FOMC Minutes Show Fed Discussing 2013-Like Taper To Bond-Purchases --Two days after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says the central bank might taper its bond purchases later this year if the distribution of vaccines boosts the U.S. economic outlook.“I am hopeful that in fairly short order we can start to recalibrate,” Bostic said in an interview with Reuters Monday“If we determine things have strengthened appreciably, that we have made significant progress, then we will think about the next appropriate action”But who's gonna monetize the debt cries Washington? And so, all eyes are on today FOMC Minutes for any signs that The Fed is about to start stealing the jam out of the market's donut.And so, as we noted above, with a shitload (technical term) of fiscal stimulus delivered and (post-Georgia) teed up for more,will the Fed use these Minutes to preview when the dreaded (hand-off) tapering will happen? Or is the break of the psychological 1.0% yield level have them preferring to keep the dream of Yield Curve Control alive with their signaling from these Minutes?But of course, as the image suggests, Powell has already answered all these questions - they'll keep rates low and printing billions for longer and longer than you can imagine - which suggests today's Minutes should be a nothing-burger.Well, first things first, they did mention the taper:A number of participants noted that, once such progress had been attained, a gradual tapering of purchases could begin and the process thereafter could generally follow a sequence similar to the one implemented during the large-scale purchase program in 2013 and 2014.Some participants noted that the Committee could consider future adjustments to its asset purchases - such as increasing the pace of securities purchases or weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward those that had longer remaining maturities - if such adjustments were deemed appropriate to support the attainment of the Committee's objectives."But, on the other hand, some suggested extending the duration of their buying: Regarding the decisions on the pace and composition of the Committee’s asset purchases, all participants judged that it would be appropriate to continue those purchases at least at the current pace, and nearly all favored maintaining the current composition of purchases, although a couple of participants indicated that they were open to weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward longer maturities. Primarily in response to the recent favorable news on the development of COVID-19 vaccines, the staff revised up its projection of real GDP growth for 2021 as a whole, as social-distancing measures were expected to ease more quickly than previously assumed. With monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to project that real GDP growth over the medium term would be well above the rate of potential output growth, leading to a considerable further decline in the unemployment rate. The resulting take‑up of labor- and product-market slack was expected to lead to gradually increasing inflation, and, for some time in the years beyond 2023, inflation was projected to overshoot 2 percent by a moderate amount, as monetary policy remained accommodative.
FOMC Minutes: "Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 15-16, 2020. A few excerpts: Participants continued to see the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook as elevated, with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus. The positive vaccine news was seen as reducing downside risks over the medium term, and a number of participants saw risks to economic activity as more balanced than earlier. Still, participants saw significant uncertainties regarding how quickly the deployment of vaccines would proceed as well as how different members of the public would respond to the availability of vaccines. Participants cited several downside risks that could threaten the economic recovery. These risks included the possibility of significant additional fiscal policy support not materializing in a timely manner, the potential for further adverse pandemic developments—which could lead to more-stringent restrictions, more-severe business failures, and more permanent job losses—and the chance that trade negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union would not be concluded successfully before the December 31 deadline. As upside risks, participants mentioned the prospect that the release of pent-up demand, spurred by wider-scale vaccinations and easing of social distancing, could boost spending and bring individuals back to the labor force more quickly than currently expected as well as the possibility that fiscal policy developments could see measures that were larger than expected in amount or economic impact. Regarding inflation, participants generally viewed the risks as having become more balanced than they were earlier in the year, though most still viewed the risks as being weighted to the downside. As an upside risk to inflation, a few participants noted the potential for a stronger-than-expected recovery, coupled with the possible emergence of pandemic-related supply constraints, to boost inflation.
Fed returns money to Treasury for terminated emergency programs - The Federal Reserve has returned about $42 billion to the U.S. Treasury, and will soon transfer another $20 billion in excess funds connected to emergency lending facilities that stopped offering new loans last month, the central bank said Thursday in documents posted on its website. The transfers will fulfill the promise made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Nov. 20 to comply with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s controversial demand that the programs be terminated. The Treasury committed $195 billion from its Exchange Stabilization Fund to provide a backstop for the four programs and had transferred $102.5 billion to the Fed. The programs are retaining about $40 billion to protect against potential losses on the credits the programs extended before their closure. The four programs are the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, the Municipal Liquidity Facility, the primary and secondary corporate credit facilities, and the Main Street Lending Program. All except Main Street were closed on Dec. 31. The termination of Main Street was delayed until Jan. 8 to allow time to finish processing a late surge of loan applications.
Trump renominates Judy Shelton in last-ditch bid to reshape Fed - President Trump on Sunday renominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve, attempting to fill the final vacant seat on the central bank’s board just weeks before he is set to leave office. Trump renewed Shelton’s nomination on the first day of the new Congress after she failed to muster enough support for confirmation last year. Unconfirmed presidential nominations automatically expire at the end of a session of Congress. Shelton’s renomination is the first step in a last-ditch push by Trump to add a controversial ally to the Fed board. If Republicans can defend one of Georgia's two Senate seats in Jan. 5 runoff elections, Shelton may have enough support to be confirmed before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in Jan. 20. The Senate is divided between 51 Republicans and 48 Democrats pending the results of the Georgia runoffs. All Democratic senators and GOP Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Susan Collins (Maine) oppose Shelton’s nomination, making one more GOP defection or a loss by Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) or former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) likely fatal to her bid. Loeffler is serving out the remainder of former GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson’s term, which will last until either she or Warnock are sworn in as his successor. The Senate seat Perdue held until Sunday is vacant and will remain so until the winner of his race with Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is sworn in. Shelton, a former Trump campaign adviser, was first nominated to the Fed in January 2019 and came remarkably close to confirmation in December. Despite opposition from three GOP senators, she appeared on track to be confirmed until coronavirus-related absences allowed Democrats to defeat a motion to end debate on her nomination. The swearing-in of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) to succeed former GOP Sen. Martha McSally on Nov. 30 left Republicans without enough votes to confirm Shelton for the remainder of 2020.
Rates Are Blowing Out: A 1% Increase In 10Y Yields Will Slash P/E Multiples By 18% As Bloomberg macro technician William Maloney writes this morning, after a lengthy period of meandering, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries spiked above 1.0% and hit 1.052% amid an ascending triangle breakout, signalling a further rise could be on the way. According to Maloney, the breakout could set up a run to 1.09%, which is 76.4% Fibonacci of the March 19 peak to August low. The reason for the breakout, as discussed earlier, is simple: the Docratic blue sweep which now appears likely paves the way for more spending, much more stimulus and a gaping budget deficit, pushing inflation expectations and nominal yields sharply higher. Indeed, long-bond rates were on track for their biggest one-day jump since March’s pandemic-related turmoil and investors have already started to dust off reflation trades in anticipation of a so-called Blue Sweep. “The result will certainly be seen as a driver of higher Treasury yields,” said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. "The reflation trade has already been sparked. The question really is how much further the Senate result will push that." “I can see 10-year Treasury yields rising to 1.5% to 2% in short order if more and more uncertainty gets behind us,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore. To be sure, while a continuation of the move higher in yields is guaranteed, the reason why markets remain sanguine about a major, VaR-shock inducing move - one which would risk to violent deleveraging among the risk parity funds and hammer risk assets - is because the Fed has previously telegraphed it would step in with some form of Yield Curve Control to prevent just that from happening. But what if the Fed is willing to let yields run? What if inflation is about to be unleashed and the next stop for the 10Y is not 1.50% but 2.0% or even 3.0% or more? What will happen to stocks then? For the answer we go to the latest note from Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, who warned that surging yields is the biggest risk the market is unprepared for, and made some ominous observations. We excerpt them below:
Economists Expect Tough Sledding in Winter, Then a Rebound – WSJ - Headed into 2021, the U.S. faces a surge in coronavirus cases, new restrictions on business,cautious holiday shopping and slowing economic growth. Forecasters anticipate that the Labor Department’s December jobs report, due to be released Friday, will show the labor market closed the year on a weak footing. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect to see employers added 68,000 new jobs in December, down from 245,000 a month earlier. That would mark the slowest month of the labor market’s recovery since May.As the Covid-19 pandemic drags into another year, however, economists see several reasons for optimism.First, the recently enacted pandemic-relief legislative package will pump $900 billion into the economy in coming months.Second, with much of the services sector hobbled by the pandemic, Americans have been saving an unusually high share of their income since spring, when the pandemic first prompted widespread restrictions on business activities. The U.S. personal saving rate was 12.9% in November, down from 33.7% in April but still well above the 7.5% rate a year earlier. Many households will be able to draw on those reserves to boost spending once coronavirus-related restrictions ease and vaccinations embolden people to venture out more, according to economists.These two factors together could fuel a resurgence in spending that will jazz the economy in the second half of 2021.Third, borrowing costs are low, and most Federal Reserve officials expect the central bank will hold short-term rates near zero for at least three more years.Goldman Sachs expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow 5.8% in 2021 after contracting 3.5% in 2020. Moody’s Investors Service expects 4.2% growth in 2021.One cloud on the horizon is that the latest coronavirus-relief package might be coming too late to prevent the economy from slowing further in the first quarter of 2021.In a Journal survey of economists last month, forecasters slashed their projections for economic growth and job creation in the first quarter of 2021, but raised them for the second, third and fourth quarters.“I look at 2021 as a critical transition year for the U.S. economy,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group. He welcomed the new pandemic-relief package, but cautioned that uncertainty remained around the vaccine rollout. He said he expected 2021 “to be a year of adjustment, of adaptation.”Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. in Birmingham, Ala., said the recovery’s shape would depend on consumers’ psychology, particularly whether and when they feel comfortable going back to spending as they did before the pandemic.Analysts caution that the economy is likely to look different as it emerges from the pandemic, with some crisis-driven shifts proving permanent. Companies are rethinking whether to bring workers back to offices and how much employees need to travel now that teleconferencing is a bigger part of daily life. American consumers have accelerated their embrace of digital shopping, telehealth appointments and online fitness classes while shunning malls, doctors’ offices and gyms.
Business Cycle Indicators, January 4th by Menzie Chinn - With the release of the IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, key indicators tracked byNBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November (joining personal income ex.-transfers in decline): Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 1/4/2021 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/4/2021 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.The Bloomberg consensus for nonfarm payroll employment for December is for an increase of only 100,000 (that was true when I last checked as well – 12/23).IHS Markit notes:Monthly GDP declined 0.8% in November following a 0.6% increase in October that was revised lower by 0.1 percentage point. The decline in November was the first so far in the recovery and reflected declines in personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, net exports, and nonfarm inventory investment. There were partially offsetting increases in residential investment and the portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data. NY Fed nowcast as of 12/31 is for 2.1% in Q4, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow as of 1/4 is for 8.6%. The IHS Markit forecast as of today is 3.0%, implying a further 0.4% (nonannualized) decline in December.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of January 3rd. The seven day average is down 53.0% from last year (47.0% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through January 2, 2020. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 31st. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $28 million last week due to Wonder Woman 1984 (compared to usually around $400 million per week at this time of year). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020). This data is through December 26th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 33.0% year-over-year. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of .At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY.As of December 25th, gasoline supplied was off about 9.3% YoY (about 90.7% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through January 1st for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 43% of the January level. It is at 30% in Chicago, and 49% in Houston - and mostly trending down over the last few months (with dips on holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Mitch McConnell’s House Vandalized Over $2,000 Checks - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had his home vandalized this week, after blocking the vote to increase stimulus payments to $2,000. Messages like ‘WERES MY MONEY’ and ‘MITCH K1LLS THE POOR.’ were spray-painted on the building. Police said that they don’t have any suspects. On Saturday, McConnell released a statement to the Louisville Courier Journal which read: “Vandalism and the politics of fear have no place in our society. My wife and I have never been intimidated by this toxic playbook. We just hope our neighbors in Louisville aren’t too inconvenienced by this radical tantrum.” In 2015, Time listed McConnell as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. McConnell is the longest-serving U.S. senator for Kentucky in history, and the longest-serving leader of U.S. Senate Republicans in history. During the Trump administration, Senate Republicans, under McConnell’s leadership, broke records on the number of judicial nominees confirmed. Among those nominees were Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh who were recently confirmed to the Supreme Court. McConnell’s critics have called him by a variety of different nicknames, including “Moscow Mitch”, “Cocaine Mitch”, the “Grim Reaper”, “Darth Vader”, “Rich Mitch”, “Nuclear Mitch”, and “Midnight Mitch.” On some occasions, he has even embraced these nicknames, although he was apparently unhappy with the more recent “Moscow Mitch.” McConnell has a net worth of $35 million dollars, and many Americans feel that he is out of touch. He isn’t the only US politician that was a target for vandalism this week. According to a report from TMZ this week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had her house vandalized with a pig’s head and fake blood. Spray painted in black on the white garage door were the messages “$2K,” an apparent reference to the $2,000 COVID stimulus checks that have been held up in the U.S. Senate, as well as “CANCEL RENT!” and “WE WANT EVERYTHING!”
Biden stimulus plan: $2,000 stimulus checks and unemployment benefits - The Washington Post -President-elect Joe Biden said Friday he is assembling a multitrillion-dollar relief package that would boost stimulus payments for Americans to $2,000, extend unemployment insurance and send billions of dollars in aid to city and state governments, moving swiftly to address the nation’s deteriorating economic condition and the rampaging pandemic. The package will also include billions of dollars to improve vaccine distribution and tens of millions of dollars for schools, as well as rent forbearance and assistance to small businesses, especially those in low-income communities, Biden said at a news conference in Wilmington, Del.“We need to provide more immediate relief for families and businesses now,” Biden said. “The price tag will be high,” he said, adding, “The overwhelming consensus among leading economists left, right and center is that in order to keep the economy from collapsing this year, getting much, much worse, we should be investing significant amounts of money right now.” Biden said he would lay out the package in more detail next week. It would build on some $4 trillion in economic assistance Congress has already devoted to battling the devastating pandemic, including a $900 billion package President Trump signed into law last month. Discussions were getting underway in earnest with Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill, with Biden aiming to move the package to a vote as quickly as possible. But in an early sign of the challenges Biden may face in getting his agenda through Congress, even with both chambers controlled by Democrats, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) expressed skepticism Friday about the benefits of a new round of stimulus checks. “I don’t know where in the hell $2,000 came from,” Manchin said. “I swear to God I don’t. That’s another $400 billion dollars.” Manchin initially seemed to suggest in an interview with The Washington Post that he was “absolutely” opposed to a new round of checks. He clarified in a follow-up interview that he could potentially support more checks if they were narrow in scope and targeted for people who really need them. Manchin also said that the first priority needed to be on getting people vaccinated, not sending out checks. “If they can direct money and they say, ‘This will help stimulate the economy,’ hell yeah I’m for it,” Manchin said. “But basically right now, you better get them vaccinated.” Biden has made new stimulus checks a central promise, specifically telling Georgia voters that they would be getting $2,000 payments if Democrats won Senate runoff elections in the state this week.
Iran issues Interpol arrest warrant for Trump over Soleimani killing as tensions rise - The Iranian government has filed a “red notice” with Interpol that requests the arrest of US president Donald Trump and 47 other American officials for the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps major general Qassem Soleimani on 3 January 2020.“The Islamic Republic of Iran is very seriously following up on pursuing and punishing those who ordered and executed this crime,” said Iranian judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili as reported by Al Jazeera. Interpol didn’t grant a previous arrest request by Tehran prosecutor Ali Alqasimehr, when he issued an international warrant in June for the arrest of Mr Trump and other officials at the Pentagon and US central command on “murder and terrorism charges”. Rejecting the June request, Interpol said that its own constitution forbids it from taking on any "intervention or activities of a political, military, religious or racial character”.As Mr Trump leaves office on January 20, Iran hopes it will become easier to force him to face consequences for the killing of Mr Soleimani.The chief justice of Iran Ebrahim Raisi, said: “Fortunately, Trump’s presidency has ended. But even if his term hadn’t ended, it would be unacceptable to say someone shouldn’t be accountable to law due to his administrative position.”
Authorities investigating after threat to attack Capitol: report -Federal officials are reportedly investigating after a threat was sent to air traffic controllers to attack the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday in retaliation for the 2020 assassination of a top Iranian general. The audio, reportedly sent to air traffic controllers in New York and obtained by CBS News, says "We are flying a plane into the Capitol on Wednesday. [Gen. Qassem] Soleimani will be avenged.” Officials do not believe the threat to be credible but are investigating the frequency breach, according to CBS. The Defense Department and intelligence agencies have been briefed on the matter. Sources told the network that regardless of whether the threat itself is plausible, the intrusion itself is considered far more worrisome for its potential to interfere with communications between the controllers and pilots. The message was received on Jan. 3, the first anniversary of the U.S.’s killing of Soleimani at a Baghdad airport. The possibility of retaliation from Iran to mark the anniversary has been a major concern for the U.S. In the immediate aftermath of the killing, Iran launched an attack on a Baghdad airbase housing U.S. troops, killing none but injuring several. This week, Iran called on the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) to issue a “red notice” for Trump’s arrest in connection with Soleimani’s killing. The international agency’s general secretariat told NPR it is “strictly forbidden for the Organization to undertake any intervention or activities of a political, military, religious or racial character” and that it will not act on Iran’s request.
Janet Yellen’s Cash Haul of $7 Million Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg; She Failed to Report Her Wall Street Speaking Fees from JPMorgan and Others in 2018- Pam Martens - Yellen is Biden’s nominee for U.S. Treasury Secretary. In anticipation of her Senate confirmation hearing, she has released her financial disclosure forms which showed a windfall of more than $7 million in speaking fees since she left her position with the Federal Reserve. The bulk of that money came from Wall Street firms, which are variously regulated and bailed out by the Fed.Our question for Yellen is an uncomfortable one: why did her financial disclosure formreport her cash haul from Wall Street’s serially charged trading houses for just the years 2019 and 2020 when common sense suggests her biggest haul would have been in 2018, when her knowledge of the thinking at the Fed was most timely.Yellen stepped down as Chair of the Federal Reserve on February 3, 2018 when President Trump failed to renominate her for the position of Chair. Yellen was a Fed Governor before becoming its Chair and that term didn’t expire until 2024. Yellen could have remained at the Fed and functioned as a public servant. Instead, in the very same month that she stepped down at the Fed, she signed an exclusive contract with the Washington Speakers Bureau.Less than two months after stepping down from the Fed, Yellen was raking in huge fees for chumming around with, and delivering her bits of wisdom to, the mega trading houses on Wall Street: the very same folks who blew up the U.S. financial system in 2008 and received a super-secret $29 trillion bailout from the Fed. The details of the Fed’s obscene bailout were made public three years after the fact under a federal court decision and government audit.Yellen’s first event on April 2, 2018 was reported by Reuters. Yellen was hosted by Jefferies Group LLC where she first answered questions from 100 of its top clients – such as hedge funds. That same evening, she dined at the penthouse of Jefferies’ CEO with 40 of his chosen guests at a sit-down dinner. Yellen declined to tell Reuters what she was paid for the event.We also know from thisYouTube video and press release that Yellen was a speaker during the October 28-31, 2018 Charles Schwab IMPACT conference, held at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C. We have yet to learn what she was paid for that event.Bloomberg News alsoreported Yellen’s presence at their November 6-7, 2018 New Economic Forum in Singapore, writing that Yellen said it was “unclear whether the U.S. has the appropriate tools to deal with some of the new, emerging risks.” The public has no knowledge of what Yellen charged to speak in Singapore.And we know from a press release from the CME Group, owner of futures exchanges, that Yellen spoke at its annual Global Financial Leadership Conference at the Ritz-Carlton beach resort, held November 12-14, 2018 in Naples, Florida. Again, the specific amount she was paid for this event has been withheld by Yellen. How much Yellen was paid by the five-count felony firm of JPMorgan Chase is a matter of national interest (and potentially national security), considering that the Fed did not force out the bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, as he presided over all five of those felony counts in a six-year span. The bank admitted guilt to all five felonies.
Biden Taps Merrick Garland For Attorney General - Politico reports that Joe Biden has decided to tap Merrick Garland, a federal judge who gained a national profile after being nominated to the Supreme Court by President Obama (before being blocked by Mitch McConnell), to serve as his attorney general.Garland has long been rumored to be a front runner for the job, even as many of Biden's supporters pushed him to pick a woman, or a minority, for the role.According to Politico, Biden selected Garland over former Alabama Sen. Doug Jones and former deputy attorney general Sally Yates (the top choice of both the Emily's List crowd, as well as delusional Russiagaters). Garland is currently the chief judge of the US Court of Appeals in Washington.Until today, Jones was viewed as the easiest candidate to get confirmed given his strong relationships across the aisle. But with the GOP facing a sweep in Georgia, those risks have apparently dissipated.Per Politico, Garland was also considered a risk because of his current job, where he plays a critical role on the court of appeals in Washington DC. Replacing him in that position could also create headaches for Biden.But at the end of the day, the longstanding relationship between Biden and Garland, which dates back at least to when he was nominated by Biden's former boss, apparently won out. When Garland was nominated to the Supreme Court back in 2016, Majority Leader McConnell refused to hold hearings, leaving the nomination effectively dead in the water.Biden is expected to announce his decision on Thursday, when he will unveil his AG pick, along with two other senior DoJ positions, including former homeland security adviser Lisa Monaco as deputy attorney general and former Justice Department civil rights chief Vanita Gupta as associate attorney general. He had to wait almost four years, but it looks like Garland will finally get that Senate confirmation vote.
Biden names conservative appeals court judge Merrick Garland as attorney general - On Thursday, President-elect Joe Biden announced his selection of appeals court judge Merrick Garland to be his attorney general. This was followed Friday by the announcement of his final cabinet nominees, including Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo as commerce secretary and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh as secretary of labor. In announcing his selections Friday, Biden once again boasted that his cabinet was the “most diverse” in US history, noting that he had previously nominated “the first woman secretary of Treasury,” an “African-American as secretary of defense” and “a gay transportation secretary.”While Biden’s nominees certainly come in all shapes, hues and sizes, their allegiance to the ruling class is no less complete than that of their predecessors in the Trump administration. All of them are tried-and-true servants of big business and the military/intelligence establishment. When arch-reactionary Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died in early 2016, President Barack Obama nominated Garland to fill the seat. Obama chose Garland with the idea that his law-and-order credentials would placate the Republican-controlled Senate and its majority leader, Mitch McConnell. As an appeals court judge during the Bush and Obama years, Garland endorsed the right-wing theory of “deference” to the executive, according to which executive agencies are presumed to be acting reasonably and lawfully. He rejected lawsuits from Guantanamo Bay prisoners, ruling in Hatim v. Obama(2014) that humiliating and vindictive genital searches of detainees were “reasonable security precautions.” In 2016, the New York Times interviewed former Reagan administration lawyer Joe diGenova, who vouched for Garland. Prospective Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is a former hedge fund manager. In accepting her nomination, the Rhode Island governor touted her ability to “bring business and workers together in common cause,” and pledged to work for an “inclusive recovery” that would involve “bringing back jobs from overseas.” Raimondo is notorious for pushing through Rhode Island’s 2011 public pension “reform,” which raised the minimum age of retirement from 62 to 67 and eliminated cost of living increases. Raimondo, who at the time was state treasurer, proceeded to invest at least $1 billion of Rhode Island’s pension funds in hedge funds. In 2013, the Providence Journal estimated that some $70 million in fees was paid to the hedge fund managers who had been chosen by Raimondo as part of the so-called “pension reform.” As governor, Raimondo implemented an agenda of austerity for the working class and handouts to the rich. In 2015, she announced plans to “reinvent Medicaid,” claiming that the program of medical insurance for the poor was “unsustainable” and no cuts could be “taken off the table.” Her “reinvention” resulted in the privatization of the management of Medicaid and cuts to the program, including nearly $60 million in 2020. Rounding out his cabinet, Biden announced the selection of Boston Mayor Marty Walsh for the post of secretary of labor. Walsh backed the removal last month of an iconic statue depicting Abraham Lincoln and a freed slave, following a vicious racialist campaign against the monument. Walsh has worked closely with the Boston Teachers Union to blackmail educators back into the classroom in order to facilitate the return of parents to unsafe workplaces. In accepting the nomination, Walsh signaled his support for the trade union bureaucracy by pledging to “grow union membership.”
Top House Appropriations Republican tests COVID-19 positive -Rep. Kay Granger (Texas), the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, announced on Monday that she tested positive for COVID-19 after arriving in Washington for the start of the new session of Congress. Granger's positive test came after she received her first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine that the Capitol physician began distributing to members of Congress last month. Granger was tested for COVID-19 on Sunday and is not feeling symptoms, according to her spokesperson. “When she arrived in DC for the beginning of the 117th Congress, Congresswoman Kay Granger was tested for coronavirus in accordance with the Attending Physician’s guidance for Members when traveling from their home state. She was later notified that she tested positive and immediately quarantined. Having received the vaccine in December, she is asymptomatic and feeling great! She will remain under the care of her doctor," Granger spokesperson Sarah Flaim said in a statement. Before learning of her positive test, Granger participated in House floor votes on Sunday, including the Speaker election. Members of Congress are advised to be tested for COVID-19 upon arrival in Washington, but can still go about their regular business while awaiting their results if they don't have symptoms or any known exposure to the virus. The Capitol's testing system provides results within one day at the most, although often in a matter of hours. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is shown to provide some protection against COVID-19 about 10 days after receiving the first dose, but the second dose provides a longer-term boost. Pfizer has said that the vaccine efficacy after the first dose is about 52 percent, but it goes up to 95 percent after the second dose — which is administered three weeks later.
GOP Rep. Kevin Brady tests positive for COVID-19 -Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) announced Tuesday that he tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the latest in a growing list of lawmakers to contract the virus. Brady said the House physician told him Tuesday night that he contracted the coronavirus and that he must now in quarantine. He added that he received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine on Dec. 18 and last tested negative for the coronavirus on Jan. 1. The lawmaker said he would receive treatment Wednesday, though he did not clarify what that treatment will be. Brady is the second House member in as many days to test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Rep. Kay Granger (Texas), the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee said Monday that she has the coronavirus. Data has shown that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine provides some protection against COVID-19 about 10 days after receiving the first dose, but recipients get a more significant boost after receiving their second dose three weeks later. Pfizer has conceded that its vaccine’s efficacy sits around 52 percent after just the first dose but jumps to 95 percent after the full regimen is complete. Lawmakers have been advised to get tested for the coronavirus when coming back to Washington but are allowed to perform their duties while they wait for the results if they are asymptomatic or have not come into contact with someone who knows they have the virus. It was not immediately clear where Brady contracted the virus, but lawmakers were seen crowding on the House floor Sunday during an unexpected floor vote. That development sparked a stern rebuke from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who sent a letter to lawmakers reminding them of social distancing guidelines. At least 49 members of Congress or lawmakers-elect have tested positive for COVID-19 since March. A number of others have tested positive for antibodies or had presumed cases.
COVID-19 relief bill: A promising first act for immigration reform - On Sunday evening, President Trump signed into law the $900 billion coronavirus funding package that would provide, among other relief measures, stimulus checks to over 3 million U.S. citizens who were previously denied because they married or have a parent who is an undocumented immigrant. This victory proves that even in a horrible political environment, bipartisan solutions to our nation's immigration challenges are possible, setting a launch pad for common sense immigration solutions for the new year. The new bill ends a damaging marriage penalty and allows payments of $600 for an individual U.S. citizen and $600 for each dependent child in households with an undocumented spouse. The new bill also allows families to recover the covid relief check denied in the first round of stimulus payments — $1,200 for each U.S. citizen taxpayer and $500 for each U.S. citizen child — when they file their 2020 taxes in the spring. A broad, bipartisan coalition of advocates together with a coalition of bipartisan Congressional leaders made this win possible. Sen, Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Ron Wyden, need to be thanked The American Business Immigration Coalition (ABIC) joined advocates New York Immigration Coalition, National Immigration Law Center, Catholic Conference of Bishops, SEIU, and Mixed Status Families United among many others to correct this unfair and unkind mistake. As COVI9-19 infections surge across the country, choking the economy, the new Covid funding package will offer a life-line to more households without a punishing immigration marriage penalty. Ending this discrimination is rare progress on immigration issues under President Trump. This promising bipartisan leadership is the kick-off for immigration solutions in 2021. Similar to stimulus checks for mixed status households, a path to legalization is popular among American voters. Despite — or perhaps because — of Trump’s efforts to limit immigration and denigrate immigrants, American support for immigration has soared to historic highs. For the first time since such polls were conducted in 1965, Americans want more, not less, immigration.
Judge blocks dramatic overhaul of U.S. asylum system from taking effect (Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge in California on Friday blocked the Trump administration from implementing a new rule that would have dramatically reshaped the U.S. asylum system and restricted asylum eligibility for immigrants seeking refuge in the United States. The injunction undermines the Trump administration’s last-minute efforts to solidify its hardline immigration policies before U.S. president-elect Joe Biden takes office later this month. U.S. District Judge James Donato of the Northern District of California granted an injunction sought by immigrant advocacy groups seeking to block the rule, which the Trump administration published on Dec. 11 and was set to take effect on Monday. Pangea Legal Services and Immigration Equality sought to block the rule on the grounds that the Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, who authorized it, was not lawfully appointed to office. A Brooklyn judge in November blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which protects certain migrants from deportation, on the same grounds. “The government has recycled exactly the same legal and factual claims made in the prior cases, as if they had not been soundly rejected in well-reasoned opinions by several courts,” Donato wrote in his opinion on the asylum rule. U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Wolf’s nomination on Thursday after Wolf condemned Trump’s supporters rioting inside the U.S. capitol in Washington D.C. and said he would support an orderly transition of power to president-elect Joe Biden. The final rule would have cut off asylum access for most migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border through a series of changes to eligibility criteria, according to experts and advocates. It also directed immigration judges and asylum officers to deny broad types of asylum claims, such as those based on domestic abuse and gang violence, with some exceptions.
Trump-nominated US attorney in Atlanta abruptly leaves post -An Atlanta-based U.S. attorney appointed by President Trump abruptly left his position on Monday after serving three years in the role, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Georgia announced Monday.U.S. Attorney Byung J. “BJay” Pak, the first Korean American to become a U.S. attorney, resigned, effective immediately, on Monday after Trump appointed him to the position in 2017.Pak, who was born in South Korea, called serving as a U.S. attorney "the greatest honor of my professional career.""I have done my best to be thoughtful and consistent, and to provide justice for my fellow citizens in a fair, effective and efficient manner," he said in a release. “As I look back at my almost a decade serving the Department of Justice (and this office in particular), the most memorable and fulfilling moments involve working very closely with our law enforcement partners in keeping our communities safe," he added.After his appointment, Pak took over the corruption investigation into Atlanta City Hall and the administration of then-Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed that prosecutors had worked on since 2015.Under Pak, the probe led to seven guilty pleas from contractors and city officials and four indictments. Pak previously served in the Georgia House of Representatives for six years and before that as an assistant U.S. attorney in the Northern District of Georgia.His resignation came less than a month after the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Georgia, Charles Peeler, who was also appointed by Trump, announced he would step down, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.
Attorney says census count to determine congressional seats won't be done until February - An attorney in President Trump’s administration said Monday that the census count to determine how many congressional seats each state gets will not be completed until February. John Coghlan, a deputy assistant attorney general, said during a California court hearing that the Census Bureau has discovered new irregularities in its data, which is expected to delay the delivery of the data until after President-elect Joe Biden takes office, The Associated Press reported. The postponement of census data delivery beyond Inauguration Day would dash Trump’s efforts to remove undocumented immigrants from the final count for states, thus reducing their representation in the House and their portion of allocated federal funding. Coghlan, who spoke during a hearing for a federal lawsuit in San Jose, Calif., noted the numbers may not be finalized until later than the current Feb. 9 goal, adding that, “It’s a continuously moving target,” according to the AP. This year marked the first time the Census Bureau missed its end-of-year deadline to complete its data finalization after its processing time was halved because of an extended collection period due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The census collection was originally scheduled to be completed at the end of July before the deadline was moved to the end of October. The bureau had requested for the data processing deadline to be extended to April 2021, but the matter stalled in the GOP-controlled Senate.
Proud Boys leader arrested on charge related to December pro-Trump protests - Washington, D.C., police on Monday arrested the leader of the far-right Proud Boys, Enrique Tarrio, on a destruction of property charge related to the pro-President Trump protests last month. Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) officers took the 36-year-old Proud Boys chairman into custody after he entered the city over an arrest warrant for the charge from the Dec. 12 incident. Tarrio, who is from Miami, is believed to have been coming from the airport after arriving for the pro-Trump demonstrations scheduled this week to oppose the expected congressional certification of the election results. During his arrest, Tarrio was found to be in possession of two high-capacity firearm magazines, prompting him also to be charged with possessing a high-capacity feeding device, police said.Tarrio was among those who burned a Black Lives Matter banner that was taken down from Asbury United Methodist, a historic Black church, last month, he previously told The Washington Post, saying he would plead guilty to any destruction of property charges. Under the misdemeanor charge, Tarrio could face up to 180 days in jail and a $1,000 fine. Protesters also took down a sign with the same phrase from the Metropolitan African Methodist Episcopal Church.At the time, police said they would investigate the vandalism as potential hate crimes. MPD spokesperson Dustin Sternbeck told the Post on Monday that prosecutors would determine whether to file hate charges. Tarrio had previously told the Post he would not admit to committing a hate crime, saying he and other Proud Boys members did not target the church because it has a predominantly Black congregation. Instead, he said, he was protesting the Black Lives Matter movement that “has terrorized the citizens of this country.”
Tape reveals Trump gangster methods in pursuing election coup -- In an hour-long telephone conversation Saturday, leaked to the media and first made public Sunday by the Washington Post, President Donald Trump tried to bully the Georgia secretary of state into overturning the result of the presidential election in his state, which was won by Democrat Joe Biden. “I just want to find 11,780 votes,” Trump told Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia official. That is one more than the margin of 11,779 votes by which Biden won the state’s 16 electoral votes. Raffensperger rejected the plea, declaring that he stood by the result of the vote, which has been recounted twice, including a hand recount of all ballots run through voting machines. Trump threatened Raffensperger and his general counsel, Ryan Germany, with criminal prosecution for allegedly covering up acts of vote fraud in their state. He claimed that he had actually won the state by hundreds of thousands of votes, and that a defeat there was impossible. “The people of Georgia are angry, the people in the country are angry,” he declared. “And there’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated.” Raffensperger responded: “Well, Mr. President, the challenge that you have is, the data you have is wrong.”Trump used the language of a Mafia gangster in referring to a female election worker in Fulton County (Atlanta), who has been demonized on right-wing social media and repeatedly threatened after false allegations by the Trump campaign that she had triple-counted a stack of ballots from the heavily Democratic area. After Raffensperger reiterated that there was no evidence of such actions and that Trump was mistaken, the president responded: “So what are we going to do here folks? I only need 11,000 votes. Fellas, I need 11,000 votes. Give me a break. You know, we have that in spades already. Or we can keep it going but that’s not fair to the voters of Georgia because they’re going to see what happened and they’re going to see what happened. I mean, I’ll, I’ll take on to anybody you want with regard to [name of election worker] and her lovely daughter, a very lovely young lady, I’m sure.” This is nothing less than a threat of physical violence against the election worker—whose name has been withheld—and her child, coming from the president of the United States, the “commander-in-chief” of a vast military and police apparatus, as well as the leader of the Republican Party, which has increasingly taken on the coloration of a fascist movement.
Ocasio-Cortez says Trump's Georgia call is an impeachable offense - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Sunday that she thinks President Trump's call pressuring the Georgia secretary of state to overturn his defeat in the state is an offense that merits impeachment. She acknowledged that she hadn't listened to the entire hourlong recording obtained by The Washington Post but said she believed Trump's actions warranted sanction."I absolutely think it's an impeachable offense, and if it was up to me, there would be articles on the floor quite quickly, but he, I mean, he is trying to — he is attacking our very election. He's attacking our very election," Ocasio-Cortez told reporters as the new session of Congress began.House Democrats voted in December 2019 to impeach Trump, alleging abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in his efforts to pressure the Ukrainian government to open an investigation into President-elect Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.The GOP-controlled Senate voted mostly along party lines in February 2020 to acquit Trump on both counts. Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are set to take office on Jan. 20, leaving little time for another impeachment process. House Democrats' impeachment inquiry began in late September 2019 and concluded about three months later. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who led the impeachment inquiry in 2019, condemned Trump's actions on Sunday but declined to go as far as advocating for another round of impeachment. "I think it is among the most despicable abuses of power of his long list, possibly criminal, morally repugnant, virulently anti-democratic and dangerous to our democracy," Schiff told reporters. Asked if it would be an impeachable offense if there were more time in Trump's term, Schiff replied, "I would need to think about that, but, you know, if it's potentially criminal, then it's potentially impeachable, and even in the absence of a crime, it's potentially impeachable." One House Democrat, Rep. Hank Johnson (Ga.), said Sunday that he plans to introduce a resolution on Monday to formally censure Trump over the call with Georgia's secretary of state.
Ocasio-Cortez and fellow “progressives” supply votes to reelect Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House - On Sunday, as the new 117th Congress assembled in Washington D.C., Nancy Pelosi was reelected speaker of the House. Her narrow margin of victory was supplied by the so-called “progressive” Democrats headed up by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. All four members of the “Squad”—Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib of Detroit, Ilhan Omar of Minneapolis, Ayanna Pressley of Boston—plus newly elected “progressives” Cori Bush of St. Louis and Jamaal Bowman of New York, voted for the leader of the right-wing Democratic Party establishment. Of this group, three—Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib and Bush—claim membership in the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Pelosi needed 214 votes to secure her fourth term as house speaker. She ended up receiving the votes of 216 of the 221 Democrats who were present. All 209 Republicans in attendance voted for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Members of the new Congress had to be sworn in and physically present in the Capitol to participate in the vote for the speaker. Three CIA Democrats, Elissa Slotkin (Michigan), Abigail Spanberger (Virgina) and Mikie Sherrill (New Jersey), voted “present,” while military veterans Jared Golden (Maine) and Connor Lamb (Pennsylvania) voted for other Democrats. Golden voted for Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, while Lamb voted for House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries. US Socialist Equality Party National Secretary Joseph Kishore remarked after the vote, “No one should be in the least surprised by Ocasio-Cortez voting for Pelosi for speaker. The ‘Squad,’ the DSA are a faction of the Democratic Party. She is, after all, the same person who called [the late US senator and notorious war hawk] John McCain an ‘unparalleled example of human decency and American service.’”
Warnock, Ossoff win in Georgia, handing Dems Senate control (AP) — Democrats won both Georgia Senate seats — and with them, the U.S. Senate majority — as final votes were counted Wednesday, serving President Donald Trump a stunning defeat in his turbulent final days in office while dramatically improving the fate of President-elect Joe Biden’s progressive agenda. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, Democratic challengers who represented the diversity of their party’s evolving coalition, defeated Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler two months after Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992. Warnock, who served as pastor for the same Atlanta church where civil rights leader the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. preached, becomes the first African American from Georgia elected to the Senate. And Ossoff becomes the state’s first Jewish senator and, at 33 years old, the Senate’s youngest member. This week’s elections were expected to mark the formal finale to the tempestuous 2020 election season, although the Democrats’ resounding success was overshadowed by chaos and violence in Washington, where angry Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol to stop Congress from certifying Biden’s victory. Wednesday’s unprecedented siege drew fierce criticism of Trump’s leadership from within his own party, and combined with the bad day in Georgia, marked one of the darkest days of his divisive presidency.
Dominion Voting Systems CEO plans to sue Sidney Powell imminently - Dominion Voting Systems CEO John Poulos told Axios on Monday that his company plans on suing former Trump campaign lawyer Sidney Powell imminently for defamation over her claims about its voting machines. "Our focus right now is on Sidney Powell and there's very good reason for that. She is by far in our opinion the most egregious and prolific purveyor of the falsities against Dominion. Her statements have caused real damage. They're demonstrably false," Poulos said. Powell, formerly part of President Trump's team seeking to overturn the 2020 election, has baselessly claimed that Dominion's algorithm flipped votes and that the company paid Georgia GOP officials to stay quiet on the alleged scheme. "We were originally quiet and we sat back as a company," he added. "Because our hope was that all of these claims would be filed in a process in court where procedure and evidence is important. And it's become clear to us that there is absolutely no interest to reveal this evidence because we know it doesn't exist. And there's no effort to actually put it in front of the court proceedings so that these allegations and all of the evidence can follow a proper process and be litigated right to the end." When asked by Axios's Dan Primack when the lawsuit would be filed, Poulos said, "It's imminent." A Dominion spokesperson speaking to The Hill confirmed that a lawsuit would be filed, possibly as soon as this week. Primack asked Poulos if he would also sue Trump, who has echoed conspiracy theories about Dominion, including during a phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger that was published by The Washington Post on Sunday. Poulos avoided answering directly, saying he would let his legal team take the lead in that decision. When pressed by Primack, Poulos said he could only confirm the suit against Powell. During his call with Raffensperger, Trump pushed multiple conspiracy theories regarding the vote in Georgia, including one that claimed Dominion had tampered with votes. “Do you think it’s possible that they shredded ballots in Fulton County? Because that’s what the rumor is. And also that Dominion took out machines. That Dominion is really moving fast to get rid of their, uh, machinery. Do you know anything about that? Because that’s illegal, right?" Trump asked Raffensperger. Ryan Germany, counsel for Raffensperger, shot down the claims, saying he was "sure" that Dominion had not moved any machines or their internal parts during the Georgia election. Trump also told Raffensperger to "find" the 11,000-plus votes needed to flip the state back into his column.
Cotton breaks with conservative colleagues who will oppose electoral vote count - Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a possible contender for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, broke with his rivals Sunday night by announcing he will not object to the counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6. Cotton warned that an effort spearheaded by Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), two other 2024 White House hopefuls, to challenge the electoral votes of several swing states that went for President-elect Joe Biden could “establish unwise precedents.” While Cotton said he is concerned about how the 2020 presidential election was carried out, such as changes to election law allowing mail-in ballots arriving after Election Day to be counted, he argued it is up to the states and the courts — not Congress — to handle election laws. “The Founders entrusted our elections chiefly to the states — not Congress. They entrusted the election of our president to the people, acting through the Electoral College — not Congress. And they entrusted the adjudication of election disputes to the courts — not Congress,” he said in a statement released Sunday evening. “Under the Constitution and federal law, Congress’s power is limited to counting electoral votes submitted by the state,” he said. Cotton warned that if Congress threw out the electoral votes of states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where President Trump has alleged without evidence widespread election fraud, it would “take away the power to choose the president from the people.” He said it would imperil the Electoral College and the voice it gives to smaller states like Arkansas and help Democrats “achieve their longstanding goal of eliminating the Electoral College.” He said Congress if overrides the Electoral College’s vote, it would “take another big step toward federalizing election law.”
Trump warns Cotton after senator says he won't object to Biden certification - President Trump on Monday targeted Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) a day after the senator said he would not join an effort to object to the certification of Electoral College votes affirming Joe Biden as the next president. "How can you certify an election when the numbers being certified are verifiably WRONG,” Trump tweeted, suggesting he would falsely claim during his rally in Georgia on Monday night that he was a true winner of the election despite multiple audits and court cases confirming Biden had won and that Trump claims lacked standing. "@SenTomCotton Republicans have pluses & minuses, but one thing is sure, THEY NEVER FORGET!” Trump added. Cotton, who is widely considered a potential GOP presidential candidate for 2024, broke with roughly a dozen other Senate Republicans who have said they will object to the electoral results in certain states when Congress certifies the votes on Wednesday. Cotton warned that an effort spearheaded by Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), two other potential 2024 White House hopefuls, to challenge the electoral votes of several swing states that went for President-elect Joe Biden could "establish unwise precedents." Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another staunch Trump ally, also balked at the effort led by Cruz and Hawley, calling it a "political dodge." A handful of other Republicans have also criticized the plan to object to the results, saying it undermines the result of the election and gives Congress undue influence. But those GOP senators, including Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), have largely been frequent Trump critics.
At Least 140 House Republicans Expected To Challenge Electoral College Result - As many as 140 Republican House members are expected to object to certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory as part of President Donald Trump’s continued efforts to overturn his reelection loss. “2 House Republicans tell me they expect as of now that at least 140 Republican Members of the House will on Jan. 6 object to and vote against the Electoral College results,” tweeted CNN host Jake Tapper on Thursday. Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) told Forbes a “staggering number” of his Republican House colleagues will likely object, adding, "140 certainly seems possible… I wouldn't be surprised if it were a little higher."Riggleman said he initially expected around a hundred objections but that “pressure [is] being exerted” on House Republicans – as evidenced by state delegations putting out joint statements vowing to object to the vote.“I would be getting pressure right now,” said Riggleman – who lost renomination to a right-wing challenger in June – adding that the vote to object “keeps their base happy, they know it’ll keep the conference happy and they know it’s not gonna win anyway.”Riggleman said there is “not a whole lot of excitement for that vote” because most of his colleagues don’t believe in the systemic fraud Trump has alleged, echoing Sen. Ben Sasse, who said, “When we talk in private, I haven’t heard a single Congressional Republican allege that the election results were fraudulent – not one."Just one senator has confirmed they will join the effort: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said Wednesday he plans to object because “some states, particularly Pennsylvania, failed to follow their own state election laws” – an argument repeatedly rejected by the court.
Trump at Georgia rally says he hopes Pence 'comes through for us' - President Trump on Monday said he hoped Vice President Pence “comes through for us” as he discussed efforts to overturn the presidential election results, hinting at Pence’s role overseeing the certification of the Electoral College vote count on Wednesday. “I hope that Mike Pence comes through for us, I have to tell you. I hope that our great vice president, our great vice president comes through for us. He’s a great guy,” Trump told a crowd of supporters at a rally in Dalton, Ga. “Of course, if he doesn’t come through, I won’t like him quite as much,” Trump continued. “Nah, Mike is a great guy. He’s a wonderful man and a smart man and a man that I like a lot.” Trump did not articulate what he wants Pence to do. The president’s remarks came during a prolonged commentary on the election, which he insisted that he won “in a landslide” and claimed the election was “rigged” against him. “But he’s going to have a lot to say about it and you know one thing with him, you’re going to get straight shots. He’s going to call it straight,” Trump said.
Eric Trump warns of primary challenges for Republicans who don't object to election results -Eric Trump warned Tuesday that he will boost primary challengers for every Republican lawmaker who does not object to the Electoral College results Wednesday. “I will personally work to defeat every single Republican Senator / Congressman who doesn’t stand up against this fraud - they will be primaried in their next election and they will lose,” Trump tweeted. The threat underscores the divide that has torn through the GOP over Wednesday’s joint session of Congress, during which both chambers are expected to certify the Electoral College’s 306-232 margin for President-elect Joe Biden. Bipartisan majorities in the House and the Senate have said they will certify the results, but as many as 140 House Republicans and at least 13 Senate Republicans have said they will object to the results in Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania. President Trump has also called on Republicans to primary some Republicans who have come out against the objections. The president has specifically focused his ire on Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), calling on South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) to challenge him in 2022 when his term is up. “I hope to see the great Governor of South Dakota @KristiNoem, run against RINO @SenJohnThune, in the upcoming 2022 Primary. She would do a fantastic job in the U.S. Senate, but if not Kristi, others are already lining up. South Dakota wants strong leadership, NOW!” he tweeted, referring to Thune as a Republican in name only.
Pelosi names House Democratic leaders for Electoral College debate -Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) named four lawmakers to serve as the Democratic leaders in the House ahead of the expected debate Wednesday over the Electoral College results. Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues that Reps. Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), Jamie Raskin (Md.), Adam Schiff (Calif.) and Joe Neguse (Colo.) will lead House Democrats after possibly 140 House Republicans and at least 13 Senate Republicans join to object to the Electoral College’s margin of 306-232 for President-elect Joe Biden. The four lawmakers and the Democratic heads of state delegations “have been working on our Democratic presentation of the Constitutional, historical and thematic justification for respecting the will of the people,” Pelosi wrote. “On the Floor of the House, we will have a civics lesson about protecting the integrity of our democracy. Priority to speak has been given to state delegation Members from states that are expected to face a challenge,” she said. Results from Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania are expected to be objected to, though other states could have their results challenged. Congress’s quadrennial certification of the Electoral College results is often a sleepy affair, but it is being thrust into the spotlight this year as President Trump launches a pressure campaign urging GOP lawmakers to object to the results. If at least one House member and one Senate member object to the results, the chambers will split up and debate the objections. While several lawmakers in both chambers are objecting, overwhelming majorities are expected to shoot down the challenges.
Pence told Trump he doesn't have power to block certification of Biden win: report -Vice President Pence has reportedly informed President Trump that he does not have the authority to challenge the results of the 2020 election, despite the president's efforts to protest President-elect Joe Biden's win. Pence told the president Tuesday during their weekly lunch that he does not have the power to block a congressional certification of the Electoral College results, The New York Times reported. The meeting reportedly came hours after Trump falsely claimed on Twitter that the vice president “has the power to reject fraudulently chosen electors.” Trump said at a rally in Georgia the previous night that he hoped Pence would “come through for us” during the Wednesday certification of Biden’s Electoral College win. Trump tore into the report in a statement on Tuesday night, saying it was "fake news" and maintaining that Pence never made the remarks. "The Vice President and I are in total agreement that the Vice President has the power to act," Trump said. “The November 3rd election was corrupt in contested states, and in particular it was not in accordance with the Constitution in that they made large scale changes to election rules and regulations as dictated by local judges and politicians, not by state legislators. This means that it was illegal." Trump said that Pence "has several options," including decertifying results or sending them back to the states.
Trump Slams Pence, Says VP 'Didn't Have The Courage' To Flip Election --As anticipated, Republican lawmakers have begun objecting to the Electoral College vote count, with Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona kicking off a challenge to his home state's tally during Wednesday's joint session - triggering a historic debate in both chambers which will be followed by a vote.Of note, moments before proceedings began, Pence said he has 'no authority to unilaterally determine votes,' and will leave it up to elected officials to make the decision.As anticipated, Republican lawmakers have begun objecting to the Electoral College vote count, with Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona kicking off a challenge to his home state's tally during Wednesday's joint session - triggering a historic debate in both chambers which will be followed by a vote. Vice President Mike Pence asked Gosar if his objection was in writing and if he was joined by a Senator - both required for an official objection, to which Gosar identified Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) - wo then added his objection. Update (1415ET): Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has officially thrown Trump under the bus, saying on a Wednesday statement that the election wasn't stolen, and that overruling voters would 'damage the republic forever.' McConnell added that we can't 'keep drifting apart into separate tribes,' implying that Trump supporters should take their medicine and accept the results of the election. Update (1435ET): President Trump has taken to Twitter to express outrage at Vice President Mike Pence, who earlier in the day said he wouldn't interfere with the results of the 2020 election. “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify," Trump tweeted, adding: "USA demands the truth!"
DC protests live updates: Capitol building breached, Pence evacuated — Chaos erupted in the nation's capital as supporters of President Donald Trump swarmed the Capitol building, prompting Vice President Mike Pence to be swept to a secure location and the Senate chamber to be evacuated.The Associated Press reported that one person was shot and taken to a hospital, and the Pentagon said the Washington, D.C., National Guard has been mobilized to support local law enforcement.Thousands of protesters had gathered at the National Mall earlier to protest the election results. At a rally about an hour before the protesters broke through police lines at the Capitol, Trump had urged them to go to the building."We’re going to try and give our Republicans," he said. "... the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.''Washington Police chief Robert J. Contee III said the rioters headed to Capitol Hill after hearing Trump's remarks, adding: “It was clear that the crowd was intent on causing harm to our officers by deploying chemical irritants on police to force entry into the United States Capitol.”Trump later tweeted asking protesters to "stay peaceful'' and taped a video urging them to go home and advocating for law and order while referring to "a fraudulent election'' that "was stolen from us.'' As Trump's speech concluded, a group of about two dozen people moved in on the U.S. Capitol as debate over certifying the election was taking place inside. Several flash-bang grenades were launched. A stretcher was seen being taken through the crowd as tensions flared. Behind them, a huge throng continued to swell, with a reporter estimating more than 1,000 pushing up against the inauguration stage set up outside the Capitol building. The crowd soon broke through security fencing and breached the building. The Capitol was locked down and Pence was evacuated. Terry Gainer, former chief of the U.S. Capitol Police who also served as the Senate’s sergeant-at arms, described Wednesday’s protests as unprecedented in four decades in law enforcement. “It’s dangerous,” Gainer said. “This is a much more hateful crowd incited by the president himself. It’s definitely something new in our business.”
DNC Headquarters Evacuated; Explosive Device Found At RNC - As the Capitol descends into chaos with people shot and officers wounded, the DNC and RNC are evacuating their offices after an explosive device has reportedly been found at the RNC. The two offices are located just blocks from the capitol, which is currently being overrun by pro-Trump protesters, according to the NYT.An explosive device was found at the headquarters of the Republican National Committee in Washington and the nearby headquarters of the Democratic National Committee was evacuated after the discovery of a suspicious package on Wednesday, according to three people briefed on the discoveries.The device that was found at the R.N.C. was a pipe bomb that was successfully destroyed by a bomb squad, according to an official for the R.N.C.The package at the D.N.C. has yet to be identified, according to a top Democrat briefed on the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly about it.The R.N.C. and D.N.C. are headquartered just a few blocks away from the U.S. Capitol, which Mr. Trump’s supporters stormed on Wednesday afternoon soon as Congress had gathered to certify President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory and shortly after the president addressed the crowd near the White House. This appears to be an escalation as the chaos spills out from the Capitol to the rest of the District. The device found at the RNC was safely detonated.
Washington, D.C. riots spread to other US states - US President Donald Trump's supporters stormed the Kansas Statehouse and the Georgia Capitol on Wednesday after breaching the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. Protestors were moving inside the first floor of Topeka's capitol rotunda, FOX4 News reported, citing eyewitnesses. Capitol police took their place in the building and protestors are remaining peaceful at this time, according to the TV channel. Separately, alleged militia members gathered outside the Georgia Capitol, and State Secretary Brad Raffensperger along with senior staff have been evacuated, according to Washington Post reporter Amy Gardner. Similar protests have been seen in New Mexico, where police reportedly evacuated staff from a Statehouse building as a precaution shortly after hundreds of protestors gathered in front of the building. Videos on social media showed that security forces also intervened to disband Trump supporters and protesters near the Capitol building in Salem, Oregon. Meanwhile, in Denver, Colorado, Mayor Michael Hancock ordered the closure of municipal buildings. "With the activities around the country and approximately 700 individuals downtown who have gathered at the State Capitol, out of an abundance of caution, I have instructed city agencies to close municipal buildings early," Hancock said on Twitter. The US Senate recessed an Electoral College debate after hundreds of angry protestors stormed the Washington, D.C. Capitol building, forcing a lockdown by police. A woman who was shot apparently in the chest at the Capitol building during a mass riot has died. The incident happened an hour after Vice President Mike Pence announced that he rejected Trump's demand that he interfere in Congress's counting of Electoral College votes. The largely pro forma meeting will eventually declare President-elect Joe Biden the winner of the Nov. 3 presidential contest, although it will be significantly dragged out as some Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate have raised objections.
Two top White House officials resign after Capitol violence, more on the way: sources (Reuters) - Two top aides to first lady Melania Trump resigned on Wednesday in the wake of violence on Capitol Hill, and more top White House officials were considering resigning, including national security adviser Robert O’Brien and his deputy, Matthew Pottinger, sources familiar with the matter said. Stephanie Grisham resigned as chief of staff to the first lady after supporters of President Donald Trump violently occupied the U.S. Capitol in an effort to block Congress from certifying the presidential election results. “It has been an honor to serve the country in the White House. I am very proud to have been a part of Mrs. Trump’s mission to help children everywhere, and proud of the many accomplishments of this administration,” Grisham said in a statement. Grisham, who spent a year as White House press secretary before becoming chief of staff to the first lady, did not say whether her resignation was in reaction to the violence in the nation’s capital, but a source familiar with her decision said the violence was the last straw for her. The White House social secretary, Rickie Niceta, also resigned, as did a deputy White House press secretary, Sarah Matthews, two sources told Reuters. O’Brien was also considering resigning, as was Pottinger, the deputy national security adviser who has been a key voice on China policy within the administration, two sources said. “I just spoke with Vice President Pence,” O’Brien said in a statement earlier Wednesday, adding, “I am proud to serve with him.” There was also chatter inside the White House that deputy chief of staff Chris Liddell might resign, a source said. The White House declined to comment. Multiple injuries were reported and one woman was killed in the melee at the Capitol, as Trump supporters responded to the president’s call to protest his loss in November’s presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden. Trump has repeatedly and baselessly claimed the election was marred by fraudulent voting.
At least 6 GOP legislators took part in Trump-inspired protests - At least six Republican state legislators from across the nation participated in events surrounding the attempted insurrection at the United States Capitol on Wednesday. News reports and social media posts showed at least one of the legislators, West Virginia Del. Derrick Evans (R), was among the violent mob that broke into the Capitol building. Evans, who was only recently sworn into office, posted a video of himself entering the building. “We’re gong in,” he says in the video, in which he is wearing a helmet. He later deleted the post. Other Republicans who participated in an earlier rally, in which President Trump incited his supporters to violence, said they had not entered the Capitol building. “Just a whole heck of a lot of patriots here,” Tennessee state Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver (R) told The Tennessean. “We never experienced any violence.” Weaver tweeted an image of the unruly mob at the base of the Capitol’s West Front. Virginia state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) falsely denied that any violence had taken place. Missouri state Rep. Justin Hill (R) skipped his own swearing-in ceremony to attend the rally at the Ellipse. Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) organized a busload of protesters from Chambersburg, Pa., to Washington for the rally. He was later photographed outside the Capitol building, though he said in a video on Facebook he had not participated in the violent clashes Michigan state Rep. Matt Maddock (R) addressed a group of protesters at the Capitol building. His wife Meshawn Maddock, who is running to co-chair the Michigan Republican Party, told the crowd “We never stop fighting.” State capitals have been the scenes of menacing and at times violent protests in recent months, first against restrictions put in place during the coronavirus pandemic and then following President-elect Joe Biden’s victory over Trump. Governors and legislative leaders have been targeted and harassed, events that seemed to presage Wednesday’s violence in Washington, where a noose was erected on the Capitol complex. The FBI broke up a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) last year. On Wednesday, a group of protesters in Salem burned an effigy of Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D), and a group of rioters jumped a fence at Washington’s governor’s mansion in Olympia. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) was moved to a secure location.
Capitol siege: Congress resumes election session after deadly riot – BBC -- Lawmakers have returned to the US Capitol to finish certifying Joe Biden's election victory, hours after Trump supporters stormed the building in a riot that saw four people die.Officials say one woman was shot by police, while three others died as a result of "medical emergencies".The pro-Trump mob stormed the building in a bid to overturn the election result, suspending a Congress session.US President-elect Joe Biden blasted the "insurrection". President Donald Trump, who had urged the demonstrators to march on the Capitol, later called on them to "go home", while continuing to make false claims of electoral fraud.Twitter and Facebook later froze his social media accounts.US Vice-President Mike Pence started the resumed session on Wednesday evening, in which lawmakers are counting and confirming electoral votes, saying it had been a "dark day in the history of the United States Capitol".Some Republicans are raising objections in the session in an effort to overturn the result - a bid that is all but certain to fail. The rampage on Wednesday came as two Democrats won Senate seats in elections in Georgia, which shifted the balance of Congress to their party's effective political control, aiding the passage of Mr Biden's agenda after he is inaugurated on 20 January.Officials say four people died during the storming of the Capitol building.One woman was shot by police, while three others died as a result of unspecified "medical emergencies". Mayor Muriel Bowser said the woman who was shot was part of a group of individuals that forced entry into the House room, which was still in session. They were confronted by plainclothes officers, and an officer pulled out a weapon and fired it, she said. The woman was taken to hospital and proclaimed dead. She has not been officially named, but local media identified her as San Diego-area US Air Force veteran and Trump supporter Ashli Babbit. Officials said the three other deaths included one woman and two men. Further details of how they died have not been made public. At least 14 members of the police were injured during the unrest.
MAGA Cosplayers Seize Capitol While Cops Flounder Yves Smith - Calibrating the seriousness of the short-lived occupation of the Capitol by Trump-pumped fanboys is made difficult by the headline elements. A departing President calling for a march on the legislature in a last-ditch effort to stop his electoral loss from being certified. Members of Congress photographed cowering in front of their seats before fleeing to safety. Rioters storming the Capitol, breaking Capitol windows, looting. The ITV video below gives a good feel for the storming of the building:I’m old enough to remember the demonstrations and bombings of the Vietnam War era. Even so, the spectacle of the Capitol occupied and Congressmen in flight is viscerally offensive, like watching someone piss on an altar or tear up a Koran. And yet, and yet….This was no Vietnam-level rioting. This wasn’t even a serious occupation, which one would think was the point, to keep Congress from executing the final ratification of the Biden win. Could you image the spectacle of democracy chastened if the Trump mob had held the Capitol and forced Congress to scramble find a hotel ballroom in which to finish their official business?Nope, Congress was back in business by 8:00 PM, roughly seven hours after the barbarians stormed the walls, albeit with pretty much everyone badly rattled and some Trump supporters rapidly backpedaling from their former positions. Despite the gravity of the event, if you look not very hard at what happened, both sides in their different ways were shambolic. Even though the mainstream press has been talking up the prospect of a Trump coup even before his electoral loss, this insurrection was impulsive. Trump gave an hour-long speech where he repeatedly exhorted the crowd to march to the Capitol and “stop the steal”. As ugly and embarrassing as the Capitol seizure was, it did not begin to rise to the level of a coup (read the Wikipedia bio of Sukarno or the review of this book focused on the coup that removed him from office and see the contrast). There wasn’t a serious or even half-hearted effort to seize critical infrastructure, control communication (no classic suspension of news broadcasts or launch of insurrectionist pronouncements), terrorize the population through executions or other shows of force, or purges of opposed faction members. The reporting is still spotty, but it appears only the RNC, and not the DNC, was on the receiving end of a pipe bomb.Now before you say, “No wonder the cops were overwhelmed,” go have a look at other shots of the Capitol. Pretty much any other shots. It sits on a steep hill, with some large intermediate terraces on the way up to the entry. This is an exceptionally easy building to defend. Think water cannons deployed from above on the protestors. And its not as if the protestors were hardbodied skinheads carrying bludgeons and sporting brass knuckles: No evidence of gun carrying, certainly no photos of any brandished or shots from them. The only reports Lambert and I have seen of gunfire (aside from the protestor who was shot and died) is from this Bloomberg account, towards the very end, and it attributes semi-automatic fire to the police. So why were the police so utterly unprepared? Several theories are plausible, and they are not mutually exclusive.
Figures Show Stark Difference Between Arrests At D.C. Black Lives Matter Protest And Arrests At Capitol Hill -- Data on unrest-related arrests from Washington D.C. Metropolitan police highlight the stark differences between authorities cracking down on racial justice protests last summer and an underwhelming law enforcement response to Wednesday's insurrection on Capitol Hill, after commentators drew comparisonsbetween police response. 14,000. That's the estimated number of arrests made across 49 U.S. cities during anti-racism protests last summer, according to the Washington Post. The Capitol was put on lockdown Tuesday after hundreds of Trump supporters broke through police lines and stormed the building, disrupting the Electoral College certification process and forcing the nation’s lawmakers to flee or take shelter. Trump has come under fire for encouraging crowds to head to the Capitol, inflaming tensions with another rally peddling baseless claims about voter fraud. According to authorities, four people died in or around Capitol grounds, including a woman shot who later died in hospital, and the city’s mayor has extended a public emergency for 15 days. “Suspicious devices” were reportedly found at the Republican National Committee headquarters, which the FBI says it has now neutralized. Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-Oh.), a Democrat from Ohio, said it was “no question… (that) there is a double standard” between how police treated Black Lives Matters protesters last summer and the pro-Trump supporters this week. At least six people were arrested in Washington D.C. Tuesday as Trump supporters flocked to the capital.
Brian Sicknick: Federal murder investigation to be opened in Capitol Police officer's death - Prosecutors in the US Attorney's office plan to open a federal murder investigation into the death of Brian D. Sicknick, a US Capitol Police officer who died Thursday night, a law enforcement official tells CNN.Sicknick was injured Wednesday when a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters stormed the US Capitol. He died at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET Thursday "due to injuries sustained while on-duty," Capitol Police officials said in a statement.The death is being investigated by the DC Metropolitan Police Department's homicide branch, the US Capitol Police and their federal partners. "Officer Sicknick was responding to the riots on Wednesday, January 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol and was injured while physically engaging with protesters. He returned to his division office and collapsed. He was taken to a local hospital where he succumbed to his injuries," the statement read. Sicknick had joined the Capitol Police in July 2008, and most recently served in the department's First Responders Unit. Sicknick is the fifth person to die as a result of Wednesday's insurrection. One woman was shot and killed by Capitol Police as the crowd breached the building and three others suffered medical emergencies that proved fatal.
Majority of Americans want Trump removed immediately after U.S. Capitol violence - Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters) - Fifty-seven percent of Americans want Republican President Donald Trump to be immediately removed from office after he encouraged a protest this week that escalated into a deadly riot inside the U.S. Capitol, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Most of them were Democrats, however, with Republicans apparently much more supportive of Trump serving out the final days of his term, which ends on Jan. 20. The national public opinion survey, conducted Thursday and Friday, also showed that seven out of 10 of those who voted for Trump in November opposed the action of the hardcore supporters who broke into the Capitol while lawmakers were meeting to certify the election victory of Democrat Joe Biden. Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed also said they disapprove of Trump’s actions in the run-up to Wednesday’s assault. At a rally earlier in the day, Trump had exhorted thousands of his followers to march to the Capitol. The chaos on Capitol Hill, in which a police officer and four others died, has been widely condemned by both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats in the House of Representatives plan to introduce misconduct charges on Monday that could lead to a second impeachment of Trump, two sources familiar with the matter said. “If the President does not leave office imminently and willingly, the Congress will proceed with our action,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement.
The Aryan Nation revolution will be televised - Roger Gathmann - Blow after blow, the Trumpkins must be coming down from their high. First "Mr. Trump", as the NYT has taken to calling him - which is a sign that he really is expelled from the country club - made a video in which he said his beloved Patriots were naughty naughty to try to take over the capitol and burn the electoral college ballots. Apparently, his aides said he could be prosecuted. Then the WSJ editorial board, which is close to God - that is, the God of the Right, Rupert Murdoch - said Trump should be impeached. A rare conjunction of AOC and the WSJ! So, shockingly, the fallback story that this was just an antifa false flag is shredded from the top, although I'd guess 90 percent of Trumpsters will soon be assuring all and sundry that the Capitol takeover was a Democratic Party plot. Then it appears the "protestors", as the NYT persistently calls the Aryan Nation gang that took over the Capitol, did kill a cop. On the plus side, we know that the hearts of every police union president in America is with the Aryan nation and their preznit. So, same as it ever was.
Trump’s “Patriots” Disgrace U.S. on Front Pages Across Five Continents -- By Pam Martens - (photos) There is growing anger in America today as the public has time to digest the violent video footage of Trump’s citizen militia storming the Capital building yesterday. According to the Washington, D.C. Police Chief, Robert Contee, four people died during the melee, one woman from a gunshot wound inside the Capital building and three others from “medical emergencies.” Contee also reported that at least 56 police officers were injured. As questions grow as to why the Capitol Police were not adequately prepared for the invasion, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy announced at a news conference today that the military is erecting a seven-foot, non-scalable fence around the full perimeter of the Capitol. McCarthy also announced that 6,200 National Guard troops from Washington, D.C. and six states will be deployed to the area. McCarthy said these security measures will be in place for “no less than the next 30 days.” It is also becoming clear today that the rioters that Trump said he loved and called “patriots” have heaped disgrace on the United States on the front pages of newspapers around the world. The Edmonton Sun in Canada called it an “Attack on Democracy.” Front pages of newspapers throughout Europe led with the attack on the U.S. Capital, with most noting that Trump had incited the attack. The Het Nieuwsblad in Belgium captioned a large front page photo of invaders inside the Capital with “Trump supporters storm capitol after inflammatory speech.” Brazil’s Folha De S. Paulo led with the headline: “Inflated by Trump, crowd invades and vandalizes Congress.” Germany’s Hamburger Morgenpost carried a full front page photo of the Trump rioter wearing a headdress of fur pelts and horns with a headline calling attention to the fact that U.S. politicians had to escape an invasion. Le Figaro in France put it simply: Democracy Fractured. Switzerland’s 24 Heures filled their front page with a photo of plainclothes Capitol Police with guns drawn as rioters stormed a barricaded door to Congressional chambers. Their headline calls it an “insurrection.” There are now growing calls for Trump to be removed from office immediately, including calls from some Republicans, by invoking the 25th Amendment to the Constitution.
While All Eyes Were On Washington, Daily Coronavirus Deaths Set Another Record - WHILE turmoil enveloped the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, the coronavirus was claiming more American lives in one day than ever before.Data from Johns Hopkins University showed that 3,865 people died on Wednesday, breaking a record set just a day earlier. The death toll in the U.S. exceeds 362,000, and experts expect it to get worse following holiday season travel.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday updated its death forecast to predict that mortalities could grow to 438,000 before the end of January. If that number plays out, the U.S. could lose roughly 76,000 more lives to the virus in the next roughly three weeks.New York, Texas, California and Florida report the highest death tolls. They also report the highest infection numbers.But deaths and cases are increasing almost everywhere, and concern is mounting over a new variant that is likely more transmissible. At least 52 cases of the strain first identified in the U.K. have been reported in the U.S., according to data posted Wednesday by the CDC. Some hospitals are growing overwhelmed, with a record 132,476 patients currently admitted with the virus across the country.
Sasse says Trump was 'delighted' and 'excited' by reports of Capitol riot --Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) said Friday that he heard from senior White House officials that President Trump was "delighted" to hear that his supporters were breaking into the Capitol building in a riot Wednesday that turned deadly. “As this was unfolding on television, Donald Trump was walking around the White House confused about why other people on his team weren’t as excited as he was as you had rioters pushing against Capitol Police trying to get into the building,” Sasse told conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview. “That was happening. He was delighted.” “I’m sure you’ve also had conversations with other senior White House officials, as I have,” Sasse told Hewitt. The Nebraska Republican, who has at times been more critical of Trump than many of his GOP colleagues, did not name which officials said Trump was delighted. On Thursday night, more than 24 hours after the attack on the Capitol, Trump condemned the riot in a video message. When asked by Hewitt if Trump should be removed from office before his term ends on Jan. 20, Sasse said he first wanted to know why the National Guard wasn’t sent in to handle the riot. At least five people have died as a result of the attack on the Capitol. Sasse has pushed back on Trump's unsubstantiated claims of a "rigged" election and widespread voter fraud. He's also said Trump's repeated remarks on the matter played a role in sparking Wednesday's mob violence at the Capitol.
Trump not allowed into Scotland to escape Biden inauguration, Sturgeon warns - Donald Trump will not be allowed to visit Scotland to play golf during Joe Biden's inauguration, Nicola Sturgeon has said. The US president, who was overwhelmingly defeated in November's election, is reportedly considering travelling to his Turnberry golf resort to avoid Mr Biden being sworn into office. But Scotland's first minister stressed it is illegal to travel in or out of the country without a valid reason and said: "Coming to play golf is not what I would consider to be an essential purpose." The White House has repeatedly refused to say what the outgoing president will do when Mr Biden is inaugurated on 20 January, prompting speculation about whether Mr Trump will attend the ceremony. But Prestwick Airport has been told to expect the arrival of a US military Boeing 757 aircraft previously used by Mr Trump on 19 January, according to the Sunday Post. Asked about speculation that Mr Trump could travel to Scotland in order to avoid the inauguration, Ms Sturgeon said: "I have no idea what Donald Trump's travel plans are, you'll be glad to know. "I hope and expect that – as everybody expects, not everybody necessarily will hope – that the travel plan immediately that he has is to exit the White House. "But beyond that I don't know. "We are not allowing people to come in to Scotland without an essential purpose right now and that would apply to him, just as it applies to anybody else.
Death and Mayhem Inside the Capitol Building and the Stock Market Gains 437.8 Points. Why? - By Pam Martens - As a violent mob of Trump’s citizen militia scaled walls, broke windows and seized control of the Capitol building yesterday around 2 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new intraday high of 31,022.65. It gave up very little by the 4 p.m. close, gaining 437.8 points on the day.The Trump operatives were attempting to stop Congress from confirming President-elect Joe Biden’s electoral win. Dressed in paramilitary clothing or jeans and red MAGA hats, the mob overpowered the Capitol Police inside and outside the building, gaining access to both Senate and House chambers and lawmaker offices, including the office of the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. Jamie Stiehm, a US political columnist, was inside the Capitol building and reported the following for the BBC: “As we went into the second hour, all of a sudden we heard breaking glass. The air began getting fogged. An announcement from the Capitol Police said, ‘An individual has breached the building.’ So everyone looked around and then it was business as usual. But after that, the announcements kept coming. And they were getting more and more urgent…The police didn’t seem to know what was happening. They weren’t coordinated. They locked the chamber doors but at the same time, they told us we would have to evacuate. So there was a sense of panic…There was a sense of ‘nobody’s in charge here, the Capitol Police have lost control of the building, anything can happen.’ ” An excellent report by Emilie Munson for Hearst Newspapers on how House Reps, Senators and press were eventually evacuated by Capitol Police through tunnels is provided here. Grisly images of the mayhem at the Capitol are available at Bloomberg News here. According to CNBC, four people were left dead as a result of the riots. CNBC also reported that “At least fourteen police officers sustained injuries with multiple [officers] still in the hospital.” One officer, whose photo of being assaulted by the mob is included in the link to Bloomberg photos above, sustained serious injuries. While all of this mayhem and insurrection played out on television screens around the world, and world leaders were forced to confront the possibility that there would not be a peaceful transition to a new President in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average yawned at the chaos. This is certainly not a normal reaction for the U.S. stock market, especially since it’s already in bubble territory. There was the distinct impression among market watchers that an invisible hand was once again intervening to prevent a crash in the market as the violent events unfolded. Thoughts turned immediately to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s Exchange Stabilization Fund which, under the law (31 U.S.C. §5302) “may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary.” Conveniently, the Exchange Stabilization Fund has grown from $94.3 billion in assets prior to Trump taking office to $682 billion as of September 30, 2020.
World's richest people added $1.8T to their combined wealth in 2020 - The world’s 500 richest people added approximately $1.8 trillion to their combined wealth in 2020, bringing them to a total net worth of $7.6 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Bloomberg noted that the 31 percent increase, which came even amid the economic crisis spurred by the coronavirus pandemic, is the largest annual gain in the index’s eight-year history. The growth mainly reached those at the very top, where five people now each hold more than $100 billion, with another 20 individuals each worth at least $50 billion. At the top of Bloomberg’s index is Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos with approximately $190 billion. The tech company profited highly amid the pandemic as lockdowns and health restrictions forced more people to turn to online shopping. Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk saw the greatest wealth increase in 2020, which Bloomberg reported was potentially the fastest wealth creation in history. Now worth $170 billion, Musk first surpassed Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates for the title of second-richest person in the world in November. Musk’s increase in wealth was largely driven by Tesla, which as of Saturday has a market value of nearly $670 billion. About three-fourths of Musk’s net worth is made up of Tesla shares. Bloomberg reported that, combined, Bezos and Musk had an increase in wealth of about $217 billion in 12 months, which is roughly enough to send $2,000 checks to more than 100 million Americans. Gates now takes the third spot with a total net worth of about $132 billion, while Bernard Arnault, chairman and CEO of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, holds fourth place with $114 billion. Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg is the fifth-richest person in the world with a net worth of about $104 billion.
Corporate group urges officials consider Trump's removal 'to preserve democracy' (Reuters) - The head of a major U.S. business group that represents 14,000 companies including Exxon Mobil Corp, Pfizer Inc and Toyota Motor Corp urged senior U.S. officials to consider removing President Donald Trump from office after supporters of the outgoing president stormed the U.S. Capitol. National Association of Manufacturers Chief Executive Jay Timmons said Trump “incited violence in an attempt to retain power, and any elected leader defending him is violating their oath to the Constitution and rejecting democracy in favor of anarchy. ... Vice President (Mike) Pence, who was evacuated from the Capitol, should seriously consider working with the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to preserve democracy.” Trump has 14 days remaining in office before President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on Jan. 20. The mayhem at the Capitol forced Congress to temporarily postpone a session to certify Biden’s victory. The chaotic scenes unfolded after Trump, who before the election refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he lost, addressed thousands of supporters near the White House, repeating unfounded claims that the election was stolen from him due to widespread fraud and irregularities. Other business groups issued strong statements but did not go as far as the manufacturers’ group. Under the amendment’s Section 4, never invoked, the vice president and a majority of either Cabinet officials or “such other body as Congress may by law provide” may declare in writing that the president “is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” Several Democratic lawmakers in Congress also urged Pence and the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump. The Business Roundtable, an association of chief executives of some of America’s biggest companies, said that “the chaos unfolding in the nation’s capital is the result of unlawful efforts to overturn the legitimate results of a democratic election.” They called on Trump “and all relevant officials to put an end to the chaos and to facilitate the peaceful transition of power,” the group said in a statement.
Google suspends Parler social networking app from Play Store; Apple gives 24-hour warning (Reuters) - Alphabet Inc’s Google on Friday suspended the Parler social networking service from its app store, citing posts inciting violence and demanding “robust” content moderation from the app favored by many supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump. Apple Inc on Friday also gave the service 24 hours to submit a detailed moderation plan, pointing to participants using the service to coordinate Wednesday’s siege of the U.S. Capitol building. The actions by the two Silicon Valley companies mean that the network seen as a haven for people expelled from Twitter could become unavailable for new downloads on the world’s main mobile phone app stores within a day. It would still be available in mobile browsers. Right-leaning social media users in the United States have flocked to Parler, messaging app Telegram and hands-off social site Gab, citing the more aggressive policing of political comments on mainstream platforms such as Twitter Inc and Facebook Inc. Twitter permanently suspended President Trump’s account on Friday. In suspending the service, Google, whose software powers Android phones, cited its policy against apps that promote violence and gave recent examples from Parler, including a Friday post that began “How do we take back our country? About 20 or so coordinated hits” and another promoting a “Million Militia March” on Washington. Parler Chief Executive John Matze said in a post on Friday that Apple was applying standards to Parler that it did not apply to itself.M
Twitter deletes new Trump tweets on @POTUS, suspends campaign account (Reuters) - Twitter Inc on Friday deleted new tweets posted by U.S. President Donald Trump on official government account @POTUS and suspended the account of his presidential campaign, after booting his personal account off the platform permanently. Trump tweeted “We will not be SILENCED!” from the @POTUS government account, with 33.4 million followers. Twitter had permanently suspended the president’s go-to megaphone, his @realDonaldTrump personal account, hours earlier. The company said accounts used by Trump to try to get around the ban could face permanent suspension as well under its “ban evasion” policies. “Twitter is not about FREE SPEECH,” Trump wrote in the now-deleted tweets, adding that he is considering building his own social media platform in the near future. Twitter shut down his @TeamTrump campaign account shortly after it sent out a tweet with a “statement from President Trump” accusing Twitter of “banning free speech” and coordinating with “the Democrats and the Radical Left” to silence him. The account shortly before that had pointed its 2.3 million followers to its account on Parler, which is popular with conservatives for its hands-off approach to content moderation. Alphabet Inc’s Google suspended Parler on Friday, citing posts inciting violence, while Apple Inc gave the service 24 hours to submit a detailed moderation plan.
Google Rigged Its Own Advertising Auction In Favor of Facebook for a Price (and What That Means for the So-Called Free Market) - Two days before New Year’s, The Wall Street Journal released the following story, “Inside the Google-Facebook Ad Deal at the Heart of a Price-Fixing Lawsuit,” which I think should have been a blockbuster, but wasn’t, possibly because of the holidays, possiblly because everybody already thinks they’re both crooks. In this brief post, I’ll first extract the key points of the case, and then consider what Google’s actions imply for the idea that we live in a “free market” society.Before we look at the story, we need to understand a little about how Google ads are sold to buyers. (Naturally, I searched on Google for this, and was greeted with six pages of material from Google itself, interspersed with marketing from SEO firms. Not one academic[1] or journalistic explanation. Good job.) The best description of the algorithm I could find was this (2012) course description from Cornell. From my scan of the marketing literature, the same basic procedure is used today:The way Google’s auction works is similar to a second price sealed-bid auction. Each time a user searches for a word or phrase, Google saves the data and groups the keywords by relevance. Advertisers associate advertisements with various keywords. Google then matches the keywords from internet users with keywords associated with the advertisements and auctions the advertisement slot to multiple advertisers. The ad rank of each advertisement is calculated based on the maximum bid the advertiser makes for the ad and the quality score. Quality score is a metric determined by multiple components of the advertisement. The product of those is the ad rank. The advertiser with the highest ad rank wins the auction and will have their ad displayed on Google’s website for specific internet users whose search queries match the advertisement’s keywords. However, the price that advertiser pays is not the advertiser’s maximum bid price, rather, it is the minimum amount the advertiser can pay to win the ad auction. In other words, the lowest amount the advertiser can pay to outbid the next highest bid. The price is calculated by the ad rank of the person below the highest bidder divided by the highest bidder’s quality score plus 0.01.This type of advertisement auction is essentially the second price sealed-bid auction. The auction is a sealed-bid auction because advertisers do not know what other advertisers are bidding. The Journal provides a diagram of all the auction players:
Instagram - Harvesting Your Personal Information - In late December 2020, Instagram, a photo and video sharing social networking service wholly owned by Facebook, released an update to its Terms of Use. Most of us mindlessly click "accept" on these wordy, mind numbingly boring legal agreements without thinking about the potential repercussions, particularly to our privacy. As we know from years of experience with Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg simply cannot learn enough about our personal lives as part of his mandate to further enrich himself by supersaturating us with advertising as you will see. Here is a link to the latest version of Facebook's Terms of Use (ToS) for Instagram. Let's look at one interesting aspect of Instagram's ToS that you probably weren't aware of: Any content that you post on Instagram is essentially owned by Instagram (no matter what they may say) until you delete it from their service. You are granting them a free licence to copy, distribute or modify your content which can also be transferred to another "owner" without your express permission.You will notice that Instagram refers to its "Data Policy" which you have to click on to access. Let's look at what is hidden in its key moneymaking machine. Instagram collects the following types of information from its account users, remembering that the information that users give the company can be stored anywhere in the world:
- 1.) content and communications including the location and date that a photo was taken (i.e. metadata) and can also see what you see when you use Instagram's camera feature to take a photo:
- 2.) information about the people, accounts and groups that you interact with across Facebook's products, your contact information if you choose to upload, sync or import it (i.e. your address book) as well as your call log and SMS log history (i.e. text messages):But, it is most reassuring to know that Instagram only uses this information to help you and others find people that you may know!
- 3.) your credit and debit card numbers and other card information if you use Facebook's products to make a purchase or complete other financial transactions:
- 4.) information about your computer, phone, connected televisions or other web-connected devices keeping in mind that all of this is being done to "better personalize the content (including ads) or features that you see when you use Instagram:
This information that users give to Instagram includes the device's operating system, hardware and software versions, battery level, signal strength, available storage type, browser type, file names and plugins, mouse movements and whether a window is in the foreground or background. Instagram also collects information from your device signals including Bluetooth, information about nearby Wi-FI\i access points, beacons and cell towers as well as your GPS locations. They also collect the name of your mobile operator or Internet Service Provider, language, time zone, mobile phone number, connection speed and information about other devices that are nearby or on your network. What I found most interesting is that Instagram also collects identifiers which include identifiers from games that you play on your device, apps that are loaded on your device and accounts that you use. While they don't explicitly state this, one wonders if they know who you bank with and any other accounts that you sign into from your device.Here is the complete list of information that Instagram harvests:
CFPB, OCC leaders condemn Capitol riot — Two federal bank regulators condemned the riot at the U.S. Capitol Wednesday that was incited by President Trump. In messages to the staffs of their respective agencies, acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger each denounced the violence perpetrated by the president’s supporters, who had overwhelmed local law enforcement and breached the Capitol building as lawmakers met to certify the results of the 2020 election. “Yesterday, we witnessed one of the ugliest moments in recent history,” Brooks said in a memo to staff of the OCC sent Thursday morning. “Violence and wanton lawlessness cannot be condoned.” “This is clearly an act of domestic terrorism and violence that is reprehensible,” Kraninger wrote in her own memo to CFPB staff Wednesday evening. “I imagine I speak for all of us in saying I never could have imagined seeing the events earlier today at the U.S. Capitol.” Brooks and Kraninger each stressed that the week’s events would not interfere with their agencies’ work. The CFPB's staff was already under a “mandatory telework posture” on Wednesday, Kraninger wrote in the memo, which was obtained by American Banker. That order was extended through Thursday, she wrote. “My thoughts and prayers are with law enforcement and others in public service who continue to perform their duties and keep all of us safe,” Kraninger said. Brooks added, “In the midst of the current unrest, OCC leadership and staff remain on the job.” “We do so not because we condone the events of the past 24 hours but because our agency’s mission is an apolitical one on which millions of Americans depend,” Brooks wrote. “We continue to focus on ensuring the federal banking system operates in a safe, sound, and fair manner, uninterrupted by election results, natural disasters, or global conflict.”
PayPal blocks group that helped Trump supporters travel to D.C - PayPal Holdings closed an account held by Joy In Liberty, one of the groups that paid for supporters of President Trump to travel to Washington, where mobs stormed the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. The account was shut because it violated PayPal’s acceptable-use policy, according to an emailed statement Thursday. “PayPal carefully reviews accounts to ensure our services are used in line with our long-standing policy,” the company said. “We do not allow PayPal services to be used to promote hate, violence or other forms of intolerance.” The move came after hordes of Trump supporters broke through police lines and into the Capitol, interrupting congressional debates over the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College votes and forcing lawmakers into hiding. Joy In Liberty shared stories on its website of people who used funds the group raised to travel to the U.S. capital this week, saying it has provided more than $30,000 “to deserving patriots.” The website also offers tools to research the QAnon conspiracy theory, which claims that Trump is battling a deep state ring of child-sex traffickers. Joy In Liberty didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. PayPal Chief Executive Dan Schulman called Wednesday’s events “disturbing” in an earlier statement, saying it violated “the very foundation” of American democracy. “Now, more than ever, we need to foster an environment of inclusion and healing, where we listen to each other, respect each other and keep our country as a beacon for democracy,” Schulman said.
Credit union-backed lawmakers among those contesting election - The rhetoric over the 2020 presidential election could come to a head Wednesday, with some high-profile credit union backers playing a key role. A group of about 150 Republican members of Congress, including several who received financial support from the industry, plan to object during Wednesday’s counting of electoral votes. President Trump’s supporters continue to claim that fraudulent activity swung the election to former Vice President Joe Biden, though no proof of wrongdoing has emerged since the Nov. 3 contest. Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., have been seen as ringleaders of two different efforts to challenge the election's results. While these efforts have supporters, observers across the political spectrum have also criticized those plans as anti-democratic and seditious. The pushback has raised questions for donors — including credit unions and industry groups — who support the lawmakers planning to contest the election result. “You want to say to [credit union political action committees], ‘Where are your standards?’ ” said one industry figure, who asked to speak anonymously. “Are your standards just that you will talk nice about credit unions? Is that the only standard you’ve got? Because you could be someone who doesn’t believe in racial equity, in income equality, in gender equality, but if you speak nicely about credit unions, we’ll cut you a check. That’s a question somebody has to pose: Are there parameters?” The person added that the challenge flies in the face of an industry steeped in democratic traditions. “It’s a small-D democratic principle that credit unions follow that isn’t being followed" at the congressional level, the observer said. The Credit Union National Association, through its political action committee, the Credit Union Legislative Action Council, is by far the industry’s largest political contributor. The organization and its PAC spent more than $7 million to support “credit union champions” in 2020, including more than $3 million in independent expenditures to support 11 incumbents from both parties. In recent years, CULAC has made tens of thousands of dollars in donations to lawmakers who have signaled they will object to the election results, including Hawley, Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., and Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., according to data from the Federal Election Commission. In the case of Daines, CUNA spent additional money creating ads to support his 2020 reelection bid. He won with about 55% of the vote over his Democratic challenger Steve Bullock, who was Montana's governor at the time. None of the other Republicans CUNA supported with independent expenditures, including Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, have announced plans to contest the electoral result. The trade association defended its backing of Daines and others, noting that it focuses on issues important to the industry. Still, organizations face the potential for reputational risk as a result of their political donations, sources said. For one, employee activism has risen in recent years. An employer could risk alienating workers if donations don’t align with the core values of the organization.
U.S. bankruptcy filings hit 35-year low thanks to government pandemic aid (Reuters) - U.S. bankruptcy filings for 2020 hit their lowest level since 1986 as a flood of government support programs offset at least temporarily the full brunt of the coronavirus pandemic and a related recession, Epiq AACER reported on Friday. The firm’s compilation of bankruptcy cases showed the Chapter 11 filings used to reorganize larger businesses still jumped 29% in 2020 to 7,128, compared to 5,158 in 2019, a tally that included major retailers like J.C. Penney driven under by the biggest economic downturn in a century. But overall filings, including all personal and other business bankruptcies, for the year were 529,068, compared to nearly 800,000 annually in recent years, and triple that in 2010 at the end of the last recession. The low level of bankruptcies has been one of the more perplexing dynamics of a pandemic era that has seen millions of jobs destroyed, record numbers of people collecting unemployment insurance, and small businesses forced to close to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Government unemployment insurance, business loans and other programs ended up replacing much of that lost income, pushing savings to record levels and keeping households and businesses afloat -- at least for now. A further $900 billion recently approved by Congress may continue to push a full reckoning down the road. But Epiq AACER Senior Vice President Chris Kruse said in a press release he expects household and other non-commercial filings “to grow substantially in the second half of 2021,” as government programs end and debts from the last few months come due. Though many households used government stimulus or increased unemployment benefits to pay down debts, for example, others are wracking up obligation by delaying rent and mortgage payments.
Senate override of Trump veto clears way for shell-company reform — Legislation to relieve banks of beneficial-ownership requirements cleared its final hurdle to enactment after the Senate voted to override President Trump’s veto of a defense spending bill.The Corporate Transparency Act requires companies at incorporation to report their true owners to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to combat money-laundering risks from anonymous shell companies.The bill eases the reporting requirements for banks, which up to now have been required to identify the beneficial owners of their commercial clients and send the information to Fincen. The banking industry had pushed for the shell-company restrictions as a key reform in the nation’s anti-money-laundering framework.Lawmakers had included the beneficial-ownership measure in the broader National Defense Authorization Act, which passed both chambers of Congress by wide margins. But the legislative package faced a sudden obstacle after Trump vetoed the entire defense bill, due to its lack of restrictions for social media companies.After the House voted last week to override the veto, the Senate finally followed suit on Friday, voting by a margin of 81-13 to enact the bill with the beneficial ownership provision.
IRS blesses tax breaks on forgiven PPP loans after law change - The U.S. Internal Revenue Service will allow businesses that got their Paycheck Protection Program loans forgiven to write off expenses paid for with that money, shifting policy after Congress passed new legislation last month. IRS guidance issued on Wednesday overrides previous rules that recipients of PPP loans that had been forgiven couldn’t claim deductions for the wages, rent, utilities and other expenses covered by the loans. The change came after a bipartisan move in Congress to clarify that business owners should be eligible for those tax breaks. The recent stimulus legislation updated the CARES Act passed in March to “say that no deduction is denied, no tax attribute is reduced, and no basis increase is denied by reason of the exclusion from gross income of the forgiveness of an eligible recipient’s covered loan,” the IRS said in a statement. The change is widely regarded as a victory for small businesses, which can use tax-free money to generate more breaks, something that’s typically prohibited under the tax code. Lawmakers said allowing the deductions was necessary to keep small businesses afloat amid waves of restrictions and weakened consumer spending resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Some firms could pay a negative tax rate on their PPP money — meaning the tax benefits outweigh the amount of their loan. For business owners paying the top tax rate, it generally means they could save as much as $37 on their taxes for every $100 of tax-free PPP money they received. The new guidance from the IRS stretches the money received from the government even further, said Lisa Zarlenga, a partner at the law firm Steptoe & Johnson. “The PPP loan proceeds are free, if they’re forgiven, effectively — so it’s it’s a good benefit,” Zarlenga said. Many small businesses expected to be able to claim the deductions based on the original Cares Act language, said Andrew Gibson, a managing partner at the accounting firm BDO. Lawmakers made it clear that their intent was for companies to claim the deductions after the IRS said that they wouldn’t allow the tax breaks, he said. But IRS officials said they couldn’t update their guidance based on intent — they needed a law change, so the issue sat unresolved for months until it was included in the December stimulus legislation.
More incentives for smaller lenders in next PPP round - Lenders now have more clarity in advance of the Paycheck Protection Program's reopening. The Small Business Administration released new guidance for PPP late Wednesday, putting considerable emphasis on helping smaller lenders and borrowers. The new version of the program, which received $285 billion in funds from the most recent stimulus package for new and existing PPP borrowers, is expected to begin next week. The SBA, which is administering the program with the Treasury Department, will grant community development financial institutions and minority depository institutions exclusive access to the PPP portal for at least the first two days. It said that through its online Lender Match tool it plans to connect borrowers to “small lenders who can aid traditionally underserved communities," and that its portal will have dedicated hours to assist the “smallest PPP lenders.” A big reason for the guidance is to help "ensure increased access to PPP for minority, underserved, veteran, and women-owned business concerns," the agency said. An interim final rule issued by the SBA increased the lender fees for loans of less than $50,000 by removing the 5% cap that existed previously — a move aimed at incentivizing lenders to work with smaller borrowers. The window to have loans approved is set to close on March 31. Loans made this time around have five-year maturities. The program sets aside $15 billion for lenders with less than $1 billion of assets and another $15 billion for those with less than $10 billion of assets. The SBA also included an optional demographic reporting section on the borrower application, noting that it wants lenders to encourage borrowers to fill it out to improve “efforts to reach underserved, minority-owned, veteran-owned and women-owned businesses.”
Uncertainty looms over PPP's relaunch - Lenders, while generally supportive of the Small Business Administration’s restart of the Paycheck Protection Program, have a number of unanswered questions about how it will operate. The SBA, which issued more than 120 pages of rules and guidance late Wednesday, is getting high marks for prioritizing underserved and marginalized groups. But concerns remain over the application process, particularly for existing PPP participants seeking a second loan, and verifying that a borrower qualifies. “The biggest unknown right now how will applications will be submitted,” said Mark Marionneaux, CEO of Bank of Zachary, a $299 million-asset community development financial institution in Louisiana. “There seems to be some chatter that there will be a different application portal this time around … similar to the forgiveness portal,” Marionneaux added. “Will second-draw loans use a different portal from new loans, or will they both be on a new portal?” "We have some unknowns still," said Chris Albrecht, director of SBA at Sunrise Banks, a $1.4 billion-asset CDFI in St. Paul, Minn. "We have yet to see an application and have yet to get confirmation on what the portal will look like. But we’re working diligently to make sure we’re prepared." An SBA spokesman said Friday that "all indications" are that lenders will use the agency's E-Tran platform to process applications and that a standard form was made available for download earlier this week. The SBA will start accepting new applications on Monday and requests for second draws two days later. CDFIs and minority depository institutions — which senior government officials said make up about a tenth of all participating PPP lenders — will have an exclusive two-day window to process new PPP applications on Monday. While other lenders might be added on Wednesday, there is a possibility that the SBA will extend the exclusivity period for CDFIs and minority depository institutions. The goal is to process more applications for minority- and women-owned businesses, among other groups overlooked during the PPP’s initial phase. Though the inclusionary effort was well received, lenders are still waiting on the application forms.
We Are the Main Event- ON DECEMBER 21, Congress finally passed a $900 billion Covid-19 relief bill that had laboriously heaved itself through a thicket of partisan ratfucking. While it fell far short of what’s actually needed to help alleviate the widespread suffering that the government’s botched response to the pandemic has inflicted upon the population, there were a few bright spots to be gleaned from its thousands of overstuffed pages. For one, the extension of the Payroll Support Program will provide funds to pay furloughed flight attendants, reservations agents, and pilots for several more months, and provide back pay to those who have been left in the lurch since October. Sara Nelson, international president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, has heralded this as a much-needed win and is particularly proud of the terms that she and her members set. The deal isn’t perfect—she points to the loss of overtime hours, which means that workers will be making a bare minimum—but it’s a badly needed safety net for the thousands of members she represents, over thirty thousand of whom were furloughed when the program initially expired in September. Unlike the broader Payroll Protection Plan, whose funds have been siphoned off every which way by various government officials and Trump lackeys, the PSP money has plenty of strings attached; among other stipulations, it can only be used for worker pay and benefits, furloughs and separations are prohibited, reductions to worker hourly rates of pay are prohibited, and executive compensation has been capped for two years beyond its expiry. In short, it puts the workers first, and as Nelson told me in a recent phone interview, she considers it an exciting blueprint for other unions to follow in the struggles to come. “We do everything, we create all the value—we say these things, right, but we have to internalize it,” she says. “We said, we’re not going to give you a set of standards that we hope that you can put in the labor section of the bill. No, we were the bill.” One thing to remember about Sara Nelson is that she can be as polite as she is passionate, and that chimeric quality has served her well during years of knock-down, drag-out battles with airline executives, bad bosses, and government officials. As she once told me, “I can rock a string of pearls, or be the hellraiser on the picket line.” Though she kept mum about any specific plans (including that upcoming vacancy at the top of the AFL-CIO . . . ), Nelson had a lot to say about the struggles ahead, the life-or-death importance of organizing, and what labor can expect from a Biden presidency. If she has her way, Nelson—and the rest of us, too—are going to be spending 2021 raising a whole lot of hell. The following conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.
‘COVID, COVID, COVID’- Pandemic set to dominate ’21 banking agenda on Hill — As the coronavirus continues to exact a heavy toll on the nation, bankers can expect lawmakers on the House and Senate banking committees to maintain their focus in 2021 on mitigating the economic effects of the pandemic. To be sure, the legislative agenda for financial services will be significantly affected by Tuesday's critical runoff elections for the two Senate seats from Georgia, which will determine if the Republicans or Democrats control the chamber. But regardless of the outcome, observers say the pandemic will likely consume the majority of lawmakers' attention in the new year. COVID-19 "really turned the priority list upside down in March," said James Ballentine, executive vice president for political affairs and congressional relations at the American Bankers Association. "Certainly there were issues that we were pursuing. … Not that we and Congress can’t walk and chew gum at the same time, but it required a real myopic focus on addressing what was going on with the world and how the banks could help.” The industry may continue to pursue non-pandemic legislative priorities, such as a bill making it easier to provide banking services to marijuana businesses and further reforms to the anti-money-laundering framework. And banks will have a vested interest in the Senate confirmation process for regulators chosen by the incoming Biden administration.But bankers' wish lists will likely take a backseat to continued debates about pandemic relief programs like the Paycheck Protection Program. And with the nation focused on vaccination programs and the alarming virus caseloads and death rates, banking policy generally will likely be low on Congress's and the Biden administration's agenda. In 2020, banks did win notable regulatory relief in Congress's pandemic relief packages, most recently in provisions related to troubled debt restructurings and the compliance deadline for the Current Expected Credit Losses accounting standard. And the industry's biggest legislative victory was reform of shell-company rules — shifting beneficial-owner reporting requirements away from banks — in a defense authorization bill. But the focus on the pandemic in the new year means bankers probably won't win more sweeping reg relief from Congress in 2021. That said, they also likely will avoid any new regulations imposed by lawmakers, even if Democrats seize the Senate majority. If lawmakers are able to enact any meaningful change in financial policy, it would likely have to be on reforms with support from both parties. “I don’t think the filibuster is going to be threatened. You are still going to need 60 votes. There’s still going to be incredibly tight ratios in the committees. If anything it hopefully forces people to work more closely together.”
Wells Fargo released from one enforcement order, still has 10 to go - Wells Fargo has been freed from a five-year-old enforcement action that required the San Francisco bank to improve its controls for combating money laundering. The termination of the November 2015 consent order represents a step forward for a bank that has been dogged by regulatory problems in recent years. The order was one of 11 public enforcement actions under which Wells was operating. American Banker reported last month that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency had recently informed Wells Fargo that it was found to have satisfied the requirements of the consent order and was on the verge of being freed from its restrictions. The 2015 consent order was a response to problems that regulators found in Wells’ wholesale banking unit, which handled corporate customers with annual sales in excess of $5 million. The OCC, which is the $1.9 trillion-asset bank’s primary regulator, determined that Wells Fargo’s processes for determining whether individual customers posed a money laundering risk were ineffective. The consent order required Wells to collect certain information about the true owners of its corporate customers, in accordance with regulatory guidance on the beneficial ownership of companies, which led to another regulatory headache. In 2018, Wells disclosed that unnamed federal agencies had opened inquiries into potential misconduct in connection with the bank’s efforts to collect the beneficial ownership information. In a November 2020 securities filing, Wells Fargo stated that it was continuing to respond to various governmental inquiries related to the beneficial ownership data. Wells still has to complete a lot of work in order to satisfy its regulators. Bloomberg reported last month that some top company executives expect an asset cap imposed by the Federal Reserve in 2018 to remain in place until at least late 2021, while key Fed officials foresee an even longer timeline.
Q4 2020 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Increased to 65 Institutions - The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Q4 2020. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through December 31, 2020. Since the last update at the end of October 2020, the list increased by one to 65 institutions after one addition. Assets increased by $1.5 billion to $58.2 billion, with $1.3 billion of the increase from updated asset figures through September 30, 2020. A year ago, the list held 67 institutions with assets of $51.1 billion. Added this month was the Business Bank of Texas, N.A., Austin, TX ($115 million). On December 1, 2020, the FDIC released third quarter results and an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 56 institutions with assets of $53.9 billion on the official list, up from 52 institutions with assets of $48.1 billion at the second quarter of 2020. With the conclusion of the fourth quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,768 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.7 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,703 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,003 action terminations, 411 failures, 270 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.2 percent of the 1,768 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.
Tax hikes, tough regulators: What Democratic sweep may hold for banks — Bankers should brace for stricter congressional scrutiny, tax increases and more progressive regulators now that Democrats have gained control of the Senate, according to industry analysts. With Democratic wins called in both runoffs in Georgia, the chamber will be split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, with Kamala Harris holding the tiebreaker once she is sworn in as vice president. Democrats will maintain a majority in the House, too. While the coronavirus pandemic is expected to consume much of lawmakers’ attention, their agenda will likely include legislation to promote financial inclusion, ensure the financial system is safe from climate-change risks and reform the credit reporting industry. Banks are also expected to face tougher oversight from Congress, with Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, setting the priorities of the banking committees. Moreover, President-elect Joe Biden is expected to have a much easier time getting nominees confirmed to regulatory agency posts since his party will control the Senate. “Banks were one of the primary beneficiaries of the Trump administration given the reduction in corporate taxes and the deregulatory agenda,” Isaac Boltansky, an analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading, said in a research note Wednesday. “Under a Democratic-sweep scenario, banks would face higher corporate taxes and a less hospitable regulatory environment, but the timing, prioritization and magnitude of these changes are relatively nuanced.” Banks can expect more aggressive enforcement from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as well as other regulatory agencies, as Biden will have more freedom to pick liberal policymakers to lead the agencies. “Biden should have an easier time getting his choices confirmed to top jobs,” Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, said in a note Wednesday. “It also means a crusading progressive should end up in charge of the CFPB, which means more enforcement and regulatory risk for auto lenders, servicers, mortgage originators, credit card lenders, payday lenders and debt collectors.” Biden, in wide-ranging policy documents published over the summer, also suggested increasing corporate income taxes and potentially imposing a financial crisis responsibility fee for banks.
Top U.S. banks’ tax bill would rise $11 billion with Biden hike - After three years of savings, top U.S. banks could face an increased tax bill of as much as $11 billion a year if President-elect Joe Biden moves forward with corporate rate hikes he campaigned on. That would follow $42 billion of savings by the six biggest banks thanks to outgoing President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which have boosted their bottom line by more than 10% over the past three years. While the tax hike — which is probable, though not assured, given Democrats’ narrow control of Congress — would hurt bank earnings, other measures taken by the incoming administration could help counter the increase. Further fiscal stimulus to boost an economic recovery, causing borrowing costs to rise slightly, would be a positive for banks weighed down by historically narrow interest rate margins. “A tax increase would be a very concrete negative for banks,” said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. “But you have to think of low interest rates as an implicit tax on banks, and that’s much bigger than the impact of potential tax-rate hikes. So anything that pushes rates up is good for banks.” Banks benefited more than other industries from Trump’s tax cuts because their effective rates are always much closer to the headline figure as they, unlike companies in other industries, can’t benefit from most deductions. When the corporate tax rate was 35%, the biggest banks paid an average of 30%, while the average for non-financial companies was 14%. When it was cut to 21% by Trump, banks’ effective rate dropped to 19%. Biden has said he’d increase the corporate rate to 28%.A representative for Biden’s transition team didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Biden has said he likely won’t pursue tax increases until 2022 at the earliest given the ongoing pandemic and economic fallout. This week’s Georgia runoff elections gave Democrats half the Senate’s 100 seats, meaning the vice president would have to break a tie. While 60 votes are ordinarily needed to pass legislation, Biden could turn to the budget reconciliation process, which Republicans used to pass Trump’s tax law. Democrats also lost House seats in November’s election, narrowing their margin of control there. “Given the razor-thin margins in the House and Senate, centrist Democrats will be the ones with the leverage and will dictate what will happen on taxes and other legislative efforts,” said Brian Gardner, Stifel Financial’s chief Washington policy strategist. “Biden can’t get to 28%, but maybe to 24% to 25%, if he can get the centrists to go along with a hike at all.” The six biggest banks are on track to save $10 billion on their 2020 tax bill, based on analysts’ estimates for fourth-quarter earnings. Firms start reporting results for the period on Jan. 15. Their savings will be lower for 2020 than in previous years because their profits were cut by surging provisions for bad loans as the pandemic hurt the economy. This year, pretax income for the group is expected to rise by 36%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Next year, they could fully recover ground lost during the pandemic, some analysts estimate. “Banks were among the biggest beneficiaries of the corporate tax cut,” said Jason Goldberg, an analyst at Barclays. “And higher rates will cut into their profit, just like it would for other U.S.-based companies. But, at the end of the day, the most important thing for banks is the health of the economy.”
Credit union regulator encourages underserved areas for federal charters - The National Credit Union Administration on Friday urged federal credit unions with multiple-common-bond fields of membership to add underserved communities to their FOMs. The agency’s announcement, which came in a letter to credit unions, was released on the heels of an announcement from a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau task force that recommended Congress allow all credit unions to add underserved areas to their fields of membership in order to promote financial inclusion. “Expanding into underserved areas can also help diversify membership and increase a credit union’s lending opportunities,” NCUA said in its letter. “Adding an underserved area to a federal credit union’s field of membership does not change the nature of a credit union’s charter. A multiple common-bond federal credit union may add additional groups under the NCUA’s multiple common bond expansion options after being approved to expand service to an underserved area.” Financial inclusion has been a key prirotty for NCUA Chairman Rodney Hood, and the agency added in its letter that, “In view of the challenging environment we are all facing due to the pandemic, it is more important than ever to continue making credit union access available to the greatest extent possible.” Despite a 2016 rule that expanded field-of-membership regulations, credit union groups continue to call on the agency to broaden its rules on field of membership. Jim Nussle, CEO of the Credit Union National Association, last year said Congress should amend the Federal Credit Union Act to eliminate FOM entirely. NCUA also recently issued a proposal to loosen restrictions surrounding what counts as a service facility, which could make it easier for some credit unions to reach additional consumers.
Banks pick apart OCC ‘fair access’ plan, but customers praise it = Trade associations representing the nation's largest banks are calling on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to withdraw its so-called “fair access” to banking proposal, even as gun enthusiasts, the energy industry and others cheer the effort. The proposal, issued in late November, would require big national banks to do business with assault-weapons makers, fossil fuels companies and other polarizing commercial businesses if they meet standard credit and other objective criteria. The plan echoed concerns raised by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and other Republicans that some banks’ decisions to cease or limit business with certain sectors amounted to discrimination. That banks would bristle at government direction on which clients to serve, or that members of industries that have had their banking services cut off would side with acting Comptroller Brian Brooks, isn’t completely surprising. And the fate of the proposal is uncertain given that the incoming Biden administration could seek to replace Brooks him with someone who halts the rulemaking or undoes it if it’s finalized quickly. Still, comment letters filed in recent weeks highlight the raw nerves that the proposal touches, and the fundamental questions it raises — like the future of risk management, especially banks’ handling of reputational risk. “The arbitrary and capricious nature of the proposal, the lack of clear statutory authority, its inconsistency and potential conflict with long-standing and widely accepted risk management and supervisory practices, and the significant compliance costs it would impose, make the proposed rule untenable,” the American Bankers Association wrote in an unsigned comment letter. One of OCC’s key arguments is that banks lack the capacity to make service decisions that aren’t rooted firmly in finance. "Neither the OCC nor banks are well-equipped to balance risks unrelated to financial exposures and the operations required to deliver financial services," the agency wrote in the proposal. "For example, climate change is a real risk, but so is the risk of foreign wars caused in part by U.S. energy dependence and the risk of blackouts caused by energy shortages." But according to the ABA, the proposed rule is “wholly inconsistent” with decades of guidance from the OCC on reputational risk, which instructs banks to consider not only the raw financials of prospective of clients but their public standing as well. Deaths associated with chronic gun violence in the U.S. have been a key rationale behind some banks’ decisions to stop doing business with certain firearm manufacturers, for instance. “Some institutions … have taken the position that they will not provide services to certain industries for ethical or faith-based reasons, because of the perceived ethics of the business within their communities, employees and shareholders,” the ABA argued. “Their reputation in their communities would be at stake if they did not exercise such discretion.” The Consumer Bankers Association acknowledged in its comment letter the historic shortcomings of reputational risk management but stressed it should still have a place in a bank’s strategic planning. “Under the guise of reputational risk, we have seen the concept of banking unsavory entities taken too far,” wrote David Pommerehn, general counsel of the CBA. “At the same time, banks should be allowed to make decisions based on complex corporate strategies and risk management tools to address risks to their reputation. The proposal raises questions about its impact on these long-standing and well-established bank risk management practices.” The uncertain role of reputational risk management would almost certainly reverberate across all core elements of a bank’s business, advocates said, severely limiting the discretion and strategic capacity of management. Having “an affirmative obligation to provide products and services to the public as prescribed by the OCC,” the ABA wrote, “seemingly puts covered banks into the role of a financial utility.” Bank advocates also argued that in practice, the proposal’s requirement that no person be denied any kind of service whatsoever without “documented failure to meet quantitative, risk-based standards,” to quote the proposal, would be a massive compliance burden, particularly in heavily automated lending sectors such as credit cards.
New York leads states’ push to overturn OCC’s ‘rent-a-bank’ rule- A coalition of Democratic-led states sued federal bank regulators on Tuesday over recently enacted rules that hinder states’ power to cap interest rates on consumer loans. The lawsuit accuses the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of unlawfully attempting to facilitate predatory lending by defanging state usury laws. That argument has parallels to the claims that various states made against federal banking regulators during the run-up to the subprime mortgage crisis.In October, the OCC finalized a rule that establishes a simple and relatively easy-to-meet test for determining when national banks are the true lender in the context of partnerships with nonbanks. National banks are considered the true lender under the OCC’s rule if they fund the loan or are named as the lender in a loan agreement. The new rule could undermine legal arguments that attorneys general in blue states have long made in an effort to prevent nonbanks from using bank partnerships as a way to evade their states’ usury caps. National banks have the authority to export their home states’ usury laws across state lines. The concern of officials in states like New York, which has some of the strictest usury laws in the country and is leading the coalition of states that sued the OCC, is that banks headquartered in states with laxer rules will be used to enable predatory lending. The lawsuit filed Tuesday describes these partnerships as "rent-a-bank" arrangements. “Rather than stem the tide of exploitative and predatory loans that trap vulnerable consumers in cycles of debt, the Trump administration wants to open the floodgates by sanctioning schemes that allow the financial services industry to target New Yorkers and paint a bullseye on their backs,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a press release. Also signing onto the lawsuit were the attorneys general of California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Carolina and the District of Columbia.
NCUA to revive risk-based capital rule during January meeting - National Credit Union Administration Chairman Rodney Hood is looking to leave the chairmanship with a bang, if the agenda for the agency’s January board meeting is any indication. Hood, a Republican, is expected to be replaced in the chairmanship by board member Todd Harper, a Democrat, once President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated. While the agency normally meets on the third or fourth Thursday of each month, Hood moved the January meeting up by a week to precede Biden taking office. Perhaps the highest-profile item on the agenda — which includes a total of nine subjects — is a proposed rule regarding risk-based net worth and complex thresholds. In December 2019, the board once again delayed implementation of the rule, this time until 2022, as part of a bid to buy itself more time for a broader overhaul of capital standards. Harper objected to the delay — echoing comments he made earlier that year — though any objections he has this time around are likely to be overruled by the Republicans’ two-to-one margin at the board, once new board member Kyle Hauptman’s vote is accounted for. A notice of proposed rulemaking is also expected regarding simplifying risk-based capital requirements. Along with risk-based capital, the board will discuss a proposed rule on credit union service organizations, issue a final rule on corporate credit unions and be briefed on the agency’s ACCESS Initiative, a project Hood unveiled last fall as part of an attempt to boost NCUA’s role in financial inclusion efforts. The board will also discuss a potential rule regarding the Camels rating system. The meeting will be held remotely on Thursday.
Equifax to tackle e-commerce fraud with $640M Kount deal - Equifax agreed to acquire Kount, which offers fraud protection for e-commerce retailers, for $640 million. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter, Atlanta-based Equifax said in a statement Friday. Kount’s employees will continue to be based in Boise, Idaho, and will report to Equifax’s U.S. information solutions unit. The credit reporting firm has been building out its identity and fraud protection business for existing customers, which include many of the world’s largest banks and telecommunications companies. With Kount, the company will begin selling those same services to e-commerce sites. “There’s been an explosion in the last three to four years of consumers doing everything online and that’s only accelerated during COVID,” Equifax Chief Executive Mark Begor said in an interview. “What comes with that is the challenge of making sure that individual who’s trying to complete that transaction, apply for that credit card, buy that product online, is really that individual.” Many of the world’s largest retailers have seen their fraud costs balloon in recent years as hackers have increasingly set their sights on using stolen credit card information online. Kount’s software helps retailers catch those fraudsters as well as stop hackers from taking over customer accounts. Equifax will also be able to use Kount’s data to help its existing customers manage fraud. Kount’s network uses data from more than 17 billion unique devices and 5 billion transactions annually made across 200 countries and territories, Equifax said in the statement.
Amex said to face inquiry into business credit card sales tactics - American Express is reportedly under investigation by a top federal agency exploring allegations of unethical sales tactics by the company’s small-business credit card sales representatives. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is reviewing claims that some Amex employees misled small-business owners when signing them up for cards, according to The Wall Street Journal. The review seeks proof that some small-business owners were tricked into signing for cards they didn’t want, in addition to receiving cards with fees and rates they didn’t expect. A civil investigation is underway involving cards issued to businesses that previously had an Amex card cobranded with Costco, the Journal said. Amex lost the Costco card business to Citigroup in June 2016. Questions surround whether Amex employees failed to keep records of all sales calls and whether they improperly obtained customers’ personal information to sign people up for cards, said the Journal in its report, which previously looked into shady Amex business practices within the past year. "We have robust compliance policies and controls in place, and do not tolerate misconduct," Amex said in a statement to PaymentsSource. The OCC said it would not comment on supervisory matters pertaining to specific banks. The timing of the federal investigation is tough for Amex, which has been hammered on other fronts during the pandemic. It is a key issuer of travel-and-entertainment credit cards, and its spending volume collapsed last year as consumers were forced to stay home. Amex’s stock dipped briefly on Thursday after the Journal's publication of its article. Consumer advocates are closely watching for companies that could be operating under unusual conditions or duress during the pandemic. “I think many companies are so large that one hand doesn’t always know what the other is doing and that can result in some unfortunate issues,”
Early-pay providers get more clarity from CFPB (for now) - As more U.S. workers tap new ways to spend their wages before payday, one question looms over the nascent early wage access industry: Are these on-demand products a form of credit? If so, the raft of young companies in the sector are lenders, and thereby subject to a range of federal and state regulations. If not, the providers should be able to operate with greater confidence that they will not run afoul of regulators. Two recent moves by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau can be viewed as tentative steps toward resolving the regulatory uncertainty. In late November, the agency issued an advisory opinion that provides a road map for companies that want an assurance that they will not be deemed credit providers. And last week, the CFPB granted that imprimatur to one such company: San Jose, Calif.-based PayActiv. Two other early wage providers — FlexWage and Branch — told American Banker this week that they are interested in engaging with the CFPB. Firms that want a regulatory stamp of approval hope that it will give them an advantage in discussions with employers. Employers, which can partner with these companies to enable their workers to access wages that have been earned but not yet paid, are often interested in providing the service to employees whose tight finances lead to mismatches between when their bills are due and when their paychecks arrive. Some 78% of U.S. consumers said that they sometimes, usually or always lived paycheck to paycheck in a 2019 survey by Careerbuilder.com. Still, employers often express concern about the lack of regulatory certainty in the early-pay sector. “We view this as good news for the industry, and frankly for employers and employees,” said David Reidy, PayActiv’s chief legal officer. “The more clarity and certainty that we can get, the more we feel this will be a standard benefit offered to working people.”
National banks may process stablecoin payments, OCC says — National banks may use stablecoins and distributed-ledger technologies to process payments, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said. The agency issued an interpretive letter Monday that addresses national banks’ use of “independent node verification networks,” or INVNs, and stablecoins. INVN is a general term used to describe a database where copies of information are shared and maintained across multiple computers, or nodes. Stablecoins are a specific form of cryptocurrency typically tied to the value of a fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar. While the letter said that the OCC “neither encourages nor discourages banks” from using such technologies, it emphasized that INVNs and stablecoins “may enhance the efficiency, effectiveness and stability of the provision of payments” and “may be more resilient than other payment networks because of the decentralized nature of INVNs,” according to the letter signed by Jonathan V. Gould, the OCC's senior deputy comptroller and chief counsel. The letter argues that the use of decentralized payments technologies is simply the latest development in banks’ long-standing role as institutions that move around money. “Using INVNs to facilitate payments transactions represents a new means of performing banks’ permissible payments functions,” Gould wrote. “At their core, payment activities involve transmitting instructions to transfer a specified sum from one account on a ledger to another account on the same or a different ledger (either at the same bank or at different banks).” The letter also said that banks must understand the risks associated with using cryptocurrencies in payments, including risk of fraud and anti-money-laundering concerns. “Depending on the nature of the payment activity, activities involving stablecoins could entail significant liquidity risks for banks,” Gould wrote. The letter is the latest crypto-friendly move by acting Comptroller Brian Brooks — formerly chief legal officer of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. In July, the OCC wrote in an interpretive letter that banks could legally hold cryptocurrency assets via their custody services, and in September the agency cleared banks to hold certain assets in reserve accounts tied to stablecoins. “While governments in other countries have built real-time payments systems, the United States has relied on our innovation sector to deliver real-time payments technologies," Brooks said in a news release that the OCC issued along with the letter. "Some of those technologies are built and managed by bank consortia, and some are based on independent node verification networks such as blockchains." “Our letter removes any legal uncertainty about the authority of banks to connect to blockchains as validator nodes and thereby transact stablecoin payments on behalf of customers who are increasingly demanding the speed, efficiency, interoperability and low cost associated with these products,” said Brooks, who has previously expressed skepticism of government-owned payment systems.
CFPB well positioned to oversee fintechs, task force says - A task force created by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is recommending that Congress consider authorizing the bureau — and not the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — to issue federal charters to fintech companies engaged in lending, payments or remittances. The task force released a report Tuesday with 102 recommendations to the bureau, federal lawmakers and state and federal regulators that it said were aimed at strengthening consumer protections, encouraging competition and reaching unbanked consumers. One of the leading recommendations was that Congress should create a federal charter that allows nonbank fintechs to operate anywhere in the nation under the same rules as banks and others that offer similar products and services. “Regulatory uncertainty and unnecessary regulatory costs threaten to inhibit FinTech-based innovation,” the task force said in a 100-page report. Lawmakers could grant chartering power to the CFPB or clarify the OCC's ability to issue such charters, the report said. However, it seemed to favor putting the authority in the hands of the CFPB because of its bent toward consumer protection and, it says, the OCC's interest in protecting the rival national bank charter. "There is an opportunity for the CFPB to be an even more powerful force to promote consumer protection and welfare, to be a chartering entity for fintechs," Todd Zywicki, the task force’s chair and a law professor at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia Law School, told American Banker on Tuesday. "It’s a logical place to do it and its natural for it to be done on a national basis." The OCC established a special-purpose fintech charter in 2018, but lawsuits brought by states have bogged it down, and no companies have sought it. Recently, Figure Technologies in San Francisco applied to the OCC for a charter that would mimic the fintech charter, and that application, too, was challenged in court last month by the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. Currently, nonbank fintech companies are subject to state laws and must register or acquire a license in each state in which they operate. Compliance with different state licensing and usury laws is challenging for fintechs, the report said. “A company with a nationwide footprint thus may need 50 separate licenses and adjust its practices to conform with each state’s laws,” the report said. “As a result, a non-bank FinTech lender would be subject to different maximum-allowable interest rates depending on the state, whereas a federally chartered bank providing the same service could charge the interest rate that its home state allows, regardless of the consumer’s location. These costs, and the competitive disadvantages from a segmented regulatory regime, are significant.” The five-member task force was created last year by CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger to identify conflicts and gaps in consumer finance law. The first volume of the task force’s report looks back at the history of consumer finance law that began in the 1920s. The second contained the recommendations, which are meant to inform policymakers but have no binding authority, Zywicki said. The task force also proposed that the CFPB adopt a self-regulatory fair lending program as a solution to discrimination in auto lending. Many auto dealerships have adopted the program voluntarily, and the report states that it could serve as “a valuable compliance option” for meeting the requirements of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The task force also is recommending that the bureau adopt guidelines from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council on civil money penalties. The guidance includes a “matrix” of factors currently used by other federal regulators for assessing fines against bad actors that is meant to make the penalties consistent and transparent.
OCC, not CFPB, should grant fintech charters, Brooks says - -Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks pushed back against the recommendation of a task force that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — and not the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — should issue federal charters to fintech companies. In a statement Wednesday, Brooks held firm that the OCC retains chartering authority, describing the OCC and CFPB as “two cops on the beat” with separate responsibilities.“Under the law, the agency that grants national charters to companies engaged in lending, payments, or deposit-taking is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which has the responsibility for prudential supervision to ensure these chartered institutions operate in a safe, sound, and fair manner,” Brooks said in the statement. “In its wisdom, Congress in the Dodd-Frank Act separated chartering and prudential supervision from consumer protection enforcement, assigning chartering authority to the OCC and specific consumer protection enforcement authority to the CFPB.” A task force appointed by the CFPB released a report Tuesday with 102 recommendations to Congress and policymakers that it said would strengthen consumer protections and encourage competition. The leading recommendation was that Congress authorize the CFPB to issue federal charters or licenses to nonbank fintechs or “clarify the authority of the OCC” to do so. It is unclear whether the task force’s recommendations will have any impact. Once President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20, he can fire both Brooks and CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger and appoint his own agency heads. Brooks praised some of the task force’s report and appeared to agree that nonbank fintechs that offer similar products and services as banks should be able to operate under the same rules. “The thoughtful report by the task force created by the CFPB concludes that the nation needs federal charters for fintechs to effectively, efficiently, and safely serve the financial needs of consumers across the nation under a single uniform set of rules,” he said. “We absolutely agree with that conclusion.” “The additional protections implemented following the last financial crisis put two cops on the beat and separated those responsibilities so neither would be compromised in service to the other,” Brooks said. “That dynamic should be preserved so that the CFPB continues to enforce compliance with enumerated financial consumer protection laws for the financial companies designated by the Dodd-Frank Act, while at the same time avoiding the creation of a prudential supervision gap that could lead to serious safety and soundness risks.”
BankThink Fintechs shouldn’t be granted easy outs on CRA - Bank regulators, with assistance from Congress, have kept nonbank behemoths from entering the gates of the banking kingdom for decades. But that rapidly changed in 2020. While a few state regulators and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have gradually opened the banking doors to industrial loan companies, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has opened the floodgates by encouraging and lately, approving, fintechs to pursue national bank charters. Varo Money was the first fintech to receive a full national banking charter from the OCC in July, a process that cost nearly $100 million in three years. And on Dec. 30, the OCC approved LendingClub’s purchase of Radius Bancorp, moving the online lender one (big) step closer to becoming a bank. Other regulators have also followed suit, albeit more slowly, like the FDIC’s deposit insurance approval in March for Square, a digital payments company, to form an ILC. Such actions will only encourage many other fintechs in their attempts to crack into the banking system. Challenger banks and fintechs might not mind paying similar taxes to that of banks, with their increased efficiency in serving customers with superior technology without costly branches. Many fintechs initially pushed back on having to comply with CRA since they, like credit unions, argued they already focus on low- and moderate-income households and small businesses. In a 2017 comment letter when the OCC was first considering a special banking charter for fintechs, SoFi argued that applying CRA requirements “under the rubric of ‘financial inclusion’ ” was inappropriate for “institutions without operations based in specific geographic communities.” Realizing compliance was a given, most fintechs opted for CRA “strategic plans.” But these plans don’t work as well for communities in need because it allows the bank to set their own goals for what’s considered a satisfactory and outstanding rating. This is a form of self-regulation, the first cousin of no regulation. Regulators almost always approve strategic plans, only requiring community input which often comes from friendly community groups. Rather than a tough in-class exam, the strategic plan is like a take-home test that can allow better ratings than banks that have to comply with the traditional CRA exam. As the Biden administration moves in, it should consider a stronger CRA reform, sticking to its original intent of revitalizing communities. This can be accomplished either by improving the strategic option with specific rating guidelines and removing itsfail-safe option, or better yet, eliminating this CRA loophole.
Are Treasury, FHFA running out of time to approve GSE capital boost- — With less than two weeks remaining in the Trump administration, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Treasury Department are nearing the deadline to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to retain more or all of their earnings. FHFA Director Mark Calabria has identified removing the cap on Fannie and Freddie's capital as a major step toward re-privatizing the mortgage giants. Officials estimate the companies need a capital cushion of roughly $275 billion — much higher than they are allowed to hold — in order to exit conservatorship. Raising or removing the cap on retained earnings would require amending the stock agreements governing the FHFA and Treasury's oversight of the government-sponsored enterprises. But with Calabria's job security on shaky ground and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set to depart when President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in, the window may be closing. It's also not clear that Calabria and Mnuchin entirely agree on how to revise the agreements. “Director Calabria is in kind of a tough situation because he can’t do anything unilaterally,” said Ted Tozer, senior fellow at the Milken Institute and former president of Ginnie Mae. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said that he supports changing the terms of the government’s ownership of the companies to allow them to hold more capital. But it remains to be seen if he will ultimately sign off on the change in the last few days of the Trump administration. Bloomberg NewsThe preferred stock purchase agreements, or PSPAs, lay out the government’s ownership of the two GSEs. They were last amended in 2019 to allow the mortgage giants to hold onto a combined $45 billion in capital, but that is a far cry from the amount the companies will need to hold when privatized. Mnuchin has said that he supports changing the terms of the government’s ownership of the companies to allow them to hold more capital. But it remains to be seen if he will ultimately sign off on the change in the last few days of the Trump administration. It's also unclear if Biden’s pick for Treasury secretary — former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen — would be willing to sign onto an agreement allowing the GSEs to retain their earnings.
Lenders to small landlords brace for credit losses - Dawn Garza, a landlord and small-business owner in San Antonio, is hoping to get a second loan from the Paycheck Protection Program to cover her property taxes due at the end of January. She’s short because business is down, and she gave her tenants — one a student and part-time restaurant worker, and the other an out-of-work hairdresser who is recovering from COVID-19 — a three-month break on rent this year. “I am not going to ask for back rent because I know it's impossible for them,” Garza said. The stimulus package enacted in December extended the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s moratorium on evictions through Jan. 31 and granted renters other relief. But for many landlords the mortgage payments are still due, a reality that translates into a looming credit risk for banks. About 1.6% of an estimated $1.6 trillion market for mortgages on 1- to 4-unit properties were delinquent in November, holding steady from the previous month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But delinquencies are expected to climb. Chris Nichols, chief strategy officer for the nearly $19 billion-asset CenterState Bank in Winter Haven, Fla., said banks have been working closely with landlords to restructure their debt and provide forbearances, but this relief will expire soon and is a concern. Defaults on rental properties are typically caused by mismanagement or economic downturns that are easier to gauge. “Since none of us have been through a pandemic this large before, there is no playbook and few alternatives,” Nichols said. Nichols estimates that banks will see a peak in these delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2021. The delinquency rate could climb a full percentage point to the mid-2% range in some markets like New York and Chicago, Nichols said, and lenders could be dealing with these problem loans for up to two years. “Small landlords are getting hit hard with no real way out of the problem until the pandemic ends,” Nichols said.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 5.53%" -- Note: This is as of December 27th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 5.53%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged relative to the prior week at 5.53% as of December 27, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ... The share of loans in forbearance remained relatively unchanged in the final two weeks of 2020, maintaining the trend of hovering around 5.5 percent for the last two months. However, the share for Ginnie Mae loans continues to inch up and is now at its highest level since the week of November 1st,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Forbearance requests and exits both slowed markedly, and servicer call volume dropped sharply over the holidays.” Fratantoni continued, “While the increasing number of COVID-19 cases continues to slow economic activity, the passed stimulus legislation should provide financial support for many households as the vaccine rollout commences.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has generally been trending down. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week from 0.10% to 0.06%, the lowest level since the week ending March 15."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of January 5th. From Black Knight: Slowdown in Rate of Forbearance Improvement: Over the first week of the year, the number of mortgages in active forbearance plans in the U.S. fell by 92,000 (a decline of 3%), the largest weekly drop since early November. The decline was driven by the large volume of quarterly forbearance plan expirations at the end of December, many of which were reaching their nine-month point. ... Despite the decline, this represents a troubling slow-down in the rate of improvement. ... The 3% decline in the first week of January fell starkly short of the 9% decline seen in the first week of July (which brought about the first quarterly wave of expirations) And it pales in comparison to the 18% reduction in the first week of October when plans began to reach six-month expirations. While the monthly rate of decline has varied over the past seven months of the pandemic due to fluctuations in scheduled expiration activity, the average rate of improvement over the past 30 days has been -1% month-over-month, down from -7.5% month-over-month on average from June through November. December marked the last significant wave of quarterly expirations before the first plans begin to reach their 12-month points at the end of March. As such, it’s likely we’ll see only modest improvement in overall forbearance volumes between now and then. As of Jan. 5, 2.74 million (5.2% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, including 3.3% (932,000) of GSE mortgages, 9.3% (1.13 million) of FHA/VA loans and 5.2% (673,000) of portfolio-held and privately securitized loans. Together, they represent $547 billion in unpaid principal.
Housing Inventory: Starting the Year at Record Lows --One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?Tracking inventory will be very important this year, and I'll be using some weekly sources. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. According to inventory is at 420 thousand (7 day average), compared to 764 thousand the same week a year ago. Mike Simonsen discusses this data every Monday on Youtube. Mike focuses on inventory this week, and also discussed how many houses are being rented.
Construction Spending Increased 0.9% in November - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,459.4 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,446.9 billion. The November figure is 3.8 percent above the November 2019 estimate of $1,405.5 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,111.8 billion, 1.2 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,098.6 billion. ... In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $347.6 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised October estimate of $348.3 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 3% below the previous peak. Non-residential spending is 9% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently. Public construction spending is 7% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 33% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 16.1%. Non-residential spending is down 9.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3.1% year-over-year. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential, and public spending (depending on disaster relief), will be under pressure. For example, lodging is down 27% YoY, multi-retail down 21% YoY, and office down 7 YoY. This was at consensus expectations of a 0.9% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices More Than Double Year-over-year -Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME framing futures through Jan 4th. This is up 115% year-over-year - more than double.There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Clearly there is another surge in demand for lumber.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 17.2% Year-over-year - From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 2 January: Thanks to a travel boost leading into the New Year’s holiday, U.S. weekly hotel occupancy improved noticeably from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through 2 January. 27 December 2020 through 2 January 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019/2020):• Occupancy: 40.6% (-17.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$107.93 (-21.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$43.81 (-35.1%)
Hotel demand jumped in week-over-comparisons while TSA checkpoint counts showed five days with more than 1 million passengers. Substantial hotel demand growth is not expected to continue as leisure travel once again dissipates after the holidays. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Car Companies Expected To Post Lowest Sales In A Decade As Focus Turns To 2021 Recovery - Auto sales numbers for the end of 2020 could be the harbinger of a recovery to come in 2021 - but the annual numbers for 2020 are undoubtedly going to look ugly in the grand scheme of things. Despite decent numbers from GM and Toyota for December, all major automakers are expected to post "significant declines" for the year, according to the Wall Street Journal.Sales will likely total 14.4 million to 14.6 million for the year once results are in. This would mark a 15% decline from 2019 and the lowest level for sales in a decade. Among the highlights and lowlights:
- GM saw sales up 4.8% and sales of new pickup trucks rising 11%.
- Toyota saw sales up 20.4% and its 9.4% fourth-quarter sales beating estimates of 9%.
- Mazda‘s December sales were up 18%.
- Nissan’s fourth-quarter sales dropped 19%, marking its eighth straight drop, according to Bloomberg.
- According to the WSJ, Fiat's fourth quarter sales were down 8% due to "sharply lower demand" from car-rental companies.
- As we noted days ago, Tesla sales for the year came in at 499,550, up about 36% year over year.
The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate was estimated by Bloomberg to be 16.4 million in December, which is down from 16.9 million a year ago. Citing J.D. Power, these numbers show "recovery from the early days of the pandemic". Analysts think a sales rebound can continue into 2021, driven by record low interest rates and - of course - stimulus checks.
December Vehicles Sales increased to 16.27 Million SAAR; Annual Sales off 14.7% - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 16.27 million SAAR in December 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 4.1% from the November sales rate, and down 3.2% from December 2019. This was above the consensus estimate of 15.8 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for December (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down year-over-year,The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.27 million SAAR.Annual sales in 2020, at 14.46 million, were down 14.7% from 16.95 million in 2019. This was the fewest annual sales since 2012.
Having Dropped for Years, US Auto Sales Plunged to 1970s Level in 2020 (graphs) During the infamous year 2020, with all its distortions and shifts, automakers delivered 14.46 million new vehicles in the US, retail and fleet combined, down 15.4% from 2019, the largest year-over-year percentage decline since 2008 (-18%). Topping off years of declines, 2020 took auto sales back to levels first seen in the 1970s. Every recession has left a deep scar on auto sales. But over the past 20 years, it has taken many years to get back to the prior highs, only to then watch sales plunging again. The last high was in 2016, which had barely eked past the prior high of 2000, in this terribly cyclical business of long-term stagnation interrupted by deep plunges: These are deliveries of new vehicles by dealers to their customers, retail and fleet, plus direct deliveries by automakers to their large fleet customers, such as rental car companies, and direct sales by automakers to their employees under employee programs. None of the automakers reported it when they published their vehicle sales this week, but all seven giants in the US have now booked several years in a row of declines; for GM, Toyota, and Ford, 2020 was the fifth year in a row of declines. In their press releases, they highlighted a cherry-picked record here or there. But long-term sales trends, no way. Investors have a short memory, or no memory – that’s what automakers are counting on. And the media doesn’t report long-term sales trends either, so I will. Because there are some doozies in the batch, and because the Pandemic didn’t start the trends but just accelerated them.
- General Motors, the largest automaker in US sales, reported that its deliveries in the US in the year 2020 fell by 12% to 2.55 million units. It was the fifth year in a row of declines. The Pandemic just accelerated the process. Since 2015, its vehicle sales have dropped by 17.4%:
- Toyota, which re-became the second largest automaker in the US last year, reported that its total sales in the US fell by 11.9% in 2020 to 2.11 million vehicles, thereby bypassing Ford, after having surrendered the second position to Ford in 2019. The two have been nip and tuck for years. For Toyota, it was also the fifth year in a row of declines. Since 2015, Toyota’s sales have dropped 15.5%:
- Ford, the third largest automaker, reported that total sales in 2020 fell 15.6% from 2019 to 2.04 million vehicles, also the fifth year in a row of declines. Since 2015, its sales have dropped 21.4%:
- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, the fourth largest automaker, reportedthat its US sales fell 17.4% in 2020 to 1.82 million vehicles. Since 2015, its sales have dropped 19.6%. But it’s the only automaker among the seven giants here whose sales in 2020 were higher than in 2013, if only by a hair, and if only because 2013 was still so crummy for FCA:
- American Honda, the fifth largest automaker in the US, reported that its sales in 2020 dropped 16.3% to 1.35 million vehicles, the third year in a row of declines. Since 2017, its sales are down 18.0%:
- Hyundai and Kia – they report separately though they’re joined through their ownership structure – sold 1.21 million vehicles combined in 2020, down 7.4% from 2019. This makes the company the sixth largest automaker in the US, with Nissan’s sales having collapsed over the past three years, and fallen through the floor. Hyundai-Kia sales are down 15.1% since 2016:
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales down 5% Year-over-year in December - The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019. However heavy truck sales started declining in late 2019 due to lower oil prices. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales really declined towards the end of March due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices, but have since rebounded. Heavy truck sales were at 454 thousand SAAR in December, down from 477 thousand SAAR in November, and down 5% from 475 thousand SAAR in December 2019. For the year, heavy truck sales were 409 thousand, down 22.3% from 527 thousand in 2019. This was the fewest heavy truck sales since 2016.
AAR: December Rail Carloads down 3.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 12.2% YoY --From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. U.S. rail traffic left something to be desired in 2020 — no surprise, of course, given the pandemic — but traffic finished the year reasonably strong. In December 2020, U.S. rail intermodal volume was up 12.2% over December 2019, its biggest monthly gain since February 2016. ... For all of 2020, U.S. intermodal originations were 13.46 million containers and trailers — the fourth highest annual total in history (behind 2017, 2018, and 2019) and down 2.0% (276,904 units) from 2019....Total U.S. carloads (not including intermodal) were 11.28 million in 2020, down 13.0% (1.69 million carloads) from 2019 and easily the lowest annual total since sometime before 1988, when our data begin. ... U.S. carloads excluding coal were down 7.9% in 2020 from 2019, though they were up 1.0% in December 2020 over December 2019. That’s their first year-over-year monthly gain in nearly two years. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020: In December, total carloads were down 3.7%, their smallest monthly decline since May 2019. Still, average weekly carloads in December 2020 (220,265) were the lowest for December since our records begin.The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers):In December 2020, intermodal was up 12.2% over December 2019, its biggest monthly percentage gain since February 2016. Week 50, the second of the five weeks in December 2020, was the highest volume U.S. intermodal week ever. Five other weeks in 2020, all since week 43, are in the all-time intermodal top 10.Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic, and intermodal has come back strong and was only down 2% annually compared to 2019.
Trade Deficit Increased to $68.1 Billion in November --From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.1 billion in November, up $5.0 billion from $63.1 billion in October, revised.November exports were $184.2 billion, $2.2 billion more than October exports. November imports were $252.3 billion, $7.2 billion more than October imports. Both exports and imports increased in November. Exports are down 12.5% compared to November 2019; imports are unchanged compared to November 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports much more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months. Oil imports averaged $35.68 per barrel in November, down from $36.23 per barrel in October, and down from $51.91 in November 2019. The trade deficit with China increased to $30.7 billion in November, from $26.3 billion in November 2019.
The Trade Deficit Surges --Menzie Chinn - To a 14 year high (in absolute terms, not as a share of GDP). Shrinkage in US-China deficit stalls. Figure 1: US goods and services trade balance (blue), and US-China goods trade balance, 12 month trailing moving average (brown), both in millions of $. Gray dashed line at NBER defined peak. Orange shading denotes trade war dated from March 2018. Source: BEA/Census via FRED, and author’s calculations.While the trade balance improves slightly during the trade war (shaded orange) pre-pandemic, I’d attribute that development more to macroeconomic conditions. The goods trade balance pre-pandemic was increasing, but from the pandemic onward, has trended sideways, with a downward move in latest months. This is merely an illustration of the point that tariffs and other trade barriers will to a first approximation only re-allocate the trade deficits between countries.The dollar strengthening — due to safe haven effects exacerbated by policy uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies — worked against trade deficit shrinkage. Figure 2: US goods and services trade balance, in millions of $ (blue, left scale), and real value of dollar against broad basked of currencies, in logs 2006M01=0 (red, right scale). Gray dashed line at NBER defined peak. Orange shading denotes trade war dated from March 2018. Source: BEA/Census via FRED, and author’s calculations.It is interesting to see the rapidly increasing deficit occur against a backdrop of slow economic growth; consumer goods accounted for a large component of the increase in imports, so may represent the shift in consumption patterns specific to the pandemic.
ISM Services Index Increased to 57.2% in December --The December ISM Services index was at 57.2%, up from 55.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 48.2%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 57.2%; December 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®: Economic activity in the services sector grew in December for the seventh month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI™ registered 57.2 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 55.9 percent. This reading represents a seventh straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 131 months.
December Markit Services PMI: "Business activity growth slowest for three months amid rise in virus cases" - The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 54.8 percent, down 3.6 from the final November estimate of 58.4. The Investing.com consensus was for 55.3 percent. Here is the opening from the latest press release: Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: "Rising virus case numbers took an increasing toll on the US economy in December, with business activity, order books and employment all growing at much reduced rates. The slowdown was especially steep in the service sector, where stricter social distancing measures hit consumerfacing businesses in particular. “While the survey data remained sufficiently resilient to indicate that GDP continued to expand at a relatively robust rate in the fourth quarter, the near-term outlook has deteriorated. Business expectations for the coming year fell considerably compared to November, as some postelection exuberance waned and companies grew more anxious about the ongoing impact of the pandemic. Rising case numbers represent an increased risk to the economy in the coming weeks, and hopes rest to a large extent on pandemic stimulus lifting the economy to prevent another downturn. “More encouragingly, businesses remain much more confident about the outlook in a year’s time than before the successful vaccine developments, reflecting greater optimism for prospects of life returning to normal in the second half of 2021.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 787,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 787,000 to 790,000. The 4-week moving average was 818,750, a decrease of 18,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 836,750 to 837,500. This does not include the 161,460 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 310,462 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 818,750.The previous week was revised up.The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.Continued claims decreased to 5,072,000 (SA) from 5,198,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 8,383,387 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,453,940 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. An additional 4,516,900 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,810,334 the previous week.
First UI claims of 2021 are still higher than the worst of the Great Recession -EPI Blog -Another 948,000 people applied for Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits last week, including 787,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 161,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The 948,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 152,000 from the prior week. That drop was driven almost entirely by a drop in PUA claims, undoubtedly due to uncertainty over whether PUA would be extended, as Trump delayed signing the relief bill during that week. Now that the program has been extended (more on that below), I expect PUA claims to rise again in coming weeks.Last week was the 42nd straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. (If that comparison is restricted to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession—initial claims last week were greater than the second-worst week of the Great Recession.)Most states provide 26 weeks (six months) of regular benefits. Given the length of this crisis, many workers have exhausted their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 126,000. After an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 24 weeks of regular state UI (theDecember COVID-19 relief bill increased the number of weeks of PEUC eligibility by 11, from 13 to 24).However, in the most recent data available for PEUC, the week ending Dec 19, PEUC claims dropped by 293,000. That was undoubtedly due to exhaustions. Well over 2 million people had exhausted the original 13 weeks of PEUC before Congress passed the extensions (see column C43 in form ETA 5159 for PEUC here). These workers are eligible for the additional 11 weeks, but they will need to recertify. We can expect PEUC numbers to swell dramatically as this occurs.Continuing claims for PUA also dropped, by 71,000, in the latest data. The latest data for this series is also for the week ending December 19—so before the relief bill, meaning some of that drop would have been exhaustions, i.e. temporary. The COVID-19 relief bill also extended the total weeks of eligibility for PUA by 11, from 39 to 50 weeks. As with PEUC, those who had exhausted the original 39 weeks of PUA before Congress passed the extensions are eligible for the additional 11 weeks, but they will need to recertify. Workers who were still on PUA (or PEUC) when Congress passed the bill will not need to recertify.The 11-week extensions of PEUC and PUA just kick the can down the road—they are not long enough. Without additional action by Congress, millions will exhaust benefits in mid-March, when the virus is still surging and job opportunities are still scarce. Figure A shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data are for December 19). Continuing claims are still more than 17 million above where they were a year ago, even with the exhaustions occurring during the time period covered by this chart.
ADP: Private Employment decreased 123,000 in December - From ADP: Private sector employment decreased by 123,000 jobs from November to Decemberaccording to the December ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “As the impact of the pandemic on the labor market intensifies, December posted the first decline since April 2020,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The job losses were primarilly concentrated in retail and leisure and hospitality.” The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 100 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in December. Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.
A Closer Look at Today's ADP Employment Report - In this morning's ADP employment report we got the December estimate of 123K nonfarm private employment jobs lost from ADP, a decrease over November's revised 304K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data in April 2002. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend.As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought employment numbers down to levels we have never seen this century.ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. It makes sense that service-producing employment has plummeted during the pandemic for a couple of reasons - our economy is mostly supported by service-producing jobs; and during the pandemic those same services are being brought to a halt.For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series. The latest data point is below the record high. There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence on Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring. For a better sense of the components of the two Goods Producing and Service Providing cohorts, here is a snapshot of the five select industries tracked by ADP. The two things to note here are the relative sizes of the industries and the relative trends. Note that Construction and Manufacturing are Production industries whereas the other three are Service Providing. Another view of the relative trends of the five select industries is an overlay of the year-over-year comparison. For a longer-term perspective on the Goods Producing and Service Providing employment, see our monthly analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor's monthly jobs report reaching back to 1939.
December Employment Report: 140 Thousand Jobs LOST, 6.7% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 44,000, from +610,000 to +654,000, and the change for November was revised up by 91,000, from +245,000 to +336,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 135,000 more than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In December, the year-over-year change was negative 9.37 million jobs. Total payrolls decreased by 140 thousand in December. Private payrolls decreased by 95 thousand. Payrolls for October and November were revised up 135 thousand combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the "Great Recession". The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.5% in December. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 57.4% (black line). IThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 6.7%. This was well below consensus expectations, however October and November were revised up by 135,000 combined.
December Jobs Report: 140K Jobs Lost, Unemployment Rate Remains At 6.7% - This morning's employment report for December showed a 140K decrease in total nonfarm payrolls, which was below theInvesting.com forecast of 71K jobs added. Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors, a procedure done at the end of each calendar year. Seasonally adjusted estimates back to January 2016 were subject to revision. The unemployment rates for January 2020 through November 2020 (as originally published and as revised) appear in table A on page 7, along with additional information about the revisions. Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.
December jobs report: jobs actually declined in December; BUT employment primed for takeoff once pandemic abates -- Important: There was a huge amount of seasonality in this report. This is common for December, but the issue was greatly exacerbated because of the outsized impact of the pandemic. Take the large changes in some of the data with many grains of salt. I have been warning for almost 4 weeks that the December employment report might have a negative number. It did. At the same time, the internals are not nearly so bad as the headline.HEADLINES:
- -140,000 million jobs lost, 95,000 of which were in the private sector and 55,000 were in government. Comparatively, there were 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 21,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate fell -0.3% from 12.0% to 11.7%, compared with the January low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff increased 277,000 to 3,039,000.
- Permanent job losers decreased by -348,000 to 3,370,000.
- October was revised upward by 44,000. November was also revised upward by 95,000 respectively, for a net gain of 135,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.2 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- Manufacturing jobs increased by 38,000. Manufacturing has still lost -543,000 jobs in the past 10 months, or -4.2% of the total. About 60% of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
- Construction jobs increased by 51,000. Even so, in the past 10 months -226,000 construction jobs have been lost, -30% of the total. About 80% of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 8,900. Since February there have now been actual job *gains,* to the tune of 6,400 jobs, to a new 10 year+ high.
- temporary jobs rose by 67,600. Since February, there have still been -213,500 jobs lost, or -7.3% of all temporary help jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by 849,000 to million, compared with April’s total of 14.283 million.
- Professional and business employment rose by 161,000, which is still -858,000, or about 4% below its February peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.20 from $24.89 to $25.09, which is a gain of 5.2%(!) in the 10 months since the pandemic began. As with last March and April, these gains reflect that job losses occurred primarily among lower wage earners, who since May had been disproportionately recalled to work.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined by -0.1%. In the past 10 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -6%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.7%. In the past 10 months combined this has nevertheless fallen by about -1.6%. Still, about 90% of the loss from February to April has been made back up.
- Full time jobs gained 397,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs declined -471,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons decreased by -332,000 to 4.891 million. This is still an increase since February of 1,772,000.
SUMMARY: While the headline was a negative number, this was almost entirely due to huge declines of -372,000 in food and beverage establishments, and another -92,000 in amusement and recreation. Private education lost -63,000, and there were also sizable losses in local and state government. In contrast, all of the leading job groups showed equally sizable gains, and residential construction employment made a new decade-plus high. Among leading employment indicators, only the increase in short term unemployment was a negative. Full time jobs also showed gains, while part time jobs showed losses. Aggregate and average payrolls also rose sharply. While the average hourly wage increase can be put down to the heavily skewed nature of the new job losses, the aggregate increase which includes the total from all jobs, is a big positive, probably reflecting some annual raises. This is an absolutely poor report as to current conditions, particularly 10 months into the pandemic. On the other hand, the leading sectors once again show that the economy - including employment - is primed for takeoff once the pandemic is brought under control.
Comments on December Employment Report --The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly. Government employment declined 45 thousand in December. State and local governments lost another 51 thousand jobs. Leisure and hospitality lost 498 thousand jobs in December due to the surging pandemic. In March and April, leisure and hospitality lost 8.3 million jobs, and then gained about 60% of those jobs back. With the December job losses, leisure and hospitality is down 3.9 million jobs since February 2020. Earlier: December Employment Report: 140 Thousand Jobs LOST, 6.7% Unemployment Rate In December, the year-over-year employment change was minus 9.37 million jobs. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the November report. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg) This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In December, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.370 million from 3.718 million in November. This is good news. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in December to 81.0% from 80.9% in November, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.3% from 76.0% in November. Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping. Retailers hired 230 thousand workers (NSA) net in December. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted). This was a gain of 121 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted, in December. This might be distorted this year by a combination of seasonal hiring - and some bounce back in employment from the shutdowns earlier this year. But this an unexpected large gain for retail. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 6.170 million from 6.641 million in November. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 11.7% in December. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 3.956 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, however the previous two months were revised up 135,000 combined. The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. The good news is permanent job losses declined, and the number of employees working part time for economic reasons also declined. However, overall, this was another disappointing report.
The economy President-elect Biden is inheriting: 26.8 million workers—15.8% of the workforce—are being directly hurt by the coronavirus crisis - EPI Blog by Heidi Shierholz - We now have a full year of jobs data for 2020. This is an important moment to take stock of where things stand in the labor market. The official unemployment rate was 6.7% in December, and the official number of unemployed workers was10.7 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These official numbers are a vast undercount of the number of workers being harmed by the weak labor market, however. In fact, 26.8 million workers—15.8% of the workforce—are either unemployed, otherwise out of work due to the pandemic, or employed but experiencing a drop in hours and pay. Here are the missing factors:
- Some workers are being misclassified as “employed, not at work” instead of unemployed. BLS has discussed at length that there have been many workers who have been misclassified as “employed, not at work” during this pandemic who should be classified as “temporarily unemployed.” In December, there were 1.0 million such workers, a substantial increase from November. (Wonky aside: Some of these workers may not have had the option of being classified as “temporarily unemployed,” meaning they weren’t technically misclassified, but all of them were out of work because of the virus.) Accounting for these workers, the unemployment rate would be 7.3%.
- The number of officially unemployed is undercounted, even in normal times (and is probably worse now). Rigorous research that addresses issues like the fact that survey nonresponse is nonrandom—and that missing individuals are more likely than the general population to be unemployed—find that the official unemployment rate was understating the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points at the start of 2020. Accounting for that undercount yields 2.7 million unemployed workers who are misclassified as not in the labor force. This is conservative, given that there is good evidence that this problem is likely substantially worse in the coronavirus era. (Another wonky aside: this research also finds that the official labor force participation rate was understating labor force participation by 1.9 percentage points at the start of 2020, or by 4.8 million workers.)
- Some workers who are out of work as a result of the virus are being counted as having dropped out of the labor force instead of as unemployed. In order for a person without a job to be counted as unemployed, they must be available to work and actively seeking work. However, during the COVID-19 crisis, many people who are out of work as a result of the crisis do not meet those criteria. For example, many workers are out of work because of care responsibilities as a result of COVID-19 (e.g., a young child’s school being remote, or an elderly parent’s day care closing). These workers would not be counted as officially unemployed but are nevertheless out of work because of the coronavirus shock. To calculate how many there are, I estimate what the labor force level would be if the labor force participation rate had not dropped since February—the month before the pandemic hit the U.S. labor market—by multiplying the February labor force participation rate by the December population level. I then subtract this “counterfactual” labor force from the actual labor force. This yields an additional 4.9 million people out of the labor force as a result of the crisis.
- Millions of employed workers have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic. BLS reports that 7.5 million people who were working in December had been unable to work at some point in the last four weeks because their employer closed or lost business due to the coronavirus pandemic, and they did not receive pay for the hours they didn’t work. This is a substantial increase from November. These workers have clearly been directly harmed by the coronavirus downturn.
Adding up all but the last quantity above, that is 10.7 million + 1.0 million + 2.7 million + 4.9 million = 19.3 million workers who are either unemployed or otherwise out of the labor force as a result of the virus. Accounting for these workers, the unemployment rate would be 11.3%. Also adding in the 7.5 million who are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic brings the number of workers directly harmed in December by the coronavirus downturn to 26.8 million. That is 15.8% of the workforce.
Covid-19 Pandemic Likely Improved Your Commute to Work – WSJ - Workers across the U.S. can look forward to similarly improved post-pandemic commutes, thanks to the anticipated staying power of the work-from-home trend, say people who study transportation. Even after offices reopen on a large scale, many employees will likely go in only a few days a weekand a large share will have flexibility to travel at off-peak times, according to recent surveys. Fewer cars on the road during rush hour would mean less traffic congestion. “It will be as though maybe you added a lane each direction in the freeway,” said Tim Lomax, research fellow at the Texas A&M Transportation Institute. “This telework phenomenon has shown people that they don’t have to be in the office all the time.” The impacts will depend on a range of factors, including how much leeway employers give and the choices employees make. In big metro areas with robust public transit systems, some planners and academics worry that a large-scale shift from trains and buses to cars—a phenomenon the pandemic has put into motion—could worsen traffic snarls. More than 300 North American employers polled in October said they expect about 30% of their full-time employees will be working from home in three years, up from 5% three years ago, according to a survey by global advisory firm Willis Towers Watson. Overall, an estimated 18% of U.S. workers will likely work from home every day in the post-pandemic era, more than double the 7% who did beforehand, .Commute times nationwide had been edging higher before the pandemic. Nationwide, the average trip to work in 2019 took nearly 28 minutes, about two minutes longer than in 2010, according to the Census Bureau. In some of the biggest metro areas, car commuting collapsed in March, rebounded in late spring and early summer, then plunged during the fall as the virus surged, according to data-analytics company StreetLight Data Inc. In metro Chicago, commuting miles traveled in November were about half the pre-pandemic norm, StreetLight found. Metro Boston’s total wasn’t much higher at 57%, while Houston and Los Angeles stood at 65% and 77%, respectively.
With Guards Crippled by COVID-19, States Are Closing Prisons - States and counties are finding it hard to keep jails and prisons open as the virus ravages both prisoners and staff members. But transferring inmates can spur new outbreaks.Battered by a wave of coronavirus infections and deaths, local jails and state prison systems around the United States have resorted to a drastic strategy to keep the virus at bay: Shutting down completely and transferring their inmates elsewhere.From California to Missouri to Pennsylvania, state and local officials say that so many guards have fallen ill with the virus and are unable to work that abruptly closing some correctional facilities is the only way to maintain community security and prisoner safety.Experts say the fallout is easy to predict: The jails and prisons that stay open will probably become even more crowded, unsanitary and disease-ridden, and the transfers are likely to help the virus proliferate both inside and outside the walls. “Movement of people is dangerous,” said Lauren Brinkley-Rubinstein, a professor at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, who has been tracking coronavirus cases in correctional settings. “We’ve got really good examples of overcrowding equals more infection and greater risk of outbreak. We’ve got lots of evidence that even transferring people from one facility to the next is very dangerous.“There have been more than 480,000 confirmed coronavirus infections and at least 2,100 deaths among inmates and guards in prisons, jails and detention centers across the nation, according to a New York Times database.Among those grim statistics are the nearly 100,000 correctional officers who have tested positive and 170 who have died.Early in the pandemic, some states tried to ward off virus outbreaks by releasing some offenders early and detaining fewer people awaiting trial in order to reduce their populations, but those efforts often met with resistance from politicians and the public.More recently, as arrests in many areas have increased, jail populations have returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to data collected by the Vera Institute of Justice, a nonprofit research and policy group based in New York.That fact, combined with widespread infections among correctional officers, staffing shortages stretching back many years and strains on prison medical facilities, have pushed states as the pandemic progresses toward more concentration and crowding, rather than less, in part through closure of strained facilities.
Public input sessions on MDU's proposed natural gas rate hike set for March - The public can weigh in with state regulators on Montana-Dakota Utilities’ proposed rate increase that would raise the average household’s natural gas bill by $6.26 per month. The North Dakota Public Service Commission has scheduled public input sessions for March 2 at noon and at 5:30 p.m. A hearing on the proposal is slated to begin at 1 p.m. March 17 and could take several days. AARP North Dakota, which advocates for people age 50 and older, has intervened in the case. As an intervenor, it can participate in the hearing by providing testimony and cross-examining MDU representatives. AARP has concerns that such a significant jump in rates would adversely impact older residents. MDU seeks to collect an additional $9 million in annual revenues through the rate case. The company says the requested increase stems from infrastructure investments since its last rate case in 2018, including $53 million spent since then to improve the reliability and safety of its gas service. The PSC has already approved an interim rate increase for MDU that raises customers’ gas rates by $3.57 per month for the average household. It took effect Jan. 1. MDU customers could see a refund if the PSC were to reject an increase or approve a lesser amount than the interim rate. MDU has 114,000 natural gas customers in 75 communities across North Dakota, including Bismarck and Mandan. The PSC also is gearing up for another case that would significantly raise rates for some North Dakotans. Xcel Energy, which serves customers in eastern North Dakota and in the Minot area, is asking regulators to approve an electricity rate increase of $8.37 per month for the average household in winter and $8.53 per month in summer. The PSC will hold public input sessions for that case on March 4 at noon and 5:30 p.m. A hearing has not yet been scheduled.
North Dakota Republicans unveil $1.1 billion bonding plan — North Dakota’s Republican legislative leaders on Wednesday unveiled a $1.1 billion bonding package aimed largely at financing infrastructure projects across the state and using earnings from the state’s oil tax piggy bank to pay for the borrowed money. The proposal is similar to a $1.25 bonding proposal presented by GOP Gov. Doug Burgum last month, with one huge exception: The governor’s proposal includes $700 million in low-interest loans for political subdivision for roads, bridges and other construction projects. The legislative leaders’ plan would offer those funds as grants. Both proposals aim to pay off the bonds in 20 years or less using earnings from the state’s oil tax savings account known as the Legacy Fund, which voters enacted in 2010. The fund’s value is currently $7.8 billion and it’s expected to earn about $500 million in the next two-year budget cycle. Burgum and legislative leaders tout bonding as a way to quickly finance infrastructure projects without using other revenue sources or increasing taxes. Earnings from the fund are expected to be higher than the interest charged for the bonds, they say. “The beauty of our $1.25 billion bonding proposal is that it doesn’t raise taxes one single dollar or even rely on tax revenue for repayment of the bonds,” Burgum said in his State of the State address Tuesday. “We can save tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars for the state and our political subdivisions over time versus waiting for years and years to pay cash for infrastructure.”
Ohio governor signs 'stand your ground' bill into law - Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) signed a wide-ranging stand-your-ground measure into law on Monday.The Ohio Dispatch reports that S.B. 175 allows Ohio residents to defend themselves with a firearm anywhere they have a legal right to be, potentially including businesses and public spaces.An original version of the legislation granted civil immunity to places of worship and nonprofits when shootings in self-defense occur on their property. The Dispatch reported that the bill was expanded to state clearly that Ohioans can fire a gun in self-defense anywhere they are legally allowed to be.The bill's signing in to law comes just over a year after DeWine announced a push for gun control measures including expanded background checks following a mass shooting in Dayton, a push the state legislature largely refused to take up.In a statement to the Dispatch, DeWine said that he hoped his action Monday would inspire cooperation with the GOP-controlled state legislature on firearm control legislation."Everyone who cares about these issues knows that the provisions I am requesting in no way infringe upon the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens to own firearms,” he said. “They know what I am asking for is to make it harder for guns to get into the hands of criminals. These provisions will save lives. These provisions need to become law." The signing of the bill Monday was celebrated by gun rights groups including the National Rifle Association (NRA) Institute for Legislative Action. "Crimes can happen quickly and without warning. Most victims have a split second to react with the best course of action for their survival. By signing SB 175, Gov. DeWine ensures the law favors victims and not criminals. We look forward to working with the governor in the future to advance the interests of law-abiding Ohioans," said an NRA spokesperson.
Republican state senators in Pennsylvania refuse to seat reelected Democrat - On Tuesday, Pennsylvania Republican state senators refused to seat Democratic Senator Jim Brewster, whose narrow reelection victory in November is being challenged by his Republican opponent. When the presiding officer, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, a Democrat, objected to the motion and insisted that Brewster be sworn in, the Republicans, who control the legislative chamber, forced Fetterman from the podium and took control of the proceedings. The extraordinary move triggered a shouting match, while Fetterman stood silent at the podium as Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, a Republican, put forward a motion to replace him as presiding officer with himself. The motion passed on a party-line vote, after which the newly elected members of the Senate, with the exception of Brewster, were sworn in. Democratic state senators, after scattered protests, allowed the anti-democratic farce to proceed, while Fetterman left the chamber. Taking their lead from President Donald Trump and his co-conspirators within the Republican Party and the corporate-financial oligarchy, Brewster’s opponent, Nicole Ziccarelli, and state Senate Republican leaders are seeking to overturn Ziccarelli’s election loss by disqualifying many mail-in ballots from Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.
Georgia state Rep. Vernon Jones announces he's joining Republican Party - Former Georgia state Rep. Vernon Jones announced Wednesday that he will be joining the Republican Party. Jones, a former Democrat representing the 91st District in Lithonia, Ga., said in a post on Twitter: "Now more than ever, the Republican Party is in desperate need of leaders that know how to fight. I know how to fight." Jones caused a stir last year when he decided to resign from his position in the state's House of Representatives and commit to campaigning on behalf of President Trump, even speaking at the Republican Nationals Convention in August. He later flip-flopped on his decision to step down, saying he would not kowtow to Democrats, but said he was not interested in changing parties. Jones did not respond to Fox News' request for comment on what swayed him to change his mind. He has repeatedly accused Democrats and their supporters of being "thugs," calling them a "left-wing mob." Jones has also blamed criticism from his party for supporting Trump on the fact that he is African American. Meanwhile, Georgia Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock made history Tuesday night after becoming the first Black senator in his state. Jones' party swap comes on the same day Congress is slated to hold what is sure to be a contentious joint session to certify the results of the presidential election, which Trump and his supporters have maintained was rigged despite no evidence to support his claims. Several Republican members of Congress have pledged to vote against certifying the election for President-elect Joe Biden.
DeVos makes final pitch for school choice in letter to Congress - Education Secretary Betsy DeVos made a case for expanding federal tax dollars to students attending private schools while also urging lawmakers to resist calls to cancel student debt in her final letter to Congress on Monday. In the letter obtained by The Hill, DeVos reportedly argued that federal grants for K-12 education should be handled in a manner similar to federal college aid provided directly to students. "Given this precedent of choice and empowerment, it is impossible to understand how it is acceptable for federal taxpayer dollars to support a student attending the University of Notre Dame, but not for a student who wants to attend Notre Dame Prep High School," reads the letter. "Let me encourage you to fund education — that is, learning – not a Department of Education. Let me urge you to fund students, not school buildings," she continued. DeVos, who is set to depart from her role in coming weeks, also reportedly took aim at a major ask by activists to the incoming Biden administration to cancel student loan debt, which now totals more than $1.6 trillion nationwide, according to the Federal Reserve. "I hope you also reject misguided calls to make college 'free' and require the two-thirds of Americans who didn't take on student debt or who responsibly paid off their student loans to pay for the loans of those who have not done the same," the secretary wrote. The Biden campaign and in particular incoming first lady Jill Biden, who is a practicing professor of English at Northern Virginia Community College, hammered DeVos for months during the 2020 election season and vowed to overturn a rule put in place by the departing secretary strengthening protections for those accused of rape or sexual assault on college campuses. In September, Jill Biden told CNN that she didn't believe the Education secretary ever "felt invested in America's public schools" while accusing her of not having a plan to reopen schools safely in the fall amid the COVID-19 pandemic. "She didn't have a strategy, [President] Trump didn't have a strategy," Biden said at the time.
Reject the racialist renaming of San Francisco public schools! - Abraham Lincoln High School, Thomas Jefferson High School, James Madison Campus and George Washington High School, among many others, have been placed on a hit list of 44 school sites in the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) that must change their names on the basis of racialist politics and historical falsification. The effort is the culmination of a 2018 San Francisco Board of Education (SFBOE) resolution to rename schools. The SFUSD school names advisory committee, a board appointed group of district officials, educators, and “social justice” activists, will present a finalized list of name changes and suggested alternatives to the school board for approval later this month. The WSWS condemns the SFBOE’s move to rename schools and calls on workers and youth to reject the attacks on Lincoln and the Founding Fathers. Erasing the names of Lincoln, Jefferson, Madison and Washington from the district is a deeply reactionary attack on the monumental legacies of these four historical figures, as well as the revolutionary character of the American Revolution and Civil War. Based on falsifying history, the entire initiative obscures the politics and class character of all the figures on the list for removal as well as the names chosen to take their places. According to the race-focused criteria for renaming schools, the Great Emancipator and leaders of the American Revolution are cast aside as social pariahs. Though the committee’s criteria explicitly state that they will change the names of schools that honor “those who exploit workers/people,” staunch capitalist politicians who fall in line with the committee’s racialist politics will keep their names on schools in the district. This includes: A.P. Giannini, Bank of America founder and financial pillar of the San Francisco ruling elite; Philip Burton, a Democratic congressman renowned for his skill at gerrymandering and political mentor to Nancy Pelosi; and Willie L. Brown, first African-American mayor of San Francisco and political patron to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Chicago schools to resume in-person learning next week - Chicago Public Schools (CPS) plans to resume in-person learning for some students next week, although several teachers, who were directed to return to the classrooms on Monday to prepare, stayed home due to concerns about COVID-19. Starting next week, the country’s third-largest school district will begin allowing preschool and some special education students the option to return to in-person instruction for the first time since March or to continue online learning. CPS's phased reopening will permit students from kindergarten to eighth grade to opt into in-person classes beginning on Feb. 1. The district has not yet provided a date for high school students to return to in-person instruction. But the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) has vocally opposed the district’s reopening plan, citing safety concerns amid the pandemic, and noted several of its members were electing not to return “until buildings are safe.” The district told preschool and some special education instructors to report to classrooms on Monday, while staff for kindergarten through eighth grade will be instructed to return Jan. 25. “CPS wants to force pre-K and special education cluster teachers back into buildings on Monday, six days before Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s most recent stay-at-home order expires — and before health professionals can gauge any additional post-holiday risk of spread,” the union said in a release. Out of the more than 5,000 staff instructed to report in-person on Monday, about 1,800 requested special accommodations with about 600 receiving approval, CTU President Jesse Sharkey said, according to NBC Chicago. It was unclear how many of the staff showed up on Monday. The district indicated that it had approved accommodations to work from home for educators with a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recognized medical condition.
Chicago schools press ahead with reopening despite wide opposition among teachers and parents - Chicago Public Schools (CPS) is pressing ahead with its plan to reopen schools for in-person learning, with many Pre-K and special education teachers reporting to schools on Monday despite wide opposition among parents and educators. The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) has resisted calling for any joint action as it tries to pressure the administration of Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot into working with the union to craft a reopening policy it can sell to its members and the wider working class. The Lightfoot administration is pushing aggressively to reopen schools in the face of predictions that the month of January will see 115,000 deaths or more from COVID-19 in the US, an enormous increase from the record 77,000 deaths in December. According to the City of Chicago’s own COVID-19 dashboard, the city’s positivity rate is 10.2 percent, up from 8.6 percent the previous week. While the number of confirmed cases in the city has fallen slightly from the previous week, there has been a substantial falloff in testing over the holidays, with the number of daily tests roughly half what they were just before Thanksgiving.Even with a right-wing media blitz claiming schools can be reopened safely, the deadly reality of the pandemic is clear to the majority of working class Chicagoans. According to numbers released by the district, just 23 percent of families indicated they would opt for in-person learning this year. The number of students who actually report is likely to be far less than that, as CPS previously stated that students who chose to opt-in would be able to continue online until families feel safe returning. This means that while educators will be back in schools, most of their students will continue learning from home. However, in addition to teaching those students who are learning remotely, teachers will also have to deliver instruction and modify lessons at the same time for a small number of students in the classrooms, degrading the quality of education for both groups of students. This backwards model—which endangers all those present in the classroom—has already been implemented in districts and states across the US, and is widely loathed by educators.
Chicago Teachers Union leader partied in Puerto Rico as teachers were herded back into schools - On December 31, Chicago news station WGN published social media posts by Chicago Teachers Union Area Vice President Sarah Chambers enjoying a vacation in Puerto Rico just days before thousands of teachers were forced back into dangerous school buildings under Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s reopening plan. The incident revealed the essence of the CTU, which falsely claims to “represent” more than 30,000 educators in the nation’s third-largest school district. It is an outfit run by upper-middle-class functionaries who are completely insulated from the disastrous consequences their actions have and continue to produce for rank-and-file teachers and working class families in the city. In addition to poolside selfies from her Caribbean vacation, Chambers posted messages about the restaurant meals she was looking forward to in Old San Juan, the tourist section of the impoverished island’s capital. Puerto Rico has had 127,000 people contract COVID-19 and 1,200 deaths. Using the account name Sarah4Justice, Chambers, who was there along with CTU grievance coordinator Sara Echevarria, created posts oblivious to these conditions, not to mention the struggle of Puerto Rican teachers against the impact of hurricanes, earthquakes and savage austerity. In Chicago, district officials have ordered all pre-K through eighth grade teachers without approved medical exceptions back into buildings this month, regardless of their family’s health conditions, and threatened those who do not return with dismissal. This is despite a citywide infection rate of over 10 percent. Infection rates are closer to 20 percent in working class neighborhoods where low-wage workers are forced to work, rely on mass transit and live in large, multigenerational households., To make matters worse, public health experts believe the new, more virulent strain of the virus, which spreads particularly fast among young people, is already in Chicago, sparking the latest surge in cases. On Sunday, Chicago resident Arnold Herrera, a 19-year-old with no prior health problems, died of the disease.Under these conditions, there is immense opposition among educators and parents to the deadly reopening policy. More than half of the 2,100 teachers and 40 percent of the support staff instructed to return to work Monday did not return, according to district officials. On Sunday evening, CPS CEO Janice Jackson admitted in her letter to Chicago aldermen that only 37 percent of parents of pre-K through eighth grade and special education students have stated intention to return for in-person learning. Chambers’ social media posts further undermined the already tattered credibility of the CTU, which continues to posture as an opponent of Lightfoot’s forced reopening even as it blocks collective action by teachers against the murderous policy. In an effort at damage control, Chambers, who at first defended her actions, issued a statement of contrition and announced she would “step back” from the CTU executive board, at least temporarily.
Illinois high school student dies of COVID-19 -- Sarah Simental, an 18-year-old high school student from Tinley Park, Illinois, died December 26 just days after becoming sick with COVID-19. About one week before Christmas, Simental became ill with a headache and congestion. By December 23 her condition had rapidly deteriorated and she was taken to Silver Cross Hospital in New Lenox. After it became apparent that she needed intensive care, Simental was airlifted to the University of Chicago Medical Center. In a video interview shared by the press, Sarah’s mother Deborah Simental reported that at first it seemed that her daughter may have only come down with the common cold. However, her symptoms quickly became more concerning. “There was vomiting, and she was getting the chills, and the body aches,” said Simental. After having spent days in the hospital with no signs of improvement and being placed on oxygen machines, Sarah suffered a series of strokes which led to cardiac arrest. The Cook County medical examiner’s office reported that Simental’s death was the result of acute hypoxic respiratory failure due to COVID-19 infection, with non-traumatic cerebral hemorrhages as a contributing factor. She had no prior health concerns and was in perfect health before becoming infected with COVID-19. Sarah Simental is now one of 483 Americans aged 15 to 24 years old to have died of COVID-19. Her mother told the press, “Sarah is an example that it can happen to the youngest and healthiest people.” Sarah’s parents urged that people take the pandemic seriously and wanted to speak out on her daughter’s death to demonstrate that young people are also at risk of dying from the pandemic. Sarah’s mother, wanting others to understand her family’s pain and hopefully prevent similar tragedies, urged others not to take any risks, saying, “You’re going to have a Christmas next year. You’re going to have a Thanksgiving, you’re going to have a birthday, and my daughter along with hundreds of thousands of other people are not going to have those things with their family members anymore. You need to take it seriously.” “We are living it and it is an absolute nightmare,” Deborah Simental told reporters. In the last conversation between the mother and daughter Sarah told her mother she was sorry that she would miss being home for Christmas. Deborah assured Sarah that she should not worry and that they would celebrate the holiday after she recovered. Deborah said that Sarah replied saying, “Mom, it’s going to be okay,” before adding through tears, “And that was my last conversation with my daughter.”
As reopening plans stall, 1 in 3 students are testing positive for COVID-19 at some L.A. schools - With 1 in 3 students testing positive for the coronavirus in some Los Angeles neighborhoods, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to reopen campuses is clashing with the reality of a raging pandemic as many school districts opt for January shutdowns and superintendents call for clearer guidance on when it will be safe to unlock their campus doors. The swift-moving developments come one week after Newsom announced financial help — totaling $2 billion — that would go to elementary schools that reopen as early as next month and later to schools serving older students. Newsom cited the widely acknowledged harms of learning loss and social isolation — especially for Black and Latino students from low-income families — after in-person instruction shut down nearly 10 months ago across the state. Superintendents from seven of the state’s largest school districts on Wednesday called on Newsom to set a clear and mandated state standard for reopening campuses. They also faulted Newsom’s plan for seeming to rely on funds that would otherwise go toward important existing education programs. “Our schools stand ready to resume in-person instruction as soon as health conditions are safe and appropriate. But we cannot do it alone,” superintendents from Los Angeles, Long Beach, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Fresno and Sacramento wrote in the letter. “Despite heroic efforts by students, teachers and families, it will take a coordinated effort by all in state and local government to reopen classrooms.” Amid an unprecedented surge of coronavirus infections that has overwhelmed hospitals — and is widely expected to worsen in coming weeks — many districts, including those in Los Angeles, Pasadena and Claremont, have moved to keep campuses closed for the near future. “Extraordinarily high case counts of COVID are the barrier to opening schools in the Los Angeles area, and we encourage the governor, the Legislature, state and local authorities to make that job one,” said L.A. schools Supt. Austin Beutner. “Because until the case counts are within any reasonable standard … it’s not possible for schools in Los Angeles to be open, and that’s troubling for all of us.” L.A. Unified contributed an alarming data point in the letter: Nearly 1 in 3 asymptomatic students from some lower-income communities tested positive for the coronavirus during the week of Dec. 14. At the time of the test, the children reported feeling no effects of COVID-19 — but they had come to a district-operated site, typically with family members, for a coronavirus test. Asymptomatic carriers can spread the disease to others and might later develop symptoms. The student positivity rate was 32% in the Maywood, Bell and Cudahy communities, where families have a median income of about $37,000, according to district data, and 25% in Mid-City, where the median income is about $41,000. In contrast, the rate was 4.3% in Venice, with a median income of about $73,000, and 7.1% in the Woodland Hills, West Hills and Tarzana area, with a median income of about $81,000.
Beloved El Paso, Texas teacher dies from COVID-19 as Governor presses schools to reopen - The death of 35-year-old El Paso, Texas, teacher Zelene Blancas last week underscores the homicidal character of the ruling class policy of reopening schools and non-essential businesses amid the raging COVID-19 pandemic. While her school and district were teaching remotely at the time Blancas tested positive on October 20, Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott had pressured districts across the state to reopen, contributing to a major upsurge of the pandemic throughout the entire region. With Abbott renewing these efforts over the past month by seeking to tie school funding to districts’ reopening status, the district where Blancas taught, Socorro Independent School District, is now considering reopening in February. Blancas was hospitalized shortly after testing positive for COVID-19. She appeared to be gradually recovering over a few weeks, but then her oxygen levels suddenly dropped and she was intubated on November 22. In total, she spent two months in the hospital before dying of complications from COVID-19. Blancas had taught for over a decade, and most recently worked as a bilingual first-grade teacher at Dr. Sue A. Shook Elementary School. In 2018, millions of people watched and shared a video she posted on social media of her students greeting one another with their own chosen interactions. From the statements of her loved ones and coworkers, it is clear that the impact she had on both the students she taught and the community she loved reflected a deep commitment to education and a desire to reach every student regardless of his or her background or economic situation. Her humane efforts were not limited to the classroom. Following the mass shooting perpetrated by far-right domestic terrorist Patrick Crusius on August 3, 2019 that killed 23 and wounded another 23 at a local Wal-Mart in El Paso, Blancas organized a fundraising effort to raise awareness about bullying at her school. By any objective measure, Zelena Blancas was a pillar of kindness and humanity who improved anything she worked on and anyone she worked with. Her death is an enormous tragedy and traumatic event for her family, all those that knew her well and those for whom she was a beloved teacher.
Children’s Hospitals Grapple With Wave of Mental Illness - Efforts to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States have led to drastic changes in the way children and teens learn, play and socialize. Tens of millions of students are attending school through some form of distance learning. Many extracurricular activities have been canceled. Playgrounds, zoos and other recreational spaces have closed. Kids like Krissy have struggled to cope and the toll is becoming evident.Government figures show the proportion of children who arrived in emergency departments with mental health issues increased 24% from mid-March through mid-October, compared with the same period in 2019. Among preteens and adolescents, it rose by 31%. Anecdotally, some hospitals said they are seeing more cases of severe depression and suicidal thoughts among children, particularly attempts to overdose.The increased demand for intensive mental health care that has accompanied the pandemic has worsened issues that have long plagued the system. In some hospitals, the number of children unable to immediately get a bed in the psychiatric unit rose. Others reduced the number of beds or closed psychiatric units altogether to reduce the spread of covid-19.“It’s only a matter of time before a tsunami sort of reaches the shore of our service system, and it’s going to be overwhelmed with the mental health needs of kids,” said Jason Williams, a psychologist and director of operations of the Pediatric Mental Health Institute at Children’s Hospital Colorado.“I think we’re just starting to see the tip of the iceberg, to be honest with you.”Before covid, more than 8 million kids between ages 3 and 17 were diagnosed with a mental or behavioral health condition, according to the most recent National Survey of Children’s Health. Aseparate survey from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found 1 in 3 high school students in 2019 reported feeling persistently sad and hopeless — a 40% increase from 2009. The coronavirus pandemic appears to be adding to these difficulties. A review of 80 studies found forced isolation and loneliness among children correlated with an increased risk of depression.
Teaching at the intersection of social-justice activism and education - EPI Blog – video: Jesse Hagopian on Social Justice Unionism - Jesse Hagopian, teacher and co-adviser of the Black Student Union at Garfield High School in Seattle, WA, spoke about the intersection of social-justice unionism and the Black Lives Matter at School movement at EPI’s book event, “Strike for the Common Good: Fighting for the Future of Public Education.” “I think the fundamental problem with our education system is this fundamental problem we have with all of our systems and institutions in this country, and that is that they’re a product of an economic and political structure that is built on profit, racism, oppression, and inequality—namely capitalism,” says Hagopian.
Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education lays off educators, closes schools - The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE), comprising 14 state-owned schools, is now engaged in what officials are dubbing a “system-wide redesign” plan and “retrenchment” process to increase student-faculty ratios. The restructuring plan involves laying off faculty members, increasing class sizes, shutting down a number of state system schools and purging academic programs. The school administration is claiming that the changes are being made with the aim of reducing tuition costs for students, but no tuition decreases have been promised or announced. As with hundreds of other colleges and universities around the country, at PASSHE the pandemic has prompted massive revenue shortfalls, compelling school officials to lay off faculty and staff and reduce educational opportunities for students. According to a recent article in the New York Times, when the pandemic hit last spring PASSHE officials estimated revenue loss of $52 million, resulting from a decline in enrollment and refunds for students who refused to attend schools that unsafely reopened. PASSHE officials issued a statement in April saying all 14 schools would have to immediately cut expenses, excluding the other state-funded universities of Penn State and Temple. The losses, it was assumed, would be offset by $39 million in federal refunds. However, the latest projections estimate an even larger deficit than initially expected. As for the promised tuition decrease, Republican State Representative Brad Roae, from Crawford County, stated in early December that it is too early to ascertain cost reduction in tuition: “In my opinion, it is too early to predict any specific possible decrease since some of the savings could be used to expand educational opportunities for high demand careers.” In July, the Pennsylvania General Assembly passed with overwhelming bipartisan support Act 50, which was signed into law by Democratic Governor Tom Wolf. The act reduces costs by closing, or in their language “merging,” some universities together and reducing faculty and academics: California with Clarion, Edinboro with Slippery Rock, and Lock Haven with Mansfield Universities. The process for these mergers will begin as early as 2022. By October, more than 100 tenured and tenure-track faculty members received a letter of retrenchment per the union contract, alerting them that they will lose their jobs by the end of the 2020–21 academic year. The faculty members affected work at Mansfield, Lock Haven, Indiana, Edinboro and Cheyney Universities. A jobs bloodbath is underway. More letters were sent to unsuspecting workers on December 15, right before the holiday season. On March 1, first-year faculty members will be notified if they will be terminated at the end of the term.
Amazon, JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway health care venture to disband --A high-profile joint venture from three of the country’s biggest-name companies aimed at lowering health care costs is disbanding after three years, a sign of how complex and difficult to disrupt the U.S. health care system is. The company, called Haven, was a joint venture of Amazon, JP Morgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway and was announced with much fanfare at the beginning of 2018. But after three years without any major announcements or apparent breakthroughs in lowering health care costs and improving outcomes, the company said Monday it is disbanding. “In the past three years, Haven explored a wide range of healthcare solutions, as well as piloted new ways to make primary care easier to access, insurance benefits simpler to understand and easier to use, and prescription drugs more affordable,” the company said in a statement posted on its website. “Moving forward, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will leverage these insights and continue to collaborate informally to design programs tailored to address the specific needs of their own employee populations. Haven will end its independent operations at the end of February 2021,” the statement added. The venture had announced Atul Gawande, a doctor and leading writer and thinker on health care, as its CEO, but he departed in May 2020, a move that raised questions about the direction of the company at the time. The heads of the three companies involved had acknowledged how thorny the problems in the U.S. health care system are at the time they launched the venture. “The ballooning costs of health care act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy,” Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, said in a press release in January 2018. “Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable. Rather, we share the belief that putting our collective resources behind the country’s best talent can, in time, check the rise in health costs while concurrently enhancing patient satisfaction and outcomes.”
Drugmakers kick off 2021 with 500 U.S. price hikes (Reuters) - Drugmakers including Abbvie Inc and Bristol Myers Squibb raised U.S. list prices on more than 500 drugs to kick off 2021, according to an analysis by health care research firm 46brooklyn. The hikes come as drugmakers are reeling from effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has reduced doctor visits and demand for some drugs. They are also fighting new drug price-cutting rules from the Trump administration, which would reduce the industry’s profitability. They include more than 300 price increases from companies like Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline reported by Reuters late last week. Nearly all the increases were below 10%, and the median hike was 4.8%, down slightly from last year, 46brooklyn said. The firm’s analysis is based on data from Elsevier’s Gold Standard Drug Database. Abbvie raised prices on around 40 drugs including a 7.4% hike on rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, the world’s top-selling drug. Revenue from Humira is expected to top $20 billion next year. Bristol Myers hiked prices on around a dozen drugs, including cancer drugs Revlimid and Opdivo by 4.5 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. It hiked the price of blood thinner Eliquis by 6 percent. It said in a statement that it only raised prices on drugs with ongoing clinical research. It expects net prices, which include rebates and other discounts, to fall this year.
Can taking melatonin prevent COVID-19? Study shows major correlation - Researchers are finding new possibilities an over-the-counter supplement - melatonin - best known as sleep aid. Scientists at the Cleveland Clinic have discovered it’s a potential way to help prevent or treat COVID-19. Lead researcher Dr. Feixiong Cheng, Ph.D., and his team used artificial intelligence to comb through a COVID-19 registry at the Cleveland Clinic, which included nearly 27,000 people. They found people who take melatonin are nearly 28% less likely to test positive for COVID. The difference is even more significant for African Americans – the study said, “Importantly, melatonin usage is associated with a 52% reduced likelihood of a positive laboratory test result for SARS-CoV-2 in African Americans.” “When we got this result, we were very excited,” Dr. Cheng said in a Zoom call with KIRO 7. “If our findings can help the patients, that’s our goal and mission - and at the Cleveland Clinic as well,” he said. The study was published in early November, but an article published by The Atlantic on the connection between COVID and sleep sparked new buzz about the research.
Arthritis drugs cut risk of death from Covid-19 by a quarter Scientists have found that drugs used to fight rheumatoid arthritis cut the risk of death from Covid-19 by a quarter, in news that will come as relief to health systems around the world which are buckling under the pressure of a rising tide of hospital admissions. Two immunosuppressant drugs, tocilizumab and sarilumab, were found to reduce stays in intensive care units by up to 10 days, in data released by the UK government-backed Remap-cap study. It is one of only a handful of breakthroughs around potential treatments for the virus, and comes at a time when Covid-19 is putting extreme pressure on the British healthcare system. “Our findings are real and important and we hope they will be able to improve treatments for patients [in hospitals] where numbers are rising rapidly,” said Anthony Gordon, professor of anaesthesia and critical care at Imperial College London and UK chief investigator of the REMAP-CAP trial. The NHS announced that it will on Friday update its guidance, encouraging NHS trusts to use tocilizumab in their treatment of Covid-19 patients who are admitted to intensive care units. Supplies of tocilizumab are already available in hospitals across the UK and the government said it would be working closely with pharmaceutical giant, Roche, which manufactures the drug.
Fauci: US could soon administer more than 1 million vaccines doses per day - Anthony Fauci, the government’s leading infectious disease expert, said the U.S. could soon be administering a million coronavirus vaccines per day as the Trump administration faces criticism over its rollout of the shots. Fauci expressed confidence that the rate of vaccinations would ramp up after the White House fell far short of its goal of inoculating 20 million people by the end of 2020. As of Tuesday morning, more than 4.8 million doses have been injected. “Any time you start a big program, there’s always glitches. I think the glitches have been worked out,” Fauci told The Associated Press in an interview. “Once you get rolling and get some momentum, I think we can achieve 1 million a day or even more,” he said, adding that President-elect Joe Biden’s plan to inject 100 million Americans with the vaccine in his first 100 days “a very realistic, important, achievable goal.” Biden’s plan would amount to a million vaccines per day. Vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have begun being administered, though the White House has widely left plans for distribution and inoculations to state governments. FDA: It would be 'premature' to change the way COVID-19 vaccines are... Maryland takes steps to speed coronavirus vaccine rollout The infectious disease expert said he is hoping the country can achieve herd immunity by the start of next fall, which he said would require between 70 percent and 85 percent of the population to get inoculated. Fauci’s remarks on the vaccine come as the nation heads into what is anticipated to be the most dangerous phase of the pandemic, with cases and hospitalizations spiking across the country. There have been over 20.6 million confirmed cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began, and over 177,000 were reported Monday. Nearly 345,000 people in the U.S. have died.
A Big COVID-19 Vaccination Problem: The Cold Supply Chain Can’t Reach Everywhere --To mitigate health inequities and promote social justice, coronavirus vaccines need to get to underserved populations and hard-to-reach communities.There are few places in the U.S. that are unreachable by road, but other factors – many rural hospitals can't afford ultralow-temperature freezers or might not have reliable electricity, for example – present challenges. However, with government will and resources, these could be overcome.That is not true for much of the rest of the world. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are a great start that should be celebrated, but they rely on a complicated supply chain of freezers and temperature-controlled shipping methods called the "cold chain." That reliance on the cold chain raises equity and social justice concerns, since many parts of the world cannot support one. Researchers are working hard on vaccines that can avoid the logistical and economic nightmare of cold chain delivery.In poorer areas, more remote parts of the world and in places where the mean daytime temperature is high and electricity is unavailable or spotty, there are no mechanisms to keep vaccines at low temperatures. There may in fact be no roads – let alone airports – in many of these places either. And even if roads exist, they may be impassable at certain times of the year or inaccessible for political reasons or because of civil unrest.Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines need to be kept frozen and must rely on the cold chain to get anywhere. Only large wealthy countries have the resources to implement a well-developed cold chain, and that means huge parts of the world currently can't get a COVID-19 vaccine. This is bad for public health and fails to be equitable and just.Vaccines are coming that do not require ultralow-temperature storage. Some companies, includingAstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, are working on vaccines that need only refrigeration as opposed to storage at freezer temperatures. In late December, the AstraZeneca vaccine was authorized for use in the UK. Both vaccines should be available to the global market the next couple of months and could greatly expand vaccine reach.Both companies are also working with the COVAX Facility, which describes itself as "a global risk-sharing mechanism for pooled procurement and equitable distribution of eventual COVID-19 vaccines." The goal is to make vaccines available to all countries participating in the COVAX program, regardless of income levels. As of mid–December, 92 low- and middle-income countries have signed up. Refrigeration is better than freezing, but for remote locations, room temperature is best, and researchers are working on thermostable COVID-19 vaccines that won't need refrigeration.
The COVID-19 vaccination efforts in the US are proving to be a massive debacle -- In early October, Alex Azar, Health and Human Services Secretary, said that there would be 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by the end of the year. Due to supply chain issues, that estimate was quickly curtailed to 40 million doses a month later. The United States officially rang in their vaccination rollout on December 14 after emergency use authorization was granted for Pfizer’s vaccine. Moderna’s vaccine was inaugurated on December 20.Before the Christmas holidays, the White House coronavirus taskforce had assured the public that they were on track to vaccinate 20 million people by December 31. But by the end of the year, barely three million had received the vaccine. According to a detailed report by Bloomberg, the US has administered 4.66 million doses, or 1.55 million doses per week. This means that only 1.4 percent of the population has been vaccinated, and only 30 percent of the distributed vaccines have been given out. The United Kingdom had administered just over 947,000 doses, representing 1.42 percent of its population. At these rates, barely a third of the British and American people will have been vaccinated by the beginning of 2022. Internationally, after much fanfare and a media blitz, the intervening weeks have recorded a disastrously anemic administration of just over 13 million doses of these lifesaving vaccines across 33 countries. The world is organized into a nation-state system tightly interlinked by financial ties. Still, when it comes to a broad-based public health initiative, the utter incompetence of these state machines befuddles the mind. It will take a decade to deliver billions of doses to the globe’s population at the current pace. Presently, most of the vaccines have been given to healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities. The significant challenges ahead will be vaccinating the general population. With limited supplies and vaccination sites still undesignated, finger-pointing and blaming have quickly become common. The federal government has left it to states to decide how the rollout would take place with little funding to aid them in this herculean task. “There may have been an expectation from Operation Warp Speed or others that we’d give everyone the vaccine overnight. It was a logistics equation for them. If you’ve been in vaccines for a long time, you know that’s the easy part. Getting it into actual arms is the hard part.” Compounding the inadequate budgets of most exhausted state health departments tasked with managing and overseeing the rollout is the massive underfunding for these initiatives. In a September press release, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced a miserly $200 million to jurisdictions for COVID-19 vaccine preparedness. At a minimum, it has been estimated that $6 to $8 billion would be needed to fund these programs.
You can’t sue Pfizer or Moderna if you have severe Covid vaccine side effects. The government likely won’t compensate you for damages either -- If you experience severe side effects after getting a Covid vaccine, lawyers tell CNBC there is basically no one to blame in a U.S. court of law. The federal government has granted companies like Pfizer and Moderna immunity from liability if something unintentionally goes wrong with their vaccines. "It is very rare for a blanket immunity law to be passed," said Rogge Dunn, a Dallas labor and employment attorney. "Pharmaceutical companies typically aren't offered much liability protection under the law." You also can't sue the Food and Drug Administration for authorizing a vaccine for emergency use, nor can you hold your employer accountable if they mandate inoculation as a condition of employment. Congress created a fund specifically to help cover lost wages and out-of-pocket medical expenses for people who have been irreparably harmed by a "covered countermeasure," such as a vaccine. But it is difficult to use and rarely pays. Attorneys say it has compensated less than 6% of the claims filed in the last decade. In February, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar invoked the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act.. The 2005 law empowers the HHS secretary to provide legal protection to companies making or distributing critical medical supplies, such as vaccines and treatments, unless there's "willful misconduct" by the company. The protection lasts until 2024. That means that for the next four years, these companies "cannot be sued for money damages in court" over injuries related to the administration or use of products to treat or protect against Covid. HHS declined CNBC's request for an interview. Dunn thinks a big reason for the unprecedented protection has to do with the expedited timeline. "When the government said, 'We want you to develop this four or five times faster than you normally do,' most likely the manufacturers said to the government, 'We want you, the government, to protect us from multimillion-dollar lawsuits,'" said Dunn.
Trump officials debating cutting Moderna dose in half to speed up COVID-19 vaccination -Trump administration officials are in discussions with Moderna about speeding up the coronavirus vaccination process by only giving people half the recommended dose of the company's vaccine, a top adviser said Sunday. Moncel Slaoui, the chief science adviser for Operation Warp Speed, said there is evidence that giving people between the ages of 18 and 55 two half-doses "induces identical immune response" to the normal 100 microgram dose. During an interview with Margaret Brennan on CBS's "Face the Nation," Slaoui said the strategy "means exactly achieving the objective of immunizing double the number of people with the doses we have." But Slaoui has also strongly advocated against the idea that people need only one shot instead of the current two-dose regimen, so it's not clear how giving people two half-doses would be different. Slaoui's comments come as the U.S. vaccination program has crawled out of the gate. Distribution of vaccines has been slower than expected, and actual vaccinations have been even slower. The administration did not come close to its goal of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of 2020. Only about 4 million Americans received the first of two doses, and just over 13 million doses have been delivered, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Logistical problems have plagued the Trump administration’s distribution efforts, with much of the crucial “last mile” of work falling to underfunded local health departments. States are struggling to administer the doses they already have, leading many experts to question a strategy that effectively doubles the dose availability, but does not provide additional help to the jurisdictions. Slaoui told Brennan that he and others in the administration assumed that when states ordered specific numbers of doses, they had distribution plans in place.
Wisconsin pharmacist who intentionally spoiled COVID-19 vaccines believed they were 'unsafe' - A Wisconsin pharmacist who is accused of purposely trying to ruin hundreds of doses of the COVID-19 vaccine at the medical facility where he worked told authorities he did so because he believed the inoculations were "unsafe" and could change people's DNA, officials said Monday,according to The Associated Press.Former Advocate Aurora Health pharmacist Steven Brandenburg was arrested last week after hospital officials said he removed 57 vials of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, which constitutes 500 doses, from temperature-controlled storage overnight on Dec. 24 and Dec. 25. A pharmacy technician discovered that the vials containing the vaccine had not been refrigerated on Dec. 26. The hospital initially said in a statement that the vials were "inadvertently" removed because of "human error." Two days later, the hospital said in a statement that the individual was found to have purposefully discarded the vaccine and was no longer employed.In a statement on Dec. 28, the hospital said "some of the vaccine was administered to team members on Dec. 26 within the approved 12-hour post-refrigeration window" but that the rest had to be discarded. Advocate Aurora Health Care Chief Medical Group Officer Jeff Bahr later said that the doses people received on Dec. 26 would not be effective in protecting patients against COVID-19, according to AP. Ozaukee County District Attorney Adam Gerol said during a virtual hearing Monday that Moderna should test the doses to ensure that they are not effective before law enforcement officials can pursue additional charges other than the destruction of property.
Mounting mental health crisis among US health care workers - With coronavirus infections and deaths rising to astronomical heights over the past two months, frontline health care workers are increasingly experiencing acute mental and emotional distress. Research studies have shed light on the dangerous mental health toll that is being exacted on health care workers, who are facing extreme physical demands as a result of the growth of the pandemic. In a new study by Mental Health America (MHA), health care workers were found to exhibit elevated levels of anxiety, stress and emotional exhaustion. The study was carried out in November, a month that saw the initial resurgence of the pandemic, overwhelming hospitals. According to the MHA survey, 93 percent of health care workers were experiencing stress, while around 86 percent reported anxiety produced by the sudden overflow of sick patients. Some 77 percent reported feeling frustrated with their working conditions, and a similar percentage experienced physical exhaustion and burnout. Paralleling the extreme strain on hospitals all across the country, 75 percent of workers said they were overwhelmed. The survey revealed widespread worry about contracting and spreading the deadly virus. Among health care workers, 76 percent reported that they were worried about exposing their children to COVID-19, and nearly half were worried about exposing their spouse or partner. Another 47 percent were concerned about exposing their older adult relatives. Many health care workers said the pandemic left them feeling emotionally isolated and alienated in their workplaces, as well as having to cope with severe consequences in their home life. A significant 38 percent of health care workers said they did not feel that they had adequate emotional support. Among nurses, the number was 45 percent. Among workers with children, half reported that they were lacking quality time with their children or were unable to be a consistently present parent.
San Diego County breaks 4K case mark on New Year's; more contagious strain spreading - (KUSI) – San Diego County public health officials have reported 4,478 new coronavirus cases along with three additional cases of a new, more contagious variant of the virus first discovered in the U.K. The County Communications Office Friday reported 45 new hospitalizations on New Year’s Day from the coronavirus, three of them in intensive care, along with 58 new deaths. Those cases marked the 32nd consecutive day with more than 1,000 new infections and the 23rd overall with more than 2,000 new cases. It is the seventh time the 3,000 case mark has been crossed and the first time the 4,000 threshold has been reached. San Diego County’s cumulative totals are now 160,073 cases and 1,592 deaths. Neighborhood Healthcare Chief Medical Officer, Dr. James Schultz, joined Good Morning San Diego to discuss COVID-19 and to re-emphasize mask-wearing and social distancing. Dr. Schultz also talked about the crowding and delayed care and delayed ambulance times and their impact. The new cases of the variant, known as B.1.1.7, bring the total to four so far in San Diego County. The variant was first found in the U.S. on Tuesday in Colorado. The first San Diego case is in a man in his 30s with no history of travel, who first became symptomatic Dec. 27 and tested positive Dec. 29. He has been hospitalized and contact tracing is underway. The additional three cases, reported by county health officials Thursday, were found in two men in their 40s and one in his 50s. Contact tracing shows two men did not travel outside of the county while the third case has yet to be fully interviewed. None of the men had any known interaction with each other or the other confirmed case.
TSA screens more than 3 million travelers over New Year's weekend - The holiday weekend saw more than 3 million people pass through airport security checkpoints nationwide despite public health officials’ warnings against travel during the coronavirus pandemic. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported screenings of 805,990 people on Friday, 1.19 million Saturday and 1.3 million Sunday. The latter was the single highest checkpoint volume the TSA recorded since the beginning of the pandemic last year, according to TSA reports. The latest TSA numbers bring the sum of holiday travel, which is considered to have begun Dec. 18, to more than 17.7 million people, far above predictions. Public health experts have repeatedly warned travel, first for the Thanksgiving holiday and later for Christmas and New Year’s, is likely to spread the virus. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said Sunday that with increases in the virus getting “out of control in many respects,” it’s too late to clamp down on travel due to how many Americans already traveled abroad for the holidays. “That’s what we’re concerned about that in addition to the surge, we’re gonna have an increase superimposed on that surge, which could make January even worse than December,” Fauci said Sunday. “I hope not, I hope that doesn’t happen, but that certainly is possible.” Meanwhile, in his Sunday prayer last weekend, Pope Francis said he was “saddened” by the reports of widespread holiday travel. "They are good people, but they didn't think about those who were staying at home, of the economic problems of many people who have been hit hard by the lockdown, of the sick people," Francis said.
US hits 350,000 COVID-19 deaths amid fear of surge after holiday gatherings - More than 350,000 people have died of the coronavirus in the U.S., with another surge of cases and deaths expected in the coming weeks as a result of smaller holiday gatherings. The country reached the grim milestone early Sunday morning, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. More than 20 million people have been infected since the pandemic began nearly one year ago, according to the tally. Public health experts attributed a nationwide spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in early December to a large number of Americans traveling over the Thanksgiving holiday, and pleaded with citizens to stay home for Christmas and New Year's celebrations. Multiple states have reported a record number of cases, including North Carolina and Arizona, according to the Associated Press. New York hit 1 millions cases total as of Saturday, becoming the fourth state to do so along with Texas, Florida and California. Last month, federal officials approved two vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna for emergency use. The first round of doses have been administered to doctors, nurses and other front line healthcare workers as well as nursing home residents. The elderly and other patients deemed "high risk" are the next group of Americans slated to receive vaccines with public health officials estimating younger and healthy citizens can expect to be eligible for vaccination toward the middle to end of spring. The Centers of Disease Control and Prevention last week reported more than 2 million people in America have been vaccinated, far short of the 20 million figure the federal government initially said it hoped to top by this time. That number has since grown to 4.2 million as of Sunday. "We would have liked to have seen it run smoothly and have 20 million doses into people today by the end of the 2020, which was the projection," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease doctor. "Obviously, it didn't happen, and that's disappointing." Fauci said a targeted approach in assisting local governments in vaccine rollout programs is the best way for the federal government to make up for lost time. "There really has to be a lot more effort in the sense of resources for the locals, namely, the states, the cities, the counties, the places where the vaccine is actually going into the arms of individuals," Fauci said.
Three-quarters of infected Memphis workers remained on the job after testing positive for coronavirus - A study by health officials in Shelby County, Tennessee found that more than three-quarters of infected people during the month of November continued to work at least one day after testing positive. The seat of Shelby County is Memphis, the 28th largest city in the country. The study was based off interviews with 303 people, all of whom had tested positive for coronavirus. “We want to look at specifically how many days people worked while they potentially were infectious to others,” the Health Department Director for Shelby County, Tennessee, Dr. Alisa Haushalter, said. From this group, 76 percent stated that they continued to go back to work after being diagnosed positive with COVID-19. Of this group, 45 percent worked about one day before quarantining, 29 percent worked for two days and 10 percent worked for three days. In reporting the study, the Memphis Fox affiliate cited local medical expert Dr. Jon McCullers, who told the station that “[the] data shows that warehouses and factories are the most likely places where employees continue to clock into work even after a day or two from when they contracted the virus.” According to its official COVID-19 dashboard, Shelby County has had 67,198 positive cases and 891 deaths. The positivity rate in the county is 9.55 percent, indicating that the county’s testing capacity is being stretched beyond its limits. According to a separate report, almost 2,200 COVID-19 contacts have been quarantined due to exposure since December 15. As of August, there were only 1,700 contact tracers for the entire state of Tennessee, according to the state Commissioner of Health. While last month’s study does not attempt to explain why so many people continued to work, the fact is that major corporations have continued to operate at close to full capacity during the height of the pandemic, resorting to lies and threats to keep workers on the job under unsafe conditions. Memphis is a critical logistics hub for companies such as FedEx, UPS, Amazon, Nike, International Paper and Autozone. FedEx, which employs more than 30,000 workers in the area, is headquartered in Memphis, as is Autozone. The state gave out millions of dollars in grants to major companies in 2019, through the FastTrack grant program. The logistics companies have seen their package volumes grow substantially during the pandemic due to a rise in online sales, and have embarked on hiring sprees to keep pace with demand. Stock values for FedEx and UPS have gone up 96 and 43 percent during the pandemic, and UPS reported $59.7 billion in revenue during the first three quarters of 2020, according to Forbes. Meanwhile, the city of Memphis also had a poverty rate of 25.1 percent even before the pandemic, two and a half times the national average.
Over 2,900 US health care workers have died from COVID-19 - As the year 2020 has officially drawn to a close, the measure of the COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on health care workers has been nothing short of devastating and far higher than reported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). According to the most recent analysis published on December 23 by the Guardian and Kaiser Health News (KHN), more than 2,900 US-based health care workers have died from their infections since March. Many of these infections are directly attributable to insufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and hazardous working conditions such as long hours and high patient loads. A December 10 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine addressed to the assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the Department of Health Human Servies, Dr. Robert Kadlec, titled “Rapid Expert Consultation on Understanding Causes of Health Care Worker Deaths Due to COVID-19 Pandemic ,” notes that “the COVID-19 pandemic has created both acute and chronic stresses on the health care system and the health care personnel nationwide. At present, the nation lacks a uniform system to collect, collate, and report illnesses and deaths among health care workers due to COVID-19.” They continue, “Evidence suggests that COVID-19 infection is more prevalent among health care workers who lack appropriate PPE [personal protective equipment] or in work settings without a universal mask mandate. Whether an individual health care worker’s infection originated in the workplace or the community may be uncertain. Only a few studies report on efforts to improve the health and well-being of health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.” In September, the National Nurses United (NNU) published a report titled “Sins of Omission,” placing the death toll at 1,718 by September 16, of which 213 were registered nurses. By comparison, the CDC had reported only 574 health care worker deaths by August. According to the NNU, at the time there had been at least 258,768 cases of COVID-19 infection among health care workers, 166 percent higher than the official tally of 156,306 cases according to the CDC. At the time, the US had 6.9 million infections, representing 2.1 percent of the population. Health care workers then accounted for 3.8 percent of all infections.
Larry King moved from ICU after COVID-19 hospitalization - Longtime broadcaster Larry King was moved out of an ICU in Los Angeles on Monday as he continued to receive hospital care for COVID-19, according to NBC News.A source close to King's family told the news outlet that King has been in an L.A. hospital for about 10 days and added that King believes he contracted the disease from a health care worker who visited his home. One of his adult children also tested positive for the disease. King, 87, suffered a stroke and a heart attack last year, and lost two children to medical issues the same year. News first broke of his hospitalization for the virus on Saturday.
Texas hospitalizations hit yet another record — Texas has hit a new record high for COVID-19 hospitalizations as a surge in the disease caused by the coronavirus continued to strain state medical resources following holiday travel and gatherings. State health officials reported 12,563 COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals on Sunday, an increase of more than 240 from Saturday. It was the sixth time in seven days that the state reported record-breaking hospitalizations.Intensive care units in several parts of the state were full or nearly full Sunday, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services.The department reported 14,535 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 Sunday, 1,510 more probable cases and 50 fatalities. Texas has seen more than 1.8 million cases and more than 28,000 deaths. India has approved two COVID-19 vaccines, paving the way for a massive inoculation program. The vaccines are from Oxford University and AstraZeneca and local firm Bharat Biotech. In Britain, the prime minister is warning of new restrictions ahead as coronavirus infections soar. On Monday, the country plans to ramp up vaccinations using the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. And in Tokyo, Gov. Yuriko Koike is asking the national government to declare a “state of emergency” to curtail surging coronavirus infections. Concerns are growing ahead of hosting the Olympics in July.
Hospitals overwhelmed and bodies loaded into semi-trailers as California reaches breaking point with COVID-19 - The state of California has become the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. On New Year’s Eve, 585 COVID-19 deaths were reported in the state, making up more than one seventh of all deaths from the virus reported in the United States that day. More than 2.4 million people, in a state of 39 million, have been infected, with nearly 39,000 more diagnosed Sunday. In Los Angeles, San Diego, and the entirety of Southern and Central Valley California, hospital intensive care units have entirely run out of space. On January 1, there were over 20,000 people hospitalized throughout the state, by comparison at the height of the spike on July 8 only 8000 were hospitalized. The flood of coronavirus cases has exposed the underfunded, unprepared health care system in the richest state in the country. The Los Angeles Timesreports that “hospitals are scrambling to find staff” and that there is a “chronic shortage of oxygen tanks.” The paper quoted Christina Ghaly, the Los Angeles County director of health services, who described non-COVID outpatient services as down to a “skeleton crew.” She said the county was on the “brink of catastrophe.” Ambulances in Los Angeles county are waiting up to eight hours to offload their patients at hospitals, according to Cathy Chidester, director of Los Angeles County’s Emergency Medical Services. In some instances, ambulances are being redirected, or potential patients simply sent home. A nurse in Southern California sent the World Socialist Web Site a photo of a refrigerated semi-truck that had just arrived at the hospital they work east of Los Angeles. Hospitals and mortuaries across the state are placing rental orders for similar units to handle the mounting casualties as they overwhelm the healthcare system. Continental Funeral Home in Los Angeles told ABC 7 news that itself and every other funeral home they know are past their capacity to handle bodies. The owner reports that it is removing bodies at six times its normal rate.
Los Angeles limits ambulance services as COVID-19 infections skyrocket in California and nationwide - As of Monday, ambulance workers in Los Angeles, California have been instructed that, “adult patients in blunt traumatic … cardiac arrest shall not be transported,” [emphasis in original] if they cannot be revived by the emergency responders themselves. The directive was issued by the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors in response to the lack of intensive care unit beds caused by the ongoing surge of COVID-19 cases in the second largest city in the United States. There have been more than 400,000 cases recorded in Los Angeles since November 30, bringing the total number of coronavirus cases the region has suffered to more than 827,000. Since mid-December, there have been no spare ICU beds available in the region and are generally only freed up if a patient dies. This has produced scenes of ambulances lined up at hospitals for hours, unable to deliver their patients and acting as makeshift overflow units attempting to keep their charges alive. And of course, when paramedics cannot discharge their patients to hospitals, they are unable to respond to further emergency calls, creating an even greater crisis. Now, ambulances are being told that if they cannot resuscitate patients using their limited resources within up to 20 minutes “or until futility is reached” in the field, those people should be declared dead. “These directives can seem so abstract but we are working on patients way past 20 minutes. Our team works on patients for 45 minutes, even now. We break our backs trying to save lives and we are trying to send in everyone we can. We are doing the best we can with a horrible situation.” He said that if they do call a death in the field or the home of a patient, the Sheriff's Office takes over and calls the coroner. Further instructions have been issued to the public as a whole to not call 911 unless it is an absolute emergency. Those who do are often forced to wait in emergency rooms for up to 18 hours to receive treatment. Hospitals have been forced to set up cots in parking lots to take in patients. It is also proving difficult to transfer patients, as hospitals across the entire state of California are facing similar circumstances and are unable to take any overflow.
California reaches another single-day record for new coronavirus cases with 74,000 | KTLA After a relative New Year’s lull in confirmed infections, California posted a new single-day record for coronavirus cases Monday, logging more than 74,000, according to a Times tally of local health jurisdictions.That is 11% higher than the previous record, when 66,726 cases were registered Dec. 28. The state is now averaging about 37,000 cases a day over the last week, down from a high of about 45,000 in mid-December. But the situation is still far worse than the beginning of last month, when 14,000 cases a day were recorded. California also posted its sixth-highest daily tally of COVID-19 deaths: 379. That helped pull up the average number of COVID-19 deaths over the last week to 353 a day, the highest number yet.In Los Angeles County on Monday, an additional 79 coronavirus-related deaths were reported and an additional 10,851 infections. The county is now averaging 184 deaths a day over the last week — the equivalent of someone dying of COVID-19 every eight minutes — and about 13,500 cases a day, a count expected to grow because many testing sites were closed for the New Year’s holiday.
COVID-19 deaths hit 11,000 in L.A. County, as surge creates ‘a human disaster’ — Los Angeles County hit another disturbing milestone Tuesday, exceeding 11,000 COVID-19 deaths. Officials warned of dark weeks ahead amid a post-Christmas surge that is expected to put pressure on already overwhelmed hospitals.The county has reported nearly 1,300 deaths since Dec. 30, according to health officials, including 237 on Tuesday, according to data compiled by The Times.Over the past week, Los Angeles County averaged 183 COVID-19 deaths a day — the equivalent of one every eight minutes — and 13,500 new coronavirus infections a day, a count expected to grow with the reopening of testing sites after the holidays. The county’s cumulative case count now tops 841,000.L.A. County Supervisor Hilda Solis said Monday that while it took 10 months for the county to accumulate 400,000 coronavirus cases, it took only about a month to record an additional 400,000.“That is a human disaster, and one that was avoidable,” Solis said. “But I need to underscore that it could be worse. The situation is already beyond our imagination. But it could become beyond comprehension if the health restrictions in place are not fully obeyed.”L.A. County is a national epicenter of COVID, but the problem extends across many other parts of California. After a relative New Year’s lull, the state on Monday reported its highest number of new coronavirus cases in a single day, more than 74,000, according to a Times tally of local health jurisdictions. That is 11% more than the previous record of 66,726, which came Dec. 28. California has averaged 37,000 new cases a day over the last week, down from ahigh of 45,000 in mid-December. Still, the situation is far worse than it was at the beginning of December, when 14,000 cases a day were recorded. On Monday, California posted its sixth-highest daily tally of COVID-19 deaths: 379. The average over the last week was 353 a day, the highest yet. The state’s cumulative fatalities top 27,300.Even when figures are adjusted to account for the state’s population, California’s COVID-19 outbreak ranks among the worst in the country.Over the past week, the state has averaged 96 new daily cases per 100,000 residents — tying it with Rhode Island for the second-highest rate in the nation, behind Arizona’s 112, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The nationwide daily average for new cases over the same period was 64 per 100,000 residents.
CDC says Arizona has US's highest rate of new COVID-19 infections -Arizona has become the state with the highest rate of new COVID-19 infections, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracker reported Monday.The CDC's U.S. map indicated Monday evening that the Copper State had surpassed neighboring California as well as other hotspots in South Carolina and Tennessee to surge into the lead with a spiking rate of new cases. The state is now reporting an average daily case rate of more than 121 per 100,000 people, the only state in the U.S. averaging more than 100 new cases a day per 100,000 residents.Complicating Arizona's data collection is a large portion of the state where information remains incomplete pending approval from the Native American tribal authorities. High rates of COVID-19 transmission are being reported across the state, but in particular around the capitol of Phoenix, according to state health officials.Arizona is one of a handful of states that have been resistant to employ strict measures to control the virus. It does not have a mask mandate and remains largely devoid of restrictions on indoor dining, bars and nightclub activities that other states implemented months ago to slow COVID-19's spread. The state hit a record number of hospitalizations resulting from the virus last month, with more than 4,300 hospitalized across the state with coronavirus. Gov. Doug Ducey (R), briefly instituted stay-at-home measures last spring but declared as early as May that the state was "clearly on the other side of this pandemic" and relaxed those measures.
Cuomo says more contagious coronavirus variant found in upstate New York - The new, more contagious strain of coronavirus has been found in New York state, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Monday, making it the fourth known state with a case of the variant. An individual in Saratoga County in upstate New York has been confirmed to have the strain, sometimes known as the U.K. variant because it was first discovered in the United Kingdom. Cuomo tweeted Monday that the person has no known travel history, indicating the new variant is spreading to some degree in the community. Colorado, California and Florida have already reported cases of the new strain, and experts say they expect more cases to be confirmed in the coming days. Because the new strain is more contagious, it is expected to start making up a larger share of cases. "Epidemiological models and Britain’s experience indicate that, while only a few cases of the variant have been identified in the United States, it will likely become our dominant strain within a few months," Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, and Robert Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California-San Francisco, wrote in a Washington Post op-ed on Sunday. They argued that the risk from the new, more contagious strain further raises the urgency for quick vaccinations, and called for delaying the second dose of the vaccine in order to give first doses to more people more quickly. Cuomo told reporters in New York that the case is a man in his 60s who works at a jewelry store in Saratoga Springs, according to NBC New York. Cuomo urged people who visited N. Fox Jewelers between Dec. 18 and 24 to get tested immediately. The new strain is so far thought to be more contagious but not more lethal, experts say, and they expect vaccines will still combat it, though research is ongoing.
January 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations --Note: It will take a week or so for the data to adjust for lack of reporting during the holidays. The week-over-week growth in positive cases slowed prior to the holidays. Hopefully that continues after the holidays.I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.There were 1,638,829 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 177,669 positive tests.Almost 8,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.8% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.
Covid updates: Cuomo to make skipping the vaccine line a crime; Moderna increasing vaccine production - New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he plans to propose a law that would make it a crime to sell or administer coronavirus vaccine shots to people who are trying to skip ahead in line. Providers in New York can already lose their license if they fraudulently administer vaccines, though the law would add criminal penalties if approved by the state legislature, he said. So far, health-care workers and people living in nursing homes and assisted living facilities are eligible for Covid-19 vaccines."If there's any fraud in the distribution — you're letting people get ahead of other people, or friends or family, or they're selling the vaccine — you'll lose your license, but I do believe it should be criminal and I'm going to propose a law to that effect," Cuomo said at a press briefing.The Democratic governor also pushed for the state's hospitals to administer the shots faster, saying they could face fines up to $100,000 if they don't administer their allocated doses by the end of this week. Moderna is upping the minimum number of doses it expects to make this year by 20% to 600 million, the company said in a statement.The Massachusetts-based company said it's working to produce up to 1 billion doses of its Covid-19 vaccine this year. The company is on track to provide the U.S. with 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of March and an additional 100 million by June, the statement said.The federal government has agreed to buy 200 million doses of Moderna's vaccine with the option to secure an additional 300 million doses.Gov. Jared Polis told CNBC the state hopes to have residents who are 70 years of age and older vaccinated against Covid within six weeks. In an interview on"Power Lunch," the Democrat cautioned that the timeline could change depending on available vaccine doses.Polis announced late last month that Colorado residents 70 and older were being moved into the state's second priority group for the vaccine. People in that age category accounted for 78% of the state's deaths from Covid-19,according to the governor's office."We expect we'll be able to get through our age 70 and up population in about four to six weeks, given the supplies that we think we're going to get, but it all depends on the reliability of that supply, and it has been a little bit elusive to this point, " Polis said. "There have been weeks where we've got 20% less, there have been unexpected shipments that didn't match with what we expected," he added.
Fauci: You 'have to assume' pandemic is going to get worse Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said on Tuesday that America has to assume that the coronavirus pandemic is going to get worse.The U.S. is already dealing with the worst month of the pandemic thus far. The nation surpassed 19 million coronavirus infections on Sunday, and December is the deadliest month of the outbreak.“I think we just have to assume that it’s going to get worse,” Fauci said during an interview on CNN.He noted that the U.S. is seeing between 100,000 and 200,000 new infections each day and added that once cases begin to rise, increases in hospitalizations and deaths follow.“I hope we don’t just get to that level of continually seeing over 200,000 because, as you know, it staggers. You get cases, you get hospitalizations and then you get deaths,” Fauci said. “It’s highly predictable that once you increase in those number of cases in a staggered way every couple of weeks, you get increase in the number of hospitalizations.”Fauci also said that the surge has “gotten out of control in many respects,” adding that, given the surging case counts, “it really is very, very difficult to do effective identification, isolation and contact tracing.” Fauci said it's too late to try to control travel, since many Americanstraveled for Christmas despite warnings from public health officials. However, he implored those who did travel to not congregate among large numbers of people after they travel. “That’s what we’re concerned about that in addition to the surge, we’re gonna have an increase superimposed on that surge, which could make January even worse than December,” Fauci said. “I hope not, I hope that doesn’t happen, but that certainly is possible.”
January 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Record 7-Day Cases -- Note: It will take a week or so for the data to adjust for lack of reporting during the holidays. The week-over-week growth in positive cases slowed prior to the holidays. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,620,506 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 214,378 positive tests. Over 11,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 13.2% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.
Arizona reports record deaths, leads nation in new case rate - Arizona on Jan. 5 reported a record number of additional COVID-19 deaths along with new hospitalization highs as cases surge in the state with the fastest-growing rate of new infections.The Department of Health Services reported 253 additional deaths, exceeding the previous one-day record of 172 reported on July 30. The state also reported 5,932 additional COVID-19 cases, raising the state’s totals since the pandemic began to 567,474 cases and 9,317 deaths. The department said the additional deaths included 215 newly attributed to COVID-19 through a periodic review of death certificates. The agency could not specify when the 215 deaths occurred, Department spokeswoman Holly Poynter said.A record 4,789 COVID-19 patients occupied hospital beds Monday, an increase of more than 200 from Sunday, according to the state’s coronavirus data. Monday also saw a record 1,096 COVID-19 patients in intensive care beds.Arizona on Sunday reported a record one-day total of 17,234 additional cases. As of Tuesday, the state had the worst COVID-19 diagnosis rate in the nation with one person in every 126 people being diagnosed with COVID-19 over the past week. The diagnosis rate is calculated by dividing a state's population by the number of new cases.
U.S. records deadliest day of pandemic - The U.S. on Wednesday recorded the deadliest day thus far in the global coronavirus pandemic, with more than 3,900 deaths and 255,000 new cases reported by the COVID Tracking Project.The record came one day after the U.S. broke the previous record. On Tuesday, the daily death toll was reported at 3,775, along with a hospitalization record of more than 131,000 patients nationwide.On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University had recorded more than 361,000 COVID deaths in the U.S. and 21.3 million confirmed cases. For months, the U.S. has led the world in both categories. Globally, 87.3 million coronavirus cases have been recorded, along with 1.8 million deaths.On Wednesday, Georgia officially recorded more than 10,000 coronavirus deaths, according to the state Department of Public Health.Florida reported its second-highest daily total for new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, as seniors made frantic attempts to register for the scarce number of vaccination appointments. Florida reported 15,431 new coronavirus cases Tuesday and another 98 new resident deaths linked to COVID-19. The state has now reported 1,392,123 cases since the pandemic began. Florida’s one-day record for new cases was set New Year’s Eve, when the state reported 17,192 new cases.Some of the nation’s governors are growing impatient for hospitals and other health care organizations to vaccine their frontline workers.New York’s governor is threatening to fine hospitals that don’t use their allotment of COVID-19 vaccine fast enough. His counterpart in South Carolina says hospitals and health care workers have until Jan. 15 to get a shot or move to the back of the line. California’s governor wants to use dentists to dispense shots.With frustration rising over the slow rollout of the vaccine, state leaders and other politicians are turning up the pressure, improvising and seeking to bend the rules to get shots in arms more quickly. On the vaccine front, experts are working to confirm that COVID vaccines will work on the new coronavirus strain. The strain, first found in the U.K., has caused alarm because of the possibility that it might spread more easily. But even if that turns out to be true, experts say the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out will likely still work on the variant.
Florida Sets Single-Day Record for COVID-19 Cases With 17,783 Reported Wednesday – Florida shattered its single-day record for COVID-19 cases, reporting more than 17,700 infections Wednesday. The 17,783 new confirmed COVID-19 cases brought Florida's total to 1,409,906 since the outbreak began, according to figures released by the state's department of health. Another 129 virus-related deaths among Florida residents were reported, bringing the total to 22,317 Wednesday. Another 330 non-resident deaths have been confirmed in the state to-date, three more than were reported on Tuesday. Most of the newly confirmed deaths occurred days or weeks earlier. The positivity rate for new cases in the state was 12.59% in Wednesday's department of health report, slightly below Tuesday's rate but the fourth straight day it was above 12%. The positivity rate for all cases, including people who have already been tested, was 14.26%, the fourth straight day above 14%. In South Florida, Miami-Dade County had 314,742 cases Wednesday, an increase of 3,136 since Tuesday, along with 4,260 COVID-related deaths, three more than were reported Tuesday. In Broward County, there were 144,590 total COVID-19 cases reported, a daily increase of 1,404, along with 1,890 virus-related deaths, seven more than Tuesday. Palm Beach County had 87,683 cases and 1,923 virus-related deaths Wednesday, while Monroe County had 4,427 cases and 35 deaths.
Kentucky reports single-day record 5,742 new COVID-19 cases, 34 deaths -- Kentucky reported 5,742 new coronavirus cases Wednesday, the most ever in a single day since the pandemic began, Gov. Andy Beshear said in a news release. Of the new cases, 828 were confirmed in Jefferson County, according to a report from Kentucky Public Health. "Today’s numbers show how critically important a centralized effort and response is to defeating this virus," Beshear said in the news release. With Wednesday's report, Kentucky's positivity rate, a measure of the proportion of COVID-19 tests returning positive, rose from 11.4% to 11.7%, according to the governor's office. The rate had fallen as low as 7.95% on Christmas Day. Beshear also reported 34 more deaths in which the virus was a contributing factor, bringing the state's death toll to 2,806 since March. Among the victims were three women, ages 74, 77 and 88, and two men, ages 61 and 72, from Jefferson County. As of Wednesday, 1,778 Kentuckians were hospitalized with COVID-19, Beshear said. More than 420 patients were being treated for the virus in intensive care units, while 244 were on ventilators. For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms that clear up within weeks. The vast majority of people recover. Of Kentucky's 286,541 confirmed cases reported since March, at least 37,821 have recovered, according to Kentucky Public Health. But for others, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, the virus can cause severe symptoms and be fatal.
Louisiana hits new records for single-day COVID cases, hospitalizations - Another spike in Louisiana's coronavirus case count has led to a new state record for a single-day increase in cases, as well as a record amount of hospitalizations, since the onset of the pandemic last year. The Louisiana Department of Health recorded 6,882 new coronavirus cases Wednesday, eclipsing the last single-day record set about a week ago. Concurrent hospitalizations also rose to 1,993 statewide, surpassing the previous record of 1,991 set during the early days of the pandemic in April 2020.Wednesday's data also showed a significant shift in the positivity rate, with more than 18 percent of new tests across the state coming back positive.State and federal officials had warned there would be an influx of new cases in the wake of Christmas and New Year celebrations. So far that prediction has come to pass, with the new cases reported Wednesday outpacing surges seen in the wake holidays like Halloween and Thanksgiving. You can read more on Louisiana's latest coronavirus data here.
US marks deadliest day of Covid-19 pandemic as experts mull expanding vaccine distribution - The United States reported 3,865 Covid-19 deaths on Wednesday, the highest number of deaths reported in a single day since the pandemic began. The nation's death toll as of Thursday stands at more than 362,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, while the number of people who have been infected has topped more than 21.3 million. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's most recent forecast projected there will be between 405,000 and 438,000 deaths by the end of the month. The previous forecast, published December 30, projected up to 424,000 deaths by January 23. The ongoing spread of the virus and climbing number of deaths come even as the US is working to distribute vital Covid-19 vaccines -- a process that has been criticized for being too slow. ..... Meantime, hospitals are being flooded with coronavirus patients, with a record 132,476 patients in US hospitals on Wednesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project. ..... As of Thursday, a person was dying of Covid-19 in the county every 8 minutes. ..... At least 56 cases of a coronavirus variant first discovered in the UK have been identified in the United States, after health officials in Texas and Connecticut announced cases in their states. ..... Van Kerkhove pointed out that many mutations won't have much of an impact on the virus, but if a virus changes its genetics in just the right way, tests might not be able to detect it as easily, and vaccines might not work as well against it. The virus has more chances to mutate in countries like the United States, which is seeing unprecedented and uncontrolled spread. She pointed out that some countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, have done a better job controlling the pandemic. "It's completely up to us to be able to bring the virus under control," she said. "The virus is controllable, including these variants."
US Coronavirus: The US reports record deaths as CDC forecasts sharp rise by the end of the month - As the United States reported its highest single day of Covid-19 deaths, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned the overall toll could exceed 430,000 by the end of the month. The US reported 3,865 coronavirus deaths Wednesday, bringing the overall toll to 361,123 people in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In addition, the number of people who have been infected reached more than 21.2 million, according to the data.At the same time, hospitals are being flooded with coronavirus patients. On Wednesday, a record 132,476 patients were being treated for the virus, according to the Covid Tracker Project. Meantime, the CDC predicted Wednesday that January will be a devastating month for pandemic impacts, even as the federal government allocated $22 billion more for testing, contact tracing, surveillance and vaccinations, The CDC forecast, assembled from 36 coronavirus models, projected there will be 405,000-438,000 deaths by the end of the month. The previous ensemble forecast, published December 30, projected up to 424,000 deaths by January 23. At the epicenter of the virus is California, a state that has been among several to report record hospitalizations, surging deaths and healthcare systems struggling to meet the demand.There were 459 new coronavirus deaths Wednesday and a record high of 22,820 patients being treated in hospitals for the virus, California's Department of Public Health reported.More than 8,000 of those are hospitalized in Los Angeles County, where the emergency medical system is under a huge strain, the health department said. "This is a health crisis of epic proportions. I am more troubled than ever before, and in part, my concern is rooted in the reality that it will take so much more for us to slow the spread given the high rate of community spread," Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said in a statement. Elsewhere, Kentucky saw two highs Wednesday: 5,743 new cases reported in one day and a positivity rate of 11.7%, the highest rate in the state since May.
January 6 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations, Record 7-Day Cases - Note: It will take a week or so for the data to adjust for lack of reporting during the holidays. The week-over-week growth in positive cases slowed prior to the holidays. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.There were 1,605,799 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 243,346 positive tests. Over 15,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 15.2% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.
Record numbers of COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations across the US as pandemic surge continues - A record number of Americans died from COVID-19 on Wednesday and Thursday, according to data compiled by Worldometer. At least 4,100 people were confirmed to have succumbed to the virus on Wednesday, while the next day 4,134 were added to the death toll. Over the last week, the US reported an average of 2,742 deaths every day, a record that is only surpassed by the record set just over two weeks ago just before the Christmas and New Year’s holiday’s disrupted reporting. The total number of American dead since the pandemic started in March now exceeds 374,000 people. According to an analysis from Reuters, almost 1 in every 914 US residents has died from COVID-19 in less than a year. The number of new daily cases continues to increase with no end in sight. On Wednesday, the US reported 261,212 new cases, well above the weekly average of 228,925, already a record high number. Experts fear that these figures will translate into further hospitalizations and deaths, making January the worst month of the pandemic so far. The worst outbreaks are in Arizona, California and West Virginia, which all reported record daily deaths, based on weekly averages, according to Johns Hopkins data. The weekly average continues to increase by at least 5 percent in 47 states and the District of Columbia, suggesting an expanding outbreak. According to the COVID Tracking Project, founded by journalists at The Atlantic, there were more than 132,400 Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 on Wednesday, the highest number yet. The D.C. health department announced it would halt administering vaccinations early. The day’s violence prompted the city’s mayor to declare a 6 p.m. curfew and delayed the certification of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. The government’s disastrous rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines has exacerbated the already tense situation. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only 5.3 million doses have been given of the total 17.2 million doses currently available. Officials have expressed their desire for a faster rollout this month. According to official guidelines vaccines will be administered to all people 75 or older next month, in addition to educators, childcare workers, emergency technicians, as well as food and agricultural workers. From there, residents 65 years or older will be next in line, followed by transport and logistics workers, and those working in essential manufacturing and crowded settings, such as homeless shelters and jails.
Coronavirus dashboard for January 6, 2021: new infections vastly outpacing vaccinations (7 graphs) Total confirmed COVID-19 infections: 21,046,195*
- Infections last 7 days average: 219,253
- Total deaths: 357,258
- Deaths last 7 days average: 2,670
- Total vaccinations: 4,836,489
A study just released, based on random blood samples, suggests that as many as 50,000,000 Americans may have already been infected. Because some of the positive tests may be based on exposure to other coronaviruses, I do not think the number is that high. But my own guess is that the “true” number might be about 30,000,000, or 1 in every 11 Americans. Today I want to focus on comparing this winter’s breakout with last spring’s and summer’s, by comparing the top and bottom 25 States with the “poster children” for each of the past breakouts. Not only do *all* of the top 25 now exceed the infection rate of the 2 poster children for the previous breakouts, but many of the bottom 25 are in the same ballpark as well. Among the 50 States, only Vermont and Hawaii have some semblance of control. So far, only about 6 of the States have hospitalization rates equivalent to those of the past 2 outbreaks. But because hospitalizations lag infections by about 2 weeks, we can expect over half of all the States to have hospitalization rates at or near emergency conditions by the time Biden becomes President on the 20th. Many States are already showing a rate of deaths that is roughly half of that of the peak during the summer outbreak. About a dozen have already exceeded it. Note the inclusion of South Dakota as a recent prior peak - it wasn’t broken out separately for infections or deaths because, in view of subsequent data, it doesn’t stand out there. In other words, if deaths follow a similar trajectory, by Valentine’s Day we should expect to see a death rate for most States on par with South Dakota’s recent experience, and roughly 2/3’s of that of NY and NJ during the early spring outbreak. This is utterly ghastly, and it is already “baked in the cake.” Finally, here is the 7 day rate of new infections (finer line) vs. 7 day rate of vaccinations (heavier line)(note separate scales): New infections so far are completely outrunning vaccinations, by close to a 4:1 pace. Less than 175,000 vaccinations are taking place daily as of the most recent data point. We need to get that up to 1,000,000 per day if not more just in order to have the population vaccinated by the end of 2021.
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities as of 1/6 - Menzie Chinn - Weekly Covid-19 fatalities are falling according to CDC estimates, but those numbers are likely to be revised upward; going from last week’s release to this week’s, excess fatalities have been revised upward drastically. Unofficial estimates indicate a resumption of the upward movement in fatalities to a new peak (18690/week for week ending 1/2/2021, averaging 2670 deaths/day). Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 1/6/2021 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 1/5 accessed 1/6/2021 and author’s calculations. My experience with these series is that the CDC excess count series moves upward toward a line parallel to, and shifted upward from, the Our World in Data series (see this post). In other words, excess fatalities could be rising. Upward revision of excess deaths (calculated as actual minus expected) going from 12/30 vintage to 1/6 vintage for the week ending 12/19 is about 9500 (that’s a 7 day total). As hospitalization rates continue to climb, and in the wake of the massive travel surrounding Christmas holidays, I expect another surge in deaths – although the latest CDC ensemble model projects constant level of fatalities (albeit at a high level).
Pennsylvania confirms first case of UK Covid strain - Pennsylvania on Thursday joined a growing list of US states to have confirmed its first case of the UK variant of coronavirus. The case of the B.1.1.7 variant was confirmed in Dauphin county, which surrounds the capital, Harrisburg. Rachel Levine, health secretary, said in a Twitter message the state had been "preparing" for the variant by working closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and has "been sending 10-35 random samples biweekly" to the CDC since November to study sequencing and any potential cases of the variant strain. Colorado on December 29 became the first state to confirm a case of the UK strain in the US. It has since been confirmed in California (which now has at least six cases), Florida, New York and Georgia. According to the CDC, 52 cases of this variant have been detected in these five states, with half of those infections in California. Pennsylvania, which ranks sixth in the US by population, has confirmed 683,389 cases and 16,914 deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to the most recent data on Wednesday from the health department. That places it seventh among states for both infections and fatalities. Adjusted for population, the Keystone state has the 10th lowest per capita case rate in the US, with 5,338 infections per 100,000 people, according to a Financial Times analysis of Covid Tracking Project and US Census Bureau data. Its population adjusted death rate, of about 132 per 100,000 people, is the 12th highest in the country. Pennsylvania had 5,613 people in its hospitals with coronavirus, according to Covid Tracking Project data, down from a peak in mid-December of 6,346. A northeast state, Pennsylvania experienced a record surge in coronavirus cases, hospitalisations and deaths through late autumn, around the same time the Midwest had become the new hotspot in the US. These areas have since experienced a decline in their metrics, while outbreaks appear to be picking up again in sunbelt states.
Arizona reports 9,913 new COVID-19 cases, record 297 more deaths– Arizona health officials on Thursday reported 9,913 new coronavirus cases and a record 297 additional deaths from COVID-19.The state’s documented totals moved to 584,593 COVID-19 infections and 9,741 fatalities, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services dashboard.The previous record for deaths reported in a day, 253, came Tuesday.The health department said 238 of Thursday’s reported deaths were determined through the death certificate matching process. The department didn’t provide information about how far back the deaths occurred. As of Wednesday, Arizona had the highest coronavirus case rate and fourth-highest death rate per capita in the last seven days, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.Arizona’s hospitals continued to see record numbers of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients.The number of Arizona’s COVID-19 hospital inpatients climbed to 4,920 on Wednesday, 43 more than the record set a day earlier. The number of COVID-19 patients in the state’s ICU beds rose to a record 1,101.Statewide, suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients took up 57% of all inpatient beds and 62% of all ICU beds, both matching record highs.Overall, inpatient beds and ICU beds were each 93% full, matching the pandemic highs. Only 128 ICU beds were unused. Arizona’s weekly percent positivity for COVID-19 diagnostic testing, an indicator of how much the virus is spreading in the community, is the highest it’s ever been.
Coronavirus NC record cases increase as over a hundred die - North Carolina reported nearly 10,400 new cases of COVID-19 Thursday, by far the highest daily increase of the pandemic as the virus continues to surge across the state. The previous high was 9,527 on New Year’s Day, according to data from the state Department of Health and Human Services. The seven-day average for daily-case increases now sits at a record 7,600 with Thursday’s increase of 10,398 cases. Hospitalizations are now at 3,960 continuing a weeks-long increase. The state on Thursday reported 137 additional people had died due to the virus, for a total of 7,213 over the entire pandemic. Of all the tests Tuesday, the most recent day for which data was available, 13.5% came back positive. Over the last seven days, the average positive rate for each day was 15.2%. That’s triple the rate that state health officials want. Case and hospitalization reports are preliminary and subject to change upon further investigation. Thursday’s report continues a weeks-long trend of increased cases, hospitalizations and deaths. From the beginning of December through the first week of 2021, metrics have increased rapidly across the board. On Dec. 1, the seven-day average of new cases was just under 3,600, and 5,284 North Carolinians had died at the time. Hospitalizations were at 2,033.
SC sets record in newly-confirmed COVID-19 case report with nearly 5,000 cases - The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control Thursday reported almost 5,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state Friday, setting a new daily record. DHEC reported 4,986 new and another 91 probable cases. It also reported 28 confirmed and six probable deaths. This brings the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Carolina since the start of the pandemic to 315,353 and deaths to 5,217, according to data from the agency. Friday’s report included data from 15,691 test results with a percent positive of 31.8%.
Covid deaths: Record number in U.S. in last two days - A record number of people died in the U.S. from Covid on Tuesday and Wednesday, when a mob of angry Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol during a riot. A record 3,733 people died from the virus on Tuesday, followed by 3,865 deaths Wednesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over the past seven days, the country reported an average of 2,686 fatalities every day — a figure second only to the record set a little over two weeks ago. Holiday festivities have led to a predicted explosion in Covid-19 cases that have overwhelmed hospitals across the nation as a vaccine rollout got off to a rocky start. Over 361,200 people in the U.S. have died of the disease since the virus arrived in the U.S. nearly 12 months ago. Since then, almost 1 in every 914 U.S. residents has died of the coronavirus since the pandemic began, according to a Reuters analysis. D.C.'s health department on Wednesday said it halted vaccinations early after a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol building, prompting the mayor to impose a 6 p.m. curfew across the city and delaying the certification of President-elect Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. The number of new daily cases continues to soar, as well. The country reported over 253,100 new cases on Wednesday, bringing the seven-day average up over 222,600, the highest it's ever been, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. That's an indication of more deaths to come over the next few weeks as diagnosed people are hospitalized and some die. Arizona, California and West Virginia reported record-high daily deaths, based on a seven-day average, according to Hopkins data. The seven-day average of daily new cases continues to grow by at least 5% in 47 states and the District of Columbia, indicating an expanding outbreak. Across the country, more than 132,400 are hospitalized with Covid, the highest yet, according to the COVID Tracking Project, which was established by journalists at The Atlantic. The grim numbers come as U.S. officials race to pick up the pace of what's been a slower-than-anticipated rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Federal officials including Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Trump vaccine czar Moncef Slaoui have acknowledged that they had hoped the vaccine would be rolled out faster. More than 17.2 million doses of vaccine had been distributed as of Wednesday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but just over 5.3 million doses have actually been administered. Top officials at the CDC, including Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, have said they expect the rollout to pick up speed this month.
California sees two-day record of coronavirus deaths — California health authorities reported Thursday a record two-day total of 1,042 coronavirus deaths as many hospitals strain under unprecedented caseloads The state Department of Public Health’s website listed 583 new deaths, a day after 459 deaths. The previous two-day record total was 1,013 deaths at the end of December. California’s death toll since the start of the pandemic rose to 28,045. The state's hospitals are trying to prepare for the possibility that they may have to ration care for lack of staff and beds - and hoping they don't have to make that choice. California avoided surging cases for months, but now the virus is raging out of control there and across the nation in the wake of Thanksgiving holiday gatherings that authorities say vastly spread infections. Only Arizona tops California in cases per resident. A travel advisory issued Wednesday “strongly discouraged” people from out of state from entering California. It also said Californians should avoid traveling more than 120 miles from home except for essential purposes. The state’s previous advisory, issued in November, encouraged people to stay home or within their region without giving a specific range in miles. It outlined quarantine guidelines for out-of-state travelers but did not explicitly discourage travel. California this week ordered hospitals in the hardest-hit areas to delay many elective surgeries in order to free up space. In Los Angeles County, Methodist Hospital of Southern California convened an in-house triage team that makes daily evaluations “about the severity of critically ill patients that allows us to distribute resources to those who need it the most,” chief strategy officer Cliff Daniels said. The hospital isn't rationing care “and we hope we don't get there," Daniels said. However, guidelines posted on the hospital’s website warn: “If a patient becomes extremely ill and very unlikely to survive their illness (even with life-saving treatment), then certain resources ... may be allocated to another patient who is more likely to survive.” Los Angeles County, the nation's most populous with 10 million residents, is one of nearly two dozen in Southern California and the agricultural Central Valley that have essentially run out of intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 patients. Health officials warned Wednesday that hospitalizations will continue for at least the next three weeks as people who ignored social distancing rules to gather for Christmas and New Year's Eve fall ill. Hospitals statewide with room have been told to accept patients from others that have exhausted their ICU beds but in fact most of the state is reporting struggling to provide ICU beds, with non-COVID-19 patients spilling into corridors, tents and cafeterias. To the north, officials in Santa Clara County, with about 2 million residents, say 100 infected people a day are winding up in hospitals. “And as awful as it is, it could get worse,”
ICUs clogged on the way in, morgues on the way out in California's COVID crisis (Reuters) - Southern California is so overwhelmed with coronavirus cases that patients are backed up trying to get into hospitals, and corpses get stuck in another logjam once they leave. Slideshow ( 5 images ) At one hospital in Orange County, ambulances loaded with patients are lining up outside waiting for space in the intensive care unit, and COVID-19 patients fill the emergency room hallway. In nearby Los Angeles County, where people are dying of the disease at the rate of one every eight minutes, and other hard-hit areas, refrigerated trailers will be brought in to provide extra corpse-storage capacity. “When we get filled up with COVID patients, we can’t take care of the community in general,” said Dr. Jim Keany, 54, the managing partner for emergency physicians at Providence Mission Hospital in Mission Viejo. “Every bed is full, every nurse and doctor is occupied taking care of COVID patients.” One patient waited in the ambulance more than five hours before being admitted, Keany said. Despite strict stay-at-home measures that were fortified across most of the state last month, California, the most populous state with nearly 40 million people, leads the United States with nearly 2.6 million COVID-19 cases, over a million more than the next state, according to a Reuters tally of official data. Its death toll of more than 28,000 trails only those of New York and Texas. With the bodies accumulating, the California Office of Emergency Services said it has arranged to send 88 trailers to needy areas around the state. The Los Angeles County Coroner’s Office headquarters will receive 10 morgue trailers, in addition to 12 set up there in April, said spokeswoman Sarah Ardalani.
Los Angeles County orders ambulance crews to 'conserve oxygen' as it deals with a 905% increase in COVID-19 cases - Los Angeles County's Emergency Medical Services said Monday that to "conserve oxygen" during the COVID-19 crisis, ambulatory services should administer supplemental oxygen only to patients with oxygen levels below 90%. The EMS agency issued the guidance in a memo, adding that a level of 90% was sufficient for most patients to maintain normal bodily functions. Though some patients who have lung disease or sleep apnea can have a normal reading of about 90%, the Minnesota Department of Health's website says healthcare providers should be notified if the reading is below 95%. Los Angeles County, which serves roughly 10 million residents, has been hit with a wave of coronavirus cases during the holiday season. More than 9,140 new cases were reported Monday, for a total of 827,498. Seventy-seven new deaths were also recorded, for a total of 10,850. The county has recorded a 905% increase in its weekly average of positive cases since November 1. Health officials say that number is "likely to go up." "The steepness of this line is frightening in its implications for our healthcare system, our healthcare workers, and all the people we care about," Dr. Barbara Ferrer, the director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said during a press conference. "This is likely to be the worst month of the pandemic," the county added in a statement Monday. "The surge from the holiday gatherings is here, and cases will increase due to parties and travelers returning to LA County." County health officials characterized the lack of intensive-care-unit beds and other shortages as a "crisis" but added that hospitals had yet to make a formal declaration requiring them to ration equipment and triage patients. Such declarations would change the standard of care to focus on doing "the most good for the most number of patients," rather than putting the most possible effort into any given patient, officials said.
Ambulance Crews Told Not to Transport Patients Who Have Little Chance of Survival - The situation in Los Angeles County hospitals is so critical that ambulance crews have been advised to cut back on their use of oxygen and to not bring to hospitals patients who have virtually no chance of survival. Officials say they need to focus on patients with a greater chance of surviving. The measures were taken as circumstances are expected to become even worse in coming weeks, when patients sickened over the Christmas holiday will need treatment, leaving officials desperate for ways to increase capacity and triage care to focus on the sickest patients. Already, “many hospitals have reached a point of crisis and are having to make very tough decisions about patient care,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services. “The volume being seen in our hospitals still represents the cases that resulted from the Thanksgiving holiday,” she added during a briefing Monday. “We do not believe that we are yet seeing the cases that stemmed from the Christmas holiday. This, sadly, and the cases from the recent New Year’s holiday, is still before us, and hospitals across the region are doing everything they can to prepare.” Throughout the coronavirus-clobbered county, hospitals are moving to rapidly discharge ill patients who, in normal situations, would stay for continued observation. That has helped, but officials fear the flood of new patients — many with COVID-19 — is outpacing their ability to move less critical patients out. In a sign of the strain the surge is putting on medical supplies needed for severely ill patients, the L.A. County Emergency Medical Services Agency issued a directive Monday that ambulance crews should conserve oxygen by administering it only to patients who have oxygen saturation levels below 90%. To reduce demand on hospitals, the agency issued memos directing ambulance staff not to transfer to hospitals most patients who have virtually no chance of survival.
Nebraska governor says undocumented meatpacking workers will not receive vaccine - Nebraska’s Republican Governor Peter Ricketts has announced that the state government will “prioritize citizens and legal residents ahead of illegal immigrants” in the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, according to Taylor Gage, the governor’s communications director. The revelation of Nebraska’s decision to divide vaccine administration by citizenship status came after Ricketts was questioned during a press conference on Monday on whether undocumented workers in the state’s meatpacking plants would receive the vaccine. Ricketts responded by saying, “You’re supposed to be a legal resident of the country to be able to be working in those plants. So, I do not expect that illegal immigrants will be part of the vaccine with that program.” Pressed further by reporters, Ricketts said, “If you’re working in the plants, you’re supposed to be here legally. So, to get the vaccination, you got to be working here legally to be able to be part of the food processing program.” According to the Associated Press, undocumented immigrants make up about 14 percent of the meatpacking workforce in South Dakota and Nebraska. About 66 percent of meatpacking plant workers in Nebraska are immigrants. The employers, with the tacit support of state authorities, exploit undocumented workers and use periodic immigrations raids to terrorize these workers in order to suppress opposition to slave labor wages and conditions. The result of Rickett’s racist and anti-immigrant remarks will be to further intimidate undocumented workers who will fear that they might face deportation if they seek to inoculate themselves and their families from the deadly disease. This will mean more deaths in the meatpacking industry, which has already claimed the lives of at least 232 workers, including 22 in Nebraska. According to the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting, more than 44,500 coronavirus cases have been linked to meat processing plants around the US and 5,200 meatpacking workers have been infected in Nebraska. Of course, the coronavirus does not recognize nationalities. A recent university study found that outbreaks at meatpacking plants were responsible for nearly 8 percent of all COVID-19 cases in the United States during the early months of the pandemic.
Virginia Jan. 8 COVID-19 update: 5,238 cases statewide, VB breaks case record again with 500-plus, 25% positivity rate in Hampton | WAVY.com Virginia reported more than 5,000 new coronavirus cases for the third straight day on Friday, along with 37 new COVID-19 deaths. 500 of those cases were in Virginia Beach, Virginia’s largest city. Virginia Beach has broken its own record the past two days, with more than 400 and 500 cases on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Current COVID-19 hospitalizations did go down by 9 patients on Friday, but numbers are expected to continue trending up. Virginia hit 3,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time on Thursday. Statewide numbers:
- New cases: (+5,238, 387,917 total), trending up, at record levels
- Case incidence rate: 55.5 per 100K people, trending up, at record levels
- New deaths (+37, 5,312 total), trending up, 33 per day on average
- Current hospitalizations (-9, 2,991 total), trending up overall, at record levels
- Testing (16.7% 7-day average of positive tests), trending up overall, averaging around 26K tests (down recently around holiday)
- Vaccines administered: (135,863 total), 3,891 people fully vaccinated (not updated yet for Friday, Virginia’s first full vaccinations reported on Wednesday)
- Vaccines distributed: (481,550 total), data not updated yet for Friday
Maryland reports 3,732 new coronavirus cases as hospitalizations again hit record high - Baltimore Sun -As Maryland closed in on 300,000 total coronavirus cases Friday, the state again reported a record number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The state added 3,732 new coronavirus cases and 43 more deaths over the past 24 hours, bringing the total case count to 299,606 and death toll to 6,047. Maryland surpassed the morbid milestone of 6,000 lives lost to the virus Thursday, according to health department data. Meanwhile, hospitalizations for the disease continued to climb in fits and starts. The health department reported Friday that 1,885 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus, 51 more than a day earlier, and the highest number since the pandemic arrived in the state in March. Of those hospitalized, 447 people required intensive care — 20 more than the day before.The new hospitalization record comes two days after Maryland set the last one, a bump health officials partially attributed to a change in the way hospitals report their number of COVID patients. Following federal guidance, hospitals had excluded patients who’d been diagnosed with the disease but were no longer considered infectious. They now report all COVID patients in their care. Public health and hospital officials said Wednesday they still have room to treat patients who have COVID-19 and those who don’t. More than 28,000 people have been hospitalized with the virus since health officials began reporting the data. Meanwhile, Maryland’s seven-day average testing positivity rate was 9.16% Friday, the second day in a row the rate has decreased. On Thursday, the positivity rate was 9.31%. The rate, however, has remained above 9% since Jan. 2, a point not reached since early June, when the rate was on the decline from the pandemic’s initial surge.
Maine sets single-day record with 782 new coronavirus cases, 41 new deaths | WGME -- Forty-one new coronavirus-related deaths were reported in Maine on Friday. The death toll stands at 385.The Maine CDC reported 782 additional coronavirus cases in Maine on Friday, setting a new single-day record. There have been 28,407 coronavirus cases reported in Maine as of Friday. The Maine CDC says 23,803 of those cases are confirmed and 4,604 are probable. On Thursday, the Maine CDC reported 27,625 total coronavirus cases.The Maine CDC says 1,150 people have been hospitalized at some point during their illness and 11,690 people have completed isolations.Maine CDC Director Dr. Nirav Shah said the Maine CDC is trying to keep the recovery numbers updated, but because they have changed how they are doing their case investigations and with so many new cases, they are not necessarily following up with everyone to see if they are recovered or not. According to the Maine CDC, 205 people are currently hospitalized, including 56 who are in critical care and 26 who are on a ventilator.The highest amount of coronavirus cases are in Cumberland County with 8,400, York County with 6,170, Androscoggin County with 3,037, Penobscot County with 2,452, Kennebec County with 2,099, and Oxford County with 1,272. Coronavirus cases have been reported in all of Maine's 16 counties.As of Friday, there have been 46,633 cumulative reported COVID-19 vaccinations, according to state data.
Mass. Tops 400,000 Coronavirus Cases Amid Record-Breaking Surge - Massachusetts surpassed 400,000 confirmed coronavirus cases on Friday as it recorded another single-day record with 7,635 confirmed cases.The Massachusetts Department of Public Health also reported 74 new confirmed coronavirus deaths. There have now been a total of 12,708 deaths and 400,823 cases, according to DPH.The state had last broken the single-day coronavirus record on Thursday; it stood for one day.Another 277 deaths are considered probably linked to COVID-19. The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive, on average, has decreased to 7.49%, the department said.The number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 has decreased to 2,311. Of that number, 440 were listed as being in intensive care units and 280 are intubated, according to DPH. As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue their upward swing, Massachusetts is preparing to launch a pool testing program in schools that aims to help expand monitoring for COVID-19 and encourage schools to remain open with students attending in person.
Georgia sets single-day record with 10,393 confirmed COVID-19 cases — Georgia confirmed 10,393 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, setting the highest single-day total since the pandemic began. Friday’s total surpasses the previous record set on New Year’s Day by over 1,600 cases. The state’s total is now 620,247 with a 10.5% positive rate. Georgia also reported 80 new deaths that brings the state total up to 10,180 confirmed deaths. The rise in cases has called for several school districts, including Fulton, Cherokee and Henry counties, to move to all-virtual next week.The state’s new case record also comes on the same day that Gov. Brian Kemp gave an update on the COVID-19 vaccine distribution in the state.He said the state has the capacity to administer 11,428 doses per day. So far in Georgia, people allowed the vaccine include first responders, health care workers and those over 65 years of age in certain parts of the state.
U.S. surpasses 300,000 daily coronavirus cases, the second alarming record this week - The Washington Post --The United States on Friday surpassed 300,000 daily coronavirus cases, the second alarming record this week. The number, which roughly equates to the population of St. Louis, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati, comes about two months after the country reported 100,000 coronavirus cases a day for the first time, and one day after more than 4,000 people died from the virus, also a record. The United States has reported 21.8 million infections and 367,458 deaths. Here are some significant developments:
- President-elect Joe Biden announced that he plans to release nearly all available coronavirus vaccine after he takes office.
- Countries short on vaccine supplies can consider delaying giving people their second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, World Health Organization experts said in interim guidance issued Friday.
- The same vaccine appears to protect against a key mutation in the highly contagious new variants discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa, according to new data that is awaiting peer review.
- Modeling from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that more than half of coronavirus cases were spread by people without symptoms.
- Scores of essential products for consumers and health-care workers were sold at inflated prices on Amazon during the pandemic, a watchdog report published found.
- Moderna’s CEO said that the company’s vaccine is likely to provide protection “for a couple of years.” A separate study said the human body typically retains a robust immune response to the virus for at least eight months after infection.
- Iran’s supreme leader said Friday that he was banning the import of U.S. and British coronavirus vaccines.
The greater Washington region tallied the highest number of coronavirus infections Friday since the start of the pandemic, as several health districts across Virginia planned to enter the next stage of the state’s vaccine distribution plan Monday and begin vaccinating people 75 and older and front-line essential workers.Public health districts in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties and the city of Alexandria, as well as Southwest Virginia west of Roanoke will move to the second phase of vaccine distribution gradually, the Virginia Department of Health said.Danny Avula, the newly appointed coordinator for Virginia’s vaccine program, said the move is intended to ensure the state is not “holding anyone back” from administering doses.
As the pandemic death toll mounts, governments delay administration of second vaccine dose - Almost 1.9 million people around the world have thus far perished in the coronavirus pandemic. Since the beginning of December, a seven-day average of some 600,000 new cases has been registered worldwide each day, with little evidence of the current winter surge abating. The United States is the global epicenter of the pandemic. It reported a single-day record of 3,738 deaths on Tuesday, with another 233,513 new cases pushing hospital admissions for COVID-19 to a new one-day high of 131,215. The case fatality rate hovers around 1.6 percent. But with infections at the present rate, the death toll will inevitably be even more ghastly. In Los Angeles County, ambulance workers have been issued a memo by the county Emergency Medical Services Agency stating that “effective immediately, due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on EMS and 911 receiving hospitals, adult patients in blunt traumatic and non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest shall not be transported [if] return of spontaneous circulation is not achieved in the field.” In short, if after 20 minutes of attempts to resuscitate a patient, the patient does not breathe spontaneously, he or she will not be transported to a hospital. LA County Supervisor Hilda Solis told CNN: “Hospitals are declaring internal disasters and having to open church gyms to serve as hospital units. Our health care workers are physically and mentally exhausted and sick.” The health crisis in the nation is projected to grow even more catastrophic. There have been 365,859 deaths in the US since the first death was reported in February of last year. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, the death toll will hit around 502,600 by February 4. The IHME expects that another 135,000 people will die in the next four weeks, an average of 4,800 deaths a day. Despite these dire statistics, state and local governments across the country are forcing teachers back to the classroom and falsely promising a safe environment for students and educators. Governments around the world refuse to enact the broad-based public health measures—including the shutdown of all schools and non-essential businesses, with full income protection for workers and small businesses—that are required to contain the pandemic and save lives. In the face of the resulting explosion of infections and deaths, some countries are moving to stretch out the administration of COVID-19 vaccines, in short supply and poorly organized, by delaying the second dose of the two-dose regimen. Their position is that partially vaccinating more people more quickly will save more lives than offering fewer people the complete regimen.
COVID-19: Global vaccination stymied by nationalism and profit gouging - The world’s poorest countries are in grave danger from the long-term spread of COVID-19 after some of the richest nations, representing just 14 percent of the global population, have bought 53 percent of the most promising vaccines so far. As a result, it could take until late 2022 or early 2023 before even half the population in low-income countries are vaccinated. Many underdeveloped nations have reported relatively few COVID-19 cases and deaths, with the entire African continent of 54 countries reporting fewer deaths than France, but this is a gross underestimate of the real number. The shocking lack of resources to test for infection, the stigma attached to acknowledging the disease, and even the lack of universal death registration systems render the official statistics all but meaningless. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), welcomed the vaccines, saying they provided “a glimpse of the light at the end of the tunnel.” He nevertheless insisted, “we will only truly end the pandemic if we end it everywhere at the same time, which means it’s essential to vaccinate some people in all countries, rather than all people in some countries.” Ghebreyesus added, “vaccines will complement, but not replace, the many other tools we have in our toolbox to stop transmission and save lives. We must continue to use all of them.” In reality, the plight of the working class in the advanced capitalist and oppressed nations bear a remarkable similarity. While the imperialist centres have a monopoly on the vaccine, the anarchy of the market and the indifference of the financial oligarchy toward the lives of millions, makes for a vaccine rollout plagued by obstacles and half-measures. It is doubtful that any country can end its epidemic via vaccination alone. About 70 percent of the world’s population would need to be immunized to achieve “herd immunity”, a target unlikely to be met in the short-term, in part because most of the vaccines have not been approved for the under 16 age group. The race to procure vaccines against a fast-spreading virus that travels unimpeded by border controls has set in motion a ferocious national competition that threatens to prolong and intensify the pandemic. The irrationality of the capitalist system of production for private profit, not the public good, means the pandemic will kill many more people worldwide for years to come and resurge even in nations that manage to control it through vaccination. In addition to causing immense and unnecessary loss of life, the continuation of the pandemic will plunge billions of people into poverty. A handful of giant drug companies that own patents on the vaccines, resulting from costly research carried out largely in publicly funded laboratories, will rake in obscene profits for years to come. The manufacturers of just three vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca, expect to produce around 5.3 billion doses in 2021 to vaccinate about 2.6 billion people (two doses are needed to protect against the coronavirus). With rich countries having already pre-ordered large quantities—more than half of all the promising vaccines—the People’s Vaccine Alliance, including Amnesty International, Oxfam and Global Justice Now, warns there is not enough vaccine to go round. According to the Alliance, wealthier countries have bought enough doses to vaccinate their entire populations three times over, with Canada ordering enough vaccine to protect each citizen five times. The US has pre-ordered 1.1 billion doses of several potential vaccines, nearly double the number needed. Just three countries, Australia, Canada, and Japan, have secured more doses of potential vaccines than all of Latin America and the Caribbean—which have with more than 17 percent of global coronavirus cases.
The UK's new coronavirus variant is overwhelming hospitals as data suggests it may kill many more than the previous version - Infections from the new UK variant of coronavirus surged over the holiday period, pushing Britain's NHS hospitals beyond their capacity to handle patients. Teaching union officials also called for schools to be closed.A new analysis showed that the more transmissible variant of the virus could potentially cause hundreds more deaths per 10,000 patients.A preliminary study from Imperial College, London, released last week found that the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, is significantly more transmissible, adding weight to earlier government fears. Scientists had previously been hesitant to confirm early indications of this. The new study is a "pre-print," meaning that it has not been peer-reviewed. But the authors wrote: "There is a consensus among all analyses that the [new variant] has a substantial transmission advantage."The study said that B.1.1.7 can add between 0.4 to 0.7 to the existing R number — the rate at which the virus reproduces. The R number needs to go below 1 for cases to drop. The UK's current estimated R number is between 1.1 to 1.3. The variant now forms the vast majority of all coronavirus cases in the UK. B.1.1.7 is not currently considered to be any more deadly for anyindividual patient than the originally observed virus. But epidemiologists are warning that because it reaches many more people, the total number of deaths it will cause could be far higher than earlier variants. Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, explained the potential problem in a series of tweets: He compared the effects of two hypothetical variants: one 50% more deadly, and the other 50% more transmissible. In the first instance, he calculated that a 50% more deadly virus during a period with an R number of 1.1 would see 198 deaths per 10,000 infections after a month.But were that variant to be 50% easier to transmit, the same time period would see 978 new deaths per 10,000 infections. "The key message: an increase in something that grows exponentially (i.e. transmission) can have far more effect than the same proportional increase in something that just scales an outcome (i.e. severity)," he wrote.
Covid in Scotland: Half cases are of new variant - BBC News -A further 2,529 people have tested positive for Covid-19, 14.8% of tests carried out – and 11 more deaths of people who tested positive have been recorded in the last 24 hours There are currently 1,347 patients in hospital with a positive test, that is 255 more than a week ago. In ICU 93 people are currently being treated and 11 further deaths have been registered. Nicola Sturgeon says that the new virus variant accounts for 50% of positive cases. In the past 24 hours 2,529 people have tested positive with 695 of those in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area. People in Scotland have been ordered to stay at home unless they need to go out for essential purposes. Schools will remain shut until at least 1 February, with home schooling resuming next week. The first minister says the current situation is more serious than it has been “at any time since the spring” as she reiterates the latest restrictions. She says we cannot “rely solely on speeding up vaccinations”Businesses have been urged to “be responsible” and “not look for a loophole to stay open” Scotland’s approach to the virus compared with the rest of the UK and Europe has been “broadly working”, as case numbers here are lower The first minister returns to her original message during the March lockdown: “Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives”
Coronavirus: 5,325 new cases, 17 deaths reported as Ministers told UK variant in 25% of tests sampled - With some early progress being made in stemming the record rise in Covid-19 cases, the current surge can be “turned around” quickly if lockdown measures are adhered to, the chief medical officer has said. “We are now experiencing a considerable surge in cases and hospitalisations. We can turn this around quickly if we stick to the measures we know worked last spring,” Dr Tony Holohan said on Tuesday. A further 17 deaths of Covid-19 patients have been reported by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet). This brings to 2,282 the total number of deaths in the pandemic. Nphet also reported 5,325 confirmed cases of the disease, bringing to 113,322 the total number of cases in the Republic. Sixteen of the 17 deaths reported on Tuesday occurred in January. It comes as the latest genomic testing shows that 25 per cent of positive Covid-19 cases sampled in the State contain the UK variant, chief medical officer Tony Holohan told Ministers at a briefing today, according to Government sources. The new variant is thought to be far more infectious, but samples up to now had suggested it accounted for less than 10 per cent of cases. Of the new cases on Tuesday, 1,931 are in Dublin, 767 in Cork, 323 in Kildare, 322 in Limerick and 238 in Donegal, with the remaining 1,744 cases spread across all other counties. The median age is 36 years and 63 per cent are under 45. On Tuesday afternoon, there were 840 patients in hospital, including 76 in ICU. There have been 102 additional hospitalisation in the past 24 hours. The 14-day incidence of the disease stands at 674.4 per 100,000 people nationally, though this does not take account of a significant backlog of cases still to be reported. Monday marked the highest number of referrals from GPs for Covid-19 testing with 24,500 people sent for testing, exceeding the previous record of 15,000 one day last week. There were about 19,000 people swabbed in the community each day on both Monday and Tuesday, according to Niamh O’Beirne, national lead for testing and tracing within the HSE. In addition, about 10,000 swabs were taken each day in testing in the hospital system and the serial testing programme of nursing homes. The higher rate of infections since Christmas has increased testing to record levels and pushed the testing and tracing system to capacity, forcing the HSE to abandon the automatic testing of close contacts last week.
Covid mutation in South Africa 'more of a problem' than the one in UK: Official - A variant of the coronavirus identified in South Africa is more problematic than the mutation found in the U.K., Britain's health minister said Monday, as both strains spread rapidly. Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the BBC the variant found in South Africa was especially concerning. "I'm incredibly worried about the South African variant, and that's why we took the action that we did to restrict all flights from South Africa," he told the BBC's "Today" program. "This is a very, very significant problem ... and it's even more of a problem than the U.K. new variant." Both countries are struggling with a surge in Covid-19 infections, which have been attributed in large part to mutations in the virus that make it more transmissible. The U.K.'s new variant was first identified in Kent, southeast England, in December. The U.K. authorities alerted the World Health Organization to its emergence. Experts note that while the new variant spreads more easily, it does not appear to make it deadlier. Nonetheless, the U.K.'s hospitals are under pressure from a dramatic rise in infections and admissions. Questions have been raised over how the coronavirus vaccines will work against the new variants. Several experts have said they expect vaccines — such as those from Pfizer and BioNTech, and the Oxford University/AstraZeneca — to protect against the new strains. Earlier in December, WHO chief scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan tried to allay fears over the variants, telling the BBC it was "very unlikely" that the latest mutations would cause the current vaccines not to work. The WHO has said further investigations are required "to understand the impact of specific mutations on viral properties and the effectiveness of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines." Dr. John Bell of Oxford University said Sunday the variant identified in South Africa was worrisome in this regard, however. "They both have multiple, different mutations in them, so they're not a single mutation," he told Times Radio. "And the mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the (virus' spike) protein." He said there were questions as to whether the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccines would be "disabled" in the presence of such mutations. The team behind the Oxford University inoculation was investigating the effect of the variants on its vaccine, he said, adding that his gut feeling was that it would still be effective against the strain identified in the U.K., but he was more uncertain about the one identified in South Africa.
More than 500 new Covid-19 deaths in one day as SA passes active case landmark - SA hit a landmark for active Covid-19 cases on Tuesday night. Health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize announced that there were 176,356 total active cases across the country. This was 4,591 cases more than the 171,765 announced on Monday night. Before Tuesday night, the previous high of announced active cases was 173,590 — recorded on July 20. Less than two months ago, on November 12, the number of active cases was as low as 33,753. Mkhize said that 14,410 new Covid-19 cases were recorded in the past 24 hours, taking the national total of infections to 1,127,759. The infections came from 47,875 tests, a positivity rate of 30.1%. KwaZulu-Natal is still the virus epicentre, with 71,178 active cases. It is followed by the Western Cape (41,924) and Gauteng (31,681). There were also 513 new Covid-19 related deaths confirmed on Tuesday night, taking the national number of fatalities from the illness to 30,524. This is only the second time the country has recorded more than 500 deaths in a single day. Of the new deaths, 202 were in the Western Cape, 124 were in the Eastern Cape, 92 were in KwaZulu-Natal, 64 in Gauteng, 14 in the Free State and the Northern Cape, and three in Limpopo. To date, 920,879 recoveries have been recorded, a recovery rate of 81.6%.
Rising coronavirus cases, limited staff take South Africa's hospitals to brink of collapse - At the Retreat Community Health Centre in Cape Town, most patients who present with COVID-19 have mild symptoms. Clinicians on duty offer them paracetamol and send them home. But over the past few weeks, a growing number of people have come to the clinic struggling to breathe. "What they need is oxygen and they need it quickly," senior medical officer Andrea Mendelsohn said. The clinic currently has 10 oxygen canisters, and five or six people every day rely on them to breathe. With the number of COVID cases growing exponentially in South Africa as a new, more contagious variant of the virus takes hold, Dr Mendelsohn is worried her clinic will soon have too few canisters. "I don't want someone who would live if they had a little bit of oxygen to show up at my door and die because they cannot get oxygen," she said. "That is just ethically unacceptable." Just before the end of 2020, South Africa registered 1 million confirmed COVID cases, becoming the first African country to hit that milestone. More than 90,000 of those, or nearly 10 per cent, were reported in the last week of the year. With the number of daily new cases rocketing from 9,000 one week to 14,000 the next and then 18,000 on New Year's Eve, doctors have told the ABC South Africa's health system is on the brink of collapse.Mvuyisi Mzukwa, Vice-President of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), says the country's public hospitals are drowning. "There's not enough resources already," he said. "We are told that we are not yet in the peak of the wave, so I would expect it to be worse than it is now."
Analyzing Africa’s Second Wave of COVID-19 – Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- An average of 28 of the continent’s 54 countries have reported a higher number of new COVID-19 cases each week compared to the previous week since the beginning of October. This trend has resulted in an average of 22,000 reported new cases per day in December, eclipsing the peak rate of 18,000 during the first wave in July. Nearly half of the total cases recorded on the continent have been reported since October.
- Most recorded cases continue to be seen in South Africa and Morocco, which have among the best capacity for testing in Africa. Nonetheless, record levels of reported cases are observable continent-wide. Countries like Tunisia, Botswana, Uganda, Angola, Eritrea, and Burkina Faso, for example, have experienced steep increases in exposure during the second wave, though their cumulative number of reported cases remain relatively low.
- Mutations in the COVID-19 virus detected in South Africa and the United Kingdom (and potentially Nigeria) in December that make it significantly more transmissible raise prospects that the second wave could become even more dispersed. In South Africa, the mutated strain of the virus is dominant and driving the second wave. While the virulence of these new variants remains to be seen, it bears recalling that the second wave of the Spanish flu pandemic a century ago was more widespread and lethal in Africa (and other parts of the world) than the first.
- The surge may be particularly dangerous for public health systems in countries like Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo, all of which have recorded their highest number of weekly cases during the second wave and whose public health systems were starting with fewer resources before the pandemic. Even countries with stronger health systems and those that are not yet experiencing surges during the second wave are still at risk of being overburdened as the virus spreads into rural or active conflict areas. In South Africa, the rising number of hospitalizations has required care to be rationed to those patients highest on triage lists.
- One of the striking characteristics of the first wave of the pandemic in Africa has been apparently lower mortality and morbidity than other parts of the world, perhaps because of the youthful demographics in much of the continent. Multiple studies suggest, however, that the asymptomatic spread of the disease has been significantly more widespread than these numbers might indicate. The emergence of new strains of the disease may then pose new dangers in countries where the combination of a more limited death toll but significant economic losses may make containment difficult. Other studies and reports indicate that significant numbers of COVID-19 fatalities may have been missed during the first wave in countries likeSouth Africa, Sudan, and Nigeria.
Czech Republic coronavirus updates: Jan. 5, 2021: Czech COVID numbers among world's worst - The PES anti-epidemic score has risen from 85 to 89 points due to the rapid spread of the infection among seniors in the Czech Republic. This keeps the country at the highest, fifth risk level, according to data released by the Health Ministry Tuesday morning. This is the seventh day in a row the Czech Republic has remained on the fifth alert level; the number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 14 days has worsened as well. Last week the Czech Republic saw the world's worst epidemic numbers. The seven-day average of those infected per million inhabitants in the country of 10 million was 932 vs. 521 in neighboring Slovakia. In a televized interview, former Minister of Health Roman Prymula said he expected the number of new infection cases to further rise then peak at Jan. 15. He added that roughly 15,000 people have been vaccinated in the Czech Republic so far. The ministry is also set to announce changes in the way it calculates the PES score at its Tuesday press conference. It will factor in the number of COVID patients in Czech hospitals. The PES index is on the fifth level in all 14 Czech regions. The Pardubice region holds the highest index score at 94 points. The Plzen and South Bohemia regions score lowest. Vaccination of healthcare workers and seniors began in the country on Dec. 27. So far only a handful of cases have reported undesirable side effects and no life-threatening reactions; nearly 830,000 antigen coronavirus tests have been performed since November. There are currently 132,482 active cases in the Czech Republic, 5,777 people hospitalized, and 12,070 dead. The Health Ministry's morning data reports 12,860 new cases from Monday. Cases of the new UK variant of the coronavirus were confirmed in Slovakia Monday.
Tokyo reports daily record of coronavirus cases as government prepares to declare emergency - Tokyo on Wednesday reported a daily record of 1,591 coronavirus cases as the national government prepares to declare a state of emergency this week to cope with a new wave of infections. Those needing critical care in the capital also reached a record 113 people, according to the metropolitan government. Toshio Nakagawa, head of the Japan Medical Association, called the situation "extremely serious" but stopped short of criticizing Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga for acting too slow to contain the latest outbreak, as some have suggested. "Please take this virus seriously, and don't think it's just another flu," Nakagawa said, warning hospital care was getting stretched thin. Japan has confirmed more than 250,000 cases, including over 3,700 deaths. E Thailand is planning to expand testing to thousands of factories in a province next to Bangkok as it reported 365 new cases around the country on Wednesday and one new death. Authorities have focused their efforts on migrant workers mainly in the seafood industry in Samut Sakhon province that has been the epicenter of the new outbreak. They're also trying to trace itinerant gamblers who travel widely and are blamed for a second major hotspot outside Bangkok. Among the new cases, 250 are locally transmitted among Thais and 99 are migrant workers. The rest are overseas arrivals. That brings the total to 9,331, including 66 deathsThe government has ordered a partial lockdown around Thailand, with strict travel restrictions in some areas. Schools, bars, gambling parlors and other public gathering places have been closed, although malls, departments stores and restaurants remain open with curtailed hours. - China's Hebei is enforcing stricter control measures following a further rise in coronavirus cases in the province adjacent to the capital Beijing that's due to host events for next year's Winter Olympics. The National Health Commission on Wednesday reported another 20 cases in Hebei, bringing the province's total to 39 since Sunday. The top provincial official said residents of areas classified as medium or high risk, primarily in the cities of Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, were being tested and barred from going out. Those in neighborhoods ranked as medium risk could only leave after showing a negative test for the virus. Classes are shifting online and school dormitories are in lockdown. Also Wednesday, single cases were also reported in Beijing and the provinces of Lioaning and Heilongjiang, where mass testing and limited lockdowns have also been enforced. Liaoning's provincial capital Shenyang has ordered people in 16 districts to stay home and anyone seeking to leave the city must present a negative test obtained within 72 hours of departure, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
Coronavirus latest: Southern Africa battles with surge in Covid cases - A surge in coronavirus cases across southern Africa has underlined concerns about the possible spread of a more contagious variant that was recently identified in South Africa, the worst-hit country in the region. Zimbabwe and Mozambique both posted records for new daily cases this week, while infections also accelerated in Zambia and Malawi over the new year. The regional surge has followed a severe second wave in South Africa, where more than 1.1m cases have been confirmed in total, with over 30,000 deaths. Intensified genomic surveillance in South Africa’s second wave has brought to light the variant, called 501Y.V2, that “may be more contagious than the virus that drove the first wave of infections,” President Cyril Ramaphosa warned last week as he reimposed some lockdown measures. Like B.1.1.7, a variant that was recently identified in the UK, 501Y.V2 carries a mutation that appears to make it more transmissible. The 501Y.V2 variant has so far been recorded in at least six countries including South Africa. It emerged independently of B.1.1.7, which has subsequently been seen in at least 27 countries. This week Malawi reintroduced mandatory quarantine for arrivals from South Africa in part to control possible spread of the new variant, while Namibia is testing to identify whether new cases involve 501Y.V2, according to local media reports. Thousands of workers have crossed southern Africa in recent weeks during the region’s summer festive season. Regional border points including the Beitbridge crossing between Zimbabwe and South Africa have been congested due to coronavirus-related restrictions such as requirements to show negative tests. South African scientists have also been working with international colleagues to understand a separate mutation in the variant that affects antibodies. Vaccines would still broadly work even if it might reduce the efficacy of some, the scientists said.
Coronavirus tally: Global cases of COVID-19 top 87 million and U.S. sets record one-day death toll of almost 4,000 - The global tally for confirmed cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 rose above 87 million on Thursday, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University, while the death toll rose above 1.88 million. The U.S. has the highest case tally in the world at 21.3 million and the highest death toll at 361,207, or more than a fifth of the global total. As the nation watched events in Washington, D.C. with dismay, the U.S. lost 3,963 lives to COVID on Wednesday, the most in a single day since the start of the outbreak, according to a New York Times tracker , and counted another 255,730 new cases. In the last week, the U.S. has averaged 230,610 cases a day, numbers that experts had warned would materialize if Americans traveled in large numbers during the recent holiday season. There are currently a record 132,476 COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals, according to the COVID Tracking Project, breaking the record of 131,215 set a day earlier. Brazil has the second highest death toll at 198,974 and is third by cases at 7.9 million. India is second worldwide in cases with 10.4 million, and third in deaths at 150,336. Mexico has the fourth highest death toll at 129,987 and 13th highest case tally at 1.5 million. The U.K. has 2.8 million cases and 77,470 deaths, the highest in Europe and fifth highest in the world.
UK Covid death toll rises by 1,041 – a record rise for second wave - For the first time, the British government has announced more than 1,000 Covid deaths in its daily report on the virus, and revealed another record rise in cases. It said a further 1,041 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Wednesday. It brings the UK’s death toll to 77,346. Another 62,322 new cases were also reported, surpassing Tuesday’s record, after more than a week when more than 50,000 new cases were announced every day. Retrospective analysis of dates of death from Covid showed there were several days in April when more than 1,000 were recorded. But this is the first time that more than 1,000 coronavirus deaths have been announced in daily figures. NHS records showed that the worst day of the pandemic so far was 8 April, when a record 1,445 people died in 24 hours. But on 8 April itself, 938 deaths were announced in the daily set of figures. The latest death toll confirms that the UK is once again the the worst-hit country in Europe. Italy, which for the last few weeks had recorded more Covid deaths, now has more than 1,000 deaths fewer than the UK, according to a tally run by Johns Hopkins University. Italy’s new infection rate has been running at around 10,000 daily, compared with more than 50,000 in the UK, where a highly infectious new strain of the virus was first detected. Earlier this week, scientific advisers warned that there could be more than 100,000 Covid-related deaths before the end of the month based on current projections. Prof Graham Medley, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said: “It is almost inevitable that we will reach 100,000 deaths, and there is a chance that this will happen before the end of January if current rates of transmission continue.” Separate figures published by the UK’s statistics agencies for deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate, together with additional data on deaths that have occurred in recent days, show that there have now been 93,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.
Virus Has Recently Infected 1 in 50 in England - As England re-entered lockdown on Tuesday, new figures showed that one in 50 people had recently been infected with the virus, and officials warned that some restrictions on daily life could still be needed next winter. Speaking at a news conference, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to focus government efforts on rolling out its strained mass vaccination program intended to prevent a surge in infections of a highly transmissible variant of the virus from overwhelming the health service. With more than a million confirmed cases in the week ending Jan. 2, or 2 percent of England’s population, Britain is in a race against time to distribute vaccines. Mr. Johnson was speaking on a day when the government said more than 60,000 new cases were recorded for the first time. Standing alongside him, Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said that the number of daily deaths, now averaging around 530, was expected to rise and that if people did not observe a lockdown order to stay at home, the risk was “extraordinarily high.” He also warned that Britons might face some restrictions well into the future. “We might have to bring a few in, in the next winter for example — that is possible — because winter will benefit the virus,” Professor Whitty said. Mr. Johnson said that 1.3 million people had already been vaccinated and that he hoped that the most vulnerable, a group including the elderly and numbering around 13 million, could be protected by the vaccine within about six weeks, turning the tide in the battle against the virus. “We in government are now using every second of this lockdown to put that invisible shield around the elderly and the vulnerable in the form of vaccinations,” he said. Mr. Johnson said that England would be locked down until inoculations reached the four most vulnerable groups: residents in nursing homes and those who care for them, everyone over the age of 70, all frontline health and social care workers, and everyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable. “If we succeed in vaccinating all those groups, we will have removed huge numbers of people from the path of the virus,” he said. That goal, he added, could be achieved by the middle of February. But to do that, the pace of vaccinations will need to increase drastically.
5,000 deaths and 400,000 COVID infections in UK in first week of 2021- In the first seven days of this year, 4,952 people have died in Britain from COVID-19, with 400,639 newly infected. At the height of the pandemic in April over 1,000 people were regularly reported dead in daily tallies. This grim milestone was passed again Wednesday, with 1,041 dead. This was the 10th time during the pandemic that more than 1,000 people had died in a single day. The same day, the UK entered lockdown after new national restrictions were agreed by MPs. On Thursday, 1,162 deaths were recorded and 52,618 new cases. In England, 661 coronavirus deaths were recorded in hospital—the second time that daily total has passed 600 during this wave of the pandemic, with the 674 deaths recorded Wednesday. Total deaths in Britain, as measured by the government, stand at 78,508. Scientists advising the government warned this week that the total will reach 100,000 before the end of the month. Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told the Financial Times that it was “baked in” that Britain would suffer a COVID-19 death toll exceeding 100,000. However, it is likely that this tally will be reached even sooner. Data released by the UK’s statistical agencies December 28 revealed that just in England and Wales, there had been 87,000 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The spread of the new more infectious mutation is estimated by the Office for National Statistics to be responsible for around 60 percent of new cases. The R (Reproduction) value is estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3 nationally. In London, it is significantly higher at between 1.2-1.5. Figures released Thursday by the Department of Health and Social Care on testing and tracing revealed that 311,372 people tested positive at least once in the week to December 30. This was despite a significant drop in the number of people being tested over the Christmas holiday, as 29 percent fewer tests were conducted compared to the week to Christmas Eve. For the last 10 days, more than 50,000 people daily have tested positive. On Tuesday, the number of new daily confirmed cases topped 60,000 for the first time ever, with the same milestone breached again Wednesday. The same day, the Independent reported, “The UK has more new Covid-19 cases per capita than any other major country in the world, the latest data reveals.” The number of infections in the UK stood at 800 people in every million, “nearly quadruple the per capita rate of Italy, Spain and France, and more than 10-times worse than the new infections reported during the first wave last April.” It added, “Only the US has a per capita infection rate nearly equivalent to the UK of any country that has seen more than 1 million cases.” “The UK now has a total of more than 2.7 million confirmed coronavirus cases, making it the worst hit country in Europe in terms of cumulative cases.”
Portugal, nurse dies two days after the Covid vaccine -Porto – A 41-year-old Portuguese nurse, Sonia Azevedo, died on January 1, just two days after having the Pfizer-Biontech “Comirnaty” vaccine. To confirm the news of the death the same health institution in Porto where he worked, then relaunched by the Daily Mail online. The woman was a mother of two children, was healthy and had no pathologies that could foreshadow adverse reactions to the drug. Nurse Abilio Azevedo’s father told Portuguese news agency Correio da Manha that his daughter “was fine. She had no health problems, says the parent, who explains: “She was subjected to the vaccination against Covid-19 but had no symptoms. I do not know what happened. I just want answers ”. The family is now demanding justice. “I want to know what led to my daughter’s death.” The Portuguese Institute of Oncology said in a statement: “Regarding the sudden death of a health assistant since the IPO in Porto on January 1, 2021, the Board of Directors confirms the event and expresses sincere regret to family and friends in the certainty that this loss is felt here too ”. Meanwhile, the authorities have ordered an autopsy on the woman’s body to ascertain what really happened. Ms. Azevedo has worked for more than 10 years at IPO Porto, a national and international health institution of reference in the treatment of cancer. She lived with her family in Maia, near Porto, but died at her partner’s home in Trofa, a half-hour drive north of the Portuguese city
As Brazil reaches 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, Bolsonaro sabotages vaccination campaign - With the COVID-19 pandemic reaching new catastrophic proportions in Brazil, the country’s fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro is actively working to sabotage a vaccination program and take the murderous “herd immunity policy,” which he has openly advocated since the arrival of the pandemic in Brazil, to its ultimate consequences. On Thursday, after more than 1,000 deaths were recorded for the third day in a row, Brazil reached the terrible milestone of 200,000 COVID-19 deaths. High infection rates, which are yet to reflect the explosive impact of holiday events, are reflected in the overcrowding of hospitals throughout the country. A new patient suspected of having COVID-19 is pulled into the Regional Hospital of Samambaia, which specializes in the care of coronavirus patients in Brasilia, Brazil, Thursday, Jan. 7, 2021. (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres) A number of hospitals in São Paulo, the country's largest metropolis, have already reached 100 percent capacity. In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second largest city, there is a queue of 164 people waiting for an ICU bed. In Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais’ capital, the ICU bed occupation rate is close to 90 percent. Belém do Pará reached 96 percent of the ICU capacity, after the government closed COVID-19 treatment centers. The most critical situation in the country is, once again, in Manaus. With scenes of patients being cared for amid the dead in overcrowded hospitals and backhoes digging mass graves for victims of COVID-19 still fresh in the city’s memory, the Amazonian capital declared a second collapse of its health care system in just nine months. Almost daily, Manaus has been recording record hospital admissions. On Wednesday, 221 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, a number significantly higher than the peak of 168 recorded in April. On the same day, the occupation of the ICU beds reached 94 percent, approaching the 96 percent reached in April. Private network ICU beds have already reached full capacity. The calamitous situation inside the hospitals was summarized in an article published by Folha de São Paulo: “a scenario of overcrowding, lack of beds, stretchers in the corridors and absence of social distancing.” About a week ago, refrigerated chambers were once again installed in the hospitals facing the imminent collapse of their morgues.
Egyptian hospitals run out of oxygen, killing COVID-19 patients in ICU wards - Video clips of the chaotic and tragic scenes in intensive care units (ICU) treating COVID-19 patients that ran out of oxygen supplies have provoked shock and outrage throughout Egypt. On Saturday, video shot by a distressed visitor at the Zefta general hospital in the Gharbiya governorate, north east of the capital Cairo, captured the terrible scene in a ward where the oxygen had run out. It showed a woman running up and down the aisles shouting, “I will expose you everywhere… You filthy government!”, and filming rooms showing patients struggling on their beds and members of the medical team collapsed on the floor. Abdel Nasser Hemida, undersecretary in Gharbiya’s health ministry, denied that oxygen supplies had run out. Just hours later, Ahmed Mamdouh filmed the scene at an ICU in the el-Husseiniya hospital, in al-Sharqia governorate, northeast of Cairo. He was at the hospital visiting his aunt when the patients—including his aunt—died after the oxygen level fell below two percent, leaving neither enough pressure nor sufficient oxygen to save the patients' lives. The clip shows patients struggling to breathe, people screaming and medical staff desperately trying to save patients. Mamdouh is heard saying, “Everyone in the ICU has died… there’s no oxygen.” The image of one nurse, collapsed on the floor in a corner with the fear in her eyes visible through a visor and mask is heart breaking. It has become a nationwide scandal. One social media user tweeted, “No one should experience that!” Another tweeted, “The situation in Egypt is getting worse. Help us.” Many offered their support for the nurse, urging her not to give up. Other spoke of fears for their own safety. According to Egypt Watch, problems with oxygen supplies in public hospitals are a frequent occurrence, exacerbated by the pandemic and the health ministry’s lack of preparations, with doctors crying out for medical supplies, including oxygen. The manager of Hamool Hospital in Kafr Al-Sheikh, in the Nile Delta, made an appeal on Facebook for oxygen cylinders, only to be referred for investigation by the authorities. This is the government’s standard response to medical professionals who dare to speak out against the disastrous state of the country’s healthcare system or criticize the government’s handling of the pandemic.
China Again Denies Pathetic WHO Access To Investigate COVID Outbreak - It is now over a year since the coronavirus outbreak began in China, and yet again a team of World Health Organisation investigators has been denied access to the country to investigate where it came from. Ten WHO officials were due to enter China this week to finally begin investigating, with a promise to look into the Wuhan Institute of Virology as a potential source of the pandemic.However, the team were denied entry due to visa issues, according to WHO’s emergencies director Michael Ryan.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organisation announced that he is “disappointed” that the Chinese government has once again blocked the investigators from entering.“I have been assured that China is speeding up the internal procedure of the earliest possible deployment,” Tedros said, adding "We’re eager to get the mission under way as soon as possible.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told the BBC “there might be some misunderstanding” and “there’s no need to read too much into it”. Top epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski says that the massive drop in influenza cases can be attributed to the fact that many are being falsely counted as COVID-19 cases. Wittkowski, former Head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at Rockefeller University, cautioned that, “Influenza has been renamed COVID-19 in large part.” Chinese officials previously refused to confirm any dates for the arrival of the team, and it is blatantly obvious that they are unwelcome in the country, with the government continuing to silence whistleblowers, and even imprison journalists. The WHO previously complained that it had ‘not been invited’ by China to investigate the outbreak, and has continually been criticised for propping up Communist Party talking points. A previous WHO “scouting mission” to China over the summer saw a team of investigators arrive in China, but fail to even visit Wuhan. Dave Sharma, an Australian MP, told the Financial Times: “It is another disturbing incident of the WHO – which is charged with safeguarding global public health – putting the political sensitivities of a member state above the public health interests of the world”. In August, the WHO announced that it would not be visiting the Wuhan Institute of Virology during its investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, despite repeated calls by experts that it should be seriously looked at.The health body then did an about turn and said it would actually be visiting the lab after all, after a backlash ensued.Yet, the investigation STILL has not gotten underway, close to a year after the outbreak began.
Mexico farm lobby blasts ban on GMO corn; organic growers welcome it - (Reuters) - Mexico’s main agricultural lobby on Saturday criticized the government’s decision to ban genetically modified corn, while organic growers hailed the move that should protect smaller farmers. Mexico will “revoke and refrain from granting permits for the release of genetically modified corn seeds into the environment,” stated a decree issued Thursday evening, which also mandated the phase out of GMO corn imports by 2024. Proponents of GMO corn say the ban on domestic cultivation would limit the options of Mexican farmers, while phasing out its importation could imperil the food chain. “The lack of access to production options puts us at a disadvantage compared to our competitors, such as corn farmers in the United States,” said Laura Tamayo, spokeswoman for Mexico’s National Farm Council. “On the other hand, the import of genetically modified grain from the U.S. is essential for many products in the agrifood chain,” added Tamayo, also a regional corporate director for Bayer, whose agrochemical unit Monsanto makes weedkiller Roundup and the GMO corn designed to survive application of the pesticide.Opponents of GMO crops say they contaminate age-old native varieties of corn and encourage the use of dangerous pesticides that endanger public health and harm biodiversity. Mexico is largely self-sufficient in white corn used to make the country’s staple tortillas, but depends on imports of mostly GMO yellow corn from the United States for livestock feed.
Child Labor Linked to Palm Oil in Girl Scout Cookies, Snack Brands --Tens of thousands of children in Indonesia and Malaysia work to harvest the palm oil that ends up in several beloved Western snacks, including Girl Scout cookies. An in-depth Associated Press report published recently used U.S. customs records and the most up-to-date information from producers, traders and buyers to link palm oil harvested using child labor to major brands including Nestle, Unilever, Kellogg's, PepsiCo and Ferrero, one of two makers of Girl Scout Cookies."I thought Girl Scouts was supposed to be about making the world a better place," 14-year-old Girl Scout Olivia Chaffin told The Associated Press. "But this isn't at all making the world better." Palm oil took off as a global commodity around 20 years ago after health warnings about trans fats caused food manufacturers to switch to the extremely cheap oil. It is now in about half of all supermarket products and almost 75 percent of cosmetics, but appears on labels under more than 200 different names. Around 85 percent of the industry is fed by plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia. Rainforests are often cleared to make way for palm oil plantations in the two countries and elsewhere, and this has a devastating impact on many species, including orangutans. A recent study found that 50 percent of deforestation in Borneo between 2005 and 2015 was linked to palm oil. The UN's International Labor Organization estimates that 1.5 million children aged 10 to 17 work in Indonesia's agricultural industry, of which palm oil is the dominant crop. In Malaysia, a 2018 study found that more than 33,000 children work in the industry, and that almost half of them are between the ages of five and 11. Children working on these plantations face hazards like exposure to chemicals and pesticides, and many are denied proper healthcare and the chance at an education. In Malaysia, where the industry is mostly staffed by foreign workers, children without proper immigration papers are even more vulnerable to exploitation and abuse. "For 100 years, families have been stuck in a cycle of poverty and they know nothing else than work on a palm oil plantation," Kartika Manurung, who has published reports on labor issues on Indonesian palm oil plantations, told The Associated Press. "When I … ask the kids what they want to be when they grow up, some of the girls say, 'I want to be the wife of a palm oil worker.'"
Global Grasslands Now Contribute to Climate Warming, Study Finds -- Grasslands play a critical role in carbon sequestration. But a recent study found human activity is causing grasslands to become a source of greenhouse gas emissions. Covering approximately 25 percent of the earth's surface and containing nearly 12 percent of the land-based carbon stocks, grasslands are essential in supporting food and livestock production, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's Climate Change Resource Center.Yet, citing the expansion of pasture lands and higher livestock numbers, researchers warn current management of grasslands is accelerating climate change.Up until recently, natural and managed grasslands emitted and removed an equal amount of greenhouse gases, canceling each other out. Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) sought to learn how these fluctuations in greenhouse gases have contributed to climate change in both managed pastures and natural grasslands, between the years of 1750 and 2012, according to an article by the IIASA.Through their model, the team of researchers found that the ability for natural and sparsely grazed grasslands to absorb more carbon has intensified over the past decade. Grasslands heavily managed by humans, on the other hand, became a source of greenhouse gases, emitting similar quantities of greenhouse gases to that of croplands."Our results show that the different human activities that have affected grasslands have shifted the balance of greenhouse gas removals and emissions more towards warming in intensively exploited pastures, and more towards cooling in natural and semi-natural systems," Thomas Gasser, an author of the study said, according to the IIASA.
China suspends poultry imports from France due to bird flu (Reuters) - China has stopped poultry imports from France due to highly pathogenic H5N8 bird flu from Jan. 5 to protect the country’s animal husbandry sector, the General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday.China banned poultry imports from Ireland in December.
US scraps legal protections for migratory birds. President Donald Trump's administration has finalized a rule that will allow oil companies, wind farm owners and other industries to kill an unlimited number of migratory birds without facing any federal penalties. The new rule, published today, would re-interpret the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918... The rule is one of the last industry-friendly changes to environmental laws the Trump administration is pushing through in its last weeks in office. Oil producers feel they have been unfairly targeted under the law, since most migratory bird deaths are caused by buildings and electrical lines. Power lines kill more than 31mn birds each year, while oil pits kill 750,000 and wind turbines kill 230,000. The final rule will not go into effect for 30 days, well after president-elect Joe Biden is sworn into office on 20 January. Biden last month vowed to halt or delay "midnight regulations" that have not already taken effect. A federal judge last year already threw out the Trump administration's first attempt to re-interpret the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, after finding there was "nothing" in the text of the law to suggest the Trump administration's new interpretation was correct. That could offer grounds for activists to challenge the rule in court. The US Congress could also vote to scrap the rule, under a law named the Congressional Review Act, if there is support from a majority of members in the US Senate and the US House of Representatives..
Trump Administration, in Parting Gift to Industry, Reverses Bird Protections - The New York Times - The rule change means companies will not be punished for killing migratory birds. It came a day after a new regulation restricting the use of scientific studies in policymaking. — The Trump administration gutted protections for migratory birds on Tuesday, delivering the second of two parting gifts to the oil and gas industry, which has long sought to be shielded from liability for killing birds unintentionally in oil spills, toxic waste ponds and other environmental disasters.The move, by the Department of the Interior, came a day after the Environmental Protection Agency finalized another regulation that had long been sought by fossil fuel companies and other major polluting industries: A measure that effectively bars some scientific studies from consideration when the agency is drafting public health rules.The two regulations are among the last major environmental rollbacks expected from the Trump administration and will present an immediate challenge to the incoming Biden administration, which has pledged to suspend and reverse many of the last-minute rules known as midnight regulations. “They’re 11:59 and 59 seconds regulations.”A senior official with the Biden transition team, speaking on background Tuesday in a briefing call with reporters, called the last-minute rollbacks an “unrelenting assault” onthe environment and said rebuilding federal agencies that the Trump administration has gutted will be an enormous task. The official vowed the policies would be reversed, but when and how long that might take may depend on several factors, including when the measures go into effect.“One way or another the most pernicious of these rules will end up getting undone,” Mr. Revesz said. But he and other legal experts said reversing the measures would not be a quick or easy process.In the case of the bird rule, conservationists and oil industry executives alike have said that was precisely what the Trump administration intended. The industry has long sought to be shielded from liability for killing birds unintentionally in oil spills, toxic waste ponds and other environmental disasters.Under the measure, which changes the way the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act is implemented, the federal government will no longer fine or prosecute companies whose actions cause the death of birds, as long as killing birds was not the underlying intent of the action. That holds true for accidents like oil spills and electrocutions on power lines — and also intentional or even illegal acts, like the spraying of a banned pesticide — as long as birds are not the intended target of the poison.
Flying Foxes: Australia's Love-Hate Relationship With Fruit Bats - Earlier this year, the term "bat tornado" started appearing in the Australian and international media. It all started with a BBC report from the town of Ingham in the northeastern state of Queensland, where the population of flying fox bats had apparently "exploded" over the last two years, leaving residents fed up with their noise and smell. And Ingham residents are not the only ones. Complaints are also coming from other Australian towns that have long played host to large flying fox "camps." "It looks like a thunderstorm is coming when they fly over, thousands of these winged flying foxes arriving at dusk, just one after the other," The sound can be overwhelming. As can the stench from their urine. And flying foxes can also carry the rabies-like Australian bat lyssavirus, and Hendra virus. The Australian Department of Health insists there is negligible health risk to humans from any bat. But the idea that they are carriers of disease hasn't helped their image. Flying fox camps have been likened to railway stations, where crowds of the animals come and go each day. They may travel up to 50 kilometers (30 miles) in a single night, and 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) seasonally, depending on food availability. But climate change and deforestation are making their movements less predictable. As their habitat is lost or water sources dry up, they seek refuge in urban or suburban areas. "They're being forced into areas they would not normally be," said Tim Pearson, an ecologist and chair of the NGO Sydney Bats. And while some Australian towns may be seeing an influx of flying foxes, nationally, their numbers have dropped significantly. Extreme temperatures over recent years have wiped out thousands — sometimes even tens of thousands — of animals at a time, with media reports showing heaps of corpses where they have fallen from trees suffering extreme heat stress. Australia experienced the hottest November on record this year, with temperatures reaching the mid-40 degrees Celsius in some regions. And bats are more exposed to heat in towns and suburbs where they don't have the protection of thick forest. "This latest catastrophe to befall some of Australia's largest bat species is a symptom of a much larger problem — Australia's deforestation crisis," said Matt Brennan, head of Tasmania-based Wilderness Society. "Eastern Australia is now a designated global deforestation hotspot, alongside places like the Amazon, the Congo and Borneo."
Cocaine Production Is Destroying Colombia National Park Old-Growth Rainforest - The location of the Catatumbo region sits on the border with Venezuela, making it a strategic route for armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), to traffic drugs out of Colombia. Territorial disputes over coca-producing areas reportedly happen daily, and residents say they live in fear of displacement or even death if they speak out about illegal activities connected to the region's drug trade. Those who agreed to speak to Mongabay did so on the condition of anonymity; their names have been changed in this story. In addition to a threatening environment for local communities, the illegal cultivation of coca and its manufacture into cocaine appears to be coming at the cost of the region's forests. Even areas given the highest level of protection are not immune – including Catatumbo Barí National Natural Park, where satellites are detecting deforestation creeping deeper and deeper into the park's old-growth rainforest.Today Pablo cultivates legal crops, but until a few years ago he was a coca grower. He said he has watched as coca fields have expanded to the edges of the roads and banks of the Catatumbo River with total impunity, thus breaking with the old practice of growers cultivating coca in more remote, hidden areas."Now people burn pastures to cultivate coca that used to be destined for livestock or growing fruit … They don't respect anything, not even the river," Pablo said.Pablo says that since the arrival of coca in 1997, the region has not been the same and that the situation deteriorated further after the signing of the FARC peace agreement in 2016."There are almost no trees left and the wells in the creeks and river where I bathed when I was a child no longer exist because of the landslides," said Pablo, who has lived more than 50 years in the same region.Pablo added that, ultimately, farmers have opted for the money that comes with coca cultivation over the peace of mind of growing legal crops."The business is not bad if you cultivate enough [coca leaves], not like the scraps I had," he said, referencing the less-than 10 hectares (24 acres) of land he once owned. He claims that coca fields tend to be larger now, some hundreds of hectares in size.According to Pablo, one kilo of coca paste is selling for approximately 2.7 million pesos ($790). If the buyer is someone from the guerrilla group, they sell it for 2.58 million pesos ($755). Meanwhile, the price of one kilo of cacao – a popular legal crop in the area whose cultivation has been encouraged by the government to combat the coca industry – is just 8,000 pesos ($2.30).
Hunting and Habitat Destruction Are Driving 'Biotic Annihilation,' Study Warns - Humans are driving species to extinction 1,000 times faster than what is considered natural. Now, new research underscores the extent of the planet's impoverishment. Extinctions don't just rob the planet of species but also of functional and phylogenetic diversity, the authors of a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences argue. "They are much newer ideas than species richness, so not as much exploration has been done about patterns of decline in these two metrics, particularly globally," said Jedediah Brodie, first author of the study and conservation biologist at the University of Montana. For example, the Bornean rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis harrissoni), a subspecies of the Sumatran rhinoceros, has gone extinct in Malaysia. "It is such a tragedy because it's an iconic and culturally important species," Brodie said, "but also because they are super important both functionally and phylogenetically." About 15% of people in the world depend on wild animals, particularly vertebrates, for food. But hunting, illegal and legal, also feeds the global supply chain for wildlife and wildlife parts. Rhino populations plummeted in the second half of the 20th century; they are heavily poached for their horns, and their ranges have shrunk dramatically over the decades. Of the five existing rhino species, three are critically endangered. By removing animals from their habitats, humans also remove them from ecosystems in which they evolved and play critical roles. To gauge the consequences is not a simple calculus. "Say there are twenty species of grazing animals and only two species of seed-eating animals. If two species of the grazers go extinct, that doesn't have that much impact on the functional diversity because there are still eighteen grazers left," Brodie said. "But if the two species of seed-eating animals go extinct, it has a huge impact on functional diversity because all of a sudden you've lost this entire ecological function." In both cases, Brodie said, the species richness would decrease by two, but the effects would be very different. The research shows that extinctions driven by human activities lead to a more significant decline in functional diversity than if species were randomly going extinct.
Trump's EPA finalizes last minute limits on science used in rulemaking (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chief said on Monday he has finalized a rule to limit what scientific research the agency can use to formulate regulations, in a concession to big business weeks before President Donald Trump leaves office. Under the rule, the EPA will no longer be able to rely on scientific research that is underpinned by confidential medical and industry data. Opponents of the rule, including public health advocates and environmentalists, said it would harm human health protections by making it harder to craft air and water regulations. For decades the EPA has relied on scientific research rooted in confidential medical and industry data as a basis for its air, water and chemicals rules. While the agency publishes large amounts of research and data, the confidential material has been held back. - EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal that the agency had relied on “secret science” and the “Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science” rule would allow more public scrutiny of the science used in rulemaking. “Our rule will prioritize transparency and increase opportunities for the public to access the ‘dose-response’ data that underlie significant regulations and influential scientific information,” Wheeler said in the piece. He said dose-response data “explain the relationship between the amount of a chemical or pollutant and its effect on human health and the environment.” The rule will likely be overturned by President-elect Joe Biden who takes office on Jan. 20 and, like many Trump-era environmental rollbacks, could be challenged by environmentalists in the courts. When the measure was proposed in 2018, it was billed by then-EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt as a way to boost transparency for the benefit of the industries the agency regulates. Environmentalists denounced the rule. “If left unchallenged, this rule would essentially bar the agency from using the most relevant medical studies when creating rules about air pollution, toxic chemicals, water contaminants, and more and could force the agency to revoke decades of clean air protections,” said Chris Zarba, a former director of the EPA Science Advisory Board.
EPA’s ‘Secret Science’ Rule Will Make It Harder for the Agency to Protect Public Health - The Trump administration has worked to weaken U.S. environmental regulations in many areas, from water and air pollution to energy development and land conservation. One of its most controversial actions is known as the "secret science" rule because it would require scientists to disclose all of their raw data, including confidential medical records, for their findings to be considered in shaping regulations. This measure has just been finalized. This proposal drastically limits what kinds of scientific and medical research the Environmental Protection Agency can draw on as it makes policy. According to press reports, an EPA advisory panel with many members appointed by President Trump criticized the proposal, saying it would do little to increase transparency and could limit what kinds of research get done. As director of a center on urban health, I study issues including human exposure to toxic substances such as lead and mercury. Confidential patient information is a key resource for my work, and I believe that children's health will suffer as a direct result of this rule. My work is made possible because researchers can obtain confidential patient records, under strict regulations and oversight to ensure their confidentiality throughout analysis. These controls are mandated under federal regulations that were rightly instituted to protect people's identities and health data pursuant to the 1996 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, or HIPAA. Because I did not have the resources to obtain and analyze millions of samples of soil, dust and water for lead, I turned to medical records. Children around the country have routine blood tests, and many of them include an assay for blood lead levels. I realized that if I could obtain those records, as well as each child's age, test date and home address, I could map out the distribution of lead poisoning. This approach led me and my colleagues to two major discoveries that have improved communities and shaped policy at the local and national levels. Neither of these insights could be used to implement solutions under the proposed secret science rule.
Senate Democrats eye quick repeal of Trump rules -- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 -- The impending power shift in the Senate means Congress will once again turn to the Congressional Review Act to scrap a bevy of regulations. The law will allow the Democratic House and Senate and President-elect Joe Biden to rapidly repeal regulations finalized roughly within the past six months. Hill Republicans and President Trump used the CRA to kill 16 Obama-era rules in 2017. Democrats, in contrast, have never deployed the CRA. They're wary of the law's blunt, deregulatory nature. But yesterday's elections in Georgia, which appear to give Democrats a narrow majority in the Senate, have reignited the debate among lawmakers and advocates. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told Politico reporter Burgess Everett that using the CRA to repeal Trump rules would be among the Democrats' first orders of business. Others have held their tongue. Yesterday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said President-elect Joe Biden "is certainly looking at that." "He'll make some recommendations," Hoyer told reporters. "Our committees are looking at that, as well. They will make recommendations. I don't want to speak to that at this point in time, but certainly I think there is no doubt that that — we're looking at what [President Trump] has done ... and what actions, if any, are warranted." Experts caution that the CRA, which requires only a simple majority of both chambers, could backfire on Democrats. If they use the law to block a Trump rule, the administration could be barred from drafting a regulation that is "substantially the same." "In effect, the CRA is like a rubber mallet that can smash rules opposed by Congress, but it destroys the possibility of fixing them," said Dan Weiss, a longtime environmental consultant. The law does not define "substantially the same," nor does it say who should, and the matter has never been tested in court. Experts say Democrats may be fearful. "If they are not already doing this, Democrats need to do some soul-searching on whether or not they want to go down this road," said James Goodwin, a regulatory scholar with the Center for Progressive Reform. "It would effectively legitimize this law — there's no putting the toothpaste back in the tube."
At least 4 dead, 6 missing as intense hailstorm and flash floods hit Sucre, Bolivia - Intense rains and hail led to flash floods in Sucre, Bolivia, on Monday, January 4, 2021, leaving at least four fatalities and six others missing. The severe weather caused considerable damage to properties, buildings, and vehicles, while several stalls were swept away by floods. A short period of torrential rain and hail struck Sucre in Chuquisaca Department on Monday afternoon, resulting in flash flooding in parts of the city. Authorities reported at least four people dead and six others missing, while seven people sustained injuries. Hail caused considerable damage to vehicles and buildings, while several stalls of traders from the Mercado Campesino were swept away. Chuquisaca police reported that 14 people who showed symptoms of hypothermia were rescued and taken to medical centers. Seven of them were later discharged, while the rest remain under hospital care. Luis Arce, President of Bolivia, expressed his condolences to the bereaved families and assured people that the government will take necessary measures with authorities. "Our condolences to the families who lost their loved ones in Sucre. The Vice Ministry of Civil Defense is in charge of assessing the damage and coordinating the necessary care actions with the local authorities," the president said in a statement.
Deadly flash floods affect more than 15 000 families in Central Philippines - Torrential rains triggered flash floods in Central Philippines, leaving more than 15 000 families affected, at least three fatalities, and more than 400 homes damaged or destroyed, officials reported Sunday, January 3, 2021. Flooding incidents have been affecting parts of the region since December 31, 2020. More than 15 000 residents were forced to evacuate as heavy rains unleashed floods in Bicol and Negros, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). More than 9 000 people were affected in MIMAROPA, Bicol, and Central Luzon. In Bicol, two fatalities were reported after a boat capsized in the waters off Canaman town in Camarines Sur. Two fishermen were also reported missing in the incident. In Sorsogon, a search and rescue operation was launched after a 13-year-old boy was swept away by floods. At least 106 flood incidents were reported in three cities in the region, mostly in the Camarines Sur and Sorsogon area. Naz added that 24 landslides were reported in 15 towns. In Negros, a man lost his life as flash floods engulfed three cities since New Year's Eve. The victim, aged 26, was found dead along the shores of Victorias City. More than 15 000 families have been affected by the severe weather, according to the Philippine News Agency. About 75 houses were destroyed, while 379 others sustained damage. The incidents of flooding were caused by heavy rains since December 31. "We are expecting more reports from areas that experienced flooding due to continuous, moderate to heavy rains induced by the prevailing tail-end of a frontal system over Bicol,"
Historic low temperatures sweep North India, a month's worth of rain in a day hits Delhi - Heavy rains, snow, and persisting cold wave have been creating difficult conditions for people in northwestern India-- in Delhi, heavy rains surpassed its monthly average for January of 21.7 mm (0.8 inches) when Safdarjung observatory recorded more than 25.1 mm (0.9 inches) into Sunday, January 3, 2021. The city also recorded its lowest temperature in 15 years when the mercury dropped to 1.1 °C (34 °F) on January 1, while Hisar had its coldest in 47 years with a minimum temperature of -1.2 °C (29.8 °F) on December 31, 2020. Extreme weather conditions in northwest India have left many people struggling to survive, especially with some night shelters functioning without electricity. On Safradjung Road, around 20 families have been living in a shelter, waiting for treatment for various diseases. "From the beginning of the winter season, we have been facing electricity problems. We are using solar lights to avoid this problem," Shelter in charge Vedpal told ANI. "It is even more difficult in rainy seasons like yesterday. For now, people are charging their phones outside the night shelter." Hisar in Haryana recorded -1.2 °C (29.8 °F) on December 31, which was the city's coldest December day since 1973, when the mercury hit -1.5 °C (29.3 °F). Dense fog and piercing cold gripped Delhi on New Year's Day when the city recorded 1.1 °C (34 °F), the lowest since January 8, 2006, when the area recorded a minimum of 0.2 °C (32.4 °F). Heavy rains then lashed the capital, resulting in waterlogging in some parts of the city. By the end of the day, Delhi had exceeded its monthly rainfall average for January of 21.7 mm (9.8 inches).
Beijing records coldest morning since 1966, China -The mercury pummeled to -19.6 °C (-3.3 °F) in China's capital Beijing on Thursday morning, January 7, 2021, marking the city's coldest morning since 1966, when the mercury dipped to -27.4 °C (-17.3 °F). Early Thursday morning, half of Beijing's 20 national-level meteorological stations recorded their lowest-ever January temperatures, according to Lei Lei, the chief forecaster of the Beijing municipal meteorological station. Temperatures of -19.6 °C (-3.3 °F) smashed the previous cold weather record set in 1969 and also marked the lowest since 1966 when the mercury fell to -27.4 °C (-17.3 °F). The cold weather conditions occurred when the atmosphere over the city was extremely dry-- there was no snow and little ice.While Beijing commonly faces dry winters due to sharp currents from the northeast, climate change campaigners warn that the number of extreme weather events may become more deadly.The city has been gripped by a cold wave since Wednesday, January 6, which has brought drastic temperature drops and powerful winds.
Historic snow engulfs capital Madrid just 2 days after Spain registered its coldest temperature on record -A powerful winter storm named Filomena by the Spanish Meteorological Agency -- AEMET -- is affecting the Iberian Peninsula, bringing record cold temperatures, heavy rain, and historic snow. Capital Madrid was one of several Spanish regions on red alert, a historic occurrence, due to heavy snow. The storm is expected to weaken and move northeast by Sunday, January 10, 2021. Snow and ice started accumulating on Thursday and Friday, January 7 and 8, seriously affecting travel conditions across portions of the peninsula.Late Friday afternoon, the Directorate General of Traffic in Spain reported 360 roads have been impacted by the storm, dozens of secondary roads were also closed while other roadways now require chains on tires or prohibit truck traffic. For capital Madrid, Filomena is the worst storm in 80 years. Residents who ignored official warnings were caught by surprise as they have not seen snow there for at least 10 years. Winters in Madrid are normally dry and quite mild and the last time it snowed like this in Madrid was back in March 1971. Many streets across the capital are impassable because the plows practically do not exist there.Madrid Barajas International Airport had all incoming and outgoing flights suspended on Friday, leaving hundreds of passengers waiting for the weather to clear up.Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas with huge waves forced the evacuation of 65 people from a ferry that ran aground while trying to approach a dock in the Gran Canaria island.Madrid’s airport remained closed on January 9 and the Community of Madrid remains on red alert due to the extreme risk of snowfall and the danger it poses. Hundreds of stranded lorry drivers who had to pull up overnight as conditions worsened are still stranded on the roads. Madrid Police officials said a number of trucks have been abandoned, with their drivers taken to hospitals suffering the early onset of hypothermia. On Wednesday, January 6, Spain registered its coldest temperature on record when the mercury in Catalan Pyrenees station dropped to -34.1 °C (-29.4 °F), breaking the previous record set on February 2, 1956.
Heavy snow engulfs Jammu and Kashmir, cuts it off from the rest of the country, India - Heavy snow closed the Jammu-Srinagar national highway and Mughal Road on January 2, 2021, stranding nearly 4 500 vehicles. Though the road was cleared of landslides, snow on the north portal of Jawahar Tunnel in Lower Munda hampered the movement of traffic. Meanwhile, flight operations at Srinagar airport are suspended for the third consecutive day, leaving Kashmir cut off from the rest of the country.The Jammu-Srinagar National Highway was closed due to the heavy snow accumulation -- up to 1 m (3 feet) -- at many places, particularly around Jawahar Tunel, an official of the traffic control department said. Nearly 4 500 vehicles, mostly trucks carrying essentials to the valley, were stranded along the 270 km (168 miles) road. Around 2 500 vehicles were stranded between Udhampur and Ramban since Saturday evening, January 2, as well as 170 Srinagar-bound motor vehicles (LMV), 150 heavy vehicles besides 20 Jammu-bound LMVs. About 80 Srinagar-bound LMVS were trapped in Ramban and 50 HMVs in Chanderkot, while 190 Srinagar-bound tankers were stranded in Batote. Though the road was cleared of landslides at Magerkot, Battery Chashma, Mom Passi, Marog, and Panthial in Ramban district, heavy snow on the north portal hampered the movement of traffic.Hundreds of trucks from the avalanche-prone areas in Lower Munda were cleared and allowed to pass through the Jawahar Tunnel.Flight operations to and from Srinagar remained suspended for the third consecutive day on Tuesday due to poor visibility and heavy fresh snowfall, officials said.Operations will resume only after the weather improves, they added."The runway has been cleared of snow but continuous heavy snowfall has led to flight operations being suspended due to poor visibility," an official of the Airport Authority of India told PTI. The Meteorological office here has said moderate to heavy snowfall, with isolated very heavy snowfall, was most likely to take place until Wednesday morning.
Powerful winter storms bring severe winds and snow to Alaska, Pacific Northwest and Canada - A powerful winter storm is set to blast Southeast Alaska with hurricane-force winds on Wednesday, January 6, 2021. New storms are expected to form in the days ahead, bringing severe winds, snow, and major waves to the region. An ongoing La Niña is resulting in above-average cyclone activity over the North Pacific-- much of the storms are gaining strength rapidly, moving towards the Aleutian Islands, Alaska mainland, or the Pacific Northwest. On Tuesday, January 5, an impressive and deep extratropical storm has formed over the far North Pacific, just days after the most intense North Pacific storm on record hit the Aleutian Islands, which had a record low pressure of 921 hPa, Severe Weather Europe's Marko Korosec said. The extratropical storm's large size and intensity have already peaked over the Gulf of Alaska, but its large size and strength remain powerful enough that its impact is significant for Southeast Alaska, as well as along the Pacific coast of Northwest U.S. and Canada. The whole storm size is quite massive, so the wind field and high swell with significant waves are being produced. The highest waves are expected to reach up to 11 m (35 feet). Further southwest of the system, a new rapidly intensifying extratropical storm is developing and is forecast to spread towards Southeast Alaska in the following days. This new system will bring another bout of excessive downpour and deep snow. The secondary low's main threat is the powerful winds within the strong pressure gradient over the region, supporting additional dangerous winds that will eventually vanish through Wednesday morning. At the same time, the low southwest will undergo a rapid strengthening-- the wind field is set to become violent, potentially supporting the formation of a sting jet wind maximum with gusts of more than 161 km/h (100 mph). The large low over the Gulf of Alaska will continue weakening into Wednesday night, but the new low will deepen and will be coming near Southeast Alaska. Winds will remain severe on Thursday, January 7, while the storm comes closer to the region. The highest winds are expected to reach above 105 km/h (65 mph) along the coast while waves will reach 14 m (45 feet), also spreading to the region into Friday, January 8.
EF-1 tornado strikes Texas City, displacing hundreds of families -- Hundreds of families have been displaced after an EF-1 tornado swept through Texas City at 18:13 CST on January 6, 2021 (00:13 UTC, January 7). Residents described the storm as 'quick and horrifying.' The National Weather Service (NWS) Houston placed the tornado on the higher end of EF-1 rating with maximum sustained wind speeds likely around 175 km/h (110 mph). This is still preliminary data and subject to change pending final review. The tornado was on the ground for about 1 minute, it had a path of 1.1 km (0.7 miles) and a maximum path width of 45 m (50 yards). "The most significant damage was to a convenience store near that intersection and the adjacent Tradewinds Apartments complex," NWS meteorologist Dan Reilly noted. A clear relatively narrow path was seen in the severe damage. Although most debris was pushed toward the east dirt and insulation was found splattered on all sides of many structures including the east downwind side. Damage at a business on 6th street north was also surveyed.
Cyclone Imogen makes landfall on North Queensland coast - Tropical Cyclone Imogen has made landfall in North Queensland, causing damage to buildings, flooding roads and uprooting trees.The Category 1 system crossed the Gulf of Carpentaria coast just to the north of Karumba overnight, but it has now weakened to a tropical low.The Bureau of Meteorology says the system remains "dangerous" and is warning residents in its path of destructive winds and heavy rain that is likely to lead to flash flooding.Around 262 millimetres of rain fell at Normanton since 9am yesterday, with falls of 192 millimetres at Mornington Island and 74 millimetres at Kowanyama.Wind gusts of up to 95 kilometres an hour were also detected as it crossed the coast.The State Emergency Service (SES) received 51 requests for assistance in the northern region since midday on Sunday.More than 90 roads across Queensland are closed, with drivers being warned to avoid flooded crossings.Hundreds of properties also remain without power after electricity was cut overnight. The cyclone is set to weaken as it moves further eastward towards Cairns and Cardwell, but residents in its path are being warned to prepare for more heavy rain in the days ahead.
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event started over the weekend - A Sudden Stratospheric Warming event started over the weekend in association with a significant weakening or reversal of westerly winds circulating around the North Pole -- between 10 and 50 km (6 - 31 miles) above the ground -- the stratospheric polar vortex. "As predicted, atmospheric observations are now showing that the Arctic stratosphere is undergoing a sudden warming event associated with a weakening stratospheric polar vortex,"said Adam Scaife, head of the long-range prediction at the UK Met Office. "The first and main round of sudden stratospheric warming sent the stratospheric polar vortex into the ropes but may not be a knockout blow," said Marco Petagna, Media Advisor & Senior Operational Meteorologist with UK Met Office. "A second less significant warming is still signaled by models which may deplete the vortex further." During SSW events, the vortex can break down completely, and when this happens the disruption in the stratosphere can trigger a shift from westerly to easterly winds which can be followed by lower-altitude winds shifting in the same direction. On average, 70% of occasions see this switch to easterly conditions at ground level, with the resulting cold and easterly shift in our weather."Although the prolonged cold spell and snow events in February and March of 2018 – dubbed the ‘Beast from the East’ by the UK media – were linked to a SSW event, the record warm spell that occurred in February 2019 also followed such an event," said Matthew Lehnert, an Expert Operational Meteorologist with the Met Office. For Northern America, the first push of Arctic air seems likely to begin later during the second week to early in the third week of January (11th to 15th) from part of western Canada and the U.S. Rockies," AccuWeather's Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "After the first surge of Arctic air, there are likely to be additional waves of cold air that spread from the Central states to the Eastern states during the latter part of January and into early February," Pastelok explained. How severe the cold will get or where the worst of the cold ends up is likely to be dependent on the amount of snow on the ground, As the waves of Arctic air get rolling during the second half of the month, and with the Great Lakes largely free of ice, significant rounds of lake-effect snow are expected to unfold in the snow belts with the risk of snow squalls extending well away from the Great Lakes.
Polar Vortex Splitting - May Lead to Weeks of Wild Weather - A dramatic spike in temperatures is occurring at high altitudes above the North Pole, where the air is thin and typically frigid. Known as a sudden stratospheric warming event, experts say it’s likely to have potentially significant repercussions for winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere for weeks to possibly months. This unusually strong event may have profound influences on the weather in the United States and Europe, possibly increasing the potential for paralyzing snowstorms and punishing blasts of Arctic air, with the odds of the most severe cold outbreaks highest in Northern Europe. The United States is slightly more of a winter wild card for now, experts say, with individual winter storms tough to predict beyond a few days in advance. While occurring about 18 miles high in the sky and disconnected from the weather on the ground, stratospheric warming events can affect the polar vortex, which is a circulation of air around low pressure that acts as a repository for some of the coldest air on the planet. If the polar vortex is strong and stable, as it was last winter, that cold air will stay bottled up over the Arctic, and snow chances may be few and far between for regions such as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. But when the polar vortex weakens and wobbles off the pole, pieces of it can split off and swirl southward, affecting the United States, Europe and Asia. And that’s exactly what’s begun to happen, due in large part to this stratospheric temperature spike. Stratospheric warming events are a known, but not guaranteed, trigger for knocking the polar vortex off balance, like flicking a spinning top, forcing it to spin more slowly and erratically. They are triggered by an upward flow of energy in the form of “large-scale atmospheric waves” from the lower atmosphere, Now, the stratosphere stands poised to transfer energy via downward-moving atmospheric waves into the lower atmosphere, where it can help determine which areas get buried in blizzards while others see unusually mild conditions.Normally, winds in the stratosphere circulate from west to east around the North Pole, around an area of low pressure. But the rapid warming — on the order of 30 degrees Celsius in the past two weeks — taking place in the frigid, darkened Arctic is causing that low-pressure area to break down and the winds to slacken, Butler says. The winds are even poised to reverse, which can increase the chances of stratospheric weather affecting conditions in the lower atmosphere. The polar vortex is synonymous with extreme cold and snow. Pieces of the vortex broke off and swirled southward during the infamous winter of 2013-14, when Chicago turned into “Chiberia” and heavy snow fell from Washington to Boston. Similar events occurred during the winter of 2009-10, which was D.C.’s snowiest on record.
St. Vincent residents advised to evacuate after La Soufriere volcano spews ash (Reuters) - Residents of the eastern Caribbean island chain of St. Vincent and the Grenadines were advised to evacuate their homes on Thursday after a volcano, dormant for decades, came back to life and began spewing ash. The government raised the alert level to orange for the volcano La Soufriere, indicating that it could erupt within 24 hours, and recommended people who live nearby should leave their homes immediately. Steam, gas and a volcanic dome, formed by lava that reaches the Earth’s surface, were seen over La Soufriere, located in the northern area of St. Vincent island, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency said. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which has a population of just over 100,000, has not seen volcanic activity since 1979. An eruption by La Soufriere in 1902 killed more than 1,000 people. Authorities on the Caribbean island of Martinique, an overseas territory of France, are also closely watching the Mount Pelee volcano there after tremors became more frequent last month, prompting concern among residents. Mount Pelee has recorded an increase in seismic activity since April 2019, the first activity since the end of an eruption that lasted from 1929 to 1932. Authorities on the island have said a new volcanic eruption could be dangerous. The simultaneous uptick in activity of La Soufriere and Mount Pelee is not linked, scientists said.
Abundant dark and dense ash emission at Etna volcano, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Italy - Volcanic activity at Etna volcano in Italy gradually intensified at around 08:00 UTC on January 4, 2021, forcing authorities to raise the Aviation Color Code to Red.
- The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 08:42 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 11:26 when activity decreased.
- The activity was observed by visible and thermal surveillance cameras.
INGV-OE (Etna Observatory) reports that starting at 05:45 UTC on January 4, 2020, the video surveillance network highlighted a weak and sporadic ash emission from the Voragine and Southeast Craters. The emissions quickly dispersed to the east. Starting at 08:18 UTC today, a gradual intensification of Strombolian explosive activity has been observed at the eastern mouth of the SE Crater with abundant dark and dense ash emission, drifting eastward. Volcanic tremor amplitude fluctuated over the past several hours, with the source in the area of SE crater between 2.8 and 3 km (1.7 - 1.8 miles) above sea level. Infrasonic activity in the last few hours (to 09:25 UTC) has shown no significant changes. However, two increases in the number of events located at the SE, yesterday afternoon and during the night have been observed. The localized infrasonic activity at the NE crater remains unchanged. There have been no significant changes observed in deformation signals recorded by permanent GPS and clinometric networks. Pictures below show ash emission seen from the town of Tremestieri Etneus on the southern side of the volcano, around 08:30 UTC on January 4, 2021.
Eruption continues at Kilauea with lava erupting from vents on the NW side of the crater, Hawaii - Lava activity at Hawai'ian Kilauea volcano is confined to Halemaʻumaʻu with lava erupting from vents on the northwest side of the crater, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) reported at 19:11 UTC on January 5, 2021. Early January 5 (UTC), the lava lake was 191 m (627 feet) deep and perched above its edge. SO2 emission rates were still elevated.Sulfur dioxide emission rate measurements made on January 3 were still in the range 3 000 - 6 500 t/d since December 27--the same range of values that were common for emissions from the pre-2018 lava lake, HVO said.Summit tiltmeters recorded weak deflationary tilt since January 1, 2021. Seismicity remained elevated but stable, with steadily elevated tremor and a few minor earthquakes.Geodetic monitors indicate that the upper portion of the East Rift Zone (between the summit and Puʻu ʻŌʻō) contracted while the summit deflated at the onset of this eruption (December 21, 2020). There is no seismic or deformation data to indicate that additional magma is currently moving into either of Kīlauea’s rift zones.The west vents spattered from the top of a small cone plastered on the northwest wall of Halemaʻumaʻu crater.On the morning of January 5 (HST), lava is flowing down a narrow channel to the lake and feeding a small dome fountain in front of the west vents probably from a submerged portion of the vent. The lava lake was 191 m (623 feet) deep Monday afternoon (HST) and had a volume of about 26 million cubic meters (34 million cubic yards). The most recent thermal map -- December 30, 2020 -- provided the lake dimensions as 800 by 530 m (875 by 580 yards) for a total area of 33 ha (82 acres). High levels of volcanic gas, rockfalls, explosions, and volcanic glass particles are the primary hazards of concern regarding this new activity at Kīlauea’s summit. Large amounts of volcanic gas—primarily water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)—are continuously released during eruptions of Kīlauea Volcano. As SO2 is released from the summit during this new eruption, it will react in the atmosphere with oxygen, sunlight, moisture, and other gases and particles, and within hours to days, convert to fine particles. The particles scatter sunlight and cause the visible haze that has been observed downwind of Kīlauea, known as vog (volcanic smog), during previous summit eruptions. Vog creates the potential for airborne health hazards to residents and visitors, damages agricultural crops and other plants, and affects livestock operations. Rockfalls and minor explosions, such as the ones that occurred during the 2008-18 lava lake eruption at Kīlauea summit, may occur suddenly and without warning.
More than 500 evacuated after new eruption at Merapi volcano, Indonesia - More than 500 people living on the fertile slopes of Merapi volcano in Indonesia were forced to evacuate on January 7, 2021, after a brief eruption at 01:02 UTC produced a pyroclastic flow with ash rising up to 3 km (10 000 feet) above sea level. The pyroclastic flow was only partially visible due to fog over the mountain, authorities said. The flow spread less than 1 km (0.62 miles) from the crater. Small-scale eruptions continued through the rest of the day, with ash rising 200 m (650 feet) above the crater. The Alert Level remains at 3, and the public is urged to stay 5 km (3.1 miles) away from the summit. Merapi's alert level was raised from 2 to 3 (on a scale of 1 - 4) on November 5, 2020, after a significant increase in seismicity. The volcano-tectonic activity has remained elevated since the powerful eruption on June 21, when the volcano ejected ash up to 6 000 m (20 000 feet) above sea level.
Earth Is Spinning Faster Than Ever --It's a common truism that there are only 24 hours in a day, but, according to precise measurements, that isn't exactly true.The Earth typically takes 86,400 seconds, or 24 hours, to spin on its axis, TimeandDate.com explained. But the invention of precise atomic clocks in the 1960s showed that the length of the Earth's daily rotation could actually vary by a matter of milliseconds. Until recently, the Earth's rotation was slightly longer than 24 hours. But in 2020, the Earth started speeding up."It is certainly correct that the Earth is spinning faster now than at any time in the last 50 years," Peter Whibberley, National Physical Laboratory time and frequency group senior research scientist, told The Telegraph on Monday.Before 2020, the record for the shortest day was set on July 5, 2005, which clocked in at 1.0516 milliseconds less than 86,400 seconds, The Weather Channel reported. In 2020, that record was broken a total of 28 times. The fastest day since record keeping began happened on July 19, 2019, and clocked in 1.4602 milliseconds shorter than average. Scientists predict that days in 2021 will be even faster. They estimate that days are now 0.05 milliseconds shorter on average, which will leave 2021 running 19 milliseconds behind. But why does a difference of milliseconds matter? At stake is the syncing of solar time with Earth's atomic clocks, because satellites and other communication devices are usually based on the position of the sun and stars.
Fireball as bright as the full Moon spotted over southern Spain - (video) A fireball as bright as the full Moon was recorded streaking through the night sky over southern Span at 04:08 UTC on January 2, 2021.This bolide was generated by a rock from a comet that hit the atmosphere at about 230 000 km/h.The fireball began at an altitude of about 113 km (70 miles) over Andalusia and ended at a height of around 58 km (36 miles).This bright meteor was recorded in the framework of the SMART project, operated by the Southwestern Europe Meteor Network (SWEMN) from the meteor-observing stations located at Sevilla, La Sagra (Granada), and La Hita (Toledo). The event has been analyzed by the principal investigator of the SMART project, Dr. Jose M. Madiedo, from the Institute of Astrophysics of Andalusia (IAA-CSIC).
Research: Existing emissions will warm the Earth by more than 2 degrees celsius --Greenhouse gas emissions that have already been released will warm the Earth to a level beyond goals that have been set in international agreements, according to a new paper. New calculations published in the journal Nature Climate Changeestimate that warming based on emissions that have already happened, called “committed warming,” will cause the planet to heat up by between 2.3 degrees celsius and 2.8 degrees celsius when compared to pre-industrial levels. In the Paris climate accords, countries agreed to the goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees celsius and said it would be better to limit it to 1.5 degrees celsius. The new paper argues that some previous estimates of how much warming the Earth is committed to are undercounting. The papers’ authors argue that those estimates don’t adequately consider changes that will occur in the interim as a factor in their calculations. However, in a video explaining the paper’s findings, co-author Andrew Dessler said that its findings are not “game over for the climate.” “This committed warming is a very slow process because it requires warming regions of the planet that are very slow to warm, thus, it may take centuries for the bulk of this committed warming to occur,” the Texas A&M University professor said. He warned, however, “If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the rate we currently are, then we will blow through the 1.5 and 2 degree celsius limits, possibly within a few decades.”
More Than Two Degrees of Climate Warming Is Already Locked In, New Study Finds - Existing greenhouse gases will eventually push the climate into more than two degrees of warming, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday. That number puts the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels out of reach, says Andrew Dessler, study coauthor and Texas A&M University climate scientist. Still, he warned against "climate doomers," The Associated Press reported."While I would not categorize this as good news, it is not game over for the climate," Dessler said in a videoexplaining the paper. So what exactly does the study say?Dessler worked with colleagues at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) and Nanjing University in China to analyze what is called "committed warming," or the amount of warming that would occur if atmospheric greenhouse gases were paused at their current concentrations.Previous estimates had put committed warming at around 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, Dessler said in the video. But those estimates were based on faulty assumptions about Earth's climate system, the paper authors argued."Typically, committed warming is estimated assuming that changes in the future will pretty much follow changes in the past," Mark Zelinka, coauthor and LLNL atmospheric scientist, said in a press release. "But we now know that this is a bad assumption." Specifically, the researchers pointed to the regions of the planet that have not yet warmed, such as the Southern Ocean. The temperatures of these regions cause clouds to form that reflect sunlight and further cool the planet. But eventually those regions will warm too, dispersing the clouds and further raising temperatures. "After accounting for this effect, the estimated future warming based on the historical record would be much higher than previous estimates," lead author Chen Zhou of Nanjing University said in the press release.The researchers estimated that a likely total of 2.3 degrees Celsius of warming is now locked in, about a full degree above the previous estimate. The good news is that this warming could take centuries to occur, provided the world acts now to reduce emissions. "If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the rate we currently are, then we will blow through the 1.5 and two degree Celsius limits possibly within a few decades,"
You Don’t Want to Imagine an Ocean Without Coral Reefs—But You Might Have To - With a recent report titled “Projections of Future Coral Bleaching Conditions,” published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in November, Leticia Carvalho—head of the Marine and Freshwater Branch of UNEP—said on December 21 that coral reefs are the “canary in the coalmine for climate’s impact on oceans.” The image of the canary in the coal mine is used over and over again to refer to many aspects of the climate catastrophe: reflecting on his studies of glacier decline in Greenland, glaciologist Ian Howat said that “Greenland is going to be the canary in the coal mine,” while an evolutionary biologist in Australia, Dr. Janet Gardner, saidthat “Birds really are the ‘canaries in the coal mine’” because their changes in body weight reflect sensitive assessments of changing weather patterns. Each of these scientists, looking at the specific thing they study—glaciers, bird weight, coral reefs—is right about their particular insight as well as about the fact that what they are seeing is deeply worrying.What is also concerning is a consensus among these scientists that rising temperatures are creating rapid and negative changes in the ecosystems. The evidence in the report on coral reefs is shocking. “Coral reefs will soon disappear,” said Carvalho, if the current levels of inaction persist. The UNEP report is written by highly qualified scientists who make closely argued points and do not offer loose statements. So, it is pretty chilling to confront—early in the report—the suggestion that corals will be wiped out by the 2040s.The report notes that there has been a long coral bleaching event that started in 2014 and ended in 2017; this was the longest coral bleaching event on record that “spread across the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans.” To put it simply, coral bleaching is when rising sea temperatures lead to an overheating of the coral reefs; when the reefs overheat, they expel the zooxanthellae (algal symbionts), which results in the coral bleaching. Bleaching can be reversed when sea temperatures cool. What happened between 2014 and 2017 was that the sea temperatures did not drop enough for the corals to recover at the end of the summer of 2014, and in the years that followed.The average temperature in oceans has increased by 0.1 degrees Celsius (32.18 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade in the past century as a result of—among other factors—increased use of fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels has led to an increase in atmospheric warming, which, combined with phenomena such as the 1997-98 and 2010 El Niño events, has resulted in catastrophic coral reef degradation. But these earlier episodes do not compare to the impact of the long period of coral reef bleaching from 2014 to 2017; for example, the 1997-98 period saw the death of 16 percent of the world’s coral reefs, while the 2014-2017 warming saw 80 percent of the Great Barrier Reef suffer from severe bleaching.
Carbon Capture Is Not a Climate Savior -In December, the Vatican became one of the latest entities to unveil a plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, joining far less pious actors like BP, Shell, and President-elect Joe Biden. Net-zero plans have become all the rage as public concern about the climate crisis has grown. But approving coverage of these wide-ranging announcements rarely question what the “net” of net-zero actually means. The way they get to “zero” isn’t by cutting all greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century but by sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere afterward through a suite of methods known collectively as “negative emissions.” And there’s a problem with that: Existing “carbon capture” technologies and techniques can today capture only 0.1 percent of global emissions. Banking on them to pick up the slack amounts to a big gamble. It’s not clear these techniques are scalable or that the countries and companies behind net-zero pledges have thought through what trying to scale them would mean. Talking up carbon capture is good for fossil fuel companies—it makes the next few decades look profitable for them. Companies from ExxonMobil to Shell to Occidental Petroleum have all boasted about investments in carbon capture while continuing to double down on their core business model of finding and digging up as much oil and gas as possible. Whether they’re making meaningful investments in carbon capture is a different matter entirely. Exxon recently nixed its $1 billion investment to store carbon under a gas operation it owns in Wyoming. It moved ahead with a $9 billion expansion of its crude oil drilling operations off the coast of Guyana. All the while, Exxon, like itscompetitors, continues to advertise its token investments in carbon capture as proof that they’ve enlisted in good faith in the climate fight, despite all evidence to the contrary. The approach is eerily reminiscent of the climate denial playbook. When companies like Exxon and General Motors funded climate denial, the effect wasn’t to convince the world that more carbon dioxide is a good thing or that the earth just naturally gets really hot sometimes, but it was to muddy the waters, casting enough doubt on the scientific consensus to stymie policymaking that might threaten their profits. Now, such companies’ lavish advertising budgets are being used to spread a new kind of doubt in the face of a new consensus about how to deal with that problem: Phase out fossil fuel use as quickly as possible while phasing in renewables. Negative emissions are one among several vague talking points being thrown out by polluters to suggest that isn’t necessary. What if we could suck up a whole lot of carbon dioxide at some point? The jury’s still out on how much carbon dioxide we can take out of the atmosphere after 2050, they argue. And renewables can’t yet meet the world’s energy needs. So it’s probably safest to let us keep making the earth hotter while our best researchers work to find a technological fix to this problem that’s just around the corner.
Geoengineers inch closer to Sun-dimming balloon test - For years, the controversial idea of solar geoengineering—lofting long-lived reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and diminish global warming—has been theoretical. It’s starting to get real: Today, after much technical and regulatory wrangling, Harvard University scientists are proposing a June 2021 test flight of a research balloon designed to drop small amounts of chalky dust and observe its effects. This first flight would not inject the particles; it would only be a dry run of the steerable balloon and instruments needed to study chemical reactions in the stratosphere, the calm, cold layer more than 10 kilometers up. Even so, the project, called the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx), must first win the approval of an independent advisory board, a decision that could come in February 2021.The need to study the real-world effects of releasing reflective particles is pressing, says David Keith, a Harvard energy and climate scientist and one of SCoPEx’s lead scientists. Solar geoengineering is no substitute for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, he says, but it could ameliorate the worst damage of global warming, such as the extreme heat waves and storms that claim many lives today. “There is a real potential, maybe a significant potential, to reduce the risks of climate change this century—by a lot.” Ideas for geoengineering come in many flavors. There are the so-called negative emissions technologies—sucking carbon dioxide out of the air using rocks or trees or machines—that would reduce Earth’s ability to trap heat. Solar geoengineering would reduce the heat Earth receives in the first place. One idea, based on the tracks of ocean ships, is to seed reflective clouds; another is inspired by volcanoes, which can spew sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere and appreciably cool the planet.
The Trump administration misses an opportunity to protect the air -On Dec. 23 the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) administratorfinalized a rule that retains 5-year-old ozone standards for air quality. This decision contrasts with the growing body of evidence that the ozone is more dangerous than previously recognized and concerns that thecurrent standards fail to provide an adequate margin of safety for human health. Unlike the ozone in the stratosphere that protects human health, ground-level ozone is an air pollutant that damages respiratory, cardiovascular and central nervous systems, impairs reproduction and development, and worsens conditions like Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), bronchitis, emphysema and asthma. Ozone also harms the plants, insects and soil microbes that keep our environments productive and healthy. The 2020 State of the Air report shows that four of every 10 Americans are exposed to unhealthy levels of ozone, approximately 3 million more people than in last year’s report. Over 137 million people live in counties that earned an “F” for ozone, and exposure is rising in rural areas too. Research shows that the number of high ozone days in urban areas and national parks are now comparable, especially in summer and fall. Air pollution is an environmental justice issue. Not only are people of color and/or with low incomes disproportionately exposed to unhealthy levels of ozone pollution, but they already suffer many of the comorbidities that increase the health risks posed by elevated ozone. In fact, people of color comprise half of those living within counties graded as “F” for ozone, with some failing counties exceeding 85 percent.People exposed to air pollution are more vulnerable to and face increased risk of mortality from COVID-19. Weak air quality standards threaten to increase COVID-19 deaths and exacerbate health disparities. For this reason, Ann Weeks, legal director at the Clean Air Task Force, considered the act of finalizing this rule during a respiratory pandemic to be “morally unconscionable”.The U.S. economy doesn’t need to bear the high cost of air pollution from health care costs, lost productivity and reduced economic growth, which collectively total $1 trillion annually. Spending to reduce pollution saves money in the long run. The Clean Air Act, in particular, cost $65 billion to implement but saved $2 trillion — a 30-fold savings – in avoided costs.
U.S. EPA finalizing first-ever airplane emissions rules -- The EPA said its new requirements for airplanes used in commercial aviation and for large business jets would align the United States with international standards. In 2016, the U.N. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed on global airplane emissions standards aimed at makers of small and large planes, including Airbus SE and Boeing Co, which both have backed the standards. The final rule “is vital for protecting the environment and supporting the sustainable growth of commercial aviation and the United States economy,” Boeing said on Monday in a statement. Critics say the agency should have required tougher emissions rules. Environmental Defense Fund international counsel Annie Petsonk said in a statement the EPA’s “do-nothing rule is totally inadequate in light of the climate crisis. It’s incumbent on the incoming Biden-Harris administration to move swiftly to tighten this standard.” The EPA said in July the proposed requirements would apply to new-type designs as of January 2020 and to in-production airplanes or those with amended type certificates starting in 2028. The EPA said Monday it anticipates nearly all affected airplanes to be compliant by the effective dates. The EPA said it expects “airplanes that are non-compliant will either be modified and re-certificated as compliant, will likely go out of production before the production compliance date of January 1, 2028, or will seek exemptions.” As a result “EPA is not projecting emission reductions associated with these GHG (greenhouse gas) regulations.”
Exxon Discloses Full Scope of Fuel Emissions for First Time – Bloomberg - Exxon Mobil Corp. disclosed emissions data on customers’ use of its fuels and other products for the first time after coming under pressure from investors. The oil giant’s so-called Scope 3 emissions from petroleum-product sales were equivalent to 730 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2019, according to the company’s Energy and Carbon Summary released Tuesday. That’s about the same as the entire country of Canada and is the highest of all major Western oil companies.Most Western supermajors already publish the information and Exxon is doing so because “stakeholders have expressed growing interest” in it, the company said in the report. However, the data “do not provide meaningful insight into the company’s emission-reduction performance and could be misleading in some respects.” Exxon prefers to focus on Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which are within its direct control, rather than the use of its products, which depends on demand from customers. However, rivals such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc are targeting emissions cuts that cover Scope 3 figures. Exxon has come under pressure from activist investors in recent weeks for its poor shareholder returns and environmental record. Last month, Bloomberg News reported that major investors such as AllianceBernstein, Wellington Management and California State Teachers’ Retirement System have called on Exxon and the industry to increase transparency and publish more forward-looking emissions data, like the kind it routinely uses internally. The company said in December that it would set new, more ambitious targets to reduce emissions per barrel of crude. But it didn’t make any pledges related to reducing its absolute level of pollution. In October, Bloomberg News reported that internal documents showed the company’s 2018 plan to boost oil and gas production was projected to cause a surge in greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to the entire output of Greece. But the plan was derailed by Covid-19, forcing Exxon to cut capital spending and scale back its growth ambitions.
Analysis: Thin Democratic control of Senate offers Biden chance for steps on climate (Reuters) - Democratic control of the Senate offers President-elect Joe Biden an opportunity to advance parts of his climate agenda, but the paper-thin majority likely puts sweeping global warming legislation beyond reach. The election of Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the Georgia run-off on Tuesday put the Senate at an even 50-50, giving Vice President-elect Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote and removing control of the chamber from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his fellow Republicans. That virtually guarantees that Biden’s nominees for departments dealing with climate policy will breeze through Senate confirmation on simple majority votes. The nominees, including Michael Regan for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are intent on making climate change regulation one of the pillars of the administration soon after Biden takes office on Jan. 20. It also means Democrats could push moderate proposals that many lawmakers in both parties support, like reducing carbon emissions from transportation, advanced nuclear energy technology, and domestic production of critical minerals used in batteries and renewable energy. But Biden’s vision for a $2 trillion climate plan, including broad limits on greenhouse gas emissions or federal mandates for clean energy, may be harder to achieve through legislation in a divided Senate still gripped by rancor over the Nov. 3 election. Most bills require 60 votes in the 100-seat chamber to pass. And a handful of moderate or pro-fossil fuel Democrats - including Senator Joe Manchin of coal state West Virginia - could hamper any efforts to shoehorn sweeping climate measures into budget reconciliation bills that require a simple majority, according to legislative experts. “You’re not going to reach agreement on issues like a price on carbon anytime soon,” said George David Banks, who advised Trump and former President George W. Bush on climate. “But we’re still in a position to actually make a lot of progress on other big climate issues.” “A thin blue Senate could make it easier to pass a bigger green stimulus package, but carbon taxation and climate legislation still look to be out of bounds,” said Kevin Book, analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. That means U.S. oil and gas majors are unlikely to come under the same kind of pressure as their European rivals, where political forces are more aligned behind aggressive action on climate change.
Power shift in Senate could bring major changes in U.S. science and climate policy | Science - Democrats are on the cusp of retaking the U.S. Senate after runoff elections in Georgia, an outcome with potentially momentous implications for science and climate policy. Democratic control would likely make it easier for President-elect Joe Biden to win Senate confirmation of his appointees, for Congress to revoke controversial rules finalized in the past months of President Donald Trump’s administration, and for lawmakers to pass new legislation aimed at curbing climate change and boosting federal research investments. Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock beat Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) in yesterday’s election, becoming the first Black Democrat elected to the Senate from the South, and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff defeated Senator David Perdue (R), according to several media outlets. If the results stand, Republicans and Democrats would each control 50 seats in the Senate that convenes later this month, with Vice President–elect Kamala Harris providing the tie-breaking vote that gives Democrats control. Republicans have held control of the Senate since 2015. The most immediate change would be in the Senate’s leadership. Senator Chuck Schumer (D–NY) would replace Senator Mitch McConnell (R–KY) as majority leader, giving Democrats extensive power to decide legislative priorities and which bills advance to final votes. Although Schumer’s job as Senate leader means he will have to balance the many competing demands of his caucus, he has recently shown a keen interest in boosting federal spending on research. Earlier this year, he was a key player in crafting bipartisan legislation, the Endless Frontiers Act (S. 3832), that calls for giving the National Science Foundation (NSF) a sweeping makeover. It would change the agency’s name to the National Science and Technology Foundation and give it an additional $100 billion over 5 years along with responsibility for maintaining U.S. global leadership in innovation. Schumer has also said he would work with the Biden administration to advance climate legislation and boost federal spending on clean energy research. Each of the Senate’s 20 permanent committees, which do most of the work of crafting legislation, would also get new leaders. The powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, which sets annual spending levels, is expected to be led by Senator Patrick Leahy (D–VT), a longtime advocate of environmental protection. Although the panel often works in a bipartisan manner, Leahy will likely play a key role in trying to help the Biden administration realize its spending priorities.
Biden set to supercharge clean energy push with $40B stash - DOE is poised to again play an essential role as the Biden administration looks to leverage clean energy investments toward its twin goals of pulling the economy out of a deep slump and delivering on the president-elect’s ambitious climate pledges.And Biden, who oversaw the Obama administration’s stimulus work as vice president, unknowingly left himself a down-payment for the work ahead: $40 billion in unused Energy Department loan authority awarded under the 2009 stimulus. That pot of money could offer a way to kick start his climate and infrastructure plan at a time when a narrowly divided Congress may balk at his call to spend $2 trillion over four years. The Energy Department will play a key role in helping slash emissions from the transportation sector, the largest contributor to climate change. Electrifying the nation's fleet of vehicles would represent one of the most seismic market and technological upheavals in recent history. And the department will also have a major role to play in stanching emissions from buildings, appliances and the electric power sector. “This situation does feel eerily reminiscent of what it was like during the Obama administration,” said Sanjay Wagle, who served in Obama’s DOE and now is managing director of investment firm The Lightsmith Group. DOE's loan program helped a raft of clean energy companies deploy projects across the country during the early Obama years, when it provided financing that helped drive down the cost of solar and wind farms. But it became a political target after solar company Solyndra collapsed, defaulting on more than $500 million in federal loans — even though the overall program recorded an overall default rate of less than 3 percent, far lower than private lenders typically experience, according to a Bipartisan Policy Center analysis. That loan capacity had been neglected by the Trump administration, which detractors contended was evidence of its resistance to aiding clean energy sources that would have competed against the coal, natural gas and oil industries. Now, advocates say the incoming Biden administration could simply tweak the loan program’s language to make it the backbone of a government-wide clean lending bank that enables the rapid deployment of new innovations, like the installation of batteries and other energy storage technology to support the growth of renewable power.
Biden climate team says it underestimated Trump's damage -- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 -- President-elect Joe Biden's transition team says the Trump administration has done more damage than anticipated to the government's ability to address climate change. Potentially lowering expectations for the incoming president's early climate efforts, Biden officials say their agency review teams have found deeper budget cuts, wider staff losses and more systematic elimination of climate programs and research than they realized. Some climate moves can't happen until Biden officials remedy those deficiencies, a senior transition official said, because "those have been very carefully directed budget cuts to the very parts of the [EPA] that are going to be necessary to get rid of [Trump's] outrageous rollbacks." For instance, the official said, EPA's research laboratories have been hollowed out, and its science advisory boards have been depopulated. At the operational level, each of Trump's rollbacks has shuffled the staff and funding that had been in place to carry out regulations. The EPA workforce has shrunk by more than 600 people since the beginning of Trump's term, another source familiar with the agency review process said. That's on top of the agency's moves to restrict the kinds of public health research that EPA can use for regulations, and its watering down of the social cost of carbon, the government's metric for analyzing the benefits of emissions cuts. Elsewhere in government, the official said, the Trump administration has curtailed the Energy Department's Quadrennial Energy Review and other research; moved to cut the Treasury Department's office of energy and environment; and disengaged from the international Arctic Council while blocking climate work at the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues its efforts to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling and to expand logging in the Tongass National Forest, one of the country's largest carbon sinks. "In looking at those [regulatory] rollbacks, we sort of understood the task ahead was going to be daunting. But really, the rebuilding efforts across the government are going to be more extensive than we have understood before," the senior transition official said on a background call with reporters. "When the agency review teams are going into the agencies to assess the challenges ... they are leaving those agencies with a really much bigger understanding of the challenges ahead."
How the Department of Defense could help win the war on climate change - President-elect Joe Biden has warned that climate change will pose future threats for the U.S. military as it worsens unrest in volatile regions and creates new dangers to its facilities from rising seas, powerful storms and harsh droughts. But the Defense Department also offers a silver lining on climate change for the new president: a huge appetite for clean energy sources and a massive budget to help accelerate the development of new technologies needed to curb greenhouse gases and harden infrastructure to protect against worsening climate impacts. Biden has called climate change an "existential threat" and promised to spend $2 trillion to expand clean energy and build resilient facilities over the next four years. But that ambitious plan will need approval from Congress — a heavy lift that's likely to draw resistance from Republicans who may control the Senate and block any major green plans. That's where the Pentagon can provide some help. The Pentagon has long been a crucial customer for clean energy technologies, driving the country's adoption of solar power and the rollout of mobile batteries. Now, its $700 billion budget may offer an opportunity for the Biden administration to help scale-up industries such as those producing electric vehicles and advanced batteries. "Start with the fact the Department of Defense is the single largest energy user," said Sherri Goodman, a deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security under Obama and now a senior fellow at the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program, a think tank. "What it does and how it uses its energy, how it reduces its emissions, makes its bases more resilient to climate threats — that helps all America by learn by example." Though its energy consumption has been declining for years, the Defense Department is still by far the largest energy user in the federal government — accounting for more than three-quarters of total government energy usage and 15 times the energy consumption of the Post Office, the No. 2 consumer — and it emits about 1 percent of the total U.S. carbon emissions.M
New York’s Real Climate Challenge: Fixing Its Aging Buildings - The New York Times - A plan to upgrade a cluster of nine unremarkable apartment buildings in Brooklyn typically would not merit a second look. But this isn’t a quick fix; the project, called Casa Pasiva, aims to be a new model for the sustainable transformation of the city’s housing stock. Sleek new skyscrapers that incorporate the latest energy-efficient building materials like mass timber may look impressive, but when it comes to solving the climate crisis in New York, the real challenge lies in the city’s decades-old structures. More than 90 percent of the buildings in New York today will still be standing in 2050, and nearly 70 percent of the city’s total carbon emissions come from buildings. Taken together, these facts suggest that the fate of those nine nondescript Brooklyn buildings, and others like them, is essential to cutting emissions. Instead of demolishing older buildings, owners and developers are devising ways to retrofit them with the latest green technology. Casa Pasiva, a $20 million retrofit project in the Bushwick neighborhood, aims to be a pioneer. The developer behind the project is pushing an aging collection of buildings to the cutting edge by essentially turning them inside out, all without tenants needing to relocate. Interior pipes, radiators and heating ducts will be removed or sealed, and a new facade on each building will cover a new all-electric heating and cooling system. The project is being overseen by the nonprofit RiseBoro Community Partnership, which owns the structures. When Casa Pasiva is finished next summer, the buildings will meet a strict passive house standard, a modern building convention that substantially reduces heating and cooling costs, thanks to their airtight exteriors. The fading brick and concrete walls of the Casa Pasiva buildings will be buried under a white, sculptural surface that will help slash energy costs by 80 percent, according to RiseBoro. “Our mission is long-term affordability, and low energy use is a stabilizing force,” said Ryan Cassidy, director of sustainability and construction at RiseBoro. He estimates the retrofit project, which is the first of its kind in New York, will cut energy costs by $180,000 a year. “It’s good for the environment, but it’s also good for our budgets.” Casa Pasiva received $1.8 million in financing from RetrofitNY, a program funded by the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority. The agency is investing about $30 million in RetrofitNY projects. The effort to help kick-start the development of low-cost, scalable retrofit technology and build a market for energy efficiency upgrades comes as strict city and state laws trying to reduce the carbon emissions in buildings go into effect. “Fundamentally, what RetrofitNY is about is developing a more streamlined, more modular, more efficient way of achieving deep decarbonization in housing,” said Janet Joseph, senior vice president of strategy and market development at the agency.
North Carolina panel moves to weaken building energy conservation rules -A change to North Carolina’s building code would let developers skimp on insulation and other energy-saving basics in exchange for flashier elements such as solar panels and super-efficient appliances.The state’s building code council last month adopted the new rule, which allows developers to bypass some energy conservation requirements if they follow a voluntary suite of green building standards.Critics believe the change to the state’s energy efficiency code is too poorly written to be implemented, and that it could perish on procedural grounds before a rules review panel, where it heads next. But it highlights the role developers are playing nationwide in stopping efforts to improve building energy efficiency, just as climate scientists say we should be doing the opposite. And it exposes how inadequate North Carolina’s energy conservation code is in light of its own climate goals. To avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, experts believe we must virtually eliminate global warming pollution from all sources, including our buildings, by mid-century. Today, our homes, schools and offices account for nearly 40% of the problem, and without action their emissions are on track to double. “Net-zero” buildings are widely regarded as the solution. “It’s a super-efficient building that produces all of its own energy,” Advocates are pushing for all buildings to become net-zero by 2050, and all new construction to meet that threshold by 2030. But every single structure doesn’t necessarily need its own solar panel or wind turbine, said Cheslak. “What we do desperately need,” she said, “is buildings that do all of the efficiency measures that net-zero buildings do.”
Funding challenges limit minority-owned businesses’ access to energy efficiency - The legacy of systemic racism means many companies still start from behind when competing for financing. Securing capital is a big challenge for many Black- and other minority-owned businesses. Whether through outright discrimination or more subtle bias, many companies face a disadvantage in a financial world where personal relationships can make or break a deal. It’s a particularly vexing problem when it comes to energy efficiency improvements, which can save money and in many cases more than pay for themselves. That dilemma becomes even more pressing as the pandemic continues. “Capital has become an issue for almost every Black-owned business, small and midsize businesses especially,” said Carla Walker-Miller, founder and CEO of Walker-Miller Energy Services in Detroit. In large part, the dilemma’s roots stem from ongoing inequities that stack the deck against people of color. “Equity and equality are not the same,” said Paula Glover, who starts as president at the Alliance to Save Energy this month. She just finished serving as president and CEO of the American Association of Blacks in Energy. “Equity suggests that you have to maybe do more for certain communities,” due to past underinvestment and other factors. And it’s not enough to just make the rules the same for everyone and assume everything will work out, she said. Data on the pandemic’s economic fallout bear that out. During the early months of the COVID-19 crisis, Black-owned businesses closed at more than double the rate of white-owned firms, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reported in October. Latinx-owned businesses were next most likely to fail. And declines in cash balances for some Black-owned businesses were up to nine times as steep as those of non-minority firms. “Minority communities are often in areas of concentrated poverty, a lasting remnant from the days of redlining,” said Amanda Woodrum, senior researcher at Policy Matters Ohio. “Because substantial portions of residents in Black neighborhoods live in poverty, often 40% or more of the population, the communities themselves lack the resources to invest locally.”
Midwest group works to fill alternative fuel station gaps along Interstate 94 -- The thought of a road trip on Interstate 94 a few years ago in anything other than a gasoline-fueled car would have left most drivers with an understandable case of range anxiety. Charging stations and alternative fuel locations were sparse outside of major metro areas and often not easy to locate. Today, the route is less risky for drivers of electric and other alternative fuel vehicles, thanks in part to work by more than a dozen organizations to shrink the gaps for Midwest drivers regardless of their fuel type. The Michigan to Montana (M2M) Alternative Fuel Corridor covers I-94 from Port Huron, Michigan, to Billings, Montana. It is the first multi-alternative fuel corridor in the Midwest, passing through major cities including Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, and the Twin Cities, as well as numerous small cities and rural communities. The project was funded by a three-year, $5 million U.S. Department of Energy grant in 2017 and aimed to speed clean fuel deployment and act as a market accelerator. The objective was to provide charging or fueling options within every 50 miles for electric vehicle drivers and every 150 miles for compressed natural gas and propane vehicle drivers. Stations should be no more than five miles from I-94.
DEQ approves air permit for Align RNG biogas facility, but hog farms will need approvals --The NC Department of Environmental Quality has approved a controversial air permit for a proposed biogas gathering and processing facility in Turkey, on the Sampson and Duplin county line.However, the Align RNG facility, co-owned by Smithfield Foods and Dominion Energy, will not process biogas until the participating hog farms receive the required permits, DEQ announced today.Key details of the$30 million proposal, billed as the largest swine waste-to-energy project in North Carolina, have been kept secret, even from state regulators. Although capturing methane, a potent greenhouse gas and driver of climate change, is important, the Align RNG project is not completely “clean.” A central gas collection facility on the Duplin-Sampson county line would emit more than 60 tons of pollution each year, according to documents submitted to the Division of Air Quality.Nineteen farms, only four of which have been named, would each cover one of their lagoons and install an anaerobic digester to capture the methane, then funnel the gas to a 30-mile long pipeline to the Align RNG station. The gas would be conditioned at the station to be injected into an existing Piedmont Energy natural gas pipeline. While some methane will be captured from the farms, they would still use open lagoons to contain excess waste and would use spray it on their fields, as they have done for decades.
Environmental groups sue Trump administration over rule allowing for faster dishwashers - A coalition of environmental groups sued the Energy Department on Tuesday in an effort to block a new federal rule that would allow for faster dishwashers, arguing it could possibly lead to "higher household utility bills and more pollution."The rule finalized by the department in October would create a product class of dishwashers "with a cycle time for the normal cycle of one hour or less from washing through drying."But the Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club and other groups want a federal appeals court to review and set aside the new rule, saying it is unnecessary in part because "most of today's dishwashers already offer quick cycles, including some that take less than an hour." President Donald Trump railed against dishwasher efficiency while on the campaign trail, including when he referenced suburban women's alleged dissatisfaction with dishwashers. In Michigan last year, for instance, Trump claimed that while dishwashers used to generate an "explosion" at the push of a button, "now you press it 12 times, women tell me.""This was a senseless Trump administration action that hurts consumers and all who've benefited from the significant efficiency gains in dishwashers over more than 30 years," Joe Vukovich, an energy efficiency advocate with the NRDC, said in a statement. "It also sets an appalling precedent that the agency could abuse by picking any trivial feature of an appliance and exempting it from all efficiency standards."
Solar now 'cheapest electricity in history': How much will it matter? -- The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based consortium of 30 countries, has told us in its flagship World Energy Outlook 2020 that solar-produced electricity is now the "cheapest electricity in history." That seems like very good news, that is, until the actual expected impact of that fact is examined more closely. Setting aside any concerns about critical materials needed to make the solar revolution reach completion, it may surprise many readers of the "cheapest electricity in history" headline that growth in solar energy will likely NOT lead to a reduction of fossil fuel burning anytime soon. In fact, the IEA's main forecast has natural gas consumption growing by 30 percent through 2040 while oil consumption levels off but does not decline. Coal use does continue to decline as a share of total energy. With solar energy and other renewables expected to grow so much by 2040, how can this be so? The answer is that what the IEA calls non-hydro renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) will provide 80 percent of the INCREASE in expected global electricity demand. That means that the fossil fuel electricity infrastructure will continue to grow and that existing plants will remain in place rather than be supplanted by renewables. Of course, for the part of the economy that runs on liquid fuels including transportation and many industrial processes requiring high heat, more renewable electricity doesn't make much of a dent in fossil fuel use. Even where transportation is being electrified, the growth in internal combustion engine vehicles continues to dwarf those running on electricity. And then there is the existing fleet of fossil-fueled vehicles on the road. Is it realistic to expect all or most will be replaced by electric vehicles when these existing vehicles are junked?The IEA's main scenario is better than if all the increase in energy demand were met by fossil fuels. But as the IEA admits, under this scenario our climate change problem continues to worsen. The agency does outline scenarios in which fossil fuel use would drop and renewables would expand more robustly. But these are all outside current policy. Clearly, the agency believes there will be some policy movement, and it is actually pleading for that movement with its scenarios. The sparkling future promised to us by the promoters of green energy most often assumes that we have far more time to make the transition than we do. And, it assumes that we can scale renewables to the level of energy consumption we have today and larger in the future. Even those who are touting energy conservation and efficiency are generally not suggesting that the global economy dramatically reduce its energy consumption. But reducing energy use seems to me to be the fastest, surest path forward for a stable economy, society and climate.
What Matters for Electrification? – Berkeley was the first, but now more than thirty municipalities in California have enacted measures limiting or prohibiting natural gas in new homes. The list includes San Francisco, San Jose, and most recently, Oakland. Proponents argue that electrifying buildings is critical if the U.S. is to sharply reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the building sector. Critics argue that electric heat costs more per unit of heating, so electrification mandates are expensive. Mostly missing from this discussion, is that home electrification is nothing new. In a new Energy Institute working paper, I document dramatic growth in residential electric heating over the last seven decades and ask two questions: (1) What explains this increase? and (2) How much would U.S. households be willing to pay to avoid an electrification mandate? Only 1% of U.S. homes in 1950 used electricity as their primary heating fuel. Electric heating has increased steadily since that time, reaching 8% in 1970, 26% in 1990, and 39% in 2018. Electricity is today the dominant form of heating in the Southeast and widely used throughout the West and Midwest. What explains this increase? The paper proposes and tests five hypotheses. To distinguish between the different explanations, a statistical model is constructed using data on heating choices from millions of U.S. households over the period 1950-2018. There is considerable inertia with home heating decisions, so the model is focused on the initial heating choice at the time each home is constructed. But by far the most important single factor is energy prices. U.S. residential electricity prices have fallen over 50% in real terms during this time period, while residential natural gas and heating oil prices have both increased. The statistical model reveals a pronounced negative and statistically significant relationship between electricity prices and electrification. The effect is large in magnitude. Everything else equal, going from 21.6 cents per kWh (the current price in Massachusetts) to 9.6 cents per kWh (the current price in Louisiana) implies a 32 percentage point increase in electric heating. Changing energy prices explains 70% of the increase in electrification since 1950.
ATXI completes $1.4bn power transmission line project in US -- Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois (ATXI) has energised the final span of a $1.4bn power transmission line project in the US. The Illinois Rivers Project runs between Palmyra, Missouri and Sugar Creek, Indiana. the lines stretch over 375 miles, carrying 345kV. ATXI chairman and president Shawn Schukar said: “Our country’s future energy security and sustainability depends on a strong transmission system to enable the transition from coal to renewable energy. “The Illinois Rivers Project is an important component to help deliver clean, affordable and reliable energy to communities across the Midwest and ensure the grid can accommodate ever-increasing renewable resources.” The Illinois Rivers Project is expected to improve energy grid reliability and provide increased transmission capacity. Approved by the regional transmission organisation Midcontinent Independent System Operator in 2011, the project is part of multi-state group of transmission projects called Multi-Value Projects. Transmission owners in the Midwest have started developing the Multi-Value Projects to improve the regional energy grid. The projects will also help integrate renewable energy to meet public policy goals. It will also enable Midwestern families and businesses to access lower-cost energy and electricity from renewable sources.
Columbus to make electricity again with hydro plant refurbishment The last flickers of the city of Columbus' electric-generation program ceased a few years ago when an aging hydropower unit near the Columbus Zoo and Aquarium had finally deteriorated to the point of being shut down. With its shuttering, the remnants of the city's once-expansive public power program went completely dark for the first time in over a century. But at a meeting Dec. 14, the Columbus City Council breathed new life into the utilities' generation program by approving $15.3 million in bond money to repair the plant at O'Shaughnessy Dam. The dam's hydro-generators, which began producing power in 1987 under a federal program to reduce reliance on foreign oil, had a 5-megawatt capacity — enough to potentially power thousands of homes. The city expects to start construction in February, with the plant fully back to its former operational capacity by mid-2023, said George Zonders, a spokesman for the city Department of Public Utilities, which serves about 17,500 residential and business customers. The generators will be removed and shipped to the original manufacturer for cleaning, inspection and refurbishment as needed. Control panels and switches at the dam will be upgraded to state-of-the-art technology. "The decision was made to refurbish this facility to make full use of an underutilized asset," Zonders said in an email. "This project will further Mayor (Andrew J.) Ginther’s goals for shifting toward green energy and other sustainability goals."
NJ’s first offshore wind farm going big -New Jersey’s first offshore wind farm will also be among the first in the world to be powered by the biggest and most powerful turbines ever built, the project’s developer said. Ocean Wind, a planned farm about 15 miles off Atlantic City, is due to start operating in 2024, using as many as 99 Haliade-X turbines — giant machines that will tower 853 feet (260 meters) above the ocean’s surface, using blades that are 351 feet (107 meters) long, and can each generate enough electricity to power 16,000 homes. The technology, built by GE, has a working prototype near the Port of Rotterdam in The Netherlands, but it hasn’t yet been commercially deployed. The turbines are also scheduled to be used for the planned Skipjack wind farm — much smaller than the New Jersey project — off the coast of Maryland, that is expected to start operating by the end of 2023. GE says each of the turbines, each with a 12-megawatt (MW) capacity, can generate emissions-free electricity that equates to taking 10,000 cars off the road annually.
Fishing groups say Maine needs more time to gather input on floating turbines People who make a living catching fish and lobster off the state’s coast questioned state officials’ commitment to working with the industry on offshore wind.Online stakeholder meetings last month revealed the depth of skepticism Maine officials face from the fishing and lobster industries over a proposal for a small test cluster of floating wind turbines off the state’s southern coast.The series of four webinars, most of which were focused on the fishing industry, were intended to gather input on where to build the project. They were the first of several stakeholder engagement efforts that will continue early this year.Originally announced in late November, the wind farm, which the state calls a “research array,” would be located 20 to 40 miles offshore in the Gulf of Maine and take up about 16 square miles of ocean, with a maximum of 12 turbines. This is about a tenth of the size of commercial wind lease areas along the East Coast, according to the state. The project would initially have a 20-year lease in the federal waters.The state is looking to choose a site from an area (outlined in red on this map) in the Gulf of Maine toward the southern end of the state, roughly east of Portland. While it’s not guaranteed the research array would be in the water before any commercial farms, the state hopes at least some findings from this project will help inform commercial developers. What those findings entail has yet to be determined and will also depend on stakeholder input.
Colorado City Moves Ahead with Upgrades for CNG Storage Capacity --The city of Grand Junction, CO, has chosen to increase its storage capacity of bio compressed natural gas (CNG), which is produced at the city’s Persigo Water Treatment Plant. This project follows a program enacted five years ago to capture methane produced during wastewater treatment. The CNG is used to fuel city vehicles. Currently, over 75% of the gas is able to be used, but to utilize 100%, additional storage and automation of fueling station systems is needed, according to Grand Junction Utilities Director Randi Kim. “We built the facility to clean the gas and then pipe it to our fleet fueling station at our maintenance shop,” Kim said. “Over the course of those five years it has been extremely successful. We now are able to fuel up to 70 vehicles, which include our maintenance vehicles as well as our Grand Valley Transit vehicles.” Kim said the Colorado Department of Local Affairs awarded the city a grant to cover half of the $1 million project cost. The project would help the city cover the cost of the fuel it purchases for fleet vehicles. Fleet demand for natural gas is double what is produced at the treatment plant. “We proposed a project to add additional storage and to automate some of the features that allow us to manage that gas between the time it’s captured and the time that the vehicles are able to be fueled,” Kim said.
Trump to approve land swap for Rio Tinto's Resolution Copper project (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump’s outgoing administration plans to approve a controversial land swap needed for Rio Tinto Ltd and partners to build an Arizona copper mining project that Native American tribes say will destroy sites of cultural and religious value. The move further escalates the growing global clash between indigenous groups, who are increasingly vocal about the need to preserve historical lands, and mining companies eager to produce more copper for electric vehicles and other green technologies. The U.S. Forest Service will publish a final environmental impact statement for the mine on Jan. 15, a necessary step to complete the land exchange, said Tom Torres, acting supervisor of the Tonto National Forest, where the mine would be built. Publication will come five days before Trump is replaced by President-elect Joe Biden, who has not spoken publicly about the project but promised Arizona tribal leaders in October that they would “have a seat at the table” in his administration. Rio Tinto said it is “is committed to ongoing engagement with the Forest Service” once Biden is president, as well as with “with tribes and the community to continue shaping the project and building programs that protect Native American cultural heritage and help diversify the local economy.” Officials from the San Carlos Apache Tribe and the Biden campaign could not immediately be reached for comment. Publication of the final report is a technical requirement for the land swap, which dates back to 2014, when former President Barack Obama approved the process. The government must, within 90 days, swap the land above the copper reserve for acreage that Rio owns nearby. Rio and partner BHP Group Ltd must still get construction permits for the mine, which the incoming Biden administration is likely to oppose or slow-walk, analysts say. The tribe and their allies have vowed not to let the mine open and have already begun lobbying Biden to block construction permits. Some tribal members have said they will physically barricade themselves on the land to prevent the mine’s construction.
Choose this over sulfide mining: renewables, jobs and metals recycling --Reducing our carbon emissions to maintain a livable climate will require building renewable electricity generation. That effort requires copper and other metals. In the coming year, we can expect continued pressure to approve new Minnesota copper sulfide ore mines, ostensibly for a renewable energy supply chain. Not surprisingly, recent mining company-sponsored studies claim that, in the future, renewable energy will require major increases in global copper mining. Naturally, many people are skeptical of company-backed studies. And for good reason. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), current average annual U.S. copper consumption has declined about 25% since the early 1990s. USGS explains that technological advances played a big part in this decline. Fiber optics displaced copper wire in communications and PVC pipes replaced copper pipes in home building and public infrastructure. Meanwhile, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, renewable energy production in the U.S. grew more than 70% during the very same period. Clearly, the relationship between growth of renewable energy and copper consumption is anything but simple. The question “how much copper might renewables require?” most certainly hasn’t been answered. The more important question is “How do we responsibly source that copper?” The answer to that question will determine whether we leave a better Minnesota for our grandchildren. Most of us realize that mining sulfide ores to source copper threatens clean water and public health. Across the United States, every sulfide mine in a water-rich environment has resulted in acid mine drainage and/or toxic metal pollution of lakes, streams or groundwater aquifers. That is a 100% failure to protect water quality. There is nothing magical about locating a sulfide mine in Minnesota that would prevent toxic pollution; if anything, it’s far riskier here in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Nor would mining here miraculously change the practices of multinational bad actors like Glencore, the company behind the PolyMet proposal. If we want renewable energy, good jobs, and a livable climate, then recycling nonferrous metals is the right place to start. Mining copper typically requires a tremendous amount of energy, much of it from fossil fuels. Over its 20-year mining duration, the proposed PolyMet/Glencore mine would generate 16 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent pollution by burning fossil fuels and destroying wetlands where carbon is sequestered. In contrast, recycling copper typically uses 90% less energy. Recycled metals provide a huge and growing resource. The USGS has estimated that, so far, the U.S. is only recycling about one-third of the potential copper available to be recycled. There is a lot of room to grow. Recycling metals is also a powerful way to generate jobs. Copper recycling is more labor-intensive than today’s highly automated mines. Recycling copper and other metals can help address the climate crisis, increase jobs, and provide the materials needed to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Dominion Energy seeks new permit for ongoing project in the Rappahannock —It has been roughly a year since Dominion Energy began construction on the underwater transmission line project in the Rappahannock River and in the shadows of the Robert O. Norris Jr. Memorial Bridge. However, the work has not gone entirely to plan, according to a new permit application Dominion has submitted to the Virginia Marine Resources Commission (VMRC). Among the requests, the utility company is seeking an after-the-fact permit for the current location of work platforms that were not placed according to plans submitted during the original permitting process. The temporary platforms, which are used to work on the pipes and cables prior to installation, were located closer to shorelines and oyster beds on both sides of the river: 1,160 feet on the Middlesex side and 310 feet on the Lancaster side. According to Dominion, the change in platform location was due to a revision in the plans that was not updated with the VMRC. “We regret the inadvertent and unfortunate oversight which led to this situation,” said media relations manager Rayhan Daudani. “There was a discrepancy between our initial construction plans and permitting submission with the final construction layout when a contractor was selected, and the permit details were not updated. We are reviewing our procedures to help ensure this kind of error does not occur in the future.”
South Carolina regulators tell Dominion to rethink its coal fleet – \Dominion Energy must conduct a comprehensive coal fleet retirement analysis and assess replacing its South Carolina plants, according to an order from the state’s Public Service Commission.Commissioners will open a docket ordering Dominion to “evaluate the reliability risks and environmental costs of continued operation of the coal plants.” The order also directs the utility to consider options–informed by resource bids–to replace coal technology with state-of- the art clean energy as part of its 2022 energy plan update.The order requires the retirement analysis to be completed before Dominion can make any decisions about spending customers’ money to retrofit the Williams and Wateree coal plants. Both plants need to be retrofitted to meet federal rules meant to protect waterways from mercury, arsenic and other pollutants.The order was met with praise from both renewable energy proponents and environmental conservationists alike. Will Harlan, senior representative for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign in South Carolina, said, “We’re confident a thorough analysis of Dominion’s coal fleet will show that phasing out these dirty, polluting plants and replacing them with clean, affordable energy is the best path forward.” The new order comes less than a month after the Commission unanimously rejectedDominion’s proposed integrated resource plan (IRP).The rejected IRP, according to the Commission, failed to include a demand side management resource option or power purchasing options. The IRP also did not model any renewable energy additions prior to 2026, nor any coal retirements prior to 2028. The IRP also proposed raising solar customers’ basic service charge to $19.50 a month, adding a “solar subscription fee” of $5.40/kW a month and slashing the solar export credit that customers can receive.The fees were described by Kate Lee Mixson, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, as an attempt to “keep customers tethered to Dominion’s rising rates.”
Coal firm Blackjewel's exit from bankruptcy delayed, hearing continued into new year - The bankruptcy case involving coal firm Blackjewel will stretch into the new year, after a federal judge blocked a request from the former CEO and coal magnate Jeff Hoops to liquidate the company this month. This means the case will proceed as a Chapter 11 reorganization case, but an exit plan has yet to be approved by the court. Another hearing will take place in January instead. The events of the latest hearing held Thursday mark yet another twist in the over 18-month long bankruptcy case that captured the attention of the nation last year.Blackjewel formerly owned the Eagle Butte and Belle Ayr mines in Wyoming before falling into debt and declaring bankruptcy in the summer of 2019. The coal operator also shuttered several mines out East at the same time. Nearly 1,700 miners were shut out of work for months. A new owner, Eagle Specialty Materials, now operates the Wyoming mines. But Blackjewel’s contentious legacy and unresolved bankruptcy continues to weigh on the new operator, not to mention creditors, regulators and miners. In a sign the bankruptcy case was approaching a resolution, Blackjewel attorneys presented a plan for exiting Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October. A bankrupt company must have a formal plan approved by the court before a bankruptcy can conclude. The plan typically outlines how the company will settle creditors’ claims and tie up other lose ends. But Hoops, Blackjewel’s former CEO, petitioned the court in an 11th-hour request to liquidate the company instead of reorganizing it. In other words, Hoops and seven other parties filed a joint motion on Nov. 25, requesting the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of West Virginia convert the case to Chapter 7. They cited Blackjewel’s “lack of operating assets, negative net cash flow, and continuing financial losses,” according to the motion. Blackjewel reported having a mere $133,000 in cash remaining, according to court documents, as of Nov. 30.
Environmental Groups Call On MidAmerican Energy To Retire Coal Power Plants | Iowa Public Radio -Three environmental groups are calling on MidAmerican Energy to retire its coal-fired power plants and replace them with renewable energy, in order to save ratepayers millions of dollars. As the cost of renewable energy has declined across the country, coal plants are becoming less competitive.By retiring two coal plants in Sioux City by 2023, MidAmerican Energy could save $92 million, according to a Sierra Club analysis of the company’s own data.The Sierra Club, the Environmental Law and Policy Center, and the Iowa Environmental Council are urging the investor-owned utility to do just that, saving ratepayers millions of dollars and avoiding the public health and climate impacts of the plants.“There are a lot of utilities that, once they crunch the numbers, they found that the better option for customers is closing down these expensive old plants and replacing them with renewables,” said Kerri Johannsen, Energy Program Director for the Iowa Environmental Council.The environmental groups are making the arguments to the Iowa Utilities Board, which is currently reviewing MidAmerican’s latest emissions plan, which rate-regulated utilities are required to update every two years.Under Iowa Code, investor-owned utilities are required to meet state and federal environmental standards while operating in a cost-effective manner. By not contemplating the cost-benefit analysis of closing its coal plants, the environmental groups argue MidAmerican is not meeting that standard.“The argument we’re making is that MidAmerican’s plan does not meet that standard of managing these emissions cost-effectively because shutting down the plants would be more cost effective,” Johannsen said.
Xcel Energy speeds up retirement of coal-burning power plant in northwest Colorado - Xcel Energy will close a coal-burning power station in northwest Colorado by 2028, retiring the 441 megawatts of electricity generation there several years early as it shifts to more renewable energy. The company, Colorado’s largest power utility, will shut down the Hayden power plant’s two coal-burning units in 2027 and 2028, the company announced Monday, accelerating the closures previously projected to be in and 2030 and 2036. About 75 people work at the power plant. Xcel Energy doesn’t anticipate laying off the employees there. Instead, Xcel plans on encouraging employee retirements in the intervening years, plus retraining the workforce there in other jobs in cooperation with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union Local 111, which represents the plant’s workforce, the company said. “We are committed to supporting our employees and the region as we move forward with our clean energy transition in Colorado. We have a long track record of successfully transitioning coal plants we’ve retired,” said Alice Jackson, president of Xcel Energy-Colorado, in a press release. “Our top priority is finding new roles for our workers and supporting the communities that have served us so well.” The retired coal-powered electricity generation will be replaced largely with wind and solar power that Xcel Energy is adding. About 1.5 million customers in Colorado, mostly concentrated in the Denver-metro area, buy their electrical power from Xcel Energy.
Pushback on Xcel's coal plant closures - For environmental advocates, the closing of the Hayden coal-burning power plants in 2027 and 2028 announced on Monday by Xcel Energy won’t be soon enough. Xcel ratepayers, they say, would be better off with retirements early in the decade, not later. Contemplating the loss of property tax revenues from the plants and likely an associated coal mine, elected officials in Hayden and Routt County see that day of reckoning arriving plenty soon. The fulcrum for this debate will be the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, which later this year will begin hearing the evidence. Western Resource Advocates will be among those calling for earlier retirements. “Ceasing operation of the Hayden coal plant before 2027-28 could bring even greater economic and environmental benefits for the West,” said Erin Overturf, deputy director of the group’s Clean Energy Program. The Sierra Club echoed that argument, citing a 2019 report by Strategen that found closing the two Hayden units by 2023 would save customers of Xcel and other utilities $246 million. Calculating benefits through the social cost of carbon, the benefits would increase to $1.3 billion. At least one state senator agrees. “Let’s be blunt about it. The Hayden power plant is not economic today. It makes sense to close it as soon as possible,” says State Sen. Chris Hansen, a Democrat from Denver and among the architects of key energy legislation of recent years. “There are alternative power options that are much less costly and better for the environment.” An even more blunt assessment came from Ron Lehr, a former PUC commissioner. “This old dog is losing money,” he said in an e-mail. “Why lose more money by waiting 7 or 8 more years to stop the bleeding. Is it because Xcel shareholders get paid to hang on, even though consumers pay more than they should?”
AEP consideration of retiring Marshall County coal plant continues trend, rouses both sides of debate over coal's future in WV - There have been 10 conventional steam coal plants retired in West Virginia since 2005, and there are only nine left in the state, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. At least one of the remaining nine could be retired before the decade is done, continuing a trend of dwindling coal plants across West Virginia as the coal industry fights to preserve itself amid a shift toward renewable energy that is taking shape more quickly outside the Mountain State’s borders than inside them. Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power said in a recent filing with the Public Service Commission of West Virginia that the Mitchell coal-fired generating facility in Marshall County would cease operation in 2028 if the companies choose to retire the plant rather than make an additional investment to ensure that the plant complies with federal guidelines limiting wastewater to continue operating beyond that year. The companies say they could make modifications to comply with the wastewater rule and a federal rule regulating coal combustion residuals at the Mitchell plant, the John Amos plant in Putnam County and the Mountaineer plant in Mason County that would allow each of those plants to operate until 2040, and the filing argues that it would benefit customers to ensure compliance at the John Amos and Mountaineer plants and keep them operating until the end of their projected useful lives in 2040. But the companies report that performing only the coal combustion residual compliance work at Mitchell and retiring the plant in 2028 has “comparable costs and benefits” to making the additional wastewater compliance investment to allow the plant to operate beyond 2028. Replacing a portion of the retired Mitchell capacity with a portion of Appalachian Power’s excess capacity in 2028 would result in savings to West Virginia customers of approximately $27 million annually from 2029 to 2040, the companies said in the Dec. 23 filing. Appalachian Power and Wheeling Power are seeking permission to perform all of the work at all of the plants, which they estimate would cost $317 million, and listed potential project-related residential, commercial and industrial rate increases of 1.59%, 1.52% and 1.72%, respectively. The proposed increased project-related rates and charges would produce $23.5 million annually in additional revenue, according to the companies.
Massive Mexico Blackout Sign of Faltering Energy Security -On December 28 at 2:28pm, the Mexican electric power system manager Cenace was thrust into the chaos of a power emergency when 8,696 MW of electricity went offline. At the time, the National Interconnected System that covers Sonora to Yucatán was satisfying a total demand of 31,789 MW, so about a third of the country lost power. Restoration of service took 1 hour and 44 minutes. Cenace claimed the origin of the problem lay in a transmission line in the border state of Tamaulipas. Nothing frightens a power grid operator more than the specter of service interruption. Once the problem is solved, years of consistent work and following protocols are overwhelmed by an avalanche of accusations and strident attacks from affected users. In a politicized environment such as that in Mexico today, in which the energy sector is an arena of confrontation between the current political elite and various economic interest groups, an essentially operational event is turned into a heated discussion over energy policy. The truth is a power disruption can be the result of a concatenation of fortuitous situations without a foreseeable pattern and therefore is outside the scope of the operator’s prevention efforts. But strategic risks do emanate from the major decisions of sector agents, along with market concentration, insufficient investment, and poor energy policy leading to situations that can cause a lack of continuity or reliability in energy supply. At the moment, the official explanation attributes the failure to exogenous events. But what happened can also be seen as part of a slow deterioration in the Mexican energy system accumulated over the past two years. In time, a root cause analysis should shed light on what happened. Ideally, it should be prepared by an agency or company specialized in this kind of investigation with access to all the information available to Cenace about the event. A report of this nature should be reviewed in turn by the Cenace evaluation committee made up of the Ministry of Energy (Sener) and the sector regulator CRE. If it is an event attributable to a failure of a transmission line, CRE should question the CFE division in charge of transmission to determine if its operations have been in accordance with the principles of quality, reliability, continuity and security in accordance with article 28 of the Electricity Industry Law (LIE). CFE could then be subject to the payment of an economic penalty that could reach 10% of its gross income if the problem occurred without just cause. The problem is that for the last two years, the patent closeness between Cenace, CRE, Sener and CFE has blurred all the counterweights that motivated the institutional design of the sector. In this context, the statements in the wake of the event by Cenace and CFE provoke all kinds of suspicions. A review that reveals that the operational failure was a mere fortuitous event will hardly be accepted by private sector players. The problem is the government has asked its ministries and regulators to strengthen state monopolies and discourage private participation in the supply of primary and secondary energy. The result is a concentration of market power and a slowdown in investment in infrastructure by the private sector leading to a breakdown in energy security.
Chinese cities reportedly go dark as country faces shortage of coal, a major Australian export — Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal. Analysts said prices of the commodity in the country have shot up due to the reported crunch. The reports also follow rising trade tensions between Beijing and Canberra, leading some analysts to tie the coal shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal. Relations between the two nations soured last year after Australia supported an international inquiry into China's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Coal is just one in a growing list of Australian goods that China is targeting, as a result of their escalating dispute. Last year, China told its power plants to limit the amount of coal imports from other countries to keep a lid on prices. Beijing reportedly lifted those restrictions later, but didn't remove curbs on coal imports from Australia. China also reportedly gave state-owned utilities and steel mills verbal notice to stop importing Australian coal. China is the world's largest coal consumer and its greatest source of coal imports was Australia. Coal is the energy source that the world's second largest economy predominantly relies on — even as it has committed to a renewable energy plan. China is the second-biggest buyer of Australia's thermal coal, a variety used to generate power. Prices of coal in China have shot up as a result of the shortage and research firm Wood Mackenzie predicts they will remain high during the peak winter demand period. "China's thermal coal market is in chaos, with prices rocketing after daily price index releases were suspended on 3 December," research firm Wood Mackenzie said. The report said power rationing "has already commenced" in Hunan and Zhejiang provinces due to the shortages, and there is "little scope" for increased production from Chinese producers. Concerns about the availability of electricity for ordinary Chinese spiked in December. A widely shared online article listed planned blackouts by the Shanghai State Grid for different parts of Shanghai on Dec. 22. Other regions have also restricted electricity use, the Shanghai State Grid added. Some cities, primarily those in southern China, have imposed limits on off-peak electricity usage for factories since mid-December, according to a report last week by the South China Morning Post. In the tech hub of Shenzhen, there have been week-long blackouts in different areas, the report said. It was not immediately clear whether any of the blackouts actually happened, or to what extent. Senior economist Marcel Thieliant at research firm Capital Economics said the blackouts are "underlining that China is willing to go to great lengths to harm Australia."
Coveted Port For Wyoming Coal On Last Legs With Authorized Lease Rejection A long sought after terminal to ship coal internationally from Washington may soon no longer be in the cards. A federal bankruptcy court has authorized the rejection of the ground lease between the Millennium Bulk Terminals-Longview, LLC and Lighthouse Resources Inc, effective this Friday, Jan. 8.Lighthouse, owner of the Millennium Facility via a debtor, has sought to ship coal off the Washington coast for years; Millennium submitted permit applications back in 2012. The western state, though, never permitted the project and it's since been held up in court. Wyoming is currently involved in litigation hoping to bring the port to fruition.On Dec. 3, 2020, Lighthouse filed a voluntary petition for Chapter 11 bankruptcy relief. The company has not been able to secure either a buyer or a stalking horse bidder for the terminal. A stalking horse bidder is meant to serve as a low-bar for any future bid."Without a stalking horse bid for the Millennium Facility, the Debtors can no longer justify the continued cash outlay to the estates related to operations at the Millennium Facility," read a Dec. 23, 2020 filing in the bankruptcy docket.In other words, the company can no longer afford to operate the Millennium Assets.Instead, if Jan. 8 comes without new action, Lighthouse can turn over the terminal to Northwest Alloys, Inc, which currently leases land to Millennium.Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a renewable energy think-tank, said the move could be a way for Lighthouse to put pressure on a behind-the-scenes buyer. Alternatively, he said it could just be the last option."Only an unusual last minute maneuver is likely to save the port," said Williams-Derry.Wyoming has held out hope for the port's construction, despite consistent pushback from both Washington and the courts. On Jan. 24, 2020, Wyoming and Montana filed a motion requesting the U.S. Supreme Court consider claims that Washington unconstitutionally blocked access to coal shipments.
Texas could shield coal companies from tougher Biden EPA rules - Texas may soon get authority over the disposal of ash from coal-fired power plants, a change that could insulate coal companies from tougher rules expected under a Biden administration. A proposal introduced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this month would allow Texas to regulate coal ash instead of the federal agency. The move comes just after the EPA this year weakened the Obama-era rule on coal ash pollution amid other rollbacks and rule-making maneuvers cementing the Trump administration’s environmental agenda. Coal ash is a byproduct of burning coal for power generation. The ash is typically dumped into detention ponds or pits and can leach toxic chemicals, such as arsenic, lead and mercury, into groundwater. All of the coal power plants in Texas have coal ash disposal sites that are leaking contaminants, according to data analyzed by the Environmental Integrity project in 2019. President-elect Joe Biden’s reported pick to head the EPA, Michael Regan, currently leads North Carolina’s environmental agency and has a record of cracking down on coal ash pollution: In North Carolina, he fought to obtain a huge settlement over an 80 million ton coal ash cleanup by Duke Energy — the largest coal ash contamination cleanup in U.S. history. But if Texas gets authority to implement the coal ash rules before Biden’s new EPA chief has a chance to strengthen the standards, the program could act as a temporary shield for the industry because the state would need to work through a lengthy process to modify already-issued registrations to coal companies. “It’s always better for industry if the state has control instead of EPA,” said Abel Russ, a senior attorney for the Environmental Integrity Project who helped draft the organization’s comments on Texas’ coal ash program. “States are typically more favorably inclined to what industry wants. That’s true not just in Texas, but across the country.”
Miss. plant raises concerns about nuclear power -- Wednesday, January 6, 2021 -- Chronic downtime at the largest single-unit U.S. nuclear power station is raising questions about the electric industry's argument that aging reactors provide critical reliability and help decarbonize the grid.The Grand Gulf plant in Mississippi was at reduced or zero power about 74% of the time in 2020, daily reactor status reports show. The reasons included refueling, maintenance and unplanned outages at the aging 35-year-old plant.That means Entergy Corp., which is the plant's main owner, and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which operates the regional grid, often have to rely on other generation to fill the gap — possibly costing more and boosting greenhouse gas emissions if fossil fuel sources are tapped."The same rule applies to Grand Gulf as applies to coal, to gas, to any resource that we know we're paying more for than we're getting from," said Logan Atkinson Burke, executive director of the New Orleans-based Alliance for Affordable Energy. "And the question is, who's profiting from that, and who is being burdened by it?"Experience at Grand Gulf suggests regulators and plant operators may need to consider new approaches and closer oversight of aging reactors, which face an uncertain future if they become too expensive to repair and maintain, observers say. This could have national implications as the electricity industry tries to transition away from fossil fuels and aims to rely more heavily on carbon emissions-free nuclear power.The industry says nuclear plants are performing well broadly and companies are making investments to keep them operating. But Grand Gulf shows that a reactor that often goes offline can be expensive and undermine climate goals. An examination of New Orleans, for example, provided a snapshot in the past, estimating that a multiday unplanned outage at Grand Gulf in late 2018 resulted in higher costs of more than $1 million for New Orleans ratepayers, according to data from the city.
New York Passes First-in-the-Nation Tax on Spent Nuclear Fuel - New York communities surrounding the soon-to-be decommissioned Indian Point nuclear power plant will be able to collect taxes on spent fuel, according to first-in-the nation legislation signed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The measure (S.8075/A.10398) amends the tax law to include spent nuclear fuel pools and dry fuel cask storage systems as real property following the closure of the power station. The law is the first of its kind in the nation, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute, a nuclear industry trade association. It was signed by Cuomo (D) late on Dec. 31 and took effect Jan. 1.
New nuclear plant could rise at site of former one in NJ (AP) — The company that’s in the process of mothballing one of the nation’s oldest nuclear power plants says it is interested in building a new next-generation nuclear reactor at the same site in New Jersey. Holtec International last month received $147.5 million — $116 million of which will come from the U.S. Department of Energy — to complete research and development work on a modern nuclear reactor that could be built at the site of the former Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station in the Forked River section of Lacey Township, New Jersey. Holtec owns that facility and oversaw its shutdown in 2018. The Camden company’s interest in building an SMR-160 reactor, which would be a nationwide demonstration project, was first reported Friday by an engineering industry website. “As part of our application to the Department of Energy for its advanced reactor demonstration program, we expressed interest in possibly locating an SMR-160 small modular reactor at the Oyster Creek decommissioning site in the future,” company spokesperson Joe Delmar said in an email Tuesday. “This concept is only preliminary and something we would likely discuss with Lacey Township and the community if plans to locate (the reactor) at Oyster Creek evolve.” Delmar said Holtec is “actively engaged with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission” about the project, but has not yet formally applied to build the reactor. Holtec calls the SMR-160 “a versatile, safe, and economical small modular reactor,” one in which all key components, including cooling water, are sealed within containment facilities, and that can quickly be shut down during an emergency. It uses no pumps or valves. The proposed reactor would power about 160,000 homes, compared to the 600,000 that were powered by Oyster Creek. “Things are going from bad to worse,” he said. “What was supposed to be the cleanup and ending of the Oyster Creek nuclear plant is now being looked at for another nuclear power plant. The whole point of closing and decommissioning this site was to get rid of the oldest and probably most dangerous nuclear plant. Putting all of that nuclear material in one area that is vulnerable to climate impacts like sea-level rise is a disaster waiting to happen.”
Nuclear industry must live up to environmental claims - As the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities gets ready to consider additional nuclear subsidies, it may be a good time to reconsider the benefits of nuclear energy and its effect on our environment. Specifically, we might want to ask whether the claims for nuclear energy are consistent with professed values, often reflected in the industry’s raison d’être as a champion of environmental and sustainability. Or are nuclear positions merely a cleverly concocted smokescreen from creative public relations folks to attain immediate-term financial goals while diverting attention from more serious issues? The nuclear industry has skillfully laid the groundwork, seizing the emotional high ground with public statements supporting the gospel of environmentalism and even earning the blessing and concurrence of long-time antagonists. No question, carbon-free generation is a worthy goal, yet given the variability of solar and wind, most reasonable energy watchers have reluctantly concluded that nuclear and natural gas generation will be around in the foreseeable future to ensure adequate power when needed. Nonetheless, playing the environmental card with nuclear can seem a bit sanctimonious. Nuclear is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the power-generating world. Along with the attractiveness of carbon-free generation, nuclear has its dark side, the frightening specter of both horrific accidents along with its deadly waste that will be coexisting with humanity for tens of thousands of years. Given the amount of energy (heat) produced by nuclear fission, the core of a nuclear reactor where fission takes place requires cooling. Components of the core can melt from all the energy released by these reactions if it is not controlled. If a breach of the containment vessel occurs from melting or other forces, extremely radioactive material dangerous to living creatures is released and can react in damaging ways giving rise to cancer and other deadly effects.Nuclear reactions also produce a dangerous residual product, the radioactive waste that is composed of unconverted uranium along with other byproducts such as plutonium and curium, which stay radioactive for extremely long periods of time. This waste needs to be stored until it is relatively harmless, presenting yet another significant environmental challenge.The mining and processing of nuclear fuel can also present many destructive environmental effects, but the most adverse environmental consequence from nuclear energy comes from radiation produced by fission and the generated waste once the fuel is spent. Radioactive material remains with us for eons. Sitting in storage casks in concrete containment structures and/or water pools just short distances from major metropolitan areas like Philadelphia and New York, home to millions of people, our current practices with nuclear generators define brinksmanship.
Radiation levels at Fukushima plant found worse and more lethal than previously assumed = Radiation at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant is far worse than previously thought, with the levels estimated at 10 sieverts per hour-- a fatal dose for anyone who stays in the vicinity for an hour, according to experts. This means it will be extremely difficult for crews to move shield plugs, raising concerns that the plan to decommission the reactors will have to be reassessed. Exceedingly high radiation levels inside crippled reactor buildings at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant were described by nuclear regulators as an "extremely serious" challenge to the overall decommissioning of the site. According to the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), a huge amount of radioactive materials had attached to shield plugs of the containment vessels in the No.2 and No. 3 reactors. With an estimated 10 sieverts per hour, the radiation levels are fatal for anyone who stays even an hour in the area. The finding also means that it would be extremely difficult for workers to move the shield plugs, which raised the prospect that the decommissioning plan will have to be reassessed. Removing the highly contaminated shield plugs added to the challenge of recovering unclear fuel debris-- the most taxing part of the process, said NRA chairman, Toyoshi Fuketa. "It appears that nuclear debris lies at an elevated place," Fuketa said at a news conference in December 2020. "This will have a huge impact on the whole process of decommissioning work." At normal times, the shield plug blocks radiation from the reactor core. Workers remove a shield plug to get access to the containment vessel's interior when unclear fuels need to be replaced. In a study that resumed in September after a five-year hiatus, the NRA conducted fresh measurements of radiation levels in the surrounding areas of the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors. It found that the amount of radioactive cesium 137 was at 20-40 petabecquerels between the top and middle layers of the No. 2 reactor's shield plug. This works out to more than 10 sieverts per hour-- radiation at these levels can be fatal to a person if they spend an hour in the vicinity. Meanwhile, the estimated figure was 30 petabecquerels for the No. 3 reactor. The 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Fukushima caused the shield plug of the No. 1 reactor to slip out of place. It was also damaged by a hydrogen explosion at the reactor building. As larger amounts of cesium 137 leaked from the No. 1 reactor through the damaged plug, the amount of radioactive material was estimated at 0.16 petabecquerels, lower than for the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors. On the other hand, the shield plugs, for the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors remained secure. The Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TECPO) announced that the removal of nuclear fuel debris will be moved to 2022 or later, rather than the initially planned operation in 2021, due to a delay in the development of equipment.
Citizens Utility Board files complaint against ComEd over bribery allegations - Chicago Sun-Times --The watchdog Citizens Utility Board filed a complaint in federal court late Tuesday against ComEd over the utility’s admissions in a blockbuster bribery case last summer.Federal prosecutors accused ComEd in July of sending $1.3 million to associates of House Speaker Michael Madigan for doing little or no work for the utility, all while ComEd hoped to land Madigan’s support for legislation in Springfield worth more than $150 million.Though ComEd formally pleaded not guilty in court, it also admitted to the allegations in what’s known as a deferred-prosecution agreement that could ultimately lead to the dismissal of a bribery charge filed against it. It was also expected to pay a $200 million fine — believed to be the largest criminal fine ever in Chicago’s federal court.That case, as well as the indictment in November of former ComEd CEO Anne Pramaggiore and three other Madigan allies, has threatened Madigan’s hold on the speaker’s gavel. He has not been charged with a crime and denies wrongdoing.The Citizens Utility Board moved in October to intervene in a proposed class-action lawsuit filed against ComEd over the bribery allegations. U.S. District Judge Jorge Alonso gave the group until Tuesday to file its complaint.The complaint alleges ComEd “continues to reap the benefits of its nearly decadelong scheme — even after admitting what it has done.” Meanwhile, it said, “hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic.”Former Gov. Pat Quinn is among the lawyers representing CUB in the case, according to the complaint.
Pressure to pass Ohio nuclear bailout seen in Republican texts, emails -- A Delaware County Republican said he spent 45 minutes on the phone with Republican National Committee Co-Chair Bob Paduchik last spring explaining why he couldn't support the $1 billion bailout of two northeast Ohio nuclear power plants. "This is some next level pressuring," Rep. Rick Carfagna, R-Genoa Township, wrote in a text message. Carfagna's text was one of thousands of documents released in response to a public records request for emails and messages given to the FBI as part of their investigation into whether five men committed federal crimes while trying to pass House Bill 6. Agents arrested former House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, in July on federal racketeering charges. The indictment alleged that he and four other men funneled $61 million through dark money groups and PACs to pass the nuclear subsidy bill and defend it against a referendum. Prosecutors called it the largest public corruption scandal in state history. Carfagna's texts called it vindication. “After every conversation I had with someone on this, I felt like I needed a shower," Carfagna wrote in a message to Americans For Prosperity Ohio Director Micah Derry. "No wonder they’re bankrupt – everyone's on their payroll one way or another. This bill has bad news written all over it both politically and policywise.” Householder and lobbyists Matt Borges and Neil Clark, have pleaded not guilty. Lobbyist Juan Cespedes and strategist and strategist Jeff Longstrethpleaded guilty to federal racketeering charges in October. The Ohio House passed the nuclear bailout 51-38 in July 2019. The law provided six years of financial support to the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear generation facilities by collecting up to $150 million a year from customers. Some of the 16 Republicans who voted no, including Rep. Dave Greenspan, R-Westlake, received messages from Householder like this one: "I want you to remember – when I needed you – you weren’t there … twice.”
Ohio clean energy foe at forefront of key points in bailout law, ratification efforts - Documents made available last week show how House Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz, R-Cincinnati, championed gutting Ohio’s clean energy standards in the state’s 2019 coal and nuclear bailout law. He has since served as a force against repeal.Claims in a federal complaint released in July indicate that the law was at the heart of an alleged corruption scheme involving roughly $60 million. Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, and others were arrested last summer.Failure to repeal the law in 2020 was “an astounding failure by Republican leadership,” said Rep. David Leland, D-Columbus, as the legislature adjourned last month.“Repealing the bill would be the dumbest thing ever done,” Seitz said in an Aug. 28 email to Ohio Energy Association lobbyist Michael Kurtz. “All we need to do is to strengthen the audit standards and possibly revisit the FE [FirstEnergy] decoupling provision. The herd of sheeple are all in a panic over what I consider the best energy bill we ever passed in my 20 years.”The email and other documents are among materials newly available from the Ohio House in response to a federal subpoena issued this past summer. Allegations in the federal criminal case indicate that FirstEnergy and FirstEnergy Solutions — now known as Energy Harbor — provided most of the funding for an alleged scheme to elect favorable lawmakers and then to pass and defend HB 6. The companies have said they are cooperating with ongoing federal investigations and are not named defendants in the criminal indictment, which refers to them as Company A and Company A-1.
Ohio House Will Decide Larry Householder's Fate 'In The Coming Year' | WOSU Radio - Ohio's new General Assembly starts two years of work on Monday, and there's an uncertain future for Larry Householder. The Republican former House Speaker faces a massive federal bribery indictment, but he remains a state lawmaker after winning reelection last fall. State Rep. Bob Cupp (R-Lima), who was elected to replace Householder as Speaker, noted the Ohio Constitution allows a House member to be ousted only once for a given reason. Now that Householder has been re-elected to a two-year term, Cupp said that’s a possibility. “There's an expulsion the House could do if a majority agree. There’s impeachment, that is another option," Cupp said. "And you’ll recall that I have said in the past I think the honorable thing to do would be for the former speaker to resign." Householder was unanimously voted out as the House Speaker over the summer, after he was arrested on federal racketeering charges. Householder and four others were indicted for an alleged $61 million conspiracy that helped Householder get elected Speaker in exchange for the passage of HB6, the controversial nuclear bailout law. Cupp said the House will "develop a consensus" in the coming year on what should happen with Householder, who has said he’s innocent of the charges against him. Two other men have already pleaded guilty in the case. Cupp also said this coming year he wants to revisit changes to the nuclear bailout law, which federal prosecutors say was passed as a result of the conspiracy. While there were several bills to repeal some or all of HB6, no changes were made in 2020..
Ohio Supreme Court delays collection of $170 million in fees involving House Bill 6 - – The Ohio Supreme Court on Monday postponed the collection of $170 million in fees involving House Bill 6, a move stemming from the legal fight over how state regulators set up charges to customers stemming from the tainted legislation. The state’s high court ruled on litigation brought by the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association that challenged how the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio implemented the fees. The manufacturers’ group called the charges “unlawful, unjust and unreasonable.” It has claimed that the fee structure of House Bill 6, a $1 billion bailout of two nuclear plants, will harm large businesses. The bill, which became law last year, is the focus of a federal bribery investigation. The ruling means that the charges, set to begin next week, likely will be postponed until the justices make their decision. That could take two months or more. Under the legislation approved last year, every Ohio electricity customer must pay a monthly surcharge that amounts to about 85 cents for residents and $2,400 for large industrial plants. The charges run through Dec. 31, 2027. House Bill 6 requires the money collected from customers to be deposited into the Clean Air Fund, which the state treasurer would then keep. It would eventually be dispersed to Energy Harbor, which owns the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants along Lake Erie. A former subsidiary of FirstEnergy Corp., FirstEnergy Solutions, had owned the plants until the new company was formed after FirstEnergy Solutions filed for bankruptcy in 2018. “This is a huge win because the charges won’t be collected from customers’ bills,” said Kimberly Bojko, an attorney for the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association. The ruling comes days after Franklin County Common Pleas Judge Christopher Brown blocked the collection of the fees in an order on a preliminary injunction. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost and the cities of Columbus and Cincinnati sought to stop the distribution of the fees, citing the allegations brought by federal prosecutors. An FBI affidavit said FirstEnergy and its affiliates paid $60 million in bribes to then-Ohio Speaker of the House Larry Householder and four allies. The money went to pushing the bill and fighting off a ballot initiative, according to the document. Householders and the others were indicted in July in U.S. District Court in Cincinnati on racketeering charges in what authorities are calling the largest bribery case in Ohio history.
Scandal-battered utility now faces specter of pricy lawsuits (AP) — Ohio’s largest electric utility, its reputation battered by scandal, has been besieged by more than a dozen lawsuits filed by angry shareholders who include some of the country’s biggest institutional investors. And, if history is a guide, FirstEnergy Corp. and its insurers could find themselves paying millions to settle those complaints, as the company did more than 15 years ago when confronted by lawsuits for lying about a dangerous hole in a reactor head at a nuclear power plant and for contributing to the largest blackout in U.S. history. FirstEnergy and insurers for its corporate officers and board of directors paid out more than $100 million to settle lawsuits in 2004. It is far too early to estimate what settlements of the new lawsuits might total, but the potential payouts could far exceed those from 2004, given the losses shareholders claim to have suffered. The latest lawsuits were filed as FirstEnergy became a central figure in what has been called the biggest corruption scandal in state history. The company is accused of secretly funding a $60 million bribery scheme aimed at winning a $1 billion legislative bailout in 2019 for two Ohio nuclear plants operated at the time by a wholly owned FirstEnergy subsidiary. FirstEnergy’s stock price quickly plummeted around 40% after U.S. Attorney David DeVillers announced July 21 that then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others had been arrested on suspicion of having roles in the bribery scheme. The first lawsuits were filed within a week and now total more than a dozen. The bulk have been filed in federal court in Columbus, with several filed in state court in Akron, where FirstEnergy is based. The company is one of the largest electric utilities in the U.S., providing power to customers in parts of six states. Darren Robbins, an attorney for the firm Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd, said stockholder losses have been estimated at $10 billion. “It’s a very ugly situation where a lot of people have been hurt very very badly in Ohio and around the world,” Robbins said. “From what we know, there’s a deeply troubling pattern and practice of misconduct at and around FirstEnergy and those affiliated with it. It’s not very often you have facts compelling enough for the speaker of a statehouse to be taken into custody.”
FirstEnergy Corp. hires new chief legal officer - FirstEnergy Corp. has a new chief legal officer and senior vice president, Hyun Park. Park assumes his new job Jan. 11, when he will lead FirstEnergy's legal, risk and internal audit and oversee the company's ethics and compliance program, the Akron utility announced this week. He succeeds Robert Reffner, who was "separated" from his job as chief legal officer in early November along with Ebony Yeboah-Amankwah, general counsel and chief ethics office, as part of the fallout involving the utility and the ongoing $61 million Larry Householder bribery investigation. The two were separated from FirstEnergy "due to inaction and conduct that the board determined was influenced by the improper tone at the top," FirstEnergy said in a regulatory filing. The two executives left the company shortly after FirstEnergy's board on Oct. 29 fired Chuck Jones, its chief executive officer, and two other senior leaders related to the federal investigation into former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder. Park has experience as general counsel of two publicly held utility companies, including PG&E Corp., and an independent power producer. At PG&E, Park was responsible for all legal affairs, including corporate governance, SEC disclosure, litigation, transactions and regulatory matters, FirstEnergy said in a news release. Hyun will support FirstEnergy efforts to evaluate and advance its ethics and compliance program, said Steven E. Strah, acting chief executive officer and president. "This work is intended to ensure FirstEnergy has the right processes and culture in place as we continue to successfully execute our strategy and deliver value for all our stakeholders."
NEXUS appeal puts eminent domain in the crosshairs — Land was improperly seized to make way for the NEXUS pipeline, according to lawyers for the city of Oberlin. City Council voted Monday to pledge another $18,500 toward its ongoing legal battle over the natural gas line. The funds will go to attorney Carolyn Elefant, who has filed for a rehearing of a case against the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. The case could potentially go to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to Oberlin Law Director Jon Clark. The city first retained Elefant in January 2016 as its representative in proceedings that ultimately led to NEXUS' authorization. Now she will argue that the pipeline company's use of eminent domain to take land from residents and other communities along its 257-mile path was improper. Clark said there is a question about whether eminent domain — using the court system to force sale of private property — could be used, since NEXUS may serve markets in Canada. The Natural Gas Act applies differently when exports are involved, he said. The city's appeal will also focus on the safety of residents who live in the "impact zone" should there be an explosion, Clark said. Some on Reserve Avenue are within 50 feet of the pipeline. NEXUS' impact on the environment will also play a role in the appeal, he said. FERC must balance environmental interests when authorizing energy projects. Clark said the NEXUS pipeline carries fracked gas, "and as everyone knows, fracking is a contributor to global warming." The appeal is likely to take at least a year to reach oral arguments, Clark said. The NEXUS pipeline transports gas from eastern Ohio through Michigan. It does not extend into Canada. Oberlin's suit claims the project "lack(s) any discernible public benefits" and "the adverse effects on landowners and communities are not outweighed by public benefits and that no public use justifies the exercise of eminent domain."
Pennsylvania's impact fee collection anticipated down 28% - Pennsylvania's total impact fee for last year's natural gas production is expected to be down 28% when it is collected in April, according to an estimate from the Independent Fiscal Office. The expected $144.85 million will make it the lowest amount for a year of natural gas production since the commonwealth imposed the impact fee in lieu of a severance tax on production in 2011. The previous record was $173 million in the midst of an industry downturn in the 2016. Most of the $55.9 million decline over 2019's collections — which had been $200.4 million — was due to a sharp drop in NYMEX natural gas pricing and falling below the $2.25 mark. The average price last year was $2.08 per million British Thermal Unit, which because it was below $2.25 it dropped the fee schedule by $5,000 per well. It's based on unconventional natural gas production of 7 billion cubic feet in Pennsylvania, up from 6.8 billion cubic feet in 2019. The fall in the impact fee collections will mean that the share going to counties and municipalities — many in southwestern Pennsylvania where drilling is among the heaviest in the state — will also fall. It's estimated to drop from $109.2 million to $75.9 million. The Marcellus Legacy Fund, which also benefits local communities by paying for infrastructure and environmental projects, will also see a cut from $72.8 million to $50.6 million. The state's share, $10.5 million for commonwealth agencies and $7.9 million for conservation districts, remain unchanged.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman should stand with East Pittsburgh against fracking | Opinion - Fracking in Pennsylvania was one of the big stories of the presidential election. While Donald Trump attempted to whip up fears about a fracking ban here, the national media — with the help of leaders like Fetterman, who has sidestepped fracking as a “complicated” issue — often portrayed Pennsylvania as being strongly protective of the drilling industry. In such a telling, the fracking boom had created desperately needed jobs. However, the truth is that the supposed surge in fossil fuel employment has always been massively overstated. Before the dramatic drop in fossil fuel employment due to the pandemic, fracking accounted for just about 26,000 jobs in Pennsylvania — a far cry from the hundreds of thousands claimed by the drilling industry and pro-fracking politicians. Over the last few years, job growth in the clean energy industries has outpaced gas and coal. Our recent research shows that public investment in wind and solar manufacturing is a more efficient way to create local jobs than betting on a drilling-linked petrochemical boom.For many of us, the important stories about fracking right now are the local communities organizing to rein it in to protect their neighborhoods. It’s easy to understand why this is happening: mountains of evidence show how fracking harms our health, our air, and our water. People who live near fracking wells are more likely to suffer from increased asthma attacks, headaches, and severe fatigue, while recent studies point to lower birth weights and infant health problems in communities near wells. Fracking exacerbates air pollution problems like ground-level ozone and has been linked to hundreds of cases of water contamination or other drinking water impacts, as well as pollution of streams and rivers.The fracking well proposed right in Fetterman’s backyard could be even more dangerous. A New Mexico-based company called Merrion Oil & Gas proposed to drill a new fracking well in East Pittsburgh dangerously close to the densely populated communities of East Pittsburgh, Braddock, and North Braddock, which have all been forced to deal with a history of air pollution from the steel industry.This new fracking well proposal was set to be the next in a long line of environmental injustices that our region has faced — until the people of the Mon Valley simply said no. North Braddock Residents for Our Future have organized their friends and neighbors for years, and that hard work has paid off. In a poll of Democratic voters we commissioned in April to cover the region (where Democrats outnumber Republicans almost four to one), 70% opposed the well.
Corporate diligence topic of W&J energy webinar -- Corporate responsibility in the natural gas industry will be the theme of the next virtual webinar presented by Washington & Jefferson College’s Center for Energy Policy and Management. Executives from two regional production companies – Carrie Crumpton of Southpointe-based CNX Resources and Will Jordan of EQT Corp. – will speak beginning at 11 a.m. Jan. 13. They will focus on responsibility and environmental, social and governance goals their companies have established while operating in the Marcellus and Utica shales, and elsewhere. Crumpton, a Washington resident, is responsible for permitting and reporting compliance at CNX, where she is vice president of Environmental Strategy & Permitting. She also is involved with strategy development for emerging issues and external stakeholder/regulatory engagement. Jordan is executive vice president and general counsel for EQT. Mason Gregory, a senior analyst for MFS Investment Management, also will participate. He specializes in environmental, social and governance topics, and will provide an overview of what they encompass. The free webinar is part of the CEPM’s Shale Gas Knowledge Hub initiative.
UGI to Acquire Mountaineer Energy, including West Virginia LDC, in Deal Valued at $540M - UGI Corp. said Monday it would acquire Mountaineer Energy Holdings LLC, which owns the largest natural gas local distribution company (LDC) in West Virginia, for an enterprise value of $540 million, including about $140 million of debt. The acquisition would hand UGI control of Mountaineer Gas Co., a single-state LDC adjacent to UGI’s existing utility footprint and the largest in West Virginia. UGI’s regulated utility rate base would climb by 14%, while customers served would increase by around 30%. Mountaineer serves close to 215,000 customers in 50 of West Virginia’s 55 counties. Ninety percent of the customer base is residential, with the remainder made up of commercial and industrial customers. Mountaineer has almost 6,000 miles of regulated distribution, transmission and gathering pipelines. “Over the past two years, we have indicated our intention to rebalance our business mix by investing more to build out our natural gas businesses,” UGI President John L. Walsh said. “This transaction is an important step in the rebalancing efforts and will support UGI’s long-term annual commitments” to grow earnings per share by 6-10% and dividends by 4%. “We see significant investment opportunities to continue, if not accelerate, the replacement of over 1,500 miles of bare steel pipelines and expand the reach of natural gas in West Virginia to both unserved and underserved areas,” Walsh said. “These investments will improve the safety and reliability of the distribution system and align with our environmental efforts” to lower methane and other greenhouse gas emissions. “We expect Mountaineer’s rate base to grow by a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10-12% over the long term.”
State tax collections dip in December as income, severance taxes come up short - West Virginia tax collections came up short in December, missing estimates of $386.76 million by $4.5 million, according to figures released by the Senate Finance Committee and the state Auditor’s Office. December revenue collections of $382.2 million also were down $46.03 million from December 2019 collections, as personal income taxes and severance taxes fell short of expectations. One of the two key pillars of state tax revenue, December income tax collections of $159.6 million came in $10.85 million under estimates, and were down $15.17 million from December 2019 collections. The other key revenue source, consumer sales taxes, met expectations, exceeding estimates of $130.2 million by $182,000. December severance tax collections on coal, oil and natural gas production came in at barely half of revenue estimates at $15.63 million. That was also down 62% from December 2019 collections of $42.95 million. At a budget briefing in October, Gov. Jim Justice noted that severance tax collections have shrunk to a point where they are no longer a major component of the state budget.
Atlantic Coast Pipeline restoration planned to start later in WV than other states - It died six months ago, and its burial will remain intact. That doesn’t mean the Atlantic Coast Pipeline will rest in peace anytime soon. The West Virginia wetlands and mountain ranges disturbed by the project won’t, either. The restoration plan that Atlantic Coast Pipeline LLC proposed in a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission made public Tuesday after developers canceled the $8 billion project in July amid legal and regulatory challenges details a nearly three-year time frame for concluding cleanup along the West Virginia portion of the pipeline route through Harrison, Lewis, Upshur, Randolph and Pocahontas counties. The pipeline would have transported natural gas supplies from West Virginia to public utilities in Virginia and North Carolina and was designed to span 600 miles. West Virginia will be the last of the three states to see cleanup and restoration begin, according to the plan. Cleanup is scheduled to begin in West Virginia in April 2022 and finish in December 2022, with a seeding and mulching phase taking place from May 2022 to January 2023 and a monitoring and maintenance phase lasting from May 2022 until November 2023. But in Virginia and North Carolina, all three phases are slated to start before the end of 2021. The project sequencing is mostly based on weather conditions, according to Aaron Ruby, media relations manager for Dominion Energy, which partnered with Duke Energy in developing and later canceling the project. “We’ll start in the south this fall and then make our way north the following spring once it’s warmer in West Virginia,” . The proposed later start for the Mountain State disappointed Angie Rosser, executive director of the West Virginia Rivers Coalition. The conservation group opposed the ACP, joining individuals and other environmental groups in voicing concerns about the impact of a 42-inch pipeline crossing through steep slopes, hundreds of streams and the Monongahela National Forest before continuing into Virginia and North Carolina. Rosser is also concerned about properly controlling erosion in the restoration effort. . “What we’ve seen in other pipelines even smaller than this one is land subsidence or landslides, a catastrophic effect,” Rosser said. “[It’s] not just a runoff effect but a whole side of a mountain running down into a stream. Stabilization and revegetation, it’s really important that it’s done and done quickly.” The restoration plan notes that work in steep West Virginia terrain may require cut-and-fill grading to create a flat surface for vehicles and equipment, a process that usually requires additional workspace and stabilization efforts.
Proposed Virginia rules may delay Mountain Valley natgas pipeline (Reuters) -Virginia environmental regulators have proposed stream-crossing rules that analysts say may delay startup of the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline to 2022, but the companies involved said on Tuesday they were sticking with their late-2021 target. Natalie Cox, a spokeswoman at Equitrans Midstream Corp, one of the companies building the pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia, said the Mountain Valley team was aware of the revised state regulations but “remains confident in achieving its targeted in-service date of late 2021, at a total cost estimate of $5.8-$6.0 billion.” The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) released a letter this week that would bar gas pipes with a diameter of 36 inches (91.4 cm) or more from using the U.S. Army Corp’s proposed 2020 Nationwide Permits to cross streams. Mountain Valley, currently under construction, will use pipe 42 inches in diameter to transport 2.0 billion cubic feet per day of gas from the Marcellus/Utica shale formation in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio to Virginia. One billion cubic feet is enough to supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day. Mountain Valley is one of several oil and gas pipes delayed in recent years by regulatory and legal fights with states and environmental groups that found problems with permits issued by the Trump administration. Instead of using the Nationwide Permit program, which would cover all stream crossings with one permit, the Virginia DEQ wants big gas pipes to seek individual stream-crossing permits, which analysts at Height Capital Markets said would likely push the in-service date for Mountain Valley into 2022. When construction of Mountain Valley started in February 2018, Equitrans estimated the 303-mile (487.6-km) pipe would cost about $3.5 billion and be completed by the end of 2018. Mountain Valley is owned by units of Equitrans, NextEra Energy Inc, Consolidated Edison Inc, AltaGas Ltd and RGC Resources Inc.
'That Terrifies Me': Trump Rule Allows Natural Gas Transport By Rail In Dense Areas - In an effort to boost natural gas exports, the Trump administration has reversed longstanding federal policy and approved transport of gas by rail anywhere in the country. Opposition has come from Hollywood stars, state attorneys general and local residents who worry about the danger this poses. But plans are moving ahead for a New Jersey project that calls for one of the longest such transport routes in the country: 200 miles through densely populated areas of the East Coast. The gas from Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale would first be sent by pipeline to a new liquefaction plant in the rural northeast part of the state. Refrigeration units would chill it to negative-260 degrees Fahrenheit, at which point it becomes liquid and easier to ship. The part of the plan that scares a lot of people is the next step — transporting the gas by truck or rail down the busy I-95 corridor to a planned export terminal along the Delaware River in Gloucester County, New Jersey. "That terrifies me," says Vanessa Keegan, who lives nearby with her family, including her three-year-old son Theo. She points to where rail cars full of highly flammable liquefied natural gas — or LNG — would roll about a block and a half away from her house. "That train track that you could skip on down to in about a minute and a half." A daycare center sits right next to the gate of the planned export terminal. Pipelines are the more common way to move gas long distances, but battles over them have delayed or even scrapped some projects. Trucks are also allowed to transport LNG. But using rail cars in densely populated areas had been limited until the new rule took effect in August. Even before that, Delaware River Partners, a subsidiary of New Fortress Energy, which has ties to President Trump, secured a special federal permit to move the LNG by rail. It allows two 100-car trains to transport the gas each day.In this rust-belt region of New Jersey the project does have support, including from building trade unions and powerful state lawmakers. State Assemblyman John Burzichelli says his grandfather worked at a shuttered DuPont dynamite plant that will house the planned LNG export terminal.
Opponents of New Fortress Energy’s LNG project in Gibbstown, N.J., hope Biden administration will stop project - The Washington Post - Environmental organizations have so far been unable to stop a proposed liquefied natural gas export terminal on the Delaware River but are hoping to find allies in the incoming Biden administration. The terminal, in the New Jersey community of Gibbstown, would receive liquefied natural gas from the fracking fields of northeastern Pennsylvania by train or truck and dispatch it to the Caribbean by ship.
Gas South’s Infinite Energy Acquisition Expands Southeastern Footprint - - Atlanta-based natural gas marketer Gas South said it has completed its takeover of Infinite Energy, creating the largest retail natural gas provider in the Southeast. With the acquisition, Gas South expects to double its annual revenue to $1 billion, providing natural gas to around 425,000 customers in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. Gas South is owned by Cobb EMC, a nonprofit, member-owned electric cooperative. Cobb delivers to nearly 200,000 residential and commercial customers in Georgia’s Cobb, Bartow, Cherokee, Fulton, and Paulding counties. Under the terms of the deal that was announced in October, Gas South acquired Infinite’s wholesale and retail natural gas business and customer list, primarily in Georgia and Florida. Gas South expects to maintain a presence in Gainesville, FL, where Infinite is headquartered. The transaction did not include Infinite’s electricity business in Texas.
Disinterest In Appalachia Could Mean The Rise Of Haynesville Shale - Appalachia, without question, is the current king of dry gas production. The incredible rise in volumes from the Marcellus and Utica shale fundamentally changed the energy landscape in the United States permanently. For context, more than 40% of domestic natural gas production is sourced there, a percentage that has grown without fail, year after year, since horizontal drilling began in earnest. That has often led to some interesting questions, including where benchmark natural gas should be priced. Today, that continues to be via the Henry Hub in Louisiana. Does that small area in Louisiana deserve to be the de-facto benchmark price nationwide, particularly as the area is losing relevance? No doubt that at least for the Eastern United States, Henry Hub has little relevance compared to more local hubs. Perhaps there needs to be change. . For a multitude of reasons such as its proximity to nearly all current liquefied natural gas ("LNG") export terminals and core industrial / commercial consumers along the Gulf Coast, Henry Hub has proven to be the more stable demand center. In-basin pricing issues, something I talked about in depth recently in its own focus article ("Appalachian Producers: Henry Hub Pricing Matters Less Than You Think") has led to wide differentials and poor spot pricing in local Northeastern markets. With most Northeastern natural gas volumes being used in the production of electricity and for heating, the current warm winter has led to a lot instability.So much so that production curtailments have been a major thing, something nearly all Appalachian producers (Range Resources (RRC), Antero Resources (AR), EQT Corporation (EQT), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)) have participated in to some degree. With wells being shut in, it's also no surprise that permitting activity has tanked - which actually might be an understatement. Monthly permit issuance fell to levels not seen in more than a decade. After all, why would a producer file for permits to drill new wells if those very same producers are considering cutting existing volumes? While there's a healthy backlog of drilled but uncompleted ("DUC") wells to work through, this will have to change soon. Even the advances in technology which have boosted estimated ultimate recoveries ("EURs") cannot offset this. Haynesville shale, located nearby to Henry Hub, has seen much more steady permitting interest. Better local demand, plus the benefit of a little less deluge of associated gas production from the major basins in Texas, has really helped boost the prospects for Haynesville shale in 2021. While there's little chance of Haynesville overtaking production from its Appalachian competitor - current production is one third the rate - it could very well be the more stable basin in the coming years, perhaps even returning to incremental growth.
Natural Gas Futures Kick off New Year with Solid Gain; Spot Prices Jump -- Natural gas futures advanced Monday – the first trading session of 2021 – building on the nearly 12-cent gain to finish last year, with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, production flat and the weather-driven demand outlook improved. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.581/MMBtu, up 4.2 cents day/day. March rose 3.5 cents to $2.561. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 18.5 cents to $2.625. Bespoke Weather Services said forecasts over the holiday weekend shifted “materially colder,” tacking on about 20 gas-weighted degree days to the outlook through mid-January. “While the 15-day period as a whole remains solidly warmer than normal, we have chipped away at a good deal of the warmth, and it is important, in our view, to note that the colder changes are focused over the next eight to 10 days,” Bespoke said. “This signals risk that models toward mid-month and beyond could again be too warm.” LNG volumes, meanwhile, hovered above 11 Bcf/d on Monday – near record levels – according to NGI data, while production levels were essentially even with a week earlier. EBW Analytics Group analysts said demand from destinations in both Europe and Asia for U.S. exports is holding strong. “With continued cold weather expected in Asia and Western Europe during the first two weeks of this year, prices at major global hubs continued to climb over the holidays and reached multi-year highs,” EBW said Monday. Demand, the analysts said, could further intensify in Europe. With “record European Union carbon prices discouraging coal use, poor performance by France’s nuclear fleet, Russian supply trailing 2019 levels and strong Asian demand diverting LNG cargoes away from Europe, European gas storage has begun to decline rapidly,” EBW said. Gas storage in Europe “could drop below five-year average levels by mid-January and end the winter several hundred Bcf below 2020 levels, buttressing injection-season demand for U.S. LNG.”
Natural Gas Futures Extend Early 2021 Gains Amid Winter Chill and Solid Export Demand - Natural gas prices spiked Tuesday, extending the gain made a day earlier to jumpstart 2021 trading, as weather models pointed to fresh bouts of cold air over the Midwest and East in the second half of January. The February Nymex gas futures contract jumped 12.1 cents day/day and settled at $2.702/MMBtu. March advanced 11.2 cents to $2.673. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed again Tuesday, rising 8.5 cents to $2.710 after advancing more than 18 cents a day earlier. Midday weather models were not as bullish as those overnight, NatGasWeather said Tuesday, but they still favored chilly patterns across the central United States and into the eastern third of the country Jan. 17-20. “With this winter again playing out much warmer than normal so far, it’s critical colder air come through,” the firm said. Should freezing winter conditions ultimately pervade January, analysts expect that underground stockpiles of natural gas could decline quickly, particularly if demand of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains elevated. LNG volumes held near 11 Bcf/d most of December, and they have remained close to that level this month amid robust export demand from destinations in Asia and Europe. EBW Analytics Group analysts said Tuesday the current gas surplus “may vanish entirely” by the storage week ending Jan. 14, “implying a tightening versus year-ago conditions of a startling 12.1 Bcf/d.” The year-over-year storage comparison has not been in a deficit since April 2019, EBW said. “It is possible that the emerging deficit may finally shock the gas market into recognizing the extent of tight underlying supply/demand balances,” the firm said. “Over the back half of winter, the storage trajectory may tighten by more than 600 Bcf versus year-ago levels.” Early 2021 advances in futures prices “are consistent with the market’s nascent recognition of long-term undersupplied conditions.” The Energy Information Administration (EIA) most recently reported a 114 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 25. That fell on the bearish side of market expectations. Ahead of the report, major surveys had clustered around a pull in the mid-120s Bcf, while NGI had forecast a draw of 124 Bcf. Total working gas in storage fell to 3,460 Bcf, but it was still 251 Bcf above year-earlier levels and 206 Bcf above the five-year average. Early estimates for the week ended Jan. 1 call for a steeper withdrawal. Bespoke Weather Services, for example, modeled a 135 Bcf pull. Potentially adding to demand early this year is the still-raging coronavirus pandemic. With virus outbreaks widespread, more people are working from home and, as a result, cranking their gas-fired furnaces more hours of the day and fueling residential demand.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage decline 130 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US natural gas in storage fell by 130 Bcf last week, with an even larger draw likely for the week in progress due to continued strong LNG export demand coupled with production losses in Texas. Henry Hub futures remain stagnant, however, as the storage surplus looks to expand in the weeks ahead. Storage inventories decreased to 3.330 Tcf for the week ended Jan. 1, the US Energy Information Administration reported Jan. 7. The withdrawal was less than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 139 Bcf pull. Responses to the survey ranged from a 121 to 157 Bcf withdrawal. The pull was much stronger than the 48 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 115 Bcf, according to EIA data. The draw also proved stronger than the 114 Bcf pull reported for the week prior. Gas prices were bid up this week heading into the EIA storage report as both the European and American ensemble weather models gained heating degree days for January compared with last week. In focus is the weakening of the polar vortex and the potential for a colder base state in the back half of the month. The NYMEX Henry Hub February contract slipped 4 cents to $2.68/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report at 10:30 am ET. US supply and demand balances were tighter as HDDs increased 10% week on week. Colder weather pushed residential and commercial demand 4.1 Bcf/d higher week on week – leading to a 3.9 Bcf/d increase in total US demand relative to the prior week, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Higher demand was met with flat total supply, increasing the call on storage to balance. Storage volumes now stand 138 Bcf, or 4.3%, more than the year-ago level of 3.192 Tcf and 201 Bcf, or 6.4%, more than the five-year average of 3.129 Tcf. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 139 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 8, which would increase the surplus to the five-year average by 22 Bcf. The week in progress has seen balances loosen as milder weather pushed residential and commercial demand 3.8 Bcf/d lower week on week – leading to US demand declines of 2.5 Bcf/d. Lower demand was met with higher total supply gains of 600 MMcf/d week on week as LNG exports and net Canadian imports rose 200 and 300 MMcf/d, respectively. Sample storage withdrawals for the US retracted just 4.6% for the week in progress, dropping to 52.2 Bcf from 54.7 Bcf, according to Platts Analytics. Every region across the US, except for the Midwest, saw a reduced call on storage. The East and Pacific samples led the declines, falling by 2 and 3 Bcf, respectively, largely as a result of temperatures climbing 3 degrees Fahrenheit in both regions, dampening demand.
Warmer Weather Outlook Snaps 2021 Win Streak for Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures faltered on Friday, ending a five-day streak of positive finishes. Traders focused on a shift in weather forecasts that pointed to a potential delay in the onset of widespread freezing temperatures from early in the third full week of January to later in the month. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.700/MMBtu, down 2.9 cents day/day. March shed 3.5 cents to $2.656.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. eked out a modest gain, rising 1.5 cents to $2.780.Bespoke Weather Services said Friday its latest outlook drifted warmer than forecasts earlier in the week. “This not only has warmed up the nearer-term outlook but has delayed the attempt in the 11- to 15-day to generate a true cold air mass up in Canada,” the firm said. “The market is clearly tiring from the can getting kicked down the road. We do still think a colder period can come late month, but damage to the bull weather case is being done by virtue of this nearer-term warming, for now.”Bespoke said the latest forecast overshadowed reports of flat production and continued robust demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. LNG volumes on Friday were above 11 Bcf and near record levels for a fourth consecutive day, according to NGI data. Frigid temperatures and low domestic supplies in Asia are propelling strong demand for U.S. LNG. Markets entered January anticipating strong heating demand in January, following relatively mild conditions in December. Analysts say harsher winter temperatures in the Lower 48 are needed to complement export demand and drive steady, steep declines in gas stockpiles over the next several weeks.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 130 Bcf from storage for the week ended Jan. 1. Though substantial, it was shy of the mid-130s Bcf decrease forecast in major polls. The latest withdrawal reduced inventories to 3,330 Bcf, yet stocks remained above the year-earlier level of 3,192 Bcf and above the five-year average of 3,129 Bcf. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) estimated a roughly 2 Bcf/d oversupplied market for the period based on historical degree day correlations.
U.S. LNG exports set another record in December - U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) set a new record in December after a record-breaking November 2020, averaging 9.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates based on the shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P. U.S. LNG exports in December were more than three times higher than the reduced export levels in the summer of 2020.Several factors have contributed to higher levels of U.S. LNG exports in recent months. LNG demand increased due to colder-than-normal winter temperatures in key Asian LNG-consuming markets. Moreover, supplies of LNG decreased because of unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in Australia, Malaysia, Qatar, Norway, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. Reduction in LNG supply led to higher international natural gas and LNG prices in Asia and Europe, attracting higher volumes of flexible LNG supplies from the United States.From April to July 2020, natural gas and LNG prices in Asia and Europe have declined to all-time historical lows, which affected economic viability of flexible U.S. LNG exports and led to numerouscargo cancelations. Prices began to recover in August, and by December, prices have more than quadrupled compared to the low levels of the summer months. The JKM price benchmark (representing spot and forward LNG prices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China) averaged $10.82 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in December 2020, and the TTF—a key European price benchmark—averaged $5.80/MMBtu. By the end of December, JKM prices continued to increase and reached $15.10/MMBtu on December 31, 2020—the highest level in the last seven years, according to pricing data provided by S&P Global Platts.Since mid-October, natural gas and LNG prices in global spot and futures markets have exceeded prices in crude oil-indexed long-term LNG contracts. Although deliveries under long-term contracts (which account for 70% of global LNG trade) have been increasing since September 2020, supply shortages caused by unplanned outages at various LNG export facilities worldwide reduced contractual export volumes. Higher global prices and reduced exports under term contracts resulted in higher export volumes of flexible LNG, particularly from the United States. The majority of U.S. LNG export contracts do not have fixed destinations in contractual clauses, allowing exporters of U.S. LNG to ship it on a spot and short-term basis to the highest-priced markets worldwide. Since June 2020, more than 50% of U.S. LNG exports went to countries in Asia, about 30% to countries in Europe, and the remaining volumes to countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s LNG Reports and EIA’s data for November 2020. EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to remain at record-high levels this winter. In the December 2020 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that U.S. LNG exports will average 9.5 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2021 and 8.5 Bcf/d on an annual basis this year, a 30% increase from 2020.
DOE Continues Push, Extends Another Five LNG Export Licenses - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has extended another five long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses through 2050 in a last minute push by the Trump administration to execute on a policy change it implemented last year. “The Trump Administration and DOE have delivered on our commitment to ensure that U.S. LNG holds a prominent place in the global energy market,” said DOE Secretary Dan Brouillette. “The 2050 policy and subsequent extended authorizations lock in the long-term benefits of U.S. LNG exports and provide yet another way to support the success of U.S. LNG exporters abroad.”The authorizations issued on New Year’s Eve extend the export terms of Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Elba Island LNG terminal operating in Georgia and the Cameron LNG facility operating in Louisiana. DOE also extended the export terms of the proposed 6.5 million metric tons/year Annova LNG project under development on the Brownsville Ship Channel in Texas and two small-scale liquefaction terminals in Florida. Eagle LNG Partners currently operates one of those plants just outside Jacksonville and has proposed another for Jacksonville. The approvals extend each project’s long-term LNG export authorizations to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries through Dec. 3, 2050.In an effort to strengthen and promote natural gas exports, the Trump administration in July extended export authorizations to non-FTA countries through 2050. From 2011 until the policy change was implemented in July, the DOE limited such licenses to 20 years. Last month, the department extended seven long-term LNG export licenses after completing another 10 extensions in October.
Permian Basin natural gas pipeline goes into service, connects to markets on Gulf Coast » Albuquerque Journal –= A major pipeline to transport natural gas out of the Permian Basin to market went into service at the start of 2021, as the fossil fuel markets continued to show gradual signs of recovery from an historic collapse last spring created by the COVID-19 health crisis.The Permian Highway Pipeline, owned by Kinder Morgan, went into full service on Jan. 1, delivering natural gas from the Waha Hub on the Texas side of the Permian to Katy, Texas near Houston with connections to the refinery and export markets on the Gulf Coast.The pipeline was in operation for several weeks ahead of full commercial service while capacity was being commissioned by shippers.More: Hearings begin on New Mexico’s proposed oil and gas methane venting and flaring rulesADVERTISEMENTSKIPFully subscribed, the Permian Highway Pipeline brought about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of transport capacity for natural gas, which could improve takeaway in the region – known as one the U.S.’ and the world’s most prolific shale plays – and see a reduction in releasing excess gas through venting or flaring.Kinder Morga Natural Gas Midstream President Sital Mody said the project’s completion would provide an economic boon for Texas and the Permian Basin region which straddles West Texas and southeast New Mexico, as the basin continues to provide vast fossil fuel resources in the coming decades.“We are extremely pleased to have placed (the Permian Highway Pipeline) in service. We are very proud of our team’s ability to execute and that we were able to complete this critical infrastructure project in the midst of a global pandemic,” Mody said.“(Permian Highway Pipeline) will continue to provide environmental benefits and economic value to the State of Texas for many years to come.”More: New Mexico oil and gas industry condemns Deb Haaland nomination as secretary of interiorHe said once the COVID-19 health crisis subsides and the fossil fuel market stabilizes, the pipeline will allow the company and other operators to capitalize on any future booms in production.“We believe that the Permian Basin will remain an important supply basin for decades, and our strong network of pipelines provides the ability to connect this supply to critical markets along the Gulf Coast,” Mody said.\
Permian Highway Pipeline Commences Full Commercial In-Service to Gulf Coast -Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) on Monday announced that the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) began full commercial in-service on Jan. 1, delivering natural gas from the Waha in West Texas to the Katy area near Houston, with connections to the Gulf Coast and Mexico markets.The pipeline, which has multiple ownership interests but is operated by KMI subsidiary Kinder Morgan Texas Pipeline (KMTP), is fully subscribed under long-term contracts. KMI said PHP provides approximately 2.1 Bcf/d of natural gas capacity, helping to reduce gas flaring in the Permian Basin.The new pipeline had been flowing volumes during the commissioning process for several weeks prior to full commercial in-service, KMI said. “We believe that the Permian Basin will remain an important supply basin for decades, and our strong network of pipelines provides the ability to connect this supply to critical markets along the Gulf Coast.” In addition to EagleClaw, shippers include Apache Corp. and XTO Energy Inc., a subsidiary of ExxonMobil Corp. The pipeline is Kinder’s second out of the Permian. Gulf Coast Express went into service in September 2019. Kinder was planning a third Permian pipeline, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, but the pandemic-induced oil market collapse of 2020 delayed those plans. RBN Energy LLC analysts, however, have noted that by late 2020 Permian production had generally recovered from the depths reached last summer.
Crude Exports Begin from Second Deepwater Dock at South Texas Gateway Terminal - Crude oil exports have begun from the second deepwater dock at the South Texas Gateway (STG) terminal, according to Buckeye Partners LP, the terminal’s 50% owner. With the second dock now complete, STG can accommodate the simultaneous berthing and loading of two very large crude carrier (VLCC) vessels, Buckeye said last Wednesday. STG is in Ingleside, at the mouth of the Corpus Christi Ship Channel in South Texas. Subsidiaries of Phillips 66 Partners LP and Marathon Petroleum Corp. each hold 25% stakes in STG. The terminal’s marine facilities are now fully operational, with construction of storage facilities set to conclude by the end of March, Buckeye said. Once fully operational, STG would boast 8.6 million bbl of petroleum products storage capacity, with the potential to expand to 10 million bbl. CEO Sean Strawbridge of the Port of Corpus Christi, added, “As Texas moves into the next phase of economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, partnerships like those between the Port of Corpus Christi and its customers such as STG are critical to the continuance of American leadership in the global energy marketplace.” U.S. petroleum exports averaged 3.63 million b/d for the week ended Dec. 25, up from 3.1 million b/d in the previous week, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report. However, the figure was down from 4.46 million b/d in the comparable week a year ago. Rystad Energy is forecasting that the global crude oil market will remain oversupplied through April 2021, before swinging to a supply deficit the following month as the Covid-19 vaccine is distributed and pandemic restrictions are eased.
Double E Natural Gas Pipeline Wants OK to Construct 1.35 Bcf/d Permian-to-Gulf Coast Conduit - Natural Gas Intelligence The owners of the Double E natural gas pipeline have asked federal regulators for permission to begin construction on the 135-mile Permian Basin conduit.In a Monday filing, Double E Pipeline LLC asked FERC to approve the start of construction by Friday. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionauthorized the pipeline in October.Project backer Summit Midstream Partners LP sanctioned Double E in June 2019, with an eye on moving 1.35 Bcf/d from the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin to the Waha hub in West Texas and beyond.The midstreamer moved forward with the project after securing “sufficient” binding commitments for long-term, firm transportation service. Summit Permian Transmission LLC held an open season for Double E in 2018 to test support for service to various receipt points in New Mexico’s Eddy and Lea counties and the West Texas counties of Loving, Ward, Reeves and Pecos. From Waha, the system plans to connect with “multiple current and planned takeaway pipelines” to demand centers south, according to Summit. It also secured a joint venture (JV) agreement with ExxonMobil, an anchor shipper on the project with a 30% stake in the project. ExxonMobil’s XTO Energy Inc. and Summit teamed up in 2017 to develop and operate an associated gas gathering and processing system to serve Permian operators in New Mexico. Double E would be among a handful of other pipeline projects aimed at transporting supply out of the once-constrained Permian. Kinder Morgan Inc. brought the Gulf Coast Express pipeline into service in September 2019 and the Permian Highway Pipeline online Jan. 1. The 2 Bcf/d Whistler project, backed by MPLX LP, WhiteWater Midstream and a JV between Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners and West Texas Gas Inc., would be the third greenfield project out of the basin when it comes online in the summer. Meanwhile, once a heavily constrained market, the Permian now has spare capacity, and Double E’s in-service would add to the competition among pipelines vying for molecules.
185 Texas workers laid off from metal supplier - Boomerang Tube LLC has laid off 185 workers at its plant in Liberty, Texas, according to a notice sent to state officials Thursday. The company, a maker and shipper of pipes and tubing for oil and natural gas companies, said, “Boomerang does not know if this layoff will exceed six months or otherwise result in an ‘employment loss’ as defined by the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.” Chesterfield, Missouri-based Boomerang Tube’s manufacturing operations are located at plants in Houston and Liberty. Before the layoffs, the company employed more than 340 people at the two Texas plants, including more than 235 in Liberty. Boomerang in Liberty laid off 50 salaried employees and 135 hourly workers. Liberty is located about 40 miles northeast of Houston.
US oil, gas rig count slips by 1 to 406; Permian posts 6-rig loss — The US oil and gas rig count slipped by one to 406 in the week week ending Jan. 6, rig data provider Enverus said, with the Permian Basin posting a six-rig loss in the biggest change of all major basins. As industry looks forward to a more stable year following a 2020 thrashed by the pandemic and low crude prices, rigs in the Permian of West Texas/New Mexico fell to 176 to start 2021, dialing activity back to month-ago levels. Still, Permian activity rose in December to average 181 rigs, besting the November average of 165, even with holiday fallbacks in the basin's rig count. "The Permian dropping a few rigs this week isn't going to shift the scale of [the basin's] production," said analyst Andrew Cooper of S&P Global Platts Analytics. "However, over the past few weeks their recovery has slowed, which might be hinting at a trend possibly developing. "With price-to-drilling lag time at something like eight weeks—the price goes up, rigs usually take one to three months to react—it will be interesting to see what $50/b WTI does for West Texas operators, but we won't see a response likely until February or March." WTI was $50.60/b Jan. 6, up $2.20 on the week, according to S&P Global Platts data, crossing the $50/b threshold for the first time since February 2020. WTI Midland was $52/b, and Bakken Composite was $47.70/b, both up $2.50 on the week. Gas prices averaged $2.70/MMBtu at Henry Hub and $2.30/MMBtu at Dominion South on Jan. 6, each up 30 cents on the week, Platts data shows. US upstream operators' rig fleets held pretty steady in the past week, with just a few gaining or losing a rig. Much-watched ExxonMobil gained one rig this week, for a total of 12, after steadily shedding rigs for months in 2020 as the pandemic's impacts worsened. The major had as many as 70 rigs running in January 2020.
US oil, gas rigs fall six to 407, ending 2020 50% lower year on year: Enverus - The US oil and gas rig count fell by six to 407 in the week ended Dec. 30 as 2020 ended with activity down slightly more than 50% from the prior-year point, rig data provider Enverus said. Total oil rigs dropped by seven to 293 on the week, while total gas rigs rose by one to 114. The number of horizontal rigs, which generally indicate high-producing shale/unconventional formations, was up by five to 335. At end-2019, before the pandemic set in, 840 rigs were operating in the US. But even as rig activity ended 2020 at a much lower level than where it began, total oil and gas rigs were up 30% in Q4 from Q3. The industry’s confidence has been buoyed with new vaccines against the coronavirus pandemic beginning to be distributed. The current week’s drop in rigs, which followed a decrease of one rig in the prior week, comes after what was otherwise a streak of weekly adds that began in October at a time when US operators, concerned about their output targets, began boosting activity. Consequently, the current decreases may just be seasonal noise, according to analyst Andrew Cooper of S&P Global Platts Analytics. In fact, Platts Analytics sees the rig count rising in 2021 to around 630 by December 2021, Cooper said. In fact, Platts Analytics sees the shale rig count, which currently averages about 410 and excludes conventional rigs, rising in 2021 to around 630 by December. Other analysts generally agree that the direction is up for not only total rigs but horizontals. “Looking ahead to 2021, our initial outlook calls for roughly 400 horizontal rigs working by the end of the year versus [335] horizontal rigs which are active today,” investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt said in a Dec. 28 investor note. In response to the pandemic, upstream operators reined in activity, cutting back drilling rigs and slashing capital spending. As a result, the 836 US oil and gas working across the US at the start of 2020 dropped sharply starting in March as the pandemic’s impact began to be felt in the form of plummeting crude demand and oil prices. Oil prices especially have recovered from March, when levels in the high $40s/b plunged to half that level by the end of month and later to the $20s/b and teens. For the week ended Dec. 30, WTI averaged $48.03/b, up a penny on week; while WTI Midland averaged $49.07/b, up 14 cents; and the Bakken Composite price averaged $44.86/b, up 10 cents, according to S&P Global Platts.
Permian, Marcellus Totals on Rise as US Rig Count Surges - Amid large gains in the Permian Basin and the Marcellus Shale, the U.S. rig count surged 9 units higher to 360 for the period ending Friday (Jan. 8), according to the latest weekly numbers published Friday by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). shale rigs Jan 8 The rise in domestic drilling included an increase of eight oil-directed rigs, along with one natural gas-directed unit. The combined U.S. count ended the week 421 rigs behind the 781 rigs active a year ago, according to the BKR numbers, which are based on data provided in part by Enverus. Land drilling increased by nine rigs week/week, while the Gulf of Mexico held steady at 17 rigs, down from 21 a year ago. Horizontal units increased by seven, while one directional unit and one vertical unit were also added. The Canadian rig count surged 58 units higher to 117 for the week, still lagging the 203 rigs active at this time last year. Gains included 35 oil-directed units and 23 gas-directed. The combined North American rig count ended the week at 477, versus 984 in the year-ago period. Broken down by major play, the Permian added four rigs to grow its total to 179, versus 397 a year ago. The Marcellus also posted a net increase of four rigs, upping its total to 30, versus 41 a year ago. Also among plays, the Cana Woodford added one rig for the week, while the Utica Shale dropped two rigs and the Granite Wash declined by one. Among states, New Mexico led with an increase of four rigs on the week, while Pennsylvania added two and Alaska, California, Oklahoma and West Virginia each added one. Ohio posted a net decrease of one rig for the period, BKR data show. News from Saudi Arabia early in the week provided oil markets with an injection of optimism, as the leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries revealed plans to cut oil production by 1 million b/d in February and March. “If there is one way to describe what its voluntary cut means for the market, ‘happy hour’ is a pretty fitting term,” Still, U.S. energy executives remain wary about the outlook for the oil and natural gas markets this year, and are relying on moderate commodity prices as they finesse their 2021 capital spending plans, according to the latest quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
U.S. crude stockpiles tumble last week; 2020 fuel demand slumps - EIA (Reuters) -U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell sharply last week while fuel inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, and 2020 came to a close with a sharp decline in overall demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Fuel demand was impaired as well. Overall motor gasoline product supplied, a proxy for demand, dropped by 8.5% to 7.4 million bpd. Overall product supplied fell 12% on the year, and jet fuel consumption slumped by 43%. “The story for the next several months will be how quickly demand will recover in light of the vaccine rollout,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels last week, the biggest increase since April, the EIA said, ahead of expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel rise. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 6.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 2.3 million-barrel rise. Refinery crude runs rose by 89,000 bpd in the week, with utilization rates up 1.3 percentage points to 80.7% of capacity, their highest since August. “We’ve burned through a lot of crude oil to make a lot of product, and there’s no demand for the product,”
Canada pressing Michigan to avert shutdown of pipeline critical to fuel needs in Ontario and Quebec - The Canadian Chamber of Commerce warns of significant disruption to fuel supplies to Canada’s two most populous provinces if the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline ceases operation this spring. Line 5 carries petroleum from Western Canada through Great Lakes states to Ontario, where much of the crude is turned into gasoline and other fuels before the remainder is shipped via the Line 9 pipeline to Quebec refineries. In November, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, citing the risk of an oil spill, announced she would revoke an easement granted in 1953 that allows Line 5 to cross the Straits of Mackinac, a waterway in her state. “This has got very serious ramifications,” Joe Comartin, the Canadian government’s consul-general in Detroit, said in an interview. He noted the pipeline’s waterway crossing received a “clean bill of health” from the U.S. Department of Transport’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration last year. Aaron Henry, senior director of natural resources and sustainability at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, this country’s biggest business lobby group, said the fate of Line 5 “needs to be on the table” in conversations between the Canadian government and the incoming U.S. administration of president-elect Joe Biden. He said consumers in Ontario and Quebec would “see an increase at the gas pumps” if the shutdown persists. Without this pipeline, Ontario would be about 45-per-cent short of the crude oil it requires, according to Enbridge Inc. Line 5′s supply is used, among other things, to produce gasoline and diesel for Ontario as well as 100 per cent of the jet fuel used at Pearson International Airport. The pipeline from Michigan is also a critical source of supply for the Line 9 pipeline that runs from Ontario to Quebec and provides 40 per cent to 50 per cent of the crude oil that is used by Quebec refineries to make gasoline and other fuels. Mr. Henry said a shutdown could cause significant layoffs of refinery jobs in Sarnia, Ont., and would also be a blow to Western Canadian crude producers. “It would not only hurt Alberta, but Saskatchewan would find it very challenging to transport its crude.” Analysts say a shutdown would force Ontario and Quebec to find other sources of crude oil for refining and import this petroleum by rail or truck or ship – a potentially more dangerous and environmentally damaging method of transport.
Ojibwe bands ask for halt on Line 3 construction --The Red Lake and White Earth Bands of Ojibwe have asked the Minnesota Court of Appeals to pause the ongoing construction of the Line 3 oil pipeline replacement project until lawsuits challenging the project’s approval can be heard. The bands, along with several nonprofit groups and the Minnesota Department of Commerce, have filed lawsuits challenging the project in \both federal and state court. But construction has already begun in earnest on the pipeline, which stretches for more than 300 miles across northern Minnesota. More than 3,000 people from around the country are currently working on the project, with another thousand expected to join them soon. The tribes argue that if a stay is not granted to temporarily stop construction, then their lawsuits will be “pointless and moot,” because they anticipate that the state appeals court would not issue a final order on their legal challenges until July 2021. At that point, construction on Line 3 would likely be largely completed. Enbridge began work on the pipeline on Dec. 1, and has said it anticipates that construction will take six to nine months. Even if pipeline opponents prevailed in court, and state utility regulators were required to hold additional proceedings on the merits of the project, “the outcome of new hearings to determine the need for the pipeline, or to properly analyze its environmental effects before selection of a route, would have no practical purpose,” the tribes say in their brief to the court. The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission approved Line 3 — for a second time — earlier this year, when it approved a revised environmental analysis of the pipeline’s impacts, and granted the project a Certificate of Need and route permit. . Earlier this month the PUC rejected a similar request from project opponents for a construction stay, concluding that “the risks of continuing to transport oil through existing Line 3 are greater than those caused by construction and operation of the project.” The current pipeline is corroding and requires extensive maintenance. Enbridge has argued — and regulators have agreed — that it’s safer for the environment, and will reduce the risk of potential oil spills, to replace the pipeline with a new pipe along a different route across northern Minnesota. The new pipeline will also allow Enbridge to nearly double the amount of oil it currently transports through Line 3. But opponents argue the project exposes new areas of water-rich northern Minnesota to risks of an oil spill, and also would greatly exacerbate the impacts of climate change by transporting nearly 800,000 barrels of heavy Canadian oil every day to refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. The Red Lake and White Earth bands argue that construction of Line 3 would destroy their “treaty-protected interest” in the land, waters, plants and animals, as well as their “cultural and religious rights.”
Forest Service finalizes grassland oil leasing plan; conservationists raise concerns - The U.S. Forest Service has finalized a plan designating where oil wells can be built within 845,000 acres of the Little Missouri National Grassland, a broad swath of western North Dakota that encompasses much of the Badlands. The plan offers protections for sage grouse, rare plants and bighorn sheep during lambing season, but conservationists are frustrated by a provision allowing oil wells near roads in certain pristine areas. The decision and accompanying Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement were released earlier this month and apply to land where the federal government owns both the surface and mineral rights. Those parcels are a patchwork, intermixed with state and private land where the new provisions do not apply. “What prompted this process was the recognition of changes in the pace and type of oil and gas development here in North Dakota,” Grasslands Supervisor Bennie South said. “It’s an attempt to try to balance being productive with the resources we have but sustaining those resources and grasslands for the American people so the people can come out and enjoy those lands.” The supplemental EIS process took place over the course of eight years, after horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing ushered in the Bakken oil boom more than a decade ago. The Forest Service and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management both play a role in oil leasing. Conservationists say they were surprised by a provision that emerged this past summer in the EIS allowing for oil well pads within a quarter-mile of existing roads in what are known as “inventoried roadless areas” where new roads generally cannot be built. “It obviously got me riled up, and it’s gotten a lot of people riled up,” said Dave Pieper, a former grasslands supervisor who retired in 2011 after a lengthy career in the Forest Service. Some of that land, he said, “is the best of what’s left, and there’s not much left.” Badlands Conservation Alliance members often camp, hunt and bird watch in the grassland. “A lot of our members really appreciate the remoteness and natural beauty and being able to get away,” Executive Director Elizabeth Loos said. “Being able to get away from oil and gas is important to members.”“We go all over and it’s not a great experience when you’re camping and you hear a pump jack all night,”
My tribe holds a funeral every week for people killed by fossil fuels. This isn’t progress – it’s environmental genocide - My grandfather was eight years old when he was walked at the point of a bayonet from South Dakota with his parents and grandparents. Hundreds of tribes were forced to walk along many “Trails of Tears” nationwide. Millions did not survive the journey, but the devastation of spirit and culture remains part of our genetic memory. So too, does our ancestral knowledge of living in balance with the Earth and philosophy of caring for the next seven generations to come. Fast forward to today. The “Land Back” movement is gaining mainstream recognition, and racist statues and sports team names are disappearing. Amid this progress, however, the Trump administration, state governments and the fossil fuel industry are attempting the largest Indigenous land grab since the 1830 Indian Removal Act. On top of this, the climate clock is running out as Americans continue to reel under the continuing saga of the election and rising deaths from Covid-19. Under the cover of pandemic and anxious for a last gasp, the fossil fuel industry is striking deals for control of Indigenous lands with the outgoing Trump administration, and his GOP allies in Congress. From the Arctic refuge to the Bayou, it is nothing new to Native peoples that so much oil and gas activities are placed on or near tribal land, contaminating soil, rivers, aquifers and air while adding to the climate crisis and directly impacting community health. We are considered “sacrifice communities”.Oklahoma has become a fossil-fuel dependent state. Today it is home to the world's largest convergence of aging oil and gas pipelines and thousands of manmade earthquakes owing to fracking. In my small Ponca tribe, we hold a funeral nearly every week from fossil fuel-related illnesses. All our families have multiple cases of asthma, cardiovascular disease and industry-specific cancers. Our wells are so polluted our tribe must now buy water. Our land is so toxic, organic food can’t be grown within 16 miles. They call it economic progress. We call it environmental genocide.
Multiple tribes protest drilling of 5,000 oil and gas wells in Wyoming - A landmark decision delivered by the Trump administration late last month gives five oil and gas companies the green light to forge ahead in drilling 5,000 wells over the next decade in northeastern Wyoming. Though cheered by state officials and industry groups, leaders of several tribal nations with enduring ties to the land remain concerned the development will compromise air and water quality, violate existing treaty rights and destroy cultural resources. The Oglala Sioux Tribe maintains that U.S. regulators “failed their duty” to uphold federal law and properly consult with tribes, calling the environmental reviews associated with the project “deficient,” according to recent protests. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management issued a final record of decision for the Converse County oil and gas project on Dec. 23. The order followed the BLM’s completion of a roughly seven-year environmental analysis and allows for year-round drilling on federal leases in Converse County. Yet, the southern Powder River Basin carries significant meaning for over a dozen tribes with extensive history in the region. The colonization of the area by white settlers displaced Indigenous people onto reservations in the 19th century, severing them from their land. But cultural resources and sacred sites in the region remain. Multiple treaties also grant tribes rights to the land. Rivers within the project area serve as an important water source for the Oglala Sioux Tribe, among other tribes of the Sioux Nation. Many tribal members said they fear the worst for the land, headwaters and cultural history in the region if drilling occurs at the scale proposed by the team of operators. The BLM's record of decision approves the construction of up to 5,000 oil and natural gas wells, 1,500 multi-well pads and hundreds of miles of gas and water pipelines, along with roads, electrical lines and other infrastructure on federal leases in the Powder River Basin. The operator group plans to use a variety of drilling techniques within the 1.5 million acre project area, cutting through federal, state and private minerals. About 53,000 acres, or 3.5% of the total area, are expected to sustain surface disturbance. Wyoming lawmakers have expressed sustained and ardent support for the Converse County oil and gas project. It promises to bring up to 8,000 jobs and $18 billion to $28 billion in state and federal revenue, at a time when Wyoming’s fiscal outlook is dark.
TC Energy launches open season to add 80,000 b/d to base Keystone system in 2023 — TC Energy said Jan. 6 it is launching an open season to add 80,000 b/d of crude capacity to the existing Keystone Pipeline system no sooner than 2023. TC Energy, which already plans to add 50,000 b/d of capacity to Keystone this year, would then initiate the extra contracts and volumes in 2023 to coincide with the planned completion of the Keystone XL Pipeline. If President-elect Joe Biden rejects the Keystone XL project as promised, TC Energy could still add the 80,000 b/d to the existing pipeline system in 2023 or beyond, or simply cancel the expansion. TC Energy said it wants to replenish the existing Keystone pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta, to Pakota, Illinois, once volumes are switched over to the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline. But this approach would still allow for some capacity expansion even if the Keystone XL project is killed or, at least, delayed until after the Biden presidency. Last year, outgoing President Donald Trump issued a permit to allow the existing Keystone system to expand its capacity from the current 590,000 b/d of heavy Canadian crude oil up to 760,000 b/d. At some point in 2021, TC Energy plans to up the capacity to 640,000 b/d, and the addition of another 80,000 b/d would eventually bring the system to 720,000 b/d even without Keystone XL. If it is not canceled, the $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline project would move up to 830,000 b/d of heavy Canadian crude ultimately to Texas through the entire Keystone system. The 1,200-mile XL pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska would connect to the existing Keystone system. With the cancelation of Keystone XL the most likely scenario under Biden, the new open season appears to be a reaction to low crude oil demand in the current environment and the optimism that crude consumption should rise after 2023, said Sandy Fielden, director of oil research at Morningstar. Keystone XL is also competing with Enbridge's Line 3 replacement project, which is slated for completion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The $6.75 billion Line 3 project would increase crude pipeline capacity from 370,000 b/d now up to 760,000 b/d as it moves Canadian crude from Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin. The pipeline runs more than 1,000 miles, including its largest 337-mile segment in Minnesota. The competing pipelines are key pending projects that would serve as larger arteries to move more heavy crude oil from Canada to Midwestern US and, ultimately, to the major refining corridor along the US Gulf Coast.
The 'Revolutionary' Fight Over California's Hidden Oil and Gas Wells - At the corner of West Pico Blvd. and South Genesee Ave. in west Los Angeles sits a tan, six-story building. It’s nothing much to look at: It’s set back from the street by a manicured lawn, lined by a row of trees on each side. An American flag flies out front.At a quick glance, it appears no different from any other office building; it looks like it could be home to medical practitioners, accounting firms, or insurance agencies. But sit outside of it for long enough, and you won’t spot many white collar workers coming in or out. Nor would you catch glance of any workers through office windows. That’s because the windows on this building are fake. In fact, the whole building is a facade; its top is open and inside of it is an active oil well site operated by Freeport-McRoran that produces thousands of barrels of oil per year.The Packard Drill Site is one of a number of locations throughout the city where oil and gas wells sit immediately next door to homes and offices,hidden in plain sight from Angelenos. The city is home to an estimated 1,071 urban oil wells that operate in relative secrecy behind tall fences or other clandestine structures, though only a handful are concealed from public viewas elaborately as the Packard Drill Site. Just more than 70% of them sit mere feet from hospitals, daycare centers, schools, or homes. All told, an estimated 580,000 Los Angeles County residents live less than a quarter of a mile from a drill site. Many of these structures are difficult for the average person to recognize if they’re not looking, and Niki Wong, founding member of the Standing Together Against Neighborhood Drilling – Los Angeles (STAND-LA) coalition, said she believes this is intentional on the part of the oil and gas industry.“People really don’t know,” Wong said. “Either people know about it because they’ve lived there long enough, and they can’t afford to leave. There are lots of people I also meet who have lived there for years, but had no idea [something] was a drilling site because of its immaculately manicured lawn.”As the health impacts from oil and gas drilling become clearer, the push to disclose drilling sites, set up wider buffer zones, and ultimately, shut them down has gained urgency. Los Angeles—and California at-large—is one of the epicenters of a growing movement to protect public health from the oil fields lurking in people’s backyards.
Oil and gas dealmaking peaks in Q4 as pandemic spurs consolidation - Enervus (Reuters) - Deal making among oil and gas producers was at its highest for the year in the fourth quarter of 2020 as the pandemic-driven fallout in commodity prices spurred a wave of consolidation between explorers looking to scale up and drive down costs, a report from analytics firm Enverus said. Oil and gas producers made deals worth $27.1 billion in the quarter, up from $21 billion in the third, helped by three multi-billion dollar acquisitions in the prolific Permian basin of West Texas and New Mexico. ConocoPhillips acquired Concho Resources for $13.3 billion, the biggest pure shale acquisition by any company since 2011, topping the list. It was followed by Pioneer Natural Resources’ deal to buy Parsley Energy for $7.6 billion.Diamondback Energy also took over publicly-traded QEP Resources and private equity-backed Guidon Operating for just over $3 billion. Data from Enervus also showed deal flow, or the number of deals announced, was only 140 in 2020. It was the lowest since at least 2006, as a number of buyers focused on preserving cash to pay down debt or returning capital to shareholders. According to Enervus, corporate consolidation, especially among small and mid-size companies that require scale, and non-core asset divestments could be seen in 2021. Companies that went through a Chapter 11 restructuring in 2020 could also emerge as potential merger partners now that debt loads are right-sized, Enervus added.
Exxon, under investor pressure, discloses emissions from burning its fuels (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp, under increasing pressure from investors and climate change activists, reported for the first time the emissions that result when customers use its products such as gasoline and jet fuel.The largest U.S. oil producer said the emissions from its product sales in 2019 were equivalent to 730 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, higher than rival oil majors. The data comes as the company has drawn the ire of an activist investor focused on its climate performance.The so-called Scope 3 data is included in its latest Energy & Carbon Summary released Tuesday, though Exxon downplayed its significance. "Scope 3 emissions do not provide meaningful insight into the Company's emission-reduction performance," the report said. (Report: exxonmobil.co/3hL6Tmo) “Even to get to the point of having them disclose this has been like pulling teeth,” said Andrew Grant at think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative. “Quite a lot of the rest of the world has moved on from the disclosure to ‘What are we going to do about this?’”Most major oil companies already report Scope 3 emissions and some have reduction targets, including Occidental Petroleum, which in November set a goal to offset the impact of the use of its oil and gas by 2050.Exxon said it made the disclosure due to investor interest.
Last-minute White House decision opens more Arctic land to oil leasing (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced on Monday that it has made final its plan to open up vast areas of once-protected Arctic Alaska territory to oil development. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management released its plan for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A), a 23 million-acre swath of land on the western North Slope. The record, signed by Interior Secretary David Bernhardt on Dec. 21, allows lease sales to proceed under relaxed standards. The decision is one of a number of pro-drilling actions taken by the Trump administration in its final days. On Wednesday, the bureau is scheduled to auction off drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on the eastern North Slope. The plan allows oil development on about 80 percent of the reserve. Under Obama-era rules, about half of the reserve was available for leasing, with the other half protected for environmental and indigenous reasons. The Trump plan allows leasing in vast Teshekpuk Lake, the largest lake in Arctic Alaska and a haven for migrating birds and wildlife. Teshekpuk Lake has been off-limits to leasing since the Reagan administration. “We are expanding access to our nation’s great energy potential and providing for economic opportunities and job creation for both Alaska Natives and our nation,” said Casey Hammond, principal deputy secretary for the Department of the Interior. It is unclear whether making this acreage available will boost Alaskan oil production, which peaked more than 30 years ago at 2 million barrels per day. The state now produces roughly 500,000 bpd of crude. The NPR-A decision got a swift response from environmentalists who have already sued to overturn the plan. “On its way out the door, this administration is sticking to its blunt and destructive approach to management solely for oil development,” said David Krause, assistant Alaska director for The Wilderness Society, in a statement.
'Biggest Threat Yet' to Arctic Refuge as Trump Readies Last-Minute Lease Sale --"The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge faces its biggest threat yet." That's the warning issued by the National Audubon Society on Tuesday — a day before the Trump administration is set to sell oil and gas leasing rights in the refuge's coastal plain, a biodiversity hotspot of critical importance to the Gwich'in people and dubbed America's Serengeti. Bids were submitted by the end of 2020. It's not clear, however, which oil or gas companies, if any, sought leases.The Bureau of Land Management has "received interest" in leases, the Anchorage Daily News reported. That interest may have come solely from the state-owned Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, which voted unanimously last month to spend as much as $20 million on the leases. "It's a way for the state to make sure the land is set aside for oil development in case no one else bids on the leases," as Alaska Publicput it. Wednesday's virtual lease sale, according to NPR, represents: a major moment in a 40-year fight over whether to develop the northernmost slice of the refuge's coastal plain, home to migrating caribou, birds, and polar bears. [President-elect Joe] Biden, as well as his pick for Interior Secretary—Rep. Deb Haaland—oppose drilling in the refuge. The hand-off of drilling rights to the highest bidders could make it more difficult to reverse course. That makes a pending decision from a federal judge in Alaska, which could come Tuesday, even more crucial to foil the lease sales and seismic activity related to fossil fuel plans. U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason in Anchorage on Monday heard oral arguments in the case, brought forth by Audubon and other conservation groups, as ADN reported. According to the outlet, "Gleason said she'd try to issue a decision by 'close of business' on Tuesday, on the eve of the live-streamed lease sale, set for 10 a.m. Wednesday." Andy McGlashen, associate editor of Audubon Magazine, put this week's events in the broader context of the climate crisis. In a Monday post, he wrote: The coastal plain between the Brooks Range and the Beaufort Sea is a wild expanse of tundra that each year hosts millions of migratory birds from six continents. It's where the Porcupine caribou herd, one of the continent's largest, migrates each spring to birth calves. Polar bears den in the snow and ice along the coast and river edges, while muskoxen, wolves, and other wildlife roam the rolling plain. It's also, like the rest of the Arctic, a region changing fast as the planet warms due to fossil-fuel combustion. "We shouldn't be exploring drilling anywhere," says Martha Raynolds, an arctic plant ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). "And the last place on Earth that the U.S. should be exploring drilling is the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge."
Alaska court hears challenge to Arctic refuge oil leases — Attorneys for conservation groups asked a U.S. judge Monday to halt the issuance of oil and gas leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ahead of a planned sale this week. U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason said she would try to issue a decision by late Tuesday, the day before the sale that would offer tracts covering much of the refuge’s coastal plain. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has said the sale is in keeping with a 2017 law that called for at least two lease sales to be held within 10 years, a law hailed by Alaska political leaders, including the state’s Republican congressional delegation. Critics, however, say the Trump administration is trying to rush through the process in its waning days. President-elect Joe Biden has opposed drilling in the region. Gleason is weighing requests from Indigenous and other conservation groups and tribal governments that, like the case she heard Monday involving the National Audubon Society and three other groups, seek to block the issuance of leases and seismic exploration activities pending decisions on underlying lawsuits challenging the adequacy of reviews on which they are based. Kate Glover, an attorney for the plaintiffs in Monday’s case, said scars on the landscape from seismic work, impacts on research trips and overflights were among the potential harms that could be faced if an injunction were not granted. Paul Turcke, an attorney for the federal government, said any potential harms to the plaintiffs were hypothetical and speculative. Tyson Kade, an attorney for intervenors including the North Slope Borough and Native Village of Kaktovik, which support the land agency’s position, argued his clients could face economic impacts, such as loss of jobs and revenue, if lease-related activities were halted. In addition to the planned lease sale in the refuge’s coastal plain, the Trump administration also has moved to open an additional 10,937 square miles (28,326 square kilometers) for oil and gas development in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. That plan, announced Monday, was criticized by conservation groups as rushed and lacking protections, including for a productive wetland area. The Bureau of Land Management countered that its plan includes safeguards for wildlife and other resources.
U.S. judge denies effort to stop drilling auction in Arctic refuge (Reuters) - A federal judge in Alaska ruled late on Tuesday that the Trump administration’s planned auction of oil drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) could proceed as planned on Wednesday morning. The order by U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason comes after environmental groups and the indigenous people of northeastern Alaska sought a preliminary injunction to block the sale in the ecologically sensitive area. The sale is scheduled for Jan. 6, but the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) started accepting bids at the end of last month. The ruling is a victory for the President Donald Trump’s plan to deliver on an important pillar of his “energy dominance” agenda just two weeks before Democrat Joe Biden, who opposes drilling in ANWR, takes office. Four lawsuits have been filed since August challenging the plans to auction drilling rights in the potentially energy-rich coastal plain of ANWR along the Beaufort Sea. In her order, Gleason said the green and native groups had failed to establish that they would suffer irreparable harm as a result of the sale. If BLM approves “ground-disturbing activities” in ANWR before the groups’ original lawsuits are resolved, Gleason wrote, the groups could again seek a court order to block those activities. “Today’s ruling is disappointing but does nothing to change the strength of our lawsuit or our resolve,” said Bernadette Demientieff, executive director of the Gwich’in Steering Committee, a group that represents some of the indigenous people of northeastern Alaska that sued to block the auction.
Judge allows oil, gas lease sales in Alaska’s Arctic refuge (AP) — A U.S. judge on Tuesday refused to halt an oil and gas lease sale for Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge that was pushed by the Trump administration in its final days. U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason’s decision came after conservationists and Indigenous groups argued that the lease sale scheduled for Wednesday and a survey program were based on inadequate environmental reviews or outdated information. The ruling involves a region valued by conservationists for its beauty and wildlife and seen as sacred to some Indigenous people but viewed by others as a way to boost oil production and create jobs. The judge was asked to halt the sale until underlying lawsuits are resolved. But in her ruling, Gleason said the groups had not shown a likelihood of harm necessary for her to grant an injunction now and found the government had not taken final action on a survey proposal. She left open the possibility for the groups to seek a future injunction if the U.S. Bureau of Land Management approves “ground-disturbing activities” in the refuge’s coastal plain before she rules in the underlying cases. Organizations that sought to block the issuance of leases expressed disappointment with Gleason’s ruling but vowed to keep fighting. “This administration steamrolled through a disrespectful, harmful, illegal leasing plan, and we plan to stop it,” said Bernadette Demientieff, executive director of the Gwich’in Steering Committee, which was formed by Indigenous leaders who oppose drilling in the refuge. “While that didn’t happen today, that day will come.” Nicholas Goodwin, a spokesperson for the U.S. Interior Department, called the ruling “expected and unsurprising. The Department of the Interior looks forward to proceeding with appropriate dispatch to achieve the clear direction it received from Congress in 2017.”
Biden Is Urged to Ban ANWR Drilling After Court Approves Auction of Fossil Fuel Leases - President-elect Joe Biden is facing renewed pressure to deliver on his promise of a bold climate agenda after a federal judge ruled that the Trump administration could move forward with a Wednesday auction of fossil fuel drilling leases for federally protected lands in Alaska.After decades of national debate over oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), Republicans in Congress opened up the region to drilling with a provision in the so-called "tax scam" that President Donald Trump signed in 2017.Late Tuesday, U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason in Anchorage declined to issue a preliminary injunction to block the auction. The request came from environmental groups and Indigenous people who are opposed to drilling in ANWR, which is home to over 280 species.In a statement Wednesday, Mitch Jones, policy director at the advocacy group Food & Water Watch, urged Biden to prevent fossil fuel development in the refuge—and beyond—when he takes office in two weeks. The president-elect has previously said he "totally" opposes drilling in the ecologically sensitive region."Trump rushing through these lease sales as a final handout to his cronies in the oil and gas industry is outrageous, if not surprising," Jones declared. "Trump's consistent, willful ignorance of the realities of climate change has pushed our planet towards decades of increasing climate chaos." "President-elect Biden can reverse these disastrous oil and gas industry plans by keeping his promise to ban fossil fuel extraction—including fracking—on our public lands and waters," he added. "This is a step he can, and must, take upon taking office." Jones' call for Biden to intervene to protect ANWR's coastal plain came after environmental and Indigenous leaders expressed disappointment with Gleason's decision not to block the auction while also emphasizing that her ruling doesn't mark the end of their fight against drilling rights in the refuge. Four lawsuits have been filed since August challenging the lease plans, according to Reuters. The National Audubon Society and other groups had argued that the auction shouldn't go forward until the broader challenge to the drilling is resolved.The Anchorage Daily News reports that Erik Grafe, an Earthjustice attorney representing the Audubon Society, said the case "is by no means over." "The court concluded only that for now there is no harm that justifies an injunction. It also recognized that such an action could come very soon with issuance of seismic permits," he said. "We will continue to press our case that the agency approved the program unlawfully and that its decision should be overturned."
Oil company that hired Interior official won't seek ANWR acreage -An oil and gas company that hired a top Interior Department official who oversaw the push to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling says it has no plans to bid on acreage there when the Trump administration holds the first-ever lease sale in the refuge on Wednesday. That company, Oil Search Ltd., which has become one of the dominant players in Alaska's North Slope, hired DOI's assistant secretary for land and minerals management Joe Balash in September 2019. According to documents obtained by POLITICO, Balash was discussing his potential employment with the company beginning in mid-May of 2019, more than three months before he left the department. During that time DOI was wrapping up the environmental impact statement for the refuge and finalizing a new management plan for the National Petroleum Reserve, where Oil Search has a small number of existing lease holdings. Balash was intimately involved in both projects while working for the Trump administration. On May 15, 2019, Balash notified the department that he was negotiating a job with Oil Search and he signed a statement of recusal barring him from working on “particular matters” that would have a “direct and predictable effect on the financial interest” of his future employer. But more than a month passed before he sought more specific guidance on his involvement in several North Slope development projects including the NPRA, which he said would “require some additional analysis by your office.” On the ANWR lease sale Balash said it was “unknown who will bid at the sale or whether Oil Search might be interested in participating.”
Arctic refuge lease sale goes bust, as major oil companies skip out - Alaska Public Media - One of the Trump administration’s biggest energy initiatives suffered a stunning setback Wednesday, as a decades-long push to drill for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ended with a lease sale that attracted just three bidders — one of which was the state of Alaska itself. Alaska’s state-owned economic development corporation was the only bidder on nine of the tracts offered for lease in the northernmost swath of the refuge, known as the coastal plain. Two small companies also each picked up a single parcel. Half of the offered leases drew no bids at all. “They held the lease in ANWR — that is history-making. That will be recorded in the history books and people will talk about it,” said Larry Persily, a longtime observer of the oil and gas industry in Alaska. “But no one showed up.” The sale generated a tiny fraction of the revenue it was projected to raise. It was a striking moment in a 40-year fight over drilling in the coastal plain, an area that’s home to migrating caribou, polar bears, birds and other wildlife. It also potentially sits atop billions of barrels of oil, according to federal estimates. But amid a global recession, low oil prices and an aggressive pressure campaign against leasing by drilling opponents, oil analysts have for months been predicting little interest in the sale, and their forecasts were confirmed Wednesday.
China's Sinopec builds first phase of new shale gas field in Sichuan (Reuters) - China’s Sinopec Corp said on Wednesday it had completed building the first phase of a new shale gas field, Weirong, in southwestern Sichuan province with an annual production capacity of 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Weirong, located in Neijiang and Zigong cities, is the state energy giant’s second major shale gas development after Fuling, which is also located in the same Sichuan basin. With an average well depth of 3,750 meters (2.33 miles)beneath earth’s surface, Sinopec has tapped proven reserves of 124.7 bcm at the deep shale gas field. Under the first phase of development that started around late 2019, Sinopec said it had drilled 56 wells attached to eight drilling platforms. Sinopec, Asia’s biggest oil refiner, will proceed to Phase-II development that will lift Weirong’s annual output capacity to 3 bcm in 2022, or sufficient to cover 16 million households’ annual consumption of the fuel. Currently, Weirong is pumping 3.5 million cubic meters of gas a day. China’s national energy producers are ramping up natural gas supplies in recent weeks of both domestic productions and imports to meet a demand surge amid a colder-than-usual winter and robust post-pandemic manufacturing activity.
Hedge funds end 2020 with lopsided oil position: Kemp (Reuters) -Hedge funds ended 2020 with the most bullish position in oil for 11 months, anticipating coronavirus vaccines would allow consumption to return to normal by the end of 2021. Along with other money managers, hedge funds had amassed a net long position of 741 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts by Dec. 29. Positions were still down from 950 million barrels at the start of 2020, but had recovered from a low of just 280 million in March, when the first wave of the epidemic was raging and many economies were going into lockdown. Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of 5.30:1, the highest ratio since January 2020, and up from a low of 1.92:1 as recently as the start of November. In the last six years, large concentrations of hedge fund long or short positions and extreme ratios have usually preceded a reversal in the price trend. Measured in barrels and ratios, fund positions ended the year between the 73rd and 75th percentiles for all weeks since the start of 2013 (tmsnrt.rs/3nfJmet). There is still scope for the fund community to add to its bullish positioning, but the balance of risks has started to shift, with an increased threat of long liquidation or new short selling causing a temporary decline in prices. Positions appear most stretched in U.S. gasoline (73rd-75th percentile), NYMEX and ICE WTI (65-70th) and Brent (57th-74th), but less so in U.S. diesel (56th-58th) and European gasoil (59-68th). Perhaps sensing the changing balance, portfolio managers have gradually reduced the rate of oil buying in recent weeks. Funds have purchased a total of 385 million barrels over the most recent eight weeks, but the most recent week saw purchases of just 9 million barrels, the smallest addition so far. The rate of buying has been progressively slowing for the last five weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But the risks are concentrated on the downside, from a short-term resurgence of the virus, an unexpectedly slow deployment of vaccines, a lingering business cycle downturn, or a premature increase in OPEC+ output.
Oil prices expected to struggle despite Saudi cuts, but Goldman is more bullish than most - Oil markets are in for more struggles this year despite a more than 5% boost to prices this week on news from OPEC+. The oil producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced that members would keep production largely steady rather than raising it, with Riyadh later revealing voluntary cuts of an extra 1 million barrels per day from its January's production levels in February and March. Brent crude futures traded at $53.81 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, following a 5% jump on Tuesday that brought the commodity to an 11-month high. Could crude return to its pre-pandemic levels of more than $60 a barrel in 2021? Not if the outlooks of several forecasters are correct, which throw cold water on bullish hopes for a full demand recovery as Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out in countries across the world. A Reuters poll of analysts in late December showed a broad expectation that Brent will average "a smidge above $50/bbl this year," a note from PVM Oil Associates read Wednesday. "At the heart of this gloomy forecast is the key downside risk for oil prices in 2021: will the new Covid-19 strain that has triggered a flurry of fresh lockdown measures weigh on economic activity and travel demand?" In addition to pandemic-induced uncertainty, with many countries seeing increased infections and some seeing fresh lockdowns over the new and highly transmissible Covid variant, the price of crude will also depend on Saudi Arabia and Russia's willingness to remain loyal to OPEC+ supply cut agreements — disputes over which have seen united fronts collapse in the past. Despite sending prices upward, bearish forecasters chose to view the surprise Saudi production cuts for what they were: an indicator of still weakening demand. OPEC+ in December already delayed its plan to increase production by 2 million barrels per day for January. Caution remains the overwhelming sentiment among members, with Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman highlighting the need for "prudence." As noted by analytics firm Kpler: "At 3,637 mb (million barrels), global oil inventories are still 220 mb higher y/y, despite having fallen 126 mb from their highs in July 2020." Goldman Sachs also sees anemic demand in the short term. But its longer-term outlook for the rest of the year is much brighter. "Despite this bullish supply agreement (from OPEC), we believe Saudi's decision likely reflects signs of weakening demand as lockdowns return, with our updated 1Q21 balance actually weaker than previously," Goldman's energy team wrote in an analysis published Wednesday. But, they added: "Saudi's action and the prospect for a tight market in 2Q21, as the rebound in demand stresses the ability to restart production, will likely support prices in coming weeks, leading us to reiterate our bullish oil view." The bank sees oil at a robust $65 per barrel by the end of the year, recommending a long December 2021 Brent trade. "Our own year-end Brent forecast of $65/bbl is still well above market forwards and consensus expectations," the bank noted.
Oil Market Seen Swinging from Oversupply to Deficit in 2021 on Vaccine Rollout, Boosting WTI Price - The new year could see the global oil market swing from its current state of oversupply to some of the highest monthly supply deficits in years as the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines propels a recovery in demand, according to experts. Raymond James & Associates Inc. analysts said Monday they expect “hefty” crude oil inventory draws in both 2021 and 2022, “which, by definition, is bullish for prices.” The analyst team led by John Freeman and Pavel Polchanov said they expect West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to close 2021 at $65/bbl, “Which implies an average of $57 for the year (20% above the futures strip), followed by an average of $65 in 2022 (40% above the strip), with Brent at a modest premium.” They cautioned, however, that a return to pre-pandemic global oil demand above 100 million b/d will depend on widespread vaccination against Covid-19. Since vaccine distribution is in the very early stages, it remains impossible to put a precise timetable on the end of lockdowns, the Raymond James team said. “Broadly speaking, we anticipate that, after the tough wintertime period, demand recovery should resume this spring, with the second half of the year being markedly stronger than the first half,” researchers said. “While some segments of the oil market (notably aviation) are unlikely to fully recover until 2023 at the earliest, we think that overall demand will reach 100 million b/d around the middle of 2022.” The Raymond James team also noted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, aka OPEC-plus, can be expected to gradually unwind pandemic-induced production cuts as demand recovers.
Oil slides with U.S. stocks as OPEC+ delays output decision -- Oil prices slipped from multi-month highs to end more than 1% lower on the first trading day of the year after OPEC+ failed to decide on Monday whether to increase output in February and agreed to meet again on Tuesday. Brent futures settled 71 cents, or 1.4%, lower at $51.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 90 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $47.62. Earlier in the session, WTI hit its highest since February and Brent its highest since March. The premium of Brent over WTI reached its highest since May. The S&P 500 and the Dow also fell from record levels as President Donald Trump travels to Georgia in a bid to keep the U.S. Senate in the hands of his Republican Party ahead of Tuesday’s run-off election in the battleground state. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, will resume talks on Tuesday after reaching a deadlock over February oil output levels as Saudi Arabia argued against pumping more due to new coronavirus lockdowns while Russia led calls for higher production citing recovering demand. “Anything can happen, but Russia may not want to lose face and capitulate so easily. It looks like we may be in for some lengthy negotiations,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy. In Europe, England was set for a new lockdown to try to slow a surge in COVID-19 cases that threatens to overwhelm parts of the health system, while Germany was weighing whether to allow a delay in administering a second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to make scarce supplies go further. In the Middle East, meanwhile, the news was mixed. Oil prices gained some support earlier in the day after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in Gulf waters and Iran resumed uranium enrichment at an underground nuclear facility. But later in the day Kuwait’s foreign minister said Saudi Arabia will reopen its airspace and land and sea border to Qatar as of Monday as part of a deal seeking to resolve a political dispute that led Riyadh and its allies to impose a boycott on Qatar.
Oil prices slip before OPEC+ resumes meeting on Feb output levels - Oil prices jump as OPEC meets, Iran tensions - Oil prices inched up on Tuesday as tension around Iran's seizure of a South Korean vessel simmered and after it emerged that the OPEC+ group is studying a possible production cut in February, according to a document. Brent crude futures for March jumped $1.68, or 3.3%, to $52.81 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for February was up $1.85, or 3.88%, at $49.47 per barrel. Both contracts fell more than 1% on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, failed to agree on changes to February's oil output. Saudi Arabia argued against pumping more because of new lockdowns while Russia led calls for higher production, citing recovering demand. According to an OPEC document dated Jan. 4, the group is studying a 500,000 barrel per day output cut for February, and three other scenarios which include stable production or an increase of 500,000 bpd. OPEC+ are due to resume talks at 1430 GMT. Tensions around OPEC member Iran seizure of a South Korean vessel continued, with Iran saying the Asian country owed it $7 billion. For a Factbox on the importance of Gulf waters on oil shipping click. Sending bearish signals, England went into a new lockdown on Monday as its COVID-19 cases surged. "Near-term demand growth is stalling due to the resurgence of COVID-19 across North America, Europe and the Middle East and is likely set for deeper declines over the next several months," Fitch Solutions said, adding that Brent is expected to average $53 a barrel this year.
Oil prices jump 5% on OPEC+ output talks, Iran tension (Reuters) -Oil prices climbed nearly 5% on Tuesday after news that Saudi Arabia will make voluntary cuts to its oil output, while international political tension simmered over Iran’s seizure of a South Korean vessel. Brent crude futures rose $2.51, or 4.9%, to settle at $53.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended $2.31, or 4.9%, higher at $49.93 a barrel. Saudi Arabia will make additional, voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March. The cuts are part of a deal to persuade most producers from the group consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to hold output steady amid concerns that new coronavirus lockdowns will hit demand.“Saudi Arabia put the cherry on the cake and if there is one way to describe what its voluntary cut means for the market, ‘happy hour’ is a pretty fitting term,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets. OPEC+ resumed talks on Tuesday after reaching a deadlock over February oil output levels this week. An internal OPEC+ document dated Monday and seen by Reuters highlighted bearish risks and stressed that “the reimplementation of COVID-19 containment measures across continents, including full lockdowns, are dampening the oil demand rebound in 2021”.
Oil jumps, breaks above $50 for the first time since February as Saudi Arabia announces voluntary cuts - U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures broke above $50 on Tuesday for the first time since February, boosted by a surprise announcement by Saudi Arabia of a 1 million barrel per day production cut beginning in February and extending through March. The move higher marks a steady comeback for oil prices after the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent demand loss sent futures prices tumbling, and briefly into negative territory last April. WTI settled 4.85%, or $2.31, higher at $49.93 per barrel, after earlier jumping more than 5% to trade as high as $50.20 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude futures gained $2.51, or 4.9%, to settle at $53.60 per barrel. Oil prices also rose one day after Iran claimed it detained an oil tanker "due to repeated violations of marine environmental laws." On Tuesday, OPEC and its oil-producing allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to hold output largely steady in February. Saudi Arabia's surprise voluntary cut — announced in a press conference following the meeting — will more than offset production increases from Russia and Kazakhstan. The two nations will add a combined 75,000 barrels per day to the market in both February and March. It was the group's second day of discussions, after talks ended in stalemate on Monday. "WTI oil prices have climbed above $50, for a time, today, on an increasingly likely surprise move by OPEC+ to cut production next month, rather than raising it," noted Again Capital's John Kilduff. "The renewed lockdowns in the U.K. Europe has spooked the group," he added. Still, oil prices remain below pre-pandemic levels. WTI closed out 2020 around $48.50 per barrel, registering a 20.54% loss for the year. At the beginning of 2020, WTI traded above $63 per barrel. OPEC and its allies have been one of the driving forces behind price swings. At its December meeting, the group agreed to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day beginning in January after days of tense discussions. The group agreed to meet on a monthly basis going forward in order to set the next month's output level. Beginning on Jan. 1, total production cuts stood at 7.2 million barrels per day. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, noted that while the market views an extension of the cuts as positive, the fact that the group is failing to reach a consensus on the path forward cannot be discounted. This is especially true with Saudi Arabia exercising voluntary cuts. "I view this type of an 'agreement' as an indication that it is getting harder to get OPEC+ members in line and keep production constrained while demand looks threatened by ongoing lockdowns and slow vaccination roll out. WTI traded briefly above $50 following the headlines, but I suspect a more negative interpretation of today's meeting may cause crude to fail at $50," Babin said.
Oil Rally Unaffected By Major Product Builds - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a draw in crude oil inventories of 1.663 million barrels for the week ending January 1.Analysts had predicted an inventory draw of 1.271 million barrels for the week.In the previous week, the API reported a draw in oil inventories of 4.785-million barrels, after analysts had predicted a draw of 2.100 million barrels.Both Brent and WTI were up on Tuesday afternoon before the data release after the Ministerial Meeting for OPEC+ dished out a production decrease of nearly a million barrels for February and March, courtesy mostly of Saudi Arabia's surprise and voluntary 1 million barrel per day cut, more than offsetting production increases that were granted to Russia and for February and March. New lockdowns—and lockdown extensions—continue to cap any gains, with the UK announced a new strict national lockdown this week that will last for six weeks. Scotland will also enter into a strict lockdown at midnight tonight. Italy announced on Tuesday that it would extend its lockdowns through January 15, while Germany announced it would extend its lockdowns until the end of the month. The lockdowns continue to take a toll on oil demand.An hour before Tuesday's data release, WTI had risen by $2.32 (+4.87%) to $49.94, up $2 per barrel on the week. The Brent crude benchmark had risen on the day $2.53 at that time (+4.95%) to $53.62—up roughly $2.30 per barrel on the week.U.S. oil production held steady at 11.0 million bpd for the week ending December 25, according to the Energy Information Administration—2.1 million bpd lower than the all-time high of 13.1 million bpd reached in March.The API reported a large build in gasoline inventories of 5.473 million barrels for the week ending January 1—compared to the previous week's 718,000-barrel draw. Analysts had expected a 1.662-million-barrel build for the week.Distillate inventories also saw a massive increase of 7.136 million barrels for the week, compared to last week's 1.877-million-barrel decrease, while Cushing inventories rose this week by 1.003 million barrels. At 4:32 p.m. EDT, the WTI benchmark was trading at $49.95, while Brent crudewas trading at $53.63.
WTI Holds Above $50 After Huge Product Builds Offset Big Crude Draw -- Oil prices have held on to their 'Saudi Shocker' gains overnight despite the surprising surge in product stocks reported by API. WTI is holding the $50 Maginot Line as markets continue to digest yesterday's big move by The Kingdom to paper over cracks in the OPEC+ coalition: “We are the guardian of this industry,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said as he gleefully announced the cut on Tuesday. “This gesture of goodwill made by our leadership, in the name of His Royal Highness the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.” For now, all eyes are back on the current inventory status. API:
- Crude -1,663mm (-1.2mm exp)
- Cushing +1.003mm
- Gasoline +5.473mm (+1.4mm exp)
- Distillates +7.136mm (+2.2mm exp)
DOE
- Crude -8.01mm (-1.2mm exp) - biggest draw since August 2020
- Cushing +792k
- Gasoline +4.519mm (+1.4mm exp) - biggest build since April 2020
- Distillates +6.39mm (+2.2mm exp) - biggest build sine May 2020
Crude stocks tumbled more than expected in the last week of 2020 but product inventories surged...
Oil hits 11-month high after Saudi Arabia pledges voluntary output cut - Oil prices rose on Wednesday to their highest since February 2020 after Saudi Arabia agreed to reduce output more than expected in a meeting with allied producers, while industry figures showed U.S. crude stockpiles were down last week. Brent crude rose as much as nearly 1% to $54.09 a barrel, the highest since Feb. 26, 2020. It was at $53.87 a barrel at 0536 GMT after jumping 4.9% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures reached $50.24 a barrel, also the highest since Feb. 26, before slipping to $50. The contract on Tuesday closed up 4.6%. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, agreed on Tuesday to make additional, voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March, after a meeting with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers that form the group known as OPEC+. The reductions agreed by Saudi Arabia were included in a deal to persuade other producers in the OPEC+ group to hold output steady. With coronavirus infections spreading rapidly in many parts of the world producers are trying to support prices as demand takes a hit from new lockdowns being put in place. "Despite this bullish supply agreement, we believe Saudi's decision likely reflects signs of weakening demand as lockdowns return," Goldman Sachs said in a note, although the investment bank maintained its year-end 2021 forecast for Brent of $65 a barrel. OPEC member Iran's seizure of a South Korean tanker in the Gulf on Monday also continued to support prices. Tehran denied it was holding the ship and its crew hostage after seizing the tanker while pushing for Seoul to release $7 billion of funds frozen under U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels in the week to Jan. 1 to 491.3 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed late on Tuesday.
Oil steady after U.S. Capitol drama; tighter supplies in focus (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Thursday after supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol, with investors focusing on the likelihood of tighter supplies after Saudi Arabia unilaterally agreed to cut output. Brent crude was up 8 cents at $54.38 a barrel by 0125 GMT, after gaining 1.3% overnight. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 11 cents to $50.74, having slipped earlier in the Asian session. The contract rose 1.4% on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said it would voluntarily cut one million barrels per day (bpd) of output in February and March, after OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, met earlier this week. “WTI crude seems poised to rise higher as the Biden administration will clamp down on U.S. crude production, the Saudis tentatively alleviated oversupply concerns with their 1-million bpd cut present, and as the dollar’s days seem numbered,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. A lower dollar makes oil cheaper because the commodity is mostly traded using the greenback. U.S. crude stocks dropped and fuel inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories were down by 8 million barrels in the week to Jan. 1 to 485.5 million barrels, against a Reuters poll showing analysts expected a 2.1 million-barrel decline. The drop in crude stocks is a typical year-end occurrence as energy companies take oil out of storage to avoid tax bills. Trump supporters swarmed the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, sending it into lockdown, as Vice President Mike Pence refused a demand from the president to cancel his loss to Democrat Joe Biden before police declared the situation was secure and the certification of the election result resumed.
Oil rises as supply constraints retain focus amid U.S. Capitol drama - Oil prices rose on Thursday as Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter, unilaterally agreed to cut output over the next two months and as U.S. crude stockpiles fell. It was not immediately clear how the storming of the U.S. Capitol by supporters of President Donald Trump would impact oil markets, although some analysts believe President-elect Joe Biden's administration will clamp down on U.S. oil production. Brent crude was up 22 cents, or 0.41%, at $54.52 per barrel, after gaining 1.3% overnight. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 23 cents, or 0.45%, to trade at $50.86 per barrel. The contract rose 1.4% on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, said it would voluntarily cut 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output in February and March, after OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, met earlier this week. "WTI crude seems poised to rise higher as the Biden administration will clamp down on U.S. crude production, the Saudis tentatively alleviated oversupply concerns with their 1-million bpd cut present, and as the dollar's days seem numbered," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. A lower dollar, which makes oil cheaper because the commodity is mostly traded using the greenback, is also supporting prices, analysts said. U.S. crude stocks dropped and fuel inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories were down by 8 million barrels in the week to Jan. 1 to 485.5 million barrels, against a Reuters poll showing analysts expected a 2.1 million-barrel decline. The drop in crude stocks is a typical year-end occurrence as energy companies take oil out of storage to avoid tax bills. A sustained rise in WTI prices, though, may result in a resurgence in U.S. output. "If the U.S benchmark makes a sustained break above $50/bbl and beyond, it could encourage additional U.S. supply, which may be troublesome in the long run for many OPEC+ members," said Kevin Solomon, energy market analyst at StoneX. Trump supporters swarmed the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, sending it into lockdown, as Vice President Mike Pence refused a demand from the president to cancel his loss to President-elect Biden. Police have declared the situation secure and the certification of the election result has resumed.
Oil hits 11-month highs on Saudi cuts, shrugs off U.S. turmoil (Reuters) -Oil prices settled higher on Thursday, hitting 11-month peaks, as markets remained focused on Saudi Arabia’s unexpected pledge to deepen its oil cuts and firmer equities, shrugging off political turmoil in the United States. Brent crude settled up 8 cents to $54.38 a barrel after touching $54.90, a high not seen since before the first COVID-19 lockdowns in the West. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled up 20 cents to $50.83, after hitting a session high at $51.28. On Wednesday, crude futures prices briefly dipped when President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol after he urged them to protest Congress’s certification of his election loss. Oil prices have been supported this week by a pledge by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, to cut output by an additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March. “By next month, this bull market could re-establish into higher levels mainly with the benefit of Saudi Arabia’s unexpected voluntary 1 million bpd production cut,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. Seven North Sea crude cargoes were bought and sold in the trading window operated by Platts on Thursday, a record amount that trade sources say may reflect tighter supply after the surprise cut. “Saudi Arabia ...intimately knows the relationship between the oil price and the global inventory levels. Lower inventories equal higher prices,” SEB chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. Global equities were higher as investors believe Democratic U.S. President-elect Joe Biden would be empowered to spend more freely following victories by two Democrats in Senate races in Georgia that gave the party control of both chambers of U.S. Congress. [nL1N2JI1A9] “Expected stimulus measures under a Biden administration that will likely include significant infrastructure investment represents a supportive consideration capable of boosting gasoline and diesel demand,” Ritterbusch said.
Oil rises to 11-month high, logs weekly gain on Saudi output cut - (Reuters) - Oil prices hit their highest level in nearly a year on Friday, gaining 8% on the week, supported by Saudi Arabia's pledge to cut output and strong gains in major equity markets. Brent crude settled at $55.99 a barrel, climbing $1.61, or 3%, on the day and 8.1% on the week. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) closed at $52.24 a barrel, gaining $1.41, or 2.8%, also its highest since late February. WTI posted a weekly gain of 7.7%. Saudi Arabia this week pledged extra, voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March as part of a deal under which most OPEC+ producers will hold production steady during new lockdowns. The kingdom, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, was at odds with some other producers that wanted to boost output to head off U.S. shale companies from capturing more market share. Eventually, an agreement was reached to allow Russia and others to boost output while the Saudis restrict theirs. "This week the Saudis stepped up to try to take over the market and took ownership of getting prices stabilized," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. "It seems like they're on a mission again to get prices back up." The number of U.S. oil rigs rose for the seventh straight week, gaining eight to 275 this week to its highest since May, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. Analysts said oil prices could see a correction in the coming months if fuel demand remains constrained by the pandemic. Strict restrictions on travel and other activity around the world to contain a surge in COVID-19 cases are weighing on fuel sales, weakening the prospect of an energy demand recovery in the first half of 2021. The pandemic claimed its highest U.S. death toll yet this week, killing more than 4,000 people in a single day, while China reported its biggest rise in daily cases in more than five months, while Japan may extend a state of emergency beyond the greater Tokyo region. .
Oil hits highest level since February, posts ninth positive week in 10 - Oil prices hit their highest level in nearly a year and were on track for a weekly gain on Friday, supported by Saudi Arabia's pledge to cut output and strong gains in major equity markets. Brent crude climbed 94 cents, or 1.8%, to $55.35 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled $1.41, or 2.8%, higher at $52.24 per barrel, also its highest since late February. Both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains of more than 6%. "People are realizing the market is tighter than it has been in a while and that the commitment by Saudi Arabia to cut back production is going to keep the market balanced despite the concerns about shut-ins from COVID," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Saudi Arabia this week pledged extra, voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March as part of a deal under which most OPEC+ producers will hold production steady during new lockdowns. Analysts said oil prices could see a correction in the coming months if fuel demand remains constrained by the pandemic. Strict restrictions on travel and other activity around the world to contain a surge in COVID-19 cases are weighing on fuel sales, weakening the prospect of an energy demand recovery in the first half of 2021. The pandemic claimed its highest U.S. death toll yet this week, killing more than 4,000 people in a single day, while China reported the biggest rise in daily cases in more than five months and Japan may extend a state of emergency beyond the greater Tokyo region. A global equities rally pushed Japan's Nikkei and U.S. stock benchmarks to new records, as investors focused on further stimulus to mend the economic damage of the pandemic. The U.S. Congress may soon approve more pandemic relief, a scenario that became more likely after two Georgia Democrats won Senate seats that handed Democrats control of both houses of Congress once Biden is sworn in. "The energy complex (is) placing particular focus on the democratic victories in the Georgia elections that, in turn, boost the likelihood of larger stimulus measures," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.
OPEC December oil output rises for sixth month led by Libya - survey (Reuters) - OPEC oil output rose for a sixth month in December, a Reuters survey found, buoyed by further recovery in Libyan production and smaller rises elsewhere in the group. The 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 25.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the survey found, up 280,000 bpd from November and a further increase from a three-decade low reached in June. OPEC output is set to rise further in January after OPEC+ - which groups OPEC and other producers including Russia - agreed to ease output cuts. Under a deal on February output agreed on Tuesday, most of OPEC+ will keep production steady while Saudi Arabia has offered to make a big voluntary cut. “The additional production cut by Saudi Arabia will probably prevent the oil market from becoming oversupplied, which risked happening otherwise,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, referring to the first quarter. In December, the biggest supply increase came from Libya, an OPEC member which is exempt from OPEC+ cuts, the survey found. Libyan output had been largely shut down for months due to unrest.The OPEC producers bound by the supply deal also boosted output in December, the survey found, which meant their compliance with agreed output cuts slipped to 99% from 102% in November and hit their lowest level since August.
Saudi Arabia restores diplomatic ties with Qatar after three-year rift - Saudi Arabia has reinstated diplomatic relations with Qatar, more than three years after Riyadh and several Arab countries severed ties with Doha. Kuwait, a mediator for both sides, announced that Saudi Arabia is reopening its airspace, sea and land borders with Qatar. Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for the first time since the dispute erupted in 2017. He was there to attend the annual Gulf Cooperation Council summit in the ancient city of Al-Ula. Relations among the Arab nations soured in 2017, when Saudi Arabia and its allies — the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt — imposed a diplomatic, trade and travel blockade on Qatar. They accused the tiny Gulf nation of supporting terrorism and of being too close to Iran, allegations that Doha has always denied. The dispute plunged the region into a diplomatic crisis not seen since the 1991 war against Iraq, and exposed deep ideological differences in the region. Qatar's emir in 2018 said the dispute was a "futile crisis," and that Qatar preserved its sovereignty despite "aggression" from its neighbors. Saudi-owned media Al-Arabiya also reported on Tuesday that Egypt has agreed to reopen its airspace to Qatar. Ahead of the summit, the UAE's minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, said in a tweet the GCC meeting will restore Gulf cohesion. "There is still work to be done and we are in the right direction," he said. Restoring diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is part of Washington's latest effort to broker deals in the Middle East. In a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalized relations with Israel in 2020.
End of Qatar blockade is 'a win for the region,' Saudi foreign minister says - The end of the Gulf dispute is a win for the region, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister told CNBC after announcing that relations between Qatar and four Arab countries have been fully restored. Leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Egypt on Tuesday signed an agreement that aims to strengthen unity and cohesion. The deal came more than three years after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a trade and travel blockade on Qatar. "We were able to reach the Al-Ula declaration which puts behind us a dispute … among the four countries and Qatar," said Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, Saudi Arabia's minister of foreign affairs, referring to the agreement named after the ancient city of Al-Ula where leaders of the Arab nations met. The region plunged into a crisis in 2017, when Saudi Arabia and its allies cut off diplomatic and trade ties with Qatar, accusing the tiny gas-rich nation of being too close to Iran and supporting terrorism. Doha has denied these allegations. Saudi Arabia on Monday opened its airspace, land and sea borders to Qatar. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, with a hug when the latter arrived on Saudi soil. Al-Saud said he thinks the deal will be a "very, very strong basis" for regional stability going forward. Asked if it was a win for the outgoing Trump administration, al-Saud said: "I think this agreement racks up a win for the region, first of all, a win for all of us." Still, he acknowledged support from the U.S. and Kuwait, which has been mediating between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. "Absolutely, President Trump and (White House senior advisor) Jared Kushner contributed to reaching this agreement, working very closely with Kuwait, who has been working on this for some time," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble.
UK government refuses to publish list of airstrikes in Yemen involving civilian casualties - The British government has refused to publish its database supposedly logging civilian casualties from murderous airstrikes in Yemen carried out by the Saudi-led coalition, which is armed by the UK and US. While the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has listed a staggering 516 potential International Humanitarian Law (IHL) violations by the coalition of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the real number is far higher. Destroyed house in South Sanaa, Yemen. (credit: Wikimedia Commons) Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government is intent on maintaining the barbaric House of Saud’s control over the Arab Peninsula. It is suppressing any information that Riyadh or its backers are committing war crimes and avoiding accusations that the UK is violating its own rules against supplying arms likely to be used in violation of IHL. The UK is a crucial supplier of weaponry to the coalition, having licensed more than £6.5 billion worth of arms in the five years since April 26, 2015, when the bombing began. Many of the bombs, missiles, and aircraft components are licensed via the opaque and secretive Open Licence system that is “more flexible” than a standard licence and “avoids the need to apply for a new licence for every export.” The Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) therefore estimates that the real value of the UK’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia since the start of the war is £18 billion, around three times the official figure. In July 2019, the Court of Appeal, in a case brought by CAAT, ruled that the government had failed to assess whether British-supplied weapons would be used in Riyadh’s murderous war in Yemen, in breach of both IHL and Britain’s own laws prohibiting the sale of weapons when there is a “clear risk they might be used in violations of international humanitarian law.” It banned further sales pending a review of the government’s vetting procedures, which had revealed that the government had simply stopped recording whether suspected violations had occurred. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has shown that the Saudi-led war against Yemen—waged with the full backing of Washington and London—has killed over 100,000 people, mostly civilians. The attacks have targeted food production, schools and hospitals, creating the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Around 24 million of the country’s 28 million people need humanitarian aid, with at least half the population on the brink of starvation. Many thousands have died of starvation, including at least 75,000 children under five, while the worst cholera epidemic in modern history has infected 1.2 million.
Trump personally ordered aircraft carrier to stay in the Middle East: report - President Trump ordered Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller last week to reverse bringing the aircraft carrier the USS Nimitz home and keep the vessel in the Middle East, CNN reported on Monday.The carrier had been ordered last week to return home in a show of de-escalating tensions with Iran. An unidentified defense official told CNN that Miller’s de-escalation goals had not been formally adopted. The call home took some commanders by surprise, multiple officials told the outlet, and U.S. Central Command also wanted the carrier to remain in the region.Trump reportedly reversed the decision following a White House meeting Sunday. Miller said in a Sunday statement that “Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the USS Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment.”Some U.S. officials were also concerned that Iran could stage an attack on the one-year anniversary of the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani and the Iraqui Shia military leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.Following the reversal of the aircraft carrier move, Iranian officials said Monday that Tehran has resumed 20 percent uranium enrichment levels that it reached prior to the Obama-era 2015 nuclear agreement that the U.S. left in 2018.Iran on Monday also seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz hours before announcing its nuclear increase, according to multiple reports. The U.S. State Department has called for the tanker’s release.CNN noted that diplomats and other officials believe that Iranian leaders are aware that the U.S.’s relationship with Iran could drastically change under the incoming Biden administration.
South Korean Warship Now Patrolling Persian Gulf After Iran Seized Tanker -A South Korean warship sailed into the Persian Gulf on Tuesday after Iran seized a South Korean-flagged tanker in the waters.South Korea’s defense ministry said the destroyer Choi Young was operating near the Strait of Hormuz. "It is carrying out missions to ensure the safety of our nationals," South Korean Defense Ministry spokesperson Boo Seung Chan said of the destroyer. South Korea has approximately 300 members of an anti-piracy unit that have been operating in the region since last year and are reportedly on board the Choi Young destroyer. According to The Drive, among its weapons systems include the following: The primary armament on these ships are Mk 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) arrays, with each of the destroyers having a total of 64 cells. These can be loaded with a mixture of U.S.-mad e Standard Missile 2 Block IIIA surface-to-air missiles or South Korean-designed Hyunmoo-3 land-attack cruise missiles, as well as the Korean Anti-Submarine Rocket (K-ASROC), also known as the Red Shark, an anti-submarine weapon that has a homing torpedo as its warhead. We don't know what the Choi Young's exact loadout is on this deployment. Officials in Seoul insist that the situation with Iran will be resolved diplomatically, despite the deployment of the warship.South Korea is sending a delegation to Iran to negotiate the release of the tanker ahead of a planned visit to Tehran next week.
Israeli Airstrikes Rock Damascus At Moment All Eyes Are On US Capitol --At a moment international media and political leaders are focused on watching the mayhem unfolding on Capitol Hill, Israel has again attacked Syria, hitting southern Damascus with a series of airstrikes Wednesday night. This is the third such Israeli attack in three weeks, during which Syrian air defenses were active and said to have intercepted some of the inbound missiles. State-run SANA said the strikes were launched from the direction Golan Heights region, and that many missiles were successfully intercepted.According to The Jerusalem Post: An alleged Israeli airstrike targeted locations in southern Syria as explosions were heard in the skies over Damascus on Wednesday night, according to Syrian state media SANA.The strikes were launched from the Golan Heights, a Syrian military source told SANA, claiming that most of the incoming missiles were intercepted by Syrian air defenses.While it's likely that Israel already had the targets in mind - given also such attacks have become almost "routine" - it appears the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) intentionally conducted the operation at a moment the world's eyes are fixated on watching events unfold in Washington D.C.Casualties are as yet unknown, with the extent of damage further unconfirmed. During a prior Christmas Eve attack on the Syrian countryside there were multiple casualties reported.
Alibaba founder, Chinese billionaire Jack Ma suspected missing -- Speculation has swirled around Chinese billionaire Jack Ma’s whereabouts after reports surfaced that the high-profile businessman has not made a public appearance in more than two months.The Alibaba founder also failed to appear as scheduled in the final episode of his own talent show, Africa’s Business Heroes, which gives budding African entrepreneurs the chance to compete for a slice of US $1.5 million.Ma was supposed to be part of the judging, but was replaced by an Alibaba executive in the November final, UK’s Telegraph reported. His picture was also taken off the website.An Alibaba spokesperson said Ma was unable to take part on the judging panel “due to a schedule conflict”, according to Financial Times.Ma’s business empire, Ant Group, has been under scrutiny by Beijing ever since Ma delivered a controversial speech in Shanghai on 24 October that criticised China’s regulation system for stifling innovation and likened global banking rules to an “old people’s club”.“Today’s financial system is the legacy of the Industrial Age,” Ma said in the speech.“We must set up a new one for the next generation and young people. We must reform the current system.” Little over a week later, Ant’s IPO (valued at a record-setting US $37 billion or AU $48 billion), which had already received the green light from China’s securities watchdog, was suspended, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange saying Ant had reported “significant issues such as the changes in financial technology regulatory environment”.But US veteran investor Mark Mobius said the move was designed to curtail financial institutions from getting too big. “I believe the Chinese government stepped in because they realised that they had to regulate these companies, so that they don’t … get too big,” he told CNBC.
World's 500 Richest People Added $1.8 Trillion to Their Combined Wealth in 2020 - Bloomberg's year-end report on the wealth of the world's billionaires shows that the richest 500 people on the planet added $1.8 trillion to their combined wealth in 2020, accumulating a total net worth of $7.6 trillion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index recorded its largest annual gain in the list's history last year, with a 31% increase in the wealth of the richest people. The historic hoarding of wealth came as the world confronted the coronavirus pandemic and its corresponding economic crisis, which the United Nations last month warned is a "tipping point" set to send more than 207 million additional people into extreme poverty in the next decade—bringing the number of people living in extreme poverty to one billion by 2030. Even in the richest country in the world, the United States, the rapidly widening gap between the richest and poorest people grew especially stark in 2020. As Dan Price, an entrepreneur and advocate for fair wages, tweeted, the 500 richest people in the world amassed as much wealth in 2020 as "the poorest 165 million Americans have earned in their entire lives." Nine of the top 10 richest people in the world live in the United States and own more than $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, with more than half of U.S. adults living in households that lost income due to the pandemic, nearly 26 million Americans reported having insufficient food and other groceries in November—contributingto a rise in shop-lifting of essential goods including diapers and baby formula. About 12 million renters wereexpected to owe nearly $6,000 in back rent after the new year.Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is at the top of the list, with a net worth of $190 billion. Bezos added more than $75 billion to his wealth in 2020, as the public grew dependent on online shopping due to Covid-19 restrictions and concern for public health.While Bezos and a select few others in the U.S. have amassed historic gains in personal wealth in the last year, the federal government has yet to extend much in the way of meaningful assistance to struggling Americans. The Republican-led Senate on Friday continued to stonewall a vote on legislation that would send $2,000 checks to many American households.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) denounced the proposal as "socialism for rich people" even though the plan includes a phaseout structure and individuals making only up to $115,000 per year—not those in the highest tax brackets—would receive checks.
Mexico prepared to offer Assange asylum - Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said on Monday that he is prepared to offer asylum to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. “Assange is a journalist and deserves a chance. I am in favor of pardoning him,” Lopez Obrador said during a news conference, Reuters reported. “We’ll give him protection.” “I’m going to ask the foreign minister ... to ask the government of the United Kingdom about the possibility of letting Mr. Assange be freed and for Mexico to offer political asylum,” added López Obrador. Reuters reports that the Mexican president praised Assange for revealing the world's "authoritarian" workings, noting that López Obrador has long sought to break from establishment politics and economics. Earlier Monday, a U.K. judge denied a request to extradite Assange to the U.S., where he faces espionage charges after publishing classified military and intelligence documents. "I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America,” said Judge Vanessa Baraitser in her decision. The judge added that she was concerned Assange was at risk of committing suicide. U.S. officials are planning to appeal Baraitser's decision. Assange had been sequestered at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London until 2019 when he was evicted and arrested.
World Bank report warns of extended downturn in global growth -The global economy faces at least a decade of low growth, wiping out limited gains in poverty reduction and per capita income growth. In addition, the risk is that a rise in COVID-19 infections, continued stagnant investment or a major financial crisis produced by the escalation of debt could result in an even worse outcome. That is the scenario set out by the World Bank in its semi-annual report on the state of the global economy issued on Tuesday. It said that at best the world faces a “slow and challenging economic recovery.” After a contraction of 4.3 percent in 2020, the bank forecast growth of 4 percent for 2021. However, that is based on a number of assumptions that are already in the process of being shattered. Its forecast was predicated on “proper pandemic management and effective vaccination limiting the spread of COVID-19 in many countries.” But as World Bank president David Malpass acknowledged, the rollout of vaccinations had already run into problems. “Even in advanced countries there have been difficulties in pushing ahead with vaccination programs, and that is true in poor countries as well,” Malpass said. Stronger language has been used elsewhere, with the situation in the US, the centre of the pandemic, being rightly described as “chaotic” and a “mess.” While he did not use the term, Malpass pointed to what has been characterised as “vaccine nationalism.” He noted that “advanced economies” had reserved vaccines beyond their capacity to distribute them, and expressed the hope that some of these supplies would be freed up for poorer countries. Even on the World Bank’s most optimistic scenario, the level of global gross domestic product in 2021 is expected to be 5.3 percent below pre-pandemic projection, equivalent to a loss of output of $4.7 trillion. Growth could be much lower. The report warned that if infections continued to rise—the present situation—and if vaccine rollouts experienced logistical problems—as is now the case—then global GDP may only expand by 1.6 percent this year. If financial stress, caused by rising debt, which was identified in the report as a significant risk, led to major corporate and government defaults then the world economy could contract again in 2021. The report noted that even if the pandemic is brought under control, its effect on global growth could be “longer lasting than expected.” Debt had surged above already-high levels and although banks were relatively well capitalized “a wave of bankruptcies could erode bank buffers, putting some countries at risk of financial crisis.”
Strikes spread across Spain as anger mounts at COVID-19 herd immunity policy - The last month of the year witnessed mass strikes and stoppages in Spain’s health care, transport, agriculture and industrial sectors. Further working-class resistance is emerging in January, as unemployment surged to 16 percent of the population, around 3.7 million workers. The COVID-19 pandemic has vastly intensified the struggle, as the ruling class seizes on the pandemic to slash wages and benefits and impose murderously unsafe working conditions. December started with the end of a 57-day strike by the dockworkers in Bilbao port, one of Spain’s largest ports. The 300 dockworkers denounced the “continuous breaches” of rest days, lack of staff and conditions of the machinery, and opposed the proposed wage cuts for senior workers and two-tier system. The trade unions have enforced the go-back-to-work order to take part in a mediation process. This peace, however, is only temporary. The last mediation meeting is set on January 13. Dockworkers are continuing to fight the consequences of the 2017 betrayal when the trade unions agreed 10 percent wage cuts and huge job losses in the form of early retirement schemes. In the north-western region of Galicia, a two-month strike by 600 metalworkers at Alcoa continues. Alcoa announced its decision to curtail the smelter’s 228,000 metric tons of annual capacity and proceed with the collective dismissal of workers at its aluminium plant. While the courts have struck down the measure, Alcoa workers continue to strike, aware that the company’s main aim is to close the plant or sell to Liberty House, another metal company which has not committed itself to securing the current jobs and wages. In Asturias, 1,300 steel workers from Daorje called two-hour work stoppages for a week against repeated breaches by the company. Daorje reacted by implementing a lockout. The unions cynically declared the lockout is illegal because it stopped workers who wanted to work against the union-led strike from doing so. In the same region, gold miners from OroValle carried out work stoppages during the first 48-hours of the year, at the beginning of each shift. The miners are protesting against a breach of the collective agreement. Further strikes are expected in January. In the Canary Islands, about a thousand postal workers of the publicly owned Correos postal service went on strike in late December against job cuts and the dismantling of the public service. In the past months, postal workers in other regions like Murcia, Almería, Gijon, Guadalajara or Madrid have also gone on strike against staff redundancies and excessive workload, provoked by the increase in demand due to the pandemic. The government’s heard immunity policy is provoking mass anger among workers. Overcrowding in the work centres and the lack of preventive measures have led to 9,300 COVID-19 infections or possible infections out of a total of 55,000 staff according to the unions. The PSOE-Podemos government, which manages Correos, refuses to disclose the extent of the infections among staff.
New year begins with record COVID-19 deaths in Germany - The new year began in Germany in an even more deadly fashion than the old one ended. Despite greatly reduced health authority capacity over the New Year holiday, the past seven days represented the worst week of the pandemic to date, with more than 4,500 deaths reported in Germany. On Tuesday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI)—the government health agency—reported another 1,019 deaths and 21,237 infections within the previous hours. The situation in large parts of Germany is characterized by overcrowded crematoria, hospitals on the brink of collapse and mass death. According to the DIVI register, 82 percent of all intensive care beds in Germany are currently occupied, about a quarter, or 6,000, with coronavirus patients. More than half of these must be ventilated. Undertakers and crematoria report they can no longer keep up due to the large number of the dead. In Saxony in particular, additional storage capacity has already had to be created in several places, or the dead have been transported to crematoria far away where capacity is still available. At the same time, reports are piling up about hospitals and care facilities on the verge of collapse; overworked nursing staff; doctors making decisions about who can receive life-saving treatment and who cannot; and hospitals that can only maintain their operations with the support of the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces). The Vogtland region of Saxony leads the country in new infections, with an incidence value of 929—meaning 929 out of 100,000 inhabitants, or just under 1 percent, have been infected with the virus, setting aside the number of unreported cases—in the past seven days. Of the 13 districts and cities in Saxony as a whole, only two have an incidence value below 300; all others are far above that. Large parts of Thuringia, northern Brandenburg and several districts in Bavaria also have similarly high numbers.
German teachers’ union backs in-person learning as COVID-19 deaths soar - The wave of deaths and new infections sweeping across Germany and Europe is the direct result of the policies of the federal and state governments. Businesses, schools and day care centres were kept open and the most basic safety standards disregarded to secure corporate profits. The current lockdown in Germany deliberately allows many businesses and schools to remain operational. In enforcing these inhumane policies, the federal and state governments, consisting of a broad range of political coalitions, can rely on the close cooperation of Germany’s trade unions. The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) supported the billion-dollar bailout packages for banks and corporations back in March. IG Metall, Verdi and Germany’s other major unions subsequently did everything in their power to ensure that the country’s auto plants, distribution centres and public transport remained fully operational, even under the most adverse and unsafe conditions, thereby exposing workers to massive health risks. This was the path taken to make good the billions handed out to the rich. Schools and day care centres were also kept open to ensure that parents went to work, although it has been proven scientifically that schools are key factors for the spread of the pandemic. According to the figures issued by the main official health institute, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), over 20,000 teachers, teaching assistants and child care workers have been infected so far, along with 40,000 children. Seventeen teachers and care workers have died from COVID-19. The German government finally responded and announced the closure of schools, initially until January 10 and now until the end of the month, only after parents and teachers increasingly expressed their opposition and pupils took strike action to demand safe conditions. In fact, most of the current “lockdown” took place during the Christmas vacations when schools were closed anyway. In addition, schools and day care centres were specifically told to ensure in-person care for the children of workers employed in non-essential businesses, thereby turning schools into mere custodial institutions.
Scotland entering new lockdown until end of January - Scottish officials on Monday announced a host of new lockdown measures as the United Kingdom continues to react to the spread of a new, more infectious strain of COVID-19 that officials have blamed for a surge of new cases. The BBC reported that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's government will close places of worship, group exercise classes and other places where in-person gatherings occur, while schools will revert to online classes. The majority of the measures apply to the Scottish mainland, while outlying islands where the virus is spreading at a lower rate are being closely monitored. The new measures also include a stay-at-home order directing most workers to work from home, and restrictions on gatherings of individuals from separate households were also put in place. Sturgeon told reporters Monday that she was "more concerned about the situation we face now than I have been at any time since March last year," according to the BBC, and added that a "steeply rising" rate of new cases threatened to overwhelm the country's hospitals. "The Scottish government will do everything we can to speed up distribution of the vaccine. But all of us must do everything we can to slow down the spread of the virus," Sturgeon said, according to the news agency. "We can already see — by looking at infection rates in the south of England — some of what could happen here in Scotland. To prevent that, we need to act immediately and firmly," she added. The U.K., as a whole, reported nearly 55,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, one of its highest single-day totals since the pandemic began, and has reported the most cases of any European nation. Scotland has seen better control of the virus's spread than England, according to a breakdown of regional data by The New York Times, and is currently reporting 2,475 cases per 100,000 citizens in comparison to 4,085 cases per 100,000 citizens in England. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson instituted a series of new lockdown measures for the month of November and closed shops ahead of the Christmas holiday last year, and in December moved to implement a series of strict regional virus prevention measures to combat the continuing surge of new cases. The U.K. has also begun the distribution of two vaccines for COVID-19, one produced by Pfizer and BioNTech and another by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca.
Hundreds of thousands in UK spend Christmas and New Year homeless as pandemic worsens - On any given day one in every 185 people in the UK do not have a home. The annual report by homeless charity Crisis issued last month is based on research by Heriot-Watt University. It states, “More than 200,000 households will be experiencing the worst forms of homelessness this Christmas, including sleeping on the streets, hunkered down in sheds and garages, stuck in unstable accommodation such as B&Bs or sofa surfing far away from their support networks…” The numbers of homeless has been rising for the past five years reaching a peak of 219,000 at the end of 2019—up from 207,600 in 2018. Crisis attributes a slight drop this year to the effects of the Everyone In scheme which the Tory government was forced to bring in as it responded to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The scheme saw around 15,000 homeless put up in hotels or other emergency accommodation in an effort to control the number of pandemic cases that threatened to overwhelm the National Health Service. Homelessness is not only the visible form of those having to sleep rough on the streets, the report notes. More than nine in ten (95 percent) of homeless households in England are hidden from view, “drifting from sofa to sofa or trapped in insecure, temporary accommodation.” Crisis chief executive Jon Sparkes commented, “Homelessness is dangerous and devastating, and yet this Christmas there will be thousands of people sleeping on strangers’ floors, freezing in flimsy tents or trapped in rundown B&Bs with nowhere else to go and no one to be with. “It’s unquestionable that the emergency measures taken to support people sleeping rough into safe accommodation, and the introduction of a ban on evictions, had a significant impact and protected the lives of thousands. With the economic damage of the pandemic set to be long-lasting, and with millions expected to be out of work by early next year, there is a very real risk homelessness will increase unless urgent action is taken.” These calls have fallen on deaf ears. The Everyone In scheme was rapidly ended in May and replaced in September by a paltry £91.5 million fund. This was to be shared by fully 274 councils in order to fund their plans for rough sleepers over the next few months. It was topped up by just £15 million through the Protect Programme in November. A third lockdown is now underway with the government committing no more funding and Everyone In consigned to the scrapheap.
UK teaching unions call for no work in “unsafe schools” as opposition among educators mounts - Deaths from COVID-19 and new cases of the disease surged in the UK over the holiday period. The 454 deaths announced yesterday took the tally in the last eight days to 4,588. Over the same period, just under 400,000 new cases were detected. Almost 55,000 cases were announced yesterday, with over 50,000 cases announced daily over the previous five days. Hospitals in major cities are now so full of Covid cases that patients are having to be treated in ambulances on arrival or being sent elsewhere. According to a leaked National Health Service (NHS) email obtained by Sky News, intensive care units in three London hospitals—North Middlesex University Hospital, Barnet Hospital and Whittington Hospital—were "full" on New Year's Eve. This left patients waiting to be transferred to other hospitals for critical care. Boris Johnson’s Conservative government has pursued a policy of herd immunity throughout the pandemic, allowing 2,654,779, people to be infected with the loss of over 75,000 lives according to official figures, and around 90,000 when Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. Today it is urging primary schools throughout England to reopen after the Christmas holiday. Schools have been a major vector for the spread of COVID-19, worsened by a new and more contagious variant of the disease. Despite this, Johnson stressed on Sunday’s BBC Andrew Marr Show that parents should send their children to school in all areas of England where they are open. His government views schools as holding pens that enable parents to go to work and keep the profits rolling in. Mass resistance to this murderous policy is growing and pressure from educators and parents, mainly organised on social media, has forced a crisis ridden and widely hated government to make several U-turns, including delaying the reopening of secondary schools until January 18.On Saturday, the government announced that all primary schools (children from four and 11) in London must remain closed at the start of the term. Previously it had insisted only those primaries in 22 of London's 32 boroughs would be affected by closures. Primaries in 27 other local authorities in the UK have also been told to close for an indefinite period, meaning a million children will not return.Laura Duffel, a matron at a London hospital, told the BBC’s Radio Five Live Saturday, “We’ve have children coming in and it was minimally affecting children in the first wave… we now have a whole ward of children here. I know that some of my colleagues are in a similar position where they have whole wards of children with Covid.”
UK in third national lockdown as coronavirus surges out of control - Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a third national lockdown in England yesterday. He said that people must stay at home for at least six weeks, except to go to workplaces, to buy food or medicines or exercise once a day. All schools, colleges and universities are closed from Tuesday.The lockdown is not as stringent as that imposed last March, with Johnson insisting that people should go to work if they cannot work at home to keep profits rolling in for the major corporations. Nurseries and early years providers offering 328,000 school-based nursery places for children will remain open. In addition, there are 120,000 children in special educational needs (SEN) schools and all together 270,000 children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) which qualifies for them to be vulnerable and in school. There are tens of thousands of staff who support SEN children. The least likely to be able to follow social distancing measures because of their age are staying in school thereby increasing the risk to staff.Detailing the horrific consequences of his murderous “herd immunity” agenda, Johnson said, “In England alone, the number of Covid cases in hospitals has increased by almost a third in the last week to almost 27,000. And that number is 40 percent higher than the first peak in April.” On December 29, more than 80,000 people tested positive for Covid across the UK, “a new record,” and “the number of deaths is up by 20 percent over the last week and will sadly rise further”.The National Health Service (NHS) could no longer cope with the spread of the disease. The “UK’s chief medical officers [of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland] have advised that the country should move to alert level 5, meaning that if action is not taken NHS capacity may be overwhelmed within 21 days,” he said. It was previously at 4 across the UK. The Guardian reported that going to level 5 was recommended by the Joint Biosecurity Centre before receiving the agreement of the chief medical officers.The scale of deaths in Britain is staggering, with the record for new cases broken almost on a daily basis. On Monday, another 407 deaths to COVID-19 were announced and a record 58,784 new cases. In the 10 days since December 26, 5,205 people have died of COVID-19, with 490,412 new cases of the disease recorded. This represents 18 percent of the total of 2,713,563 cases since the virus was first detected in the UK just over 11 months ago, on January 31, 2020.
COVID-19 deaths surge amid record new cases as Britain enters lockdown - Another 830 COVID-19 deaths were announced Tuesday, just hours before today’s national lockdown in Britain comes into operation. Daily cases hit a record of 60,916—the eighth successive day with over 50,000. In the 11 days since December 26, there were 6,035 Covid deaths and over half a million new cases (551,328). At a Downing Street press conference yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced to acknowledge that more than 1.1 million people now had the virus in England. Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty revealed that on September 10, due to the previous lockdown, only one in 900 people in England had the virus. By this week, one in 50 have it and one in 30 in London. A new more contagious variant of COVID-19 was first detected in Kent in south-east England in September. The same herd immunity agenda allowed it to spread uncontrollably, with the economy fully reopened along with schools, colleges and universities that became major vectors of spread. The greater south-east area of England (London, South East and East)—covering a population of 15.7 million people, including a labour force of 8.1 million—is now an epicentre of the pandemic. According to the Office for National Statistics, the new variant may already be responsible for 60 percent of all new cases. Public health services are unable to cope, with Lincoln County Hospital the latest forced to declare a “critical situation”. The new lockdown coming into effect today falls well short of that imposed in March last year. While instructing people to stay at home for the seven-week duration, much of the economy will remain open with Johnson insisting that people go to work if they cannot work at home. Non-essential retail, hospitality and personal care services will be closed, but restaurants are able to continue takeaway services and offer deliveries. Pubs can offer a takeaway food service, coffee and soft drinks. Hotels and holiday accommodation can remain open for a small number of guests. Workers involved in cleaning and building work in other people’s houses are allowed to continue. Estate agents are permitted to work and property viewings can still take place. Criminally, nurseries and early years providers offering 328,000 school-based places for children will remain open. In addition, there are 120,000 children in special educational needs (SEN) schools and a total of 270,000 children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) qualifying them as vulnerable able to stay in school. There are tens of thousands of staff who support SEN children. In-person tuition at colleges and universities is also able to continue for “practical courses” such as medicine, nursing, social work and education. Premier League soccer is being allowed to continue, despite reporting yesterday that 40 players and club staff tested positive for coronavirus over the past week.
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