week ending Nov 7

 The Fed Appears to Have Put Its Finger on the Scale for Donald Trump on Friday -  Pam Martens - The U.S. stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lost 1,833.97 points last week. The Dow was down every day except Thursday, when it eked out a gain of 139.16. The market was reacting to the following bad news: soaring cases of COVID-19 in the U.S.; a reemergence of the virus in Europe causing business shutdowns there; the failure of the U.S. Congress to pass a new stimulus bill; and a sharply lower price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), domestic crude oil – which signals a further slowdown in economic activity. (At 7 a.m. this morning, WTI was down further, with a $34 handle.)The stock market’s losses would have likely been greater last week were it not for an intervention staged by the Federal Reserve at 11:00 a.m. on Friday. Here’s what happened and why Americans should be deeply concerned.The 200-day moving average on the Dow is watched by market technicians as an indicator of where the Dow is heading going forward. By 10:58 a.m. on Friday, the Dow had lost 502 points on the day and was trading at 26,156.45, below its 200-day moving average of 26,200.50.A break like that would typically escalate selling in the Dow as computer algorithms detect the break in the moving average and trigger sell orders.But at 11:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve stepped into the action by issuing a press releasethat gave an upbeat signal to the market. Since all of the Fed’s jawboning on the need for a new stimulus plan from Congress had failed to get legislation passed, the Fed’s press release indicated it was issuing its own version of a stimulus boost for small business. The Fed announced that its Main Street lending programs would be lowered from the current $250,000 minimum loan size to $100,000 – thus making many more small businesses eligible. The Fed’s news printed at the Reuters wire service at 11:07 a.m. and the market turned up. By the close of trading on Friday, the Dow had erased most of its earlier losses, closing down just -157.51. In addition to the fact that the Fed’s announcement came within minutes of the Dow dropping below its 200-day moving average, there are other noteworthy aspects to the Fed’s action.  First, it has been the longstanding policy of the Fed to announce market-moving information before the market opens or after it closes. The major exception is the longstanding policy of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the Fed to issue its statement at 2:00 p.m. on the second day of FOMC meetings, which occur every six weeks. The Fed’s intervention on Friday with an unanticipated policy change just as the market broke through a key technical indicator, and just three business days before a hotly-contested presidential election, sends the troubling signal that the Fed is putting its finger on the scale for the incumbent president, Donald Trump. Trump has linked himself to a rising stock market like no other president in history. He tweets about it and he campaigns about it. Even when Trump was in the hospital in early October with COVID-19, he sent out a Tweet stating: “…remember that the Stock Market is getting ready to break its all time high.” It wouldn’t make the current president look too good if the market crashed while he’s still in control of the U.S. economy. But it’s not the job of the Fed to make Trump’s market prognostications a reality. The Fed is supposed to remain fiercely independent from politics and politicians so that Americans can trust that it is setting monetary policy on behalf of the American people. Jerome Powell, the current Fed Chairman, has failed miserably in that regard.

 Fed Turns Attention to Asset Purchases After Spelling Out Low-Rate Pledges – WSJ -- Federal Reserve officials at their meeting in September reinforced Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that they weren’t even “thinking about thinking about raising interest rates.” By contrast, they offered little to guide expectations around their monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage securities. Officials aren’t preparing to announce any changes after their two-day policy meeting ends Thursday but could begin reviewing contingency plans for possible refinements, according tointerviews and recent public statements.Recent surveys show a range of opinions about how long investors and economists expect the Fed to continue to buy assets at the current pace.More than half of large investment firms surveyed by the New York Fed in September expected the central bank to continue the current pace of bond buying into the first half of 2022. A separate survey of the banks that serve as the Fed’s counterparties on Wall Street shows those firms think the purchases could slow next year.Fed officials are unlikely to trim those purchases so long as the coronavirus pandemic is menacing the U.S. economy. This means they are likely to focus their discussions on how to provide more stimulus, if they decide it is needed, by shifting the composition of these purchases toward longer-dated Treasurys.They took one step in this direction in September by clarifying that these purchases were being conducted to support the economic recovery, after being initiated in March to quell market dysfunction.Fed policy in the past decade has been guided by the theory that holding long-term securities stimulates financial markets and the economy by holding down long-term interest rates. That is thought to drive investors into riskier assets like stocks and corporate bonds and encourage business investment and consumer spending. Holding short-term securities, this theory holds, provides little stimulus.The idea was at the core of former Chairman Ben Bernanke’s strategy to move the Fed’s holdings heavily into long-term Treasury bonds after the 2008 financial crisis. Fed estimates suggest the strategy lowered long-term interest rates by a full percentage point, making it less costly for millions of homeowners, car buyers, corporations and governments to borrow. Right now, the Fed is buying $80 billion in Treasurys a month and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities, net of redemptions. This is larger than the $85 billion in monthly purchases during the Fed’s largest bond-buying program after the 2008 crisis—the third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, between 2012 and 2014.

FOMC Statement: No Change  - Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.  FOMC Statement: The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.  The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.  The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.  The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.  In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

'We will continue to do our jobs,' Fed's Powell vows as election drags on— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explained the central bank's thinking behind changes to its middle-market relief loan program, while attempting to assure the markets that the Fed's mission is undeterred during a time of political uncertainty. Powell's press conference Thursday, corresponding with a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, came days after the Fed announced it was cutting the minimum loan size to $100,000 for businesses in the Main Street Lending Program. The change, intended to boost participation in the coronavirus relief program, came despite Powell's earlier resistance to the reduction. "We try to be responsive — we want qualifying businesses to be able to borrow, and we'll see how much demand will come,” he said. Powell was also asked about any potential concerns about market turmoil or economic instability resulting from uncertainty about the presidential election. The election, held Tuesday, still has no winner, and potential legal challenges by the Trump administration to vote-counting efforts in key states have been accompanied by protests from supporters of both President Trump and Joe Biden. While declining to weigh in on the election, Powell said agencies like the Fed should remain focused on efforts to support the economy, which is still grappling with the coronavirus pandemic.“I’m very reluctant as you will imagine to comment on the election directly, indirectly, at all, other than just to say that it’s a good time to take a step back and let the institutions of our democracy do their jobs," he said. "So, at the Fed here we will, as always, continue to do our jobs, everyday we’ll continue to serve the American people using our tools to support the economy during this difficult time.” As he has many times, Powell called for additional fiscal stimulus to ease the economic impact of COVID-19. Although Powell declined to say what elements of fiscal stimulus Congress should prioritize when considering a package, he emphasized that “a whole of government approach” with adequate fiscal policy, monetary policy and health care policy would lead to a swifter recovery. “I think we'll have a stronger recovery if we can just get at least some more fiscal support when it's appropriate,” he said. “Fiscal policy can do what we can’t, which is to replace lost incomes for people who are out of work through no fault of their own.” But the Fed is not out of ammunition, Powell said, adding that the central bank can support financial stability through its emergency lending programs and can support demand through its interest rate policy and asset purchases. “I think that we are strongly committed to using these powerful tools that we have to support the economy during this difficult time for as long as needed, and no one should have any doubt about that,” he said. Powell did not say if the Fed was currently in talks with the Treasury Department to extend the Dec. 31 sunset date approaching for most of the central bank's emergency lending facilities. “We do think that the facilities have generally served their purpose as well, particularly in supporting the flow of credit [and] particularly acting as backstops to private markets, so overall we think that the programs that have gone well,” he said. However, the Main Street Lending Program, through which the Fed buys participation in loans made by banks to midsize firms, has struggled to attract interest. Among the several changes to then program announced last week, the minimum loan size was cut by more than half from $250,000 to make the program more available to smaller businesses. Businesses with up to 15,000 employees or up to $5 billion in annual revenue can now get loans of at least $100,000 through the $600 billion program. Powell was previously resistant to making such a change, telling Congress in September that “the current facility would not work for much smaller loans."

Podcast A Fed digital currency looks inevitable. So do the problems -- Digital payments have become a part of everyday life all over the world in the last 10-15 years, and its advantages over paper money are considerable. In fact, most of the money I ever come into contact with is digital — it’s numbers on a screen or on a receipt. But these are payments through intermediaries, so when I buy something with my credit card or Venmo my roommates for utilities, what’s really happening is I’m promising to make a payment later with a settlement transaction. But the next frontier in payments is a fully digital dollar — one that cuts out the middleman and settles payments almost instantly. And there’s a widely-held expectation that it’s only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve starts issuing its own digital currency. A project like that would be unbelievably ambitious, but it could also have dramatic, positive implications for income inequality, payments modernization and security. It also raises important questions about privacy, surveillance and technology. And even if it is possible to develop a cashless economy, is it a good idea? For American Banker, I’m Hannah Lang, and this is Bankshot, a podcast about banks, finance, and the world we live in. Below is an edited transcript of the podcast:

 Early Q4 GDP Forecasts ---From Merrill Lynch: We expect growth to slow to 3% qoq saar in 4Q amid the stimulus stalemate. [Oct 30 estimate]  From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.5%. [Nov 3 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2020:Q4. [Oct 30 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2020 is 3.4 percent on November 2, up from 2.2 percent on October 30. [Nov 2 estimate]I t is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019.The following graph illustrates this decline.

America’s Economy Faces a Winter Chill – WSJ -  Covid cases are rising, cold weather is on its way and, for many American households and small businesses, financial resources are running out. The next few months could be tough.While the economy still isn’t close to a full recovery from the pandemic, it has rebounded impressively. Last Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew 7.4% in the third quarter from the prior quarter, and economists expect that the October employment report, due Friday, will show another month of job gains. The growing danger, however, is that the country is facing a set of challenges that could set it back on its heels. To begin with, there is the challenge that never left: Covid. After a period during the summer that suggested the virus might be coming under some semblance of control, it is extending its grip once again. The seven-day average of new cases in the U.S. has lately been hitting new highs, and the danger is that the combination of colder weather and family gatherings during the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays will send cases higher still. As a result, more state and local officials could dial restrictions back up again, while many consumers might ratchet up their wariness. Rising Covid cases aren’t the only problem colder weather will bring. An analysis by small-business payroll and benefits provider Gusto finds that areas with average November temperatures below 50 degrees account for 45% of private-sector employment, and some of those jobs could soon be at risk. Restaurants all over have adapted to the pandemic by expanding outdoor dining, helping them recover some of their lost sales and hire back employees. In September, there were 3.8 million more people working at food services and drinking places than in April, according to the Labor Department, accounting for about a third of the recovery in the job market. But in most parts of the country, not many people will be keen to dine al fresco in the cold. That raises the risk that more restaurants will go under and more restaurant workers will lose their jobs. Other businesses, including retailers that made adjustments such as moving merchandise to the sidewalk, also could face cold-weather challenges. But the more-pressing problem for many small businesses, in particular, is that they are running out of time. Much of the money they received from the federal government earlier this year through the $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program has by now been exhausted. The patience of landlords, who typically have debt to service, is wearing thin. Many households are also running out of rope. Goldman Sachs economists note that surveys show 7% of households with mortgages and 41% with student loans were either making reduced payments or skipping them entirely at the start of this quarter. Student-loan forbearance under the $2 trillion stimulus plan passed last spring, and since extended by an executive order, expires at the end of December. Mortgage forbearance is set to expire either 180 or 360 days after being granted. Many renters are in especially difficult straits. In a recent Census Bureau survey, 10% said they had no confidence in their ability to make their next rent payment.Only when the Covid crisis ends will many businesses and households be pulled back from the brink.

Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of Nov 1st.  The seven day average is down 63% from last year (37% of last year). There has been a slow increase from the bottom. The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 31, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that dining is generally turning down in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - but holding up in the southern states. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 92th.  Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $150 million per week in the early Fall).This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 24th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.7% year-over-year. This suggests no improvement over the last 6 weeks. So far there has been little business travel pickup that usually happens in the Fall. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 23rd, gasoline supplied was off about 12.7% YoY (about 87.3% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities."  There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through October 31st for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 54% of the January level. It is at 44% in Chicago, and 57% in Houston - and declining slightly recently. Note: This graph is from Kastle, and the data isn't available online to do a 7-day average. Here is some interesting data from Kastle Systems on office occupancy. This is just a screen shot. Here is the interactive data. This data is through October 28th. Currently Office Occupancy is 27% of normal, with a low of 15% in San Francisco, and a high of 41% in Dallas. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This data is through Friday, October 30th.

Business Cycle Indicators, November 6 - Menzie Chinn - Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the employment decelerates. Here’s the current outlook, using  some key indicators noted by theNBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), Bloomberg consensus for industrial production as of 11/6 (light red square), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (11/2 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.  With this employment gain (at 637K above the Bloomberg consensus of 600K), NFP remains 6.6% below the NBER peak at 2020M02 (6.8% in log terms).

Stop the Uncertainty! - Menzie Chinn - The economic policy uncertainty, that is (With apologies to Susan Powter). Regardless of where you are on the econo-political spectrum, you should want economic policy uncertainty to be reduced. Remember all those conservative voices in the post-Global Financial Crisis saying policy uncertainty was slowing the economic recovery? Well, today is an opportunity to return considered, coherent, economic policymaking and trade negotiations.First, here’re two indices of policy uncertainty — US news based and the US trade component, both from Baker, Bloom and Davis.Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty index – news based (blue, left scale), and US Trade Policy Uncertainty categorical component index (tan, right scale). NBER recession dates denoted by light gray shading; most recent recession assumed to end April 2020. Orange denotes Trump administration; orange dashed line indicates election. Source. Policyuncertainty.com, accessed 11/3/2020. Over the Trump administration, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic period, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) was 31% higher (log terms) than it was during the period 2006 onward. US Trade Policy Uncertainty was 210% higher.One effect of a reduced level of policy uncertainty would be a weaker dollar (given the dollar’s safe haven status); see this post for a statistically based explanation. Figure 2: US Economic Policy Uncertainty index – news based (blue, left scale), and real value of US dollar against broad basket of currencies  (red, right log scale). NBER recession dates denoted by light gray shading; most recent recession assumed to end April 2020. Orange denotes Trump administration; orange dashed line indicates election. Source. Policyuncertainty.com, Federal Reserve Board vis FRED, accessed 11/3/2020.Obviously, not all policy uncertainty would disappear with a Trump eviction, especially if the Congress remains divided with the Senate in Republican hands. However, it is hard for me to see how policy uncertainty could be further elevated — or even remain at similar levels — relative to what we’ve seen over the past four years.Also… stop the policy insanity!

 Treasury Dials Back Estimates for U.S. Borrowing as Stimulus Talks Stall – WSJ  - The Treasury Department on Monday dialed back its estimates for government borrowing through the end of the year as negotiations over another large fiscal stimulus bill remain stalled. The Treasury estimated the government would borrow $617 billion from October through December, down from its $1.216 trillion estimate in early August. Senior Treasury officials said they continue to assume that Congress eventually will pass another economic-relief package with about $1 trillion in new spending—the same assumption they made in August—but that much of that borrowing would likely be pushed back to early 2021. Officials estimated net marketable borrowing from January through March would total $1.127 trillion. Meanwhile, borrowing from July through September was much less than expected—$454 billion, compared with $947 billion projected in August. All told, the government expects to issue about $1.1 trillion less in new debt during the second half of the year than anticipated in August. A senior Treasury official emphasized that estimates were subject to revision, given the high uncertainty over the size, shape and timing of another relief bill. After months of starting and stopping, talks between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) over a roughly $2 trillion stimulus deal have stalled. The two sides remain far apart on the price tag and policy issues, including aid for states and cities and liability protections for businesses. Congress has authorized roughly $3.6 trillion in new spending since March to help combat the impacts of the pandemic, which brought the U.S. economy to a standstill earlier this year, triggering widespread business closures and layoffs. The combination of increased spending and weaker revenues has sent deficits soaring, prompting record borrowing that Republicans argue is unsustainable. Senate Republicans have resisted calls for another major economic-aid bill and instead have backed a $500 billion measure with targeted support for hard-hit industries.

 The GOP's debt boogieman is hurting families and derailing our recovery - Rep John Yarmuth - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. who famously saw no “urgency” for relief, has declared that there would be no vote on a relief package for the American people during the lame duck session of Congress.As a result, coronavirus cases will continue to break daily records, people will die, small businesses will close, workers will be laid off, Americans will go hungry, families will be evicted — more pain, more suffering and more loss.American families cannot wait any longer — and they never should have had to. The pieces were there: House Democrats passed a compromise version of the Heroes Act, a bill with a lower price tag to appease congressional Republicans but still packed with the critical investments we desperately need. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) were hammering out details. The president called for a deal.So why did it fall apart? Because the needs of the American people simply aren’t on Republicans’ radar. With their full attention on the booming stock market and their sagging poll numbers, the administration and its allies didn’t fail to implement a national pandemic strategy — they refused. It didn’t address their priorities.The same is true about their opposition to financial relief.Debt and deficits are their boogiemen, but at best, they’re deeply flawed economic arguments, and at worst, deliberate deceptions to excuse turning their backs on the American people.Republicans often argue that government should be run like a business. But only asking about cost is a surefire recipe to run a business, and a country, into the ground. Questions of cost must come after questions of benefit, as well as an assessment of the price of not making an investment. For a restauranteur, borrowing $100,000 for a prime, new location is much different than for a new Humvee. But when it comes to addressing the needs of the American people, Republicans want you to believe shrewd investments and frivolous spending are the same.On the other hand, Republicans could not have cared less about deficits when they enacted the Trump administration’s crown jewel, the 2017 tax law, which sent revenue plummeting to record lows, and increased deficits by at least $1.9 trillion over 10 years. What kind of business willfully goes into debt in order to slash revenue?Still, their giant handout to billionaires wasn’t reckless because of the debt, but because the massive price tag offered no benefit to working families, infrastructure, future generations, security, or even the president’s illusive health care plan. It was just waste. Another gas-guzzling Humvee taking up space in the garage while millions of American families continued to go without. As chairman of the Budget Committee, I’ve emphasized that we need a much more evidence-based, contemporary understanding of debt, and I’m far from alone. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently warned that the danger we face today is investing too little, not too much, and experts across the ideological spectrum agree that we have ample fiscal capacity to provide urgently needed economic support to our communities, foster an inclusive recovery, and rebuild a stronger economy than what we had before. In fact, the failure to invest now to achieve these goals poses amore severe risk to our economic and budget outlooks than the large amounts we must spend to get there.There is simply no sound economic reason not to provide the relief that is needed and to do it quickly. The reality is that with interest rates andinflation even lower today than before the pandemic, CBO projects we will spend less on debt service over the decade than it projected before the pandemic.

As the World Watches US Election, the Appeal of America is Diminished - A US presidential election always draws intense worldwide interest, in part due to the spectacle, but also because the leadership of the most powerful country in the world has a significant bearing on international affairs. It is also a moment of immense cultural power which magnifies America’s global significance.While political leaders and policy experts will watch the election through the prism of their strategic interests, most of the world will watch with a more nebulous sense that the fate of the world is somehow at stake. For better or worse, around the globe people tend to view the US through the figure of its president. This is certainly the case with Donald Trump, whose global celebrity has amplified feelings about the US.The 2020 election symbolically aligns with a paradigm shift in the world order, a disassembling of western and more particularly American dominance. What is at stake here is the idea of the US as the world’s leading nation, an idea that forcefully shaped “the American Century” and is now fast dissolving.Global perceptions of the US are regularly monitored by major polling organisations such as the Pew Research Center and Gallup. There are also myriad regional and national polls seeking information on the US’s reputation and influence. By almost all quantitative measures the US’s global standing has plummeted since the election of Trump and this downward spiral is more often than not associated with his leadership.A Pew study in September 2020 noted that the number of countries with a favourable view of the US is “as low as it has been at any point since the Center began polling on this topic nearly two decades ago.” The survey showed ratings of “confidence in the US president” ranging from a low of 9% in Belgium to a high of 25% in Japan. Several international polls link the decline in confidence in American leadership to Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, both nationally and internationally. Measuring such perceptions quantitatively has much room for error, but it’s hard to deny that the scale and consistency of these polls are indicators of the US’s maligned and depleted image and influence in the world today. The first presidential debate provoked shock and dismay in international news media. It was described as a “chaotic and virulent spectacle” (El Pais in Spain), as “mudwrestling” (The Times of India), as “a joke, a low point, a shame for the country”(Der Spiegel in Germany), as a “national humiliation for America” (The Guardian in the UK), and as evidence of the “recession of US influence, national power” (Global Times in China). Writing in the Irish Times in April, Fintan O’Toole observed:It is hard not to feel sorry for Americans … The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful.  Simon Kuper in the Financial Times made a similar observation in October, writing that “European attitudes to Americans are shifting from envy to compassion.”

 Pelosi says House is prepared to decide president if election results are disputed - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told NPR on Monday that Congress is prepared to decide the presidential election if the results are disputed. “We understand what the law is and the preeminence of the role of Congress and specifically the House of Representatives when it comes to counting the votes,” Pelosi said in an interview with the public radio station. Should the presidential election not present a clear winner by electoral vote, then it is up to the House to choose the next president. “We’re ready. We’re prepared. We’ve been ready for a while because we see this irresponsibility of the president, his disrespect for the Constitution, for our democracy and for the integrity of our elections. So we’re ready for him,” Pelosi said. A report in Axios on Sunday indicated that President Trump was planning to declare victory on election night should results show him in the lead. The president disputed that report to reporters on Monday but continued to criticize some states being allowed to count ballots beyond Election Day. "I think it’s a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. I think it’s a terrible thing when people or states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over because it can only lead to one thing," Trump said. Trump has repeatedly called into question the validity of mail-in ballots compared with absentee ballots and in-person voting. His campaign and other Republicans have disputed the notion of some states being allowed to count ballots received after Election Day. When asked about the Axios report, Democratic nominee Joe Biden said, "My response is the president is not going to steal this election."

 2020 election: Trump sues over Michigan, Pennsylvania ballots -- President Donald Trump's campaign said Wednesday that it filed suits to halt the counting of ballots in Michigan and Pennsylvania, as the campaign demanded increased access to observe the tallying process at numerous locations in those battleground states. The states have a combined 36 Electoral College voters at stake. The Trump campaign said that its in Michigan lawsuit demands that the campaign be allowed to "review those ballots" ... "which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access." In Pennsylvania, the campaign said it is moving to intervene in an existing Supreme Court case related to that state's extension of its mail-in ballot receipt deadline. Separately, the campaign is filing two legal actions: one aimed at stopping what the campaign called the "hiding" by Democratic officials of "ballot counting and processing from our Republican poll observers," the other which seeks to undo an order extending the deadline for absentee and mail-in voters to provide missing proof of identification. As the actions were announced, Trump's inner circle tried to prematurely and falsely claim victory for the president in Pennsylvania even as the count remained incomplete there. The announcements comes as the Republican incumbent faces an ultra-tight race against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and in two other battlegrounds, Georgia and Nevada. At the time the suits were announced, NBC News was reporting that Biden was leading Trump by 49.5% of the votes cast in Michigan, compared to 48.8% percent for Trump, a margin of fewer than 38,000 votes. A total of 94% of the ballots in the state had been counted so far. There are 16 Electoral College votes up for grabs in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, where 20 Electoral College votes are at stake, Trump was leading by 3,099,477 votes, or 52.3%, compared to 2,745,468 votes, or 46.4% for Biden. A total of 83% of the expected votes had been tallied in Pennsylvania, which does not expect to have a final result for days. 

 Trump threatens to sue his way to victory amid millions of uncounted votes - With millions of votes waiting to be counted in the US presidential election, Donald Trump has effectively threatened to sue his way to re-election. As of Wednesday evening, the president and his campaign had promised to bring the election to the supreme court, sued to halt vote-counting in threebattleground states and requested a recount in another.But at this moment, there is no evidence the campaign’s legal challenges will have a bearing on the election result under the law. Instead, the concern is how litigation plays in the court of public opinion, where the suggestion of fraud in one battleground state could cast doubt on the whole election.Vanita Gupta, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, said Americans should be confident their votes will be counted, but warned of Trump’s history of voting disinformation “The more desperate he may become, the more baseless allegations there are about the ways in which states count ballots, about our democratic process and his own authority over this process,” Gupta said.  Post-election litigation is normal. Lawsuits are always filed on election day and the days after in response to issues such as equipment malfunctions, printing errors and polls not opening on time. Usually, they receive little attention. This year, they are under more intense scrutiny because the president has spent the year making frequent, baseless claims about election fraud.For one of these routine cases to affect the outcome of the election, the ballots being contested would need to be both (a) big enough in number to determine the state’s result (for example, a suit which concerns 50,000 votes in a state a candidate won by 30,000 votes) and (b) in a state decisive for the election result.As of Wednesday evening, election law experts said none of the lawsuits filed appeared to meet both these qualifications. “These case don’t seem to be very strong, they also don’t seem to be significant as a matter of votes,” said Paul Smith, vice-president for litigation and strategy at the Campaign Legal Center.That could change as counting continues.For now, the more significant cause for alarm is the Trump campaign’s actions on Wednesday as election results turned in Biden’s favor. Instead of waiting for a media outlet to call Pennsylvania, as is traditional, the campaign said Trump had won it despite the fact that 1 million votes were still waiting to be counted. The campaign also announced it was suing to halt vote-counting in Michigan – which the Associated Press called for Biden, Pennsylvania and Georgia and that it would request a recount in Wisconsin, which the AP also called for Biden.

Trump falsely claims “fraud” as vote counting erases his leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania - In an appearance on national television Thursday, President Donald Trump denounced what he falsely called “fraud” as the basis of his impending defeat in the 2020 presidential election. He was reacting to his plummeting leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania as mail ballots, predominantly from Democratic voters, were being counted in both states, despite lawsuits brought by the Trump campaign. Trump’s televised appearance made clear that, for the first time since the ritual of presidential concessions was established in 1896, the defeated candidate is refusing to concede, introducing into the next two and a half months an element of extreme crisis. Trump’s combative response to his impending defeat contrasts with the stance taken by the Democrats in 2016, when president Barack Obama insisted that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton concede the very evening of the election even though she had a massive lead in the popular vote. While Trump at present lacks the political support to overturn the results of the election, he is laying the basis for a campaign to present himself as the victim of a “stab in the back.” This narrative will be used by himself and members of his family to perpetuate the development of a fascistic movement, which will become a permanent and significant presence in American politics. The president took the podium in the White House Briefing Room at 6:45 p.m., in the midst of the network evening news broadcasts, but ABC, NBC, and CBS all cut away from his remarks as he began to voice a series of blatantly false and self-contradictory claims about the process of vote counting in the five states where results in the presidential voting remain in question. The decision of the three networks—all owned by giant media corporations—to cut away from a presidential appearance was unprecedented. It indicated that major sections of corporate America have lost confidence in Trump, and fear that his attempt to defy an electoral verdict will provoke massive popular opposition and destabilize the United States politically.

 Trump prepares to launch a second term early, even without winning -  President Donald Trump has struggled to convince the country he already won the election. So he’s just going to do the next best thing: Act like he’s starting his second term early.Trump and his aides have settled on a plan for him to take full advantage of his existing perch at the White House to look as presidential as possible, according to three people briefed on the strategy. He may fire a few Cabinet members and top aides, including FBI Director Christopher Wray and Defense Secretary Mark Esper. He could sign a slew of base-pleasing executive orders. He might even resume his travel schedule. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is planning to mount even more legal challenges and cast evidence-deficient aspersions on the integrity of ballots.The president is frustrated by what he views as unfair election results in states like Arizona, and is steaming at the possibility of losing to a candidate he considers “weak,” Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The irritation is compounded by Biden’s moves to launch his presidential transition operation and signal confidence about ultimate victory in key states such as Arizona and Nevada, which have him close to clinching the presidential race.Trump’s team “will flatly say they are wrong if the AP calls the race for Biden,” said former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a longtime Trump ally.“We were at the White House until 3 a.m. on election night,” he added. “I was punchy physically, but I also could not get my head around what is going on until today. The president is going through something similar.”Yet after two days of staying out of the public’s view, stewing over media coverage and feeling irritated with a handful of top advisers, Trump and his team have settled on the approach of barreling toward a second term — even if, during the final months of his campaign, Trump repeatedly failed to lay out any agenda for another four years.Thursday night, Trump made his first public appearance since election night, expanding on the baseless claims of election fraud he has been spouting on Twitter. He made no mention of any governing moves, but did vow to fight the election results in court all the way to the Supreme Court — a proposition seen by most legal experts as unlikely and detached from the realities of a state-by-state electoral system."It’s going to end up perhaps at the highest court in the land, we’ll see," Trump said, before leaving without taking questions.

"We'll Get Fu*king Torn Apart Again In 2022": Democrats Livid In Leaked Caucus Call After Crushing Election Losses – House Democrats were livid during a Thursday caucus call after the so-called 'blue wave' they were promised by pollster evaporated, and they lost several seats, according to leaked excerpts. According to AP's Erica Werner, Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger was reportedly the most vocal - reportedly complaining that "we lost races we shouldn’t have lost. Defund police almost cost me my race because of an attack ad. Don’t say socialism ever again," yelling that the party needs to "get back to basics."House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly interjected - saying that they "won the House and the presidency."According to The Hill, centrist Democrats are now talking about throwing their support behind a challenger to Pelosi, with two prominent Democrats telling the outlet that they are reaching out to their colleagues about backing Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to take Pelosi's place."He’s the only one prepared and positioned" to become speaker, one of them said. " He bridges moderates and progressives better than anyone. And most importantly, he’s not Nancy Pelosi."Jeffries immediately 'shot down' the idea, saying that he's focused on keeping his spot as one of Pelosi's top lieutenants.Heading into the polls, Pelosi enjoyed the overwhelming support of her caucus — facing no threat of a Speakership challenge — and Democratic leaders were eyeing big gains to their majority, with some estimates in the double digits.But the early returns revealed a different reality: Not only did Democrats lose a number of their most vulnerable members, they had not picked off a single Republican incumbent heading into Wednesday evening.The results immediately emboldened Republican leaders, who accused Pelosi and her party of being out of touch with the country. And Democrats on and off of Capitol Hill were left licking their wounds and questioning the strategic decisions that guided their party's message throughout the campaign.“Pelosi needed to hammer Trump but instead she chose to let him slide,” said one former senior Democratic aide. “Last night should have been a bloodbath for Republicans.” -The HillPerhaps Democrats should have mentioned their crowning achievement - Trump's impeachment - even once during the election. Instead they mysteriously swept it under the rug.

Google Searches For "Liquor Store Near Me" Hits All-Time High Amid Election Anxiety   On Tuesday night, Google Trends' Twitter account published a chart showing a parabolic move of internet searches for liquor stores as Americans sought to alleviate their election anxiety in a race that could take days for official election results to materialize. Many of the searches were in Deleware, Maryland, Tennesse, Georgia, and Colorado. Other related searches included "liquor store open near me," "liquor store open," "liquor stores near me," and "liquor stores" were all in breakout territory.  As shown below, "liquor store near me" hit an all-time high Tuesday night.

Some Americans dance, others wield guns at vote-tallying sites as Biden's lead solidifies - (Reuters) - Supporters of Joe Biden danced in the streets outside a ballot-counting center in Philadelphia on Friday as the steadily growing vote tallies showed the Democratic former vice president could soon be declared winner of the U.S. presidential election. In Detroit, several hundred supporters of President Donald Trump, some carrying their guns, raised premature chants of “We won!” outside a counting center, despite it looking increasingly unlikely, though not impossible, that this would prove true. Philadelphia appeared to relish its turn as the center of the nation’s attention, even if it was earned only by the relative slowness of its vote counting as the biggest city in the closely fought state of Pennsylvania. It is one of a few pivotal states where the outcome of Tuesday’s election was still too close to call, and Philadelphians delighted in parading past the assembled news cameras playing violins and trombones or dressed up in election-themed costumes. Sean Truppo, a 37-year-old social studies teacher, said he lit fireworks upon awaking to the news that Biden had overtaken Trump, a Republican, in the state’s count before putting his 4-year-old daughter in a stroller to join the growing crowds outside the Philadelphia Convention Center. “My daughter was born under Trump and I wanted her to witness the end of Trump,” he said. Biden has a 253 to 214 lead in the state-by-state Electoral College vote that determines the winner, according to Edison Research. Winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would give Biden the 270 he needs to secure the presidency. He has already won the popular vote by some 4 million votes. The nation has spent nearly three days staring at the slowly updating vote tallies on the news, or finding chores to distract themselves from the prolonged uncertainty. A few, however, have taken to the streets, with Biden supporters cheering for poll workers to “count every vote,” at times breaking into dance whenever someone turned up a Beyoncé or Missy Elliott song on loudspeakers. Some Trump supporters, taking a cue from the president himself, insisted there must be something wrong with any count that showed Biden winning, and brought their rifles and handguns with them to rallies outside counting centers in Detroit and Phoenix, Arizona. Dressed in the Trump-supporter uniform of “Make America Great Again” red baseball hats, some fell to their knees in public prayer. “It’s hard to believe that we all went to bed Tuesday night and Trump was so far ahead and now he’s behind,” George Vosca, a 72-year-old retired Illinois government employee, said after driving an hour to join a pro-Trump rally outside the Wisconsin State Capitol building in Madison. His wife, Marcia Vosca, also voted for Trump even as she acknowledged his flaws: “The thing is, he’s really a jerk,” Vosca, 64, said of Trump, her husband nodding emphatically in agreement. “But we can all relate to being a jerk.” In Detroit, a few anti-racism protesters rallying behind the Black Lives Matter slogan entered an area cordoned off by police for Trump supporters on Friday. Standing defiantly with fists in the air, Trump supporters, including armed members of militia groups, moved closer, jeering, before police intervened, leading the anti-racism protesters elsewhere.

Software 'Glitch' In Michigan Erroneously Gave 1000s Of Votes To Biden; Up To 47 Counties Compromised - Software used to tabulate votes cast in 47 Michigan counties erroneously gave 6,000 votes to Joe Biden in Anterim County, according to state GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox. "In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000 vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said 'tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote.' Since then, we have now discovered the 47 counties used the same software in the same capacity," she said, adding "Antrim County had to hand count all of the ballots, and these counties that used the software need to closely examine their results for similar discrepancies." Of note, Trump won Antrim County in 2016 with 62% of the vote vs. 33% for Hillary Clinton. One Michigan county clerk caught a glitch in tabulation software so they hand counted votes and found the glitch caused 6,000 votes to go to Biden + Democrats that were meant for Trump and Republicans. 47 MI counties used this software. All must check now! pic.twitter.com/21AXyJZDZi   Meanwhile, in Oakland County, Michigan, another computer glitch was uncovered which gave an upset win to Democrat Melanie Hartman. Once it was fixed, her win was nullified and incumbent Adam Kochenderfer was declared the winner. According to the Detroit Free Press, officials are investigating the error. Tom McMillin, a former state lawmaker from Oakland County and a member of the State Board of Education, said he noticed irregularities with the Antrim County vote totals late Tuesday, when he was checking out returns for Board of Education candidates. In some precincts, but not all, Biden and other Democratic candidates had far more votes than normal, McMillin said. "It just looked weird," he said. "Two-thirds of the townships looked really messed up."

Robocalls Told at Least 800,000 Swing State Residents to “Stay Home” on Election Day. The FBI Is Investigating. — ProPublica -- More than 800,000 people with phone numbers tied to six presidential swing states have been targeted with automated phone calls on Tuesday suggesting they remain at home on Election Day, a tactic that has alarmed voters and has drawn the attention of the FBI, documents and interviews show. All told, more than 3 million calls were made to people across the country on Tuesday, instructing them to “stay safe and stay home,” according to data and call recordings provided by the firm TelTech, which owns the RoboKiller smartphone app. One message, only a few seconds long, delivers the message in a monotone, robotic voice. Government officials and voters interpreted the messages as potential voter suppression, though it’s not clear what the intent was since the messages apparently began last December, before the coronavirus pandemic. It is also not known who was behind the cryptic messaging campaign or whether it targeted people with particular party registrations or political leanings. Nor was it clear whether the calls had any effect on voters’ willingness to go to the polls. In many states, significant numbers of people have already voted by mail, making the apparent veiled threats irrelevant. Nonetheless, the robocall campaign added to a trove of tactics that could undermine Americans’ confidence in the election, from disinformation on social media to hacking attempts that could slow vote counting. Calls like it drew pushback from state officials, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, who tweeted Tuesday afternoon: “Attempts to hinder voters from casting ballots by spreading misinformation is illegal and will not be tolerated. That’s why I am actively investigating robocalls allegedly spreading disinformation.” The available data doesn’t show how many of the callers listened to the full message. Neither the recording provided by TelTech nor those heard by voters who spoke with ProPublica mentioned specific political candidates or even the election. But the messages were so ubiquitous that they prompted complaints from voters, as well as federal law enforcement officials.  “Because it talks about safety, I thought, is this about COVID? But it doesn’t actually say anything about COVID,” said Mariah Montgomery, a Brooklyn nonprofit worker with a Los Angeles area code who received the phone call twice in one day last week. “It did seem potentially like voter disinformation or suppression, given the timing,” she said. A senior Department of Homeland Security official said Tuesday that the FBI was investigating. “Be mindful of people that are trying to intimidate you, undermine your confidence,” the official said, while cautioning that robocalls are a scourge during every election. The FBI said it was aware of the reports but declined to comment further.

Biden defeats Trump for White House, says 'time to heal' (AP) — Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States on Saturday, positioning himself to lead a nation gripped by a historic pandemic and a confluence of economic and social turmoil. His victory came after more than three days of uncertainty as election officials sorted through a surge of mail-in votes that delayed processing. Biden crossed the winning threshold of 270 Electoral College votes with a win in Pennsylvania. Trump refused to concede, threatening further legal action on ballot counting. Biden, 77, staked his candidacy less on any distinctive political ideology than on galvanizing a broad coalition of voters around the notion that Trump posed an existential threat to American democracy. The strategy proved effective, resulting in pivotal victories in Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Pennsylvania, onetime Democratic bastions that had flipped to Trump in 2016. Biden’s victory was a repudiation of Trump’s divisive leadership and the president-elect now inherits a deeply polarized nation grappling with foundational questions of racial justice and economic fairness while in the grips of a virus that has killed more than 236,000 Americans and reshaped the norms of everyday life. Biden, in a statement, declared it was time for the battered nation “to unite and to heal.” “With the campaign over, it’s time to put the anger and the harsh rhetoric behind us and come together as a nation,” he said. “There’s nothing we can’t do if we do it together.” Biden was on track to win the national popular vote by more than 4 million, a margin that could grow as ballots continue to be counted. Nonetheless, Trump was not giving up. Departing from longstanding democratic tradition and signaling a potentially turbulent transfer of power, he issued a combative statement saying his campaign would take unspecified legal actions. And he followed up with a bombastic, all-caps tweet in which he falsely declared, “I WON THE ELECTION, GOT 71,000,000 LEGAL VOTES.” Twitter immediately flagged it as misleading. Trump has pointed to delays in processing the vote in some states to allege with no evidence that there was fraud and to argue that his rival was trying to seize power — an extraordinary charge by a sitting president trying to sow doubt about a bedrock democratic process. 

Trump refuses to accept election results, says it's 'far from over' -- President Donald Trump is refusing to concede the election after NBC News and other outlets projected that Democratic nominee Joe Biden has defeated him in the race for the White House."The simple fact is this election is far from over," Trump said in a statement released just minutes after NBC projected that Biden had become president-elect."Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor," Trump claimed.Trump vowed that as soon as Monday, his team will start "prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld." Biden earlier Saturday had led Trump in NBC's tally of projected Electoral College votes, 253 to 214. The former vice president was pushed over the top when NBC projected that Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes would be awarded to him.Trump had traveled to his private golf club in Sterling, Virginia, less than two hours before the race was called for his opponent.Biden, in a statement released around noon Saturday, said he is "honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me and in Vice President-elect [Kamala] Harris.""In the face of unprecedented obstacles, a record number of Americans voted. Proving once again, that democracy beats deep in the heart of America," the president-elect said. "With the campaign over, it's time to put the anger and the harsh rhetoric behind us and come together as a nation."But the Trump campaign disputes that the campaign has come to an end. The president and his surrogates have launched lawsuits in multiple key states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, and have already signaled they plan topress for recounts in some close races.Trump himself has spread unproven allegations of electoral fraud in key states, despite repeated pushback from election officials and judges in numerous court cases. As vote tallies in crucial states appeared to be favoring Biden in the days after Election Day, Trump even demanded that states stop counting ballots. "Obviously he's not going to concede when at least 600,000 ballots are in question," Trump's attorney, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, said at a press conference in Philadelphia on Saturday, without providing evidence.

A Biden Administration Would Keep US Forces In Syria To 'Counter Russia' -According to a report from the influential London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, a senior Biden advisor met with a group of Syrians to go over what a Biden administration’s Syria policy would look like. The advisor said Biden would keep a US military presence in northeast Syria to counter Russia and keep reconstruction funds from the country unless "meaningful" political reform occurs.The US has a small occupation force in northeast Syria to control oil fields, estimated to be around 600 troops. The US soldiers have had confrontations with both Syrian and Russian forces. The advisor said Biden would maintain this military presence because it "is a deterrent to Russian and regime airstrikes."On the other side of Syria, in the northwest Idlib province, Turkey backs opposition fighters and is preventing the Syrian government from retaking the province. Idlib is mostly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formally known as al-Nusra Front, or al-Qaeda in Syria."At the same time, Biden’s approach will look for ways to strengthen the Turkish operations in Idlib, which currently protect nearly three million people from Syrian and Russian aggression," the advisor said. The US is also waging a secretive drone war in Idlib against Hurras al-Din, another al-Qaeda affiliate said to be more radical than HTS. The advisor did not mention this campaign.Syria has been struggling to rebuild from a brutal nine-year war. US sanctions that took effect under the Caesar Act over the summer specifically target the country’s energy and construction sectors. The act allows the US to target any individual, regardless of nationality, that is doing business in Syria and discourages Syria’s neighbors from helping in the reconstruction effort. The advisor said a Biden administration would "make clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that there can be no American, or European, support for the reconstruction of Syria unless political reform takes place."

Israeli Minister Warns Of War In Middle East If Biden Wins - Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi warns that a Biden presidency could ignite war in the Middle East, while Egypt fears Biden would aid the resurgence of Islamists in the region.  Hanegbi pointed out that Biden has indicated he will resurrect America’s nuclear agreement with Iran which was cancelled by the Trump administration.  For Israel, this would represent an existential threat to national security and drastically increase the chances of war with Tehran. “If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Hanegbi.  Meanwhile, other Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt are concerned that a Biden administration would mirror Barack Obama’s policies, which led to Islamists being empowered in the region.  Obama spearheaded the disastrous interventions in Syria and Libya which led to the rise of ISIS and the international migrant crisis.  Obama also suspended aid to Egypt after popular protests ousted Islamist President Muhammad Morsi in 2013. “Egyptians are likely to be concerned about a revival of Obama’s democracy agenda which meant actively encouraging political participation of Islamists,” reports Arab Weekly.  So in other words, if Biden wins, Americans have at least four more years of disastrous foreign interventions to look forward to.

 US mercenary exposes Trump administration links to abortive Venezuela invasion -The conspiracy to carry out the illegal invasion was hatched, at least in part, at the Trump Hotel in Washington D.C. and at a Trump golf course in Florida, and was facilitated by individuals with close ties to the US president and Vice President Mike Pence. The invasion, referred to as the “Bay of Piglets” due to its resemblance to the debacle suffered by the 1961 CIA-organized invasion of Cuba—albeit on a far smaller scale—ended with the capture of the two American ex-soldiers, Luke Denman and Airan Berry, along with 45 Venezuelan mercenaries. At least six others were killed in a separate landing on Venezuela’s northern Caribbean coast. Denman and Berry were sentenced by Venezuelan authorities to 20 years in prison on conspiracy and terrorism charges. The $1.4 million breach of contract lawsuit has been brought by Jordan Goudreau, a former Green Beret who heads the Florida-based security contractor Silvercorp USA that organized the failed landing, against J.J. Rendón. A multi-millionaire political consultant who has assisted right-wing campaigns across Latin America, Rendón had been tapped by the US-backed puppet, self-proclaimed “interim president” Juan Guaidó, to form a “strategic committee” to develop plans for the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Rendón was dismissed from this post shortly after the failure of the invasion and the publication of a “General Services Agreement” he had signed with Goudreau. With his lawsuit and in an exclusive interview with the Miami Herald and its parent company McClatchy, Goudreau has brought to light portions of this agreement that had previously been concealed. An addendum spells out the purpose of the operation, vaguely referred to in the agreement as providing assistance in procurement, logistics and “project execution and advisement.” The addendum states clearly that Silvercorp would “advise and assist … in planning and executing an operation to capture/detain/remove Nicolás Maduro (hereafter, ‘Primary Objective’), remove current regime, and install recognized Venezuelan President Juan Guaidó.” As the captured American mercenaries acknowledged, the plan had been for the landing parties to drive to Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, seize the airport and then kidnap Maduro and bundle him onto an aircraft bound for the US. An additional previously unknown clause stipulates that in the event of the kind of fiasco that transpired, Guaidó would be free to wash his hands of the entire affair. “If for any reason Project Resolute Operation does not succeed, President Guaidó will maintain deniability and be absolved from all knowledge and fault by all parties,” it states.

 DOJ Seizes 27 Domains As 'Iranian Disinformation' Including Popular Indy News Site - The Department of Justice announced Wednesday that it had seized 27 online domains on strong suspicion there were set up as media influence campaigns by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At least four of them were described by the DOJ as targeting an American audience, and one of them was a somewhat popular independent geopolitical news site, called American Herald Tribune:According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), four of the 27 domain names - "rpfront.com", "ahtribune.com", "awdnews.com", and "criticalstudies.org" - were seized as they breached the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which requires website holders to submit periodic registration statements containing truthful information about their activities and the income earned from them.   The DOJ statement said they purported to be news sites, with in some instances genuine news reporting and analysis, but that ultimately they were fronts for "Iranian propaganda" and "disinformation"."Here, the four domains purported to be independent news outlets, but they were actually operated by or on behalf of the IRGC to target the United States with pro-Iranian propaganda in an attempt to covertly influence the American people to change United States policy concerning Iran and the Middle East," the DOJ said.In the case of American Herald Tribune (AHT), the editor in chief, Anthony Hall, is based in Canada and the details proving Iranian affiliation have not been revealed. The online newspaper was known for its critical stance toward US foreign policy and was often linked to by other independent media and anti-war activist sites. This will only get worse in the coming years, thanks to corporate media collusion with spy agencies to sow panic & fear that unofficial media critical of US empire must be controlled by State Enemies. Added bonus: less competition for corporate media.https://t.co/aq8uVKLvrD — Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) November 5, 2020Interestingly the DOJ and FBI sought the cooperation of American big tech firms in the seizure: "Thanks to our ongoing collaboration with Google, Facebook, and Twitter, the FBI was able to disrupt this Iranian propaganda campaign and we will continue to pursue any attempts by foreign actors to spread disinformation in our country," FBI Special Agent in Charge Craig D. Fair announced in a statement. Screenshot of American Herald Tribune page before it was taken offline:

White House attacks Fauci for suggesting Trump does not take pandemic “seriously”On Saturday, the White House unloaded against Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, after the nation’s top infectious disease expert told the Washington Post that the US would surpass 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day and see rising death tolls unless there was an “abrupt change” in policy regarding the pandemic. Fauci spoke as the US recorded a new daily record of 100,000 cases on Friday, along with soaring hospitalizations that threaten to overwhelm the health care system. “We’re in for a whole lot of hurt,” Fauci told the newspaper. “It’s not a good situation. All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.” Fauci directly criticized Trump’s chief adviser on the pandemic, Dr. Scott Atlas, who opposes mask wearing or any other measures to slow the virus. “I have real problems with that guy,” he said, adding that his approach to the pandemic “doesn’t make any sense.” Of White Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’ recent statement that the administration is not seeking to control the pandemic, Fauci said, “I tip my hat to him for admitting the strategy.” Fauci went on to compare the attitude of the Democratic Biden campaign favorably to Trump’s strident opposition to measures to contain the deadly virus. Biden, he said, “is taking it seriously from a public health perspective,” while Trump is “looking at it from a different perspective … the economy and reopening the country.” In fact, Biden and the Democrats, while paying lip service to the advice of scientists to take measures to slow the spread of the virus, support the essence of Trump’s “herd immunity” policy—forcing workers back into the factories and teachers and students back into the schools in order to fully resume the flow of profits to the corporations and banks. The Democrats voted nearly unanimously for the multitrillion-dollar bailout of the corporate-financial elite last March, while allowing minimal aid to the millions laid off in the pandemic to expire so as to increase pressure on workers to return to unsafe workplaces. Going forward, Biden proposes little more than encouraging people to wear masks.

 Internal memo shows Birx contradicting Trump on pandemic: This is 'most deadly phase' yet - An internal memo from Deborah Birx that circulated among top officials in President Trump's administration pokes holes in the his claim that the country is "rounding the corner" in the fight against the coronavirus and soon will have defeated it. "We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic ... leading to increasing mortality," Birx said Monday in a memo reported by The Washington Post.. "This is not about lockdowns — It hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented." Trump has repeatedly attempted to reassure voters that his administration is helping the country "round the corner" and suggested the virus would soon disappear with or without a vaccine for widespread use. Birx, a member of the coronavirus task force led by Vice President Pence, has served as the nation's top expert on COVID-19 data and appeared almost daily on television and during briefings with reporters during the pandemic's early days. A top administration official told the Post that Birx has become increasingly frustrated by what she has characterized as feeling "ignored" by White House officials as she and others have warned against a potentially deadly second and third wave of the virus this fall and winter. The Monday memo specifically referenced Trump's recent campaign rallies, many of which have involved little social distancing or mask-wearing by attendees. Late on Sunday, Trump, who downplayed the dangers of the virus in the spring before contracting it himself last month, encouraged a crowd of supporters who chanted for him to "fire Fauci." Anthony Fauci is another leading member of the task force with whom Trump has publicly broken. "Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election," Trump said of Fauci. "He's a nice man, but he's been wrong on a lot." Birx's memo reportedly insists on a "much more aggressive action from messaging, to testing, to surging personnel around the country before the crisis point." For weeks, several states in the Upper Midwest and rural South have reported spikes in coronavirus cases, a trend public health officials attribute to loosened lockdown regulations and smaller family gatherings ahead of the holiday season. "This is about empowerment Americans with the knowledge and data for decision-making to prevent community spread and save lives," the memo said.

World coronavirus cases to soar past 50 million On Saturday, the number of confirmed global cases of the coronavirus pandemic will rocket past the grim milestone of 50 million. One in every 156 people on the planet have so far caught the disease, with no end in sight. Of those who contracted it, over 1.2 million have lost their lives to the deadly contagion, including more than 9,000 on Friday alone. It was just over two months ago that the world witnessed its 25 millionth case, on August 28. Daily new cases regularly exceed 500,000 and are well on their way to three-quarters of a million.  If these trends are allowed to continue, there may be 100 million cases by the end of the year, surging at a rate of 1 million cases each day. As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently told the Washington Post, “It’s not a good situation. All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.” One of the sharpest dangers is that hospitals become too overwhelmed to treat all of their patients. This is already taking place in El Paso, Texas and in various locations across Europe. As was witnessed in Wuhan, China; Lombardy, Italy and, to a lesser extent, New York City in the early days of the pandemic, the death rate skyrockets when there are not enough supplies and medical personnel to properly treat every patient. While the rate of new deaths to new cases is currently at just above one percent, it is likely that this number will spike if the coronavirus continues its essentially uncontrolled spread. The United States alone has recorded more than 10 million instances of infection, along with 242,000 deaths. The state of Texas surpassed the 1 million mark on Friday, placing it after the nation of Colombia as the tenth most infected region in the world. It is closely followed by California, which has more than 960,000 cases. Combined, they have over 37,000 deaths, more than all but eight other countries (excluding the US as a whole). Amid such calamitous numbers in the US and internationally, President Donald Trump’s fascistic former adviser Steve Bannon called for Dr. Fauci’s beheading. During his podcast Thursday, which has since been taken down by Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, Bannon declared that Trump should start his second term by “firing Wray, firing Fauci.” ("Wray" refers to FBI Director Christopher Wray). He continued, in medieval fashion, “I’d actually like to go back to the old times of Tudor England. I’d put their heads on pikes, right, I’d put them at the two corners of the White House as a warning to federal bureaucrats, you either get with the program or you're gone.” Fauci is widely recognized as one of the foremost authorities on infectious diseases, who rose to national prominence in the 1980s for his work combating the HIV/AIDS outbreaks in the United States. He has increasingly come under right-wing attack over the past several weeks for his criticisms of Trump’s policy, or rather lack thereof, in handling the pandemic, in the lead-up to the presidential election.

 After public appearance with no mask, Trump chief of staff tests positive for Covid - President Donald Trump's chief of staff Mark Meadows has been diagnosed with the coronavirus as the nation sets daily records for confirmed cases for the pandemic. Two senior administration officials confirmed Friday that Meadows had tested positive for the virus, which has killed more than 236,000 Americans so far this year. They offered no details on when the chief of staff came down with the virus or his current condition. His diagnosis was first reported by Bloomberg News. One administration official said several other staffers had tested positive as well. Meadows traveled with Trump in the run-up to Election Day and last appeared in public early Wednesday morning without a mask as Trump falsely declared victory in the vote count. He had been one of the close aides around Trump when the president came down with the virus more than a month ago, but was tested daily and maintained his regular work schedule. It marked the latest case of the virus in the West Wing, coming not even two weeks after Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, and other aides tests positive for the virus. Trump, first lady Melania Trump, and at least two dozen others tested positive for the virus in early October, after Trump held large gatherings of people not wearing face-masks, including the ceremony announcing the nomination of now-Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Trump has repeatedly said that the nation is “rounding the turn” on the pandemic, which was top of mind for voters in Tuesday's election. COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have increased more than 50% in the past two weeks. According to an AP analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University, the 7-day rolling average for daily new cases rose from 61,166 on Oct. 22 to 94,625 on Nov. 5.

 Trump administration detained over 500,000 immigrant children in three years - Data recently obtained from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) by the Marshall Project shows that the Trump administration has detained of over half a million immigrant children since 2017, peaking with 300,000 children detained during 2019 alone. The figures show that in at least 40 percent of all cases, the US government violated the 72-hour limit in which children can be held in the custody of Customs and Border Protection. A 1997 settlement, known as Flores, set the 3-day parameters. Yet these have long been circumvented as the mandate can be extended with an influx of minors—defined as over 130 detained. Since Trump took office, detention times have significantly lengthened as the number of children held at the border have soared. University of San Francisco law professor and immigration lawyer, Dr. Bill O. Hing, after visiting detention centers in 2019, reported witnessing minors held for increasingly long stints in unsafe facilities which were not designed to hold children and infants. New revelations also show that within the last eight months, at least 200 children from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador have been deported to Mexico where they have no family or connections. New York Times reporter Caitlin Dickerson gained access to an internal email written by an assistant chief of the US Border Patrol. In the leaked email the official stated that there were several suspected instances of Central American children being deported to Mexico, stating that it is a serious problem that needs to end because it puts in jeopardy Washington’s agreement with the Mexican government during the pandemic. Dickerson noted that Border Patrol “still haven't given us an explanation for whether these expulsions to Mexico were an accident, whether they're being done systematically from one port of entry and not another.” The careless or potentially purposeful actions have put these children in grave danger of being preyed upon by gangs and cartels in Mexico, and leave their families and relatives in the US and in Central America fraught with worry for the whereabouts of their missing children.

Why Google Is Facing Serious Accusations of Monopoly Practices -- The U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Google-Alphabet (Alphabet is Google’s parent company) on October 20 for a range of anti-competitive practices using its monopoly power in the search market. It is the only major action in the U.S. against tech monopolies in recent years, the last one being the 1998 action against Microsoft. Eleven state attorneys general have joined the Department of Justice suit, with more expected to follow.  Google’s current market share in online searches globally stands at about 92 percent and rises to more than 98 percent in countries like India. The only market in which it has virtually no market share is in China, where it shut shop for its search engine in 2010.  The four major tech companies—Google-Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple—are globally on the radar for their monopoly power and their ability to drive out competition. The recent hearings in the U.S. Congress relating to the Big Four were followed by a staff report of the subcommittee on antitrust, commercial and administrative law that recommended appropriate legislative action to Congress to either break up or limit these companies.  Facebook has additionally come under the scanner for being an instrument of hate speech, helping the formation of violent militias, and promoting conspiracy theories, including COVID-19 conspiracies. A Delhi assembly committee—Committee on Peace and Harmony—is investigating Facebook’s role in Delhi’s communal riots that took place earlier in 2020 (full disclosure: I also deposed before this committee). Meanwhile, Google faces the following charges in the lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice:

• Creating a web of exclusionary and interlocking business agreements to shut out competitors
• Paying mobile phone manufacturers and web browsers to make Google as their preset, default search engine
• Controlling the online ad market with its selling and buying tools to ensure that web publishers are locked in
• Using its control over the Android operating system to position its Chrome web browser and search engine as the default for mobile platforms

The simple issue is that Google uses its monopoly over the search engine and its other Google properties to grab more than 30 percent—$103.73 billion in 2019—of the global digital ad revenue pie.

 Jeff Bezos dumped $3 billion worth of Amazon stock – CNN -Jeff Bezos sold more than $3 billion worth of his Amazon stock this week, taking advantage of a 75% surge in his company's value this year. The Amazon CEO didn't explain why he sold so many shares, but he regularly sells off his stock, often using it to fund his Blue Origin space company and other ventures.Billionaires with large holdings typically diversify their portfolios so they don't have all their eggs in a single basket. Bezos also offloaded large amount of shares in August and February of this year, too. He has sold more than $10 billion worth of Amazon stock this year, according to OpenInsider's compilation of Amazon's regulatory filings. That's up from nearly $3 billion in 2019. Amazon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment about Bezos' sale.Bezos has in the past said he sells roughly $1 billion worth of stock a year to fund Blue Origin, and he pledged to sell more than $1 billion this year as its gets closer to commercial operations. He also recently launched a $10 billion fund to combat climate change.Last month, Blue Origin launched its space tourism rocket to the edge of Earth's atmosphere. It marked the 13th test flight of New Shepard, as the vehicle is called, but it still has yet to fly with humans on board. Even with the massive stock dump, Bezos remains the world's richest person, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

 Houston billionaire charged with biggest tax evasion case in U.S. History, feds say -The feds didn't mince words when they leveled charges against Houston billionaire Robert Brockman, who is accused of taking $2 billion through an elaborate scheme. Prosecutors call it the biggest case of tax evasion of its kind in American history against a single individual, according to the U.S. Justice Department. "Complexity will not hide crime from law enforcement," U.S. Attorney Dave Anderson said at a Thursday press conference announcing the charges. "We will not hesitate to prosecute the smartest guys in the room." Brockman, the CEO of a software company was charged in a 39-count indictment Thursday that includes charges of money laundering, conspiracy, wire fraud and tax evasion, according to the U.S. Justice Department.  The extensive 42-page indictment unsealed Thursday morning states that Brockman created companies on the British Virgin Islands and allegedly used them to hide assets from the IRS. In the indictment, prosecutors allege that Brockman's scheme was decades long, covering a 20-year period. The charges also include allegations that between 2008 and 2010, Brockman reportedly bilked investors out of nearly $68 million. The feds' case against Brockman was further supported by another billionaire Robert F. Smith.  According to prosecutors, Smith assisted Brockman in hiding his profits earned through Smith's company Vista Equity Partners via offshore accounts. "No scheme is too complex or sophisticated for our investigators," Chief of IRS Criminal Investigation Jim Lee said. "Those hiding income or assets offshore are encouraged to come forward and voluntarily disclose their holdings. According to the allegations in the indictment, Brockman's scheme was comprised of a tangled web of offshore entities. Brockman allegedly directed untaxed capital gains income to secret bank accounts in Bermuda and Switzerland, according to the indictment. Prosecutors said that he created code words on encrypted emails in an attempt to hide his assets overseas. According to the indictment, Brockman's code word was "Permit," and the IRS was called "the house." He assigned others certain names with fish-themed code names, including "Redfish," "King," "Bonefish," "Snapper, or "Steelhead."

Banks rush to take fines under Trump, casting light on misdeeds - Giant banks have racked up more than $4 billion in U.S. penalties in a wave of settlements weeks before the presidential election. That says a lot about an industry that once vowed to behave after the 2008 financial crisis — and about the regulatory risks it sees ahead. Goldman Sachs Group recently incurred a record punishment for foreign bribery under a roughly $3 billion package of accords for its role in Malaysia’s plundered 1MDB investment fund. JPMorgan Chase resolved a market-manipulation probe for more than $920 million. Citigroup was fined $400 million for failing to maintain adequate risk controls. For the industry, that bulge of settlements — plus others — removes the threat of stiffer fines if President Trump loses this week and challenger Joe Biden installs more aggressive regulators to take over active probes. But the penalties also cast fresh light on the persistence of financial professionals’ misbehavior, with investigators noting that the schemes at Goldman and JPMorgan began brewing before the 2008 crisis was fully over. That’s an untimely stain as banks brace for the potential arrival of new sheriffs. “To the extent that some of the lessons from the financial crisis seem to be going unlearned, I think that is a problem,” said Christopher Wolfe, head of North American banks coverage at Fitch Ratings. “You would think by now that everybody knows you’re going to get caught — these things always get found out and there’s always going to be consequences for it, but yet people still engage in this behavior.” Recurring misconduct doesn’t only antagonize regulators. Fines can indicate governance failings that can weigh on banks’ credit ratings, especially in a more difficult economic environment, Wolfe wrote in a report last week. Investors also are increasingly focusing on environmental, social and governance matters, which may become a bigger issue for banks regardless of who wins the election, Wolfe said. The three giant U.S. banks aren’t alone in settling recently. Since the start of August, Deutsche Bank, Capital One Financial, Bank of Nova Scotia and Toronto-Dominion Bank also have resolved probes with penalties that piled up into the hundreds of millions of dollars. If Trump loses, more banks may rush to wrap up cases before Biden’s inauguration. “There are a handful of financial institutions in my view that may try to settle with an outgoing Trump administration rather than face what could be a more aggressive Biden enforcement regime,” said Elliott Stein, senior litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “If Trump wins, I think ongoing cases continue apace.” To be sure, ending a probe isn’t just a matter of writing a check. Accords often include agreements to overhaul internal systems or controls. In some cases, such as the Federal Reserve’s cap on Wells Fargo’s assets — essentially limiting the bank’s growth — that’s the main focus. Ultimately, remediation can stretch over years and cost 12 times as much as an initial fine, soaking up management’s attention and other resources,

Goldman plaintiffs demand files with words they say prove bias - Women suing Goldman Sachs Group for gender discrimination are going after any internal documents with words like “babe,” “bimbo” or worse that they say would show bias by executives who administered the bank’s promotion and evaluation policies. The women sued Goldman in 2010, in one of the biggest employment discrimination cases in Wall Street history, claiming it made biased compensation decisions and denied women opportunities they had earned. Goldman has denied the allegations. Last week, the plaintiffs told U.S. Magistrate Judge Robert Lehrburger that Goldman should be required to turn over any such documents before executives who have served on its management committee are questioned under oath. Goldman spokeswoman Leslie Shribman declined to comment on the request. In a letter filed shortly after midnight on Monday, the bank said it had conducted “extensive searches” earlier to identify any such documents and turned over emails. The plaintiffs’ proposal for new searches would be costly and take an estimated 17 months, according to Goldman. Read more: Blankfein, Cohn Must Testify in Goldman Sex-Bias Case The lawsuit was granted class action status in 2018, allowing four women who worked for the bank to represent more than 2,000. At one point, a different judge ruled that the plaintiffs couldn’t go forward with the “boys’ club” allegations of disparate treatment as part of their class action case. Lehrburger later ruled that such evidence could be relevant if it showed that executives in charge of hiring and performance evaluation policies harbored a bias against women. In March, Lehrburger dealt the plaintiffs a blow, ruling that the bank could force more than 1,000 of the women into arbitration, one of corporate America’s most powerful weapons for fending off discrimination claims. Last month, he denied Goldman’s bid to block the depositions of former chief executive officer Lloyd Blankfein and former president Gary Cohn. He said he would decide after their depositions are taken whether the women can also take testimony from CEO David Solomon.

JPMorgan Chase warns of upcoming fine over internal controls - JPMorgan Chase has warned of a potential civil money penalty from one of its regulators related to past errors in its advisory business, according to a regulatory filing. The penalty would be tied to “historical deficiencies in internal controls and internal audit over certain advisory and other activities,” the $3.2 trillion-asset company said in a 10-Q filing Monday. The fresh legal trouble comes a little over a month after JPMorgan agreed to pay a $920 million fine for manipulating the markets for precious metals and Treasury securities. Financial institutions are said to be rushing to take fines and settle outstanding issues with authorities in case President Trump loses the election and his opponent Joe Biden appoints more aggressive regulators who might take tougher stances on the matters. JPMorgan said in its filing that controls have been put in place to address the shortcomings cited by the regulator, which it did not name. The company is in talks with the regulator to resolve the matter, but with the warning of a fine, it appears there are still objections. “Sometimes we see these additional penalties when it takes a long time to resolve or is not resolved in a way the regulators would like,” said Brian Kleinhanzl, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. A spokesman for JPMorgan declined to comment beyond the regulatory filing. The JPMorgan dustup would be the latest crackdown by federal regulators related to internal controls issues at major banks. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve made Citigroup pay a $400 million penalty in October for allowing too many errors to slip by while under consent orders for anti-money-laundering and other compliance problems. Spokesmen for the OCC and the Fed declined to comment on the JPMorgan filing.

 Regulators tell banks they can choose any replacement rate for Libor— Banking regulators on Friday said financial institutions can choose any reference rate to replace the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, which is set to sunset in 2021. The statement comes after multiple small and midsize banks earlier this year told the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that the regulators’ preferred Libor replacement — the secured overnight financing rate — was ill-suited to them since they don't have many ties to the repo market. They argued SOFR was more appropriate for larger banks. Some banks have also expressed concern that SOFR could result in a “mismatch” between bank assets and liabilities in the event of economic stress. The Alternative Reference Rates Committee, a group convened by the Fed, has endorsed SOFR as the best replacement for Libor. But the banking agencies said Friday that the use of SOFR is voluntary. “A bank may use any reference rate for its loans that the bank determines to be appropriate for its funding model and customer needs,” the regulators said in the joint statement. But regardless of what replacement rate banks choose, they should include fallback language in all lending contracts that would take effect when Libor is discontinued to ease the transition away from the reference rate, the agencies said. Many small and medium-sized banks have said that that they would prefer to use Ameribor, an index specifically created for small and midsize banks by Richard Sandor, a major figure in Chicago trading. The index is based on transactions in the overnight loan market on the American Financial Exchange, which Sandor also founded. “The agencies recognize that banks’ funding models differ and that in structuring their lending activities it is appropriate for banks to select suitable replacement rates for LIBOR that are most appropriate given their specific circumstances,” the joint statement says. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told senators in February that he was open to exploring a separate alternative reference rate that would be credit sensitive as the industry prepares for the transition away from Libor. “A number of banks have come forward and said that they want to work on a separate rate, which would not replace SOFR, but would be credit sensitive, and so they're doing that now and ... we're working with them to support that process,” he said. “We're open to that, but it doesn't mean that this the transition away from Libor to SOFR will stop. It has to go forward.”

Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 64 Institutions - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.  Here is the unofficial problem bank list for October 2020. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for October 2020. During the month, the list decreased by one to 64 banks after a removal. A year ago, the list held 71 institutions with assets of $53.4 billion. First City Bank of Florida, Fort Walton Beach, FL ($135 million) exited the list through failure on October 16, 2020.  On October 7, 2020, the OCC issued a couple of formal actions against Citibank, National Association, Sioux Falls, SD (FDIC Cert#7213, 2q2020 assets -- $1.633 trillion). The formal actions included a Consent Orderand a Civil Money Penalty Order. The Consent Order states that “the OCC intends to intends to initiate cease and desist proceedings against the Bank pursuant to 12 U.S.C. § 1818(b), through the issuance of a Notice of Charges, for deficiencies in its data governance, risk management, and internal controls that constitute unsafe or unsound practices and that contributed to violations of law or regulation” Because of the deficiencies specified in the Consent Order, the OCC issued a $400 million Civil Money Penalty against Citibank. Separately, the Federal Reserve issued a formal enforcement action against the parent bank holding company, Citigroup Inc., that states “… Citigroup has not adequately remediated the longstanding enterprise-wide risk management and control deficiencies …” The substance and nature of these enforcement actions would land most banks on the problem bank list, but our guess is that the FDIC will not designate Citibank as a problem bank. As some observers say, size does have its privileges.

 CFPB grants safe harbor to Bank of America for small-dollar loans - Bank of America became the first major bank to receive a “no-action letter” from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau covering small-dollar loans. The CFPB announced Thursday that it approved BofA’s no-action letter application that gives the the Charlotte, N.C., bank increased certainty that it will not receive a supervisory or enforcement action for a credit product that it plans to offer next year. BofA said last month that it plans to roll out a short-term, payday loan beginning in January that allows checking account customers to borrow up to $500 for a flat fee of $5. Customers must have a checking account for at least a year and repay the loan in three, equal monthly installments over a 90-day period. The move follows guidance issued by prudential regulators in May encouraging banks to embrace small-dollar lending to help consumers hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. “The Bureau approved the [no-action letter] Template to further competition in the small-dollar lending space, which fosters access to credit while including important protections for consumers who seek small-dollar loan products,” the CFPB said in a press release. Bank of America’s application to the CFPB was based on a template requested by the Bank Policy Institute, a Washington trade group. The application came after the CFPB released an approved template in May that banks could use in seeking a “no-action letter” for offering loans or lines of credit for amounts of up to $2,500. While the CFPB does not endorse specific products or providers, the template provides parameters that the bureau has approved. Companies can use the templates to get speedy approval of their own no-action letters. The CFPB also said that it had submitted a Paperwork Reduction Act notice to the Office of the Federal Register related to the testing of consumer disclosures. In July, when the CFPB released its payday lending rule, the bureau said it was trying to identify information that could be disclosed to consumers during the small-dollar lending process to allow them to make informed choices. “The testing of different consumer disclosures supports the Bureau’s commitment to ensuring that consumers have the information they need to understand the small dollar products available to them so they can make the choices that are best for them and their personal circumstances,” the bureau said in a press release.

 CFPB orders firm to pay $1.5M for 'misleading' loan payment disclosures - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ruled that customers of a Texas company should get up to $7.5 million for allegedly misleading statements about an auto loan payment service, but in a twist the CFPB could end up paying most of the restitution. The CFPB issued the order this week against SMART Payment Plan LLC, but determined that the Austin company must only pay $1.5 million of the redress — because the company couldn't afford more than that — and a $1 civil money penalty. The nominal fine enables the CFPB to compensate harmed consumers for the rest of what they are owed from pre-existing resources in the agency's civil penalty fund. The consent order, released Monday, said that if the final restitution amount is less than $7.5 million, the bureau will send the difference to the Treasury Department. The CFPB alleged that SMART Payment's service purports to allow consumers to pay off their auto loans faster by making automatic partial payments that match a customer's paycheck. By paying biweekly rather than monthly, a customer could make 13 monthly payments a year, or one full extra payment, on their auto loan. The company charged a $399 membership fee and a $1.95 biweekly debit fee to consumers enrolled in its auto loan payment accelerator service. The bureau claims the company marketed the plan "as a financial benefit to consumers, however, [the company] was aware that during the relevant period the vast majority of its consumers ended up paying more in total on their loans by enrolling in the Smart Plan.” The CFPB said that the company sent individual “benefits summaries” to customers from 2012 to 2015 that purported to state specific interest savings or other savings from enrolling in the plan, but that the fees "would ordinarily exceed the savings." "SMART’s disclosures thus created the misleading impression that consumers would save money using its product," the bureau said in a press release. The bureau said most of the company’s customers dropped out of the service before the end of their loan term, which resulted in customers “not receiving even the misleading benefit amounts promised.”

CFPB investigating Regions’ overdraft practices - Regions Financial is the latest bank to face regulatory scrutiny over fees charged to consumers who overdraw their accounts. The $145 billion-asset company disclosed Thursday that it is in the process of responding to a civil investigative demand from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over certain overdraft practices and policies. The disclosure, which did not include any additional details, came in a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A company spokesman said Friday that Regions is cooperating with the CFPB’s inquiry. “We take any inquiry very seriously, and we believe we have structured our overdraft services in a way that meets the needs of customers while complying with rules governing these services,” spokesman Jeremy King said in an email. Following the disclosure, analysts at Janney Montgomery Scott downgraded their rating on Regions from “buy” to “neutral,” citing not only the CFPB inquiry but other factors including a recent recovery in the company’s stock price. Shares in Birmingham, Ala.-based Regions were down 1.75% in morning trading on Friday. Regions is only the latest bank to attract regulators’ attention over overdraft practices. In August, TD Bank agreed to pay $122 million in fines and restitution in a settlement with the CFPB, which alleged that the firm deceptively charged overdraft fees for certain ATM and one-time debit card transactions. In 2018, TCF Financial agreed to pay $30 million in fines and restitution to settle a CFPB lawsuit that alleged the company engaged in deceptive and abusive overdraft practices. If Democrat Joe Biden gets elected president and appoints a new CFPB director, the scrutiny of overdraft fees by the agency’s enforcement arm could be accompanied by new rules governing how the charges can be imposed. Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, stated last month that he would expect a prospective new CFPB director to impose a ban on charging more than one overdraft fee per day, as well as a requirement that banks process transactions in a way that minimizes the charges. When Regions pays an overdraft, it charges customers a $36 fee. The bank’s website states that it authorizes and pays overdrafts for transactions made with checks and for automatic bill payments. It also states that customers may opt to have overdrafts paid on transactions made with debit cards or at ATMs, and that if customers do not choose to authorize those transactions, they will be declined. In 2019, Regions collected $373 million in fees from customers who either overdrew their accounts or were charged for failing to have sufficient funds to complete a transaction, according to an analysis of regulatory data by the Center for Responsible Lending.

BankThink: Consumers have too little control over how their data is shared - Consumer data remains widely used in a majority of today’s businesses, from banks and lenders, to marketers and employers. And while privacy concerns have led to the development of broad regulatory frameworks that seek to grant a modicum of control to the consumer over their personal data, it’s still widely trafficked with the consumer having very little control over their data flow. This tangled web of data providers, privacy concerns and regulations results in an inefficient ecosystem that benefits no one. In addition to limitations for the consumer, banks and lenders only have access to the data that is available from providers. Despite the latest efforts to improve this, no good system exists that enables individuals and businesses to exchange data in a reliable and transparent way. What’s needed is a new framework for consumer data sharing, based on two core principles. First, the individual consumer should have full control over when and what data is shared, and with whom. Second, there needs to be a guarantee of the integrity and provenance of the shared data to the requesting bank or lender. Fortunately, the digitization of data, on-demand software services and the emergence of application programming interfaces (APIs), create disruptive new opportunities to access and share consumer data. Thus, technology can be put to work in a way that allows the user to control their own data without sacrificing the integrity and provenance requirements of the requesting party. This represents a new paradigm shift in the relationship between the consumer, their data and the requesting business. Rather than having a service provider consent to a broad “information request” by a bank for instance, the consumer provides explicit permission to a service provider working on their behalf to share a piece of their personal data, and only that data, with the requesting bank. This permission-based approach relies on the consumer providing their explicit consent and authorization to access and share the specific item of data from the primary source of the data, and solely for the specific purpose. It ensures that the consumer is in complete control of their data, whom they are sharing it with and the granularity of that data being shared. Examples include sharing income information directly from the payroll processor; transcript information directly from the academic institution; employment validation directly from the employer; or bank balance information directly from the financial institution. In the case when an employer hires a background check provider to verify a candidate’s degree completion, the prospective employee provides consent to a service provider system working on their behalf to electronically access and retrieve the necessary information to complete the degree verification (like a college transcript) from the university system. The system extracts the data, establishes the degree verification and shares this information with the requesting business on behalf of the user. The verification is based on original data from the university site, ensuring its integrity. On the other hand, no excess information is shared with the background check company, limiting the scope of the data sharing to necessary data only. The enabling technology for such a consent-based approach is a platform that sits between the consumer and the requesting business and which manages the authorization, access and sharing of the data on behalf of the consumer. A consent-based platform resets the relationship between the consumer, their personal data and the service providers and/or requesting businesses. The benefits of this approach extend well beyond privacy. With a consent-based approach, the data that can be shared is limited only by the consumer’s ability to provide access to it.

 More gridlock, new tax threats loom after election - After historic spending in support of more than 400 congressional candidates, credit unions finds themselves in much the same position as it was before the election. A host of industry priorities stalled in the months leading up to the election, and partisan gridlock is not expected to lessen once a new Congress is sworn in. Because of this, credit unions could have a slim chance of advancing the most pressing items on their agenda. That includes a new economic stimulus package, which features additional changes to the National Credit Union Administration’s Central Liquidity Facility and troubled debt restructuring. There is also a chance that lawmakers will look for new funding opportunities to offset the recent heavy spending meant to temper the economic fallout from the coronavirus. That could endanger the industry's tax-extempt status, industry sources said on Wednesday. Given how much state and federal governments have spent in response to the pandemic and with more spending likely to come, “it would be reasonable to expect…that there is going to be a close look at revenue generation at the federal level and certainly at the state level, and that’s going to put tax expenditures under significant scrutiny,” Ryan Donovan, chief advocacy officer at the Credit Union National Association, said during a Wednesday morning press call. Trade groups for banks and credit unions frequently raise the issue of the tax exemption, but those moves are often more about rallying their members than any actual threats to the industry. The only time in the last decade there was serious discussion of rethinking CUs' tax status came in 2018 when outgoing Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch suggested the industry had evolved beyond its tax exemption, though little came of that. “I do think the conditions that exist now certainly lend more toward taking a look at lots of different funding mechanisms, so [tax status] is something that is a concern,” said Carrie Hunt, EVP and general counsel at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions. “We’ll have to see over the next couple of weeks what happens with all of these various elections and what the eventual leadership agenda looks like.” The White House will also set the tone for those discussions, many said, noting that a Biden presidency grappling with a Republican-controlled Senate would face significant obstacles on any tax reform.

 Partisan gridlock appears intact. Why that's good for banks - — As the nation awaited the conclusion of a bitter 2020 election, the fears among bankers of a "blue wave" bringing new regulations and higher taxes quickly dissipated. With Joe Biden on the verge of winning the presidential election, Republicans appeared close to keeping their Senate majority, although the outcome in two Georgia races could ultimately determine which party controls the upper chamber. With divided government a likelier prospect than before the election, when many pollsters were predicting a Democratic sweep, bankers and other analysts sounded increasingly confident that the industry dodged a bullet. Two-party control of Washington "serves as a backstop" to prevent "some of the most extreme progressive legislation coming over from the House of Representatives that we witnessed over the last two years,” said Richard Hunt, president and CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association. The final count in the Senate was still uncertain late Friday. The race in North Carolina was not yet decided, although Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., appeared close to reelection. Meanwhile, both Senate races in Georgia appeared headed for runoffs Jan. 5 to determine the winners. If Tillis can hold on and the GOP can win one of the two seats in Georgia, banks will likely be able to fend off progressive legislative proposals to cap interest rates on credit cards, break up "too big to fail" institutions, create a postal banking system, and establish a public credit reporting agency. It also means that potential Biden picks for cabinet and regulatory positions would need approval from GOP senators. Ideas such as a "cap on interest rates, a [national] consumer credit reporting bureau, [and] breaking up the big banks" can "rest in peace," Hunt said. But divided government could have some negative consequences for banks. The industry's two main legislative priorities — making it easier for banks to serve cannabis businesses and easing anti-money-laundering requirements — were both backed by the Democratic House and face opposition from GOP senators. J.W. Verret, an assistant professor of law at George Mason University, said legislative gridlock between House Democrats and Senate Republicans that started after the 2018 midterm elections will likely continue.

Debit payments surge central to DOJ suit to stop Visa-Plaid deal -The U.S. Department of Justice's lawsuit against Visa alleges that the card network's $5.3 billion deal to buy Plaid is meant to neutralize a competitive threat — even though Visa and Plaid do not see themselves as competing with each other.The Justice Department's antitrust suit, filed Thursday, argues that the San Francisco data aggregator threatens Visa's dominant online debit franchise. The move underscores merchants’ growing discomfort with Visa’s expanding debit market share, which the coronavirus pandemic has only accelerated.The U.K.’s Competition and Market Authority in June spent two months looking into the competitive effect of a Visa-Plaid combination and found no reason to block the deal. The U.S. reportedly has been scrutinizing the Visa-Plaid deal for months and has lined up potential witnesses.“Visa seeks to buy Plaid — as its CEO said — as an ‘insurance policy’ to neutralize a ‘threat to our important U.S debit business,’ ” the Justice Department said in the lawsuit, which calls Visa a “monopolist” in online debit transactions.Plaid’s technology enables third parties like Venmo and other nonbanks to provision digital wallets and mobile apps by extracting consumer account data through its relationships with more than 11,000 U.S. banks. The Justice Department noted that Visa controls about 70% of U.S. online debit transactions, and online debit accounted for about half of the $4 billion Visa earned last year from debit. It also noted that COVID-19 has led to a significant increase in online debit transactions this year. Debit, including Visa’s growing share of Visa Direct debit push payments, is the fastest-growing category of Visa’s transactions, Visa executives told analysts when discussing fourth-quarter results on Oct. 28. The Justice Department’s case alleges that Visa’s large market share — dwarfing Mastercard’s 25% piece of the online debit market — and existing connections to millions of consumers, merchants and banks present a barrier to challengers entering the market.   Included in the suit is a drawing of a volcano allegedly sketched in March of last year by a top Visa executive illustrating the threat Plaid posed to Visa’s business. Visa said in a statement Thursday that it strongly disagrees with the Justice Department’s position. “This action reflects a lack of understanding of Plaid’s business and the highly competitive payments landscape in which Visa operates,” Visa said, noting that by acquiring Plaid, Visa will enhance consumers’ payment options. Some observers see flaws in the Justice Department’s case, primarily because it’s not obvious that consumers would be harmed if Visa owned Plaid.  “The DOJ’s case strikes me as an expansion of antitrust doctrine, while Visa’s acquisition of Plaid actually stands to facilitate more payments flowing through digital wallets, retail and P2P apps funded by ACH or [real-time payments], which otherwise would be funded by Visa payments,” Grover said.

 Former FDIC head Sheila Bair to chair Fannie Mae board - Sheila Bair, the former head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. during the 2008 financial crisis, will chair the board of the government-controlled mortgage giant Fannie Mae beginning Nov. 20, the company announced Wednesday. Bair joined Fannie’s board in August 2019. Her fellow directors unanimously elected her the successor to Jonathan Plutzik as chair, though Plutzik will remain on the board. The selection comes as Fannie — under the guidance of its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency — is attempting to exit conservatorship, where it has lingered since its bailout in 2008. “Sheila is the perfect person to lead the board and help guide the company as we continue to transition out of government control,” Fannie Mae CEO Hugh Frater said in a statement Wednesday. “She will help chart a course forward for the company while making sure we never forget our mission to support mortgage financing in a safe and sound manner.” Bair had long been a critic of the structure of Fannie and its brother Freddie Mac going back to her role in the George W. Bush administration. While she has acknowledged the important role the two government-sponsored enterprises play in buying mortgages and selling them in securities to investors with an implied government guarantee, she has pushed for Congress to decide their permanent fate. “Our future financial stability demands that we deal with these implicit liabilities head on, and limit the ability of private companies to take risks at the expense of the taxpayer,” Bair said in a 2010 speech as the chair of the FDIC. “In the case of the mortgage GSEs, there are a variety of options for making some of their functions governmental while putting others in private hands. But what we cannot do is perpetuate their quasi-governmental status, which privatizes gains and socializes losses.” Fannie Mae has paid $181.4 billion in dividends to the Treasury Department after drawing $119.8 billion in bailouts as of Sept. 30, according to the company’s latest financial results. After years of stalled legislation to reform Fannie and Freddie, the FHFA and the Treasury announced a suspension of the dividend payments while the companies are allowed to rebuild their capital reserves in preparation for exiting conservatorship administratively. “Sheila’s deep well of experience will provide strong leadership as Fannie Mae works with the Federal Housing Finance Agency to exit conservatorship while simultaneously fulfilling our mission to provide access to safe, affordable mortgage financing,” Plutzik said in a statement Wednesday announcing Bair’s new position.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.83%" -Note: This is as of October 25th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.83% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 5.90% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.83% as of October 25, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.9 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“With more borrowers exiting forbearance in the prior week, the share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types. Almost half of forbearance exits to date have been from borrowers who remained current while in forbearance, or who were reinstated by paying back past-due amounts,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The share of loans in forbearance has returned to levels last seen in early April, but it still remains remarkably high. Further improvement will require ongoing recovery in the job market, as well as additional fiscal stimulus.”...By stage, 23.95% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 74.49% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.56% are forbearance re-entries.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.11% to 0.10%." There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits, but improvement might have slowed.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased --Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of November 3rd. From Black Knight: Forbearance Fall 5% After Slight Increase After last week’s slight increase, the latest data from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that nationwide forbearance volumes have fallen by 152,000 (-5%) since last Tuesday, driven by October forbearance expiration activity. This was roughly what was expected for the first week of the month, though we will be on the lookout for further potential drops, given the remaining scheduled expirations. With some 161,000 active forbearance plans having expired at the end of October, additional extension and/or removal activity could be seen in coming days....As of Nov. 3, there are 2.9 million active forbearance plans, representing some 5.4% of mortgage-holders, down from 5.7% last week and the lowest we’ve seen since mid-April during the onset of the pandemic. Together, they represent $584 billion in unpaid principal.There were 87,000 starts over the past week, the largest volume since April, but 57% of these were repeat starts for borrowers who had previously been in forbearance, left their plans, and have since returned. These forbearance starts and restarts are worth watching, as we see them trending upward. It may well be that this is still due to the drop in early October, but given the rising trend, they warrant a close eye.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "2020 Originations Will Surpass $4 Trillion for First Time Ever" -- Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to Black Knight, 6.66% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 6.88% in August, and up from 3.53% in September 2019. Black Knight also reported that 0.34% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.48% a year ago.This gives a total of 7.00% delinquent or in foreclosure.  Press Release: Rate Lock Data Suggests 2020 Originations Will Surpass $4 Trillion for First Time Ever; Q3 Originations Likely to Set New Quarterly Records: This month, the company looked into rate lock data – historically a good indicator of lending activity – and found that Q3 2020 mortgage originations are set to break quarterly records in terms of refinance, purchase and total lending volumes, the data and market conditions also suggest that origination volumes could remain elevated into November and beyond.“Rate lock data from Black Knight’s Compass Analytics division shows that Q3 2020 mortgage originations are on track to break quarterly records across the board and remain strong moving into Q4,” said Graboske. “This suggests that origination and prepayment activity will likely remain elevated well into Q4 2020. September lock activity held relatively level with August, but through October 19, lock activity overall is up 4% from the month prior – with purchase locks up 6% and refinance locks up 3% thus far. Interest rates setting new record lows in mid- and late October will likely continue to fuel lock activity in coming weeks. “Assuming a 45-day lock-to-close period, not only could Q3 2020 set quarterly records for refinance, purchase and total origination volumes alike, but that volume could remain at or near peak levels through November 2020 – if not longer. Estimated origination volumes based on underlying locks suggest both Q3 refinance and total originations could be up 25% or more from Q2 while purchase lending could be up by 35% or more. This would push 2020 purchase lending to the highest level since 2005 and both refinance lending and total origination volumes to their highest levels ever. Indeed, total lending in 2020 is well on its way to easily eclipse the $4 trillion mark for the first time in history.” Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the status of loans that have left forbearance by loan product. From Black Knight:Not only have forbearance take-up rates varied widely by loan product, but the rate at which borrowers are leaving such plans has varied greatly as well
• The GSEs have seen the highest removal rates, with 57% of borrowers having left their plans, 42% now re-performing on their loans and another 10% having paid off their loans in full
• VA loans show an even higher payoff rate at 11%, but only 21% of VA borrowers are re-performing and only 46% have left their plans
• Similarly, 45% of FHA borrowers have left forbearance plans, while 27% are re-performing and only 6% have paid off their mortgages in full.
There is much more in the mortgage monitor - especially related to forbearance.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey:  Mortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 30, 2020. ... The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates continue to hover at record lows this fall. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained essentially unchanged at 3.01 percent last week, but rates for 15-year fixed-rate loans, FHA loans and jumbo loans all fell to new MBA survey lows,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in rates spurred an uptick in demand for refinances. Activity increased over 6 percent, with borrowers notably seeking conventional and government loans. After a solid stretch of purchase applications growth, activity decreased for the fifth time in six weeks, but was still over 25 percent higher than a year ago, and has increased year-over-year for six straight months. 2020 continues to overall be a strong year for the housing market.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.01 percent from 3.00 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity. But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.

 CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in September - Notes:  The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Powering Up in 2020: Annual U.S. Home Price Appreciation Jumped to Six-Year High in September, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2020. Nationally, home prices increased 6.7% in September 2020, compared with September 2019, marking the fastest annual acceleration since May 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared to August 2020. Home-purchase demand maintained pace in the late summer compared to previous years, as record-low mortgage rates continue to motivate prospective homebuyers, including first-time buyers and homeowners looking to trade-up or invest in a second home. However, according to the National Association of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau, the national supply of homes for sale fell to the lowest recorded level in September at 40% of that seen in September 2008 and 75% of that seen in September 2000. This severe inventory shortage has intensified upward pressure on home price appreciation as consumers compete for the limited number of homes on the market. “Housing continues to be a bright spot during an otherwise challenging economic time for many U.S. households,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Those in sectors that weathered the transition to remote work successfully are now able to take advantage of low mortgage rates to purchase a home for the first time or to trade-up to a larger home.” “COVID has contributed to the acute shortage of inventory as the pace of new construction slowed and older prospective sellers postponed listing their homes until after the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Once the pandemic passes or a vaccine is widely administered, we should see a noticeable pick-up in for-sale homes. And if the economy’s recovery is sluggish next year, distressed sales may also add to market inventory.”

 The Other Eviction Moratorium: Storefront and Office Tenants are Hanging on. But for How Long? - Yves here. I was surprised when I went to New York to see that there wasn’t much of an increase in shuttered storefronts compared to the old normal (and there were a lot due to landlords putting through aggressive rent increases starting 3-4 years back). I have to confess that I didn’t know that there was an eviction freeze for commercial tenants too. The article below has some data on the lease renegotiations for restaurants. Notice most are holding their ground.Here in Alabama, there are even fewer store closures, when you’d expect to see a marked increase due to the stresses on venues like restaurants and salons. But those shoes may be starting to drop. But the press has also reported that bankruptcies of smaller businesses are also very low. Apparently the various support programs allowed for many proprietors to wind up their operations rather than hit the wall and suffer eviction.The piece gives a very informative look at the overall storefront commercial rent picture, and highlights the way landlords often refuse to lower rents and will keep retail space vacant. I saw this on Third and Madison Avenue, where departing tenants and other informed people would tell me the landlord doubled the rent, and the property would be vacant more than half the time in the next two-three years, clearly a net losing proposition. Yet landlords refuse to budge. Given that behavior, a vacancy tax for vacancies beyond a reasonable lease-up period seems warranted. The city needs to have people working, and as Richard Murphy says, landlords above all should be taking Covid hits. From a recent post: The key issue that the government has to decide upon is who will bear the economic consequences of what is to happen. I have already indicated in my first post on this issue that I think that the consequences of this epidemic will fall upon three clearly identifiable groups, which are individuals, businesses and government. However, when appraising who will bear the cost the criteria are slightly different… But that is not to say that there are no costs to an epidemic: clearly there are. In that case the question has to be asked as to who should bear that cost. There are three groups who should.  Firstly, landlords should. I have already suggested that should the epidemic spread then as a matter of statutory right any tenant should be provided with a minimum three-month rent-free period to ease the stress upon them whilst this crisis last. I would suggest that the grant of that extension should be automatic to anyone who does not make a due payment of rent on the required date during the period of the epidemic. They should be automatically granted this extension by the landlord without having to make any further application or to complete any additional paperwork.

A Lot Of People Are Leaving - COVID Shutdowns Have Turned San Francisco Into A Ghost Town - San Francisco has managed to curb the virus slightly in its city - but at what cost? Those paying sky high taxes to live in the Bay Area may soon be wondering why they are paying to live in a shut down city that state and local government officials have refused to allow to reopen due to a virus with a CDC-predicted infection fatality rate of between 0.00002 and 0.093.   The entire downtown area of the city, once vibrant with business and tourism, is now "empty" according to a new report by AP. Everything from food trucks to local workers used to be sights one would see on a daily basis in San Francisco. Now, the city has been all but abandoned. Even the tech giants that San Francisco is known for have left the city, in favor of working remotely from elsewhere. Families have moved out of the city in favor of the suburbs. Rents in the city are crashing, as we highlighted about a month ago. Tourists, once part of the lifeblood of the city, are now "scarce".  As a result, business owners wonder if the city will ever get back to normal. Evan Kidera, CEO of Señor Sisig food trucks, said: “Is it ever going to get back to normal, is it ever going to be as busy as it was — and will that be next year, or in 10 years?”This past week, part of the city re-opened as a result of virus numbers slowing. We're sure it won't be long until case numbers freak out elected officials heading into the winter, however, and everything is once again put into draconian "the government knows what's best for you"-style lockdown. San Francisco first announced its residents should stay at home in March, leading to just 12,200 virus cases and 145 deaths among 900,000 residents since then. It is one of the lowest death rates in the country. Long Beach, which is about half the size, has had about 900 more cases and 100 more deaths.But at the same time, the city has been crippled, with many residents leaving. And many are unsure whether or not the slight re-opening will do much to re-populate the city.   One tech executive, who moved out of his $4,000/month apartment last week, told AP: “San Francisco can say, ‘Hey, it’s cool to open back up.’ But what’s changed? The virus is still there, and there’s no vaccine.” He said of the move with his partner: “We’re both extreme extroverts, so the working from home thing makes us miserable.” They packed up their things and drove to an Airbnb in San Diego, instead, and are planning on making trips around the country.  30 year old Deme Peterson, another former San Francisco resident, said: “The spark of living in the city just kind of burned out a bit with everything being closed. We kind of didn’t see when it would come back to normal.” Many restaurants in the city have already closed permanently. Many others are on the brink.

Smaller American cities see big interest from urban flight - Now that more Americans can work and attend school from anywhere, they are increasingly looking to leave large urban centers for smaller, less dense cities with cheaper housing. As different real estate entities try to measure the migration, certain cities are standout destinations. Santa Barbara, California; Louisville, Kentucky; and Buffalo, New York, are seeing big net inflows. This is the number of people looking to move in minus the number of people looking to leave, according to a study of online home search results by Redfin. Santa Barbara's net inflow increased by 124% in the third quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. Louisville saw a 113% increase, and Buffalo a 107% gain. "Remote work has opened up a whole new world of possibilities when it comes to buying a home," said Redfin's chief economist, Daryl Fairweather. "Many residents of expensive areas like New York or Los Angeles couldn't manage to afford rent and save for a home at the same time. So it's no wonder that these folks are looking to buy homes in much more affordable places like Louisville and Little Rock." Redfin's top 10 list includes El Paso, Texas; Burlington, Vermont; and Tulsa, Oklahoma. Tulsa has a program, Tulsa Remote, which actually pays people to move to the city and work remotely. Most of the destination cities have relatively low housing costs compared with larger metropolitan areas. Santa Barbara is the exception. Its draw is that it is less dense than Los Angeles but close enough to commute if necessary. Looking at the larger state picture, Florida appears to be the biggest recipient of flight from New York. Nearly twice as many Redfin searchers as last year, or 22,000 more, looked to move into Florida than out in the third quarter. That is the highest net inflow since Redfin began tracking migration three years ago. Florida, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina and Nevada saw the biggest net inflow increases since last year. Another analysis from moveBuddha, a moving company search site, found the top three larger cities people were moving into in 2020 were Denver, Austin, Texas and Portland, Oregon. Seattle had been in the top three in 2019 but dropped far down the list, likely due to high prices and its high rate of Covid-19 early on. The top cities people moved out of: New York, San Francisco and Chicago.

  Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 23% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.  This graph shows CME framing futures through Oct 30th.  This is down sharply from late August, but still up 23% year-over-year.There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Clearly there was a surge in demand for lumber mid-year, but the mills are now catching up.

 2020 breaks annual gun sale records, October sees 60 percent jump from 2019 - This year has broken annual gun sale records for the past seven months, according to gun data analysis released on Monday. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) released its analysis from FBI data on Monday, showing that October broke the record for the most gun purchases of any previous October included in the examination. NSSF reports that more than 1.7 million background checks were conducted for the sale of a firearm last month, an increase of 60.1 percent compared to last October's more than 1.1 million. The group determined that every month in 2020 since March has “been the strongest of that month ever recorded.” This year’s statistics on background checks for the sale of a firearm has already surpassed the previous annual record set in 2016. In 2020 so far, 17.2 million background checks for firearm sales have been completed, compared to 2016’s 15.7 million and 2019’s almost 13.2 million. Another group, Small Arms Analytics and Forecasting (SAAF), which analyzes the same set of data, estimated that October saw 1.9 million sales – a 65 percent increase from October 2019. SAAF has also reported that 2020 has already broken the annual record in gun sales, estimating 18.6 units have been sold. The FBI’s database cannot be analyzed as is because “large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales,” according to SAAF. The gun sales come during a year of unrest in the U.S. after protests for racial justice erupted across the country over in the summer. The reports also came out one day before Election Day as some worry the results could spark further protests.

October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.2 Million SAAR - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 16.21 million SAAR in October 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 0.5% from the September sales rate, and down 3.3% from October 2019. This was below the consensus estimate of 16.5 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for October (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month.Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 3.3% from last year.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.21 million SAAR. Sales-to-date are down 17.3% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. In 2019, there were 14.48 million light vehicle sales through October.  In 2020, there have been 11.97 million sales.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Rise 0.4% In September  A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed an unexpected increase in U.S. wholesale inventories in the month of September. The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose by 0.4 percent in September after climbing by 0.5 percent in August. Economists had expected inventories to edge down by 0.1 percent. The unexpected increase in wholesale inventories came as inventories of non-durable goods advanced by 0.7 percent, while inventories of durable goods inched up by 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, the report said wholesale sales crept up by 0.1 percent in September after jumping by 1.2 percent in August. A 0.7 percent increase in sales of durable goods was partly offset by a 0.5 percent decrease in sales of non-durable goods. The inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers subsequently came in at 1.31 in September, unchanged from the previous month.

U.S. wholesale inventories revised higher in September  (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories were higher than initially estimated in September as sales barely rose, government data showed on Friday. The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories gained 0.4% in September, instead of dipping 0.1% as estimated last month. Stocks at wholesalers increased 0.5% in August. The component of wholesale inventories that goes into the calculation of gross domestic product rose 0.4% in September. Inventories were down 3.9% in September from a year earlier. Gross domestic product rebounded at a historic 33.1% annualized growth rate in the third quarter. That followed a 31.4% rate of contraction in the second quarter, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. Inventories contributed to GDP growth last quarter after being a drag for five straight quarters. Stocks of motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3% in September. Sales at wholesalers edged up 0.1% in September after increasing 1.2% in August. At September’s sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.31 months to clear shelves, unchanged from August.

AAR: October Rail Carloads down 6.6% YoY, Intermodal Up 10.0% YoY -- From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Back in April 2020, when the U.S. economy was basically in a coma, U.S. intermodal originations averaged 219,085 units per week. That was the fewest for any month in more than seven years and the fewest for April in ten years. Back then, no one would have thought that six months later, in October 2020, U.S. railroads would have their best intermodal month in history. Yet that’s where we are: U.S. railroads originated an average of 292,469 containers and trailers per week in October 2020, more than ever before and up a stunning 33.5% over April 2020.  This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020: Total U.S. carloads are trending higher, but at a much slower pace than in July and August. U.S. railroads originated an average of 228,193 total carloads per week in October 2020, the most since February 2020 but down 6.6% from October 2019. The 6.6% year-over-year decline is the smallest since the pandemic began.  For the first 10 months of 2020, total carloads were 9.48 million, down 14.5% (1.61 million carloads) from the first 10 months of 2019.  The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers):  In the 31 years from 1989 to 2019, October was the top U.S. rail intermodal month (in terms of average weekly originations) 25 times. This year will make 26. In October 2020, U.S. railroads originated an average of 292,469 containers and trailers per week, up 10.0% over October 2019 and the highest weekly average for any month in history. (The previous record was 289,994 in June 2018.) The weekly average in October 2020 was 33.5% higher than in April 2020, when they averaged just 219,085 units. That’s the biggest six-month gain in history. Few would have expected that six months ago. Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic, and intermodal has come back strong.

Trade Deficit Decreased to $63.9 Billion in September - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.9 billion in September, down $3.2 billion from $67.0 billion in August, revised. September exports were $176.4 billion, $4.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $240.2 billion, $1.2 billion more than August imports.Both exports and imports increased in September. Exports are down 16% compared to September 2019; imports are down 6.5% compared to September 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months. Oil imports averaged $37.59 per barrel in September, up from $37.43 per barrel in August, and down from $53.10 in September 2019. The trade deficit with China decreased to $29.7 billion in September, from $31.6 billion in September 2019.

U.S. factory orders rise solidly; outlook uncertain (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods increased solidly in September, but further gains could be limited amid an anticipated slowdown in consumer spending as government money for businesses and workers impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic runs out. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that factory orders rose 1.1% after climbing 0.6% in August. Orders were boosted by increased demand for primary metals, computers and electronic products as well as motor vehicles and fabricated metal products. But orders for machinery, furniture and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would rise 1.0% in September. Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of U.S. economic activity, has been boosted by a shift in spending from services toward goods as Americans set up home offices and remote classrooms and avoid public transportation because of the coronavirus. A survey on Monday from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday showed its measure of national factory activity raced to its highest level in nearly two years in October, with new orders surging to their highest level in almost 17 years. But the strong manufacturing sentiment likely overstates the health of the sector. A report from the Federal Reserve last month showed production at factories dropped 0.3% in September and remained 6.4% below its pre-pandemic level. Unfilled orders at factories fell 0.2% in September after declining 0.6% in August. Inventories at factories were unchanged for a second straight month, while shipments of manufactured goods rose 0.3%. The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, increased 1.0% in September, as reported last month. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the GDP report, rose 0.5%. They were previously reported to have gained 0.3%. Business spending on equipment rebounded at a 70.1% rate in the third quarter, ending five straight quarters of decline.

ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 59.3 in October --The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in October. The PMI was at 59.3% in October, up from 55.4% in September. The employment index was at 53.2%, up from 49.6% last month, and the new orders index was at 67.9%, up from 60.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 59.3%; October 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® "The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 59.3 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the September reading of 55.4 percent and the highest since September 2018 (59.3 percent). This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the sixth month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 67.9 percent, an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the September reading of 60.2 percent. The Production Index registered 63 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the September reading of 61 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.7 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher compared to the September reading of 55.2 percent. TheEmployment Index registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the September reading of 49.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 60.5 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from the September figure of 59 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.9 percent; 4.8 percentage points higher than the September reading of 47.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent, up 2.7 percentage points compared to the September reading of 62.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 55.7 percent; an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the September reading of 54.3 percent. The Imports Index registered 58.1 percent, a 4.1-percentage point increase from the September reading of 54 percent.  Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was above expectations and the employment index moved above 50.  This suggests manufacturing expanded at a faster pace in October than in September.

Markit Manufacturing Improves in October - The October US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.4, up 0.2 from the 53.2 final September figure.Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:“With clues being sought as to whether the economy can sustain its recovery after rebounding from lockdowns, the rise in the PMI in October is encouraging news. It’s inevitable that the pace of economic expansion will weaken after the surge seen in the third quarter, but the strength of the PMI hints at a recovery for which the underlying trend continues to strengthen at the start of the fourth quarter.“Producers of investment goods such as business equipment and machinery are leading the upturn in a welcome sign of rising business confidence and corporate investment, but it was worrying to see consumer goods producers report weakened order book growth, reflecting rising virus-related worries. Going forward, much will naturally depend on the extent to which the economy can remain open and functioning in the face of rising virus case numbers.” [Press Release]Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (see our full article on this series here).

ISM Services Index Decreased to 56.6% in October -- The October ISM Services index was at 56.6%, down from 57.8% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.1%, from 51.8%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.  From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 56.6%; October 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®: Business Activity Index at 61.2%; New Orders Index at 58.8%; Employment Index at 50.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 56.2% .  "The Services PMI™ registered 56.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the September reading of 57.8 percent. This reading represents a fifth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 129 months.  This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index. This was below the consensus forecast, and the employment index was barely above 50.

Markit Services PMI: "Business activity expands at fastest pace since April 2015" - The October US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 56.9 percent, up 2.3 from the final September estimate of 54.6. The Investing.com consensus was for 56.0 percent.Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:“Growth of business activity accelerated markedly in October, indicating that the underlying health of the US economy continued to recover at the start of the fourth quarter. While fourth quarter GDP will invariably fail to match the strong rebound seen in the third quarter, the economy looks to be continuing to grow at an above-trend rate.“Encouragingly, future business optimism showed a record surge, pulling prospects for the year ahead up to the highest for more than two years. Hopes of a brighter outlook were pinned on a vaccine ending the COVID-19 pandemic over the coming year and additional stimulus supporting the economy in the meantime.” [Press Release]  Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

Heading into election day, at least 30 million workers are being hurt by the coronavirus recession -EPI Blog by Heidi Shierholz -One of the most frequent questions I’ve gotten in the last few months is, “How many workers are being hurt by the coronavirus recession?” There is a huge amount of confusion about this because two major, completely separate, government data sets that address this question are reporting very different numbers. Specifically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the official number of unemployed workers in September, from the Current Population Survey, was 12.6 million (September is the latest data available; October numbers will be released this Friday). But during the reference week for the September monthly unemployment figure—the week ending September 12—the Department of Labor (DOL) reported that there were a total of 26.5 million people claiming unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. The UI number is compiled by DOL from reports it receives from state unemployment insurance agencies. What is going on? In a nutshell: The BLS official number of unemployed workers vastly understates the number of workers who have faced the negative consequences of the coronavirus recession, and DOL’s UI number overstates the number of workers receiving unemployment benefits. Let’s first look at UI. An important way the numbers coming out of DOL are overstating the number of people receiving UI benefits right now has to do with delays in the processing of applications (delays caused by the overwhelming number of applications UI agencies have received during the COVID-19 crisis). When a worker’s benefits are delayed, they are paid retroactively. This is as it should be, but it causes reporting problems. Say a worker claims UI benefits not just for their most recent week of unemployment, but also for the six prior weeks. That worker will show up in the data not as one person who claimed seven weeks of benefits, but as seven claims. Nobody knows how extensive that problem is, but this New York Times articlehas good information on it. Another issue is that state UI agencies have been the target of fraud—not individuals filing one or two fraudulent claims, but sophisticated cyberattacks involving extensive identity theft and the overriding of security systems. Note: None of this negates the fact that the expansions of unemployment insurance in the CARES Act were an enormous success! These expansions have been a lifeline to millions and a crucial boost to the economy.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 751,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 751,000 to 758,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 787,750 to 791,000. This does not include the 362,883 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 359,044 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 787,000. The previous week was revised up. The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week). At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined. Continued claims decreased to 7,285,000 (SA) from 7,823,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note: There are an additional 9,332,610 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 10,324,779 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  An additional 3,961,060 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,683,496 the previous week.

Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues -  This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims continued their decline, also to a new pandemic low.  On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by only 543 to 738,166, just above October 3’s revised pandemic low 731,249. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 7,000 to 751,000, a new pandemic low (which was also last week’s number before revision this week). The 4 week moving average also decreased by 4,000 to 787,000, also a new pandemic low. Here is the close up since the end of July - for comparison, remember that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April:   Continuing claims (which lag initial claims typically by a few weeks to several months) on a non-adjusted basis declined by 537,898 to 6,951,731. With seasonal adjustment they declined by 538,000 to 7,285,000. Both of these are new pandemic lows:  Continuing claims are now about 70% below their worst level from the beginning of May, but are still about 900,000 - 1,300,000 higher than their worst levels of the Great Recession.  The very slow improvement in layoffs has generally continued, similar to the same slow continued improvement in most of the “weekly indicators” I update each Saturday.  I continue to harbor serious doubts whether that will continue to be the case as cold weather forces some venues like outdoor dining to close again, and the pandemic continues to surge yet again, albeit with lower levels of deaths than last spring.

Over a million people still filed initial unemployment claims last week with no COVID-19 relief in sight -EPI - Another 1.1 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits last week, including 751,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 363,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). PUA is the federal program that provides up to 39 weeks of benefits for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like the self-employed. Without congressional action, PUA will expire in less than two months (more on that below).The 1.1 million who applied for UI last week was little changed (a decline of 3,000) from the prior week’s revised figures. Last week was the 33rd straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. (If that comparison is restricted to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession—initial claims last week were still 3.6 times where they were a year ago.)Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits, but this crisis has gone on much longer than that. That means many workers are exhausting their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 538,000, from 7.8 million to 7.3 million.For now, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. However, PEUC is set to expire in less than two months (more on that below).In the latest data available for PEUC (the week ending October 17), PEUC rose by 278,000, from 3.7 million to 4.0 million, offsetting only 46% of the 602,000 decline in continuing claims for regular state benefits for the same week. The small increase in PEUC relative to the decline in continuing claims for regular state UI is likely due in large part to administrative delays workers are facing getting on to PEUC. Further, many of the roughly 2 million workers who were on UI before the recession began, or who are in states with less than the standard 26 weeks of regular state benefits, are exhausting PEUC benefits. Nearly a million workers (972,000) had exhausted PEUC by the end of September, the latest exhaustion data available in most states (see column C43 in form ETA 5159 for PEUC here). Department of Labor (DOL) data suggest that right now, 22.8 million workers are either on unemployment benefits or have applied recently and are waiting to get approved (see Figure A). However, that number is an overestimate. For one thing, initial claims for regular state UI and PUA should be nonoverlapping—that is how DOL has directed state agencies to report them—but some individuals are erroneously being counted as being in both programs. An even bigger issue is that states are including retroactive payments in their continuing PUA claims, which would also lead to double counting. All this means nobody knows exactly how many people are receiving UI benefits right now, which is another reminder that we need to invest heavily in our UI infrastructure and technology.

 ADP: Private Employment increased 365,000 in October -- From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 365,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  “The labor market continues to add jobs, yet at a slower pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and cohead of the ADP Research Institute. “Although the pace is slower, we’ve seen employment gains across all industries and sizes.  This was below the consensus forecast for 650 thousand private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 600 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in October. Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

October Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined. ... In October, the unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage point to 6.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.5 million to 11.1 million. Both measures have declined for 6 consecutive months but are nearly twice their February levels (3.5 percent and 5.8 million, respectively). ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 4,000 from +1,489,000 to +1,493,000, and the change for September was revised up by 11,000 from +661,000 to +672,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined was 15,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In October, the year-over-year change was negative 9.18 million jobs.Total payrolls increased by 638 thousand in October.Payrolls for August and September were revised up 15 thousand combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the "Great Recession". The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.7% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 57.4% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in October to 6.9%. This was close to consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 15,000 combined.

October jobs report: extremely strong monthly gains overall, but at this rate still another 18 months from full jobs recovery - HEADLINES:

• 638,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report was 2,243,000 jobs gained, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate declined -1.0% from 7.9% to 6.9%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate declined -0.7% from 12.8% to 12.1%, compared with the January low of 6.9%.
• Those on temporary layoff decreased -1,432,000 to 3,205,000.
• Permanent job losers decreased by 72,000 to 3,684,000.
• August was revised upward by 4,000. September was also revised upward by 11,000 respectively, for a net gain of 15,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
• the average manufacturing workweek rose  0.3 hours from 40.2 hours to 40.5 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI and will be a strong positive.
• Manufacturing jobs rose by 38,000. Manufacturing has still lost -621,000  jobs in the past 8 months, or 4.8% of the total. 55% of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
• Construction jobs rose by 84,000. Even so, in the past 7 months -294,000 construction jobs have been lost, 3.8% of the total. About 75% of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 18,000. In the past 8 months there have still been -6,400 lost jobs, or about 0.8% of the total.
• temporary jobs rose by 108,700. Since February, there have still been -342,700 jobs lost, or 11.7% of all temporary help jobs.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined by -52,000 to 2.5 million, compared with April’s total of 14.283 million.
• Professional and business employment rose by 208,000, which is still -1,149,000, or about 5.3% below its February peak.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.05 from $24.77 to $24.82, which is a gain of 3.6% in the 8 months since the pandemic began. Gains had previously reflected that job losses were primarily among lower wage earners, who have been disproportionately recalled to work. That we have increased employment and increased wages as well is a very positive development.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 1.2%. In the past 8 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -6.3%.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.4%. In the past 8 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -3.0%. Close to 80% of the loss from February to April has been made back up.
• Full time jobs were responsible for 1.0 million of the gain in the household report.
• Part time jobs were responsible for 1.2 million of the gain in the household report.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons increased by 383,000 to 6.683 million. This is still an increase since February of 2,365,000.
• Important note: There was a decline of 268,000 in government jobs. This included -147,000 census workers and -159,000 teachers!

SUMMARY:  This was an extremely strong report. About the only negative was the big decline in education jobs, which may have been a quirk of seasonality.  Everything else was positive.  The household report’s gain of over 2 million jobs was responsible for most of the good news, including the decline in the un- and under-employment rates, and gains in both full and part-time jobs, as well as gains in aggregate hours and payrolls. Further, all of the leading jobs sectors showed gains. This bodes well for the months ahead.  Nevertheless, only a little over half of all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic have come back, and the rate of increase since June has slowed to a *relative* crawl. It would take another 18 months, at the rate of this month’s job gains, to get back to the number of jobs that existed in February.

Employment in October: Further Deceleration - Menzie Chinn - The employment release confirms a deceleration in employment, presaging deceleration in the other macro indicators. Government employment is down, and not solely because of the winding-down of the decennial Census. Rather, state and local government employment is declining, and is now 6.8% below NBER peak level.  Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (black), civilian employment (red), both in 000’s, s.a.. Source: BLS via FRED. Civilian employment actually increased m/m in October, but that series is particularly volatile. Focusing on the nonfarm payroll number, m/m growth (not annualized, in logs) has fallen from 7% to 6% to 3% to 2%, from July to October.  Figure 2: Government employment (blue), government employment ex.-Census temporary workers (brown), both in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations. Figure 3: Government employment at state and local levels (teal), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.   In the wake of the 2007-09 recession, restrained government spending at state and local levels accounted for a lot of the slow recovery. We are at risk of repeating that sorry story, unless the Federal government provides further fiscal aid to the states and localities.

October jobs: better than expected by a long way to go - Jared Bernstein -  Payrolls grew by 638,000 last month, and the unemployment rate fell sharply, by a full percentage point, to 6.9 percent. The report reveals a job market that’s healing, but at a slower pace than earlier in the year and with a long way to go to get back to full employment. Even with the large drop, the October jobless rate remains twice that of the pre-crisis rate.  Government jobs fell (by 268,000) last month, but because this is partially related the cutting back of decennial Census jobs, a clearer signal of underlying labor demand comes from the private sector, which added 906,000 jobs. That’s a decent clip, but in May and June, private sector gains rebounded at a pace of 4 million per month; since then, the pace has slowed to 1 million. At this rate, the private sector will be back to its pre-crises peak around late summer of 2021.  The figure below shows total and private payrolls. The remaining gap is clear–10 million overall and 9 million for private–as is the slower pace of gains.   This next figure shows the share of losses left to make back for many groups. The last two bars show that jobs are about halfway back. The first bar shows that because unemployment rate grew over 11 points from its low point to its high point–3.5 to 14.7 percent–and has since clawed back almost 7 points, it has made up 70 percent of its lost ground.  One important take from the figure is the slower progress by Black people. For both unemployment and employment rates, they lag other groups, having made back just half of their losses. This is an often-seen pattern for persons of color in weak labor markets, as they face labor market barriers, including racial discrimination, whose impact is accentuated in periods of weaker demand.  Another worrisome sign in today’s report comes from the extended duration of unemployment for some jobless workers. About a third of the unemployed are now long-term unemployed (searching for work for at least six months), compared to 4 percent in April. This reflects that when this initial shutdown occurred, many workers went on temporary layoff, and, in fact, the bulk of the decline in unemployment last month came from these temporary layoffs getting back to work. But this means that the folks still left on the jobless rolls are in for potentially long spells of unemployment.  This growth in people stuck in long-term unemployment is particularly problematic because extended unemployment insurance benefits are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. Re-extending these benefits and enhancing the dollar value of the claims should be policy makers’ first order of business in coming weeks.  Turning to sectoral analysis, almost 70 percent of private industries added jobs last month, a relatively high share given the spiking coronavirus. Notable job gains in this regard can be seen in leisure/hospitality, which includes restaurants and bars, up about 200,000 last month and 400,000 over the past two months. Of course, it is very possible this gains attenuate in coming months given the sharply rising virus caseloads. While the relationship between the virus and commerce is far from one-to-one, meaning we don’t see March/April-type shutdowns in places where caseloads are climbing, we should be on the lookout for negative effects on jobs in sensitive, face-to-face services. Finally, especially given lower-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve, Congress needs to get back to the business of providing relief to the millions of workers who still face considerable hardship. State and local budgets are still much reduced, forcing layoffs, and even while the the labor market is improving, it remains far from providing the income vulnerable families need to pay rents, mortgages, child care, and to meet their nutritional needs.

Comments on October Employment Report – McBride- The October employment report was at expectations, and employment for the previous two months were revised up slightly. Government employment declined 268 thousand in October.   The job losses at the Federal level were due toletting go temporary decennial workers, but 130 thousand jobs were lost at state and local governments.  These losses could increase sharply if there is no disaster relief for the states.  I'll have more on this. Leisure and hospitality added another 271 thousand jobs in October, following 4.56 million jobs added in May through September. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.3 million jobs in March and April, so about 58% of those jobs were added back in the May through October period. Earlier: October Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate.   In October, the year-over-year employment change was minus 9.18 million jobs. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the October report. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg)This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.In October, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.684 million from 3.756 million in September.  Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery.The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October 81.2% to from 80.9% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.0% from 75.0%. Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 243 thousand workers (NSA) net in October.   Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).This might be distorted this year by a combination of seasonal hiring - and some bounce back in employment from the shutdowns earlier this year. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 6.684 million from 6.300 million in September.These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 12.1% in October. This is down from the record high in April 22.8% for this measure since 1994.This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 3.556 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job.This increased sharply in October - since the largest number of layoffs were in April - and will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was at expectations, and the previous two months were revised up 15,000 combined.  The headline unemployment rate decreased to 6.9%.   However the number of part time workers increased, and the number of long term unemployed increased sharply. 

What the next president inherits: More than 25 million workers are being hurt by the coronavirus downturn - EPI Blog by Heidi Shierholz -  Some of the most frequent questions I’ve gotten in the last few months are, “How many workers are being hurt by the coronavirus recession?” and “What kind of economy will the next president inherit?” There is a huge amount of confusion about the number of workers impacted because two major, completely separate, government data sets that address this question are reporting very different numbers. Specifically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the official number of unemployed workers in October, from the Current Population Survey, was 11.1 million. But during the reference week for the October monthly unemployment figure—the week ending October 17—the Department of Labor (DOL) reported that there were a total of 21.5 million people claiming unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in all programs. The UI number is compiled by DOL from reports it receives from state unemployment insurance agencies.  What is going on? In a nutshell: The BLS official number of unemployed workers vastly understates the number of workers who have faced the negative consequences of the coronavirus recession, and DOL’s UI number overstates the number of workers receiving unemployment benefits. One straightforward way that the weekly UI numbers are higher than the monthly unemployment numbers is that the UI numbers include both Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and the monthly unemployment numbers include only the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The number of people on UI (regular state benefits, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, or Extended Benefits) for the week ending October 17 was 294,000 in Puerto Rico and 4,000 in the Virgin Islands, for a total of nearly 300,000 UI claims outside of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Given the problems with the UI data, I estimate the number of workers affected by the coronavirus recession using the monthly unemployment data from BLS. As mentioned above, the official number of unemployed in October—11.1 million—is a vast undercount of the number of workers being harmed. Here are the missing factors:

• Some workers are being misclassified as “employed, not at work” instead of unemployed. BLS has discussed at length that there have been many workers who have been misclassified as “employed, not at work” during this pandemic who should be classified as “temporarily unemployed.” In October, there were 0.6 million such workers. (Wonky note: Some of these workers may not have had the option of being classified as “temporarily unemployed,” meaning they weren’t technically misclassified, but all of them were out at work because of the virus.)
• Some workers who are out of work as a result of the virus are being counted as having dropped out of the labor force instead of as unemployed. In order for a person without a job to be counted as unemployed, they must be available to work and actively seeking work. However, during the COVID-19 crisis, many people who are out of work as a result of the crisis do not meet those criteria. For example, many workers are out of work because of care responsibilities as a result of COVID-19 (e.g., a young child’s school being remote, or an elderly parent’s day care closing). These workers would not be counted as officially unemployed but are nevertheless out of work because of the virus. To calculate how many there are, I estimate what the labor force level would be if the labor force participation rate had not dropped since February—the month before the pandemic hit the U.S. labor market—by multiplying the February labor force participation rate by the October population level. I then subtract this “counterfactual” labor force from the actual labor force. This yields an additional 4.5 million people out of the labor force as a result of the virus.
• The number of officially unemployed is undercounted, even in normal times (and is probably worse now). Rigorous research that addresses issues like the fact that survey nonresponse is nonrandom—and that missing individuals are more likely than the general population to be unemployed—find that the official unemployment rate was understating the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points at the start of 2020. Accounting for that undercount yields an additional 2.5 million unemployed workers. (This is conservative, given that there isgood evidence that this problem is likely substantially worse in the coronavirus era.)
• Millions of employed workers have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic. BLS reports that 7.0 million people who were working in October had been unable to work at some point in the last four weeks because their employer closed or lost business due to the coronavirus pandemic, and they did not receive pay for the hours they didn’t work. These workers have clearly been hurt by the coronavirus recession. (It’s worth noting that these workers represent a portion of the gap between the official unemployment numbers and the UI claims numbers, since many workers who are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay are eligible for partial UI benefits but are not unemployed.)

Adding up all but the last quantity above, that is 11.1 million + 0.6 million + 4.5 million + 2.5 million = 18.7 million workers who are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of the labor force as a result of the virus. Also adding in the 7.0 million who are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic brings the number of workers directly harmed in October by the coronavirus downturn to 25.7 million. That is more than 15% of the workforce.

Midwestern States Thrive With Fewer Virus Rules As Second Wave Arrives -  The debate between opening and closing the economy has been heated between Democrats and Republicans. President Trump has said if a second virus wave strikes, he will not close the economy. On the other hand, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said he would close the economy to mitigate the virus spread. While the debate to close or leave open the economy rages on between both political parties as record daily caseloads have been seen in the last few days, we shed light on a handful of Republican Midwestern states that have defied implementation of strict coronavirus restrictions, allowing their respective economies to thwart complete economic devastation.  Many of these states, run by Republican governors, have practically no restrictions to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Still, the strategy, so far, has paid off with fewer business closures and more hiring shown in the latest unemployment figures, according to AP News.  "For now, though, those Midwestern states have a lock atop the unemployment rankings, far below the national average rate for September of 7.9%. Nebraska leads the nation with a 3.5% unemployment rate, followed by South Dakota, Vermont, North Dakota, Iowa, and Missouri," AP said. However, there's a tradeoff between keeping the economy open, and limited coronavirus restrictions appear to be running into significant issues. These states are now recording some of the highest surges in new virus cases in the country.  Take, for example, North Dakota and South Dakota, are conservative states, have had a Laissez-faire approach to mitigate the virus spread, both are now exhibiting the most cases per capita in the U.S., along with Nebraska and Iowa.  Despite surging cases in Midwestern states, their economies have recovered much quicker than New York or major cities in California, which are liberal-run and continue to enforce some of the strictest social distancing rules, crushing SMEs. Midwestern governors were some of the first to ease lockdowns in late spring, supporting SMEs: "I've got to believe that if you shut down harder, you're going to see a more severe impact to your industries and the longer you're shut down, the harder it's going to be for those industries to rebound," Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts said. Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, who contracted the virus last month, has promoted the idea of balancing the virus and keeping the economy open. And Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has repeatedly told residents not to let the virus dominate their lives. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has said," there are consequences to what we've seen happen in other states — that shutting down businesses, stopping people's way of life has some devastating impacts. We're taking a very balanced approach."

No Indiana COVID-19 Policy Changes Post-Election, Holcomb Says - The day after a landslide reelection victory, Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb said he’s not making any changes to policy on handling COVID-19, a major point of contention on the campaign trail. There's “no truth” to rumors that Indiana will shut down again after the election, he said during a Wednesday afternoon briefing on the pandemic. That includes no changes to the state's economy, and no statewide closure of schools. Holcomb won a second term as governor on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Woody Myers, a former state health commissioner. Myers had called for tougher anti-virus actions as Indiana’s COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths and new infections climbed steeply since nearly all state restrictions were lifted in September. Alternatively, some conservatives called Holcomb’s coronavirus actions excessive and, instead, backed Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater. The governor has continued to resist calls for reinstating coronavirus limits, however, emphasizing Wednesday the preference for health officials to address virus spread at the county level and adding that “we just don’t make decisions based on politics.” “I don’t think the frustration or the the impatience with getting through COVID-19 is partisan whatsoever.” Holcomb said. “We’re making decisions based on the common good, and trying to get us through this as safely and swiftly as possible. It has zero to do with political capital or election results with me.” Indiana’s newly reported COVID-19 cases have risen to their highest single-day level of the pandemic, state health officials said Wednesday as the number of coronavirus patients being treated at Indiana hospitals also climbed to a new high. The 3,756 new coronavirus infections reported Wednesday by the Indiana State Department of Health surpassed the 3,649 new infections the state agency reported on Oct. 29.

Judge rules to limit California governor powers amid pandemic - A judge ruled on Monday to limit California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) executive powers during a pandemic.Sutter County Superior Court Judge Sarah Heckman issued a preliminary order for Newsom to stop making executive orders that could contradict state laws, after determining one of his orders was “an unconstitutional exercise of legislative power.”Her order prevents Newsom “from exercising any power under the California Emergency Services Act which amends, alters, or changes existing statutory law or makes new statutory law or legislative policy.”The judge determined that the California Emergency Services Act itself was constitutional but noted it “does not permit the Governor to amend statutes or make new statutes.”“The Governor does not have the power or authority to assume the Legislature's role of creating legislative policy and enactments,” the order says.Heckman’s order will become final in 10 days if Newsom’s team does not challenge it. She is the second judge in the county to conclude Newsom was overstepping his authority, but the ruling is contradictory to other state and federal decisions on the governor’s emergency powers during the coronavirus pandemic, The Associated Press noted. A spokesman for Newsom told The Hill that the administration does not agree with the ruling's limitations and is “evaluating next steps.”“The tentative ruling makes clear that the Governor’s statutory emergency authority is broad, and constitutional, and that the Governor has the authority, necessary in emergencies, to suspend statutes and issue orders to protect Californians,” the spokesman said.Republican state Assemblymen James Gallagher and Kevin Kiley challenged Newsom, saying he was overstepping state law with his executive orders.“This is a victory for separation of powers,” the lawmakers said in a joint statement obtained by the AP. Newsom “has continued to create and change state law without public input and without the deliberative process provided by the Legislature.”

 McKinsey, Deloitte Charge Big Bucks to States for Botched Covid Projects - Yves Smith - The Wall Street Journal has a solid report tonight on how state governments have been fleeced by major consulting firms like McKinsey and Deloitte.¹ The question one winds up asking when reading about these fiascoes is whose bright idea was it to hire big name, and even if they discounted a bit, still very pricey consultants for engagements that weren’t in their wheelhouses. “Nobody ever got fired for hiring IBM” does not apply to hiring IBM to manage a construction site.   Mind you, the world is awash with outsourcing and consulting grifting,. It’s been so extensive in the UK that we’ve been negligent in chronicling it, since it’s hit the “dog bites man” level of predictability. Nevertheless, even the numbed UK press worked up some outrage over the costly fail of outsourced contract tracing. The BMA recently published an overview of the extent of government outsourcing of its Covid responses and why they performed poorly.What is distressing about these US examples isn’t merely that they demonstrate the folly of hollowing governments and then expecting them to be able to add capacity or respond to emergencies by bringing in private sector mercenaries. It is that they also illustrate the general decline in what we’ve called organizational capacity. The consultants either have to have been utterly cynical and knew that they couldn’t deliver on the project specs and didn’t much care, or were so lacking in understanding what the required tasks were about that they arrogantly believed that simply being good at show and tell (aka PowerPoint) and recognized as smart was all it took. Nathan Tankus discussed the importance of organizational capacity in a post on the Greece bailout negotiations, explaining in some detail why the Greek government was not even remotely in a position to take over the Bank of Greece (which was really a node of the European Central Bank) or start its own central bank. What I find impossible to fathom here is how the state governments in question here failed to understand that what they needed were cadres of middle managers and experienced lower level workers with relevant expertise, not pricey symbol manipulators. What was California smoking to hire Deloitte to run call centers, particularly when there actually are firms that specialize in running outsourced call centers? Admittedly, the call center outsourcing took place in parallel to a smaller contract on a related IT system.But California was doubling down on failure. But documents obtained by Public Records Act requests suggest that Deloitte had performed poorly on its considerable work on the employment IT system over the years. From the Journal:  Deloitte clearly has “not successfully resolved [the department’s] IT challenges or modernized its system,” a letter from dozens of local lawmakers this year said. David Chiu, a Democratic member of the state’s Assembly, said it is “incredibly concerning that [the employment department] has continued to go back to a contractor that has a well-documented history of bungling unemployment insurance work, not just for California but for other states.”… But this level of client-fleecing is amateur hour compared to McKinsey. Get a load of this:  New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s office awarded McKinsey a $9.9 million contract in March to advise the state on issues related to Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. That included 18 weeks of “leadership counseling” at $42,500 a week—the contract didn’t specify who would be counseled, or what that would entail.

With 200,000 customers in the region behind on utility bills, help available for many | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - More than 200,000 utility customers in southwestern Pennsylvania are behind on their bills, with winter looming and an eight-month long pandemic-driven ban on utility shutoffs about to expire on Nov. 9. Utilities serving customers here, including Duquesne Light, Peoples Natural Gas, Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, West Penn Power, and the Pittsburgh Water & Sewer Authority, report they’re owed more than $171 million in overdue payments as of Sept. 30, a 47% increase from the same period last year. But not all of those customers are at risk of losing service. Some, whose household income is within 300% of the federal poverty line, fall into a protected group that Pennsylvania regulators decided should be exempt from shutoffs until the end of March 2021. The carve-out essentially mirrors the annual winter moratorium that starts on Dec. 1 and prohibits utilities from shutting off low-income customers for nonpayment. That applies to households at or below 250% of the federal poverty level. Still, utilities don’t know for sure how many customers fall into these protected categories. That’s, in part, because the way utilities confirm that a client has a low income is if the client volunteers this information when seeking assistance. And data shows that not all low-income customers get the help they need in paying utility bills. Of the customers served by North Shore-based Peoples Natural Gas, the utility estimates that nearly a quarter of those thought to be low income aren’t enrolled in any assistance programs for which they qualify. That’s gleaned by comparing how many low-income households the utility assumes it serves based on U.S. Census Bureau data versus how many have verified they are low income by seeking assistance through utility programs. For Downtown-based electric utility Duquesne Light, the spread is even bigger. The company reported to regulators that in 2019 less than half of the customers it estimated to be low income were actually receiving assistance. At Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania, which serves a large swath of the western and central portion of the state, and at electric utility West Penn Power, nearly a quarter of residential customers are estimated to be low income. But those who have sought assistance make up a smaller number — 16% at Columbia and 11% at West Penn.

PURA Opts for Existing Programs Over Shutoff Moratorium - The Public Utilities Regulatory Authority ruled in a virtual hearing on Friday morning that it would not renew the statewide moratorium on electricity and gas shutoffs which expired on October 1. Eversource had filed a motion to extend the moratorium on September 30. Under current regulations, an extension would have allowed Eversource to offset the cost of customers unable to pay their bills by increasing costs for paying customers. Without a moratorium, Eversource has no legal right to these funds. Eversource representatives at the hearing said that they wanted to have the moratorium in place for the sake of “clarity and alignment,” at a time when many Connecticut residents are unable to make payments due to economic fallout from the COVID pandemic. According Eversource Vice President of Operations Jessica Cain, enrollment in payment programs has nearly doubled since the start of the pandemic. Eversource currently has 65,000 individuals enrolled in payment arrangements or matching payment programs. Cain said that 125,000 households currently have a past due balance of greater than $125, leaving them eligible to receive a disconnect notice. State Sen. Norm Needleman, D-Essex, who chairs the Energy and Technology Committee in the state legislature, said he believes that the decision will be revisited before the Winter Protection Program’s no-shut-off policy is lifted next March. According to PURA Chair Marissa Gillett, 15 states never put in place a shut off moratorium and 18 others have already allowed their moratoria to lapse. Companies in those states, she said, voluntarily decided not to shut off power for any of their customers.

Louisiana voters reject new tax break in a landslide, after opponents put on full-court press - Louisiana lawmakers earlier this year voted overwhelmingly to ask voters to add a new tax break to the state constitution that would allow manufacturers to negotiate lower tax bills with local governments. On Tuesday, voters rejected the idea in a landslide. All 64 parishes, including GOP and Democratic strongholds, voted against it. Almost as many Louisiana voters rejected the proposed Constitutional Amendment 5, as it was known, 1.22 million, as voted for President Donald Trump, 1.25 million. “You’re talking about liberal, conservative, Black, White, Democrat, Republican, Independent, it failed by a landslide,” said Edgar Cage, an organizer with Together Louisiana, which rallied against the amendment. “This should be a clear message to the Legislature that the taxpayers, the people of Louisiana are tired of these corporate tax exemptions and giveaways.” Can Louisiana afford Constitutional Amendment 5 after years of manufacturing tax breaks? Opponents of the measure put on a full-court press to defeat it. Backed by hundreds of thousands of dollars from teachers unions and progressive organizations, activists blanketed the TV airwaves with ads. An army of volunteers phone-banked and canvassed in the state’s major metro areas. On Tuesday morning, Khalid Hudson, a Together Louisiana organizer, hopped in a white Chevy Silverado at City Park in Baton Rouge as a volunteer riding shotgun used a PA system to get several dozen supporters lined up behind them. A caravan took shape, as a line of cars and bicycles adorned with signs that said “No on 5” and “Stop corporate welfare” followed Hudson on a route that took them past a host of precincts in predominantly Black areas of Baton Rouge that saw low turnout in the early voting period. A crop of volunteers followed on foot for the journey across Old South and north Baton Rouge.

Pritzker Says Madigan Should Leave As Head Of Illinois Democratic Party – — Arguing Republicans were able to use Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan “as their foil” in this year’s elections, Gov. JB Pritzker said Thursday it’s time for new leadership for the Democratic Party of Illinois. Pritzker said he agrees with U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin that Republicans were able to use the controversies recently swirling around Madigan to their advantage on Election Day, when Illinois voters rejected Pritzker’s signature proposal to allow for a graduated income tax, and voted out an Illinois Supreme Court justice who has received millions of dollars in campaign cash from funds controlled by Madigan. A handful of Republican challengers also defeated Democratic incumbents in the Illinois House. Madigan has been implicated in a sweeping bribery case against utility giant ComEd. Earlier this year, federal prosecutors accused ComEd of a yearslong bribery scheme that sought to curry Madigan’s favor in advancing legislation relaxing state regulation of ComEd’s rates by directing $1.3 million in payments to the speaker’s associates. ComEd acknowledged it stood to benefit by more than $150 million from that legislation. Madigan has not been charged with a crime and has denied any wrongdoing, but at the request of Illinois House Republicans, a special House Investigating Committee has launched a probe into possible disciplinary charges against Madigan. In an interview with WTTW on Wednesday, Durbin said the Democratic Party of Illinois “paid a heavy price for the speaker’s chairmanship” on Election Day due to the controversies swirling around Madigan. “Candidates who had little or no connection with him whatsoever were being tarred as Madigan allies who are behind corruption and so forth and so on,” he said. “It was really disconcerting to see the price that we paid on that. I hope he takes that to heart and understands that his presence as chairman of our party has not helped.”

Priests Perform Exorcisms In US Cities To Cleanse Streets Of “Demons” After Protests - Roman Catholic archbishops in two different cities, Portland and San Francisco, have performed exorcism rituals in the middle of the streets hoping to get rid of any evil spirits that might have been left around from the recent protests. In Portland, Oregon, Archbishop Alexander Sample led a procession of more than 200 people to a city park on Oct 17 as a part of his public exorcism, according to Oregon Live. On the same day, San Francisco Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone performed a similar ritual outside of a Catholic church in San Rafael, where protesters previously toppled a statue of Father Junipero Serra. It is not clear if the two events were connected or if it was just a coincidence that they took place on the same day. “We pray that God might purify this place of evil spirits, that he might purify the hearts of those who perpetrated this blasphemy,” Cordileone said. Father Junipero Serra was a missionary priest who lived in the 18th century. Serra is an extremely controversial figure due to the violent campaign that he waged to convert Native Americans to Catholicism. Cordileone used Latin in many of his incantations, telling local reporters that “Latin tends to be more effective against the devil because he doesn’t like the language of the church.” These rituals are very strange, even according to religious scholars, who say that nothing like this has ever happened in the US. Religious studies professor Andrew Chesnut of Virginia Commonwealth University recalled that a somewhat similar ritual took place in Mexico in 2015, when some high-ranking Catholic clergy performed an exorcism to expel demons across the whole country. Exorcisms are more traditionally performed on people.

 Pastor Who Urinated On Woman During Flight Was Drunk And On Ambien  --A North Carolina minister has been forced to step down from his position at his former church after news spread online that he urinated on a female passenger during a flight from Las Vegas to Detroit on October 12th. Daniel Chalmers resigned from his position at the Catch The Fire church in Raleigh, North Carolina, following the controversy.The church’s lead pastors, Murray and Ash Smith told the newspaper that Chalmers “expressed grief and horror” about the incident, but referred to the minister’s actions as “disorderly conduct” in a later statement.“We were saddened to hear of the news yesterday involving one of our non-pastor employees in a disorderly conduct incident earlier this month. We take these matters very seriously. This behavior is not a reflection of Catch The Fire, our leadership, and its members,” the statement read.According to media reports, Chalmer was drunk and under the influence of Ambien during the time of the incident. He reportedly had a blood-alcohol level of .17.The victim, Alicia Beverly, told police that she woke up on the plane around 2:45 a.m. to find a man urinating on her.“It felt warm, like on the side of me, I felt something warm. I jump up and I seen his private area out and I screamed and that woke everybody up. By that time I actually looked at him and I see him shake himself off and I’m like this man just peed on me! I looked and there was a puddle of pee in the seats!” Beverly said.Chalmers denied the accusation but was escorted off the plane and taken into custody once the plane landed. He was then interviewed by an FBI agent and cited or assault before he was released.

Oregon police investigating decapitated deer heads left near pro-Biden, Black Lives Matter signs --An Oregon police department last week launched an investigation into decapitated deer heads left near a sign backing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and a Black Lives Matter sign.The Lake Oswego Police Department said it received two reports of deer heads near signs, according to a Friday press release. The first was reported at 9:19 a.m. near a sign backing Biden and his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), while the other was reported at 12:23 p.m. next to a Black Lives Matter sign in front of a home, according to the release and NBC News. Sgt. Tom Hamann, a department spokesman, told The Hill that police are investigating "all possibilities, including that it is bias related."A police spokesperson told NBC News in an email Monday that no suspects have been arrested.Hamann told Oregon Live that police will look into the incidents as potential bias crimes but didn’t want to make assumptions.“Considering how contentious everything is with the election and everything else, people are losing their minds about it and drawing conclusions,” Hamann said. “We, of course, have to be careful not to do that and follow the fact where they lead us.” The sergeant also said the department has not ruled out animals leaving the heads by the signs after hunters disposed of them incorrectly.

 27 Missing Children Found In Virginia During Most Recent Rescue Operation - In recent weeks, multiple government agencies have been carrying out operations around the country to rescue missing children, many of whom are victims of human trafficking. On Friday, The Justice Department issued a press release announcing that they just wrapped up a five-day law enforcement operation that they called “Operation Find Our Children.”  In Virginia, authorities found and rescued 27 missing children, and human trafficking does seem to be involved in many of the cases, but police did not announce any arrests. The mission was led by deputy U.S. Marshals from the Eastern and Western Districts of Virginia, along with members of the U.S. Marshals Service Capital Area Regional Fugitive Task Force and special agents, police officers, and detectives from numerous federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies, as well as more than 60 law enforcement investigators.In addition to the law enforcement officers on the task force, there were also more than 50 employees from the Virginia Department of Social Services and a team of medical professionals and experts from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC). Since 2005, the U.S. Marshals Service has recovered more than 2,000 missing children. Over the past five years, the agency has recovered missing children in 75 percent of the cases it has received. Of those recovered, 72 percent were recovered within seven days, according to the press release.Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey A. Rosen said that this is just the most recent operation of many where the US Marshals service rescued missing children.Rosen says that this year alone the agency has rescued more than 440 children in Georgia, Ohio, Indiana, Louisiana, and other states. Just last week, a massive law enforcement operation in Ohio called Operation Autumn Hope has resulted in the arrest of 179 people under suspicion of human trafficking, and the rescue of 109 victims, 45 of whom were missing children. Some victims were as young as 14 or 15 years old. The victims were referred to social services, according to the Ohio Attorney General’s Office.

Vitamin D levels during pregnancy linked with child IQ  - Vitamin D is a critical nutrient and has many important functions in the body. A mother's vitamin D supply is passed to her baby in utero and helps regulate processes including brain development. A study published today in The Journal of Nutrition showed that mothers' vitamin D levels during pregnancy were associated with their children's IQ, suggesting that higher vitamin D levels in pregnancy may lead to greater childhood IQ scores. The study also identified significantly lower levels of vitamin D levels among Black pregnant women. Melissa Melough, the lead author of the study and research scientist in theDepartment of Child Health, Behavior, and Development at Seattle Children's Research Institute, says vitamin D deficiency is common among the general population as well as pregnant women, but notes that Black women are at greater risk. Melough says she hopes the study will help health care providers address disparities among women of color and those who are at higher risk for vitamin D deficiency. "Melanin pigment protects the skin against sun damage, but by blocking UV rays, melanin also reduces vitamin D production in the skin. Because of this, we weren't surprised to see high rates of vitamin D deficiency among Black pregnant women in our study. Even though many pregnant women take a prenatal vitamin, this may not correct an existing vitamin D deficiency," Melough said. "I hope our work brings greater awareness to this problem, shows the long-lasting implications of prenatal vitamin D for the child and their neurocognitive development, and highlights that there are certain groups providers should be paying closer attention to. Wide-spread testing of vitamin D levels is not generally recommended, but I think health care providers should be looking out for those who are at higher risk, including Black women."

 Teens who participate in extracurriculars, get less screen time, have better mental health - A new study from UBC researchers finds that teens, especially girls, have better mental health when they spend more time taking part in extracurricular activities, like sports and art, and less time in front of screens. The study, published in the journal Preventive Medicine, found that spending less than two hours per day of recreational screen time (such as browsing the internet, playing video games, and using social media) was associated with higher levels of life satisfaction and optimism, and lower levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms, especially among girls, the researchers found. Similarly, extracurricular participation was associated with better mental health outcomes. "Although we conducted this study before the COVID-19 pandemic, the findings are especially relevant now when teens may be spending more time in front of screens in their free time if access to extracurricular activities, like sports and arts programs is restricted due to COVID-19,"  "Our findings highlight extracurricular activities as an asset for teens' mental wellbeing. Finding safe ways for children and teens to continue to participate in these activities during current times may be a way to reduce screen time and promote mental health and wellbeing." Data for this study was drawn from a population-level survey involving 28,712 Grade 7 students from 365 schools in 27 school districts across B.C. The researchers examined recreational screen time such as playing video games, watching television, browsing the internet, as well as participating in outdoor extracurricular activities such as sport and art programs after school. They then compared its association with positive and negative mental health indicators. Highlights of the study's findings include the following:

• Adolescents who participated in extracurricular activities were significantly less likely to engage in recreational screen-based activities for two or more hours after school
• Taking part in extracurricular activities was associated with higher levels of life satisfaction and optimism, and lower levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms
• Longer screen time (more than two hours a day) was associated with lower levels of life satisfaction and optimism, and higher levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms
• Differences among boys and girls, with longer screen time negatively affecting girls' mental health more significantly than boys
• Among both boys and girls, however, mental health was strongest when teens both participated in extracurricular activities and spent less than two hours on screen time

Official academics downplay the risks of school reopenings as pandemic rages across the US - Last month, the Atlantic published an article by Professor Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University, titled “Schools Aren’t Super-Spreaders,” which has since been promoted by multiple media outlets to pressure communities to resume in-person learning in K-12 schools and universities across the United States. The New York Times has been early and steadfast in its endorsement of the policy. In her article, Oster argued that “fear and bad press” led to the slowing down and cancellation of school reopenings in late summer, even in places “with relatively low positivity rates” like “Chicago, L.A., and Houston—all remote, at least so far.” As her article title suggests, Oster seeks to allay these fears by asserting that schools are not super-spreader locations, where one person transmits COVID-19 to multiple others. In reality, COVID-19 is often transmitted in “super-spreader” fashion because its aerosolized form allows it to linger and concentrate in a closed space, with poorly-ventilated and overcrowded classrooms being highly conducive to this type of spread. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) reported Monday that there were 61,447 new child COVID-19 cases last week, bringing the total in the US to 853,635. This represents 11.1 percent of all US cases, up from 2 percent in April. In October there were nearly 200,000 new cases in children, predominately in Western states such as Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico and Utah. Other states reporting a greater rise among children include the Dakotas, Kentucky, Michigan and Wisconsin, where recent surges have been significant. These rapid rises coincide with the expansion of school reopenings in recent weeks. The basis of Oster’s data was limited to the last two weeks of September, where she notes that infections in schools were very contained. She writes: “Our data on almost 200,000 kids in 47 states from the last two weeks of September revealed an infection rate of 0.13 percent among students and 0.24 percent among staff. That’s about 1.3 infections over two weeks in a school of 1,000 kids or 2.2 infections over two weeks in a group of 1,000 staff. Even in high-risk areas of the country, the student rates were well under half a percent.” According to CISION PRWeb, only 38 percent of K-12 school students were attending schools in person on Labor Day. However, by Election Day that figure exceeded 60 percent, with 35.7 percent of schools offering in-person learning every day, 26.5 percent in a hybrid schedule of 2-3 in-person days per week and 37.8 percent of schools only offering virtual learning.

Thirteen-year-old eighth grader in Missouri dies of COVID-19  -Peyton Baumgarth died of COVID-19 at Cardinal Glennon Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri, on Saturday, October 31, becoming one of the youngest victims of the coronavirus in the US. He was only 13 years old. Peyton was an eighth grader at Washington Middle School. His last day in school was on October 22, before beginning his quarantine on October 26. Within a week, his symptoms worsened dramatically, and he was hospitalized. He died less than two weeks after he last attended class. Peyton’s uncle told 5 On Your Side news that the family never thought anything like this could happen. “We thought this was a passing…nothing worse than the common flu, and obviously that’s not the case," said Wayne Franek, Jr. Sadly, Franek reported that Peyton’s mom has also tested positive for the coronavirus: “I can't imagine what she’s going through,” Franek said. “Nobody should ever have to deal with that.”Like hundreds of thousands of people across the US, Peyton’s parents are undoubtedly struggling through unthinkable pain. On top of the immense grief that comes with losing a child, these parents are facing outrageous medical bills from Peyton’s brief hospital stay. AGoFundMe page for Peyton’s parents, set up by a family friend, reads: “Peyton’s parents, Stephanie and John, are now left with HUGE medical bills, funeral expenses and loss of pay related to time off of work.”

Omaha, Nebraska school worker dies from COVID-19 as cases spike and teacher anger grows -- Greg Petersen, a school custodian in the Millard School District of Omaha, Nebraska died from COVID-19 on Thursday as schools in the state reopen amid the continued spread of the virus, fueling mounting anger among educators. Infections are rising rapidly in Nebraska, with a record 1,605 daily new cases on Thursday. As of Sunday, the state has recorded 652 COVID deaths. Petersen was in his 60s and worked full time at Grace Abbott Elementary as a custodian, and previously worked at other Omaha schools. His wife Lisa wrote on Facebook, “The kids and I are in shock. I don’t know what we’re going to do without him. Such a wonderful husband and father and a great guy.” The school district has tried to absolve itself of all responsibility for Petersen’s death. Rebecca Kleeman, Millard School District spokesperson, told the Omaha World Herald, “We don’t know how he contracted the virus.” Kleeman claims Petersen had no contact with anyone else at the school. Abbott Elementary has had at least three confirmed cases of COVID-19 this year while the district has officially reported over 85 active cases and 273 students and staff quarantined so far. Other schools have seen confirmed outbreaks as well. A principal at Millard North sent a letter Friday saying, “we learned of four positive cases within our community.” Counselors at Millard North were also asked to come back before a 14-day quarantine ended. More than 70,000 Nebraskans have tested positive with COVID-19 as of Sunday. Douglas County, which includes Omaha, had over 421 confirmed cases by Friday, adding to a total of 22,786 total cases since March. There have been 149 reported cases in schools over the past two weeks in Douglas County, which includes over 90 staff and 59 students so far. At least 174 educators and students are in quarantine.

Washington D.C. Public Schools halt reopening plans as teachers mount sickout strike -- On Monday, officials in the Washington D.C. Public School (DCPS) system announced a halt to their plans to reopen schools after hundreds of teachers began calling out sick. The sickout took place after a member-wide vote last week of the Washington Teachers Union (WTU) resulted in 93 percent of teachers declaring “no confidence” in Democratic Mayor Muriel Bowser’s reopening plans, which had been slated to begin Nov. 9. The WTU suggested teachers take a “mental health day” before Tuesday’s presidential election. “We are living in turbulent times and teachers are experiencing a great amount of fear and anxiety around the national elections as well as the District’s Return to School Plan,” declared WTU President Elizabeth Davis in an email to teachers Sunday. “While one day off may not by itself cure burnout, a mental health day can provide you with a much-needed and well-deserved break.” The announcement comes after the Washington D.C. region has seen an increase of COVID-19 cases in its jurisdictions. The seven-day daily average of new cases recorded Monday for Maryland-DC-Virginia stood at 2,274. This exceeded the previous high of 2,218 set during May. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association, 61,000 children caught COVID-19 in the United States last week. In all, over 853,635 children have caught the virus in the US, or nearly 11.1 percent of the total COVID-19 cases in the country, dispelling the myth promoted by Democrats and Republicans across the US that children are less susceptible to the virus and that schools can be reopened “safely.” The WTU and DCPS officials have been at loggerheads over certain precautions in the district’s school reopening plan. The plan was to begin allowing 11 students per grade to attend what was being termed “CARE classrooms” starting Nov. 9.

 Brookline, Massachusetts educators begin sickout strike as state officials push to keep schools open - On Monday, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced new restrictions in response to a spike in coronavirus cases in the state. Sunday marked the ninth straight day the state had reported more than 1,000 new infections, while the three-day average for COVID-related hospitalizations has jumped by nearly 40 percent over the course of the last month, from 432 to 602. The Republican governor has repeatedly vowed that Massachusetts would not return to the “lockdown” implemented in the early months of the pandemic and the new measures make this clear. The new set of targeted restrictions tightens a mask-wearing order, imposes a 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew for all but “essential” activities, as well as ordering restaurants, liquor stores, gyms, casinos and theaters to close at 9:30 p.m. However, Baker and state school officials have placed a premium on opening schools despite the dangers faced by students, teachers and their families, and these new restrictions do nothing to change that. Schools across the state remain a patchwork of partially opened districts, hybrid and fully remote learning, with the health and safety of communities hanging in the balance. There is mounting opposition to the opening of schools among educators across Massachusetts and the entire country. In the Greater Boston town of Brookline on Monday, the Brookline Educators Union (BEU) announced that they intend to strike Tuesday after the Brookline School Committee’s “decision to renege on its support for maintaining 6 feet of social distancing within public schools to best prevent against the spread of COVID-19,” BEU President Jessica Wender-Shubow said in a statement. In a letter to Brookline parents, the school committee said that it reserved the right at any point to adjust “best practices” for school safety, including mandating 6-foot distancing, as “best practices can change.” The school committee has filed a petition for a strike investigation with the Massachusetts Department of Labor Relations. Massachusetts law prohibits public employees from striking.“We’re doing a sickout tomorrow. We’ve been trying to sit down with the school committee for months to come up with a new MOA, and they’ve been refusing to discuss anything."

 Ohio schools report 2,000 new coronavirus cases this week - (WCMH) – For the eighth consecutive week, Ohio schools reported a record increase of coronavirus cases among students and staff members on Thursday, 2,010 new cases that elevate the state’s total to 7,068.Since mid-September, the Ohio Department of Health has released case numbers for this school year from Ohio’s public districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college institutions. Every week has seen a record increase in cumulative cases from the previous. Cumulative COVID-19 cases reported by Ohio schools [table] Schools report cases to ODH on Tuesdays to be announced to the public on Thursdays. (See more information on the data in the dropdown below.) Schools report cases among students and staff to ODH on Tuesdays, and ODH releases numbers on Thursdays at 2 p.m. However, the numbers a school reports to ODH may not be as recent as Tuesday. Case criteria

• Full-time or part-time students and staff members who have tested positive for or been diagnosed with COVID-19.
• Staff includes teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff.
• Excludes students/staff who are completely remote, but includes them if they were “on-site” while infectious.

ODH reports “new” and “cumulative” cases. Cases only move over to “cumulative” once the person is no longer COVID-positive. This means the number of “new” cases each week is not guaranteed to be the weekly difference between “cumulative” totals. More info4,333 (61%) of Ohio’s cases are students and 2,735 (39%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff.992 schools, districts, etc. have reported at least one COVID-19 case this school year, an increase of 108 since last week. Three large public districts in the Columbus area lead the state in cumulative cases: Olentangy Local Schools (140), Dublin City Schools (105) and South-Western City Schools (102).

Michigan K-12 schools see another huge increase in COVID-19 outbreaks - COVID-19 continues to rip through Michigan’s K-12 schools. New data shows that last week there were a record 44 new outbreaks in schools across the state, an increase of more than 50 percent over the previous week. This brings the number of ongoing outbreaks in Michigan schools to 126, with a total of 606 COVID-19 cases among students, teachers and staff. As these latest figures show, the spread of COVID-19 through Michigan schools is not only continuing but accelerating, with an increasing number of new outbreaks each week for the past month in virtually every part of the state. Grand Rapids and its surrounding suburbs, which comprise Michigan’s second largest metropolitan area, with a population over one million, are the state’s current hotspot for COVID-19 outbreaks in K-12 schools. Twelve different schools across Kent County now have ongoing outbreaks, with a staggering 138 teachers, students and staff infected so far. The state’s largest ongoing school-related outbreak is connected to Rockford High School, located north of Grand Rapids. The outbreak was detected in the first days of October, with four cases initially reported on October 5. By October 12, the number of cases had increased to 10, prompting the closure of the high school and a switch to virtual learning. Despite this, the outbreak has continued to spread further each week, and as of November 2 there are 29 Rockford High students, teachers and staff who have tested positive.  Click for interactive map. The Detroit metro area (Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties, with a combined population of over 3 million) has 22 ongoing outbreaks totaling 84 cases in schools spread out across the cities of Detroit, Canton, Wyandotte, Romulus, Troy, Oxford, Clarkston, Ortonville, Rochester Hills, Warren, Clinton Township, St. Clair Shores, Chesterfield, Macomb, Mount Clemens, Ira and Romeo. Genesee County, whose largest city is Flint, has 10 ongoing outbreaks with 35 cases in schools across Flint, Burton, Swartz Creek, Grand Blanc, Lindon, Davison and Fenton. Rural Michigan schools also continue to see increasing numbers of cases and outbreaks. The state’s largest new outbreak infected 11 people at Benzie Central High School in the village of Benzonia. Located in the northern Lower Peninsula near the Sleeping Bear Dunes, Benzonia has a total population of about 500. Michigan’s rural Upper Peninsula has 11 ongoing outbreaks with 69 total cases, including four new outbreaks last week in Marquette County. All of the UP, as well as all of northern Michigan, has now fully reopened for face-to-face learning according, to Burbio’s K-12 School Opening Tracker. There were also new outbreaks last week in four different schools in the city of Lapeer, which is located north of Detroit and east of Flint in Michigan’s rural “Thumb” region. With a population of 8,600, Lapeer now has ongoing outbreaks in six of its schools.

 Bipartisan assault on US public education intensifies amid COVID-19 pandemic - Several recently published reports have drawn attention to the unrelenting assault on public education being carried out by Republicans and Democrats across the United States. Under conditions of a deepening pandemic, which is exacerbating the broader economic and social crisis for the working class and poor, the bipartisan gutting of school district budgets across the US is projected to reach an unprecedented scale. According to a recent Economic Policy Institute (EPI) study, K-12 districts across the US are facing a $1 trillion shortfall by the end of 2021. The sharp decline in state and local tax revenue comes in the aftermath of decades of systematic disinvestment in public education. State and local funding constitutes the majority source of K-12 public school budgets in the US. While corporate profits quickly rebounded in the period following the Great Recession, surpassing 2008 levels by nearly 80 percent within six years according to many conservative estimates, spending on public education was consistently slashed during the same period under the Obama administrations. Average state and local funding for public education only returned to 2008 levels in 2016 and remained flat from that year until the onset of the pandemic. The Center for American Progress estimates that near-term state and local spending on education will drop as much as 50 percent due to the pandemic. The further evisceration of state and local budgets for education will have a devastating impact on education workers and public school students alike. Recent Bureau of Labor Department data reveals that nearly 1 million K-12 education jobs were cut during the first four months after the onset of the pandemic. Another 350,000 education jobs were slashed this past September alone. The mass layoffs in public education, which is aggravating residual staffing shortages stemming from pre-pandemic layoffs, is taking place amid a general rise in K-12 student enrollment across the US. In addition to job cuts, the decades-long, bipartisan effort to drive down wages among education workers has continued full force. A Southern Regional Education Board study published in September details how average teacher salaries across the US have sunk so low that mid-career educators in 38 states, both Democrat and Republican-led, qualify for federal assistance programs such as food stamps. One out of five teachers in the US is forced to take on a second job to make ends meet. Massive job cuts, stagnant wages and worsening school conditions, including increased classroom overcrowding, crumbling school infrastructure, as well as antiquated and inadequate instructional materials, form the objective conditions that have compelled teachers across the US to engage in an ongoing series of strikes since the February 2018 statewide wildcat strike by West Virginia teachers. Despite the initiative and courage of rank-and-file educators, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the National Education Association (NEA) and their state and local affiliates have continuously worked to isolate and wear down striking teachers in an effort to subordinate their struggle to the Democratic Party, which has played an equally active role in gutting education. Significantly, many of the education jobs that are being eliminated are concentrated among special education teachers, teacher assistants and other support staff, guidance counselors and school nurses. Reduced staffing in these areas has been shown to aggravate the negative impact of cuts to education for those students most in need of support. Additionally, school districts across the country are slashing enrichment programs in areas such as arts and foreign language study.

College student, 20, found dead in dorm room after testing positive for COVID-19 -Bethany Nesbitt, a 20-year old psychology major at Grace College in Winona Lake, Indiana, has become one of the latest young victims of the coronavirus in the US. She was found dead on the morning of Friday, October 30 in her dorm room, after having been sent home from the hospital following a positive COVID-19 test. Bethany, who was in her junior year at Grace College, was the youngest of 9 children from a family in Michigan. She was training to be a Child Life Specialist, a type of health care professional who helps children and families navigate the process of illness, injury, disability, trauma, or hospitalization. A statement from the family, published by her brother on Twitter, noted that she had been quarantined in her dorm room for 10 days at the time of her death. Initially experiencing symptoms in the week of October 20, she took a test for the virus on October 22nd, at which time she began quarantining. The statement notes that the results of that initial test were never delivered due to an unknown clerical error. Bethany, who was asthmatic, worked with her mother and campus health officials to monitor her oxygen saturation levels. On October 26, Bethany experienced a drop in her oxygen saturation and was taken to the emergency room for evaluation. An ER doctor determined that she likely had COVID-19 but felt that it was not a severe case as she seemed to be recovering. She then returned to her dorm room and continued her quarantine. On October 28, Bethany notified her family that her oxygen levels were normalizing and that she had been fever free for 24 hours. On October 29, she was tested again. The statement from her family notes that her improving condition had encouraged her. She watched Netflix that night before retiring to bed. Bethany passed away that night. The results of the second test, positive for COVID, were delivered only after her death. The immediate cause of Bethany’s death was a pulmonary embolism, which is a common cause of death among COVID-19 patients. A pulmonary embolism, according to the Mayo Clinic, is “a blockage in one of the pulmonary arteries in your lungs.” A recent article in Science News cites a new study which suggests that such embolisms in COVID patients may be a product of the body’s immune system attacking the patient’s body rather than the virus itself. The statement from Bethany’s family notes that she had elected to return to Grace College this semester and had been granted a single-person dorm room by the college. Grace College, which is a small, evangelical Christian college, notes on their website that while students are “required to wear a mask at all times in their residence hall,” they have adopted a “floor is family” philosophy. As a result, students residing on the same floor are not required to wear a face mask around each other. Despite this, the statement from Bethany’s family notes that she “was careful. She wore her mask. She socially distanced.”

Here's how many Covid-19 cases have been reported at NE Ohio colleges - There have been nearly 11,000 Covid-19 cases across 56 Ohio colleges and universities since the start of the pandemic, according to a tracker that has data on schools nationwide.The New York Times has been tracking Covid-19 cases at schools nationwide, and its tracker found that there have been 10,855 cases at Ohio colleges since Oct. 22, the last time the tracker was updated.According to the report, Ohio State University has had 3,350 of those cases, accounting for more than 30% of the total number of cases tracked.Here are some totals for Cleveland-area schools:

• Kent State University — 282
• Ohio University — 519
• Norte Dame College — 16
• John Carroll University — 120
• Case Western Reserve University — 47
• Cleveland State University — 1

For its research, the Times said it tracked every four-year public institution and every private college that competes in NCAA sports. Across those schools, there have been more than 214,000 cases and at least 75 deaths since the start of the pandemic, the Times noted. Most of the deaths were reported in the spring and were college employees, according to the Times. In addition, because the Times' numbers are cumulative, the data does now show how the virus might be spreading from each campus.

US schools intensify student surveillance in the COVID-19 era - Millions of students participating in online learning are gravely concerned about how schools are monitoring their activity on and off campus and using their data. As technology continues to advance by leaps and bounds, critical issues of privacy, data use and basic democratic rights are being brought to the fore. Just last month, the University of Miami was caught using facial recognition technology to track down students who attended a protest opposing the university’s reckless reopening plans. The university emailed nine students who went to the protest to tell them the dean of students wanted to discuss the “incident” which they had participated in, referring to the small protest. When the students questioned the university dean, Ryan Holmes, as to how the university knew the identity of those involved in the peaceful demonstration, he told them the University of Miami Police Department (UMPD) had helped identify the students via surveillance footage. After a slew of bad press, the university released a short statement denying it uses facial recognition technology. While the university itself may not use the technology, it is evident that the campus police do. In the sheriff’s résumé, he states the school utilizes an advanced camera system with sophisticated algorithms for “motion detection, facial recognition, object detection and much more.” This chilling incident raises serious questions regarding the basic democratic rights of students everywhere. The incident in Miami is not an isolated event. Rather, it is part of a broad trend at K-12 schools as well as university campuses throughout the country. In many cases, schools have used the transition to online learning, brought on in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, to intensify the surveillance of students.

Troubled Youth Who Threatened To Shoot Up School Wins House Seat -- A 20-year-old candidate has won a state House seat in his district in Kansas City, Kansas, despite the Democratic party cutting ties with him back in August over his troubled past. Somehow, 20-year-old Aaron Coleman was the only candidate on the ballon in his district, after beating a veteran state lawmaker in the primary election. According to unofficial figures, Coleman had 3,496 votes, and a Republican write-in candidate who was running against him received 2,013 write-in votes.  The Board of Canvassers is scheduled to meet on November 16th to review provisional ballots cast by voters whose eligibility wasn’t certain. However, Wyandotte County Election Commissioner Bruce Newby said it’s “very rare” for all write-in votes to go to a single candidate, as they did in this race. Newby said that there is “no hope” of the Republican candidate catching up and winning with the remaining ballots.  Coleman is a young man with a troubled past. He admitted to circulating revenge porn in high school, and at the age of 14, he was charged with threatening to shoot another student. In May of 2015, Coleman was charged with a felony count of making a criminal threat but later pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of harassment for the threat he made at the school. He was also accused of being physically abusive with an ex-girlfriend. After Coleman’s past came to light, the state Democratic Party was forced to disown the candidate back in August. Coleman admitted that the allegations of revenge porn and harassing middle school girls online were true but said that he was a “sick and troubled 14-year-old boy” at the time. In a statement on his Facebook page after winning the election, Coleman said, “People’s Democracy has returned to the free state of Kansas after 110 years. Thank you to all of my supporters. This campaign would not have been possible without you. I promise to work hard to serve the residents of this district.” In the comments, he wrote another message that said, “me reading the comments of haters while I take a rip off a bong,” along with a GIF on Micheal Jackson eating popcorn in the music video for “Thriller.” A political operative provided The Associated Press with a screenshot of another tweet that was no longer online Thursday in which Coleman predicted that Kelly would face an “extremely bloody” Democratic primary in two years. “I’m not playing around,” Coleman reportedly wrote in the tweet. “People will realize one day when I call a hit out on you it’s real.”

Poor nutrition in school years may have created 20 cm [7.9 in] height gap across nations  --A new global analysis led by Imperial College London, and published in journal The Lancet, has assessed the height and weight of school-aged children and adolescents across the world. The study, which used data from 65 million children aged five to 19 years old in 193 countries, revealed that school-aged children's' height and weight, which are indicators of their health and quality of their diet, vary enormously around the world. There was a 20 cm difference between 19-year-olds in the tallest and shortest nations - this represented an eight-year growth gap for girls, and a six-year growth gap for boys. For instance, the study revealed that the average 19-year-old girl in Bangladesh and Guatemala (the nations with the world's shortest girls) is the same height as an average 11-year-old girl in the Netherlands, the nation with the tallest boys and girls. The international team behind the study warn that highly variable childhood nutrition, especially a lack of quality food, may lead to stunted growth and a rise in childhood obesity - affecting a child's health and wellbeing for their entire life. The research, which reported data from 1985 to 2019, revealed that the nations with the tallest 19-year-olds in 2019 were in northwest and central Europe, and included the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark and Iceland. These nations with the shortest 19-year-olds in 2019 were mostly in south and southeast Asia, Latin America and East Africa, including Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, Guatemala and Bangladesh. The largest improvements in average height of children over the 35-year period were seen in emerging economies such as China, South Korea and some parts of southeast Asia. For example, 19-year old boys in China in 2019 were 8 cm taller than in 1985, with their global rank changing from 150th tallest in 1985 to 65th in 2019. In contrast the height of children, especially boys, in many Sub-Saharan African nations has stagnated or reduced over these decades. Global height ranking for UK has worsened over past 35 years, with 19-year-old boys falling from 28th tallest in 1985 (176.3 cm) to 39th in 2019 (178.2 cm), and 19-year-old girls from 42nd (162.7 cm) to 49th (163.9 cm).

Coronavirus mutation may have made it more contagious - A study involving more than 5,000 COVID-19 patients in Houston finds that the virus that causes the disease is accumulating genetic mutations, one of which may have made it more contagious. According to the paper published in the peer-reviewed journal mBIO, that mutation, called D614G, is located in the spike protein that pries open our cells for viral entry. It's the largest peer-reviewed study of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences in one metropolitan region of the U.S. to date.  The paper shows "the virus is mutating due to a combination of neutral drift -- which just means random genetic changes that don't help or hurt the virus -- and pressure from our immune systems," said Ilya Finkelstein, associate professor of molecular biosciences at The University of Texas at Austin and co-author of the study. The study was carried out by scientists at Houston Methodist Hospital, UT Austin and elsewhere. During the initial wave of the pandemic, 71% of the novel coronaviruses identified in patients in Houston had this mutation. When the second wave of the outbreak hit Houston during the summer, this variant had leaped to 99.9% prevalence. This mirrors a trend observed around the world. A study published in July based on more than 28,000 genome sequences found that variants carrying the D614G mutation became the globally dominant form of SARS-CoV-2 in about a month. SARS-CoV-2 is the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effects – WSJ - Nearly a year into the global coronavirus pandemic, scientists, doctors and patients are beginning to unlock a puzzling phenomenon: For many patients, including young ones who never required hospitalization, Covid-19 has a devastating second act. Many are dealing with symptoms weeks or months after they were expected to recover, often with puzzling new complications that can affect the entire body—severe fatigue, cognitive issues and memory lapses, digestive problems, erratic heart rates, headaches, dizziness, fluctuating blood pressure, even hair loss. What is surprising to doctors is that many such cases involve people whose original cases weren’t the most serious, undermining the assumption that patients with mild Covid-19 recover within two weeks.. Doctors call the condition “post-acute Covid” or “chronic Covid,” and sufferers often refer to themselves as “long haulers” or “long-Covid” patients. “Usually, the patients with bad disease are most likely to have persistent symptoms, but Covid doesn’t work like that,” said Trisha Greenhalgh, professor of primary care at the University of Oxford and the lead author of an August BMJ study that was among the first to define chronic Covid patients as those with symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks and spanning multiple organ systems. For many such patients, she said, “the disease itself is not that bad,” but symptoms like memory lapses and rapid heart rate sometimes persist for months.In October, the National Institutes of Health added a description of such cases to its Covid-19 treatment guidelines, saying doctors were reporting Covid-19-related long-term symptoms and disabilities in people with milder illness. Estimates about the percentage of Covid-19 patients who experience long-haul symptoms range widely. A recent survey of more than 4,000 Covid-19 patients found that about 10% of those age 18 to 49 still struggled with symptoms four weeks after becoming sick, that 4.5% of all ages had symptoms for more than eight weeks, and 2.3% had them for more than 12 weeks. The study, which hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, was performed using an app created by the health-science company Zoe in cooperation with King’s College London and Massachusetts General Hospital. Another preliminary study looking mostly at nonhospitalized Covid patients found that about 25% still had at least one symptom after 90 days. A European study found about one-third of 1,837 nonhospitalized patients reported being dependent on a caregiver about three months after symptoms started.

The Lingering and Often Invisible Impact of Covid Infections (video) A significant number of Covid-19 patients are dealing with symptoms long after the initial infection. The Wall Street Journal asked four patients to share their stories about how lingering effects are affecting their lives.

COVID-19 Is Making Tinnitus Worse – Hearing Loss May Be “Long COVID” Symptom - New research reveals that tinnitus, a common condition that causes the perception of noise in the ear and head, is being exacerbated by COVID-19 — as well as the measures helping to keep us safe. The study of 3,103 people with tinnitus was led by Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), with support from the British Tinnitus Association and the American Tinnitus Association. The study involved participants from 48 countries, with the vast majority coming from the UK and the US. Published in the journal Frontiers in Public Health, the research found that 40% of those displaying symptoms of COVID-19 simultaneously experience a worsening of their tinnitus. Although the study focused on people with pre-existing tinnitus, a small number of participants also reported that their condition was initially triggered by developing COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that tinnitus could be a ‘long COVID’ symptom in some cases. Tinnitus affects an estimated one in eight adults in the UK and is associated with reduced emotional wellbeing, depression, and anxiety. The new study also found that a large proportion of people believe their tinnitus is being made worse by social distancing measures introduced to help control the spread of the virus. These measures have led to significant changes to work and lifestyle routines. UK respondents reported this to be a greater issue compared to people from other countries, with 46% of UK respondents saying that lifestyle changes had negatively impacted their tinnitus compared to 29% in North America. The study noted that as well as increasing the severity of tinnitus symptoms, the COVID-19 pandemic has also made it more difficult for people to access healthcare support for the condition. This could further increase emotional distress and worsen tinnitus symptoms, creating a vicious cycle. Before COVID-19, more than eight out of 10 UK patients were already unhappy with the treatment options available from their health professional.

 Woman sheds coronavirus for 70 days without symptoms.-- A woman with COVID-19 in Washington state shed infectious virus particles for 70 days, meaning she was contagious during that entire time, despite never showing symptoms of the disease, according to a new report. The 71-year-old woman had a type of leukemia, or cancer of the white blood cells, and so her immune system was weakened and less able to clear her body of the new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. Although researchers have suspected that people with weakened immune systems may shed the virus for longer than typical, there was little evidence of this happening, until now. The findings contradict guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which say that immunocompromised people with COVID-19 are likely not infectious after 20 days. The new findings suggest "long-term shedding of infectious virus may be a concern in certain immunocompromised patients," the authors wrote in their paper, published Wednesday (Nov. 4) in the journal Cell. The woman was infected in late February during the country's first reported COVID-19 outbreak, which occurred at the Life Care Center rehabilitation facility in Kirkland, Washington, where she was a patient. She was hospitalized for anemia related to her cancer on Feb. 25, and doctors screened her for COVID-19 because she came from the center with the outbreak. She tested positive on March 2. Over the next 15 weeks, the woman would be tested for COVID-19 more than a dozen times. The virus was detected in her upper respiratory tract for 105 days; and infectious virus particles — meaning they were capable of spreading the disease — were detected for at least 70 days. Specifically, the researchers were able to isolate the virus from the patient's samples, and grow it in a lab. They were even able to capture images of the virus using scanning and transmission electron microscopy. Typically, people with COVID-19 are contagious for about eight days after infection, according to the report. Previously, the longest duration of infectious virus shedding in a COVID-19 patient was reported to be 20 days. The woman was likely contagious for so long because her body didn't mount a proper immune response. Indeed, the woman's blood samples did not appear to contain antibodies against the virus.

Superspreader Events Play Supersized Role in COVID-19 Disease Transmission -- Mathematical analysis suggests that preventing large gatherings could significantly reduce Covid-19 infection rates. There have been many documented cases of Covid-19 “super-spreading” events, in which one person infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects many other people. But how much of a role do these events play in the overall spread of the disease? A new study from MIT suggests that they have a much larger impact than expected.For the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the “basic reproduction number” is around 3, meaning that on average, each person infected with the virus will spread it to about three other people. However, this number varies widely from person to person. Some individuals don’t spread the disease to anyone else, while “super-spreaders” can infect dozens of people. Wong and Collins set out to analyze the statistics of these super-spreading events. The study of about 60 super-spreading events shows that events where one person infects more than six other people are much more common than would be expected if the range of transmission rates followed statistical distributions commonly used in epidemiology. Based on their findings, the researchers also developed a mathematical model of Covid-19 transmission, which they used to show that limiting gatherings to 10 or fewer people could significantly reduce the number of super-spreading events and lower the overall number of infections. “Super-spreading events are likely more important than most of us had initially realized. Even though they are extreme events, they are probable and thus are likely occurring at a higher frequency than we thought. If we can control the super-spreading events, we have a much greater chance of getting this pandemic under control,” The findings build on previous studies led by UCL researchers which have also suggested that some people with COVID-19 are experiencing neurological symptoms, and that the infection may increase the risk of stroke.

Tiny air pollution rise linked to 11% more Covid-19 deaths – study  - A small rise in people’s long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with an 11% increase in deaths from Covid-19, research has found. Another recent study suggests that 15% of all Covid-19 deaths around the world are attributable to dirty air. The available data only allows correlations to be established and further work is needed to confirm the connections, but the researchers said the evidence was now strong enough that levels of dirty air must be considered a key factor in handling coronavirus outbreaks. The new analysis is based on research reported by the Guardian in April, which has now been reviewed by independent scientists and published in a prominent journal. The consideration of additional data and more factors that may also influence Covid-19 death rates refined the rise in deaths from 15% down to 11%. Most scientists think it is very likely that air pollution increases the number and severity of Covid-19 cases. Breathing dirty air over years is already known to cause heart and lung disease, and these illnesses make coronavirus infections worse. Short-term exposure is also known to increase the risk of acute lung infections. The gold-standard method for confirming the link between air pollution and Covid-19 would be to assess a large number of coronavirus patients on an individual level, so their age, smoking history and other details can be taken into account. Such data, however, is not yet available so given the urgency of the pandemic researchers have used data on groups of people. This can be strongly indicative of a link, but may hide important individual factors. There are now hundreds of group-level studies, although most have yet to be reviewed, said Prof Francesca Dominici at Harvard University, who led the new analysis. She said there was enough evidence to act immediately: “Absolutely. We already have an overwhelming amount of evidence of the adverse health effects of fine particle pollution, so even without Covid, we should implement more stringent regulation. But the amount of [Covid-related] evidence is also big enough now that there is absolutely nothing to lose, and only benefits, to prioritise some of the more vulnerable areas.”

Vaccine Progress - The Moderna trial has reached its enrollment goal of 30,000 subjects and at least 75% have already received both injections. This is not a challenge trial, but it is expected that many subjects in the vaccine and placebo arms will be infected and these will be tracked. Power calculations suggest that only a few dozen infections are necessary to determine whether there is a benefit to the vaccine over placebo. So far, the number of infected subjects is at or ahead of what they expected. The trial lasts two years, so there is plenty of time to collect data. There is, of course, understandable urgency to push out some vaccine ASAP.I’m in the Moderna trial, which tests the efficacy of injecting the messenger RNA for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (the surface protein that gives coronaviruses their corona) directly into muscle. The protein is made in muscle cells and then (a) secreted and (b) presented to immune cells to stimulate the adaptive immune system. Technically, it is a double-blind trial, but so far, everyone in the vaccine arm experiences the short-term vaccine syndrome of headache, mild fever, muscle and joint ache after the booster. I did, and was able to get an antibody test confirming a robust response (IgG). I’ll continue to social distance and mask as before; I have no interest in testing just how effective the vaccine is or isn’t with my own body.The big question for this and the other vaccines is how robust and durable is the protection. This could vary because of a number of factors, including virus dosage and co-morbidities, which is why the 30,000 figure was important. My co-morbidity is age (I’m 65); older folks have a less-robust immune response on average, and it is more poorly regulated. The phase I/II cohort skewed young.One thing that is frequently overlooked in the COVID-19 pandemic is that most people who survive a frank infection have enduring pathologies after they recover from the acute phase. In this respect, COVID-19 isn’t like the flu, it’s more like polio. So it will be important not only to see whether vaccines reduce mortality, but also if they can blunt the long-term effects on lungs, vasculature, and other organs, as well as virus-induced autoimmunity. Tony Fauci has prophesized that there will likely be a vaccine approved for emergency use by December or the first quarter of 2021, but that general vaccination of the public won’t be a thing until summer of 2021, and assuming that enough people are vaccinated (ca. 70%), some semblance of normality isn’t expected until 2022. Even then, boosters every year or two may be necessary. I agree with Fauci. Indeed, he may be optimistic.

How states and localities are enforcing COVID-19 mandates --Physical distancing (also called social distancing) and the wearing of masks are essential to limiting the spread of COVID-19. Many states and localities have made such measures mandatory, and given the current surge in cases and hospitalizations, policymakers across the country are implementing or reinstating rules surrounding business closures and curfews, mask mandates, and gathering size limitations. However, these mandates have incited controversy and even legal challenges, and leaders have struggled to determine how to best enforce them. As pushback against COVID-19 restrictions continues, it is more important than ever to consider how to enforce these measures.  Enforcement of COVID-19 mandates is challenging for many reasons. First, concerns about discriminatory enforcement exist. People of color have long been dispropotionately cited for minor infractions, and early evidence from New York City showed disproportionate rates of summonses and arrests in neighborhoods that were majority Black or Latino. The rights of those with disabilities are also important, and it is difficult to confirm whether someone has a true medical exemption from wearing a mask.Effective enforcement requires buy-in from those tasked with administering penalties. However, after a summer of protests calling for police reform, law enforcement officials have been reluctant to enforce gathering size limitations, concerned about worsening community relations. Many local law enforcement officials have also refused to enforce state mask mandates, stating reasons including personal opposition, limited staff time and capacity, and violations being so common and time bound that they are impractical to enforce.Monitoring and fining businesses is typically easier than fining individuals because of existing regulatory mechanisms. However, enforcement through businesses raises its own logistical challenges. Both news stories and survey data have highlighted assaults on employees when businesses try to enforce rules. Different businesses may fall under the purview of different agencies, making coordination difficult. Agencies may also lack the capacity and staff to carry out enforcement, and confusing or ambiguous legal definitions may further complicate their efforts. For instance, officials in both Michigan and Virginia described challenges from the lack of clear, readily identifiable distinctions between bars and restaurants.Finally, lawsuits may impede efforts to impose and enforce mandates. While state and local governmentshave broad legal authority to issue mask mandates, limitations to sizes of gatherings and business closures risk running afoul of both state and federal laws. For instance, wedding venues have sued under the Fourteenth Amendment, arguing that they should be treated the same way as restaurants, and gathering size restrictions may infringe on the First Amendment, which ensures rights such as peaceful assembly and the free exercise of religion.

 Utah officials say thousands attended Halloween rave protesting coronavirus rules --Thousands of people attended a Halloween party on Saturday in Utah to protest COVID-19 guidelines, according to NBC News.Speaking to NBC affiliate KSL, Utah County Sheriff's Office spokesperson Sgt. Spencer Cannon said “several thousand” people were discovered to be in attendance. Cannon estimated there were 2,000 to 10,000 people at the party.As reported by KSL, videos of the event showed young people, appearing to be high school and college aged, failing to practice social distancing or wear masks. No arrests were made, though Cannon stated that charges may be brought against the party organizers for hosting the mass gathering without a permit.A spokesperson for Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) said in a statement, "We must decide, and show by our actions, that the lives of everyone around us matter more to us than parties. If we do not, we will have a difficult time beating COVID-19 as a society."According to authorities, the event was hosted by The Tribe Utah. Both The Tribe Utah and Utah Tonight advertised an event called “The Protest on Halloween,” KSL reported, but the clubs had claimed the event would be canceled after receiving public backlash."We find it both disheartening and concerning that some within our society have allowed fear to supplant basic rights of assembly, giving individuals within the media and some public servants the ability to control what we consider to be a 'pursuit of happiness,'" Utah Tonight said in a prepared statement. The Utah County Health Department said in a statement on Sunday, "As we struggle in our local and statewide communities to contain the COVID-19 virus and mitigate its impacts on our communities, it is unfortunate that some would ignore public health and medical guidance and plan and participate in an event that would allow for the ready spread of the disease between individuals which can then be taken back by these individuals to our communities and infect others who are trying to follow public health and medical recommendations."The health department also implored those who attended the parties to monitor themselves for COVID-19 symptoms and get tested if any are noticed. NBC News noted that most counties in Utah are currently reporting “very high rates” of COVID-19 cases.According to KSL, authorities responded to another party in a warehouse with about 1,500 people in attendance. It is unknown who hosted this event.

 A 20-year-old college student died while quarantining in her dorm room after developing symptoms of COVID-19 -  Bethany Nesbitt, a 20-year-old psychology student at Grace College in Winona Lake, Indiana, was found dead in her dorm room on October 30, 1o days after developing symptoms of COVID-19. According to a statement put out by her family, Nesbitt suffered a pulmonary embolism, a blockage in one of the pulmonary arteries of the lungs, caused by a blood clot.Blood clotting is a common and deadly complication of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The third-year student started experiencing symptoms of the week of October 20 and got tested for the virus on October 22, but an "unknown clerical error" meant she did not receive the results of that test, her family said.For the next four days, Nesbitt stayed in close contact with her family, and was monitored by campus staff, but on October 26 her oxygen levels dipped. She was taken to the emergency room, where doctors said they strongly suspected she had COVID-19, but that they considered it a mild case and sent her back to her dorm room to rest.She was tested again October 29, and Nesbitt told her family she'd had no fever for over a day. She then "watched Netflix and went to bed."Nesbitt was found dead at 10 AM the next morning. Later that day, her COVID-19 test came back positive.

At least 31 states set their one-day coronavirus case records in October - October was a month of grim records in the Covid-19 pandemic, and as November begins, experts say the US hasn't seen the worst of it yet. From Alaska to Maine, at least 31 states across the US reported at least one record-high day of new coronavirus cases in the past month, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And 15 reported their highest one-day tallies of Covid-19 deaths. The country's seven-day average of new daily cases was 78,380 Saturday -- a number that has risen 128.2% since a post-summer-surge low on September 12. With any potential vaccine still a ways off from possible distribution, and the colder months threatening to increase spread, experts emphasize more people need to regularly take precautions to stem the rise anytime soon. "It's the way we protect our neighbors and our communities. And we need to avoid crowds. We have to socially distance. You can't go to a mass gathering now. We need to lower our viral footprint," Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University, told CNN on Saturday. October was unprecedented for several recorded metrics associated with the pandemic. Of the country's seven highest daily tallies of new cases, six were in October. The highest -- 99,321 recorded on Friday -- was the most recorded in one day for any one nation so far. The number of US Covid-19 patients in hospitals on Saturday, October's last day, was 47,374 -- 65.6% higher than it was on September 20, when it was at a low following the summer surge. And Reiner said there is no sign that the number of daily cases will drop soon. "We won't peak until we change our behaviors. And our behaviors that principally need to change are our lack of masking all over the country," he said. The country has recorded more than 9.1 million infections and 230,548 deaths during the pandemic, according to JHU. Hospitals could become overwhelmed as the number of coronavirus cases continues to climb, Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Friday. In El Paso, Texas, where hospitals are struggling to keep up with the number of Covid-19 patients, officials are preparing to add a third mobile morgue unit in anticipation of a spike in deaths. "If that doesn't put our situation into perspective I don't know what will," 

Missouri hospitals face being overwhelmed in latest surge of COVID-19 infections - Missouri hospital administrators and public health officials are raising the alarm over the possibility of hospitals being overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases, asking for help in managing a patient transfer crisis and demanding Republican Governor Mike Parson issue a mask mandate in order to get the spread of the virus under control. On Sunday, the state reported 2,152 new cases of COVID-19. The overwhelming of hospital resources is the most significant factor in COVID-19 mortality. The St. Louis area is experiencing a dangerous increase in cases and hospitalizations, although rural areas of the state continue to see the highest numbers of cases. In Missouri, as in much of the US, the month of October saw the largest number of COVID-19 infections of the pandemic so far. Stltoday.com reports nearly 500 residents are currently in intensive care units in the state. St. Louis Metro Pandemic Task Force leader Dr. Alex Garza reported October 21 that about 90 percent of beds were full in the SSM Health system. For the entire metro, the hospital bed occupancy rate is 85 percent. “Speaking with our task force hospitals yesterday that same sort of level was echoed across all the hospitals from St. Luke’s to Mercy to BJC,” Dr. Garza said. “We normally don’t operate at that high of a level.” Garza issued an emotional plea for the public to take the pandemic seriously. He fought back tears as he explained that area hospitals are at or near capacity due to COVID-19 admissions. “If we continue down the path we’re on right now, if we don’t start listening to science and wear masks and stop gathering in large crowds, things could potentially get much worse.” He also noted that hospital staff shortages are a worry as more healthcare workers contract the virus caring for the sick. “In addition to being full, we’re also seeing an increasing number of our workforce is being exposed to COVID, not necessarily in the hospitals, but out in the community, so then they become quarantined for two weeks. It’s not just only a question of increased volume of COVID patients, it’s also COVID out in the community is causing problems with the workforce, so we’re decreasing our capability to take care of patients as well.” In the latest meeting between state officials and hospital administrators, Texas County Memorial Hospital CEO Wesley Murray said, “I respectfully ask what is our plan to address the increased cases and hospitalizations? We don’t seem to have a plan to try to decrease the cases and the hospitalizations.” The Missouri Hospital Association is warning of statewide staff shortages as essential workers become ill or quit due to burnout. The turnover for state nurses is reportedly 16 percent. Amid the worsening situation for hospitals, Missouri school districts are continuing to send students back to class despite the quarantine of hundreds of Missouri students and school faculty, with no end in sight to outbreaks.

U.S. hospitals competing for nurses as coronavirus cases surge - Hospitals are scrambling to hire more nurses amid the third wave of the virus, leading to stiff competition and increased costs.  — As the coronavirus pandemic surges across the nation and infections and hospitalizations rise, medical administrators are scrambling to find enough nursing help — especially in rural areas and at small hospitals. Nurses are being trained to provide care in fields where they have limited experience. Hospitals are scaling back services to ensure enough staff to handle critically ill patients. And health systems are turning to short-term travel nurses to help fill the gaps. Adding to the strain, experienced nurses are “burned out with this whole [pandemic],” and some are quitting, said Kevin Fitzpatrick, an emergency room nurse at Hurley Medical Center in Flint, Mich., where several left just in the past month to work in hospice or home care or at outpatient clinics. “And replacing them is not easy,” Mr. Fitzpatrick said.  As a result, he said, the ER is operating at about five nurses short of its optimal level at any given time, and each one typically cares for four patients as COVID-19 hospitalizations surge anew. Hospital officials did not respond to requests for comment.   But the departures are not surprising, according to experts, considering not only the mental toll but the fact that many nurses trained in acute care are over 50 and at increased risk of complications if they contract COVID-19, while younger nurses often have children or other family to worry about.  “Who can actually work and who feels safe working are limited by family obligations to protect their own health,” said Karen Donelan, professor of U.S. health policy at Brandeis University’s Heller School for Social Policy and Management. “All of those things have been factors.”  Ms. Donelan said there is little data so far on how the pandemic — which has killed more than 231,000 people in the country — is affecting nursing overall. But some hospitals had a shortage even before the virus took hold, despite a national rise in the number of nurses over the past decade.  With total confirmed coronavirus cases surpassing 9 million in the U.S. and new daily infections rising in 47 states, the need is only increasing. Wausau, Wis.-based Aspirus Health Care is offering $15,000 signing bonuses for nurses with at least a year of experience and hiring contract nurses through private staffing companies to handle a surge in hospitalizations that prompted the system to almost quadruple the number of beds dedicated to COVID-19 patients.   Because the pandemic is surging just about everywhere in the country, hospitals nationwide are competing for the same pool of nurses, offering pay ranging from $1,500 a week to more than $5,000, said April Hansen, executive vice president at San Diego-based Aya Healthcare, which recruits and deploys travel nurses.  Now, placing nurses where they’re needed is “like a giant game of whack-a-mole,” said Ms. Hansen, whose company has about 20,000 openings for contract nurses.

Covid hospitalizations surge as pandemic enters alarming new phase in U.S. - Americans went to the polls Tuesday under the shadow of a resurging pandemic, with an alarming increase in cases nationwide and the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19reaching record highs in a growing number of states.While daily infections were rising in all but three states, the surge was most pronounced in the Midwest and Southwest.Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and New Mexico all reported record high hospitalizations this week. Nebraska’s largest hospitals started limiting elective surgeries and looked to bring in nurses from other states to cope with the surge. Hospital officials in Iowa and Missouri warned bed capacity could soon be overwhelmed. The resurgence loomed over candidates and voters, fearful of both the virus itself and the economic toll of any new shutdowns to control its spread. The debate over how far to take economically costly measures has divided a country already sharply polarized over President Donald Trump’s turbulent four years in office.Meanwhile, Iowa hospital officials warned their facilities and staff could be overwhelmed without serious efforts to curtail the virus spread. The state's seven-day rolling average of positive cases reached 36.4 percent over the weekend, the third-highest in the nation behind South Dakota and Wyoming, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University. Hospitalizations reached a record 730 on Monday. Suresh Gunasekaran, CEO of University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, said Iowa is entering its third peak, one that is higher than previous ones in May and July. He said his biggest concern is that this peak comes at the beginning of the cold weather season, when the flu and other respiratory conditions typically increase hospitalizations. “The infection rate is definitely a leading indicator for hospitalizations, and the hospitalization rate is a leading indicator of mortality,” Gunasekaran said. "No doubt if this trend continues — not just at our hospitals — but every hospital in the state could be at capacity in a very short period of time,” Dr. Cary Ward, chief medical officer for CHI Health’s network of 14 hospitals across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa said during a video call with reporters.

COVID-19 cases spike across US as health care workers struggle with understaffing in hospitals - With infections and deaths from COVID-19 reaching extraordinary levels in the United States, opposition among nurses and health care workers is brewing against the unmitigated spread of the disease and unpreparedness of hospitals for the deluge of sick patients. The US is experiencing a sharp increase in coronavirus cases, which is coinciding with dangerous upticks in hospitalizations. Daily confirmed cases have hovered near or above 100,000 over the past several days, reaching record-shattering numbers, surpassing the number of infections in April, when the virus was at its peak. The total death toll now stands at nearly 240,000 as of this writing. Nowhere are these conditions being expressed more catastrophically than in hospitals, which are witnessing a flood of COVID-19 patients that risk bringing the nation’s health care system to the breaking point. An estimated one-quarter of US counties have reported a peak of new cases in the past month, including most cases in states where officials were most eager to prematurely reopen their economies. These include Ohio, Indiana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Wisconsin. Capacity levels are also becoming more acute, as 80 percent of hospital beds in cities such as Atlanta, Minneapolis and Baltimore near full occupancy. Shortages of health care workers are reaching disastrous levels. In Montana, which is seeing a dramatic rise in infections, staffing shortages caused by the pandemic have shut down a clinic in the state’s capital. Employees at one Northwestern regional hospital who have been exposed to COVID-19 have been told to continue working despite the danger. In St. Vincent Hospital in Billings, one of the largest cities in Montana, three COVID-19 units were expanded last week, after the state reported its second-highest daily cases on record. Michael Skehan, St. Vincent’s chief operating officer, called the situation facing the hospital a “crisis.” One healthcare worker from the hospital told NBC News, “I never thought we would be anywhere close to where we are now. I’m a good nurse—and the nurses I work with are good nurses—but we are broken.” In North Dakota, a state where cases are growing at a rate faster than any other, hospitals are being compelled to forgo elective surgeries again because of the surge. Many hospitals are debating plans to potentially request government assistance to hire more nurses, in the face of the abysmal staffing levels. In San Luis Obispo, California, workers at 11 Tenet-owned Hospital conglomerates voted overwhelmingly for strike action in opposition to unsafe conditions and hospital neglect. The 4,300-workforce across the region voted by 96 percent in favor of the strike.

November 3 COVID-19 Test Results - I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!  The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 927,029 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 86,507 positive tests. (New Tuesday record)Almost 2,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.3% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.The dashed line is the July high. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

 Cases in El Paso, Texas spike as coronavirus hospitalizations surge nationwide On Wednesday, El Paso, Texas reported a record 3,100 new coronavirus cases, shattering the previous day’s count of 1,281. The spike in new cases came only seven days after County Judge Ricardo Samaniego, the county’s highest elected official, ordered the county back into lockdown for two weeks. People wait in line at a free COVID-19 testing site at the Mexican Consulate in Texas. (Image credit: David J. Phillip/AP) The lockdown was put in place, closing restaurants and salons but not government buildings or schools, after it became clear that the surge in new cases in the region would overwhelm hospitals. These fears have been realized. There are currently 1,041 people who are hospitalized, including 311 in intensive care units. The number of active cases currently stands at 21,902, about 2.6 percent of the county’s population, while 33,543 people have recovered from the disease. At least 617 people have died in the county from COVID-19 since March, including eight new deaths today. The number of patients in intensive care is particularly alarming, because the county has only 285 licensed ICU beds, of which only 234 are currently staffed. The county is being supplemented by state and federal medical teams that have set up makeshift hospitals in tents and a nearby convention center. Patients are also being airlifted to other cities to be treated. Such support, however, may not be sustainable as cases continue to rise in other parts of Texas and across the country. This in turn sharply raises the danger that hospitals in the county, which act as the medical hub for all of West Texas and Southwestern New Mexico, will not be able to properly care for all patients, forcing doctors to make the choice of deciding who lives and who dies. Cases are also rising across the Mexican border in Ciudad Juarez, which reported 542 new cases and 27 new deaths on Tuesday. Both El Paso and Ciudad Juarez lie on the Rio Grande River and form the El Paso-Juarez metropolitan area, which encompasses more than 2.7 million people. It is the second largest such binational region on the US-Mexico border (after San Diego-Tijuana). In total, the region has suffered 82,295 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 2,673 deaths. The dangers that the pandemic is posing to the residents of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez did not, however, prevent the state of Texas from suing El Paso County for issuing the lockdown order. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a motion Tuesday for a temporary injunction against the lockdown measure, claiming that “Judge Samaniego has no authority to flout Governor Abbott’s executive orders by shutting down businesses in El Paso County.” Paxton’s statement also called the action “unlawful” and said it was “oppressing” those who live in the county.

Monroe County public health officials report apparent COVID-19 reinfection - Public health officials in a southern Iowa county are reporting a person in the county who has been infected with the novel coronavirus for the second time. Monroe County Public Health said that a person who was reported positive on Monday, Nov. 2, is the county’s first apparent case of a documented repeat infection. Public health officials define this as a person who tests positive for COVID-19 in separate incidents with at least 90 days between them. Officials said that an initial infection with COVID-19 does not necessarily confer guaranteed immunity indefinitely. They reminded local residents to continue to practice social distancing, to wear masks in public, and to limit close contacts with people especially outside of your home or family.

United States tops 100,000 coronavirus cases setting new one day record for COVID-19 pandemic - ABC News - The United States has set a one day record for coronavirus cases with 102,591 new infections, as hospitals in several states reported a rising tide of patients, according to a Reuters tally. Nine states reported record one day increases in cases on Wednesday (local time): Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin. The pandemic has affected nearly every aspect of American life, including a record number of voters mailing in their ballots in Tuesday's presidential election, whose outcome has yet to be decided. In addition to rising cases, on Tuesday hospitalisations topped 50,000 for the first time in three months.

North Dakota sets records for COVID-19 deaths, cases and hospitalizations - CBS News  North Dakota set a grim record on Thursday as health officials reported 29 more deaths from COVID-19, along with new daily highs of cases and hospitalizations. The report showed that 231 people were being treated in medical facilities across the state, up 11 from the previous high set Wednesday.Health officials had not updated the number of staffed intensive care and inpatient beds on Thursday, though both have been dwindling. There were only 14 staffed intensive care beds and 188 staffed inpatient beds available on WednesdayNorth Dakota's death toll from the virus climbed to 568, with 325 occurring since Oct. 1 The death count is the 15th highest per capita in the country at about 75 deaths per 100,000 people, according to The COVID Tracking Project. CBS affiliate KXMA reports that most of the 29 deaths reported Thursday were people over the age of 60 but two of the casualties included a woman in her 30s from Ward County and a woman in her 40s from Cass County. Three of the deaths were people in their 50s.  Health officials reported 1,540 new cases of COVID-19 across the state, for a total of nearly 50,000 since the start of the pandemic. Health officials reported the positivity rate topped 17% on Thursday. There were 1,859 new cases per 100,000 people in North Dakota over the past two weeks, which ranks first in the country for new cases per capita, Johns Hopkins University researchers said.

Wisconsin coronavirus: State reports 5,900 new cases, 54 deaths - Wisconsin's coronavirus numbers continued their unfettered upward climb Wednesday as all 72 counties recorded a very high level of COVID-19 activity and state health officials implored residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus. The state Department of Health Services reported a record-breaking 5,935 new cases and 54 deaths, bringing the death toll to 2,156. "We should not be having contact with other human beings that we do not live with — hard stop," DHS Secretary-designee Andrea Palm said in a news conference. The average number of new daily cases over the last seven days also reached a new high of 4,839. It's an increase of 531% in eight weeks. The average daily death toll over the last seven days was 37. Two months ago, just as cases were starting to surge in the state, the daily average was six. As of Wednesday, there were 1,747 people hospitalized with the virus, including 360 patients in intensive care units. Both numbers were all-time highs. Hospitals' options are "limited," Palm said, to address critical staffing shortages and mounting bed space issues. She said the state was "pulling as many levers as we can" to loosen regulations and find additional health care workers. Hospitalizations and deaths have surged as a direct result of the rise in cases weeks earlier, health officials say. The situation is expected to worsen since cases have continued their soaring growth. "We can turn the corner, we can flatten the curve, but we have to do it now, and we have to do it together," Gov. Tony Evers said. The U.S. is contending with its third, and worst, wave of the virus yet. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that for the first time, more than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported in a day. In Wisconsin, the massive rise in cases, hospitalizations and deaths since early September has strained hospitals and public health systems, and the state is in a crisis, Palm said. In a weekly update of disease activity levels, two holdout counties in western Wisconsin joined the other 70 counties at the highest level of the state's measurement tool. The "very high" level of disease activity means there are at least 350 COVID-19 cases for every 100,000 people. Several counties report a case rate of more than 1,000 or 2,000. "It's not happening someplace else or to somebody else," Evers said. "It's here and Wisconsinites in every corner of our state know first-hand the tragedies this virus and this pandemic hold." Also seeing a concerning and persistent upward climb is the average positivity rate, which hit a new high of 31.1% Wednesday. The measure looks at first-time positive tests over the last seven days. Palm urged residents to wear masks and leave home only when absolutely necessary to help protect their families, friends, neighbors and health care workers.

Illinois Reports Record-High Daily Case Count as State Reaches Grim Milestone – Illinois saw a record-high number of new coronavirus cases Thursday as the state simultaneously crossed a grim milestone and the positivity rate spiked once again. According to the Illinois Department of Public Health, 9,935 new cases were reported in the last 24 hours, a record high for the pandemic so far, along with 97 additional deaths, the highest number since June 4. The new fatalities lift the statewide death toll above 10,000, reaching 10,030 as of Thursday afternoon. Total cases statewide climbed to 447,491. The new cases lifted Illinois' rolling seven-day positivity rate rise from 8.5% to 9.1, the highest mark the state has seen since at least late May when the state was on its way down from its first coronavirus cases peak. The state says 86,015 test results have been returned to state labs in the last 24 hours, with 8,116,728 total tests performed during the pandemic. Along with the increases in cases and positivity rates, the state has also seen a continued rise in hospitalizations due to the virus. According to IDPH data, 3,891 residents are currently hospitalized because of the virus. Of those patients, 772 are currently in intensive care units and 343 are on ventilators.

Michigan sets another new COVID record with 5,710 cases -Michigan shattered its daily COVID-19 case record again Thursday as it surpassed 5,000 in a day, joining other Midwestern states reporting an explosion of cases. With Thursday's 5,710 high case mark, Michigan joined 14 other states setting new single-day records the same day. Michigan's neighbors — Ohio (4,961 cases), Indiana (4,426), Wisconsin (5,922) and Illinois (9,935) — were among the record-breakers. "If we want to avoid looking like Wisconsin, we have got to take action now," said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of the state across Lake Michigan, which has a 30% positivity rate, quadruple that of Michigan. Thursday was the fourth time in the past two weeks Michigan set a record case count. Michigan’s record for deaths, meanwhile, was reached on April 16 with 164. Deaths stayed near single digits from July through September but spiked again with 10-18 per day in early October. Deaths rose on Oct. 23 with 34, 43 on Nov. 3 and reached a recent high on Thursday with 51 deaths. In the past week, the state has added 172 deaths. Thursday's additions bring the state's total number of confirmed cases to 197,806 and total confirmed deaths to 7,470, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Previously, Michigan set a new daily record of confirmed cases of 4,101 on Wednesday, surpassing the previous one set Saturday at 3,792 cases. Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the state's chief medical executive, said Thursday that she's "very concerned" about what she's seeing across Michigan. The state's averaging 261 cases per million people, and new cases are five times the amount recorded in early September.

Coronavirus in Ohio Thursday update: Another record number of cases at 4,961 — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Lt. Gov. Jon Husted provided an update on COVID-19 in the state Thursday in which he appointed a new leadership team at the state Department of Health amid another record-setting day of new cases. As of Thursday, Nov. 5, a total of 235,170 (+4,961) cases have been reported in Ohio since the pandemic began, leading to 5,461 (+33) deaths and 20,015 (+214) hospitalizations. Thursday’s number of cases was the highest since Ohio began keeping data. DeWine reported that the number of hospitalized patients is also a record and represents a 55% increase from two weeks ago. More than half of Ohio counties now level 3 in latest coronavirus advisory map DeWine announced new appointments at the Ohio Department of Health, which has been without a director since Dr. Amy Acton left in June. Stephanie McCloud, administrator/CEO of the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation, was named director to replace Acton. DeWine encouraged Ohioans now that the election is over to focus their efforts on slowing the spread of the virus. He especially singled out private gatherings such as football-watching parties for becoming events where the virus is spread. DeWine announces new Ohio Department of Health leadership team “This virus doesn’t care if we voted for Donald Trump. It doesn’t care if we voted for Joe Biden. It’s coming after all of us,” he said. Eighty-six of Ohio’s 88 counties are at levels 2 or 3 on the state’s public health advisory map, with 56 at level 3, or red. No counties in the state are at level 4, or purple, which is the highest level on the watch list. Only two counties, Morgan and Monroe in southeastern Ohio, are at level 1. In Central Ohio, Franklin, Licking, Fairfield, Pickaway, Madison and Union counties are all at level 3. Delaware is at level 2, or orange. Seven counties moved to level 3 for the first time: Champaign, Clinton, Coshocton, Holmes, Jefferson, Morrow and Sandusky. DeWine said 86% of the state’s population now lives in a red county.

 Pennsylvania Reports Record COVID-19 Cases; World Suffers Most Deaths In A Day- Live Updates - Pennsylvania just reported a record number of new COVID-19 cases, as the world focuses on the state as the potential "tipping point" in the US presidential race. The 2,900 new cases bring the state total to 220,566, while 47 more deaths brought the death toll to 8,937. The news comes as the US just topped 100,000 daily cases for the first time. "As we have entered a fall resurgence in Pennsylvania, we see case counts on the rise in our counties," Gov. Tom Wolf said, according to PennLive. "We cannot relax our mitigation efforts." Of more than 1,500 hospitalized coronavirus patients in Pennsylvania, most are 65 or over. About 22% of hospitalized patients are in intensive care. Meanwhile, Romania will impose more stringent restrictions starting Monday, including a nighttime curfew to try to limit a significant surge in new virus cases. More than 85% of French hospitals’ initial intensive-care capacity is now taken by severely ill Covid-19 patients, Health Minister Olivier Veran said in a briefing on Thursday. The UK will tell people arriving from Germany and Sweden to self-isolate upon arrival, according to a tweet from Secretary of State for Transport Grant Shapps. Those arriving from 4 am Nov. 7 will need to self-isolate. Italy reported a record daily 34,505 cases a few hours before latest restrictions, including a night-time curfew from 10 p.m., become effective. Daily fatalities rose to 445, the highest since early May, according to the health ministry. Europe has notched another near-record day in terms of cases and deaths, as Greece, Italy, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic have reported record deaths. In France, more than 85% of the country's ICU beds were filled with seriously ill COVID-19 patients Some scientists in the US warned that a lockdown might be inevitable, perhaps even before the Thanksgiving Day holiday, if the country continues to report roughly 100k new cases a day. The global tracker from JHU surpassed 48.3 million cases as deaths worldwide also topped 1.22 million. In Arizona, the site of one of the most tense battles for the presidential vote, more than 2,000 new cases were reported Thursday for the first time since August. Finally, the FT reports that Regeneron on Thursday said it is working to address questions about how the company will distribute badly needed doses of the medication in time to save some seriously ill patients. The drug works best on patients who can't produce a strong enough immune response. 

US coronavirus: The US just set a staggering new Covid-19 daily case record with more than 120,000 infections – CNN -The US set a grim new Covid-19 record Thursday -- following a week marked by high case numbers -- surpassing 120,000 infections in a single day. And it was the second day in a row the country reported more than 100,000 infections. Health experts had warned weeks ago that the nation's daily cases would reach six digits, but those alarming figures hit sooner than expected. And Covid-19's death toll could reach 266,000 by the end of November, according to an ensemble forecast published Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thursday saw at least 121,054 new cases nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University. There were at least 1,187 reported deaths, a near 20% increase from the same day last week.As the US continues to shatter daily case records, so too do states across the nation: Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Utah and Wisconsin are among those that set new daily records for infections on Thursday. In just 10 months, more than 9.6 million people in the US have been infected with coronavirus, and more than 234,000 have died. Hospitalizations are also surging nationwide, with more than 53,000 people hospitalized with coronavirus on Thursday. As the pandemic continues to escalate, some officials are enacting new rules to try to control the virus' spread. States break new daily records Ohio on Thursday saw a record number of new coronavirus infections, and it also reported its highest numbers of hospitalizations and people in intensive care. The state reported 4,961 new Covid-19 cases, with 2,075 people hospitalized and 571 in the ICU. Every county in the state is seeing significant community spread, said Gov. Mike DeWine, who attributed the rise in cases to weddings, funerals and other social gatherings. "It is everywhere," he said. "We can't hide from it. We can't run from it. We've got to face it."

November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000 -The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,271,748 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 116,255 positive tests. (New record)Over 4,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID  Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the July high. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph).By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

'It's a slaughter,' doctors say of new coronavirus wave— Saturday was supposed to see the University of Virginia’s football team face off against Louisville — but then the coronavirus got in the way. Nine players on Louisville’s team had already been sickened. Then several more fell ill, with seven going into quarantine. The game was postponed.  In central Massachusetts, 150 cases of the coronavirus have been linked to the Crossroads Community Church in Fitchburg. “Videos and photos posted to Crossroads’ public Facebook page in weeks prior didn’t seem to show anyone social distancing or wearing masks,” one news report said. And in Amarillo, Texas, a kindergartner reportedly died of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. In Missouri, the disease claimed the life of an election poll worker.The coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than a quarter million Americans did not take a break for last weekend’s Halloween holiday, nor for the presidential election that followed, nor for the subsequent days of political turmoil that continued into this weekend.   Nor has the frustratingly resilient pathogen shown much sympathy for Americans’ growing weariness, their desire to see schools and businesses to reopen, for unremitting talk of “social distancing” and “learning pods” to be relegated to a distant memory. If anything, the virus appears to be strengthening, killing more than 1,000 Americans every day this week while recording more than 100,000 daily infections. More than 50,000 people across the nation are hospitalized. The share of coronavirus diagnostic tests coming back positive has risen to 8.2 percent this week; last week’s share of positive tests was a markedly lower 7.2 percent. “The numbers are pretty scary,” says Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor, taking stock of the national situation. As he was speaking to Yahoo News on Thursday, the nation was on its way to a record 133,000 new cases for that day. Hospitalizations have been rapidly climbing too, leading to concerns that we may once more see what we saw during the spring and early summer: crowded intensive care units, overwhelmed hospitals, deaths that could have been prevented.  “It’s a slaughter,” Hotez said. “We’re going to have to take steps.”

Covid-19: US hits record daily case rise three days running – BBC -- The US reported a third straight daily record for new coronavirus cases on Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 127,000 infections were reported in 24 hours, as well as 1,149 deaths. The news comes as officials announced that White House chief of staff Mark Meadows had also tested positive for the virus. He is the latest Trump administration official to contract the disease. The US is the worst affected nation in the world by Covid-19, with more than 9.7 million confirmed cases and a death toll of more than 230,000. It was not immediately clear how Mr Meadows - who has often appeared at public events without a face mask - was infected. According to the New York Times he first tested positive on Wednesday. Trump election campaign adviser Nick Trainer also has the virus, the paper said. Mr Meadows travelled with the president on the final days of campaigning and was at an election night party attended by dozens of Trump supporters at the White House. The country's coronavirus outbreak was a key policy battleground in the run-up to the 3 November election, and contributed to a surge in postal and early in-person voting. In late October, Mr Meadows said in an interview with CNN that the US was "not going to control the pandemic", saying that Covid-19 could only be defeated by "mitigation areas" like vaccines and therapeutics. President Trump and his wife Melania and son Barron all contracted and recovered from Covid-19 - as did national security adviser Robert O'Brien, senior advisor Stephen Miller and White House counsellor Hope Hicks.

US COVID-19 Cases Top 100k For Record 3rd Straight Day As Hospitalizations Near New Highs: Live Updates -  The US surged to a new record in cases since Thursday. Hospitalizations may be headed for all-time highs, too, and deaths are mounting as the presidency hangs in the balance. So far, COVID-19 hospitalizations have topped 100k on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (remember, these numbers are reported with a 24-hour delay).  Current hospitalizations rose Thursday to the highest since Aug. 5, Covid Tracking Project data show. That’s about 11% below previous peaks in April and July, although the data didn’t capture all states until shortly before the July peak. Now, the hit to the health-care system is getting worse fast: The number of coronavirus patients is up 16% in the past week. The Midwest remains two to three times worse than every other U.S. region, with 548 daily cases per million people, based on the seven-day average.  States posting record cases Thursday included: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and Colorado.  The US saw another 100k+ new COVID-19 cases yesterday, as testing continues to expand, the US has just become the first country in the world to post more than 100k new infections back-to-back. Globally, the world reported nearly 600k new cases back-to-back in another record as European cases also continued to surge. Charts for the hardest-hit countries can all be seen below (courtesy of Bloomberg, which also relies on Johns Hopkins data). The number of confirmed cases globally has reached 48,590,825, according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. The worldwide death toll has hit 1,231,616.  Moving back to the US, Pennsylvania coincidentally saw a record number of new cases yesterday as officials scrambled to count votes and reporters descended on the state in droves. Globally speaking, we also saw a record number of new deaths yesterday, though the number of fatalities has declined since, with 8,111 new deaths around the world. Here's some more COVID-19 news from Friday morning (text courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Russia, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Romania reported surging cases. Meanwhile, U.S., infections increased 1.3% on Friday, with Iowa, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado seeing the biggest single-day rises, Malaysia recorded its largest single-day increase of 1,755 infections on Friday, even as authorities impose tighter movement restrictions.
• Singapore will allow some bars and nightclubs to re-open from next month in a pilot program as it takes another step toward normalization encouraged by dwindling coronavirus cases.
• While the WHO is studying a mutation of SARS-CoV-2 found in an outbreak in Denmark’s mink population, it doesn’t share the European country’s view that the new strain may lessen the effectiveness of current Covid-19 vaccine candidates, WHO’s Executive Director Michael Ryan said at a briefing.
• Norway’s capital has ordered that cinemas, training centers and swimming halls be closed and has banned the service of alcohol to slow a rise in infections. The curbs come after Prime Minister Erna Solberg on Thursday introduced tighter rules nationwide and implored people to stay home.
• Johnson & Johnson will imminently start clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine in South Africa after getting regulatory approval, according to the co-chair of the study in the country. Meanwhile, scientists monitoring wastewater in the Western Cape province detected spikes of the coronavirus in the last three weeks as concerns grow among the government that a lack of compliance with health guidelines may trigger a second wave.
• The rate of increase of Covid-19 infections in England is starting to slow, according to new figures published Friday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics. The total rate of infections rose to one in 90 in the week through Oct. 31 in England, according to new figures published Friday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics. While this up from the previous published rate of 1 in 100, the increase is less steep compared with previous weeks, according to ONS.
• Romania topped 10,000 new coronavirus cases over 24 hours on Friday for the first time since the pandemic started, ahead of nationwide night-time curfew, shopping hour curbs, school closures and mandatory masks coming into force next week. “People will be unhappy with these measures, but they had to be taken before it’s too late,” the government’s virus task force official Raed Arafat said on Friday. “We still expect an increase in cases for now, so we insist to keep these measures in place for at least 30 days so they have an impact.”

November 7 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 56,000  -- The US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections). There were 1,068,815 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 128,396 positive tests. (New record)Almost 7,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.  This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the July high. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. This is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA.

Denmark will cull entire mink population after COVID-19 outbreaks. Denmark plans to cull up to 17 million mink, the country’s entire population, after reports that the animals could pass a coronavirus mutation to humans. The announcement came from Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at a press conference, and there are currently no published scientific reports on the mutation or its effects.The virus has been found at over 200 mink farms in Denmark, which produces most of the world’s mink fur. Over a million animals were already culled on Danish farms in October. This summer, about 100,000 mink were culled in Spain after similar outbreaks. Outbreaks on mink farms in Utah killed thousands of animals.Denmark’s announcement comes after 12 people in the country were found to be infected with a type of the novel coronavirus that had also been found on mink farms. The goal of today’s order is to keep this particular mutation from spreading. “Continued mink breeding will entail a significant risk to public health — both nationally and internationally,” Kare Molbak, executive vice president of Denmark’s infectious disease authority, said at the press conference.Right now, there is no scientific data publicly available on this mutation or its behavior, though Frederiksen claimed today that the variant is less sensitive to antibodies against the virus. It will take more context to understand the mutation and the impact it might have on the trajectory of the pandemic and the development of both treatments and vaccines. “Scientists will update when we have more info,” tweeted virologist Emma Hodcroft, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland.

Denmark To Kill up To 17 Million Farmed Mink To Stop Coronavirus Mutation --Denmark will kill all of its up to 17 million farmed mink after a mutation of the new coronavirus spread from theanimals back to humans, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced Wednesday.  The decision came after authorities found strains in both humans and mink that were less susceptible to antibodies, fueling concern that the new mutation would make any future vaccine less effective, Reuters reported.  "The worst case scenario is a new pandemic, starting all over again out of Denmark," Kare Molbak, director at the State Serum Institute that conducted the tests, said, as Reuters reported.  The institute, which is the Danish authority in charge of managing infectious diseases, said it had found five antibody-resistant cases of COVID-19 in the mink farms and 12 in humans, according to CNN.  Denmark is the world's No. 1 producer of mink fur, according to BBC News. It has struggled to prevent the new coronavirus from spreading across its mink farms for several months now. In October, a million mink within five miles of confirmed or suspected infections were culled, according to CNN.  Frederiksen said Wednesday that the decision to cull the entire population was made with a "heavy heart." "We have a great responsibility towards our own population, but with the mutation that has now been found, we have an even greater responsibility for the rest of the world as well," Frederiksen said. Denmark is not the only place where the new coronavirus has spread to farmed mink and potentially back to humans. A study that has not yet been peer reviewed found evidence that people had contracted the coronavirus from farmed mink in the Netherlands, according to The New York Times. Thousands to hundreds of thousands of mink have been culled in the Netherlands, Spain and Utah because the coronavirus spread to farmed populations, according to BBC News and The New York Times. More than 50 million mink are raised for the fur trade every year, according to BBC News. Scientists are still researching why the animals catch and spread the new coronavirus, but The New York Times pointed out that they are often kept in crowded conditions that encourage the spread of disease. Once infected, they can become very sick and die.

Denmark Covid-19 Virus Mutation Leads to New Restrictions - A new Covid-19 mutation that started in Denmark’s mink population has spread beyond the region in which it was first discovered to the eastern part of the country. Health officials made the announcement as a lockdown was imposed on much of Denmark’s western peninsula of Jutland, home to most of the country’s mink production. Denmark is now in talks with the World Health Organization amid concerns the mutant strain found in the animals may derail efforts to develop a vaccine against Covid-19.Kare Molbak, the country’s top epidemiologist, told reporters that the WHO representatives he spoke with on Thursday made clear they are “very worried” about the findings in Denmark. The mutation affects the spike protein, which could make it particularly hard to fight. Denmark is now taking the drastic step of culling its entire mink population -- up to 17 million animals -- in order to halt the outbreak. Magnus Heunicke, Denmark’s health minister, said there’s at least one known case in the island on which Copenhagen is located of a person being infected with the new strain of the virus. He said he couldn’t rule out that there were more cases. Molbak said Denmark so far hasn’t received reports from other countries with large mink populations, such as the Netherlands, of similar outbreaks. Denmark’s outbreak is “unique,” he said. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the seriousness of the outbreak called for new restrictions in western Denmark. Locals will no longer be able to use public transport and people are being urged to work from home. School children in grades five to eight will have to stay home, she said. There are so far 12 known cases of humans having been infected by the new virus strain in Denmark. Cases of Covid-19 were found in over 200 out of more than 1,100 Danish mink farms, the government said on Wednesday. People who have contracted the new form of the virus don’t appear to be suffering more severe symptoms, according to Danish health officials. The virus was most likely originally transmitted to the mink from humans, and then back again.

Denmark has found 214 people infected with mink-related coronavirus: State Serum Institute (Reuters) - Denmark’s State Serum Institute, which deals with infectious diseases, has found mink-related versions of coronavirus in 214 people since June, according to a report on its website updated on Nov. 5.  One strain of the mutated coronavirus, which has prompted Denmark to cull its entire herd of mink, has however only been found in 12 people and on five mink farms so far.

After delayed and inadequate lockdown measures, COVID-19 second wave overwhelms France - With the Macron administration’s latest coronavirus lockdown measures that are both inadequate and too late, epidemiologists now predict a second wave of the pandemic in France even larger than the first. But the Macron government is determined to maintain economic activity, with no regard for the safety of the population. The disastrous and criminal impact of these policies can already be seen in the accelerating death toll in France. On Tuesday alone, 854 people died from the virus, the highest number since April, and up from 416 the day before. A nurse holds a phone while a COVID-19 patient speaks with his family from the intensive care unit at the Joseph Imbert Hospital Center in Arles, southern France, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole) In an October 28 speech announcing partial lockdown measures, Macron emphasized the European character of the second wave of the pandemic in order to minimize his government’s responsibility. “We are all, in Europe, surprised by the evolution of the virus,” he said. It is as though the continent’s population was bound to a fate independent of any of the actions taken by governments, which, according to Macron, have all been made on the basis of the best available information. This is a clear lie, since a renewed upsurge of the pandemic was noted weeks ago by epidemiologists. But nothing has been done. If the upsurge is now taking place across the continent, it is because every European government has followed essentially the same policy of returning the population to work at all costs. As the virus began to accelerate rapidly, Macron announced curfews in some regions on October 14. Not only did these measures fail to stem the spread of the virus, but it accelerated from a 38 percent increase from October 12 to 18 to an additional 52 percent the following week. Revealing his contempt for the safety of workers and the social interests standing behind his policies, Macron criticized working from home as harmful to the functioning of business. The government’s policies are dictated by its willingness to tolerate catastrophic levels of death. Speaking on October 28, Macron warned that without a new lockdown, “In a few months we will have to mourn at least another 400,000 deaths.” He added that “even if we could open many more beds, and despite our doubling of capacity, who would seriously want thousands of our compatriots to spend weeks in intensive care with the medical consequences that this entails?” Yet that is precisely what Macron has done. The government has allowed cases to increase rapidly, only taking responsive measures when the hospital system and intensive care units were already on the verge of being overwhelmed.

 Surge in coronavirus pandemic produces deadly situation in hospitals throughout Europe  - The massive increase in COVID-19 infections is pushing hospitals throughout Europe to their limits. In Germany, the number of intensive care patients grows daily. Doctors’ representatives and other experts are increasingly warning of the consequences of a shortage of nursing staff and intensive care beds. The Robert Koch Institute reported 1,700 coronavirus patients in Germany’s intensive care units on Friday morning. By Saturday, the figure had risen to 1,830 and by Monday to 2,243. The number of cases subject to intensive care treatment has almost tripled in the past two weeks. Despite these figures, the federal and state governments have not imposed a necessary lockdown, but only highly inconsistent restrictions on contact. Schools and daycare centres remain open so that work can continue in the factories and other workplaces. The German Hospital Federation expects the number of intensive care patients to reach a new peak soon. The head of the organization, Gerald Gass, assumes the previous peak of April will be exceeded in two to three weeks and can no longer be prevented. “Anyone who is admitted to hospital in three weeks is already infected today,” Gass told the Bild newspaper. Due to the extreme shortage of intensive care specialists, Gass announced that nursing staff from non-intensive medical areas would be deployed in intensive care units, which was “not optimal.” This is highly dangerous for patients. The fact that it is nevertheless being considered shows how desperate the situation is. Due to the complex equipment and procedures in intensive care, the use of untrained personnel poses considerable risks. At the same time, training and instruction can hardly be provided adequately due to the stressful situation in the clinics. “There is not much leeway left in some federal states. Berlin has only 14 percent free intensive care beds, Bremen 17 percent,” warned Uwe Janssens, president of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (DIVI). This was also since most clinics are still carrying out their “routine programme.” For many clinics, the urgently needed conversion of capacities to coronavirus cases means financial ruin. While in the spring there was a flat-rate payment to hospitals for keeping a certain number of beds free for coronavirus cases, this no longer exists. At the same time, the care of other acutely ill patients is also at risk. According to a report by broadcaster NDR, a second intensive care unit has now been opened at the University Hospital in Essen. Ninety patients with COVID-19 are being treated there, 27 of whom are receiving intensive medical care.

'Eat out to help out' may have caused fifth of Covid clusters over summer -The treasury’s “eat out to help out” scheme could have directly caused a sixth of new coronavirus case clusters over the summer, new research suggests.The paper, from Thiemo Fetzer, an economist at the University of Warwick, found that the scheme – in which the government funded discounts on food and non-alcoholic drinks at participating businesses Monday to Wednesday throughout August – was closely linked to an increase in cases over the summer.Coronavirus spread more rapidly in areas with a lot of participating restaurants, Fetzer found, and infections in those areas slowed after the scheme ended.Fetzer used rainfall to try to estimate whether the increase was caused by the programme. He found that in areas that had a lot of rain during lunch and dinner hours on Mondays to Wednesday that month, fewer people ate out and fewer people were infected. The same pattern was not visible if it rained on other days of the week, suggesting that the scheme itself was directly responsible for the increase in infections.“The empirical estimates suggest that the scheme may be responsible for around 8-17% of all new detected Covid-19 clusters (at least two new infections in the same area) emerging during August and into early September in the UK,” Fetzer concludes.“Given the dramatic rise of Covid-19 infections across the UK in recent weeks, the likely changes in consumer behaviour due to higher infection risks and the ensuing economic damage this generates suggests that the EOHO [eat out to help out] scheme may have indirect economic and public health costs that vastly outstrip its short-term economic benefits.” But a Treasury spokesperson rejected the economist’s findings. “We do not recognise these figures – which, as the study itself admits, are ‘back-of-the-envelope’ calculations.” “Many other European counterparts have experienced an uptick in cases,” the spokesperson added, “irrespective of whether similar measures for the hospitality industry have been introduced. We’re continuing to work closely with businesses to help them be Covid-secure.”

Coronavirus live news: US breaks new cases record for second straight day as world suffers highest daily deaths - Today is one of the saddest of the pandemic so far.The United States recorded more cases in 24 hours than any country over the course of the pandemic, with 102,000 infections confirmed for Wednesday 4 October, the most recent one day total on Johns Hopkins (there is always a lag in reporting). The country also recorded more than 1,000 deaths for the third time this week, with 1,097 people reported dead in the last 24 hours. The previous record for cases, also held by the US, was 99,321 on 30 October.Globally, the world suffered the highest total one-day death toll of the pandemic so far, with 11,447 people lost in the last day. It also recorded more cases than ever before, partly as a result of rising cases in the US, but also because of Europe’s second wave, and more than 50,000 infections being recorded in India for the first time in 10 days.The global case total was 700,000, taking the world closer to 50m cases – a devastating milestone that we are likely to cross by the end of the week. Cases currently stand at 48,541,340.

• The UK death toll from coronavirus rose by 378, taking the tally of people who died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 to 48,120, government data showed. As of 9am GMT on Thursday, there had been a further 24,141 lab-confirmed cases in the UK, taking the cumulative total of confirmed infections to 1,123,197.
• Colombia’s lower house abruptly ended its session on and asked lawmakers to quarantine after a member tested positive for Covid-19. At least 150 lawmakers could potentially have been exposed, the chamber’s press office said. They have been told to avoid travel to their home regions and remain in Bogota while they wait 72 hours from potential exposure to have a test.
• A dozen US states reported record one-day increases in Covid-19 cases, a day after the country set a record with nearly 105,000 new infections reported on Wednesday, according to a Reuters tally. The outbreak is spreading in every region of the country but is hitting the Midwest the hardest, based on new cases per capita. Illinois reported nearly 10,000 new cases and along with Texas is leading the nation in the most cases reported in the last seven days.Other Midwestern states with record increases in cases on Thursday were Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Ohio. Arkansas, Maine, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Utah and West Virginia also set records for rises in new infections.
• Ireland is on track to get its second wave of Covid-19 infections under control by the end of November when the government hopes to ease some of the strictest restrictions in Europe, a senior public health official said. “The way case numbers are behaving would suggest that case numbers are declining rapidly and that we are on target for the sort of end position we want to be in at the end of the six weeks,” on 1 December, Philip Nolan, the chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, told a press briefing.

Sewage Tests Show Virus Cases Rise in South Africa- South African scientists monitoring wastewater in the Western Cape province detected spikes of the coronavirus in the last three weeks as concerns grow among the government that a lack of compliance with health guidelines may trigger a second wave. The project, spearheaded by an expert team within the South African Medical Research Council, monitored 24 wastewater sites in Cape Town and began at the peak of the outbreak in the city in July. The most comprehensive wastewater study to date, the six-week project now continues on 10 sites and has been expanded to three other provinces, including Gauteng, the country’s commercial hub. “We are definitely seeing an increase in the numbers,” Rabia Johnson, deputy director at the Biomedical Research and Innovation Platform, a unit of the council, said in an interview. “Our data indicates that the virus is still present,” she said.  South Africa relaxed most movement restrictions on Oct. 1 following a strict lockdown imposed in March. As bars and restaurants across the country have reopened and the summer season has started, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize warned last month it’s recording a worrying increase in infections, especially in the Western Cape province.  Wastewater surveillance is one of a handful of strategies around the world being developed to pinpoint emerging hotspots and flare-ups before cases spiral out of control, and serve as an early warning of the re-emergence of Covid-19 in cities. The South African Medical Research Council will make the data available to the public and to health authorities through a dashboard on its website showing weekly trends from different provinces, according to Johnson. The dashboard will be launched this month, she said. South Africa had 732,414 confirmed cases as of Nov. 6 and 19,677 deaths, the most in Africa.

Global coronavirus death toll reaches daily record of over 9,000 --While the world remained riveted to their social media devices and news channels waiting on any decisive results that would determine a hotly contested election in the United States between fascistic Donald Trump and his right-wing Democratic opponent Joe Biden, almost silently and inconspicuously the global death toll from COVID-19 reached a harrowing record daily figure of 9,057, shattering the previous high set on April 17. By every prediction, this is only a prelude to a catastrophic health crisis that threatens to make the last 10 months of the pandemic appear as a dress rehearsal and mere child’s play. The ruling class remains indifferent to the plight of those who, after several days to weeks of struggling for their breath, have perished, their memory blotted out of existence.The Worldometer COVID-19 dashboard estimates total deaths to date attributable to COVID-19 at 1,238,375. The seven-day moving average has edged up to 7,110, exceeding the peak reached in mid-April with 7,047 deaths per day. With an astounding 3,916 deaths on Wednesday, Europe accounted for 43 percent of all the deaths in 24 hours, with infections spreading throughout the continent and eastward. The United States has consistently led in the death counts, now with over 1,000 daily. The world is fast approaching 50 million cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. With each passing month, the rate of daily cases has been climbing. There were 569,546 cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, a single-day high. The seven-day moving average has risen from 400,000 cases per day to over 500,000 per day in less than two weeks. In other words, the rate of new cases will see 15 million added to the overall total each month. Yesterday saw more than 600,000 infections in just one day. Health authorities have repeatedly been warning that the virus is highly contagious and deadly. If it is allowed to spread uncontained, hospitals will reach overcapacity, and intensive care facilities will quickly be overwhelmed. There is a direct correlation between the state of national health care systems and deaths from COVID-19. As cases across Europe have exploded, nation after nation has been forced to reimpose some form of lockdown or restrictions in hopes of containing the transmission while sustaining commerce through half-measures such as curfews, restricted hours and the closing of bars and restaurants. The continent posted a single-day high of over 310,000 cases Wednesday. Greece has joined the UK, France and Germany in imposing a three-week nationwide lockdown. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis admitted that without these restrictions, he feared the health system would rapidly collapse. Greece has seen an exponential rise in cases, now approaching 3,000 per day, a nearly tenfold increase from the same time a month ago. The country has the lowest intensive case unit (ICU) beds per capita in Europe. Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte has issued a nationwide overnight curfew and imposed tighter restrictions in regions where infections are surging and available hospital beds are running short. With a single-day high of 34,505 cases Wednesday, Italy had 428 deaths. The highest death count, on March 27, was 921. With hospitals and ICUs reaching capacity, countries like Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK have attempted to introduce half-measures to check the population’s movement. Frustrations are mounting. Protesters in Spain clashed with police over the weekend against the restrictions. Health Minister Roberto Speranza, a proponent of a national lockdown, said, “The epidemiologic curve is still very high. What worries me is the absolute figure, which shows a terrifying curve. Either we bend it, or we are in trouble.”

World coronavirus cases to soar past 50 million - On Saturday, the number of confirmed global cases of the coronavirus pandemic will rocket past the grim milestone of 50 million. One in every 156 people on the planet have so far caught the disease, with no end in sight. Of those who contracted it, over 1.2 million have lost their lives to the deadly contagion, including more than 9,000 on Friday alone. It was just over two months ago that the world witnessed its 25 millionth case, on August 28. Daily new cases regularly exceed 500,000 and are well on their way to three-quarters of a million.  If these trends are allowed to continue, there may be 100 million cases by the end of the year, surging at a rate of 1 million cases each day. As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently told the Washington Post, “It’s not a good situation. All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.” One of the sharpest dangers is that hospitals become too overwhelmed to treat all of their patients. This is already taking place in El Paso, Texas and in various locations across Europe. As was witnessed in Wuhan, China; Lombardy, Italy and, to a lesser extent, New York City in the early days of the pandemic, the death rate skyrockets when there are not enough supplies and medical personnel to properly treat every patient. While the rate of new deaths to new cases is currently at just above one percent, it is likely that this number will spike if the coronavirus continues its essentially uncontrolled spread. The United States alone has recorded more than 10 million instances of infection, along with 242,000 deaths. The state of Texas surpassed the 1 million mark on Friday, placing it after the nation of Colombia as the tenth most infected region in the world. It is closely followed by California, which has more than 960,000 cases. Combined, they have over 37,000 deaths, more than all but eight other countries (excluding the US as a whole). Amid such calamitous numbers in the US and internationally, President Donald Trump’s fascistic former adviser Steve Bannon called for Dr. Fauci’s beheading. During his podcast Thursday, which has since been taken down by Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, Bannon declared that Trump should start his second term by “firing Wray, firing Fauci.” ("Wray" refers to FBI Director Christopher Wray). He continued, in medieval fashion, “I’d actually like to go back to the old times of Tudor England. I’d put their heads on pikes, right, I’d put them at the two corners of the White House as a warning to federal bureaucrats, you either get with the program or you're gone.” Fauci is widely recognized as one of the foremost authorities on infectious diseases, who rose to national prominence in the 1980s for his work combating the HIV/AIDS outbreaks in the United States. He has increasingly come under right-wing attack over the past several weeks for his criticisms of Trump’s policy, or rather lack thereof, in handling the pandemic, in the lead-up to the presidential election.

'Major Victory': Federal Court Rejects FDA Approval of 'Frankenfish' - Food safety campaigners on Thursday welcomed a federal court's finding that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) violated U.S. law in its approval of genetically engineered salmon.  "This decision underscores what scientists have been telling FDA for years — that creating genetically engineered salmon poses an unacceptable risk if the fish escape and interact with our wild salmon and that FDA must understand that risk to prevent harm," said Steve Mashuda, managing attorney at Earthjustice, one of the organizations representing plaintiffs in the case. "Our efforts should be focused on saving the wild salmon populations we already have," said Mashuda, "not manufacturing new species that pose yet another threat to their survival." The lawsuit stems from Earthjustice and Center for Food Safety's 2016 legal challenge to the FDA's approvalof the so-called "frankenfish" engineered by aquaculture firm AquaBounty.  Federal Judge Vince Chhabria of the U.S. District for the Northern District of California found that the FDA violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Endangered Species Act (ESA), writing, in part: [T]he FDA did not adequately explain in its environmental assessment why the potential impacts of the production and growth of engineered salmon will be insignificant. The central problem is that the document failed to conduct the very inquiry it stated was necessary. In the section describing the "approach to assessment," the environmental assessment stated that an analysis of environmental risk would need to consider two probabilities: the probability of "exposure," or a bad event, and the probability of harm that could occur given exposure. The document thoroughly analyzed the probability of exposure, concluding that it was low. But it failed to assess and explain the potential consequences of that low probability being realized.  [...]  Because the FDA did not sufficiently examine whether the engineered salmon would significantly impact wild salmon under NEPA, it follows that the agency cannot defend its conclusion that the engineered salmon would have no effect at all on Gulf of Maine salmon. . Chhabria sent the assessment back to the FDA, ordering the agency to "reconsider its 'no effect' determination under the ESA together with its revised NEPA evaluation."

 Colorado Votes to Reintroduce Wolves, Approving Historic Ballot Initiative  - The voters of Colorado have made history by electing to reintroduce gray wolves to the state. The opponents of Proposition 114, as the measure was called, conceded Thursday, National Geographic reported. As of that afternoon, the plan to reintroduce wolves had 1,495,523 votes for and 1,475,235 against with 90 percent of the votes counted. However, the remaining 10 percent were all from pro-wolf areas. The proposition's victory marks the first time the decision to reintroduce an animal species has been made at the ballot box. It also comes exactly one week after the Trump administration announced it would removeEndangered Species Act protections for gray wolves in the lower 48 states.  "This is a great victory for wolves coming on the heels of Trump's illegal action to remove federal protection, and it will help restore the natural balance in Colorado's Rocky Mountains," Center for Biological Diversity(CBD) senior conservation advocate Michael Robinson said in a press release. "The people of the Colorado have helped turn the page on a brutal chapter of our history that saw wolves exterminated across the West."  Gray wolves once roamed across most of the U.S., but hunting and trapping almost drove them to extinction by the start of the twentieth century, National Geographic pointed out. Colorado became the first Rocky Mountain state to put a bounty on wolves in 1869, and the last wolf in the state was killed in 1945, according to the CBD. Wolves were granted Endangered Species Act protections in the 1970s and were reintroduced into Yellowstone National Park and Idaho in 1995 and 1996, according to National Geographic. From there, they have spread to Montana, Washington State, Oregon and northern California. However, they have not recovered their historic range and remain missing from states like Maine, Utah and Colorado, which is one reason why scientists argued the Trump administration's decision to delist wolves was premature. Supporters of wolf reintroduction argue that wolves play an important role in Western ecosystems, National Geographic pointed out. They help to manage deer and elk populations, boost smaller predators like foxes by competing with and killing coyotes and provide food for scavengers including wolverines and bears.

 New locust outbreak hits Southern Africa, 45 million people at risk of food shortage - A new locust outbreak has been reported in parts of Southern Africa in October 2020, threatening wide swaths of crops and grasslands. Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, South Africa, and Angola have been affected so far, and according to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), 45 million people could face food shortages. Parts of southern Africa are now facing a new locust plague following a similar one that has swept through East Africa this year. In Eastern Cape, South Africa, the outbreak has been reported in the Sarah Baartman and Chris Hani districts. According to the Department of Rural Development and Agrarian Reform, about 127 farms have been suffering from the swarms' infestations. "The outbreak is in the Karoo parts of the Eastern Cape, where the insects are competing with livestock for grass. But if they are not controlled they might migrate to crops and vegetables," said the department's entomologist, Nolitha Skenjana. On October 29, Eben du Plessis of Agri Eastern Cape said it would be too early to identify the impacts. "They are moving east. They come from the Northern Cape and hatch at a drier area and start moving east. At this stage, there’s not a lot of damage." "Locusts go through about five stages of development and are currently walking. They hatch and find each other and create swarms. They do eat, but the damage is minimal," he explained. "It becomes difficult to locate them. You have to wait for the weather to cool in the late afternoon, and as it gets darker they settle down for the night. That’s when you spray them." He continued, "When they settle down they’ve doubled in size, are hungry and need more energy, and that’s when they do a lot of damage." "This is a developing crisis. You can only see the impact once it’s done because they are hatching as they go," du Plessis reiterated. "They can be vigilant and look out for locusts and report them to make sure they are sprayed. That is basically all they can do. In the past farmers have tried to burn tires and old motor oil to create a barrier, but that’s not really effective." Other southern African countries that reported new outbreaks were Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Angola. This has put the livelihoods of farmers and cattle herders at stake, who have already been dealing with food shortages. SADC warned that 45 million people could also face food shortages as a result of the devastation.

Emails show pesticide industry effort to influence AMR guidelines - Public records obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity indicate that a trade group that represents the pesticide industry helped shape the US government's position on international guidelines for monitoring foodborne antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Emails between officials with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and representatives of CropLife America, obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity through the Freedom of Information Act, show a concerted effort by the trade group, and other agribusiness groups, to urge the removal of language regarding crops and fungicides from draft guidance created by the Codex Intergovernmental Task Force on Antimicrobial Resistance.That guidance, which is still being finalized, will provide standards for how countries should monitor, and try to minimize, AMR in food. It will eventually be incorporated into the Codex Alimentarius, a collection of voluntary standards and codes of practice that guide safe and fair food practices in international trade.  The email exchanges between US officials and CropLife representatives in 2018 show that the trade group was particularly concerned about any references to fungicides in the task force recommendations."I want to make certain I am correct in assuming that this document and associated comments do not address fungicide use," Ray McAllister, PhD, senior director of regulatory policy for CropLife America, wrote to officials with the US Codex Office in March 2018, in response to their request to review and provide feedback on US edits and comments on the Codex task force's "Draft Guidelines on Integrated Monitoring and Surveillance of Foodborne Antimicrobial Resistance."  The emails also show that CropLife, along with the California Citrus Quality Council, was opposed to even including discussion of crops in the document at all. McAllister said he doubted that monitoring crops for drug-resistant pathogens would serve any public health purpose, and was skeptical that antibiotic-resistant human pathogens are going to originate from crops.

A Few Heavy Storms Cause a Big Chunk of Nitrogen Pollution From Midwest Farms - Some effects of extreme weather are visible – like half a million acres of flattened corn in Iowa left behind after a derecho that hit the Midwestern United States on Aug. 10. Other effects are harder to measure, but can be just as harmful. One example is agricultural nitrogen runoff from farmlands in the Mississippi River Basin. It mainly comes from fertilizer that farmers apply to millions of acres of crops. Plants can't use all of the nitrogen in fertilizer because fertilizers are usually applied in excess. This excess can wash off farm fields into local rivers and lakes, degrading water quality and stimulating algae blooms. Traveling down the Mississippi River, it contributes to the yearly formation of a dead zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico, covering several thousand square miles; oxygen levels there are so low that fish and shellfish cannot survive.  Excess nitrogen in drinking water also threatens public health. Ingesting high levels of nitrate, a nitrogen compound, can reduce red blood cells' ability to transport oxygen, a condition that is especially dangerous for infants. My work as a quantitative ecologist examines how ecosystems respond to external factors such as adding nitrogen. In a recently published study, I worked with colleagues to quantify nitrogen runoff from land into rivers and streams. We found that infrequent but heavy rainfall events account for one-third of annual total runoff and nitrogen leaching from soils across the Mississippi Basin. This tells us that managing nitrogen is likely to be more challenging if climate change continues to make heavy rains more frequent. Climate records show that over the past 20 years, a growing share of annual precipitation has come in heavy rainfall events across two-thirds of the Mississippi River Basin's land area. The region that receives a total of more than 15.7 inches (400 millimeters) of heavy rain per year has expanded from areas in Louisiana and Arkansas northward to Corn Belt states like Illinois and Indiana, where nitrogen fertilizer is heavily used. We found that one-third of annual total runoff and nitrogen leaching loss come from heavy rainfall events, which happen on only about nine days per year on average across the basin. Nearly half to three-quarters of heavy rainfall in the basin occurs in spring and summer, with a monthly peak in May. This timing coincides with the planting and seed germinating stages of corn, when the plants are usingminimal amounts of nitrogen. We wondered whether changing when and how farmers apply fertilizer could reduce nitrogen runoff.

 Soybean Prices Hit Four-Year High As China Demand Ticks Up (graphics) Chicago soybean futures rose to a four-year high on Thursday morning, as dry weather in South America and increasing demand from China supported prices. "China is actively buying beans and we are seeing additional demand emerge from Brazil," a Singapore-based commodity trader said, who was quoted by Reuters. The trader continued: "The weather is not perfect for Brazil and the crop is likely to get delayed due to the dry weather." November soybean contracts trading on the Chicago Board of Trade were up more than 1% Thursday morning, trading around $10.95 per bushel, climbing to the highest level since July 2016. Reuters notes La Nina weather pattern remains a risk for crops across South America. Their commodity desk said Brazil's soybean-growing areas recorded rain this week, but other surrounding areas need moisture. Commodity traders will be closely watching the USDA Nov. 10 supply/demand reports, which some experts believe it could show "scaled-back U.S. soybean yields and increased export forecasts," said Reuters. Reuters' Karen Braun said, "China's strong return to the U.S. soybean market in recent months has single-handedly lifted U.S. farm exports to the Asian country to new records, and the heavy forward shipping schedule bodes well for the promises outlined in the Phase 1 trade agreement between the two countries." Even though China's demand for U.S. farm goods has increased late in the year - it's likely trade commitments outlined in the Phase 1 agreement won't be met this year. China is way behind in farm good purchases.

Can Texas Stop Its Taps From Running Dry? - In many ways, the story of Texas over the last century is the state's devout allegiance to the principle that mankind has dominion over nature.   The state's principal water research agency projects that demand for fresh water will increase dramatically by mid-century as supplies steadily drop, precipitating what looks like an inevitable supply crisis.   “Texas does not understand shortages," said Dr. Larry McKinney, one of the state's top water researchers and the former director of the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, a unit of Texas A&M University in Corpus Christi. "It's the Texas mentality. Texas is so big we've had a hard time coming to grips that resources are finite. We really never had to deal with that. Frankly, we're reaching that point."  The Texas Water Development Board found that by 2070 the state's population will grow to 51 million people, 22 million more than today. The state's annual demand for water, the State Water Board projects, will climb to 21.6 million acre-feet (27 trillion liters), up from 18.4 million.   At the same time, a severe drought will bring increasing constraint. State authorities project that in a drought comparable to the most severe on record, water supplies will fall over the next 50 years from 15.2 million acre-feet to 13.6 million acre-feet (17 trillion liters). During the driest periods, more people will have considerably less water.  Two generations ago, about 40,000 people made their homes in Hays County, an epic, rural, rolling masterpiece of space and sky close to Austin and San Antonio. Authorities in Hays counted 14,000 homes that were supplied with water from the Trinity Aquifer, a giant freshwater reserve that lay below. In both wet years and dry, water was readily available. Four decades later, Hays County has grown to 222,000 residents and 75,000 housing units. The Trinity Aquifer is tapped out. Since 2003, a pipeline from Lake Travis, a reservoir near Austin, has provided developers with sufficient water to continue building big subdivisions.  But a study by the Hill Country Alliance and the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University in San Marcos found that the piped water encouraged more drilling fo water wells into the aquifer. In one area, they found that pumping jumped from just over 3 million gallons annually to 90 million gallons (409 million liters).  The idea of the sanctity of economic expansion produces all manner of conflict and turmoil about water throughout Texas. The annual $1.89 trillion Texas economy, the second-largest state economy and ninth-largest in the world, is entirely dependent on access to adequate supplies of water.   The 2011 drought caused more than $7 billion in agricultural losses, and indirect costs of $16.9 billion. From 1980 to 2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Texas also led all states, by far, in losses from severe storms and flooding. In 2017 alone, Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 storm that stalled near Houston, caused $125 billion in damages.   "Water is the economy in Texas," said McKinney. "It drives everything, particularly as you get less of it."

Delhi shivers through unusual cold, records coldest October since 1962, India - Delhi's mean minimum temperature in October 2020 was 17.2 °C (63 °F)-- the coldest since 1962, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). As cool temperatures persisted, the mercury plunged to 10.8 °C (51.4 °F) on November 2-- the coldest of the season so far. The temperatures were unusually below average in October, and it was the first time the mercury pummeled below 13 °C (55.4 °F) since 2007. The Safdarjung observatory in Delhi recorded a mean temperature of 17.2 °C (63 °F) last month, making it the coldest in 58 years when it was 16.9 °C (62.4 °F), the IMD confirmed. Normally, the national capital records a mean temperature of 19.1 °C (66.4 °F) in October. On October 29, the minimum temperature pummeled to 12.5 °C (54.5 °F), which was the lowest in the month of October in 26 years. The last time the city recorded such a low temperature was on October 31, 1994, when the mercury dipped to 12.3 °C (54.1 °F). According to Kuldeep Srivastava, head of IMD's regional forecasting center, the absence of cloud cover is a major reason for the cold temperatures this time. Calm winds also allow the formation of mist and fog, contributing to the minimum temperatures. On Monday, November 2, Delhi registered a new record low of 10.8 °C (51.4 °F), which was the coldest of the season so far. The IMD noted that Delhi's average low during the first week of November is around 16 °C (60.8 °F). The Indian Express said temperatures were unusually below average in October, and it was the first time since 2007 that temperatures lower than 13 °C (55.4 °F) has been observed in this month.

'Catastrophic' hailstorm and a month's worth of rain in an hour slam Queensland, Australia - (pictures, video) A catastrophe has been declared in Queensland after severe thunderstorms, tennis ball-sized hail, and flash flooding pounded the state's southeast on October 31, 2020, with Brisbane receiving a month's worth of rain in an hour of 80 mm (3 inches), according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). It was the first catastrophe declaration for the 2020/21 natural disaster season, with insured losses estimated at 60 million dollars, thousands of emergency calls reported, and 42 000 people left without power. Severe thunderstorms and hail up to 14 cm (5.5 inches) in diameter pounded the state's southeast region. Beachmere recorded 80 mm (3 inches) while The Upper Lockyer received 70 mm (2.7 inches), which was "a month's rain in the space of an hour," according to meteorologist Felim Hanniffy.  The amount of rain was "very hard to get rid of," said meteorologist Rosa Hoff. "[It was] very damp indeed.""The hail was as big as my shoulder," said local Boston Willcox. "It was pretty big.""It just started hailing into the room, the whole house and my whole room collapsed," Springfield Lakes student Dominic Pirlo described.  The violent weather resulted in flooding and damages, with the Insurance Council of Australia receiving more than 5 000 claims. The estimated loss amount to 60 million dollars, the majority of which were motor vehicles, while the rest were house damage, including roofs, solar panels, and skylights.  The Fire and Emergency Service reported more than 1 300 people called for assistance. Energex also reported more than 42 000 consumers were left without power.  A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Capricorina and northern Wide Bay as severe storms "are likely to produce hail and damaging winds over the next several hours," BOM warned Monday, November 2.

 State of emergency in Sanharo after nearly 6 months' worth of rain in a day, Brazil -- The city of Sanharo in Pernambuco, Brazil, has declared a state of emergency after heavy rains caused major flooding in several areas of the city on Monday, November 2, 2020. According to the state's water and climate agency (APAC), 288.8 mm (11.4 inches) of rain was recorded in a 24 hour period, which was equivalent to almost half a year's average. Meteorologists said the amount of rain is unusual for the month of November, which is commonly a dry month.Around 300 people were left homeless after floods triggered by heavy rains hit Sanharo. This prompted the city government to declare a state of emergency and accommodated the displaced victims at gymnasiums and schools.Videos on social media showed floods at several points in the city, sweeping away vehicles.APAC reported that several municipalities in Agreste and Sertao have been affected, and the latter received the largest volume of rain, as well as wind gusts of over 60 km/h (37 mph). In Petrolina, a portion of a hospital's roof collapsed due to strong winds and heavy rains. In a 24-hour period, Sanharo received 288 mm (11.4 inches) of rain, which was nearly half a year's average of 644 mm (25.3 inches). Meteorological services also noted that this amount was one of the largest in Brazil. "The influence of La Niña caused the phenomenon to move further north," meteorologist Roni Guedes explained. "November is a dry month. The average is very low of 11 mm (0.4 inches). It is very rare to rain so much at one point."

Hurricane "Eta" forms in the Caribbean Sea, life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic flash flooding and landslides expected - Tropical Storm "Eta" formed on November 1, 2020, and strengthened into a hurricane at 09:00 UTC on Monday, November 2. The official forecast calls for rapid intensification and Eta could very well be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Nicaragua. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat. Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, flash flooding, and landslides are expected across portions of Central America.

• Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua early Tuesday, November 3, NHC forecasters noted. 
• Through Friday evening, November 6, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
• A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. 
• Water levels could reach as high as 3 to 4.5 m (10 to 15 feet) above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
• Eta is the 12^th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 3 other hurricane season in the Atlantic have had 12+ hurricanes -- 1969 (12), 2005 (15), and 2010 (12).
• Eta was named on November 1 as the 28^th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season to date. 2020 has now tied 2005 for the most named storms to form in the Atlantic in a single season on record, Dr. Philip Klotzbach noted.

Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Eta on verge of Category 5 with 150 mph winds — A potentially catastrophic Hurricane Eta continues to gain strength as it heads for Central America, and forecasters are warning of massive massive flooding and landslides across a vulnerable region. Rainfall totals are likely to be measured in in feet rather than inches. Eta is still a Category 4 hurricane but it's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph Monday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center. If it reaches 157 mph or higher, it would be a Category 5. The small but intense hurricane is east of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, moving west/southwest at 9 mph. It's expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday. It is only the fifth storm on record to reach Category 4 status in the month of November.

Extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane "Eta" makes landfall in Nicaragua - Hurricane "Eta" rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on Monday and Tuesday, November 2 and 3, 2020, before it made landfall in Nicaragua at around 21:00 UTC (16:00 EST) on November 3.

• The center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. 
• The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday, November 6.
• While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week, NHC warns.

Evacuation orders have been issued for coastal areas in Nicaragua and Honduras, while in Nicaragua, red alerts have been declared for the Autonomous Region of the Northern Caribbean and the Mining Triangle ahead of the landfall.   The eyewall of extremely dangerous Hurricane "Eta" is moving onshore along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, NHC forecasters said at 18:00 UTC (13:00 EST). Life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds, flash flooding, and landslides are expected across portions of Central America. At the time, the center of Eta was located about 35 km (20 miles) SSE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h (140 mph), making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Eta was moving W at 6 km/h (3 mph) and had a minimum central pressure of 940 hPa. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi. Eta made landfall at around 21:00 UTC on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, just south of Puerto Cabezas (population 39 000) with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h (140 mph). The storm was moving W at 7 km/h (5 mph) and had a minimum central pressure of 940 hPa. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 km (25 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force up to 185 km (115 miles). A faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday, November 6.

 Record-setting Hurricane Eta batters Central America - Hurricane Eta intensified at an almost unprecedented pace Tuesday, reaching winds surpassing 150 mph before hitting Puerto Cabezas, the largest town in the North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region of Nicaragua, with a population of over 60,000. The Nicaraguan authorities have already reported significant flooding, along with damage to homes and public infrastructure. More than 30,000 people were evacuated from Puerto Cabezas and other coastal communities. Hundreds have already been evacuated in neighboring Honduras due to severe flooding as the hurricane drops massive quantities of water from the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean on the impoverished Central American isthmus. The Honduran chief of emergency operations, Marvin Aparicio, reported the death of a child due to a landslide, which is still being investigated. In an already record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Eta neared Category 5 (157 mph or higher). Some models indicate that it might have reached this category before landfall, which would make it the first Atlantic storm to reach Category 5 in November since 1932. Eta matched the 2005 record as the 28th named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which specialists indicate is far from over.  After reaching Category 1 late Sunday night, the US National Hurricane Center forecasted that it would hit the coast as a Category 2 storm, but it picked up energy from the warm Caribbean waters at such speed that it reached almost Category 5 in just one day. Its pressure fell to the lowest in this hurricane season, another measure of its strength. Princeton University climate scientist Kieran Bhatia found that Eta’s last three 24-hour intensity changes were “off the chart” compared to the Atlantic November storms since 1982. Awestruck Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami, tweeted Monday night, “Absolutely unreal. Rarely do we witness this anywhere in the world. Eta became a monster today.” The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned of a massive 14- to 21-foot storm surge in Nicaragua and “catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding” across portions of all of Central America, as well as heavy rain in southern Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and southern Haiti through Friday evening. Costa Rica had reported 32 floods and eight landslides in the southwest due to the indirect impact of Hurricane Eta, with hundreds forced to go into shelters. The danger of landslides and flooding is especially high in Guatemala and El Salvador. Just last Thursday at midnight, about 100 families were caught unawares by a landslide in the Salvadoran town of Nejapa, killing nine. According to El Faro, the government failed to communicate a warning of flooding upstream. El Salvador raised its emergency status to “red” over Hurricane Eta.

Eta's Path of Destruction Continues With Flooding in Central America -- The storm formerly known as Hurricane Eta slowly dragged across Honduras Wednesday, dumping heavy rains across the region and prompting emergency flood and landslide warnings.A 15-year-old boy drowned in a rain-swollen river, bringing the storm's direct death toll to four. Hundreds of homes were destroyed by floodwaters in San Pedro Sula alone, according to the city's mayor. At least 38 Honduran communities have been cut off by washed-out roads, and five bridges in the country were wiped out by swollen rivers.La Prensa Nicaragua also reported multiple Indigenous communities were forced to self-evacuate and were caught unaware after officials failed to warn them of Hurricane Eta's arrival. Some of those communities are the same that were violently attacked by settlers earlier this year. Eta, which is now a Tropical Depression but may strengthen to a Tropical Storm, is currently projected to hit Cuba and Florida, bringing heavy rains and flooding to the Southeast U.S.As reported by The Associated Press, Eta left destruction across the city of Bilwi on the northern Nicaragua coast:"The debris teams are starting to work and we still can't give a sense of what happened," said Ivania Díaz, a local government official in Bilwi. "We have seen very humble homes completely destroyed."South of Bilwi, closer to where Eta came ashore Tuesday, the seaside Miskito community of Wawa Bar was devastated. The military had evacuated the community before Eta hit, but what residents found Wednesday was distressing. Wind-twisted trees, shredded roofs and some structures damaged beyond recognition sat within view of the sea. "There's nothing standing here," an unidentified resident told a local television station. "Wawa Bar is now a Miskito community where destruction reigns."

Storm Eta: Guatemala landslide kills at least 50 - BBC News - At least 50 people have been killed by landslides in Guatemala after Storm Eta's torrential rain and high winds battered the Central American country. Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said around half the deaths were in a single town where a hillside collapse buried some 20 houses under thick mud. Eta made landfall in neighbouring Nicaragua as a hurricane on Tuesday. It was later downgraded to a tropical storm. Mr Giammattei said a month's worth of rain had fallen in less than half a day during an impromptu press conference on Thursday. Ongoing heavy rain has left rescue workers unable to reach one of the worst-affected areas, including the town of San Cristobal Verapaz, which is home to half of the reported casualties. "Right now, we're trying to get there on foot because there's no other way," Mr Giammattei said. Eta first hit Nicaragua as a Category Four hurricane with winds of 140mph (225km/h) and torrential rains. It then weakened into a tropical depression as it moved into neighbouring Honduras and later Guatemala. Across the Central American region, Eta is believed to have killed more than 70 people, the Reuters news agency reports. In Nicaragua, tens of thousands of people were evacuated to shelters before the hurricane struck. On the country's north coast, two men were killed when a landslide buried the mine where they were working. In neighbouring Honduras, a 13-year-old girl died in the city of San Pedro Sula when the wall of her home collapsed onto the bed where she slept. The government said around 500 Hondurans were rescued from their roofs on Thursday as water levels kept rising, while many more were likely still stranded, according to Reuters. Photos from storm-hit regions in Honduras and Guatemala showed people wading through flooded streets, while houses and cars were near submerged by floodwaters. In its latest advisory, the US National Hurricane Center said Eta is still causing heavy rains and life-threatening flooding over parts of Central America. The storm is expected to regain strength this weekend as it moves north-east towards Cuba and Florida.

At least 50 killed after Eta dumps extremely heavy rain on Guatemala, more than 70 across Central Ameraca (videos) At least 50 people have been killed in Guatemala after heavy rain dumped by Tropical Cyclone "Eta" caused floods and landslides. As of Friday, November 6, Eta is blamed for the deaths of more than 70 people across Central America. According to the Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei, some 25 people have been killed in the town of San Cristobal Verapaz after a hillside collapse buried ~20 homes under a thick layer of mud, BBC reports. In a press conference on Thursday, November 5, Giammattei said a month's worth of rain had fallen on parts of the country in less than half a day. By November 5, authorities confirmed at least 11 deaths in Honduras, 2 in Nicaragua, 2 in Costa Rica, and 2 in Panama. At least 8 other people in Panama are missing. 60 fishermen who went missing on Tuesday, November 3, were rescued from the cays they took shelter on.  Eta made landfall at around 21:00 UTC on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, just south of Puerto Cabezas (population 39 000), Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h (140 mph) -- Category 4 hurricane. It weakened to a tropical depression after landfall but continued dumping very heavy rain, damaging homes, roads and bridges across the region.At 09:00 UTC on November 6, the center of Tropical Depression "Eta" was located about 180 km (110 miles) NNW of La Ceiba, Honduras. It had maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph) and was moving N at 13 km/h (8 mph). Heavy rains and life-threatening flooding continue over portions of Central America. A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, November 7 and be near Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, November 8.

Eta's second act: Florida now in storm's path after it made landfall in Nicaragua as Category 4  -- Eta made landfall Tuesday afternoon as a strong 140 mph Category 4 hurricane in Nicaragua, making it the strongest hurricane to strike that country since 2007.By Wednesday morning, it had weakened to a tropical storm, but life-threatening flash flooding continued for portions of Central America.As of the 10 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Eta had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, was located 135 miles north-northeast of Managua, Nicaragua, and was moving west at 7 mph. The slow motion of Eta since landfall has meant it moved only about 100 miles inland in 24 hours while producing intense amounts of rainfall and relentless winds for hours.Even though Eta is forecast to weaken to a depression or remnant low, it is still expected to produce catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across Central America. Flash and river flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands through the end of the week.By Friday, focus turns to Eta's potential "second act" and its forecast in respect to the United States.On Friday, Eta is forecast to emerge out over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and restrengthen to a tropical storm by sometime Saturday.On Sunday, it is forecast to affect Cuba and by late Sunday or early Monday, it will be approaching the Florida Keys and southern Florida. There is significant uncertainty in the intensity and exact timing for Florida, but people there, as well as those all along the Gulf Coast, should monitor and prepare for, at the very least, wet and windy conditions beginning late Sunday into early next week.So far this season, there have been a record-breaking 11 landfalls on the U.S. mainland. Remarkably, none of those have been in the state of Florida.

Florida in the path of Eta and it could become a hurricane again - The 2020 hurricane season continues its relentless onslaught as Eta, the 28th named storm of the season, lashes Central America with torrential rains and whipping winds. Typically Central America is a graveyard for hurricanes — but not Eta. Increasingly, forecasters are concerned Eta will reemerge over the warm Caribbean waters and then head toward Florida this weekend. Eta weakened over land overnight, and the one-time fierce hurricane was a tropical depression as of 10 a.m. ET Thursday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. But Eta is expected to head into the Caribbean Friday and move northeastward. The models show the system reorganizing, with some modest restrengthening this weekend over the Caribbean and the Florida Straits, north of Cuba. On this path at least two more landfalls seem likely: Cuba on Sunday and possibly South Florida on Monday. If Eta makes landfall along the U.S. coastline, it would break the record for the most named storms to make a U.S. landfall in a season, at 12. If it regains hurricane strength, that would break the record for most landfalling U.S. hurricanes. As of Thursday morning, Eta was over Honduras and moving northwest. The system is forecast to keep dumping torrential rains and cause flash flooding. The hurricane center said it "will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure" Thursday morning.

 Eta strengthening on its way toward Cuba, warnings issued for Cayman Islands, Cuba, Bahamas and Florida - Tropical Cyclone "Eta" -- blamed for the deaths of more than 170 people in Central America over the past few days -- is expected to gradually re-strengthen on its approach to Cuba as it remains over warm waters and in a region of upper-level diffluence. Eta's center will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or South Florida Sunday night and Monday, November 9. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off in strength, and likely become asymmetric, NHC forecaster Cangialosi noted on November 7. When Eta interacts and merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida. The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward. Heavy rainfall is now diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

Super Typhoon "Goni" hits Philippines as the strongest storm of the year -- Super Typhoon "Goni" made landfall in the Philippines over Bato, Catanduanes at 20:50 UTC (04:50 LT, November 1) and Tiwi, Albay at 23:20 UTC on October 31, 2020, with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h (140 mph) and gusts to 280 km/h (174 mph) -- which made it equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the strongest tropical cyclone of the year and the strongest to hit the Philippines since Super Typhoon "Haiyan" killed more than 6 300 people in 2013.

• Goni, known as Rolly in the Philippines, is the 6^th tropical cyclone to hit the Philippines since October 1 and one of the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded on Earth.
• The storm underwent rapid intensification prior to landfall; from 65 km/h (40 mph) at 12:00 UTC on October 28 to 290 km/h (180 mph) at 12:00 UTC on October 30.
• Authorities have evacuated about 1 million people before landfall.

First reports mention at least 4 casualties in the Bicol region, power outages, flash floods and widespread damage. The deaths included one person who was hit by a tree and a 5-year-old child washed away after a river overflowed.Bicol Governor Al Francis Bichara said he also received reports of volcanic mudflows, as well as electricity supply and communication service outages."We are expecting major damage," said Ricardo Jalad, head of the Philippines' National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). "There are so many people who are really in vulnerable areas." The capital Manila is in the projected path of the storm, with the weather bureau predicting intense rainfall and storm surges for the city. Armed Forces of the Philippines chief-of-staff Gen. Gilbert Gapay urged all troops tapped to conduct disaster response missions to focus on their tasks."Today let's focus (on) the task at hand to help our countrymen particularly those situated along the path of Super Typhoon Rolly," Gapay said, adding to expect the worst as the cyclone threatens Metro Manila, Bicol Region and Central Luzon.

Typhoon Goni, One of the Strongest Storms on Record, Slams the Philippines - Typhoon Goni, one of the most powerful storms on record, slammed into the Philippines Sunday, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and killing at least 16.The storm came as the Philippines grapples with one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in Southeast Asia, which complicated evacuations. The country has reported more than 383,000 cases and more than 7,200 deaths, according to The Guardian."This typhoon has smashed into people's lives and livelihoods on top of the relentless physical, emotional and economic toll of Covid-19," Philippine Red Cross chairman Richard Gordon told The Guardian.  The storm destroyed tens of thousands of homes and displaced around 370,000 people, BBC News reported. Two million people were impacted overall and more than 100 towns and cities lost power, according to The Washington Post. The cost in crop damage stood at more than $22 million, impacting around 20,000 farmers. Just before it made landfall on Catanduanes Island Sunday, the storm had winds of 195 miles per hour, making it the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. However, passing over the island weakened the storm, and by midday it was the strength of a Category 4 hurricane. It was downgraded to a tropical storm by the end of the day, The New York Times reported.On Catanduanes Island, the storm killed at least six people and cut off water, electricity and cell phone coverage, the Philippine Red Cross told BBC News. In the town of Virac, the first major population center in the storm's path, the Red Cross estimated that 80 to 90 percent of the buildings were damaged.The storm then moved on to the Philippines' most populous island of Luzon, home to the capital of Manila. However, the storm largely spared the capital, The New York Times pointed out. Instead, the Bicol region took the brunt of the damage. At least 10 people died in Albay Province, BBC News reported, including a five-year-old boy. Two people drowned, one was crushed by a tree and one was caught in volcanic mud.Volcanic debris also buried more than 300 homes in the province. Congressman Zaldy Co said on Facebook that several people were feared to have been buried alive. Goni is the fourth typhoon to impact the Philippines within the past month, The Guardian pointed out. It comes just a week after Typhoon Molave killed 22 people and displaced 120,000. And another storm, Atsani, is currently strengthening and has the Philippines in its path.

Typhoon Goni devastates the Philippines - Typhoon Goni (“Rolly”), the most powerful storm in the world this year, tore through the heavilypopulated centre of the Philippines over the weekend. Government reports show that at least 20 have been killed, though this number is likely to rise as communications are slowly restored between its island provinces. The storm made landfall as a super typhoon on the eastern island province of Catanduanes at 4:50 am on Sunday with sustained maximum wind speeds of 310kph (195mph) recorded in the turbulent eyewall of the storm, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. As measured by one-minute average winds, it is the strongest typhoon to make landfall ever recorded in the world. At least six people died in Catanduanes, and the island is without electricity, water or a cellular network. Provincial governor Joseph Cua told a news conference: “While there’s no more typhoon, we have no air and sea transportation.” The hashtag #NasaanAngCatanduanes or “Where is Catanduanes” has been trending on twitter to encourage recommunication with the area. An emergency telecommunications team was deployed Monday, along with initial deliveries of food packs. Cua reported that more than 13,000 homes on the island were damaged with some withstanding a five-metre storm surge. According to a “visual” assessment of the damage from ground level, the Red Cross has suggested that “80 to 90 per cent” of the easternmost town of Virac—home to 70,000 people—had been damaged by the storm. The storm weakened as it travelled west over the Bicol region—the southern part of the main island of Luzon and the most populous area of the Philippines. Bringing floodwaters, toppling trees and triggering mudslides, it barrelled through the provinces of Albay through to Batangas, just south of the capital Manila, before heading towards the South China Sea. The storm displaced 382,381 people and left 53,863 homes without electricity, according to government figures. The municipalities of Camarines Sur and Cavite were declared in a state of calamity following the storm. As of yesterday, 165 cities in Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas are still experiencing power outages.

Super Typhoon "Goni" leaves 20 dead in Philippines, country's strongest storm on record -- Super Typhoon "Goni" (locally named Rolly) has left at least 20 fatalities and about 230 million dollars (11 billion pesos) worth of damage in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported Thursday, November 5, 2020. Up to 1.2 million people or 300 000 families have been affected in Regions II, III, and V; CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon), MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan), and NCR. It made landfall over Bato, Catanduanes, and Tiwi, Albay, on October 31, with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h (140 mph) and gusts to 280 km/h (174 mph), making it the world's most powerful storm of the year and the country's strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record. Following its first landfall over Catanduanes, Goni brought severe flooding to wide swaths of the Bicol region, as well as lahar flow from the nearby Mayon volcano. Goni cut a path of destruction as it smashed infrastructure, toppled trees, and caused mudslides. At least 20 fatalities were reported, mostly from Bicol, while three others remain missing. At least 165 people sustained injuries in the storm's onslaught. In Camarines Sur, widespread power outages occurred as strong winds lashed the region. Flash floods overwhelmed local villages, while roads were blocked by debris from lahar flow from Mayon volcano.Hundreds of houses were submerged, with the famous tourist destination Cagsawa Ruins heavily inundated and engulfed with mud. Significant damage was reported to Naga Airport and Legazpi Airport, along with the loss of contact with Virac Airport. "We have experienced terrible wind speeds, lashing rains, and devastating flooding," said Oxfam Philippines’ Country Director Lot Felizco. "Goni knocked out mobile phone service, power lines, uprooted trees, and caused damage to critical infrastructure, including hospitals and markets. Homes made of light materials, particularly those near Mayon Volcano, were engulfed in floodwater and volcanic mudflows."   A total of 44 700 ha (110 000 acres) of agricultural land was ravaged by the typhoon. Overall, the NDRRMC reported that the damage to agriculture and infrastructure has climbed to more than 230 million dollars or 11 billion pesos.  44 033 houses were damaged, with 14 064 classified as totally destroyed and 29 969 as partially affected in CAR, MIMAROPA, and Bicol.  Up to 1 197 888 people or 312 583 families were affected, with 171 531 people or 44 524 families being accommodated in evacuation centers.

 Death toll rises to 87 after earthquake in Aegean Sea - The death toll has risen to 87 after a 6.9-magnitude earthquake near the Greek island of Samos in the Aegean Sea hit both the city of Izmir in western Turkey and Samos in Greece on Friday. There were 85 deaths and nearly 1,000 wounded in Turkey, while two people lost their lives and about 20 were injured in Greece after the earthquake also caused a small-scale tsunami near Izmir. This loss of life was preventable and the result of a social crime. While the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) claims the quake’s magnitude was 6.6, the United States Geological Survey measured it as 7.0. At least 17 buildings completely collapsed in Izmir, a city of 4.3 million people, and search and rescue work is continuing. Many buildings and roads were damaged in Samos, which is 16 kilometres from the centre of the earthquake. A large part of the island’s Virgin Mary church collapsed. Aftershocks approaching 5 in magnitude continue across the region. Izmir residents therefore could not enter their homes and spent the night in tents set up in the streets and parks. Moreover, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has only aggravated the plight facing thousands of people in Izmir. Izmir Governor Yavuz Selim Köşger announced on October 25 that the number of cases in the city had doubled in the previous 10 days, killing 15 in just two days. The Turkish Medical Association stated that widespread coronavirus testing should be urgently planned and performed in the affected area. Turkish and Greek officials, who have pursued a dangerous military confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean over oil and gas resources, threatening to spark a regional war, made hypocritical statements of “solidarity” after the earthquake. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after the earthquake and wrote on Twitter: “Whatever our differences, these are times when our people need to stand together.” Erdoğan responded, saying: “Turkey, too, is always ready to help Greece heal its wounds.”

World’s Largest Iceberg Could Collide With Island Home to Penguins and Seals --The world's largest iceberg could collide with South Georgia Island in Antarctica, posing a major risk to thewildlife that call it home.The iceberg, dubbed A68a, broke off from Antarctica's Larsen C ice shelf in 2017. After three years at sea, it is now approaching South Georgia Island, where it could run aground. This would block seals and penguins from foraging in open water, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) ecologist Professor Geraint Tarling explained in apress release."When you're talking about penguins and seals during the period that's really crucial to them – during pup- and chick-rearing – the actual distance they have to travel to find food (fish and krill) really matters," Tarling said. "If they have to do a big detour, it means they're not going to get back to their young in time to prevent them starving to death in the interim." The iceberg is now approximately 311 miles away from the island and roughly the same size, The Guardian reported. It is currently headed directly toward the island, according to the BAS.This is a common route for icebergs that break off from Antarctica to take, BBC News explained. Currents carry the icebergs north, where they catch on the continental shelf surrounding the island. Because A68a only extends around 656 feet below the waterline, it could advance quite far before getting stuck. If that happens, Tarling told the BAS the iceberg could be stuck for up to 10 years, increasing its impact on wildlife. The last time an iceberg ran aground off South Georgia, in 2004, large numbers of dead seal pups and penguin chicks were found on local beaches, BBC News reported.

Plastic Watch: Plastic Pushers Seek to Use Trade Negotiations to Rescind Plastic Bans - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - I’m going to write about a pernicious campaign by U.S.-based plastic pushers to use the free trade mantra to dump more plastic in Africa (as well as the UK). Readers with long memories will no doubt recall the infamous Larry Summers World Bank memo on pollution and developing countries. More recently, many of these countries are slowly waking to the environmental costs of plastic  First by following China’s lead in not accepting plastic waste imports, and then by implementing their own single-use plastic bans, these countries have wakened to the dangers of excess plastic.Now,as the plastic pushers see it, we can’t have that, can we? As DeSmog UK tells the story in Campaigners Tell Kenyan Government ‘Don’t Backslide on Plastics’ in US Trade Deal:Campaigners are calling on the Kenyan government to protect the country from an influx of plastic pollution as a consequence of a new free trade agreement with the US.An online petition, organised by Greenpeace, calls on officials to reject terms in any new agreement that would make it easier for the US to export its plastic to Kenya. The “Do Not Backslide on Plastics” campaign already has over 21,000 signatures.It was launched after revelations by Greenpeace’s investigative journalism unit Unearthed that showed the American Chemistry Council (ACC) lobby group was pushing the US Trade Representative to include terms that would contradict Kenya’s recent efforts to curb its plastic consumption.In public letters to the US Trade Representative and US International Trade Commission, the Council writes: “Kenya could serve in the future as a hub for supplying US-made chemicals and plastics to other markets in Africa through this trade agreement.”The ACC is backed by fossil fuel companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total and BP and major agri-chemical companies including Bayer, BASF, FMC and Corteva.The collapse of world oil prices means that fossil fuel companies are desperate to maintain and expand plastic production as a means to use up fossil fuels. After incurring the global warming cost of producing the stuff, the plastic waste mist go somewhere. The EU’s waste management policy means that these companies are finding it more difficult to expand plastic production or disposal into Europe: since single-use plastic bans coupled with the EU’s circular economy policy, means fewer EU outlets for plastic. As Desmogblog has documented, this has led to increased dumping of plastic waste in Africa (see Oil Industry’s Shift to Plastics in Question as Report Warns $400 Billion in Stranded Assets Possible), not to mention eventually finding their way to oceans, where testifying anecdotally, they befoul the diving in some of the most remote places on the planet (see Plastics in Oceans Will Triple By 2040, Absent Immediate Drastic Action).

US and UK citizens are world’s biggest sources of plastic waste – study - The US and UK produce more plastic waste per person than any other major countries, according to new research. The analysis also shows the US produces the most plastic waste in total and that its citizens may rank as high as third in the world in contributing to plastic pollution in the oceans. Previous work had suggested Asian countries dominated marine plastic pollution and placed the US in 20th place, but this did not account for US waste exports or illegal dumping within the country. Data from 2016, the latest available, show that more than half of the plastic collected for recycling in the US was shipped abroad, mostly to countries already struggling to manage plastic waste effectively. The researchers said years of exporting had masked the US’s enormous contribution to plastic pollution. “The US is 4% of the world’s population, yet its produces 17% of its plastic waste,” said Nick Mallos at the Ocean Conservancy and one of the study authors. The size of the US contribution is likely to be the results of high income and consumption levels. “I assume we’re just the best consumers,”. “A country’s contribution to plastic pollution does not stop at its border,” said Winnie Lau at the Pew Trusts, who was not involved in the analysis. “The export of plastic waste from the US, for example, can contribute substantially to the global ocean plastic problem, and this important research puts a number on just how much pollution that is.” She said this kind of analysis helped countries to take full responsibility for their plastic waste. Plastic waste has polluted the whole planet, from the deepest oceans to Arctic snow and Alpine soils, and is known to harm wildlife. Concern is also growing about the quantity of microplastics people consume with food and water, and by breathing them in. A study led by Lau in September found that even if all currently feasible measures were used to cut plastic pollution it would fall by only 40%, putting 700m tonnes into the environment by 2040.   The researchers found the US produced the most plastic waste by World Bank reckoning, at 34m tonnes in 2016, but the total increased to 42m tonnes when the additional data was considered. India and China were second and third, but their large populations meant their figures for per capita plastic waste was less than 20% of that of US consumers. Among the 20 nations with the highest total plastic waste production, the UK was second to the US per capita, followed by South Korea and Germany.

 U.S. Leads the World in Plastic Pollution, New Study Finds - The U.S. is the No. 1 generator of plastic pollution in the world and as high as the No. 3 generator of oceanplastic waste.That's the finding of a new study published in Science Advances last Friday that sought to paint a more accurate picture of the U.S. contribution to the plastic crisis. While previous studies had suggested that Asian countries were responsible for the bulk of ocean plastics, the new study upends this assumption by taking into account the plastic that the U.S. ships abroad."For years, so much of the plastic we have put into the blue bin has been exported for recycling to countries that struggle to manage their own waste, let alone the vast amounts delivered from the United States," lead author and Sea Education Association professor of oceanography Dr. Kara Lavender Law said in a press release emailed to EcoWatch. "And when you consider how much of our plastic waste isn't actually recyclablebecause it is low-value, contaminated or difficult to process, it's not surprising that a lot of it ends up polluting the environment."  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, (EPA) reports that 75.4 percent of plastic waste is landfilled, 15.3 percent is incinerated and 9.3 percent is recycled, which suggests that all U.S. plastic is accounted for. But this does not take into account illegal littering or what happens once plastic is collected for recycling, the study authors pointed out. The new analysis concluded that the U.S. generated around 42 million metric tons of plastic in 2016. Of the U.S. plastic collected for recycling, more than half of it was shipped abroad, and 88 percent of that was to countries that struggle to adequately recycle. Further, 15 to 25 percent of it was contaminated or poor quality plastic that would be extremely difficult to recycle anyway. These figures mean that the U.S. is polluting coasts in foreign countries with as much as one million tons of plastic.  Further, the paper estimated that between 0.98 and 1.26 million metric tons of plastic were either littered or illegally dumped within the U.S. In total, the authors estimated that the U.S. added as many as 2.25 million metric tons of plastic to the environment in 2016 and up to 1.5 million metric tons of plastic to coastal ecosystems. Using the upper estimates for plastic waste, this would put the U.S. at No. 3 in terms of overall contribution to marine plastic pollution.   The study was based on 2016 plastic waste data from both the World Bank and additional U.S. data and was collected and analyzed by the Sea Education Association, DSM Environmental Services, the University of Georgia and the Ocean Conservancy.

 As of Now, the U.S. Is Officially Out of the Paris Climate Agreement - The New York Times - President Trump’s withdrawal formally came into force the day after Election Day in the United States. Here’s what it means. As of Wednesday, under United Nations rules, the United States is officially out of the global climate accord. Here’s a look at how it happened, what it means and what might happen next. You could be forgiven for thinking the United States quit the global climate change agreement a long time ago. Ever since 2017, when President Trump announced his intention to abandon the pact, he’s spoken about withdrawal as if it was a done deal. In fact, however, pulling out of the Paris Agreement has been a lengthy process. On Nov. 4, 2019, the earliest possible day under United Nations rules that a country could begin the final withdrawal process, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo filed paperwork to do so. It automatically finalized a year later. So, as of Wednesday morning, the United States is officially no longer a part of the group of nations pledging to address climate change. President Trump has called the Paris Agreement “job-killing” and said it would “punish the American people while enriching foreign polluters.” Technically, though, the Paris Agreement doesn’t require the United States to do anything. In fact, it’s not even a treaty. It’s a nonbinding agreement among nations of all levels of wealth and responsibility for causing climate change to reduce domestic emissions. ImagePresident Trump has said the Paris Agreement would “punish the American people while enriching foreign polluters.” President Trump has said the Paris Agreement would “punish the American people while enriching foreign polluters.” Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times The accord essentially ties together every nation’s voluntary emissions pledge in a single forum, with the understanding that countries will set even tougher targets over time over time. The United States under President Barack Obama promised to reduce its emissions about 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, but progress on that goal stopped under the Trump administration. There are some reporting requirements to ensure that countries are making progress, but the Trump administration flouted those and so far has suffered no consequences. Who’s still in, and what are they doing? Almost every country in the world. Of the 195 countries that signed the Paris Agreement, 189 went on to formally adopt the accord. Initially Nicaragua and Syria withheld their support from the pact but both eventually joined the agreement. As of Wednesday, in addition to the United States, the countries that originally signed but have not formally adopted the Paris Agreement are: Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, South Sudan, Turkey and Yemen. So far, no other country has followed the United States in renouncing the Paris Agreement. At one point President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil threatened to do so but he later reversed course.

Biden Reaffirms Commitment to Rejoining Paris Agreement -  On Nov. 4, the U.S. officially left the Paris climate agreement, but its departure may be short lived.Former Vice President Joe Biden, who took the lead Friday morning in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania according to The Associated Press, has reaffirmed his commitment to immediately rejoining the accord if he wins the 2020 presidential election against incumbent Donald Trump."Today, the Trump Administration officially left the Paris Climate Agreement. And in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it," Biden tweeted late Wednesday.The two candidates have taken opposite stances on how to address the climate crisis. Trump has repeatedlydenied climate science and worked to roll back climate policies put in place by the Obama administration, including standards for power plant and vehicle emissions. He has appointed former energy lobbyists to head both the Department of the Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency, and has completed or started the process of rescinding almost 100 environmental regulations, according to a New York Times tally.Biden, meanwhile, has promised to spend $2 trillion over four years to boost green jobs and infrastructure and achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035 and net-zero emissions country-wide by 2050. While his plan is less ambitious and comprehensive than the Green New Deal, it has received qualified praise from progressive climate activists who worked with his campaign on a Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force and helped improve the plan's ambitions.Some of those same activists saw Biden's recommitment to the Paris agreement as a positive sign for his future administration's climate action. "Pretty cool that @JoeBiden's most confident statement yet about being the next President of the United States is about Day 1 action to address the climate crisis," Sunrise Movement co-founder and political director Evan Weber tweeted. "Biden has a climate mandate, and our movement will make sure he acts on it."

 Prospect of Republican Senate Majority Narrows Democrats’ Options on Clean Energy Policy - The votes are still being tallied to determine whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States. But despite still-undecided outcomes in states including Maine, Georgia and North Carolina as of Wednesday morning, it appears increasingly likely that Republicans will retain a majority in the U.S. Senate.   If Republicans do keep control of the upper chamber of Congress, the options for Democrats to push through their wide-ranging energy and climate change policies will narrow significantly — even if Biden wins the election.   Biden’s $2 trillion climate plan, which includes pledges to create a national clean energy standard and target a net-zero carbon power sector by 2035 — a highly ambitious target that many utilities and energy experts say would be exceedingly difficult to achieve — could be expected to face severe opposition from Senate Republicans. More wide-ranging proposals from Democrats in the House of Representatives would appear to be even further out of reach.  A President Biden could use his executive authority to rescind Trump administration actions to weaken regulations on polluting industries, reduce efficiency standards for automobiles and appliances, open federal lands to oil and gas extraction, and rejoin the Paris Agreement on global climate change. But other key steps in his plan, particularly those involving federal funding, will require cooperation from Congress.

Renewable Energy Shares Fall With U.S. Green Ambitions in Limbo – Bloomberg - Wall Street’s confidence that the U.S. election would spark a clean-energy revolution dimmed after Republicans appeared set to retain control of the Senate, casting doubts over whether Joe Biden could pursue his climate agenda even if he wins the White House. As a picture slowly emerged Wednesday of Democrats positioned to potentially take the White House but not Congress, renewables stocks including JinkoSolar Holding Co. and First Solar Inc. slumped. Oil and gas companies rallied, led by Concho Resources Inc. and ConocoPhillips. Biden, who led President Donald Trump in electoral votes Wednesday afternoon, has proposed sweeping plans to move away from fossil fuels, promote electric vehicles and eliminate greenhouse gases from the electricity grid by 2035. But with Republicans poised to hold onto their slim majority in the Senate, those ambitions may run aground amid gridlock. “There was some anticipation of a Democratic sweep and the possibility of major climate reform,” Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said in an interview. But without allies in the Senate “he’ll have to rely on executive action, tinkering around the edges, rather than anything game-changing or transformative.”“Perhaps the biggest conclusion to be drawn at this stage is that there is only a small likelihood that existing oil & gas tax incentives will be removed in the U.S. -- even if Biden emerges as the winner,” Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy, said in a note to clients. Still, Biden would be able to ban new fracking on federal lands via an executive order, which would hit producers in New Mexico and elsewhere.

Early spurt of energy actions possible if White House flips — In a scenario where Democratic contender Joe Biden takes the White House after the final counts are tallied, energy lawyers Nov. 5 depicted a flurry of activity possible in his first 100 days in office with consequences for energy-sector interests. The early steps could include a pause on pending regulations, rejoining the Paris Climate Accord, and new executive orders on environmental justice, clean energy, the social cost of carbon, and use of cost-benefit analysis by regulators, said Cliff Rothenstein, K&L Gates adviser, during a webinar the practice held. With the potential for split government, lobbyists and advisers on the call identified clean energy technology as an area ripe for bipartisan legislative action, although limits on carbon emissions were still seen as a possible dividing line. According to Rothenstein, a freeze early on in a new administration on the issuance of new regulations would give the policy team time to review what is in progress. A recent White House directive that agencies align their National Environmental Policy Act procedures with a new rule would likely be paused, he said. A slew of Trump regulatory executive orders also could be reversed, on the other hand, like the one requiring two rules to be nixed for each rule promulgated, he said. He also expected a burst of activity on enforcement, for instance at the Environmental Protection Agency. "Under a Biden administration, you're probably going to very aggressively start a robust enforcement initiative," potentially with information orders under the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, or Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, he said. He also expected a litigation reset. Where the Trump administration has been defending its energy and environmental deregulatory actions in court, Rothenstein suggested the Biden team would decide whether to ask the court to remand those rules back to the agency. Some rules in question include the Clean Power Plan rewrite, fuel economy standards, methane regulation for the oil and gas sector, and the NEPA rule with implications for infrastructure permitting, he said. Longer term, a host of other climate-related rules rolled back by the Trump administration affecting the energy sector could be revisited, he said. Others, such as the Waters of the US rule or the Clean Water Act Section 401 Certification rule could also be reviewed for possible changes.

Neil Chatterjee replaced as FERC chairman after promoting carbon pricing - The Trump administration has removed Republican Neil Chatterjee as chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, replacing him with fellow GOP commissioner James Danly. Chatterjee will stay on as a commissioner through the end of his term in June 2021.  The move comes weeks after Chatterjee issued a statement encouraging power grid operators to incorporate state carbon pricing policies into their markets. Chatterjee, previously an energy adviser for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has become aproponent of addressing climate change. Chatterjee, in an interview with the Washington Examiner, said that "perhaps" the Trump administration was retaliating against him for his recent actions. President Trump is a skeptic of climate change and has looked to FERC to help implement a pro-fossil fuel agenda. "I have obviously been out there promoting a conservative market-based approach to carbon mitigation and sending signals the commission is open to considering a carbon price, and perhaps that led to this," Chatterjee said. "Quite frankly, if in fact this was retribution for my independence, I am quite proud of that." At the beginning of his tenure, Chatterjee, a Kentuckian close to the state's coal industry, was sympathetic to Trump's pro-fossil fuel agenda. He opposed a contentious proposalpushed by Trump's former Energy Secretary Rick Perry to subsidize struggling coal and nuclear plants but only after prodding by fellow Republicans who said the move would have upended competitive power markets.But more recently, Chatterjee has taken actions to support clean energy and address climate change.   In September, the commission, with the support of Chatterjee and Democratic Commissioner Richard Glick, approved an order allowing distributed energy resources, such as rooftop solar, to participate in wholesale electricity markets and be compensated for it. More recently, Chatterjee, with the support of Glick, took action on carbon pricing. Danly, a commissioner since March more recently appointed by Trump, dissented on both of those actions.

Cleanest air on record: Pandemic accelerates long-term move toward cleaner air in N.C. - “Back in the ‘80s or the ‘90s, once summer hit your mountains would disappear,” recalled Jim Renfro, longtime air quality specialist for the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, during an interview earlier this year. “You’re outside in the valley looking up, and you couldn’t see the mountains through the haze.” In one of the true environmental success stories of the past century, the situation has improved dramatically since then — and as 2020 fades into 2021, it’s expected to keep getting better. “Without a doubt we are seeing the lowest ambient air pollution levels that have been recorded since the inception of our program,” said N.C. Division of Air Quality Director Mike Abraczinskas. “That’s wonderful news, testament to all of our good work, advancements in technology, regulatory and non-regulatory measures. North Carolinians are definitely breathing the cleanest air that they have anytime during their lifetimes.” That’s not the only impact COVID-19 has had on the world of air quality, but unlike most impacts related to the virus, these have been overwhelmingly positive. Data from the early days of the pandemic — March and April — show reductions of about 30 to 50 percent in vehicle miles driven as compared to 2019 figures. For the six-month period ending Sept. 30, traffic counts at the DAQ’s roadside site in the Research Triangle Park, one of the busiest stretches of road in North Carolina, were down an average of 26.8 percent compared to the same period in 2019, Abraczinskas said. It appears that this drastic reduction in time on the road is leading to a noticeable improvement in air quality. Preliminary data show a decrease in mean levels of toxic nitrogen oxides in urban areas across the state. Compared to the average of 2018 and 2019 figures, 2020 data through Sept. 30 show a 23.1 percent reduction in Charlotte, a 38.5 percent reduction in Winston-Salem and a 40 percent reduction in Raleigh. Similarly, there have been considerably fewer ozone warnings this year than in 2019, when the DAQ was “very nervous” about how close it got to violating EPA standards in the Charlotte area, Abraczinskas said.

CMP hydropower project wins key permit, likely to start construction soon - A controversial $1 billion hydropower project won its fourth key permit Wednesday from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the project’s sponsor said. Avangrid, the parent company of Central Maine Power, said the approval clears the way for construction on its proposed New England Clean Energy Connect project to start in the coming weeks. The company already has announced more than $300 million worth of contracts to build the project, Avangrid President Robert Kump said. He said the company hopes to fill many of the 1,600 positions for the project through job fairs to be held across Maine this fall. The project is being built along a 145-mile corridor that would take hydropower from the Canadian border through western Maine to the regional power grid. The Maine Public Utilities Commission, the Land Use Planning Commission and the Maine Department of Environmental Protection granted permits earlier for the corridor. It still needs a presidential permit to cross the Canadian border and potentially local permits. The company has said it expects to start construction by the end of the year.

TVA work at Boone Dam continues, including underwater inspection of turbines  The Tennessee Valley Authority conducted a “baseline assessment” recently of the water at Boone Dam to see what, if anything, had accumulated during the years-long drawdown as repair work continues. “This particular inspection was investigating trash and silt which may have accumulated on a movable screen protecting the entrance of a conduit which channels water to the power generating turbines,” said Chris Saucier, project technical director. Workers used a remotely operated vehicle to conduct the research. As water passes by the turbines at high speed, trash and debris can cause significant damage to those turbines, Saucier said. “By collecting trash prior to entering these conduits, TVA protects its assets from potentially expensive damage and also prevents the trash from being passed downstream,” Saucier said. These types of inspections are done routinely at all TVA dams as a regularly-scheduled maintenance activity. Saucier said the protective screens mitigate the amount of trash or debris that gets pulled into the turbine, and TVA conducts a regular program of preventive inspections and maintenance for these screens. It’s proven to be an effective mitigation for the effects of trash and debris on the generation plant, the dam, and the waters downstream of the dam, Saucier said. In some cases, dredging may be used to remove silt which has collected near those locations where water is allowed to enter and pass through the dam, but the need for dredging is unusual. Most often, the trash collected on protective screens is primarily brush and decayed vegetation, though small amounts of refuse such as plastic containers are mixed in. “This particular inspection found nothing unusual in either the content or amount of trash accumulated on the protective screen. The inspection further indicated no unusual accumulation of silt near the dam,” Saucier said.

 Republican incumbents headed toward reelection to Public Service Commission  — Two Republican incumbents appeared well on their way to winning reelection to the Georgia Public Service Commission Tuesday night. Commissioners Lauren “Bubba” McDonald and Jason Shaw were leading Democratic challengers Daniel Blackman and Robert Bryant, respectively, late on Election Night. Each of the two Republicans had amassed nearly 55% of the statewide vote with 1,863 of Georgia’s 2,656 precincts reporting, according to unofficial results. If the numbers remain unchanged, McDonald would win another six-year term representing PSC District 4, which covers all of North Georgia and the state’s border with South Carolina down to Augusta. The former member of the General Assembly has served on the commission since 1998. Shaw, also a former state lawmaker, was appointed to the commission last year to represent PSC District 1, which covers all of South Georgia. During the campaign, the two Democrats criticized the Republican incumbents for giving Georgia Power the green light to finish the nuclear expansion at Plant Vogtle despite huge cost overruns and lengthy delays. The challengers also took the incumbents to task for lifting a moratorium on electrical service disconnections in July. The commission imposed the moratorium back in March as businesses shut down by the coronavirus pandemic began laying off employees. The incumbents defended the Plant Vogtle project as critical to maintaining nuclear power as a component of a diverse energy-generation portfolio in Georgia, particularly as Georgia Power reduces its reliance on coal. Victories by both McDonald and Shaw would leave the five-member PSC fully in Republican hands.

 Baltimore extends trash incinerator contract despite protests -  Baltimore’s spending panel approved a 10-year extension Wednesday of the city’s agreement with a private trash incinerator, over protests from residents who decried what they said was a lack of transparency in the process. The Board of Estimates signed off on the $106 million contract with Wheelabrator Technologies by a 3-2 vote after hearing testimony from those who opposed the extension. Mayor Bernard C. “Jack” Young, Acting City Solicitor Dana Moore and Acting Public Works Director Matthew Garbark voted in favor of the contract. City Council President Brandon Scott, who is also mayor-elect, and Comptroller Joan Pratt voted against it. Under the agreement, the city’s trash will continue to be burned at the south Baltimore facility known as Baltimore Refuse Energy Systems Co., or BRESCO, through 2031. The 35-year-old incinerator is Baltimore’s largest single source of air pollution. The extension requires Wheelabrator to invest nearly $40 million in emissions control upgrades. Advertisement Young called the contract “a fair balance between fiscal prudence and social responsibility.” As the outgoing mayor spoke at the end of the meeting — which was held remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic — opponents chanted, “Zero waste! Zero waste!” over him before they were muted. Critics say the incinerator, located in the Westport neighborhood, is hurting the community’s health, and the city should instead focus on a “Zero Waste Plan” that includes expanded recycling and composting.

Can gas utilities survive the energy transition? Massachusetts is going to find out. -- Massachusetts may be a climate leader in the U.S., with a goal to reduce economy-wide emissions in the state to net-zero by 2050, but it will face a major obstacle along the way: More than 1.3 million of its households make it through those cold New England winters by burning natural gas. Roughly one-third of the state’s emissions come from the fuels burned in buildings for heating, hot water, and cooking. Now the state is responding to pressure from its attorney general, Maura Healey, to take a look at what the path to net-zero in the building sector might look like, particularly for the gas companies whose entire reason for existing could be eliminated in the process. Last week, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) officially opened a new proceeding to start guiding utilities into a decarbonized future while protecting their customers. As the number of people using the gas system shrinks over time, the cost of maintaining reliable service for remaining ratepayers could balloon. “It’s a really complicated set of issues as you look at what’s going to be happening on the gas side as people peel off,” said Susan Tierney, a senior advisor and energy expert at the Analysis Group, an economic consulting firm. “There’s real trade-offs about affordability of supply, safety of service.” The Massachusetts DPU joins regulators in California and New York, and now Colorado, who have all initiated similar investigations into these trade-offs and the future of natural gas in their states. To aid in its inquiry, the DPU is requiring gas distribution companies in the state to jointly hire an independent consultant who will review two climate “roadmap” documents the state plans to release for various sectors later this year. The consultant will then analyze the feasibility of the proposed pathways in those roadmaps and offer additional ideas for how each company might comply with state law, using a uniform methodology. Ultimately the consultant must produce a single, comprehensive report of their findings for all companies. By March 2022, the companies are required to submit new proposals with “plans for helping the Commonwealth achieve its 2050 climate goals, supported by the Report,” for the DPU to review.  Tierney called this a “clever approach,” since often in utility rulemakings, each stakeholder will hire its own expert and use its own set of assumptions, leading to a data war of sorts where it’s hard to know whose numbers to go on. In this case, the DPU, utilities, ratepayers, and environmental advocates will at least have a common set of facts on which to base discussions. But it’s also possible this approach will limit which solutions make it onto the table.

Duke Energy Will Play 'Pivotal Role' in North Carolina Clean Energy Debate, CEO Says - Duke Energy’s third-quarter earnings report on Thursday revealed success in managing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on its multistate utility operations. But it also highlighted the near-term steps the utility is taking to achieve its clean energy aspirations and how its long-range decarbonization strategy will influence the pending debate over a clean energy plan for its home state of North Carolina.Duke has won recent settlements with solar groups in its core North Carolina territory on solar interconnection challenges, as well as a settlement with renewable energy groups on a new rooftop solar net metering program to be submitted to South Carolina regulators. Duke Energy’s $58 billion capital plan through 2024 is already heavily weighted toward decarbonizing its generation fleet as part of its pledge to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, CEO Lynn Good said during Thursday's earnings conference call. Duke has shifted the $2 billion it planned to invest in the canceled Atlantic Coast Pipeline project to more clean energy and grid investments to reach its goal to double its share of renewables from 8 gigawatts to 16 GW by 2025.  This will give it "a pivotal role" to play in the upcoming negotiations between North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and a state legislature that remains in Republican control after Tuesday’s election, over the future of Cooper’s 2018 executive order seeking to reduce the state’s power-sector carbon emissions by 70 percent by 2030, she said.  No matter the results of elections at the federal and state levels, “our capital plan offers meaningful solutions” toward making “significant progress on the clean energy transition” in the coming years, Good said. Those include its large-scale solar procurements in the Carolinas, and Duke Energy Florida’s $2 billion effort to build 750 megawatts of utility-scale solar and another 750 MW in a "shared solar program" that will subscribe customers in the state.

Why Consol, whose business is coal, is looking forward to higher natural gas prices - Coal producers are also hoping for natural gas prices to increase above the $3 a mark as it’s likely to increase demand from coal-burning power plants.Consol Energy Corp. CEO Jimmy Brock made this point during the Canonsburg coal producer’s third-quarter conference call with financial analysts: Prices for natural gas, coal’s nemesis in the power-producing market, have been going up steadily and look to be up for the long term. That and lower stockpiles for the coal-burning power plants that are Consol’s customers have got the company more optimistic than it has been in a while about future prospects.Gas prices are higher than they’ve been since March 2019.“The recent trend is very encouraging,” Brock said. “These higher natural gas prices have led to overall demand improvement and led to an increase in coal burning in the United States.”It’s been a challenging 2020 for Consol and other coal producers. Coal has been getting slammed in the power-generation market by competitive natural gas prices in recent years and the deep recession and the Covid-19 pandemic earlier this year led to sharp drops in demand and coal production.Things were better in the third quarter than the rough-and-tumble second quarter: Production at Consol’s Pennsylvania Mining Complex in Greene and Washington counties was 4.5 million tons, about double what it was in the second quarter. But it was still short of the 6.5 million tons of coal Consol was shipping in the third quarter in 2019. But the increased demand led to four of Consol’s five longwall machines being in operation by the end of the third quarter and expected to remain in operation throughout the fourth quarter as demand for the coal for power plants is likely to continue to rise. He said that the rising natural gas prices — which would also be welcomed by natural gas producers as well — would increase coal’s competitiveness. “We think Q4 is going to be significantly better than Q3,” Brock said.

SWEPCO to retire Pirkey Power Plant in Hallsville in 2023  - AEP Southwestern Electric Power Co. will retire the H.W. Pirkey Power Plant in Hallsville in 2023 and also cease coal operations at a plant in Pittsburg, the utility announced Thursday. The company’s compliance plans for two recently revised environmental regulations include retiring the Hallsville plant and ceasing coal operations at the Welsh Power Plant in Pittsburg in 2028, SWEPCO said in a statement. SWEPCO spokeswoman Carey Sullivan said there are 105 employees at Pirkey, which began service in 1985, and 122 at Welsh. The utility will file its compliance plans this month for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Coal Combustion Residuals rule, the statement said. The rule applies to the handling and storage of coal ash at each facility. SWEPCO owns 580 megawatts of generating capacity at Pirkey and 1,053 at Welsh. SWEPCO will discuss transition options with affected employees, which include severance, educational and retraining resources, and other potential job opportunities at SWEPCO and AEP. “In making these difficult decisions, we have worked to balance the remaining life and economic viability of each of our coal-fueled generating units with other options for delivering power, including renewable energy and natural gas, in a resource mix that benefits our customers and the environment,” Smoak said. The analysis includes what is necessary to comply with the recently revised EPA rules, each plant’s remaining operating life and potential future compliance costs, the company said. SWEPCO will continue to evaluate options for the Welsh Plant.

AEP continues move away from coal-fired power plants - American Electric Power said Thursday that it will retire one coal-fired power plant in Texas and discontinue using coal in another plant in that state as it continues it move away from coal to generate electricity.Columbus-based AEP said it will retire the 580-megawatt Pirkey Plant in Hallsville in 2023 and stop using coal at the 1,053-megawatt plant in Pittsburg in 2028.The announcement continues AEP's move away from coal as it embraces renewable energy. AEP has shut several coal-fired power plants in recent years, including plants in Ohio."As we look at the future of our power plant fleet, we’ve balanced the remaining life and economic viability of each of our coal-fueled generating units with other options for delivering power to our customers," Nick Akins, the company's president, chairman and CEO, said in a statement. "We continue to add lower cost, cleaner resources, like renewables and natural gas, as we diversify our generating fleet to benefit our customers and the environment. We have retired or sold nearly 13,500 MW of coal-fueled generation in the last decade."

 Entergy Coal-Plant Closure Plans on Hold as Wyoming Dark Money Fuels Lawsuit - In the wake of a National Public Radio report on Wyoming spending political “dark money” to derail plans to shut down two Arkansas coal-fired power plants, Entergy Arkansas says it still plans to close the plants in Newark and Redfield, but that those plans are held up by a federal court case. Emails obtained by NPR show that a group behind a lawsuit to stop the shutdowns, the Arkansas Affordable Energy Coalition, was created by a nonprofit in Wyoming dedicated to keeping the state’s coal flowing to the two plants. The largest contributor to that Wyoming group, the Energy Policy Network, is the state of Wyoming, an arrangement that ethics and transparency advocates call highly unusual. Dark money refers to political funding from largely unidentified donors, and Wyoming’s financial stake in influencing energy decisions in Arkansas was not publicly known before NPR’s expose.    The groups, in tandem with Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, challenged the shutdown plans, which Entergy announced in 2018 “after years of feuding and lawsuits,” according to NPR. Their basic argument was that coal generation is cheaper and more reliable than other fuel sources.  Entergy Arkansas Communications Manager Kacee Kirschvink took pains to distinguish between the Energy Policy Network and her company and its parent corporation, Entergy Corp. of New Orleans. But she said details that NPR reported about Entergy Arkansas were accurate. Entergy shares ownership of the Redfield and Newark plants with Arkansas Electric Cooperatives, which has a 35% share. The two Independence units, with a capacity of 1,700 megawatts, came online in 1983 and ‘84. The White Bluff plant in Redfield, with similar generation capacity, was built in 1980. Both are within 10-15 years of the projected end of their life span. Entergy agreed to shut down its coal-fired generation in a legal dispute over air pollution, and details on its settlement with the Sierra Club and other organizations can be found here. But Kirschvink said the fate of Entergy’s plan now hinges on a judge’s ruling. “The current status of the case (Case No. 4:18-cv00854) before the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Arkansas, Western Division, is that briefings are complete and the parties are waiting on U.S. District Judge Kristine G. Baker to make her decision,” Kirschvink said. Wyoming officials told NPR that the Energy Policy Network is a critical piece of the state’s efforts to keep Arkansas and other states as coal consumers as coal generation wanes nationwide.  Rutledge told NPR she had not been aware that Wyoming money was involved in backing the lawsuit.

Insurance company demanding nearly $128 million in collateral from Peabody Energy — An insurance company is demanding nearly $128 million in collateral from Peabody Energy Corp., citing the company’s “deteriorating” financial condition. In a lawsuit filed Thursday by Argonaut Insurance Co., the company says it has issued over $202 million in surety bonds to Peabody-associated entities around the globe. They are mostly reclamation-type bonds issued to ensure that mines and surrounding lands are restored after mining operations end, the suit says. Beginning in August, Argonaut demanded that it be released from the bonds, citing Peabody’s “deteriorating” financial condition, the suit says. Peabody could alternately provide sufficient collateral or an irrevocable letter of credit. Peabody has provided $75 million in collateral, but Argonaut wants nearly $128 million more, or 100% of the value of the bonds, the suit says. The lawsuit seeks a judge's order that would enforce the terms of the bonds. In a statement, Peabody said it is “seeking a mutually agreeable solution,” and promised “a comprehensive update” on collateral requests during their Nov. 9 announcement of their quarterly financial results. St. Louis-based Peabody, like other coal companies, has struggled during the coronavirus pandemic and due to decline in demand. As of June 30, Peabody had nearly $1.6 million of surety bonds, according to their financial statements. 1 comment

EPA sued over coal plant wastewater rollback - A coalition of nine environmental groups sued the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Monday over its move to weaken regulations governing wastewater from coal-fired power plants. In August, the EPA finalized a rule loosening requirements for treating discharges of toxic pollution from power plants that were set by the Obama administration. It also delayed the implementation of the requirements and exempted some plants. Groups suing the agency argued that the rule is bad for water quality. “Trump's EPA is propping up a dying industry that has put our health at risk for decades, and fueled the climate crisis, by giving them a free pass to continue to dump deadly pollution into our water. This rule puts the most vulnerable communities at further risk,” said a statement from Jennifer Peters, Clean Water Action’s water programs director. An EPA spokesperson declined to comment, saying that the agency doesn’t comment on pending litigation. The agency argued in August that its rule would actually end up reducing pollution.  "Newer, more affordable pollution control technologies and flexibility on the regulation’s phase-in will reduce pollution and save jobs at the same time," EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement at the time.The agency's pollution estimate was based on the assumption that a handful of plants would opt into a voluntary program with more stringent regulations.   The rule gives facilities until the end of 2025 to be compliant, two years longer than the 2015 rule’s deadline at the end of 2023. It also exempts facilities that are expected to shutter by 2028.

Lawsuit Filed Against Trump Administration For Relaxing Limits On Coal Plant Pollution - Environmental groups have filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over its rule that weakens Obama-era requirements to reduce pollution from wastewater of coal-fired power plants. The waste from burning coal contains heavy metals that can contaminate surrounding waterways and pose a threat to public health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency relaxed requirements of a 2015 rule issued by the Obama administration in August that could have implications for two Wisconsin coal plants. The changes give utilities more time to reduce pollution and allow them to use cheaper pollution control technologies. The lawsuit, filed by a coalition of environmental groups including the Sierra Club and Natural Resources Defense Council, comes just a day before the presidential election. Thom Cmar, an Earthjustice attorney representing those groups, said the challenge would've been filed regardless of politics. "Power plants should be required to meet the same standards that every other industry is required to meet and use the technologies that are available and affordable to clean up their toxic discharges rather than putting them into our waterways," said Cmar. President Donald Trump has tried to assist the ailing coal industry during his first term by reversing Obama-era policies and appointing former coal industry lobbyist Andrew Wheeler as head of the EPA. His Democratic opponent Joe Biden pledges to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 if elected. The EPA's changes would affect 75 out of 914 plants nationwide — down from 108 in 2015. The change is due in part to plants that have shut down operations as coal has become uneconomical. The revised rule would not require plants to invest in state-of-the-art wastewater treatment technology if they retire coal-fired units by 2028, said Scott Blankman, director for energy and air programs at Clean Wisconsin.

Filed: Challenge to Trump administration rule allowing more toxic wastewater from coal plants | Southern Environmental Law Center - Representing groups from communities near and downstream of coal plants in the Carolinas, the Southern Environmental Law Center today challenged the Trump administration’s rewrite of a rule—known as the Effluent Limitation Guidelines, or ELG, Rule for power plants—that allows coal plants to dump more toxic pollution into rivers and lakes. “This illegal rollback of clean water protections by the Trump administration allows dirty coal-burning plants to dump more toxic substances into our rivers, lakes, and drinking water reservoirs and exposes our communities to more cancer-causing pollution,” said Senior Attorney Frank Holleman. “The technology to prevent and treat toxic water pollution from these plants is widely available. Instead of protecting people, this administration made it easier for the most polluting and worst run coal-fired plants to dump poisons into the waterways our communities depend upon.” At least 30 percent of all toxic water pollution from all industries in America comes from coal-fired plants, according to EPA. In the Southeast, the percentage is likely even higher because of the prevalence of polluting coal-fired power plants. By rewriting this rule at industry’s request, EPA allows polluters to dump more arsenic, mercury, and selenium into our lakes and rivers—even though available technologies to control this pollution are working at coal-fired plants across the South and the nation.  At Belews Creek and other plants in North Carolina, Duke Energy already installed the technology needed to limit toxic wastewater pollution to the levels required by a 2015 EPA rule. But the administration’s rewrite now lets them pollute more instead of polluting less. EPA’s rollback also fails to take action against bromide pollution from power plants. Communities in North Carolina, including those downstream of Duke Energy’s Belews Creek facility, experienced spikes of cancer-causing byproducts in their treated drinking water because of bromide pollution from upstream coal-fired power plants.

Coal ash cleanup continues at Belews Creek  — Duke Energy spokesperson Bill Norton says the company is “well on our way” to permanently closing the coal ash basin at Belews Creek Power Station. “We’ll be disposing of the material in a state-of-the-art lined landfill on plant property. In August, the state environmental regulator approved our closure plan, and that same month we completed safely removing the bulk water from the basin (known as the ‘decanting’ stage),” Norton said. No more coal ash has been added to the basin in May 2018. The majority of it is now recycled – 77% so far this year – and the rest stored dry in an existing on-site landfill. “As we proceed, basin closure requires highly specialized firms with deep experience in ash excavation, landfill construction and other large-scale utility work, which is why we’re going through a detailed process to evaluate the best contractors now, with selection expected by year-end,” Norton added. “Also by the end of the year, we plan to submit our construction permit for the on-site landfill – we’ve been working on its design this summer and will soon begin removing trees within our property where the landfill will be located. It will take about a year to build, so pending regulatory approval, the first ash could be excavated in 2022.” In the meantime, the plant is already implementing the pilot phase of a groundwater remediation system. A water line to serve these wells is being installed now, running along Middleton Loop Road and Pine Hall Road. “For everyone’s safety, we encourage plant neighbors to lower speeds around this construction activity, which should be complete by the end of the year,” he added.

Burgum appoints successor for House seat, but attorney general says governor lacks authority - Gov. Doug Burgum has appointed a successor to a Bismarck-area legislative seat won by a deceased Republican nominee, taking party leaders by surprise and sidestepping an attorney general opinion. Burgum on Wednesday morning appointed Wade Boeshans, of Washburn, who leads a coal mining company. The appointment came just hours after unofficial results in Tuesday's general election became complete. David Andahl, 55, of Baldwin, died Oct. 5 from COVID-19. His death was so close to Election Day with early voting already underway that the ballots could not be changed. The governor's office issued a statement Wednesday that said "Unique circumstances require gubernatorial appointment to fill seat." But hours later, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem released a statement, calling Burgum's news release "inaccurate and untimely." Andahl and Dave Nehring, of Bismarck, teamed up to win District 8 Republicans' endorsements and voters' nominations for the House seats, defeating longtime Rep. Jeff Delzer, R-Underwood, in the June primary. Delzer is chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, and had tangled with Burgum over budget issues.

 ELECTION 2020: Don Blankenship eats into vote tally in swing states -- Wednesday, November 4, 2020 -- As election officials in Michigan count ballots in a state that could be decided by a razor-thin margin, a former coal baron convicted in a fatal mine explosion is accumulating a tiny, if not insignificant chunk of votes in the presidential race.

Exelon May Split Its Utilities From Nuclear, Generation Business -Exelon Corp. confirmed Tuesday that it is exploring a plan to separate its multistate utilities businesses from its generation business, which is preparing to close two of its 21 nuclear power plants due to money-losing market conditions.  CEO Chris Crane confirmed the “review of our corporate structure,” first reported to be underway by Bloomberg last month, during the Chicago-based company’s third-quarter earnings conference call. The move comes as Exelon is struggling with profitability at several of its nuclear plants, which face falling energy prices and challenging conditions in the capacity market run by mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM. “No decision has been made, but we continue to do the work to determine the best outcome for our stakeholders, and we'll provide you an update on our progress on the next earnings call,” Crane said. “What we want to make sure is that we have two healthy companies, a utility business — if we and the board determine this is the right thing to do — two healthy businesses that can stand on their own.” Exelon has secured zero-emissions credits for financially struggling nuclear plants in New York and New Jersey, two states seeking to eliminate their carbon emissions by midcentury, and has won similar credits as part of Illinois’ 2016 Future Energy Jobs Act that supply about $235 million per year in zero-emissions credits to its Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear plants.  But Exelon has not secured subsidies for four other Illinois nuclear power plants, including the Byron and Dresden facilities. In August it announced it will close those plants in 2021 and may also seek early retirement of its Braidwood and LaSalle power plants unless it can obtain state support to bolster their economics.   Those plants and the two set to close next year provide 70 percent of Illinois’ carbon-free power. Losing them would make it harder for the state to chart a path to Governor J.B. Pritzker and state lawmakers’ goal to eliminate its electricity sector carbon emissions by 2050.   “Despite being among the most efficient, reliable units in the U.S. nuclear fleet, they face revenue shortfalls, declining energy prices, lack of capacity revenue and market rules that allow fossil plants to underbid clean energy resources in the PJM market auction,” Crane said.

FirstEnergy to spinoff West Penn Power transmission business; allows for faster rate hikes | TribLIVE.com - FirstEnergy Corp. spun off its West Penn Power Co. transmission business to a new shell company, a move the state’s top consumer advocate says will allow the Ohio-based utility a faster path to recover costs by raising rates on 720,000 West Penn customers. Keystone Appalachian Transmission Co. was formed to take certain unnamed transmission assets from two of its electric distribution companies — Greensburg-based West Penn Power and Potomac Edison, which operates in West Virginia and Maryland — and placing them into the newly formed firm, FirstEnergy officials said Monday in a call with analysts. Akron-based FirstEnergy filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for what the company said were “forward-looking formula rates” that reflect the current cost of serving customers plus the projected cost of projects in the upcoming year. The transfer is scheduled to take effect in January 2022. By FirstEnergy creating the spinoff company under the auspices of federal regulators, Tanya McCloskey, Pennsylvania’s acting consumer advocate, said the formula rate cases for recovering transmission costs “are faster rate cases than the PUC,” referring to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. The state’s consumer advocate has the right to challenge any rate cases affecting Pennsylvania consumers that Keystone Appalachian Transmission would file before the federal regulators, McCloskey said. FirstEnergy still has to file documents with the PUC to separate West Penn Power’s transmission business and the consumer advocate can review that filing, McCloskey said. The commission will “thoroughly review and carefully evaluate any filing from FirstEnergy,” said Nils Hagen-Frederiksen, a PUC spokesman.

 Ohio Nuclear-Plant Owner’s Bankruptcy Plan Upheld by Appeals Court -- A federal appeals court declined requests to revisit a bankruptcy plan covering Energy Harbor Corp., a nuclear-plant owner being investigated along with its former parent, FirstEnergy Corp., in an Ohio public-corruption probe. Monday’s decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit in Cincinnati affirmed the chapter 11 restructuring of Energy Harbor, which filed for bankruptcy in 2018 as a subsidiary of FirstEnergy and emerged in February owned by investors.

FirstEnergy's balance sheet, reputation could take hits from Larry Householder scandal - Cleveland Business Journal - FirstEnergy Corp. executives warned investors on Monday that the company's balance sheet and reputation could take big hits from fines, penalties or judgments related to its role in passing Ohio's nuclear power plant bailout law.While talking to securities analysts about the Akron utility's third-quarter earnings Monday, Jon Taylor, chief financial officer, detailed "financial considerations and tactical changes we are making to address the uncertainty created by the investigations."For one, FirstEnergy could tap into $3.5 billion in credit that has been committed through December 2022, Taylor told analysts during a conference call."These facilities are substantially undrawn with only $150 million borrowed, and we remain in compliance with all covenants," Taylor said.FirstEnergy also plans to hold its quarterly dividend at 39 cents a share, or $1.56 a share per year, for 2021 and begin making plans to reduce operating expenses and, possibly, capital expenditures."Our [capital expenditures] programs will be at the $3 billion level, and we will consider reductions if necessary," Taylor said. "So we're just slowing back on growth for the near term."The company additionally expects to "issue up to $600 million in equity annually in 2022 and 2023," interim CEO Steven Strah told analysts."I think that will provide plenty of balance sheet flexibility," Taylor said.On Monday, FirstEnergy reported it earned $454 million, or 84 cents a diluted share, on revenue of $3 billion during the quarter ended Sept. 30. That was up 16 percent from $391 million, or 72 cents a diluted share, during the same period a year ago, when it also posted revenue of $3 billion.The focus on FirstEnergy's balance sheet follows actions by credit rating agencies on Friday.Fitch Ratings downgraded the rating of FirstEnergy's debt to its BBB- classification from BBB, meaning it thinks the utility's debt is riskier following the firings of CEO Chuck Jones and two other executives on Thursday, according to an Akron Beacon Journal story.  After an internal investigation, Jones; Dennis Chack, senior vice president of product development, marketing and branding; and Michael Dowling, senior vice president of external affairs, were fired Thursday for violating the company’s policies and code of conduct.

Facing credit downgrades after firing CEO, FirstEnergy board launches further internal investigation - FirstEnergy has been dealing with an ongoing U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation since the company and certain officers received subpoenas from the SEC on Sept. 1, the company's new management team told analysts on Monday during its third quarter earnings call, and in an 8-K filed just before the meeting.   S&P downgraded FirstEnergy corporate bond rating to less than investment grade last Friday, a day after the company's board fired CEO Charles "Chuck" Jones, the company reported in investor materials posted on its website prior to the the earnings call. Fitch alsodowngraded the rating but not below investment grade. Moody'saffirmed its current rating (Baa3), but kept a negative outlook.   In a move seen as key to the company's long-term survival, FirstEnergy's Board of Directors has created an investigative committee to review — and if necessary strengthen — the company's "internal governance" policies and determine whether employees are or have been in compliance with it.   FirstEnergy's new interim management team declined to give further details on the internal governance audit or to speculate on the possible outcomes of the SEC investigation. The team also did not comment on the ongoing Justice Department racketeering probe that led to the indictment of the former speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives and four associates on racketeering charges in connection with legislation designed to bail out former FirstEnergy nuclear plants. FirstEnergy received subpoenas in that investigation as well.The effort by the company's Board to take control and stabilize the situation was apparent during the analyst conference with the active participation of Christopher Pappas, an independent member of the company's board and executive director, to whom acting CEO Steven Strah directly reports. Pappas himself will continue to report to Donald Misheff, non-executive chairman of the Board.Pappas tried to make it clear to analysts that Strah, who had been appointed president of FirstEnergy last spring, had been in line to succeed Jones before any of the federal investigations were known. Strah began his FirstEnergy career in 1984 and was named chief financial officer in 2018.In answer to an analyst's question about credit rating downgrades, Pappas said the actions of the credit agencies were "related to governance issues" and said that is why the board has created a special committee to focus on corporate standards of conduct.

PUCO auditing FirstEnergy over corporate compliance in Householder case - The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio says will audit FirstEnergy Corp's compliance with corporate separation laws and regulations relating to the $61 million Larry Householder scandal and federal bribery investigation.The commission on Wednesday says it has directed its staff to seek an independent third-party auditor to review the Akron-based utility's corporate separation during the period that led up to the passage of House Bill 6 and subsequent referendum efforts. House Bill 6 provides more than $1 billion in subsidies to two Ohio nuclear plants formerly owned by FirstEnergy. A federal investigation revealed earlier this year alleges that former Ohio House Speaker Householder and others, including a nonprofit organization, received nearly $61 million in bribes to pass and support the bill. Two of the five people charged struck plea deals with prosecutors Thursday.The PUCO said it will select an auditor by Dec. 2, with a report due April 21, 2021.The PUCO said FirstEnergy "warranted further examination of compliance with corporate separation regulations by FirstEnergy’s electric distribution utilities and its affiliates" because the utility recently filed documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission indicating it is doing an internal investigation. The PUCO said it has a separate ongoing legal proceeding regarding political and charitable spending by FirstEnergy’s Ohio electric distribution utilities. FirstEnergy's board of directors last week fired Chuck Jones as chief executive officer and two other executives, saying an internal investigation found the three men violated company policies and code of conduct.

Ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder on track to win re-election despite arrest on corruption charge - cleveland.com -Ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder was headed toward re-election, in spite of being arrested on a charge that he oversaw the largest bribery scheme in Ohio history.Householder, a Perry County Republican, had a significant lead over four write-in candidates in House District 72, which covers Perry County, Coshocton County, and parts of Licking County in East Central Ohio.In Perry County, early vote totals showed Householder with 3,929 votes, Marci McCaulay with 1,477 votes, Jay Conrad with 964 votes, Robert Leist with 127 votes, and Kaitlyn Clark with 47 votes. Other write-in votes were not expected to be available until Wednesday.Despite the apparent victory, Householder might not serve much of his third term in office. His fellow House Republicans, who are likely to maintain control of the chamber next session, have indicated that they may expel Householder should he take his seat next January. (House GOP leaders have said they haven’t expelled Householder this session because they can’t expel a member twice for the same offense, meaning if they force him out now they won’t be able to do so if he’s re-elected back into office next year). Householder has insisted he’s not guilty of a federal racketeering conspiracy charge, which claims that he and four associates accepted more than $60 million from FirstEnergy Corp. to enrich themselves and secure the passage of a $1 billion-plus ratepayer bailout of two Northern Ohio nuclear power plants. Despite the charge, Householder still has support from many of his constituents. The Perry County Republican Party endorsed him for another term even after the scandal broke.Householder’s campaign has also sent out political mailers and deployed yard signs, and a newspaper in his district printed an article touting him for re-election without any mention of his arrest.

 Protect Ohio utility customers and the consumers' counsel – Dispatch opinion - It is time for the Ohio General Assembly and Gov. Mike DeWine to take action to protect utility customers from the influence of powerful investor-owned utilities in a meaningful and permanent way.So much has been written recently about House Bill 6 and the conspiracy to defraud Ohio’s residential electric consumers. What has been missed during this discussion is the nine-year direct assault on consumer protections. The attacks on the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, Ohio’s utility watchdog, have received too little attention, including the most recent attack — the anti-consumer bill House Bill 246 from state Reps. Larry Householder and Nino Vitale. This bill is a danger to anyone in Ohio who pays a utility bill and it remains on the Ohio House docket as a direct attack on the OCC and all Ohio residential utility consumers.The Ohio Consumers’ Counsel was created in 1976 to be a state agency giving voice and legal representation for affordable utility bills and reliable service, a role distinct from that of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The OCC is the only state government agency charged with appearing before the PUCO, Ohio and federal courts, and other agencies to represent and protect Ohio’s residential consumers.HB 246 would politicize and weaken the OCC by reconstituting the membership of its governing board, resulting in the loss of OCC’s independence. The bill would limit the forums and roles for the OCC’s advocacy for millions of Ohioans. There is no budgetary concern for the Ohio legislature to resolve here; the OCC’s revenue comes from investor-owned utility assessments, not taxpayer dollars. Rather, this bill is a thinly veiled attempt by those investor-owned utilities to influence policy and minimize the effectiveness of Ohio consumer protections and its watchdog agency.

Editorial: Lame duck top priority: Repeal House Bill 6  - Columbus Dispatch -  Events of last week should make the General Assembly’s priorities clear when lawmakers return for a post-election lame duck session: Repeal House Bill 6 outright. Then, when the next session begins in January, start considering an energy policy designed to benefit Ohioans rather than deep-pocketed utility corporations. Repeal of the bill, which provided a $1.3 billion bailout to a subsidiary of Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp., should have happened months ago, after the U.S. District Attorney’s office in July revealed allegations of a massive bribery scheme behind it. Then-House Speaker Larry Householder and four associates were arrested and charged with federal counts of racketeering and bribery. But even though Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and several GOP lawmakers called for repeal and/or replacement, several bills to accomplish that are still sitting in House and Senate committees. After last week, very little doubt remains that passage of HB 6 was mired in corruption. On Thursday, two of the defendants in the case — Jefferey Longstreth, a longtime political strategist for Householder, and Juan Cespedes, a former lobbyist for FirstEnergy — entered “guilty” pleas as part of agreements to cooperate with the ongoing investigation. On the same day, FirstEnergy fired CEO Chuck Jones and two senior vice presidents, saying the three had violated the company’s policies and code of conduct. FirstEnergy, original parent to the company that now owns the two nuclear power plants set to receive the bailout, is not named in the July affidavit laying out the case. But information in the affidavit makes clear it is “Company A,” which the FBI says funneled more than $60 million into Generation Now, a dark money fund created by Longstreth and illegally controlled by Householder. Generation Now used the money to help elect House members who would support a FirstEnergy bailout bill and to fund an advertising blitz to pressure Senate members to vote for it after it passed the House. Then, when opponents launched a petition-gathering effort to overturn the bill via a ballot referendum, Generation Now paid for an unprecedented campaign of sabotage and dirty tricks that prevented the ballot effort from collecting enough signatures. U.S. Attorney Dave DeVillers has made clear that additional charges may be coming and could involve FirstEnergy. That’s the most direct reason to repeal HB 6 before ratepayers begin paying for the bailout as scheduled in January. The financial industry is concerned about FirstEnergy’s integrity; on Friday, S&P Global Ratings agency downgraded the company’s rating by two levels, to BB+, based on the firing of Jones and what FirstEnergy’s internal review found. “We view the severity of these violations at the highest level within the company as demonstrative of insufficient internal controls and cultural weakness,” the ratings company said, adding that the violations were “significantly outside” industry norms. Why should Ohio ratepayers be on the hook to bail such a company out until allegations are aired and resolved? Just as important, what HB 6 does beyond the bailout is terrible energy policy. Ohio already does foolishly little to invest in a clean-energy economy that could revitalize manufacturing and make the state a leader in fighting climate change. HB 6 essentially cancels Ohio’s few remaining clean-energy incentives, putting the state in an even weaker position. Ohio deserves better than an energy policy built on bribery and backwardness. Repeal HB 6 and start over.

 NE Ohio pipeline repair company to triple capacity with move - The Pipe Line Development Co. (PLIDCO) said it plans to move its headquarters and manufacturing facility from Westlake to Strongsville, Ohio. The pipeline repair company said it plans to move to a 248,200-square-foot facility at 11792 Alameda Dr. in Strongsville, which is much larger than its current 80,000-square-foot Westlake facility and 15 miles away. About 100 people work in the company's production facility. PLIDCO began the multi-phased move on Nov. 1, and said it may take up to a year to fully complete the relocation. Both manufacturing facilities will operate during that time, the company said. “PLIDCO has grown considerably in recent years. We’re excited to move into a significantly larger manufacturing facility with an improved layout and greater capabilities that will allow our team to continue meeting customer demand and production, while providing new operational efficiencies and increased product availability for our customers," said Ernie Lackner, director of sales and marketing at the company, in a statement. The company said the new production facility will offer a 233% increase in manufacturing and production capacity. According to PLIDCO, the Strongsville facility was formerly occupied by Sumitomo DeMag, a unit of Tokyo-based Sumitomo Heavy Industries Inc. Sumitomo DeMag had acquired the plant in its acquisition of DeMag Plastics Co. of Germany. The Strongsville operation was originally part of the Van Dorn Co. of Cleveland.

 Range Resources cut back some production in third quarter -  Range Resources Corp. this fall curtailed some of its natural gas production as it waits for higher prices the industry hopes will come with a colder winter and increased demand for the product. Range, which is based in Texas but whose regional headquarters and drilling are in southwestern Pennsylvania, said it curtailed 210 million cubic feet of natural gas per day through the last two weeks of September and most of October. Range joins other producers, including EQT Corp. and CNX Resources Corp, in curtailments that have all but returned to normal as gas prices start to climb. Range's production returned to normal Oct. 28. CEO Jeff Ventura said that while natural gas prices are showing signs of improving for 2021 and 2022, the price isn't enough to allow for any growth in production. "Range will seek to maintain production around current levels and optimize cash flow similar to our capital programs this year and use excess cash flow to reduce debt and ultimately return this free cash flow to shareholders," Ventura said during the company's third-quarter conference call. Nineteen new wells were put into service in the third quarter, and seven more are planned for the rest of the year. Gas prices have taken a hit in the quarter because storage levels remain high as well as some maintenance and delays on pipelines that would have taken natural gas produced here in the Marcellus and Utica out of the system. It expects natural gas liquids prices to increase, though. Range is also working to get the best prices for its products with its hedging policy, where it contracts natural gas at a certain price months in advance. About 75% of its production for the rest of the year is hedged and it has hedges for about 1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production in 2021. It has about 2.24 billion cubic feet per day of production.

Pennsylvania DEP official: Trusting Sunoco Pipeline ‘has come back to bite us’ again and again -- A Pennsylvania official said Friday that environmental regulators were fed up with Sunoco Pipeline LP’s “history of poor compliance” in the construction of its Mariner East project, which led to its dramatic decision last month to halt construction in Chester County where Sunoco’s work polluted a popular state park lake.“It’s at a point where we have taken the company’s word countless times over and over and over again, and it has come back to bite us on numerous occasions,” Domenic Rocco, director of regional permit coordination for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, testified Friday. Rocco’s testimony came on the fourth day of hearings before Environmental Hearing Board Judge Bernard A. Labuskes Jr., who is considering Sunoco’s emergency request to override DEP’s order last month to abandon a half-mile route along its Mariner East 2 pipeline, which would transport natural gas liquids like propane, and to take a costly detour. DEP ordered Sunoco to abandon its ongoing operation to horizontally drill the Mariner East 2 pipeline along Little Conestoga Road in Upper Uwchlan Township after about 8,000 gallons of drilling fluid leaked to the surface on Aug. 10 and polluted the lake at Marsh Creek State Park. Sunoco Pipeline, a unit of Energy Transfer LP of Texas, called the state’s order “arbitrary, capricious, and an abuse of its discretion” and asked the hearing board to overturn the decision. Sunoco said the new route would cause more environmental harm, make it abandon $17 million of work, and add up to $19 million in costs. It would also delay completion by two years. The hearing, conducted online, included a parade of expert witnesses who testified about the technical details of what went wrong with Sunoco’s project and what can be done going forward to reduce risks. DEP portrayed the continued use of the planned underground drill route near Marsh Creek as risky because of the unstable bedrock. And it said that although Sunoco knew of the risks, it did not take sufficient precautions to reduce chances that drilling fluids would leak through fractures to the surface and pollute Marsh Creek.The DEP’s Rocco also made clear that DEP had run out of patience with Sunoco and produced an elaborate spreadsheet documenting its violations — $15.9 million in fines over four years and numerous mishaps. These included 159 leaks of drilling mud during horizontal directional drilling (HDD), a process by which the company drills a cavity underground into which the pipeline is pulled, rather than burying the pipe in a trench near the surface. “It got to the point where we had to take an action,” Rocco said. “We basically said, `Enough is enough.' " Sunoco Pipeline says a state-ordered one-mile detour of its Mariner East 2 pipeline, shown in this diagram, would add two years and $12 million to $19 million in costs to the project. The new route would take the pipeline under the Pennsylvania Turnpike two times, and encroach on the properties of five homes. The spills — or “inadvertent returns” — of drilling fluid typically contain a mixture of bentonite clay and water, which is classified as an industrial waste. The Marsh Creek incident left a 15-foot wide sinkhole near the lake, and 33 acres of the lake remain closed to boating and other uses.

Energy Transfer Converting Portion of Mariner East, Expects DAPL to Continue Operating - - Energy Transfer LP (ET) is in the process of converting a portion of the Mariner East natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline to refined products to capture price blowouts between Chicago and New York markets this winter. Newly named Co-CEO Mackie McCrea told investors during the third quarter earnings call last Wednesday the repurposed portion of the eight-inch diameter Mariner 1 line is expected to be in service by the end of the year. The conversion to refined products “should provide significant upside revenue for an asset that doesn’t limit us for what we can do with the remaining portions of the Mariner system.”Mariner East consists of three pipelines that move NGLs from processing facilities in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to the Marcus Hook Industrial Complex near Philadelphia.ET expects to continue transporting all the liquefied petroleum gas and ethylene that is contracted on Mariner East. It’s also in the process of contracting additional volumes, McCrea said. The partnership experienced the highest average quarterly volumes through the pipeline system, with year-to-date NGL volumes up 40% over a year-to-date 2019. NGLs, particularly in West Texas and, “to a certain degree,” the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, are core areas for ET’s midstream assets. Management is “somewhat optimistic” that West Texas Intermediate oil prices remained near the $40/bbl mark since May, according to McCrea. In talking to producer customers, and taking into account the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in West Texas, management thinks producer customers may be “drilling around a lot of these areas.”ET expects to see 15-20% volumes growth “by the end of next year,” McCrea said. “I wouldn’t say we’re overly bullish, but we’re certainly optimistic that we’ll see volumes grow on our systems.” The midstreamer also remains confident that Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) should continue operating despite various appeals. An appeals process with respect to Lake Oahe litigation is ongoing; oral arguments took place last Wednesday.“We continue to believe that our legal positions in the case are strong, and we are confident that our pipeline will continue to operate as normal,” said CFO Tom Long. “The pipeline remains in service today and like all of our assets, we will continue to operate it safely and efficiently.” ET also is moving forward with the Bakken Shale pipeline’s capacity optimization. Last month, it received regulatory approval from the Illinois Commerce Commission, the last remaining state regulatory approval required to proceed. The initial phase of the optimization would accommodate the volume commitments made by shippers in open seasons.

Energy Transfer to finish Pa. Mariner East 2X NGL pipe by year end (Reuters) - U.S. energy company Energy Transfer LP said it plans to finish work on its Mariner East 2X natural gas liquids pipeline in Pennsylvania by the end of the year and the final phase of the Mariner East projects in the second quarter of 2021. Mariner East transports liquids from the Marcellus/Utica shale in western Pennsylvania to customers in the state and elsewhere, including international exports from Energy Transfer's Marcus Hook complex near Philadelphia. Sunoco started work on the $2.5 billion Mariner East expansion in February 2017 and planned to finish the 350-mile (563-km) pipeline in the third quarter of 2017. Mariner East 2 did not enter service until December 2018 due primarily to several work stoppages by state agencies. Since May 2017, Pennsylvania has issued 118 notices of violation to Mariner East, mostly for drilling fluid spills, including one in October. Energy Transfer also said on its earnings call on Wednesday that it will use part of the eight-inch (20.3-centimeter) Mariner East 1 pipe for its new Pennsylvania Access project to bring refined products from the Midwest into Pennsylvania. "This project will require minimal capital ... and will add significant revenue," Energy Transfer CFO Thomas Long said, noting early volumes will likely flow in the fourth quarter. Mariner East 1 started service in the 1930s transporting refined products from the Philadelphia area to western Pennsylvania. It was repurposed and expanded to transport propane in 2014 and ethane in 2016. Mariner East 2, which uses mostly 20-inch pipe, boosted total capacity of the system from 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 345,000 bpd. Energy Transfer temporarily used sections of 16-inch and 12-inch pipe in Chester and Delaware counties to put Mariner East 2 into service where the 20-inch pipe was still under construction. The 16-inch Mariner East 2X will add another 250,000 bpd to the system.

Energy Transfer’s Claims Against Protesters Partially Dismissed - Energy Transfer Partners LP, Sunoco Pipeline LP, and Sunoco Logistics LP lost their attempt to pursue nuisance and interference counterclaims against a protester who was arrested at their Mariner East 2 Pipeline project in Pennsylvania, after a ruling by a federal court in the state.  The U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania’s ruling came as a win for Ellen Gerhart, who was sentenced to a $2,000 fine and two to six months’ imprisonment for indirect criminal contempt by a state court. Gerhart allegedly baited bears to the site, set fires, and obstructed workers to stop pipeline construction,...

 Banning Fracking Isn't Bad Politics, It's Good Science - In this year’s vice presidential debate, Senator Kamala Harris reiterated Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s rejection of a fracking ban, despite her earlier call for one when she was a presidential candidate. “I will repeat, and the American people know, that Joe Biden will not ban fracking. That is a fact,” Harris said. Whenever there are discussions about banning fracking, media coverage seems to prioritize potential “risks” to Democrats’ electoral prospects, or potential economic downturns. Unfortunately, a lot of this coverage is quite sloppy. For instance, the New York Times quoted absurd claims that a fracking ban would mean “hundreds of thousands” of Pennsylvanians would be “unemployed overnight.” In reality, about 26,000 people work in all of Pennsylvania’s oil and gas sector. Still, the Times suggested that any presidential candidate who supports a national fracking ban would risk losing Pennsylvania, calling the issue “a political bet.” A fracking ban “could jeopardize any presidential candidate’s chances of winning this most critical of battleground states — and thus the presidency itself,” the paper wrote. NPR likewise made dubious pronouncements on the opinions of swing-state voters the focal point of the story, reporting that “aggressive” climate action “could push moderate voters in key swing states to reelect President Trump,” and even cited — without rebuttal — a claim from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that a fracking ban would eliminate 17 percent of all U.S. jobs.  Soon after the debate, Quartz explained that Biden and Harris don’t support a fracking ban because it “tempts political suicide in swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio where fossil fuels still rule.” And the Los Angeles Timesdescribed Biden’s opposition to a fracking ban as a “nuanced position.” There are two big problems with these arguments. First, journalist David Sirota pointed out, “the idea that a fracking ban is political poison in Pennsylvania” simply “isn’t substantiated by empirical data.”  Second, there’s simple climate science.  In 2018, the UN announced that carbon pollution needs to be cut by 45 percentby 2030 to prevent irreversible planetary devastation. Unfortunately, fracking releases large amounts of methane into the atmosphere, which can warm the planet 80 times more than the same amount of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. And recent reporting has suggestedthat fracking is an even bigger contributor to global warming than previously believed.

Oil and natural gas are our best bet for continued economic recovery – by Dan Brouillette US Secretary of Energy - No matter where you stand, the truth is that arbitrarily halting oil and natural gas development would do serious harm to our economy, jeopardize America’s post-pandemic recovery, and deny ourselves of a critical innovation engine for cleaner technologies.Businesses need reliable, low-cost energy to reopen and return to normal operations. With fossil fuels currently accounting for 80 percent of overall American energy production, including the vast majority of power supplied in the industrial and commercial sectors, removing those sources of power as an option would add uncertainty and higher costs to an already difficult business environment.At the start of this year, the oil and gas industry was responsible for 12.3 million American jobs. Some of those workers were laid off during the early days of the pandemic, but as demand returns, so, too, will job opportunities.However, crushing the industry with more regulations or cutting production, a clear goal of some policymakers, would cost even more oil and gas workers their jobs and destroy communities in energy producing states across our nation, like Alaska, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Texas. We need to sustain employment in all sectors of the economy and get more people back to work.Between 2012 and 2025, the oil and gas industry is projected to support $1.6 trillion in federal and state tax revenue, supporting the maintenance of schools, hospitals and public infrastructure across the country. If the oil and gas revenue stream dries up, major public services will be reduced or even cut.The oil and gas industry are also a critical partner in developing clean and energy-efficient technology. The industry spends more than $4.5 billion annually on research and development, partnering with universities and research labs nationwide. This scientific pipeline and the innovations it brings will be shut off by proposals that over-regulate, tax and curb investment in the industry. Finally, we must keep more money in the pockets of American families, many of whom are now one-job households or are experiencing reduced hours. When families buy power from diverse energy suppliers, they are provided options, which lowers costs. Abundant oil and gas production help save American consumers an estimated $203 billion annually, or $2,500 for a family of four. That’s real money to many people who need it all across the country.

Biden's fracking stance may cut 19M jobs, raise electric prices: Energy secretary | Fox Business - A Joe Biden presidency could undo the fracking executive order, which could come at astronomical costs to the U.S. The abolishment of hydraulic fracturing technology could lead to the loss of 19 million jobs, according to U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette. “This technology, hydraulic fracturing, has produced the largest economic boom that we have known in our lifetimes,” Brouillette told Stuart Varney on FOX Business’ "Varney & Co." “We are now a net energy exporter in the United States. The one thing that can’t be undone is the economic progress that’s occurred since this president took office in 2017. It has been enormous. Absolutely enormous.” Energy prices in the outlook of a Biden future would also hurt consumers, Brouillette pointed out. Prices on electricity and natural gas would skyrocket. Fracking also produces crude oil, and its elimination could potentially increase the price of gasoline throughout the country.

 Op-ed: A fact-based conversation about fracking - Randi Pokladnik - Fracking has contaminated water wells and a 2020 article in the Journal of Petroleum Technology stated “wellbore integrity cannot be taken for granted.” The XTO Energy well blowout in Belmont County in February 2018 was from a “failure of the gas well’s casing or internal lining.” This blowout released the equivalent of an entire year’s worth of methane by oil and gas industries in countries like France. Methane gas is much more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping gas and according to a study in Biogeosciences, a significant portion of the anthropocentric methane emission increases are due to the fracking boom in North America.The waste water left over after a well is fracked is known as “produced water.” In addition to brine, which is a result of the prehistoric conditions which formed the oil and gas reserves, the waste also contains radioactive materials (Radium -226 and Radium-228) and any chemicals initially injected with the fluid.In 1978, the EPA exempted oil and gas wastes from exploration and production activities from the hazardous waste management program Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This includes produced water, drilling fluids and drill cuttings. Yet, in 2002 the EPA admitted that just because the wastes were exempt this did not mean that wastes could not present a hazard to human health and the environment.The oil and gas industries are also exempt or excluded from certain sections of these federal environmental laws: Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act and Emergency Planning and Community Right-to Know Act.To claim that “millions of jobs” will go away if fracking is banned is misleading at best. The industry has been in decline for several years. An August 2020 article in OilPrice.com stated,“Driven by low prices not seen much in modern history, formerly high-flying shale drillers like Chesapeake Energy have gone bankrupt. The Service providers like Halliburton and Schlumberger have written off tens of billions worth of fracking-related equipment, closed facilities and laid off thousands of workers.”Unlike oil and gas, solar and wind “feedstock” is free and as pointed out in a recent CleanTechnica article, “it takes years to design, build and activate any coal or gas-powered facility.” A 50 MW wind farm can be built in six months. Residential solar can be installed in a few days. Internal reports show oil and gas industry scientists knew back in the 1980s about the negative effects their products would have on the earth’s climate. Yet, for nearly thirty years they spent millions of dollars promoting climate denial. They also realized clean renewable energy is quickly replacing dirty fossil fuels. In order to save their bottom line, they are now pushing plastics production as a use for fracked gas.

 Officials begin evaluation of oil spill cleanup efforts along Del., Md. coastline – The Unified Command for the Delaware Bay and Atlantic coastal beaches oil response has begun the process of evaluating cleanup operations across sections of Delaware and Maryland coastline impacted by tar balls and oiled debris to determine how much of the beach cleanup has been completed. We’re told the evaluation process requires an assessment using stringent federal and state guidelines to determine whether cleanup crews have been successful in their efforts or whether more work is required. “We have good reason to believe from our on-scene monitoring that the clearance of oil and cleanup efforts of oily debris from the beaches are largely complete. I would like to emphasize that people may continue to see small bits of oil or oily debris coming ashore here and there,” said Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Secretary Shawn Garvin. “The Unified Command of DNREC and the U.S. Coast Guard is following the outgoing high tide today to get an accurate accounting on a decision to sign off the cleanup or continue it at respective locations.” Cleanup crews will continue to respond to beaches that have been cleared, should more impacts be spotted during shoreline assessments. As beaches are cleared, crews are positioned to shift resources to areas that may need further attention. To date, crews have collected and disposed of more than 75 tons of oiled debris and tar balls. The cleanup effort today was continuing from points north to Cape Henlopen to the Atlantic beaches to Fenwick Island. Officials say the cause of the spill remains unknown, but the investigation is continuing by the U.S. Coast Guard. If a source is identified, the responsible party would be required to reimburse the federal government for the cleanup operation. The public may still see small spots of oil or isolated bits of debris. Any large portions of oil or oily debris on the sand or in the water should be reported.

Tennessee Gas and contractor to pay $800,000 in penalties, repairs over controversial natural gas project in Otis State Forest -  Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company and its contractor which installed a controversial natural gas line through Otis State Forest will pay a total of $800,000 in fines and to make repairs after damaging an ecologically-important vernal pool, failing to protect wetlands and damaging the roadway during the construction.Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company and its contractor Henkels & McCoy, Inc. will make about $300,000 in penalties and payments to the Massachusetts Natural Resource Damages Trust and will spend about $500,000 to repave part of Cold Spring Road, in Sandisfield, according to the agreement between the company and its contractor Henkels & McCoy Inc. and Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey.The damage was done in 2017 while the company was installing a four-mile line through Otis State Forest as part of a 14-mile pipe extension that cut through New York and Connecticut. The work drew multiple protests and led to more than a dozen arrests for civil disobedience.Under the claim, Tennessee Gas was accused of failing to maintain erosion and sediment controls causing soil and sediment to run into more than 630 square feet of wetlands. It was also accused of excavating and filling portions of a vernal pool and shutting down a required pump temporarily degrading water quality in Spectacle Pond Brook, the Attorney General’s office said in announcing the settlement.In a second location, the companies were also accused of dumping 15,000 gallons of contaminated pipeline test water directly onto the ground adjacent to Tennessee Gas' pipeline compressor station in Agawam, the announcement said. “Tennessee Gas repeatedly assured the state and Sandisfield residents that water quality and wetlands would be protected during pipeline construction, but they failed to make that happen,” Healey said in writing. “My office will continue to hold accountable those who violate our critical environmental protection laws.”

Williams Reports Record Appalachian Natural Gas Volumes Amid Stronger Pricing - Midstream giant Williams reported record natural gas gathering and processing (G&P) volumes in the Appalachian region during the third quarter, driven by higher prices in the region. Gross gathering volumes for the Northeast G&P segment rose 8% year/year (y/y) to 9.4 Bcf/d, while gross processing plant inlet volumes swelled by 17% to 1.4 Bcf/d, management said during a third quarter earnings conference call. Natural gas liquids (NGL) production volumes from the segment rose 24% to 114 million b/d. The volumes were all-time highs across the board for the Tulsa-based operator. Recent highlights for Williams also include the partial in-service of the Southeastern Trail expansion of the flagship Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco) system. The company brought 150 MMcf/d of the 296 MMcf/d expansion online Nov. 1. Up to an additional 80 MMcf/d is expected online before the end of the year, with the balance of the expansion expected in-service in early 2021. Williams also filed a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pre-filing application in June for the 760 MMcf/d Regional Energy Access expansion on Transco, which aims to connect Marcellus Shale gas supplies with growing Northeast demand in time for the 2023-2024 heating season. “This strong performance is evidence of the attractive position of our Northeast business as gas market fundamentals begin to call on U.S. dry gas supplies,” CEO Alan Armstrong told analysts. He highlighted that Williams is the largest gatherer in the Appalachian Basin, the country’s most prolific source of gas production, propelled by the Marcellus and Utica shales. “Our dedications include the most attractive acreage operated by resilient producers that continue to demonstrate their ability to continuously improve on their cost structures,” he said. “You can see this playing out as our Northeast gathering volumes grew faster than the total Northeast supplies… “So we really are not only in the right basin, but we’re also in the right parts of the basin in the Appalachian area. We expect this trend to continue in response to the very favorable forward strip pricing in ’21 and a very well-positioned group of customers in both the Marcellus and Utica.” Williams expects to meet its pre-Covid 2020 earnings guidance set last December. Armstrong attributed the company’s durability to “the premier positions of our natural gas infrastructure” and measures taken “to reduce leverage, increase stability and lower costs…Our gathering and processing business continues to benefit from our basin diversity, specifically in gas-directed areas where drilling remains active. “In addition, we continue to grow services to key producers in the Gulf of Mexico deepwater, where we have major dedications.”

Agency declines to stop work on Mountain Valley Pipeline, foes again turn to court - The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is standing by its opinion that tree cutting and stream fording for a massive pipeline will not imperil endangered or threatened species. One week after environmental groups asked the service to stay its biological opinion for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, pending a legal challenge, the agency declined the request on Monday. Within hours, the Sierra Club had filed a petition seeking a delay from the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The Richmond-based court has already temporarily stayed a second set of permits, in which the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers authorized the buried natural gas pipeline to cross nearly 1,000 streams and wetlands. What happens in the coming weeks will likely determine whether Mountain Valley can meet its goal of completing construction by early next year. In August 2019, a coalition of environmental groups challenged a 2017 biological opinion in which the Fish and Wildlife Service said pipeline construction is not likely to jeopardize two protected fish, the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter, or two species of bats, the Indiana and northern long-eared bat. After the 4th Circuit stayed the opinion in October 2019, the Fish and Wildlife Service spent a year reviewing its evidence before issuing a new opinion Sept. 4 that was essentially the same as the first. The Sierra Club and 10 other environmental and conservation groups sued a second time. “The record shows that the Fish and Wildlife Service has again cut corners, ignored or weakened technical standards, and excluded pertinent facts without justification in approving of damages to endangered fish species and bats,” read a statement from David Sligh with Wild Virginia, one of the groups involved in the lawsuit. According to the petition, resuming work on the often-delayed, $5.7 billion project would again clog streams with sediment, pushing the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter closer to extinction. And cutting trees for a 125-foot right of way has already destroyed the habitat of protected bats along the largely rural and mountainous route of the pipeline, the groups allege. The Fish and Wildlife Service conducted only a “cursory analysis” before concluding that no cumulative effects were expected in an area of more than a million acres and 1,163 miles of streams and rivers, the petition states. In asking for a stay before the case is decided, the Sierra Club said in court papers that heavy machinery and construction activity has been observed along the pipeline’s 303-mile path through West Virginia and Southwest Virginia. . Work is currently allowed in all areas except for stream crossings and a segment of the pipeline that passes through a national forest. 

Environmental Groups Ask Federal Court To Once Again Stop Construction Of The Mountain Valley Pipeline -- Environmental organizations, led by local advocacy group Appalachian Voices, have once again asked a federal court to halt construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.  In a motion filed Monday in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, the groups asked the court to stop construction of the 303-mile natural gas pipeline, which is more than 90 percent completed, while the federal bench sorts through the legality around two newly reissued federal permits. The permits, reissued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in early September, include the Biological Opinion and Incidental Take Statement for the Mountain Valley Pipeline. The permits address concerns around how the project could impact endangered species. In October 2019, the Fourth Circuit tossed the project’s Biological Opinion and halted the project following a similar lawsuit by environmental groups.  In the new motion, Appalachian Voices argues the agency did not consider all of the appropriate information before reissuing the approvals.  The project, from developer EQT, goes through northwestern West Virginia and southern Virginia. In the Mountain State it crosses Wetzel, Harrison, Doddridge, Lewis, Braxton, Webster, Nicholas, Greenbrier, Fayette, Summers, and Monroe Counties. The project has faced several court challenges in the past two years over state and federal permits on both sides of the border. The multi-billion dollar project would carry 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to markets on the East Coast.  In a separate lawsuit, environmental groups are also challenging a permit that allows the pipeline to cross streams and wetlands. The Fourth Circuit hastemporarily blocked construction across waterways. Oral arguments are scheduled for Nov. 9.

Another delay, cost increase for the Mountain Valley Pipeline - The Mountain Valley Pipeline has once again pushed its completion date back and the project cost up. Equitrans Midstream Corp., the lead partner in a joint venture of five energy companies that has faced widespread environmental problems while building the natural gas pipeline, made the announcement Tuesday. Rather than completing construction early next year as planned, the company is now targeting a full in-service date “during the second half of 2021,” a news release stated. The cost, which was estimated to be $3.7 billion when construction started in 2018, now stands at between $5.8 billion and $6 billion. The latest increase was attributed largely to the more costly task of continuing construction through the winter, which Mountain Valley plans to do in order to make up time lost to legal challenges. Despite the latest setback, Equitrans chairman and CEO Thomas Karam remained bullish on the project during a conference call to discuss third quarter results with financial analysts. “Our confidence has not changed because of these expected challenges, at all,” he said. Environmentalists say the buried pipeline will sully the scenic landscape of Southwest Virginia, clog its streams and rivers with harmful sediment washed from construction sites, and jeopardize endangered species of fish and bats. The Sierra Club and similar groups have challenged about a half-dozen permits issued to Mountain Valley over the past three years. Last month, a federal appeals court temporarily stayed a set of steam-crossing permits while it considers the case, and approval for the pipeline to pass through the Jefferson National Forest is still pending. Another lawsuit was filed last week against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service over its conclusion that the pipeline would not jeopardize protected species. Nonetheless, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently lifted a year-long stop work order, and construction crews are gearing up along the pipeline’s 303-mile path through West Virginia and Southwest Virginia.

Equitrans reports increased cost estimate, delayed in-service date for Mountain Valley Pipeline --Equitrans Midstream Corporation (ETRN) said this week that the cost estimate of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) is now between $5.8 billion and $6 billion and the project’s full in-service date is anticipated during the second half of 2021. MVP is a proposed underground, interstate natural gas pipeline system, expected to span roughly 303 miles from northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia and designed to transport clean-burning natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale regions.  When construction started on the pipeline in 2018, the cost was estimated to be $3.7 billion. In its financial and operational report for the third quarter, ETRN attributes the latest increase to the more costly task of continuing construction through the winter following unanticipated legal delays during the prime 2020 construction season. A major breakthrough for the project was the recent lift of a year-long stop work order from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, allowing MVP to move forward with construction along the majority of the route. Environmental groups have long opposed the pipeline, however, arguing that it will mar the landscape of southwest Virginia, clog streams and rivers with harmful sediment washed from its construction, and jeopardize endangered species of fish and bats in the region. The activist groups have challenged several permits issued to MVP over the last three years, including a lawsuit filed last week against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service over its conclusion that the pipeline would not affect protected species. In September, MVP received the project’s new Biological Opinion. A challenge was filed against the Biological Opinion in late October. Additionally, shortly after receiving approval for the project’s Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP12) from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary administrative stay of the MWP12, preventing construction of waterbody crossings under the USACE’s MWP12 program until the Court rules on the full motion to stay. The Court scheduled oral arguments for Nov. 9.

Equitrans confident Mountain Valley Pipeline will be complete in 2021 - Equitrans Midstream Corp. executives expressed confidence the Mountain Valley Pipeline would be completed in 2021 despite the myriad of legal action and other challenges that have led it to miss completion deadlines and seen the cost jump to what is now expected to be nearly $6 billion. Equitrans earlier Tuesday had moved the full in-service date for the Mountain Valley Pipeline from early 2021 to the second half of 2021. Costs have gone from the estimated $5.4 billion most recently to what the company now says will be between $5.8 billion and $6 billion. “While we are disappointed with the setbacks that have led to cost increases and delays, we remain steadfast that MVP will reach completion and, more importantly, that the value of this critical infrastructure project will be realized,” said Equitrans President Diana Charletta during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. Between Tuesday’s announcement and the conference call there was some good news for Equitrans: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission had approved variances requested by Equitrans and the U.S. Forest Service over some work in the Jefferson National Forest. FERC in October had removed its stop-work order to allow construction but a key U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permit that would allow waterbody crossings has been challenged in court and is the subject of a U.S. Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals temporary stay. Oral arguments in the stay are set for Nov. 9. “We’ve made progress on the regulatory front with MVP and are back to forward construction,” said CEO Tom Karam. Monday afternoon, opponents of the MVP filed a motion to stay the biological opinion of environmental impact that was given by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Karam said it wasn’t unexpected. “We remain confident in the strength of MVP’s revised biological opinion and we’re preparing a response to that motion,” Karam said. “Our confidence has not changed because of these expected challenges at all. We will continue to work with our partners, our federal and state agencies, to complete the pipeline in 2021.”

Photos: Work resumes on the Mountain Valley Pipeline -- As work gears up on the Mountain Valley Pipeline, construction crews in Roanoke and Franklin counties are confronting some of the steepest mountain slopes along its 303-mile path.In early October — before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission allowed work to resume — Roanoke County sent a letter to the commission expressing concerns about Mountain Valley’s “continuing inability to manage erosion and sediment impacts for the project.”Assistant County Administrator Richard Caywood wrote that the problems could worsen as construction continues through the winter, when grass and other vegetation planted to control erosion is unlikely to take root.FERC did not respond to the county’s Oct. 6 letter. “It’s typically a one-way street with these types of things,” Caywood said Thursday.

Limpert: More volume in pipeline means more risk - Two recent announcements portend even more risk for citizens along the unneeded and unjust Mountain Valley Pipeline. The MVP announced it may increase volume from 2 to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), and the EPA announced that it is eliminating pipeline leakage rules. More gas and more leaks is a recipe for disaster. A recent study found that natural gas transmission lines, like the MVP, average losses of 0.35% through leaks and intentional discharges, with 90% of the losses from leaks. A 0.35% loss at 2 bcf/d is 7 million cubic feet per day. At 2.5 bcf/d those losses increase to 8.75 million cubic feet per day. Relaxing leak standards will likely further increase these already high volume losses. Everything that would leak or be discharged from the MVP is a pollutant. This pollution would enter our environment, and could enter our bodies through inhalation or ingestion. The natural gas that would be lost from the MVP is around 95% methane. Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas. Over a 20-year period methane is 84 times a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Methane levels in our atmosphere are already 2.5 times higher than prior to the industrial revolution, and higher than they have been in at least the past 800,000 years. These levels are expected to continue to rise if natural gas use continues. This will further worsen climate change. Methane is also highly explosive. More pressure required to move the increased volume of gas in the MVP would result in an even more catastrophic explosion should the pipe fail. Leaks that continue as a result of the EPA rule elimination could result in pipe failure and explosion. The remaining 5% of the gas stream is a witch’s brew of carcinogens, mutagens, toxins and radioactive materials with significant health and environmental impacts. It includes ethane, propane, butane, pentane, hexane, heptane, octane, hydrogen sulfide, benzene, toluene, benzoic acid and naphthaline. All have negative health impacts, and many are extremely dangerous, even in small amounts. The gas stream also includes radioactive substances. These include, but may not be limited to radon-222, lead-210 and polonium-210. EPA has determined that radon-222 causes 21,000 lung cancer deaths per year in our country. Lead is an extremely toxic metal, and even in its nonradioactive state it is listed second on the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry priority list, only behind arsenic. One microgram of polonium-210 is more than enough to kill a person. All of these pollutants are likely to be discharged every day from the MVP. William Limpert is a retired environmental regulator who formerly lived in Bath County along the route of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.

Putting a pipeline through a forest: a foregone conclusion? - When public agencies and boards made crucial decisions about the Mountain Valley Pipeline, the outcome was often influenced by a pro-industry panel called the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. That, at least, has been the mantra of opponents to the natural gas pipeline being built through the New River and Roanoke valleys. But shortly after the U.S. Forest Service allowed Mountain Valley to pass through the Jefferson National Forest in 2017, one of the agency’s regional planning directors who was involved in the process reached the same conclusion. The Forest Service “was not in the driver’s seat” when it came to making a final decision, Peter Gaulke wrote in an email to colleagues. FERC was. “It is fair to say there were pains of adjustment as we tried to merge our USFS way of business with the FERC way of business,” Gaulke wrote in a Nov. 28, 2017, review of the process. “This was not easy and still has a level of discomfort for the Forest and the Regional Office,” the email stated. One of the key issues was whether building the 303-mile interstate pipeline — the largest such project ever proposed in the Jefferson National Forest — would produce more erosion and sedimentation than the public woodlands could bear. Gaulke’s email, provided to The Roanoke Times in response to a Freedom of Information Act request, is “shocking and eye-opening,” said Rupert Cutler of Roanoke, who oversaw the Forest Service as assistant secretary of agriculture from 1977 to 1980. “It proves that the Forest Service felt emasculated and victimized by the FERC-dominated MVP decision-making process,” Cutler said. Eight months after Gaulke raised his concerns, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals threw out Mountain Valley’s permit to cross 3.5 miles of the national forest. Siding with the Sierra Club and other environmental groups, the court found that the Forest Service was too accepting of the company’s assurances that erosion would not be a major problem.

 Dominion closes on sale of majority of natural gas assets -Richmond-based Dominion Energy Inc. announced Monday that it has closed on the sale of the majority of its gas transmission and storage assets to Berkshire Hathaway Energy (a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. affiliate) for approximately $2.7 billion in cash and the transfer of approximately $5.3 billion of related indebtedness.In July following the cancelation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project, Dominion announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to sell off its gas transmission and storage segment assets for $9.7 billion, including the assumption of  $5.7 billion in existing debt to abandon the pipeline project. The 600-mile, $8 billion-plus natural gas pipeline was supposed to run from West Virginia through Virginia to eastern North Carolina.The deal announced Monday includes more than 5,500 miles of interstate gas transmission pipelines, approximately 775 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas storage that the company operates and an operating 25% stake in the Cove Point gas liquefaction facility in Maryland. The sale is expected to be complete in early 2021 following a Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance, which provides the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice information about large acquisitions prior to completion. Dominion has also received an approximate $1.3 billion cash payment in anticipation of the sale of the interests. It will transfer approximately $430 million of related debt to Berkshire Hathaway Energy upon closing. Announced in 2014 and originally planned to begin transporting natural gas by late 2019, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline was delayed by legal proceedings and opposition from environmental groups and landowners in the pathway of the pipeline’s construction route. On June 15, the U.S. Supreme Court handed down a ruling that would have allowed the pipeline to cross under the Appalachian Trail, hailed by Dominion and Duke as a major victory toward completing the pipeline, which was identified by the Trump administration as a priority infrastructure project. Before announcing the project’s cancellation, Dominion and Duke Energy Corp. had hoped to put the pipeline into operation by 2022. The transaction is expected to reduce Dominion Energy’s debt by $6 billion. The company also expects total share repurchases its common stock to be at least $3 billion.

Dominion comes full circle as it works to offload remaining US gas pipeline assets  — Dominion Energy is on the verge of returning to its utility roots as it nears offloading the remainder of its US natural gas pipeline assets to Berkshire Hathaway, CEO Thomas Farrell said Nov. 5. With electricity demand stable or growing in parts of its business and more revenue certainty from operating in regulated markets, Dominion sees its future much the way it started.  That's a reversal from the hybrid utility energy infrastructure company that Farrell and other executives sought to build in recent years with the acquisition of Questar Pipeline, the construction of the Cove Point LNG export facility in Maryland, and the proposal to build the Atlantic Coast Pipeline to deliver more Appalachian Basin gas to downstream utility customers. In July, Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy substantially all of Dominion's gas pipeline and storage assets for $4 billion in cash and the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt. Berkshire Hathaway completed the purchase of the bulk of the assets earlier in November. The sale of the remaining 20%, including Questar and related infrastructure, is on track to lose in early 2021, Farrell said during a conference call to discuss Dominion's third-quarter financial results.With the transaction, Berkshire Hathaway is now the operator of Cove Point, an important outlet for US gas to Europe and beyond with a capacity of about 5.25 million mt/year, and holds a 25% stake. Dominion retains a 50% passive ownership. When it announced the midstream assets sale, Dominion also scrapped the $8 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline, amid ballooning costs and fierce legal opposition from environmental groups."We believe that the investment proposition created through Dominion Energy's strategic repositioning is compelling," Farrell said. "We have a strong balance sheet and a significantly improved business risk profile." While Dominion is shifting its focus back to its core regulated utility businesses, Berkshire Hathaway is making a bigger bet on gas midstream and LNG. Farrell said the strategy reversal is the right one for Dominion in an uncertain commodity market and US political environment.

 Natural-Gas Drillers Outshine Oil Peers as Covid-19 Surges - The Wall Street Journal - A split reality is emerging for U.S. shale drillers: Those that primarily pump oil are still struggling to survive, while those that produce natural gas are slowly seeing signs of recovery.Oil-focused fracking companies are under extreme financial strain, as renewed concerns about the coronavirus pandemic are weighing down crude prices. But gas-focused drillers are getting a long-awaited reprieve. Natural-gas prices are climbing ahead of winter, and are less sensitive to lockdowns that erode demand for transportation fuels.U.S. benchmark oil prices tumbled about 11% last month to their lowest level since early June, before edging up to $36.81 a barrel on Monday, as some European countries imposed new lockdowns amid a resurgence in cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Meanwhile, U.S. benchmark natural-gas prices soared 33% last month to their highest level in nearly two years, before settling slightly lower on Monday at $3.24 per million British thermal units.The result is a reversal of fortunes in the U.S. shale patch, where oil companies have long overshadowed their gas-focused peers. The market value of the six largest public Appalachian gas companies, including EQT Corp. and Range Resources Corp., has climbed about 18% since the start of 2020. That compares with a 53% drop in the combined market capitalization of the 25 largest U.S. oil companies, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.“Being in natural gas, we think, is an important thing right now,” Marathon Petroleum Corp.MPC 1.95% Chief Executive Michael Hennigan said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call Monday.The Ohio-based refiner reported a $1 billion quarterly loss as its fuel-making business posted a $1.6 billion loss from operations, compared with $989 million in operating income during the same period last year. The company’s pipeline business, which includes natural-gas processing and transportation, helped to offset those losses, generating $960 million in operating income, up from $919 million a year earlier.U.S. shale-oil producers likely will struggle to hold production flat over the next two years, compared with December 2020 levels, ConocoPhillips COP -3.04% Chief Operating Officer Matt Fox said last week. The company expects U.S. shale drillers to pump 6.5 million to seven million barrels a day of oil in December, down from 8.2 million a year earlier.“If you compare that to the trajectory we were on, that’s at least four million barrels a day less than the pre-Covid trend,” Mr. Fox told analysts, explaining that production would likely have been up, not down, from a year earlier without the pandemic. ConocoPhillips, one of the largest independent U.S. oil producers, reported a $450 million loss for the third quarter, compared with a $3.1 billion profit a year earlier.

US natural gas futures fall on milder weather - US natural gas futures fell on Monday as forecasts indicated milder weather in the coming days, but prices stayed near a 21-month high hit in the last session on surging liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Front-month gas futures fell 11.0 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $3.244 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract rose to its highest since January 2019 at $3.396. "Traders are focused on the short term weather outlook for mid-to-late November and with the heating degree days running warmer than normal, we are seeing selling this morning," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. However, demand is strong right now amid record LNG feedgas estimates from this past weekend, DiDona added. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was near record peak as rising global prices over the past couple of months prompted buyers in Europe and Asia to purchase more US gas. Analysts said US utilities withdrew 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage in the week ended Oct. 30. That compares with an increase of 49 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 52 bcf. "With the arrival of November, HDD accumulation will exert more impact as far as weekly storage shifts are concerned," advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "We still see the dynamic of surplus contraction across this month as a powerful force that will be limiting downside price possibilities." Data provider Refinitiv predicted 215 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 US states, compared with 213 forecast on Friday. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

US natural gas futures little changed on mild weather - - US natural gas futures were little changed on Wednesday as record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports offset forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in mid-November and a steady rise in output. Front-month gas futures for December delivery slipped 1.3 cents to settle at $3.046 per million British thermal units. That put the contract down about 9% since hitting a 21-month high of $3.396 on Oct. 30 and lower for a third day in a row for the first time since early September. Those front-month declines caused the premium of the December 2021 contract over December 2020 to rise to its highest since April 2011. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states rose to an 11-week high of 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, up 4.8 bcfd since Hurricane Zeta hit the Gulf Coast on Oct. 28 as energy firms restored output from Gulf of Mexico wells shut ahead of the storm. Output averaged 89.6 bcfd so far in November, up from a five-month low of 87.4 bcfd in October. That, however, was still well below the all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Production declined earlier this year as low prices due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut oil and gas wells and cut drilling by so much that output from new wells no longer offsets existing well declines. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would drop from an average of 96.7 bcfd this week to 93.2 bcfd next week. That forecast is lower than Refinitiv expected on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants hit a record 10.2 bcfd on Tuesday as rising global prices over the past couple of months prompted buyers in Europe and Asia to purchase more US gas.

Early Storage Withdrawal Not Enough to Fuel December Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures gave up more ground Thursday — a fourth consecutive daily decline — as traders focused more on weather-induced demand weakness than the first storage withdrawal of the season, a bullish print that pointed to balances tightening ahead of winter. EIA storage Oct 30 The December Nymex contract fell 10.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.942/MMBtu. The front month had lost more than 9% over the three previous days. January shed 9.3 cents to $3.084. Spot gas prices declined, as well, amid mild fall temperatures across most of the Lower 48 that did little to spur either heating or cooling demand. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 17.5 cents to $2.170. As market observers anticipated, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a pull from natural gas storage for the week ending Oct 30. But the withdrawal of 36 Bcf exceeded expectations. Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey found a median estimate of a 31 Bcf decrease, while a Reuters poll landed at a median decrease of 27 Bcf. NGI forecast a 28 Bcf pull. Futures climbed ahead and immediately after the report in morning trading, but reversed course within a few minutes of EIA’s 10:30 ET release and hovered deep in the red through the rest of the day. The withdrawal, spurred by production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Zeta’s arrival last Wednesday and a cold blast that boosted heating demand as far south as Texas during the covered week, not only marked the first pull of the season but it arrived two weeks early when compared to historical norms. The result compared to a 49 Bcf injection a year earlier and the five-year average build for the week of 52 Bcf.

Weekly Natural Gas Prices Plunge as Mild Temperatures Sap Demand - Natural Gas Intelligence - In a stark reversal from the prior week, temperatures climbed rapidly out of freezing territory and into the 60s and 70s across much of the Midwest, cutting off heating demand and driving down weekly cash prices. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Nov. 2-6 period nosedived 61.5 cents to $2.385 as comfortable fall temperatures settled in across most of the Lower 48. A week earlier, when an early shot of winter blanked the nation’s midsection, weekly prices jumped 59.5 cents. Between the two weeks, the early winter gave way to a late round of near summer-like weather in the Midwest, and temperatures elsewhere were generally mild, minimizing furnace and air conditioner use. Bespoke Weather Services said the week’s warmth put the current month on track to finish as one of the top five warmest Novembers on record in terms of gas-weighted degree days. The lack of weather-driven demand more than offset strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels. LNG feed gas volumes hovered in 2020 peak territory of around 10 Bcf throughout the week. “It remains a weather-versus-balance battle, but one that weather is winning as long as we see such high-end warmth,” the firm said. “We still have no clear hints that we will move colder even into the late-month at this time.” On the supply front, meanwhile, offshore production largely recovered during the latest covered week after widespread shut-ins a week earlier as Category 2 Hurricane Zeta barreled into the Gulf of Mexico. This added a layer of pressure on prices. Weekly prices plummeted across the Lower 48. Tenn Zone 5 200L fell $1.550 to average $1.295, while Dominion Energy Cove Point dropped $1.035 to $1.395, and Algonquin Citygate sank $2.675 to $1.600. Additionally, coronavirus outbreaks dampened economic activity and energy demand over swaths of the United States, particularly in the Upper Midwest. Several states in the region – Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas – were all grappling with surges and record case levels.While natural gas prices are poised to recover when colder weather returns, the pandemic threatens to intensify as people are indoors more in the winter, hastening virus spread. “The situation is likely to get worse,”

Natural Gas Rigs Slide as Oil Gains Push US Count to 300 -  The U.S. natural gas rig count fell one unit to 71 for the week ending Friday (Nov. 6), while more gains in the oil patch lifted the overall U.S. rig count four units to an even 300, according to the latest data published by Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). The BKR numbers, which are based on data provided in part by Enverus Drillinginfo, showed a five-rig increase in oil-directed drilling in the United States for the week, offsetting the net decline of one natural gas-directed rig. The overall U.S. count ended the week 517 units behind the 817 rigs running at this time last year.Still, after plummeting in the economic aftermath of efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, total U.S. rigs have now increased for eight straight weeks.Land drilling increased by four domestically, while one rig was deployed to inland waters. Gulf of Mexico rigs fell one unit to end at 12. Horizontal units increased by five, while vertical units increased by two, offsetting a decline of three directional rigs for the week.The Canadian rig count finished unchanged on the week at 86, with a three-rig increase in gas-directed drilling offsetting a three-rig decline in oil-directed units. The Canadian count finished 54 units behind the 140 rigs active in the year-ago period. The combined North American rig count ended the week at 386, off from 957 a year ago.Among major plays, the Permian Basin led with an increase of five units on the week, upping its total to 147. That’s still down sharply from 412 rigs active there a year ago.Elsewhere among plays, the Cana Woodford and Eagle Ford Shale each added two rigs, while the Marcellus and Utica shales each declined by one.  Broken down by state, Texas added six rigs on the week to finish with 139, while New Mexico added three rigs, ending the period with an even 50. Ohio, Oklahoma and West Virginia each dropped one rig from their respective totals.

CenterPoint Energy files for recovery after completion of $240M natural gas pipeline modernization effort -Southern Indiana Gas and Electric Co., a subsidiary of CenterPoint Energy, filed a request last week to recover investments made in its southwestern natural gas service territory following the completion of a seven-year, $240 million modernization effort for its pipelines. The company’s pursuit of the plan began in 2013 and included upgrades to portions of a 3,200-mile network of distribution mains and transmission pipelines serving nine counties in southwestern Indiana. Bare steel and cast iron were swapped for plastic, inspections were undertaken, and upgrades were pursued as necessary. The results have already been felt, too: SIGECO reported a 36 percent reduction in methane emissions since 2013. “These infrastructure investments are vital to meeting federal mandates and ensuring the safe and reliable delivery of natural gas to our customers,” Richard Leger, CenterPoint’s vice president of natural gas distribution for Indiana and Ohio, said. “While our natural gas customers will experience a base rate increase to their bills, it will be the first time in nearly 14 years we have pursued such recovery.” For the average residential customer, this increase would reach around $15 per month. 

Trump claims of Wisconsin job losses over fracking are implausible --  It was a big claim and a bigger number.In an essay written for the Journal Sentinel last week, President Trump wrote:“Biden has repeatedly pledged to ban fracking throughout his campaign. ... This radical energy policy means the elimination of 300,000 Wisconsin jobs, according to a report by the Global Energy Institute at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.”300,000 jobs.Is that plausible?Not really.  First, it’s false to say that Joe Biden "has repeatedly pledged to ban fracking” —  short for hydraulic fracturing, a method of extracting oil and natural gas from rock formations.The former vice president has said he would only ban new gas and oil permits on federal lands. Existing fracking would be unscathed, under his plan. Second, even if Biden did cave to pressure from progressives in the Democratic Party who want an outright ban — Bernie Sanders, say — it's simply not conceivable that existing fracking would go away all at once or at all.But this is the fear of some conservatives and the dream of some liberals so let's take a closer look at the evidence for Trump's claim.The chamber’s dire study, published in late 2019, found that Wisconsin would lose 300,000 jobs over a five-year period and $8.3 billion in state and local tax revenue.Wisconsin has some jobs directly tied to fracking because the state produces sand used in the process, but the vast majority of jobs at risk are in energy-intensive industries such as manufacturing and agriculture, the study found.But two economists I spoke with have big questions about the study's methodology and findings.Tim Bartik, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute in Kalamazoo, Michigan, says the study assumes there would be no adjustments in the economy if fracking was banned, which isn't the case.“It vastly overstates the impact,” he wrote in an email. “All the Wisconsin impact is done by assuming that the fracking ban just sucks money out of the U.S. economy and sends it to Mars, and there are no macroeconomic adjustments due to this other than lower demand. These are not reasonable assumptions to make.“So, the 300,000 job loss impact is overstated by roughly ... 300,000. Well, to be conservative, maybe by 299,000.”

Louisiana approves property tax measure tied to oil, gas production  — Louisiana voters approved a change to the state constitution to allow the presence or production of oil or gas to be taken into account when assessing the fair market value of an oil or gas well for ad valorem property taxes. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Constitutional Amendment 2 received 58% of votes with 97% of precincts reporting, according to preliminary results from the Louisiana Secretary of State. Supporters said the measure would ensure that when wells are more valuable, owners will pay more taxes, but when they are less valuable, they will pay lower taxes, the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association said. It was also supported by the Louisiana Tax Committee, Louisiana Tax Assessor's Association, and the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association.

Shell mulls closure of some oil refineries if it can't sell them; Convent on the list - The Shell oil refinery in Convent is up for sale but could face closure if the company doesn't find a buyer as it consolidates its refinery portfolio from 14 sites to only six by 2025.  Shell warned local officials several months ago that it was testing the market for the potential sale of the Convent site, located between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, and its associated facilities.   "We've had success (with asset sales) in the past in difficult markets. If it's not possible, we'll consider closing and shutting down," Chief Financial Officer Jessica Uhl said during a conference call with analysts and investors. The company does expect to keep "refinery capacity in the key markets tied to our chemical business," she said. Shell plans to consolidate its assets into six energy and chemical parks, which includes the Norco site near New Orleans. Other sites are in Deer Park, Texas; The Netherlands; Singapore; Germany; and Canada. The new petrochemical parks are expected to be located near existing complexes, such as Shell's Geismar site in Ascension Parish. The goal is for the refineries to be more integrated with the chemical complexes and produce more biofuels, hydrogen and synthetic fuels, executives told investors. Other refineries under review for potential sale or closure include Puget Sound, Washington, and Mobile, Alabama, along with ones in Canada and Denmark. The Convent refinery sits on 4,400 acres that straddles Ascension and St. James parishes and can process 240,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It employs 700 Shell workers and 400 contract workers. The processing equipment connected to the plant is located in St. James Parish and occupies about 900 acres. Shell's subsidiary, Equilon Enterprises LLC, has $1.18 billion in total taxable value in St. James Parish and paid $18.8 million for the refinery in 2019, tax assessor records show. The refinery produces various grades of gasoline; jet fuel; diesel fuel and heating oil; propane and butane for residential and industrial use; and oil for tankers, power generation and vehicles. The facility has access to multiple major crude oil and product pipelines, which ship gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel. The site’s location on the Mississippi River allows shipping and receiving petroleum products aboard ocean-going vessels. The refinery uses two docks along 6,000 feet of Mississippi River access.

Shell decides to shutter the Convent oil refinery; hundreds of jobs lost - After failing to find a buyer for its refinery in Convent, Shell is shutting down the plant, which employs 700 company workers and 400 contract workers.The shutdown process is expected to begin in mid-November and run through the end of the year as the company consolidates its international oil refinery portfolio from 14 sites to only six by 2025. To free up some jobs for those displaced by the Convent shutdown, Shell is offering a voluntary severance program to some workers at its Norco refinery near New Orleans. Shell also operates a chemical plant in Geismar where some workers could land. Others without jobs will get help finding employment with other companies, Shell and the governor said Thursday. Shell will continue trying to sell the idled refinery, which sits midway between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, straddling Ascension and St. James parishes, and can process 240,000 barrels of crude oil per day. "Despite efforts to sell the asset, a viable buyer was never identified," said Curtis Smith, spokesperson for Shell. "After looking at all aspects of our business, including financial performance, we made the difficult decision to shut down the site." Shell is consolidating its assets into six energy and chemical parks internationally. The Norco refinery in conjunction with Shell's chemical complex in Geismar in Ascension Parish are one of the six sites. Shell's Convent and Norco facilities are unionized but its Geismar facility in Ascension Parish is not. A union representative could not be reached. The other sites are in Deer Park, Texas; The Netherlands; Singapore; Germany; and Canada. Shell said the goal is for the refineries to be more integrated with the chemical complexes to produce more biofuels, hydrogen and synthetic fuels as Shell positions itself for a transition from fossil fuels to a low-carbon future because customers are asking for lower carbon products.

Covington driller finds some success in deep offshore wells, looks to sell oil by 2022 - Covington-based LLOG Exploration found some successful oil production in two deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico after its initial discovery in mid-2019. LLOG Exploration has been bullish on investing in new oil and gas discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico despite a deeply depressed oil price market. The Spruance discovery happened when the company and its partners drilled below 1,600 feet of water using a subsalt exploratory well. Since then, one well has been drilled 17,000 feet and has shown about 150 net feet of oil play, which refers to the thickness of the oil reservoir. For scope, one of the most prolific wells, known as Shenandoah and drilled by ConocoPhillips, Marathon and Anadarko, had 1,000 feet of net play in 2013. But it's first appraisal in 2009 only found 300 net feet of oil play. In early October, a second well was drilled by LLOG Exploration at a 16,600-foot total depth and there was more than 200 net feet of oil discovered. The company expects to complete the wells in 2021 and begin selling oil by 2022. "The results of the second well confirmed our understanding of the field’s reserve potential," Philip LeJeune, CEO of LLOG Exploration said in a news release. LLOG inked a deal with Houston-based EnVen to use The Lobster oil platform, which sits 130 miles south of New Orleans in water 775 feet deep, to complete the wells in a production handling agreement for processing the oil and gas reserves. There were only 13 active oil rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as of Oct. 30, down from roughly 21 rigs one year ago, according to Baker Hughes data. There were only 9 active oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in 2016, a particularly low point since 2011. In Louisiana, there were 37 active rigs onshore as of late October, according to Baker Hughes data, down from 56 rigs one year ago.

Houston energy exec charged with bilking investors out of $1.2 million in oil and gas deals -- A Houston energy exec has been charged in an elaborate scheme to defraud 21 investors out of $1.2 million in oil and gas transactions, according to U.S. Attorney Ryan K. Patrick. A federal grand jury returned a 12-count indictment against Arael Doolittle, 55 who heads Sariel Petroleum LLC and Sariel Enterprises LLC.  According to Law 360, Doolittle operated a company that used bogus letters, phony email addresses and a bank account under the name of a Chevron-affiliated company in order to dupe companies into doing business with it."Doolittle falsely represented he had the necessary pre-existing relationships with major refiners and petroleum product suppliers to purchase fuels for resale to his customers," the U.S. Attorney's release stated.The indictment also alleges that Doolittle provided falsified documents to investors to substantiate and legitimize his holdings.The energy exec was slapped with eight counts of wire fraud and four counts of engaging in monetary transactions i n criminally derived funds. If convicted of wire fraud, Doolittle faces a potential 20-year-maximum sentence and a possible $250,000 maximum fine.

Houston energy companies cut losses; oil surges after vote -Houston oil and gas companies Apache Corp., Talos Energy and Weatherford pared their losses in the third quarter as production resumed after crude prices stabilized around $40 a barrel. Despite improved third-quarter results, oil and gas companies face a slow recovery from the economic fallout caused by the pandemic, which could keep global oil demand below pre-coronavirus levels until at least 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.  If crude prices continue to hover around $40 a barrel, exploration and production companies will keep deferring drilling of new wells, hurting prospects for future production growth as well as job growth for oil field service contractors.U.S. oil futures climbed back to near the psychological benchmark Wednesday, the most in a month, with West Texas Intermediate rising $1.49 to $39.15 as the U.S. presidential election still had no winner. Meanwhile, oil company stocks surged as Republicans appeared to remain in control of the Senate, hindering Democrats’ plans to promote clean energy. Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares gained more than 2 percent each before closing about flat for the day. Apache, whose shares climbed by more than 6 percent Wednesday before slipping slightly, lost $4 million compared with a loss of $386 million in the second quarter. Revenue increased by 52 percent to $1.1 billion from $752 million in the second quarter. The exploration and production company, which released its results after the close of markets Wednesday, attributed its improved financial results to cost-cutting measures and restarting production during the third quarter. It produced 445,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day during the quarter. Talos, an offshore driller focused in the Gulf of Mexico, lost $52 million compared with a loss of $140.6 million in the second quarter. Revenue increased by 52 percent to $135.1 million from $88.9 million in the second quarter. The company, which also released results after markets closed Wednesday, said its third-quarter financial results were challenged by the busiest hurricane season in the past 15 years. CEO Tim Duncan said the storms didn’t significantly damage its offshore platforms, but forced the company to delay projects and halt production for a total of about a month during the third quarter. Weatherford on Tuesday said it lost $174 million compared with a loss of $581 million in the second quarter. Revenue fell slightly to $807 million, down from $821 million in the second quarter. The oil-field services company, which emerged from bankruptcy in December, said it improved financial results as production resumed and after making steep cuts to operations. Weatherford laid off about 6,000 workers, or about a quarter of its global workforce, to weather the pandemic. These layoffs and other cost-cutting measures are expected to generate more than $800 million of annual savings, the company said.

Texas Oil, Gas Economy Shrinks as Drilling Activity, Jobs Decline - The Texas upstream oil and gas economy remained in contraction through the first nine months of the year, with the near-term outlook murky, according to a top state energy group. The Texas Alliance of Energy Producers (TAEP), which serves more than 3,000 members, said the Texas Petro Index (TPI) for September indicated the exploration and production (E&P) activity index declined for the 19th straight month, to 145.4 from 150.4 in August. The monthly E&P index also was down by 27.5% year/year. The TPI peaked at 213.8 in February 2019, but it has lost nearly one-third (32%) of its value since then, TAEP noted. The all-time record high was 313.9 in November 2014. “The Texas Petro Index shows that the upstream oil and gas economy in Texas was in a state of contraction for virtually all of 2019 and early 2020, even before Covid-19 came along,” said TAEP petroleum economist Karr Ingham, who created the index. “But the downturn obviously sharpened in March of this year as the rapid demand loss — coupled with a market share fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia — began to cripple oil and gas development activity in the U.S.” Of the 32% loss since the peak in early 2019, more than 23% has occurred since last February. The April TPI decline was the largest one-month fall in the history of the analysis, the petroleum economist noted. Oil prices have recovered somewhat since, but “other measures of statewide E&P activity are just now finding their Covid low points, including the rig count, drilling permits and industry employment.” The upstream industry in fact added a few jobs in September. If those job gains hold, it would be the first increase in the state’s E&P jobs since the onset of the pandemic, “and in fact the first industry employment additions since April 2019.” The most recent peak in upstream oil and gas jobs was about 228,450 in December 2018. Industry employment generally has declined steadily since then.

MPLX Expecting Slower Growth, but Permian, Marcellus Volumes Fueling Optimism -  In an ongoing effort to optimize capital spending amid the weak oil price environment, MPLX LP brought online the first segment of the Wink-to-Webster pipeline to ultimately transport more than 1 million b/d of Permian Basin crude to the Houston area. The main segment of the 650-mile pipeline was commissioned in October, and service is expected to be available for shippers by the end of the year. Additional segments are expected to be placed in service throughout 2021. Speaking Monday on the 3Q2020 earnings call, CEO Michael Hennigan said the joint venture partners in the project looked at how they “could optimize capital spending” during the final months of what has been an unprecedented year in the oil and gas industry. With the early completion of the main segment from Midland, TX, to Houston, they opted to bring that portion of the system online ahead of time. “It’s part of the optimization process. Instead of waiting for the whole thing, there is a piece of the project that could start up sooner,” Hennigan said. There was barely a mention of another Permian takeaway project, the Whistler natural gas pipeline that would transport 2 Bcf/d. However, management indicated Whistler is on track to start up in the second half of next year. More than 90% of the project is committed with MVCs. West Texas has been one of the bright spots for MPLX in the gathering and processing (G&P) segment. The midstreamer indicated that West Texas was one of only two regions that reported higher G&P volumes in the third quarter. Gathered volumes in the basin rose 3% year/year. The Marcellus Shale also was a source of growth for MPLX. Gathered volumes averaged 1.3 Bcf/d in the third quarter, also up 3% year/year. Processing volumes increased 8% year/year to a record 5.7 Bcf/d. Fractionated volumes jumped 10% to 477,000 b/d as the Hopedale 5 fractionator began operations in the quarter. This drove total fractionated volumes to an average 567,000 b/d, up 4% over 3Q2019. Despite the pressure on commodity prices, MPLX management remains optimistic in the outlook for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) demand and price recovery. CFO Pamela Beall said the recent recovery in futures prices is “beneficial” for MPLX’s natural gas and NGL producer customers, “as they can take advantage of hedging opportunities and realize a positive impact on operating results, as well as their borrowing base redetermination.”

 Republican Jim Wright leads Texas Railroad Commission race - Republican Jim Wright had a solid lead over Democrat Chrysta Castañeda early Wednesday morning in the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, according to unofficial results from Decision Desk HQ.Wright was ahead of Castañeda, 53.4% to 43.2%, with an estimated 87.3% of votes counted. Libertarian candidate Matt Sterett had 2.2%, and Green Party candidate Katija "Kat" Gruene had 1.2%.Castañeda conceded Wednesday morning and said she was "grateful to the millions of Texans who turned out and voted for a cleaner, healthier Texas" in a written statement on Twitter."Our movement is about more than just this election, so even though we may not have won this round, we have made a tremendous impact," Castañeda said.The Railroad Commission of Texas regulates the state's massive oil and gas industry, and its elected, three-member board has been entirely Republican for at least 25 years. No Democrat has been elected to any statewide seat in Texas since 1994.But this year, with attention on Texas races up and down the ballot, a virtually unknown Republican candidate and big-time donations to the Democratic nominee,Democrats thought they had a shot.Wright, who owns an oilfield waste services company, shockingly defeated the incumbent railroad commissioner, Ryan Sitton, in the March primary. Sitton, elected in 2014, raised significantly more money and had the support of top state leaders including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and both of the state’s Republican U.S. senators.

The Energy 202: The oil industry thinks it can work with Biden, despite call for 'transition' away from it -  Joe Biden said he wanted a “transition” away from the oil industry. But the oil industry itself thinks it can still work with the Democratic nominee should he win the White House in today's election.  There is a lot that the American Petroleum Institute, Washington's biggest lobbying group for the U.S. oil and gas industry, does not like about the former vice president's sweeping plan for addressing climate change.  But on the eve of an election in which Biden is favored to win, Mike Sommers, the head of the trade association, says he sees room to work with a Democratic administration — even as the rise in global temperatures and the oil industry's contributions to it become a bigger concern for the party's voters.“The campaign has been pretty closed off to outside organizations like API,” Sommers said in an interview Friday.  But he added: “It'll be different if there is a Biden transition, and we would seek to engage a Biden transition team.” A former chief of staff to ex-House speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), Sommers arrived at API in 2018 from the world of GOP politics. During this and previous election cycles, the oil and gas sector donated disproportionately to Republicans. Over the past four years, President Trump has modified or rolled back dozen of environmental rules, including several affecting drilling and pipeline construction, and opened hundreds of thousands of acres to oil and gas extraction. Biden, meanwhile, has vowed to end oil and gas leasing on federal lands and to reinstate many of the regulations. Still, the oil industry sees two areas where it can work with Biden — sucking up climate-warming emissions and cooling off trade wars. Sommers hopes a Biden administration, along with Democrats in Congress, will boost tax breaks for companies that capture carbon dioxide before it reaches the air. Tax deductions enacted two years ago provide as much as $50 for each ton of the greenhouse gas captured and stored underground. Biden's $2 trillion climate plan calls for even more investment in that nascent technology.“We were encouraged by that,” Sommers said. “That's one area where I think he would see a welcome partner within the oil and gas industry.”

MPCA sidelines science in Line 3 water permitting process | MinnPost -  Interestingly,  “environmental damage” and “oil pipeline” and “water impacts” and “oil spill” were not considered by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) when issuing a draft water permit to construct the new and expanded Enbridge tar sands oil Line 3 pipeline across northern Minnesota and the Mississippi headwaters. We are four of the scientists who submitted scientific comments to the MPCA about the project’s required 401 water crossing permit, which led to this summer’s contested case hearing. In October, the administrative law judge ruled in favor of the MPCA’s draft permit. As scientists who have worked in water resources management, geology, ecosystem assessment, energy systems, and public health, we were shocked at how independent science has been largely ignored in the permit review process. We want to share what we learned with other Minnesotans, and to assert that a comprehensive scientific assessment of the Line 3 project has not yet been accomplished. We observed that:

• Independent scientists like us only had limited opportunity for input at the tail end of a long process, which included a “draft permit approval” before the public even got to view the record. By the time we were allowed to communicate our technical concerns to MPCA, it had already committed to disregarding much of the science about climate, water and land. In contrast, the record shows that Enbridge’s engineers and staff had many months of insider access to MPCA staff, with meetings and long-running email threads. That let Enbridge permeate the process and influence the terms of discussion from the very beginning, a phenomenon others have labeled “regulatory capture.”
• While MPCA staff should function as independent scientists on behalf of the public good, they cannot. Agency leaders have chosen to narrowly define the role of a regulatory agency in terms of what it can do and consider. For example, MPCA leadership decided — incorrectly, by our assessment — that they could not take into account three scientific problems that directly bear on this project: 1) the cumulative impacts that this project’s 212 stream crossings and thousands of acres of wetland crossings will have on water quality, what we described as “death by a thousand cuts”; 2) the downstream effects of oil spills, and 3) climate change. By pre-determining what science their staff could and could not pay attention to, they entered into this permitting process with one hand tied behind their back, scientifically speaking.
• Good scientific decisions take into account the collective knowledge produced by many researchers. For example, we cited 120 studies and reports in our public comment to the MPCA. By contrast, Enbridge employees and MPCA staff leaned almost exclusively on statements like “in my experience” during their testimony. The judge accepted — indeed, actively affirmed — that as being most valuable, thus dealing a deathblow to science’s power to protect the public.
• Finally, we observed that a court of law is a remarkably poor place to conduct good science. Surely this should be the last resort. But it was the only venue for participation that we independent scientists were given. Further, this contested case hearing put the burden of proof on volunteer scientists, environmental groups and tribes to prove that this project will cause harm, rather than on Enbridge and the MPCA to show that it will not.

After years of contention, Keystone XL Pipeline plans continue; Company awards $1.6 billion to American construction firms  What is ... Estimated to cost $8 billion; Scheduled to cross 316 miles of South Dakota countryside, while featuring seven “pump stations” along the way; Capable of shipping 830,000 barrels of Canadian tar sands crude oil per day; Projected to create or support more than 60,000 jobs; Expected to generate more than $1.3 billion in annual earnings for the operator once it is up and running; and Continuing to be the source for legal disputes and environmental concerns, just as it has for more than a decade? Why, it’s TC Energy’s Keystone XL Pipeline, of course. On Wednesday, officials with the firm once known as TransCanada announced they had awarded more than $1.6 billion to six American contractors to work on the pipeline next year. Officials said they will eventually “employ more than 11,000 Americans in 2021,” with about 8,000 of these jobs expected to be “union.” “The awarding of 2021 U.S. construction contracts shows the continued momentum behind Keystone XL. The dedicated members of the Operating Engineers are eager and ready to build this critical piece of modern North American energy infrastructure to the highest quality standards,” said James T. Callahan, General President of the International Union of Operating Engineers. “The 8,000 American union jobs that come with 2021 construction is welcome news and irreplaceable as the U.S. continues our economic recovery.” The companies awarded contracts to work on the pipeline next year include: Barnard Pipeline (Bozeman, Montana); Associated Pipeline (Houston, Texas); Michels (Brownsville, Wisconsin); Precision Pipeline (Eau Claire, Wisconsin); Price Gregory International (Katy, Texas); and U.S. Pipeline (Houston, Texas). “With construction activities well underway in both the U.S. and Canada, Keystone XL is already playing a critical role in contributing to North America’s economic recovery,” project President Richard Prior said. “The selection of our U.S. construction contractors for 2021 is an important next step in employing thousands more American union workers and delivering tangible benefits to local communities and businesses.”

Keystone pipeline developer plans to sue to get construction permit in Nebraska county - The developer of the Keystone XL pipeline is planning to go to court to obtain a construction permit from a rural Nebraska county. A company spokeswoman made the comment after the five-member Holt County Board of Adjustment voted Thursday afternoon to deny a permit to TC Energy, formerly TransCanada, until the pipeline company agreed to comply with 19 conditions. The conditions included the establishment of an escrow account to cover any clean-up costs from possible future pipeline leaks and pay for the removal of the pipeline and reclamation of the land. The board also wanted TC Energy to bypass any fields that had underground drainage tiles and provide additional tests to detect any slow leaks from the crude oil pipeline. Robynn Tysver, a spokeswoman for TC Energy, said the company planned to go to court to obtain a pipeline construction permit, “which will unfortunately cost the county significant time and resources.” Meaningful journalism isn't free. Subscribe to The World-Herald for $3 for your first 3 months Meaningful journalism isn't free. Subscribe to The World-Herald for $3 for your first 3 months “A vote in our favor would have cleared the way for our crews to improve many of the county’s roads, as well as fund a large portion of the cost to replace the Stuart-Naper Bridge,” Tysver said. The vote Thursday was the latest development in TC Energy’s attempt to comply with zoning rules in the north-central Nebraska county. The county’s planning board and board of supervisors had previously denied a permit to TC Energy, stating that they wanted to wait until eminent domain proceedings were completed and until the company could identify where the pipeline might impact underground drainage tiles in fields. The county Board of Adjustment, which handles appeals of such matters, held a public hearing last week in O’Neill on the issue and then postponed a decision until the meeting on Thursday. Last week, an attorney for TC Energy testified that all legal proceedings had been completed but that some landowners had refused to disclose where drainage tiles were located. Opponents of the pipeline, meanwhile, urged the Board of Adjustment to reject the permit.

 Colorado in Landmark Rule Moves to End Routine Flaring, Venting -Colorado would become the first state in the contiguous U.S. to put an end to the practice of routine flaring and venting of natural gas at drilling sites, under a rule change given preliminary approval Thursday.  The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission’s 5-0 vote in favor of the proposed changes under Rule 903, which bans routine flaring and venting at oil and gas sites, would help to mitigate climate change, ensure groundwater is safe to drink, and protect soil resources that support healthy crops and vegetation, Julie Murphy, director of the commission, said in a statement.

Judge dismisses defamation claim by Dakota Access protester (AP) — A federal judge has dismissed part of a lawsuit by a New York City woman who was severely injured in an explosion while protesting the Dakota Access oil pipeline in North Dakota four years ago. In a 54-page ruling issued Thursday, U.S. District Judge Daniel Traynor dismissed claims of defamation against law enforcement officials who made public statements blaming the woman for her own injury. Sophia Wilansky, who was 21 at the time, suffered an arm injury in a violent November 2016 clash between protesters and police during the unsuccessful months-long protest in southern North Dakota against the pipeline. Protesters allege the blast was caused by a concussion grenade thrown by officers, but law enforcement said it was caused by a propane canister that protesters rigged to explode. Wilansky’s lawsuit filed two years ago also seeks millions of dollars for alleged excessive force, assault, negligence and emotional distress. Those parts of the lawsuit are still pending. Traynor, who is based in Bismarck, sided with government attorneys who argued statements about news events released to the public by law officers as part of their official duties are entitled to immunity. Government lawyers also argued that Wilansky’s father, Wayne, had given interviews to the news media giving her side of the story.

PIPELINES: NEPA fight over Dakota Access reaches D.C. Circuit -- Wednesday, November 4, 2020 -- A federal appeals court today will wade into a yearslong dispute led by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe over the fate of the contentious Dakota Access pipeline.

Judges hear appeal on Dakota Access Pipeline permit, study - The dispute over the Dakota Access Pipeline reached a panel of appellate judges Wednesday, with a federal agency and the operator making their case as to why the line should forgo a lengthy environmental review and why a key permit should be reinstated.The Standing Rock Sioux and other tribes fighting the pipeline sought to keep in place part of a lower-court ruling that rescinded the pipeline’s easement for its Missouri River crossing just upstream of the Standing Rock Reservation, as well as another ruling ordering the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to complete a thorough Environmental Impact Statement.The tribes fear a spill into the river would pollute their water supply. Corps attorney James Maysonett opened the hearing saying that the lower court “misapplied the law by ignoring the low risk of a spill.”The three judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit who listened to the case questioned him on numerous parts of the Corps’ argument, including the agency's interpretation of pipeline operator Energy Transfer’s safety record. They referenced data for a subsidiary, Sunoco, showing that the company had 1.42 accidents per 1,000 miles of pipeline in 2019. That falls above a 2017 national industry standard of 0.848 accidents per 1,000 miles. Maysonett suggested that if the judges thought the agency needed to further analyze the company’s safety history, they could do so simply by directing the Corps to provide that information. “If that’s a critical issue, I think the answer to that is not to compel the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement but to remand that question to the Corps to consider why they did or didn’t consider that and why it does or does not matter,” he said.

 Environment ministry investigating, cleaning up oil spill - The Environmental Protection Ministry said Friday that it was investigating an oil spill from the Trans-Israel pipeline some three kilometers from the Ashkelon coast, as clear-up efforts began. “A local leak of light crude oil estimated to be around several cubic meters was discovered at the site, which occurred due to a malfunction in the emergency disconnection mechanism in the pipeline,” the ministry said in a statement. “The Trans-Israel pipeline sealed the pipe and began treating the spill by spraying a substance designed to disperse and dissolve the oil in the sea,” the statement said.  TankerTrackers.com said the leak seemed to have happened after the hose decoupled from the pipeline following the delivery of 600,000 barrels of Russian crude oil via tanker. The ministry said it had opened an investigation into the leak, adding that it will “take all measures to prevent similar cases.” Additionally, as a precaution, the Ministry of Health has instructed the desalination facility in Ashkelon to disable the plant until clean-up efforts are completed. The spill comes after state prosecutors announced on Tuesday that the state-owned Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC), which owns the Trans-Israel pipeline, along with five current and former senior executives at the company, could stand trial, pending a hearing, over its alleged role in an oil spill that devastated a nature reserve in southern Israel in 2014. The individuals involved in the case are suspected of “committing large-scale environmental offenses” as well as bearing responsibility for the resulting pollution from the oil spill, considered the worst ecological disaster in Israel’s history.  According to the Environmental Protection Ministry, some 5 million liters of crude oil were spilled when a pipeline belonging to EAPC ruptured, causing significant environmental damage to the Arava desert and Evrona Nature Reserve.  According to the Tuesday statement released by the ministry, during work to relocate a pipe on December 3, 2014, there was an engineering fault that caused the pipe to rupture, precipitating the oil spill, which caused some NIS 100 million in damage.  The statement said that it was suspected the accident was mainly due to faulty implementation of EAPC’s own regulations, including the failure to draw up a detailed plan for the work and a lack of coordination between the relevant departments in the company. Over 80 people were treated for medical problems on both sides of the Israel-Jordan border following the spill, as crude oil flooded the Route 90 highway leading into Eilat. The vast majority of those initially affected were in Jordan.

 Pantai Cermin pollution caused by ship engine oil - The pollution off Pantai Cermin in Port Dickson was caused by the engine oil of a vessel. Negeri Sembilan Health, Environment, Cooperatives and Consumerism Committee chairman S. Veerapan said sample analysis results of the black semi-solid liquid collected in the affected area were obtained on Oct 23. “We have submitted the results to the Marine Department (JLM) to ascertain the source (ship). “The department is still investigating, but the substance has been identified as ship engine oil,” he told reporters here today. He said the Department of Environment was also investigating the case under Section 34B (1) (a) of the Environmental Quality Act 1974. On Oct 12, a two-kilometre stretch along Pantai Cermin was found to be polluted by an oil spill, and the incident caught the attention of Environment and Water Minister Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man who inspected the location the next day.

Oil spill in Misamis Oriental town probed —The cleanup of an oil spill that ravaged the coasts of a village in a town in Misamis Oriental province is almost done but the search for its culprit has just begun. Sabas Tagarda Jr., chief of Lower Jasaan village in Jasaan town, said that as of Friday, a big part of the black substance floating in the coasts was taken out although it might take a few more days to have these totally cleaned. Volunteers from the village and workers from the nearby ship building and repair firm Philippine Iron Construction and Marine Works Inc. (PICMWI) are doing the cleanup. The oil spill was first discovered by fishermen on Monday, preventing them from setting sail. It has spread to an estimated 5-hectare stretch of the municipal waters. As of Tuesday, the spill was already contained but Tagarda lamented that it had damaged the stretch of newly planted mangrove species in the village’s coast. Petty Officer 2nd Class Ronald Moncayo, acting chief of the Philippine Coast Guard’s Marine Environmental Protection Force in Misamis Oriental, said the substance that was discharged was bilge oil that accumulates at a ship’s engine room. Moncayo added that they were still finding out how the oil from the bilge, which is located on the bottom part of a vessel, was discharged to the sea. “Any of the more than 20 ships that are docked at the PICMWI shipyard could be responsible,” he said. Among those docked at the shipyard are tugboats, passenger vessels and cargo ships. As of Wednesday, Moncayo said more than 200 liters of the oil were retrieved.

 Mauritius oil spill clean-up likely to be completed by January - The clean-up of a massive oil spill in August from a vessel off Mauritius will likely be mostly completed by January, the bulk carrier’s owner, Japan’s Nagashiki Shipping, said on Thursday. Of the roughly 1,000 tonnes that spilled from the Panamanian-flagged MV Wakashio, all of the oil that had been floating in the ocean had been recovered, Nagashiki Shipping said in a statement. Work to remove the oil along approximately 30 km (18.6 miles) of coastline was proceeding smoothly and would likely be completed by January, it said. The vessel, chartered by Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd , ran aground on a reef in Mauritius on July 25 and began leaking oil on Aug. 6. The spilt oil had spread over a vast area of endangered corals, affecting fish and other marine life in what some scientists have called the Indian Ocean island’s worst ecological disaster. Nagashiki Shipping also said the planned removal of the rear portion of the vessel would begin in late December and last several months. The front part was scuttled in August as instructed by local authorities.

Oil Spill again pollutes Okpoama communities in Bayelsa- Another oil leak, the third in six months, has discharged a yet-to-be-ascertained volume of crude oil polluting the Okpoama community and its environs in Brass Local Government Area of Bayelsa. The leak reportedly occurred on Oct. 28 on the 50-year-old Ogoda-Brass crude pipeline belonging to the Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) near the oil firm’s crude export terminal. Chief Inikio Sele-D, Chairman of Okpoama Kingdom Chiefs’ Council, had earlier the told News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that two oil leaks were reported on May 12 and on Oct 8. Mr Tarinyo Akono, former Chairman of the Bayelsa State Council of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) who hails from Okpoama also told NAN on Monday in Yenagoa that frequent spills from Agip’s facilities had wrought untold hardship on the fishing communities. 

Russian oil bosses debate extending output curbs into 2021: sources (Reuters) - Top managers of Russian oil companies and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Monday discussed a possible extension of oil output restrictions into the first quarter of 2021, two industry sources said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia imposed a record oil output cut in April to support prices as the COVID-19 pandemic shrank demand. They are considering further steps as the global number of coronavirus cases is rising sharply. Russian oil companies and Novak discussed three options on Monday, a source familiar with the talks told Reuters on condition of anonymity. One of the options was to extend the current output curbs into the first quarter of 2021, the source said. The two other options were to increase oil output in January, as planned, or to cut output even further. Another industry source said a three-month extension of the agreement by OPEC+, as the grouping of OPEC and allied producers is named, was possible because of concern about the impact of the second wave of the pandemic. Russian oil and gas condensate output rose to 9.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from 9.93 million bpd a month earlier, indicating Russia’s output was close to its quota or slightly above it. Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin, who declined to comment on future OPEC+ decisions, said on Monday the global oil market would depend on how countries act to the ongoing pandemic. Russia has said it will not impose a new lockdown despite reporting a record rise in infections, while Europe has turned to wide-scale restrictions. The sources said the final oil output decision will be made by President Vladimir Putin, who last month did not rule out extending deep oil cuts for longer if market conditions warranted.

Oil reverses steep loss to gain nearly 3% despite rising Covid-19 cases - Oil prices gained more than 2% Monday, shaking off earlier losses, as the United States heads into a contentious U.S. presidential election. The oil market has been under pressure in recent days, hit by concerns about weaker fuel demand as several European countries went into lockdown to curb the coronavirus. New infections spiked in the United States as well. Brent crude rose $1.14, or 3%, to trade at $39.08 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate settled $1.02, or 2.8%, higher at $36.81 per barrel. Both contracts fell more than $2 earlier in the session. Oil pared some losses after Japan's export orders grew for the first time in two years and China's factory activity rose to its highest in nearly a decade in October. Further, U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in October, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years. U.S. stock indexes, which energy futures at times track with, rose on Monday. Analysts said the election outcome most likely to shake equity markets in the near-term would be if there is no clear winner on Tuesday night, as several states remain where votes will need to be counted. "The concerns over oil supply and demand fundamentals ... are going to play second fiddle to the U.S. presidential election and to how risk markets will react to the outcome," Countries across Europe have reimposed lockdown measures to try to slow COVID-19 infection rates that have accelerated over the past month. Global oil trading companies and analysts expect further demand destruction because of the resurgence of virus cases, though estimates differ. Vitol sees winter demand at 96 million barrels per day (bpd) while Trafigura expects demand to drop to 92 million bpd or lower. Rystad Energy sees demand peaking in 2028, instead of in 2030, and sees a slower recovery next year. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use," said Rystad Energy's Artyom Tchen. Libyan supply stands at about 800,000 bpd, up more than 100,000 bpd from a few days ago, a Libyan source told Reuters on Saturday. That, and the recent rebound in U.S. operating rigs, is worrying investors concerned about supply again outpacing demand. Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose for a fourth month in October, a Reuters survey found. OPEC and allies including Russia are cutting output by about 7.7 million bpd to support prices. This OPEC+ group is scheduled to hold a policy meeting on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, with some analysts expecting a postponement of plans to ramp up output by 2 million bpd from January.

Oil rises ahead of US elections and as Europe locks down - Oil prices gained nearly 3 percent on Monday, paring earlier losses, on the eve of what is almost certain to be a contentious presidential election in the United States and as major economies in Europe go back into lockdown in an effort to stem rising coronavirus infections. Global benchmark Brent crude for January delivery rose $1.03 or 2.7 percent to settle at $38.97 a barrel on Monday, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December delivery rose $1.02 or nearly 3 percent to settle at $36.81 a barrel. Both contracts fell earlier in the session after a sharp selloff last week when Brent fell 12 percent to below $38 a barrel – exiting its five-month trading range. But reports that Russia is considering delaying its planned loosening of the taps in January helped lift prices later in the session on Monday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, have cut output by about 7.7 million bpd to prop up sliding oil prices. Goldman analysts forecast a delay in plans to ramp up output in January. The next OPEC+ meeting kicks off on November 30. Oil markets have been under pressure in recent days as business and travel-sapping lockdowns return to Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Also adding pressure on prices, Libya substantially upped its oil production in recent days. “With plenty to worry about in the oil market – lockdowns, Libya, Iran, shale resilience – such a move lower is not surprising,” Goldman Sachs crude analysts wrote in a Sunday note. “This is consistent with our ‘patient bulls’ view that the second stage of the market rebalancing – the ‘cyclical recovery’ – would take time [and] require patience.” A Rystad Energy analysis expects Libya’s crude oil output to average approximately 750,000 bpd in November and climb to 1 million bpd in February 2021 Healthy readings on global factory activity also helped buoy oil prices on Monday. Japan’s export orders saw a boost and China’s factory activity rose to its highest level in nearly 10 years in October. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index also increased more than expected in October with spikes in production, new orders, and employment components.

Oil rises nearly 3% as U.S. presidential election looms - (Reuters) - Oil prices gained nearly 3% on Monday, rebounding from several day of losses built on concerns of rising coronavirus cases, one day before the end of U.S. presidential election voting. The oil market has been under pressure, due to concerns about weaker fuel demand as several European countries restarted lockdowns to curb the coronavirus. Infections recently hit a daily record in the United States as well, and major oil trading merchants believe it could stall out the recovery in demand. Brent crude LCOc1 gained $1.03, or 2.7%, to settle at $38.97 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 ended $1.02, or 2.9%, higher at $36.81 a barrel. Both contracts fell more than $2 earlier in the session, but rebounded strong factory data in Asia and the United States. U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in October, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years. U.S. stock indexes, which energy futures at times track with, rose on Monday. Analysts said the election outcome most likely to shake equity markets in the near-term would be if there is no clear winner on Tuesday night, as several states remain where votes will need to be counted. “The concerns over oil supply and demand fundamentals ... are going to play second fiddle to the U.S. presidential election and to how risk markets will react to the outcome,” said BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian. Global oil trading companies and analysts expect further demand destruction because of the resurgence of virus cases. Countries across Europe have reimposed lockdown measures to try to slow COVID-19 infection rates that have accelerated over the past month.

Oil rises 2% but traders brace for wild ride on U.S. Election Day -(Reuters) - Oil prices rose 2% on Tuesday, advancing with other financial markets on U.S. Election Day although traders were bracing for volatility depending on the voting results and as surging coronavirus cases around the world fed worries about fuel demand. Brent futures rose 74 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $39.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 85 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $37.66. The oil price moves came ahead of data expected to show U.S. crude stockpiles rose 900,000 barrels last week after gaining 4.3 million barrels in the prior week. The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, will release its inventory report later Tuesday, ahead of government data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. “The election is dominating markets today. Crude oil is up ... The general feeling seems to be that the final outcome could come as early as tomorrow,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, noting a Democratic sweep could lead to a super-sized stimulus package that would be positive for oil. Major U.S. stock market indices traded higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.8%. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, dipped 0.6% against a basket of currencies .DXY as risk appetite grew on bets that Biden will win A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which traders said was helping to boost crude prices.

Oil Prices Soar On Major Crude Draw -The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a major draw in crude oil inventories of 8.01 million barrels for the week ending October 30.Analysts had predicted an inventory build of 890,000 barrels.In the previous week, the API reported a surprise build in oil inventories of 4.577-million barrels, after analysts had predicted a draw of 1.11 million barrels.Oil prices were trading up on Tuesday afternoon before the API’s data release in the runup to the U.S. election. Bearish factors this week include a ramp-up of oil production in OPEC producer Libya, the resolution to the latest storm that has disrupted oil and gas production on the U.S. Gulf Coast over the last week, and additional lockdowns in Europe.In the runup to Tuesday’s data release, at 2:07 p.m. EDT, WTI had risen by $0.97 (+2.64%) to $37.77, down roughly $2 per barrel on the week. The Brent crude benchmark had risen on the day by $0.89 at that time (+2.28%) to $39.86—down roughly $1.50 on the week.Oil production in the United States rose last week, closing the gap between production this week and the all-time high this year down to 2.0 million barrels per day. U.S. oil production currently sits at 11.1 million bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration.The API reported a surprise build in gasoline inventories of 2.45-million barrels of gasoline for the week ending October 27—compared to the previous week’s 2.252-million-barrel build. Analysts had expected an 871,000-barrel draw for the week.Distillate inventories were down by 577,000 barrels for the week, compared to last week’s 5.333-million-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories rose by 981,000 barrels.At 4:54 pm EDT, the WTI benchmark was trading at $38.10 while Brent crude was trading at $40.11.

WTI Holds Gains After Big Crude Draw, Gasoline Demand Slides -- After some notable volatility overnight, oil prices are higher ahead of this morning's official inventory data as OPEC+ talks on delaying a January oil-output increase gathered momentum. This week's inventory and production data will be heavily influenced by Hurricane Zeta which caused the shut-in of around 85% of Gulf crude production. API:

• Crude -8.01mm (-600k exp)
• Cushing +981k
• Gasoline +2.45mm (-1.1mm exp)
• Distillates -577k (-2.4mm exp)

DOE

• Crude -7.998mm (-600k exp)
• Cushing +936k
• Gasoline +1.541mm (-1.1mm exp)
• Distillates -1.584mm (-2.4mm exp)

After last week's surprise build and API's surprise draw, analysts expected a modest draw in official crude stocks, but instead got a 8mm barrel draw (same as API) - the most since August... Source: Bloomberg  Gasoline supplied (implied demand) seems to be stubbornly stuck around 10% below average, and mobility data is not showing any signs of improvement.  Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza:Storms coming through the Gulf of Mexico -- temporarily crimping volume and flows -- can offer intermittent aid for balances amid rising concerns about demand weakness and a tenuous economic backdrop. Oil production is recovering to above 11 million barrels a day due to a rebound in completion crews, while a crude-export increase may be temporary and storage levels could actually be rising, with Cushing about 79% full.Given Hurricane Zeta's impact, last week's production data is likely to be fnorked as it dropped 600k b/d...

Oil climbs as U.S. stockpiles shrink, but election uncertainty overshadows market - Oil prices rose around 2% on Wednesday after industry data showed crude inventories in the United States fell sharply, but trading was choppy as the outcome of the U.S. presidential election remained unclear. West Texas Intermediate was up 90 cents, or 2.4%, at $38.57 a barrel, after trading in a nearly $1 range. Brent crude was up 98 cents, or 2.5%, at $40.69, after trading between $39.85 and $40.70. Oil prices fell more than 10% last week as global coronavirus cases soared and more restrictions on movement hit demand prospects. U.S. oil has nearly recouped those losses in three days of gains this week in the run-up to the election. "People with active positions in the market are trading very very nimbly because the (election) backdrop is a little uncertain," said Virendra Chauhan, oil analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore. Prices in the hours and days ahead are "going to be more financial-flow driven rather than fundamentally driven," he added. U.S. crude oil stocks fell sharply last week while gasoline inventories rose, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Crude stockpiles fell by 8 million barrels last week to about 487 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. That contrasted with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an increase of 890,000 barrels. More lockdowns could put a cap on oil price gains as Italy, Norway and Hungary tightened Covid-19 restrictions, following the UK, France and other countries. "Politics aside, there are European demand uncertainties given the broader extensions of lockdowns," Chauhan said, though he noted that in Asia demand for oil and its products is returning. Supporting prices, OPEC member Algeria backed deferring a planned increase in OPEC+ oil output from January and Russia's energy minister raised the prospect with the country's oil producers.

Oil rises 4% after Trump falsely claims victory in tight U.S. election (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Wednesday after President Donald Trump falsely claimed victory in a tight U.S. election with millions of votes still to be counted and after data showed a large decline in U.S. crude inventories.A victory by Trump is viewed as bullish for oil because of sanctions on Iran and his support for Saudi-led oil production cuts to support prices. A contested result and prolonged uncertainty is seen as the most bearish outcome for oil and markets in general, while a win for Joe Biden would be seen as bearish to neutral because of his support for green policies and softer stance on Iran. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 ended the session up $1.49, or 4%, at $39.15 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 settled up $1.52, or 3.8%, at $41.23 a barrel. Both benchmarks extended gains to session highs after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell 8 million barrels last week as Hurricane Zeta forced production declines in the Gulf of Mexico during the period. U.S. weekly crude oil exports fell by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to about 2.3 million bpd last week, the biggest drop since January, and production dropped 600,000 bpd to 10.5 million bpd. Trump falsely claimed to have won after his Democratic challenger Biden said he was confident of winning a contest that will not be resolved until a handful of states finish vote counts in the next hours or days. “Perhaps the biggest conclusion to be drawn at this stage is that there is only a small likelihood that existing oil & gas tax incentives will be removed in the U.S. – even if Biden emerges as the winner – given the narrow margin of victory and a probable Republic majority in the U.S. Senate,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale Research at Rystad Energy.

Oil drops as U.S. election uncertainty dominates markets - Oil prices fell on Thursday as Democrat Joe Biden edged closer to the White House in a nail-biting U.S. presidential election, though doubts remain over further huge stimulus to bolster the ecomony in the face of the coronavirus crisis. Brent crude fell 20 cents, or 0.4%, to $41.03 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 30 cents, or 0.7%, at $38.85. Both contracts had jumped about 4% on Wednesday. Biden predicted victory over President Donald Trump after winning two critical U.S. states while the Republican incumbent alleged fraud, filed lawsuits and demanded recounts in a bitter contest that has yet to be decided. A drawn-out court battle over the results could cause additional uncertainty in the market, spawning further sell-offs within risky asset classes. "A Trump win will likely to be bullish for oil, at least more bullish than under a Biden administration," said Tamas Varga at oil brokerage PVM. "Joe Biden will rejoin (the Paris climate agreement). He would also soften the U.S. stance on Iran, consequently global oil supply could rise." Current vote counting and trends suggest the Republicans are poised to retain control of the U.S. Senate, while the Democrats will hold a slimmed majority in the House of Representatives. A divided Congress could hamper Biden's plans on climate change, economic stimulus and the easing of sanctions on oil producer Iran. Oil prices had surged on Wednesday on growing expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together called OPEC+, would hold off on bringing back 2 million bpd of supply in January, given demand has been sapped by new COVID-19 lockdowns. "The volatility in oil will remain because of its sensitivity to the U.S. dollar,"

Oil falls amid European lockdowns, U.S. election uncertainty (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday, weighed down by the steady rise in coronavirus infections and as the outcome of the U.S. presidential election had still not been settled. Brent crude settled down 30 cents, or 0.7%, at $40.93 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was down 36 cents, or 0.9%, at $38.79. Both contracts jumped about 4% on Wednesday. The European Union’s executive commission lowered its economic forecast, adding that said the economy would not rebound to pre-virus levels until 2023. “Despite some surprisingly bullish crude data this week, the oil market will still need to contend with major demand uncertainties related to COVID-19,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, referring to a 8 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stockpiles. Italy posted its highest one day of infections on Thursday, while the United States surpassed 100,000 infections in a day last week, a record. The Bank of England increased its bond-buying stimulus as it prepared for economic damage from new coronavirus lockdowns and the looming risk of Brexit. The bank said Britain’s economy was set to shrink a record 11% over the course of 2020 overall. “There’s fatigue from the market on the renewed lockdown and the efforts and the damage to be done to the economy,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. The lockdowns in Europe will remove 1.5 million barrels per day of demand, Kilduff added.

Oil falls 4% as U.S. vote count continues, coronavirus cases rise (Reuters) - Oil settled below $40 a barrel on Friday as rising global coronavirus cases stoked fears about lackluster demand and as drawn-out vote counting in the U.S. presidential election kept markets on edge. France reported record cases, intensifying concerns that additional lockdowns in Europe could weigh on demand. In the U.S. election, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden took the lead over President Donald Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, edging closer to winning the White House as a handful of states continue to count votes. Three days after polls closed, Biden has a 253 to 214 lead in the state-by-state Electoral College vote that determines the winner, according to Edison Research. Winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would put the former vice president over the 270 he needs to win. Brent crude settled down $1.48, or 3.62%, at $39.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 dropped $1.65, or 4.25% to $37.14 a barrel. Still, both contracts gained on the week with Brent up 5.8%, and U.S. crude rising 4.3%. Diminishing prospects of a large U.S. stimulus package were also weighing on the market. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Friday that economic statistics including a 1 percentage point drop in the U.S. unemployment rate showed that Congress should enact a smaller coronavirus stimulus package that is highly targeted at the effects of the pandemic. “Crude oil is very sensitive to the stimulus expectations, which just took a hit for the worse,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “The coronavirus situation is as negative a demand indicator as you can get,” he said.

Oil Prices Stumble Friday But Up for the Week - -- Oil pared its weekly gain as a resurgent pandemic raised the risk of further demand destruction, while the market awaits the outcome of a tightly contested U.S. election. Futures in New York dropped 4.3% on Friday, the largest one-day decline in more than a week. Increasing expectations over OPEC+ delaying its planned output increase in January and a post-election rally in equities helped crude prices with a strong start to the week. But a string of renewed lockdowns in Europe and record case counts in the U.S. kept any upward price momentum in check. Conflicting themes have emerged over what the prospect of a divided government means for the oil market with Democrat Joe Biden appearing to be on the brink of victory in the U.S. presidential race. A split Congress reduces the likelihood of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts being rolled back under a Biden presidency, but also means any virus aid package may be thin and only come after a drawn out negotiation process. “The explosion in Covid-19 is a serious demand destruction event” for oil, Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities, said in a note. “Crude oil is looking exhausted and may be vulnerable to a pullback.” The new surge in coronavirus cases has presented a fresh threat to oil’s fragile demand recovery, with governments rethinking reopening plans to curb the spread of Covid-19. Meanwhile, the decision by Royal Dutch Shell Plc to shut its Convent refinery in south Louisiana as it continues to seek a buyer adds to a string of refinery closures in the wake of anemic demand. “Sentiment around oil is not very good right now,” said Bill O’Grady, executive vice president at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “There are worries about oversupply and under demand, and the surge in the virus count both in the United States and Europe is raising concerns.” Prices West Texas Intermediate for December delivery fell $1.65 to end the session at $37.14 a barrel. The benchmark rose 3.8% over the week Brent for January settlement lost $1.48 to end the session at $39.45 a barrel. The benchmark gained 5.3% this week Biden is nearing victory after taking the lead in Pennsylvania over Trump, with expectations that a new administration could attempt to impact a variety of U.S. energy policy areas, such as fracking and relations with Iran. Still, uncertainty lingers as Trump’s campaign promises legal challenges that could draw out results, though its lawsuits to challenge the count have gained little traction. Meanwhile, as the market continues to wrestle with abundant stockpiles amid a pandemic-induced demand slump, the world’s largest independent provider of oil storage said it has no space for hire at key fuel trading locations. Royal Vopak NV’s total occupancy rate was the highest its been for any three-month period since the start of 2019.

Aramco's Q3 Profit Slumps 45%. -Aramco reported a net profit of $11.8 billion for the third quarter of 2020, down by 44.6 percent on the year as low oil prices continued to bite into its financial performance.The company also said it had free cash flow of $12.4 billion at the end of the three-month period and declared a dividend of $18.75 billion for the quarter.For the first nine months of the year, the hit from low oil prices and depressed demand was stronger. Net profit was down by close to 49 percent to $35.015 billion.In oil production, the Saudi major reported an average daily of 9.2 million bpd for the first nine months of the year as it continued capping output in compliance with the OPEC+ agreement.Earlier this year, Aramco declared an annual dividend of $75 billion. That amount, however, will not be sufficient to cover the Saudi budget deficit, Moody’s said in a report last month. Now, with oil prices still low and likely to go lower still if the surge in Covid-19 cases continues in Europe and the United States, Aramco’s earnings will take a bigger hit.This means that the government in Riyadh will not be able to plug the budget hole with the Aramco dividend as it has done previously.“The government is unlikely to be able to repeat the maneuver beyond 2021,” Moody’s said in the report. Aramco will have its own capital expenditure needs and its commitment to buy petrochemicals giant SABIC to look after, according to the ratings agency.Despite the challenging environment, Aramco expects that oil supply will tighten over the next year as demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels. China is seen as the source of most of the rebound, supported by other Asian countries.For the immediate future, however, Aramco is much less bullish. The company saidlast week that oil demand was currently too weak for OPEC+ to go ahead with its plan to relax production cuts by another 2 million bpd from next January

 Saudi Aramco's net profit drops 45% in the third quarter on weak oil demand — Saudi Aramco's net profit fell 44.6% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the same period last year, reflecting continued damage to oil demand and prices from the global coronavirus pandemic. Net profit dropped to 44.21 billion riyals ($11.8 billion) this quarter from 79.84 billion riyals in the third quarter of 2019. The figure is in line with analyst estimates, revealing a recovery from the historic revenue drop in the second quarter that saw profits plummet to 24.75 billion riyals. The Saudi kingdom's state oil company saw lower crude oil prices and volumes sold, as well as weaker refining and chemicals margins, the company said in its release Tuesday. It also saw a decrease in oil production royalties, a drop in the royalty rate from 20% to 15%, and lower income taxes and zakat (Islamic taxes). The national producer has maintained its third-quarter dividend of $18.75 billion, to be paid in the fourth quarter. Its second-quarter dividend was declared at the same level in August, also to be paid in the following quarter. Aramco's first quarter dividend was paid in the second quarter. Aramco listed 1.5% of its shares locally on the Saudi Tadawul last year, which analysts say has reshaped many of the company's priorities, including that of its commitment to shareholders. "Aramco has made this very strong dividend commitment to shareholders as part of the IPO," Neil Beveridge, a senior oil and gas analyst at Bernstein, told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Tuesday. "And that really was a cornerstone promise I think, for any investor that was investing in Saudi Aramco and that's something that … the company will want to sustain, along the lines that they committed to in the IPO." Aramco's stock price on the Saudi Tadawul was up just under 1% at 34.50 riyals per share within an hour of the exchange's open. Brent crude was trading at $39.55 per barrel, having dropped dramatically at the start of this week as several European countries return to lockdowns amid soaring coronavirus cases. The international oil benchmark is down more than 36% year-to-date.

How Kurdistan Is Taking Advantage Of Iraq’s Oil Crisis - Iraq is facing a desperate financial situation: obliged to pay billions of dollars in state salaries, pensions, and other disbursements whilst its ability to generate revenue to do so is severely constrained by a low oil price environment and OPEC+-mandated production quotas. Making matters worse is that the government of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in the north – the KRG – is using Baghdad’s deteriorating financial position to advance its own agenda and, by extension, the agenda of its principal state-sponsor, Russia.Baghdad had little choice earlier this year but to overshoot its OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, given that by the middle of the year its oil revenues had fallen by nearly 50 per cent, while the government still derives 90 per cent of its revenues come from crude oil sales. At the same time, the then-new Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, needed IQD12 trillion (US$10 billion) just to pay the next two months salaries of more than four million employees, retirees, state beneficiaries, and the food relief for low-income families. It was believed in Iraqi government circles that any failure to pay any of these obligations could result in the sort of widespread protests that occurred at the end of last year.The problem for Baghdad is that these payments are regular ones, the price of oil has not improved, and it was already quietly censured by OPEC+ for breaking its quota. Given Iraq’s unusually high level of economic dependence on crude oil sales, the IMF recently stated that it expects the country to see a 12.1 per cent drop in its GDP for 2020. These factors also mean that any opportunity that Iraq has to raise money in the international capital markets will come at a preclusively high price, with yields on its dollar-denominated bonds having risen to more than 10 per cent, the highest in the region. To ease the burden of adhering to the OPEC+-mandated production quotas, Baghdad had been looking to the KRG, based in Erbil, to make cuts from its own output in the semi-autonomous region. In response, the KRG last week made it clear that it would consider doing so only on two conditions. The first is that the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad pays what the KRG says it owes by dint of the long-standing ‘oil-for-budget payments deal’. The second is that this is augmented by further money that compensates the KRG for the loss of revenue from not producing the output that it was previously producing. In other words, not only would Baghdad lose revenues from not producing to its own full capacity in the south but it would have to spend more of these vastly reduced revenues on paying the north not to produce to capacity as well.

US sells oil seized from Iran to Venezuela for $40 million - The United States said Thursday that it had sold Iranian oil seized on its way to Venezuela for more than $40 million. Washington announced in August that it had confiscated 1.1 million barrels of petroleum from four tankers en route between the two countries, which are both under US sanctions. "We estimate that in excess of $40 million will be recouped by the United States related to the sale of petroleum from those four vessels," Michael Sherwin, the acting US attorney for the District of Columbia, told reporters by telephone. He said a "great portion" of it would be contributed to a US fund for victims of "state-sponsored terrorism." US courts have ordered Iran's clerical regime to pay damages over attacks, most recently in July when a judge told Tehran to pay $879.1 million over a 1996 bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 US airmen. Iran denies responsibility and states it has no intention of paying, saying the United States should instead compensate for past episodes including its support of Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War. Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves but its economy and infrastructure have collapsed to the point that it suffers blackouts and needs help from Iran, which it pays in gold. President Donald Trump has been seeking to weaken Iran regionally and to remove Venezuela's leftist leader Nicolas Maduro, who shows little sign of leaving soon.  Trump in 2018 walked away from a deal brokered by former president Barack Obama under which Iran scaled back its nuclear program drastically in return for sanctions relief.

Israeli Minister Warns Of War In Middle East If Biden Wins - Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi warns that a Biden presidency could ignite war in the Middle East, while Egypt fears Biden would aid the resurgence of Islamists in the region.  Hanegbi pointed out that Biden has indicated he will resurrect America’s nuclear agreement with Iran which was cancelled by the Trump administration.  For Israel, this would represent an existential threat to national security and drastically increase the chances of war with Tehran. “If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Hanegbi.  Meanwhile, other Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt are concerned that a Biden administration would mirror Barack Obama’s policies, which led to Islamists being empowered in the region.  Obama spearheaded the disastrous interventions in Syria and Libya which led to the rise of ISIS and the international migrant crisis.  Obama also suspended aid to Egypt after popular protests ousted Islamist President Muhammad Morsi in 2013. “Egyptians are likely to be concerned about a revival of Obama’s democracy agenda which meant actively encouraging political participation of Islamists,” reports Arab Weekly.  So in other words, if Biden wins, Americans have at least four more years of disastrous foreign interventions to look forward to.

Israel rebuked for 'biggest demolition of Palestinian homes in years' - BBC News - The United Nations has rebuked Israel for carrying out what it said was the biggest demolition of Palestinian homes in the occupied West Bank for a decade. Some 73 people, including 41 children, were made homeless when their dwellings were knocked down in the Bedouin settlement of Khirbet Humsa, in the Jordan Valley, the UN said. The Israeli military said the structures had been built illegally. But the UN called the Israeli actions a "grave breach" of international law. According to the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha), 76 structures - including homes, animal shelters, toilets and solar panels - were destroyed when Israeli bulldozers moved in late on Tuesday. Israeli authorities put the figure considerably lower, saying an "enforcement activity" had been carried out involving seven tents and eight animal pens. Footage from the scene following the demolition, released by Israeli human rights group B'Tselem, showed the area strewn with wreckage including twisted metal, sheets and cots. "This is a great injustice," resident Harb Abu al-Kabash told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. "We didn't know they were coming and we didn't prepare, and now we are facing rain." In a statement, the Israeli military body responsible for civilian affairs in the West Bank said the destroyed structures had been "built illegally in a firing zone", or military training area. Ocha said Khirbet Humsa, known as Humsa al-Bqaiaa in Arabic, was one of 38 communities fully or partially located within Israeli-designated "firing zones" and which constitute "some of the most vulnerable communities in the West Bank". It said such demolitions were "grave breaches of the Fourth Geneva Convention" - international law designed to protect civilian populations in occupied territories. Israel occupied the West Bank in the 1967 Middle East war. Under subsequent agreements, Palestinians exercise limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank, while Israel has overall control. Khirbet Humsa lies in an area outside of Palestinian control.

French airstrikes kill over 50 Qaeda-linked jihadists in Mali - The French government said Monday its forces had killed more than 50 jihadists aligned to Al-Qaeda in air strikes in central Mali.  The offensive took place on Friday in an area near the borders of Burkina Faso and Niger, where government troops are struggling to rout an Islamic insurgency, French Defence Minister Florence Parly said after meeting members of Mali's transitional government. "On October 30 in Mali, the Barkhane force conducted an operation that neutralised more than 50 jihadists and confiscated arms and material," Parly said, referring to the French-led anti-jihadist Operation Barkhane. She added that around 30 motorcycles were destroyed. Parly, who earlier met Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou and her Nigerien counterpart Issoufou Katambe before heading to Bamako, said the operation was launched after a drone detected a "very large" motorcycle caravan in the "three borders" area. When the jihadists moved under trees to try and escape surveillance, the French force sent in two Mirage jets and a drone to launch missiles, leading to the "neutralisation" of the insurgents, Parly said. Military spokesman Colonel Frederic Barbry said that "four terrorists have been captured". Explosives and a suicide vest had been found, he told a reporters in a conference call, saying that the group had been "about to attack (an army) position in the region". Barbry also said that another operation, this time targeting the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, was also underway, with a total of 3,000 soldiers. The results of the operation, launched about a month ago, would be announced in the coming days, he said. Parly said the action marked a "significant blow" to the Ansarul Islam group which she said was linked to Al-Qaeda via the GSIM alliance led by Iyad Ag Ghaly. Ghaly has emerged as a top jihadist leader in the Sahel since the death of the Qaeda commander Abdelmalek Droukdel, who was killed by French forces in Mali in June.

Ukraine, Turkey deepen military alliance in Black Sea region - Ukraine and Turkey have moved further this past month to strengthen a rapidly growing military alliance that is aimed at cornering Russia out of the Black Sea region. Meeting in Istanbul on October 16, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky publicly posed for photos while they happily signed a “goodwill” agreement between the two countries’ defense industries as well as a “military framework” agreement. Details of the agreements are not publicly known. However, it was widely reported that the deals will involve large-scale technology transfer that will aid both countries in confronting Russia in any potential war. Following the signing of the agreement, Erdogan made clear that Ukraine was quickly becoming a significant ally of Turkey in the region, stating, “Turkey sees Ukraine as a key country for the establishment (of) stability, security, peace and prosperity in the region.” The agreement is a sign of an increasingly complicated and intertwined system of military alliances in the region which threaten the world with the outbreak of a major world war. Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union by the Stalinist bureaucracy in 1991, the Black Sea region has become a focal point of the efforts of US imperialism to establish full control over the resources of the vast landmass that had previously been controlled by the USSR, and to encircle Russia. With the exception of Russia itself, every state bordering the Black Sea has been turned into a member of NATO or is working closely with the alliance. The meeting between Zelensky and Erdogan occurred amid the ongoing war between a Russian-backed Armenia and a Turkish-backed Azerbaijan over the Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Moreover, Turkey has been engaged in an increasingly heated conflict with fellow NATO member Greece over territorial and energy rights in the Aegean Sea in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is connected to the Black Sea through the Sea of Marmara. In the civil wars in Libya and Syria, Russia and Turkey are backing opposing sides. In his remarks, Erdogan explicitly took Kiev’s side against Moscow in the conflict over Crimea, a peninsula in the Black Sea. He bluntly stated, “Turkey has not recognized Crimea’s illegal annexation and it never will.” The peninsula was annexed by Russia in 2014 following a right-wing United States-backed coup that threatened to completely cut Russia’s naval forces out of the Black Sea. Crimea, which was previously a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire prior to being annexed by the Russian Empire under Catherine the Great in 1783, is home to a population of approximately 250,000 Crimean Tatars who share linguistic and cultural ties with Turks. In 2016, Erdogan made clear that he views Crimea as part of a “Greater Turkey,” stating, “Turkey cannot disregard its kinsmen in Western Thrace, Cyprus, Crimea and anywhere else.” The public summit in Ankara is the culmination of growing economic and military ties between the two countries, which have grown rapidly since the election of President Volodomyr Zelensky in April 2019.

China Takes Step Against Securitization, Consumer Borrowing With Suspension of Ant IPO – Yves Smith - The still-playing drama of the US presidential election took pride of place over a blockbuster development in China: the eleventh-hour halting of what was to have been the biggest IPO evah, the dual listing of Ant Group for over $34 billion. Even though China’s financial system is not terribly transparent, and English language reporting on China’s politics should be taken with a fistful of salt, regulators stomped on a globally high-profile company widely deemed to be one of China’s stars to send a message. And even from the other side of the world, mediated through the Anglo press, the message seems very clear: China is going to leash and collar businesses, whether banks or fintech players, that profit by giving consumers high interest rate loans and rely on securitization to shift the risk of loss on to other parties.   Ant was originally Alipay, part of Jack Ma’s Alibaba, and was spun out in 2014. It has become the largest payment processor in the world. However, Ant’s expansion into higher-profit lending is what has aroused official ire.The idea that regulators woke up a few days before the Ant IPO and blindsided the company with unexpected rules isn’t remotely credible. Yet the press is parroting Ant’s and disappointed brokers’ spin. The reality is that regulators signaled their requirements months ago (the Chinese appear to be less explicit in their public remarks than Western regulators typically are) and without a doubt informed Ant and any similarly-situated concerns of their requirements. Ma apparently thought he could defy the Chinese government. He’s learned otherwise.The Financial Times comment section confirmed this take and criticized the pink paper’s account, which mentioned but didn’t tease out the significance of Ma criticizing the government for being leery of unsecured personal lending:At the end of October, Mr Ma criticised China’s state-owned banks at a financial summit in Shanghai. He suggested the big lenders had a “pawnshop mentality” and that Ant was playing an important role in extending credit to innovative but collateral-poor companies and individuals.From the Financial Times’ peanut gallery:For those who didn’t know what happened : check the new regulation which limits Ant’s leverage and enhances consumer protection, which also limits Ant’s valuation as a “tech” company. That was the main reason Jack fired at regulators in his speech [at the end of October] – and to be honest, there was no way he didn’t know the regulation long before the listing date and the speech (gov spent months on a policy, if not longer and would consult industry leaders)! If the IPO were not halted, investors would have suffered from major losses, not to mention the high leverage (60x+) and ABS put Ant’s customers at risk. Jack fired the speech to evade regulation and made sure HE made enough money from the listing. Not investors, not Ant users. Being sarcastic is easy. Try to get clear of what REALLY happened. Now to the substance of the dispute, which led to the halt of the IPO and will require Ant to substantially restructure its business. Ant originates personal and small business loans to parties with little in the way of assets. These loans command higher interest rates than more conventional loans and from what we infer, “higher’ can mean “pretty high”.

Indian Pharma is Being Squeezed – and It’s Bad News for Drug Access in Developing Countries - India’s pharmaceutical industry is renowned for selling medicines to the world at reasonable prices, especially developing countries. This has helped Africa in its fight against HIV/Aids, for instance. Such endeavours have earned India a reputation as the “pharmacy of the world”. Now, the advantages that have enabled India to play this role are in danger of being eroded. Not only would this be bad news for India’s economy, it could make it harder for developing countries to access the medicines they need – threatening the UN Sustainable Development Goals in the process.  India is the world leader in generic medicines, which contain the same ingredients as the originator version, and go on the market after the original patent has expired. India’s top pharma firms include Cipla, Aurobindo Pharma, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.  One challenge is coming from China, which has increasingly been exporting active pharmaceutical ingredients in recent years. Indian companies have managed to turn this into an opportunity by using these ingredients to supply medicines at reasonable prices while reducing their production costs and R&D spend.  But China is also expanding into drug formulations. By our calculations, China’s global share of formulations exports trebled from 0.4% in 2009 to 1.2% in 2018, while India’s doubled over the same period from 1.5% to 3.6%. Remarkably, 36% of China’s exports are to the EU and North America, where regulations are the most stringent, compared to 19% in 2009.  Another challenge to India is wealthy countries protecting their pharma industries to ensure drug security. In August, President Trump issued an executive order that called for the elimination of drug imports, both as active ingredients and formulations. France and Germany look to be heading in a similar direction.  If the US order is strictly adhered to, it will heavily affect Indian pharma. More than half of India’s pharma sales are from exports, and by our calculations, the US has bought 37% of them over the past three years. Access to the US market is also critical for leading firms to maintain profit margins. COVID-19 underlines India’s importance to developing countries when it comes to drug access. The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccines producer, is collaborating with the World Health Organization, the COVAX facility of Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to produce and supply 100 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine at a maximum cost of US$3 per dose. This is the lowest quoted price in the world for a COVID vaccine, and will see them distributed in low and middle-income countries. By comparison, German biotech firm BioNTech’s deal with US involves a price of US$19.50 per dose, while the Moderna/US deal is set at between US$32 and US$37 per dose.

Soaring Exports of Pakistan's Information Technology and Pharma Industries Amid COVID Pandemic - Pakistan’s IT exports increased by 44% during the first quarter (July, August and September) of the fiscal year 2020-21, according to a tweet by Razzak Dawood, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Imran Khan. Pharmaceutical exports saw 22.6% increase in the same period over last year.  Pakistan's information technology and pharmaceutical exports are soaring by double digits amid the COVID pandemic, much faster than the overall exports.   "I am glad to note that our exports of Telecommunication & IT Services have done very well during the period Jul-Sep of this Financial Year (FY). The exports have grown by 41% to USD 444 million as compared to USD 315 million in the corresponding period in the last FY", Mr. Dawood tweeted today. In Fiscal Year 2019-20 ending in June, 2020, the Information Telecommunication (IT) and IT enabled Services (ITeS) export remittances surged 23.71% to $1.230 billion from $994.848 million during the same period in the prior year, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics as reported by Pakistani media.  Pakistan's pharmaceutical exports have also gotten off to a great start this year,  rising 22.6% in Q1 of the fiscal year 2021 to $68.1 million from $55.6 million last year.  Export of pharmaceutical products accelerated in September with 57.99% increase from a year earlier, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.    With several major brands moving production to Pakistan amid the COVID19 pandemic, the country's exports have grown at a faster pace than those of Bangladesh and India, according to Bloomberg News. Pakistan's total textile shipments rose 7% in September, compared with India’s 6% and  Bangladesh’s 3.5%.  “Pakistan has seen orders shifting from multiple nations including China, India and Bangladesh,” said Shahid Sattar, secretary general at the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, in an interview with Bloomberg's Faseeh Mangi. “Garment manufacturers are operating near maximum capacity and many can’t take any orders for the next six months.”

A Crushed Student Movement and Shrinking Hope Ahead of Myanmar's Election - (Reuters) - Myanmar teacher Hnin grew up idolizing Aung San Suu Kyi, the one-time democracy icon who now leads her country. But when voters go to the polls on Sunday for the second general election since the end of military rule, Hnin will not back her. While Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) is expected to win again on the strength of its leader’s enduring popularity, critics such as Hnin say she has failed to make good on promises to unite the country. “I have no more trust in her,” said the 21-year-old of the Nobel peace prize laureate. “The path she is trying to take towards democracy is impossible.” Far from the wave of optimism that greeted the NLD’s landslide win in 2015, Myanmar goes into this election facing a surging coronavirus outbreak, rising economic hardship and escalating civil and ethnic conflicts. Hnin is one of dozens of activists from a student group behind anti-government protests and leaflet campaigns across the country in recent months. The All Burma Federation of Students Union (ABFSU), which urges a boycott of the vote, are a fringe group at the sharp edge of deepening disillusionment in parts of the country. Their campaign has been met with a sharp crackdown. Nine have been sentenced, two of them to five years in prison, for causing public mischief among other charges, while 10 others are in police custody and more than a dozen are in hiding.

At least 140 drown in refugee boat disaster off Senegal coast - At least 140 people drowned last week when a boat carrying approximately 200 refugees bound for Europe exploded and sank off the coast of Senegal. The tragedy is the deadliest mass refugee drowning reported this year. According to a statement by the International Organization of Migration published Thursday, the boat departed from Mbour, on the west coast of Senegal, on Oct. 24. It travelled northward in the Atlantic along the Senegalese coast toward the Spanish-controlled Canary Islands, where the hundreds of people aboard hoped to lodge their claims for asylum in Europe. One of the survivors aboard the ship told the local Sene.news, “  “When the fire started at the back of the boat, many passengers, particularly those who couldn’t swim, rushed to the front… When the explosion happened there was a general panic, and those who couldn’t swim hung on to those who could. They stayed there and went down with the boat. I can’t say how many there were.” Fallou Samb, who had a minor in his care aboard the ship, said, “After the boat capsized, he panicked and cried my name. When I found him, I gave him a can so that he could stay above the surface. After two hours, he was exhausted, and couldn’t hold on any longer. He let go and went down in front of my eyes, without anything that I could do.”   The total number of people who had been aboard the ship is unknown. The IOM stated that there were at least 200. Only 59 were saved. Several dozen at least came from the same community in Pikine, a suburb of the Senegalese town of Saint-Louis. “More than 20 youth from the quarter of Pikine had wanted to reach Europe on this trip,” wrote Sene.news. The Guardian reported that in this area, “entire streets were plunged into mourning by the tragedy.” Just two days after the disaster, in the evening of October 25–26, another boat carrying an unknown number of refugees sank five kilometers off the coast of Dakar, the Senegalese capital. Thirty-nine people were saved, but the ship reportedly had between 60 and 70 people aboard. The increasing use of the dangerous route is the direct outcome of the criminal policies of the European powers, who adopted harsh policies leading thousands to drown in the Mediterranean, in order to prevent refugees from exercising their democratic right to claim asylum in Europe.

Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro's senator son Flávio charged with laundering money - The Brazilian President's son has been charged with commanding a criminal organisation and laundering money during his time as an elected politician. Flávio Bolsonaro and 16 others were charged on October 19, according to a statement the public prosecutors' office posted to its website on Wednesday. Prosecutors allege the senator had people on his government-funded payroll who were not required to work and who had to return part of their salaries to him. The senator denied having committed any crime and said he was confident that courts would not accept the charge, according to a message he posted on his verified Instagram account. The accusation is "inviable because it is devoid of any hint of proof. It's nothing more than a macabre and badly engineered tale," one of his four lawyers, Rodrigo Roca, said in a statement. Prosecutors say the alleged scam lasted between 2007 and 2018. The senator's father, Jair Bolsonaro, was elected President in 2018 on a wave of anti-corruption sentiment and with promises to root out crime. His crimefighting bona fides have faced scepticism in light of the investigation into his son, as well as the resignation of his former justice minister, Sergio Moro, who quit and alleged the President had sought to intervene inappropriately in the federal police. Prosecutors also charged Fabrício Queiroz, Senator Bolsonaro's former driver, who was arrested in June. Mr Queiroz is a longtime friend of the President, who last year said the two had not spoken since the allegations surfaced.

  Time to Reset Expectations for World Economy With Virus Untamed - Investors banking on a coronavirus vaccine to save the world economy in 2021 need to temper their ambitions as scientists increasingly warn of a long and difficult road ahead.  While drug companies are making progress in the quest to find a cure for a disease that triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression, questions remain about how effective the first wave of vaccines would be, how easy they will be to distribute to more than 7 billion people and then how many will agree to take them. The future for global growth relies on the answers to those questions as a new wave of the pandemic means health fears and government restrictions continue to inhibit daily life and commerce. Even when a successful immunization system does come along, it won’t be an instant economic panacea, says Chris Chapman, a portfolio manager at Manulife Investment, which manages more than $660 billion.“In terms of actually getting back to pre-Covid or trend growth, it could take more than a year,” said Chapman. “The timing of the recovery will be delayed, but there is still expectation of a vaccine at some point next year.”For decades, the world economy relied on central bankers and finance ministers to pull it out of crisis, on the basis that if you pump the right amount of money into an economy, a recovery will eventually follow.This time is different, as investors look to scientists and data from vaccine and treatment trials for signs of hope just as much as they pore over stimulus plans coming out of Washington, Beijing or European capitals. The longer the hunt for an effective vaccine lasts, the weaker economic expansions will be.To be sure, science could yet make major breakthroughs in the near term. If even only a small proportion of the population such as healthcare workers and the most vulnerable are immunized, that could make a big difference to the resumption of everyday life. Savings built up by households and businesses in 2020 could be unleashed in 2021. “There is a fair prospect that by the late spring, vaccines will be available in quantities sufficient to protect the most vulnerable groups,” said Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, and former Covid-19 adviser to the U.K. government. “But at least until then, life will unfortunately remain a balancing act between reopening society and keeping the virus in check.” Scientific hiccups may slow things down too. Johnson & Johnson paused clinical trials of its Covid-19 shot this month after a participant fell ill, weeks after AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford stopped studies for the same reason. Effective treatments that would also help the economic recovery are also a mixed picture. Disappointing trial results this month for the much-hailed drug remdesivir from Gilead Sciences Inc. showed the antiviral treatment doesn’t save the lives of Covid-19 patients, despite U.S. President Donald Trump extolling its benefits. Still, U.S. regulators cleared the drug for use this week and Gilead has challenged the recent findings citing other positive results. Even if an effective vaccine is discovered, the logistics of distribution will still mean disruption to work, travel and leisure will remain, with only a small subset of the population expected to receive a shot in the first instance anyway.

 Germany starts 'wave-breaker' shutdown as Europe locks down  (AP) — Several European countries are tightening restrictions this week, starting with a partial shutdown Monday in Germany, as authorities across the continent scramble to slow a rapid rise in coronavirus infections that threatens to overwhelm their health care systems. Britain and Austria will follow suit later in the week, closing restaurants, bars and many leisure activities. Italy, Greece and Kosovo also announced new measures. In some places, the new rules — which vary in strictness — are prompting violent protests by people frustrated at once again having to forgo freedoms. But in many, experts are saying they should have come weeks ago — a reflection of the increasingly difficult balance many countries are struggling to strike between controlling the virus and boosting already damaged economies. “We are aware of the frustration, the sense of loss, the tiredness of citizens, also of the anger which is being manifested in these days, by citizens who find themselves living with new limits to their personal freedom,” said Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte, as he defended his government’s decision to order new measures. Restrictions have been slowly ramping up for weeks in many European countries, but virus cases have continued to rise. There was a sign of hope from hard-hit Belgium, however, where a leading virologist said that “the high-speed train is somewhat easing up.” Overall, Europe has seen more than 270,000 confirmed virus-related deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. Experts say case and death figures understate the true toll of the pandemic due to missed cases, limited testing and other reasons. In Germany, restaurants, bars, theaters, cinemas, gyms and other leisure facilities closed in a four-week “wave-breaker” shutdown that seeks to force daily new infections back down to manageable levels. Germans have been asked not to travel, and hotels are barred from accommodating tourists. In a worrying sign for a country long praised for its testing and tracing abilities, German officials say they can’t track the source of three-quarters of new coronavirus cases. Health Minister Jens Spahn, who himself caught the virus, says he doesn’t know where he was infected. Chancellor Angela Merkel said the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care has doubled in 10 days, and the government couldn’t stand by and watch. “The virus punishes half-heartedness,” she said of the new restrictions, telling Germans that “everyone has it in their own hands” to make them a success. “We will do try to do everything politically so that this is limited to November,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin. But she stressed that “we are very much dependent on the majority of people simply being sensible and playing along, and so saving others’ lives.”

 German teachers, students and parents oppose keeping schools open as pandemic spreads- The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s main disease control agency, reported 17,214 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday. According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, daily infections in Germany rose well above 19,000 in recent days. In neighbouring Austria, daily infections have risen above 5,000, with hospitals on Monday reporting a 78 percent increase in patients requiring intensive care treatment within a week. In late September, students in Greece occupied over 700 schools to protest the unsafe restart of in-person teaching and demand safe education for all. A few days later, similar nationwide protests erupted in Poland after two teachers and a student died of COVID-19. Students in France have been striking and protesting since Monday against the unsafe return to schools following the end of the autumn holidays. A parent organization in the UK has called a strike for Thursday to oppose the Johnson’s government’s refusal to close schools. Under conditions of an explosion in new infections, which is the direct product of the German government’s deliberate policy of mass infection, strong opposition to keeping schools open is also developing among students, teachers, and parents in Germany. After a rank-and-file safety committee was founded by students in Dortmund in August, students in Karlsruhe and other cities are now calling for such committees to be established and the closure of schools to be organised. There is growing support for the call by the Sozialistische Gleichheitspartei and International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) for the building of a network of rank-and-file safety committees and the preparation of a Europe-wide school strike against the policy of mass infection. Tensions are running especially high in Bavaria, where the state government will hold a school conference today with students, parents, and teacher representatives. As in other German states, hardly any local authorities in Bavaria are dividing up classes to keep groups small, even though most regions have a seven-day incidence of 100 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Even though the RKI published guidelines two weeks ago advising that regular in-person teaching should be halted when infection levels reach such heights due to medical risks, the ministers of education in Germany’s states simply ignored them. In an open letter to the Education Ministry, the Bavarian State Student Council referred to a “grading spree” of up to four tests per week. This puts students “under incredible pressure to perform, which shows no regard for the current situation.”

Teachers strike across France against first day of deadly school reopenings - As schools reopened across France yesterday after the holidays, mass opposition among students and teachers at the Macron administration’s deadly school reopening policy is growing. Assemblies of teachers met at schools yesterday morning and resolved to strike against the lack of safe conditions to prevent the spread of the virus. Images are being widely shared online showing students crammed like sardines into hallways, classes and cafeterias. The government is reopening schools despite a second wave of the pandemic that its own scientific council has warned will likely be larger than the first, which killed more than 30,000 people in France and 200,000 across Europe. More than 37,000 people have now died from the virus in France, with another 416 deaths reported on Monday. A Twitter account reporting on opposition among teachers to the Macron government reported dozens of local strikes by teachers organised in assemblies at schools across France on Monday morning. At the Balzac de Mitry-Mory school, 24 teachers organised to strike at 8 a.m. yesterday. At the Romain Rolland school in Clichy-sous-Bois near Paris, another 22 teachers voted to strike. In the Feyder school in Epinay-sur-Seine near Paris, 47 teachers voted by 100 percent to strike at 8 a.m. Classes were held for 60 students out of 1,600 enrolled. At the Berthelot school in Pantin, north of Paris, 28 teachers resolved to strike against the demand that they return to classes “as though nothing was happening.” At Bachelard school in Chelles, 20 staff lodged their “right to strike” with the direction due to unsafe conditions caused by the pandemic and “non-respect of the health protocol.” At the Jean Jaurès school in Clichy, teachers walked out, and the administration told families that the school may be forced to close. At Von Donghen school in Lagny, classes were cancelled after teachers threatened to strike. At the Flora Tristan school north of Paris, half of teachers supported a strike at 8:30 a.m. At the Joliot-Curie school in Nanterre, teachers voted 53-3 for a strike at midday. At the Olympe de Gouges school in Noisy-le-Sec, over 30 teachers voted to strike in the morning. At the Eugène Hénaff school in Bagnolet, 18 teachers voted to strike. At the Alice Guy school in Lyon, the student body reportedly refused to enter classes, and there were reports of further strike action by teachers in Montpellier and Marseille, as well. Safety protocols inside schools are essentially non-existent. One teacher writing into Le Monde stated: “I feel humiliated. While in the media there are grandiloquent statements to support our teachers, in reality there is nothing. … The health protocol is the same as before the holidays! The students continue to change between classes, with 30 crammed into a class. We have not received disposable masks since the beginning of the confinement! We have the right to only two masks on Sundays!”

Europe Back In Lockdown Mode - As with the first set of lockdowns in the spring, the restrictions meant to curb the renewed spread of Covid-19 in Europe are happening fast and all at once. Spain and France, where a second wave of infections spread from mid-July, led the way by imposing local lockdowns from early and mid-October, respectively. While France announced a national lockdown to start Friday, Spain’s local solution now includes several major provinces.Germany is following these cues to lock down the country starting Nov. 2 (opting for the national route), and as Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes, several other European countries followed suit this week - among them Poland, which explicitly does not call its new measures a lockdown while still applying all the hallmark restrictions from restaurant and school closures to cancelling cultural and other events, limiting the number of groups that can meet to five, restricting hotel access and urging people not to travel around the country. Several more countries have introduced curfews to harness the spread of the coronavirus, forbidding their citizens to move around during night hours without a good reason. Spain is imposing this measure nationwide in addition to local lockdowns. Italy recently started to employ a similar approach while adding early closing of restaurants into the mix. Still, opposition to the measures has been fierce in both countries. National curfews are also in place in Slovenia, Slovakia, Cyprus and Hungary, where all bars and restaurants are closed in additionAs with the first wave of lockdowns, enforcement varies significantly between countries, with Germany merely urging residents to stay at home, while more stringent checks are customary in Spain and France. Unlike the first time around, several governments imposing restrictions have said that they are expecting to ease them again rather soon, starting in early December.

Goldman, Deutsche Order UK Staff To Stay Home As European COVID-19 Outbreak Explodes -Just days after Capital One announced that all of its 'call center' workers would be allowed to work from home permanently if they so desired, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have ordered all of their staff in London (and for Deutsche, all staffers in the UK) to work from home until they hear otherwise. Goldman Sachs said only ‘in-office essential’ employees would be allowed to work from its London office after UK PM Boris Johnson announced the new lockdown measures. This represents a remarkable shift from where the bank stood in September, when it started to quietly move staff back to the office.To be sure, Goldman in-office essential employees represents a tiny fraction of the bank's 5,000 workers in London. Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, has said that employees who are eligible to continue working from DB's UK offices will receive an email Monday evening with instructions.An internal memo obtained by Bloomberg said only essential workers will be permitted to come to GS's Plumtree Court building, according to an internal memo. Deutsche Bank also informed staff that only essential employees can work from all the bank's offices in the UK. Gyms will remain open, for another day, but they will be closed by Wednesday,Goldman, DB and other banks paused plans to bring bankers back to the office in September after outbreaks were discovered on trading floors owned by JPM, Goldman and Deutsche in both New York and London. Before that, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon publicly leaked research from the bank criticizing working from home as a drain on "creative intelligence"displayed by the bank's younger analysts.

Trump or Biden, Trade Deals Still Threaten Britain’s NHS - Regardless of what happens, the new (or incumbent) president will have an eye trained on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Trump has made clear his willingness to push US corporate agendas onto an isolated UK. Biden may be less interested than Trump in prioritising a UK deal (and providing political cover to the Brexit project). But the Democrat candidate’s track record on trade means that under a Biden presidency, too, there could be grave global trade-related consequences for the NHS and the patients who rely on it, in particular when it comes to access to drugs and treatments  So what is an FTA, and why are they important? An FTA dictates the terms of economic trade, either directly between two countries such as the US and the UK, or between larger blocs of countries. They cover policies like tariffs, taxes, and intellectual property – in essence, what we sell, what we buy, and how much we pay for it.  With Brexit looming, the UK desperately needs to strike trade deals in order to offset the economic shock of leaving the EU, so the British government is in a much weaker negotiating position than before. Knowing this, the US will exploit their advantage and seek to force concessions from the UK across the board, most crucially when it comes to the pricing of drugs and medicines purchased by the NHS to treat patients like you and I.  Drug pricing and the US-UK FTA was a big issue this time last year in the general election, with Labour highlighting that under a new agreement the NHS spending on US-made drugs and medicines could skyrocket. The Conservatives have persistently responded that the NHS is “not for sale” but that’s not what’s at stake in this instance. US pharmaceutical companies aren’t looking to buy the NHS, instead they are focused on extracting as much money from it as possible by gouging prices in a trade deal that favours them.  This isn’t speculation, either – it’s well-documented that drug prices have been discussed at length throughout the trade talks, with US negotiators expressing excitement around ‘liberalisation’, a euphemism for the relaxation of rules around issues such as agriculture (chlorinated chicken, anyone?) and indeed, how much they are able to charge the NHS for medicine.  With regards to drug pricing the outcome of Tuesday night’s election is almost immaterial. The Trump administration has stated repeatedly that increasing drugs prices overseas is a priority, with the POTUS himself blaming foreign “freeloading” foreign countries for high domestic drug prices (rather than, I don’t know, for-profit healthcare and the largest pharmaceutical lobby in the world!) Biden, meanwhile, has recent experience of going to bat for the US pharmaceutical industry – under the Biden-Obama administration the US sought to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP, now termed CPTPP after some amendments) which offers similar, and in some cases even worse leg-ups for pharmaceutical firms. The Trump administration exited the TPP but Biden may seek to return to it in its new iteration, which would force the UK to negotiate on its terms when it comes to trade.  Whatever happens, the coming months will be crucial when it comes to the future of the NHS. If pharmaceutical companies are given the green light to ramp up prices will mean that the NHS is unable to afford some drugs and treatments, and will be forced to either ration them to patients or deny them treatment outright. A trade deal that creates a windfall for US pharma companies could very likely increase suffering and death from treatable conditions here in the UK.