seven months for Wisconsin to record its first 100,000 coronavirus cases, then only 36 days to notch the second 100,000.On Friday, just 18 days later, the state hit its third 100,000.The milestone came as Wisconsin reported yet another daily case record, its coronavirus crisis continuing to spiral out of control.The state Department of Health Services on Friday reported 7,777 new cases as well as 58 deaths, bringing the death toll to 2,573.The average number of new daily cases over the last seven days reached a new high of 6,442.Case counts have grown at breakneck speed in recent days. The seven-day average has jumped more than 1,300 in the last week and increased 460% over the last two months. As the U.S. contends with its third, and worst, wave of the virus — reporting a record153,000 new cases Thursday — Wisconsin's crisis ranks among the worst. The state's seven-day case average is the fourth-highest in the nation, according toNew York Times data, behind Illinois, Texas and California — states with populations several times Wisconsin's. And five metropolitan or micropolitan areas in Wisconsin make the Times' list of the top 20 areas with the greatest number of new cases on a population-adjusted basis: Beaver Dam, Wausau-Weston, Fond du Lac, Eau Claire and Sheboygan. "The pandemic has worsened across the country over the last two months, but perhaps nowhere as quickly as in Wisconsin," reads a New York Times report analyzing the hardest-hit locations. Wisconsin's average positivity rate hit a new high of 36.2% Friday. Of major concern to health experts are surging hospitalizations and deaths from the virus. Both measures have seen massive increases in recent weeks as a direct result of high case counts weeks earlier.Because cases have continued to rise since then and show no sign of slowing down, hospitalization and death numbers are expected to worsen. As of Friday, there were 2,045 people hospitalized with the virus, including 435 patients in intensive care units. The ICU count is at an all-time high.

Minnesota reports record 1,424 COVID-19 hospitalizations -  Minnesota reported a record 1,424 COVID-19 hospitalizations on Friday, and an additional 46 people have died from the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus — the second highest one-day total in Minnesota. Of the 1,424 hospitalized with COVID-19, 293 were in intensive care. All told, 2,839 Minnesotans have died of the virus since last spring. In an effort to stem the coronavirus’ reach as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, new restrictions on bars, restaurants and private gatherings begin Friday. The Minnesota Department of Health reported Friday 5,552 new cases of COVID-19 with a total of 207,339 Minnesotans have been diagnosed with the virus since last spring. The previous one-day record was 56 deaths reported on Wednesday. People at a new saliva testing center for COVID in the Minneapolis Convention Center drop saliva samples into a collection box Monday in Minneapolis. ] DAVID JOLES • david.joles@startribune.com More Of the deaths reported Friday, 33 were in long-term care and assisted-living facilities, 12 were in private residences, and one was in a group home, according to Health Department data. Some 3.3 million tests have been completed through Minnesota, as the state rolls out more testing sites. And on Thursday, Health Department officials said people ages 18 and 35 should seek testing right away, regardless of whether they’re exhibiting symptoms of the virus. The Health Department has ramped up testing across the state, opening the ninth PCR (polymerase chain reaction) saliva test site at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Thursday. .

Minnesota's deadliest week in pandemic leaves 248 dead - The deadliest week of the COVID-19 pandemic in Minnesota closed Friday with the governor and top health officials predicting the pandemic will get much worse in coming weeks, especially as the holiday season draws near. "Emotionally, this is getting very hard. We've lost 248 Minnesotans [to COVID-19] over the last seven days," Gov. Tim Walz said on Friday. "We are headed toward a deep, dark winter." Surviving the dire days of the outbreak will involve a collective effort of masking up, social distancing, relying on an expanded network of testing sites throughout the state and avoiding social gatherings. These precautions could help bridge the gap until a vaccine is available, likely in the first quarter of 2021, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "If we could hold out until then it would save so many lives and avoid so much suffering," said Osterholm, who joined Walz and others for a press briefing Friday. In the meantime, the Minnesota Department of Health reported a record 1,424 COVID-19 hospitalizations on Friday, and an additional 46 people have died from the rapidly spreading virus — the second highest one-day total in Minnesota. The previous single-­day record was 56 deaths reported on Wednesday. All told, 2,839 Minnesotans have died of the virus since spring. The Health Department also reported 5,552 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday and a total of 207,339 cases since spring. The trajectory is heading in the wrong direction, Walz noted. "It took us seven months, about 27 weeks, to reach 100,000 [COVID-19] cases in Minnesota," the governor said. "It took seven weeks, a little short of two months, to reach 200,000 cases. It will take us less than three weeks to reach 300,000."

Colorado COVID-19 cases hit new high; Polis shares hospital surge plan - Colorado set a new single-day case record of 6,439 cases reported in the last 24 hours, Polis said during a Friday news conference. As of Friday morning, 1,159 people were hospitalized in Colorado for COVID-19. Polis again reminded those watching Friday's news conference that Colorado has a higher level of coronavirus in the community now than it did in March. "These are our darkest days as a nation," Polis said. "These are our darkest days as a state."The worst-case scenario, which state health officials say they are working to avoid, is the state doesn't have enough hospital beds, staff or equipment to help those who need it, Polis said.Polis said he will be signing an executive order that clarifies the order of operations for dealing with surges in hospitalizations. Many hospitals have already made these plans, but Polis said the order will provide a state-level organized response. The executive order will outline the following steps hospitals should take if and when they have surges:

1. Hospitals should first increase internal capacity by opening unused space in the building and augmenting staffing. If further capacity is needed, they must scale back their elective procedures. A potential moratorium on elective procedures, as there was earlier in the pandemic, remains "on the table," Polis said. 
2. If hospitalizations continue to surge, hospitals can utilize the interhospital transfer system to send patients to other hospitals that do have space, Polis said.
3. The last resort would be to utilize one of the the three remaining alternative care sites set up statewide: The Colorado Convention Center in Denver; St. Mary-Corwin Medical Center in Pueblo; and St. Anthony North Family Medicine in Westminster.

"We are prepared to activate (the alternative care sites) if necessary, and we are a lot closer to that today than we were two weeks ago or we were four weeks ago," Polis said.

Colorado prepares for hospital bed, staff shortages as COVID-19 spreads unchecked – Colorado is preparing for the third wave of the pandemic to fill the state’s hospitals to capacity, a scenario Gov. Jared Polis said is becoming increasingly likely as new coronavirus infections continue to set daily records. The Colorado Hospital Association activated the state’s Combined Hospital Transfer Center for the first time Friday as some facilities in the state reported concerns about running out of staff or hitting patient capacity amid soaring COVID-19 hospitalizations. The governor outlined how the state is planning for hospitals to deal with exceeding their capacity during a news briefing Friday, including raising the possibility of a moratorium on elective surgeries if facilities continue to fill. “We know that if our health care system is overwhelmed due to the increase in cases and growing hospitalizations then people will die who could have been saved,” Polis said. “The worst case scenario, which it is our goal to avoid, and we will continue to struggle to do so, is that so many Coloradans are sick that there’s not enough beds or staff or equipment and as a result more Coloradans will lose their life,” he added. “This was the reason for the strong actions in March.” The announcement that hospitals are preparing for a surge came during a week that local public officials have said that they can no longer contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. They also have asked state leaders, including at the Department of Public Health and Environment, to implement stricter interventions to stem the transmission of COVID-19. Still, Polis remains reluctant to impose tougher restrictions, including a statewide lockdown. The governor, who was asked repeatedly during the news briefing about a stay-at-home order, has instead encouraged Coloradans to stay home and only interact with those in their households. If people decide to join their family and friends outside of their household for Thanksgiving feasts, then they should quarantine for 14 days beforehand to reduce the risk of transmitting the virus to loved ones, Polis said.

New York tops 5,000 daily COVID-19 cases for the first time since April - New York on Friday reported 5,000 new coronavirus cases — a figure not seen since April, near the height of the pandemic — as the United States as a whole battles a record number of infections. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) said on Twitter that the figure represents a 2.65 percent positive rate of coronavirus infections in the Empire State. There are currently 1,737 people hospitalized in New York due to COVID-19, Cuomo said, while 24 people in the state died on Thursday due to the disease. A press secretary for Cuomo noted that the positive diagnoses were among more than 200,000 test results reported to the state on Thursday, a record number of daily tests performed. “COVID is raging nationally, setting record numbers of cases and hospitalizations with each passing day," Cuomo said in a statement. “While New York is doing better than just about any state in the United States, we are not immune from the national trend. Now it's up to what we do. There is no pre-destined future here. It's a pure consequence of our actions.” After being an initial epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S. back in the early months of the pandemic, the Empire State managed to get their numbers under control, with many health experts hailing the state as a model of effective coronavirus control measures. In recent months, however, the rate of coronavirus cases in New York has been steadily increasing despite Cuomo enacting stricter regulation. In September, the state’s daily record was 1,000 — 4,000 fewer cases per day than it is currently experiencing. New York's spiking COVID-19 cases come as the rest of the United States is also experiencing an upward trend. On Thursday, the United States recorded more than 152,000 coronavirus infections, setting a new daily record.

November 13 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Record Hospitalizations --The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,383,088 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 170,333 positive tests. This is a new record.  Over 13,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.  The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.3% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.   Now, there are many more tests, and many cases are being detected earlier - so hospitalizations have lagged.   Hospitalizations are now at a new record. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

At least 5 passengers on first Caribbean cruise in months tests positive for COVID-19 - At least five people who were aboard the first Caribbean cruise ship in months tested positive for COVID-19, according to a CNN report. NBC reported earlier on Wednesday that a passenger tested positive for the virus, citing a report from Gene Sloan, a reporter for the website The Points Guy who was on the ship. Sloan said the captain announced that the passenger aboard SeaDream 1 tested positive on a “preliminary basis.” NBC noted it was not clear what "preliminary basis" means. Sloan said that all passengers were asked to return to their cabins to isolate and that the ship's crew was also isolating. The Hill has reached out to SeaDream Yacht Club, which owns the ship, for comment. SeaDream 1 is the first cruise vessel to begin sailing in the Caribbean since March when the coronavirus was declared a pandemic. Coronavirus cases are now skyrocketing across the U.S., raising alarms as people move inside to escape the colder weather. There were 53 passengers and 66 crew members onboard SeaDream 1 at the time the announcement was made, according to Sloan. Every passenger on board had to test negative for the virus several days prior to boarding and again on the day of boarding. Another round of testing was conducted Wednesday when the passenger tested positive. The ship left Barbados on Saturday and had traveled to Saint Vincent, Canouan Island, and Tobago Cays, according to Sloan. Passengers had not come into contact with island locals, he wrote. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention first barred cruise sailing in mid-March, and renewed the order in April and July. It later lifted the order to allow “simulation” cruises to sail in the U.S. Cruise ships proved to be dangerous for the spread of the coronavirus after hundreds aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan contracted the virus in February. Several ships docked outside U.S. waters ran into similar issues before cases started escalating in the U.S. 

 As COVID-19 surges around the world, governments put profits ahead of lives - This weekend, the world hit 50 million reported cases of COVID-19, and deaths surpassed 1.25 million, as the Americas and Europe faced the worst stage of the pandemic to date. In France and Italy, hospitals are once again overwhelmed, prompting them to transfer patients to nearby countries, including Germany. On Saturday, France logged a record 86,852 cases. Photos and video have circulated of the hallways of Italian hospitals crammed with people on ventilators, with some even lying on hospital floors, as the country’s health system is stretched to the brink. On Saturday, Italy’s health ministry reported 39,811 new coronavirus infections over 24 hours, the country’s highest daily tally. The total number of deaths related to the virus has reached over 41,000 in the country.The United States logged record daily new cases on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, reaching over 132,000. The daily new case count in the US is now higher than the total number of COVID-19 cases in China during the entire pandemic. The average number of daily new cases in America has surged by a staggering 30 percent over the past week. Nineteen states are reporting a record number of people hospitalized with COVID-19, and 43 states are reporting rising cases. This includes states in the country’s rural heartland, where health care systems are chronically underfunded. Texas now has more cases than any other state, with over one million. The Department of Defense sent three emergency medical teams to El Paso, and the city has set up temporary emergency medical facilities to buttress its inundated hospitals. The US now has 10 million COVID-19 cases, or one fifth of the world’s total, and nearly a quarter million people are dead. Epidemiologists have warned that the death toll could rise to up to 400,000 by the end of the year. Last March, governments were forced to temporarily close non-essential businesses after spontaneous walkouts by workers in auto plants and other facilities. But amid the latest wave of the pandemic, which is far worse, governments have made clear that they will not close schools or factories. While France, Britain, and Germany have implemented minor restrictions, including closing bars and gyms, they have not taken any measures to close schools or shut down production in non-essential manufacturing facilities. In the United States, the Trump administration has openly embraced the doctrine of “herd immunity,” which holds that the spread of the pandemic is a positive good and that governments should do nothing to stop it. 

Is Denmark about to export a more dangerous form of COVID-19? -- Denmark is famous for its exports of cheese and pork. Less known is the country's role as the world's largest producer of mink skins and therefore, not surprisingly, the "global hub for the fur trade." Unfortunately for the minks and the mink industry, the Danish government has now pledged to kill every mink in Denmark is order to eradicate a mutant strain of COVID-19 carried by mink that is transmissible to humans. That would mean dispatching some 17 million animals in short order.  Why are the Danes so panicked? Because this mutant strain "is not readily stopped by antibodies to the dominant strain of the virus." That could mean that vaccines currently being developed for this dominant strain will be of little or no value in treating people with the mutant strain.  The number of human cases so far is small, 12 cases in workers on one farm.  It is worth remembering that on February 26 this year, President Trump told the public that there were only 15 cases in the United States, that drastic steps to contain the virus such as shutdowns were not yet necessary and that "15 [cases] within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero." By the end of March, much of the country was in a state of emergency as infections were skyrocketing.  The broader truth is that many, but not all, advanced countries were caught by surprise by the rapid advance of the virus. While the Danish response to the mink outbreak and its attendant human infections may seem extreme, such aggressive action is likely to be the only thing that will stop the mutant strain. The Danish government is also placing extraordinary restrictions on the residents of North Jutland where the outbreak occurred.  We can wish the Danes success in their attempts to eradicate this mutant strain of COVID-19. But I do not think we can be assured that another such mutant strain won't arise elsewhere or that this strain hasn't already made its way beyond the Danish border.  As the worldwide pandemic lays bare all of the weaknesses of our modern way of life, we have an opportunity to rethink our relationship with the natural world. The first adjustment should be to accept that we are indeed a part of that world, that is, we are organisms in an environment just like every other organism.

France and Italy report record cases as virus ravages Europe. As winter approaches, Europe is struggling with a brutal resurgence of the virus, one that, along with the U.S. surge, has helped push the global case count over 50 million, according to aNew York Times database. France and Italy have reported record daily case totals in recent days as both countries have moved to lock down some regions.In Italy, where the devastation of the first wave in the spring looms large, 39,809 new coronavirus cases were reported on Saturday, a new daily record. Its daily average has increased by 119 percent over the past two weeks.Deaths in Italy have increased by a staggering 232 percent over the past two weeks, with 425 deaths reported on Saturday.Arno Kompatscher, the governor of Italy’s Bolzano Province, known for its ski resorts, moved on Sunday to lock down the area, limiting travel and closing most nonessential stores and in-person dining.Bolzano’s “red zone” restrictions add it to the list of Italian regions under strict lockdown; Valle d’Aosta, Piedmont and Lombardy — home to Milan — are also under shutdowns.France reported a record 60,486 new cases on Friday and 40,439 on Saturday. While the daily average there has risen by 57 percent over the past two weeks, deaths have increased by 170 percent in the same period. On Sunday, nine of the 10 countries with the highest average daily case totals per person were in Europe, including the Czech Republic (third highest), Switzerland (fourth highest) and France (eighth highest), according to a Times database.

Coronavirus pandemic spreads in France despite partial lockdown policies - In the face of the delayed and insufficient confinement measures implemented by the Macron administration, with schools and non-essential industries open, the coronavirus pandemic is continuing to spread outside of control in France. In a press conference Monday, health director Jérôme Salomon warned that the “peak” remained “ahead of us,” and “the second wave is continuing.” He reported another 551 deaths in the previous 24 hours, bringing the total to 40,987. There are now 4,539 people in urgent care beds, up from 3,730 only one week ago. The total capacity of urgent care beds, assuming that other critical operations are cancelled or delayed to free space, is 7,500 nationally. Another 38,619 new cases were recorded Monday, when figures are always artificially suppressed due to lower testing on the weekend. On Saturday, due to an accumulation of uncounted cases from previous days, almost 90,000 cases were reported. Friday marked a new daily record of almost 60,000 cases, which per capita would be equivalent to almost 300,000 daily cases in the United States. The rolling seven-day average of cases in France is now almost 42,000. The average death rate over the last seven days in hospital is 364. The spread of the pandemic is an exposure of the criminal policies pursued by the ruling class in France and across Europe. At the end of spring, governments forced workers back to work in order to reopen the economy and boost corporate profits. Across Europe, a race took place as to who could most rapidly dismantle all precautions. The second wave of curfews and partial lockdowns were both deliberately delayed and insufficient to contain the renewed upsurge. Measures to combat the epidemic have been calibrated to minimize any impact on economic activity and corporate profits. Serious measures in late August to early September, before the school and university system was reopened, could still have been effective. The French government made the conscious decision to allow the pandemic to develop out of control.

Coronavirus infections in Germany hit a new record - The number of reported new coronavirus infections in Germany reached a record level on Saturday with 23,399 cases, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). The previous record of the day before was exceeded again by about 2,000 cases. The number of fatalities rose by 130 and now stands at 11,226. The situation in hospitals, and especially in intensive care units, is becoming more dramatic day by day. As of Saturday, 2,839 patients were receiving intensive medical care. Exactly one month earlier, the figure had been 470. According to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care (DIVI) register, the number of patients requiring ventilation rose from 233 to 1,534 during the same period. Doctors assume that intensive care bed capacity will be exhausted by the beginning of next month, at the latest. A concrete forecast is difficult to make, as many beds are reported as available, but there are no staff available to manage them. On average, five nurses are needed per intensive care bed. The German Foundation for Patient Protection has expressed doubts that the correct number of available beds is being reported by hospitals. It is feared that hospitals report an appreciable number of beds as available, for which no nursing staff are available, reported Tagesschau. A total of 642,488 infections have now been registered in Germany. At the end of September, Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) had warned that there could be 19,200 new infections per day by Christmas. This figure was already exceeded in October. Most recently, Merkel had to warn of a collapse of intensive care bed provision in Germany given the latest infection figures. Laboratories are now increasingly overloaded with test evaluations. The RKI had reported a backlog of around 99,000 samples in 69 laboratories by November 1; two weeks earlier, it was around 21,000 in 52 laboratories. According to the RKI, an increasing number of laboratories reported they had reached the limits of their capacity in recent weeks..

Record cases in Portugal, Russia and Sweden: COVID-19 daily bulletin - CGTN

• - Switzerland has begun a rolling review of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine candidate, so it can give it a speedy approval should it pass muster in clinical trials.
• - Hospitals are under pressure in Portugal as confirmed coronavirus cases in pushed past the 200,000 mark on Friday and the number of new daily infections reached a record high.
• - Restrictions aimed at slowing a surge in coronavirus cases will be extended in several Italian regions, with both Tuscany and Campania set to be designated as high-risk "red zones."
• - Austria will announce the closure of schools and tighten contact restrictions on Saturday, though its retail sector is likely to remain open.
• - Sweden has registered 5,990 new cases in the past 24 hours, the highest since the start of the pandemic, and 42 new deaths, according to its health ministry.
• - France will not lift its tough new COVID-19 measures for the next two weeks, despite a decline in cases for the fifth successive day. "It would be irresponsible to soften the lockdown now," Prime Minister Jean Castex said. Hospital admissions for the virus are at an all-time high in the country, which has 1.86 million coronavirus cases, the most in Europe.
• - Italy has recorded 636 virus-related deaths over the past 24 hours – its highest daily figure since April 6. The total number of new infections also rose by more than 5,000 to 37,978.
• - Portugal has announced an expansion of a nightly curfew and weekend lockdown already in place across more than 100 municipalities to a further 77 areas. Residents in affected areas must not leave the house except for work, school or shopping during the week, and must stay home between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m..
• - COVID-19 cases in Czechia continue to fall after health ministry data reported 7,874 new daily infections in the past 24 hours, 5,358 fewer than the same time a week ago. The country is seeking to push down Europe's highest per-capita infection rate.
• - Thursday was the deadliest day during the pandemic so far, with 11,617 fatalities worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was also a record, at more than 666,000 in a day.
• - Russia has reported a record 21,983 new coronavirus infections in the past 24 hours. Moscow has ordered bars, restaurants and nightclubs to close between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. from Friday until mid-January.
• - Restaurants, bars and shopping malls in Catalonia, Spain, will remain closed for at least another 10 days, with a gradual return to open-air activities on terraces planned from November 23. Meanwhile, the Spanish government is considering extending its scheme of state-backed credit beyond December to support the battered hospitality sector.
• - People across Europe are being warned it is too early to plan for Christmas travel. Sweden has said it may introduce travel restrictions and Irish and French authorities said it was too soon to tell if people could make travel arrangements.

UK deaths rise by 563 – as it happened -  Nearly 67,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, the latest figures from the UK’s statistics agencies show. These are separate from the figures gathered by the UK government, which only take into account deaths from Covid-19 where a person has died within 28 days of a positive test (see8.05pm.).According to the most recent reports from the Office for National Statistics, the National Records of Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, a total of 63,317 deaths have so far been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. But since those figures were compiled, a further 3,195 deaths are known to have occurred in England, plus 33 in Scotland, 220 in Wales and 110 in Northern Ireland, according to additional data published on the UK government’s coronavirus dashboard. Together, these totals mean that so far there have been 66,875 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK. Here is a recap of the main developments from the last few hours:

• Portugal announced an expansion of a nightly curfew and weekend lockdown already in place across more than 100 municipalities to a further 77 areas as it scrambles to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
• The Chicago mayor, Lori Lightfoot, issued a 30-day advisory telling residents to stay at home and not to have visitors in the home, including for Thanksgiving. If residents travel out of the state, they must quarantine for 14 days or submit a negative virus test, she said.
• Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government has agreed to extend Covid-19 restrictions for between one and two weeks, falling short of stricter measures demanded by Irish nationalist parties. The five-party power-sharing executive agreed the reopening of cafes and close-contact services such as hairdressers will be delayed by a week and the reopening of bars and restaurants serving alcohol will be delayed by two weeks.
• Italy recorded 636 Covid-related deaths over the past 24 hours – its highest daily figure since 6 April. The number of new infections also rose by more than 5,000 compared with Wednesday – up from 32,961 to 37,978. The northern region of Lombardy remains the hardest-hit area.
• France’s lockdown is to last for at least two more weeks, with the number of people in hospital infected by the coronavirus now higher than at the peak of the first wave, the prime minister, Jean Castex, told a news conference. He said that if the current slowdown in the rate of new cases was maintained, France would pass the peak of the second wave early next week but that if the spread of infections began to accelerate he would not hesitate to impose stricter measures.
• Iran’s death toll from the coronavirus has risen above 40,000 after 457 more fatalities were recorded in the past 24 hours. The number of people who have died from Covid in Iran, which has the highest death count in the Middle East, now stands at 40,121.
• A senior health department official in Delhi has said that Diwali, starting on 14 November, could be “a super spreader event”. India has so far reported about 8.6 million coronavirus infections – the world’s second highest after the US – and 127,571 deaths. But overall, it has been adding fewer cases daily since a mid-September peak, and its fatality figure of 92 per million people is well below the world’s tally of 160 and the US’s 711.

Italy registers 550 more deaths; record daily cases in Germany, Sweden and Russia – as it happened - The regions of Italy that include the cities of Naples and Florencewere declared coronavirus red zones on Friday, Associated Press reports, in the latest sign of the dire condition of Italian hospitals struggling with a surge of new admissions.The director of the National Health Institute, Gianni Rezza, said the stricter measures were justified by a “worrisome increase in hospitalisations” as Italy’s rate of new confirmed cases reached650 per 100,000 people. Confirmed cases hit a daily pandemic high of nearly 41,000 and 550 people died of the virus in 24 hours, bringing the country’s known death toll to 44,139. Italy has reported a total of more than 1.1m virus cases.Naples hospitals made headlines this week when a video that went viral showed an elderly man lying dead on the floor of an emergency room bathroom. The video, shot with a smartphone inside Antonio Cardarelli hospital also showed what appears to be an overcrowded emergency area with patients lying on stretchers close together and left without medical assistance.In the red zones people cannot leave their homes apart from for work, health or emergency reasons.Sweden remains steadfast in its strategy of voluntary measures and no lockdowns, the architect of its unorthodox Covid-19 response said on Friday, as the country experienced a record number of daily infections, Reuters reports.More than 6,000 Swedes have died in the country of 10 million people. Its soft-touch approach to combating the virus has drawn worldwide attention - and harsh domestic criticism from some - and there has been a surge in the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in recent weeks.At 5,990, the number of new cases reported on Friday was the highest since the start of the pandemic. A further 42 deaths were also recorded, the most for around three months. The strategy, however, will not change.“No, we will keep on this path,” the chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, told Reuters in a telephone interview on Friday. “This is how we work in Sweden. We have big understanding for this and a huge adherence to the rules.”In contrast to many other countries, Sweden has kept schools, restaurants and other businesses open throughout the pandemic. Instead, it has focused on voluntary measures aimed at promoting social distancing and good hygiene, such as working from home if possible, avoiding public transport and crowded indoor activities.While Sweden’s death rate per capita is lower than in countries such as Spain and Britain, it is more than 10 times higher than neighbouring Norway and almost five times higher than in Denmark. The world suffered the worst day of the pandemic so far.According to Johns Hopkins University, 11,617 people died and more than 666,000 new cases were recorded in 24 hours; the largest such figures on record.

 Over 300,000 coronavirus deaths in Europe: Capitalism’s crime against humanity - This week, as the coronavirus continued to surge out of control, Europe marked the grim milestone of more than 300,000 COVID-19 deaths. Virtually every European country now faces a resurgence of the virus that threatens once again to overwhelm health care systems and kill hundreds of thousands. In Italy, the country hardest hit when the virus reached the continent, identical scenes to those that occurred just eight months ago are playing out. Yesterday, another 636 people died, up from 623 the day before and the highest number since April. The total number of infections in the country surpassed one million on Tuesday, and the total number of dead is now 43,589. The country’s hospital system is on the verge of collapse. By Wednesday, coronavirus patients made up more than 50 percent of patients in nine out of 21 provinces. The share of COVID-19 patients had reached 75 percent in Lombardy, 92 percent in Piedmont and 99 percent in South Tyrol. Ambulances are queuing up outside hospitals across the country due to a lack of available beds. Unlike the first wave, when the pandemic was largely confined to the north, the virus has already overwhelmed a number of regions in the poorer south. In Naples, a 78-year-old woman waited for 26 hours in an ambulance before being admitted to a hospital this week. A video was widely shared online reportedly showing a patient lying dead in a bathroom of a hospital ward. Over the weekend, nurses at Naples’ Catugno hospital provided oxygen treatment to patients sitting in their cars. “We are very close to not keeping up. I cannot say when we will reach the limit, but that day is not far off,” Dr. Luca Cabrini, who runs the intensive care ward at Varese’s Circolo Hospital, told the Associated Press. Leoluca Orlando, the mayor of Palermo, warned that his city and the rest of Sicily were at risk of an “announced massacre.” In France, 425 people have died in the last 24 hours. More than 10,000 have died since the start of October, and 42,960 since the beginning of the pandemic. The 551 deaths on Monday were the most in a single day since the peak of 613 on April 6. In the Île-de-France region around Paris, more than 90 percent of urgent care beds are occupied. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the number of occupied emergency beds has reached 146 percent of official capacity, with patients now being transferred to other hospitals. The UK saw another 525 deaths on Wednesday. The official death toll maintained by the government is now over 50,000. The true figure is tens of thousands higher. The British Office of National Statistics had estimated at least 61,000 deaths as of the end of October. In Spain, there have been more than 1.4 million confirmed cases of the virus, and over 40,000 officially recorded deaths, with 356 reported in the past 24 hours. A study published this week in the open-access journal PLOS ONE reported that the average life expectancy at birth dropped by 0.9 years in Spain from 2019 to 2020 due to the pandemic. In Germany, the situation is increasingly getting out of control. As a result of the opening policy, schools have become breeding grounds for the virus. Currently, more than 300,000 students and around 30,000 teachers are in quarantine and the numbers of daily infections (21,866 on Thursday) and intensive care cases (3,186) is higher than ever. Over 1,800 patients are on ventilators struggling for their lives. In some cities and regions no free intensive care beds are left and the death toll is rising.

 Study: Pittsburgh kids near polluting sites have higher asthma rates   - Pittsburgh-area children living near steel mills, power plants and other large sources of pollution had “nearly triple” the national rate of childhood asthma, according to a new peer-reviewed study.The researchers studied over 1,200 school-age students between 2014 and 2016 in Allegheny County who lived and went to school close to large sources of pollution, like industrial sites or highways. These communities were disproportionately minority and low-income.“We actually found an alarming prevalence of asthma,” said the study’s lead author, Dr. Deborah Gentile, the medical director of Allergy and Asthma Wellness Centers. The study found children in these schools had a 22.5 percent asthma rate, nearly triple the nationwide average of 8.3 percent. Allegheny County’s overall child asthma rate is 11 percent.The group monitored air pollution levels near the schools, and found a correlation between high levels of particulate matter — tiny particles that can slip into narrow breathing passages — and asthma rates.“The asthma prevalence as well as the severity is being driven in some cases by their exposure to the pollution,” Gentile said. “We found an alarming number of kids exposed to high levels of particulate matter.”Overall, 38 percent of students lived in areas with higher levels of particulate matter than the USEPA’s standard of 12 micrograms per cubic meter, and 70 percent lived in areas with levels above the World Health Organization’s threshold of 10 micrograms per cubic meter.The schools were located near US Steel’s Clairton Coke Works and Edgar Thomson Works, Cheswick Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, DTE Energy’s now-demolished Shenango Coke Works, and the Monroeville junction of the Pennsylvania Turnpike. The study, published in the Journal of Asthma, received funding from The Heinz Endowments, which also funds The Allegheny Front.

Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy may increase blood pressure in early life -- Exposure to an urban environment characterised by high levels of air pollution and noise in areas with a high building density during the foetal period and in early childhood may contribute to higher blood pressure. This was the conclusion of a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) published in Environment International. ISGlobal is an institution supported by the "la Caixa" Foundation. Analysis of the results showed that exposure to higher levels of air pollution, particularly during the first two terms of pregnancy, was associated with higher blood pressure in childhood. Furthermore, other characteristics of the urban environment during childhood also appear to be important. High building density is associated with higher blood pressure and good urban transport connectivity is linked to lower blood pressure. "It is possible that these associations reflect how people move around in the city and may indicate that greater connectivity promotes physical activity in the population" explains ISGlobal researcher Charline Warembourg, first author of the study. Exposure to noise also appears to be associated with higher blood pressure in children. High blood pressure is one of the chief risk factors for cardiovascular disease, a condition which is currently the leading cause of death worldwide. "Numerous studies have shown that children with higher blood pressure are more likely to develop hypertension later in life," says Martine Vrijheid, study leader and director of ISGlobal's Childhood and Environment Programme. "The results of this study show how important it is to identify environmental exposures that contribute to hypertension in early life, from conception onwards."

Children exposed to tobacco smoke at home have worse heart function as adults -- The more secondhand tobacco smoke children breathe at home while growing up, the higher chance they have of developing markers of decreased heart function as adults, according to preliminary research to be presented at the American Heart Association's Scientific Sessions 2020. The meeting will be held virtually, Friday, November 13 - Tuesday, November 17, 2020, and is a premier global exchange of the latest scientific advancements, research and evidence-based clinical practice updates in cardiovascular science for health care worldwide. "We already know from previous studies that children exposed to secondhand smoke are more likely to have structural differences in their vascular systems as adults, such as thicker blood vessel walls and a higher risk of plaque buildup in the arteries," said Chigoze Ezegbe, M.B.B.S., M.P.H., lead author of the study and a Ph.D. candidate at the Menzies Institute for Medical Research at the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia. "In this study, we wanted to understand the impact of prolonged secondhand smoke exposure during childhood on heart function in adulthood." The investigators examined the health records of more than 1,100 adults (average age 45 years, 52% female) who are participants in the ongoing Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study, an Australia-wide research project initiated in 1985 that investigates the importance of childhood factors in the later development of risk factors for heart disease and stroke. About half (54%) of the participants were exposed to secondhand smoking at home during childhood. The participants' most recent evaluation was between 2014 and 2019, 34 years after they entered the study as schoolchildren. The severity of childhood smoking exposure was calculated three ways: the number of smokers in the home; the number of years each child was exposed to tobacco smoking by household members; and the severity of exposure index - whether a child was said to be exposed in the home never, sometimes or always.

Acute exposure to higher ozone levels linked to higher risk of cardiac arrest   -- Exposure to higher ozone concentrations in the air is significantly associated with a higher risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), according to preliminary research to be presented at the American Heart Association's Resuscitation Science Symposium 2020. The virtual meeting is November 14-16, 2020 and will feature the most recent advances related to treating cardiopulmonary arrest and life-threatening traumatic injury. Previous studies have shown acute exposure to ozone and particulate matter in the air is associated with the development of chronic diseases. A 2010 scientific statement from the American Heart Association deemed ambient air pollutants a "modifiable factor that contributes to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality." "Air pollutants have been associated with increased mortality in the U.S., however, it is unknown whether ozone and particulate matter in the air on any given day are associated with a higher risk of an individual experiencing cardiac arrest outside of the hospital," said Ali Malik, M.D., M.Sc., a clinical cardiology and cardiovascular outcomes research fellow at Saint Luke's Mid America Heart Institute in Gladstone, Missouri, and lead author of the study. Researchers used data from the Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival to examine if higher concentrations of ozone and particulate matter were associated with incidents of cardiac arrest. This study included 187,000 individuals with non-traumatic OHCA during 2013-2016. Participants were age 63 years on average, 61% were men and 53% were non-white. Individual exposures to particulate matter and ozone were estimated using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric models that predict daily ozone levels by census tract. The results of the analysis found that for every 12 parts per billion (ppb) increase in the ozone level, the odds of a OHCA increased by 1%, which is statistically significant. However, there was no association between particulate matter concentration and OHCA, and no difference in risk for air-quality-related OHCA tied to age, sex or race.

How Will the Biden Administration Tackle ‘Forever Chemicals’? -   In his environmental justice plan, President-elect Joe Biden pledged to set enforceable limits for PFAS in drinking water and to designate PFAS as a hazardous substance under the Superfund cleanup law. PFAS chemicals are building up in the blood of every American, posing the risk of serious health problems. PFAS makes vaccines less effective and are linked to cancer, harm to the reproductive system and other health hazards.More than 200 million Americans are likely drinking water and eating food contaminated with PFAS. Nevertheless, the Environmental Protection Agency,Food and Drug Administration and Defense Department have for decades failed to address the chemicals' health risks. There are no federal limits on PFAS releases and uses and no requirements to clean up PFAS pollution.Setting a national drinking water standard for PFAS under the federal Safe Drinking Water would have a huge impact on public health. Right now, only a few statesrequire drinking water utilities to meet tough standards for PFAS in tap water. A national standard that would apply to all utilities would dramatically reduce our overall exposure to PFAS.Designating PFAS as "hazardous substances" under Superfund would also be historic. By doing so, the Biden-Harris administration would not only kick-start the cleanup process but also require polluters to pay their fair share of cleanup costs. But that's not all the Biden team has pledged. The president-elect also pledged to prioritize PFAS substitutes in the marketplace. That means Biden could direct the EPA and the FDA to quickly phase out non-essential uses of PFAS in food packaging, cosmetics, sunscreens and other everyday products.The Biden team will have other tools at its disposal. The president-elect could quickly restrict industrial discharges of PFAS into the air and water by using the tools provided by the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act, and expand reporting of these releases through the Toxic Release Inventory. Right now, more than 2,500 manufacturers are thought to be releasing PFAS with no limits. The Biden-Harris administration can also direct the Defense Department to accelerate efforts to end the use of PFAS-based firefighting foam, impose a moratorium on the incineration of remaining stocks of PFAS foam, and accelerate PFAS cleanup at military installations. More than 300 military installations are known to be contaminated with PFAS.

Chemicals in your living room cause diabetes - A new UC Riverside study shows flame retardants found in nearly every American home cause mice to give birth to offspring that become diabetic. These flame retardants, called PBDEs, have been associated with diabetes in adult humans. This study demonstrates that PBDEs cause diabetes in mice only exposed to the chemical through their mothers. "The mice received PBDEs from their mothers while they were in the womb and as young babies through mother's milk," said Elena Kozlova, lead study author and UC Riverside neuroscience doctoral student. "Remarkably, in adulthood, long after the exposure to the chemicals, the female offspring developed diabetes." Results of the study have been published in the journal Scientific Reports. PBDEs are common household chemicals added to furniture, upholstery, and electronics to prevent fires. They get released into the air people breathe at home, in their cars, and in airplanes because their chemical bond to surfaces is weak. "PBDEs are everywhere in the home. They're impossible to completely avoid," said UCR neuroscientist and corresponding author of the study, Dr. Margarita Curras-Collazo. "Even though the most harmful PBDEs have been banned from production and import into the U.S., inadequate recycling of products that contain them has continued to leach PBDEs into water, soil, and air. As a result, researchers continue to find them in human blood, fat, fetal tissues, as well as maternal breast milk in countries worldwide."

Victims of Nuclear Bomb Tests on U.S. Soil 75 Years Ago Continue to Seek Justice - On July 16, 1945, the first-ever nuclear bomb was tested in New Mexico, in the Southwestern United States. . Seventy miles from what became known as ground zero—the Trinity test site—Genoveva’s family lived on a ranch just outside the village of Capitan in New Mexico.  At precisely 5:30 a.m., as dawn broke, the sky suddenly went pitch dark. Having no other point of reference, they mistook the abnormally loud roaring and rumbling in the sky for thunder. The entire house began to shake. Fear-stricken, the family huddled together in a corner. When the sky cleared, her father stepped outside the house and found himself being showered with a white powder. The powder was everywhere and covered everything around them. Nothing escaped it, not the cows the family had raised, or the vegetables in the garden, or the rainwater they stored in the absence of running water. Like other families who went through this experience, Genoveva’s family also dusted off the powder and consumed their vegetables and the stored water. The blast produced so much energy that it incinerated everything it touched and formed a fireball that rose to more than 12 kilometers into the atmosphere. The fireball created ash that snowed over the communities surrounding the blast site. The people did not know it then, but this ash that covered thousands of square mileswas the radioactive fallout from the explosion.Dread gripped the communities in Tularosa Basin who either witnessed or experienced the phenomenon they could not make sense of.  In the days and months leading up to the blast, U.S. government officials did not notify anyone who lived in the region about the imminent nuclear bomb test. Nobody in the Tularosa Basin was evacuated to safety.In the aftermath of the nuclear test, officials began to cement a false narrative into the consciousness of the nation; the region was remote and uninhabited. Tens of thousands of people, in fact, lived in the Tularosa Basinin 1945. For a long time, the people of the basin believed that the blast was an ammunition explosion. “We were lied to by the government,” said Pino.It takes 24,000 years for half of the radioactive plutonium used in the Trinity bomb to decay. The people of the region have inhaled and ingested radioactive particles for 75 years because of environmental contamination. Those in power refuse to accept responsibility and take any corrective action. To this day, there have been no cleanup efforts.Radiation exposure has caused high rates of aggressive cancers, thyroid disease, infant mortality, and other health abnormalities in generations of families in the Tularosa Basin region. The scale of the health impact cannot be determined accurately as long-term epidemiological studies have only been undertaken recently. The findings of the latest research studies by the National Cancer Institute were published in September 2020 in the journal Health Physics. “There were 10 of us; now only one is surviving,” Genoveva says, speaking of herself. She has lost everyone in her family to cancer.

Trump administration faces suit over removal of endangered species protections for gray wolves - The Trump administration is facing a lawsuit over its recent decision to remove endangered species protections for gray wolves. On Friday, a coalition of conservation groups filed a notice of intent to sueover the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) decision, which was finalized late last month. The FWS rule lifts more than 45 years of protections for the wolves, except for a small band of Mexican gray wolves present in Arizona and New Mexico. The new notice argued that the basis for the decision was both legally flawed and not based on the best available science. It cited a peer review commissioned by the government that was critical of the delisting proposal. “Given that gray wolves in the lower 48 states occupy a fraction of their historical and currently available habitat, the Fish and Wildlife Service determining they are successfully recovered does not pass the straight-face test,” said John Mellgren, an attorney with the Western Environmental Law Center, in a statement on Monday. “While the Trump administration may believe it can disregard science to promote political decisions, the law does not support such a stance,” Mellgren added. FWS spokesperson Vanessa Kauffman defended the delisting decision in an email to The Hill, saying it "reflects the Trump Administration’s continued commitment to species conservation based on the parameters of the law and the best scientific and commercial data available." "After more than 45 years as a listed species, the gray wolf has exceeded all conservation goals for recovery. This action reflects the determination that this species is neither a threatened nor endangered species based on the specific factors Congress has laid out in the law,” Kauffman said.

Russian scientists discover huge walrus haulout in Arctic circle (Reuters) - Scientists in northern Russia have discovered a huge walrus haulout on the shores of the Kara Sea where their habitat is under threat from shrinking ice and human activity. The haulout, a place of refuge where walruses congregate, reproduce, and socialise, is located in a remote corner of Russia’s Yamal peninsula, and scientists say they counted over 3,000 animals there last month. Walrus haulouts have traditionally been located on drifting sea ice or on Arctic islands, scientists say. But warmer climate cycles mean sea ice is shrinking and habitats are under threat from oil and gas exploration and more Arctic shipping. “This haulout is unique because there are both female and male walruses, as well as calves of different age,” said Aleksander Sokolov, a senior Arctic researcher at Russia’s Academy of Sciences who called the find a “unique open-air laboratory”. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) listed the species as “nearly threatened” in 2016, estimating the total number of adult Atlantic walruses in the world at 12,500. Before commercial hunting of them was banned internationally in the middle of the 20th century, their numbers were threatened by overharvesting for their blubber and ivory. Andrei Boltunov, from the Marine Mammal Research and Expedition Center, said the Yamal haulout which was first discovered last year but only properly documented last month, showed that the Atlantic walrus population was recovering. “We want to believe that it’s a positive sign,” said Boltunov, who said there was too little information for now to draw sweeping conclusions however.

Horseshoe crabs are crucial to creating vaccines, but they are facing extinction - A creature that has existed for more than 440 million years is key for ensuring a coronavirus vaccine is safe, but experts are warning the ancient animal could soon be facing extinction. Drug manufacturers rely on Atlantic horseshoe crabs to develop safe vaccines and injectable drugs. Each year, hundreds of thousands of horseshoe crabs are rounded up by pharmaceutical companies, drained of their milky-blue blood, and returned to the ocean, after which many will die. That’s because the blood is used to keep contaminants from making their way into IV drugs and vaccines. “Horseshoe crab blood is harvested to produce limulus amebocyte lysate, LAL. That is a detecting system for bacterial contamination,” John Tanacredi, the director of the Environmental Research and Coastal Oceans Monitoring lab at Molloy College, told CBS New York. While the Atlantic horseshoe crab is not currently endangered, the practice of harvesting the crabs for their blood combined with overharvesting for bait and loss of habitat has resulted in a decline of the species across the U.S. mid-Atlantic over recent decades.   Researchers estimated in 1990 more than 1.24 million crabs spawned in Delaware Bay, a prominent point where the crabs lay their eggs and a key harvesting area for pharmaceutical companies. In 2019, researchers said the number of crabs spawning in the area was about 335,000.   Other areas have seen declines in the crabs’ numbers as well.

Ethiopia battles worst locust plague in 25 years - Ethiopian farmers are battling the country's worst locust invasion in 25 years, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which urged officials to scale up survey and control operations in its situation update on November 9, 2020. More than 200 000 ha (490 000) acres of land have been damaged since January this year, threatening food supplies. "They have destroyed my crop. I do not know what to do. We have lost food and battle against desert locusts," farmer Leila Mohammed told Anadolu Agency. She was ready to harvest her millet crop when she saw gigantic swarms of locust approaching the field. Other farmers noted that after trying to combat the insects, they return to sap the last grain of crop left in the field. Siba Aden Mohammed, a local official serving at Awbare district, said the area was just sprayed with pesticides in early November but the swarms came back "to destroy whatever little had been left." "The new swarms have destroyed eight Kebeles [farmers’ localities]. All standing crops have been lost entire standing at six localities of Jabsa, Shil Asley, Aladere, Wogera Adle, Keleroek, and Gez Obele." "It did not seem to affect this time unlike a week ago when the aerial spray had killed the locusts. The government is trying its best, sending aircraft, sprays, and experts. But it looks nothing is working." More than 200 000 ha (490 000 acres) of cropland have been impacted since the beginning of the year, affecting the food security of millions of people.FAO acknowledged that the invasion is Ethiopia's worst since 1995, and representative Fatouma Seid fears that the pattern may be repeated next year. "Infestation will continue into 2021. We are being reinvaded and the swarms will then go to Kenya." In its situation update on Monday, the org encouraged officials to scale up survey and control operations, particularly throughout the Somali region in eastern Ethiopia. "Immature swarms persist near Dire Dawa and Jijiga. Hatching and hopper band formation, probably on a widespread basis, [is] underway in the eastern portion of the Somali region, including the Ogaden."

Farmers Are Depleting the Ogallala Aquifer Because the Government Pays Them to Do So -  A slow-moving crisis threatens the U.S. Central Plains, which grow a quarter of the nation's crops. Underground, the region's lifeblood – water – is disappearing, placing one of the world's major food-producing regions at risk.The Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer is one of the world's largest groundwater sources, extending from South Dakota down through the Texas Panhandle across portions of eight states. Its water supports US$35 billion in crop production each year.But farmers are pulling water out of the Ogallala faster than rain and snow can recharge it. Between 1900 and 2008 they drained some 89 trillion gallons from the aquifer – equivalent to two-thirds of Lake Erie. Depletion is threatening drinking water supplies and undermining local communities already struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, the opioid crisis, hospital closures, soaring farm losses and rising suicide rates.In Kansas, "Day Zero" – the day wells run dry – has arrived for about 30% of the aquifer. Within 50 years, the entire aquifer is expected be 70% depleted.Some observers blame this situation on periodic drought. Others point to farmers, since irrigation accounts for90% of Ogallala groundwater withdrawals. But our research, which focuses on social and legal aspects of water use in agricultural communities, shows that farmers are draining the Ogallala because state and federal policies encourage them to do it. At first glance, farmers on the Plains appear to be doing well in 2020. Crop production increased this year. Corn, the largest crop in the U.S., had a near-record year, and farm incomes increased by 5.7% over 2019.But those figures hide massive government payments to farmers. Federal subsidies increased by a remarkable 65% this year, totaling $37.2 billion. This sum includes money for lost exports from escalating trade wars, as well as COVID-19-related relief payments. Corn prices were too low to cover the cost of growing it this year, with federal subsidies making up the difference. Our research finds that subsidies put farmers on a treadmill, working harder to produce more while draining the resource that supports their livelihood. Government payments create a vicious cycle of overproduction that intensifies water use. Subsidies encourage farmers to expand and buy expensive equipment to irrigate larger areas.

A dam blocking 348 miles of salmon streams hasn’t generated electricity since 1958. But who will take it down? — It has no license to produce electricity, hasn’t generated a kilowatt since 1958, and provides no benefits for irrigation or flood control. But one thing Enloe Dam, built 100 years ago, still does very, very well: block fish from reaching more than 340 miles of high-quality, cold-water habitat upstream in the Similkameen River. The dam is of no use to anyone, not the small rural public utility district (PUD) that owns it, and not to tribes longing to bring salmon back to this river. Obstacles of cost, liability and a quest by the PUD to revive the dam for more than a decade stood in the way of removal. But now new efforts are underway to take down Enloe Dam. “It’s got to go,” said Rodney Cawston, chairman of the business council of the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, as he watched the river crash in a 53-foot white cascade over the spillway of the dam. “Our people have lived off salmon for thousands of years. This is of just huge importance to us.” Taking down Enloe Dam is crucial for rebuilding steelhead, lamprey and chinook salmon in this river, said Cody Desautel, natural resources director for the tribes. The question isn’t whether this dam in their traditional territory should come down. But how, and at what cost, and who pays. “This is a mathematic and engineering question, and a question of where the sediment [behind the dam] goes,” Desautel said. “But the question of whether to remove it or not, that is a no-brainer.” Tribal business council member Andrew Joseph’s Indian name is Badger — an animal whose ferocious determination well matches the tribes’ efforts to restore salmon where dams have long been a barrier.In 2019, the tribes even began reintroducing salmon above Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams.Here, on the Similkameen River, a tributary of the Okanogan, which flows into the Upper Columbia, the tribes see a chance for restoration that is one of a kind.“There is nothing else like it in the entire upper Columbia,” said Chris Fisher, principal fish biologist for the Colville tribes.Estimates in a 1983 report to the Bonneville Power Administration compiled by snorkel surveys of the Similkameen system reported 1.2 million square yards of spawnable habitat for steelhead trout and 439,000 square yards for chinook that could accommodate 98,000 spawning steelhead and 55,000 chinook.Estimates are just that. But there is no question that taking down the dam, built just west of Oroville, would open passage to an entire system of wilderness tributaries in upstream, precious, high-elevation, cold-water habitat. Dam removal could add decades to the survival of upper Columbia chinook and steelhead, Fisher said, cold-water species listed for protection under the federal Endangered Species Act.

Study: Plastic Pollution Increases Ocean Acidification -A new study finds that plastic water bottles submerged three weeks at sea contained more detrimental bacteria than seawater, creating conditions that lead to ocean acidification.In the study, published last week in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin, international scientists concluded that plastic pollution, particularly single-use plastic water bottles, collected harmful bacteria and microorganisms, which flourish in carbon dioxide-rich environments.Increased levels of CO2 in the world's oceans are one of the causes of coral bleaching, and rising carbon levels have accelerated the climate crisis. The Great Barrier Reef, the largest system of corals in the world, is now 50 percent bleached.The study also found that beneficial bacteria, an important part of the carbon cycle, were adversely affected."Discarded plastic drinking bottles have become a common sight in our oceans and we were expecting to see them being colonized by different types of bacteria," said Dr. Ben Harvey, assistant professor at the University of Tsukuba's Shimoda Marine Research Center, and an author of the study.As part of the experiment, the plastic bottles were immersed near Shikine, a Japanese island close to carbon dioxide seeps, where CO2 evaporates into the seawater. This condition is expected to materialize more in subsequent years."It was surprising to see the extent of that change and how the raised levels affected species differently. To see beneficial species dwindling while harmful species thrive is an obvious present and future cause for concern," said Harvey.In addition to coral bleaching, ocean acidification is often a driver in biodiversity loss, with disrupted food webs threatening species."Up to 13 million tons of plastics from land end up in the oceans each year and they have been shown to affect all types and sizes of marine species," said senior author of the study Jason Hall-Spencer, a professor of marine biology at the University of Plymouth.Without coral reefs, starfish, sea urchin and sea turtle populations shrink, for example. Plus, acidification can cause sharks' scales and teeth to erode. And deep-sea life such as whales and rays face less prey to find.

All-time November snow records broken for parts of the Canadian Prairies A strong low-pressure system brought blizzard conditions, heavy snow and freezing rain to parts of the Canadian Prairies on November 7 and 8, 2020, shutting down roads in Saskatchewan and Alberta and setting new all-time November snow records. While heavy snow fell in western parts of Saskatchewan, its eastern regions experienced freezing rain. Several more cm of snow is expected through the end of the week. The town of Kindersley in Saskatchewan recorded 47.6 cm (18.7 inches) of snow on Saturday and Sunday, November 7 and 8, setting a new 48-hour snowfall record. Kindersley recorded 11.6 cm (4.5 inches) on Saturday; and 35.8 cm (14 inches) on Sunday, breaking the previous 24-hour snowfall record of 21.3 cm (8.3 inches) set on March 17, 1974. "To put the weekend's snowfall in perspective, the nearly 48 cm that recently accumulated is more than Kindersley saw in November, December, January and February 2019," Brittany Warner of West Central Online reports. "Those four months totaled 43.8 cm (17.2 inches) combined, approximately 4 cm (1.5 inches) less than what fell this weekend." Biggar and Leader have also broken November 2019 snow totals with 21.1 cm (8.3 inches) in Biggar in 48 hours -- which is 6 cm (2.3 inches) more than the entire November 2019 -- and 23.1 cm (9 inches) in Leader. In November 2019, Leader recorded a total of 12.8 cm (5 inches). Between 15 and 20 cm (5.9 - 7.8 inches) was recorded in the city of Regina, and nearly 30 cm (11.8 inches) in Saskatoon. Saskatoon's current 24-hour snow record is 36 cm (14.1 inches) set on January 7, 2007.  Prince Albert recorded 37 cm (14.5 inches) of snow, Codette 33 cm (12.9 inches) and Limerick 31 cm (12 inches). Rosetown reported 16.8 cm (6.6 inches) over the weekend, just a bit more than it recorded during the entire November 2019. Winter storm and blizzard warnings have all been dropped by Monday, but travel is still not recommended, the Weather Network reports.

 Record cold and snow engulf California and Nevada, U.S. - Back-to-back cold fronts brought record temperatures and heavy snow to California beginning Friday, November 6, 2020, after months of hot weather and wildfires in the state. Single-day snowfall records were also broken in several areas in Nevada. In California, a total of 46 cm (18 inches) of snow engulfed Sierra-at-Tahoe ski resort over the weekend, followed by 25 cm (10 inches) at Sugar Bowl. Daytime temperatures plunged to 10 °C (50 °F), with freeze warnings and frost advisories issued for some inland valleys overnight. On Monday, November 9, the temperature at Oakland Airport dipped to 3.3 °C (38 °F), breaking the cold record of 5 °C (41 °F) set in 2009. Gilroy shivered through a below-freezing -0.5 °C (31 °F), beating the previous record of 1.1 °C (34 °F) set in 1986. Parts of Southern California have also started experiencing chilly temperatures after months of hot weather and wildfires. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts temperatures significantly below average in the region on Wednesday morning, November 11. Freeze warnings and frost advisories also remain in place. "Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing," NWS warned.In the neighboring state of Nevada, single-day snowfall records were broken in several areas including Reno, Carson City, and Yerington. Much of the area registered 13 cm (5 inches) of snow, which was considered historic for the date. "We normally see our first snowfall around the middle of November, but what's so unusual is the amount that fell," said KRNV-DT. "As a matter of fact, in Reno, we've only seen that much snowfall two other times in history before November 8th. In our region, we have roughly 130 years of record keeping."

Severe floods hit southern Andalusia after a month's worth of heavy rain falls in a day, Spain (videos) Major floods hit parts of southern Andalusia, Spain, on Thursday, November 5, 2020, resulting in damage, blocked roads, trapped residents, and a derailed train. The region registered 148.1 mm (5.5 inches) of rain in a 24 hour period, which was more than the average November rainfall of 100 mm (3.9 inches). According to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), some storms may still be experienced in the region on Monday, November 9.  Heavy rains and strong winds lashed the southern Andalusia region on Thursday, resulting in floods that trapped several people and damaged some roads.  The emergency services responded to 130 incidents, mostly were in Malaga with 90 reports, followed by Huelva with 19 calls, and Seville with 12.   A six-month-old infant and two adults were rescued after floodwaters trapped them in their home in Ronda. According to the local fire department, Guadelevin River broke its banks during the severe weather's onslaught.    In the municipality of Ardales, roads were damaged while a road tunnel was blocked, leaving several areas isolated. Five major roads in the province of Malaga were also closed.  In Teba, heavy rains caused a train with 40 passengers to derail, while floodwaters damaged tracks on the Algeciras-Madrid route. Four people, including the driver, sustained minor injuries. A school in the area was evacuated as well due to flooding.

Massive floods sweep through eastern Libya - (videos) Major floods swept through Libya's eastern region after heavy rains struck on Friday, November 6, 2020, resulting in considerable damage to houses, cars, and public infrastructure. About 10 million Libyan dinars or 7 million dollars have been allocated to deal with the damages in Al-Bayda municipality.​ A two-day holiday from Monday to Tuesday, November 9 to 10, was declared as affected areas remain flooded. Authorities said blocked sewers caused floodwaters to enter houses and public facilities, including a hospital in the city center.The municipal council declared a two-day official holiday beginning Monday, November 9, as the streets remain inundated. The interior ministry warned citizens and motorists to take caution on public roads.In a statement on Sunday, November 8, the ministry announced a heightened state of alert in all departments of the National Safety Authority (NSA) and emergency services. Police officials remain on standby in case of emergency and to facilitate traffic movement.Health Minister Dr. Saad Agoub issued urgent instructions to all emergency departments and health services to provide people with necessary health care.Meanwhile, the head of the steering council of the Municipality of Tobruk, Faraj Boukhatabia, set up an emergency room-- including the municipal guard, social affairs agency, NSA, and Red Crescent to accommodate calls from people.In Al-Bayda, the presidential council has allocated an amount of 10 million Libyan dinars or 7 million dollars to provide all the urgent requirements to deal with the situation in the municipality.

Hundreds dead and missing after Eta devastates Central America and southern Mexico - Hurricane Eta continued to break records in intensity as it caused widespread devastation and incalculable suffering across the entire Central American isthmus and much of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. As of this writing, 98 people have been found dead and 187 have been reported missing, while many more casualties are feared as rescuers reach communities isolated by the flooding and damage to roads and bridges. Millions have seen their livelihoods uprooted by the destruction of homes, public services, roads, and countless acres of plantations. The rampant social devastation in the region had already been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the storm, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America had estimated that the Central American economy would contract 6.5 percent this year and sink over 1.5 million more people into official poverty. Amid low levels of testing, the region has reported 512,572 coronavirus cases and 12,075 deaths, while the Pan-American Health Organization has warned that the storm has increased the threat of infection. The mass displacements of people, the crowding into shelters and water availability issues are compounded by the near total lack of emergency measures to prevent contagion. Hurricane Eta intensified at record levels right before making landfall as a strong Category 4 storm in eastern Nicaragua, before becoming a tropical depression as it crossed through eastern Honduras. The storm wiped out small communities in the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, where 30,000 people were evacuated. The government has acknowledged that two artisanal miners died but no official accounting of the damages has been provided. Damage in Panama was concentrated in the Chiriquí province bordering Costa Rica. Landslides and flooding killed at least 17 people and left 68 missing, according to the Security Ministry. In Costa Rica, a couple died after their home was swept away by a landslide. Authorities have reported that 1,872 people were sent to shelters after their homes were destroyed or placed at risk, while the destruction of roads and public infrastructure left 19 towns temporarily isolated and tens of thousands without power or running water. Honduras saw the most widespread damage, including at least 26 dead and six missing reported so far. Large portions of the city of San Pedro Sula, the industrial center of the country with more than 1 million inhabitants, were submerged under a meter of water. Authorities have given estimates that across Honduras hundreds of thousands of homes and 1.7 million people were affected, with many losing all their belongings. Thousands in surrounding communities in the Sula Valley were cut off, with residents waiting days to be rescued from rooftops. The news program “Hoy Mismo” received a call from a woman requesting a helicopter or boat. “We haven’t eaten for two days and there are about 60 of us here with children,”

Tropical Storm "Eta" makes landfall in Florida after leaving more than 235 dead in Central America - After striking Nicaragua on November 2 as a Category 4 hurricane and leaving more than 235 people dead in Central America, Eta made landfall along the south-central coast of Cuba at around 09:00 UTC on November 8 and in Lower Matecumbe Key in Florida, U.S at 04:00 UTC on November 9, both with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph) - tropical storm strength.

• Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida, NHC warns.
• Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. 
• Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
• Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.
• Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
• Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

At 09:00 UTC on November 9, the center of Tropical Storm "Eta" was located about 70 km (45 miles) NNW of Key West and 100 km (62 miles) S of Naples, Florida. Eta had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (62 mph) and was moving 20 km/h (13 mph). Its minimum central pressure was 992 hPa.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence; Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island; Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay; and Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.  A west to west-southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today (EST) and tonight.

Tropical Storm "Eta" brings deadly floods to Florida and North Carolina, U.S. - Tropical Storm "Eta" made its second landfall in Florida and overall fourth landfall at 09:20 UTC (04:20 LT) on Thursday morning, November 12, 2020, with winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), causing torn off trees and roofs, widespread flooding, at least one casualty, and power outage that affected 11 000 customers. Hours after pounding the state, it spread heavy rains and gusty winds around the Carolinas, resulting in record-breaking floods in Charlotte, multiple rescues, at least one collapsed bridge, and at least 6 fatalities. The overall death toll is now approaching 300. On Thursday morning, Eta made its overall fourth landfall and second Florida landfall near Cedar Key, with winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Up to 152 mm (6 inches) of rain fell over central and northern Florida into Thursday morning. Officials in several areas-- including St. Petersburg, Sarasota, and Madeira Beach have responded to reports of flooded streets and torn off roofs. Roughly 11 000 customers lost access to electricity. As of Friday morning, November 13, a total of 616 customers remain without power, according to poweroutage.us. After reaching the mainland, the winds fell to 64 km/h (40 mph) in the afternoon. The storm ripped roofs apart, caused flooding, and widespread outages that affected 11 000 customers. In the south St. Petersburg Beach area, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office deployed its High Water Rescue Teams to save 33 people trapped in their houses and streets. In Manatee County, one person lost his life after being electrocuted while standing in an inundated area prior to the landfall, emergency management officials said. Deputies and highway crews are still working to clear debris from roads. In the Carolinas, moisture from Eta combined with a cold front moving eastward across the Eastern U.S. generated extremely heavy rainfall. At least 6 people lost their lives in North Carolina.

Eta flash floods turn deadly in North Carolina - At least seven people are dead and three are missing after heavy rains slammed North Carolina Thursday and caused severe flash flooding, according to The Washington Post. Some areas of the Tarheel State were hit with up to 10 inches of rain as moisture from Tropical Storm Eta moved off the Florida coast and interacted with a cold front over the region.  About an hour north of Charlotte, Alexander County was one of the hardest-hit areas where crews had to evacuate more than 30 people from a campsite due to flooding. Three people were found dead at the Hiddenite Family Campground and a child and two adults are still missing. One person also died after a car went into water in Alexander County, and two traffic-related deaths were reported near Statesville, about 40 miles north of Charlotte. Near Raleigh, a child playing near a creek that overflowed drowned in the town of Rolesville.Floodwaters damaged dozens of roads and at least four bridges in the hard-hit county, and a reporter from Fox 46 Charlotte was live on the air when one of the bridges collapsed near her. Rescue crews evacuated 143 students from the Charlotte Corvian Community School after floodwaters inundated the building, according to the Charlotte Fire Department. No injuries were reported.    “The rain may have ended but hazards remain,” the National Weather Service said on Twitter Friday. “Numerous roads remain closed & several rivers continue to rise. Use caution while traveling & leave extra time in case you encounter a closed roadway. Never drive around barricades.”  Eta has pummeled both coasts of Florida for days as it has moved north. The storm first made landfall in Central America last week as a Category 4 hurricane and left at least 120 people dead in the region and dozens of others missing, according to The Associated Press. Eta also made landfall in Cuba and in the Lower Matecumbe Key on Sunday.

More than half of Honduras' banana production destroyed by Tropical Storm "Eta" --Honduras' banana sector has been hit particularly hard by Tropical Storm "Eta" after it lashed Central America last week. More than half of the country's existing 15 000 ha (37 000 acres) has been lost to severe floods-- the biggest damage in history for bananas, according to producers. Eta hit Honduras around November 5, forcing hundreds of residents to flee their homes. At least 457 houses have been damaged, 41 communities were cut off, at least nine bridges were destroyed, and up to 63 fatalities have been reported as of November 10. The banana sector has been significantly affected as about 8 000 ha (20 000 acres) of crops have been ravaged, which was more than half of the existing 15 000 ha (37 000 acres) in the country. "I think this is the biggest damage in history for bananas," said producer Hector Castro, adding that at least 16 000 direct jobs may be in danger and the export volume will decrease. As of August 2020, agricultural product exports had increased by 10.7 percent over the same period in 2019, totaling 631 million dollars. The volume of fruit shipments pummeled by 4.6 percent, but the average international price hiked by 26.3 percent, according to the Central Bank. "Honduras will be left in a very weak situation due to the blow this will have on the government's finances on the private sector," Mateo Yibrin stated, a businessman from San Pedro. "We all have to be aware that getting out of this won't be easy. 2021 is going to be an economically very complicated and complex year." 

Subtropical Storm "Theta" forms as the record-breaking 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season - Subtropical Storm "Theta" formed over the open waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean on November 10, 2020, as the record-breaking 29^th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The previous seasonal record for Atlantic named storms was 28 set in 2005.The Atlantic now has two named storm simultaneously -- Eta and Theta. This is the latest in the calendar year that the Atlantic hurricane season has had two named storms simultaneously since November 10, 1932, Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU, said.The 2020 season now ranks among the top 5 seasons for named storm days, hurricanes and major hurricanes. "It remains somewhat above-average for other metrics," Klotzbach added.At 09:00 UTC on November 10, the center of Subtropical Storm "Theta" was located about 1 545 km (960 miles) of the Azores. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and estimated minimum central pressure of 998 hPa. Theta was moving E at 19 km/h (12 mph). An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. "Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind," NHC forecaster Cangialosi noted at 09:00 UTC today. "However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm."

Iota Becomes 30th Named Storm in Historic Hurricane Season - A system swirling across the central Caribbean has been named Tropical Storm Iota as it heads toward hurricane-ravaged Central America. Iota is forecast to reach hurricane strength and approach Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras as early as Sunday night, the National Hurricane Center said. The region is still recovering from Hurricane Eta, which ripped through the same area earlier this month and left more than 100 dead. Iota is the 30th named storm in the Atlantic this year, beating the old record of 28 set in 2005. It’s likely to take a similar path as Eta, which made landfall Nov. 3 as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 miles per hour (225 kilometers per hour). That storm triggered massive flooding in Central America before heading back out to sea, and passed across Florida Thursday.  Iota could become a Category 3 storm with winds of at least 111 mph as it approaches the coastline, said Jim Rouiller, lead meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group. “The results would be catastrophic,” Rouiller said. “They are still recovering and it is going to produce another serious threat -– the flooding is going to be tremendous. This is definitely the worst case.” Since the first storm of the year formed off the U.S. East Coast in May, 2020 has unleashed a conveyor belt of destruction. Hundreds of people have died, billions in dollars of losses and damages have been incurred and records have fallen by the wayside one after the other. Bearing Brunt An unprecedented 12 named storms have hit the contiguous U.S., with the Gulf Coast bearing the brunt of the damage. The East Coast hasn’t been spared either, with New York having been plunged into darkness in early August when Hurricane Isaias made landfall in North Carolina and tracked up the Northeast. So many systems have formed this year that the National Hurricane Center used up its official name list in mid-September and resorted to using Greek letters to designate tropical cyclones. “We didn’t expect to see the 2005 record go down so soon,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the Colorado State University seasonal forecast. “There is obviously an improved observational component, but any way you slice it, 2020 has been one for the record books.”

Iota expected to strike Central America as a major hurricane - Tropical Storm "Iota" formed in the Central Caribbean at 21:00 UTC on November 13, 2020, as the 30th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Iota is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before it makes landfall in Central America. The same region that saw major floods and landslides caused by Hurricane "Eta" -- in which nearly 300 people lost their lives -- will experience another round of heavy rain and strong winds. Landfall is expected early Tuesday, November 17. The time to prepare is now. "2020 continues to add to the Atlantic named storm record," Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the CSU, said. "The old Atlantic single-season named storm record was 28 named storms set in 2005." "2020 is now tied with 1931, 1961, 2001 and 2005 for the most Atlantic named storm on record to form in November." Iota is also the 5th Caribbean named storm formation since October 1, along with Gamma, Delta, Zeta, and Eta. "The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is now tied with 2005 for the most Caribbean named storm formations after October 1 on record," Klotzbach added. If the current forecast verifies, Iota will intensify into a major hurricane before it makes landfall in Central America -- this would make it the 2nd major hurricane to form this month. Eta was the first. "Zero Atlantic hurricane seasons on record have had two major hurricane formations in November."

Tropical Storm "Etau" nears Vietnam, landfall expected on November 10 -- Tropical Storm "Etau" formed on November 9, 2020, in the South China Sea as the 21^st named storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season. PAGASA declared the system as a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC on November 7 and assigned it the name Tonyo. Etau is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Phu Yen and Ninh Thuan provinces on Tuesday, November 10. This will be the 12^thstorm to strike Vietnam this year.At 12:00 UTC November 9, the center of Tropical Storm "Etau" was located about 815 km (505 miles) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Etau's maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 75 km/h (45 mph), maximum 1-minute sustained winds also 75 km/h, with gusts up to 110 km/h (70 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 996 hPa and the system was moving west-southwestward at 22 km/h (14 mph). Further strengthening is expected prior to landfall before Etau weakens into a tropical depression as it moves into Cambodia. The provinces of Quang Tri and Khanh Hoa are expected to see as much as 400 mm (16 inches) of rain from Monday, November 9 to Thursday, November 12. Quang Binh and the Central Highlands are expected to receive 200 mm (8 inches) of rainfall during the same period. According to Senior Colonel Nguyen Dinh Hung of the Border Guard Command, nearly 60 000 vessels at sea have been notified of the storm and have been guided to navigate away from the danger zone.

Tropical Storm "Vamco" (Ulysses) to rapidly intensify before striking Philippines - Tropical Storm "Vamco" formed on November 9, 2020, as the 22^nd named storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season. The system entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 12:00 UTC on November 8, receiving the name Ulysses -- still as a tropical depression. By 12:00 UTC on November 10, Vamco intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm. The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) has raised a red alert status in Bicol Region (Region 5).At 09:00 UTC (17:00 LT) on November 10, Tropical Storm "Vamco" (Ulysses) was located about 930 km (580 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 85 km/h (50 mph), maximum 1-minute sustained winds 75 km/h (45 mph), with gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph).The minimum central barometric pressure was 994 hPa, and the system was moving northwestward at  20 km/h (13 mph).According to PAGASA, the center of  Vamco is more likely to make landfall over Quezon early Thursday morning, November 12, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening (LT), respectively.  However, a slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon or evening.Vamco may rapidly intensify into a typhoon by November 11 and reach a peak intensity of 130 to 150 km/h (80 - 93 mph) before the end of the day, PAGASA said. "Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely."

Typhoon "Vamco" strikes the Philippines, leaving a massive trail of destruction  Typhoon "Vamco" -- known locally as the Ulysses -- struck the Philippines on November 11, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (96 mph) and gusts to 205 km/h (127 mph). This is the 21^st named storm to hit the country this year and the 4^th in the past month-- after Molave, Etau, and Goni (super typhoon). It is also the 22^nd named storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season and the 10^th typhoon. Vamco left a massive trail of destruction, millions without power, at least two people dead, 4 missing, and nearly 200 000 displaced.Bicol, the worst affected by Super Typhoon "Goni," was the first to feel Vamco's powerful winds and rain. Many people there remain without power with only limited or no telecommunication services after Goni.The storm then battered Calabarzon, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila, unleashing powerful winds and torrential rain that left neighborhoods submerged and people appealing for aid and rescue, the Rappler reports.Social media sites were flooded with pictures of inundated villages with rooftops barely peering through the water’s surface.Metro Manila woke up to major flooding, described as the worst in years. Authorities used boats to reach people stranded on rooftops or trapped in their homes.Even some areas that were historically not flooded, such as the City Hall, were now submerged, PhilStar reported. More than 3.8 million customers in and around Manila were left without power. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has dispatched all of its disaster response units to affected areas, the Philippine News Agency (PNA) said, adding that AFP is monitoring the situation along the Marikina River that is experiencing heavy flooding."Evacuation is ongoing, with the Naval Task Group of the JTF-NCR joining city disaster risk and reduction units with their rubber boats, trucks, and personnel," AFP Chief of Staff, Gen. Gilbert Gapay, said in a statement Thursday.

New England Is Rattled by Strongest Earthquake Since 1976 -- The biggest earthquake in decades rattled New England Sunday morning.The 3.6 magnitude quake was epicentered a few miles off the coast of New Bedford, Massachusetts,according to NPR. No injuries were reported, but 21 people in New Bedford had to evacuate their homes because of minor structural damage, NBC10 Boston reported."I've never in my life experienced something so scary, ever in my life," one New Bedford woman told NBC10 Boston. "Like something exploded and I thought like a car had hit my building."The quake struck around 9:10 a.m. at a depth of about 9.3 miles. It was felt across Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as in parts of Connecticut and Long Island, New York, CBS Boston reported. Around 14,000 people reported it to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) website."Earthquakes in this area are commonly felt very far away because the rocks in this area are very contiguous, very old, so they transmit the energy very well from earthquakes," USGS geologist Paul Caruso told The New York Times.Caruso said there had been 26 earthquakes in Southern New England since 1963. However, this was the largest since a 3.5 quake struck in March of 1976, Caruso told CBS Boston."This was the first earthquake I really felt in New England," local seismologist Dr. Alan Kaftka told NBC10 Boston. He said smaller earthquakes in the region were common, but there had only been around nine earthquakes of a similar magnitude since the 1700s. While no major damage was reported, there was some minor damage. The most dramatic involved collapsed chimneys in two New Bedford apartment buildings, displacing several families. The Red Cross said it was helping 21 people, including children, who had to find another place to stay because of earthquake damage in the city.

 Sequence of powerful explosions at Stromboli volcano, Italy A sequence of powerful explosions occurred at Stromboli volcano, Italy starting at 20:04 UTC on November 10. 2020. The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, reports that at 20:04:20 UTC a major explosion has occurred in Stromboli's south-central crater area. The event lasted about 6 minutes and produced an eruption column that rose higher than the Pizzo Sopra la Fossa (elevation 400 m / 1 312 feet -- an area atop the volcano about 100 m / 328 feet above the crater terrace). The products of the explosion were mainly distributed over the Sciara del Fuoco and led to abundant pyroclastic material rolling down. The event lasted until 20:10:00 UTC, with at least three explosions of minor intensity after the major explosion. In terms of seismicity, the event, which was visible on all seismic stations at Stromboli, was characterized by a sequence of explosive events that commenced at 20:03.50 UTC. No significant variations affected the volcanic tremor amplitude. All parameters returned to normal levels by 22:11 UTC. Spectacular incandescent nighttime explosions at this volcano have long attracted visitors to the "Lighthouse of the Mediterranean." Stromboli, the NE-most of the Aeolian Islands, has lent its name to the frequent mild explosive activity that has characterized its eruptions throughout much of historical time. The small, 924-m-high (3 031 feet) island is the emergent summit of a volcano that grew in two main eruptive cycles, the last of which formed the western portion of the island.

Senate proposes spending increase at environmental agencies - The Republican-led Senate is proposing modest spending increases for environmental agencies compared to last year’s budget, diverging from proposed cuts that the Trump White House put forward earlier this year. In its $38 billion Interior-environment spending bill for fiscal 2021, the Senate Appropriations Committee proposed giving about $13.6 billion to the Interior Department and about $9.09 billion to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). That’s up from the $13.5 billion given to Interior last year and the about $9.06 billion appropriated for the EPA in the last fiscal year. The Senate has also proposed increasing the Energy Department’s budget to about $42 billion, an approximately $3.45 billion increase over last year. The Democrat-led House has also proposed increases for these agencies. The push by Congress to increase funding for the agencies comes after the White House in February called for cutting the EPA’s budget by 26 percent, the Interior budget by 16 percent and the Energy Department budget by 8 percent. The Senate legislation included increases for major agencies at Interior such as the National Park Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Bureau of Land Management. However, the top Democrat in charge of Interior-environment appropriations in the Senate expressed disappointment at some aspects of the bill. “We simply need more resources to fund programs that address existential threats such as climate change, imperiled species, and crumbling infrastructure, improve the lives of American Indians and Alaska Natives, and support the nation’s arts and cultural institutions,” Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) said in a statement. “I am also troubled that the draft continues a number of anti-environmental policy riders from previous years that would bind the incoming Biden-Harris administration before they are even in office and need to be removed, including language to block protections for the sage grouse,” Udall added. The senator was referring to a provision in the bill that seeks to prevent the sage grouse bird from receiving endangered species protections. The sage grouse is found in the Western U.S. and has caused legal wrinkles for oil and gas producers seeking to lease federal lands. The bill that contains the Energy Department’s budget, meanwhile, would set aside $150 million to start a uranium reserve program, which the Trump administration has pushed for as part of an effort to increase nuclear energy production. It would also increase spending on energy efficiency and renewable energy as well as nuclear energy research and development, along with maintaining levels for fossil energy research and development. Additionally, it would increase funding for the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, which President Trump proposed eliminating.

Georgia Senator Dismisses Climate Change While Enjoying Protected Beachfront Mansion -- IF SEN. DAVID PERDUE wins reelection in Georgia’s runoff in January, the Republican Party will almost certainly maintain its Senate majority. Perdue, an outspoken climate denier, urged President Donald Trump towithdraw from the Paris Climate Accords; voted against a Senate resolution that affirmed that climate change is real and that human activities contribute to it; and dismissed the Green New Deal as a “socialist wish list.” The one-term senator, who is a first cousin of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and golfing buddy of Trump, also vowed to protect the coal industry and was endorsed by the Koch-affiliated Super PAC, Americans for Prosperity. If Perdue wins, the potential for the Biden administration to respond to the global climate crisis will be greatly diminished.But even while Perdue publicly rejects the scientific consensus about climate change, the Georgia senator and former CEO of Dollar General is part of a gated beachfront community that has taken the global phenomenon and its consequences extremely seriously. Perdue owns a more than 9,000 square-foot mansion with six bathrooms, arched doorways, and a pool on Sea Island, a gated community on St. Simons Island, the wealthiest ZIP code in the state. Over the past few years, as sea-level rise has accelerated, the Sea Island Company, which owns the island resort, has constructed an elaborate and expensive system of jetties and sea walls in an effort to protect the lavish homes there. According to his federal disclosure forms, Perdue’s net worth is somewhere between $13.7 million and $39.8 million. Although it is just steps from the water in an area of Sea Island known as Ocean Forest, Perdue’s home — and the entire community — has been protected from the ravages of the quickly changing climate, giving the senator the privilege of dismissing the phenomenon even as his home is carefully girded against it. The Sea Island Company has built a sea wall, as well as three jetties, that combat beach erosion. And the company regularly collects massive amounts of sand from the southern jetty and redistributes it to other beaches along the island.

White House removes leader of major climate report - The White House has removed the top adviser responsible for leading the government’s assessment of the status of climate change. Michael Kuperberg, a climate scientist serving as executive director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), has returned to his previous post at the Department of Energy. Kuperberg’s reassignment came late Friday night, according to The Washington Post, removing him as leadership of the Fifth National Climate Assessment transitions to a new hire. The report involves drafting hundreds of top scientists to weigh in on climate change, often producing dire warnings about the limited time the U.S. has to act in order to avoid the most severe consequences. Kuperberg was already slated to be replaced by Betsy Weatherhead, a longtime climate scientist recently hired at the U.S. Geological Survey. But the shakeup means he will no longer be able to continue to work on the report as expected. According to The New York Times, some observers fear the administration may seek to place David Legates, a deputy administrator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, into the top slot. Legates, an academic with a history of questioning humans’ influence on global warming, could influence USGCRP as it seeks to select the academics and other experts that will write the report's sections. The Fifth National Climate Assessment has already had trouble getting off the ground. Though due in 2022, the website for the report already anticipates delivery by the end of 2023. The administration delayed in putting the call out for researchers to help with the report, beginning the process only after media reports. According to the Post, Kuperberg was surprised by the reassignment. “He was extremely dedicated,” a White House official told The Post. “He did a very good job of figuring out how to walk that political line. He had no idea it was coming.”

 Trump Administration Removes Scientist in Charge of Assessing Climate Change - The New York Times Michael Kuperberg was told he would no longer oversee the National Climate Assessment. The job is expected to go to a climate-change skeptic, according to people familiar with the changes. — The White House has removed the scientist responsible for the National Climate Assessment, the federal government’s premier contribution to climate knowledge and the foundation for regulations to combat global warming, in what critics interpreted as the latest sign that the Trump administration intends to use its remaining months in office to continue impeding climate science and policy. Michael Kuperberg, executive director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which produces the climate assessment, was told Friday that he would no longer lead that organization, people with knowledge of the situation said. According to two people close to the administration, he is expected to be replaced by David Legates, a deputy assistant secretary at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who previously worked closely with climate change denial groups. Dr. Kuperberg’s departure comes amid a broader effort, in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s defeat last week by President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., to remove officials who have fallen afoul of the White House. Also on Friday, Neil Chatterjee, head of the agency that regulates the nation’s utility markets, was demoted by the White House, after he publicly supported the use of renewable power. In a message to colleagues, Dr. Kuperberg said he was returning to his previous job at the Department of Energy. He was removed from the list of staff on the research program’s website on Monday. Dr. Kuperberg did not respond to requests for comment. The Global Change Research Program reports to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Asked why Dr. Kuperberg had been removed from the role, Kristina Baum, a spokeswoman for that office, said on Monday that “we do not comment on personnel matters.” Dr. Kuperberg’s dismissal appears to be the latest setback in the Trump administration for the National Climate Assessment, a report from 13 federal agencies and outside scientists that the government is required by law to produce every four years. The most recent report, in 2018, found that climate change poses an imminent and dire threat to the United States and its economy. It could be used in court to bolster the positions of fossil fuel companies being sued for climate damages. It could counter congressional efforts to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. And, ultimately, it could weaken what is known as the “endangerment finding,” a 2009 scientific finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that said carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions pose a threat to human health and therefore are subject to government regulation.

Chatterjee says exclusion of state regulators from carbon pricing conference was a 'mistake' Former chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Neil Chatterjee on Wednesday acknowledged that excluding state voices from FERC's carbon pricing conference may have been a "mistake." "These are difficult jobs and it's tough to get everything right. And I humbly acknowledge that I make mistakes. I make mistakes all the time," he said during a Q&A at a virtual National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) conference, where a question was asked about state regulators' absence from the technical conference on carbon pricing. "We could have done better. And with further reflection and more time, I acknowledge there could have been greater inclusion of direct state voices," he added. The commission was criticized for not including state regulators within wholesale markets on any of the panels at the conference, as well as for lacking gender and racial diversity. Chatterjee had previously defended his choices, saying he felt their voices were still represented, a position he repeated Thursday. The Role of Integrated Video Telematics in Driver Safety and Fleet Efficiency Learn how video intelligence is supporting large fleets in improving driver safety and mitigating risk. Learn more Dive Insight: Chatterjee on Thursday attempted to defend decisions he's made over the past few years as chairman that have been criticized by state regulators, promising he would work closely with the states going forward as a commissioner.  Chatterjee was demoted from his role as chairman last week by the White House, a move he and others think could have been in response to his action on carbon pricing. He will stay on as commissioner until his role is up in June of next year. Tensions between state and federal regulators reached an "all time high" this year, according to stakeholders frustrated with what they saw as FERC interfering in state clean energy plans. And although states had been in discussions with the commission to join its carbon pricing conference, no regulator from a FERC-regulated state was chosen.

REGULATIONS: White House races to wrap up rules before Trump exits -- Monday, November 9, 2020  Now that President Trump has lost reelection, observers and advocates are bracing for agencies to finish a host of actions on energy and the environment. Trump made deregulation a centerpiece of his 2016 campaign. Now the White House and political leaders at the different agencies have roughly two months to finish dismantling the regulatory state. "I think it's probably going to be an all-hands-on-deck to get as much accomplished as possible," said Nick Loris, an energy policy expert at the Heritage Foundation. This morning, the State Energy & Environmental Impact Center at New York University School of Law launched a tracker — "Midnight Watch Project" — to monitor regulatory actions on climate change, toxics, public lands and other issues through Jan. 20. "Last-ditch efforts may already be underway to lock in the damage done over the past four years and preemptively hamstring sorely needed action to protect the environment and public health — they will not go unnoticed or unanswered," said State Energy & Environmental Impact Center Executive Director David Hayes, a former Obama administration official. Analysts and observers expect EPA to speed up long-term priorities that could fundamentally change how future regulations are drafted, including a plan to restrict the use of scientific research. Another action would impose cost-benefit forecasting requirements for new air rules. Last week, EPA sent a proposal to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs that would keep air quality standards for fine particulate matter in place through 2025. That acton will likely be finalized by Jan. 20. The agency is working on a similar plan for ozone standards, though the agency may have a harder time wrapping up before the inauguration (Greenwire, Nov. 5).At Interior, observers say proposals to weaken protections under the Endangered Species Act would be at the top of the list.And even though a Biden administration might be able to reverse them, a rush of oil and gas lease sales — including a controversial one in Alaska — is also expected (see related story). Preparations for a regulatory mad dash have been underway for months, said Earthjustice attorney Drew Caputo. "I think we're going to see a crash rear-guard effort by the Trump administration to do as much anti-environmental stuff before they have to turn out the lights," he said.

POLITICS: Fractures appear in Biden's climate army -- Monday, November 9, 2020 -- Looming behind the blaring car horns and fireworks that welcomed President-elect Joe Biden's victory was the enormous challenge of fulfilling his campaign promises on climate change. Biden won on a wave of unity among union workers, liberal activists and a diverse coalition of climate-minded voters who coalesced as an army against President Trump. That alliance, uneasy at times, carried Biden through the Rust Belt states where fracking and manufacturing are woven into the region's economy. It helped him persevere in states like Arizona and Nevada where deadly heat waves and drought made aggressive climate policy a salient political message. If that unity dissolves, Biden's monumental task of eliminating carbon emissions could fracture the party's audacious approach to confronting climate change. Glimpses of discord are already on display. The Sunrise Movement, a youth-oriented group of climate activists, warned Biden yesterday about backsliding. For now, Biden and Democratic leaders in Congress describe their sweeping approach toward an existential climate threat as a moral goal that will unify the moderate and progressive wings of their party. "Americans have called on us to marshal the forces of decency and the forces of fairness, to marshal the forces of science and the forces of hope in the great battles of our time," Biden said in his victory speech Saturday night, including "the battle to save the climate." That echo from the campaign trail could soon be replaced by disagreements between divergent Democratic factions. Moderate lawmakers, alarmed by dwindling House seats, might seek compromises that appear to liberal activists as a surrender to corporate polluters. Progressives stand to demand an all-or-nothing attack on global warming that could strike union leaders as strident and out of touch. Democrats achieved their goal of unseating Trump, but they suffered a series of down-ballot defeats that robbed them of the ability to erase Trump's policymaking through Congress. Friction is already evident. During a three-hour caucus phone call Thursday, centrist Democrats blamed the loss of about a dozen House seats on progressive lawmakers who supported fracking bans and defunding police departments. Democrats emerged from the election with a threadbare majority — and with concerns about the future. It's true that renewable energy is booming and coal is in economic decline. But there are thorny challenges that the Biden administration will have to confront in order to meet its rapid timeline of hitting net-zero carbon in the power sector, like the growth of natural gas. Then there's the transportation sector, one of the steepest climate challenges Biden will confront. He said during the campaign that he won't emphasize bans on cars powered by fossil fuels, but some heavy-handed policies seem inevitable if he's going to zero out the sector's emissions. If those are absent, progressives could rebel. The strain is already showing. While some Democrats are pointing to policies such as the Green New Deal as a key part of the victory, others are complaining that they barely won because of messaging around a fracking ban. As moderates warn that Democrats risk blowback by going too far, progressives counter that moderates cannot take their base for granted. The voters who powered Democratic victories — even narrow ones — want the party to enact Biden's climate plan, polls show. 

Biden announces energy, environment transition team members | S&P Global Market Intelligence - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on Nov. 10 named members of his agency review teams who will be responsible for preparing Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris for the start of their administration. The team members for the U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency and other energy-focused agencies included academics, representatives of environmental and labor groups, and several veterans of the Obama administration in which Biden served as Vice President. Biden's DOE team lead is Arun Majumdar, co-director of Stanford University's Precourt Institute for Energy and founding director of the DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy. The energy team also includes Jonathan Elkind, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. Elkind worked for the DOE under the Obama administration from 2009 to 2017, focusing on climate and energy programs with other nations, and left the department as assistant secretary for international affairs, according to Columbia's website. The DOE team also includes Noah Deich, executive director of the nonprofit Carbon180, which is seeking to transform carbon into an asset. Deich has been especially active in the carbon capture, utilization and storage space. Another energy transition team member is Brad Markell, executive director of the AFL-CIO Industrial Union Council and chair of the AFL-CIO energy task force. Prior to joining the AFL-CIO, Markell was a union representative in Detroit who was "deeply involved in the negotiations leading to the historic tailpipe emissions standards for light-duty vehicles," according to a biography from the National Academy of Engineering. Biden's transition team for the EPA will be helmed by Patrice Simms, vice president for healthy communities at the environmental law and advocacy group Earthjustice. Simms started his career in the EPA's Office of General Counsel and went on to become deputy assistant attorney general in the U.S. Justice Department's Environment and Natural Resources Division during the Obama administration. Additional noteworthy team members include former Obama administration officials Joe Goffman and Cynthia Giles, who both currently hold positions at Harvard University. Goffman, the executive director of Harvard's Environmental and Energy Law Program, previously worked as general counsel in the Obama EPA's Office of Air and Radiation. There, Goffman helped write the Clean Power Plan, which set the first federal greenhouse gas emission standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants — a rule that has since been repealed and replaced by the Trump administration. Giles is a guest fellow at Harvard's Environmental and Energy Law Program and previously served as assistant administrator in the EPA's Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance. Notably, Giles analyzed EPA enforcement data for the first two years of the Trump administration and found a dramatic decline in civil penalties for polluters. The Interior transition team has considerable experience in tribal rights. The group will be led by Kevin Washburn, who served as Interior Assistant Secretary for Indian Affairs under Obama, and Janie Simms Hipp, CEO of the Native American Agriculture Fund. Similar to other Biden agency teams, it included Obama administration veterans such as Bob Anderson, co-chair of Obama’s Interior transition team in 2008, and former Interior senior advisor Kate Kelly, currently director of public lands at the nonprofit the Center for American Progress. Another member of the Interior team is Bret Birdsong, a law professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who has called for maintaining the Obama administration's sage-grouse species protections and restoring the size of the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments in Utah, which President Donald Trump significantly reduced in 2017.

EPA nominees may face challenging Senate confirmation path - Filling the top spot at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) may be one of the more challenging Senate confirmation efforts facing the incoming Biden administration as the team eyes picks that have been vocal Trump administration critics. The EPA is expected to play a vital role in a Biden administration determined to change the U.S course on climate change and sharply reduce emissions. Among those on the list to lead the agency are Mary Nichols, currently the head of the California Air Resources Board, National Wildlife Federation President Collin O’Mara, former EPA regional administrator Heather McTeer Toney, and Dan Esty, a Yale University professor who previously held senior roles at the EPA during former President George H.W. Bush’s administration. Nichols, one of California’s top environmental regulators, has been through a confirmation battle before, securing the nomination to lead the Office of Air and Radiation under the Clinton administration. But this process could be different, and Democrats haven’t been shy about voicing concerns over the leverage Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will hold over the process assuming Republicans win two Senate runoff elections in Georgia and keep the majority. “I take McConnell at his word. I understand he said that he will make it clear who he's prepared to support and not support and that's a negotiation that I'm sure we'll have,” President-elect Joe Biden told reporters Tuesday. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) during a Washington Post Live interview also forecast ongoing discussion between Senate Republicans and the White House, calling cabinet picks “a shared responsibility.” Toomey said that while the president “should get significant deference,” Senate Republicans may not be willing to support “people who are well outside of the political mainstream.” Nichols has earned wide praise in the environmental community and many see her as the front-runner for the position. “Mary Nichols is one of those most distinguished and accomplished environmental leaders in the United States,” Stan Meiburg, former acting deputy EPA administrator during the Obama administration, told The Hill. But the so-called Queen of Green has also not kept a low profile during the Trump administration. California has been one of Trump’s biggest foes, suing the administration 56 times over environmental rollbacks or other similar issues, including a decision to strip the state of its ability to enact tougher vehicle emissions standards. And Nichols has been at the center of those efforts, particularly as she has led the charge in recruiting automakers to sign deals to produce cars that reduce emissions faster than the timetable that was rolled back by Trump.

Trump races clock on remaining environmental rollbacks The Trump administration is scrambling to wrap up a slew of environmental rollbacks before President-elect Joe Biden takes office in less than 70 days. The administration has yet to get some of its most prized proposals across the finish line: finalizing the prep work to enable drilling in the Arctic and off the coasts; limiting protections for endangered species and migratory birds; and restricting what types of studies inform the government's policy choices. Those efforts are raising concerns among environmentalists who have spent the past four years battling President Trump on issues like climate change and scientific independence. “This is an administration that has been breaking norms from the beginning, so why shouldn’t we expect them to do that until the bitter end?” said David Hayes, executive director of the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center at New York University's School of Law. Hayes, along with others, is also worried about “personnel and other disruptive executive actions” beyond new regulations. At the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), top of the list is a proposal that has already generated roughly 600,000 negative comments. The rule, which the agency bills as a transparency measure, could block consideration of studies that don’t make their underlying data publicly available, something likely to exclude landmark public health research when crafting agency policy. Former EPA head Scott Pruitt, who led the agency from 2017-2018, called the rule a way to battle “secret science.” Critics counter it will block the agency from using studies that won’t release personal health information or confidential business data — common practices in studies the agency relies on when reviewing chemicals and assessing public health risks. Another rule the agency hopes to get out before Jan. 20 would change the cost-benefit analysis behind Clean Air Act regulations, making it tougher to account for some of the benefits of curbing air pollution. The rule change would also make it more difficult for future administrations to justify new air regulations. Critics say the two proposals would systematically undermine the agency going forward. “Those two are just killers for the whole foundation of the work of EPA,” said Betsy Southerland, director of the Office of Science and Technology at the EPA’s Office of Water during the Obama administration. Stan Meiburg, who served as the EPA’s acting deputy administrator under former President Obama, said “you can't just put your fingers on the scale by discounting the benefits” of reduced air pollution. “You have to count all the costs and all the benefits,” he added.

 Trump administration sued for failing to update efficiency standards for 25 appliances - Separate coalitions of 13 states and six environmental groups filed two lawsuits against the Trump administration Wednesday after it failed to update energy efficiency standards for 25 types of appliances. The standards cover appliances ranging from dishwashers to refrigerators to air conditioners that, without federal guidelines for efficiency improvements, may cost consumers an extra $580 billion in energy costs and release 2 billion metric tons of carbon emissions by 2050. “It’s astonishing that the Trump administration is failing to carry out this common-sense law that saves people money and reduces air pollution,Howard Crystal, legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Energy Justice Program, said in a release. “The climate crisis demands we do everything possible to reduce carbon emissions to ensure a livable planet, and we can’t afford to let the Department of Energy abdicate its responsibility.” The suits target the Department of Energy, which is required to update appliance standards every six years. The move follows other actions taken by the department to roll back efficiency standards for lightbulbs and another rule to exempt quick wash dishwashers from energy efficiency standards--even though most dishwashers already meet them. President Trump has been particularly vocal about efficiency matters, complaining about lightbulbs and low flow shower heads and toilets at campaign rallies. “The Trump administration’s abject failure to implement the energy conservation program is part of a broader pattern of disregard for consumers’ interests, climate change and basic common sense,” said David J. Hayes, executive director of the State Energy & Environmental Impact Center, which helped coordinate the state effort. “The administration is allowing appliances to consume more energy, while also seeking to ensure that the power grid itself remains dependent on more expensive, more polluting sources of electricity. Consumers pay the price at every step.”

New York sues Department of Energy over lapsed energy standards — New York’s Attorney General, Letitia James, announced that she was leading a coalition of states to sue the Trump Administration’s Department of Energy (DOE). James’s office says the Department has shirked its responsibility to update national energy efficiency standards. “The Trump Administration’s abandonment of its responsibility to update key energy efficiency standards is not only illegal, it also threatens to worsen air pollution and cost consumers billions of dollars,” said James. “This lawsuit seeks to enforce the law and compel prompt action to strengthen these critically important and impactful energy-saving measures.” Specifically, the suit alleges that 25 types of consumer and commercial products require strengthening standards. Otherwise, James says, the evolving equipment and technology will cost taxpayers over $580 billion, while dumping two billion tons of pollution into the atmosphere over the next 30 years. James says the DOE has failed to meet legal deadlines to review and update national energy efficiency standards for industrial equipment and home appliances like washers, dryers, refrigerators, freezers, microwaves, air conditioners, and water heaters. Deadlines were passed by Congress through the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) over four years ago, James says. The lawsuit alleges that, because these deadlines are unmet, citizens and businesses in those states risk having higher energy bills, an unreliable electricity grid, and even more polluting emissions. The EPCA’s standards cover products that use about 90% U.S. residential energy, 60% of commercial energy, and 30% of industrial energy. The DOE has estimated that efficiency standards enacted through 2016 will save more energy than the nation consumes in a year, and a savings of over $2 trillion on consumer utility bills by 2030.

New York faces a long road on electric vehicle commitments — Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration is confident New York will have 10,000 publicly accessible charging stations for electric vehicles by the end of 2021. The number of places drivers will be able to find those plugs, however, will be far more limited. Cuomo announced his current 10,000 stations goal in 2018 — his administration aiming to “make ownership of gasoline-powered vehicles obsolete.” But the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, which is overseeing efforts to bring the stations online, says that number refers to individual plugs for electric vehicles, not discrete stations throughout the state — an important distinction if the state hopes to alleviate “range anxiety” associated with the vehicles. The state appears to be lagging in the effort. Just getting to Cuomo’s goal will require construction to proceed over the next 14 months at a rate more than double the past year. There are currently about 6,500 charging plugs, including 800 at workplaces, across the state. And even if that threshold is met, clean energy boosters say the state needs to be more ambitious to cut transportation emissions to the level required under the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act. “We really just need to make sure we’re rightsizing infrastructure for a fully electric future,” said the Sierra Club’s Allison Considine. “Ten thousand isn’t going to cover that.” Boosting the number of charging facilities, and ultimately making electric vehicles easy for everyone to own and operate, is a key component of Cuomo’s effort to fight climate change. Despite the high-level commitment and state subsidies meant to spur the installation of new stations, New York currently has fewer than 2,000 separate public charging locations — a quarter of the roughly 8,000 traditional gas stations that dot the state, according to federal and state data. The state is behind in the rollout of fast chargers at service areas on the Thruway, a project that has languished for years and won’t be complete by the 2020 target. The state’s underlying goal — to hit 850,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2025 — has proven challenging, and a blue-ribbon panel on electric vehicle technology announced by the Cuomo administration in January has yet to convene.

Diesel fuel from soybean, canola and used cooking oil? See Grön's plan for $9.2B Baton Rouge plant - The Greater Baton Rouge Port Commission approved a land lease agreement Tuesday night with a Texas-based company that plans to build a renewable diesel plant that could be worth $1.2 billion in the first phase of what could be a multi-phase $9.2 billion development over nine years.  Grön Fuels LLC will initially pay the port $20,000 to lease 141 acres at the port, on the Intracoastal Waterway west of the Genesis Baton Rouge Terminal. The payment will go up to $100,000 at the end of 2021 and $500,000 at the end of 2022, unless the deal is terminated. Once Grön begins commercial operations or no later than the end of 2023, the base lease will be $3.5 million a year.“We think they will move forward quickly,” said Jay Hardman, the port’s executive director. Hardman said the firm has an air quality permit ready to file.Port officials said this was one of the biggest economic development deals in the past 20 years. The Grön facility is expected to support 1,000 construction jobs.The company expects to hire 340 employees by 2024 and ramp up to 1,025 by 2031 if all potential expansions are developed. Officials said the jobs would have an average salary of about $100,000.Officials with Grön, which is Swedish for “green,” told port commission members that the plant would use soybean and canola oil, tallow and used cooking oil to produce renewable diesel fuel. Unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel can be used in existing diesel engines, pipelines and storage tanks.The company said it has a letter of intent with the Colonial and Bengal pipelines to connect the refinery to existing pipeline systems. This will provide access to major demand centers in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Grön said. The Grön facility would initially produce 60,000 barrels of renewable diesel per day. In comparison, the nearby Placid crude oil refinery in Port Allen produces 75,000 barrels of oil a day.

Smithfield Foods and Dominion’s biogas plan a foul deal for Duplin, Sampson - Pork giant Smithfield Foods and energy giant Dominion Energy, in a joint venture called Align RNG, are collaborating to sell gas from multiple, polluting, industrial-scale pits full of hog feces and urine in North Carolina. They are using a nicer-sounding word for this operation, “biogas.” The project, called the Grady Road Project, will harm streams and rivers in eastern North Carolina, pollute our air and impact the health of families in Duplin and Sampson counties and beyond. We, the neighbors and residents who will be downstream from this project, must make our voices heard to ensure that people and not the polluters are protected at the only public hearing on this major project at 6 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 16. If approved, the Grady Road Project would be the first major project of its kind in the state. It would include trapping methane from 19 industrial scale, unlined pits of untreated hog waste in Duplin and Sampson counties; laying a maze of over 30 miles of pipelines over yet-unknown areas; and constructing a central facility where biogas is processed and injected into existing natural gas pipeline. At its core, the Grady Road Project relies on and furthers an outdated and unsafe system of storing untreated hog feces and urine in waste pits and spraying the untreated waste onto nearby land, where it pollutes our groundwater, rivers and streams, and our air. This harmful waste storage is called a lagoon and sprayfield system. The lagoon and sprayfield system makes people living near these industrial operations sick and overwhelms neighbors with foul odors. Researchers at Duke University found that North Carolinians who live near large swine operations have higher death and disease rates from a variety of causes than people who live farther away. People of color bear a disproportionate burden of foul odors and higher death and disease rates. Creating biogas from swine waste requires a cap over a waste pit, which aids in a process called “anaerobic digestion” and traps methane and carbon dioxide. Capping these lagoons results in a dramatic increase in harmful pollutants, including ammonia, in the liquid waste that remains in the lagoon and is then sprayed onto nearby fields where it runs off during rain, contaminating waterways. In addition, these waste pits are still susceptible to flooding and breaches during major rain storms, which are increasingly frequent and intense. Over 20 years ago, Smithfield promised to transition to cleaner systems for disposing of its hog waste, but the corporation hasn’t fulfilled its promise. Now, Smithfield and Dominion stand to make an enormous profit by displacing the burden of their primitive waste management practices onto our families and communities without investing in pollution prevention and following through on that two-decades old promise.

Underground electric transmission line moving ahead - Radio Iowa - A developer proposes building an underground, high power transmission line from north-central Iowa to northeastern Illinois. It would run 220 miles along railroad rights-of-way from Mason City to the Mississippi River, then on to Yorkville, Illinois, near Chicago. Soo Green spokesman Steve Frenkel, says it would be the first link in a major project that would send “clean” electricity to the East Coast. “When you look at states across the eastern half of the country, you’ve got stronger and stronger renewable energy standards being adopted,” Frenkel says, “and there just isn’t the low-cost renewable energy resource available in the eastern half of the U.S. compared to what the Midwest can offer in terms of scale and efficiencies.” The initial proposal would deliver two-thousand megawatts of power from the wind and solar farms in central Iowa to the East Coast, enough power to light 1.2 million homes. “The Midwest offers low-cost, highly efficient renewable energy development that can meet the needs of higher demand in population centers in the East where you’ve got a lot of ambitious clean energy goals,” Frenkel says. “We as a nation need a national clean energy grid and Soo Green could be the first link in what we’re calling a U.S. clean energy superhighway.”

Transmission troubles? A solution could be lying along rail lines and next generation highways | Utility Dive - Utility-scale renewables and flexible, distributed renewables, some of the basic elements of deep decarbonization, are growing rapidly, but the transmission system needed to deliver and integrate them is not. Recent studies, including the landmark and reportedly suppressed Department of Energy Seam study, show expanded transmission is critical. But two key barriers — where to put the new lines and how to pay for them — still slow development, according to a June 2020 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report to Congress. Allocation of the new lines' costs remains unresolved, but new approaches to siting are attracting attention."Siting is one of the most intractable barriers," but "largely untapped" rights-of-way (ROWs) on already developed "brownfields," such as railroads and highways, could "alleviate the problem," former FERC Chair James Hoecker wrote on behalf of the Rail Electrification Council (REC) ina July filing with FERC on transmission planning incentives.Hoecker's filing defines brownfields as "land already developed for another industrial or ground-disturbing purpose" and notes that "there are many potential kinds of available brownfields that may be suitable for co-development, railroads and highways among them."These railways and "next generation" highways, in which transmission lines, electric vehicle charging infrastructure and broadband/5G infrastructure are co-located, could bypass objections of private landowners on transmission siting and streamline deployment. Using existing ROWs is a feasible way to build the urgently-needed interregional transmission described in the Seam study, transmission authorities agreed. But to resolve the cost allocation barrier, stakeholders must recognize high voltage transmission's economic, reliability and resilience benefits, and its importance to deep power system decarbonization, they said.

Midwest utilities craft ambitious renewables, coal-retirement plans to meet goals — Six Midwest utilities have said they expect to spend more than a combined $15 billion over the next several years to install or buy roughly 4 GW of solar generation, more than 3.6 GW of wind generation and just over 1 GW of electric battery storage. Each of the utilities also said during third quarter 2020 earnings presentations that they intend to continue to retire long-held coal-fired capacity as they pursue carbon reduction targets that in most cases they have set for the years 2025, 2030 and 2050. The six Midwest utility holding companies -- the WEC Group, which serves mainly Wisconsin, Alliant, which serves both Wisconsin and Iowa, Xcel's Minnesota utility subsidiary, Michigan's CMS Energy and DTE Energy and Ameren Energy based in St. Louis, Missouri -- reported Q3 earnings in the last week of October and the first week of November and said they expect to retire a combined total of 5.8 GW of coal-fired capacity by the years 2022-2023. The utilities, which have a combined current generating capacity of 46.3 GW, are looking to replace their 5.8 GW of coal-fired capacity with 7.7 GW of new solar and wind over the next few years. While the combined total of future renewable investments among the six utilities came to $15.6 billion, the way they described their investments differed. WEC said it has a 2021-2025 capital plan for investing in its "efficiency and sustainability drives" that totals $16.1 billion, with "sustainable renewables" getting $4.1 billion of that total. The WEC Group also told analysts that it would be "allocating $1.9 billion for regulated renewables investing in carbon-free generation." Ameren Energy, which in September filed its 2020 integrated resource plan with Missouri state regulators, said it was aiming at 3,100 MW of wind and solar generation by 2030, "representing an investment of approximately $4.5 billion." After 2030, the company said, it will bring the total amount of renewables to 5,400 MW with a total investment of $8 billion.

 McKinley to keep fighting for coal-fired power plants   — A Democratic plan seeks to eliminate all carbon emissions in America by 2040, and U.S. Rep. David B. McKinley doesn’t think that is feasible. McKinley, R-W.Va., is working on a bill that would instead phase out carbon emissions to 20 percent by 2050. He is joined on this legislation by Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Oregon. The plan set forth by House Democrats in June seeks to eliminate all pollution from cars by 2035, from coal-fired power plants by no later than 2040, and to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “To get to zero percent, it takes a serious effort and time period to get to that,” McKinley said. “Their plan isn’t enough. They want to take it (coal-fired emissions) to zero percent by (as soon as) 2035. This is only 15 years from now — we would go from where we are now to zero emissions. “I know it is aspirational. It has some possibilities. But it is not realistic — not by 2035,” McKinley said. The only way zero emissions could be achieved would be to shut down all coal-fired power plants, he said. Natural gas power plants also emit carbon and could not be used under a zero emissions edict, McKinley noted. Natural gas pipelines already have been blocked from coming through New England, and McKinley said that area now is forced to import its natural gas from Russia. “We were trying to put Putin in a corner, and we turn around and buy our natural gas from Putin, Russia and L&G,” he said. The U.S. also is buying some hydroelectric power from Canada, according to McKinley “I just don’t know what is going to happen to West Virginia, Eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania when you can’t use coal for coal-fired power plants,” he said.

USDA awards grants, loans to local entities preventing 100+ job loss - Harlan Enterprise - With the help of a CARES Act Business and Industry loan guarantee to industries in Harlan County, over 100 jobs will be saved from the chopping block, including positions at JRL Coal and local law enforcement.United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Administrator for Rural Business-Cooperative Service Rebeckah Freeman Adcock announced and awarded the grant on Friday, which will help to improve public safety. “Kentucky’s coal country has been hit extremely hard, so saving well over 100 well-paying jobs will have a tremendous impact not only on the employees but their families and the community as a whole,” said Adcock. “Thanks to the leadership of President Trump and Agriculture Secretary Perdue, USDA Rural Development continues to be a valuable partner in helping rural businesses and communities across the commonwealth.”

AEP Announces Plans To Invest in Mitchell Plant in Moundsville - American Electric Power plans to keep Moundsville’s Mitchell Plant operating — with some new investments — as the energy company works toward complying with recently revised environmental regulations. The Mitchell Plant — a 1,560-megawatt, coal-fueled power plant that has been operating since 1971 — is one of four plants AEP will continue operating that will meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coal Combustion Residuals and Effluent Limitation Guidelines rules, according to a news release. Three of the four plants are in West Virginia — Mitchell, the Mountaineer Plant in New Haven and the Amos Plant in Winfield. The fourth is the Flint Creek Plant in Gentry, Arkansas. AEP will file compliance plans this month with the EPA for the coal combustion residuals rule, which provides a set of requirements for the safe disposal of coal ash. Because of that, AEP will remove 1,633 megawatts of coal-fueled generation by 2028. The company plans to close a Hallsville, Texas, plant in 2023 and a Pittsburg, Texas, plant in 2028. The other four plants will remain, and AEP said that it will build dry-bottom ash handling systems — which use air rather than water to handle their coal ash — or new lined ash ponds, which prevent chemicals from leeching into groundwater and surface waters. These new systems will meet the EPA requirements, the company said.

Quarterly losses continue to mount for Peabody; Company says bankruptcy again an option -Coal giant Peabody reported on Monday another quarter with multimillion-dollar losses and warned that the company may look to bankruptcy for the second time in five years.Peabody, the world’s largest private-sector coal company, faces a deep downturn in coal coupled with slashed energy demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. The company announced Monday $67 million in losses in its third quarter, better than the $83 million it lost over the same period last year. Still, Peabody losses this year now add up to more than $1.7 billion.“Adaptability remains paramount,” said Mark Spurbeck, Peabody’s chief financial officer, speaking on Monday’s earnings call. “We are adjusting to changing demand, resetting our cost structure, and ensuring financial flexibility. And while we’ve made solid progress, we’re committed to doing more.”The announcement continues a trend of bleak news from the coal business. The nation’s second-largest coal producer, Creve Coeur-based Arch Resources, announced last month that it would rapidly pivot toward an “exit strategy”to end its sale of coal for electricity generation, and focus on coal for steelmaking. Arch even removed the word “coal” from its name earlier this year.Peabody CEO Glenn Kellow said on Monday his company’s emphasis remains on steelmaking coal, too, and he outlined prospects for its prominent Australian mines to serve Asian demand. At the same time, Arch’s planned exodus from the electricity market may give Peabody a dose of help — specifically in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, the region that is the dominant supplier of coal for U.S. power generation, and where the companies run the nation’s two largest coal mines. With Arch’s departure, Peabody will remain “the low-cost P.R.B. producer,” Kellow said on Monday’s call.

IEEFA update: Peabody Energy flirts with bankruptcy—again - Just three-and-a-half years after emerging from its previous bankruptcy, Peabody Energy—the world’s largest private coal miner—admitted to investors on Monday that it could face yet another trip to bankruptcy court in the coming months. Peabody Energy's Quarterly RevenueCoal bankruptcies in the United States have become increasingly common. Cheap gas and renewable power have steadily replaced coal in the U.S., contributing to a death spiral of weak demand, low prices, and inefficiencies that has pushed large and small coal companies into insolvency. Prospects for a quick turnaround seem slim, given the bleak picture of the global coal market that Peabody painted for its investors. According to the company, demand for metallurgical coal used in steelmaking has yet to recover from the global impacts of the coronavirus, and the company expects only modest growth over the next several years. For thermal coal used in power plants, the company acknowledged sharp declines in global coal use from developed economies (see latest Q10, page 7) . Peabody once seemed relatively immune from the changes sweeping through the sector. The company’s global footprint includes a number of low-cost coal mines in the U.S. and Australia. Its crown jewel—the North Antelope Rochelle mine in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin—is the largest in the world. Yet some of its biggest rivals in the U.S. and internationally have outperformed Peabody by shifting away from thermal coal in favor of higher-value metallurgical coal used in steelmaking. Arch Resources now refers to its thermal coal mines as “legacy assets” that it plans to quickly wind down. But Peabody, with its massive suite of thermal coal mines, has been either unable or unwilling to pivot to a more profitable or financially sustainable business model. As a result, the company’s revenues have fallen dramatically since 2018. As recently as mid-2018, Peabody’s share price stood at $45. Now, it is below $1 per share—a critical threshold that could force the New York Stock Exchange to remove Peabody from its listings.

US nuclear lab partnering with utility to produce hydrogen (AP) — The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded just under $14 million for an attempt to build a hydrogen-energy production facility at a nuclear power plant in Minnesota with the help of a nuclear research lab in Idaho. Idaho National Laboratory and Minneapolis-based Xcel Energy will work on devising and building the facility, most likely at Xcel Energy’s Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Station in Red Wing, Minnesota. The project announced this week is part of the Energy Department’s strategy to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions using nuclear power to generate carbon-free energy. Vehicles using hydrogen fuel cells, for example, produce only water vapor and warm air as exhaust. Hydrogen could also be used in industry, such as in the production of steel. Xcel Energy officials said they have a large amount of wind-generated energy they supply to customers. Officials said the Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Station could make hydrogen when wind energy meets customer demand for electricity. Officials said the hydrogen would initially be used at the power plant but could ultimately be sold to other industries. According to its website, Xcel Energy provides energy to millions of homes and businesses across eight Western and Midwestern states, and has a goal of being 100% carbon-free by 2050. “Now we’ll be the first company to produce carbon-free hydrogen at a nuclear plant using this technology,” Tim O’Connor, Xcel Energy chief generation officer, said in a statement. The effort planned at the Minnesota plant will use a process called high-temperature steam electrolysis. Water is made out of three atoms: one oxygen and two hydrogen. The proposed project would use Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Station’s steam and electricity to split water and separate the hydrogen. Idaho National Laboratory will help with technical aspects of the project.

Contura found someone willing to take over its Cumberland coal mine - Contura Energy Inc. has found someone willing to take over its Greene County Cumberland mine and the reclamation liabilities that go along with it. Tennessee-based Contura has been under pressure from shareholders to accelerate its exit from thermal coal — the kind burned in power plants. It had already been planning to sell or close Cumberland by the end of 2022 and had canceled a capital project there that would allow the operation to be mined past that date. On Thursday, however, the company announced that Iron Senergy Holding LLC would get the stock of Contura’s Cumberland operations — an arrangement that avoids involving the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection in approving a permit transfer to the new company. For this, Contura is paying Iron Senergy $50 million — $20 million of it in cash. The rest will go toward Iron Senergy’s reclamation bonds, which are necessary to ensure that environmental damage from the development of the mine is remediated in the event that the operator fails to do so. It is not clear what kind of entity Iron Senergy is. Nothing public is available about the new company, which was incorporated in Delaware in July. Contura also did not provide details. According to Contura’s announcement, Iron Senergy “has expressed its intention to continue operating the Cumberland Mine past Contura’s previously announced planned exit at the end of 2022, thereby extending employment opportunities for the Cumberland workforce, providing a continued tax base for the local community, and sustaining business opportunities for Cumberland’s vendors and a reliable fuel supply for customers.” It also suggested Iron Senergy has an interest in pursuing renewable energy at the site. There are about 600 people employed at Cumberland. . Contura rose from the ashes of the bankruptcy of Alpha Natural Resources, with many of the old company’s top executives assuming the leadership of the new firm. In the past few years, the company has been trying to focus its operations on metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking and fetches a better price than thermal coal. Contura said the deal with Iron Senergy still needs to clear some hurdles before closing, which it anticipates will happen next month.

Browns Ferry Unit 1 Completes Refueling and Maintenance Outage - – The Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1 was safely returned to power production Saturday afternoon following a scheduled refueling and maintenance outage. The scheduled shutdown prepares the unit for the next two years of generating electricity for approximately 2.2 million homes.“We safely completed the necessary fuel replacement and maintenance to ensure Unit 1 provides reliable power to meet the energy needs of the Valley,” said Matt Rasmussen, Browns Ferry site vice president. “We did these tasks while keeping safety and employee health as our top priorities. We appreciate the continued commitment of our workforce in following additional health guidelines to keep everyone safe.”More than 10,500 work activities were completed during the outage, including the installation of 316 fuel assemblies. Other outage work activities included maintenance and upgrades to plant equipment, inspections and repairs of reactor components and refurbishment and testing of valves and electrical systems. Browns Ferry Unit 1 is one of seven operational Tennessee Valley Authority nuclear reactors.

PSEG wants three more years of nuclear subsidies A diverse group of consumer advocates, business groups and energy suppliers are once again forming a coalition to fight new attempts to have ratepayers pay subsidies to help keep New Jersey’s three nuclear plants operating. The coalition is comprised of roughly the same organizations that unsuccessfully opposed efforts by Public Service Enterprise Group and Exelon to obtain $300 million in annual subsidies from ratepayers two years ago, an outcome preventing the closing of the facilities. This time around, however, NJ Ratepayers United as the coalition calls itself, is fighting not only a new application to extend those subsidies for another three years but also unrelated proposals to restructure how the state goes about buying electricity for residents and most businesses. The latter proposals, offered by the companies earlier this year and the subject of a technical conference with state officials Monday, urge the state to withdraw from the regional power grid, PJM Interconnection. Instead, the state would set up its own entity for buying electricity in New Jersey, an option some argued would not undermine the goal of purchasing cleaner energy for customers. In comments submitted to the state Board of Public Utilities, PSEG argued its proposal to exit PJM could lower costs to consumers by hundreds of millions of dollars a year, while allowing increased purchases of renewable energy. Critics disputed those projections, claiming the proposal could increase costs by $300 million to $700 million a year. “Exiting our current regional market would create more uncertainty and higher electricity rates at a time when the state’s consumers can ill afford to pay even more,’’ said Evelyn Liebman, AARP New Jersey’s director of advocacy and a member of the coalition.

Gov. Abbott opposes West Texas waste site -The governor of Texas doesn’t want a proposed nuclear storage facility in his state near one of the most productive oil and gas basins in the nation.Gov. Greg Abbott sent a letter Nov. 3 to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission urging denial of Interim Storage Partners’ license to develop a facility to store up to 40,000 metric tons of uranium in Andrews County, Texas, in the Permian Basin.The Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico provides about 35% of the oil production in the United States and about 16% of its natural gas production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.The regulatory commission accepted ISP’s application in August 2018, and a draft Environmental Impact Statement released in May concluded that building the above-ground interim site would have “no discernible negative effects on the environment or natural resources.”The new site would be built near an exiting waste site owned by the state of Texas and managed by Waste Control Specialists, one of the partners of ISP. That site has stored low-level radioactive waste since 2012.Abbott wrote that he consulted with several different Texas governmental departments and agencies and concluded that the new facility could be a prime target for terrorists or saboteur activities.“The proposed ISP facility imperils America’s energy security because it would be a prime target for attacks by terrorists, saboteurs and other enemies. Spent nuclear fuel is currently scattered across the country at various reactor sites and storage installations. Piling it up on the surface of the Permian Basin, as ISP seeks to do, would allow a terrorist with a bomb or a hijacked aircraft to cause a major radioactive release that could travel hundreds of miles on the region’s high winds. Such an attack would be uniquely catastrophic because, on top of the tragic loss of human life, it would disrupt the country’s energy supply by shutting down the world’s largest producing oilfield.”Abbott noted that the concept of “interim” storage had to be taken with a grain of salt because the license would be for 40 years. Also, he wrote that the federal government apparently has “abandoned” Yucca Mountain in Nevada, which had been the chosen site of the U.S. Department of Energy from the 1980s to 2010 to build a permanent nuclear waste storage facility. In May 2010, the Energy Department withdrew its licensing application for such a facility.Abbott also contended that the transport of waste on railroads through Texas is not a good idea. He said some cities and counties in the state have passed resolutions barring transport of nuclear materials through their areas and said even a non-hazardous accident could cause harm to other industries that rely on the railways.

Not a single HB 6 'yes' vote lost their election. Some 'no' votes did. - Ohio Capital Journal  The scandal surrounding House Bill 6 took out the speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives. It has dominated the newspages and airwaves for months. It was the subject of countless campaign attack ads. In the end, voters didn’t seem to care. The scandal implicating former Speaker Larry Householder and his effort to get a nuclear bailout enacted into law emerged as a major theme in the 2020 Statehouse elections, but seemingly had little impact on the results. In total, there were 46 lawmakers who voted for House Bill 6 and were on the ballot this November for a seat in the Ohio House or Ohio Senate. The unofficial results show that every single one of them won their election: 46-for-46. That includes Householder himself, who won reelection to his 72nd District over a slate of write-in opponents. In contrast, there were 35 “no” votes who were up for election. Four of them have been voted out, and a fifth lawmaker’s race is too close to call. That’s a striking result considering the extent to which the scandal has enveloped Ohio politics since the July arrests of Householder and four political operatives. In recent months, news outlets have extensively covered an 81-page affidavit outlining the years of alleged corruption and bribery that went into HB 6 being enacted to benefit the former FirstEnergy Solutions of Akron. So too did news stories highlight the vote to remove Householder as the House leader; the ensuing trials; and the ongoing effort to get HB 6 repealed. Voters got one last reminder last week, when two people charged in the alleged scheme pleaded guilty. The years-long plot, as alleged by federal investigators, involved FirstEnergy Solutions funneling “dark money” toward a group controlled by Householder. These resources were used to get Householder and a number of other Republican allies elected to the Ohio House of Representatives. These allies joined with more than two-dozen Democrats to elevate Householder as House speaker in 2019. Within months, Republicans introduced the nuclear bailout bill and quickly pushed it through both chambers. It was signed into law by Gov. Mike DeWine in July 2019. The controversy surrounding the bill did not translate to any electoral trouble for its supporters and top backers. Both HB 6 sponsors were easily reelected: Rep. Shane Wilkin, R-Lynchburg, won another term in the 91st District by an unofficial margin of 77% to 23%, and Rep. Jamie Callender, R-Concord, won by an unofficial margin of 61% to 39% in the 61st District. State Rep. Shane Wilkin, R-Lynchburg Ten other bill cosponsors were up for election this year. All 10 won their contests. Four were unopposed, and the remaining six won comfortably — by an average margin of 35%. The remaining rank-and-file members who voted in favor of HB 6 and were up for election all were victorious as well.

Ohio Elections Commission may wait to consider complaints challenging Larry Householder’s use of campaign funds to finance his criminal defense -  – The Ohio Elections Commission has no immediate plans to take up a case filed by state officials challenging former House Speaker Larry Householder’s decision to pay nearly $1 million in legal fees to lawyers overseeing his criminal defense on federal corruption charges. The Elections Commission will hold its next monthly meeting on Dec. 17, but may wait to hold a preliminary hearing on the issue until January or later, said Phil Richter, the election commission’s director. But the commission may wait until Householder’s case is over before taking it up, he said.  That’s because Householder’s lawyers, responding to other complaints related to the corruption allegations, previously have declined to respond while the criminal case is ongoing, he said.“Even if I did send notice, all I’d get back is a ‘We’re taking the Fifth. We’re not making any comment on this.’ I wouldn’t have a whole lot of evidence or a whole lot to work with,” Richter said.“I appreciate the commission has said you can’t use campaign funds for criminal [defense] reasons,” Richter added. “You guys get to write the stories that say this is what they did, but we need evidence to establish that to be the case. We can’t assume that per se without some sort of evidence. So, I’m leery of going forward before we’d be able to get some sort of response from [Householder] to establish that.”Campaign finance records show that Householder has paid $920,000 from his campaign fund to two law firms defending him in federal court against federal corruption charges. The money came from donors who likely meant to help Ohio House Republicans retain their majority in the state legislatures, since Householder oversaw fundraising for the entire GOP caucus.The Ohio Elections Commission, which interprets election law in Ohio, repeatedly has found that spending campaign money on a candidate’s criminal defense is illegal under state law. It could refer the case for prosecution once it completes its review.Converting campaign funds for personal use is a first-degree misdemeanor in Ohio, punishable with up to six months and jail and a $1,000 fine. The OEC also could impose a $10,000 fine if it makes a referral to prosecutors.

Ohio’s head-in-the-sand legislature needs to act to remove the HB 6 stain - cleveland.com --Let’s examine the scorecard for House Bill 6 amid federal allegations it was the tainted fruit of the largest racketeering corruption case the Ohio Statehouse has ever seen.It makes for discouraging reading -- even moreso, since Ohio voters on Nov. 3 failed to repudiate the alleged corruption and or show any displeasure with lawmakers' failure to move quickly to repeal or replace the nuclear bailout bill.If the tainted HB 6 is not repealed soon, then, starting this Jan. 1 and for the next ten years, it will take more than $1 billion from Ohio ratepayers and give it to Akron’s Energy Harbor, current owner and operator of FirstEnergy Corp.'s two former nuclear plants. Yet voters on Tuesday returned all the principals involved in HB 6 to the Statehouse -- including disgraced former House Speaker Larry Householder, alleged ringleader of the alleged $60 million corrupt scheme, who won reelection in a landslide. Talk about irony: The only Republican legislator punished with electoral defeat was state Rep. Dave Greenspan, of Westlake, who cleveland.com has reportedstood up to the alleged co-conspirators and helped the FBI make its case.  Meantime, Ohio House Speaker Robert Cupp, who replaced Householder in the speakership (and voted for HB 6), has yet to schedule a vote on any repeal bill. In the Ohio Senate, President Larry Obhof says the “repeal” bill he favors is one that ends the nuclear and coal bailouts, but keeps HB 6′s evisceration of the state’s renewable energy portfolio standards, a true Bronx cheer to energy reformers. Why isn’t the Ohio legislature moving to remove the HB 6 stain? Simply put, they suspect Ohio voters don’t care. And maybe many don’t. But they should. And while the legislature twiddles its thumbs, others are acting.

FirstEnergy Terminates Two More Executives As HB6 Repeal Languishes in Legislature | WKSU - Akron-based FirstEnergy is at the center of a scandal that has rocked Ohio politics as well as the company’s front office. In late October, FirstEnergy fired its CEO and two other executives for violating company policy. In a filing Monday (see below), it announced two more executives, including the chief legal officer and chief ethics officer, have been dismissed.  It all centers around House Bill 6, an energy bill approved last year by the Ohio Legislature that dramatically altered the state’s energy policy.  The bill grants subsidies to keep open two Ohio nuclear plants owned by Energy Harbor, once a FirstEnergy subsidiary. Federal authorities allegeFirstEnergy gave big money to Ohio politicians to secure the bill’s passage. There have been calls—but no action yet—to repeal it.  Reporter and attorney Kathiann Kowalski has been covering the story for Eye on Ohio and Energy News Network. Kowalski says without repeal, there will be ramifications for Ohio ratepayers. "If there is no repeal, it will likely mean higher bills for Ohioans," Kowalski said. On average, the increase is expected to be about $7 a month "due to the nuclear plant subsidies, subsidies for two 1950s era coal plants and the elimination of the energy efficiency standard, plus gutting of the renewable energy standard."  Kowalski says House Bill 6 eliminated cost savings provided by the energy efficiency standard. The current speaker of the Ohio House, State Rep. Bob Cupp (R-Lima) has said that he wants to make repeal of House Bill 6 a priority for the rest of the lame duck session. "Honestly, we don't know what form that will take," Kowalski said. "There have been a variety of lawmakers pushing since August for a straight repeal of the bill. They tried to bring those up for a vote in early September. House leadership thwarted those efforts. So although repeal of House Bill 6 is on the agenda, we have to wait and see what form, if any, that will take." She points out that many legislators who voted in favor of House Bill 6 were re-elected this month. That includes the former speaker, who allegedly orchestrated the corrupt network, Larry Householder (R-Glenford).

 Ohio Republicans stuck on how to repeal nuclear bailout bill -Ohio's Republican representatives agree that a law authorizing $1 billion in taxpayer money to bail out two nuclear power plants was tainted by an indictment of its leading advocate on federal bribery and racketeering charges. But they don't agree on much else. Some House Republicans want to keep the law, calling it good public policy despite the scandal. Others want to scrap the nuclear, coal and solar subsidies in House Bill 6 while keeping the part lowering Ohio's renewable energy standards. And a bipartisan bill in the Senate would repeal the whole thing. "I don't think they know what they're going to do ... ," said Rep. David Leland, D-Columbus. "I think there's a conflict in their caucus."Time is running out.The 133rd General Assembly ends in December, which means any outstanding bills have to start from the beginning in 2021. And Ohioans will start paying toward those nuclear bailouts in January. That's why the Ohio Senate took an unusual step Tuesday, holding informal hearings on a bill that has yet to have its first hearing in the House. "We only have about six weeks left until the end of the year," said Senate President Larry Obhof, R-Medina. "We can't wait around for them to send us a bill on Dec. 10."So the Senate Energy committee took testimony from Rep. Mark Romanchuk, R-Mansfield. "House Bill 772 is not a full repeal of HB 6," Romanchuk said. "Rather it is a partial repeal that removes bad policy that harms Ohioans."It would repeal both the nuclear and coal bailouts as well as the federal request to spend Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) dollars helping people weatherize their homes. But it would keep cuts to renewable energy standards — something Democrats and a handful of Republicans were less than thrilled about. Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, wanted to raise the amount of renewable energy electricity service companies have to provide back up to 12.5% by 2026. HB 6 cut that number down to 8.5%. "If we are going to revisit this bill, we need to revisit all parts of this bill, not just the parts you don't like," Dolan told The Dispatch.But Obhof said those standards likely would be a sticking point for more conservative members who "historically oppose some of the mandates that drive up bills."There are a lot of competing ideas, Sen. Steve Wilson, R-Maineville, told his colleagues during Tuesday's hearing. "The whole idea of today was to be sure that this committee continues to build on its knowledge of this complex issue."Leland called it a diversion. "The good parts in the bill are such minor issues compared to the bailouts to the nuclear power companies, the $350 million de-coupling gift to FirstEnergy, the $444 million bailout to coal plants — one of them in the state of Indiana. Those are the major portions of House Bill 6... ," Leland said. "Everybody knows what House Bill 6 is about. It's about a bunch of people trying to create a bribery scandal." He wants to repeal the entire bill and then decide what parts — if any — to pass again.

New Injection Well Planned for Coitsville Site - – A second Class II wastewater injection well is planned for a site along U.S. Route 422 in Coitsville Township, according to records from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Bobcat Coitsville LLC has submitted an application to ODNR to drill a new injection well at the existing Northstar Collins #6 facility at 5000 McCartney Rd., ODNR records show. According to a proposed site plan filed with the application, the new well would be drilled 216 feet from McCartney Road and about 100 feet east of where an existing disposal well is located.Class II injection wells are used to store wastewater generated from oil and gas drilling operations in the Utica and Marcellus shale formations in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Bobcat Coitsville is a subsidiary of Bobcat Energy Resources, based in Canfield.  Nicholas Paparodis, Bobcat’s director of business development, said that the company is “expanding capacity at the site to meet demand.” ODNR has yet to approve a permit for the new well. Calls to ODNR were not returned.  The company acquired the Collins well in Coitsville and another well in North Lima from now-defunct D&L Energy in 2013 after that company declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. D&L’s owner, the late Ben Lupo, was convicted of violating the U.S. Clean Water Act and was sentenced to a year in prison.   Injection wells in the Mahoning Valley have become a source of heated debate since a 4.0 earthquake struck the region on Dec. 31, 2011. The quake and at least seven others earlier that year were tied to an injection well in Youngstown, then operated by D&L Energy.  The quakes led to a shutdown of all injection well activity in the vicinity, including the former D&L well in Coitsville and another in Girard.  Those opposed to injection wells say they pose a threat to the public and the environment, since they contain toxins used in the hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” process.Since then, however, injection well operations have restarted across the Mahoning Valley. Earlier this year, residents of the township became concerned when contaminated wastewater was observed overflowing from two of the holding tanks at the Coitsville site. Inspectors from ODNR determined that one valve malfunctioned while another one broke.

Ohio petrochemical project hits another snag; final announcement delayed to mid-2021 -A decision about whether a Thai-based company will proceed with a massive petrochemical plant in eastern Ohio has been delayed again, raising more doubts about whether the project will proceed.PTT Global Chemical is conducting another feasibility study of the proposed plant in Belmont County, a review that will delay a final decision until at least the middle of 2021, the Bangkok Post reported. The company's decision to review the project makes sense, said Kathy Hipple, a financial analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a Cleveland-based research group."There's still a lot of petrochemicals on the market. And demand is uncertain, post pandemic. But the broader (issue) is that the type of plastics that they were going to make -- the price has dropped a lot, since they first conceived of this project," she said."It no longer makes economic sense to invest $10 billion in building a petrochemical complex, when the demand for this product is uncertain, the price for the product is very low."The project was announced in 2015, and the company has repeatedly missed deadlines for making a final commitment to the project. Previous delays have been blamed on  the pullout of PTT's South Korean partner Daelim, the pandemic, the U.S.-China trade war and opposition from environmental groups. Now the company tells the Bangkok newspaper it must factor in the election of Democrat Joe Biden as president on its revisions.

Ohio Complaint System for Gas Industry 'Impossible' for Public to Use -  A three year investigation by the advocacy group Earthworks finds that regulators in Ohio failed to act on more than a third of complaints by residents living near oil and gas development.Earthworks looked into pollution from the oil and gas industry, and how Ohio handled citizen complaints from 2018 – 2020. It concluded that Ohio’s public complaint system is “effectively impossible for the public to use.” “There are a lot of barriers that we encountered in using the complaint system,” said Leann Leiter, one of the report’s authors. “I think would be even harder for the general public to try to squeeze in around the other activities of their lives, without a specialized set of knowledge.” As part of its investigation, Earthworks employed certified thermographers to use optical gas imaging (OGI) at oil and gas wells, natural gas compressor stations, and other industry infrastructure. OGI can make visible the unseen air pollution caused by intentional safety releases, equipment failures, and operator errors in oil and gas fields. In some cases, Earthworks found leaks of methane and volatile organic compounds like benzene. Based on these findings, the group along with residents filed 31 complaints with Ohio’s Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA), Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) and Department of Health. According to the report, the agencies took action to reduce pollution in nine cases (29% of complaints). In three cases (10%), regulators contacted facility operators and conducted inspections, but did not issue any violations. Twelve cases (39%) did not lead to any action by regulators. The results of the remaining seven complaints are unclear, as the cases remain open. The report also found Ohio agencies lack consistent protocols and policies on the handling of public complaints. “Neither OEPA nor ODNR have publicly issued any requirements for inspectors and other staff to respond to complainants in particular ways or within specific timeframes,” according to the report. It sometimes took multiple filings, repeated emails and phone calls to get a response on whether and how a complaint was being addressed. There was a clear “luck of the draw” element to the complaint filing process, with variability across regulatory districts and individual inspectors, according to the report.  In a 2019 investigation, The Allegheny Front found similar experiences of people who complained about the oil and gas industry to ODNR. An analysis of complaints to the agency from 2009 through 2018 showed that 2,906 complaints were specifically about the oil and gas industry. A deeper analysis of 2017 data found that of 389 complaints, three-quarters appeared to be unresolved.

Guest Commentary: Getting Real about Natural Gas and Jobs - From the governor’s office on down, we’re told that the natural gas fracking boom can lead to a manufacturing resurgence, particularly in the areas of resins and plastics. And Lord knows it’s needed, since the fracking boom itself has conspicuously failed to deliver on promises of economic recovery and job growth. Together the seven counties that produce over 90% of Ohio’s natural gas – Belmont, Carroll, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, and Noble – have seen jobs decline by 9% since the fracking boom began in 2007. Meanwhile, the rest of the state has seen an increase of 2%. So, it’s about time that the industry some called the region’s savior and an economic game-changer started delivering. But, if it does, it probably won’t be in manufacturing. Why not? First, while industry backers claim that the fracking boom has saved manufacturers billions of dollars and made Ohio more competitive, the facts say otherwise. It’s true that since 2008 natural gas prices for industrial users in Ohio have dropped by more than 40%. But, Ohio’s average price was much higher than the nation’s to begin with and it hasn’t dropped as much. As a result, at least 29 other states currently offer manufacturers a lower price for natural gas, making Ohio less, not more competitive. Second, industry economics are working against major petrochemical expansion in the region. That’s why in the more than four years since the Royal Dutch Shell ethane cracker plant in Beaver County, Pennsylvania was announced, not another major project has been greenlighted. In that time, three cracker projects have been cancelled or abandoned, the proposed Appalachian Storage Hub has failed to attract investors, and the only other major project still under consideration – a proposed cracker plant in Belmont County – has lost one principal investor and had its final investment decision postponed three times. Third, even if the Belmont County plant gets built, jobs growth will be minimal. There would be a temporary spike in construction jobs, but permanent employment would only be between 400 and 600 in a region that has lost over 7,000 jobs. And what of the expected downstream jobs in plastics manufacturing? There won’t be many.  The American Chemistry Council and the US Department of Energy, both major boosters of Appalachian petrochemical expansion, acknowledge that 90% of Appalachian cracker output would be shipped out of the region for manufacturing elsewhere. And, of the 10% that stays in the region, much of it will replace feedstocks currently sourced from the Gulf Coast. To the degree that happens, local petrochemical output will merely support existing jobs, not create new ones.  In short, just as job growth from the fracking boom failed to materialize, the same is likely to be true of a petrochemical buildout, if it ever happens. And we risk repeating the cycle of industry executives and politicians promoting glorious visions of jobs and prosperity in order to win taxpayer dollars and greater freedom to pollute our water and air only to be stuck again with the subsequent reality of few jobs, reduced quality of life, and increased demands on public services.

 Pa. gas-producing counties surged for Trump -- Thursday, November 12, 2020 -- President Trump made substantial electoral gains in Pennsylvania counties that produce natural gas, but they were offset by his dismal showing across the Philadelphia suburbs, according to an E&E News analysis.

 DEP publishes right-to-appeal notice regarding Leidy South Pipeline permits – Those opposed to the construction of a Natural Gas Pipeline slated to go through Clinton, Columbia, Lycoming, Luzerne, Schuyllkill, and Wyoming county can file an appeal with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. On Nov. 7, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) published a notice informing the public of the right to appeal the DEP's issuance of a Section 401 Water Quality Certification and related permits for the Leidy South Natural Gas Pipeline Project. The pipeline is intended to go through Clinton, Columbia, Lycoming, Luzerne, Schuylkill, and Wyoming Counties.The notice states:“Any person aggrieved by this action may file a petition for review pursuant to Section 19(d) of the Federal Natural Gas Act, 15 U.S.C.A. § 717r(d), with the Office of the Clerk, United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, 21400 U.S. Courthouse, 601 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1790 as provided by law. This paragraph does not, in and of itself, create a right of appeal beyond that permitted by applicable statutes and decisional law. Important legal rights are at stake, so you should show this document to a lawyer promptly.” To read more information about the permits granted for the Leidy South Pipeline project, refer topages 6,319 through 6,322 of the Pennsylvania Bulletin.

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection orders ETC Northeast Pipeline to keep natural gas out of unstable sections -  The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has issued an order to prevent the ETC Northeast Pipeline from placing natural gas in what the department said are "unstable sections" of the Revolution Pipeline throughout Allegheny, Beaver, Butler and Washington counties. According to a press release from DEP, ETC notified the department that it planned to start operations at its Revolution Pipeline on Oct. 20 but ETC allegedly did not specify when natural gas would be placed into the pipeline's network. DEP said it has raised concerns with ETC about placing natural gas into possible unstable sections of the pipeline and added that doing so could impose dangers to people and the environment. DEP said its concerns come following a Sept. 18, 2018 landslide that occurred along the pipeline's path in Center Township, Beaver County. Following the landslide, DEP said a section of the pipeline separated and allowed for methane gas to escape which allegedly resulted in a fire that burned across several acres and destroyed a home and numerous vehicles. As a result, DEP executed a consent order and agreement in Jan. 2020 that assessed a $30.6 million civil penalty against ETC. DEP argues that there are currently "numerous unstable slopes along the pipeline route" and said it is concerned that should another landside occur, the resulting damage could be worse than the incident in 2018. The DEP order will remain in effect until it issues written approval of ETC's stability design of the pipeline and a written determination that "the stability analyses and permanent stabilization plans have been fully implemented."

DEP blocks restart of Revolution pipeline, saying steep slopes still a risk - Pennsylvania environmental regulators are forbidding the operator of the Revolution pipeline that exploded in 2018 from filling the line with natural gas or liquids until the company addresses unstable slopes along its route. ETC Northeast Pipeline LLC told the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection on Oct. 20 and Nov. 3 that it plans to put the pipeline into service soon, but did not specify when gas would begin flowing, DEP said. In response, DEP ordered the company on Wednesday not to fill the pipeline — or to empty it if it has already been filled — until receiving DEP approval of plans to permanently stabilize 26 sites along steep or unsteady slopes, like the one that slipped in Beaver County in 2018 and caused the pipeline to rupture.The explosion destroyed a home, displaced residents, burned several acres and collapsed six high-voltage electric transmission towers, the agency said. “There are currently numerous unstable slopes along the pipeline route,” DEP said in a press release Thursday. Another landslide and rupture “could be worse than the explosion in 2018 because the pipeline’s contents would be more explosive with the addition of natural gas liquids. This would cause a significant pollution event and pose a great danger to human health, safety and the environment.” The 40-mile Revolution pipeline route crosses parts of Butler, Beaver, Allegheny and Washington counties, linking Marcellus and Utica shale wells with a gas processing plant.ETC Northeast Pipeline is a subsidiary of Texas-based Energy Transfer Corp.The company paid a record $30.6 million fine in January and agreed to shore up landslide-prone areas and ensure that the pipeline is secured in bedrock or dense soil along steep slopes.Since then, the company accrued hundreds of new violations as it struggled to keep the unsteady earth in place. In September, it began rerouting the pipeline around the site of the explosion in Center Township.  DEP said the company has failed to submit required stability designs demonstrating enhanced safety factors along steep slopes and has “repeatedly stated to DEP that it has no intention of doing so.” The agency identified 26 slopes as unstable and prohibited the company from flowing gas through the line in those sites, which are distributed across nearly all the pipeline’s route.

DEP Prevents Gas Transport in Revolution Pipeline Until It Is Stabilized - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection ordered a pipeline company not to put volatile substances into unstable sections of the Revolution line, to prevent what the agency says could be a danger to the community and the environment.The DEP says ETC Northeast Pipelines, LLC, a subsidiary of pipeline company Energy Transfer, must stabilize the line before using it to transport natural gas or natural gas liquids.The pipeline company recently told DEP that it intends to put the Revolution Pipeline into service in Butler, Beaver, Allegheny and Washington counties. DEP said the company failed to submit the required stability designs for numerous unstable sectionsthat the state has identified. In 2018, a landslide occurred in Beaver County and a section of the pipeline separated, allowing methane gas to escape. It ignited, and then exploded. The resulting fire burned several acres of forestland, caused evacuation of nearby residents, and destroyed a family’s home. In January 2020, DEP issued a consent order and agreement (COA), and $30.6 million civil penalty against Energy Transfer for violations that led to the incident.  DEP said Thursday that Energy Transfer is in violation of the consent agreement requirements for designs “that achieve an adequate factor of safety where [Energy Transfer] constructed the Revolution Pipeline across steep slopes and hillsides.”Now, the company intends to transmit not only natural gas, but potentially more dangerous natural gas liquids, according to DEP spokesperson Lauren Fraley.“The impact of a future landslide and pipeline separation, could be more dangerous, and cause more pollution than the explosion in 2018, because of the addition of natural gas liquids into the pipeline,” Fraley said.The order remains in effect until the agency determines the company has submitted and implemented stabilization plans.“DEP is not telling the full story regarding the stabilization work,” said Energy Transfer spokesperson Alexis Daniel in an email to The Allegheny Front. “Any areas where stabilization work has been approved have been completed or are actively in the stabilization process.”  She said DEP has not approved the company’s requests to do additional stabilization work, and that independent analysis found the pipeline is built in stable soil. Daniel disputes the company is in violation of the consent agreement. She said the company looks forward to talking with DEP “instead of exchanging information in a public forum.

Generation share for gas in the US Northeast likely to fall this winter as prices rise  — As more winter-like temperatures arrive across the US Northeast, rising cash prices there could begin to pressure market share for gas as power generators switch away from the fuel in favor of coal. In just the past several trading days, spot gas prices have been up sharply in both the Northeast market area and at upstream supply hubs in Appalachia. At Transco Zone 6 New York, the cash market surged more than 40 cents Nov. 11 to $1.90/MMBtu. At the nearby Texas Eastern M3 hub, prices climbed about 30 cents to $1.76/MMBtu. Just several days prior, both locations recorded record-low settlement prices at less than 30 cents/MMBtu. A similar rally in Appalachia also lifted prices from recent record lows around 30 cents/MMBtu. At Dominion South, the cash market climbed about 25 cents on Nov. 11 to $1.63/MMBtu. At Columbia Gas Appalachia the market added nearly 40 cents to trade at $2.12/MMBtu, preliminary settlement data from S&P Global Platts data showed. Over the next week, Northeast cash markets are likely to continue strengthening as colder weather finally arrives in the region. According to an updated forecast from S&P Global Platts Analytics, Northeast temperatures will average nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit below normal over the next seven days, boosting residential-commercial gas demand by nearly 50% compared to its month-to-date average. As the extended shoulder season comes to an end, forward markets are expecting Northeast gas prices to climb further and trade well-above last winter's averages. With some market-area hubs priced at $4 to $5/MMBtu for January and February, gas could quickly fall out of favor in the PJM Interconnection – an ISO that includes key markets such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. Recently, coal-fired generation in PJM has seen incremental gains at the expense of gas. According to Platts Analytics, these gains can be attributed to gas-fired generation outages and more coal-fired generation offering into the market as a price taker. Month-to-date, generation share for coal has climbed to an average 22% this month, compared with 16% and 17%, respectively, in October and September. Over the same period, gas share in the PJM generation stack has fallen to an average 31% – down nearly 9 percentage points compared to October and 10 percentage point compared to September. As gas prices continue rising – particularly at downstream hubs such as Transco Zone 6 New York and Texas Eastern M3 – market share for gas could continue falling as power generators shift increasingly to coal. In November, the $/MWh fuel cost ratio for coal vs. gas has fallen to an average 1.25 in PJM – down from an average 2.75 in September. As that ratio dips below 1, coal generation becomes cheaper than gas, likely making it the preferred fuel among power producers, S&P Global Platts data shows.

Oil spill cleanup continues along Delaware, Maryland Coast - Crews are continuing a cleanup operation from an oil spill that affected a significant stretch of coastline in Delaware and Maryland. The response crews have cleared oily debris and tar balls from the southern side of the Indian River Inlet in Delaware to the Assateague Island State Park in Maryland, the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control said this week. Beaches in Maryland are no longer affected by the spill. The spill was detected Oct. 19 as oil washed ashore at Broadkill Beach in Delaware and was spread by tidal action. Crews have removed an estimated 75 tons of oily sand and debris from coastal areas. We got tons of oily debris and weathered oil off our beaches, but were not done yet, DNREC Secretary Shawn Garvin said. Our experts continue to survey our coastline, assessing the cleanup operation, and as we move ahead, conducting final evaluations of our beaches to make sure the job is done. The source of the spill has not been determined. The oil was described as heavy fuel oil likely leaking from an operating vessel, not crude oil from the hold of a tanker. The U.S. Coast Guard has said oil samples are being analyzed by its Marine Safety Laboratory to try to find what is essentially a petroleum fingerprint that might help determine the source of the spill. The Coast Guard is covering the costs of the cleanup. The agency said that if the source of the spill is identified, the responsible party will be required to reimburse the agency. The beach in Lewes remains closed, officials in Delaware said. Officials are urging people visiting other affected beaches to stay out of the water and not walk along the wrack or high tide line.

Oil spill clean-up along Delaware coast nears completion - Delaware’s beaches are close to getting an “all clear” following last month’s oil spill in the Delaware Bay. The state and U.S. Coast Guard are making a final assessment after weeks of cleanup. Gordon’s Pond, North Shores Beach, Rehoboth Beach and Dewey Beach are the only sites requiring a final sign off before cleanup is considered complete. About 75 tons of oily debris have been removed from sites ranging between Dewey Beach to Assateague Island. The source of the spill is still unknown. The U.S. Coast Guard continues to analyze oil samples. The responsible party would be required to reimburse the federal government for the cleanup. The Delaware Audubon Society has offered a $2,000 reward for information about the source of the spill. The public is encouraged to report any sighting of large tar balls on the shore.

Source of oil spill still unknown as local beaches deemed cleared - With the source of the recent oil spill on the Delaware Bay still a mystery, a collaborative cleanup effort between the U.S. Coast Guard and the state Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Control is nearly complete, officials said earlier this week. The cleanup has been ongoing for about three weeks, since oily debris and tar balls began washing ashore along Delaware Bay beaches and then on Atlantic Ocean beaches in Delaware and Maryland. “Cleanup crews under the unified command have successfully cleared all Delaware Bay beaches and another stretch of Atlantic Ocean coastline of oily debris and tar balls,” DNREC officials stated on Tuesday, Nov. 10. After the latest assessment of shorelines late Tuesday, they said, only Gordon’s Pond at Cape Henlopen State Park, North Shores Beach, Rehoboth Beach and Dewey Beach required final sign-off by authorities overseeing the cleanup. The unified command will continue to survey beaches and dispatch cleanup crews as necessary, they noted. During the cleanup thus far, more than 75,000 tons of oily debris had been removed from area beaches stretching from Broadkill Beach on the Delaware Bay to Ocean City, Md. High-tech efforts used in the investigation into the source of the spill included drones and highly specific testing of the oil sludge and of oil from ships that had been in the area when the oily debris was first seen on Oct. 19. Such testing, which incident chief Lt. Cmdr. Frederick Pugh of the U.S. Coast Guard said was akin to DNA testing, has not produced any matches at this point. One ship was tracked to Corpus Christi, Texas, but oil specimens from that ship were found not to match the oil debris washing up on the Delaware beaches. As crews conduct final assessments, DNREC warned beachgoers to avoid any remaining oily debris deposited along the high tide line, also known as the “wrack line.” The public is being asked to continue reporting sizeable sightings of oiled debris, tar balls or oil-covered wildlife.

ELPC and MiCAN appeal judge decision that excluded climate change impacts in Line 5 permit — The Environmental Law & Policy Center (ELPC) and the Michigan Climate Action Network (MiCAN) today filed an appeal with the Michigan Public Service Commission to allow consideration of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from Enbridge’s Line 5 oil pipeline tunnel during the permit application review. Michigan Administrative Law Judge Dennis Mack recently denied the groups’ request. ELPC and MiCAN intervened in the Enbridge Line 5 tunnel case because the large quantity of oil transported in the pipeline after a new tunnel is constructed for a much longer time than would otherwise be the case and would be a meaningful contributor to global warming. Climate scientists have shown that lawmakers must take swift action to stop the release of carbon to the atmosphere to avoid environmental and human harm. After ELPC and MiCAN were granted intervention, Enbridge argued that the scope of the case must be limited so that the Commission cannot consider greenhouse gas emissions and climate change as among the environmental impacts of the project. ELPC and MiCAN countered that the Michigan Environmental Protection Act does not limit the types of environmental impacts considered in administrative hearings about projects like Line 5, and that it certainly makes no sense to ignore climate change, which scientists say is the single greatest threat to our environment today and will continue to be so for decades to come. As scientists have come to a better understanding of the current and potential damage of global warming, CO2 contribution from oil pipelines is being considered in a handful of permit cases around the country.

Whitmer moves to shut down Enbridge's Line 5 — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is moving to shut down Line 5 by revoking and ending a 1953 easement that allows Enbridge Energy to run the dual pipeline through the Straits of Mackinac. The announcement was welcomed Friday by environmental groups as protecting the Great Lakes and attacked by neighboring Ohio's governor and energy groups as costing jobs and raising fuel and heating prices for consumers. The Democratic governor said Friday she has filed a lawsuit seeking validation of the action in Ingham County Circuit Court. Enbridge must shut down the pipeline by May under the notice. The pipeline presents an "unreasonable risk" to the Great Lakes in violation of the public trust doctrine, Whitmer said in a statement with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. "Moreover, the state is terminating the easement based on Enbridge’s persistent and incurable violations of the easement’s terms and conditions," the press release said. Enbridge is reviewing the notice it received Friday afternoon and said there is no "credible basis" for revoking the easement. In reviewing the easement, the DNR operated in a "non-public manner" and rejected Enbridge's offer to discuss questions with the company's technical experts, the company said. The conduct goes against the 2018 agreement between the state and oil company, Enbridge said, citing the pact with the administration of Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder. “This notice and the report from Michigan Department of Natural Resources are a distraction from the fundamental facts,” said Vern Yu, executive vice president and president of liquid pipelines for Enbridge. “Line 5 remains safe, as envisioned by the 1953 Easement, and as recently validated by our federal safety regulator." Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine's office said the Republican governor's position on the closure of Line 5 remains unchanged from what was expressed in a July 2019 letter to Whitmer, in which he said the closure would cost more than 1,000 union jobs, create potential fuel cost spikes and lead to airline schedule disruption. Ohio's two refineries near the Michigan border supply fuel to Ohio and southeast Michigan, including the Detroit Metro Airport, DeWine said in the letter. "We ask that you please consider options to improve the safety of Line 5 that does not result in taking the pipeline offline," he wrote.

Federal court grants stay of Mountain Valley Pipeline waterbody construction - The Mountain Valley Pipeline’s legal limbo continued Monday as a panel of federal judges granted a stay of construction of the pipeline across about 1,000 waterbodies in West Virginia and Virginia. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals granted the stay following oral arguments as it considered whether to grant a previous request by conservation groups for a longer stay barring construction of the pipeline across streams in West Virginia and Virginia. The court had granted a temporary administrative stay on Oct. 16, and its Monday stay, via a brief order without explanation, will remain in effect until it decides whether to overturn water permitting from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the project. Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club, the West Virginia Rivers Coalition and the West Virginia Highlands Conservancy, challenged the corps’ September reissuance of Nationwide Permit 12 approval. The 4th Circuit had, in 2018, vacated the Nationwide Permit No. 12 issued by the Huntington District of the corps the previous year. During Monday’s oral arguments, the court questioned whether it had the authority to consider aspects of the case concerning the pipeline, which is designed to be a 303-mile natural gas pipeline system traveling from Northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia crossing Wetzel, Harrison, Doddridge, Lewis, Braxton, Webster, Nicholas, Greenbrier, Fayette, Summers and Monroe counties in the Mountain State. Derek Teaney of Appalachian Mountain Advocates, counsel for the environmental groups petitioning for a stay, argued that the court does have jurisdiction and that the Nationwide Permit 12 required to cross streams as reissued by the Corps of Engineers is unlawful. Under Nationwide Permit No. 12, projects do not need separate permits for individual waterbodies. “It’s right to press pause to allow the court to fully review water-crossing permits impacting over 1,000 streams and wetlands,” said Angie Rosser, executive director of the West Virginia Rivers Coalition. “Concerns raised about the legality of permits, coupled with MVP’s poor track record, warrant taking time to make sure mistakes aren’t made that will be regretted later.”

Fourth Circuit Stays MVP's New Stream-Crossing Permits Pending Appeal in Latest Setback The oft-delayed and increasingly costly Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP) has encountered another legal setback, as the natural gas conduit’s stream-crossing permitting has again been put on hold pending an ongoing review by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. The Fourth Circuit issued a stay Monday after hearing oral arguments in a case filed by environmental groups challenging the Nationwide Permit 12(NWP 12) approvals issued to the embattled pipeline by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The Army Corps recently renewed the project’s NWP 12 authority, which had been on hold following an unfavorable 2018 ruling from the Fourth Circuit. Environmental groups, led by the Sierra Club, wasted little time in asking the circuit court to rule against the new permits.The Fourth Circuit, which has ruled against MVP and the now-canceled Atlantic Coast Pipeline on multiple occasions in recent years, offered little in the way of explanation for its decision in Monday’s order, stating only that “an opinion as to the court’s reasoning will follow at a later date.”Breaking down the back and forth during oral arguments Monday, analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC observed that the judges presiding over the case “appeared to poke holes in the arguments offered by both sides.”Hearing the arguments were Chief Judge Roger L. Gregory, nominated by President Clinton, and Judges James A. Wynn Jr. and Stephanie D. Thacker, both nominees of President Obama. “The court has now converted the current administrative stay to a conventional stay pending the conclusion of their review of Sierra Club’s appeal,” the ClearView analysts said. “With the stay now extended for the duration of the appeal, the waterbody crossing work dependent on this permit may not take place until the court rules on the underlying appeal.“Therefore, in order to resume work in 2021 and meet its recently revised guidance to be in service in the second half of 2021, the Corps and MVP would need to prevail” in the case.MVP’s developers are “disappointed” with the Fourth Circuit’s latest decision, according to spokesperson Natalie Cox for project sponsor Equitrans Midstream Corp. (EQM).“We are hopeful and expect that once the case is reviewed on the merits of the arguments there will be a different conclusion,” Cox told NGI. “Although the Nationwide Permit 12 is certainly important to MVP, the crews are continuing with all other aspects of the project — including forward construction work in various upland areas along the route, as authorized and permitted.“In addition, the project team is continuing its activities to maintain and enhance erosion and sedimentation controls and complete final restoration work along portions of the right-of-way, which is the most protective measure for the environment.”Since receiving a certificate of convenience and necessity from FERC in 2017, MVP has faced numerous challenges in its efforts to construct the 300-mile, 2 million Dth/d interstate pipeline, designed to transport Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas from West Virginia to an interconnect with the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line in southwestern Virginia.MVP only recently received authorization to resume construction after a prolonged delay amid challenges to multiple federal permits

Mountain Valley Pipeline faces another legal roadblock. What does that mean for the long-embattled project?  - Yes, Mountain Valley Pipeline is still kicking. Although some activists were confident in the wake of the July cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline that Mountain Valley would soon follow suit, the project keeps plugging along even as costs rise, its timeline is extended and the courts continue to cast a skeptical eye on permits issued by federal agencies. Given the intricacies of pipeline development and the legal challenges that surround it, you could be forgiven for only having a fuzzy understanding of where the project stands. Nearly every aspect of the pipeline remains in dispute, from the public’s need for it (Mountain Valley says the Southeast faces a natural gas shortage, while opponents point toan oversupply of the resource within the region) to how much of the project is completed (Mountain Valley says 92 percent, while opponents say the estimate should be just over 50 percent and federal regulators have calculated only 84 percent has been installed).  After a year’s pause in pipeline construction, though, work is cranking up again, and both sides are preparing to begin their fight anew. Here’s some key things to know about where Mountain Valley stands and where it may be headed. In October 2019, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered that all construction on Mountain Valley except restoration and stabilization activities “cease immediately” after the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals found flaws in the project’s required U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service permit.This October, in the wake of a new authorization from Fish and Wildlife, FERC on a 2-1 vote lifted the stop-work order, contending that “completion of construction and final restoration … is best for the environment and affected landowners.” Opponents have already mounted a legal challenge.Not included in the ruling? A 25-mile stretch of the pipeline route known as the “exclusion zone” that crosses through Virginia’s Jefferson National Forest. Approval to cross these lands is required from the U.S. Forest Service, but a prior authorization was struck down in 2018. A new environmental study from the Forest Service has been working through the review process and faces significant opposition.On Monday the Richmond-based 4th Circuit issued a ruling that effectively bars Mountain Valley from continuing any construction related to its crossing of hundreds of streams, rivers and wetlands in Virginia and West Virginia until a broader case about the validity of its water-crossing permit is settled. Project opponents — which include the Sierra Club, Appalachian Voices and Chesapeake Climate Action Network, among others — had argued that “irreparable harm” to the environment would result if stream-crossing work wasn’t halted before the resolution of the larger case. In August, Diana Charletta, president and chief operating officer of Mountain Valley developer Equitrans Midstream, told analysts on an earnings call that the company intended to try to cross “critical” streams “as quickly as possible before anything is challenged.”  MVP attorney George Sibley told the 4th Circuit that the developer’s haste is in recognition “that our opponents are implacable.” “We have the authorizations,” he said Monday. “We are not going to wait to get sued and wait for those lawsuits to be resolved.”

Forest fracas: Activists and lawyers continue pipeline fight in western Virginia - In July, the 600-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline was canceled, sending shock waves through the energy industry and sparking jubilant celebrations from activists who had spent years fighting the project. There’s no rest for the weary, though. Further west, a little deeper into the Appalachian hills, another fight rages on. The Mountain Valley Pipeline, if completed, would pull natural gas from the prehistoric Marcellus Shale deposits underneath West Virginia and carry the fuel 300 miles to southern Virginia. After six years of opposition from grass­roots groups and professional environmental advocacy organizations, the fight over the MVP is entering a definitive stretch. On October 9, a long-standing stop-work order for the pipeline was lifted, allowing construction to resume along most of the pipeline’s length. Then, on November 9, federal judges once again halted work to allow for further examination of a key stream-crossing permit. The pipeline’s opponents say the regulatory agencies charged with making sure construction unfolds lawfully have been asleep at the wheel. They’re making their case in both the forest and the courtroom. EQT, the energy corporation spearheading the project, says the MVP is 92 percent complete. Activists who oppose the project say that’s an overstatement, and that the real figure is closer to 78 percent. Either way, “it’s over $3 billion over budget and three years behind schedule,” says Joan Walker, senior campaign representative for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Dirty Fuels Campaign. “And that’s an optimistic outlook.” “It’s been a long, long opposition,” says Kirk Bowers, co-founder of the Mountain Valley Watch, a volunteer pipe­line oversight organization. The group monitors pipeline construction and submits reports of violations to the various state and federal agencies that are supposed to be overseeing the project, hoping the agencies will then slap the project with sanctions. This monitoring plays an important role in the ongoing pipeline legal debates. “Over 350 instances have been charged,” says Walker. “There have been many more water quality violations, permit violations that have been found by volunteers in the field, like Kirk Bowers and Mountain Valley Watch, that didn’t result in formal charges.” These activists, years into this conflict and staring down a huge corporation, still have energy to spare.

Judge orders tree-sitters down after more than 2 years — After spending two years, two months and seven days in the trees — where they have maintained an aerial blockade of the Mountain Valley Pipeline — protesters were told Thursday that they have four more days. A temporary injunction issued by Montgomery County Circuit Judge Robert Turk ordered the three unidentified tree-sitters and 10 of their supporters to be gone by Monday. While Mountain Valley has a legal right to a 125-foot-wide easement on which the natural gas pipeline will be built off Yellow Finch Lane, it has been unable to cut trees out of fear that it will harm the protesters in and around them. If the defendants do not leave the property that has been occupied since Sept. 5, 2018, by Monday, “the Sheriff’s Office shall thereupon take such measures as are necessary to remove them,” the order entered by Turk reads. Left unsaid in the order and during a two-hour hearing that preceded it was how the protesters might be extracted from tree stands about 50 feet off the ground on a steep, wooded slope near Elliston. In the past, more short-lived standoffs have been ended by state police, who used a hydraulic crane topped with a railed platform to reach and remove opponents chained to excavators and other high perches along the pipeline right of way. But the difficult terrain — not to mention the feisty determination of a group of mostly anonymous activists — could make the job at Yellow Finch more challenging. There was no legal battle Thursday; the defendants did not show up for their court hearing and did not have lawyers to represent them. They have not been reluctant to tangle with Mountain Valley employees, though, and signs posted at the tree-sits declare “We’re here to stay” and “Doom to the Pipeline.” Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox said the company expects the opponents to follow Turk’s order. If not, she wrote in an email, “we will work with law enforcement to identify appropriate steps for ensuring the unlawful activity does not continue.” The 303-mile pipeline being built through West Virginia and Southwest Virginia has drawn fierce opposition from those who say it is scarring the landscape, polluting streams and contributing to climate change by advancing a fossil fuel over renewable energy. For the most part, Mountain Valley does not know the names of the protesters who take turns living on wooden platforms that went up two years ago in a white pine and a chestnut oak. A third tree-sit was erected in March.

US natural gas futures fall on lower demand - Markets -  US natural gas futures slipped 1% on Monday as forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand overshadowed optimism around a potential COVID-19 vaccine. Front-month gas futures fell 2.9 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.859 per million British thermal units. The contract touched its lowest since Oct. 20 at $2.821 earlier in the session. "Prices are easing from early session short-covering as mid-day weather models are running and they continue to forecast a warmer than normal short-term pattern, which is not supportive given current supply and storage levels," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. "For prices to recover, we need to see a colder weather pattern shift for late November," he added. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 216 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 US states, well below the 30-year average of 278. Refinitiv predicted demand, including exports, would fall to an average of 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 98.1 bcfd in the prior week. Gas production in the Lower 48 US states has averaged 88.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October. Earlier in the day, Pfizer Inc announced its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on initial data from a large study, boosting market sentiment among investors. Meanwhile, the amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants hit a record 10.2 bcfd last week and was expected to remain near that level in coming weeks after a rise in global prices in recent months prompted buyers in Europe and Asia to purchase more US gas. In the spot market, mild weather this week cut next-day gas prices at the Dominion South hub in southwest Pennsylvania and Transco Z6 in New York to their lowest since October 2017 and September 2016, respectively. 

Natural Gas Futures Rebound as Weather Forecasts Stabilize, Spot Prices Mount, and Pandemic’s Potential End in Sight - Regional heating demand is expected to heighten along with colder temperatures in the Mountain West and snow over the Northern Plains this week, helping to counter warmth elsewhere across the Lower 48 and fueling a long-awaited rally on Tuesday in natural gas futures. Over the prior six trading sessions, the prompt month shed nearly 50 cents.The December Nymex contract settled at $2.949/MMBtu on Tuesday, up 9.0 cents day/day. January climbed 7.4 cents to $3.073.  NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced along with the blasts of cold, rising 19.5 cents to $2.450. “Weather systems with rain and snow will sweep across the West and Northern Plains with chilly highs of 20s to 50s for locally stronger demand,” NatGasWeather said. The system took hold Tuesday and was expected to linger for much of the week “for minor bumps in national demand.” Between Monday and Tuesday, weather models added a few heating degree days (HDD) because of the trending systems, the forecaster said. That noted, domestic heating demand could soon fade. The weather outlook “remains solidly bearish” in other parts of the country and overall for November. “Warmer-than-normal conditions continue across the southern and eastern” United States, “with highs of 60s to low 70s for the Great Lakes and Northeast and perfect 70s and 80s across” the South. Starting early next week and extending through Nov. 24, “warm high pressure dominates much of the U.S.,” NatGasWeather added. Lower 48 production levels that were down moderately from last week along with strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, meanwhile, added to the optimism. LNG feed gas levels hovered above 10 Bcf – around record levels – as they have for several days, indicating steady export demand from key destinations in Asia and Europe. While the coronavirus looms large as a potential threat to export demands, news this week of a potential vaccine getting approved this year soothed concerns about strict and lasting lockdowns across Europe and potentially parts of Asia that could stunt economies and energy demand.

December Natural Gas Futures Rally for Second Consecutive Day as Cooler Forecasts Hold - Slightly improved weather-driven demand and rising spot prices fueled a second-straight day of gains for natural gas futures. The December Nymex contract gained 8.2 cents day/day and settled at $3.031/MMBtu on Wednesday. January advanced 7.8 cents to $3.151. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 13.5 cents to $2.585, a third consecutive day of gains. Wednesday’s prompt month momentum built atop an increase of 9.0 cents the previous day after a blast of snow and cold moved into the Upper Midwest, and forecasts for the next few days shifted slightly cooler. Overall, expectations increased for modest national demand improvement this week. For the second day in row, Bespoke Weather Services projected demand gains, with a few days toward the front half of the 15-day outlook moving closer to normal in terms of temperatures. This is the result of “a couple of upper level troughs swinging through the eastern third of the nation,” the forecaster said. Bespoke, however, expects continued risks for more warmth late this month and into December, increasing the odds of price declines in coming sessions. “The bearish weather remains the major obstacle for bulls, and we expect that to continue,” the forecaster said. “As it stands right now, we do not have a single day in the forecast that is colder than normal.” Unseasonably warm conditions last week sparked a six-day slump for December futures that continued through trading Monday this week. In all, the prompt month shed nearly 50 cents over that span, amplifying the importance of weather. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated exports averaged 7.2 Bcf/d in October, up 2.3 Bcf/d from September volumes. That marked the largest month/month increase on record.EIA said it expects U.S. LNG exports to average 8.5 Bcf/d in November, above pre-pandemic levels, and remain robust into next year. The agency predicted export volumes would average 8.4 Bcf/d in 2021, a 31% year/year increase. LNG feed gas volumes hovered above 10 Bcf at the start of trading Wednesday.

US working natural gas volumes in underground storage increase by 8 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts— While the bulk of the market expected a second, consecutive, weekly withdrawal to US working gas in storage for the first week in November, a net injection was reported instead, while one more build is likely before the seasonal switch to draws due to low heating demand. US natural gas storage inventories increased by 8 Bcf to 3.927 Tcf for the week ended Nov. 13, Energy Information Administration data showed. The report was issued one day later than usual due to the Veteran's Day holiday. The injection stood in contrast to an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 4 Bcf withdrawal. Responses to the survey ranged for a draw of 12 Bcf to a 6 Bcf injection. The build was still less than the 12 Bcf build reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average gain of 33 Bcf, according to EIA data. The week saw temperatures in the middling zone between heating and cooling, resulting in a 4.3 Bcf/d decline in gas-fired power generation without significant residential and commercial demand gains in return, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. LNG feedgas deliveries continued to climb in the wake of a busy hurricane season, gaining 1 Bcf/d. Northeast production ramped up to record highs for the reference week, pushing up US supplies by 1.5 Bcf/d, and further weighing on prices at Henry Hub. Storage volumes now stand 196 Bcf, or 5.3%, more than the year-ago level of 3.731 Tcf and 176 Bcf, or 4.7%, more than the five-year average of 3.751 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract added 4.7 cents to $3.023/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report at 10:30 am ET. The remaining winter strip, January through March, gained 4.6 cents to $3.086/MMBtu. However, the gains shifted to minor losses by the afternoon, with the prompt month dipping 3 cents from the day prior's settlement while the remaining winter strip shed 1 cent. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 19 Bcf injection for the week-ending Nov. 13. A sudden shift to warmer than normal temperatures loosened US fundamentals week over week, resulting in an 8 Bcf/d decline in residential and commercial demand. Dry gas production also declined by 1.8 Bcf/d, partially offsetting the bearishness of the demand losses. The week-ending Nov. 20 looks to finally mark the switch to the winter withdrawal season, but early forecasts show below-average draws for the remainder of the month.December Natural Gas Futures Finish in Green Despite Storage Injection - Further gradual improvement in weather-driven demand expectations and continued strength in export levels offset a bearish storage report and boosted natural gas futures on Friday. The December Nymex contract gained 1.9 cents day/day and settled at $2.995/MMBtu. It had climbed as much as 10 cents higher in morning trading. January rose 2.8 cents to $3.122. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dipped 6.5 cents to $2.600 after posting gains each of the four previous days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 8 Bcf into storage for the week ending Nov. 6. The result was shy of market expectations and notably bearish compared to a week earlier, when EIA reported a withdrawal of 36 Bcf that marked the first pull of the season. It also was well off the median of major polls. Reuters and Bloomberg surveys both landed at an estimate of a 3 Bcf decrease in storage. A Wall Street Journal survey found an average call for a decrease of 2 Bcf. NGI forecast a 5 Bcf increase. The increase for the latest covered week lifted inventories to 3,927 Bcf, up from 3,731 Bcf a year earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 3,751 Bcf. The plump storage levels and resumption of injections did not subdue markets, however, as the prompt month recorded its third daily gain of the week. While there were indications that colder momentum could ebb, Bespoke Weather Services said its forecast for gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) showed further gradual gains on Friday – the fourth consecutive day of increases and a vital driver of futures to culminate the week. Bespoke and other forecasters, however, said after mid-November, temperatures are likely to shift from cool to relatively warm for that time of year, with highs of 60s to 80s over much of the country outside of the far north. “We feel the colder changes the last few days, while significant, will turn out to be just a window of variability in the midst of a warm base state, and that we will move more decisively in the warmer direction at the end of the month and into early December,” Bespoke said.

Weekly Natural Gas Prices Mount Comeback on Northern Cold Blast - Natural Gas Intelligence - Weekly cash prices rebounded from the nosedive of a week earlier, lifted by a round of winter weather in the Northern Plains that gradually pushed eastward and galvanized heating demand over swaths of the Lower 48.  NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Nov. 9-13 period climbed 12.5 cents to $2.510. The week before, when mild temperatures blanketed the country and sapped demand, weekly prices dropped 61.5 cents on average. For all the potential drivers of gas prices, the see-saw action so far in November amplified the outsized significance of weather as much of the country steadily moves into winter.  As the trading week closed, El Paso Permian was up 43.5 cents week/week to $2.475, while Dominion North was ahead 54.5 cents to $1.165, andDefiance was up 17.0 cents to $2.485. Forecasters said volatility may continue to pervade cash markets the rest of this month, as weather outlooks hover between cold and mild over big sections of the country, and overall production, while still low compared to a year earlier, has mostly held steady this month.  Bespoke Weather Services said chilly conditions are expected to hang around the Midwest and into parts of the East beyond mid-month, but the potential for comfortable temperatures – and threats to demand – look likely later in November. “We remain concerned that the warm look ultimately wins out late month into at least early December and that [recent] colder changes will just amount to some variability mixing into the warm state,” the forecaster said. “If so, price risks would be skewed to the downside.”  Greater economic activity and mounting energy use could boost industrial demand and offset lighter weather-driven demand. However, despite news earlier this month of a vaccine potentially winning approval yet this year, the coronavirus pandemic in the near term is surging and threatening to stunt economic activity and, by extension, energy needs. The United States averaged more than 100,000 new cases each day during the covered week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.  “We expect near-term volatility surrounding vaccine development and the Covid-19 outbreak to remain,” said Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. “While the vaccine development is a positive signal, it cannot remedy the current surge or the risk of the outbreak worsening as we head into the winter months.”

An oil and gas industry consultant reportedly created a fake persona of 'an imaginary, middle-aged Texas woman with a dog' to monitor environmental activists online - A consulting firm hired by the oil and gas industry created a fake persona of "an imaginary, middle-aged Texas woman with a dog" to monitor environmental activists online, according to a report from The New York Times.The global firm, FTI Consulting, was hired by oil and gas companies to help promote fossil fuels, Times climate reporter Hiroko Tabuchi said.A group within the firm was reportedly hired by Apache Energy, a company that was interested in drilling near a Texas state park. Two sources told Tabuchi that the company was worried people would show up to protest like in the case of the Dakota Access Pipeline protests in 2016, when thousands of people descended upon North Dakota to resist the pipeline.As a result, an online persona was created to keep an eye on organizers, former FTI employees told Tabuchi. That Facebook profile was "of a Texas woman named Susan McDonald who likes ice cream, the movie "Annie" and her local farmers' market," The Times reported.A spokesman from FTI, Matthew Bashalany, told The Times, "A Facebook profile was created by a former employee to monitor social media anonymously. This was wrong, and it is against our policy."The discovery of the false profile came out of a larger investigation into the firm, which Tabuchi said created multiple websites and organizations run by its own staff that appeared to be grass-roots endeavors in favor of fossil fuels. In reality, the efforts were funded by big oil and gas companies.In one instance, a pro-fracking website called "Texans for Natural Gas" encouraged people to "thank a roughneck," The Times reported. In another, the "Main Street Investors Coalition" promoted claims that climate activism doesn't help small-time investors in the stock market.Tabuchi reported that oil companies hired FTI to push back against the growing criticism surrounding fossil fuels as a result of climate change and to help shift public perception towards a positive view of oil. The price of oil dropped to historic lows in the spring after the industry was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, President-elect Joe Biden is expected to up the country's efforts in the fight against climate change, though it's not yet clear what impact his presidency will have on the energy industry.

 How One Firm Drove Influence Campaigns Nationwide for Big Oil - New York Times - FTI, a global consulting firm, helped design, staff and run organizations and websites funded by energy companies that can appear to represent grass-roots support for fossil-fuel initiatives. In early 2017, the Texans for Natural Gas website went live to urge voters to “thank a roughneck” and support fracking. Around the same time, the Arctic Energy Center ramped up its advocacy for drilling in Alaskan waters and in a vast Arctic wildlife refuge. The next year, the Main Street Investors Coalition warned that climate activism doesn’t help mom-and-pop investors in the stock market. All three appeared to be separate efforts to amplify local voices or speak up for regular people. On closer look, however, the groups had something in common: They were part of a network of corporate influence campaigns designed, staffed and at times run by FTI Consulting, which had been hired by some of the largest oil and gas companies in the world to help them promote fossil fuels. An examination of FTI’s work provides an anatomy of the oil industry’s efforts to influence public opinion in the face of increasing political pressure over climate change, an issue likely to grow in prominence, given President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s pledge to pursue bolder climate regulations. The campaigns often obscure the industry’s role, portraying pro-petroleum groups as grass-roots movements. As part of its services to the industry, FTI monitored environmental activists online, and in one instance an employee created a fake Facebook persona — an imaginary, middle-aged Texas woman with a dog — to help keep tabs on protesters. Former FTI employees say they studied other online influence campaigns and compiled strategies for affecting public discourse. They helped run a campaign that sought a securities rule change, described as protecting the interests of mom-and-pop investors, that aimed to protect oil and gas companies from shareholder pressure to address climate and other concerns. FTI employees also staffed two news and information sites, Energy In Depth and Western Wire, writing pro-industry articles on fracking, climate lawsuits and other hot-button issues. Former employees familiar with Energy In Depth said the site’s content had direction from Exxon Mobil, one of the major clients of the FTI division that worked on these oil and gas campaigns. The Energy In Depth website notes its affiliation with an energy trade group that Exxon is a member of, though not Exxon’s role in directing content that the site published. This article is based on interviews with a dozen former FTI employees, including former managing directors, a review of hundreds of internal FTI documents and an examination of the digital trail of domain-name registrations and other details left by the creation of the websites. In all, FTI has been involved in the operations of at least 15 current and past influence campaigns promoting fossil-fuel interests in addition to its direct work for oil and gas clients. Matthew Bashalany, an FTI spokesman, disputed the idea that FTI worked behind the scenes for these groups. “We hide behind no one,” he said. “We summarily reject as false, misleading and defamatory the general narrative and specific claims,” he said. “We hold ourselves to the highest professional and ethical standards of conduct; when and where shortfalls are identified in this regard, they are addressed appropriately.” An Exxon spokesman, Casey Norton, said he would not comment on the findings because he considered the reporter to be biased against the fossil fuel industry. Kathleen Sgamma, a spokeswoman for the Western Energy Alliance, which funds Western Wire, said her group had been open about its partnership with FTI and about its approach to fracking. The business of corporate consulting and public relations is vast, and countless companies routinely provide media outreach, public messaging, crisis management and other services. FTI is among them, and it has taken up an important role in helping promote the messages of the fossil fuel industry.

Krotz Springs refinery lays off workers; looks to break even after millions in maintenance work --  An oil refinery in St. Landry Parish laid off an undisclosed number of workers last week as it looks for ways to turn a profit and still plans to invest millions in maintenance work at the plant. The Krotz Springs oil refinery, owned by Tennessee-based Delek U.S. and built in 1976, had about 210 workers before the coronavirus pandemic caused lockdowns eight months ago that sapped demand for fuel for travel and work commutes. It was also not clear Monday how many workers the company still has in Louisiana. Delek officials told investors last week the company planned to lay off 8% of its workforce to save money. That would mean trimming roughly 300 workers of its 3,800 employees company-wide. About 1,300 worked in refining as of December 2019. Delek has refineries of similar size to Krotz Springs in Tyler, Texas; Big Spring, Texas; and El Dorado, Arkansas. The Krotz Springs refinery, acquired by Delek U.S. in 2017 from Alon Refining, has the capacity to process 80,000 barrels of crude oil each day. It was not clear how much production has been cut since the economic recession began. If the 8% staff reduction is evenly distributed, it would mean 16 employees lost their jobs in Krotz Springs. However, the company told investors it plans to idle unprofitable units at Krotz Springs that account for the majority of its products processed there. The profit margin for gasoline has diminished since the coronavirus pandemic and prompted other refineries across the country to idle some operations or even shutter. The Krotz Springs refinery also produces jet fuel, high-sulfur diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, isobutane, polygas, a blending fuel used in liquid fertilizers, naptha and propylene. Some of these petrochemical products are more profitable than others, but the volume is significantly lower than gasoline and jet fuel. The Krotz Springs refinery generated $70.5 million in annual sales as of December 2019, largely split between gasoline and jet fuel, with 35,000 barrels and 28,000 barrels, respectively, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission records. Petrochemicals accounted for less than 5,000 barrels of daily capacity in 2019, records show. Delek U.S. told investors last week it plans to reorganize the business, but still invest $10 million in the Krotz Springs operation during fourth quarter for completion by first-quarter 2021, which is pushing the maintenance and turnaround work back by a few months.

NextDecade, Bechtel Extend Rio Grande LNG Contract to End of 2021 - Engineering firm Bechtel Corp. last month agreed to give NextDecade Corp. more time to fund its proposed Rio Grande liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project in Texas, amid a major setback that the project recently sustained. Houston-based NextDecade now has until December 21, 2021, to make positive final investment decisions (FIDs) to build up to three liquefaction trains at Rio Grande LNG for construction prices established last year to still be valid. The previous FID deadlines were July 31, 2021, according to a third quarter report NextDecade filed Wednesday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Under one contract signed on May 24, 2019, Bechtel would build two liquefaction trains with combined capacity of 11.74 million metric tons/year (mmty), two 180,000-cubic-meter full containment LNG storage tanks, one marine loading berth and related facilities for $7.042 billion, according to a another document NextDecade filed with the SEC. Under a second contract signed the same day, Bechtel would build a third train with capacity of 5.87 mmty and related facilities for $2.323 billion. The project at full build-out would have a combined capacity of 27 mmty, equivalent to about 3.6 Bcf/d of gas, from five liquefaction trains. The contracts allow for relatively small price increases with deadline extensions and other changes, and the deadline presumably could be extended again. The French government recently delivered a blow to the project by scuttling a proposed $7-billion, 20-year deal for French energy firm Engie to buy LNG from Rio Grande because of environmental concerns over hydraulic fracturing. Rio Grande would get much of its feed gas from the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where significant associated gas volumes are flared due to pipeline constraints. The government has a 23.63% stake in Engie. NextDecade management has said it is continuing negotiations with multiple customers to sign enough long-term deals to reach an FID in 2021 on at least two trains. Shell has signed a long-term deal to buy 2 mmty from Rio Grande but an LNG export project typically needs to sell at least 60-70% of its capacity under long-term deals to get bank financing.

COVID-19 oil bust turns once-pricey West Texas land into a bargain -  Eric Huffman remembers a time not long ago when prospectors paid a hefty premium for land in the nation’s hottest oil fields.But since the coronavirus pandemic deflated crude demand, the value of oil land in West Texas and around the country has plummeted. Huffman, a land broker and attorney at Houston-based Lone Star Production Co., said he’s seen land prices fall below $1,000 an acre for property that was once valued at more than $10,000 an acre.“When (oil) prices are too low, no one is buying land,”  Even if drillers were bullish on the quick rebound of crude demand, investors and banks have little interest in financing efforts to buy properties and drill new projects after years of disappointing returns in the energy sector.  “People aren’t competing to acquire assets because there’s not the capital readily flowing into the space,” Huffman said. “The appetite is just not there.”As a result, the average price of U.S. shale acreage has fallen by more than 70 percent in two years, to $5,000 per acre in 2020 from $17,000 per acre in 2018, according to Rystad, a Norwegian energy research firm.Amid the wider decline, the value of some shale plays has held up. The Permian-Delaware basin is still valued at $30,000 per acre and the Midland basin is valued at $17,000 an acre, Rystad said. But prices for devalued oil and gas lands will be slow to recover as long as COVID-19 cases surge, and related lockdowns keep pressure on demand for petroleum.“We do not foresee demand for (oil) assets rising in the coming quarters,” Alisa Lukash, a senior analyst at Rystad, said in Thursday’s report. The real estate downturn is squeezing oil and gas companies that are relying on asset sales to balance budgets and pay debt. Houston-based Occidental Petroleum, which is trying to sell billions of dollars of assets to erase debt incurred in its $38 billion acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019, said this week that it lost $700 million on asset sales in Colombia and Wyoming because of low crude prices.Land brokers, called landmen in the oil and gas industry, also are feeling the squeeze, as work has dried up, said Huffman, a former president of the Houston Association of Professional Landmen, which has some 1,300 members. These brokers work with oil and gas producers to find and lease properties to drill. But with few companies drilling new wells, there aren’t many buyers seeking broker services.“It’s been pretty tough for landmen,” Huffman said. “What was once a land rush is now being scrutinized by very sophisticated oil and gas people that are trying to find a couple of shiny diamonds in a pile of gravel.”

Texas bill would tax wind, solar generation but not natural gas - Power bills likely would rise next year for Texas consumers who get their electricity from wind, solar, coal and nuclear generation if the Legislature approves a bill filed this week.The bill from state Rep. Ken King would add 1 cent to every kilowatt hour of energy generated. The tax likely would be passed on to consumers, adding about $12 a month to bills for households that use 1,200 kilowatt hours of renewable power sources each month. Power generated from natural gas would be exempt from the tax.Wind produced about 20 percent of electricity last year in Texas, which is the nation's leader in wind power generation, and 47 percent came from natural gas, according to the state's grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.RELATED: Solar expected to disrupt Texas fossil-fuel apple cartLuke Metzger, executive director of the Austin-based clean energy advocacy group Environment Texas, said the bill makes no sense.“It flies against the rhetoric of Texas' market-based system of electricity, putting the thumb on the scale for natural gas and raising taxes on Texans by $2.3 billion every year,” he said in a prepared statement. “It would also discourage wind and solar power, which are reducing pollution, helping us tread more lightly on the planet, and boosting rural economies.”King, a Republican from Canadian, Texas, represents a swath of the Texas Panhandle stretching from Oklahoma to New Mexico. The region is one of the biggest generators of wind in Texas and where millions of dollars were spent to build transmission lines to transport the wind to the state’s population centers.

 BP reports uptick of spills in La Plata County - BP America Production Co. has reported four spills of produced water at oil and gas facilities in La Plata County since Oct. 28, according to state records, bringing the total to nearly 20 spills for the year. The first spill in the recent string of incidents was discovered Oct. 28, north of Colorado Highway 172, about 6 miles southeast of Durango. According to an incident report, a property owner reported a pipeline leak, and upon inspection, it was determined produced water was flowing into a nearby irrigation ditch and pond, which was reportedly dry. Produced water is a term that refers to the wastewater byproduct of oil and gas production, which can contain high concentrations of hydrocarbons and carry negative environmental impacts. Livestock on the property was removed, and BP worked to contain the spill. The company reported an “unknown volume of produced water” was released in the spill, none of which could be recovered. Inspectors with the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission inspected the site. According to state records, water and soil samples were taken. The next spill was discovered Nov. 4, also off Colorado Highway 172, about 3 miles south of Ignacio. An incident report says a pipeline released produced water, which ultimately flowed into a nearby arroyo that runs into the Los Pinos River. BP says the pipeline was isolated, but doesn’t know how much produced water was spilled. Water and soil sampling will be required in that instance, too. Then, two separate spills were found Nov. 6, according to state records. One spill happened near County Road 319, about 3 miles southwest of Ignacio, where an estimated 245 barrels, or about 10,290 gallons, of produced water was released, which required BP to create a small berm to stop it. The other incident occurred near County Road 523, about 6 miles southeast of Bayfield after a pipeline was reportedly found leaking. BP said a little more than a barrel of produced water was released. BP this year sold its assets in the San Juan Basin natural gas field, which spans Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico, to a European renewable energy company called IKAV Energy Inc. But according to COGCC records, BP is still the company filing incident reports.

Texas Clampdown on Gas Flaring Falls Short of Total Prohibition - Texas’s oil regulator took action to reduce routine natural gas flaring but its efforts fall short of more aggressive measures requested by some investors and major producers.  Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/texas-clampdown-on-gas-flaring-falls-short-of-total-prohibition  Copyright © BloombergQuint

Shell Wants Biden to Reverse Methane Emissions Rollback - Royal Dutch Shell Plc will push for the reversal of President Donald Trump’s rollback of methane emissions rules and the introduction of carbon pricing when Joe Biden moves into the White House next year. “Some of the regulatory rollbacks that we’ve seen under the current administration haven’t actually benefited our industry,” Shell U.S. President Gretchen Watkins said Tuesday on a webcast hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership. The easing of direct regulation of methane emissions put the energy industry in a “backwards-facing position,” while the absence of carbon pricing makes it harder to incentivize new technologies like carbon capture, Watkins said. “Whoever is in the White House, we will work constructively with them and are actually very much looking forward to building that relationship with the new administration that’s coming in in January,” she added. The oil and gas industry, which has long been the target of environmental groups, faces increasing pressure from shareholders managing trillions of dollars to address greenhouse-gas emissions such as methane. Shell joined BP Plc in September in calling for Texas regulators to end the routine flaring of natural gas, a by-product of the oil boom in the shale patch.

Biden's oil plan: The good, the bad and the illegal -- Thursday, November 12, 2020 -- An overhaul of the federal oil and gas program didn't make it into President-elect Joe Biden's transition priorities listed on his website Sunday after he was declared the winner of the presidential race. But observers are still expecting Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to curtail oil and gas development on federal lands and waters, an area where the president can exert significant direct control, experts say. The campaign's proposal includes a first-day promise to ban new permitting, which approves specific drilling plans, and bar new leasing, which gives prospectors a 10-year property right to develop federal minerals. The president-elect's platform has also pledged an end to hydraulic fracturing on public lands, a contentious development technique that is ubiquitous in the U.S. oil patch and has long stoked criticism from environmentalists. "A real transition to a clean energy future can and must begin with a halt to new fracking — first on federal lands, and everywhere else soon after," Food & Water Action Executive Director Wenonah Hauter said in a statement soon after the election was called for Biden. If Biden follows through on his campaign pledges, the beginning of 2021 could see a significant shift for the oil and gas industry in states like Wyoming and New Mexico — where federal oil and gas development is prominent. It also could potentially refashion oil drilling on federal land and water for many years to come. But experts say there are several big "ifs" in Biden's plan, not least of which is the potential backlash from curtailing industry. Federal oil development represents one-quarter of national production, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and both oil and natural gas pour into both federal and state budgets. Proposed policies to choke new leasing and permitting, and even throttle fracking on federal land, are likely doable, but they'll spark political and judicial fights.

Oil and gas experts discuss how Biden administration could affect the industry — The oil and gas industry in Texas and right here in the Coastal Bend is preparing for a change in leadership, but with a new administration in the White House, some question what that will mean for local oil and gas jobs. There has been some concern ever since president elect Joe Biden mentioned that he wants to transition over time to energy sources that don't pollute as much as oil does. When you look at the state's economy, you could say Texas is oil country. According to the Texas Oil and Gas Association, in 2019 the industry supported more than 400-thousand direct jobs. Now, with a change in power on the horizon, Joe Biden's stance has certainly raised eyes and sparked some fear in an industry already hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economics professor Dr. Jim Lee at Texas A&M Corpus Christi said what the industry will likely see are more regulations and added costs of oil production. He doesn't see a major loss in jobs because of the industry's ability to adapt. "In the long run, I wouldn't say we are going to lose jobs immediately because of that, but we will feel it in our pocketbooks because in the end they are going to pass on the higher cost of extracting oil and producing oil because producing clean energy doesn't come free," said Dr. Lee. The Port of Corpus Christi also takes on a vital role in the energy sector. It has become the 3rd largest port in the U.S. based on tonnage and the second largest exporter of crude oil. Port chairman Charlie Zahn said he doesn't believe the presidential transition will have much if any affect at all. He said the country is too dependent on oil and gas. "Oil and gas are not just used for transportation purposes, they're used in a lot of products that each one of us on a day-to-day basis was still going to have a need for energy," said Zahn. "We certainly believe the Biden administration is going to have a significant focus on reducing atmospheric carbon concentrations, but when it comes to energy exports and Texas exports, we believe the Biden administration will continue with that policy," said Port of Corpus Christi CEO Sean Strawbridge.

Big Oil execs say they’re not worried about Biden’s energy plan; hope to ‘get his staff on board’— The prospect of a Joe Biden presidency and the most progressive climate strategy the U.S. has ever attempted is not something that should concern the energy industry, oil and gas executives have told CNBC. Instead, they hope President-elect Biden will engage directly with them as he rolls out his energy plan. Biden, who has won the U.S. election according to NBC projections, has previously said that one of his first acts as president would be to reverse President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement, an international pact designed to avert the dangerous warming of the planet. Thereafter, cutting carbon emissions will likely take center stage when it comes to the former vice president's energy credibility. Democrats such as Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez are pushing for Biden to consider backing the Green New Deal, which would eliminate carbon emissions from most sources over a decade. At present, however, Biden's energy plan is more moderate. "Talking about climate is often like talking about religion with some politicians. They don't actually understand the complexities of the energy system very much and that's never very satisfying," said Bob Dudley, former CEO of BP and chair of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), an umbrella group of some of the world's leading oil and gas producers. "So, what we need are policymakers and governments around the world that actually understand the mix of technologies, how they will come along, and the cost of these technologies, rather than rushing to get elected with what sounds too good to be true." When asked specifically about whether he felt Biden understood those energy complexities, Dudley told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick: "If you look at the campaign rhetoric around it, I think you have a spectrum in his party. I think he understands it, it can't be as fast." Dudley added: "There are some who want to go much faster and as a politician, he is going to have to balance what some people describe as the 'far left' with the more centrist parts of his party. How he'll do that? I don't know."

Big Oil Has Long Way to Go on Emissions Targets: Green Insight -  Just five of the 39 largest oil and gas companies have announced carbon-reduction targets that match levels needed to avoid a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase. And only 20 have taken initial steps to disclose how they plan to lower emissions produced by both their operations and electricity use, known respectively as Scope 1 and Scope 2. Put those facts together and it may seem like most of the world’s biggest polluters aren’t serious about climate change. The list of passive offenders includes four of the top-five ranked energy companies by stock market value: Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., PetroChina Co. and Saudi Aramco. Eni SpA, Total SA, Reliance Industries Ltd., Galp Energia SGPS SA and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. are the only companies that have targets in-line with the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for 2030, said Eric Kane, senior ESG analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, which has introduced a “carbon transition score” to evaluate, compare and rank how companies are cutting their carbon intensity. On Tuesday, Occidental Petroleum Corp. became the first major U.S. oil producer to aim for net zero emissions from everything it extracts and sells.The score allows investors to measure oil and gas companies’ progress in reducing their operational emissions intensity, Kane said. It also shows how they are positioned relative to each other and the IEA benchmark, assuming they are successful in achieving their publicly stated greenhouse gas reduction targets, he said.“Despite the risks, many companies have yet to develop reduction strategies,” Kane said.Of the 39 energy firms, just eight have established plans to lower Scope 3 emissions, which are generated when their customers burn fossil fuels, a figure that comprises about 80% of total greenhouse gases at large oil companies. That suggests most companies in the industry are likely to face significant challenges as the economy shifts away from carbon-intensive energy, Kane said.

Oil, Gas Permits for Lower 48 Federal Land Climb Ahead of Biden's Election -  U.S. explorers during October increased their oil and gas permit requests for the third month in a row, with an uptick in developing leaseholds on federal lands, according to Evercore ISI. The analyst firm each month provides data using state and federal sources regarding permits for oil and gas wells, plugging and abandoned (P&A) wells approved and detailed variances of onshore and offshore permitting.  The gains in federal land requests preceded the election of Democrat Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has said he would seek to ban drilling on federal lands. U.S. applications by exploration and production (E&P) companies accelerated 25% month/month (m/m) in October, “which is the largest monthly increase so far in 2020,” Evercore analysts said.The increase mainly was driven by the Permian Basin, with permits up 76 over September. Requests to drill on federal lands in the Permian jumped by 19% m/m, according to Evercore.  Marcellus Shale permit requests rose by 83 from September, with Bakken Shale requests increasing by 20, the data indicated. Operators filed 1,301 permits in oil formations, up by 199 from September, with 46% approved for the Permian and the Eagle Ford Shale.  Leading up to the U.S. election, Evercore noted that Devon Energy Corp. boosted its permit activity in the Permian by 15 m/m in October, “as it pressed ahead with plans to receive regulatory approval of 650 federal permits by year-end.” Concho Resources Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (Oxy) “ramped their permits to a new 2020 peak in October,” analysts said. Oxy “scaled up applications to 63 (plus 40 m/m) with the bulk of permits focused mainly in New Mexico.” The Bakken permit count rose to 73 during October, up by 20 from September, “which is only 3% lower from January,” said analysts. “Incremental activity was primarily driven by ConocoPhillips,” up by 28 m/m, and the October count “reached the highest level so far this year.”  Overall, permitted wells in oil formations had declined through October by 67% year/year (y/y) to 14,656, primarily from a “collapse in the Powder River Basin,” which had plunged by 67%, Evercore noted. Permian activity through October stood at 5,353, off by 37% y/y. The pullback was driven by “sharp reductions” at ExxonMobil, off by 52%, Marathon Oil Co., down 75%, and ConocoPhillips, whose permitting activity was 61% lower. Meanwhile, public E&Ps working in Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale increased their permitting activity by 1,038% from September, according to the data. Natural gas prices are forecast to strengthen, along with activity in the gassy formations of the Marcellus and Utica shales, and the Haynesville Shale.Overall, state regulators during October granted 220 permits in Lower 48 gas formations, up by 98% from September, with “a strong recovery in the Marcellus and the Utica, where applications are returning to 1Q2020 levels,” said Evercore analysts. “Wells permitted in the Marcellus ramped to 91 (up 83 m/m),” driven Antero Resources Corp., up 28, Southwestern Energy Corp., up 15, and Chesapeake Energy Corp., up by 11. Public operators submitted 75% of the October permits in the Appalachian plays, Evercore noted. Meanwhile, Utica permit activity was higher at 27, an increase of 13 over September, “trending upward for the second consecutive month.”

US Rig Count Rises Double Digits as Recovery Gains Steam - Already on the ascent, the U.S. rig count’s trajectory bent further upward for the week ended Friday (Nov. 13), as strength in oil-directed drilling lifted the overall domestic tally 12 units to 312, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Gains for the week included 10 oil rigs and two natural gas-directed units. The U.S. count ended the week nearly 500 units shy of its year-ago total of 806. The domestic count has risen steadily over the past two months, clawing its way back from a recent low of 254 rigs for the week ending Sept. 11, according to the BKR numbers, which are based on data provided in part by Enverus Drillinginfo. Land drilling rose by 11 units during the period, while one rig was added in the Gulf of Mexico. Eight horizontal units and four directional units returned to action, while the total number of vertical units remained unchanged at 22. The Canadian rig count increased three units to 89, including two oil rigs and one natural gas rig. The Canadian count finished 45 units below the 134 rigs running there at this time last year. The combined North American rig count finished at 401, down from 940 a year ago. Among major plays, the Permian Basin added seven rigs to grow its tally to 154, versus 408 in the year-ago period. The Marcellus Shale added two rigs, while the Cana Woodford and Eagle Ford Shale each added one rig. The Utica Shale saw a net decrease of one rig during the period.  Broken down by state, BKR tallied a six-rig increase in Texas, with three rigs returning to action in New Mexico. Pennsylvania added two rigs week/week, while Louisiana and Oklahoma each added one. Ohio dropped one rig from its total.  U.S. explorers during October increased their oil and gas permit requests for the third month in a row, with an uptick in developing leaseholds on federal lands, according to a recent analysis conducted by Evercore ISI. U.S. applications by exploration and production companies accelerated 25% month/month in October, “which is the largest monthly increase so far in 2020,” Evercore analysts said. The increase mainly was driven by the Permian, with permits up 76 over September. Requests to drill on federal lands in the Permian jumped by 19% month/month, according to Evercore.

Oil operators get DUCs in a row, adding fracking crews to boost output - US frackers are bringing back equipment even as oil prices languish around $40 a barrel in a bid to boost production and tap into a backlog of drilled wells left uncompleted (DUCs) when oil prices crashed earlier this year.The number of active hydraulic fracturing fleets has climbed by nearly 50% since mid-September to 127, according to data from consultancy Primary Vision, outpacing a roughly 17% jump in the number of active drilling rigs over that same period of time. That count stands at 296.US oil prices were trading around $38.53 a barrel on Thursday, below profitable levels in some US producing basins. Still, hydraulic fracturing equipment is headed back to the field, as oil companies are trying to deal with the swift rate at which shale well production falls. US shale production is expected to fall to 7.7 million barrels per day in November, down from 9.2 million bpd in February, before prices crashed, according to the USEnergy Information Administration.Fracking was the first thing to get shut down when oil prices collapsed because it's the most expensive part of drilling and completing a well, said Andy Hendricks, chief executive officer of driller Patterson-UTI Energy. When prices rose, operators brought back frack crews to complete wells that were drilled but not yet completed, accounting for a big bump in frack activity.The companies that specialize in well completions, like ProPetro Holding Corp and Liberty Oilfield Services , have said they are adding back workers."Oil focused operators and basins are trying to manage decline curves," said Matt Johnson, chief executive of Primary Vision.The US added as many as 1,200 DUCs in May, according to analysis from consultancy Enverus, but began completing wells at a faster rate than rigs could drill them starting around July. In October, operators were burning through DUCs at a rate of roughly 200 a month, Enverus said.  That pace could slow, Hendricks warned. "I don't expect big increases in frack activity from where we are. We just don't have the inventory," he said referencing drilled-but-uncompleted wells.

State regulators approve Line 3 permits; move pipeline closer to construction - State environmental regulators issued several key permits Thursday that move Enbridge Energy closer to building its controversial Line 3 oil pipeline replacement project. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency both approved permits for the Line 3 project. Now, Enbridge just needs a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and an additional permit that's expected from the MPCA in the next month. The MPCA’s decision this week will trigger a decision from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on its permit. At that point, Enbridge could begin work on the project — which would replace an existing, aging pipeline that at nearly 60 years in operation, is deteriorating and can only transport about half the oil it was designed for, with a new, larger line along a different route across northern Minnesota. An Enbridge spokesperson said only that the company would begin construction once it has all approvals in hand. Kevin Pranis, a spokesperson for the LIUNA union, whose members plan to work on the project, said they expect construction to begin in the next month. Once it does, Enbridge says construction will take six to nine months. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, which regulates state utilities and pipelines, gave the Line 3 project its stamp of approval for the second time earlier this year. The PUC originally granted a required certificate of need and route permit for the project in 2018, but had to vote again on the proposal after a court ordered that the project’s environmental review needed to be revised. In the meantime, the project has been held up by legal challenges, including one that the state Commerce Department renewed in August. An array of environmental and tribal groups oppose the project, arguing that it will contribute to climate change and risk oil spills in northern Minnesota waterways. Supporters argue that the new pipeline will be safer than the current line, and that it will create thousands of construction jobs.

 Indigenous and Climate Leaders Outraged Over Minnesota Permits for Line 3 Pipeline - Environmental and Indigenous leaders on Thursday responded with alarm after Minnesota regulators approved key permits for Enbridge Energy's planned Line 3 Pipeline replacement, and called on Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to block any construction for the Canadian company's long-delayed multibillion-dollar project."Gov. Walz has apparently decided that if Washington won't lead on climate, Minnesota won't either," said Andy Pearson, MN350's Midwest tar sands coordinator, in a statement about the permits. "Make no mistake. "This decision is a sharp escalation against water protectors and climate science."The Associated Press reported that "the approvals from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and Department of Natural Resources clear the way for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to issue the remaining federal permits, which is expected to happen fairly quickly. The MPCA could then approve a final construction storm water permit that's meant to protect surface waters from pollutant runoff."As Leo Golden, vice president of Line 3 execution, called it "a big day for Line 3 in Minnesota" and said that "these authorizations and approvals are an important step towards construction," Pearson and other critics of the crude oil project reiterated their opposition, citing both treaty rights and climate science."Line 3 is facing multiple court challenges by Native nations, grassroots groups, and the Minnesota Department of Commerce," Pearson noted. "This decision means that Enbridge may launch construction while the overall need and legality of the pipeline are being fought in court, including by a state agency." "There is a good chance that courts will find the pipeline was approved illegally," he said. "It's just common sense, then, to demand that the state immediately halt Enbridge's progress toward construction while those important legal challenges play out."

State launches economic stimulus program to bring oil and gas workforce back - Gov. Mark Gordon launched an economic stimulus program on Wednesday to help the state’s ailing oil and gas industry recover from the economic collapse of energy markets fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic.The $15 million available to operators will come from federal CARES Act dollars. The program aims to pump resources into well cleanup and finishing uncompleted oil and gas wells.Uncompleted wells have a well bore drilled, but oil and gas have yet to be extracted. To complete the well, operators engage in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.Wyoming operators will be eligible for up to $500,000 in aid.“These funds will have a direct impact on Wyoming’s employment rate and put people back to work in our oil and gas sector which was impacted by COVID-19,” Gordon said. “It will provide opportunities for employees who lost jobs when drilling ceased. The oil and gas industry is a huge contributor to Wyoming revenues, employment, and its overall economy. These dollars will assist in our state’s economic rebound.”In March, a global oil price war broke out between Russia and Saudi Arabia, sending prices tumbling. Simultaneously, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy to a near standstill, chilling demand for fuel. By April, the glut in supply and drought in demand caused oil prices to go negative. West Texas Intermediate contracts for May sold at negative $40 per barrel, plummeting roughly 300% a day before the deadline to purchase them. In June, Wyoming’s oil and gas rig count sank to zero for the first time in over 136 years. The series of events this year have devastated the U.S. oil and gas business.Measures taken to stem the tide of COVID-19 infections slashed petroleum consumption to the lowest levels the U.S. Energy Information Administration has recorded since it began collecting this data in the early 1990s.“The Energy Rebound Program is an excellent use of the CARES Act funding,” Rep. Steve Harshman, R-Casper, said in a statement. “CARES funding was designed to address many of the disastrous economic effects stemming from the COVID and the collapse of much of Wyoming’s economy. The program will provide immediate jobs and long-term revenue for Wyoming.” The Petroleum Association of Wyoming also praised the economic stimulus program.

Oil field operations likely triggered earthquakes in California a few miles from the San Andreas Fault - The way companies drill for oil and gas and dispose of wastewater can trigger earthquakes, at times in unexpected places.In West Texas, earthquake rates are now 30 times higher than they were in 2013. Studies have also linked earthquakes to oil field operations in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and Ohio.California was thought to be an exception, a place where oil field operations and tectonic faults apparently coexisted without much problem. Now, new research shows that the state’s natural earthquake activity may be hiding industry-induced quakes.As a seismologist, I have been investigating induced earthquakes in the U.S., Europe and Australia. Our latest study, released on Nov. 11, shows how California oil field operations are putting stress on tectonic faults in an area just a few miles from the San Andreas Fault.Industry-induced earthquakes have been an increasing concern in the central and eastern United States for more than a decade.Most of these earthquakes are too small to be felt, but not all of them. In 2016, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake damaged buildings in Pawnee, Oklahoma, and led state and federal regulators to shut down 32 wastewater disposal wells near a newly discovered fault. Large earthquakes are rare far from tectonic plate boundaries, and Oklahoma experiencing three magnitude 5 or greater earthquakes in one year, as happened in 2016, was unheard of.Oklahoma’s earthquake frequency fell with lower oil prices and regulators’ decision to require companies to decrease their well injection volume, but there are still more earthquakes there today than in 2010.A familiar pattern has been emerging in West Texas in the past few years: drastically increasing earthquake rates well beyond the natural rate. A magnitude 5 earthquake shook West Texas in March. At the root of the induced earthquake problem are two different types of fluid injection operations: hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. Hydraulic fracturing involves injecting water, sand and chemicals at very high pressures to create flow pathways for hydrocarbons trapped in tight rock formations. Wastewater disposal involves injecting fluids into deep geological formations. Although wastewater is pumped at low pressures, this type of operation can disturb natural pressures and stresses over large areas, several miles from injection wells.Tectonic faults underneath geothermal and oil reservoirs are often precariously balanced. Even a small perturbation to the natural tectonic system – due to deep fluid injection, for example – can cause faults to slip and trigger earthquakes.

Trump to Rush Drilling Leases in Arctic Before Biden Takes Over The Trump administration is advancing plans to auction drilling rights in the U.S. Arctic National Wildlife Refuge before the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, who has vowed to block oil exploration in the rugged Alaska wilderness. The Interior Department is set to issue a formal “call for nominations” as soon as Monday, kick-starting a final effort to get input on what tracts to auction inside the refuge’s 1.56-million-acre coastal plain. The plans were described by two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named detailing administration strategy. Biden has pledged to permanently protect the refuge, saying drilling there would be a “big disaster.” But those efforts could be complicated if the Trump administration sells drilling rights first. Formally issued oil and gas leases on federal land are government contracts that can’t be easily yanked. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the refuge’s coastal plain might hold between 4.3 billion and 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable crude. Yet it’s unclear how many oil companies would have the appetite to mount costly operations in the remote Arctic wilderness amid low crude prices, steep public opposition, and regulatory uncertainty. Major U.S. banks have sworn off financing Arctic drilling projects, and conservationists are also pressuring oil executives to rule out work in the region. Environmentalists argue Arctic oil development imperils one of the country’s last truly wild places -- a swath of northeast Alaska populated by polar bears, caribou, and more than 200 species of birds. The Trump administration is also fast-tracking a proposal to conduct 3-D seismic surveys inside the refuge before Jan. 20. The surveys can help pinpoint possible underground oil reserves, but environmentalists warn they are large industrial operations that threaten polar bears hidden in snow-covered dens. Oil companies that buy leases in the refuge might never get the opportunity to use them while Biden is in the White House. Even if leases are sold and issued before Jan. 20, companies will need permits governing air pollution, animal harm, water usage and rights of way that the new administration could stall or deny. Congress mandated the Interior Department hold two auctions of coastal plain oil leases before Dec. 22, 2024. But environmentalists, states and indigenous groups have already mounted legal challenges against the leasing plan. Any victory by the conservationists or settlement with the Biden administration requiring more environmental review could jeopardize leases.

 Oil spill at Churchill Falls in October released roughly 45,000 litres of oil: Nalcor - An oil spill at the Nalcor Energy Churchill Falls switchyard in late October released roughly 45,000 litres of oil, the company said in a media release on Thursday, as it continues to work on clean up. The spill was caused by a transformer failure and fire, the company maintains, but while Nalcor at the time said the transformers hold 53,000 litres of oil, they actually hold 111,400 litres, according to Thursday's release. Nalcor said 65,000 litres of oil were recovered in tankers in the switchyard, and an unknown amount of the oil spilled was consumed by the fire. "Priority continues to be employee safety and the safe containment, control, and recovery of oil. Absorbent materials, booms, and vacuum trucks are being utilized for containment and collection," reads the company's statement. "We continue to see no visible evidence of oil in the Churchill River." In October, Nalcor said the oil used in the failed transformer was voltesso — an oil that is inherently biodegradable as opposed to readily biodegradable, meaning it will break down over time but the timeline is indefinite. However, Nalcor says now the oil spilled was actually luminol, which is readily biodegradable. "Luminol is more environmentally friendly and has a higher rate of biodegradability than voltesso," says Nalcor's statement. "Significant efforts continue to be made by the Churchill Falls team who has been safely working together in these recovery and collection efforts with dedication and commitment since the onset."

 The multi-billion-dollar merger of Canadian giants Cenovus and Husky - On October 25, a major consolidation of two Canadian oil and gas companies was announced with the planned merger of Cenovus Energy and Husky Energy. The prospective consolidation will offer the opportunity for corporate-level synergies and, over the longer term, for the physical integration of some of the companies’ operations, especially in Alberta’s oil sands. In today’s blog, we discuss some of the more nuanced elements of the consolidation, including potential improvement in crude oil market access and the larger presence of the combined company in PADD 2 refining, a sector that has taken a major hit during the pandemic. This blog also introduces a new weekly report from RBN and Baker & O’Brien: U.S. Refinery Billboard. Cenovus Energy is an integrated oil and natural gas company headquartered in Calgary, AB. It was formed when Encana Corp. (now known as Ovintiv) spun-off its oil-based assets into a separate corporation in 2009, allowing Encana to — at the time — focus on its natural gas assets. Cenovus produces oil in Canada and has refining interests in the U.S. The production assets include oil sands facilities at Christina Lake and Foster Creek (blue dots in Figure 1) and conventional operations at Marten Hills and Deep Basin (blue triangles). Notably, Cenovus announced this week that they have entered into an agreement to sell their Marten Hills oil assets to Headwater Exploration. In the U.S., Cenovus has a 50-50 partnership with Phillips 66 in WRB Refining, which has refineries in Borger, TX, and Wood River, IL (blue refinery icons). Husky Energy is also an integrated oil and natural gas company based in Calgary. The company was founded in 1938 in Cody, WY, but relocated to Canada in 1946. Since then, the company has grown organically and through acquisitions of companies such as Mohawk Oil, Renaissance Energy, and the Canadian unit of Marathon Oil, as well as the purchases of Valero Energy’s Lima, OH, refinery and Calumet’s refinery in Superior, WI. Today, the company is majority-owned by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing, the 30^th-richest person in the world. Husky’s oil production assets include oil sands operations at Sunrise, Tucker, and Lloyd Thermal (green dots in Figure 1); conventional assets at Rainbow and Deep Basin (green triangles); and offshore production in the South China Sea (the Liwan project) and the Madura Strait in Indonesia (the Madura project; green offshore platform icons in inset map), and off the coast of Newfoundland & Labrador in eastern Canada (the White Rose project; green offshore platform icon on main map). Husky’s refining assets include the Lloydminster Upgrader in Saskatchewan and asphalt refinery in Alberta; the Superior, WI, refinery (which is currently shut down and under repair after a major explosion/fire in 2018), and two refineries in Ohio (Lima and the BP-Husky JV refinery in Toledo; green refinery icons).

BP refinery closure threatens hundreds of jobs in Western Australia - In late October, British oil and gas company BP announced that over the next six months it will progressively close its refinery in the city of Kwinana near Perth, Western Australia (WA). The shutdown will cost at least 590 jobs. The refinery, the largest in Australia and the only one in WA, has been in operation for over 65 years. It currently employs 400 permanent staff and 250 contractors. It is to be converted into an import terminal that will employ only 60 people when it is completed in the middle of next year. Even before the pandemic had fully taken effect, official unemployment in Kwinana had hit 11.8 percent in the March quarter this year. This is far higher than the general rate for WA, which has just fallen to 7 percent, down from 8.7 percent in June as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. BP Australia head Frédéric Baudry told the media that the company’s decision “was not in any way a result of local policy settings,” but was in “response to the long-term structural changes to the regional fuels market.” The closure is part of a vicious global restructuring of the sector by the major oil companies, to cut costs and offset the impact of a slump in oil prices. Production is being slashed, jobs destroyed and older plants closed to facilitate the relocation of operations to newer large-scale export refineries in Asia and the Middle East. A September article by Reuters stated that global oil refiners, “reeling from months of lackluster demand and an abundance of inventories,” are cutting fuel production “because the recovery in demand from the impact of coronavirus has stalled.” Reuters reported that the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) had reduced its forecast for global oil demand for 2020 for the second time in two months “due to the faltering recovery.” The IEA also forecast that “global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average just 91.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for all of 2020, a reduction in its previous forecast of 200,000 bpd and down 8.4 million bpd from 2019’s 100.1 million bpd level.” According to natural resources research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, nearly 10 percent of high-cost refineries in Europe, or 1.4 million bpd of capacity, are in serious threat of closure over the next three years. Research and marketing agency Argus reported in August that US and Canadian refiners had already slashed 800,000 bpd of crude capacity this year and “at least 575,000 bpd of that will stay closed.” In Australia, other closures are likely to follow Kwinana with owners of the country’s three other remaining refineries already placing their operations under critical review. Ampol is considering shutting its Lytton refinery in Queensland, threatening 500 jobs, Viva Energy will possibly close its refinery in Geelong, Victoria, a facility that employs 700 people, while ExxonMobil has put a question mark over its Altona refinery in the same state, which is manned by 350 workers.

Oil spill- AIbom group demands N16.4bn compensation from NNPC --THE Akwa Ibom Oil Producing Community Development Network has asked the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation to pay the sum of N16.4bn being compensation for oil spills in some communities in the state The demand was contained in a letter addressed to NNPC Managing Director and signed by the organisation’s lawyer, Mr N. A. Williams. The letter was copied Managing Director, Nigerian Petroleum Development Company Limited; the Managing Director, Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company Ltd; the Executive Secretary, National Human Rights Commission; the Manager, Cooperate Lands Management, and the Village Head, Ikot Ada Udo Community, Ikot Abasi. According to the letter, the organisation for many years has been demanding compensation from Shell Petroleum Development Company and other oil companies due to the negative effects of hydrocarbon pollution (oil spills, gas flaring and toxic waste dumping by Exxon Mobil and gas leakages/emissions from corked and uncorked wells, especially those belonging to SPDC Ibibio I oil spill at Ikot Ada Udo and elsewhere in the state. The letter recalled that “in the case of Ikot Ada Udo, SPDC Ibibio 1 oil spill incident first occurred in the year 1997. It re-occurred in 1999, 2004 and lasted till 2007 due to Ibibio 1 oil well head facility failure. “The spills resulted in the discharge of remarkable quantity of crude oil into the majorly rural farmlands and water bodies in Ikot Ada Udo and adjoining villages in Ikpa Nung Asang Clan in Ikot Abasi L.G.A, Ibiaku/Ukpum Minya Clans in Mkpat Enin L.G.A and Abak Midim in Oruk Anam L.G.A. “The spills drastically affected the ecosystem, wellbeing of the inhabitants and the environment. “Sequel to this unfavorable development, the community Attorney consulted an Accredited Estate Surveyors and Valuers who carried out valuation of the damages caused by the said spill/gas emissions which is in the sum of N4,136,484,000.00 only for Ikot Ada Udo. “The valuation for villages in Ikpa Nung Asang in Ikot Abasi L.G.A, Ukpum Minya/Ibiaku Clan in Mkpat Enin L.G.A and other SPDC’s host communities in Akwa Ibom State is N12,266,950,000.00 (Twelve Billion, Two Hundred and Sixty-Six Million, Nine Hundred and Fifty Thousand Naira) only, totaling N16,403,434,000.00.” 

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast again on rising Covid cases — sees slower recovery next year— OPEC on Wednesday trimmed its global oil demand forecasts for the remainder of this year and 2021, citing a weaker-than-expected economic outlook and a surge in coronavirus cases. In a closely watched report, the group of oil-producing nations said it now expects world oil demand to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day year over year in 2020. That reflects a downward revision of 0.3 million barrels from last month's assessment. For next year, OPEC said oil demand growth will rise by 6.2 million on an annual basis, representing a downward revision of another 0.3 million barrels from its October report. The group has steadily lowered its oil demand outlook for 2021 from an initial expectation of 7 million in July. "These downward revisions mainly take into account downward adjustments to the economic outlook in OECD economies due to COVID-19 containment measures, with the accompanying adverse impacts on transportation and industrial fuel demand through mid-2021," OPEC said in the report. The report comes ahead of the group's Nov. 30 and Dec. 1 meeting with non-OPEC allies to discuss the next phase of oil production policy. The energy alliance, a grouping known collectively as OPEC+, had agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd starting on May 1. The cut was subsequently scaled back to 7.7 million in August and OPEC+ has said it plans further tapering next year. A coronavirus-led demand shock has seen oil prices collapse in 2020, with strict public health measures coinciding with curtailed travel and economic activity. An easing of lockdown measures in the third quarter helped global oil demand to improve, but OPEC now fears a surge in the number of reported Covid-19 cases could derail an expected recovery. "As new COVID-19 infection cases continued to rise during October in the US and Europe, forcing governments to re-introduce a number of restrictive measures, various fuels including transportation fuel are thought to bear the brunt going forward," OPEC said.

Successful vaccine would boost oil consumption, but not for 6-12 months: Kemp    (Reuters) - Coronavirus vaccines are expected to boost international passenger transportation and oil consumption, but the first significant impact will not be felt until well into the second half of 2021, based on futures price movements on Monday. Brent calendar spreads surged that day as traders priced in an announcement from Pfizer about successful immunisation trials, fuelling optimism an effective vaccine will become available within the next few months. Before Pfizer’s announcement, flat prices and spreads had been under pressure since mid-October, prompting a statement from Saudi Arabia that OPEC and its partners are prepared to “tweak” their production agreement. The combined effect of Pfizer’s announcement (potentially boosting oil consumption) and Saudi Arabia’s talk about tweaking (potentially reducing production relative to the planned baseline) sent oil futures soaring. Front-month Brent futures prices closed more than 7% higher, an increase of more than three standard deviations, and the largest one-day percentage gain since the start of June. In the last two weeks, hedge funds and other money managers had sold the equivalent of almost 120 million barrels of Brent and WTI, including the creation of 62 million barrels of fresh short positions. The existence of so many shorts accelerated the price rise, as fund managers raced to buy back some contracts they had earlier sold, a classic high-volatility short-covering rally. Pfizer’s successful trial is reason for optimism that vaccines could be effective in controlling the coronavirus, as an alternative to lockdowns and travel restrictions. But any vaccination programme will not have a major effect until the second half of 2021, and in the meantime oil consumption is set to remain depressed, leaving OPEC and its partners with more to do to rebalance the market. Despite Pfizer’s optimism, any vaccine will take time to be approved by regulators, manufactured in large volumes, deployed through the logistics system, and administered to hundreds of millions of individuals. Likely delays at each stage of the timeline will ensure most restrictions on travel, especially those on international aviation, remain in place for at least six months, and possibly much longer. In the interim, news of successful trials may make governments more determined to maintain social-distancing and travel controls to suppress the virus as much as possible until the vaccine can be widely administered. Once vaccination is underway, however, many governments will come under pressure to permit some resumption of travel for passengers who can prove they pose a low transmission risk. And businesses will be allowed to re-open and domestic travel restrictions will be lifted as part of a plan to restart economic activity. But any relaxation of coronavirus controls, including limits on aviation and congregating in crowded spaces, is likely to be carefully phased and gradual. Only in the longer run, with widespread vaccination possibly tending towards herd immunity, coupled with a cyclical upswing in the global economy, will passenger flying recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Oil jumps on vaccine hopes, OPEC+ signal to tweak deal - Oil jumped on Monday by almost 10%, the highest daily rise in almost 6 month, after Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was very effective, and Saudi Arabia said an OPEC+ deal on output cuts could be adjusted to offset rising supply and weak demand. Brent crude rose $3.33 cents, or 8.4%, to $42.78 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $40.53, up $3.39 cents, or 9.1%. Pfizer said the experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19, based on initial data from a large study. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the OPEC+ deal on oil output cuts could be adjusted as it has been in the past if there is consensus among members of the group. The Saudi minister was commenting after being asked whether OPEC+ - which groups OPEC states, Russia and other producers - would stick to existing cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), rather than easing them from January to 5.7 million bpd. Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are wary of Biden relaxing measures on Iran and Venezuela, which could mean an increase in oil production that would make it harder to balance supply with demand. "While a Biden presidency increases the likelihood of Iranian oil supply returning to the market, this is not something that will happen overnight, and we still believe it's more likely an end of 2021/2022 event," ING said in a note. The oil prices also found some support from a weaker U.S. dollar driven by Joe Biden becoming president-elect, said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS. The dollar weakened on Monday, hitting a 10-week low and boosting commodities priced in the greenback as they became more affordable for investors holding other currencies. China, the world's top crude importer, reported a 12% decline in October imports compared with September.

Oil soars 8% on promising COVID-19 vaccine results  (Reuters) - Oil surged about 8% on Monday, its biggest daily gain in more five months, after Pfizer announced promising results for its COVID-19 vaccine.  Brent crude LCOc1 settled at $42.40 a barrel, up $2.95, or 7.48%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 settled at $40.29 a barrel, rising $3.15, or 8.48%. Oil markets also rose after Saudi Arabia suggested it and other oil producers could adjust its current supply-cut pact, perhaps taking more barrels off the market if demand slumps in the winter as infections rise and before the vaccine is widely available. Fuel demand is down worldwide as a result of the pandemic, and with infections now surpassing 50 million globally, numerous nations, especially in Europe, are reimposing lockdowns to slow the virus’s spread. The vaccine news gave traders hope that the pandemic could be tamped down next year, which would help people resume normal life, boosting demand. “Oil particularly reacted to the news because of what it means,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “The pandemic is hitting transportation terrifically and 80% of crude oil barrels go to transportation fuel, so I think this is a logical response.” Both contracts rose more than $4 earlier in the session as traders sought to unwind bearish bets. Brent and WTI traded 148% and 139% of last session’s volumes, respectively. Pfizer said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19, based on initial data, a victory in the battle against a pandemic that has forced lockdowns around the world. 

Oil gains as vaccine hopes outweigh lockdown impact - Oil prices rose on Tuesday as hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine could be on the horizon outweighed the expected negative impact on fuel demand of new lockdowns to curb the virus. Brent crude futures rose 45 cents, or 1.1%, to $42.85, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 34 cents, or 0.8%, to $40.63. Both contracts jumped 8% on Monday, in their biggest daily gains in more than five months, after drugmakers Pfizer and BioNTech said an experimental COVID-19 treatment was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results. Mass rollouts, however, are likely to be months away and subject to regulatory approvals. "A viable vaccine is unequivocally game-changing for oil - a market where half of demand comes from moving people and things around," JP Morgan said in a note. "But as we have written previously, oil is a spot asset that must first clear current supply and demand imbalances before one-to-two-year out prices can rise." Prices were also boosted by comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister, who said on Monday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, could tweak their supply cut pact if demand slumps before the vaccine is available. OPEC+ agreed to cut supply by 7.7 million barrels per day from August through December and then ease the cuts by around 2 million bpd in January. But the negative impact that renewed lockdowns in Europe are having on fuel demand, as well as rising Libyan production, kept prices in check. Traffic in London, Paris and Madrid fell sharply in November after a peak in October, according to data provided to Reuters by location technology company TomTom, that covered mobility until Sunday evening. France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Poland were under the strictest lockdowns in Europe, according to the Oxford stringency index that assesses indicators such as school and workplace closures, and travel bans. Meanwhile Libyan production has risen above 1 million bpd in recent days from 100,000 bpd in early September.

Oil prices tally back-to-back gains on optimism over vaccine - Oil futures finished higher Tuesday, building on the biggest one-day gain in more than five months on optimism over prospects for a COVID-19 vaccine, even as the continued spread of the disease undercuts fuel demand. "Oil funds got caught short as the demand outlook improves with hopes that we will get a coronavirus vaccine," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. "The market was betting big on more extensions of lockdown and more demand destruction," he said in a Tuesday report. "While the vaccine is still months away, the trade must adjust for a demanding comeback that should come back faster than production." West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose $1.07, or 2.7%, to settle at $41.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude , the global benchmark, added $1.21, or nearly 2.9%, at $43.61 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.  WTI jumped 8.5%, while Brent soared 7.5% on Monday after Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Germany-based BioNTech SE (BNTX)announced their vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective in protecting people from COVID-19 in a trial. The news sparked a massive rally in stocks and other assets perceived as risky. Some analysts, however, questioned how much further upside for oil prices might be available in the near term as rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. begin to weigh on consumer and business activity. "While a successful vaccination should ultimately support the return of oil demand to normal levels, a number of hurdles, from final approval, to the ramp-up of production, to logistics remain, but hope is that a timely development could stave off the necessity for further lockdowns in the future," wrote analysts at JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consulting firm, in a Tuesday note. The consultants said their road mobility indicator for Europe, meanwhile, had dropped to its lowest level since June, with data through Nov. 6 beginning to reflect the early stages of new lockdowns in France and Germany. Analysts at Commerzbank noted that Chinese crude oil imports fell in October to their lowest level since April, while Saudi Arabia granted further discounts to Asian customers for December shipments, "presumably because of the muted demand," they said. "At a discount of [50 cents] per barrel vs. the Oman/Dubai benchmark, customers are enjoying the highest discounts since June."

Oil rises slightly on hopes for COVID-19 vaccine, declining U.S. crude stocks - Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as hopes of an effective COVID-19 vaccine continued to bolster sentiment and an industry report showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected. Brent crude rose 0.16% to $44.53 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $41.45 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained nearly 3% on Tuesday. "This week's news about a coronavirus vaccine was encouraging and, alongside short-covering activity, strongly supported oil prices on Monday and Tuesday," said Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst for UBS. The bank cautioned that European lockdowns and restored Libyan oil output could weigh on prices in the short term, but forecast oil at $60 a barrel by the end of 2021 based on the likelihood that producers would continue to rein in supply. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 5.1 million barrels last week to about 482 million barrels, industry group data showed on Tuesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a reduction of 913,000 barrels. Both Brent and U.S. oil prices are up more than 13% this week since initial trials data showed the experimental COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc and Germany's BioNTech was 90% effective. Although oil prices are supported by the positive news on the vaccine, the overall fuel demand outlook remains clouded as coronavirus restrictions are reimposed in Europe and United States. "Hopes of a return to pre-COVID normalcy next year have been given a huge boost this week. Before then, however, a difficult winter is on the cards. Infection rates are still accelerating in several parts of the world including the U.S.," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM. Renewed restrictions in Europe and the United States to combat the coronavirus have slowed the pace of the fuel demand recovery, offsetting a rebound in Asian economies where consumption has almost returned to pre-COVID levels.

Oil CEOs believe a demand recovery is coming, but volatility is here to stay - Top energy chief executives say oil demand will recover next year, but they expect volatility to remain elevated, as the industry emerges from the reckoning of the coronavirus pandemic. "We face a lot of uncertainty," Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne told an invitation-only gathering of more than 30 senior oil and gas executives, who met virtually on Wednesday for the Abu Dhabi CEO Roundtable. "We all hope that demand will recover as quickly as possible," Pouyanne said. "Nobody knows exactly how long it will take to get out of the pandemic, when we'll have this vaccine, and how long it will take to reopen the global economy," he added. A source familiar with the discussions said the mood among the executives was more upbeat than the last meeting held in June, with news of a potential vaccine giving executives a boost of confidence. Leaders expressed a cautious optimism about the global economic recovery and discussed the need to focus on cost reductions and technology gains. "We should have optimism, and we should have a sense of reality," BP CEO Bernard Looney told the gathered executives. "We don't control the price of our product, but we do control our cost structure, our investment levels, and the efficiency of that," Looney added. "The fundamentals that we all learned as we were growing up in this industry will serve us well in the long run." The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously said that this year's global energy demand decline will be seven times larger than the fall following the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Most analysts expect global oil demand will take several years to recover to pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day. The roundtable, convened by Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE minister of industry and advanced technology and the ADNOC Group's CEO, is the highest-level forum for dialogue on key topics confronting the global energy landscape. It gives executives the opportunity to privately discuss the strength and speed of energy demand and the economic recovery. "The oil and gas industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past few months, and we know the long-term fundamentals of the industry remain intact as the world will still need hydrocarbons for many decades to come," Al Jaber said.

 IEA says Covid vaccine 'unlikely to ride to the rescue' of world oil market for some time— The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday cut its 2020 global oil demand forecast and said it does not expect the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine to significantly boost demand "until well into next year." In its latest closely-watched monthly report, the IEA said it now expects world oil demand to contract by 8.8 million barrels per day this year. That reflects a downward revision of 0.4 million barrels from last month's assessment. The Paris-based energy agency trimmed its near-term outlook on weak historical data and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Europe and the U.S. For 2021, the IEA said world oil demand growth will rise by 5.8 million barrels per day, representing an upward revision of 0.3 million barrels from last month. Oil prices have notched three consecutive trading sessions of gains since Pfizer and BioNTech said Monday that early results showed their vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid infections. It is hoped a safe and effective vaccine could help bring an end to the coronavirus pandemic that has claimed over 1.28 million lives worldwide. Huge challenges remain before a Covid-19 vaccine can be rolled out, but oil markets cheered the news, hoping it could lead to increased energy demand in the coming months. "However, it is far too early to know how and when vaccines will allow normal life to resume. For now, our forecasts do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021," the IEA said. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $43.66 a barrel on Thursday morning, down around 0.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $41.33, roughly 0.35% lower. The IEA's latest report comes shortly before an energy alliance of some of the world's most powerful crude producers will meet to discuss the next phase of oil production policy. OPEC and non-OPEC allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are scheduled to hold talks on Dec. 1. In the face of ongoing lackluster global demand for oil, the group had agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million barrels per day starting on May 1. The cut was subsequently scaled back to 7.7 million in August and OPEC+ has said it plans further tapering next year. "With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries," the IEA said. "Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress."

Oil falls on coronavirus surge, unexpected U.S. crude stockpile rise (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by the surge in coronavirus cases that is hampering the global economy, along with an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles. Oil futures tracked with U.S. equities, which also fell on pandemic concerns. Europe is grappling with a sharp increase in infections and new social restrictions. In the United States, new cases have surpassed 100,000 per day for several days, and more than a dozen states have doubled their caseloads in the last two weeks. Brent crude fell 27 cents to settle at $43.53 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 33 cents to settle at $41.12 a barrel. “When stocks gave up gains, oil followed,” . “It’s a very nervous market.” U.S. government data added to the bearishness, as crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with an expected fall of 913,000 barrels. Both contracts rallied this week after data showed an experimental coronavirus vaccine being developed by Pfizer and BioNTech  was 90% effective, raising hopes that the pandemic will be brought under control. Even with that development, though, oil demand remains shaky. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand was unlikely to rise significantly until well into 2021, if the vaccine is successful.

Oil Prices Falter on Surprise Build and Fed Warning  -- Oil dropped after an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles and a Federal Reserve warning that a vaccine may not be enough to get the economy back on track. Futures in New York fell 0.8% after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, erasing gains of as much as 1.8% in a volatile session. American’s crude inventories increased by 4.28 million barrels last week, the government said Thursday, while most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a decline. Slowing refining activity also didn’t bode well for oil demand. “We won’t be getting stimulus until at least January, so that’s hit all the markets,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “Oil needs the economy to be revived and supported to get people spending and traveling at least to a degree.” The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand earlier, saying the coronavirus vaccine breakthrough won’t quickly revive markets. The constantly evolving state of demand recovery taking place at varying speeds around the world adds to the challenges facing OPEC+ when it meets at the end of the month to decide on its output strategy. While renewed lockdowns in Europe have coincided with weakening road travel, particularly in France and the U.K., it’s a mixed demand picture globally. India -- whose consumption dwarfs both countries -- posted its first annual increase since February and a return in Chinese buying interest is helping spur an oil buying frenzy. Earlier in the trading session, crude rose after OPEC+ signaled it might not phase out its output curbs so fast next year.  “Vaccine or not, OPEC’s not really counting on oil demand to recover here in the next six months.” West Texas Intermediate for December delivery fell 33 cents to settle at $41.12 a barrel. Brent for January settlement lost 27 cents to $43.53 a barrel. Despite the surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles, the EIA report also showed declines in both gasoline and distillate inventories. Distillate stockpiles dropped for eight straight weeks, pushing supplies down from a decade seasonal high.

Oil falls on rising Libya output, coronavirus surge (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 2% on Friday, pressured by swelling output from Libya and fears that rising coronavirus infections may slow the recovery in the global economy and fuel demand. Hopes for a vaccine kept crude futures on track for a second straight weekly gain. Brent crude LCOc1 fell 75 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $42.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fell 99 cents, or 2.4%, to end the session at $40.13 a barrel. For the week, both notched gains of more than 8%. Libyan oil production has risen to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a Libyan oil source told Reuters, up from the 1.0 million bpd reported on Nov. 7 by the country’s National Oil Corp. Signs of rising production in the U.S. added to bearish sentiment. U.S. oil rigs rose 10 to 236 this week, according to Baker Hughes data, their highest since May. Also pressuring prices, U.S. government data showed crude inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected a draw of 913,000 barrels. “In essence, some of the feel-good factor from the Pfizer vaccine has worn off and disappointing EIA figures have created a bit of a downward correction,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, said. “However, OPEC+ is prepared to tweak its production and we’re still waiting for the trial results of other vaccines that may be easier to distribute since they won’t need such cold storage.” New coronavirus infections in the United States and elsewhere are at record levels and tightening restrictions should lead to fuel demand recovering more slowly than many had hoped.

Oil Prices End the Week Higher Despite Hiccups  -- Oil declined for a second session as rising Covid-19 cases threatened to derail demand with tougher restrictions in major U.S. cities on the horizon. Futures fell 2.4% in New York on Friday, but still posted the largest weekly gain in a month as optimism from news of a potential Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough jolted markets earlier in the week. Despite the measure of hope for the long-term, U.S. cities from the West to East coasts have imposed stricter measures to slow surging case counts, raising concerns that the virus will further crimp demand for fuel. Gasoline futures also slumped. “In the U.S., the virus spread is exponential and right now many states are probably going to be forced to deliver stricter measures and return to lockdowns,” . “That’s going to cripple economic activity and put further pressure in the short-term as far as the crude demand outlook goes.” Before concerns over lockdowns set in, futures also got support from signs the OPEC+ alliance is inching closer to delaying a planned output increase in January. But downbeat demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC have clouded hopes of a recovery. At the same time, governors of states along the U.S. West Coast issued travel advisories, following measures recently imposed in New York and Chicago. Meanwhile, crude supply in Libya is rising. The country’s production rose to 1.145 million barrels a day on Friday, according to a spokesman for its state-run National Oil Corp.  Prices West Texas Intermediate for December delivery lost 99 cents to settle at $40.13 a barrel. The contract rose 8.1% this week. Brent for January settlement slid 75 cents to $42.78 a barrel Gasoline for December delivery declined 2.7% to $1.1254 a gallon In Europe, where motorway traffic is down by almost 50% in some countries, demand is stuttering anew. That’s impacting crude, with six supertankers of unwanted North Sea oil continuing to float in the region. Meanwhile, vehicle miles traveled on U.S. highways fell last week in another sign Americans are keeping off the roads amid the pandemic. Refining margins were left behind in the oil market rally that lifted not only headline prices this week, but also led to strong moves along the forward curve. The combined refining margin for gasoline and diesel, which is a rough gauge for the profitability of processing a barrel of oil, slid on Friday for a third straight session to near $8 a barrel. Refineries typically need the so-called crack to be above $10 a barrel to turn a profit from processing crude.

  Coronavirus pandemic intensifies humanitarian disaster in Yemen - In war-torn Yemen—devastated by five years of a US- and EU-backed war led by Saudi Arabia—the coronavirus pandemic is exhibiting its murderous potential. Doctors there report a death rate of 20 to 30 percent among those infected. Intensive care physician Tankred Stöbe from the aid organization Doctors Without Borders told the German newspaper Tagesspiegel of the dramatic consequences of the pandemic . The pandemic, he noted, has swept through the bitterly poor and war-ravaged country “like a deadly desert storm.” Stöbe estimates a 30 percent mortality rate among COVID-19 patients, the highest in the world. A significant lack of testing renders the official figures—just over 2,000 confirmed cases and 600 deaths—meaningless. “The vast majority of patients have suffocated in their homes without being counted, diagnosed or treated.” Many Yemenis live far from a clinic and are left to fend for themselves if infected with the coronavirus. The virus spreads virtually unchecked. “There is hardly a family that has not been affected by the pandemic,” Stöbe reports. Doctors Without Borders erected a specialized COVID-19 clinic whose 40 beds were immediately filled. “The mortality was very high because patients came too late,” Stöbe explained. “The average length of stay was five days—but not because people recovered, but because they died.” The clinic contends with a chronic shortage of personnel and materials. Moreover, the staff must transport oxygen bottles across residential districts devastated by war. The high mortality rate is primarily due to the preexisting, unimaginable humanitarian catastrophe in the country from a years-long civil war and an imperialist-backed bombing campaign. Saudi Arabia has waged an unrelenting air war in Yemen since March 2015 aimed at toppling the Huthi rebel government and reimposing the puppet regime of imperialist stooge Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. The United States, France, Great Britain and Germany have all supported this murderous war, directly or indirectly. As such, the German government has exported over €1 billion in weaponry to countries participating in the war. Stöbe described the situation now unfolding in Yemen as an “unbelievable tragedy.” Bombing and live fire continue on a daily basis: “Tens of thousands have already died. Millions have been displaced.” Were the criteria and legal principles of the Nuremberg Trials to be applied to Yemen, the politicians responsible for these crimes against humanity would be tried in court and locked behind bars. Sentences handed down in Nuremberg after the Second World War sent the surviving leaders of the Third Reich to the gallows or a lifetime in prison.

 Russia, Turkey negotiate cease-fire in Armenian-Azeri war over Karabakh - On November 10, a cease-fire backed by Moscow and Ankara went into effect in the six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Unlike previous truces negotiated by Russian, French and US officials which collapsed immediately, this cease-fire has so far held. This appears to be largely because, unlike previous ceasefires, it has support from the Azeri government and its main international backer, Turkey. The two former Soviet republics have repeatedly waged fratricidal wars over the Karabakh, which first broke out in 1988 in the run-up to the Stalinist regime’s 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. Whereas Armenia took over the Nagorno-Karabakh in the 1988-1994 war, however, the current cease-fire agreed by Russian, Armenian and Azeri officials makes substantial concessions to Azeri territorial demands, handing much of the Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Recent weeks saw major Azeri advances, relying on devastating strikes from Turkish and Israeli high-altitude drones. Evading Armenia’s older air defense systems with tactics worked out against Syrian and Russian forces in the decade-long NATO proxy war in Syria, they destroyed Armenian missile batteries, artillery and armored vehicles. After Azeri forces reported this weekend that they had captured Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh’s second-largest city, Armenia agreed to a ceasefire. According to the truce, Armenian and Azeri troops are to initially remain on their current positions. As 1,960 Russian peacekeepers with armored vehicles and equipment deploy along the contact line, however, Armenian troops will withdraw. Armenia will retain those parts of the Karabakh it currently holds, including the capital, Stepanakert. It must also return to Azerbaijan the districts of Agdam and Kalbajar, which it took over during the 1988-1994 war, by November 20. The deal also calls to secure complex land routes through the mountainous region. Azerbaijan is to guarantee the security of the Lachin Corridor linking Stepanakert to Shusha and then to Armenia. The corridor will be patrolled by Russian peacekeepers. Armenia will guarantee the security of land routes from Azerbaijan via Armenia to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, a landlocked Azeri-administered enclave separated from Azerbaijan by Armenian territory.

Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia -- Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender.  Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory. Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets.  The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions".  Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.”  “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare. 

Veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat dies after battle with Covid-19— Saeb Erekat, a senior Palestinian politician and veteran peace negotiator, has died weeks after testing positive for the coronavirus. He was 65. A spokesperson for Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem confirmed to NBC News that he had passed away. The hospital said Erekat was admitted last month infected by the coronavirus and in a "critical condition." Erekat, who had previously had a lung transplant, passed away following multi-organ failure, the statement added. One of the most recognizable faces among the Palestinian leadership, for decades Erekat served as a senior negotiator in talks with Israel, often donning a black-and-white checked Palestinian kaffiyeh scarf.

China leapfrogs world with first 6G experimental satellite - The space race is on! And China has leap-frogged the world in satellite communication. Not only did China send 13 more satellites into orbit today, it also successfully completed a world’s first, sending up a sixth-generation communications test satellite, Yicai Global reported. The devices were put into space by a Long March-6 carrier rocket that blasted off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, China Central Television (CCTV) reported. The 6G satellite was among three Chinese satellites successfully launched into orbit, along with 10 commercial remote sensing satellites developed by Argentinian company Satellogic, media reports said. Named after the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, the satellite was jointly developed by Chengdu Guoxing Aerospace Technology, UESTC, and Beijing MinoSpace Technology. It will be used to verify the performance of 6G technology in space as the 6G frequency band will expand from the 5G millimeter wave frequency to the terahertz frequency, Yicai reported. The satellite is the first technical test of terahertz communication’s application in space, said Xu Yangsheng, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Engineering. The technology is expected to be over 100 times faster than 5G, enabling lossless transmission in space to achieve long-distance communications with a smaller power output, Yicai reported. The technology allows terahertz to be widely used in satellite internet, said Lu Chuan, head of the UESTC’s Institute of Satellite Industry Technology. The satellite carries an optical remote sensing load system to monitor crop disasters, prevent forest fires, check forestry resources, and monitor water conservancy and mountain floods as well as provide abundant satellite images and data, Lu noted. According to China Daily, 6G technology is still in its infancy and must overcome several technical hurdles in basic research, hardware design, and its environmental impact before the technology becomes commercially available, according to a white paper published by Finland’s University of Oulu. Moreover, some scientists worried that 6G’s new infrastructure, the increased integration of space-air-ground-sea communication technologies, and the use of a new frequency range to transmit data might affect astronomical instruments or public health, or be too expensive or insecure for researchers to use.

 Bill Gates-Funded 'Child Labor Is Good' Article Triggers Internet Outrage - While the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has routinely strived to support people in extreme poverty by improving their health and economic mobility through various programs, the foundation may have gone off the deep end by bizarrely sponsoring an article that promotes child labor. The article in question was published in The Guardian's "Global Development" section on Friday is titled "Child labour doesn't have to be exploitation – it gave me life skills." Underneath the header, a logo of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is visible with text that says, "Global development is supported by" the foundation.  Written by Elizabeth Sibale, the deputy chief of party at global impact firm Palladium, praises her childhood experience in Malawi, doing hard work for her family - such as food prepping, carrying water, and babysitting her siblings - as an example of the hard work she did to mold her into the women she is today. "However, where do you draw the line between what has internationally deemed a crime and a natural process of transferring skills? Is international concern on child rights relevant to Africa?" Sibale said. She said, "contrary to popular belief, most child labourers are employed by their parents rather than in manufacturing or the formal economy." Adding that "in Africa, where many areas have no social security or social services to support the vulnerable, families are responsible for educating and training the next generation to become capable adults." RT News points out that her opinion piece "was apparently built on discussions at a seminar held last month by Palladium. The point that cultures have different norms on what work should be considered appropriate for a child is hardly debatable." RT, quoting the International Labor Organization, says child work that impeeds education or is hazardous is a form of child labor. "The crux of the issue is how to treat dirt-poor parents, who keep their kids out of classrooms because they are needed to support the household. Sibale and her colleagues argue that westerners should mind their cultural biases when looking at domestic chores," RT said. Apparently, some on Twitter were not pleased with the article, saying: "billionaire-funded 'child labor is good' takes has to be a new stage of capitalist dystopia."   Someone tweeted: "Bill Gates is one of the good billionaires". Another person said, "Being a child soldier doesn't have to be a negative experience. I learned a lot about discipline and psychological manipulation."

'Generational catastrophe' looms as 97 percent of Latin American students are out of school - The coronavirus pandemic is disproportionately threatening the education of millions of children in Latin America and the Caribbean due to school closures aimed at curbing the spread of the virus and lack of resources for remote learning, a UNICEF report released Monday says.  The United Nations children's agency found 97 percent of children in Latin America and the Caribbean — more than 137 million children — have been out of the classroom more than seven months into the pandemic.   The report says those children have lost 174 days of learning on average compared to the rest of the world, and are now at risk of missing out on an entire school year as the pandemic rages on and the majority of classrooms remain closed across the region. “Across Latin America and the Caribbean, millions of the most vulnerable students may not return to school,” Bernt Aasen, UNICEF Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, said in a statement. “For those without computers, without internet, or even without a place to study, learning from home has become a daunting challenge.”The educational gaps between poor and wealthy families across the region has significantly widened as a consequence of the pandemic. The percentage of children not receiving any form of education has spiked from 4 percent to 18 percent over the course of a few months and the UN projects the pandemic could push an additional 3 million out of school. The report warns a “generational catastrophe” is looming as progress in education in the regions over the past several decades are at risk of being reversed. “The economic impact of this education crisis will be felt for years to come,” the report said. Latin America has reported more than 11.6 million cases so far and more than 400,000 deaths, according to a Reuters tally.

Ukraine's president tests positive for COVID-19  - Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced Monday that he had tested positive for COVID-19. In a tweet Monday afternoon local time, Zelensky said that he would self-isolate and continue to work remotely while he recovered from the virus. "There are no lucky people for whom #COVID19 does not pose a threat. Despite all the quarantine measures, I received a positive test. I feel good & take a lot of vitamins. Promise to isolate myself, but keep working. I will overcome COVID19 as most people do. It's gonna be fine!" he wrote. Ukraine's rate of new COVID-19 cases has surged in recent weeks along with the arrival of fall and reached 10,000 cases per day for the first time this month. The country has recorded just under half a million infections since the pandemic began, according to a Johns Hopkins University tracker. Zelensky was drawn into U.S. headlines last year when it was revealed that President Trump had urged Zelensky and Ukraine's government to open a politically-charged investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden (D) over supposedly corrupt dealings involving his son Hunter Biden in Ukraine. Zelensky's government declined to do so. Trump's contacts with Zelensky formed the basis of House Democrats' articles of impeachment against the president, passed late last year, for which Trump was acquitted in a Senate trial in early 2020.

Denmark shelves plans to cull up to 17 million mink over coronavirus concerns - The Danish government has paused plans to mandate culling of the country’s entire mink population to contain a coronavirus mutation that had arisen in the infected animals after conceding it had no legal authority to carry out the plan, according to The Washington Post. Danish authorities last week announced they were moving forward with plans to cull up to 17 million animals due to the strain, following early lab results that showed the mutation could be less sensitive to antibodies and impact the effectiveness of a future vaccine. The strain spread from minks to at least 12 humans in August and September and was confirmed to be found on only five of the more than 1,000 farms in the country. But the decision to kill the animals that are relied on for the country’s profitable fur industry hit a snag after health authorities warned the move could be too premature. The World Health Organization also cautioned that it is too early to determine if the mutation was significant enough to pose an increased risk to humans.Viruses naturally mutate, and scientists have observed minor mutations in the new novel coronavirus, but none that have affected its ability to spread or cause disease in any significant way. Members of Parliament argued the Danish government cannot legally order the mass culling and refused to pass legislation that would authorize the order.“There are huge doubts relating to whether the planned cull was based on an adequate scientific basis,” Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, leader of the opposition Liberals, said, according to Bloomberg. “At the same time, one’s depriving a lot of people of their livelihoods.” Authorities pushing the order backtracked on Monday and conceded they could not legally order the killing of the animals outside areas considered to be high-risk. On Tuesday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen apologized for issuing the order, the Post reports citing state broadcaster TV 2. Frederiksen, however, has not ruled out a future cull.  Coronavirus outbreaks within mink farms have persisted in Denmark over the course of the pandemic despite ongoing efforts by the government to cull herds of infected animals.

 Teachers strike across France against Macron administration’s “herd immunity” policy for schools - Yesterday, tens of thousands of teachers across France took part in a one-day strike action to oppose the Macron administration’s criminal and reckless policy of allowing the coronavirus pandemic to spread through schools.According to the trade unions, the strike participation was between 20 percent among primary school teachers and 45 percent in middle schools. The government’s own figures, which generally underestimate the actual participation in strikes, recorded participation of 8.8 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.The one-day strike followed a week of walkouts organized by rank-and-file teachers since the resumption of classes following the holiday break last Monday. Teachers at dozens of schools convened meetings before school and voted not to enter classrooms, under conditions of a massive resurgence of the virus and where not even the most minimal social distancing measures are in place to prevent its spread among students, teachers and their families.Students also protested at about 10 high schools in the Paris area yesterday. They blockaded entrances to schools and demanded that schools be closed. As with last week’s protests, riot police were swiftly called out to violently repress the protests using tear gas and charges with riot shields. Police set up cordons outside several high schools and demanded papers from every student before allowing them to enter. Teachers protest in front of the Local Education Authority of Pau, southwestern France, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2020, asking for the protection of pupils from the COVID-19. (AP Photo/Bob Edme) The Macron government’s policy has allowed the pandemic to spread beyond control. Another 472 people died on Tuesday. The day before, 551 had died, the highest daily death toll in the autumn, and only slightly below the record of 613 people who died on April 6. In the last 24 hours, the number of occupied emergency care beds increased by 472, bringing the total to 4,736. A total of 3,168 people were admitted to hospitals. The rolling seven-day average of new coronavirus cases is now well over 40,000, equivalent on a per-capita basis to more than 200,000 cases daily in the United States.

Herd immunity policy in German schools leads to explosion of coronavirus infections - The number of people infected with coronavirus in Germany continues to rise steadily, with more people being taken into hospital, intensive care units and needing ventilators every day. On Friday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) registered 23,542 COVID-19 infections in 24 hours, an all-time high. Over 600 new patients were admitted to intensive care units and another 218 patients died from the virus. This week, pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and BioNTech announced news of a possible breakthrough in the search for a COVID-19 vaccine. Other clinical studies also confirm that it may soon be technically possible to provide the world’s population with a vaccine against Sars-CoV-2. A possible end to the pandemic is thus within reach. And yet capitalist politicians refuse to do everything possible to protect the population. They continue to insist that it is necessary to “live with the virus,” maintaining their de facto herd immunity policy. This is especially true in the federal state of Hesse and the cities of Offenbach and Frankfurt am Main. Both districts have unusually high case numbers. Offenbach, in Hesse, has the highest seven-day incidence rate—317 infected persons per 100,000 inhabitants—and Frankfurt follows in second place with an incidence rate of 273.2. It is no coincidence that it is precisely in these two cities that the most elementary World Health Organization requirements for controlling the pandemic—testing, isolation and contact tracing—are blatantly disregarded. To keep schools, day-care centres and businesses open at all costs, the politicians responsible in Frankfurt and Offenbach have decided to quarantine only those students who have tested positive at school. If a student is proven to be infected, neither the student’s classmates nor teachers are sent home or even tested.  The case of a schoolgirl in Offenbach reported by the Hessenschau and broadcaster ARD brings to light the full extent of the criminal negligence involved. Schoolgirl Mara, whose classmate tested positive for coronavirus, sat in the classroom behind the sick girl. Nevertheless, she continued attending school untested. Her mother then organized her own test—and lo and behold, Mara was also positive. “If I had stayed in school,” the girl commented, “I would have spent more time with my classmates and friends, who might have become infected.”

The Collateral Damage to Children’s Education During Lockdown - School closures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about how well children were learning out of school, and which groups were most likely to fall behind. According to the UN, some 95% of the world’s school population have been affected by now, constituting the largest disruption to education in history (United Nations 2020). Many observers have pointed to the potential harm in terms of learning progress, and the increased care burden on parents (Burgess and Sievertsen 2020, Ilzetzki 2020, Kuhfeld et al. 2020, Moroni et al. 2020). In countries like England, Germany, or France, leaders have opted to close bars and restaurants while letting schools stay open when going into a second lockdown. In other countries, stimulus packets are being directed at the economy while children are still being kept at home.  As the debate rages, reliable evidence on the costs of school closures has been hard to come by. There are several reasons for this. Data from schools are usually not collected and disseminated in real time, unlike data on economic activity, hospitalisations, or fatalities that have dominated the debate on the impacts of the pandemic (Chetty et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020). Another challenge is inferential: test scores can fluctuate from one year to the next, so valid inference ideally requires data from before schools closed and after they reopened. We also need a relevant comparison group, and information to ensure that the two are similar in relevant respects. For example, if advantaged families keep their children from going back to school, average test scores may decline even if there is no loss of learning. In this column, we provide new information on how children’s learning suffered when primary schools closed for eight weeks in the Netherlands (Engzell et al. 2020). We meet the above challenges by drawing on exceptionally rich data and nationally standardised tests that took place just before and after lockdown. This lets us implement a difference-in-differences design where we compare progress during school closures to that occurring in a normal year. We adjust for selection bias by matching on a large set of observables, but also with fixed-effects models that compare students within the same school and family. The Netherlands is especially interesting as a ‘best-case’ scenario with a relatively light impact in the first pandemic wave, a short lockdown, and world-leading rates of broadband access (Di Pietro et al. 2020).

Replacing Rentier Capitalism Is One of the Defining Challenges of Our Age - As the COVID-19 crisis grinds on, it’s increasingly clear that the UK’s broken economy – an economy based on the extraction of rent – is deepening the pain. In August, people were prematurely cajoled back to the office, amid rising panic at the ‘hollowing out’ of city-centres built on inflated commercial property values. In September, students were herded back into overcrowded university accommodation, which duly became the epicentre of the second wave.Many suspected that this predictable disaster was allowed to unfold at least partly because of the dependence of universities and private landlords on rental income from student halls. Meanwhile, the divide between private renters and homeowners yawns ever wider. While buy-to-let landlords have been able to access mortgage holidays, their tenants struggle with escalating rent debt. Social movements are gearing up to resist evictions after the temporary ban was lifted. While the government’s stamp duty holiday has helped house prices to bounce back, there is no sign whatsoever that jobs and living standards will do the same.Housing itself is just the most egregious tip of a very large iceberg. Everywhere you look, COVID-19 is widening the gulf between those who own assets and those who owe debts. Buoyed by central bank interventions, capital markets have seen the promised ‘V-shaped recovery’ – but for everyone else, this is now a distant fantasy. Our economy and our politics seem increasingly oriented around the interests of asset owners, and increasingly uncaring about the fates of everyone else.Vast sums are siphoned off to failing private providers – including £12 billion for our disastrous test-and-trace system – while government quibbles over the relatively tiny amounts needed to ward off outright destitution (£65 million for Greater Manchester to weather its local lockdown, £21 million a week to feed hungry children). Rishi Sunak might be trying to revive the old chestnut that “there is no money left”. Yet increasingly, people are beginning to suspect that the problem isn’t the amount of money available, but where that money goes. This is intimately bound up with the question of where power lies.

Head of UK Armed Forces Warns That World War 3 Could Be Triggered Soon -- According to the head of UK armed forces, General Sir Nick Carter, the world is at risk of a new world war if current conflicts grow out of control. He also said that the current COVID pandemic and subsequent economic downturn could also exacerbate geopolitical conditions. Carter’s comments came on Remembrance Sunday, the holiday that honors the lives lost during the first two world wars. Carter said that remembering the sacrifices of these wars is still important today because we are at risk of repeating the same mistakes. In an interview with Sky News , the chief of the defense staff gave insights into the future of British Armed Forces, saying that robots could represent up to a quarter of the British army in the 2030s. Carter said the world is in “a very uncertain and anxious place.” “I think the real risk we have, with quite a lot of regional conflicts that are going on at the moment, is you could see escalation lead to miscalculation and that is a thing I think we have to guard against,” he said.“The protagonists, either because they don’t realise the implications of their actions, lead to an escalation, which means that more people perhaps get involved, more weaponry gets involved and before you can contain it, it leads the sides ending up in a full-blown war. We have to remember history might not repeat itself but it has a rhythm and if you look back at the last century, before both world wars, I think it was unarguable that there was escalation that led to the miscalculation which ultimately led to war at a scale we would hopefully never see again,” Carter explained. When asked if the threat of another world war was real, General Carter said that “I am saying it’s a risk and I think we need to be conscious of those risks.”Carter warned that world leaders would need to be “very cautious about how you manage the sorts of regional conflicts that we see playing out in the world today.” He did not name any particular conflicts specifically, but there are already many proxy wars taking place around the globe, in which large countries with nuclear capabilities such as the United States and Russia are each funding opposing sides of conflicts in impoverished countries with the hopes of benefiting from the outcomes. Any of these numerous conflicts could easily grow out of control and spark a larger war between nuclear militaries.  Carter has been a controversial figure throughout his career for all the right reasons. Other generals in the United States have criticized him for being too “risk-averse” on the battlefield and being too concerned about civilian casualties. His comments on Remembrance Sunday about how war should be avoided at all costs reflect this attitude, which has been praised by some, and criticized by others. The full interview with General Carter can be viewed below: