Fed to stick to super-easy policy amid economic 'lull' (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve has no plans to dial back its super-easy policy even as the incoming Biden administration lobbies for a new and massive round of stimulus that sets the economy up for faster growth once vaccines are fully rolled out. Boston Fed Bank President Eric Rosengren on Friday was the latest to join the chorus at the U.S. central bank calling for continued support for the economy, saying on Friday he welcomes President-elect Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package. “It is a big package but I think it’s appropriate,” Rosengren told CNBC in an interview. “The economy is in a lull right now,” he said, citing a decline in jobs in December and a still-high unemployment rate of 6.7%. “The mix that we have actually on fiscal and monetary policy is appropriate.” Rosengren’s comments come after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday and other policymakers earlier in the week pushed back after a couple of their colleagues expressed optimism for sharp economic growth in the second half of the year and signaled they would consider tapering the Fed’s asset purchase program in response. “Now is not the time to be talking about exit,” Powell said. “I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Wednesday. Both noted the economy is still far from the Fed’s goals of full employment and 2% inflation. Analysts are penciling in faster economic growth now that vaccines are rolling out and with a Congress now controlled by Democrats more open to big government spending than Republicans typically are. But vaccine rollout has been uneven and slow, with only about 3% of the U.S. population receiving a first of two needed doses so far.
Fed’s Beige Book shows modest U.S. recovery as job growth slows - U.S. economic activity increased modestly at the end of 2020 while hiring slowed amid resurgent infections and new restrictions, even as vaccinations got underway, the Federal Reserve said. “Some districts noted declines in retail sales and demand for leisure and hospitality services, largely owing to the recent surge in Covid-19 cases and stricter containment measures,” according to the Beige Book based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through Jan. 4. “Although the prospect of Covid-19 vaccines has bolstered business optimism for 2021 growth, this has been tempered by concern over the recent virus resurgence and the implications for near-term business conditions,” the Fed said in the survey, released Wednesday in Washington. New coronavirus infections surged at the end of 2020 and into the new year. Coupled with the start of winter, people engaged in less activity. The report showed regional differences in economic performance, with some reporting an increase in activity and others little change. Two districts saw declines. Consumer spending declined in the New York region, and labor-market weakness was concentrated in services amid rising infections, increased restrictions, and cold weather. Philadelphia saw virus-related work disruptions and curtailed holiday spending by consumers, while employment appeared to edge down. The Cleveland district’s economy lost some momentum as the pandemic curbed demand for goods and services and saw labor availability issues disrupt supplies. Respondents were encouraged about vaccines, but surging cases left them less optimistic about the near-term demand outlook than before. The San Francisco district, by far the largest economy among Fed regions, saw job cuts in tourism and food services in response to the recent virus surge and related restrictions, though demand for labor in the technology and health care industries remained solid. The report covers a period that saw the start of widespread vaccinations, but with just a tiny portion of the population inoculated so far, the impacts on the economy aren’t yet visible. Several Fed officials have said broad vaccination will boost the economy in the second half of the year. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan expects 5% growth in 2021, boosted by inoculations, and Boston’s Eric Rosengren said Wednesday that widespread vaccination could underpin a significant pickup in consumption. Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic has said distribution has started slowly and further delays would be a setback to the hoped-for strong recovery.
Jabs equal jobs? Fed sees possible economic boom if vaccine gets on track (Reuters) - One U.S. Federal Reserve official says there is now a “clearer focus” about the economy’s path forward and a horizon for a fuller recovery. Another says the pandemic’s “endgame” is here. A third predicts 2021 will prove “impressive.” After a catastrophic spell when economic conditions were so confounded by the coronavirus that the Fed stopped making projections altogether, U.S. central bankers now like what they see. Even as they concede the riots by supporters of President Donald Trump that shut down Congress last week and concerns about continued violence pose a risk, officials say the transition to a new administration on Jan. 20 and a likely accelerating vaccine rollout have left them optimistic. The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden has said it plans to speed vaccine distribution, and outgoing Trump administration officials may move as soon as today to recommend on its own that age limits be lowered and other rules be loosened so more people can get shots now. For the Fed, even though the country’s short term political and health risks seem great, they have focused on the more positive prospects of the medium term - with some even suggesting the strength of the ensuing recovery may even accelerate their plans to pull on some of the steps taken this year to battle the coronavirus recession [L1N2JM2XH]. Even those arguing policy will likely remain on hold point to consumers’ still-amply-stuffed war chests from last year’s federal relief efforts, including a $900 billion re-topping of aid approved just before year end. “We have a trillion (dollars) in excess savings. We have checks coming in the mailbox. There will be enough demand” from consumers to keep the recovery on track, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said last week in forecasting an “impressive” 2021. If 2020 was when shutdowns and disease took the economy to “new and unfamiliar places,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said, “the future has finally come into clearer focus,” with vaccines likely leading to a fuller reopening by midyear.
Q4 GDP Forecasts -- From Merrrill Lynch: We revise up 1Q 2021 GDP growth to 4.0% qoq saar from 1.0%, but take down 2Q to 5.0% from 7.0%, reflecting the earlier passage of stimulus in December. This leaves annual 2021 growth at 5.0% from 4.6% previously, with risks tilted to the upside if additional stimulus makes it through Washington in coming months. We continue to track 5.0% qoq saar for 4Q 2020 GDP. [Jan 15 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2020:Q4 and 6.2% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 15 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.4 percent on January 15, down from 8.7 percent on January 8. [Jan 15 estimate]
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of January 10th. The seven day average is down 59.0% from last year (41.0% of last year).The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through January 9, 2020. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Blue is 2020 and red is 2021. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 7th. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). This data is through January 2nd. Hotel occupancy is currently down 17.2% year-over-year. Seasonally we'd expect business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early this year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of January 1st, gasoline supplied was off about 14.8% (about 85.2% of the same week in 2019). Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through January 9th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 45% of the January level. It is at 34% in Chicago, and 53% in Houston - and mostly trending up over the last couple of week. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020. This data is through Friday, January 8th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Yields Surge As Stunned Traders Learn Biden To Propose Massive $2 Trillion Stimulus - Last week, Goldman sparked a buying frenzy in the market (and selling in treasuries) when the bank said it expects the Biden admin would unveil a "modest" $750 billion fiscal stimulus plan, including some $300 billion in "stimmy" checks to Americans.However, as bank after bank tried to upstage Goldman and threw around stimulus estimates as high as $1 trillion or even more, the market barely noticed when late this afternoon, incoming Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer reportedly "pressed" (in Bloomberg's words) Joe Biden to propose more than $1.3 trillion in spending for his initial round of Covid-19 relief. According to Bloomberg, "the two have discussed Biden’s plans ahead of the president-elect’s announcement on his economic-rebuilding proposals... Biden is set to speak at 7:15 p.m. Thursday to outline “his vaccination and economic rescue legislative package,” his transition team said in a statement." But if markets ignored the Schumer report, they sure as hell noticed the CNN report which hit just after 9pmET, which prompted traders to take a double take because apparently Schumer "pressed" Biden so hard to expand the next stimulus round, he literally squashed the president-elect, who is now "expected to unveil a major Covid-19 relief package on Thursday and his advisers have recently told allies in Congress to expect a price tag in the ballpark of $2 trillion,"CNN reported citing two people briefed on the deliberations. The Biden team is taking a "shoot for the moon" approach with the package, one lawmaker in close contact with them told CNN, though they added that the price tag could still change. The proposal, which is just shy of the Democrats' demand late last year when they sought a $2.2 trillion stimulus, only to agree on a $900 billion enacted last December, "will include sizable direct payments to American families, significant state and local funding - including for coronavirus vaccine distribution and other emergency spending measures - to help those struggling during the pandemic."
U.S. Budget Deficit Widened 61% in Quarter on Covid-19 Spending --The U.S. federal budget deficit continued to balloon at the end of last year on spending to cushion the pandemic’s economic fallout, with the incoming Biden administration preparing to deploy more government funds. The gap was $572.9 billion in the October-December period, a record for the fiscal year’s first quarter and up 61% from a year earlier, according to a Treasury Department report Wednesday. December’s $143.6 billion deficit, also a record for that month, compared with $13.3 billion during the same month in 2019. The figures underscore the extent of the government’s unprecedented financial support of the U.S. economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Spending is set to rise further on the $900 billion Covid-19 aid package approved last month, and President-elect Joe Biden plans to propose trillions of dollars in additional outlays. While policy makers and economists agree that last year’s stimulus was key to the recovery from the pandemic so far, the widening shortfall is likely to fuel talk among deficit hawks about future inflation risk and potential burdens for future generations. At the same time, economists and politicians are increasingly embracing the idea that the U.S. can carry much more debt than previously believed without negative effects such as too-high inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly downplayed near-term concerns about the deficit during the pandemic in urging Congress to enact fiscal stimulus. He said last month that while U.S. debt may appear to be historically high on the surface, it’s “actually not that high” based on measures such as real interest costs divided by gross domestic product. With the economy weakened, revenue in the quarter decreased 0.4% while spending rose 18.3% from a year ago, driven by unemployment benefits deployed to help millions of jobless Americans. Outlays on Medicare and Medicaid also increased. December’s figures reflect virtually none of the $900 billion Covid-19 stimulus package passed late in the month, Treasury officials said during a press briefing call Wednesday. Last month’s pandemic relief package means the budget deficit is set to exceed $2.3 trillion in fiscal 2021, the second-highest since World War II after the 2020 gap of $3.13 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
U.S. small businesses to get more cash as pandemic loan program re-opens (Reuters) - The U.S. government on Monday was set to re-open its signature small business pandemic aid program with $284 billion in new funds and revamped rules that aim to get cash to the most needy businesses while stamping out fraud and abuse. The Small Business Administration (SBA) announced on Friday that it would launch a third round of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) this week, starting with small community financial institutions on Monday, and larger lenders in coming days. By prioritizing smaller lenders, the SBA hopes to address criticism from lawmakers that minority and women-owned businesses did not get enough money during the first two PPP rounds last year compared with bigger businesses. Administration officials told reporters on Friday they expected the funds would be sufficient to meet demand. Under the program, lenders on behalf of the government distribute loans that can be forgiven provided the cash is spent on eligible costs, such as payroll and rent. To date, the PPP has distributed $525 billion through more than 5 million loans. Congress authorized the new funds last month as part of another pandemic stimulus package which also loosened PPP rules on who can get cash and what it can be spent on. Among the key changes, companies which took cash during the first two rounds will be allowed a second PPP loan provided they can show a 25% hit to their revenues. To address worries over fraud, the SBA is also introducing new due diligence checks.
Schumer Asks Biden to Seek More Than $1.3 Trillion in Relief - Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has pressed President-elect Joe Biden to propose more than $1.3 trillion in spending for his initial round of Covid-19 relief, according to a person familiar with the matter. The two have discussed Biden’s plans ahead of the president-elect’s announcement on Thursday about his economic-rebuilding proposals, the person said, asking not to be named as the talks were private. Aides have been mulling the price tag of the immediate assistance package that the Democrats will seek after the administration takes office Jan. 20. Democrats last fall sought a $2.2 trillion Covid-19 bill -- $1.3 trillion more than the $900 billion measure enacted in late December. Biden will seek a deal with Republicans on the next round of Covid-19 relief, rather than attempting to ram a package through without their support, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The new president could pass some stimulus items using a special budget tool with just the votes of the 50 Democrats and independents in the chamber, but prefers to try a bipartisan approach first. Another person familiar with the discussions said Wednesday that the thinking is that at least 10 Republican senators can be found to back the initiative to be unveiled Thursday -- speeding its passage in a chamber that will have a 50-50 partisan split. The relief plan won’t include any surprises, and will be composed of elements that Democrats have been pressing for weeks in the wake of the $900 billion bill enacted last month, that person said. A Biden transition spokesperson declined to comment on the plans. Funding for vaccines, aid to state and local governments, boosting direct payments to $2,000 from the $600 approved last month and further unemployment-insurance support will be key components, the person said.
Stimulus package: Here's what's in Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan – CNN --Bigger stimulus checks. More aid for the unemployed, the hungry and those facingeviction. Additional support for small businesses, states and local governments. Increased funding for vaccinations and testing. These are key parts of a $1.9 trillion proposal that President-elect Joe Biden unveiled Thursday evening. Billed as the American Rescue Plan, the package augments many of the measures in Congress' historic $3 trillion coronavirus relief bill from March and in the $900 billion legislation from December, which was scaled back to garner support from Senate Republicans. Now that Democrats control both chambers and the White House, Biden is pushing for the big steps he says are needed to address immediate needs and control the coronavirus pandemic. He also plans to lay out an economic recovery plan in coming weeks that aims to create jobs and combat the climate crisis, among other measures. The plan calls for sending another $1,400 per person to eligible recipients. This money would be in addition to the $600 payments that were approved by Congress in December and sent out earlier this month -- for a total of $2,000. The new payments would go to adult dependents that were left out of the earlier rounds, like some children over the age of 17. It would also include households with mixed immigration status, after the first round of $1,200 checks left out the spouses of undocumented immigrants who do not have Social Security Numbers. Biden would increase the federal boost the jobless receive to $400 a week, from the $300 weekly enhancement contained in Congress' relief package from December. He would also extend the payments, along with two key pandemic unemployment programs, through September. This applies to those in the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program who have exhausted their regular state jobless payments and in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which provides benefits to the self-employed, independent contractors, gig workers and certain people affected by the pandemic. Lawmakers only provided an additional 11 weeks of support in the December package, which will last until March. The plan would provide $25 billion in rental assistance for low- and moderate-income households who have lost jobs during the pandemic. That's in addition to the $25 billion lawmakers provided in December. Another $5 billion would be set aside to help struggling renters to pay their utility bills. Biden is also calling for $5 billion to help states and localities assist those at risk of experiencing homelessness. The plan would extend the federal eviction moratorium, set to expire at the end of January, to September 30, as well as allow people with federally-guaranteed mortgages to apply for forbearance until September 30. Biden would extend the 15% increase in food stamp benefits through September, instead of having it expire in June. He would invest another $3 billion to help women, infants and children secure food, and give US territories $1 billion in nutrition assistance. And he would partner with restaurants to provide food to needy Americans and jobs to laid-off restaurant workers.
Sanders to wield gavel as gatekeeper for key Biden proposals - The Democratic wins in Georgia have elevated Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to a key legislative role in the new Congress. President-elect Joe Biden’s former primary rival is now set to become chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, where he will wield influence over some of the biggest legislative priorities under the Democratic majority.The panel sets the terms for budget reconciliation, a procedure that allows senators to approve certain tax and spending bills with a simple majority and sidestep the 60-vote threshold needed for most legislation. With a 50-50 split that will often require tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, Democrats are likely to find themselves relying on reconciliation to advance the parts of their legislative agenda most likely to draw full GOP opposition, from more COVID-19 relief, including another round of stimulus checks, to infrastructure, health and climate legislation. As Budget chair, Sanders will have the opportunity to shape each reconciliation bill. He addressed that new role on Tuesday. "In the past, Republicans used budget reconciliation to pass massive tax breaks for the rich and large corporations with a simple majority vote," Sanders tweeted. "As the incoming Chairman of the Budget Committee, I will fight to use the same process to boldly address the needs of working families." Fellow progressives are relishing his new power. “Everybody on the Democratic side wins if we pass the most maximalist proposals that all 50 Democrats can agree on. What Bernie Sanders being Budget chair means is that there will be at least one strong advocate in the room for the maximalist equation,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
Biden Appoints Mideast Advisor Who Resigned Over Trump Syria Withdrawal - On Friday, Joe Biden announced the nomination of Brett McGurk, an outspoken proponent of the US presence in Syria, to serve as the Middle East coordinator on the National Security Council.McGurk served as the US envoy to the international anti-ISIS coalition under both President Obama and President Trump from 2015 to 2018. In December 2018, McGurk resigned after President Trump announced his plan to withdraw from Syria.In January 2019, McGurk penned an op-ed for The Washington Post where he slammed Trump’s Syria policy and warned the US withdrawal would leave a vacuum for ISIS, Iran, and Russia. In the piece, McGurk said since there will be fewer US troops in Syria, Washington’s goals should be narrowed down to supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and supporting Israel’s bombing campaign in Syria against “Iranian threats.”While President Trump never fully withdrew Syria, he did drawdown the presence. In 2018 there were approximately 2,000 US troops in the country. Now there are an estimated 600 US soldiers in Syria, although it’s tough to know the real number. The former US envoy to Syria, Jim Jeffrey, who resigned in November, admitted in an interview that he was “always playing shell games” to hide the real number of US troops in Syria.McGurk is also a staunch critic of Turkey’s role in Syria, and Turkey is no fan of him. The Turks see McGurk as the mastermind behind arming Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Specifically, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), who lead the SDF and are affiliated with the PKK, a group Ankara sees as a terrorist organization.
Will the Senate Confirm Coup Plotter Victoria Nuland? - Medea Benjamin - Who is Victoria Nuland? Most Americans have never heard of her because the U.S. corporate media’s foreign policy coverage is a wasteland. Most Americans have no idea that President-elect Biden’s pick for Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs is stuck in the quicksand of 1950s U.S.-Russia Cold War politics and dreams of continued NATO expansion, an arms race on steroids and further encirclement of Russia. Nor do they know that from 2003-2005, during the hostile U.S. military occupation of Iraq, Nuland was a foreign policy advisor to Dick Cheney, the Darth Vader of the Bush administration. You can bet, however, that the people of Ukraine have heard of neocon Nuland. Many have even heard the leaked four-minute audio of her saying “Fuck the EU” during a 2014 phone call with the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt. During the infamous call on which Nuland and Pyatt plotted to replace the elected Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych, Nuland expressed her not-so-diplomatic disgust with the European Union for grooming former heavyweight boxer and austerity champ Vitali Klitschko instead of U.S. puppet and NATO booklicker Artseniy Yatseniuk to replace Russia-friendly Yanukovych. The “Fuck the EU” call went viral, as an embarrassed State Department, never denying the call’s authenticity, blamed the Russians for tapping the phone, much as the NSA has tapped the phones of European allies. Despite outrage from German Chancellor Angela Markel, no one fired Nuland, but her potty mouth upstaged the more serious story: the U.S. plot to overthrow Ukraine’s elected government and America’s responsibility for a civil war that has killed at least 13,000 people and left Ukraine the poorest country in Europe. In the process, Nuland, her husband Robert Kagan, the co-founder of The Project for a New American Century, and their neocon cronies succeeded in sending U.S.-Russian relations into a dangerous downward spiral from which they have yet to recover. Nuland accomplished this from a relatively junior position as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. How much more trouble could she stir up as the #3 official at Biden’s State Department? We’ll find out soon enough, if the Senate confirms her nomination.
Iraq Slams US Sanctions Against Key Militia Leader --Over the weekend, the US Treasury Department imposed a new round of sanctions against Faleh Fayyadh, the head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a government umbrella of Shi’ite militia organizations. Fayyadh is also the leader of the Ataa Movement.The US has long vilified the PMF, and killed a previous leader in a January airstrike against the Baghdad airport last year. The Iraqi government isn’t accepting these new sanctions well, however, condemning them as unacceptable interference in internal affairs.The Foreign Ministry said they were surprised by the US move, and President Salih warned that nations mustn’t interfere, and should respect Iraqi sovereignty. All agreed this was unacceptable. In practice, the US has treated the PMF as an Iranian proxy, and sanctions its figures as though they are targeting Iranians. In reality, however, the PMF is part of the Iraqi government and its military.This is hardly the first time the US has sanctioned a PMF figure, but the timing is particularly ill-considered, coming around the anniversary of last January’s assassination of a PMF chief and Iran’s General Soleimani. Many resent that US action, and these sanctions underscore that US policy remains roughly the same, and remains a problem.
US brands Yemen’s Houthi rebels “terrorists,” paving way for mass starvation - Waving aside warnings by humanitarian organizations that his action threatens mass starvation in Yemen, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday that Washington will designate the Houthi rebels, who govern territory containing 70 percent of the Yemeni population, as a “foreign terrorist organization.” This cynical and potentially catastrophic measure is being taken by the ostensibly “lame-duck” secretary of state as part of an unrelenting “maximum pressure” campaign of punishing economic sanctions and continuous military provocations against Iran. Washington has sought to portray the Houthi movement, which has existed and ruled over parts of Yemen for generations, as a puppet of Tehran, something the Houthis have continuously denied. Claims of substantial amounts of Iranian aid for the Houthis in the nearly five-year-old war launched against them by Saudi Arabia have never been proven. As for “terrorism,” the statement refers vaguely to Houthi “cross-border attacks threatening civilian populations, infrastructure and commercial shipping.” Pompeo also insisted that one “need not look further” than a December 30 attack launched against the airport in the southern port city of Aden that killed 27 people. The attack, which took place as a Saudi puppet “unity government” landed at the airport, was blamed by Riyadh and Washington on the Houthis, who denied they were responsible. Afterwards, Saudi forces ordered the arrest in connection with the attack of a senior leader of the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which, with backing from the United Arab Emirates, repeatedly clashed with Saudi puppet forces over the past two years. Washington’s branding of the Houthis as terrorists for “cross border attack” and inflicting civilian casualties is the height of hypocrisy given the billions of dollars’ worth of weapons along with logistical aid the US has provided Saudi Arabia as it has waged an unrelenting campaign of bombings that has killed an estimated 100,000 people, most of them civilians. With basic infrastructure, hospitals and food production deliberately targeted, the war has unleashed the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. More have starved to death—including 75,000 children under the age of five—than have died from military violence, while at least half the population is facing famine, and the worst cholera epidemic in modern history has infected 1.2 million. On top of this, COVID-19 has begun to spread uncontrollably across Yemen. For Washington, all of these civilian victims are mere collateral damage in US imperialism’s drive to exert uncontested hegemony over the oil-rich Middle East.
Iran Will Expel UN Inspectors If US Sanctions Aren’t Lifted -- Iranian MP Ahmad Amiribadi Farahani announced over the weekend that if the US does not lift sanctions against Iran, as required under the P5+1 nuclear deal, by February 21, the Iranian parliament is mandating the expulsion of all IAEA inspectors from the country, and will suspend the Additional Protocol.This comes on the approach of president-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, and with some expectations he’d be looking to engage Iran diplomatically, the ultimatum may be an effort to force Biden to engage early, and make a deal quickly.The US isn’t a party to the P5+1 deal at this point, but there’s been a lot of hope Biden would want to return. There has been no public announcement, and Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) claimed in October Biden would hold out for a tougher deal.Since this comment is coming from an MP and making reference to parliament’s bill to expand the nuclear program, it’s not clear this is being sent on behalf of the Rouhani government, or if it is just hardliners trying to stir things up.Rouhani is more diplomacy-minded than the hardliners, and has resisted parliament’s calls to escalate the civilian nuclear program. Nothing that’s been done has anything to do with a military dimension to the nuclear program, and despite Israeli spin, the inspectors can continue to verify nothing is being diverted outside of civilian use. Expelling the inspectors would be a huge escalation, even though it too would be reversible, and would certainly be presented by US hawks and their supporters as a provocation worth starting a war over. If Biden hasn’t made a deal by then and this expulsion happens, it could put major pressure on him to react negatively, and move away from the diplomatic track. That may be what the hardliners intend, as many of them openly scorn the idea of diplomacy in the first place.
China condemns US for lifting restrictions on interactions with Taiwan -Chinese officials on Monday blasted the State Department for ending restrictions on relations with Taiwan, which Beijing considers Chinese territory. “The Chinese people’s resolve to defend our sovereignty and territorial integrity is unshakable and we will not permit any person or force to stop the process of China’s reunification,” Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, told reporters Monday, according to Reuters. Zhao went on to say that “any actions which harm China’s core interests will be met with a firm counterattack and will not succeed.” While the U.S. has no official relations with Taiwan, arms sales to the island have increased under the Trump administration. Under the changes announced by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Taiwanese officials will be free to meet at official locations such as the White House or State Department offices. “Taiwan-U.S. relations have been elevated to a global partnership,” Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told reporters, according to Reuters. “The foreign ministry will not let our guard down and hopes to continue to boost the development of Taiwan-U.S. ties.” Pompeo lifting restrictions on US-Taiwan contacts US, Australia, UK, Canada condemn mass arrests in Hong Kong U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft is scheduled to travel to Taipei for a three-day visit this week. Wu and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen are set to meet with Craft during the visit, according to Wu. China has denounced the meeting, maintaining that only Chinese officials speak for Taiwan to international diplomats. Although the Trump administration has vocally backed Taiwan, some figures in Taiwanese politics have expressed concerns the U.S. overtures are only meant to spite China rather than strengthen Taiwan. “Let’s not become a bargaining chip in the game between the United States and mainland China,” opposition party chairman Johnny Chiang said Sunday, according to Reuters. Chiang added that the Washington's long-term commitment would become clear if the incoming Biden administration leaves the recent changes to U.S.-Taiwan relations in place.
U.S. Bans All Xinjiang Cotton Products, Tomatoes Over Forced Labor --The U.S. will bar entry of all cotton products and tomatoes from China’s Xinjiang region, where it says Beijing is oppressing Muslim-minority Uighurs. The move is the latest in a series of actions where the U.S. is raising pressure on China over some companies’ alleged ill-treatment of workers. The U.S. says the Chinese government has detained more than 1 million Uighurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in “re-education” internment camps, allegations that the Foreign Ministry in Beijing denies. “Forced labor is a form of modern slavery,” Acting Department of Homeland Security Deputy Secretary Kenneth Cuccinelli said on a call with reporters Wednesday. “‘Made in China’ doesn’t just indicate country of origin -- it’s a warning label.” The goods to be detained at U.S. ports of entry in the so-called withhold-release order, or WRO, following the CBP investigation include everyday consumer products such as apparel, textiles, tomato seeds, canned tomatoes, and tomato sauce, Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan said. The WRO will also apply to products manufactured in other countries that use cotton and tomatoes from Xinjiang, he said. In a statement, the American Apparel & Footwear Association, the National Retail Federation, Retail Industry Leaders Association and U.S. Fashion Industry Association asked the CBP to share the evidence and thresholds used to arrive at its findings. They also requested that the agency “share enforcement actions so that industry can further inform their due diligence and amplify and expand CBP’s enforcement efforts.”
US Targets CNOOC in Late Anti-China Push --- The Trump administration blacklisted Chinese smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi Corp. for alleged military links along with the country’s third-biggest oil company over its drilling in the South China Sea, part of a final push to ratchet up pressure on Beijing before President-elect Joe Biden takes office. Xiaomi was one of nine firms added to the Defense Department’s list of Chinese military companies, a move that will restrict U.S. investments in its securities. Other firms include state-owned planemaker Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd., or Comac, which is central to China’s goal of creating a narrow-body plane that can compete with Boeing Co. and Airbus SE. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department’s move against China National Offshore Oil Corp., the nation’s main deepwater explorer, denies it access to U.S. technologies without specific permission. It follows a December decision to blacklist more than 60 other Chinese companies. “This measure by the Trump administration once again demonstrates to the public, to the international community, what is unilateralism, double standards and bullying,” China Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a briefing in Beijing on Friday. “The Chinese side will take necessary measures to ensure the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies, and we will stand by our companies, to protect, to uphold their rights and interests in accordance with law.” Spokespeople for Xiaomi, Cnooc and Comac had no immediate comment. China National Aviation, named on the Pentagon list, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The new raft of curbs mark a late push by President Donald Trump to ensure his pressure campaign against China stays in place long after he leaves office next week. While Biden and many Democrats say they oppose Trump’s tactics on China, the restrictions will give the new president increased leverage over Beijing when his team negotiates on trade with leaders of the world’s second-largest economy.
How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill - U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” in 2018 as he began to impose tariffs on about $360 billion of imports from China. Turns out he was wrong on both counts. Even before the coronavirus infected millions of Americans and sparked the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression, China was withstanding Trump’s tariff salvos, according to the very metrics he used to justify them. Once China got the virus under control, demand for medical equipment and work-from-home gear expanded its trade surplus with the U.S. despite the levies. While trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economic powers didn’t start under Trump, he broadened the fight with the unprecedented tariffs and sanctions on technology companies. The tougher approach, according to the scorecard that follows, didn’t go as he hoped. But he’s leaving his successor Joe Biden a blueprint of what worked and what didn’t. “China is too big and too important to the world economy to think that you can cut it out like a paper doll” said Mary Lovely, an economics professor at Syracuse University. “The Trump administration had a wake-up call.” Trump vowed in his 2016 election year to very quickly “start reversing” the U.S. goods trade deficit with China, ignoring mainstream economists who downplay the importance of bilateral deficits. However, the deficit with China increased since then, hitting $287 billion in the 11 months to November last year, according to Chinese data. The deficit did fall year-on-year in 2019, as U.S. companies switched to imports from countries like Vietnam, but it remained higher than the $254 billion gap in 2016. That was partly because Beijing’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs on about $110 billion in goods reduced its imports of American products, and these only started recovering in the last few months of 2020.As part of the phase-one trade deal signed a year ago, Beijing made an ambitious vow to import $172 billion worth of U.S. goods in specific categories in 2020, but through the end of November it had bought just 51% of that goal. The slump in energy prices amid the pandemic and the problems with Boeing Co.’s planes played a part in that failure.The persistent deficit demonstrated how reliant companies are on China’s vast manufacturing capacity, which was highlighted again by the pandemic. China was the only country capable of increasing output on a big enough scale to meet surging demand for goods such as work-from-home computers and medical equipment.
In Final Act, Trump Admin To Present 'Bombshell' Findings Blaming Wuhan Lab For COVID-19, WHO Cover-Up - The Trump administration will present 'dramatic new evidence' that the virus which causes COVID-19 leaked from a Wuhan lab, according to the Daily Mail, which adds that outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will make a "bombshell" announcement that SARS-CoV-2 did not naturally jump from bats to humans through an intermediary species - and was instead cultured by scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), where both Chinese and foreign experts have warned of shoddy bio-security for years.The British government (Daily Mail and all), meanwhile, dismissed the claims in advance - saying that 'all the credible scientific evidence does not point to a leak from the laboratory.' This is of course patently false, as several prominent microbiologists - including one who worked in the Wuhan lab - have said it was likely created there and likely escaped. Two weeks ago, US National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger said there was a "growing body of evidence that the lab is likely the most credible source of the virus," while French intelligence warned of the possibility of a 'catastrophic leak' from the lab due to poor bio-security over a decade before the outbreak.The lab’s highest security ‘P4’ section was built with French help in a deal signed off by Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. But after it opened in 2015, the French contingent due to work there were pushed out by China’s military. -Daily Mail Meanwhile, China scrubbed "hundreds of pages of information" spanning over 300 studies conducted by the WIV, including some which discuss passing diseases from animals to humans. Totally normal behavior from innocent people, we're sure. Pompeo is also set to cite close links between the Institute and the People’s Liberation Army.He will point out its highest security section has always had a ‘dual use’ military and civilian purpose.He is also expected to accuse the World Health Organisation of assisting in a Chinese cover-up by refusing to probe the lab’s possible role.Its ten-person team tasked with investigating the pandemic’s origins will arrive in Wuhan tomorrow – but there is no mention of the lab in its official terms of reference. -Daily Mail"We don’t know whether this virus was natural or artificially created, and if it came from the lab, whether this was an accident or deliberate. It would be immoral and foolish to allow any sort of cover-up," said former Brexit Secretary David Davis, who added that it was 'vital' that the WHO team investigate."If it emerges the virus did come from the lab, China will become the pariah of the world," he added.
The Trump administration finalizes rule attacking federal workers’ right to union representation in workplace discrimination cases - EPI Blog - In his final weeks in office, the Trump administration continues to attack federal workers’ right to union representation. Last week, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) voted to finalize a rule that prohibits union representatives from using official time—which is paid work time representatives use for union activities—to represent their coworkers in equal employment opportunity (EEO) matters, overturning almost 50 years of precedent. By prohibiting union representatives from using official time during EEO matters, the final rule effectively limits the right of federal workers to choose their representative in the EEO complaint process.The rule also creates enormous cost burdens for federal workers who want to file a workplace discrimination complaint. By prohibiting the use of official time in discrimination complaints, federal workers are faced with the choice of hiring a private attorney or asking an inexperienced coworker to be their representative on their own free time. The cost of an attorney will be too costly for many vulnerable federal workers, and between the choices of hiring an attorney, asking an inexperienced coworker to be a representative, or not filing at all, many will forgo exercising their rights.This is only one of many ways the Trump administration has attacked federal workers’ unions. During his first year, President Trump issued three executive orders eroding the collective bargaining rights of federal workers. These orders shortened the timeframe expected to complete bargaining and directed agencies not to bargain over certain topics, limited the use of official time for collective bargaining activities, and weakened due process protections for federal workers subject to discipline. In October 2019, Trump signed an executive order revoking an executive order issued by former President Obama that gave employees of federal contractors the right of first refusal for employment on a new contract when a federal service contract changes hand.These actions directly impact millions of federal workers covered by a union contract. As shown in Table 1, 30.5% of federal workers are covered by a union contract, compared to 11.6% of workers overall. An attack on federal unions has a disproportionate impact on workers of color. Hispanic/Latinx (34.4%) and Asian American/Pacific Islander (AAPI, 33.4%) federal workers are more likely to be unionized than white federal workers (30.2%).
Supreme Court rules Trump administration can enforce rule requiring abortion pills be obtained in person - The Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that the Trump administration could enforce a rule requiring that abortion pills be obtained in person at approved health care facilities and not through the mail or delivery — even during a pandemic. Lower courts had previously sided with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which sued the Trump administration last year, arguing the longstanding Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rule endangered the health of individuals seeking mifepristone, a medication abortion pill, during the pandemic. For a brief few months, people seeking abortion pills were able to get them through mail or delivery, including through mail-order pharmacies. But the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling Tuesday puts an end to that, with Chief Justice John Roberts writing in the majority opinion that deference should be given to political agencies. “The question before us is not whether the requirements for dispensing mifepristone impose an undue burden on a woman’s right to an abortion as a general matter. The question is instead whether the District Court properly ordered the Food and Drug Administration to lift those established requirements because of the court’s own evaluation of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Roberts wrote. The requirement that mifepristone be dispensed in person has been in place since the FDA approved the pill in 2000. The ACLU, representing the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and other groups, sued the Department of Health and Human Services and the FDA in May, challenging the enforcement of the rule during the pandemic. The abortion pill is typically used to end early stage pregnancies. ACOG and other expert groups have long argued that the pill is safe and does not require in-person dispensing to patients. U.S. District Judge Theodore Chuang ruled last year that the FDA should pause enforcement of the requirement, citing the risk posed by COVID-19. The Trump administration appealed, arguing the requirements were necessary. Roberts wrote in his opinion: ”Here as in related contexts concerning government responses to the pandemic, my view is that courts owe significant deference to the politically accountable entities with the ‘background, competence, and expertise to assess public health.’ ”
Up to 8,000 migrants advance in U.S.-bound caravans across Guatemala (Reuters) - Thousands of Hondurans, including many families with children, walked together across Guatemala on Saturday hoping to reach the United States, fleeing poverty and violence in a region battered by the pandemic and back-to-back hurricanes late last year. Between 7,000 and 8,000 migrants have entered Guatemala since Friday, according to Guatemala’s immigration authority, and they are heading toward the Mexican border, where Mexican authorities have deployed troops and riot police. Once the caravan reaches Mexico, it is likely to be subjected to pressure to break up. Mexico’s migration agreement with the United States is still in place, meaning the caravan would be dispersed, a Mexican official said. The first migrant caravan of the year comes less than a week before U.S. President-elect Joe Biden takes office, promising a more humane approach to migration, in contrast to outgoing President Donald Trump’s hardline policies. In the meantime, Mexican and Central American authorities coordinated security and public health measures aimed at deterring mass unauthorized migration across the region. Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico deployed thousands of security forces and the Guatemalan military detained hundreds of migrants on Friday. The caravan has nevertheless grown considerably over the last 24 hours, with members citing a spiraling crisis of hunger and homelessness in Honduras as their reasons for joining. “We have nothing to feed to our children, and thousands of us were left sleeping on the streets,” said Maria Jesus Paz, a mother of four children who said she lost her home in the hurricanes. “This is why we make this decision, even though we know that the journey could cost us our lives,” she added. Coronavirus-related lockdowns shattered Honduras’ economy, which last year suffered its worst contraction on record. .
Pelosi gives '60 Minutes' tour of her vandalized office --House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed “60 Minutes” the damage done to her office when a mob breached the U.S. Capitol building in an effort to stop Congress from certifying President-elect Joe Biden's Electoral College victory. Pelosi showed CBS's Lesley Stahl a door that was broken in during the riot. She also showed a conference room where she said her staffers barricaded the door and hid under a table with the lights off during the riot. The show played an audio recording from one of Pelosi’s staffers of a mob banging on a door in the office and yelling. Pelosi said rioters also smashed a mirror in her private office, stole a computer and more. Stahl noted that the FBI is investigating whether any of the rioters sought to go beyond stopping Congress’s certification of the Electoral College results in order to harm lawmakers or staffers. The chaos interrupted Congress’s certification of the Electoral College vote in the race for the White House between President Trump and President-elect Joe Biden. Pelosi told “60 Minutes" that the rioters “were vocally saying ‘where’s the speaker? We know she has staff. They’re here some place. We’re going to find them.'” The FBI last week arrested Arkansas man Richard Barnett, who was photographed with his feet on a desk in Pelosi’s office. He confirmed his identity to multiple news outlets and said that he took a piece of mail from Pelosi’s office, in addition to leaving a profane note. He faces three federal charges, including knowingly entering or remaining in restricted grounds without authority, violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds and theft of public property or records, according to The Associated Press.
Most of 120 arrested or identified at Capitol riot were longtime Trump supporters: AP analysis - Most of 120 people who have been arrested in connection to or identified as being at the Capitol riot through photos and videos are longtime supporters of President Trump, an Associated Press analysis determined. The Associated Press reviewed the social media posts, voter registrations, court files and other public records of 120 individuals suspected of being involved with the riots at the Capitol building and concluded that most backed the president. The AP analysis comes after several conservatives, including lawmakers, have promoted without evidence the theory that groups like antifa and Black Lives Matter infiltrated the pro-Trump protests and were responsible for the riots in the Capitol. The 120 people included Republican Party officials, GOP political donors, far-right militants, white supremacists and those who believe in QAnon, a theory that Satan-worshipping pedophiles control the government, the AP found. Many of the rioters were found to have posted unfounded claims promoted by Trump that the election had been stolen or that widespread voter fraud contributed to President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. Several of the posts involved threats of violence against Democrats or Republicans considered not on the president’s side. Many posted either during or after Wednesday’s events, with several expressing pride in their actions, according to the AP. At least 90 people have been arrested for charges ranging from curfew violations to felonies such as assaulting police officers, possessing illegal weapons and making death threats against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Records indicate that some of the rioters are accused of being heavily armed, including Lonnie Leroy Coffman and Cleveland Grover Meredith Jr., both supporters of the president. Several were identified as QAnon supporters, including Doug Jensen, Tara Coleman and Jake Chansley, who calls himself the “QAnon Shaman.” Others were found to be associated with the Proud Boys, the far-right group that Trump instructed to "stand back and stand by" during the first presidential debate. The AP analysis contradicts claims that Trump supporters weren't the ones that stormed the Capitol.The FBI has shut that theory down in the days after the attack, saying no evidence has supported that the antifa movement was involved in the storming of the Capitol building.
Trump was more upset that Capitol mob looked ‘low class’ than about violent attacks, reports say -As a mob of his supporters stormed the US Capitol on Wednesday, Donald Trump was reportedly unconcerned about the destruction or insurrection taking place but instead how the violent extremists appeared “low-class”. The president’s ardent loyalists breached security measures and clashed with police, injuring at least 14 people and killing one officer, in the wake of Mr Trump’s fiery speech filled with falsities about the 2020 election. Mr Trump had called on the audience, which had gathered in DC from across America, to march to the Capitol building as Congress convened to certify the results of his electoral defeat to President-elect Joe Biden. What followed was a violent and historic scene: QAnon conspiracy theorists dressed in furs, domestic terrorists waving confederate flags, and hundreds of men and women in Trump campaign gear ransacking lawmakers’ offices. Some took the Senate dais and echoed the president’s false claims of voter fraud. Mr Trump was apparently turned off by the chaotic scene, although not due to the assault on the US government but according to New York Magazine, because his supporters looked “low-class”. “He doesn’t like low class things,” an anonymous White House source told the magazine.
Juan Williams: What if the coup had worked? What if... they had taken a senator hostage? What if they had kidnapped Vice President Pence? Think about it. Then Congress could not have certified President-elect Joe Biden’s election victory. That would have extended President Trump’s control of the White House — and the military — possibly past Inauguration Day until the radicals relented. The Trump seditionists wanted just such a coup. And they came close. This is the dream for the violent white supremacists and Proud Boys who identify Trump as their defender of white, Christian dominance. At the Capitol they waved Confederate flags and wore T-shirts with anti-Semitic slogans. One man wore a hoodie with the slogan "Camp Auschwitz." Their years of talking about lynching liberals led them to hang a noose from wooden gallows they erected on the mall. Their invitations to violence fit with the profile of the people who made a social media hero out of Kyle Rittenhouse, the then-17-year-old who killed two men during protests over the police shooting of a black man in Kenosha, Wis., last year. Rittenhouse, now 18, pleaded not guilty to all charges at his arraignment last week, claiming self-defense. The Trump anarchists at the Capitol also fit with the crowd that is charged with planning to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) last year, in another attempt to subvert America as a nation of laws. These people happily swim in an alternate reality full of despicable lies and radical conspiracy theories fed to them by right-wing media. The big lie in that echo chamber is that Trump won the November election. It is a lie that Trump repeated as the violence at the Capitol was in full rage. He tweeted that “we had an election that was stolen from us.” Earlier at a rally near the White House, Trump fired up his insurrectionists by saying, “Never concede [the election] — you don’t concede when there is theft involved.” While the crowd chanted “Fight for Trump,” the president asked his loyalists to march to the Capitol as Congress was about to certify the election results. He was not done. As the attack was underway, he attacked Vice President Pence as a man lacking “the courage to do what should have been done to protect our country” and stop Congress from certifying the election. The lie that Trump won the presidential race is repeated on the radical right by Trump’s radio, TV and social media lieutenants. According to a Fox News poll taken before Christmas, 36 percent of Americans — including 68 percent of Republicans — believe the election was stolen from Trump. And 45 percent of Republicans approved of the siege on the Capitol in a YouGov snap poll done the day after the attack.
Nearly 6,000 lawyers and law students call for disbarment proceedings against Cruz and Hawley -A coalition of thousands of law students and lawyers have called for Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to be disbarred for leading an objection to President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory, saying the senators contributed to inciting Wednesday’s deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol. Hawley and Cruz, graduates of Yale and Harvard law schools respectively, have faced increasing condemnation after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn the election. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele specifically cited a photo of Hawley making a gesture of support to a crowd in Washington earlier in the day. “Senators Hawley and Cruz directly incited the January 6th insurrection, repeating dangerous and unsubstantiated statements regarding the election and abetting the lawless behavior of President Trump. A violent mob attacked the U.S. Capitol. Five people have died,” the petition reads. “The nation and the world watched as rioters took over the very halls and chambers that embody our democracy. Yet after the violence and terror of the day’s events, Senators Hawley and Cruz still chose to stand in the chamber of the U.S. Senate and persist in their baseless objections to the will of the people,” it adds. Signers include former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), retired judge H. Lee Sarokin and Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe, who has been a vocal critic of the Trump administration.
New details about January 6 riot reveal need for full-scale investigation - New information in media reports shows that Trump’s January 6 fascistic insurrection had high level support from within the Republican Party and critical sections of the police and military-intelligence apparatus. These revelations raise the need for a full-scale investigation into the plot to overthrow the Constitution and all those involved in it. The Washington Post reported yesterday that in the days before the riot, congressional staff implored the US Capitol police to take seriously the clear signs that a coup attempt was being prepared, demanding greater protection for the scheduled Electoral College certification. Staff were “asking for briefings” and were desperate for information about the threat of violence, but Capitol police refused to provide any substantive response, the Post reported. An NBC report also confirmed the overrunning of police barriers was not due to a mistake or lack of information. The FBI and New York City Police Department provided Capitol police with ample intelligence “about the possibility of violence during the Jan. 6 protest,” NBC reported, citing leaks from a senior law enforcement official. NBC noted that these “previously unreported details undercut the assertion by a top FBI official this week that officials had no indication violence was a possibility and add to questions of what intelligence authorities had reviewed prior to the Capitol riot.” Additional reports indicate that during the assault, when officials and staff were huddled in offices hiding from the mob, Capitol police leadership refused to take phone calls from Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, who as chair of the House Administration Committee has oversight of the day-to-day operations of the Capitol, lied to her about the deployment of National Guard troops, and then hung up the phone on Congresswoman Maxine Waters when she requested help. Critical support for the coup attempt also came from within the Pentagon, which Trump packed with loyalists in the aftermath of the November 3 election. During the siege, Democratic leaders called Maryland Governor Larry Hogan from their bunker and begged for National Guard support. Hogan said his state guard was prepared to deploy to evacuate them, but the Pentagon refused multiple requests to allow them into the District. In a Sunday CNN interview, Hogan said: “All I know is that we were trying to get answers and we weren’t getting answers.” In addition, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam revealed yesterday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called him on Wednesday and also pleaded for help. Northam quoted Pelosi’s words: “Ralph, there’s glass being broken around me. I’ve heard there’s been gunfire. We’re just very, very concerned right now.”
‘QAnon Congresswoman’ Lauren Boebert faces calls to resign after tweeting information about Nancy Pelosi during Capitol riot - Rep. Lauren Boebert is facing calls for her resignation after tweeting out information about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during the attack on the US Capitol that left five dead. Ms Boebert - who also said she would carry her firearm to Congress - tweeted details of the lockdown on the day of the insurrection at the US Capitol carried out by supporters of Donald Trump. She first shared that the lawmakers had been moved to the House chambers. Then, she tweeted out the "Speaker has been removed from the chambers." While Ms Boebert did not provide specific details on Ms Peolosi's location, critics allege she was attempting to aid the rioters who were searching for her.In video from the attack, some rioters can be heard yelling that they were "coming for" Ms Pelosi. The Independent has reached out to her office for comment. Ms Boebert has been called the "QAnon Congresswoman" for saying she hopes the baseless conspiracy theory - alleging a demonic global paedophile ring that includes the majority of US Democratic politicians and features secret executions, clones and a mass, apocalyptic reckoning called "The Storm" - is "real." She has said she is not a QAnon follower, but said she was glad that the US Attorney General was investigating "deep state" activities. She is the second QAnon-adjacent lawmaker elected to Congress. Rep Marjorie Taylor Green is also a follower of the conspiracy theory.
Democrats file impeachment article accusing Trump of inciting attack on Capitol - A trio of House Democrats close to leadership on Monday introduced a single article of impeachment against President Trump, charging him with inciting a mob of his supporters to carry out a violent attack on the Capitol in a bid to overturn Joe Biden’s election victory. The article, co-authored by Reps. David Cicilline (R-I.), Ted Lieu (Calif.) and Jamie Raskin (Md.), states that Trump engaged in high crimes and misdemeanors by “willfully inciting violence against the Government of the United States.” In a speech outside the White House before Wednesday's assault, Trump falsely claimed that he had won the election and urged thousands of his fans to march to the Capitol to support his GOP allies, using phrases like “you have to show strength” and “if you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore.” Five people, including Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, were killed as the pro-Trump mob stormed the building to stop House and Senate lawmakers from certifying the Electoral College results. The Capitol now is the scene of a federal murder investigation. Threats were heard against Vice President Mike Pence and individual lawmakers, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “[I]ncited by President Trump, members of the crowd he had addressed, in an attempt to … interfere with the Joint Session’s solemn constitutional duty to certify the results of the 2020 Presidential election, unlawfully breached and vandalized the Capitol, injured and killed law enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress, the Vice President and Congressional personnel, and engaged in other violent, deadly, destructive, and seditious acts,” the impeachment article states. “President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United states and its institutions of Government He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transfer of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.” Pelosi has told Democrats they will move forward with an impeachment vote immediately if Pence and the Cabinet does not invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from power.
Republicans wrestle over removing Trump --GOP lawmakers are wrestling with whether to stick with President Trump between now and Jan. 20 as members of his Cabinet consider resigning or invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska became the first Republican senator to call on Trump to resign, declaring on Friday afternoon that “he has caused enough damage.” “I want him to resign. I want him out,” she told the Anchorage Daily News. A day later, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), who is retiring at the end of 2022, said Trump’s actions rise to the level of impeachment. “I do think the president committed impeachable offenses,” Toomey told Fox News during an interview. Murkowski and Toomey’s comments put pressure on Republican centrists, such as Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Susan Collins (Maine), who as of Saturday night had not addressed whether Trump should step down or be removed from office. Romney, the only Republican senator to vote to convict Trump on an article of impeachment in February, accused Trump of inciting a mob of supporters to storm the Capitol while Congress was counting the vote of the Electoral College on Wednesday. Rep. Garrett Graves (R-La.) on Friday called for Trump to step back from the duties of his office, though he said he did not support impeaching the president or invoking the 25th Amendment. “He effectively needs to resign, maybe even technically finding a way to hand over the keys to [Vice President] Pence,” he said. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), a prominent conservative and potential presidential candidate in 2024, said Thursday he would consider voting to convict Trump on an article of impeachment — something he voted against less than a year ago when House Democrats impeached Trump, charging him with abuse of power and obstructing justice. "If they come together and have a process, I will definitely consider whatever articles they might move, because as I told you I believe the president has disregarded his oath of office," Sasse later said he was angry that Trump appeared “delighted” by images of rioters flooding past security to disrupt the counting of electoral votes. “As this was unfolding on television, Donald Trump was walking around the White House confused about why other people on his team weren’t as excited as he was as you had rioters pushing against Capitol Police trying to get into the building,” Sasse told conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview. “That was happening. He was delighted.” “I’m sure you’ve also had conversations with other senior White House officials, as I have,” Sasse told Hewitt. Particularly damaging to Trump was a clip that emerged showing him and his family in a festive mood watching video monitors of the pro-Trump mob gathered around the Capitol with the party song “Gloria” blaring. The video filmed by Donald Trump Jr. showed his girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle dancing and urging viewers to fight, with an enthusiastic White House chief of staff Mark Meadows flashing a thumbs up shortly before rioters overran Capitol Police and ransacked Senate and House offices. In the background, the president and his daughter Ivanka Trump, a senior White House adviser, could be seen intently watching coverage of the crowd. House Democrats are threatening to impeach Trump before Inauguration Day if he does not resign or if he isn’t removed by the 25th Amendment.
Pence rejects calls to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Trump - Vice President Pence on Tuesday rebuffed calls from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democrats to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump from office. "I do not believe such a course of action is in the best interest of our Nation or consistent with the Constitution," Pence wrote in a letter to Pelosi released Tuesday night. "Last week, I did not yield to pressure to exert beyond my constitutional authority to determine the outcome of the election, and I will not now yield to efforts in the House of Representatives to play political games at a time so serious in the life of our nation," he added. Pence wrote that using the 25th Amendment to remove Trump would “set a terrible precedent.” Instead, he argued that it should only be used in instances where the president is incapacitated or has a disability that prevents them from carrying out the duties of the office. “I urge you and every member of Congress to avoid actions that would further divide and inflame passions of the moment,” Pence wrote. “Work with us to lower the temperature and unite our country as we prepare to inaugurate President-elect Joe Biden as the next President of the United States. I pledge to you that I will continue to do my part to work in good faith with the incoming administration to ensure an orderly transition of power. So help me God." Pelosi's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The vice president wrote to Pelosi on the eve of a House vote on an article of impeachment against Trump for his role in Wednesday's riot at the Capitol, where multiple people died, including a Capitol Police officer. Multiple Republicans have said they will vote in favor of impeaching Trump just one week before his term ends.
McConnell has said he thinks Trump committed impeachable offenses: report - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said he thinks President Trump has committed impeachable offenses following the violent attacks on the Capitol building last week, The New York Times reported Tuesday. The reported comments from the majority leader come as Republicans grapple with how to respond to Democratic impeachment efforts and the fallout from the deadly Capitol riots last week. Five people died as a result of the events at the Capitol, including a Capitol Police officer that served on the force for 12 years. Trump is under scrutiny for encouraging his supporters before the attacks last Wednesday to march to the Capitol “to show strength” and “fight like hell” in opposition to the Electoral College count. He had previously requested his supporters come to D.C. to protest on the day Congress was slated to certify President-elect Joe Biden’s win. Citing people familiar with his thinking, the Times reported that McConnell is pleased that Democrats are pushing to impeach Trump in his final days, saying he thinks it’ll make it easier for the Republican Party to distance itself from the president. According to the Times, McConnell has said he wants to examine the language of the article of impeachment the House plans to pass Wednesday against Trump, which alleges that the president incited violence against the U.S. government. The effort is expected to receive support from about a dozen Republicans after a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol and breached security, broke windows, vandalized offices and forced lawmakers to evacuate into undisclosed locations to hide from the rioters. The Senate majority leader has indicated in private conversations that impeachment gives the GOP an opportunity to part from Trump, who McConnell credits with losing the Senate for Republicans. In runoff elections in Georgia earlier this month, Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler lost to their Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, giving Democrats a slim majority in the upper chamber with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote. Officials briefed on the conversation told the Times that Biden called McConnell to ask whether the Senate could work to confirm his Cabinet at the same time as a Senate impeachment trial. McConnell reportedly told Biden he’d ask the Senate parliamentarian and get back shortly. David Popp, a spokesman for McConnell, declined to comment to the Times, instead citing the leader’s speech on the floor on the day of the Capitol raid.
Cheney says she'll vote to impeach Trump - House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney (Wyo.), the No. 3 Republican in the House, announced Tuesday that she plans to vote to impeach President Trump for inciting a violent mob at the Capitol last week. Cheney is the first member of House GOP leadership to announce their support for impeachment, breaking with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on the matter. Cheney told members on a conference call on Monday evening she felt it was a "vote of conscience," according to one source familiar with her remarks. "On January 6, 2021 a violent mob attacked the United States Capitol to obstruct the process of our democracy and stop the counting of presidential electoral votes. This insurrection caused injury, death and destruction in the most sacred space in our Republic," she said in a statement on Tuesday. "Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution. "I will vote to impeach the President," she said.
Impeaching lays groundwork for disqualification — even without a conviction - The second impeachment is coming. What’s the point, you may ask, if the Senate can’t muster a two-thirds vote to convict Trump, notwithstanding report of a rising anti-Trump Senate Republican tide. One justification we will be hearing a lot: A second impeachment writes an indelible record for history. A president’s unprecedented misconduct — fomenting violence against another branch of government — should be met with an unprecedented response. Democracy requires accountability.But there is also a little-mentioned consequence of impeachment, even if the Senate does not convict Trump and bar him from holding another office: This impeachment would lay the groundwork for future action to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment.Section 3 of that provision states:No Person shall . . . hold any office . . . under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath . . . to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection . . . or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. Mr. Trump easily satisfies the first element for disqualification, having taken his oath of office. An impeachment for inciting an insurrection powerfully declares the second. If there is a Congressional determination that he incited a violent assault on the government, as the Jan. 11 Impeachment Article alleges, that dots the “i” on insurrection-engaging. The 14th Amendment was adopted after the Civil War. Section 3 was aimed at former state or federal officers who acted to support the Confederacy. As Justice Reade of North Carolina’s Supreme Courtwrote in 1869, the idea was “that one who had taken an oath to support the Constitution and violated it, ought to be excluded from taking it again.”What is the evidence that Trump “engaged in insurrection?” Webster’s defines the term as “an act or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government.”Trump invited his supporters to Washington for “wild protests” of Congress certifying the election. Immediately before a mob of them violently broke into the Capitol, he spoke to them, saying:
- “We will stop the steal”
- “We're going to walk down to the Capitol”
- “You'll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong.”
- “When you catch somebody in a fraud, you are allowed to go by very different rules.”
During the break-in, Trump tweeted: “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution.” Rioters with phones in the Capitol building were looking for the vice-president, saying that they would hang him from a tree. Five people, including a Capitol policeman, died in the assault on our democracy. Precedent tells us that under Section 3, simple words can disqualify an officeholder. In 1919 and 1920, applying Section 3, Congress refused to seat elected socialist Victor L. Berger for having “given aid and comfort” to Germany during World War I by publishing a manifesto opposing World War I.
GOP lawmakers introduce resolution to censure Trump over Capitol riot - Six House Republicans on Tuesday introduced a resolution to censure President Trump over his role in stoking last week’s violent riots at the U.S. Capitol and efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The group, led by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), argued that a censure was the most effective way to punish Trump, arguing that the current impeachment effort being waged in the House over the violence is likely to result in the president’s acquittal in the Senate and could further divide a significantly fractured nation. “President Trump’s attempts to undermine the outcome of the 2020 election have been unconscionable. The combination of a false information campaign coupled with inflammatory rhetoric led to the devastation that I was a personal witness to on the House Floor on Jan. 6. His actions threatened the integrity of our democracy, Congress, and his own vice president. For months, President Trump has been lying to the American people with false information, and giving his supporters false expectations. The election is over,” said Fitzpatrick. “I believe censuring the president after his actions helps hold him accountable and could garner wide bipartisan support, allowing the House to remain united during some of our nation’s darkest days,” added Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.). “Like many of my colleagues, I came to Washington promising to bridge the divide. I hope both parties can acknowledge our role in perpetuating division and come together to support this effort and move forward for our constituents and the nation.” GOP Reps. John Curtis (Utah), Peter Meijer (Mich.), Tom Reed (N.Y.) and Fred Upton (Mich.) joined Fitzpatrick and Kim in introducing the resolution.
Why Trump could face criminal charges for inciting violence and insurrection -- A key issue in any Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation of President Trump for inciting violence and insurrection will be whether the evidence satisfies the standard in Brandenburg v. Ohio. There, the Supreme Court held that the First Amendment does not protect speech “directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.” The theory is that the attack on the Capitol was the intended outcome of a months’ long campaign by Trump and his allies to stoke rage among Trump supporters with lies that the election had been stolen. The campaign culminated in Trump’s speech on Jan. 6 in which he intentionally incited a mob to attack the Capitol just as Congress was confirming the Electoral College vote for Biden. In the first phase of this campaign, according to one timeline, between Election Day and the Jan. 6 rally, the president, his family, his lawyers and allies posted 200 false claims on Twitter about election fraud, which were retweeted more than 3.5 million times, and liked more than nine million times. Their rhetoric grew increasingly violent as courts rejected the Trump campaign’s legal challenges to the election. In mid-November, Trump attorney L. Lin Wood told a Trump rally in Georgia, “We’re going to slay Goliath, the communists, the liberals, the phonies. Joe Biden will never set foot in the Oval Office.” In early December, another Trump attorney, Sidney Powell, told a Twitter user to “swarm the state capital, Congress.” On Jan. 1, Rep. Louie Gohmert(R-Texas) told a conservative media outlet that the rejection of Trump’s legal challenges meant that “you got to go into the streets” and be “violent.” Trump, who has a history of using veiled and not-so-veiled threats of violence to intimidate opponents, urged his followers to go to the Jan. 6 rally and promised them that the rally “will be wild.” He told a crowd in Georgia, “They’re not taking this White House. We’re going to fight like hell.” The term “Storm the Capitol” was repeated 100,000 times on social media in December and early January.The Jan. 6 rally, under the working theory, represented Trump’s last chance to overturn the election before Biden’s inauguration. At the rally, Rudolph Giuliani told the assembled crowd, which included white nationalists, QAnon adherents and rightwing militia members, “Let’s have trial by combat.” Donald Trump, Jr., said of Republicans who were not supporting his father, “we’re coming for you and we’re going to have a good time doing it.” In his one-hour address, Trump suggested that Vice President Mike Pencemight be in danger if he didn’t block the Electoral College confirmation (“What takes courage is to do nothing”). He repeated incendiary lies that the election had been stolen and told the crowd that “you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength.” While Trump said once in passing that the crowd should be peaceful, he used the words fight or fighting 20 times (“If we don’t fight like Hell, we are not going to have a country anymore.”) and told the crowd that “very different rules” now applied. The incitement to imminent violence occurred when Trump told the crowd to march on the Capitol. He didn’t need to explicitly say that they should attack the Capitol because his and the others’ lies about election fraud and their violent metaphors at the rally had deliberately turned them into a frenzied mob bent on a violent rampage. Some appeared to chant “Hang Mike Pence.”After the attack began, under the working theory, Trump incited the rampaging mob even further and expressed approval for what they had done. Thus, while the attack was underway, Trump tweeted that Pence, who was in the Capitol, “didn’t have the courage” to block the Electoral College proceedings, which might have put Pence in greater jeopardy.
Congressman says some GOP lawmakers are 'paralyzed with fear,' and think their families will be attacked if they vote for impeachment - Some Republicans in Congress are ostensibly in favor of impeaching President Donald Trump, but may vote against it because they are "paralyzed with fear" over threats, Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., said Wednesday. Crow confirmed what GOP lawmakers have been relaying to reporters under the condition of anonymity in recent days, opening up about his discussions with colleagues in an MSNBC interview. "But the majority of them are actually paralyzed with fear," Crow said. "I had a lot of conversations with my Republican colleagues last night, and a couple of them broke down in tears talking to me and saying that they are afraid for their lives if they vote for their impeachment."’
Trump Impeached for Inciting Insurrection -— Donald J. Trump on Wednesday became the first American president to be impeached twice, as 10 members of his party joined with Democrats in the House to charge him with “incitement of insurrection” for his role in egging on a violent mob that stormed the Capitol last week. Reconvening in a building now heavily militarized against threats from pro-Trump activists and adorned with bunting for the inauguration of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., lawmakers voted 232 to 197 to approve a single impeachment article. It accused Mr. Trump of “inciting violence against the government of the United States” in his quest to overturn the election results, and called for him to be removed and disqualified from ever holding public office again.The vote left another indelible stain on Mr. Trump’s presidency just a week before he is slated to leave office and laid bare the cracks running through the Republican Party. More members of his partyvoted to charge the president than in any other impeachment. Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, declaring the past week one of the darkest chapters in American history, implored colleagues to embrace “a constitutional remedy that will ensure that the republic will be safe from this man who is so resolutely determined to tear down the things that we hold dear and that hold us together.”A little more than a year after she led a painstaking, three-month process to impeach Mr. Trump the first time for a pressure campaign on Ukraine to incriminate Mr. Biden — a case rejected by the president’s unfailingly loyal Republican supporters — Ms. Pelosi had moved this time with little fanfare to do the same job in only seven days. “He must go. He is a clear and present danger to the nation that we all love,” the speaker said, adding later, “It gives me no pleasure to say this — it breaks my heart.” The top House Republican, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, conceded in a pained speech on the floor that Mr. Trump had been to blame for the deadly assault at the Capitol. It had forced the vice president and lawmakers who had gathered there to formalize Mr. Biden’s victory to flee for their lives. “The president bears responsibility for Wednesday’s attack on Congress by mob rioters,” said Mr. McCarthy, one of the 138 Republicans who returned to the House floor after the mayhem and voted to reject certified electoral votes for Mr. Biden. “He should have immediately denounced the mob when he saw what was unfolding.”
Impeachment: Mitch McConnell Won't Agree to Early Start for Trump Senate Trial - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told other Republican senators he’s reached no decision on whether he’ll vote to impeach President Donald Trump but a spokesman said he’s rejected a call by Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to convene in an emergency session to quickly start proceedings. His decision to reject a swift trial for Trump on an article of impeachment, expected to be approved Wednesday by the House, almost certainly won’t get under way before Trump’s term ends in the early afternoon on Jan. 20. McConnell has been under increasing pressure to take a public stand on the impeachment after last week’s storming of the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters. President-elect Joe Biden has made a personal plea for letting the Senate vote on his cabinet nominees at the same time that a trial proceeds. McConnell has told associates that he believes that Trump engaged in impeachable offenses last week when he egged on protesters before they converged on the Capitol, two people familiar with the matter said. But in a note to Republican senators today, he told them that he hasn’t made any decision about whether to convict Trump. McConnell told them that “while the press has been full of speculation, I have not made a final decision on how I will vote and I intend to listen to the legal arguments when they are presented to the Senate,” according to an excerpt released by his office. If McConnell were to support a conviction for Trump, that could have enormous sway among Republicans in the chamber, which will be led by Democrats later this month once three new Democratic senators are seated and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is sworn in and can break a tie in a chamber split 50-50 between the parties. So far, no Republicans have said they would convict Trump although Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told a home-state newspaper last week she wants Trump out of office after his role in last week’s insurgency. Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania has said he believes Trump committed impeachable offenses but hasn’t said he would vote to convict either. Utah Senator Mitt Romney was the only Republican to vote for conviction on one count during Trump’s impeachment trial in January 2020. In the House, at least six Republicans have broken ranks and announced they would vote in favor of Trump’s impeachment.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cancels European trip because US allies were too 'embarrassed' to meet with him US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will not go on his final diplomatic trip to Europe as previously planned. Pompeo was forced to cancel the trip on Tuesday after Luxembourg's foreign minister and European Union officials refused to meet with him, according to Reuters. The jaunt was set to begin in Luxembourg, the small yet financially powerful nation land locked between Belgium, Germany and France. However, officials in Luxembourg "showed reluctance to grant him appointments," according to Reuters. A diplomatic source told Reuters that allies would have been "embarrassed" to meet with Pompeo after last week's deadly attempted coup on Capitol Hill. Luxembourg Foreign Affairs Minister Jean Asselborn, who was the first to reportedly snub Pompeo, called President Donald Trump a "criminal" and a "political pyromaniac who should be sent to criminal court" during an interview on the French radio station RTL on Jan. 7, the day after the insurrection. Pompeo will also miss out on a private dinner with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg scheduled for Wednesday evening. Another snub reported by Reuters is Belgian Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmes, who was slated to meet with Pompeo after his dinner with the NATO secretary-general. In a statement to Reuters, the State Department offered a different reason for the trip's cancellation, citing transition work for when President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20.
Trump goes ‘ballistic’ over Twitter ban as it emerges president wanted to march to Capitol with supporters - Donald Trump has used Twitter as his primary means of communication throughout his presidency. But that platform was taken away from him permanently on Friday, apparently causing Mr Trump to hit the roof. The president went“ballistic”, a senior administration official told Politico on Friday, after the platform’s decision to remove his account citing “the risk of further incitement of violence” following the deadly insurrection on Wednesday at the US Capitol by a pro-Trump mob. Now Mr Trump is “scrambling to figure out what his options are” to communicate with his supporters, the official said. A White House statement said the president was “negotiating with various other sites” while also considering “building out our own platform in the near future”. The news of the president’s Twitter shutdown came after it emerged that he wanted to march to the US Capitol with his supporters on Wednesday, where the House and Senate were meeting to certify the Electoral College votes. But advisers reportedly told Mr Trump “no”, according to people briefed on the discussions, The New Times reported. Mr Trump also reportedly wanted the National Guard brought in so they could hold off anti-Trump counter-protesters who might turn up. Instead the National Guard had to be called in on Wednesday to assist other law enforcement agencies in removing pro-Trump rioters from Capitol grounds. Reports indicated Mr Trump pushed back initially on sending additional help for Capitol Police once the situation deteriorated. Along with Mr Trump’s Twitter ban, attorney Sidney Powell and the president’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn were also permanently suspended from the platform for spreading conspiracy theories.Brad Parscale, Mr Trump’s former campaign manager, reportedly held a meeting with the president and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, last year to discuss moving from Twitter over to Parler – a new social media site popular among conservatives. Mr Kushner shot down that idea, The New York Times reports, because he, like the president, believed that Twitter would never take action against the president.
Insurrection Versus Insurrection -- Kunstler -- In the dark hours of Sunday, the BigTech-government alliance showed its hand in its massive purge of the public square — which is what social media became in a nation of strip-malls, parking lots, and nonstop propaganda — shutting down all voices countering the constructed narrative-du-jour: that the Democratic Party stands for defending Americans’ liberty against a rogue president. There have been many “shots” fired so far to kick off a civil war, but that action was an artillery blast. Remember, the Left’s playbook is to accuse their opposition of doing exactly what they are doing. And so, of course, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has launched a last-minute impeachment on grounds of the president inciting “insurrection.” By a strange coincidence, reports on as-yet-still-live web channels say that the president has actually invoked the Insurrection Act against seditionists in our government, including, perhaps, Ms. Pelosi. If it is true — and I can’t confirm it — then the nation has blundered into an epic political battle. Mr. Trump is still president, and you’ve probably noticed he has been president for four years to date, which ought to suggest that he holds a great deal of accumulated information about the seditionists who have been playing games with him through all those years. So, two questions might be: how much of that information describes criminal acts by his adversaries — most recently, a deeply suspicious national election based on hackable vote-tabulation computers — and what’s within the president’s power to do something about it? I guess we’ll find out. Or, to state it a little differently, it is impossible that the president does not have barge-loads of information about the people who strove mightily to take him down for four years. At least two pillars of the Intel Community — the CIA and the FBI — have been actively and visibly working to undermine and gaslight him, but you can be sure that the president knows where the gas has been coming from, and these agencies are not the only sources of dark information in this world. Also consider that not all the employees at these agencies are on the side of sedition. By its work this weekend, starring Jack Dorsey (Twitter), Zuck (Facebook), Tim Cook (Apple), and Jeff Bezos (Amazon and The WashPo), you know exactly what you would be getting with The Resistance taking power in the White House and Congress: unvarnished tyranny. No free speech for you! They will not permit opposing voices to be heard, especially about the janky election that elevated America’s booby-prize, Joe Biden, to the highest office in the land.Now there’s a charismatic, charming, dynamic, in-charge guy! He’s already doing such a swell job “healing America.” For instance, his declaration Tuesday to give $30-billion to businesses run by “black, brown, and Native American entrepreneurs” (WashPo). Uh, white folks need not apply? Since when are federal disbursements explicitly race-based? What and who, exactly, comprise the committee set up to operate Joe Biden, the hypothetical, holographic President? Surely you don’t believe he’s spirit-cooking this sort of economic policy on his own down in the fabled basement.And so, here we stand at the start of what’s liable to be a fateful week for the United States. There is a lot of chatter on the lowdown that the current president — that would be Mr. Trump, for those out there who are confused — is about to act to take down the scurvy party that enabled and condoned six months of rioting, arson, and looting in at least a dozen cities — cadres of whom may have actually instigated that incursion into the US Capitol building on Wednesday. The president appears to understand his duty to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic. He had plenty of opportunity to be a quitter from 2017 to 2021 and he hung in there, against every cockamamie operation the Deep State threw at him. Odds are he’s not quitting now.
The Elites And The Sheeple - Dave Cohen -The bottom line is that I am an old liberal. I am using the word 'liberal' in the philosophical old sense. To prevent people in a large, pluralistic human society from killing each other, to prevent unchecked predation, humans came up with the idea of generalized tolerancefor all viewpoints (political, religious, etc.). To that end, humans established "natural" or "god-given" rights which everybody had as a birthright. These included the right to free speech, the right to peaceably assemble, the right to worship any god you wanted, and so forth. An old liberal like me thinks this kind of freedom is the best possible solution to the obvious problems presented by human nature. Unfortunately, elites in the Western world have lost sight of the wisdom of this best possible solution. These elites, who run all of our most fundamental institutions, are now promoting and implementing intolerance through the creation of scapegoats. The Nazis had the Jews, the "leftist" elites in contemporary America have Trump and his supporters. It's always the same story historically. Yesterday the "wrong-think" purges began on social media, which forms the "public square" in contemporary life. Those who control the "narrative" can control the thinking of others and this manipulation is carried out on social media by those who own it. This works because the vast majority of humans are incapable of independent thought and lack the ability to question authority (the narrative). That weakness (incapacity) is part of human nature, too. All this is really Fascism 101 or Totalitarianism 101 (in 2020, the merger of corporate and government power). The predatory Elites and the Sheeple, their prey. Works every time. The worst is yet to come, but trust me, it's coming. I tried to warn you in posts earlier this year. I knew those warnings would fail, but I felt obligated to try. In fact, I received a lot of hate for writing what I did. I expected that, too. As Luke Rudkowski says in the video below, Orwell's 1984 actually started yesterday. This is an historical podcastand I think you should watch it all the way through. There are weak moments in this very long discussion, but predominantly you will see young, liberal-minded people trying to come to grips with the terrible and evil fact that they no longer live in a free society.
How Americans Perceive the Events on Capitol Hill -An interesting poll by YouGov looks at how Americans felt about the assault on the seat of their government in early January 2021. Here are the results.YouGov polled 1,397 registered voters who had heard about the events on Capitol Hill and, not surprisingly, voters' sentiment toward the events are divided along party lines. Of all voters, 62 percent perceived that the actions taken by the protestors were a threat to democracy with 63 percent saying that they "strongly oppose" the actions taken by "President Trump's supporters" with an additional 8 percent saying that they "somewhat oppose" what has happened. Overall, 21 percent of voters stated that they supported the actions at the Capitol and, among those who believe that voter fraud took place during the 2020 Presidential election, 56 percent felt that the actions of the demonstrators was justified.These results can be broken down further as follows:
- 1.) 93 percent of Democrats perceived the actions as a threat with only 4 percent perceiving the actions as not a threat to democracy.
- 2.) 55 percent of Independents perceived the actions as a threat with 32 percent perceiving the actions as not a threat to democracy.
- 3.) 27 percent of Republicans perceived the actions as a threat with 68 percent perceiving the actions as not a threat to democracy.
Among Republicans, 45 percent actively supported the actions of the demonstrators at Capitol Hill with 43 percent being opposed. Here is a graphic showing the results:
Twitter blocks 70,000 QAnon accounts after US Capitol riot - (AP) — Twitter says it has suspended more than 70,000 accounts associated with the far right QAnon conspiracy theory following last week’s U.S. Capitol riot.The social media company said Tuesday that given the events last week in Washington, D.C., where a mob of pro-Trump loyalists tried to violently storm the Capitol building, it was taking action against online behavior “that has the potential to lead to offline harm.”In many cases, a single individual operated numerous accounts, driving up the total number of affected accounts, the company said in a blog post. “These accounts were engaged in sharing harmful QAnon-associated content at scale and were primarily dedicated to the propagation of this conspiracy theory across the service,” the company said.
Here's why social media ban on Trump, conservatives will only make things worse - The leader of the free world, at least for the next nine days, got banned on Friday night from using his favorite form of communication whenTwitter permanently dismissed him from the platform. The questions are: How did we get here? And where do we go next? First, let's review Twitter's decision to ban Trump in perpetuity. The last straw apparently came Friday afternoon after Trump tweeted that he won't be attending President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. When told the news, Biden said he was in agreement with Trump. No matter: Twitter explained its decision this way:"President Trump’s statement that he will not be attending the Inauguration is being received by a number of his supporters as further confirmation that the election was not legitimate and […,] may also serve as encouragement to those potentially considering violent acts that the Inauguration would be a 'safe' target." So, Twitter has mind-readers and code-breakers now? Twitter's decisions on who stays and who goes is the definition of arbitrary. The supreme leader of Iran, for example, still has an account, which he uses to threaten whole countries, most notably the U.S. and Israel, on a regular basis. Iran is also the leading state sponsor of terror. Chinese government officials, who push the lie that the U.S. created and weaponized the coronavirus, also are allowed to keep their accounts. Here at home, Louis Farrakhan's account is still alive and well. On it, he refers to Jews as rats, while white supremacist Richard Spencer also gets to tweet to his heart's content. If Twitter has standards, it sure is selective in how and to whom they're applied. From a business perspective, banning the president has inspired top conservative voices ranging from Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin to Dan Bongino to flee the platform."I'm leaving the platform permanently for Parler. I'll post my final tweet and message for Twitter tomorrow when the 12-hour lockdown ends," Bongino, who had more than 2.9 million followers, told the Washington Examiner. "F*** these a**holes." "Twitter needs me, I don't need them. I provide them with content. Hopefully, this leads to more high-profile accounts leaving Twitter," Bongino said.Levin called Twitter's decision "fascism." "I have suspended my own Twitter account in protest against Twitter's fascism. I ask all my followers to join me now on Parler and Rumble," Levin wrote Friday. Bottom line: While the First Amendment doesn't apply here regarding Trump's free speech rights since the social media companies banning him are privately held, this will hurt business in a way the company will feel. Remember, 74 million people voted for Trump. He has nearly 89 million followers on Twitter alone, which is about the equivalent of the populations of France and Australia combined. If Trump's gone, many will protest by deactivating their accounts.
Meet Rebekah Mercer, the deep-pocketed co-founder of Parler, a controversial conservative social network - Rebekah Mercer, a prominent conservative donor, revealed Saturday that she is helping to bankroll Parler, the rapidly growing but controversial conservative social media platform that was at the top of App Store charts last week. Mercer is the daughter of Robert Mercer, a hedge fund manager and the co-founder of the now-defunct political data-analysis firm Cambridge Analytica. The Mercers have been prominent supporters of President Donald Trump and conservative causes. "John and I started Parler to provide a neutral platform for free speech, as our founders intended, and also to create a social media environment that would protect data privacy," Mercer said in a statement on the platform. "The ever increasing tyranny and hubris of our tech overlords demands that someone lead the fight against data mining, and for the protection of free speech online. That someone is Parler, a beacon to all who value their liberty, free speech, and personal privacy."Parler, founded in 2018 by Mercer, John Matze and Jared Thomson, bills itself as "unbiased social media" and a place where people can "speak freely and express yourself openly without fear of being 'deplatformed' for your views," according to its website and App Store description. It looks like a mashup of Twitter and Instagram, with its main feed, follower counts and ways to share posts and links. The platform became the most-downloaded free app in the Apple App Store on the weekend of November 8 -- the day major media outlets called the election for Joe Biden.Parler mostly attracts conservative users. Some of Parler's most-active users include Fox News host Sean Hannity, radio personality Mark Levin, far-right activist Laura Loomer, Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Devin Nunes. Eric Trump and Donald Trump's presidential campaign also have accounts on the platform.A substantial number of users have followed these voices onto the platform, fueled by complaints over actions major social media platforms have taken against election misinformation and false allegations of voter fraud, such as disputing claims with fact-check labels. Twitter (TWTR), more than Facebook (FB), took aggressive action on many of President Trump's tweets during the election. At one point, the social network applied warning labels to more than a third of Trump's tweets after polls closed. Some of Trump's tweets were hidden behind a warning label which users had to click through before being able to read what they said.
Amazon is removing Parler from its web hosting service, meaning the platform will go offline Sunday if it can't find another host - Amazon is removing the fast-growing social media network Parler from its web hosting service, according to an email obtained by BuzzFeed News. Amazon confirmed the authenticity of the letter to Insider.In the email, Amazon Web Services said Parler violated its terms of service due to an increase in violent content shared on the website. Amazon said it "cannot provide services to a customer that is unable to effectively identify and remove content that encourages or incites violence against others.""Because Parler cannot comply with our terms of service and poses a very real risk to public safety, we plan to suspend Parler's account effective Sunday, January 10th, at 11:59PM PST," the email said.Unless Parler is able to find an alternative hosting platform, the website will go offline Sunday night.Parler CEO John Matze confirmed Amazon's decision in a post on the platform, saying its possible Parler will be offline for "up to a week.""We will try our best to move to a new provider right now as we have many competing for our business, however Amazon, Google and Apple purposefully did this as a coordinated effort knowing our options would be limited," he said. Google and Apple banned the Parler app from their app stores this week also for violating policies by failing to remove violent content.
Facebook Played Major Role Coordinating 'Capitol Riot' As Sandberg Deflects Blame - Over the last week, Twitter alternative Parler was summarily executed by Amazon, which kicked the conservative social media platform off of its servers due to 'far-right' users coordinating last week's protest at the Capitol which turned into a riot after a small group split off, gained access to the Capitol building, and ran amok. Now we learn that Facebook also had a giant role in coordinating the so-called 'Capitol Riots' which President Trump was just impeached over on Wednesday for allegedly inciting the incident. According to the Washington Post, a "growing body of evidence shows that Facebook played a much larger role" than COO Sharyl Sandberg claimed in a Monday interview livestreamed by Reuters, in what the Post described as 'deflecting blame.' "I think these events were largely organized on platforms that don’t have our abilities to stop hate, don’t have our standards and don’t have our transparency," said Sandberg. She noted that last week the company took down content affiliated with the baseless QAnon conspiracy theory and the Proud Boys extremist group, as well as content affiliated with the pro-Trump “Stop the Steal” movement seeking to delegitimize election results. She said there was likely to be some content on Facebook because the company’s enforcement was “never perfect.” -Washington Post Au contraire Sharyl, it's far more than just 'some' content.According to the Post, the hashtag #StopTheSteal was still widely in use as of Monday, when a search revealed that128,000 people were talking about it, and in many cases using it to coordinate for the rally, according to Eric Feinberg, Vice President with the Coalition for a Safer Web.What's more, two dozen GOP officials and organizations in at least 12 states coordinated bus trips to the rally via Facebook, according to Media Matters.
Fringe social networks boosted after mob attack - Fringe social media networks are seeing their user bases swell in the aftermath of last week’s insurrection at the Capitol building and the subsequent banning of President Trump and some of his loudest supporters from Facebook and Twitter. That migration raises concerns from experts that otherwise peaceful supporters of the president are moving into close proximity with extremist groups that congregate in those spaces. Twitter last week took the unprecedented step of permanently banning the president. It also cracked down on accounts sharing conspiracy theories, removing 70,000 accounts over the span of a few days including most remaining major QAnon promoters. Facebook also suspended Trump until at least the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden and committed to removing all content associated with “Stop the Steal,” one of the major movements pushing the false belief that the general election was rigged. The push by mainstream platforms to weed out accounts pushing the disinformation narratives may be too late to slow the spread of conspiracies, according to experts. “There are dozens of sites sitting around and already built that are ready to welcome in whatever waves of people are moving from platform to platform,” Jared Holt, a visiting research fellow at Digital Forensic Research Lab told The Hill. “Cracking down on platforms is undeniably a good way to minimize the spread of extremism outside of its own echo chamber, but it doesn’t make extremism go away.” Alternative social media platforms have seen huge traffic spikes in the days since these crackdowns. Parler was one of the largest beneficiaries. Between Jan. 6 and 10, the app was downloaded from American app stores 825,000 times, according to data from Sensor Tower shared with The Hill. The social media platform, which markets itself as a free speech haven, was removed from both the Apple and Google app stores and ultimately pulled offline by Amazon Web Services shortly after that surge. However, Parler has already transferred its domain to a new web hosting service, Epik, meaning it could soon be back online. Gab, which has pitched itself similarly to Parler, has been largely unusable since the mob stormed the Capitol, even as new users flood in. The app has not been available from Apple or Google’s stores since 2017 over hate speech violations. Researchers have also seen users migrate to less mainstream platforms like MeWe and CloutHub. Between Jan. 6 and 10, MeWe — a right wing alternative to Facebook — was installed 402,000 times from U.S. app stores, a significant increase from the 38,000 installs of the app the week before, according to Sensor Tower’s data. CloutHub’s daily downloads surged from roughly 9,000 on Jan. 6 to more than 60,000 — the all-time high for the platform — just five days later, according to estimates by mobile intelligence provider Apptopia. Privacy-centric platforms Telegram and Signal have also seen big upticks in activity. Telegram was downloaded 857,000 times between Jan. 6 and 11, up more than 200 percent from the year prior according to Sensor Tower. The platform, which allows users to join channels that serve almost like news feeds, appears to have gained an additional bump from Parler being taken down. One channel dedicated to users leaving the platform already has 16,000 members.
Right-wing Extremist Chatter Spreads on New Platforms As Threat of Political Violence Ramps Up - With the threat of future political violence looming, a surge in online extremist chatter is increasingly taking place in private groups and encrypted messaging apps with little, if any, rules about what is posted. Law enforcement nationwide is on high alert after last week’s riot at the Capitol, with reports suggesting that several extremist groups have planned armed demonstrations across the country to protest the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. But the severity of the threat is increasingly hard to ascertain, in part because of the crackdown that authorities have already put in place on message boards. That crackdown has driven would-be insurrectionists further underground and scattered their activity across innumerable platforms, including one — TikTok — that’s best known as a hub for teens to share videos. The diffuse, chaotic nature of the online chatter has fed into a climate of fear. Ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the FBI has reportedly warned law enforcement agencies across the country to be on high alert for potentially violent protests in all 50 states over the next few weeks, and has gathered intelligence about an armed group planning to travel to D.C. to stage an uprising on the day of the inauguration. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has authorized up to 15,000 National Guardsmen from around the country to deploy to D.C. to support local law enforcement ahead of and on January 20. Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) said on Tuesday morning that he and other lawmakers have been briefed about potential plots surrounding the inauguration. "They were talking about 4,000 armed 'patriots' to surround the Capitol and prevent any Democrat from going in," he said. "They have published rules of engagement, meaning when you shoot and when you don't. So this is an organized group that has a plan. They are committed to doing what they're doing because I think in their minds, you know, they are patriots and they're talking about 1776 and so this is now a contest of wills." Complicating efforts to tamp down on the extremism is the decentralized and chaotic nature in which it is spreading. Countless posters — few of which are directly linked to publicly-known extremist groups — have proliferated through extremist channels and social media, listing dates, times, and specific locations for people to gather in violent protest against the so-called “stolen” election, primarily at state capitols and federal landmarks. TikTok videos from influencers bearing the Three Percenters logo as their avatar, referring to the anti-government militia movement, are hyping up future protests — even going so far as to publish videos of them collecting ammunition and guns, while playing doctored audio suggesting that Trump wants them to target his vice president, Mike Pence. On Gab and Telegram, two fringe networks frequented by white nationalist and other extremist groups, mysteriously-originated videos of military personnel walking around American cities have also gone viral, with social media users either questioning if such activity was part of support for Donald Trump’s presidency or efforts by the government to clamp down on people’s constitutional rights. In this milieu several different movements have emerged: the Million Militia March, with a flag sanctifying the QAnon supporter who died while storming the Capitol last week; Patriot Action for America, which called for tens of thousands of “patriots” to stop Democrat lawmakers from entering the Capitol on the 16th and 17th; or just simply a generic march to take back America, with attendees free to fill in the blanks as they wish.
'Kill him with his own gun': DC Metropolitan Police describe facing the mob at the Capitol -- As DC Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone lay on the ground at the US Capitol building, stunned and injured, he knew a group of rioters were stripping him of his gear. They grabbed spare ammunition, ripped the police radio off his chest and even stole his badge. Then, Fanone, who had just been Tasered several times in the back of the neck, heard something chilling that made him go into survival mode. "Some guys started getting a hold of my gun and they were screaming out, 'Kill him with his own gun,'" said Fanone, who's been a police officer for almost two decades. Fanone, one of three officers who spoke with CNN, described his experience fighting a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters who'd invaded the Capitol in an insurrection unheard of in modern American history. Federal officials have said the details of the violence that come out will be disturbing. "People are going to be shocked by some of the egregious contact that happened in the Capitol," acting US Attorney Michael Sherwin said Tuesday in reference to attacks on police officers. Fanone raced to the building with his partner and helped officers who were being pushed back by rioters. But Fanone, who said he'd rather be shot than be pulled into a crowd where he had no control, was suddenly in his biggest nightmare as an officer. And in those few moments, Fanone considered using deadly force. He thought about using his gun but knew that he didn't have enough fire power and he'd soon be overpowered again, except this time they would probably use his gun against him and they'd have all the reason to end his life. "So, the other option I thought of was to try to appeal to somebody's humanity. And I just remember yelling out that I have kids. And it seemed to work," said the 40-year-old father of four.
QAnon believer who plotted to kill Nancy Pelosi came to D.C. ready for war - The Colorado man brought a Glock, an assault-style rifle with telescopic sight, high-capacity magazines and about 2,500 rounds of ammunition, including at least 320 “armor-piercing” rounds, according to court records. The day after a Colorado man driving a truck loaded with weapons made it to Washington, D.C., last week, he texted a frightening forecast of what could come with President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration.“I predict that within the next 12 days, many in our country will die,” wrote Cleveland Grover Meredith Jr., who had threatened to kill Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), according to federal court records.The QAnon believer reached his destination late Wednesday ready for battle.After learning that Vice President Mike Pence wasn’t going to stop the certification of Biden’s Electoral College victory, Meredith texted, “War time,” while en route to D.C.In later messages, he warned that he was “3.5 hours from target practice,” “Ready to remove several craniums from shoulders,” and “so ready to FK SOME TRAITORS UP.”“I ain’t goin to jail,” he wrote at one point. “[T]he morgue maybe, not jail.”Meredith brought with him a Glock covered in an American flag skin, an assault-style rifle with telescopic sight, high-capacity magazines and about 2,500 rounds of ammunition, including at least 320 “armor-piercing” rounds. He was arrested last Thursday after allegedly assaulting a pedestrian in Washington. Meredith left his vehicle and allegedly head-butted an individual, knocking him to the ground, beating him and fleeing the scene in his truck, according to an affidavit.
Kushner stopped Trump from joining Parler, Gab after Twitter ban: report - Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, stopped Trump from joining fringe social media platforms Parler and Gab after he was banned from Twitter, according to a report from CNN. Kushner and deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino are said to have gone against other aides, such as personnel chief Johnny McEntee, to get Trump not to join other social media platforms, an outside adviser and an administration official told CNN. Trump has now been banned from most major social media platforms. His favorite social media platform, Twitter, suspended him Friday for peddling claims of election fraud. Parler and Gab are platforms that have attracted some far-right users due to the companies’ lack of speech restrictions on their platforms. Gab and Parler are not available on Google Play or the Apple app store. Amazon cites death threats in push to keep Parler offline Glenn Beck compares tech's ban on Trump to Nazis putting 'Jews behind... Trump attempted to use the @POTUS Twitter account on Friday after his ban to announce that he would be making his own social media platform before Twitter quickly took down the tweet. Other Trump officials tried to give their Twitter accounts to Trump. His digital director Gary Coby changed his name to Donald Trump and tweeted that he would give Scavino the account password. Twitter suspended Coby’s account five minutes after the tweet. Mainstream social media platforms and companies have distanced themselves from Trump since the attack on the Capitol last Wednesday. Trump has not tried to publicly talk about the election fraud conspiracy theories since the insurrection, but did say he will not attend President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration next Wednesday.
Meet the “Conservative” Groups that Fueled a Violent Insurrection at the Capitol on January 6 - Pam Martens -- It is perhaps the height of irony that the groups behind the event that led to the worst battle in the U.S. Capitol building since the British attempted to burn the place down in 1814 (during the War of 1812) call themselves Peaceably Gather, Moms for America, and the Rule of Law Defense Fund. Those names stand right alongside a group that acknowledges what it expects to go down: WildProtest.com. Many of the web pages for the nine groups listed as Coalition Partners for the January 5th and 6th event have quietly disappeared from the Internet. Fortunately, the Internet Archives’ Wayback Machine has allowed us to reconstruct what these groups were doing and saying in the leadup to an event that has, thus far, resulted in dozens of serious injuries and the deaths of five people, including a Capitol Police officer who was beaten by the mob. The group that was officially in charge of the event, Women for America First, is Chaired by Amy Kremer who has a storied history with the Tea Party movement, following a career as a Delta Airlines flight attendant. After being a founding member of Tea Party Patriots, Kremer left to join Tea Party Express in 2009. Tea Party Express was a tentacle of the campaign PAC, Our Country Deserves Better. Kremer also made a failed attempt as a candidate for House Rep in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. NBC News reported that Kremer offered donors a chance to win an AR-15 assault rifle. Kremer’s current group, Women for America First, appears to be scooping up donations coming in to her own website as well as that of others. For example, WildProtest.com says it is “Brought to you by Stop The Steal and its Coalition Leaders.” #StoptheSteal links to a donation page for Kremer’s group, Women for America First. ABC News reports that while the January 6 demonstration “was publicly promoted as being organized by groups not directly tied to the president’s team, including ‘Women for America First’ and ‘Stop the Steal,’ behind the scenes White House staff and close allies of the president, including former Trump campaign staff, worked with the organizers to plan and promote the events on Wednesday that would ultimately erupt into the deadly storming of the Capitol, sources said.” StoptheSteal.com has been taken down but text on its page at the Wayback Machine says this: “We the People must take to the US Capitol lawn and steps and tell Congress #DoNotCertify on #JAN6! Congress cannot certify this fraudulent Electoral College. Our presence in Washington D.C. will let Members of Congress know that we stand with Rep. Mo Brooks and his colleagues in the House of Representatives who will bravely object to the certification of the Electoral College. We’re in need of at least one Senator. We’ve identified six (seven including Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville) that could join our cause. “On December 16, 2020, Stop the Steal movement founder, Ali Alexander, announced that the coalition would take to DC on January 6, 2021 to make sure Congress does not certify the botched Electoral College. “StopTheSteal.us is working closely, whipping the vote up, with patriots in the Congress. Visit WildProtest.com for event details.” In this WildProtest.com video, it assures its followers that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has invited them to the demonstration on January 6, which Trump did in a Tweet on December 19, writing: “Be there, will be wild!”
Democratic Member Accuses Colleagues Of Conducting "Surveillance" For Capitol Rioters - Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D., N.J.) has gone public with an extraordinary allegation against some of her colleagues that they conducted secret surveillance in a conspiracy with rioters at the Capitol. If true, those members could be criminally charged and expelled from the House. Conversely, if Sherrill has no such evidence, she could (and should) face a resolution of censure or resolution. Sherrill said in a Tuesday night Facebook live address to her constituents that she witnessed the surveillance personally.She said unidentified members of Congress “had groups coming through the Capitol” in “a reconnaissance for the next day.” Sherrill pledged to see those lawmakers “are held accountable, and if necessary, ensure that they don’t serve in Congress.”That is an unambiguous allegation of criminal conduct against colleagues. Once she names a member, she could also be the subject of a defamation action.This was a statement made off of the floor and not protected under the Speech and Debate Clause. It is coming from a member who was a former Navy pilot and a federal prosecutor.Thus far, Sherrill has not named names but pledged to seek accountability. The question is whether she will now identify members who she has accused of a criminal conspiracy. Indeed, one would think that she would have already gone to the FBI and filed a criminal complaint. Absent naming the members, any defamation action would have to be based on the highly difficult basis for a group libel claim of all Republican members. Such an action would be highly unlikely to succeed.
Dems demand details of ‘suspicious’ Capitol visitors day before attack - More than 30 House Democrats are demanding information from Capitol security officials about "suspicious" visitors at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 5 — a day before violent insurrectionists swarmed the building — that would only have been permitted entry by a member of Congress or a staffer."Many of the Members who signed this letter ... witnessed an extremely high number of outside groups in the complex on Tuesday, January 5,” wrote the lawmakers, led by Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), in a letter to the acting House and Senate sergeants-at-arms, as well as the acting head of the Capitol Police.The lawmakers, some of who "have served in the military and are trained to recognize suspicious activity," noted that Capitol tours have been prohibited since March as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and they said the tours were so unusual that they were reported to security on Jan. 5, ahead of the following day's violence."The visitors encountered by some of the Members of Congress on this letter appeared to be associated with the rally at the White House the following day," they wrote. "Members of the group that attacked the Capitol seemed to have an unusually detailed knowledge of the layout of the Capitol Complex. The presence of these groups within the Capitol Complex was indeed suspicious."They are asking the security officials to reveal whether any logbooks of visitors are available and if they include names of those admitted to the building by lawmakers. They also ask whether any law enforcement agencies have requested similar information and what limits Capitol security officials apply to visitors brought in by members.Sherrill first raised alarms Tuesday that some members of Congress may have provided "reconnaissance" tours to would-be insurrectionists. In a 13-minute Facebook video billed as an address to her constituents about the House's efforts to hold President Donald Trump accountable for inciting the riot, Sherrill included the allegation as part of a call to hold Trump's allies in Congress accountable as well. Sherrill did not identify the lawmakers she was referring to, how she was able to describe their activities as "reconnaissance" and how she knew they were connected to the riots that consumed the Capitol the following day. She told POLITICO on Wednesday that she's referred her information to authorities."We're requesting an investigation right now with certain agencies," she said.Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said he's aware of "a couple" names of colleagues who are being eyed as potentially giving tours to the would-be insurrectionists. But he said he wouldn't name them yet. "I'm going to wait to make sure we get verification," Ryan told a reporter at the Capitol Wednesday.
Jayapal Tests Positive for COVID-19 Following Lockdown at Capitol With Republican Lawmakers Who Cruelly and Selfishly Refused to Wear Masks - — United States Representative Pramila Jayapal (WA-07) received a positive COVID-19 test result tonight after being locked down in a secured room at the U.S Capitol where numerous Republican lawmakers recklessly refused to wear masks in the moments after the January 6 attack. Dr. Brian Monahan, the Attending Physician of the United States Congress, advised representatives and Congressional staff on Sunday that those in the secured room could have, “been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.” The duration in the room was multiple hours and several Republicans not only cruelly refused to wear a mask but mocked colleagues and staff who offered them one. “Too many Republicans have refused to take this pandemic and virus seriously, and in doing so, they endanger everyone around them. Only hours after President Trump incited a deadly assault on our Capitol, our country, and our democracy, many Republicans still refused to take the bare minimum COVID-19 precaution and simply wear a damn mask in a crowded room during a pandemic — creating a superspreader event on top of a domestic terrorist attack,” said Congresswoman Jayapal. “While I am isolating per the Capitol Physician’s instructions, I will continue to work to the best of my ability because the deep urgency of our many crises is paramount. I share the outrage and anger of my constituents and those across this country who have watched Donald Trump fail to combat this raging pandemic and refuse to take care of Americans who are suffering, dying, and devastated. Now, we have also watched him openly fuel and incite these insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol and our democracy on January 6—so I will not rest until I do everything in my power to remove this President from office.” “I am also calling for serious fines to be immediately levied on every single Member who refuses to wear a mask in the Capitol,” Jayapal continued. “Additionally, any Member who refuses to wear a mask should be immediately removed from the floor by the Sergeant at Arms. This is not a joke. Our lives and our livelihoods are at risk, and anyone who refuses to wear a mask should be fully held accountable for endangering our lives because of their selfish idiocy.” Jayapal began quarantining immediately after the attack on the U.S. Capitol, fearing and foreseeing exactly what would occur given the number of maskless lawmakers sitting in the same room as her and her colleagues. In an interview with The Cut on Thursday, she said, “I’m quarantining now because I am convinced that where we ended up, in the secured room — where there were over 100 people and many were Republicans not wearing masks — was a superspreader event.”
Congresswoman Lauren Boebert ‘was in stand-off on Capitol Hill after refusing bag search’ - Congresswoman Lauren Boebert reportedly went up against Capitol Hill police after refusing a bag check as she entered the Capitol building. Congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who has bragged about her desire to carry a weapon on Capital Hill is currently in a standoff with Capitol Police at the newly installed Metal Detectors outside the chamber doors," wrote CNN Washington correspondent Ryan Nobles on Twitter.The newly elected Colorado Congresswoman had pledged to carry a Glock handgun during her term in Washington, DC, saying, “I will carry my firearm in DC and in Congress,” in a video posted to Twitter last Sunday (10 January).In the wake of last week's pro-Trump breach on the Capitol Building, metal detectors were installed outside of the House chambers, which everyone, including members, must walk through in order to get to the floor. According to Nobels, Boebert was eventually let into the chamber, though "it was unclear from my vantage point if the Capitol Police searched her bag before she went in”.Huffington Post correspondent Matt Fuller also observed members of Congress expressing annoyance at the metal detectors.“Members are stacked up at a metal detector, trying to get on the floor right now,” he wrote. “Steve Womack was just yelling that he was ‘PHYSICALLY RESTRAINED’ from entering the floor.” "Just watched about 10 Republicans walk around the magnetometer," he continued."Didn’t see them all, but among the group was Ralph Northham and Scott Perry.Jeff Duncan bypassed the metal detector right before them." Meanwhile, Arizona Congresswoman Debbie Lesko lambasted the new security protocols on Twitter. "For members of Congress to enter the floor of the U.S. House, we now have to go through intense security measures, on top of the security we already go through. These new provisions include searches and being wanded like criminals. We now live in Pelosi’s communist America!”
CAPITOL RIOT: Utilities halt political donations in wake of Hill chaos -- Friday, January 15, 2021 --U.S. electric companies have joined other big American corporations in pausing or evaluating political contributions in the wake of last week's deadly riot at the Capitol by supporters of President Trump.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick turns down Presidential Medal of Freedom from Trump - New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has turned down the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Donald Trump. The NFL veteran, who is the only coach with six Super Bowl wins, had been set to get the award from the outgoing president on Thursday. But he said that following the violence at the US Capitol Building last week he could no longer accept it. “Recently, I was offered the opportunity to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom, which I was flattered by out of respect for what the honour represents and admiration for prior recipients,” said Mr Belichick in a statement. “Subsequently, the tragic events of last week occurred and the decision has been made not to move forward with the award.”
People at the US Capitol riot are being identified and losing their jobs - As images and social media posts of Wednesday's insurrection at the US Capitol circulate online, some of those who were present are being identified, and some have lost or left their jobs because of it. Navistar, a direct marketing company in Maryland, announced that an employee had been terminated after he was photographed wearing his company ID badge inside the breached Capitol building. "While we support all employees' right to peaceful, lawful exercise of free speech, any employee demonstrating dangerous conduct that endangers the health and safety of others will no longer have an employment opportunity with Navistar Direct Marketing," the company said in a statement provided to CNN.A Chicago real estate company has cut ties with one of its licensed agents following social media posts showing her presence at the US Capitol on Wednesday.Libby Andrews, 56, tells CNN that she was there to support the President, not violence, and that she learned of her firing through an email "blast." Andrews said she didn't know about the day's rioting and destruction until after returning to a nearby hotel where someone was showing images on social media. Andrews said she recalls seeing social media posts about "a skirmish with police" in DC, near where she was, and thought "that's not happening, that's fake news, that's fake news," she said.An Allentown, Pennsylvania, teacher has been "temporarily relieved" of his teaching duties" until his school district can complete a formal investigation in his alleged involvement at the protests. A Texas attorney named Paul Davis is no longer employed at his company, Goosehead Insurance, after social media posts appeared to show him talking about his participation in Wednesday's events. In one video, Davis says, "we're all trying to get into the Capitol to stop this."
Pompeo Tells Taxpayer-Funded News Outlet: "Time To Put Woke-ism To Sleep" - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged a major US government-funded news outlet to smash wokeness and censorship early this week at a moment Silicon Valley tech companies are going after pro-Trump media by taking down thousands of social media accounts. In a controversial address to Voice of America staff on Monday — controversial given some staff members objected to it being broadcast live on the VOA network — he defended Trump and his foreign policy at the taxpayer funded media organization. "Censorship, wokeness, political correctness, it all points in one direction – authoritarianism, cloaked as moral righteousness," Pompeo said. He then called out major US social media giants by name just days after Twitter and a host of other platforms moved to ban Trump permanently:"It’s similar to what we’re seeing at Twitter, and Facebook, and Apple, and on too many university campuses. This is not who we are, as Americans. It’s not what Voice of America should be. It’s time to put woke-ism to sleep.""The Trump Administration isn’t trying to politicize these institutions," Pompeo said. "We’re trying to de-politicize them."During the remarks Pompeo also chastized the VOA for having "lost its commitment to its founding mission" under past administrations. He said the broadcaster should focus on preserving and advancing a sense of 'American Exceptionalism' - however much of VOA's focus is "too often about demeaning America," he said. In response a group of staff members had attacked the speech as amounting to "propaganda" aired over taxpayer funded channels in a letter to VOA director Michal Pack. They attempted to prevent it from happening but to no avail.
Trump approves emergency declaration for Biden inauguration - Donald Trump has approved an emergency declaration for Washington DC and directed federal assistance to the nation’s capital ahead of president-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on 20 January. Mayor Muriel Bowser requested a federal emergency declaration on Sunday in the wake of a deadly insurrection attempt at the Capitol on 6 January, incited by the president and carried out by his supporters in an attempt to overturn results from the 2020 election. Federal law enforcement has warned that additional attacks at statehouses across the US and at the capital could follow. The Department of Homeland Security has also ordered the US Secret Service to begin “National Special Security Event” operations – preparations for the inauguration – on 13 January, moving up three days from the initial 16 January schedule. Acting DHS secretary Chad Wolf, who resigned on Monday, said he moved operations "in light of the events of the past week and the evolving national security landscape leading up to the inauguration” and at the guidance of Secret Service director James Murray. The federal emergency declaration will remain in effect until 24 January.
Soldiers Flow Into Capitol in Scene That Recalls Civil War - Soldiers took up positions in the U.S. Capitol in a scene reminiscent of Civil War deployments as Washington braced for the inauguration of a new president and a vote to impeach the current one. With more than 20,000 National Guard units summoned, the Capitol and its park-like campus resembled an armed camp, with rifle-bearing soldiers standing at arm’s length from one another, and heavy military trucks blocking roads. The city itself contended with a wide perimeter of closed streets. This comes after last week’s invasion of the Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump, which left five people dead. The U.S. Secret Service began what it calls National Special Security Event operations for the 2021 Inauguration on Wednesday, rather than the earlier scheduled date one day before the Jan. 20 inauguration of Democrat Joe Biden. “There’s a major security threat,” said D.C. Metropolitan Police Force Chief Robert Contee III. Asked about whether he had experienced such precautionary measures before, he replied, “Not at this level, no.” Contee said “somewhere upwards, beyond 20,000 members of the National Guard” are being called to take up positions in the city. Security steps could extend to the Metro subway system, Mayor Muriel Bowser said without supplying details. “We should ask D.C. residents to expect some impacts to transportation. That includes Metro,” Bowser said. “Our hotels are very concerned” and some may close for safety reasons, she added. Airbnb Inc. said it will cancel all reservations in the Washington area next week during the inauguration and will prohibit any new rentals from being made, moves designed to minimize the possibility of further attacks at the capital. Bowser has encouraged people to watch the inauguration from home instead of visiting. And in places usually teeming with tourists in less stressful times, scores of troops slept on the floor and in hallways of the Capitol. .
Deutsche, Signature to stop doing business with Trump and his companies -- Deutsche Bank AG and Signature Bank, two of Donald Trump’s favored lenders, are pulling away from the billionaire president in the wake of last week’s deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol. The German lender has decided not to conduct any further business with Trump and his company, said two people with knowledge of the matter, asking not to be identified because the deliberations were confidential. Trump owes the Frankfurt-based lender more than $300 million. Signature Bank, the New York lender that’s long catered to his family, is closing two personal accounts in which Trump held about $5.3 million, a spokesperson for the firm said on Monday. It’s also calling for the president to step aside before his term officially ends on Jan. 20. “We believe the appropriate action would be the resignation of the president of the United States, which is in the best interests of our nation and the American people,” the bank said in a separate statement on Monday. The lenders are following social media outlets and other companies in suspending ties with the president after he encouraged attendees at a rally last week to march on the Capitol, where they stormed the building and interrupted the certification of the electoral college vote. At least five people died in the mayhem and its immediate aftermath. “Yesterday was a dark day for America and our democracy,” Deutsche Bank Americas head Christiana Riley posted on LinkedIn a day after the riot. “We are proud of our Constitution and stand by those who seek to uphold it to ensure that the will of the people is upheld and a peaceful transition of power takes place.” Signature bank has served Trump and others in his orbit, including Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Michael Cohen. In 2011, the bank appointed Ivanka to its board, but she stepped down a couple of years later. The New York Times reported the cutting of ties earlier on Monday. “We have never before commented on any political matter and hope to never do so again,” Signature said in its statement. The bank will not do business in the future with any members of Congress who voted to disregard the electoral college, the spokesperson said.
Stripe, PayPal, and Shopify lead e-commerce's divorce from Trump - Silicon Valley's largest companies are rapidly distancing themselves from outgoing President Donald Trump, following last week's right wing domestic terrorist attack on the Capitol. Stripe over the weekend halted Trump's campaign account for violating policies that encourage violence, Stripe confirmed Monday morning in an email. Stripe is the latest technology firm to take action against Trump, following PayPal, Shopify and GoFundMe. The e-commerce bans mostly impact Trump's online stores, selling MAGA and Trump-related merchandise and performing general fundraising. In the case of PayPal, it also banned groups raising money to fund travel and protest expenses, such as Joy in Liberty. The e-commerce and payment bans come alongside a series of moves from other technology companies and social networks, including Twitter, Facebook, Snap, Pinterest and TikTok, which have cut off Trump mostly due to the use of those platforms to spread messaging and support organizing tied to protests against Joe Biden's election. Those protests turned violent last week, leading to swift action from the technology sites. The commerce-related bans put Trump, his campaign store and related protest groups in league with right wing groups that PayPal and the major card brands banned following deadly protests in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017.The Charlottesville incident gave rise to a website from Color of Change called bloodmoney.org, which calls out financial services companies that do business with hate groups. It also drew attention to the use of cryptocurrencies to fund fringe political sites.On Monday, founders of a blockchain firm called DreamReal invited Trump to a social network that uses its own token to fund and incentivize content creation and social networking. The Southern Poverty Law Center maintains a list of far-right organizations that use cryptocurrency to support fundraising.For the most part, mainstream financial services firms have not directly barred Trump-related transactions, though many have curtailed political donations. Among traditional financial institutions, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have paused political donations, with JPMorgan using that time to reconsider its political donation strategy.
Banking groups suspend political donations after D.C. riot — On the heels of big banks pausing political contributions, two financial services trade groups announced a similar policy Monday following riots on Capitol Hill that were incited by the comments of certain GOP lawmakers and President Trump. The Consumer Bankers Association and Mortgage Bankers Association said the groups were suspending donations to all candidates from their political action committees. Their decisions come as Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Ted Cruz, R-Texas, face mounting criticism for comments questioning the integrity of President-elect Joe Biden's victory and encouraging pro-Trump protesters who invaded the U.S. Capitol last week. However, unlike some companies withholding contributions for politicians that have advanced false conspiracy theories about the election, the financial trade groups said they will hold back contributions for all elected officials. “America's political environment has become too acrimonious and the events of last week were just the latest, most egregious example,” said Richard Hunt, president and CEO of the CBA, in a statement. The group has contributed predominantly to Republicans over the past decade. “In an effort to do our part to help temper the tenor of our nation's discourse and encourage our leaders to come together to find bipartisan solutions to our largest problems, we will immediately pause all contributions from our Political Action Committee,” Hunt said. Bill Killmer, Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president of legislative and political affairs and treasurer of the group’s PAC, said the events last week on Capitol Hill were deeply troubling. “The events which took place in Washington last week were unprecedented and deeply troubling,” Killmer said. “Elected officials have an obligation to protect our constitutional system of government. In light of those factors, MBA has decided to pause disbursements from its political action committee, MORPAC, and will undertake a careful review with our member leadership of our giving strategies for the 117th Congress.” Other groups, including the Independent Community Bankers of America, have not yet made a decision about halting contributions. A spokesperson for the American Bankers Association said the group was meeting with stakeholders to review its policy on political donations. “We continue to call on all elected officials to do everything in their power to support a peaceful transition of power,” the ABA spokesperson said. “As we do after every election, we will meet with all of our stakeholders in the coming weeks to review our political activities from the last campaign cycle before making any decisions about future plans. The troubling events of the last week will certainly be a consideration in those discussions." The decisions follow similar announcements over the weekend by Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. Citi will temporarily stop all political contributions in the current quarter. JPMorgan Chase is planning a six-month suspension to both Republicans and Democrats.
Wall Street’s Felon Banks Take a Short Holiday from Financing Political Campaigns - Pam Martens - Five-count felon JPMorgan Chase is shocked – shocked! – that corporate financing of “the people’s House” has led to corruption and instability in Washington. The Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase obviously did not see money as a corrupting influence because it has boosted the pay of its Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, to $31.5 million annually despite the fact that Dimon sat at the helm of this bank through its unprecedented five felony counts in a span of six years. The bank admitted to all five counts and got deferred prosecution agreements every single time from the U.S. Department of Justice. Not one of the myriad federal regulators of this bank demanded that Dimon step down as unfit to oversee a bank holding $2 trillion in depositors’ life savings as this six-year crime spree went unchecked.Now JPMorgan Chase, along with fellow felon banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, have announced that they will be suspending political donations – not permanently mind you, but just for a little while. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs announced six-month suspensions while Citigroup announced a three-month halt by its PAC. But as CNBC points out:“Of the six biggest U.S. banks, only Morgan Stanley made it clear that it will not make donations to members of Congress who opposed the Electoral College certification of Biden. The firm will continue contributions to other lawmakers, according to a person with knowledge of the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity.”Popular Information reported that it had obtained an internal memo from Citigroup that indicated Citigroup’s PAC would “not support candidates who do not respect the rule of law.”We asked Tom Mueller, author of the brilliant Crisis of Conscience: Whistleblowing in an Age of Fraud for his perspective on this gesture from a serial plunderer on Wall Street. His response: “I’m tickled pink to learn that Citi now officially endorses the rule of law, after decades of stomping all over it. When will they start applying it to their banking?”
What Democrats' control of Congress could mean for credit unions - When President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated on Jan. 20, Democrats will have something in Washington they haven’t had for a decade – a majority in the House and Senate, and the presidency. That’s likely to have a significant impact on credit union issues. Democrats only have a narrow margin – a 50-50 split between the two parties, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris expected to serve as the tie-breaker – but, “the big difference in control of the Senate is who controls the ability to bring matters onto the Senate floor and who controls the agenda of the committees, and that’s pretty consequential power,” said Ryan Donovan, chief advocacy officer at the Credit Union National Association. That means legislation that passed the House may be more likely to get consideration in the Senate than in recent years, as was the case with the HEROES Act and other packages that came forward during the last Congress. Along with confirmation hearings and possible impeachment proceedings, lawmakers’ focus in the early weeks of a Biden presidency is likely to be on providing additional coronavirus relief. But the massive government spending seen since the start of the pandemic could also force Congress to search for places to save money or bring in additional revenue. The good news for credit unions is that’s not likely to come at the cost of the industry’s tax exemption. “When the dust settles, policymakers are going to be looking for ways to make up some of our debt and potentially are going to look to roll back some of the Trump tax cuts,” said Carrie Hunt, executive vice president and general counsel at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions. “I don’t necessarily think that the credit union tax exemption is at risk at this point in time, but any time you open up the tax code you have to protect that.” The industry may face a tougher challenge at the state level, where lawmakers may reexamine their states' tax exemptions in order to fill budget gaps, particularly if there are laws on the books that require a balanced budget. While Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska have seen taxation fights in recent years, bigger battles could be ahead as states attempt to recover from the economic damage done by the pandemic. From a legislative perspective, the new Congress could tackle multiple issues that have been credit union priorities for several years but have stalled in the legislature. That includes a federal data security standard, due in part to renewed emphasis on the issue following the Solar Winds breach and its national security implications. While the topic has had some level of bipartisan support over the years, “it hasn’t been able to get over the line, so perhaps a unified government helps us get there,” said Donovan. Democrats may also look to revive legislation related to consumer oversight, noted Brian Turner, CEO of Meridian Economics. While that may not have a direct impact on most credit unions, it could hit some larger shops, particularly those that deal in areas such as business lending and investment banking, he said.
Credit unions argue pandemic bolsters case to ease membership rules - Some credit union advocates are arguing that the National Credit Union Administration needs to further ease field-of-membership rules to address issues highlighted by the coronavirus. Last year, a long legal battle over previous changes NCUA made to FOM requirements was settled after the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal in the case. But the Credit Union National Association and others are calling for requirements to be loosened even further to ensure the financial viability of credit unions, especially those that currently serve a narrow group of members and may be interested in expanding. “Field-of-membership changes have been impactful and beneficial,” Mike Schenk, chief economist for CUNA, said during a hearing regarding NCUA’s budget. “And more can and should be done.” In 2016, NCUA updated FOM requirements to expand how credit unions can define membership eligibility, including across broad rural areas that cross state lines or excluding core-based statistical areas. Credit unions hoping to serve rural districts across a broad geographic area can do so without having to seek permission from multiple state regulators. But Schenk argued that the pandemic demonstrated that this expansion of FOM wasn’t enough. The economic turmoil related to the outbreak further showed the heightened safety-and-soundness issues for credit unions with concentrations in specific industries. For example, the leisure and hospitality industry — including restaurants, hotels and theme parks — saw a near-immediate decline in employment once the coronavirus became widespread. The industry lost 8.3 million jobs in the two months that ended in April, according to a letter CUNA submitted about the budget. As local economies opened, the employment situation in the hospitality sector improved, but overall employment remained more than 20% lower than February’s pre-pandemic level, according to the letter. Schenk said during the regulator’s budget hearing late last year that CUNA hopes the regulator will use the COVID-19 crisis as a reference point for meaningful field-of-membership reform. But Sam Brownell, founder and CEO of CUCollaborate in Washington, D.C., said some of the burden of those narrow memberships falls on the institutions themselves as they often fail to take full advantage of expansion possibilities and are hesitant to branch out.
Global banks warn of market chaos if court rushes Libor exit - Some of the world’s biggest banks are urging a U.S. judge not to immediately terminate Libor after a group of borrowers filed suit claiming the benchmark was the work of a “price-fixing cartel.” Defendants in the case, including JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank, said in a November filing that an injunction abruptly ending the London interbank offered rate would wreak havoc on financial markets and undermine years of work reforming the reference rate. The plaintiffs, which include 27 consumer borrowers and credit card users, are also seeking monetary damages. Attorneys not involved in the case say the chances of an injunction are slim. Yet it underscores the risks and legal costs for banks that continue to prop up Libor, which still underpins hundreds of trillions of dollars of financial assets around the world. It also highlights the fragility of the discredited benchmark, which in theory could be halted by a single court decision. “You have to take it seriously because it would be a catastrophe if it was granted,” said Anne Beaumont, a partner at the law firm Friedman Kaplan Seiler & Adelman. “They’re likely going to continue to get sued like this as long as it’s there.” A San Francisco judge has said he will render a decision on the injunction without a hearing. The judge is scheduled Thursday to hear a request by the banks to transfer the case to Manhattan federal court. Libor is derived from a daily survey of bankers who estimate how much they would charge each other to borrow. It’s used to help determine the cost of borrowing around the world, from student loans and mortgages to interest rate swaps and collateralized loan obligations. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, regulators discovered that lenders had been manipulating the rates to their advantage, resulting in billions of dollars of fines. For over three years, policymakers around the globe have been developing new benchmarks to replace Libor by the end of 2021. In November, officials proposed anextensionfor some dollar Libor tenors until mid-2023, to help firms cope with the transition process. If the benchmark were to be immediately switched off, many derivatives contracts already contain contractual fallback language that would enable them to transition to an alternative rate, according to Y. Daphne Coelho-Adam, a counsel at Seward & Kissel who is not involved in the case. But hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds, loans and securitizations lack a clear replacement rate and could pose a threat to financial stability. Defendants in the case also include UBS Group, Citigroup, HSBC Holdings and ICE Benchmark Administration, which oversees the rate.
Capital One fined $290M for ‘willful’ anti-money-laundering failures - Capital One Financial has been hit with a $290 million penalty after admitting to the U.S. Treasury Department that it willfully violated anti-money laundering requirements between 2008 and 2014. The problems, which involved a unit that served cash-checking businesses and has since been shut down, were first revealed years ago. But documents released Friday by Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network contained new details, including Capital One’s admission that it failed to file suspicious activity reports even when it knew about criminal charges against specific customers. “The failures outlined in this enforcement action are egregious,” Fincen Director Kenneth Blanco said in a press release. “Capital One willfully disregarded its obligations under the law in a high-risk business unit.” A Capital One spokesperson said in an email that the McLean, Va.-based company is pleased to resolve the matter, calling it the last remaining government inquiry into a now-defunct business, and saying that the firm was fully reserved to pay the nine-digit penalty. “Capital One takes its anti-money laundering obligations very seriously,” the company spokesman said. “The bank has invested heavily in the enhancement of its AML program over the past several years under new AML leadership, and has worked closely with regulators and law enforcement to ensure our compliance processes and protocols are robust and thorough.” Capital One acquired the check cashing group in its 2006 purchase of New York-based North Fork Bank. The unit’s customers included dozens of check cashers in the New York and New Jersey areas, according to a document that Fincen made public on Friday. Services that the unit included check processing and armored car cash shipments. Capital One acknowledged errors involving currency transaction reports, which banks are required to file with the government when customers conduct cash transactions over $10,000. The $422 billion-asset admitted that it was negligent in failing to file the reports on roughly 50,000 transactions totaling more than $16 billion. Capital One also admitted that it failed to file suspicious activity reports in connection with Domenick Pucillo, who owned numerous check-cashing businesses in the New York area. Pucillo was described Friday by Fincen as a convicted member of the Genovese organized crime family and the fourth-largest customer of Capital One’s business unit that served check cashers. The bank learned in 2013 about potential criminal charges against Pucillo in New Jersey. Nonetheless, Capital One subsequently allowed Pucillo’s entities to conduct more than 20,000 transactions worth roughly $160 million through 23 deposit accounts, according to Fincen. Capital One shut down the commercial banking unit that served check-cashing businesses in 2014. Five years later, Pucillo pleaded guilty to conspiring to launder money in connection with loan sharking and illegal gambling proceeds that flowed through his Capital One accounts, Fincen stated.
Katie Porter off House banking panel- Report -- Rep. Katie Porter has lost her seat on the House Financial Services Committee after requesting to be seated first on two other committees, according to The Hill. The California Democrat, a former law professor known for her sharp questioning of executives and Trump administration officials, was turned down for a waiver to serve on the Financial Services Committee by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the paper reported Thursday. Porter had asked to be considered instead for spots on the Oversight and Reform Committee and the Natural Resources Committee. She was turned down for a waiver to serve on the Financial Services Committee though she received one last year. The banking panel is considered to be an "exclusive" committee; under caucus rules lawmakers are required to get a waiver if they also are serving on other committees. Porter is a champion of consumer rights known for her combative style and use of dry erase boards as visual aids. The former professor at the University of California, Irvine School of Law had served as California’s independent mortgage monitor from 2012 to 2014.
Pelosi Removes Katie Porter… Bringing Joy & Gratitude To Every Crooked Bankster On Wall Street - - Katie Porter has been a star since being elected to Congress in 2018. Several weeks ago, Porter was elected Deputy Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Having won two terms in Congress as a supporter of Medicare for All in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats, she is best known for holding corporate special interests accountable and advocating for stronger worker protections. Her star shined brightly as a fierce questioner of banksters and government bureaucrats who came before the House Financial Services Committee. On Thursday evening, I read that Pelosi has pushed her off the committee at the urging on the banksters, the Fed and Wall Street special interests. In a conversation with another member of the committee, an admirer of Porter’s, I was told that it was a combination of the Fed and Wall Street that demanded her removal. The member told me that “It is, in fact, a tragedy for that committee to lose someone like her. It’s a staff-run committee, with revolving-door staff… Also taking someone off a committee means they’re losing their committee seniority, which is very, very bad karma, since the whole system is built on that.” Hill reporter Sylvan Lane wrote that Pelosi (through the Steering Committee she controls) denied Porter a waiver to serve on 3 committees simultaneously and gave her seats on Oversight and Natural Resources and removed her from Financial Services. “Porter’s departure from the Financial Services panel will likely mean fewer headaches for the bank executives, financial regulators and industry advocates that often appear before the panel. Before joining Congress, Porter was a law professor at the University of California, Irvine and was appointed in 2012 by then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris to oversee the state’s $25 billion settlement with mortgage servicers involved in the 2007 financial crisis and housing market collapse. Porter is frequently compared by both supporters and critics to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), her former professor at Harvard Law School. Porter emphasized her legal experience and perspective as the only single mother of school-age children in the Democratic Caucus in a Jan. 6 letter to Pelosi asking for a waiver to rejoin the Financial Services panel. ‘From growing up in Iowa during the farm credit crisis, to raising young children as a single mother, I have lived through economic upheavals that limit many Americans from reaching or remaining in the middle class,’ Porter wrote. ‘Because of my work as a lawyer and consumer advocate, I also have a rigorous understanding of the 2008 financial crisis, which decimated family finances and helped cause the huge economic inequality that we face today,’ she added.”
Agencies may issue information request on AI adoption, Fed official says — The Federal Reserve and other banking regulators are considering a formal request for public feedback about the adoption of artificial intelligence in the financial services sector, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said Tuesday. If the agencies move forward with the request for information, it could be the first step toward an interagency policy on AI. Brainard said the RFI would accompany the Fed’s own efforts to explore how AI and machine learning can be used for bank supervision purposes. “To ensure that society benefits from the application of AI to financial services, we must understand the potential benefits and risks, and make clear our expectations for how the risks can be managed effectively by banks,” Brainard said in remarks for a symposium on AI hosted by the central bank. “Regulators must provide appropriate expectations and adjust those expectations as the use of AI in financial services and our understanding of its potential and risks evolve.” Financial institutions have started using AI for operational risk management purposes and for customer-facing applications, as well as fraud prevention efforts, Brainard said. Those functions could remake the way banks monitor suspicious activity, she added. “Machine learning-based fraud detection tools have the potential to parse through troves of data — both structured and unstructured — to identify suspicious activity with greater accuracy and speed, and potentially enable firms to respond in real time,” she said. AI could also be used to analyze alternative data for customers, Brainard said. She added that that could be particularly helpful to the segment of the population that is “credit invisible." But Brainard also acknowledged challenges in the widespread adoption of AI and machine learning in banking. If models are based on historical data that has racial bias baked in, they could “amplify rather than ameliorate racial gaps in access to credit” and lead to “digital redlining.” “It is our collective responsibility to ensure that as we innovate, we build appropriate guardrails and protections to prevent such bias and ensure that AI is designed to promote equitable outcomes,” she said. Brainard explained that there is also often a lack of transparency in how AI and machine learning processes work behind the scenes to accomplish tasks. The adoption of the technology in the financial services space should work to avoid a “one size fits all” explanation, she said. “To ensure that the model comports with fair-lending laws that prohibit discrimination, as well as the prohibition against unfair or deceptive practices, firms need to understand the basis on which a machine learning model determines creditworthiness,” she said.
OCC finalizes rule punishing banks that cut service to certain sectors — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized a rulemaking Thursday morning opposed by the industry that forces the largest banks to provide services to gun businesses and other controversial sectors if those businesses meet certain financial criteria. Largely unchanged from the November proposal, the final rule will require banks with more than $100 billion of assets to do business with firearm manufacturers, energy companies and other polarizing industries if they meet “quantitative, impartial, risk-based standards,” according to the regulation. The rule, set to go into effect in April 2021, was finalized just 10 days after its public comment period closed on Jan. 4 and only 55 days since first being proposed — a breakneck regulatory pace by any measure. While some unpopular industries and their advocates have cheered the OCC’s “fair access” proposal, banks have blasted the rule and its premise — that depository institutions have turned away certain sectors en masse for “political reasons” — for being arbitrary, capricious and having dubious legal backing. The OCC noted that it had received more than 35,000 comments; 4,200 comments in support of the proposal, and 31,290 opposed. ("This figure includes approximately 28,000 form letters collected by a single organization," the OCC wrote in a footnote of the rule.) The rule, issued on acting Comptroller Brian Brooks's last day at the agency, will likely be examined by a future comptroller appointed by the incoming Biden administration. Congressional Democrats might also seek to overturn the regulation through authority in the Congressional Review Act to repeal rules if lawmakers pass a resolution within a statutory time frame. “We are disappointed the acting comptroller chose to fast-track the final approval of this hastily conceived and poorly constructed rule on his last day in office,” Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, said in a press release. “The rule lacks both logic and legal basis, it ignores basic facts about how banking works, and it will undermine the safety and soundness of the banks to which it applies.”
OCC’s ‘fair access’ rule could be short-lived under Biden — A new rule that aims to bar large banks from declining services to unpopular industries is unlikely to survive during the Biden administration, analysts say. The “fair access” rule, finalized Thursday by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and set to take effect April 1, is meant to punish banks that deny services for nonfinancial reasons to certain disfavored sectors such as firearms sellers and oil producers. But critics of the rule, including banks, could have several paths to overhaul or abolish it, especially since Democrats are set to take control of both the executive and legislative branches. President-elect Joe Biden's pick to succeed acting Comptroller Brian Brooks could revamp the regulation, congressional Democrats could attempt to repeal it through the Congressional Review Act or banks could seek to block the rule through with litigation. "There’s little chance this rule would be upheld by a court challenge,” said Adam Levitin, a professor at Georgetown Law School. Brooks, who issued the rule on his last day at the agency, insists it is a nonpartisan way to fight discrimination against industries of all stripes that are treated unfairly by banks. But banking trade groups have blasted the regulation, calling it heavy-handed and saying the OCC moved too quickly without adequate public engageme’nt. “We are disappointed that the OCC has chosen to rush through this ill-advised rulemaking on the Acting Comptroller’s last day in office. In addition to short-circuiting the traditional rulemaking process and failing to take into account thoughtful comments from thousands of stakeholders, we believe it is a mistake for the OCC to mandate which businesses banks must service," said Hugh Carney, senior vice president of prudential regulation at the American Bankers Association. "Banks are in the best position to manage their risks and maintain their safety and soundness." Perhaps the most likely scenario for blocking or revising the rule, observers said, is that the Biden administration rapidly appoints a new acting comptroller who delays the effective date. Once a new Senate-confirmed comptroller is in place, he or should could reopen the rulemaking process. “We have seen agencies in the past postpone effective dates to buy more time to take the regulatory steps needed to change a pending regulation,”. “The issue is whether Team Biden gets its person in charge in time to delay the effective date,”
CFPB, OCC on collision course over who regulates fintechs - As the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency maintains its focus on granting bank charters to fintech companies, some experts have disrupted the debate about nontraditional bank owners by saying a different agency should be in charge. The OCC just last month approved LendingClub's bid to become the first online lender with a bank charter, and speculation is growing that acting Comptroller Brian Brooks may approve the controversial charter application by Figure Technologies just days before the end of the Trump administration. But a growing list of observers now argue that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is better suited to charter and regulate fintechs at the federal level, given the bureau's mission of preventing consumer harm. The new wrinkle sets up a potential turf war between the two agencies. A CFPB task force last week recommended that Congress give the CFPB — not the OCC — the authority to issue federal charters to financial technology companies engaged in lending, payments or remittances. “The OCC is ill suited to license fintechs,” said Dan Quan, managing partner at Banks Street Advisory and a former head of the CFPB's fintech office. “The biggest risk is really conduct [such as] consumer harm." Even though Brooks could depart the OCC soon, with President-elect Joe Biden set to take office on Jan. 20, the agency has shown no signs of abandoning its interest in fintech banks. On Tuesday, Brooks published an op-ed in the Financial Times suggesting that the government should consider allowing bank charters for "open-source software that manages deposit-taking, lending, or payments, if it doesn’t have officers or directors?" Some have raised the possibility that Brooks could try to issue a quick approval for Figure before Jan. 20. The San Francisco-based lender, which offers home loan refinances, home equity lines of credit and personal loans, is seeking a novel charter that would enable it to accept uninsured deposits — instead of insured deposits — and therefore evade certain regulatory requirements imposed on other banks. But the application has drawn swift opposition from traditional banks and is the subject of a lawsuit by state regulators. “There is no prohibition against the agency continuing to act on licensing applications,” an OCC spokesman said. “The agency continues to conduct its regular business.” But some experts suggest that policymakers may want to rethink letting the OCC oversee fintech banks due to the perception that the national bank regulator did not sufficiently hold banks responsible for consumer compliance in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. “Every company wants a level playing field," said Richard Gottlieb, a partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips. "If there were a fintech charter for the CFPB, it would establish guardrails that companies can operate in and would understand the full extent of what they can and cannot do.”
In a first, OCC grants federal charter to crypto firm — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted a national trust charter to the digital asset platform Anchorage, the first approval of its kind for a cryptocurrency company. The conditional approval for Anchorage Digital Bank, which up to now has operated as the state-chartered Anchorage Trust Co. based in South Dakota, will enable the company to more easily partner with banks that want to provide clients with custody services for their stablecoins and other cryptocurrency assets. Anchorage's federal trust charter does not require approval by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. since the company does not plan to accept deposits. The OCC has attempted to clarify in a series of interpretive letters that existing rules allow banks to provide custody services for cryptocurrency assets. But the charter approval offers more regulatory clarity for Anchorage and its partner banks, said Diogo Mónica, the president and a co-founder of Anchorage, which is owned by Anchor Labs Inc. A national trust charter “really puts us on par with other national banks from a regulatory perspective,” Mónica said in an interview. “Whenever we're doing business with another bank, they always have to look at our regulatory regime, understand the fiduciary responsibilities, understand the local state law, understand how the assets are treated, for them to understand if they can do business with us.” "We are on par with other national banks.” In a press release, the OCC said that Anchorage’s approval was subject to “the same rigorous review and standards applied to all charter applications.” “By bringing this applicant into the federal banking system, the bank and industry will benefit from the OCC’s extensive supervisory experience and expertise,” the agency said in the release. “At the same time, the Anchorage approval demonstrates that the national bank charters provided under the National Bank Act are broad and flexible enough to accommodate evolving approaches to financial services in the 21st century.” Under the operating agreement between the OCC and Anchorage Digital Bank, released Wednesday afternoon, the institution will be required to have $7 million in tier 1 capital when it launches. The bank will also be required to set aside at least $3 million in liquidity, or the equivalent of 180 days’ worth of operating expenses. Unlike traditional banks, national trusts do not require deposit insurance. The OCC has separately attempted to advance a special-purpose fintech charter as well as a charter specifically designed for payments companies. But no firm yet has obtained either of those charters, which have both drawn opposition from state regulators.
BankThink: Fintechs that get bank charters should be subject to CRA. Period – by Rob Nichols CEO, American Bankers Association, Jesse Van Tol. CEO, NCRC -- While consumer groups and the banking industry sometimes disagree, there’s one thing we do agree on: the need to stop the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s last-minute attempt allowing fintechs to become national banks without adhering to the full consumer protection and community reinvestment laws. In the latest move opening the banking door to fintechs, acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks has provided unbundled financial services to fintechs on a national scale by selecting the regulatory requirements that apply to them. That’s not the way the law works for traditional banking charters, and that’s not what generations of consumers have come to expect in their banking relationships. But last year, Brooks made clear in public comments that the OCC has the authority to grant a bank charter to a company that does not take deposits. Our organizations disagree. Brooks’ statements have encouraged firms like blockchain-based Figure Technologies to recently file a banking application with the OCC in order to conduct lending, payments and custody activities with the intent to take deposits, without becoming an insured depository institution. The OCC does not have the authority to do that. The Figure application is one of a recent series of applications from fintechs (including Paxos Trust, BitPay Trust, and Protego Trust) that seek to gather deposits but have an exemption from deposit insurance. The Figure application is fundamentally different, however, and has elevated charter arbitrage to a new level. It intends to accept deposits, but only for amounts greater than $250,000. And these deposits would be uninsured. Historically, the business of national banking has been a three-legged stool in that they had to: make loans, facilitate payments and take deposits. That interpretation was undisputed until 2016, when the OCC outlined the possibility of granting special-purpose charters to fintechs so long as they met at least one of those three activities. The OCC would also set a risky precedent for future applicants, who could take advantage of this detrimental reinterpretation of banking law. If approved as a national bank, fintechs like Figure could then apply for membership in the Federal Reserve system. Doing so would allow the firm to avoid state consumer protection requirements and be exempt from the Community Reinvestment Act , which requires banks to meet the needs of lower-income communities. The OCC’s authority and the obligations of a bank that receives a national charter are clear. A national bank must accept deposits and those deposits must be FDIC insured. An insured depository must comply with the Community Reinvestment Act. Without insured deposits and a clear CRA plan, this application — and others like it — must be denied. Rushing through an application of this magnitude, with this much at stake, is dangerous and ill-advised. We urge the OCC to deny this application, and look to Congress to define the scope, benefits and obligations of a banking charter.
Will PPP's uneven soft launch delay full rollout--- The Paycheck Protection Program’s soft launch received mixed reviews, creating uncertainty over when the portal will be open to all participating lenders. The Small Business Administration limited access on Monday to community development financial institutions, minority depository institutions and other mission-driven lenders, representing about a tenth of all the companies participating in the emergency loan program. While most larger participants had no major issues, smaller lenders said they had too little time to prepare their systems — the SBA didn’t release the application forms until late Friday and it was unclear what the portal would look like until the weekend — and as a result they couldn’t take full advantage of the head start. “It’s a challenging situation for us,” said Robert James II, director of strategic initiatives at the $48.4 million-asset Carver Financial, a Black-owned bank in Savannah, Ga., that has yet to make any loans under the restart. “It feels like we’ll just be swimming with the sharks once we get ourselves up to speed,” said Robert James II, CEO of Carver Financial in Savannah, Ga. “Our people were working over the weekend, but when you put out 130 pages or so of guidance and brand-new applications, there are still a lot of questions,” James said, adding that he expects Carver to start processing applications on Wednesday. “It feels like we’ll just be swimming with the sharks once we get ourselves up to speed,” James said. Struggles by lenders such as Carver have led some advocacy groups to request more time and concession for smaller PPP participants. And the SBA, which promised community financial institutions three days of exclusive portal access, has not yet confirmed that all lenders will be allowed to process applications on Thursday. The agency would only say in a Monday press release that wider participation would begin in “a few days.”
PPP forgiveness volume tops $100 billion- SBA - The Small Business Administration is reporting significant progress forgiving Paycheck Protection Program loans. The agency reported late Monday that it had forgiven more than 1.1 million PPP loans totaling more than $100 billion. At the time of its last update, on Nov. 22, the SBA had forgiven about 367,000 loans totaling $38.4 billion. The updated report comes as the SBA relaunches the portal for PPP applications. About 5.2 million PPP loans totaling $525 billion were approved between April 3 and Aug. 8, when its funding authority lapsed. Congress allocated another $284.5 billion as part of the stimulus package signed into law on Dec. 27. The SBA reopened its lending portal Monday to community development financial institutions, minority depositories and other mission-based lenders. Lenders with less than $1 billion of assets can access the portal on Friday; everyone else will be able to process applications on Tuesday. “SBA is continuing to work around the clock to forgive existing PPP loans and implement the next phase of this vital Program,” Administrator Jovita Carranza said in a press release. The pace of forgiveness may accelerate in coming weeks, after the SBA provides a streamlined process for PPP loans of $150,000 or less. The blanket forgiveness provision was included in the new stimulus law. The SBA issued guidance providing streamlined forgiveness for loans of $50,000 or less in October. Several PPP lenders, including the $9.8 billion-asset W.T.B. Financial in Spokane, Wash., and the $1.4 billion-asset Sunrise Banks in St. Paul, Minn., have suspended processing forgiveness applications for loans of $150,000 or less in anticipation of new guidance. At the same time, forgiveness for larger loans is proceeding smoothly, they added. “We did 5,500 loans in the first phase for $1.3 billion. Of that we’ve submitted over 2,000 loans and received payments on 1,656 loans,” W.T.B. Chief Operating Officer Jack Heath said. The PPP offers small businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic loans of up to $10 million. As part of the new stimulus law, existing borrowers than can demonstrate a $25% year-over-year reduction in gross receipts during one quarter in 2020 can qualify for a second-draw loan of up to $2 million. Proceeds spent on covered expenses, including employee compensation and benefits, mortgage interest, rent, utilities and personal protective equipment, are eligible for forgiveness.
SBA expanding PPP to small banks on Friday - The Small Business Administration is expected to grant more small lenders access to the Paycheck Protection Program portal on Friday. The SBA and the Treasury Department, which are administering the program, will allow participants with less than $1 billion of assets to process new and second draw applications in two days, an SBA spokesman said. All other lenders will gain access on Tuesday. A formal announcement with more details is expected shortly. The portal reopened on Monday, with initial access limited to community development financial institutions, minority depository institutions and other mission-based lenders, representing about a tenth of all participants. Bankers all all sizes are making preparations to process applications once they receive access to the portal. “We set up an email group for [existing] PPP customers and we’re contacting customers who did not take PPP in round one,” said Todd Nagel, CEO of the $1.7 billion-asset IncredibleBank in Wausau, Wis. The SBA had been vague about the date for expanded access, stating in a Monday press release that it would begin in “a few days.” Congress allocated $284.5 billion for a new round of PPP lending as part of the stimulus package that became law on Dec. 27. The funds include $15 billion for community financial institutions, designed to provide more funding to minority- and women-owned business and other underserved groups. In addition to new loans, the new version of PPP includes a provision allowing existing borrowers with 300 or fewer employees to apply for up to $2 million of fresh capital, if they can show a 25% reduction in revenue in at least one of last year's quarters. The SBA released two interim final regulations providing initial guidance on the renewed PPP on Jan. 6; the application forms were released two days later. The portal was opened for new borrowers on Monday, while applications for second draws will start to be accepted on Wednesday.
Lenders rush to get PPP loans to Black-owned businesses - Businesses owned by minorities and women got a head start this week in a new round of $284 billion funding, and early anecdotal evidence suggests stronger demand coming from these firms. The popular Paycheck Protection Program of forgivable loans for small businesses reopened Jan. 11 with a four-day window dedicated exclusively to community financial institutions that lend to groups unable to get funds from traditional banks. Borrowers aren’t limited to women and minorities, although these groups often make up a large customer base for microlenders. In Texas, the nonprofit PeopleFund said it has received interest from 600 small businesses, more than the approximately 400 PPP loans it made last year. Clearinghouse CDFI, a California-based lender, got about 160 applications seeking loans totaling $12 million through Thursday, compared with $7.5 million last year, Chief Executive Doug Bystry said. In Mississippi, Renaissance Community Loan Fund had 34 applications lined up by early this week, which CEO Kimberly LaRosa said showed strong interest. If the trend continues across the nation, it could go a long way to propping up up minority-owned businesses that saw severe declines last year. “Lenders are in a tough spot,” said Dan O’Malley, chief executive of Numerated Growth Technologies, a lending platform used by banks and community lenders. “They didn’t have much time to answer questions, look at the applications, think about the programs.” The SBA started reopening the program on Jan. 15 to traditional banks with with assets of $1 billion or less and is allowing all other banks to participate beginning Jan. 19. The loans are forgivable as long as long as 60% of the proceeds are used for payroll costs. “SBA, in consultation with Treasury, is working around the clock to fulfill this Congressional desire to see funds flowing to America’s small businesses as quickly as possible,” the agency said by email. Amid increasing COVID-19 infections and tighter regulations from local and state governments, there’s evidence of pent-up demand from small businesses seeking a second PPP loan. About 96% of the about 5,000 applications Numerated Growth Technologies received on its platform were submitted by people who had already received loans, O’Malley said. Only a handful were for businesses going through community financial institutions, he said. O’Malley expects to have between 50,000 to 100,000 loan applications in the queue ready to be sent to the SBA by the end of the week.
Early-pay providers get more clarity from CFPB (for now) -- As more U.S. workers tap new ways to spend their wages before payday, one question looms over the nascent early wage access industry: Are these on-demand products a form of credit? If so, the raft of young companies in the sector are lenders, and thereby subject to a range of federal and state regulations. If not, the providers should be able to operate with greater confidence that they will not run afoul of regulators.Two recent moves by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can be viewed as tentative steps toward resolving the regulatory uncertainty. In late November, the agency issued an advisory opinion that provides a road map for companies that want an assurance that they will not be deemed credit providers. And last week, the CFPB granted that imprimatur to one such company: San Jose, Calif.-based PayActiv. Two other early wage providers — FlexWage and Branch — told American Banker this week that they are interested in engaging with the CFPB. Firms that want a regulatory stamp of approval hope that it will give them an advantage in discussions with employers. Employers, which can partner with these companies to enable their workers to access wages that have been earned but not yet paid, are often interested in providing the service to employees whose tight finances lead to mismatches between when their bills are due and when their paychecks arrive. Some 78% of U.S. consumers said that they sometimes, usually or always lived paycheck to paycheck in a 2019 survey by Careerbuilder.com. Still, employers often express concern about the lack of regulatory certainty in the early-pay sector.“We view this as good news for the industry, and frankly for employers and employees,” said David Reidy, PayActiv’s chief legal officer. “The more clarity and certainty that we can get, the more we feel this will be a standard benefit offered to working people.” In 2019, PayActiv led an ultimately unsuccessful effort to persuade lawmakers in California to erect the nation’s first regulatory scheme for early wage access providers. Firms that met certain criteria, including a limit on the fees charged to employees, would have avoided being labeled as lenders. The CFPB recently granted that status to PayActiv, as long as its products remain within certain parameters. Under one model that got the agency’s blessing, PayActiv charges a $1 fee when employees access earned wages, with fees capped at $5 during each two-week pay period. The bureau said in its earlier advisory opinion that companies that charge “nominal” fees and meet certain additional standards can similarly seek its approval. While the CFPB’s moves mark a watershed for the industry, there are reasons to question how enduring and market-shaping they will ultimately be.
Visa and Plaid call off merger, ending DOJ litigation –- Visa and Plaid have terminated their merger and reached an agreement with the Department of Justice to dismiss the litigation brought against them when the deal raised antitrust questions. Even when the initial $5.3 billion transaction was announced, on Jan. 13, 2020, it fueled speculation that Visa was potentially seeking to eliminate potential competitors.As recently as last month, Visa lawyers continued to defend the company against the DOJ objections.“We are confident we would have prevailed in court as Plaid’s capabilities are complementary to Visa’s, not competitive,” Al Kelly, Visa's chairman and CEO, said in a press release Tuesday. “We believe the combination of Visa with Plaid would have delivered significant benefits, including greater innovation for developers, financial institutions and consumers."The concern about wiping out competition stemmed from Plaid's ability to develop payment apps and collect and decipher data, two things Visa also wants to emphasize.
Dissecting the Increase in Chapter 11 Filings - I just finished teaching an intensive one-week course at Cardozo School of Law designed to introduce students broadly to bankruptcy and reorganization. The course covered debt collection, consumer bankruptcy, large public-company reorganization, small business reorganization (including the SBRA), municipal bankruptcy, cannabis and bankruptcy, third-party releases, and even a bit on chapter 15. A theme throughout the week was changes in filings during the pandemic. To impress upon students that chapter 11 filings indeed are up, but that doesn't mean they are up everywhere across the country, I created this map. It details year-over-year increases or decreases in chapter 11 filings based on jurisdiction. I relied on data from the American Bankruptcy Institute / Epiq detailing total chapter 11 filings in 2019 and 2020. The map thus includes non-commercial chapter 11 filings. Historically, based on data from the Administrative Office of the United States Courts, a very small percentage of chapter 11 filings are non-business-debt filings--historically, about 6%. The more important caveat is that the map counts each filing as a case, even if the case is that of a "child" company filing with a "parent." See Slipster Bob Lawless's prior post about how parent/child filings can make it seem like commercial filings are rising much more than they actually are. Regardless, across the country, in 2020, chapter 11 filings generally are down. And where chapter 11 filings have increased, they seemingly have increased a lot.
NRA Bankruptcy - Adam Levitin - The National Rifle Association filed for bankruptcy in the Northern District of Texas (Dallas). The NRA's press release says that the purpose of the bankruptcy is to enable the NRA to change from being a New York corporation to a Texas corporation. This is critical to the NRA because the NY Attorney General, who regulates NY non-profits, is seeking to have the NRA dissolved for financial malfeasance. Notably, the NRA states that it "will propose a plan that provides for payment in full of all valid creditors’ claims. The Association expects to uphold commitments to employees, vendors, members, and other community stakeholders." In other words, the NRA's petition is not driven by financial exigencies, but to avoid the reach of the New York Attorney General. As the press release boasts, the NRA is "dumping New York." This is going to be one heck of an interesting case. There are already so many glaring issues (or should I say "targets"?): venue, good faith filing, disclosures, the automatic stay the trustee question, fiduciary duties to pursue claims against insiders, executory employment contracts, the fate of Wayne LaPierre, and the generally overlooked governance provisions of the Bankruptcy Code. I'll take quick aim at these all below. Right off the bat, there's a question of what the heck the NRA is doing filing in Dallas. The answer is that the NRA is engaged in one of the most blatant forum shopping maneuvers I've seen. The NRA is a New York non-profit corporation with its headquarters in Virginia. The NRA is claiming Dallas venue on the basis of an affiliate's previous filing in the district. In other words, venue is only proper for the NRA if the venue is proper for the affiliate.. A second immediate issue seems to be whether the NRA (and Sea Girt) filed in good faith. Every circuit including the 5th) has a good faith filing doctrine. The doctrine in a nutshell is that if a bankruptcy case does not have a "valid reorganizational purpose," it should be dismissed "for cause." Attempting to evade liability in litigation is not a "valid reorganizational purpose," and the NRA's press release seemed to me a version of the press release in SGL Carbon, the leading 3rd Circuit good faith filing doctrine case.
CBRA Op-Ed - Adam Levitin - I have an op-ed about the Consumer Bankruptcy Reform Act running on CNBC's site. Given that both collection moratoria and benefit extensions keep getting dribbled out in one to three month bites, we will definitely see an expiration of both as the pandemic wanes, and neither is sufficient for many households to address their arrearages. Consider this (not in the op-ed): there's now 4.78% of mortgages that are 90+ delinquent. That's the third-highest level since 1978. Part of that is that there are virtually no foreclosures happening, but a lot of it is that the delinquencies aren't being cured. Once a household runs 90+ delinquent, cure gets very difficult—the arrearage is just too big. We are going to be looking at a lot of foreclosures down the road. Add to that a rental delinquency rate somewhere between 18% (Census numbers) and 23% (Nat'l Multifamily Housing Council numbers), and we've got a real mess looming. Unfortunately, it won't just be an economic problem or a personal tragedy for many families. It will be a political problem that will have long-term ramifications, just like the 2008 foreclosure crisis.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.46%" -- Note: This is as of January 3rd. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.46% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased from 5.53% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.46% as of January 3, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ..."The share of loans in forbearance slightly declined for each investor category entering the new year, remaining within the narrow range observed for the last two months,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The data show that those homeowners who remain in forbearance are more likely to be in distress, with fewer continuing to make any payments and fewer exiting forbearance each month. Those borrowers who do exit are also more likely to require a modification to their ongoing repayment plans.” Fratantoni continued, “Surging COVID-19 cases caused economic activity to stall in December, with a monthly job loss for the first time since April, and with those jobs mostly concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector. We expect that this slowdown will prevent any rapid improvement in the forbearance numbers over the next few months.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has generally been trending down.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week from 0.06% to 0.07%."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of January 5th.From Black Knight: Slow Improvement in Forbearance Numbers ContinuesThe number of mortgages in active forbearance declined slightly once again this week, continuing the trend of very slow improvement seen in recent weeks. Total active forbearance plans are now down 1.5% from last month. This gradual rate of improvement sets the stage for a large number of plans to still be in active status when the first wave of forbearances begins to expire at the end of March....New plans edged higher thanks to an increase in restart activity, but overall, these numbers remain below pre-holiday levels. Forbearance starts were up 10,000 from last week but remain below the weekly average heading into the holidays by 22,000. With some 370,000 active plans up for review for extension/removal through the end of January, the potential for additional removals remains, although it’s expected to be more moderate than what had been seen early in the recovery....Overall, as of Jan. 12, 5.1% of all mortgages are in forbearance, which equates to 2.73 million. Altogether, they represent $545 billion in unpaid principal, a staggering number for the U.S. housing market. Of the homeowners in active forbearance, about 15% have remained current on their mortgage payments, and 83% have had their plans extended at some point since the pandemic began to impact the American economy last March.Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 57% YoY in November - From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: With increasing COVID cases across the country and resumption of tighter travel restrictions and stay‐at‐ home orders in the latter half of November, Las Vegas visitation came in at approximately 1.5M, down ‐18.4% MoM and ‐56.8% YoY.Total occupancy reached 39.3% for the month with weekend occupancy coming in at 55.4% and midweek occupancy at 32.4%.Average daily rates among open properties reached $94 (‐10.1% MoM, ‐30.3% YoY) while RevPAR came in at approx. $37, down ‐69% vs. Nov 2019. Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020. The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale). Convention traffic in November was down 100% compared to October 2019. And visitor traffic was down 57% YoY. The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 95% of rooms have now opened).
D.C. Mayor Keeps Restaurant Dining Rooms Closed Through The Inauguration - The mayor of Washington, D.C., has extended her suspension of indoor restaurant dining through next week’s presidential inauguration, citing “public safety and health concerns.” The ban on indoor seating was scheduled to expire this Friday at 5 a.m. Mayor Muriel Bowser issued a little-noticed executive directive late Monday night that extends the suspension by one week, until Jan. 22 at 5 a.m. Restaurants can continue to offer takeout, delivery and outdoor dining. Bowser has already appeal to Washingtonians to stay home during next week’s inaugural festivities, which have traditionally been a boon to local restaurants. The Democrat met Monday with Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, and Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, a fellow Democrat, about how to safeguard their respective jurisdictions during the swearing-in of Joe Biden as the nation’s 46th president. “Due to the unique circumstances surrounding the 59th Presidential Inauguration, including last week’s violent insurrection as well as the ongoing and deadly COVID-19 pandemic, we are taking the extraordinary step of encouraging Americans not to come to Washington, D.C. and to instead participate virtually,” the three elected officials said in a jointly issued statement. Sympathizers with last week’s riot and takeover of the U.S. Capitol have threatened in online postings to descend on Washington again this weekend, according to widespread media and government reports. Circumstances have prompted the Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington to postpone the city’s annual Winter Restaurant Week, which was slated to start on Jan. 18, until Jan. 25.
"655 People Have $4 Trillion In Wealth, But 200 Million Can't Cover A $1000 Expense" - The COVID pandemic has caused the gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us to grow larger than it ever has been before. Thanks to the hyperinflationary policies of the Federal Reserve and our politicians in Washington, stock prices have soared to unprecedented heights in recent months. This pushed the wealth of the uber-rich to dizzying heights, but for the rest of the country 2020 was an unmitigated nightmare. As I have discussed previously, one survey found that 2020 was a “personal financial disaster” for 55 percent of all Americans. More than 110,000 restaurants shut down permanently last year, Americans filed more than 70 million claims for unemployment benefits, and tens of millions are potentially facing eviction in 2021. But even though we are mired in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, those at the very top of the economic pyramid are laughing all the way to the bank. Earlier today, I came across a tweet from Sven Heinrich that really struck an emotional chord with me… 655 people have $4 trillion in wealth. 200 million can’t cover a $1000 expense.I certainly don’t have any problem with people gaining wealth by working extremely hard and making society a better place in the process.But most of the people at the very top of the economic pyramid only increased their wealth in 2020 because the powers that be decided to open up the firehoses and rain obscene amounts of money on them.That isn’t right. As a result of the deeply flawed policies that were implemented because of the COVID pandemic, the gap between “gains in financial assets and the health of the economy” was the largest ever recorded last year…But as stock market indexes staged a huge rebound from the lows seen in March when the pandemic first hit, the gap between the wealthy and the poor extended an already widening trend to historic proportions.A report via BofA Global Research published on Friday notes that a measure of the differential between gains in financial assets and the health of the economy hit a record at 6.3X in 2020.
Retail Sales decreased 0.7% in December -On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.7 percent from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.9 percent from December 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $540.9 billion, a decrease of 0.7 percent from the previous month, but 2.9 percent above December 2019. Total sales for the 12 months of 2020 were up 0.6 percent from 2019. ... The October 2020 to November 2020 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.4 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 1.2% in December.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis. The decrease in December was slightly above expectations, however sales in October and November were revised down.
BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in December, Core CPI Increased 0.1% --- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was driven by an 8.4-percent increase in the gasoline index, which accounted for more than 60 percent of the overall increase. The other components of the energy index were mixed, resulting in an increase of 4.0 percent for the month. The food index rose in December, as both the food at home and the food away from home indexes increased 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in the previous month. The indexes for apparel, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, personal care, and household furnishings and operations all rose in December. The indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and medical care were among those to decline over the month.The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending December, a slightly larger increase than the 1.2-percent rise reported for the period ending November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months, as it did in the periods ending October and November. Inflation was at expectations in December. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Consumer Price Index: December Core at 1.62% --The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.36%, up from 1.17% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.62%, down from 1.65% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was driven by an 8.4-percent increase in the gasoline index, which accounted for more than 60 percent of the overall increase. The other components of the energy index were mixed, resulting in an increase of 4.0 percent for the month. The food index rose in December, as both the food at home and the food away from home indexes increased 0.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in the previous month. The indexes for apparel, motor vehicleinsurance, new vehicles, personal care, and household furnishings and operations all rose in December. The indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and medical care were among those to decline over the month.The all items index rose 1.4 percent for the 12 months ending December, a slightly larger increase than the 1.2-percent rise reported for the period ending November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months, as it did in the periods ending October and November. The food index rose 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index fell 7.0 percent. Read more . The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
US Consumer Prices Rise For Seventh Straight Month, Shelter Inflation At Decade Lows - Today's inflation print is key. After significant signs of cost pressures (PMIs all signaling record or near record rising prices) and commodity prices breaking out from multi-year downtrends, analysts did expect a bump in CPI but nothing overly concerning. The final print actually matched expectations, rising 0.4% MoM (vs +0.2% MoM in November) pushingthe YoY print for the headline CPI up to +1.4%. This is the seventh straight rise in consumer prices..Under the hood, energy prices are soaring as used car costs are sliding... Food inflation is notable... The food at home index increased 3.9 percent over the past 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest increase was the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index which rose 4.6 percent as the beef index increased 5.3 percent. The smallest increases were for the cereals and bakery products and the fruits and vegetables indexes, which both increased 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The index for food away from home rose 3.9 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.0 percent and the index for full service meals rose 3.0 percent over the span. Energy inflation is mixed...Despite the monthly increase, the energy index fell 7.0 percent over the past 12 months. Energy commodity indexes fell sharply over the period, with the fuel oil index declining 20.0 percent and the gasoline index decreasing 15.2 percent. Energy service indexes rose over the last 12 months, with the index for natural gas increasing 4.1 percent and the index for electricity rising 2.2 percent.The index for used cars and trucks declined for the third consecutive month, falling 1.2 percent in December.
Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft in December - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in December. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for December here. Motor fuel was up 161% annualized in December. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.1%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.6%. Core PCE is for November and increased 1.4% year-over-year.Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis. Important Note: We will likely see some year-over-year jumps in some measures of inflation, since we saw some deflation in 2020. For example, we saw negative Month-to-month (MoM) core CPI and CPI readings in March, April and May 2020. Assuming positive readings in those months in 2021, the YoY change in CPI and core CPI will jump. We also saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April 2020. Ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!
U.S. producer prices increase moderately in December (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices rose moderately in December, suggesting that an anticipated pick up in inflation in the coming months will probably not be worrisome. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Friday. In the 12 months through December, the PPI rose 0.8%, matching November’s gain. A 1.1% increase in the cost of goods accounted for last month’s rise in the PPI. Prices for services dipped 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 0.4% in December and gaining 0.8% on a year-on-year basis. The government this week reported solid increases in both consumer and import prices in December. Economists expect inflation to accelerate in the months ahead as the government provides more money to stimulate the economy, and weak prices early in the coronavirus crisis fall out of the calculations. But any inflation spark will probably be temporary against the backdrop of ample slack in the labor market, with at least 18.4 million Americans on unemployment benefits. The Federal Reserve has signaled it would tolerate higher prices after inflation persistently undershot the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices increased 0.4%. The so-called core PPI inched up 0.1% in November. In the 12 months through November, the core PPI gained 1.1% after rising 0.9% in November. Energy prices jumped 5.5% last month after advancing 1.2% in November. Wholesale food prices slipped 0.1%. Core goods prices increased 0.5%. Margins for final demand trade services, which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, dropped 0.8%. Healthcare costs edged up 0.1%, while portfolio fees jumped 1.7%. Those healthcare and portfolio management costs feed into the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
Industrial Production Increased 1.6 Percent in December; 3.3% Below Pre-Crisis Level -From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Industrial production advanced 1.6 percent in December, with gains of 0.9 percent for manufacturing, 1.6 percent for mining, and 6.2 percent for utilities. The increase for utilities resulted from a rebound in demand for heating after unseasonably warm weather in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 8.4 percent. At 105.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 3.6 percent lower than it was a year earlier and 3.3 percent below its pre-pandemic February reading. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 1.1 percentage points in December to 74.5 percent, a rate that is 5.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020.Capacity utilization at 74.5% is 5.3% below the average from 1972 to 2019. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in December to 105.7. This is 3.3% below the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations, and industrial production in October and November were revised up slightly.
U.S. business inventories rise in November (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories increased in November, supporting expectations that inventory investment was likely the main driver of economic growth in the fourth quarter. Business inventories rose 0.5% in November after increasing 0.8% in October, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. November’s increase was in line with economists’ expectations. Inventories fell 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in November. Retail inventories rose 0.7% in November as estimated in an advance report published last month. That followed a 0.9% increase in October. Motor vehicle inventories jumped 1.9% instead of 1.5% as previously reported. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, gained 0.2% instead of 0.3% as estimated last month. Businesses are replenishing inventories after they were drawn down early in the pandemic. That has helped to underpin manufacturing. Inventory accumulation is expected to blunt some of the drag on GDP from a widening trade deficit, which hit a more than 14-year high in November. The economy grew at a historic 33.4% pace in the third quarter after shrinking at a 31.4% rate in the April-June period, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. Inventories added to GDP growth in the third quarter after being a drag for five straight quarters. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter are mostly below a 5% rate because of the outbreak in coronavirus infections and the largely expired fiscal stimulus. Wholesale inventories were unchanged in November. Stocks at manufacturers rose 0.7%. Business sales slipped 0.1% in November after accelerating 0.9% in October. At November’s sales pace, it would take 1.32 months for businesses to clear shelves, unchanged from October.
Small Business Optimism Decreased in December - From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): December 2020 Report:The Optimism Index declined to 95.9 in December, down 5.5. points from November. Nine of the 10 Index components declined and one improved. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased 8 points to 82. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined 24 points to a net negative 16 percent. The percent of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand decreased 4 points to 8 percent. Sales expectations over the next three months declined 14 points to a net negative 4 percent..Covid-19 is spreading at record rates and hospitals are at capacity in many states. Several vaccines were proven effective in trials, approved for emergency use, and now being distributed. But business restrictions and consumer spending shifts are still firmly in place and will be until the spread of Covid-19 is largely curbed.This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.The index declined in December.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 965,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 965,000, an increase of 181,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 787,000 to 784,000. The 4-week moving average was 834,250, an increase of 18,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,750 from 818,750 to 816,000. This does not include the 284,470 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 161,159 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 834,250. The previous week was revised down. The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week). At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined. Regular state continued claims increased to 5,271,000 (SA) from 5,072,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note: There are an additional 7,442,888 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,383,387 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. An additional 4,166,261 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,491,413 the previous week.
BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 6.5 Million in November - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary:The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.0 million while total separations increased to 5.4 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.4 percent.The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November, the most recent employment report was for December. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in November to 6.527 million from 6.632 million in October. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 3.9% year-over-year. Note that job openings were declining a year ago prior to the pandemic. Quits were down 10.5% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Lordstown Motors says it has 100,000+ pre-orders for electric truck - Lordstown Motors said it has surpassed 100,000 non-binding production reservations from fleets for its all-electric Endurance pickup truck. The Youngstown, Ohio-area manufacturer said the average order size is nearly 600 vehicles per fleet."Receiving 100,000 pre-orders from commercial fleets for a truck like the Endurance is unprecedented in automotive history. Adding in the interest we have from federal, state, municipal and military fleets on top of that, I think you can see why we feel that we are about to revolutionize the pickup truck industry," said Steve Burns, CEO of Lordstown Motors, in a statement.The company said the Endurance will have a range of 250 miles, the equivalent of 600 horsepower and can tow up to 7,500 lbs. Production on the $45,000 truck (after federal rebate) is expected to begin in September.In November, Lordstown Motors said it expects to increase its internal headcount to 1,500 employees by the end of 2021, and opened a satellite research and development center in Farmington Hills, Michigan. The company also said in November that Construction has begun on a 700,000-square-foot battery pack and hub motor production facility at Lordstown Motors’ 6.2 million square foot Ohio headquarters. Completion of the first stage of this facility is expected in time for start of production of the Endurance in 2021.
Ford’s Louisville Assembly Plant shut down due to part global semiconductor shortage - Ford abruptly announced last week that it was idling its Louisville Assembly Plant and its 3,900 hourly workers for one week due to a shortage of semiconductors used in a brake control module in the Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair SUVs produced at the plant. Because the shutdown is caused by a parts shortage, Ford is required to pay workers 75 percent of their wages, according to the terms of the 2019 contract.This is the first significant shutdown of a Ford plant in the United States since the restart of production in May. It is noteworthy that the plant shutdown came not in response to the spread of covid, but due to a lack of parts. Kentucky is experiencing a surge of new cases in the new year, with the seven-day moving average nearly doubling from 2,031 on December 29 to 3,829 this past Sunday. Positivity rates surged in the state to 26.4 percent last week, up from 18.4 percent the week before. Jefferson County, where Louisville is located, had 4,140 new cases and 59 new deaths last week alone. According to an Associated Press report, other major manufacturers, such as Daimler AG, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, and Volkswagen have also announced production delays and shutdowns in China, North America, and Europe due to the semiconductor shortage, which is being felt worldwide. Impacted plants include Fiat Chrysler’s plant in Toluca, Mexico, which produces the Jeep Compass, and its Brampton, Ontario plant, which manufactures the Dodge Charger, Dodge Challenger, and Chrysler 300 models. Production of Toyota’s full-size pickup truck at its plant in San Antonio has been affected, as has Nissan’s production in Japan, with potential reverberations for its US-based production. Some of the automakers are diverting the use of semiconductors to production of better selling vehicles, usually in the SUV and truck segment, the Associated Press added.The shortage appears to be related to sanctions imposed on Chinese companies by the Trump administration in July, as well as a massive blaze at the Japanese chip plant Asahi Kasei Microdevices Corp (AKM) this past October, according to Reuters, which also pointed to increased demand due to the rise of telework during the pandemic.
New York City Proposes Bill to Regulate Algorithms Used in Hiring - Jerri-Lynn Scofield --This morning another New York story has caught my eye, after the post I wrote yesterday on the odious Andrew Cuomo’s proposals to increase sin taxes – a notoriously inefficient and regressive form of taxation – to make up some of the cavernous COVID-19 budget shortfalls. Today, my focus is on reporting featured in Wired.com, New York City Proposes Regulating Algorithms Used in Hiring,:The New York City Council is the source of this proposalThis bill would regulate the use of automated employment decision tools, which, for the purposes of this bill, encompass certain systems that use algorithmic methodologies to filter candidates for hire or to make decisions regarding any other term, condition or privilege of employment. This bill would prohibit the sale of such tools if they were not the subject of an audit for bias in the past year prior to sale, were not sold with a yearly bias audit service at no additional cost, and were not accompanied by a notice that the tool is subject to the provisions of this bill. This bill would also require any person who uses automated employment assessment tools for hiring and other employment purposes to disclose to candidates, within 30 days, when such tools were used to assess their candidacy for employment, and the job qualifications or characteristics for which the tool was used to screen. Violations of the provisions of the bill would incur a penalty..The Wired piece usefully reminds us:In 1964, the Civil Rights Act barred the humans who made hiring decisions from discriminating on the basis of sex or race. Now, software often contributes to those hiring decisions, helping managers screen résumés or interpret video interviews.That worries some tech experts and civil rights groups, who cite evidence that algorithms can replicate or magnify biases shown by people. In 2018, Reuters reported that Amazon scrapped a tool that filtered résumés based on past hiring patterns because it discriminated against women. Let me restate that: just because one outsources part of decision-making to a supposedly ‘neutral’ technological process, does not mean one has successfully eliminated the embedded biases that are the reason d’être for anti-discrimination frameworks in the first instance.
Hundreds of workplace outbreaks of COVID-19 along US West Coast - Cases of COVID-19 are surging across the United States, resulting in thousands of deaths and hospitalizations every day. On Friday, new single-day records of over 300,000 new cases and 4,100 deaths were reported in the United States. The situation is particularly dire in the state of California, where medical workers are now being forced to ration care due to understaffing and insufficient capacity. Hospital staff members enter an elevator with the body of a COVID-19 victim on a gurney at St. Jude Medical Center in Fullerton, Calif. (Image credit: Jae Hong/AP) The mainstream media and politicians are making their best efforts to argue that the rampant spread of the virus falls on the shoulders of individuals, who they claim have been “irresponsible” and not following physical distancing and mask mandates. However, this narrative ignores the spread of the virus throughout large workplaces and businesses, where workers have been forced back into unsafe conditions to ensure the continuation of capitalist profit making. Data collected from three West Coast states—California, Oregon and Washington—provide a snapshot of this reality. In Los Angeles County, the Department of Public Health lists 511 active outbreaks at workplaces, directly connected to the infections of 10,000 employees. This data, according to Los Angeles magazine, “accounts only for commercial settings that are not schools, homeless shelters, health care facilities, jails, or related categories—though certainly those institutions are also themselves workplaces.” Further, it only shows cases that are linked through contact tracing within a 14-day period and which are reported by businesses. The workers infected labor in some of the lowest-paid and least safe conditions within the service, logistics and food processing industries:
- Seven Costco warehouses have at least 15 infected workers, with one in Culver City reporting 71 active cases.
- Over 215 workers are infected across multiple Target store locations.
- Four Amazon warehouses reported nearly 200 cases.
- A single 99 Cents Only Stores location reports 113 confirmed cases.
- A logistics warehouse for retail brand Fashion Nova reports 203 cases.
- One hundred and fifty-one cases were detected at a FedEx Ground center in Pacoima, with 505 total cases across nine FedEx facilities.
There also have been infections recently among workers at McDonald’s, Chick-Fil-A, In-N-Out Burger, Best Buy, Nordstrom, Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Apple stores, CVS and a long list of other businesses. Even cast and crew members in the media production industry have confronted the spread of the virus with hotspots at Warner Brothers, NBC, Netflix and CBS.
Health Workers Unions See Surge in Interest Amid Covid - - The nurses at Mission Hospital in Asheville, North Carolina, declared on March 6 — by filing the official paperwork — that they were ready to vote on the prospect of joining a national union. At the time, they were motivated by the desire for more nurses and support staff, and to have a voice in hospital decisions.A week later, as the covid-19 pandemic bore down on the state, the effort was put on hold, and everyone scrambled to respond to the coronavirus. But the nurses’ long-standing concerns only became heightened during the crisis, and new issues they’d never considered suddenly became urgent problems.Staffers struggled to find masks and other protective equipment, said nurses interviewed for this story. The hospital discouraged them from wearing masks one day and required masks 10 days later. The staff wasn’t consistently tested for covid and often not even notified when exposed to covid-positive patients. According to the nurses and a review of safety complaints made to federal regulators, the concerns persisted for months. And some nurses said the situation fueled doubts about whether hospital executives were prioritizing staff and patients, or the bottom line.By the time the nurses held their election in September — six months after they had filed paperwork to do so — 70% voted to unionize. In a historically anti-union state with right-to-work laws and the second-least unionized workforce in the country, that margin of victory is a significant feat, said academic experts who study labor movements. That it occurred during the pandemic is no coincidence.For months now, front-line health workers across the country have faced a perpetual lack of personal protective equipment, or PPE, and inconsistent safety measures. Studies show they’remore likely to be infected by the coronavirus than the general population, and hundreds have died, according to reporting by KHN and The Guardian.Many workers say employers and government systems that are meant to protect them have failed. Research shows that health facilities with unions have better patient outcomes and are more likely to have inspections that can find and correct workplace hazards. One study found New York nursing homes with unionized workers had lower covid mortality rates, as well as better access to PPE and stronger infection control measures, than nonunion facilities.
Texas faces nearly $1 billion budget hole heading into legislative session (KWTX) - Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said Monday that Texas is about $946 million in the red for the current fiscal year ending in August. He cited “steep declines” in sales tax revenues, as well as decreased revenues from oil and natural gas extraction, because of the pandemic. However, he said the declines were not as steep as they could have been. Previously, in July, Hegar had projected a $4.6 billion deficit for the current biennium. Even with the lower-than-expected budget deficit, some area nonprofits fear their essential programs could be on the chopping block. “The money has to come from somewhere,” said Misty Biddick, executive director of Aware Central Texas, a nonprofit that works to prevent child abuse and family violence. “We always fear that it’s going to come from funding to some of the programs that assist our clients,” she said. Biddick said the pandemic has increased the need for state funding to her organization. State lawmakers meet Tuesday in Austin for the beginning of the 87th Texas Legislature. They will have nearly $113 billion to work with as they set the budget for the next two years. That is a slight decrease from the amount they had last session.
How the Legislature Might Address the Less-Than-Dire Budget Shortfall – Texas Monthly - After the collapse of oil prices and the economic contractions following the spread of the coronavirus early last spring, Governor Greg Abbott and other state leaders worried about a state budget deficit as large as $4.6 billion. On Monday, ahead of the convening of the Texas Legislature, comptroller Glenn Hegar offered a sunnier, though still concerning, picture. For the current budget cycle, which ends in August, the Republican projected that revenues will fall short by a more modest $1 billion, spurred by a rebound in consumer spending and the oil and gas industry. And for the next budget period, which begins in August and runs through August 2023, the state is estimated to have $6.3 billion less than the previous cycle, though budget-writers had unusually healthy tax revenues to work with when the Lege met in 2019. All told, Hegar predicted that the Legislature will have about $113 billion in general revenue discretionary funds available for the 2022–2023 budget. While the state avoided a fiscal bloodbath, Hegar said the Legislature will still face “some difficult choices to balance the budget.” To do so, lawmakers can tap into the state’s $10.5 billion rainy day fund, cut spending, plug tax loopholes, or look for alternative sources of revenue, such as taxes from legalized marijuana or gambling. If the revenue estimate had been worse, cuts in spending for schools or for services for the poor would have been inevitable, and opening new tax sources might have been on the table. Given the less-than-dire shortfall, there are two areas the Legislature will likely focus on instead. First, lawmakers will have to decide whether to continue to fully fund the property tax cuts and increased school funding package that Governor Greg Abbott signed into law in 2019. Flogged by Abbott and other top Republicans as part of a “kumbaya” session that delivered on pocketbook issues, the reforms had no ongoing source of revenue to support them and instead were supposed to be funded by increased economic growth.At the time it was passed, some predicted that the cost of the program would increase from $11.6 billon to about $13.6 billion for the upcoming biennium. The pandemic-related decline in school attendance means that the cost may be smaller. But the still-sputtering economy may make it difficult to deliver on the promise of sending more money from the state to school districts.When asked whether money would be available to pay for the full property tax cuts and increases in school spending, Hegar demurred. “As long as the state economy continues to grow, that enables the Legislature more flexibility to meeting the obligations they have agreed to in the past,” he said. In other words, he only counts the pennies coming in. It is up to the Legislature to decide how to spend them.
Cuomo Embraces New Sin Taxes to Replace Some COVID-19 Fiscal Shortfalls; Full Legalization of On-Line Betting and Adult Cannabis Use to Feature in 2021 State of the State Proposals - Jerri-Lynn Scofield - New York governor announced last week that New York would be the latest state to join the sin tax party and will propose legislation to allow on-line sports betting and fully legalize cannabis for adult use. These measures are expected to bring in revenues to replace some of the shortfalls in the state’s coffers depleted by the COVID-19 pandemic. New York found itself increasingly alone in its prohibitionist policies. Cuomo has previously resisted allowing on-line betting in New York snd his statement announcing the proposed on-line betting change represents a reversal in policy, made in response to policies already implemented by the adjacent states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced legislation to authorize mobile sports wagering as part of the 2021 State of the State. Under Governor Cuomo’s proposal, the New York State Gaming Commission will issue a request for proposals to select and license a sports operator or platform to offer mobile sports wagering in New York. This operator or platform must have a partnership with one of the existing licensed commercial casinos. The Commission will also require any entity operating mobile wagering apps include safeguards against abuses and addiction. “At a time when New York faces a historic budget deficit due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current online sports wagering structure incentivizes a large segment of New York residents to travel out of state to make online sports wagers or continue to patronize black markets,” Governor Cuomo said. “New York has the potential to be the largest sports wagering market in the United States, and by legalizing online sports betting we aim to keep millions of dollars in revenue here at home, which will only strengthen our ability to rebuild from the COVID-19 crisis.” As for cannabis, recent years have seen the state move cautiously towards decriminalzation, while other states – such as Colorado – had opted for full legalization. By taking the final step, New York too will be able to earn tax revenues by taxing sales of legalized cannabis. To be fair, Cuomo has been unable to win enough legislative votes to approve cannabis measures he made in earlier budget proposals, according to a report in Marijuana Moment, New York Launches Process For Destroying Marijuana Conviction Records. Cuomo has not been deterred and and will again pursue full cannabis legalization as part of his latest budget proposal: Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced a proposal to legalize and create a comprehensive system to oversee and regulate cannabis in New York as part of the 2021 State of the State. Under the Governor’s proposal, a new Office of Cannabis Management would be created to oversee the new adult-use program, as well as the State’s existing medical and cannabinoid hemp programs. Additionally, an equitable structure for the adult-use market will be created by offering licensing opportunities and assistance to entrepreneurs in communities of color who have been disproportionately impacted by the war on drugs. Once fully implemented, legalization is expected to generate more than $300 million in tax revenue.
Re-Locations: Tennessee Claims #1 Spot For First Time Ever; Texas In Top 2 For Fifth Straight Year -- U-Haul's Annual Report -- January 9, 2020 --Re-locations: tracked here. Annual U-Haul report (2020 data):
- Tennessee: largest net gain; #1 in 2020; up from #12 the previous year;
- Texas: for three consecutive years, Texas had the largest net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks before Florida displaced it for the number one spot last year;
- Florida: #3 in 2020 (#1 in 2019)
- Ohio, #4 (7)
- Arizona, #5 (20)
- Colorado, #6 (42)
- Missouri, #7 (13)
- Nevada, #8 (24)
- North Carolina, #9 (3)
- Georgia, #10 (16)
On same evening I get the story above, sent to me by a reader, my Carpe Diemsubscription sent me this: United Van Lines' top ten inbound vs top 10 outbound US states in 2020. I haven't looked at this yet. Let's see how it compares with the U-Haul report above. Top ten inbound:
- Idaho
- South Carolina
- Oregon
- South Dakota
- Arizona
- North Caroline
- Tennessee
- Alabama
- Florida
- Arkansas
This jumps out at me:
- on the U-Haul list, Texas is consistently in the top two (for the past five years)
- on the United Van Lines list, Texas is not even among the top ten
- this suggests to me that lower income -- those who cannot afford a professional mover -- are larger group of those moving to Texas than to other states, like Tennessee or Florida.
Georgia Senate GOP leader has COVID-19; half of House skip test - Two days into the 2021 session and the General Assembly is already having COVID-19 problems. The session opened Monday. On Tuesday, Senate Republican Leader Mike Dugan said he tested positive for COVID-19 and was isolating at home. Meanwhile, House Speaker David Ralston said nearly half of his chamber did not take the coronavirus test as required on Monday. Ralston chastised a whopping 41% of his 180 members for skipping the test as the chamber convened Tuesday. All Georgia General Assembly members are required to be tested twice a week, and Monday was the first required test. “Imagine how I felt when I came in today and I found that, yesterday, 74 members of this body did not get tested and were present in the building,” the Blue Ridge Republican told lawmakers. He said that includes members of both parties. “We’re doing everything we possibly can to keep you safe,” Ralston said. “But it takes a little bit of initiative on your part in following the rules. Because if you don’t want to keep yourself safe, I want you to keep your neighbor safe and me safe and those around you safe.” Senate staff said nearly all senators were tested Monday, but there were some who did not take a test. Exact figures were not immediately available. Dugan’s results came early Tuesday after taking the required COVID-19 test. He said he was also tested Thursday, and those results were negative. “My symptoms are minor and I plan to follow the guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and isolate at home until the virus passes,” he said in a statement on Twitter. He said he was tested Monday before experiencing any symptoms. Dugan is one of two state senators who received positive results after taking COVID-19 tests on Monday, officials said. The senators weren’t identified, but Dugan made his test results public. McMichen said he would not comment on the health of House members. The General Assembly exempted itself and its offices from the Open Records Act, which cities, counties and most state agencies are legally bound to follow. Rep. Roger Bruce, D-Atlanta, said he is concerned not only about himself and his colleagues, but for employees and others gathered for the legislative session. And he worries lawmakers will get sick and take COVID back to their districts. At least four legislators did not attend the first day of the legislative session on Monday after either previously testing positive for COVID-19 or being in contact with someone who had the virus.
Prison shutdowns prompting home confinements, transfers - OFFICIALS AT THE STATE Department of Correction say they intend to move about 200 minimum security prisoners – some to new facilities and some to home confinement under a plan the agency has been working on for three months. According to court documents signed by Commissioner Carol Mici, the move toward home confinement, known as the electronic monitoring program, will begin February 7. Earlier Friday afternoon, officials said the decision to move or transfer about 188 prisoners was triggered by the decision to suspend operations within the next 60 days at under-used housing units holding minimum security and pre-release inmates at MCI-Shirley and South Middlesex Correctional Center. There are no plans to permanently close the facilities, which will reopen after the threat of the pandemic subsides. An undetermined number of prisoners at the facilities will be moved to homes or secure shelters where they will wear electronic ankle monitors, officials said. The DOC could not provide further details, but court documents filed Friday afternoon in an ongoing case with Prisoners’ Legal Services revealed more information. The DOC’s Office of Investigative Services will create home plans for approved prisoners and see if any of those involve Section 8 housing or Department of Children and Families involvement. Training for case officers who will be supervising the monitoring program will begin on January 12.
West Virginia schools slated to return to in-person instruction next week - As COVID-19 cases surge across the United States, West Virginia’s Republican Governor Jim Justice has ordered elementary and middle schools to reopen for five-day-a-week, in-person instruction starting January 19. Justice justified the decision by pointing to falling referrals in child protective service cases and a report that one-third of remote-learning students were failing at least one core class. “We’ve got a bunch of kids that are out there, really suffering,” he said. “So we must get back in school.” The governor’s decision caters to corporate interests in the state eager to resume normal operations in the pandemic. In effect, the lives of teachers, staff, students, and the entire population are being tossed like kindling onto the fire. Moreover, with the possibility of the new COVID-19 variant first discovered in Britain spreading through the US, schoolchildren may be even more susceptible to contracting and spreading the virus. West Virginia has received only 87,000 doses of the COVID-19 vaccines delivered to the states. Of those, only 52,000 have been administered so far, including 8,300 to residents above age 80. The state only began vaccinating teachers on January 7, less than two weeks before the schools are scheduled to open. According to the state Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR), West Virginia has only 16,000 doses of the second shot on hand. Educators who receive the initial dose this week will not get the second shot until at least February, meaning they will be unprotected from the virus just before they could be vaccinated. West Virginia’s public health infrastructure is woefully threadbare even in “normal” times. The governor’s decision prepares the way for a massive increase in transmission through a state where the majority of the population is health-compromised. By nearly every measure, West Virginia ranks among the worst nationwide for poverty, life expectancy, drug addiction, chronic disease morbidity and other aspects of individual and social well-being. Teachers have expressed outcry over Justice’s reopening announcement and pointed out that his professed concern over falling grades is unfounded. One Cabell County teacher explained to the WSWS, “With West Virginia virtual school through the state, all assignments are marked as a zero. As the students complete assignments, the grades are changed to the grade they earned. So in essence they work backwards from failing to the passing grade they earn.” For that reason, the teacher explained, one-third of students may look as though they are failing until grades are entered in mid- to late January, when many will see their grades come up and “will likely pass with As and Bs. It was an alarmist statement made to provide ‘evidence’ that virtual school is failing.”
Chicago teachers docked pay and locked out of virtual classrooms for not teaching in-person - Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and officials at Chicago Public Schools (CPS) have continued their aggressive push to reopen schools in order to get more parents back to work, while the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage throughout the city and surrounding region. In the latest escalation of the school district’s aggressive posture, 147 teachers were labeled as “absent without leave” and vindictively docked pay for not reporting to school buildings on Monday. These teachers were additionally locked out of their district-provided Google accounts, meaning they were unable to continue teaching their students remotely as they had done since March. At a press conference Monday, CPS CEO Janice Jackson maintained a hard line on these suspensions, saying, “Any teacher who will be denied access to their Google [account] or pay—they have had several conversations and warnings and reminders and opportunities to explain why they aren’t at work. We’ve gone above and beyond.”The 147 locked-out teachers were part of a larger group of 915 educators who did not report on Monday, 678 of whose absences were designated as unexcused by the district. Another 90 were reported to have failed the district’s “health screener” questionnaire, requiring them to stay home. Those locked out were reported to have been those who did not report for any days during the previous week.The spinelessness and bankruptcy of the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) has been on full display in response to this provocation by the district. The union is doing nothing to mobilize its nearly 30,000 members in a defense campaign or to prepare for strike action. Instead, they informed the Chicago Sun-Times that a group of these locked-out teachers “are planning to set up workspaces tomorrow in front of school board president Miguel del Valle's Belmont Cragin home,” undoubtedly at the encouragement of the CTU.The number of educators ordered to report to school buildings has fallen to around 3,800 from around 5,800 before the beginning of last week. At the same time, it is unclear how many students have actually shown up at school. While the district reported 6,000 students were expected, actual student attendance numbers have not been released and some teachers and principals are reporting that attendance is much lower.This is not a surprise. The CPS reopening plan required parents to opt-in for in-person learning, of which only 37 percent did, for a total of about 77,000 students out of the district total of 350,000. The first phase, which comprises Pre-K and special education cluster program students, is to be followed on February 1 by the much larger group of 71,000 Kindergarten through 8th grade students that opted-in.Despite claims by Lightfoot and CPS that the schools have been made ready to receive students, many teachers on social media have reported dirty classrooms, likely uncleaned since last March, as well as classrooms without air purifiers or any kind of effective ventilation.
School board locks teachers out of virtual classrooms, threatens to dock pay if they don't report to class - At least 145 CPS teachers were absent Tuesday without official leave, ABC Chicago station WLS reported. About 6,000 students returned on Monday, but another 71,000 students are expected to return on Feb. 1.Teachers have been reporting to class remotely every day because "their workplaces are not safe," Chris Geovanis, communications director for the teachers union, told ABC News. The positivity rate in Chicago is currently at more than 10%, with a daily average of about 1,036 positive cases, according to the city's website. At least 100 teachers were locked out of their online portals as of late Monday, including those who were not scheduled to return to in-person learning until Jan. 25, "in an appalling display of management incompetence," Geovanis said. A preschool student washes her hands before breakfast at Dawes Elementary School in Chicago, Jan. 11, 2021.Pre-K and special education teachers who were locked out of their Google classrooms are still finding ways to facilitate remote learning, according to the union."CPS is causing chaos to the students because they want to force us back into unsafe working environments," CPS teacher Linda Perales told the station.Some CPS teachers who did report to the classroom held "teach-outs," bringing students outside despite the cold and windy winter weather, to send a message to the school district over safety concerns, WLS reported.A representative for Chicago Public Schools did not immediately return ABC News' request for comment.CPS Chief Executive Officer Dr. Janice Jackson told WLS that the district has spent more than $100 million to prepare schools for in-person learning. "We expect teachers to return to the classroom," Jackson said. "There is no reason for teachers to teach anywhere except in the classroom or the other places that have been identified by the district."
Schools closed after Arizona teachers stage sickout - ABC News - Multiple schools in an Arizona school district have closed Monday due to a massive teacher sickout protesting in-person learning as COVID-19 cases in the state continue to rise. Up to 600 teachers in the Peoria Unified School District are expected to participate in the sickout, according to the Peoria Education Association. The teachers planned to call out sick to demonstrate against what the teacher union described as the school board's decision to "disregard" county COVID-19 statistics "after promising parents and staff those metrics would be followed to keep students and staff members safe and healthy," the teacher's union wrote on Facebook."Hopefully this sends a message that we need to be heard and hope they install metrics and come up with a plan," a union spokesperson told ABC Phoenix affiliate KNXV in a statement."If not we will have to do it again," according to a spokesperson for the Peoria Education Association.Maricopa County, where the city of Peoria is located, is the COVID-19 hot spot in the state of Arizona, with 6,109 new positive cases on Monday and 388,518 overall since the pandemic began, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services. In Arizona, 8,995 new cases were reported on Monday, according to the state health organization.
New study suggests that college campuses are COVID-19 superspreaders - College campuses are at risk of becoming COVID-19 superspreaders for their entire county, according to a new vast study which shows the striking danger of the first two weeks of school in particular.Looking at 30 campuses across the nation with the highest amount of reported cases, experts saw that over half of the institutions had spikes - at their peak - which were well above 1,000 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people per week within the first two weeks of class.In some colleges, one in five students had been infected with the virus by the end of the fall term. Four institutions had over 5,000 cases.In 17 of the campuses monitored, a new computer model developed by scientists at Stanford University shows outbreaks translated directly into peaks of infection within their home counties.Out today, the team's research - published in the peer-reviewed journal Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering - crucially shows, however, that tight outbreak management, for example the immediate transition from in person to all online learning, can reduce the peaks within about two weeks.Lead author Hannah Lu, from Stanford's Energy Resources Engineering program, says the incidence levels of 1,000 cases per 100,000 people per week - when compared to the first and second waves of the pandemic with peak incidences of 70 to 150 - means colleges are at real risk of developing an extreme incidence of COVID-19."Policy makers often use an incidence of 50 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people per week as a threshold for high risk counties, states, or countries. All 30 institutions in our study exceeded this value, three even by two orders of that magnitude," she states."The number of students who had become infected just throughout the fall is more than twice of the national average since the beginning of the outbreak of 5.3%, with 17.3 million reported cases at a population of 328.2 million.At the University of Notre Dame, for instance, all 12,607 students were tested before the beginning of class and only nine had tested positive. Less than two weeks into the term, the seven-day incidence was 3083, with a reproduction number R0 of 3.29. "However," she adds, "with around 90 reported deaths nationwide, mainly college employees and not students, the campus-related death rate of 0.02% remains well below the average death rate of COVID-19."
SCOTUS to decide whether constitutional rights can be violated without consequence -In America, our constitutional rights are sacred. They lie at the heart of our republic, and all governments actors must respect them. But what if government officials could violate our rights without any legal consequences? That’s exactly what happened outside of Atlanta, which is why the U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments in Alliance Defending Freedom’s case, Uzuegbunam v. Preczewski, on Jan. 12. Chike Uzuegbunam was a student at Georgia Gwinnett College. During his time in college, Chike became a very passionate Christian. This changed his life for the better, and he wanted to share that same joy with others. So, like many college students, he shared his passion with passersby in an open area of campus. Campus officials stopped Chike from sharing the Gospel, informing him that college policy only allowed public expression in one of two, tiny “speech zones” for this activity. These speech zones collectively amounted to about 0.0015 percent of campus and required an advance reservation. (For context, if the campus was a football field, the speech zones were the size of a piece of notebook paper.) Despite this discouraging development, Chike remained determined to share his faith, so he jumped through the hoops to comply with the policy. While standing in the right place at the appointed time, Chike was stopped yet again when two campus officials alleged that someone did not like Chike’s religious speech. The officials ordered Chike to stop, threatening disciplinary action if he continued speaking in the “speech zone.” Alliance Defending Freedom filed a lawsuit on Chike’s behalf shortly thereafter, in December 2016. Initially, the college insisted that Chike’s expression on campus was not protected by the First Amendment at all. Later, perhaps noting their clear error, college officials changed their policies in a weak attempt to stay out of hot water in court. College officials clearly violated Chike’s rights. But the district court allowed them to get away with it, dismissing the case because the policy was revoked and because Chike had graduated, after spending his final semesters of college banned from sharing his faith as he desired. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit affirmed.
Senate majority gives Biden path to student loan forgiveness - President-elect Joe Biden and congressional Democrats secured a rare chance to wipe out student loan debt for millions of Americans with last week's victories in the Georgia Senate runoffs.
- The Democratic takeover of the Senate means Biden is in a much stronger position to deliver on a campaign pledge to sign legislation canceling up to $10,000 in student loan debt for borrowers who make less than $125,000 a year.
- Biden has called student loan forgiveness a crucial step toward recovering from the coronavirus recession, and there’s a growing expectation that his proposal would be included in a new COVID-19 relief bill — the top legislative priority for Biden and Democrats.
“With Democratic Senate control now assured, and our base case that Democrats pass another multi-trillion Covid-19 relief bill, there is a high likelihood that some form of federal student loan debt relief is included in such a package,” Beacon Policy Advisors, a Washington-based research firm, wrote last week.“The real question in our minds is not if federal debt relief is included, but how much and which borrowers will benefit,” Beacon added. I break it down here. Biden’s embrace of a progressive priority has put unprecedented momentum behind the left’s push to cancel much of the student debt held by the federal government.
- Progressives and advocates have pushed for years for lawmakers and the federal government to take bold action against what they characterize as a student debt crisis.
- Roughly 44 million Americans owe the U.S. government $1.5 trillion in student loans, and many have not reaped the rewards of their heavily financed college education.
Biden’s proposal would wipe out education debt for about 40 percent of borrowers, potentially generating more consumer spending for the damaged economy and relieving a major financial burden for millions of households.
Trump administration tries to hamstring Biden on student loan forgiveness - The Trump administration on Wednesday sought to throw up a bureaucratic roadblock to progressives’ push for the incoming Biden administration to cancel large swaths of outstanding student loan debt through executive action.Education Department officials released a memo, signed by an outgoing political appointee, that concludes that the agency lacks the power to unilaterally forgive federal student loan debt on the scale that some Democrats want.The eight-page memo says that “the Secretary does not have statutory authority to provide blanket or mass cancellation, compromise, discharge, or forgiveness of student loan principal balances, and/or to materially modify the repayment amounts or terms thereof, whether due to the COVID-19 pandemic or for any other reason.”The legal opinion is not necessarily binding on the Biden administration, which could reverse or change its interpretation of the laws that govern federal student loans. But the memo comes as President-elect Joe Biden is already signaling that he will not accede to growing progressive demands that he employ executive action to cancel student loan debt.The document was signed on Tuesday evening by Reed Rubinstein, who is serving as the acting general counsel of the Education Department. It was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.Rubenstein addressed the memo to Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, even though she resigned last Friday in the wake of a pro-Trump mob violently storming the Capitol. Rubinstein writes that DeVos had asked for his office to “memorialize” the department’s legal view on the issue of student loan forgiveness. DeVos has previously called Democrats’ proposals to cancel student loan debt “crazy.” In her farewell letter to Congress earlier this month, DeVos urged lawmakers to reject the incoming administration’s push to cancel student loan debt.Some Democrats, including Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who will become the Senate majority leader next week, have called on Biden to cancel as much as $50,000 of federal student loan debt per borrower. "You don't need Congress," he said in December. "All you need is the flick of a pen."
Can a mother's stress impact children's disease development? --Stress on an expectant mother could affect her baby's chance of developing disease - perhaps even over the course of the child's life, UC researchers have found.Psychosocial factors creating stress -- such as lack of social support, loneliness, marriage status or bereavement -- may be mutating their child's mitochondrial DNA and could be a precursor to a host of diseases, according to a University of Cincinnati study."There are a lot of conditions that start in childhood that have ties to mitochondrial dysfunction including asthma, obesity, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism," says Kelly Brunst, PhD, assistant professor of environmental and public health sciences in the UC College of Medicine and lead author of the study."The fetal and infant period is a vulnerable time for environmental exposure due to heightened development during these periods," says Brunst. "We don't just wake up one day and have asthma or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The programming effects resulting from environmentally induced shifts occur over time and likely start during gestation at the molecular and cellular level. These shifts alter physiological states that likely play a role in who is going to go on and develop adverse health outcomes."Women experiencing increased psychosocial stress -- that can range from sexual assault, domestic violence or serious injury to incarceration, physical or mental illness and family hardship -- over their lifetime exhibited a higher number of placental mitochondrial mutations. The strongest associations were observed among Black women. Higher stress-related DNA mutations in the placenta were seen in Black and white women, but not in Hispanic women. The study's findings were published in the scholarly journal Biological Psychiatry.
Cancer Death Rate in U.S. Falls by Largest Yearly Amount on Record – WSJ -- The death rate from cancer in the U.S. dropped 2.4% from 2017 to 2018, the biggest single-year decline on record and a sign of the impact of new treatments on lung cancer especially, the American Cancer Society said. It was the second year in a row with a record-setting drop, and the progress continues gains that have been made for more than a quarter-century, the cancer society said in a report published Tuesday. The researchers analyzed cancer mortality data from 1930 to 2018, before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.Overall, the cancer mortality rate has fallen 31% since its peak in 1991, according to the report, which was published online in the journal CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians. The latest decline left the mortality rate at 149 deaths for every 100,000 people in the general population in 2018, according to the American Cancer Society.“To see these continuing record declines in cancer mortality is very encouraging,” said Rebecca Siegel, senior scientific director of surveillance research at the American Cancer Society and lead author of its new report.Despite the gains, cancer remains one of the country’s biggest killers: the second leading cause of deaths in the U.S., after heart disease. In 2018, it was responsible for more than 599,000 deaths, the report said.
Trump administration to shake up state COVID vaccine allocation methods - The Trump administration is changing how coronavirus vaccines are allocated to states, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Tuesday. Rather than distribute vaccines based on population, the administration instead will allocate doses based on how quickly they can administer the shots, as well as on the size of the population over age 65, Azar said. States will have two weeks to prepare for the change, Azar said, which should give them time to improve their reporting to a federal database. Azar indicated some of the current slowness is a result of data reporting issues, and the change in the allocation method will give them an incentive to fix those issues. "This new system gives states a strong incentive to ensure that all vaccinations are being promptly reported, which they're currently not," Azar told reporters during a press briefing. "It gives states a strong incentive to ensure doses are going to work protecting people rather than sitting on shelves or in freezers," he added. The policy change would reward states that inoculate people quickly and comes as top administration officials have been complaining about the slow pace of vaccinations. Azar said that states' rigid adherence to eligibility criteria has led to a bottleneck. The administration's Operation Warp Speed has made available nearly 25 million first doses over the past month, but just over 9 million people have been vaccinated. "We need doses going to where they'll be administered quickly, and where they'll protect the most vulnerable," Azar said. To that end, the administration is also pushing states to give shots to anyone age 65 and older, regardless of underlying health conditions, as well as anyone under age 65 with an underlying condition. The administration will also release second doses of the vaccines it had been holding in reserve, in an effort to double the number of doses available. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield said a post-holiday surge has created a sense of urgency. “It’s going to be a difficult January and probably February, but with a vaccine and the new therapeutics we have, there’s really strong light at the end of that tunnel as we enter March,” Redfield said. "We really need to commit right now to get as many Americans vaccinated as we can that are particularly the most vulnerable and at risk for hospitalization.” But current Trump officials will no longer be in charge in two weeks, and it's not clear if the incoming Biden administration supports such a change. Azar said Operation Wap Speed had not yet spoken with the transition team about the change. "While we will certainly brief the Biden team on those changes, we operate as you know, with one government at a time, and this is the approach that we believe best fulfills the mission and the current situation that we are facing today," Azar said.
U.S. Vaccine Shift Stirs New Unease as 128 Million Join Line -- The U.S. government wants states to offer vaccines to millions more Americans as Covid-19 infections continue to soar, in a bid to bolster an immunization campaign that’s off to a rocky start. In recommending that states start immunizing all residents 65 and older, along with all those between 16 and 64 with medical conditions that make them more vulnerable to serious disease, U.S. health officials are clearing a path for about 128 million more Americans to be vaccinated. About 10 million people have received the first dose of a Covid vaccine since immunizations started in late December, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker. The rapid shift in strategy has raised worries that an accelerated rollout, for which many states may not be ready, could lead to new shortfalls down the road. “The first couple of weeks it was all: Why aren’t they all done, why aren’t you getting them out fast enough?” Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said in a briefing Tuesday. “The next story is going to be: There’s hundreds of thousands of people waiting for the vaccines and we don’t have any.” Expanding eligibility is intended to speed up vaccination by increasing demand and giving providers more flexibility, resulting in fewer wasted doses. Yet such a strategy with supplies still limited risks exacerbating the frustration and chaos already playing out in some states. Striking a balance between immunizing quickly and establishing confidence in the U.S. vaccination campaign will be crucial in the weeks ahead. In a briefing Tuesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar also urged states to open up vaccination to younger people with medical conditions that put them at higher risk of severe illness from Covid-19. States can ultimately decide how to prioritize the shots they receive.
Governors’ red tape blamed as vaccine doses pile up- Governors face a growing outcry over inflexible vaccine policies that are now being blamed for leaving millions of doses to pile up in freezers — and some to land in the trash. Pharmacists and hospital leaders, scrambling to get the scarce Covid-19 vaccine doses into the arms of the willing, are begging state leaders not to tie their hands. They say a patchwork of Byzantine-like state regulations — and, in at least one case, the threat of monetary penalties for stepping out of line — have left the medical community paralyzed over what to do with extra supplies. The Trump administration put it all on governors to decide how shots would be administered and who would get them first. Now, instead of moving rapidly through all the available doses, some states have been trapped by their own policies as pandemic deaths and hospitalization continue to hit new records. Urgency around the problems was growing on Monday as it compounded the nation’s already slow immunization campaign with another manufactured crisis. "The more rules we create, the more penalties we put in place, the fewer vaccines that are going to be delivered,” former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Monday on CNBC. “That's the bottom line." With the Trump administration’s vaccination efforts hitting roadblocks and falling behind schedule, Joe Biden’s goal of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days is looking more out of reach by the day. In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo spent weeks insisting that only health care workers can get the shots, even as many refused, and only began to ease restrictions in recent days. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom assembled sprawling expert committees to weigh complicated rules for distribution, miring the effort in bureaucratic confusion. The feds have sent 1.2 million doses to New York, but about 605,000 people have received a shot. California shipped nearly 2.5 million doses to local health departments and health care systems, but just over 783,400 vaccinations have been administered. President-elect Joe Biden has set the formidable goal of injecting 100 million doses during his first 100 days in office.
As the Vulnerable Wait, Some Political Leaders’ Spouses Get Covid Vaccines -With supplies of covid-19 vaccines scarce, a federal advisory panel recommends first putting shots into the arms of health care workers, who keep the nation’s medical system running, and long-term care residents most likely to die from the coronavirus. Nowhere on the list of prioritized recipients are public officials’ spouses. Yet the first ladies of Kentucky and West Virginia; Republican Vice President Mike Pence’s wife, Karen Pence; Democratic President-elect Joe Biden’s wife, Jill Biden; and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, were among the first Americans to get the potentially lifesaving shots. Kentucky also vaccinated six former governors and four former first ladies, including current Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s parents. The early vaccinations of political spouses spurred outrage on social media, with several Twitter users saying they should not be able to “jump the line” ahead of doctors, nurses and older people. In most of the 29 states that responded to KHN inquiries of all 50 governors’ offices, top elected officials said they — and their spouses — will be vaccinated but have chosen to wait their turn behind more vulnerable constituents. Governors who got the shots along with their spouses, and the vice president’s office, said they wanted to set an example for residents, build trust, bridge ideological divides and show that the vaccine is safe and effective. But that’s a rationale some critics don’t buy.“It looks more like cutting in line than it does securing trust. The politicians can get the hospitals to give it to them under this illusion of building trust. But it’s a façade,” said Arthur Caplan, a bioethics professor and founding head of the medical ethics division at New York University Grossman School of Medicine. “People might say: ‘Yup, typical rich people. They can’t be trusted.’ This undermines what they set out to do.”Besides, Caplan said, the public doesn’t trust politicians all that much anyway, so inoculating celebrities, religious leaders or sports figures would likely do more to boost confidence in the vaccine. Rock ’n’ roll king Elvis Presley famously got the polio vaccine in 1956 to help win over those who were skeptical; the actions of governors’ wives from that period are less remembered.
Pfizer Investigates Post-Vaccine Death for Possible Connection -Pfizer Inc. and federal health officials are investigating the death of a health-care worker 16 days after the person received the first dose of the company’s Covid-19 vaccine. So far, the evidence doesn’t suggest a connection, Pfizer said in a statement on Tuesday. The Florida-based physician developed a rare disorder called severe thrombocytopenia that decreases the body’s ability to clot blood and stop internal bleeding. Pfizer cited its clinical trials and data gathered since the vaccine was authorized in the U.S. in reporting its initial conclusion that the evidence doesn’t suggest a causal association to the shot it developed with Germany’s BioNTech SE. Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is aware of the death, and “will evaluate the situation as more information becomes available,” according to spokesman Tom Skinner. “To date, millions of people have been vaccinated and we are closely monitoring all adverse events in individuals receiving our vaccine,” Pfizer said in its statement. “It is important to note that serious adverse events, including deaths that are unrelated to the vaccine, are unfortunately likely to occur at a similar rate as they would in the general population.”The New York Times first reported news of the death of Gregory Michael, a 56-year-old obstetrician and gynecologist located in Miami Beach. The Times cited a Facebook post written on Jan. 5 by his wife, Heidi Neckelmann, who said Michael had died from a brain hemorrhage.
23 die in Norway after receiving Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine, 13 were nursing home patients - Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.Common reactions to the vaccine, including fever and nausea, “may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients,” Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency,said in a Friday statement. All 13 were nursing home patients and at least 80 years old. While officials aren’t expressing serious concern, they are adjusting their guidance on who should receive the vaccine. The news comes just over a week after officials reported the deaths of just two nursing home residents after they received the Pfizer jab. More than 30,000 people in Norway have received the first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccine in the Scandinavian country since late last month, according to official figures. “We are not alarmed by this,” Steinar Madsen, medical director with the agency, told Norwegian broadcaster NRK. “It is quite clear that these vaccines have very little risk, with a small exception for the frailest patients.” “Doctors must now carefully consider who should be vaccinated,” he added. “Those who are very frail and at the very end of life can be vaccinated after an individual assessment.”The agency reported Thursday that a total of 29 people had suffered side effects, including the 13 people who died. Twenty-one women and eight men experienced side effects, officials said. Besides those who died, nine had serious side effects — including allergic reactions, strong discomfort and severe fever — while seven had less serious ones, including severe pain at the injection site.
J&J One-Shot Vaccine Is Safe In Early Trials, Generates "Promising Immune Response" -- According to interim data from the Phase 1/2A trial which tested 805 volunteers, and which was published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose coronavirus vaccine is safe and appears to generate a promising immune response in both young and elderly volunteers. The company is expected to release results from its 45,000-person phase three trial later this month. According tot he report, J&J scientists randomly assigned healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 55 and those 65 and older to receive a high or low dose of its vaccine - called Ad26.COV2.S - or a placebo. Some participants in the 18-to-55 age group were also selected to receive a second dose of the vaccine. J&J is using the same technologies it used to develop its Ebola vaccine for its Covid-19 vaccine. Most of the volunteers produced detectable neutralizing antibodies, which researchers believe play a key role in defending cells against the virus, after 28 days, according to the trial data. By day 57, all volunteers had detectable antibodies, regardless of vaccine dose or age group, and remained stable for at least 71 days in the 18-to-55 age group. Unlike Pfizer’s and Moderna’s authorized vaccines, which require two doses about three to four weeks apart, J&J’s requires only one dose. That means patients will not have to come back for another dose, simplifying logistics for health-care providers. Alas, this vaccine too had its side-effects, and unlike the unexpected spike in allergic reactions in mRNA based vaccines, the most common side effects from the J&J shot were fever, fatigue, headache, muscle aches and pain at the injection site Side effects were less common in the older age group, who received only one dose of the vaccine, as well as those who received a lower dose of the vaccine, according to the data. Speaking to CNBC’s Meg Tirrell, Dr. Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer at J&J said that the phase one and two clinical trial data shows a single shot of the vaccine “gives sustainable antibodies.” He added it gives the company “confidence” the vaccine will be highly effective against the virus. As CNBC reports, U.S. officials and Wall Street analysts are eagerly anticipating the authorization of J&J’s vaccine, which could happen as early as next month. Public health officials and infectious disease experts say world leaders will need an array of drugs and vaccines to defeat the virus, which has killed at least 382,120 Americans since the beginning of the pandemic. If J&J’s vaccine is authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, it would be the third approved for use in the U.S. behind the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and Moderna’s. Pfizer’s vaccine was authorized on Dec. 11, and Moderna’s was authorized a week later on Dec. 18.
More-contagious UK COVID variant has arrived in Minnesota - Health officials say a more contagious variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 has arrived in Minnesota.The strain, which was first detected in the United Kingdom in September, was identified in specimens from five Twin Cities-area residents in four counties, the Minnesota Department of Health announced Saturday.The patients range in age from 15 to 37 years and became ill in the last two weeks of December. Two patients had traveled internationally, one did not travel and the travel patterns of the other two are still unknown, according to MDH. This content is being provided for free as a public service to our readers during the coronavirus outbreak. Please support our work on behalf of the community by subscribing to the St. Cloud Times.“While it is thought to be more easily spread from one person to another, it has not been found to cause more serious disease,” State Epidemiologist Ruth Lynfield said in a statement. “It’s important to note that this variant strain of the virus has been found in other states in the U.S., so we were expecting to find the virus in Minnesota. Knowing that it is now here does not change our current public health recommendations."MDH Director of Infectious Disease Kris Ehresmann reiterated advice to wear masks, social distance and quarantine if you are ill. “This virus makes it really hard for people to know whether they or the person next to them is infected – whether this strain or another strain – so we all need to do our part to protect ourselves and each other,” Ehresmann said. Ehresmann said preliminary studies have indicated COVID-19 vaccines are effective against the variant strain.
New mutant strain of coronavirus more contagious because it replicates in the throat, says study -The mutant strain of coronavirus is 70 per cent more contagious than the original because it replicates faster in the throat, scientists believe.A Public Health England and Birmingham University study found that swabs taken from the nose and throat of Covid-19 patients with the latest strain, known as B117, had 'high viral loads' compared samples taken from patients suffering the original strain.Higher levels of Covid were detected in the material collected on swabs from patients with the B117 variant, suggesting a more severe case of the virus, and evidence for why the virus is being more easily transmitted. Michael Kidd, who lead the study, told The Mirror that the findings could help explain how the variant multiplies in each person it infects, but said it was 'hard to determine' why the virus was spreading as quickly as it is. The study, which is yet to be peer reviewed, states: 'Clearly, the higher viral loads inferred from samples [of the new variant, indicated with an undetectable viral S-gene target] could determine the infectiousness of subjects, and thus the ability of the virus to transmit onwards.'It added that samples of the new variant 'had seen increase in relative viral load of between 10 and 1,000-fold' compared with samples of the original virus. However the study claims it is unable to place the reason for increased transmission entirely on the new variant, due to other factors which could be spreading the virus more quickly including 'human behavioural factors'. The new variant of the virus, which has a mutated 'spike' protein on the outside which makes it better at invading the body, was announced in November.The study added that samples of the new variant 'had seen increase in relative viral load of between 10 and 1,000-fold' It has been traced back to someone in Kent in September, which is believed to be the first instance of it anywhere in the world.It has since spread worldwide and across Britain, causing the UK's coronavirus infections to surge into 2021.London School of Hygiene scientists warned in December that the variant could have a transmission rate so much higher than its predecessor that even lockdowns wouldn't be able to stop it more than doubling the death toll by June.
CDC map: UK COVID-19 variant continues to grow in Florida, around US -A week after the Florida Department of Health identified the first case of the U.K. COVID-19 variant in the state, there are now at least 22 cases of the variant, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, had most widely been detected in the UK, which is seeing a surge in hospitalizations as the variant is putting a strain on the nation’s hospitals. UK health officials say the strain is 50% to 70% more contagious and deaths have increased there by 21%, according to The Associated Press. According to a database and map by the CDC showing all known U.S. COVID-19 cases caused by different strains of the novel coronavirus, there are 22 confirmed cases in Florida among the 52 found throughout the U.S. as of Thursday.At the end of December, the CDC issued guidance on the U.K. variant, saying it was likely already in the U.S. but hadn’t been traced yet given the small fraction of U.S. infections that had been sequenced.It’s likely the number of variants and cases will continue to grow, even as vaccine efforts are underway globally.The new, more contagious strain of the coronavirus is already in the state.Epidemiology Officer in Chief Dr. Nicole Iovine said researchers expected a mutation.“Evidence suggests that it might be more easily transmitted from person to person. There is no evidence right now that it causes more diseases,” Iovine said.While this new mutation has the power to infect more people Iovine believes current COVID-19 vaccines and testing will be effective in treating and identifying the variant.“The testing currently that is done to detect the virus that causes COVID-19 isn’t specifically directed towards distinguishing this new variant from the usual COVID strain,” she said.She said if you get a positive COVID-19 result you would not know if it is a new variant or not.
As U.K. variant spreads in U.S., scientists warn that country isn't doing enough to track Covid strains - As more cases of the more contagious variant of the coronavirusare detected in the United States, there's growing concern among scientists that the country hasn't been doing enough to track genetic changes in the virus, leaving Americans in the dark about the emergence of potentially dangerous new strains.So far, at least 50 cases of the coronavirus variant first discovered in the United Kingdom have been identified in the U.S. In the U.K., rapid spread of the variant, known as B.1.1.7, sent the country intostrict lockdown this week as cases surged. Now scientists in the U.S. are playing catch-up, racing to figure out just how widespread the U.K. variant is in America. "Clearly, we're not doing this enough," said Gigi Kwik Gronvall, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. "You can only look where the light is, and if the light is not sufficiently bright, you're going to miss a lot of territory." It's not just the U.K. variant that American scientists are concerned about missing: New variants of viruses emerge all the time, but the country needs a system to quickly detect strains that could cause the virus to behave differently or render vaccines and treatments less effective. Finding new strains involves sequencing the genetic code of the virus. It's a lengthy process that can take days to complete and can cost $10 per sample to $100, depending on the technology. The process uses specimens from Covid-19 diagnostic tests that would otherwise have been thrown out. However, the U.S. has sequenced only about 60,000 samples, or 0.3 percent of all cases, according to the nonprofit GISAID Initiative, one of the few international databases that houses the genetic information for more than 300,000 virus samples around the world. The U.S.'s number is strikingly low compared to the numbers in other countries, like the U.K., which has sequenced nearly twice as many cases. Since the U.K. strain was found, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has promised to ramp up genetic sequencing in the U.S. But some say the effort is too little, too late, because the virus is already widespread in the country.Joe DeRisi, co-president of the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in California, which has sequenced 10,000 samples for the state, said there is no federal program for strategic surveillance of the virus' mutations. "There should be 1,000 sites sequencing like we do," DeRisi said. "There's just a handful doing this. If you compare it to the nation as a whole, it's pitifully small. There's a very small amount of surveillance going on."
Why New Covid “Super Strain” is a Game-Changer --According to Phillip Alvelda, a former NASA & DARPA technologist-turned-entrepreneur, the pandemic is about to get even uglier for Americans as the fast-spreading U.K. strain makes its way across the country. He talks to Lynn Parramore of the Institute for New Economic Thinking about what you need to know and how our behavior must change in order to beat the coronavirus.
- LP: New, fast-spreading “super strains” are raising a lot of concerns, such as more infection among young people. You’ve been studying the U.K. variant, which has shown up in the United States. What do we need to know?
- PA: We saw the U.K. strain coming for some time. All of a sudden there began to be dramatic upticks in infection rates, even without material changes in individual behavior en masse or the abatement measures enacted and observed. England has not been the most Johnny-on-the-spot responder to the coronavirus, and there has been a lot of confusion about what abatement measures should be observed, in which areas, etc. Of the developed nations, the U.S. and the U.K. have struggled the most as societies to communicate, plan and observe reasonable measures that other countries have more successfully applied.The U.K. variant, which has now spread across Europe and into several U.S. states, has what appear to be a couple of important mutations in the spike protein, which allows the virus to attach to the receptors in the lungs. Apparently, the new variant is stickier – better at binding to the receptors. That means that it takes less of the virus to get you sick, or the same viral load gets you sicker.A big change is that the U.K. variant appears be somewhere between 40 and 70% more infectious. For a person who has this variant, they’re likely to infect 40% to 70% more people. If you think about what we have done to reduce the effectiveness of transmission, getting people to wear masks has been a successful campaign. But some masks are better at protecting people than others. A well-fitted N95 and KN95 masks will filter 95% of the virus particles from coming into your lungs, but there are also terrible masks that don’t protect people much at all. If you average mask-wearing over the population, it seems that the mask mandates reduce the infectiousness of the virus by about 40 to 50%.To put the U.K. variant in perspective, with its faster spread, we are effectively put back to where we once were without masks — even when we’re now wearing masks!
Near-Term Covid Analyses Point to Risk of Medical System Breakdown, Other Severe Dislocations - Yves Smith - Some common cognitive biases impede effective responses to looming dangers like Covid. They are disconcertingly apparent as more and more evidence supports the notion that new strains of Covid, like the UK one spreading in the US, are markedly more infectious. That means (unless the UK strain is milder, which so far does not appear to be the case) we will shortly see a big increase the number of hospitalizations. This will take place when medical systems in many parts of the US are already at the breaking point, with even ambulance crews nearing their physical limits.Yet rather than get in front of a near and present danger, the authorities and pundits are acting as if they can hold the present course, when that isn’t working very well in the US and UK. All bets are on Magic Covid Vaccines making the pandemic go away, when polls show only about 40% are willing to take them now (roughly 20% are anti-vaxxers and another 40% want to hold off to be assured of safety). Even if that cheery view might work out in the longer term, it ignores the cost of potentially catastrophic near-term damage. Three fresh pieces look at the severity of the ossible downside. One, an interview with Phillip Alvelda originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website, presented some critical facts relatively late in the article, which means they may have escaped the notice of some readers. Another is from MIT Technology Review yesterday, and the third is from Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory newsletter, which Hubert Horan kindly forwarded. Hunt’s take is the most comprehensive, so we’ll turn to that last. The MIT Technology Review article underscores that the higher transmission rate of the UK variant is the real deal and the implications are dire: If the variant strain, first spotted in the United Kingdom, is as infectious as some suspect, it could dominate US case numbers by March, send covid-19 deaths to unprecedented levels, and collide with the rollout of vaccines, research suggests.British scientists fear that the new strain, which they say is 50% to 74% more transmissible (meaning the average case generates even more follow-on infections), has put wings on the feet of the pandemic in the UK, where covid-19 case numbers have risen swiftly….“If the variant becomes common [in] the US,” Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC, said on Twitter, “it’s close to a worst-case scenario.” He says political turmoil, overtaxed hospitals, and an unrelenting new form of the virus could create a “perfect storm.” Now to Ben Hunt (emphasis his):I believe there is a non-trivial chance that the United States will experience a rolling series of “Ireland events” over the next 30-45 days, where the Covid effective reproductive number (Re not R0) reaches a value between 2.4 and 3.0 in states and regions where a) the more infectious UK-variant (or similar) Covid strain has been introduced, and b) Covid fatigue has led to deterioration in social distancing behaviors. A single Ireland event is a disaster. A series of Ireland events on the scale of the United States is catastrophic. If this were to occur, I’d expect to see a doubling of new Covid cases/day from current levels in the aggregate (today’s 7-day average is 240k/day), peaking somewhere around 500,000 new daily cases before draconian economic shutdowns (more severe than anything we’ve seen to date) would occur in every impacted major metro area. Hospital systems across the country would be placed under enormous additional strain, leading to meaningfully higher case fatality ratios (CFRs) as medical care was rationed. Most critically, this new infection rate would far outpace our current vaccine distribution capacity and policy. Assuming that vaccines are preferentially administered to the elderly, aggregate infection fatality ratios (IFRs) should decrease, but the overall burden of severe outcomes (death, long-term health consequences) would shift to younger demographics.
California Congresswoman Who Once Questioned Mask-Wearing Catches COVID-19 - Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA), who once expressed skepticism about the mask mandate in Orange County last spring, has tested positive for COVID-19. Although she does not show any symptoms, the 65-year-old Korean American politician learned she had been in contact with someone positive with the virus, Steel’s statement said via Associated Press. “At the advice of the Attending Physician, and to protect the health of my colleagues, I will be quarantining,”
California records a high of 695 coronavirus deaths in a single day - California reported 695 coronavirus deaths on Saturday, setting a new record for the state's single-day death toll as it continues to deal with a rise in coronavirus cases.The new fatalities bring the state’s coronavirus death toll to 29,233, according to coronavirus data reported by the state.California also reported 52,636 new coronavirus infections, bringing its cumulative total to 2,621,277.The numbers come as the coronavirus ravages California following a surge from the fall and winter holidays that has stretched hospital capacity in the state. California recorded 74,000 new coronavirus infections alone on Monday, surpassing a single-day record high for new cases of over 66,000 on Dec. 28, 2020 Health officials issued an emergency mandate on Tuesday requiring all hospitals to accept patients from hospitals in crisis care amid increasing patient loads, and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) unveiled a new strategy on Monday to help preserve the state’s oxygen supply.Meanwhile, the U.S. as a whole is battling a surge in infections. The COVID Tracking Project reported that the nation saw 310,000 new coronavirus infections Friday, with many of the cases concentrated in New Jersey and California.There have been 22,086,436 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began, according to a count from Johns Hopkins University. Over 371,000 have died.
Dodger Stadium to halt COVID-19 testing, shift to vaccination site-- Dodger Stadium, the nation's largest COVID-19 testing site, will cease testing for the virus and shift to a massive vaccination site, the city announced Sunday. Testing operations at the stadium will end Monday, the city said. The site will be converted to vaccination by the end of the week, reaching up to 12,000 vaccinations per day once it is fully operational. "From early on in this pandemic, Dodger Stadium has been home base for our testing infrastructure, a vital part of our effort to track the spread of COVID-19, try to get ahead of outbreaks, and save lives," Mayor Eric Garcetti said. "Vaccines are the surest route to defeating this virus and charting a course to recovery, so the City, County, and our entire team are putting our best resources on the field to get Angelenos vaccinated as quickly, safely, and efficiently as possible." Los Angeles County's pop-up testing sites will stop using a COVID-19 test produced by Curative that has been found to have a risk of false negative results. Health officials have been looking for a way to increase vaccinations. As of last week, more than 2 million COVID-19 vaccine doses had been shipped to California, but only a third of that inventory had been administered. On Monday, L.A. County health officials said along with Dodger Stadium and more than 70 other sites, more vaccination sites will be added to get frontline workers vaccinated in the coming weeks. L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said five sites, in addition to private-partner sites, will allow for additional 500,000 vaccinations among healthcare workers by the end of January. Last Friday, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a goal of administering 1 million vaccines statewide by the end of this week. City officials acknowledged closing the site will reduce the overall testing capability available in the region - but it will triple vaccine distribution. They noted the city continues to operate eight permanent and six mobile sites, and testing will be expanded at some of those existing sites. A testing site at Pierce College in Woodland Hills is expanding to accommodate more people. The city opened Dodger Stadium for COVID-19 testing in May 2020 and since then more than 1 million tests have been administered there.
January 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record 7-Day Cases and Deaths --The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,935,115 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 222,918 positive tests. Almost 29,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 11.5% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.
U.S. sets COVID-19 death record for second week, cases surge (Reuters) - The United States lost more than 22,000 lives to COVID-19 last week, setting a record for the second week in a row, as new cases also hit a weekly high. California was the state with the most deaths at 3,315 in the week ended Jan. 10, or about eight out of every 100,000 people, up 44% from the prior week, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports. Arizona had the highest death rate per capita at 15 per 100,000 residents, followed by Rhode Island at 13 and West Virginia at 12 deaths per 100,000 people. (Open tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser to see a related graphic)On average, COVID-19 killed 3,239 people per day in the United States last week, more than the number killed by the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001. Cumulatively, nearly 375,000 people in the country have died from the novel coronavirus, or one in every 873 residents. The total could rise to more than 567,000 by April 1, according to a forecast bit.ly/35yAtXs from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The United States reported more than 1.7 million new cases of COVID-19 last week, up 17% from the prior seven days. Former U.S. Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottleib said new cases could start declining in February. “By the end of this month, we’ll have infected probably about 30% of the American public and maybe vaccinated another 10%, notwithstanding the very difficult rollout of the vaccine,” Gottleib told CNBC on Friday. “You’re starting to get to levels of prior exposure in the population where the virus isn’t going to spread as readily.” Across the United States, 13.4% of tests came back positive for the virus, down from 13.6% the prior week, according to data from the volunteer-run COVID Tracking Project. The highest rates were in Iowa at 59%, Idaho at 54% and Alabama at 45%.
President George H.W. Bush's sister, Nancy Bush Ellis, has died at the age of 94 died from COVID-19 complications - Nancy Bush Ellis, the sister of former President George H.W. Bush and aunt of former President George W. Bush, died at the age of 94 on Sunday, the George and Barbara Bush foundation confirmed.
Nearly 30,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 in the past 10 days - The herd immunity policy pursued by the United States government and its counterparts around the world is producing ever spiraling heights of mass death. There have been more than 28,895 deaths in the US since the new year began. The number of lives lost each day is rapidly increasing. The highest the average number of daily deaths recorded before the holiday lull in reporting was 11,731 worldwide. That number has now increased to 12,680 and increasing. A similar trend is seen in the United States, where two consecutive days of more than 4,000 reported deaths have shot the weekly average past 3,000. At this rate, more than a quarter million people will die across the globe before the end of January, including more than 60,000 in the US alone. Whatever hopes workers and youth around the world had that 2021 would provide some relief are quickly being shattered. Such sentiments have been further dashed in light of the new and more infectious variant of COVID-19 first detected in Great Britain. It has been estimated to be about 56 percent more infectious and has already spread to many parts of the United States, Europe and other parts of the world, 47 countries so far. It is expected that this variant will become the dominant version of the coronavirus wherever it emerges. One person infected with the already existing variant might cause 39 new cases after one month if the spread of the virus is uncontrolled. One person infected with the new variant could cause 150 new cases, nearly quadrupling the inevitable increase of illness, hospitalizations and death. The surge in cases is also placing even greater strain on the distribution of the vaccine. The development of multiple vaccines to the coronavirus in less than a year is a triumph of modern medical science and those deemed safe and effective should be administered and taken as widely as possible. But this achievement is being gravely undermined by the total lack of any other controls on the spread of the virus. Testing has remained stagnant in the US even though more than 12 percent of all tests nationally come back positive. Contact tracing has been all but abandoned.
Colorado Post-Christmas COVID 19 Rise Update - During a January 8 press conference about Colorado's ongoing battle against COVID-19, Governor Jared Polis confirmed that case numbers, which had been steadily declining since fearsome peaks in November, had started rising again in the two weeks or so after Christmas, and noted that officials will be on the lookout for a possible New Year's bump.The most recent data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment shows that the increases aren't yet at levels similar to those experienced in the state a month or two ago — but risk remains. Here are the stats in major categories, as updated at 4:30 p.m. on January 10; we've juxtaposed them with the January 4 figures from our previous COVID-19 weekly numbers roundup:
361,148 cases (up 19,898 from January 4)
19,985 hospitalized (up 1,272 from January 4)
5,208 deaths among cases (up 274 from January 4)
4,107 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 200 from January 4)
3,179 outbreaks (up 126 from January 4)
Four major takeaways: The pace of cases has definitely quickened. The increase of 19,898 easily exceeded the average weekly bump of 17,686 between December 13 and January 4. Hospitalizations are up, too. The average count over the three-week period between December 13 and January 4 was 862 — about two-thirds of the current 1,272. Deaths among COVID cases and directly attributable to the disease are both down — from an average of 325 from December 13 to January 4 to 274 for the former on January 10, and from 298 to 200 for deaths attributed to COVID on January 10. But because fatalities are a lagging statistic, these figures could jump: The current death toll averaged just under 29 per day this past week. Outbreaks continue to trend downward; the average from December 13 to January 4 was 146 a week, compared to the current 126. But with many schools restarting in-person education today, January 11, that could change quickly.The new COVID-19 case totals over the past ten days are an up-and-down affair. But two recent days registered more than 3,000 cases, considerably above the highest points in our last survey.The seven-day positivity rate for the state currently stands at 7.80 percent, compared to 7.67 percent on January 4. And outpatient syndromic COVID visits remain static, registering 4.42 percent on both January 4 and January 11.
Nurses speak on conditions in Arizona hospitals where COVID-cases reach national highs Arizona’s largest COVID-19 testing company may be shutting down due to lack of funding. Embry Women’s Health, a health care group offering many women’s health services, opened over 60 testing sites throughout the pandemic with the capacity to perform 18,000 tests per day. By some estimates, 25 percent of all COVID-19 tests in Arizona have been performed through Embry. According to Arizona’s local Fox station, Embry has not received any funding from the CARES Act, and its CEO is now appealing to private stakeholders to fund the testing sites. The threatened closure of a primary testing company comes as Arizona faces the highest per capita rates of new virus cases in the US. According to data from the COVID Tracking Project—a group that compiles and organizes data from state public health authorities—Arizona saw a weekly average of 9,742 daily cases. For reference, a previous COVID-19 surge in July brought the state to a daily case level of 3,600. COVID-19 hospitalization rates in Arizona are also reaching all-time highs. Unlike testing and case numbers, which can be quite variable, hospitalization numbers are a reliable metric for the state of the community transmission as it represents people sick enough to seek care. As of January 10, 4,988 COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized in Arizona. Arizona has the highest number of currently hospitalized patients per capita in the country. As of January 10, the state had 685 hospitalizations per million people. Alabama trails closely behind with 584 per million and Nevada and California both have 571 hospitalizations per million people.High hospitalization rates have a direct impact on staffing in the hospital, increasing the number of patients a single nurse must care for and/or forcing staff to work overtime hours. On a Facebook page for travel nurses in Phoenix, Arizona nurses discussed the current COVID-19 surge and its impact on their working conditions. All names have been changed to protect the nurses’ identities.
Coronavirus in Mississippi: Record 91 deaths in single day reported -- The Mississippi State Department of Health reported a record 98 coronavirus-related deaths on Tuesday and 1,648 new cases. Since the virus hit the state in March, a total of 241,957 cases and 5,284 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported. The previous single-day record of 91 deaths was reported Jan. 5. On Jan. 6, the state topped 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths. On Thursday, the state reported a single-day record of 3,255 new cases of the coronavirus. State officials have been working over the past two weeks to increase the vaccination rate in the state, which they said has been too slow so far. On Tuesday, Gov. Tate Reeves announced that residents between the ages of 65-74 and those between ages of 18-64 with underlying conditions such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease, can now be vaccinated.Those who are eligible can make appointments for one of the 18 drive-thru vaccination locations sponsored by the health department or contact one of the hospitals or private clinics now offering immunizations across the state. Reeves said that so far, roughly 2% of Mississippi's population has been immunized. The health department is currently working to expand locations where people can go to get one of the vaccines that have been given emergency authorization for use in the U.S. and plans to release updates soon, Reeves said.
Arizona sets coronavirus deaths record, hospitalizations top 5,000 - Arizona on Jan. 12 set a new one-day record for daily deaths from COVID-19 as hospitalizations from the surge topped 5,000 for the first time. The state Department of Health Services reported 335 new deaths from COVID-19, with 232 of those attributed to COVID-19 after the latest periodic reviews of past death certificates. With its health care system struggling to cope, Arizona had a record 5,082 COVID-19 patients occupying inpatient beds as of Monday, including a record 1,183 in intensive care beds. COVID-19 patients occupied 66% of all intensive care beds statewide and 59% of all inpatient beds. Arizona remains the U.S. state with the worst COVID-19 diagnosis rate, with one out of every 109 residents diagnosed with the disease. The diagnosis rate is calculated as the total state population divided by the number of new cases over the past week. The state had a record 5,082 COVID-19 patients occupying inpatient beds as of Monday, including a record 1,1983 in intensive care beds, as COVID-19 patients occupied 66% of all intensive care bed statewide and 59% of all inpatient beds. The state’s previous daily deaths record was 297 and was reported just five days earlier, on Jan. 5. That report also included many from death certificate reviews.
Georgia sees record number of COVID-19 deaths reported in a single day- The grimmest of all records in Georgia’s fight against the coronavirus was set on Tuesday as 145 people were reported dead within the last 24 hours due to COVID-19, state health officials report.As of 3 p.m. on Tuesday, the Georgia Department of Public Health said there have been 10,444 confirmed deaths from the virus. The previous record high was 106 on Aug. 25, 2020. This is the second time reported confirmed deaths in Georgia have reached triple digits in one day. Saturday, the state reported 100 deaths. The two-week average for deaths per day sits now at just under 50, a rate not seen since the middle of September.State officials said another 42 people, believed to have the virus, but not confirmed, also were reported dead in the last 24 hours bringing the probable deaths to 1,176 since the start of the pandemic. Tuesday also saw the sixth time this year the number of hospitalizations set a record, according to data provided by the Georgia Department of Public Health. The state reported 5,695 people were currently in the hospital as of Tuesday afternoon. A total of 45,177 Georgians have been hospitalized since the beginning of the pandemic. Most hospitals remain at or near capacity with more than a third of all patients suffering from COVID-19 symptoms. Reported cases were down slightly Tuesday, but the two-week average continued to climb, according to state data. There has been an average of 6,856 cases per day for the last 14 days or 95,982 confirmed cases total in the same time period. The state counts 648,694 confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic. Those numbers do not include the 124,998 total cases confirmed by antigen testing, According to the GDPH, 3,372 more confirmed cases were added Tuesday.
US Coronavirus: United States sets record for most Covid-19 deaths reported in one day - The US set a record Tuesday for the most Covid-19 deaths reported in one day since the start of the pandemic, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.As of Tuesday evening, 4,197 deaths were reported, according to JHU. This is not the complete total for Tuesday, though, because final numbers come in overnight.The only other time the number of deaths have gone over 4,000 took place on January 7 when 4,194 total deaths were reported, according to JHU data.Prior to Tuesday's record-setting death toll, the US had averaged more than 3,223 Covid-19 deaths a day over the past week, JHU data showed.After widespread concerns about delays in vaccinations, the Trump administration will nowrelease reserved second doses immediately, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said. Such a plan had already been announced by President-elect Joe Biden.More than 9 million people have received their first dose of the coronavirus vaccine and more than 27 million doses have been distributed, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That means one-third of vaccines that have been delivered have been given to people. Six states -- North Dakota, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Dakota, Montana and Tennessee -- have administered enough first doses to account for more than half of the doses they've received.Meanwhile, seven states -- Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Hawaii, Virginia, Idaho and California -- have administered less than a quarter of the doses they've received.Officials with Operation Warp Speed defended the slow rollout of vaccines Tuesday, saying states were sticking too rigidly to guidance designating health care workers and nursing home residents to be vaccinated first. They said the rollout would speed up soon, and asked states to open up vaccination to everyone 65 and older and to younger people with chronic conditions. Over the past week, an average of 248,650 new Covid-19 infections have been reported every day.
US sets new COVID death record with nearly 4,500 fatalities in a day as toll hits 380K - more than the last 10 influenza seasons combined - and hard-hit LA County officials say children are APOLOGIZING to their dying relatives for spreading the virus --The United States has set a grim new record for daily COVID deaths as the pandemic continues to worsen across the country. A staggering 4,470 deaths Americans succumbed to the virus in the 24 hours to Tuesday evening, according to new data obtained by Johns Hopkins University. The total number of US citizens who have died from COVID-19 has now surpassed 380,000 - more than the past 10 flu seasons combined and a fifth of the world's almost two million dead, despite accounting for just four percent of the global population. Meanwhile, the number of COVID deaths recorded in the first 12 days of January alone has already eclipsed the number of virus fatalities recorded in each month from June to October last year. Already this month, 34,502 Americans have lost their lives to the virus. In contrast, 19,447 died from the virus during the entire 30 days of last June. Prior to Tuesday's staggering number of deaths, the US was averaging 3,223 COVID-19 deaths a day over the past week. Meanwhile, hospitalizations and case numbers also remain precariously high. On Tuesday, 230,000 Americans tested positive for the coronavirus, while 131,326 people across the country were in hospital being treated for the disease. The situation is most dire in Los Angeles, which is experiencing the LA County health officials have urged residents to now wear masks inside their own homes to stop the virus spreading between family members. A staggering 4,470 deaths Americans succumbed to the virus in the 24 hours to Tuesday evening, according to new data obtained by Johns Hopkins University. Pictured above health care workers tend to a COVID patient at Providence St. Mary Medical Center in Apple Valley, California on Monday Officials say the surging rates of COVID-19 in the city is likely tied to family gatherings that have taken place over Thanksgiving and Christmas. They also say children are apologizing to their elderly residents who have become sickened with the disease. 'One of the more heartbreaking conversations that our healthcare workers share is about these last words when children apologize to their parents and grandparents for bringing COVID into their homes for getting them sick,' County Supervisor Hilda Solis told The Los Angeles Times.
California hospitals ration oxygen as COVID-19 death toll surpasses 30,000 - California’s health care system is getting closer each day to complete collapse under the crush of the uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus. Over 30,000 people in the state have died of COVID-19 as of Tuesday, with almost 22,000 hospitalized and intensive care units (ICU) totally overwhelmed in most of the state. About eleven percent of the total number of COVID-19 deaths in California since the beginning of the pandemic took place in just the last week, at a rate of almost 500 per day. Inundated hospitals are being forced to treat patients in hallways, conference rooms, gift shops and makeshift field hospitals set up in tents and trailers. Hospitals are severely understaffed, and many nurses, doctors and other staff have themselves contracted the virus. The state says it needs at least 3,000 additional temporary medical workers to keep up with the deluge of admissions, and with most hospitals across the country facing similar staffing shortfalls, is reportedly looking to bring in nurses from outside the US. The situation is particularly dire in Southern California, where ICU capacity has remained at zero percent for almost a month. San Bernardino, Los Angeles and Riverside counties have among the highest rates of infection in the nation. Ambulances are forced to wait hours to offload their patients—as much as 7 hours in Santa Clara County and 8 hours in Los Angeles. To relieve the dangerous shortage of beds, temporary “ambulance receiving spaces” have been set up outside emergency rooms, where paramedics or EMTs are caring for multiple patients at a time until space is freed up in the ER. The growing wave of death has put morgues over capacity throughout the region, so much so in Los Angeles that the National Guard was deployed last week to help move corpses into temporary storage in refrigerated trailers. Los Angeles County alone accounts for over 12,000 deaths and almost 8,000 current hospitalizations. The total number of confirmed infections in the county is approaching one million, or about ten percent of the population. Dr. Christina Ghaly, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, warned last week that “the virus is virtually everywhere in Los Angeles County right now.” Almost all hospitals in Los Angeles have had to regularly turn away ambulances, and some patients have been sent hundreds of miles away for care, diverted to hospitals which are themselves understaffed and overwhelmed. Ghaly warned as early as two weeks ago that “soon, there won’t be any places for these ambulances to go… If every hospital is on diversion, then no hospital is on diversion.”
New data shows that nearly 1400 kids in the Michigan’s Upper Peninsula have caught COVID-19 - New demographic data obtained by Columbia University’s Brown Institute for Media Innovation’s “Documenting COVID-19” project, in collaboration with the Detroit Free Press, has revealed a dire situation in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (U.P.). The data shows that the number of cases among children in Michigan’s U.P. exploded from a total of 149 cases in the first seven months of the pandemic, to nearly 1,400 children in K-12 over a six week period in the early months of the fall school term. Furthermore, since mid-October more than 13,500 people in the U.P. contracted the virus, a three-fold increase since the pandemic began in March. The death toll during the second wave has also skyrocketed: 337 dead in 10 weeks, compared to 46 deaths in the previous seven months. Many U.P. counties remain today in the “Level B” category, according to the system the state uses to assess coronavirus risk. This means that the positivity rate is between 7-10 percent. These infection rates are similar to southeast Michigan’s Oakland and Wayne counties. The U.P. is home to a population of about 313,000, according to the 2010 census, a number that is a little under half the current size of the city of Detroit. Early in the pandemic, many thought that rural areas were safer from the pandemic due to lower population density. On this basis, schools were allowed to open. However, throughout the fall, hospitalizations and deaths rose dramatically in less populated regions of the country. In fact, a Pew Research Study released in December shows that the geography of new deaths has shifted over the course of the pandemic, now deeply affecting rural areas. The revelation of the massive outbreak of the virus among children in Michigan’s U.P., a largely rural part of the country, is only further evidence that many of the peninsula’s 15 counties will very likely see a rapid rise in cases if schools continue with reopening plans this spring. Furthermore, the spread of the virus among students will undoubtedly lead to an increase in community spread. Over those same two-and-half months of increasing cases among children in the fall, more than 13,500 people in the U.P. contracted the virus, three times the total number infected since the pandemic began in March. Michigan’s seven-day average of new cases is now 3,136, an 11 percent increase from 2,837 a week ago today. Forty-three counties now have a positivity rate of 10 percent or higher. That compares to 32 counties on December 21, the start of Christmas week. The impact of the decision to reopen schools in Michigan, including the U.P., has been devastating. Several educators have died in Michigan school districts since the hybrid and full openings began. The latest reported death was that of 69-year-old Cheboygan school bus driver Dale Wiersum, who died from COVID-19 in December as the second wave took hold before the Christmas holidays. Wiersum had been a driver for 7 years in the district before his tragic death. The problem facing working families in rural communities is not fundamentally different from working families in urban communities who are forced to make the tough decision to return to work in order to survive. As a consequence of parents having to return to work, they are forced to send their children into school.
Another Mutant COVID Strain Discovered In Ohio - As public health experts around the world issue warnings about new mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2, it appears a new variant has been isolated in Ohio, likely originating from somewhere in the Midwest.One of these variants, dubbed the "Columbus strain," has three gene mutations that haven't previously been seen in other SARS-CoV-2 strains - the virus that causes COVID-19, according to a statement from The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center. These mutations occur in the so-called spike protein of the virus, which enables the virus to bind to human cells more quickly. This strain quickly became the dominant COVID strain variant in Columbus over a three-week period between late December 2020 and early January, according to the researchers, who hope to post their findings soon on the pre-print database bioRxiv.A second variant found by the Ohio researchers has a mutation dubbed 501Y that is identical to one seen in the UK's B117 variant. This mutation affects the receptor-binding domain, or part of the virus's spike protein that latches onto the ACE2 receptor in human cells; in lab-dish experiments, the mutated receptor-binding domain binds more tightly to the ACE2 receptor, past research found.However, the researchers believe the Ohio-linked mutation independently evolved from a similarly mutated strain that was already a strain already in the US. So far, it has only been found in one patient from Ohio, so the researchers don't yet know how prevalent it is in the population overall. A spokesperson for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told CNBC that the agency is reviewing the new research. But the researchers believe the Ohio variant independently evolved that mutation from a strain already in the U.S. It was found in one patient from Ohio, so the researchers don't yet know how prevalent it is in the population overall.
U.S. Covid deaths reach another record, as researchers find two new variants in Ohio -A record 4,327 people died from Covid-19 in the U.S. on Tuesday, marking the deadliest day of the pandemic so far as the federal government tries to speed up the rollout of lifesaving vaccines. It comes as researchers in Ohio say they have found two new variants that likely originated in the U.S. The new record is the second time in the last week that Covid-19 deaths have exceeded 4,000 in one day. It also pushes the nation's weekly average of deaths per day to 3,342 — a 26% increase compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. So far, 34,804 people have died in January, on track to become the deadliest month of the pandemic in the United States. Medical experts say the nation is now in its post-holiday surge, and the situation will likely worsen before it improves. The U.S. has reported more than 22.8 million Covid-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, and cases are rising in a majority of states every day. As of Tuesday, the average number of new cases over the last week climbed by at least 5% in 36 states and Washington, D.C. "We're in a very difficult situation, and it's getting worse," Dr. Anthony Fauci said. "I hope that as we get towards the end of January that we'll see a peaking and a turning around, particularly if people hang in there and don't get discouraged by Covid-19 fatigue and let down on their public health measures." The record number of Covid-19 fatalities comes as the Trump administration — with just a week until President-elect Joe Biden takes office — tries to speed up the distribution of coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. Researchers in Ohio say one of the two new variants they've discovered quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January. Like the strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but are not expected to diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, researchers said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reviewing the research on the new strains. The CDC issued new guidelines Tuesday that expand vaccine eligibility to everyone 65 and older as well as to those with comorbid conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease. U.S. officials said they will also stop holding back millions of doses reserved for the second round of shots of the two-dose vaccines. The U.S. has distributed more than 27.6 million doses of vaccines but has only administered roughly 9.4 million shots, according to data from the CDC. Fauci said the federal government was "a bit too rigid" when it limited the initial doses to only a small group of people, and the doses weren't dispensed as efficiently as they could have been. "Right now, we're not going to abandon the prioritization, but when people are ready to get vaccinated, we're going to move right on to the next level so that there are not vaccine doses that are sitting in a freezer or refrigerator where they could be getting into people's arms."
January 16 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 50,000 Deaths in January Already - It is possible the 7-day average cases is nearing a peak. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 2,015,414 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 215,449 positive tests.Over 50,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still at a very high level.
U.S. COVID-19 vaccine supplies strain to meet wider eligibility, second doses (Reuters) - Scattered shortages of COVID-19 vaccines persisted on Saturday under pressure from growing demand, as previously inoculated Americans returned for their required second shots and millions of newly eligible people scrambled to get their first. The supply gaps, coming as the U.S. vaccination effort enters its second month, prompted some healthcare systems to suspend appointments for first-time vaccine seekers and one New York healthcare system to cancel a slew of existing ones. “As eligibility increases, you just increase demand, but we’re not able to increase supply,” Northwell Health spokesman Joe Kemp told Reuters by telephone. Northwell, New York’s largest healthcare provider, offers appointments only as it gets more vaccine, and only after allocating doses to people scheduled for their second shots, Kemp said. Although the supply flow has been sporadic, Northwell expects to offer appointments in the coming week, he added. Both approved vaccines, one from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech and the other from Moderna Inc, require a booster three to four weeks after the first shot to maximize their effectiveness against the coronavirus.
Canada’s health care system overwhelmed by COVID-19 surge -The health care system in Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s two most populous provinces, is on the verge of collapse following an unprecedented surge in COVID-19 cases.Ontario recorded 3,945 new infections on Sunday, a record. Over the past four days, the province has reported more than 14,700 new cases and 216 COVID-19 deaths, including 89 on Thursday, making it the deadliest day in the province since the start of the pandemic. “This is the most serious situation we’ve ever been in, ever, since the start of this pandemic,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford told a press conference Friday. Unsurprisingly, Ford failed to add that his Conservative government’s policies have made a major contribution to this disaster.According to the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA), the province’s hospitals are at 85 percent of capacity, while critical care beds are 78 percent occupied, and close to 100 percent in some areas. Even more worrisome, 100 percent of the province’s basic ventilator beds are now occupied.On January 1, the Ontario government issued a directive to hospitals to increase their capacity to 115 percent. Meanwhile, there is a shortage of health care staff and the available staff is burned out. The heavy burden of treating COVID-19 patients has resulted in a drastic reduction in other health services across the province. According to Anthony Dale, the president and CEO of the OHA, once the mark of 350 patients in ICUs (intensive care units) is reached, it will be very difficult for hospitals to provide other vital services.
Spain passes two million coronavirus cases as infection rates surge - Coronavirus cases and deaths are once again rapidly rising in Spain. After a brief lull in new daily infections in late November and early December, the holidays saw a renewed surge, with cases returning to levels last seen at the height of the second wave in late October. Last Thursday, Spain passed the grim threshold of 2 million coronavirus cases, recording 42,360 new infections since Tuesday. Wednesday, 6 January is a public holiday in Spain, so case figures were not announced on this day. Over 25,000 new infections were recorded on Friday—the second highest figure of the whole pandemic. As of that day, Spain had officially registered a total of 2,050,360 cases and 51,874 COVID-19 deaths. Public broadcaster RTVE reported that a staggering 8 percent of all residents in care homes for the elderly died of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 in 2020. This is 24,933 of the 312,753 who had been living in these facilities last year. These deaths make up around half of all recorded coronavirus fatalities in Spain, as these homes became killing fields due to the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government’s inadequate measures to contain the contagion. Also on Friday, government figures showed that the accumulated incidence rate per 100,000 people had risen to 350.48—a rapid increase from 321 a day earlier. This figure has nearly doubled in a month, having stood at 180-190 per 100,000 in early December. The Spanish government considers an incidence rate of less than 25 per 100,000 to be a sign that the pandemic is under control, and 250 or more to indicate “extreme risk.” By this measure, every region in Spain bar the Basque Country, Andalucía, Asturias and the Canary Islands are currently in or nearing extreme risk. In a sign that many cases still go undetected, official figures show that around 14 percent of coronavirus tests return positive results across Spain. This figure rises to a huge 25.89 percent in the Community of Valencia, 23.4 percent in Castilla-La Mancha, 20.91 percent in Extremadura and 17.73 percent in Murcia. World Health Organisation (WHO) criteria state that a positivity rate of above 5 percent indicates that the virus is out of control. Meanwhile, the vaccine roll-out in Spain has proceeded at a glacial pace, with only 277,976 having received at least one dose of the vaccine—or 0.6 percent of the Spanish population.
New COVID-19 variant fuels surge in UK and Ireland - The UK’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty issued a chilling statement Monday, “The next few weeks are going to be the worst weeks of this pandemic in terms of the numbers into the NHS [National Health Service].” Whitty spoke two days after the UK passed the grim milestone of 80,000 COVID-19 deaths, as lab-confirmed cases hit more than three million. Saturday’s 1,035 deaths took the total to 80,868, according to the governments measure of people who have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. In the past three weeks, the UK and Ireland have exceeded the per capita daily new case count in the United States, fueled by the new variant of COVID-19 known as B.1.1.7. Scientists in the US and globally have warned that this surge is a bellwether for the rest of the world. "I've never seen an epi curve like this," said former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Tom Frieden. "The B.1.1.7 variant is spreading like wildfire in the UK and Ireland. If it spreads here, it will make an already-bad situation even worse." The true figures of COVID deaths is almost 100,000. Figures published Saturday by the statistics agencies in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate—including data on deaths over recent days—showed there have been 95,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in Britain. Monday’s 529 fatalities brought the new official death toll to 81,960 and the real figure above 96,000. Sometime this week the UK will pass 100,000 deaths. There have been another 46,169 positive cases reported, even with the weekend lull, bringing the total cases to 3,118,518. London and the south east of England are the epicentre of the pandemic but it is raging throughout the country. On Monday, NHS England leader Sir Simon Stevens said that a quarter of coronavirus admissions to hospital are for people under the age of 55. Testifying before Parliament’s public accounts committee he stated, “In London perhaps one in 30 people has the coronavirus, in parts of London it may be twice that number. If you look across other regions of England the issue is that coronavirus is once again on the rise. In Merseyside in just the last week there has been a further 50% increase in the number of Covid hospitalisations.”
London Mayor declares “major incident” as UK capital devastated by COVId-19 - London is suffering an unprecedented medical catastrophe. Last Saturday, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan declared a “major incident” in the capital. Khan said in a statement, “The situation in London is now critical with the spread of the virus out of control… our hospitals are at risk of being overwhelmed. The stark reality is that we will run out of beds for patients in the next couple of weeks unless the spread of the virus slows down drastically.” In an interview with Sky News, he described the situation as “like a theatre of war.” Khan’s announcement is an admission that the Conservative government’s “herd immunity” policy, which he has helped enforce, has brought the health service to the point of collapse in a city of almost nine million people. Fifteen of London’s 32 boroughs are recording infection rates of more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 people, up to 1,569 in Barking and Dagenham—according to the latest figures for the week to January 6. The average figure for London is 1,052. Twenty-four boroughs recorded week-on-week increases in the rate of infection. Official testing figures only scratch the surface. The Office for National Statistics estimates that one in 30 people are infected with the virus in London, up to one in 20 in the worst-hit areas. These numbers are putting unsustainable pressure on health services. The London Ambulance Service is dealing with 8,000 calls a day, compared with 5,000 on a normal busy day, meaning people in need of emergency help are sometimes having to wait hours before paramedics arrive. More than 100 firefighters have been drafted in to drive ambulances. Roughly 800 patients a week have to wait in the ambulance for more than an hour when they get to hospital because staff are too busy to admit them. Roughly 40 percent of patients in London are ill with Covid-19. As of last week, six of London’s 18 acute National Health Service (NHS) trusts had unoccupied beds in the single figures. Several had no intensive care beds spare at all. Sixteen out of 21 London trusts had breached their “safety threshold”, with bed occupancy levels over 92 percent. Two of these were 100 percent full. More than 800 coronavirus cases a day are currently being admitted to the city’s hospitals. Close to 1,000 were admitted to intensive care in the last fortnight. These numbers will increase over the next weeks as the surging case numbers of the last few days produce more hospitalisations. NHS England London medical director Vin Diwakarwarned that in the “best case” scenario, London’s hospitals would be short 1,500 beds by January 19. They would be 2,900 short in the average case and 4,400 in the “worse” case. Besides beds, there are also severe shortages of staff. ICU nurses in major hospitals are being required to look after three patients at a time, rather than the normal one-to-one care.
Australia hit by more infectious coronavirus strains, B117 -- More infectious strains of coronavirus have reached Australia, including the B117 variant that was first detected in Britain. Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city, was placed under a three-day lockdown, from last Friday to 6 p.m. today, after a positive test for the B117 strain was confirmed for a cleaner who had been working at a hotel for quarantined people returning from overseas. The case represented yet another failure of the hotel quarantine system. COVID-19 testing site in the Melbourne suburb of Fawkner (Photo: @JoanWil85024201, Twitter) Failures to enact basic preventive measures, such as the proper provision of personal protective equipment (PPE), have triggered multiple COVID-19 clusters spilling out of several states’ quarantine hotels and into the population. The Brisbane lockdown demonstrated some of the calculations being made within Australian ruling circles in the face of the now even deadlier coronavirus threat. When the global pandemic first emerged last year, state and federal governments initially opted for a “suppression” strategy, based on managing a supposedly steady level of infection. Labor and Liberal leaders rejected an elimination strategy, on the explicit basis that this would prove too costly for corporate interests. The criminally negligent approach saw the premature lifting of initial restrictions, leading to the “second wave” in Melbourne. The B117 variant, which has engulfed Britain in the past weeks and reportedly is 1.7 times as contagious as other strains, poses an even greater danger. Similarly infectious strains, including one from South Africa, have also been detected. Despite this, state and federal governments are continuing to resist imposing preventive measures that impinge on profit-generating business activities. The three-day Brisbane lockdown was held over the weekend to limit even minimal adverse effects for corporate retailers, construction companies, and other business interests. Coronavirus has a 14-day incubation period, yet the Queensland state Labor government of Premier Anastasia Palaszczuk has insisted that a lockdown covering this period was not necessary. The premier today announced that only minimal mask wearing and indoor venue capacity restrictions would be in place for the next 10 days.
Australian authorities say we need to assume the UK COVID-19 variant will become the dominant strain. This is where the virus has spread so far - It's been about five weeks since the UK Health Minister announced a new strain of the coronavirus.Since then, the UK COVID-19 variant has spread to at least 45 countries and prompted lockdowns and new restrictions across Australia.Like national lockdowns in March last year, these are designed to provide some breathing room for authorities scrambling to contain the spread. So far, 45 countries have detected the UK coronavirus variant, according to cov-lineages.org, which, among other things, tracks the global spread of the new COVID-19 strains.Thirteen countries have recorded community transmission of the COVID-19 variant, which studies suggest could be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than earlier strains. Cases have been recorded in European countries including Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal and the Netherlands.Outside of Europe, local transmission has been recorded in the United States, Canada, Israel and in the Philippines.The first case detected in the United States was on December 29, in a man who had no travel history.According to the US Centres for Disease Control, there are 63 recorded cases across the country.The states with the most cases of the variant include California with 33 recorded cases, Florida with 22, and Colorado, where the strain was first detected, has three recorded cases. This is not the total cases of the variant circulating in the US, just those found in the analysis of positive samples. It comes as the US recently reached a record 300,000 new COVID-19 cases recorded in a day.The new strain's increased infectiousness is thought to be driving up case numbers up in the United Kingdom.Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, "this strain is likely to become [the] more dominant strain of the virus globally".NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said the same, "We have to assume that this strain will become the dominant strain and it is important to keep re-assessing our settings, keep staying vigilant and for the immediate future keep wearing our masks in those indoor settings," she said.
Another new coronavirus variant found in Japan - A new coronavirus variant has been detected in four travelers from Brazil’s Amazonas state, Japan’s health ministry said Sunday. The strain differs from highly infectious variants first found in Britain and South Africa that have driven a surge in cases in those countries. A ministry official said studies were underway into the efficacy of vaccines against the new variant. “At the moment, there is no proof showing the new variant found in those from Brazil is high in infectiousness,” Takaji Wakita, head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID), told a health ministry briefing. Still, Brazil’s Health Ministry said it has been notified by Japanese authorities that the new variant has 12 mutations, one of which is also present in the variants found in the U.K. and South Africa. “It implies a potential higher virus infectiousness,” it said. Of the four travelers who arrived at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on Jan. 2, a man in his 40s had a problem breathing, a woman in her 30s had a headache and sore throat and a teenage male had a fever, while a teenage girl showed no symptoms, the health ministry said. The four people tested positive for the novel coronavirus in airport quarantine, and the new mutant strain was detected through a detailed examination by the NIID, according to the ministry. The ministry also said that the variant reported in Britain has been found in three different people who had close contact with a man infected with the strain. Brazil’s Health Ministry asked the Japanese government to provide information on the new variant of the novel coronavirus detected in the four travelers. The ministry asked for information such as the genetic sequence of the new strain. The Brazilian ministry has taken necessary preventive measures including sending a cautionary notice to related domestic organizations, an official said. It has asked the Japanese ministry about information on the travelers’ stays in Brazil in order to track their possible contact with others, the official said. Brazil is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus infections, with a daily average of more than 50,000 people testing positive for the virus in January. In Brazil, the mutant strains of the British and South African types have been confirmed.
COVID-19 cases increasing rapidly in China - Since the end of 2020, as part of the worsening global epidemic, coronavirus crises have broken out in many parts of China. As the coldest winter conditions approach, a new wave of outbreaks is still developing. In recent days, the authorities in regions threatened by the epidemic—large cities such as Shenyang, Dalian, and Shijiazhuang—have successively announced that they have entered a “wartime state.” Their measures include opening nucleic acid testing for millions of people, cancelling all gatherings, and restricting public transportation. These pandemic prevention operations face serious challenges. The Spring Festival is approaching—the annual lunar new year, seven-day holiday, and its customary mass movement of people, is due to start on February 12. Usually, hundreds of millions of people, mainly migrant workers, return home during this time of the year. Concerned about the impact of the pandemic, the governments of many cities have issued notices asking people not to return home unless necessary. According to the National Health Commission, as of midnight on January 10, there were 673 confirmed cases (symptomatic infections) and 506 asymptomatic infections recorded in China. Currently, the outbreaks are mainly concentrated in Beijing, as well as Shijiazhuang, Shenyang and Dalian. After a new wave of infections broke out in the three major cities of Beijing, Shenyang and Dalian in the second half of December, the number of cases in Shijiazhuang also increased rapidly—by 212 cases in nine days—making it the most severely-hit pandemic area in China. Shijiazhuang City, the capital of Hebei Province, a city of 11 million people, was declared a “wartime state” last Tuesday. Since Thursday, its railways, highways, and flights have been blocked, to prohibit people from entering or leaving. Gaocheng District, which is under the jurisdiction of Shijiazhuang City, is the epicentre of the outbreak. Three officials in the district have been accused by authorities of “terrible prevention and control.” According to reports, the first case of this outbreak came from Xiaoguozhuang Village, where a 61-year-old female resident was diagnosed with the infection. Subsequently, confirmed cases appeared in the village, one after another, and gradually spread to surrounding villages. At a press conference on January 8, Li Qi, director of the Hebei Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said the outbreak in Hebei, like the outbreaks in other regions, was caused by viruses from abroad. Xiaoguozhuang Village is only a dozen kilometres away from Zhengding International Airport, thus facilitating the import and spread of the virus. Most of the local villagers work in the service industry or cold chain logistics, and are therefore more likely to be exposed to the virus. In addition, social gatherings may be a factor in this outbreak. According to official information, from December 28 to January 2, several weddings were held in Xiaoguozhuang Village and surrounding villages, and more than 19 confirmed cases participated. From a wedding on December 28, seven guests were diagnosed with infection. According to comments cited in the media from local villagers, almost no one wore masks or took other protective measures at the wedding.
Another Chinese city goes into lockdown amid new COVID-19 threat (Reuters) - China imposed new coronavirus curbs in areas near Beijing on Tuesday, putting 4.9 million people in Langfang city under lockdown as new infections raised worries about a second wave in a country that has mostly contained the disease. The number of new cases in mainland China reported on Tuesday almost halved from a day earlier and remained a small fraction of those seen at the height of the outbreak in early 2020. However, authorities are implementing strict curbs whenever new cases emerge. The National Health Commission reported 55 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, down from 103 a day earlier. Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, accounted for 40 of the 42 locally transmitted infections, with the capital and northeastern Heilongjiang province reporting one local case each. In a village in the south of Beijing that shares a border with Hebei, residents were stopping vehicles on Tuesday and asking to see health-tracking codes on mobile phones. “We have to be careful as we’re near Guan, where COVID cases were reported today,” said a volunteer security officer surnamed Wang, referring to a Hebei province county bordering Beijing. At a highway checkpoint near Beijing’s border with Hebei, police in protective gowns ordered a car entering Beijing to return to Hebei after the driver was unable to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test. China’s state planning agency said it expected population flows during next month’s Lunar New Year period to be “markedly less” than in normal years, with a bigger share of people choosing cars over other transport. Many provinces have issued notices urging workers to stay put for the festival.
Netanyahu government denies vaccine to Palestinians as it lauds mass rollout to Israelis - To great fanfare, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s immunisation drive has given a first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to 1.7 million Israelis, around 15 percent of Israel’s nearly 10 million population. A second dose will be administered within 21 days of the first, meaning all those most at risk—healthcare workers and those over 60 years of age—will be protected from the virus now raging across the country. Nevertheless, the lifting of an early lockdown in May in the interests of the financial elite has seen an alarming rise in cases since September that will continue to escalate. A total of 471,000 infections and 3,600 deaths, largely in the latest wave, has forced the government to impose a third limited lockdown. While Netanyahu has trumpeted the vaccination rollout, dubbed “Returning to Life”, as the fastest in the world, its distribution has been rife with inequities and mismanagement. Teachers were excluded from the initial rollout, despite at least some schools remaining open, while tens of thousands of young people were able to get the vaccine and thousands of doses went to waste, according to the Health Ministry. The government has now agreed to vaccinate them after the Teachers’ Union threatened strike action. With the vaccines widely reported as running out, Netanyahu negotiated with Pfizer to increase the number of the vaccines and the speed of arrival. Fewer of Israel’s Palestinian citizens, including those living in East Jerusalem, have been vaccinated than Jewish Israelis, due to the far lower level of healthcare provision in the Palestinian communities and their distrust of official government programmes. But crucially the rollout does not include the five million Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza, which Israel has illegally occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. This is yet another example of the gross inequities in the distribution of the vaccine within and between countries across the globe as the rich get the jab while the poor wait in line. It is a gross violation of Israel’s responsibilities under the 1949 Geneva Convention for the health of the Palestinians living in the areas it controls, including the obligation to ensure medical supplies and preventative measures “to combat the spread of contagious diseases and epidemics.” Under the Oslo Accords, Israel agreed to bilateral co-operation on issues involving healthcare and epidemics but has in practice reneged on its obligations to the extent that the Palestinians have long endured problems importing medical equipment and an opaque security permit regime that makes it difficult for those in need of life-saving medical care to seek treatment in Israel or abroad. Israel turned down a modest request from United Nations officials to provide the Palestinians with vaccines for their medical workers, saying that there was a shortage of shots for its own citizens. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said that while it was in Israel’s interest to contain the virus among the Palestinians, its first obligation was to its own citizens. Israel has refused to acknowledge the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) informal approach to procure and distribute a vaccine on its behalf. Rejecting accusations of “medical apartheid” as tantamount to anti-Semitism, it argued that since the PA had not officially requested help obtaining the vaccine, Israel was not responsible for providing medical support to Palestinians.
Indonesia launches vaccination drive as COVID-19 deaths hit record (Reuters) - Indonesia launched one of the world’s biggest COVID-19 vaccination campaigns on Wednesday with President Joko Widodo getting the first shot of a Chinese vaccine as his country fights one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in Asia. The drive aims to inoculate 181.5 million people, with the first to be vaccinated receiving the CoronaVac vaccine from China’s Sinovac Biotech, which Indonesia authorised for emergency use on Monday. Dressed in a white shirt and wearing a mask, the president, who is known as Jokowi, got his shot at the presidential palace. “Vaccination is important to break the chain of COVID-19 transmission and give protection to us and safety to every Indonesian and help accelerate economic recovery,” Jokowi said after getting his injection. Some other officials being vaccinated showed off their shot marks to waiting journalists and flexed their arms. Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin has said nearly 1.5 million medical workers would be inoculated by February, followed by public servants and the general population within 15 months. Unlike many countries, Indonesia intends to inoculate its working population first, rather than the elderly, partly because it does not have enough data from clinical trials on CoronaVac’s efficacy on older people.
Bangladesh pandemic cases surpass half a million, with over 7,810 deaths - Officially, COVID-19 pandemic cases in Bangladesh stand at over 524,000 and deaths at more than 7,810, as medical experts criticise the callous disregard of Prime Minister Sheik Hasina’s government over its handling of the health emergency. Nine months have already passed since the first COVID-19 related cases and deaths were reported: three cases on March 8 last year and on March 18, the first death. The government’s under-estimation of the extent of the crisis was exposed after its figures were compared with those in other countries, which adopted the criminal “herd immunity” policy allowing the virus to run unchecked. Yet, Bangladesh has performed only 0.09 tests per thousand people—one of the lowest in the world, according to data on December 2, the day the number of cases reached the half million mark. The Bangladesh Peace Observatory, under the Centre for Genocide Studies at Dhaka University, reports that it counted a total of 2,205 deaths of those with virus symptoms between March 22 and November 28, in addition to other figures from state authorities. It prepared the reports based on information from 25 media outlets. As of January 8, a total of 3.33 million tests have been carried out in Bangladesh. Last week, the country’s health ministry reported just over 13,600 tests, which was a decline from the maximum of 19,000 on December 15. The decrease in the number of tests has taken place as medical experts insist that at least 50,000 tests should be carried out daily. On January 6, Hasina addressed the nation on the second anniversary of her Awami League government. She pompously declared, “The infection rate and death toll in Bangladesh are still quite low. We are trying our best to keep the pandemic under control and have promised to bring the vaccines to Bangladesh swiftly.” She prayed for those who have lost their lives during the pandemic and thanked the frontline workers, including the doctors, health workers, the armed forces and field-level workers for battling the pandemic courageously. However, contrary to the advice provided by medical experts at the beginning of the outbreak of the virus, the government tacitly approved the policy of herd immunity. Hasina has downplayed the pandemic, previously commenting that it was “not that deadly.” Medical and infectious disease specialist Professor Ridwanur Rahman commented that “the government’s strategy against COVID-19 has been suicidal” from the beginning. “From screening at the ports, and quarantine, to testing and contact tracing—all were being carried out in name only,” he said.
Global COVID-19 death toll nears 2 million --It was just one year ago, on January 11, 2020, when the first death attributable to COVID-19 was confirmed in a 61-year-old Chinese man known to have frequented the seafood market in Wuhan. He had several medical conditions, such as chronic liver disease, and died from heart failure and pneumonia. It is now well understood older age and various health conditions can exacerbate COVID-19 infections. It was also exactly one year ago when the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the genomic sequence for the novel coronavirus had been posted in the National Institute of Health’s genetic sequence bank, also known as GenBank. One year later, close to two million deaths have been reported. To be exact, the Worldometer coronavirus pandemic dashboard has the figure at 1,968,622, as of this writing. The present seven-day moving average stands at 12,941 deaths each day. It has remained over 10,000 deaths per day since November 23, as the winter surge that has swept across most of Europe and the Americas continues to take its toll on the population. There have also been over 91.9 million COVID-19 infections reported during the pandemic. There is no doubt, given the asymptomatic nature of most cases and lack of testing in many countries, that this number is a gross underestimate. In October, Dr. Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program executive director, said, “Our current best estimates tell us that this virus may have infected about ten percent of the global population.” It would mean that based on an estimate of 7.6 billion people, little more than 760 million people had been infected last autumn. Yesterday saw over 663,000 infections and 15,706 deaths. The current seven-day average in daily cases is approaching three quarters of a million a day. The US, with 222,121 cases, reported 4,259 deaths. Both Germany and the UK saw over 1,000 deaths, with Europe registering 6,264 deaths in all. The exponential growth in the UK has been fueled by the B.1.1.7 variant, which has become the most common form of the virus. The mutations in the coronavirus’ spike protein have increased its transmissibility sufficiently to increase the reproduction number from the order of 1.0 to 1.5. Given that the variant has been discovered in over thirty countries, scientists in the US and globally expect this particular version of the virus to become the dominant form, which will push already strained health resources into uncharted waters. The situation with high oxygen demand in Southern California led five hospitals in LA County to declare an “internal disaster” on December 27. Their old decrepit oxygen delivery systems in aging hospitals, long overdue for updating, are beginning to fail under stress.
Covid: UK reports record 1,564 daily deaths - BBC News -A further 1,564 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began. It brings the total number of deaths by that measure to 84,767. Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said there have now been more deaths in the second wave than the first. And the prime minister warned there was a "very substantial" risk of intensive care capacity being "overtopped". Speaking to the Commons Liaison Committee, Boris Johnson said the situation was "very, very tough" in the NHS and the strain on staff was "colossal". He appealed to the public to follow lockdown rules, which require people in England to stay at home and only go out for limited reasons, such as for food shopping, exercise, or work if they cannot do so from home. Similar measures are in place across much of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. A further 47,525 new cases have also been recorded. Perhaps the most distressing element about the latest Covid deaths is that the numbers are almost certainly going to rise from here. People who are dying now are likely to have been infected three or so weeks ago, around Christmas time. That was at a point when infection rates were rising quite steeply, so in the coming days and weeks we should, sadly, expect to see more deaths than this being reported. Today's figures are affected by the weekend, which sees delays in reporting deaths that tend to translate into higher figures from Tuesday onwards. Currently around 1,000 people a day on average are dying once you take this into account. But the figures also provide some hope. For the third day in a row the number of newly diagnosed infections are well below 50,000. There have been several days where they have exceeded 60,000. If that trend continues, and the number of new cases keeps coming down, that will eventually translate into the number of deaths falling. But it is going to take some weeks for that to happen. These are, as many have been saying, the darkest days of the pandemic so far.
Irish health system on brink of collapse as COVID-19 figures surge - The Irish health system was on the brink of being overwhelmed last weekend by the upward spiral of admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICU). On January 8, a record 8,248 COVID-19 infections and 20 deaths, were registered. Eight further deaths and 6,888 new cases were reported on Monday. In total, there have now been a staggering 135,884 infections and 2,237 people have died. In the last two weeks, more than 50,000 cases have been reported, accounting for 40 percent of all cases recorded since the outbreak of the pandemic last year. Professor Philip Nolan of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) warned last week, “The number in hospitals is now increasing exponentially, so we’re at the point now where our health services are under threat”. The number of people with coronavirus in hospital has more than quadrupled in the last two weeks. Latest figures from the Irish Health Service Executive (HSE) put the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in hospital at 1,575, with 146 of these in ICUs. Of the 274 open and staffed ICU beds, 232 of these are occupied and only 40 available. The head of the ICU at Mid-Western University Regional Hospital in Limerick, Dr Catherine Motherway, questioned last week whether the ICU's would be able to cope. Speaking to the Irish Mail she said, “I don't know, nobody knows. We have a finite health resource, there are only a certain number of beds. We are hoping in some hospitals where possible to continue time-critical cases—i.e., cancers, high-risk vascular etcetera—where the patients can't wait." She warned, “In a surge scenario contingency standards of care replace normal standards of care, and outcomes may not be as good for patients.” Enda O' Connor, ICU director at St James's Hospital in Dublin, issued a statement last weekend saying that the surge in ICU admissions could be “longer and more severe than the first wave last March due to the increase in cases, and it's possible we could see scenes here like they had in Italy during the first wave.” Dr Anthony Staines, a leading expert on the coronavirus, stated last week that the projected August deadline for vaccinating most of the population could be extended to December this year due to the slow rollout of the vaccine. The rate at which the Irish state is currently vaccinating people against COVID-19 is nowhere near what is needed to give the population immunity before next year.
Over 600,000 dead from coronavirus in Europe - More than 600,000 people have died of coronavirus in Europe, according to the official statistics tabulated by Worldometer, which includes Russia in its count. The continent surpassed the horrific marker earlier this week. Every three weeks another approximately 100,000 people are dying from the virus on the continent. The total of 300,000 deaths was passed near November 10; 400,000 at the end of that month; and half a million three days before Christmas. More than one in 1,000 people alive in Europe at the beginning of 2020 have died from the coronavirus. Per million people in the population, the number of dead is over 1,700 in Belgium, 1,477 in Slovenia, 1,330 in Italy, 1,245 in the UK, 1,131 in Spain. Another 1,060 people were reported dead in Germany in the past 24 hours, bringing the country’s death toll to 43,203. These numbers are a significant underestimate of the real number. In Spain, the official death toll is 52,878, but the number of “excess deaths” above the historical norm—a better indication of deaths due to the pandemic—is 83,700. Yet scientists are warning that the pandemic is entering into an even more catastrophic stage than anything that has preceded it. It is propelled by the rapid spread of the new, more contagious variant identified in September in the UK, and consciously facilitated by the criminal policies of European governments. Even as health care systems are being overwhelmed, schools and non-essential workplaces are being kept open, despite their role as transmitters of the virus, to ensure that no amount of death prevents the smooth and profitable functioning of business. The clearest warning of what is being prepared can be seen in the UK. Yesterday set a new record of 1,564 deaths. In a country the size of the United States, this would have meant more than 7,700 deaths in 24 hours. Another 47,525 new cases were reported over the same period. The new strain of the virus is now the dominant one in the UK. In Ireland, where the new variant was first detected for the first time on Christmas Day, new cases have skyrocketed from 250 confirmed cases per million people at the beginning of the year to over 1,200 now, a five-fold increase in the space of two weeks. Across Europe, variants identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been detected in over a dozen countries, yet it remains unknown to what extent it has already established itself throughout the population. France gives a particularly clear example of the authorities’ failure to track the spread. The first case of the UK variant was detected in Tours at the end of December. As late as the second week of January, media reports on the number of detected cases indicated that there were between 10 and 20 confirmed such cases. On January 12, Olivier Véran, the health minister, spoke before the National Assembly and reported that the new strain contributed to “approximately one percent of the 100,000 tests conducted in France.” Yet this appears to be a significant underestimate, and varies greatly according to location. Patrice Hérisson, regional director of the medical laboratory Cerballiance in Saint Denis, near Paris, told Le Parisien on Tuesday that “10 to 15 percent of our positive cases in Île-de-France are identified as suspected English variants.”
More than 2 million people dead globally from COVID-19 - The global death toll from COVID-19 topped 2 million Friday as vaccines developed at breakneck speed are being rolled out around the world in an all-out campaign to vanquish the threat. The milestone was reached just over a year after the coronavirus was first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The number of dead, compiled by Johns Hopkins University, is about equal to the population of Brussels, Mecca, Minsk or Vienna. It is roughly equivalent to the population of the Cleveland metropolitan area or the entire state of Nebraska. While the count is based on figures supplied by government agencies around the world, the real toll is believed to be significantly higher, in part because of inadequate testing and the many fatalities that were inaccurately attributed to other causes, especially early in the outbreak. The global death toll from COVID-19 topped 2 million Friday as vaccines developed at breakneck speed are being rolled out around the world in an all-out campaign to vanquish the threat.The milestone was reached just over a year after the coronavirus Expand It took eight months to hit 1 million dead. It took less than four months after that to reach the next million. "Behind this terrible number are names and faces — the smile that will now only be a memory, the seat forever empty at the dinner table, the room that echoes with the silence of a loved one," said U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres. He said the toll "has been made worse by the absence of a global coordinated effort." "Science has succeeded, but solidarity has failed," he said. In wealthy countries including the United States, Britain, Israel, Canada and Germany, millions of citizens have already been given some measure of protection with at least one dose of vaccine developed with revolutionary speed and quickly authorized for use. But elsewhere, immunization drives have barely gotten off the ground. Many experts are predicting another year of loss and hardship in places like Iran, India, Mexico and Brazil, which together account for about a quarter of the world’s deaths.
WHO: COVID-19 herd immunity won't happen in 2021, even with vaccines - The World Health Organization’s chief scientist warned that even as numerous countries start rolling out vaccination programs to stop COVID-19, herd immunity is highly unlikely this year. At a media briefing on Monday, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said it was critical countries and their populations maintain strict social distancing and other outbreak control measures for the foreseeable future. In recent weeks, Britain, the U.S., France, Canada, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands and others have begun vaccinating millions of their citizens against the coronavirus. "Even as vaccines start protecting the most vulnerable, we’re not going to achieve any levels of population immunity or herd immunity in 2021," Swaminathan said. "Even if it happens in a couple of pockets, in a few countries, it’s not going to protect people across the world." Scientists typically estimate that a vaccination rate of about 70% is needed for herd immunity, where entire populations are protected against a disease. But some fear that the extremely infectious nature of COVID-19 could require a significantly higher threshold. Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO’s director-general, said the U.N. health agency was hoping coronavirus vaccinations might begin later this month or in February in some of the world’s poorer countries, calling on the global community to do more to ensure all countries have access to vaccines.
Life-Saving Drinking Water Disinfectants Have a 'Dark Side' - The culprit chemicals tainting taps from Cocoa, Florida, to the Finger Lakes of New York to a correctional facility in Only, Tennessee, are, in fact, less recognized yet more ubiquitous: disinfection by-products. "Take a glass of water. You may or may not have pesticides, pharmaceuticals, PFAS and lead in it. Usually not," says Susan Richardson, a professor of biochemistry at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. "But there's always something that is in your drinking water, and that's disinfection by-products." Aptly named, the chemicals form in water when disinfectants that are widely used to kill pathogens in municipal drinking water facilities react with organic compounds. These compounds may be present in the water as a result of natural processes such as the decay of leaves and animal matter, as well as human activities that may release solvents, pharmaceuticals, pesticides and industrial chemicals. Exposure to disinfection by-products through drinking, bathing or swimming has been linked to potential increased risks oflow birthweight babies, birth defects, miscarriages and cancer. "Disinfection is hugely important. We've got to kill those pathogens," says Richardson. "We had millions of people dying from waterborne illnesses before we started disinfecting water in the 1800s." Cholera and typhoid fever were once deadly and pervasive threats. Still today, when concentrations of disinfectants fall too low, drinking water can become a breeding ground for dangerous pathogens such asLegionella, E. coli, even cholera. "It's a trade-off between inactivating pathogens that are going to make people sick today versus the long-term, low-level risk of chemicals in the water," says Christy Remucal, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Striking a balance may be even more challenging today as waters become increasingly compromised due to population growth, wastewater intrusion, energy exploration, climate change — and now the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Richardson. During the pandemic, many places have increased use of chlorine for disinfection in indoor and outdoor settings and during wastewater treatment, resulting in the potential for higher levels of disinfection by-products. Authors of a study published in October warn that this "upsurge and overuse of chlorine-based disinfectants" may pose a threat to human health "by impacting water quality." Concentrations of harmful chemicals have also likely increased in buildings left vacant during Covid-19 shutdowns. The longer that water sits in pipes, explains Richardson, the longer it has to react with disinfectants and form more by-products.
Ex-Michigan governor to be charged over Flint water crisis: report - Former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) on Tuesday was informed that he and other top former state officials including the Michigan health director will face charges resulting from an investigation into the Flint water crisis, The Associated Press reported Tuesday.Defense attorneys were informed by the state attorney general's office to expect an initial court appearance soon, the AP reported, citing two people familiar with the prosecution. The two sources familiar with the matter spoke to the wire service on the condition on anonymity because they were not allowed to speak publicly about the charges.The specific charges Snyder and his former top officials will face were not named. A spokesperson for the state AG told the AP that state officials "will share more [information about the charges] as soon as we’re in a position to do so.”The Hill has reached out to both the Michigan attorney general's office. Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D), whose district includes parts of Detroit, tweeted her approval of the news Tuesday afternoon, writing: "The justice train is coming through."Snyder's administration was heavily criticized over the water crisis, which exposed thousands of Flint residents including young children to water with dangerously high levels of lead. Lead is an element that can cause brain damage and other defects with high exposure.The water supply issue was linked to an outbreak of Legionnaire's Disease which sickened dozens in the area.
Former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder Among Officials to Be Charged in Flint Water Crisis - Former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and other state officials face new charges over the Flint water crisis, The Associated Press reported on Tuesday.Snyder governed Michigan in 2014, when a state-appointed special manager of Flint, Michigan, switched the majority Black city's water supply to the Flint River. The river's highly corrosive water was not treated, enabling it to leach lead from aging pipes that contaminated the water system. Bacteria in the water was also blamed for an outbreak of Legionnaires' disease that sickened at least 90 and killed 12. "The very fact that people are being held accountable is an amazing feat," LeeAnne Walters, a Flint mother of four who is credited with exposing the contamination, told The Associated Press. "But when people's lives have been lost and children have been severely hurt, it doesn't seem like enough." A source told The Detroit News Tuesday that Snyder, top aide Rich Baird and former health director Nick Lyon would face criminal charges. Former Flint public works director Howard Croft will likely be charged as well, his lawyer confirmed. Indictments of up to 10 people could be announced as soon as Thursday. But the attorney general's office has said it is not ready to release more information. "It's an ongoing investigation," Courtney Covington, the attorney general's office spokeswoman, told The Detroit News. "The team is working diligently, though and we do hope to have an announcement on the status of that investigation soon." The new charges would be part of an investigation into the Flint water crisis instigated by prosecutors working for Attorney General Dana Nessel. A previous investigation launched by former Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette had already charged Lyon, among others, but Nessel's office decided to drop all previous charges in 2019 and start over, arguing that there were major problems with the initial investigation. Snyder's lawyer spoke out against any potential charges, arguing they were politically motivated. However, there is already some evidence Snyder knew more about the crisis than he claimed. In mid-January 2016, he told reporters he had just learned about the Legionnaires' outbreak, The Associated Press reported. But his urban affairs adviser Harvey Hollins later told a judge that Snyder had been informed on Christmas Eve 2015. Flint politicians and activists spoke out in favor of Snyder's conviction. "It's just wonderful. It's finally here. It's hitting me right now," former Flint Mayor Karen Weaver told The Detroit News. "It's about time. All evidence pointed to him that he knew, that he knew what was going on. It was a cover-up for 18 long months that something was going on with Flint and the water." The criminal investigation is separate from a $600 million settlement that the state of Michigan reached with victims in August 2020.
‘Transparency’ and the New EPA Pollution Rule: Ripe for CRA Overturn by the New Congress - Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- Second only to its record on seating federal judges, one of the greatest services the Trump administration has rendered to its corporate clientele, is in gutting and rolling back Environemental Protection Agency (EPA) protections. Last week, EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler announced the new “Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science” rule via ZOOM to the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian think tank, as reported by Science in Trump’s new rule restricting EPA’s use of certain science could have short life: “What this new rule will do, undoubtedly, is provide the transparency needed to allow the public the opportunity to check our work,” Wheeler says. “Transparency is a defense of, not an attack on, important work done by our career scientists here at EPA, along with their colleagues at research institutions.” Wheeler took a victory canter the Wall Street Journal’s op-ed page, taking credit for implementing a key conservative priority in Why We’re Ending the EPA’s Reliance on Secret Science: But the work of the Environmental Protection Agency—to protect human health and the environment—shouldn’t be exempt from public scrutiny. This is why we are promulgating a rule to make the agency’s scientific processes more transparent. Part of transparency is making sure the public knows what the agency bases its decisions on. When agencies defer to experts in private without review from citizens, distinctions get flattened and the testing and deliberation of science is precluded. Although Wheeler’s rhetoric may sound sensible, it is highly misleading. The rule was enacted over the strenuous opposition of most of the scientific community. As per Science: Health scientists have warned that the new EPA policy, which has been under development for years and takes effect today, will interfere with current and future research if it stays in place. It would require EPA scientists and rulemakers in many cases to discount studies in which the underlying data aren’t available for outside scrutiny. Although a study could be exempted from the requirement, that would require the approval of the EPA administrator. As the WSJ reports in EPA to Give Preference to Scientific Studies That Disclose Data: The policy change, in the works since the start of the Trump administration, has been opposed by public-health experts, scientists and former staff who say it could undermine the agency’s effectiveness. Many public-health studies rely on information about individual patient health that is required to be kept confidential, which may now exclude groundbreaking health findings from EPA consideration, these critics say. I must hand it to Wheeler’s EPA for what is a textbook example of chutzpah: adopting a new rule that would discard reams and reams of scientific evidence on the grounds of improving transparency. Yet rather than represent any long-lasting shift in US policy, the scientists will have the last laugh. Rather than shutting down the use of settled and valid scientific studies, this episode may instead signal that the apogee of an anti-science approach to EPA rule-making. Last week Democratic candidates won both run-off elections for Senate seats to represent , Georgia’s voters, giving their party control of that chamber in the new Congress. The Democratic majority may therefore invoke the Congressional Review Act (CR) and overturn via a simple majority vote this instance of ‘midnight’ rule making – as the Trump administration did sixteen times times 4 years ago (see Trump EPA Poised to Weaken Obama Methane Rule, Despite Possibility of Later CRA Overturn).
White House intervened to weaken EPA guidance on 'forever chemicals' Documents reviewed by The Hill show the White House intervened as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was weighing a strict ban on imports of products that contain a cancer-linked compound, substantially weakening the guidance. The guidance in question sought to limit potential exposure to a group of chemicals abbreviated as PFAS, used as a nonstick coating on products ranging from raincoats to carpets to cookware. They’ve been dubbed “forever chemicals” due to their persistence in the environment and the human body. But as EPA worked to limit the importation of any product with PFAS inside or out, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) stepped in and significantly watered down the guidance in December, barring importation of only those products with a PFAS coating on the outside. “It appears that OMB aggressively edited the guidance document to make it less protective of human health and the environment and to minimize the scope of a rule that’s intended to protect people from a very toxic class of chemicals,” said Eve Gartner, managing attorney of the toxic exposure and health program at Earthjustice. “It’s troubling that OMB is using its review authority to undermine the protectiveness of a rule that's designed to protect consumers.” Though widely used, PFAS has been linked with cancer and other ailments and has spurred a push by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to limit use of some variations of the chemical. With the White House’s changes, companies can still import products that have components covered with PFAS on the inside without alerting the EPA. Environmental health advocates say that’s not good enough. “Products disintegrate over time, so if you have something with PFAS on the inside then you may be exposed overtime. As it dissolves it gets into household dust, eventually it gets thrown away in a landfill and can leach PFAS and get into the environment that way,” said Melanie Benesch, a legislative attorney with the Environmental Working Group, which tracks PFAS contamination in the U.S. It’s not clear why the White House stepped in to weaken the guidance. The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within OMB typically reviews major regulations before they are finalized, but does not typically review guidance documents. An executive order from President Trump, however, allows the process. “This is an illustration of the harms of allowing OIRA to review the guidance because it allowed OIRA to inject political considerations that override the science and what career agency staff at EPA thinks is the best policy,” said Amit Narang, a regulatory advocate with Public Citizen.
E-Waste Management Is Not Keeping Pace With Consumer Electronics --It's hard to imagine navigating modern life without a mobile phone in hand. Computers, tablets and smartphones have transformed how we communicate, work, learn, share news and entertain ourselves. They became even more essential when the COVID-19 pandemic moved classes, meetings and social connections online.But few people realize that our reliance on electronics comes with steep environmental costs, from mining minerals to disposing of used devices. Consumers can't resist faster products with more storage and better cameras, but constant upgrades have created a growing global waste challenge. In 2019 alone, people discarded 53 million metric tons of electronic waste. In our work as sustainability researchers, we study how consumer behavior and technological innovations influence the products that people buy, how long they keep them and how these items are reused or recycled. We mapped sales of electronic products from the 1950s to the present, using data from industry reports, government sources and consumer surveys. Then we disassembled almost 100 devices, from obsolete VCRs to today's smartphones and fitness trackers, to weigh and measure the materials they contained.We created a computer model to analyze the data, producing one of the most detailed accounts of U.S. electronic product consumption and discards currently available. Our research shows that while e-waste is rising globally, it's declining in the U.S. New products are lighter and more compact than past offerings. Smartphones and laptops have edged out desktop computers. Televisions with thin, flat screens have displaced bulkier cathode-ray tubes, and streaming services are doing the job that once required standalone MP3, DVD and Blu-ray players. U.S. households now produce about 10% less electronic waste by weight than they did at their peak in 2015. The bad news is that only about 35% of U.S. e-waste is recycled. Consumers often don't know where to recycle discarded products. If electronic devices decompose in landfills, hazardous compounds can leach into groundwater, including lead used in older circuit boards, mercury found in early LCD screens and flame retardants in plastics. This process poses health risks to people and wildlife. There's a clear need to recycle e-waste, both to protect public health and to recover valuable metals. Electronics contain rare minerals and precious metals mined in socially and ecologically vulnerable parts of the world. Reuse and recycling can reduce demand for "conflict minerals" and create new jobs and revenue streams. But it's not a simple process. Disassembling electronics for repair or material recovery is expensive and labor-intensive. Some recycling companies have illegally stockpiled or abandoned e-waste. One Denver warehouse was called "an environmental disaster" when 8,000 tons of lead-filled tubes from old TVs were discovered there in 2013. The U.S. exports up to 40% of its e-waste. Some goes to regions such as Southeast Asia that have little environmental oversight and few measures to protect workers who repair or recycle electronics.
Why Plastic Pollution Is a Producer Responsibility - We're all culprits in the plastic pollution crisis — and that's by design. I was reminded of this recently when I ordered a set of carbon filters for my countertop compost bin. (Like most people, I don't care for smelly kitchens.) The package arrived in a layered-plastic bubble envelope. Inside I found another clear plastic bag encasing the filters. Finally, adding insult to injury, each filter was wrapped individually in plastic. That made at least three layers of plastic for each filter. Frustratingly, in an effort to reduce waste, I had created more. And I'm not alone. A recent landmark study confirmed that the United States is the most plastic-polluting country in the world. Every 16 hours Americans throw away enough plastic to fill a football stadium.Adding to my frustration was a sense of helplessness. There was no way I could have known or changed the fact that these products were shrouded in layer upon layer of disposable plastic packaging.I know millions of Americans feel the same way. We want to reduce our waste, particularly our use of disposable plastic, but we're rarely given the opportunity. Even when sustainable products are minimally packaged or designed for reuse, they often must be purchased online (delivered in more packaging, often disposable) or at specialty stores (rarities). Countless times I've wished that I could have avoided buying things that created so much trash.But what if, in demanding better of ourselves, we're missing the point? The companies that design our products and packaging to be disposable not only created this system but are rewarded by it. Waste equals profit through cost avoidance.Disposable products are cheap for industry, but costly to the rest of us. As taxpayers we have to pay for trash collection and recycling. As citizens we're exposed to pollutants from excessive manufacturing andmicroplastics shed from disposable products into our drinking water and food. Meanwhile our oceans and waterways are being bombarded with millions of tons of plastic every year, killing wildlife and spreading disease.
Parasite Spread to Humans by Pet Cats Linked to Brain Cancer --About 40 million people in the United States are estimated to have a parasite called Toxoplasma gondii living in their brains, according to CDC data. The parasite, which is infamously spread to people from their pet cats, was not previously known to cause notable medical issues for humans — but now, ominously, new research links the parasite to an increased risk of brain cancer. Toxoplasmosis, or the disease caused by the Toxoplasma gondii parasite, seems to coincide with an increased risk of the brain cancer glioma, according to American Cancer Society research published Monday in The International Journal of Cancer. The study probed two existing data sources — an American Cancer Society study and the Norwegian Cancer Registry’s Janus Serum Bank — to compare the prevalence of glioma and T gondii antibodies in patients’ blood samples. They found a pretty clear link between the two, though the new study can’t by any means determine whether one causes or increases the risk of the other. To that point, this study certainly doesn’t demonstrate that cat ownership comes with an increased risk of cancer. Rather, it seems likely that the two conditions are linked somehow, or that one might somehow make patients more vulnerable to the other. There are some imperfections with the study, too. For instance, the data suggests that a small number of toxoplasmosis patients seemed to have a lower risk of developing glioma, or that there was no link at all for them. However, the overall trend of the data was skewed much more heavily toward a correlation between the parasite and brain cancer. There could also be confounding variables. For instance, maybe people with toxoplasmosis are more likely to also be exposed to other things that can cause cancer. In other words, it’s still hard to determine the extent of this correlation. The scientists pulled data from pretty small groups of people, all things considered, but the new study does pave the way for bigger and more comprehensive research into the trend. So further research is needed to pin down the relationship between cats and cancer.
Dog food recall expands: More than 70 dogs have died and 80 pets sick after eating Sportsmix pet food - Midwestern Pet Foods, Inc. has expanded its recall of some of its products after reports that the food is linked to multiple dog deaths and may contain potentially unsafe levels of aflatoxin, a byproduct of mold. The Food and Drug Administration said in a statement that it has been “aware of more than 70 dogs that have died and more than 80 that are sick after eating Sportmix pet food.”Aflatoxin is a toxin that can grow on corn and other grains used as ingredients in pet food, according to the FDA. At high levels, aflatoxin can cause illness and death in pets. Midwestern Pet Foods first announced a voluntary recall on Dec. 30 and expanded it this week. The FDA said in December it was aware of 28 deaths and eight illnesses in dogs that ate the recalled product."There have been reports of illnesses and deaths in dogs associated with certain lots of products. No human illnesses have been reported," the company said in a recall notice. "Out of an abundance of caution, we have expanded this recall to cover all corn products containing pet foods with expiration dates prior to 07/09/22."Pets experiencing aflatoxin poisoning may have the following symptoms: sluggishness, loss of appetite, vomiting, jaundice (a yellowish tint to the skin, eyes or gums due to liver damage) and diarrhea. The expanded recall includes "additional corn-containing lot codes of Sportmix, Pro Pac Originals, Splash, Sportstrail, and Nunn Better dry dog and cat foods" that were produced in its Oklahoma manufacturing plant.
UK Allows Emergency Use of Bee-Killing Pesticide --The UK government is facing backlash after it approved the emergency use of a pesticide thought to kill bees.In 2018, the EU widened a ban on neonicotinoid pesticides because of their impact on bees and otherpollinators. At the time, the UK government pledged to keep the ban in place after leaving the EU, The Guardian pointed out. But on Friday, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)approved the neonicotinoid thiamethoxam for emergency use on sugar beets in 2021."We are very upset," Buglife CEO Matt Shardlow said in a statement, "this is an environmentally regressive decision by Defra."The decision was made in response to requests from the National Farmers' Union (NFU) and British Sugar to give sugar beets extra protection from a virus causing an ailment called virus yellows disease, The Guardian explained."Virus yellows disease is having an unprecedented impact on Britain's sugar beet crop, with some growers experiencing yield losses of up to 80%, and this authorisation is desperately needed to fight this disease. It will be crucial in ensuring that Britain's sugar beet growers continue to have viable farm businesses," NFU chairman Michael Sly told The Guardian.Other countries still currently in the EU have also allowed emergency use of the product, including Belgium, Denmark and Spain.But environmental advocates argue that any use of the pesticide is too risky at a time when insect populations are in peril. A 2020 study found that land-based insects had declined 50 percent in the last 75 years. The UK alone lost a third of its bees in the last decade, according to The Independent. The decline of UK bees since 2007 coincided with the introduction of thiamethoxam, according to The Guardian. Studies have shown that the pesticide can weaken bees' immune systems and harm the brains of young bees, making it harder for them to fly."Insects perform vital roles such as pollination of crops and wildflowers, and nutrient recycling, but so many have suffered drastic declines. Evidence suggests we've lost at least 50% of insects since 1970, and 41% of all insect species are now 'threatened with extinction'", the Wildlife Trust said in a Twitter thread responding to the news.
Government to let farmers use bee-killing pesticide banned in EU - A bee-killing pesticide so poisonous that it is banned by the EU may be used on sugar beet in England, the government has announced.The decision to allow temporary use of the pesticide prompted fury fromnature-lovers and environmentalists, who accused ministers of bowing to pressure from farmers.They said during the biodiversity crisis, when at least half the world’sinsects have disappeared, the government should be doing everything it could to save bees, not allow them to be killed. Environment secretary George Eustice has agreed to let a product containing the neonicotinoid thiamethoxam to treat sugar beet seed this year in an effort to protect the crop from a virus.Last year a virus significantly reduced sugar beet yields, and similar conditions this year would be likely to present similar dangers, Mr Eustice’s department said.Setting out conditions for the “limited and controlled” use of the pesticide, officials said the minister had agreed an emergency authorisation of it for up to 120 days. British Sugar and the National Farmers Union had applied to the government to be allowed to use it.But the Wildlife Trusts said neonicotinoids pose a significant environmental risk, particularly to bees and other pollinators. A third of the UK bee population is thought to have vanished in a decade, yet up to three-quarters of crop species are pollinated by bees, studies show. A 2017 study of 33 oilseed rape sites in the UK, Germany and Hungary found a link between higher levels of neonicotinoid residues and lower bee reproduction, with fewer queens in bumblebee hives and fewer egg cells in solitary bee nests.The following year, the EU agreed a ban on all outdoor uses of three neonicotinoid insecticides to protect bees.Evidence suggests the pesticides harm bee brain development, weaken immune systems and can leave bees unable to fly. A 2019 report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Health Organisation said there was a “rapidly growing body of evidence” that “strongly suggests that the existing levels of environmental contamination” by neonicotinoids were causing “large-scale adverse effects on bees and other beneficial insects”.
World’s Largest Insect Protein Farm Signals Future Of Food Supply -The frontier of the agriculture industry is about to take a big step closer to going mainstream. Chicago-based food processing company Archer Daniels Midland and InnovaFeed, a French firm that makes insect protein for animal feed, plan to begin building what will be the world’s largest insect protein facility in 2021 in the city of Decatur in central Illinois. The partnership between ADM, a $28 billion giant, and the startup InnovaFeed amounts to a vote of confidence in a nascent industry that could one day play a key role in the global agriculture sector. “I’m in awe. If they can pull this off, it will be magnificent,” said Jeffrey Tomberlin, a professor and entomologist at Texas A&M University who has done pioneering research on insect protein. “This facility will be several times bigger than anything else in the world,” Tomberlin said. ADM and InnovaFeed plan to grow and harvest billions of an extraordinary insect called black soldier fly, whose larvae consume prodigious quantities of organic material and convert it into nutrient-rich protein that can then be sold as animal feed. ADM and InnovaFeed aim to produce up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed protein per year, plus 20,000 metric tons of oils for poultry and swine rations and 400,000 tons of fertilizer.
Scientists Sound Alarm About Insect Apocalypse - A collection of new scientific papers authored by 56 experts from around the world reiterates rising concerns about bug declines and urges people and governments to take urgent action to address a biodiversity crisisdubbed the "insect apocalypse.""The Global Decline of Insects in the Anthropocene Special Feature," which includes an introduction and 11 papers, was published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences alongside a relatednews article. "Nature is under siege," the scientists warn. "Insects are suffering from 'death by a thousand cuts.'"The set of studies—resulting from a symposium in St. Louis—comes as the body of research on insect declines has grown in recent years, leading to major assessments published in February 2019 and April 2020, as well as a roadmap released last January by 73 scientists detailing how to battle the "bugpocalypse."As the new package and below graphic explain, human stressors that experts have tied to bug declines include agricultural practices; chemical, light, and sound pollution; invasive species; land-use changes; nitrification; pesticides; and urbanization. Emphasizing the consequences of such declines, University of Connecticut entomologist David Wagner, the package's lead author, told the Associated Press that insects "are absolutely the fabric by which Mother Nature and the tree of life are built."According to Wagner, many insect populations are dropping about 1-2% per year. As he put it to The Guardian: "You're losing 10-20% of your animals over a single decade and that is just absolutely frightening. You're tearing apart the tapestry of life." While most causes of declines are well known, "there's one really big unknown and that's climate change—that's the one that really scares me the most," he said, warning the crisis could be causing "extinctions at a rate that we haven't seen before."
FAO warns desert locusts continue to migrate in East Africa - Immature locust swarms continue to migrate southwards from different breeding areas in eastern Africa, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Monday. In its desert locust situation update, the FAO cited the migration of immature swarms from eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia to southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. It also showed that a few immature swarms recently reached Mwanga district in northeast Tanzania. “In Kenya, immature swarms continue to arrive and spread throughout the north. So far, swarms are present in the four counties of Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and, most recently, Isiolo,” said the FAO. “Breeding continues, and hopper bands are present in the southeast [Kenya] near Taita Taveta and along the coast.” In Ethiopia, according to the FAO, immature swarms have concentrated along the eastern side of the Harar Highlands in the Oromia region on their way to southern areas of the country, including southern parts of the Rift Valley region. The situation update also indicated that there are cross-border movements of locusts in areas around the northwest of Somalia and along the southern border with Kenya. The UN agency called on all countries to maintain the necessary survey and control operations to reduce migration and breeding. It also warned that dry conditions in some areas where the swarms are arriving could facilitate their spread throughout southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya.
Locust invasion reaches Kenya, leaving devastation in its wake -- Locusts by the millions are nibbling their way across a large part of Africa in the worst outbreak some places have seen in 70 years. Reseachers say the explosion in population is another effect of a changing climate. The swarms of desert locusts hang like shimmering dark clouds on the horizon as they strip the countryside in what are already some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, including Somalia. The whirring insects have destroyed hundreds of square kilometres of vegetation and forced people in some areas to wade through them. “A typical desert locust swarm can contain up to 150 million locusts per square kilometre,” says East African regional body the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. “Swarms migrate with the wind and can cover 100 to 150 kilometres in a day. An average swarm can destroy as much food crops in a day as is sufficient to feed 2,500 people.” “These things came to us from Ethiopia and are destroying everything along the way, including our farm,” said Esther Ndanu, in the Kenyan village of Ngomeni. “We want the government to move very quickly to bring the plane to spray them with the medicine that can kill them, otherwise they will destroy everything.” Local official Johnson Mutua Kanandu said: “I am seeing a catastrophe.” An “extremely dangerous increase” in locust swarm activity has been reported in Kenya, East Africa's economic centre, regional authorities reported last week. One swarm measured 60km by 40km in the country’s north-east, the development authority said. Kenya has not had a locust outbreak such as this in 70 years, Rosanne Marchesich, emergency response leader with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, said on Wednesday. “It’s the worst that we’ve seen in Ethiopia and in Somalia in 25 years,” Ms Marchesich said.
Environmentalists fight move to reduce beetle's protections (AP) — An environmental group said Tuesday that it plans to sue the U.S. government over a decision to reclassify a large scavenging beetle as threatened instead of endangered. The Arizona-based Center for Biological Diversity said it will sue the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services over its move last fall to list the American burying beetle as threatened. It had been considered an endangered species since 1989, and the location of its habitat in Plains states created issues for the Keystone XL oil pipeline and other oil and gas projects. “Far from having recovered, this striking orange-and-black beetle is facing dire threats from climate change and habitat destruction,” said attorney Kristine Akland with the center. Akland said the rule change was a result of pressure from the oil and gas industry. Federal officials have said that conservation efforts over the past three decades have helped the beetle’s population recover, and it can now be found in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota and on Nantucket Island off the coast of Massachusetts. At the time the beetle was termed endangered, it was found only in small populations in eastern Oklahoma and Block Island off the coast of Rhode Island. Fish and Wildlife Services spokeswoman Lesli Gray said the agency “used the best available science in its decision to downlist the American burying beetle.” She declined to comment about the threatened lawsuit because officials haven’t had a chance to review it. . Over the years, the oil and gas industry has borne significant costs to protect the beetle and other endangered species. The large, black, nocturnal beetles are scavengers that eat decaying animals. They lay their eggs beside a small carcass that they bury, then feed their larvae from that carcass. The presence of the beetle in Nebraska’s Sandhills region — along with landowner concerns — prompted TC Energy to reroute its Keystone XL pipeline through part of the state. And last year, questions about the potential impact on endangered species, including the beetle and a fish called the pallid sturgeon, led a federal judge to cancel a key permit that would have allowed the pipeline to cross hundreds of rivers and streams along the route.
Peat Bogs: Restoring Them Could Slow Climate Change – and Revive a Forgotten World - Bogs, mires, fens and marshes – just their names seem to conjure myth and mystery. Though today, our interest in these waterlogged landscapes tends to be more prosaic. Because of a lack of oxygen, they can build up vast quantities of organic matter that doesn’t decompose properly. This is known as peat. Peatlands could contain as much as 644 gigatons of carbon – one-fifth of all the carbon stored in soil on Earth. Not bad for a habitat that stakes a claim to just 3% of the planet’s land surface.Peatlands were once widespread throughout the UK, but many have been dug up, drained, burned, built on and converted to cropland, so their place in history has been forgotten. But while most of the debate around using natural habitats to draw down carbon from the atmosphere concerns planting trees and reforestation, some ecologists argue that a far better solution lies in restoring the peatlands that people have spent centuries draining and destroying. Today, sites that were entirely stripped of peat are common throughout the UK. Where peatlands once dwarfed entire landscapes, there are large stretches where no peat bogs exist.All this exploitation released carbon dioxide, stored for thousands of years, to the atmosphere. Scientists have calculated that peat digging on Thorne Moors near Doncaster caused about 16.6 million tonnes of carbon to leak to the atmosphere from the 16th century onwards. That’s more than the annual output of 15 coal-fired power stations today. Peat digging around the world could have influenced the global climate before the industrial revolution. Putting all of that carbon back will be a challenge, as many former bogs are farmed. Peat-rich soils in the lowland bread basket of the UK supply the bulk of its domestically grown crops – and continue to haemorrhage carbon to the atmosphere. These arable farms on converted temperate peatlands are estimated to release 41 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare per year. And agriculture experts believe the fertility of these soils is being exhausted, with fewer than 50 harvests left in the peat-fen countryside across much of lowland England. With so much demand on the land, from growing food, to building houses and generating energy, it’s tempting to ask why we should make room for peatlands. But peatlands once provided all of these things and more. Recasting them as an ally in the fight against climate change only scratches the surface of their future usefulness.
Florida Manatee Is Found With ‘Trump’ Written on Its Back -- A manatee found in a Florida river on Sunday had the word "Trump" written in algae on its back.The incident, first reported by the Citrus County Chronicle on Monday, prompted a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) investigation and outrage from conservationists and animal lovers. The Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) is even offering a $5,000 reward for information leading to a conviction."Manatees aren't billboards, and people shouldn't be messing with these sensitive and imperiled animals for any reason," CBD Florida Director Jaclyn Lopez said in a statement emailed to EcoWatch. "However this political graffiti was put on this manatee, it's a crime to interfere with these creatures, which are protected under multiple federal laws."The Florida manatee is a subspecies of the West Indian manatee, which was classified as an endangered species in 1973, according to The Washington Post, although their status has since been lowered to threatened. Currently, manatees are protected federally under the Endangered Species Act and the Marine Mammal Protection Act, and on the state level under the Florida Manatee Sanctuary Act of 1978, The New York Times reported. Harassing a manatee carries a federal penalty of up to $50,000 and a year in jail, and a state penalty of up to $500 and 60 days in jail.The affected manatee was first discovered in the Homosassa River in Citrus County by Hailey Warrington, a family boat charter operator, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported. Warrington said she saw the manatee while on a boat tour and took photos and a video to report the incident."This is just disturbing. One hundred percent disturbing," Warrington told the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. "It's something we don't see very often. When we do see it, it hurts our heart."The USFWS said that the letters appear to have been etched in algae and that the animal was not seriously harmed. Warrington claimed that while the etching reached the skin, it did not appear to leave a wound. The animal seemed healthy, but stressed.
Ocean acidification is transforming California mussel shells --The large mollusk known as the California mussel makes its home in the rocky shoreline along the Pacific Coast from Mexico to Alaska. Considered a "foundational" animal, Mytilus californianus provides homes for hundreds of other species and offers a rich food source for species ranging from spiny lobsters to humans.As the waters off our coasts change due to human influences, scientists at the University of California San Diego are finding that the composition of California mussel shells is weakening as it becomes more tolerant of acidic conditions.Comparing new data with samples collected in the 1950s, UC San Diego Division of Biological Sciences graduate student Elizabeth Bullard and Professor Kaustuv Roy found that ocean acidification is transforming the composition of California mussel shells from mostly the mineral aragonite to the mineral calcite. The results are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.Aragonite is much stronger than calcite and makes for a better shell to protect against predators and wave energy, two things that are expected to increase with warming waters. Calcite, on the other hand, is much weaker but does not dissolve as easily as aragonite--making a better shell material if the waters are acidifying. Experts had expected aragonite, the stronger of the two substances, to emerge as the dominant mussel shell mineral due to its preference to form in warmer waters. Instead, the new study has shown that the weaker but more stable calcite mineral is now the dominant shell substance, a response linked to increases in ocean water acidity. "We found that these mussels are indeed secreting more calcite today than they were 60 years ago," said Bullard. "Lower pH eats away the shells these animals are able to create, so it's considered a major problem for marine organisms. There are 303 species that are associated with the California mussel, so if we lose the mussel we lose other species, some of which are really important to things like our fisheries and recreation."
Wildfire smoke to blame for up to half of soot pollution in parts of western US: research - Wildfire smoke has resulted in as much as half of the soot pollution in parts of the western U.S., according to a study that was published Tuesday. Researchers determined that more than half of the concentrations of the pollutant in some areas came from wildfires in recent years and that their smoke made up 25 percent of soot pollution across the entire U.S.Using satellite-based fire and smoke data, the researchers also determined that pollution from fires had increased substantially over the course of a decade. The amount of area burned by wildfires has been rising, and other studies have linked the increase, at least in part, to climate change. Recent research has also linked exposure to various types of pollution to worse COVID-19 outcomes. Experts also told The Hill last year that wildfires that had been occurring could exacerbate the effects of the disease for a variety of reasons.The new findings were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America journal. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently said that in 2020, the U.S. saw 22 climate and weather-related disasters that caused more than $1 billion in damage. These disasters included the wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington state that burned for weeks, claiming several lives and worsening air quality.
Report: Minnesota air quality good — but not for everyone - A new report says Minnesota's air quality is good overall, but isn't the same in all parts of the state. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency is required to report to the Legislature every two years on how clean the state’s air is. The most recent report, sent to the Legislature on Jan. 1, says Minnesota is meeting federal standards for air pollution.But it also says people in some areas experience pollution levels high enough to affect the health of children, the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. "In areas that have, you know, lower economic opportunity or communities of color, we're not seeing the same air quality that we see in wealthier areas or whiter communities as well,” said Craig McDonnell, assistant commissioner for air policy at the MPCA. “So the air quality kind of depends on where you're at." Traffic is one of the main drivers of air pollution, and McDonnell said neighborhoods near freeways or in high-traffic areas often have higher levels of pollutants, such as ozone and fine particulate matter. With the retirement of coal-fired power plants, emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels have declined, McDonnell said. However, pollution is still being driven by multiple factors, he said, including industrial plants and neighborhood sources. “Think about somebody mowing their lawn or having a fire in the winter,” McDonnell said. “That’s still a source of air pollution as well.” In recent years, Minnesota has seen more poor air quality days due to smoke from wildfires in other states — a problem likely to worsen with climate change, and become more difficult to predict, said Kari Palmer, MPCA’s air assessment manager. The report also noted that Minnesota is not on pace to meet its goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mercury.
Overnight Energy: EPA rule exempts many polluting industries from future air regulations - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Tuesday finalized a rule that would allow future greenhouse gas limits only on power plants, sidestepping oversight over the oil and gas industry, iron and steel manufacturers and other polluting industries. The new rule from the EPA argues that only sectors whose pollution accounts for more than 3 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are “considered to contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution.” The rule is a direct response to a 2017 executive order from President Trump that asked agencies to “immediately review existing regulations that potentially burden the development or use of domestically produced energy resources.” David Doniger, senior strategic director of the Climate and Clean Energy Program at the Natural Resources Defence Council, called the EPA’s new 3 percent figure arbitrary, given that the Clean Air Act called on the agency to regulate any industry that contributes significantly to dangerous air pollution. “Well surprise, surprise. The only industry above that is the power sector, and power way above that, but even next biggest one, which is oil and gas and their methane leakage, falls blow that threshold, so all other industries would get a free pass on the principle section of the Clean Air Act that allows you to regulation greenhouse gasses,” he said. “It’s a get out of the Clean Air Act free pass to every industry whose greenhouse gas emissions are smaller than the power sector,” he added. According to the calculations from the EPA, the oil and gas sector contributes between 2.5 percent and 3 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. But because the industry is responsible for methane emissions, its greenhouse gas contributions can be especially dangerous, given that the gas is 80 times more potent than carbon over a 20-year period. Oil refiners, boiler makers, cement manufacturers, iron and steel producers and landfills would also not face additional greenhouse gas regulations. “EPA’s new significance framework lays out how the agency will determine when stationary sources of greenhouse gases trigger a requirement" to set new standards, EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a release announcing the rule. The rule won’t take effect for 60 days after it is published in the federal register, meaning it is likely to be blocked by the incoming Biden administration, which has pledged to sign an executive order on Day 1 freezing the implementation of any “midnight rules” that have not yet taken effect. But if left to stand, the rule would make a significant dent in the Biden administration’s ability to meet its stated goal of getting the U.S. on a path to net-zero emissions by 2050. Read more about the rule here.
Aerosols from pollution, desert storms, and forest fires may intensify thunderstorms - Observations of Earth's atmosphere show that thunderstorms are often stronger in the presence of high concentrations of aerosols—airborne particles too small to see with the naked eye.For instance, lightning flashes are more frequent along shipping routes, where freighters emit particulates into the air, compared to the surrounding ocean. And the most intense thunderstorms in the tropics brew up over land, where aerosols are elevated by both natural sources and human activities.While scientists have observed a link between aerosols and thunderstorms for decades, the reason for this association is not well-understood.Now MIT scientists have discovered a new mechanism by which aerosols may intensify thunderstorms in tropical regions. Using idealized simulations of cloud dynamics, the researchers found that high concentrations of aerosols can enhance thunderstorm activity by increasing the humidity in the air surrounding clouds.This new mechanism between aerosols and clouds, which the team has dubbed the "humidity-entrainment" mechanism, could be incorporated into weather and climate models to help predict how a region's thunderstorm activity might vary with changing aerosollevels."It's possible that, by cleaning up pollution, places might experience fewer storms," says Tim Cronin, assistant professor of atmospheric science at MIT. "Overall, this provides a way that humans may have a footprint on the climate that we haven't really appreciated much in the past." Cronin and his co-author Tristan Abbott, a graduate student in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, have published their results today in the journal Science.
Increase in Lightning Strikes Expected to Ignite More Wildfires
--As the planet's temperature warms, the frequency of lightning strikes is expected to grow with it,Environmental Journal reported.Currently, lightning strikes the earth's surface nearly eight million times a day. This number is expected to dramatically increase as global temperatures rise, according to a study published by Science. The U.S., for example, could experience a 50 percent increase in the number of lightning strikes by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed."The distribution of lightning is directly linked to the Earth's climate," Nathan Neal, a marketing director at Biral, wrote. "The daily and seasonal heating of the continental landmasses results in large temperature fluctuations, which influences atmospheric stability and the development of thunderstorms."But lightning is more than just a symptom of climate change. It also directly impacts the global climate, Eos reported. When lightning strikes, it produces nitrogen oxides, a strong greenhouse gas.In the fastest-warming part of the planet, the Arctic has reported an increase in lightning over the past decade. A recent study suggests that the number of annual summertime lightning strikes above a latitude of 65° North rose from around 35,000 in 2010 to nearly 250,000 in 2020, Nature reported.These results are a "symptom of global climate change," Robert Holzworth, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Washington in Seattle and leader of the study, said in reference to the Arctic's two-year record for the largest area of land burnt by wildfires, some of which were ignited by lightning.The Arctic is not alone in experiencing an increase in lightning strikes and resulting wildfires. In August, 20,203 lightning strikes were recorded in California within just four days. Part of what CalFire called the "fire siege," the four-day event recorded more than half of the month's typical lightning total. More than 700 new wildfires followed, burning an area larger than the state of Delaware, The Washington Post reported.
Research confirms increase in river flooding and droughts in U.S., Canada - The number of "extreme streamflow" events observed in river systems have increased significantly across the United States and Canada over the last century, according to a study from Dartmouth College.In regions where water runoff from snowmelt is a main contributor to river streamflow, the study found a rise in extreme events, such as flooding.In drought-prone regions in the western and southeastern U.S., the study found that the frequency of extreme low-flow events has also become more common, particularly during summer and fall.The research, published in Science Advances, analyzed records dating back to 1910 to confirm the effects of recent changes in precipitation levels on river systems."Floods and droughts are extremely expensive and often life-threatening events," said Evan Dethier, a postdoctoral researcher at Dartmouth and the lead author of the paper. "It's really important that we have good estimates of how likely extreme events are to occur and whether that likelihood is changing."Although changes in precipitation and extreme streamflows have been observed in the past, there has been no research consensus on whether droughts and floods have actually increased in frequency.Past research efforts have mostly focused on annual peak flows, potentially missing important seasonal changes to extreme low-flow events that can be pulled from daily streamflow records. Those efforts have also been hampered by the mixing of data from regions that have different precipitation patterns and natural seasonal cycles. According to the research paper: The results demonstrate that "increases in the frequency of both high- and low-flow extreme streamflow events are, in fact, widespread." "Previous attempts to analyze regional pattern in streamflow were usually based on fixed geographical regions that were largely unsuccessful," The Dartmouth study combined 541 rivers in the U.S. and Canada into 15 hydrological regions organized by seasonal streamflow characteristics, such as whether streams flood due to tropical storms or rain falling on melting snow. This grouping allowed for more sensitive detection of trends in extreme flow events on both an annual and seasonal basis.
Drought-Stricken Colorado River Basin Could See Additional 20% Drop in Water Flow by 2050 -- Colorado is no stranger to drought. The current one is closing in on 20 years, and a rainy or snowy season here and there won't change the trajectory. This is what climate change has brought. "Aridification" is what Bradley Udall formally calls the situation in the western U.S. But perhaps more accurately, he calls it hot drought – heat-induced lack of water due to climate change. That was the core of research released in 2017 by Udall, a senior climate and water scientist at Colorado State University's Colorado Water Center, and Jonathan Overpeck at the University of Michigan.Their revelation was that the heat from climate change was propelling drought. "Previous comparable droughts were caused by a lack of precipitation, not high temperatures," the study said. And all the factors at play were having compounding effects on each other that made the situation even worse. Those impacts were being felt most acutely on the biggest water system in the West – the Colorado River Basin. Without a dramatic and fast reversal in greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change, Udall and Overpeck said, the additional loss of flow in the basin could be more than 20% by mid-century and 35% at the century's end – worse than currently assumed."I always say climate change is water change," says Udall, whose father was Arizona congressman Morris (Mo) Udall, an iconic environmental activist. "It means too much water, not enough water, water at the wrong time. It means reduced water quality. You get all of these things together as the earth warms up." In Colorado it's all pretty much coming true. The drought is the second worst 20-year period in the past 1,200 years, according to Udall. This summer/fall alone had some of the hottest spells on record and the worst wildfire season ever. On the other hand, 2013 brought catastrophic floods to the Front Range. "I got 17 inches of water in my house here in four days. It's all part of the same change," Udall says. It's forced Colorado to start facing the reality that its perpetual struggle for water can no longer be written off as cyclical weather that will all balance-out over short periods of time. It's climate change at work, and it requires long-term planning and likely fundamental changes to the paradigm of how the state gets, uses, and preserves its water.The state and individual municipalities are beginning to address their new reality with policies that range from the obvious – conservation, just using less water, to the more innovative – considering using beaver dams to restore mountain wetlands and generally remediating the landscape to better handle water. But all those actions and more must face the political reality of the longstanding way water-sharing is handled in the basin. It pits state against state, rural against urban, agriculture against, well, everyone.
Record broken for number of billion-dollar US weather and climate disasters in 2020 --U.S. weather and climate disasters hit an all-time high in 2020 with 22 separate catastrophes that cost more than $1 billion each. The previous record for most billion-dollar weather and climate disasters was 16, which occurred in 2011 and 2017, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcement on Friday. Among the events from this record-breaking year were the fires in California, the western drought, 10 severe storms, three tornadoes and seven hurricanes. These events left 262 people dead in addition to their severe economic impacts. Overall, there was $95 billion in damage, the fourth most costly year since 1980.“2020 is the sixth consecutive year (2015-2020) in which 10 or more billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events have impacted the United States,” the report says. The events in 2020 that cost the most were Hurricane Laura, at $19 billion; the wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington coming in at $16.5 billion; and the August derecho in Iowa and Illinois, which cost $11 billion. The record for most damages financially since 1980 is from 2017 when 16 weather disasters totaled $321.8 billion. "The number and cost of weather and climate disasters are increasing in the United States due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., more assets at risk), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage a hazard of given intensity — wind speed, or flood depth, for example — causes at a location), and the fact that climate change is playing an increasing role in the increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters," NOAA climatologist Adam Smith told The Hill. Since 1980, there have been a total of 285 events that have cost more than $1 billion. These events combined have cost the United States $1.877 trillion in damage.
Winter storm brings heaviest snowfall in decades to areas of Texas - A winter storm unloaded more snow in Texas than some areas have received in decades at the end of the weekend, with wintry scenes reaching Louisiana and Mississippi by Sunday night. The snow stretched all the way from the northernmost parts of Colorado beginning Saturday, to eastern Texas by Sunday. The swath of heaviest snow, with 6-9 inches of accumulation in 24 hours, stretched from near Lubbock to Abilene and just west of Waco, Texas. Waco, Texas, received 4.4 inches of snow on Sunday, making it the highest snowfall total the city has received since 1982 and the 10th highest 24-hour snowfall total on record, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The snowfall on Sunday also smashed the daily record set back in 1973 of 1.1 inches. Snow-covered, slippery roadways were reported throughout the region, including along some of the major highways such as interstates 20 and 35. AccuWeather National News Reporter Bill Wadell interviewed some residents of Stephenville, Texas, who told him they haven't seen this much snow in years. Some residents were seen using the hood of a car as a sled for multiple people. Stephenville reported 8 inches of snow by Sunday evening.Winter storm warnings stretched from New Mexico and Texas to Louisiana, southern Arkansas and Mississippi at the height of the storm over the weekend.The worst of the storm stayed to the south of Dallas, where a rain and snow mix throughout Sunday led to only a trace of snow accumulating.Farther south, however, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott posted a video on Twittershowing snow covering the grounds of the Governor's Mansion in the capital city of Austin. The city officially reported 1.3 inches at the Austin–Bergstrom International Airport, but just north of town, 3-5 inches of snow was reported.
Powerful winter storm hits southern U.S., leaving more than 150 000 customers without power - A powerful winter storm swept through Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi on Sunday, January 10, 2021, leaving more than 150 000 customers without power. Parts of Texas registered up to 23 cm (9 inches) of snow, causing power outages, making travel difficult, and forcing some schools and government offices to close. Generally, around 10 to 15 cm (4 to 6 inches) fell across portions of Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Houston counties, NWS said. A trace to 5 cm (2 inches) fell in portions Washington, Grimes, Walker, and Trinity counties. A wintry mixture of rain, sleet, and snow was reported as far south as the city of Houston. Lubbock received 19.3 cm (7.60 inches) of snow yesterday, breaking old daily snowfall record of 11.4 cm (4.50 inches) set back in 1936. However, some parts places such as Denver City and Lamesa registered 22.8 cm (9 inches), Welch got 21.6 cm (8.5 inches) and Hobbs 20 cm (8 inches). The storm moved into Louisiana and Mississippi later on Sunday, dropping up to 10 cm (4 inches) of snow and prompting the Louisiana State Police to warn people to stay off the roads if possible. State government offices in 29 Louisiana parishes will be closed Monday, January 11, including in Caddo Parish. In Mississippi, more than a dozen school districts were closed, delayed, or scheduled for virtual learning on January 11. At the height of the storm, more than 150 000 customers in Texas and Louisiana were without power. As of 12:00 UTC on January 11, 103 800 customers are still without power in Texas and 46 800 in Louisiana.
Intense cold waves bring rare snowfall to Taiwan - -- (videos) An intense cold wave is affecting parts of Taiwan over the past couple of days, with temperatures dropping below 10 °C (50 °F) and rare snow and freezing temperatures at higher elevations. In just 17 hours to Friday morning, January 8, 2021, local authorities reported 18 sudden deaths. While the cause is most likely cold weather, officials said an investigation is still in progress. This is the second blast of very cold air and snow to hit the country since the end of December 2020. The third wave is expected on Monday, January 11. Taiwan's mountainous areas were the first to feel the effects, with temperatures down to the freezing point and rare snowfall. While the highest elevations of the country have at least some snow each winter, some places saw their first snow in several years on Friday.
Historic cold wave and heavy snow hit South Korea - A cold snap has gripped South Korea, bringing more than 0.3 m (1 foot) of snow and prompting a cold warning in Seoul for the first time in 57 years on Thursday, January 7, 2021.Heavy snowfall paralyzed roads in Seoul, leaving residents stranded in an hour."The snow suddenly came and hit so fast and hard," resident Dominic Phua told The Strait Times, adding that he saw a biker covered in snow, vehicles skidding, and two buses with a car stuck between them.More than 0.3 m (1 foot) of snow fell in many areas, including mountainous regions on Jeju.Cold wave alerts are in place everywhere, with a cold wave warning issued in the capital for the first time in 57 years. It was the first cold wave warning since the country introduced alert systems in 1964.Subway trains experienced breakdowns, while some doors got stuck in the freezing cold. Prime Minister Chung Sye-Kyun issued an emergency order to speed up snow clearing. More than 8 000 vehicles and some 17 000 personnel were deployed to clear the snow. According to the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA), Seoul plunged to -16.1 °C (3 °F) on Thursday morning, with a wind chill of -25.3 °C (-13.5 °F). KMA said frigid temperatures were caused by cold air flowing down from Siberia.
Powerful winter storm slams Japan with record snow, claims 10 lives and strands more than 1 200 vehicles A powerful winter storm is affecting Japan since Thursday, January 7, 2021, dropping record-breaking snow, stranding more than 1 200 vehicles, and claiming the lives of at least 10 people in snow-related incidents on January 9 and 10. Heavy snowfall fell across wide areas of the country, forcing some prefectures to request the Ground Self-Defense Force's help in rescue operations. Hokuriku region received a record amount of snowfall on Friday, January 8, some of it falling in a matter of hours. In 3 hours, parts of Hokuriku registered at least 15 cm (5.9 inches) of snow. In just 12 hours, Takaoka, Toyama Prefecture, received 59 cm (1.9 feet), Toyama 48 cm (1.5 feet) -- the highest ever for the capital of the prefecture. As of 09:00 LT on January 8, the snow cover in Himi was 6 times more than in an average year and 5.5 times more in Asahi, The Asahi Shimbun reported. According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 10 people died in snow-related incidents in Hokkaido, and Tohoku and Hokuriku areas on Saturday and Sunday, January 9 and 10, where the storm dropped up to 120 cm (3.9 feet) of snow since Saturday. Four people died after falling from their roofs while cleaning them, one died in a snowblower accident, and 2 were found dead in their cars, one of them was partially buried in snow. Officials are urging people not to go up onto their roofs alone, or if they do, tie a rope around their waist and fasten it securely to a sturdy part of the roof.
Hong Kong records its coldest temperature since 1988, large scale crop damage reported - Hong Kong has registered its coldest temperature since 1988 as the mercury in Ta Kwu Ling hit 0.9 °C (33.6 °F) on Wednesday morning, January 13, 2021.According to The Standard, temperatures plummeted below the freezing point in some parts of New Territories on Wednesday morning. Ta Kwu Ling recorded 0.9 °C (33.6 °F) -- its lowest temperature since 1988 when records there began. Farmers in Sheung Shui reported large scale damages as the frost covered many crops.Hong Kong Observatory said a phenomenon called radiative cooling is behind the piercing cold. Temperatures are expected to get warmer in the next few days, before a reverse at the beginning of the following week.Radiation cooling is the maximum cooling of the ground which happens under clear skies, dry conditions, and light winds. During winter, a huge temperature difference sometimes occurs between the urban area and the New Territories.The winter monsoon will slightly moderate in the next couple of days, bringing warmer temperatures from Thursday to Saturday, January 14 to 6. Cold temperatures will still be felt in the morning over inland areas.Another surge of winter monsoon will impact Hong Kong early next week, bringing cool temperatures and some rain in the middle and latter parts of next week.
Dal Lake freezes, Srinagar records coldest night in 30 years as severe cold wave grips Kashmir, India - Kashmir's Dal Lake froze on Thursday, January 14, 2021, while capital Srinagar recorded its coldest night in 30 years as a severe cold wave gripped the valley. The summer capital registered a low of -8.4 °C (16.9°F), the coldest since 1991 when temperatures dropped to -11.8 °C (10.8 °F), according to the local weather department. In 1995, the minimum temperature was -11.3 °C (11.7 °F). The lowest recorded minimum temperature in Srinagar was -14.4 °C (6 °F) set in 1893. Pahalgam, which serves as the base camp for the annual Amarnath Yatra in southern Kashmir, registered a minimum temperature of -11.1 °C (12 °F). The resort was the coldest recorded place in Jammu and Kashmir. In Gulmarg, the minimum temperature was -7 °C (19.4 °F). The rest of the valley is reeling from severe cold. As a result, a major part of Dal Lake froze, as well as several other water bodies.A thick layer of ice has settled over several roads elsewhere in the valley, creating difficult driving conditions.
Freezing temperatures in Saudi Arabia's Asir for the first time since 1971 - (videos) Freezing temperatures and snowfall have been reported in Saudi Arabia's Asir Province on January 10, 2021, leaving urban areas, mountains, and deserts covered in snow.The temperatures in the region dropped below -2 °C (28.4 °F) for the first time in 50 years, according to local media.Saudi Arabia’s meteorology office urged residents to keep warm and avoid venturing to isolated places.Asir is located in the SW part of Saudi Arabia, on the border with Yemen.January is Asir's coldest month, with an average temperature of 15 °C (59 °F) -- low 8 °C (46 F), high 22 °C (72 °F).
Slow recovery after worst snowstorm since 1971 hits Spain - A moist, low-pressure weather system over the Atlantic ocean collided with a cold air mass sitting over western Europe on January 7 and 8, 2021, resulting in heavy rainfall and flash floods in southern parts of Spain, and the heaviest snowfall in central, northern, and eastern parts of the country since 1971. The storm -- named Filomena by Spain's Meteorological Agency (AEMET) -- left hundreds of roads impassable and at least 3 people dead.Capital Madrid was engulfed with rare, widespread accumulations between 20 and 30 cm (8 to 12 inches) on Friday, January 8, resulting in severe traffic disruption. Some areas in central, northern, and eastern Spain recorded up to 50 cm (20 inches) of snow. Nearly 700 roads and highways were impassable across the country, forcing thousands of people to spend the night in their vehicles and prompting rescue operations for a number of drivers suffering the early onset of hypothermia.In total, more than 2 500 trapped drivers were rescued by emergency workers.Madrid Barajas International Airport had all incoming and outgoing flights suspended, leaving hundreds of passengers waiting for the weather to clear up. The country’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) declared it the largest snowfall in the region since 1971. In southern parts of the country, torrential rains led to flash floods. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas with huge waves forced the evacuation of 65 people from a ferry that ran aground while trying to approach a dock on the Gran Canaria island. The recovery was slow over the weekend due to lack of salt and snowplows but many residents armed with picks and shovels joined municipal workers and soldiers to remove snow from the streets. On Monday, January 11, they managed to clear main roads and fallen tree branches, but most pavements, smaller roads, and residential areas were still impassable. Some supermarkets ran out of fresh produce, but most trains and flights had resumed operations on Monday, Reuters reported. While convoys of trucks stranded in the snow since Friday started arriving on Monday, the Spanish supermarket association urged customers to behave responsibly in the wake of a complicated situation.
Central Spain records temperatures of -25C after snowstorm - BBC News - People in central Spain are struggling as a deep freeze follows the weekend's heavy snow, leading to treacherous conditions. Officials have warned the elderly to stay at home. At least seven people have died due to the weather - the two latest victims were homeless people in Barcelona. The temperature plunged to -25C (-13F) in Molina de Aragón and Teruel, in mountains east of Madrid - Spain's coldest night for at least 20 years. Deep snow left by Storm Filomena has turned to ice, disrupting transport. There has been an extraordinary quantity of snow and ice for Spain, where winters are usually quite mild. Molina de Aragón, where the coldest overnight temperature was recorded, is 197km (122 miles) north-east of Madrid. It lived up to its nickname, "the Spanish Siberia". "We're going to have this cold for a few more days, but we all pull together," local woman Yoli Asensio told the BBC's Guy Hedgecoe. "Day-to-day life is difficult," she added. "There's so much snow about, the access to homes and roads is blocked. Some older people have had falls." Besides the two deaths in Barcelona, at least five others are known to have died due to the cold: two in Madrid, two in Málaga and one in Zaragoza. In pictures: Europe's unusual January weather The overnight temperature in Madrid itself fell to -16C, and on Monday the capital's hospitals - already under great pressure because of Covid-19 - struggled to cope with patients who had slipped on the ice, breaking bones. Medical sources told El Mundo daily that there were 1,200 fracture cases on Monday in the Madrid region's hospitals, caused by accidents on the ice - an average of 50 an hour.
Reindeer deaths linked to increasingly erratic Arctic weather - During winter in the Arctic, reindeer eat lichens and plants they find beneath the snow. But erratic winter weather can make it hard for them to get to their food.“We might get a snowfall in October, but then it will rain, and then it will freeze, and then it might snow again, and then it might rain again, and then freeze again, and … then the lichen and other winter fodder will be encased in ice,” says Bruce Forbes of the University of Lapland in Finland.This alternating rain and snow is not unusual. But he says that as the climate warms, “what’s new is the intensity of the rain, the extent of the area over which it rains heavily, and then the thickness and impenetrability of the ice crust.”If the ice is very thick, reindeer cannot break through it to reach their food, so they can starve. “We’re talking tens of thousands of animals starving in individual events,” Forbes says. Many Indigenous herders in the Arctic depend on reindeer for their livelihoods, so the losses are devastating for the animals and human communities, too.
Category 5 atmospheric river brings flooding rain and strong winds to Oregon and Washington, U.S. (videos) An exceptional atmospheric river rated Category 5 (AR 5) is soaking the Pacific Northwest, bringing flooding rain and strong winds in parts of coastal Oregon and Washington, where up to 8 600 customers were left without power on Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Threats of flooding, mudslides, and avalanches continue into Wednesday morning, January 13, before the moisture flow heads offshore and dissipates. In Oregon, Portland General Electric reported more than 5 000 customers lost electricity on Tuesday night, while 3 600 were without power in Multnomah County during the severe weather's onslaught. The atmospheric river was classified as Category 5 (on a scale of 1 - 5) by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes. "Rain gauges have reported 6-hour rainfall totals between 38 and 51 mm (1.5 and 2 inches) across the higher terrain," wrote the National Weather Service (NWS) in Portland. The minimum security facility at Coffee Creek Correctional Facility in Wilsonville also lost power and was running on a generator, according to a spokesperson for the Oregon Department of Corrections. A high wind warning was in place through midnight on the north Oregon coast, including Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, Netarts, and Pacific City. KGW chief meteorologist Matt Zaffino forecasts isolated amounts of rain in areas such as the North Coast Range and Mount Saint Helens into Wednesday morning before heavy rain ends "as the Northwest shifts to mainly dry weather through the weekend." In parts of Washington County, road closures were reported due to flooding including in Beaverton. Floodwaters also engulfed Highway 101 in Seaside.The Willapa Hills in Washington and areas of north Oregon received around 102 mm (4 inches) of rain as of early Tuesday, Seattle 43 mm (1.7 inches), with nearly 76 mm (3 inches) in Olympia. "With already saturated soils and rain continuing, slopes are unstable and will remain so for the next few days," warned NWS in Seattle. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, about half of all rivers in western Washington were flowing above or much above normal.
Deadly windstorm rolls through Pacific Northwest, more than 600 000 customers without power (videos) A powerful windstorm hit the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, January 13, 2021, leaving at least two people dead and more than half a million people without electricity. The storm left a trail of damage, caused a landslide that shut down a highway, and produced a historic wind gust of 114 km/h (71 mph) at Spokane International Airport. More than 430 000 customers lost electrical service elsewhere in Washington state and Oregon, officials said. A wind gust of 114 km/h (71 mph) was recorded at the Spokane International Airport, making it as powerful as the historic 2015 storm. One woman lost her life on Wednesday morning after a tree collapsed on her car at the 27th Avenue and Post Street, the Spokane police reported. Another fatality was confirmed in North Idaho, where a man was killed on Highway 97 after a tree came off the hillside adjacent to the highway and hit his vehicle. The victim succumbed to his injuries. The fire department personnel rescued a woman from her home on 3rd Avenue after she was trapped by a downed tree. The victim sustained chest injuries and was taken to the hospital. As of Thursday, January 14, at least 136 808 are still without power in Washington, 34 838 in Idaho, 21 556 in Oregon, and 16 57 in Montana, according to poweroutage.us. The storm left a trail of damage as many trees blocked roads and houses. The City of Spoken said some trees have been entirely uprooted and could have affected underground utilities. Spokane Mayor Nadine Woodward said Comstock Park lost about 50 trees and the scene "looked like a war zone."
Record rains hit southern Thailand, leaving 3 dead and more than 58 000 households affected by floods -- (videos) Heavy rains affecting southern Thailand over the past 7 days caused severe floods and landslides, leaving at least 3 people dead and more than 58 000 households affected. Heavy rain was influenced by the strong northeastern monsoon and an area of low pressure off the coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Thousands of people living in Songkhla, Yala, and Narathiwat were forced to evacuate their homes after continuous heavy rains caused severe flash floods.Heavy rains in Yala caused the Sai Buri River to burst its banks, flooding homes, and farmland. The director of Yala's Irrigation Project Office, Chusak Sutthi, said the total amount of rainfall to January 9 has broken the record set 10 years ago.In just 24 hours to January 5, Yala recorded 141.9 mm (5.58 inches) of rain and Narathiwat 71.7 mm (2.82 inches). According to Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), as many as 58 497 households are affected across over 30 districts, with 907 people displaced. Heavy downpours were the result of a strong northeastern monsoon, which is covering the mainland and the Gulf of Thailand, and a low pressure system above Malaysia, according to DDPM.
Worst flooding in 50 years leaves 6 dead, 50 000 displaced in Malaysia - At least six people lost their lives and more than 50 000 were displaced after monsoon rains hit Malaysia's east coast, triggering the area's worst flooding in half a century, authorities reported Saturday, January 9, 2021.Heavy rains continued to slam the region, causing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. While flooding hits the area during the rainy season every year, residents in the affected areas described this year's inundation as the worst in decades.Many roads have been shut, including the main expressway that connects the east coast states.The worst affected state is Pahang, where around 27 000 people have been displaced in the past days, the social welfare department said. People in the area complained that narrow and trash-filled drains contributed to the disaster. In one village cut off by waters, people had to ride an excavator as they abandoned their homes, while others were left to swim through deep waters. "We are very concerned for the safety and wellbeing of more than 50 000 people who have been evacuated and swamped by these terrible floods in the middle of a worsening COVID-19 pandemic," said Malaysian Red Crescent Honorary Secretary General Haji Hakim Hamzah. "These floods are getting worse by the hour, turning large areas into inland seas," Hamzah added.
At least 12 killed, 18 injured as two large landslides hit Java, Indonesia -At least 12 people have been killed and 18 others injured after two landslides caused by heavy rain hit West Java Province, Indonesia on Saturday, January 9, 2021. The death toll is preliminary as of Sunday morning, January 10.The landslides took place in West Java's Cihanjuang village, about 150 km (95 miles) southeast of capital Jakarta at 16:00 LT (09:00 UTC) and 19:30 LT (12:30 UTC). The second landslide was much bigger than the first one and it caused more fatalities than the first one.Raditya Jati, a spokesman for the Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) said, the first landslide was triggered by high rainfall and unstable soil conditions."The subsequent landslide occurred while officers were still evacuating victims around the first landslide area," Jati said. Among the casualties were the head of a local disaster relief agency and army captain who were helping rescue survivors of the first landslide that hit on Saturday afternoon, January 9.
Severe floods and landslides damage more than 10 000 homes in West Java, death toll rises to 21 with 19 missing, Indonesia – (several videos) Severe weather in West Java, Indonesia, has triggered severe flooding that damaged more than 10 000 homes, according to the disaster management agency BNPB. Rescue efforts continue as of January 13, 2021, to retrieve missing people after landslides hit Sumedang District on January 9. 21 deaths have been confirmed, while 19 others remain missing.Heavy rains on January 10 caused the Citarum River to overflow, affecting the districts of Soreang, Dayeuhkolot, Baleendah, and Bojongsoang.Floodwater was more than 1 m (3 feet) in some areas. According to the BNPB, up to 10 572 homes, 28 schools, and 46 places of worship sustained damages.About 20 409 families or 66 400 people have been affected. Evacuations were reported, but figures were yet to be available.Meanwhile, rescue efforts continue on Wednesday to locate people that went missing after landslides hit Cihanjuang Village in Cimanggung, Sumedang on January 9.Search and rescue efforts were often hindered by the severe weather and torrential rains that potentially trigger another mudslide, said Bandung's Search and Rescue Agency (SAR) head, Deden Ridwansyah.As of Wednesday, January 13, authorities confirmed 21 deaths, while 19 remain missing. The final death toll is subject to change, SAR noted.
At least 37 people killed, hundreds injured as M6.2 earthquake hits West Sulawesi, Indonesia (videos) At least 42 people have been killed and more than 600 injured after a shallow M6.2 earthquake hit West Sulawesi, Indonesia at 18:28 UTC on January 14, 2021 (01:28 LT, January 15). Many people are still trapped under the rubble and rescue workers fear the death toll will continue rising. The quake was preceded by M5.7 at 06:35 UTC. According to Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, the epicenter was located 6 km (3.7 miles) NE of Majene city (population 37 715). At least 8 people died, 637 were injured and 15 000 displaced in Majene, according to the country's National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB). Strong shaking in the city lasted up to 7 seconds, damaging 300 houses. In the neighboring Mamuju (population 15 000), an additional 34 deaths were reported. Severe damage was reported in both cities, including badly damaged military command offices, hotels, and government buildings. Safaruddin Sanusi, head of West Sulawesi's Communications and Information Department, told CNN that nearly half of the buildings in Mamuju have been destroyed. Three of Mamuju's largest hospitals were badly damaged and one collapsed -- Mitra Manakara, with patients and staff still trapped under the rubble. "The hospital is flattened -- it collapsed," one of the rescuers said. BNPB said a series of earthquakes in the past 24 hours had caused at least three landslides and electricity had been cut.Rescuers are still searching for survivors, hampered by a lack of heavy equipment and lack of communication among rescue teams. The full extent of the damage is still emerging. Authorities warned residents that the area could be hit by strong aftershocks and to avoid the beachfront in case of a tsunami. "The aftershocks could be as strong, or stronger, than this morning's quake," Dwikorita Karnawati, chief of the meteorological agency, said. "There is potential for a tsunami from subsequent aftershocks... Don't wait for a tsunami first because they can happen very quickly," she added.
Indonesia Earthquake Kills Dozens and Destroys Hospital - At least 42 people are confirmed dead and more than 600 injured after a 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck the Indonesian island of Sulawesi early Friday morning.The earthquake and subsequent aftershocks also damaged more than 300 homes and two hotels, and destroyed a hospital and the regional governor's office, leaving people trapped under rubble and forcing around 15,000 to flee their homes, Reuters reported. The global pandemic complicates matters, likely making it harder to provide aid."[T]his (disaster) was one of our fears and now we are putting all of that planning and protocols into place," Jan Gelfand, head of the International Federation of Red Cross in Indonesia, told Reuters.The earthquake struck at 1:28 a.m. Jakarta time at a depth of 6.2 miles, Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency said, according to CNN. The quake hit 3.7 miles northeast of the city of Majene, killing at least eight people, injuring 637 and damaging 300 homes. It also impacted the nearby area of Mamuju, where the death toll has reached 34 so far. Nearly half of the structures there have also been destroyed, Safaruddin Sanusi, the head of West Sulawesi's Communications and Information Department, told CNN.Sanusi said rescue workers' priority involved finding people in collapsed buildings. Unfortunately, the death toll will likely rise as this work continues."I'm afraid to say how many fatalities," Ardiansyah, a West Sulawesi emergency response official, told The New York Times. "We are still evacuating and erecting shelters. Many people are buried under the ruins."Among the collapsed or damaged buildings were four of Mamuju's largest hospitals, Sanusi told CNN."Mitra Manakara [Hospital] is flattened by this earthquake, while three others, Mamuju Central Hospital, Bhayangkara Hospital and Regional Hospital are also in [a] bad situation," he said.At Mitra Manakara Hospital, eight people died and around 60 were safely evacuated, BBC News reported."It happened so quickly, around 10 seconds," local police spokesman Syamsu Ridwan told the BBC.The earthquake also triggered three landslides, cut power and damaged bridges, Reuters reported.Indonesia is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, a hotbed for seismic activity. In 2018, a 7.5 earthquake and 18-foot tsunami also devastated the island of Sulawesi. The final death toll surpassed 2,000, according to BBC News. Friday's earthquake did not trigger a tsunami, but officials warned that aftershocks still could.
Bright fireball explodes over Norway, ground impact recorded south of Løten - A bright fireball exploded over Norway at 23:21 UTC on January 4, 2021 (00:21 LT, January 5), producing a loud bang that was heard by many people, particularly those in Ullensaker. Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) said ground impact was recorded at 23:24 UTC, 15 to 20 km (9 - 12.4 miles) S of their measuring station at Løten. On Tuesday, residents in Norway reported a bright fireball with a loud bang as the object entered the atmosphere. The sound was heard by people in the municipality of Ullensaker. According to the Norwegian meteor network, the object traveled at a speed of 50 000 km/h (31 000 mph). The meteor penetrated very far into the atmosphere and gave a fairly powerful bang, an indicator that meteorites have fallen to the ground, said Steinar Midtskogen with the meteor network. "The signal came from a southern direction and coincides with reports of sound heard by people in Ullensaker municipality," NORSAR wrote in a press release. The agency noted that the meteorite possibly weighed up to 2 kg (2.2 lbs). However, researchers said it may be a challenge to find the meteorite. "It would have been fun to find it, but it requires first and foremost luck to find a meteor deep in the forest," said Tormod Kværna with NORSTAR. "We are talking about very small rocks, and if they end up somewhere out in the woods and there is snow, then it is almost hopeless to find now," Midtskogen added. "There is an area of several square kilometers that must be searched. I reckon that there may be some smaller meteorites here at a few hundred grams maybe, so it will be a bit like the needle in the haystack. We are talking about stones the size of an apple or smaller."
Covid Took a Bite From U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2020 - The New York Times — America’s greenhouse gas emissions from energy and industry plummeted more than 10 percent in 2020, reaching their lowest levels in at least three decades as the coronavirus pandemic slammed the brakes on the nation’s economy, according to an estimate published Tuesday by the Rhodium Group.The steep drop, however, was the result of extraordinary circumstances and experts warned that the country still faced enormous challenges in getting its planet-warming pollution under control. In the years ahead, United States emissions are widely expected to bounce back once the pandemic recedes and the economy rumbles back to life — unless policymakers take stronger action to clean up the country’s power plants, factories, cars and trucks. “The most significant reductions last year were around transportation, which remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels,” said Kate Larsen, a director at Rhodium Group, a research and consulting firm. “But as vaccines become more prevalent, and depending on how quickly people feel comfortable enough to drive and fly again, we’d expect emissions to rebound unless there are major policy changes put in place.” Before the pandemic hit, America’s emissions had been slowly but steadily declining since 2005, in large part because utilities that generate electricity have been shifting away from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, in favor of cheaper and cleaner natural gas, wind and solar power. Over the past decade, utilities have retired hundreds of coal-burning power plants despite President Trump’s efforts to revive the industry.Then, the coronavirus arrived. As governors placed their states under lockdown last spring and Americans sheltered in place,emissions started plunging across parts of the economy that had rarely seen sustained drops before.Transportation, the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gases, saw a 14.7 percent decline in emissions in 2020 as millions of people stopped driving to work and airlines canceled flights. While travel started picking up again in the latter half of the year as states relaxed their lockdowns, Americans drove 15 percent fewer miles over all last year than they did in 2019 and the demand for jet fuel fell by more than one-third.Emissions from heavy industry, such as steel and cement, dropped 7 percent in 2020 as automakers and other manufacturers churned out fewer goods amid the economic slump. America’s buildings, which produce carbon dioxide when they burn oil or natural gas for heat, saw emissions fall 6.2 percent, driven by both lockdowns and warmer-than-average weather.In the electricity sector, emissions plunged by 10.3 percent in 2020, driven by a sharp decline in coal burning. As electricity demand sagged nationwide, utilities ran their coal plants far less often because coal has become the most expensive fuel in many parts of the country. Instead, they used more natural gas — which produces less carbon dioxide than coal, but still generates significant heat-trapping methane — and drew more heavily on emissions-free wind and solar power.
Atmospheric CO2 in 2021 will reach level 50% higher than before industrial era, says Met Office - Atmospheric CO2 will hit a level this year that is 50 per cent higher than before the start of the industrial revolution, the Met Office has forecast. The grim milestone will come as humans continue to drive emissions through fossil fuel burning and deforestation, scientists say. The Met Office forecasts that CO2 levels in the atmosphere will exceed 417 parts per million (ppm) for several weeks from April to June at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii this year. This is 50 per cent higher than CO2 levels in the late 18th century, when the industrial era began. At this time, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were about 278 ppm, according to the Met Office. Prof Richard Betts, who leads the Met Office’s annual CO2 forecast, told The Independent: “CO2 levels did touch above [417 ppm] at Mauna Loa for a few individual days last year but this is the first time they’ll do it for a few weeks. “It wasn’t until 1986 that CO2 levels were around 25 per cent higher, compared to the pre-industrial. So that took about 200 years to happen. And now we’ve done the next 25 per cent in a little over 30 years. That shows how much the CO2 rise is accelerating.”
Researchers find wildfire smoke is more cooling on climate than computer models assume - A study of biomass burning aerosols led by University of Wyoming researchers revealed that smoke from wildfires has more of a cooling effect on the atmosphere than computer models assume."The study addresses the impact of wildfires on global climate, and we extensively used the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer (Cheyenne)," says Shane Murphy, a UW associate professor of atmospheric science. "Also, the paper used observations from UW and other teams around the world to compare to the climate model results. The main conclusion of the work is that wildfire smoke is more cooling than current models assume." .The composition, size and mixing state of biomass burning aerosols determine the optical properties of smoke plumes in the atmosphere which, in turn, are a major factor in dictating how these aerosols perturb the energy balance in the atmosphere."We found that many of the most advanced climate models simulate biomass burning aerosols or smoke that is darker, or more light absorbing, than what we see in observations," says Brown, of Juneau, Alaska. "This has implications for the climate predictions made by these models."Observations and models used in the study covered a wide temporal range. Africa, South America and Southeastern Asia, in addition to boreal fire regions, were chosen because these are the largest contributors to biomass burning smoke emissions in the world, Brown says.The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) in Cheyenne was used for all of the data processing and the model sensitivity simulations, Brown says. Some of the other model data used for comparison in this study were generated elsewhere. “When we compare global observations of wildfire smoke to simulated wildfire smoke from a collection of climate models, the vast majority of the models have smoke that is more light absorbing than the observations," Brown explains. "This means that more energy from the sun is going toward warming the atmosphere in these models, as opposed to what we see in these field campaigns and laboratory studies, which report less absorbing smoke that has more of a cooling effect by scattering light away from the Earth and back to space." How absorbing these aerosols are in the atmosphere depends on the type of fuel that is burning, as well as the climate of the fire region. Generally, hot, dry grassland fires in Africa and Australia tend to have much darker smoke, which is more absorbing, while cooler, wetter boreal forest fires in North America and Northern Asia tend to have much brighter smoke, which is less absorbing.
NOAA Names 2020 Second-Hottest Year on Record; NASA Says It Tied for Hottest Ever -- Earth had its second-warmest year on record in 2020, just 0.02 degrees Celsius (0.04°F) behind the record set in 2016, and 0.98 degrees Celsius (1.76°F) above the 20th-century average, NOAA reported January 14. NASA and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated 2020 as tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record (NASA rates the margin of error at .05 degrees C); the Japan Meteorological Agency rated 2020 as the warmest year on record. Minor differences in rankings often occur among various research groups, the result of different ways they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic. Global ocean temperatures in 2020 were the third-warmest on record, global land temperatures the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in 2020 for the lowest eight kilometers of the atmosphere were the second-warmest or warmest in the 42-year record, according to the University of Alabama, Huntsville and Remote Sensing Solutions, respectively. The Northern Hemisphere had its warmest year on record in 2020 and the Southern Hemisphere its fifth-warmest. By continent, here are the 2020 temperature rankings: As detailed in a January 12 post at this site by Bob Henson, 2020 for the U.S. was the fifth-warmest year in history going back to 1895. Ten states had their second-warmest year on record and four had their third-warmest year. None of the contiguous 48 states was below-average in temperature in 2020.The remarkable global warmth of 2020 means that the seven warmest years on record since 1880 were the most recent seven years — 2014 through 2020. The near-record global warmth in 2020 is all the more striking since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in more than 100 years and during a year without a strong El Niño. Record-warm global temperatures typically occur during strong El Niño events and when the solar cycle is near its maximum. The warmth of 2020 is a testament to how significantly human-caused global warming is heating the planet. Despite the presence of a prominent La Niña event that began in August, the total heat content of the world's oceans in 2020 was the warmest in recorded human history, according to a January 13, 2021 paper by Cheng et al., Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. In the uppermost 2,000 meters of the oceans, there were 211 to 234 zettajoules more heat in 2020 than the 1981-2010 average, and 2020 had 1 to 20 zettajoules more ocean heat content than in 2019 (a zettajoule is one sextillion joules — ten to the 21st power). For comparison, in 2010, humans used a total of 0.5 zettajoules of energy.
Administration official apparently leads series of papers casting doubt on climate change - A Trump administration apparently led a group of researchers in writing papers casting doubt on the scientific evidence for climate change. David Legates, an administration official with a history of questioning humans’ influence on global warming, appears to have written an introduction to a series of papers aimed at casting doubt on the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and caused by human activity. Roy Spencer, a climate-change skeptic research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, said on his website that Legates asked him and others to write “brochures that supported the general view that there is no climate crisis or climate emergency.”Spencer, on his website, also said that Legates “hopes to be able to get these posted on the White House website by January 20...but there is no guarantee given recent events.”The papers bear a White House logo and say they are copyrighted by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).The OSTP did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment, but distanced itself from the missives to other news outlets. Office spokesperson Kristina Baum told The Washington Post that “These papers were not created at the direction of The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy nor were they cleared or approved by OSTP leadership.”Two sources told The New York Times that officials with the White House Personnel Office asked Legates to put together research for President Trump for an internal project. The brochures, which were also posted on the website of a group called, the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences, attempt to downplay the significance of climate change or humans’ impacts on it. One paper aims to link climate change to sun cycles (according to NASA, recent warming is too great to be caused by the sun). Another argues that the last 126 years in which climate has been measured is only a “tiny slice of time”
Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker vetoes climate bill that sets carbon emissions targets - Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker vetoed a bill Thursday night that would update the state’s carbon emissions goals, seeking to make the state “net neutral” by 2050. The Republican governor, like Senate President Karen Spilka and House Speaker Ron Mariano, says he’s committed to getting the state’s carbon emissions to fall by 100% of 1990 levels over the next three decades. But he and legislative leaders ultimately disagreed on how to get there. In a letter to lawmakers, Baker said he vetoed the bill in part because it would slow housing production, running contrary to the goals of the “housing choice” proposal within the economic development bill he signed into law Thursday. He also said the bill lacked tools local and state officials need to protect cities and towns against present-day natural disasters that can be traced back to climate change. “While my administration wholeheartedly supports the environmental justice goals of this bill, intent without the tools to address those issues are empty promises,” Baker wrote in a letter to lawmakers. “The bill does not have language or funding to address the ongoing impacts of climate change faced by those communities.” Because the bill passed a day before the two-year legislative session ended, Baker did not have time to send amendments back to lawmakers and strike a compromise. His options were to sign the bill, veto it or let it die unsigned after 10 days in what’s known as a “pocket veto.” On the 10th day, Baker chose to veto the bill. “Had this bill been presented to me with more time while the Legislature was still in session, I would have returned it with amendments to address the concerns set out in this letter,” he wrote. Mariano already said he plans to refile the climate conference report. Sarah Finlaw, the governor’s press secretary, said the governor looks forward to working with the Legislature once the bill is refiled. Sen. Mike Barrett, one of the key negotiators of the bill that passed in early January, said he was perplexed by the governor’s reasoning. He said the bill is written in a way that gives the state flexibility in addressing concerns the energy stretch code may have on housing construction. The Baker administration was consulted on the bill over several months of discussions behind closed doors. State officials never raised concerns about the five-year emissions goals, targets for transportation or building sectors or other issues Baker alluded to, Barrett said.
CLIMATE: Federal regulator nixes bank fossil fuel pledges -- Thursday, January 14, 2021 -- A top federal banking regulator today finalized new standards against pledges by major banks to halt investment in the fossil fuel industry.The rule, scurried through the regulatory process just days before the Biden administration takes office, would require banks to provide "fair access" to financial services to companies regardless of industry.The plan from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency targets major financial institutions — including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America — that have promised not to fund drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge amid pressure from environmental groups."When a large bank decides to cut off access to charities or even embassies serving dangerous parts of the world or companies conducting legal businesses in the United States that support local jobs and the national economy, they need to show their work and the legitimate business reasons for doing so," acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks said in a statement.The final regulation, yet to be published in the Federal Register and scheduled to take effect April 1, has massive implications for banks, but its future is unclear.Brooks announced today that he is stepping down from his post, handing the acting comptroller title to current Chief Operating Officer Blake Paulson.And while the OCC is an independent regulator, President-elect Joe Biden will appoint the next comptroller, and Democrats in Congress could repeal the rule with the Congressional Review Act.Prominent Democrats in both houses have already blasted the rule during the public comment process, arguing that it "runs counter to the overwhelming sentiment among economists and financial experts that financial institutions need to do more to avoid climate-related financial risks, not less" (E&E Daily, Jan. 6)."Short-term, the next comptroller or this Congress will have tools at their disposal to swiftly rescind the rule and make it a moot point," said Gregg Gelzinis, a senior policy analyst at the Center for American Progress."But I think longer-term, and it suggests that a future financial regulator of the same ideology of Brooks and with the same worldview may aggressively misuse financial regulatory tools in the same fashion," he added.
Analysis: Senate shift paves way for straight-talking U.S. climate reforms | Reuters - Democratic Senate seat wins in the state of Georgia have given U.S. President-elect Joe Biden a “green light to move forward” on some key shifts in national climate policy, such as much greener pandemic stimulus spending, U.S. policy analysts said. With Democrats now in control of the Senate, “it’s a huge, huge difference”, Nigel Purvis, CEO of the Washington-based Climate Advisers policy group, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “This almost doubles what he can do - he has a whole additional range of tools and levers at his disposal,” said Purvis, who has worked with three former U.S. administrations on climate policy. Biden has proposed a $2-trillion, climate-smart economic stimulus plan, for instance, which he would not have been able to get through if the Georgia election had turned out differently. “Now he has a real chance,” Purvis added. Biden’s thin Senate majority means he is unlikely to be able to pass a single comprehensive climate change bill, which would require the approval of 60% of senators. But many measures related to raising or spending money - including stimulus funding for things like electric vehicle infrastructure, or incentives for farmers to sequester more carbon - can win approval with a simple majority.
The Senate’s New Point Man on Climate Has Been the Democrats' Most Fossil Fuel-Friendly Senator - As the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, Sen. Joe Manchin will be a key factor in any number of controversial legislative matters, from health care to immigration. But after a presidential campaign that was animated more than any other by concerns about global warming, Manchin could not find himself perched in a more significant—some might say ironic—position. The senator who famously shot a bullet through a copy of Congress’ last major climate bill in a 2010 political advertisement is now well-positioned to determine how much of President-elect Joe Biden’s $2 trillion climate and jobs program becomes law.Manchin has made a career out of defending his state’s coal industry, and he promotes a regional petrochemical buildout. But now, due to Democrats’ success in two Senate runoff races in Georgia on Jan. 5, Manchin is in line to become chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which has great influence in setting national energy policy, and, as a result, climate policy.Manchin is no ideologue. People who have followed his career closely note that he’s moved to where he no longer supports blowing up mountains to mine for coal and accepts mainstream climate science. He likes to make deals, has friends who care about the climate in both parties, and says he wants to bring Democrats and Republicans together around a cleaner energy future.Still, his ascendance could be the latest political reality check for Americans who have for years wanted Congress to adopt major legislation to tackle the climate crisis, but so far have been left waiting.“Usually, discussions of climate change are dominated by people on the East and West coasts of this country,” said Ted Boettner, a West Virginia-based senior researcher with the Ohio River Valley Institute, a think tank with a focus on clean energy and social equity. “But they are going to have to drive through Sen. Manchin to get anything done.”
Frank Pallone and Joe Manchin: Gatekeepers of the Biden energy agenda – With the Georgia runoff elections settled and Democrats poised to take control of both Houses of Congress, a path exists to achieve President-elect Joe Biden’s pledge to work toward 100% clean electricity nationwide by 2035 and invest $2 trillion into the energy transition.The path is not an entirely smooth one, however. Democrats will lack a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Without bipartisan support, legislation still can be slowed or blocked entirely by Republicans.Then there is the nontrivial matter of who chairs two pivotal congressional committees. The two lawmakers who will be key if Biden’s energy goals are to be achieved are the expected chairs of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee: Representative Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV).The committees serve as gatekeepers to passing any meaningful renewable energy policy and both committee chairs are Democrats, like Biden. But legislative success isn’t a simple matter of party alignment.To understand what the future of energy and climate policy will look like, it’s critical to understand these two chairs first as representatives of their states. Joe Manchin is West Virginia’s Democratic senator, serving alongside Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Manchin has been frequently described as the senate’s most conservative Democrat. West Virginia’s historic role as a major coal mining state means that Manchin’s career has often been aligned with the coal industry. For example, he long retained financial ties to a coal brokerage that he helped run before being elected to the Senate; is the fourth-largest recipient of coal mining donations in the U.S. Senate to date, according to Open Secrets; and famously fired a rifle at cap-and-trade bill as part of a campaign commercial. Policy-wise, Manchin has taken an unequivocal stance against ending the current filibuster, opposed the Green New Deal and has been historically in favor of an “all-of-the-above energy policy,” with specific focus on developing technologies aimed at trapping carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning before it enters the atmosphere. In 2019, he said, “While I appreciate the renewed conversation around climate change that the Green New Deal and its supporters have sparked, I think we need to focus on real solutions that recognize the role fossil fuels will continue to play.” Manchin was also the only Democrat on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee who failed to sign on to a letter calling on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) appointee and former professional fossil fuel advocate Bernard McNamee to recuse himself from any rule makings where one resource would be pitted against another. Manchin’s appointment to ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee was described by 350.org as “completely at odds with any plan for real climate action.”
Federal Omnibus Includes Long-Sought Wood Heat Tax Credit For Homeowners | New Hampshire Public Radio - Homeowners who install modern wood heating systems can now get a new tax credit, under the federal omnibus bill passed late last year. New Hampshire’s Congressional delegation supported the measure, which the state’s timber industry has wanted for years. The credit applies to home heating systems such as stoves and boilers that run on cordwood, wood chips or wood pellets, with a federal rating of at least 75% efficiency.These systems can cost thousands - or tens of thousands - of dollars up front, but are cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels over time.With the new credit, homeowners who install one of these systems can take 26% of the installation cost off their tax liability for 2021. The credit steps down to 22% in 2022 and 2023. Charlie Niebling runs a timber consulting firm, Innovative Natural Resource Solutions, in Concord. He has lobbied for the new credit for more than a decade and argues that wood heat is an important alternative to imported fossil fuels, grown and processed here in New Hampshire."Our message to Congress for years has been...don't pick winners and losers,” he said. “[Wood heat] deserves the same recognition in the federal tax code that solar and wind do."Niebling says years of similar tax credits have increased competition and brought down prices for these other renewables, while wood heat remains more expensive and under-utilized.“We’re hopeful that this new credit in 2021 will jumpstart consumer interest once again, during an era of relatively low oil and propane costs." Heating is a main driver of emissions and high energy costs in New Hampshire, where both wood stoves and oil heat are more commonly used than in most other states.Wood creates more emissions than zero-carbon energy sources when burned, including particulates that can have harmful health effects. Winter use of wood stoves sometimes prompts air quality alerts in certain parts of New Hampshire.But wood is also considered renewable, since trees can be replanted – and it burns more cleanly than fossil fuels like heating oil, especially in the efficient systems that this tax credit covers. New Hampshire currently offers a state-level rebate of 40% or up to $10,000 for wood boiler installations of at least 80% efficiency. Niebling said the new federal credit could help more low-income and rural homeowners upgrade from less healthy, older wood stoves and pricier oil heat, especially where natural gas or all-electric heat alternatives aren’t readily available.
CLIMATE: Democrats look to pass environmental justice package -- Thursday, January 14, 2021 -- Climate change and environmental justice will be early priorities for the new Biden administration and Democratic Congress, House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chairwoman Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) said yesterday.
CLIMATE: Trump EPA aims to tie Biden's hands with rulemaking surprise -- Tuesday, January 12, 2021 -- EPA has finalized a rule that leaves untouched an Obama-era requirement that new coal plants partially capture their carbon dioxide emissions — walking away from its proposal more than two years ago to scrap that mandate in favor of laxer standards.Instead, the rule, which was posted on the Federal Register website this morning and will be published officially tomorrow, seeks to erect fresh barriers to a future administration's promulgating rules for sectors like oil refineries or steel manufacturing under a key section of the Clean Air Act.EPA's gambit, played eight days before the start of the Biden administration, classifies any industrial sector as not a significant contributor of a greenhouse gas pollutant unless it is responsible for fully 3% of total U.S. emissions."This means that if a source category collectively emits 3% or less of the total U.S. GHG emissions, it will be considered to be insignificant," asserts EPA in the rule. It goes on to propose a process for the agency to determine whether even sectors that emit more than 3% of U.S. emissions are significant contributors.E&E News first reported on the rulemaking change last week (E&E News PM, Jan. 8).EPA acknowledges that fossil fuel-based power plants meet the 3% threshold, as they are responsible for more than 25% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. It pushes off a decision about the fate of the 2015 new power plant rule requiring new coal units to employ partial carbon capture and storage to "a separate future action" — though a Biden EPA is unlikely to kill the Obama-era rule.But other sectors that the Obama administration either regulated for their effect on climate change or proposed for future regulations in successive annual Unified Agendas — a menu that included oil and gas production, refineries and industrial boilers — are dismissed preemptively in EPA's new action because they are each individually responsible for less than 3% of U.S. emissions.Motor vehicles are regulated under a different Clean Air Act section and thus are not addressed in this rulemaking.
Youth Climate Movement Demands Immediate Action After 'Empty Promises,' Announces Next Global Strike - Fridays for Future, the youth-led global group inspired by Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg, announced Wednesday that its next international day of climate strikes will occur on March 19 of this year with a demand for "immediate, concrete, and ambitious action" directed at world leaders who have in recent years talked seriously about the urgent need to address the planetary emergency but stalled dangerously by failing to make those words a reality. "No more empty promises," said the group in its announcement for global strikes that will take place on every continent, led by students and their allies who believe that the rapidly heating world is an existential threat to life as humanity has come to know it and the insufficient and voluntary emission reduction targets like the ones at the center of the Paris agreement — which nations are not even on track to meet — are worthless unless here-and-now policies are put into action immediately to bring carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution under control. "If we don't act now, we won't even have the chance to deliver on those 2030, 2050 targets that world leaders keep on talking about," said Mitzi Jonelle Tan from the Philippines, one of the group's organizers. "What we need now are not empty promises, but annual binding carbon targets and immediate cuts in emissions in all sectors of our economy." As part of the organizing effort, the group has posted a worldwide map of planned actions and a sign-up formfor those wishing to register or create an event. As part of the organizing effort, the group has posted a worldwide map of planned actions and a sign-up formfor those wishing to register or create an event. According to the group's announcement for the strike: Those in power continue to only deliver vague and empty promises for far off dates that are much too late. What we need are not meaningless goals for 2050 or net-zero targets full of loopholes, but concrete and immediate action in-line with science. Our carbon budget is running out. The climate crisis is already here and will only get worse, so if we are to avoid the worst case scenarios, annual, short-term climate binding targets that factor in justice and equity have to be prioritized by the people in charge. "When your house is on fire," said Thunberg on Wednesday, "you don't wait for 10, 20 years before you call the fire department; you act as soon and as much as you possibly can."
The Energy 202: Nonviolent climate activists reconsider protest tactics in Capitol after mob attack - The Washington Post - Nonviolent protests have always been a staple of climate activism on Capitol Hill. Now the attack on Congress by a pro-Trump mob is forcing environmental activists to reconsider what tactics they will continue to use. The days of hounding lawmakers by disrupting their committee hearings and staging peaceful sit-ins at theirs offices are on pause, at least for the moment, as security tightens in Washington after Trump supporters violently assaulted the Capitol Building on the day Congress was set to certify President-elect Joe Biden's election win. “That's a good question. We're definitely reflecting right now on what that looks like,” Garrett Blad, a spokesman for the Sunrise Movement. The youth-led climate advocacy organization made a name for itself by peacefully occupying the offices of Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) in 2018 after the midterm election, demanding an ambitious climate agenda from the new Democratic majority in the House. The riot a week ago is darkening what is otherwise a bright time for environmentalists. The prospects of more ambitious climate legislation have gone up after Democrats secured a razor-thin majority in the Senate with the Georgia runoff election on Jan. 5.Climate activists, though, say they are not deterred. They note the need to stop global warming is as urgent as ever, insisting they still will find a way of making their voices heard. “We're planning to still push our elected officials,” Blad added. “Sometimes, if that looks like going to their offices, that's what we are still prepared to do. I do not have a clear answer on what we're prepared to do in D.C. specifically, but elsewhere, we are moving forward with mobilizations to get this agenda passed.” Members of Friends of the Earth Action, another environmental lobbying group, have made a habit over the past four years of interrupting congressional testimony from President Trump's two Environmental Protection Agency chiefs, Scott Pruitt and Andrew Wheeler, by chanting and holding up signs. Those actions often resulted in Capitol Police escorting them out of hearing rooms and, in some cases, being arrested. But Drew Hudson, a senior national organizer for the group, said they are careful not to push things too far. “When we do these kind of things, we think carefully through, what are the things that are safe and that are legal? What are the things that may break a rule … but that will still make our point? And then we want to make sure that when we're doing that, it's not in a threatening way." What they and other activists will be able to do in the future will depend on how tight security at the Capitol remains after inauguration. “We hope that it won't change much about our ability to interact with Congress,” Hudson said.
'The numbers don't lie': The green movement remains overwhelmingly white, report finds --A report released Wednesday by Green 2.0, an independent advocacy campaign that tracks racial and gender diversity within the environmental movement, found that while strides have been made in recent years, it has been at an incremental pace that begs for "improvement at all levels," said Andrés Jimenez, the campaign's executive director.New data from about 40 of the largest nonprofit environmental organizations in the country and the top 40 foundations and grant providers show that, on average, these groups added six people of color and eight women to their full-time staff from 2017 to 2020, added two people of color and two women to their senior staff in that time, and one person of color and one woman to their boards since 2017. Diversity advocates acknowledge that such large legacy groups, which have staffing numbers in the hundreds and budgets worth millions of dollars, may be in the best position to bring attention to issues such as protecting national parks and endangered species. But those groups have not historically been in tune with problems facing inner cities and communities of color, places that are disproportionately burdened by pollution, according to the federal government's research. The latest numbers demonstrate a noticeable shift, but still highlight that the organizations and foundations remain overwhelmingly white — even as many of those groups released statements last year calling for racial justice and recognizing how despite their progressive ideals, they failed to react to systemic disparities that people of color have been subjected to in the United States. Some organizations reported having no people of color in senior levels, including Oceana, an ocean conservation nonprofit, and the BlueGreen Alliance, which works with labor unions to promote clean jobs and infrastructure. Oceana's international board does include people of color, but the group said it did not report the board's specific racial makeup to the Green 2.0 report because not all of the members are American.
Apple, Hyundai set to agree electric car tie-up, says Korea IT News (Reuters) - Hyundai Motor and Apple Inc plan to sign a partnership deal on autonomous electric cars by March and start production around 2024 in the United States, local newspaper Korea IT News reported on Sunday. The report follows a statement on Friday from Hyundai Motor that it was in early talks with Apple after another local media outlet said the companies aimed to launch a self-driving electric car in 2027, sending Hyundai shares up nearly 20%. Hyundai Motor declined to comment on the report on Sunday, and reiterated Friday’s comments that it has received requests for potential cooperation from various companies on developing autonomous EVs. Apple had no immediate comment. An updated version of the IT news report removed details, including production location and capacity and the timeframe for signing the agreement and launching the pilot vehicles. The previous version said the companies planned to build the cars at Kia Motors’ factory in Georgia, or invest jointly in a new factory in the United States to produce 100,000 vehicles around 2024. The full annual capacity of the proposed plant would be 400,000 vehicles.
Renewables account for most new U.S. electricity generating capacity in 2021 - Today in Energy - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electricity generators, developers and power plant owners plan for 39.7 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity to start commercial operation in 2021. Solar will account for the largest share of new capacity at 39%, followed by wind at 31%. About 3% of the new capacity will come from the new nuclear reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia.
- Solar photovoltaics. Developers and plant owners expect the addition of utility-scale solar capacity to set a new record by adding 15.4 GW of capacity to the grid in 2021. This new capacity will surpass last year’s nearly 12 GW increase, based on reported additions through October (6.0 GW) and scheduled additions for the last two months of 2020 (5.7 GW). More than half of the new utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is planned for four states: Texas (28%), Nevada (9%), California (9%), and North Carolina (7%). EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts an additional 4.1 GW of small-scale solar PV capacity to enter service by the end of 2021.
- Wind. Another 12.2 GW of wind capacity is scheduled to come online in 2021. Last year, 21 GW of wind came online, based on reported additions through October (6.0 GW) and planned additions in November and December (14.9 GW). Texas and Oklahoma account for more than half of the 2021 wind capacity additions. The largest wind project coming online in 2021 will be the 999-megawatt (MW) Traverse wind farm in Oklahoma. The 12-MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) pilot project, located 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach, is also scheduled to start commercial operation in early 2021.
- Natural gas. For 2021, planned natural gas capacity additions are reported at 6.6 GW. Combined-cycle generators account for 3.9 GW, and combustion-turbine generators account for 2.6 GW. More than 70% of these planned additions are in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
- Battery storage. EIA expects the capacity of utility-scale battery storage to more than quadruple; 4.3 GW of battery power capacity additions are slated to come online by the end of 2021. The rapid growth of renewables, such as wind and solar, is a major driver in the expansion of battery capacity because battery storage systems are increasingly paired with renewables. The world's largest solar-powered battery (409 MW) is under construction at Manatee Solar Energy Center in Florida; the battery is scheduled to be operational by late 2021.
The utility-scale values in this article refer to net summer capacity reported to EIA by developers and power plant owners—respondents to EIA’s annual and monthly electric generator surveys. In the annual survey, EIA asks respondents to provide planned online dates for generators coming online in the next five years. The monthly survey tracks the status of generators coming online in the coming year based on reported in-service dates.
Plans for Berkeley County solar facility keeps WV's solar energy momentum going -Another solar power boost is slated for West Virginia, a year after state lawmakers passed legislation to encourage solar energy development. Berkeley County Council announced Thursday that a renewable energy development company plans to install a $100 million solar electricity production facility at the former Dupont Potomac River Works explosives manufacturing facility. It will be one of the Mountain State’s first utility-scale solar projects, along with a solar farm planned for Raleigh County. Bedington Energy Facility, LLC, a Delaware subsidiary of Colorado-based Torch Clean Energy, plans to invest $100 million to build a 100-megawatt solar facility on 750 acres of land at a site that was designated to be a brownfield “unsuitable for most commercial and industrial uses,” according to a Payment in Lieu of Taxes agreement between Berkeley County Council and Bedington Energy Facility. The PILOT agreement exempts the company from personal property tax payment for a 15-year period, after which the company will assume ownership of machinery equipment on the site from the Berkeley County Development Authority. In lieu of taxes, the company is to pay $1,850 per megawatt of production capacity, with an annual minimum payment of $100,000. The company offered to pay $450,000 to Berkeley County for “quality of life” purposes, including parks and public spaces, public safety and health assets, and cultural and historical initiatives. At no cost to the Berkeley County Board of Education, the company also agreed to install at least one solar photovoltaic array at one or more public schools totaling a minimum of 100 kilowatts within two years of operating the facility. A Torch Clean Energy project manager told Berkeley County Council at its meeting Thursday that annual school district energy cost savings would total $15,000 to $20,000. Bedington Energy Facility is still required to pay property taxes. The company estimated that the project will generate more than $20 million in taxes and create a renewable energy infrastructure capable of attracting major technology companies. The project is estimated to create 150 to 200 construction jobs during construction, according to the county.
New cash crop: Industrial-solar-farm boom hits Hoosier backlash - Across Indiana’s rural landscape, a new cash crop is emerging: solar energy. Thousands of acres of farmland are being developed or eyed for massive solar farms that would install hundreds of thousands of solar panels as far as the eye can see. And not everyone is pleased. One of the nation’s largest solar complexes is planned for Pulaski County in northern Indiana. The $1 billion development would encompass 4,500 acres and generate enough electricity to power 80,000 homes, more power than all the existing solar systems in the state combined. In all, at least 15 Indiana solar farms of 1,000 acres or more are slated to go online by 2024, with several more encompassing hundreds of acres also in the works. But amid the tranquil fields of corn and soybeans, ferocious battles are raging over some of the enormous projects. Neighbor is often pitted against neighbor, which sometimes results in lawsuits and conflict-of-interest allegations against local government officials. It’s a clash over whether rural solar farms are a way to help save the environment and boost the rural economy or an unnecessary money grab that threaten prime farmland and food production with an unsightly array of solar clutter. A powerful combination of factors is coming together to push industrial-size solar development to the fore: At least four Indiana electric utilities have announced plans to close coal-fired plants soon and are looking for renewable-energy sources to replace that capacity. Indianapolis Power & Light Co. is among them, with plans to retire two of its four coal-burning units in Petersburg by 2023. Several large companies are demanding more solar energy as they pledge to become carbon-neutral in the next 20 to 30 years to show their commitment to battling the climate crisis. Amazon, with its six warehouses across Indiana, has committed to going carbon-neutral by 2040. Some solar companies were scrambling to take advantage of federal tax credits that were scheduled to be phased down next year. However, the COVID relief package passed by Congress this week extends the 26% tax deduction for solar installation construction costs for two more years before the phase-out begins. Solar companies pay anywhere from $800 to $1,100 per acre per year to lease farmland in Indiana. That compares with the $200 an acre many landowners receive to rent their land to farmers.Still, opposition is rising among some farmers and landowners as they fight to protect prime farmland for crop production and worry about solar farms’ long-term effects on home values, topsoil, drainage and water quality throughout a solar array’s 35-year lifespan.
In the Maine woods, preparations signal imminent start of CMP power line project - Obscured by a swirling snow squall, an amphibious off-road transporter with 5-foot-high tires maneuvered Friday along the Maine ITS 89 snowmobile trail at the base of Coburn Mountain. At a junction, two workers from Northern Clearing, a Wisconsin-based right-of-way contractor, stepped into the wind and 11-degree cold and secured a sign and pink flagging tape to a small tree. The sign was one of hundreds being erected in remote stretches of northwestern Maine between the Canadian border and The Forks. They will guide crews – likely starting next week – to where they will begin clearing sections of a 53-mile-long corridor through the forest for Central Maine Power’s $1 billion hydroelectric power corridor project, called New England Clean Energy Connect. After three years of dispute and debate, and despite ongoing court challenges and a pending voter referendum, work is finally set to begin to create a 54-foot-wide path for hydroelectricity from Quebec that ultimately will be earmarked for customers in Massachusetts. For residents and businesses along Route 201 from Jackman to Bingham, there has been an increasing awareness that construction was imminent. Pete Dostie owns the Hawks Nest Lodge, an outdoor adventure business perched next to the highway and Kennebec River in West Forks. Dostie said he spoke last week with workers and a foreman for the cutting operation. The workers said they were told that snow plowing of access roads for corridor clearing would begin Tuesday, from Route 201 to Coburn Mountain. Dostie conveyed that information Friday in a sworn statement filed in Somerset and Kennebec Superior Court. His affidavit is meant to supplement a motion by project opponents aimed at delaying a permit granted last May by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection. A lawyer for the opponents wrote that Dostie’s statement shows “the imminence of construction and immediate and irreparable harm are now alarmingly real – next week Tuesday come the bulldozers, and the trees will be gone.”
Cross-Sound power cable out of order since summer - The Cross-Sound Cable, a 24-mile undersea power line from Long Island to Connecticut, has been out of commission since July, utility and cable officials acknowledged Tuesday. The cable, which was first put into operation in 2003 after a major regional blackout, could be back in service by Friday, according to an official of the Cross-Sound Cable Company. The cable runs from Shoreham near the site of the mothballed nuclear power plant, to New Haven, Connecticut. Equipment problems on the Connecticut side of the cable were said to be the problem. PSEG Long Island, which operates the Long Island electric grid under a contract to LIPA, declined to answer questions about the outage. "You'd have to talk to the [Cross-Sound Cable] as it is their cable," PSEG spokeswoman Ashley Chauvin said. A person who answered Cross-Sound Cable Co.’s phone confirmed the line has been out of service since July due to "equipment failure." He said repairs were "finishing up this week" and the "latest plan is to try to energize again on Friday." The New York Independent System Operator, which oversees state energy markets, confirmed the line has been out, due to an "external force," with published data showing the line has had zero output since Nov. 8. LIPA in a statement confirmed the cable has had "intermittent service since the summer." But LIPA said that because of the line’s relatively small size and relatively higher winter prices from the New England power market to which it connects, the Cross-Sound Cable outage "does not have a significant impact on power pricing or usage of on-Island plants." LIPA has access to around 5,800 megawatts of power. Long Island’s winter load use today is expected to reach 2,684 megawatts at the peak around 4 p.m.
TVA plans outage to repair substation authorities say was vandalized last week in Clinton, Kentucky — Gibson Electric says the Tennessee Valley Authority has planned a power outage for Wednesday night that will affect customers served by the Clinton, Kentucky, substation. A TVA crew will be making repairs after someone damaged that substation Thursday night, causing a lengthy power outage that affected people in and around Clinton, Fulton, Berkley, Oakton, Arlington, Fulgham and near the U.S. 51 corridor from Fulton to Arlington. The Hickman County Sheriff's Office announced Tuesday that the outage was caused by someone who shot holes in equipment at the substation. The sheriff's office said it is assisting TVA police in an investigation into the incident. While the sheriff's office said they believe the damage was caused intentionally, both it and Gibson Electric are characterizing the incident as an act of vandalism.The spokeswoman says TVA personnel made temporary repairs after last week's outage, but additional repairs have to be made to avoid equipment failure and the potential of a much larger outage. "While we would prefer for the outage to be scheduled in milder temperatures, the repairs cannot wait," she says in an email to Local 6.
Data centers are energy hogs. Could they help power the grid? -Data centers — cavernous warehouses filled with computers and cables that keep websites and apps running around the clock — are the beating heart of the internet. They are also huge consumers of energy, and as the world spends more time online, environmentalists are growing increasingly concerned about their climate impact. But Google is now trying to rehabilitate the data center’s image, by turning one of its giant server farms into a big battery. Last month, Google announced that it would be installing batteries to replace some of the diesel generators that provide backup power at its data center in Saint-Ghislain, Belgium — a first for the company. The move is more than a routine upgrade from old, dirty equipment to new, cleaner technology. When Google isn’t using the batteries, it plans to supply some of their energy to the local electric grid. If the experiment is successful, data centers equipped with batteries that store renewably generated power could one day become “critical components in carbon-free energy systems,” Joe Kava, vice president of global data centers at Google, wrote in a blog post. Data centers account for about 1 percent of global electricity usage, a figure that could rise as data-intensive activities like video streaming and cloud gaming become more popular and as more people around the world gain access to the internet. When data centers are powered with fossil fuel energy like coal and natural gas, these facilities can have a serious climate impact. As environmental groups started calling out Big Tech for all of this unseen pollution, image-conscious companies like Google and Microsoft began making an effort to clean up their data centers’ power supplies.
FPL shuts down its last coal-fired plant in Florida and converting another to natural gas --Florida Power & Light’s last coal-fired plant in that state has officially closed. The formal retirement of Indiantown Cogeneration Plant (pictured) came as the clock struck midnight on Dec. 31. FPL acquired the plant three years earlier for the sole purpose of shutting it down. FPL is owned by NextEra Energy Inc. Another NextEra utility, Gulf Power, also ceased coal-fired generation at its Plant Crist in Excambia County. NextEra acquired Gulf Power from Southern Co. for about $5.7 billion. Plant Crist is going to be converted from coal-fired to natural gas-fired generation, cutting carbon emissions by about 40 percent. “By making smart, consistent, long-term investments in cleaner, state-of-the art energy centers, we have lowered our oil use by 99 percent and use it only as a secondary fuel source. By eliminating our use of coal and effectively eliminating our use of oil, our customers now receive energy that is better for our environment, and is reliable and much more affordable.” In recent years, FPL has bought out old contracts and purchased existing coal-fired power plants for the sole purpose of shutting them down – saving customers money and eliminating carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, the company has constructed universal solar energy centers, leading one of the largest solar expansions in the country as part of its bold plan to install 30 million solar panels by 2030. Last month, five new solar energy centers, consisting of 1.4 million solar panels, began providing customers with zero-emissions energy.
Minnesota Power shutting, converting final two coal plants by 2035 - – Minnesota Power will shutter and convert its last two coal-power plants by 2035 as it moves toward a promised 100% carbon-free energy mix by 2050. The Duluth-based utility, which serves a broad swath of northeastern and central Minnesota, announced the timeline Tuesday ahead of the company filing a detailed 15-year plan with state regulators in February. "We're no longer just dreaming of a carbon-free future," said Bethany Owen, CEO of parent company Allete Inc. "We believe Minnesota Power is ready to reach this goal." By the end of the decade Minnesota Power intends to shut down the Boswell Energy Center Unit 3, a 335-megawatt coal-fired plant in Cohasset. The utility plans to add 400 megawatts of solar and wind energy by 2030 to replace it. The company also said it will be working with the community and the workers affected by the plant shutdown. Minnesota Power is one of the largest employers in Itasca County — Boswell employs 165 — and a major taxpayer. "We're really focused on ensuring that transition is thoughtfully done," Owen said. Since the company first signaled it would move away from coal, community leaders have been working to attract new jobs and industries to the region. How well those efforts perform could have a major impact on the area's economy. By 2035, Minnesota Power intends to transition the 468-megawatt Boswell Unit 4 off coal, which could mean a switch to natural gas, biomass or other sources as advances in technology allow. With closures planned for all of the state's other coal plants by 2030, Unit 4 will likely be the last coal-power plant in Minnesota by the time it is converted.
Twenty people from 2019 Bow power plant protest to face sentencing Thursday - Twenty members of a climate group that wants to shut down the power plant in Bow will be in court Thursday for sentencing, 16 months after their arrest, but plan to ask for a jury trial. The protesters were arrested September 28, 2019, as part of a campaign by a group called No Coal No Gas that is targeting the Merrimack Generation Station in Bow, the only major coal-fired power plant in New England that has not scheduled a date to shut down. The group, who are all charged with misdemeanor trespass, are scheduled to appear online before Concord District Court Judge Edwin Kelly on Thursday, between 12:45 and 5 p.m. The group of defendants plan to “declare their intention to exercise their right to a trial by a jury of their peers,” they said. They argue that court rules give them the right to a Superior Court trial, with the District Court sentence vacated pending appeal. “In addition to submitting a written statement, each defendant will have five minutes to offer a personal allocution to the judge,” the group noted. A total of 67 people were arrested at the protest around the front gate of the Bow facility. The others have accepted plea agreements in which they accepted a finding of guilty to trespass but the court cases will be removed from the record next month, according to Jay O’Hara with the Climate Disobedience Center. Two other cases, one in New Hampshire and one in Massachusetts, are proceeding that involve protests by No Coal No Gas, both for allegedly attempting to block shipments of coal by train to the power plant. These protests are part of a wider climate action by the group since coal-fired plants are the biggest contributors to greenhouses gases among electricity-producing plants. Coal once fueled the majority of New England’s electricity but has almost disappeared. Merrimack Station, at 480 megawatts, and Bridgeport Harbor in Connecticut, at 400 megawatts, are the the only major plants left and Bridgeport Harbor is slated to shut this year, to be replaced by a plant that burns natural gas. A megawatt can power between 700 and 1,000 homes.
Drainage of coal ash plant in Dougherty County set to start in February — Georgia Power Co. officials gave an update on Thursday on the draining of coal ash ponds and release of treated water into the Flint River in Dougherty County. The state’s largest utility company will begin the process at the site in Dougherty County at the decommissioned Plant Mitchell in February. The plant was in operation from 1948-2016, with coal- and gas-powered generators at the site. The company will remove some two million tons of coal ash from the site that will be recycled through the production of Portland cement and other construction products. “When we announced the closing of all of our ash ponds in 2015, the years have been dedicated to planning how we could do that safely,” Scott Hendricks, the company’s water and natural resources permitting manager, said during a Thursday online meeting. The virtual tour of the site was held remotely due to the current spike in novel coronavirus cases and was attended by media and elected officials, including Dougherty County Commissioner Anthony Jones and state Rep. Joe Campbell, R-Camilla. The three ponds in Dougherty County eventually will be filled in and the site planted with grass. During the drainage/dewatering process, three third-party contractors will provide engineering and monitoring services to ensure the water is safe to be returned to the river, Hendricks said. Solids will be separated for recycling during the process. During the drainage process, water will go through a filtering system to remove contaminants and toxic substances to the permitted levels, the company said. Monitoring during the process will detect any water that has not been treated properly, and the system has a shut-down mechanism to prevent transfer into the river. An alarm will notify operators, and any suspect water will be returned to the ponds for additional treatment. Water quality both upstream and downstream of the plant will be monitored by third-party vendors. In all, Georgia Power will remove water from 29 coal ash ponds across the state. Each location required a site-specific plan for cleanup.
Will Blackjewel leave Kentuckians to clean up its coal mines? -There is a community in Eastern Kentucky where a road routinely floods, where water from wells smells foul and stains clothes, thick mud often coats yards and there are cracks in the foundations of several homes. Residents in Harlan County say the damage is linked to mining by a company called Blackjewel, which blasted open the earth to uncover coal and then allegedly didn’t properly reclaim the sites. Now, Blackjewel’s parent company, Revelation Energy, is in the final stages of a case in bankruptcy court, looking to terminate the permits on its more than 500 surface mines.That raises a concern that the state could get stuck cleaning up the damage from the mines Blackjewel once controlled in Harlan County and elsewhere. The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet and several citizen groups have complained during the bankruptcy that Revelation already has fallen short on required reclamation at mines. The cabinet raised the issue of flooding on Camp Creek Road at Wallins Creek in September. Judge Benjamin A. Kahn ordered Revelation to fix the problem, but it still hasn’t, according to Harlan County Judge-Executive Dan Mosley. Mosley said the county had to install a bridge after heavy rain washed trees and silt from a Blackjewel mine into drainage tiles and blocked them.The resulting flooding eroded the road and washed out a waterline. Flooding also has pushed in the underpinning under mobile homes along the creek. The county spent $30,000 to $40,000 to clean up mud and debris, install drainage tiles and fix the water line, Mosley said. ReThe road isn’t the only spot at Wallins Creek where effects of Blackjewel’s mining linger long after the company laid off all its employees and stopped mining in mid-2019. Elvis Sowders spends weekends repairing cracks in his house at Wallins Creek, damage he believes was caused by blasting at a nearby mine once operated by Blackjewel. Sowders told state regulators there were cracks in the foundation and drywall of the house where he lives, and that the floor was not level. At his sister-in-law’s house on the hill above Sowder’s, there were cracks in the foundation and damage to the chimney, according to accounts from Sowder and family members. Sowders said he has spent about $40,000 on repairs to the two homes.
Appalachian coal mine reclamation bonding issues highlighted in new report - What will become of abandoned coal mines throughout Appalachia as more and more coal companies go bankrupt?A report released by a coalition of groups in Central Appalachia Thursday suggests answers to that question that could benefit the region while acknowledging how steep the challenge will be.The report, developed by the Reclaiming Appalachia Coalition, a regional collaboration aiming to redevelop communities across the region through mine reclamation projects, highlights the daunting reclamation bonding issues that West Virginia and other states face.Enacted in 1977, the federal Surface Coal Mining and Reclamation Act allows states to regulate their own surface coal mining and reclamation operations while the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement maintains some oversight to keep state programs in compliance with the law, which requires coal mining permit applicants to post a reclamation bond to ensure that regulatory authorities have enough funding to reclaim the site.But actual reclamation costs may exceed bond amounts, and Thursday’s report says the cost of reclaiming at least 490,000 acres of mined land in West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee may amount to $6 billion, far more than the $2.5 billion the report says those states have in available bonds based on a review of state and federal data.A recent trend in bankruptcies among coal companies raises the concerning possibility that much of that land will remain unreclaimed if companies forfeit their bonds.“We have not yet seen a large company abandon many mines, but we are likely about to. Many state bonding programs were not designed to withstand widespread forfeiture resulting from multiple bankruptcies or even the bankruptcy of a single large company,” states the report. More than 50 coal companies have gone bankrupt over the past decade.
Bankrupt coal firm fails to find buyer for West Coast export terminal - Wyoming’s long-held dream of exporting Powder River Basin coal from a West Coast terminal was recently dashed when the project’s owner filed for bankruptcy and failed to find an interested buyer. Lighthouse Resources Inc. petitioned for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Dec. 3. The company owns the Decker coal mine in Montana, just north of Wyoming’s border, and over 75 employees lost their jobs last month. Roughly a decade ago, Lighthouse Resources hatched an ambitious plan to construct the West Coast coal export terminal. The port on the Columbia River in Longview, Washington, would be able to receive about 16 trainloads of high-grade Powder River Basin coal on a daily basis, destined for markets in Asia, the company promised. So, when Lighthouse Resources filed for bankruptcy late last year, it intended to find a new buyer for the project, according to court documents. But over the past two months no bidder materialized. Therefore, Lighthouse Resources petitioned the court on Friday to reject its land lease. A company called Northwest Alloys has been leasing the property to Lighthouse Resources. The coal operator also wants out of its contract with the property owner. Lighthouse Resources declined to comment. But in court documents, attorneys for the bankrupt company said keeping up with the facility’s costs — where it owns “buildings, improvements, equipment, rolling stock, and vehicles” — was no longer feasible. “The high carrying cost and exigencies associated with the Millennium Facility necessitated moving forward with the sale of the Millennium Facility with speed,” attorneys explained. “Without a stalking horse bid for the Millennium Facility identified ... the Debtors (Lighthouse Resources) could no longer justify the continued cash outlay to the estates related to operations at the Millennium Facility.” Northwest Alloys appears not to be interested in the rights to the coal terminal project either. If the judge accepts Friday’s motion filed by Lighthouse Resources, several contracts related to the operation of the coal port would be rendered moot.
Amid production woes, US coal deaths at historic low in 2020 (AP) — Five miners died in U.S. coal mines in 2020, an all-time low mark for an industry in a year that saw continuing declines in production as electric providers move away from burning coal. The federal Mine Safety and Health Administration, which tracks the deaths, said Wednesday there were 29 total deaths in all the nation’s mines, a sixth-straight year that total mine fatalities were kept below 30. The previous low in yearly coal deaths was eight in 2016, and there were 12 last year. Workplace deaths in coal mines have remained low since 2014, the first year annual deaths were less than 20. Since then, the totals have exceeded 12 only twice. A century ago in 1920, the nation had more than 2,200 coal deaths, before machines replaced manpower underground. Kentucky and West Virginia each had two coal mining deaths in 2020, and there was one in Pennsylvania. The death of a coal miner on the job in Pennsylvania in February was attributed to natural causes and did not count as a mining-related accident. Coal production has declined steadily over the last decade, as dozens of coal-fired power plants have shuttered. There are no new coal power plants being built in the U.S.
Deep freeze draws coal back into global power mix - Key northern hemisphere energy consumers have ramped up their coal consumption in recent weeks amid freezing weather and an LNG supply crunch. Electricity demand in China, Japan and South Korea has all soared and northeast Asian coal-fired power generation in December-January is likely to hit a multi-year high as governments turn to the solid fuel to keep the lights on amid the cold spell. European thermal coal usage also looks likely to be higher on the year as less competitive gas prices and below-average temperatures more than offset the impact of fresh Covid-19 related lockdowns. The demand rise is primarily weather-driven. Beijing on 7 January recorded its lowest temperature since 1966, while the temperature was on average 5.9°C below the 10-year seasonal norm between 1-11 January, according to meteorologist Speedwell Weather. South Korea and Japan have also been hit by colder-than-usual conditions and heavy snowfall, and the temperature in Seoul and Tokyo was a respective 5.9°C and 1.7°C below average on 1-11 January. But the situation has been exacerbated by policy decisions. China's informal ban on Australian coal imports has resulted in a sharp drop-off in coal supply, particularly as domestic mining firms have struggled to sufficiently ramp up production to meet the shortfall. Chinese buyers have turned to alternative origins of supply including South Africa and Colombia, but these volumes are unlikely to arrive in time or in sufficient quantities to meet short-term demand requirements. Colombian producer Drummond loaded 164,210t for China in December — the firm's first cargo for China since July — but the vessel is unlikely to arrive before next month. Fellow producer Cerrejon is also said to have sold cargoes to China, but the producer only resumed exports in December following a three-month strike. In Japan, power prices this week hit record highs above ¥200/kWh. This is perhaps unsurprising given just three of its nine operational nuclear reactors are on line. January nuclear capacity is less than half of January 2020's level, as units are off line for maintenance, counter-terrorism upgrades and owing to legal injunctions. In South Korea, the government may be forced to ease some of the winter restrictions on coal use — a policy intended to curb fine dust emissions — to cope with the demand surge. Nuclear availability is higher on the year, but the scale of the demand crunch was shown by a South Korean buyer paying $25/mn Btu for a first-half February cargo on 7 January. And this week, a deal for a 11-15 February delivery to northeast Asia was done at $39.30/mn Btu. By contrast, Argus' LNG des northeast Asia front-month assessment averaged $4.69/mn Btu in January last year. In Europe, combined coal-fired power generation across Germany, Spain, the UK and France increased by 11pc on the year to 6.1TWh in December. And demand has risen further in early January, albeit from a low base, with Madrid hit by a deluge of snow and amid low regional wind generation.
Polar Vortex: Cold, Calm Arctic Weather Set to Rattle Europe Energy Markets - Europe is girding for an extended blast of freezing conditions with temperatures set to drop below zero in many parts by the end of this week. A sub-zero blast that has already blanketed Madrid in a rare snowfall is set to worsen with a weather phenomenon known as a sudden stratospheric warming. The event can disrupt the polar vortex, the winds that usually keep cold air contained in the far north, and allow freezing weather to head south. It threatens a re-run of “the beast from the east” of two years ago, when a deadly Siberian cold blast lashed Europe, forcing evacuations, stranding trains and snarling traffic. It couldn’t come at a worse time for the region’s heating and power systems, with calm conditions expected to stifle Europe’s wind generation and nuclear plant outages adding to the strain from the cold. Chilly conditions in Europe Jan. 17-22 will push the number of heating degree days for that period 11% above the 10-year average, according to weather forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc. The measure of when temperatures are below a level needed to warm buildings is expected to climb to 92 days next week, compared to a 10-year seasonal average of 82.7. The cold arctic air flow into Europe in January has led to a surge in power demand and has lowered gas storage levels sending prices to the highest for two years. “It is uncertain how long the cold spell will last and it depends on a number of factors, but at the very least it will last for a week and at the most it could last into the start of February,” Swedish forecaster Klart said on its website. When margins tighten and renewable output is low, it means more expensive thermal plants will be needed to boost supply. This pushes up prices on the day-ahead and intraday power markets. It also exposes the markets to risk of price spikes when units are unexpectedly turned off, forcing system operators to activate reserve power plants or ask industry to cut consumption to keep the grid stable. German day-ahead power prices hit the highest level in two years on Friday with temperatures in Berlin dropping close to freezing. The coming cold snap could boost prices further with temperatures expected to dip as low as -6.9 degrees Celsius by Sunday in the German capital and to a minumum of -15 degrees Celsius in Helsinki on Friday.
China's ban on Australian coal forces trade flows to realign: Russell (Reuters) - China’s effective ban on imports of Australian coal is forcing a realignment of flows between the world’s two biggest importers and two largest exporters. Indonesia and Australia dominate the global seaborne coal trade, with the Southeast Asian nation tops in thermal coal, used mainly in power plants, while Australia is the biggest shipper of coking coal, used to make steel, and the number two in thermal coal. China is the world’s biggest coal importer, while India ranks second. China’s major coal supplier was Australia, but this ended in the second half of last year after Beijing’s unofficial ban on imports from Australia, believed to be in retaliation for Canberra’s call for an international probe of the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. While Indonesia was China’s second-biggest supplier, it has now seen demand surge as imports from Australia dropped to nearly zero. For India, the situation has reversed, with Indonesia in danger of losing its status as the South Asian nation’s top supplier to Australia, a country that in the past has shipped only relatively modest volumes of coking coal to India. The shift in coal flows can be clearly seen in the December data compiled by Refinitiv. China’s imports from Australia were a mere 447,523 tonnes, the lowest since Refinitiv started compiling vessel-tracking and port data in January 2015, and down massively from the 2020 high of 9.64 million tonnes in June. Even those modest volumes from Australia might not be available for end users since the Refinitiv data only measures cargoes that have been discharged, meaning its possible the shipments have yet to clear customs. However, China’s imports from Indonesia soared to 12.19 million tonnes in December, easily eclipsing the prior record of 10.47 million in April 2019, and up almost threefold from the 4.3 million recorded in November. India’s imports from Australia were 6.24 million tonnes in December, up from 5.06 million in November and 5.48 million in October, with all three recent months beating the prior record high of 4.81 million from December 2019. India’s imports from Indonesia were 5.65 million tonnes in December, below the volume from Australia, and down from 5.82 million in November and 6.75 million in October. The December figure is also well below the record for India’s imports from Indonesia, 10.58 million tonnes in April 2019. It’s worth noting that the majority of Australia’s coal exports to India are coking coal, but the vessel-tracking data suggest increasing volumes of thermal coal as well, perhaps as a result of Australian miners seeking new markets to replace lost shipments to China.
COVID-19 Is Delaying Project Milestones At Plant Vogtle - Georgia Power is putting off some of this year’s milestones in the construction schedule for the nuclear expansion at Plant Vogtle, citing the COVID-19 pandemic. The Atlanta-based utility expects to adjust the dates for fuel loading at Unit 3, one of two nuclear reactors being added at the plant south of Augusta, and for the start of “hot functional testing,” which measures the safety and operability of the reactors, Georgia Power announced Monday. Georgia Power has made significant changes to work practices at the project since the coronavirus pandemic struck Georgia last March. The company laid off 20% of the project workforce last April, and the site has seen a significant increase in cases of the virus since October consistent with the broader national and regional increase. However, Georgia Power still expects to bring Unit 3 into service this November, followed a year later by Unit 4, the second reactor. The state Public Service Commission approved the project back in 2009 at an estimated cost of $14 billion and a schedule that called for completing the work in 2016 and 2017. However, the project has been plagued by a series of cost overruns and scheduling delays brought on in part by the bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric, the original prime contractor. The project’s critics are predicting that further delays and overruns will occur, based on testimony last fall from engineers monitoring the work.
Glitch shuts down a nuclear plant in Callaway County – A glitch during refueling and maintenance has shut down Ameren Missouri’s nuclear plant in Callaway County. The utility reports the glitch is a non-nuclear operating issue related to the plant’s generator. Ameren Missouri said the plant will stay offline while it investigates the cause and develops a plan to make sure the plant can safely return to normal. They said they don’t expect the shutdown to cause any disruption to customer service.
Illinois hires outside firm to verify Exelon's claim that nuclear plants are losing money - The Pritzker administration has hired an outside firm to scrutinize Exelon’s claims that some of its Illinois nuclear plants are losing money. The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency early this month finalized a $215,000 emergency contract with Cambridge, Mass.-based Synapse Energy Economics. The firm, which has done work in the past for consumer advocates like the Illinois attorney general’s office and the Citizens Utility Board, will report back on the financial condition of the nukes by April 1. It’s tasked with auditing the company’s plants, assessing costs and revenues given now and projecting over the next five years, according to the emergency purchase statement. Among the qualifications the Pritzker administration specified for the role was that the firm chosen could not have done work for Exelon in the past. That disqualified a fair number of bidders. The move comes as Exelon for the second time in four years has said it would shutter nukes in Illinois unless they’re subsidized by the state. In August, the company announced it would close the Dresden and Byron reactors this coming fall without government action. Gov. J.B. Pritzker and lawmakers will have to decide this spring what, if anything, to do to keep those plants open. Exelon’s nukes are responsible for more than half the electricity generated in the state and are valuable due to their carbon-free emissions. In addition, they support thousands of well-paid union jobs and are critical sources of tax revenue in the localities that host them. Pritzker wants passage of comprehensive energy legislation to put Illinois on a course for a carbon-free power industry. Exelon frequently has emphasized that the state's environmental goals will be extraordinarily difficult to realize if nuclear plants are retired before their useful lives are up. “With Exelon’s (closure) announcement . . . the state has concerns that the generation gap will be filled by dirty energy, namely fossil fuels,” according to the purchase statement. “In order to advance the state’s clean energy goals, IEPA and the governor’s office are assessing how and over what period of time to meet clean energy targets, which requires understanding the schedule of statewide plant closures, including Exelon’s plants.”
Cleveland City Council members might subpoena FirstEnergy, citing efforts to undermine CPP - cleveland.com – Cleveland City Council might subpoena leaders of FirstEnergy to testify about so-called dark money that investigators have linked to the utility and that ended up in a campaign against Cleveland Public Power. During a briefing Monday, some council members called for the unusual step of issuing a subpoena because court filings identify FirstEnergy as “Company A” that bankrolled the effort to undermine city-owned CPP. “The player that I want to focus on is Company A,” Councilman Blaine Griffin said. “Company A clearly is trying to influence Cleveland. … We need to, in addition to looking at this dark money, we really need to illuminate Company A.” Council launched an investigation in August to determine whether any parties accused in a statehouse corruption scandal related to legislative bailouts for two nuclear plants and two coal plants also sought to harm CPP. The effort followed indictments handed down by federal investigators that said FirstEnergy and its affiliates funneled $60 million in bribes to Larry Householder, then speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives, and four others in order to pass the $1.3 billion bailouts. Tax filings and federal court documents indicate that FirstEnergy funneled money through a non-profit to Consumers Against Deceptive Fees, a group that billed itself as an advocate for Cleveland utility customers by questioning rates. No one from FirstEnergy is charged with any crimes. In a statement released following the indictments, the company acknowledged it received subpoenas in connection with the investigation and that it intended to fully cooperate. City Council President Kevin Kelley has noted that CPP is a competitor to FirstEnergy in Cleveland and that he wanted to investigate whether the utility had funded lobbying efforts against the city utility. The investigation is needed, he said, to reveal if there was outside interference -- even if there was nothing illegal about it. Among the proposals pitched by Consumers for Excessive Fees were restrictions on what the city could charge customers for electric power the utility bought and a block on Cleveland’s ability to negotiate with commercial customers.
Public deserves to know who is backing dark money campaigns such as one that targeted CPP, advocates say - cleveland.com – Advocates for consumers and for good government told a Cleveland City Council panel Tuesday it was important to fully expose FirstEnergy Corp.’s use of dark money contributions in a campaign against Cleveland Public Power. The public eserves to know who is funding organizations such as Consumers Against Excessive Fees so it knows who is really lobbying them. “We all should be able to follow the money,” Catherine Turcer, executive director of Common Cause Ohio, told council’s Utilities Committee. “You can urge the state legislature to act,” Turcer said. “More importantly, you can update your own campaign finance law to ensure the transparency of the funding of political advertisements surrounding the mayoral and city council races.” Turcer urged the city to consider requiring disclosures on lobbying and campaign materials that list who is distributing the message and the top donors. That would immediately inform residents who is behind the distribution of pamphlets and fliers, such as those Consumers Against Excessive Fees distributed in Cleveland. Similar efforts have been made in New York City and San Francisco, she said. Tax filings and federal court documents indicate that FirstEnergy funneled money through a nonprofit to Consumers Against Deceptive Fees, which billed itself as an advocate for Cleveland utility customers by questioning rates. FirstEnergy competes with city-owned Cleveland Public Power for customers. FirstEnergy has about 60,000 customers in the city. Cleveland Public Power has about 70,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers. Tax records show that the nonprofit Partners for Progress contributed $200,000 to Consumers Against Deceptive Fees in 2019. In tax records, Partners for Progress stated its sole source of funding was FirstEnergy.
FirstEnergy’s fight to undercut Cleveland Public Power exposes a dark-money group with ties to House Bill 6 - cleveland.com -- The latest plan to undercut Cleveland Public Power began in early 2018, when a Cincinnati fixer incorporated a nonprofit that was financed by FirstEnergy Corp. and aided by attorneys and lobbyists, authorities say.The nonprofit, Consumers Against Deceptive Fees, gained speed with the help of a consultant who had worked behind the scenes on several local political campaigns in recent years, including those of Mayor Frank Jackson and members of Cleveland City Council.Those associated with Consumers Against Deceptive Fees claimed a moral goal, to educate East Side residents about CPP’s rates, which the group said were among the highest in the state. City officials said the nonprofit was nothing more than an attempt by FirstEnergy to gut a competitor.The nonprofit has been drawn into the House Bill 6 scandal in recent weeks, as $200,000 of FirstEnergy funds were funneled to the group through an account at the heart of the largest bribery case in state history, records show. City Council’s Finance Committee vowed Monday to find out more about the group’s funding and FirstEnergy’s role in it.How the group formed and the people behind it offer a glimpse into how corporations use nonprofits to shield the movement of political money in Ohio and their widespread influence in the state, something critics fear will be a corrupting factor for years to come.“This was clandestine, and it was dastardly,” said Cleveland City Councilman Michael Polensek. “Who is to say it won’t happen again?”The group, like others touched by the Statehouse bribery scandal, has gone silent. It dissolved in November, and those affiliated with it have declined to discuss it or have not returned multiple phone calls seeking comment.A review of state records, tax filings and campaign finance reports, as well as dozens of interviews, shows a nonprofit called Partners for Progress obtained $20 million from FirstEnergy in 2019.The FBI referred to Partners for Progress as a “pass-through,” which held the company’s funds before they went to then-Speaker of the Ohio House Larry Householder. From that account, $200,000 went to Consumers Against Deceptive Fees, tax records show.However, the group that ostensibly sought to help Cleveland residents consisted mostly of people who lived outside the city. It gained help from those affiliated with the law firm of Roetzel & Andress, which represents FirstEnergy, according to incorporation records and interviews.
Ohio regulators set to officially pause nuclear bailout fees created through tainted energy bill - - State regulators have ordered a pause on the $170 million in annual new fees created through the controversial House Bill 6, following a judge’s recent ruling in a lawsuit brought by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost and officials in Cincinnati and Columbus. The Ohio Air Quality Development Authority will formally suspend the charges, $150 million of which would bail out two financially troubled Ohio nuclear plants owned by a former FirstEnergy subsidiary, during a scheduled meeting on Tuesday, the agency’s executive director wrote in a recent letter to officials with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. As part of the same official process, the PUCO on Dec. 30 acted to prevent the new fee from going into effect while the legal challenge continues. Both agencies cited a Dec. 21 ruling from a Franklin County judge who, ruling on the lawsuit from Yost and two Ohio cities, ordered the fees be blocked from going into effect. The fees, worth more than $1 billion to the nuclear plants, were to have appeared on Ohioans’ power bills starting on Jan. 1.But the pause could remain in place at least until a March 5 hearing in the Franklin County case, according to a PUCO spokesman. Yost and the local officials sued over the law after federal investigators said it was the product of an elaborate corruption scheme financed by FirstEnergy and its affiliates that led to the arrest of former House Speaker Larry Householder and others last July. Prosecutors have said in exchange for $61 million, spent to help Householder become speaker and on a political campaign supporting the law, Householder agreed to push the bill through the legislature. FirstEnergy, based in Akron, hasn’t been charged or officially accused of wrongdoing. Householder has pleaded not guilty to a federal corruption charge, but two associates who helped pass House Bill 6, Jeff Longstreth and Juan Cespedes, have pleaded guilty to participating in the scheme. The fees will remain blocked even though the Ohio Supreme Court on Monday dismissed a different HB6 legal challenge filed by the Ohio Manufacturers Association, a business group. The Supreme Court previously ordered the fees paused while it considered OMA’s arguments. DeWine and state legislative leaders have called for House Bill 6 to be repealed or at least, revisited. But state lawmakers failed to do so during their lame duck session in December, since House members were unable to agree on what specific action to take. The law’s future remains unclear, with legislators expected to reconvene in the coming weeks. Numerous HB6-related state and federal investigations, including from the FBI and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, are ongoing, as are numerous lawsuits.
Former top Ohio utility regulator was involved with writing tainted nuclear bill, emails show - -- While serving as Ohio’s top utilities regulator, former Public Utilities Commission of Ohio Chairman Sam Randazzo worked to amend a controversial nuclear bailout bill to hurt renewable energy projects while helping a former client that had just lost a major court case, recently released emails show. Records released by the Ohio House last month show Randazzo in emails to House staff suggested wording revisions to an early version of House Bill 6, which now is at the center of a federal corruption probe, along with other minor later changes to the bill language.But they also show Randazzo helped develop new language for the bill to make it harder for wind energy projects to get exceptions to “setback” rules requiring a certain amount of distance between windmills and adjoining properties. The language, drafted as an amendment that didn’t make it into the final bill, would have benefitted Randazzo’s former client, a group of Huron County property owners who were fighting state approval for a wind farm. Randazzo had filed the case with the Ohio Supreme Court, and had withdrawn from the case six months before when Gov. Mike DeWine hired him as Ohio’s top utility regulator. Renewable energy advocates, who long have criticized Randazzo, say his involvement with House Bill 6 was inappropriate, given his role approving energy projects and setting utility rates. They’ve also questioned his impartiality in light of FirstEnergy’s disclosure that Akron power company paid $4 million to someone matching Randazzo’s description shortly before DeWine hired him. Randazzo as PUCO chairman subsequently issued rulings that benefitted FirstEnergy, including one in November 2019 that rescinded a requirement that FirstEnergy undergo a comprehensive review of its electricity rates in 2024. The company was a driving force behind House Bill 6, which otherwise bailed out two Ohio nuclear plants owned by a former FirstEnergy subsidiary. Randazzo resigned from his job leading the PUCO in late November, the same week the FBI searched his house in Columbus, and the day after FirstEnergydisclosed the $4 million payment, which prompted the company to fire its then-CEO and two other senior executives. “It is clear from these emails that Sam Randazzo, while employed as the top energy regulator in the state of Ohio, assisted in writing components of House Bill 6, and specifically pieces of that legislation that would impede development of wind energy and damage the renewable portfolio standard,” said Miranda Leppla, vice president of energy policy for the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund. “It is absolutely inappropriate for someone charged with being an independent arbiter of energy policy for the state of Ohio to be involved in drafting legislation that picks winners and losers in the types of generation operating in our state. His job as chair of the PUCO was to implement the law--not create it.”
Gov. Mike DeWine vetoes bill to reopen county fairs, signs anti-protest measure —Gov. Mike DeWine on Monday vetoed legislation seeking to override his administration’s state health order banning most county fair activities because of the coronavirus crisis.The governor signed three other bills, including one designed to toughen penalties for demonstrators who trespass or commit other crimes while protesting at energy pipelines or other “critical infrastructure.” DeWine, a Greene County Republican, wrote in his veto message of Senate Bill 375 that the health order issued last July that bans most county fair activities was a “difficult” but “necessary” decision. […] The governor also signed Senate Bill 33, which increases penalties for trespassing and other crimes at oil refineries, power stations, natural gas pipelines, and other projects in the state.More than a dozen states have passed similar bills since 2018, as environmental and climate demonstrations have centered on energy facilities. The bill is modeled on language drawn up by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council.The bill makes it a third-degree felony to commit criminal mischief, criminal trespass, aggravated trespass, making false alarms, or telecommunications harassment if the crime involved a “critical infrastructure facility.”It creates the new offense of “improper organizational involvement with a critical infrastructure facility,” which bans groups from coordinating or compensating people to commit the crimes listed above. Violators will face a $100,000 fine. SB33 also allows owners of “critical infrastructure facilities” to file civil lawsuits against people who damaged their facility, even if those people have not been criminally charged. Organizations who directed or compensated people to take such action could be held liable as well. Critics, however, argue the measure deters free speech and helps silence civil protests.DeWine also signed Senate Bill 140, which will allow people to carry concealed switchblades, razors and other knives and cutting instruments, so long as they’re not used as weapons. It also repeals Ohio’s ban on manufacture and sale of “switchblade,” “spring blade” and “gravity” knives. Each of the three bills signed by DeWine takes effect in 90 days.
Akron wants to sell mineral rights for the fracking of 475 acres of water shed land - Akron Beacon Journal - Akron Council has given initial approval of a deal to allow horizontal drilling and fracking under 475 acres of public land at the La Due Reservoir, which is upstream from the city’s main drinking water supply along the Cuyahoga River.“We’ve been working on this for probably a year and we’ve been watching the oil prices,” Public Service Director Chris Ludle told Council Monday during a committee meeting.If approved again by all of council on Jan. 25, the deal would add another red triangle to a map almost completely covered by red triangles — each representing an oil or gas well in Geauga County where the reservoir is located.Akron owns and manages about 33% of the Cuyahoga River shoreline through Portage and Geauga counties. The city protects wildlife and wetlands, manages the forestry and keeps the water shed fenced as part of a broader effort to safeguard the drinking supply. The gas well deal would allow the city to continue these environmental efforts while tapping into revenue streams locked thousands of feet below the surface where the Utica and Marcellus shale formation overlap in eastern Ohio.The deal would give the city a one-time payment of $500 and acre, or $237,500 total, Ludle said. In addition, the city would get 15% of the royalties for any producing wells. Drilling would not be permitted on the city’s 475 acres just south of the reservoir. Instead, the city said the operator, DP Energy Auburn LLC, would use adjacent, private property to drill down then turn horizontally to reach potential reserves below the city land. If the wells are dry, the contract says they would need to be capped after three years, at which point the city would take back the mineral rights. DP Energy Auburn LLC could not be reached for comment. According to Ohio Secretary of State records, the company was incorporated to do business in Ohio on Jan. 1 by Patrick D’Andrea, an Akron attorney whose website says he “handles oil and gas, real estate development, and personal injury cases.” Ludle said the 475 acres in question represent 3% of the public land around the reservoir. The deal would not allow the drilling company to access the land unless given city approval. And there would be no storage tanks, equipment or access roads installed on the city land.
Utica Shale Academy receives new industrial maintenance equipment— The new industrial maintenance equipment is ready for the students of the Utica Shale Academy and the school’s director Bill Watson said now they just need the students to return to be able to use it. Because of COVID-19 restrictions the students have been working on the portions of the program they can complete virtually and Watson said Tuesday much of that work is now done. The students need to be in the lab in order to complete the program this year. Watson said even if the school is unable to fully reopen, he is hoping to work with the county health department to get small groups students in the lab during separate times. The Utica Shale Academy industrial maintenance lab is located in Southern Local High School, where students are able to get hands on training in basic tools, electrical systems, pneumatics and hydraulics. Watson said they are very lucky to have found Matt Gates to teach the class, who really understands the maintenance systems overall and can also utilize the new technologies. Watson told the Utica Shale Academy board he is in the process of applying for two Remote X grants, a 21st Century Grant and another Equity Grant this year. One of those grants being sought would be used for purchasing virtual welding equipment for the same industrial maintenance lab, which would give students the opportunity to learn the technical parts of welding. There are currently 74 students at the Utica Shale Academy, including 24 seniors. The average attendance this year, despite many of the classes being held virtually, has been 75.22 days of the 80 possible. On Fridays, 34 of the students are attending classes through the New Castle School of Trades. As things have gone remote due to COVID-19, the school delivered 40 laptops to the students who needed them this year. Additionally, students in need are receiving meals every Wednesday throughout the county.
Critics, supporters weigh in on gas pipeline that would travel through Luzerne County -Supporters and critics of a proposed natural gas pipeline that would travel through Luzerne County had their voices heard Wednesday night during a virtual public hearing conducted by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. The PennEast Pipeline Company is seeking to create a 120-mile pipeline from Dallas Twp. to New Jersey. It’s seeking DEP permits regarding sediment and erosion control and also water encroachment. Dozens of people from throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey offered commentary during the hours-long virtual hearing. Those supporting the pipeline, like former Nanticoke Councilman Cameron Cox, testified that construction of the pipeline would be great for the economy. “These projects are huge job creators,” Cox said. “This is a no-brainer. We need to invest in infrastructure.” Phase 1 of the project is a 68-mile pipeline from Dallas Twp. to Bethlehem Twp. in Northampton County. Don Nealey, a resident of Bethlehem Twp., said he’s against the pipeline, as did representatives for groups like the Sierra Club. “My concern is related to safety,” Nealey said. Some of the critics said the pipeline would undoubtedly pollute the environment. They also said the project is unneeded. Several noted that several natural gas companies went bankrupt in the past year and prices are down due to a surplus of gas in the market. Phase 2 of the project would link the pipeline from Bethlehem Twp. to Mercer County, New Jersey.
DEC outlines violations at Dimes oil and gas wells in Allegany - — State environmental officials cited Dimes Energy in 2020 for several violations involving the drilling of oil and gas wells in the West Branch Road and Four Mile Road areas of the town of Allegany. The citations were for 160 separate violations — from leaking oil wells and sedimentation and erosion issues to failure to submit proper paperwork — but none were tied to the state Department of Environmental Conservation’s investigation into what caused the November 2019 explosion of a house on West Branch Road. However, Dimes hit the community and state’s radar following the blast that destroyed the home of Ron and Betty Jo Volz. As the Volz home had been in the vicinity of the drilling of Dimes’ wells in the West Branch and Four Mile area, neighbors voiced concerns of a connection between the oil well drilling and the explosion. Although the DEC has had an ongoing investigation of the incident and have monitored Dimes’ wells in that area, the agency currently has not found a connection between the company’s operation and the explosion. The DEC also has noted the Cattaraugus County Fire Investigation Team had concluded that combustible gas, from unknown sources, was found in the Volz water well and most likely caused the house explosion. TJ Pignataro of the DEC’s Office of Communications, Region, Buffalo, provided a statement from the agency which summarized violations found with oil and gas wells in Allegany drilled by Dimes before corrective action was taken. The statement, in part, noted the “DEC executed a consent order in August 2020 to hold Dimes Energy accountable for numerous violations associated with its Cattaraugus County-area oil and gas well operations. In addition, the consent order levies penalties up to $79,000, requires numerous corrective actions at its operations in Cattaraugus County, and includes an Environmental Benefit Project valued at least $60,000 that ensures the proper plugging of three orphan wells in the Allegany community.” The statement noted DEC inspected Dimes’ oil wells and associated facilities from late 2019 through this past summer, including petroleum bulk storage facilities in Cattaraugus County. “During these inspections of Dimes’ wells, field operations, and its administrative filings, 160 separate violations were revealed,” the statement said. “These violations included leaking oil wells, and associated pollution to the environment; inadequately identifying its wells, failing to remove pit fluids and cuttings from its well sites, failing to file temporary abandonment request forms, erosion and sedimentation violations, as well as having excessive vegetation and debris at its well sites.
Governor asked to intervene on Plum wastewater injection well - Community and environmental organizations have asked Gov. Tom Wolf to revoke a state issued permit for a shale gas fracking waste disposal well in Plum, saying the well could endanger public drinking water supplies in Pittsburgh and nearby communities. Protect PT, the Breathe Collaborative, and Citizens for Plum say in the letter to the governor that allowing the Penneco Sedat #3A class 2 waste injection well to operate will significantly increase the risk of toxic chemical and radioactive contamination of surface and groundwater, cause mine subsidence and increase chances of earthquakes. The letter, dated Wednesday, Jan. 13, and co-signed by 45 additional organizations and individuals, calls on the governor to nullify the state permit to protect the Allegheny River as a source of drinking water for the city of Pittsburgh and other communities. “With this urgent action,” the letter states, “you will protect our families, our communities and most importantly our water from the troubling, secretive, radioactive and toxic waste of the gas industry.” “It’s short-sighted to issue a permit and allow this well to operate given its long-term potential impact on city of Pittsburgh drinking water,” Gillian Graber, executive director of Protect PT, said in a virtual news conference Thursday. Delmont-based Penneco Environmental Solutions received a permit from the state Department of Environmental Protection in April 2020 that allows it to convert the former oil and gas well into a 1,900-foot deep wastewater disposal well that can accept more than 2.27 million gallons of briny, chemically contaminated fracking wastewater a month. The facility, which would be the first deep disposal well in Allegheny County, received a federal Environmental Protection Agency permit in March 2018. Opponents of the well, many of whom testified in opposition to the facility at public hearings, say in the letter to the governor that revocation of the state permit is warranted because of recently discovered structural deficiencies in the well, the potential for mine subsidence and earthquakes, and the disposal of radioactive wastewater that can cause cancer.
IN BRIEF: Penn. state senators sue over natural gas 'moratorium' by river commission | Reuters --Two Pennsylvania state senators filed a lawsuit Monday against the Delaware River Basin Commission in federal court claiming it has usurped the state’s legislative power by declaring a de facto moratorium on the construction and operation of wells for natural gas production in the parts of the Marcellus Shale formation encompassed by the basin.State Senators Gene Yaw and Lisa Baker as well as the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Caucus say that the federal interstate body, which oversees the Delaware River watershed in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Delaware, violates the underlying compact between the four states by prohibiting since 2010 the construction of gas wells within areas of the basin in Pennsylvania that overlap with the Marcellus Shale formation. They filed their complaint in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.To read the full story on Westlaw Today, click here: bit.ly/2LosdST
Student activists protest in Hartford and demand state action to cancel natural gas plant in Killingly - — A couple of dozen youthful protesters angry at Connecticut’s steps toward approval of a natural gas plant in Killingly took their complaints to the Capitol Wednesday, demanding the project be halted. Environmental activists staged a “die-in,” lying down on the icy ground at the edge of Bushnell Park in Hartford to call attention to their opposition to the 650-megawatt natural gas-fired electric generating plant. They say Gov. Ned Lamont and Energy and Environmental Protection Commissioner Katie Dykes are undermining their own clean energy policies by permitting the Killingly plant. “Do you want the plant to be a stain on your legacy?” asked Mitchel Kvedar, a UConn student and a leader of Sunrise Connecticut, a climate action group of college and high school students. Shutting down the plant isn’t simple: New England energy policy restricts state officials and the region’s grid operator operating in complicated energy markets. Will Healey, spokesman for the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, said pending permits are required by law and officials respect the concerns of opponents. Dykes is calling for New England’s grid operator, ISO-New England, to revamp energy markets to bring them more in line with clean energy goals, he said. ISO has said states control power plant construction and that the objective of New England’s competitive wholesale markets is to select the lowest-cost, most efficient resources to provide reliable power.
Mass. building gas ban movement expands after 2020 setback | S&P Global Market Intelligence - A Boston-area push to restrict natural gas use in new construction is evolving into a statewide campaign for building electrification mandates. A dozen towns and cities across Massachusetts have partnered with the Rocky Mountain Institute, or RMI, to advocate for the right to require all-electric construction in their communities. The communities ultimately aim to change Massachusetts law, allowing local governments to pursue climate goals through building electrification. The campaign follows Attorney General Maura Healey's July 2020 decision to strike down the East Coast's first building gas ban in Brookline, Mass. Based on a pioneering Berkeley, Calif., ordinance, the Brookline bylaw blocked building permits for construction or major renovations that included gas piping for space and water heating. SNL Image Healey's ruling was a blow to lawmakers and activists advancing similar legislation in nearby Arlington, Cambridge and Newton. The ruling established that state utility law preempts town bylaws and exposed city ordinances to legal peril. Following Healey's decision, building electrification backers regrouped and workshopped alternative pathways to achieve building electrification. The effort coincided with the formation of the RMI's Massachusetts Building Electrification Accelerator, a partnership among the RMI, Bay State climate activists and local officials. Twelve cities have publicly joined the accelerator: Amherst, Arlington, Ashland, Belmont, Brookline, Cambridge, Concord, Ipswich, Lexington, Melrose, Salem and Worcester. Several other municipalities have engaged with the project but have not yet publicly announced their affiliation. Accelerator participants stressed that their goal is not to receive permission on a community-by-community basis. Instead, they aim to demonstrate widespread support for electrification mandates through several shared strategies, making it untenable for the state Legislature to oppose them. Participants also intend to draw attention to the lack of policy options available to local governments seeking to help the state achieve its goal of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Forest Service grants pipeline's request to pass through Jefferson National Forest - The U.S. Forest Service has approved, for the second time, Mountain Valley Pipeline’s pathway through the Jefferson National Forest. A decision from James Hubbard, undersecretary of natural resources and the environment for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, was posted to the forest’s website early Monday morning. About three hours later, a coalition of environmental groups sued, seeking to have the permit set aside for a second time. Hubbard’s decision came more than two years after the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated Mountain Valley’s permit, ruling that the Forest Service did not take into account the amount of erosion and sedimentation that would be caused by running the largest natural gas pipeline in Virginia along steep mountain slopes. After more than two years of review, the agency issued a new permit that in large part mirrors its 2017 approval for the buried pipeline’s route through two sections of the forest — in Giles and Montgomery counties and Monroe County, West Virginia — that total 3.5 miles. The decision “redeems the Forest Service’s commitment to ensure the pipeline minimizes impacts and meets standards for sustainability and conservation of natural resources,” the service said in a news release. But that will likely be a question for the 4th Circuit, where the Sierra Club and seven other environmental groups brought their latest challenge Monday. Mountain Valley “still can’t show that there’s any way to build this pipeline without violating the laws that protect our national forests and clean water,” said Nathan Matthews, senior attorney for the Sierra Club. No construction can start in the forest until Mountain Valley has obtained all state and federal authorizations. The joint venture of five energy companies building the pipeline must still obtain a right of way from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which was struck down in the same 2018 decision that invalidated the Forest Service’s permit. Meanwhile, another permit that governs nearly 1,000 stream crossings for the pipeline was stayed Oct. 16 by the 4th Circuit, which is considering a legal challenge of that authorization by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Also pending is a third lawsuit that seeks to overturn a decision by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which ruled last September that the pipeline is not likely to jeopardize protected species of fish and bats.Critics said Monday’s decision was made by a political appointee who rushed to get the matter finalized before President Donald Trump’s departure from office Jan. 20.
Pipeline opponents sue to reverse Forest Service decision (WDBJ) - Opponents of the Mountain Valley Pipeline have filed suit to reverse a Forest Service decision allowing construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline on 3.5 miles of the Jefferson National Forest.On Monday, a coalition of conservation groups said they were petitioning the federal court of appeals to strike the Forest Service decision.“The Forest Service and BLM bowed to political pressure and rushed these decisions,” said David Sligh, Conservation Director of Wild Virginia. “They failed in their most basic duty, to rely on facts and science to make decisions that fully protect our national treasures.” A spokesperson for the Mountain Valley Pipeline released the following statement Monday, after the U.S. Forest Service released a decision allowing the controversial natural gas pipeline to cross 3.5 miles of the Jefferson National Forest. “The U.S. Forest Service posted a record of decision regarding MVP’s routing through the Jefferson National Forest, which the project team is currently reviewing. This decision by the USFS is one element of the ROW approval process, and the information will now be reviewed by the Bureau of Land Management and the FERC, the timeline for which is uncertain. Upon approval, and before construction would begin in the Jefferson National Forest, we will also need to consider other relevant factors, such as weather and availability of government oversight. Currently, MVP is continuing with its construction activities outside the JNF, within the constraints of winter weather conditions and in compliance with all environmental regulations and guidelines. In addition, the team remains focused on maintaining the project’s enhanced erosion & sedimentation controls that have been effectively put in place. MVP remains confident in its targeted full in-service date of late 2021.” The USDA Forest Service issued a final Record of Decision that amends the Jefferson National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan (Forest Plan) to allow the Mountain Valley Pipeline project to move forward.Click here to read the fill Record of Decision.The Record of Decision modifies certain standards in the Forest Plan to accommodate the pipeline construction and requires measures to minimize environmental impacts, according to the USDA. The Forest Service will also provide a letter of concurrence for the MVP Project to the Bureau of Land Management. Mountain Valley, however, is not authorized to undertake activities related to construction on national forest lands until the company has obtained all Federal and State authorizations outstanding for the entire project. The Bureau of Land Management is responsible for approving pipelines that cross federal lands under the jurisdiction of two or more federal agencies but must have the concurrence of the involved agencies.
Groups Appeal Alabama Public Service Commission’s Approval of $1+ Billion Gas Expansion | Southern Environmental Law Center —Energy Alabama, GASP, and the Southern Environmental Law Center are appealing the Public Service Commission’s approval of Alabama Power’s petition for its single largest capacity increase ever, with a price tag for customers of over $1.1 billion.The groups have filed an appeal in state court challenging the Commission’s decision allowing Alabama Power to increase its natural gas capacity by over 1800 megawatts, including building a new gas plant at the Barry Electric Generating Plant in Mobile County, while failing to approve a proposal to add 400 megawatts of solar plus battery energy storage projects.In September, the groups petitioned the Commission to reconsider its determination that this capacity increase is needed, especially in light of the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic; its decision to saddle customers instead of utility shareholders with the risk that the assets will become stranded; and its denial of the solar plus storage projects, which the utility’s own analysis showed had the most value for customers. The Commission denied the petition.Starting January 1, Alabama Power’s electric rates are increasing for all 1.48 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers, raising the average residential monthly bill by about $4. As a result of the new natural gas capacity, bills are expected to increase further starting in 2023.“Alabamians already pay some of the highest energy bills in the country and the pandemic has only worsened the financial hardships many are facing,” said Keith Johnston, Director of SELC’s Birmingham office. “Now the Commission is allowing Alabama Power to go forward with an unjustified, massive amount of new capacity that will further increase electricity rates, putting added strain on customers.”The Alabama Attorney General’s office raised concerns in the Commission proceedings that the proposed gas plants could become stranded or uneconomic as a result of new emission standards or changes in technology, and recommended that the Commission impose a condition requiring that Alabama Power and its shareholders bear any stranded costs associated with its proposal instead of customers.
Low Natural Gas, Oil Prices Break Two-Year Uptrend for Proved US Reserves, Says EIA - A two-year trend of rising proved reserves of natural gas and oil in the United States ground to a halt amid a decline in prices in 2019, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural gas proved reserves decreased 1.9% year/year in 2019 to 494.9 Tcf from 504.5 Tcf. This is the first annual decrease in proved gas reserve in the United States since 2015, but reserves remain at their second highest level ever, the agency said. Total U.S. gas production increased 9.8% year/year. Lower 48 basins fared better. Proved gas reserves from unconventional U.S. plays increased to 71% at year-end 2019 from 68% in 2018. The largest net gain by volume in 2019 occurred in Ohio, which grew by 10.4 Tcf. The EIA said the increase was driven by continuing development of the Utica/Point Pleasant shale play in the Appalachian Basin. The largest net decrease in proved gas reserves in 2019 was in Texas, which was down 12 Tcf in the period. The EIA said net downward revisions of reserves in the Eagle Ford and Barnett shales contributed the most to the annual drop. Declines in the Haynesville Shale also contributed to the steep decreases in Texas. Meanwhile, the annual average spot gas price at the benchmark Henry Hub decreased from 2018 by 21.5% from $3.35/MMBtu to $2.63/MMBtu, according to EIA. EIA collects independently developed estimates of proved reserves from a sample of operators of U.S. oil and natural gas fields with its Form EIA-23L. The agency uses the sample to further estimate the portion of proved reserves from operators that do not report. Responses were received from 372 of 412 sampled operators, which provided coverage of about 90% of proved reserves of oil and natural gas at the national level. On the oil side, proved reserves increased 367 million bbl in 2019, while proved reserves of lease condensate produced from gas wells dropped 313 million bbl, according to EIA. This yielded a net gain of 54 million bbl of proved reserves of crude and lease condensate to 47.1 billion bbl at year-end 2019, which is at the record level set in 2018. U.S. oil and condensate production increased 12.7% from 2018 to 2019. Alaska producers reported the largest net increase, adding 259 million bbl of proved reserves of oil and lease condensate in 2019, while producers in New Mexico saw the second-largest net increase of 226 million bbl. Texas rounded out the Top 3 with a 179 million bbl gain, with extensions and discoveries in the Permian Basin of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas contributing the most, according to EIA. Colorado recorded the biggest decline in proved reserves of crude and condensate, falling 154 million bbl in 2019. Meanwhile, the annual average spot price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil at Cushing, OK, decreased 15.1% in 2019, to $55.77/bbl from $65.66 in 2018. “Spot market prices are not necessarily the prices used by operators in their reserve estimates for EIA because actual prices received by operators depend on their particular contractual arrangements, location, hydrocarbon quality and other factors,” EIA said. “However, spot prices do provide a benchmark or trend indicator.”
Polar Vortex Potential, LNG Strength Bolster February Natural Gas Futures - Natural Gas Intelligence - Natural gas futures slipped early on Monday following forecasts for mild weather and diminished heating demand. However, they rebounded in afternoon trading and finished in the green amid anticipation of a late-month surge in frigid temperatures. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.747/MMBtu, up 4.7 cents day/day after falling more than 10 cents in morning trading. March gained 4.7 cents to $2.703. With conditions mostly mild Monday, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 3.5 cents to $2.745. “The forecast continued its warming trend over the weekend, due to a couple of factors,” Bespoke Weather Services said. “One is that the nearer-term forecast, with no quality cold source anywhere in North America, rolled forward warmer. The other reason is that, once we do see a true cold source develop up in Canada, it looks to impact the less populated western U.S. rather than the eastern half, keeping national demand no better than near normal.” Bespoke said it removed 15 gas-weighted degree days from its projections Monday compared to Friday’s forecast. Major weather models, however, showed negative North Atlantic Oscillation “tendencies into late month” that could lead to cold in the West shifting eastward and driving more demand. This “keeps the medium-range pattern interesting,” the firm added. National Weather Service meteorologists said a harsh winter chill could still blanket large swaths of the country near the end of January. They pointed to the potential for a polar vortex – a cold snap that develops in the atmosphere above the North Pole and sends harsh blasts of freezing temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This would drop temperatures in North America as well as Europe and Asia, key destinations for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG volumes, while steadily strong, dipped below 11 Bcf over the weekend and into Monday after hovering above that near-record threshold over several days last week, NGI data show. Low temperatures are already hanging near zero or below in parts of Asia, fueling robust heating demand and need for U.S. gas. Should an intense winter chill wash over the Lower 48 as well later this month, analysts expect domestic heating demand to surge and cut quickly into U.S. stockpiles. “Even with the bearish weekend model shift, the year/year storage surplus is still likely to largely evaporate this month,”
Natural Gas Futures Advance on Potential for Harsh Winter Freeze; Cash Prices Jump - Natural gas prices surged early on Tuesday amid expectations for intensifying U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand and increased anticipation of subfreezing air descending from Canada and covering large parts of the Lower 48 in late January. After spiking about 15 cents in morning trading, the February Nymex gas futures contract gave back much of the gains in the afternoon following midday weather runs that showed lighter intensity in the coming cold. When the dust cleared, however, the prompt month was up six-tenths of a cent day/day and settled at $2.753. March rose four-tenths of a cent to $2.707. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. advanced 18.0 cents to $2.925. While the American weather model was colder than the European, both early Tuesday called for a heavy dose of cold by late next week. Meteorologists were forecasting a pattern akin to what became known as the 2014 polar vortex. It sent widespread blasts of freezing air from the North Pole across much of the Northern Hemisphere. A repeat in late January could result in frigid air blanketing North America, Asia and Europe, fueling stronger domestic demand and continued robust demand for U.S. LNG.NatGasWeather said prices were boosted early by the “hype of cold now for Jan. 23-26.” Major models in the afternoon, however, showed “not quite as cold air into Western Canada, thereby pushing less impressive subfreezing air into the U.S. as well” in late January… “Of course, the data could flip back colder overnight and will be watched very closely by market participants.”Despite evolving views on its intensity and breadth, a looming chill is likely to develop in the western and central United States by late in the month, forecasters said, and this type of pattern historically has proven capable of driving Arctic cold across the East and as far south as Texas.
US weekly gas storage withdrawal beats estimates at 134 Bcf | S&P Global Market Intelligence - Storage operators withdrew a net 134 Bcf from natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 during the week ended Jan. 8, compared to a five-year-average withdrawal of 161 Bcf, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.The pull, which beat the 123 Bcf forecast by an S&P Global Platts analyst survey, brought total working gas supply in the Lower 48 to 3,196 Bcf, or 126 Bcf above the year-ago level and 218 Bcf above the five-year average. By region:
- * In the East, storage levels slid 39 Bcf on the week at 726 Bcf, down 0.1% from a year ago.
- * In the Midwest, stockpiles were down 44 Bcf at 879 Bcf, 2% higher than a year earlier.
- * In the Mountain region, inventories fell 8 Bcf at 188 Bcf, 16% higher than a year ago.
- * In the Pacific region, inventories declined 4 Bcf at 278 Bcf, 17% above the year-ago level.
- * In the South Central region, inventories were down 37 Bcf at 1,126 Bcf, 4% above a year earlier. Of that total, 327 Bcf of gas was in salt cavern facilities and 799 Bcf was in non-salt-cavern facilities. Working gas stocks fell 1.8% in salt cavern facilities from the week before and were down 3.7% in non-salt-cavern facilities.
US natural gas futures fall on mild weather - US natural gas futures fell to their lowest in a week on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained near record levels and last week’s storage draw was slightly bigger than expected. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 134 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the warmer than usual week ended January 8. That was bigger than the 128-bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of about 91 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average withdrawal of 161 bcf. Front-month gas futures fell 6.1 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $2.666 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Jan. 4. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That matches December’s eight-month high but falls short of the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Strong Finish Caps Solid Run for Weekly Natural Gas Prices - NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Jan. 11-15 period climbed 10.5 cents to $2.820, led by hubs in the Northeast. As the trading week closed, Tenn Zone 6 200L was up 73.0 cents to $4.220 and Dracut was ahead 49.5 cents to $4.175. Elsewhere, Henry Hub finished up 6.5 cents to $2.750, while Enable East gained 9.0 cents to $2.625. Generally comfortable conditions across most regions of the Lower 48 were expected for the third week of January, minimizing the odds of strong national heating demand. The final week of January, however, holds promise for intense cold settling in over the Northwest and Plains before moving east. This could result in several days of freezing temperatures over large swaths of the country. “We view the Jan 26-29 period as one of the best chances this winter for cold to finally come through,” NatGasWeather said Friday. Meteorologists are anticipating a polar vortex – a cold snap that develops in the atmosphere above the North Pole and sends harsh blasts of freezing temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Should this develop, it could drop temperatures in Europe and Asia, as well, adding to already strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Though views on its intensity varied during the latest covered week, a polar vortex-induced chill is likely to develop in the western and central United States, forecasters said, and this type of pattern historically has proven capable of driving Arctic cold across the East and as far south as Texas. Natural gas futures yo-yoed throughout the week, as traders tried to balance bearish weather trends against continued strong LNG demand and a bullish storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Futures rallied early in the week after meteorologists predicted the severe and sustained winter freeze that could blanket large swaths of the Lower 48 late in January. Futures, however, lost ground Wednesday and Thursday as weather models shifted warmer. Forecasts continued to show cold blasts late in January but the duration and reach of the freezing temperatures was scaled back, with uncertainty about cold Canadian air pushing out of the central United States into the East and South. By Friday, however, forecasts tilted back to stronger expectations for severe winter conditions and robust heating demand by late January, boosting futures in the week’s final day of trading by 7.1 cents. The February Nymex contract settled at $2.737/MMBtu on Friday, up 1.4% from the prior week’s finish.
Natural Gas 'Bridge Fuel' Narrative to Face Tougher Scrutiny Under Biden - With natural gas projected to play a major role in the global energy mix for decades to come, the incoming Biden Administration would need to mitigate the fuel’s environmental impacts as much as possible in order to fulfill his climate agenda, the most ambitious of any U.S. president in history. As a result, the industry likely faces more pressure than ever, especially with a Democrat-controlled Senate, to prove gas can be a bridge fuel to a low-carbon economy. Over the short term, this would require clamping down on methane leakage throughout the gas value chain, and on carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from combustion of the molecule. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is about 84 times more potent as a greenhouse gas during the first two decades after its release than CO2, according to the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). The gas industry, including national oil companies, supermajors, independents, midstreamers and utilities, has stepped up voluntary efforts to plug methane leaks and reduce routine gas flaring and venting amid growing calls from investors to take meaningful action on climate. However, as techniques for measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution have improved, the challenge appears increasingly daunting. A recent EDF study, for example, found that annual oil and gas methane emissions in New Mexico stand at an estimated 1.1 million metric tons, about five times higher than what current Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data suggest. Venting and flaring, meanwhile, reached record high levels in the United States during 2019. So far, only Alaska and Colorado have banned routine flaring and venting in the upstream segment. Venting contributes to methane emissions, as does incomplete combustion during the flaring process, while flaring converts methane to CO2. More broadly, climate change — practically an afterthought during the 2016 presidential campaign — has taken on a more prominent role in political discourse, as seen during the debates between Biden and President Trump. And while natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, it increasingly has been under the microscope as its share of the energy mix grows. “The world has changed a lot in four years,” “I think the industry is starting to really wake up to the fact that they have to deal with this black eye, which is methane…if they want to survive.”
Enbridge to Michigan: We won’t shut down Line 5 -- Enbridge Energy will not comply with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s order to shut down the controversial Line 5 pipeline by May, a company executive told state officials Tuesday. In a letter to Whitmer and Department of Natural Resources Director Dan Eichinger, Vern Yu, Enbridge’s executive vice president and president of liquids pipelines, questioned Michigan’s rationale for ordering the shutdown and maintained that “the Dual Pipelines will continue to operate safely until they are replaced on completion of the Tunnel Project.” Enbridge is awaiting permits in that project, which aims to replace the aging dual span pipes at the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac with a new pipe running through a tunnel beneath the lakebottom. Enbridge officials have said they plan to start building the tunnel this year and finish by 2024, but the company is still awaiting state and federal permits it needs to begin construction. Citing a litany of easement violations and broader concerns that the pipeline poses a dire risk of an oil spill, Whitmer notified Enbridge in November that she was revoking and terminating the 1953 easement that allows the company to operate Line 5 in the Straits. Whitmer ordered the Straits portion shut down by May. In a statement Tuesday, Eichinger called Enbridge’s letter an “attempt to power wash” a history of easement violations and said state officials “look forward to making our case in court, not via letters and press releases.” “Enbridge cannot unilaterally decide when laws and binding agreements apply and when they do not,” Eichinger said. “We stand behind our efforts to protect the Great Lakes, and we stand behind the substance of the November 2020 revocation and termination of the Easement.” After campaigning for office in 2018 on promises to shut down Line 5, Whitmer had faced mounting pressure to act since the company revealed in June that the pipeline had sustained “significant damage” from what was later revealed to be a probable anchor strike from a vessel owned by one the company’s contractors. In tandem with Whitmer’s shutdown order, state Attorney General Dana Nessel filed a lawsuit in Ingham County Circuit Court seeking to back up Whitmer’s action. “Enbridge has imposed on the people of Michigan an unacceptable risk of a catastrophic oil spill in the Great Lakes that could devastate our economy and way of life,” Whitmer said in a statement at the time. “That’s why we’re taking action now.”Enbridge responded quickly with a federal lawsuit seeking a ruling that federal pipeline safety regulations trump Michigan’s authority over Line 5. The company has asked the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan to dismiss Nessel’s Ingham County suit.
LSP commends SCOTUS rejection of suit against frac sand ban - Land Stewardship Project has expressed satisfaction with the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision to not overturn Winona County’s frac sand ban. On Monday, the court elected to not hear Minnesota Sands, LLC’s suit, which could have resulted in the ban eventually being uplifted. Minnesota Sands LLC, citing Southeast Minnesota Property Owners, claimed the ban violates equal protection, due process and private property rights. It added that silica sand has been mined in the state for over 100 years and that it is unique because it is “extremely” hard and round and made up of quartz, which makes it valuable for use in energy production around the country. The frac sand ban was passed in 2016 and Minnesota Sands, LLC subsequently sued in an attempt to overturn the decision. The Winona County District Court upheld the decision a year later, as did the Minnesota Court of Appeals in 2018, the Minnesota Supreme Court in 2020 and most recently the U.S. Supreme Court this past Monday. Back in October when Minnesota Sands, LLC announced it had filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court, LSP called the move “disappointing, but unsurprising.” “The land has inherent value, and the health of the land and of people are interconnected,” LSP said at that time. “All decisions about land use must be made with the needs of the future in mind.” “The people of Winona County have understood for many years that the frac sand mining, processing, and transport industry offers no benefit to rural communities and is too harmful to be allowed to operate in their communities.”
Fracking Ban Proposal Re-Emerges In Florida – – After the issue made little progress last year, Florida Senate Minority Leader Gary Farmer, D-Lighthouse Point, began a renewed effort Tuesday to ban fracking in Florida. Farmer filed a bill (SB 546) that would ban hydraulic fracturing — known as fracking — to extract oil and natural gas. The proposal also would ban a process known as matrix acidization, which uses many of the same chemicals as in hydraulic fracturing but dissolves rocks with acid instead of fracturing them with pressurized liquid. Farmer’s proposal is filed for the legislative session that starts March 2. It comes after years of efforts by some lawmakers and environmentalists to prevent the possibility of fracking in Florida. But the Legislature has rejected proposed bans, including bills last year that cleared only one Senate committee and no House committees.
Texas Oil-Gas Lobby Seeks Infrastructure Jolt to Boost Industry - Texas’s oil and gas lobby is calling on lawmakers to expand the state’s energy infrastructure and renew an economic development program, saying the moves are “essential to the state’s continued growth and success.” The requests are part of a three-part “roadmap to recovery” designed to drive greater investment in the industry as it recovers from the pandemic, said Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, or TXOGA. The group also wants lawmakers to keep oil and gas innovators at the table for “science-based policy and rational discussions related to environmental issues.”
Texas oil and gas group says new taxes, regulations will crimp rebound - With the storied Texas oil and gas sector still recovering from the devastating economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, the industry's main lobbying group is urging state lawmakers not to put any new obstacles in its path. Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil & Gas Association, said calls for increased taxes on production, known as severance taxes, should be resisted during the 2021 legislative session that begins this week, as should environmental regulations that aren't "rational" and based on what he called firm science. "When Texas oil and gas is healthy, all Texans are winners, and in a substantial way," Staples said Monday, speaking to reporters a day before the legislative session was set to start. Energy prices took a nosedive early last year when the pandemic first hammered the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell below $20 a barrel in March for the first time in 18 years — after beginning 2020 near $60 — and the state's rig count slumped to more than a 50-year low. Prices since have recovered, with oil trading recently around $52 a barrel. But they also have been volatile, and the energy sector overall is still reeling from lost revenue, bankruptcies and job cuts. In November, for instance, about 191,000 Texans were directly employed in the industry category that includes oil and gas extraction, according to the most recent figures available from the Texas Workforce Commission — 50,000 fewer than in the same month a year earlier. The downturn also has taken a bit out of the state budget. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar is projecting that revenue from the oil production tax will come in at $5.9 billion during the state's current two-year budget cycle, about 18% less than $7.2 billion in the previous two-year cycle. Hegar's forecast calls for the figure to rebound somewhat, to $6.5 billion, in the 2022-2023 budget cycle, based on his projection that oil will average $49 a barrel in 2022 and $55 in 2023. Staples, a Republican who formerly served as Texas agriculture commissioner, didn't comment specifically on Hegar's price projections Monday, saying a wide range of estimates exists.Still, he said the sector has been on a positive trajectory since the depths of the pandemic-induced downturn, so state lawmakers must be careful not to knock it off course. “Oil and natural gas are essential and irreplaceable," Staples said, an assertion he called evident even amid the pandemic. "While oil prices plummeted in the wake of the pandemic, the need for products made from oil and natural gas skyrocketed," he said. "Nearly every in-demand product we need to be safe and save lives, from face shields and other (personal protective equipment) to ventilators and hand sanitizers, is made from oil and natural gas.”
Summit's Permian Natural GasConduit Gets FERC OK to Start Construction –=- Federal regulators have approved the start of construction on all but a small portion of Summit Midstream Partners LP’s 135-mile Double E natural gas pipeline that would connect Permian Basin supplies to the Gulf Coast. Summit CEO Heath Deneke touted the “efficiency with which this project has achieved its key milestones” and confirmed the pipeline’s expected 2021 in-service before the end of this year. “Our world-class development team has maintained its focus on delivering the Double E project on time and under budget and has been instrumental in advancing the project and taking another step toward start-up,” Deneke said. In its Tuesday notice to proceed order, FERC said general construction activities associated with Double E may proceed, except for nine milepost ranges along Lines L100, T100 and T200. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said no construction activities would be permitted in those areas until the pipeline “requests follow-up permission to construct in these areas” and they are approved. Houston-based Summit sanctioned Double E in June 2019 to transport 1.35 Bcf/d from the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin to the Waha hub in West Texas and beyond. The midstreamer moved forward with the project after securing “sufficient” binding commitments for long-term, firm transportation service to various receipt points in New Mexico’s Eddy and Lea counties and the West Texas counties of Loving, Ward, Reeves and Pecos. From Waha, Double E would connect with “multiple current and planned takeaway pipelines” to demand centers south, according to Summit. Mexico Gas Price Index - Learn More ExxonMobil, an anchor shipper, has a 30% stake in the project. Double E is the second joint venture between Summit and ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil’s XTO Energy Inc. and Summit teamed up in 2017 to develop and operate an associated gas gathering and processing system to serve Permian operators in New Mexico. FERC, which authorized Double E in October, said the pipeline also is authorized to implement “project cultural resources treatment plans/mitigation measures, including archaeological data recovery.” Summit indicated that Double E has been granted the necessary rights-of-way on federal lands from the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management and has entered into memorandums of agreement regarding treatment and mitigation measures at certain cultural resource sites with FERC and the state historic preservation officers of New Mexico and Texas.
Feds Decline Comment on Exxon Permian Probe Report -- Exxon Mobil Corp. slumped after a newspaper report said the company is being investigated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly overvaluing a key asset in the Permian Basin. The probe stems from a whistleblower complaint that during a 2019 internal assessment workers were forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly wells could be drilled to reach a higher valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. At least one of the workers who complained was fired in 2020, the Journal said. In response, Exxon said the reported claims are “demonstrably false” and that the company “stands by” its statements to investors. Still, the probe may cast a shadow over Exxon’s efforts to turn a corner after its shares posted their worst annual performance in 40 years in 2020 amid a collapse in oil prices. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods has been forced to slash spending, and last month the company said it will write down the value of North and South American natural gas fields by as much as $20 billion. Exxon fell as much as 6% before paring losses to trade 4.1% lower at $48.25 at 12:12 p.m. in New York, snapping a nine-day rally. The SEC declined to comment. The SEC probe “shows the fragile foundation for the company’s $15 billion dividend. It’s a difficult case to prove, as oil companies are allowed to set their own assumptions on asset valuation, but suggests the company’s pre-pandemic plan to double underlying earnings by 2025 may be more aspirational than tangible.” It’s not the first time Exxon has been probed by the SEC over how it values assets. In 2016, Exxon was questioned by the regulator about why the company appeared immune from the multi-billion write downs affecting the rest of the industry. The issue was resolved without any action being taken. The SEC requires oil companies to report with reasonable certainty the volume of reserves in wells that are profitable at a price set by the agency the year before. Those wells must be drilled within five years of being added to a company’s books. The calculations take into account the rate at which a well’s production is likely to decline, how closely the wells are drilled, land and capital costs, as well as the price per barrel of crude.
Investigation Reveals Damaged Pipeline Caused 2018 Natural Gas Explosion That Killed Dallas Girl The National Transportation Safety Board met on Tuesday to determine the cause of a 2018 natural gas explosion that killed a 12-year-old girl in northwest Dallas. The federal agency declared the probable cause of the 2018 fatal explosion was a natural gas leak from a pipe that was damaged during a replacement done over 20 years ago. Jennifer Homendy, a national transportation safety board member, said procedures and decisions by Atmos Energy — the neighborhoods' natural gas provider — contributed to the explosions. “Contributing to the explosion was Atmos Energy Corporation’s insufficient wet weather leak investigations procedures. Contributing to the severity of the explosion was Atmos Energy Corporation’s inaction to isolate the affected main and evacuate the houses," Homendy said. "Contributing to the degradation of the pipelines system was Atmos Energy Corporation’s inadequate integrity management program." This same leak caused two other fires on the same street — Espanola Drive — days prior to the fatal explosion. The gas-related problems forced 300 families in the area to evacuate. The crack in the main pipeline led to numerous gas leaks throughout the neighborhood that went undetected. During the week of Feb. 23, 2018, the temperature in Dallas ranged from 32 to 54 degrees and there was heavy rainfall. Atmos Energy, said those conditions made it difficult to investigate or quickly repair multiple leaks. “They could have tested the customer piping. In this case it turned out they could have also tested the customer piping all the way to the appliances,” said Sara Lyons, the investigator in charge, who looked into the response by Atmos Energy. This led the investigations team to take an in-depth look at the energy company's protocols when customers file complaints or incidents happen. They found insufficient training and resources are given to employees and that there are no clear protocols on how to access damages.
US Midstream Possibly Normalizing in 2021, but Overbuild Still Major Problem, Say Experts -- The North American oil and natural gas midstream sector is certainly not “out of the woods,” but 2021 could look relatively “normal” in 2021, according to Raymond James & Associates Inc. Though driven largely by supply, the Raymond James team remains bullish on the price outlook across the hydrocarbon spectrum. The analysts said the demand-pull environment “still looks attractive” in 2021 and beyond, with the recovery in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports adding to a “solid base.” U.S. LNG exports “have recovered massively thanks in part to soaring Asian prices — as about as good of a recovery play as one can find within the U.S. midstream space,” said the Raymond James team, led by analysts Justin Jenkins and J.R. Weston. Furthermore, natural gas liquids (NGL) markets are expected to tighten and support gathering and processing (G&P) and pricing, according to the analysts, with G&P offering investors the most “bang for their buck” going forward. Propane markets, meanwhile, are “very tight,” though the budding optimism in the market “might be a touch excessive.” Additionally, the firm said with demand/export growth on deck and some supply headwinds, ethane recovery “should happen everywhere” other than the Bakken Shale — “perhaps providing more of a volume tailwind than would have otherwise been expected.” On the refined products side, the Raymond James team sees demand improving through 2021, with the real inflection occurring around mid-year. “This improvement should benefit our refining coverage, and higher utilization rates should flow through as higher volumes across the midstream value chain.” Operationally, the analysts said it’s general consensus that the Permian Basin would lead the next leg of performance among midstreamer companies, but the Bakken/Denver-Julesburg Basin needs prices around $50/bbl to work. “We are now there, but will it hold?” analysts said. The firm noted that the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies may offer some support. Analysts noted that dry gas may play a role in the eventual supply response, with Haynesville Shale activity possibly picking up more quickly than the Marcellus/Utica shales. On a macro level, Raymond James said while the U.S. economy’s flip from lockdown to reopen mode jump-started the midstream sector late last year, inflation, its impact on the U.S. dollar and how this corresponds to oil prices could benefit the energy sector more broadly in the year ahead. Meanwhile, possible shifts in the U.S. tax regime should favor master limited partnerships primarily, and midstreamers’ contractual ability to pass through inflation to customers has become a “widely under-appreciated item.”
Oil executives in Oklahoma say they're making plans for what they say will be a tough era — Nine days until the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, and oil executives in Oklahoma are making plans for what they say will be a tough era. Biden promised a carbon-neutral nation by 2050. KOCO 5 asked executives how they’re feeling. “Get rid of the oil and gas companies? Will you remember that, Texas? Will you remember that, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma?” President Donald Trump said during one of the presidential debates. That comment during the heated debate between Trump and Biden sparked some interest among Oklahomans. “The oil industry pollutes scientifically,” Biden said during the debate. Biden further explained he wanted to move away from fossil fuels and rely on green energy. Dewey Bartlett, with the Oklahoma Energy Producer Alliance, said regardless of his political beliefs, he panicked when he heard Biden say he plans to move away from fossil fuels. “We’ll be having problems. Everyone will be having problems,” Bartlett said. “That would not only devastate Oklahoma, that would devastate the entire country.” According to ABC News, energy companies stockpiled enough drilling permits for western public lands to keep pumping oil for years. Biden wants to end new drilling on those same lands as part of his overhaul of how Americans get energy. “He wanted to not allow any more drilling on federal lands, on public lands,” Bartlett said. But that’s not happening in Oklahoma because the oil and gas companies don’t operate on too many federal lands. Instead, Bartlett said they feel like sitting ducks, waiting to find out what types of regulations Biden might put into place. “There are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the Biden administration. But I can say it’s not going to be good,” Bartlett said.
New Trump rule expected to cut costs for public lands drilling -The Trump administration is finalizing a rule that will lessen the amount of money oil and gas companies that drill on public lands and in public waters pay to the federal government. The rule will make changes to the way that these royalties are calculated and, according to the administration, is expected to result in an annual decrease of $28.9 million in royalty collections. The rule, promulgated by the Interior Department’s Office of Natural Resources Revenue, notes that this figure is less than 0.5 percent of the total federal oil and gas royalties it collected in 2018. The industry has argued that a previous rule on how the royalties are calculated was burdensome and created uncertainties. Opponents of the changes, however, argue that the new rule helps fossil fuel companies and harms taxpayers. “This is a blatant attempt to reopen loopholes for the oil and gas industry and allow them to skirt royalty payments owed to American taxpayers for publicly owned resources,” said Jesse Prentice-Dunn, the policy director at the Center for Western Priorities.“It’s just an open and shut case of delivering benefits to the oil and gas industry at the expense of the American people,” Prentice-Dunn added. The rule allows companies that extract oil and gas from water that’s 200 meters deep or more to deduct certain costs. It will also allow the consideration of mitigating circumstances when royalty payments are late.The rule would also use the average weekly benchmark price for the commodities rather than the highest weekly benchmark prices to calculate royalty payments for certain sales. Measures that were previously proposed as part of the rule to remove hard caps on transportation and processing deductions did not make it into the final version, though the department will allow lessees to request allowances for extraordinary processing circumstances. The rule follows a 2019 letter from an oil and gas industry group seeking changes to the way that the royalties are calculated. The letter takes issue with matters that were addressed in the new rule, saying that gas benchmark prices were “unattainable” and arguing that subsea extraction requires additional transportation and should thus receive an allowance. “API strongly urges the Department to consider a new rulemaking to correct these issues and to establish policies that truly do provide valuation simplicity and certainty,” API senior policy adviser Emily Hague wrote at the time.
Oil companies lock in drilling, challenging Biden on climate – (AP) — In the closing months of the Trump administration, energy companies stockpiled enough drilling permits for western public lands to keep pumping oil for years and undercut President-elect Joe Biden's plans to curb new drilling because of climate change, according to public records and industry analysts. An Associated Press analysis of government data shows the permit stockpiling has centered on oil-rich federal lands in New Mexico and Wyoming. It accelerated during the fall as Biden was cementing his lead over President Donald Trump and peaked in December, aided by speedier permitting approvals since Trump took office. The goal for companies is to lock in drilling rights on oil and gas leases on vast public lands where they make royalty payments on any resources extracted. Biden wants to end new drilling on those same lands as part of his overhaul of how Americans get energy, with the goal of making the nation carbon neutral by 2050. Companies submitted more than 3,000 drilling permit applications in a three-month period that included the election, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. Officials approved almost 1,400 drilling applications during that time amidst the pandemic. That's the highest number of approvals during Trump's four-year term, according to AP's analysis. In Colorado, a dozen permits are approved or pending to drill in Pawnee National Grassland, a birding destination where wildflowers and cactuses bloom below the buttes. In Wyoming’s Thunder Basin National Grassland, a prairie expanse that abounds with wildlife and offers hiking, fishing and hunting, oil companies EOG Resources and Devon Energy — which amassed the most federal permits this year — have permission to drill three dozen wells among fields of sage brush. The administration issued more than 4,700 drilling permits in 2020 — comparable to approval numbers from early last decade when oil topped $100 a barrel, roughly twice the current price. Making it easier to drill was a centerpiece of Trump's effort to boost American energy production in part by enticing companies onto lands and offshore areas run by the U.S. departments of Interior and Agriculture. Under Trump, crude production from federal and tribal lands and waters increased sharply, topping a billion barrels in 2019. That was up by almost a third from the last year of the Obama administration. But this year the coronavirus pandemic and crashing oil prices caused many companies to curtail their activity. With markets still in flux and oil producers slashing budgets, major companies nevertheless have been acquiring enough permits to keep pumping through Biden’s upcoming term. The government approved about 500 new drilling permits in September, more than double the same month in 2019.The oil industry’s fear is that Biden will follow through on campaign pledges and make it impossible or much harder to drill on public lands. “You go from having a champion in the White House, who steers the entire federal apparatus to wanting you to be successful, to someone who is hostile to the industry,”
American Petroleum Institute Chief Promises to Fight Biden and the Democrats on Drilling, Tax Policy - It’s a tough time for the nation’s oil and gas industry. Last year was among its least profitable in memory, and companies are bracing themselves for a new president focused on climate change, a Congress controlled by Democrats who increasingly shun their financial support and a world beginning to look past fossil fuels towards a cleaner energy future in which they will become smaller players, if not obsolete. That was the unspoken backdrop for a speech Wednesday by Mike Sommers, head of the American Petroleum Institute, who said that his industry was confident about its future and prepared to fight back against policies that President-elect Joe Biden had promised as a candidate, including a halt to new drilling on public lands and the elimination of billions of dollars in industry tax breaks. Speaking at API’s annual “State of American Energy” event, broadcast by video this year, Sommers asserted that his industry remains an essential part of the nation’s energy sector and economy. He noted that it continued operating throughout the pandemic and produced materials that go into face masks, gowns and other medical equipment. He also offered a point-by-point rebuttal of policies promised by Biden and the Democrats that would limit his industry’s production and pollution, foreshadowing the looming fights they are likely to face as they try to enact a new agenda phasing out fossil fuels. A prominent part of that platform is Biden’s pledge to halt new oil and gas development on federal lands by ending new leasing or permitting for such projects. Sommers said API would do all it could to fight such a move, including leaning on members of Congress and potentially challenging a ban in court. And he tried to frame the issue not just as a threat to his industry, but to the economy. “If lawmakers curtail resource development and energy prices spike,” he said, “it’s working people and consumers who will suffer.” Biden and clean energy advocates have argued that developing renewable energy and retrofitting buildings to be more energy efficient can generate millions of new jobs and tax revenues, without the pollution that comes from fossil fuels. But Sommers, as part of his presentation, showed a video of a teacher in New Mexico, who warned that if drilling on federal lands were curtailed, her district would be forced to lay-off teachers and increase class sizes. The choice of New Mexico was noteworthy. Federal land in the blue state is home to part of the booming Permian Basin, which also stretches into Texas.Biden has nominated Rep. Deb Haaland, a New Mexico Democrat, to head the Interior Department, which oversees drilling on federal lands. Haaland, who is Native American, traveled to the Standing Rock Sioux camps to support the protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline in 2016, and she has expressed support for halting fossil fuel development on federal lands.
The Big Oil Money Behind Congress Members Who Fueled Attack - Two of the key ingredients for the violent insurrection were 123 House Republicans who signed onto a Texas lawsuit full of baseless claims and legal theories and more than a dozen Republican senators who invoked conspiracy theories to challenge the election results. Many of those people are in power thanks to the political donations of none other than Chevron. The company is hardly alone; other fossil fuel companies and the industry’s main trade group have also plunged money into the coffers of those who objected to a free and fair election. Earther pulled data directly from the Federal Election Commission for individual donations and aggregator site Open Secrets to see just how much corporate PACs of Chevron and Exxon, two of the largest oil companies in the U.S., and the American Petroleum Institute, the main trade group, gave members of Congress who helped inspire Wednesday’s violence with their actions and rhetoric. We also reached out to these entities to see if they would continue to fund the campaigns of any members of Congress who challenged the election results.In Chevron’s case, the company’s corporate PAC donated $745,000 to those House members over the past decade and more than $127,000 to the seditious senators. Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, who led the push to challenge election results in states they don’t represent and cheered on protesters, each received $10,000 from Chevron’s PAC in 2018. Cruz also enjoyed a $15,000 donation from the company’s PAC for his Senate run in 2012. Those donations went to helping re-elect Cruz and elect Hawley. On the House side, the PAC has spent $58,000 keeping House Minority Whip Steve Scalise in office. Scalise, who is intimately familiar with politically motivated violence having been shot at a House softball practice in 2017, baselessly saidprior to the riots that “there have been serious questions about the integrity of the electoral process.” Other recipients include Rep. Dan Crenshaw ($11,000), who put out a Mission Impossible-style video glorifying attacking political enemies ahead of the Georgia runoff; Rep. Kevin Brady ($56,500), who began to question the election before the results were even fully in; and Rep. Mark Mullwayne ($17,500), who called the attack on the Capitol a false flag even as police were trying to clear the mob. Exxon was just as generous as Chevron was with Cruz, giving him $25,000 over the course of his tenure in the Senate. The company goes way back with Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who said she would challenge the results before backing down after the violence; their first donation to her goes back to 2003 when she was running for the House, and they’ve donated to her in every election since, records show. Over the past decade, Exxon’s PAC has kicked nearly $1.5 million to guilty House members, basically twice Chevron’s investment in ending democracy. Scalise ($44,000) again cleaned up as did Brady ($52,000), It’s also given to Rep. Mo Brooks ($5,000), who also went the false flag route on the attack and also thinks sea level rise is caused by rocks falling into the ocean (sorry, but it’s my favorite fact); Rep. Barry Loudermilk ($17,000), who wanted to decertify Georgia’s results presidential results, which is very convenient for him since he represents a Georgia district; and Rep. Elise Stefanik ($33,500), one of the few women in the Republican caucus to challenge the results, whom Trump praised during impeachment proceedings as a “new Republican Star [sic].”
U.S. Supreme Court Tosses Review of Minnesota County Fracture Sand Ban - - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday denied a petition that sought to overturn a Minnesota county ordinance banning the mining of silica sand, which is used in some Lower 48 well completions. Minnesota Sands LLC, which filed its initial lawsuit in 2017, was challenging an adverse ruling by the Supreme Court of Minnesota regarding Winona County’s ban imposed in 2016 (No. A18-0090). Five years ago Winona County banned sand mining that was commercially “valuable for use in the hydraulic fracturing of shale to obtain oil and natural gas.” However, the county still allowed the same silica sand to be mined for “local construction” uses. Minnesota Sands President Rick Frick at the time the company filed the initial lawsuit said, “Banning this type of mining based on the end use of this resource is not only unconstitutional, it takes away the rights of landowners and defies common sense…” The ban has not changed the fact that the energy industry in the U.S. has dramatically recovered from recent economic challenges and there is now a growing need for the kind of silica we are lucky to have here. “It has instead hurt people here and ignores the fact Minnesota already has a very rigorous and thorough approval and review process for any mining project.” A divided Supreme Court of Minnesota last year ruled against the company and held that the ban did not violate the U.S. Constitution’s Commerce or Takings clauses. Minnesota Sands appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing a “conflict with clear rulings” for similar lawsuits. In addition, Minnesota Sands said the state ruling threatened “an industry that is vital to the nation’s energy supply.”
Protesters gather at Line 3 construction site in Aitkin County - Opponents of the Line 3 oil pipeline replacement project gathered Saturday in northern Minnesota to protest its construction across northern Minnesota. By mid-morning, a couple hundred people had gathered near Palisade in Aitkin County, where the controversial pipeline Enbridge Energy is building is expected to cross under the Mississippi River. Opponents of the project, who call themselves water protectors, carried signs and walked down a county road. Some Native women danced in jingle dresses, a healing tradition. “There's a lot of folks that came to bring their prayers and to stand for the rivers for our future generations against big oil." The group later traveled to just south of Hill City, where they blocked traffic on U.S. Highway 169. Eight people were arrested; law enforcement officials said seven people were booked on possible charges of gross misdemeanor trespass on critical infrastructure, and the eighth person was cited and released for failing to leave an unlawful assembly.Enbridge Energy started construction on the 338-mile pipeline in December after receiving the necessary permits. Opponents have filed a federal suit seeking to halt construction on the project. The pipeline construction project is expected to employ more than 4,000 skilled workers. Supporters say it will bring additional tax revenue to northern Minnesota in a slow economy.
Line 3 protesters chain themselves together in piece of pipe (AP) — Two people accused of chaining themselves together inside a piece of pipe to protest construction of the Enbridge Energy Line 3 oil pipeline replacement in northern Minnesota were arrested Thursday morning, authorities said. Cass County Sheriff Tom Burch said the incident took place about 10:30 a.m. in McKinley Township, west of the town of Backus. He said the protesters were taken into custody without incident and face charges of trespassing and obstructing. About a dozen protesters showed up at the site. One man was arrested for refusing to leave the area and one woman was arrested for violating conditions of release on a previous arrest, Burch said. Line 3 starts in Alberta, Canada, and clips a corner of North Dakota before crossing northern Minnesota en route to Enbridge’s terminal in Superior, Wisconsin. The 337-mile (542-kilometer) line in Minnesota is the last step in replacing the deteriorating pipeline that was built in the 1960s. Construction on Thursday morning was interrupted “for about an hour or two,” Burch said. “I can’t emphasize enough how respectful the protesters are,” Burch said. “It makes everybody’s job and this whole issue a lot easier.”
Water Protectors Arrested in Minnesota After Chaining Themselves Inside Enbridge Line 3 Pipe - Water protectors were arrested Thursday after halting construction at a Minnesota worksite for Enbridge's Line 3 project by locking themselves together inside a pipe segment. "After moving to Minnesota to attend college and study environmental science, I was excited to be in a place where people valued protecting the Earth and finding a viable future. What I found, however, was a state that had formed 'ambitious' climate goals yet endorsed one of the dirtiest fossil fuels, tar sands oil," water protector Abby Hornberger said in a statement. "I realized that Indigenous ways of knowing and practicing harmony with the environment are continuously ignored." KFGO reports that Cass County Sheriff Tom Burch said two protesters who were taken into custody on Thursday now face charges of trespassing and obstructing. Hornberger explained that "the Line 3 pipeline far outweighs all clean energy initiatives and progress being made in renewable energies. Line 3 will destroy Minnesota's essential clean water resources for future generations and will ultimately drive us into climate doom. Education and spreading awareness is no longer enough to create meaningful change for me." "Enbridge's last-ditch effort to build fossil fuel infrastructure is killing people and the planet. I refuse to be complicit in settler colonialist practices, and feel that I have to put my body on the line to protect Indigenous communities' sovereignty and all of our futures," Hornberger added. "This is not just an issue relevant to some, it affects each of us on a deeper level that goes beyond our daily lives. It determines if we will have a livable future." Indigenous and environmental activists have long opposed the Canadian company's efforts to replace an aging oil pipeline with a larger one running from Alberta, through North Dakota and Minnesota, to Wisconsin — noting Enbridge's track record on spills and that cultural maps indicate "numerous sacred and significant sites lie in the path of the Line 3 project." Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has come under fire from Indigenous and climate leaders in recent months as the state has approved key permits that Enbridge needs to complete the new Line 3, especially given the Democratic governor said publicly in February of 2019 that projects like this one "don't just need a building permit to go forward, they also need a social permit." As some water protectors on Thursday protested inside a pipe segment a few miles from a man camp in Backus, "dozens more held space," according to the Giniw Collective. The group also pointed out that "Enbridge is working 24 hours per day at several worksites, as a pending injunction to halt work while tribally led lawsuits are heard has yet to be decided."Water protector Andrew Lee said that he participated in the action against Line 3 on Thursday "to protect the treaties that my ancestors failed to uphold." "I've learned over the course of this year that Tim Walz isn't going to protect us, the government of Minnesota isn't going to protect us, and the federal government isn't going to protect us," Lee continued. "I believe it is my duty, as a colonizer and as a person with the privilege, to do so, to put my body on the line to stop the Enbridge Corporation from building this pipeline."
Stopping Trump’s Last Pipeline Will Take All of Us - Winona LaDuke - In normal times, about 100 souls live in this small Northern Minnesota town on the banks of the Mississippi River where we are making our stand against one of the largest tar sands pipeline projects in North America. Known as Line 3, it has the potential to carry 915,000 barrels a day of dirty oil over 1000 miles, from Alberta in Canada to Superior, Wis. Palisade is the kind of place where most people know one another a couple of generations back, a town with a tiny main street and just one café. Now there are about 400 workers here—most from out of state—rolling heavy trucks and equipment down icy, windy unfamiliar roads every day. This small town is nestled in the deep woods and muskegs of Aitkin County, the lands of the Chippewa of the Mississippi, as my people are known. Akiing, the Anishinaabe word for “the land to which the people belong,” is half land and half water. Waters deep and shallow filled with wild rice, sturgeon and muskies, and all the mysteries of the deep waters. This is the only place in the world where wild rice grows. Each year in succession the manoomin returns, the only grain native to North America. This is the homeland of the Anishinaabe. And here Enbridge, the largest pipeline company in the world, is hell-bent on jamming through their Line 3 Pipeline, the company’s most massive project, under the cover of this Covid winter as fast as they can—before we can stop them and before the world takes notice.From the Water Protector Center at the edge of the pipeline route, Water Protectors gather. We hear the pounding all day long. The constant roar of heavy machinery as it rips through the forest and the wetlands. It’s brutal work, and dangerous as hell. Two weeks ago, Jorge Lopez Villafuerte was killed in the Enbridge Pipeyard, run over by a forklift. He came here from Utah for work. Instead, he found death. Enbridge halted work in the area for less than four hours—and then the pounding began again.Then there’s the armed forces, the sheriff’s office, and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) who have deployed here. Their wages are paid by Enbridge. That’s because Minnesota noted the $38 million bill for Standing Rock, and decided just to pay in advance. A Canadian corporation paying for the police in Minnesota. It looks like an occupation. It feels like an occupation. With all the violence that entails. First the big dozers came, then the excavators, backhoes, and buncher fellers. That last one just sort of walks through the forest, beheads a tree, drops the top to one side, and then comes back for the rest of the tree. This is how Enbridge rolls through a forest. They are gunning for the rivers now, heading straight for them: the Mississippi, the Willow, the Shell, the Little Shell, the Crow Wing: 22 rivers crossings in all. They are coming with something called a High Directional Drill. So they can drill under the river, just like they did at Standing Rock, at the Cannonball River. It feels a lot like a rape.We have been fighting this pipeline for seven years. And so far we’ve held it off in the courts and through the permitting process. The carbon output would be equivalent to opening 50 new coal plants—more carbon emissions than the entire current Minnesota economy. And all this for a dying industry. Energy companies and investors are fleeing the tar sands. Keystone XL is doomed, Dakota Access is in a legal mess (federal courts have ruled that its Environmental Impact Statement is inadequate). Enbridge itself is putting 400,000 barrels a day less through its main lines than they did a year ago. But the company still wants to sell this last pipeline. The Last Tar Sands Pipeline. Our governor, Tim Walz, took the bait. Minnesota needs real infrastructure: water, sewer, and bridges. But we’re getting a climate bomb pipeline instead.
Williams County gas processing plant, pipeline complete - Construction has finished on a natural gas processing plant west of Williston. Outrigger Energy II's Bill Sanderson Gas Processing Plant can handle up to 250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. It's a cryogenic facility, meaning it can go further than some of the other processing plants in the state by cooling the gas enough to separate out ethane and propane from methane, the main component of raw natural gas. An 80-mile pipeline starting in southeastern Williams County connects to the facility. It will pick up natural gas from wells along the way, including from anchor customer XTO Energy, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil. The pipeline system and processing plant are not yet operational but likely will be later in 2021, as oil and gas production is expected to pick up, said Alex Woodruff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer for Outrigger. North Dakota's oil and gas output fell in 2020 amid a price collapse brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, though prices have slowly trickled back up in recent months. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. pricing benchmark, hit $53 per barrel Thursday. Many oil watchers say $55 per barrel is needed to spur more drilling in North Dakota. "While Williston Basin activity levels clearly slowed due to the 2020 crude oil pricing and COVID-19 environments, we are seeing substantial interest from producers to accommodate future drilling plans as crude oil prices near sustainable levels for the Basin," Outrigger CEO Dave Keanini said in a statement. "Our assets are perfectly situated to provide producers with a competitive midstream option for both new development and volumes that are currently flaring due to infrastructure constraints."
Large power plant slated for Williston area to harness Bakken's ethane supply - A large power plant is slated to go in west of Williston that would run on ethane, an abundant component of natural gas produced in the Bakken. The developer, Bakken Midstream Natural Gas, hopes to begin construction of the $400 million facility in 2022. CEO Mike Hopkins said the plant will help alleviate the wasteful flaring of excess natural gas, provide a cheap source of electricity and help lure more “value-added” projects to the region to make use of natural gas liquids such as ethane. North Dakota produces about 350,000 barrels per day of ethane, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. Ethane makes up 20% of the content of raw natural gas, which is extracted alongside oil from deep underground. Ethane and other natural gas liquids are separated from methane -- the main component of natural gas -- at processing facilities scattered throughout the Bakken. Ethane and other parts of the gas stream such as propane and butane exist in liquid form and are exported via pipeline to markets in other states. State leaders, along with the oil and gas industry, have for several years sought to attract projects to North Dakota that make use of natural gas liquids in the Bakken. “What North Dakota does not have is a lot of the infrastructure, in fact most of the infrastructure you’d want to see,” Hopkins said. Bakken Midstream formed in 2018 with a mission to develop such projects, even securing a $200,000 investment from the North Dakota Department of Commerce in 2019. State leaders have long discussed a desire to establish a petrochemical industry in North Dakota that would use ethane and other liquids. Petrochemical projects such as plastics manufacturing can be enormous in scope, and Hopkins said Bakken Midstream settled first on the power plant in an effort to achieve “something relatively near-term.” Construction is expected to take two years. Creating infrastructure for ethane in North Dakota could make the state more attractive to other companies seeking to build ethane-based projects, Hopkins said. Bakken Midstream considered focusing on developing a large gas-fired power plant, but it shifted gears to ethane given recent advances in turbine technology allowing for power generation from the substance. Using ethane to run a large power plant is a relatively new concept. It’s been used before in Asia, but on a smaller scale, Hopkins said. The Williston Basin Energy Center will have a capacity of hundreds of megawatts, he said. “It’s going to be running pretty much 24/7 as a baseload plant,” he said.
OPEC, shale output needs to rise to offset possible year-end supply squeeze: Vitol CEO | S&P Global Platts — OPEC and shale oil output will need to rise this year to help offset a potential supply squeeze by the year-end as the markets play catch-up with 2019 demand levels, the CEO of Vitol said Jan. 13. "The market is fast forwarding to a point where demand kind of catches up with where it was in 2019," Russell Hardy told the Global UAE Energy Forum 2021 organized by Gulf Intelligence. "With that catch-up, we are going to need more OPEC oil and we may need some more shale oil as well, so the market is anticipating that and it's trying to ultimately get ahead of a potential supply problem later on in the year." OPEC+ members, excluding Kazakhstan and Russia, decided to keep their output in February and March steady from January after two days of contentious talks this month. Saudi Arabia, however, surprised the market by announcing a voluntary 1 million b/d cut for February and March that has helped buoy Brent prices to nearly touch $57/b, an 11-month high. OPEC and its nine allies, led by Russia, decided in December after days of heated negotiations to ease their stringent quotas by a collective 500,000 b/d for January, instead of the originally scheduled 2 million b/d tapering. Vitol is forecasting oil demand will increase by 6 million-6.5 million b/d in 2021 -- "an enormous change," said Hardy. "Demand, it is going to get covered by additional OPEC+ production," he said. "Those increases are coming but are coming probably a tad more slowly than we might have anticipated a couple of months ago because of the virus effect here in Europe." Several European countries are in lockdown as a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic spreads through the continent. However, the roll-out of the vaccine and a cold winter are offsetting the impact of lockdowns on oil demand and prices. The US Energy Information Administration revised its crude price forecast higher in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Jan. 12 amid tightened supply outlooks and upward-trending demand projections. The EIA now expects Brent crude prices to average at around $52.75/b in 2021, up $4.25/b from its December forecast, and at $53.42/b in 2022, and the WTI spot price to average at around $49.75/b in 2021, up $4/b from its most recent report, and at $49.79/b in 2022.6:14 PM
Arctic Refuge oil lease sale an act of desperation - The first step in recovering from any addiction is to tell the truth — admit the addiction, admit its consequences. This is something we still seem unwilling to do with our addiction to oil, particularly here in Alaska. The Trump administration’s rush to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the desperation of a junkie looking for one more fix. The lease sale this week, long-sought by oil proponents, attracted bids on only 11 of the 22 tracts offered, mostly from the State of Alaska itself. Bids totaled only about $14 million, half of which will be returned to the State of Alaska. The sale was an embarrassing bust, a spectacular humiliation for the State of Alaska and the Trump administration. For decades, oil advocates have desperately wanted to drill for oil on the Arctic Refuge coastal plain, hoping there may be eight billion barrels there. But the Refuge is also one of the most sublime Arctic wilderness areas on Earth, home to thousands of caribou, polar bears, grizzly bears, muskox, and birds, and an important subsistence region for Alaska Native peoples. Most Americans feel that oil beneath the Arctic Refuge coastal plain should stay right where it is – in the ground. Many banks agree, and will no longer finance Arctic oil projects. Against overwhelming nationwide opposition, Alaska’s Republican congressional delegation inserted the Arctic Refuge drilling provision into the 2017 tax act, ludicrously asserting that revenues from the lease sales would help offset the huge tax cuts in the bill. They won’t come close. And as president-elect Biden has promised to permanently protect the Arctic Refuge from drilling, the Trump administration rushed to hold the Refuge oil lease sale just two weeks before leaving office. Worried that no major oil companies would bid, the State of Alaska bid on eleven Refuge tracts itself, although under federal law it is almost certainly an ineligible bidder. In fact, except for two small independent bids, the state was the only bidder. The Department of Interior’s Inspector General is already investigating the propriety of the state’s bids. This is a spectacular humiliation for oil advocates who long wanted this sale. Alaska’s continuing resistance to embracing an oil-free future is a bit like the last Japanese soldier refusing to surrender until almost 30 years after the end of WWII. As an energy analyst once said: “The Stone Age didn’t end for lack of stones, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” And now the oil age is winding down, many in Alaska can’t seem to grasp this fact.
LNG Canada Conduit Coastal GasLink, Other BC Energy Projects Temper Labor Force on Covid Outbreak - Construction schedules are under review in British Columbia (BC) for its entry into the global natural gas export market as a result of labor force limits that provincial public health authorities adopted to counter the impacts from the pandemic. “Long-term impacts to the overall schedule continue to be assessed,” said TC Energy Corp. Vice President Tracy Robinson. Robinson also is president of the Coastal GasLink (CGL) supply pipeline underway across the province that would move gas to the Royal Dutch Shell plc-led liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project, LNG Canada. CGL initially would transport more than 1.7 Bcf/d from the Montney, Horn River and Cordova basins in the Dawson Creek area. At the northern Pacific coast terminal construction in Kitimat, LNG Canada construction manager Vince Kenny and JGC I Fluor JV director Berni Molz said a staged work plan is being devised to comply with the provincial pandemic control order. “As work at site progresses with a reduced workforce, our focus will be on environmentally sensitive, regulatory required, and time-sensitive work scopes,” said Kenny and Molz. “We remain committed to delivering first cargo by the middle of this decade.” Work plans are also being crafted for BC’s approval at Coastal GasLink, Robinson said. “In the immediate term there will be significant impacts to our ability to ramp up our workforce and progress project construction.” The construction labor limits, ordered at the end of 2020, followed Covid-19 outbreaks in December across industrial activity areas served by BC’s Northern Health Area. The directive affects not only activity at CGL and LNG Canada. LNG Canada last March had reduced its workforce by half as the pandemic began spreading across North America. Three other big energy construction projects included in the BC directive are BC Hydro’s Site C Dam near Fort St. John, the Trans Mountain Pipeline oil supply expansion, and the Rio Tinto Kemano power plant to serve a Kitimat aluminum smelter. The rules allowed this year’s planned CGL construction labor force to start at 400 workers in early January and grow in stages to 1,223 as of February. The LNG Canada quota started at 512, increased to 1,162 as of next week (Jan. 20), and is open to grow later. Although the Trans Mountain project has to adapt to similar public health restrictions, the oil pipeline’s sponsors have informed the Canada Energy Regulator that its BC construction schedule has not changed. No worker quotas have been ordered on the expansion project’s Alberta legs.
Big Panama with a Purple Hat Band - Propane Price Squeeze, Panama Canal Rules Fluster Market - It’s been a chaotic start to the new year for propane. In the past 12 days, the Mont Belvieu price is up over 15%, closing on Tuesday at 87 cents/gallon — the highest since October 2018. The usual culprit of winter weather has something to do with it, but not just in North America. Over the past couple of weeks, frigid temperatures in Asia, along with supply cutbacks from the Saudis, have supported U.S. propane exports to those markets, further tightening the U.S. supply/demand balance. But as is often the case these days, the market has another complicating factor. Delays transiting the Panama Canal have stacked up VLGCs — the vessels carrying U.S. propane to Asia — on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the waterway, pushing up charter rates to levels not seen in years. And on top of that, new transit-scheduling rules from the Panama Canal Authority will shove VLGCs to the back of the line, potentially making it even more difficult to get through the canal without significant delays. Today, we’ll explore these developments and what they may portend for the remaining weeks of winter.As we blogged about in November and December (Now You See It), the possibility for a propane price squeeze has been coming at us for several weeks. Even though the U.S. entered the propane winter season with healthy inventories, exports have been running at all-time highs and stocks have been declining rapidly. We were concerned that average days-supply, when calculated using both domestic demand and exports, had dropped to a five-year low, and that the market could get very tight, warning that “the wild ride for propane prices seen in the fourth quarter could get wilder still.”And it has. In Mont Belvieu, as mentioned above, the price of propane blasted into the stratosphere during the first few days of the New Year, reflecting not only cold weather in the U.S., but skyrocketing prices in Asia due not only to record- or near-record-low temperatures in Japan, South Korea, and northeastern China, but also to shipping and global supply issues. We’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, let’s consider how propane prices have behaved so far in 2021.
EXCLUSIVE-U.S. tells European companies they face sanctions risk on Nord Stream 2 pipeline (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department this month told European companies which it suspects are helping to build Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that they face the risk of sanctions as the outgoing Trump administration prepares a final round of punitive measures against the project, two sources said on Tuesday. “We are trying to inform companies of the risk and urge them to pull out before it’s too late,” The U.S. source said the State Department is expected to issue a report by Thursday or Friday on companies it believes are helping the Russia-to-Germany pipeline. Companies that could be in the report include ones providing insurance, helping to lay the undersea pipeline, or verify the project’s construction equipment, the source said. The companies could be at risk of U.S. sanctions under existing law if they do not stop work. Zurich Insurance Group could be listed in the report, the source said. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The $11 billion pipeline, one of Russia’s most important projects in Europe, has sparked tensions between Washington and Moscow. The Trump administration opposes Nord Stream 2, which would deprive Ukraine of lucrative transit fees, saying it would increase Russia’s economic and political leverage over Europe. The administration has also pushed exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas to Europe, a fuel that competes with pipelined gas from Russia. The Kremlin says Nord Stream 2, led by state energy company Gazprom, is a commercial project. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, also says the pipeline is simply commercial. It needs gas as it shuts coal and nuclear plants on environmental and safety concerns. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden opposed the project when he was vice president under Barack Obama. It is uncertain whether he would be willing to compromise on the project after Jan. 20 when he takes over.
NS2 Set to Finish Bulk of Work on One Line in June-- Nord Stream 2 AG plans to complete major construction work on one of two branches of the controversial Russian gas link in the first half of 2021, despite U.S. sanctions that have threatened its completion for over a year. The section of pipe could be largely finished as soon as June, as the operator of Nord Stream 2 starts some testing in Danish waters on Friday, according to a schedule seen by Bloomberg that was confirmed by people familiar with the process. Construction of the 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) gas pipeline that will deliver Russia’s natural gas to Germany was halted after U.S. sanctions in December 2019, when all but 160 kilometers of the link had been put in place. The U.S. -- which has tightened restrictions -- maintains that the gas link, owned by a unit of Gazprom PJSC, gives Moscow too much leverage over Europe. Construction of a 2.6-kilometer section in German waters resumed and was finished last month amid risks of tighter U.S. restrictions. Recovery of the already laid pipes in Danish waters will start in the second half of January and the new laying operation there will start around the same time, according to the schedule. The pipelaying vessel Fortuna is expected to complete works in Danish seas by the middle of the last week of May, and then start in German waters with construction going through to June, according to the document. While the assumed speed of Fortuna’s pipelaying is 0.4 kilometers per day, completing the first line may take longer as it depends on the results of a drilling survey and weather conditions. Germany’s Maritime and Hydrographic Agency is still evaluating the request of Nord Stream 2 to move forward with works in German waters, according to a spokeswoman. The Danish and German regulators declined to comment on the schedule. Nord Stream 2 didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg requests for comments.
Big freeze exposes Asia's underlying energy crisis: Kemp - Northeast Asia has been hit by a midwinter energy crisis as an extended period of temperatures much lower than normal across the region has strained supplies of coal, gas and electricity to breaking point. China has been forced to restrict power in multiple provinces, Japan has appealed for voluntary restraint, and LNG prices have surged to record highs as generators and utilities scramble for spot cargoes. Freezing temperatures may have been the trigger for the crisis, but it reveals a deeper lack of resilience in regional energy systems caused by the rapid transition to gas for space heating and power generation. Japan has failed to restart or replace nuclear generation a decade after the Fukushima disaster, which has left the country with too little generation capacity and excessive reliance on imported gas. China’s rapid transition from coal to gas for urban heating systems has tightened gas supplies while the rapid growth in household and industrial electricity consumption is straining the electrical grid. More broadly across Asia, rapid growth, rising incomes and surging electricity demand is stretching generation systems and availability to import enough LNG at peak times. Every energy crisis has four elements: 1) pre-crisis erosion of spare production capacity and/or inventories in the face of rapidly increasingly consumption; 2) failure to appreciate the increasing risk and take timely preventive action; 3) a short-term trigger that turns potential shortage into actual shortage; and 4) panicked over-reaction when the shortages finally arrive. The energy crisis that has hit Asia in 2020/21 exhibits many of the same characteristics as crises that hit Britain in 1946/47 and the United States in 1973/74. The common thread in all three is that abnormal weather or a supply disruption aggravated an underlying energy shortage and brought the crisis to a sudden head; signs of a crisis had been evident months earlier but were not acted upon with sufficient urgency.
Venezuela Refuels Its Territorial Dispute With Guyana in Area With Massive Offshore Oil Find - Political tensions between Guyana and Venezuela are escalating in a longstanding border dispute over an area that comprises two-thirds of the smaller English-speaking South American country. The area in question is the resource-rich Essequibo province, where energy giant ExxonMobil began oil exploration in 2008. The company recently discovered significant oil and gas reserves in Guyana, placing the country on the threshold of an economic boon.On January 9, Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro announced that he would “reconquer” the province, which is situated to the west of Guyana's Essequibo River. While the area's riches include gold, diamonds and timber, the focus of Venezuela's claim is offshore—the location of ExxonMobil's massive Liza oil field, which the company estimates will produce approximately 120,000 barrels of oil per day. In its project overview, ExxonMobil describes the area as part of the Stabroek Block, calling it “the first significant oil find offshore Guyana.”The discovery of Guyana's oil and gas resources has made the country the newest kid on the block in the global energy industry, whereas Venezuela is a well-established player. Despite the fact that Venezuela enjoys the largest oil reserves in the world, with more than 300 billion barrels, the nation has been teetering on the brink of socio-economic collapse for the past several years. The crisis grew deeper in 2017, after the country's Supreme Court of Justice nullified its National Assembly.In 2019, President Maduro ordered that charges of treason be slapped on opposition leader Juan Guaidó for allegedly agreeing to forego Venezuela's claim to the Essequibo province. The renewed push from Venezuela follows the inauguration, on January 5 this year, of a pro-Maduro National Assembly, the legitimacy of which is being questioned by the opposition.Meanwhile, Guyana's president Irfaan Ali called Maduro's claim “a legal nullity,” On the heels of joint United States/Guyana coast guard exercises on January 8, Admiral Craig Faller, Commander of the US Southern Command, arrived in Guyana on January 11 for a three-day visit—a signal that the outgoing Trump administration's interest is firmly aligned with Guyana's.
Exxon’s Mega Oil Finds In Guyana Are Just The Beginning - Like many global oil majors ExxonMobil is under considerable pressure because of the significant fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, sharply weaker oil prices and the threat of peak oil demand. There are growing fears that Exxon, because of its tremendous debt burden, is a zombie company. These are generally companies that are not generating sufficient operating income to cover its interest expenses. While Exxon is struggling because of the prolonged slump in oil prices reporting a $2.4 billion loss for the first nine months of 2020 and deteriorating cashflow it is not yet a zombie company. The global oil supermajor has several levers at its disposal to boost profitability and cash flow, key being the improved outlook for oil prices along with Exxon’s globally diversified portfolio of quality energy assets. In response to sharply weaker oil prices and the need to boost profitability Exxon announced during November 2020 that it intended to prioritize capital spending for high value assets, key among them being its operations in the Guyana-Suriname Basin located in offshore South America. Exxon made its first Guyana oil discovery in the offshore Stabroek Block during May 2015. By December 2019, the integrated energy major had commenced production at the Liza oilfield with the capacity to pump 120,000 barrels daily. During September 2020, Exxon made its 18th oil discovery in the Stabroek Block and upgraded its estimate of recoverable oil resources to more than 8 billion barrels. That month Exxon announced it will proceed with developing the Payara oilfield, in the Stabroek Block, which will come on-line in 2024 possessing the capacity to pump 220,000 barrels daily. By December 2020 Exxon had achieved its production goal for the Liza field and the company anticipates producing more than 750,000 barrels daily from the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block by 2026. This is a highly profitable asset for the integrated oil major, even with weaker oil prices, because of its particularly low breakeven costs. According to partner Hess, which has a 30% interest in the block alongside Exxon’s 45% and CNOOC's 25%, the Liza oilfield is pumping crude oil at a breakeven price of $35 per barrel, and this will fall further. Hess claims that the breakeven price for the second FPSO to be deployed, Liza Unity which is scheduled to commence operations in 2022, will pump crude at an even lower breakeven price of around $25 per barrel. With an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content, the crude oil produced from the Liza field is relatively easily and cost effectively refined into high quality low sulfur content fuels. That will ensure that it does not sell at a significant discount to the international Brent price benchmark.
Total Makes Significant Oil Find -Total has announced that it and Apache Corporation (Nasdaq: APA) have made a “significant” new oil and gas discovery at the Keskesi East-1 well in Block 58 off the coast of Suriname. The well was drilled at a water depth of about 2,380 feet and was said to have encountered a total of 206 feet of hydrocarbons, comprising 190 feet net of black oil, volatile oil, and gas pay in good quality Campano-Maastrichtian reservoirs, and 16 feet of net volatile oil pay in Santonian reservoirs. Drilling is still ongoing for deeper Neocomian aged targets, Total revealed. The company’s latest find follows previous discoveries at Maka Central, announced in January last year, Sapakara West, announced in April last year, and Kwaskwasi, announced in July last year, Total highlighted. “We are delighted to announce this new discovery, which confirms this first exploration campaign as a full success and adds to the proven resource base” Kevin McLachlan, the senior vice president of exploration at Total, said in a company statement. Pursuant to the terms of its joint venture agreement, Apache transferred operatorship of Block 58 to Total S.A. on Jan. 1, 2021. Back in December 2019, Total announced that it had signed an agreement with Apache to acquire a 50 percent working interest and operatorship in the “highly prospective Block 58 offshore Suriname”. In addition to its discoveries offshore Suriname, Total has also made notable finds in other areas of the globe recently. At the end of October last year, for example, the company announced a significant gas condensate discovery on the Luiperd prospect, which is located on Block 11B/12B in the Outeniqua Basin off the southern coast of South Africa. Total also made a gas discovery with the Bashrush well on the North El Hammad license in July 2020 and a gas and condensate discovery in the North Sea in March 2020
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - A potential high upside opportunity in the oil and gas sector is unfolding that offers one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles this industry has seen in quite a while.This opportunity is with a small oil explorer sitting on a supermajor-sized oil and gas basin...and yet the company is still currently flying very much under Wall Street’s radar. Reconnaissance Energy Africa is a small $300+ million company that has secured petroleum licenses for an entire sedimentary basin in Namibia and Botswana...two extremely resource-friendly countries with very low royalties fees.This basin – as deep as the Permian – could prove to be one of the world’s last-ever giant onshore oil discoveries. And as a new basin, the potential is likely for Conventional Oil and Gas. No Fracking, normal production profiles, low water requirements which means low cost per barrel.And Recon Africa has secured the petroleum licensing rights to the entire basin.With one of the world’s largest onshore, undeveloped hydrocarbon basins – whose potential has been analyzed and acknowledged by some of the industry’s most sought-after experts – the oil that is hoped to be discovered by Recon Africa could ultimately prove to be worth tens of billions.This isn’t an investment with simply ordinary profit potential. We’re talking about a true “lottery ticket” – potentially the largest oil discovery in the last 20 to 30 years. They just have to make that big discovery. And, again, one small-cap company has secured the rights to all of it.
Nigeria's Forcados crude exports on force majeure due to pipeline closure: Shell -— Loadings of Nigeria's key export grade Forcados are on force majeure due to the shutdown of the Trans Forcados pipeline, terminal operator Shell said late Jan. 14. The force majeure took effect from 1000 local time (0900 GMT) on Jan. 14, a Shell spokesperson said. A representative at Heritage said the Trans Forcados pipeline had initially shut down for "maintenance services" but "community disturbances" had disrupted the exercise. The pipeline therefore remained shut for longer than scheduled, leading to Shell declaring force majeure, the source said. Forcados is a gasoil-rich sweet crude blend and is one of Nigeria's top export grades. Output has averaged around 250,000 b/d over recent months. Nigerian oil output has fallen sharply in the past six months as it has come under pressure to adhere to its OPEC+ cut obligations. Some of the country's key grades have had faced outages. Exports of Qua Iboe are also currently on force majeure due to production issues triggered by a fire at the Qua Iboe terminal in mid-December. Exports of Brass River were on force majeure from late November to mid-December after a sabotage attack on an oil and gas pipeline. Nigeria's crude and condensate production slumped to around 1.66 million b/d in 2020 from 2.04 million b/d in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts estimates. This was its lowest annual output figure since 2016 when militancy in the Niger Delta pushed output to as low as 1.60 million b/d. Last week, a coalition of former oil rebels in the Niger Delta, now known as the Reformed Niger Delta Avengers, threatened to resume attacks on oil installations in the country's main oil producing region. A presidential amnesty program for militants to maintain peace in the Niger Delta remains in place but there are concerns that militancy might be picking up again.
LNG-Asian spot prices rise to record high = (Reuters) - Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) jumped nearly 50% this week to a record high, based on available data going back to 2009, as logistical issues disrupt supply to the world’s top consuming region. The average LNG price for February delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS is estimated to be around $21.45 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), according to pricing agency S&P Global Platts, up 47% from the previous week ($14.60). The price is a record high since Platts started assessing the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) in Feb. 2009, which combines deals from some of the world’s biggest consumers and became the reference price for spot deals. Spot Asian LNG prices led the global energy complex last year, gaining more than 140% on booming demand and outages in key suppliers. The rally this week - eight months after the JKM fell to an all-time low of $1.82/mmBtu - partially results from strong demand for heating during a colder-than-average winter and a shortage of supply in key producing countries such as Malaysia. Japanese power generators are reducing run rates on their gas plants as they compete with LNG buyers across northern Asia. Demand is also expected to grow in China. In addition, there have been logistical constraints in bringing supply from the United States and Europe to the Pacific.
Winter LNG Boom Means Most Expensive Cargo Ships in History - An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers has made them the most expensive ships ever hired to ferry commodities. Spot rates have more than tripled in the past month, with BP Plc last week paying $350,000 a day to charter an LNG tanker to pick up a cargo from the U.S. The previous high for any kind of commodity carrier was set in late 2019 when a crude supertanker was booked for daily earnings of $308,000, according to data compiled by Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s biggest shipbroker. Bullish factors have struck the LNG shipping market: robust Asian spot gas demand in a cold winter, record-high exports from U.S. projects and -- perhaps most importantly -- delays to traverse the Panama Canal. Vessels have been forced to take longer routes to Asia, increasing transport time and significantly curbing the amount of available vessels in the Atlantic. “These are historically high levels,” said Per Christian Fett, global head of LNG at shipbroker Fearnleys A/S. “We are getting a lot of requirement where we really struggle to find a suitable vessel.” Spot LNG tanker rates in the Atlantic basin rose to a record $322,500 a day on Friday, up $99,000 from Jan. 5, according to Spark Commodities, which takes assessments from LNG shipbrokers. Meanwhile, the Pacific spot tanker rates increased to $221,750 a day, according to Spark. The high in daily earnings recorded by Clarkson Research is for commodity-carrying vessels, not container ships that transport finished goods. The same factors have pused prices for prompt cargoes to records. Japan-Korea Marker, the regional benchmark, rose almost 32% to $28.221 per million British thermal units on Monday, according to S&P Global Platts.
Trucked LNG Prices Spiked in China as Cold Gripped Region in December, Says Wood Mackenzie - Cold weather and a scramble to secure natural gas supplies in Asia are impacting more than only power generators, as spot prices for trucked liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China skyrocketed last month, according to Wood Mackenzie. The consultancy said spot prices in the LNG transport space nearly doubled in only three weeks in the Hebei, southern Jiangsu and southern Guangdong regions. According to delivered price indices, trucked LNG peaked at $28.00/MMBtu on Dec. 21 in the Hebei and Jiangsu regions. Prices then dropped sharply and increased with another cold snap in late December, Wood Mackenzie said. China has worked to increase domestic natural gas production and implement more flexibility on the demand side following shortages in recent years, establishing seasonal pricing, winter gas contracts and interruptible demand, Wood Mackenzie added. The national oil companies also said heading into the winter that the country would be well stocked with natural gas supplies, but a perfect storm in Asia was building starting in late November, leaving the gas market stretched. “The price spike came as a huge surprise to market participants,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Miaoru Huang. “Before winter started, consensus was that there would be a well supplied market with subdued trucked LNG prices, as was the case for most of 2020. As a result, trucked LNG supply had been tightened to make room for piped gas in the current winter season.” Winter gas demand has increased due to a strong economic recovery following the outbreak of Covid-19 in China. Continuing coal-to-gas switching among residential users and extremely cold weather this winter, where temperatures have dropped to some of their lowest in decades, also have contributed to the rise. Finally, logistical issues contributed to the spike as roads were frozen and an import terminal in southern China was knocked offline until late December after a fire. Wood Mackenzie said LNG makes up less than 20% of China’s gas demand each year. However, the firm said prices are highly sensitive to market balance, especially during the winter.
China's Bohai Bay energy terminals on alert as sea ice slows ships (Reuters) - Chinese ports and marine safety authorities are on high alert as an expansion of sea ice makes it tougher for ships to berth and discharge at key energy product import terminals along the coast of northern Bohai Bay. A cold wave sweeping the northern hemisphere has plunged temperatures across China to their lowest in decades, boosting demand for power and fuel to historic highs in the world’s largest energy consumer. “The sea ice situation is more severe this year than the same period in previous years,” said Wang Jun, a professor specialising in transport issues at Dalian Maritime University. “It could impede sailing and docking for vessels, no matter how big they are.” Weather officials warned against severe frost this week in the region, with sea ice stretching 45 to 55 nautical miles at Liaodong Bay and 10 to 20 nautical miles at Bohai Bay, close to levels that could prompt temporary bans on shipping. Last weekend, the marine safety bureau in northern Hebei sent several tugboats to the aid of vessels, such as LNG tanker Clean Planet and coal bulk tanker Agia Eirini Force, trapped in sea ice that was 1 meter (3 ft) thick, to help bring them to Caofeidian and Huanghua ports, state television said. The Agia Eirini Force is seen leaving China on Tuesday but Clean Planet’s latest location has not been updated, shipping data on Refinitiv Eikon showed. Marine authorities and ports in Tianjin, Hebei and Liaoning province are closely monitoring weather conditions and sending drones and ice-breaking tugs to clear the fairway for expected vessels, they said.
Goldman Flips On NatGas, Warns Of Bullish "Perfect Storm" - Goldman Sachs has flipped on their bearish natural gas stance to a bullish one. Goldman's Samantha Dart's reasoning behind the view shift is due to a combination of factors including "supply disruptions, shipping delays, and strong LNG demand, supported by heavy nuclear maintenance in Japan and a cold start of the year in NE Asia, have significantly tightened the LNG market." Prices of the supercooled fuel in especially Asia have reached astronomic heights in recent days. The most critical LNG markets are in Asia and Europe, which comes as a polar vortex split that has dumped Arctic air in both regions, boosting natgas prices. Goldman points out LNG Asian benchmark JKM has jumped to a fresh all-time high of $32/mmBtu today as the "market struggle to ration demand while supply takes weeks to move incremental Atlantic Basin supply into Asia." While LNG prices are soaring in Asia, cold weather in Europe has led to the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) physical short-term gas and gas futures contract to soar 29% higher to $9.43/mmBtu in the last two days. Goldman suggests that "even deeper-than-expected drop in NW European LNG deliveries, we now see European balances even tighter." Colder-than-average temperatures have provided significant support for European natgas demand. "TTF price forecasts skewed to the upside," Goldman said, adding that it's due to "weather-driven tightness realized thus far." We see risks to our revised TTF price forecasts skewed to the upside as, given the LNG and weather-driven tightness realized thus far, we believe that even a warm turn to the weather would not be enough to take this year's storage path towards a capacity breach. This effectively eliminates the risk that TTF may need to sell off this winter to once again close the US LNG export arb. Hence, with warm weather risks less relevant, we update our weather scenario analysis to focus on colder-than-average scenarios only. Importantly, our previous iteration of this analysis had already shown the explosive potential for TTF prices. -Goldman Colder weather in Europe has also resulted in Spanish natgas prices hitting a record high.
Perfect Storm Driving Meteoric Rise in Asian LNG Prices Could Happen Again - On the supply side, you’ve had a series of global supply outages rolling on since late summer in Australia, Malaysia, Qatar, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Norway. Generally, the supply picture has been underperforming relative to historic levels, and that has basically increased northeast Asia’s call on Atlantic Basin cargoes coming out of the United States and the European market. Those are some of the more expensive supplies for the Asian market, which has been driving prices up. There’s also been growth in Asian demand as the region has handled the pandemic better than countries in the West, which has left economic activity less disrupted. There’s also been very intense cold, which has really been driving things up in the last few weeks. We have been seeing this particularly acutely in Japan in recent days. In the meantime, China has been building up coal-to-gas switching, adding millions and millions of households that have now switched onto the gas market. A lot of the cargoes we’ve seen taken out of the European market have supplied the Chinese market in particular. The freight picture is extremely tight right now, with a recent record rate to charter an LNG vessel of $350,000/day. Last summer, we were around $30,000-40,000/day to charter a vessel. You’re really having to pay through the nose right now to convince another company to sublet you their vessel. There has been a big increase among portfolio players and aggregators buying up shipping capacity, so there’s not that much left over in the spot market when things are very tight. There are people trying to get spot vessels to close this arbitrage to make reloads from Europe to Asia, but they’re having to pay to do so. When you have U.S. cargoes going across the Atlantic to Europe, you don’t need that many vessels to deliver a certain amount of LNG, but when those vessels are going to Asia, you need about double the shipping tonnage. When a large proportion of U.S. LNG is going to Asia, it’s going via the Panama Canal and capacity to get through the waterway is being maxed out. There has been an increase in wait times outside of the Panama Canal of up to 10 days, which then adds to the shipping costs and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) has to go even higher to attract those cargoes. The cargoes are also bypassing delays at the Panama Canal by going around the Cape of Good Hope, the longest possible way U.S. cargoes can get to northeast Asia. And as a final recourse, that hasn’t been enough to satisfy northeast Asian demand. The market is now unlocking European reloads to go to Asia, which is another very long shipping route. In order for the JKM to price on those deliveries from Europe to northeast Asia, buyers are having to pay a substantial shipping cost. We are so tight right now at the end of January, start of February — and it takes about a month to get a cargo out of the Atlantic Basin — that it is virtually impossible to get a cargo on short enough notice to close the arbitrage. You can only really get a cargo into northeast Asia from the Atlantic Basin by the second half of February into March. The record prices we’re seeing amid this cold snap really represent an inability to get a marginal cargo and a real scramble to convince someone else in northeast Asia to not take delivery of their cargo, but to give it to someone shorter on supply.
Goldman Discovers An Unexpected Source Of Demand For 1 Million b/d Of Oil - Having recently turned even more bullish on the oil market, bringing forward up its year-end $65 Brent price target to the summer on Monday, overnight Goldman's commodity team turned even more bullish on oil, "discovering" an unexpected source of oil demand in the near term, which could lead to even higher oil prices in coming days. Specifically, according to to Goldman's Damien Courvalin, global oil demand will be boosted by at least 1 million b/d in the coming weeks as cold weather spurs the use of diesel for power generation.As Courvalin explains, frigid temperatures in Asia and Europe in the face of LNG supply issues have led to a surge in local gas prices. Specifically, the record-high JKM prices we discussed yesterday..... have moved well past diesel substitution in power generation although the rally in TTF this week is still short of fuel oil parity. Goldman believes this substitution-induced price surge could lead to at least a 1 mm b/d boost to global oil demand in coming weeks, with an upside potential of 1.5mb/d (especially if TTF prices rally past $10/mmBtu).Goldman based this estimate on the precedent of the 2017 cold winter, grossing up OECD data to the rest of Asia. As the bank explains, "a simple top-down weather model on Asia and EU winter heating demand confirms that the recent cold wave would boost demand by 1mb/d, even before the impact of additional fuel substitution under such extreme price dislocations (with working-from-home dynamics pointing to a potentially even stronger demand impact)." The steady decline in oil burn power generation capacity in recent years ultimately limits the magnitude of this substitution, likely explaining the magnitude of the JKM gas rally which is now solving for end-demand destruction in the LNG trucking and industrial sectors. This in turn will provide additional support to on-road diesel and LPG demand, according to Courvalin.To be sure, such demand support will be transient, with higher expected LNG arrivals in coming weeks and milder Asian weather forecasts. That said, assuming even a mere three-week impact, this transitory demand spike "will nonetheless help offset half of the c.1.5 mb/d decline in global transportation demand" that Goldman expects in January due to spreading lockdowns (with the split polar vortex potentially leading to additional cold spells).
OPEC maintains 2021 oil demand growth forecast, warns outlook clouded by pandemic fears — Oil producer group OPEC on Thursday kept its 2021 forecast for global crude demand growth unchanged, but warned uncertainties over the impact of the coronavirus pandemic remain high. The closely watched oil market report comes as Covid cases continue to surge worldwide, with new lockdowns imposed in Europe and parts of China. In recent weeks, optimism about the mass rollout of coronavirus vaccines appears to have been tempered by the resurgent rate of virus spread. It has resulted in oil producers trying to orchestrate a delicate balancing act between supply and demand as factors including the pace of the pandemic response continue to cloud the outlook. "Uncertainties remain high going forward with the main downside risks being issues related to COVID-19 containment measures and the impact of the pandemic on consumer behavior," OPEC said Thursday. "These will also include how many countries are adapting lockdown measures, and for how long. At the same time, quicker vaccination plans and a recovery in consumer confidence provide some upside optimism." The 13-member group said it expected global oil demand in 2021 to increase by 5.9 million barrels per day year on year to average 95.9 million barrels per day. The forecast was unchanged from last month's assessment. The group said world oil demand growth in 2020 declined by 9.8 million barrels per day year on year to average 90 million barrels per day. The group noted the fall was marginally less than expected in December. OPEC said its 2021 forecasts "assume a healthy recovery in economic activities including industrial production, an improving labour market and higher vehicle sales than in 2020." "Accordingly, oil demand is anticipated to rise steadily this year supported primarily by transportation and industrial fuels," the group said. OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, an alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, cut oil production by a record amount in 2020 in an effort to support prices, as strict public health measures worldwide coincided with a fuel demand shock. OPEC+ initially agreed to cut output by 9.7 million bpd, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually scaling back further to 7.2 million from January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since said it plans to cut output by an extra 1 million barrels per day in February and March to stop inventories from building up.
Oil prices fall on renewed coronavirus concerns as China cases mount - Oil prices fell on Monday on renewed concerns about global fuel demand amid strict coronavirus lockdowns in Europe and new movement restrictions in China, the world's second-largest oil user, after a jump in cases there. Brent crude oil futures fell 46 cents, or 0.84%, to $55.52 a barrel after earlier climbing to $56.39, its highest since Feb. 25, 2020. Brent rose in the previous four sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $52.03 a barrel. WTI rose to its highest in nearly a year on Friday. "Covid hot spots flaring again in Asia, with 11 million people (in) lockdowns in China Hebei province... along with a touch of FED policy uncertainty has triggered some profit taking out of the gates this morning," Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, said in a note on Monday. Mainland China saw its biggest daily increase in COVID-19 cases in more than five months, the country's national health authority said on Monday, as new infections in Hebei province, which surrounds the capital Beijing, continued to rise. Shijiazhuang, Hebei's capital and epicentre of the new outbreak in the province, is in lockdown with people and vehicles barred from leaving the city as authorities move to curb the spread of the disease. Most of Europe is now under the strictest restrictions, according to the Oxford stringency index, which assesses indicators such as travel bans and the closure of schools and workplaces. Still, the oil price losses were curbed by plans for U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to announce trillions of dollars in new coronavirus relief bills this week, much of which will be paid for by increased borrowing. Crude prices remained supported by Saudi Arabia's pledge last week for a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March as part of a deal under which most OPEC+ producers will hold production steady during new lockdowns. "Oil is still pricing in a great deal of optimism linked to the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines," Innes said. "Demand will always improve as the vaccines roll out, and the supply side is under control thanks to OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia's continued efforts."
Oil erases loss to end near unchanged | Morningstar - Oil futures erased an early loss, with the U.S. benchmark eking out a tiny gain to close at a 10-month high as pressure from a rising dollar and worries over a COVID-related hit to demand was overshadowed by optimism over prospects for near-term exports.West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery rose a penny to finish at $52.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close for a front-month contract since Feb. 21. March Brent crude , the global benchmark, dropped 33 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $55.66 a barrel a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.WTI's outperformance of Brent -- the March WTI contract -- also rose by a cent to close at $51.51 a barrel-- comes as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates all followed Saudi Arabia's lead and raised prices to Asia customers in recent days, noted Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, in a note."The move opens the door for U.S. producers to fill the void and export more barrels to Asia," he said, noting that Bloomberg reported U.S. Gulf crude exports to Asia rose by 33.8 million barrels in December from 28.6 million barrels in November.Brent, meanwhile, felt pressure on renewed concerns about rising coronavirus cases around the world, resulting in tighter lockdowns, as well as a bounce for the U.S. dollar.Oil surged last week, with both Brent and WTI trading at levels last seen in early February, boosted in part by Saudi Arabia's surprise decision to cut production by 1 million barrels a day in February and March. The dollar was higher versus major rivals. lifting the ICE U.S. Dollar Index , a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, by 0.4%. The index has fallen sharply since last March and hit a more than 2 1/2-year low last week before beginning to push higher as yields on Treasury notes rose last week.Commodities and the dollar often show an inverse relationship. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback less expensive to users of other currencies, while a stronger dollar makes them more expensive. Meanwhile, the U.S. saw at least 208,338 new cases of COVID-19 reported on Sunday, according to a New York Times tracker, and counted at least 1,777 deaths, numbers that may be underreported due to lower weekend staffing. On Friday, the U.S. set a single-day record of more than 300,000 new cases. In the past week, the U.S. has averaged 254,866 cases a day, numbers that experts had warned would materialize if Americans traveled in large numbers during the recent holiday season. February natural-gas futures rose 4.7 cents, or 1.7%, to end at $2.747 per million British thermal units. February gasoline declined 2.15 cents, or 1.4%, finishing at $1.5208 a gallon. February heating oil shed 0.6 cent, or 0.4%, to close at $1.5735.
Oil prices sapped by rising virus cases; anticipated drop in U.S. inventory stems losses - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors remained concerned about climbing coronavirus cases globally, but expectations of a drawdown in crude oil inventory in the United States for a fifth straight week kept losses in check. Brent crude oil futures slipped 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $55.56 a barrel by 0500 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.17 a barrel. Worldwide coronavirus cases surpassed 90 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as nations around the globe scramble to procure vaccines and continue to extend or reinstate lockdowns to fight new coronavirus variants. In Asia, Japan is planning to widen a state of emergency beyond its capital Tokyo to stem the spread of Covid-19 while China is implementing movement curbs in some parts of the country. "I think the market will be rapid to conclude that yesterday's modest pullback in price, provided the virus spread in China remains contained, was but a blip on the radar screen," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi in a note, citing the prospect of increased economic stimulus in the United States. President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20 with his Democratic party in control of both Houses, has promised "trillions" in extra pandemic-relief spending. U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell for a fifth straight week, while refined products inventories were seen up last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from industry group American Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, on Wednesday. Brent could rise to $65 per barrel by summer 2021, Goldman Sachs said, driven by Saudi cuts and the implications of a shift in power to the Democrats in the United States. The Wall Street investment bank had previously predicted oil would hit $65 by year-end.
Light Crude Ends Session Above $53 | Rigzone -- Oil rose to a fresh 10-month high with a weaker dollar providing support to a market already boosted by expectations for tightening global supply. Futures climbed 1.8% in New York on Tuesday as a declining dollar raised the appeal for commodities priced in the currency. The six-day rally, the longest stretch of gains since May, has also been aided by Saudi Arabia’s pledge last week to slice output in the coming months. “It’s been a dynamic bull trend and the market continues to anticipate inventories are going to be drawn pretty sharply as a result of the Saudi production cutbacks,” “But, at some point, when you get into these bull moves, the market tends to overshoot where the equilibrium price is.” Oil has been on a tear after OPEC and its allies agreed to keep curbing their output, building on a rally at the end of last year on Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs. Yet, the return to normal for both crude and fuel demand remains some ways off, as the world’s vaccination effort is still in the early stages. Global crude consumption will likely stagnate until May, and both vaccine production and vaccination rates would need to be ramped up “massively” if the world is to transition to normality this year, consultant FGE wrote in a report. Meanwhile, gasoline demand next year won’t reach pre-pandemic levels, though diesel should eclipse its 2019 performance, the U.S. Energy Information Administration wrote in a monthly report. Yet, Brent’s rally faces “formidable resistance” from $58 a barrel to $60 a barrel, Bank of America Global Research said in a report. Technical indicators like the 14-day Relative Strength Index signal both oil benchmarks are overbought. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 96 cents to settle at $53.21 a barrel. Brent for March settlement gained 92 cents to end the session at $56.58 a barrel. Oil is also rallying along its forward curve after Saudi Arabia’s announcement to unilaterally cut production. Brent’s nearest contract has grown its premium to the following month to 9 cents a barrel, compared to a discount of 7 cents at the start of last week. The closely-watched spread between its closest two December contracts has also strengthened, signaling growing expectations for the supply and demand balance to improve. “Getting us to April with these cuts puts us at a point where, one, seasonal demand typically starts to pick up and, two, we’ll have had a couple of months of vaccinations under our belt as a global economy, so maybe getting past the worst of the shutdowns,”. “That’s certainly changing the tenor of the market to one of tightness compared to ample supply.”
Oil Algos Confused By Crude Draw, Major Product Build, Weak Demand -After ramping notably overnight (after API reported a big surprise crude draw), WTI tumbled back below $53 this morning as the dollar strengthened, and as Bloomberg reports, even with Saudi Arabia’s pledge to unilaterally cut oil output, the supply picture remains precarious. Oil inventories for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development are 160 million barrels above the five-year average, according to OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo. API:
- Crude -5.821mm (-1.9mm exp)
- Cushing -232k
- Gasoline +1.876mm
- Distillates +4.433mm
DOE
- Crude -3.248mm (-2.65mm exp)
- Cushing -1.975mm
- Gasoline +4.395mm
- Distillates +4.786mm
Crude stocks fell slightly more than expected last week (though less than API reported), but product stocks saw major builds... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Gasoline Demand is sliding once again, as is its seasonal tendency, but this is significantly worse than last year... With oil prices back above $50, and rig counts on the rise, US production was expected to begin rising (after stagnating at 11mm b/d for a month) but it still has not...
Oil prices extend gains after U.S. inventory drop -- Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with U.S. crude gaining for a seventh day, after an industry report showed a further drop in inventories and investors shrugged off worsening developments in the pandemic. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 40 cents, or 0.8%, at $53.61 a barrel by 0128 GMT after gaining nearly 2% on Tuesday. Brent crude was up 47 cents, or 0.8%, at $57.05, having risen 1.7% in the previous session. Both benchmarks are trading at the highest since February, before the coronavirus outbreak in China began spreading across the world and billions of people went into lockdowns to prevent a pandemic that is now in a deadlier second wave. Prices are shrugging off the latest developments in Europe and the United States where death tolls and new infections keep rising, with the focus on rollouts of vaccines, however patchy, but risks to the market remain. "U.S. shale producers' response to the rally in oil represents the most significant near-term supply risk for oil," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi. Falling inventories and rising oil prices are likely to tempt U.S. drillers back into the fray, especially as Saudi Arabia and other major producers cut their output, effectively ceding market share to American producers. Crude inventories in the U.S. dropped by 5.8 million barrels last week to around 484.5 million barrels, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed late on Tuesday. That was more than analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a fall of 2.3 million barrels.
Oil snaps 6-day winning streak as U.S. dollar rises, product inventories build - Oil futures ended lower in a choppy session, snapping a six-day winning streak for the U.S. benchmark, after the U.S. dollar gained ground and inventories of gasoline and distillates rose more than expected. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery fell 30 cents, or 0.6%, to $52.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI's six-day winning streak was the longest since May, according to Dow Jones Market Data. March Brent crude , the global benchmark, fell 52 cents, or 0.9%, to close at $56.06 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both benchmarks finished Tuesday at their highest since Feb. 21. "The decline came just as WTI hit its highest level in around a year, which may have contributed to some profit-taking," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Near-term risks remain for oil markets, with COVID causing huge problems in many countries which means we're likely to see more restrictions for longer." The Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, slightly less than the 3.8 million barrel drop expected by analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. It was also smaller than the 5.8 million fall said to be reported by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels last week, according to EIA, while distillate stocks rose 4.8 million barrels. The S&P Global Platts analysts had forecast a 3.2 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 2.8 million barrel rise in distillate inventories. The overall trend for supply, and oil production, "still is on a downward trajectory," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, in a note. "The oil market trend towards our near-term target of $55 is intact and while we may see a pullback from that area, this summer, prices will be much higher." The U.S. dollar was on a firmer footing Wednesday, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index , a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, up 0.3%. The dollar fell sharply in 2020 and extended losses into January, trading at levels last seen in April 2018. Commodities often show an inverse correlation to the dollar. February natural-gas futures fell 2.6 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.727 per million British thermal units. February gasoline dropped 0.42 cent, or 0.3%, to end at $1.5488 a gallon, while February heating oil rose 0.22 cent, or 0.1%, to finish at $1.5989a gallon.
Oil prices climb on Chinese data, dollar weakness - (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, boosted by a weak dollar and bullish signals from Chinese import data but pressured by renewed worries about global oil demand due to surging coronavirus cases in Europe and new lockdowns in China. Brent crude oil futures rose 36 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $56.42 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended 66 cents, or 1.3%, higher at $53.57. The U.S. dollar index slumped after U.S Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish tone, saying the U.S. central bank is not raising interest rates anytime soon. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. Raising hopes of increased oil demand was a hefty U.S. COVID-19 relief package, which President-elect Joe Biden is due to unveil on Thursday. “With energy values strengthening as the dollar weakened today, the oil market was able to advance late session in sympathy with stronger equities,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said. World stocks indexes climbed to record levels and U.S. bond yields edged higher on Thursday as investors focused on Biden’s pandemic aid proposal. “Oil specific fundamentals still appear supportive enough to push the complex into new high territory within the next couple of trading sessions,” Ritterbusch said. China’s total crude oil imports rose 7.3% in 2020, with record arrivals in the second and third quarters as refineries expanded operations and low prices encouraged stockpiling, customs data showed. Still, the world’s second-largest oil consumer reported its biggest daily jump in new COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months. Governments across Europe have announced tighter and longer coronavirus lockdowns, with vaccinations not expected to have a significant impact for the next few months. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecast for world demand unchanged, saying oil use will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day this year to 95.91 million bpd, following a record 9.75 million bpd contraction last year due to the pandemic. Oil producers face an unprecedented challenge balancing supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to COVID-19 vaccines cloud the outlook, said an official at the International Energy Agency (IEA). Saudi Arabia, for example, is throttling oil supply to some Asian buyers, refinery and trade sources told Reuters, while Russia plans to ramp up output this year, according to Russian media.
Oil Futures Gain Amid $2T Stimulus Hopes | Rigzone -- Oil rose to a new 10-month high in New York on expectations that a potential $2 trillion economic relief packaged could get Americans consuming more fuel. U.S. benchmark crude futures advanced 1.3% on Thursday. President-elect Joe Biden’s advisers recently told allies in Congress about the cost of the package, CNN reported. A weaker dollar also boosted the appeal of commodities priced in the greenback. A stimulus package will be “putting direct money into people’s pockets,” said Josh Graves, senior market strategist at RJ O’Brien & Associates LLC. “In general, it’s going to allow them to travel more and do more things,” helping support crude demand. Crude’s recent gains have stoked concern among some investors that the rally is ahead of itself. Technical indicators suggest oil is likely due for a pullback, with the global Brent benchmark on its longest run of overbought days since 2012. Rising U.S. jobless claims point to the bumpy road ahead for a true recovery in consumption. Europe’s oil demand is also off to a sluggish start to the new year as renewed lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19 limit the use of road fuels. There are also signs that physical markets are softening in Asia, with Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude at a discount to its benchmark despite continued OPEC+ cuts. “To the extent the Covid situation is continuing to push back, it’s a weight on the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “This is just a bit of a breather, given how we’ve come so far so fast.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 66 cents to settle at $53.57 a barrel. Brent for March settlement gained 36 cents to end the session at $56.42 a barrel. In Asia, China’s economic recovery gathered pace in December as exports jumped, pushing the trade surplus to a record high. At the same time, Oil imports, however, fell about 15% compared with November. While the China import data “has many traders and analysts scratching their heads,” it seems to be “more of a timing issue rather than a structural change in demand from the world’s biggest oil importer,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Nigeria unit declared a force majeure on the country’s flagship Forcados crude oil, after the grade’s pipeline was halted in the wake of leaks. Forcados is the country’s biggest crude export system, with shipments through the terminal running at rate of between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels a day.
Oil drops over 2% on China lockdowns, U.S. stimulus concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday, with both contracts posting a loss on the week as concerns about Chinese cities in lockdown due to coronavirus outbreaks tempered a rally driven by strong import data from the world’s biggest crude importer. Brent fell $1.32, or 2.3%, to settle at $55.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $1.21, or 2.3%, at $52.36 a barrel. Both benchmarks, which hit their highest in nearly a year earlier in the week, posted their first weekly declines in three weeks, with Brent down 1.6% on the week and U.S. crude down about 0.4%. While producers are facing unparalleled challenges balancing supply and demand equations with calculus involving vaccine rollouts versus lockdowns, financial contracts have been boosted by strong equities and a weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper, along with strong Chinese demand. These positives were called into question on Friday as the dollar rose and China ramped up lockdown measures. A nearly $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package in the United States unveiled by President-elect Joe Biden may increase oil demand from the world’s biggest crude consumer. Still, some analysts said the move may not be enough to stoke demand. “In terms of being able to talk about demand, Asia was the only bright spot,” . “This renewed lockdown is striking at the heart of the demand picture in Asia. It’s trouble.” Crude imports into China were up 7.3% in 2020, with record arrivals in two out of four quarters as refineries increased runs and low prices prompted stockpiling, customs data showed on Thursday. But China reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months on Friday, capping a week that has resulted in more than 28 million people under lockdown as it suffered its first coronavirus death on the mainland since May. “The COVID-19 pandemic’s spread is taking centre stage again and traders are getting increasingly worried about the long duration of European lockdown and about the new restrictions (in) China,”
Oil Holds Near 10-Month High On Optimism Over U.S. Stimulus Plan -- Oil slid by the most in three weeks as a stronger dollar and weak U.S. economic data stoked concerns over an economic rebound. Futures in New York tumbled 2.3% on Friday after a rally in oil earlier in the week pushed the benchmark into overbought territory. The U.S. dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. U.S. consumer sentiment cooled more than forecast in January and other economic data such as sluggish retail sales and producer prices also portray the obstacles still facing the country as it emerges from the pandemic. Meanwhile, President-elect Joe Biden said he will ask Congress for $1.9 trillion to fund immediate relief for the U.S. economy that has been pummeled by the pandemic. But the large price tag and inclusion of initiatives opposed by many Republicans set up the aid package for a drawn out legislative battle. “We’ve had a lot of strength in a number of different markets and now we’re getting a pullback,” Ultimately, oil markets need “driving to go up. If people have money and no place to spend it, it doesn’t make any difference.” Despite the pullback in oil futures, vaccine breakthroughs and Saudi Arabia’s pledge earlier this month to deepen output cuts are expected to support prices. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said a “nasty deficit” could emerge in the oil market later this year. Meanwhile, technical indicators had been flashing warnings signs all week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for both U.S. and global benchmark crude futures traded above 70 this week in a sign they were overbought, though both slipped under that level Friday. A “short-term pullback” is likely in store for “oil prices, given the recent loss of support from a number of key factors,” “With that said, the dips may be shallow as investor appetite for commodities appears to be increasing rapidly following the recent bullish oil calls and talk of a commodity super-cycle from some of the larger and more prominent U.S. investment banks.”
Iran Will Expel UN Inspectors If US Sanctions Aren’t Lifted -- Iranian MP Ahmad Amiribadi Farahani announced over the weekend that if the US does not lift sanctions against Iran, as required under the P5+1 nuclear deal, by February 21, the Iranian parliament is mandating the expulsion of all IAEA inspectors from the country, and will suspend the Additional Protocol.This comes on the approach of president-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, and with some expectations he’d be looking to engage Iran diplomatically, the ultimatum may be an effort to force Biden to engage early, and make a deal quickly.The US isn’t a party to the P5+1 deal at this point, but there’s been a lot of hope Biden would want to return. There has been no public announcement, and Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) claimed in October Biden would hold out for a tougher deal.Since this comment is coming from an MP and making reference to parliament’s bill to expand the nuclear program, it’s not clear this is being sent on behalf of the Rouhani government, or if it is just hardliners trying to stir things up.Rouhani is more diplomacy-minded than the hardliners, and has resisted parliament’s calls to escalate the civilian nuclear program. Nothing that’s been done has anything to do with a military dimension to the nuclear program, and despite Israeli spin, the inspectors can continue to verify nothing is being diverted outside of civilian use. Expelling the inspectors would be a huge escalation, even though it too would be reversible, and would certainly be presented by US hawks and their supporters as a provocation worth starting a war over. If Biden hasn’t made a deal by then and this expulsion happens, it could put major pressure on him to react negatively, and move away from the diplomatic track. That may be what the hardliners intend, as many of them openly scorn the idea of diplomacy in the first place.
France says Iran is building nuclear weapons capacity, urgent to revive 2015 deal (Reuters) - Iran is in the process of building up its nuclear weapons capacity and it is urgent that Tehran and Washington return to a 2015 nuclear agreement, France’s foreign minister was quoted as saying in an interview published on Saturday. Iran has been accelerating its breaches of the nuclear deal and earlier this month started pressing ahead with plans to enrich uranium to 20% fissile strength at its underground Fordow nuclear plant. That is the level Tehran achieved before striking the deal with world powers to contain its disputed nuclear ambitions. The Islamic Republic’s breaches of the nuclear agreement since President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018 and subsequently imposed sanctions on Tehran may complicate efforts by President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office on Jan. 20, to rejoin the pact. “The Trump administration chose what it called the maximum pressure campaign on Iran. The result was that this strategy only increased the risk and the threat,” Le Drian told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper. “This has to stop because Iran and - I say this clearly - is in the process of acquiring nuclear (weapons) capacity.” The agreement’s main aim was to extend the time Iran would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, if it so chose, to at least a year from roughly two to three months. It also lifted international sanctions against Tehran. Western diplomats have said Iran’s repeated breaches have already reduced the “breakout time” to well below a year. Iran denies any intent to weaponise its nuclear programme.
South Korea Seeks Qatari Help to Release Tanker-- South Korea has asked Qatar for “maximum support” to secure the release of an oil tanker seized by Iran this month. Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Jong-Kun made the appeal during a visit to Doha, the Qatari capital. He met Foreign Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Yonhap News Agency reported on Thursday. Choi traveled to Doha from Tehran after fruitless talks over the South Korean-flagged Hankuk Chemi, an oil-products tanker detained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Jan. 4. He also discussed billions of dollars of Iranian money trapped in South Korea due to U.S. sanctions. Qatar shares the world’s biggest natural gas field with Iran and has maintained close ties with the country even as other Gulf Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have backed U.S. attempts to isolate it. Relations between Tehran and Seoul have been strained since the U.S. banned countries, including major Asian customers, from buying Iranian petroleum. Iran says it has at least $7 billion from oil sales stuck in South Korea and that it needs the money to purchase goods including coronavirus vaccines. South Korea has shown a “lack of will” to release the oil funds and should avoid “politicizing” the Hankuk Chemi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday. Iran said the ship was violating marine environmental laws, something its operator has denied. Around 20 crew members are being held with the ship at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port.Chinese Cities in Lockdown as Police Warn People Not to Spread 'Rumors' — The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Tuesday placed a city of five million people in lockdown amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several locations around the country. All 4.9 million residents of Langfang city in the northern province of Hebei were ordered to stay home, as the authorities prepared to roll out a mass testing program in the city. Langfang's lockdown follows that of Shijiazhuang, provincial capital of Hebei, whose 11 million population have been under lockdown for several days. In Hebei's Xingtai city, the CCP issued a directive calling for donations from the private sector to support the healthcare industry during the pandemic. A Jan. 10 directive signed by the CCP's United Front Work Department, which mobilizes support outside of the ruling party, called on local authorities in nearby Nangong city to "levy pandemic supplies from private entrepreneurs, including single beds, mattresses, quilts, pillows, buckets, medical waste bags, and so on." An employee who answered the phone at the department confirmed the report. "Our entire supply network has been cut off, so we can't bring in supplies from elsewhere now," the employee said. "Some people can drive themselves to Xingtai ... and we coordinate to let them in, but most cars aren't being allowed into Hebei right now, and can't even get onto the highway without a pass; it's all blocked." "That's why the [truck] drivers don't want to come here."
Staggering growth of super-rich in China - According to Forbes’ Rich List of China in 2020, the total wealth of the 400 richest people in China soared from $1.29 trillion to $2.11 trillion last year—an increase overall of more than 60 percent. For those who made it to the list, almost two thirds saw an increase in their wealth. The entry criterion for last year’s Rich List was $1.55 billion, compared to the $1 billion threshold in 2019. Much of this was due to the rise and rise of share prices.Nongfu Spring, which was publicly listed in last September in Hong Kong, had a 120 percent increase in its stocks by December 17. Zhong Shanshan, the company’s founder, whose wealth rocketed from $2 billion to $69 billion, replaced Jack Ma as the richest person in China. Jack Ma only saw his wealth rise by 72 percent to reach $65.6 billion! In China’s bottled water market, Nongfu Spring now occupies all market shelves and vending machines. With its control of some of the best natural water resources in China and an aggressive marketing strategy, the company has left its rivals far behind. Its profit on each bottle sold is a huge 60 percent. Midea Group, the leading electrical appliance manufacturer in China, has also had a continuous rise in its stocks—from 56 RMB [$US8.65] at the beginning of the year to 95 RMB or an increase of nearly 70 percent. In 2016, the company bought and merged with the home appliance sector of Toshiba and an industrial robot manufacturer called KUKA, diversifying its products. Midea Group is the first Chinese home appliance company to make it into the Fortune Global 500. Its founder, He Hengjian, has continued to hold fifth place on China’s rich list. The restrictions on in-person activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic has boosted the rise of online e-commerce platforms. The share price of Pinduoduo, for example, shot up from $38 to $160. The company, which provides the means for purchasers to form or join “teams” of buyers to drive down prices, has quickly become the second largest e-commerce platform in China, ranking only after Taobao. E-commerce is closely connected with the package delivery industry. As a result, the leading delivery company in China, SF Express, saw a rise in their stock prices as well, going from 37 RMB to 90 RMB. Huang Zheng, founder of Pinduoduo, and Wang Wei, founder of SF Express, both remain in the top ten of China’s rich list.In China, Alibaba and Tencent have long become the oligarchs of China’s IT industry and their shares have continued to rise this year as well. However, very recently, Alibaba, Tencent, and SF Express were fined 500,000 RMB each by anti-monopoly agencies, or about $77,000, which amounts to little more than a slap on the wrist for these mega-corporations. Whatever the exact reasons behind the fines, these companies and their owners have retained their enormous wealth, as well as political clout.
Philippines: Anti-'drug war' priest charged with sedition - BBC News -A Catholic priest in the Philippines is set to stand trial on charges of "conspiracy to commit sedition" over an alleged plot to oust President Rodrigo Duterte. Father Flavie Villanueva is a fierce critic of the president’s "war on drugs", which since July 2016 has seen thousands killed in police operations. He has been accused, alongside 10 others, of being behind a viral video series that the government says tarnished the president’s reputation. Father Flavie denies the charges.
Gruesome scene at Indonesian plane crash site - – Divers pulled body parts, wreckage and clothing from waters off Indonesia’s capital Jakarta on Sunday, as the military located a signal it hoped would lead to the wreckage of a jet that crashed with 62 people on board. The Sriwijaya Air Boeing 737-500 plunged into a steep dive about four minutes after it left Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Jakarta on Saturday afternoon. A military vessel “has found the signal from (Sriwijaya Air) SJ182” and divers had recovered parts of the plane from around 23 meters (75 feet) below the water’s surface, the transport ministry said Sunday, citing Indonesia’s military chief, Hadi Tjahjanto. The ministry did not specify if the signal was from the downed plane’s black box. The frantic search appeared to offer no hope of finding any survivors. “Several body parts have been found and they’ve been taken to the police hospital for identification,” Belongings that we think are from the passengers were also found.” A child’s pink trousers, a broken tire and wheel, life jackets and suspected wreckage from the plane were also found, according to authorities and reporters on the scene. Flight SJ182 was bound for Pontianak city on Indonesia’s section of Borneo island, about 90 minutes flying time over the Java Sea. On Saturday night, distraught relatives waited nervously for news at Pontianak Airport. The discovery of body parts and wreckage came as a flotilla of warships, helicopters and divers were deployed off the coast of the sprawling capital Sunday. Sixty-two passengers and crew were aboard the plane, all of them Indonesians, including 10 children, authorities said. The plane crashed near popular day-trip tourist islands just off the coast, authorities said. More than 300 personnel from search and rescue, the navy and the police were taking part in the search. The search-and-rescue agency earlier said poor conditions were hampering the effort, but the military later said visibility had improved and the recovery operation would continue Sunday.
Global food prices rise could spark social unrest, UN warns - December saw global food prices reach a six year high, with analysts expecting prices to continue to rise in 2021, fuelling inflation and adding to the pressure on families as hunger surges throughout the world. This is particularly acute for the world’s poorest countries that are teetering on the brink of debt default, have no money to buy or subsidise food and little or no social safety net to cushion the blow to family budgets. The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) food price index has risen 18 percent since May as dry weather has affected crops around the world; conflicts and the pandemic have impeded food production and distribution; governments stockpile supplies; hedge funds and other speculators have bought food commodities and demand rises with the reopening of the economy. Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the FAO, said, “Food inflation is a reality. While people have lost income, they are as we speak going through a tremendously difficult hardship… The real impact is the access to food. People have lost their income. There are a lot of unhappy people and this is a recipe for social unrest.” While prices have not yet reached the levels that in 2008 led to people dying of starvation and food riots, brought down the Haitian government and contributed to the 2011 Arab Spring, the upward trend in prices for basic food staples has potentially revolutionary implications amid a growing social, economic and political crisis of global dimensions. Abbassian said, “If [people] realise the vaccine won’t solve the problems in the near term and they don’t have food, then things could get out of control. Although I still doubt we will hit those [previous] peaks, we will see volatility in the coming year.” The world grows enough food to feed more than 9 billion people, far more than the current population of 7.6 billion, although up to one third is wasted through harvesting, distribution, storage and transportation. The threat comes from the “free market” and rising prices. Soya beans, crucial for livestock feed and vegetable oil, are trading at $13 a bushel and palm oil, used in about half of all supermarket goods, is seeing its highest price in nearly 10 years. Corn is at a six-year high, while wheat is trading at more than $6 a bushel, due to dry weather in Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, and restrictions on grain export to limit domestic food inflation. Grain prices have risen in South America where Brazil and Argentina have been hit by hot dry weather, prompting the Argentinian government to suspend corn-export licences.Rice prices have also risen after south east Asian countries threatened to limit exports as the pandemic hit production, while congestion at ports and a shortage of shipping containers as many remain stranded in the wake of the pandemic have caused some shipping durations to double and freight prices to soar. Such is the anarchy of the market and the indifference of the financial oligarchs to anything other than their own interests that governments that have been able to do so have been shoring up their food supplies, setting in motion a ferocious national competition, adding to demand and fuelling price rises.
“The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Financial Markets” - The eruption of the Covid-19 pandemic early last year was a triple whammy for the emerging market economies (EMEs): it directly threatened their public health and economic activity; it pushed the global economy into recession and undercut their export markets; and it triggered a spike in global financial volatility which threatened to cut off their capital flows. The financial spillovers from the turmoil last March are clearly evident in Figure 1. Risk-off swings in U.S. markets led EME currencies to depreciate, credit default swap (CDS) spreads to widen, and EME equities to follow U.S. stocks downward. As usual, EMEs with greater fiscal and financial fragility were hit hardest. Figure 2 shows the strong correlation between a measure of this vulnerability developed by Ahmed, Coulibaly, and Zlate (2017) and the rise in EMEs’ CDS spreads between mid-January and mid-March. Beginning in mid-March, advanced-economy financial markets rebounded in response to aggressive monetary easing, announcements of fiscal stimulus, and indications the pandemic might be easing. This led to improvement in EME financial markets as well. But the pandemic is not yet over, and with caseloads resurging around the world, there is a question of whether global investors might again pull back from the most strongly afflicted economies. Accordingly, my co-authors – Shaghil Ahmed, Jasper Hoek, Ben Smith, and Emre Yoldas – and I are assessing how much of the evolution of EME financial markets last year owed to spillovers from advanced-economy markets, especially the U.S., and how much to the spread of the pandemic itself. (See our Federal Reserve working paper, “The Impact of Covid-19 on Emerging Market Economies’ Financial Conditions†for more details.) We estimated panel regressions in which exchange rates, credit spreads, and equity prices in 22 emerging market economies were related to: (1) measures of U.S. financial markets (the VIX and high-yield corporate spreads); (2) the Ahmed-Coulibaly-Zlate measure of EMEs’ vulnerabilities; and (3) country-specific measures of COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and the corresponding measures taken to restrict that spread—the Oxford Stringency Index, or OSI. Table 1 presents the estimation results (updated from those in the working paper). Wider U.S. high-yield spreads were associated with a weaker EME currencies, rising CDS premiums and lower equity valuations, and such effects generally are stronger for more vulnerable EMEs (as indicated by interaction variable, US High Yield Spread x Vulnerability). Similar observations apply to the VIX index, though it seems less influential. Pandemic deaths generally are not statistically significant; the same is true of equations using pandemic cases (not shown). However, the OSI variable exerts consistent and statistically significant effects on EME financial conditions: More stringent restrictions depreciate currencies, widen CDS spreads, and depress equities.
Cash in the Time of Covid: Down But Not Out - Ever since the pandemic began, the use of cash around the world has been heavily demonized for increasing the risk of Covid-19 infection, with the result that physical money, long cast by its detractors as unhygienic and dirty, has become even dirtier in many people’s minds. In the minds of some it is too dangerous to even touch, As the World Economic Forum said in June 2020, “the (overhyped) concern that cash could help spread the virus” gave contactless cards and wallets a marketing boost, prompting “more stores to go cashless.” This, together with the huge fillip that the on-off lockdowns have provided to e-commerce, has sharply accelerated the move away from cash, a trend that began many years ago. To form an idea of just how much people are abandoning cash in favor of digital alternatives, I asked friends and family in Barcelona (where I live), the UK (where I’m from), Mexico (where my wife is from) and a few other far-flung places about how their payment habits have changed in the wake of the SARS CoV-2 pandemic. The response was almost universally the same. With a few notable exceptions from the Mexican contingent, almost everyone said they are using cash a lot less than before.My friends in the UK, already one of the world’s most cashless economies before Covid struck, are hardly using cash at all now. Many supermarket retailers are politely but firmly urging people to use contactless methods, ostensibly to reduce the risk of covid-19 contagion, even though people are just as likely to catch covid from any number of supermarket items, including, of course, digital payments PIN pads. In a country where a majority of people had already bought into the speed and convenience of cashless payments, the effect has been to push cash even further to the margins.“I don’t use cash unless I have to,” says Stuart, who lives in Chester. “My favorite Chinese takeaway only takes cash and it is annoying… but worth it. That is pretty much the only time I have used cash in the last 12 months.”The situation in Spain is somewhat different. Before the pandemic it was one of Europe’s most cash-heavy economies. But even here, cash’s role is dwindling. In my neighborhood of Barcelona (Eixample Dreta), cash is being used in roughly one in three transactions, based on my own observations and canvassing of local retail businesses. More and more people are using mobile payment platforms to settle P2P payments. Bizum, the free-of-charge (for now!) payment platform launched by Spanish banks five years ago, doubled its number of users to 13.2 million in 2020. That’s more than a quarter of the population.
Massive protest in Berlin against plans to reopen schools - Teachers, parents and students have responded with massive protests against the plans of the Berlin Senate (state executive) to largely reopen schools amid rising infection figures. But despite this opposition and clear scientific evidence that schools are a major driver of the pandemic, the state government of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Left Party is sticking to the herd immunity policy in the interests of big business. The Senate had initially planned to send back all graduating classes as early as next week and the lower classes a week later. A complete return to face-to-face teaching was then planned from mid-February. “I want to return to face-to-face teaching as urgently as possible,” Berlin’s mayor Michael Müller (SPD) told the House of Representatives (state legislature). Pupil Moritz is on his way to the first day at his new school in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner) Given the dramatic rise in coronavirus infections in the capital, the Senate’s decision triggered a storm of indignation that forced it to partially withdraw its plans on Friday evening. Christoph Podewils, a Berlin family man, started an online petition demanding “No face-to-face teaching in Berlin until COVID-19 is under control,” which had garnered more than 45,000 signatures by the weekend. The petition demanded that Müller and Education Senator (state minister) Sandra Scheeres (SPD) reverse their “irresponsible decision.” Previously, educators had also addressed Scheeres in an open letter. Several Berlin schools also resisted the Senate’s decision. The head of the Steglitz Fichtenberg grammar school, Andreas Steiner, said in Tagesspiegel, “In my opinion, the planned reopening of schools is irresponsible and negligent. Our employer’s actions in this regard pose a threat to the efforts of society as a whole to contain the pandemic and disproportionately risk the health of teachers, students and the health of affected families.” A headteacher from Treptow-Köpenick told broadcaster rbb that she would definitely not open her school on Monday. Earlier, schools in the Neukölln district had opposed the decision. Richard Gamp, spokesperson for the state school board, demanded that reliable figures on the current incidence of infections be available before schools could be reopened. The state parents’ committee reacted with outrage, “Domestic contacts are being reduced to one person. But in schools, pupils from up to 16 households are allowed to meet with their teachers in classrooms.”
European agency says hackers leaked stolen COVID-19 vaccine data - The European Medicines Agency (EMA) announced Tuesday that hackers had leaked information on COVID-19 vaccines stolen as part of a breach discovered late last year. “The ongoing investigation of the cyberattack on EMA revealed that some of the unlawfully accessed documents related to COVID-19 medicines and vaccines belonging to third parties have been leaked on the internet,” the EMA reported in a statement. “Necessary action is being taken by the law enforcement authorities.”The update comes a month after both Pfizer and BioNTech, and laterModerna, said the EMA had informed the companies that some evaluation documents had been accessed in the cyberattack on the agency. The cyberattack took place after the companies had submitted their respective COVID-19 vaccines to the EMA for approval for emergency use in European Union member states. The EMA, which is based in Amsterdam, is a European Union agency that supervises and evaluates the use of various medicines for both humans and animals. The EMA approved the vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech in December, and approved the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine earlier this month. “The Agency continues to fully support the criminal investigation into the data breach and to notify any additional entities and individuals whose documents and personal data may have been subject to unauthorised access,” the agency wrote Tuesday.“The Agency and the European medicines regulatory network remain fully functional and timelines related to the evaluation and approval of COVID-19 medicines and vaccines are not affected,” the EMA noted.The EMA is far from the first government agency to be targeted by hackers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services both were victims of cyberattacks last year, along with hospitals throughout the U.S. and around the world falling victim to ransomware attacks, in some cases negatively impacting services.
Poorest UK schoolchildren sent meagre pandemic food parcels, as contractors reap massive profits - Millions responded with shock as the appalling contents of the “food parcels” being delivered to the families of 1.7 million schoolchildren who receive free school meals was exposed on social media. Many expressed disgust and denounced the profiteering from poverty during the school closures necessitated by the pandemic. One mother, using the handle “Roadside Mum” posted a photo of the contents of her food parcel which contained a loaf of bread, two carrots, two potatoes, a tomato, a tin of baked beans, some individual cheese slices, two mini cake bars, three snack tubes of fromage-frais and a small bag of pasta. The fruit in the parcel was bruised. The mother said that the parcel was supposed to last for two weeks and be worth £30. Her photo was shared more than 30,000 times. “I priced that like-for-like from Asda [supermarket] and it came to £5.22. Where’s the other £25?” She added, “The private company who have the #FSM [free school meals] contract made good profit here.” She told BBC Breakfast, “As I unpacked that food parcel in my living room and looked at the contents, it felt very sad and very depressing. One of my children came in and saw me laying this out on the floor, and I said I was going to picture it because it didn't look like a lot. I could see the child's realisation that this is what I've been given to eat for a week and the sense of sadness.” Other photos showed even less. Lisa T received meagre portions that looked like the modern-day equivalent of the slop served in Victorian workhouses. She explained in a twitter post, “We were given this in a paper bag. It consisted of a bag of pasta, granola, cheese and tomato soup mix (both in money bags!) etc.” The onion (quartered), tomato (halved) and pepper (halved) and carrot (a tiny piece) had been cut up and put into cling film. Lisa commented, “Our school was disgusted by our caterers! Food in money bags!!! Pathetic carrot stub.” Another image from Christa Lee showed food contents also packed in bank money bags for her 17-year-old daughter. Her school is in one of the ten most deprived areas in England. Christa told the Daily Mirror, “This tells our children that they do not matter. That all they are worth is food in unsafe packaging that will leave them hungry. Children as young as 11 years old are being given this and expected to be able to prepare it. Many of them will be preparing it alone due to parents having to work. Those on low incomes rarely have the luxury of a job that can be done from home." Mother Faye Emery shared a picture showing five small bottles of water, a cheap loaf of white bread, a few slices of processed ham, a small package of cheese and four small, prepacked fruit cakes. Each of her two children received this package from their academy school in Norfolk. Stating that “I don’t know if I’d feed the ham to my dog,” as “what I’ve got is a bunch of gristle,” Faye asked the school to use the £30 to provide her with ingredients to cook a hot meal instead. The Metro said she was told, “you either get it or get nothing.”
‘Welcome to the Brexit, sir’: Drivers have sandwiches confiscated at Dutch border - Border officials have been confiscating sandwiches and other foodstuffs from drivers arriving in the Netherlands from the UK after Brexit, TV footage has revealed. A Dutch TV clip showed a driver had his ham sandwiches taken away by border officials as he arrived – with one border guard joking: “Welcome to the Brexit, sir.” The officials could be heard explaining the new, post-Brexit rules for drivers, which forbid people from bringing food which originates in the UK into EU countries. “Since Brexit you are longer allowed certain foods to Europe,” one border official at the Hook of Holland sea port told Netherlands’ NPO television. One driver coming off the ferry from Britain with ham sandwiches wrapped in tinfoil was heard pleading with the border guard: “Can you take the meat and leave me the bread?” The official replied: “No, everything will be confiscated – welcome to the Brexit, sir. I’m sorry.” UK government guidance produced for drivers travelling to EU countries states: “From 1 January 2021 you will not be able to bring POAO (products of an animal origin) such as those containing meat or dairy (eg a ham and cheese sandwich) into the EU.”
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