week ending Dec 25

 The Fed Gets Its Ducks in a Row for the Next Wall Street Bailout; Quietly Adds Goldman Sachs Bank, Citibank to Its New $500 Billion Standing Repo Facility By Pam Martens --Last Friday, with the public’s attention diverted to the surge in Omicron variant cases of COVID in the U.S. and holiday travelers’ attention focused on the safety of air travel and family gatherings, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York quietly announced, in a one sentence statement, that it was adding the following three federally-insured banks to its list of counterparties for its newly-minted $500 billion Standing Repo Facility: Citibank, Goldman Sachs Bank USA, and the New York Branch of Mizuho Bank. If you’re stunned that Goldman Sachs is allowed to own a federally-insured bank under existing U.S. law, see our previous report: Goldman Sachs’ Rich Man’s Bank Backstopped by You and Me. If you’re stunned that a New York branch of Mizuho Bank, part of the Japanese conglomerate Mizuho Financial Group, is able to have federal deposit insurance backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer, welcome to the world of borderless global banking for the one percent. These three banks have a number of things in common: (1) each financial institution already has a broker-dealer affiliate that is already one of the Fed’s 24 primary dealers that participates in the Fed’s repo operations; (2) each of the three banks’ primary dealer affiliates took large, secret loans from the Fed’s repo facility when credit collapsed on Wall Street on September 17, 2019; (3) all three institutions have trillions of dollars in exposure to derivatives according to data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).If all three banks already have broker-dealer affiliates participating in the Fed’s repo loan facility, why would another affiliate be added? The first thought that comes to mind is the fact that the Fed puts a daily cap on the dollar amount that each counterparty can borrow per day. By having two affiliates as counterparties, the amount that can be borrowed is doubled. Why would these three banks need to have a sugar daddy at the Fed to loan them money in a financial crisis? Because all three banks have huge exposure to derivatives. According to the latest report from the OCC, as of September 30, 2021, Goldman Sachs Bank USA had $387 billion in assets versus $48 trillion (yes, trillion) in notional (face amount) derivatives. Citibank had $1.7 trillion in assets versus $44 trillion in notional derivatives. Mizuho’s bank holding company had $48.8 billion in assets versus $6 trillion in derivatives. Until July of this year, only the Fed’s primary dealers were eligible to participate in the Fed’s repo facility. That all changed in July, when the Fed announced it would be adding depository banks as counterparties and making the repo facility a “Standing Repo Facility” with the ability to lend $500 billion per day in overnight loans, which can, of course, be rolled over for long periods of time. See our July report: The Fed Announces Plans to Permanently Backstop Wall Street with a Standing Repo Loan Facility of $500 Billion…Starting Tomorrow. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the Fed is required to release its repo loan data after two years has elapsed, unless it elects to do so earlier. The Fed is now releasing the data from 2019 quarter by quarter. Thus far, the public has only seen the Wall Street borrowing binge for the period beginning on September 17 through the end of that quarter, ending on September 30, 2019.

End of Easy Money: Global Tightening in Full Swing, While the Fed Promises to Wake Up in Time Next Year - Wolf Richter . The Czech National Bank dished out another surprise today, raising its main policy interest rate by 100 basis points to 3.75%, the highest since February 2008, and the fifth rate hike this year. A hefty rate hike had been expected, but not this hefty: None of 11 analysts polled by Reuters predicted a 100-point hike. At its prior meeting on November 4, the CNB had jacked up its policy rate by 125 basis points, the biggest shock-and-awe rate hike in 24 years. Since June, when it began its rate-hike tango, the CNB jacked up its policy rate by 350 basis points, from 0.25% to 3.75%. This sense of urgency – sorely lacking from the Fed – was motivated by red-hot inflation which hit 6.0% for November, the highest since 2008, amid supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, and spiking energy prices. Ironically, the Fed, which is confronted with an even higher inflation rate –– 6.8% in November – hasn’t yet raised the target range for its policy rate, which is still stuck near 0%. The Central Bank of Russia, on December 17, raised its policy rate by another 100 basis points to 8.5%, its seventh rate hike this year, totaling 425 basis points, from 4.25% to 8.5%, pressured by surging inflation, particularly food price inflation. Overall inflation in Russia hit 8.4%, food inflation hit 10.8%. This makes the Central Bank of Russia the only central bank whose rate hikes have actually caught up with inflation. Interest rates that are below the rate of inflation are still stimulative and inflationary; Russia has reached some level of neutral. Since July, the Bank of Russia has been using the term “persistent” in its statements to describe this inflation, while the Fed’s Powell was still clinging ludicrously to “transitory” and “temporary.” The Bank of the Republic (Colombia), also on December 17, hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.0%, the third rate hike in a row, totaling 125 basis points since liftoff at 1.75% in September. Inflation hit 5.3% in November. The Bank of England, on December 16, raised its policy rate by 15 basis points for liftoff, to 0.25%, dishing out a surprise to markets, after having walked back expectations of a rate hike at this meeting. Inflation in the UK surged to 5.1% in November, the worst in 10 years. The BoE could start Quantitative Tightening as soon as February next year. In a strategy paper last summer, the BoE said that it would stop reinvesting the maturing bonds on its balance sheet, and would therefore allow its balance sheet to shrink, once its policy rate reaches 0.5%. A 25-basis-point rate hike to 0.5% could happen at its next meeting in February, which would open the door to QT.

Finance capital and the COVID-19 pandemic - Nothing like it has been seen in economic history. According to analysis by the Bank of America, reported by the Financial Times at the weekend, central banks have pumped $32 trillion into financial markets since the pandemic began. This means that since the interventions, led by the Fed, started in response to the market meltdown of March 2020, central banks have been buying financial assets at the rate of $800 million per hour for 20 months. The result has been a massive speculative boom that has resulted in a rise in stock market capitalization of $60 trillion. The scale of this increase can be seen when compared to figures for gross domestic product (GDP) which measures growth in the real economy. The annual economic output of the US is around $22 trillion while global GDP is about $84 trillion. In other words, the growth in market capitalisation, which is most pronounced in the US, is equivalent to more than two and half times annual American output. It is roughly three quarters that of the entire world economy. These comparisons serve to underscore the nature of the escalation of the stock market and its divorce from the underlying real economy. Stocks, bonds and other financial assets do not embody real value. Vast profits can be made when they are traded but these profits do not signify that any real value has been expanded. By contrast, in the real economy, a company makes profit from the extraction of surplus value from the labour power of the workers it employs. Shares and other financial assets are what Marx called fictitious capital, that is, they are titles to property and, in the final analysis, are a claim on the surplus value extracted by real capital in the economy. The situation is, of course, more complicated than depicted here, but, whatever its complexities, this is its essential dynamic. While fictitious capital can exist for a considerable period in a kind of heaven where money begets ever greater quantities of money, often through all kinds of arcane operations, it can never completely separate itself from its earthly foundations. This heaven can be sustained by the provision of ever greater quantities of virtually free money from the central banks through the lowering of interest rates to near zero and the purchases of financial assets. Ultimately, however, it depends on the continuous extraction of surplus value from the living labour of the working class upon which it feeds as a gargantuan vampire. And if that flow is threatened with an interruption—by a cessation of production or through the development of strike struggles for wages—it finds expression in the markets as financial confidence is shaken.

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Spikes To Almost 40-Year-Highs, Real Spending Flat -The growth is Americans' personal spending was expected to decelerate in November, as income growth also slowed. Analysts narrated October's surprise spending gain as being driven by pull-forward on supply-chain availability fears. Analysts nailed it for once with both income and spending coming in as expected (+0.4% MoM and +0.6% MoM respectively) Wage growth for private and government workers slowed dramatically last month... This is the 9th straight month of spending increases, and notably far higher than the income growth. Obviously that means the savings rate is tumbling... and it just plunged to its lowest since Dec 2017! Finally, and perhaps most importantly, The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - the core PCE deflator - soared in the last month. The headline PCE deflator hit 5.7% YoY, the highest since June 1982... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Which left real personal spending unchanged MoM, worse than the +0.2% MoM expected and well down from the +0.7% MoM in October...

Even Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Spikes Relentlessly: Parallel Isn’t 1982, but 1974, When Powell was in College - By Wolf Richter The Fed purposefully uses a special price index for its 2% inflation target: “core” PCE, which excludes food and energy. The core PCE and the headline PCE are the two lowest lowball inflation measures that the US government produces, understating actual inflation even more than other measures that the government produces, such as CPI-based measures. And this “core PCE,” which understates inflation by the most, spiked to 4.7% in November, the worst inflation reading since February 1989, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. Over double the Fed’s inflation target. And the trend doesn’t look good either: Inflation is shooting higher even as this Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% and is still printing money hand over fist, though less than it did two months ago. And the Fed has finally backed off its ridiculous claims that this inflation, caused by enormous historic amounts of money printing and interest rate repression, is just temporary and due to bottlenecks and supply chains. The overall PCE inflation index that includes food and energy, the second-lowest lowball inflation measure the US government produces, spiked by 0.6% in November from October, and by 5.7% year-over-year, the worst reading since 1982. For having triggered this inflation, and for having refused to acknowledge it, and then for refusing to deal with it for a year-plus, this Fed will go down in history as one of the most reckless Feds ever. But it’s not like 1982: Today, the Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% and is still printing money. “Real” (CPI adjusted) short-term interest rates are negative 6.7%, and this inflation is spiking straight into the sky. In July 1982, inflation was coming down, short-term interest rates were over 12%, and coming down, “real” rates were a positive 6%, and the Fed wasn’t printing money at all. More like 1974… The comparison should be between inflation today and inflation in 1974, when inflation was spiking just like it is spiking today, and when Powell was still in college. There is practically no one left at the Fed or on Wall Street with any professional experience in this type of inflation spike. But even that comparison isn’t valid because in January 1974, with the same core PCE inflation reading as today, and spiking as today, the Fed had already pushed short-term interest rates to over 9%, compared to near 0% today. In 1974, the Fed was fighting inflation. Today, the Fed is still fueling inflation. That’s why this Fed will go down in history as one of the most reckless ever. Despite this massive spike in inflation, the Fed is still printing money and repressing interest rates to near 0%. It had been jabbering all year about this inflation going away on its own, and all year, this inflation has gotten worse and worse, driven by massive historic money printing and interest rate repression.

Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.3% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2021: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.7% to 2.0%. Residential investment was revised up from -8.3% to -7.7%.

US economy grew at 2.3 percent rate in Q3, up from earlier estimate - The U.S. economy grew at a 2.3 percent rate in the third quarter, slightly better than previously thought, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. But prospects for a solid rebound going forward are being clouded by the rapid spread of the latest variant of the coronavirus. The third and final look at the performance of the gross domestic product (GDP), the nation's total output of goods and services, was higher than last month's estimate of 2.1 percent growth. The new-found strength came primarily from stronger consumer spending than what was previously thought, as well as businesses rebuilding their inventories more than initial estimates revealed. The 2.3 percent third quarter gain follows explosive growth that began the year as the country was emerging from the pandemic, at least economically. Growth soared to 6.3 percent in the first quarter and 6.7 percent in the second quarter. The emergence of the delta variant in the summer was blamed for much of the third quarter slowdown. Now with the appearance of the omicron variant, coming on top of high inflation and lingering supply chain issues, there are concerns that growth could be constrained heading into 2022. Those fears have sent the stock market on a turbulent ride in recent days, although new optimism that the omicron risks will be manageable sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 560 points Tuesday. On Wednesday, President Biden convened a meeting of his supply chain disruptions task force virtually and in-person in Washington, where he touted what he said was significant progress in alleviating bottlenecks at the ports and other issues that had created shortages of goods and contributed to higher prices for consumers. Biden said that retail inventories are up 3 percent from last year and on-shelf availability for products is at 90 percent, close to where it was before the pandemic. “Packages are moving. Gifts are being delivered. Shelves are not empty,” Biden said. Still, it is what is unknown that is of concern to many economists, who say it is far too early to declare an all-clear on the threats posed by the new variant. “History is repeating itself with the COVID virus suddenly reappearing and dampening economic growth prospects,” Oxford Economics has trimmed its forecast for economic growth for the current quarter from 7.8 percent to 7.3 percent, which would still represent a sizable rebound from the third-quarter slowdown. After Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) voiced opposition to his party’s spending plans, Goldman Sachs cut its GDP forecast to 2 percent from 3 percent for the first quarter, 3 percent from 3.5 percent for the second quarter, and 2.75 percent from 3 percent in third quarter. Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist for Oxford, said the firm's current assessment was that the resurgence of COVID-19 could reduce growth next year from 4.3 percent to 4.1 percent and that if Biden’s Build Back Better program is completely derailed, that could likely shave another 0.4 percentage points in 2022, lowering it to around 3.7 percent and chop a half-point from growth in 2023, reducing it to below 2 percent. She said under these assumptions, job growth could be 750,000 lower by this time next year if economic growth slows as much as she fears. “Omicron has been so rampant,” Bostjancic said. “We think it is going to take a pretty big toll on economic activity.” And it is not just the resurgence of COVID-19 that could hold the economy back next year. Inflation has spiked to the highest level in nearly four decades, prompting the Federal Reserve to start pulling back the massive amounts of support it has been providing to the economy as it switches from trying to boost job growth to fighting inflation. Economists expect GDP growth this year to come in around 5.5 percent, which would be the best showing since 1984 and a reversal from last year when the economy shrank by 3.4 percent and the global pandemic erased 22 million jobs early in the year. Wednesday's report showed that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S., grew at a 2 percent rate in the third quarter, down from the 12 percent surge in the April-June quarter, but up from last month's estimated quarterly gain of 1.7 percent. It is the uncertainty of what is to come, however, that is now concerning economists.

Q3 GDP Rises 2.3% In Final Estimate, More Than Expected, Due To Upward Revision In Personal Spending Tthe BEA reported the second estimate of Q3 GDP and it printed at 2.3% (2.290% to be precise), higher than both the previous estimate of 2.1% and the consensus forecast of 2.1%. GDP rose at a 6.7% annualized rate in Q2, so a slowdown but not as bad as previously expected.The update primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and inventory investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Here are the details:

• Personal consumption added 1.35% to the bottom line GDP print, up from 1.18% previously
• Fixed investment subtracted -0.16%, less than the -0.20% prior
• Change in private inventories also boosted GDP modestly, rising from 2.13% in the first estimate to 2.20% currently.
• Net exports were a bigger drag than previously expected, subtracting -1.27%, more than the -1.16% prior, due to a greater drag from exports (-0.59% vs -0.33% previously) while imports were a smaller drag at -0.68% vs -0.83% prior.
• Government contribution to the bottom line GDP was flat at 0.17%, virtually unchanged from 0.16% last.

Of these, the biggest surprise was the increase in personal consumption which rose 2.0% annualized, more than the 1.7% expected. On the inflation front, the GDP price index rose 6.0% in 3Q after rising 6.1% prior quarter - this was the highest print in almost 40 years; The deflator came in at 5.9%, in line with expectations. Core PCE q/q rose 4.6% in 3Q after rising 6.1% prior quarter; it came just above the 4.5% expectation. Looking at corporate profits, these rose 10.5% in the prior quarter; y/y corp. profits are up 19.7% in 3Q after rising 45.1% prior quarter. Financial industry profits increased 2.6% Q/q in 3Q after rising 10.9% prior quarter. Federal Reserve bank profits were up 12.5% in 3Q after rising 36.4% prior quarter, while nonfinancial sector profits rose 1.7% Q/q in 3Q after rising 13.8% prior quarter. Finally, today’s release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP. Private goods-producing industries decreased 5.5 percent, while private services-producing industries increased 3.9 percent, and government increased 5.1 percent. Overall, 14 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP.

• The decrease in private goods-producing industries was widespread, led by construction.
• The increase in private services-producing industries primarily reflected increases in professional, scientific, and technical services; finance and insurance (led by securities, commodity contracts, and investments); accommodation and food services; administrative and waste management services (led by administrative and support services); and information (led by motion picture and sound recording industries).
• The increase in government primarily reflected an increase in state and local government

Per Capita GDP Doing Just Fine, Linearly, since 1947 – Menzie Chinn - If you don’t believe me, take a look at this time series plot of available US GDP per capita. Figure 1: GDP per capita, in Ch.2012$ SAAR (blue); Linear trend (brown). Source: BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations. Linear regression yields t-stat on time trend of about 60 using robust standard errors. GDP per capita is rising about 40 Ch2012$ per quarter. Or, one might think to plot on a log scale. Figure 2: GDP per capita, in Ch.2012$ SAAR (blue, on log scale). Source: BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations. Which one is misleading? One reader thinks: In general, log scales are to be avoided for all but professional audiences, notably when exponential growth rates are involved. I would almost never use one in a commercial setting or for a general audience, because they are so easy to misinterpret. I strongly prefer simple linear scales when possible. Well, I think one could better characterize this series as exhibiting exponential growth (with unit root) than unit growth.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 19th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 17.7% from the same day in 2019 (82.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving holiday week. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through December 18, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining is mostly moving sideways, and there has been no significant decline - yet - due to the winter wave of COVID. The 7-day average for the US is down 12% compared to 2019. Movie ticket sales were at $59 million last week, down about 66% from the median for the week. The numbers next week will include the newest Spider Man. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through December 11th. The occupancy rate was down 4.8% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021. As of December 10th, gasoline supplied was up 0.6% compared to the same week in 2019. This was the 12th week this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through December 17th for the United States and several selected cities. IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 111% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down significantly (next graph).This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).Manhattan is at about 42% of normal. This data is through Friday, December 17th.

 Sen. Paul Details $52 Billion Federal "Waste" In Annual 'Festivus Report' - Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has unveiled his annual “Festivus Report,” which tracks what he sees as “waste” spending by the federal government. According to the libertarian-leaning Kentuckian, that waste topped over $52 billion in 2021. Since arriving in the Senate amid the Tea Party wave of 2010, Paul had made the federal budget one of his foremost concerns. Like his father, 2008 and 2012 presidential candidate and former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), the younger Paul has decried U.S. military adventurism, the excesses of the post-9/11 surveillance state, and the perpetually unbalanced budget of the federal government. The Festivus Report has been a staple for Paul since 2015, when he released his first edition of the report. In the 2021 report, Paul calculated that federal boondoggles added up to a total of $52,598,515,585 - an amount Paul says could have been used to give everyone on Earth around $6.78, build 13,149 miles of four-lane highway, operate Veterans’ Affairs facilities for 4.5 months, or to fund the Department of Energy for nearly two years. From ground-up ferrets to border walls for Middle Eastern countries to a federally-funded dinosaur film, these are some of the most striking examples of bizarre spending revealed by Paul.M

More Than $100 Billion Was Stolen From Pandemic Relief Funds, Secret Service Says -When it comes to government waste, we've seen some pretty big numbers of recent - including $80 billion worth of military equipment that was left behind in Afghanistan just months ago.But trumping that number, according to the Secret Service, is more than $100 billion that was stolen from pandemic relief funds. The $100 billion figure is "at a minimum," a new report from AP says.The estimate is based on "Secret Service cases and data from the Labor Department and the Small Business Administration," the report says. “The sheer size of the [$3.4 trillion dispersed] is enticing to the criminals", said Roy Dotson, the agency’s national pandemic fraud recovery coordinator.A majority of the figure comes from unemployment fraud, the report notes. About $87 billion in benefits may have been paid out improperly, The Labor Department says. So far, the Secret Service has seized over $1.2 billion while investigating unemployment insurance and loan fraud. It has returned more than $2.3 billion in fraudulently obtained funds and has more than 900 active criminal investigations into pandemic fraud.

West Virginia Senator Manchin kills Biden’s already stripped-down “Build Back Better” legislation - In a debacle for President Joe Biden, the Democratic Party and their pseudo-left appendages, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced he “cannot vote to continue with” the “Build Back Better” (BBB) legislation, effectively killing Biden’s signature 10-year, $1.75 trillion social, climate and tax bill. That Manchin chose to make the statement appearing on Fox News, the semi-official network of the Republican right, only underscored the flagrantly right-wing character of his action. The Democratic senator deliberately torpedoed an agreement with the Biden White House to move ahead with the vote on the social spending bill if “progressive” Democrats in the House of Representative lifted their blockade on the infrastructure legislation, which was enacted by Congress last month and signed into law by Biden. His appearance on Fox signaled that if there is any political retaliation against him for blocking the bill, Manchin will simply cross the aisle and join the Republican Party, making Mitch McConnell the majority leader for at least the next year, and potentially for the rest of Biden’s term in office. Manchin told his host on Fox News Sunday, Bret Baier: “I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can’t. I’ve tried everything humanly possible. I can’t get there.” Baier followed up: “You’re done? This is—is this a no?” “This is a no on this legislation. I have tried everything I know to do,” replied Manchin. In a follow-up statement released by his Senate office, he claimed his “concerns have only increased as the pandemic surges on, inflation rises and geopolitical uncertainty increases around the world.” Manchin’s real concerns, however, are suggested by his personal wealth, founded largely on the coal industry, and by the report in the Guardian last month that he “had taken more than $1.5 million … from corporate interests opposed to the Build Back Better plan as of September.” He echoed Republican talking points that the limited bill, with modest improvements in social benefits, including the child tax credit, four weeks of paid family leave and the expansion of Medicare to include hearing aids, as a “socialist takeover” of the US government. Manchin added: “My Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face. I cannot take that risk with a staggering debt of more than $29 trillion.” Manchin’s self-professed concern about the “debt” has yet to manifest itself when it comes to voting for the US war machine. Since being elected to the Senate in 2010, Manchin has voted “yes” for 11 yearly defense appropriations bill, totaling over $9.8 trillion in just over a decade.

Coal Baron Joe Manchin Rejects Build Back Better, Potentially Killing It --Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), who famously shot a literal hole through the 2009 Cap and Trade bill, said Sunday he “could not” vote for the Build Back Better Act, likely dooming the bill in its current form.His opposition, largely predicated on the bill’s price tag, came despite the bill being significantly scaled downto appease his concerns and assurances after the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill last month that he would negotiate in good faith.In a written statement, Manchin – a millionaire coal baron and former executive at rightwing polluter-friendly bill mill ALEC– rationalized his opposition to the bill by invoking disinformation falsely blaming renewables for gas- and climate-driven blackouts in Texas and California, claiming BBB would move us too quickly to a clean energy economy.On Sunday, many Democrats in Congress criticized Manchin’s position, but pushed to move forward with a vote on some version of the bill after the new year anyway."Today, Senator Manchin has betrayed his commitment not only to the President and Democrats in Congress but most importantly, to the American people,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal said in a statement. “He routinely touts that he is a man of his word, but he can no longer say that. West Virginians, and the country, see clearly who he is.” For a deeper dive: Associated Press, Vox, POLITICO, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, CNBC, CBS,Business Insider, MSNBC, NPR, MSNBC, The Hill, Slate, The Guardian; Climate: NPR, New York Times,Axios, Vox, NBC News, NPR; Congressional reactions: Washington Post, USA Today, Business Insider,MSNBC, Washington Post, Business Insider, ABC, MSNBC, NBC, NBC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN; Opinion:Washington Post, James Downie, Washington Post, Karen Tumulty, Wall Street Journal Editorial

Manchin’s no vote on Build Back Better bill undercuts President Biden’s climate agenda - President Biden’s climate agenda suffered a massive setback Sunday after Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) pulled his support from Democrats’ spending bill, potentially dooming the legislation amid warnings from scientists that the world is running out of time to prevent climate change’s most catastrophic effects.Manchin’s comments on “Fox News Sunday” put at risk a $555 billion package of tax credits, grants and other policies aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions that would rank as the largest clean-energy investment in U.S. history. The legislation’s passage would have helped Biden meet his goal of cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions in half compared with 2005 levels by 2030.The senator, who had been the chief Democratic obstacle to the White House’s sweeping policy initiative for nearly six months, said he could not support the bill because of his concerns about inflation, the growing deficit and the need to focus on the omicron coronavirus variant.Without a reduction of that speed and scale, the United States would fall short of the targets it committed to under the 2015 Paris agreement, potentially locking in a future of increasingly destructive forest fires, deadly floods and droughts. Already, record-breaking hurricanes and fires are testing the federal government’s ability to respond to overlapping disasters.The administration has already adopted several policies to limit climate pollutants: This week it will tighten mileage standards for cars and light trucks, and it has adopted rules that would curb potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning. But several analyses have shown that these executive actions will not make deep enough emissions cuts to meet the president’s global climate pledge. The president and his deputies can still write new regulations to encourage utilities and auto companies to shift away from fossil fuels, while tightening energy efficiency standards, Larsen said, and state actions can also accelerate greenhouse gas reductions. But without the bill’s generous tax incentives and spending to ease the transition, industry groups will be less likely to accept those changes without a fight. And a future administration could unravel these rules more easily than an existing law.

Manchin burns climate package. What happens now? - West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin delivered a blow yesterday to legislation seen as the last best chance for Congress to address climate change, but congressional leaders appear unwilling to give up. Manchin’s move upended the Democrats’ calculus for approving much of the president’s agenda, leading to a stern statement from White House spokesperson Jen Psaki. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) say the effort continues. In an appearance on "Fox News Sunday," the chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee said he could not support the "Build Back Better" bill, along with its $555 billion in climate-related spending. “I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can’t,” Manchin said. “I’ve tried everything humanly possible. I can’t get there. This is a no on this legislation.” Manchin’s comments came just days after President Biden acknowledged the Senate would not vote on a revised version of the $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation package before the Christmas holiday. Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues last night, "First and foremost, our work For The People demands that we stay at the table to pass the Build Back Better Act. While it is disappointing that we may not have a law by the end of the year, we are hopeful that we will soon reach agreement so that this vital legislation can pass as soon as possible next year." Similarly, Schumer said in a letter this morning, "We simply cannot give up." The inability of Democrats to close a deal with Manchin led to the punt. Manchin and fellow centrist Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, along with some House moderates, have slowly whittled down the package to meet spending and other concerns. Most notably, negotiators struck a $150 billion clean electricity performance program at the behest of Manchin, who feared the mandate to increase clean energy deployment would raise prices and threaten grid reliability. Democrats instead opted to focus on a series of tax credits meant to incentivize clean energy deployment, manufacturing and electric vehicle use. Climate hawks were also seeking a compromise with Manchin on a methane fee.

'Not the end of the road': Greens defiant as bill collapses - Environmental groups struck a defiant tone yesterday, pledging to keep pushing forward on the climate change provisions in the “Build Back Better Act” even after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he wouldn’t support the measure. Climate advocates said President Biden and congressional Democrats put together what would be the most aggressive climate policies in the nation’s history, and Manchin shouldn’t be able to sink them. While they did not outline specific strategies, greens want the climate investments, including $555 billion of clean energy tax credits, electric vehicle incentives, grants and other measures, to keep moving forward. “This is not the end of the road,” Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of government affairs at the League of Conservation Voters, said. “We are more determined than ever, and we will keep fighting like hell to ensure the Build Back Better Act becomes law — for the people of West Virginia and for all people in this country who care deeply about climate, jobs, and justice.” Many advocates said time was running out to act on climate change and that the bill was the best opportunity. “The transformative climate investments included in the Build Back Better Act are our last, best chance to tackle the climate crisis before it’s too late," said Jamal Raad, executive director of Evergreen Action. "Failure is not an option.” Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, echoed that sentiment. “The stakes for the country are too high. Inaction would cripple our economy, as climate costs and dangers rise," he said. "The investments in this bill will create jobs, strengthen our economy and cut costs for our families and workers,” he continued. “Congress must return in early January to enact this measure without fail or delay.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the firebrand progressive and former presidential candidate, said he wants to see Congress vote on the measure, “as soon as the Senate returns.” He also sees it as an opportunity to force Manchin to own up to his expected “no” vote. “He should have to explain to West Virginians and the American people why he doesn’t have the courage to stand up to powerful special interests and lower prescription drug costs; expand Medicare to cover dental, hearing and eyeglasses; continue the $300 per child direct monthly payment which has cut childhood poverty by over 40 percent; and address the devastating impacts of climate change,” Sanders said in a statement. “He should also have to explain why he is not prepared to demand that millionaires and large corporations start paying their fair share of taxes.” What’s Next for the Democrats’ Big Bill? - On Sunday, many pundits asserted that the Democrats’ “Build Back Better” mega-bill was completely dead; by Monday afternoon, President Joe Biden was apparently once again talkingwith Senator Joe Manchin, and the bill is … well, it may not be thriving, but it’s not so dead after all. Perhaps Manchin needed the blowup to differentiate himself from other Democrats; perhaps the White House needed it to take Manchin’s real antipathy toward Biden’s expanded child tax credit seriously. It’s also possible — as some liberals suspect — that Manchin simply likes keeping the negotiations going but has no intention of ever making a deal. If that’s the case, the bill will eventually die. But no matter how painful it would be to many Democrats, omitting the child tax credit would surely still leave them with a bill they should rush to accept. And who knows? Senator Mitt Romney resurfaced his own child tax credit plan on Monday and declared himself open for negotiations. It seems unlikely that Democrats could find the needed votes with Romney (and perhaps a few other Republicans), but if that turns out to be the only game in town and it can be advanced in addition to the climate, health care and other provisions that would remain in a slightly-less-mega-bill, Democrats will only have to beat the status quo to find something they can live with.A few more points on all this.First, I’ve seen people argue that some moderate liberal Senate Democrats who aren’t enthusiastic for Build Back Better may have been hiding behind Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema and might be quite happy if the bill stays dead. Plausible! But House Democrats were nearly unanimous in voting for a larger bill than what appears to be on the table in the Senate, with the only dissent being a (more liberal side) complaint about the state-and-local tax deduction cap. Moderate liberals in the House could’ve pushed for their priorities. They didn’t, other than insisting on passage of a separate infrastructure bill. If they’re unhappy with the bill but not doing anything about it, in a situation where one Senate vote could sink the whole thing? I’m not sure we need to care about whatever unease they may have.As for Manchin, there’s a lot of nonsense out there about him not really being a Democrat. I have my criticisms of the FiveThirtyEight data on presidential support, but the basics are clear: Manchin votes with other Democrats, and with Biden’s position, all the time. And there’s a significant gap between the most conservative Democrat and the most liberal Republican. With a Republican in Manchin’s seat, even in the unlikely event that the replacement was a moderate, Democrats would not have passed their major Covid-relief bill earlier in the year, and would have no chance for even a slimmed-down version of Build Back Better. Of course, if Manchin’s seat was held by a Republican, Mitch McConnell would be the Senate majority leader, and Democratic legislation — along with most judicial and executive-branch nominations — wouldn’t get to the floor for a vote anyway.

Don’t Count Out Manchin’s Vote Just Yet -The Senate finished up for the year without any action on the big Democratic climate/health care/child care/family support/etc. bill. The plan suffered another big hit Sunday when Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, declared he was simply against it, leaving only 49 remaining votes in the Senate. In response, the White House put out an angry statement (attributed to Press Secretary Jen Psaki) lashing out at Manchin. Other Democratic politicians and party actors directed even more brutal comments at him. Many pundits did the math and declared the bill dead. Well … there’s dead and there’s dead, and my guess is what the Democrats call “Build Back Better” isn’t all that dead. Yet. The bottom line is what it’s always been: If Manchin ultimately wants a bill, it’s fairly certain that everything else will fall in place. Even the most liberal Democrats in Congress will ultimately prefer half a bill, or even a 10th of a bill, over nothing if it’s clear those are the only choices. It’s not as if Manchin is insisting on including lots of stuff Senator Bernie Sanders doesn’t want, which would make it a harder dilemma. Instead, it’s just a question — assuming Manchin eventually returns to the bargaining table — of how many of the things Sanders and others want that they’ll eventually get. Which is also, no matter how frustrated other Democrats may be, why Manchin really does have an enormous amount of leverage. Democrats are trying to enact a very ambitious agenda with tiny congressional majorities; it shouldn’t surprise anyone if that turns out to be hard to do.. It’s true that the 50 Democratic senators represent a lot more people than the 50 Republican senators do, and that’s hard to justify. Still, those are the rules of the game, and Democrats have had plenty of majorities over the past 20 years. It’s not really clear what Manchin’s goals are. Suppose, however, that he wants to eventually support a bill. Along the way, it wouldn’t be surprising if he also wanted to differentiate himself as much as possible from the other 49 senators he’d eventually be voting with. If that’s the case, he might see the attacks from liberals as a necessary condition for his eventual “yes” vote. If that’s the case, then Sunday was, perversely, a step toward passage. What of his comments about budget gimmickry? Manchin’s complaint is that the bill phases out some of its benefits within a 10-year window, even though most Democrats wants them to be permanent. He’s wrong that doing so is a gimmick to make the bill “score” as if it was deficit-neutral when in fact, as he and the Republicans claim, it would really drive up the deficit; there’s no reason to assume that future Democrats, having paid for the benefits contained in this legislation, would fail to pay for them in the future. But he’s not wrong that the phase-outs are essentially gimmickry with regard to the size of the bill. That is, Democrats certainly do intend (for example) to extend the child-care tax credit permanently, and pretending otherwise to meet Manchin’s 10-year spending cap is mostly just juggling numbers, not making real cuts in the original proposal. Which leaves Democrats a way back in. They’ve resisted choosing among the various items placed in the bill. Perhaps Manchin’s “no” on Sunday can be read as an ultimatum: Choose, or it’s over. That’s how some observers are reading it — and by Sunday afternoon, it appeared that some Democrats were responding to that reading of Manchin’s comments by selecting fewer things to fund but funding them for the full 10-year budget window.

Corporate donors gave to Manchin before announcement he wouldn't support Build Back Better: report -- Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) political action committee saw a surge of contributions from corporate donors in the fall before his announcement that he would not support President Biden’s Build Back Better social spending package. Biden unveiled the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Act in October. According to CNBC’s analysis of Federal Election Commission filings, Manchin’s leadership PAC, Country Roads, received 36 donations from corporations in the last two months and raised close to $260,000 in that time period. In November, Country Roads PAC received corporate contributions in the range of $2,500 to $5,000 from donors including American Express, Goldman Sachs, Lockheed Martin, UnitedHealth Group, Blue Cross Blue Shield and CNX Resources, a natural gas company, last month, according to the news outlet.The total amount raised last month amounted to $110,000. Manchin’s PAC raised over $150,000 in October from widely known corporations such as Verizon, Union Pacific, Wells Fargo and PACs tied to the coal and mining industries, according to CNBC. The news comes after Manchin announced on "Fox News Sunday” that he will not vote for Biden’s climate and social spending bill, most likely killing a crucial part of the administration's domestic agenda and top legislative priority. "I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there," Manchin told host Bret Baier. "This is a 'no' on this legislation."

Manchin hits back at White House pressure on Biden plan -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) hit back at White House staff Monday and warned that Democrats had miscalculated by thinking that they could pressure him into backing President Biden's spending plan."They figured surely to God we can move one person. We surely can badger and beat one person up. Surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable enough that they'll just say, 'OK I'll vote for anything,'" he said in a local radio interview."Well, guess what? I'm from West Virginia. I'm not from where they're from and they can just beat the living crap out of people and think they'll be submissive, period," Manchin added.Manchin's comments, made during a radio interview with West Virginia MetroNews's Hoppy Kercheval, come after he sent a jolt through Washington, D.C., on Sunday byannouncing that he would not votefor the sweeping roughly $2 trillion climate and spending bill that was passed by the House earlier this year.The senator's comments sparked quick outrage from his Democratic colleagues and a rare on-the-record rebuke from the White House, with press secretary Jen Psaki suggesting that Manchin had "reversed his position.""If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues," Psaki said in a lengthy statement.

Coal miners' union urges Manchin to reconsider opposition to Biden plan The United Mine Workers of America (UMWA), which represents West Virginia coal miners, urged Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday to revisit his opposition to President Biden's Build Back Better plan. The labor union noted that the bill includes an extension of a fund that provides benefits to coal miners suffering from black lung disease, which expires at the end of the year. The UMWA also touted tax incentives that encourage manufacturers to build facilities in coalfields that would employ thousands of miners who lost their jobs. “For those and other reasons, we are disappointed that the bill will not pass,” Cecil Roberts, the union’s president, said in a statement. “We urge Senator Manchin to revisit his opposition to this legislation and work with his colleagues to pass something that will help keep coal miners working, and have a meaningful impact on our members, their families, and their communities.” Manchin on Sunday announced that he would not support Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion climate and social spending bill, dooming its chances in the 50-50 Senate. He said that lawmakers should instead address inflation, the national debt and rising COVID-19 cases.

Democrats set to play hardball with Manchin -Senate Democrats are signaling they plan to take more of a hardball approach to pressuring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to support their climate and social spending agenda after months of kid-glove treatment failed to deliver his vote.Democrats are threatening to drive a wedge between Manchin and his many lower-income constituents who stand to reap billions of dollars in federal benefits if Build Back Better passes, including an enhanced child tax credit, lower Medicare-negotiated prescription drug prices and subsidies to cover the cost of child care. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday said Manchin will have to repeatedly defend his opposition to these popular programs by voting on the floor and took a subtle shot at his colleague for trying to dictate national policy through an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” over the weekend.Democratic aides say that Manchin can expect more tough treatment from Schumer and other Democratic lawmakers who are now under new pressure from the party’s base for failing to deliver on the “big, bold” agenda they promised earlier this year.“He has had absolutely no pressure,” said one Democratic aide, citing Manchin’s friendly meetings with the at the White House and at Biden’s home in Delaware this fall that failed to produce results.“Biden’s got to grab him by the lapels and say, ‘Listen, this ends now,’ ” the aide added, warning there’s little prospect of passing another piece of major legislation before the 2022 midterms if Build Back Better fails to pass.Democratic senators have said for months they were reluctant to apply too much pressure on Manchin for fear that it might backfire and only goad him to dig in his heels more firmly against progressive priorities such as major new investments for renewable energy and expanded Medicare benefits.There was also the looming threat that Manchin might leave the caucus and declare himself an independent. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters before the break that he would love to have Manchin join his caucus, though he acknowledged it wasn’t a likely possibility.But now Biden, Schumer and other Democrats risk looking ineffective after Manchin flatly spurned their many entreaties with his bluntly stated opposition to Build Back Better on Fox News.“He’s going to blow up the president’s agenda so I think you have to play hardball but there are different ways to play hardball,” said Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist who formerly advised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “He’s making them looking ineffective,” he added.

Democrats descend into finger-pointing after Build Back Better implodes - Finger-pointing consumed the Democratic party on Monday, one day after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced he would vote no on President Biden’s signature climate and social policy legislation, effectively derailing the president’s domestic agenda heading into a critical election year. There’s no shortage of Democrats piling on Manchin, whose ongoing concerns about the bill hung up negotiations in the 50-50 Senate for months. “I think what Sen. Manchin did yesterday represents such an egregious breach of the trust of the president,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “It’s an outcome we had warned about well over a month ago.” Another leader of the Progressive Caucus, Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), accused Manchin of abandoning suffering Americans and undermining Biden and the United States on the world stage after the president addressed a Scotland climate gathering and vowed action. “Build Back Better is about addressing the unprecedented challenges we are facing right now: a climate catastrophe, working families struggling to make ends meet, addressing inflation and giving everyday Americans a shot at prosperity. Walking away from BBB is essentially ignoring the crises in front of us that demand action,” Escobar told The Hill. “How will we be able to convince any of our global partners to trust us again or to do the right things on climate? To say this is calamitous for our planet would be an understatement.” But while much of the party’s frustration was aimed at Manchin, some Democrats on Capitol Hill voiced outrage with the White House for bungling the Build Back Better negotiations. For the better part of the year, White House officials struggled to manage a messy intraparty standoff between progressives and moderates over the timing and political tactics of how the Build Back Better bill and a separate infrastructure package would be passed. To break the stalemate, Biden promised progressives that if they cleared the way for the infrastructure bill, he would secure Manchin’s vote for Build Back Better. One Democratic lawmaker said Biden should never have overpromised to progressives, especially about backing big liberal priorities like paid family leave and expanded child tax credits that Manchin was privately rejecting.

Biden declines to say whether Manchin broke his commitment - President Biden refused to comment on whether Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., broke his commitment to the president to support the Build Back Better legislation. "Sen. Manchin and I are going to get something done," Biden said Tuesday when asked if Manchin had backed away from previous support for the plan. Biden's remarks came during an impromptu press conference following his address to the nation outlining his plans to combat the omicron variant, with reporters peppering the president with questions about his ongoing negotiations with Manchin. "Some people think maybe I'm not Irish because I don't hold a grudge," Biden said in response to another question about Manchin. "But I want to get things done. I still think there's a possibility of getting Build Back Better done." The exchanges come after a drama-filled week featuring the president and the West Virginia Democrat, with Biden releasing a statement singling out Manchin for the delay in passing his massive legislation, a move that reportedly helped prompt the senator to completely cut off negotiations with the White House. "I've done everything humanly possible," Manchin said during an appearance on Fox News over the weekend where he announced his opposition to Biden's plan. "When you have these things coming at you the way they are right now … I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation," he said. Manchin's public announcement outraged the White House, which fired off a statement accusing the senator of an "inexplicable reversal in his position."

Biden: ‘Sen. Manchin And I Are Going To Get Something Done’ - President Biden said this afternoon that his $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill is still alive, despite a hard public rejection from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) over the weekend."Some people think maybe I’m not Irish because I don’t hold a grudge," Biden said during a news event at the White House. "Look, I want to get things done. I still think there’s a possibility of getting Build Back Better done."Biden also seemed to pin blame on Manchin for the legislation falling apart over the last few days. House Democrats agreed to move forward with the separate bipartisan infrastructure bill earlier this year with the understanding that all 50 Democratic senators had agreed to a $1.7 trillion framework for a reconciliation bill that can skirt the Senate filibuster.But Manchin said on Fox News on Sunday that he would not vote to move forward on the reconciliation package that passed the House last month, potentially dealing a critical blow to the president’s climate ambitions."I’m told [Manchin] was speaking to the liberal caucus in the House and said, ‘Joe Biden didn’t mislead you, I misled you,’" Biden said.It’s not clear what Biden was referring to, and Manchin’s office did not immediately return a request for comment.Asked directly whether Manchin had kept his word, Biden said, "Sen. Manchin and I are going to get something done."Biden’s comments largely comport with the messaging coming from the White House and Capitol Hill in recent days, as Democrats digest the possibility that many of their priorities may not become law (E&E Daily, Dec. 21).

Manchin doubles down against reconciliation bill - West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin doubled down against Democrats’ climate change and social spending package today, saying his colleagues didn’t listen to his objections in recent months. In an interview on West Virginia’s MetroNews radio network, Manchin reiterated his contention that the latest $1.75 trillion version of the “Build Back Better Act” — with $555 billion for climate and related programs — though smaller by its top-line cost than previous proposals, is still not responsive to his concerns. “Inflation is the biggest threat I think we have right now,” Manchin told host Hoppy Kercheval in an interview this morning. “This changes so many categories in American culture, in American society. Revamps the entire tax code and revamps entire energy policies of our country and the social platforms that we use to support people,” he continued. Manchin said the bill would also greatly increase the national debt, a major threat to the country. “So I said, ‘Don’t you think we have to take another approach?’” Manchin told Kerchevan about his conversations with Democratic leaders and the White House. “’We’re in a 50-50 Senate. You all are approaching legislation as if you have 55 or 60 senators that are Democrats, and you can do whatever you want.’” Manchin said he wanted more provisions aimed at “holding people accountable” and objected to factors like the Child Tax Credit increase without a work requirement. He also expressed concern about tax credits for buying electric vehicles. “Why are we allowing someone that makes $500,000 to get a discount on an electric vehicle? That doesn’t make any sense to me,” he said. The comments align with Manchin’s interview on "Fox News Sunday” yesterday, in which he said he would not vote for the “Build Back Better Act" (E&E Daily. Dec. 20). “I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can’t,” he said. “I’ve tried everything humanly possible. I can’t get there. This is a no on this legislation." Manchin added some new details on the process this morning, including putting blame on White House staff for how he has been treated. “It’s not the president, it’s his staff,” Manchin told Kervechal. “They put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable,” the senator said, without elaborating.

Senate Draft of Build Back Better Reconciliation Bill–Currently Stalled by Sen. Manchin–Would Finance Nearly 1 Million Affordable Homes Over 10 Years Novogradac estimates that the Senate Finance Committee’s Dec. 11 revised section of the tax portion of the $1.7 trillion Build Back Better (BBB) reconciliation legislation would finance 944,900 affordable homes over 2022-2031.That figure includes an estimated 819,900 affordable rental homes from the bill’s primary low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) unit financing provisions, as well as the 125,000 affordable owner-occupied homes that the proposed neighborhood homes tax credit (NHTC) would finance.The main changes from the Nov. 19 House-passed version of BBB are:

• LIHTC: An extension of the 9% LIHTC allocation increases passed the House bill’s expiration in 2024 into 2025, but significantly lower allocation amounts during 2022-2024. The changes were revenue neutral, but given the lower allocation amounts in the early years of the 10-year budget window and the effect of inflation on development costs, the unit financing capacity of the allocation increase is reduced. See explanation below for further details.
• LIHTC: Technical changes to the 50% extremely low-income (ELI) basis boost proposal to facilitate implementation, but retains the same set-aside requirements and caps as in the House-passed version of BBB.
• NHTC: Allowing states to provide NHTC amounts worth up to 120% of the gap between selling price and the full cost of development (instead of 100% as drafted in the House-passed version of BBB), as long as states determine such amounts are needed for financial feasibility.

The rest of legislation’s affordable housing proposals, summarized in this Nov. 9 post, remain unchanged. However, Novogradac updated unit financing estimates for all of the proposals to reflect the latest inflation projections, as recent changes in inflation projections have had a material effect on these estimates.On Dec. 19, Sen. Manchin, D-West Virginia, announced he would vote no on the Senate BBB version as currently drafted, citing concerns about the overall cost of the legislation, its structure of temporary provisions and his opposition to specific proposals, such as paid family leave, among others. Given the universal opposition of Senate Republicans and 50-50 margins in the Senate, the lack of support from Manchin means the Senate BBB versionis stalled and will not advance unless significantly changed. It is unclear if Manchin opposes any of the affordable housing proposals, but such proposals may be at risk as Manchin negotiates the scope of the legislation and prioritizes other BBB proposals over affordable housing.Using calculations that include assumptions based on research conducted by the National Association of Home Builders, Novogradac estimates the 819,900 homes financed by the primary LIHTC unit financing provisions could house more than 1.9 million low-income people. Over a decade, the financing of these homes would also generate :

• more than 1.2 million jobs,
• nearly $138 billion in wages and business income, and
• nearly $48 billion in tax revenue.

That tax revenue generated is $35 billion more than the estimated $12.7 billion in federal cost, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. Through the financing of these additional affordable homes, the BBBA would go a long way in assisting the millions of low-income households who are cost burdened, cannot find affordable housing, or are experiencing homelessness.

Ocasio-Cortez: Democrats need to to 'crack down' on 'old boys club' in Senate - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Monday called on Democrats to "crack down on the Senate," which she likened to "an old boys club." The progressive lawmaker in an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" slammed the chamber’s inability to pass voting rights legislation because of GOP-led filibusters. Ocasio-Cortez has previously called on the Senate to abolish the filibuster, a move that moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have opposed. “What we really need to do is crack down on the Senate, which operates like an old boys club that has a couple of gals in it that have managed to break through, and we need to actually institute some, we actually need implementing institutional discipline,” Ocasio-Cortez said on Monday. “If people want to threaten to block ambassadorships, if they want to threaten dysfunction, they actually need to show up and do it, need to show up and do a talking filibuster, when — and by the way, that is a compromise because there shouldn't even be a filibuster in the first place. And they need to really make sure that we are actually calling people to her threats,” she added. The House has already passed the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, both of which have been stalled in the Senate because of GOP opposition.

Citizenship before partisanship: Is Manchin the ideal candidate for 2024? -- The gutsy decision by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to oppose the Biden administration’s Build Back Better (BBB) legislation has sent shockwaves through the political world. It did so not just because it sounded the death knell for the centerpiece of President Biden’s legislative agenda but because independent, thoughtful judgment — like that which Manchin demonstrated in making his decision — has become almost extinct in today’s politics. Votes in Congress are driven, more and more, by hardline ideology and narrow partisan politics. The bases of both parties allow little room for honest debate or thoughtful compromise. The battle lines are so rigid that I seriously doubt giants like Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill could have worked their celebrated compromises today — or even share drinks together, as they often did when Reagan was president and O’Neill (D-Mass.) was the speaker of the House. Manchin’s announcement brought down on him the full fury of the Democratic left led by socialist flag-bearer Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) of anti-Israel notoriety, and perennial left-winger Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). There were also White House press secretary Jen Psaki and anonymous Biden staffers, all labeling Joe Manchin as a liar and a hypocrite while simultaneously insisting that President Biden still considers Manchin his “close friend.” Talk about hypocrisy!But too many Republicans are in many ways similarly locked in and unyielding. America needs more Joe Manchins in public office. More independent patriots in the historic traditions of President Harry Truman, Sen. Henry “Scoop” Jackson (D-Wash.), former Democratic congressman and New York City mayor Ed Koch and Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.). More politicians who put country before party, and who are not constricted by ideological blinders. Leaders who support a strong military, who stand with the police, who realize that hardworking Americans are the backbone of our nation, and who do not want to turn America into some kind of socialist “paradise.”

Biden underwater on economy, jobs, other key issues: poll - Americans are not happy with the way that President Biden is handling the economy, jobs and other issues, according to a new poll from Morning Consult and Politico. Only 17 percent of participants surveyed in the poll "strongly approve" of how Biden has handled the economy while 40 percent "strongly disapprove" of the president's job. The survey results also showed that the economy and issued related to it were at the top of respondents' minds.Overall, 43 percent of respondents said that economic issues such as taxes, wages, jobs, unemployment and spending were their top issues when voting for members of Congress. Forty-six percent of those surveyed said it was more important for the government to address COVID-19, and another 46 percent said the same for the economy. Biden received similar levels support as on the economy when it came to his handling of jobs. Only 19 percent of participants strongly approving of his handling of jobs, compared to 34 percent who strongly disapproved. Twelve percent of respondents strongly approved of Biden's job on immigration, while 41 percent strongly disapproved of the president's work. The latest poll numbers come amid a period of high inflation in the U.S. The nation is also struggling to contain the spread of the omicron variant, first discovered in South Africa. The new strain of COVID-19 is believed to be more transmissible than the delta variant. It has now become the dominant strain in the United States. Biden did, however, receive slightly better marks for his handling of COVID-19. Twenty-four percent of poll participants said they strongly approved of his job handling the pandemic, and 35 percent strongly disapproved. Forty-three percent of people who took part in the survey approved of Biden’s performance in office overall compared to 53 percent who disapproved. Four percent said that they did not know or had no opinion. Morning Consult and Politico's poll included 1,998 registered voters and took place between Dec. 18 and Dec. 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 Biden signs off on 2.7% raise for federal employees - Federal employees will have a salary bump waiting for them next year.President Biden signed an executive order yesterday authorizing an across-the-board pay increase of 2.2 percent as well as a roughly 0.5 percent locality pay boost for government workers in 2022. Overall, civil servants will have an average pay increase of 2.7 percent.The boost will be effective on the first day of the pay period starting on or after Jan. 1, according to the order.Biden’s 2.7 percent increase is in line with his plan on pay adjustments he sent to Congress this August.In addition, it matches up with his budget proposal, which was released earlier this year, and is equal to what the U.S. military will receive, as well (Greenwire, Aug. 30).Biden is also giving a higher pay raise to federal employees than what they got this year. They received a 1 percent pay bump in 2021.Senior political appointees, however, will continue to have a pay freeze at least until next February, when government funding expires under a continuing resolution."Future Congressional action will determine whether the pay freeze continues beyond that date," Office of Personnel Management Director Kiran Ahuja said in a memo sent yesterday to agency heads.Federal employee groups welcomed the pay raise for government workers but said it lags behind the private sector as well as rising inflation this year. "It’s important to note that this pay raise was calculated based on the annual change in private sector wages and salaries a year ago, well before current inflation woes. That means Feds will see more in their paychecks but get less for their money next year," Ken Thomas, president of the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association, said in a statement.

Biden Declares Victory Over The Christmas Supply-Chain Crisis From The White House - President Joe Biden declared ahead of a White House task force meeting on Dec. 22, that his administration’s efforts to eliminate supply-chain bottlenecks ahead of the holiday season had succeeded. Biden met with his Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, which consisted of administration officials and the CEOs of large private-sector companies. The task force was established in June of this year to address the pandemic-induced global supply and inflation crisis. The White House said that the task force had made “significant progress to alleviate bottlenecks that are rooted in the global pandemic,” and that shipping container wait time has been cut in half. Among those attending the meeting were the CEO of FedEx, Fred Smith, Gap CEO Sonia Syngal, and American Association of Port Authorities CEO Christopher Connor, as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. “The much-predicted crisis didn’t occur,” Biden said. “Packages are moving, gifts are being delivered, shelves are not empty.” He said that shelves at grocery and drug stores were stocked at 90 percent of their full capacity, compared with 91 percent before the pandemic, and that deliveries were happening at a faster rate. Biden pointed to the administration’s progress after pushing for round-the-clock port operations and new transport rules at some of the nation’s biggest ports, including the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The two seaports handle about 40 percent of the nation’s imports, processing more than 765,000 containers in November, and over 9.3 million so far in 2021, a 15 percent increase from the record in 2018.

Biden administration eases restrictions on aid to Afghanistan -The Treasury Department on Wednesday announced it would ease restrictions on some humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan as the country faces a severe economic crisis following the Taliban takeover in August. The department issued three new general licenses that allow the U.S. government and international and humanitarian organizations to send more assistance to Afghanistan without running afoul of sanctions on the Taliban and the Haqqani network, which are designated terrorist organizations. The action expands the humanitarian assistance exempted from sanctions to include assistance that supports a range of activities including education, citizen participation, civil society development, noncommercial development projects benefiting the Afghan people and environmental and natural resource protection. “The United States is the largest single provider of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. We are committed to supporting the people of Afghanistan, which is why Treasury is taking these additional steps to facilitate assistance,” Deputy Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in a statement Thursday. “Unfortunately, the economy faces grave challenges, exacerbated by the country’s long dependence on foreign aid, donor and private sector flight sparked by the Taliban’s takeover, drought, structural macroeconomic issues, and the COVID-19 pandemic,” Adeyemo continued. “Treasury has provided broad authorizations that ensure NGOs, international organizations, and the U.S. government can continue to provide relief to those in need.” The move came amid sustained pressure on the Biden administration to do more to ward off an economic and humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The Treasury Department also released new resources about the general licenses that have been issued since August to allow for the continued flow of humanitarian aid and trade even with sanctions on the Taliban. During a call with reporters previewing the action, a senior Biden administration official said that the new license would allow assistance from humanitarian organizations to flow to pay teachers and potentially other civil servants without running afoul of current sanctions. The official said the administration would continue to engage in dialogue with humanitarian organizations to understand what else they need.

 Japan Agrees To Pay $9.2BN To Host US Troops Over Next 5 Years - The US and Japan reached an agreement on a new cost-sharing deal for Tokyo to continue hosting around 50,000 US troops.Under the deal, Japan will pay $9.2 billion to support the US presence over the next five years, an increase of about $650 million from what Tokyo has been paying. Negotiations for Japan to increase cost-sharing started under the Trump administration.The Japanese funds will cover the cost to pay Japanese staff working at the US military facilities, upgrades to the many US bases in the country, and to develop a system so Japan’s military can virtually join drills conducted in the United States.A Tuesday statement from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the following:"Bilateral defense cooperation under Host Nation Support will contribute to the enhancement of readiness and resiliency of the Alliance, including by improving the interoperability of U.S. forces and the Self-Defense Forces of Japan."With the US military now focused on China, the US presence in Japan is a vital part of the Pentagon’s strategy.The US is encouraging Japan to boost its own military, and Japan’s new prime minister is exploring options to give Tokyo the ability to launch attacks on other countries, which would require changing the country’s pacifist constitution.The US is also pushing Japan to increase military cooperation with other countries. Japan is a member of the Quad, an informal group that is viewed by hawks in Washington as a potential foundation for a NATO-style alliance in Asia. The other Quad members are the US, India, and Australia.

The Democrats Go Full Götterdämmerung as Manchin Makes DOA of BBB Official; Omicron Undermines Scapegoating the Unvaxxed by Yves Smith - In case you managed not to notice, Team Dem is in a very bad spot. It’s evident that the Obama-era strategy of treating better propaganda as the solution to every problem has run out of runway. Intra-party rifts and a global pandemic have made a mockery of grandiose Biden Administration incoming spin, like evocations of a Rooseveltian first one hundred days. The Democrats were already looking at a possible wipeout at the mid-terms. The odds of that have risen considerably in the last two weeks.Mind you, we’ve said for quite a while that the fact that Joe Manchin hadn’t voted for Biden’s ineptly branded Build Back Better bill after several attempts to get it across the line meant he wasn’t going to vote for it. The only thing that was surprising about Manchin’s statement on Fox Sunday that he would not support the bill now was that he apparently felt the need to Say Something…when he’d said a month ago that “I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation.”Oddly, only progressives called Manchin and Sinema out when they reneged on their earlier commitment to pass a then-bigger bill under reconciliation. And progressives were scolded for even mild efforts to move Manchin:And recall how Kamala Harris (and her minder) first bobbed and weaved when Charlemagnethagod tried to pin her down on Manchin’s roadblocking, and then point blank asked her about President Manchin, came off looking petty and defensive and looks even worse now in light of Manchin’s throat-clearing:But as we said repeatedly, Manchin’s body language has been clear for some time. Nevertheless, many press outlets took up the Administration theme that Manchin had acted in bad faith. Even though true, politics ain’t beanbag. For instance, from the Financial Times:But on Sunday morning, Manchin plunged a knife into Biden’s economic agenda — and his presidency — by spurning the legislation with a hastily scheduled Fox interview and a sneering statement about its shortcomings.“My concerns have only increased as the pandemic surges on, inflation rises and geopolitical uncertainty increases around the world,” Manchin said. “I have always said: ‘If I can’t go back home and explain it, I can’t vote for it’.”Manchin’s stand means the bill, which includes new social investments in areas such as childcare, measures to fight climate change, and a number of tax increases on the wealthy and large companies, is at serious risk of never passing Congress.This would be a huge blow to the domestic agenda of Biden and Democrats heading into next year’s midterm elections, and members of the president’s party from across its ideological spectrum were united in denouncing the coal-state senator.Or as reader Wukchumni put it: BBB going down in flames while student loan repayment will be soon reinforced is tantamount to a 14 point swing in a football game. You almost get the feeling the Donkey Show not only wants to be beaten to a pulp in November, but is hoping to get tarred & feathered too. Irate Democrats seem to think that Manchin is playing them…when as far as the headline number for the bill is concerned, Manchin is digging in over concerns about inflation, which are hitting lower and middle income voters hard. Never mind that he didn’t get the memo that these price increases are largely due to Covid whipsawing of suppliers like oil producers and chip makers, workers not keen about risking getting Covid, plus other supply chain issues. The Chicago School has done a great job of indoctrinating pols that too much government spending causes inflation….and don’t worry your heads about other things that might generate it.

Why America’s Military Leaders Need to be Purged - Posted by Yves Smith - Yves here. Andrew Bacevich makes a straightforward case that the US military has such a clear cut record of failure that most of its top brass should go. Of course, that view denies the truth articulated by departing president Dwight Eisenhower, that the US then was in thrall to a military-industrial complex. The purpose of the US armed forces has increasingly been not about preventing and only if really really necessary, winning wars, but to funnel funds to bloated defense contractors and more recently other grifters like mercenaries (like the how many times renamed company once knows as Blackwater) and surveillance state operators.The problem is this sorry condition exists across major American centers of power, like the health care industry and higher education. When Lambert and I were discussing the title of a recent post on the Democrats’ Götterdämmerung, he suggested the metaphor of the Jackpot, where 80% of all species die off in about 40 years. We agreed that was about the level of purge of Democratic party pols, consultants, and NGOs that was needed.Sadly the prospect of recovery seems remote because new leaders need to come from somewhere. And most of these organizations have enough insider-y knowledge that an import is likely to fail. Cue C. Northcote Parkinson:

Mind-Boggling White House Presser Deploys Covid Blame Cannons, Vaporizes “Public Health” (and Walensky Slays) by Lambert Strether - The nice thing about stooges is that there are three of them: Jeffrey Zients (Coordinator of the COVID-19 response in the Biden administration), Rochelle Walensky (CDC Director), and Anthony Fauci (Chief Medical Advisor to the President). Together, they held a virtual press conference on December 17, 2021. Here is the transcript. Frankly, I nearly lost it when I saw the quotes floating around the Twitter; so I determined to pull on my yellow waders once more. I should really cover the entire transcript, but I just… can’t. So I’ve picked out some salient passages and annotated them. As usual, paragraphs are numbered in bold, thus: (0). Notes are in square bracketes: [0]. Zeints: Our vaccines work against Omicron[1], especially for people who get booster shots[2] when they are eligible. If you are vaccinated, you could test positive[3]. But if you do get COVID, your case will likely be asymptomatic or mild[4].

• [1] Not necessarily. See “Breakthrough Infections with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Despite Booster Dose of mRNA Vaccine,” linked today.
• [2] We have plenty of data on breakthrough infections on the vaxed and the double-vaxed. Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren were infected and triple-vaxed.
• [3] Um, the word you’re looking for is “infected.”
• [4] On mild, the jury is still out.

(1) We are intent on not letting Omicron disrupt work and school[1] for the vaccinated[2]. You’ve done the right thing[3], and we[4] will get through this.

• [1] This has always been the priority. Even Andy Slavitt knows it didn’t have to be this way: “We can virtually eliminate the virus any time we decide to. We can be back to a reasonably normal existence: schools, travel, job growth, safer nursing homes and other settings. And we could do it in a matter of weeks. If we want to.” Do a hard lockdown, and pay people to stay home. Of course, we never did and never will.
• [2] Blame cannons deployed…
• [3] Biden has consistently failed to praise those who “did their part” with Non-Pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing and masking, let alone the construction of Corsi boxes.
• [4] Clearly the “we” doesn’t apply to all Americans. Lebensunwertes Leben is no way to run a public health care system.

(2) For the unvaccinated[1], you’re[1] looking at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you[4] may soon overwhelm. This is the sentence that almost made me stroke out. And a lot of other people, too.

• [1] Blame cannons, fire!
• [2] “The unvaccinated,” otherized as “you”, including people with chronic illnesses, the immune-compromised, children under 5, the pregnant and/or lactating, plus infants, the homeless or evicted, and prisoners, to name a few. That’s a lot of innocent bystanders to fire the blame cannons at. The Lancet: Public health implicates government obligations to realize the health of populations, focusing on “what we, as a society, do collectively to assure the conditions for people to be healthy” [[4]]. Securing public health does not merely reflect the health of many individual persons, rather a collective “public” good that is greater than the sum of its parts…. The current US approach continues to undermine the fundamental notion that all people are equal in dignity and rights. When the CDC Director speaks of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” [[10]], this implicitly assumes that those who become ill are responsible for their own suffering and that their deaths are acceptable—because they could have been vaccinated. These moral deficiencies reflect a larger neglect of collective responsibility, equity, and human rights in US public health policy. CDC guidance must consider the moral foundations of public health, providing a normative framework to support public health policy and practice. Not to mention the ghoulish public relations efforts of these three stooges.

Americans face a two-track pandemic — with very different risks --In a speech Tuesday, President Biden drew a stark distinction that has become all too clear to those who, like myself, treat COVID-19 patients regularly. What is occurring in the U.S. is a two-track pandemic:

• 1) The majority of the vaccinated are on a track devoid of risk for serious illness.
• 2) Those high-risk individuals who are not vaccinated are on a distinct track that entails a significant risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death, all the while holding hospital capacity hostage.

The goal of the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines that we now have, primarily, is to prevent serious illness, hospitalization and death. The goal has not been to prevent every illness like a magic forcefield. A mild infection that occurs post-vaccination is a victory, and the appearance of the omicron variant has laid bare the endgame that has been apparent, but poorly communicated, since the beginning of the vaccination program. SARS-CoV2 is the seventh human coronavirus discovered and four of those coronaviruses cause about 25 percent of cases of the common cold. Those coronaviruses routinely reinfect us and evade prior immunity quite easily. That the omicron variant evolved immune evasive properties that allow it to get around the protection afforded by vaccines and prior infection is not surprise to infectious disease physicians, microbiologists and epidemiologists. This is the natural biological progression. Immune evasion is not something to panic about because, in the vaccinated, protection against severe disease (conferred by other arms of the immune system such as T-cells) is able to almost entirely blunt the ability of the virus to cause significant health damage. Mild infections in vaccinated individuals — which constitute the majority of infections in this group — should be considered in a different light than severe infections, which principally occur in the unvaccinated. As Biden stated, those of us who are vaccinated face a very different fate when we are inevitably infected with SARS-CoV2 and that should not induce fear or major curtailments in our activities. The value of vaccination is that it allows one to more easily risk calculate and navigate the post-pandemic world in which COVID-19 will always be ever-present, but increasingly more manageable as the threat of severe disease no longer exists.

Biden assures Americans vaccinated against Covid-19 that they can go ahead with holiday plans despite Omicron surge - President Joe Biden aimed to reassure vaccinated Americans that they can still proceed with their holiday plans without fear of becoming seriously ill, announcing a number of new efforts to combat a surge of Covid-19 cases in the United States."I know some Americans are wondering if you can safely celebrate the holidays with your family and friends. The answer is, yes you can if you and those you celebrate with are vaccinated, particularly if you've gotten your booster shot," Biden said in a White House speech Tuesday.The speech, which came just days before Christmas, reflects Biden's renewed focus on the coronavirus pandemic as anxiety rises around the country at the steep spike in cases and concerns about whether new restrictive measures will be needed to limit the spread.Biden emphasized repeatedly throughout the speech that the current moment is different than March 2020, when the coronavirus solidified its grip on the US."The other question folks are asking is, 'Are we going back to March 2020?' ... The answer is absolutely no. No," Biden said.The President told vaccinated Americans they should feel comfortable celebrating the holidays as they planned if they take the proper precautions, but he also warned the tens of millions of Americans who have so far declined to get shots that they run a high risk of becoming ill or hospitalized. And he also invoked the name of his predecessor to encourage Americans to get their booster shot."I got my booster shot as soon as they were available," the President said, "and just the other day former President Trump announced he had gotten his booster shot.""It may be one of the few things he and I agree on," Biden added. "People with booster shots are highly protected. Join them, join us."

The Biden administration is lying: Scientists warned about Omicron threat --Amid a new wave of infections throughout the United States triggered by the Omicron variant of COVID-19, with lines at testing sites stretching for city blocks, Vice President Kamala Harris lied to the public by claiming that “scientists” and the White House could not have expected the rise of the dangerous new COVID-19 variant. “We didn’t see [the] Delta [variant of COVID-19] coming,” Harris said in an interview published by the Los Angeles Times on Friday. “I think most scientists did not—upon whose advice and direction we have relied—didn’t see Delta coming. We didn’t see Omicron coming. And that’s the nature of what this, this awful virus has been, which as it turns out, has mutations and variants.”Harris’s lie is aimed at evading responsibility for the catastrophic outcome of a policy of sacrificing human life for private profit. Harris and Biden take the public for fools, expecting that a favorable media will not take them to task.The world’s leading virologists, epidemiologists and health experts, however, excoriated Harris’s statement.“I personally warned” the White House “in Dec 2020, that variants were coming & we needed plans & action immediately,” wrote Rick Bright, a member of Biden’s COVID-19 transition advisory board. Bright wrote that he “Suggested measures to detect & slow the spread & need to update vaccines. They all knew. #NoSurprises”Bright, the former head of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, famously filed a whistleblower complaint condemning the Trump administration’s efforts to downplay the threat posed by COVID-19 and warned that “public health officials were fully aware of the emerging threat of COVID-19 by early January 2020.”Replying to Harris’ claim that no one knew the danger of new variants, virologist Angela Rasmussen replied, “‘We’ did. The leaders just didn’t listen.” Epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves added, “WE ALL SAW THIS COMING.”“Do you know what ‘we’ also warned about?” wrote virologist Kristian G. Anderson. “The need for vaccinating the world, while also ensuring the need for boosters. The need for better facemasks, provided free. The need for widespread, cheap, rapid testing.”Andersen was one of the loudest scientific voices warning about the dangers of new variants. In an article published in the Washington Post on October 18, Anderson warned, “I see nothing that suggests this virus is quieting down… I don’t think this virus is as transmissible as it can be.” World Health Organization COVID-19 technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove warned in that article, “We need to keep the respect for this virus… this virus still has quite a lot left in it.”

Biden administration doubles down on “vaccine-only” strategy as Omicron emerges as dominant strain in US -- The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is now the dominant strain in the US, according to a statement by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday. Omicron accounts for 73 percent of new infections, a staggering six-fold increase in only one week. In some parts of the country, including New York City, the variant already accounts for more than 90 percent of new cases. Amidst this massive surge in cases, US President Joe Biden is going on national television today to outline the administration’s response. His message will be clear: There will be no measures, outside of vaccination, to stop the spread of the virus. The principal preoccupation in the White House right now is the potential impact of the Omicron surge on Wall Street share values. On Monday, the major indices fell by about 1.2 percent, on concerns that the spread of infections throughout Europe and the United States will compel lockdowns, hamper travel and put a dent in Christmas shopping. Two weeks after insisting that there will be “no lockdowns” in response to Omicron, Biden’s task is to reassure the corporate and financial oligarchy that there will be no shift in policy. “We are intent on not letting Omicron disrupt work and school for the vaccinated,” stated White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeffrey Zients last Friday, in a preview of Biden’s remarks. “For the unvaccinated, you’re looking at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you may soon overwhelm.” A report in CNN on Saturday recounted discussions among administration officials on the necessity “to begin discussing publicly how to live alongside a virus that shows no signs of disappearing, a potentially stark shift in messaging for a White House that once touted ‘freedom from the virus.’” “We’re getting to the point now where … it’s about severity,” said Xavier Becerra, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, in a meeting with reporters last week. “It’s not about cases. It’s about severity.” Becerra’s statement is a declaration that there will no longer be any pretense of ending the pandemic. What has been the de facto policy of the ruling class—that COVID-19 must be allowed to become endemic—is now being openly proclaimed. The aim of official policy is not to prevent infection but to promote vaccination on the grounds that it will make infections less severe.

To Fight Omicron, Biden Plans Aid From Military and 500 Million Tests - The president is set to unveil his initiatives, which also include creating new federal testing sites and deploying federal vaccinators, in a speech on Tuesday. President Biden will announce new steps on Tuesday to confront a staggering surge in coronavirus cases, including readying 1,000 military medical professionals to help at overburdened hospitals, setting up new federal testing sites, deploying hundreds of federal vaccinators and buying 500 million rapid tests to distribute free to the public. …Mr. Biden will say that if people are vaccinated and follow other public health guidelines, including wearing masks in public places, “they should feel comfortable celebrating Christmas and the holidays” with their families, one of the officials said. But beneath those notes of assurance from the president is deep concern among his advisers — and public health experts — about the ability of the nation’s hospitals, which are already under great strain, to withstand an Omicron surge. Even if the variant ends up causing less severe disease and a relatively low percentage of those infected need to be hospitalized, experts say, the explosion in cases means it is still possible that hospitals will become overwhelmed. … Mr. Biden intends to direct his defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, to “ready an additional 1,000 service members — military doctors, nurses, paramedics and other medical personnel — to deploy to hospitals during January and February, as needed,” according to a fact sheet prepared by the White House. At the same time, Mr. Biden will announce that six federal emergency response teams, with more than 100 health professionals and paramedics, will deploy immediately to six states: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Hampshire and Vermont. Already, 300 federal medical workers have been deployed since Omicron was discovered in late November. Mr. Biden will also direct the Federal Emergency Management Agency to work with hospitals across the country to make plans to expand capacity. FEMA will also stand up new pop-up vaccination clinics, the officials said, to handle hundreds of additional vaccinations per week. The government is also sending ventilators to the states — last week, officials said, it sent 330 — and will have hundreds of ambulances and emergency medical teams, overseen by FEMA, at the ready “so that if one hospital fills up, they can transport patients to open beds in other facilities,” according to the fact sheet. It was not clear who would staff those teams, but the fact sheet said that even now, “30 paramedics are heading to New Hampshire, 30 to Vermont and 20 to Arizona, and 30 ambulances are headed to New York and eight to Maine.” …

Vaccinated and boosted US Senators Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker test positive for COVID -- Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker have both tested positive for COVID-19 and tweeted news of their diagnoses on Sunday. Warren, 72, was the first to announce her diagnosis and said her infection was mild and that she had both vaccine doses as well as her booster shot. 'I regularly test for COVID & while I tested negative earlier this week, today I tested positive with a breakthrough case,' the progressive Democrat wrote. 'Thankfully, I am only experiencing mild symptoms & am grateful for the protection provided against serious illness that comes from being vaccinated & boosted.' She used her Sunday announcement to make a public plea for people who haven't yet been inoculated to get it done. 'As cases increase across the country, I urge everyone who has not already done so to get the vaccine and the booster as soon as possible - together, we can save lives,' Warren wrote. Booker, 52, also made the public announcement only a few hours after Warren had confirmed her own diagnosis. US Senator Cory Booker also tested positive for the virus on Sunday despite being fully vaccinated and having received the booster shotBooker announced that he began feeling symptoms on Saturday but have only been relatively mild'I learned today that I tested positive for COVID-19 after first feeling symptoms on Saturday,' he said on Twitter.'My symptoms are relatively mild. I’m beyond grateful to have received two doses of vaccine and, more recently, a booster – I’m certain that without them I would be doing much worse.'The lawmakers' positive diagnosis comes as the newly discovered Omicron variant wreaks havoc across the world just as people ready to gather for the Christmas holiday.Warren became the ninety-second member of Congress to test positive for coronavirus since the pandemic began, making Booker the ninety-third. One lawmaker, GOP Rep. Ron Wright of Texas, died after a battle with COVID in February 2021. Representative-elect Luke Letlow died of the virus a week before he was due to take office.Warren's brother Don Reed Herring previously died last year after he had contracted the virus at the age of 86.

Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Jason Crow test positive for Covid-19 - Three Democratic members of Congress announced Sunday that they have breakthrough coronavirus infections. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey as well as Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado shared that they had tested positive for Covid-19 via tweets from their official accounts.They all reported having received Covid-19 booster shots and experiencing mild symptoms.Warren was on the Senate floor last week before the chamber went on recess, but CNN could not confirm that Booker was."I regularly test for COVID & while I tested negative earlier this week, today I tested positive with a breakthrough case. Thankfully, I am only experiencing mild symptoms & am grateful for the protection provided against serious illness that comes from being vaccinated & boosted," Warren tweeted. "As cases increase across the country, I urge everyone who has not already done so to get the vaccine and the booster as soon as possible - together, we can save lives." Crow tweeted that he "just returned from an official congressional delegation visit to Ukraine and tested positive for a breakthrough COVID infection." The announcements came as the emergence of the Omicron variant has thrust the nation -- and the White House -- back into an uncertain pandemic reality, posing both public health and political challenges.The US is now facing a resurgent coronavirus as the pandemic marches into its third year: The country was averaging 126,967 new cases per day as of Saturday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University -- up from an average of just more than 70,000 new cases per day at the beginning of November.

Larry Hogan tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case - Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday, becoming the latest high-ranking individual in the political world to come down with a breakthrough infection amid a nationwide surge in cases. Hogan wrote on Twitter Monday morning that he received a positive rapid test for COVID-19 during his “regular testing routine.” He said he is vaccinated and received a booster shot and is “feeling fine at the moment.” The governor also encouraged individuals to get vaccinated or receive the booster shot “as soon as possible” as the omicron strain “becomes more dominant.”

Gov. Tim Walz tests positive for COVID-19 -- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has tested positive for COVID-19 along with other members of his family, his office said Tuesday.Walz announced that he received a positive test result on Monday evening. First lady Gwen Walz also tested positive.“Thankfully, my son has mild symptoms, and Gwen and I have no symptoms,” Walz said in a statement Tuesday. “My son is vaccinated, and Gwen and I are vaccinated and have received our booster shots, and I am confident that these vaccines are protecting my family and me from serious illness.”The governor canceled a planned ceremonial bill signing on short notice Monday afternoon after learning his high school-aged son had tested positive earlier in the day. That led to other family members, including himself, being tested.None of the Walz family members are said to be experiencing serious symptoms. The results will put the family into isolation during the Christmas holiday. It’s possible Walz could show symptoms in the days ahead, but he plans to remain in quarantine until he’s in the clear.

Staffer who had contact with Biden tests positive for COVID-19 - President Biden tested negative for COVID-19 on Monday after having close contact with a White House staffer who subsequently tested positive for the virus. White House press secretary Jen Psaki disclosed the positive case in a statement Monday evening. Psaki said the midlevel staff member, who was not identified, spent 30 minutes with Biden on Air Force One on Friday on a trip from South Carolina to Philadelphia. The staffer is fully vaccinated and received his or her booster. The staffer tested negative before the trip but on Sunday began showing symptoms and tested positive for the virus on Monday, according to Psaki, who said that Biden was tested via a PCR test on Monday following the news and tested negative. Biden also received an antigen test on Sunday as part of regular testing, she said, which was also negative. “As CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] guidance does not require fully vaccinated people to quarantine after an exposure, the President will continue with his daily schedule,” Psaki said. Biden, who is 79, is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, having received the Pfizer vaccine, and received his booster shortly after federal government health officials authorized it in late September. He has kept a busy travel schedule, though the White House recently traded traditional holiday parties for holiday tours with eye an toward the more contagious omicron variant. During a press briefing earlier Monday, Psaki said that the White House anticipated breakthrough cases in the federal government but emphasized that 99 percent of White House staff are vaccinated, in compliance with Biden’s vaccine mandate for federal workers. She also said booster doses are strongly recommended on White House grounds but not required at this point.

Biden tests negative after close contact with positive staff member - President Joe Biden was exposed to a staff member who recently tested positive for COVID-19, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement Monday evening.Biden was near the staff member for about 30 minutes on Air Force One on Friday, during a trip to Philadelphia from South Carolina, according to Psaki.The staff member, who is fully vaccinated and boosted, tested negative Friday morning, but tested positive Monday, according to the White House.The president received an antigen test Sunday and a PCR test Monday, and both came back negative, Psaki said in a statement. He will receive another test Wednesday, she said. "As CDC guidance does not require fully vaccinated people to quarantine after an exposure, the president will continue with his daily schedule," Psaki said in a statement.

Barbara Lee tests positive for COVID-19 in latest breakthrough case Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) announced that she has tested positive for the novel coronavirus in a breakthrough case.In a statement on Tuesday, Lee shared that she has tested positive for COVID-19, saying she is experiencing “mild cold-like symptoms.” “This week, I received a breakthrough positive case COVID-19 result. Fortunately, I have only mild cold-like symptoms, but I know it could been much worse had I not been vaccinated and boosted,” Lee said in a statement. Lee also said that she has entered isolation and will follow guidelines and health protocols “to keep my loved ones, my staff, and my community safe.” Lee’s announcement comes after other lawmakers, including Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), announced that they tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

Now SIX members of Congress have COVID as DC infection rate spikes -Two more lawmakers announced on Tuesday they tested positive for COVID - despite being vaccinated - as Washington D.C. surpassed all other states in the nation in itscoronavirus infection rate.Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee of California and Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York announced their diagnoses, becoming the sixth lawmakers to receive a positive test result since Sunday. 'This week, I received a breakthrough positive COVID-19 test result. Fortunately, I have only mild cold-like symptoms. I know it could have been much worse had I not been vaccinated and boosted,' Lee said in a statement. 'After experiencing mild symptoms and a slight fever, Congresswoman Malliotakis, who is vaccinated, tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday. She is quarantining at home and is feeling well,' her office announced.The announcements come as Washington D.C.'s COVID cases rose by 369% in the past week, the largest gain in the nation, as the Omicron variant spreads across the nation. The number is based on a seven-day rolling average of daily new cases per 100,000 residents. Earlier Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania, announced that he, too, tested positive for COVID. 'He tested positive on Saturday,' his Communications Director Colleen Eagen Gerrity told Times News Online. She said Cartwright, who represents an area that includes Scranton, had received two vaccine shots. It was not known if he had received a booster shot.He is quarantining at home after experiencing flu-like symptoms. Democrat Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado announced he tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday night, hours after Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker tweeted news of their own diagnoses.The number of members of Congress who have tested positive for the virus since the start of the outbreak in 2020 has now surpassed 100, according to a list kept by PBS News Hour. The Senate and House have each gone home for its holiday recess, avoiding the chance of more transmission between lawmakers themselves, although many lawmakers hold events with constituents while away from Washington.

Southwest CEO tests positive for COVID after maskless Senate hearing - Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly has tested positive for COVID-19 after a high-profile Senate commerce committee hearing in Washington, D.C.Kelly, who recently announced plans to retire in early 2022, tested positive after experiencing mild symptoms, Southwest spokeswoman Brandy King said. She said he tested negative "multiple'' times before the Wednesday hearing. He is fully vaccinated and received the booster earlier this year, she said."Gary is doing well and currently resting at home,'' King said via email, adding that Kelly received his positive test result on Thursday.Kelly drew some criticism at the meeting for his comments about the effectiveness of mask wearing on planes. Masks are mandated on planes and in airports, and the federal policy was recently extended into March."I think the case is very strong that masks don't add much, if anything, in the air cabin environment," Kelly said during the hearing. "It is very safe and high-quality compared to any other indoor setting." Kelly and other top airline executives were not wearing masks during the meeting of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.In the interest of contact tracing, Kelly informed others who spoke at the hearing of his positive test.Sara Nelson, international president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, said she was notified by Kelly shortly after he tested positive and as she was returning to work after getting the booster.

Warren, Democrats ask federal government to resume tracking breakthrough cases -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and three other Democratic lawmakers are calling on the federal government to resume tracking all COVID-19 infections in fully vaccinated individuals, while also requesting that it provide racial and other demographic breakdowns for such cases. The group of lawmakers penned a letter to Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky on Tuesday asking that the department and agency “monitor, report, and address racial and other demographic disparities in COVID-19 breakthrough cases nationwide.” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) also signed the letter.The lawmakers said they are concerned that communities of color may be seeing a disproportionate number of COVID-19 breakthrough cases — as they note is happening with coronavirus infections and fatalities overall — but that they are “unable to identify and track racial disparities or other trends in these cases” without data collection.The group also said they are urging the CDC to “collect and monitor racial and other demographic data related to COVID-19 breakthrough cases nationwide” because experts have said additional data on breakthrough cases could supply important information about the spread of new variants in the U.S., including the omicron strain.The CDC announced in May that going forward it would only track COVID-19 breakthrough cases for infections that lead to hospitalization or death.According to the lawmakers, only four states report data pertaining to race and ethnicity for COVID-19 breakthrough cases.They said the limited pool of information that has been reported “suggest[s] the existence of racial and ethnic inequalities.” The letter cites data from King County, Wash., which the lawmakers say illustrates that hospitalization rates stemming from breakthrough cases are higher for Black, Indigenous and Pacific Islander individuals as compared to white residents.The lawmakers are now urging Becerra and Walensky to “resume collecting data on COVID-19 breakthrough infections nationwide with breakdowns by race, ethnicity, and other demographic characteristics and to make this data publicly available as soon as possible.” “Comprehensive data collection would allow experts to better understand patterns in breakthrough cases, identify COVID-19 variants earlier, and analyze the potential effect of compounding ‘racial and ethnic inequities in wealth, health, education, work, housing, and medical care’ on vaccine response,” they added.

 Fauci: If Your Family Member Is Unvaxx'd, Tell Them Not To Show Up - National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Dr. Anthony Fauci once again urged Americans who have unvaccinated family members to uninvite them to Christmas gatherings. Doing his level best to keep families segregated during the festive season, Fauci said the unjabbed shouldn’t be present at Christmas dinner or New Years Eve events. Fauci suggested that even those who are vaccinated and boosted should only travel to see “a member of the family that you have not seen for a long time” and only if they are also vaccinated and boosted. “If someone in your family is not vaccinated, should you ask them not to show up?” Fauci was asked by MSNBC host Alicia Menendez. “Yes, I would do that,” Fauci responded. “I think we’re dealing with a serious enough situation right now that if there’s an unvaccinated person, I would say, ‘I’m very sorry, but not this time, maybe another time when this is all over.'” Elsewhere in the interview, Fauci ominously warned the unvaccinated that the Omicron variant “is going to find you.”

Trump reveals he got COVID-19 booster shot; crowd boos him - Former President Donald Trump revealed he received a booster shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, drawing boos from a crowd in Dallas. Trump made the disclosure Sunday night during the final stop of “The History Tour,” a live interview show he has been doing with former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly. … While Trump has expressed opposition to vaccine mandates, he has long taken credit for the vaccines developed on his watch. At the same time, he has refused to urge his supporters to take them, even though Republicans remain far less likely than Democrats to be protected. … Trump had told the Wall Street Journal in a September interview that he “probably” wouldn’t get a booster shot. “I feel like I’m in good shape from that standpoint,” he told the paper. “I’ll look at stuff later on. I’m not against it, but it’s probably not for me.” The U.S. has been urging all eligible Americans to get booster shots as quickly as possible as the country faces a surge in the new, highly contagious omicron variant. Both Moderna and Pfizer have said that booster shots of their COVID-19 vaccines appear to offer protection against the new strain, which preliminary evidence suggests can better evade vaccines than previous versions. Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19 in October 2020, weeks before the presidential election, and received experimental monoclonal antibodies treatment. His former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, revealed in a book released this month that Trump was far sicker than the White House disclosed at the time. Before the booing, Trump on Sunday told the audience that they should “take credit” for the success of the vaccines developed while he was in office. “Look, we did something that was historic. We saved tens of millions of lives worldwide. We together, all of us — not me, we — we got a vaccine done, three vaccines done, and tremendous therapeutics” Trump said. “This was going to ravage the country far beyond what it is right now. Take credit for it. Take credit for it…. Don’t let them take it away. Don’t take it away from ourselves.”

 Trump Asks Supreme Court To Block Release Of White House Documents - Former President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to block the release of White House records that are being sought by the House Jan. 6 select committee. The request from the House Select Committee, which is led by Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), is “exceedingly broad” and an “unprecedented encroachment on executive privilege,” Trump’s lawyers argued on Thursday.. President Joe Biden previously declined to invoke executive privilege over the disputed records. Trump asked the justices to fully review the case and place a hold on a lower court decision that allowed the disclosure of the documents. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit earlier this month rejected Trump’s bid for executive privilege. But the U.S. appeals court also granted Trump’s request to temporarily halt the release of the documents. “The limited interest the Committee may have in immediately obtaining the requested records pales in comparison to President Trump’s interest in securing judicial review before he suffers irreparable harm,” Trump’s lawyers wrote Thursday. In arguing that executive privilege is warranted, his lawyers said (pdf) Trump “is more than an ordinary citizen” due to his prior role as president. “He is one of only five living Americans who, as former Presidents, are granted special authority to make determinations regarding the disclosure of records and communications created during their terms of office.” Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, in November also ruled against Trump and wouldn’t block the disclosure of records to the committee.

Retired US generals warn of 2024 election coup - In an op-ed commentary posted Friday on the website of the Washington Post, three retired US generals warn that the 2024 presidential election could lead to a political crisis dwarfing that of 2020, and a split by the military into rival camps. The three retired generals—Steven Anderson, Paul D. Eaton and Antonio M. Taguba—all veterans of the Iraq war and other US military conflicts around the world, declare that the approaching first anniversary of the January 6 attack on the Capitol should be the occasion for considering what could happen if the outcome of the 2024 presidential election is disputed. They urge the Pentagon to begin preparing now to counteract “the potential for lethal chaos inside our military … we are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time.” The measures would include stepped-up surveillance of military units to identify potential “mutineers.” The three generals, long retired after many decades in the Army, publicly opposed the Trump administration and aligned with the pro-Democratic Party wing of the military-intelligence apparatus. The op-ed outlines “[t]he potential for a total breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines—from the top of the chain to squad level … The idea of rogue units organizing among themselves to support the ‘rightful’ commander in chief cannot be dismissed. “Imagine competing commanders in chief—a newly reelected Biden giving orders, versus Trump (or another Trumpian figure) issuing orders as the head of a shadow government. Worse, imagine politicians at the state and federal levels illegally installing a losing candidate as president.” The three generals go on to elaborate a worst-case scenario of the internal and global consequences of such a conflict erupting in a divided military.

 HSBC fined $85 million for anti-money-laundering failings --The Financial Conduct Authority has fined a U.K. unit of HSBC Holdings 64 million pounds ($85 million) after finding “serious weaknesses” in the automated processes it used to monitor suspicious transactions, the latest example of the watchdog’s increasingly assertive stance against the firms it regulates. HSBC Bank failed to comply with money laundering regulations between 2010 and 2018 because its policies and procedures for two of its key automated transaction monitoring systems were “not appropriate or sufficiently risk sensitive,” the regulator said in a statement Friday. The FCA detailed a series of key failings in the bank’s monitoring software, which meant that suspicious transactions were not immediately identified and sent to U.K. authorities.

 Regulators see ‘real progress’ on Libor shift as deadline nears - Though the transition was moving slow just a few months ago, the banking industry is now making rapid progress on halting its use of the scandal-plagued London interbank offered rate, regulators said Friday. With a key year-end deadline looming, banks have told the Federal Reserve that a majority of their new business loans in the fourth quarter did not use Libor, a top Fed official said. “The transition away from Libor is advanced and accelerating, and our financial system will be more stable as a result,” Michael Gibson, who leads the Fed’s supervision and regulation division, said at a Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting.

A Bloomberg Column Says the Macho Culture and Risk-Taking on Wall Street Is Dead – in the Same Year that It Blew Up Archegos with 85 Percent Margin Loans --By Pam Martens --On Monday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulator of national banks, released its quarterly report on “Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities” which documented insane levels of risk at four federally-insured banks, which have merged themselves with Wall Street’s trading casinos to form Frankenbanks. The very next day, an opinion columnist at Bloomberg News, Jared Dillian, wrote a column lamenting the “loss of risk-taking” on Wall Street which he appears to blame on “excessive compliance and regulation.” The column was given the pity-party title: “The Wall Street That I Once Knew No Longer Exists.”Compare these two very disparate views of the reality on Wall Street today. The OCC’s report shares this:“The total notional amount of derivative contracts held by banks in the third quarter increased by $978.0 billion (0.5 percent) to $184.5 trillion from the previous quarter…The four banks with the most derivative activity hold 89.3 percent of all bank derivatives….” So let that sink in for a moment. Four banks, out of the thousands that exist in the U.S., hold 89.3 percent of $184.5 trillion in derivatives – or an unfathomable $164 trillionin the same derivatives that blew up Wall Street in 2008, requiring the largest bailout of Wall Street in U.S. history. Those four banks are JPMorgan Chase with $52.3 trillion in notional (face amount) derivatives; Goldman Sachs Bank USA with $48.3 trillion in notional derivatives (versus just $387 billion in assets); Citibank with $44.37 trillion in notional derivatives; and Bank of America with $19.6 trillion in notional derivatives. […] It should also be noted that this week marks the 9-month anniversary of the family office hedge fund, Archegos Capital Management, blowing up as a result of a handful of Wall Street banks providing it with as much as 85 percent margin loans through ginned up derivative contracts that disguised the true owner of heavily concentrated stock positions. That matter remains under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and, potentially, other regulators.No one with even a remote understanding of the brazen crimes that continue to take place on Wall Street could seriously believe that there is a “loss of risk-taking.” Bloomberg News provides this comment in the bio of the author of this column, Jared Dillian: “He may have a stake in the areas he writes about.”

JPMorgan’s Crime Wave Continues, Calling into Question the Justice Department’s Lax Settlement with the Bank Last Year --JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States. It also has the scandalous distinction of having admitted to five criminal felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice since 2014 and a breathtaking series of additional charges from other regulators. (See its Rap Sheet here.)On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission fined the securities unit of JPMorgan Chase $125 million for evading the ability of the SEC to adequately conduct its investigations of the bank because there was “firmwide” use by traders, supervisors and other personnel of non-official communications devices to conduct its business, while the firm failed to record and retain these messages as required by law.These new violations occurred despite similar conduct during the bank’s participation in the rigging of the foreign exchange market, which brought a criminal felony charge against the bank by the Justice Department in May of 2015. In that case, conspiring banks including JPMorgan Chase used Bloomberg electronic chat rooms, which they referred to as “The Cartel” or “The Mafia.” JPMorgan Chase admitted to the felony charge and received a Deferred Prosecution Agreement. It was also put on probation and required to cease and desist from further lawbreaking. But just last September 29, the Justice Department brought two more felony counts against the bank for rigging the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets. It was again handed a Deferred Prosecution Agreement and put on probation. It now appears that the Justice Department may have been denied access to the full scale of the wrongdoing since the bank is now admitting some messages on personal devices were destroyed. The SEC described the new violations as follows:“…JPMS [J.P. Morgan Securities LLC] admitted that from at least January 2018 through November 2020, its employees often communicated about securities business matters on their personal devices, using text messages, WhatsApp, and personal email accounts. None of these records were preserved by the firm as required by the federal securities laws. JPMS further admitted that these failures were firm-wide and that practices were not hidden within the firm. Indeed, supervisors, including managing directors and other senior supervisors – the very people responsible for implementing and ensuring compliance with JPMS’s policies and procedures – used their personal devices to communicate about the firm’s securities business. “JPMS received both subpoenas for documents and voluntary requests from SEC staff in numerous investigations during the time period that the firm failed to maintain required records. In responding to these subpoenas and requests, JPMS frequently did not search for relevant records contained on the personal devices of its employees. JPMS acknowledged that its recordkeeping failures deprived the SEC staff of timely access to evidence and potential sources of information for extended periods of time and in some instances permanently. As such, the firm’s actions meaningfully impacted the SEC’s ability to investigate potential violations of the federal securities laws.”

 JPMorgan bosses addicted to WhatsApp fuel $200 million in fines - JPMorgan Chase executives were supposed to make sure employee communications were archived for regulatory scrutiny. But for years, even the bosses were using their mobile phones to tap out work-related messages — a practice so pervasive that U.S. authorities dropped the hammer Friday, imposing $200 million in fines. The revelation that even “managing directors and other senior supervisors” had shrugged off surveillance duties by using platforms such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses helped prompt the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to impose unusually stiff penalties on the firm and its subsidiaries for record-keeping violations. Both agencies even extracted rare admissions from the largest U.S. bank that it broke rules — rather than letting the company settle without acknowledging wrongdoing. JPMorgan will pay a $125 million penalty to resolve the SEC’s case, while the CFTC fine is $75 million.

Fed approves First Citizens-CIT merger after long delay -The Federal Reserve approved a trio of regional bank mergers on Friday, including First Citizens BancShares’ acquisition of CIT Group, which has long been awaiting regulatory approval.The Fed signed off on the three mergers unanimously amid a broader fight in Washington over the bank merger approval process.The approval of the First Citizens-CIT deal, which is the biggest of the three mergers, ended a lengthy process at the Fed. The combination of North Carolina-based First Citizens and New York-based CIT Group would create a bank with about $111 billion in assets.

Rep. Waters to FDIC chair: Show legal basis for denying board vote — House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters called on the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to explain the legal reasoning used to disavow a vote by the Democratic majority on the agency's board of directors."I ask that you promptly cite the legal authority and provide any legal analysis that you are relying on in your attempt to unilaterally block the will of the majority of the FDIC Board to carry out the agency’s responsibilities," Waters wrote in a letter this week to FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump. Waters sent the letter nearly two weeks after the struggle for control of the FDIC’s policy agenda came to light. On Dec. 9, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra and FDIC board member Martin Gruenberg announced a vote — without McWilliams's approval — to solicit public comment about bank merger reviews.

California bank disobeys enforcement order by hiring new CEO - California’s top financial watchdog has issued a cease-and-desist order against Nano Banc, saying the $1.2 billion-asset bank violated a consent order signed earlier this year by replacing a slate of board members and appointing a new CEO without notifying state regulators. .The state’s Department of Financial Protection and Innovation issued an order in February that required the bank to improve its capital position and reduce its concentration of commercial real estate loans. The order also said that the Irvine, California, bank must obtain the regulator’s approval before announcing any senior management changes.The Federal Reserve also raised concerns in March about elevated concentrations of CRE loans, according to a March enforcement action from the agency.

Biden picks Citi executive, ex-Senate aide for GOP seats at CFTC - The Biden administration is planning to nominate a Citigroup lawyer and a former Republican Senate aide to fill the GOP’s two seats on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, setting the stage for the main U.S. derivatives regulator to be at full strength next year.The White House said in a statement that it’s set to select Summer Mersinger, who now serves as chief of staff to CFTC commissioner Dawn Stump, and Caroline Pham, a managing director at New York-based Citigroup, to join a key Wall Street regulator.The CFTC oversees much of the $610 trillion global derivatives market and has sway over the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry. Still, the regulator is currently down to just twocommissioners with the Senate yet to approve Christy Goldsmith Romero and Kristin Johnson to serve as Democratic commissioners. Rostin Behnam, who has been serving as acting chair since January, could be confirmed as soon as this month.

LendUp shuttering operations after reaching settlement with CFPB - The digital payday lender LendUp is shutting down operations after settling a lawsuit with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It's a major downfall for the Silicon Valley-backed lender, which had billed itself as an alternative to traditional payday lenders by offering to bring down borrowers’ interest rates on future loans as they paid back their prior ones. But LendUp repeatedly came under scrutiny from the CFPB, which said the company failed to live up to that promise to tens of thousands of customers — even after the agency penalized it in 2016. ‘

Capital One settles class-action cyber lawsuit for $190 million -- Capital One Financial agreed to pay $190 million to settle a class-action lawsuit that customers filed against the firm after a hacker broke into its cloud computing systems and stole their personal information. Representatives for those customers, Capital One and Amazon Web Services, the lender’s cloud provider, jointly asked Judge Anthony Trenga to pause proceedings while the court evaluates the agreement. The settlement will cover 98 million Americans, and Capital One said it is fully reserved for the amount. “While Capital One and AWS deny all liability, in the interest of avoiding the time, expense and uncertainty of continued litigation, plaintiffs and Capital One have executed a term sheet containing the essential terms of a class settlement that, if approved by this court, will fully resolve all claims brought by plaintiffs,” according to a filing with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.

Why bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme -- Bitcoin is off its all-time high of $69,000 set on November 9, 2021. It suffered a wrenching $12,000 flash crash over the first weekend in December, amid accounts of leveraged positions being closed out. And yet, even at the current price of $49,000, guests on financial TV news continue to tout it as the best-performing asset of the last N years, where N can be just about any number from one to ten. They also increasingly judge it as a credible investment in its own right.This contradicts the longstanding sceptical view by many economists and others that what bitcoin really is, in effect, is a Ponzi scheme. Brazilian computer scientist Jorge Stolfi is one voice who has contended this. His view is based on the following observations:

1. Investors buy in the expectation of profits.
2. That expectation is sustained by the profits of those that cash out.
3. But there is no external source for those profits; they come entirely from new investments.
4. And the operators take away a large portion of the money.

All of this rings true true. But in calling bitcoin a Ponzi scheme, critics are arguably being too kind on two counts. First, bitcoin doesn’t have the same endgame as a Ponzi scheme. Second, it constitutes a deeply negative sum game from a broad social perspective. On the first count, it’s worth assessing how it compares to the original scheme devised by Charles Ponzi. In 1920, Ponzi promised 50 per cent on a 45-day investment and managed to pay this to a number of investors. He suffered and managed to survive investor runs, until eventually the scheme collapsed less than a year into it.In the largest and probably the longest running Ponzi scheme in history, Bernie Madoff paid returns of around one per cent a month. He offered to cash out his scheme’s participants, both the original sum “invested” and the “return” thereon. As a result, the scheme could and did suffer a run; the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 led to a cascade of redemptions by participants and the scheme’s collapse.By contrast to investments with Madoff, Bitcoin is bought not as an income-earning asset but rather as a zero-coupon perpetual. In other words, it promises nothing as a running yield and never matures with a required terminal payment. It follows that it cannot suffer a run. The only way a holder of bitcoin can cash out is by a sale to someone else. Bitcoin’s collapse would look very different to that of Ponzi’s or Madoff’s scheme. One possible trigger could be the collapse of a big so-called stablecoin, that is, ersatz US dollars that have sprung up to provide a cash leg for cryptocurrency transactions. These “unregulated money market funds” have been sold as dollar stand-ins with safe assets that match their outstanding liabilities. Given the lack of regulation and disclosure, it is not hard to imagine a big stablecoin “breaking the buck”, as occurred with a regulated money market fund that held Lehman paper in 2008. This could so disrupt the whole ecology of crypto that there could be no bids for bitcoin. The market might close indefinitely. In its cashflow, bitcoin resembles a penny-stock pump-and-dump scheme more than a Ponzi scheme. In a pump-and-dump scheme, traders acquire basically worthless stock, talk it up and perhaps trade it among themselves at rising prices before unloading it on to those drawn in by the chatter and the price action. Like the pump-and-dump scheme, bitcoin taps into the pure desire for capital gains. Buyers cannot stand the sight of friends getting rich overnight: they suffer an acute fear of missing out (FOMO). In any case, bitcoin makes no promises and cannot end as a Ponzi scheme ends. With bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the game is to name the country whose electricity consumption equals that of all the puzzle-solvers (miners) who get to effect transactions and receive bitcoin in reward. Even if the electricity were priced to include its contribution to global warming (its “environmental externality”)—which presumably it mostly is not—this represents a real cost. How big a cost? At the beginning of 2021, Stolfi put the cumulative payments to bitcoin’s miners since 2009 at $15bn. At the then price of bitcoin, he put the increase in this sum at about $30m per day, which mostly pays for electricity. At today’s higher bitcoin prices, the hole is growing faster. About 900 new bitcoin a day require most of $45m a day in electricity. Thus, the negative sum in the bitcoin game is in tens of billions of dollars and rising at over a billion dollars per month. If the price of bitcoin collapses to zero, the gains of those who sold would fall short of the losses of holders by this growing sum. To liken bitcoin to a Ponzi scheme or a pump-and-dump scheme, both basically redistributive, is to flatter the cryptocurrency system. To conclude, an economic analysis of bitcoin must recognise its uniqueness in the history of manias. As an object of speculation, bitcoin is unprecedented in the degree to which there is no there there. This post-modern mania features big prices for entries on nobody’s spreadsheet. A zero-coupon perpetual has arrived not as a joke but as a trillion dollar asset. Unlike a Ponzi scheme, bitcoin cannot end in a run. In a crash, the holders of bitcoin will collectively have lost what they have paid the miners for their bitcoin. This sum may be not far from the sum originally invested with Madoff, after accounting for inflation. But bitcoin holders will have no one to pursue to recover this sum: it will simply have gone up in smoke, a social loss. The holders of bitcoin would then only wish it had been a Ponzi scheme.

 Credit unions seek regulator approval to hold crypto assets -- Credit unions are looking for approval to hold digital assets like Bitcoin directly, after a federal regulator clarified they can provide cryptocurrency services to customers by partnering with third parties. The National Credit Union Administration said in a letter published last week that credit unions with federally insured deposits can team up with third-party crypto service providers to allow their members to buy, sell and hold digital assets — as long as certain conditions are met. The guidance is indicative of a broader trend toward the traditional financial services industry increasingly embracing digital assets as the space grows and matures. The federal regulator’s recent letter confirms what many credit unions thought should be possible under existing rules, giving them the assurance they may need to move forward with partnerships, said Lance Noggle, senior director of advocacy for payments and cybersecurity at the Credit Union National Association.

Zelle is surprise lightning rod in CFPB's Big Tech inquiry The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's review of payment platforms has been focused on Silicon Valley technology giants. But the effort is also now highlighting fraud concerns about a bank-owned network: Zelle.In October, the CFPB announced an inquiry into Big Tech payment systems, ordering six of the largest tech firms to provide information about the business. The agency also sought public comment on payment models. But most of the roughly 70 letters received by Friday focused on Zelle, the peer-to-peer network owned by seven of the largest banks that competes with nonbank providers such as Venmo.Commenters complained that sophisticated scammers used fake identities to compel them to send money via Zelle. When they reported the fraud to Zelle's parent, the Scottsdale, Arizona-based fintech Early Warnings Services, they were told to contact their bank but many alleged their banks denied the fraud claims.

Remote electronic notarizations now legal in New York - New York has enacted the permanent use of remote electronic notarizations in the state.The legislation, introduced by State Sen. James Skoufis and Assemblywoman Nily Rozic in January, was signed into law on Wednesday by New York Gov. Kathleen Hochul. The new law builds upon an executive order issued by former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, allowing notarial acts to be handled digitally under certain conditions.“Reforming the antiquated process of notarization isn’t just a matter of efficiency, it’s about offering equitable access to this necessary service for those who are homebound or otherwise unable to engage a notary,” Skoufis said in a press release.

 CFPB, DOJ issue warning for mortgage servicers about military families - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Justice Department jointly penned a letter to mortgage servicers, reminding them of their obligations to military and veteran families who are exiting forbearance plans.In particular, active duty military families have extra protections under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act beyond those Congress enumerated when it created the COVID pandemic forbearance program in the CARES Act, the federal agencies' letter said. "The illegal foreclosures of military families in the last crisis was one of the financial industry's worst failures," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra in a press release. "The CFPB will be closely watching mortgage servicers and will hold them accountable for illegal tactics perpetrated against military families."

Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in November; Foreclosures at Record Low -- Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below). Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus. From Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue Steady Improvement; Active Foreclosures Fall to Yet Another Record Low Entering Final Month of 2021

• The national delinquency rate saw yet another month of steady improvement, with November’s 4.1% monthly decline matching the 18-month average rate of reduction
• Despite serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure) falling another 80,000 from October, over 1 million such delinquencies remain, 2.5 times more than at the start of the pandemic
• Both foreclosure starts (3,700) and active foreclosure inventory (132,000) hit new record lows in November as borrowers continue to work through available forbearance and loss mitigation options
• More than 800,000 forbearance exits have occurred over the past 60 days, with nearly 560,000 homeowners remaining in post-forbearance loss mitigation
• Given the size of this population, both serious delinquency and foreclosure metrics demand close attention as we enter 2022
• Prepayment activity (SMM) fell by 8.9% in November to hit its lowest level in 22 months, as rising 30-year rates continue to put downward pressure on refinance volumes
According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 4.1% in November compared to October and decreased 43% year-over-year.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in November --Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in November was 1.24%, down from 1.32% in October. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 2.75% in November 2020.  Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but are not reported to the credit bureaus.  Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed.  Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.09%, down from the peak of 0.20% in April 2021.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.67%" - Note: This is as of November 30th. From the MBA: MBA Loan Monitoring Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.67%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) new monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 39 basis points from 2.06% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 1.67% as of November 30, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 835,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 16 basis points to 0.76%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 42 basis points to 2.10%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 106 basis points to 3.94%.“The share of loans in forbearance in November declined – albeit at a slower pace than October – as borrowers continued to near the expiration of their forbearance plans and moved into permanent loan workout solutions,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis.Total loans serviced that were current (not delinquent or in foreclosure) as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) rose to 94.58% in November from 94.32% in October (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). Total completed loan workouts from 2020 and onward (repayment plans, loan deferrals/partial claims, loan modifications) that were current as a percent of total completed workouts declined to 83.69% last month from 84.04% in October.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The number of forbearance plans is decreasing rapidly recently since many homeowners have reached the end of the 18-month term.

MBA Updated Economic and Mortgage Forecasts --The MBA released their updated Economic and Mortgage forecasts. Their prior forecast (included with several others) is here: 2022 Housing Forecasts: Second Look. A few highlights:

• Total mortgage originations are expected to decrease to $2.61T in 2022, as more of the activity shifts to the purchase market.
- Refinance originations are expected to drop to $870B.
- Purchase originations are forecast to eclipse 2021’s record high and reach $1.74T, backed by strong housing demand and rising home prices and sales.
• Home-price growth is forecast to moderate to 5.1%.
• Mortgage rates are expected to rise throughout the year and reach 4.0% by December 2022.
• Economic growth is forecast to be at 4.0% in 2022, with the unemployment rate declining to 3.5% by the end of the year.

Housing Wire: "Move over Fannie, the non-QM loan is in the fast lane" -- CR Note: I've mentioned the increasing use of non-QM loans before. Here is an interesting article on non-QM loans By Bill Conroy at Housing Wire: Move over Fannie, the non-QM loan is in the fast lane. Some brief excerpts: The universe of non-QM single-family mortgage products is broad and difficult to define in a few words, but the definition matters because a huge slice of the borrowers in this non-QM category represent the heartbeat of the U.S. economy. Within its sweep are the self-employed as well as entrepreneurs who buy single-family investment properties — and who can’t qualify for a mortgage using traditional documentation, such as payroll income. As a result, they must rely on alternative documentation, including bank statements, assets or, in the case of rental properties, debt-service coverage ratios....Non-QM mortgages also go to a slice of borrowers facing credit challenges — such as a recent bankruptcy or slightly out-of-bounds credit scores. The loans may include interest-only, 40-year terms or other creative financing features often designed to lower monthly payments on the front-end of the mortgage — often with an eye toward refinancing or selling the property in the short-term future. The size of the market is relatively small (about $25 billion in 2021 but growing). And the underwriting is generally solid, but this will be a segment of mortgage lending to watch.

"Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher" -- From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Lower, But Could See Some Volatility This Week -For most lenders, mortgage rates edged slightly higher at the start of the holiday-shortened week. The exception would be among those lenders who made changes to their rate offerings on Friday afternoon in response to deteriorating market conditions. The unequivocal comparison would be with Friday morning's rates, in which case today's rates are higher.... Looking ahead, the bond market will be closed on Friday and open for only a half day on Thursday. Most mortgage lenders will not be updating rate sheets on Friday, and they will shy away from making big changes on Thursday unless massive market movement forces their hand.[30 year fixed 3.17%]

 Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – MBA -Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 17, 2021.... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications fell last week, driven by a 3 percent decline in purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase applications were down, while the average purchase loan increased for the second straight week to $416,200 – the second highest amount ever. The elevated loan size is an indication that activity is more on the higher end of the market,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Home-price appreciation growth remains faster than historical averages and inventory, particularly for starter homes, continues to trail strong demand.”Added Kan, “The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 3.27 percent – its lowest level in four weeks – and helped spur an increase in refinances across all loan types. FHA and VA refinances jumped 4 percent and 12 percent, respectively.”.. he average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.27 percent from 3.30 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.46 million in November --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Continue Upward, Increasing 1.9% in November - Existing-home sales rose in November, denoting three consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions reported growth in monthly sales, while the fourth region held steady in November. From a year-over-year perspective, only one region experienced a rise in sales as the three others saw home sales decline.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 1.9% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million in November. Sales fell 2.0% from a year ago (6.59 million in November 2020)....Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in November (6.46 million SAAR) were up 1.9% from last month and were 2.0% below the November 2020 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.11 million in November from 1.23 million in October. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 13.3% year-over-year in November compared to November 2020.Months of supply declined to 2.1 months in November from 2.3 months in October. This was above the consensus forecast.

Hot Air Comes Out of Condo Prices, But Not House Prices: Existing Home Sales Update Wolf Richter -  Sales of existing homes of all types – houses, condos, and co-ops – in November ticked up from October, but fell 2% from November last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million homes, the fourth month in a row of year-over-year declines, amid tight supply, according to data from the National Association of Realtors today (historic data via YCharts): The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in November of 6.46 million homes – well below the peaks during the 2004-2006 era – was composed of single-family house sales of 5.75 million (-2.2% year-over-year) and condo sales of 710,000 (unchanged year-over-year). By Region, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales dropped year-over-year in three of the four regions, with the South being the exception: Northwest (-11.6%), Midwest (-0.7%), South (+1.1%), and West (-3.6%). Rising mortgage rates. Part of the impetus to buy despite tight supply and ridiculous prices is the prospect of higher mortgage rates that is motivating people to try to lock in a mortgage at the current rate, no matter what the price of the home. Mortgage rates have already risen, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate going from 2.65% in January this year to 3.12% currently, according to Freddie Mac data. And they are expected to rise further next year. Even the NAR expects the average 30-year mortgage rate will hit 3.7% a year from now. Buying a home “now” to lock in a lower mortgage rate is a classic reaction to rising mortgage rates, also promoted by the real estate industry. This occurs early on in the rate-hike cycle, and then after rates rise to some pain level, sales volume dries up. Mortgage rates have risen even though the Fed is still engaging in QE (though it has cut the amount of QE and will end it entirely by mid-March) and has not yet raised its policy rates, though rate hikes are on the table for next year:

More Analysis on November Existing Home Sales --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.46 million in November = Excerpt: This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.This was the fourth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Sales will likely be down YoY in December and probably in January 2022 too since were exceptionally strong last Winter....  [and on inventory] Months-of-supply at 2.1 months is very low, but still above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. That record will be tested next month. We will probably see inventory at a new record low over the Winter. Inventory is currently at 1.11 million (according to the NAR), and the record low was 1.03 million in January and February of 2021.

New Home Sales at 744,000 Annual Rate in November -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 744 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly. Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent above the revised October rate of 662,000, but is 14.0 percent below the November 2020 estimate of 865,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in November to 6.5 months from 7.1 months in October. The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal). "The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 402,000. This represents a supply of 6.5 months at the current sales rate." The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In November 2021 (red column), 53 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in November. The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. This was below expectations of 766 thousand SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.

New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 110 thousand homes have not been started.   Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 6.5% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in 2020 - since sales in 2020 finished strong. This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will be down year-over-year again in December - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. ... The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 39 thousand in November, up from the record low of 33 thousand in March, April, May and July 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level. The inventory of new homes under construction is at 4.1 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. And a record 110 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.8 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices.

 Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown Manhattan Style, Year 6: Have Retail-Shop Rents Collapsed Enough Yet? - by Wolf Richter - The meltdown of street-level retail space along the 17 major shopping corridors in Manhattan – some of them world renown and immensely expensive – kicked off in 2015, and most of it happened before the pandemic. The pandemic dragged the meltdown into its sixth year. Landlords and retailers are trying to find their way in a new environment. And in the process the old sky-high rents of 2015 have collapsed. Since 2015, average asking rents in many retail corridors have collapsed by 50% to 73%, including in some of the most ridiculously expensive corridors. That 73% collapse in the average asking rent for street-level retail stores over the past six years occurred in the Times Square area – Broadway and 7th Avenue, between 42nd Street and 47th Street in Midtown – from $3,683 per square foot per year in the spring of 2015, to $998/sf in the fall of 2021, the lowest in over a decade, according to the Real Estate Board of New York’s newManhattan Retail Report. There were 16 stores available for rent:Despite the 73% collapse in average asking rents in the Times Square area, rents are still expensive. For example, the rent of a 2,000-square-foot store, at $998/sf per year, would amount to nearly $2 million per year. But that is down from $7.4 million per year in 2015, which is just ridiculous and had to blow up.A global luxury retailer catering to jet-lagged tourists would treat that kind of store as a showcase of its products, and would accept losses from that store as a form of promotional expense, while relying on its other stores to make money. But even that equation got hard to work out.Retail rents didn’t collapse in all shopping corridors. In a few, rents sank only moderately over those six years. And in one of them, the grand exception, retail rents have soared by 69% since 2015.Everyone is trying to sort out where to go from here. Landlords want to fill their stores, and some retailers want to open up shop, and there is enormous flexibility among landlords with rents, buildouts, and other incentives to make something happen.And for prospective tenants, Manhattan has gotten a lot less exorbitantly expensive – though it remains exorbitantly expensive, and the classic brick-and-mortar retail that can be replaced by ecommerce is being replaced by ecommerce, and different retail models need to be found.Manhattan’s street-level retail shops and service operations depend on a mix of residents, tourists, and commuting office workers.Tourists are coming back to the City, but not at pre-pandemic levels. The Times Square Alliance, cited by the REBNY, reported that the number of visitors to Time Square in October was still down by 26% from the average in 2019. What is happening to asking rents for street-level stores in the area is depicted in the chart above.Office workers are straggling back, but are still largely working from home, with office occupancy in the New York City metro still down about 65% from pre-pandemic levels, according to entry systems provider Kastle. Storefront vacancy rates in areas that are depending on office workers remain much higher than shopping corridors that service local residents.

Rite Aid follows CVS in announcing store closings - Rite Aid is set to close dozens of stores across the country in an effort to save around $25 million yearly. The company on Tuesday said it is closing 63 stores as part of a plan to "reduce costs, drive improved profitability and ensure that we have a healthy foundation to grow from," according to CNN. Rite Aid's announcement follows CVS Pharmacy's move to shut down nearly 900 stores over the next three years. Last month, CVS CEO Karen S. Lynch said it is "evaluating changes in population, consumer buying patterns and future health needs to ensure it has the right kinds of stores in the right locations for consumers and for the business." Rite Aid, which is smaller than competitors CVS and Walgreens, has started the process of remodeling stores and downsizing on products like household appliances and stationary in favor of more beauty and wellness items, CNN noted. Earlier this year, Walgreens also announced that it would begin closing some of its San Francisco locations due to organized retail theft in the city. Walgreens spokesperson Phil Caruso said at the time that theft in the city had increased to "five times our chain average." According to CNN, many people have replaced their trips to drugstores like Rite Aid and CVS with online purchases from Amazon or trips to other retailers including Walmart and Target.

As Used Car Prices Hit Another Record High, Here's What Goldman Thinks Happens Next -- Another month, another record (see prior records: here & here). New data shows used car prices continued to soar in the first half of December, suggesting inflation has been anything but transitory. The Manheim Index, the most recognized wholesale used-vehicle price index by financial and economic analysts, reported that the wholesale used car index rose 3.1% in the first 15 days of December compared to November. The overall index has jumped a mindboggling 48.9% from December 2020. "On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price gains through the first 15 days of December. Pickups had the smallest year-over-year gains, vans had the largest at 63.3%, and both non-luxury car segments outpaced the overall industry in seasonally adjusted price growth. Compared to November, SUVs and vans had the smallest growth in the first half of December, while compact cars had the largest gain," the report said. Heading into the new year, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius provided clients with an outlook on the automobile market. He expects "further increases in new and used car prices during the first quarter of 2022, but outlines "new car prices peak in Q2 (vs. Q1 previously) and used car prices peak in Q1 (vs. December 2021 previously)." Hatzius said cooling down auto markets will be a challenging task. Port congestion remains a significant problem and has only marginally improved in recent months. He said new outbreaks of the Omicron variant is a major risk to foreign automotive and semiconductor factories could derail the rebound in car production.

Biden Says Gas Prices Are "Coming Down To Historic Averages", There Is Just One Problem... Great News America! National Average Gas prices at the pump are down around 10c from their highs since all-conquering President Biden unleashed his cunning SPR-release plan to ease the pain in Americans' pocketbooks. Here's the infographic to provide it... Furthermore, President Biden gloated that "shelves are only empty because of that highly wanted gift," and added that "gas prices are coming down to historic averages." So let's go to the data... The average price for gas over the past 20 years is $2.77 which means at $3.29, Biden's price for Americans is 19% above average... It turns out gas prices at the pump follow a more-or-less predictable seasonal pattern and the current price of US gas has never, ever been higher for this time of year... And, while this will be hard to swallow for some religious zealots, gas prices are 29% above the average price for this time of year. Can we get a 'fact-check' please?

'Business Investment' Proxy Weakens In November, Durable Goods Orders Buoyed By Big Boeing Buy -A dark cloud hid over today's durable goods data. While the headline print was solid, the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, dropped 0.1% in preliminary November data (following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in October). This is only the second MoM drop since the COVID lockdown crisis... Graph Source: Bloomberg. The silver lining, as we noted above, was that orders for all durable goods (items meant to last at least three years) surged 2.5% from the prior month, reflecting a sharp rise in aircraft orders. That is the biggest jump since May. Graph Source: Bloomberg. The durables data showed bookings for commercial aircraft increased 34.1%. Boeing Co. reported 109 orders in November, up from 10 a month earlier. The government data on aircraft orders don’t always align exactly with the corporate figures. And also 'war is good' as Defense orders jumped 16.0% MoM... Graph Source: Bloomberg. Orders for motor vehicles rose 1%. Durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment increased 0.8%. Outside of the more volatile transportation categories, the report was mixed. Bookings for metals and communications equipment increased, while those for machinery, electrical equipment and computers eased. Finally, we note that unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, a measure of backlogs, rose 0.7% to the highest since Feb 2020...

LA Area Port Traffic: Disappointing Traffic in November - Note: Incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with numerous ships at anchor waiting to unload. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.8% in November compared to the rolling 12 months ending in October. Outbound traffic was down 2.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. 2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, will likely stay strong into 2022 (no break again in February or March).It is disappointing that traffic dipped in November compared to the previous months so there are quite a few ships still waiting to unload.Imports were down 10% YoY in November, and exports were down 22% YoY.

Escape From LA: More Container Business Flees To East Coast --If so many container ships are stuck in the Pacific Ocean, waiting for weeks for a berth in Los Angeles or Long Beach, why not reschedule calls to another port? Why not make like Kurt Russell as Snake Plissken in the circa-1996 film and “Escape from LA”? Liner networks use Panama Canal route to Atlantic to get around LA/LB congestion (Photo: ACP) It’s not that simple, given how much warehousing and transloading capacity is built around the Southern California gateway — and congestion is affecting every port in America. Even so, shippers and carriers are indeed moving to sidestep Los Angeles/Long Beach. In the ongoing battle for Asian imports between the West Coast and East Coast, the momentum is once again swinging back to the east. “November was the sixth straight month in a growing dichotomy in performance between the West Coast and East/Gulf Coast port ranges, with the latter performing markedly better,” wrote consultant John McCown in the new edition of the McCown Container Volume Observer. Containerized imports to the top West Coast ports fell 7.5% year on year in November, he reported. In contrast, imports to East/Gulf Coast ports rose 9.9%. McCown also tracked year-over-year changes in imports to West Coast versus East/Gulf Coast ports on a three-month trailing average basis. These numbers confirm a significant shift from the Pacific, reversing the switch in favor of the West Coast seen in the earlier months of the pandemic. American Shipper asked consultant Jon Monroe about the potential to switch ports and avert Los Angeles/Long Beach congestion. “It’s happening already,” said Monroe during a recent video interview.. “I can’t name specific companies, but I can tell you a company that’s got huge facilities on the West Coast that normally calls LA/LB has moved to Houston and set up a transload center there. “There are a lot of people saying, ‘Anywhere but LA’ — and yet you still see this long line of vessels coming in that are offloading in LA.

 Airline industry pushes for return to full capacity as Omicron explosion begins - Last Wednesday, CEOs representing major commercial airlines testified before the United States Senate Commerce Committee about their efforts to return air travel to full capacity following the historic crisis faced by the industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. The airline industry faced a massive business shortage after millions canceled flights in early 2020 as the pandemic first erupted. According to business analysts, the industry suffered a more than 95 percent drop in its business and financial losses totaling nearly $35 billion. The airline industry received $54 billion in federal stimulus money during the pandemic. Part of Congress’s record financial support to Wall Street and other corporations organized under the CARES Act was its massive Payroll Support Program, which paid companies to keep their workers on staff. Doug Parker, CEO of American Airlines, in Washington D.C. on September 17, 2020. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) “It’s not an exaggeration to say the [federal bailout] saved the airline industry, which Congress and the administration recognized as critical infrastructure that is as essential to the economy as it is unique,” said American Airlines CEO Doug Parker to the committee. Other CEOs, union officials and executives spoke in similarly glowing terms about the financial bailouts their industry received. With whatever restrictions remaining on social distancing having been lifted, holiday travel is expected to surge this year. AAA predicts that 109 million Americans will travel during this holiday season, 90 percent of the 2019 levels. The Washington Post recently noted “the travel industry is coming off a big Thanksgiving bounce... The more than 2.4 million screened the Sunday after Thanksgiving hit the highest daily tally since the pandemic began, according to TSA figures.” This comes in spite of the rapidly expanding winter surge, made immeasurably worse by the Omicron variant. In a public address Tuesday afternoon, President Biden rejected any new lockdowns of businesses and schools and even encouraged Americans not to cancel their Christmas travel plans. This will create the conditions for a massive public health disaster in the coming days and weeks, in which airports will become a major vector of transmission. Indeed, only hours after Biden’s speech, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported more than 288,000 new cases, the second highest single day total since the pandemic began.

Airlines cancel more than 400 holiday flights due to omicron impacts on crews -As pre-pandemic level crowds hit the airports for the holidays, three major U.S. airlines have been forced to proactively cancel more than 300 Christmas Eve flights due to the fast-spreading omicron variant of COVID-19.United Airlines has canceled 187 flights for Christmas Eve, as of Friday afternoon."The nationwide spike in omicron cases this week has had a direct impact on our flight crews and the people who run our operation," United said in a statement. "As a result, we've unfortunately had to cancel some flights and are notifying impacted customers in advance of them coming to the airport.""We're sorry for the disruption and are working hard to rebook as many people as possible and get them on their way for the holidays," the airline added.And it's not just United that's feeling the impact of the variant on crews.Delta Air Lines has canceled 167 flights for Christmas Eve. The airline says the "flight cancellations are due to a combination of issues, including but not limited to, potential inclement weather in some areas and the impact of the omicron variant.""Delta teams have exhausted all options and resources -- including rerouting and substitutions of aircraft and crews to cover scheduled flying -- before canceling around 90 flights for Friday," Delta said in a statement to ABC News. "We apologize to our customers for the delay in their holiday travel plans. Delta people are working hard to get them to where they need to be as quickly and as safely as possible on the next available flight."

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 205,000 - - The DOL reported:In the week ending December 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,0 00, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 206,000 to 205,000. The 4- week moving average was 206,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 203,750 to 203,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 206,000.The previous week was revised down.Regular state continued claims decreased to 1,859,000 (SA) from 1,867,000 (SA) the previous week.Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

What’s Holding Back Employment in the Recovery from the COVID-19 Pandemic?. Cleveland Fed: Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that five million jobs lost during the pandemic have not been recovered, but it is difficult to ascertain how many workers will return to available jobs. The Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey includes a detailed set of reasons for nonemployment, including households’ responses to the pandemic that provide a new perspective on reasons for not working. Among prime-age workers, reasons for nonemployment during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic have shifted substantially from mostly labor demand reasons to primarily labor supply inhibitors. At this point, most nonemployment is connected to three categories: sickness and concerns about COVID-19; child- and eldercare responsibilities; and the residual category “other reasons.” The persistence of these answers and the characteristics of individuals’ providing these answers point to barriers to fully recovering prior employment rates. The Household Pulse Survey shows that while the initial shock from the pandemic affected mostly labor demand, persistent supply-side barriers have kept previously employed people from returning to employment. There are various distinct reasons why people are not returning to employment, and the severity of these issues varies by demographic group. Some of these reasons for nonemployment point to persistent shifts in the labor force that may not resolve with the end of the pandemic. The lack of affordable and accessible childcare largely affects women with young children and will likely continue to keep some of these women out of the labor force even after the end of the pandemic because of the increased cost of childcare and the long-term job separations experienced by these mothers. Differences in virus fears and virus risks may make return to employment slower for Black workers, especially in areas with low vaccination rates. The largest category of reasons is “other reasons,” but lower-income and less-educated individuals are substantially overrepresented in this category. These individuals have long had lower workforce participation rates, and research on the benefits cliffs has revealed many situations in which increasing work can lower family incomes because of discrete cutoffs for other benefits. These distinct barriers all have different implications for the labor force and different solutions beyond ending the current public health crisis. By distinguishing which reasons for nonemployment are most limiting for each demographic group, we can better design policies that will help address specific issues for the populations most affected.

Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.6% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $90.4 billion (0.4 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $104.7 billion (0.6 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in November and Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; spending on services increased 0.5 percent and spending on goods decreased 0.8 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent. The November PCE price index increased 5.7 percent year-over-year and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.7 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations. Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 5.7% annual rate in Q4 2021. (Using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing at 4.2%).

Oops, Americans’ Big Pay Increases Got Run Over by Even Bigger Price Increases -The personal income of Americans from all sources – from wages, salaries, interest, dividends, rental income, unemployment compensation, stimulus checks, Social Security benefits, etc. – jumped by 0.4% in November from October, by 7.4% from a year ago, and by 11.7% from two years ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. This surely makes Americans feel good. But these feel-good aspects of inflation curdle when confronted with new prices.Adjusted for the worst inflation in 40 years, consumers’ personal income from all sources declined by 0.2% in November, the fourth month in a row of month-to-month declines, as Americans were unable to outrun this rampant inflation. Compared to a year ago, this “real” income from all sources was up by only 1.6%, and compared to two years ago, it was up 4.5%. That includes all the income from other sources, including government transfer payments. In a moment, we’re going to strip those out. Here’s income from all sources: not-adjusted for inflation (green line) and adjusted for inflation (red line). I set the starting point of the two indices at January 2019 with a value of 100. Note the yawning gap between income before inflation and income after inflation. That gap is going to get a lot bigger as we peel the onion. The grotesque gyrations of personal income last year and earlier this year are a result of the various stimulus payments and special unemployment benefits. Most of these pandemic-specials have now expired:

The Privilege of Staying Home: COVID and the Highly Skilled Workforce - The COVID pandemic changed the way we look at the privilege of mobility. If, before the pandemic, moving across borders was a perk of being highly skilled, then during the pandemic we have seen a new privilege emerge: immobility.Historically, mobility has been associated with two types of privilege, coming from financial or cultural capital. In other words, the wealthy or highly educated (or both) could enjoy lower-risk and relatively easier global mobility. Think about the ‘global professionals’ or ‘globally mobile elites’ or the ‘global race for talent’. Having either skills or money meant that the world was within reach and that the mobility limitations linked to a passport could be easier to overcome than for the rest of society.The pandemic that brought the world to a halt in 2020 exacerbated the privilege of mobility and underscored the importance of capital or skills, as all pandemics in history have done.In 2020, people who had either the capital or the skills that allowed them to be mobile while not suffering economically, hopped the planet to ride out the storm. Singapore, for example, became a popular hideout for the Asian super-rich, with its low infection rates and rather limited sanitary restrictions.Those without capital but with the right set of skills and a good internet connection could choose to benefit from new policy developments. For example, a digital nomad visa in Croatia allowed many mid-level, highly skilled migrants with precarious job status to achieve a lifestyle they would not be able to afford if they had stayed in super-expensive urban hot spots by working remotely. However, the pandemic brought about a new phenomenon: staying put on one’s own terms.The privilege of mobility turned into a privilege of immobility: choosing to stay immobile and still be safe. Those who could afford to do their jobs from home could do so – but only 25% of all workers in the US could actually work fully from home.The ability to work from home was also the result of either financial capital, or a specific skill set.Migrants who could do their jobs online could more easily keep working or find new jobs than those whose work requires their presence on location. This meant that highly skilled migrants in the so-called ‘non-essential’ occupations were less impacted by the lockdown than other groups.This privilege of immobility is also visible in the practice of hiring employees for positions across the world without them moving countries. Hiring remotely to virtual offices has become more palatable to employers, while the workers have adjusted to new requirements. This trend – the growth of remote work, spanning time zones – is one of the biggest unknowns of the post-pandemic labour market. Immobility has not always been experienced as a privilege by the highly skilled, however. For many highly skilled migrants hoping to move to a new country, the pandemic has meant difficult delays. In a prime destination for migration like Canada for example, immigration halved, leaving thousands of highly skilled migrants waiting for an unknown future.

COVID rapidly spreading through Detroit auto plants with reports of at least three deaths -COVID infections are spreading throughout Detroit area auto plants, with coworkers reporting at least three deaths in recent days. The state of Michigan, the center of the US auto industry, is seeing a seven-day average of 5,481 cases a day and 100 daily deaths, spurred on by the new Omicron variant. The dire situation in the factories is not being reported in the corporate media and is being deliberately concealed by the auto companies and the United Auto Workers union, which are collaborating to keep production going, no matter what the human cost. However, workers are exchanging information about outbreaks and deaths on social media and in discussions with the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter. Over the past few days, two notices were posted on UAW Local 1264 Facebook page about deaths at the Sterling Stamping Plant (SSP), a Stellantis (Chrysler) factory located just north of Detroit. On Saturday, a notice was posted on the death of Omie Smith, a first shift worker who, according to the post, was “not just a coworker but a friend to many” who worked at Sterling Stamping. On Monday, a funeral notice was posted on the union Facebook page for Kevin Andrew Railey, 51, reporting that he died on December 18. The notice was followed by several comments sending condolences to his family and warmly remembering Bailey. “I always enjoyed working with him,” read one, while another said, “I’ll miss our talks.” After the comment, “This one hurts,” a worker replied, “The last few have… you figure we spent years with these guys...“I was told Omie died from COVID,” a Sterling Stamping worker told the WSWS. “He used to be in a group that played chess on the first shift. They cover it up when someone dies of COVID. The new death [Railey] is also COVID-related. I blame the company. They have been negligent.””

Amazon's Only Warehouse In NYC Launches Plan To Unionize All Amazon Workers Everywhere - Progressives like AOC already succeeded in stopping Amazon from opening one of 2 new coastal "HQs" in Queens, mostly because the company retaliated against New York politicians who backed her push to cancel billions in Amazon tax credits with blatant misinformation like claiming the company was essentially being subsidized by state tax revenues (that's not how tax incentives work). But where are all the city's champagne socialists now that workers at a Staten Island Amazon distribution hub, the company's only one in NYC, are organizing the latest attempt to unionize an Amazon warehouse, while workers in Bessemer Alabama are gearing up for a re-vote now that one has been approved by the NLRB? To wit, the NYT reported Thursday that 2,500 workers at JFK8, the Staten Island facility, had signed a petition to unionize, and filed it with the NLRB. And instead of joining the Teamsters, like the workers in Bessemer are trying to do, workers at JFK8 are pushing to form their own union that they hope will be unique for Amazon, eventually attracting workers at other warehouses to join and start up their own labor-relations entity. The group first filed a petition in October to unionize in October, but withdrew it quickly after.

 Indoor dining may once again be too risky due to omicron, Bay Area health experts warn - Bob Wachter, one of the Bay Area’s leading health experts on COVID-19, is no longer dining indoors because of the highly infectious omicron variant. In a Twitter thread that went viral over the weekend, the UCSF Department of Medicine chair explained that indoor dining isn’t worth the risk for him even as San Francisco maintains a low case rate and high vaccination rate. Health experts have long maintained that indoor dining is among the riskiest activities during the pandemic because people must take their masks off to eat and drink. Meanwhile, Bay Area restaurants have started temporarily closing their dining rooms because of positive coronavirus cases among staff or simply out of an abundance of caution. Many people who have tested positive for the omicron variant have been vaccinated, though they are largely not experiencing severe symptons; the unvaccinated are still at the highest risk. To get a second opinion on the current safety of indoor restaurants, The Chronicle talked to Warner Greene, a virologist and senior investigator at the Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

DC state of emergency triggers mask and booster mandates - The mayor of Washington, DC, declared a state of emergency Monday amid a record number of new local COVID infections — triggering booster-shot and renewed mask mandates. All government workers in DC will need to have a booster shot, losing the option to test out of the mandate under the emergency step, said Mayor Muriel Bowser. “All employees, contractors, interns, and grantees of DC Government must be fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and must have a booster,” Bowser tweeted. A new indoor-mask mandate for the district also will go into effect at 6 a.m. Tuesday and continue at least through Jan. 31, Bowser said. The tighter restrictions come after DC reported two consecutive days of record-breaking new infections late last week, rising to 844 new cases Friday — the highest number recorded at any point during the pandemic. The Bowser administration also is extending DC public schools’ upcoming winter break by two days to allow for the testing of all pupils and teachers after the holidays.

New NY health commissioner tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case -New York Health Commissioner Mary Bassett tested positive for a COVID-19 breakthrough case on Monday. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced Bassett’s positive test during a news conference on Monday. Bassett is fully vaccinated, has received a booster shot and was “feeling fine” following her test, according to Hochul. The health commissioner took a rapid test before coming into contact with Hochul, which is in accordance with protocol.Hochul said Bassett, who assumed office on Dec. 1, would be taking another PCR test to confirm the positive result. Bassett left the office immediately after receiving a positive result, according to the governor.Hochul said “there’s no better time” for New Yorkers to be vaccinated, receive a booster shot and wear a mask, noting that based on early trends, symptoms in breakthrough cases “will not be very serious.” The Empire State is currently seeing a surge in cases driven in part by the highly mutated omicron variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced on Monday that the omicron variantaccounts for the majority of cases in the U.S., with 73.2 percent of infections linking back to the strain.New York has shattered its daily case record a number of times in recent days, as the virus continues to spread.The CDC says that while COVID-19 breakthrough cases are expected, fully vaccinated individuals who test positive for the virus are less likely to develop serious illness compared to people who have not been inoculated.

Truck driver boycott forces Colorado state to begin process to lower the 110-year sentence for young driver in 2019 crash - Within one week of the cruel 110-year prison sentencing of 26-year-old truck driver Rogel Aguilera-Mederos for a crash which killed four, the Colorado state government has been forced to backtrack in the face of powerful protests and a boycott of the state by truck drivers, supported by a mass online petition. While the size of the protest by drivers is unclear, hundreds and likely thousands of truck drivers have united in an organized boycott, refusing to deliver goods and drive into Colorado, posting videos on social media and sharing widely the #notruckscolorado hashtag and declaring their dedication to the justice for the driver, who was 23 years old at the time of the accident, caused when his brakes failed. Aguilera-Mederos’s emotional plea to the judge where he sobbed and begged for forgiveness has been met with a powerful determination by truck drivers and millions of workers who have come to his defense. Videos associated with the hashtag # NoTrucksToColorado have been viewed 11.4 million times, with thousands of comments of support pouring in from workers. One trucker wrote “Cross that state off my list to haul freight... people get less time for premeditated murder.” Another wrote “Truckers stand together and stand strong, we are a force to be reckoned with. The mainstream media will not give its undivided attention because they know we could bring the Govt to its knees if we just stand together for a cause.” With over 4.6 million signatures at the time of this writing, the Change.org petition calling for commutation as time served or for the granting of clemency for Aguilera-Medero has become the fastest growing campaign of the year on the petition site, and is the third-most signed petition in 2021. Aguilera-Mederos was found guilty on 27 counts and was sentenced to the minimum of 110 years under a Colorado law which says that so-called “crimes of violence” must run consecutively rather than concurrently when pertaining to a single incident. The anger toward the excessive sentencing has called into question before many the entire framework of punitive mandatory minimum sentencing. Adding insult to injury, it has been revealed that the prosecutor for the case, Kayla Wildeman, celebrated the harsh verdict, posting on social media that she was given a trophy of a semi truck brake shoe by Chief Deputy District Attorney Trevor Moritzky for attaining the 110 year sentence, calling it a “special gift.” The grotesque celebration of the excessive sentencing points to the brutality of the criminal justice system and the power of prosecutors in determining the extent of charges.

Thousands of federal inmates freed over COVID concerns don’t have to return to prison, DOJ announces --Thousands of federal inmates who were freed to curb the spread of COVID-19 will not have to return to prison when the health emergency ends, Justice Department officials announced Tuesday.The move reverses a January order issued by the previous Trump administration and affects nearly 5,000 convicts who will now be allowed to remain out of jail on home confinement. “Thousands of people on home confinement have reconnected with their families, have found gainful employment, and have followed the rules,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement Tuesday. “We will exercise our authority so that those who have made rehabilitative progress and complied with the conditions of home confinement, and who in the interests of justice should be given an opportunity to continue transitioning back to society, are not unnecessarily returned to prison.” The announcement impacts nearly 5,000 convicts who will remain in home confinement after the health emergency. The new ruling reinterprets the language of the CARES Act, the March 2020 coronavirus relief bill that allowed for prisoners to be transferred into home confinement. The inmates were selected based on several factors, including their vulnerability to the virus and their conduct behind bars. Sex offenders were not considered. The Biden administration’s Justice Department said in Tuesday’s 15-page memo that the bill was “most reasonably interpreted” to give Bureau of Prisons officials “discretion over which inmates to return to facilities and which to leave in home confinement at the end of the emergency period.

A patient at a care facility was in cardiac arrest. Paramedics refused to enter, citing covid restrictions. - When the police officer entered a room at a Southern California care facility last month, he found a panicked nurse performing chest compressions on a patient, body-camera footage shows. The patient was in cardiac arrest, and the staff did not have the proper equipment to help, according to a police report.But just outside the entrance of the building stood paramedics equipped with possible lifesaving tools. They had refused to cross the threshold, claiming it was against state coronavirus rules, according to the report.So the officer jumped into action, helping the staff push the bed, which was not on wheels, through the building and out the front door to the first responders from the Rialto Fire Department.The patient, who has not been identified by authorities, was taken to a nearby hospital, where he was pronounced dead. The officer’s five-minute body-camera video troubled city leaders, acting Fire chief Brian Park said in a statement Wednesday. In response, the fire department placed the paramedics on leave pending a third-party investigation, and the city council ordered the public release of the footage.“We want to have a thorough investigation, and the actions [of the paramedics], if they were not in any way in keeping with policy, or even if it was, it will be addressed,” Rialto Mayor Deborah Robertson said at a city council meeting last week.The paramedics outside the care facility might have been referencing an outdated April 2020 coronavirus memo from the San Bernardino County Fire Chiefs’ Association, which noted that “personnel responding to long-term care facilities” should take steps to “minimize any potential risk for exposure,” according to KTTV. One solution was for the dispatch centers to request the facility bring the patient outside. But the memo also said that if a patient cannot be moved, a first responder can enter and “interact with the patient.”

Prominent Mormon billionaire leaves church over LGBT rights, other social issues - A Utah billionaire who was a prominent member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints rebuked the church on Monday over its stance on LGBTQ rights and other social issues, The Associated Press reported."While most members are good people trying to do right, I believe the church is actively and currently doing harm in the world," Jeff T. Green wrote in a Monday letter to Russell M. Nelson, the church’s president. Green, the CEO and chairman of The Trade Desk, is believed to be one of the wealthiest people from Utah, making his exit from the Mormon church especially notable. "I believe the Mormon church has hindered global progress in women’s rights, civil rights and racial equality, and LGBTQ+ rights," Green wrote to Nelson. In addition to social issues, Green expressed concern about the church's financial dealings.Green noted that he has not been an active member of the church for more than 10 years; however, he said he wants to erase his membership from church records and make an official declaration against the faith.Eleven members of his family and a friend announced their formal resignation from the church alongside him, the AP noted. In addition to his rebuke of the church, Green will also donate $600,000 to Equality Utah, an LGBTQ advocacy group.

 A Woman Who Texted Her Boyfriend To Kill Himself Before His Suicide Has Pleaded Guilty To Manslaughter - A 23-year-old woman pleaded guilty to manslaughter on Thursday after repeatedly telling her boyfriend to kill himself, which he went on to do, while they were students at Boston College. Inyoung You's guilty plea showed she accepted responsibility that her verbal, physical, and psychological abuse contributed to the suicide of Alexander Urtula, the Suffolk County district attorney's office said. You had originally pleaded not guilty in 2019; under the new plea agreement, she received a suspended sentence. If she violates any of her probation terms over the next 10 years, she could serve two and a half years in jail.Among the terms of the agreement are that she will undergo mental health treatment and do community service. In addition, she may not profit from any portrayal of the case over the next 10 years. “This agreement with defense counsel was made in close consultation with the Urtula family. It is consistent with their desire to seek accountability and closure and to protect the legacy of Alexander, a loving son, brother, and uncle," Suffolk County District Attorney Rachael Rollins said in a statement. "They believe this is something Alexander would have wanted." The two began dating in late 2017 or early 2018, BuzzFeed News previously reported. Prosecutors alleged that You became abusive toward Urtula in late summer 2018 after she found out he lied about meeting with his ex-girlfriend.Prosecutors argued that You failed to stop her boyfriend even though she knew where he was and what he was going to do. They argued this made her “criminally responsible” for his suicide.Throughout You and Urtula's 18-month relationship, You sent many abusive texts to Urtula, often telling him to die by suicide. "do everyone a favor and go fucking kill yourself, you’re such a fucking stupid ass worthless shit," You texted 22-year-old Urtula,BuzzFeed News reported in 2019.

The CDC’s Flawed Case for Wearing Masks in School - The agency’s director has said, repeatedly, that schools without mask mandates have triple the risk of COVID outbreaks. That claim is based on very shaky science. The debate over child masking in schools boiled over again this fall, even above its ongoing high simmer. The approval in late October of COVID-19 vaccines for 5-to-11-year-olds was for many public-health experts anindication that mask mandates could finally be lifted. Yet with cases on the rise in much of the country, along with anxiety regarding the Omicron variant, other experts and some politicians have warned that plans to pull back on the policy should be put on hold. Scientists generally agree that, according to the research literature, wearing masks can help protect people from the coronavirus, but the precise extent of that protection, particularly in schools, remains unknown—and it might be very small. What data do exist have been interpreted into guidance in many different ways. The World Health Organization, for example, does not recommend masks for children under age 6. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommends against the use of masks for any children in primary school. Seen in this context, the CDC has taken an especially aggressive stance, recommending that all kids 2 and older should be masked in school. The agency has argued for this policy amid an atmosphere of persistent backlash and skepticism, but on September 26, its director, Rochelle Walensky, marched out a stunning new statistic: Speaking as a guest on CBS’s Face the Nation, she cited a study published two days earlier, which looked at data from about 1,000 public schools in Arizona. The ones that didn’t have mask mandates, she said, were 3.5 times as likely to experience COVID outbreaks as the ones that did. This estimated effect of mask requirements—far bigger than others in the research literature—would become a crucial talking point in the weeks to come. On September 28, during a White House briefing, Walensky brought up the 3.5 multiplier again; then she tweeted it that afternoon. In mid-October, with the school year in full swing, Walensky brought up the same statistic one more time. But the Arizona study at the center of the CDC’s back-to-school blitz turns out to have been profoundly misleading. “You can’t learn anything about the effects of school mask mandates from this study,” Jonathan Ketcham, a public-health economist at Arizona State University, told me. His view echoed the assessment of eight other experts who reviewed the research, and with whom I spoke for this article. Masks may well help prevent the spread of COVID, some of these experts told me, and there may well be contexts in which they should be required in schools. But the data being touted by the CDC—which showed a dramatic more-than-tripling of risk for unmasked students—ought to be excluded from this debate.

Six more Philadelphia schools switch to virtual learning as Omicron spreads -After teachers organized a wildcat sickout strike Monday that forced administrators to close Olney Charter High School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Monday, six more schools in the district have switched to virtual learning as the Omicron variant rips through the city and surrounding area. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Tuesday evening that there were 288,000 new cases throughout the country and that over 70 percent of them are from the Omicron variant, an indication of just how transmissible it is. The School District of Philadelphia announced that six schools are now on what they call a “pause” in which learning is done virtually. At one of the schools, the A. Philip Randolph Career Academy, the entire 9th grade class had been in quarantine before the school was forced to go virtual. The “pause” lasts for only 48 hours, and then the schools are set to reopen even as COVID-19 cases continue to skyrocket. Last week, Alayna Thach, a 17-year-old senior at Olney Charter High School, died after battling COVID-19 for the previous week. She is the 20th child under 18 years old to die from the virus in Pennsylvania, the result of the social policy of reopening schools before the pandemic is stopped. Friends, students and parents gathered Tuesday night for a memorial at a park near Alayna’s school to remember her life. The Pennsylvania Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee has been organizing for a switch to virtual learning as part of a massive public health campaign to stop the spread of COVID-19 and end the pandemic. “This is social murder,” said a teacher who is a member of the committee. “Schools should not have been reopened. We didn’t have any of the means of controlling the virus. Most of our students weren’t even vaccinated and the school rejected proposals for holding vaccine clinics.

Michigan legislature passes bill that would keep kids in schools without teachers -- A bill has passed the Michigan state legislature which would allow any school district employee with a high school diploma or equivalent to act as a substitute teacher through June 30, 2022. It now requires the signature of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, to become law.If Whitmer signs it, substitute teachers across the state will no longer be required to have a teaching certificate, nor a 2-year, 60-credit Associate’s Degree from a college or university, nor any personal knowledge or experience whatsoever in the subjects they are teaching.The State Senate passed the bill by a margin of 23–13, with the yes votes of 19 Republican senators and 4 Democrats.While clearly representing an attack on the right to high-quality public education, the legislation is most of all a blatant attempt to undermine teachers’ recent successful efforts to force the closure of schools to stop the spread of COVID-19, a situation which superintendents and state officials now refer to dishonestly as a “teacher shortage.”Notwithstanding official efforts to downplay the danger of the virus and pretend the pandemic is nearly over, Michigan is in the midst of its second Winter of Death. For the past two weeks, Michiganders have been dying from COVID-19 at a rate of more than 100 per day, in a state with a population of just under 10 million.On December 3, Michigan hit an all-time high of 11,186 daily new COVID-19 cases, exceeding the peaks reached either last winter, before vaccines had been developed, or in the spring when the more-contagious B.1.1.7 variant exploded in the state. Now, the even more contagious Omicron variant is spreading in Michigan and surging around the world. This variant has developed new properties in its spike protein which lets it infect people who have had two or even three vaccine shots.Last the American Association of Pediatrics (AAP) recorded 11 new deaths from COVID-19 among those age 19 and under. In Michigan, 29 children have now died from the disease since it first emerged.Under these conditions growing numbers of teachers in Michigan and across the US have refused to go in. Several districts were forced to extend the Thanksgiving break, which predictably resulted in an immediate reduction in the daily new case rate in Michigan. Other districts have reverted at least partially to virtual learning.The bill on Whitmer’s desk would empower districts to keep schools open in the face of such teacher opposition by essentially transforming other school staff into strike-breakers.According to the legislation, any school district employee with a high school diploma will be allowed to serve as a substitute teacher. Whitehall District Schools Superintendent Jerry McDowell told the Detroit Free Pressthat bus drivers could teach in between their morning and afternoon routes! This would represent the complete transformation of schools from institutions of learning into nothing more or less than holding pens for working class youth and cesspits of infection and community spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Climate change education is failing our youth - "What are you studying at Columbia?" my friend asks as she helps me pack for my move from North Dakota to New York City. "Climate and Society," I promptly respond. "What does that mean? What even isclimate change and why is it political?" My friend, who is a sixth-grade middle school teacher in Bismarck, waits for my answer. She was born and raised in my home state of North Dakota and has finished four years of college at North Dakota State University. Yet, she sincerely did not understand what climate change was or why I would dedicate a year of my life studying it. She only associates the words climate change as a point of contention in contemporary politics. I found this shocking since she is entrusted with educating the youth who will inherit an increasingly inhospitable planet.As the words of a prominent moral leader make it clear; climate change is a reality and immediate action is called for.And yet, my friend's ignorance of the situation we are facing and that her students are subject to is echoed throughout the country, evident in the limited climate change education taught by the more than 400,000 middle-and high-school science teachers throughout the United States. In 2016, the journal Science published the first peer-reviewed national survey of science teachers which investigated how the debate around anthropogenic climate change affects curricula. It discovered most middle- and high-school teachers incorporate only an hour or two of instruction about climate change over the course of an entire academic year. Thirty percent of teachers devoted less than an hour. Even more alarming, most teachers do not accurately understand climate science to teach it properly. The Yale Program on Climate Change reported 70 percent of middle school and 55 percent of high school science teachers do not recognize the scientific consensus on climate change. And according to the National Center for Science Education, 40 percent of teachers who integrate climate change into their science curriculum teach it inaccurately. With fewer than a third of middle school teachers and less than half of high school teachers educating their students on the human causes of climate change, it is clear the current educational curriculum covering climate change is failing our youth.

Biden mulling student loan freeze extension -White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Tuesday suggested President Biden could extend a pandemic freeze on student loan payments and interest accrual. During a Tuesday briefing at the White House, Psaki told reporters Biden has not yet decided whether he will allow millions of Americans to forgo student loan payments at no additional cost beyond Jan. 31.Biden in August extended an order initially issued by former President Trump in March 2020 to pause due payments and interest on federally held student loans through the end of next month. The administration said it would likely be the last extension of the order, and Psaki all but ruled out another extension in a press conference two weeks ago."We're still assessing the impact of the omicron variant, but a smooth transition back into repayment is a high priority for the administration,”Psaki said on Dec. 10.Even so, Biden has faced intense pressure from progressives not only to extend that pause, but also cancel a significant chunk of federally held student debt. Democratic lawmakers have warned Biden not to begin collecting debt payments as the economy braces for another potential hit from the pandemic amid an otherwise strong recovery.

As Pressure Mounts, Biden Considers Extending Pause of Student Loan Payments -The Biden administration is reportedly considering another extension of the federal student loan payment pause that is set to end on February 1, a shift that comes as the White House is facing growing pressure from progressive lawmakers and grassroots advocates.Politico‘s Michael Stratford reported Tuesday that the Education Department “says it may postpone” its plan to restart monthly student loan payments early in the new year.Such a move would be a significant reversal for the administration, which called its August decision to delay the resumption of payments until February 1 “a final extension of the pause on student loan repayment, interest, and collections.”The Education Department told Stratford that an announcement on the payment pause would come “later this week.” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday that “the president has not made a decision yet.”The Debt Collective, a group pushing for the cancellation of all outstanding federal student loan debt, tweeted in response that “an extension to the student loan pause means people can stay in their homes, put food on the table, save for retirement, take their medication or keep their business running.”“An extension would be a good, popular decision. You should do it,” the group added, directing its post at President Joe Biden. “Then cancel student debt.” Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) sent a similar message:Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also weighed in on the subject Tuesday afternoon.“Restarting student loan debt payments would take more than $85 billion dollars out of our economy next year,” Warren said in a tweet. “We’re still in a pandemic and people are still struggling. Biden shouldn’t restart payments and should use his authority to #CancelStudentDebt.”In recent days, White House officials have publicly indicated that there would not be another extension of the payment and interest pause. Psaki told reporters earlier this month that “a smooth transition back into repayment is a high priority for the administration.”But amid the surging Omicron variant and continued economic disruptions stemming from the pandemic, progressives have argued that restarting student loan payments would be a colossal mistake, imposing an additional financial burden on millions of people and potentially damaging Democrats’ hopes of keeping control of Congress.“This makes no sense,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) wrote on Twitter last week. “Instead of raising taxes on the ultra-rich, we are going to make students in debt pay to raise revenue. Awful on the substance and awful politics. We need to do better to deserve victory in 2022.”

 Biden Admin Extends Moratorium On Student Loan Payments Through May 1 -- The Biden administration on Wednesday announced the extension of a student loan moratorium - and will allow millions of Americans to continue putting off debt payments until May 1.The moratorium had previously been set to expire Jan 31.Under the action, interest rates will remain at 0% until the moratorium ends, and debt collection efforts will be suspended, according to NBC Washington."We know that millions of student loan borrowers are still coping with the impacts of the pandemic and need some more time before resuming payments," said Biden in a statement, adding that the financial recovery from the pandemic will take longer than job recovery, particularly for those with student debt.The omicron variant of COVID-19 that has swept through the U.S. with a fury has lent a new urgency to the question over whether the moratorium would be extended. Administration officials had initially said they expected the January extension to be the last. But even as the economy improves, there are concerns that borrowers are not ready to start payments again. Once the moratorium ends, those who were already behind on payments could have wages and benefits taken away as part of debt collection efforts. -NBC WashingtonThe moratorium applies to some 36 million Americans who have student loans held by the federal government, totaling a collective $1.37 trillion according to the latest data from the Department of Education. Around 1/3 of borrowers are in default or delinquency, while the average payment stands around $400 per month.

Crash Course: Injured Patients Who Sign ‘Letters of Protection’ May Face Huge Medical Bills and Risks -- Yves here. It is sickening to read about yet another medical scam. But what really got me in reading this case was a detail buried in the article: the crooked MD, Dr. Kingsley R. Chin, didn’t just do a spinal fusion, which is a procedure noted for its high cost and low success rate. He used an implant he’d designed. That business is fraudulent too. From a KHN story earlier this year:Chin has patented more than 40 pieces of such hardware, including doughnut-shaped plastic cages, titanium screws and other products used to repair spines — generating $100 million for his company SpineFrontier, according to government officials.Yet SpineFrontier’s success arose not from the quality of its goods, these officials say, but because it paid kickbacks to surgeons who agreed to implant the highly profitable devices in hundreds of patients.In March 2020, the Department of Justice accused Chin and SpineFrontier of illegally funneling more than $8 million to nearly three dozen spine surgeons through “sham consulting fees” that paid them handsomely for doing little or no work. Chin had no comment on the civil suit, one of more than a dozen he has faced as a spine surgeon and businessman. Chin and SpineFrontier have yet to file a response in court.And that’s before getting to the fact that medical devices are subject to much lower FDA approval standards than drugs. Chin is involved in so many sordid practices that his medical implant prosecution gets only a passing mention here.

Life expectancy in the US dropped by an astounding 1.8 years during the first year of the pandemic - During his live televised speech regarding Omicron’s dominance in the United States on Tuesday, President Joe Biden claimed that the country was in a far better position now than in March of 2020. This blatantly false assertion was exposed the next day when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that Americans’ life expectancy fell 1.8 years (from 78.8 to 77.0) in the course of 2020, 0.3 years more than their interim estimate of July 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic has been the cause of the most significant drop in life expectancy in the US since World War II, 75 years ago. Last year more than 3.3 million people died in the United States, the highest such number at any point in the country’s history. By comparison, in 2019 and 2018, 2.85 and 2.84 million died, respectively. COVID-19 deaths were attributable for three-quarters of the overall life expectancy decline in 2020 and 11 percent of annual deaths. By comparison, China’s life expectancy has climbed from 76.91 years in 2019 to 76.96 in 2020 and 77.13 in 2021. Their pursuit and strict adherence to a dynamic Zero COVID policy limited the death toll to 5,000 during the initial outbreak. Only three people have reportedly died of COVID-19 since April 2020, and as a consequence, it is likely that this year China, still a relatively poor country, will surpass the United States in life expectancy for its citizens. As a trigger event in world history, the pandemic magnifies every social contradiction of capitalism in its advanced state of decay. For instance, during the pandemic, the two-decades-long opioid crisis saw deaths jump 30 percent from 2019 to 2021 with deaths attributed to accidental overdoses exceeding 100,000. Still, as staggering as these statistics for 2020 are, 2021 has proven even more deadly. The US COVID-19 death toll by the last week of December 2020, according to the Economist, stood at 340,878 and excess deaths at 528,185. One year later, the magazine’s dashboard placed the COVID-19 reported deaths at 810,000 and excess deaths between 1.0–1.1 million. This suggests there will be an even more significant drop in life expectancy in the first year of Biden’s presidency than during the last year of Trump’s. According to a report published yesterday by USA Today, “Nationwide, nearly one million more Americans have died in 2020 and 2021 than in normal, pre-pandemic years, but about 800,000 deaths have been officially attributed to COVID-19, according to the CDC data. A majority of those additional 195,000 deaths are unidentified COVID-19 cases. Public health experts have long suggested [this], pointing to the unusual increase in deaths from natural causes.”

Over 1,000 children have died from COVID-19 in the United States -- At least 1,015 children ages 0–17 have died from COVID-19 in the United States, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The majority of these deaths, 515, have occurred in the past three and a half months since September 1, 2021, as a direct result of the Biden administration’s homicidal school reopening campaign this fall.  The breakdown of the data shows that 319 children ages 0–4, 213 ages 5–11, 240 ages 12–15 and 233 ages 16–17 have died from COVID-19. Additionally, the severe multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is also still rising, with the CDC now reporting 5,937 total cases and 52 total deaths. The weekly COVID-19 report from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) notes an additional 11 new child deaths recorded during the week ending December 16. Weekly new cases among children continue to rise, with 169,964 new cases recorded in the latest report, making it 19 consecutive weeks that well over 100,000 new cases were reported. As of December 16, the AAP notes that at least 7.4 million children have been infected with COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic. Despite such staggering numbers, the data is still a vast undercount of the real spread of COVID-19 among children in the US due to a lack of robust and systematic testing, contact tracing and reporting across the country, as well as other reported limitations of the CDC and AAP data. Notably, of the 802,969 reported total COVID-19 deaths in the US, 120,948 do not indicate the age of the individual. The CDC also notes a potential six-week delay in their case and death reporting due to a number of factors, including delays from processing death certificates and reports from states. Also worth noting are the limitations of the AAP report, which does not include data from four states in their cumulative death toll. Montana, New York (excluding New York City), Rhode Island and West Virginia do not release age distribution of deaths in their state reports. Michigan only recently began publicly reporting age distribution of deaths, adding a total of 29 child deaths in the state to the cumulative national death toll among children in the AAP report.

Men more likely to die of COVID than women, data shows -Men make up a disproportionately large share of U.S. COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 54.4 percent of fatal virus cases, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The sex split is even starker in New York City, where men make of 57.5 percent of COVID-19 deaths, according the city Department of Health. This despite men comprising only 49.3 percent of the U.S. population and just 47.7 percent of national COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. Some experts attribute the trend to men’s generally less healthy lifestyles and hesitancy to seek medical care. “It’s most likely a reflection of lifestyle factors, such as smoking and drinking,” said Dr. Jessica Justman, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. And “women are far more likely to go in for doctor’s appointments than men are.” She added, “I have a hunch that women are more likely to present with COVID symptoms at an earlier stage than men do.” That is, if a man with COVID waits until it’s very serious, then goes into the emergency room, he’s “less likely” to survive than had he sought care sooner. Other contributing factors to higher male mortality could include women’s relatively higher rate of vaccination, Justman said. According to CDC data, 62.9 percent of American women are fully-vaccinated, versus 58.7 percent of men.

Data Point to Millions More Unvaccinated - The U.S. government has over-counted the number of Americans who are at least partly vaccinated against the coronavirus, state officials warn, meaning millions more people are unprotected as the pandemic’s winter surge gathers steam.Last weekend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revised a bellwether metric -- the share of people 65 and older with at least one shot. The agency reduced the proportion from 99.9%, where it had been capped for weeks, to 95%, without changing its raw shot totals.

Breakthrough COVID-19 infections and deaths rose during delta, but far outpaced by the unvaccinated - - As Americans brace for the possibility of another difficult winter ahead in the nation’s fight against coronavirus, there is a renewed sense of urgency to get as many people inoculated and boosted as quickly as possible, given the emergence of the highly contagious omicron variant -- now dominant in the U.S. An ABC News analysis of federal and state data found that since July, there has been an acceleration of the number of breakthrough coronavirus cases, thus, of individuals who test positive after being fully vaccinated. While federal data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is incomplete, only accounting for a subset of states, the analysis found that between April and November, more than 16,700 vaccinated people had died -- the vast majority since the start of the delta variant's surge, earlier this summer. Similarly, nearly all – approximately 96% -- of the 1.8 million breakthrough cases – have come during the same time period. Comparatively, in those select states, at least 5.8 million unvaccinated Americans had tested positive, and just under 64,000 unvaccinated Americans had died, during the same time period. Despite the increase in coronavirus infections among vaccinated people, experts say vaccines are holding strong in their ability to dramatically reduce the risk of severe illness. "Just because you have a breakthrough infection doesn't mean the vaccine does not work and isn't giving you huge benefit,” Dr. Justin Lessler, professor of epidemiology at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told ABC News. The analysis of state data reveals that the percentages of fully vaccinated individuals testing positive, requiring hospitalization, or dying of coronavirus remain quite low when compared to the percentage of unvaccinated Americans experiencing severe illness because of the virus. Since the rollout began last winter, only a small fraction of fully vaccinated people in the United States have experienced a breakthrough infection, and an even smaller percentage have been hospitalized or died. "I think if you look at the data, it's clear the vaccine is working," Lessler said. Breakthrough infections captured by the available data have been predominantly still associated with the delta variant. However, as concerns grow over the potential impact of the omicron variant, preliminary data suggests the new variant may be more likely to cause infections among vaccinated people. Many vaccines lose their power over time and are not nearly as effective even initially as the COVID-19 vaccines. The tetanus vaccine, for example, requires a booster shot every 10 years. Other vaccines, like the flu shot -- which, according to the CDC, reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population -- are needed on a yearly basis.

CDC: Omicron now a majority of US COVID-19 cases — 73 percent -The omicron variant now makes up a majority of COVID-19 cases in the United States, at 73.2 percent, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in updated figures released on Monday. The statistics are for the week ending Dec. 18 and show the rapid spread of the variant in the U.S. That spike is a significant increase from just 12.6 percent of cases one week earlier. The omicron variant is highly transmissible, and officials are bracing for a large wave of infections in the coming weeks. However, people who are vaccinated, and especially those with booster shots, are well protected against severe disease from the variant, experts say, meaning the greatest risk is for the unvaccinated. President Biden will give a speech on Tuesday to update the nation on his plans for fighting the variant. The White House has emphasized that given the widespread availability of vaccines and booster shots there is no need to have business closures and lockdowns like there were last year. “This is not a speech about locking the country down,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “This is a speech outlining and being direct and clear with the American people about the benefit of being vaccinated, the steps we’re going to take to increase access and to increase testing and the risks posed to unvaccinated individuals.” Reports of long lines for testing and pharmacies sold out of rapid tests have surfaced ahead of the holidays and as the variant spreads. The White House took some criticism from experts in recent weeks for a plan to allow people to be reimbursed for rapid tests through their private health insurance, given that people would still have to pay an upfront cost, and the tests can still be hard to find. It is unclear exactly what Biden will announce on testing on Tuesday.

Omicron dominates new US COVID cases; first death reported - The World Health Organization (WHO) has said the Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading faster than the Delta strain and is causing infections in people already vaccinated or who have recovered from the COVID-19 disease.“There is now consistent evidence that Omicron is spreading significantly faster than the Delta variant,” the UN agency’s chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news briefing in Geneva on Monday.The warning came as health officials in the United States said that Omicron now accounts for 73.2 percent of new cases over the past week, and as the country’s first known death linked to the variant is reported in the state of Texas.Meanwhile, Israel has added the US to its “no-fly” list, citing concerns over the spread of the new variant.New Zealand also announced on Tuesday that it would delay its re-opening plans until the end of February fearing a rapid spread of Omicron. Here are the latest updates:

Moderna booster effective against omicron; new infections up 41% - Omicron has raced ahead of other variants and is now the dominant version of the coronavirus in the U.S., accounting for 73% of new infections last week, federal health officials said Monday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention numbers showed nearly a six-fold increase in omicron's share of infections in only one week. Overall, omicron is still a small percentage of all U.S. COVID cases. In the week that ended Dec. 11, omicron’s share of new infections in the U.S. increased to 2.9% from 0.4% the week before, the CDC previously reported. But CDC said they are revising some of the earlier numbers, after analyzing more specimens. The new numbers indicate that about 13% of the infections the week of Dec. 11 were omicron, and not 3%, CDC officials said. In much of the country, omicron's prevalence is even higher. It's responsible for an estimated 90% of new infections in the New York area, the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. Since the end of June, the delta variant has been the main version causing U.S. infections. As recently as the end of November, more than 99.5% of coronaviruses were delta, according to CDC data. Scientists in Africa first sounded the alarm about omicron less than a month ago and on Nov. 26 the World Health Organization designated it as a “variant of concern." The mutant has since shown up in about 90 countries. Much about the omicron variant remains unknown, including whether it causes more or less severe illness. Early studies suggest the vaccinated will need a booster shot for the best chance at preventing omicron infection but even without the extra dose, vaccination still should offer strong protection against severe illness and death.

Health expert: omicron may be as transmissible as measles --The omicron variant of the coronavirus may be as transmissible as diseases like the measles, a health expert warned Friday. Speaking with NY1 "News All Day" anchor Ruschell Boone, Dr. David Reich, president of Mount Sinai Hospital and Mount Sinai Queens, said colleagues who conduct research on infectious diseases are ringing the alarm bells over the new variant. "Some of my infectious disease colleagues say it appears to be as transmissible as diseases like measles, which are very transmissible,” Reich said. “So if children were in a classroom or people go to an event like a wedding or a larger party, it could spread to multiple individuals at the same time. So that's why a more transmissible variant such as omicron is of such great concern." Reich also stressed the importance of getting fully vaccinated, wearing masks and scaling back on public gatherings for now. The news comes as the city deals with another wave of coronavirus infections. According to the state health department, there were more than 21,000 new cases reported Friday, and 60 deaths statewide over the last two days. The city, meanwhile, saw 10,286 positive cases reported Friday, and 143 hospitalizations due to COVID on Wednesday.

Omicron is now the dominant U.S. COVID variant. Is it as contagious as measles? - With startling speed, the immensely contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus has become the dominant strain in the U.S. The omicron variant accounted for 73% of new infections in the United States last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — a sharp rise from 13% the prior week. In some places, such as New York, the prevalence of omicron is at over 90%, federal authorities said. Its prevalence is unclear in California, which has not updated its variant sequencing numbers since last Wednesday, when the state tallied just 49 omicron cases — a number that by now is certain to be vastly higher. “I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron,”Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director under President Barack Obama,tweeted Monday night. “It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time.” Dr. Jorge Salinas, a Stanford infectious disease expert, said omicron “couldn’t catch us at a worse moment” nationally, with pandemic fatigue high and Christmas just days away.He said he’d advise most people cancel their holiday plans, or severely curtail them.“I understand it’s Christmas in five days, but the virus doesn’t care if it’s Christmas or not,” he said, noting that among the big risks facing the Bay Area is that large numbers of people who perform critical functions — like cardiac surgeons — could become sick at the same time.Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, said there are “many parallels” between measles and more recent COVID-19 variants. Respiratory droplets from measles patients can remain airborne for up to two hours, he noted — which means a person can become infected by lingering virus in a room even if the initial person is no longer there.“Whether or not omicron can be as adept as measles in unbelievable transmissibility remains to be seen,” he wrote in an email. “Omicron is likely aerosolized the same way measles is — small droplets are created that can linger in the air like dandelions — and it will certainly give measles the toughest competition of any SARS CoV2 variant to date.”

Health officials warn omicron variant will cause record-high coronavirus cases, hospitalizations in U.S. - The Washington Post Top government health officials on Sunday warned that the United States will probably see record numbers of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations as the omicron variant spreads rapidly and forces Americans to again grapple with the dangers of a pandemic that has upended life around the globe. “Unfortunately, I think that that is going to happen. We are going to see a significant stress in some regions of the country on the hospital system, particularly in those areas where you have a low level of vaccination,” Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious-disease specialist, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked whether the United States could see record numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Fauci described the variant as “extraordinary” in its transmissibility, with a doubling time of two to three days. It accounts for 50 percent of coronavirus cases in parts of the country, which meant it would almost certainly take over as the dominant variant in the United States, he added. “It is going to be a tough few weeks, months, as we get deeper into the winter,” Fauci said. On CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said that cases will rise steeply over the next couple of weeks and that the country could soon see 1 million new cases a day tied to the omicron variant, dramatically exceeding the record of about 250,000 new cases per day set in January. “The big question is, are those million cases going to be sick enough to need health care and especially hospitalization?” Collins said. “We’re just holding our breath to see how severe this will be.” Health officials have continued to urge the unvaccinated to get their shots and those who have received only two doses of either the Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines to get booster doses. Vaccines cannot be the only layer of protection against the omicron variant, Fauci said, but defeating the pandemic would not be possible without them. Fauci and Collins painted a stark but realistic picture of the winter ahead, on the heels of a week of coronavirus-related setbacks. Coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths rose across much of the country last week, with officials warning of a surge just as millions of Americans — already weary after nearly two years of the pandemic — are expected to travel for Christmas and New Year’s. On Friday, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that coronavirus vaccines for children younger than 5 would be pushed back further into 2022, as the companies modified their trials to include a third dose. On Sunday, New York, one of the country’s early epicenters in the pandemic, reported 22,478 cases. There are still safe ways for vaccinated people to get together for the holidays, including wearing a mask while traveling, testing beforehand and knowing the vaccination status of everyone present at indoor celebrations, Fauci said on “Face the Nation.” “If you do these things, I do believe that you can feel quite comfortable with a family setting,” he said. “Nothing is 100 percent risk-free, but I think if you do the things that I just mentioned, you’d actually mitigate that risk enough to feel comfortable about being able to enjoy the holiday.”

Pandemic laws limit answers on COVID spread in hospitals - After Amanda Wilson lost her son, Braden, 15, to COVID-19 early this year, she tried to honor his memory. She put up a lending library box in his name. She plans to give the money she saved for his college education to other teens who love the arts and technology. But in one area, she hit a brick wall: attempting to force change at the California hospital where she believes her son contracted COVID in December 2020. While seeking treatment for a bleeding cyst, Braden was surrounded for hours by coughing patients in the emergency room, Wilson said. Yet, she said, she has been unable to get the hospital to show her improvements it told her it made or get a lawyer to take her case. “I was pretty shocked,” Wilson said. “There’s truly no recourse.” Throughout the pandemic, lawmakers from coast to coast have passed laws, declared emergency orders or activated state-of-emergency statutes that severely limited families’ ability to seek recourse for lapses in COVID-related care. Under such liability shields, legal advocates say, it’s nearly impossible to seek the legal accountability that can pry open information and drive systemic improvements to the infection-control practices that make hospitals safer for patients. “Lawsuits are there for accountability and truth to be exposed,” said Kate Miceli, state affairs counsel for the American Association for Justice, which advocates for plaintiff lawyers. “These laws are absolutely preventing that.” A previous KHN investigation documented that more than 10,000 people tested positive for COVID after they were hospitalized for something else in 2020. Yet many others, including Braden Wilson, are not counted in those numbers because they were discharged before testing positive. Still, the KHN findings are the only nationally publicly available data showing rates of patients who tested positive for COVID after admission into individual U.S. hospitals. Those who have lost a family member say hospitals need to be held more accountable. “My mom is not like one of those people who would say ‘Go sue them,’” said Kim Crail, who believes her 79-year-old mom contracted COVID during an eight-day stay at a hospital in Edgewood, Kentucky, because she tested positive less than 48 hours after leaving. “But she just wouldn’t want it to happen to anyone else.”

Outgoing NIH director warns that Omicron variant means “a million cases a day” by February - The newly retired director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, warned in an interview with NPR on Sunday of the potential for “a million coronavirus cases a day” in the United States as the Omicron variant continues to spread across the country. “We cannot afford to let down our guard,” Collins told NPR. “[T]he virus is not tired of us. It’s having a great old time changing its shape every couple of months, coming up with new variants and figuring out ways to be even more contagious.” He continued, commenting on Omicron’s 57 different mutations, that the emergence of the new variant is “almost like we’re starting over with a different virus than where we began.”  Three days before, a study was published by researchers from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium which echoed Collins’ warning. The report found that, assuming a sharp increase in cases similar to what has been happening in South Africa and the United Kingdom, there could soon be as many as 600,000 cases a day in the US. Both Collins’ estimate and the modeling from the University of Texas are staggering figures. They are suggesting a winter surge about three times as large, in terms of daily cases, as last year. The UT research also estimates peak hospitalizations capping out at just under 40,000 a day, and deaths exceeding 4,500 every day. Both figures are well above the rates of hospitalizations and deaths from last January, the worst month of the pandemic up to now. Such an oncoming storm of the Omicron variant in the United States has already begun. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that, as of December 11, 3 percent of cases in the United States were caused by the Omicron variant. The data implies that, as of a week ago, at least 3,500 of the 118,000 coronavirus cases in the US were caused by the Omicron variant, up from 580 out of 116,000 the previous week. This is a six-fold increase in only a week. In that time, the Omicron variant has spread to 45 states, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, and will likely be detected in the remaining states in the coming week. And as the data from the CDC makes clear, the spread of the variant in the US is mirroring that observed in South Africa, the United Kingdom and other countries. The number of new cases caused by Omicron is doubling every 1.5-3 days. Moreover, the emergence of the new variant has not significantly slowed the spread of the old. The vast majority of the 122,000 daily cases and all of the nearly 1,200 deaths in the US have been caused by the Delta variant, which continues to rampage across the Northeast and Midwest as winter sets in.

Omicron on the rise: Pandemic as a life lesson for the human species -- If we think of a disease as something that is sending us a message that we need to incorporate into our individual and collective lives, we get a much different view of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. So far, our attempts at integrating COVID-19 into our existence have been met with one surprising turn after another. The rapid rise of the Omicron variant is just the latest twist in the pandemic story. And, it follows the rise of the Delta variant which led to a previous new wave of infections.The Delta variant seemed to increase significantly so-called breakthrough infections, that is, COVID infections in people believed to be fully or partially vaccinated, something which has flummoxed the medical community and public health officials. Still, those receiving a vaccine have far lower rates of hospitalization and mortalitythan those catching COVID who have not been vaccinated.We don't yet have enough information to know just how well vaccines will fare against the Omicron variant. One early report is creating concern. Cornell University has closed its main campus in response to a rapid rise in COVID cases caused by the Omicron variant. And, this is a place where 97 percent of the people on campus are said to be "fully vaccinated."We do know that protection from COVID vaccines fades with time (usually within months) and hence the emerging recognition of the need for frequent boosters. And, the public now understands that vaccines neither guarantee freedom from infection nor prevent those vaccinated from spreading the virus even if they are asymptomatic. Risk of individual infection and community spread is considerably lower, but it is not zero. The easy-to-spread Omicron variant is doubling its cases every 1½ to 3 days.Against this backdrop I highlight two important facts that we know about COVID's effect on humans: 1) The mortality rate of those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, heart disease or obesity who contract COVID is about four times higher than those without such conditions and 2) around 40 percent of all COVID cases are asymptomatic.It's no surprise that those compromised by underlying conditions find their systems so overwhelmed that many of them die. What is not clear is why so many who are infected do not manifest symptoms. This would be a key question for public health researchers. So far they are interested in this group because controlling the spread of COVID is complicated by the fact that so many people infected with the virus do not know it. They are therefore far less likely to take the same steps that obviously sick persons take to protect others.But it would also be important to analyze the health habits, lifestyles, working conditions, demographics and other characteristics of this population to find out if there are patterns that shed light on their ability to withstand infection unfazed. This ought to be a key priority for public health. So why isn't it?

IHME projects 3 billion COVID-19 infections worldwide by March 2022 -In a startling assessment, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has projected that the world will see three billion COVID-19 infections over the next three months, nearly all of the highly transmissible Omicron variant. As many as 35 million people a day will contract COVID-19 during the month of January, the IHME projected, while the US peak would be as high as 1 million a day. The US share of total infections is projected at 140 million, nearly three times the number of infections officially reported since the beginning of the pandemic in January 2020. These figures are a stark warning to working people in America and throughout the world that capitalist governments are systematically lying about the pandemic. They are engaged in a desperate attempt to keep the financial markets afloat, no matter what the cost in disease and death. If such figures were openly discussed in the media—the IHME’s projection has been largely buried—the Biden administration and its counterparts around the world would be asked what they intend to do about such a massive and deadly danger. But they intend to do nothing. The IHME estimate is a projection based on the phenomenal increase in the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in its Omicron variant, in which the reproduction rate is double that of the Delta variant, and an even greater multiple of the infection rate of the original “wild” virus first identified in Wuhan, China. Dr. Christopher Murray, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington and director of the IHME, told a press briefing that the world would likely see “an enormous surge in infections” between now and the end of March. The 3 billion projected infections “is about the same number of infections that have occurred in the last two years, so we are having a compressed transmission cycle,” he added. According to figures presented at the White House coronavirus task force briefing Wednesday, Omicron accounted for 0.1 percent of all US COVID-19 infections just over three weeks ago, in the week ending November 27. The weekly figures climbed to 0.6 percent on December 4, 12.6 percent on December 11, and 73.2 percent on December 18—rising sixfold each week. The percentage rate is significant, but so is the spread of the pandemic overall. Omicron made up 0.1 percent of a much smaller number of cases. It reached 73.2 percent of a much larger number. On Tuesday and Wednesday total new cases topped 200,000 each day.Last winter’s surge peaked at 250,000 a day during January 2021. The IHME projects that reported infections will top 400,000 during January 2022, while the actual number will rapidly exceed 1 million a day. .

Omicron spread 'truly unprecedented,' Fauci says - White House medical advisor Anthony Fauci said Tuesday the rate at which the omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading is "truly unprecedented." Fauci, who serves as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, told ABC’s “Good Morning America” the way omicron cases are rapidly rising is “really extremely unusual,” noting cases are doubling every two days in the U.S. "It's a doubling time of two to three days, closer to two days,” Fauci said. “Which means that if you start off with a few percentage of the isolates being omicron, and you do the math and double that every couple of days, it's not surprising that just a week or two ago we had only 8% to 10%, and now we have 73% of all the isolates are omicron.” “That's truly unprecedented in the rapidity with which a virus spreads,” he added. Our country is in a historic fight against the coronavirus. Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. But Fauci said health officials are hopeful the new cases related to the variant decline as quickly as they have risen. "When you have something that goes up this quickly, often you see it come right back down. Because what will happen is that almost everyone is either going to get infected, particularly the unvaccinated, or be vaccinated," he said. Recent CDC modeling indicates that omicron cases could peak in January at higher levels than previous strains. Outgoing director of the National Institutes of Health, Francis Collins, said on Sunday the U.S. could potentially see cases nearing 1 million per day without adequate mitigation strategies. “Even if it has a somewhat lower risk of severity, we could be having a million cases a day if we’re not really attentive to all of those mitigation strategies,” Collins told NPR’s “Weekend Edition.” “And you know a small fraction of a big number is still a really big number.”

Omicron is spreading at an alarming rate, and there’s no solid evidence it’s ‘milder’ - Once again we have seen a new variant of the Covid virus emerge, and health officials are warily eyeing the data from around the world. With Omicron, a key question is whether infections are as severe as those caused by previous variants. Many are speculating that it could be inherently milder, especially after several preliminary reports from South Africa seemed to suggest fewer hospitalisations and less severe symptoms.In my opinion this judgment is premature. Especially in such a rapidly changing situation.Accurately estimating the severity of a new infection is a nightmare. Especially at such an early stage. However, there are some things we should keep in mind when evaluating the numbers coming in.Looking at the severity of infections in South Africa, it is important to remember differences in populations. South Africa has a younger population overall, and Covid in younger age groups has been consistently milder than in older ones. There is also the issue of time, and how long it takes for people to fall ill and get sick enough to require care, and for those numbers to be reported. We are still only a few weeks into this newest wave.Similarly, we do expect infections in a highly vaccinated population such as that of the UK to be milder overall, because vaccination is expected to protect against severe illness. However, that is little comfort to those who have been unvaccinated for various reasons, or otherwise unable to mount a robust immune response after vaccination. The surge of Omicron makes it more likely such people will be exposed. Indeed, because Omicron appears to spread even more quickly than previous variants, we need to be cautious even if breakthrough infections are only occasionally severe, because there are going to be so many breakthrough infections. The ultimate number of severe outcomes is determined by the number of opportunities the virus gets to cause them, which is the result of infectiousness. This is one reason why the Alpha variant wreaked such havoc last winter. You cannot simply compare Omicron with Delta by adding up the numbers of cases and hospitalisations for each over a short timeframe. The numbers of Omicron cases have been growing faster – much faster – than those of Delta, and it takes time for people to become seriously ill. To accurately gauge the severity, we will need to compare the numbers of cases that end up in hospitalisation or death. Mortality is often assessed as death within 28 days of diagnosis, and Omicron was reported to the WHO less than 28 days ago. We cannot afford to wait to find out exactly how dangerous it is.

Risk of infection on planes doubled with omicron: report - The leading medical adviser to a group representing nearly 300 airlines said in a new interview that aircraft passengers are two or three times more likely to be infected with COVID-19 on a flight since the emergence of the omicron variant. "Whatever the risk was with delta, we would have to assume the risk would be two to three times greater with omicron, just as we’ve seen in other environments," David Powell, physician and medical adviser to the International Air Transport Association, told Bloomberg News. He added that "it’s just that the relative risk has probably increased, just as the relative risk of going to the supermarket or catching a bus has increased with omicron." Powell advised that travel in business class could be safer than economy, noting that passengers should avoid face-to-face contact and commonly touched surfaces, according to Bloomberg."The greatest protection you can give yourself is to be vaccinated and boosted," he said. "The protection that you give yourself from an extra mask or a different type of mask, or not flying at all, frankly, is probably less than the benefit you would get from just being fully boosted."Powell's guidance comes as the omicron variant, which was discovered in South Africa last month, has become the dominant strain in the U.S. amid an increase of COVID-19 infections. With surges in holiday travel looming, some Democrats have urged federal agencies to mandate that airline passengers provide proof of COVID-19 vaccination or a negative test before traveling on domestic flights. “Ensuring the health and safety of air travelers and their destination communities is critical to mitigating the ongoing COVID-19 surge, especially as the virus continues to evolve,” Democratic lawmakers wrote in a letter to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky and Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Steve Dickson.

How Long Does Omicron Take to Make You Sick? - The new variant seems to be our quickest one yet. That makes it harder to catch with the tests we have. It certainly might not seem like it given the pandemic mayhem we’ve had, but the original form of SARS-CoV-2 was a bit of a slowpoke. After infiltrating our bodies, the virus would typically brew for about five or six days before symptoms kicked in. In the many months since that now-defunct version of the virus emerged, new variants have arrived to speed the timeline up. Estimates for this exposure-to-symptom gap, called the incubation period, clocked in at about five days for Alpha and four days for Delta. Now word has it that the newest kid on the pandemic block, Omicron, may have ratcheted it down to as little as three. If that number holds, it’s probably bad news. These trimmed-down cook times are thought to play a major part in helping coronavirus variants spread: In all likelihood, the shorter the incubation period, the faster someone becomes contagious—and the quicker an outbreak spreads. A truncated incubation “makes a virus much, much, much harder to control,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told me. Already, that’s what this variant seems to be. In less than a month, Omicron has blazed into dozens of countries, sending case rates to record-breaking heights. If, as some scientists suspect, this variant is so primed to xerox itself more quickly inside us—including, it seems, in many people with at least some immunity—that leaves punishingly little time in which to detect the virus, intervene with antivirals, and hamper its spread.#160;

Asymptomatic COVID-19: What to Do if You Test Positive Without Symptoms -- In many cases, COVID-19 can be entirely asymptomatic. But even if the infection doesn't cause serious symptoms, it should still be taken seriously.It’s clear at this point that asymptomatic COVID-19 infections can and do happen. In fact, a study published in JAMA Network Open found that, globally, more than 40% of confirmed COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic — and we know that asymptomatic cases can still contribute to the spread of the virus. But it's also important to keep in mind that some of the characteristic symptoms of COVID-19 — a cough or sore throat — can be easily mistaken for other issues, like seasonal allergies or the common cold, . Others can be mild and barely noticeable, including minor congestion, low-grade fever, headache or fatigue, she said. .Whether or not you develop symptoms, if you test positive for COVID-19 you should:

• Get in contact with your health care provider.
• Stay home and isolate yourself. That means you should stay in a separate room and use a separate bathroom from other people in your household, if possible, the CDC says. You should also wear a mask if you have to be around other people, avoid sharing items (like cups and towels), avoid public transportation and generally avoid contact with other people.
• Monitor yourself for symptoms. You will likely get specific instructions from your doctor's office about what to watch for, which might include things like taking your temperature every day.
• Tell your close contacts that you tested positive and they may have been exposed.

Whether or not you have symptoms, you should isolate for 10 days, according to the CDC. “It really doesn’t matter whether you’re symptomatic or asymptomatic,” El-Sadr said. “You need to be isolated for the same duration of time.”For people who don't have symptoms (and never develop them), day 0 is the day you test positive and day 1 is the day after that. If you do develop symptoms during your isolation, the first day of symptoms becomes your new day 0 and you'll have to start counting all over again.If, after 10 days, you've gone 24 hours without a fever (without using fever-reducing medications) and your other symptoms of COVID-19 are also improving, the CDC says you can end your isolation.

We Know Enough About Omicron to Know That We’re in Trouble - A lot has changed for Omicron in just two weeks. At December’s onset, the variant was barely present in Europe, showing up in 1 to 2 percent of COVID cases. Now it’s accounting for 72 percent of new cases in London, where everybody seems to know somebody with COVID. In the U.K. and Denmark, Omicron case numbers are doubling every other day. The same exponential growth is happening—or will happen—in the United States too, just in time for the holidays.What seemed likely earlier this month is now quite certain: A big Omicron wave is coming, on top of an already substantial Delta wave. There are still some unknowns about the variant, such as exactly how severe these cases will be. But we know enough about Omicron to understand that the time to act is now. “If we wait until our hospitals look like they’re starting to fill,” says Lauren Ancel Meyers, the director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, “then it will be too late.”The most intriguing unknown—the one in which we might like to place our hopes—is whether Omicron could be milder than Delta. But a milder, more transmissible virus can easily sicken so many people that it ends up increasing hospitalizations and deaths on the whole. Here is some simple math to explain the danger: Suppose we have two viruses, one that is twice as transmissible as the other. (For the record, Omicron is currently three to five times as transmissible as Delta in the U.K.—though that number is likely to fall over time.) And suppose it takes five days between a person’s getting infected and their infecting others. After 30 days, the more transmissible virus is now causing 2⁶, or 64, times as many new cases as the less transmissible one. Exponentials are one hell of a growth hack. If we are banking on the idea that Omicron is more mild to get us through winter, then we had better hope that it’s really, really mild. Vaccines will lower the proportion of hospitalizations quite a bit in those extra cases, especially because Omicron is infecting lots of vaccinated people. But it’s a long climb down that exponential curve. Moreover, when so many cases pile up all at once, their effects start spilling over into the lives of those who aren’t sick. If Omicron runs through a workplace it may present a temporary inconvenience. But if that workplace is a school, then the school will have to close, disrupting the lives of every child and parent. If that workplace is a hospital, then doctors and nurses are unable to work. This has been an issue in South Africa, where Omicron is already dominant andnearly 20 percent of the health-care staff have COVID. Even if most of these cases are mild, huge numbers of people getting sick all at once will alter everyday reality.Not every case will be mild, though, and even a small hospitalization rate on top of a huge case number will be a big number. With Delta, “we were already headed for a bad winter,” says Roby Bhattacharyya, an infectious-diseases physician at Massachusetts General Hospital. Now, as my colleague Ed Yong reports, Omicron could push a collapsing health-care system further into disaster. Hospitals are already dealing with the flu and other winter viruses. They’re already canceling elective surgeries. After another year of pandemic burnout, they simply may not have the staff to create the surge capacity that barely got us through last winter. Overtaxed hospitals mean care gets worse for everyone with COVID—but also everyone with a broken hip or a stroke or a baby that urgently needs to be delivered. Omicron’s transmissibility is a danger because high levels of COVID cases come with these second-order consequences that transcend the risk to individuals.

Considerable escape of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron to antibody neutralization. - This manuscript has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication in Nature and is provided in this format here as a response to the exceptional public-health crisis. This accepted manuscript will continue through the processes of copy editing and formatting to publication of a finalized version of record on nature.com. The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was first identified in November 2021 in Botswana and South Africa 1,2,3. It has since then spread to many countries and is expected to rapidly become dominant worldwide. The lineage is characterized by the presence of about 32 mutations in the spike, located mostly in the N-terminal domain (NTD) and the receptor binding domain (RBD), which may enhance viral fitness and allow antibody evasion. Here, we isolated an infectious Omicron virus in Belgium, from a traveller returning from Egypt. We examined its sensitivity to 9 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) clinically approved or in development4, and to antibodies present in 115 sera from COVID-19 vaccine recipients or convalescent individuals. Omicron was totally or partially resistant to neutralization by all mAbs tested. Sera from Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, sampled 5 months after complete vaccination, barely inhibited Omicron. Sera from COVID-19 convalescent patients collected 6 or 12 months post symptoms displayed low or no neutralizing activity against Omicron. Administration of a booster Pfizer dose as well as vaccination of previously infected individuals generated an anti-Omicron neutralizing response, with titers 6 to 23 fold lower against Omicron than against Delta. Thus, Omicron escapes most therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and to a large extent vaccine-elicited antibodies. Omicron remains however neutralized by antibodies generated by a booster vaccine dose.

UK agency: Pfizer booster's ability to prevent symptomatic COVID wanes within weeks - New data from the UK indicates that the effectiveness of Pfizer vaccine booster shots in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 as a result of the Omicron variant drops considerably within 10 weeks of receiving the inoculation. But it also showed that protection afforded by Moderna boosters remained relatively strong for a longer period.The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) reviewed 68,489 Omicron cases in the country. It assessed that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were around 70 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease 2-4 weeks after getting a third shot (down from some 90% effective against the previously dominant Delta variant)With Pfizer boosters, this dropped to 45% by 10 weeks, but Moderna booster effectiveness stayed at around 70% for at least 9 weeks. Reacting to the findings, Jenny Harries, head of the UKHSA, said boosters were still very important and would help prevent severe cases and deaths. “Despite the headlines people need to really understand that a booster dose is absolutely vital,” Harries told the BBC. “We anticipate it will have a very significant positive impact on preventing serious illness and death.” Notably, most symptomatic Omicron cases are mild. Recent data from the UKHSA has indicated the risk of hospitalization from the strain is 50%-70% lower than Delta.The analysis follows two studies, from Imperial College London and Scottish researchers, that found patients with Omicron were between 20-68% less likely to require hospital treatment than those with Delta. Even if the early studies are borne out, the new variant could still overwhelm health systems because of the sheer number of infections.

FDA Releases More Data On "Adverse Reactions" To Pfizer Vaccine -As the FDA prepares to approve Pfizer's new pill for treating high-risk patients infected with COVID, more information about dangerous side effects tied to its vaccine are coming to light. Just yesterday, we reported another death tied to the vaccine in New Zealand. Now, documents released by the FDA reveal that drugmaker Pfizer recorded nearly 160K adverse reactions to its COVID vaccine in the initial months of its rollout. The data were obtained by a group of doctors, professors, and journalists calling themselves Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency. They filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the FDA asking for their release. And the first tranche of documents revealed that, as of February 2021, when Pfizer’s shot was being rolled out worldwide on an emergency basis, the drugmaker had compiled more than 42K case reports detailing nearly 160K individual adverse reactions to the vaccine. The data show the bulk of the adverse event cases, both serious and non-serious, were classified as "general disorders". Among the more common conditions reported were fevers (pyrexia), fatigue, and diarrhea, among others. But perhaps the most surprising number in the entire report is that more than 1K of these cases were fatal in the US. All told, more than 3K deaths have been linked to the vaccine, something that's in line with the company's own data. Critics have argued that some of the deaths can't be conclusively linked to the vaccine, but others have instead insisted that the number of deaths might still be underreported. Keep in mind, these data were used by the FDA to declare the Pfizer jab safe, which it did for Americans aged 16 and older in August. It has since been approved for children as young as five, along with booster doses for people aged 16 and up as of last week. Readers can find the complete breakdown of data from Public Health and Medical Professionals For Transparency below: 5.3.6 Postmarketing Experience on Scribd.

Most of the World’s Vaccines Likely Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron - A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant.All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world.The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.A global surge of infections in a world where billions of people remain unvaccinated not only threatens the health of vulnerable individuals but also increases the opportunity for the emergence of yet more variants. The disparity in the ability of countries to weather the pandemic will almost certainly deepen. And the news about limited vaccine efficacy against Omicron infection could depress demand for vaccination throughout the developing world, where many people are already hesitant or preoccupied with other health problems.Most evidence so far is based on laboratory experiments, which do not capture the full range of the body’s immune response, and not from tracking the effect on real-world populations. The results are striking, however.The Pfizer and Moderna shots use the new mRNA technology, which has consistently offered the best protection against infection with every variant. All of the other vaccines are based on older methods of triggering an immune response.The Chinese vaccines Sinopharm and Sinovac — which make up almost half of all shots delivered globally — offer almost zero protection from Omicron infection. The great majority of people in China have received these shots, which are also widely used in low-and middle-income countries such as Mexico and Brazil.A preliminary effectiveness study in Britain found that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination. Ninety percent of vaccinated people in India received this shot, under the brand name Covishield; it has also been widely used across much of sub-Saharan Africa, where Covax, the global Covid vaccine program, has distributed 67 million doses of it to 44 countries.

Most Covid Infections May Soon Be Breakthroughs. Here’s What That Means. - Omicron — the latest variant of SARS-CoV-2 — is steadily working its way through populations with high levels of immunity around the world. There are going to be many coronavirus cases in the coming days and weeks, with little to stop the spread, even if existing immunity can still prevent serious illness. In the United States, so-called breakthrough cases — infections among the vaccinated — were less common before Omicron, affecting just a small percentage of vaccinated people, by most counts. Now breakthrough cases among the vaccinated are fast becoming the status quo.The highly contagious Omicron stands to make the notion of a surprise breakthrough infection “completely irrelevant,” said Ali Ellebedy, an associate professor of pathology and immunology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. This was always bound to happen: As more Americans get vaccinated and more variants circulate, more infections are expected among the vaccinated. But Omicron is speeding up the process.So far, breakthrough cases have caused just a small fraction of the damage, compared to infections among the unvaccinated. “There are many flavors of infection,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. There’s infection, which means the virus is replicating in one’s body, and there’s infectiousness, which means the virus is replicating in parts of the body in such a way that it could infect other people.Initially, being fully vaccinated meant protection against most flavors of infection and their effects.In September 2021, cases of Covid in unvaccinated people were about six times as high as the vaccinated, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Deaths from Covid among the unvaccinated were also around 12 times as high as deaths from Covid among the vaccinated. Serious illness and hospitalizations were also less common among the vaccinated. And even when they became infected, the vaccinated appeared less likely to spread the virus to others.But with Omicron, being fully vaccinated does not appear to provide the same level of protection, in terms of infection and transmission. While the vaccinated still appear likely to avoid serious illness, there remains a risk they will experience symptoms. They may also pass the virus to someone else.With the ability to spread widely and quickly, Omicron is poised to become the dominant variant. It’s unclear how severe or mild Omicron is for someone who has not been vaccinated and thus has no coronavirus immunity. In the United States data suggest that around 61 percent of Americans of all ages are fully vaccinated. There are millions of Americans who are not vaccinated.Hospitals are already overburdened by Delta patients, and the consequences of many infections in a short period will be increasingly deadly. Even cases among the vaccinated can still lead to long Covid.

US COVID cases: Breakthrough infections and deaths rose during delta, but far outpaced by the unvaccinated - Many vaccines lose their power over time and are not nearly as effective even initially as the COVID-19 vaccines. The tetanus vaccine, for example, requires a booster shot every 10 years. Other vaccines, like the flu shot -- which, according to the CDC, reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population -- are needed on a yearly basis. When the COVID-19 vaccines were first launched last December, experts did not know how long their protection would last and how the evolution of the virus might impact vaccine efficacy. At the time, Pfizer and Moderna both estimated that their vaccines were more than 90% effective. By late May, several weeks after the vaccine program became open to the general adult population in mid-April, about half of Americans had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But in the summer and fall, as the highly-transmissible delta variant became dominant, the nation began experiencing a marked increase in infections, including among vaccinated people, as the efficacy of the vaccines began to wane. However, reporting from health officials and data revealed that infections in inoculated individuals tended not to be severe, thanks to underlying protection from the vaccines against acute illness. CDC data, sourced from more than two dozen states, shows that between April and June, a total of 77,000 breakthrough cases and 1,500 breakthrough deaths were recorded, compared to more than 1.74 million breakthrough cases and 15,000 deaths recorded between July and the first week of November. It is unclear exactly how many of these people had also been boosted. Like the federally compiled data, state-level data from January to December also shows that infections among vaccinated people were still relatively uncommon. Meanwhile, it remains exceedingly rare for a vaccinated person to die of COVID-19. Data from 36 of the states showed that approximately 1.37% of those fully vaccinated have experienced a breakthrough infection between January and December. Similarly, data from 34 of the states showed that about 0.05% of those fully vaccinated Americans have experienced a breakthrough case that required hospitalization, and data from 36 states showed only 0.01% of those fully vaccinated have died of COVID-19.In October, unvaccinated individuals had a 5 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a 14 times greater risk of dying from it, as compared to fully vaccinated individuals, according to data compiled by the CDC. Additionally, unvaccinated individuals had a 10 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a 20 times greater risk of dying from it, as compared to fully vaccinated individuals with a booster. Although vaccines remain overall, "very, very effective," and "extremely effective" against hospitalization and death, there does indeed appear to be a decline in protection against infection, over time, Lessler explained.

Maybe No Omicron Boosters? by Yves Smith --Remember how we were told that one of the reasons mRNA vaccines were so snazzy that it would be a snap to roll out new versions to tackle Covid variants…even if getting them approved, manufactured and distributed might lead to delays. Even though Pfizer and then other vaccine-makers said they could have a booster targeting Omicron out in three months or so, the Administration is talking down the possibility of one. That seems odd in that:2 vaccine doses barely create a dent against Omicron, and previous infection, according to initial Imperial College data didn’t either (although some other studies suggest prior infection could blunt severity; the jury is still out on many important Omicron questions)There is good evidence that a booster of the current vaccines reduces the odds of severe outcomes, but not to the same degree as against earlier variants. However, it’s not as clear even against the original variants whether a booster produces as long-lived immunity as the first shots did; it may be shorter, even before you get to how it behaves against Omicron. Israel is launching its fourth round of booster shots only five months after offering boosters to the highest-risk populations. In other words, given that some, perhaps many, members of the public won’t be happy about a more than twice a year vaccination regime, if one is to stay current, another reason to back an Omicron-specific booster is it might last longer against Omicron than the current vaccines, which were developed against the wild type virus.Now one might reasonably say that the vaccine-makers didn’t rouse themselves to create a Delta version. One reason was that Delta overlapped with the older variants a bit before becoming dominant. Second is that the performance of the original vaccines didn’t fall as much in reducing risk of hospitalizations and death as it appears to when boosted for Omicron. Sadly the vaccines did do more to reduce contagion of the wild type virus than Delta, but that change doesn’t get much mention.But as far as I can tell, the idea of developing a new vaccine targeting Delta wasn’t even seriously entertained. Our GM described an additional issue which I never saw mentioned in the press: the Delta variations were orthogonal to some other variants. So while the original vaccine was pretty effective against wild type and Delta and the “orthogonal” variants, one aimed at Delta would not do much to combat the orthogonal variants. So it made sense to stick with the original vaccine as a reasonable “good enough for all current seasons” compromise.But as we know, Omicron is fabulously different. So it’s disconcerting to see what sure looks like official reducing of expectations regarding getting an Omicron booster around March, as Pfizer and now others have indicated. From Top regulator says need for Omicron vaccine depends on staying power of variant in STAT:Whether Americans will need additional vaccines specifically tailored to the rapidly spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus may depend on how long it circulates in the United States, a top regulator told STAT in an interview Wednesday.“If it turns out that Omicron is the new variant that actually things settle into, well then of course we will probably need an Omicron-specific vaccine,” said Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator. “On the other hand, if this is just a variant that’s passing through and we get [a new variant] in a month or two, we won’t need that.”Marks added that Omicron is “a very, very fast-moving virus” that “could pass across this country within a matter of a few weeks,” and that he does not know for sure whether Omicron-specific jabs will be needed….All three manufacturers with vaccines authorized in the United States — Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson — are currently readying Omicron-specific vaccines. Pfizer has said it could begin delivering its Omicron-specific vaccine by March, pending FDA approval.Huh? Unless you assume Omicron will be displaced by yet another variant, even those who were boosted will need a new shot in 5-6 months. And even assuming perfect compliance, 75% odds of not getting a serious infection falls to 42% if you play that game three times, as in go 15-18 months under an Omicron regime. While if an Omicron booster lowers the odds of serious infection by 90%, the risk of getting a bod case over the same time period with perfect compliance is 73%. And to the degree the risk reduction is higher than 90%, the better the long-term odds.

US Army Developing World's First "Universal" COVID Vaccine As Original Jabs Await Final Approval - While the full approval of the best-selling mRNA vaccines by the FDA remains elusive, the US is already working on giving the 'Supersoldiers of Tomorrow' a leg up by developing a "universal" COVID vaccine that will supposedly be effective against all future variants. The US Army is wrapping up early clinical trials of the new jab in the coming weeks. Named SpFN, for Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle, the new jab has reportedly shown promise in non-human primate trials and early human trial results are expected to begin in December, according to a press release from the from the US Army Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. The vaccine is intended to be a jumping off point for a forward-thinking "pan-SARS" strategy that aims to address the current pandemic and acts as a first line of defense against variants of concern and similar viruses that could emerge in the future. "The accelerating emergence of human coronaviruses throughout the past two decades and the rise of SARS-CoV-2 variants, including most recently Omicron, underscore the continued need for next-generation preemptive vaccines that confer broad protection against coronavirus diseases," said Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, Director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch at WRAIR, co-inventor of the vaccine and the US Army lead for SpFN. "Our strategy has been to develop a 'pan-coronavirus' vaccine technology that could potentially offer safe, effective and durable protection against multiple coronavirus strains and species." SpFN entered Phase 1 human trials in April 2021. Early analyses, expected to conclude this month, will provide insights into whether SpFN’s potency and breadth, as demonstrated in preclinical trials, will carry over into humans. The data will also help researchers compare SpFN’s immunity profile to those of other COVID vaccines already authorized for emergency use. "This vaccine stands out in the COVID-19 vaccine landscape," Modjarrad said. "The repetitive and ordered display of the coronavirus spike protein on a multi-faced nanoparticle may stimulate immunity in such a way as to translate into significantly broader protection."

Large majority of unvaccinated say omicron doesn't make them more likely to get shot: KFF - A vast majority of unvaccinated respondents in a Kaiser Family Foundation poll said the omicron variant doesn’t make them more likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine, signaling significant obstacles to getting more Americans vaccinated as the highly transmissible strain spreads. The poll published Tuesday determined that 87 percent of unvaccinated adults said the emergence of the omicron strain does not make them more likely to get the shots, compared to 12 percent who said the variant makes them more likely to get the vaccine. The data comes from KFF’s quick response survey collecting reactions to the omicron variant that was first confirmed in the U.S. this month and has since become the dominant variant as of Monday. Almost half of unvaccinated respondents, at 48 percent, said nothing could persuade them to get the vaccine. Twelve percent said more research and transparency could convince them, while 6 percent said mandates and 5 percent said large monetary incentives could encourage them to get vaccinated. Three percent also said they could be swayed if their doctor recommended it or if the vaccine stopped 100 percent of all infections, even though vaccines do not provide 100 percent protection. Among the vaccinated, half of those who have not gotten their booster doses said news about the omicron strain makes them more likely to get the extra shot. Overall, almost half of all adults said they have received an additional dose, after booster eligibility was expanded to all adults last month. Half of all adults said they are worried they will contract COVID-19 in a 20 percent increase from November before the omicron variant turned up. But unvaccinated adults are still less concerned, with just 42 percent saying they are worried about getting sick from the virus. The partisan divide also remains as 57 percent of Democrats said they were concerned about getting infected, compared to 46 percent of independents and 39 percent of Republicans. KFF’s poll surveyed 1,065 respondents Dec. 15-20 — a shorter time period than for the organization’s vaccine monitor. The margin of error for the total and vaccinated population amounted to 4 percentage points. Among the 186 unvaccinated respondents, the margin of error reached 9 percentage points. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the omicron variant makes up 73.2 percent of all COVID-19 cases — a huge jump from 12.6 percent the week prior — as officials and experts prepare for an expected surge in cases. Studies have shown vaccinated individuals, particularly those who got boosted, have protection against severe disease from omicron, leaving the unvaccinated population most at risk for serious outcomes like hospitalization and deaths.

Omicron Is Changing Our View of Breakthrough Infections - For most of 2020, avoiding the novel coronavirus was at the heart of almost every piece of public-health advice. Then, vaccinations largely gave Americans their lives back. Breakthrough infections were remarkably rare in the early months of mass vaccination. Only about 10,000 people—or 0.01% of the 101 million U.S. adults who had been fully vaccinated—reported one by the end of April 2021, illustrating that post-vaccine infections were possible, but unlikely.That changed when the more contagious Delta variant began spreading over the summer and sickening more people who’d had their shots. Now—though vaccinated people remain far more protected than those without their shots—the highly transmissible Omicron variant may force a complete rethinking of breakthrough infections. A lot remains to be learned about Omicron, but the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that it is likely to cause breakthrough infections. Early studies suggest COVID-19 vaccines will continue to dramatically limit severe disease and death, but may not be as good at preventing symptomatic disease caused by Omicron, compared to other strains. The variant also arrived at an inopportune time, when vaccine-related immunity was starting to wane for people who had gotten their shots early in the year and hadn’t yet been boosted. New York City, one of the first places in the country to experience a significant Omicron spike, is recording an average of more than 7,000 cases per day, despite 71% of the city’s population being fully vaccinated and about 1.7 million people receiving boosters. As of Dec. 4, the case rate among fully vaccinated New Yorkers was 97 per 100,000 people—far lower than the 804 cases recorded per 100,000 unvaccinated people, but roughly double the rate observed among vaccinated people a month earlier. COVID-19 vaccines weren’t built to stop all infections, but rather to stop those infections from turning severe or fatal. They’re still doing that job very well, which should relieve the 61% of Americans who are fully vaccinated—and particularly the 30% of that group who have received a booster. Recent studiessuggest that booster shots greatly increase antibody levels.But even though breakthrough infections may pose minimal risk to millions of vaccinated individuals, they are still dangerous for the U.S. as a whole. Almost 40% of the population, including all children under 5, remains unvaccinated, and millions of immunocompromised, elderly and medically vulnerable people are still at higher-than-average risk. Plus, our health care networks have been overstrained for almost two years, and any extra burden could prove disastrous. Now that the world has largely reopened and a new, highly contagious variant is here, avoiding COVID-19 completely is no longer a realistic long-term plan, says Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency medicine physician and associate dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health. “There is a high likelihood that most of us will catch COVID at some point,” Ranney says. “The goal of the vaccines is to delay that as long as possible, and then to make it so that, if and when we do catch COVID, it is as mild as possible.”

Cancer patients have 13 per cent mortality rate from breakthrough cases: study - Cancer patients remain at a much higher risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 even if they are fully vaccinated, according to a new, small-scale study. The study, published Friday in the journal Annals of Oncology, found that cancer patients had a 13 per cent mortality rate if they suffered a breakthrough infection. The study was conducted by the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium (CCC19), a group of 129 research centres which have been tracking the virus’ impact on cancer patients. This is the first study to investigate the risk levels for cancer patients who experience breakthrough cases, researchers say.“Patients with cancer who develop breakthrough COVID-19 even following full vaccination can still experience severe outcomes, including death,” Dr. Toni Choueiri, director of the Lank Center for Genitourinary Care at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and a senior author on the report, said in a press release. "That is why a multilayered approach that includes masking and social-distancing, along with vaccination plus booster against COVID-19 remains an essential approach for the foreseeable future.”

Why won’t Florida, CDC release state’s breakthrough COVID data? - For more than two months, the Tampa Bay Times and other news organizations have been asking Florida for data that breaks down how many vaccinated people have been infected, hospitalized or died of COVID-19.They are called “breakthrough” cases, data that would show how effectively the vaccine has protected Floridians — and how vulnerable the unvaccinated are.But the Florida Department of Health has continually refused those requests, citing what public health and legal experts say are misplaced privacy concerns.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also refuses to release that data, deferring to the state on whether to share it publicly.It’s information Florida residents and researchers have repeatedly asked for. Now it’s crucial to determine how vulnerable Floridians are to omicron, the highly contagious variant that quickly became the dominant strain in the U.S.“It’s the number one thing that people ask me for,” said University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi. That data may be more important than ever, he said, because it’s “especially pertinent to how omicron may or may not spread.”Breakthrough cases demonstrate how effective vaccines are and can also show how that protection changes over time. Immunity from initial vaccinations wanes 3 to 6 months later, health experts say, so boosters are crucial to fighting off the new variant.Nearly 2.6 million Floridians have contracted the coronavirus since the first vaccine was approved in December 2020, and nearly 42,000 have died from COVID-19 since then. But there is no public data that shows how many were unvaccinated. Nor is there public data that shows how many vaccinated people got breakthrough infections, and whether they had the added protection of booster shots. For example, if Florida released breakthrough data, then we would know how many of the state’s 29,568 new COVID-19 infections — a 118 percent jump from the previous week’s caseload — and 194 new deaths reported Friday were vaccinated or unvaccinated.While Florida won’t release breakthrough data, officials did reveal what some of that data shows: About 30 percent of Florida’s new COVID-19 cases found over a 30-day period were breakthrough infections in people who were vaccinated — but hadn’t received a booster shot — according to a Dec. 19 article in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.Salemi said that single data point doesn’t provide much insight: “One of the most common questions I receive is the extent to which receiving a full series of a COVID-19 vaccine is protecting me from infection, symptomatic illness and hospitalization.“To really answer these questions, it would be valuable to have key COVID-19 metrics reported frequently and stratified by vaccination status and prior infection status.”

Omicron's rapid spread will overwhelm hospitals, experts say - The United States is likely in for a hard winter as the Omicron variant of Covid-19spreads rapidly, Dr. Anthony Fauci says, straining a health care system already battered by the Delta variant."It's going to take over," Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, said of the Omicron variant on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, urging Americans to get vaccinated and get their booster shots. "And be prudent in everything else you do: When you travel in your indoor settings that are congregated, wear a mask.""We can't walk away from that, Jake, we can't," he told CNN's Jake Tapper. "Because with Omicron, that we're dealing with, it is going to be a tough few weeks to months as we get deeper into the winter."According to the World Health Organization, Omicron cases are doubling every 1.5 to 3 days with documented spread. And in the US, it's expected to become the "dominant strain" in the coming weeks, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.The US is now facing a resurgent coronavirus as the pandemic marches into its third year: The country was averaging 126,967 new cases per day as of Saturday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University -- up from an average of just over 70,000 new cases per day at the beginning of November."This Omicron variant is extraordinarily contagious. It's as contagious as measles, and that's about the most contagious virus that we've seen," CNN medical analyst Jonathan Reiner said Saturday, warning there was a "tsunami" coming for unvaccinated Americans.It's important to remain vigilant to help prevent hospitals from getting "swamped," he added. Even if Omicron ends up causing less severe infection than Delta, the sheer number of infections Omicron could generate could overwhelm US hospitals.More than 69,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 across the US and more than 20% of all ICU beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

Omicron surge threatens to overwhelm health systems across the United States - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Monday that the Omicron variant now accounts for 73 percent of all new coronavirus cases in the US, establishing it as the dominant strain in the country. States and cities are being overwhelmed by new cases, with the largest number reported in New York state, over 23,000 new infections, a single-day pandemic high. The number of cases is higher than even during the deadly days of spring 2020, when New York City was the epicenter of the world pandemic and bodies were stacked up in freezer trailers for lack of time and space to bury them. It has been 42 days since the first detected case of Omicron was sequenced in Botswana and 26 days since the World Health Organization alerted the world to the dangers posed by the new highly transmissible variant B.1.1529, which it named Omicron. Early estimates placed the doubling time at around two days. On December 1, 2021, the University of California, San Francisco, reported that a man returning from South Africa on November 22 tested positive for infection with Omicron on November 29. By the week ending December 11, health officials estimated that circulating Omicron across the country had risen to 12.6 percent. This number has jumped six-fold in only a week. With the holiday season upon the country, the number of people flying has doubled from a year ago and there is no indication that things will slow down as the restrictions being implemented are rhetorical in nature and will do little to halt the rapid trajectory of the new variant. More than two million people are transiting through airports each day according to the Transportation Security Administration. Outgoing NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins, speaking with CNN host Anderson Cooper on Friday, explained that he expects daily infections to reach a million new cases. “The big question is,” he posited, “are those million cases going to be sick enough to need health care and especially hospitalizations?” In recent studies by the Imperial College, London, titled reports 48 and 49, the authors found that vaccine effectiveness for Omicron dropped by 4.5-fold compared to Delta. They also confirmed the new variant’s explosive exponential growth and wrote, “we find no evidence (for both risks of hospitalization attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta, though data on hospitalization are still very limited.” Lead author Neil Ferguson warned, “This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infections or vaccination. This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.”

California COVID-19 hospitalizations rise amid Omicron spread - COVID-19 hospitalizations are on the rise in California as the Omicron variant spreads, combining with a holiday wave of the Delta strain to spark concerns of yet another surge that could strain the state’s healthcare system. There were 3,589 COVID-19 patients in the state’s hospitals as of Friday, an increase of roughly 12% from two weeks before, according to The Times’ hospitalization tracker. Some Southern California counties have seen bigger jumps, with hospitalizations rising by nearly 31% in L.A. County and by roughly 26% in Riverside County during the same period. California had recorded 49 cases of the Omicron variant as of Wednesday, although not all samples are sequenced to identify variants. That’s much lower than the 184,700 identified cases of the Delta variant, which remains dominant in the state, but health officials expect the number will rise. Omicron is thought to be more contagious than Delta and better at evading immunity generated by vaccines or previous infections, although experts say vaccines still offer protection against severe illness and death. While there are early indications Omicron might cause less severe illness than other variants, if enough people are infected, hospitals could be overwhelmed nonetheless, health officials say. That comes as the system already faces multiple challenges, including significant staffing shortages and increased demand for other healthcare services like flu treatment and procedures that were put on hold earlier in the pandemic. The majority of California’s Omicron cases — 38 — have been recorded by L.A. County, which on Saturday reported 3,730 new cases of the coronavirus, its highest single-day total in months and more than double the number of new cases reported Wednesday. As of Thursday, the county was averaging just over 1,587 daily cases over the past week, an increase of nearly 19% from two weeks before, according to The Times’ tracker. The county’s daily positivity rate for those who seek testing also has crept upward, from a seven-day average of 1.2% Sunday to 1.7% Saturday, health officials said

Coronavirus dashboard for December 21: exponential spread is here - Omicron warrants an update today, because exponential spread is underway especially in those parts of the country most exposed to international visitors.But first, in the spirit of leading indicators, let’s take a look at South Africa, where Omicron was first reported, and which has an excellent reporting system.Here are deaths (solid line) vs. cases (dotted line) per capita for the whole country (note differences in scale) for the past year. In all previous waves of infection, including a previous wave during summer 2020 not shown, deaths followed cases by one month or less: Cases began to rise almost exactly 5 weeks ago, from just under 300 to over 23,000 three days ago – and have already fallen back to 19,400. Meanwhile, deaths have risen from 13 four weeks ago to 44. Undoubtedly deaths will continue to rise. The question is, how much? For some help, here is a look by Conor Kelly at cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Gauteng, the first area of South Africa to be hit: Note that hospitalizations and deaths rose comparably in the three previous waves. This time around, hospitalizations appear to have peaked at only half the level of cases, as normalized in the graph. This is really good news. Meanwhile deaths have clearly started to rise, but there is some indication that they have stayed low longer after the onset of this wave than for previous waves. This appears to be confirmed by the following graph comparing deaths in the first two weeks of the present Omicron wave, with previous waves: In other words, our “leading indicator” example of South Africa lends credence to the idea that hospitalizations and deaths will not be so severe, on a per capita basis, as a result of Omicron than with Delta or other prior waves. This is good news.Turning to the US, the CDC made a splash yesterday by announcing that its model suggests that 73% of all cases in the US now are Omicron. Here’s their graph: But take the CDC’s announcement with a shaker full of salt. In a footnote at its “Nowcast” site, it advises that the graph is bases on four weeks of data *ending November 27,* i.e., four weeks ago! It’s confidence interval includes about 2/3’s of all possible percentages. And it made very major revisions to last week’s estimate, increasing that from 2% to about 30%. In short, the CDC’s number is *very* unreliable.By contrast, here is Trevor Bedford’s log scale *actual* data, through 12 days ago, of cases in the US and 8 other countries:Projecting Bedford’s trendline forward 12 days suggests that right now about 33% of all cases in the US are Omicron.That’s a very major difference, not just because of the numbers, but because in the CDC’s version, Delta has been knocked back to about 35,000 cases, whereas in Bedford’s Delta’s number is about constant at 80-90,000 cases. In other words, the CDC has Omicron supplanting Delta, but Bedford does not, at least in the US – although his graph for South Africa does indeed suggest that Delta cases have declined by about 2/3’s since Omicron emerged at the beginning of November.There is another intriguing trend in Bedford’s graphs, because most countries also provide a record for “other” variants in addition to Omicron and Delta. Looking at South Africa, “other” cases have risen even faster than Omicron since one month ago, and are responsible for about 10% of all cases there now. A similar trend appears to have started in Germany, the UK, and the US as well. I have not read of any explanation of this from any expert.Finally, let’s look at where we have exponential spread in the US. Here are NY, NJ, and RI: NY and NJ both set new records as of today. RI is not far behind.HI and PR are two tropical island oases that had been doing extremely well. Both are 80% or more vaccinated, and PR in particular recently had as few as 2 cases per 100,000 daily. This week PR shot up to 40 cases per 100,000 in *four days!*Of course, HI and PR are tourist destinations and have heavy international travel as does the NYC area.And of course, we all know one other State that has a similar profile: FL. Here is FL’s official case count, which they are still only updating once a week: Next, here are OH, DC, HI, and PR:

48 test positive for Covid on world's biggest cruise ship— Despite stringent measures supposed to minimize Covid outbreaks on ocean cruises, operator Royal Caribbean says at least 48 people on board one of its ships that docked in Miami at the weekend have tested positive for the virus.The Symphony of the Seas, the world's biggest cruise ship, was carrying more than 6,000 passengers and crew on a week-long journey around the Caribbean when a guest tested positive, prompting wider contact tracing, according to Royal Caribbean.Cruise ships had been touted as the one of the "safest" vacations available back in summer 2021 when the cruise industry restarted in the US with new Covid protocols, following an extensive pandemic shutdown.The Symphony of the Seas was carrying 6,091 passengers and crew members. In a statement, Royal Caribbean said that after a guest tested positive during the voyage subsequent cases were detected following contact tracing. It said 95% on board were fully vaccinated. Of the people who've since tested positive, 98% were fully vaccinated. The total number of cases amounted to 0.78% of the on board population.It's not yet known whether the highly infectious Omicron variant of coronavirus, currently spreading rapidly around the world, was responsible for the cases detected.Royal Caribbean rules dictate that all travelers on board a ship aged 12 and above must be fully vaccinated, and test negative before departure. The cruise line says it "strongly recommends" guests receive a booster dose prior to sailing, but this is not currently mandated.Crew members are also required to be fully vaccinated and test "at least once a week." Unvaccinated children on board Symphony of the Seas were required to show a negative PCR, and also test negative at the terminal pre-departure.

Second Royal Caribbean Cruise Ship Suffers COVID Outbreak, Denied Entry To Aruba And Curacao -This month, the second Royal Caribbean cruise ship to leave South Florida and the third to leave the US has reported COVID-19 infections among crew members and passengers. According to Miami Herald, at least 55 fully vaccinated crew members and passengers on Royal Caribbean's Odyssey of the Seas tested positive for COVID on Wednesday. Last Saturday, the cruise ship departed from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and has since been denied entry to Curacao and Aruba. An alleged guest on the cruise ship tweeted, "I'm stuck on a Covid ridden cruise ship….hearing about it on the news rather than from the captain."In a separate incident, 48 people aboard a Royal Caribbean Symphony of the Seas, the world's largest cruise ship, tested positive last Saturday after returning from a week-long cruise. Royal Caribbean's health policy requires all adults to be vaxxed with at least two shots of Pfizer or Moderna or one shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Royal Caribbean cruise skips two islands after 55 test positive for Covid-19 - A Royal Caribbean cruise ship skipped docking at two island countries this week after 55 passengers and crew tested positive for Covid-19, the cruise line company has said. The Odyssey of the Seas departed for an 8-day trip on Dec. 18. While the ship had scheduled ports in Curacao and Aruba, a decision for the ship to avoid those stops "was made together with the islands out of an abundance of caution due to the current trend of Covid-19 cases in the destinations’ communities as well as crew and guests testing positive on board," said a statement from Royal Caribbean. The ship has about 5,000 people aboard and 95 percent of them are vaccinated, the company said. Its maximum capacity is just under 7,175, including passengers and crew. Royal Caribbean requires travelers who are 12 and older to have two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Everyone who has tested positive "are fully vaccinated and mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic," according to Royal Caribbean. "Close contacts were also identified and placed in quarantine to be monitored for 24 hours prior to testing." "We are sailing with a layered set of health and safety measures in place to make our cruises the safest vacations possible," the statement said. The outbreak comes after Royal Caribbean’s Symphony of the Seas returned to Miami Saturday after 48 passengers and staff members had tested positive for Covid-19.

Omicron variant in California: 7 out of 10 COVID cases at Bay Area lab now are omicron variant - The contagiousness of the omicron variant spreading rapidly through Europe and New York is likely between chickenpox and measles, experts say. A wave of Bay Area restaurants are shutting down temporarily due to confirmed and suspected cases among employees, and indoor dining may once again be too risky, health experts warn.Resources on COVID-19 in California: For detailed maps and city-by-city Bay Area data, check out The Chronicle’s Coronavirus Tracker. Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer said that with the rapid spread of the omicron variant, now responsible for three quarters of the nations COVID infections, “It’s so difficult to wrap our collective heads around this, because omicron is moving at breathtaking speed.” She added, “It’s difficult for us humans to keep up with this virus.” Coronavirus case rates have doubled in San Francisco over just the past five days, almost certainly due to omicron spreading in the community, said Dr. Grant Colfax, head of the Department of Public Health. He said the city has now identified 32 omicron cases, but he expects there are many more. The highly infectious variant appears to be well established in the Bay Area and likely is fueling outbreaks and early surges in COVID cases across the region, health officials said Tuesday. Read the full story here. Air travel over the days leading to Christmas has escalated dramatically over last year’s pre-vaccine slump at airports, despite the rapidly spreading omicron coronavirus variant. The Transportation Security Administration reports that over the weekend and including Monday, the 6.25 million people passing through the nation’s airport security checkpoints was slightly more than double last year’s comparable figure. It did not reach the 7.5 million recorded during the comparable days in the pre-pandemic year 2019, however. Rep. Barbara Lee said Tuesday she had tested positive with a breakthrough infection of COVID-19. “Fortunately, I have only mild cold-like symptoms, but I know it could have been much worse had I not been vaccinated and boosted,” the Democrat wrote in a news release. “I am isolating and will follow all of the required health protocols to keep my loved ones, my staff, and my community safe. I’m grateful for the miraculous work of vaccines, and encourage everyone to get vaccinated and boosted. Please stay masked and follow all of the CDC’s health guidelines as you gather with loved ones this holiday.”

 Omicron suspected after Marin holiday party leads to 28 breakthrough cases - At least 28 people who attended a recent holiday gathering in Marin County have tested positive for the coronavirus in an outbreak likely caused by the highly infectious omicron variant, the county health officer said Tuesday. Face coverings were not required at the indoor party, which was held before the state re-instituted a universal mask mandate, said Dr. Matt Willis, the health officer. The event hosts insisted that all attendees be fully vaccinated, and asked that everyone take a rapid COVID test at home to confirm they were not infected on the day of the party, Willis said. Many of the people in attendance also had gotten booster shots. But more than half of the 50 to 60 attendees have now tested positive, Willis said. All of them have reported mild illness or no symptoms, and none have been hospitalized. “The organizers did everything right,” Willis said. “They limited attendance to people who were fully vaccinated; they requested that people obtain rapid testing before attending.” The event was a dinner held Dec. 11 at Farm House Local in Larkspur, said owner David Monson. One full-time staff member appears to have been among those exposed at the event, and he came down with symptoms several days later and tested positive for COVID-19, Monson said. It was just one of two holiday events Monson agreed to host this season, and it had been rescheduled from its original April 2020 date. Monson said he was impressed by the precautions for testing and vaccination proof from the hostess. The guests were mostly local residents and familiar faces.

Breakthrough Cases in Mass. Top 100,000; Over 5 Million Fully Vaccinated – Massachusetts health officials on Tuesday reported nearly 11,500 new breakthrough cases over the past week, bringing the total above 100,000, and 52 more deaths.Tuesday also brought a milestone in the state's immunization effort: Five million people have now been fully vaccinated.In the last week, 11,431 new breakthrough cases -- infections in people who have been vaccinated -- were reported, with 250 more vaccinated people hospitalized, Massachusetts Department of Public Health officials said Tuesday. It's a slight increase in the rate of new breakthrough cases in Massachusetts -- last week saw 11,321 new COVID infections in vaccinated people.The new report brings the total number of breakthrough cases to 100,399, and the death toll among people with breakthrough infections to 699. While vaccinated people are getting COVID-19, the virus' effects are severely blunted in them, and breakthrough cases rarely lead to hospitalizations or deaths. That's why public health officials worldwide continue to stress the importance of vaccination and booster shots.

Arizona now reporting COVID-19 breakthrough cases, deaths - The Arizona Department of Health Services is extending its commitment to keeping the public updated on COVID-19 data by including cases of breakthrough infections. ADHS, as of Dec. 8, began reporting the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in those who are vaccinated against the infectious disease. The first report, which will be updated every two weeks, showed that in October, unvaccinated people in Arizona were 3.9 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 and at a 15.2 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with those fully vaccinated with one of the three approved vaccines. The cases data for the number of breakthrough cases was collected from June 20 of this year through Nov. 13, and the death data was collected from June 20 through Oct. 30; death data requires a month-long lag to help paint a complete picture of the disease, according to ADHS. June is when the highly contagious Delta variant first entered the state. The report also segments statewide data by age, which highlights the increased susceptibility to adverse outcomes for older Arizonans. “The biggest takeaway from this report is that every week and across all age groups, people who were unvaccinated had a greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than people who were fully vaccinated,” said Don Herrington, interim director of ADHS. “COVID-19 vaccines continue to be the best tool for preventing infection and death from COVID-19.”

Florida breaks another record for COVID-19 cases - Florida broke its single-day record for new COVID-19 cases on Thursday as the omicron variant continues to drive a surge in infections. The state reported 31,758 cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention database on Thursday. The previous high was 27,669 in August when the delta variant swept the state. The statewide positivity rate rose to 13.8 percent for the week, up from 5.3 percent the week prior. Florida had its largest single-day spike in cases earlier this week, another illustration of how the new variant has hit the United States hard. The country has seen several COVID-19 records broken as omicron has become the dominant strain over the last month. Early research suggests that the new variant has caused less severe illness than strains, at least for fully vaccinated individuals. More than 70 percent of Floridians over the age of 5 are fully vaccinated.

Ohio breaking records in new COVID cases — This past Tuesday and Wednesday, the state of Ohio broke records for newly reported cases of COVID-19, topping 12,000 new cases each day according to Harrison County Health Administrator Garen Rhome. Prior to that, the state had never eclipsed 12,000 in a 24-hour period and it was done twice on consecutive days. The omicron variant still has not reared its ugly head in Harrison County, he said, and breakthrough cases in people who have gotten sick after being vaccinated have not gone up, either. Rhome said he’s not necessarily surprised by the lack of omicron cases in the local area, because of the way Harrison County and the surrounding area tends to lag behind the rest of the state. “A lot of times Ohio will lag the nation by a week or two and then, here, our counties in this little region here, sometimes we lag Ohio by another week or two,” Rhome said, adding that the situation was similar in April during the initial cases of the delta variant. Anytime there is a global or national peak or valley in cases, he said the area does lag behind for a week or two. Rhome said the omicron variant still appears to be mild, but the trend is clear: while the delta variant recedes, omicron is taking over. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said omicron now makes up 73% of new COVID cases in the United States. Rhome said although omicron spreads rapidly, its effects seem relatively mild on vaccinated individuals. “So, we would expect it to be milder among, you know, a largely vaccinated community or state or country,” he said while acknowledging that the omicron variant is more transmissible “than the previous variants.”

 Cuyahoga County’s COVID-19 case rate per 100,000 is 2nd highest in US (WOIO) - Cuyahoga County is currently among the areas with the highest COVID-19 infection rate in the entire country. According to data compiled by the New York Times from state and local-level health agencies,Cuyahoga County currently has the second highest COVID-19 case rate per 100,000 in the United States, behind only Hopkins, Texas. The latest update on Dec. 24 shows that Cuyahoga County’s cases per 100,000 is 254. That’s a 234% increase over the last 14 days. The Ohio Department of Health, members of the Ohio National Guard, as well as officials from both the Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals, partnered together for a mass community COVID-19 testing site in the University Circle area. Lake, Lorain, Portage, and Summit counties are also among the top 20 in the nation with the highest case per 100,000 metric.

Two Maryland hospitals declare health care 'disaster' amid rising cases - Two Maryland hospitals declared a health care “disaster” on Friday as COVID-19 cases continue to rise at the Old Line State facilities.University of Maryland Upper Chesapeake Health made the declaration for the Upper Chesapeake Medical Center in Bel Air and the Harford Memorial Hospital in Havre de Grace, according to The Washington Post.The declaration gives the facilities the ability to adjust surgery schedules and reassign staff to address the hospitals' increasing needs, according to the Post. Coronavirus cases have jumped 458 percent this past month between the two hospitals, according to the newspaper. At the Upper Chesapeake Medical Center, COVID-19 cases have surged 733 percent. Fermin Barrueto, a senior vice president at Upper Chesapeake Health, told the Post in an interview that “the demand for our services has outstripped our resources, which includes staffing.” He said “burnout” and “moral distress” are fueling the staff shortages. “We did not take this decision lightly,” he said, adding that the situation “has been a challenge.” Barrueto told the newspaper that the declaration is expected to continue for “days, weeks, but your guess is as good as mine.” The declaration comes amid a surge in COVID-19 cases nationwide, driven in part by the highly transmissible omicron variant. The strain, which was first identified in South Africa last month, has since spread widely across the globe.

 Scientists warn Canada’s health care system could collapse within weeks as Omicron infections explode in Ontario and Quebec -The explosive growth of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in Canada is causing infections in the two most populous provinces, Ontario and Quebec, to skyrocket. While Quebec currently leads the way with new cases more than doubling in the four days from Tuesday to Friday, experts from Ontario’s Science Table warned Thursday that the province’s hospitals will face “unsustainable” demands for care in January if infections continue to rise at their current trajectory. Quebec announced 3,760 infections over the previous 24 hours Friday, up from 1,747 on Tuesday. This was the highest daily total since the pandemic began. Analysis of positive tests revealed that the Omicron variant made up 20 percent of all infections on Tuesday. Based on the understanding that the highly infectious variant doubles every two to three days, Omicron appears set to dominate new infections in the province by this weekend. Record high daily infections were also announced in the Atlantic provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. A similarly disastrous situation is developing in Ontario. Daily infections surpassed the 3,000 mark for the first time since the third wave in the spring, with authorities announcing 3,124 new infections over the preceding 24 hours Friday morning. The Science Table advised that its dire prediction of overwhelmed hospital wards within a matter of a few weeks, which would result in thousands of preventable deaths, could only be averted if social contacts are reduced by 50 percent. A reliance on booster vaccines alone would not prevent daily infections from rising to an unprecedented 6,000 to 10,000 within the next two weeks, the assessment added. Yet immediately after presenting this sobering scenario, Science Table co-chair Adalsteinn Brown rejected out of hand any talk of lockdowns or other comprehensive public health measures to avert the impending crisis. “I don’t think that we need to necessarily stop things full out,” he commented. “I believe we can do this without closing schools or shutting down businesses that have suffered during previous waves.”

Some countries shorten booster timeline to five months amid omicron spread | TheHill - Several countries are moving up their COVID-19 booster shot eligibility timelines amid a spike in cases due to the omicron variant, Reuters reported. The standard timeline for booster shots in many countries, including the United States, has been six months after the conclusion of the first round of vaccinations. As the new highly contagious variant continues to spread and cases surge, France, Singapore, Taiwan, Italy and Australia have decided to move their booster shot inoculation period ahead to five months. Belgium will now allow booster shots four months after initial vaccination, and South Korea, the United Kingdom and Thailand have decreased the time frame to three months, according to Reuters. The U.S. so far has stuck with its six-month recommendation. Many countries are adjusting their guidance, as some reports suggest the newest variant, which was first detected in South Africa, is more likely to evade preexisting immunity compared than other variants. Some scientists are expressing concern that advancing the booster timeline could affect the vaccine's efficacy, however. "In general for multiple-dose vaccines ... the immune system works better if it has time to mature," William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert from the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told Reuters.

German elderly care workers report dramatic pandemic experiences -Christine is a geriatric nurse and nursing instructor in Bavaria. In December 2020, she was assigned to the Naabtalpark Burglengenfeld retirement home, whose operator is a large nationwide nursing service provider. “I’ve been working in nursing since 1991. Last year I was working in a retirement home when the pandemic broke out there. I’m used to a lot, but this topped everything. The health department sent all the staff home because they were all positive. Because I was negative, I had to take care of 40 patients on my own. No emergency medical service came for days, only after many phone calls did someone finally come. “When I turned to the health department and they refused to take on the responsibility, there was a lot of back and forth and a call on Facebook for caregivers to come and help. Then they sent in the Army (Bundeswehr, German armed forces). “There were masks in the home, but this was not taken very seriously, and hygiene was not very good either. Especially since among those needing care, some have severe disabilities—it makes it even more difficult. They were only tested in the first week of December. This should have been done much earlier, but it was neglected because the company didn’t take it seriously. At that time, the home’s management was on sick leave due to burnout. “The head of nursing was also sent home. The district office wanted me to be the only person responsible for 40 people. I said that if no one helped me, I would end up in a mental hospital—and I really almost did. A lot of facilities were like that, and it should be much more publicized.” The operator’s license was initially revoked as a result of the outbreak, but it was reinstated two months later after supposed “close inspections” by the authorities. “At some point I was no longer able to work and had to go to psychosomatic rehab. Now I work in a medical supply store and do nursing consultations and individual care for dementia patients on the side. “I would so like to work with people again, but these circumstances wear you down and depress you. I have depression because of it. The good staff is wearing out—those who continue to work diligently are worn down until they can’t keep going. “Compared to how it was before, everything has deteriorated 100 percent. Care is supposed to be done on a computer—but by half illiterates. I have written to the home supervisor many times, without success. Then I see that the facility gets a high grade. This just makes me angry and sad. “From my perspective, the medical service of the health insurance companies (MDK), which gives the grades, has made the situation worse. It only checks the documentation; it doesn’t care about anything else. So the MDK is satisfied if everything is documented twice and three times. The actual care for the patient suffers for it. “It is a bottomless pit: Mindless laws by desk jockeys who have no idea how it is in practice. Nursing homes, clinics and hospitals should not and must not be privatized. Because then the elderly just become a source of income.”

South African Officials Advise End To Contact-Tracing, Quarantining Because Most Don't Experience Any Symptoms - In news that you will likely not see anywhere today, government advisors in South Africa have suggested stopping tracing and quarantining those who have come into contact with Omicron because it isn’t helping to stop the spread of the variant, which for the most part causes no symptoms in those who contract it.News 24 reports that the Ministerial Advisory Committee wrote to Health Minister Joe Phaahla “recommending that the quarantining of contacts be stopped as it is no longer viable in the current social and economic climate.”The report also notes “the committee said contact tracing was no longer necessary and should also be halted with immediate effect.”The report notes the memo stated that “With only a small number of contacts identified from a proportionally small Covid-19 cases, quarantining was no longer effective for containing the spread of the disease.”The memo also noted that “the proportion of people with immunity to Covid-19 had risen substantially… exceeding 60-80%.”The memo also said that testing is ‘highly skewed’ because the majority of people who are getting Omicron do not even experience any symptoms.The memo also stated “It stands to reason that if the vast majority of cases are not diagnosed, then the vast majority of case contacts are also not diagnosed. This means that quarantining and contact tracing are of negligible public health benefit in the South African setting.”The advisors warned of the negative effects of shutting down the country when the variant doesn’t warrant it.

UK reaches “hundreds of thousands” of daily COVID cases as education unions demand schools reopen in January - The Johnson government is refusing to implement any serious measures as COVID-19 spreads like wild-fire, exacerbated by the more transmissible variant Omicron. Case numbers in Britain have officially reached 90,000 plus a day, but the government’s scientific advisers say the real figure is already “hundreds of thousands” every day. Omicron is set to become dominant across Britain, having already achieved dominance in Scotland, London, Manchester and other cities. It became dominant in Ireland Sunday. On Saturday, London Mayor Sadiq Khan announced a “major incident” in the capital, which saw its largest number of cases since the pandemic began. There are currently around 15,000 people in hospital beds with COVID in the capital, an increase of 30 percent in seven days. According to the scenarios drawn up by government advisers, continuing with the government’s Plan B of limited COVID measures alone gives a range of 600,000 to 2 million infections per day from “late December 2021 to January 2022”. There would be between 3,000-10,000 hospitalisations daily from “January to February 2022” and 600-6,000 deaths per day from, “Mid-January to mid-March 2022.” The ruling Conservatives, backed by the Labour Party, have insisted since the economy was fully reopened in July that there would be no more lockdowns—the proven method of reducing the catastrophic rate of illness and deaths during the pandemic, as demonstrated in China. The only measure taken is to press ahead with the vaccine roll-out, including booster jabs to all adults, which though necessary will not halt the rise in infections. Scientists estimate a significant drop in the efficacy of existing vaccines even with the booster. Also, a large percentage of the population remains unvaccinated. The government has so far resisted vaccinating 5-12-year-olds, despite the fact that alarming data from South Africa indicates that it is children who are the second most susceptible age group to succumb to Omicron. Five percent of infected children were hospitalised in South Africa.

UK sets record for COVID-19 cases - The United Kingdom reported another record high number of COVID-19 cases Friday as the omicron variant of the disease sweeps the world. The country reported 122,186 new cases on Friday, up from 119,789 cases the day prior. The highly contagious omicron variant has led to case surges everywhere it has been detected. The U.K. reported just over 90,000 new cases last Saturday. New case numbers will not be made available over the festive weekend. Hospitalizations grew eight percent over the week, up to 6,581 individuals. According to the UK Health and Security Agency, 82.2 percent of individuals in the country over the age of 12 are least double vaccinated. Over half the country has received a booster dose.

France reports daily record cases as omicron hits Europe hard --France reported more than 100,000 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, setting a new record as the highly contagious omicron variant rips across Europe. Saturday marked the first time the country recorded six figures in a single day, with 104,611 cases. The country logged 94,124 new infections on Friday, according to France's public health agency. The omicron variant has quickly become the dominant strain in many countries, driving a surge in cases. The United Kingdom reported a record high for daily cases on Friday. Early research suggests that variant, first identified in South Africa, may be less severe than previous iterations, at least for vaccinated individuals. France reported Friday that nearly 77 percent of its residents are fully vaccinated. Cases in the U.S. are also on the rise, with numbers above 250,000 at the end of the workweek. The numbers have dropped over the Christmas weekend, when reporting typically lags, but are expected to rise again with omicron becoming the dominant variant.

COVID-19 explodes in Spain as PSOE-Podemos government refuses action - As the more contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads rapidly across Europe, cases are rising exponentially in Spain. Average daily infections have more than quintupled in a month. On Friday, Spain reported 33,359 new COVID-19 cases, the highest single-day total since the height of the “fourth wave” in mid-July (excluding Mondays, when cases from the weekend are also announced). On Thursday, Madrid alone saw infection numbers increase by around 6,000. Over 300,000 infections have been recorded across the country since the start of December. Even these already catastrophic figures are likely a significant underestimate, as testing remains woefully inadequate in Spain. Only 3,121 tests are being conducted for every 100,000 members of the population, leading to a test positivity rate of 13.9 percent across the country as a whole—well above the 5 percent threshold that the World Health Organization (WHO) considers to be an indicator that the pandemic is under control. In much of the country, this situation is even worse. Eight of Spain’s 17 regions have more than 15 percent of their tests coming back positive: Aragón (19.5 percent), the Valencia region (19.1 percent), Castilla y León (18.9 percent), Navarra (18 percent), Murcia (16.2 percent), the Basque Country (15.8 percent), La Rioja (15.5 percent) and Andalusia (15.2 percent). Only two regions have test positivity rates below 10 percent, and none are within the WHO’s 5 percent recommendation. The rapid rise in infections in Spain is a sharp warning about the very real dangers posed by the virus, which the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government has allowed to spread unchecked. The PSOE-Podemos coalition has engaged in a criminal and concerted campaign to downplay the risks of COVID-19 in recent months, justifying its refusal to take any measures to contain infections with the claim that vaccination had rendered the disease relatively benign. This “vaccine-only” strategy, pursued by governments across the world, has facilitated mass circulation of the virus, encouraging the emergence of more contagious and vaccine-resistant variants and leading to the current unfolding catastrophe of the Omicron strain.

French government rejects scientists’ calls to limit spread of Omicron variant -- On Saturday, French Health Minister Olivier Véran rejected appeals from his own scientific advisers for emergency social restrictions to stop the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. France is posting record infection figures with 1 million active cases of COVID-19 and 50,000 to 65,000 daily infections, and more than 3,000 school classes were closed at the end of last week because of infections of teachers and children. Nonetheless, Véran opposed any lockdown or shelter-at-home orders limiting social interactions to stop viral transmission, claiming “the effectiveness of such measures” is too weak. He added, “I think that given the speed at which the Omicron variant circulates, limitations on seating arrangements or closings of buildings would not have as significant an impact as what they could have with less contagious variants.” In fact, this contradicted the advice of France’s Scientific Council on COVID-19, which declared that strict social restrictions are the only way to prevent mass infection. Shortly before Véran spoke, it had published an article that effectively admitted the failure of the government’s policy of relying only on vaccines to limit deaths from the virus, since the Omicron variant is highly resistant to existing vaccines. It called on the French people to “spend Christmas 2021 in small groups, testing yourself beforehand, and make sure the elderly have had their booster [vaccine] doses.” Above all, it stressed the need for public health measures like stay-at-home orders to eliminate transmission of the virus and prevent an uncontrolled spread of Omicron: “Given the acceleration of the epidemic, and the risks arising from end-of-year parties, significant social restrictions must be authorized by state authorities during the holiday season (including if necessary in the form of collective limitations on social activity or curfews), potentially with the response adapted to conditions in each region.” The Council stressed its fear that “there could emerge a series of Omicron mini-clusters, which could spread very rapidly in the coming days throughout the entire country, given population movements” during the holidays. Against the Scientific Council, Véran advanced the absurd argument that the transmission of the Omicron variant would be extremely fast but would have at most a limited impact. “Omicron, if it begins to circulate, will most likely circulate very fast, very strongly, with an extremely violent wave, but it will be very fleeting,” he claimed.

Death toll rises in Germany even before Omicron variant takes hold - Daily COVID-19 infection numbers in Germany continue to average 50,000, about twice as high as at the peak of the second wave. At the same time, the death toll is rising. With about 2,000 coronavirus deaths per week, more people are currently dying than at the peak of the third wave in spring 2021. A total of 107,639 people have succumbed to the virus since early 2020. More than 4,800 coronavirus patients currently require intensive care, which is already pushing hospitals to the limit of their ability to respond.The situation threatens to worsen with the spread of the even more infectious Omicron variant. For the week before last, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) says the Omicron variant accounted for 1.6 percent of all new infections in Germany. Due to considerable reporting delays in the identification of coronavirus variants and the explosive spread of Omicron, the actual figures are likely to be many times higher.The particularly high infectivity of Omicron means a very large number of unreported cases is to be expected, which are rapidly increasing unnoticed. An article on news website Zeit Online, for example, speaks of an “invisible wall” of infections and, supported by data from the RKI as well as district and state authorities, shows that an incidence rate of almost 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants will be reached by the end of the year at the current rate of spread.The extent of this exponential increase is already evident in Denmark, Norway and the UK, where the numbers reported are exploding. In Denmark, Omicron could become the dominant variant as early as this week. Currently, the number of daily Omicron infections there is doubling every two to three days with 500 hospitalizations per day expected by New Year’s Eve. Extrapolated to Germany, that would be more than 7,000.In Norway—a country with a population of barely 5 million—the health authorities expect up to 300,000 infections and 200 hospital admissions per day at the end of the year. In the UK, daily infection numbers are already at an all-time high of nearly 90,000. Case numbers are doubling every two days, and, even in a best-case scenario, two to three times as many people would need to be hospitalized daily by Christmas. By April, if the current rate holds, half the population could be infected.

Germany Confirms First Omicron Death While Italy, Spain Revive Outdoor Mask Mandates - Spain has also moved to force its citizens to wear masks outdoors again, a practice that has shown to be not effective at stopping transmission, as panic about the winter surge proves that most European nations haven't learned anything from last year. As the NYT reminds us, most European countries are embracing pediatric vaccines while tightening restrictions on both the unvaccinated, and the broader public. European officials hope that new restrictions and greater access to vaccines will blunt the latest rising wave of coronavirus cases reported in the days leading up to Christmas and New Year’s. Colder weather and holiday traditions are bringing people from different households together indoors, where health experts say the virus spreads most readily. Vaccinations for children under 12 started last week in much of Europe. The French authorities said on Wednesday that they were making all children 5 to 11 eligible, and a vaccine advisory committee in Britain recommended inoculating children that age who are in certain risk groups. Recent data from France suggests that unvaccinated children are helping drive the accelerating spread of the virus there. The incidence of infection among children aged 6 to 10 is now twice that for the population as a whole, according to a study published last week by the French health authorities. A similar pattern was seen in Italy, where schoolchildren and young adults account for the majority of recent cases, experts there said. “Vaccination of children is a necessity,” Prime Minister Jean Castex of France said last month. “It was my 11-year-old daughter who gave me the virus a few weeks ago.”

Israeli hospital reports death of patient with omicron Israel confirmed its first known death of a patient who was infected with the omicron variant of the coronavirus on Tuesday, Reuters reported. The patient was confirmed by an Israeli hospital on Tuesday and described as a man in his 60s who had preexisting conditions. The man had been in the hospital for two weeks before he died on Monday, according to a statement from the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, Israel, on Tuesday. “His morbidity stemmed mainly from pre-existing sicknesses and not from respiratory infection arising from the coronavirus,” the Soroka Medical Center explained in a statement. The patient had reportedly received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to Ynet and The Times of Israel, Reuters noted. Though researchers are still gathering information about the omicron variant that was first discovered last month in South Africa, some early data appears to show that the variant may be less severe than previous strains. A South African study released on Tuesday found that, compared with other COVID-19 cases, there was an 80 percent lower chance of hospitalization for people infected with the omicron variant. That study, however, has not yet been peer reviewed, and researchers noted that it is unclear to what extent omicron is intrinsically less severe than earlier strains and to what extent the drop is due to more immunity in the population.

Israel Rolls Out Plan For 2nd Booster Shots, UK Sees Omicron Hospitalizations Rise To 14 -As far as COVID news Wednesday morning, the flow has been particularly heavy out of the UK, where the government's scientific advisors are reportedly ready to officially declare that those who become infected with the omicron strain are less likely to become severely ill, something that health experts in South Africa (where the variant was first identified) and around the world is likely true (though we only have a few weeks' worth of data to go on right now). But despite this, the variant is still not mild enough to avoid causing large numbers of hospitalizations. The data is culled from the UK Health Security Agency's upcoming report on the severity of the disease before Christmas, Politico reported. And speaking of hospitalizations, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID caused by the omicron variant has climbed to 129 as of Wednesday morning, according to data released by HMG. Leaving aside the issue of the new variant's inherent infectiousness, governments around the world expect the coming winter wave to be milder than last year's - at least in terms of the number of deaths and hospitalizations threatening to overwhelm the system - because many more (literally billions) have been vaccinated since this time last year.A notable exception to this is Microsoft co-founder and billionaire Bill Gates, who tweeted just yesterday that the upcoming omicron-driven wave could be the worst yet. The UK has notably seen case numbers rise to record levels over the past week, while the US (and much of the rest of Europe) are still hanging on to their records from last winter.Meanwhile, as complaints about tightening travel restrictions spread, the British government offered the people a small concession: it was reducing the COVID-19 self-isolation period to seven days from 10 days for people in England who get a negative result on a lateral flow test two days in a row.Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the decision was an attempt to "reduce the disruption" caused by COVID (or rather, from measures imposed by the government for the purpose of supposedly stopping or slowing COVID). And even after, those who leave their self-isolation after only 7 days are advised to limit contact with others.At this point, Germany, Scotland, Ireland, the Netherlands and South Korea have reimposed partial or full lockdowns, or other social distancing measures.Israel, meanwhile, is preparing to launch its guidance for doling out second booster doses to all of its people (starting with the most vulnerable), according to Reuters.

Brazil flying blind in Omicron surge as Bolsonaro attacks child vaccinations - In face of the global spread of the Omicron variant, the government of Brazil’s fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro is fighting any measures that would impinge on corporate profits and openly promoting “herd immunity” through mass infections. After the devastating Gamma variant wave in Brazil between April and July, thousands of lives continued to be lost to the pandemic every week, and the number of deaths per week has never fallen below a thousand. Now, facing the threat of deadly surges with the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, with active cases reported throughout Latin America and community transmission confirmed in São Paulo, Bolsonaro’s Health Ministry has only announced meager travel restrictions for international flights, in which airports would require a vaccine certificate, which are being called “vaccine passports,” or a five-day quarantine for those unable to present one. Such measures are incapable of preventing the entrance of infected individuals, as breakthrough infections with the Delta variant are well documented and a recent South African study found that vaccination with two Pfizer doses offered only 33 percent efficacy against symptomatic infections from Omicron and only 70 percent protection against hospitalization. Furthermore, many individuals only test positive after 14 days of infection, making a five-day quarantine useless. Finally, the quarantines won’t be regulated by any authority but are to be self-imposed, with no way to account for those entering the country who have no economic conditions or refuse to isolate. But even such inadequate measures were immediately attacked by Bolsonaro, who has responded to Omicron with a renewed offensive against vaccines and any measures to control the pandemic. In reaction to demands that the government adopt vaccine certificate requirements, Bolsonaro said, “Is there a better vaccine, scientifically proven, than infection? People who were infected are tens of times more immune than those who only took the vaccine.” That is a lie in itself, as vaccines have been proven to be many times more effective than natural immunity, if a person survives the disease without sequelae. On Thursday, Bolsonaro posted a video on Twitter in which a man claims that the vaccines gave no protection, resulting in vaccinated people being the ones who are infected and transmitting the disease while unvaccinated people were being falsely diagnosed. Using the fact that Omicron infects and transmits more easily, including among vaccinated people, Bolsonaro called for only RT-PCR tests be to implemented at airports, arguing that “It’s more effective than the vaccine, because the vaccine doesn’t stop the virus from infecting and transmitting.” That is another blatant lie, as the meager testing capacity offered by the government allows the free spread of the disease by individuals who only test once, and before positivity, even if they are already infected. Last week, during an event in the presidential palace, he also attacked the use of masks, telling the audience that “no one is allowed to wear masks here.” The fascistic president’s objective is to disrupt any measures that would restrict the spread of the virus, and redouble the efforts for an infection-driven “herd immunity,” regardless of the consequences for the millions of victims. His attack on travel restrictions and vaccines are a critical component of his campaign to defend living with the virus in a “post-pandemic period,” as he described the present to an audience of police officers.

WHO's Tedros Warns Holiday Gatherings Could Result In COVID Surge, Urges People To Cancel Events - World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that holiday gatherings over Christmas could result in a surge of COVID-19, and urged people to cancel such events in light of the new Omicron variant. Health experts in South Africa, where the new variant was first discovered, have said Omicron is not driving up hospitalizations or fatalities in the country to a significant degree.Preliminary data also suggest that the Omicron variant of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus may present milder symptoms than other strains, however the WHO said previously there was limited data on its severity.But speaking during a briefing in Geneva on Monday, Ghebreyesus said there was now “consistent evidence” that Omicron is spreading faster than the Delta variant, and cited this as reason for his advice.“There is now consistent evidence that Omicron is spreading significantly faster than the Delta variant, and it’s more likely that people who have been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 could be infected or reinfected,” Ghebreyesus told reporters during a televised meeting.“There can be no doubt that increased social mixing over the holiday period in many countries will lead to increased cases, overwhelmed health systems, and more deaths,” he said.“All of us are sick of this pandemic. All of us want to spend time with friends and family. All of us want to get back to normal,” he said, adding that “the fastest way to do this is for all of us, leaders and individuals, to make the difficult decisions that must be made to protect ourselves and others.”The WHO chief said that, in some cases, this could mean “canceling or delaying events,” noting that the organization itself had canceled a reception it planned to have with reporters. “An event canceled is better than a life canceled,” he said.

COVID-19 infections in South Korea hit record high following implementation of “with COVID” policy -- The number of new COVID-19 infections continues to rise in South Korea, with the number of critically ill patients as well as deaths reaching new highs. In total throughout the pandemic, more than half a million people have been infected and close to 5,000 have died. Since Seoul initiated its so-called “with COVID” era on November 1, approximately 2,000 people have died, or 41 percent of total deaths during the entire pandemic. Thousands of new COVID cases are being reported on a daily basis, including a record number of 7,850 infections on December 15. On Wednesday, the number of patients in critical condition hit a record high of 1,063, topping the previous high on Sunday of 1,025. In addition to the skyrocketing infection and death rates, three children under the age of 10 have died from COVID, all within the past month. The hospital system is being overwhelmed. Across the country, nearly 80 percent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds are occupied. In the Seoul metropolitan area, ICU capacity is over 85 percent full. ICU beds in other cities and provinces are fully occupied. President Moon Jae-in’s government enacted new social distancing measures on Saturday, supposedly designed to stop the spread of COVID-19, while appearing to backtrack from its “with COVID” scheme. The new measures are toothless and intended to limit the impact on big business as much as possible. They restrict public gatherings to four people and require businesses to close at 9 or 10 p.m., depending on the type.

Covid-19: Centre rings alarm over breakthrough cases as Omicron evades vaccine-induced immunity — Here's latest advisory - At least 90% of all patients infected by the highly transmissible Omicron variant were fully vaccinated, a Union Health Ministry analysis of 183 cases showed. Sharing the results, the Centre emphasised that vaccines alone were not sufficient to check the pandemic and urged the use of masks and continued surveillance to break the transmission chain. Released by Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan, the report showed 27% of the cases had no history of international travel, indicating the variant’s presence in the community. The analysis showed that 87 persons (91%) were fully vaccinated (three of them had received booster doses too), while only seven were unvaccinated and two partially vaccinated. The vaccination status of 73 persons was not yet known, while 16 were not eligible for vaccinations. Dr VK Paul, chief of India’s Covid-19 task force, warned that the Omicron variant had a higher risk of transmission within households when compared against the Delta variant. He said it was clear that Omicron was spreading in households because it has higher transmissibility than the Delta variant. One person bringing the infection from outside, because they didn’t wear a mask when outside, will infect others, Dr Paul told The Indian Express. Dr Paul also emphasised on the need for care — the variant emerged ahead of festivals and the New Year. As a result, responsible behaviour such as hand hygiene, masking, and no crowding was the way forward. He also urged people to avoid unnecessary travel and avoid large gatherings. Containment and surveillance strategies remain the major approaches to controlling the pandemic. He added vaccination alone would not contain the pandemic, adding that there should be emphasis on perimeter control and contact tracing. The health ministry analysis showed that 70% of the patients were asymptomatic. Indian Council of Medical Research Director-General Dr Balram Bhargava said the Delta variant remained the predominant strain in India. As a result, the country needed to continue with the same strategy — appropriate behaviour and ramping up of vaccination drives. Dr Bhargava added that Omicron infections did not necessarily lead to severe symptomatic clinical disease. About a third of all cases detected in India were mildly symptomatic while the rest were asymptomatic. As a result, treatment of Omicron in symptomatic individuals remains the same.

 South Africa Sees New Cases Plunge As Omicron Wave Peaks - Barely a day has passed since President Biden announced his new measures to help the US brace for the coming omicron-driven COVID surge, and already, South Africa's case numbers are drawing scrutiny for a sharp drop in new cases. After touching a new single-day high of nearly 27K new cases nationwide on Thursday, South Africa's numbers dropped to about 15.424K on Tuesday. According to the AP,, South Africa - the "forefront" of the global omicron wave - could be ending before it even starts, despite relatively low uptake of vaccines. Scientists say acquired immunity through infection might have something to do with the trajectory, although distortions and an unevenness in number publishing between different regions of the country could also be a factor. But there is one key detail to suggest this isn't due to some data quirk: In Gauteng province, South Africa's most populous with 16MM people, which has been closely watched since the omicron variant first emerged last month. In addition to being the most populous province in the country, its also home to the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria, the decrease started earlier and has continued. "The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the center of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak," Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told The AP. "It was a short wave...and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths," she said. It is "not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease." Gauteng Province saw its numbers start sharply rising in mid-November. Scientists doing genetic sequencing quickly identified the new, highly mutated omicron variant that was announced to the world on Nov. 25.

Latin America Should Not be the ‘Backyard’ Where U.S. Plastic Waste Gets Dumped, Campaigners Say - As data shows that U.S. plastic exports to some countries in the region more than doubled during 2020, more than 70 organizations from around the world called for an end to this trade, and for the U.S. to manage its own waste.“Crossborder plastic waste trade is perhaps one of the most nefarious expressions of the commercialization of common goods and the colonial occupation of territories of the geopolitical south to turn them into sacrifice zones,” Fernanda Soliz, health area director at Simón Bolívar University, Ecuador, said in the letter. “Latin America and the Caribbean are not the backyards of the United States. We are sovereign territories, and we demand the respect of the rights of Nature and our peoples.”The data, published by members of the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA) in Latin America from Mexico, Ecuador, Argentina and Chile, was based on the U.S. International free trade database, USA Trade Online. It revealed that, between January and August of 2020, the U.S. exported 44,173 tonnes of plastic waste to 15 Latin American countries. That amounts to at least 35 containers of plastic waste arriving in the region daily. The countries that imported the most waste during the first eight months of 2020 were Mexico with 32,650 tonnes, El Salvador with 4,054 tonnes and Ecuador with 3,665 tonnes. Further, the waste is not classified in detail when it is imported, making it hard to trace.There has been greater international attention on the fate of plastic waste shipped abroad since China banned exports in 2018, as the letter pointed out.“Globally, there is growing concern about the shipment of plastic waste from significant powerhouses such as the United States, the largest exporter of plastic waste, to nations with weak legislation and controls,” the signatories wrote.While it is the largest exporter of plastic waste, the U.S. has not signed the Plastics Amendment to the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and their Disposal. In thisagreement, reached in May 2019, countries promised to reduce the flow of plastic waste from wealthier countries to less developed countries that don’t have the infrastructure to properly dispose of it, The Guardian reported.

Microplastics From Africa and North America Found 9,439 Feet Above Sea Level in French Pyrenees -- It seems microplastics — tiny plastic fragments that measure less than five millimeters in length and come from a variety of sources, including clothing, packaging, cosmetics and tires — are everywhere these days, even at the Pic du Midi Observatory, 9,439 feet above sea level in the French Pyrenees. In a new study conducted by Steve and Deonie Allen of the Centre for Water, Environment, Sustainability and Public Health at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, researchers found that the origins of the microplastics were as far flung as North Africa and North America. But how had these tiny pieces of plastic managed to make such a journey? The answer lies in the heights the microplastics reached in Earth’s troposphere. The study found that high wind speeds allowed the microplastics to travel around the globe without much friction or interference. “Once microplastics hit the free troposphere it’s the super highway for pollution movement. There’s high wind speed and very little rain up there, so the pollution doesn’t get rained out and it just travels much faster [than in the planetary boundary layer below],” Steve Allen said, as New Scientist reported.The microplastic particles were found to have traveled 2,800 miles on average during the week prior to arriving at Pic du Midi Observatory, crossing the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea before making it to the atmosphere above the Pyrenees, according to the Daily Mail. Researchers said some of the particles might also have come from western Europe. Earlier studies had indicated that microplastics were moving around at a regional level, rather than traveling through Earth’s atmosphere from continent to continent.According to Steve Allen, some of the plastics originated in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. “Plastic leaving the ocean into the air that high – it shows there is no eventual sink for this plastic. It’s just moving around and around in an indefinite cycle,” he said, according to The Guardian.A majority of the plastic particles found in the French Pyrenees had a diameter between five and 20 micrometers, small enough to be breathed in, reported New Scientist. The research team used a laser to discover that polyethylene, a material frequently used in plastic packaging, was the most prevalent type in the samples.

Eating Microplastics Could Cause Inflammatory Bowel Disease, Study Finds -- Ingesting microplastics may be linked to irritable bowel disease. A new study published in the American Chemical Society's (ACS) Environmental Science & TechnologyWednesday found that people who suffer from inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have more microplastics in their feces than people who do not. “We present evidence indicating that a positive correlation exists between the concentration of fecal MPs [microplastics] and the severity of IBD,” the study authors wrote.Both microplastic exposure and IBD, which includes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, are on the rise.Scientists have found microplastics in drinking water, table salt and seafood, and it is possible that humans eat between 39,000 to 52,000 microplastic particles a year.Researchers still don’t know how big a problem this is for human health, but mounting evidence suggests that eating plastic isn’t good for us. A recent study, for example, found evidence that microplastics can cause cell death at concentrations found in the environment. There is evidence that microplastics can cause intestinal inflammation, gut microbiome disturbances and other problems in animals, an ACS press release explained, so researchers from Nanjing University in China wanted to know if the same was true for humans.To find out, they took stool samples from 50 healthy people and 52 people with IBD who lived throughout China. They found that the people with IBD had about 1.5 more microplastics per gram of feces than healthy people. Further, people with more severe IBD had more microplastics in their samples.“[T]he positive correlation between fecal MPs and IBD status suggests that MP exposure may be related to the disease process or that IBD exacerbates the retention of MPs,” the study authors wrote.

 Mouse study shows microplastics infiltrate blood brain barrier --Much of the millions of metric tons of plastic waste that washes into the sea each year is broken down into tiny fragments by the forces of the ocean, and researchers are beginning to piece together what this means for organisms that consume them. Scientists in Korea have turned their attention toward the top of the food chain by exploring the threat these particles pose to mammal brains, where they were found to act as toxic substances. In recent years, studies have revealed the kind of threat microplastics pose to marine creatures. This has included weakening the adhesive abilities of muscles, impairing thecognitive ability of hermit crabs and causing aneurysms and reproductive changes in fish. They've turned up in the guts of sea turtles all over the world, and been discovered in seal pooas evidence of them traveling up the food chain. Research has also shown they can alter the shape of human lung cells. To further our understanding of these dangers, researchers at Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology orally administered polystyrene microplastics two micrometers in size or smaller to mice over the course of seven days. Like humans, mice have a blood-brain barrier that prevents most foreign substances, and especially solids, from entering the organ, but the scientists found that the microplastics were able to make their way through.Once in the brain, the scientists found that the particles built up in the microglial cells, which are key to healthy maintenance of the central nervous system, and this had a significant impact on their ability to proliferate. This was because the microglial cells saw the plastic particles as threat, causing changes in their morphology and ultimately leading to apoptosis, or programmed cell death.Additionally, the scientists carried out experiments on human microglial cells and also observed changes in their morphology, along with changes to the immune system via alterations to the expression of relevant genes, related antibodies and microRNAs. As seen in the mouse brains, this also induced signs of apoptosis.“The study shows that microplastics, especially microplastics with the size of 2 micrometers or less, start to be deposited in the brain even after short-term ingestion within seven days, resulting in apoptosis, and alterations in immune responses, and inflammatory responses," says study author Dr. Seong-Kyoon Choi." Based on the findings of this research, we plan to conduct additional research that can further reveal the brain accumulation of microplastics and the mechanism of neurotoxicity."

California Sues Walmart for Dumping Hazardous Waste in Landfills --Corporate giant Walmart is being sued by the state of California for allegedly dumping 159,600 pounds of hazardous waste a year in the state’s landfills. The products, which include pesticides, toxic cleaning supplies, batteries, aerosol cans, latex paints and LED lightbulbs, are not materials the landfills are equipped to handle.Rob Bonta, California’s attorney general, and a dozen of the state’s district attorneys alleged that Walmart violated the state’s environmental laws and regulations by dumping the materials, which also included “confidential customer information,” according to the press release.“Walmart’s own audits found that the company is dumping hazardous waste at local landfills at a rate of more than one million items each year. From there, these products may seep into the state's drinking water as toxic pollutants or into the air as dangerous gases,” Bonta said in the statement. “When one person throws out a battery or half-empty hairspray bottle, we may think that it’s no big deal. But when we’re talking about tens of thousands of batteries, cleaning supplies, and other hazardous waste, the impact to our environment and our communities can be huge.”In the complaint, Walmart is also alleged to have been breaking California’s environmental laws for six years. Walmart spokesperson Randy Hargrove said Walmart intends to fight the “unjustified lawsuit,” Newsweek reported. “The state is demanding a level of compliance regarding waste disposal from our stores of common household products and other items that goes beyond what is required by law,” said Hargrove. .“Despite repeated enforcements against Walmart over the past two decades, it consistently — and knowingly — fails to comply with California's environmental protection laws,” California Department of Toxic Substances control director Dr. Meredith Williams said, reported CNN.In 58 inspections of Walmart trash compactors conducted since 2015, dozens of materials considered either hazardous waste, medical waste or customer records containing personal information were found, according to NPR.

Burnout, expertise gaps plague EPA chemicals office - Key EPA programs are facing a steep staffing shortage that some employees worry will imperil critical chemicals work and certain Biden administration priorities, even as advocates say the agency has no real plan for fixing the problem. Parts of the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention lack badly needed personnel, according to agency staff, posing issues for programs focused on new and existing chemicals. EPA is aware of the problem and has noted the need to attract and retain staff within those programs. But critics say that despite the acknowledgement, EPA is doing very little to improve gaps or morale. "I don’t think the public fully understands just how bad. I think they’d be stunned if they knew." EPA’s chemicals office is tasked with some of the most pressing work facing the Biden administration, including chemical risk assessments and research on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. Michal Freedhoff, EPA’s chemicals chief, told the House Energy and Commerce Committee in October that her office was struggling, citing "a staff under stress" operating with "less than 50 percent" of the resources needed to do their jobs (E&E Daily, Oct. 28). PEER believes the extent of the issue is far greater and questions whether EPA has a real plan to fix the problem. The group filed a public records request asking for documents detailing how the agency is acting to counter scientific staffing hurdles. But EPA turned over only a workforce analysis from 2015 to 2020. That document, shared with and first reported by E&E News, shows that attrition rates in the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics hovered just under 9 percent last year. That office is housed within OCSPP and oversees key risk assessment work for both new and existing chemicals, among other duties. EPA did not clarify if the attrition rate is still the same for the office, and it is unclear how OPPT might match up to similar parts of the agency. According to the Environmental Data and Governance Initiative, overall staff losses at EPA between 2016 and 2020 were at 7.4 percent, the greatest loss of personnel across government agencies surveyed. An overall lack of staff isn’t the only problem facing the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics — expertise in specific areas is also an issue. PEER noted cancer experts and inhalation specialists as examples of knowledge the agency currently needs. Without that insight, the group cautioned, some of the agency’s most important public health work could be compromised. Staffing issues and low morale have been documented issues within the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics . A leaked 2020 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey for the office showed workers were unhappy with many elements of their jobs, to a disproportionate extent relative to other parts of the agency. For example, across EPA, approximately 20 percent of staff felt they could not "disclose a suspected violation of any law, rule or regulation without fear of reprisal." But for OPPT, that number was 43 percent. It was even higher within that office’s Risk Assessment Division, with 56.1 percent feeling negatively about the issue.

Biden has no EPA air nominee as climate goals teeter - As President Biden closes out his first year in office, he still has not nominated EPA’s top air official, a role that takes on even greater importance with climate legislation stalling on Capitol Hill. Seven of Biden’s EPA nominees have been approved to fill leadership and policy posts at the agency. Another four nominees await confirmation votes on the Senate floor. But the president has not yet announced his pick for EPA assistant administrator for air and radiation. "If you look at their high-priority issues, many of them deal with the air office," Jeff Holmstead, who served as EPA’s air assistant administrator during the George W. Bush administration, told E&E News. "For those on the outside watching, it has been puzzling." Biden is lagging behind his predecessors in filling this position. Several presidents, including Trump, Obama and George W. Bush, had their nominee for the role confirmed within their first year in office. Miles Keogh, executive director of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies, said he wishes the nomination process were faster for the EPA position. "The slowness to announce things deprives us of the time to come to the table to get to agreement as close as we can," Keogh told E&E News, noting that it is a vital position overseeing air pollution and public health. "It is a really important job, which can literally save thousands of lives and improve the health of hundreds of thousands of lives," Keogh said. He added, "FERC is not going to clean up particulates. The Department of Energy is not going to clean up air toxics. The Department of Transportation is not going to set up monitoring that helps vulnerable communities." "I always thought it was the second-most important job at EPA, just given its scope," Holmstead said. "EPA’s air office regulates everything from power plants to chemical facilities to cars, buses and trucks and even lawn mowers."

Regulators underrate air pollution mortality by $100B, ignore racial gaps: study - The federal government’s approach to air pollution management largely ignores differences across race and ethnicity — underestimating associated mortality costs by $100 billion, a new study has found. Current regulatory analyses assume that all populations are affected equally by air pollution, but older Black and Hispanic individuals are much more likely to die prematurely due to air pollution exposure, according to the study,published in Environmental Health Perspectives.. “Underlying mortality rates, pollution exposure and pollution vulnerability differ significantly across racial and ethnic groups,” Nicholas Z. Muller, study co-author and a professor of economics, engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business, said in a statement. . Federal regulatory analyses of air pollution policies rely on generalized “concentration-response functions” — those that connect concentrations of pollutants to adverse health effects — and other health data to estimate mortality and morbidity impacts associated with policy changes related to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), according to the study. Rather than look at such collective impacts of air pollution on human health and mortality, the authors sought to determine how race and ethnicity play into these outcomes. While their approach did not change the total number of deaths, it did disperse the deaths differently across groups — linking an increased risk of premature mortality to specific racial and ethnicity characteristics. After coupling racial and ethnic differences with underlying health vulnerabilities to pollution, the authors found a 9-percent increase in premature mortality estimates for all people older than 65 years — equivalent to a $100 billion increase in currently estimated mortality costs. When they factored in racial impacts, however, they saw that the differential was even greater. The researchers found that premature mortality estimates related to fine particulate matter pollution jumped by 150 percent for older Black Americans and by 52 percent for older Hispanic Americans, according to the study. Under a scenario with uniform degradation of air quality across the country, older Black Americans had a mortality rate three times higher than white Americans, the researchers found. Acknowledging that their study was limited by the geographical aggregation of data available at the county level, the authors stressed that intra-county concentrations of fine particulate matter can vary greatly and that Black Americans are more likely to live near highways and other sources of high emissions. Elisheba Spiller, a study co-author and lead senior economist at the Environmental Defense Fund, urged the government to make use of “the best available and most up-to-date race/ethnicity-specific information” related to the health effects of policy changes in future regulatory assessments. Doing so, she said in a statement, can help “identify and reduce environmental injustices of air pollution.”

How Black communities become ‘sacrifice zones’ for industrial air pollution - One of the most dangerous chemical plants in America sits in one of West Virginia’s only majority-Black communities. For decades, residents of Institute have raised alarms about air pollution. They say concerns have “fallen on deaf ears.”Every time Pam Nixon drives along Interstate 64, she sees the Union Carbide plant. Wedged between a green hillside and the Kanawha River, the sprawling facility has helped define West Virginia’s “Chemical Valley” for the better part of a century, its smokestacks belching gray plumes and fishy odors into the town of Institute, population 1,400. To many West Virginians, the plant is a source of pride — it was a key maker ofsynthetic rubber in World War II — and a source of hundreds of jobs. But to Nixon and others in Institute’s largely Black community, it has meant something else: pollution. The plant reminds Nixon of leaks, fires, explosions — dangers she’s dedicated most of her adult life to trying to stop. Surrounded by files, documents and reports in her cluttered home office, she turned on her computer around 6 p.m. and logged on to Zoom. On the screen were U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials from Washington, D.C., and state regulators from the capital, Charleston. She had spent weeks calling and emailing residents to convince people to attend. Her goal: show officials that her community was watching them. “You have to be persistent,” she said. Nixon watched approvingly as the audience grew to nearly 300. The threat this time: ethylene oxide, a cancer-causing chemical that facilities like the Union Carbide plant, now owned by Dow Chemical, make and that helps produce a huge variety of products, including antifreeze, pesticides and sterilizing agents for medical tools. The regulators, their Zoom backgrounds set to photos of pristine pine forests and green fields, shared a map of the area, a short drive west from Charleston. Institute, one of just two majority-Black communities in the state, is home to West Virginia State University, a historically Black college whose alumni include Katherine Johnson, the NASA mathematician made famous by the film “Hidden Figures,” and Earl Lloyd, the first Black player in the NBA. Blocks on the map were shaded green, yellow or red, from lowest to highest cancer risk. Much of Institute was bright red. Institute is representative of Black communities across the country that bear a disproportionate health burden from industrial pollution. On average, the level of cancer risk from industrial air pollution in majority-Black census tracts is more than double that of majority-white tracts, according to an analysis by ProPublica, which examined five years of emissions data. That finding builds on decades of evidence demonstrating that pollution is segregated, with residents of so-called fence-line communities — neighborhoods that border industrial plants — breathing dirtier air than people in more affluent communities farther away from facilities.The disparity, experts say, stems from a variety of structural imbalances, including racist real estate practices like redlining and decades of land use and zoning decisions made by elected officials, government regulators and corporate executives living outside these communities. That means that these areas, many of which are low-income, also lack the access that wealthier areas have to critical resources, like health care and education, and face poorer economic prospects. All of the concentrated industrial activity in these so-called “sacrifice zones” doesn’t just sicken the residents who happen to live nearby. It can also cause property values to plummet, trapping neighborhoods in a vicious cycle of disinvestment. In Institute, for example, West Virginia State, starved of state funding for years, has struggled to expand and recruit students. The school is now suing Dow Chemical, the plant’s owner, and arguing that contaminated groundwater beneath the campus inhibits the school’s development plans and harms its national reputation. Dow has sought to dismiss the case, and an appeals court is considering whether the matter belongs in state or federal court.

 130 Groups Ask CFTC To Shut Down "Dystopian" Water Futures Market - About 70% of the world's surface is covered in water. Only 2.5% of it is fresh water and suitable for human consumption. By 2050, two-thirds of the world's population will be affected by water scarcity. Last year, Wall Street recognized this trend by commodifying water on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Now, more than 100 organizations have demanded that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shut down water trading. National advocacy organization Food & Water Watch and 138 other organizations penned a letter to CFTC on Dec. 20,requesting CME to halt all trading of the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures, the world's first water futures contracts, based on water rights in severely drought-plagued California. "Water index futures trades are contrary to the public interest as they involve the trade of an essential resource," wrote Food & Water Watch. The letter argued that water is essential for life and not a commodity. It said the contracts undermine California's state law and "beneficial use" doctrine that prohibits entitlements from being used for speculative trading. Zach Corrigan, senior attorney for Food & Water Watch, said, "the commission should reject this shoe-horn attempt to drive investor profit under a federal law never meant to apply to a common public resource managed by the state for the public welfare."Since the water contracts began trading last December, market participants have traded approximately $1.1 billion worth of spot water, each contract equivalent to 10 acre-feet of water.The letter also warns large institutional firms could corner the market and implement strategies to hoard water, thus raising water prices which would be devastating for households and farmers on the ground. "Free market advocates claim that markets create efficiency, but the outcome is usually dystopian and horrifying," said John Aspray, an organizer with Food & Water Watch.

Feds want endangered species protection for feisty owl - The Fish and Wildlife Service today proposed restoring federal protections for a tiny desert owl that fights above its weight class.Following a 12-month assessment, the agency said it is proposing to list the cactus ferruginous pygmy owl as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The owl lives in Mexico, southern Arizona and southern Texas, though FWS said a critical habitat designation is “not determinable at this time.”“In Arizona and [the] Northern Sonoran [area], pygmy-owl habitat loss and fragmentation resulting from urbanization, changing fire regimes due to the invasion of buffelgrass, and agricultural development and woodcutting are significant threats,” FWS said.The Arizona population is estimated to be in the low hundreds, while the Texas and Northern Sonoran region’s populations are estimated to be in the high hundreds. The western Mexico area is “estimated to have tens of thousands of pygmy-owls,” according to FWS.“Under all future scenarios, we project a continued reduction in species viability throughout the range of the subspecies due to climate change, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation,” the agency said.The proposed listing caps a particularly complicated sequence of events for the 6-inch-tall predator.FWS listed the owl as endangered in 1997 but removed protections in 2006 following a legal challenge by developers who argued the Mexican population was sufficient to keep the bird off the ESA list. The Center for Biological Diversity petitioned to list the subspecies again in 2007.

Years later, restored wetlands remain a shadow of their old selves - It is widely assumed that restored wetlands are a boon for botanical diversity. And that, eventually, these areas will come to resemble natural wetlands. In the best of cases, plant species that have become rarer in Denmark in recent decades, such as marsh orchids, globeflower, tussock-sedge and ragged-robin, would once again become abundant. However, a study led by a University of Copenhagen doctoral student demonstrates that even after up to 17 years of recovery, the wetlands studied stay botanically poor. There is no difference between the wetlands with restoration age of 7 and 17 years. "There has been incredibly little development, in terms of biodiversity, since the wetlands were restored. This applies regardless of whether the areas were restored seven or seventeen years ago—they all have very low plant diversity, and the few plants found are so common that they are of little interest in terms of biodiversity," explains Marta Baumane, a biologist and Ph.D. fellow at the University of Copenhagen's Department of Biology. Baumane is the lead author of the study, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment. The researchers studied ten wetlands in the Kratholm catchment of the River Odense, all restored between 2001 and 2011. The primary purpose of their restoration was to mitigate the leaching of nitrogen and phosphorus from surrounding farmland. The restoration consisted of removing or disconnecting tile drains (and ditches) and re-meandering streams that had been straightened decades prior. The investigated wetlands had in average 9.5 species per four square meters, whereas natural wetlands in Denmark contain approximately four times more plant species. The researchers suspect that the main reason for this low biodiversity is that high nutrient input from agriculture continues to spill into wetlands. Annually, these areas receive up to 400 kilos of nitrogen per hectare. The study also points to another significant barrier to increased biodiversity—the very limited availability and dispersal of native wetland species. As a consequence of the areas being used by—or their proximity to—agriculture for many years, most of the wetland species have vanished from the entire stream catchment and are unlikely to immigrate from seed sources far away. "The study demonstrates that it may take many years for restored wetlands to achieve significant plant diversity if we rely solely on spontaneous biological processes. If nutrients continue to leach into the wetlands from fields nearby, the nature restoration efforts may turn out to be futile. Even if nutrient influx to wetlands is cut off, our estimate is that it will take at least a hundred years for wetlands to resemble natural wetlands with regards to species diversity, due to the slow immigration of species,"

Sierra snowpack jumps from 19 to 98 percent in just 7 days, U.S. -- Snowpack over the Sierra has increased dramatically in just 7 days after a series of storms affected the region last week. The sudden change gives California its wettest start to the Water Year (October 1 - September 30) in more than 40 years. A new series of Pacific storms will bring periods of heavy low elevation rain and mountain snow to much of the western U.S. through the Christmas weekend. Isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts will be possible along the immediate West Coast and into portions of the Central Valley in California this week.​ California statewide, the percentage of average snowpack jumped from 19% on December 10 to 98% on December 17. This made the snow in the central Sierra at 102% of normal for this date. It was just 22% on December 10.1 While increases in the snowpack of this size are not common, they are also not unprecedented, said Julie Kalansky, deputy director of operations for the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). Meanwhile, the next Sierra storm starts building on Tuesday and Wednesday, December 21 and 22, with travel impacts expected for the Christmas weekend. "Atmospheric river (AR) activity is forecasted to bring stormy conditions from the Pacific Northwest to Baja California this week," CW3E noted.2 The trough associated with the current AR is expected to cut off from the main flow and weaken. As it weakens, tropical moisture will be exported towards Southern California and Baja California as part of the second AR. There is still considerable uncertainty in the timing, magnitude, and duration of AR conditions and precipitation.

Polar Vortex Building in North America -- Well, it is finally happening. During La Nina, it is common for the polar vortex, or the winds that circumnavigate the Arctic, to become dislodged and break into pieces. That sends tastes of arctic air southward into the mid-latitudes across the Northern Hemisphere. But we really have not seen that just yet. Usually this happens when strong ridges of high pressure force their way northward to the North Pole and disrupt the vortex. Until the past few days, we had not seen that yet during the fall or early winter. But now, on the first official day of astronomical winter on the solstice, it is taking place. Two ridges will actually cause the disruption with this event. There is a strong ridge in the North Pacific that has built up through the Bering Sea. It is not a complete block as little systems will still be able to get from Russia over the top of it and then back down into western Canada, but the one over Greenland will be the bigger concern as it drifts over the North Pole during the next couple of days and connects to another strong ridge over Siberia. These blocks are breaking the polar vortex into pieces that will cause more stagnant patterns across the Northern Hemisphere all the way into the new year. In North America, the lobe we are most concerned about comes from three features. The first is a trough already over central Canada. For those living north of the border, temperatures have already been rather cold for the last several days, but it has been varying. The next is a trough off the coast of California. This trough has sent a couple of pieces of energy into the U.S. already and is poised to move itself into the western U.S. by Dec. 23. And that is because the third piece of energy will attract both of these troughs into Western Canada by the end of the week. This third piece of energy is escaping over the top of the North Pacific ridge and will dive south along the Canadian Rockies. At the same time, a ridge will be developing over the southern U.S. and the three ridges will lock the lobe of the polar vortex over western North America for the remainder of December. The effect will be drastically cold weather in Western Canada to start. Anomalies are expected to run 30 to 40 degrees Fahrenheit (16.6 to 22.2 degrees Celsius) below normal through most of the Canadian Prairies starting Christmas Day and lasting at least through the end of the year. Some areas will get colder than that. South of the border, the ridge in the southern U.S. will do its best to keep those temperatures locked up in Canada, but we will see spurts of it leak down into the Plains and Upper Midwest at times.

Extreme cold sits and stalls on the Prairies, wind chills in the –40s -- A deep cold snap sweeping over the Prairies will only get worse as we head toward the new year. Temperatures for the foreseeable future will remain frozen in the double-digits, below zero range for the Prairie provinces, with colder wind chills making even a quick venture outdoors a dangerous and health-threatening situation. More on the deep freeze and how long it lasts, below. A low-pressure system hiking over the Rockies is bringing a widespread dose of snow to the Prairies over the next couple of days. After spreading snow over Alberta, as the low emerged over the Rocky Mountains, the system pushed into Saskatchewan during the day on Thursday, destined for northern Manitoba by Friday.The Rockies will see the heaviest snowfall from this system, with 20-30+ cm falling at the highest peaks and lower totals with declining elevation. Lower elevations south of the Yellowhead will see little more than a dusting of accumulation through Friday, but Edmonton could get about 5 cm from the system, with totals up to 10 cm farther north. We’re also staring down a serious chill on the Prairies, as a lobe of the Polar Vortex swoops down from the Arctic, allowing some of the world’s most frigid air to spill over the three provinces.Temperatures will fall to brutally cold levels through the weekend. This Christmas will be the perfect day to stay indoors and cozy up with as many blankets and warm memories as possible. Saturday’s high temperatures will struggle to climb out of the -20s across most of the Prairies. The high in Calgary will reach a paltry -22°C, with a wind chill dipping as low as -27. It’ll be colder over in Prince Albert, where a high of -25°C will feel warm compared to a feels-like value of -31.In fact, Edmonton could experience its coldest Christmas Day on record. The all-time coldest high temperature on December 25 in Edmonton was -27.8°C back in 1971. The city will come very close to tying, if not breaking, this low-maximum temperature record on the big day this Saturday. It doesn’t end there. Temperatures will keep on falling through early next week. Highs will push the -30°C mark for the northern Prairies by next Tuesday, with wind chill values dipping well into the -30s.

Widespread floods destroy more than 1 400 homes, leave 15 people dead and 9 missing in the Republic of Congo - Heavy rain has been affecting most of the Republic of the Congo (also named Congo-Brazzaville) since the rainy season started in September, causing rivers overflow and triggering floods that have resulted in casualties and widespread damage. The worst affected departments include Likouala, Sangha, Cuvette, and Plateaux in the central-north as well as Kouilou and the capital Brazzaville in the south.1 15 people were killed, 9 are still missing, more than 6 550 are displaced people, and a total of over 46 650 affected people across the aforementioned departments, as of December 16. The data collected from the government and Congolese Red Cross agents by December 12 show that 311 houses have been damaged and 1 410 destroyed in Cuvette and Plateaux alone. In addition, equipment and people were reported missing in all localities.2 15 villages were flooded in the district of Pikounda in the department of Sangha. The district of Oyo, in Tchikapika and Loboko, bordering respectively the large rivers of Alima and Kouyou, is the most affected. The affected population is exposed to bad weather, poor hygiene and waterborne diseases due to the lack of clean water, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported. Heavy flooding has destroyed fields and livestock, drastically reducing livelihoods, it added. The government declared a state of emergency on November 29.

1.1 million people affected, 480 000 displaced and 28 000 homes damaged after Super Typhoon "Rai" hits the Philippines - At least 1 113 373 million people have been affected, 481 196 displaced and 28 000 homes damaged in the Philippines after the country was hit by Super Typhoon "Rai" (Odette) on December 16 and 17, 2021.1 The number of affected people in need, including displaced people, and damaged houses and infrastructure is expected to rise significantly in the coming days/weeks, as access to the affected areas is still very limited, DG ECHO reports. The typhoon made a total of 8 landfalls on December 16 and 17 - in Siargao Island, Cagdianao, Liloan, Padre Burgos, Pres Carlos Garcia, Bien Unido, Carcar, La Libertad and Roxas. While NDRRMC is officially reporting 156 casualties, 37 missing, and 275 injured, as of December 212, the police and media are reporting at least 375 fatalities and 56 people missing. A total of 75 areas in Region 5, Region 6, Region 12, CARAGA, and BARMM experienced flash flooding and flooding, NDRRMC reports. A total of 55 road and 4 bridge sections have been affected. 4 airports were reported non-operational, of which, 3 already resumed operations in MIMAROPA, Region 10. 122 ports were reported non-operational or have suspended trips. Of which, 55 ports resumed operations in CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Region 5, Region 7, Region 10. A total of 236 cities/municipalities experienced power outage/interruption in MIMAROPA, Region 6, Region 7, Region 8, Region 19, Region 11, CARAGA, and BARMM. Power has been restored in 28 cities/municipalities, as of December 21. There are 135 areas in MIMAROPA, Region 7, Region 8, Region 10, CARAGA, and BARMM which are still experiencing communication outage/issues. At least 6 894 ha (17 035 acres) of crops have been damaged. "We are looking at a major humanitarian crisis," said Ansherina Talavera, CARE Philippines Program Manager.3 "We are seeing hundreds of thousands of people displaced, and roads and power lines have been washed away. "Over 28 000 homes have been destroyed and more than 260 000 schools have been damaged. In some areas, power is not expected to return for at least a month. Access to some of the worst affected areas, particularly remote islands, remains a big concern due to destroyed private and public sea vessels." "The level of devastation caused by the typhoon is truly heartbreaking," said David Gazashvili, CARE Philippines Country Director. "We are seeing Haiyan-esque levels of destruction. From the places our teams and partners have reached, 80-90% of houses have sustained heavy damage."

Eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Reunion -A new eruption started at Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Reunion at around 23:30 UTC on December 21, 2021. The alert level was raised to 2-1. Trails in the upper part of the summit were closed for the public.The seismic crisis started at around 21:15 UTC, suggesting magma is rising toward the surface. Just a few minutes before the eruption started, instruments at the volcano recorded rapid ground deformation.By 23:30 UTC (03:30 LT on December 22), three eruptive fissures opened on the volcano's southern flank, followed by fourth several hours later.¹At 03:30 UTC on December 22, the most important activity was on the lowest fissure at an altitude of 2 km (1.2 miles).The last eruption of this volcano took place in April and May 2021.²

Acid rain warning for Tonga after massive eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai - Massive gaseous cloud produced by the eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in Tonga rose to an estimated altitude of 18 km (59 000 feet) above sea level, prompting Tonga Geological Services (TGS) to warn all citizens and tourists of possible acid rain in the region. The volcano is located about 65 km (40 miles) NW of the capital Nuku'alofa.While there were no injures reported as a result of the eruption that started on December 19¹, TGS said late Tuesday, December 21 that the dust and gas could result in acidic rainfall if mixed with water in the atmosphere, potentially poisoning drinking water and damaging skin and eyes."Symptoms of exposure to acid rain are itchiness and skin irritation, blurry and discoloration of vision if exposed to the eye," TGS said. "If eyes or skin are exposed to acidic rain, please see a medical doctor or physician for appropriate treatment."²TGS Head Geologist Taniela Kula reported spectacular bursts of lightning at the top of the 18 km (59 000 feet) high cloud, seen from the capital and Kanokupolu coast after 15:30 UTC (19:30 LT) on December 21.Kula said the eruption on December 19 initially reached an altitude of 3 - 16 km (9 800 - 52 500 feet) a.s.l. in a mushroom formation with a 30 km (18.5 miles) radius, and during the rest of the day reached 18 km over the 'Otu Mu'omu'a and 'Otumotu Lulunga of Ha'apai, as well as covering Tongatapu and 'Eua.³ At 12:40 UTC on December 20, the ash/dust eruption maintained an 18 km altitude and reached over the Vava’u Islands including Fonualei Island. By 15:00 UTC, it reached Niuafo’ou Island and Niuatoputapu and Tafahi Islands by 17:00. The last eruption of this volcano started on December 19, 2014, and ended on January 23 (± 3 days), 2015 (VEI 2). The eruption created a new island -- the site of this latest eruption.⁴

Melting Arctic ice will have catastrophic effects on the world, experts say. Here’s how. — If there is any doubt about climate change, look no further than the coldest regions of the planet for proof that the planet is warming at unprecedented rates, experts say. The Arctic is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the world, according to this year’s Arctic Report Card, released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, occurs when the sea ice, which is white, thins or disappears, allowing dark ocean or land surfaces to absorb more heat from the sun and release that energy back into the atmosphere. Widely considered by polar scientists as Earth’s refrigerator due to its role in regulating global temperatures, the mass melting of sea ice, permafrost and ice caps in the Arctic is hard evidence of global warming, according to experts. “The Arctic is the frontline for climate change,” climate scientist Jessica Moerman, vice president of science and policy at the Evangelical Environmental Network, a faith-based environmental group, told ABC News. “We should be paying careful attention to what is happening in the Arctic. It may seem like it’s far away, but the impacts come knocking on our front door.” The biggest long-term effect of warming in the Arctic will be sea level rise, Oscar Schofield, a professor of biological oceanography at Rutgers University, told ABC News. Melting from he Arctic — and the Greenland ice sheet in particular — is the largest contributor to sea level rise in the world. Although the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet is less than a millimeter per year of rising sea level, those small increments add up to between 6 inches to a foot since the Industrial Revolution — sea levels that infrastructure near oceans was not built to withstand, Schofield said. A bit “counterintuitively,” the loss from the Greenland ice sheet will have its greatest impact on places far away from the Arctic, in low latitudes such as South America due to changes in the global ocean currents, Twila Moon, an Arctic scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center and one of the authors of the Arctic Report Card, told ABC News.The environmental conditions in the Arctic affect weather systems across the world. The North and South poles act as the “freezers of the global system,” helping to circulate ocean waters around the planet in a way that helps to maintain the climates felt on land, Moon said. “What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” Moerman said. The jet stream, a band of strong winds moving west to east created by cold air meeting warmer air, helps to regulate weather around the globe. In the continental U.S., the jet stream forms where generally colder and drier Arctic air meets warmer and more humid air from the Gulf. But as temperatures in the Arctic warm, the jet stream, which is fueled by the temperature differences, weakens, Moerman said. Rather than a steady stream of winds, the jet stream has become more “wavy,” allowing very warm temperatures to extend usually far into the Arctic and very cold temperatures further south than usual, Moon said. “These cold air outbreaks are really severe,”

U.S. climate commitments abroad thrown into confusion - E&E News In an instant, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin sent the United States’ climate promises to the world into a tailspin. The conservative Democrat effectively removed the best path the U.S. has to fulfill the climate commitments it made to leaders worldwide by saying he would vote against his party’s signature climate legislation. It isn’t just the fate of U.S. climate policy that appears in tatters. It could reverberate into other corners of the globe and undermine efforts to keep deadly floods, fires, heat, hurricanes and sea-level rise from inflicting greater havoc. “If the U.S. doesn’t meet its target, everybody else needs to step up and make up for it. That’s the simple math of global [carbon] concentrations,” said John Larsen, director of the Rhodium Group, a research institute that analyses climate and energy policy. That could mean other countries have to accelerate their action to reduce emissions, and that’s a big ask if the U.S. — the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouses gases — isn’t seen to be doing its part. The Biden administration has pledged to slash U.S. emissions 50-52 percent by 2030. The goal helped put the world on track to halve emissions by that same end date — a target that scientists say is necessary to keep global temperatures from rising beyond the dangerous threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Already the planet has warmed by around 1.1 C since the Industrial Revolution. Getting there requires aggressive action starting now, according to climate modelers. The $1.7 billion climate and social spending bill, known as the "Build Back Better Act," would have put $550 billion toward things like clean energy tax credits and a methane fee for the oil and gas industry. An analysis by Rhodium in October showed that passage of both the infrastructure bill, which was signed into law last month, and "Build Back Better" are the foundation of reaching U.S. emissions targets. The two bills alone wouldn’t have gotten the U.S. all the way to its 50 percent goal by 2030. But the investments they carved out would have made it easier to do other things to slash emissions, said Larsen, who leads Rhodium’s U.S. power sector and energy systems research.

Biden Climate Agenda Now Hinges on Rules Exposed to Rewrite – Bloomberg --President Joe Biden will need to rely far more on regulation to meet his promise to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, after his roughly $2 trillion economic plan and its crucial climate provisions suffered a potentially fatal setback in Congress. The tax-and-spending bill rejected Sunday by West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin included a record $550 billion for climate measures, including a slew of tax credits for clean energy generators, the nuclear power industry and the makers of electric vehicles. As passed by the House, the Build Back Better bill included a first-time fee on the emission of methane from oil and gas operators.

Congress' climate inaction puts spotlight on the courts -Courts in the United States and abroad served as flashpoints on climate change this year as governments struggled to address the growing threat. U.S. climate litigation is expected to gain velocity in 2022, following a pair of unrelated Supreme Court actions concerning EPA’s carbon rules for power plants and local governments’ climate liability lawsuits. The legal battles have attracted heightened attention as the Biden administration fights to enact an ambitious climate change agenda amid congressional wrangling. “At the moment, this litigation is a sign of being stuck with second and third best options,“ said Jody Freeman, director of Harvard Law School’s Environmental and Energy Law Program and a former Obama White House adviser. “It’s a sign of the times: It’s a grind even with an administration that is doing its best, that cares about the issue. It’s a grind because Congress is only prepared to spend some money but not impose any kind of regulations or standards.” This fall, the Supreme Court made an extraordinary move to take up a challenge to EPA’s climate authority filed by Republican-led states and coal companies. The justices are expected to hear arguments in the case, West Virginia v. EPA, in 2022. “The decision threatens to have a seismic impact if the court rules in a way that limits EPA’s authority on climate change under the Clean Air Act,” said Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University. “The effect could be significant and sweeping.” The ruling in the case, which is expected by next summer, could offer the first look at how the Supreme Court’s new conservative majority will approach the question of how far the federal government can go to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Coal companies and red states have argued that EPA’s reach should be limited and that the matter should be left to lawmakers. “The fact that the court agreed to take the case doesn’t prove — but it certainly suggests — that the court is skeptical of broad assertions of EPA authority in this context,” said Jonathan Adler, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University. “There is a potential in this case for the court to preclude EPA from adopting anything remotely like the [Obama-era] Clean Power Plan, absent express congressional authorization, and that would be significant.”

Biden's big climate goal faces challenge with federal workforce -President Biden’s executive order setting the ambitious goal of having the government reach net-zero emissions by 2050 faces enormous challenges — including simply getting the entire federal workforce on board. The order represents one of the most important efforts yet to reduce U.S. emissions amid growing fears the world is running out of time to prevent devastating changes from global warming. The federal government is the largest single consumer of energy in the country, so getting its array of buildings and fleets of vehicles carbon-neutral in the next 30 years would be a massive achievement. It’s also one that climate groups, which prefer an even more ambitious timeframe, say the U.S. desperately needs to make. The problem is that getting the vast federal bureaucracy to change is difficult, and it will rely on thousands of government managers and workers doing their part even as they do their separate day-to-day work. “Tens of thousands of people — all busy, all under pressure — and their bosses tell them that what matters is how much money they spend, domestic content and small business. Now you want me to do sustainable too?” Steve Schooner, a professor of government procurement law at The George Washington University Law School, said in laying out the real-world challenges. He noted that there aren’t any rules governing the sustainability directive yet — and the government’s staff hasn’t been trained. This means new people will likely need to be hired as the government offers case studies and experiments with its proposals, and seeks new regulations to implement it. “They haven’t even started the rulemaking process for that yet,” Schooner said. “It’ll probably take years…we’ll spend over a trillion dollars on procurement before that happens.”.

U.S. can get to 100% clean energy with wind, water, solar and zero nuclear, Stanford professor says - A prominent Stanford University professor has outlined a roadmap for the United States to meet its total energy needs using 100% wind, water and solar by 2050. Mark Jacobson, a Stanford professor of civil and environmental engineering and the director of its Atmosphere/Energy Program, has been promoting the idea of all renewable energy as the best way forward for more than a decade. His latest calculations toward this ambitious goal were recently published in the scientific journal Renewable Energy.. Transitioning to a clean-energy grid should happen by 2035, the study advises, with at least 80% of that adjustment completed by 2030. For the purposes of Jacobson's study, his team factored in presumed population growth and efficiency improvements in energy to envision what that would look like in 2050. Jacobson first published a roadmap of renewable energy for all 50 states in 2015. This recent update of that 2015 work has a couple of notable improvements. First, Jacobson and his colleagues had access to more granular data for how much heat will be needed in buildings in every state for the coming two years in 30-second increments. "Before we didn't have that type of data available," Jacobson told CNBC. Also, the updated data makes use of battery storage while the first set of calculations he did relied on adding turbines to hydropower plants to meet peak demand, an assumption that turned out to be impractical and without political support for that technology, Jacobson said. In the analysis, Jacobson and his team used battery-storage technology to compensate for the inherent intermittency of solar and wind power generation — those times when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. The Achilles' heel of a completely renewable grid, many argue, is that it is not stable enough to be reliable. Blackouts have become a particular concern, notably in Texas this year and during the summer of 2020 in California. That's where four-hour batteries come in as a way to generate grid stability. "I discovered this all just because I have batteries in my own home," Jacobson told CNBC. "And I figured, oh, my God, this is so basic. So obvious. I can't believe nobody has figured this out."

DOE risks wasting 'significant funds' on CCS — audit - E&E News - The Department of Energy is at risk of wasting a significant amount of money on carbon capture and storage demonstration projects without greater oversight, according to a new Government Accountability Office report.The report, released yesterday by the watchdog agency, said although DOE has invested $1.1 billion in 11 carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects since 2009, only three of those projects ended up being built, with coal CCS projects “generally less successful” than projects at industrial facilities like chemical plants.Two of the 11 projects dropped out in the planning phases, according to GAO, and did not receive DOE funding.The coal CCS project that was built — the Petra Nova carbon capture facility in Texas — was the United States’ only large carbon capture project on a coal plant before it went offline in May 2020. NRG Energy Inc. cited low oil prices for the decision at the time (E&E News PM, July 28, 2020).GAO highlighted “significant risks” to DOE’s management of coal CCS demonstration projects, citing the department’s decision to fully fund projects in their early stages, as well as taking a larger share of early stage funding than typical at DOE for such projects.DOE also failed to adhere to cost controls aimed at limiting the department’s financial exposure, repeatedly continuing to fund projects that weren’t meeting required performance milestones, a GAO spokesperson said. That included amending original cooperative agreements to reduce a project’s cost-share requirement and increasing the government’s share, the report said.As part of its findings, GAO recommended that Congress institute ongoing monitoring reports “to provide greater oversight and accountability of DOE CCS demonstration project expenditures.” “Absent such a mechanism, DOE is at risk of expending significant funds on CCS demonstration projects that have little likelihood of success,” the report said.

Carbon Pipelines in the Hawkeye State - by Lambert Strether --While ingesting krill in the news flow the other day, I nearly choked on a story that seemed so cray cray, yet so apposite for the zeitgest, that I felt sure it had bipartisan support, and that we were charging ahead with it. And so it proved. The story: Carbon pipelines. Wait, you say. Wehave our carbon pipelines; they wouldn’t keep spilling gunk all over everything if we didn’t already have them. But these carbon pipelines are different: These are carbon capture pipelines that will convey carbon from sources to sinks, where the carbon will be sequestered, deep underground. Which is great, since nothing will fundamentally change, except for the land under which the pipeline will run, and for the owners of that land. Two such pipelines — the Midwest Carbon Express, and the charmingly named Heartland Greenway System (see? Like Tolkien!) — are proposed for Iowa. Here is a map: The Des Moines Register explains:Two companies — Summit Carbon Solutions and Navigator CO2 Ventures — want to build pipelines that will be used to move carbon dioxide captured from ethanol, fertilizer and other agricultural industrial plants.The companies plan to use pressure to liquify the carbon dioxide, transport it and then inject it deep underground where it will be permanently sequestered. Summit Carbon plans to sequester carbon in North Dakota; Navigator CO2 in Illinois.Both companies have started the process to get hazardous liquid pipeline permits from the Iowa Utilities Board. Summit says the project, which the company calls the world’s largest, will cost $4.5 billion; Navigator, at least $2 billion.In this post, I’ll look at carbon pipeline politics (nationally and in Iowa) and technology (unproven and dangerous). Then I’ll look at resistance to carbon pipelines- in Iowa, primarily from landowners and Iowa counties, and then conclude.

Pipeline firm fights order to name Iowa landowners in path --(AP) — A company that wants to build a pipeline to carry carbon dioxide from ethanol plants in Iowa and several other states to North Dakota where it would be stored underground is fighting Iowa regulators’ order to reveal the names of business and governments in the path of the $4.5 billion project. Summit Carbon Solutions has appealed to the Iowa Utilities Board and asked a court to intervene because it says the order would force it to identify many of the individual farmers who own land along the route because the land is often held by trusts or family corporations, according to The Des Moines Register. Regulators said the names of individual landowners could be kept private, but businesses and governments that own land in the pipeline’s path across 30 Iowa counties would have to be revealed. “The board should reconsider its order and hold that business entity names and addresses — the vast majority of which belong to small family farm operations — be held confidential,” Summit said in its appeal. Environmental groups argue that keeping the names secret will only make it harder to organize opposition to the project. Jess Mazour with the Sierra Club’s Iowa Chapter said Friday the information should be made public so landowners can join forces to protect their interests. “The minute landowners know they’re not alone, that they don’t have to feel hopeless, that there are things they can do to protect their land, they don’t want to sign” pipeline easements, Mazour said. “And Summit doesn’t want that to happen.”

Goldman Sachs mulling financed emissions reduction -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. plans to reduce the carbon footprint of its fossil-fuel clients by a fifth, and slash emissions in other key customer groups as it acts on a pledge to make its business climate neutral by mid-century. By 2030, the Wall Street firm intends to have lowered the financed emissions of oil and gas companies by up to 22%, compared with a 2019 baseline, it said Thursday. For auto-manufacturing clients, the goal is as much as a 54% reduction, and for power-sector customers it’s up to 65%. Goldman has been involved this year in organizing about $10.5 billion of bonds and loans for fossil-fuel clients, compared with $10.2 billion in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The New York-based company also is among six lenders that are facing calls from shareholders to take faster action to address their role in financing climate change. The Sierra Club Foundation and Trillium Asset Management are part of a group that filed resolutions with the banks, requesting that they ensure their financing doesn’t add to new fossil-fuel supplies as required by the International Energy Agency’s so-called 2050 scenario. Banks are slowly adjusting their business models after decades spent enabling some of the world’s worst emitters of greenhouse gases. Since the 2015 Paris climate agreement, global banks provided about $4 trillion in financing to the fossil-fuel industry, despite warnings from scientists that the current rate of emissions risks condemning the planet to a climate catastrophe. This year, the finance industry shifted gears. Goldman is among a number of major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Wells Fargo & Co., that joined the Net Zero Banking Alliance, committing them to net-zero emissions by 2050. “We’re making progress,” Goldman Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said in Thursday’s statement. “A more sustainable future is within reach, and Goldman Sachs is determined to do our part to help the world get there.” Goldman said its efforts to reduce emissions via loans and debt underwriting focus on industries in which it sees “an opportunity to proactively engage our clients, deploy capital required for transition, and invest in new commercial solutions to drive decarbonization in the real economy.” The bank also said it chose sectors in which it has sufficient data and the tools that allow it to engage with clients. Goldman, which reported in line with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, will track emissions intensity to gauge its success. The bank said such an approach reflects “the close tie between the level of a company’s emissions and the scale of its production.” The bank also said its framework will incorporate the use of carbon offsets “where these are high quality, additional and verified.”

Halt hydrogen hype (op ed) Hydrogen energy produced from natural gas can have a higher carbon footprint than using either natural gas or coal directly for heat. Hydrogen types are not the same: Green hydrogen production is based on renewable sources, yellow hydrogen comes from nuclear energy, grey from fossil fuels and blue specifically from fossil gas. Blue hydrogen, the type proposed for Chickahominy Power Plant, starts with converting methane to hydrogen and carbon dioxide by using heat, steam and pressure. The process takes a large amount of energy, usually provided by burning more gas. Blue hydrogen is promoted by the gas industry to create another invented “bridge” fuel instead of transitioning directly to renewable energy. Hydrogen hype advances a new generation of gas plants at a time when a majority embraces climate action and awareness grows about the climate harms of methane from fossil gas. Many experts suggest that hydrogen has a key role in some forms of energy generation in the not-too-distant future. Independent voices also make clear that combining hydrogen made from dirty fuels with effective carbon capture in current blue hydrogen will not help the climate. Furthermore, there is no place for use of hydrogen in today’s baseline power plants, and blue hydrogen is an especially poor match for plants used only during peak hours because of prohibitive costs. Studies to date aren’t clear about the full costs of producing ‘net-zero’ blue hydrogen. Green hydrogen from renewable sources may be cheaper than grey hydrogen from fossil fuels by 2030. By 2050 green hydrogen is predicted to be one-third the cost of blue hydrogen.The Chickahominy Power Plant permitted for Charles City County would produce 6.5 million tons of CO2e carbon dioxide annually — destroying any illusion that a gas plant is any less damaging to our atmosphere. Following permitting of the Chickahominy plant, developers announced use of untested hydrogen technology that could increase climate and water impacts. Environmental professionals and environmental justice organizations like Concerned Citizens of Charles City County (C5) have raised concerns about hydrogen to Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) staff and administration, citizen oversight boards, and the project developer. In each instance, concerns were not addressed. Balico, LLC, the multinational developer of the Chickahominy Pipeline, LLC, a new 83- mile pipeline proposed as a gas source for the Charles City merchant gas plant, in spite of the location of more proximate gas supply lines, tried to circumvent SCC regulation of land acquisition and project construction. After SCC staff recommended regulatory oversight of the gas project, developers used a December 9 Open House to present inaccurate greenwash about hydrogen to make these controversial gas projects more palatable at a time when fossil fuels are facing regulatory and financial hurdles. State agencies must examine the evidence before accepting an unregulated change at the 1,650 MW gas plant.

'In the end, all hydrogen needs to be green': CEO of German energy giant RWE - The CEO of German energy company RWE has called for the use of hydrogen in sectors where electrification is just not an option, telling CNBC that "in the end, all hydrogen needs to be green." In an interview earlier this week it was put to Markus Krebber that Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess had argued hydrogen was not the answer for the German automotive giant. "I actually agree with Herbert Diess because … he says that hydrogen is not the solution for passenger transportation and I think here, electrification — direct electrification — is the solution," Krebber replied. "But we need hydrogen for those parts of the economy which cannot be electrified," he said. "So let's think about aviation, maritime transportation, heavy duty trucks, but also … steel and chemicals." Diess has previously expressed strong views on the use of hydrogen in cars. "It's time for politicians to accept science," he tweeted back in February. "Green hydrogen is needed for steel, chemical, aero … and should not end up in cars," he said. "Far too expensive, inefficient, slow and difficult to rollout and transport. After all: no #hydrogen cars in sight." Hydrogen, which has a diverse range of applications and can be deployed in a wide range of industries, can be produced in a number of ways. If the electricity used in this process comes from a renewable source such as wind or solar then some call it green or renewable hydrogen. Krebber explained it was important to be pragmatic about color codes. "In the end, all hydrogen needs to be green, because green hydrogen is the only fuel which is ... fully decarbonized," he said. In the meantime, industries needed to take decisions to invest in new facilities and make them "H2 ready." "Of course, there is not enough green hydrogen available in the short term, so you need to allow them to run it first on natural gas then, maybe, on all other colors [of] hydrogen … especially blue," he said. "But the moment green hydrogen is available, to the extent needed, they should switch to green hydrogen." Blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced using natural gas — a fossil fuel — with the CO2 emissions generated during the process captured and stored.

'Good starts' in the climate crisis aren't cutting it - As we finish up the first year of the Biden administration, it’s hard to decipher exactly where this country is headed. I mean, watching President Biden speak at the UN climate conference COP26 last month was a moment so many of us had been working toward. You see, my home state of Louisiana produces more greenhouse gas per capita, and stands to lose more from climate change than any other state in America. Yet, the number of refineries and plants in Louisiana keeps going up, just like our infant mortality rate. The president stood before the world’s leaders and confidently said that “this is a decisive decade in which we have an opportunity to prove ourselves.” But when it comes to climate action, has the United States even begun to prove itself? I feel like we just have a mountain of “good starts” that are surrounded by loopholes, no accountability — and no long-term plans. In reality, after COP26, 2021 has looked more like business as usual for the oil and gas industry. In fact, the current Interior Department has approved more drilling permits than their predecessors and is set to hold another offshore lease salesoon, but this time near the fragile coastline of Alaska. In November, the Interior Department hosted its first oil and gas lease sale since a Louisiana judge decided to halt the administration’s moratorium back in June. Now, I don’t want anyone not to comply with the law, but there are some really good attorneys out there that told me nowhere does it say that an oil and gas lease sale must contain a certain amount of acreage, let alone the 80 million acres the Department offered. Not only that but they used outdated and completely false reasoning for the lease sale. The agency claimed that not having the lease sale would mean more greenhouse gases, which is a direct talking point from the oil and gas lobby themselves! After Hurricane Ida this fall, there were major oil and gas spills — some of them could even be seen from space. The common denominator of all of those spills? They all came from the 18,000 miles of legally abandoned oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. What does this have to do with the rest of the country? Well, every parish (county) in Louisiana has had at least 10 disaster declarations on the books since March 2020, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Guess who funds FEMA. I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the oil and gas industry. It’s every single taxpayer in this country. In an effort to be “greener,” industry is hanging their hat on something called liquified natural gas (LNG). Natural gas is methane, and it is extremely flammable and under certain conditions explosive. The LNG export terminal business has set up shop in the Gulf Coast region due to plenty of federal and state loopholes.In an effort to streamline paperwork, the Department of Energy doesn’t evaluate the environmental or community implications of these export terminals and instead leaves it up to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The commission is still debating if considering surrounding communities when doling out permits should be a thing. However, a Washington, D.C. circuit judge recently thought otherwise and ordered FERC to perform an actual environmental and community review in Brownsville, Texas. It should also be said that the same commission is also still waffling on the notion of whether they should examine the effect of greenhouse gases when considering a pipeline permit. I’m no rocket scientist, but I’m thinking they should. The writing is on the wall. Without having long-term plans, federal accountability or closing loopholes, the parasitic relationship that the oil and gas industry has with the United States will continue. In 2020 alone, the fossil fuel industry received $5.9 trillion in subsidies and $111 billion in GDP, yet taxpayers are on the hook to clean up after them? Hold these people accountable! Congress and the Senate must close the loopholes that don’t consider our communities and our environment and get plans in place so that we can live up to the standard that was set for us at COP26.

Reversing Trump Rollback, Biden’s EPA Announces Historically Ambitious Vehicle Emissions Standards - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Monday finalized greenhouse gas emission standards for cars and light trucks that it says are the most ambitious ever. The new standards replace lower standards set by the Trump administration, which were already a rollback of Obama-era standards. New cars will now have to average 55 miles per gallon by 2026, which will keep 3.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere by 2050. “The final rule for light duty vehicles reflect[s] core principles of this Administration: We followed the science, we listened to stakeholders, and we are setting robust and rigorous standards that will aggressively reduce the pollution that is harming people and our planet – and save families money at the same time,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a press release. “At EPA, our priority is to protect public health, especially in overburdened communities, while responding to the President’s ambitious climate agenda. Today we take a giant step forward in delivering on those goals, while paving the way toward an all-electric, zero-emissions transportation future.” We're taking big, bold action to combat climate change! Today, we're proud to announce our final rule for GHG emission standards for the light-duty sector. Learn more about what this means for our planet and our communities: https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-finalizes-greenhouse-gas-standards-passenger-vehicles-paving-way-zero-emissions\u00a0\u2026pic.twitter.com/wFMiO6mOuL — U.S. EPA (@U.S. EPA) 1640019692 The new standards are the latest salvo in a long-running tug-of-war over the greenhouse gas emissions of cars and light trucks for the first half of the 2020s. In 2012, the Obama administration set the standard at 51 miles per gallon by 2025, The New York Times reported. Then, the Trump administration rolled it back to about 44 miles per gallon by 2026. The Biden administration’s final rule is more ambitious than the Obama standards and also about six percent higher than the agency’s initial proposal in August, HuffPost reported. That said, the Trump rollback has already impacted the past two years. “You can never go back and get the reduction I’d helped set for 2021 and 2022. We lost those two years under Trump,” Jeff Alson, a former senior engineer and policy adviser to the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality who worked on the Obama-era standards, told HuffPost. “This rulemaking recaptures what would have been the lost year of 2023.” The EPA is also planning to establish new rules for model year 2027 and beyond that will set standards for multiple pollutants and pave the way for a zero-emission fleet, the agency said.

Biden’s new mileage rule cuts climate pollution from cars, SUVs - The Washington PostThe Biden administration finalized a rule Monday to cut climate pollutants from new cars and light trucks, which will keep billions of tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere and change the kinds of vehicles Americans drive.The new limits on tailpipe emissions for the next four years mark President Biden’s biggest step yet to tackle climate change, but the move comes as critical components of his plan for an all-electric future just suffered a major blow on Capitol Hill. On Sunday, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) announced he would not support his party’s Build Back Better plan, which would have provided billions in federal support for building charging stations and encouraging consumers to buy electric vehicles.The administration had hoped that funding in the roughly $2 trillion package Democrats have been trying to pass on a strictly party-line vote in the Senate could accelerate America’s transition away from fossil fuels, and make it less likely that industries would challenge new climate rules in court. But given Manchin’s staunch opposition, Biden may have to rely on his executive authority to advance his environmental agenda.The new standards on their own cannot ensure that half of new cars sold by the end of the decade in the United States will be electric or plug-in hybrids, as Biden had promised. With the rule in place, regulators say, those cars will make up about a fifth of sales by 2026.But automakers have repeatedly argued that zero-emissions vehicles, which make up less than 5 percentof sales, will not make major strides without the kinds of generous subsidies and tax breaks included in Democrats’ budget package. The bill, which now faces an uncertain future, would save car buyers up to $12,500 in taxes for going electric.The standards for model years 2023 to 2026, signed Monday morning by EPA Administrator Michael Regan, require that cars, SUVs and pickup trucks release an average of 161 grams of carbon dioxide per mile by 2026. The new Biden standards are equivalent to an average of roughly 55 miles per gallon by 2026 in laboratory testing. The average figure appearing on window stickers — and advertised EPA mileage — would be 40 mpg.The agency decided to issue tailpipe emissions tighter than those it proposed in August for 2025 and 2026.

How EPA’s power plant rule dodged industry ‘fear-spreading’ - A decade ago, the power industry’s forecasts were abuzz with alarm: Soaring electricity rates. Coal plant closures. Job losses. Grid reliability problems.“Will the lights go out?” the Congressional Research Service asked rhetorically as EPA neared completion of its rule — which marks its 10-year anniversary this week — to limit power plant emissions of mercury and other hazardous pollutants.The answer, as both the agency and the nonpartisan research service concluded, was no.While EPA’s estimate of the future costs and benefits provoked a long-running legal clash, the agency’s predictions of the real-world consequences were considerably more accurate than industry’s.“There was a lot of exaggerated fear-spreading,” Bob Perciasepe, EPA’s deputy administrator at the time, said in an interview this month. But in hindsight, he said, "I personally have a sense of pride that EPA did a really good job of anticipating — to really think through and listen to — what the potential problems were.”Those regulations — coupled with low natural gas prices and other regulations — helped drive a historic shift away from coal power generation and slash the staggering amounts of air pollution that went with it. Even some power industry representatives concede that the predicted reliability gaps never materialized. In part, they say, that was because EPA granted additional compliance time.Meanwhile, compliance costs for the rule — formally known as the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, or MATS — were almost certainly far less than the agency’s estimates (Greenwire, Nov. 10). And independent scientists and economists have found the dollar value of the health benefits to be much greater. “The science is clear: mercury emissions from U.S. power plants cause a variety of serious health harms, and the value of reducing emissions is orders of magnitude higher than EPA’s initial effort at monetization for the 2011 rulemaking,” researchers wrote in a Harvard University paper released last week. Power plant releases of mercury, a brain-damaging toxin that poses a particular threat to babies, plunged from 29 tons in 2010 to 2.6 tons last year, EPA numbers show.

Despite gas industry setbacks in N.C., building electrification far from imminent - When North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, vetoed a bill on Dec. 9 that would have preempted local governments from banning gas hookups, it was the second apparent blow to the industry in the state in as many months. In November, state regulators greenlighted a Duke Energy efficiency incentive program over strenuous objections from local gas distribution companies, which argued the scheme would lose them customers.But while clean energy and environmental justice advocates lauded both developments, the setbacks for the industry were largely symbolic. Even if the GOP-controlled legislature fails to override Cooper’s veto, local governments here will probably still lack the authority to follow the footsteps of New York City, which last week moved to phase out gas appliances in buildings.At the same, state utility regulators appear leaps and bounds from encouraging, much less requiring, buildings to be all-electric.Except perhaps for gas stoves and their popular blue flames, most fuel-burning devices in the home don’t get a second thought. Yet a growing body of evidence shows these appliances create indoor pollution that could cause and exacerbate respiratory diseases such as asthma. Outdoors, they’re a palpable contributor to climate change.In areas like New York City, where gas use is especially prevalent, onsite fossil fuel combustion is by far the largest source of climate-warming pollution, a whopping 70%, per city sustainability officials. Even in North Carolina, where only about a quarter of homes use gas heat, the fraction is about 8%, according to the Rocky Mountain Institute.The twin threat of climate and air pollution has prompted a nationwide push for phasing out the use of gas and other fossil fuel appliances in buildings, a solution called “building electrification.”Advancing technology has buoyed the effort, making electric appliances increasingly as affordable and well-performing as their gas counterparts — with none of the indoor air emissions. Boosters say even the vaunted blue flame has met its match: electric induction cooktops, which use magnets to create heat more quickly and precisely.Though the electric units will initially run on a grid still partially supplied by gas and coal, climate advocates e nvision they’ll be powered entirely by carbon-free energy by midcentury, ideally including onsite batteries and rooftop solar panels. Electrify everything, their mantra goes, then make the electric grid 100% clean.

New England gas, power spot prices plunge on high demand as gas supply floods in - Spot gas and power prices in New England dropped Dec. 20, despite a forecast for sustained elevated demand through Dec. 24, as more gas flows into the Northeast from Canada and less flows out of the region. New England gas demand benchmark Algonquin city-gates saw its largest day-on-day increase and highest price since January 2018 Dec. 17, when the spot price leaped $24.20 on the day to $28.06/MMBtu for Dec. 18-20 flows. The location plummeted $20.945 Dec. 20 in morning trading to $7.635/MMBtu for next-day flows, preliminary Platts settlement data showed. In power pricing, Mass Hub day-ahead on-peak for next-day delivery tumbled more than $100 Dec. 20 on the Intercontinental Exchange to price around $90/MWh. With this change, the contract normalized from its highest price in nearly four years, Platts pricing data showed. Recent volatility in regional gas and power pricing has largely been driven by wide swings in temperatures. The average Northeast temperature dropped to 32 degrees Fahrenheit Dec. 20 from 52 F Dec. 17, and a winter weather advisory was issued for Vermont and New Hampshire Dec. 18-20. This temperature drop followed a stretch of substantially above-average temperatures Dec. 10-17. The recent cold weather is forecast to continue through Dec. 24, with CustomWeather forecasting the average temperature to remain in the 30s F, keeping gas and power demand robust. ISO New England peakload demand was forecast to remain above 17 GW over the next three days (Dec. 21-23), with demand easing below 17 GW Dec. 24. Platts Analytics forecast that total Northeast demand could reach 30 Bcf/d by the end of the week for the first time this winter, 5 Bcf/d higher than Dec. 18-20's elevated demand. The Dec. 20 price drop represents a shift away from the recent temperature-driven price fluctuations, as the dramatically higher prices attracted more supply into the region. Inflows into the Northeast ramped up 950 MMcf from Dec. 17 to Dec. 20, reaching an eight-day high of 2.9 Bcf Dec. 20, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics data. The bulk of the higher inflows came from Canada, which doubled over this time to 1.36 Bcf Dec. 20. Along with higher inflows into the Northeast, Platts Analytics data shows that total outflows dropped by around 500 MMcf/d, effectively keeping more gas in the region. Northeast gas production increased throughout the weekend as well, potentially aided by the approved in-service of Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line's Leidy South expansion by the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Dec. 17. Transco's letter requesting approval indicated that the remaining stage of the project, the Hilltop Loop, could be fully placed in-service as soon as Dec. 18, according to the company's Dec. 17 filing. Platts Analytics data shows Northeast gas production rose around 260 MMcf/d to 34.9 Bcf Dec. 20. Despite Dec. 20's price drop, longer-duration packages show lingering higher prices, suggesting more volatility may be in store.

Coal isn't dying yet. 2021 brought a record surge in use. - In the span of a year, coal power generation went from a historic drop to an all-time high. In 2021, global electricity generation from coal increased by nine percent, the highest in history, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency, or IEA. Most of that increase came from power plants in China and India, where the need for electricity jumped by nine and 12 percent, respectively. According to the IEA, Europe saw a 12 percent increase while the U.S. went up by 17 percent – despite nearly a decade of declines in coal power generation in both regions. “Coal and emissions from coal are stubborn,” said IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol in a press call. “Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming.” In 2020, when restaurants, theaters, offices, and many industries went dormant due to COVID-19, electricity demand shrank. As a result, coal power generation dropped by four percent; a first in decades. But in 2021, after relatively successful vaccine roll-outs and the relaxation of lockdown measures in most developed countries, economic activities resumed and power needs mounted. Because renewable energy projects couldn’t meet demand, the IEA says oil and gas In the U.S. and Europe the historic increase may be a blip as coal declines and cleaner energy sources accelerate – a stop-gap as renewable infrastructure continues to grow. But China and India’s influence on the coal market cannot be understated, . Both countries represent two-thirds of the global coal demand and last year’s increase, Jackson says, can be partially explained by the fact that the Chinese and Indian governments bolstered coal-based industries as part of COVID-recovery efforts. “These two economies – dependent on coal and with a combined population of almost 3 billion people – hold the key to future coal demand,” Sadamori said. According to the IEA’s projections, as more economies recover from the pandemic, coal demand will increase, peaking in 2022 and staying elevated until at least 2024. The IEA says the report should serve as a reality check of government policies, which they say are insufficient to curb coal use and its carbon emissions. The report, Fatih Berol says, “is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero.”

Historic coal ash raises concerns at iconic Illinois coal plant site - Energy News Network As owner NRG proposes a remediation plan for coal ash covered under state and federal law, other, older deposits that are exempt from the laws may pose a greater risk to water contamination and future redevelopment.Coal ash will remain in the ground at the site of a closing coal plant on the shores of Lake Michigan in Waukegan, Illinois.Owner NRG explained its plans on Dec. 15 at a public meeting required under the state’s coal ash law. Residents at the virtual meeting voiced concerns, given that significant groundwater contamination has been documented at the plant.NRG officials said their modeling shows capping the coal ash in its East Pond and leaving it in place is safe, and that groundwater flowing toward Lake Michigan is not contaminated at levels above legal standards.Meanwhile, older coal ash dumped long before current state and federal laws took effect may be a bigger concern, according to environmental experts, in terms of both groundwater contamination and limiting future redevelopment at the site.Coal ash has been dumped around the Waukegan coal plant since at least the 1940s, according to historical photos and other evidence introduced in years-long legal proceedings about historic coal ash at four Illinois plants now owned by NRG. Much of it is dispersed throughout the site, including berms and other structural components actually built with coal ash, according to environmentalists and legal filings.Not only does this historic coal ash pose a risk to groundwater, advocates fear the presence of coal ash will hamper redevelopment of the site and its surrounding area,which has become a regional symbol of the need for and potential of a “just transition.” Waukegan is home to at least five Superfund sites, and the town has a largely Latinx immigrant population, with locals increasingly mobilizing around environmental justice.The Waukegan coal plant is slated to close next year. Residents have long demanded a robust transition process protecting jobs and the tax base, and expressed hopes of seeing things like a park, brewery or educational facility at the lakefront site.

Mine Reclamation Funding: A 'Game Changer' for Eastern Ohio - Efforts to rectify the lingering environmental legacy of coal mining in Ohio are getting a big financial boost.  The new federal infrastructure law includes $11.3 billion to fund abandoned mine cleanup in 25 states. In Ohio, there are more than 3,400 abandoned mines, according to the Department of Natural Resources, posing health and safety risks to people and the environment. Marissa Lautzenheiser, director of northern programs for the group Rural Action, cited lists of potential projects where the estimated $550 million Ohio will receive would be well-spent. "This is a game changer," Lautzenheiser asserted. "The landscape of eastern Ohio is going to look a lot different in five years, let alone in ten years, than it would have without this investment." She pointed out the funding is especially important for Ohio communities hit hard by the coal industry decline, because it will create 730 jobs, nearly $2 billion in economic output and $660 million in labor income. Since the federal Abandoned Mine Lands Program was created in 1977, roughly 978,000 acres and $8 billion worth of damage has been cleaned up in the region. But it represents only about one-fourth of the total damage. Lautzenheiser noted the thousands of remaining unclaimed sites have continual issues. "If you build your home adjacent to or on an underground mine, you can find your basement floor collapsing into air shafts," Lautzenheiser outlined. "You can have acid mine drainage, where the water in the stream in your backyard is actually orange because of iron and other heavy metals." Dana Kuhnline, legislative coordinator for the group Appalachian Voices, said with a large influx of money, the goal is to address the environmental hazards. "State agencies and the local reclamation partners have all been pretty strapped," Kuhnline acknowledged. "They've been doing a lot of what I've heard described as 'chasing landslides.' So, they're only able to address the most severe or dangerous incidences of abandoned mine lands that are in communities."  The full cost of reclaiming all remaining abandoned mine land nationwide is expected to exceed $20 billion, according to the Ohio Valley River Institute.

France Closes Two Nuclear Plants After Finding Cracks In The Infrastructure - Électricité de France S.A., commonly known as EDF, a French electric utility company primarily owned by the state, shuttered two nuclear power plants after routine safety inspections found cracks at one power plant. EDF wrote in a press release, "preventive maintenance checks on the primary circuit of reactor number 1 of the Civaux Nuclear Power Plant" found cracks due to corrosion on the pipes."Checks initiated on the same equipment of reactor number 2 of the Civaux Nuclear Power Plant revealed similar defects," the French power giant said. France's Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) was informed about cracks detected close to the welds on the reactor's pipes.EDF temporarily closed Civaux to "replace the affected parts on the two Civaux reactors, the work being governed by a technical instruction prepared in cooperation with the ASN, which leads to extend the shutdown of the two reactors," it said. EDF has also chosen to close two reactors at another nuclear plant at Chooz in the northeastern Ardennes department for inspections. Both power plants use the same reactor technology.The temporarily closing of Civaux's reactors and Chooz's reactors will reduce one terawatt-hour of output and couldn't come at the worst time as cooler weather sent French power contracts to a record high earlier this week.A power reduction could suggest strain on the power grid amid cooler weather and higher power prices.

Electricity prices in Europe surge to record highs - European power prices surged to record highs over the past couple of days after France announced the closure of four of its largest nuclear reactors. The crisis is further exacerbated by already very high prices of natural gas and cold temperatures. By the end of the month, most of the continent will endure below average temperatures, further increasing power demand.French power giant EDF found two faults close to the welds on the pipes of the safety injection-system circuit in two reactors of the Civaux power plant last week. The company had stopped one reactor at the Civaux plant for a routine 10-year checkup in August and in November it also halted its second reactor at the site protectively, previously planning to restart it on December 24.¹However, as a result of the fault discovery, an outage at the plant will now last longer than expected, the company said, adding that it would also halt production in its plant in Chooz because it uses the same kind of reactors.The two facilities make up almost 10% of the French nuclear capacity and they are the biggest and newest units of 56 in the country. Nuclear power accounts for around 70% of the country's electricity mix.The shutdowns will make the market even more jittery just as temperatures are set to plunge way below average for much of the continent, Bloomberg reports.²Peak demand in France alone is set to jump 7% to above 80 gigawatts next week, according to Bloomberg's model."The market is already very nervous and extremely sensitive, and the timing of this info could not have been much worse for market participants hoping for a drop in power prices," said Bo Palmgren, chief operating officer at MFT Energy, a trading company in Aarhus, Denmark.Since France is a key exporter of electricity to neighboring countries the effects of the shutdowns will reverberate in Germany, Spain, Italy, and Britain.German 2022 power jumped to as high as 230 EUR a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG. The January contract surged as much as 52% to a record 600 EUR, closely followed by power for February adding 33% to 570 EUR."Day-ahead electricity prices across much of Europe set fresh and frightening record highs. Germany jumps to an incredible €431 per MWh. At current prices, energy-intensive industries will rather shut down and re-sell their power on the spot market," Bloomberg's Javier Blas said.

Why there's no permanent nuclear waste dump in the U.S., despite $44 billion allocation - The federal government has a fund of $44.3 billion earmarked for spending on a permanent nuclear waste disposal facility in the United States.It began collecting money from energy customers for the fund in the 1980s, and the money is now earning about $1.4 billion in interest each year.But plans to build a site in Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were scuttled by state and federal politics, and there's been a lack of political will to find other solutions. The result is that the U.S. does not have the infrastructure to dispose of radioactive nuclear waste in a deep geologic repository, where it can slowly lose its radioactivity over the course of thousands of years without causing harm.However, with the effects of climate change becoming more obvious, investors and some political activists are renewing interest in nuclear as a source of energy that does not emit climate-warming carbon dioxide. That is forcing proponents to confront the thorny problem of waste again. Congress established the Nuclear Waste Fund in 1982, requiring anyone who was getting some of their electricity from nuclear energy to pay a small amount of money to deal with the waste. From 1982 through 1987, the Department of Energy explored nine sites for permanent waste disposal, and eventually whittled that list down to three. Yucca Mountain in Nevada was the first choice, with sites in Washington and Texas rounding out the top of the list. Some members of Congress were concerned that analyzing multiple sites would cost too much, and so in 1987, Congress amended its 1982 law to focus all of its attention on Yucca Mountain. "Some would say Congress made a prudent choice, but other would say that Yucca was prematurely down-selected because the Nevada delegation had the least political clout on the Hill," Rod McCullum, the senior director of decommissioning and used fuel at the Nuclear Energy Institute, told CNBC. "Over time the latter view tended to prevail, and the 1987 Amendment is now commonly referred to as the 'screw Nevada' bill," McCullum said. The 1987 amendment also established a program to find a interim storage solution, but that project shut down in 1994 because it wasn't working, Nesbit said. In 2002, then-President George W. Bush signed a resolution establishing the Yucca Mountain repository, but Barack Obama campaigned against it, and ended up cutting funding for Yucca Mountain in his 2010 budget. The political opposition in Nevada "probably wouldn't have made a difference if Senator Reid had not become such a powerful political figure, but he did and he used his influence to stop the project," Nesbit told CNBC. "Unfortunately, Yucca Mountain, like so many things, has become a partisan issue, which makes it that much harder to get anything done."

FERC Proposes $40M Fine Over Alleged Rover Pipeline Violations; Steps Up Industry Enforcement FERC plans to fine Energy Transfer Partners LP and subsidiary Rover Pipeline LLC $40 million over alleged violations during work on a 2017 horizontal directional drill (HDD) at the Tuscarawas River in Stark County, OH. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission handed down a show cause order during last week’s monthly meeting, formalizing its intent to impose the fine based on the findings of its Office of Enforcement. After an investigation, enforcement staff determined that Rover contractors “intentionally and routinely” added diesel fuel and other unapproved substances to the drilling mud to speed up completion of the Tuscarawas HDD during construction of the 711-mile Appalachia-to-Midwest natural gas conduit. Rover also failed to properly monitor the right-of-way at the HDD site, and the developer improperly disposed of contaminated drilling mud, according to FERC. The Tuscarawas HDD was the site of an inadvertent release of 2 million gallons of drilling mud that reached the surface and impacted a nearby wetland, regulators found. The incident resulted in construction delays and additional regulatory scrutiny for Rover, including the start of FERC’s enforcement investigation after test results indicated the presence of diesel fuel in the drilling mud.. In its latest action, FERC staff alleged that from April 2-13, 2017, Rover contractors working at the Tuscarawas HDD “intentionally added toxic diesel fuel, hydraulic oil, contaminated fluids, and non-toxic but unapproved lubricants to combat drilling difficulties and keep up with drilling progress demands. Witnesses testified that at least seven Rover contractor HDD crew members added diesel fuel to the drilling mud…and that this was done intentionally and routinely.”Energy Transfer, for its part, through a spokesperson denied knowing that diesel fuel was being used at the Tuscarawas HDD site.In its order, FERC said it had not received a response from the pipeline operator “to the substance” of the allegations and noted that the Natural Gas Act makes the developer “solely responsible” for the actions of its contractors.

FERC Gets Tougher on Natural Gas Pipeline Pollution Violators - Toughening its enforcement of environmental infractions on large completed natural gas pipelines during construction, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said Dec. 16 it will propose $40 million in civil penalties against Energy Transfer Partners LP and its Rover Pipeline LLC unit for both intentional and inadvertent discharge of diesel fuel and other toxics during drilling of the Rover pipeline in Ohio. FERC also said it is weighing a penalty against Midship pipeline in Oklahoma and a unit of owner Cheniere Energy Inc. for impacts from construction debris left behind on private land. Both line owners must demonstrate to FERC why they should not be fined. Agency Commissioner Alison Clements said the environmental violations by Energy Transfer and Cheniere do not represent standard industry behavior but should motivate sector firms to help identify reforms that would build confidence in in FERC’s “decisionmaking and compliance oversight.” Related to Rover, a 711-mile, $4.2-billion line (see map) that was fully commissioned in 2018, FERC alleged it “intentionally and routinely” discharged unapproved diesel fuel and other toxics with drilling mud during drilling under the Tuscarawas River in Ohio. A second violation involved the 2017 inadvertent release of two million gallons of diesel-tainted drill mud into a protected wetland. FERC did not propose a fine against, nor identfiy, any project contractor or subcontractor. In a statement, Energy Transfer cited “no evidence to show" that it or its Rover unit "had any knowledge of, or involvement in this action.” The firm says it learned months later that a “rogue employee” of the unidentified drilling subcontractor "admitted under oath to the discharge on his own volition and then tried to hide it." The energy firm says the area has been restored to a “pristine condition” and that it will seek recovery from the contractor for any FERC fine. FERC also ordered the Midship line and equity owner Cheniere Energy to explain to the agency why its also unidentified contractor has not removed construction debris from private land along the 36-in. line’s 234-mile route. The agency said its enforcement office will further investigate and recommend penalties if necessary. A Cheniere statement said the firm “has dedicated tremendous resources to restoration efforts and welcomes continued engagement with FERC and all stakeholders.”

32 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 13-19 | Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago the Marcellus/Utica region saw 30 new permits to drill shale wells. Last week we improved that a bit, to 32. Pennsylvania issued 13 new permits to three drillers for five well pads in four counties. Ohio issued eight new permits to two drillers for three pads in two counties. And West Virginia issued 11 new permits to two drillers for two pads in a single county.

• In Pennsylvania, Range Resource received six permits, EQT received four, and Chief Oil & Gas received three. Pennsylvania New Shale Permits Issued Dec 13-19 (embedded list)
• In Ohio, Ascent Resources received six permits and Encino Energy (EAP) received two permits. Ohio New Shale Permits Issued Dec 13-19 (embedded list)
• In West Virginia, CNX Resources received eight permits and Antero Resources received three permits. All of the permits were in Tyler County. West Virginia New Shale Permits Issued Dec 13-19(embedded list)

Natural gas production growth in Appalachia limited to supply mainly northeast demand, says GlobalData -- Natural gas production from the US’s Marcellus and Utica shale plays is forecast to cross the 42 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) mark by 2025, according to GlobalData — assuming gas prices stay above $3.5 per one million British thermal units (mmbtu). The leading data and analytics company notes that no new pipelines are expected to come online after 2023, despite the fact that North America is the largest gas producer and supplies approximately 40% of the total natural gas production in the US. Svetlana Doh, Senior Upstream Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Environmental opposition in Pennsylvania, home to the majority of Appalachia basin production, created an onerous and exhausting approval process for pipeline operators. Pipeline projects in both the Atlantic Coast and PennEast were canceled on environmental grounds, and it appears that getting approval is going to be challenging for any future major pipeline in the Northeast.” While the Appalachia basin has the potential to ramp up production to 47 bcfd by 2030, pipeline and infrastructure limitations put the play at risk of curtailing production in the future based on the midstream factor alone. Doh continues: “The combined power of both current pipeline infrastructure and the eleven gas pipelines planned to be built in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia by 2023 will be able to support a mere 41 bcfd of natural gas flowing capacity.” Doh adds: “With respect to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, Marcellus and Utica could play an important role in driving demand for natural gas supply in the US, given their resource potential. However, it will require additional pipeline capacity to bring natural gas to the Gulf Coast, where most of the under-construction and approved plants are to be located.” Although there is additional natural gas from other plays such as Permian and Haynesville, with a combined growth of 6.9 bcfd of natural gas by 2025, future LNG capacity can require much more. In only six years, US LNG capacity increased from zero to almost 11 bcfd, and, currently, the pool of LNG approved projects totals 26.3 bcfd. With natural gas demand worldwide expected to continue to increase, US LNG developers can have the economic incentive to accelerate the addition of new capacity. Doh adds: “The US has large accumulations of natural gas that could be developed in the current price environment, and coupled with additional LNG capacity, can further increase the US’s natural gas exporting capacity. Shale operators have generally recovered from the lows caused by demand destruction during the 2021 pandemic-related crisis and have also remained competitive. This means that even with the increase in Henry Hub prices, given natural gas prices in other world regions, US LNG exports are quite profitable. “With new LNG terminals launching next year, the US is on track to become the largest LNG exporter in the world and an important player to partially fill the demand gap in Europe and Asia.”

USA Marcellus and Utica Shales Market Report- Statistical Analysis, Business Opportunity and Forecast - The USA Marcellus and Utica Shales Market research report segments the market based on type, applications, end-users, and different geographies. USA Marcellus and Utica Shales Market helps new entrants/ stakeholders to understand the market trends and plan robust market strategies. Moreover, the report also offers a covid-19 impact on the USA Marcellus and Utica Shales Market, enabling businesses to understand market drivers and restraints. The Appalachia Basin which is made up of the Marcellus formations and the Utica Shale, accounted for more than 40% of the natural gas produced in the United States in 2020. Most of the production comes from the state of Pennsylvania and Ohio and partially from West Virginia. Unlike many of the oil plays in the US Lower 48, the natural gas plays including the Appalachia Basin saw a less drastic change in production and drilling activity during the economic contraction caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. While major oil-producing operators slashed their 2020 capital expenditure up to 50% - 60%, the top three producers in the Appalachia Basin EQT Corporation, Antero Resources, and Southwestern Energy have only cut their capital by 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. This region averaged 32.19 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (bcfd) and 33.44 bcfd in 2019 and 2020, respectively.USA Marcellus and Utica Shales Market Report analyzes the crude oil and natural gas appraisal and production activities in Marcellus and Utica Shales play in the US. The scope of the report includes -
- Comprehensive analysis of natural gas and crude oil historical production and short term outlook of Marcellus and Utica shale plays during 2019-2021
- Detailed information of impact on well development, permits and deals due to COVID-19 pandemic
- In-depth information on net acreage, operational performance and financial standings of major operators in Marcellus and Utica shale plays
- Analysis of top companies’ future plans and cost trends in 2020
- Up-to-date information on associated infrastructure and major mergers and acquisitions in Marcellus and Utica shale plays between 2018 and 2020

Despite moratorium, 2 million gallons of conventional oil and gas waste spread on Pa. roads since 2018 - Conventional oil and gas producers have spread millions of gallons of drilling waste on Pennsylvania roads in the last few years, despite a 2018 moratorium on the practice. For years, companies have spread oil and gas waste on roads to suppress dust and melt ice. But in 2016, the state blocked the practice for waste from Marcellus shale wells. In 2018, it also prohibited the spreading of waste from conventional oil and gas wells, which typically tap shallower rock formations. The decision resulted in a 90 percent drop on the amount of conventional waste, or brine, spread on roads, said Karen Feridun of the non-profit Better Path Coalition, which produced a report on the topic. Still, Feridun says, companies have disposed of over 2 million gallons of conventional drilling waste on Pennsylvania roads since 2018. “What really are the distinctions between conventional and unconventional (waste)?” Feridun said. “If you are going to take that step of banning unconventional, why not both?” Both conventional and unconventional drilling waste contain salts, metals, and naturally-occurring radioactive materials. Most conventional waste is disposed of at treatment facilities or injection disposal wells. But companies are still disposing of some of their waste through road spreading. They are using a loophole in state law called “coproduct determination,” which allows for companies to replace a commercially-available product with industrial waste as long as using that waste does not “present a greater threat of harm to human health and the environment” than the product it’s replacing. As part of this process, companies are required to evaluate “total levels of hazardous or toxic constituents” in their waste. Earlier this year, the DEP asked 17 companies that had reported road spreading for additional information on these activities. Their responses showed the companies had tested their waste for salts and other minerals. But Feridun, who reviewed these submissions to the DEP obtained through Right-to-Know requests, says the companies aren’t testing the waste for radioactivity and other contaminants. “There are just all sorts of substances and chemicals that are in the waste that are extremely dangerous and are going to have long lasting effects,” Feridun said.

 FERC cracks down on pipelines The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission toughened its stance on alleged violations associated with natural gas pipelines yesterday, saying enforcement has been too lax in the past and that stricter policies may be needed. “We are being more aggressive and ensuring that those conditions are actually being enforced,” FERC Chair Richard Glick told reporters after the agency’s open meeting yesterday. “Under previous leadership, the commission did not adequately enforce its conditions.” Yesterday’s meeting showcased the sharp divisions among commissioners about the agency’s oversight of natural gas projects. In contrast to Glick’s get-tough rhetoric, Republican members of the panel warned that putting up obstacles to pipeline development can lead to problems, such as potential gas outages this winter in the Northeast. “We’re going to have to face the reality that the need for gas-fired generation is not going to go away next month, next year, in the short term. It is not,” said Republican Commissioner Mark Christie. “We’re going to have to deal with that and be willing to build the transportation facilities to get the gas to the generators so we can keep the lights on.” Commissioner Allison Clements, a Democrat on the panel, said the agency’s moves “illustrate the profound challenges” facing natural gas projects and signal the need for broader policy changes. She and fellow Democrat Glick reiterated their support for changing how the agency assesses proposed new natural gas pipelines, a process outlined in its certificate policy statement. “To address the challenges ahead, we need to stop debating whether change is necessary and take the forward-looking steps required to meet our statutory obligations,” Clements said. The meeting was the first with Willie Phillips, a fellow Democrat who was sworn in this month as FERC’s fifth commissioner. Phillips could give Glick and Clements the votes they need to revise the pipeline policy statement and add “greater emphasis on environmental impacts” into FERC’s review processes, ClearView Energy Partners said in a note Dec. 3. Phillips, for his part, did not vote on any of the items yesterday, but he said he looked forward to getting up to speed while prioritizing electric reliability and affordability. “This small but very critical agency can have a big effect on public welfare,” Phillips said. The other commissioners approved moving forward with enforcement actions seeking a $40 million fine against Energy Transfer LP on allegations that it leaked toxic diesel fuel while building its Rover pipeline in Ohio, and alleging that Cheniere Energy’s Midship pipeline in Oklahoma is violating its permit for leaving construction debris on the private land it condemned for construction. In the case of the Rover pipeline, the company will need to explain why it should not pay the penalty proposed by agency staff. The commission also revoked the permits of two other projects that were canceled amid staunch opposition, the PennEast pipeline — a project proposed by a consortium of energy companies that would have run through New Jersey and Pennsylvania — and the Pacific Connector project, which was to carry gas to the Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas terminal in Oregon. Developers of Jordan Cove told FERC this month that they were not moving forward with the project because of challenges in obtaining state permits (Energywire, Dec. 2). Energy Transfer, best known as the developer of the Dakota Access pipeline, acknowledged yesterday that diesel was leaked during Rover construction, but said it was introduced to the project by the "rogue employee" of a contractor who then tried to conceal his actions.

Eastern Generation shutting oil-fired power in New York City, adding battery storage | S&P Global Platts --Independent power producer Eastern Generation said it plans to retire oil-burning peaker plants and build battery storage projects providing over 350 MW of storage capacity at three existing generating stations in New York City. "Eastern Generation is well positioned to assist in the transition to a carbon free future, while continuing to provide a safe and reliable electric system," Mark Sudbey, Eastern Generation's CEO, said in a Dec. 16 statement. "We are prepared to help meet zero carbon goals," he said, adding "our actions today are part of this larger effort as we look at our existing sites and beyond to help reimagine a safe, reliable power supply." The company owns electric generating stations that account for nearly 18% of New York City's power generation capacity, according to the statement. The first storage project, which filed for authorization at the New York Public Service Commission, is planned to be located at the Astoria Generating Station and will provide 135 MW of energy storage. Eastern Generation also said that it is withdrawing an application previously submitted to the New York State Siting Board to repower the Gowanus Generating Station on the Brooklyn waterfront with new gas turbines so that it may effectively proceed with energy storage development at the site. Additionally, the company will file with the NYPSC and the New York Independent System Operator to retire two oil-only power barges at Gowanus as soon as November 2022, six months ahead of the scheduled May 2023 closure mandated by state regulations, Eastern Generation said.

Three House Democrats ask watchdog to probe 'peaker' power plant pollution --Three House Democrats from New York on Tuesday called on a federal watchdog to investigate pollution generated by “peaker” power plants, or those that only generate electricity during periods of high demand.House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) joined Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) in calling on the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to investigate the effects of such plants on local communities.The lawmakers noted that the plants are both less energy-efficient than standard power plants and are frequently located in lower-income or predominantly minority neighborhoods.“Addressing the use of peaker plants, which can emit twice the carbon and up to 20 times the nitrous oxides of a typical plant while operating significantly less efficiently, represents a high-impact opportunity to reduce climate risks and tackle a life-threatening environmental justice issue,” they wrote. “We request GAO’s assistance in reporting on key data to assess damage, uncover health burdens, calculate economic costs, and identify alternative solutions to the use of peaker power plants.”There are 89 peaker plants in New York City alone, including 28 in or near Maloney’s district and 16 in Ocasio-Cortez’s district. An area in western Queens with a number of such plants has become known as “Asthma Alley” due to its disproportionate rates of the respiratory condition.

Burning Oil To Generate Electricity In The US -- As Bad As Coal But A Whole Lot More Expensive -- December 20, 2021 -- Link here. For the past week or so, ISO NE has been very, very affordable; wind energy bringing overall price down. But it surprised me today. I wasn't surprised so much by the spike in price (6th decile) as I was about the "source" of that electricity: oil. Oil? Are you kidding me? I can't even imagine burning any oil at in the United States to generate electricity, but "NE" is literally right next to the biggest source of natural gas in the known universe. The Middle East burns oil to generate electricity, but in the United States?

Large heating oil spill near Millers River in Athol could take days to clean up - (WWLP) – A tanker rollover in Athol on Wednesday has caused gallons of heating oil to spill, some into the Millers River. On Wednesday, the Orange Fire Department announced they are working to contain the heating oil in the Millers River with assistance from Environmental Services Inc. from South Windsor, Connecticut. Residents may see a slick look to the water for several days as they work to clean the water. Cleanup continued into Thursday and more people are now assisting. State, federal and local groups are working to remove the oil from the river. The Orange Fire Chief requested assistance from Massachusetts State Police Airwing to flyover the river to find areas with larges amount of oil. Residents should expect to see equipment and vehicles along the Millers River for the next several days. It is estimated more than 6,000 gallons of heating oil was spilled at the accident but it is unknown how much of that spill went into the Millers River. The Massachusetts DEP will be setup all along the river in the coming days to assist in the cleanup. The Orange Fire Department says there is no threat to the general public at this time.

Gas Company Continues to Push for Potomac Pipeline Project, Mixed Signals from State Agencies - A dormant court case that could lead to the construction of a natural gas pipeline beneath the Potomac River and Western Maryland Rail Trail has come back to life, and the utility company behind it is quietly renewing its permits as it continues to fight the matter in court. At issue is a 3.5 mile pipeline in Maryland, sought by TC Energy which is based in Canada, that would bring natural gas from Pennsylvania to West Virginia’s panhandle. Environmentalists say that this could endanger drinking water for communities in Washington County and others all the way to Washington, D.C., while business leaders have argued that natural gas is critical for the economic development of Western Virginia’s panhandle. In 2019, the Board of Public Works voted unanimously not to grant an easement for TC Energy’s “Eastern Panhandle Expansion Project,” and the company filed an appeal in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. The case had been sitting there until the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey this summer that pipeline projects with federal approval can seize state-owned land to build natural gas pipelines. Since then, Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC. — which is a part of TC Energy — asked the Fourth Circuit to rule in its favor based on the New Jersey decision. Columbia Gas had received federal approval through the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission back in 2018 and contended that they can use the federal government’s power of eminent domain to seize Maryland land to build a pipeline through the Natural Gas Act. TC Energy said in a statement that they plan to complete the pipeline within a year of getting approval to start constructing. “We only consider condemnation as a ‘last resort’ when constructing a project of this nature, but it was unfortunately necessary in this case despite reaching agreement with all private landowners along the route. While the process to uphold federal authority under the Natural Gas Act continues at the 4th Circuit, we continue to work with permitting agencies to ensure that all necessary permits are in place. We plan to complete construction within a year of initiation,” TC Energy said in a statement.

Virginia Regulators Bring MVP One Step Closer to Construction Restart with Water Quality Permit -The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) received a new water quality permit from Virginia regulators last week, a development that could prove critical in the embattled Appalachian natural gas conduit’s quest to overcome regulatory setbacks and finish construction. Virginia’s State Water Control Board, on the recommendation of staff from the state Department of Environmental Quality, on Tuesday voted 3-2 to issue a Virginia Water Protection permit to MVP. The permit is issued through authority established under Section 401 of the federal Clean Water Act (CWA). The Virginia-issued permit marks a major stepping stone toward fulfilling a revamped permitting and construction plan laid out by the developers in early 2021 as an alternative to previous waterbody crossing authorization that was stalled by legal challenges. Part of the new permitting plan involves obtaining state-issued CWA Section 401 approvals from Virginia and from West Virginia, the two states along the 2 million Dth/d pipeline’s mountainous journey from the Marcellus Shale region to an interconnection with the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line in Pittsylvania County, VA. Missing waterbody crossing authorizations have “been a significant contributor to the project’s delays,” analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC wrote in a note to clients shortly after the Virginia board’s decision. “We expect West Virginia to issue its pending authorization by year end as well.” The state-issued permits should then allow the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to move forward with pending CWA Section 404 authorization early next year, according to the analysts. In August, MVP drew closer to realizing its revised water-crossing plan when it received an environmental assessment from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). FERC originally issued a certificate to the pipeline in a split decision in 2017, but myriad regulatory snags and legal setbacks have driven delays and cost overruns in the intervening years. MVP has said that construction of the 42-inch diameter, 303-mile pipeline is close to 94% complete, with 53% of the pipeline’s right-of-way now fully restored.

The Infrastructure Bill’s Hydrogen Funding Is a Big Win for the Oil and Gas Industry - The infrastructure bill signed into law by President Biden in November includes $9.5 billion dollars to support the creation of a clean hydrogen industry — but much of the money is going to support the U.S. fracked gas industry under the guise of “clean” blue hydrogen. While being presented as a clean hydrogen plan for decarbonizing the energy system, the main focus of the hydrogen section of the bill is to continue and expand the use of natural gas (that is, methane) in the U.S. economy via what’s known as blue hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is the name for a fuel product that currently cannot be produced on a commercial scale. Hydrogen gets labeled different colors based on how it’s produced. There’s gray, made from fossil fuels, and green, made using renewable energy. And then there’s blue. The theoretical idea is to make hydrogen from methane while using carbon capture technology to eliminate more than 90 percent of CO2 emissions released during the production process, thus making the hydrogen “low carbon.” Most of the world’s current hydrogen is “gray,” produced from methane without carbon capture, which is an inexpensive but dirty process. Hydrogen production currently contributes to 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, in addition to all of the globe-warming methane released during natural gas production. The gas industry is promising that carbon capture can eliminate most of the CO2 emissions associated with hydrogen production, but there is increasing evidence that carbon capture technology can’t deliver as promised and even if it could, it is very expensive. Bloomberg recently reported that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) played a powerful role in shaping the components of the infrastructure bill that support the use of fracked shale gas as a feedstock for hydrogen production. However, even Manchin has recently admitted that carbon capture — which is essential to blue hydrogen’s supposed climate credentials — isn’t a realistic solution. “I’d love to have carbon capture, but we don’t have the technology because we really haven’t gotten to that point,” Manchin explained to E&E. “And it’s so darn expensive that it makes it almost impossible.” More recently the CEO of Italian energy company Enel acknowledged the same truth about carbon capture, stating: “The fact is, it doesn’t work.” This reality about carbon capture’s failure, however, did not prevent the inclusion of $3.5 billion in subsidies to support carbon capture development for the fossil fuel industry in the infrastructure bill, in addition to the money earmarked for developing blue hydrogen. The Build Back Better bill, Biden’s signature climate and social policy legislation, also is full of more handouts to the fossil fuel industry to support carbon capture.

Natural gas prices fall after warm start to winter - This past fall, surging energy prices were one of the most visible and alarming side effects of the world’s monumental effort to reopen economies all at once. But just a few months later, a warm start to the winter — and worries that the Omicron variant will cause a slowdown — have cut the price of one of America’s main fuel sources nearly in half from its peak. Natural gas is a major source of heating and electricity for American homes. Heading into the winter, these lower prices shouldn't cause the pocketbook shock that analysts had recently feared, as growing inventories change the pricing landscape. Compare that to Europe, which doesn't produce its own gas and still faces steep shortages. Rising prices in the U.S. often stem from the size of natural gas inventories held in storage. In September, when prices were climbing toward their peak, storage levels had shrunk to 7.4% below the five-year average — thanks to a combination of the rapid demand increase from the reopening, the cooling needs from a hot summer, and then the disruption from Hurricane Ida, Sindre Knutsson, natural gas analyst at Rystad Energy, tells Axios. But storage levels have recovered — in large part because of the unseasonably warm start to winter — and over the past few weeks are hovering right around the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration. The EIA’s next weekly report will probably show a surplus to the average for the first time since February, analysts at BofA Global Research write. Th Weather can turn on a dime. A colder U.S. winter would likely deplete some of the inventory. But don’t expect prices to head back to the $5 or $6 area, Knutsson says. More likely, are bouts of short-term volatility. "The market is much more healthy than it was" a few months ago, and can withstand a few cold snaps, he says. Oil prices have eased as well. U.S. crude had its worst day of the month yesterday, down 3.7% — and is off 19% from its November peak.

Natural Gas Futures Jump Higher as U.S. Exports Estimated at Record Level -- Natural gas prices rebounded with a flurry on Monday, driven higher by surging demand for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and domestic forecasts for colder weather in the month ahead. The January Nymex gas futures contract settled at $3.834, up 14.4 cents day/day. The prompt month was up more than 20 cents in intraday trading. The February contract advanced 11.9 cents to $3.758. The gains marked a reversal from cumulative losses over the prior three weeks, including back-to-back declines last Thursday and Friday. Spot gas action was mixed, with prices up in most regions but down substantially in the volatile Northeast. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. was down 75.5 cents to $4.615. LNG feed gas volumes climbed above 13 Bcf over the weekend, reaching a new high, according to preliminary estimates early Monday. Estimates are often revised, but analysts said demand for American exports is clearly mounting and expected to set official records this winter. “Daily LNG feed gas nominations at Sabine Pass spiked above 5.0 Bcf/d on Sunday, lifting national LNG demand to 13.1 Bcf/d and shattering prior records — further contributing to upward movement in the Nymex front-month contract,” European calls for U.S. gas, already elevated ahead of winter due to anemic supplies on the continent, have further intensified in December as freezing weather settles in and heating demand surges. At the same time, anticipated increases in supply from Russia to Europe this winter via the recently completed Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline have yet to flow. NS2 gas deliveries are in limbo amid regulatory delays, leaving European markets increasingly in need of U.S. LNG. Analysts at Rystad Energy said it appeared NS2 may not get certified in time for this winter season. Meanwhile, aside from parts of the western United States, domestic weather-driven demand continues to prove modest and is expected to remain so late into December. However, as Rubin noted, forecasts on Monday showed “coalescing indications for a cold first week of January,” providing support for futures.

U.S. natgas near three-week high on colder weather forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% to a near three-week high on Wednesday, helped by forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and hopes that soaring prices in Europe will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Front-month gas futures rose 10.7 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $3.976 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Dec. 3. "Some cold and more seasonal weather on the horizon, and record LNG export pulling gas away from domestic consumption are contributing to the upside," "Given these market fundamentals, expect prices will remain at the current levels or go higher before heading south when the winter is over and higher production news hitting the market. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 409 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, up from the 405 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal is 429 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 109.7 billion cubic feet per day last week to 125.1 bcfd this week before easing to 116.8 bcfd next week. Gas prices in Europe jumped to a record high on Tuesday after Russian gas shipments to Germany through a major transit pipeline reversed direction and colder weather increased demand. Global gas prices have repeatedly touched all-time highs over the last few months as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls caused power blackouts in China. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.9 bcfd so far in December, now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares to 11.4 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November.

US gas inventories drop well below normal as mild winter weather persists | S&P Global Platts -- (NB: headline is wrong) US natural gas inventories fell about one-third of the five-year average rate, and the remaining Henry Hub winter strip tumbled more than 20 cents. Storage fields withdrew 55 Bcf for the week ended Dec. 17, according to data the US Energy Information Administration released Dec. 23. The survey has missed the mark by an average of 2 Bcf over the past six storage weeks. The withdrawal was slightly below the 57 Bcf draw that an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts expected. The draw was well below the five-year average of 153 and the 147 Bcf pull from the corresponding week of last year. Working gas inventories decreased to 3.362 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 234 Bcf, or 6.5%, below the year-ago level of 3.596 Tcf and 34 Bcf, or 1%, above the five-year average of 3.328 Tcf. The remaining NYMEX Henry Hub winter fell about 23 cents to average $3.63/MMBtu in Dec. 23 trading following the data release. Production has seen strong growth in the fourth quarter, which caused the NYMEX 2022 Henry Hub strip to sell off late in the year to maintain an average below $4/MMBtu. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 128 Bcf draw for the week in progress, which is more than the five-year average pull of 121 Bcf. An early look at the week ending Dec. 31 points to a drawdown of 83 Bcf, which is 15 Bcf below the five-year average, increasing the nascent storage surplus. Demand looks to grow in multiple sectors in 2022, which should lead to larger year-on-year pulls if normal winter weather arrives with the New Year. Total US demand is forecast to add another 1.4 Bcf/d in 2022 compared with 2021 to an average of 97.3 Bcf/d, according to Platts Analytics. LNG export demand will be the main driver of the increase as feedgas is forecast to average 12.4Bcf/d in 2022, 1.6 Bcf/d higher than 2021. Industrial demand is also forecast to rise to an average of 23.3 Bcf/d in 2022, up from 22.6 Bcf/d in 2021. Offsetting some of these increases will be a 1.2 Bcf/d drop in power demand to average 29 Bcf/d in 2022. The higher-priced environment expected in 2022 is likely to keep gas-to-coal switching high, limiting the upside to gas demand for power generation much of the year.

U.S. natural gas futures plunge on bearish winter weather outlook - U.S. natural gas futures plunged to the lowest since July as the weather forecast for the new year shifted milder and European gas prices slid from record-high levels. Futures fell 6.2 per cent on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday, the most since early December. Unseasonably high temperatures are expected on the East Coast and southern U.S. through next week, dampening demand for the heating and power-plant fuel. Trading has meanwhile thinned heading into the U.S. holiday weekend, raising the likelihood of sudden swings. Embedded Image “We expect the weather data will continue to bounce between colder and warmer trends for the first week of January in the coming days, making holding over the long Christmas Holiday break extremely risky,” analysts with NatGasWeather.com wrote in a note to clients. Thursday’s sell-off comes after gas prices in Europe plunged 20 per cent on expectations that a flotilla of liquefied natural gas cargoes en route from the U.S. will help to ease an energy crisis that has driven futures to record highs and shut factories. U.S. LNG export facilities have been operating at or above capacity in recent weeks and 30 tankers carrying nearly 5 million cubic meters of the fuel combined are crossing the Atlantic. Anemic declines to U.S. gas inventories at the start of winter have underscored the impact of higher-than-normal temperatures. Utility companies and other customers drew just 55 billion cubic feet of natural gas from winter storage last week, in-line with analyst expectations but less than half the 5-year average demand for that time of year, a report released Thursday showed. Gas for January delivery settled down 24.5 cents to US$3.731 per million British thermal units. Futures earlier fell to US$3.599, the lowest since July 16.

Venture Global Signs Another Pair of LNG Supply Deals With China - Venture Global LNG Inc. signed two more gas export contracts with China as cargo prices at record levels add pressure on overseas buyers to enter into long-term deals and lock in lower costs. The U.S. liquefied natural gas developer signed a pair of 20-year supply deals with China’s CNOOC Gas & Power Group Co for a total of 3.5 million metric tons a year, the companies said in a joint announcement Monday.

A $550 million Bia plant may be coming to the Port of Caddo-Bossier - Bia Energy Operating Company announced that it is evaluating a $550 million blue methanol production plant that would be located at the Port of Caddo-Bossier in Shreveport. “Louisiana welcomes and supports Bia Energy’s plans for investment, job creation and increased economic activity in Northwest Louisiana,” Gov. John Bel Edwards said. The possibility of this plant could result in the creation of 75 direct new jobs, with an average annual salary of $80,000, plus benefits. “The long-term economic impact of quality jobs created by Bia Energy will greatly benefit North Louisiana,” North Louisiana Economic Partnership President and CEO Justyn Dixon said. “With our region’s strong education partners and training programs, these well-paying, permanent jobs will contribute to retaining that skilled workforce in Caddo Parish. Bia Energy’s dedication to energy efficiency will bring our region to the forefront of modern energy. We commend the effort between the Port of Caddo-Bossier, BRF, LED and NLEP, and thus proving collaboration is the way to bring long-term investment to North Louisiana.”Louisiana Economic Development estimates the project would result in 390 indirect jobs, for a total of 465 new jobs in Louisiana’s Northwest region.The plant would feature carbon capture capabilities, reducing carbon dioxide, or CO2, emissions by more than 90 percent compared to other methanol plants. If it moves forward, BEOC plans to locate its facility on a 74-acre site located at the Port of Caddo-Bossier. The company is expected to make a final decision in the 1st quarter of 2022, with construction expected to last approximately two years, and commercial operations to begin soon after.

Sixteen Hispanic House Democrats ask EPA for tougher methane rule -Sixteen members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on Wednesday asked the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to tighten its rules on methane emissions, citing the particular impact of emissions on Hispanic and Latino communities.The members, led by Congressional Hispanic Caucus Climate Change Task Force Chair Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.), called the EPA’s latest methane rule “historic.” However, they called for two key expansions of its provisions: regular inspections for smaller oil and gas wells at risk of leaking, and further action to address so-called flaring, or burning gas it would not be profitable or safe to sell.The letter notes that about 1.81 million Latino Americans live within a half-mile of an oil and gas well, citing data from the Environmental Defense Fund.“[U]nder the current proposal, operators that calculate lower potential emissions (less than 3 tons per year of methane) could still escape regular leak monitoring. This is problematic because these smaller, leak prone wells can release more methane or natural gas into the air than they produce,” the letter states. “Also, large leaks can occur at smaller well sites. EPA must address this issue by enacting comprehensive requirements for frequent leak inspections, without exceptions for smaller wells.” Flaring, too, is a particular concern for low-income communities and people of color, the letter says, citing research from the University of Southern California that found Black, Indigenous and Latino communities are at disproportionate risks to their health from flaring. The practice has been linked to asthma, heart issues and premature births in pregnant women.

Biden’s crude sale moves to second round with bids due Jan. 4 ---The Biden administration’s release of crude from U.S. emergency reserves in an effort to cool oil’s rally is going into a second round, with bids due by the first working day of the year. The Department of Energy is selling 18 million barrels of sour crude from storage caverns in Texas and Louisiana in a tender that closes Jan. 4, with deliveries from Feb. 1 through March 31, according to a statement on its website. Crude futures have dropped about 15% since late October, when President Joe Biden and his team began indicating they were considering a variety of tools to bring down fuel prices. Oil has fallen more sharply since news of the omicron variant of the coronavirus broke in late November. In a first effort, a loan program offered 32 million barrels of high-sulfur crudes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Of that total, just 4.8 million barrels was awarded to Exxon Mobil Corp. In the latest tender, the Energy Department is offering to sell supplies from caverns in Big Hill and Bryan Mound in Texas, as wells as West Hackberry and Bayou Choctaw in Louisiana. The agency is allowing early deliveries where possible.

Taylor Energy OK's $475 million settlement for longest oil leak in U.S. history - Taylor Energy Co. has agreed to pay $475 million to settle litigation with the federal government over the 17-year leak of crude oil – the longest in U.S. history – from its hurricane-destroyed production platform 20 miles off the mouth of the Mississippi River. According to a proposed consent decree filed Wednesday in U.S. District Court in New Orleans, the company will transfer to the Interior Department a $432.5 million trust fund that it set up to pay for capping and plugging the 28 wells, decommissioning what's left of the platform and cleaning up any soils contaminated by the leak. The company has also agreed to pay more than $43 million in civil penalties, federal costs for removing the platform and wells and expenses for restoring or replacing natural resources such as wildlife, fisheries or wetlands contaminated by oil. Louisiana is a co-trustee with the federal government in overseeing the money to restore natural resources. The proposed settlement signals the end of Taylor Energy, a company founded in 1979 by Patrick Taylor, the independent oil executive known for his efforts to create the now state-funded Taylor Opportunity Program for Students, or TOPS. The program provides college scholarships to thousands of Louisiana students. The drawn-out compliance process illustrates not only the difficulty of stopping underwater oil leaks but also the determination of an independent oil company with deep pockets and the shifting priorities of a federal government that changed parties three times in 17 years. Taylor died in 2004, only a few weeks after Hurricane Ivan destroyed the platform in the Gulf of Mexico. In the ensuing years, his company sold its other oil and gas assets, retaining only the failed wells and the cleanup response trust fund. The company is controlled by Taylor’s widow, renowned New Orleans philanthropist Phyllis Taylor. Phyllis Taylor company representatives did not respond Wednesday to a request for comment on the settlement. The settlement, which is subject to public comment for 40 days, requires Taylor Energy to drop its lawsuits against the federal government, including a challenge to the Coast Guard’s decision to install a spill containment system over the well site. The containment system collects oil that continues to leak from some unplugged wells. It also requires the company to drop its challenge to the Coast Guard’s denial of Taylor’s request for $353 million, which would have been reimbursement for the company’s spending on fighting the leak and plugging the wells. Further, the settlement resolves all federal claims on the company. And when Taylor Energy sells its remaining assets after the settlement, the proceeds will go to the federal government, according to the Justice Department. The company will be allowed to hold onto enough money to pay for operations until the liquidation is complete.

Louisiana energy firm to pay millions following oil spill that began 17 years ago -America’s longest running oil spill dispute is close to a resolution after a Louisiana-based energy firm has agreed to a proposed multi-million dollar settlement. Taylor Energy agreed to pay more than $43m in clean-up costs, civil penalties and natural resource damage, and transfer a $432m clean-up trust fund to the Department of Interior, according to a proposed settlement announced by the Department of Justice. The proposed agreement stems from more than a dozen Taylor Energy-owned wells in the Mississippi Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico that began leaking after a production platform was damaged by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The pipeline has lost hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil, and continues to leak. “Offshore operators cannot allow oil to spill into our nation’s waters,” said Todd Kim, assistant attorney general for the DoJ’senvironment and natural resources division, adding: “If an oil spill occurs, the responsible party must cooperate with the government to timely address the problem and pay for the cleanup.” As part of the settlement, Taylor Energy will withdraw three existing lawsuits it filed against the government and will not be required to admit “any liability to the United States or the State arising out of the MC-20 Incident.” The agreement will now put before a court’s review and approval. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s national ocean service, said in a statement that the “settlement represents an important down payment” to the costs of the environmental clean-up. “Millions of Americans along the Gulf Coast depend on healthy coastal ecosystems. Noaa and our co-trustees look forward to working in partnership with the National Pollution Funds Center to ensure the region and the ecosystem can recover from this ongoing tragedy,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, national ocean service director The spill began 17 years ago when a cluster of pipes connecting sixteen wells off the Louisiana coast were damaged by a subsea mudslide caused by the toppling of a Taylor production platform by hurricane winds. The company plugged nine wells but has said it cannot plug the rest. The Coast Guard said a system had captured and removed more than 800,000 gallons of oil since April 2019. Taylor Energy sold its oil and gas assets in 2008, according to its website. The trust fund will be created to plug the wells, as well as to permanently decommission the platform and clean contaminated soil.

Baytown, Texas: 4 injured after explosion and fire reported at an ExxonMobil refinery officials say – CNN - A "major industrial accident" injured at least four people early Thursday at one of the United States' largest oil refineries, sheriff's officials in the Houston area said. Initial reports indicated an explosion happened at the ExxonMobil oil refinery in Baytown, Texas, Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez said in a tweet, and residents in the area reported a loud explosion. A fire happened at the refinery around 2 a.m. ET, according to ExxonMobil, which did not immediately confirm an explosion or say what led to the fire. Four people were injured, the sheriff's office said, three of whom were taken for treatment by helicopter and one by ambulance. The fire happened in a unit that produces gasoline, and the plant's emergency workers still were working before sunrise to extinguish the fire, ExxonMobil refinery manager Rohan Davis told reporters early Thursday. The conditions of the four injured people were stable, said Davis, who said he could not comment on the extent of their injuries. The cause of the fire wasn't immediately known and will be investigated, Davis said. The company is coordinating with authorities and is monitoring air quality with regulators, Davis said. "All of those results so far have shown no impact to the community from an air quality perspective," Davis said.The Baytown refinery, which began operations in 1920, has an average daily capacity to refine 561,000 barrels of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration.That makes it the fourth-largest US refinery, only 8% smaller than the largest, the Motiva Enterprises facility in Port Arthur, Texas, owned by Saudi Aramco. Baytown is one of only five US refineries with a capacity of more than 500,000 barrels a day. The refinery incident Thursday could hamper output for months, weighing on gasoline supply at a time when US refining capacity has already been reduced, saidTom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service.

Fire that injured four people at ExxonMobil's Baytown refinery extinguished— A fire that broke out overnight at ExxonMobil's Baytown refinery has now been extinguished, according to the latest update from the company.ExxonMobil officials say four people were injured in the fire, which started at around 1 a.m. Sheriff Ed Gonzalez said three of the injured workers were taken to the hospital by Life Flight. One other was taken by ground ambulance. ExxonMobil says all other employees are accounted for and those who were hospitalized are reportedly stable. We're told it happened in the part of the refinery that produces gasoline. While employees were evacuated from that section, the rest of the plant is still in operation.The cause of the fire remains under investigation.We've gotten multiple viewer reports of the fire. One person sent us video, which is below. ExxonMobil released the following statement to us: "Our first priority is people in the community and in our facilities. Air monitoring continues along the fence line. Available information shows no adverse air quality monitoring impact to the community or personnel on site at this time.We are saddened to inform that four people were injured and are receiving medical treatment. All four individuals are in stable condition. All other personnel have been accounted for.We are in the process of setting have set up an information line for community members affected by this incident. Please call 1-800-241-9010.The causes of the incident have not yet been determined. We are coordinating with authorities as appropriate, and all findings will be incorporated in our continuing effort to enhance our safety performance. We deeply regret any disruption or inconvenience that this incident caused to the community."

Intertribal agency raises concerns with state's draft review of a proposed oil pipeline reroute | Wisconsin Public Radio An intertribal agency says the state’s draft environmental review of a Canadian firm’s $450 million plan to reroute an oil and gas pipeline across northern Wisconsin is incomplete and flawed.The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources released its draft environmental impact statement on Thursday for a roughly 40-mile reroute of Enbridge’s Line 5 in Ashland and Iron counties. The pipeline carries up to 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas liquids per day from Superior to Sarnia, Ontario.Enbridge wants to move the pipeline after the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa sued the company in 2019 to shut down and remove Line 5 from the tribe’s reservation.The company’s proposed route is expected to cross nearly 200 waterbodies and temporarily affect 135 acres of wetlands. Enbridge maintains the nearly 70-year-old pipeline serves as a vital link to fuel across the region.The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, which represents 11 Ojibwe tribes, told the DNR in a Dec. 10 letter that the state’s review has significant gaps in information.The commission’s environmental section leader John Coleman and environmental specialist Esteban Chiriboga said the draft released Thursday lacks adequate data to support the impacts of any oil spill to downstream waters, including Lake Superior. They said it also fails to assess compliance with the Bad River tribe’s water quality standards or combined impacts of other projects."There really needs to be a thorough description of the risks being posed by putting this pipeline around the reservation ... and Enbridge does not have a great history with spills," said Coleman.Enbridge was responsible for one of the nation's largest inland oil spills in July 2010, which cost more than $1.2 billion to clean up. More recently, Minnesota regulators fined the company $3 million for failing to follow the state’s environmental laws after Enbridge pierced a groundwater aquifer during construction of Line 3, releasing at least 24 million gallons of water."This was a topic that was brought up time and time again, recognizing that Red Cliff specifically has a huge reliance on commercial fishing," said Noah Saperstein, environmental justice specialist for the Red Cliff tribe. "Not to mention, the cultural connection that the community has with the lake."

U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Activity Rises Ahead of Holidays, Latest Baker Count Shows - Onshore gains in both oil and natural gas-directed drilling saw the U.S. rig count surge seven units higher to finish at 586 during the week ended Thursday (Dec. 23), according to the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Five oil-directed rigs and two natural gas-directed rigs were added domestically for the period, with the combined U.S. tally outpacing its year-earlier total by 238 units. The Gulf of Mexico held flat at 15 rigs for the period, down from 17 a year ago. Seven horizontal units were added, along with one vertical rig. Partially offsetting was a decline of one directional unit, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. The Canadian rig count pulled back sharply for the period, down 34 rigs week/week to 133. Declines included 20 oil, 13 natural gas and one miscellaneous rig. The Canadian count remained well ahead of the 82 rigs running in the year-ago period. Broken down by major region, the Permian Basin led the way with six rigs added for the period, raising its total to 294, up from 173 at the same time last year. The Cana Woodford added two rigs for the week, while the Haynesville Shale added one. In terms of state-by-state counts, Texas and New Mexico each posted net gains of four rigs week/week. Louisiana, meanwhile, saw a net decline of one rig for the period, the BKR data show. According to the latest round of Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data, Americans pulled back on distillate fuel, gasoline and jet fuel consumption in the week-earlier period as spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus accelerated. EIA said Wednesday that total petroleum demand for the week ended Dec. 17 dropped 12% week/week to 20.5 million b/d. Demand for gasoline fell 5% week/week, while jet fuel consumption declined 9% and distillate fuel demand dropped 22%. “Much uncertainty remains regarding the impact of the Omicron variant on mobility, demand and oil prices,” Raymond James Inc. chief economist Scott Brown said the new variant would inevitably create enough trepidation to cause travel and economic interruptions, affecting energy demand. However, because a majority of Americans are vaccinated, he does not expect government imposed lockdowns that would cause lasting impacts. Omicron “is likely to be a near-term constraint on growth, but a temporary one, as we saw with the Delta variant,” Brown said.

Shale companies are swimming in cash -- Two things to start:

1. Au revoir, long-term European gas contracts. The European Commission has proposed banning deals between EU members and energy suppliers outside the bloc, such as Russia, that would last beyond 2049. That’s a long time away, but is the last year before the EU economy is supposed to have hit a net zero emissions target.
2. Remember peak oil consumption? US weekly oil demand soared last week, hitting a new record of almost 23.2m barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration, leaping by 17 per cent compared with a week earlier. The four-week average is not — yet — at a record high.

That US demand number is startling. But Omicron seems certain now to decide whether the US — or indeed global — energy consumption continues to rise so quickly. Opec remains sanguine about the variant, saying in its latest market report that the impact on demand “is expected to be mild and shortlived”. The International Energy Agency was less confident, saying in its December oil-market report that Omicron “poses a significant risk to the economic outlook”.Meanwhile, although Joe Biden’s Build Back Better legislation — with its sweeping climate and energy provisions — is stalled in Congress, some of its supporters have launched a new TV spot to promote it. The PR blitz marks an interesting change of tack by positioning BBB — and its funding for “affordable clean energy” — as the answer to American anxieties about high energy costs and inflation. That stands in contrast to the White House’s approach to tackling soaring oil and gas prices in recent months by trying to increase fossil fuel supply. Our first note is on the torrent of cash now flowing into shale companies’ bank accounts. An industry once notorious for destroying capital is now swimming in it. Living within their means has never been a strong point for US shale producers. But last year’s crash, and colossal Wall Street pressure, have proven to be the nudge companies needed to get their houses in order. After years of burning through investor cash in pursuit of ever-greater growth, America’s shale patch is suddenly making money. Lots of money. As 2021 rounds to a close, public shale companies shelled out a combined $6bn in capital expenditure in the last quarter, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. That is less than a quarter of their levels at the height of the boom. Cash from operations, meanwhile, sits at around $13bn, approaching record levels. All of which means that free cash flow, a key shale investor metric determined by the difference between cash from operations and capex, is coursing through a sector that once exemplified value-destruction and some of the worst excesses in corporate America. The transformation — helped by a doubling in oil prices in the past 12 months — is stark, as the chart below shows. It has been a long time coming. Investors have left oil and gas in droves in recent years, causing the sector to shrink from one of the biggest hitters on the S&P 500 to representing less than 3 per cent of the index — half of Apple alone. The old guard of growth investors have run for the hills, to be replaced with a new breed of value investors, keen on returns rather than untrammelled expansion of drilling. “Our investors have evolved,” a senior shale executive told me when I visited Midland last week. “They pushed for growth at all costs and now they get the new model and they like it . . . it’s important to them.” That new model involves not injecting cash back into drilling new wells but rather funnelling cash back to investors in the form of healthy dividends. Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, the biggest shale player, described it to me in Houston last week as a new “contract” between the industry investors. In Pioneer’s case that means growing by no more than 5 per cent annually and distributing a hefty chunk of free cash flow back to investors. And this new model is here to stay, he told me: “There’s no way that the industry is going to change overnight and start growing again.”

USGS Releases Oil and Gas Assessment for the Bakken and Three Forks Formations of Montana and North Dakota - The USGS has completed an oil and gas estimate for the Bakken and Three Forks Formations in the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. The estimate includes 4.3 billion barrels of unconventional oil and 4.9 trillion cubic feet of unconventional natural gas in the two formations. This assessment updates the 2013 USGS assessment of the Williston Basin. "This assessment is the latest in a long line of work we've conducted in the Williston Basin," said Sarah Ryker, USGS Associate Director for Energy and Minerals. "The Williston Basin has, in many ways, mirrored our broader energy work. What began with assessments of potential energy resources has grown to encompass both energy and water production, infrastructure and impacts, demonstrating the importance of both to the regional and national economies." A substantial amount of drilling (over 11,000 wells) has occurred in the basin since 2013, resulting in both more production and more knowledge of the basin’s resources. The USGS assessment focuses on areas where less drilling has occurred and less is known about potential resources. “The USGS assessment is of undiscovered resources; in other words, it’s a science-based estimate of what may be discovered in the basin in the future,” said Ryker. “It’s different from – and complementary to – industry production numbers, which focus on the known or discovered resource. Our research focuses on areas of uncertainty.” This assessment also contributes to an ongoing USGS effort to better understand interactions and dependencies between energy resources and water resources. In 2016, the USGS conducted an assessment of the water and proppant requirements and water production associated with potential future production of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Williston Basin's Three Forks and Bakken Formations. In addition, the USGS has published geochemical data from water samples taken during hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of unconventional oil wells in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations. This assessment was conducted based on a peer-reviewed, publicly available methodology that is used for all USGS oil and gas assessments. This allows an apples-to-apples comparison for USGS assessments across the country and over time. This assessment is for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. It includes estimates of continuous resources.

 Recoverable oil in western North Dakota revised downward -(AP) — A federal report shows that untapped recoverable oil in western North Dakota has dropped significantly in the last eight years due to the number of new wells. The U.S Geological Survey estimates that the Bakken and Three Forks rock formations contain another 4.3 billion barrels of crude, a 40% drop from the agency’s last estimate in 2013. About 11,000 wells have been drilled into the formations in the last eight years, collectively producing billions of barrels of oil predicted in the earlier estimate. “We weren’t all that surprised that the number went down,” state Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said Friday. “I think we were surprised how much the number went down.” The wells drilled into the rock formations have produced 4 billion barrels of oil to date. Helms said he anticipates the future output of those wells will consist of another 4 billion barrels, The Bismarck Tribune reported. Helms said about 80% of what’s considered the best mineral acreage in the Bakken oil patch has already been drilled and companies are looking to innovate in parts of the region farther from the center. The USGS also revised down its expectations for natural gas production. The 2013 estimate anticipated 6.7 trillion cubic feet per day of additional recoverable gas. The latest estimate puts the figure at 4.9 trillion cubic feet per day.

Bakken still has 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered oil out there, in addition to the 8 billion already proven or produced --In 2013, the Bakken and Three forks formations in the Williston Basin had 7.4 billion barrels of undiscovered but technically recoverable oil and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, according to a United States Geological Services survey. Since 2013, more than 11,000 wells have been drilled in the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Produced resources, of course, no longer count as undiscovered. And the same goes for proven reserves. Those factors have dropped the amount of undiscovered oil in the new undiscovered resources report substantially, to 4.3 billion barrels. Undiscovered gas, meanwhile, dropped to 4.9 trillion cubic feet. "The USGS assessment is of undiscovered resources; in other words, it’s a science-based estimate of what may be discovered in the basin in the future," said Sarah Ryker, USGS Associate Director for Energy and Minerals. "It’s different from – and complementary to – industry production numbers, which focus on the known or discovered resource. Our research focuses on areas of uncertainty." The new report takes into account what the latest technology can do, as well as new information about the formations that has become available. The fact that undiscovered resources dropped was not a surprise, North Dakota Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms said during the December oil production report. “What we have to keep in mind is that the Bakken and Three forks, as of the end of October, had cumulative production of 4 billion barrels of oil and it is still producing one million barrels a day, which indicates to us that from the existing well inventory it’s going to produce another 4 billion,” he said. “And then add to that 4.3 billion of undiscovered or undrilled and you actually have a pretty solid numbers pretty good number of 12.3. billion.” Helms said he believes that the USGS figure is on the lower side of what the ultimate number really is. “So you know, a little disappointed in the amount of the reduction, but not that surprised that it went down,” Helms said. “We’re doing a deeper dive into the analysis.” The methodology of the USGS study follows that used for all USGS oil and gas assessments, so that it can be compared to other USGS assessments for other basins across the country and over time. USGS is the only provider of publicly available estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources for onshore lands and offshore state waters. Technically recoverable resources means those resources that can be produced using today’s standard industry practices and technology. That differs from economic reserves, which refers to which quantities of oil and gas can be produced profitably.

Standing Rock, Corps urge Supreme Court to reject Dakota Access appeal -- The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and a federal agency are urging the U.S. Supreme Court to reject an appeal of the five-year-old lawsuit over the Dakota Access Pipeline. The project developer in the appeal seeks to have the high court reinstate a federal permit for the line’s Missouri River crossing. The justices are expected to decide early next year whether to take up the case. The appeal follows a January ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit affirming part of a lower court order that revoked the permit and required a new environmental review of the pipeline. “Though the dispute over the pipeline garnered national attention, the D.C. Circuit’s decision plowed no new ground,” lawyers for Standing Rock and other Sioux tribes fighting the pipeline wrote in a brief filed Thursday. The tribes argued that the justices should decline the pipeline developer’s petition to hear the case because appeals courts are not split on the issues surrounding the dispute. Disagreement among lower courts can prompt the Supreme Court to weigh in on an issue. The tribes say the D.C. Circuit judges applied a “conventional” review of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' permitting decisions and “found no abuse of discretion” in the lower court’s order revoking the permit.  The Corps permitted the pipeline’s river crossing, which is just upstream from the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation and where tribal members fear a leak could occur and harm their water supply. The pipeline is controlled by Texas-based Energy Transfer, which has long maintained that the line is safe. Past court decisions have found shortcomings in the Corps' original environmental analysis of the pipeline. The agency began a lengthier review last year and has pushed back the anticipated completion date several times. Attorneys for the Corps said in a court document filed Friday that the study should wrap up in November 2022, two months later than its previous estimate. The tribes in their brief said that once the review is complete, "The Corps will make a new permitting decision on a new record. In short, the (pipeline company’s) petition presents no question that merits review by this Court.” The Corps on Friday joined Standing Rock in opposing Dakota Access's appeal. The agency said a question at the heart of the dispute -- whether federal law obligates the agency to prepare a more thorough environmental review -- "will lack any substantial importance after the Corps in fact prepares one." Dakota Access has transported a significant portion of North Dakota’s oil production since 2017. The pipeline operator filed the appeal with the Supreme Court in September, arguing that lower courts indeed disagree on issues raised in the lawsuit. .

Texas Oil Company Charged for Negligence that Caused Disastrous Oil Spill in California Coast | Nature World News -A Houston-based oil corporation and two subsidiaries have been charged in connection to a large oil leak that occurred off the coast of southern California in October, contaminating seas, beaches, and endangering animals.Prosecutors claim that part of the cause of the leak was a failure to respond appropriately when alarms repeatedly warned personnel of a pipeline breach.A federal grand jury indicted Amplify Energy and its subsidiaries, which operate numerous oil rigs and a pipeline off the coast of Long Beach, with a single misdemeanor offense of unlawfully dumping oil.Investigators suspect the pipeline was damaged when the anchor of a cargo ship grabbed it in heavy winds in January, months before it exploded on October 1 and spilled up to 25,000 gallons (94,600 liters) of crude oil into the ocean.According to US authorities, the corporations were found to be irresponsible in six ways, including failing to respond to eight leak detection system alerts over a 13-hour period that should have alerted them to the spill and reduced the damage. Instead, the pipeline was shut down after each alert and then reactivated, pouring more oil into the water.Amplify claimed the pipeline was displaced by an unidentified shipping firm. That staff on and offshore responded to what they thought were false alerts since the system wasn't working correctly. According to the corporation, it alerted a potential leak at the platform where none existed.According to Amplify, the leak came from a portion of subsea pipe 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) distant.The business stated that "had the staff understood there was a genuine oil leak in the water, they would have shut down the pipeline immediately."The leak washed up on the beach at Huntington Beach, forcing the city's beaches and others around the Orange County coast to close for almost a week. Fishing in the affected area has only just restarted after tests revealed that the fish did not contain dangerous levels of oil pollutants. It also contaminated sensitive wetlands, which are important habitats for migratory and shorebirds and other endangered species. Even after the black globs were cleaned off the beaches, it's still unknown how much of a long-term impact the spill had on plants and animals. The corporation faces up to five years of probation if convicted and fines that might reach millions of dollars.According to Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley, the indictment verifies locals who saw the leak a day earlier and reported it."It's unfortunate that they practically misled to the community during press conferences and led people to believe that what they saw, smelled, and knew with their own eyes was not real," she added.

Second Oil Sheen Discovered Off Huntington Beach Coastline – (CBSLA) – A second oil sheen was spotted off the Huntington Beach coastline Wednesday, about one week after the first was discovered in the same general area.The sheen was detected about a mile offshore from Bolsa Chica State Beach, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response.Authorities reported on Thursday afternoon that despite preventative measures being taken, several tarballs were located on shore in Huntington Beach.In addition to this, a statement from the City of Long Beach indicated that shorelines could be further impacted, “The size of the sheen is currently undetermined, however, on its current trajectory northbound, the San Gabriel River, Long Beach shoreline and Port of Long Beach could be impacted as early as tomorrow morning, Dec. 24.”They noted that the inclement weather on Thursday would impact containment efforts, and make it easier for the oil sheen to travel.The source of the sheen was unknown.According to OSPR, “protective strategies” were implemented overnight at “sensitive environmental sites” as a precaution, including Talbert Marsh, Bolsa Chica wetlands, Newport Slough and the Santa Ana River.“An overflight is scheduled for this (Thursday) morning,” according to an OSPR Twitter post. “Samples were collected yesterday as part of the investigation and the source is yet to be determined.”On Dec. 15, an oil sheen about the size of a football field was discovered about two miles off of Bolsa Chica State Beach. Investigators said that sheen did not appear to be the result of a pipeline leak. It’s also unclear if it was connected to a storm which had occurred a day prior.On the morning of Oct. 2, a rupture was reported to a pipeline owned by Amplify Energy in federal waters at the Elly oil-rig platform, about 4 1/2 miles offshore of Huntington Beach. The nearly 18-mile pipeline runs from Amplify’s offshore drilling platforms to a pump station in Long Beach. About 25,000 gallons of crude oil leaked into the ocean.Federal authorities confirmed that a section of Amplify’s pipeline was damaged and moved more than 100 feet along the ocean floor, an indication that a ship’s anchormay have caused the spill.On Dec. 15, the same day that the first oil sheen was discovered, three companieswere federally charged in connection with the October oil spill.

New reports of oil sheen off Bolsa Chica prompt search Wednesday afternoon – Orange County Register - A response team has set out to search for an oil sheen reported Wednesday, Dec. 22, about a mile offshore of Bolsa Chica State Beach. If oil is found, it would be the second sighting in a week’s time and the third in the past month following the October spill that shut down beaches, businesses and harbor activity along the Orange County coastline. An afternoon post on Twitter by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Spill Prevention and Response said agencies were “responding to a report of a sheen approximately one-mile offshore Bolsa Chica State Beach.” “At this time, the source has not been determined.” officials said, adding any additional information would be posted when available. The U.S. Coast Guard and the county of Orange were participating, the message said. Bolsa Chica State Parks Lifeguard Chief Jeff David said someone first reported seeing a sheen off Seal Beach and the Coast Guard set out to investigate. He said response boats were near the Bolsa Chica wetlands inlet with booms. “They put those out possibly precautionary,” he said. “If it gets back there, that could damage the wildlife and the birds.” Lifeguards were told no further assistance was needed, he said. Just last week, a sheen about 400 feet long and 100 feet across sent response crews racing to protect wetlands inlets with berms and set booms to capture oil before it hit sensitive areas. Divers inspected the pipeline that spilled oil in October, reporting that breach was still secured. Further testing showed the oil wasn’t from that spill or a natural seepage, leaving authorities wondering where the oil came from. There had not been any new sightings reported since Friday. About a month ago, a sheen about 30-by-70-feet was determined to be possible residue from small droplets of oil coming from the damaged section of the pipeline.

Lawsuit to Protect Arctic Polar Bears From Oil Drilling Launched Against Biden Administration --The Center for Biological Diversity filed a notice of intent this week to sue the U.S. Department of the Interior and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for allegedly failing to adequately protect polar bears from a Western Arctic exploration project. Under the Endangered Species Act, a notice of intent is required 60 days before the pursuit of a formal lawsuit.The 88 Energy’s Peregrine Exploration Program, a five-year oil and gas exploration project that would run almost year-round and cause “near constant air and vehicle traffic, and other drilling-related activity” was approved by the outgoing Trump administration, the press release said. The company still needs approval from the Biden administration before drilling any new wells. Located in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve along the Colville River, the project would include the construction of roads and aircraft runways and cause disruptive noise pollution in polar bear habitats.“Every new oil well in the Arctic is another step toward the polar bear’s extinction,” Kristen Monsell, senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in the press release. “Biden should be phasing out oil and gas activity in the Arctic, not flouting key environmental laws to let oil companies search and drill for more oil in this beautiful, increasingly fragile ecosystem.”The population of polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea area is the most fragile population in the world, with only around 900 bears. Studies predict unless greenhouse gas pollution is immediately and drastically reduced, most subpopulations of polar bears in the world, including that of the Southern Beaufort Sea, will become extinct this century, and perhaps even as early as mid-century, the Center for Biological Diversity stated in the notice. The excessive noise caused by the drilling-related activities can cause the polar bears to stop feeding, interfere with their movements or even frighten mothers and cubs so that they leave their dens, according to the press release.

Oilsands Specialist Suncor Targeting 5% Production Growth in 2022 - With a vow to focus on efficiency, Suncor Energy Inc. set 2022 performance targets of 5% production growth while cutting capital expenditures by 6%. The 2022 corporate budget aims for combined oil and natural gas output of 750,000-790,000 boe/d. Spending goes down by C$300 million ($240 million) to C$4.7 billion ($3.76 billion). “We enter 2022 with strong momentum and remain steadfast in our focus on operational excellence, capital and cost discipline, increasing shareholder returns and delivering a more resilient future,” said Suncor President Mark Little. The northern Alberta oilsands continue to dominate Suncor operations, with the Calgary firm setting a 2022 annual average oil production target of 395,000-435,000 b/d. Oilsands operating costs are forecast to average C$25-28/bbl ($20-22.40), including purchases of natural gas for thermal extraction processes. Suncor described its pared down 2022 spending plans as “enabled by efficiencies across the business.” Oilsands plant maintenance and mine tailings pond clean ups, forecast to cost C$3.2-3.4 billion ($2.56-2.72 billion), top the budget. An additional C$2.1 billion ($1.68 billion) is earmarked for power projects, bitumen extraction wells and a life extension project for the Terra Nova production platform offshore of Newfoundland. The 2022 performance targets rely on annual average prices of US$70/bbl for West Texas Intermediate light oil, US$55/bbl for Western Canada Select heavy oil, and C$3.80/gigajoule ($3.20/MMBtu) for Canada natural gas.

New Oil And Gas Projects In UK Need To Pass Net-Zero Test - The UK will still allow the development of new oil and gas oilfields in the North Sea if they pass a so-called net-zero test, the government said on Monday as it opened a consultation seeking input on a new climate compatibility checkpoint for the oil and gas industry. The checkpoint will apply to any future oil and gas licenses to ensure they are aligned with the UK’s climate change commitments and net-zero by 2050 target, the government said. The proposed climate compatibility checkpoint “sets out potential tests that could be used to assess new licenses, including domestic demand for oil and gas, the sector’s projected production levels, the increasing prevalence of clean technologies such as carbon capture and hydrogen generation, and the sector’s continued progress against emissions reduction targets,” the UK said. “This new checkpoint will be key to our plans to support the oil and gas sector during its net zero transition. It helps safeguard the future of this vital UK industry as we create more opportunities for green jobs and investment across the country,” Energy and Climate Change Minister Greg Hands said. The intention of the checkpoint is to assess the compatibility of future licensing with UK climate change objectives and will not impact the consenting process for proposed developments that come under licenses that have already been awarded to licensees. “Such proposals are subject to a number of further checks including by the OGA under its revised Strategy, which is effectively a net zero test,” the government said.

UK Natural Gas Prices Hit New High, Trigger "Marketwide Crisis" - The latest jump in U.K. natural gas prices has been called a "national crisis" by multiple energy firms and industry groups in the country. They're requesting the government protect customers and suppliers as critical Russian gas flows into Europe plunge, nuclear outages in France, and cold weather send gas prices to stratospheric levels. On Tuesday, U.K. wholesale natural gas prices hit a new record high of 470p per therm (intraday). Prices have since eased to 451p per therm. FT spoke with London-listed Good Energy, EDF Energy, and the trade body Energy U.K. about the alarming situation in the country as the winter in the Northern Hemisphere begins. "This is a national crisis. Wholesale gas and power prices have increased to unprecedented levels over the last three weeks, creating an extremely difficult operating environment for every business in the industry," said Nigel Pocklington, CEO of Good Energy, a small renewable energy supplier. EDF Energy, the fourth-largest supplier in Britain, said high natgas prices are sending power prices skyrocketing, and it's "critical" for the government to "act now to support energy customers." Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of Energy U.K., said Britain faces "a marketwide crisis." "Other Treasuries in Europe have already responded to the crisis, but in the U.K., the energy sector is still asking if the chancellor knows that energy bills going up by over 50 percent in the new year is a problem for ordinary people, businesses, and the economy," Pinchbeck added. U.K. lawmakers are in panic mode to protect households by possibly capping power bills. The same is true for other politicians across Europe.

Germany says no decision on Nord Stream 2 before July - A regulatory decision allowing natural gas flows to Europe via Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline won’t be made before July, Germany’s federal network agency said. The regulator, also known as Bundesnetzagentur, halted the certification process in mid-November and asked the Swiss-based operator of the pipeline — which is owned by Russia’s Gazprom PJSC — to set up a German subsidiary to comply with European regulations. The agency will resume the certification as soon as the necessary criteria are met, its president, Jochen Homann, said Thursday at a news conference. “A decision won’t be made in the first half of 2022,” he said. The German regulator is still waiting for project operator Nord Stream 2 AG to submit documentation, Homann said, adding that “this is not in our hands.” In an emailed response, the company declined to specify “details of the procedure, its possible duration and impacts on the timing of the start of the pipeline operations.” The move confirms what the market had anticipated. European benchmark gas prices briefly jumped amid concerns that pipeline may only start operating once stockpiling for next winter is well under way. The continent is suffering from the worst supply crunch in decades, with gas inventories abnormally low and futures prices soaring to record levels. Once the German regulator resumes the certification process, it has some two months to reach a preliminary decision. It then has to submit the draft conclusion to the EU Commission, which will have another two to four months to express its own opinion. The German agency then has a further two months to make a final decision. Those are the maximum timeframes under European law, and the statement from Germany indicates the process may take the whole time allotted. Nord Stream 2, a twin gas link across the Baltic Sea, is set to carry as much as 55 billion cubic meters per year from Russia to Germany. The project was initially expected to start operations by the end of 2019, but it has faced multiple hurdles, including opposition in Europe and from the U.S. Construction of the pipeline was completed in September, despite U.S. sanctions. Germany and the U.S. have also indicated the future of Nord Stream 2 could be at risk due to the possibility of conflict, as Russia escalates its troop presence near the border with Ukraine. The pipeline was set to be among the issues raised at a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels Thursday amid the growing military threat. Latvia Prime Minister Arturs Karins was among those to say that sanctions for the gas link should be on the table ahead of the summit.

Ukraine calls for Russia sanctions as some EU leaders push for Nord Stream 2 to be added to list - Ukraine wants the EU to quickly outline a package of sanctions to use against Russia if the Kremlin chooses to step up its military aggression against Kyiv. The call comes as concerns grow about the intentions of President Vladimir Putin and the increasing Russian troop presence near the Ukrainian border. "If you at least set up or pull together a serious package of sanctions and you let Russia know this is what's going to happen then that will deter Russia," Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, said. "At this point our partners maintain the constructive ambiguity approach, they say that consequences for Russia will be severe and unprecedented and so far and so on, but they don't go into details," The heightened tensions at the Ukraine border with Russia are being discussed by EU heads of state in Brussels on Thursday. It is so far unclear how far they are willing to go to address Russia's military activity, but some EU leaders share Ukraine's view that a package of sanctions needs to be developed soon. In fact, some European capitals have even suggested that Nord Stream 2, the contentious gas pipeline that bypasses places like Ukraine and Poland, should feature on a potential sanctions list against Russia. "I think we will raise this issue because this is one of the instruments which could be very strong in relation to Russia," Gitanas Nauseda, the president of Lithuania, said at his arrival in Brussels on Nord Stream 2. This energy project is meant to bring gas into Europe from Russia to Germany. However, the pipeline has not yet gained full regulatory approval and has been embroiled in political controversy. On the one hand, some politicians, notably in Germany, argue that the project is an economic matter. Critics of the pipeline, however, say it increases Europe's dependency on Russia. Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock has said that Nord Stream 2 should not be allowed to operate if there's more Russian aggression toward Ukraine. Putin has previously pressured EU officials to approve the project, saying it is an easy solution to bring down energy costs in the region. A spokesperson for the Kremlin said Thursday that Nord Stream 2 was in the interests of Russia and Germany, Reuters reported.

Russian gas exports to Europe via Yamal pipeline remain tiny -- Russian natural gas deliveries to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline have remained at very low levels early on Monday after a drop on the weekend, data from German network operator Gascade showed. Flows at the Mallnow metering point on the German-Polish border were down to an hourly volume of only 366,734 kilowatt hours (kWh/h) comparing with more than 1,200,000 kWh/h on Saturday and more than 10,000,000 kWh/h on Friday. Flows on the pipeline, a major route for Russian gas to Europe via Belarus, are hovering at between 9,000,000 and 12,000,000 kWh/h on average this month. Russian gas exporter Gazprom did not respond to a request for comment. Gazprom has not booked volumes for transit via the pipeline for December and buys the capacity at daily auctions. Nominations for Monday’s volumes at the Velke Kapusany metering point on the Slovakia-Ukraine border, another major route to Europe, were for 953,313.0 megawatt hours (MWh), or 89.97 million cubic metres, similar to levels so far in December.

Russia Reluctant To Boost Gas Flows As Cold Snap Hits Europe - Natural gas exports from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline will remain limited at the start of this week as true winter begins and Russia keeps more gas for domestic consumption, with maximum temperatures in Moscow dipping below zero. Bloomberg reports that after booking limited transit space on the Yamal-Europe pipeline over the weekend, Russia has remained reluctant to boost volumes today, which will likely aggravate the already grave gas supply situation in Europe, which is also facing colder temperatures this week.According to data from the Regional Booking Platform, bookings for Russian gas flows via the pipeline, which terminates in Germany, stood at 4 percent of its capacity. This compares with an average bookings level of 35 percent of capacity since the start of the month.Russia has also not booked any capacity on the transit route via Ukraine for today. However, Gazprom has started refilling the gas storage facilities it manages in Europe, although slowly.Meanwhile, the temperatures in several European countries are expected to fall below zero this week, which will put additional strain on already strained grids, with wind power output much lower than demand requires, and gas in storage depleting fast due to the seasonal peak in demand.On top of this, France's EDF had to shut down two nuclear plans after an inspection revealed signs of corrosion on some reactors. These account for a tenth of the country's electricity output and will add to Europe's troubles.The situation is deteriorating fast, and could end in blackouts. Last month, Trafigura's chief executive Jeremy Weir warned that rolling blackouts were a possibility because of the limited natural gas supplies on the continent. "We haven't got enough gas at the moment quite frankly, we're not storing for the winter period. So hence there's a real concern that there's a potential if we have a cold winter that we could have rolling blackouts in Europe," Weir said.

Europe Desperate for LNG While Asia Has Plenty - Asia’s relentless buying of liquefied natural gas earlier this year has left the region so well stocked for winter that spot shipments are being diverted to energy-hungry Europe. Multiple vessels are now being diverted from Asia after prices in Europe traded at a rare premium, traders with knowledge of the matter said. A looming LNG wave will bring much needed supplies just as temperatures are dropping fast and is helping push European gas prices down from record-highs last week. Energy prices soared in Asia earlier this year as China stockpiled everything from coal to fertilizers ahead of the winter. Now that a mild start to winter has ensued in Northeast Asia, buyers from Japanese utilities to Chinese factories are sated, while spot inquiries for cargoes have dropped to a whimper last week, said traders. In Europe however, buyers are struggling to replenish inventories amid uncertainty over the startup of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. From Italy to Poland, the continent has started to bid up the market to secure cargoes, although at prices surpassing those seen at the peak of last winter. “Europe is simply bidding gas away from Asia to not run out of electricity,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a call with reporters Friday. Temperatures are plunging while it’s been a relatively mild winter so far in Asia, he said. Sellers have begun diverting cargoes away from Asia to take advantage of the spread, which may only accelerate over the next weeks. Traders are watching for any signs on whether economics would shift to make it profitable to send supplies to Europe directly from production facilities in the Pacific region. Typically, Europe is supplied from the Atlantic basin producers such as the U.S., northern Russia or Nigeria, or the Middle East. Supplies not limited by destination restrictions can head where the best market is. Prices in Europe are so high that some Asian countries may even choose to re-export LNG they imported for their own consumption. But this rare move is unlikely at the moment because LNG cargoes from the U.S. and Western Africa are much preferred due to the time traveled, Mathew Ang, an analyst at Kpler, said. The Minerva Chios vessel was sailing from the U.S. to Asia when it U-turned around December 15 and is heading toward the Red Sea, according to Bloomberg shipping data. The Lngships Manhattan, which was originally heading to China, is on its way to North Europe from the U.S., Kpler’s Ang said. More shipments could follow suit although they aren’t likely to be cheap.

Europe’s Gas Prices Jump To Record As Key Pipeline From Russia Halts Flows - European gas prices jumped to an all-time high on Tuesday after natural gas on a key pipeline from Russia to Germany reversed flow eastward and freezing temperatures took hold in many parts of Europe. The benchmark price for Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) surged by 11 percent early on Tuesday to a record 162.78 euros per megawatt-hour. According to data from German operator Gascade, cited by Reuters, flows of natural gas from Russia on the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany have been falling since the start of the weekend, stopped completely on Tuesday, and then reversed direction from Germany east to Poland. Gas prices in the UK also surged to a new all-time high after hitting the previous record just a few days ago last week. UK gas prices soared to an all-time high of 350 pence per therm last Thursday, which was a massive 520 percent jump year to date. Today, the UK benchmark price hit 400p per therm—a new record. Freezing temperatures across Europe, low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany have all combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records today.“EU gas and power open higher again today with gas flows from Russia on the Yamal-Europe pipeline dropping to near zero. Just as German wind output falls to a five-week low and freezing temperatures spread across Europe,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted.At the start of this week, natural gas exports from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline remain limited as true winter begins, Russia keeps more gas for domestic consumption, and Gazprom has not booked too much additional day-ahead capacity at auctions.Traders are watching closely every tender in which Gazprom is set to book pipeline capacity via the main pipeline routes to Germany and Poland. Every time Russia doesn’t book too much additional capacity, Europe’s benchmark gas prices jump.Some analysts and EU officials have said that Russia is deliberately keeping extra gas supply – the one on top of its contractual obligations – low amid the row over Ukraine and the delays in the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.Russia denies there is a connection between its limited extra gas supply to Europe and the current events with Ukraine and Nord Stream 2.“This is a purely commercial situation. You have to ask Gazprom about the details,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, commenting on the halted gas flows to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

Natural gas prices in Europe explode to all-time highs as major Russian flow stops --Natural gas prices in Europe exploded on Tuesday, December 21, 2021, after a major pipeline that brings Russian gas to Europe slowed output over the past couple of days and completely stopped delivering on Tuesday. This combined with record-high prices of electricity after France closed 4 of its largest nuclear reactors last week, low wind energy output, and cold weather to further deteriorate Europe's energy stability ahead of very cold Christmas and New Year. On Saturday, December 18, gas flow at the Mallnow metering point on the German-Polish border sharply dropped from around 13 500 000 kWh/h to 2 250 000 kWh/h and to 1 800 000 kWh/h on December 19. The flow further dropped to 1 634 206 on December 20 until it completely stopped early December 21.1 The westward flow was still 0 as of 08:30 UTC on December 22. As a result, the front-month wholesale Dutch gas price (European benchmark) rose to all-time high of 180.27 EUR per MWh on December 21. On July 5, 2021, it was 37.95 EUR per MWh and on October 5 116.8 EUR per MWh. To put these prices in perspective, take a look at numerical and percentage data for 2021 (first two graphs) and all-time data (graphs 3 and 4). "Europe has very little storage buffer this winter and it's balance is therefore a lot more dependent on imports than in previous years," James Waddell, head of European gas at Energy Aspects, said.2 "Additionally, Gazprom has traditionally shipped around 20% of its supply to Europe through Poland, but these flows have been inconsistent this year and driving up uncertainty about how much gas Europe will actually receive from Russia." On Monday, December 20, European electricity prices also surged to record highs after France announced the closure of four of its largest nuclear reactors.3 To meet the rising energy demand, French power giant EDF restarted fossil fuel generators and the same is happening with some other producers.

Russia Puts The Blame On Europe As Energy Crisis Worsens -The European Union (EU) is reportedly reconsidering its position on extending long-term natural gas contracts beyond 2049 as part of reforms in its natural gas market to meet the net-zero by 2050 goal. Should the European Commission’s proposal be endorsed by EU heads of state and government this week, putting a timeline to the end of long-term gas contracts would open another rift with Russia, which provides one-third of Europe’s gas supply via pipelines under long-term deals. The measure, if approved by the EU, would run against Russia’s position that long-term deals are beneficial for Europe and moving away from them and increasing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) was and will be a mistake. Some EU member states are wary of what they perceive as Moscow using gas as a political tool to influence geopolitics. However, as it stands, especially with the low levels of gas in storage and surging gas and energy prices, supply from Russia and Russia’s willingness to provide additional volumes to Europe on top of its contractual commitments has been and will be a key driver of the gas market and prices at European hubs this winter. Despite the current crisis, the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, is reportedly drafting plans to quit long-term gas supply contracts by 2049. At the same time, it plans to enhance the security of its gas supply, Bloomberg reportedthis week, citing a draft document prepared by the Commission. The EU has struggled with insufficient gas supply for months now, and the situation is not about to change as Russia continues to supply precisely what it had committed to deliver under long-term contracts. This has earned it accusations of using gas as a political weapon and increased the EU’s determination to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.Russia, for its part, denies any accusations about using gas for geopolitics and reaffirms it supplies the volumes of gas to its customers in Europe as per long-term contracts. And it says Europe’s decisions to move away from long-term deals are one of the reasons for the current“[T]he practices of our European partners [are to blame]. These practices have reaffirmed that, properly speaking, they have made mistakes. We were talking with the former European Commission; all of its activities were aimed at curtailing the so-called long-term contracts and at transitioning to gas exchange trading,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in early October during a meeting to discuss Russia’s energy industry. “It turned out – and today this is absolutely obvious – that this policy is erroneous, erroneous for the reason that it fails to take into account the gas market specifics dependent on a large number of uncertainty factors,” Putin said, per the Kremlin’s website, just as Europe’s gas prices hit record highs.

Asia diverts extra LNG inventories to gas-starved Europe--Asia’s relentless buying of liquefied natural gas earlier this year has left the region so well stocked for winter that spot shipments are being diverted to energy-hungry Europe. Multiple vessels are now being diverted from Asia after prices in Europe traded at a rare premium, traders with knowledge of the matter said. A looming LNG wave will bring much needed supplies just as temperatures are dropping fast and is helping push European gas prices down from record-highs last week. Energy prices soared in Asia earlier this year as China stockpiled everything from coal to fertilizers ahead of the winter. Now that a mild start to winter has ensued in Northeast Asia, buyers from Japanese utilities to Chinese factories are sated, while spot inquiries for cargoes have dropped to a whimper last week, said traders. In Europe however, buyers are struggling to replenish inventories amid uncertainty over the startup of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. From Italy to Poland, the continent has started to bid up the market to secure cargoes, although at prices surpassing those seen at the peak of last winter. “Europe is simply bidding gas away from Asia to not run out of electricity,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a call with reporters Friday. Temperatures are plunging while it’s been a relatively mild winter so far in Asia, he said. Sellers have begun diverting cargoes away from Asia to take advantage of the spread, which may only accelerate over the next weeks. Traders are watching for any signs on whether economics would shift to make it profitable to send supplies to Europe directly from production facilities in the Pacific region. Typically, Europe is supplied from the Atlantic basin producers such as the U.S., northern Russia or Nigeria, or the Middle East. Supplies not limited by destination restrictions can head where the best market is.

European Gas Drops 18% As US Sends LNG Flotilla -European natural gas prices plunged Thursday after news that a liquefied natural gas (LNG) flotilla from the U.S. was headed to Europe. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that ten vessels are headed to the fuel-starved continent while another 20 ships are crossing the Atlantic but have not determined their final destination. The news of the flotilla sent the benchmark Dutch front-month gas spiraling down 18% to 141 euros in Amsterdam, wiping out this week's gains. Plunging gas prices were a relief for European power customers. French power contracts tumbled 24% to 775 euros per megawatt-hour and German electricity fell 15% to 277 euros per megawatt-hour. The reason for the flotilla is that the European and U.S. natgas spread is the widest ever and well over a 15-year range. The hefty premium has made it worthwhile for commodity traders to take advantage of massive arbitrage opportunities. While the spread has plunged from the highest extreme ever, for context, European gas is equivalent to a $273 price for a barrel of crude oil... strongly suggesting that demand for U.S. oil products is building.

Oil spills hit 14m litres as Shell’s N800b judgment upsets industry - As International Oil Companies (IOCs) are planning to divest from Nigeria, concerns are beginning to mount over growing cases of oil spillage in the Niger Delta region and the N800 billion court judgment between Shell Nigeria and some communities in the region. In less than three years, weak infrastructure, especially pipelines, according to stakeholders, has led to the spillage of 14 million litres of crude oil, worth N2.8 billion coupled with cascading environmental dangers and health burden, leading to increase in cases of infant mortality and cancers. In fact, fresh intrigues are beginning to emerge ahead January, when the court would decide the fate of Shell Nigeria in an N800 billion damages earlier awarded by the Federal High Court in Owerri for the 2019 spillage in Eleme communities of River State. The jury is nearly out in the biggest dispute award ever in Nigeria’s volatile oil industry. But whether Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) Limited, along with its two parent companies in the United Kingdom and The Hague, Netherlands, can come clean of culpability in a historic dispute debt awarded against it in a spill that occurred on swamp farmlands in Egbalor, Ebubu in Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers State, is what industry watchers are waiting to see next month. Shell, using all its legal resources, is seeking to convince the judge at the Court of Appeal to obviate payment of damages to some 88 persons, who got judgment in November 2020 from a Federal High Court in Owerri over spillage on their fishing facilities in Ejalawa community, Oken-Ogogu swamp farmlands. The judge of the Federal High Court, Owerri, Imo State, T.G. Ringim, had in the judgment last year, held that Shell Nigeria, Shell International Exploration and Production BV (SIE&P) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) were liable for the spill.

Chinese Teapot Refineries Ramp Up Oil Imports From Iran - Independent Chinese refineries increased its crude oil imports from Iran last month as the government issued a new batch of import quotas. Total crude imports were up by almost 40 percent from October to an average of 600,000 bpd, Bloomberg reported, citing data from Kpler. The new quotas were issued in mid-October. What follows now, however, will be a slowdown in imports from all sources as China tightens restrictions in response to the Omicron variant and as Beijing continues to crack down on independent refiners. An effort to curb pollution ahead of the Winter Olympics will also affect imports negatively, as will the Lunar New Year holiday when demand declines. Chinese imports in March 2022 are set to be around 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd). This would be about 1 million bpd lower than the crude oil imports in March this year, according to estimates from consultants FGE cited by Bloomberg. This year, Chinese crude oil imports are already on track to post the first annual decline compared to 2020. This would be the first such drop in average annual crude imports since records began back in 2004, according to data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs. Even so, imports of Iranian crude have been strong among private refiners, or teapots, due to the price discount, especially as Saudi Arabia, China’s top supplier of crude, raised its official selling prices for Asian clients. According to traders cited by Bloomberg, Iranian crude sells at a discount of up to $4 per barrel to ICE Brent futures prices. Although Chinese state refiners shun Iranian oil, at least publicly, because of U.S. sanctions, private refiners are not subject to that much international scrutiny and have never really stopped buying Iranian crude. Also, private refiners do not have long-term contractual commitments with other suppliers, unlike state refiners.

OPEC+ DOC turns five - The Declaration of Cooperation (DOC) between OPEC Member Countries and 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries turned five this month, OPEC highlighted. OPEC Member Countries and Azerbaijan, the Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Equatorial Guinea (which later joined OPEC), Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan gathered in Vienna, Austria, to agree the deal back in December 2016. The birth of the DOC built on the ‘Algiers Accord’, signed in Algeria on September 28, 2016, and the subsequent ‘Vienna Agreement’, decided on November 30 of the same year in Vienna at the 171st Meeting of the OPEC Conference, OPEC outlined. The inaugural OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting saw participating countries take several decisions in view of oil market conditions and prospects in the short and medium terms, as well as in recognition of the need for joint cooperation by oil producers to achieve sustainable oil market stability in the interest of producers, consumers, investors and the global economy, OPEC noted. “The Declaration of Cooperation is an unprecedented collaborative framework of leading oil producers that saw the need to come together during a critical juncture in the global oil industry,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo said in an organization statement. “If it was not for this group of countries and the courageous act that they have undertaken, the oil sector would, without a doubt, be in a different situation,” he added in the statement. “Looking back to 2016, very few believed that the collaborative efforts would grow and evolve into a major, robust cooperative force to help restore much needed stability in the global oil market. However, the 23 oil-producing countries have continued to rise to the challenges they have encountered, including instrumenting effective and visionary policies to combat the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,” Barkindo went on to say. In response to the oil market contraction caused by the pandemic, the DoC’s 23 countries adopted the largest in size and longest in time voluntary oil production adjustment in the history of OPEC and the oil industry, OPEC noted. The organization stated that these efforts have supported the global pandemic recovery process and were recognized at the highest levels of government and by other international organizations and academia. The last OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on December 2. The meeting technically remains in session, according to an OPEC release earlier this month, with an additional meeting planned for January 4, 2022.

Goldman says oil could hit $100, demand might reach 'new record high' in the next two years - Goldman Sachs predicts a new high in oil demand in 2022, and again in 2023. Damien Courvalin, the investment bank's head of energy research, also said Friday that oil at $100 per barrel was a possibility. Oil demand was already at record levels before the latest omicron variant hit, and furthermore, demand for air travel should continue to recover, he said. "We've already had record high demand before this newest variant, and you're adding higher jet demand and the global economy is still growing," Courvalin said in an energy outlook briefing with reporters on Friday. "You see how we will average a new record high in demand in 2022, and again, in 2023." Both international benchmark Brent crude and U.S. crude prices have spiked above $80 in recent months as post-pandemic demand outstrips supply. Surging natural gas prices have also caused crises around the world, most notably in Europe. The omicron variant has dampened sentiment, however, pushing prices back to just above $70 in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Courvalin expects restrictions that were hurting air travel to ease. Courvalin said he would not rule out the possibility of oil prices hitting $100, and there are "two paths" that could lead to that. The first is that costs go up as oil companies ramp up production. "There's inflation, everywhere else in the economy, and eventually there's inflation in oil services," he said. The other possibility is if the supply of oil can't meet the demand as global economies reopen from the pandemic.

Oil may hit $380 per barrel -- World oil prices could hit $380 per barrel in 2050. That’s according to one scenario published in Lukoil’s recent Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 report, which considered three scenarios for the global energy sector – Evolution, Equilibrium and Transformation. The report outlined that, taking into account a carbon price, oil prices will vary greatly depending the scenario. High carbon prices and inflation were projected to lead to $380 per barrel oil prices in the Transformation scenario, with prices in the Equilibrium and Evolution scenarios forecasted to come in at $197 per barrel and $128 per barrel, respectively. Lukoil’s report notes that the Evolution scenario assumes the ongoing development of global energy markets within the framework of the current international energy policy and national programs, considering existing technological capabilities. The Equilibrium scenario is said to be based on a balance between achieving climate goals and economic development and the Transformation scenario is said to assume a radical restructuring of global energy and industry as well as carbon neutrality of the leading economies by 2050. “In our outlook we estimate three possible decarbonization trajectories, including the Transformation scenario, which assumes aggressive phase out of hydrocarbons and the most efficient and rapid development of renewable energy and electric transport,” The President of Lukoil, V.U. Alekperov, stated in the report. “At the same time, according to our estimates, the development of the global energy is currently going according to the Evolution scenario, which does not allow to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement,” he added in the report. “In this regard, it is necessary to focus even more on decarbonizing production, creating incentives for the development of renewable energy, other low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency. At the same time, it is important to minimize the possible negative consequences of an accelerated energy transition, including a significant increase in the cost of energy resources,”

Oil Futures Slide to 2-Week Low as Demand Outlook Weakens - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the prompt-month Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange slid to two-week lows in early trading Monday as global oil demand, already set to weaken seasonally in the first quarter, is seen further restrained amid increased travel restrictions in Europe amid spiking COVID cases. Most countries in Europe have adopted some form of restriction on travel, from the more extreme state of emergency declared through March 2022 in Bulgaria, to self-quarantine requirements in Italy for unvaccinated travelers in an effort to slow COVID infections. Late last week, France banned nonessential travel to and from Britain, where omicron is now the dominant COVID strain, while in the Netherlands officials reimposed a lockdown that closes through mid-January all nonessential business activity. Health officials in the United States are raising concerns that the fast-spreading omicron variant will swamp hospitals in coming weeks, but the United States hasn't added new restrictions, although outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said his administration is considering changes to the New Year's Eve celebration in Times Square. The latest concerns over COVID are taking place as air travel in the United States is picking up pace. The Transportation Security Administration reported passenger throughput at TSA checkpoints in U.S. airports topped two million from Dec. 16 through Dec. 18, the most recent data available, albeit down 16% from the comparable period in 2019. Seasonally, global oil demand is weakest in the first quarter, although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries earlier this month revised higher its projection for first quarter 2022 demand by 1.11 million barrels per day (bpd) to 99.13 million bpd compared to a fourth quarter estimate of 99.49 million bpd. OPEC said a slowed demand recovery in the fourth quarter would be realized in the first quarter. On Dec. 14, International Energy Agency said global oil supply would likely outpace demand by 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter 2022, and by 2 million bpd in the second quarter, as supply cuts from OPEC+ continue to unwind. OPEC+ is set to increase production by 400,000 bpd in January, continuing their agreement reached in July to return 400,000 bpd in oil output cut in April 2020 in the depths of the pandemic each month until all cut production is restored. In early trading, NYMEX January WTI futures were down more than $3 at $67.75 bbl, with the February contract trading at $67.70 bbl. ICE February Brent futures were $2.70 lower near $70.80 bbl, with the March contract trading at parity. NYMEX January ULSD futures were down more than 8 cents at $2.1370 gallon, with January RBOB futures 6cts lower near $2.0610 gallon.

Oil Down on Virus and Manchin Fallout - Oil headed for its worst single-day rout this month on growing concern over the rapid spread of the omicron virus variant and turmoil for President Joe Biden’s economic plans. Futures in New York fell as much as 6.4% to trade near $66 a barrel ahead of the January contract’s expiration on Monday. Pessimism prevailed across financial markets as rising infections prompted restrictions on travel. U.S. economic sentiment took a hit after Biden’s $2 trillion spending package was derailed by the surprise revolt of Senator Joe Manchin. “The uncertainty around the response to omicron” is fueling the fear and volatility in oil markets, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. While some governments at first said they were trying to avoid lockdowns, more may be forced to capitulate as omicron takes hold. Oil’s market structure is also showing signs of weakness. West Texas Intermediate futures for delivery in January slipped to a discount to February contacts as omicron darkened the near-term demand outlook. The Brent prompt spread was also in a bearish contango pattern. Oil has fluctuated in recent weeks amid conflicting signals about omicron’s potential impact to demand. Bearish headwinds continue mounting with consumption in Asia softening and central banks pivoting toward tighter monetary policy to reign in accelerating inflation. As the year comes to an end, moving into the holiday period, thinner trading volumes can exacerbate prices swings. Manchin blindsided the White House on Sunday with his rejection of Biden’s tax-and-spending package, leaving Democrats with few options for reviving it. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists cut their U.S. economic growth forecasts. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery, which expires Monday, fell $4.50 to $66.36 at 10:45 a.m. in New York. The more active February contract dropped $4.13 to $66.59. Brent for February settlement dropped $3.41 to $70.11 a barrel. Meanwhile, New York state broke a record for new infections and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio called on the federal government to step up supplies of tests and treatments amid a spike in infections caused by omicron. The Dutch government announced plans to enforce a stricter lockdown, while Germany’s health minister warned of another virus wave caused by omicron.

Oil caps biggest selloff of month --Oil posted its worst single-day rout this month on growing concern over the rapid spread of the omicron virus variant and turmoil for President Joe Biden’s economic plans. Futures in New York closed down 3.7 percent, trading around $68 a barrel, as the January contract expired on Monday. Pessimism prevailed across financial markets as rising infections prompted restrictions on travel, while U.S. economic sentiment took a hit after Biden’s $2 trillion spending package was derailed by the surprise revolt of Senator Joe Manchin. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery, which expired Monday, fell $2.63 to settle at $68.23 in New York. The more active February contract dropped $2.11 to $68.61 Brent for February settlement dropped $2 to $71.52 a barrel “The uncertainty around the response to omicron” is fueling the fear and volatility in oil markets, While some governments at first said they were trying to avoid lockdowns, more may be forced to capitulate as omicron takes hold. Oil’s market structure is also showing signs of weakness. West Texas Intermediate futures for delivery in January slipped to a discount to February contacts as omicron darkened the near-term demand outlook. The Brent prompt spread was also in a bearish contango pattern. Oil has fluctuated in recent weeks amid conflicting signals about omicron’s potential impact to demand. Bearish headwinds continue mounting with consumption in Asia softening and central banks pivoting toward tighter monetary policy to rein in accelerating inflation. As the year comes to an end, moving into the holiday period, thinner trading volumes can exacerbate prices swings. Manchin blindsided the White House on Sunday with his rejection of Biden’s tax-and-spending package, leaving Democrats with few options for reviving it. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists cut their U.S. economic growth forecasts. Meanwhile, New York state broke a record for new infections and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio called on the federal government to step up supplies of tests and treatments amid a spike in infections caused by omicron. The Dutch government announced plans to enforce a stricter lockdown, while Germany’s health minister warned of another virus wave caused by omicron. The World Economic Forum postponed its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next month. “It is not a case of if but when governments impose tougher restrictions,”

Oil Futures Advance as Traders Gauge Omicron Demand Loss - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange moved higher in early trading Tuesday, retracing a portion of Monday's selloff, as market participants consider the effects of the omicron variant on global oil demand. Monday's selling pressed the oil contracts to test their early December lows plumbed following news the fast-moving COVID variant that emerged from South Africa having reached Europe in late November, with new cases spiking in Europe that have prompted a series of government responses, including travel restrictions and reinstating lockdowns. Overnight, Thailand is reported to have reinstated mandatory quarantines, with tightening COVID restrictions in Asia again risking further supply chain disruptions that have fanned inflation. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday the omicron variant now accounts for 73% of new U.S. COVID cases. The World Health Organization said the new variant has been found in 43 states in nearly 90 countries globally. Where there is community transmission, the number of cases is doubling in 1.5 to 3 days. The Imperial College COVID-19 response team on Dec. 16 issued a report that found "strong evidence of immune evasion" both from natural infection and vaccine-induced protection, and that the risk of natural reinfection from omicron is 5.41 times higher than for the delta variant. Omicron cases have been mild overall compared with previous COVID strains, with both the rapidity in new cases and the less lethal strain an historic precession in how pandemics end. However, WHO said it is "unwise" to assume omicron is mild. The surge in COVID cases in Europe is expected to again dent consumer sentiment in the Eurozone, which fell to a negative 6.8 in November and is seen declining to a negative 8. Exorbitant energy costs are also seen to again having derailed consumer confidence, including in Germany where a survey on consumer climate for January by Growth From Knowledge released overnight declined from a negative 1.8 to a negative 6.8 that was well above market expectations for a negative 2.5. In early trading, NYMEX February West Texas Intermediate was up $1 near $69.65 barel (bbl), with ICE February Brent up a similar amount to $72.50 bbl. NYMEX January ULSD futures gained a little more than 3 cents to $2.2040 gallon and January RBOB futures were up 2.3 cents at $2.1130 gallon.

Oil prices rise but Omicron worries linger - Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after a sharp fall in the previous session as investors' appetite for risk improved, although they remained cautious amid the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant across the globe. Brent crude settled $2.46, or 3.4%, higher at $73.98 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.51, or 3.66%, to settle at $71.12 per barrel. "After a rough couple of days, crude prices are rebounding as much of the COVID wall of worry has been priced in," said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA. Countries across Europe were considering new curbs on movement as the fast-moving Omicron variant swept the world days before Christmas, throwing travel plans into chaos and unnerving financial markets. Omicron infections are multiplying rapidly across Europe, the United States and Asia, including in Japan, where a single cluster at a military base has grown to at least 180 cases. "This is a pragmatic market that wants to be bullish but knows relief rallies, like the one this morning, will not last," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. "The upside is likely to be limited and more restrictions will be greeted with renewed selling," he added. Still, Moderna Inc said on Monday that a booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine appeared to be protective against the fast-spreading Omicron variant in laboratory testing, providing some hope to investors. On the supply front, OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rose to 117% in November from 116% a month earlier, two sources from the group told Reuters, indicating production levels remain well below agreed targets. In the United States, crude oil inventories were expected to have fallen for a fourth consecutive week, while distillate and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, due on Tuesday, and the EIA, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, due on Wednesday.

Oil Futures Waver After Libyan Crisis Spurs Relief Rally - - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange were little changed early Wednesday after Tuesday's relief rally following Monday's selloff to two-week lows. The market is grappling with the prospect of less oil demand amid reaction to spiking omicron cases, an energy crisis in Europe and geopolitical flareups that could endure. A force majeure declaration by Libya's National Oil Company on Monday staved off a selloff sparked by increasing mobility restrictions in Europe in response to surging COVID infections, with the omicron variant found to infect at a rate 5.41 times higher than for the delta variant and to evade current vaccines, according to a Dec. 16 report from the Imperial College COVID-19 response team. A widening conflict in Libya that cuts off more exports would tighten the oil-demand balance against expectations, with Libyan oil production having averaged 1.14 million bpd in November, according to the most recent data available. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday said the omicron variant now accounts for 73% of new U.S. COVID cases, with the World Health Organization reporting that the new variant has been found in 43 states in nearly 90 countries globally. The International Energy Agency earlier this month cut its global oil demand outlook by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2021 and 2022 because of surging COVID cases, noting in particular that a recovery in jet fuel demand would be most hobbled. Travel restrictions proliferate through Europe. Separately, natural gas and electricity prices in Europe are again reaching record highs as another cold front descends on parts of the continent with gas reserves low and Russian oil flow running below its historic rate. Russia accounts for 35% to 40% of Europe's gas supply. Critics say Russia is willfully holding back gas supply, which it denies. Overnight, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the West has taken an "aggressive line" regarding Ukraine that could force Moscow to make a tough response, according to Reuters. Putin said Russia has nowhere to run, noting Ukraine sits at its border. While rejecting accusations from Ukraine and the United States that Russia is planning an invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has amassed tens of thousands of troops at the border. NYMEX February West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed at $71.20 barrel (bbl), and ICE February Brent was trading near $74 bbl. NYMEX January ULSD futures were flat at $2.2580 gallon, and the January RBOB contract softened to $2.1450 gallon.

WTF WTI? Oil Spikes After Biggest Gasoline Inventory Build In 6 Months -- Bwuahahaha... WTI reversed its loss on the big gasoline build and is now screaming higher... One possible reason is, as Bloomberg reports, total crude stockpiles, including both commercial inventories and crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 7.25 million barrels in the week to Dec. 17. The withdrawal of 2.5 million barrels from the SPR came on top of a 4.7 million barrel drop in commercial stockpiles. That’s the biggest drop in total crude stockpiles since July. Oil prices continued their exuberant 'Omicron Schmomicron' rebound overnight with WTI back above $71.50 ahead of this morning's official inventory and production data. Amid utter carnage in the European power markets, US energy markets remain relatively calm.“Data remains supportive, with supply outages, elevated flight activity and congestion on roads resulting in still falling inventories,” “Concern on new mobility restrictions impacting oil demand as a result of the omicron variant is keeping prices in check, however.”DOE

• Crude -4.715mm (-3.15mm exp, API -3.67mm)
• Cushing +1.463mm
• Gasoline +5.533mm - biggest build since June
• Distillates +396k

After a big draw last week, analysts expected another sizable drop in US crude stocks and they were right as crude inventory drew down 4.7mm barrels (more than the 3.15mm expected). Cushing stocks rose for the 6th straight week. Most notably, Gasoline stocks surged higher last week by 5.5mm barrels - the biggest weekly build since June...

Oil prices rise on inventory drawdown, though Omicron caution lingers -- Oil prices rose on Wednesday on fears of tight supply and a drawdown in U.S. inventories, despite worries about the likely hit to economic activity from the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant. U.S. inventories fell more than expected, with crude stocks down by 4.7 million barrels, though that is in part due to year-end tax considerations that encourage companies not to store crude barrels. Brent crude futures settled $1.31, or 1.77%, higher at $75.29 a barrel after gaining 3.4% in the last session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $1.64, or 2.3%, to settle at $72.76 per barrel. "Because supplies are below average across the board, there's not a lot of room for error." Gasoline storage rose sharply in the most recent week, fanning worries that U.S. travellers were abruptly changing plans, potentially hurting demand in the world's largest gasoline consumer. Coronavirus-driven mobility curbs across the globe added to fears of a drop in fuel demand. Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and South Korea are among countries that have reimposed partial or full lockdowns or other social distancing measures in recent days. It is still unclear whether the Omicron variant is more deadly than Delta, the strain which has been dominant in recent months. A study from South Africa suggested the virus was less likely to send people to the hospital than Delta as governments worldwide try to contain the rapid spread of the variant. Moderna Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel said on Tuesday that the vaccine manufacturer does not expect any problems in developing a booster shot to protect against the Omicron variant and could begin work in a few weeks. Pfizer, one of the primary manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines, said its antiviral COVID-19 pill was approved for at-home use. On the supply side, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of the OPEC+ producers group on Jan. 4. With the growing production issues in Russia and various others in the Atlantic Basin, it is likely that Middle Eastern producers could push for a continuation of monthly quota increases

Oil Futures Up, RBOB at 1-Month High After Baytown Explosion -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were trading near fresh one-month highs and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange at a two-week high late Thursday morning, with the RBOB contract leading the advance following an explosion and fire at a gasoline unit at ExxonMobil's Baytown refinery near Houston. Early reports indicate the gasoline unit was closed Wednesday to investigate a leak ahead of the overnight incident at the 584,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery, the country's second largest. Four people were reported injured. The market was taking the news in stride with January RBOB futures initially rallying overnight to a $2.2089 gallon four-week high on the spot continuous chart before paring the advance, trading up 2.1 cents near $2.1890 gallon late morning. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported a 5.533 million barrel (bbl) increase in nationwide gasoline stocks for the week ended Dec. 17, lifting inventory to 224.118 million bpd, the highest stock level since the end of the third quarter. NYMEX January ULSD futures, which settled above resistance at the $2.2780 50% retracement point for the fourth quarter downtrend for the first time in December on Wednesday, added to gains early Thursday, up about 1 cents at $2.3178 gallon after trading at a fresh $2.3345 gallon four-week high on the spot continuous chart. EIA reported a modest 396,000 bbl build in distillate inventories for the week ended Dec. 17, with stocks at 124.154 million bbl, 7.1 million bbl or 5.4% below the three-year average. February West Texas Intermediate on NYMEX was up modestly near $73 bbl, having traded earlier in the session at a fresh four-week spot high at $73.33 bbl, continuing to hold below the $73.72 trendline for the uptrend from the November 2020. EIA on Wednesday reported a steep 4.715 million bbl draw in commercial crude inventory in the United States for the week ended Dec. 17, lowering the stock level to a 423.571 million bbl 11-week low, while 37.2 million bbl or 8.1% below the three-year average. February Brent futures were also up modestly, trading at $75.60 bbl and near a $75.79 fresh two-week high. A firmer U.S. dollar, trading 96.155 in index trading, is also limiting the upside for WTI futures. Dollar strength follows macroeconomic news Thursday morning that was largely supportive for the U.S. economy. The Census Bureau this morning reported durable goods orders surged 2.5% in November that was above market expectations for a 1.5% increase, while October's initial reading of a 0.5% decline was revised up to a modest 0.1% gain. Durable goods orders have now increased in six of the last seven months.

Oil prices stable as positive COVID news balances curbs - Oil prices were broadly stable on Thursday as signs that the worst effects of the Omicron variant might be more containable than previously feared were countered by new COVID-19 restrictions amid surging infections. Brent crude futures advanced 2.07%, or $1.56, to $76.85 per barrel, after a 1.8% gain in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled $1.03, or 1.4%, higher at $73.79 a barrel after jumping 2.3% in the previous session. "Oil's direction is entirely reliant on Omicron headlines, and as long as they stay more contagious but less virulent, oil's rally is likely to continue, with intra-day ranges exacerbated by thin liquidity," said OANDA market analyst Jeffrey Halley. Both contracts are set for a third straight day of gains. So far this year, Brent has risen around 46% and WTI 50%. The big gains on Wednesday were partly spurred by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. The United States authorized Pfizer Inc's antiviral COVID-19 pill for people aged 12 and older, the first oral and at-home treatment as well as a new tool against the fast-spreading Omicron variant. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca said a three-dose course of its COVID-19 vaccine was effective against Omicron, citing data from an Oxford University lab study. On the flip side, governments reimposed a range of restrictions to slow the spread of Omicron. The Chinese city of Xian on Wednesday ordered its 13 million residents to stay home, while Scotland imposed gathering limits from Dec. 26 for up to three weeks, and two Australian states reimposed mask mandates. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and allies have left the door open to reviewing their plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in January.

Oil up 4% on Week in Volatile, Omicron-Impacted Trade - Oil prices jumped more than 4% on the week, rebounding from last week’s slump, as energy markets were caught in a wave of year-end volatility worsened by Covid’s Omicron variant. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled Thursday's trade up $1.03, or 1.4%, at $73.79 per barrel. That put WTI up 4.1% for the week, versus a 1.1% decline last week and a 8.2% gain the week before that. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up $1.56, or 2.1%, at $76.85 a barrel. For the week, Brent showed a gain of 4.5%, just like WTI, and following a pattern of volatility similar to the U.S. crude benchmark in previous weeks. Thursday is the last trading day of this week, with U.S. markets closed on Friday in observation of Saturday’s Christmas holiday. Oil prices were down about 6% between Friday and Monday combined as markets reacted to news of the Omicron becoming the dominant strain of the coronavirus in most parts of the world, including the United States. Major U.S. cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, announced mass cutbacks in social activity earlier this week and introduced various new restrictions to deal with the Covid variant. President Joe Biden had also warned that Americans who do not get vaccinated for the virus faced “a winter of severe illness and death”. Those cautions aside, a general spike in Covid infections, hospitalizations — and, in some countries, even deaths — had triggered broad risk aversion. Much of the bearish mood, however, dissipated in the past 48 hours as evidence increasingly showed the Omicron to be a less lethal form of Covid despite its fast-spreading ability. The US Food and Drug Administration’s emergency authorization on Thursday for Pfizer’s Paxlovid pill — the world’s first for Covid — also boosted risk appetite.

Australian governments double down on “reopening” as COVID-19 cases surge --As COVID-19 infections mount and the Omicron variant spreads across the country, Australian governments continue to insist that the reopening drive must continue. They are also defying growing statements of alarm, and in some cases, outright opposition, by doctors and public health experts, including Sydney immunologist Dr Dan Suan. An emergency “National Cabinet” meeting of the federal, state and territory government leaders has been called for tomorrow in response to the rise of Omicron, which now accounts for at least 40 percent of samples tested in Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, however, was quick to stress that this would be an “informal” meeting and lockdowns were not on the agenda. Morrison, who heads the Liberal-National Coalition, said this morning, “we’re not going back to lockdowns, we’re not going back to shutting down people’s lives—we’re going forward to live with this virus with common sense and responsibility.” New South Wales (NSW), the most populous state, posted a record-high COVID-19 infection number today, with 3,057 new cases, a 22 percent increase over yesterday’s total. This is the sixth-straight day on which the state has reported a daily figure higher than any before December. The state has recorded a total of 15,825 cases in the past seven days. While state Liberal-National Premier Dominic Perrottet maintained that hospitalisation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission are the “key metrics” to watch, not infections, the inevitable relationship between these figures is beginning to emerge. According to the official tally, 284 people are hospitalised with COVID, 116 more than a week ago. New ICU admissions in the past two days have been 11, for a total of 39. Two deaths were reported this morning, making a total of five over the past week. In fact, the hospitalisation numbers hide the reality. According to NSW Health’s Critical Intelligence Unit, 3,342 COVID-19 patients were being cared for “outside of a hospital setting” on December 13, an increase of almost 1,000 over the previous week. More recent figures have not been released. This number has almost certainly skyrocketed over the past week. As infections, severe illness and deaths mount, Perrottet demands that NSW residents “need to learn to live alongside” the virus. Writing in the Daily Telegraph yesterday, the premier claimed: “Vaccination offers a level of protection that, previously, we could only get by staying home. The best advice indicates that a booster dose will provide even better protection, so we should all go and get that too, as soon as we’re eligible.”

Attacks on Brazilian scientists grow amid COVID-19 pandemic - The gigantic international scientific effort to understand the multiple aspects of the novel coronavirus, produce unprecedented vaccines in record time and understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as educate and warn the public about the dangers it poses, has clashed with the profit interests of the ruling elite in all countries. Consequently, scientists have been a frequent target of violent attacks, often instigated directly by government leaders, for exposing the refusal of the ruling elite to implement a science-based policy against the pandemic. In early October, the prestigious scientific journal Nature published a report with the results of a survey showing that, out of the 321 scientists who have conducted media interviews and expressed themselves on social media about the pandemic, 15 percent have received “death threats.” The survey also showed that almost 60 percent of the scientists interviewed have suffered “attacks on their credibility” and more than 40 percent of them have suffered “emotional or psychological stress.” These attacks have been particularly prevalent in countries where a more open policy of herd immunity has been implemented and promoted, as in the case of Brazil, ruled by fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro. The persecution of Brazilian scientists has been brought to the fore in the months of November and December by a series of resignations and protests at the country’s leading science and education agencies against what the head of the Brazilian Science Academy, Luiz Davidovich, called a “political purge akin to those of 20th century authoritarian regimes.” Among those targeted by the government was Marcus Lacerda, who had led a study in early 2020, later used by the US National Institutes of Health, to advise against the use of hydroxychloroquine—still promoted by Bolsonaro—for the treatment of COVID-19. Lacerda was stripped of his National Scientific Merit Order medal, prompting 21 scientists selected to receive the honor on November 4 to refuse them. This week, after the country’s drug agency Anvisa cleared the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for children from 5 to 11, Bolsonaro said he would reveal “extra-officially” the names of those who voted on the decision, for “the people to make their judgment on them”, that is, for his anti-vaccine far-right base to commit violent acts against them. Anvisa directors, including the Bolsonaro-appointed head, Rear Admiral Antonio Barra Torres, have received a number of death threats in case vaccine was cleared for infants. Among those suffering the most barbaric persecutions is Lucas Ferrante, a doctoral student who led the main studies on the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Amazonas. After almost two years of violence and threats, Ferrante is treating a very rare cancer connected to poisoning by heavy metals found in his residence’s water pipes bearing all the signs of intentional poisoning.

Inflation soars to record level as UK wages stagnate - Rampant inflation is plunging millions of British workers into a cost of living crisis, with incomes already slashed by more than a decade of austerity and the impact of the COVID pandemic. Inflation is at its highest level in the UK since 2011. In the 12 months to November the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate of inflation has surged by 5.1 percent, up from 4.2 percent the month before. The main factor in the CPI surge is the rocketing of the price of petrol, which reached a new record of 145.8p a litre compared with 112.6p the previous year. According to the Official for National Statistics (ONS), the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation has soared even higher. It rose to 7.1 percent last month, up from 6 percent in October and its highest level in more than 30 years. RPI is considered a more accurate measure of inflation as it includes factors such as mortgage payments. Factors including higher factory prices and a tightening labour market mean that inflation is set to continue rising into 2022 and into 2023. Last week the Joseph Rowntree Foundation predicted that hundreds of thousands more people will be thrust into “deep poverty” by the inflation surge. It’s assessment by Katie Schmuecker notes, “Times are hard, food is expensive now… But if you didn’t have enough to begin with, and you’re already struggling to afford the essentials, there comes a point where you can snip no further. Then the rising price of essentials simply pulls more people deeper into poverty…”

European Firms Warn "Unbearably High Energy Costs" May Spark Wave Of Production Shutdowns --Years of mindless green energy policies across the European continent are about to unleash an economic crisis. Energy-intensive companies are paying "unbearably high energy prices" that may force them to shutter operations. Eleven European associations (from steel to fertilizers to cement to paper mills) published a press release Wednesday that warned the energy crisis that plagues the continent has worsened over the few months and accelerated in the last several days as European natural gas hit a record high on Tuesday. "The main reasons for this situation are the financial market speculation from financial players including hedge funds and commodity trading houses, the imbalances in the gas market, seasonally decreased renewable energy production, reduced nuclear energy production, coal mine closures, and increased carbon costs passed on in electricity prices," the eleven associations said in a press release. Europe's energy crisis has snowballed into what could be an economic downturn. The groups warned, "numerous industrial energy consumers" have "to curtail and/or temporarily close plants" because "energy prices have increased 4 to 5 times" and made the cost of operating uneconomical."The ongoing situation has severely impacted the competitiveness and profitability of energy-intensive sectors' European operations as they are most exposed to dramatic price spikes," the groups continued. They said, "a prolonged period of unbearably high energy prices could lead to severe losses, relocation of European companies and an increase of carbon leakage." The groups called on European leaders to combat the energy crisis and "quickly exploit the full potential of the toolbox presented by the European Commission in October. Furthermore, urgent actions are necessary at EU level to enable affected companies to overcome this situation." To sum up, the failure of political leaders to even remotely allow energy supplies to reach such low levels is stunning. Also, soaring natural gas prices is not a failure of the fossil fuel industry, but the total failure of politicians who crushed oil, gas, and coal power plants to guarantee the green transition would be easy. Things are going from bad to worse as the winter in the Northern Hemisphere gets underway.

EU Sets 9-Month Expiration Date For Vaccine Passports - COVID case numbers are already starting to decline in southern Africa, seen as the epicenter of the omicron explosion, but that hasn't stopped the EU from further tightening restrictions related to travel. Because according to Reuters, the European Commission on Tuesday agreed to new rules that will make the EU's COVID vaccine travel passport (what they call a "travel certificate") will be valid for nine months after the completion of the "primary vaccination schedule" - which right now only includes the first two doses. The decision, made by the bloc's governing commission, which has purview over issues related to intra-bloc travel, comes just as Germany's Robert Koch Institute, the primary source of public health policy, recommended on Tuesday that "maximum contact restrictions" should be imposed, starting immediately, to combat a looming tide of infections caused by this latest winter wave (to which the new omicron variant is now contributing). As for the new EU-wide travel rules, they will replace a non-binding recommendation the EU Commission put forward in November. Also, it's worth pointing out that the nine month timeline leaves the door open for the EU to require boosters, potentially as often as every six or nine months. Interestingly enough, Reuters also pointed out that travel measures restricting intra-bloc travel being imposed by a smattering of individual member states are helping to undermine the authority of the EU Commission. But the pass does leave room for governments to impose restrictions on indoor events and activities within their respective territories. Still, once the new rule is in place, EU member states will in theory be obliged to let fully vaccinated travelers with a valid pass access their territory. Though they still could - as an exception justified by a deteriorating situation - impose further requirements, such as negative tests or quarantines, as long as they are proportionate.

Portugal, Spain face new restrictions despite COVID vaccine success - Despite vaccination rates that make other governments envious, Portugal and Spain are facing the hard truth that, with the new omicron variant running rampant, these winter holidays won’t be a time of unrestrained joy. Portugal on Tuesday announced a slew of new restrictions over Christmas and the New Year, making working from home mandatory and shutting discotheques and bars beginning Saturday night. Also, a negative test result must be shown to enter Portuguese cinemas, theaters, sports events, weddings and baptisms until at least Jan. 9. Portugal will impose exceptional measures on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as well as New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, including having a negative test result to enter restaurants and public celebrations. And on New Year’s Eve, no more than 10 people can gather in the street, and drinking alcohol outdoors will be prohibited. That is happening despite almost 87% of Portugal’s population being fully vaccinated, due to the omicron variant, which is racing across Europe. Spain, too, had hoped for a relaxed festive Christmas, since 80% of its population of 47 million were vaccinated — including 90% of those over 12 — and face masks are widely used. But the incredibly fast spread of the omicron variant is starting to put pressure on Spanish hospitals, even though experts agree that being vaccinated still greatly reduces the risk of falling seriously ill. Catalonia, home to the northeastern city of Barcelona, is prepared to become the first Spanish region to reinstate serious limitations and put a damper on the holiday cheer. One in four of everyone hospitalized in Spain with COVID-19 is in Catalonia. “We had all hoped to spend these Christmas holidays with our family and loved ones, but unfortunately we are not in that situation,” Catalan regional president Pere Aragonès said Tuesday. “You don’t have to look at the numbers. All of us know people who have been infected.” Catalan health authorities have asked the courts to authorize a battery of measures including a new nightly curfew from 1-6 a.m., a limit of 10 people per social gathering, the closure of nightclubs, and capping restaurants at 50% of indoor seating and stores, gyms and theaters at 70% capacity. If approved, the rules would take effect on Christmas Eve and last for 15 days, wiping out most New Year’s parties.

Germany sees massive job cuts in all sectors -The coronavirus pandemic is being ruthlessly exploited by German companies to increase profits at the expense of their workforces. Workers are being blackmailed into accepting severe wage cuts and job losses with the threat of the closure of most, or even the entire company. The trade unions and their works councils stand fully behind the corporations and enforce company policy. At the beginning of the year, for example, the management of the Meyer Werft shipyard in Papenburg announced it would lay off almost half of the yard’s 3,900 workers. Then, this summer, the company gave workers the alternative of agreeing to 660 job cuts and 200 hours of unpaid overtime per year, or lose 1,000 jobs. More than half of the workforce refused to vote on this choice between two evils. The works council then negotiated the dismissal of 350 workers at Meyer Werft and another 100 workers at its subsidiary, EMS Maritime Services. “We managed to reduce the numbers,” declared works council leader Nico Bloem at a works meeting in the summer, speaking of an “acceptable compromise.” It has now emerged that Meyer Werft will be paid out millions in coronavirus aid funding, and shipyard workers are outraged. The main union, IG Metall and the company works council are trying to cover up their own role in maintaining control over the workforce by organising toothless protests, such as the one held in front of the Lower Saxony parliament in the state capital Hanover over a fortnight ago. Another example of the ruthless stance adopted by big concerns is the recent action by Baur Versand, an Otto Group company. In April, the mail order company Otto announced it had increased its turnover by 30 percent in 2020. Otto is one of the country’s big coronavirus winners. At the same time, the Otto management announced it planned to cut 400 full-time jobs in order to save 50 million euros annually. Part of these cuts now rest with Baur Versand, which is giving 96 long-time employees at various call centres, who still retain older and better-paid pay scales, the choice of accepting the termination of their contracts with little compensation; otherwise call centres with a total of 500 employees would be closed down completely. Employing these methods of open blackmail, many tens of thousands of jobs have been cut this year - usually with the support of the unions and their works councils. Part of this blackmail extends to contract bargaining undertaken since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. The unions have ensured that workers earn less in real terms than they did last year. The Verdi public service union recently agreed to a 14-month wage freeze in the public sector for workers in university clinics and state hospitals, teachers and nursery school staff—i.e., all those who have been on the front lines during the past year!

Germany to limit social contact as Omicron sweeps Europe -- Germany is to preserve Christmas but reimpose tighter rules on social contact before new year as the Omicron variant sweeps across Europe, sparking tougher measures from Sweden to Spain. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, met the country’s 16 state leaders on Tuesday to decide on new measures including a ban on gatherings of more than 10 vaccinated people. Children under 14 are expected to be exempt from the rules, which will not come into effect until 28 December. Unvaccinated people are already only allowed to meet a maximum of two people from outside their own household. The authorities have scrambled to speed up the country’s booster campaign. They are administering about 1m shots a day but remain dissatisfied with the relatively low proportion of people to have received their first and second doses, which stands at 70.3%. Rates of new infections and deaths have fallen over the past week, but health experts have repeatedly said this does not mean the situation is easing because figures for daily deaths and hospital admissions remain high. The Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases has called for “maximum contact restrictions”. It also recommends reducing travel to a minimum, accelerating the vaccination campaign and ensuring enough free coronavirus tests are available.

Austria Hiring People To "Hunt Down Vaccine Refusers" - The Austrian government is hiring people to “hunt down vaccine refusers,” according to a report published by Blick. The burden for enforcing the fines unjabbed Austrians will have to pay as part of their punishment will fall to their employers, necessitating a new army of ‘inspectors’ to ensure that process is running smoothly. The city of Linz, which is home to 200,000 inhabitants, has a relatively low vaccination rate of 63 per cent. In response, “Linz now wants to hire people who are supposed to hunt down vaccine refusers,” reports Swiss news outlet Blick. The role of the inspectors will be to check on “whether those who do not get vaccinated really pay for it.” The vaccine refusenik hunters will receive a wage of 2774 euros, which will be paid 14 times a year, making an annual income of 38,863 euros. Nice work if you can get it. “The job includes, among other things, the creation of penal orders as well as the processing of appeals,” according to the report, adding that workers need to be “resilient” and willing to work a lot of overtime. The jobs are only open to Austrian citizens, all of whom will either have to be vaccinated against or fully recovered from COVID.

The Criminalization Of Preppers In Turkey: Will Your Country Be Next? --History has shown us that collectivism detests the individual. The man who can exist independent of the system, who thinks for himself, who is not easily swayed, and who has values rooted in absolute truth which he refuses to give up – this is the enemy of collectivism. But if we take a closer look at one aspect of the individual – his ability to exist independent of the system – is it not clear this is an end goal of prepping? Is that not what a prepper strives for – the ability to exist independent of the world around them so that disaster does not affect them in the way that it affects others? It is, and this is why collectivism criminalizes preppers over and over again. We’ve seen it before and we’re seeing it right now, most notably in Turkey. Turkey is cooked, and we all know it. For those who keep a fairly accurate pulse of world events, you know that the fiat currency of Turkey – the lira – is collapsing. As of this year the lira has lost approximately 40% of its value, and from all appearances, it shows no signs of stopping its downward spiral anytime soon.Inflation is rapidly leading to hyperinflation within Turkey and the Turkish citizens have recognized this. People began attempting to step away from the lira and delving into cryptocurrency in an attempt to protect themselves.And then the Turkish government made crypto illegal as a form of payment on April 30, 2021. This was done to prevent “irreparable damage.” What’s ironic about this is that the Turks said this was because cryptocurrencies were “neither subject to any regulation and supervision mechanisms nor a central regulatory authority.” [source] That’s a fun train of logic from the people that are in the process of destroying their own currency.