week ending Nov 28

 Fed Signals New Guidance Coming on Asset-Purchase Program – WSJ -- Federal Reserve officials this month discussed plans to provide more information about how long they will keep purchasing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by linking the time frame for the stimulus program to economic conditions. Minutes of the Nov 4-5 meeting released Wednesday showed officials were prepared to roll out the revised guidance as soon as their next meeting, set for Dec. 15-16. They also discussed ways that the purchases could be altered to provide more stimulus to the economy, if needed. But they didn’t indicate any imminent changes in that direction. Whether the Fed takes any of those additional steps next month could depend on how the economy and financial markets weather rising virus infections and the removal, at the end of the year, of emergency lending programs established by the Fed and the Treasury Department. Since June, the Fed has been buying $80 billion a month in Treasurys and $40 billion in mortgage securities, net of redemptions, and its rate-setting committee said in its policy statement that those purchases would continue “over coming months.” “Many participants judged that the committee might want to enhance its guidance for asset purchases fairly soon,” the minutes said. In September, the Fed provided guidance about its interest-rate plans by laying out three economic conditions that would need to be met before it raised rates from near zero. The Fed said it would hold rates at that level until the labor market is healed, inflation hits 2% and inflation is projected to run moderately above 2%. Similar guidance for the asset purchases could say, for example, that the central bank won’t reduce the pace until the pandemic has passed, or until officials are satisfied that they are on track to meet those other conditions. Most officials thought the guidance should imply that they would slow the pace of bond purchases before beginning to raise short-term interest rates, the minutes said. At their meeting this month, officials said it would be important for the new guidance around asset purchases to be consistent with the September guidance around interest rates “so that the use of these tools would be well coordinated,” the minutes said. A few officials said they were hesitant to make the change soon because the economic outlook was so uncertain. Fed officials are navigating an outlook clouded by the risk that the economic recovery slows in the winter months amid rising coronavirus cases. At the same time, positive developments about vaccine trials raises the prospect of a stronger rebound later in 2021.

Why the Trump administration curbing the Fed’s lending powers is such a big deal -  Dec. 31 is shaping up to be a bleak day for the U.S. economy. Millions of unemployed Americans will no longer qualify for government aid. Renters will lose their protections for evictions. Student loan debt-holders will lose their relief. And now it looks like the Federal Reserve will be forced to end a bunch of emergency lifeline programs for troubled businesses, cities and states. The ending of all this aid is coming at a rough time. The economic recovery is stalling and starting to backslide. Layoffs are ticking up again, household spending is slowing and people aren’t venturing out much as coronavirus cases skyrocket in much of the country. Business leaders, economists and even many Wall Street investors are urging government leaders to enact more aid to get the nation through the winter without more dramatic losses of jobs, businesses and even lives. Yet instead of looking for ways to get more relief out, the Trump administration took steps this week to further reduce what aid will be available in January.  On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stunned many by sending a letter to the Fed insisting the central bank return all unused emergency Cares Act funds to Treasury by the end of the year. Ever since the Fed announced these special lendin facilities that would provide additional aid, if needed, to small businesses, corporations and municipalities, the bond markets relaxed. It was basically the equivalent of a young child being able to see a parent at the edge of the playground. The child doesn’t necessarily need to hold the parent’s hand all the time, but just knowing that backup support is nearby provides enough of a sense of comfort. The cost of corporate borrowing fell after the Fed put these supports in place. Mnuchin wants to take that support away just as the economy appears to be heading into a very rough winter — and a transition of power to the Biden administration. The situation is so worrisome that Wall Street firm JPMorgan Chase just started warning clients that U.S. economic growth is likely to be negative in early 2021.Even the Fed, which has gone out of its way to refrain from saying anything about the Trump administration, felt the need to issue a statement Thursday publicly disagreeing with Mnuchin’s request.“The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy,” the Fed said.  It’s a gamble that could have devastating consequences this winter if the nation can’t get the coronavirus under control while layoffs and business closures escalate.

The Mnuchin-Powell Affair Over the Fed’s “Special Purpose Vehicles” in Dollars & Effects -- Fed Chair Jerome Powell replied on Friday afternoon with his own “Dear Mr. Secretary” letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s “Dear Chair Powell” letter on Thursday. Both letters were full of compliments for the other and for their cooperation and for their success in inflating asset prices. But with regards to asset prices in the credit markets, Mnuchin’s letter gave specific metrics and said enough is enough. And Powell’s letter said, OK, the Treasury can have the taxpayer money back that it sent us.  You’d think something earth-shattering happened based on the media hullabaloo that ensued.  On Thursday afternoon, Mnuchin informed the Fed of two things: One that he would not extend again the already extended expiration date of December 31 of five of the controversial over-the-line Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) the Fed had set up earlier this year under the direction of the Treasury to bail out and enrich bondholders, particularly junk-bond holders and speculators with huge leveraged bets; and two, that he wants the Fed to return the $455 billion in taxpayer money the Treasury had sent to the Fed to fund these SPVs with equity capital, and that the Fed has not used. The actual bond purchases the Fed did under these five SPVs were minuscule by Fed standards, whose balance sheet is measured in trillions of dollars. Those SPVs were mostly used as a jawboning tool to inflate asset prices. Between the Fed’s first announcement of these SPVs in March and the end of October, the Fed bought just $22.6 billion under these five programs, including corporate bonds, corporate bond ETFs, asset-backed securities, municipal bonds, and bank loans to main-street businesses, a minuscule amount considering its $7.24 trillion with a T in total assets.  The total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet as of Wednesday amounted to $7.24 trillion, a tad higher than on June 10, with a dip in the middle. Of that $7.24 trillion in assets, the $22.6 billion in these to be expiring SPVs is so small that it cannot even be marked into this chart: In his letter on Thursday, Mnuchin listed 12 key financial metrics to show that those SPVs did accomplish their goal of bailing out and enriching bondholders and leveraged speculators, and in the process, they created wondrous credit markets that are now frothing at the mouth.  And the Fed did it, as Mnuchin acknowledged, almost exclusively through hype and jawboning, instead of actually buying the corporate bonds and other instruments. And most of the money the Treasury had sent remained unused, and could now be used for direct Covid-related fiscal relief by the government instead of enriching bondholders via the Fed. In an interview on CNBC, Mnuchin, after being accused of playing political games, said all the right things – maybe for the wrong reasons – when discussing why he’d let these five SPVs expire as planned: “We’re not trying to hinder anything. We’re following the law,” he said. “I am being prudent and returning the money to Congress like I’m supposed to,” he said. “This is not a political decision.” And he said, “The people that really need support right now are not the rich corporations, it is the small businesses.”  OK, what Mnuchin didn’t say was that bondholders and bond-speculators have gotten immensely rich by the market’s reaction to the March announcement of these SPVs and the hype and jawboning that came along with it, as bond prices surged across the board. Powell  in his “Dear Mr. Secretary” letter on Friday afternoon told Mnuchin – after going through the same kind of mutual back-slapping Mnuchin had gone through – that the Fed would return those taxpayer funds to the Treasury. But given how small the actual amounts were in these SPVs, and given the magnitude of its QE binge – $3 trillion in three months – it is clear that letting these essentially unused facilities expire as planned isn’t going to matter to the real economy, though it might matter a little to the speculators and investors who got rich off the jawboning, but they had it so good for so long and they shouldn’t complain. But returning $455 billion to the Treasury and having Congress fashion new fiscal aid programs for Covid relief to small businesses and the unemployed would make a huge difference. Why do bondholders and speculators have to be coddled all the time to further increase the wealth disparity, instead of providing a modicum of fiscal relief to the unemployed and struggling small businesses? Powell didn’t even attempt to explain that.

The Untold Story of Mnuchin’s Demand for the Fed to Shut Down Emergency Lending Programs -- Pam Martens - Fourteen days before U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin released a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, demanding the return of taxpayers’ money and the end to specific Fed emergency programs by the end of the year, four Senate Democrats had written to Mnuchin and Powell asking them to extend those very same emergency programs. The Senate Democrats who authored the letter were Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Mark Warner of Virginia and Chuck Schumer of New York. The letter explained that “As of September, 3.8 million workers suffered permanent job losses, with 2.4 million considered long-term unemployed. Moreover, according to an analysis from Moody’s, without more federal support, another 3 million teachers, nurses, emergency responders, firefighters, and others from around the country will lose their jobs in the next two years.”The Senators outlined sensible plans for both extending and modifying the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program and the Municipal Liquidity Facility. Exactly two weeks later, on November 19, Mnuchin sent his own letter to Powell telling him to kill those exact programs by the end of the year, along with the Corporate Credit Facilities and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). See the full text of the letter here.The four programs directed at helping Wall Street were the only programs that Mnuchin instructed the Fed to keep alive past December 31, 2020. Those programs are the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, which sluiced tens of billions of dollars to the trading houses on Wall Street that are owned by the big Wall Street banks; the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; and the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, which reimburses certain banks for loans they had provided under the Small Business Administration’s PPP program. Citigroup, the recipient of the largest bailout in history during the 2007 to 2010 financial crisis, has inexplicably received over $3 billion from that Fed program this year. (SeeCitigroup Has Made a Sap of the Fed: It’s Borrowing at 0.35 % from the Fed While Charging Struggling Consumers 27.4 % on Credit Cards.) The Fed has made transaction level data available for all of its lending programs exceptthree of the four that Mnuchin wants to keep alive. The Fed has not made one scintilla of information available about the names of the borrowers or the dollar amount loaned to specific borrowers under the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility.

75% of the $454 Billion CARES Act Money Never Went to the Fed; It Was Invested by a Mnuchin Slush Fund Called the ESF - Pam Martens  - The CARES Act was signed into law on March 27. Congress earmarked $454 billion of that stimulus money to be distributed by the Treasury to the Federal Reserve to be used for emergency lending programs to save businesses and jobs during the pandemic and keep credit flowing to the U.S. economy. The catch was that the Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, would have to give his approval for each of the programs.  Since June, Wall Street On Parade has been reportingthat $340 billion of the $454 billion that Mnuchin was instructed to turn over to the Fed was unaccounted for. We noted that 98,000 businesses had permanently closed in the U.S. while this money, intended for economic relief, went missing. On November 19, Mnuchin publicly issued a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, making it sound like most of the CARES Act money has been sitting idle at the Fed and Mnuchin was demanding it back to put to better use.Adding to our conviction that Mnuchin was intentionally misleading the public, Bloomberg News published an article on Tuesday about the funds that Mnuchin planned to claw back from the Fed. The Bloomberg article carried this sentence: “The money in question includes $429 billion that Mnuchin is clawing back from the Fed — which backed some of the central bank’s emergency lending facilities…” But for months now, the Federal Reserve’s weekly financial statements known as the H.4.1 have indicated that all the Fed received from Treasury for its emergency lending facilities was $114 billion, leaving $340 billion unaccounted for. Wall Street On Parade has repeatedly asked the press office of the U.S. Treasury to explain this discrepancy. It has refused to answer our inquiries. We have repeatedly asked the Fed’s press office to explain this discrepancy and it has directed us to its official financial statements which show it has received just $114 billion from the Treasury for its emergency lending programs. This morning, we located the missing funds on our own with no help from the Treasury’s press office that is paid by American taxpayers to keep the public informed. Tens of billions of dollars of CARES Act money has been put to very strange use by Mnuchin in a slush fund called the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) which states that it gives the U.S. Treasury Secretary “considerable discretion in the use of ESF resources.”We located the financial statements for the Exchange Stabilization Fund and they confirmed that all the Treasury has given the Fed for its emergency lending facilities was the same $114 billion that the Fed has been reporting on its financial statements.We compared the Exchange Stabilization Fund’s most recent financial statement for September 30, 2020 to its fiscal year-end financial statement for September 30, 2019. At the end of 2019, the ESF had assets of $93.3 billion. With the money from the CARES Act, that amount had grown to $682 billion by September 30, 2020. Here are some of the peculiar line items that show how Mnuchin allocated money meant to save businesses in the U.S. during the pandemic and avoid millions of unnecessary job losses in the United States:

FOMC Minutes: "Concerned about the possibility of a further resurgence of the virus that could undermine the recovery" -- From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 4-5, 2020. A few excerpts: Participants continued to see the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook as quite elevated, with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus; on how individuals, businesses, and public officials responded to it; and on the effectiveness of public health measures to address it. Participants cited several downside risks that could threaten the recovery. While another broad economic shutdown was seen as unlikely, participants remainedconcerned about the possibility of a further resurgence of the virus that could undermine the recovery. The majority of participants also saw the risk that current and expected fiscal support for households, businesses, and state and local governments might not be sufficient to sustain activity levels in those sectors, while a few participants noted that additional fiscal stimulus that was larger than anticipated could be an upside risk. Some participants commented that the recent surge in virus cases in Europe and the reimposition of restrictions there could lead to a slowdown in economic activity in the euro area and have negative spillover effects on the U.S. recovery. Some participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including sectoral restructurings that could slow employment growth or an acceleration of technological disruptions that could be limiting the pricing power of some firms.

Yellen at Treasury could resuscitate Fed’s loan programs — President-elect Joe Biden’s selection of Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary increases the odds the government will double down on pandemic recovery efforts, which include lending programs that enable banks to provide credit to households and businesses. If confirmed, Yellen — a former head of the Federal Reserve — would inherit a shaky economy rattled by the coronavirus pandemic and growing division between Treasury and the Fed about how the recovery should proceed. After Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin essentially ordered the central bank to shut down credit backstops such as the Main Street Lending Program, many experts expect Yellen would work with Fed Chair Jerome Powell immediately to revive its emergency lending programs and would even try to convince Congress that those programs need more fiscal support. “Both Powell and Yellen believe that it's good to have a full toolbox, and that having those programs available is helpful even if you don't end up using them,” said Ian Katz, a director at Capital Alpha Partners. Mnuchin last week called on the Fed to let programs meant to limit the economic effect of COVID-19 expire at the end of the year and return unused funds appropriated by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act to backstop the facilities. After the Fed initially resisted, saying it preferred "that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role," Powell later relented and said in a letter to Mnuchin that the central bank would return the money. That means five programs, including the Main Street Lending Program and the Municipal Liquidity Facility, will shut down on Dec. 31. The $600 billion Main Street program provides banks financial backing to make loans to midsize firms meeting certain criteria that need pandemic relief. But the program has been criticized for a slow start and limited participation by banks and borrowers. Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, argued in a research note that replenishing the emergency lending programs will be one of Yellen’s top priorities once she is confirmed. “Yellen's first matter of business will be to not only provide additional COVID-relief funding but to reestablish additional, temporary [Exchange] Stabilization Fund support that Treasury can provide to backstop Federal Reserve funding programs,” he said.

Yellen Will Confront a Cooling Economic Recovery, Uncertain Stimulus Prospects – WSJ —Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee to be Treasury secretary, will confront an economic recovery that appears to be losing momentum and uncertain prospects for additional stimulus from Congress.If confirmed by the Senate, Ms. Yellen would play a key role pushing for more aid for an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic and related shutdowns, especially if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a relief package before Mr. Biden takes office on Jan. 20.The rebound that began over the summer is showing signs of faltering as new virus cases surge and job growth slows, and much of the aid lawmakers passed earlier this year has run out. JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists said last week they expect the economy to shrink in the first quarter of 2021.Ms. Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, will have to forge broad consensus on economic policy and sell ideas within the administration, on Capitol Hill and among the general public, said Tony Fratto, a Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration.“Right now, we live in a country where people look at the same set of facts and come to diametrically opposite conclusions, so that is a big challenge for anybody who takes that job, to build support for your policy outcomes,” he said.Congress came together swiftly in the early months of the pandemic to pass a series of emergency aid bills totaling $3.3 trillion, including one-time stimulus payments for households, enhanced jobless benefits, loans for small businesses and vaccine research.Lawmakers have since been split over how much more support the economy needs. Senate Republicans, concerned about record budget deficits, have proposed a $650 billion package aimed at hard-hit businesses, including restaurants and airlines. Democrats have pushed for a $2.2 trillion measure that includes aid for state and local governments, jobless workers and a national virus testing strategy. Ms. Yellen has said that pulling back on spending too abruptly could lead to a slow recovery, like the one that followed the 2007-09 recession. As long as interest rates and inflation are low, there is little downside to borrowing more to help return the economy to its pre-pandemic health, she has said.Ms. Yellen, 74, served as a Fed governor from 1994 to 1997 and did a stint as chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in the late 1990s. She was president of the San Francisco Fed from 2004 to 2010 and served as Fed vice chair from 2010 to 2014, alongside then-Chairman Ben Bernanke. President Obama picked her to lead the Fed from 2014 to 2018.  “There is no one with more experience to help pull the economy out of the ditch,” Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Finance Committee, said in a statement Monday.

Trump Is Trying to Set Yellen and Biden Up to Fail as He Sabotages the Economy -- Alexis Goldstein - News that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen — the first fed chair to acknowledge the problems caused by inequality — to serve as treasury secretary broke yesterday. During her time as chair of the Federal Reserve, Yellen was receptive to progressives who pushed the Fed to be more responsive to communities of color. As treasury secretary, Yellen will now have her work cut out for her, as both she and Biden are inheriting a messy situation made messier by Trump’s active attempts at sabotage.The long delay to the start of the formal transition is hardly the only way that the Trump administration is working furiously to sabotage the incoming administration. Trump officials are also making moves to make future diplomacy, economic recovery and climate change remediation more difficult. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has not acknowledged Joe Biden’s victory, spent the last week and a half creating diplomatic outrage across the world. In Paris, Pompeo met with reporters from the right-wing French magazine Valeurs Actuelles, which was criticized for its racism after it printed an image depicting a Black French lawmaker as a slave. Then, Pompeo became the most senior U.S. official to visit an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank. He traveled to a winery built on land claimed byPalestinians; the Israeli-owned winery had previously named a wineafter Pompeo. Most in the international community, including the United Nations, consider these settlements illegal under the Geneva Convention. But Pompeo announced that the U.S. will allow goods produced in Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory to use a “Made in Israel” label. Pompeo also visited the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria. Syria condemned the visit, calling it “provocative” and a “flagrant violation” of Syrian sovereignty.Stephen Miles, executive director of Win Without War, describedPompeo’s 10-day tour as a way to actively sabotage Joe Biden. Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Bloomberg that Pompeo was spending the remainder of his time in office “trolling the world.”It’s not just diplomatic problems the outgoing Trump administration is causing; it appears to be attempting to create economic ones as well. Last week, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he would shut downmost of the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs — including the program meant to lend to municipalities — and return any unused money. Since the Fed has only used about $25 billion, that totals some $429 billion. This means the likely end to future loans the Fed could have made to municipalities and medium-sized businesses in order to help aid the economic recovery. It’s worth noting, though, that the CARES Act only demands that any unused funds be sent back to the Treasury’s general fund — to be used for deficit reduction — in 2026. This means Yellen could, in coordination with the Fed, potentially restart the programs in the next administration.

Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth increased in October" -- "Index suggests economic growth increased in October." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.83 in October from +0.32 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in October, and three of the four categories increased from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.75 in October from +1.37 in September. [Download report] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.

Q3 GDP Growth Unchanged at 33.1% Annual Rate -- From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1 percent. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised down slightly to 40.6% from 40.7%. Residential investment was revised up from 59.3% to 62.3%. This was at the consensus forecast.

Q3 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 33.1%, Record High - The Second Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 33.1% (33.08% to two decimal places), a record increase from -31.4% (-31.38% to two decimal places) for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 33.2%.  Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:  Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.  The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1 percent. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up (see "Updates to GDP"). The increase in third quarter GDP reflected continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.01%. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 17.7% below trend. A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.27%. All twelve recessions over this timeframe have begun at a higher level of current real YoY GDP.

Unchanged from early estimate, US economy grew 33.1% in Q3 --The second of three estimates on U.S. growth for the July-September quarter was unchanged at a record pace of 33.1%. But a resurgence in the coronavirus is expected to slow growth sharply in the current quarter with some economists even raising the specter of a double-dip recession. While the overall increase in the country’s total output of goods and services was static, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, some components were revised. Bigger gains in business investment, housing and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, business inventories and consumer spending. The 33.1% gain was the largest quarterly gain on records going back to 1947 and surpassed the old mark of a 16.7% surge in 1950. Still, the economy has not fully recovered from output lost in the first six months of the year when GDP suffered a record-shattering drop of 31.4% in the second quarter. That followed a slide at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter as when the pandemic shut down much of the economy and triggered millions of layoffs. Economists are concerned that growth has slowed sharply in the current October-December and there are fears that GDP could dip back into negative territory in the first three months of next year. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he had forecast GDP growth of around 2% in the fourth quarter, with the real possibility of GDP turning negative in the first quarter of next year. Economists at JPMorgan Chase have trimmed their forecast for the first quarter to a negative 1% GDP rate. “This winter will be grim and we believe the economy will contract again in the first quarter,” the JPMorgan economists wrote in a research note. “The economy is going to be very uncomfortable between now and when we get the next fiscal rescue package,” Zandi said. “If lawmakers can’t get it together, it will be very difficult for the economy to avoid going back into a recession.” While lawmakers have returned for a lame-duck session, there has been no progress so far in narrowing the differences between Democrats who are pushing for a big package of $1 trillion or more, and Senate Republicans who are refusing to approve anything above approximately $500 billion. More than 9 million people will lose their unemployment benefits at the end of the year when two jobless benefit programs are set to expire unless Congress extends them. At the same time virus cases are surging, triggering a number of states to re-impose business limits such as earlier closing times for bars and restaurants and stricter limits on the number of in-store shoppers.#160;

Business Cycle Indicators as of November 25th -- Menzie Chinn - With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:  Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 11/25 (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (11/2 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.The picture is consistent with growth at a greatly decelerated rate. The Bloomberg consensus for November employment growth rate is 4.4% (annualized, log terms), compared to the actually recorded October rate of 5.4% (annualized). I don’t think this incorporates the latest information regarding unemployment claims. In addition, some high frequency indicators (Tedeschi) suggest a negative growth rate for November. If there is an incipient downturn at year’s end, it hasn’t shown up in the conventional indicators. Personally, give the Covid-19 surge, administration and legislative branch obstructionism (if not scorched earth sabotage), I am a bit pessimistic.

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Some Upward Revisions - From Merrill Lynch:  4Q GDP tracking jumped to 6.0% qoq saar as strong consumer, capex, housing and inventories data in October kicked the quarter off to a solid start. [Nov 25 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2020:Q4. News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast by 0.1 percentage point. [Nov 27 estimate]   And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.0 percent on November 25, up from 5.6 percent on November 18. [Nov 25 estimate]

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -  These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.    The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).  The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.  This data is as of Nov 22nd.  The seven day average is down 60% from last year (40% of last year).  There has been a slow increase from the bottom, and appears to have increased for the Thanksgiving week holiday.  The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through November 21, 2020.  Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - and only down slightly in the southern states. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 19th. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $13 million last week (compared to usually around $250 million per week during the Thanksgiving blockbuster period). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020).This data is through November 14th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 32.7% year-over-year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of .  At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of November 13th, gasoline supplied was off about 10.2% YoY (about 89.8% of last year).  This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities."   There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index.  This data is through November 21st for the United States and several selected cities.According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 50% of the January level. It is at 36% in Chicago, and 54% in Houston - and declining recently.Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.  This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data for this year.This data is through Friday, November 20th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

 Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25 -  Menzie Chinn - Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below  alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).  Figure 1:  Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC  11/25/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 11/25 accessed 11/25/2020 and author’s calculations.  Upward revision of excess deaths (calculated as actual minus expected) going from 11/11 vintage to 11/25 vintage for the week ending 10/24 is about 5700 (that’s a 7 day total) My experience with these series is that the CDC excess count series moves upward toward a line parallel to, and shifted upward from, the Our World in Data series (see this post). In other words, excess fatalities are likely rising (I say likely, because these are statistical estimates, not administrative counts; note I calculate excess fatalities as actual minus expected allowing for negative counts, while CDC bounds below at zero). So, whatever you think of the trend in the commonly reported (administratively designated) fatality series, the truth is likely worse. As hospitalization rates and fatality rates climb — also I think likely in the wake of the Thanksgiving holidays — I expect further decreases relative to usual levels of contact-intensive services spending. The increasing frequency of news reports  (e.g., NYT) about a further deceleration in Q1 — perhaps even negative — reflects the enormity of the surge and the diminishing hopes for a large and imminent fiscal recovery package. The news reports reflect in turn the increasing short term pessimism for growth from investment bank reports. The unemployment claims increase for the last week merely reinforces the negative short term view.

Midwestern Governors Seek More Federal Covid-19 Aid for Businesses – WSJ - A growing number of governors are calling for another round of coronavirus-relief legislation from Washington, saying they are unable to provide additional funds to small businesses amid budget shortfalls. The issue is gaining urgency as money from federal relief passed earlier this year runs out ahead of a year-end deadline to spend it. States have funneled hundreds of millions of dollars in federal aid into everything from personal-protective equipment and hazard pay for front-line health-care workers to schools and food banks. Businesses, which generally got a smaller slice of the aid than programs directly tied to the public-health emergency, are in a particularly precarious spot. In addition, federal loans to businesses during the shutdown earlier this year—known as the Paycheck Protection Program—have since run out. The crunch is tough in the Midwest, where some of the nation’s strongest coronavirus restrictions have been implemented amid increases in Covid-19 cases, hitting businesses just ahead of the holiday season. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said that the state had used up all of its federal stimulus funding from the spring and now faces a $1 billion shortfall. She recently banned indoor dining for three weeks and shut businesses like movie theaters and bowling alleys. “Our resources are strapped, just like every state in the nation,” Ms. Whitmer, a Democrat, said earlier this month. “And that’s why this stimulus is so important.” Rich Studley, president and CEO of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, has criticized Ms. Whitmer’s shutdown orders as causing unnecessary economic damage. The latest round will cause many businesses to close permanently, he said. Yet he favors a new round of federal relief targeted to help businesses and unemployed workers. A priority, he said, should be funding state unemployment insurance trust funds that have been depleted. That would help laid-off workers and also prevent states from raising payroll taxes on businesses, which could deter them from rehiring people. “Simply dropping money out of airplanes and hoping politicians will spend it wisely is not a very good strategy,” he said.

Fossil Fuel Industry Feasted on COVID-19 Relief Programs, Report Reveals - - A report published Monday reveals the Trumpadministration has given fossil fuel companies as much as $15.2 billion in direct relief — and tens of billions more indirectly — through federal COVID-19 recovery programs since March. The report by BailoutWatch, Public Citizen, and Friends of the Earth — titled Bailed Out and Propped Up —tracks taxpayer funds flowing to fossil fuel companies since pandemic-related bailouts began. It found a total of $110 billion in direct and indirect benefits went to 66 companies, including between $10.4 and $15.2 billion in direct disbursements to coal, oil, and gas companies that are largely responsible for the worsening climate emergency.Here's a breakdown, according to the report:

• At least $5.5 billion went to 70 money-losing polluters via the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.
• $582 million in direct, subsidized loans were approved for 37 mid-sized fossil fuel and related companies through the Federal Reserve's Main Street Lending Program.
• $4.3 to $9.1 billion in forgivable loans went to at least 25,931 companies through the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program.
• At least 229 oil and gas companies received waivers for fees normally paid to drill on public land — giveaways that cost the government a minimum of $4.5 million in lost revenue, and likely far more.

The report found that five fossil fuel companies — Diamondback Energy, EOG Resources, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero — received more than 10% of the $110 billion in direct benefits, including tax refunds, and indirect support through the issuance of bonds, even if they were losing money. Reassured by the Fed's actions, private investors purchased more fossil fuel bonds, generating some $100 billion in additional indirect benefits.   "When the pandemic hit last spring, Trump's corporate cronies made sure the fossil fuel industry was able to squeeze whatever favors they could out of the resulting economic rescues," wrote Alan Zibel, research director of Public Citizen's Corporate Presidency Project and a co-author of the report. "By artificially delaying the industry's inevitable decline at taxpayers' expense, the government has made it that much harder to make the necessary transition to clean energy sources,"

PPP Borrowers Are Asked to Justify Need for Loans Over $2 Million – WSJ -The Small Business Administration has begun asking some Paycheck Protection Program borrowers to document why they needed the loans, drawing concern from advocacy and trade groups that say such disclosures weren’t required when the businesses applied for aid. The Loan Necessity questionnaire is aimed at borrowers that took loans of $2 million or more under PPP, the federal government’s main coronavirus-aid initiative for small businesses. It directs them to answer questions about business activity and liquidity. The form says the questions will help the SBA evaluate a certification borrowers made when they applied for aid. The certification stated that economic uncertainty made the loan request necessary to support business operations. But the loan application didn’t specify what the SBA meant by “economic uncertainty” or how borrowers would demonstrate their need, according to Mike Kennedy, general counsel at the Associated General Contractors of America, a trade group. Mr. Kennedy said the questionnaire “essentially moves the goal post.” For example, it asks borrowers whether they have been subject to a government-mandated, coronavirus-related shutdown and how much cash they had on hand before taking the loans, questions that weren’t part of the original application. “The loan necessity review only applies to a limited number of loans, and it is necessary given that American taxpayers are providing billions of dollars in forgivable loans to these borrowers,” said SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza. “Using this questionnaire helps ensure that the SBA is maintaining program integrity and ensuring the program works as intended.” AGC of America, along with more than six dozen other trade and advocacy groups, sent a letter this week to congressional leaders, Ms. Carranza and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The questionnaires “introduce a confusing and burdensome process for both borrowers and lenders, and we fear that it could lead the agencies to inappropriately question thousands of qualified PPP loans made to struggling small businesses,” the letters said.

Biden aides dispute push for quicker, pared-down relief deal --President-elect Joe Biden's transition team on Monday pushed back on a report that he would favor a quicker economic relief deal, even if it meant ceding ground on some Democratic demands."This is incorrect. The President-elect fully supports the Speaker and Leader in their negotiations," transition spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement.The New York Times reported Sunday that Biden's advisers were pushing Democratic leaders to broker a quick stimulus deal with Senate Republicans to avoid further strain on the economy as the U.S. faces a worsening coronavirus pandemic.The country is regularly reporting more than 100,000 daily infections and a steady increase in hospitalizations, and public health experts have warned the situation may further deteriorate in the winter as Americans are largely confined indoors where the virus can spread more easily. Congressional Democrats have for months held out for a large, broad stimulus bill. House Democrats passed a $3 trillion version of the HEROES Act in May and passed a $2.2 trillion, slimmed-down version of the package in October. Both versions include money for state and local governments, enhanced unemployment benefits, and a second round of stimulus payments. That package has gone nowhere in the Senate, however, where the GOP proposed a $500 billion deal that contained more targeted relief. Biden has been publicly supportive of the Democrats' bill, and the statement from his team reflects an effort to maintain a unified front. The president-elect last week urged Congress to pass a coronavirus relief package "like the HEROES Act."

To Save the Economy, Biden Must First Save Lives - -- Recently I wrote: Thanks to partisan politics, neoliberal Democrats & libertarian Republicans, the whole country has to choose between: • Staying open to survive economically • Shutting down to survive biologicallyThat was always a false choice driven by putting austerity economics (“mustn’t give too much to the undeserving”) ahead of people’s health and well-being.One could do both, preserve the economy and preserve people’s health, but only by mandating virus control first, then compensating people for the cost. The government could always ensure people’s biologic survival with enforced mask-wearing and lockdowns, plus free treatment and other measures, and also ensure their economic survival with direct public spending that puts money in the pockets of workers it orders not to work.The problem is that the neoliberals who run the Democratic Party and the libertarians who control much of Republican decision-making have combined to offer the nation an impossible choice — “Your livelihood or your life. You can only save one.”  In reality, the choice isn’t saving one or the other — it’s saving both or neither. And choosing both starts with saving lives. A new report published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking has taken a data-driven approach to solving the nation’s Covid problem, and it finds that all of the above is true. The data shows that it’s impossible to preserve lives if a country puts the economy first. It’s also impossible to preserve the economy if it puts the economy first. The only way to preserve the economy is to saves lives first. Here’s part of the report. The first point to consider is that lockdowns do work:With over ten months of data from dozens of coronavirus hotspots around the world, statements proclaiming the futility of lockdowns are now provably false. Strict lockdowns do work, and they work swiftly, within 4-6 weeks. They worked not only to suppress, but to virtually eliminate the virus in Australia, New Zealand, and Iceland, as well as in China, Korea, and Taiwan. Figure 1 below tells the story in one picture of new COVID-19 case counts by country. [emphasis added] The second point is this: The data shows that attempting to save the economy loses the race to control the virus and further endangers the economy. Limiting economic damage caused by the pandemic starts and ends with controlling the spread of the virus. Dozens of experiments conducted in different countries across the world definitively show that no country can prevent the economic damage without first addressing the pandemic that causes it. The countries that swiftly focused first on pandemic abatement measures are now reopening in stages and growing their economies. Most of the countries that prioritized bolstering their economies and resisted, limited, or prematurely curtailed interventions to control the pandemic are now facing runaway rates of infection and imminent state and national lockdowns.

Biden's transition team to begin meeting with federal officials - executive director (Reuters) - President-elect Joe Biden’s team will begin meeting with federal government officials to discuss the pandemic response, national security and other issues after a U.S. agency gave the go-ahead for the formal transition on Monday, a transition official said. “In the days ahead, transition officials will begin meeting with federal officials to discuss the pandemic response, have a full accounting of our national security interests, and gain complete understanding of the Trump administration’s efforts to hollow out government agencies,” Biden transition executive director Yohannes Abraham said in a statement.

Biden picks Obama communications director to lead confirmation team: report - President-elect Joe Biden has enlisted former White House communications director Jen Psaki to spearhead Senate confirmation battles, Politico reported Wednesday.Control of the Senate will come down to two January runoffs in Georgia, with Democrats achieving a 50-50 split in a best-case scenario. As a result, the new Biden administration may face a series of battles as Biden names his Cabinet.Reema Dodin, who serves as floor director for Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), will serve in a similar capacity on legislative fights, according to Politico.The Biden team is set to expand its war room in the next week, adding a combination of campaign staffers and Capitol Hill volunteers.The team is also reportedly considering mounting public relations offensives for Cabinet nominees, introducing them to America at large ahead of Senate hearings to increase their public support.Biden has touted his capacity to work across the aisle and bargain with Republicans, but publicly opposing his nominations will also likely be an early audition for GOP 2024 hopefuls in the chamber, Politico notes. Psaki, who currently works as a senior transition adviser to Biden, has repeatedly sounded the alarm about the Trump administration's refusal to allow access to materials relating to national security and the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden to name longtime aide Blinken as secretary of State: report - President-elect Joe Biden's longtime aide Antony Blinken will be his nominee to lead the State Department, Bloomberg News reported Sunday. Blinken, who served as deputy secretary of State between 2015 and 2017, has also served the former vice president as an adviser for years and in 2008 worked on Biden's bid for the Democratic nomination, which he eventually lost to former President Obama. The Biden campaign declined to comment to Bloomberg. The president-elect is expected to announce his initial round of Cabinet picks in the coming days. "You're going to see the first of the president's cabinet appointments on Tuesday of this week, meeting the pace of — beating in fact — the pace that was set by the Obama-Biden transition, beating the pace set by the Trump transition. So you're gonna see the first cabinet picks this Tuesday," said Ron Klain, Biden's chief of staff, on Sunday during an interview with ABC. Bloomberg also reported Sunday that Jake Sullivan, an aide to Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid, is Biden's top pick for national security adviser. Sullivan previously served as Biden's national security adviser during the Obama administration. The president-elect's Cabinet picks come as his opponent, President Trump, has so far refused to concede the 2020 election despite his legal challenges in a handful of key battleground states failing to gain any traction thus far.

Biden Picks Clinton And Obama Advisers For Top Positions --Despite the fact that President Donald Trump has refused to concede the 2020 race, Joe Biden has decided to go ahead and start planning and announcing who will be in his administration. Many of the names are familiar Washington insiders with close ties to the Clintons and the Obama administration.According to a report in Bloomberg this week, Biden plans to name his longtime adviser Antony Blinken as secretary of state.From 2009 to 2013, Blinken served as Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Advisor to the Vice President. From 2002 to 2008, he served as the Democratic Staff Director for the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.During the Clinton Administration, Blinken served in the State Department and in senior positions on the National Security Council staff. Blinken is also a global affairs analyst for CNNJake Sullivan who was one of Hillary Clinton’s closest aides, and implicated in her email scandal, is likely to be named Biden’s national security adviser. Linda Thomas-Greenfield is expected to be nominated to serve as Biden’s ambassador to the United Nations.Thomas-Greenfield worked as a career foreign service officer, and served as assistant secretary of state for African affairs in the Obama administration.She was one of the officials who were fired in a purge of senior State Department officials that happened  when Trump took office. She is currently a senior counselor at Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington.

Blinken Nominated for Secretary of State —President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Antony Blinken to serve as secretary of state, turning to a trusted diplomat and foreign-policy adviser to oversee his work to rebuild U.S. relationships around the globe, according to people familiar with the decision. The former vice president is also expected to nominate diplomat Linda Thomas-Greenfield to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and to select Jake Sullivan, a State Department veteran, to serve as national security adviser, the people said. Mr. Blinken served as Mr. Biden’s top foreign-policy adviser during his presidential campaign. He had roles as deputy secretary of state during President Obama’s second term and as national security adviser to Mr. Biden while he served as vice president under Mr. Obama. Ms. Thomas-Greenfield served as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs from 2013 to 2017. Before that she was U.S. ambassador to Liberia from 2008 to 2012 and held diplomatic postings in several other countries. She is currently on leave from the Albright Stonebridge Group, where she led the consulting firm’s Africa practice.Ms. Thomas-Greenfield, who is Black, could be the first nominee of color by Mr. Biden, who has vowed to put together an administration that reflects the nation’s diversity. Mr. Sullivan, a former national security adviser to Mr. Biden while he served as vice president, was a senior policy adviser to Mr. Biden’s campaign and served in senior roles to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As director of policy planning at the State Department, he played a key role in negotiating with Iranian officials as the Obama administration sought to put together the Iran nuclear agreement. Mr. Blinken’s ties to Mr. Biden date back nearly two decades, beginning when he served as staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee while Mr. Biden served as a U.S. senator representing Delaware. Mr. Blinken also worked on Mr. Biden’s 2008 presidential campaign. Mr. Blinken, who is 58 years old, has made clear that dealing with the coronavirus pandemic will be the first priority for the Biden administration. “There is an urgent leadership requirement internationally with regard to Covid-19,” Mr. Blinken said in a recent interview. “The first thing we have to deal with, domestically as well as internationally, is working to get out from under the Covid[-19] rock.”Like his boss, Mr. Blinken is a centrist on foreign policy who has been chastened by the difficulties the U.S. military encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan but still sees a role for U.S. military power.

Biden Makes National Security Picks —President-elect Joe Biden rolled out a national security team steeped in government experience on Monday, announcing his intent to nominate the first woman to oversee the country’s intelligence community and the first Latino to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Mr. Biden’s transition team said in a statement revealing the president-elect’s first cabinet selections that he would nominate Alejandro Mayorkas, a Cuban-American and former deputy DHS secretary, to lead the department. Avril Haines, who was deputy national security adviser to President Barack Obama, will be nominated as director of national intelligence.Former Secretary of State John Kerry will serve as special presidential envoy for climate change, a position on the White House National Security Council, the transition team said. Mr. Biden’s team also said Monday that he would nominate Antony Blinken, his longtime foreign-policy adviser, to serve as secretary of state, and he had chosen Jake Sullivan, another longtime aide, for the role of national security adviser. The former vice president, who has stressed the importance of diversity in his appointments, tapped Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who is Black and a veteran diplomat, to serve as his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. “These individuals are equally as experienced and crisis-tested as they are innovative and imaginative,” Mr. Biden said in the statement. “Their accomplishments in diplomacy are unmatched, but they also reflect the idea that we cannot meet the profound challenges of this new moment with old thinking and unchanged habits—or without diversity of background and perspective.” He also plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen as the next Treasury secretary, according to people familiar with the decision. If confirmed, she would be the first woman to hold the position. His transition team said Mr. Biden would name members of his economic team early next week. Mr. Biden’s early moves reflect his attempt to bring government experience and personal chemistry to his incoming administration. On Monday, the head of General Services Administration said she would provide his team with needed federal resources, after an unusual delay in making a formal determination that would have allowed the transition to fully move ahead. Mr. Trump, who hasn’t conceded the election, tweeted that his “case STRONGLY continues” but said he had told his team to “do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols.”

Biden names national-security team of right-wing militarists - President-elect Joe Biden sent a clear message to the world and to the American people with the first announcement of the top appointees to his cabinet and White House staff: the number one priority of the incoming Democratic administration is to build a US-led front of imperialist powers in preparation for stepped up military pressure and outright war on Russia and China.All six of the appointments announced Monday in press releases—the nominees themselves will be introduced to the public later today—are in the sphere of foreign policy and national security. All are veterans of the Obama-Biden administration, and many were confirmed in those earlier positions by a Republican-controlled Senate led by Mitch McConnell, demonstrating that Biden intends to form a government entirely acceptable to the Republican right.  The six officials named Monday include:

• Antony Blinken, secretary of state: Blinken is a long-time Biden national security aide in both the US Senate and during Biden’s vice presidency, and he was deputy secretary of state in 2015-2016.
• Jake Sullivan, national security adviser: Sullivan succeeded Blinken as national security adviser to Vice President Biden, as well as serving as chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
• Avril Haines, director of national intelligence: Haines was on Biden’s staff at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, then on the Obama-Biden National Security Council before serving two years as deputy director of the CIA in 2015-2016.
• Alexander Mayorkas, secretary of homeland security: a Cuban-born son of immigrants, Mayorkas is a career domestic security official who was deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the Obama administration, which deported more immigrants than any previous government.
• inda Thomas-Greenfield, ambassador to the United Nations: the highest ranking African American in the career foreign service, Thomas-Greenfield was named ambassador to Liberia by George W. Bush, then State Department personnel chief under Obama and later assistant secretary for African Affairs. She was forced out by Trump in 2017 and became a counselor with the Albright-Stonebridge Group, a foreign policy think tank for Democrats headed by former Secretary of State Madeline Albright.
• John Kerry, special presidential envoy for climate: the former senator, presidential candidate and secretary of state, now 76, co-chaired Biden’s climate change task force along with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He will head a US effort to rejoin the Paris climate accord.

The first and most obvious fact about all six nominees is that they are dedicated defenders of American imperialism and the interests of Wall Street. Several are multi-millionaires, while all are comfortably within the top tier financially. Blinken, for example, is the son of a founder of Warburg Pincus investment bank, Donald Blinken, who was for 12 years chairman of the board of the State University of New York.

Joe Biden- Return Of The CFR  - A Joe Biden presidency means a “return to normality” simply because it means a return of the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). In 2008, Barack Obama received the names of his entire future cabinet already one month prior to his election by CFR Senior Fellow (and Citigroup banker) Michael Froman, as a Wikileaks email later revealed. Consequently, the key posts in Obama’s cabinet were filled almost exclusively by CFR members, as was the case in most cabinets since World War II. To be sure, Obama’s 2008 Republican opponent, the late John McCain, was a CFR member, too. Michael Froman later negotiated the TPP and TTIP international trade agreements, before returning to the CFR as a Distinguished Fellow.In 2017, CFR nightmare President Donald Trump immediately canceled these trade agreements – because he viewed them as detrimental to US domestic industry – and other CFR achievements, like the multinational Iran nuclear deal and the UN climate and migration agreements, and he tried, but largely failed, to withdraw US troops from East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa, thus seriously endangering the global US empire built over decades by the CFR and its 5000 elite members. Unsurprisingly, most of the US media, whose owners and editors are themselves members of the CFR, didn’t like President Trump. This was also true for most of the European media, whose owners and editors are members of international CFR affiliates like the Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission, founded by CFR directors after the conquest of Europe during World War II. Moreover, it was none other than the CFR which in 1996 advocated a closer cooperation between the CIA and the media, i.e. a restart of the famous CIA Operation Mockingbird. Historically, OSS and CIA directors since William Donovan and Allen Dulles have always been CFR members.Joe Biden promised that he would form “the most diverse cabinet” in US history. This may be true in terms of skin color and gender, but almost all of his key future cabinet members have one thing in common: they are, indeed, members of the US Council on Foreign Relations.This is the case for Anthony Blinken (State), Alejandro Mayorkas (Homeland Security), Janet Yellen (Treasury), Michele Flournoy and Jeh Johnson (candidates for Defense), Linda Thomas-Greenfield (Ambassador to the UN), Richard Stengel (US Agency for Global Media; Stengel famously called propaganda “a good thing” at a 2018 CFR session), John Kerry (Special Envoy for Climate), Nelson Cunningham (candidate for Trade), and Thomas Donilon (candidate for CIA Director).Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, is not (yet) a CFR member, but Sullivan has been a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (a think tank “promoting active international engagement by the United States”) and a member of the US German Marshall Fund’s “Alliance For Securing Democracy” (a major promoter of the “Russiagate” disinformation campaign to restrain the Trump presidency), both of which are run by senior CFR members.Most of Biden’s CFR-vetted nominees supported recent US wars against Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen as well as the 2014 regime change in Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, neoconservative Max Boot, the CFR Senior Fellow in National Security Studies and one of the most vocal opponents of the Trump administration, has called Biden’s future cabinet “America’s A-Team”.

The secretive consulting firm that’s become Biden’s Cabinet in waiting – - The website for WestExec Advisors includes a map depicting West Executive Avenue, the secure road on the White House grounds between the West Wing and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, as a way to show what the consulting firm can do for its clients.  The firm, which now looks like a government-in-waiting for the next administration, was founded in 2017 by Tony Blinken, President-elect Joe Biden’s choice for secretary of State, and Michèle Flournoy, a top contender for secretary of Defense. And one of its former principals, Avril Haines, is Biden’s pick for director of national intelligence. But little is known about WestExec’s client list. Because its staffers aren’t lobbyists, they are not required to disclose who they work for. They also aren’t bound by the Biden transition’s restrictions on hiring people who have lobbied in the past year.  Such high-powered Washington consulting firms are “the unintended consequence” of greater disclosure requirements for registered lobbyists, said Mandy Smithberger, director of the Center for Defense Information at the Project on Government Oversight.  By not directly advocating for federal dollars on behalf of their clients, they don't have to publicly divulge who is paying them and for what activities, such as the connections they make with government agencies, she said. But it is also impossible to assess the influence they have on federal expenditures. “They avoid becoming registered lobbyists or foreign agents and are instead becoming strategic consultants,” she said.  WestExec is loaded with other former top Democratic national security and foreign policy officials who raised money for the Biden campaign, have joined his transition team, or have served as unofficial advisers.  Five WestExec staffers — all veterans of the Obama administration — are on leave from the firm to help staff Biden’s review teams for the Pentagon, the Treasury Department, the Council of Economic Advisers and other agencies, which are charged with coordinating the transfer of power between outgoing Trump officials and Biden’s appointees.  Two other WestExec principals were among those who briefed Biden last week on national security: Bob Work, who served as deputy secretary of defense in the Obama administration and was asked to remain on for the first few months of the Trump administration, and David Cohen, a former deputy director of both the CIA and the Treasury Department who is also in the running for a top post.Meanwhile, Jen Psaki, a former White House communications director under President Barack Obama who went on to work for WestExec, is now advising Biden’s transition team. And two other former WestExec hands, Lisa Monaco and Julianne Smith, are considered potential Biden administration hires.

Donald Trump Is First President Since Jimmy Carter Not to Enter U.S. Troops Into New Conflict - Ahead of a hastier than expected drawdown of U.S. troops in the Middle East before he leaves office, Donald Trump's military record stands apart from other modern American presidents. Only days after being appointed acting defense secretary, Christopher Miller announced the U.S. would reduce its troop numbers to 2,500 in both Afghanistan and Iraq by January 15. This was followed by national security adviser Robert O'Brien saying how Trump wanted "to put a stop to America's endless wars." While such a rapid withdrawal has sparked concern among Senate Republicans, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who said it would be a "mistake," such a move could be a fitting end to the tenure of a president whose perceived belligerence has not extended to the battlefield. Formal declarations of war that confer additional presidential powers are rare and have happened only five times in U.S. history, the most recent being the Second World War. The others are the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War, the Spanish-American War, and of course, World War One. Most conflicts the U.S. gets involved in fall under the guise of "authorizations of military force" given from Congress to the president. Congress authorizations were given to President George W. Bush in 2001 for the War on Terror and the Iraq War in 2003 and for his father, George H.W. Bush in 1991 for the Gulf War.

 Top scientist assassinated as Israel and US stage war provocations against Iran -- The brutal assassination Friday of top Iranian nuclear physicist Moshen Fakhrizadeh marks a major escalation of the US-Israeli campaign to provoke a war with Iran in the less than two months before the scheduled end of Donald Trump’s presidency. The Iranian scientist was ambushed by a team of assassins Friday morning in Absard, an eastern suburb of Tehran. His vehicle was attacked with automatic weapons fire, and then a pickup truck loaded with lumber covering explosives blew up next to the scientist’s car. Photographs of the scene posted online showed the damaged vehicle surrounded by shattered glass, bits of wood, car parts and a puddle of blood. Three to four of the terrorists were reported killed in the incident. Fakhrizadeh and his wounded bodyguards were rushed to a nearby hospital, but doctors were unable to revive him. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif confirmed the killing, writing on Twitter: “Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today. This cowardice—with serious indications of Israeli role—shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators. Iran calls on the international community—and especially EU to end their shameful double standards & condemn this act of state terror.” While officials in Israel and the US refused to comment on the assassination, the response in both countries left little to the imagination as to the authorship of this extraordinary act of international lawlessness. Trump triumphantly retweeted a comment by an Israeli journalist that the murder represented “a major psychological and professional blow for Iran.” Israel’s Jerusalem Post, reflecting the views of the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, commented that the assassination was “a major signal that Israel and the United States will not give up on preventing the country from obtaining such weaponry. The message is clear: Remember, no nuclear scientist is safe.”The New York Times, meanwhile, reported that “One American official—along with two other intelligence officials—said that Israel was behind the attack on the scientist.” It added that “It was unclear how much the United States may have known about the operation in advance, but the two nations are the closest of allies and have long shared intelligence regarding Iran.”

'The Machines Did The Killing': Obama Awkwardly Defends Drone Kill List In New Memoir - Former President Barack Obama still can't shake his legacy as the "drone president" given he still holds the record for number of ordered covert assassination strikes via drones."There were ten times more air strikes in the covert war on terror during President Barack Obama’s presidency than under his predecessor, George W. Bush," one prior human rights study found. "Obama embraced the US drone program, overseeing more strikes in his first year than Bush carried out during his entire presidency. A total of 563 strikes, largely by drones, targeted Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen during Obama’s two terms, compared to 57 strikes under Bush," the study said.This infamously included not only the killing of Yemeni-American citizen Anwar al-Awlaki due to his suspected al-Qaeda links, but also his son, 16-year-old US citizen and Colorado native Abdulrahman Anwar al-Awlaki, by a drone airstrike ordered by Obama on October 14, 2011. The boy was not even suspected of a crime upon his death while he had been casually eating dinner with this friends at a cafe in Yemen. The Obama administration later claimed the teen's death was "collateral damage" and despite lawsuits related to the CIA operation, no US official has ever been held accountable for literally assassinating two US citizens without trial or so much as filing official charges.  In his new 768-page memoir out this month, A Promised Land, there's scant mention of the massively expanded secret drone 'targeted killing' program under his watch, however, when it does receive brief attention, it's merely in passing but is still filled with cringeworthy level of self-justification and rationalization:"...the machinery I commanded, more often had me killing them instead," he wrote.Clearly he and the editor (and his ghostwriters) took pains to twist the limits of grammar and bizarre sentence structure to create as much distance as possible between the former president and owning up to the killings. Here's the section in full from the book, where he actually attempts to present himself as the 'savior' of those victims he ordered killed:In places like Yemen and Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, the lives of millions of young men like those three dead Somalis (some of them boys, really, since the oldest pirate was believed to be nineteen) had been warped and stunted by desperation, ignorance, dreams of religious glory, the violence of their surroundings, or the schemes of older men. I wanted somehow to save them—send them to school, give them a trade, drain them of the hate that had been filling their heads. And yet the world they were a part of, and the machinery I commanded, more often had me killing them instead. Under Obama estimates of the number of victims that were a result of the White House's secretive "Kill List" often range from 300 to over 500 civilians killed, including over 60 children.

 ‘People are pissed’: Tensions rise amid scramble for Biden jobs –  In late 2008, during the transition from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, the most loyal denizens of the Obama campaign watched with deep trepidation as the Obama administration was staffed at the highest levels with the same Clintonites — including Hillary herself — they thought they had vanquished in the Democratic primaries the previous summer. It is still early in the Biden transition. There are thousands of jobs to fill. But a similar sense of dread is starting to bubble up from veterans of the Biden campaign, particularly those who were there with the president-elect from the Philadelphia announcement speech to the Wilmington victory speech. The target of their ire? The Obama establishment, which has eclipsed the Clinton name as shorthand for yesterday’s Democratic Party. “The Obama staffers are now cutting out the people who got Biden elected,” said a senior Biden official channeling the feelings of the old guard of the Biden campaign, who requested anonymity for the obvious reason. “None of these people found the courage to help the VP when he was running and now they are elevating their friends over the Biden people. It’s f----- up.” Another Biden adviser who worked on the campaign echoed the point. “It is a very valid criticism,” the adviser said. “A lot of people are living in uncertainty.”Biden’s two top national security advisers on the campaign will take over the two top national security jobs in the administration: Tony Blinken as secretary of State and Jake Sullivan as national security adviser. The campaign manager, Jen O'Malley Dillon, and one of the campaign co-chairs, Rep. Cedric Richmond, will have senior White House roles. The relatively uncontroversial nature of these picks has been by design. Internally, Biden officials have been instructed to emphasize to reporters how normal the picks are, how “these are tested leaders.” It’s seen as a success if the Biden staff and Cabinet announcements don’t make much news. But just below that elite level there is concern bordering on panic — depending on who you talk to — about the perceived lack of outreach to many campaign alumni. “There’s real doubt about whether they will be taken care of,” said the Biden adviser.

Biden Picks Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary – WSJ -- President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, an economist at the forefront of policy-making for three decades, to become the next Treasury secretary, according to people familiar with the decision.  If confirmed by the Senate, Ms. Yellen would become the first woman to hold the job. Mr. Biden’s selection positions the 74-year-old labor economist to lead his administration’s efforts to further the recovery from the destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns.  Ms. Yellen, who was the first woman to lead the Fed, would become the first person to have headed the Treasury, the central bank and the White House Council of Economic Advisers.  Separately, Mr. Biden’s transition team said he would nominate Alejandro Mayorkas to lead the Department of Homeland Security and Avril Haines as director of national intelligence. Both are former Obama administration aides.  Mr. Biden’s economic team is set to confront a challenging outlook, with millions of people still out of work and job growth slowing after a sharp bounceback when businesses reopened in May, June and July. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said last week they expect the U.S. economy to contract slightly in the first quarter of 2021 due to rising virus infections. While the Obama administration also faced a challenging landscape before taking office in January 2009, Democrats then enjoyed large House and Senate majorities that created far fewer political constraints to pursuing their preferred course of action—something Mr. Biden won’t have even if Democrats deny Republicans a Senate majority by winning two Georgia runoff elections in early January. Ms. Yellen has said recently the recovery will be uneven and lackluster if Congress doesn’t spend more to fight unemployment and keep small businesses afloat. “There is a huge amount of suffering out there. The economy needs the spending,” Ms. Yellen said in a Sept. 28 interview. She is viewed by Biden transition officials as a credible authority on the dangers of prematurely withdrawing government stimulus and as someone who could collaborate closely with the Fed and executive-branch agencies to engineer more support if Congress is reluctant to take additional action. Ms. Yellen is an “excellent choice for Treasury secretary,” said Gary Cohn, President Trump’s former top economic adviser, in a statement. “Having had the opportunity to work with then-Chair Yellen, I have no doubt she will be the steady hand we need to promote an economy that works for everyone, especially during these difficult times.” Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.), a member of the Senate Finance Committee, said Monday night he looked forward to considering her nomination. “While Dr. Yellen and I had our fair share of disagreements during her tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve, I have no doubts about her integrity or technical expertise,” he said.

 The Wall Street Journal Nominates Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary -- Pam Martens --Late yesterday afternoon, while the stock market was still open, three reporters at the Wall Street Journal penned an article with this opening statement: “President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, an economist at the forefront of policy-making for three decades, to become the next Treasury secretary, according to people familiar with the decision.” Within the next half hour, every major newswire and many of the largest newspapers in the U.S. were repeating the Journal’s story. The Journal noted that the Biden camp wasn’t expected to make a “formal announcement” of the Yellen nomination until November 30. Nonetheless, the Journal decided it had the self-anointed right to stand in for the Biden transition team and make the announcement a week ahead of time.  To induce a nice big stock market rally on the news (the Dow closed up 327.7 points) the Journal article carried this pivotal paragraph: “Ms. Yellen is an ‘excellent choice for Treasury secretary,’ said Gary Cohn, President Trump’s former top economic adviser, in a statement. ‘Having had the opportunity to work with then-Chair Yellen, I have no doubt she will be the steady hand we need to promote an economy that works for everyone, especially during these difficult times.’ ”  By invoking Cohn’s name, the Journal was simultaneously invoking the approval of Goldman Sachs. Prior to arriving in the Trump administration, Cohn was the Co-President of Goldman Sachs who oversaw its trading business in the leadup to the 2008 crash. While Cohn sat in a top management position at Goldman, it offloaded billions of dollars of toxic subprime mortgage securities onto unwary customers, with employees even referring to one offering as a “shitty deal” in emails. Goldman was shorting (betting against) some of the pools of mortgages it was representing to its customers as a good investment and allowing John Paulson’s hedge fund to do the same after the hedge fund selected mortgages designed to fail. Billions of dollars of this rotten paper were sold to public pension funds and other institutional investors. In an effort to counter the glee on Wall Street yesterday with the Yellen news, which might be interpreted by progressives that Biden was selling out to Wall Street, Elizabeth Warren Tweeted the following at 4:34 p.m. yesterday as the Yellen headlines were appearing coast-to-coast: “Janet Yellen would be an outstanding choice for Treasury Secretary. She is smart, tough, and principled. As one of the most successful Fed Chairs ever, she has stood up to Wall Street banks, including holding Wells Fargo accountable for cheating working families.”  In truth, no federal regulator has held Wall Street banks accountable in either the Obama or Trump administrations. JPMorgan Chase just landed its 4^th and 5^th felony counts in six years; Goldman was just criminally charged by the Justice Department in an international bribery and kickback scandal; and Citigroup has the worst rap sheet in its century of existence.

Biden plans to nominate Janet Yellen for Treasury secretary - President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as his Treasury secretary, a move that would put the first woman and a seasoned central banker into the nation’s top economic policy job as the coronavirus pandemic threatens another U.S. downturn, people familiar with the matter said. In Yellen, Biden is likely to find support from both Wall Street, which feared a more provocative pick such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and progressives, who were concerned he might choose someone too friendly to big banks and the wealthy. If confirmed by the Senate, Yellen, 74, would be tasked with helping steer the U.S. economy through a resurgent pandemic that is already causing parts of the nation to resume painful lockdowns. The most immediate challenge would be breaking a logjam on Capitol Hill to deliver economic relief to long and growing unemployment lines. Nine months into the pandemic, more than 6 million people still claim extended unemployment assistance and joblessness is again on the rise as U.S. coronavirus infections spiked to well more than 100,000 a day. Investors, though, are likely to welcome Yellen. During her time as Fed chair, tech stocks doubled even as she presided over the first interest rate increases in 11 years. At the same time, investors may be wary of recent comments she made on the need to take greater regulatory action after financial market mayhem when the economy was locked down in March to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Still, investors are likely to take comfort in her stance in favor of additional emergency government spending. “While the pandemic is still seriously affecting the economy we need to continue extraordinary fiscal support, but even beyond that I think it will be necessary,” Yellen said Oct. 19 on Bloomberg Television. 

Joe Biden’s cabinet: A rainbow coalition of imperialist reaction - The corporate media and Democratic Party are celebrating Joe Biden’s incoming cabinet as “the most diverse in US history,” proclaiming that the appointment of women, African Americans and Latinos to key cabinet positions is a sign of tremendous social progress. In reality, Biden’s rainbow coalition of imperialist reaction encapsulates and exposes the right-wing essence of identity politics. Nowhere is the excitement more palpable than in the editorial offices of the New York Times, a leading proponent of racial and gender politics, which gushed that the president-elect has “signaled his intention to draw from a diverse cross section of America in building his cabinet.” Whatever the skin color of the cabinet members, the Biden administration will not think like America. The population is demanding massive social change to address the deadly pandemic and unprecedented levels of inequality and social desperation. Though over seven in 10 Americans favor universal health care, there will be no constituency within the cabinet for such a policy. The same goes for the more than six in 10 Americans who support tuition-free college and student debt forgiveness. They will be “represented” by a cabinet consisting of equity fund partners of various races and genders. And for the over 75 percent of Americans who want troops removed from Afghanistan and Iraq and who support cutting defense spending, the multi-racial Biden cabinet will give them the exact opposite. The nominees are not pioneers of their race or gender, they are social criminals: Avril Haines, a former CIA deputy director, will be the first woman director of national intelligence. Haines was an architect of the Obama administration’s drone assassination program, which killed thousands of impoverished Africans, Arabs and Central Asians, with no attention to the victims’ gender. Alejandro Mayorkas will be the first Latino to head the Department of Homeland Security. This will be little comfort for the hundreds of thousands of Latino (and other) immigrants he will deport in the coming months and years, or to the immigrant children he jailed in cages when he was deputy DHS secretary from 2013 to 2016.  Linda Thomas-Greenfield, an African American, will be ambassador to the United Nations. Thomas-Greenfield worked in the State Department to help American oil and mining corporations extract resources from the world’s most impoverished countries. Though not formally a member of the cabinet, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris—the first woman and first African American in that position—made her career as a “black woman prosecutor” by trampling on the lives of the mostly impoverished people she incarcerated. Then there are the white men, whose own records are no more and no less criminal than those of their female and minority counterparts. Antony Blinken is the nominee for secretary of state, having helped orchestrate the wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen. He was a partner at a private equity firm and co-founded WestExec Advisors, which works with Israeli intelligence and helped develop Google’s censorship tools. Former Secretary of State John Kerry, supporter of intervention in Syria and the 2013 coup in Egypt that established the murderous al-Sisi dictatorship, will be “climate czar.” As for those on the shortlists for other cabinet positions, the Times holds its breath for the prospect of Tammy Duckworth becoming the first handicapped, Thai woman to serve as defense secretary. Former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg could be the first openly gay secretary of transportation. These servants of Wall Street and US imperialism have nothing in common with the working people of “their own” race, gender or sexual orientation.

AOC & 'The Squad' Confront Biden About Lack Of 'Progressive' Cabinet Picks - Now that Joe Biden has announced all of his nominations for key positions shaping the administration's foreign policy and domestic economic policy, it's pretty clear that "the Squad" (which some have quietly blamed for the Democrats' surprisingly poor performance in House races across the country) and their progressive allies got shafted. Biden took none of their recommendations for top positions (neither Elizabeth Warren nor Bernie Sanders will play prominent roles). AOC and her allies are badly in need of a win to try and show their backers that they didn't completely fold on their principles by backing Biden. And with a few more progressive members joining their ranks in the upcoming Congress, AOC needs to step up and be a leader if she has any hope of running for president in 2028 (she won't quite meet the minimum age in 2024). 'The Squad' is looking for a scalp, and they're going after a key player in the incipient Biden Administration: Bruce Reed, Biden's former chief of staff during his years as VP. Biden and his team have picked Reed to lead the OMB, a relatively sleepy office that makes recommendations about the federal budget. According to a report in Axios, AOC and Ilhan Omar are circulating a petition calling on Biden to drop Reed, criticizing him as a deficit hawk. It's an interesting choice considering that Biden's National Security team is filled with deep state stalwarts who have never said no to a foreign entanglement. But the fact that Reed once recommended cuts to Social Security and Medicare makes him unpalatable to leftists. Reed led the Bowles-Simpson Commission under Barack Obama, which progressives opposed because of the cuts. "Biden must not repeat Obama’s mistake," the petition warns. The petition which has been signed by AOC, Omar and fellow Squad member Rashida Tlaib, objects to Reed, characterizing him as a "major test for the soul of the Biden presidency," and demanding that OMB "be staffed with people who will prioritize working people, not Wall Street deficit scaremongers." Two other new progressive lawmakers - Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush — are also backing the petition. They recently joined a protest movement urging Biden to keep his promise to pass a $2 trillion version of the "Green New Deal".In a separate incident, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee hired the actor Mark Ruffalo to record and then blast out an e-mail to their nearly 1 million members urging Biden to pick Rep. Deb Haaland for secretary of the Interior, one of the few remaining cabinet-level positions that's still up for grabs. Right now, leftists are terrified that a Biden presidency will simply morph into 'Obama Part 3' and everyone will forget about them and all the protest movements they helped organize as the fever of 'Democratic socialism' finally breaks.

Wisconsin Republican tests positive for coronavirus - A Wisconsin congressman on Sunday announced he had been diagnosed with COVID-19 and was experiencing mild symptoms. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) said in a statement he tested positive Sunday after experiencing symptoms following his return to the state from Washington, D.C. He added that he would quarantine at home. His diagnosis comes as both Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin have seen surging rates of new confirmed cases of the virus in recent weeks. In Wisconsin, more than 376,000 total cases have been confirmed and the state is now reporting around 7,000 new cases per day. Washington, D.C., health officials are reporting around just over 100 new cases per day, a rising rate that has so far remained under a peak the city saw earlier this year. The U.S. has now seen more than 12 million cases of COVID-19, and more than 250,000 Americans have died from the virus.

Connecticut Democrat diagnosed with COVID-19 - A Democratic congressman from Connecticut tested positive for COVID-19, according to a statement released through his office Sunday. In the statement, Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) said that he was exposed to the virus by someone who did not know at the time they had contracted it. He said he was experiencing "mild" symptoms. “Upon learning of that initial exposure, I immediately began following the strict isolation guidelines laid out by the CDC and by my doctor while I waited to get a coronavirus test. After my first test came back negative, I continued to isolate but began to experience mild symptoms," said the congressman. "I got another test and, this evening I was notified that the second test came back positive," he continued. "I’ve got a lot of confidence in my treating doctor and in my team—our work for eastern Connecticut will continue as always, and I’ll keep performing my duties in a safe, remote fashion while isolated at my home." Courtney's diagnosis comes as the U.S. surged past 12 million cases of COVID-19 this week and officials marked a tragic milestone of 250,000 Americans dead from the virus. In Connecticut, the rate of new cases has surged past a peak the state saw earlier this year and now sits at a 7-day average of more than 1,800 new cases per day.

Loeffler to continue to self-isolate after conflicting COVID-19 test results - Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) will continue to self-isolate after receiving conflicting COVID-19 test results, a campaign official said Sunday. Campaign spokesperson Stephen Lawson released a statement saying Loeffler’s “inconclusive” coronavirus test results from Saturday were retested overnight and “thankfully came back negative.” “Out of an abundance of caution, she will continue to self-isolate and be retested again to hopefully receive consecutive negative test results,” Lawson said. “We will share those results as they are made available,” he continued. “She will continue to confer with medical experts and follow CDC guidelines.” The update comes after the Loeffler campaign announced Saturday night that she would be self-isolating after a possible COVID-19 exposure. In a Saturday statement, Lawson said the Georgia senator took two tests on Friday, including a rapid test that came back negative and allowed her to participate in two campaign events with Vice President Mike Pence. But after the events, she was informed that a polymerase chain reaction test (PCR) returned positive results. Loeffler then was tested on Saturday, leading to “inconclusive” results. Lawson had said she was not experiencing symptoms. Loeffler is competing in a runoff race against Rev. Raphael Warnock on Jan. 5, one of two races in Georgia that will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. In the other race, Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) faces Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff. Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) both announced that they tested positive for the virus this week. Last month, Loeffler tested negative for the virus after two of her staff members received positive test results.

Nevada congresswoman tests positive for COVID-19 after traveling to Ohio to visit dying mother - A United States representative from Nevada said she has tested positive for the coronavirus following a recent trip to Ohio. U.S. Rep. Susie Lee shared news about the infection on Wednesday, announcing that the positive test result came after traveling to Ohio to visit her dying mother. According to U.S. Rep. Lee, she traveled to Ohio on Monday after her mother started to receive in-home hospice care. She said she maintained social distance, wore a mask, and took a COVID-19 test before traveling. The test on Sunday was negative, but U.S. Rep. Lee said a positive result confirmed the coronavirus when testing again on Wednesday. Tragically, U.S. Rep. Lee said her mother died on Tuesday night following months of deteriorating health. The congresswoman said she is currently feeling no symptoms and plans to participate in funeral services for her mother and for her legislative work remotely while isolating.

Fauci: 'We're in a very difficult situation at all levels' but 'help is on the way' - Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, warned that the U.S. was in a “very, very difficult situation at all levels” with regard to the coronavirus pandemic, but said “we should not look upon this as a hopeless situation.” “We’re in a very, very difficult situation at all levels,” Fauci said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” citing increasing infections throughout most of the country. He added that in terms of public health measures to stem the spread, “we’re not talking about shutting down the country and locking down completely but we do know mitigation measures work” such as wearing masks, social distancing and frequent hand-washing. Fauci, pointing to the development of two separate vaccine candidates, urged Americans not to lose hope even as they continued to take precautions. “You don’t want people to get terrified but you want them to understand that we can do something about that by mitigation methods and also help is on the way, so we should not look upon this as a hopeless situation,” he said. “When you get COVID fatigue, which is entirely understandable, that people just throw up their hands and say heck, we’re not going to be able to do anything about it, let’s just do what we want to do, that’s the wrong decision, because vaccines are coming and they’re going to be available relatively soon if we can hang in there with the mitigation methods,” Fauci added. Fauci cautioned that for a vaccine to achieve herd immunity depended on a combination of the vaccine’s efficacy and how many people take it. “If you have a highly efficacious vaccine and only a relatively small 40 to 50 percent of the population get vaccinated, you’re not going to get the herd immunity you need,” he added.

Vaccine czar predicts life could be back to normal in May - The chief adviser to the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed estimates the U.S. could reach herd immunity from the coronavirus in May as immunizations are expected to begin sometime next month. During an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday, Moncef Slaoui estimated 70 percent of the U.S. population could receive a coronavirus vaccine several months into 2021.  “Our plan is to be able to ship vaccines to the immunization sites within 24 hours from the approval, so I would expect maybe on day two after approval on the 11th or the 12th of December,” Slaoui told CNN Sunday. “Normally, with the level of efficacy we have, 95 percent, 70 percent or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place,” he said. “That is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that, based on our plans.” Slaoui’s comments on Sunday come after Pfizer applied for emergency authorization for its coronavirus vaccine Friday, which the drugmaker said showed to be 95 percent effective in phase three clinical trials. A second vaccine from Moderna is expected to be submitted for emergency authorization soon as well. Drugmaker AstraZeneca also announced Monday that its vaccine candidate developed by Oxford University has shown an average efficacy of 70 percent in large-scale trials. Tens of millions of people in the U.S. could be vaccinated in the weeks and months following emergency use authorization. Health care workers and the most vulnerable populations are first on the list to receive the vaccine.  The estimate comes as the U.S. is seeing cases of the coronavirus rise at an alarming rate in nearly every state. More than 167,000 new cases are being reported each day with 1,470 new deaths, according to The Covid Tracking Project. Currently, 83,870 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 across the country, a record high.

Former NATO commander: More than one company needed to distribute COVID-19 vaccines - Former NATO commander James Stavridis wrote in an op-ed for Fortunemagazine that the U.S. government must task more than one company with distributing the COVID-19 vaccine if it hopes to succeed in immunizing enough of the population. “A key tenet in the military’s operational planning for any contingency is to never allow for a single point of failure,” Stavridis wrote. “Our military regularly scrutinizes each part of an operation to ensure every contingency has been considered and no resources are left on the sideline. The scale and importance of a COVID-19 vaccination program demands the U.S. government focus on resilience.” Stavridis notes that the U.S. government hopes to provide enough vaccines for at least 300 million people and has so far only hired one drug distributor, McKesson, to handle this enormous task.  “Putting all of our eggs in a single basket exposes our vaccination process to the potential for what we in the military call a single point of failure risk,” writes Stavridis.  Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna recently announced that their coronavirus vaccine candidates have been shown to be more than 90 percent effective. Pfizer applied for emergency approval from the Food and Drug Administration for its vaccine on Saturday. “But there is less clarity around the national vaccination effort,” writes Stavridis. “The parameters around who will receive the vaccine, when, and how are still murky. The sooner the process is made more transparent, the more trust and confidence the public will feel.” The former U.S. Navy admiral suggested that the government use the military, which is already running exercises in case of distribution failures, to test how effectively multiple companies could distribute the vaccine.“The U.S. has the most professional military in the world. I have no doubt that with the Defense Department supporting the development, production, and distribution of COVID vaccines, America can carry out an effective vaccination program,” Stavridis wrote.

 Coronavirus update: HHS puts vaccine distribution in states' power; Wall Street analysts project lifelong vaccine protection - With three vaccine candidates out with a first look at efficacy data, Wall Street is more optimistic about the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. SVB Leerink analysts upgraded outlooks for Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca Tuesday, pointing to the long-term protection that is likely to come from the various candidates.While health experts are still wary to commit to the durability outlook, analyst Geoffrey Porges said in a note Tuesday, “We now believe that immunity after natural infection will be virtually lifelong and expect recovered COVID cases to need only a single boosting immunization a year or two after their infection to be protected against re-infection for life (similar to immunity after measles or other respiratory pathogens apart from influenza).”Porges said that takes needing annual vaccines off the table, likely requiring one additional vaccination in a lifetime. A recent study supported a longer protection time, but whether it would be lifelong is still unknown.“We failed to realize that it’s not like influenza, but more like measles, mumps and rubella,” Porges said.  This means that investment into the vaccines is not going to result in a huge payoff, he added. Even so, that won’t stop the innovation, Porges said. Pfizer and BioNTech have been criticized for the ultra-cold storage needs, posing a hurdle for countries without the necessary infrastructure. To that, Porges said patience is key.“Don’t sell the Pfizer program short. They will announce better storage conditions in a matter of weeks,” he said, noting that the company needs to take the time to complete stability testing. Pfizer’s sheer size as a pharmaceutical company, and as a top vaccine producer, gives the company a leg up against Moderna. But both are using a platform that can be scaled up far more easily, since its chemical-based, compared to the biological process of AstraZeneca.

Dianne Feinstein to step down as top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary panel -  Sen. Dianne Feinstein plans to step down as the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee in the next Congress, after facing blowback from progressives for her handling of Amy Coney Barrett's contentious Supreme Court confirmation hearing. Three people familiar with the matter told POLITICO, which Feinstein soon confirmed. “After serving as the lead Democrat on the Judiciary Committee for four years, I will not seek the chairmanship or ranking member position in the next Congress,” the California Democrat said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing to serve as a senior Democrat on the Judiciary, Intelligence, Appropriations and Rules committees as we work with the Biden administration.” Feinstein added that she planned to focus her attention on combating climate change and the coronavirus pandemic. Members of her own party had expressed concern before Barrett's hearing that the 87-year-old wouldn't be aggressive enough. Her approach to the battle over filling the seat left by the late Ruth Bader Ginsberg soon confirmed many Democrats' fears, particularly after she praised Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) for his handling of the process and gave him a hug at the conclusion. Shortly after the hearings, several liberal groups called on her to resign from her position. One of those groups, Demand Justice, applauded her decision to step down. "This was a necessary step if Democrats are ever going to meaningfully confront the damage Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell have done to the federal judiciary," said Brian Fallon, executive director of Demand Justice. "Going forward, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee must be led by someone who will not wishfully cling to a bygone era of civility and decorum that Republicans abandoned long ago."

Trump pardons Flynn despite guilty plea in Russia probe (AP) — President Donald Trump pardoned his former national security adviser Michael Flynn on Wednesday, ending a yearslong prosecution in the Russia investigation that saw Flynn twice plead guilty to lying to the FBI and then reverse himself before the Justice Department stepped in to dismiss his case. “It is my Great Honor to announce that General Michael T. Flynn has been granted a Full Pardon,” Trump tweeted. “Congratulations to @GenFlynn and his wonderful family, I know you will now have a truly fantastic Thanksgiving!” The pardon, in the waning weeks of Trump’s single term, is part of a broader effort by Trump to undo the results of a Russia investigation that shadowed his administration and yielded criminal charges against a half-dozen associates. It comes just months after the president commuted the sentence of another associate, Roger Stone, days before he was to report to prison. A Justice Department official said the department was not consulted on the pardon and learned Wednesday of the plan. But the official, who spoke on condition on anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, noted that the president has the legal power to pardon Flynn. The move is likely to energize supporters who have taken up Flynn as a cause celebre and rallied around the retired Army lieutenant general as the victim of what they assert is an unfair prosecution, even though Flynn twice admitted guilt. Trump has repeatedly spoken warmly about Flynn and, in an indication of his personal interest in his fate, asked then-FBI Director James Comey in February 2017 to end a criminal investigation into the national security adviser. In a statement, Flynn’s family thanked Trump “for answering our prayers and the prayers of a nation” by issuing the pardon. 

Trump pushing through dozens of last minute policy changes – including use of firing squads - Donald Trump has sought fast-track authorisation for several administration-wide policy changes before he leaves the White House in January, including the use of firing squads and electrocutions in federal executions, according to a report from ProPublica.The Department of Justice entered a proposed rule change into the federal register in August. It cleared a White House review earlier this month, and the president could authorise the policy before he leaves office.Federal executions are typically carried about by lethal injection, unless a judge orders a person to death by other means.According to the proposed rule change, the administration claims that “death by firing squad and death by electrocution do not violate the Eighth Amendment's prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment”.The proposal argues: “In recent US Supreme Court litigation involving Eighth Amendment challenges to execution by lethal injection, nitrogen hypoxia and firing squad have been identified as potential alternative methods of execution, including by prisoners themselves, that might – or even must– be used instead of lethal injection, in particular because those methods allegedly carry a lesser risk of pain."It’s unlikely that the rule could be put into practise – president-elect Joe Biden does not support the death penalty and has signalled that he could seek to eliminate capital punishment for felony convictions and suspend federal executions, which Attorney General William Barr aggressively pursued after he was sworn in last year. Federal executions resumed for the first time in 17 years in July, following a divided Supreme Court ruling that paved the way for their return. Daniel Lee was killed in Indiana following a conviction for the murder of a family of three in Arkansas in 1996. The Associated Press reporter present for his killing said his last words were "you’re killing an innocent man." Orlando Cordia Hall was executed on 19 November. In the remaining weeks of the Trump administration, the federal government will kill five more people – Brandon Bernard, Alfred Bourgeois, Dustin Higgins, Corey Johnson and Lisa Montgomery, who will be the first female federal inmate to be executed in decades.

Trump moves to strip job protections from White House budget analysts as he races to transform civil service -  The outgoing Trump administration is racing to enact the biggest change to the federal civil service in generations, reclassifying career employees at key agencies to strip their job protections and leave them open to being fired before Joe Biden takes office.  The move to pull off an executive order the president issued less than two weeks before Election Day — affecting tens of thousands of people in policy roles — is accelerating at the agency closest to the White House, the Office of Management and Budget.  The budget office sent a list this week of roles identified by its politically appointed leaders to the federal personnel agency for final sign-off. The list comprises 88 percent of its workforce — 425 analysts and other experts who would shift into a new job classification called Schedule F.  The employees would then be vulnerable to dismissal before Trump leaves office if they are considered poor performers or have resisted executing the president’s priorities, effectively turning them into political appointees that come and go with each administration.  The Office of Personnel Management is also rushing to shuffle many of its own roughly 3,500 employees into the new category, a senior administration official said. Other agencies are pulling together lists of policy roles, too — but the budget and personnel offices volunteered to be test cases for the controversial policy, this official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations.  By fast-tracking a process that gave agencies until Jan. 19 to identify affected jobs, the administration appears to be signaling its intent to leave as big an imprint as possible on a workforce it has long mistrusted. Democrats on Capitol Hill are trying to block the effort.  The White House budget office acts as the nerve center of the government, an elite career workforce that prepares and helps administer the annual spending plan and helps set fiscal and personnel policy for federal agencies. Its analysts are generally mission-driven, and they provide vast institutional memory and expertise for a president, regardless of party.  With little guidance from the administration, alarmed employees, their allies in Congress and experts in the civil service are wondering how far Trump can go in the 54 days he has left in office.  “Does the Trump administration proceed with moving the career and political workforce of [the budget office] into Schedule F?” Neal said. “The fact that [the budget office] came up with a list two months ahead of the Jan. 19 deadline leads me to believe they will.” If enough employees are viewed as disloyal to the outgoing administration, they could be fired or reassigned, leaving Biden with an empty budget office.

Trump order could spark mass firings of civil servants, lawmakers warn - (Reuters) - U.S. government civil servants could face mass firings under an October executive order before President Donald Trump leaves office and Democratic lawmakers, watchdog groups and unions are mobilizing to block the move. Leaders of 23 House committees and subcommittees asked the heads of 61 federal departments and agencies to provide a "full accounting" of any plans to reclassify federal workers under the Oct. 21 order, leaving them vulnerable to firing. They also asked for details about any Trump political appointees who have already been hired into career jobs or are being considered. Initial responses are due Dec. 9, followed by biweekly updates, according to the letter, spearheaded by Oversight and Reform Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney. Wednesday's letter came after 13 House Democrats, including Gerry Connolly, chairman of the House Subcommittee on Government Operations and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, on Tuesday urged appropriators to reverse the order in their next spending bill. Trump's order allows agencies to reclassify workers involved in policy-making to a new "Schedule F" category without the job protections they have now. The agencies must complete their reviews by Jan. 19, the day before President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. The White House order says Trump is pushing to streamline the federal bureaucracy, increase accountability and make it easier to clear out "poor performers." The federal government employs about 2 million people in total. Critics call the move part of an ongoing assault on government bureaucracy that has drained expertise and skills during the Trump administration. Creating the new category of federal workers would expose the civil service to "undue political influence and intimidation," the committee chairs warned in their letter. In Tuesday's letter, Democrats said the order would "expedite the hiring of political appointees into jobs without regard to merit and place them in roles best served by career civil servants -- including economists, scientists, and data analysts."House and Senate Democrats separately asked the nonpartisan congressional Government Accountability Office this week to monitor implementation of the order, warning it could result in "a mass exodus" of federal employees in coming weeks. The White House Office of Management and Budget has requested to reclassify 88% of its workforce of 425 workers to the new category, Real Clear Politics reported this week. OMB did not respond to repeated requests for information.

The Supreme Court’s “Breathtakingly Radical” New Approach to Election Law -- In the end, the blizzard of lawsuits from President Donald Trump’s campaign will amount to nothing beyond a megaphone for disinformation about the integrity of the 2020 election. As destructive as the president’s attempts to undermine democracy are, the most lasting damage to America’s election system is likely to come instead from a series of Supreme Court rulings that appear perfunctory but actually could restrict voters’ rights for years to come.  In the weeks before Election Day, the court weighed in on more than a dozen cases in a way that many portrayed as a mixed bag for voting rights—allowing voting expansions to stand in some cases and sharply curtailing them in others. But that scorecard approach obscures the principal effect of the court’s rulings: In all of the cases, regardless of whether the Trump campaign won or lost, the justices quietly—yet dramatically—rolled back Americans’ voting rights in ways that could do permanent harm—that is, unless Congress steps in.  Let’s start with the visible damage.  In multiple cases, and often without a shred of explanation, the Supreme Court affirmatively stepped in to make it harder to vote. The first case was in Wisconsin in April, right after the pandemic hit. A lower court had extended the deadline for returning mail ballots in the presidential primary by six days. But the night before the election, over a withering dissent by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg—one of her last written opinions—the Supreme Court blocked that extension, leaving voters only hours to obtain and return their ballots. The result: thousands of citizens were unable to return their ballots on time, and their votes were not counted.  Likewise, in South Carolina in early October, the court reinstated a witness requirement for absentee ballots after voting had already started and weeks after the ballot instructions had been printed. While the court exempted voters whose ballots were delivered within two days of its ruling without a witness signature, at least 2,509 ballots arrived after that date and were disqualified. In Alabama, the court stepped in two weeks before Election Day to reinstate witness identification requirements for absentee ballots and a ban on curbside voting.

Pennsylvania Appeals Court Tosses Trump Lawsuit, Setting Stage For Supreme Court Showdown - A federal appeals court has tossed an attempt by the Trump campaign to revive a lawsuit seeking to undo Pennsylvania's certification of Joe Biden's irregularity-plagued victory in the state. The Friday decision potentially sets the stage for a US Supreme Court showdown, in which the 6-3 (arguably) conservative majority could overturn the results of the election. That said, according to Bloomberg - citing 'experts' - it's unlikely that the high court will take up a case if the evidence is lacking, and which won't affect the outcome of the election - given that Biden would still win the White House without Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes."Voters, not lawyers, choose the president," reads the opinion from the appeals court, adding "Ballots, not briefs, decide elections. The ballots here are governed by Pennsylvania election law. No federal law requires poll watchers or specifies where they must live or how close they may stand when votes are counted. Nor does federal law govern whether to count ballots with minor state-law defects or let voters cure those defects."The Trump campaign sought to have a federal court invalidate Pennsylvania's certification, and then get the state's General Assembly to select Trump electors to the Electoral College - which campaign attorney Marc Scaringi wrrote to the US Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit (via CNBC)."The Pennsylvania General Assembly has the power to appoint the Commonwealth’s presidential electors," wrote Scaringi, adding "A decision by the District Court that President Trump won the legal votes may have significant impact on the General Assembly." The campaign has alleged widespread voting fraud.

 Donations to Trump's legal fund could be used for family, 2024 bid - Business Insider - President Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election but continues to bombard voters with repeated texts and emails seeking donations for his efforts to overturn the results. "Please contribute $5 RIGHT NOW to the Election Defense Fund to stop the Radical Left from STEALING this Election," one campaign email said on Tuesday. However, it remains unknown exactly what that money is being used for. In the days following the election, the fine print on Trump's Make America Great Again Committee donation page said 60% of every contribution would be routed to pay off campaign debt. Trump then directed that share of funds to his new leadership political action committee, Save America, which he launched on November 9, three days after Decision Desk HQ and Insider called the race for President-elect Joe Biden. The details have been updated again. Now the first 75% of each donation goes to Save America, but the amount is capped at $5,000. Once that dollar amount has been met, a portion of the contribution goes to the Trump campaign's recount account. And 25% of the money is sent to a Republican National Committee account. A leadership PAC is typically created by current and former politicians to donate money to each other and build relationships. The contributions can be used to fund candidates' travel and events, for example. Trump's PAC has raised questions about whether he will try to maintain political influence after he exits the White House. Trump's campaign spokesperson Tim Murtaugh said in a statement after the president established Save America that he "always planned to do this, win or lose, so he can support candidates and issues he cares about, such as combating voter fraud." However, there aren't many restrictions on how the donations can be spent, meaning Trump could use the funds entirely for himself. Multiple reports suggested he could spend the money to help finance a 2024 presidential bid or support his post-presidency life, as well as his family members.

Trump Jr. Posts Video of His Father Beating Up Biden In “Bronx Tale” Bar Brawl - The president’s son has posted a bizarre video online that showed the famous bar brawl scene from the movie “A Bronx Tale,” with the heads of various politicians superimposed over the heads of the actors. Some of the politicians involved in the brawl were Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Rudy Guiliani, Chris Christie, Nancy Pelosi, Mike Pence, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.   As expected the scene descends into a brutal brawl between top Democrats and Republicans. Many of the Democrats appear to be wearing jackets with logos of the Hell’s Angels biker gang, while Trump and his attackers are wearing suits.  The video, which can be seen below, was uploaded to Instagram with the caption: “Now youse can’t leave!!! Great remake from A Bronx Tale.” The president’s son appears to have used the video service SteveClipz to make the animation.  In the video, Trump begins by storming into the bar and punching Biden in the face before being helped by Rudy Giuliani and former New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie. At one point in the video, Mike Pence appears to pull a gun. Later, Trump stomps on someone’s face.  The audio from the film continued over the new version of the video, with the movie’s protagonist saying, “I will never forget the look on their faces. All eight of them. Their faces dropped. All their courage and strength was drained right from their bodies. They had a reputation for breaking up bars, but they knew that instant, they’d made a fatal mistake. This time they walked into the wrong bar.”  Donald Trump Jr. posted the strange video from quarantine, after he tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week. He says that he does not have any symptoms but is isolating out of caution because he tested positive.

Melania Is Planning To Divorce Trump White House Insider Says -Donald Trump’s relationship with his wife Melania has been a topic of speculation throughout the couple’s entire time in the White House, and now the subject is in the news yet again, after a former White House aide told reporters that the first lady is planning to divorce the president as soon as he’s out of office.Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman told The Mail on Sunday that “Melania is counting every minute until he is out of office and she can divorce.”Newman said that Melania would have left him already but she fears how he would react if she were to humiliate him by leaving him while he was still in office. Newman said that Melania has decided to spare the president the “ultimate humiliation” of being the only president to get divorced while in office. In fact, Ronald Reagan is the only US president other than Trump who had a divorce, while Trump is the only president in US history to have multiple divorces.Fact-checkers have confirmed that the moving truck seen outside of the White House was real, prompting speculation that Melania is the one moving out.  I’m taking this live shot of the White House, with a moving truck outside, as a good omen.pic.twitter.com/Uz4SuoU94N    Melania and Donald have been married for 15 years, and dating for 6 years before that. The couple’s relationship was the topic of a highly publicized book that came out earlier this year titled “Melania and Me,” which was written by Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, an old friend of Melania. The book revealed the power dynamics at play in the Trump White House, and discussed rivalries between Melania and Trump’s children. In the book, Wolkoff also shared her frustrations about her own friendship with Melania, describing her as someone who exploits the kindness of her friends to get what she wants.  According to CNN, Melania is among members of the Trump inner circle who are now urging him to concede. Even Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law, and senior adviser, has approached him and urged him to concede.

JPMorgan fined $250 million for problems in advisory business - JPMorgan Chase will pay a $250 million fine for poor risk management practices and conflicts of interest in its advisory business, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Tuesday. The $3.2 trillion-asset company had warned in early November that it might have to pay a penalty for shortcomings in internal controls and internal audit tied to certain advisory and other activities. Indeed, “the OCC found the bank’s risk management practices were deficient and it lacked a sufficient framework to avoid conflicts of interest,” the agency said in a news release announcing the civil money penalty. However, JPMorgan did not admit guilt in the matter, the OCC said in a seven-page order that detailed the agency’s findings. It is JPMorgan’s second major fine this fall: In September, the company agreed to pay the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and other agencies $920 million for manipulating the markets for precious metals and Treasury securities. JPMorgan’s fiduciary business provides a range of investment strategies and vehicles to clients handling $29.1 trillion in assets. The OCC found that for “several years” JPMorgan had a “weak” management and control program for that business line and an “insufficient” auditing program to catch any problems. Conflicts of interest arise “whenever a bank engages in self-dealing and in any situation where a bank's ability to act in the best interests of its account beneficiaries or clients is impaired,” according to the OCC. This can happen when banks direct investors to their own brokers or funds. Banks are reportedly reportedly rushing to settle federal investigations before President-elect Joe Biden takes office because he is expected to put a tougher regulatory framework in place. The penalty announced Tuesday will be paid to the U.S. Treasury, the OCC said.

 Both Citigroup and JPMorgan Have Now Received Huge Fines for Crimes the Regulators Won’t Reveal – Pam Martens - Maybe it’s because the nonpartisan watchdog, Better Markets, published a report last year titled “Wall Street’s Six Biggest Bailed-Out Banks: Their RAP Sheets & Their Ongoing Crime Spree.” Or maybe it all comes down to what Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois said after the financial crisis of 2008: “And the banks are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place.” Whatever the reason, the darkness that started growing around the crimes committed by the big Wall Street banks during the Obama administration has now evolved into such a complete dark curtain that regulators are refusing to say what the crimes actually are that are being settled for huge amounts of money.  On October 7, the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced consent decrees with Citigroup, the third largest bank in the country. The OCC imposed a $400 million fine on Citigroup’s federally-insured commercial bank, Citibank, and stated in its Consent Order that it had “identified unsafe or unsound practices with respect to the Bank’s internal controls, including, among other things, an absence of clearly defined roles and responsibilities and noncompliance with multiple laws and regulations.”  We were so stunned by a $400 million fine for crimes that can’t be put in print or shared with the public, that we penned the headline: Citigroup Is Slapped with a $400 Million Fine for Doing Something So Bad It Can’t Be Spoken Out Loud.  Yesterday, as further proof that this is a pattern coming out of the Trump administration, the OCC did the exact same thing with JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the country which on September 29 admitted to its fourth and fifth criminal felony charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice in the past six years.Yesterday, the OCC fined JPMorgan Chase $250 million without detailing any specific crimes it had committed. The Consent Order simply said the bank had, for several years, “maintained a weak management and control framework for its fiduciary activities and had an insufficient audit program for, and inadequate internal controls over, those activities. Among other things, the Bank had deficient risk management practices and an insufficient framework for avoiding conflicts of interest.”A Wall Street bank like JPMorgan Chase that has brazenly committed five felonies for very specific crimes, doesn’t get fined $250 million for non-specific crimes. Something very bad has once again happened at JPMorgan Chase and its federal regulators who are all rushing to get new jobs on Wall Street, or at Wall Street’s outside law firms, don’t want to talk about it. That’s inexcusable behavior and leaves the public in the dark as to whether what JPMorgan was doing might impact their own accounts at the bank. It also destroys public confidence in the regulators and the Wall Street banks.

Trump Nominates a Top Bank Regulator as Biden Starts Transition - President Donald Trump formally nominated Brian Brooks to take over a key banking regulator, potentially forcing Joe Biden to fire him after the president-elect is sworn in.In a brief Friday statement, the White House said it had sent the nomination to the Senate, where Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo has already signaled that Brooks would get a confirmation hearing for a five-year term leading the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Brooks has been acting OCC chief since May.Trump’s highly unusual move to try to install an industry friendly watchdog at the end of his administration has been blasted by Democratic lawmakers, who argue the president is refusing to accept the results of this month’s election.If Crapo, an Idaho Republican, succeeds in fast-tracking Brook’s confirmation, Biden would then have to decide whether to remove him after the Jan. 20 inauguration. While the law indicates Biden can oust Brooks, such authority has never been used before. Biden’s acting Treasury Secretary could immediately remove Brooks if he fails to win Senate approval.Most of the major regulations for U.S. banks are written and approved in collaboration among the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.and the OCC. Because Trump appointees are expected to continue running the other two agencies for a time, the OCC is thought to be in a key position to begin implementing Biden’s agenda for banks.Brooks is racing to finish a rule that would prohibit banks from refusing to lend to businesses that carry political risks, such as borrowers tied to oil exploration, firearms and private prisons. The proposal’s public-comment period ends Jan. 4, giving Brooks just days to finalize the regulation before Biden’s inauguration.

OCC enters new phase of CRA reform with scoring proposal— The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a long-awaited proposal on Community Reinvestment Act scoring, but said the agency still needs more data from banks before the new framework is complete. The proposal unveiled Tuesday, which accompanies broader CRA reforms finalized in May first proposed by former Comptroller Joseph Otting, stops short of providing concrete scoring standards that the agency says will ultimately make the CRA process more objective for banks. Rather, the OCC announced plans to require banks to submit more data about their CRA activity to help inform the scorecard. The goal of the new scoring standards ultimately is to establish minimum benchmarks for "satisfactory" and "outstanding" ratings on certain aspects of the CRA exam. “Once the OCC analyzes the public comments on this proposal and the data it receives,” the agency wrote in its proposed rule, “the OCC plans to issue a final rule that will adopt an approach for setting the benchmark, threshold, and minimum values that correspond to the presumptive ratings … for banks assessed under the general performance standards.” At the same time, the OCC appeared to make key commitments aimed at appeasing critics who claim that the new CRA regime will make it far easier for banks to pass their CRA exams. For example, the proposal said the scoring methodology will not lead to grade inflation compared to past exams. “[T]he OCC is proposing to establish benchmarks, thresholds, and minimums that correspond to a proportion of banks that would have received a hypothetical bank-level presumptive CRA rating of outstanding and satisfactory that is no greater than the historical proportion of banks that have received a bank-level assigned CRA rating of outstanding and satisfactory,” the proposal said. The OCC also proposed a new requirement that would scrutinize a bank's CRA performance under the new framework against its own historical CRA data. If the OCC finds a decline of 10% or greater between banks’ historical performance and actual performance under the new regime that “cannot be explained by market conditions or other factors,” the agency wrote in its proposal, regulators would consider a “downward adjustment in determining the bank’s assigned rating.”

OCC clarifies swap policies, makes other technical updates— The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency clarified that federal thrifts must abide by the same rules as national banks pertaining to membership in payment systems and codified policies on acceptable derivatives practices among a slew of technical updates announced Monday. The changes were included in a final rule as part of an effort to modernize OCC regulation of certain activities and operations for the digital age. “The rule is part of the OCC’s continuous effort to modernize its rules and remove unnecessary requirements to relieve banks of unnecessary burden, encourage economic opportunity, and promote the safe, sound, and fair operation of the federal banking system,” the agency wrote in a press release. The OCC’s rule expands the ability of supervised entities to adopt corporate governance provisions under state law, building off changes finalized by the agency last week when it finalized another rule to eliminate “unnecessary” bank licensing regulation. The rule codifies other long-time interpretations of OCC guidance regarding national banks’ ability to issue capital stock.

  Banks push back on OCC’s bid to ban lending bias- The banking industry is asking for more time to comment on a regulatory proposal that aims to prohibit banks from denying services to oil and gas companies and other firms in politically sensitive industries. Caught off guard when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the proposal last week, industry trade groups are asking the OCC to extend the 45-day comment by another 30 days. The comment deadline is Jan. 4. “The Associations and their member institutions are concerned that the existing comment deadline does not provide sufficient time to perform the level of analysis that this proposal warrants,” the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association and Financial Services Forum said in a joint letter to the OCC. But the OCC appears to be standing firm. It argues that the proposal simply formalizes guidance "issued and reinforced" by the agency since 2014. “We are surprised that the banks are surprised,” OCC spokesman Bryan Hubbard said in an email. “The failure to operationalize such long-standing guidance only underscores why the rule is needed. We look forward to reviewing all of the stakeholders’ comments.” Many banks in recent years have curtailed their lending for oil and gas exploration, arguing that fossil fuel projects not only contribute to a warming world but increasingly pose business and reputational risks for lenders. But the OCC says such pledges amount to discrimination and wants to prohibit from denying services from lawful businesses that meet quantitative, objective standards for receiving services. The OCC’s “fair access” standard would require that banks with more than $100 billion of assets disregard any social or political considerations when deciding which industries or companies they will do business with. In the proposal issued Nov. 20, the agency called out several politically sensitive industries in which banks have curtailed activities, including not just the oil and gas sector, but also family planning clinics and gun dealers and manufacturers. Some environmentally conscious investors criticized the proposed rule as an overtly political attempt to curry favor with Republican legislators and further argued that banks have business justifications for limiting their exposure to oil and gas. One recent analysis by Ceres, a nonprofit focused on corporate sustainability, suggested that banks are still greatly underestimating their financial exposure to climate risk. “This is an eleventh-hour move by an outgoing administration that we think will limit banks from meeting their fiduciary responsibility,” said Steven Rothstein, managing director of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets. “Some banks have decided that they don’t want to invest in a risky sector of our economy, like coal or Arctic drilling.”

GOP readies counterpunch if Biden removes CFPB chief - Many expect President-elect Joe Biden will fire Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger after taking office, but a fight is already brewing over who would succeed her. The Supreme Court ruled in June that the president can fire a CFPB director for any reason, but some Republicans are suggesting Biden would be constrained by statute from naming an acting director, setting up yet another power struggle over control of the agency. Even though few dispute that Biden can remove the current CFPB chief before her term expires in 2023, a former deputy to Kraninger argues that such a move would likely still provoke a legal challenge over her replacement. Brian Johnson, who served as the bureau’s No. 2 under both Kraninger and former acting CFPB Director Mick Mulvaney, says the Federal Vacancies Reform Act — which gives presidents latitude in certain cases — does not cover vacancies created by firings. “There is a strong case to be made that the Federal Vacancies Reform Act does not apply to vacancies created by removal,” said Johnson, a partner at Alston & Bird. “In that circumstance the attempted appointment of an acting director and any actions taken by that acting director could be challenged.” Even though few dispute that Biden can remove current CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger before her term expires in 2023, a former deputy to Kraninger argues that such a move would likely still provoke a legal challenge over her replacement.Bloomberg NewsThe Federal Vacancies Reform Act, which has frequently been used by the executive branch to install acting regulatory leaders, applies when an officer “dies, resigns or is otherwise unable to perform the functions and duties of the office.” Johnson recently cited interpretations of the statute to mean that a president who fires an agency head to create a vacancy cannot bypass Senate confirmation to fill the post. "Conventional wisdom again holds that President Biden would name an acting director to run the CFPB," Johnson said in a recent post on the Alston & Bird website. "However, it is far from clear that he would succeed in doing so." Others say the statute is open to interpretation. “It’s actually a pretty hard question and something the courts are going to have to resolve,” “I could easily imagine when Biden becomes president, he fires the director, appoints someone as acting director, and that person is immediately sued.” Still others said the idea that the statute cannot be invoked after a firing is at odds with the law’s text and history. “An officer who has been fired is ‘unable to perform the functions and duties of the office,’ ” said Brianne Gorod, chief counsel of the Constitutional Accountability Center. She noted that former Sen. Fred Thompson, one of the law’s authors, had explained during floor debate that Congress chose broad language to ensure that the law covers all situations when an officer cannot perform the duties of the job. Johnson maintains that the vacancies act cannot be invoked after a firing. That would mean the Dodd-Frank Act would be the default statute, and the CFPB's current deputy director, Tom Pahl, would automatically become acting director.

  Small banks welcome PPP relief but fear it may not be enough - Small banks that have ballooned in size during the coronavirus pandemic breathed a sigh of relief last week when federal regulators gave them a reprieve from tougher supervisory rules that kick in at certain asset thresholds. But a grateful industry is also concerned about the potential impact of the upswing in COVID-19 cases and the growing possibility of additional emergency lending. Some banking officials and policy experts are already wondering if there will be enough time for lenders to shrink back to normal size by the deadline in 2022. “If things go south next year we may be singing a different story,” said Chris Cole, senior regulatory counsel for the Independent Community Bankers of America. “If you had another [Paycheck Protection Program] round, you may very well need an extension.” Banks will be able to rely on their asset sizes as of Dec. 31, 2019, for regulatory purposes under the rule issued Nov. 20 by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The relief applies to a series of regulatory requirements that kick in at various stages of a bank’s growth, including when assets reach $100 million, $500 million, $3 billion, $5 billion and $10 billion. The stricter supervisory rules involve capital levels, caps on debit interchange fees, financial reporting, frequency of exams and other matters. The agencies estimate that 44 holding companies and 582 community banks crossed at least one of those regulatory thresholds in the first half of the year. Smaller banks have accounted for most of the PPP lending since the program launched in April, and their growth accelerated as a result. For example, nine banks passed $10 billion in assets from the end of last year to June 30, and their combined asset sizes increased more than 30% over that time to nearly $100 billion total, according to data provided by the FDIC. Banks will have until 2022 to shrink back below any of these thresholds before the new rules would take effect.

 Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in October - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 2.89%, down from 3.04% in September. Freddie's rate is up from 0.61% in October 2019.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Note: Fannie Mae will report for October soon.

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in October –=- Note: Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.  From Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline for Fifth Consecutive Month in October; Record-Low Rates Push Prepayment Activity to 16-Year High:
• Mortgage delinquencies improved again in October, falling to 6.44%, the lowest level since March
• Despite five consecutive months of improvement, there are still more than 3.4 million delinquent mortgages, nearly twice as many as there were entering the year
• Serious delinquencies – loans 90 or more days past due – improved in October as well, but volumes remain at more than five times (+1.8 million) pre-pandemic levels
• October’s 4,700 foreclosure starts marked a nearly 90% year-over-year reduction as widespread moratoriums remain in place, while active foreclosure inventory set yet another record low at 178,000
• Record-low interest rates again pushed prepayment activity higher, with October’s prepayment rate of 3.17% setting the highest single-month mark in more than 16 years
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3.3% in October compared to September, and increased 90% year-over-year.  The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 1.6% in October and were down 31% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 6.44% in October, down from 6.66% in September. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in October to 0.33%, from 0.34% in September. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is up 1,651,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 77,000 properties year-over-year.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.48%" --Note: This is as of November 15th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.48% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 5.47% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.48% as of November 15, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans...“A marked slowdown in forbearance exits, as well as a slight rise in the share of Ginnie Mae, portfolio, and PLS loans in forbearance, led to an overall increase for the first time since early June. The decline in exits in the prior week follows a flurry of them last month, when many borrowers reached the six-month point in their forbearance terms,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The share of GSE loans in forbearance continued its downward trend and have now declined every week for six straight months.”Added Fratantoni, “Incoming housing market data remain quite strong, with existing-home sales in October reaching their fastest pace since 2005, and the inventory of homes on the market hitting a record low. However, renewed weakness in the latest job market data indicate that many homeowners are continuing to experience severe hardships due to the pandemic and still need the support that forbearance provides.”...By stage, 21.32% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 76.76% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.92% are forbearance re-entries.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased to 0.09 percent from 0.08 percent the previous week."There wsan't a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of November 23rd. From Black Knight: Forbearances Numbers See Another Slight Uptick:  Our weekly snapshot of daily forbearance tracking data showed another slight uptick in active forbearance plans through Monday, November 23. It’s worth noting that this week’s data represents a slightly truncated view – normally, we report forbearance numbers through the Tuesday of any given week.  After rising by some 30,000 last week, active forbearances were up another 27,000 from last Tuesday.  We should keep in mind that mild increases like this have been common in the middle of the month. Since the recovery started, the strongest declines have typically been seen early in the month, as expiring forbearance plans are removed. The performance of the last two weeks has continued this trend. Despite this week’s increase, the number of active forbearances remains down 7% (-207,00) from last month, roughly equivalent to the declines we’d seen in August and September.  In total, as of November 23, there are now 2.78 million homeowners in active forbearance plans. Together, representing approximately 5.3% of all active mortgages – up from 5.2% from last week – they account for approximately $564 billion in unpaid principal.

BankThink: Reducing mortgage defaults starts with beefing up housing supply The coronavirus pandemic has revealed a distressing fact in the housing world: Federal home-loan policies that promote “responsible, affordable mortgage credit access” for minorities are instead setting them up for an increased risk of failure. Sadly, structural barriers for people of color do exist in housing. Rather than being the result of inadvertent discrimination by lenders, it mostly stems from misguided government policies. At the state and local level, zoning and building codes have created a supply shortage that is most pronounced at lower price points, where minorities tend to buy and which helps to drive up prices. At the federal level, policymakers and advocacy groups have been trying to promote greater buying power for marginalized groups in a futile attempt to increase access. However, lowering lending standards or interest rates only works when there is ample supply. In today’s constrained market, the unintended consequence is that marginalized borrowers mainly bid against one another for scarce homes. The additional buying power is thus quickly capitalized into higher home prices, which means stretched budgets for marginalized borrowers. During economic hardship, this translates into higher default risk. A new analysis by the AEI Housing Center shows that because of these federal policies, today the single best predictor (per ZIP code) of a change in delinquency rate due to the pandemic has become the share of minority borrowers residing in it. The higher the minority share, the larger the increase in the delinquency rate. The outcome is a fundamental injustice that runs counter to the 1968 Fair Housing Act, which not only prohibits discrimination in housing, but legally requires federal agencies to further the goal of fair housing. These heightened delinquencies are occurring mostly in the same neighborhoods that were devastated a decade ago in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The only difference is that it is happening despite all the purported safeguards of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which stopped the most egregious underwriting practices, and the U.S. government securitizing about three in four of all mortgages. But there is a second issue. These affordable federal housing policies, which enable minorities to buy especially during a boom when houses are more expensive, expose them to greater default risk during a bust. This also creates greater home price volatility in less affluent communities — a phenomenon that is greatly attenuated in more affluent ones with less risky lending and greater borrower resources to fall back on. While it is often argued that buying a home early in life is the key to building wealth, it is when and where you buy that matters most. Ultimately, nothing strips wealth faster from borrowers of color than purchasing a home in high-risk neighborhoods late in a housing up-cycle.

House Down Payments Soar To 20 Year High As Banks Crack Down On New Loans -American homebuyers have to pony up even greater amounts of money for a down payment due to tightening credit standards and skyrocketing home prices.  According to Bloomberg, citing a new report from Attom Data Solutions, the median down payment for a single-family home is $20,775 for the third quarter, the most in at least two decades and up more than 69% from $12,325 a year earlier. Over the last year, the jump in the down payment cost outlines how lenders have become more cautious in these uncertain economic times.  It was also noted borrowers paid 6.6% of the median sale price of homes financed over the quarter, up from 4.7% a year earlier and the highest level since 2018. On average, borrowers were loaned around $275,000, the highest since 2000, up 24% from last year's third quarter.Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions, said, "down payments are rising at a time when lenders are tightening their guidelines."  Teta continued: "Lenders have grown more cautious to protect themselves from more delinquencies." A combination of outbound migration flows from cities and a record low 30-year mortgage rate below 3% ignited home prices in rural communities.  Bloomberg noted, "mortgage companies are raking in cash amid the pandemic, earning hefty margins. At the same time, consumers flood in to buy homes or refinance existing loans to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates."   A senior loan officer at Freedom Mortgage, Lewis Sogge, said, "2020 has been a record-breaking year for the volume of new loans and refinances as consumers take advantage of record-low mortgage rates." Lenders are becoming increasingly worried about borrowers as the virus pandemic's reemergence has resulted in states and cities reimposing strict social distancing measures.  Worried about delinquencies and a possible double-dip recession that would result in job loss, lenders at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have tightened terms for borrowers. Loan officers at the bank were recently put on notice to limit jumbo loans to 70% of the sale price for co-ops and condos in Manhattan.  Besides real estate, a similar picture was seen for tightening credit standards of consumer loans.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2020. .. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 79 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago.  “30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped seven basis points to 2.92 percent, another record low in MBA’s survey. Weekly mortgage rate volatility has emerged again, as markets respond to fiscal policy uncertainty and a resurgence in COVID-19 cases around the country. The decline in rates ignited borrower interest, with applications for both home purchases and refinancing increasing on a weekly and annual basis,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Industry and Economic Forecasting. “The ongoing refinance wave has continued into November. Both the refinance index and the share of refinance applications were at their highest levels since April, as another week of lower rates drew more convntional loan borrowers into the market.”The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to a survey low of 2.92 percent from 2.99 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.   The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity. But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.  The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 19% year-over-year unadjusted.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 7.0% year-over-year in September -- S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Soared to 7% in September: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.0% annual gain in September, up from 5.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2%, up from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% year-over-year gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month.Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in September. Phoenix led the way with an 11.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 10.1% increase and San Diego with a 9.5% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2020 versus the year ending August 2020....The National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in September. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. In September, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, and after seasonal adjustment. Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,”  The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 6.2% and 6.6%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in September. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have September data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in September than they had done in the 12 months ended in August.“A trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019 but was interrupted in May and June, as COVID-related restrictions produced modestly-decelerating price gains. Our three monthly readings since June of this year have all shown accelerating growth in home prices, and September’s results are quite strong. The last time that the National Composite matched September’s 7.0% growth rate was more than six years ago, in May 2014. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

 Home Prices In Every Major City Jump More Than Double The Fed's Inflation Target - While various Fed speakers are vowing this week that there will be no rate hikes until at least 2023 or 2024, the Fed may be surprised to learn that if it were to broaden its definition of inflation, it would find it is quite ample already. One month ago, we looked at the housing market which we said was in the middle of a buying "frenzy." Today's Case-Shiller data for September confirmed this, with the 20-City Composite index surging at a stunning 6.6% Y/Y more than 1% higher than August (and smashing expectations of a 5.3% print), and the highest in 30 months. But the real shocker was looking at the component cities that make up the composite index. Here, not only is the housing bubble clearly back in certain Western cities such as Phoenic, Seattle, San Diego and LA, all of which posted a 9.5% or higher increase in annual home prices, but more remarkably even the lowest increase - that of New York - was no less than 4.3% (up from 2.8% just last month). This means that every major US city saw home price increases that were more than double the Fed's stated 2% inflation target (although under the new Average Inflation Targeting, the Fed's so-called target is a fluid number and can be whatever the Fed decides it is). But why should we - or central bankers for that matter - care about soaring home prices? For the answer look no further than New Zealand, whose central bank just 6 weeks ago warned that negative rates could be coming, yet where home prices have soared so much, overnight the Finance Minister Grant Robertson sent a letter to the central bank expressing concerns over how low rates have stoked home prices, and asking the RBNZ to include home prices to its monetary policy remit in order to halt the staggering surge in prices and force the central bank to consider tightening financial conditions only due to out of control home prices. The result, as we reported earlier, was a surge in the New Zealand dollar as odds for a rate cut in 2021 collapsed and the market is on the verge of pricing in a rate hike. Is this relevant for the US? Well, if one takes Yellen at her word that she is worried about wealth inequality, what other more relevant sector is there to focus on boosting the net worth of lower and middle classes than housing, and specifically making it more affordable so that more Americans can afford buying a home rather than be stuck as renters all their lives. Of course, if this becomes a concern for the Fed, and considering the unprecedented spike in home prices in recent months, the first rate hike will take place not in 2024 but some time in 2021 as the Fed continues to inject an unprecedented 0.6% of GDP into the market every single month, ensuring that the housing bubble gets bigger with every passing month.

 FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.7% in September, Record High The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for September. Here is the opening of the press release: U.S. house prices rose 7.8 percent from the third quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 1.7 percent from August.​“House prices recorded their strongest quarterly gain in the history of the FHFA HPI purchase-only series in the third quarter of 2020," said Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics at FHFA. "Relative to a year ago, prices were up 7.8 percent during the quarter – the fastest year-over-year rate of appreciation since 2006. Monthly data indicate that prices continued to accelerate during the quarter, reaching 9.1 percent in September, as demand continues to outpace the supply of homes available for sale." The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

New Home Sales at 999,000 Annual Rate in October - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 999 thousand.  The previous three months were revised up. Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised September rate of 1,002,000, but is 41.5 percent above the October 2019 estimate of 706,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.This is the third highest sales rate since 2006 (just below the last two months).The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.  The months of supply was unchanged in October at 3.3 months from 3.3 months in September.  The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low is 3.3 months in September and October 2020.This is below the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal). "The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 284,000. This represents a supply of 3.6 months at the current sales rate." Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.The inventory of completed homes for sale is low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is lower than normal.The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In October 2020 (red column), 80 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in October.The all time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010. This was slightly above expectations and sales in the three previous months were revised up. I'll have more later today.

A few Comments on October New Home Sales -- New home sales for October were reported at 999,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up.  This was below consensus expectations of 975,000, and was the third highest sales rate since 2006 (behind August and September - that were both revised up). Clearly low mortgages rates, low existing home supply, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a strong increase in sales.  Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too. Earlier: New Home Sales at 999,000 Annual Rate in October.  This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  New home sales were up 41.5% year-over-year (YoY) in October.   Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 20.6% (This is even above my optimistic forecast for 2020!).   And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed - even if the home hasn't been started - new home sales are not limited by inventory (except if no lots are available).  Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low (like right now) - and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now).

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.6% Year-over-year -- From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 21 November: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy continued to slip further from previous weeks, according to the latest data from STR through 21 November.
15-21 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
• Occupancy: 41.2% (-32.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$88.54 (-29.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$36.45 (-52.2%)
Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph below - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This suggests no improvement over the last 10 weeks. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year. Note that there was little pickup in business travel that usually happens in the Fall.

U.S. Consumer Spending Grows for Sixth Straight Month, Albeit Slower – WSJ -The U.S. economy is recovering at a sturdy but slowing pace heading into the holidays.Consumers stepped up their spending by a brisk 0.5% in October, down from a gain of 1.2% the month before, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Factory orders for long-lasting goods rose a solid 1.3%, in part because businesses shelled out more for long-term projects, the agency said. Sales of newly built homes slipped last month but remained near the highest level in almost 14 years.All pointed to an economy continuing to regain ground lost during the spring coronavirus lockdowns and other restrictions, even if the expansion has slowed since the third quarter’s rapid rebound.The good news was tempered by reports Wednesday of rising layoffs, falling income and declining consumer confidence.New applications for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose to 778,000 last week, the second straight weekly increase after declining since the summer, the Labor Department said. Household income fell 0.7% last month, as temporary federal aid programs for unemployed workers faded, the Commerce Department said. A measure of consumer confidence released Wednesday showed that Americans have become more worried about the months ahead, according to a University of Michigan survey.Those shifts could cause many households to rein in spending this winter, which would impede the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S.

Personal Income decreased 0.7% in October, Spending increased 0.5% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income decreased $130.1 billion (0.7 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $134.8 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $70.9 billion (0.5 percent).  Real DPI decreased 0.8 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent. The PCE price index was unchanged from September. The PCE price index excluding food and energy was also unchanged.  The October PCE price index increased 1.2 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent year-over-year.  The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was much lower than expected, and the increase in PCE was above expectations. Note the red line for Q3 (the quarterly level of PCE). This was 3.3% below the Q4 2019 level for PCE. Also note: If real PCE in November and December are just at the same level as in October, PCE will increase at a 6% annual rate in Q4.

 Real Disposable Income Per Capita in October - With the release of this morning's report on October Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.81% month-over-month change in disposable income is unchanged when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.70% nominal and 0.53% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 5.72% nominal and 4.48% real. Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of the CARES Act and the COVID pandemic, a major spike is seen in April 2020. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by the CARES Act stimulus. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 108% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 43.2%.

 US Consumer Confidence Slumps In November As Hope Fades -After a mixed bag in October (present situation up, future hope down), analysts expected The Conference Board to report a worsening in overall consumer confidence in November (despite soaring stocks), and in fact things were worse than expected.Headline consumer confidence slipped to 96.1 from 100.9 (well below the 98.0 expectation) as expectations tumbled from 98.2 to 89.5 and the present situation dropped modestly from an upwardly revised 106.2 to 105.9.If stock markets are forward-looking then this should be worrisome...Interestingly, despite the drop in confidence, buying expectations rose for homes, cars, and major appliances, and expectations for rising incomes also rose modestly.

Consumer Confidence Decreases in November - The headline number of 96.1 was a decrease from the final reading of 101.4 for October. Today's number was below theInvesting.com consensus of 98.0. “Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.” Read more  The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: November Final Mostly Unchanged - The November Final came in at 76.9, down 4.9 from the October Final. Investing.com had forecast 77.0. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 10.8 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 9.8 percent below the geometric mean. Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: Consumer sentiment was unchanged in late November--a difference of just 0.1 points from mid-month--although there was a significant decline in the Expectations component which was offset by more favorable assessments of current economic conditions. Importantly, the November data were less optimistic than last month due to the resurgence in covid infections and deaths as well as partisan shifts due to the outcome of the presidential election. For the first time since Trump entered office, Democrats rather than Republicans held a more optimistic economic outlook (see the chart). The steep rise in covid infections had a greater impact on Democrats as 59% of Democrats reported that the coronavirus had changed their lives to a great extent compared with just 36% among Republicans. In the months ahead, if infections and deaths rise as anticipated, further declines in optimism are likely. The anticipated declines, however, will be tempered by the approval of several vaccines by the end of the year. The approval of vaccines will heighten concerns about vaccination priorities, especially when accompanied by the expected increase in deaths in the next several months. These events are likely to promote more closures and stay-at-home orders in addition to mandatory masks and social distancing. Widespread closures would incur a heavy toll on the entire economy and cause escalating hardships among some households. A delay in federal aid until next year would allow great harm and permanent damage to occur to many firms, local governments, and households. [More....] See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

November Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Second Straight Month-to-Month Decline" - From Wards: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast for Second Straight Month-to-Month Decline (pay content)  This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red).  Sales have bounced back from the April low, but will likely be down around 7% year-over-year in November. The Wards forecast of 15.7 million SAAR, would be down about 3% from October. This would put sales in 2020, through November, down about 16% compared to the same period in 2019.

Guitar Center, Largest US Retailer Of Music Instruments, Files For Bankruptcy - Back in May, Guitar Center - the largest U.S. retailer of music instruments and equipment - dodged bankruptcy after missing interest payments on a group of bonds. At the time, the retailer was able to work out a deal with bondholders that allowed it to preserve its cash while it tried to survive the disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic. But analysts expected more restructuring down the road, and in recent weeks media reports had pointed to an inevitable bankruptcy filing.On Saturday, the clock for Guitar Center, which began in 1959 as a store selling home organs in Hollywood, finally ran out when the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as music lovers moved their shopping online during the coronavirus pandemic.As part of a pre-packaged bankruptcy filing the retailer negotiated to have a total of $375 million in debtor-in-possession financing from its existing lenders and announced its intention to raise $335 million in new senior secured notes, the company said in a statement. The Plan is intended to allow Guitar Center and its related brands (including Music & Arts, Musician’s Friend, Woodwind Brasswind and AVDG) to continue to operate in the normal course while the transaction is implemented. As a result of the Plan, Guitar Center will continue to meet its financial obligations to vendors, suppliers, and employees, and intends to make payments in full to these parties without interruption in the ordinary course of business.

A Covid-19 Vaccine Could Unleash Pent-Up Demand, Bringing Along Inflation – WSJ - Inflation could be poised for a comeback. Some economists are starting to embrace the idea that a prospective Covid-19 vaccine could allow people to once again spend money on travel, restaurants and other services—and drive up prices in the U.S.That would be a change from the past 10 years, when inflation rarely hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite a strong economy and low unemployment. It would also test the central bank’s new framework, which calls for periods of inflation above that level after stretches, like the current one, when it has run below.The economy’s progress since the sharp, pandemic-induced recession in the spring hasmade forecasters more confident of a strong recovery once a vaccine enables people to resume their pre-pandemic lives.Airlines and hotels, which laid off thousands of workers and slashed prices at the start of the pandemic, could struggle to meet the surge in demand, sending prices higher. And city rents, which dropped as people hunkered down, could start creeping up again as they look at alternatives.Likewise, the March coronavirus relief bill, which sent direct payments to households and increased unemployment aid, gave people more cash—and much of it has yet to be spent, as suggested by a relatively high savings rate. Those payments will contribute to pushing the federal debt to 98% of gross domestic product this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the highest since the end of World War II. That also should cause prices to rise since there is more money sloshing through the economy. All this could push up the price index for personal-consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s closely watched measure of inflation. Annual inflation by that measure stood at 1.4% in October, shy of the central bank’s 2% target.

PCE Price Index: October Headline & Core --The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays for October was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was unchanged month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.18% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 and 2019.The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:"The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement here

U.S. Economic Activity Picks Up on Postelection Lift, Vaccine Results – WSJ The U.S. economy continues to recover from the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic, according to business surveys that show services and manufacturing activity growing despite a rising number of infections. The U.S. performance contrasts with surveys showing the European economy is set for a fresh contraction in the final quarter of 2020, as lockdowns aimed at containing the coronavirus have led to a sharp decline in activity in the dominant services sector. Data firm IHS Markit said Monday its composite index of U.S. business activity, which covers both the services and manufacturing sectors, rose to 57.9 in November from 56.3 in October. The new reading, a preliminary estimate for this month, represented the strongest rate of growth for U.S. business activity since March 2015, IHS Markit said. A reading above 50.0 indicates that activity is increasing, while a reading below points to a decline in activity. An increase in new orders helped drive the overall boost in activity for both services providers and manufacturers, while business confidence also improved, according to IHS Markit. Services firms expanded their workforces in November to keep up with stronger demand, although manufacturing job creation slowed, the surveys showed. The data were compiled between Nov. 12 and 20, and offered a look at how U.S. services and manufacturing firms were faring right after the presidential election amid reports of progress from several companies working to develop a coronavirus vaccine. “Expectations about the year ahead have surged to the most optimistic for over six years, reflecting the combination of a postelection lift to confidence and encouraging news that vaccines may allow a return to more normal business conditions in the not too distant future,” said Chris Williamson, IHS Markit’s chief business economist. Still, a surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S. poses a fresh challenge for the economic recovery. Job-market growth has shown signs of slowing and some states and localities have reinstated restrictions aimed at combating the virus’s spread.

 Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 1.3% in October The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $3.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $240.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up six consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $77.1 billion. Download full PDF The latest new orders number at 1.3% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com 0.9% estimate. The series is down 0.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 1.3% MoM, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%. The core measure is up 4.0% YoY. If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental "core", the latest number is down 0.4% MoM and up 7.3% YoY. Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 0.7% MoM and up 6.2% YoY. For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.

U.S. core capital goods orders beat expectations in October    - New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in October, but momentum is slowing in line with expectations for slower economic growth in the fourth quarter. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.7% last month. These so-called core capital goods orders surged 1.9% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders increasing 0.5%. Core capital goods orders rose 0.2% year-on-year in October. Orders last month were supported by demand for electrical equipment, appliances and components, computers and electronic products, primary metals and fabricated metal products. But orders for machinery fell. Shipments of core capital goods jumped 2.3% last month. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement. They rose 0.7% in September. Business investment on equipment rebounded strongly in the third quarter after five straight quarterly declines. Economists expect slower economic growth after a historic pace of expansion in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 33.1% rate in the July-September quarter after contracting at a 31.4% pace in the second quarter, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter are below a 5% rate. Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, increased 1.3% in October after racing up 2.1% in September. Durable goods orders were lifted by a 1.2% increase in orders for transportation equipment, which followed a 3.3% jump in September. Orders for motor vehicles and parts fell 3.2%. Orders for civilian aircraft increased 38.8%. There had been no civilian aircraft orders for three straight months.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Broadly Positive in November - Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell to 15 in November from 29 in October but still indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.  Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.  Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview: Reports from Fifth District manufacturers were broadly positive in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite fell from 29 in October to 15 in November, but remained firmly in expansionary territory, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — had positive readings. Manufacturers reported improvement in local business conditions, but the spending indexes softened somewhat. Survey participants were optimistic about the future, expecting growth to continue in the coming months. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 778,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending November 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 778,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 742,000 to 748,000. The 4-week moving average was 748,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,500 from 742,000 to 743,500.  This does not include the 311,675 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 319,694 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Continued claims decreased to 6,037,690 (SA) from 6,452,002 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note: There are an additional 9,147,753 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 8,681,647 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  An additional 4,509,284 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 4,376,847 the previous week. These last two programs are set to expire on December 26th. This was worse than expected.

Unemployment claims rise for second week in a row: Millions will lose federal unemployment benefits in December unless Senate Republicans act EPI Blog - The data show that another 1.1 million people applied for UI benefits last week, including 778,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 312,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The 1.1 million who applied for UI last week was an increase of 22,000 from the prior week’s figures—the second week in a row that initial claims have risen. Further, last week was the 36th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. (If that comparison is restricted to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession—initial claims last week were still greater than the second-worst week of the Great Recession.)Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits, but this crisis has gone on much longer than that. That means many workers are exhausting their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 299,000, from 6.4 million to 6.1 million.For now, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. However, PEUC is set to expire on December 26th (as is PUA—more on these expirations below).In the latest data available for PEUC, (the week ending November 7) PEUC rose by 132,000, from 4.4 million to 4.5 million, offsetting only about a third of the 414,000 decline in continuing claims f or regular state benefits for the same week. Why didn’t PEUC rise more? Many of the roughly 2 million workers who were on UI before the recession began, or who are in states with less than the standard 26 weeks of regular state benefits, are now exhausting PEUC benefits, at the same time others are taking it up. More than 1.5 million workers have exhausted PEUC so far (see column C43 in form ETA 5159 for PEUC here). In some states, if workers exhaust PEUC, they can get on yet another program, Extended Benefits (EB). However, in the latest data, just 601,000 workers were on EB. That’s far less than half of those who have exhausted PEUC. Most are left with nothing.  Figure A shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data are for November 7). The total number of workers on UI ticked up in the latest data, even with the exhaustions we’ve seen so far. This is a wake-up call.

Note: November Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 93,000 Temporary Census Workers -The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the October reference week, October 11th - 17th, there were 99,490 decennial Census temporary workers. As of the November reference week, November 8th - 14th, there were 6,464 temp workers.That is a decrease of 93,026 temporary jobs. In August, the employment report showed a gain of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, boosting the headline number.In September, the employment report showed a decrease of 41,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, reducing the headline number. In October, the employment report showed a decrease of 147,311 temporary Census employment.

Disney to lay off 4,000 more employees than it initially reported - The Walt Disney Co. is planning to layoff about 4,000 more employees than it initially reported to the federal government because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.In total, the company expects to layoff 32,000 employees in the upcoming months, according to its U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) report filed Wednesday. The entertainment company, which employs 203,000 people worldwide, includes media networks, studio entertainment, parks, other experiences.In the filing, Disney revealed its plans to terminate the additional employees, mostly in parks, experiences and products."Due to the current climate, including COVID-19 impacts, and changing environment in which we are operating, the company has generated efficiencies in its staffing, including limiting hiring to critical business roles, furloughs and reductions-in-force," Disney said in the filing.About 155,000 employees work in Disney's parks, resorts and retail stores worldwide, according to the report. The company had announced in September that it would layoff 28,000 workers, mostly from the business sector. The job cuts will take place through the first half of fiscal year 2021.Disney furlough more than 120,000 employees during the initial months of the pandemic, continuing to provide medical benefits. Disney Cruise Line sailings have remained suspended since March 14. The company also closed resorts and parks in the U.S. in March and reopened them in July. Some employees were able to return to work as government regulations were lifted but with limited operations.The company has incurred about $1 billion in additional costs from COVID-19 safety requirements and modifications, according to the report. "With the unknown duration of COVID-19 and yet to be determined timing of the phased reopening of certain businesses, it is not possible to precisely estimate the impact of COVID-19 on our operations in future quarters," Disney said in the filing. "The reopening or closure of our businesses is dependent on applicable government requirements, which vary by location, are subject to ongoing changes, which could result from increasing COVID-19 cases."

 Wisconsin Foxconn plant reaches deal to assemble Google server components Volume 0% A Foxconn manufacturing plant in Wisconsin touted by President Trump is reportedly planning to assemble server components for Google, giving use to space that sat idle for years. According to anonymous sources who spoke to Bloomberg, production is expected to begin in the first few months of 2021. Bloomberg’s unidentified sources said Foxconn won the contract with Google because it was the only company able to establish surface-mount technology lines in the U.S. Ground was first broken for the Wisconsin facility in 2018. At the time, the plan was to set up an LCD-manufacturing complex that would employ 13,000 people and create a new Silicon Valley of the Midwest. Trump held the facility up as a win for American jobs and the economy. However, an investigative piece published by the Verge in October, revealed bungled business plans and multiple moves made just to keep up appearances. The company reportedly failed to hire enough employees to qualify for state tax credits two years in a row and in one instance appeared to have hired hundreds of people before the end of year in order to meet requirements before beginning layoffs in January. Local and state governments spent hundreds of millions of dollars creating infrastructure for the company’s facility that has yet to be utilized, according to the tech news outlet, which added that Taiwan-based Foxconn has promised facilities that never materialized or were less-than-promised in other countries as well. Bloomberg reports that this year space was used to produce face masks and ventilators this year. In its exposé, the Verge noted that the plant’s Midwest location may not have been the most advantageous for LCD-manufacturing, as the glass suppliers would have required further subsidies from the government to move to Wisconsin. But Bloomberg reports that the plant's location would now be a boon to Google as it seeks out lucrative contracts in the server-dependent cloud business. As Bloomberg reports, the new contract with Foxconn will help Google establish its presence in the Midwest, where Amazon and Microsoft currently dominate. An active American facility may also help Foxconn secure U.S. government contracts, notes the new outlet, as Washington heightens scrutiny over Chinese-based electronic supply chains.

A month after being hired at suburban Detroit Fiat Chrysler plant, worker dies from COVID-19 -- A Fiat Chrysler worker died Saturday morning after contracting COVID-19 at the Warren Truck Assembly Plant (WTAP) in suburban Detroit. The worker, identified as Stevie Brown, was only hired into the plant as a temporary part-time employee last month. The tragic death points to the deadly conditions that now exist in auto factories and other industrial facilities throughout Michigan and other midwestern US states.Workers began circulating messages and posts on social media over the weekend and began demanding information about their coworker’s death. However, management and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union remained silent and the media did not report any information. On Monday, the death was confirmed by the wife of the deceased worker. In a post on the WTAP Local 14 Facebook page she wrote, “My wonderful husband, Stevie Brown, started working at the FCA Mound/8 Mile plant (Warren Trucking) in Oct 2020. Now he no longer here, lost his life to Covid-19 on Sat. Nov 21, 2020 after two weeks in this place!!! Be safe and don’t become a statistic. His loving wife.” Coworkers say Brown worked in the factory’s paint shop, in a section known as the blackout area. The paint shop has been the scene of several COVID-19 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. By April 28, at least four workers had died in the plant, which employs 2,600 workers. At least one other worker has died at the adjacent Warren Stamping plant. Neither the UAW nor FCA has issued any public statements about Brown’s death. According to one worker, eight teams with six to eight workers each have been sent home due to the virus since September 28. This is being systematically covered up by the company, with the full support of the UAW. Management has not provided any information on the spread of infections in the plant. “All we were told is the paint shop was being fogged for COVID-19 on Sunday last week,” said one worker.

 As virus surges in North Dakota, Fargo food distribution workers strike over lack of COVID-19 protections - Seventy-five workers at food distributor Cash-Wa in Fargo, North Dakota are continuing a strike over health and safety issues as COVID-19 rampages through the state, which recently reported the highest death rate for any state or country in the world. The workers warn that inadequate safety protections risk turning the Fargo warehouse, operated by Cash-Wa, into a major vector for disease transmission. The workers, members of Teamsters Local 120, walked out November 18. They had been working without a contract since August. Local 120 claims management has been knowingly violating CDC guidelines. Workers walked out after over 10 percent of the Fargo workforce tested positive for COVID-19. Strikers are calling for adequate screening measures, proper training of workers in cleaning, and adequate safety protections, including dividers in break areas. The drivers and warehouse workers deliver food to area schools and restaurants. The walkout could affect facilities in South Dakota, Minnesota and North Dakota, including Sioux Falls schools as well as Dairy Queen, Subway, Taco John’s and Pizza Ranch locations in the three states. Cash-Wa Food Services of Americ is a multi-state company based in Kearney, Nebraska. It bills itself as the eighteenth-largest Broadline Foodservice Distribution company in the US, with facilities in Fargo, Kearney and Aberdeen, South Dakota. Fargo is the only unionized location. The strike had been initially set for November 19, but workers began setting up pickets the day before. Cash-Wa has been attempting to continue operations using management personnel. According to a statement by Local 120 spokesman Brian Nowak, “We want them to advise our employees, give them proper instruction on how to handle this COVID virus. We don’t want this stuff going into restaurants and other facilities. We know that North Dakota is a hot spot right now, and it’s only going to get worse.” While North Dakota, along with other relatively rural areas, escaped the brunt of the initial wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths, that has now completely reversed. According to an analysis by the American Federation of Scientists, North Dakota has recently experienced the highest COVID-19 daily mortality rate in the world of any state or country. North Dakota is recording 18.2 daily deaths per 1 million people while neighboring South Dakota has 17.4 deaths per million, the third-highest rate in the world.

Scams led California to send COVID jobless benefits to Scott Peterson, death row inmates -- San Quentin inmate Scott Peterson, convicted of killing his wife and unborn son, was sent California unemployment benefits in recent months, according to a group of state and federal prosecutors who have been investigating fraud in the pandemic relief system administered by the state Employment Development Department. So was convicted serial killer Cary Stayner, who in 1999 murdered two women and two girls near Yosemite and now is jailed, near Peterson, on death row.Also allegedly approved for an unemployment debit card: Isauro Aguirre, sentenced to death in 2018 for the torture and death of 8-year-old Gabriel Fernandez.Nine district attorneys across California and a federal prosecutor on Tuesday made these allegations and called for Gov. Gavin Newsom to intervene to stop such unemployment swindling in California jails and prisons — which may involve tens of thousands of questionable claims totaling hundreds of millions of dollars — though they said they were uncertain if the high-profile claimants were victims of a scam or participants.Pat Harris, Peterson’s attorney, said he was “absolutely certain Scott was not involved, and any investigation will clear him.”The district attorneys called the situation “the most significant fraud on taxpayer funds in California history,” according to a letter obtained by The Times, describing crimes that involve identity theft of prisoners as well as alleged conspiracies by individual inmates and organized gangs to game the state system.“It is a manifest problem that cannot be ignored, and the governor needs to take steps to address it,” said McGregor Scott, U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of California. The prosecutors contend that the fraud is preventable with systems such as those used by other states that check inmate data against unemployment claims. They asked Newsom to step in to “turn off the spigot” of payments to incarcerated people, contending that EDD’s response to their investigations has been “slow to nonexistent,” according to Sacramento County Dist. Atty. Anne Marie Schubert, who helped form and lead a task force on the issue.

Splitting 5 to 4, Supreme Court Backs Religious Challenge to Cuomo’s Virus Shutdown Order  — The Supreme Court late Wednesday nightbarred restrictions on religious services in New York that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo had imposed to combat the coronavirus. The vote was 5 to 4, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and the court’s three liberal members in dissent. The order was the first in which the court’s newest member, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, played a decisive role. The court’s ruling was at odds with earlier ones concerning churches in California and Nevada. In those cases, decided in May and July, the court allowed the states’ governors to restrict attendance at religious services. The Supreme Court’s membership has changed since then, with Justice Barrett succeeding Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died in September. The vote in the earlier cases was also 5 to 4, but in the opposite direction, with Chief Justice Roberts joining Justice Ginsburg and the other three members of what was then the court’s four-member liberal wing. In an unsigned opinion, the majority said Mr. Cuomo’s restrictions violated the First Amendment’s protection of the free exercise of religion. In a concurring opinion, Justice Neil M. Gorsuch said Mr. Cuomo had treated secular activities more favorably than religious ones. “It is time — past time — to make plain that, while the pandemic poses many grave challenges, there is no world in which the Constitution tolerates color-coded executive edicts that reopen liquor stores and bike shops but shutter churches, synagogues and mosques,” Justice Gorsuch wrote. The court’s order addressed two applications: one filed by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn, the other by two synagogues, an Orthodox Jewish organization and two individuals. The applications both said Mr. Cuomo’s restrictions violated constitutional protections for the free exercise of religion, and the one from the synagogues added that Mr. Cuomo had “singled out a particular religion for blame and retribution for an uptick in a societywide pandemic.” In a dissenting opinion on Wednesday, Chief Justice Roberts said the court had acted rashly. “Numerical capacity limits of 10 and 25 people, depending on the applicable zone, do seem unduly restrictive,” he wrote, adding, “It is not necessary, however, for us to rule on that serious and difficult question at this time.” In a second dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justice Elena Kagan, said Mr. Cuomo’s restrictions were sensible.  “States may not discriminate against religious institutions, even when faced with a crisis as deadly as this one. But those principles are not at stake today,” she wrote.

 Coming utility bill problem will impact (as in, raise bills for) everyone --For years, residents who have struggled to pay their utility bills have turned to the state’s low-income heating and electric assistance program, known as LIHEAP.Considering the COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread economic suffering, there could be an assumption that applications to the program would have increased tremendously since March. In reality, the opposite is true.Ralph Izzo, the chair and CEO of Public Service Enterprise Group, said application to LIHEAP are way down — a scenario that will have far-reaching financial implications for all residents in the state. The situation has become dire enough that state Sens. Steve Oroho (R-Sparta) and Joe Pennacchio (R-Montville) have sent a warning letter to Joseph Fiordaliso, the president of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, urging the BPU to take preemptive measures.“If these payments aren’t made, it will fall on the backs of ratepayers, and we don’t want them stuck holding the bill,” they wrote. “We need to come up with a plan now.”Izzo said he can only assume that many customers are confusing a moratorium on utility shutoffs with a feeling that those bills will be forgiven. Why else, he said, would residents pass on a chance for help? “I can’t figure any other reason why they would — because, if I thought a bill was going to come through, I would do all I can to keep it as low as possible,” Izzo told ROI-NJ. “We have tremendous empathy for people who are out of a job or had their hours reduced, and we’ll work with them to manage the situation. But don’t drop one of the most important mechanisms you have been using in the past.

 Layoffs leave New York City-area nursing homes unprepared as the pandemic intensifies - As the daily numbers of new coronavirus infections surpass their springtime highs, nursing homes in New York City and in the broader tri-state area are cutting staff. The Hebrew Home in the Riverdale neighborhood of the Bronx, one of the biggest facilities in the state, laid off 56 workers during the first week of November. A reason given for the layoffs is that 124 of the home’s residents had died during the spring. A decline in elective surgeries has also reduced the number of patients who come to the facility to recover. Clove Lakes Health Care and Rehabilitation Center in Staten Island was among the worst affected facilities in New York City during the pandemic’s previous peak. In a single month, 40 of the home’s residents died. Now, as the pandemic resurges in the New York City area, Clove Lakes has laid off more than 40 workers. The remaining employees worry that they could lose their jobs as well because of the continuing economic crisis. The situation at the Hebrew Home and Clove Lakes reflects regional and national trends. By May 20, the vacancy rate in New York’s nursing homes had increased from 8 percent to 21 percent. In neighboring New Jersey, which was another hot spot during the peak of the pandemic, about 33 percent of nursing home beds are unoccupied. Before the pandemic began, only 18 percent of beds were vacant. Many families are avoiding nursing homes now because they allowed so many residents to become infected and die during the spring. Owners have used the reduced occupancy rates to justify laying off workers. Even considering the lower occupancy rates, these nursing homes are understaffed, according to workers. An industry survey conducted in mid-November reveals that staffing is a major concern for most nonprofit providers of services to the aging. Approximately 73 percent of respondents have difficulty finding enough staff to cover scheduled shifts, according to the survey. In addition, 71 percent of providers are having difficulty recruiting new workers, and 65 percent have problems covering for workers who are on sick leave. Survey respondents included nursing homes, assisted living facilities, home health providers, and hospice and affordable housing communities. Across the country, nursing homes are in dire financial straits. In April, an industry-commissioned analysis delivered to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar estimated that the senior living industry is facing costs of between $40 billion and $57 billion during the next year. To maintain profits for their owners and shareholders, nursing homes will seek to reduce costs through merciless staff cuts. Workers will be thrust into the ranks of the unemployed, and facilities will be ill equipped to prevent or mitigate the forecast rise in infections and deaths.

 San Antonio Food Bank Doubles Amount Of People It Serves - Two Americas were visible on Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 30,000 for the first time. Simultaneously, hundreds of vehicles were snaked around a parking lot in Albuquerque, New Mexico, waiting in line at a local food bank.  This suggests the K-shaped economic recovery, one where the rich grow richer and the working-poor are crushed with job loss and insurmountable debts, is getting much worse by the month.  For more on the rapid reemergence of food bank lines, or what will be the new normal in a severely broken economy that is in desperate need of structural reform, Eric Cooper, CEO of the San Antonio Food Bank in Texas, on Tuesday, told CNBC's Shepard Smith that demand at his food bank has more than doubled this year.  "Pre-pandemic we fed about 60,00 people a week and now we're seeing about 120,000 per week, and most of those are new to the food bank, and have never had to ask for help before," Cooper told Smith during an interview on Tuesday evening.  He said, "today, we had a distribution that fed 2,000, and we have these distributions all the time." "Food banks around the country have seen this unprecedented demand, and we're just working as hard as we can to balance the private donations we get, with the public assistance to try to make sure people are fed," he explained. Cooper continued: "A child would miss ten meals in a week, and if a mom has two to three kids in school, she's now feeling the impact of the cost of that food at home, and without employment, kids are going hungry. We hear from schools that kids struggle with their education because they don't have access to good nutrition."

 'No end in sight': hunger surges in America amid a spiraling pandemic  -- Millions of Americans must rely on charity to put Thanksgivingdinner on the table this year, as hunger surges amid a devastating spiraling of the Covid-19 pandemic which the Trump administration has failed to get under control. In what is traditionally a season of celebration, less than half of US households with children feel “very confident” about having enough money to afford the food needed over the next month, according to the US Census Bureau’s latest pandemic survey. A staggering 5.6m households struggled to put enough food on the table in the past week. Families of color are suffering disproportionately with 27% of black and 23% of Latino respondents with children reported not having enough to eat sometimes or often over the past week – compared with 12% of white people.  Now, as states across the country contemplate new lockdowns to slow down the rampant spread and record hospitalizations, the unprecedented demand for food aid is on the rise, according to the Guardian’s latest snapshot survey:

• In Cleveland, 5,000 families showed up last Thursday for the pre-Thanksgiving drive-in distribution compared with 3,300 a week earlier and an average of 1,600 over the summer. Some 54% of the food distributed was for children and seniors. “We’re now seeing families who had an emergency fund but it’s gone and they’re at the end of their rope. We’re going to be doing this for a really long time, and that’s frankly terrifying given the impact hunger has on physical health, learning and development for children and parents’ stress,”
• Earlier this month, there were long lines in Dallas as the North Texas Food Bank provided groceries to just over 25,000 people – its busiest day on record. The food bank distributed 7,000 whole turkeys that day, and a total of about 600,000 pounds of food. “Hunger isn’t hidden any more,” said Trisha Cunningham, CEO of the food bank. “If it isn’t you, then this is your neighbor, this is your child’s classmate, this is your hairdresser.”
• In central Alabama, demand at the Grace Klein food pantry is up 20% since last month. “It could be the rumours of civil unrest or the rise in Covid cases driving demand, but people are living off this food,” said director Jenny Waltman. The pantry is currently serving about 12,000 people each week, compared with 2,500 a week before the pandemic. The 200 volunteers and staff are exhausted, said Waltman.
• The Food Bank of New York was forced to start doling out the Thanksgiving frozen turkeys well before the holiday. Demand had dipped slightly in August as public health restrictions were loosened and folks returned to work, but another lockdown is looming, and the lines are growing.
• In Chicago, the Lakeview pantry has provided groceries for 237% more people so far this year compared to 2019, with demand “ramping up again” after leveling off slightly over the summer, according to CEO Kellie O’Connell. “The pandemic has brought to light how normal wasn’t working for so many people, especially black and brown communities.”

 Stress in pregnancy may influence baby brain development - Infants' brains may be shaped by levels of stress their mother experiences during pregnancy, a study has revealed. Stress levels in mothers - measured by a hormone linked to anxiety and other health problems - is related to changes in areas of the infant brain associated with emotional development, the study suggests. Doctors say the findings highlight the urgent need for women to be better supported with their mental and physical health before and during pregnancy, and could help them spot mums and babies who need help. The experts add that pregnant women who feel stressed or unwell should seek help from their midwife or consultant and that with support, most health issues can be well managed in pregnancy. Maternal stress is known to influence the development of the child's behaviour and ability to regulate its emotions as it grows. This is usually measured by questionnaires, which are not always reliable. The new study is the first time that scientists have used an objective measure - levels of the hormone cortisol - in the mother to study links with baby brain development.

Florida Sheriff’s Office intelligence-gathering program labels student youth as future criminals - A Tampa Bay Times report released last week revealed a policing program in Pasco County, Florida, known for storing a secret list of young children and adolescents who display histories that supposedly predict criminal tendencies in adulthood. The police agency’s strategies for tracking youth shed light on the extraordinary lengths the department has gone to carry out repressive measures against underaged Pasco residents.According to the Pasco Sheriff’s Office internal intelligence manual, the agency collects a clandestine list of children it deems likely to “fall into a life of crime.” The factors that are set as standards for determining if a particular young person should be placed on the list include receiving D or F grades in school or being victims of child abuse in their homes. Other factors include data on students who have a significant truancy record or are sent into campus offices for disciplinary punishments.To assemble their lists, the Sheriff’s Office combines the data acquired from rosters for middle and high school students and combines their academic history with more-sensitive, personal records, which are protected by state and federal laws. These records are filtered through the state Department of Children and Families, who document or “flag” students who have witnessed household violence or experienced significant harm themselves. The intelligence manual claims that any one of these factors makes a child more likely to become a criminal.The Sheriff’s Office admitted publicly that at least 420 children are on the list. One of the more chilling components of the list collection is that the process is largely carried out in secret. The Sheriff’s Office does not inform the children or their parents that the children have been targeted or about their designation. More than 30,000 students in most of the middle and high schools in Pasco County are analyzed to assess how at-risk each is for becoming a criminal. Even school officials are not made privy to the details of the draconian strategies being employed by the police agency. Pasco County Superintendent Kurt Browning told the Times that he was unaware of the methodology and specific details the Sheriff’s Office was using for recording school data to determine future criminals. Principals at two Pasco High Schools also reported being unaware of the program. The Department of Children and Families refused to answer the Times when asked if the department knew that its data was being delivered to the police agency’s system.

 Honestie Hodges, Whose Handcuffing Changed Police Policy, Is Dead at 14 – NYTimes -Honestie Hodges, who was handcuffed by the police outside her home in Grand Rapids, Mich., when she was 11, a frightening incident that drew outrage and national headlines in 2017, died on Sunday. She was 14.Her death, at the Helen DeVos Children’s Hospital in Grand Rapids, was caused by Covid-19, her grandmother Alisa Niemeyer wrote in a post on the website GoFundMe.The incident occurred on Dec. 6, 2017. Honestie had stepped out the back door of her home with her mother and another family member to go to the store when they were confronted by police officers with their guns drawn.“Put your hands on top of your—,” an officer ordered them before he was interrupted by Honestie’s mother screaming, “She is 11 years old, sir!”“Stop yelling!” the officer responded, as recorded by an officer’s body camera. He ordered Honestie to walk backward toward him with her hands up. A second officer grabbed her arms, pulled them behind her back and handcuffed her. Honestie shouted, “No, No, No!” pleading with the officers not to place the cuffs on her. The police, who said they had been searching for a 40-year-old woman in connection with a stabbing, removed the handcuffs after several minutes. The incident caused a widespread uproar that led to a soul-searching within the Grand Rapids Police Department. In a news conference, the police chief at the time, David Rahinsky, said that “listening to the 11-year-old’s response makes my stomach turn; it makes me physically nauseous.” He retired in 2019. None of the officers were disciplined because they had not violated any departmental policies, Mr. Rahinsky wrote in a statement at the time. Nonetheless, the department acknowledged that the officers had made a mistake in how they handled the child.

Massive spread of COVID-19 in Kentucky schools and death of 15-year-old girl prompts statewide school closures - The death from COVID-19 of a 15-year-old girl in Ballard County, Kentucky, coinciding with a massive spread of the pandemic, has prompted the closing of in-person instruction in all of the state’s public and private schools. Kentucky’s Democratic Governor Andy Beshear issued the executive order to close schools last week, as the number of COVID-19 cases statewide is growing exponentially, with 3,869 new cases Thursday. Beshear admited that almost 10,000 K-12 students and 2,000 faculty members are presently in quaratine or isolation across Kentucky. At a press conference announcing the closures, he said, “This virus at its level right now is and will overwhelm each and every one of our schools if we do not take action.” The belated decision could not save Alexa Rose Veit, 15, who had Down Syndrome and just last year had been successfully treated for leukemia. Alexa died November 15 after first feeling ill at Ballard County Memorial High School. All Kentucky middle and high schools will move to remote learning until at least January 4, and only elementary schools in counties that have experienced fewer than 25 cases per 100,000 people and are following health guidelines will be able to reopen December 7, according to the Governor’s executive order. The COVID-19 surge that claimed the life of Alexa also impacted many of her close relatives, with her mother testing positive for COVID-19 at the same time and being hospitalized. Alexa died the day her mother was released from the hospital. Her older sister had previously recovered from COVID-19, and both her grandparents have since tested positive and been hospitalized, according to media reports. The death of Alexa and the massive spread of the virus through Kentucky schools underscores the reality that schools are major vectors for the spread of COVID-19. A report by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) found that as of November 12 there have been 1.04 million confirmed COVID-19 cases nationwide among children, accounting for 11.5 percent of all infections in the US. “We have got to come to the realization that this is real. This isn’t political, it’s not something that ‘has always been here’ it is real. We must start taking the precautions seriously.”

Two Alabama teachers die from COVID-19 as governor vows to keep schools and businesses open - Over the past two weeks, the rate of COVID-19 infections across Alabama has increased by over 50 percent, with teachers and other school employees representing a significant number of these cases. In one Alabama school district, Hoover City School, two district employees have died within the past week after contracting the virus. On November 21, Hoover City Schools Superintendent Kathy Murphy announced that two district employees had died after being diagnosed with COVID-19. Like most public education officials in the state, Murphy refused to name the employees or even the schools in which they worked, citing phony concerns for privacy. Hoover City Schools is one of many school districts in the state that have witnessed a sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases in the past several weeks. Many Alabama school districts all but scuttled remote learning efforts after the first nine-week grading period, during which staffing inadequacies and subpar technology strained students, parents, and educators alike. Meager and non-standardized mitigation efforts, such as staggered school weeks or shortened days, were abandoned. According to Alabama’s K-12 COVID-19 Dashboard, which lags by about a week, at least 48 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Hoover City Schools as of November 20, adding to a total of over 2,261 cases in schools statewide for the same time period. Hoover City Schools is not the only district where Alabama teachers have died after contracting COVID-19 since August. In September, 47-year-old special education teacher Leo Davidovich, of the St. Clair County School District, died after a month-long battle with COVID-19 and an opportunistic bacterial infection. The administration of Odenville Middle School, where Davidovich worked, announced his death on Facebook “with great sadness.” However, the administration’s professed sadness over Davidovich’s death did not translate into meaningful efforts to protect other teachers or switch to fully remote learning. The back-to-school policies implemented across Alabama have not just affected teachers, but also their extended families. In October, two Alabama public school teachers anonymously told Alabama Political Reporter that they lost elderly family members to COVID-19 after coming down with the virus themselves. Both teachers emphasized that they brought the virus home to their families from schools where there are no viable sanitation or mitigation policies.

 Thousands of US college students return home for Thanksgiving amid surging pandemic - Hundreds of thousands of college students have returned home for Thanksgiving this week as new cases of COVID-19 continue to surge in nearly every state. Only three states—Vermont, Maine and Hawaii—remain below 20 new cases per 100,000 daily and several states are pushing the limits of their hospital capacities. After the disastrous decision by administrators at more than 1,900 colleges to reopen their campuses to in-person learning this fall led to hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases, countless students are bringing the coronavirus back home with them. Health officials are warning that even with a negative test, travelers may still transmit the virus. As the US set a record for hospitalizations for the 16th day in a row, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a former White House medical advisor, has warned that Thanksgiving could be the “mother of all super spread events.” More than 2,200 COVID-19 deaths were reported in the US on Wednesday—making it the highest one-day coronavirus death toll the country has reported since early May. The rampant spread of the virus in all parts of the country poses a serious threat to the health and safety of students and their families. While many schools have planned to switch to remote learning after the Thanksgiving holiday, even this minor provision will be inadequate. A survey by the New York Times has found that there have been 321,000 cases at 1,900 colleges and universities and at least 80 deaths since the beginning of March. Even this considerable number of infections is likely an understatement considering the propensity for young people to be asymptomatic and the chronic lack of testing at many schools. Schools across the country brought hundreds of thousands of students together in densely populated campuses this fall, hundreds of which have recorded cases numbering over 100. Now students are rushing to make it back home for the holiday as their campuses close amidst major outbreaks. Thousands of University of Wisconsin students rushed to get tested before flying home to be with their families for the next several weeks. Many have no choice but to go home. At Ohio State University, where more than 4,700 students have tested positive this fall, thousands more will return home for Thanksgiving before returning for in-person classes on January 18. Leading public health officials have warned against traditional Thanksgiving celebrations in the US, instead urging people to stay home and celebrate only with members of the same household. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also recommended last week that people should not travel for Thanksgiving. In this context, colleges which are sending students home for the holiday will be going against every guidance from health officials.

College Presidents Fail to Mobilize to Protect Students from Covid-19 - America’s Covid-19 debacle can be, in one telling, traced to a failure of leadership, as for example in The New York Times headline: “Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus,” with the deck: “The roots of the nation’s current inability to control the pandemic can be traced to mid-April, when the White House embraced overly rosy projections to proclaim victory and move on.” The nation’s failure, then, is Trump’s failure. (As a corollary, all we need do to succeed is replace Trump). But could leadership failure be more general? To find out, I thought I would examine mobilization by university leadership in the Covid-19 crisis; specifically, University Presidents. University Presidents are by definition leaders[1], andvery well paid to be. University Presidents, or at least administrators, are also, at least if conservative commentary is to be believed, are more liberal than average. Hence, they would be the least likely to be swayed by Trump, and therefore likely to exercise leadership collectively to protect students from covid[2] regardless of what Trump said or did. University Presidents collectively also have, if not in their gift, at least under their influence, enormous resources of every kind: scientific, engineering, medical, business. If ever there was an opportunity to mobilize, it was here. I won’t assess the success or failures of university leadership; I am simply asking whether or not they mobilized[3]. In fact, university Presidents — leaders, let us remember — did not mobilize to protect students from Covid. Frankly, I never thought they did, because I do try to pay attention to these things, but to prove it to myself, I went through 33 pages of headines for the Coronavirus tag in the Chronicle of Higher Education, all the way back to the first entry on February 24 (“Coronavirus-Themed Party at Albany Draws Criticism“). No headlines like “University Presidents form Task Force to Address Covid Crisis,” or “Ivy League Presidents form Testing Consortium for Student Health Centers,” or even “Land Grant University Presidents Sponsor Webinar on Covid and Partying.” Nothing.  As it turns out, protecting students from Covid was never a top priority for University Presidents. The American Council on Education (“a membership organization that mobilizes [ha] the higher education community to shape effective public policy and foster innovative, high-quality practice”) has published periodic surveys on what University Presidents consider pressing issues.

Zoom cancels meetings at several universities on Zoom censorship - Over the last month, Zoom, the widely-used online conferencing platform, has been facing tremendous backlash against its recent censorship of online meetings at several prominent universities. In late September, the company shut down an online seminar at San Francisco State University (SFSU) titled “Whose Narratives? Gender, Justice and Resistance: A Conversation with Leila Khaled,” featuring Palestinian rights activist Leila Khaled. This was followed in late October by the company’s termination of three online events, organized in solidarity with SFSU, at New York University (NYU), the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UH), and the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. Zoom removed the SFSU seminar from its platform the day before it was scheduled to take place, responding to mounting pressure from various pro-Israel and Zionist groups. The company argued that the meeting was “in violation of Zoom’s Terms of Service” because it may violate federal laws by providing “material support” for terrorism. This is referring to Khaled’s long-time membership in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which was added to the US Department of State’s list of “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” in 1997. In an email to The Intercept, Zoom Spokesperson Andy Duberstein made it quite clear that the company can bar anyone from using its services. In his email, Duberstein notes a section of the company’s terms of services that states, “Zoom may investigate any complaints and violations that come to its attention and may take any (or no) action that it believes is appropriate, including, but not limited to issuing warnings, removing the content or terminating accounts and/or User profiles.” Zoom’s cancelation of SFSU’s seminar was followed by Facebook’s removal of the event’s livestream link and promotional material from its platform. Facebook also issued threats to shut down the online pages of the event’s sponsors. YouTube shut down the livestream of the seminar on its platform 23 minutes after it had started. The ludicrous arguments put forward by Zoom, Google and Facebook that the event was providing “material support” for terrorism is invalidated by the fact that not only was Khaled participating in a personal capacity, not as a representative of the PFLP, but she was not getting paid to speak at the event. Zoom’s blatant act of political censorship was met with widespread denunciations by educators and students around the world, and at least a dozen major universities planned to hold online meetings in solidarity with SFSU on October 23. Zoom, acting on information provided to them by “third parties,” shut down three of these meetings the day that they were scheduled to take place. Numerous organizations, including the NYU chapter of the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), have strongly denounced the censorship by Zoom as a flagrant attack on free speech on campuses.

Student Loan Losses Seen Costing U.S. More Than $400 Billion – WSJ  -The U.S. government stands to lose more than $400 billion from the federal student loan program, an internal analysis shows, approaching the size of losses incurred by banks during the subprime-mortgage crisis. The Education Department, with the help of two private consultants, looked at $1.37 trillion in student loans held by the government at the start of the year. Their conclusion: Borrowers will pay back $935 billion in principal and interest. That would leave taxpayers on the hook for $435 billion, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.The analysis was based on government accounting standards and didn’t include roughly $150 billion in loans originated by private lenders and backed by the government. The losses are far steeper than prior government projections, which typically measure how much the portfolio will cost the government in the next decade, not the entire life of the loans. Last year the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the student-loan program would cost taxpayers $31.5 billion, including administrative costs.After decades of no-questions-asked lending, the government is realizing that it has a pile of toxic debt on its books. By comparison, private lenders lost $535 billion on subprime-mortgages during the 2008 financial crisis, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.The effect this time is different. The government, unlike private lenders, can borrow trillions of dollars at low rates to absorb the losses, without causing a panic. But taxpayers will end up paying a price because Congress will have to raise taxes, cut services or increase the deficit to cover the losses. The absence of a cataclysmic event like the financial crisis is removing the impetus for the federal government to change its lending practices, which analysts said have enabled colleges to raise tuition far above the rate of inflation.“There’s no market discipline here,” said Constantine Yannelis, a former Treasury Department official in the Obama administration who now teaches at the University of Chicago. “In 2007-2008, we saw a lot of lenders who were making risky bets going under. There’s no force like that in the student-loan market.”

Michael Olenick: How Biden Could Tackle the Student Loan Crisis -Countless people are pressing President-elect Biden to solve the student-loan crisis through executive order, forgiving $50,000 of student-loan debt. Additionally, Biden has proposed the atrocious idea of the US buying up to $10,000 of private student loan debt.I 100% agree with the need to deleverage the student loan burden but not so much the proposed means.Before readers throw lawn darts, hear me out because I suspect we’re all on the same or a similar page.There’s about a $1.7 trillion student loans outstanding, acting like a boat anchor tied to the ankles of people as they try to thrive in the modern US.  Today’s thirtysomething’s, with more degrees, are living in their parent’s basements working three dead-end jobs. They can’t afford houses, can’t start businesses, can’t have children, and can’t even get married lest they expose a spouse legally to their student-loan burden.If the as-is student loan system existed forty years ago, a young Steve Jobs – who’d focused on calligraphy and ancient art classes – would be working as a bartender rather than attending the Home Brew Computer club on his way to founding Apple. There are few similarly historically economically destructive analogs beyond slavery.Biden may be able to forgive the money lent directly by the US government without Congressional approval that Republicans would never agree to. That becomes far iffier for the funds lent by third-parties but guaranteed by the US. It’s impossible for private loans.Furthermore, forgiving the debt would likely be classified as a “taking” so bill collectors (er, I mean “servicers”) would theoretically be due all the funds they would’ve otherwise collected. Students get some relief … maybe. Collectors collect a windfall. For Biden’s private loan relief idea, “investors” – who, let’s face it, are largely predatory lenders – get paid back funds they might never otherwise collect. Oh yeah, if the scheme works students are on the hook for taxes for the discharged amounts; tax bills they can’t afford.There’s a better solution. The Donald Trump special … bankruptcy.  Right now student loans are all but ineligible for bankruptcy discharge due to a judicial interpretation. Under federal law, student loans may be discharged for “undue hardship” which, absent a legislative definition, courts have defined as being braindead. Owe 120% of your take home pay to student loans? That’s not undue hardship according to judges because you might, someday, make more money (never mind that’s unlikely since you can’t do much to advance thanks to the loans). Very few people meet the undue hardship standard.

Censored Planet: University of Michigan research finds worldwide increase in internet censorship - A group of researchers from the University of Michigan (UM) have published a global database of instances of internet censorship that shows an “extremely aggressive” growth of online interference on a world scale over a recent 20-month period. The team used an automated global censorship tracking platform called Censored Planet, which was developed in 2018 by UM assistant professor of electrical engineering and computer science Roya Ensafi. Between August 2018 and April 2020, the team collected 21.8 billion measurements of online censorship from 221 countries. Among the key findings of the research—presented at the Association of Computer Machinery (ACM) Conference on Computer and Communications Security on November 10—was that censorship is increasing in 103 of the countries that were studied, including Norway, Japan, Italy, Israel and Poland. A press release issued by the UM on November 17 described the findings contained in the team’s research paper as “The largest collection of public internet censorship data ever compiled,” which “shows that even citizens of the world’s freest countries are not safe from internet censorship.” It also showed that among the countries where censorship is expanding are those “rated as some of the freest in the world by advocacy group Freedom House.” The research reveals that, for the most part, the increasing internet censorship is “driven by organizations or internet service providers filtering content” and not “nationwide censorship policies such as those in China,” where online content is highly restricted by direct state intervention. “When the United States repealed net neutrality, they created an environment in which it would be easy, from a technical standpoint, for internet service providers to interfere with or block internet traffic.” She added, “The architecture for greater censorship is already in place and we should all be concerned about heading down a slippery slope.”

Covid-19 is NOT the Flu - Dr Tiffany Doherty --  (video)  One argument we continue to hear about the reaction to Covid-19 is that “it’s just another flu”, and that we can move forward with life as usual, much like we move forward with life during flu season. While we wish that were true, it simply is not. There are major differences that necessitate a much bigger reaction to Covid-19. In today’s episode we detail both the similarities and the differences between the illnesses caused by these two viruses.

High blood sugar could increase COVID-19 death risk for non-diabetics, says study - Abnormally high blood sugar may worsen outcomes and mortality rates for COVID-19 patients, including those without diabetes, according to major research published in the peer-reviewed open access journal Annals of Medicine. The study, based on more than 11,000 non-critically ill hospital patients in Spain, is the largest of its kind to date. It adds to evidence that hyperglycaemia - the medical term for high blood glucose - is associated with a higher chance of death independent of a diabetes diagnosis. The findings show patients with abnormally high glucose levels were more than twice as likely to die from the virus than those with normal readings (41.4% compared to 15.7%). They also had an increased need for a ventilator and intensive care admission (ICU). The researchers are now calling for compulsory hyperglycemia screening and early treatment for anyone hospitalized with COVID-19 who is non-diabetic. They urge clinicians not to overlook the condition among patients, regardless of a prior history of diabetes. "Screening for hyperglycaemia in patients without diabetes and early treatment should be mandatory in the management of patients hospitalized with COVID-19," "Admission hyperglycaemia should not be overlooked, but rather detected and appropriately treated to improve the outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without diabetes."

Diabetic eye disease associated with five-fold risk of severe COVID-19 - People with diabetes and eye disease have a five-fold increased risk of requiring intubation when hospitalised with COVID-19. The study, published today in Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice by King's College London, identified for the first time the risk associated with diabetic retinopathy and COVID-19. Diabetic eye disease is a common complication of diabetes and is caused by damage to the small blood vessels in the eye. In 2014, the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was 54.6% in people with Type 1 diabetes and 30.0% in people with Type 2 diabetes*. Diabetic retinopathy was reported in 67 (36%) of patients, the majority with background retinopathy. Of the 187 patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19, 26% were intubated and 45% of these patients had retinopathy. Retinopathy was associated with a five-fold increased risk for intubation. In the cohort, 32% of patients died and no association was observed between retinopathy and mortality. "This is the first time that retinopathy has been linked to severe COVID-19 in people with diabetes. Retinopathy is a marker of damage to the blood vessels and our results suggest that such pre-existing damage to blood vessels may result in a more severe COVID-19 infection requiring intensive care treatment.

COVID's collateral damage: Germicidal lamps may damage corneas - In a paper published in the journal of Ocular Immunology and Inflammation, physicians from the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine reported that several patients using germicidal lamps in an attempt to sanitize against the coronavirus, developed painful inflammation of the cornea, a condition called photokeratitis. These consumer-available ultraviolet (UV) emitting devices were being used in an attempt to eliminate coronavirus from homes and offices. "During the height of the pandemic, we noticed an increased number of patients coming in with irritation, pain and sensitivity to light," said first author and Bascom Palmer resident Jesse Sengillo, M.D. "We realized this was after direct exposure to germicidal lamps that emit UV light in the C range to kill bacteria and viruses. This can be quite a painful experience for the patient, but with prompt topical lubrication and antibiotics to prevent infection, patients often do very well." UV photokeratitis occurs when the cornea is overexposed to ultraviolet radiation. This can happen at high elevation, where less UV rays are absorbed by the atmosphere, or near water, snow or other reflective surfaces in the environment. A few hours after exposure, patients experience burning in their eyes and sometimes intense light sensitivity. Numerous germicidal lamps are on the market, and while they may be safe for at-home use, customers need to pay close attention to manufacturer recommendations to prevent damage to the eyes and skin. "The patients we met were not aware of these recommendations, and many were unknowingly exposed at work" said co-author and fellow resident Anne Kunkler, M.D., B.S. "For UV-C emitting devices, it is best to leave the room while the device is on. Our patients were directly exposed to the light for various lengths of time. A few hours later, they felt discomfort and sought medical attention."

Doctors use existing treatment earlier to save the lives of Covid-19 patients - The lives of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 are being saved by doctors who are using an existing medical treatment at an earlier stage. Dr Luigi Sedda of Lancaster University analysed the results from the team at Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust (WWL). Their research has now been published in the prestigious medical journal BMJ Respiratory Open. He said: "We show that Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) in the first days of hospitalisation seems to save between 10% to 20% of patients. However it is important to underline that this was a pilot study with a small sample size, although comforting evidence is starting to emerge elsewhere." According to NHS England, 96% of people who died with Covid had at least one serious health condition and the majority are over the age of 80. In the case of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome, COVID-19 may cause the lungs to swell and collapse. Using CPAP treatment, which is often used at home to help people with sleep problems, helps to keep the lungs open and makes breathing easier.

Sixty-Day Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 -- This observational cohort study looked at patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (discharged between 16 March and 1 July 2020) at 38 hospitals participating in the MI-COVID19 initiative. The aim of MI-COVID19, a Michigan statewide collaboration sponsored by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM) and Blue Care Network, is to improve care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Trained quality abstractors (often registered nurses) collect data from patient medical records using structured templates. At 60 days after discharge, abstractors review the medical record to collect data on clinical events, including readmission (to the index hospital or any hospital viewable in the medical record) and postdischarge death. In addition, for all patients alive and not residing in a health care or correctional facility, abstractors contact patients by telephone to complete a survey about primary care follow-up, ongoing cardiopulmonary symptoms, return to normal activity, financial impact, and emotional and mental health outcomes. At least 3 attempts are made to contact patients. The study was deemed “not regulated” by the University of Michigan institutional review board (HUM 00179611). Findings: Of 1648 patients with COVID-19 admitted to 38 hospitals, 398 (24.2%) died during hospitalization and 1250 (75.8%) survived. Of 1250 patients discharged alive, 975 (78.0%) went home whereas 158 (12.6%) were discharged to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility (Table 1). By 60 days after discharge, an additional 84 patients (6.7% of hospital survivors and 10.4% of intensive care unit [ICU]-treated hospital survivors) had died, bringing the overall mortality rate for the cohort to 29.2%, and 63.5% for the 405 patients who received treatment in an ICU. Within 60 days of discharge, 189 patients (15.1% of hospital survivors) were rehospitalized.

We now have the best evidence yet that coronavirus immunity lasts 6 to 8 months after infection, and perhaps even years -- We now have the best answer yet to a crucial, lingering question about COVID-19: how long immunity lasts. New research suggests that recovered coronavirus patients likely have a robust immune memory that persists for at least eight months. This memory relies on more than just antibodies — it also involves white blood cells known as T cells and B cell that have impressive powers of recollection. Combined, these layers of protection enable the immune system to recognize and re-attack the coronavirus should it ever invade again, thereby preventing another infection.To assess how long immunity to the virus lasts across these various layers of the immune system, scientists measured how many — and what types of — immune cells recovered coronavirus patients had months after they got sick. Their research, though not yet peer-reviewed, offers hope that those who've already gotten infected likely won't be ill again for quite some time."Most people are making most parts of the immune response to this virus, and those parts are still around six to eight months later," Shane Crotty, a virologist at La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California and a co-author of the study, told Business Insider. "That looks like generally good news for having protective immunity."Some research has suggested that coronavirus antibodies — blood proteins that protect the body from subsequent infection — fade within a few months. But concerns about those findings can discount the role of  killer T cells, which identify and destroy infected cells, as well as helper T cells that inform B cells about how to craft new antibodies."All of those elements are designed to work together: If in any given person one's not so great, the other arms of the immune system can compensate. So it makes sense to measure everything," Crotty said.

 CDC warns eight COVID-19 infections are missed for every one counted -- The record surge in coronavirus cases across the US is likely far worse, with an estimated eight infections unreported for every one infection counted, according to a government report — which would put the true tally closer to 100 million. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calculated that by the end of September there had really been as many as 53 million Americans contract the deadly bug — just under eight times the confirmed cases reported at the time.Of those, the CDC believes about 45 million were sick at some point and about 2.4 million were hospitalized.The true tally is likely now far higher, with November continually breaking case records across the US — with now 12,778,256 cases officially reported, according to Johns Hopkins University data Thursday morning.If the CDC is correct about the number of missed cases, that would put the true number of infections in the US now closer to 100 million.As well as record numbers of infections, the US is also seeing more people hospitalized by the contagion than ever before — as well as record numbers of deaths in at least nine states.It comes as mass travel for Thanksgiving against CDC guidance is feared to create even more disaster. “It’s potentially the mother of all superspreader events,” former White House medical team adviser Dr. Jonathan Reiner told CNN of the holiday.

Why Ventilation Is Key to Battling Coronavirus (video, 5:52) As the weather gets colder and people head indoors, the risk of catching Covid-19 is rising. WSJ explains why air ventilation and filtration are one of our biggest defenses against the coronavirus this winter.

MMR vaccine could protect against COVID-19 -- The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine has been theorized to provide protection against COVID-19. In a new study published in mBio, an open-access journal of the American Society for Microbiology, researchers provide further proof of this by showing that mumps IgG titers, or levels of IgG antibody, are inversely correlated with severity in recovered COVID-19 patients previously vaccinated with the MMR II vaccine produced by Merck. MMR II contains the Edmonston strain of measles, the Jeryl Lynn (B-level) strain of mumps, and the Wistar RA 27/3 strain of rubella. "We found a statistically significant inverse correlation between mumps titer levels and COVID-19 severity in people under age 42 who have had MMR II vaccinations," said lead study author Jeffrey E. Gold, president of World Organization, in Watkinsville, Georgia. "This adds to other associations demonstrating that the MMR vaccine may be protective against COVID-19. It also may explain why children have a much lower COVID-19 case rate than adults, as well as a much lower death rate. The majority of children get their first MMR vaccination around 12 to 15 months of age and a second one from 4 to 6 years of age."

 AstraZeneca reports its new vaccine is highly effective -  More promising vaccine news poured in on Monday, with drugmaker AstraZeneca announcing its COVID-19 vaccine candidate displayed “positive high-level results” following clinical trials. The results are comparable to efficacy rates announced by fellow pharmaceutical companies Moderna and Pfizer.The company stated in a press release that the vaccine candidate, called AZD1222, was given to thousands of volunteers in interim doses. When given as a half dose followed by a full dose within a month, the vaccine showed an efficacy rate of 90 percent for a portion of the sample population.When adding two full doses within a month, the efficacy rate stood at about 62 percent. The combined analysis from these two studies averaged to a 70 percent efficacy rate,“These  findings  show  that  we  have  an  effective  vaccine  that  will  save  many  lives,” said Andrew Pollard, a professor at Oxford University and member of the vaccine development team. “Excitingly, we’ve found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective and if this dosing regime is used, more people could be vaccinated with planned vaccine supply.”AZD1222 uses replication-defective viruses developed from a weakened version of the common cold virus as well as genetic material from COVID-19 to help the body stimulate an immune reaction when the coronavirus is detected.No severe side effects were reported during the trials. AstraZeneca noted that it will begin submitting its data to various regulatory agencies across the world, including the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency usage. It will also submit the AZD1222 for an Emergency Use Listing with the World Health Organization to make the vaccine available for low-income countries.The results published on Monday featured data from volunteers based in the UK and Brazil, but AstraZeneca is conducting other trials across the globe.

 Pfizer launches trial for deliveries of COVID-19 vaccine in four states - A week after the pharmaceutical company revealed optimistic data regarding the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Pfizer has launched a delivery program to alleviate the accompanying temperature storage challenges. Pfizer made headlines as one of the first major pharmaceutical companies to have data from clinical trials exhibiting a 90 percent efficacy rate in preventing a COVID-19 infection. Reuters reports that this trial delivery program was established to help get the vaccine distributed across multiple locations while remaining at its necessary temperature. The vaccine reportedly must be consistently stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 Fahrenheit), which is well below the standard for vaccines of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit). "We are hopeful that results from this vaccine delivery pilot will serve as the model for other U.S. states and international governments, as they prepare to implement effective COVID-19 vaccine programs," Pfizer told reporters in a statement Monday. The four states to receive initial deliveries of the vaccine include Rhode Island, Texas, New Mexico and Tennessee. Reuters notes that these locations were selected based on their size difference, population diversity, urban and rural sprawl of residents, and vaccine infrastructure. These states will only serve as pilots to gauge how well the vaccine can travel across a range of geographic landscape and will not receive preferential treatment by the vaccine company, namely with a first round of dosages. Developed in conjunction with BioNTech, Pfizer’s vaccine candidate could have help with distribution from the Trump administration through Operation Warp Speed. Notably, however, Pfizer and BioNTech did not accept any federal funding when creating the vaccine. It did strike a deal to supply the U.S. government with the first 100 million doses of the vaccine, pending approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Pfizer reportedly plans on filing for the emergency use authorization designation, likely around the third week of November and as more trial data emerges.

Oxford-AstraZeneca Vaccine Is Cheaper than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s and Doesn’t Require Supercold Temperature - The biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has released data on what is now the third promising vaccine candidate against COVID-19 – and it has several advantages over those of its competitors, Pfizer and Moderna.  On Monday, AstraZeneca released interim analysis of its phase 3 trial data of 23,000 volunteers from the U.K. and Brazil. These results show that the test vaccine is between 70% and 90% effective in stopping COVID-19, depending on the vaccine doses administered. Although less effective than the reported results from the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine candidates, this vaccine is still more effective than annual influenza vaccines that reduce the risk of flu by between 40% and 60%. Notably none of the vaccinated participants needed hospitalizations or reported severe disease.  AstraZeneca’s vaccine was originally planned to be given in two full doses, four weeks apart, as injections in the upper arm. A third of the volunteers were injected with a dummy saline placebo. One of the few details that AstraZeneca released is that of 131 cases of COVID-19, only 30 cases were detected among 11,636 who were given the vaccine; 101 cases occurred among the volunteers who got the placebo. That suggests that the vaccine is 70% effective overall. However, an error in the early stages of the trial meant that some participants received only a half-dose in the first round. In the group of 2,741 volunteers who received a lower dose of the vaccine candidate followed a month later by a full booster dose, the efficacy was 90%, according to AstraZeneca. The efficacy was only 62% among the 8,895 volunteers who received both full doses. It is not clear why the half-dose plus the full dose sequence of the vaccine performs better than two full doses. One explanation could be that since the vaccine is based on a common, although nonhuman, cold virus, the immune system probably attacks and destroys it when the first dose is too large. It is also possible that progressively increasing the dose more closely mimics a natural coronavirus infection. Beginning with a lower first dose might be a better way of kicking the immune system into action; then a stronger, more effective immune response occurs after the second full booster dose. Despite enormous progress in human immunology, scientists still don’t understand the best strategies for inducing protective immunity. AstraZeneca will now seek approval from the FDA to also evaluate the half-dose protocol in the ongoing U.S. trial. The current trial involves 30,000 participants and is evaluating only the two full-dose regimen. AstraZeneca’s trials in the U.S. were halted temporarily in early September after a study participant in the U.K. fell ill, but resumed in the U.K., Brazil, South Africa and Japan.

Some things don’t add up about the Astrazeneca trial results.  AstraZeneca just released interim results from the placebo-controlled, randomized trial of the vaccine they co-developed with scientists at Oxford University. Here is the AP story on the press release and some commentary from Nature, and the Oxford University press release. Many of the reports emphasize how this vaccine, based on inserting genetic material for the spike protein into a viral vector from a chimpanzee adenovirus, is cheaper and easier to distribute than the two mRNA-based vaccines, with the AstraZeneca priced at $2.50/dose as opposed to the BioNTech/Pfizer at $20/dose or Moderna at $15-$20/dose, and the AstraZeneca Vaccine not requiring the extreme cold temperatures for transport and storage that the mRNA vaccines require.    However, before this vaccine is widely distributed all around the world, its efficacy and safety need to be confirmed. The press release suggests the vaccine has been shown to be efficacious, but there are numerous questions about these results and details about the underlying trials that need to be clarified before we can understand whether we can indeed be confident in its efficacy.   The results state that the overall efficacy of the virus was 70%, but that the efficacy was 90% if the regimen was given as a "half dose" followed by a "full dose" after the month, and it was 62% if the "full dose" was given both time points. It was reported that the study involves a total of 11,363 participants, 2741 in the part of the study including the reduced "half dose" and 8622 in the part of the study including the "full dose".  From these, I have reverse engineered what the study results might be based on an assumption that each part has both vaccine and control patients at equal randomization, and provide the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on efficacy based on these assumptions to give us an idea of the precision of the results. So we see that the half-dose looks very promising, with efficacy of 90% getting close to what was found for the mRNA vaccines, but given the relatively small sample size, there is considerable uncertainty with 95% confidence interval spanning from 67% to 98%,  But looking at the full dose, the efficacy was only 62% and the 95% confidence interval only spans from 41% to 77%. This 62% efficacy is above the USA FDA's required 50% threshold, but is much lower than what was seen in the mRNA vaccine studies and for the half-dose in this study. They also report a combined efficacy of 70% aggregating information across both doses, but as I detail below, there are many reasons why it is likely not appropriate to simply aggregate this information together in this way.

AstraZeneca admits the best results in its COVID-19 vaccine study came from a dosing error, and experts are raising new questions about the shot - AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford's coronavirus vaccine's high efficacy may have been in part due to a dosing error. In the press release on the vaccine's efficacy released on Monday, the vaccine candidate had a higher efficacy - up to 90% - in the group that received a half dose and then a full dose. But the candidate vaccine was just 62% effective in the group that received two full doses. Mene Pangalos, head of biopharmaceuticals research and development at AstraZeneca, admitted to Reuters on Monday that some participants received a half dose and then a full dose due to a dosing error. Pangalos called it a "useful mistake" in a later interview with the New York Times, published on Wednesday. Oxford University said in a statement on Wednesday that some of the vials in the trial did not have the right concentration of vaccine. The university said the problem was discussed with regulators and they decided to complete the late-stage trial in two groups, according to the AP. COVID vaccine: When will it arrive? Will it work? How soon will it end the pandemic?Experts say the small number of people in the low dose group - some 2,741 - make it difficult to know if the effectiveness is a statistical quirk. Also, none of the people in the low dose group were over 55 years old and younger people tend to have a stronger immune response than those who are older. A spokesperson for the University of Oxford told Euronews that "as a result of a difference in the manufacturing process" the phase I trial method was "shown to over-estimate the dose on the new batches of vaccine resulting in a half dose of the vaccine being administered as the first dose". After discussing with the regulator, the two different concentrations were tested in phase III trials. David Salisbury, an associate fellow of the global health program at Chatham House said another area of confusion is that the press release pooled results from the two groups to reach an average of 70% efficacy. “You’ve taken two studies for which different doses were used and come up with a composite that doesn’t represent either of the doses,″ Salisbury told the AP. “I think many people are having trouble with that.″

Vaccine trials didn't monitor one variable: volunteers' behavior. 'Masks and social distancing were left up to us,' a participant said.  - Jenny Hamilton, a 57-year-old former police officer, joined Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine trial in August. After getting each of the two shots, she recorded what she felt in an app: low-grade fevers, fatigue, and muscle aches. When Hamilton reported "severe" tiredness, a study coordinator quickly texted her to see how she was doing.  But the coordinators didn't track Hamilton's social interactions after she got injected — nor those of any other volunteer. That's true in other vaccine trials as well: Moderna did not give volunteers any specific instructions about mask wearing or social distancing. And neither trial assessed volunteers' individual exposure levels (based on, say, their family members' activity). That means there could be unintended variations between the groups that got a placebo and those that got the real vaccine.  But experts don't expect these variations to significantly alter the findings, since the volunteers were randomly — and blindly — assigned to one group or the other.   Pfizer and Moderna both set rules about who could participate in the trials in the first place. Pfizer's volunteers had to be "at risk for acquiring COVID-19" — people like frontline workers and those who use mass transit. Participants in Moderna's trial also had to have a considerable risk of exposure.    "They needed participants to interact moderately in the community, such as grocery shopping once a week, picking up food in restaurants, take out, or dining in once in a while," Hamilton told Business Insider. "Masks and social distancing were left up to us."   Clinical vaccine trials are designed to hunt for COVID-19 cases or adverse side effects among participants. In their trials, both Pfizer and Moderna randomly assigned half the participants to get a saline shot, while the other half got the actual COVID-19 vaccine. Neither researchers nor volunteers knew which type of shot they were getting. If the vaccine is successful, very few people in the vaccine group should get sick.  Indeed, that's what happened. Pfizer's trial recorded 162 COVID-19 cases in the placebo group, and just eight in the vaccine group. That suggest its vaccine is 95% effective in preventing the disease. Moderna's trial, meanwhile, observed 90 COVID-19 cases in the placebo group and five in the vaccine group, suggesting its vaccine is 94.5% effective.  Although the researchers have no way to tell how people behaved after they received their shots, both companies' trials rely on randomization to control for that potential variation. That's how they prevent differences in individual behavior from skewing the results.    "Behavioral differences by geography, say between a city with a stay-at-home order and one without, shouldn't bias the trial results because the trials are randomized at the individual level," Doshi said.    If trial participants engage in riskier behavior, it becomes easier to tell if a vaccine actually prevents them from getting COVID-19.  "In many ways, you don't want them to get sick, but on the other hand, you're only going to know if the vaccine works if a certain number of them get sick,"   But participating in a vaccine trial may also change how people normally behave — particularly if they think they can guess whether they got the vaccine or placebo due to the appearance or absence of side effects.

Covid vaccine: CDC should warn people the side effects from shots won’t be ‘walk in the park’ Public health officials and drugmakers need to warn people that coronavirus vaccine shots may have some rough side effects so they know what to expect and aren't scared away from getting the second dose, doctors urged during a meeting Monday with CDC advisors. The recommendations come as states prepare to distribute the potentially life-saving vaccinations as early as next month. Dr. Sandra Fryhofer of the American Medical Association said both Pfizer's and Moderna's Covid-19 vaccines require two doses at varying intervals. As a practicing physician, she said she worries whether her patients will come back for a second dose because of the potentially unpleasant side effects they may experience after the first shot. "We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park," Fryhofer said during a virtual meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, an outside group of medical experts that advise the CDC. She is also a liaison to the committee. "They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful. But they've got to come back for that second dose." Participants in Moderna and Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine trials told CNBC in September that they were experiencing high fever, body aches, bad headaches, daylong exhaustion and other symptoms after receiving the shots. While the symptoms were uncomfortable, and at times intense, the participants said they often went away after a day, sometimes sooner, and that it was better than getting Covid-19. Both companies acknowledged that their vaccines could induce side effects that are similar to symptoms associated with mild Covid-19, such as muscle pain, chills and headache. One North Carolina woman in the Moderna study who is in her 50s said she didn't experience a fever but suffered a bad migraine that left her drained for a day and unable to focus. She said she woke up the next day feeling better after taking Excedrin but added that Moderna may need to tell people to take a day off after a second dose. "If this proves to work, people are going to have to toughen up," she said. "The first dose is no big deal. And then the second dose will definitely put you down for the day for sure. ... You will need to take a day off after the second dose."

Dutch Study Involves Exposing Hundreds Of People To COVID-19 To Test Effectiveness Of Vaccines -  - The latest group of intrepid scientists to test the boundaries of virology and medical ethics belongs to the Leiden University Medical Center in the Netherlands. A team of Dutch researchers has already recruited a team of more than 240 volunteers for what's called a "human challenge" study. For those who aren't familiar with the concept, a "challenge" study involves deliberately exposing subjects - animals, or (in this case) human volunteers - to the virus to test the effectiveness of various vaccine candidates. One could call it a 'trial by fire'. So far, Moderna and Pfizer have touted headline numbers claiming their vaccines are 95% effective. Only time will tell whether these vaccines actually prevent infection in 19 out of 20 recipients. Meanwhile, the "dosing error" that led AstraZenaca and Oxford to offer conflicting assessments of its adenovirus-vector vaccine depending on different dosing regimens is only the one of the trial's shortcomings. It has also been revealed that the vaccine's best data was gleaned from a group of exclusively younger patients, meaning older more vulnerable patients may be at risk of seeing serious infections develop anyway. The plan for the "challenge study" is being championed by an organization called 1Day Sooner, which is dedicated - as its name suggests - to accelerating the quest for an effective COVID-19 vaccine. Quarantine facilities in London have already been reserved by the group, which said it expects the trials to begin in January - provided regulators grant their blessing.With vaccine development and administration still a far-off prospect for millions of Americans, the Trump Administration has promised to start vaccinating health-care workers and the most vulnerable patients by mid-December.Officials have said vaccines will begin to ship out hours after the FDA grants emergency use approval to Pfizer and/or Moderna. Markets appear to have already internalized this outcome, evidenced by the Dow's record close yesterday.1Day Sooner has allies in the biotech space that are willing to supply the equipment the company would need to conduct the study. One British biotech firm said last month that it was already in advanced talks with HMG over permission to create and provide strains of the virus for what would be a groundbreaking study.Though Reuters didn't name it in the version of its report published online, the biotech firm referenced above appears to be Open Orphan, a British firm that one Twitter user said "is the only company in the world with a commercial human challenge study model for Covid 19."

Putin Can’t Take Russia’s ‘Safe’ Covid-19 Vaccine, Kremlin Says President Vladimir Putin told fellow world leaders last week that both of Russia’s Covid-19 vaccines, including one he championed as the world’s first inoculation against the disease, are safe and effective. That doesn’t mean he’s taken a jab. “We have not yet begun widespread vaccination and the head of state can’t take part in vaccination as a volunteer. It’s impossible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday, in response to a question on whether Putin had been inoculated. “The president can’t use an uncertified vaccine.” Developers of Russia’s flagship vaccine, Sputnik V, said Tuesday that initial testing showed it was 91.4% effective in preventing infections, although it has not yet published final results in a peer-reviewed journal. Among volunteers who started the vaccination process earlier, preliminary data indicated efficacy of over 95%, according to the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Russia has the world’s fifth-highest number of cases globally, passing 2 million last week. Putin announced the registration of Sputnik V in August and a second inoculation was approved in October, even as Phase 3 trials to establish safety and efficacy are still taking place.

People who recover from Covid-19 can be reinfected with new strain, study shows  -- People who caught and recovered from Covid-19 may be reinfected with a different strain of the pathogen, a new study from South Korea shows. Researchers found that a young woman infected with one strain of the coronavirus was, just weeks after recovering, reinfected with a different strain of the virus.The findings indicate that the patient’s immune response to the first strain did not protect her from the second and highlight how mutations could make controlling Covid-19 more difficult than first thought. South Korea is at the centre of efforts to understand reinfection after reports in April that scores of people who recovered from the virus later went on to test positive for Covid-19 again.  Researchers sequenced the genetic material, or RNA, of two types of coronavirus found in an affected 21-year-old woman: one type from when she was initially infected and the other from when she was reinfected. The findings, released in Clinical Infectious Diseases, detailed key differences in the genetic material coding for the spike protein, a structure that sits on the outside of the coronavirus – giving the virus its crown-like appearance. Using computerised analysis, the researchers produced an evolutionary tree for several samples of the virus. They found that the types from the woman were different strains that belonged to different clusters. These clusters are characterised by particular changes or mutations in the genetic material of the pathogen.The first type of coronavirus the woman was infected with belonged to an evolutionary grouping or clade called V, while the strain she was reinfected with was from clade G.“The viral RNA from the positive retest was clustered into a subgroup distinct from that of the initial infection, suggesting that there was a reinfection of Sars-CoV-2 with a subtype that was different from that of the primary strain,” the study's authors wrote.

Study finds meatpacking plants were responsible for 8 percent of coronavirus cases in opening phase of pandemic in the USA recent university study found that outbreaks at meatpacking plants were responsible for nearly 8 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the United States during the early months of the pandemic. Charles Taylor of Columbia University and Christopher Boulos and Douglas Almond of the University of Chicago found a strong statistical correlation between infections in broader communities and their “proximity to livestock plants.” Between 236,000 and 310,000 coronavirus cases through July 21 occurred near a meatpacking plant, comprising 6 percent to 8 percent of infections at the time. Between 4,300 and 5,200 coronavirus deaths were in counties near large meat-processing facilities, representing about 3-4 percent of all US deaths.“The vast majority” of the cases recorded, the researchers conclude, were “likely related to community spread outside these plants.” Workers in a Hog Slaughter and Processing Plant (Wikimedia Commons) By July 21, when correcting for risk factors including racial and ethnic background, average income, household size, portions of workers in frontline jobs, elderly population and population in prisons and nursing homes, the researchers found residents of counties with meatpacking plants had a 51 percent higher rate of infections and a 37 percent increase in death rates. The study also found that meat processing facilities that received waivers from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to increase production line speeds resulted in more county-wide cases. To add insult to injury, the USDA submitted a proposal earlier this month to raise maximum line speeds nationwide for chicken processing Ashley Peterson, Senior Vice President of Scientific and Regulatory Affairs for the National Chicken Council (NCC), attempted to downplay the study by claiming that the “vast majority” of infections and deaths documented in the study were people who did not work at poultry or meat plants, proclaiming that it “highlights the fact that individuals are more likely exposed to COVID-19 due to community spread.” This, however, is precisely the point: Outbreaks at meatpacking plants themselves have been key drivers of broader community transmission. In data recorded and reported by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), there is “a strong positive relationship between livestock-processing plants and local community transmission of COVID-19, suggesting that these plants may act as transmission vectors into the surrounding population and accelerate the spread of the virus beyond what would be predicted solely by population risk characteristics.”

National Guard members sent to El Paso to help at overwhelmed morgue - Three dozen Texas National Guard troops were deployed to El Paso County to aid in “mortuary affairs support” amid a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths in the state.The Texas Division of Emergency Management said a total of 36 troops had been deployed, according to CNN. El Paso Mayor Dee Margo (R) said city and county officials have established a central location for a morgue in the city.The troops are set to replace the jail inmates the county previously deployed to transport the bodies of those who died from the virus in the area, CNN reported.Chris Acosta, a spokesperson for El Paso County Sheriff’s Office, confirmed last week that while inmates are typically not compensated for such work, the inmates in question volunteered on the condition that they be compensated.“As we've seen a rapid increase in cases and hospitalizations, we are unfortunately also seeing a spike in deaths,” Margo tweeted Friday. “We have been working closely with funeral homes and mortuaries to assist with increased capacity and coordination of resources.” “The Texas Military will provide us with the critical personnel to carry out our fatality management plan and we are very grateful to them for their ongoing support,” Margo added.The county is one of the Lone Star State’s hotspots for the virus, reporting 1,074 new cases Saturday and eight additional deaths, for a total of 853 dead overall. The state has recorded a total of 1.13 million cases and just under 21,000 deaths.

Hundreds of bodies from New York virus surge still stored in freezer trucks - Hundreds of bodies remain in storage in freezer trucks in New York months after their deaths during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring, The Wall Street Journal reported. City officials told the Journal that there are about 650 bodies in storage on the 39th Street Pier in Brooklyn’s Sunset Park. The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner said the bodies are largely those of people who could not afford a burial or whose next of kin could not be located. Such bodies would ordinarily have been buried on Hart Island, according to the newspaper, but Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) pledged in April that those burials would not occur during the coronavirus pandemic. Some 230 victims’ relatives have not yet been located, the chief medical examiners’ office said. Officials said relatives have not had the money to collect the bodies in other cases. The city nearly doubled the burial subsidy it offers in May, the Journal noted, but the $1,700 offered is still far short of the $9,000 average cost for a traditional burial or the $6,500 cost of a service and cremation. Dina Maniotis, the chief medical examiner’s office’s executive deputy commissioner, told the newspaper that while anyone has the right to request a free burial on Hart Island, numerous family members are not clear on their options. “This has been traumatic,” she said. ”We are working with them as gently as we can and coaxing them along to make their plans. Many of them will decide they want to go to Hart Island, which is fine.” Aden Naka, the office’s deputy director of forensic investigations, added that the unit is only equipped to handle about 20 deaths per day, about one-tenth of those it was faced with at the height of the pandemic in the city.

650 bodies stored in freezer trucks for months in New York City disaster morgue - The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that hundreds of bodies have been kept in a disaster morgue on the Brooklyn waterfront for months, after New York City was overwhelmed by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. About 650 remain, and as a second wave of the virus hits the New York City area, the macabre “backlog” of bodies is likely to rise. Just as the pandemic overwhelmed the city’s health care system, it also overwhelmed the city’s death care system, with bodies overwhelming morgues and funeral homes. Thousands of New Yorkers lived within view of a refrigerated truck brought in to store bodies on the street or in a parking lot during the height of the pandemic. Hundreds of those bodies ended up on the 39th Street Pier in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, after delays in identifying them and making proper arrangements. The New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) is trying to identify relatives for about 230 of the deceased, with others remaining in storage as their aggrieved family members make funeral arrangements. In many cases, these family members have themselves had COVID-19; some have died from it. Even in terms of staffing, the OCME was simply unequipped to deal with the surge in deaths: 15 forensic investigators and seven staff working to identify next of kin were dealing with 200 deaths a day rather than the normal 20. Calls from family members asking about death certificates or trying to view a body skyrocketed to 1,000 daily from only dozens before the pandemic, prompting the addition of staff from the city’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The Wall Street Journal relates the case of Lea-Anne Carafa, who was contacted by the OCME on July 28 to tell her that “her husband, Frank Joseph Carafa, from whom she was separated, had died and been found in bed almost three months earlier, on May 6.” As much as the delays in identifying bodies and contacting relatives have created a situation in which hundreds of people have not been buried for months, the concurrent health and economic crises are also delaying burials.

TSA screens 2M flyers in two days after warning against travel  - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has screened more than 2 million flyers on Friday and Saturday, in the two days after the federal government issued a warning against Thanksgiving travel. TSA data indicates that more than 1 million travelers were screened on Friday, the second day to reach beyond 1 million since March. Friday’s traveling numbers amounted to almost 40 percent of the TSA screenings conducted on the same weekday last year. On Saturday, the TSA reported that it screened 984,369 travelers, almost 45 percent of the screenings completed on the same weekday in 2019. The more than 2 million travelers over the past two days is much less than the amount who traveled for the holiday on Friday and Saturday last year. But it still shows that many plan to follow through with their plans to travel for Thanksgiving despite the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommending against it. The CDC issued its warning against traveling for Thanksgiving on Thursday, one week before the holiday, as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country are continuing to surge. In its announcement, the agency officially recommended Americans only spend Thanksgiving with people living in their households, meaning those who have lived in the same home for at least 14 days before the holiday. The CDC said those who do not follow these recommendations should wear masks, stay six feet apart from those not in their household and hold small gatherings outside. The TSA has consistently screened less than 1 million people every day since March, except for Oct. 18, which came at the end of Columbus Day weekend, as the travel industry has taken a huge hit amid the pandemic. Travel organization AAA predicted that there will be an “at least” 10 percent decrease in Thanksgiving travel due to the coronavirus crisis. TSA Administrator David Pekoske said he thinks the busiest travel days for the holiday will be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday after, according to CNN. The U.S. reached 250,000 total COVID-19 deaths last week, since the beginning of the pandemic in the spring. The country tracked a single-day record for hospitalization on Saturday with 82,227 currently hospitalized and for cases on Friday with 192,805 new confirmed cases.

US records 20 straight days of 100,000 new coronavirus infections - The U.S. on Sunday marked the 20th straight day of more than 100,000 new confirmed COVID-19 infections, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.More than 12.2 million cases have been confirmed in the U.S. as of Sunday, a staggering number that surpasses every other country's total. The U.S. has confirmed more than 3 million cases more than India, the country with the second-highest number of infections. India has seen more than 9 million cases and has recorded a rate of 60,000 cases per day for weeks.Deaths in the U.S. also continue to climb and most recently passed a quarter of a million, another grim statistic that sits far higher than the levels recorded in other countries.CNN reported Sunday that roughly a quarter of the U.S.'s total cases have been reported this month, a sign indicating the virus's continued rapid spread in many areas of the country.Despite the U.S.'s struggles with controlling the virus's spread, President Trump touted U.S. successes in the arena of pandemic response at a Group of 20 meeting on Saturday, according to White House officials."During his remarks, President Trump highlighted how the United States marshaled every resource at its disposal to respond to the crisis, as well as the unprecedented economic recovery of the United States on a foundation of tax and regulatory cuts, energy independence, and fair trade deals," said White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany.

Iowa hospitals overwhelmed, Wisconsin health care system on brink of collapse amid exponential rise in COVID-19 casesIowa officials reported on Sunday that the number of deaths from COVID-19 rose to more than 200 for the first time during any seven-day period of the pandemic. In the first weeks of November, Iowa recorded more than 30,000 cases of COVID-19. The state has just over 3 million residents. Until last week, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds had remained a holdout against even the mildest form of disease mitigation, a statewide mask mandate, in the service of big agribusiness, including the meatpacking companies. The state has been accused of obscuring the real scope of the outbreak in its effort to keep workers on the job and try to limit social opposition. The Iowa Gazette reports the state is using a formula that includes numbers not available to the public, producing positivity rates lower than what can be calculated with public data. KCRG reports the state government is barring local public health departments from releasing information on hospital capacity. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Iowa have shot up from under 500 in mid-October to about 1,400 late last week, mid-November. Hospitals in rural Iowa have been overwhelmed with patients and staff are suffering burnout. Iowa nurse Whitney Neville told The Atlantic, “It was doable over the summer but now it’s just too much. Last Monday we had 25 patients waiting in the emergency department. They had been admitted but there was no one to take care of them.” The state reported on Friday that 77 percent of those incarcerated in the Anamosa State Penitentiary have tested positive since March, many having recovered, and 124 prison staff have been infected. Iowa ranks fourth in the nation for prison infections. Family members of those incarcerated at the Anamosa told Iowa Public Radio that they fear speaking out publicly will result in their loved ones being retaliated against. More than 3,400 prisoners and staff have been infected and 8 prisoners and 1 staffer have died throughout the state’s prison system. The official response to the outbreak in Anamosa prison is to keep the facility on lockdown 23 hours a day, moving the few prisoners who tested negative out of the facility, transforming the entire prison into a sick ward. Anamosa was surpassed by North Central Correctional Facility in Rockwell City for the worst outbreak, with 90 percent of inmates testing positive for the disease. Last week, the state of Wisconsin marked its deadliest week of the pandemic. From Nov. 14–20, deaths from COVID-19 averaged 54 per day, a 17 percent increase from the prior week. The state surpassed 350,000 cumulative cases as of Saturday and 3,000 cumulative deaths. Three of the state’s highest daily death tolls were recorded last week: Nov. 17 saw the highest with 92 deaths, a record for the state, followed by 83 deaths Nov. 19 and 78 deaths on Nov. 20. In the state there have been 1,000 deaths in November alone. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted deaths from COVID-19 in Wisconsin will reach 4,000 by the first week of December, 5,000 by the year’s end, and 8,000 by March 1, 2021. Like Illinois to the south, COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death in the state.

1,000 U.S. Hospitals Are 'Critically' Short On Staff — And More Expect To Be Soon -- More than 1,000 hospitals across the United States are "critically" short on staff, according to numbers released this week by the Department of Health and Human Services. Those hospitals, which span all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, represent about 18% of all hospitals that report their staffing status to HHS. And that number is expected to grow: 21% of all hospitals reporting say they anticipate having critical staffing shortages in the next week. The worst-hit state is North Dakota with 51% of hospitals that reported saying they're facing shortages; seven states say over 30% of their hospitals are in trouble. This is the first time the federal agency has released this data, which includes limited reports going back to summer. The federal government consistently started collecting this data in July. After months of steadily trending upward, the number of hospitals reporting shortages crossed 1,000 this month and has stayed above since. The data, however, are still incomplete. Not all hospitals that report daily status COVID-19 updates to HHS are reporting their staffing situations, so it's impossible to tell for sure how much these numbers have increased. While the data is a welcome addition to the arsenal of information that public health officials have to fight COVID-19, it highlights the shortcomings of what the federal government has made available to the public. Though the government has precise daily figures for COVID-19 hospitalizations at thousands of the country's hospitals, it shares only a small subset of this information to people outside government.

Colorado Reps. Perlmutter, Lamborn test positive for COVID-19 - Two members of Colorado’s congressional delegation in two days announced they had tested positive for COVID-19.  Rep. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat from Arvada who represents the 7th District, announced the news in a press releaseTuesday.“As of now, I am asymptomatic and I’m feeling good,” Perlmutter said. “I am currently in Washington D.C. and plan to isolate in my apartment while continuing to work and voting remotely.”  The office of Rep. Doug Lamborn, a Republican from Colorado Springs who represents the 5th District, issued a press release Wednesday about his positive test. The release said Lamborn is “experiencing mild symptoms.” “He has been in contact with the U.S. House Attending Physician and is following all CDC guidelines and isolating at his home in Colorado Springs,” the release says.  Members of Lamborn’s staff in October tested positive for COVID-19, according to The Denver Post. 

6th Arizona state lawmaker tests positive for COVID-19 - (AP) — A sixth member of the Arizona Legislature has confirmed he tested positive for COVID-19. Rep. Andrés Cano, a Democrat, announced on social media Wednesday that he is not symptomatic and is in isolation. “COVID-19 cases are spiking throughout our Nation, and nobody is immune — even when precautions are taken,” said Cano, who was reelected earlier this month. “We are in this together and we can protect each other. I urge my fellow Arizonans to take care of their loved ones by avoiding large gatherings and wearing a mask at all times.” Last week, Democratic Rep. Arlando Teller of Chinle announced he also tested positive and was isolating. The most serious case involved Rep. Lorenzo Sierra, who spent several days on a ventilator after becoming ill in October. He has now recovered. Rep. Raquel Teran also became ill in October, while Sen. Lupe Contreras and Rep. JoAnne Osborne revealed their infections earlier in the year. Sierra, Contreras and Teran are Democrats and Osborne is a Republican. More than 190 state lawmakers nationwide have tested positive for the disease and four have died, according to a tally by The Associated Press.

Cleveland coronavirus cases up 1,200 percent since early October - The Cleveland area has seen its number of coronavirus cases skyrocket by 1,259 percent in the past seven weeks according to the Ohio Department of Health, as cases across the country continue to climb. On Oct. 1, when Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) released an advisory alert map, the Cleveland/Akron area was reporting an average of 83 cases a day, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Now, the area is averaging 1,134 cases a day. The Buckeye State, like many states in recent weeks, on Friday broke its record for new cases in a single day, reporting 8,808 cases. So far, 343,286 coronavirus cases and 5,984 deaths have been reported in Ohio. Last week Franklin County, where the state’s capital of Columbus is located, was elevated to the highest public emergency level, indicating a risk of “severe exposure and spread.” The recommendation for residents in a county at this level is to “only leave home for supplies and services.” Last week, Columbus health officials announced a month-long health advisory, urging residents to only leave the home for essential needs, work and school. “I'm not going to mince words: We have entered a dangerous time in our fight against COVID-19. This surge is much scarier than we saw in the spring or again in the summer," Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther (D) said after the advisory was announced. When the advisory system was first released on Oct. 1, 11 counties were classified as Level 3. Now, of Ohio's 88 counties, 15 are at Level 2, one is at Level 4 and the rest are Level 3. In a tweet last week, DeWine warned that “Other counties may not yet be seeing continuous, uninterrupted increases in the same way that is causing Franklin to move to purple, but make no mistake—almost all counties are seeing more cases and more healthcare use that could threaten the medical system if they continue.”

Close to 1,000' Cleveland Clinic caregivers infected with Covid-19 - The Cleveland Clinic's Chief Caregiver Officer Kelly Hancock urged her community to follow social distancing and mask guidelines as Covid-19 grips hundreds of those working inside of one of America's best hospitals. "We had a record today, we saw nearly 12,000 new cases in the state of Ohio of Covid-positive patients, and so when you think about the increase and the hospitalizations that results in, it's incredible," Hancock said during a Monday evening interview on "The News with Shepard Smith." "We're experiencing close to 1,000 of our caregivers who've been affected by Covid-19, and unable to come in and care for those patients." The Cleveland Clinic reported that 970 caregivers are out due to the virus, triple the number from two weeks ago. In the greater Cleveland area, Covid-19 cases are on the rise, according to the Ohio Department of Health. There was an average of 83 new cases between September 23-29, but between November 11-17 the average was 1,134 new cases. Hancock told host Shepard Smith that despite the infections of its health-care workers, that the Cleveland Clinic is still able to uphold its standard of care for patients. "Right now we have adequate staffing, we're able to mobilize our caregivers to the areas they're needed most, but we continue to meet frequently throughout the day to continue to assess the situation for both our caregivers, as well as the bed capacity," Hancock said. The United States recorded more than 3 million new coronavirus cases this month alone. That's a quarter of all the country's cases to date, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. The U.S. has averaged 1,500 deaths per day over the past week, which is an average of more than one death every minute for the past week. Hospitalizations have been up for 29 straight days, and over that time, the number of people hospitalized for the virus doubled, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Hancock urged that America's health-care workers need all the help they can get right now. She advised people to avoid large gatherings during the holidays, to wear masks appropriately, and frequent hand washing. "All of this is really concerning for all of us and we need to do all of this to ensure that we can keep our caregivers at work," said Hancock.

'Hospitals Know What’s Coming: The Hospital Best-Prepared for COVID-19 Is Nearly Overwhelmed - Perhaps no hospital in the United States was better prepared for a pandemic than the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha.  After the SARS outbreak of 2003, its staff began specifically preparing for emerging infections. The center has the nation’s only federal quarantine facility and its largest biocontainment unit, which cared for airlifted Ebola patients in 2014. The people on staff had detailed pandemic plans. They ran drills.  UNMC is “arguably the best in the country” at handling dangerous and unusual diseases. There’s a reason many of the Americans who were airlifted from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February were sent to UNMC.In the past two weeks, the hospital had to convert an entire building into a COVID-19 tower, from the top down. It now has 10 COVID-19 units, each taking up an entire hospital floor. Three of the units provide intensive care to the very sickest people, several of whom die every day. One unit solely provides “comfort care” to COVID-19 patients who are certain to die. “We’ve never had to do anything like this,” . “We are on an absolutely catastrophic path.”  To hear such talk from someone at UNMC, the best-prepared of America’s hospitals, should shake the entire nation. In mid-March, when just 18 Nebraskans had tested positive for COVID-19, Shelly Schwedhelm, the head of the hospital’s emergency-preparedness program, sounded gently confident. Or, at least, she told me: “I’m confident in having a plan.”  But now about 2,400 Nebraskans are testing positive for COVID-19 every day—a rate five times higher than in the spring. More than 20 percent of tests are coming back positive, and up to 70 percent in some rural counties—signs that many infections aren’t being detected. The number of people who’ve been hospitalized with the disease hastripled in just six weeks. UNMC is fuller with COVID-19 patients—and patients, full stop—than it has ever been. “We’re watching a system breaking in front of us and we’re helpless to stop it,” says Kelly Cawcutt, an infectious-disease and critical-care physician.Cawcutt knows what’s coming. Throughout the pandemic, hospitalizations have lagged behind cases by about 12 days. Over the past 12 days, the total number of confirmed cases in Nebraska has risen from 82,400 to 109,280. That rise represents a wave of patients that will slam into already beleaguered hospitals between now and Thanksgiving. “I don’t see how we avoid becoming overwhelmed,”

"We Feel Like We Are Drowning" - Rural Hospitals Overwhelmed By Shortages Of Bed, Staff - As the coronavirus ravages rural parts of the US, areas it largely ignored during the spring and summer, hospitals are being overwhelmed. We pointed out earlier that only four US states have hospitalization rates below 100 per million, with the Midwest being the worst hit region, though down in Texas, El Paso has stood out for the severity of its outbreak, and the degree to which deaths have overwhelmed the city's morgues, forcing Gov. Greg Abbott to send in the national guard. On Tuesday, Reuters published a story recounting stories from some of the most overburdened hospitals in the country right now. They can be found in places like rural Lakin, Kansas, or other "critical access" hospitals spread out across a dozen states in the midwest and the mountain west. Sparsely populated states like North and South Dakota are being hit particularly hard. Since mid-June, daily new COVID-19 cases reported in the midwest have increased by 20x. For the week ending Nov. 19, North Dakota reported an average of 1,769 daily new cases per 1 million residents, while South Dakota recorded nearly 1,500 per million residents, Wisconsin and Nebraska around 1,200, and Kansas nearly 1,000. Even during New York’s worst week from April, the state never averaged more than 500 new cases per million people. California hasn't topped 253.Across the Midwest, hospital directors told Reuters that they're at capacity, or dangerously close. Most have tried to increase availability by repurposing wings or cramming multiple patients in a single room, and by asking staffers to work longer hours and more frequent shifts. Kearny County Hospital in rural Lakin, Kansas is one such example. The hospital is classified as a "critical access hospital" by federal authorities since it's the only hospital servicing a patch of southwestern Kansas, not far from the border with economically desolate Oklahoma. Some medical workers complained to Reuters that they see a "disconnect" between the grim scene inside the ICU, and families who are out planning Thanksgiving dinner parties, while some young people continue frequenting bars. "There’s a disconnect in the community, where we’re seeing people at bars and restaurants, or planning Thanksgiving dinners," said Dr. Kelly Cawcutt, an infectious disease doctor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. As health workers, she said, "we feel kind of dejected." Dr. Drew Miller, the chief medical officer at Kearny, told Reuters about how he almost lost a 30-year-old patient who needed to be moved to the ICU, but there were no beds. The man survived after he briefly stopped breathing. Dr. Miller said he was astonished when the patient's pulse returned. Still, while some forecasters see even more dire numbers ahead, Dr. Miller warned "I don’t think the worst is here yet."

America Is on Track to Hit a COVID-19 Death Record - How Many Americans Are About to Die?  The United States has made huge advances in fighting the coronavirus. The astonishingly high death rates the country saw during the spring have fallen, and Americans are much more likely now than they were then to survive a COVID-19 hospitalization. New treatments have, in some cases, helped speed recovery—President Donald Trump has trumpeted his own bout with the virus as proof that there is a “cure” for the illness. (There is not.) These developments have given Americans the impression that no matter how high cases surge, deaths might not reach the heights of the spring. But the truth is grimmer. The story people want to believe about how much treatments have improved in recent months does not hold up to quantitative scrutiny. The U.S. health-care system has not reduced the deadliness of the coronavirus since July, according to a new estimate by a prominent COVID-19 researcher, which accounts for the lags in public reporting of cases and deaths. Instead, the virus has, with ruthless regularity, killed at least 1.5 percent of all Americans diagnosed with COVID-19 over the past four months. This rate is a major improvement, down more than tenfold from the earliest days of the pandemic, when deaths were high and the extreme limits on coronavirus testing held down the number of diagnosed cases. But in this new phase of the pandemic, when testing is more widely available and a much higher proportion of cases are diagnosed to begin with, it is also terrible, terrible news. Because the case-fatality rate has stayed fixed for so long and there are now so many reported cases, predicting the virus’s death toll in the near term has become a matter of brutal arithmetic: 150,000 cases a day, times 1.5 percent, will lead to 2,250 daily deaths. In the spring, the seven-day average of daily deaths rose to its highest point ever on April 21, when it reached 2,116 deaths. With cases rising as fast as they are, the U.S. could cross the threshold of 2,000 daily deaths within a month. Without a miraculous improvement in care, the United States is about to face the darkest period of the pandemic so far.

Projected US coronavirus deaths more than 400,000 by March  - The U.S. has been breaking daily coronavirus case records regularly in November, with the current number of cases at more than 11 million and the number of deaths nearing 250,000, according to the New York Times. By one research group’s calculations, the number of deaths in the U.S. could surpass 400,000 by March 2021.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation publishes projections of COVID-19 deaths, infections, testing, hospital resource use, mask use and social distancing. You can view the charts for the global situation or broken down to country or even further by region within a country.In the U.S., if restrictions are eased, the model projects deaths to reach more than 586,000 by March 1, 2021. If things stay the same, deaths would be at nearly 439,000 over the same time period. Lastly, if mask mandates were put into effect, they estimate there would be about 370,000 deaths due to COVID-19. The business-as-usual and mask mandate scenarios also include an assumption that if daily deaths reach 8 per million people then restrictions like closing nonessential businesses would be reinstated for six weeks. The researchers behind these projections update their model regularly, incorporating data collected by other groups. They also estimate that stress on hospitals will peak in December and January, according to a briefing. The scenarios are based on observations of mask wearing and physical distancing. The researchers say that declining vigilance in these behaviors may account for recent increases in coronavirus cases, in addition to seasonality.

Mayo Clinic Puts Hospital Beds In Ambulance Garage, Lobbies As COVID-19 Surges - As the crush of new COVID-19 hospitalizations stretches hospitals around the state to their limits, the Mayo Clinic Health System is taking unprecedented steps to expand capacity at its northwestern Wisconsin locations. Those include moving beds into waiting rooms, surgical spaces and even a parking garage.  It's been just more than a week since the Mayo Clinic announced 100 percent of its hospital beds in Northwestern Wisconsin were full. That number fluctuates by the hour, but emergency room physician Paul Horvath said hospitals and emergency rooms have been forced into what is known as "diversion status." "I worked a shift in one of the emergency departments the other evening," Horvath said, "and literally every bed in northwest Wisconsin was full, and hospitals just weren't able to admit new patients. Which means that I had the challenge of managing ICU level care in my ER for hours, which is obviously not routine."A recent surge of 20 patients at Mayo's hospital in Barron forced staff to move some patients into a room designated for preparing people for surgery, said Horvath. He said when emergency departments fill up, paramedics have to find new places to bring patients that are further away and may not have the same level of staff or equipment to treat the critically ill.Horvath said from a patient's perspective, the team of doctors and nurses all look the same in their layers of personal protective equipment. Beeping monitors and the hurried, labored breathing of patients makes communication more difficult too. Horvath said he sometimes feels like he's yelling at patients and staff to cut through the noise. Sue Cullinan is an emergency room doctor at Mayo Clinic's Eau Claire hospital. On Oct. 12, she recorded video diary entries detailing how the hospital was preparing for the ongoing surge of new admissions. "Our surge plan expands into the garage, it opens up more beds, we're expanding into lobbies, we're putting people where we wouldn't normally put patients," said Cullinan. "Not where I'd want to put my grandfather or my grandmother," she said, though it "may have to happen." On Nov. 22, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services reported 208 new hospitalizations due to COVID-19. There are 2,076 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across the state, according to DHS. At the same time that health systems are being inundated with new patients, they're responding with fewer staff. A Mayo Clinic Health System spokesman told WPR as of Nov. 20, there were 239 Wisconsin staff out of work due to COVID-19 infections or exposure.

Nurse: “We Are Screaming at the Top of Our Lungs and So Few Are Listening” -- Uri Friedman of The Atlantic popped off a chewy little thought bomba couple of weeks back. Surveying the national landscape under COVID, he argued that in the age of the pandemic, a new metric for “national strength” must be cultivated: the resilience of a population under duress. It is this metric, Friedman argued — not a nation’s military prowess or economic muscle — that matters the most right now. And by this metric, the United States has failed the COVID test thoroughly. Friedman’s insight feels all the more relevant as we pass into the COVID crucible of mass Thanksgiving travel. While holiday travel this year hasdropped several percentage points due to pandemic concerns, many millions will still risk breathing the air on planes and trains in order to spend time with family and friends. They do so at a grimly consequential moment: COVID took almost 2,500 lives just yesterday, and has been infecting nearly 200,000 people a day for the last week. It is, at present, worse than at any moment since the crisis began. The United States is proving time and time again its inability to succeed in relation to this metric. It is facile to scapegoat Thanksgiving travelers, a vivid example though they may be, because this failure began with the first infection and has spread with it from one side of the nation to the other. When a large segment of a population is gulled by its leaders into thinking protective masks are an anti-freedom political statement to be shunned, even as the bodies pile up inside refrigeration trucks at the morgues, that is a gross and dispiriting failure of popular resilience from top to bottom. Nowhere has the weight of our national failure of resilience landed heavier than in the medical facilities that are taking this new COVID spike straight in the teeth. The pandemic may have revealed our weaknesses as a country, but it has also shined a bright spotlight on our strengths. Within the confines of a broken, profit-motivated health care system is an army of deeply devoted professionals who have thrown their bodies on the gears of this viral machine since it began.  I spoke to two working nurses this week, one on the East Coast and one on the West. Kathleen Logan, a nurse practitioner in acute inpatient and primary care, works in Massachusetts. T., who asked that their name be withheld out of concern for job security, is an RN at a hospital in the Pacific Northwest. “I don’t understand why they won’t listen to us,” lamented T. regarding the mobs of holiday travelers. “We are screaming at the top of our lungs and so few are listening. We don’t have a well-functioning health care system in the best of times. I wonder what it will look like in three to four weeks?”  “I’m getting scared again just like the worst part of the first surge,” said Logan. “We are reusing ‘sanitized’ N95 masks, which is just disgusting. It’s been documented that the integrity of the mask is depleted with each sanitization, so I don’t participate in it. I leave it in the UV light and spray it down with disinfectant.”

“Come, be a hero.” – A word from a Los Angeles physician and professor of emergency medicine:  In my world, there is a lot of anger — most of it kept professionally hidden.In emergency rooms and intensive care units across the country, frontline nurses, respiratory therapists and doctors like me have been in danger every day for eight months. Smothered in PPE, we’re doused in coronavirus every day while we take care of the very sick, the worried well and the dying. Some of the dead aren’t patients; some are colleagues, friends and our own families.We are furious and we are exhausted. And now we face again the flooding of our hospitals.We’re tired of seeing patients who got the virus after their kid’s “limited” birthday party or because they went out to a restaurant dinner with “close friends” or flew to a celebration in a state “that didn’t have much COVID.”It didn’t have to be this way.We bent the curve, then let it bend right back. Distracted and tired, our focus faded.Fall is aptly named. People aren’t made to be perfect, but damn, we should be better than this.What you do — how we ALL act in the next six weeks — will make the difference between an inconvenient fall and a disaster that will take years to overcome.Until months AFTER the vaccines arrive, the same simple steps will be required. Not just in California, but also across our un-United States.Wear a mask whenever you leave the house. Stop doing dumb stuff, like going to parties, destination weddings and the French Laundry. Stop listening to know-nothings who spout “science” on YouTube and Twitter. Stop being crybabies about a little inconvenience. We already have more than 250,000 reasons to weep — and to be thankful we are alive and can still do something about it. […] As I put on my PPE before a shift in the ER, I think of seasick WWII soldiers, riding toward a beach as other young men on shore tried to kill them in the surf. Compared to what they faced, what I do is easy. Then, no one knew how long the war would last or if they would survive. People back home collected rubber and bacon grease for years, gave up countless liberties and luxuries, and no one ever called the war a hoax, even if they never saw a Nazi in their backyard.We’re eight months into COVID. World War II lasted six years and a day. The Great Depression lasted 10 years. The 1918 flu lasted two years and two months.Are we really that soft? That careless? That selfish?  It’s great news that a vaccine is likely to come soon, but don’t depend on it to save you and the people you love. Like the last man shot in war, you might get the virus before you get the vaccine.There is still time to save lives. Stay at home, and when you have to go out, wear your mask everywhere. Break the virus chain. Do it for yourself. Do it for those you love. Do it for your country.Come, be a hero.

Texas reports 14,000 new coronavirus cases, a daily record - State health officials on Tuesday reported 13,998 new coronavirus cases, a daily record. The number of infections and hospitalizations in Texas continues to climb, placing a growing strain on hospital capacity and staffing, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. The previous record for new daily cases — 12,597 — was set on Saturday. Before that, the record, 12,256 cases, was set on Thursday. Over the past seven days, Texas has averaged 10,601 new cases and 151 fatalities reported each day. On Tuesday, the state reported 162 newly recorded coronavirus fatalities. Nearly 8,500 COVID-19 patients were being treated in Texas hospitals on Tuesday, the most since Aug. 4. The statewide hospitalization figure has steadily increased since early October. The pandemic high, 10,893 hospitalizations, occurred on July 22. Coronavirus patients have occupied more than 15% of the total hospital bed capacity in five of the state’s 22 trauma service areas — El Paso, Midland-Odessa, Amarillo, Lubbock and Laredo — for at least a week, a threshold that triggers tighter restrictions. The rising case numbers and hospitalizations in Texas are part of a nationwide coronavirus surge. Health officials are urging people to avoid traveling for the holidays and to keep gatherings limited to their immediate households.

Record-setting day: 13 outlying North Texas counties set COVID-19 daily highs on Tuesday - Texas health officials reported 13,988 new COVID-19 cases in Texas on Tuesday, which is a daily record-high. While Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties are all dealing with a rise in cases, 13 outlying counties in North Texas set new record-highs for daily COVID-19 cases on Tuesday. Cooke County reported 174 daily cases Tuesday, which is more than five times the previous record. Kaufman County more than doubled its previous high with 381 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday while Ellis County added more than 500 daily cases for the first time. All of the COVID-19 data comes from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Ellis County added a record-high 507 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, almost double the previous record of 280 that happened on Nov. 10. The current 14-day average for COVID-19 cases is 79. This is also a county record. Kaufman County added a record-high 381 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, more than double the previous record of 160 that happened on Aug. 18. The current 14-day average for COVID-19 cases is 58. This is also a county record. Rockwall County added a record-high 252 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, almost double the previous record of 136 that happened on Aug. 18. The current 14-day average for COVID-19 cases is 41. This is also a county record. Johnson County added a record-high 312 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, almost double the previous record of 184 that happened on July 8. The current 14-day average for COVID-19 cases is 72. This is also a county record.

 Why are millions of Americans traveling for Thanksgiving as the pandemic rages? - The coronavirus pandemic is breaking records every day in the United States, filling up intensive care units, overwhelming hospital systems and exhausting health care workers. A record 203,000 Americans tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, and the seven-day average is above 170,000. Despite significant advances in treating the disease, more than 1,500 people are dying every day, the highest level since May. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that the US will record 300,000 deaths by the middle of December, and there could be as many as 21,000 new coronavirus hospitalizations each day. Workers walk out wearing protective gear as they leave for the day on a shift change at Life Care Center earlier this year in Kirkland, Wash., near Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson) The CDC has issued a severe warning against traveling for Thanksgiving, one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. It recommends that people restrict their dinner plans to those who live in their households in order to limit the further spread of the virus. “The tragedy that could happen is that one of your family members is coming to this family gathering and they could end up severely ill, hospitalized or dying. And we don’t want that to happen,” Dr. Henry Walke, the CDC’s COVID-19 incident manager explained at a press conference last week. Under these conditions, many people are choosing not to travel. The number of people flying for Thanksgiving is down by more than half from last year. However, the Transportation Security Administration reported that more than three million people passed through airport security checkpoints between Friday and Sunday, making it the busiest travel weekend since March, when restrictions and lockdowns were implemented to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Crowded security lines snaked through terminals as travelers packed onto airplanes to head home to see their families. All told, the American Automobile Association projects that 50 million people will travel by car, air and rail throughout the United States during the Thanksgiving holiday period stretching from November 25 through November 29. While this represents a 10 percent decline from 2019, the consequences of such a mass travel event will likely be catastrophic. The pandemic saw its initial widespread transmission when five million people traveled out of the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, where the first cases of COVID-19 were detected, to celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year with family. The virus quickly spread from China to the rest of the world.

November 24 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Deaths Increasing --Note: Week-over-week case growth has slowed, and will probably show a decline over the holiday weekend. However, it is likely that cases will pickup again the following week.  The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,519,223 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 166,672 positive tests. Over 28,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 11.0% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.
• 7-day average cases are at a new record.
• 7-day average deaths at highest level since May.
• Record Hospitalizations.

 US coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths explode during past two weeks - The number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States have exploded in the past two weeks. Hospitalizations currently stand at 85,836, according to the COVID Tracking Project, a new record for the fourteenth day in a row. The number of active cases has risen to more than five million and is on track to double every six to eight weeks. The number of daily deaths now exceeds 1,500 a day on average, more than 300 more than the summer peak and rapidly approaching the harrowing tolls of March, April and May. In total, there have been just under 13 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States and more than 265,000 deaths. Moreover, an analysis from the New York Times shows that in reality at least 326,000 people have died from the pandemic, accounting for those who have officially died from the virus and the total number of “excess deaths” since March. Such above normal death rates are now reported in all fifty states. Similar statistics are present on a global scale. Since the first case of the pandemic in December 2019, there have been 60 million cases worldwide, including 17 million which are currently active, up from 14 million two weeks ago. In total, 1.4 million men, women and children have died from the deadly contagion, a number which is currently estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation to rise to 1.8 million by Christmas Day. The overflowing morgues and mass graves in New York City, images that have become infamous, are on the verge of being repeated, this time in every state, county and municipality in the country. One of the sharpest expressions of the crisis in the United States is the number of hospitalizations nationwide, which have quickly surpassed 85,000, rising from just over 23,000 two weeks ago. The figure is expected to rise even more as tens of millions travel during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.  In addition to the record number of hospitalizations, there are also a record number of people in intensive care, 16,811. The number of people currently on ventilators, 5,411, is at its highest level since May.  The rise in hospitalizations has been accompanied by the increasing shortage of nursing staff needed to operate the ventilators and help keep patients alive. A recent report from Kaiser Health News notes that, because of the vast spread of the virus, shortages of nurses in a given city or region that were in previous months filled by nurses traveling from other areas are no longer being filled. Instead, a bidding war has erupted among hospitals and health care systems across the country, offering up to $10,000 per week in places like North Dakota, where the governor recently told nurses to stay on the job even if they are infected with COVID-19. This makes it nearly impossible for rural and poor areas to get such nurses because of the high pay they can find at hospitals in more affluent neighborhoods.

Michigan COVID-19 hospitalizations pushing medical facilities to occupancy limits - As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state of Michigan surged past 325,000 on Thanksgiving, medical facilities across the state were reaching their bed-capacity limits for the treatment of coronavirus patients needing hospitalization. According to data published by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS), statewide bed occupancy reached 75 percent as of November 23 with a total of 4,022 COVID-19 patients in 136 hospitals. The data also showed that 869 coronavirus patients were in hospital intensive care units. With case fatality rate of 2.7 percent, the state reported a total of 9,170 deaths from the pandemic as of Wednesday. The bed occupancy figures reported by MDHHS are compiled by the Michigan Health & Hospital Association (MHA) and the hospitals are required to enter it into the state’s EMResource data system. The percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied for each hospital includes all patients regardless of their COVID-19 status. This data revealed that bed occupancy in 53 Michigan hospitals was at 75 percent or greater. It also showed that six hospitals hit 100 percent occupancy and these hospitals—all outside the Detroit metropolitan area—are located in Grand Rapids, Saginaw, Standish, Bay City and St. Joseph, treating a total of 384 COVID-19 patients. A particularly dire situation is developing in Saginaw with Covenant HealthCare reporting the largest number of COVID-19 patients anywhere in Michigan, with 205 being treated at the facility. The hospital services approximately 20 counties in mid-Michigan and is the largest acute care facility in the region.“Like other hospitals across the state, staffing is the biggest challenge when it comes to capacity. Our space can be reconfigured to support different types of patients, but when it comes to staff with specialized skillsets, we have a finite amount.”

 The Coming Deadly Covid Winter - Yves Smith - You don’t have to be the son of a fortune teller to sometimes say, “I can see the future. To me, it as if it is already here.” The trajectory of Covid in the US, in combination with the baked-in features of our inept policy responses, means that the general outlines of what will happen over the next few months are close to inevitable. The only element in doubt is the severity of the outcomes.  Mind you, nothing below should come as a surprise, yet the press and experts seem reluctant to look at the obvious and see where it leads.   If you want proof of leadership/elite failure in the US, you need to look no further than the collective shrug of the shoulders at the way Covid hospitalizations are already at or near the point where ICU capacity are under strain in more and more states.  Despite exhortations by officials (not matched by their actions, see Gavin Newsom, Andrew Cuomo, and Nancy Pelosi) even those Americans who curtailing the size of their Thanksgiving gatherings haven’t gotten the memo: festivities outside your daily circle risks spread. The press is full of stories of people who though they’d found a safe way to see friends and relatives by gathering outside, yet they wound up infecting each other because they spent enough time indoors (food prep, bathroom breaks, cleanup). And that’s before you get to indoor celebrations and travel. So pretty much everyone with an operating brain cell is expecting an increase in infections in the weeks after Thanksgiving. Yet I don’t see any reason to see much of a change of heart or habits for the Christmas/New Year period, which means a further rise in disease levels and deaths by mid-late January. Washington is busy having Biden-gasms rather than go into overdrive to reduce the damage of an ongoing national disaster. And to complete this sorry picture, Covid out of control means increased health impairment and deaths on other fronts: patients, particularly those in high risk groups like the immunocompromised, putting off medical treatments and avoiding emergency rooms, and even breakdowns in care. The CDC estimated that of the excess deaths from January 26 to October 3,only 2/3 resulted directly from Covid. And this estimate didn’t factor in that reduced road travel due to lockdowns would reduce traffic fatalities. Alabama, for instance, had negative excess deaths in April because Covid hadn’t really arrived yet and car-related deaths fell. Once emergency rooms across a state are in crisis, officials will be forced into imposing some version of a lockdown to reduce the load on the medical system and save doctors’ and nurses’ lives. So we’re set to see a repeat of the spring: leaky containment programs that only go far enough to take the pressure off hospitals, as opposed to get infection levels low enough so that contact tracing + quarantines + masking can keep it at a low level.

 Cuomo Calls Supreme Court Ruling On Churches 'Irrelevant' - Responding to the Supreme Court's 5-4 decision to block New York from setting capacity limits at houses of worship during the pandemic, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) said the ruling was 'irrelevant." During a Thanksgiving Day conference call with reporters, Cuomo said the order was moot because the religious institutions involved in the lawsuit are no longer in designated red and orange zones in Queens and Brooklyn - therefore the restrictions, capping attendance at houses of worship - no longer apply."The Supreme Court made a ruling. It’s more illustrative of the Supreme Court than anything else," said Cuomo (via the NY Post), while knocking the Supreme Court's (arguably) conservative bias given the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett."It’s irrelevant of any practical impact because of the zone they were talking about is moot. It expired last week," he added. "It doesn’t have any practical effect." "The lawsuit was about the Brooklyn zone. The Brooklyn zone no longer exists as a red zone. That’s muted. So that restriction is no longer in effect. That situation just doesn’t exist because those restrictions are gone."

 Coronavirus updates: Los Angeles County issues stay-at-home order; US hits 13 million cases; Ohio State coach tests positive -- A national surge in COVID-19 cases continues as the United States recorded its 13 millionth case on Black Friday, a day typically marked by crowds of bargain hunters. This year, however, many shoppers across the country turned to online deals, keeping crowds thin. Even so, experts worried that testing disruptions over the holiday will lead Americans to falsely believe the virus' spread has slowed. That's because testing sites have shorter hours and fewer people are expected to be swabbed. “I just hope that people don’t misinterpret the numbers and think that there wasn’t a major surge as a result of Thanksgiving, and then end up making Christmas and Hanukkah and other travel plans,” Dr. Leana Wen, a professor at George Washington University and an emergency physician, told the Associated Press. The U.S. has reported more than 13 million cases and over 264,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. This week, five states set death records and 23 states had higher case counts than last week. The global totals: more than 61 million cases and 1.4 million deaths. Los Angeles County announced a new stay-home order Friday as coronavirus cases surge out of control in the nation’s most populous county. The three-week order takes effect Monday, and comes as the county confirmed 24 new deaths and 4,544 new cases of COVID-19. The five-day average of new cases was 4,751. The order advises residents to stay home “as much as possible” and to wear a face covering when they go out. It also bans people from gathering with people who aren’t in their households, whether publicly or privately. Exceptions are made for church services and protests, “which are constitutionally protected rights,” the county Department of Public Health said in a statement. Businesses and outdoor trails are also allowed to remain open. 

 As Americans gather for Thanksgiving, the world watches with dread and disbelief - Washington Post - Foreign observers are watching with trepidation — and at times disbelief — as coronavirus cases surge across the United States, and masses of Americans are choosing to follow through with plans to visit family and friends for this week’s Thanksgiving holiday anyway.  It’s been a grueling year. Many have gone months without seeing their loved ones. Thanksgiving travel is down and many families are opting against their usual festivities. But as the pandemic drags on, with shorter days and chillier weather forcing more people indoors, the social isolation is becoming more difficult to bear.  Decisions over whether to gather have turned divisive, as experts warn that Thanksgiving includes the key ingredients — a shared, indoor meal and inter-household mixing — that could spark an even worse surge in cases in the coming weeks. It’s a scenario that officials in other countries are trying to avert ahead of other upcoming holidays, such as Christmas and New Year’s. “From Australia, this looks like a mindbogglingly dangerous chapter in the out-of-control American COVID-19 story,” Ian Mackay, an associate professor of virology at the University of Queensland, wrote in an email. “Sadly, for some, this will be a Thanksgiving that is remembered for all the wrong reasons.” Mackay compared large numbers of Americans traveling for Thanksgiving to China’s Lunar New Year celebrations in early 2020 that inadvertently helped spread the virus at a crucial early stage. In some ways, this might be worse. “This time we all know where the virus is, we know how bad it can be, and we can be sure that this event will cause more sickness and some deaths,” Mackay said. The virus “will thrive among all the chances to trigger superspreading events among households and larger gatherings and parties. This is its way.”  Yap Boum, a Cameroonian epidemiologist and regional representative for Epicenter Africa, the research arm of Doctors Without Borders, said the willingness of some Americans to risk their and their family’s health to gather for a single day has left him befuddled. “From my perspective, I found it really crazy,” he said of large numbers of Americans choosing to travel for Thanksgiving. “On one hand, you see the people dying, on the other hand … you see that the vaccine is close. Why can’t you wait despite, of course … the mental challenge?”  International news outlets and foreign journalists are covering Thanksgiving travel in the United States extensively, with a mixture of concern, bewilderment and schadenfreude. “No nation suffers as much from corona as America — and yet in a few days a large part of the population here will meet to celebrate,” a U.S. correspondent for Germany’s Die Welt newspaper wrote this week. “Like mask-wearing, Thanksgiving has become another front in the country’s partisan left- and right-wing culture wars,” the Sydney Morning Herald observed. Noting that many people were still planning to travel by air this week, London-based journalist James Ball tweeted that the United States was in “absolutely deadly, delusional denial about Coronavirus.” “It goes well, well beyond Trump,” added Ball, who works as an editor at the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.

Global COVID-19 Cases Top 60 Million, US Deaths Top 260,000- Live Updates - As Americans hunker down for the Thanksgiving holiday, albeit with fewer family and friends than usual crowded around the table, recent data appeared to show that the 7-day average of new cases in the US has edged higher to 169,690. However, at the same time, the growth in daily new cases has slowed considerably ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with the weekly growth rate falling from over 40% around two weeks ago to 10% now, in a sign that modest state-run virus restrictions and behavioral changes are having an effect. The slowing is broad-based, with less than 40% of US states seeing daily cases rise ahead of testing over the past week, down from 90% earlier this month. The US COVID death toll has topped 260,000 just days after passing the 250k mark over the weekend. Meanwhile, global COVID cases have topped 60 million, as expected.  Globally, the number of deaths record yesterday topped 12.75k in just 24 hours, a new record high, as deaths finally start to catch up to increases in case numbers and hospitalizations. In terms of news, Reuters reported that the US government is considering removing bans on entry into the US for non-citizens who recently visited Brazil, the UK and the EU. While lifting these restrictions could lead to a resurgence in tourism, it's more likely that it won't have much of a near-term impact, as most airlines have cut international flights to the bone. Other bans, including on travelers from China and Iran, will remain in place. According to Reuters, the plan has received the approval of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Many administration officials argue the restrictions no longer make sense given that most countries aren't subject to any travel bans. Officials believe lifting the restrictions could bolster the struggling airline industry, which has seen international travel fall by 70% this year. The Trump Administration infamously dragged its feet before imposing travel restrictions in Europe, though Trump was one of the first leaders to impose restrictions on travelers from China. Reuters also interviewed family members of college students traveling home for the holiday, some of whom described asking their children to quarantine despite a negative test. Finally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed tighter restrictions during a Wednesday meeting with regional leaders including suggesting further reduction on the number of customers allowed in shops and tighter measures in schools in certain 'hotspots'.

November 28 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations - Note: The data will be unusual over the holiday weekend.  The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,419,105 test results reported over the last 24 hours.  There were 152,098 positive tests.  Almost 35,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.  The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line is 7 day average).  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).  And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.  The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. The dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.

Covid Profits of Pharmaceutical Monopolies vs Peoples’ Lives -  The governments of India and South-Africa backed by about 100 countries and counting are calling for a waiver on patents over COVID-19 related medicines and equipment. Headquarters countries of Big Pharma are opposing it. The debate is going on at the WTO and will be decided soon.   As reported by MSF/Médicines Sans Frontières or Doctors Without Borders: “Monopolies are often an obstacle between people and the lifesaving health tools they need. [Intellectual property like]patents and other exclusivities limit supply and keep prices high. In this unprecedented global emergency, governments have taken an incredibly strong stance at the World Trade Organization (WTO), proposing to allow countries to temporarily waive the obligations of enforcing patents, trade secrets, and other types of intellectual property (IP) during the COVID 19 pandemic so that everyone everywhere has access to lifesaving treatments, vaccines, tests and medical tools needed to beat back this pandemic.” MSF reports 99 of the WTO’s 164 Member States currently back the proposal and MSF calls on all governments to support the WTO waiver in forthcoming deliberations.  Case studies developed by Médicines Sans Frontières with Third World Network show IP obstacles impact access to essential medical products that go way beyond patents on vaccines and pose a barrier to COVID-19 technologies in both developed and developing countries. Diagnostic testing is critical when we are looking to contain the spread of COVID-19. And globally there have been shortages of testing materials. So in the Netherlands, there was a shortage of testing materials because often the diagnostic infrastructure, the testing or the diagnostic, is dependent on proprietary materials. And in the case of Netherlands early on they were unable to ramp up the testing because Roche was unable to supply the relevant materials. And they refused initially to disclose the recipe for the testing material until there was public pressure and the European commission considered investigating the behavior of Roche. So this shows that the business as usual approaches of pharma companies is hindering access.

South Korea tightening virus restrictions on Seoul - South Korean officials this weekend announced new, tighter lockdown rules for the greater Seoul area as daily coronavirus cases spike in the country. The surge in cases, which include five days of more than 300 new infections, is “extremely grave and serious,” Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said Sunday, according to The Associated Press. Park added that officials have identified at least 62 virus clusters in recent weeks. Park said the new rules, which take effect Tuesday and will be in place for the two weeks, will include the closure of nightclubs and the prohibition of late-night dine-in restaurant service. Athletic events will only be open at 10 percent of venue capacity, and drinking or eating will also be banned inside of cafes and gyms. South Korea, which kept its infection rates among the lowest of any country in the spring, has seen a pronounced increase since it rolled back most of its restrictions in October to reopen nightclubs and bars. The country reported 330 new cases on Sunday for a national total of 30,733. More than 500 people in the country have died from the virus. The announcement comes a day after officials were reported to be considering new measures. The Korean Society of Infectious Diseases warned Friday that without them, the country could surpass 1,000 cases daily. “COVID-19 transmissions are occurring in large numbers simultaneously across the country, and in some regions, the pace of infections has already overwhelmed local capacities for contact tracing,” the medical group said in a statement. In addition to the Seoul area, officials have reported outbreaks in several other high-population urban centers like Asan, Daejeon, Gwangju and Busan. “Our anti-coronavirus efforts are facing a crisis, and the situation is particularly serious in the Seoul metropolitan area,” Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said last week. “The heightened curbs would cause greater inconvenience in our daily lives ... but we all know from our experiences that there would be an even bigger crisis if we don’t act now,” he said.

COVID-19 infections spread rapidly in Spain amid government inaction - Tens of thousands of people continue to be infected with the coronavirus in Spain every day. Despite a slight dip in the number of daily cases reported, infection rates remain extremely high: 15-20,000 a day, according to official statistics. Spain has now recorded around 1.6 million coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic. It surpassed one million cases on October 21; in the space of just 20 days, the case total increased by 50 percent, reaching 1.5 million on 17 November. Last Tuesday, Spain reported 435 deaths from the virus in a 24-hour period, the highest daily fatality figures in the autumn. Between 250 and 400 people have died of COVID-19 across Spain every day over the last two weeks. At the end of last week, the 14-day cumulative incidence rate stood at 436 per 100,000 inhabitants, a decrease from the start of November, when this key indicator stood at 529. Despite these dangerously high figures, the Podemos-Socialist Party (PSOE) government has refused to take the action required to curb the virus, imposing only limited and ineffectual curfew measures, with some areas of the country even scaling back restrictions. After implementing limited closures in October across the hospitality and leisure sector to combat the pandemic, the Catalan government announced last Thursday that regional restrictions would start to be relaxed. This week, bars and restaurants will be able to reopen at 30 percent of their capacity and with an enforced closure time of 9:30 p.m. Cinemas, theatres and similar venues will also be allowed to open again at 50 percent of usual capacity. While the number of cases reported in Catalonia has gradually started to decline, thousands of infections are still being discovered each week. In the week ending 17 November, 13,907 cases were discovered in this region alone, with 414 deaths from the virus. There has been little change in the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital, with 2,402 admissions during this period, compared to 2,661 and 2,720 reported in the previous two weeks. Furthermore, the proportion of COVID-19 tests which return a positive result stands at 7.75 percent, meaning that the virus is still far from under control in Catalonia. According to criteria published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in May, a positive rate of less than 5 percent is an indicator that the epidemic is under control in a country. Across Spain, the average coronavirus test positivity rate is 11.9 percent, rising to 17 percent or above in four areas: Andalucía, Aragón, Castilla y León and Valencia. A test positivity rate this high indicates that many cases are probably going undetected. Meanwhile, the proportion of Intensive Care Unit hospital beds occupied by coronavirus patients stands at over 30 percent in Spain and at more than 50 percent in the regions of Aragón, Melilla and La Rioja. The vast majority of Spain’s provinces are considered to be at “Extreme Risk”—the highest level—according to the government’s own four-stage framework.

All intensive care beds occupied in Switzerland after COVID-19 infections explode - Last week, a press release from the Swiss Society for Intensive Care Medicine (SGI) caused a sensation. It announced that “All persons—especially those who are particularly at risk from the novel coronavirus—are asked to consider in a living will whether or not they would like to receive life-prolonging measures in the event of a serious illness.” This request is tantamount to a declaration of bankruptcy of the much-vaunted Swiss health care system. Many elderly people or those with existing conditions rightly understand it as an appeal for them to give up one of the country’s scarce intensive care beds in favour of younger, healthier people and to voluntarily depart this life. The same circular also states that all 876 certified intensive care beds in Switzerland are “currently practically fully occupied.” This development was “tragic since it was avoidable,” Geneva-based virologist Isabella Eckerle commented. A justified assessment. This latest turn in the pandemic is not a natural disaster, but the foreseeable result of deliberate political decisions. Under pressure from big business and the banks, the Swiss government has expressly refrained from imposing a lockdown to break the second wave of the pandemic. In mid-September, Finance Minister Ueli Maurer (Swiss Peoples Party, SVP), declared, “Switzerland cannot afford a second lockdown. We don’t have the money for that.” The government’s maxim was clearly to do everything possible to get the economy running again and maintain corporate profits. Since then, not only have all businesses and also schools and day-care centres been kept open, but also bars, restaurants, theatres and museums. In October, a regulation meant to ban events with more than 1,000 people was overturned. Not surprisingly, the virus has spread throughout society and is now fully circulating among seniors and other at-risk groups. The consequences are outbreaks in old people’s and nursing homes, overcrowded intensive care units and rapidly rising death rates. “In Switzerland, all intensive care beds are occupied”—Der Spiegel in Germany reported last Thursday. The official Swiss news portal nau.ch quickly protested and assured its readers that this was not true. “Fake news about Swiss intensive care units” was the headline of an article Thursday evening on the website. It claims that the intensive care units could be expanded at any time with “ad hoc” beds. It was just the “foreign media” who had claimed the opposite. Despite these protests, the situation is increasingly catastrophic. Switzerland has become a COVID-19 hotspot in Europe. The country currently has a 14-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants of 933 cases, putting it between the Czech Republic (1,002) and Slovenia (939), almost twice as high as Sweden (556).

 Greece’s hospitals face collapse in the second coronavirus wave - The second wave of the pandemic has brought the Greek health care system, which has been bled dry for decades, to the brink of collapse. With death and infection figures skyrocketing, doctors and nurses are sounding the alarm. Public-sector unions have called for a 24-hour strike for today because they fear the seething mood in the workforce will explode. On November 10, hospital workers organized small protests in Athens, Thessaloniki and other cities, and in October thousands of students went on strike and protested against the Greek government’s criminal coronavirus policies. With 1,815 deaths and over 95,000 infections among a population of 10.4 million inhabitants, this was the new high point of the pandemic in Greece on Tuesday evening. In November alone, almost twice as many people have already died from the virus than in the entire period from the beginning of the pandemic until October combined. On Saturday, the daily death toll reached a record 108, and 549 people are currently connected to respirators. Greece was not as badly affected in the first phase of the pandemic as other countries, thanks to a quick and tough lockdown. But since the summer, the numbers have been shooting up because the government, under the right-wing Nea Dimokratia (ND, New Democracy), opened up the economy and schools prematurely and comprehensively. Only in November was another partial lockdown imposed and schools and kindergartens closed. People are only allowed to leave the house for specified reasons, such as going to work or doctor’s visits. Restaurants, cultural facilities and stores except supermarkets and pharmacies are closed. However, the measures do not include industry, wholesale outlets and hotels and, moreover, they came much too late. The virus was already raging in all parts of society. According to the Ministry of Health on Friday, at least 82 percent of intensive care beds in Greece are occupied and hospitals will be unable to bear the burden of the new cases. They can only keep their heads above water at the moment because doctors and nursing staff are doing everything they can to make the impossible possible and to keep things going under the most adverse conditions. The situation is particularly serious in northern Greece. “We are in a desperate state, the intensive care units are full,” Special trains are standing by in Thessaloniki to transport coronavirus patients to other cities and even to Athens, 500 kilometres away.

‘Zombie’ minks rise from Denmark’s mass graves after COVID-19 slaughter - They’re tails from the crypt. Minks massacred amid a coronavirus outbreak in Denmark appeared to rise from the grave like zombies due to a bizarre biological phenomenon, according to a report Wednesday.Thousands of the animals were slaughtered and dumped in a makeshift mass tomb near the town of Holstebro after they were found to be carrying a mutated COVID-19 strain earlier this month,according to Agence France-Presse.But, in the rush to dispose of them, the furry critter corpses were buried just 3 feet deep — and were pushed to the surface by gases released during the decomposition process, the outlet reported.The hair-raising sight was spotted in a military training field, not far from a lake in the country’s western region — infuriating local elected officials, who called the flawed burial a potential public health nightmare. But the country’s environmental ministry, which was responsible for the burial, called the spine-tingling screw-up a “temporary problem tied to the animals’ decaying process,” according to the outlet. They noted the animals should have been buried under at least 5 feet of dirt.

Cooking with wood may cause lung damage   - Advanced imaging with CT shows that people who cook with biomass fuels like wood are at risk of suffering considerable damage to their lungs from breathing in dangerous concentrations of pollutants and bacterial toxins, according to a study being presented at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA). Approximately 3 billion people around the world cook with biomass, such as wood or dried brush. Pollutants from cooking with biomass are a major contributor to the estimated 4 million deaths a year from household air pollution-related illness. While public health initiatives have tried to provide support to transition from biomass fuels to cleaner-burning liquefied petroleum gas as a fuel source, a significant number of homes continue to use biomass fuels. Financial constraints and a reluctance to change established habits are factors, combined with a lack of information on the impact of biomass smoke on lung health. The researchers measured the concentrations of pollutants in the homes and then studied the lung function of the individuals, using traditional tests such as spirometry. They also used advanced CT scanning to make quantitative measurements--for instance, they acquired one scan when the person inhaled and another after they exhaled and measured the difference between the images to see how the lungs were functioning. Analysis showed that the ones who cooked with wood biomass were exposed to greater concentrations of pollutants and bacterial endotoxins compared to liquefied petroleum gas users. They also had a significantly higher level of air trapping in their lungs, a condition associated with lung diseases.

Does Glyphosate Disturb the Human Gut Microbiome? -More than half the bacteria in the human gut microbiome are sensitive to glyphosate, the mostly commonly used herbicide in the world, reported scientists this month in the Journal of Hazardous Materials.Researchers from the University of Turku in Finland recently developed a novel bioinformatics tool to predict if beneficial bacteria in the human gut are affected by exposure to glyphosate.They found that the herbicide could disturb the natural cycles of microbiome life, and potentially harm human health, through weakening the system and causing greater susceptibility to diseases."Glyphosate targets an enzyme ... [that] is crucial to synthesizing three essential amino acids," said Pere Puigbò, who co-developed the bioinformatics tool.Glyphosate is regularly in the news, viewed as a potential threat to health and well-being because of its widespread use on crops including corn, soy and canola. It is also a household weed killer, particularly the Monsanto/Bayer-owned brand Roundup.The herbicide is currently banned from many countries including Germany, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, and is heavily restricted in others. Cities and states across the U.S. are starting to reduce use or pushing for a ban, due to mounting health concerns. Other cities, such as Los Angeles and Miami, have already banned use.     "We need experimental research to study the effects of glyphosate on microbial communities in variable environments," "This groundbreaking study provides tools for further studies to determine the actual impact of glyphosate on human and animal gut microbiota and thus to their health."

 50,000 Farmed Salmon Escape Into the Tasmanian Ecosystem - Around 50,000 farmed salmon swam free on Monday after a fire melted part of their enclosure off the coast of Tasmania. The salmon's escape has prompted concerns from local environmentalists, who are worried about the impact of the farmed fish on native wildlife and ecosystems. While the farm's owners insist that impact will be minimal and the fish will be quickly eaten by seals or caught by recreational fishers, others disagree.  "It's like claiming a sewage spill is all good because it releases nutrients into the food chain," Neighbours of Fish Farming president Peter George told The Guardian. The fire that allowed the fish to escape broke out early Monday morning at an offshore enclosure owned by Huon Aquaculture, Australia's ABC News reported. The fire damaged about a third of a pen by burning and melting the pen both above and below the waterline, allowing the fish to escape. The company estimates that between 50,000 and 52,000 four kilograms (approximately 8.8 pounds) of fish got away. Huon Aquaculture does not yet know what caused the blaze.  "We have electrical equipment on our pens but in 35 years of farming we have never had an electrical fire on a fish pen so the cause has baffled us," CEO Peter Bender told the Australian Associated Press.  The escaped fish account for less than one percent of Huon's stocks, and the company has no plans to recapture them, according to The Guardian. But company representatives were confident the fish would not harm Tasmanian ecosystems. "Farmed salmon generally don't appear to feed on native species. While some fish did survive for some months, this did not necessary mean that these fish were thriving," Pene Snashall, their corporate communications and community relations manager, told The Guardian.  But environmentalists disagreed. "One IMAS [Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies] study found 15% of escaped salmon lived off wild fish – that's 7,800 from just this escape, and they happen regularly," Laura Kelly of Environment Tasmania told The Guardian.

Creators of Home Grown Human-Meat “Steaks” Swear Its Not Cannibalism -- A group of scientists, artists, and designers have developed a do-it-yourself meal kit that allows human meat steaks to be grown at home. The invention was recently nominated for “design of the year” by the London-based Design Museum.  The designers called the human meat “the Ouroboros Steak,” named after the circular symbol of a snake eating itself tail-first.  The kit is not on the market yet, but if it is ever approved, it will come with everything that a human-meat eater needs to use their own cells to grow miniature human meat steaks. The designers insist that it isn’t technically cannabilism because you are eating yourself, not another human.  “People think that eating oneself is cannibalism, which technically this is not,” Grace Knight, one of the designers, told Dezeen magazine. The Ouroboros Steak is the creation of scientist Andrew Pelling, artist Orkan Telhan and Knight, an industrial designer, on commission by the Philadelphia Museum of Art for an exhibit last year.  “Growing yourself ensures that you and your loved ones always know the origin of your food, how it has been raised and that its cells were acquired ethically and consensually,” a website for the invention states.

Invasive, Dog-Sized Lizards Pose Threat Across Southeastern U.S.  --These black-and-white lizards could be the punchline of a joke, except the situation is no laughing matter.That's because the Argentine black-and-white tegu is an invasive species of dog-sized lizards that scientists worry could pose a threat to endangered species across the Southeast.The tegus first came to the region as escaped or released pets and began to spread in South Florida more than a decade ago, National Geographic reported. But they are now reaching other states in the region and have been spotted in Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Louisiana and Alabama."[T]he entire southeast portion of the United States is at risk," U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) biologist Amy Yackel Adams told National Geographic. "Much of this area has a climate that is suitable for tegus."For scientists, the tegus' eating habits are the most concerning aspect as they spread. The lizards, which are native to South America and up to four-feet long, consume everything from eggs and small birds to low-growing fruit. In Venezuela, they are nicknamed lobo pollero, or "the chicken wolf," for their habit of stealing eggs from chicken coops. In the U.S., they could pose an additional hazard to the eggs of threatened or endangered species like the Eastern indigo snake.Protecting native wildlife is a major concern in Georgia, where the tegus have been spotted mostly in Tattnall and Toombs counties, Discover reported."They are very efficient predators of our native fauna that don't recognize them as predators," Georgia Southern University biology professor Lance McBrayer told Discover. Of special concern are ground-nesting birds such as quails and the gopher tortoise, which is the Georgia state reptile, Smithsonian Magazine reported.

Three Rare Cat Species in Southeast Asia May Go Extinct Unless Better Protected - Misunderstanding the needs of how to protect three rare cat species in Southeast Asia may be a driving factor in their extinction, according to a recent study.  Only six to 11 percent of the habitat used by the fishing cat, leopard cat and rusty-spotted cat is currently protected, based on findings published in the journal Scientific Reports by researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden.  All three species are endemic to the Indian subcontinent, comprising India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan and the Maldives. Over a third of the world's wild felines call the region home, and the three species studied share a common cat ancestor. There are no current population figures on the rare cats as they are extremely difficult to find, even with state-of-the-art camera traps. But the fishing cat, about twice the size of an average house cat, may no longer have a home, as its preferred habitat — mangrove swamps and coastal wetlands — are increasingly eradicated for development. Since 2016 the species has been listed as "Vulnerable" on the IUCN Red List. "This study is important because it shows that many small, rare and elusive cats in the Indian subcontinent don't get as much attention as the more spectacular big cats. Nevertheless, the need to protect them is just as pressing," said Mats Björklund, a professor emeritus of Zooecology at Uppsala University, in a statement about the findings. The leopard cat is also a victim of habitat destruction, but its environment ranges from shrub land and low-lying forests to inland wetlands, and populations are steadier than those of the fishing cat. Part of the study identified which ecological conditions each species preferred, using computer algorithms to predict their numbers and locations in favored areas. The rusty-spotted cat is one of the smallest wild cat species in the world and mostly spends its time in the deciduous forests of India and Sri Lanka. It is listed as "Near Threatened" on the IUCN Red List, due to increased farmland use of its home. "Species like the rusty-spotted cat exist only in this region, so to ensure we don't lose them it's essential to create more protected areas,"

Critically Endangered North Atlantic Right Whale Baby Found Dead in North Carolina - An extremely rare North Atlantic right whale calf was found dead off the North Carolina coast on Friday.  The male calf was also the first documented birth this calving season, a development the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) called devastating.  "Each new right whale calf brings so much hope for this critically endangered species, and losses like this have a substantial impact on their recovery," NOAA wrote in a press release.  National Park Service workers discovered the whale on North Core Banks, the northernmost of three barrier islands that comprise the Cape Lookout National Seashore in North Carolina. On Saturday, a team of biologists came to conduct a necroscopy on the animal and take a DNA sample in order to determine its mother, Cape Lookout National Seashore explained on its Facebook page. "Right Whales are critically endangered and are one of the rarest marine mammals," the seashore wrote. The cause of death is not yet known, but NOAA said that there was no evidence human activity was a factor,CNN reported. Initial reports suggest the baby died either during birth or soon after. The sad discovery comes little less than a month after a grim NOAA report found there are no more than 366 North Atlantic right whales left. The whales have been suffering from an "unusual mortality event" since 2017, NOAA said Monday. The agency has documented at least 32 deaths and 13 injuries during this event, more than 10 percent of the whales' remaining population. The leading causes of these deaths are vessel strikes and entanglements in fishing gear.

More than 120 whales perish in mass stranding on Chatham Islands, New Zealand - A mass stranding on the Chatham Islands in New Zealand has resulted in the deaths of over 120 whales-- 26 of which had to be euthanized, according to the Department of Conservation (DoC), which said it was notified of the event on Sunday, November 22, 2020. On Wednesday, November 25, the DoC reported that a total of 97 pilot whales and three dolphins have died in the stranding. "Only 26 of the whales were still alive at this point, the majority of them appearing very weak, and were euthanized due to the rough sea conditions and almost certainty of there being great white sharks in the water which are brought in by a stranding like this," said DOC Biodiversity Ranger Jemma Welch. Welch added that due to the remote location and power outages, the rangers arrived at Waitangi West Beach in the afternoon. Sam Wild, a diver and photographer on the Chathams, first heard of the stranding when authorities told local divers to get out of the water as there was a heightened risk from visiting great white sharks. He described the scene as "very sad and emotional." According to DoC, mass strandings are reasonably common on the Chatham Islands.  The reason behind the occurrence has marine biologists puzzled for years, but DoC said factors that contribute to it may be sickness, geographical features, navigational error, a rapidly falling tide, being chased by a predator, or extreme weather.

Just 1% of Farms Control 70% of Global Farmland: Study Finds 'Shocking State of Land Inequality' - A new report released Tuesday details the "shocking" state of global land equality, saying the problem is worse than thought, rising, and "cannot be ignored." Among the key findings is that the largest 1% of the world's farms operate 70% of farmland and "form the core of production for the corporate food system." What's more, "given the trends in the agriculture and food systems, land consolidation will inevitably increase further." The warning is laid out in "Uneven Ground: land inequality at the heart of unequal societies." Released by the International Land Coalition in collaboration with Oxfam, the publication synthesizes new research and existing data and shows how land inequality is linked with other issues including poverty, intergenerational justice and migration, environmental degradation, and the climate crisis. "These findings radically alter our understanding of the extent and far reaching consequences land inequality has, proving that not only is it a bigger problem than we thought but it's undermining the stability and development of sustainable societies," said Ward Anseeuw, a co-author of the report. According to the analysis, the issue of land inequality should encompass a broader range of dimensions than typically used to capture not only differences in land ownership but other factors such as the size and quality of land and the ability to have real decision-making power over how the land is used. The report lays out the scope of the issue:  Land is a common good, providing water, food, and natural resources that sustain all life. It is the guarantor of biodiversity, health, resilience, and equitable and sustainable livelihoods. It is immovable, non-renewable, and inextricably connected to people and societies. How we manage and control land has shaped our economies, political structures, communities, cultures, and beliefs for thousands of years. "What we're seeing is that land inequality is fundamentally a product of elite control, corporate interests, and political choices. And although the importance of land inequality is widely accepted, the tools to address it remain weakly implemented and vested interests in existing land distribution patterns, hard to shift,"

Pebble Mine Denied Permit in Victory for Tribes, Waterways and Planet - Environmental campaigners stressed the need for the incoming Biden White House to put in place permanent protections for Alaska's Bristol Bay after the Trump administration on Wednesday denied a permit for the proposed Pebble Mine that threatened "lasting harm to this phenomenally productive ecosystem" and death to the area's Indigenous culture.  In its record of decision on the long-fought industrial gold and copper mining project, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers cited "Section 404 of the Clean Water Act and Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act," the Anchorage Daily News reported.  "USACE determined that the applicant's plan for the discharge of fill material does not comply with Clean Water Act guidelines and concluded that the proposed project is contrary to the public interest." The decision was hailed by a chorus of conservation groups. "Sometimes a project is so bad, so indefensible, that the politics fall to the wayside and we get the right decision," said SalmonState executive director Tim Bristol. "That is what happened today."  "The Pebble Mine was always the wrong mine in the wrong place," said Adam Kolton, executive director of Alaska Wilderness League. "The fact that President Trump resurrected and promoted it prior to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ultimately denying the permit isn't worth dwelling on," he said, referring to the president'sintervention in the matter. World Wildlife Fund previously released a video explaining "why the proposed mine doesn't stand up to a fact check." The group described Bristol Bay as "the lifeblood that sustains every species calling the region home," including harbor seals, hundreds of bird species, and brown bear. The watershed is also critically important to tribes and the salmon upon which they've relied for millennium. Bristol Bay also hosts the planet's most productive salmon fishery.

Speculative heat keeps copper market bubbling (Reuters) - The copper price hit a fresh 2020 high on Tuesday morning.  London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month metal extended its remarkable recovery from the March lockdown lows of $4,371 to $7,331 per tonne, the highest trade since June 2018. The strength of China’s manufacturing rebound and the country’s seemingly insatiable appetite for imports of refined copper are the fundamental bedrock of copper’s 2020 turnaround. But funds are now increasingly in the driving seat with investor positioning at or near historical highs on both the CME and LME contracts. As speculative momentum keeps building, so too does the risk of a reality-check on the current exuberance. The change in positioning on the copper market since the depths of the COVID-19 crisis in the first quarter of 2020 has dominated the scale of the physical surplus by a factor of ten to one, according to analysts at Citi. (“Metals Weekly”, Nov. 23, 2020) Funds, in other words, have not only absorbed the physical impact of the pandemic but are now overwhelming it, becoming the primary price driver. Citi like other players has evolved its own methodology for tracking speculative flows through the copper market. But the funds’ collective buy-in to copper is clear to see in the Commitments of Traders Reports (COTR). Money managers were net long of the CME copper contract to the tune of 78,865 contracts as of the close of business last Tuesday (Nov. 17), according to the latest U.S. COTR. Positioning has oscillated gently over the last couple of weeks as the copper price marked time over the extended U.S. election process. In broad brush terms, funds are still holding historically high levels of long positions with outright shorts continuing to run at very subdued levels. The LME’s COTR, meanwhile, shows investment fund long positions at their highest level since the exchange started publishing the report in its current format at the start of 2018. Money managers have flipped from collective net short of 19,000 contracts in March to a current net long of 38,000 contracts. There’s been a similar surge of long positions in the “other financial” category of the report.

 Trump Admin Is Rushing to Mine Sacred Tribal Land in Arizona - In yet another attack on the environment before leaving office, the Trump administration is seeking to transfer ownership of San Carlos Apache holy ground in Oak Flat, Arizona, to a copper mining company. The administration pushed to finish the environmental review process, a necessary step to transfer ownership to copper mining company Resolution Copper, and its two parent companies Rio Tinto and BHP, to December 2020, almost a full year ahead of the planned completion. "The Trump administration is cutting corners and doing a rushed job just to take care of Rio Tinto," Democratic Arizona representative Raúl Grijalva told The Guardian. Grijalva has been outspoken in hisopposition to the mine plans. "And the fact they are doing it during Covid makes it even more disgusting. Trump and Rio Tinto know the tribes' reaction would be very strong and public under normal circumstances but the tribes are trying to save their people right now," Grijalva said. Oak Flat is a high desert wonderland full of rock spires, choppy hills, ancient oaks, medicinal plants and long stretches of desert flatland. It contains many Indigenous archaeological sites dating back 1,500 years, and is near Tonto National Forest, the largest of six national forests in Arizona. For centuries, the Apache have considered the site holy, using the area for ceremonies. It is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.  However, what is estimated to be one of the world's largest copper deposits resides 7,000 feet underneath the site. If mining proceeds, more than 11 miles of Indigenous sacred sites, burial grounds and petroglyphs would be destroyed, The Guardian reported. Not only that, but Resolution Copper intends to extract 1.4 metric tons of ore, which would create a crater stretching almost two miles wide and 1,000 feet deep.  The move marks one of many attempts by the outgoing administration to keep pushing for environmental rollbacks as it leaves office, including opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling and weakening migratory bird protections. "We are looking at the destruction of some of the Apache's most significant cultural and historic sites with this project," Kathryn Leonard, an Arizona state historic preservation officer, told The Guardian."Our preservation laws are not set up to prevent this level of loss. It weighs heavily on me."

 Powerful tornadoes and heavy rains cause widespread damage in northern parts of Turkish Cyprus -Severe weather, including tornadoes, strong winds, and heavy rains pounded the northern parts of the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC) on Friday, November 20, 2020, causing widespread damage. Power lines, rooftops, and trees were ripped off, and three people sustained injuries due to falling debris. Coastal settlements of Ozanköy, Çatalköy, Karşıyaka, and Lapta Hotels Region were particularly affected by strong winds that blew roofs, knocked down trees, and damaged power grids. Turkish Cyprus' main electricity plant, the Teknecik Power Plant, was significantly affected as a transformer exploded, resulting in blackouts in the town of Girne and adjacent areas. Girne District Governor Sinan Güne announced that the town's Civil Defence Directorate has established a crisis desk to oversee the emergency services' response.  The tornadoes brought down trees, power grids, and several poles, which fell on buildings and cars, inflicting damage.  Vehicles were flipped over by strong winds, while many roofs were ripped off. Three people sustained minor injuries after being hit by falling objects.  Flooding was also reported from Yeşilırmak in the west, through to Yenierenköy in the eastern district of Karpaz, due to heavy rains.

Massive floods hit Israel after one of the rainiest days in the country's history - Dozens of people were rescued in several parts of Israel after exceptionally heavy rains triggered severe flooding from Friday, November 20 through Sunday, November 22, 2020. Up to 230 mm (9 inches) of rain fell in some parts of the country in just 24 hours, surpassing the average for the month of November of 70 mm (3 inches). Heavy rains came after a completely dry October. In Tel Aviv, the Israel Fire and Rescue Services saved an elderly couple, three other people, and a family stranded by rising floodwaters in their houses and car, in three separate incidents. Some 20 more people were also rescued from several buildings on Ha'atzma'ut Street in Ness Ziona on Saturday, November 21, after floods engulfed parking lots and houses. In Haifa, rescue workers saved numerous people in Kiryat Eliezer, Bat Galim, and Ein Hayam, where flooding blocked many roads and streets.   According to local media, between 100 and 150 mm (4 and 6 inches) fell over the weekend in some parts of the country, which is more than two months' worth of rain as the average amount for November ranges between 50 and 70 mm (2 and 3 inches).  Climatologist Maximiliano Herrera noted as well that the Mount Carmel area saw up to 230 mm (9 inches) on Friday, November 20-- the highest since 1998. The day was also one of the rainiest days in the country's history. Meanwhile, Mount Hermon in the north received its first snow of the season.

At least 17 fatalities after floods and landslides hit Antioquia, Colombia - At least 17 people have been killed, 12 were injured and more than 10 remain missing after several days of heavy rain caused floods and landslides in northwestern Colombia. A landslide hit the village of Cachirime in Puerto Valdivia, Antioquia in the early morning hours of Monday, November 23, leaving at least 10 people dead and 12 injured, as well as damaged properties and infrastructure. Search and rescue teams are still looking for 15 missing people. Anibal Gaviria, the governor of Antioquia, said the road linking the city of Medellin to the Atlantic Coast is impassable due to the landslide and urged citizens to use alternate routes. Landslides in other parts of Antioquia also claimed the lives of 2 men on Sunday, November 22, and left one woman missing. The Colombian Meteorological Institute (IDEAM) has issued orange alerts for landslides over most of the central-western areas of Colombia. On November 24 and 25, rainfall is forecast over most of Colombia, including Valdivia. According to officials, the rainy season has so far produced at least 150 flood events, 140 landslides and caused more than 30 rivers to overflow, leaving more than 30 people dead across the country and 60 000 displaced.

Labrador buried in record-breaking, paralyzing snow, Canada - A two-day blizzard that started Monday, November 23, brought record-breaking snow of up to 75 cm (30 inches) to Labrador, Canada, resulting in the closure of roads and offices, canceled flights, and suspended classes.According to Environment Canada meteorologist David Neil, up to 75 cm (30 inches) of snow covered the Happy Valley-Goose Bay-- its second-largest two-day snowfall. The record stands at 91 cm (36 inches) set on January 14 and 15 in 2006. About 46.6 cm (18.3 inches) of snow fell in the area on Tuesday, smashing the town's past single-day November record of 40.6 cm (16 inches) registered in 1944, Neil added. According to the Weather Network, this was the fifth time in the town's history since records started in 1942 that it registered more than 70 cm (27.5 inches) of snow. At one point during the blizzard, snow was falling at an unprecedented rate of 5 to 10 cm (2 to 4 inches) an hour.Strong winds with gusts between 80 and 90 km/h (50 and 56 mph) made for hazardous travel conditions, prompting Environment Canada to issue blizzard warnings. The snow paralyzed many parts of Labrador, forcing closures of roads, canceling flights, and suspending classes and offices. "Blizzard warnings are issued when widespread reduced visibilities of 400 m (1 300 feet) or less are expected for at least 4 hours," the warning said.The extreme weather conditions were due to a potent low, which had already hit Ontario and Quebec last weekend and also brought heavy rains and strong winds to Newfoundland through Tuesday.In early November, a strong low-pressure system brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts of the Canadian Prairies, setting all-time November snow records.Kindersley recorded 11.6 cm (4.5 inches) and 35.8 cm (14 inches) on November 7 and 8, respectively-- breaking the previous 24-hour snowfall record of 21.3 cm (8.3 inches) set on March 17, 1974.

Punishing hurricanes to spur more Central American migration (AP) — At a shelter in this northern Honduran city, Lilian Gabriela Santos Sarmiento says back-to-back hurricanes that hit with devastating fury this month have overturned her life. Her home in what was once a pretty neighborhood in nearby La Lima was destroyed by flooding. “If there’s a caravan, I’m going," she said, referring to the large groups of migrants who make the arduous journey together, often on foot. Inside shelters and improvised camps across Central America, families who lost everything in the severe flooding set off by the two major hurricanes are arriving at the same conclusion. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, more than 4.3 million Central Americans, including 3 million Hondurans, were affected by Hurricane Eta alone. Those numbers only rose when Iota, another Category 4 storm, hit the region last week. The hurricanes' destruction comes on top of the economic paralysis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the persistent violence and lack of jobs that have driven families north from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in great numbers during recent years. Add an element of hope from the incoming government of President-elect Joe Biden, and experts predict the region is on the verge of another mass migration. “This is going to be much bigger than what we have been seeing,” said Jenny Arguello, a sociologist in San Pedro Sula who studies migration flows. “I believe entire communities are going to leave.”It’s still early. Tens of thousands remain in shelters, but those along the migration route have already started to see storm victims begin to trickle north. Eta made landfall Nov. 3 in Nicaragua, leaving a path of death and destruction from Panama to Mexico. Iota hit the same stretch of Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast Nov. 16, pouring more rain on still flooded countries. At least 150 people were killed and more than 100 remain missing.   Among the hardest-hit areas was Honduras’ north, the country's most productive agricultural region. The Sula Valley reported massive crop losses raising fears of food shortages. Damaged businesses mean fewer jobs. Thousands of homes were destroyed and the infamous gang violence has not relented. Some residents around San Pedro Sula reported gangs charging a tax to boats trying to rescue people from flooded neighborhoods.

 Extreme heatwave conditions and record temperatures expected across south and southeast Australia Severe heatwave conditions are forecast across much of inland South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria over the coming days, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned on Wednesday, November 25, 2020. The mercury is also expected to smash all-time spring and November temperature records in some areas. The agency said the heat may bring fire hazards in the Northern Rivers region and the Great Dividing Range. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be 15 to 18 °C (27 to 33 °F) above the average, with temperatures soaring into the mid or high 40s (°C) (95 - 104 °F) for inland parts of South Australia and New South Wales on Friday through Sunday, November 27 through 29. BOM meteorologist Dean Narramore said while the heat is normal for this time of the year as the country approaches the start of summer, it's notable as temperatures reaching up to 20 °C (36 °F) above average in some locations could equal or exceed November temperature records. Heat is building across much of Australia and will increase further across much of southern Australia on Thursday, November 26 with temperatures up to 12 °C (21.6 °F) above average. Friday through the weekend will be the peak of the heat for much of the southeast inland as temperatures soar up to 18 °C (32.4 °F) above average over multiple days. Sky News Weather meteorologist Tom Saunders warned that the heatwave will be "blistering," and Australians are "looking at a wave of extreme weather." All-time spring records may be broken as severe heatwave conditions are likely for much of inland South Australia, NWS, and northern Victoria.

  Somalia's Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded Could Drop 2 Years' Rain In 2 Days - The strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the northern Indian Ocean has made landfall in eastern Africa, where it is poised to drop two years' worth of rain in the next two days. Tropical Cyclone Gati made landfall in Somalia on Sunday with sustained winds of around 105 mph. It's the first recorded instance of a hurricane-strength system hitting the country. At one point before landfall, Gati's winds were measured at 115 mph. "Gati is the strongest tropical cyclone that has been recorded in this region of the globe; further south than any category 3-equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean," said Sam Lillo, a researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Physical Sciences Laboratory. Its intensification from about 40 mph to 115 mph was "the largest 12-hour increase on record for a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean," Lillo added. One reason Gati intensified so quickly is because the size of the cyclone itself is quite small, Lillo said. The warm water in the area coupled with low wind shear also contributed to the rapid strengthening, Accuweather reported.  "With climate change we're seeing warmer ocean temperatures and a more moist atmosphere that's leading to a greater chance of rapid intensification for tropical cyclones like Gati," meteorologist and climate journalist Eric Holthaus told NPR. "Gati's strength is part of that broader global pattern of stronger storms."  And those storms are leading to a lot more rain. Northern Somalia usually gets about 4 inches of rain per year; data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show Gati could bring 8 inches over the next two days — "two years worth of rainfall in just two days," Holthaus said. Some isolated areas could see even more than that.

Gati is the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in Somalia and the strongest ever recorded in this part of the world Tropical Cyclone "Gati" made landfall over Cape Hafun, Puntland, Somalia at around 15:00 UTC on November 22, 2020, with a maximum 3-minute average wind speed of 130 - 140 km/h (80 - 87 mph) -- Very Severe Cyclonic Storm / equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. According to the JTWC, 1-minute maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall were 167 km/h (103 mph). Gati is the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall in Somalia and the strongest ever recorded in this part of the planet -- further south than any category 3 equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, according to Sam Lillo, a researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Physical Sciences Laboratory. In addition, its rapid intensification from 65 km/h (40 mph) to 185 km/h (115 mph) in just 12 hours is the largest on record in the entire basin. Puntland state authorities are reporting 8 casualties, as of early Monday morning (UTC), severe flooding, collapsed homes, communications cut off and fishing boats capsized. At least 5 Yemeni fishermen were killed on Sunday evening in the coastal strip of the state. The center of Gati has now exited land and its maximum sustained winds, according to the JTWC, have weakened from peak 185 km/h (115 mph) at 06:00 UTC on November 22 to 75 km/h (45 mph) at 06:00 UTC on November 23. The storm is moving WNW at 15 km/h (9 mph). W to WSW motion is expected over the next 24 hours along the northern coast of Somalia. Meteorologists warned parts of the state might receive two years' worth of rain or more in just 48 hours. Northern Somalia's average annual rainfall is 102 mm (4 inches). ​Gati formed early November 22 in the Arabian Sea, just east of Somalia, as the 3rd named storm of the below-average 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

 Gati leaves a trail of destruction after making historic landfall in Somalia - Tropical Cyclone "Gati" made historic landfall in Somalia on November 22, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 170 km/h (105 mph) - category 2 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale - making it the strongest storm to hit Somalia since satellite records began 50 years ago. The cyclone brought more than a year's worth of rain to the region in 48 days and left at least 8 people dead in Somalia. At least 5 Yemeni fishermen have died after their ship was caught in the storm near the coast of Somalia. According to UNOCHA, 42 000 people have been displaced in Bari Region (27 000 in Bossaso Town), 180 000 were affected, and 3 800 shelters destroyed. The storm left behind significant physical and economic damage, especially in the Bari region, FAO reports. More than 700 houses were destroyed, several boats and fishing gears damaged, and loss of a large number of livestock. This has led to the loss of livelihood for most families and may take time and huge financial input to replace the loss, FAO said. GPM's IMERG estimated much of the region received more than double it usually sees in a whole year (100 mm / 4 inches in 12 months). The city of Bosaso, one of the worst-hit areas, reported 128 mm (5 inches) of rain in 24 hours. Gati formed early November 22 in the Arabian Sea, just east of Somalia, as the 3rd named storm of the below-average 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. It entered history as the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall in Somalia and the strongest ever recorded in this part of the planet -- further south than any category 3 equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, according to Sam Lillo, a researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Physical Sciences Laboratory. In addition, its rapid intensification from 65 km/h (40 mph) to a peak of 185 km/h (115 mph) in just 12 hours is the largest on record for any tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Indian Ocean.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Nivar" makes landfall in Tamil Nadu, India - Tropical Cyclone "Nivar" made landfall near Marakkanam in Tamil Nadu, some 22 km (13 miles) north of Puducherry, between 23:30 LT on November 25 and 02:30 LT on November 26, 2020 (18:00 - 21:00 UTC, November 25). It was classified as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm at the time of landfall, with an estimated wind speed of 120 to 130 km/h (75 - 80 mph) and gusts to 145 km/h (90 mph), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Early reports mention 3 fatalities. Nivar weakened into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by the time it finished the landfall process, around 21:00 UTC, and had a wind speed of 100 - 110 km/h (62 - 68 mph) and gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph). In 22 hours to 06:30 LT on November 26, Puducherry received 300 mm (11.8 inches), Cuddalore 270 mm (10.6 inches), Chidambaram 130 mm (5.1 inches), Chennai 113 mm (4.4 inches), Karaikal 96 mm (3.7 inches) and Nagapattinam 63 mm (2.4 inches). In Andhra Pradesh, Tirupati recorded 147 mm (5.7 inches), Nellore 128 mm (5 inches), and Kavali 63 mm (2.4 inches). Venkatagiri in the Nellore district received the state's highest rainfall of 245 mm (9.6 inches). Neary 138 000 people have evacuated ahead of the storm, including 28 161 children, from the low-lying areas and unsafe buildings across Tamil Nadu. Indian Navy ships, aircraft, helicopters, diving, and disaster relief teams were placed on standby. According to Atulya Mishra, additional chief secretary of Tamil Nadu, three people have lost their lives and three others were injured due to the rough weather and the subsequent damage caused by the cyclone. Nivar has also damaged 101 huts and caused about 380 trees to fall, Mishra said. The government officials in Tamil Nadu's capital Chennai said they have released water from a major reservoir and cleared fallen trees, adding that they continue to constantly monitoring four other reservoirs in anticipation of a rapid rise in water levels to avoid a repeat of 2015 flooding which killed several hundred people.

 Massive wildfire scorches half of Fraser Island - Queensland, Australia -  A massive bushfire is burning across Fraser Island off Queensland's coast, scorching up to 74 km (46 miles) as of November 23, 2020-- it has covered more than half of the 122 km (76 miles) long island since it was first reported in mid-October. Firefighters have been working to contain the blazes, noting that they need a good inch of rain to ease up the situation.​ On Sunday, November 22, the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) reported that a Large Air Tanker (LAT) was continuing its firefighting support to ground crews to contain the fire that has been burning since October. QFES said the LAT could go up to about 670 km/h (413 mph) and can get from its Bundaberg base to help crews on the area in less than 20 minutes. Officials believe that the blaze was sparked by an illegal cooking fire that was not totally extinguished. The government has had a wildfire alert issued for the island and a number of roads and camping sites have been closed. "The troops have put in a tremendous effort over the weekend," said QFES North Coast regional manager Peter Hollier on November 24. "The fire is marching to the south and potentially heading down towards the areas of Happy Valley and eventually, to Kingfisher." "We have been trying to get ahead of the fire but the terrain, the vegetation, and the weather have been against us," Hollier continued. "[In one day] they poured in just under 300 000 liters of water on the containment line only to find out the next morning it had breached." "The canopy of the vegetation is very thick. It only takes one small ember to go across that containment line that you work on for days."

Massive Asteroid Labeled By NASA As Hazardous Headed For Earth This Week --A massive asteroid the size of San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge will pass within 4,302,775 km of Earth. The asteroid is also believed to be the same height as the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa of Dubai, which is over 800m high.This asteroid, named 153201 2000 WO107, is expected to come near Earth on Sunday, November 29, at 10:09 GMT and is predicted to be going around 56,000mph.It has been classified as a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) and a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA), because it is estimated to come within 1.3 astronomical miles of Earth. NASA keeps track of all of the asteroids that they can find in space, but any object within 7.5 million kilometers of Earth, that is also over 150m wide, is listed as “potentially hazardous,” by the space agency. The vast majority of the asteroids that are listed as potentially hazardous pass by earth safely.

Biggest sunspot in years producing multiple B- and C-class solar flares Although solar activity remains at low levels, Active Region 2786 -- the biggest sunspot in years -- has produced multiple C- and B-class flares since November 25. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were also observed, but none was Earth-directed. While we are still experiencing solar minimum effects, solar activity is ramping up as we head deeper into Solar Cycle 25. In total, Active Region 2786 produced 17 B-class and 8 C-class flares from November 25 to 08:00 UTC on November 28, with the strongest being C3.8 at 12:53 UTC on November 26. The region currently has Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and is capable of producing even stronger eruptions. Its position currently favors Earth-directed CMEs. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) activity was observed at the NE limb on November 26, first visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 21:24 UTC. The source region is believed to have emanated from a region of enhanced plage at, or just behind the NE limb. Dimming was visible in this area as viewed on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 imagery. Associated with this event was a C2.6 long duration event that began at 19:20 UTC on November 26, peaked at 21:23 and ended at 23:53 UTC. The CME had no Earth-directed component. A second, narrow, fast-moving CME was observed off the W limb, first visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 05:36 UTC on November 27.  Initial SWPC analysis and model run output suggested a possible glancing blow at Earth midday (UTC) on December 1, but subsequent model runs showed the event was off the Sun-Earth line.

October 2020 The Fourth Warmest On Record Globally, New Government Reports Say  - October 2020 was the Earth's 4th warmest October in 141 years of temperature records, according to a NOAA report, continuing a warming trend that keeps 2020 on pace for one of the warmest years dating to 1880. NOAA's October Global State of the Climate Report released Friday found global land and ocean temperatures were 0.85 degrees Celsius (1.53 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th-century average. [Note that global warming started before the 20th century.] This level of warmth was not felt everywhere across the globe. In fact, the global warmth is especially notable this year because of the ongoing La Niña, a widespread cooling of the southern Pacific waters west of South America. And if you're an American wondering where this October warm weather was, you are likely located in the central or northern part of the United States, which saw one of the coolest anomalies relative to the 20th-century average found anywhere on Earth. North America as a whole saw near-average temperatures. Europe, though, had its warmest October on record with a temperature departure of +3.91°F (+2.17°C). Africa, Asia and the Caribbean all saw a top-10 warmest October. NASA's report showed even warmer conditions around the globe, with global land and ocean temperatures 0.90 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1980 average. Arctic sea ice extent, an important metric that is a proxy for measuring the immediate impact of climate change since the poles are warming faster than anywhere else, was also record low, according to an analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 1.19 million square miles of ice was found in October, well below the 1981-2010 average and just below the record set last year. Sea ice volume was also record low for the month. Should current trends continue, "the year 2020 is very likely to rank among the three warmest years on record," according to NOAA.

Arctic temperatures are astonishingly warmer than they should be -Jeff Berardelli  - It's been happening for several years now, especially in the autumn, but it never ceases to unsettle meteorologists like myself: Temperatures in the Arctic are astonishingly warmer than they should be.  According to the University of Maine's Climate Reanlayzer, this weekend the Arctic Circle was an average 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. This is not just one location, but the average of all 7.7 million square miles. That is a huge area, nearly double the size of the entire United States, being on average 12 degrees above normal.  Now, it's far from toasty warm in the Arctic; temperatures are near zero in many places. But as you can see in the image below, which illustrates departures from normal, the bright red shaded patches indicate that temperatures are greater than 20 degrees Celsius (30-40 degrees F) above where they should be at this time of year. The Arctic is more than 12 degrees above normal. Repeat: the average for the entire Arctic is 12 degrees above what was normal in 1990. Would be even more extreme compared to pre-industrial. pic.twitter.com/lC6ruo5Wdr   "It's all but becoming an annual reminder of the rapid climate change we have observed in the Arctic," explains Dr. Zack Labe, an Arctic climate specialist from Colorado State University. While the pace of global warming is the fastest we have seen in millions of years, nowhere is it warming faster than the Arctic. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising at three times the pace of the rest of the globe. In 2020, Arctic warming is among the highest levels yet.  The rapid warming trend in the Arctic can be traced to the unique makeup of the Arctic Ocean, which is rapidly changing. The Arctic is mainly ocean covered by millions of square miles of sea ice most of the year. But since the 1970s, sea ice extent has been decreasing quickly and sea ice volume has dropped by two-thirds. Each year Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum in September. This year was the second lowest on record. While that in itself is significant, what happened next was even more surprising. The recovery of sea ice stalled for a few weeks, with October breaking records for the lowest sea ice extent on record. This resulted in the Northeast Passage along the Siberian coast, which used to be rarely ever open, remaining passable for a record 112 days, shattering the old record by about a month.

Climate Change Leads to More Young People Drowning in Icy Regions, Study Finds - Warmer winters caused by climate change are leading to more drownings, especially among young people, according to a new study from York University.   “In this study, we also looked at who was drowning, when, and what kind of activities they were doing at the time,” lead researcher Sapna Sharma said in a news release about the study. “Almost 50 percent of drowning victims are children less than 9 years old playing on the ice, while the majority of victims drowning while in vehicles, such as snowmobiles, are young adults less than 24 years old.”  The study, published in the journal PLOS One, examined 4,000 drownings in 10 countries, including Canada, Russia, Finland, Germany, Sweden and the United States. It found warming winter air temperatures were a good predictor of the number of drownings.   The research showed winter drownings increased exponentially in regions with warmer winters when air temperatures got close to 32° Fahrenheit (0°C). The largest number of drownings happened when winter air temperatures were between 23° (-5°C) and 32° when ice is less stable. The rates of drowning were greatest late in the winter season when ice stability declines.  The drownings are also most frequent in regions where indigenous traditions and livelihood require extended time on ice.   “Because we also examine trends in lake ice over hundreds of years, we know that ice-on is much later in the season and ice-off is much earlier. We are seeing these trends in lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere and we found that the highest number of drowning events correspond to these times of ice-off and ice-on,” said Sharma, an associate professor of science at the university in Toronto.  “Lake ice is important as we have strong traditions for going out on the ice to skate or ice fish, and for some, it’s important for survival, such as through the construction of ice roads in northern communities that are the only way to get resources in the winter.”

Ivanka Trump knows nothing about how greenhouse gases work - In a tweet about greenhouse gases, Ivanka Trump has redefined ignorance.  On Tuesday, the president's daughter, an official adviser to the president, tweeted about a huge drop in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions (9.2 percent) this year. She tagged the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the tweet, apparently proud of the Trump administration for reigning over a notable fall in heat-trapping carbon emissions.  What the tweet fails to explicate, and perhaps Ivanka Trump fails to comprehend, is that carbon emissions fell significantly in 2020 because of the largely uncontrolled COVID-19 disease outbreak in the U.S., not bold actions by President Donald Trump's administration to radically curb carbon emissions. (In laughable contrast, this administration selected a dubious climate adviser who believes the planet is in dire need of more CO2.)  The 9.2 percent drop Ivanka Trump references is taken from a recent energy reportpublished by the research organization BloombergNEF. The researchers found that amid a pandemic that's killed well over a quarter of a million Americans, emissions from the transportation sector (unsurprisingly) plummeted dramatically by some 14 percent. For much of the year, many Americans stayed home and often limited travel to avoid spreading the coronavirus, a microbial parasite that uses hosts (us) to spread. What's more, BloombergNEF estimated that emissions from the U.S. power sector fell by over 10 percent, along with a drop of close to 7 percent in the industrial sector as demand in the greater economy sagged. Yet, Bloomberg expects emissions to rebound in the coming years as the pandemic wanes.  In a dark way, the Trump administration did unwittingly usher in a big drop in carbon emissions, the largest decline since the early 1980s, according to BloombergNEF, by allowing the virus to infect millions of Americans. Though billions in taxpayer dollars have been used to incentivize the rapid creation of vaccines ("Operation Warp Speed"), there has been no coherent, coordinated national plan to curb the coronavirus as it surged through the population multiple times this year.

Surge in greenhouse gases sustained despite COVID lockdowns: U.N. (Reuters) - Greenhouse gas concentrations climbed to a new record in 2019 and rose again this year despite an expected drop in emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns, the World Meteorological Organization said on Monday, warning against complacency. Many scientists expect the biggest annual fall in carbon emissions in generations this year as measures to contain coronavirus have grounded planes, docked ships and kept commuters at home. However, the WMO described the projected 2020 drop as a “tiny blip” and said the resulting impact on the carbon dioxide concentrations that contribute to global warming would be no bigger than normal annual fluctuations. “...In the short-term the impact of the COVID-19 confinements cannot be distinguished from natural variability,” the WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin said. The annual report released by the Geneva-based U.N. agency measures the atmospheric concentration of the gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide - that are warming our planet and triggering extreme weather events. Levels of carbon dioxide, a product of burning fossil fuels that is the biggest contributor to global warming, touched a new record of 410.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2019, it said. The annual increase is larger than the previous year and beats the average over the last decade. “Such a rate of increase has never been seen in the history of our records,” WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said, referring to a rise of 10 ppm since 2015, calling for a “sustained flattening of the (emissions) curve”. WMO’s head of atmospheric environment research Dr. Oksana Tarasova said the magnitude of the increase in carbon dioxide levels over the past four years was comparable to changes seen during the shift from ice age to more temperate periods but, back then, the transition happened over a much longer timeframe.

Climate crisis: CO2 hits new record despite Covid-19 lockdowns - Climate-heating gases have reached record levels in the atmosphere despite the global lockdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has said.There is estimated to have been a cut in emissions of between 4.2% and 7.5% in 2020 due to the shutdown of travel and other activities. But the WMO said this was a “tiny blip” in the continuous buildup of greenhouse gases in the air caused by human activities, and less than the natural variation seen year to year.The WMO report said the monthly average CO2 for September at thebenchmark station of Mauna Loa in Hawaii was 411.3ppm, up from 408.5ppm in September 2019. The same was seen at Cape Grim in Tasmania, Australia, with a rise to 410.8ppm from 408.6ppm in 2019. It said there had been a “growth spurt” in the average CO2 level for the whole of 2019, rising by more than the average rate over the last decade. The data shows action to cut emissions is currently far from what is needed to avoid the worst impacts of the climate emergency. Scientists calculate that emissions must fall by half by 2030 to give a good chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C, beyond which hundreds of millions of people will face more heatwaves, droughts, floods and poverty. Nations had pledged to ramp up their emissions cuts at a UN summit in Glasgow this month but the meeting has been postponed by a year due to Covid-19. “The lockdown-related fall in emissions is just a tiny blip on the long-term graph. We need a sustained flattening of the curve,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO secretary-general. “We breached the global [annual] threshold of 400ppm in 2015 and, just four years later, we have crossed 410ppm. Such a rate of increase has never been seen in the history of our records. “CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration was 3m-5m years ago, when the temperature was 2-3C warmer and sea level was 10-20 metres higher than now. But there weren’t 7.7 billion [human] inhabitants.” The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, published on Monday, shows CO2 in the atmosphere is now 50% higher than in 1750, before the Industrial Revolution. CO2 traps two-thirds of the heat retained on the Earth’s surface by greenhouse gases, and this warming effect has increased by 45% since 1990.

Biden names Kerry as U.S. climate envoy, emphasizing diplomacy's role in the issue - (Reuters) - President-elect Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry as special climate envoy, his transition team said on Monday, a sign that Biden is putting the issue at the center of his foreign policy. Kerry, whose appointment does not require U.S. Senate confirmation, will have a seat on the National Security Council in the White House, the transition team said, marking the first time an official in that body will be dedicated to the climate issue. Biden has pledged to reverse course on climate from President Donald Trump, who doubts mainstream climate science. Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 Paris agreement on climate, and dismantled Obama-era climate and environmental regulations to boost drilling, mining and manufacturing. While secretary of state under former President Barack Obama, Kerry, 76, called climate change “the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.” In travels from glaciers in Greenland to the Solomon Islands, Kerry has emphasized cooperation on tackling climate change. He will face a challenging task gaining the world’s trust after Trump’s rejection of climate diplomacy. As Trump blasted the Paris agreement as being too expensive for Americans, China, the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter, positioned itself as a catalyst on climate, announcing new targets in September to cut pollution.Before the landmark Paris agreement, Kerry pushed for China and the United States, the world’s second-leading emitter, to agree on emissions targets and work toward a global deal. Kerry, who was also a longtime liberal senator from Massachusetts and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, will likely get a quick start as Biden has pledged to rejoin the Paris agreement soon after he comes into office.

Biden Picks John Kerry to Help Regain Global Leadership on Climate Change —In tapping John Kerry as a special envoy for climate change, President-elect Joe Biden is looking to capitalize on the former secretary of state’s international relationships to show foreign leaders that the U.S. is again taking the issue seriously. Mr. Kerry, a former secretary of state who oversaw U.S. negotiations on the Paris climate accord for the Obama administration, would become the first person appointed to the White House role. The foreign-policy-focused position includes a seat on the National Security Council. The Biden team sees Mr. Kerry as someone whose familiarity with world leaders can boost the prospects for global climate negotiations slated for the coming months. Mr. Biden has said he wants the U.S. to host a climate summit, and his administration faces negotiations on new initiatives and commitments to reduce emissions at coming forums through the Group of Seven, the Group of 20 and the United Nations. “They need to have someone like Kerry to pull that together, someone with gravitas,” said George David Banks, a former adviser to President Trump on climate issues. “He would be the most senior U.S. official to have ever been the point person on climate change.” It would bring Mr. Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat who turns 77 next month, back into government in hopes his lengthy experience can produce quick results. Mr. Biden has promised action at a time when scientists say world governments must do better at rapidly reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to avoid potentially disastrous increases in global temperatures. Part of Mr. Kerry’s challenge will be to rebuild relationships left dormant or damaged by the Trump administration’s pivot away from international climate agreements. Mr. Trump pulled the country out of the Paris pact, saying it hurt U.S. industry and threatened U.S. workers. Mr. Biden has said he plans to rejoin it, saying the U.S. can thrive by shifting to cleaner fuels and slowing climate change. During the past decade, U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions levels have fallen back to what was common in the 1990s. But progress has slowed in recent years, and emissions even increased in 2018, according to the most recent data available from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Biden-Harris Climate Plan: ‘Not Trump’ Is Not Enough -- Joe Biden's election is a huge positive in a year that has been extremely difficult across the globe. I speak for a vast number of people who watched anxiously from outside the United States when I heartily thank those who mobilized, campaigned and voted to make it happen. Your hard work affects us all. But we're not at the end of the line. Far from it. Biden shows promise, but there can be no backsliding and or watering down. In fact, the ambition needs to grow. Now is the time for truly bold vision, leadership and action. For instance, Biden has said repeatedly that he will not ban fracking, a destructive and polluting practice that uses high-pressure injections of water, chemicals and sand to suck yet more fossil fuels from the ground. Instead he turns to carbon capture to offset these emissions, a plan that relies on untested technology and does nothing to deal with fracking's methane release, water pollution and health issues.  He can and must do better. And there are two key areas where he can focus to help push transformative climate action: jobs and justice.  A transformation to sustainability means innovation, new livelihoods, revitalization and importantly, jobs.The green economy in the United States already employs 10 times as many people as the fossil fuel industry, and Biden's plan specifically focuses on the economic opportunities that tackling climate change will bring.But climate action is not a flail that we must use to flog ourselves in penitence, seeking absolution for past sins. Action for our planet creates untold opportunities for us. It will provide different ways of living that will reimagine and reinvigorate our relationship with the natural world, making us happier and healthier.It will give us livelihoods that are truly sustainable, not based on the myth of infinite growth on a finite planet. Biden has also referenced the need for equality in climate action, setting a goal for disadvantaged communities to receive 40% of all the clean energy and infrastructure benefits his plan would generate.   Ninety-nine percent of all deaths from weather-related disasters occur in the world's 50 least developed countries — countries that have contributed less than 1% of global carbon emissions. In every nation around the world, including the United States, this is played out again on a smaller scale. We can't continue to allow the poorer, marginalized and more vulnerable communities to bear the brunt of a crisis they did not cause.

Extinction Rebellion launches campaign of financial disobedience -- Extinction Rebellion is launching a campaign of financial civil disobedience aimed at exposing the “political economy’s complicity” in the unfolding ecological crisis. The group – which has staged some of the UK’s biggest civil disobedience protests over the past two years – is turning its attention to what it says will be a sustained campaign of debt and tax strikes. It is also asking people to “redirect” loans from banks that finance fossil fuel projects to frontline organisations fighting for climate justice. Gail Bradbrook, a co-founder of XR, which was set up two years ago, said: “It’s time to tell the politicians who prop up this way of living: no more. We want an economy that grows health and wellbeing, not debt and carbon emissions. An economy that prepares and protects us from shocks to come, rather than making them worse. An economy that shares resources to meet all our needs, regardless of background. An economy that lets us live.” Organisers hope that in the coming months the “Money Rebellion” will involve thousands of people in the “redistributing debt” scheme and the debt strikes. XR says it also has a growing number of small businesses that are planning to divert a portion of their taxes to help fund investment into green, sustainable business models and initiatives rather than pay them to the government. Bradbrook said: “We need a grownup conversation about why our political economy is killing life on Earth.”  XR says the Money Rebellion is the latest stage of its campaign centred around three demands – that the UK government tells the truth about the scale of the climate and ecological emergency, that if commits to zero carbon emissions by 2025 and that it agrees to a binding citizens’ assembly to devise policies to address the crisis. The group has held three major events since its launch, bringing motor traffic in parts of central London to a standstill. Organisers say that despite its success in raising awareness of the escalating climate crisis, the government has failed to respond appropriately.

New Mexico's Haaland, possible Interior pick, calls for more clean energy on US lands — US Representative Deb Haaland, Democrat-New Mexico, who reportedly is being considered for secretary of the Interior Department by President-elect Joe Biden, said there are too many extractive industries operating on federal lands and that leasing practices should be changed to encourage more clean energy activity. Federal land policy will be "extremely critical" in the effort to mitigate climate change impacts in the next presidential administration, Haaland said in an webcast interview with Reuters during the virtual Energy Transition North America Conference. "Renewable energy is the future of our world, it's the future of our country and we need bold action on climate change," Haaland said. That is what Biden plans to do, Haaland said, adding she "wholeheartedly" supports that agenda. Federal lands currently account for roughly 25% of US carbon dioxide emissions, which means there are "far too many extractive industry leases and not enough renewable energy leases," she said. Additionally, outdoor industries like tours and hunting rely on a clean water and air, and our public lands should make sure we are moving toward clean energy, she said. Asked about the Trump administration policy of "energy dominance" extending to federal lands by making it easier to obtain leases for fossil fuel development, Haaland said leasing practices need to change. "We need to make sure we're promoting and increasing clean energy leases," she said. This administration has not only made extractive industry operations easier on public lands, they also "gutted" the watchdogs we need to make sure they are not breaking rules, Haaland said, adding that when you eliminate environmental rules "it's easier for these industries to run roughshod." New Mexico has a large methane cloud above it due to oil and gas production that impacts the health of the state's residents, she said. Haaland was one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress in 2018 and she said it is positive that the country has progressed to a place where having a Native American cabinet secretary is a possibility. However, she did not disclose whether she is being vetted for the position.

Kent State University in Ohio begins adding solar projects to all six regional campuses - Ohio’s Kent State University is in the process of adding solar projects to all six of its regional campuses by spring 2021. Melink Solar is installing panels at the Geauga Campus in Burton, Ohio, while TEN-NINE Energy is the developing the project. The ground-mounted solar photovoltaic panels will provide 322 kW of solar energy every year, providing 67% of the campus’ energy use. Solar panel structure posts were set in early November and panels are now being installed. The solar array will cover 1.27 acres along Claridon-Troy Rd., connected to the Kent State Geauga classroom building. Cost savings the first year are estimated to be $3,200, said Bob Misbrener, project manager II of sustainability, energy conservation & commissioning in the Office of the University Architect at the Kent Campus. He also estimates that cost savings over the next 25 years should be $138,682 to $242,339. Misbrener explained that this innovative Power Purchase Contract requires $0 out-of-pocket cost to Kent State. “We are required to purchase all solar power produced at a negotiated rate over the next 25 years,” he continued. The negotiated rate includes a minimum savings of 1.5 cents per kWh throughout the contract. “For Geauga Campus, that translates to minimum savings of $140,000. Total savings at all six participating regional campuses: $1,570,000!”

Electric vehicles: double, double toil and bubble -- Two more data points this wintry morning to back up our assertion last week that there’s currently the mother of all bubbles in the electric vehicle market.First up, there’s the share price of a Nasdaq-listed company called Arcimoto: Errr, what’s going on here? Well, if you don’t know the $542m business, it produces “affordable, practical, and joyful pure electric vehicles” for consumers, and are due to be delivered by DHL*. Its initial product is called the FUV (not to be confused with this article, which undoubtedly will be deemed FUD) which, believe it or not, stands for “The Fun Utility Vehicle”. The electric heir to the Reliant Robin starts at $17,900, and according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing, Arcimoto has produced 79 — yes, 79 — of them year-to-date. It promises four further vehicles, including the “Deliverator”, a delivery van, in the coming year.Yet, with just $1.5m of sales year-to-date, or $2m annualised, that puts its current EV/sales multiple at a rather aggressive 210 times trailing revenue. Investors don’t seem to think it’s too expensive though: on Friday the company announced it was raising another $15m of stock at above the market price.Arcimoto isn’t the only example. You may recall last week that Arrival, a UK-based electric vehicle manufacturer, is set to go public via yet another Spac dealwith a valuation of $5.4bn.Like Arcimoto, it’s a small company with a decent pre-order book, a promising product and some viable commercial partners, but what caught our attention was one slide in its investor presentation used to justify its future market capitalisation.Open the below in a new tab, and cast your eyes down to the bottom of the screen:  Yes, you read the correctly, there’s a brand new valuation metric for you to now add to your models: EV/ TAM. TAM being, of course, Total Addressable Market. A popular acronym with companies where the economics don’t quite add up yet.While it’s fine to compare enterprise value to a company’s annual revenues — as there’s some always some certainty that historical revenue stream will continue into the future — there is far less certainty that a company will capture some share of a market’s revenues in the future. In fact, at times there’s zero certainty. So really, expressing a company’s valuation as a percentage of its total addressable market seems about as useful as just saying “I don’t know”.

GM: New batteries cut electric car costs, increase range (AP) — General Motors says a pending breakthrough in battery chemistry will cut the price of its electric vehicles so they equal those powered by gasoline within five years. The technology also will increase the range per charge to as much as 450 miles. The company’s product development chief promised a small electric SUV that will cost less than $30,000 and pledged to roll out 30 battery-powered models worldwide by 2025. Nearly all current electric vehicles cost more than $30,000. The announcement Thursday shows how fast electric vehicle technology is evolving and how it may become the primary fuel for transportation sooner than almost anyone believed. The GM announcement is among a series of recent tipping points from internal combustion vehicles to electric. Ford and Fiat Chrysler recently announced plans to build electric vehicles and components at Canadian factories, and Volkswagen, the world’s top-selling automaker, is increasing its EV spending and models. “There’s going to be a lot more EVs coming,”  The challenge for automakers and startups has always been balancing range against battery costs, and GM appears to have gone beyond that, A “What we’re seeing now is that they’re confident enough on their costs that they think they can offer those 300-to-400 mile range vehicles, and the upfront cost is similar to internal combustion vehicles,”

Pennsylvania House votes to impose fees on electric cars (AP) — Motorists who register an electric vehicle in Pennsylvania would have to pay an annual fee, under lame-duck session legislation approved by the state’s Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Thursday. The bill, backed by a 132-70 vote, still requires Senate approval to reach the desk of Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat. Most House Republicans voted for it, while most Democrats opposed it. The provisions to impose the fee were inserted into an underlying bill just this week. The Sierra Club, which opposes the fee, said the “surprise move comes as the lame duck legislative session comes to a close, and could be fast-tracked in the Senate with minimal debate.” Opponents said it is a bad idea to impose costs on people who own electric vehicles during the climate change fight and efforts to limit greenhouse-gas exhaust from vehicles that run on gasoline. Backers of the bill, however, said it is only fair to charge people who own electric vehicles, since people who fuel their cars with gasoline are paying taxes that help build and repair roads. The money would go toward the state’s highway maintenance fund. The fee would be $75 per year for a hybrid gas-electric vehicle, $175 a year for an electric vehicle and $275 for an electric vehicle with a weight rating of more than 26,000 pounds, such as a city bus. Owners of motorcycle and neighborhood electric vehicles would pay $15 a year. House budget analysts estimated that the fees would generate millions of dollars a year, growing to $9 million in 2026. Policymakers have warned in recent years that more electric vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles on the road will eat into gas taxes that pay for road construction. House budget analysts estimated Twenty-eight states have laws requiring a special registration fee for electric vehicles while 14 states impose a fee specifically on hybrids, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

T buys hybrid buses after assurances on Chelsea - THE MBTA’S Fiscal and Management Control Board on Monday unanimously approved an $89 million contract for 45 new Silver Line buses after receiving assurances from staff members that the diesel hybrid vehicles would be able to operate on electric power as they navigate through the environmental justice community of Chelsea. The 60-foot New Flyer buses, called enhanced electric hybrids, use a diesel generator to both propel the bus forward and to charge a battery that can be tapped to operate the bus in an all-electric mode. The new vehicles, slated to arrive by summer 2022, would replace a fleet of over-the-hill buses purchased between 2004 and 2006. Several transportation advocates, including one of the T’s own bus drivers, told the control board that it should be buying all-electric buses. Ari Ofsevit, who argued against procuring the new enhanced electric hybrids in a CommonWealth op-ed, said the T shouldn’t be buying a diesel-power bus that he described as “an insidious example of ‘greenwashing.’” Silver Line buses run routes between South Station and Logan International Airport, Chelsea, and parts of the Seaport. The buses leave South Station via a tunnel that lacks the ventilation needed for a diesel-power bus. The existing Silver Line buses draw power from overhead wires in the tunnel and then shift to diesel power once they come above ground. The new buses aren’t designed to use the overhead wires, so they will operate in all-electric mode in the tunnel and then shift to their diesel engines when they come above ground. Transit advocates say the new buses will need to operate on diesel power in East Boston and Chelsea, increasing greenhouse gas emissions in those communities.

 Big Oil’s Lessons for the New Green Supermajors – WSJ - The decline of oil-and-gas supermajors over the past two years has been matched by the rise of previously obscure utility companies. In Europe, Enel ENEL 0.38% and Iberdrola IBDRY 1.64% have emerged as green-energy giants, in part by taking leaves out of the big-oil playbook. Like Shell and BP before them, the companies have built global portfolios to meet growing energy demand, only with wind and sun rather than fossil fuels. The strategy has already made them the world’s two largest renewable energy producers by capacity, but they want to get even bigger. Enel said Tuesday that it will nearly triple its capacity to 120 gigawatts by 2030. Earlier this month, Iberdrola laid plans to double its capacity to 60 gigawatts by 2025. The companies are similar to U.S. peer NextEra, which trades for much higher earnings multiples, but with an international rather than domestic footprint. The two companies share traits with the oil supermajors. They are vertically integrated: They secure government rights to many wind and solar sites; develop those projects; and then manage power plants and distribution networks. Their big, international operations provide the scale for cost efficiencies, as well as local know-how and relationships. Oil producers maintain a bank of drilling rights. Similarly, Enel and Iberdrola hold permissions to develop a large pipeline of renewable projects around the world: Enel has 141 gigawatts worth, while Iberdrola has 70 gigawatts. They continue to bid for new opportunities. There are some important differences, too. Oil projects are typically high-risk, high-return investments, while new power plants are a surer thing and generate correspondingly lower profits. Crude is a global commodity and prices are volatile. Harder-to-transport power is a much more local product, with prices often regulated or fixed by long-term contracts. That predictability helps utilities to use leverage to boost returns, while oil companies need lower debt levels to weather commodity-price cycles.

Entergy Placed Undercover Consultant to Influence MISO Stakeholder Processes - Entergy secretly placed a consultant to advance its interests in MISO stakeholder meetings under the guise of a “MISO South customer,” according to public records obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute. The consultant, Dave Harlan of Veriquest Consulting, spoke and acted on behalf of Entergy, the monopoly utility serving large parts of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) territory, and representatives of the Mississippi Public Service Commission knewof his status as a proxy for the utility.  While the agenda that Entergy asked Harlan to advance is not described in the documents obtained by EPI, Entergy may have been worried about low-cost wind energy in MISO displacing the company’s expensive legacy coal and gas units, impairing its ability to justify construction of new power plants. Harlan worked for Entergy for 17 years and retired in 2008 before starting Veriquest Consulting, according to his LinkedIn profile.MISO operates the transmission grid and coordinates the wholesale electricity market in 15 U.S. states in the center of the country, as well as the Canadian province of Manitoba, forming one of the world’s largest energy markets with more than $29 billion in annual gross market energy transactions, according to its website.Entergy’s use of what amounts to a covert agent, and the complicity of some staff of the Mississippi PSC and of MISO, raises key questions about the integrity of MISO’s stakeholder process, and the influence that powerful incumbent utilities like Entergy have to game outcomes that are favorable to their interests but may harm consumers.

Three coal-burning power plants in Colorado face orders to close early. Their owners aren’t happy about it. – The Colorado Sun - Tri-State, Xcel and Platte River Power had the closures slated for 2030. But Colorado air quality regulators say it must be done earlier to meet greenhouse gas targets.Colorado air quality regulators on Friday moved to order three coal-fired power plants to close by the end of 2028 to cut regional haze and meet Colorado greenhouse reduction targets.The operators of the three plants had all said they would voluntarily close their units by 2030, but the Air Quality Control Commission, in a preliminary decision, mandated that they close by the end of 2028. A final vote will take place in December.The three plants are Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association’s Craig Unit 3 in Moffat County; the Platte River Power Authority’s Rawhide plant north of Fort Collins; and the Colorado Springs Utilities’ Ray D. Nixon Plant.“The commission decision was significant,” said Michael Hiatt, an attorney with the environmental law group Earthjustice. “The benefits are going to be big — cleaner air, saving Coloradans money and helping to meet the 2030 greenhouse gas goals.” The proposal to speed the closures came from the Sierra Club and the National Parks Conservation Association, which also wanted the commission to order the closure of two units at Xcel Energy’s Hayden Generating Station in Routt County, which is not slated for final closure until 2036. The order was made under the federal Clean Air Act’s Regional Haze Rule, which aims to improve visibility at 156 national parks and wilderness areas, including Rocky Mountain National Park.

Indiana task force report could slow state’s transition from coal, critics fear -A new report from an Indiana legislative task force appears to lay the groundwork for justifying power-plant bailouts similar to those in Ohio and Illinois, despite assurances from state regulators and the region’s grid operator that coal plant closures do not pose a threat to grid reliability.The Indiana Legislature’s Energy Policy Development Task Force issued a long-awaited report on Thursday, after two years of studies, meetings and testimony from about 100 experts. The report was meant to examine how the shift in energy sources will affect power reliability, resiliency and other factors. “It really landed exactly where myself and others predicted,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of Citizens Action Coalition, “that it would be vague and leave the door open for more evil coal activity in the next legislative session. That’s precisely what happened.”The report’s findings and recommendations cover only three pages and raise concerns about electric grid reliability if the state shifts to renewable energy too quickly, with vague references to recent grid problems in California. During the Republican-led task force’s final meeting, when members voted to adopt the report and pass it on to the full legislature, chair State Rep. Ed Soliday said legislation has already been drafted related to reliability.“Reliability is the new code word for ‘how do we support coal?’” said Ben Inskeep, an Indianapolis resident and energy policy analyst with EQ Research who has closely followed the proceedings. Stakeholders are particularly concerned about the task force’s third recommendation, which asks the legislature to “create a mechanism … to assure generation and transmission resource adequacy throughout Indiana.” “It sounds a lot like what was done in Illinois and Ohio, in bailing out their uneconomic fleets,” Olson said, referring to supports for those states’ nuclear plants and Ohio’s coal plants. “Illinois and Ohio aren’t the same, nevertheless it reads eerily similar to creating a mechanism under the guise of reliability. In Indiana when we use the word reliability, we’re really talking about baseload, and when you’re talking about baseload in Indiana, you’re talking about coal. It leaves the door wide open for further efforts to extend the life of Indiana’s coal fleet.”

Lawmakers, Union Urge Mine Safety Regulators to Act on Silica Dust - A group of Ohio Valley senators says a watchdog agency’s recent report shows that federal regulators must do more to protect coal miners from silica dust, an especially toxic form of dust created when mining equipment cuts into rock layers near coal seams.In a Monday morning press release, six Democratic senators, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, called the findings in last week’s Inspector General’s report “extremely troubling,” saying the Mine Safety and Health Administration knew what it needed to do to lower miners’ exposure to deadly silica dust. The senators’ pressure comes after the Department of Labor’s Office of the Inspector General found that MSHA’s standards for exposure to deadly silica dust were out of date, and that the mine safety agency’s sampling methods were too infrequent to guarantee that miners were protected. “We are asking that you take immediate action to implement the recommendations contained in the OIG report,” the senators wrote in a jointly issued letter addressed to MSHA head David Zatezelo. “We further ask that you provide us with a thorough description of the measures currently being conducted by the agency to ensure that our brave and patriotic coal miners are shielded from excess exposure to silica dust on the job site.” Silica is a component in the coal dust that is released in the mining process and is a major contributor to the ongoing black lung epidemic in coal country. The shocking surge in black lung cases was first revealed by NPR. Certain coal mining practices and a higher silica content in the rock surrounding Appalachian coal make miners in the region more likely to contract the progressive and deadly disease. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has found that as many as one in five experienced Appalachian coal miners has some form of black lung disease. Traditionally considered an older miner’s disease, a growing number of young miners suffer from black lung, as well.

West Virginia Miner Killed; 6th US Coal Mining Death Of 2020 -A coal miner died Monday in a workplace accident in southern West Virginia, the governor's office said. Taylor Meldin Halstead, 20, of Bob White, was killed in the accident at Panther Mining LLC’s American Eagle Mine in the Kanawha County community of Dawes, the governor’s office said in a statement.The statement did not give details surrounding the death, which was the sixth coal mining fatality nationwide this year. There have been two deaths apiece in West Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. According to the Mine Safety and Health Administration, the fewest coal mining fatalities in a year nationally was eight in 2016.

Can 3D printing build a better, cheaper reactor faster? — A 3D-printed nuclear reactor, if built and demonstrated, could open a path to advanced commercial nuclear power stations that produce carbon-free electricity at a cost competitive with natural gas turbine power plants. That’s the hope of Kurt Terrani, director of the Transformational Challenge Reactor Demonstration Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. At a recent Zoom meeting of Friends of ORNL, he described the progress the program has made so far toward building a possible 14th reactor at ORNL by 2023. Unlike other industries, Terrani argued, “The nuclear industry is a dinosaur industry that has failed to adopt any new technologies partly because the United States hasn’t built any advanced reactors for 40 years.” These new technologies include additive manufacturing (3D printing of parts by building them layer by layer in shapes directed by a computer program) and artificial intelligence (providing a computer with data and training it to identify trends and make predictions based on the data). “Advances made in nuclear fuels, materials, manufacturing and computational sciences in the past 40 years could be applied to the design and construction of an advanced nuclear reactor,” Terrani said. The TCR program’s researchers, he noted, are refining their design of a 3D-printed nuclear reactor core, scaling up the additive manufacturing process necessary to build it and developing methods using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to confirm the consistency and reliability of its printed components. As part of the program’s research, three facilities at ORNL — the Spallation Neutron Source, High Flux Isotope Reactor (ORNL’s only operating research reactor) and Summit supercomputer — are being used. The work is being funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy. “With AM (additive manufacturing) we have the freedom to make metallic and ceramic components that have complex geometries and use new materials. We can embed sensors—thermocouples and optical fibers—into the structures to monitor the health of the reactor system and enable autonomous operation. “We want autonomous operation to reduce the staff needed to operate a nuclear power plant because it is competing with a gas turbine power plant, which has seven staff members versus 400 for the nuclear plant,” Terrani said. “We are trying to remove human workers from the process to make it cheaper.”

Nuclear Regulatory Commission approves Indian Point sale to New Jersey's Holtec - Holtec International’s purchase of the Indian Point nuclear power plant was approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Monday over the objections of state and federal officials. The five-member commission signed off on an NRC staff recommendation from last week, which gave Indian Point’s owner, Entergy, permission to transfer its license to Holtec when the plant shuts down next year.The commission did, however, agree to “rescind, modify, or condition the transfer” after it decides whether to grant the state of New York and the Hudson River environmental group Riverkeeper a hearing to air their concerns with the sale.The state and Riverkeeper, along with federal lawmakers, requested a hearing ahead of the approval. They fear the money to dismantle the plant's three reactors and clean up the 240-acre site along the Hudson River could dry up before the job is done. Holtec has promised to complete the dismantling in 12 to 15 years at a cost of $2.3 billion, the amount that currently sits in trust for the plant’s three reactors, according to Entergy. But it wants to divert some $632 million in trust fund money toward management of dozens of cement-and-steel spent fuel canisters that will remain at the Buchanan site until the federal government approves an underground repository for the nation’s nuclear waste. The NRC approved Holtec’s request for an exemption, allowing it to use trust fund money for spent fuel management – a move opposed by Riverkeeper and the state Attorney General’s office.  “The sale of Indian Point following its permanent shutdown will benefit the community by enabling the facility to be removed and the site remediated sooner than otherwise thought possible.”The plant’s Unit 2 reactor shut down in April after generating energy for New York City and Westchester County for more than four decades.Its last working reactor – Unit 3 – is scheduled to be shut down April 30, 2021. Holtec would take over the plant the following month.

Sam Randazzo resigns as Public Utilities Commission of Ohio chair - cleveland.com —Sam Randazzo has resigned as chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, just days after the FBI searched his Columbus home as part of an investigation into the House Bill 6 bribery scandal, according to Gov. Mike DeWine’s office.Randazzo’s resignation comes a day after FirstEnergy Corp. revealed that it fired CEO Chuck Jones and two other senior executives last month over a questionable $4 million payment the company made in early 2019 to an entity associated with an unnamed person who subsequently was hired by the state to regulate utilities.In a resignation letter, Randazzo said the impression left by the FBI raid and FirstEnergy’s filing, along with the accompanying publicity, “will, right or wrong, fuel suspicions about and controversy over decisions I may render in my current capacity.“In present times, when you, good sir, are valiantly battling to save Ohioans from the surging attack of COVID-19, there is no room or time for me to be a distraction,” Randazzo wrote to DeWine.‘I regret that I must step away but it is the right and necessary thing to do,” he concluded.

Hilcorp Awarded 11 New Well Permits in Columbiana County --– Hilcorp Energy Co., the Houston-based oil and gas exploration-company that was an early producer in the Utica-Point Pleasant shale formation in Ohio, has its eyes on what could be a “sweet spot” in Columbiana County.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has approved permits for the company to drill 11 new horizontal wells at its Baker pad in Elk Run Township, according to records.These wells would accompany two producing wells at the location, records show.  According to ODNR’s latest production data, those two wells – the Baker 6H and 14H – produced a total of 839 million cubic feet of natural gas during the second quarter of 2020. The 6H well logged 408 million cubic feet of natural gas while the 14H produced 431 million cubic feet, well above the average output for non-conventional wells across the state of about 270 million cubic feet, records show.The wells produced zero barrels of oil during the quarter, according to data.While these production numbers pale in comparison to big wells drilled in southeastern Ohio – a single well drilled in Belmont County by Ascent Resources, for example, yielded more than 3.1 billion cubic feet of gas during the second quarter – they are currently among the most productive found in the northern tier of the Utica-Point Pleasant formation, data show.  Elk Run Township appears to have emerged as a hot spot for strong wells in this part of the formation, according to ODNR records. Of the 10 wells drilled by Hilcorp in Elk Run, for example, two produced results that were just below average.    Also, EAP Ohio LLC, an affiliate of Encino Energy Partners, boasted two strong wells in Columbiana County during the quarter at its Sevak pad in Washington Township. The Sevak 210H well yielded the most natural gas of all the county’s wells with 655.8 million cubic feet during the second quarter, while its Sevak 10H produced the second-highest volume with 516.3 million cubic feet.  In 2018, EAP acquired all of bankrupt Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s Utica assets. And just last week, Gulfport Energy Corp., another prominent exploration and production company in the Utica, filed for protection under Chapter 11, citing that its “large legacy debt burden” and transportation commitments “created a balance sheet and cost structure that was unsustainable in the current market environment.” Natural gas output in the Appalachia region – which includes the Utica shale formation in Ohio and Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania – is projected to decline by 133 million cubic feet per day, according to the EIA’s monthly drilling productivity report. Appalachian wells are on target to produce 33.637 million cubic feet of gas in December compared to 33.770 million in November.

 Permanent Closure of Frack Waste Well A Win For Ohio Activists -  Environmental activists are celebrating a small victory in their fight to protect Ohio communities from the dangers of toxic and radioactive waste stored in open-pit, fracking waste injection wells.In May 2019, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources ordered Carper Well Services to clean up the waste in the Hazel-Ginsburg well, located on Ladd Ridge Road in Alexander Township in Athens County. The order enforced a law already in place to regulate open pit wells that had long been ignored. The company was given the choice to dismantle the well and plug it, or make it operational again. The company chose to dismantle it.Open-pit wells use cement-lined pits to store toxic and radioactive waste fluids. Over time, sludge from the waste accumulates in the bottom of the pits. Open-pit wells were banned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1984.The Ginsburg well looked much like an outdoor swimming pool and sat on a well-traveled road flanked by farms and residences, with nothing but a three-sided chain link fence around it and a chain strung between two free standing posts between the toxic waste and the general public and wildlife. It had been idle since 2015.Activists had reported seeing the pit full of waste to within an inch of the top and its cement liner deteriorating with cracks visible.Carper Well Services began cleanup in July 2020, and an October report released by ODNR confirms the well has been permanently closed.“The Ginsburg Injection Well is closed,” says Roxanne Groff, a member of Athens County’s Future Action Network (formerly Athens County Fracking Action Network) steering committee. Groff is one of two women who spearheaded the organization’s more than decade-long effort to close the well. Noting that there is still work to be done, she adds, “[The Ginsburg well is] not plugged as yet and the company did not test the radium in the sludge as required by the state and ODNR claims they do not know where the radioactive material is sent.” The Ginsburg well, as it is more commonly known, is a Class IV injection well. Class IV injection wells consist of an open, cement-lined pit adjacent to a well head that stores and pumps hazardous and radioactive waste fluids at high pressure into or above underground sources of drinking water. The Ginsburg well injected millions of barrels of waste over more than 30 years.

 In Pennsylvania, gas drilling is down, but production higher than it has ever been - More natural gas was fracked from Pennsylvania wells in 2019 than in any previous year, although the number of new wells drilled declined, according to the state Department of Environmental Protection.The DEP’s 2019 Oil and Gas Annual Report, released Monday, shows 6.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was produced last year from the state’s Marcellus and Utica shale gas formations, topping the 2018 production total of 6.2 trillion cubic feet and continuing an upward trend that has gone on for more than a decade.Pennsylvania is the second-largest producer of natural gas in the U.S., behind only Texas.The department issued 1,705 drilling permits, 1,475 of those for “unconventional” or horizontal shale gas wells, and 230 for “conventional,” or shallower, vertical wells. In 2018, the state issued 2,149 drilling permits, 1,868 for unconventional wells and 281 for conventional wells.There were a total of 787 wells drilled in 2019, 615 unconventional and 172 conventional. Approximately 11,500 shale gas wells are operating in the state.The report, which also touts departmental permitting efficiencies, states that the DEP conducted 35,324 field inspections in 2019, identified 5,496 violations and collected $4.1 million in fines and penalties. Over the past decade, the DEP has collected about $43.7 million for violations at Pennsylvania oil and gas sites.In 2019, violations were found on approximately 14 percent of the field inspections. Half of the violations occurred at pipeline sites, where violation totals have risen steadily for the past three years, a trend the DEP noted in its report. “DEP will continue to improve environmental protections for oil and gas development while providing certainty for operators and the people that live, work, and play near Pennsylvania’s oil and gas communities,” DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell said in a news release. “We are remaining vigilant in our oversight of the industry and bringing enforcement actions against companies that violate the laws and regulations of Pennsylvania.”

Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production in 3Q Grew at Lowest Rate on Record -Pennsylvania’s unconventional natural gas production in the third quarter hit 1.751 Tcf, an increase of only 2% from the same period last year and the lowest annual growth rate on record as operators continued to pare activity throughout a tumultuous year. Production increased slightly from 2Q2020 volumes of 1.717 Tcf, according to the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Sequential production declined in the first half of the year as gas prices fell. Production has been so robust in Pennsylvania in recent years, driven by the Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian shales, that the IFO noted a 1.3% decline in production between September 2019 and September 2020. The office said it was the first year/year decline in monthly production since February 2017.There were 111 horizontal wells spud in 3Q2020, down 17.8% from the year-ago period and the sixth consecutive quarter in which there was a year/year decline in new wells spud. The IFO tracks results from vertical wells drilled to unconventional formations, but they account for a marginal share of quarterly volumes.After peaking at the highest level on record in 3Q2018, horizontal well production growth rates have declined in each of the last eight quarters. This year has been particularly difficult for Lower 48 producers given the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on energy consumption and the economy. Producers have made price-related curtailments since the beginning of the year as they’ve grappled with low demand in the United States and across the world. In the Northeast, some producers have kept volumes shut-in, while others have turned production on and off throughout the year. Appalachian pure-play EQT Corp., the nation’s largest gas producer, curtailed more than 1 Bcfe/d from May to July and shut-in another 400 MMcf/d from September to October.  Across the country, gas production from seven key onshore regions is set to drop from November to December, extending a trend of falling output that has held for most of 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report.

The GOP warned Susquehanna County voters that Biden would ban fracking. Few believe it will happen.— In the doomsday scenario pushed by Republicans during the presidential campaign, a Democratic victory would spell the end of Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale industry. Communities enriched by the vast natural-gas reserves beneath them would wither and die if Joe Biden won.Here in Susquehanna County, more than 1,000 active wells have been drilled over the last decade to extract gas from beneath the rolling farmland — the contentious process known as fracking. The GOP’s scare tactics were meant to drive registered voters of both stripes and no stripes, a total of 27,228, into the protective embrace of Donald Trump. But most of the residents interviewed by The Inquirer postelection, people familiar with fracking and the royalty checks it brings in, said they knew it wouldn’t be going away anytime soon, even under a Biden administration. It’s “impossible for Joe Biden to stop fracking,” said. “Now, he might make it tougher and have more laws on it. But that’s a good thing.”

Dimock residents worry about planned fracking waste well - A fracking wastewater treatment company is exploring the possibility of constructing an underground deep injection well in Dimock, Susquehanna County. If approved, it would be the first deep injection well built to handle fracking wastewater in eastern Pennsylvania.  The Environmental Protection Agency has permitted at least 36 new underground wells to dispose of fracking waste since 2013, but all are in the western part of the state.  A spokesman for EPA said representatives of the company Kendra II have met with agency officials to discuss plans for the well, but have not submitted an application. The state Department of Environmental Protection said it has had no contact with the company about its plans. Calls to an attorney for the company were not returned, but a man who answered the phone at Kendra II said they were “exploring the possibilities.”  Deep injection wells can stretch more than a mile below the surface and are used by the oil and gas industry to dispose of the most hazardous waste material, including salty brine, chemicals, radioactive waste and heavy metals. The wells are typically permitted to take between 1,300 to 3,200 pounds per square inch of pressure, which sends the fluid into a sandstone or limestone formation. The U.S. Geological Survey has linked an uptick in earthquakes in Oklahoma to oil and gas wastewater injection wells in that state, at distances up to 10 miles from the site of the disposal well. Earthquakes in Ohio have been linked to deep well injection, and one in New Castle, Pennsylvania was linked to fracking. In Pennsylvania, Class 2 wells are regulated by the EPA through the underground injection control program, via the Safe Drinking Water Act. The DEP also has to sign off on the wells.  In early November, people living within 1,000 feet of the planned well began receiving letters from the Springville, Pa.-based company informing them of the project and the state law that requires well water testing. Paul Karpich, who received one of the letters, said he’s worried about ground water contamination. “I moved here in 1982 and it was pristine but no longer,” Karpich said. Gas drilling by Cabot Oil and Gas has damaged some drinking water wells in the area, and the company is still barred from drilling in a 9-square-mile area. The DEP determined that faulty well construction led to methane leaking into the aquifer. Further tests of residential drinking water have also revealed chemicals and heavy metals.

Williams, Chesapeake Clinch Natural Gas Gathering Pact for Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus and Midcontinent - Tulsa-based Williams has reached a global resolution with one of its biggest customers, bankrupt Chesapeake Energy Corp., to continue to treat and move its natural gas in the Lower 48. Chesapeake filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in June to wipe out $7 billion of debt. As part of the auction process, Chesapeake last week sold its Oklahoma assets to Tapstone Energy LLC for $130.5 million. Reaching a gas gathering agreement with Williams would allow Chesapeake to continue to have a reliable outlet for its natural gas production from the Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus shales, as well as the Midcontinent. “Our gathering systems are necessary to realize the full potential of these high value reserves, and we are pleased to have been able to work with Chesapeake toward a mutually beneficial outcome,” said Williams CEO Alan Armstrong. Per the existing contracts, the Oklahoma City independent agreed to pay all pre-petition and past due receivables related to midstream expenses. Chesapeake also agreed to not attempt to reject gathering agreements in the Eagle Ford, Marcellus or Midcontinent. For the Haynesville, Williams plans to reduce its gathering fees in exchange for gaining ownership of a portion of Chesapeake’s South Mansfield producing assets. The assets include 50,000 net mineral acres. In the Haynesville agreement, Chesapeake plans to enter into a long-term gas supply commitment on Williams’ Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line, aka Transco. The agreement would require Chesapeake to provide a minimum 100,000 Dth/d and up to 150,000 Dth/d on the Transco Regional Energy Access (REA) pipeline currently under development. The reduced gathering fees on REA are consistent with incentive rates that Williams has offered previously to attract drilling capital and “are therefore expected to promote additional drilling across Chesapeake’s prolific Haynesville footprint,” Williams management said.

NETL Positions America as World Leader to Convert Natural Gas into Valuable Products - NETL talent and expertise can strengthen U.S. capabilities to serve as a world leader in the conversion of natural gas and its liquid components into the chemical feedstocks to manufacture an extensive list of commodities and consumer products used daily.To maximize growing investment in research and development (R&D), NETL is prioritizing the Lab’s efforts to support projects focused on converting natural gas into the chemical building blocks needed to manufacture higher value products and positioning its multidisciplinary teams to support innovative technologies to transform the petrochemical sector.U.S. energy security is predicated on increasing natural gas usage. The chemicals marketplace also relies predominantly on natural gas, and the petrochemical industry is actively seeking to identify more uses for natural gas as a product feedstock and exploring ways to deliver those products to market faster, at lower cost and with less environmental impact.As home to the massive Marcellus and Utica shale gas formations, Appalachia is positioned to serve as the epicenter for this petrochemical resurgence, which could generate a significant number of good-paying jobs in advanced manufacturing while enhancing the U.S. economy.The region’s abundant levels of shale gas have already spurred construction of the Shell Chemicals petrochemical plant in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, a $6 billion project expected to open in 2021 about 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, as well as plans by PTT Global Chemical America to build a petrochemical plant in eastern Ohio.Additional major investments may follow. In its June 2020 report, “The Appalachian Energy and Petrochemical Renaissance: An Examination of Economic Progress and Opportunities,” the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) stated that “the shale gas revolution has the potential to last for more than a century.”Eliminating roadblocks to maximize the production of higher value products and chemicals using shale gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane and propane, are too complex for any one company to address. That’s where NETL can provide invaluable support and technical expertise.The Lab has decades of experience converting hydrocarbons to various products and the established infrastructure needed for expanded R&D. Also, advancements by NETL’s world-renowned engineers and scientists, coupled with a proven track record of working closely with industry and top research universities to move innovations forward, place NETL in a prime position to help drive and lead this generational opportunity.

December Natural Gas Futures Advance Amid Steady LNG Demand, Strength in Spot Prices — Natural gas futures climbed higher Monday as export levels held strong, prospects for weather-driven demand improved slightly and continued positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front bolstered confidence across markets. The December Nymex contract gained 6.1 cents day/day to start the abbreviated trading week and settled at $2.711/MMBtu. January rose 5.3 cents to $2.823. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., meanwhile, advanced 24.0 cents to $2.430 as a blast of cold hit parts of the northern United States and fueled demand. Lower 48 production over the weekend and into Monday hovered around 90 Bcf/day, near six-month highs. On the demand side, liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas levels continued near 10 Bcf/d, close to record levels as demand from Europe and Asia for U.S. exports held steady as it has all month. Meanwhile, forecasters said the European model added a few heating-degree days for the coming two weeks, providing a small dose of demand optimism as a bout of cooling moved across the northern United States early this week. Above-normal temperatures are expected throughout the northern part of the country later this week and into next, however, while comfortable conditions are projected across the southern half of the Lower 48 through the first week of December.

US natgas futures rose to one-week high on cooler forecasts - US natural gas futures climbed to a one-week high on Tuesday on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand during the first week of December than previously expected. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery rose 6.4 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.775 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 13. The January contract, which will soon be the front-month, gained 6 cents to $2.89 per mmBtu. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October. Traders said some of that output increase was due to higher oil prices. Oil futures were up about 21% so far this month on expectations of a rebound in global energy demand and economic activity as promising coronavirus vaccines are being developed. Rising oil prices over the last few months have encouraged energy firms to drill for more crude. Those oil wells also produce a lot of associated gas. With the weather expected to cool, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 100.3 bcfd this week to 114.4 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has averaged 9.9 bcfd so far in November, up from a five-month high of 7.7 bcfd in October, as rising prices in Europe and Asia in recent months have prompted global buyers to purchase more US gas. That tops the 9.8-bcfd US LNG export capacity and compares with an all-time monthly high for feedgas of 8.7 bcfd in February. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can export since they use some of the fuel to run the facility.

US working gas in underground storage down 18 Bcf on week: EIA | S&P Global Platts — The US natural gas storage withdrawal season started one week later than normal with a below-average draw of 18 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 20 as the Henry Hub winter strip shows slight declines with demand somewhat muted for the week in progress. US natural gas storage inventories decreased to 3.940 Tcf for the week ended Nov. 20, the US Energy Information Administration said Nov. 25. The report was issued one day earlier than normal this week to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. The withdrawal was less than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 25 Bcf pull. Responses to the survey ranged from a 4 Bcf injection to a 39 Bcf withdrawal. The build was also less than the 47 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 37 Bcf, according to EIA data. It was a reversal from the 31 Bcf injection announced for the week prior. US supply-and-demand balances were considerably tighter during the week ended Nov. 29, with cooler weather inflating residential-commercial consumption by 9.8 Bcf/d week on week, according to Platts Analytics. Such growth was partially offset by weaker power burns due primarily higher wind generation. Higher demand also led to stronger output, with total US supply up 3.7 Bcf/d as Northeast production and net Canadian imports expanded to meet higher demand. Storage volumes now stand 322 Bcf, or 9%, above the year-ago level of 3.618 Tcf, and 250 Bcf, or 6.8%, above the five-year average of 3.690 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract shed 3.5 cents to $2.74/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report at midday ET. The remaining winter strip — January through March — dipped 2 cents to average $2.84/MMBtu, up 17 cents from the week prior. Natural gas prices staged a rebound this week, as cooler weather trends into early December created a bullish backdrop. Notably, the soon to be prompt January NYMEX contract reclaimed the $2.90/MMBtu level after falling to an intraday low near $2.65/MMBtu last week. Higher gas prices are in line with the Platts Analytics forecast, which calls for winter 2020-21 Henry Hub prices to average near $3.20/MMBtu should weather normalize. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply-and-demand model currently forecasts a 17 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 27, which would grow the surplus versus the five-year average by 24 Bcf as demand remains below normal because of mild weather this November. US-level rescomm estimates fell for the week in progress, largely from temperatures in the East storage region climbing from to 54 degrees from an average of 49 degrees.

US natgas: U.S. natgas futures rise over 4% to one-week high on record LNG exports, Auto News -- U.S. natural gas futures jumped 4% to a one-week high on Wednesday as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports hit fresh records. The price increase came despite a continued rise in output, forecasts for milder weather next week and an expected smaller-than-usual weekly decline in stockpiles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the warmer-than-normal week ended Nov. 20. That was in line with the 18-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with a decrease of 47 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average withdrawal of 37 bcf. On its last day as the front month, gas futures for December delivery rose 12.1 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $2.896 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 13 for a second day in a row. "This market was able to post one-week highs on what appeared to be pre-holiday short covering," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is Thursday. The January contract, which will soon be the front month, gained 6 cents to $2.96 per mmBtu. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October. With the weather expected to cool, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 100.8 bcfd this week to 112.9 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to hit a record high as Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi plant in Texas pulled in enough fuel to supply all three of its liquefaction trains.

Hedge fund Citadel doubles down, and more, on shale gas in Q3 -- Legendary hedge fund CEO and investment manager Kenneth Griffin doubled down on shale gas stocks in the third quarter, banking on higher share prices across the sector as investors anticipate a sharp increase in winter commodity gas prices.  Griffin's Citadel Advisors LLC more than doubled its stakes in pure-play shale gas exploration and production companies CNX Resources Corp., Antero Resources Corp., Comstock Resources Inc., and National Fuel Gas Co. in the third quarter, according to institutional investor filings with the SEC. All four saw their share prices rise since the third quarter began, led by Antero, which was up 66% through Nov. 23.Griffin's touch was not universally aligned with the sector's improved performers. Citadel trimmed its stake in the largest U.S. gas producer, Appalachian driller EQT Corp., by 68% in the quarter while EQT shares have gained 30% in the second half of the year.Other institutions shared Griffin's confidence in the sector, buying more shares in six companies than they sold in four others.One standout stock buy was hedge fund Zimmer Partners LP's $60 million purchase of 4% of southwest Pennsylvania natural gas and NGL driller Southwestern Energy Co. While the new stake was just beneath the 5% threshold requiring a fund to declare its intentions, Zimmer has no history of activism, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Southwestern's shares have climbed 22% since the third quarter began. Big index funds such as Vanguard Group and Dimensional Fund Advisors LP cut their holdings sharply in Utica Shale driller Gulfport Energy Corp. before Gulfport's Nov. 13 filing for bankruptcy protection, but Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. and tiny investment adviser Shah Capital Management Inc. were not so quick. Both funds added to their position in the quarter before Gulfport filed.

Gulfport Accuses Midship Pipeline of Illegally Seizing $75.6M - Bankrupt Gulfport Energy Corp. has accused Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Midship Pipeline subsidiary of illegally seizing $75.6 million to hold it “hostage” during contract renegotiations in anticipation of the Chapter 11 filing, according to court filings. “To obtain leverage in ongoing contract negotiations and secure an advantageous cash position prior to Gulfport’s bankruptcy, Midship made false statements to Scotia Bank and wrongfully drew $75.6 million” from the letter of credit, Gulfport said in a complaint earlier this month to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas in Houston.Gulfport asked the court to order Midship to pay $75.6 million plus exemplary damages for its “egregious and commercially unreasonable” conduct.Oklahoma City-based Gulfport in mid-November filed for bankruptcy protection, joining many other Lower 48 exploration and production companies that have succumbed this year to low commodity prices exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.Gulfport is a major player in Ohio’s Utica Shale, where it holds more than 200,000 net acres and produces about 1 Bcfe/d of oil and gas. The company in 2017 spent $1.85 billion on a deal that closed in 2017 to enter the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, aka the SCOOP.  Gulfport in March 2017 signed a 10-year deal for at least 175,000 Dth/d of firm transportation service on Midship, the first pipeline that Cheniere developed not directly linked to its liquefied natural gas export terminals.The 200-mile Midship system in Oklahoma was placed in service in April, about a year after it was originally scheduled. The 1.44 Bcf/d line moves gas from the SCOOP and the Sooner Trend of the Anadarko Basin, mostly in Canadian and Kingfisher counties (STACK). Gulfport and Midship amended their agreement four times to alter minimum volumes and address construction delays, according to the court filing.

  US- Enbridge sues Michigan over oil pipeline shutdown order - Enbridge filed a legal challenge Tuesday to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's recent demand that the company shut down its oil pipeline that crosses the waterway connecting Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. The Canadian company accused the state of overstepping its bounds, arguing that Enbridge's Line 5 was under the sole regulatory jurisdiction of the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. “This is the latest attempt by the state of Michigan to interfere with the operation of this critical infrastructure by assuming authority it does not possess,” the company said in a statement. In her Nov. 13 order to halt the flow of oil within 180 days, Whitmer said Enbridge had violated an easement granted 67 years ago to run a section of the pipeline along state-owned land below the Straits of Mackinac. Attorney General Dana Nessel sued in state court to enforce the Democratic governor's requirement. Enbridge filed its case in U.S. District Court in Grand Rapids, Michigan, underscoring its contention that the pipeline is a federal matter. It also submitted a notice seeking to transfer the state's suit to the federal court. Vern Yu, the company's president for liquids pipelines, said the state should “stop playing politics with the energy needs and anxieties of U.S. and Canadian consumers and businesses that depend on Line 5." Whitmer spokeswoman Tiffany Brown said Enbridge's suit “brazenly defies the people of Michigan and their right to protect the Great Lakes from a catastrophic oil spill." “In short, Enbridge claims it can continue to pump oil through the Straits of Mackinac indefinitely, posing enormous risk to our economy and way of life — and that the people of Michigan have no say in the matter," Brown said.

Consumers Energy completes $610M, 90-mile Saginaw Trail Pipeline - - Consumers Energy recently finished four years of work replacing a 1940s vintage natural gas pipeline with around 90 miles of new, larger lines collectively dubbed the Saginaw Trail Pipeline. The $610 million project stretches through Michigan’s Saginaw, Genesee, and Oakland counties, providing a safer, more reliable expanse of infrastructure through mostly rural agricultural areas. To accompany the new line, rebuilds were also undertaken on the city gate facilities where gas pressure is regulated. Consumers reported that no service interruptions were needed during construction. “We are pleased to share that the Saginaw Trail Pipeline has been successfully completed,” Dennis Dobbs, vice president of enterprise project management for Consumers Energy, said. “The project was a huge undertaking, and we are grateful for the cooperation and patience shown by affected landowners, community leaders, residents, and other entities throughout construction. We also recognize the outstanding efforts of the hundreds of company and contractor skilled trades employees who worked through the challenge of COVID-19 to bring this project to successful fruition.” While modernizing Consumers’ natural gas infrastructure, the line also took great care on the environmental side of development. Consumers Energy worked with officials from the Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge and the Kensington Metropark to determine environmentally sensitive construction approaches. Such approaches included non-plastic erosion control blankets; the relocation of more than 100,000 turtles, frogs, snakes; wetland restoration efforts; and wood waste recycling. “The Saginaw Trail Pipeline helped model the way for environmental sustainability efforts for these types of large pipeline projects,” Dobbs said. The pipeline is now running as normal, but some additional restoration work will be undertaken in 2021.

  American R&D program seeks to advance offshore energy – The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) have announced a funding opportunity for up to $40 million, over a five-year period, for the operation and maintenance of the Ocean Energy Safety Institute (OESI 2.0) to support improvements in safety and environmental sustainability in offshore energy E&P. OESI was originally envisioned as an entity that would facilitate research and development on, and implementation of, operational improvements in offshore drilling safety and environmental protection, blowout containment, and oil spill prevention and response. Through a five-year project agreement, the agencies will jointly support an R&D program related to offshore oil, natural gas, wind, and marine hydrokinetic energy production, with a focus on safety, environmental monitoring, and operational improvements. OESI 2.0 will expand the scope of OESI to include offshore renewable energy development considerations, as well as oil and gas production and development considerations, through a collaborative initiative involving government, academia, and scientific experts. The recipient institution receiving the award will be responsible for managing the OESI, providing input on yearly objectives, and conducting certain work to further the attainment of those objectives. While the OESI will operate independently of BSEE and DOE, both agencies will be substantially involved in the institute through a joint steering committee (JSC), which will include representatives from each agency with expertise related to oil and gas, offshore wind, and marine and hydrokinetic energy technologies. The JSC will provide input to OESI on its technology roadmaps and annual plans, as well as review and approve its major deliverables. “Our nation’s energy, economic, and national security rely on our all-of-the-above approach to producing safe, reliable, and resilient energy,” said Deputy Secretary of Energy Mark W. Menezes. “Through federal collaboration and a cross-sector approach, we can increase support for offshore energy production while protecting our workers and the marine environment.”

Why The Oil Industry Doesn't Fear Biden : NPR -U.S. oil and gas companies will soon be facing a climate-conscious president who has vowed to transition away from the oil industry. So you might expect a sense of existential dread in the oil world about President-elect Joe Biden. Instead, there's a surprising amount of optimism. The U.S. oil and gas industry has transformed over the last decade or so, as a remarkable shale revolution turned the country into the world's top petroleum producer. Unlike President Trump, who is an ally of the industry, Biden has emphasized the devastating cost of carbon emissions for the climate. Nonetheless, the oil industry sees the president-elect as open to compromise — and likely constrained by a Republican Senate. "The gut reaction [to Biden's win] is that this isn't good news for the industry, but we're actually cautiously positive," says Jen Snyder, a director at Enverus, a company providing data and analytics to oil and gas companies. There are bound to be plenty of disagreements with Biden. He has made tackling climate change a key platform of his agenda, and even without Senate control, he's expected to take actions that would put a damper on oil profits. Environmental regulations rolled back under Trump are likely to return. And the incoming president is also expected to ban or restrict new drilling on federal lands, a change he could institute through an executive order. But none of those changes would spell the end for the industry. Limiting drilling on federal lands seems likely to be the biggest blow for some companies — particularly in New Mexico, a region where federal leases have been particularly lucrative for producers. But a majority of U.S. oil and gas production won't be affected by that change. "On private lands, it's a different story," says Rene Santos of S&P Global Platts. "[The White House does] not have the power to just say to somebody in south Texas, 'You cannot drill anymore.' "

 Biden's trans-Atlantic truce? -   As pressure grows on European countries to reduce their greenhouse gas pollution, U.S. LNG opportunities are being threatened due to poor emissions controls used to produce the gas in the first place. But it may be President-elect Joe Biden's promise to take quick action to reduce emissions of methane, the main component of natural gas, that could ultimately help rescue U.S. fossil fuel producers, Pro's Ben Lefebvre reports this morning.  "If we continue to have high levels of venting and flaring in the Permian, we're going to see more and more scrutiny from Europe," said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and former Obama administration official. "There's growing pressure in the European Union that if they're going to go with gas, they have to hold it to a higher standard and not go with the lowest common denominator" in production standards.A wider European pushback against U.S. gas is real, multiple people at U.S. LNG companies told Ben. The best way to tackle the problem is for a Biden administration to negotiate a shared standard for countries to measure the carbon content of natural gas and, at home, making methane emissions regulations a top policy priority, they said. "There's a real sensitivity in the EU about fracked gas," said one industry executive who asked for anonymity to discuss business discussions. The incoming administration "would be well advised to prioritize that. If [customers] can't use U.S. gas, then they're using Russian gas and Mideast gas."

American oil and gas companies are asleep at the wheel on methane emissions - In the global race to eliminate the world’s greenhouse gas footprint, some sources of emissions are easier to fix than others. One of the lowest-hanging fruits should be methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, which occur at every stage of production and distribution either through leaks or intentional flaring. Yet US oil and gas companies—the world’s largest producers of both products—have demonstrated once again that they’re not interested in fixing the problem. On Monday, 62 oil and gas companies representing 30% of global oil and gas operations joined a new voluntary agreement to report and reduce methane emissions, organized by the Environmental Defense Fund, the UN Environment Programme, the European Commission, and the Climate & Clean Coalition. Not a single one was American. Globally, methane emissions from oil and gas production amounted to about 82 megatons in 2019. That’s much less, by volume, than the industry’s multi-gigaton carbon dioxide footprint (not to mention emissions from actually burning the stuff). But because methane is up to 36 times more powerful than CO2 at capturing heat, it is disproportionately potent. As a result, reducing the oil and gas methane footprint by 75% would shave nearly 10% off the planet’s total greenhouse gas footprint, according to the Environmental Defense Fund. That’s more than taking every vehicle in America off the road. The solutions are neither complicated nor expensive: Plug leaks, replace faulty old compressors and other equipment, and stop venting so much of it during drilling. Because conserving methane also means producers are capturing more gas to sell, solutions largely pay for themselves: According to the International Energy Agency, oil and gas methane emissions could be halved at zero net cost, using existing technology. “This is the most immediate and cost-effective thing anybody can do to slow the rate of warming, now,” said Mark Brownstein, EDF’s senior vice president of energy. In other words, this is a no-brainer. Yet the industry has been slow to recognize this problem or take meaningful steps to curb, or even measure, its methane. And American companies have proved to be more recalcitrant than any.

 Expect more consolidation in oil industry through mid-2021 - Mergers will continue to shrink the energy industry as the pandemic rolls into next year, giving fewer companies larger shares of U.S. oil output and threatening to further slash a workforce vital to Texas and Houston. By mid-2021, there will be at least six deals among oil and gas companies, including one or two mergers among oil majors, two to three large independents taking over smaller players, and two or three mergers of equal-size small and midsize companies, according to a forecast by Global consulting firm Accenture. Accenture predicts that half of the country's onshore oil will be in the hands of eight to 12 companies by the end of 2021, down from 16 to 17 now. “You can’t have 5,000 relevant players,” said Muqsit Ashraf, Accenture’s lead energy consultant. “There isn’t room for so many players.” Energy companies have been regularly pairing up since crude prices tumbled from more than $100 a barrel in 2014. The pace of mergers has accelerated after the pandemic strangled demand, sent crude prices to historic lows and squeezed company profits. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled Monday at $42.84. Among notable deals are Chevron’s nearly $12 billion acquisition of Houston-based Noble Energy last month and ConocoPhillips’ $9.7 billion takeover of Concho Resources. The oil industry recognizes the benefits of consolidation, Accenture analysts said. Companies need scale to produce oil profitably at low prices, and larger companies can more easily access Wall Street capital and boost their footing in top-producing oil fields to remain relevant, Ashraf said. “Consolidation fortifies these companies to withstand the onslaught of low oil prices,” Ashraf said. But the mergers, while helping to boost production, leave behind a slew of redundant positions that eventually are eliminated, said Manas Satapathy, Accenture’s managing director for energy mergers and acquisitions.

Army Corps of Engineers grants final federal Line 3 permit (AP) — The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Monday approved the final federal permit for Enbridge Energy’s planned Line 3 crude oil pipeline replacement across northern Minnesota, bringing the project a step closer to construction. In a release from its St. Paul office, the Corps said it determined the Line 3 project “is compliant with all federal laws and regulations.” Col. Karl Jansen, commander of the St. Paul District, said the decision followed “an exhaustive review” and extensive work with federal and state regulators, Native American tribes, environmental groups and Enbridge. “I believe our decision is based on sound science and strikes the balance between protecting natural resources and allowing reasonable development,” Jansen said. All that remains in the six-year-old process now is for the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency to issue a storm water construction permit to protect surface waters from runoff while it’s being built, and then for the independent Public Utilities Commission to give a final green light. The commission has already approved the project several times. Pipeline opponents, including environmental and tribal groups, are still suing and protesting to try to block the project, and an appeal by the state Commerce Department is pending. But there are no injunctions in place to prevent Enbridge, based in Calgary, Alberta, from beginning construction if it gets final approval from the PUC. Winona LaDuke, executive director of Honor the Earth, an Indigenous-based environmental group, said the opponents will keep up the fight in court. “We’re going to pursue justice. We’d like the system to work,” LaDuke said as she pulled in to view an Enbridge pipe yard in Backus. Construction preparations are well underway and workers are gathering in communities along the route, she said, raising a public health threat amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Line 3 begins in Alberta and clips a corner of North Dakota before crossing Minnesota on its way to Enbridge’s terminal in Superior, Wisconsin. Enbridge wants to replace the Minnesota section because it was built in the 1960s, and its increasing maintenance needs mean the company can run it at only half its original capacity. Replacement segments in Canada, North Dakota and Wisconsin are already complete. Opponents say the pipeline threatens spills in pristine waters where Native Americans harvest wild rice and that the Canadian tar sands oil it would carry would aggravate climate change.

 Baker Hughes Reports US Rig Rebound - The total number of rotary drilling rigs operating in the United States rebounded this past week, Baker Hughes Co. reported Wednesday. Less than a week after revealing a slight dip, the service company pointed out the overall number of U.S. drilling units has since risen by 10 to reach 320. Baker Hughes’ latest U.S. rig count reflects a 10-unit gain in oil rigs (to 241) and a one-unit increase in natural gas rigs (to 77). The number of miscellaneous rigs dropped by one to two units. Against the year-ago figure of 802, the latest total U.S. rig count is down by 482 drilling units, Baker Hughes continued. It pointed out that oil rigs are down 427, gas rigs are down 54 and miscellaneous rigs are down one. Baker Hughes added the U.S. offshore rig count remained flat at 12 this week – down 10 from this time last year. Canada netted one additional operating drilling unit this week, bringing the country’s total to 102. The most recent figures comprise 38 oil rigs (down four from last week) and 64 gas rigs (up five), Baker Hughes noted. At this time last year, 126 rigs (77 oil and 49 gas) were operating in Canada, the firm added. Baker Hughes obtains its working rig location information in part from Enervus Drillinginfo, which produces daily rig counts using GPS tracking units.

The Pandemic Has Broken Shale and Left Oil Markets in OPEC Hands OPEC’s oil ministers have a few challenges to consider at a crucial summit next week, but for the first time in years the shale boom won’t be at the top of the list. A devastating global pandemic and a reckoning with Wall Street appear to have broken the resolve of the shale wildcatters who turned the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. Years of breakneck  growth, at the expense of crude kingpins in the Middle East and Russia, have come to an end. If there was ever any doubt, it’s now abundantly clear who has the upper hand in the global oil market. “In the future, certainly we believe OPEC will be the swing producer — really, totally in control of oil prices,” Bill Thomas, chief executive officer of EOG Resources Inc., the biggest independent shale producer by market value, said earlier this month. “We don’t want to put OPEC in a situation where they feel threatened, like we’re taking market share while they’re propping up oil prices.” The shale industry’s prudence, also echoed by the CEOs of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Occidental Petroleum Corp., means that production will probably flatten after a steep plunge this year. U.S. oil output will end 2021 close to 11 million barrels a day, about the same as it is now, according to forecasters IHS Markit, Rystad Enerɒy, Enverus and the U.S. Enerɒy Information Administration. “I see no more growth until 2022, 2023, and it will be very, very light in regard to the U.S. shale industry ever growing again,” Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield, who’ll run the fourth-largest shale operation in the country after his company completes the takeover of Parsley Enerɒy Inc., said in an interview. At the start of 2020, the group’s efforts to control prices were facing increasing difficulties. The breakthroughs in horizontal drilling and fracking that ushered in the shale revolution made it look as though U.S. production growth might never end. Output surpassed 13 million barrels a day for the first time in February.  Then Covid-19 hit, people around the world stopped driving and flying, and the oil market crashed. President Donald Trump brokered a historic deal with OPEC in April to remove almost a 10th of global production from the market. He said the U.S. contribution would come in the form of market-driven cuts

Tribes have not met 'high bar' for Dakota Access Pipeline shutdown, Corps says -- Shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline would "cause economic harm and shift oil transport to more risky methods" and should not occur, a federal permitting agency argued in the latest round of legal filings in the ongoing dispute over the oil pipeline. The same judge who ordered the line to cease operations this past summer is considering another a plea from the Standing Rock Sioux and other tribes to shut the line down after a higher court overturned part of the initial ruling. An appellate court said U.S. District Judge James Boasberg "did not make the findings necessary" for a shutdown in his July order, and it kicked the matter back to him for further consideration.Recent legal filings have rehashed familiar arguments from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, pipeline developer Energy Transfer, the tribe and others with a stake in the outcome of the pipeline dispute. Standing Rock tribal members are concerned that an oil spill at the pipeline's Missouri River crossing would harm their water supply, while the Corps and Energy Transfer maintain the line is safe. The Corps in a brief submitted Friday said the tribes have not met the "high bar" required for a shutdown, in which they must show they are certain or likely to "suffer an irreparable injury that cannot be remedied and that the balance of hardships tips in their favor." "The scales are not close to evenly balanced," the Corps said. The agency argued the risk of a significant oil spill is low and called tribes' concerns "speculative and abstract." Shutting down the pipeline would prompt the oil industry to rely more on trains to transport crude, which poses risks, the Corps said. Fiery oil train derailments can be deadly, such as when a train carrying Bakken crude derailed in Quebec in 2013, killing 47 people. The North Dakota attorney general's office also filed a brief Friday outlining potential harm to the state if the pipeline were to shut down. The office argued the oil industry would lose billions of dollars and that state tax revenue would see "drastic reductions." A shutdown also would lead to job losses and would stymie the state's economic recovery, the state said.

Biden Has Promised to Kill the Keystone XL Pipeline. Activists Hope He’ll Nix Dakota Access, Too - Only a few months ago, climate activists celebrated the dawn of a "new era," with three major victories in cases involving oil and gas pipelines.  After energy companies canceled the proposed Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline in July, court rulings dealt setbacks to the contentious Dakota Access and Keystone XL Pipelines. Both have sparked protests from climate and Indigenous groups and remained sticking points in climate policy.  Climate activists hope the ascendance of President-elect Joe Biden, who has called for a transition away from the oil and gas industry, will now put an end to the Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines.  The Dakota Access Pipeline, first proposed in 2014 by a subsidiary of the Dallas, Texas-based company Energy Transfer Partners, is a 1,172-mile underground crude oil pipeline which would run from North Dakota, passing just a half mile from the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation, through South Dakota and Iowa to a terminal in Illinois.  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers halted the pipeline's construction under the Obama administration in a win for the pipeline's opponents after months of heated protests. But only days after assuming office, President Trump signed an executive memorandum, instructing the Army to expedite the environmental review and approval process. Today, the Standing Rock Sioux and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes remain in a protracted legal battle over the pipeline, with its fate still uncertainafter a hearing earlier this month in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. The subject of the hearing was whether a lower court had erroneously concluded that federal regulators' approval of the project failed to satisfy the National Environmental Policy Act. The Keystone XL project, originally proposed by the Canada-based energy company TC Energy in 2008 as an expansion of its existing pipeline system, is a 1,179-mile-long pipeline that would transport 830,000 barrels of Alberta tar sands oil per day to Gulf Coast refineries. Along with theexecutive order he signed almost immediately after taking office to clear the way for Dakota Access, Trump also reversed Obama's 2015 decision to reject the Keystone pipeline.

ConocoPhillips says it will resume drilling in December on Alaska’s North Slope - ConocoPhillips Alaska on Wednesday said it will resume Alaska drilling projects using four rigs starting in mid-December, bringing back several hundred jobs amid reductions that began as the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a drop in oil prices this spring.The company said the North Slope projects include:

• • A new extended-reach drilling rig working in the Alpine oil field. It’s nicknamed “The Beast.”
• • Two rigs working in the Kuparuk River Unit.
• • A rig working in the Greater Mooses Tooth 2 Unit.

ConocoPhillips announced in early April that it would demobilize its North Slope drilling-rig fleet to help protect workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. It temporarily cut North Slope production in June,citing low oil prices. It reported losing $1.5 billion worldwide through June this year, including $60 million in Alaska.The Alaska oil and gas industry this year has shed about 3,100 jobs, close to one-third of the workforce in January.ConocoPhillips is Alaska’s largest oil producer, with 218,000 barrels of oil produced daily in 2019. The company also has new projects planned on the North Slope’s western frontier for oil development.ConocoPhillips Alaska president Joe Marushack had previously warned that another factor, the potential for Alaska voters to approve a citizen-led oil tax increase on Nov. 3, could force the oil company to keep most of its drill rigs idle.

Biden faces uphill battle to 'permanently' protect Alaska wildlife refuge --President-elect Joe Biden faces several obstacles to fulfilling his pledge to work toward “permanently protecting” the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but he’ll also have a few executive tools at his disposal that could thwart drilling across large parts of the Alaskan wilderness. Biden’s climate plan, released during the campaign, included a promise to protect the 1.6 million acres in Alaska that were opened up to oil drilling during the Trump administration. But unlike many Trump-era policies that Biden aims to undo unilaterally through executive action, the authorization for drilling along the Alaskan refuge’s coastal plain became federal law through the GOP’s 2017 tax-cut bill, which required two oil and gas lease sales in the refuge by the end of 2024. Still, there are some avenues Biden can pursue to reduce drilling or make it more difficult for the fossil fuel industry. Some of those options will be determined by whether the Trump administration is successful in completing one of the lease sales before Biden takes office on Jan. 20. This past week, the administration published a “call for nominations” that sought input on which pieces of land should be leased for drilling, noting that a sale was “upcoming.” That came a month after it proposed allowing a company to test for oil deposits in the refuge, home to grizzly bears, polar bears, gray wolves and more than 200 species of birds. Asked if the administration planned to hold a lease sale before Inauguration Day, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) spokesperson Richard Packer said in an email that “a sale may take place after the nomination period has closed and a notice of sale [is] published in the Federal Register.” Legal experts say that if no sale takes place before Biden takes office, there are a range of actions the new administration can take to limit drilling there. The most desirable, though seemingly unlikely, is to sign legislation repealing the provision in the 2017 tax law that required the lease sales. But that would require Democrats winning both runoff elections in Georgia on Jan. 5 to gain control of the Senate. If the leases are sold after Biden is in the White House, he would have more discretion over what land is sold and could also decide the terms of the lease. “They could basically not sell any leases that they think are going to compromise in some significant way the wildlife resources on the refuge and...they can also impose stipulations on the lessee that will make development much harder and much more expensive, but will also be designed presumably to protect the wildlife resources that are on the refuge,” Environmentalists have also suggested Biden should revisit the initial environmental impacts statement behind the record of decision (ROD) that opened up the area to drilling.

Federal agency proposes rule aimed at blocking banks from not financing Arctic drilling - The federal government on Friday released a proposed rule aimed at limiting large banks from pulling their financing from Arctic oil and gas projects, after several banks announced policies that prohibit or limit their investment in such projects, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. However, some experts and activists said the rule’s impact, if it is finalized, could be muted if banks can show that opting to not finance Arctic oil projects is a financial decision, not a political one. The head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, an independent bureau under the Treasury Department, said on Friday that the banking system’s capital and services must be accessible to everyone on equal terms.Banks can decline to support individual projects or customers based on reviews of their risk, said Brian Brooks, acting comptroller of the bureau. But they cannot take sweeping policy approaches that affect only certain sectors in what is part of a “creeping politicization” of the banking industry, he said.Since late last year, five of the nation’s largest banks — Citigroup,Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo — have announced that they will pull back from supporting Arctic oil and gas projects. The policies followed pressure from conservation groups concerned about climate change. Also, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, urged companies early this year to emphasize steps they are taking to combat global warming.

Interior Department contender says Biden would target Trump Arctic drilling push on first day (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s last-minute push to allow drilling in a pristine part of Alaska’s Arctic will be an early target for the next administration, according to Senator Tom Udall, a contender to lead the Interior Department under Joe Biden. The New Mexico Democrat was speaking of the Trump administration’s plan to pull off a sale of oil drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge before Biden, who wants to ban new drilling on all federal lands and waters as part of a strategy to fight climate change, becomes president on Jan. 20. “I would expect that there would be real scrutiny and analysis of these last-minute kinds of deals that are being done,” Udall said in an interview, adding that he expects they could be overturned by the courts. “That’s an issue that needs to be looked at on Day One.” The Interior Department, which manages federal and tribal lands, last week issued a request to energy companies to identify tracts in the refuge to be offered for sale. That puts the administration on a timeline that could bring a lease auction by mid-January, only days before Biden takes office. Udall, a long-time member of Congress who is retiring from the Senate chamber early next year - and the son of former Interior chief Stewart Udall - is one of several people in the running to lead Interior under Biden, he confirmed. He said he would accept the post if offered. Udall, however, faces stiff competition from his fellow New Mexican, Representative Deb Haaland, who here would become the first Native American presidential cabinet member if tapped to lead Interior - a federal agency with huge oversight of Indian country. “All I really want to do is help this administration get it right in any capacity I can,” Udall said.

These Days, the Smart Money Is Staying Away From Arctic Drilling - The Trump administration is racing against legal deadlines and a merciless regulatory calendar in its last-ditch effort to sell drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in at noon on Jan. 20. Even if the White House succeeds in clearing those hurdles, it’ll still face the cold reality of the market: funding for Arctic drilling is becoming harder and harder to find. Both oil companies and banks have decided they can no longer tolerate the risk of drilling in one of the fastest-warming places on the globe. Ben Cushing, who leads the nonprofit Sierra Club’s financial advocacy campaign, put the problem simply: “Smart money is staying away from this kind of development in the Arctic.”  Buying the leases—which could go for as little as $5 an acre—is the cheap part of the oil exploration process. Every other step—from enlisting consultants to conduct required environmental studies to mounting industrial operations in a remote wilderness without existing infrastructure—is hugely expensive. The break-even price for the oil that companies would extract could be as high as $80 per barrel, according to Rystad Energy, a level the market hasn’t seen since October 2018. Most of today’s likely bidders would need outside financing to actually get anything out of their Arctic leases. But banks are increasingly worried about damage to their public image from backing drilling in the reserve, which 70% of American voters oppose, according to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Underscoring that perceived risk: Institutions associated with Energy Transfer LP’s controversial Dakota Access oil pipeline lost $4.4 billion in account closures and divestments in 2017, research from the University of Colorado Boulder shows. Activists, Native Alaskans, and more recently large shareholders have worked to persuade lenders they were jeopardizing the climate, their investments, and their reputation by underwriting Arctic drilling. Five major U.S. banks—Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JP Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley—have already ruled out financing oil and gas projects in the Arctic refuge, leaving Bank of America Corp. the only major holdout. Last week, many of the same activists who worked on the banks issued a similar warning to the world’s top insurers. “The options are dwindling as banks shy away from the Arctic,” said Kathy Hipple, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “Not only because of ESG reasons,” she added, referring to environmental, social, and governance standards for investing, “but because it’s a high-cost, high-risk business.” Cracks were already beginning to appear in the industry’s finances before the coronavirus-spurred plunge in fuel demand, which hastened bankruptcies across the sector. Wells Fargo reported that the oil, gas and pipeline industry was responsible for 47% of its past-due corporate loans in the second quarter, even though it made up just 3% of its commercial loan portfolio. Private equity could help fill the financing gap left by banks, but it would come at greater expense to oil producers already operating on thin margins—and those firms are also retreating from energy financing, Hipple said.

The IMO will ban heavy fuel oil use in the Arctic - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved on Friday a ban on the use of heavy fuel oil for ships in the Arctic, but environmental organizations slammed the new regulation as “riddled with loopholes” that would continue to exonerate some polluters well into the end of 2020s. The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the UN’s organization IMO moved to ban the use of heavy fuel oil (HFO) and its carriage for use by ships in Arctic waters after July 1, 2024. The controversy in the new regulation arises from several provisions. One exempts ships with oil fuel tanks inside their double hull, while another gives countries in Arctic waters the right to issue waivers from the HFO ban for vessels flying their respective flags in the Arctic until July 1, 2029.The Clean Arctic Alliance slammed on Friday the approval of “a ban ridden with loopholes on the use and carriage of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic (HFO), saying that it would leave the Arctic, its Indigenous communities and its wildlife facing the risk of a HFO spill for another decade.” “By taking the decision to storm ahead with the approval of this outrageous ban, the IMO and its member states must take collective responsibility for failing to put in place true protection of the Arctic, Indigenous communities and wildlife from the threat of heavy fuel oil”, Dr Sian Prior, Lead Advisor to the Clean Arctic Alliance, said in a statement. “It is now crucial that Arctic coastal states do not resort to issuing waivers to their flagged vessels,” Prior added. According to a 2020 white paper from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), HFO use in the Arctic jumped by 75 percent between 2015 and 2019. “As newer ships enter the Arctic fleet, especially oil tankers and bulk carriers, more ships will qualify for exemptions. Additionally, if ships reflag to Arctic states, more could qualify for waivers and the effectiveness of the ban would be further eroded,” ICCT said in its paper in September.

More Positive Covid Cases at LNG Canada Project - Northern Health Authority has confirmed additional positive Covid-19 cases at the LNG Canada project site in Kitimat, B.C, LNG Canada and JGC Fluor have revealed in a joint statement. All affected individuals have been placed in isolation and are being cared for in their homes or at the project’s on-site facilities by medical and support staff, the statement noted, adding that contact management and tracing have “gone well” and will continue. All cases were said to have occurred in the same general work location and no public exposures in Kitimat have resulted from the event, according to the statement. In order to manage the situation, the companies announced a series of new actions. As part of these, the firms said thorough disinfection and sanitization, including electro-static cleaning, of the impacted work areas has occurred, a work from home policy has been reinstated for non-essential staff and an active review of the companies’ Covid-19 safety plans is underway. “LNG Canada and JGC I Fluor JV continue to work closely with Northern Health and related health authorities,” the statement posted on LNG Canada’s website said. “As always, we will continue to monitor the situation and adjust our plans and actions as required. Take care and stay safe,” the statement added. On November 19, the companies announced that Northern Health Authority had confirmed positive Covid-19 cases at the LNG Canada Project site in Kitimat. The affected individuals were placed in isolation and were being cared for in their homes or at the project’s on-site facilities by medical and support staff. The companies said at the time that they were working closely with Northern Health to carry out the contact tracing protocols. LNG Canada is a joint venture among Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and KOGAS. The project will export Canadian natural gas to Asian markets, and in the process, put Canada on the global map of LNG exporting countries and create a world-class LNG industry in British Columbia and Canada, according to LNG Canada’s website.

Oil spill cleanup continues in Woodland - ALMOST a week since an oil spill in the Godineau River in Woodland, Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd is still cleaning it up. On Wednesday, the company sent workers to Woodland after receiving reports of a spill at New Cut Channel. In a release, it said then, “Company officials were immediately dispatched to the site and quickly determined that the spill was emanating from its 16-inch trunk pipeline. Oil absorbent booms and spill containment Boom placed in the Godineau. On 18 November, there was an oil spill along the New Cut Channel, Woodland. - Marvin Hamilton It said the pipeline was isolated and clamped and the company was "mobilising all available resources including the services of specialised oil spill response contractors to clean up the affected areas.” In addition, it said a wildlife rescue, conservation and rehabilitation team was sent out, and booms were being deployed along the Godineau River to stop the oil spreading. further spread downstream." When Newsday visited the area on Monday, there were several workers there, including senior officials from Heritage. Nearby residents said the 30 or so men began working at approximately 6 am, and when Newsday arrived at approximately 1 pm, they were being rounded up and dismissed for the day. One senior official said, "The weather is against us," while speaking to the workers. Asked for a comment, the workers said they were not allowed to speak to the media. Newsday also went out on the river by boat. Many mangroves had remnants of oil from the spill, which also coated some oysters and fiddler crabs. There were several oil booms along the river and excavators were seen tearing down parts of the riverbank.

Oil-backed trade group is lobbying the Trump administration to push plastics across Africa – A lobby group representing oil and chemical companies, including Shell, Exxon, Total, DuPont and Dow, has been pushing the Trump administration during the pandemic to use a US-Kenya trade deal to expand the plastic and chemical industry across Africa.Documents obtained by Unearthed show the same lobby group – and the US recycling industry – also lobbied against changes to an international agreement that puts new limits on plastic waste entering low- and middle-income countries.Several of the companies in the American Chemistry Council (ACC) – including Shell, Exxon and Total but not BP – were the founders of a $1bn initiative that pledges to create “a world free of plastic waste”.In public letters to top officials at the US Trade Representative and US International Trade Commission, the ACC writes: “Kenya could serve in the future as a hub for supplying U.S.-made chemicals and plastics to other markets in Africa through this trade agreement.”The letters also call for the lifting of limits on the waste trade, a move which experts say amounts to an attempt to legally circumvent the new rules on plastic waste, rules which – the documents reveal – the firms had also vigorously opposed.Kenyan environmentalists said the proposals would mean that “Kenya will become a dump site for plastic waste”.US Democratic Senator Tom Udall, who last year introduced legislation to tackle the plastic waste crisis accused the companies of “double dealing.” He told Unearthed: “It is outrageous that petrochemical and plastic industries claim the solution to our mounting plastic waste crisis is to produce more disposable plastic. These same companies and corporations then point the finger at developing nations for the plastic waste showing up in our oceans. This double-dealing makes clear what the true source of our plastic waste crisis is: companies and corporations off-shoring their responsibilities to make billions of dollars… Requiring these companies to take responsibility for their excessive waste and pollution is the only way we will tackle our colossal plastic waste problem.” The ACC is a major trade association for chemical companies, including Dow and DuPont, as well as the petrochemical arms of some of the oil majors. Although BP is a member, it does not produce any plastics and last month sold off its petrochemicals business to Ineos. A spokesperson told Unearthed that their work with the ACC focuses on Castrol lubricants, which are used in the automotive industry.

 Solomon Islands oil spill report leaked to ABC reveals economic losses of up to $50 million - Documents leaked to the ABC have estimated the economic losses caused by an oil spill near a world heritage-listed area of Solomon Islands last year could be as high as $50 million. More than 300 tonnes of heavy fuel oil leaked into the waters of Kangava Bay in February last year from the damaged hull of a bulk carrier after it ran aground on Rennell Island in rough seas. The bulk carrier MV Solomon Trader had been attempting to load bauxite from a nearby mine on the island. The report said the grounding caused the direct loss of more than 10,000 square metres of reef and more than 4,000 square metres of lagoon habitat. Almost 30,000 additional square metres of lagoon habitat was exposed to heavy fuel oil in the weeks following the spill. A team of local and international experts conducted the environmental damage assessment for the Solomon Islands Government four months after the spill. Their report was handed to the Solomon Islands Government more than a year ago, but its contents have never been made public and locals are yet to be compensated. The ABC obtained a copy of the assessment that outlines significant and long-lasting impacts to the nearby marine environment. Images in the report showed a thick black sludge extending across the bay's turquoise blue waters. Surveys of the seafloor detailed in the report found "reduced invertebrate abundance and richness, reduced fish biomass … and reduced live coral cover". "Statistical analysis suggests these impacts extend to within 1 to 3 kilometres of the grounding site," the report said. The MV Solomon Trader ran aground on a reef at Lavangu Bay in East Rennell while trying to load bauxite on the island.(ABC: The Australian High Commission)Rennell Island is recognised as a biodiversity hotspot. The eastern half of the island was designated a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1998, but due to pressures from logging, mining and invasive species, the site is listed as "in danger" by the international group. The majority of the western half of Rennell Island was leased to Asia Pacific Investment and Development Ltd (APID) for a bauxite mining operation in 2015. The report said APID subcontracted mining operations to Bintan Mining Solomon Islands who are "currently exporting approximately 300,000 tonnes per month" of bauxite ore in 34 shipments. The researchers also interviewed locals to gauge the socio-economic impacts of the disaster on the island's 2,500 inhabitants. They found it had affected their physical and mental health, and they also documented concerns about the loss of subsistence fishing, dietary changes and negative impacts on cultural practices.

US, Japan inch toward unlocking vast new source of natural gas – A large volume of untapped natural gas is stored in ice crystals known as methane hydrates, which are found under permafrost and beneath the seafloor.  Despite concerns from environmental groups, government researchers from the U.S. and Japan are moving ahead with plans to begin a long-term test of a promising methane extraction technique in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. They plan to begin drilling in 2021 at a site within a long-used oil field containing two viable hydrate reservoirs. The test will last approximately one year.  “Hydrates are the largest reservoir of natural gas that we have available to us. It’s just a question of ‘is it economical to access them?’” says Joseph Stoffa, a technology manager at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, which is collaborating with Japan’s Oil, Gas, and Metals National Corporation on the study.  But some worry that continuing to develop new sources of natural gas could prolong the world’s dependence on fossil fuels. “We need to be transitioning to renewable energy instead of just finding better ways of fracking,” says Dominique Thomas, an organizer for the environmental advocacy group 350.org.  Activists have also raised concerns that drilling into hydrate reservoirs could release methane, a greenhouse gas which is 72 times more potent than carbon dioxide for the first 20 years it spends in the atmosphere. Natural gas production has long carried the risk of methane leaks from pipes and wells, sometimes called “fugitive emissions.”   Stoffa says that any efforts to extract methane from hydrates would aim to minimize escaping methane. The technique they plan to use is standard in the natural gas industry and carries the same risks to the drill site as conventional gas drilling, according to Tim Collett, a senior scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey. Some independent experts also question the economic wisdom of developing hydrates. Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis in Ohio, is skeptical that hydrates will become viable in time to compete with fast-growing sources of renewable energy like solar and wind. Besides, he says, the natural gas industry is suffering from oversupply these days. “They have a lot of problems, but a scarcity of methane is just not one of them right now.”

China set to eclipse America as world’s biggest oil refiner - Earlier this month, Royal Dutch Shell Plc pulled the plug on its Convent refinery in Louisiana. Unlike many oil refineries shut in recent years, Convent was far from obsolete: it’s fairly big by U.S. standards and sophisticated enough to turn a wide range of crude oils into high-value fuels. Yet Shell, the world’s third-biggest oil major, wanted to radically reduce refining capacity and couldn’t find a buyer. As Convent’s 700 workers found out they were out of a job, their counterparts on the other side of Pacific were firing up a new unit at Rongsheng Petrochemical’s giant Zhejiang complex in northeast China. It’s just one of at least four projects underway in the country, totaling 1.2 million barrels a day of crude-processing capacity, equivalent to the U.K.’s entire fleet. The Covid crisis has hastened a seismic shift in the global refining industry as demand for plastics and fuels grows in China and the rest of Asia, where economies are quickly rebounding from the pandemic. In contrast, refineries in the U.S and Europe are grappling with a deeper economic crisis while the transition away from fossil fuels dims the long-term outlook for oil demand. America has been top of the refining pack since the start of the oil age in the mid-nineteenth century, but China will dethrone the U.S. as early as next year, according to the International Energy Agency. In 1967, the year Convent opened, the U.S. had 35 times the refining capacity of China. The rise of China’s refining industry, combined with several large new plants in India and the Middle East, is reverberating through the global energy system. Oil exporters are selling more crude to Asia and less to long-standing customers in North America and Europe. And as they add capacity, China’s refiners are becoming a growing force in international markets for gasoline, diesel and other fuels. That’s even putting pressure on older plants in other parts of Asia: Shell also announced this month that they will halve capacity at their Singapore refinery. There are parallels with China’s growing dominance of the global steel industry in the early part of this century, when China built a clutch of massive, modern mills. Designed to meet burgeoning domestic demand, they also made China a force in the export market, squeezing higher-cost producers in Europe, North America and other parts of Asia and forcing the closure of older, inefficient plants.

Modi says India set to double oil refining capacity in 5 years, earlier than expected - India plans to nearly double its oil refining capacity in the next five years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Saturday, offering a much more aggressive timeline than previously despite the coronavirus pandemic blighting the economy.The country's energy minister was quoted in June as saying India's oil refining capacity could jump to 450-500 million tonnes in 10 years from the current level of about 250 million tonnes. But addressing a petroleum university's convocation, Modi said "work is being done to nearly double the country's oil refining capacity in the next five years". The convocation was also addressed virtually by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, whoseReliance Industries Ltd operates the world's biggest oil refinery in Modi's home state of Gujarat. Modi said India was also aiming to raise the share of natural gas in its energy-consumption mix by up to four times. The cleaner-burning fuel currently accounts for about 6% of the energy consumed in the country. India would achieve its targets of increasing renewable energy capacity to 175 gigawatts by 2022 and 450 gigawatts by 2030 ahead of schedule, Modi added. The country had renewable energy capacity of about 75 gigawatts at the end of 2018.

 Renewed Lockdowns Threaten More Refinery Closures In Europe  More refineries in Europe are at risk of permanent closures, with fuel demand on the continent falling again as major economies re-imposed lockdowns to fight the spike in coronavirus cases.   Gasoline demand in Europe is expected to be between 15 and 20 percent lower in November and December compared to the same months of 2019, Argus reported, citing market participants.   The new lockdowns, partial lockdowns, and curfews in the biggest economies in Europe, including the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, are dragging down oil demand again while a double-dip recession in the Eurozone and wider Europe now looks almost inevitable. Refiners have struggled since the spring with the crash in fuel demand, and many of them are restructuring operations, including closing down permanently crude oil processing capacity. Petroineos, a joint venture of Ineos and PetroChina, said earlier this month it plans to permanently close some units at the 210,000-bpd Grangemouth refinery, the only refinery in Scotland, which will cut the facility’s refining capacity to 150,000 bpd.Neste of Finland said in September that it was exploring the shutdown of its refinery operations in Naantali and transforming the Porvoo refinery operations to co-processing renewable and circular raw materials. “The forthcoming operating and maintenance investments in the Naantali refinery are not viable nor sustainable in a situation where there is large over-capacity for oil refining globally,” Neste’s President and CEO Peter Vanacker said in September. Refiners in the United States are also idling refinery capacity and cutting jobs to cope with the losses from the demand crash. Refiners around the world have been announcing permanent closures of refinery capacity this year, but significant overcapacity still remains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly Oil Market Report last week. Permanent shutdowns of refinery capacity have reached 1.7 million bpd. But more than 20 million bpd crude oil distillation capacity now sits idle, the Paris-based agency said, noting that “there remains significant structural overcapacity.”   

 EU database raises more questions about Japanese Owner Of Mauritius Oil Spill Ship - The Indian Ocean island of Mauritius continues to face an unprecedented ecological, human health and economic impact from the devastating oil spill in August. At the center of the controversy lies the Wakashio bulk carrier, the cause of the disaster. Now, an important EU Ship Transparency Database, called EQUASIS (Electronic Quality Shipping Information), administered by the European Maritime Safety Authority in Lisbon, Portugal, is raising more questions about the Japanese owner of the Wakashio. With demands growing for a full international inquiry into how the bulk carrier – one of the largest ships in the ocean – came to crash into a network of internationally protected nature reserves along Mauritius’ coral reefs, questions are starting to be asked about the business operations of the vessel owner itself, Japan-based Nagashiki Shipping Co Ltd (reportedly known as Changfeng Steamship company in Japan). This is particularly relevant as Mauritius prepares its multi-billion dollar legal case for damages from the vessel’s insurers. There is a growing mismatch between statements made by the company’s representatives, what is listed on the company’s website and what international shipping databases are showing. Addressing Secretive Shell Companies and ‘Flags of Convenience’ in global shipping One of the biggest reasons for this opaqueness is the widespread use of secret offshore shell companies by the global shipping industry. 70% of global shipping are registered with the six major ‘Flags of Convenience’ countries (Panama, Liberia, Malta, Marshall Islands, Singapore, Hong Kong) whose registration system makes it easy to hide shipping assets and limit how much multi-billion dollar shipping companies have to pay out in the event of an environmental catastrophe as was seen with Mauritius. Although Nagashiki Shipping is based in Japan and presents itself as a Japanese Shipping Company with a long maritime history in Japan, not one of its vessels are registered in Japan. They are all registered in ‘Flags of Convenience’ nations, such as Panama, the Marshall Islands and Liberia. In previous meetings over the past decade, the G20 has taken on free trade, climate change and tax transparency. Global shipping lies at the nexus of all three, and has been left without sufficiently strong and independent international oversight. With 80% of world trade passing through the economies of the G20, and major changes needed to wean the industry off fossil fuels in the next decade, this may be the right window to intervene, especially with a new U.S. Presidential team coming into office. The failure of the UN Shipping Regulator, the IMO, to take action last week on shipping emissions and Arctic pollution once more reminded the world that public trust has been completely eroded with the UN-affiliated shipping institution. Rather than being multilateral institution representing safety of seafarers, coastal communities, tax authorities and the planet, the IMO is now largely regarded as a trade body primarily focused on the interests of the global shipping industry.

Watch- Viral Video Of Water On Fire Reveals A Natural Gas Leak In China - Residents in a natural gas-producing northeastern Chinese province have made a video of tap water being set on fire with a lighter - a video that went viral - prompting an investigation by local authorities and a shutdown of the water supply to part of a city because natural gas had leaked into the groundwater.   Videos of tap water in the city of Panjin, in China’s Liaoning province, surfaced on Chinese social media and became so popular that the story was picked up by the People’s Daily, a Chinese state-affiliated media outlet.   According to People’s Daily’s tweet: “The odd scene is caused by natural gas infiltration due to temporary underground water supply system error, which is now shut down. Normal supply has resumed.”   The local government has said that further investigation would be conducted into the cause of the incident, People’s Daily reported.   However, according to media reports in China, carried by Newsweek, flammable tap water is not a new phenomenon in the district of the city of Panjin where the latest video was recorded. Residents in Dawa district have said that they had seen instances of burning tap water since at least 2018. Other residents say that their tap water has always been more “oily”.   A report from the CCTV outlet said that residents had first noticed the flammable tap water “three to four years” ago.  Chinese authorities said that after a “comprehensive investigation of the tap water sources in the whole district, no such problems have been found in other areas.”   The Liaoning province has natural gas reserves, and last year in November, a unit of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)— Liaohe Oilfield—started construction of an $8.5-billion gas storage project in the city of  Panjin, which would be the biggest underground natural gas storage center in northeast China. 

Khor Fakkan Municipality contains oil spill on beach - A lightweight oil spill on Khor Fakkan’s Al Lulayyah Beach has been successfully contained and cleaned up by a team from the Khor Fakkan Municipality, in coordination with concerned environmental authorities in the emirate. The spill was noticed at the beach on Sunday evening. Upon notification from the coastal guards, the Khor Fakkan Municipality department immediately dispatched an emergency team to tackle the spill. This the third time the municipality has noticed oil slicks on the seashore. The phenomena is increasing and strict measures and tough penalties need to be taken against the violators, said an official from the Khor Fakkan Municipality department. The official cautioned residents from going near the beaches to protect themselves from any harmful effects.

Yemens Ansarullah allows UN team to inspect decaying oil tanker (Tasnim) – The Houthi Ansaruallh movement has allowed an international inspection team to board the decaying FSO Safer oil tanker moored off Yemen’s Red Sea coast, the UN said. - World news - UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the Houthis on Saturday sent an official letter to the UN confirming their approval for experts to access the stranded vessel to carry out vital maintenance checks. The 45-year-old ship has been anchored about 60 km north of Hudaydah since the start of the Saudi-led war on Yemen five years ago and is loaded with more than 1 million barrels of crude oil. Officials have warned that the rotting tanker posed “grave risks” to the environment and maritime navigation if left unattended any longer. “The objective of the UN-led expert mission is to assess the vessel and undertake initial light maintenance as well as to formulate recommendations on what further action is required to neutralize the risk of an oil spill,” Dujarric added. During a press briefing in New York, he said that the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) would handle picking members of the mission and equipment required for assessing and repairing damage to the Safer. “I think if everything comes together, we would expect the mission staff and the equipment to arrive on site by late January or early February.”

OPEC seeks $12.6tn investments to revamp global oil industry - The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has disclosed that the global oil industry will require about $12.6 trillion investments in the downstream, midstream as well as upstream to sustain its innovative and production efficiency in the next 25 years. Secretary General of the organisation, Dr Sanusi Barkindo, who spoke at the Crescent Ideas Forum on ‘‘The Outlook on Energy’’ videoconference, also predicted a rash of closure of refineries globally in the next few years as regions develop new capacities. He stated that OPEC’s World Oil Outlook showed that upstream capital expenditure could fall by more than 30 per cent in 2020 alone, but maintained that crude oil will continue to be relevant in the next two decades and a half. Barkindo argued that the oil industry cannot move forward without adequate capital to sustain its historic leadership, stating that it would need financial firepower to grow out of the coronavirus-induced crisis, to sustain technological development and human resources, and to help provide a stable, economic and secure energy supply. “For OPEC and its member countries, stable and timely investment is essential if we are to successfully achieve our cherished goals of economic diversification and development, and importantly, to help diverse our own energy mix. “In fact, OPEC’s World Oil Outlook shows that upstream capital expenditure could fall by more than 30 per cent in 2020, exceeding the annual dramatic declines seen in the industry downturn of 2015 and 2016. “Looking ahead, our projections for the oil industry show that investment of around $12.6 trillion will be needed in the upstream, midstream and downstream between now and 2045. “To get there, it is very important that the policy discussions on energy and investment remain inclusive and supportive of a diverse portfolio of energy options,” he said. According to him: “Turning to the downstream, we anticipate a wave of refinery closures as new capacity comes online in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the Asia-Pacific, with crude distillation capacity expected to increase by 15.6 million b/d until 2045”. The OPEC boss stated that despite the challenges that exist today, OPEC was committed to investments that strengthen the oil industry’s resilience and capacity to meet the world’s demand needs over the long term.

 OPEC to decide the fate of oil markets in 2021 - OPEC officials will meet this week on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to iron out details ahead of the meeting on November 30 and December 1 that will determine the fate of OPEC’s oil producers for 2021. OPEC sources told Reuters on Monday. Wednesday and Thursday will see OPEC’s economic commission board gather together, and Friday will bring together non-OPEC technical experts. The topic of discussion? In part, the level of production cuts that will be in effect come January 1, 2021. As it stands right now, the current level of production cuts are set to ease as of January 1. But most industry analysts and experts agree that oil demand—which has failed to fully recover from its pandemic levels—does not support OPEC lessening its production cut mandates in January. “The OPEC+ ministers will probably agree to extend current production for the first quarter of 2021,” one OPEC delegate told Reuters. What OPEC is hoping for is that a vaccine will boost economic activity and therefore oil demand. But precious little was said about a vaccine in their MOMR this month. OPEC is currently cutting 7.7 million barrels per day, with plans to decrease those cuts to just 5.7 million bpd in January. Even if a vaccine is approved for emergency use this month, it is unlikely to have any meaningful effect on oil demand until the second half of 2021. OPEC member Libya has stated that it does not intend to be part of the OPEC production cuts until such a time when its oil production has stabilized at 1.7 million bpd. It is currently producing about 1.25 million bpd. This could be a sticking point in the upcoming meetings, along with non-compliant Iraq.

OPEC+ leaning towards oil cut extension, despite rally (Reuters) - OPEC and allies including Russia are leaning towards delaying next year’s planned increase in oil output to support the market during the second wave of COVID-19 and rising Libyan output, despite a rise in prices, three sources close to OPEC+ said. OPEC+ was due to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January - about 2% of global consumption - as it moves to ease this year’s record supply cuts. With demand weakening, OPEC+ has been considering delaying the increase. Russia is likely to agree on a rollover of current output for the first quarter if needed, a source familiar with the issue said, and would prefer to decide later on extending for the second quarter. “It looks like the extension is needed,” the source said, citing “possible price drops and demand uncertainties” amid the second wave of the virus. Oil has rallied in the past week, rising to its highest since March near $49 a barrel on hopes that coronavirus vaccines will lead to higher demand. This hasn’t changed OPEC+ thinking around the extension, delegates said. “This increase in prices is about sentiment, but we need to extend to have solid market fundamentals to support the prices,” said one. “So far, the best choice is the three-month extension.” Still, enthusiasm for extended cuts is not universal, delegates and analysts say. A potential complication is the United Arab Emirates’ wish for a higher OPEC+ quota, Goldman Sachs said this week. Nigeria also wants a higher quota, and Iraq has talked about being exempt from 2021 reductions. But Goldman said it did not expect such a push from the UAE to derail the extension, and Iraq has said it will support any unanimous OPEC+ decision. Christyan Malek, managing director and head of oil & gas research at J.P. Morgan, said he expected OPEC+ to delay the increase by up to six months despite the price rally, with Saudi Arabia possibly offering deeper voluntary cuts until March. “Inventories are not coming down as quickly as expected. And lockdowns are moving east to west, with more lockdowns expected in the U.S.,” he said. Malek said the departure of Donald Trump as U.S. President, who was seen by some in OPEC as a friend after he helped bring Russian President Vladimir Putin into the OPEC+ output cut in April, would actually boost the producer alliance. “Without Trump, OPEC+ is getting stronger rather than weaker,” he said. “Putin is using OPEC+ to get closer to Saudi Arabia, as the departure of Trump creates a bit of a vacuum in U.S.-Saudi relations.”

Nigeria seeks better deal on OPEC quota  --THE Federal Government is seeking more crude oil production quota from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Nigeria’s huge population and physical development deficits should be considered by the oil cartel when sharing production cuts, President Muhammadu Buhari, said on Thursday.Buhari made the appeal on Thursday at the State House, Abuja, while hosting the Secretary-General of the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation (APPO), Dr. Omar Farouk.In a statement issued by his Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Mallam Garba Shehu, Buhari observed that Nigeria needs all the resources she can gather from all sources, considering the weight of the responsibility of the nation with “200 million people, with severe deficit in infrastructure.”He welcomed APPO’s to site the headquarters of the African Energy Investment Corporation in Abuja, pledging Nigeria’s full support in ensuring the successful take-off of the organisation. Buhari also assured that Nigeria will pay her share of the subscription accordingly.The President, who was hailed for the vision of setting up the APPO and the ratification of its charter by Nigeria back in 1985 as Military Head of State, said the peculiarities of the challenges facing African oil producers required them to come together under the association to share experiences and solve their problems collectively, adding that the growing clamour for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels notwithstanding, countries like Nigeria needed to produce more oil to feed the petro-chemical industry and create jobs.The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva told the President that the proposed APPO Energy Investment Corporation to be sited in Abuja will start with $1 billion from the AFRO-EXIM Bank, adding that it is expected to bring employment and other benefits to Nigeria. The APPO Secretary-General, who was accompanied by Dr. Adedapo Odulaji, the OPEC Governor in Nigeria, conveyed the appreciation of both the Congolese President and the Prime Minister for the President’s support in the relocation of the headquarters of the association to its chosen location, Brazzaville, the Congolese capital. He expressed hope that members of the 16-member organisation will surmount the challenges posed by COVID-19 and the receding fossil fuel use as a result of the climate change treaties signed by member states and other nations.

Libya Oil Comeback Has Legs -- Libya’s oil industry, trampled by civil war and chaos, is roaring back. Crude output has surged to nearly 1.25 million barrels a day from almost a dead start in September, thanks to a tentative peace between rival military forces. The OPEC member is already pumping about three-fourths as much as it did before the 2011 uprising that toppled strongman Moammar Al Qaddafi and triggered the country’s political and economic collapse. The speed of the recovery took oil markets by surprise. It’s also causing anxiety for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia as they restrict global output to prop up crude prices. Libya is exempt from the cuts and currently supplies more oil than several of its OPEC peers. The so-called OPEC+ alliance is sure to weigh the impact of Libyan oil when it meets next week to assess its strategy as the coronavirus ravages fuel demand in much of the world. The big unknown about Libya’s production -- for traders, analysts and oil minsters alike -- is whether it can be sustained or even increased to pre-conflict levels of around 1.6 million barrels a day. The boost in output over the past two months may have been the easy part. To produce still more crude, the country will need buckets of cash to fix and upgrade its energy infrastructure. That in turn will require a lasting peace and political settlement. “Libya will likely struggle to produce above 1.3 million barrels a day,” said Mohammad Darwazah, an analyst at consultant Medley Global Advisors. “There is not much upside from these levels in the absence of investment.” Libyan officials have hinted that they won’t discuss a potential OPEC quota for the country until it’s pumping at least 1.7 million barrels daily. OPEC typically gives any member suffering from conflict several years to recover before trying to cap its output. Although Libya holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, years of strife and lost production have impoverished the government and state-run National Oil Corp. The NOC must repair damage to its oil fields, pumping stations and other facilities, many of which have been idle for years. The lack of routine nuts-and-bolts servicing has left pipelines corroding and storage tanks collapsing. Remedial work at wells alone could cost more than $100 million, NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla told Bloomberg in June. Sanalla said last month that the country targets pumping 1.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2021. The company has ambitions of eventually supplying more than 2 million barrels daily, an NOC official said to Bloomberg on Thursday, asking not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. To achieve that, the NOC will need more money from oil exports as well as investment from foreign energy partners who pulled out amid the fighting.

Why Iraq Isn’t Producing 10 Million Barrels Per Day Yet - Despite its huge oil resources, Iraq’s practical readiness to hit its 7 million barrels per day (bpf) oil production target (by 2025) came into question again last week, with statements from the developers of two of its major fields – BP in Rumaila, and Japan Petroleum Exploration (Japex) in Gharraf – that achieving higher output from their respective developments is not as straightforward as it might appear. Although Iraq could be producing at least 9 million bpd with ease by now – even 12 million bpd – if it were not for the investment and corollary infrastructure constraints that have resulted from the endemic corruption across the country, its ability to attain the 7 million bpd target looks also looks far from certain in the current circumstances.  In the case of Rumaila - which lies around 30 kilometres north of Iraq’s southern border with Kuwait and which, together with Kirkuk, has produced around 80 per cent of Iraq’s cumulative oil production to date - BP is currently in talks with Iraq’s oil ministry over plans to push production up to 2.1 million bpd from the current 1.4 million bpd. With an estimated 17 billion barrels in proven reserves, the current output of 1.4 million bpd is nowhere near its optimum production level, and Rumaila is a prime example of a field for which even a relatively small investment could yield significant increases in crude oil output. However, according to a comment last week from BP’s country head, Zaid Elyaseri: “There is an ongoing discussion with the ministry of oil and the Basra Oil Co. on how to proceed [it has asked all international oil companies (IOCs) to cut their capex by 30 per cent this year], given the low oil price environment and the reduction in the activity set that the ministry has requested all IOCs to do this year as a result of low oil prices,…There is a discussion on the timing and all other details….[and] We are working to increase production gradually.” The original plan was for BP to add 100,000 bpd every year up to a total of 2.3-2.4 million bpd of production by the original target date of 2020, a figure which remains entirely achievable within a relatively short space of time in oil development terms. “The main reason that it hasn’t gone according to the original plan was that Rumaila has been one of the fields that the government has looked to when it needs to reduce overall country production,” Richard Bronze, cross-energy analyst for Energy Aspects, in London, told OilPrice.com. “This has happened with the OPEC/NOPEC deal and before that with the difficulties in paying IOCs under the technical service contract [TSC] payment structure,” he added. “As a result, BP has been unwilling to make the extra investments needed in order to meet these incremental output increases, as it did not know whether it would be allowed to pump at these levels on a sustained basis,” 

Russia and Saudi Arabia Power Risks OPEC+ Break-Up | Chatham House – The pushback from the UAE over historic supply cuts brought in to offset the fallout from the pandemic comes at a delicate moment for OPEC, threatening the brittle coalition and an already weakened oil market. The news of COVID-19 vaccines alongside the highest oil price since September has lifted sentiments to a more bullish level – and with it, a growing resentment that the OPEC+ policy is driven primarily by ‘bullying’ from Saudi Arabia and Russia, with little consideration of other producing countries. With the OPEC summit imminent, there are clear signs the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are all digging in their heels in a reluctance to rollover production cuts which have created winners and losers – with Saudi Arabia and Russia on top and the trio in the latter category. Should the UAE assert its national economic interest and breach the production limit – or more seriously, quit the producers’ alliance – it would have a major impact upon markets and quite radically affect the relationship with Saudi Arabia for some time to come.It is commonplace to put out such messages ahead of summits, but it is striking that at the ADIPEC virtual conference Saudi Arabia energy minster Abdulaziz bin Salman (AbS) chose to say that the OPEC+ group may ‘tweak’ production cuts agreed in April and extend them beyond the December deadline for at least a further three months. He then reiterated this at OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) and implied markets should not simply expect an extension of production cuts at 7.7mbd past December, but to factor in additional cuts too. Even with news of a COVID-19 vaccine giving some cause for optimism and the potential to change calculations, these are unlikely to materialize quickly so the minister’s signal does ring true. But it is not going to go down well with the neighbours. Saudi Arabia and Russia are certainly coming out on top, mostly due to baselines and quotas, and US shale producers are also benefitting from the current policy. Riyadh’s OPEC+ reference production number, which its quota is based on, is now 370kbd higher – at 11mbd – than it was in October 2018 so it can easily claim compliance and even proclaim underproduction.   Since starting the price war, Saudi Arabia has once again cemented its position as market leader and price setter, enabling it to become de-facto OPEC leader, and also make decisions on behalf of the other members which is becoming a sore point as Riyadh and Moscow, not OPEC, are setting policy and benefitting, while others carry the cost.

Oil prices rise on back of COVID vaccine news - Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, extending last week's gains as traders eyed a recovery in demand due to successful coronavirus vaccine trials. Sentiment was also bolstered by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, might extend a deal to restrain output. Brent crude rose 92 cents, or 2%, to $45.89 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 53 cents, or 1.3%, to $42.97 a barrel. Both benchmarks jumped 5% last week. The contango structure in the market, where the prices of front-month delivery contracts are lower than those for delivery six months later, narrowed to 32 U.S. cents, its smallest since mid June, indicating that concerns about a glut were receding. Outlook for demand has improved with news indicating progress towards developing COVID-19 vaccines. A U.S. official said first inoculations in the United States could start a day or two after regulatory approval was secured. British drugmaker AstraZeneca said on Monday its vaccine, developed along with the University of Oxford, could be around 90% effective under one dosing regimen. PVM analyst Stephen Brennock said the news was detaching sentiment from "gloomy fundamentals." "Investors are ignoring near-term headwinds, chief among which are surging global COVID infections, and instead looking ahead to next summer," he said. On the supply side, OPEC+, which meets on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1. It will look at options to extend their deal on output cuts by at least three months from January. Smaller Russian oil companies are still planning to pump more crude this year, a group representing the producers said. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group on Monday said it fired a missile that struck a Saudi Aramco site in the western city of Jeddah. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of the claim. Aramco's main oil facilities in are in the east.

WTI Settles Above $43 a Barrel  -- Global oil prices hit the highest level since March as hopes for a vaccine rollout within weeks brightened the outlook for fuel consumption. Brent crude futures rose 2.5% in London, following a broader market rally after AstraZeneca Plc became the latest company to report a vaccine that protects most people. Vaccinations will “hopefully” start by Dec. 12, Moncef Slaoui, head of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program, said on CNN. Strong manufacturing out of the U.S. and Germany also buoyed crude. The prospect of a treatment is starting to reshape the oil futures curve, with some near-term prices rebounding more than later-dated ones, a bullish structure known as backwardation that signals investors expect supply and demand to return to balance. That happened with some so-called timespreads for West Texas Intermediate on Friday, and on Monday Brent’s two nearest contracts flipped to backwardation for the first time since this summer. “The compression of the timespreads along the futures curve has come with the strong gains in the prompt price, fueled by Covid-19 vaccine optimism,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA. The strength at the front of the curve “reflects the tightening of supply availability driven by OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts and strong demand for crude from Asia.” The surge in crude prices has accompanied a slew of positive updates from pharmaceutical companies on their progress toward a Covid-19 vaccine. The broad market euphoria amid vaccine developments has led Brent crude futures to notch a nearly 23% gain so far this month, even as U.S. hospitalizations of Covid-19 patients rises to the most since early April. Renewed virus lockdowns in Europe have pushed the region’s economy into another contraction. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia confirmed that Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted one of its oil facilities in northern Jeddah province. The early Monday attack caused a fire at an oil tank inside a fuel-distribution center, the kingdom’s energy ministry said. “The overall ‘risk-on’ sentiment is being driven by more positive vaccine news this weekend, and oil prices in particular are being propelled higher by aggressive ‘short’ covering, especially in the ICE Brent contract,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank. On top of further short covering, “the oil market will be focused on the OPEC+ meeting which is set for next week and which will likely begin to garner a great deal of attention as the week goes on.” West Texas Intermediate for January delivery climbed 64 cents to settle at $43.06 a barrel, its highest since Aug. 26. Brent for January settlement gained $1.10 to $46.06 a barrel.

Oil closes at highest level since March on vaccine trials, Biden transition (Reuters) - Oil rose about 4% on Tuesday to touch highs not seen since March as a third promising coronavirus vaccine raised hope for fuel- demand recovery and U.S. President-elect Joe Biden began his transition to the White House. Brent crude settled at $47.86 a barrel, gaining $1.80, or 3.9%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $44.91 a barrel, rising $1.85 or 4.3%. Both benchmarks ended at their highest close since March 5. AstraZeneca on Monday said its COVID-19 vaccine was 70% effective in trials and could be up to 90% effective, giving the fight against the pandemic another potential vaccine after positive results from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. However, the vaccine will not be readily available for several months, meaning people will likely restrict travel and other activities through next year to try to slow the spread of the disease. “The petroleum complex is the vaccine trade,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “Until we can see the other side of the pandemic, the market is going to be mired in slack demand that is going to keep the overhang extensive.” The coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the collapse of an OPEC-led output pact, sent prices crashing in March. After the collapse of that output pact led to a brief Saudi Arabia-Russia price war, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies agreed a new deal on record production cuts to support prices. The group known as OPEC+ is expected to roll over those cuts into 2021 after meeting Nov. 30 to Dec. 1, following technical talks this week. In addition, the administration of President Donald Trump, a Republican, gave the Democratic president-elect access to resources that will enable him to take over in January after delaying for weeks despite Trump’s loss in the Nov. 3 election. Biden’s early selection of top advisers helped buoy crude futures and equities, which oil often follows. Oil prices pared gains slightly in post-settlement trade after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels in the week to Nov. 20 to about 490 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 127,000 barrels.

WTI Dips After Surprise Crude Build -  Oil prices roared higher today (along with energy stocks) with WTI topping $45 for the first time since March on the heels of ongoing positivity around vaccine timelines and the Biden transition process (as well as hopes for stimulus and uber-easy money for as long as anyone can see). “The fact that we have more certainty on what hopefully is an orderly transition is putting some wind in the sails for crude,”  “The biggest issue ahead is how willing they’ll be to cross the aisle and enable a stimulus package to happen. That’s going to be a primary driver” for prices.  For now, all eyes are back on inventories as the Cushing hug is rapidly filling.  API

• Crude +3.8mm (-300k exp)
• Cushing -1.4mm
• Gasoline +1.3mm
• Distillates -1.8mm

Crude stocks rose for the 3rd week in a row as distillates drew down once again... WTI traded just below $45 ahead of the API print and dipped after the bigger than expected build... “Demand has real potential to pick up rather quickly to the extent that these vaccines roll out,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “If we can get a close above $45, it will be very positive, because we’ve been stuck in this range for months.”

Oil prices rally further on vaccine optimism despite inventory rise - Oil jumps to 8-month high on U.S. inventory drop, vaccine hopes - Oil prices climbed to the highest in more than eight months on Wednesday, after data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, extending a rally driven by hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will boost fuel demand. Brent crude was up 47 cents, or 1%, at $48.33 a barrel, having risen almost 4% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 80 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $45.71 per barrel, after rising more than 4% on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 754,000 barrels last week, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 127,000-barrel rise. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, fell by 1.7 million barrels. "There was a decent drawdown at Cushing, so that's supportive. It was probably the most bullish aspect of this report," Still, price gains were capped due to lingering concerns over oil demand. U.S. weekly gasoline demand last week dropped by about 128,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.13 million bpd, the lowest since June 2020. AstraZeneca said on Monday its COVID-19 vaccine could be up to 90% effective, providing another weapon in the fight to control the pandemic. "Crude oil prices are trading at their highest levels since early March, supported by positive market sentiment as a result of vaccine news and strong oil demand in Asia," . A weaker dollar also supported crude prices as a lower greenback makes oil less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar has helped temper the impact of surging oil prices for some of the world's largest consumers of energy," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM. Brent has moved into backwardation, a market structure in which oil for immediate delivery costs more than supply later. Backwardation encourages inventories to be drawn down and suggests lingering fears about a glut have receded. Brent futures for February delivery were trading about 13 cents above January contracts , the highest since July. "Positive vaccine news and swift deployment views are behind a significant part of this move in the curve, supported by increasingly firm beliefs by the market that OPEC+ will extend its current output targets for Q1 2021,"

Oil Prices Surge Amid Weaker Dollar and Surprise Draw  -- Oil closed at an eight-month high amid a weakening dollar and optimism surrounding a surprise decline in U.S. crude supplies and recent breakthroughs on a Covid-19 vaccine. Futures in New York advanced 1.8% on Wednesday after rallying the three previous sessions. An Energy Information Administration report showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell 754,000 barrels last week. At the same time, positive developments on a vaccine have spurred a swift reshaping of oil’s futures curve, with several key markers moving into a bullish backwardation structure in recent days. In addition, Chinese and Indian refiners issued a flurry of tenders seeking crude oil for loading in January, highlighting the strong demand coming from parts of Asia. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.2%, boosting the appeal for commodities priced in the currency. “It has been a really good run. We haven’t seen a run like this since the spring after we went to negative prices,” said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. “Sentiment certainly has changed pretty quickly. At any point, it all could take a breather, but lately it feels like supply and demand fundamentals are heading in the right direction.” While optimism over vaccines has helped lift the U.S. crude benchmark more than 25% so far this month, the swift rally poses yet another headache for OPEC+ ahead of next week’s meeting to evaluate the group’s output strategy. In the latest sign of growing rifts within the cartel, Iraq’s deputy leader said that OPEC should take members’ economic and political conditions into account when deciding production quotas rather than adopting a “one-size-fits-all” approach. West Texas Intermediate prices for 2021 were at their strongest level since March on Wednesday, while those for 2022 were at their highest since September. The higher forward prices are boosting the incentive for oil producers to lock in their supplies for the coming years. Prices have also been supported by renewed geopolitical tensions, with recent attacks on a fuel depot in the Saudi city of Jeddah and on an oil tanker in the Red Sea. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose 80 cents to settle at $45.71 a barrel. Brent for the same month advanced 75 cents to end the session at $48.61 a barrel. Both benchmarks are at the highest level since March 5. Aside from the headline crude draw, the EIA report showed a decline in inventories at the nation’s biggest storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma and the 10th straight draw in distillate supplies. But there were some bearish data points: gasoline stockpiles rose over 2 million barrels and crude production ticked higher.

Oil extends gains on surprise U.S. inventory draw amid vaccine rally - U.S. oil rose for a fifth day on Thursday as a surprise drop in crude inventories extended a rally driven by hopes that vaccines would end the coronavirus pandemic and revive fuel demand. Brent was up by 20 cents, or 0.4%, at $48.81 a barrel, after rising around 1.6% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate crude was up by 14 cents, or 0.3%, at $45.85, having gained 1.8% on Wednesday. Both benchmarks have risen about 9% this week, getting a boost after AstraZeneca said on Monday its Covid-19 vaccine could be up to 90% effective, adding to the potential armory to end the worst pandemic in a century. U.S. oil stockpiles fell 754,000 barrels last week, data showed, while analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 127,000-barrel rise. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for WTI, fell 1.7 million barrels. But gasoline demand for the week fell by 128,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.13 million bpd, the lowest since June. "With new U.S. virus cases still at very high levels, we think that it probably won't be until next year – once vaccines can have a material impact – that demand recovers to more normal levels," Capital Economics said in a note. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has urged people to forgo big family gatherings, wear protective masks and maintain social distancing for the Thanksgiving holiday in the face of the surging coronavirus pandemic. But Americans are defying pleas from officials to stay home. The United States has recorded 2.3 million new infections in the past two weeks.

Oil Rally Stalls Amid OPEC+ Tensions -- Brent oil edged lower -- but was on track for a fourth weekly gain -- amid signs of division among OPEC+ members just days before a key policy meeting on whether to extend production curbs. Futures in London traded near $48 a barrel after falling 1.7% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate dropped 2% from Wednesday, with prices not closing on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. While most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting OPEC+ will postpone a planned supply hike by three months to March at a meeting early next week, some see a chance of a shorter delay amid resistance from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, which are eager to resume oil sales. OPEC’s president said the group must remain cautious, with internal data pointing to the risk of a new surplus early next year if output is hiked in January. That came after Iraq’s deputy leader criticized the cartel, saying the economic and political conditions of member countries should be considered before they are asked to withhold production. The recent rally gives leverage to members who want to pump more, Standard Chartered Plc said in a note. Crude is up around 6% this week as signs Covid-19 vaccines could soon be rolled out brighten the consumption outlook, even as a resurgent virus led to more lockdown measures, particularly in Europe. There was also fresh evidence the demand recovery in Asia is gaining traction. Chinese industrial profits rose at the fastest pace in almost nine years in October, while Indian economic growth data due Friday is forecast to show a sharp recovery last quarter. “At this stage it looks like we are looking at a pullback in an uptrend,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. It’s “almost certain” there will be some form of OPEC+ agreement, but the meeting is possibly less influential than it might have been given the focus on demand, he said. Brent for January delivery declined 0.4% to $47.59 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at 7:43 a.m. in London and is up 5.8% this week. WTI for the same month January delivery fell 2% from Wednesday to $44.80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange rose 0.2% to 289.1 yuan per barrel and have risen around 11% this week. Brent is up 27% this month, with the global benchmark closing at overbought levels on Wednesday, a sign that a possible reversal had been on the cards. Several key oil timespreads have flipped to backwardation this week, a bullish signal where near-dated prices are more expensive than later-dated ones.

Oil prices post weekly gain ahead of OPEC+ meeting (Reuters) - Oil prices were mixed on Friday but posted a fourth straight week of gains ahead of an OPEC+ meeting early next week. Brent crude January futures rose 38 cents to settle at $48.18 a barrel, while the more active February contract gained 46 cents to $48.25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 18 cents to settle at $45.53 a barrel. Brent rose 7.2% over the week, while WTI gained 8% for the week. Encouraging news on potential COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca and others have lifted the markets. However, questions have been raised over AstraZeneca’s “vaccine for the world,” with several scientists sounding caution over the trial results. “While a successful vaccine rollout should break the link between infection and mobility, even then global oil demand will likely only reach its pre-pandemic run rate by mid-2022,” JP Morgan said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia are leaning towards delaying next year’s planned increase in oil output, said three sources close to the OPEC+ group. OPEC+ was planning to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January - about 2% of global consumption - after record supply cuts this year. OPEC+ ministers are due to meet from Monday. “The market expects prices to see a limited increase if OPEC+ indeed does what is expected and changes its planned route, postponing a planned supply increase from January,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets A panel of OPEC+ will hold informal online talks on Sunday - a day later than scheduled, a source with the knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Rising Libyan output is also contributing to concerns about oversupply in the market. The OPEC member, which is exempt from the oil cuts, has added more than 1.1 million bpd of output since early September.

Oil prices end mixed Friday but both grades log sharp weekly gain  -Crude-oil futures on Friday finished mixed ahead of an important OPEC meeting, after settling on Wednesday at the highest level since early March. U.S. financial markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and energy markets settled early, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time, on Friday. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery was down 18 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $45.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a 1.8% gain on Wednesday. January Brent crude, the global benchmark, however, climbed 38 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $48.18 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 1.6% gain for grade oil in the previous session. For the week, WTI gained 7.3% for its largest one-week gain since Oct. 9 and its fourth straight gain, while Brent picked up 7.2%, and also notched a fourth weekly rise in a row, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

OPEC+ Calls Last Minute Talks-- Saudi Arabia and Russia summoned OPEC+ ministers who oversee their oil production cuts for last-minute talks on Saturday, as the cartel prepares for a decision on whether to delay January’s output increase. A clear majority of OPEC+ watchers expect the group to maintain their supply curbs at current levels for a few months longer due to lingering uncertainty about the strength of demand. However, the decision is by no means certain amid public complaints from Iraq and Nigeria, and private discord with the United Arab Emirates. The two leading members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, requested an informal video conference with their counterparts from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which includes Algeria, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg. The unscheduled gathering comes just two days before a full OPEC ministerial meeting on Nov. 30, which will be followed by OPEC+ talks on Dec. 1. The JMMC met online as recently as Nov. 17, but that ended without any kind of recommendation about delaying the January supply increase. On Thursday, Algerian Energy Minister Abdelmadjid Attar -- who this year holds OPEC’s rotating presidency -- told Bloomberg News that the group must remain cautious because the recent surge in oil to $45 a barrel in New York this week could prove fragile. A separate meeting of a committee of OPEC technical experts considered data that pointed to the risk of a new oil surplus early next year if the cartel and its allies decide to go ahead with the production increase. The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition is scheduled to ease its 7.7 million barrels a day of production cuts by 1.9 million barrels a day from Jan. 1

 Saudi Aramco’s Landmark IPO Is Costing The Kingdom Billions --The initial public offering (IPO) of Saudi Aramco that was heralded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as being a showcase flotation for raising massive new capital for the Kingdom and anchoring a major expansion of its international equities market presence has proven only to put Aramco into a debt spiral and highlighted a myriad of problems in Saudi Arabia to international investors.Now, Aramco is digging itself further into serious debt through bond issuances simply to pay for the huge dividend payments promised by MbS that were absolutely required to persuade anyone to buy into the omni-toxic IPO. At this rate, the debt taken on by Aramco and other Saudi bond offerings to pay for the dividends will be far more than the amount of money raised in the IPO.As a direct result of MbS deciding to go ahead with yet another oil price war at the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic was gathering pace and destroying demand for oil, Aramco’s finances have suffered a massive hit. For the first half of this year, the company saw a 50 percent plunge in net profit and at the beginning of this month, it reported another massive drop in profits of 44.6 percent for the third quarter, falling to SAR44.21 billion (US$11.79 billion) from SAR79.84 billion in the same period last year.On the other side of the balance sheet, though, is the stark fact that because the company’s IPO was so toxic on so many levels that it was shunned by Western investors and had to be off-loaded to buyers who were either bullied or bribed into buying the stock Aramco is left having to pay massive guaranteed dividend payments for the foreseeable future to those shareholders. This huge guaranteed dividend payment of US$18.75 billion per quarter – US$75 billion for a full year – will have to be paid for through budget cuts over and above the US$15 billion in Aramco’s annual capital spending alluded to by Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser, just after the first half profits figures were unveiled. This will take the total down from around US$40 billion to around US$25 billion. Further reports have stated that even this US$25 billion figure is set to be reduced by another US$5 billion, taking the total capital spending in this year from US$25 billion to US$20 billion. Whatever the cuts, it remains the case that the first two dividends together for the first two quarters of this year – US$37.5 billion – far outstripped Aramco’s total free cash flow of US$21.1 billion for the same period. The latest profits number for the third quarter, meanwhile, covers just 62.88 percent of the dividend payment, never mind any other expenses or investment for projects ongoing or planned that Aramco may have had in mind. To put this even more clearly: Aramco’s entire profit for the third quarter cannot even cover the dividend it owes for the same quarter, not even two-thirds of it!

 Netanyahu meets with Saudi crown prince: reports - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Sunday night, according to multiple reports, in what would be the first known meeting between the two countries’ top leaders. Israeli media initially reported the covert meeting before Education Minister Yoav Galant confirmed it in a radio interview. “The fact that the meeting took place and was made public — even if it was in only a semiofficial way — is something of great importance,” Galant said in an interview with GLZ Radio, calling the meeting “something our ancestors dreamed about.” Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, however, said no such meeting occurred. The meeting would be the latest sign of thawing relations between Israel and Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, largely brokered by the U.S. The moves have caused alarm among Palestinian activists, who say they undermine an agreement among Arab nations to boycott the country in solidarity. Saudi Arabia’s wealth, military position and religious significance within Islam would make it the most significant Middle Eastern nation yet to establish formal relations, but there is no sign yet of any such agreement, The New York Times noted. Reports in Israeli media said Netanyahu and the crown prince discussed Iran, among other topics. Further isolating Tehran, a mutual enemy, has been a point of agreement between Israel and several of the Arab countries with which it has established relations. The crown prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, was initially hailed as a reformer due to his relaxation of some of the kingdom’s strict laws. However, the 2018 killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate in Turkey largely derailed his international goodwill amid widespread reports it was done on the prince's orders.While Saudi Arabia’s King Salman remains a supporter of the boycott of Israel, the crown prince reportedly prefers to move on from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and considers an alliance against Iran a matter of more pressing importance, The Wall Street Journal reported..

US, Israel and Saudi Arabia meet amid mounting war threats against Iran - Both Israeli and Saudi officials have confirmed an unprecedented secret trip by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accompanied by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Yossi Cohen, the head of the Israeli spy agency Mossad, to Saudi Arabia on Sunday. Israel Army Radio first reported the trip and meeting between the US and Israeli officials and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which was confirmed by a senior Saudi official speaking to the Wall Street Journal. This marks the first publicly reported talks of this kind, though meetings between Israeli and Saudi military and intelligence officials are believed to have taken place with greater frequency in recent years.Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan subsequently tweeted a denial of the report, saying, “No such meeting occurred. The only officials present were American and Saudi.” The denial reflects the controversial nature of the meeting within Saudi Arabia, where the ruling House of Saud has postured as the guardian of Islam and has formally insisted that “normalization” of ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv are contingent on the implementation of a Middle East peace deal and the creation of an independent Palestinian state.The Sunni oil monarchies of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain dispensed with such conditions, however, in signing onto a US-brokered deal in August to recognize Israel. The monarchy in Bahrain, which rules over an oppressed Shia majority population, depends upon Saudi Arabia for its survival and could not have entered the agreement without its approval. The meeting between Pompeo, Netanyahu and bin Salman in the Red Sea city of Neom, like the August deal, was aimed not at achieving Middle East peace, but rather solidifying an alliance between Washington, Israel and the Saudi monarchy, the linchpin of reaction and imperialist domination in the Middle East, in preparation for a war against Iran. This has been the main objective of Pompeo’s extraordinary 10-day foreign tour, conducted barely two months before inauguration day, and what, according to the election results, should be the swearing in of a new administration headed by Democrat Joe Biden. On the eve of his trip, he told a reporter asking whether he anticipated a “smooth transition” at the US State Department that there would indeed be “a smooth transition to a second Trump administration,” openly aligning US foreign policy with the post-election coup attempt being staged from the White House.

 Houthi rebels claim attack on Saudi oil facility with cruise missile --Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday claimed they carried out a predawn cruise missile attack on a Saudi oil facility hours after the kingdom finished hosting a virtual Group of 20 (G-20) summit.Houthi military spokesman Yehia Sarie tweeted that the group fired a new Quds-2 cruise missile at a Saudi Aramco distribution station in Jeddah on the Red Sea coast. “The attack was very accurate where the ambulances, fire engines rushed to the target location,” Sarie wrote on Twitter. He added that the strike was in response to the Saudi-led coalition's “ongoing blockade and aggression” in Yemen, and that foreign companies and residents in Saudi Arabia should “be away from vital facilities that are important” as “operations are continuing.”He posted a satellite image labeled as Aramco’s North Jeddah Bulk Plant, which can be found on Google Maps.Saudi state-run media did not immediately acknowledge any attack. A Saudi-led coalition has been fighting against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen since March 2015, when the coalition intervened to restore the Yemeni government ousted by Houthi forces.

British Military Sent On Secret Mission To Protect Saudi Oilfields - The United Kingdom has had troops deployed in Saudi Arabia to protect its oilfields from attacks since February this year, The News reported this week, a local newspaper in Portsmouth in the UK.  A small team from the 16th Regiment Royal Artillery, which is based near Portsmouth, were sent to Saudi Arabia to man Giraffe radars, which can track aircraft and missiles up to 75 miles away.  After the report, the UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that the mission was to protect oilfields in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, from attacks, in the wake of the September 2019 attacks on critical Saudi oil infrastructure that affected half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, or around 5 percent of global oil supply, for weeks.    The Saudi oilfields that UK troops help to protect are “critical economic infrastructure,” the UK Ministry of Defence told The Independent.   “Following the attacks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities on 14 September 2019, we have worked with the Saudi Ministry of Defence and wider international partners to consider how to strengthen the defense of its critical economic infrastructure from aerial threats,” a spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told The Independent.  Opposition parties in the UK criticized the government for not only providing assistance to Saudi Arabia but for also failing to adequately inform the public and Parliament of the mission.    The report about UK troops helping to protect Saudi oilfields from attacks emerged just after the Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday said they had fired a missile against a target in the Saudi city of Jeddah and had hit it. The target was a distribution center property of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco.   Saudi Arabia confirmed on Monday, via its Saudi Press Agency, that there was an explosion at the petroleum products distribution terminal in Jeddah. 

Yemen: More Damage To World Peace And Security Due To Trump Wrecking Everything As He Exits - Still denying his obvious loss, Donald Trump is trashing everything in sight. Very serious matters of foreign policy are part of this. One of these has been discussed in comments here previously, the removal from the Open Skies Treaty, which right now I am watching Rachel Maddow report that DOD is destroying the planes US used for this. Ack!!! But for this post I am noting another awful thing they are doing along a bunch of others. This involves Yemen, long one of the worst humanitarian disasters on the planet, horrible, but so in place for so long that most people pay no attention anymore because, bore, been there done that snore. But it continues to be a place of ongoing civilian deaths from bombs and economic deprivation. So, just to make things “better,” the Trump admin has decided to declare that the Houthi group who rule not only most of northern Yemen, but also its capitol, Sana’a, to be officially a “terrorist group.” The immediate result of this ruling is that all kinds of humanitarian aid that has been going to people in the parts of Yemen they live in will no longer receive it. This is morally awful and just plain stupid. So this is part of Trump frustrated in his anti-Iran policy. He exited the Iran nuclear treaty, leading to a massive increase in enriched uranium there. Ooops! He killed a top general from there to stop attacks on US forces in Iraq by Iranian militias. But those continue, with more political support in Iraq. Duh. The argument for this move on the Houthis is that they are backed by Iran, which they are. But that is a far secondary matter. The Houthis are Zaydi Shia in contrast with the 12-Iman Shia of Iran, not close at all. While Trump admin has long claimed Iran has armed them, most evidence has suggested not much. Most of the Houthi arms are leftover US arms. The other part of this is the Saudis, who have been waging war against the Houthis, with Trump deeply tied to the murderous Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who has been behind this awful war against the Houthis in Yemen, support that dates back to the Obama admin. This makes this a serious issue for the incoming Biden admin. I note that Congress has in recent years moved away from supporting this horrendous war in Yemen that has led to massive deaths among innocent civilians. Those votes that had support from many GOPs in Congress were turned down by Trump vetoes. So, I think it will not be that hard for Biden to finally end this corrupt relation between Trump and MbS to end US support for this war.

Massive Armada Of IRGC Boats Mobilize In Gulf Amid Rumors Israeli Strike Imminent - The naval forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday conducted large-scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz at a moment Tehran believes Israel will launch a preemptive strike aimed at drawing Trump into ordering US military action in the region before he leaves office in January. According to state-run English language PressTV, "The event saw sailors, enlisted with the popular volunteer Basij force, taking to the waters aboard more than 1,000 light and semi-heavy-lift vessels."Photos showed an impressive number of small but fast military boats that are typically used by the IRGC Navy (which is separate from the much larger national navy of the Islamic Republic) to harass and encircle larger ships, whether tankers or foreign warships.  IRGC Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri, who oversaw the maneuvers, called it a display of strength and a showcasing of Iran's "maritime power" which provides security in the Arabian and Oman Seas. Crucially the 'show of force' comes amid widespread reports that Trump is mulling some of kind of preemptive action against either Iran or its regional allies, such as the powerful Shia militias in Iraq.Earlier this month The New York Times reported that Trump's advisers talked him down from ordering a strike, which they argued would certainly spiral into a larger war.  Included in the "strike options" were most likely plans to hit the Natanz enrichment facility, according to the report, which suffered sabotage and damage last summer in a likely Israeli covert operation but which is being repaired and rebuilt.Israel too is said to be preparing for such a scenario, with its armed forces said to be in a high state of readiness. Iran is apparently taking these reports very seriously.

Head Of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Project Assassinated; Iran Armed Forces Chief Vows Revenge -  Amid speculation that Israel is on war footing over a possible strike in Iran in the coming weeks, moments ago Iranian state media reported that the country's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in Damavand, east of Tehran. He was reportedly accompanied by his bodyguard when they were attacked by a “suicide” attacker at the entrance of Absard town. According to Iran Front Page News, Fakhrizadeh was killed by shooting, but before the shootout, his car has been stopped with an explosion at Mostafa Khomeini Blvd. Several others are also reportedly killed in the incident, but haven’t been identified yet. Fakhrizadeh was a brigadier general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and headed Iran’s nuclear weapons project.He was a professor of physics at the Imam Hussein University in Tehran and was former head of Iran's Physics Research Center.While there has been no official confirmation of the death yet, and Iran Atomic Energy organization has denied the reports, saying that no incident involving nuclear scientists took place according to ISNA News Agency, Iran's revolutionary guards commander wrote on Twitter that Iran will avenge the killing of scientists as it has in the past according to the Jerusalem Post.  No one has yet claimed responsibility for the assassination, but the Israeli regime has a history of hiring hit men to assassinate nuclear scientists in Iran. In 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said "remember that name" after he announced that the Mossad had obtained 100,000 files from Iran's secret nuclear archives. The files retrieved by Mossad focused on the secret Iranian nuclear program that was developed from 1999 to 2003 called Project Amad, which was led by Fakhrizadeh. When Iran entered the 2015 nuclear deal, it denied that such a program existed. After the April 2018 killing of several nuclear scientists in Iran, a "protective shield of secrecy and security" had been thrown around Fakhrizadeh, in an effort to protect him against Israeli assassins.

Iran Accuses Israel Of Seeking To Provoke "Full-Blown War" With Brazen Assassination - Since news broke hours ago of the assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on the streets in a city just east of Tehran, Iranian leaders have blamed an Israeli assassination plot.Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said there were "Serious indications of Israeli role" in killing of Fakhrizadeh, who subsequently died of his wounds in a hospital. What Iran has dubbed a terrorist attack reportedly involved a hail of machine gun fire and a suicide bomber explosion. And a top military adviser to Iran's supreme leader and former IRGC general issued a similar allegation on Twitter. Hossein Dehghan wrote: "In the last days of their gambling ally’s political life, the Zionists seek to intensify and increase pressure on Iran to wage a full-blown war," Dehghan wrote, appearing to refer to U.S. President Donald Trump. "We will descend like lightning on the killers of this oppressed martyr and we will make them regret their actions!"Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today. This cowardice—with serious indications of Israeli role—shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators  Iran calls on int'l community—and especially EU—to end their shameful double standards & condemn this act of state terror.— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) November 27, 2020   According to Iran Front Page News, Fakhrizadeh was killed by shooting, but before the shootout, his car has been stopped with an explosion at Mostafa Khomeini Blvd. Several others are also reportedly killed in the incident, but haven’t been identified yet. Tasnim reported further details as follows:At 2:30 PM Iran time, a Nissan commercial vehicle exploded near Fahrizadeh's car. Immediately afterwards the assassins fired at Fahrizadeh & his bodyguard. Fahrizadeh was rushed by helicopter to the hospital where he died of his wounds.Fakhrizadeh was a brigadier general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and headed Iran’s nuclear weapons project. He was a professor of physics at the Imam Hussein University in Tehran and was former head of Iran's Physics Research Center.He was widely considered "father of Iran's nuclear program" - but which the Islamic Republic has long insisted has remained for peaceful domestic energy purposes.

 Watch- Moment German Commandos Intercept & Raid Turkish Ship Bound For Libya - The Turkish media published a video this week showing the interception and search of a Turkish cargo vessel by German forces which happened Sunday as part of the European Union's "Irini" operation in the Mediterranean. According to reports, the Turkish merchant ship was bound for the Libyan coast before it was stopped by the German naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean. In the video shared by RT, the German forces can be seen approaching the vessel with its warship and helicopters, as they later entered the ship to search its contents.On Monday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned Germany’s attempted inspection, calling it a violation of international law.According to Deutsche Welle:A diplomatic spat erupted between Turkey and Germany on Monday after Ankara accused German troops of carrying out a search of a freighter as part of the EU's Irini mission to enforce the UN's Libya arms embargo.The Turkish Foreign Ministry said it had summoned the envoys to Ankara of Germany, the EU and Italy to protest the "unauthorized" operation."We protest this action, which was conducted without authority and with the use of force," the ministry said. The German army confirmed that Turkey prevented German forces operating within a military mission of the European Union from inspecting a Turkish cargo ship "believed to be transporting weapons to Libya."

Mexico Confirms Its Economy Rebounded in Third Quarter – WSJ —Mexico’s economy bounced back in the third quarter, led by increases in industrial output as business reopened from shutdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but activity remained well below its year-earlier level, revised data show. Gross domestic product, a measure of output in goods and services, expanded a seasonally adjusted 12.1% in the July-September period following a record 17% contraction in the second quarter, the National Statistics Institute said Thursday. The revised reading was little changed from the advance estimate of a 12% expansion reported at the end of October. Compared with the third quarter of 2019, economic activity was down 8.6%. The increase in output snapped a string of five consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Industrial production rose 21.7% from the second quarter, boosted by the reopening of key sectors like auto production and construction, which had been at a virtual standstill in April and May. Services grew 8.8% from the second quarter, and agricultural production was 8% higher. Despite the quick recovery in the quarter, the economy remains on track for its deepest full-year contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Bank of Mexico said Wednesday that it now expects GDP to shrink 8.9% this year, when previously it had predicted a contraction between 8.8% and 12.8%. The central bank forecasts growth of 3.3% for 2021. “This assumes a gradual recovery, with caution by consumers and investors because of the pandemic,”

What Would a State-Owned Amazon Look Like? Ask Argentina - In October, a historic US Congressional investigation into big tech published a report which proposed a raft of new regulations to rein in the power of tech giants like Amazon. But what if instead of relying on regulations, the US introduced a new online marketplace that delivered low prices to consumers, lower costs for merchants and living wages for workers in e-commerce?  Last October, Argentina announced the creation of an online marketplace called “Correo Compras”. The platform is to be run by a state-owned company, Correo Argentino, which is also the country’s official postal service. Argentina has been severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, and its lockdown has been among the longest. Even before the pandemic internet penetration in Argentina was already high (74%), and since the lockdown e-commerce and other digital services thrived in the country. Through its publicly owned option, the government aims to offer an alternative to Latin America’s current e-commerce private octopus. Though you may never have heard of it, the Amazon of the Amazonian continent is not Amazon.com – the global behemoth whose market capitalization grew 75% this year. Rather, Latin America’s amazonian e-commerce honors go to MercadoLibre, or ‘FreeMarket’ in English. Born in 1999, the company quickly adopted the business models first of eBay and then of Amazon and China’s Alibaba.  The absence of foreign platforms in the region allowed MercadoLibre to develop a profitable business. The company now has the largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, operating in eighteen countries, with 51.5 million active users.Far from the image of a ‘national champion’ that contributes to other businesses’ catching-up and, eventually, the region’s development, MercadoLibre simply copied Amazon’s business model. It is an e-commerce marketplace that squeezes value from third-party sellers.Just like Bezos’s giant, MercadoLibre imposes transaction conditions: from fees to be listed higher when people search for goods, to advertising campaigns inside the marketplace. MercadoLibre also forces sellers to offer free shipping when the purchase is above USD25.Once again copying Amazon, MercadoLibre’s delivery network mobilizes an Uber-like army of drivers seeking out a living through the sharing economy, and its fulfillment centers are beset by low pay and stressful working conditions. Though MercadoLibre technically is a union shop, it has implemented a new flexible employment contract that basically optimizes profits and minimizes pay. In comparison, the government’s “Correo Compras” will not outsource shipping (which is in fact its core business) and promises to create quality jobs with a living wage for its employees.

 Global Trade Stages Rapid Recovery – WSJ -Global trade flows bounced back strongly in the summer, marking the largest rise in two decades as air and sea transport channels reopened while demand for consumer goods surged.The rebound has been led by China, which has increased its share of total exports, and left trade volumes in September less than 2% below their levels at the end of 2019.The flows of goods across borders were 12.5% higher in the three months through September than in the second quarter, when flows fell by 12.2%, the CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis said Wednesday. That was the largest rise since records began in 2000, following the largest fall.More timely indicators suggest the rebound in trade has continued since the end of the third quarter. Surveys of purchasing managers at factories around the world point to a continued rise in export orders in October, while a measure of container traffic compiled by Germany’s Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics hit a record high in the same month.“The first slump due to the corona crisis seems to have been overcome,” said Torsten Schmidt, director of economics at the Leibniz Institute.The strength of the trade revival has varied, with China and other developing countries in Asia leading the way, while the U.S. has lagged behind. The CPB’s figures indicate that while exports from China and other developing countries in Asia had already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels in September, exports from the eurozone were still down 2.6%, and exports from the U.S. down almost 9%.That pattern partly reflects the fact that China was the first major exporter to suffer from a surge in infections, and emerged from its lockdown just as Europe, the U.S. and much of the rest of the world were entering theirs.It was therefore in a strong position to meet surging demand for protective medical equipment and electronic devices that helped people work from home in other parts of the world. Economists at UBS estimate that by July, China’s share of world exports had risen by 11%, while the U.S.’s share had fallen by 4% and France’s share by 12%.

The Prosperity Hoax - In recent years, a spate of articles in the anglophone press and academia have suggested that global poverty has entered terminal decline—all thanks to capitalism. The World Bank has churned out a series of reports over the last six years promoting this cheery story. “The world has made tremendous progress in reducing extreme poverty,” the Bank declared in its “Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018” report. Over a quarter of humanity had escaped indigence in the past twenty-five years, its research showed. Where once the majority of the world population lived in poverty, now the figure was just 10 percent. Just a decade earlier, it had seemed like hard times for free-market triumphalists, particularly in America, as the financial crisis rudely discredited their fantasies of ineluctable progress. Against this, the World Bank offered a redemptive story. Whatever the injustices and corruptions of globalized capitalism, it had lifted millions out of destitution. The spread of privately owned capital and free trade would see extreme poverty disappear by as early as 2030. With that, the most basic form of human suffering would be consigned to history. It was clear to those who lived in poor countries that there were problems with the World Bank’s data. Consider only the Middle East. Anyone who visits Egypt for even a short time will not fail to notice that at least half of the country’s one hundred million people live in terrible penury. Egypt’s military regime, which had every reason to downplay the problem, pegged the official poverty headcount at 33 percent in 2019. Yet the World Bank announced in 2015 that poverty had been all but eliminated in Egypt. Not nearly a third, but only 1 percent of the Egyptian population were deemed to be living in extreme poverty by the Bank’s calculations. In Algeria it was zero percent. The scavengers who scrape a living from the edges of the Diyarbakir garbage dump in southeastern Turkey were not living in extreme poverty either. According to the Bank, no one in Turkey was.

Greek government bans protests, imposes authoritarian measures utilising pretext of pandemic - Greece’s conservative New Democracy (ND) government is imposing dictatorial measures, using the COVID-19 pandemic as justification. Last week it mounted a huge police mobilisation in the run-up to the November 17 anniversary of the 1973 Athens Polytechnic student uprising against the military junta that ruled Greece from 1967 to 1974. Using the pandemic as a pretext, Chief of the Hellenic Police Michalis Karamalakis banned all public gatherings of four or more people between November 15 and November 18, which is the period during which commemoration events traditionally take place. On November 17, the police deployed 5,000 officers in the capital. Despite the ban, protesters attended commemorations, only to be met with water cannons and tear gas, with the police utilising overhead drones to transmit live footage to police headquarters. The claim that the right to assembly was banned on public health grounds does not hold water. Cases in Greece have been steadily rising since the summer following the government’s decision to prematurely lift restrictions to kickstart the economy. With no significant resources allocated to counter the dire effects of this reopening, Greece’s advantage of having had relatively few deaths in the first wave of the pandemic—the result of going into lockdown earlier than other European countries—has now been undone. People are routinely crammed into public transport with only a mask as protection. The current death toll, as of November 24, stands at 1,815. This compares to 192 registered deaths on July 1, when the tourist sector was recklessly flung open for business. The health care system, decimated over the past decade by European Union-mandated austerity—carried out by social democratic, ND and SYRIZA governments alike—is already struggling to cope, with 85 percent of intensive care beds currently occupied.

Spain’s PSOE-Podemos government builds migrant concentration camps on Canary Islands - The Podemos-Socialist Party (PSOE) coalition government is erecting prison camps for migrants on the Canary Islands, a Spanish territory 1,000 kilometres off the coast of Morocco. Last Friday, PSOE Minister for Inclusion, Social Security and Migration José Luis Escrivá announced that the PSOE-Podemos government aims to have built tent camps capable of holding 6,000 migrants on the island chain by the end of 2020. A further 7,000 places will be made available to imprison migrants in more permanent buildings. Thousands of migrants currently being housed in hotels or other makeshift accommodation across the archipelago will be relocated to these internment camps. These brutal and anti-democratic measures are part of a murderous European Union campaign against refugees. At the EU’s instigation, concentration camps have been erected across Europe, one of the most notorious of which is on the Greek island of Lesbos. Thousands of desperate refugees continue to be interned in these overcrowded and unsanitary camps, which have become death traps with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Refugees are indefinitely detained in these facilities, with next to no chance of their asylum applications being heard by European authorities, in flagrant violation of international law. The Lesbos model is now being implemented on the Canary Islands by the PSOE-Podemos government. Many of the new prison camps being created across the Canary Islands will be set up in former barracks or other sites belonging to the Spanish military. In Gran Canaria, a tent camp to house 650 migrants will be constructed in the Canarias 50 army garrison, with the first migrants expected to be detained there by December. This site will ultimately house another 1,150 people in prefabricated shacks. A tent camp for a further 300 prisoners will be erected on the grounds of a former school on this island, the Colegio León, while an additional 400 migrants could be incarcerated in the school building itself. The Spanish bank Bankia has also “donated” a 7,000-metre-squared ship to serve as a prison for a further 500 migrants off the coast of Las Palmas, Gran Canaria. Between 200 and 250 migrants were already transferred to a tent camp at the Barranco Seco military site from Arguineguín port last week. Last Tuesday, Spanish police evicted more than 200 migrants from a temporary camp in this port, leaving them with nowhere to go and no food or other resources.  The migrants were eventually transferred to a complex in the town of Maspalomas, 12 kilometres from the port.

Strikes and protests across Germany against regular school operations- The incidence of infections in German schools has long since run out of control. Often, dozens of students and teachers are infected at a single school. But the federal and state governments have made clear that they want to keep schools fully open at all costs and are systematically covering up coronavirus cases. Under these conditions, students throughout Germany are beginning to take the protection of their health and their families into their own hands. After student strikes in Greece and Poland and strikes by teachers in France, students in Germany are also organizing school strikes and protests in more and more cities. They are no longer prepared to be sacrificed for a policy that puts the profit interests of billion-dollar corporations before the most basic needs of the population. Last Monday, students at the Hugo-Kükelhaus-Berufskolleg (HKBK) in Essen went on an “indefinite strike,” calling for hybrid teaching, i.e., a mixture of classroom and distance learning in which classes are divided up and taught in rotation. The WSWS has reported on this. “We are afraid,” the HKBK student council wrote in a statement on the strike. “Fear of infecting grandma and grandpa. Fear of infecting ourselves. Fear of losing people who mean a lot to us.” While “outside of schools [safety] measures were being intensified,” they continued to sit “day after day, for hours together in close quarters.” The Essen students appealed to their classmates at all “secondary and vocational schools in the country to do the same as us!” The WSWS spoke with Luisa Maria Cagnazzo, the HKBK student spokesperson, who reported many confirmed cases at the school. She said she had had personal contact with one person. “If classes continued to run as they have, I think it is inevitable that you become infected,” says Luisa. “Classes have divided themselves independently into A and B groups according to individual class size. They are now alternating between distance and in-person classes to halve the number of contacts.” Luisa reports that students are being put “under enormous pressure” by the authorities, the Education Ministry and the government, and explains, “Many are afraid of getting a six [bad mark] if they go on strike. I don’t think that’s right. It’s not acceptable that our education system punishes students for taking responsibility for the health of their fellow human beings.”

Boris Johnson announced end of national lockdown, prepares surge of COVID-19 UK prime minister Boris Johnson revealed yesterday the government’s plans for ending its one-month “lockdown” on December 2 and for allowing gatherings over Christmas. Thousands more will be allowed to die in the coming weeks to secure the corporations’ holiday season profits, with a renewed surge of the virus coinciding with the typical peak of the flu season. From Wednesday next week, all non-essential shops, gyms, hairdressers and other personal care businesses in England will be allowed to reopen, along with places of worship. The “Tier system” will be reintroduced with some modifications. Pubs, restaurants and cafes can now only act as takeaways in areas under Tier 3 restrictions and pubs and restaurants can only reopen fully in Tier 2 areas if they serve “substantial meals”. Reduced numbers of spectators will be allowed into indoor and outdoor sporting events. The so-called “rule of six” will be reinstated, allowing up to six people from different households to meet indoors or outdoors in Tier 1 areas, only outdoors in Tiers 2, and in limited outdoor settings in Tier 3. But even these limited restrictions will be scrapped for a period over Christmas. The Telegraph reports that up to four households will be allowed to come together in one home for December 24-28. The paper suggests that restrictions on pubs and restaurants will also be lifted for those five days. These measures confirm that Johnson is proceeding with its “herd immunity” policy. His partial lockdown was never intended to save lives, but to prevent a politically catastrophic overwhelming of the National Health Service (NHS) this December and provide a pretext for loosening restrictions in the commercially critical Christmas period. Now households will also be allowed to travel across the country and spend multiple nights under one roof. Business interests and their mouthpieces in the media have already taken their cue. The Daily Mail cheered yesterday, “Brace for Christmas shopping! The High Street re-opens next week with the end of national lockdown as Boris Johnson draws up plan for family 'bubbles' to gather for Christmas”. The Times likewise nodded its approval with the headline, “Boris Johnson to ease Covid lockdown with Christmas shopping spree”. Scientists warning of the disastrous impact of these decisions have been sidelined. Andrew Hayward, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), told the BBC last week: “My personal view is we’re putting far too much emphasis on having a near normal Christmas. We know respiratory infections peak in January, so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this.

UK universities expose thousands of international students to raging pandemic -  Universities have played a major role in the UK’s second wave of COVID-19 infections. Daily infections almost doubled over the first week of October as campuses reopened. This was the entirely predictable result of the reckless drive to encourage students back to the campuses for in-person teaching this term, with lies about “COVID-secure” campuses and a normal “university experience”. The marketised universities, increasingly dependent on private loans, feared that a move to fully online teaching would lead to masses of students deferring their entry, not taking up places in rent-racking student accommodation blocks or paying into the network of private interests with a place on university campuses, and demanding reductions in tuition fees. One of their primary concerns was that international students would view coming to the UK as too risky. International students have long been viewed by universities as "cash cows", with their financial strategies based on ever more aggressive international recruitment strategies and on increasing the fees charged to international students. According to the Times Higher Education, international students now often pay between £10,000 and £26,000 per year for undergraduate study. In April, there was widespread panic among UK universities as the pandemic looked likely to deter students from abroad travelling to the UK for study in the coming academic year. A briefing from the House of Commons library observed in April that international students paid £7 billion in fees alone in the academic year 2018-19 (17.3 percent of the income of the university sector). However, the threat of an exodus of international students failed to materialise. The number of international students accepting offers from UK universities in fact increased by seven percent over the previous year. This was in large part due to lies promoted by the government and universities that a safe return to campuses was possible. They sought to capitalise on the huge importance of UK university degrees for the life chances of many international students—whose families often save for years to meet the extortionate fees.

Tens of thousands made homeless in UK as winter looms and temperatures plummet - Tens of thousands in the UK have been made homeless since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic despite an ostensible government ban on tenant evictions. Since April this year, only eight months ago, over 46,000 people have been thrown out on the streets and another 45,000 left facing the same fate. These devastating figures were revealed by the Guardian through a Freedom of Information request. Responses from 204 local councils showed that 36,359 people had been threatened with homelessness since the pandemic started, 6,184 people had received Section 21 eviction notices, and a further 46,894 people had already been made homeless. A Section 21 allow landlords to remove tenants with two months' notice once their fixed-term contract has ended, without giving a reason. During the first pandemic lockdown in March, Boris Johnson’s Tory government falsely claimed it had eradicated rough sleeping through its “Everyone in” scheme. Even this limited measure minimised to a degree the risk of contracting coronavirus and saved an estimated 266 lives, according to a recent study in The Lancet medical magazine. But thousands of newly homeless have been created since then.  Writing in the Independent, London GP Tom Gardiner points out how “Winter night shelters normally provide a vital lifeline for rough sleepers, but the risk of coronavirus transmission in these communal areas is just too high, despite the best efforts of staff to make them Covid secure.” The doctor referred to figures from a study in New York which showed the mortality rate from COVID-19 for those staying in shelters was 61 percent higher than the rate among the general population. Homeless charities are demanding that the government relaunch the “Everyone in” scheme and halt all plans to deport foreign-born rough sleepers. By some estimations as many as half of London’s rough sleepers are migrant workers. New post-Brexit immigration measures announced last month mean that officials can refuse a person permission to stay in the UK if they believe they have been sleeping rough. A number of housing charities including Shelter, St Mungo’s, Crisis and Homeless Link believe such moves will drive workers into modern slavery-style exploitation in order to avoid being rendered homeless and deported forthwith. These organisations are demanding ministers reopen hotels to rough sleepers as winter approaches. Epidemiologists have warned that failure to take action by the government will kill hundreds of those sleeping rough.

Assange’s life in danger as major COVID-19 outbreak hits Belmarsh Prison - Reports from Julian Assange’s closest relatives have confirmed that the British state is playing Russian roulette with the imprisoned WikiLeaks founder’s life. The authorities are exposing him to the danger of COVID-19 infection even though leading medical experts have warned that he would be at a high risk of succumbing to the virus as a result of a chronic lung condition, and a host of other medical issues. Last week, WikiLeaks announced that Assange and all other inmates in his house block at London’s Belmarsh Prison had been placed under an indefinite lockdown, triggered by the discovery of at least three COVID-19 cases. In addition to detaining prisoners in their cells 24 hours a day, Belmarsh authorities began a mass testing program. The results, as they have been reported to prisoners, show an outbreak that is out of control. This morning, Stella Moris, Assange’s partner, wrote on Twitter: “Today I’ve been told the number of people infected with #COVID on Julian’s house block is 56, including staff.” The breakdown of cases, between inmates and staff, remains unclear, but a previous post by Moris yesterday indicated that the vast majority of infections were among prisoners. Moris noted that there are fewer than 200 inmates in House Block One, indicating an infection rate of more than 25 percent. If the cases are confined to Assange’s wing, where there are just 70 inmates, the proportion of infected prisoners could be as high as 70 percent. The figures suggest widespread transmission within the block. Throughout the pandemic, prisons have acted as virtual incubators of the virus. The inherent risks of a large population in continuous close confinement have been compounded by overcrowding, poor ventilation, the rundown state of the penitentiaries and the failure of the authorities to take any but the most minimal precautions against COVID-19. The outbreak in Belmarsh coincides with a major increase in cases across the British prison system. Official figures from the Ministry of Justice revealed more than 600 infections from the end of September to the end of October. Since March, there have been some 1,600 confirmed cases and at least 32 deaths. In addition to the willful negligence of exposing tens of thousands of prisoners, most of them poor and working class, to a potentially deadly virus, there is a specific political criminality in the prison’s treatment of Assange. He is being detained in a maximum-security prison, despite the fact that he has not been convicted of any offense. Assange’s detention is solely to facilitate proceedings from his extradition to the US, where the WikiLeaks founder faces 17 Espionage Act charges and 175-years imprisonment, for publishing true and newsworthy documents exposing war crimes, human rights abuses and political intrigues affecting millions of people.

Brexit: Decisions -- Yves Smith -- It would be easy to miss that the Brexit trade deal negotiations have entered what was supposed to be a do-or-die week, with Boris Johnson to speak directly with EU Commission chief von den Leyden. And as we’ll explain, the process has gone full circle. As we forecast back in 2018, “die,” as in no-deal, remains higher odds than conventional wisdom would have you believe.But to the state of play first. Consistent with an account from RTE’s Tony Connelly last week, the EU is prepared to let the negotiations go down to the very wire. From Politico’s European report yesterday:  The European Parliament is preparing for an extra plenary session between Christmas and New Year’s Eve to give its consent to a possible post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K., according to several EU officials and diplomats. It is likely to be held on December 28, to give EU governments the opportunity to have the very last say, as foreseen by the bloc’s procedures, before the end of the U.K.’s Brexit transition period on December 31.   MEPs will be ready to vote on a potential agreement with the U.K. “at any time,” an official told Playbook. The extra session is “unavoidable” in case there is a deal to vote on, said another. Some relevant MEPs have said they want to thoroughly study any deal and won’t be pressured into rubber-stamping it. But there’s a broadly shared view among Parliament’s political leadership, according to officials from several groups, that it won’t be a parliamentary recess that pushes the U.K. and EU into the abyss of no deal.Barnier’s latest comment signals a lack of progress: And in case you wondered, an extension isn’t an option: Needless to say, the EU stance also confirms the views of David and PlutoniumKun that the EU would not be the one to put an end to negotiations (even though the UK press would manage to find a way to do in the event of a no-deal regardless). The day before this plan was leaked, Richard North spilled some pixels on what the ratification process would/should be, assuming a deal. The implication is the EU is willing to go very fudgy on process, and risk having a roadblock thrown by a holdout, as the Wallonia did with the Canadian trade pact in 2016. The assumption clearly is any problems could be sorted out, presumably via a combination of pressure and bribes.  The propensity of most commentators is to project Anglo business-world assumptions onto this process: “Of course there will be an agreement. The stakes are too high not to.” But they said the same thing about Greece in its 2015 bailout negotiations and there was no deal by the deadline of the end of June. . Food shortages were starting at the wholesale level when the Greek government capitulated weeks later and accepted worse terms than were previously on offer. Let us not forget that the UK’s choices are now between a very skimpy deal, which would presumably include no tariffs and no quotas, but not much else. Even in that scenario, there would still be a great deal of economic disruption because the UK would still be subject to “non-tariff trade barriers,” as in other border frictions, like documentation requirements, VAT reporting/deposits, and for food products, physiosanitary checks.