Treasury nominee Janet Yellen to say U.S. does not seek weaker dollar: WSJ (Reuters) - Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden’s pick to take over the U.S. Treasury, is expected to affirm the United States’ commitment to market-set currency rates when she testifies on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Treasury secretary nominee will make clear at a Senate confirmation hearing that the United States does not seek a weaker dollar, the newspaper reported on.wsj.com/35NaV8W on Sunday, citing Biden transition officials familiar with her preparation. “The value of the U.S. dollar and other currencies should be determined by markets. Markets adjust to reflect variations in economic performance and generally facilitate adjustments in the global economy,” Yellen will say according to the report, if asked about the incoming administration’s dollar policy. “The United States doesn’t seek a weaker currency to gain competitive advantage,” she is prepared to say, according to the WSJ. “We should oppose attempts by other countries to do so.” A Biden transition team official did not respond to a request for comment about Yellen’s testimony. Biden, a Democrat, takes office on Wednesday. The policy outlined by Yellen would be a return to a traditional posture after Republican President Donald Trump railed against the dollar’s strength for years, saying it gave other countries a competitive advantage. It also comes with investors heavily short dollars - with the value of bets against the greenback the highest in almost a decade - partly in anticipation of U.S. trade and budget deficits widening further under the new administration.
Janet Yellen Is Set to Inherit a Helluva Lot of Power, Thanks to Stealthy Changes in the Law - Pam Martens -- At 10 a.m. tomorrow morning the Senate Finance Committee will hold the confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen to become the next U.S. Treasury Secretary. In that role, Yellen sits atop a sprawling federal agency that includes the IRS; the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates national banks and reports on their hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives; the Bureau of Engraving and Printing; the U.S. Mint; the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) which is tasked with combating money laundering but has failed miserably in the job; and numerous other units. In addition, legislation passed by Congress puts Yellen in charge of the slush fund known as the Exchange Stabilization Fund; makes her the Chair of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and, thanks to stealthy legislation passed during the Trump administration, the Treasury Secretary is now a permanent member of the National Security Council (NSC). Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, who came to that role after serving as National Finance Chairman of Trump’s presidential campaign, became the first Treasury Secretary to be a permanent part of the NSC thanks to a provision added to the 2018 Foreign Investment Regulatory Review Modernization Act. That provision is now codified into law at 50 U.S. Code § 3021. As Wall Street On Parade reported recently, as a result of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation, the Treasury Secretary is also permitted to take the Federal Reserve hostage during a financial crisis. Section 1101 of the Dodd-Frank Act provides that the Federal Reserve Board, “may not establish any program or facility under this paragraph without the prior approval of the Secretary of the Treasury.” The referenced paragraph pertains to the Fed’s ability to enact emergency lending facilities during a financial crisis. In other words, assuming Yellen is confirmed, the Federal Reserve must now say “may I” to a Cabinet Secretary in the Executive Branch before implementing any new emergency lending programs. That’s a helluva lot of power for Janet Yellen – especially since she has received millions of dollars in speaking fees from the felon banks on Wall Street since stepping down as Fed Chair in February of 2018, when she failed to get renominated as Fed Chair by Trump. Yellen’s financial disclosure form was made public at the end of December. It shows that since leaving the Fed in February of 2018, she has made more than $8 million in speaking fees with $5 million of that coming from Wall Street related firms, including the largest banks supervised by the Fed. Yellen, cleverly, lists the exact amounts in speaking fees she received for years 2019 and 2020 but for her speaking gigs in 2018, the year in which she would have been most in demand as the newly retired Fed Chair, she simply states that the firms provided $5,000 or more. One of the firms that paid Yellen speaking fees in 2018 was JPMorgan Chase. Just how much that bank paid Yellen is a critical matter. That’s because JPMorgan Chase is not only the largest bank in the U.S. but it has also racked up the largest number of felony counts of any U.S. bank, all brought by the Department of Justice and all admitted to by the bank. If the Biden administration wants to usher in a new era of honesty and transparency with the American people, it will instruct Yellen to make public all of her speaking fees and corporate compensation since she left the Chairmanship of the Fed on February 3, 2018, and do it in advance of the confirmation hearing set for tomorrow.
Q4 GDP Forecasts -The BEA will release the preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP this coming Thursday, January 28th. The consensus estimate is for a 4.3% annualized increase in GDP. From Merrrill Lynch: We expect the first estimate of 4Q GDP growth to come in at a robust 4.5% qoq saar, supported by continued strength in residential and equipment investment. Consumption likely slowed but remained positive. [Jan 22 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Jan 21 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2020:Q4 and 6.6% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 22 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2020 is 7.5 percent on January 21, up from 7.4 percent on January 15. [Jan 21 estimate]
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average. This data is as of January 17th. The seven day average is down 59.0% from last year (41.0% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through January 16, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins." Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Red is 2020 and Blue is 2021. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 14th. Movie ticket sales were at $11 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week at this time of year).
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). This data is through January 9th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 28.3% year-over-year. 
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Blue is for 2021.As of January 8th, gasoline supplied was off about 12.1% (about 87.9% of the same week in 2019).This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through January 16th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 46% of the January level. It is at 35% in Chicago, and 51% in Houston - and mostly moving sideways.Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020. This data is through Friday, January 15th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
• Renewed restrictions and the end to the holiday season seem to be bending the cases curve.
• The vaccine rollout should continue to accelerate as new resources and effort is put into the project.
• There is one major caveat: new more contagious strains have arrived in the US.
... What does this mean for the economy? We continue to see upside risks to our above consensus forecast. We think the vulnerable population will be inoculated by March/April, cutting hospitalizations dramatically, and allowing a partial reopening. Michelle Meyer and team have already boosted their GDP forecast for 2021 from 4.6% to 5.0% based on a somewhat earlier and bigger stimulus package. Moreover, like most forecasters they have not incorporated the impact of a second package.
Biden reverses Trump's freeze on $27.4 billion in funds - The Biden administration on Wednesday unfroze $27.4 billion in government funding that former President Trump locked up before leaving office. Last Thursday, Trump used a budgetary legal provision calling on Congress to rescind funds from 73 programs that were fully funded in December's $2.3 trillion omnibus spending bill. Trump signed the bill into law but complained about many of its provisions. The budget law allows the president to freeze relevant funds in the program for up to 45 days while Congress considers whether to accept or reject the rescission request to cancel out the programs' funding. Congressional Democrats had reacted in fury to Trump's attempt to even briefly block the programs, which included funds for international COVID-19 vaccination efforts, environmental protection, arts and humanities programs, and a slew of foreign policy initiatives. “After four years of the Trump Administration diminishing the United States’ place in the world, these rescissions would further eviscerate our global leadership role," House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said. In a Wednesday letter, DeLauro, House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), and House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) called for reforming the budgetary law to prevent such moves in the future.
Stimulus Checks Emerge as Tool to Fill Gaps in Targeted Aid Programs – WSJ —Lawmakers approved stimulus checks last March as an intentionally scattershot move to flood households with cash when the course of the pandemic and economy were uncertain. Now, as Congress and President Biden pursue a third round of payments, the economic case for them is shifting. A policy once viewed partly as a bridge until relief could be more carefully targeted became a recurring backstop to other programs during a bumpy recovery. Despite concerns from some Republicans and a few Democrats about giving money to people who don’t need it, many members of Congress now view the checks as an essential element of future relief legislation. The checks’ broad appeal stems from their near-universality, simplicity and speed, and they may become a more routine government response to future recessions. Though many payments would go to employed workers likely to save the money until after the pandemic, lawmakers defend that feature as necessary to fill gaps in social-spending programs. Unemployment insurance doesn’t cover everyone who lost a job or suffered an income decline, and some households faced long delays as states processed claims. “The people that we want to help, some of them, many of them, millions of them, are not getting help,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist who has studied stimulus payments and their impact. President Biden included $1,400 per-person payments in his $1.9 trillion economic-relief plan, adding to the $600 approved by Congress in December. He would also expand the child tax credit, unemployment insurance, food stamps and rental assistance. The exact legislative path and timing remain murky as Republicans object to Mr. Biden’s full proposal. Democrats, who control the House, Senate and White House, have the procedural power to move ahead on their own, making a new round of checks likely in coming months. Congress, mimicking a 2008 program, approved the first payments in March, and the IRS easily beat its past pace in getting money into bank accounts. Checks of $1,200 per adult and $500 per child began phasing out for individuals with incomes above $75,000 and married couples with incomes above $150,000. Democrats, then-President Donald Trump and 44 House Republicans embraced the idea of $2,000 checks in December. Under that plan, many households making over $200,000 would have gotten some money. That bill got blocked in the Senate, but Democrats promised to follow through if they won control of the chamber, which they did this month. They may adjust the income levels and phaseouts.
“Will Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus overheat the American economy?” -Menzie Chinn - That’s the title of a new article in the Economist: There are three main reasons to suspect overheating might be on the cards: emerging evidence that the downturn may prove temporary; generous stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy.The article recounts the calculation of what is needed to fill the output gap, and the possibility that the Biden package (see numbers here, from CRFB) over-fills. One key question in my mind is — how large is the output gap? If we use the CBO’s most recently published estimate of potential GDP and the mean forecast of Wall Street economists, then the output gap shrinks to zero by 2021Q4. If on the other hand, potential GDP is closer to the level the CBO projected in January 2020 — so essentially assuming not a lot of the hits to investment actually occur — then the output gap is zero at end of 2023. The CBO revised downward its estimated potential on this basis (CBO, July 22, 2020, p.3): CBO expects that the pandemic and resulting recession will significantly affect the level of potential output over the next several years by reducing the level of investment. In the agency’s assessment, recent developments will have little effect on workers’ long-term willingness to supply potential hours of work. By contrast, lower investment will leave potential output about 0.7 percent lower in 2023 and 2024 than it would have been if the pandemic and recession had not occurred. Through 2030, much of that shortfall in investment will be made up as businesses respond to growing demand for their products and services, but larger federal debt is projected to crowd out some private investment. Which potential is right? As discussed in this post, perhaps neither. Perhaps the Friedman “plucking model” of maximal GDP is more appropriate. Then the teal line in Figure 1 is right. The output gap shrinks to zero in 2023 as above. But the (absolute value of the) output gap on the way there is larger. As it turns out, inflation is more responsive to the “shortfall” defined using the plucking model than deviations measured using CBO estimates of output gap (see this post). From this vantage point, calculations based on conventional measures of the output gap are flawed. The output gap over 2021Q2-Q4 would be $530 billion instead of $157 billion (using the July 2020 CBO estimate). Two complicating factors: How much GDP will would grow in the no-stimulus counterfactual depends also on the course of the pandemic. With new, more communicable, strains extant, the current forecasts could be too optimistic. I’ve treated potential GDP as largely exogenous with respect to policy. However, if PPP, state and local government fiscal support prevent firms from going out of business, then fiscal support actually widens the output gap by maintaining potential GDP even as it shrinks it on the demand side.
Biden Stimulus Gets Skeptical Response From GOP Moderates - President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan got a skeptical response from two Senate Republicans whose backing he would likely need for quick congressional passage. Senators Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska -- both members of the bipartisan group of senators who helped propel talks on last month’s $900 billion stimulus legislation -- indicated Tuesday it was too soon since that bill was enacted to look at a fresh dose of spending. Their comments raise the stakes for the Biden administration’s outreach to lawmakers, amid discussions about a potential weekend meeting. “We just passed a program with over $900 billion in it,” Romney told reporters shortly after Biden’s inauguration. “I’m not looking for a new program in the immediate future.” Murkowski said she doesn’t disagree with Biden that another round of help for an ailing economy is needed. Still, she said, it’s going to take some time to consider it. “The ink is just barely dry on the $900 billion, and what the president is proposing is significant -- $1.9 trillion,” said Murkowski. “It’s going to require, I think, a fair amount of of debate and consideration.” Biden’s team already is reaching out to members of the influential self-described “gang” of lawmakers from both parties that helped nudge leaders toward completing the last pandemic plan by producing one of their own. Murkowski said she’s been briefed by Biden aides about the newly installed president’s proposal. A Democratic member of the group, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, said there are early talks about a meeting between its members and Biden’s team that could occur within days. Coming Meeting “We’re going to be meeting with them probably this weekend,” Manchin told reporters. GOP Senator Susan Collins of Maine said in a statement that she expects “that we will be meeting with one of the new president’s economic advisers within a week.” Biden’s proposal, offered last week, is the opening salvo in a legislative fight that could be prolonged by the go-big price tag and the inclusion of initiatives -- like a minimum-wage increase -- that are opposed by most Republicans.
What Can Sanders Do as Budget Chair? – Rob Johnson (video & transcript) I’m Paul Jay. Welcome to theAnalysis.news podcast. (Video from Sanders’ site) (various Republicans speak) “If we lose Georgia, Bernie Sanders is the budget chairman. If we lose a Senate do you know, who becomes the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. In 2016, Paul Ryan said Republicans should be scared of Democrats controlling the Senate because Bernie Sanders would be the budget chair. A guy named Bernie Sanders. You ever heard of him? Bernie’s budget, Bernie Sanders speaking out on spending priorities, the Senate Budget Committee is really one of the most powerful in Congress because it controls the money.” (from the Rising show) “Sanders has been creating a new stimulus package that could include an emergency universal health care program so that anyone can get medical treatment during a pandemic, whether they currently have insurance or not.”Bernie Sanders, who will become the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee on January 12th, tweeted this: “In the past, Republicans used budget reconciliation to pass massive tax breaks for the rich and large corporations with a simple majority vote.As the incoming chairman of the Budget Committee. I will fight to use the same process to boldly address the needs of working families.”So just what can Sanders do as chairman of the Budget Committee? And how will Sanders deal with conservatives in his own party who want to slow down the pace of economic reform? And what would a progressive economic program for the Biden administration look like? Now joining us is Rob Johnson. He’s the president of the Institute for New Economic Thinking – INET – and host of a new podcast, Economics and Beyond.
Biden to push U.S. Congress for money to fight pandemic globally (Reuters) - The United States will back a global plan to combat COVID-19 and get vaccines to poorer countries as part of a national strategy unveiled by President Joe Biden on Thursday, which includes pushing Congress for more funding for international efforts. Global re-engagement has been among Biden’s priorities since taking office on Wednesday and one his first actions was to rescind former President Donald Trump’s planned withdrawal from the Geneva-based World Health Organization (WHO). Under the U.S. COVID-19 strategy, Biden will direct his secretary of state and secretary of health and human services to notify the WHO and the GAVI vaccine alliance of Washington’s intent to support the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and join its COVAX facility. Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Thursday about Washington’s plans, the White House said. The ACT-Accelerator programme and its COVAX facility are the global plan to tackle the pandemic, aiming to deliver 2 billion doses of coronavirus vaccines by the end of 2021, 245 million treatments and 500 million tests. The first vaccine batches are expected to go to poorer countries in February. “The Biden-Harris Administration will seek funding from Congress to strengthen and sustain these efforts, as well as other existing multilateral initiatives involved in fighting COVID-19,” according to the strategy, which also calls for Washington to work on a way to donate any future U.S. vaccine surplus. In December the U.S. Congress allocated $4 billion for the global response to the pandemic, including vaccine procurement and delivery. But Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, warned that “additional resources are likely to be to be needed.” So far the ACT-Accelerator has received $6 billion and the U.S. pledge of $4 billion, but still needs another $23 billion. Blinken said it was in the U.S. national interest to make sure vac
Biden pledges to continue Trump’s campaign to open schools and businesses - Nearly one year since the first case of COVID-19 was detected in the United States, more than 400,000 people have lost their lives. The daily death toll and new cases are at record levels. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as many as 90,000 people could die in the next three weeks. Even this could be an underestimation. New, more contagious variants of COVID-19 have been detected in more than 20 states, raising the prospect of an even more rapid spread of the pandemic. This catastrophe is the background of the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, who is set to assume office on Wednesday riding a wave of popular revulsion and outrage over the Trump administration’s disastrous mishandling of the pandemic. Biden’s apologists claim that, unlike Trump, Biden will “listen to the scientists” and take the measures necessary to save human lives. Commenting on Biden’s COVID-19 policy, the New York Times published an editorial Sunday titled, “The Next President Actually Has a Covid Plan.” It concludes, “It’s hopeful, then, that the country is just days away from leadership that takes these problems seriously. President-elect Joe Biden has announced plans to revamp the nation’s flagging coronavirus response.” The Times editorial, however, is a dishonest narrative aimed at obscuring the fact that Biden and the Democrats have opposed and continue to oppose the measures urgently required to bring the pandemic under control. In explaining the origins of the present catastrophe, the Times writes of the “obvious mistakes” made by “officials” over the past year. “In spring and summer, the problem was testing and personal protective equipment; this fall and winter, it has been vaccination and genomic surveillance.” No, these were not “mistakes.” The Trump administration deliberately undermined testing infrastructure in the United States with the aim of preventing a panic in the financial markets until it had secured a bailout for Wall Street. As the Financial Times noted, Jared Kushner, who organized the White House’s pandemic response behind the scenes “had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it.” This cover-up was entirely bipartisan. Despite receiving numerous classified briefings by US intelligence agencies about the massive danger of the pandemic, Democratic members of Congress did nothing to alert the public. The Times did its part to sweep the looming pandemic under the rug, refusing to write a single editorial on the subject between January 29 and February 29. But while the deplorable state of testing and contact tracing helped ignite the pandemic nationwide, the principal cause of the continued uncontrolled spread of the virus is the rejection by the entire political establishment of any measures that undermine the interests of Wall Street and the profits of the ruling class. In particular, following the bailout of the banks in late March, the Trump administration spearheaded a “back-to-work” campaign, with the support of the Democratic Party governors throughout the country.
Biden Expands Food Stamps, Moves To Raise Minimum Wage As Stimulus Battle Brews - The Biden Administration's flurry of no fewer than 50 executive orders, executive actions and legislative action-items continued apace on Friday as the administration turned its attention to combating economic and "racial" inequality, following Thursday's COVID focus. Biden is cooking up two new EOs on Friday, one which raises the minimum wage nationally, and another expanding food stamp accessibility.The administration appears to be pivoting on from Thursday's theme - combating the COVID crisis - to Friday's theme (as previewed yesterday by the Hill a day ago) which is focused entirely on "economic/racial" inequality. First thing's first, Biden is signing two executive orders Thursday aimed at speeding pandemic stimulus checks to families who need it most, while increasing food aid for children who normally rely on school meals as a main source of nutrition. Biden, who has proposed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package (at least the third since the start of this whole debacle, if one counts the measure passed last fall by Trump and his team), is using the two orders to try to ease the financial burden on Americans while Congress continues to battle over the next stimulus package, which is already seeing some (not-unexpected) pushback from Republicans like Mitt Romney who once lambasted Trump for his utter unwillingness to work with the other side (even though they once would have done the same.Here's more on the package from Reuters: Biden, who has proposed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, is using the two orders to try to ease the burden on people while the legislation is negotiated in Congress. He has made fighting the pandemic an early focus of his new administration.The pandemic recession has hit Americans hard. Some 16 million are now receiving some type of unemployment benefit, and an estimated 29 million don’t have enough to eat. Women, minorities and low-income service workers have been disproportionately impacted, with Black and Hispanic workers facing higher jobless rates than white workers.“We’re at a precarious moment in our economy,” Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters in a preview of the orders.He said the actions are not a substitute for comprehensive legislative relief, “but they will provide a critical lifeline to millions of American families.”
Biden's minimum wage push faces uphill battle with GOP - President Joe Biden's proposal to boost the minimum wage to $15 an hour is emerging as an early source of partisan division in his broader COVID-19 relief plan. Biden won plaudits from progressives for including a policy to increase the federal minimum wage for the first time in over a decade in his $1.9 trillion relief package unveiled on Thursday. But some lawmakers on the other side of the aisle were quick to criticize that component of his plan, arguing it would hamper, rather than help, the recovery. “Forcing a $15 minimum wage into a coronavirus relief bill would do nothing but shutter the millions of small businesses already on life support and would force those that survive to lay-off employees,” said Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R), who is not seeking reelection, said COVID-19 relief should focus on vastly expanding vaccinations, not raising the minimum wage. “If the federal government mandates a universal $15 minimum wage, many low income Americans will lose their current jobs and find fewer job opportunities in the future,” he said. Biden, who has staked out a goal of passing the relief package with bipartisan support, appeared to anticipate some of the subsequent GOP backlash by noting on Thursday that increasing the minimum wage is popular, even in red states. “People tell me that’s going to be hard to pass. Florida just passed it, as divided as that state is, they just passed it,” he said. President Trump won Florida in the past two elections, and the state has a Republican governor and two GOP senators. Yet voters in the Sunshine State approved a ballot initiative in November raising the minimum wage to $15. “The rest of the country is ready to move as well,” Biden said. Twenty states and numerous localities increased their own minimum wage rates on Jan. 1. Nationwide polling indicates broad support for a $15 minimum wage. A 2019 Pew poll found that 67 percent of Americans backed a $15 rate, while a more recent Ipsos poll from August showed 72 percent of respondents supported raising the minimum wage by some amount, including 62 percent of Republicans. But getting 10 Senate Republicans to back Biden’s COVID-19 proposal and avoid a GOP filibuster will likely prove challenging. Moderates such as Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) did not respond to requests for comment from The Hill. A House-passed bill in 2019 that would have gradually increased the minimum wage until it hit $15 in 2025 was never brought to the floor by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a progressive who praised Biden’s proposal, said Democrats should use legislative workarounds if enough Republicans don’t get on board.
Biden’s Plans to Fight Inequity Prove Light on Specifics - President Joe Biden made it a point to highlight his fight against inequities when he announced a flurry of executive orders that reverse course on Trump administration policies. That said, details were scarce, with more likely to come over the next few weeks. Notable moves included a shift on government diversity training, a review of equity at every single agency and the naming of Domestic Policy Adviser Susan Rice to oversee accountability. What we know:
- Biden plans to revoke one of former President Donald Trump’s most controversial orders, which limited the ability of federal government agencies and contractors to implement diversity training that discussed “White privilege” -- and prompted many companies and agencies to suspend programs to avoid government action. He also is eliminating the 1776 Commission, saying the group obscured America’s history of racial injustice. (On Monday, the group issued its own version of the history of the nation’s founding.)
- Biden will order that every federal agency must review its operations for policies that might be discriminatory or unequal, and develop a plan to address those disparities within 200 days. The directive didn’t include specific parameters on how that would work.
- The government will create a new “equitable data working group” that will assess federal data, often used in allocating resources, to ensure it accurately reflects the diversity of America. The administration also will ensure the U.S. Census has time to complete an accurate count from each state to ensure federal resources are “efficiently and fairly distributed.”
- Biden will direct the Office of Management and Budget to more equitably allocate federal resources to support communities of color and other marginalized groups. The order didn’t include financial metrics. The OMB’s main task is managing the federal budget; it also coordinates initiatives between agencies and reviews policies to ensure they’re in line with the president’s goals.
- The administration will order all agencies to take all lawful steps to ensure the adoption of the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling clarifying that LGBTQ people are among those protected from workplace discrimination. For example, Trump had taken action to remove language specific to LGBTQ employees from many federal policies and guidelines.
- To aid immigrants, work on Trump’s controversial border wall willcease, and policies implemented as part of a crackdown on undocumented immigrants will be rescinded. The new administration will also move to protect young people in the U.S. as part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals -- so-called Dreamers, and end the ban on travel from primarily Muslim and African countries.
”A cry for racial justice some 400 years in the making moves us,” Biden said in his inaugural speech Wednesday. “The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.” Many of the actions will likely face legal challenges. Biden also may see some difficulty in broadening the executive orders, which only apply to federal agencies and their contractors, because of Democrats’ razor-thin margin in Congress. Lasting changes for underrepresented groups may not be evident for some time; Biden’s success will come down to the details, and how he and his team spend the next four years.
Exclusive: Trump lifting COVID-19 travel restrictions on Europe, UK, Brazil - sources (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday rescinded entry bans imposed because of the coronavirus on most non-U.S. citizens arriving from Brazil and much of Europe effective Jan. 26, two officials briefed on the matter told Reuters. Reuters first reported in November that the administration had been considering lifting the restrictions, imposed early last year in response to the pandemic, after winning support from coronavirus task force members and public health officials. The restrictions are set to end under a new proclamation from Trump the same day that new COVID-19 test requirements take effect for all international visitors. The White House did not immediately comment. Trump is due to leave office on Wednesday. Last week, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention signed an order requiring nearly all air travelers to present a negative coronavirus test or proof of recovery from COVID-19 to enter the United States starting on Jan. 26. The restrictions being rescinded have barred nearly all non-U.S. citizens who within the last 14 days have been in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Ireland and the 26 countries of the Schengen area in Europe that allow travel across open borders.
Biden Rejects Trump’s Plan to Lift EU, U.K., Brazil Travel Bans - President-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration rejected a move by President Donald Trump to rescind coronavirus-related travel bans for non-American citizens arriving from the European Union, the U.K. and Brazil, which means the curbs will stay in effect. Trump said in a White House announcement Monday that the bans could be lifted because of a decision last week by the administration to require international travelers to present either the results of a negative recent coronavirus test or evidence that they had already recovered from the disease. The change would go into effect starting Jan. 26, six days after Biden takes office. But Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for Biden, said the incoming administration plans to block Trump’s move. “On the advice of our medical team, the Administration does not intend to lift these restrictions on 1/26. In fact, we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19,” she tweeted. Trump said in a White House announcement that the moves could be eased safely. “This action is the best way to continue protecting Americans from Covid-19 while enabling travel to resume safely,” Trump said in a proclamation rescinding the order. Under his plan, travel bans would remain in place for China and Iran, the White House said, citing their “lack of cooperation” with the U.S. in fighting the virus. The airline industry and European countries have been lobbying the White House to end the blanket bans -- first implemented last March -- arguing testing standards and increased vaccination rates should allow the U.S. to roll back the travel prohibition. “We believe a well-planned program focused on increasing testing of travelers to the United States will further these objectives in a much more effective way than the blanket travel restrictions currently in place,” Airlines for America, an industry trade group, said in a letter to Vice President Mike Pence, who leads the administration’s coronavirus task force, earlier this month. But Trump’s effort to roll back travel restrictions comes after the discovery of a new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus was discovered initially in the U.K. Sequencing has subsequently shown the new strain of the virus circulating in other countries, including the U.S.
Biden to get second set of nuclear codes after Trump jets to Florida -- President Donald Trump jetted off to his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, on Wednesday instead of attending the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, marking the first time there will be two nuclear footballs in play.The nuclear codes Trump brought will be deactivated at noon just as Biden takes the oath of office, according to the Independent, at which point a new set of codes will be handed to the new president.Typically, the nuclear football, also known as “the biscuit,” which is toted by military officials whenever the commander-in-chief travels, is transferred from the president to his successo r on Inauguration Day. But this year, Trump decided to leave the White House before the Capitol ceremony for Florida and skip the event.Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Buzz Patterson, who carried the 40-pound satchel for President Bill Clinton, said the transfer of the codes is taken very seriously.“We war game this stuff, and we practice it ad nauseam for years and years,” Patterson told Business Insider. “There are systems in place to make sure that happens instantaneously. There won’t be any kind of question about who has it, who is in charge at that point in time.”
Biden Administration to Review Possible Sanctions Relief in Response to Covid-19 – WSJ - The Biden administration is expected to review existing economic sanctions for possible relief to help with the global response in combating the coronavirus pandemic. The secretaries of the State, Treasury and Commerce departments, in consultation with the Health and Human Services secretary and U.S. Agency for International Development administrator, will review existing U.S. and multilateral sanctions to evaluate whether they are hindering responses to the pandemic, according to a provision in a national security directive issued by President Biden on Thursday. The secretaries then will make recommendations to the president, through the national security adviser and Covid-19 response coordinator, for any changes in approach, according to the directive, which focuses on U.S. leadership in the global response to the pandemic. Mr. Biden has nominated former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen to lead the Treasury. He nominated Antony Blinken, a former deputy secretary of state, to lead the State Department. Former Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo has been nominated for the Commerce secretary post. The appointments await confirmation by the Senate. The directive comes after an effort last year by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control to clarify humanitarian assistance exceptions to U.S. sanctions during the coronavirus crisis. OFAC in April published a fact sheet that highlighted exemptions and authorizations for humanitarian assistance and trade under various OFAC programs to help countries combat Covid-19, including those related to Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Syria and Cuba. The new review hopefully can yield even clearer direction on licensing and guidance to help facilitate medical deliveries to jurisdictions that are under sanctions, according to Adam M. Smith, a partner at law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP.
Biden is facing a major confrontation with Canada is his first days in office —Canadian and U.S. officials are at odds over the fate of a pipeline underneath the Great Lakes, exacerbating disagreements over energy policy between the two nations as the Biden administration prepares to take office.Citing environmental concerns, Michigan state officials have told Enbridge Inc. to close its Line 5 pipeline, which carries more than half a million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids each day from Superior, Wis., to Sarnia, Ontario. Canadian officials say closing the pipeline would choke off more than half of the supply used to make gasoline, jet fuel and home-heating oil for the most populous parts of the country. The 645-mile pipeline, which is part of Enbridge’s mainline system that conveys oil and natural gas liquids from Alberta, feeds refineries in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and Quebec.“Pipelines are so vital to the economy and the recovery,” said Chris Bloomer, president of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association, a trade group. “We’re hoping for some pragmatism.”The dispute adds another point of conflict in the energy relationship between the U.S. and Canada. Officials, companies and environmentalists in both countries have clashed in recent years over how to balance energy security with environmental concerns.President-elect Joe Biden’s team has said that he opposes a proposed extension of TC EnergyCorp.’s Keystone pipeline, which would carry oil from Alberta to Nebraska. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has long advocated for the extension, has said it would be a key issue between the two countries during Mr. Biden’s tenure. Canadian officials said they expect Mr. Biden to stick with his plans to scrap the project.Calgary-based TC Energy earlier this month started taking bids for space on the pipeline, saying that it was confident the project would get built. TC Energy has also proposed overhauls—including a pledge to use only renewable energy—in a bid to win Mr. Biden’s support for the project. Environmental groups oppose the pipeline because of the threat of damage from spills and because they want to reduce the amount of oil extracted from Canada’s oil sands. Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline has drawn criticism from groups including the National Wildlife Federation and the Sierra Club, which say a spill would be catastrophic for the ecology of the Great Lakes.
Pompeo reveals intel that may link China lab to COVID-19 - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo late Friday revealed previously unreported intelligence that may link a lab in Wuhan, China, to the start of the global coronavirus pandemic. Pompeo also called on the World Health Organization to fully investigate the possibility that the deadly bug accidentally escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Daily Mail reported. “Beijing continues today to withhold vital information that scientists need to protect the world from this deadly virus, and the next one,” Pompeo said. The intelligence data claimed that researchers at the lab fell ill in the fall of 2019 with symptoms consistent with COVID-19, that scientists there were working with a bat coronavirus that is 96.2 percent similar genetically to the virus that causes COVID since 2016, and that the lab has secret links to the Chinese military, according to the Daily Mail. Pompeo did not suggest that the virus was intentionally engineered or released, instead suggesting it escaped the lab accidentally. The State Department said the lab “has not been transparent or consistent about its record of studying viruses most similar to the COVID-19 virus.” The call came one day after a WHO research team landed in Wuhan to seek clues to the pandemic’s origins. Pompeo said that the team should have full access to the lab and a “full accounting” of records on bat coronaviruses removed from its online database.
HHS Chief Alex Azar criticizes Biden's COVID-19 vaccine goal - Health and Human Services administrator Alex Azar said Monday if the incoming Biden administration achieves its goal of 100 million shots in arms in the first 100 days, that would be a “squandering of the opportunity” the Trump White House has laid out for them.Incoming White House chief of staff Ron Klain said Team Biden is “inheriting a huge mess” when it comes to vaccine distribution and that they would set a goal of “100 million inoculations in 100 days.” Azar, speaking on Fox News, said Klain’s comments were part of an effort by the Biden administration to “down talk where things are so they can look like heroes when they come in” and ride on the momentum that Operation Warp Speed has already created, adding that 900,000 vaccinations are being administered each day.“This whole President-elect Biden and ‘we’ll have 100 million shots in arms by the end of April,’ the first 100 days. We will have distributed 250 million doses of vaccine by the end of April. If they’ve only done 100 million vaccinations by then, it will be a tragic squandering of the opportunity that we handed them,” he said. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine tracker, as of Jan. 15, more than 31 million doses have been distributed and more than 12 million people have received the first dose of the two-dose treatment.
Gottlieb: Demand could complicate Biden's 100-day vaccine distribution plan - Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, on Sunday warned that demand for the COVID-19 vaccine may complicate President-elect Joe Biden’s plan to administer 100 million shots in his first 100 days.“I think they will hit that 100 million mark, I think the issue is going to become demand,” Gottlieb told CBS “Face The Nation” host Margaret Brennan.“I think they're going to have the supply in place and the distribution in place to do that.” Gottlieb, who sits on the board of Pfizer, which developed one of two COVID-19 vaccines that was approved for emergency use in the U.S., said that while demand issues may exist “the new administration put out makes a lot of sense.” “It's sort of an all the above approach, what we've been talking about, trying to push this through different channels like the big box stores, like pharmacies, trying to set up more federally chartered sites in conjunction with the states,” he added.As Gottlieb pointed out, roughly 30 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed so far and according to the former FDA commissioner, another 15 million will be made available to U.S. states this week.The rollout of the vaccines has been criticized for being too slow and mired in red tape. Biden's chief-of-staff Ron Klain said on Sunday that the Biden administration was inheriting a "huge mess" from the Trump White House in regards to vaccine distribution. Biden has also referred to the vaccine rollout so far as a "dismal failure.Gottlieb also brought up the threat posed by the various new COVID-19 strains cropping up around the world such as in the U.K., South Africa, Brazil and Japan. "I just think we need to be honest with ourselves that these strains are here right now, and we need to start taking action. You know, the simple things are still going to work, wearing masks, avoiding crowds," Gottlieb said. "And the quality of the masks really matters right now. If you wear a higher quality mask with this new infection, that's going to be very important."
The COVID-19 death toll in the US could reach 500,000 by mid-February, the incoming CDC director warned - By the middle of February, half a million Americans will have died of COVID-19, President-elect Joe Biden's pick to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has predicted.This would be a jump of more than 100,000 in a month."By the middle of February, we expect half a million deaths in this country," Dr. Rochelle Walensky told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.As of Sunday afternoon, the CDC had recorded 394,495 deaths from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. This included 3,557 added on Sunday. The US hadn't yet seen the full effects of holiday travel, Walensky added. This would bring higher rates of hospitalizations and deaths, she said. "I think we still have some dark weeks ahead," she said.Ron Klain, Biden's incoming chief of staff, made similar comments on CNN that same day. He expected the US COVID-19 death toll to reach 500,000 "some time in the month of February," he said.
Indiana lawmakers propose new law shielding businesses from COVID-19 liabilities -- As the coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the state of Indiana, and with vaccine distribution barely begun, state legislative leaders decided the first order of business in 2021 would be proposing bills in both the Republican-controlled House and Senate granting immunity from COVID-19 liability related lawsuits to businesses, schools, and health care providers. Similar liability legislation has been pushed for at the national level by Republicans in Congress. If such a measure is passed in Indiana, it will serve as a blueprint for other states, which are also seeking to protect corporations that have kept workers on the job under unsafe conditions throughout the pandemic, contributing to the 24.4 million confirmed infections and nearly 400,000 deaths nationwide. The proposed bills in Indiana would prevent individuals from claiming that they were infected with or exposed to COVID-19 and are entitled to monetary damages as a result. Indicative of the importance of these liability protections to the business interests in the state, one or both proposals are to be fast tracked to Republican Governor Eric Holcomb, who has already verbally endorsed the liability shield, by the end of January or beginning of February for his approval, rather than the normal late-April timeline. Senate Bill 1—so named because Republican senators consider it the most important legislation of the year—exempts any individual or entity from COVID-19 liability, barring clear and convincing evidence of gross negligence or willful or wanton misconduct. The shield would be retroactive to March 1, 2020, five days before the first confirmed COVID-19 infection in the state and would run through the end of the year 2024. In the House, Bill 1002, if enacted, would provide similar liability protections to individuals and entities, with additional shields for health care organizations.
Biden signs first executive actions as president - President Biden signed his first executive actions on Wednesday afternoon, hours after being sworn in as the 46th commander in chief. Biden, wearing a mask while seated at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, signed executive actions mandating mask use on federal property to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, rejoining the Paris climate agreement and extending support for underserved communities. "I thought there's no time to wait. Get to work immediately," Biden told reporters. "There's no time to start like today." The executive actions were among 15 items that Biden signed Wednesday on his first day in office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki later told reporters. The actions represent an effort by Biden to turn a page on the administration of his predecessor, former President Trump, by reversing some of his more controversial policy moves, including the exit from the Paris climate accord. On Wednesday, Biden also signed an order reversing Trump’s effort to withdraw from the World Health Organization in the midst of the pandemic, reversing Trump’s travel ban on majority-Muslim nations, rolling back regulatory reversals to safeguard the environment. Biden also sought to deliver relief to those impacted by the coronavirus pandemic by extending a pause on student loan payments and moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures. In total, Biden is expected to sign 53 executive actions over the next 10 days across the areas of the economy, climate, health care and immigration, according to a document outlining a schedule for his forthcoming moves that was obtained by The Hill. The executive actions represented some of Biden’s first official acts as president after being sworn in at the U.S. Capitol earlier Wednesday afternoon. He also issued a proclamation declaring Wednesday a National Day of Unity.
Worse Than We Imagined’: Team Trump Left Biden a COVID Nightmare - Twelve minutes before noon on Wednesday, President Joe Biden was sworn into office as the nation’s 46th president. Seven hours later, the United States reported more than 4,409 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, according to data collected by the COVID-19 Tracking Project.The Biden administration came into power with purpose and an extensive agenda to combat the coronavirus pandemic, but purpose and planning only gets you so far—particularly when the president’s team is only just now getting a clear picture of how badly the previous administration had managed the crisis.“What we’re inheriting from the Trump administration is so much worse than we could have imagined,” Jeff Zients, the Biden administration’s COVID-19 czar, said in a call with reporters Wednesday. “We don't have the visibility that we would hope to have into supply and allocations.”“I think we have to level-set expectations,” added Tom Frieden, the former director for the Centers for Disease Control in the Obama administration. “There are lots of things that an incoming administration can do on Day One, including speaking honestly about the pandemic.”The new administration is already behind, in part because the Trump administration was unprecedentedly hostile during the transition. The question now, however, is how Biden can get a handle on a raging pandemic when his team is already so far behind.The task at hand is enormous. More than 400,000 Americans have died of COVID-19. Every state, territory and the District of Columbia is in a state of emergency. The number of people infected with the virus who are now hospitalized is more than double the number reached during the spring and summer peaks. It’s not just the spread of the virus that the Biden team needs to tackle. Officials will also have to confront the disinformation and misinformation about the virus that has permeated all four corners of the country—where people still believe the virus is a hoax and that public health guidelines are too great of an imposition on their personal freedom to follow. But it’s unclear what power of persuasion the Biden administration will hold and if it will be enough to convince people to take the virus more seriously.
Biden inauguration marks shift in scattered COVID-19 response - On day one of his presidency, Joe Biden immediately set to work on confronting the coronavirus pandemic — an issue that is likely to define his first year in office — by signing several executive orders intended to mark a clean break with the policies of his predecessor. Biden’s orders will require mask-wearing and physical distancing by employees on all federal property and urge Americans to follow suit for the next 100 days. He also stopped the process initiated by former President Trump of exiting the World Health Organization (WHO). Trump was rarely seen wearing a mask and did much to politicize their use, and he blamed the WHO for the spread of the coronavirus. Other orders signed by Biden established the White House COVID-19 Response Team and restored the National Security Council’s global health security directorate, which was ended by Trump. Biden’s actions are aimed at restoring confidence in the U.S. response at home and abroad after a tumultuous 10 months of the pandemic. More than 400,000 people in the country have died of the disease, with millions more infected. Additional executive orders related to the COVID-19 response are expected in the coming days. “With the state of the nation today, there’s no time to waste,” Biden said from the Oval Office before signing several orders. “Some of the executive actions I’m signing today will help change the course of the COVID crisis.” Biden’s decision to rejoin the WHO drew swift praise from public health experts. “America is better off engaged with WHO,” tweeted Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown School of Public Health. “It is critically important if we want to end this global pandemic.” Trump ordered the U.S. to leave the WHO over the summer, arguing the organization responded too slowly to COVID-19 and went too easy on China, where the virus was first detected. Experts at the time warned that leaving the WHO would have disastrous effects for the global response to COVID-19, in addition to handling future health threats. Biden will also bring the U.S. into the WHO’s initiative known as COVAX, which aims to bring coronavirus vaccines to low-income countries. The Trump administration had declined to join the initiative. Remarks made Wednesday by both Trump and Biden presented a sharp contrast of their responses to COVID-19, with the outgoing president focused on downplaying the pandemic while the incoming one vowed to be straight with the American people about the challenging road ahead. As Trump departed the White House for the last time, he insisted COVID-19 cases would “skyrocket downward." Hours later, Biden warned that things would become worse before getting better.
Biden tackles pandemic's economic pain as experts worry about mutant strains - As the U.S. continues to struggle with Covid-19, President Joe Biden will sign two more executive orders Friday to tackle the economic fallout from the pandemic. Here is what we're watching this Friday morning. Have we reached peak Covid-19? Variants muddy forecasts for coming months Hospitalizations for Covid-19 in the United States are falling after having hit record levels this month — a welcome sign that the winter surge may finally be leveling off. But as new, potentially more contagious variants of the virus circulate, coronavirus modelers warn that the U.S. is by no means out of the woods yet, NBC News' Denise Chow reports. The emergence of new variants isn't altogether surprising, but experts say that without a better understanding of how these strains affect things like transmissibility and the effectiveness of existing vaccines, it's difficult to know how the pandemic may play out. With so much uncertainty, public health experts say the need to distribute the vaccines quickly is imperative. But the U.S. vaccine rollout has been problematic so far, with some states running out of their supplies while others have struggled to administer all the doses they were receiving. The slow process has led to some consternation that people may not be able to get their second dose within the prescribed time frame. But while potentially worrisome, public health experts across the country say there's no cause for concern. Meantime, another high-profile celebrity has tested positive. A few days after making news for photobombing a couples' wedding picture, Dave Chappelle announced that he has tested positive for Covid-19 and is now quarantining. Follow our live blog for all the latest Covid-19 developments.
Biden seeks to require international air passengers to quarantine upon arrival (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order on Thursday that would require international air travelers to quarantine upon U.S. arrival, and directed U.S. agencies to implement a federal mask mandate in interstate transportation. Biden’s order says “to the extent feasible” air travelers must comply with applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines concerning international travel “including recommended periods of self-quarantine.” It does not explain how it will be enforced. The order also directs U.S. agencies to hold talks with Canada and Mexico “regarding public health protocols for land ports of entry” including implementing CDC guidelines. Nearly all non-essential travel at U.S. land borders with Canada and Mexico is suspended through Feb. 21. The CDC recommends a seven-day quarantine for people arriving in the Unites States from nearly all countries. The order calls on agencies to “immediately take action” to require masks on or in airports, commercial aircraft, trains, public maritime vessels, including ferries, intercity bus services and all public transportation, but grants them the ability to issue exemptions. Biden is directing agencies to reconsider international contact tracing requirements for U.S.-bound passengers, which was abandoned by the Trump White House, as well as the possibility of follow-up COVID-19 testing for travelers after they arrive in the United States. The Biden administration is implementing new coronavirus testing requirements for nearly all international air passengers beginning on Tuesday, following a CDC order last week. Under the new rules, all U.S.-bound passengers age 2 and over must get negative COVID-19 test results within three calendar days of travel. The Biden administration announced it would reimpose entry bans on most non-U.S. citizens who have recently been in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Ireland and most of continental Europe after President Donald Trump issued an order on Monday lifting them effective the same day the new testing rules take effect.
Biden lays out plans for COVID-19 testing, vaccinations and masks (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden moved swiftly to coordinate a federal effort to fight the COVID-19 pandemic on Thursday, his first full day in office, with steps to expand testing and vaccinations and increase mask-wearing. At a White House event, Biden said the rollout of the vaccine in the United States has been a “dismal failure so far.” “Things are going to continue to get worse before they get better,” Biden said of the toll from the virus. He also made a personal plea to all Americans to wear masks over the next 99 days to stop the spread of the virus, which has killed 405,000 people and infected more than 24 million in the United States, the highest numbers anywhere in the world. Millions of Americans have been thrown out of work due to lockdowns. “This is a wartime undertaking,” Biden said. Biden’s tone and plans were in stark contrast to his predecessor, Donald Trump, who often sought to play down the severity of the crisis and left much of the planning to individual states, resulting in a patchwork of policies across the country. Executive orders signed by Biden on Thursday will establish a COVID-19 testing board to ramp up testing, address supply shortfalls, establish protocols for international travelers and direct resources to hard-hit minority communities. They will require mask-wearing in airports and on certain public transportation, including many trains, airplanes and intercity buses.
Biden to deploy FEMA, National Guard to set up Covid vaccine clinics across U.S.-President Joe Biden plans to use FEMA and the National Guard to build coronavirus vaccine clinics across the United States, according to new details of his Covid-19 vaccination plan released by his transition team on Friday. The Biden administration will also "quickly jumpstart" efforts to make the vaccines available at local pharmacies across the U.S., which should ensure that Americans have access to doses at facilities not far from their homes, according to the plan. "Here's the deal: The more people we vaccinate, the faster we do it, the sooner we can save lives and put this pandemic behind us and get back to our lives and loved ones," Biden said at a speech in Wilmington, Delaware, Thursday night. "We won't get out of it overnight, and we can't do it as a separated nation." Drugstore chains and pharmacies were supposed to take on a larger role in distributing the vaccine once the government expanded access to more people. But the slower-than-expected rollout has frustrated pharmacy chains. The National Association of Chain Drug Stores called on the federal government earlier this week to allow states to send more doses directly to pharmacies as they do with hospitals and health departments. The group estimated that the country's retail pharmacies could administer at least 100 million doses of vaccines each month, which would exceed the incoming administration's promise of 100 million shots in 100 days. The Biden administration has said current vaccination efforts are not sufficient to quickly and equitably vaccinate the vast majority of the U.S. population, adding, "We must ensure that those on the ground have what they need to get vaccinations into people's arms."’
Covid-19 Contracted by Scores of National Guard Members in Washington – WSJ - Nearly 200 members of the National Guard deployed to Washington in the days leading up to Wednesday’s presidential inauguration have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, and some officials fear cramped rest and working quarters contributed to the spread, defense officials said.-Approximately 26,000 Guard members from all 50 states, three territories and the District of Columbia were deployed following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol to secure the city through the Jan. 20 inauguration.Since Guardsmen arrived at the Capitol in the days following the attack, images have emerged of hundreds of troops inside the Capitol or other sites, sometimes close together and occasionally not wearing masks. On Thursday evening, a number of lawmakers from both parties spoke out in Twitter posts after reports that Guard members were asked to take rest breaks in a parking garage instead of indoor space.Reports that Guardsmen were working and moving in tight quarters raised concerns Covid-19 protocols can’t be maintained, a defense official said.Every Guardsman deployed to Washington was screened for Covid-19 before arriving, but not all were tested, unless required under the screening process, defense officials said. Roughly 5,000 Guard members are expected to remain in Washington through mid-March to support federal law-enforcement agencies, said Maj. Matthew Murphy, a National Guard spokesman.
Biden Moves Swiftly to Unwind Trump Immigration, Health Policies - President Joe Biden plans to begin immediately unwinding his predecessor’s policies on immigration, climate and other issues on Wednesday with at least 15 executive actions, including moves to reverse U.S. withdrawals from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, and stop construction of a border wall. Biden began signing the actions in front of reporters at the White House Wednesday evening, starting with an order requiring face masks on federal property. He said that some of his directives would “help change the course of the Covid crisis” and that his actions on racial equity “are all starting points.” Reporters were escorted out of the Oval Office after Biden signed three of the documents. Text of the orders and other actions was not immediately released. Biden is also expected to sign orders revoking a permit for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline and ending former President Donald Trump’s travel ban against some predominantly Muslim and African countries. While some of the orders will roll back unilateral measures Trump imposed, others -- including an extension of moratoriums on student loan payments, foreclosures and evictions -- are intended to address the health and economic crisis wrought by the pandemic. Biden’s aides say he’ll sign more Day One executive actions than any of his predecessors, to be followed by additional regulatory and policy changes over the coming weeks. Those will includes rolling back the so-called “Mexico City policy” restricting federal funding for organizations that provide abortion counseling and revoking the ban on military service by transgender Americans. Biden plans to immediately rejoin the World Health Organization, which Trump exited in May, saying China exerted too much pressure on the agency. He’ll dispatch the government’s foremost infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, to represent the U.S. Thursday at the WHO’s Executive Board meeting. The new president’s mask mandate will require face coverings and physical distancing for everyone in federal buildings and on federal lands. The requirement isn’t itself likely to have a major impact, as many federal offices are closed or have already implemented safety measures, but the Biden administration says it’s an illustration of the government leading by example after Trump and his aides flouted federal public health guidance. Biden will simultaneously launch a “100 Day Masking Challenge” asking Americans to mask up for the first 100 days of his administration. Eviction and Foreclosure Moratoriums His actions on the economy are intended to aid people suffering because of the pandemic. He’ll direct federal agencies to extend moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures until at least March 31. Some 20% of renters and 1 in 10 homeowners are behind on their payments, Biden’s transition team said. His administration will request additional assistance for Americans struggling with their housing payments as part of a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal to Congress. Easing Burden of Student Loans Another action will pause the the accrual of interest and principal payments on federal student loans until Sept. 30. Rejoining the Climate Agreement Biden will make several initial moves to restore efforts by the Obama administration to combat climate change, including re-joining the Paris accord. That deal, negotiated while Biden was vice president, requires countries to create emissions targets with the goal of keeping global average temperatures less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
What should Biden do about Medicaid work requirements? -I’ve got a new article out at The Atlantic digging into that surprisingly thorny question. At stake here is whether the Biden team can move quickly enough to forestall the Supreme Court from deciding two pending cases involving work requirements in Arkansas and New Hampshire. It’ll be tricky, in part because of some last-minute shenanigans to protect work requirements from reversal: On January 4, … the Trump administration announced that it was changing the rules. In a seemingly innocuous letter to state Medicaid directors, the director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Seema Verma, offered “additional details of the process” for withdrawing waivers. One of those new details is that no withdrawal can take effect for at least nine months.The change is a brazen, cynical attempt to protect work requirements long enough for the Supreme Court to rule on them. And while it’s dastardly, it’s also clever. When the states agree to the terms of Verma’s letter—and Republican-controlled states certainly will, if they haven’t already—its terms arguably become enforceable as a kind of intergovernmental contract. I say “arguably” because the letter itself may be legally defective, as two Democratic congressional leaders have already argued in an angry missive to Verma. But the possibility that the courts might treat it as binding means that it’d be risky for the Biden team to withdraw the waivers before nine months are up.The Biden administration still has options, however—and here’s where the creative lawyering comes in. Read the rest here. I’ll add that it speaks well of the The Atlantic that they were willing to run a piece digging into the nitty gritty of administrative law. It’s important stuff, but complicated.
Biden plans early legislation to offer legal status to 11 million immigrants without it - During his first days in office, President-elect Joe Biden plans to send a groundbreaking legislative package to Congress to address the long-elusive goal of immigration reform, including what’s certain to be a controversial centerpiece: a pathway to citizenship for an estimated 11 million immigrants who are in the country without legal status, according to immigrant rights activists in communication with the Biden-Harris transition team. The bill also would provide a shorter pathway to citizenship for hundreds of thousands of people with temporary protected status and beneficiaries of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals who were brought to the U.S. as children, and probably also for certain front-line essential workers, vast numbers of whom are immigrants.In a significant departure from many previous immigration bills passed under both Democratic and Republican administrations, the proposed legislation would not contain any provisions directly linking an expansion of immigration with stepped-up enforcement and security measures, said Marielena HincapiĂ©, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center and its Immigrant Justice Fund, who has been consulted on the proposal by Biden staffers. Both Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris have said their legislative proposal would include a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants in the U.S. illegally, and The Times has confirmed the bold opening salvo that the new administration plans in its first days doesn’t include the “security first” political concessions of past efforts. HincapiĂ©, who was co-chair of the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force on Immigration — part of Biden’s outreach to his top primary rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and his progressive base — said that Biden’s decision to not prioritize additional enforcement measures was probably a result of lessons learned from the Obama administration’s failed attempt to appease Republicans by backing tighter immigration enforcement in hopes of gaining their support for immigration relief.
Biden’s Immigration Package Faces Steep Odds on Capitol Hill – WSJ —President Biden is making an early bet that after years of stalemate the moment for comprehensive immigration reform has arrived. But lawmakers in both parties caution that Mr. Biden’s effort is likely to face some of the same headwinds the plans of the last three presidents did. On his first day in office, Mr. Biden proposed a broad immigration bill that would create an eight-year path to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants living in the country without a permanent legal status. It would have an expedited pathway for farmworkers and the young immigrants known as Dreamers, along with changes to the legal immigration, refugee and asylum systems.It proposes adding more technology to monitor people and drugs at the border—though no new barriers—along with $4 billion in aid to Central American countries to help stem the extreme poverty and gang violence that has prompted so many migrants to leave. Unlike previous compromise bills, Mr. Biden’s proposal lacks the countermeasures of increased security or deterrence at the border that Republicans have asked for in exchange for legalization. Some Democrats say they can rally around an immigration-reform package that makes no concessions. But the approach is likely to quickly run into opposition from Senate Republicans, at least 10 of whom would need to support a measure for it to clear the Senate’s60-vote hurdle for most legislation.Sen. Bob Menendez (D., N.J.), the bill’s Senate sponsor, told a conference of the American Business Immigration Council on Thursday that enacting the bill would be a “herculean task,” and could prove impossible without Republican cooperation. But, he said, Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are strongly supportive of the effort.“They want to get it done, and we will get it done,” he said.Some Republicans who might be open to working with the Biden administration on immigration policy say that Mr. Biden has started off on the wrong foot.“There’s common ground,” said Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.). “The toxic area is when we get into an immigration conversation and suddenly it’s, ’We’re going to begin with every person that’s entered the country…suddenly becomes a legal citizen here, no matter how they came.’ … That’s a bad starting point to say the least.” White House officials have privately told associates that they view the bill as primarily a starting point to unite Democrats, according to three people briefed on their thinking, and are determined to see what, if anything, they can achieve on immigration in their first six months in office. That window would ensure that any legislation wouldn’t bleed into the 2022 midterm campaign, when historically the president’s political party is at a disadvantage and may be wary of tackling controversial topics.
Migrant caravan attacked by Guatemalan troops as Biden team accommodates anti-immigrant right - With wooden batons, punches, kicks, stun grenades and tear gas canisters, the Guatemalan military Sunday attacked a caravan of thousands of migrants and refugees that departed Honduras over the weekend, many traveling as families. Videos clearly show the bravery and desperation of the workers and youth lurching into the wall of soldiers as they are brutally beaten. Menacingly, soldiers stood in the background with firearms. Emergency workers reported that dozens were injured, including children, and some had to be transported to the hospital. Migrants from the caravan at the El Florido border between Honduras and Guatemala. (Twitter/Jeff Ernst @jeffgernst) Two months after hurricanes Eta and Iota devastated the region and as the pandemic crisis continues, caravan members explained to the media that they are escaping conditions of absolute destitution. These conditions are accompanied by generalized gang violence, state repression and gross negligence toward the humanitarian catastrophe and COVID-19 pandemic on the part of the US puppet regime of Juan Orlando Hernández in Honduras. Oscar GarcĂa, a banana plantation worker, said to Reuters: “We’re suffering from hunger. It’s impossible to live in Honduras, there’s no work, there’s nothing.” During the repression in Guatemala, another plantation worker, DixĂłn Vázquez, told AFP that the plantation where he worked in Lima was destroyed. “They have no heart,” he said. “We are risking our lives. There are no jobs in Honduras, especially after the two cyclones and the pandemic… Our goal is to reach the United States.” In its latest estimates, UNICEF reported that hurricanes Eta and Iota affected 9.3 million people in total, including 4.66 million in Honduras, and left 294 people dead or missing, 110 of them in Honduras. Thousands of hectares of crops and hundreds of roads and bridges were wiped out. After surviving weeks of almost continuous flooding, landslides and hurricane winds—amid a pandemic that has overwhelmed the already collapsed health care system—millions found themselves stripped of their homes, workplaces, schools, roads, water, electricity and other elements of their basic livelihood. In December, in an earlier attempt, some 500 Hondurans were harassed, threatened and sent back by the Honduran police before reaching the Guatemalan border. The latest caravan departed the northern city of San Pedro Sula on January 14 and January 15 and entered Guatemala through the Florido border crossing in three large groups. A smaller group of about 150 people sought to cross on January 14 in the eastern crossing of Corinto but was detained and returned immediately. On Saturday night, the bulk of the caravan re-grouped at Vado Hondo, Chiquimula, where the barrier of hundreds of troops and police violently stopped them. The Guatemalan immigration authorities reported on Sunday that more than 9,000 people entered the country with the caravan, while 1,383 had already been deported to Honduras. The group at Vado Hondo is composed of about 6,000 migrants and refugees and, as of this writing, remains trapped there.
Biden signs executive order rescinding controversial 1776 Commission - President Biden signed an executive order shortly after his inauguration on Wednesday that rescinded the Trump administration’s controversial 1776 Commission. The order rescinding the commission comes just days after the Trump administration generated widespread backlash following its commission’s release of the 1776 Report, which was written response to The New York Times’s 1619 Project. The report, which was released on Martin Luther King Jr. Day earlier this week, went after critical race theory and pushed back on criticisms that the Founding Fathers were “hypocrites” for defending slavery. “This charge is untrue, and has done enormous damage, especially in recent years, with a devastating effect on our civic unity and social fabric,” the commission wrote in the report. “Many Americans labor under the illusion that slavery was somehow a uniquely American evil,” it continued. “It is essential to insist at the outset that the institution be seen in a much broader perspective,” the commission also wrote. It added that “the unfortunate fact is that the institution of slavery has been more the rule than the exception throughout human history.” The report later stated that “historical revisionism ... tramples honest scholarship and historical truth, shames Americans by highlighting only the sins of their ancestors, and teaches claims of systemic racism that can only be eliminated by more discrimination, is an ideology intended to manipulate opinions more than educate minds.” The commission was chaired by Trump ally Larry Arnn and conservative television analyst Carol Swain. The body also included prominent conservatives such as Charlie Kirk and former Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R). None of them are credentialed historians. The report prompted sharp criticism from historians and civil rights groups upon its release earlier this week. ReNika Moore, director of the ACLU’s Racial Justice Program, accused the Trump administration in a statement of pushing a “white supremacist version” of the country’s history with the report and condemned the document for justifying “slavery as ‘more the rule than the exception throughout human history,’ and [comparing] members of the opposing political party to fascist dictators.” Boston University historian Ibram X. Kendi said the report made it seem as though “those espousing identity politics today resemble proslavery theorists like John C. Calhoun; that since the civil rights movement, Black people have been given 'privileges' and 'preferential treatment' in nearly every sector of society, which is news to Black people.” The Biden-Harris transition team said the commission’s dissolution is one of several measures the new administration will carry out as part of an executive order the president signed on Wednesday afternoon aimed at advancing racial equity in the country.
Biden reverses Trump executive order restricting diversity training -President Biden rescinded an executive order from former President Trump that would have put restrictions on advancing racial equality by limiting diversity training for federal government employees and its contractors. Trump signed the order in September, which took aim at diversity training for government workers by prohibiting the teaching of “divisive concepts.” The order was expected to be reversed under Biden as part of a series of initial measures aimed at undoing a host of the Trump administration’s previous actions. The order applied to the military, federal contractors, and grant recipients. Just after the order was signed, several federal agencies— including the State Department and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) — either halted or cancelled trainings and events on racism and LGBTQ+ equality. The order was also met with legal challenges from civil rights groups who claimed it amounted to overreach. Biden reversed the item as part of a larger executive order he signed aimed at “beginning the work of embedding equity across federal policymaking and rooting out systemic racism and other barriers to opportunity from federal programs and institutions,” according to an administration fact sheet. The order also reversed the controversial 1776 commission, formed in response to The New York Times Magazine’s 1619 project. Racial equality was a hot topic during the 2020 presidential campaign, as it coincided with protests against police brutality in the wake of the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor.
Retired Army general: 'We can't have demonstrators showing up at a state Capitol with damn long guns' - The retired Army general tapped to lead a review of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol said Sunday that rules need to change so protesters can't carry long guns to state Capitols. “We can't have demonstrators showing up at a state Capitol with damn long guns,” Retired Lt. Gen. Russel HonorĂ© said. “Your First Amendment right don't give you the right to carry long guns to a demonstration, and that is confusing the hell out of police and intimidating people. Remember, one of the objectives of a terrorist is to intimidate, if not to cause violent harm.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tapped HonorĂ© on Friday to lead a review of the deadly Capitol riot that will focus on “security infrastructure, interagency processes and procedures, and command and control.” HonorĂ© also said authorities must work to identify "people with terrorist intent" before they arrive at a state Capitol or the U.S. Capitol. Officials have beefed up security in Washington, D.C., and across the country as the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) warn about demonstrations surrounding President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration this week. “The definition of terrorism is people who use violence and intimidation to achieve a political or religious objective,” said HonorĂ© while appearing on "The Sunday Show" with Jonathan Capehart on MSNBC. “We've always worked those tests in the Army I was in, in foreign countries. Now we have to look into it, and that's going to cause some hard work by the Congress and the DOJ to make sure that we're actively working those people with terrorist intent before they show up at the Capitol.” HonorĂ© is best known for serving as commander of Joint Task Force Katrina, which coordinated relief efforts for those affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. There have been multiple investigations launched into how a pro-Trump mob was able to gain access to the U.S. Capitol and pause the counting of Electoral College votes by Congress. At least five people died as a result. The sergeants-at-arms for both the House and Senate, Paul Irving and Michael Stenger, have either resigned or been forced out since the Capitol attack. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund resigned quickly after the breach.
Capitol put on lockdown after fire reported several blocks away - The Capitol complex was briefly locked down on Monday due to an "external security threat," U.S. Capitol Police said, after a fire was reported several blocks away under a nearby bridge. An email alert sent out to lawmakers shortly before 10:30 a.m. said that there was no entry or exit from the complex. Those inside the buildings were instructed to stay away from exterior windows and doors. Those outside were ordered to “seek cover.” The lockdown went into effect as a rehearsal for President-elect Joe Biden’s Wednesday inauguration was underway, forcing people to be evacuated from the Capitol’s West Front and back into the building out of an abundance of caution. Nearby reporters noted that smoke could be seen rising in the distance behind the Capitol. A law enforcement official told NBC News that what turned out to be a fire at a homeless encampment prompted the security alert.
Trump allies, Washington insiders helped plan rallies before Capitol breach: reports -Former members of President Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign were instrumental in organizing the “Save America Rally” on Jan. 6 that took place shortly before a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol, despite claims that the event was created solely by Trump’s supporters, The Associated Press reported Monday. A pro-Trump nonprofit group, Women for America First, obtained a permit from the National Park Service that allowed them to host an event on the Ellipse near the White House. However, the AP reports that more than a half-dozen people listed as staff members for the event had previously worked for the Trump campaign just weeks prior. Other “on-site” staff members also had close ties to the White House, the outlet reported. Trump’s reelection campaign in a statement to the AP said it “did not organize, operate or finance the event,” and denied that any campaign staffers had been involved in organizing and operating the rally. The campaign told the AP that if any former employees or contractors were involved in the rally “they did not do so at the direction of the Trump campaign.” The project manager for the “Save America Rally" is listed as Justin Caporale, a former top aide to first lady Melania Trump. As the AP notes, Caporale is listed as being paid by the Trump campaign for most of 2020, most recently receiving $7,500 every two weeks. Maggie Mulvaney, niece of former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, and major GOP fundraiser Caroline Wren are both listed on the permit as well in “VIP" positions. Both Maggie Mulvaney and Wren blocked AP reporters who attempted to contact them on Twitter. Mick Mulvaney, who most recently served as the special envoy to Northern Ireland, resigned from his post one day after the deadly Capitol breach. “You can’t look at that yesterday and say I want to be a part of that in any way shape or form," he told CNBC when announcing his departure. One Trump campaign director, Megan Powers, and at least three campaign aides were named on the permit, the AP reports. A LinkedIn account for Powers indicated that she had worked for Trump’s campaign as recently as this month. None of the staffers listed on the permit spoke to the AP, and many reportedly shut down their social media accounts. Trump and his allies have faced major blowback following the Capitol riot. One week after the riot, Trump was impeached by the House, becoming the first U.S. president to ever be impeached twice. Democratic lawmakers have also called for Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) to resign or be impeached for their objections to certifying the election results.
Paid aides to Trump campaign played key roles in organizing fascist assault on US Capitol - A recent analysis conducted by the Associated Press (AP) confirms that high-level operatives within the Republican Party and President Donald Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign organized the fascist rabble outside the White House for the “Save America Rally,” who would then go on to storm the Capitol in an attempt to overthrow the election and install a presidential dictatorship. The AP wrote: “A pro-Trump nonprofit group called Women for America First hosted the ‘Save America Rally’ on Jan. 6 at the Ellipse, an oval-shaped, federally owned patch of land near the White House. But an attachment to the National Park Service public gathering permit granted to the group lists more than half a dozen people in staff positions for the event who just weeks earlier had been paid thousands of dollars by Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign. Other staff scheduled to be ‘on site’ during the demonstration have close ties to the White House.” In their report the AP noted that they “reviewed social media posts, voter registrations, court files and other public records for more than 120 people either facing criminal charges related to the Jan. 6 unrest or who, going maskless during the pandemic, were later identified through photographs and videos taken during the melee. “The review found the crowd was overwhelmingly made up of longtime Trump supporters, including Republican Party officials, GOP political donors, far-right militants, white supremacists, off-duty police, members of the military and adherents of the QAnon myth that the government is secretly controlled by a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophile cannibals.” Despite the public reporting which confirms that several people with direct connections to either Trump himself or the Trump campaign were responsible for inciting and organizing the coup, not a single Democrat has drawn attention to this report, much less called for immediate public investigations and the arrest of the ringleaders. Taking their cue from the Democrats and President-elect Joe Biden, the corporate media has likewise buried the story with the major networks' Monday night news broadcasts omitting this startling report.
The Zeitgeist Wants What the Zeitgeist Wants --Kunstler - The hypothetical Biden Administration is shaping up to be something like a four-year-long sĂ©ance, a conjuring of apparitions wailing out talking points in a darkened room. The actual location of the inaugural event remains a mystery, or even if it will be an event, maybe just a pre-recorded video concoction of Mr. Biden’s greatest hits of 2020. Check and see if he’s wearing the same necktie from beginning to end. If a hologram is inaugurated, does that make the land-mass between Montauk and Santa Barbara a post-structural figment? The “president-elect,” made an ectoplasmic appearance Sunday talking up “science,” the Democrat’s mental life-preserver, and then shuffled offstage in an apparent fog of confusion as the Ritalin wore off. He’ll be great in the war room, I’m sure.The mystery surrounding DNI John Ratcliffe’s long overdue report on foreign interference in the election cleared up only a little with the release of a letter sent January 8th to the Senate Intelligence Committee. In it, citing a side report from Intel Community Ombudsman Barry Zulauf, Mr. Ratcliffe refers to “undue pressure being brought to bear” on analysts by CIA management to craft their conclusions according to political loyalties. In other words, once again the CIA appears to be playing games with the American people and can’t be trusted. Isn’t that reassuring?Meanwhile, The New York Times, CNN, and MSNBC have turned into a nonstop gloat-fest anticipating the punishments to be dished out by progressive Wokesterdom against anyone who ever entertained a thought about or uttered the phrase “stolen election.” They can kiss their livelihoods goodbye. Their college degrees will be revoked by such bastions of free thinking as Harvard. Their websites will be liquidated. Senators and congresspersons must be thrown out of their seats. They’ll be reduced to squatting on filthy blankets at the entrance of the Walmart begging for spare change, or hauled off to re-education camps where NPR lawyers with riding crops preside over their therapeutic struggle sessions, beating the wrongthink out of their hides. For Democrats, vengeance is a dish to be served piping hot. Would you like flies with your shit sandwich?
Trump planned to oust acting AG to overturn Georgia election results: report - Former President Trump sought to oust his acting attorney general in a bid to overturn the presidential election results in Georgia, according to a new bombshell report in The New York Times. Trump reportedly planned to replace then-acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen with Jeffrey Clark, a lawyer at the Justice Department, in an effort to apply pressure to Georgia politicians to overturn the results of the race there. Rosen had refused to back Trump’s disputed claims that voter fraud had cost him the election, drawing the president’s ire. Trump had also pressed Rosen to appoint special counsels to investigate what he said were irregularities in the election, though he never provided any evidence for his claims. Among the investigations he wanted launched was one into Dominion Voting Systems, a company that made the election equipment Trump’s backers falsely said had ties with Venezuela to prevent Trump’s reelection. The plot failed after a group of Department of Justice (DOJ) officials uncovered the plan and threatened to resign en masse if Trump and Clark followed through with it. Rosen stayed in his position for the remainder of the administration.The Times’s report was based on four former Trump administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation. Clark told the Times that the account was false, though he did not say what specifically the officials were mistaken about.
Barr told Trump that theories about stolen election were 'bulls---': report -- Former Attorney General William Barr reportedly pushed back strongly on President Trump when discussing claims the president was circulating about the election being "stolen" from him. Barr, during a meeting with Trump at the White House in early December, told the president that such theories of a stolen election were "bullshit," Axios reported Monday. Other aides in the room, including White House counsel Pat Cipollone, were reportedly surprised that the attorney general had made the comment, though did not disagree with his remarks. The meeting came as Barr had publicly undercut the president's baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud, telling The Associated Press that the Justice Department had not uncovered evidence to back up the claims. "To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election," Barr had told the AP in the interview. Trump reportedly confronted Barr about his comments while in the private dining room next to the Oval Office. "Why would you say such a thing? You must hate Trump. There’s no other reason for it. You must hate Trump,” the president asserted, according to Axios. Barr responded that "these things aren't panning out" and "the stuff that these people are filling your ear with just isn’t true," Axios reported. The attorney general reportedly emphasized that the DOJ had reviewed the major claims put forward by the president's lawyers. Trump announced almost two weeks later, on Dec. 14, that Barr would step down from his position in the Trump administration, leaving roughly a month before President-elect Joe Biden would enter office. Trump praised Barr for doing an "outstanding job" and said they had a "very good" relationship.
Talk radio company orders hosts to stop suggesting election was stolen from Trump - A talk radio company that employs some of the nation’s most popular conservative radio hosts has issued a memo barring talent from spreading conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election. “We need to help induce national calm NOW,” wrote an executive with Cumulus Media in a Wednesday directive, the same day as the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob, according to The Washington Post. Brian Philips, the company’s executive vice president, went on to say Cumulus and its program syndication branch, Westwood One, “will not tolerate any suggestion that the election has not ended. The election has been resolved and there are no alternate acceptable ‘paths’. ” “If you transgress this policy, you can expect to separate from the company immediately,” he added. Cumulus hosts include Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro and Dan Bongino. Rush Limbaugh, who is broadcast on numerous Cumulus stations but syndicated by Premiere Networks, is not subject to the directive. It remains to be seen whether hosts like Levin who have built a strong personal brand will abide by the memo and whether Cumulus would be willing to take major disciplinary action if they do not. As recently as Thursday, a day after the riot, Levin seemingly denied responsibility for inciting the unrest, saying: “I’m not stirring up a damn thing. Everything I say is based on principle and mission. Everything is based on liberty, family, faith, the Constitution. ... My enemies and my critics can’t say the same.”
GOP senators wrestle with purging Trump from party - Republican senators are wrestling over what they want their party’s future relationship with Donald Trump to be after he leaves office on Wednesday. Faced with a deeply divided Senate Republican Conference, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is giving his colleagues free rein to vote their conscience when the Senate tries Trump on charges that he incited an insurrection. McConnell is telling colleagues that he himself hasn’t decided whether to vote to convict Trump on a House-passed article of impeachment and associates describe the GOP leader “as furious” over that attack on the Capitol by a pro-Trump mob. The New York Times reported that McConnell has told associates that he sees the impeachment effort as a way for the Republican Party to break with Trump, although the GOP leader later discounted what he called “speculation” in the press. A Senate vote to convict Trump would need at least 17 Republican votes to be successful, if all 50 Democratic senators vote to convict. A second vote could be held to prevent Trump from running for office again. That would require a simple Senate majority. While a good number of Republican senators would like to break free of what they see as the destabilizing and often erratic leadership of Trump, Republican strategists and aides warn there is a serious political risk to banning him from future political office. “I don’t think it’s an easy call, but I think there would be a lot more Republican support evident if it were not linked to the Democrats’ clear desire to prevent him from running for office ever again,” said Vin Weber, a Republican strategist. “That’s the real question politically. “A lot of people in both parties who want Trump just gone think, ‘That’s good, we’ll just get rid of Trump. He can’t run again,’ ” he added. But he cautioned the “hardcore Trump people, which probably means a majority of the Republican voters, still view Trump as their leader [and] they view the election as stolen.” “If we take the step of banning Trump from running again, they’re not going to say anything’s been stolen. They’re simply going to say the power structure of the country has prevented our leader from running again and they’ll be right,” he added. “You’ve created an impossible situation in terms of trying to soften the divisions a little bit in the country and soften the vote on the hardcore pro-Trump side.” Some Republicans are already using that as a justification to oppose impeachment. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), an influential member of the Senate GOP conference who led the effort to put together a Republican police reform bill last year, warned that impeaching Trump would undercut efforts to promote national unity after the strife of 2020. “An impeachment vote will only lead to more hate and a deeply fractured nation,” he said, arguing that convicting Trump would “fly in direct opposition to what President-elect Joe Biden has been calling for all year.” At the same time, outrage has mounted within the Senate Republican Conference as new details about last week’s attack on Congress emerge. Federal prosecutors said in a court filing Friday that they had “strong evidence” the rioters who breached the Capitol intended “to capture and assassinate elected officials,” including Vice President Pence. That revelation sparked outrage from Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), an influential conservative who may run for president in 2024. “These men weren’t drunks who got rowdy — they were terrorists attacking this country’s constitutionally-mandated transfer of power. They failed, but they came dangerously close to starting a bloody constitutional crisis. They must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” Sasse said in a statement.
AOC slams Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg for Capitol riot --In a battle of social media superstars, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez slammed Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for what she said was his role in fomenting the Jan. 6 riot at Capitol Hill. “He is part of this problem,” the Democrat said at anonline town hall meeting Friday with Bronx and Queens constituents. “And Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook bear partial responsibility for Wednesday’s events, period.”The social media magnate, she said, has coddled white supremacist groups on Facebook — and even, she charged, attended “dinner parties with white supremacist sympathizers.” “They specifically treated this type of radicalization differently, aka with kid gloves,” AOC said, pointing to her contentious exchange with Zuckerberg in a congressional hearing in 2019. “I asked him specifically about disinformation related to the election … and the link between that disinformation and white supremacist ties,” she said. “We saw what was coming for a long time.” Ocasio-Cortez has claimed for months that Facebook’s use of the conservative news outlet the Daily Caller in its fact-checking efforts is evidence of Zuckerberg’s sympathy toward white supremacists.
Democrats promote “white privilege” fiction to block united working class response to fascist coup plot - Within hours of the storming of the US Capitol by fascistic supporters of President Donald Trump on January 6, the Democratic Party and allied corporate media began pumping out statements framing the attempted coup entirely in racial terms. Spearheaded by President-elect Joe Biden and other Democratic politicians, and amplified by the New York Times, the Washington Post, major television networks and nominally “left” online publications aligned with the Democrats, the flood of racialist commentary has continued unabated. On January 11, Hillary Clinton published one of the most reactionary examples of this genre on the website of the Washington Post. Squarely placing the blame for the fascist coup attempt on “white people,” she wrote that the storming of the Capitol was “the tragically predictable result of white-supremacist grievances fueled by President Trump.” Clinton went on to demand the removal of “white supremacy” and “extremism” from America, making an implicit amalgam between the fascistic right and left-wing opponents of capitalism. She called for increased internet censorship and new state and federal criminal laws to track “the activities of extremists.” In an op-ed piece published January 13, headlined “White Riot,” New York Times columnist Thomas B. Edsall made more explicit the central theme of such racialist propaganda: it is white workers who are the main bulwark of racism. Using a standard journalistic euphemism for white workers—“non-college white Americans”—Edsall wrote: There is evidence that many non-college white Americans who have been undergoing what psychiatrists call “involuntary subordination” or “involuntary defeat” both resent and mourn their loss of centrality and what they perceive as their growing invisibility. The racialist interpretation of the coup attempt is part of a broader effort to conceal its connection to the herd immunity policies of the ruling class. Both big business parties and the corporate media are silent on the fact that the fascistic rallies last spring and summer at state capitols across the country were organized around the demand to lift all restrictions on businesses that had been imposed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Blaming the January 6 coup attempt on “white privilege” obscures the fact that the far-right movement that culminated in the attempt to kidnap and kill lawmakers in order to block the inauguration of Biden originated in a movement of enraged small businessmen and backward workers whose demands coincided with the policy of the corporate-financial oligarchy to let the pandemic rip. In promoting this racialist libel against the working class, its proponents seize on the contrast between the generally supportive treatment of the pro-Trump insurrectionists by the police and the brutal repression meted out to anti-police violence protesters last spring and summer. This is to be explained, they claim, not by the far-right politics of the pro-Trump mob, widely supported by the police, but by the rioters’ skin color—overwhelmingly white.
GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert and husband racked up arrests in home district - Rep. Lauren Boebert, the gun-toting freshman Republican Colorado congresswoman who ran on a law-and-order platform, has had several dust-ups with police, starting as a teenager.The 34-year-old lawmaker, who beat her district’s very conservative Rep. Scott Tipton in a primary upset last June, has a rap sheet unusually long for a member of Congress.And her track record of thumbing her nose at the law continued this week after she tussled with Capitol Police officers over her refusal to walk through newly installed House metal detectors.“I am legally permitted to carry my firearm in Washington, DC, and within the Capitol complex,”she tweeted in defiance, while calling the detectors “another political stunt by Speaker Pelosi.”While the lawmaker was eventually allowed to enter the House chambers, she is facing growing questions about her possible role in assisting the deadly Jan. 6 riot on Capitol Hill. Just hours before the violence, she tweeted, “today is 1776.” In the days leading up to the unrest, Boebert made a spectacle of her intention to remain armed in the Capitol,earning another rebuke from local law enforcement.
U.S. charges Texas man with threatening to 'assassinate' Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (Reuters) - The Justice Department revealed charges this week against a Texas man who allegedly stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 and threatened on social media to kill U.S. Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Prosecutors asked a judge on Friday to keep the man, Garret Miller, in jail ahead of a court appearance, according to court records. They revealed five criminal charges in the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia against Miller on Wednesday, including for making death threats and trespassing offenses. Images of social media posts allegedly authored by Miller, which appear to announce his trip to the Capitol and threaten the life of Ocasio-Cortez as well as a Capitol Police officer, are cited in the court filing. As rioters broke into the Capitol, Ocasio-Cortez worried that her colleagues in Congress might divulge her location to the mob, putting her at risk for kidnapping or worse, according to an Instagram Live video she recorded on Jan. 12. Ocasio-Cortez also said she experienced “a very close encounter where I thought I was going to die” on Jan. 6, adding that she could not get into specifics for security reasons, according to a Washington Post account of the video. “I did not know if I was going to make it to the end of that day alive.”
Trump preparing another 100 pardons, commutations before leaving office: reports - President Trump is reportedly prepared to issue around 100 pardons and commutations on Tuesday, his final full day in office.CNN first reported that the new batch of clemency actions will include white-collar criminals, high-profile rappers and others. It will likely include some pardons aimed at advocating for criminal justice reform, as well as controversial pardons for political allies. Trump met Sunday with his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, daughter Ivanka Trump and other aides to review a long list of pardon requests, The Washington Post reported. Pardon-seekers and those lobbying on their behalf have reportedly paid allies of Trump tens of thousands of dollars to press the president to grant clemency. "Everything is a transaction. He likes pardons because it is unilateral. And he likes doing favors for people he thinks will owe him," one source familiar with the matter told CNN. The list of potential pardons, however, does not currently include Trump himself. Trump has reportedly floated the idea of issuing pardons for himself and members of his family for months, while Democrats have long threatened to pursue investigations of the president's personal finances that could potentially lead to criminal charges once he leaves office. He was impeached by the House last week for a second time on the charge of inciting violence at the Capitol that resulted in five deaths. Ten Republicans in the House supported the impeachment effort. The Senate trial is slated to begin after he leaves office.
Trump pardons Bannon, grants clemency to reactionaries and criminals - President Donald Trump ended his presidency by granting clemency to 144 individuals, including one of his top fascist advisers, Stephen Bannon. On his way out of the White House, Trump issued 74 pardons and commuted the sentences of 70 others.While there were a number of pardons and commutations for those convicted of low-level drug and weapons offenses, the vast bulk were reserved for convicted felons who had ties to Trump and were previously found guilty of evading or falsifying taxes, money laundering, insider trading or defrauding the US government.Despite much speculation, Trump did not preemptively pardon himself, members of his family or those in the Trump organization. His lawyers advised against pardoning himself in light of the upcoming impeachment trial in the Senate, arguing that a self-pardon could give the appearance of guilt.Now that he is a private citizen, Trump is also expected to face numerous lawsuits, civil and possibly criminal, in state courts, which will not be covered by a federal pardon. His legal advisers argued that a self-pardon could negatively impact his defense.Topping the list of notable criminals to receive a pardon is former chief strategist and senior White House counselor Stephen Bannon. Prior to becoming CEO of Trump’s 2016 election campaign, Bannon served as the executive chairman of Breitbart News, which, under his leadership, became the leading hate rag for the “alt-right.”Bannon’s fascistic politics were welcomed on the campaign trail and in the White House. Through the slogan “America First,” Trump and Bannon articulated an ultranationalist, anti-immigrant, anti-Chinese, pseudo-populist message claiming to defend the interests of American workers by pitting them against their class brothers and sisters in Mexico, China and elsewhere around the world.Bannon was forced out of his White House post after seven months during the fallout from the fascist “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in August 2017. There is speculation that it was Bannon who suggested that Trump say “there were fine people on both sides,” following the murder of antiracist activist Heather Heyer.According to anonymous insiders cited by CNN and the Washington Post, there was considerable debate within the White House over the pardoning of Bannon, particularly in light of his role in the January 6 storming of the US Capitol. While legal advisers advised against a pardon, Trump, with an eye toward his continuing goal of building an American fascist movement, overrode their recommendations and granted the pardon. That Trump’s decision to pardon Bannon was motivated above all by political considerations is underscored by his final public statements. Trump ended a video address aired Tuesday night by declaring, “The movement we started is only just beginning.” This was followed by remarks at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday morning, where he closed out his speech with a menacing, “We will see you soon.”
Parler is back online with message to 'lovers and haters' - The website for Parler, the conservative-friendly social media platform, was back online on Sunday — with a message for the company’s “lovers and haters.”“Hello world, is this thing on?” Parler CEO John Matze wrote on the website, above a note from the company saying the platform would be restored after challenges were resolved.“Now seems like the right time to remind you all — both lovers and haters — why we started this platform,” the note read.“We believe privacy is paramount and free speech essential, especially on social media. Our aim has always been to provide a nonpartisan public square where individuals can enjoy and exercise their rights to both.”Amazon Web Services suspended Parler from its servers last Sunday, in the wake of the deadly US Capitol riot, effectively taking the website offline unless it found a new co mpany to host its services. The company filed a lawsuit Monday accusing Amazon of breach of contract and violating an antitrust law over the tech titan’s decision to stop hosting the site. In response, Amazon said it repeatedly warned Parler about its users’ violent posts and that the company failed to promptly remove them.
QAnon followers struggle to explain Biden inauguration - President Biden's swearing-in as the nation's 46th president has punctured the hopes of some QAnon followers who pushed the conspiracy theory that claimed former President Trump would remain in office and arrest top Democrats on Wednesday. Users across multiple forums and chat rooms spent the morning spinning up new theories about how Jan. 20, dubbed the “Great Awakening” by supporters, would still turn out as the theory had predicted. As Trump left the White House for a final time, one post shared on a forum backing the president suggested that he was getting into Air Force One for his own safety — instead of to leave for Florida for his first post-presidency travel. A user on another forum dedicated to the "awakening" claimed that the 17 flags onstage as Trump gave his farewell were a coded message, since "Q" — the mysterious figure who posts cryptic messages that serve as the theory's foundation — is the 17th letter of the alphabet. “I don’t know how many signs has to be given to us before we ‘trust the plan,’ ” another user commented. But as Biden’s inauguration continued without incident, the realization that the theory was failing to come to fruition began to set in for some of QAnon’s most ardent supporters. Ron Watkins, a former administrator of 8kun, wrote on Telegram that “we gave it our all.” “Now we need to keep our chins up and go back to our lives as best we are able,” he wrote to the 120,000 users subscribed to his channel. Watkins’s former platform hosts posts by "Q," the anonymous figure behind the theory. Another large QAnon group on Telegram closed commenting to give users “a breather” after Biden’s swearing-in ceremony on Wednesday. “Q was a LARP the entire f---ing time,” one forum user wrote moments after the inauguration, referring to live-action role playing games. One 8kun user lamented that they “thought things would finally change and the deep state would be exposed” on Wednesday. “Please, I just can't anymore,” they added. A large swath of QAnon followers still appeared to be on board with the theory despite Biden’s inauguration, and the community has continued to grow despite previous predictions not coming to fruition. One of the top posts on a popular forum spun the narrative that a “Q drop” from October predicted that the transfer of power had to go through for Trump’s supposed plan to purge alleged child sex traffickers from government to be successful. Many QAnon followers have also celebrated reports that Trump is considering launching a political party, dubbed the "Patriot Party," as an alternative to the GOP.
Pelosi To Deliver Impeachment Articles To Senate On Monday - While the left is split between wanting to hammer the final nail in Trump's coffin (through the Senate impeachment trial) and tending to its aggressive agenda of new laws, spending, and government control, U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) issued a statement today regarding his proposed timeline for the first phases of an impeachment trial of former president Trump. Specifically, Leader McConnell shared the following proposed pre-trial timeline with the Republican Conference today:When the articles arrive, the House Managers would exhibit (read) the articles to the Senate, Senators would be sworn in the Members as the Court of Impeachment, and would issue a summons to former President Trump. While we do not know what day the Managers will choose, Leader McConnell has asked for this to occur on Thursday, January 28. Senate Democrat Leader Schumer has just confirmed that House Speaker Pelosi will deliver the Trump impeachment resolution to the Senate on Monday 26th January. This is slightly ahead of McConnell's plan - which had hoped for delivery on January 28th - but as far as the rest of the timeline is concerned, there is no apparent change yet. The apparent rush seems to signal that Democrats are more keen to stop Trump from ever being able to run for office again than they are for providing stimulus to Americans?
Trump is becoming an 'untouchable client.' Here's how law firms are turning on the president, from calling for his removal to dumping his business. -For months, the lawyers and law firms representing President Donald Trump in efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 election came under an intense wave of scrutiny uncommon for a profession whose members so often flock to the highest paying client rather than taking any stance on politics. Lawyers at Jones Day, Porter Wright and Snell & Wilmer may not have worn MAGA hats, but they were still targeted online and by protesters in the street. Now, in the wake of the January 6 assault on Congress by a mob of Trump's supporters, many law firms are taking public stands against the president and his allies. While lawyers in Big Law firms have historically been big donors to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, it is rare for them to take organized, public stands on such matters. For Richard Kendall of Los Angeles-based boutique Kendall Brill & Kelly, one of more than two dozen law-firm leaders to have signed a letter calling for Trump's removal, it was an easy call. "I think lawyers, who are trained to analyze facts and shine the light on lies and frivolous arguments, should speak out when they see outright falsehoods and manipulative propaganda being served up as fact in the halls of Congress by unscrupulous lawyer-politicians who seek to delegitimize a free and fair election," he said. Theodore Boutrous, a litigator at Gibson Dunn who has also sounded off against Trump, told Insider that he hasn't been politically outspoken through his career, but what he observed of his fellow lawyers over the past two months made him speak out. "For a firm to be associated with bad faith, frivolous assaults on the election process in our democracy, that just can't be tolerated," said Boutrous. "Frivolous litigation is a terrible thing in any situation, but here where it was being used to try to undermine the public's faith in the election process is simply outrageous." Boutrous has represented CNN and Jim Acosta in litigation against the Trump Administration for revoking Acosta's press pass, and Mary Trump in her publication of "Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man."
BankUnited added to list of banks ending ties with Trump - BankUnited is the latest financial firm that said it has stopped working with former President Donald Trump. "We never had a lending relationship with Donald Trump and we no longer have any depository relationship with him," a spokesperson wrote Thursday in an email. The Miami Lakes, Fla.-based bank was listed in Trump's most recent financial disclosure form as having two of his money-market accounts, holding a total of more than $5.1 million. At least three other banks have cut ties with Trump since the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol that the former president is accused of encouraging: Deutsche Bank, Signature Bank and Professional Bank. BankUnited didn't give a reason for the end of the relationship.
Biden team lays groundwork to reverse Trump-era banking policies — The Biden administration appears to be wasting no time attempting to unravel Trump-era financial policies. The new president has not been in office for more than two days, and already the White House has selected regulatory nominees for key vacancies with progressive records, and urged executive-branch agencies to pause rulemakings yet to go into effect. Observers say the speed and breadth of activity suggests President Biden's transition team prepared in advance to name agency appointees that could be installed quickly. They see the early moves as a sign that the administration will try to unwind Trump-era polices ranging from the Office of the Comptroller's fair-access rule and Community Reinvestment Act reforms, to deregulatory actions carried out by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “It’s a feature, not a bug, that the Biden administration is acting quickly,” said Jeremy Kress, assistant professor of business law at the University of Michigan. “The transition is clearly very organized and efficient, and it shows — they knew what they wanted to achieve by Inauguration Day.” Observers say the speed and breadth of activity suggests President Biden's transition team prepared in advance to name agency appointees that could be installed quickly.Bloomberg NewsEven before Biden was inaugurated, the administration's choice to lead the CFPB, Rohit Chopra, was reported. Late Wednesday, news outlets said the White House similarly was expected to nominate Michael Barr, a former Obama Treasury Department official, to run the OCC, and the administration announced Dave Uejio as acting CFPB director following the resignation of Kathy Kraninger. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, just hours after Biden was inaugurated, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain issued a memo addressed to the heads of the government’s executive departments and agencies ordering a “freeze” of any pending regulation. ”With respect to rules that have been sent to the [Office of the Federal Register] but not published in the Federal Register, immediately withdraw them from the OFR for review and approval,” Klain wrote in the memo, dated Jan. 20. Some legal experts believe the memo will not apply to federal bank regulators that largely operate without interference from the White House. “How I read it is that the executive order applies only to executive agencies, and not to independent agencies,” said Meg Tahyar, co-head of the financial institutions group at Davis Polk & Wardwell. The OCC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve Board and the CFPB "are all independent agencies,” she noted. But other analysts said the memo could still have softer influence, compelling agencies led by Trump appointees to consider suspending rules that have not gone into effect. “It certainly will indirectly apply to the agencies because they generally do their best to adhere to OMB standards, even though they are not covered by them,” said Karen Petrou, managing director at Federal Financial Analytics.
Biden expected to nominate ex-Treasury official Barr to lead OCC - President Biden is expected to tap an Obama-era Treasury Department official to lead the agency that oversees Wall Street’s biggest banks, according to people with knowledge of the decision. Michael Barr, who helped write the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act while serving under Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, will likely be nominated to run the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said the people, who requested anonymity because the White House hasn’t announced its choice. The OCC regulates and supervises the national banking operations of lenders including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Barr didn’t respond to requests for comment. White House officials declined to comment. The new OCC chief will be in a unique position to lead Biden’s banking agenda, because the other two U.S. bank regulators — the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — will continue to be run by former President Trump’s appointees, Jerome Powell at the Fed and Jelena McWilliams at the FDIC. Barr’s expected nomination was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal. Barr, who is now dean of the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, would represent a sharp turn from the banking industry insiders who led the OCC during Trump’s administration. He would be taking over an agency that was at the center of Trump’s efforts to dial back post-crisis rules and one that has drawn attention in recent years for pushing a series of controversial initiatives. One such measure is a “fair access” rule finalized last week that would bar banks from refusing to serve businesses that they think might harm their reputations, such as gun manufacturers and oil drillers. Trump’s acting comptroller, Brian Brooks, issued the rule just before he stepped down despite strong opposition from Wall Street banks, consumer groups and key Democratic lawmakers.
BankThink OCC’s fair-access rule is anything but fair - In his last day at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks finalized a rule requiring the largest national banks to provide loans to politically controversial but lawful businesses. The OCC’s so-called fair-access rule is under the guise of increasing credit access to unfavored sectors like gun businesses. However, it actually prevents banks from assessing and mitigating the various types of risks inherent to making loans to contentious industries including private prisons and fossil fuel companies. The rule also undermines the very spirit of longstanding, anti-discrimination banking laws. As co-founder of a nonprofit-owned bank, along with a leader of that nonprofit, we find the rule a gross distortion of fair access and fair treatment laws — both of which are intended to help those who have been excluded due to longstanding discrimination and persecution. Discrimination in lending occurs when financial institutions deny a loan based on the applicant’s race, gender or other protected status. In a joint comment letter submitted to the OCC, we argued that the ill-considered mandate cynically reinterprets fair lending to require big banks to turn a blind eye to excessive risk and businesses that harm vulnerable communities. First, the existing fair-lending rules are intended to protect individual consumers (people), not corporations. Second, if the spirit of fair lending is to ensure disadvantaged people are not being discriminated against, then affording the same protections to entire industries that harm those very same people is especially cynical and abusive. Take the fossil fuel industry. In the four years following the signing of the Paris Agreement, it is estimated that globally banks financed fossil fuel companies to the tune of $2.7 trillion, with big U.S. banks the largest contributors by far. Any comparison between redlining (denying homeownership based on race and/or other protected class) and banks halting Arctic drilling financing is offensive. This proposal’s very use of the term redlining serves only to dilute and delay genuine progress against truly unfair historical lending practices in the banking industry. Since the proposal was floated in late 2020, financial institutions, bank industry associations, policy leaders and advocates for economic well-being have been scrambling to respond to these purposely misleading interpretations of fundamental concepts like fair access and discrimination in lending — all while trying to address immediate crises facing Americans. During a time of increased economic instability and insecurity heightened by the coronavirus pandemic, regulators should focus on protecting people interacting in the financial marketplace through honest guidance. Rather than rush through burdensome regulations, let’s work together to advance truly fair lending and access to credit for people who need it most.
Biden picks FTC’s Chopra as CFPB chief, Gensler as SEC chairman - President-elect Joe Biden has picked a pair of veteran regulators strongly backed by progressive Democrats to lead two key Wall Street watchdogs, signaling that his administration is planning tough oversight after four years of light-touch policies under appointees of President Trump. Former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler will be nominated to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Trade Commission member Rohit Chopra is being tapped to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Biden’s transition team said Monday. “Our administration will hit the ground running to deliver immediate, urgent relief to Americans; confront the overlapping crises of COVID-19, the historic economic downturn, systemic racism and inequality, and the climate crisis; and get this government working for the people it serves,” Biden said in a statement to Bloomberg News. “These tireless public servants will be a key part of our agenda to build back better — and I am confident they will help make meaningful change and move our country forward.” The selections follow weeks of intra-party wrangling over the financial regulation posts between moderate Democrats and those on the party’s left wing who want to see a sharp departure from business-friendly policies advanced during the Trump administration. They are bad news for the banking industry, which has been bracing for the prospect of stiffer rules since Biden was elected in November. Gensler, 63, is a former Goldman Sachs Group partner who gained a reputation as a Wall Street scourge when he engaged in bruising battles while advancing derivatives regulation at the CFTC during the Obama administration. Chopra, 38, is an acolyte of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren who helped her set up the CFPB before she ran for office. Both nominees will be subject to Senate confirmation, and the SEC and CFPB are likely to be under interim leaders until that process is completed.
Wall Street Fears Gary Gensler Because He Knows Too Much - Pam Martens - Last Tuesday, Wall Street was stewing over the Reuters report that President-Elect Joe Biden was likely to name Gary Gensler, the former Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as the new Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The CFTC oversees the futures market. The SEC oversees the trading of stocks; the stock exchanges; the broker-dealers and investment banks that underwrite and trade stocks; and how all of these firms interact with investors. The SEC also oversees Wall Street’s dubious Dark Pools – which Wall Street On Parade has challenged as engaging in potentially illegal behavior.By Friday, January 15, Wall Street’s banks ended in a sea of red with Citigroup losing a whopping 6.93 percent on the day. All of the mega banks posted losses far exceeding the meager 0.57 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday.Yesterday, the Biden team confirmed Gensler’s nomination to the post.Gensler chaired the CFTC from May 26, 2009 to January 3, 2014. Gensler had previously served as a Senior Advisor to Senator Paul Sarbanes in writing the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. That legislation imposed criminal penalties, including prison time, if CEOs and CFOs knowingly sign off on financial statements they know to be false. Wall Street has never forgiven Gensler for that. Thus, Gensler is now a Professor at MIT Sloan School of Management rather than serving in a cushy job on Wall Street.Gensler also served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Clinton Administration. He earned his undergraduate degree in economics in 1978 and his MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1979. Gensler’s Chairmanship of the SEC would bring to an end a 7-year run of Wall Street’s lawyers running the SEC, under both President Obama and President Trump. (See hereand here.) Wall Street also dislikes Gensler because he has an institutional command of the lurking risks and he likes to speak the truth before investigative bodies and to the general public.
Yellen’s banking agenda: Confront climate risks, launch AML registry — Limiting the impact of climate change on the financial system and launching a registry of startup companies to combat money-laundering risks are both key priorities for the incoming Biden administration, according to the nominee for Treasury secretary. Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee that she plans to create a special unit within Treasury to examine risks that climate change poses to the nation's banks and other financial companies. “I will look to appoint someone at a very senior level to lead our efforts and to create a hub within Treasury in which we particularly focus on financial system related risks and tax policy incentives toward climate change,” Yellen said at her nomination hearing Tuesday. “I think we need to seriously look at assessing the risks to the financial system from climate change.” Yellen was responding to questions from Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., who noted that there “is no specific office” within the Treasury Department aimed at addressing the risks of climate change. Whitehouse also pressed Yellen on the potential impacts of climate change on the housing market. “Another serious matter is Freddie Mac warning of a coastal property values crash around the country because of climate- change-driven sea level rise,” Whitehouse said. “I think we should take these risks very, very seriously,” Yellen responded. “I think climate change is an existential threat and both the impact of climate change itself and policies to address it could have major impacts, creating stranded assets, generating large changes in asset prices, credit risks, and so forth that could affect the financial system.” Yellen also lauded Congress for passing reforms to the U.S. anti-money-laundering system, which the Treasury Department oversees through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. In a recent defense spending bill, Congress enacted a measure requiring companies to disclose their true owners to Fincen when they go through the process of incorporation. The legislation was partly intended to ease burdens on banks, which up to now have been responsible for identifying and reporting their customers’ beneficial owners. “I want to thank you and Congress for passing a law that will enable us to identify beneficial ownership of shell corporations and really make a big, big difference in our ability to address terrorist financing,” Yellen said. Yellen said that she plans to implement the AML provision of the National Defense Authorization Act quickly, launching a database of companies' beneficial ownership information. “This is a very important problem and that the Act that was recently passed by Congress gives us an enormously potent tool to address this problem,” Yellen said. “We will try to get up and running as quickly as possible and devote ourselves to building that database so we can address these issues and will certainly be looking to give this a very high priority.”
Biden's plans for payday loans and crypto take shape - With Joe Biden returning to the White House to become the 46th president of the U.S., his agenda for financial regulation is already moving ahead, based on the people he's chosen to put in key roles.Biden's nominations of Rohit Chopra to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Gary Gensler to head the Securities and Exchange Commission place two consumer advocates in prime spots to reverse outgoing President Donald Trump's deregulation while beefing up oversight of cryptocurrency and payday lending. Chopra, a commissioner at the Federal Trade Commission, used to be the assistant director of the CFPB, and helped found the bureau championed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Biden also nominated Gensler, the former chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to be chair of the SEC. Both Chopra and Gensler have careers in government that tie them to the Obama-era reforms and regulations that followed the 2008 banking crisis. As a Warren ally, Chopra will face one of the more contentious Biden cabinet confirmation hearings, but the Democratic victories in Georgia's runoffs make his path to the CFPB's top job relatively easier. Also, Chopra was already confirmed to his current post at the FTC and can serve at the CFPB on an interim basis. More financial services regulation is certain to come as a result of the 2020 election, but the ease of the confirmation hearings will go a long way toward determining how aggressive the Biden administration can be. The CFPB was heavily deregulated during the Trump years, with the Republican administration getting a key Supreme Court victory giving the White House more oversight over the CFPB's management. The Trump administration also rolled back payday lending regulations designed to protect borrowers from taking on debt they could not pay.Writing for PaymentsSource, Christopher Peterson, financial services director of the Consumer Federation of America, argued the payday loan reversal was harmful to consumers, calling for curbs on interest rates. Additionally, companies that offer early access to wages have become popular during the pandemic and subsequent financial crisis, and address many of the same financial stresses among consumers that often lead to payday lenders, providing a potential alternative to payday lending. Venture capital has flowed to early wage access companies in anticipation of the trend becoming permanent.
Blockbuster Lawsuit Targets Deutsche Bank Executives and Supervisors for Epic Abuses, Value Destruction - Yves Smith -It’s hardly a secret that Deutsche Bank has become a standout in the universe of badly managed big banks. But thanks to news flow overwhelm, we’ve been slow to write up an important suit, Rosenfeld v. Achleitner that lays out the misconduct over the last decade and is out to ding the executives and directors, or more accurately, their very fat D&O policies, for the abuses (Paul Achleitner is Deutche’s long-standing and very connected chairman of the board). We’ve embedded both the original complaint and the brief in opposition to the defendants’ Motion to Dismiss. The text of the later filing isn’t that long; the big page count comes from inclusion of all the exhibits.Rosenfeld v. Achleitner follows broadly the same legal strategy as a set of filings against a series of European corporate governance train wrecks, including Bayer, Volkswagen, UBS and Credit Suisse: it’s hauling their top brass into New York court to ‘splain themselves. As you can see from the filing below, “foreign” corporations, as in foreign to that jurisdiction, are regularly and successfully sued. From a legal perspective, a German company is no more foreign to New York than Bank of America, a Delaware corporation.As you’ll see from the more recent filing, a key issue is procedure versus substance. Deutsche Bank is governed by German law. However, the plaintiffs argue that by issuing shares in the US and having a substantial base of American shareholders, having large banking operations in the US that are subject to US regulatory supervision, Deutsche just like Bank of America can be hauled into New York court. The plaintiffs are filing a derivative action, which means rather than suing the board and executives in their capacity as shareholders (which the shareholders’ agreement would require them to avail themselves of cronyistic German courts) but derivatively, as in acting on behalf of the corporation to sue individuals who have violated their legally-defined duties to the corporation. To sue derivatively, the plaintiffs must satisfy at least one test of “demand futility,” that a majority of the directors were incapable of making an independent decision to bring suit against the alleged bad actors because 1. they were not impartial (aka they were part of the problem), 2. they didn’t inform themselves when they should have (they played ostrich), or 3. the behavior was so heinous “on its face that it could not have been the product of sound business judgment.” Deutsche’s rap sheet is so long it’s not hard to think the judge will deem the plaintiffs to have met at least one standard.
Citigroup to cut bonuses for top executives after U.S. reprimand - Citigroup will reduce bonuses for dozens of its top executives after the bank was reprimanded by regulators last year. The reductions may vary widely, depending on the size and structure of each executive’s pay package, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Executives who report directly to the management committee are being told this month of the decisions. Citigroup’s board is still weighing final compensation decisions for the 15-member executive management team, including Chief Executive Michael Corbat. A spokeswoman for Citigroup declined to comment. The move is another sign of the efforts Citigroup is making to appease the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve after both regulators dinged the bank for failing to properly maintain risk management systems and other internal systems. The bank has repeatedly vowed to fix those problems after spending more than $1 billion on infrastructure and controls in 2020.
CFPB’s Kraninger resigns just as Biden takes office - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger resigned Wednesday, clearing the way for the Biden administration to pick a successor. Kraninger's departure from the agency with the change of power in Washington was widely expected. Though her term would not have officially ended until 2023, many of her policies supported by the Trump administration had roiled Democrats. After the Supreme Court ruled last year that a president can fire a CFPB chief at will, many speculated that President Biden would force her out if she did not leave on her own. She ended up resigning on the same day Biden was inaugurated. In a tweet, Kraninger said she was leaving "as requested by the Biden administration." “I support the Constitutional prerogative of the President to appoint senior officials within the government who support the President’s policy priorities, which ensures our government is responsive to the will of the people as expressed in presidential elections,” Kraninger wrote in a letter to staff.
Former Cordray aide selected for interim CFPB post - Dave Uejio, the chief strategy officer at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, was named acting director of the CFPB and promised to move quickly to address racial inequality and aid consumers during the pandemic. A nine-year veteran of the bureau, Uejio was named to the acting post after Kathy Kraninger was asked by the Biden administration to resign. He said he plans to ensure a smooth but brief transition until the Senate confirms Federal Trade Commissioner Rohit Chopra to lead the CFPB on a permanent basis. In a memo to staff, Uejio said that his appointment “may be relatively brief,” but that he does not intend to perform the role as a steward. The White House announced his selection as acting director late Wednesday. “The magnitude of the challenges facing the country is simply too great to wait,” Uejio wrote in the memo, which was obtained by American Banker. “The COVID pandemic rages unabated, threatening the well-being of millions of Americans. I believe the Bureau can and must do more to meet the moment to ensure we are taking all available measures to protect consumers, particularly the most vulnerable.” Uejio's tenure as acting director could last just weeks given that Chopra was unanimously confirmed to his FTC post two years ago by the Senate. Uejio has a broad knowledge of the CFPB and policy issues, having worked for five years as chief strategy officer and briefly as chief of staff to former CFPB Director Richard Cordray. “He’s a great interim pick and he doesn’t regard the role as simply a caretaker," Cordray said. "He knows there are important things they need to be doing including focusing on the needs of people affected by the pandemic.” Experts said Uejio knows the CFPB's culture and will work closely with Chopra, if he is confirmed, during the transition. Former colleagues described him as easy to work with and approachable.
NCUA quietly approves supervisory guidance rule - The National Credit Union Administration board on Tuesday approved a final rule on supervisory guidance. The proposal was issued in early November and the rule was approved unanimously by notation vote, the third time in a month the agency has approved rules that way. In December, a unanimous notation vote was used to ease restrictions on exemptions for filing suspicious activity reports, and earlier this month the regulator took similar steps with a request for information intended to improve transparency at the agency. The supervisory guidance proposal was issued as joint rulemaking among NCUA, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other federal regulators. The rule codifies a 2018 Interagency Statement Clarifying the Role of Supervisory Guidance and reaffirms that the credit union regulator “will continue to follow and respect the limits of administrative law in carrying out [its] supervisory responsibilities,” according to a press release. That statement, NCUA said, reiterates that unlike law or regulation, supervisory guidance “does not have the force and effect of law” and “does not create binding legal obligations.” But credit unions and industry groups that commented on the proposal had concerns with the plan and how it might function upon implementation. Sonya McDonald, chief operating officer at the $12.5 billion-asset Randolph-Brooks Federal Credit Union in Live Oak, Texas, wrote that the pandemic “has shown the malleability of guidance, as we have seen differing opinions in the best way to handle the fallout.” With change occurring faster than ever, she added, more clarity around the difference between regulation and supervisory guidance could help provide more stability for the industry. However, some suggested NCUA refine how it approaches the matter, including removal of the word “supervisory.” Doing so, suggested Ronald McLean, president and CEO of the Cooperative Credit Union Association, could “help underscore that the guidance has no enforcement implications.” He added that “each guidance statement should include a prominent notice in the same size type as the entire document highlighting that the information provided is strictly guidance and cannot be enforced by examiners.”
A world of regulatory pressure on installment lenders - Providers of installment payments — also called buy now/pay later — have risen in popularity over the course of the past year. And they're starting to catch the attention of regulators. The BNPL industry won its first battle when the U.K. Parliament voted against a bill that would more heavily regulate BNPL firms, which fall outside of the U.K.'s lending laws. The Labour-led proposal would have introduced new regulations within three months of the passage of a broader financial services bill. While the bill failed, BNPL firms will likely face new regulations in the U.K. following a Treasury review of unsecured credit. This follows regulations in Sweden, requiring merchants to initially present payment methods that do not create consumer debt. And merchants cannot pre-select the option of paying with invoices or installments in their online checkout pages. In the U.S., California regulators recently fined Sezzle, Afterpay and Quadpay for operating without a lenders' license, requiring these companies to obtain licenses in the state. And in Australia, regulators in late 2020 required BNPL companies to publicly disclose their target markets and ensure those markets will not incur financial harm. Most of the regulatory moves focus on BNPL products as a source of credit or debt risk for consumers. While the installments do not carry interest and are often a way for merchants and consumers to support larger purchases, point of sale credit is still debt. The regulators in California, U.K., Sweden and Australia all mentioned the risk of consumers buying products they can't afford and thus taking on financial risk. "The fast growth of BNPL firms made some politicians consider whether they should be regulated — and if so, how," said Zil Bareisis, head of retail banking at Celent, adding there are some countries such as Germany that are averse to debt, but that is not the case in the U.K. "So there is always a risk that some people might over-leverage themselves and not be able to pay back their loans," Bareisis said. In the U.K., BNPL firms may have also gotten unwittingly compared to Wonga, the U.K.'s largest payday lender, which collapsed in 2018. Wonga's struggles shed light on the U.K.'s payday lending industry, in which some lenders were charging APRs as high as 1,500%. BNPL lenders don't charge interest — that's part of the appeal — but their fast growth during a financial crisis has sparked worry among consumer groups, thus drawing the attention of regulators. "I certainly don’t want to compare BNPL firms with the 'old style' payday lenders; I'm just simply highlighting the fact that a relatively easy availability of credit, even if it’s short-term borrowing, is making some concerned that there will be those that won’t be able to afford it and will get into financial difficulties," Bareisis said.
With Democrats in power, will CRA be expanded to nonbanks? — The election of President Biden and turnover in leadership of the federal banking agencies not only means a new regulatory approach to implementing the Community Reinvestment Act. It could shine a brighter light on Congress potentially expanding the law to nonbanks. A legislative effort led by Democrats to subject fintechs and other unregulated institutions that offer banking services to CRA exams would be an uphill battle, and some observers say lawmakers are not likely to focus on such a proposal anytime soon. Yet Biden supported a CRA expansion during the presidential campaign to cover nonbank mortgage providers and insurance companies. A policy brief released by his campaign last February said the CRA currently "does little to ensure that ‘fintechs’ and non-bank lenders are providing responsible access to all members of the community.” Just as the bank regulators weigh fundamental changes to the CRA exam process, industry representatives and community advocates have long argued for extending CRA standards to financial institutions other than banks. And some Democrats such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have pushed for legislative approaches expanding CRA to a broader array of companies. "It’s time to look at how those entities can best demonstrate that they serve their entire communities,” said Krista Shonk, vice president of regulatory compliance and policy of the American Bankers Association. Others say financial services companies that generally receive benefits from the government should be held accountable for their level of investment in their respective communities.Jesse Van Tol, CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, said it is feasible that Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress may pursue some kind of legislative package focused on addressing racial inequities, and that the inclusion of CRA-like obligations for nonbank financial companies could be folded in alongside other initiatives. “I think almost every financial services company is the product of, or in some way the beneficiary of, the government infrastructure that regulates them,” Van Tol said. In the same way that the government can point to federal deposit insurance and chartering as exclusive government benefits for banks that warrant greater responsibilities, he said, the trillions of dollars distributed by the government to large companies in the wake of the pandemic could come with similar strings. “There’s a lot of evidence that many financial markets, especially mortgage markets, are essentially propped up by the government,” Van Tol said. “That means a rationale is there for requiring something in return.”
FHFA asks for input on GSEs' exposure to climate change — The Federal Housing Finance Agency is seeking feedback on potential climate risks to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks and how the agency should account for global warming in its supervisory framework. In a request for information issued Tuesday, the FHFA asked for public comment on how climate risks could affect the safety and soundness of the government-sponsored enterprises, and what risk management strategies the industry currently uses to address climate change and natural disaster risks. The move, which could precede a future rulemaking, comes almost a year after several Senate Democrats sent a letter to Fannie and Freddie asking how the companies factor extreme weather into their risk modeling. The incoming Biden administration has pledged to address climate change as one of its top priorities, a goal that has been echoed by Janet Yellen, Biden’s nominee to serve as Treasury secretary. “Natural disasters can adversely affect the regulated entities. Historically, the ability to assess the scale, timing, location, and impact of such risks has been limited,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a statement. “Today’s RFI will help FHFA better understand and address the regulated entities’ exposure to climate and natural disaster risk.” The agency is also asking for input on how it should evaluate the ability of the GSEs to assess and account for climate risk, as well as how it should prioritize climate and natural disaster risks as part of its supervision of Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks. The FHFA also asked whether it should impose climate stress tests or scenario analyses on Fannie and Freddie and if so, how those should be designed. The public can submit comments to the FHFA for 90 days after the request for information is published.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.37%" -- Note: This is as of January 10th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.37% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased from 5.46% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.37% as of January 10, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ... “The week of January 10th saw the largest – and only the second – decrease in the share of loans in forbearance in nine weeks, with declines across almost every tracked loan category,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The rate of exits from forbearance has picked up a bit over the past two weeks but remains much lower than what was seen in October and early November.”Fratantoni added, “Job market data continue to indicate weakness, and that means many homeowners who remain unemployed will need ongoing relief in the form of forbearance. While new forbearance requests remain relatively low, the availability of relief remains a necessary support for many homeowners.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has generally been trending down. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.07%."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of January 19th. From Black Knight: Active Forbearance Plans Increase Slightly as Improvement Continues to Plateau: The trend of mid-month increases in active forbearance plans we’ve been reporting on for some time continues in 2021, with the population of homeowners in such plans rising by 17,000 this week.According to the latest weekly snapshot of our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance data,2.74 million homeowners were in active forbearance as of January 19. The population has been vacillating between 2.71 and 2.83 million since early November, when the country began seeing new coronavirus case spikes and resulting shutdowns. Removal rates have also slowed noticeably following the six-month point of forbearance plans. This suggests that those borrowers who remain in forbearance were likely more heavily impacted by the economic downturn and thus are less likely to leave such plans before the full allowable 12-month period runs down....Though we are a far cry from the peaks we saw last summer as far as the total number of active forbearance plans, the rate of improvement continues to be relatively slow. We’re seeing fewer new plan starts, with that number holding steady at the three-week average and down 30 percent from the same week in December. At the same time, plan removals remain weak, with this week recording the second lowest weekly removal volume observed to date since we began monitoring the situation in April.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 15, 2021. ... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 87 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates increased across the board last week, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 2.92 percent – its highest level since November 2020 – and the 15-year fixed rate increasing for the first time in seven weeks to 2.48 percent. Market expectations of a larger than anticipated fiscal relief package, which is expected to further boost economic growth and lower unemployment, have driven Treasury yields higher the last two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “After a post-holiday surge of refinances, higher rates chipped away at demand. There was a 5 percent drop in refinance activity, driven by a 13.5 percent pullback in government refinances.” Added Kan, “Purchase applications remained strong based on current housing demand, rising over the week and up a noteworthy 15 percent from last year. Homebuyers in early 2021 continue to seek newer, larger homes. The average loan size for purchase loans jumped to $384,000, the second highest level in the survey.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 2.92 percent from 2.88 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.But with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year. Note that refinance activity really picked up in February 2020. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 15% year-over-year unadjusted.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.76 million in December --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Rise 0.7% in December, Annual Sales See Highest Level Since 2006: Existing-home sales rose in December, with home sales in 2020 reaching their highest level since 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Activity in the major regions was mixed on a month-over-month basis, but each of the four areas recorded double-digit year-over-year growth in December.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.7% from November to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.76 million in December. Sales in total rose year-over-year, up 22.2% from a year ago (5.53 million in December 2019)....Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.07 million units, down 16.4% from November and down 23% from one year ago (1.39 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 1.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.3 months in November and down from the 3.0-month figure recorded in December 2019. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in December (6.76 million SAAR) were up 0.7% from last month, and were 22.2% above the December 2019 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.07 million in December from 1.28 million in December. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 23% year-over-year in December compared to December 2019. Months of supply decreased to 1.9 months in December (an all time low). This was above the consensus forecast.
Comments on December Existing Home Sales -Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.76 million in December. A few key points:
- 1) This was the highest sales rate for December since 2004, and the 2nd highest sales for December on record. Some of the increase over the last several months was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April. Other reasons include record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals, strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities) and favorable demographics. The delay in the buying season has pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels. For example, this number of sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in July, would have given a 5.3 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR), as opposed to 6.76 million SAAR. So the delay in the buying season is a factor in the headline number being so high.There are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of next year!
- 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 23% year-over-year (YoY) in December. This is the lowest level of inventory for December since at least the early 1990s. Months-of-supply is at a record low. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
- 3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, annual sales in 2020 were at 5,640,000, up 5.6% from 5,340,000 in 2019. This was the highest annual sales rate since 2006 (6,477,000). The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019. Sales NSA in December (537,000) were 23.7% above sales last year in December (434,000). This was the highest sales for December (NSA) since 2004.
Housing Starts increased to 1.669 Million Annual Rate in December - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions - Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,669,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,578,000 and is 5.2 percent above the December 2019 rate of 1,587,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,338,000; this is 12.0 percent above the revised November figure of 1,195,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000. An estimated 1,380,300 housing units were started in 2020. This is 7.0 percent above the 2019 figure of 1,290,000. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000. This is 4.5 percent above the revised November rate of 1,635,000 and is 17.3 percent above the December 2019 rate of 1,457,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 1,226,000; this is 7.8 percent above the revised November figure of 1,137,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 437,000 in December. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in December compared to November. Multi-family starts were down 39% year-over-year in December. Single-family starts (blue) increased in December, and were up 28% year-over-year. This is the highest level for single family starts since 2006. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in December were above expectations, and starts in October and November were revised up. A very strong report.
Comments on December Housing Starts – McBride - Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.669 Million Annual Rate in December. Total housing starts in December were above expectations, and starts in October and November were revised up. The single family sectors has increased sharply, but the volatile multi-family sector is down significantly year-over-year (apartments are under pressure from COVID). The housing starts report showed starts were up 5.8% in December compared to November, and starts were up 5.2% year-over-year compared to December 2019.Single family starts were up 28% year-over-year. Single family starts are at the highest level since 2006. Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts. The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2019 (blue) and 2020 (red). A key point: Housing starts averaged 1.590 million SAAR in the three months prior to the pandemic. That is about the same as the last three months. 2020 was off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished the year strong. Starts were up 5.2% in December compared to December 2019. In 2019, starts picked up at the end of the year - and were strong in early 2020 - so the comparisons for the next couple of months will be difficult - and then the comparisons will be easy in March, April and May. Don't be surprised if starts are down year-over-year sometime over the next two months. Starts were up 7.0% in 2020 from 2019. This is close to my forecast for 2020, although I didn't expect a pandemic! I expect starts to remain solid, but the growth rate will slow. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - then mostly moved sideways. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off with the pandemic. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Single family starts are getting back to more normal levels, and I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on a rolling 12 month basis.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 83 in January –= The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 83, down from 86 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Down on Rising Material Prices, Upsurge in COVID-19 Cases Rising material costs led by a huge upsurge in lumber prices, along with a resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the nation, pushed builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes down three points to 83 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite the drop, builder sentiment remains at a strong level. “Despite robust housing demand and low mortgage rates, buyers are facing a dearth of new homes on the market, which is exacerbating affordability problems,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Builders are grappling with supply-side constraints related to lumber and other material costs, a lack of affordable lots and labor shortages that delay delivery times and put upward pressure on home prices. They are also concerned about a changing regulatory environment.” “While housing continues to help lead the economy forward, limited inventory is constraining more robust growth,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “A shortage of buildable lots is making it difficult to meet strong demand and rising material prices are far outpacing increases in home prices, which in turn is harming housing affordability.”...All three major HMI indices fell in January. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 90, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 83 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers decreased five points to 68.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 76, the Midwest was up two points to 83, the South fell one point to 86 and the West posted a one-point loss to 95.
AIA: "Architecture Billings continue to lose ground" in December Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: Architecture Billings continue to lose ground: Demand for design services from U.S. architecture firms took a pointed dip last month, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The pace of decline during December accelerated from November, posting an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 42.6 from 46.3 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Meanwhile, the pace of growth of inquiries into new projects remained flat from November to December with a score of 52.4, though the value of new design contracts stayed in negative territory with a score of 48.5. “Since the national economic recovery appears to have stalled, architecture firms are entering 2021 facing a continued sluggish design market,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “However, the recently passed federal stimulus funding should help shore up the economy in the short-term, and hopefully by later this year there should be relief as COVID vaccinations become more widespread. Recent project inquiries from prospective and former clients have been positive, suggesting that new work may begin picking up as we move into the spring and summer months.” ...
• Regional averages: South (46.8); Midwest (43.6); West (43.4); Northeast (38.8)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (48.0); commercial/industrial (47.2); multi-family residential (46.1); institutional (38.5)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 42.6 in December, down from 46.3 in November. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been below 50 for ten consecutive months. This represents a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months).This weakness is not surprising since certain segments of CRE are struggling, especially offices and retail.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.8% Year-over-year -From CoStar: US Hotel Occupancy Exceeds 40% During Week of Jan. 16: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy climbed back to the 40% mark, according to STR‘s latest data through 16 January.
10-16 January 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):
• Occupancy: 40.1% (-31.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$89.39 (-31.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$35.85 (-53.6%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020). Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.
The Pain of Service Crapification - Smith - We’ve discussed crapification off and on over the years. Readers lament how clothes have gone downhill. Even at the high end, fabrics, finishing and tailoring are shoddier. You are luck if that major appliance will last five years. Cars chock full of telematics look to be intended for a seven year life. Copper pans are lighter. Tools have gone downhill.While crapified goods force you either to live with something that breaks early, forcing you to live with it, make a costly/inconvenient repair, or buy a replacement, crapfied services are an ongoing tax on your time and a stressor on already frayed nerves. I work in the same room as my mother so as to keep an eye on her and the aides (I have gotten very good at tuning out crime shows). She’s even noticed how much time I spend daily rectifying screw-ups. It used to be perhaps a half hour a week. It’s now averaging over 20 minutes a day.Readers were well acquainted with the old normal annoyances, like getting routed to call centers in India where the prejudice against the heavy accents was warranted, since they seemed able to manage only the most basic scripts. Or all sorts of phone systems having even more elaborate prompts in order to keep you away from a live human being.But there’s been a big ratchet down with Covid. And it seems to go well beyond organizations having trouble managing a significantly remote workforce. There also looks to be significant and deliberate cuts in service, as in using Covid as a cover to cut costs, whether the business is suffering or not. Remember that some companies, like health insurers, are making out like bandits. Letme give you a few examples that would not have happened in the old normal.
LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in December - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2.0% in December compared to the rolling 12 months ending in October. Outbound traffic was down 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 24% YoY in December, and exports were down 1% YoY.
Soaring Inflation & Supply-Chain Disruptions Spark 'Surge' In US PMIs - After a 'mixed' picture in December (Services down but Manufacturing up - due to the fallacy of lockdown-disrupted supply-chains being a sign of strength?), analysts expected coordinated weakness in preliminary January data, catching down to the slump in 'hard' economic data in the last three months. However, amid drastic lockdowns across the nation and daily headlines about just how bad life is in America, both US Services and Manufacturing exploded higher in January
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI 59.1 vs 56.5 exp vs 57.1 prior - a record high!
- Markit US Services PMI 57.5 vs 53.4 exp vs 54.8 prior
All driven by soaring inflation:Meanwhile, inflationary pressures intensified as supplier delays and shortages pushed input prices higher. The rate of input cost inflation was the fastest on record (since October 2009), as soaring transportation and PPE costs were also noted. A number of firms were able to partially pass-on greater cost burdens, however, as the pace of charge inflation quickened to a steep rate. The impact was less marked in the service sector as firms sought to boost sales, but manufacturers registered the sharpest rise in selling prices since July 2008.The rate of input price inflation ticked up further in January, amid higher transportation and PPE costs. The rate of increase was the fastest on record (since data collection began in October 2009)However, the overall rate of growth eased from that seen in December, as service providers indicated a slower expansion in new orders following a rise in virus cases and greater restrictions on business operations. Nonetheless, the upturn among manufacturers accelerated and was the steepest since September 2014.This pushed the US Composite PMI to the best in the world...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 900,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending January 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 900,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 39,000 from 965,000 to 926,000. The 4-week moving average was 848,000, an increase of 23,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 9,750 from 834,250 to 824,500. This does not include the 423,734 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 284,886 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 848,000.The previous week was revised down.The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).Regular state continued claims decreased to 5,054,000 (SA) from 5,181,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 5,707,397 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,442,888 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. An additional 3,026,952 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,166,261 the previous week. These numbers will increase now that the programs have been extended.
Armed protesters gather at Michigan state capitol - A handful of armed protesters affiliated with right-wing militias gathered outside the Michigan statehouse in Lansing on Sunday, according to reports.About 20 protesters, including members of the anti-government boogaloo movement, began to gather outside the state capitol shortly after noon, theDetroit Free Press reported.The planned demonstration to protest President Trump’s re-election loss comes amid heavily heightened security in Lansing in the wake of the Jan. 6 siege of the US Capitol.The FBI has warned of possible assaults on all 50 state capitols when former Vice President Joe Biden is sworn into office Wednesday.Police in the Michigan capital said they are prepared to handle crowds of up to 5,000 protesters, the Free Press said.“We want to make this a safe environment for people to come down here to express their constitutional rights,” Michigan State Police Lt. Brian Oleksyk told the newspaper.“But we are prepared to protect this building as well as the people that are here,” Oleksyk said. “We’re not going to tolerate any type of violence, any type of destruction of property, any assault to police officers (or) other people here expressing their constitutional rights, as well as the media.”
Armed protestors gather at Ohio State Capitol -Armed demonstrators gathered at the Ohio State Capitol on Sunday afternoon, as statehouses around the country stepped up security to confront the possibility of civil unrest ahead of Inauguration Day.About 50 protestors, some armed with assault weapons and other firearms, escorted a “Liberty or Death” flag to the statehouse in Columbus at 11 a.m.,according to USA Today.Ohio is an open-carry state, meaning licensed owners can display their weapons.The crowd included both supporters of President Trump and counter-protestors, at least one of whom carried a Black Lives Matters flag, according to local station WBNS.By 2:30 p.m., most of them had left.The Ohio State Highway Patrol told the CBS affiliate that as of midafternoon, no arrests had been made. Gov. Mike DeWine authorized the deployment of up to 580 National Guard members to secure government buildings in the Buckeye State leading up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to USA Today.
LG&E KU Propose Rate Increase Of More than $200 Per Year - Nearly a million Kentuckians could see their gas and electricity rates increase under a proposal from the state’s largest utility, according to a rate adjustment application with the Kentucky Public Service Commission. Louisville Gas & Electric and Kentucky Utilities are asking state regulators to raise rates on Kentuckians for the third time in four years, resulting in approximately $334 million in additional revenues for the utility per year, according to testimony from LG&E/KU CEO Paul Thompson. The typical residential customer with both gas and electricity would pay an average of $215 more per year under the proposed rate increase. The average residential electric bill would increase about 12% or about $11.74 per month while the typical residential gas bill would increase more than 9%, or about $6.17 per month. In testimony provided to state utility regulators, Thompson described a landscape where energy efficiency and conservation have flattened sales, environmental regulations combined with the declining costs of gas and renewable energy are hastening the demise of LG&E’s coal-fired power plants, and where power companies need to make investments for the future. Thompson told regulators the utility is aware of and “sensitive” to the financial challenges facing customers brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, and to that end delayed asking for the rate increase by two months.
Oregon faces legal challenges after establishing blacks-only COVID-19 relief fund - A COVID-19 relief fund set up by the state of Oregon has run into legal challenges after it became known that the fund was reserved exclusively for African American residents. The state’s doling out of inadequate financial aid to troubled businesses on race-based criteria reveals the politically bankrupt and deeply reactionary nature of racialist politics. The Oregon Cares Fund was arranged by state Democratic Party officials in July 2020 and reserved $62 million out of the $200 million that was set aside by the Oregon legislature’s Emergency Board to provide relief to small businesses affected by the pandemic. The fund’s website declares it is intended for “Black people, Black-owned businesses, and Black community based organizations” and provides up to $3,000 per-family and $100,000 per-business. The relief funds were drawn from the $1.4 billion that the state of Oregon received from the federal CARES Act last spring. According to the New York Times, the fund has paid out nearly $50 million. A remaining $8.8 million was held up by a federal court in December, in the face of legal challenges by non-black business owners alleging discrimination. The Times, in its noxious and typical fashion, calls the fund “novel and bold” for allocating funds on a racial basis. Democratic state senator Lew Frederick told the Times, “It was finally being honest: This is who needs this support right now.” The Democratic governor of Oregon, Kate Brown, has vowed to defend the discriminatory fund. Walter Leja, the white owner of a small electrical company and a plaintiff in the lawsuits against the state, told the New York Times that he would be forced to lay off employees if he does not receive relief funds soon. Referring to the fund, he said, “It’s discriminatory. It’s locking up a bunch of funds that can only be used by Black businesses when there’s a ton of other businesses out there that need access to those funds. It’s not a white or Black thing. It’s an everybody thing.” Leja, alongside two other small business owners are suing based on the argument that the fund violates the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause. Maria Garcia, the Mexican American owner of Revolucion Coffee House in Portland, claims her application for aid was denied because her shop “does not meet the criteria because 0% of its owners identify as Black,” according to the Wall Street Journal.
COVID data analyst Rebekah Jones says she is turning herself in - The Florida data analyst who claims she was fired because she wouldn’t doctor state coronavirus data tweeted Saturday she was turning herself into police — though it’s unclear exactly why.“To protect my family from continued police violence, and to show that I’m ready to fight whatever they throw at me, I’m turning myself into police in Florida Sunday night,” Rebekah Jones said in a tweet. “The Governor will not win his war on science and free speech. He will not silence those who speak out.”The Florida Department of Law Enforcement confirmed it has an active arrest warrant for Jones. Spokeswoman Jessica Cary could not provide details about any charges against Jones before she was booked.Jones lost her job in May after creating a widely-praised state dashboard tracking COVID-19 cases, deaths, testing and other data. She claimed she was fired because sherefused to manipulate data to support the state’s plans to ease lockdown restrictions.In December, Florida authorities served a search warrant at her home — in a raid she claims included pointing a gun at her children.At the time of the raid, authorities said Jones was being investigated for hacking a government messaging system after an odd alert was sent out. It’s unclear if that is the charge she will be hit with. “It’s time to speak up before another 17,000 people are dead. You know this is wrong. You don’t have to be a part of this. Be a hero. Speak out before it’s too late,” the alert read. Jones insisted in her tweets that law enforcement “found no evidence of a message sent last Nov. [sic] to DOH staff telling them to ‘speak out’ on any of the devices they took” from her home. She previously claimed she never had access to the alert system.
Why Billions In Food Aid Hasn't Gotten To Needy Families -- When schools shut down in the spring, that raised immediate worries about the nearly 30 million children who depend on school food. Those worries were essentially borne out, with researchers reporting a large rise in child hunger.According to a report from Feeding America, 1 in 4 households with children experienced food insecurity in 2020. "These are just levels that we've never seen before," says Diane Schanzenbach, an economist at Northwestern University.Typically, she says, when families are having trouble stretching their food budget, the adults will go without food before allowing the children to go hungry. But in April, with shutdowns at their most acute, nearly 20% of mothers said their children themselves didn't have enough to eat. That's compared with fewer than 5% in 2018.School food programs have been working hard: offering groceries, pre-prepared meals and everything in between. But as we've reported, it often isn't enough. One federal program did make a difference. Congress passed a law giving families the cash value of the meals they missed when schools were closed. States loaded this money directly onto existing EBT cards (EBT is the program formerly known as food stamps). Families were eligible for $117 per child per month.But that was last spring. Congress reauthorized the benefits for this current school year on Oct. 1. And the benefit was supposed to be extended to younger children as well. The potential value, estimates Bauer: $12 billion. So far, so good. But the plan ran into a wall of bureaucracy. One complication was that this fall, not every school around the country was closed all month. Closures varied week to week, state to state, district to district, and even school to school. States were supposed to calculate the number of missed meals and give the money out equitably. But, Bauer explains, "the states are not getting good guidance from USDA about how to simplify the implementation of the program. And so as a result, everything has been in a holding pattern." The U.S. Department of Agriculture didn't issue guidance to states on plans for how to do this for six weeks. So far, they have approved only the plans from Massachusetts, Indiana and Rhode Island. And they haven't yet touched the issue of how to give out the money to children under 6.
The science of the pandemic supports teachers’ concerns over the dangers of school reopening—Part one - The Democratic Party, under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden, has set as one of its key initiatives the reopening of in-class instruction for all public schools across the nation amid a ceaselessly raging pandemic. This remains the final hurdle in fully implementing the policy of herd immunity. The $1.9 trillion economic rescue package being proposed to counter the economic downturn and COVID-19 crisis has earmarked $400 billion for vaccine rollout and “safe school reopening.” After decades of austerity and dismantling of the institutions of public health and education by both the Democrats and Republicans, promises to fund efforts that would require years of investment to sustain these critical programs simply ring hollow. In December, Biden pledged, “It should be a national priority to get our kids back into school and keep them in school. If Congress provides the funding, we need to protect students, educators and staff. If states and cities put strong public health measures in place that we all follow, then my team will work to see that the majority of schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.” The number of “ifs” in this pledge should make one pause and ask “if” this should be construed as even a serious proposal. To make good on his promise, Biden has turned to Connecticut’s education commissioner, Miguel Cardona, who spearheaded the opening of most schools in his state, to assume the helm as secretary of the Department of Education. In this regard, the Democratic Party is preparing to carry the baton in a race to open all aspects of society in complete unity with the plans of outgoing President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. In November, Cardona made significant remarks that have no basis in science, but are aimed at sustaining a certain pretense of concern for education: “Closing schools alone would not reduce … the transmission risk in other places,” he said. “In school, we know that students have their mitigation strategies, like distancing and facial coverings.” This statement not only denies that schools are vectors for the pandemic, but suggests that removing children from schools would actually endanger them, making them more vulnerable to ongoing chains of infections in communities. Later we will address the specific science on these assertions. Cardona then proceeded to appeal to educators’ concern for their students as a means of browbeating them to go back to schools. “There’s no way to ensure that’s happening outside of school when they’re not with us,” he said. “What we’re learning … it’s families in already challenged communities that are under-resourced, that need more support. So, by doing these things [opening schools], we’re not only bringing the issue up, we’re using that to guide whatever resources we distribute.” More sophisticated than Trump’s obvious indifference to the consequences for either teachers or students, this patronizing form of persuasion is a dangerous proposition when confronting a deadly virus that is running rampant throughout the country.
The science of the pandemic supports teachers’ concerns over the dangers of school reopening, Part two - Continued from January 20. To read part one, click here . Proponents of school reopening have referenced many small studies or reports that attempt to give credence to their position that schools are safe. What characterizes many of these studies is the limited scope of their school data, the small interval of time to evaluate these issues and limiting their analysis to early fall when the incidence of COVID-19 cases was at its lowest point.Among these, a more recent and often-cited nationwide report from Tulane bears discussion. The study attempts to discern the impact of school reopening on hospitalization rates, which is a critically important issue. Thereport concludes that in settings where viral transmission and hospitalizations were already low, the opening of schools for in-person or hybrid learning did not seem to impact health care systems. However, in regions where the infections were more pervasive, school openings seemed to make matters worse.There are limitations to the study that bear mentioning. The authors use a narrow two-to-five-week lag between exposure to infected individuals and potential hospitalizations. They write, “We cannot even attempt to estimate effects for changes in opening status that occurred after September. Even if we had more recent data, any subsequent changes likely involve endogeneity [inherent contradictions] in the dynamics of school reopening that would be difficult to account for in any empirical analysis.”They also go on to state, “Most schools that are offering in-person instruction are also giving families the option of remote instruction, and many families are taking advantage of this. This means that what we are actually estimating is the effect of the policy of sending all children back in-person, not the effect of actually having all students in school buildings as they were prior to the crisis. So, even if these results were taken literally, they do not mean that sending all children back to school in-person, even in low-baseline-hospitalization counties, would be safe.”The problem, as outlined above, is in many cases as few as one-third of children have returned to in-person education, so the full consequences of reopening the schools cannot yet be measured.Data analyzed from June to August, as reported by NPR, found that people in their 20s accounted for the largest share of confirmed cases. Because of the asymptomatic nature of or mild symptoms among this group, they will be overlooked by public health departments and not significantly contribute to the use of health resources. Rising infections among this group precede increases in COVID-19 by at least four to 15 days among people over the age of 60, if not longer, depending on the social interactions and regional variation in demographics, making the Tulane study on school opening and hospitalizations challenging to interpret. One recent study from Montreal, Quebec, evaluated the transmission of COVID among school-aged children from September to early January, a period of more than four months. The authors reported that “the transmission of COVID among school-age children is not a consequence, but rather a determinant of the general level of infection in surrounding communities.” In other words, children were the source of community spread. The data revealed that cases first began to increase among those age 10 to 19, with a subsequent rise among adults between 30 to 49. As theMontreal Gazette noted, “the study found it’s children who passed the virus onto adults when schools reopened in the fall, feeding the alarming spread seen in Montreal during the pandemic’s second wave.”
Florida teacher fired after blaming Antifa for Capitol riots - The unidentified substitute was filmed by a Bok Academy student who later posted the meltdown on the Instagram account @knowyourracists. According to the Lake Wales’ school principal Dr. Damien Moses, she was dismissed from school system, TMZ reported. The post began: “Teaching kids that Antifa broke into the Capitol. … She was a substitute teacher in the middle school’s language arts class. She has been dismissed from the Lake Wales Charter School System. “She just RANDOMLY started talking about this in 1st period, it was language arts class and we were about to do work when she started talking about the Capitol raid,” the post continued.In the video, the woman can be heard placing full blame for the violent siege on a federal building on Antifa, saying, “Supporters arrived and suddenly there was violence. Already, three of those have been identified as Antifa members.” The teacher piled on, adding “this is just another example of an ongoing problem in which Antifa is paid to go to peaceful protests and stir up violence so that the Trump supporters would look bad.” A brave student spoke up, suggesting otherwise, and the teacher retorted, “No. In fact, there’s video showing Trump supporters trying to stop the people breaking windows. Anybody can put on a MAGA hat. When they’re paid to be there and cause a riot, they want to make it look like Trump supporters, so they wear Trump hats and carry Trump flags.”
Chicago Teachers Union postures with “strike” vote as schools continue in-person learning - As Chicago Public Schools (CPS) begins the second week of in-person learning, there has been a surge of COVID-19 outbreaks impacting at least 49 schools across the city. In this dire situation, the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) has called an emergency meeting of its House of Delegates on Wednesday to consider a vote to strike or take some other kind of “unified job action.” The CTU, like other unions, supports the incoming Biden administration’s pledge to “do everything … to safely reopen the majority of our K-through-eight schools by the end of the first 100 days.” The union’s primary concern is to maintain a “seat at the table” for union officials, and they have done nothing to keep schools closed or protect teachers and workers until vaccinations are widely available for everyone.The bogus character of the action being contemplated by the CTU is indicated by the fact that the union is apparently not considering a traditional strike, but rather a collective decision to teach remotely instead of reporting in person to school buildings as demanded by Chicago’s Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot and CPS CEO Janice Jackson. According to reports, the earliest teachers could take action in this scenario is February 1, the same day around 71,000 K-8 students are scheduled to return to classrooms.While CTU leadership has intimated that an actual strike could occur if CPS decides to lock out teachers who have taken this action, this is the last thing the union wants. Chicago teachers have already been locked out and the union has not called for any mass action to come to their defense. Officials such as CTU President Jesse Sharkey have repeatedly declared their intention to “keep working hard at the table,” so “hopefully we can get a compromise and come up with a safe way to do this.” When asked by a parent on a union Zoom call whether teachers would strike, executive board member Chris Baehrend answered, “We certainly hope not!”That the CTU is even considering a vote in the House of Delegates and the wider membership on taking collective action is a response to widespread anger over the provocative reopening plan being implemented by the Lightfoot administration and mass sentiment for a fight among Chicago educators and the wider working class, including parents.
Tennessee educators and parents call for fully funded remote learning to contain the pandemic On Tuesday, Tennessee’s Republican Governor Bill Lee opened a special session of the Tennessee General Assembly by doubling down on his hard-line stance that all schools should be open for in-person instruction amid the deepening COVID-19 pandemic.As hospitals reach capacity across the state and reputable scientists increasingly recognize that schools are major vectors for the spread of the virus, Lee stated provocatively, “Here’s the bottom line. You can’t say ‘follow the science’ and keep schools closed. You can’t say ‘I believe in public education’ and keep schools closed.”The special assembly was ostensibly called to address the five following issues: learning loss from the pandemic, education funding, accountability, literacy and teacher pay. Following Tuesday’s assembly, Lee made clear to reporters that programs to address learning loss, including summer and after-school tutoring programs, will only be available to districts that have resumed in-person learning.We, the Tennessee Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committee, denounce this attempt to pressure and bribe schools to reopen, in particular as more infectious variants of COVID-19 are spreading undetected throughout the United States. We call for the immediate closure of all schools until the pandemic is contained, and for the provision of ample resources to provide high quality remote learning to all students.Nearly a year into the pandemic, Lee, Education Commissioner Penny Schwinn, and other state politicians have suddenly realized the crisis of learning loss, the under-funding of education, low literacy rates, and inadequate teacher pay.What a fraud! These same politicians bear primary responsibility for the crisis in education that Tennessee’s educators, parents and students now face. They have collaborated to defund public education for decades and siphon funds to charter schools and private corporations.They have used the pandemic to deepen the assault against teachers, denying Tennessee educators a 4 percent pay raise last June, while awarding Lee and other top government officials raises totaling $794,900. Lee has recently stated that last year’s 4 percent raise could be approved later this year, but this is no guarantee. Even if passed, this would amount to a 2 percent raise per year, less than the rate of inflation.
Doctors locked out of hospital in Houston, Texas over rent dispute, forced to treat patients in parking lot -- Staff and patients were locked out of the Heights Hospital in Houston, Texas without warning Monday, leaving medical equipment locked away, and forcing doctors to treat patients in the parking lot without access to their records. The only notice given was a note on the locked door stating, “Please be advised that the door locks to the leased premises have been changed and tenant shall be excluded therefrom due to non-payment of rent.” The note further stated that the back rent and fees amounted to almost half a million dollars. Medical workers and other employees at the clinic, which treats more than 500 patients per week, are left not knowing if they will be paid their wages. The sudden closure of the Heights Hospital follows 21 hospital closures in 2020 across the United States, many of which were thrust into acute financial crisis by the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the hospitals on the list compiled by Becker’s Hospital Review, many with hundreds of beds each, cited various financial strains including loss in federal funding, some citing severe staff shortages following mass desertions from horrifying conditions in hospitals, a loss in patients volume due to restrictions on elective surgeries, and a loss in reimbursement rate due to a higher rate of poorer patients. All of this has combined to contribute to a dramatic shrinking of profit margins which lead to the various for-profit and “non” profit hospitals to restructure their business in order to cut their losses. Security and police were sent to the Heights Hospital this week to prevent staff from entering the hospital. The building, located at 1917 Ashland St. in the Heights, is home to three medical providers, including 1917 Ashland Ventures LLC. The building, according to property records, is owned by 1917 Heights Hospital LLC. According to a lawsuit filed by Arbitra Capital Partners LLC in Harris County on January 8, the Nevada based company gave a $28 million construction loan to 1917 Heights Hospital LLC which still owes some of the loan money, with the suit seeking over $2 million. The dispute over this money appears to be the reason for the lockout. 1917 Heights Hospital is a subsidiary of AMD Global, a Houston commercial real estate company that bought the hospital in 2017. The lawsuit further alleges that the owners of the Heights Hospital failed to pay “crucial management and maintenance expenses for this property, including invoices for utilities, elevator repair and even property insurance.” Another lawsuit from earlier in July 2020 was filed by Integranet Physician Resource, Inc. in Harris County against 1917 Heights Hospital LLC, claiming that the hospital owed it $300,000. Hospital staff members and patients spoke to ABC13 to express their exasperation at the desperate situation. Dr. Felicity Mack, the director and outpatient physician at the hospital, stated, “I tried to contact the owners… They aren't responding. The title company is not responding. We are really not getting any answers, but at the end of the day, my primary concern, like I said, is my patients.” Speaking to KHOU 11 Dr. Mack stated, “In the middle of a pandemic to take away health care access even further than what we already have issues with is just atrocious.”
COVID-19 has multiple faces -- According to current studies, the COVID-19 disease which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus comprises at least five different variants. These differ in how the immune system responds to the infection. Researchers from the German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE) and the University of Bonn, together with other experts from Germany, Greece and the Netherlands, present these findings in the scientific journal "Genome Medicine". Their results may help to improve the treatment of the disease.Infection with SARS-CoV-2 can manifest in different ways: Many of those affected do not even seem to notice the presence of the virus in their bodies. In other cases, the effects can include flu-like symptoms and neurological disorders to severe and even life-threatening pneumonia. "The classification of COVID-19 into mild and severe courses falls short. The disease is much more diverse, and for each affected person, one certainly would want a therapy that is tailored to fit. What helps one person may be ineffective for another," In light of this, a team led by Anna Aschenbrenner, along with colleagues in Germany and abroad, analyzed the blood of people with and without COVID-19. For each patient, the so-called transcriptome of the immune cells in the blood was determined. This requires the analysis of large amounts of data using bioinformatics methods. Based on the molecular fingerprint generated in this way, the researchers were able to identify which genes within the immune cells were switched on or off. Such signatures of gene activity - known as "expression patterns" - provide information about the condition of cells and thus about their properties and functions, which can change depending on the situation. Interestingly, the picture obtained in this way was largely determined by the family of "neutrophils", which are the most abundant of the so-called white blood cells and quite up front in the reaction chain of the immune response. These cells are thus mobilized very early to defend against infections. They act upon the formation of antibodies and, moreover, on other cells that contribute to immunity.The scientists also searched for potential drugs against COVID-19. For this, they drew on the effects registered in databases of around 900 approved drugs on the expression patterns of cells. "We calculated which pharmaceuticals could counteract the altered gene activity profiles of the individual COVID-19 phenotypes," said Aschenbrenner. On this basis, drug candidates for therapy were identified.
COVID-19 is dangerous for middle-aged adults, not just the elderly -COVID-19 has been spreading rapidly over the past several months, and the U.S. death toll has now reached 400,000. As evident from the age distribution of those fatalities, COVID-19 is dangerous not only for the elderly but for middle-aged adults, according to a Dartmouth-led study published in the European Journal of Epidemiology."For a person who is middle-aged, the risk of dying from COVID-19 is about 100 times greater than dying from an automobile accident," explains lead author Andrew Levin, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College. "Generally speaking, very few children and young adults die of COVID-19. However, the risk is progressively greater for middle-aged and older adults. The odds that an infection becomes fatal is only 1:10,000 at age 25, whereas those odds are roughly 1:100 at age 60, 1:40 at age 70, and 1:10 at age 80."These findings represent the culmination of a systematic review of all available studies of COVID-19 prevalence in countries with advanced economies; this review encompassed more than 1,000 research papers and government documents disseminated prior to September 18, 2020. The research team identified 27 studies where the survey design was representative of the general population, covering 34 geographical locations in the U.S., Canada, Asia, and Europe. Using those prevalence data, the researchers investigated the age-specific ratio of COVID-19 fatalities to infections and found a very clear exponential relationship. An initial version of this study was posted online in July 2020 as an NBER Working Paper and was regularly updated on the medRxiv preprint server prior to being published as an open-access article in the European Journal of Epidemiology. The findings remain highly relevant as the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. continues to climb. "Our findings are consistent with the CDC's Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics, which report on COVID-19 deaths by age group," says Levin. "Nearly 40 percent of U.S. COVID-19 deaths have occurred among those ages 45 to 74 years, while almost 60 percent have occurred among those over 75 years old. By contrast, children and young adults (less than 45 years old) account for less than 3 percent of U.S. COVID-19 deaths."
Lack of physical exercise during COVID-19 confinement may lead to a rise in mortality ----- Social distancing and working from home help prevent transmission of the novel coronavirus but can be conducive to unhealthy behavior such as bingeing on fast food or spending more time in a chair or on a couch staring at a screen, and generally moving about less during the day. Scientists believe the reduction in physical activity experienced during the first few months of the pandemic could lead to an annual increase of more than 11.1 million in new cases of type 2 diabetes and result in more than 1.7 million deaths.The estimates are presented by researchers at SĂŁo Paulo State University (UNESP), Brazil, in a review article published in Frontiers in Endocrinology. The authors stress that there is an "urgent need" to recommend physical activity during the pandemic."Recent studies have shown that people with diabetes face a higher risk of developing the severe form of COVID-19, and of dying if the condition is not properly controlled. Others have shown that social distancing and confinement have considerably reduced levels of physical activity, increased sedentary behavior and lowered the quality of people's nutrition. Our article serves as a warning about the harmful consequences of these trends," said Emmanuel Gomes Ciolac, a professor at UNESP's Department of Physical Education in Bauru, and principal investigator for the study. Among other data sources, the review covers the findings of an international online surveyconducted by a group of 35 research institutions on several continents. According to the results, which are preliminary in that they refer to the first 1,000 volunteers to complete the questionnaire, the level of physical activity decreased 35% in the initial months of confinement, and this was accompanied by a 28.6% increase in sedentary behavior, such as sitting or lying for long periods, and unhealthy eating. Previous studies had already shown that a lack of physical activity helped cause some 33 million cases of type 2 diabetes in 2019 and 5.3 million deaths in 2018.
Joggers and cyclists should wear masks – here’s why - England is deep into its third lockdown, yet the daily tally of new COVID cases and deaths remains sickeningly high. As Chris Whitty, the country’s chief medical officer, said recently, more needs to be done to bring the pandemic under control.Masks, which when worn correctly are highly effective in reducing transmission, are already compulsory in indoor public places in the UK. There is talk of making them mandatory in some outdoor settings, as is currently the case in Spain. Perhaps the UK should follow France and require people who are jogging or cycling to wear masks if they are unable to maintain a physical distance from pedestrians.There are many arguments against such a measure. The risk of transmitting coronavirus outdoors is an order of magnitude less than indoors, according to a study that has yet to be published in a scientific journal. Exercising outdoors is one of the few freedoms people in England still have. When jogging or cycling, contacts tend to be rare and fleeting, so would not meet the UK’s official definition of a “close contact” for which one needs to spend 15 minutes closer than two metres – though this time period can now be notched up in a series of shorter encounters throughout a day.The World Health Organization (WHO) is adamant that: “People should NOT wear masks when exercising, as masks may reduce the ability to breathe comfortably”; and “Sweat can make the mask become wet more quickly which makes it difficult to breathe and promotes the growth of microorganisms.” The WHO recommendation is to maintain at least one-metre physical distance from others.But there are also strong arguments for challenging the WHO’s advice. The main one being that the NHS is truly overwhelmed for the first time in its 70-year history because of the rise in COVID hospital admissions. All possible measures must be taken to reduce these numbers.Over half of all cases of COVID are acquired from people who have no symptoms at the time they pass it on. The 15-minute rule for close contact is arbitrary (based on custom and practice rather than empirical evidence). One-metre or two-metre distancing rules (which are derived as much from economic models of lost productivity as from scientific evidence of protection) do not mean that if people keep within these distances, they are safe. The rules mean only that people farther apart are less likely to infect one another.
Are two face masks better than one? Here's what researchers say. --Throughout the epidemic, researchers specializing in everything from epidemiology to physics have held firm on their support for masking, Wu writes. She cites multiple studies on the efficacy of masking amid the pandemic, including several observational studies indicating that "widespread mask-wearing can curb infections and deaths on an impressive scale," another study that "found that known [novel coronavirus] cases waxed and waned in near-lockstep with mask-wearing rules," and yet another that found "face masks were 79 percent effective at blocking transmission from infected people to their close contacts." Still more recent work is "pinning down the basis of these links on a microscopic level," Wu writes. Citing Linsey Marr, an expert on virus transmission at Virginia Tech, Wu explains the "fairly intuitive" science: The novel coronavirus and other respiratory viruses, which travel via "blobs of spittle and spray, need a clear conduit to enter the airway"—airways which masks can protect by inhibiting that potential infection. In fact, Wu writes, experiments have found that even fairly rudimentary masks, such as cloth coverings, are at least 50% effective at diverting "inbound and outbound spray."The research has led some to begin layering masks for extra protection. If you start layering masks, "you start achieving pretty high efficiencies," Marr said. She explained, "The air has to follow this torturous path. The big things it's carrying are not going to be able to follow those twists and turns" through the obstacle course created by the mask fibers.Overall, according to Wu, N95 masks, which provide "ultrahigh filtration efficiency" are considered the best masks—but while those are in short supply due to demand among health care providers, doubling-up on "two less specialized masks … can provide comparable protection." Specifically, Marr advised people to wear first a surgical mask, which have good filtering capabilities, and then add on a cloth mask, which tend to fit more snugly than surgical masks alone. Alternatively, she said, people can wear cloth masks stuffed with a filtering material. But there is a point of diminishing returns, Wu writes. "[W]earing more than two masks, or layering up on masks that are already very good at filtering, will quickly bring diminishing returns and make it much harder to breathe normally."And people can make other adjustments to improve fit and efficiency, Wu added, such as using masks that tie around the back of the head rather than looping over the ears, which can create gaps. Similarly, finding masks with nose bridges can help users wear them more tightly. As Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease physician at the University of California-San Francisco, explained, cobbling together an exceptionally well-fitting and well-filtering mask "is really simple. It doesn't need to involve anything fancy."
Is COVID-19 Infecting Wild Animals? --Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have found coronavirus infections in pet cats and dogs and in multiple zoo animals, including big cats and gorillas. These infections have even happened when staff were using personal protective equipment.More disturbing, in December the United States Department of Agriculture confirmed the first case of a wild animal infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Researchers found an infected wild mink in Utah near a mink farm with its own COVID-19 outbreak.Are humans transmitting this virus to wildlife? If so, what would this mean for wild animals – and people too? We are two scientists who study viruses in wildlife and are currently running a study investigating the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans into domestic and wild animals.When viruses move from one species into another, scientists call it spillover. Thankfully, spillover doesn't occur easily.To infect a new species, a virus must be able to bind to a protein on a cell and enter the cell while dodging an immune system the virus hasn't encountered before. Then, as a virus works to avoid antibodies and other antiviral attackers, it must replicate at a high enough volume to be transmitted on to the next animal.This usually means that the more closely related two species are, the more likely they are to share viruses. Chimpanzees, the species most closely related to humans, can catch and get sick from many human viruses. Earlier this month, veterinarians at the San Diego Zoo announced that the zoo's troop of gorillas was infected with SARS–CoV–2. This indicated it is possible for this virus to jump from humans to our close relatives. Some viruses tend to stay in a single species or in closely related species, while other viruses seem innately more capable of large species jumps. Influenza, for example, can infect a wide variety of animals, from sparrows to whales. Similarly, coronaviruses are known to regularly jump between species.
1 in 8 recovered COVID-19 patients die within 5 months: study --Almost a third of recovered COVID-19 patients in a UK study ended up back in the hospital within five months — and up to one in eight died of complications from the illness, according to a report. Researchers at the UK’s Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics found that out of 47,780 people discharged from the hospital, 29.4 percent were readmitted within 140 days, the Telegraph reported.Of the total, 12.3 percent ended up dying, it added.Respiratory disease was diagnosed in 14,140 of the COVID cases after discharge, with 6,085 of the diagnoses in patients who had no history of respiratory conditions. The mean age of study participants was 65 years. Many people who suffer long-lasting effects of the coronavirus develop heart problems, diabetes and chronic liver and kidney conditions, according to the report.The research also found a higher risk of problems developing in various organs after people younger than 70 and ethnic minorities were discharged from the hospital,according to the Guardian.“People seem to be going home, getting long-term effects, coming back in and dying. We see nearly 30 percent have been readmitted, and that’s a lot of people. The numbers are so large,” study author Kamlesh Khunti said. “The message here is we really need to prepare for long COVID. It’s a mammoth task to follow up with these patients and the NHS is really pushed at the moment, but some sort of monitoring needs to be arranged,”
COVID-19 reduced US life expectancy, especially among Black and Latino populations - The COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 336,000 lives in the United States in 2020, has significantly affected life expectancy, USC and Princeton researchers have found. The researchers project that, due to the pandemic deaths last year, life expectancy at birth for Americans will shorten by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That is the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years and is the lowest life expectancy estimated since 2003. The declines in life expectancy are likely even starker among minority populations. For Blacks, the researchers project their life expectancy would shorten by 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos, by 3.05 years to 78.77 years. Whites are also impacted, but their projected decline is much smaller -- 0.68 years -- to a life expectancy of 77.84 years. Overall, the gap in life expectancy between Blacks and whites is projected to widen by 40%, from 3.6 to more than 5 years -- further evidence of the disease's disparate impact on disadvantaged populations.
US deaths from COVID-19 lead to a more than one-year decline in life expectancy - According to an analysis conducted by researchers from the University of Southern California (USC) and Princeton University, deaths caused by COVID-19 have reduced the overall life expectancy in the United States by 1.13 years. In epidemiologic terms, this is an enormous decline. Life expectancy is one of the most accurate barometers of the health of a society. Adding to the catastrophe of the pandemic, a new variant of the coronavirus has been detected across more than 12 states, threatening to further exacerbate the crisis. On New Year’s Day, the US had registered 20.7 million COVID-19 cases and nearly 357,000 deaths, making it the third leading cause of death behind cancer and heart disease. However, this conservative figure only represents confirmed cases. Overall, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found more than 475,000 excess deaths through early December. It has been estimated that almost two-thirds of excess deaths are attributed directly to COVID-19. Compared to 2019, deaths in the US have climbed more than 10 percent. The term “life expectancy” is frequently used in epidemiology to assess a nation’s health but allows comparison between countries and groups of people. In its simplest expression, it is an estimate of the average age that people in a given population will be when they die. The more commonly used metric by international organizations such as the United Nations and World Bank, termed “period life expectancy,” is the estimated average length of life for a particular population from birth through death. It does not take into account how mortality rates change over time. Instead, it focuses on mortality patterns at one point in time. Despite the US spending more on health care per capita than any other nation, these efforts have not translated to people leading longer lives in the US. In 2019, life expectancy stood at 78.9 years compared to 80.7 years for the rest of OECD nations. This is directly attributable to massive social inequality. Specifically, the US does poorly in areas such as avoidable mortality. It also suffers from a higher chronic disease burden and greater obesity among the population. Additionally, the US does worse with access to health coverage and financial stability. It should come as no surprise that given the massive austerity and cutbacks in the US public health infrastructure that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has thrived so well.
A New COVID-19 Challenge: Mutations Rise Along With Cases --The race against the virus that causes COVID-19 has taken a new turn: Mutations are rapidly popping up, and the longer it takes to vaccinate people, the more likely it is that a variant that can elude current tests, treatments and vaccines could emerge. The coronavirus is becoming more genetically diverse, and health officials say the high rate of new cases is the main reason. Each new infection gives the virus a chance to mutate as it makes copies of itself, threatening to undo the progress made so far to control the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization urged more effort to detect new variants. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a new version first identified in the United Kingdom may become dominant in the U.S. by March. Although it doesn’t cause more severe illness, it will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths just because it spreads much more easily, said the CDC, warning of “a new phase of exponential growth.” “We’re taking it really very seriously," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious disease expert, said Sunday on NBC's “Meet the Press.” “We need to do everything we can now ... to get transmission as low as we possibly can,” said Harvard University’s Dr. Michael Mina. “The best way to prevent mutant strains from emerging is to slow transmission.” So far, vaccines seem to remain effective, but there are signs that some of the new mutations may undermine tests for the virus and reduce the effectiveness of antibody drugs as treatments. “We’re in a race against time" because the virus “may stumble upon a mutation” that makes it more dangerous, said Dr. Pardis Sabeti, an evolutionary biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. Younger people may be less willing to wear masks, shun crowds and take other steps to avoid infection because the current strain doesn’t seem to make them very sick, but “in one mutational change, it might,” she warned. Sabeti documented a change in the Ebola virus during the 2014 outbreak that made it much worse.
New UK coronavirus variant may be deadlier than original strain, health official says - — There is some evidence that a new coronavirus variant first identified in southeast England carries a higher risk of death .than the original strain, the British government’s chief scientific adviser said Friday -- though he stressed that the data is uncertain. Patrick Vallance told a news conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.” He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die.” “With the new variant, for 1,000 people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die,” he said. But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed. In contrast to that uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is more easily passed on than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible. Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead on COVID-19, said studies were underway to look at the transmission and severity of new virus variants. She said so far “they haven’t seen an increase in severity” but that more transmission could lead to “an overburdened health care system” and thus more deaths. The evidence for the new variant being more deadly is i n a paper prepared by a group of scientists that advises the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies. The British scientists said that although initial analyses suggested that the strain, first identified in September, did not cause more severe disease, several more recent ones suggest it might. However, the numbers of deaths are relatively small, and case fatality rates are affected by many things including the care patients get and their age and health beyond having COVID-19. The British scientists stress that the information so far has major limitations, and that they do not know how representative the cases included in the analyses are of what’s happening throughout the country or elsewhere.
U.S. health officials: More data needed on UK COVID-19 variant warning (Reuters) - The United States is closely watching the more infectious variant of COVID-19 after British officials warned that it may also be more deadly, two top U.S. health officials said on Saturday, cautioning more data is needed. Officials are somewhat more worried about a separate variant from South Africa, although it has not yet been identified among U.S. cases of the novel coronavirus, National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Francis Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s top COVID-19 medical adviser, also said. Collins noted the UK’s data was preliminary, and said it was unclear why those with the UK variant faced a higher risk of death, whether by changes in the virus itself or other external causes such as pressures on the healthcare system. “Let’s take this as something to watch closely,” he told MSNBC in an interview. Fauci separately told MSNBC that he needed to see the raw data from the UK before fully assessing the mortality risk and that U.S. officials were weighing how the two new strains could impact vaccine efficacy. “These are serious situations that we are following very closely and, if necessary, we will adapt to it,” Fauci said, adding vaccines could be altered in coming months if needed.
Mutant 'Kent strain' of coronavirus has been in the US since November 6 - The highly-infectious 'Kent' coronavirus variant was already in the US six weeks before Britain sounded the alarm, a study claims. University of Arizona researchers say the B.1.1.7 lineage – as it is scientifically known – was behind a cluster of cases in California that were traced back to November 6. Another outbreak of the variant occurred in Florida on November 23, according to the scientists. The UK's top scientific advisers – who called for a lockdown to stop the rapid spread of the variant – only told the Government about the new variant in mid-December. The team studied the genomes of 50 infected patients whose samples tested positive for the variant, tracing their lineage to estimate when the mutated virus first appeared in the country This retrospective study has the benefit of genomic analysis and hindsight, and the first actual case of the Kent strain was not diagnosed in an American until December 29. 'It is striking that this lineage may already have been established in the US for some 5-6 weeks before B.1.1.7 was first identified as a variant of concern in the UK in mid-December,' the researchers write. 'And it may have been circulating in the US for close to two months before it was first detected, on 29 December 2020.' The Kent variant was designated as a variant under investigation by the UK on December 8 and reclassified as a 'variant of concern' on December 18.
Covid: UK health experts have advice for U.S. on fighting mutant variant — Health experts are warning that even with restrictions, the U.S. is likely to struggle to curb the spread of a highly infectious coronavirus variant, underlining the importance of taking aggressive measures immediately to protect as many people as possible. The variant, discovered in the U.K and known as B.1.1.7., has an unusually high number of mutations and is associated with more efficient and rapid transmission. There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more severe disease outcomes. However, because it's more transmissible, additional people are likely to get infected, and this could lead to a higher number of serious cases, hospitalizations and fatalities.Scientists first detected this mutation in September. The variant of concern has since been detected in at least 44 countries, including the U.S., which has reported its presence in 12 states. Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the modeled trajectory of the variant in the U.S. "exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March." The forecast comes as the U.K. struggles to control the impact of its exponential growth. Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, stressed that it was clear from the U.K. response that unless aggressive measures were taken immediately, "the variant will rapidly spread geographically, as well as increase in frequency in places where it has established into the community." Gurdasani cited findings from a closely watched study led by researchers at Imperial College London that showed "no evidence of decline" in Covid rates between Jan. 6 to Jan. 15 despite England being in lockdown, "suggesting that even with restrictions, it is difficult to contain this effectively due to higher transmissibility."Researchers of the study, published Thursday, warned that U.K. health services would remain under "extreme pressure" and the cumulative number of deaths would increase rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community were reduced substantially. "All this means that the window for containment is very short. Given the lower active surveillance in the U.S., the variant may have spread wider than anticipated, and policy to contain must reflect this," Gurdasani said."This means strict containment efforts not just where the variant was identified, but in all regions where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact tracing to identify all possible cases, while maintaining strict restrictions to break chains of transmission."
Fauci warns of 'more ominous' strains of COVID-19 from Brazil, South Africa - Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned that “more ominous” strains of COVID-19 have emerged out of South Africa and Brazil. The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said they’re looking “very carefully” at the two new mutant variants in addition to another highly contagious one that was first detected in the United Kingdom. “People need to realize there’s more than one mutant strain,” Fauci told NBC anchor Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press.” “There’s one from the UK that’s essentially dominated … There’s another more ominous one that’s in South Africa and Brazil.” Fauci said he doesn’t want “people to panic,” but health experts are taking the new strains “very seriously” and studying them to fully understand the threat they pose. “The Brits have made it very clear that [the strain detected there is] more contagious,” Fauci said. “They say that it isn’t more virulent. But, you know, we’ve got to be careful because the more cases you get, even though on a one-to-one basis it’s not more virulent, meaning it doesn’t make you more sick or more likely to die, just by numbers alone, the more cases you have, the more hospitalizations you’re going to have.” He said they’re still determining whether these mutations will be resistant to the vaccines on the market. “The thing we really want to look at carefully is that does that mutation lessen the impact of the vaccine?” he said. “And if it does, then we’re going to have to make some modifications … We’re looking at that really very carefully.”
Studies of South African Coronavirus Strain Raise Concerns About Immune Response - WSJ—Three new laboratory studies are raising concerns that the immune response triggered by a Covid-19 infection or vaccination may be less effective at protecting against the new strain of the coronavirus that first emerged in South Africa. The findings come from experiments done in the laboratory and only look at certain elements of a body’s immune response. Still, they reinforce the possibility that vaccine makers and regulators will need to update Covid-19 vaccines as the virus evolves. A fourth study, conducted by scientists at BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc. and published by the companies, showed that their vaccine successfully neutralized a variant that was initially detected in the U.K. That study didn’t include the South African strain. The U.K. variant has already spread to many other countries, including the U.S. More than a year into the pandemic, the discovery of new variants that appear to have made the virus more contagious is forcing researchers to adapt their understanding of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. One concern, researchers said, is that the new strains are emerging in countries where a significant percentage of people have already built up an immune response to earlier variants after getting Covid-19. If confirmed by additional research, the studies’ findings would suggest that winning the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic could require repeated inoculations and updates to existing vaccines, similar to what is done for flu shots every year. “We are learning how our body is forcing the virus to change,” said Jinal Bhiman, the principal medical scientist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg and a co-author of one of the studies on the South African variant. Studies on lab-grown viruses and blood drawn from people who have either recovered from a previous bout of Covid-19 or received a Covid-19 vaccine are some of the first experiments scientists conduct when they want to find out more about a new variant. Researchers who worked on the studies said that the tests only examined the response of certain antibodies, while the human immune system also includes so-called T-cells, blood cells that help attack the virus, and other types of cells.The studies haven’t been published in peer-reviewed journals, but were seen by outside researchers interviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Scientists monitor a coronavirus mutation that could affect vaccine strength - As scientists try to track the spread of a new, more infectious coronavirus variantaround the world — finding more cases in the United States and elsewhere this week — they are also keeping an eye on a different mutation with potentially greater implications for how well Covid-19 vaccines work.The mutation, identified in a variant first seen in South Africa and separately seen in another variant in Brazil, changes a part of the virus that your immune system’s antibodies get trained to recognize after you’ve been infected or vaccinated. Lab studies show that the change could make people’s antibodies less effective at neutralizing the virus. The mutation seems to help the virus disguise part of its signature appearance, so the pathogen might have an easier time slipping past immune protection. It’s not that the mutation will render existing vaccines useless, scientists stress. The vaccines authorized so far and those in development produce what’s called a polyclonal response, generating numerous antibodies that home in on different parts of the virus. Changes to any of those target sites raise the possibility that the vaccines would be less effective, not that they won’t work at all. “With one mutation or even three mutations, it’s expected the antibodies will still recognize this variant, though they might not recognize it as well as other variants,” said RamĂłn Lorenzo-Redondo, a molecular virologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine.Essentially, the mutation is getting attention because it appears more likely to have some effect on vaccines than other mutations that have emerged, though scientists are still trying to test that hypothesis. The more contagious variant raising global alarms, which was first seen in the United Kingdom and is referred to as B.1.1.7, is not thought to have mutations that will greatly affect vaccines, the evidence so far indicates. “We need to be monitoring for these mutations,” said Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary virologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who with colleagues published a paper about this specific mutation, known as E484K, this week.But Bloom added that he believed the virus would have to pick up multiple mutations — and particular mutations in specific spots, not just any alterations — to have a serious effect on vaccine efficacy, which will likely take some time. Scientists do think the coronavirus could eventually change so much that the immunity provided by vaccines will be threatened, a process that will pick up as the number of people protected from the virus — either through vaccination or infection — grows and evolutionary pressure in turn increases. But they still anticipate it could take years, and that when it does occur, vaccine makers can tweak their designs to match the newer variant, a process some companies have said would only take weeks.
Another New Covid-19 Variant Discovered In L.A. Might Be Vaccine Resistant, Researcher Says; Strain First Identified In Denmark -Two days after the Los Angeles Public Health Department announced that the much-talked-about UK variant of Covid-19, known as B.1.1.7, had been identified in the region, the CaliforniaDepartment of Public Health revealed that another lesser-known strain had been circulating in the county as well.Known as L452R, the newly announced arrival was first identified in Denmark in March. It showed up in California as early as May.Dr. Charles Chiu, a virologist and professor of laboratory medicine at UCSF who, in concert with state authorities, has been genetically sequencing test samples to identify new variants said early indications are the L452R might be less susceptible to the currently approved vaccines, but more investigation is needed.“This variant carries three mutations, including L452R, in the spike protein, which the virus uses to attach to and enter cells, and is the target of the two vaccines that are currently available in the United States,” said Dr. Chiu. A spike protein mutation could, then, interfere with the vaccine’s efficacy.According to the California Department of Public Health, Santa Clara County has sequenced a large number of positive specimens collected from community testing sites and outbreaks in the county. The L452R was present in specimens from the community and from several large outbreaks, including outbreaks where very high numbers of people exposed contracted the virus.“This variant was identified in several large outbreaks in our county,” said Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody. She called that correlation “a red flag and must be investigated further.”The new variant also has been detected in Los Angeles, Mono, Monterey, Orange, Riverside, San Francisco, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Humboldt and Lake counties. Because genomic sequencing is sparse, it is currently unknown how prevalent L452 is statewide, nationally or globally.Dr. Chiu said L452R grew from about 3.8% of the samples he tested in late November 2020 through early December to more than 25.2% in late December through early January 2021.And there might be another issue with vaccine efficacy. California’s State Epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan said on Sunday that a “higher than usual” number of people had apparent allergic reactions to a batch of Moderna’s vaccine at a San Diego-area clinic.
Covid-19 infection grants immunity for five months, UK study suggests - CNN - People who have been infected with Covid-19 are likely to be protected against catching it again for at least five months, according to a new study led by Public Health England (PHE).The study -- which has not yet been peer reviewed -- found that past infection was linked to an 83% lower risk of reinfection, compared to people who have not been infected before.But researchers warned that the protection was not absolute, meaning some people do catch the virus again, and that it was unclear how long any immunity lasts. It is also possible that those who have a degree of immunity against the virus may still be able to carry the virus in their nose or throat and therefore transmit it to others."We now know that most of those who have had the virus, and developed antibodies, are protected from reinfection, but this is not total and we do not yet know how long protection lasts," Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser at PHE and co-leader of the study, said in a statement."Even if you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infections. But there is still a risk you could acquire an infection and transmit (it) to others," Hopkins said.
Moderna Says Its Covid-19 Vaccine Provides One Year’s Immunity -Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine should provide immunity from disease for at least one year after vaccination, the company announced at a conference Monday, Reuters reports, adding that the company is “on track” to deliver at least 600 million doses of the vaccine in 2021. Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference Monday, Moderna CEO StĂ©phane Bancel said immunity from the company’s Covid-19 vaccine, one of just two approved for emergency use in the U.S., should last for at least a year.While clinical trials showed the vaccine to be highly effective at preventing disease, they do not show precisely how long this immunity will last and it is possible that a new coronavirus vaccine will be required on a regular basis to boost the immune system after this year long period has passed.New variants of the virus can also learn to evade the protection offered by vaccines, and Moderna said it is well placed to respond to new variants of coronavirus, such as highly infectious variants currently spreading through South Africa and the U.K., owing to the adaptable mRNA technology used to develop the vaccine.Bancel’s comments echo earlier statements from manufacturers at Pfizer and BioNTech, who point out the relative ease with which the vaccine’s core components can be edited to adapt to new variants. In addition to discussing the duration of the Moderna vaccine’s immunity, Bancel said the company is “very comfortable” with its track record at producing vaccines, adding that it is on track to deliver between 600 million and 1 billion doses by the end of the year. The company, which has never brought a product to market before, predicted $11.7 billion in vaccine-related sales this year based on advance purchase agreements signed with governments.
The US screwed up its vaccine roll out in part because it was too choosy about who should get shots first - Officials are scrambling to speed-up COVID-19 vaccinations across the US, but a complicated set of guidelines regarding who should get priority have stymied states' efforts to maximize the number of shots in arms. Indeed, the US's roll out efficacy is so poor that it's roughly 12% that of Israel's, which is one track to become the world's first nation to immunize its population against the coronavirus. As of January 15, Israel has administered 24 doses per 100 people, the highest per-capita rate for any country by a large margin, according to Bloomberg. By comparison, the US has administered 3.6 doses per 100 people. The US's snail pace can be explained by states' lack of federal guidance and aid — Operation Warp Speed delivered vaccines in record time, but ultimately left it to individual states to figure out how to distribute their vaccine allotments. Experts like Dr. Peter Hotez, a molecular virologist from Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, also argue that the complicated CDC guidelines of which Americans should have priority access, and when, have scuttled the US's vaccination efforts."A massive vaccination campaign won't work with our current fussy and intricate criteria for who gets a shot and when," Hotez wrote in a piece for The Washington Post Monday. Israel chose to forgo priority tiers, and focused instead on vaccinating its older residents first — in the month since its roll out started, nearly 25% of Israel's 9 million-person population has received a dose.
COVID-19 testing capacity strained localities struggle with vaccine staffing - Local health departments struggling to find enough staff to carry out a massive vaccination campaign are finding that another key weapon against the coronavirus is being threatened: testing capacity. Health officials across the country are facing tough decisions on whether to close testing sites or cut back on hours because they don’t have enough funding or staff to administer both vaccinations and testing. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said he had spoken with health officials in Stamford, Conn., who “don’t have enough money right now to be able to both keep up their testing and distribute vaccine, so they're going to have to make a choice.” “That is absolutely devastating,” he said on a call hosted by Coronavirus War Room, a Democratic group. “I’m hearing that every place in the country,” Nicole Lurie, a former assistant secretary of Health and Human Services and an adviser to President-elect Joe Biden's team, said on a call with reporters. “There's just not enough personnel, enough bandwidth [to do both].” For example, Los Angeles closed its large testing site at Dodger Stadium, converting it instead into a vaccination site. The city acknowledged the move would “temporarily reduce testing capacity in L.A. County,” but on the other hand would “more than triple the number of daily vaccines available to be dispersed to Angelenos.” Collier County, Florida, closed most of its testing sites to make way for vaccine distribution, the local NBC affiliate reported. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has directed the state to find testing sites that can be shifted to vaccination locations. The tensions illustrate how local health departments that have long raised the alarm about funding shortages are now scrambling to secure resources for multiple monumental tasks against the pandemic at the same time. It is not clear exactly how much testing has been cut back nationwide, and some areas said they have been able to administer both tests and vaccines. But even vaccinating requires a surge of new staff. Congress provided $8.75 billion in vaccine distribution funding in the long-delayed package that was finally signed at the end of December. That measure also included $22 billion for testing and contact tracing. Advocates are hoping that money will soon start showing up at the local level.
‘Little old West Virginia’ sets pace on vaccine rollout -West Virginia has emerged as an unlikely success in the nation's otherwise chaotic vaccine rollout, largely because of the state's decision to reject a federal partnership with CVS and Walgreens and instead enlist mom-and-pop pharmacies to vaccinate residents against the virus that has killed over 395,000 Americans.More shots have gone into people’s arms per capita across West Virginia than in any other state, with at least 7.5% of the population receiving the first of two shots, according to federal data.West Virginia was the first in the nation to finish offering first doses to all long-term care centers before the end of December, and the state expects to give second doses at those facilities by the end of January. “I think the West Virginia model is really one that we would love for a lot more states to adopt,” said John Beckner, a pharmacist who works at the Alexandria, Virginia-based National Community Pharmacists Association, which advocates for pharmacies across the country.It's early in the process, but that has not stopped Republican Gov. Jim Justice from proclaiming that the vaccine effort runs counter to preconceived notions about the Mountaineer State.“Little old West Virginia, that was thought of for hundreds of years, you know, as a place where maybe we were backward or dark or dingy,” Justice said last week. Instead, it turns out that “West Virginia has been the diamond in the rough,” Justice said on CBS’ "Face the Nation" on Sunday.Rather than relying on national chains, 250 local pharmacists set up clinics in rural communities. The fact that residents who may be wary of the vaccine seem to trust them makes a difference. “As my uncle always told me, these people aren’t your customers, they’re your friends and neighbors,” said Ric Griffith, the pharmacist at Griffith & Feil in Kenova, a town near the Kentucky state line.
Vaccine Reserves White House Released Don’t Exist: Report -On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced that it was going to release the supply of COVID-19 vaccine doses it was holding in reserve to be used as second shots, days after President-elect Joe Biden announced his plan to do the same. But there is no reserve anymore, the WashingtonPost reported Friday: The Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed in charge of vaccine production had already begun shipping out that stockpile of second doses since the end of December.The Post story is but the latest scandal in the thus-far disastrous U.S. rollout of COVID-19 vaccines — and it wasn’t the only damning report to come out on Friday regarding the Trump administration’s mishandling of the rollout. According to The Wall Street Journal, Operation Warp Speed leaders waited two months to move forward on a CDC plan to start helping states prepare for the mass vaccination campaign. Regarding the depleted vaccine stockpile, the Post didn’t report any details about why the Trump administration made its (apparently bullshit) announcement on Tuesday, but the article did note the effect: Now, health officials across the country who had anticipated their extremely limited vaccine supply as much as doubling beginning next week are confronting the reality that their allocations will not immediately increase, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding access for millions of elderly people and those with high-risk medical conditions. Health officials in some cities and states were informed in recent days about the reality of the situation, while others are still in the dark.Because both of the vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States are two-dose regimens, the Trump administration’s initial policy was to hold back second doses to protect against the possibility of manufacturing disruptions. But that approach shifted in recent weeks, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. The result is that next week’s allocations will remain flat.
There are no extra COVID-19 vaccine doses left to send to states - America's vaccine cupboards are bare. Federal officials — who promised on Tuesday they were starting to release more doses of COVID-19 vaccines to states — don't actually have any surplus to give out, according to a new bombshell report from the Washington Post.The government said it had been previously stockpiling more than 50% of vaccine inventory, saving up enough second doses of COVID-19 shots from Pfizer and Moderna to ensure that everyone who had gotten one shot would be able to get their second booster on time, no matter what. (Both the Pfizer and the Moderna vaccines are given in two doses, administered three or four weeks apart.)But, in fact, the Trump administration was already "taking second doses directly off the manufacturing line," according to the Post's report.That grab-and-go strategy — of shipping out vaccine doses just as quickly as they were being manufactured — began in December for Pfizer's vaccine, and the same has been true for Moderna's shots since last weekend, according to the Post. After President-elect Biden promised last Friday that his administration would start releasing all available vaccine doses when he takes office next week, the Trump administration also announced it was pivoting to the same plan. The federal government also seemed to suggest that by releasing more doses in this way, the country would be able to vaccinate more people. US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar recommended on Tuesday that every state should expand its vaccine distribution parameters to include everyone 65 years old and older, as well as younger people with comorbidities.
Fauci says federal approval of Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca vaccines is ‘weeks away’ - President-elect Joe Biden’s goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans during his first 100 days in office got a seal of approval from the country’s top infectious disease expert on Sunday. “The feasibility of his goal is absolutely clear, there’s no doubt about it,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Advertisement He also voiced approval for steps Biden has outlined. The president-elect promised Friday to boost vaccine production and distribution as the coronavirus outbreak continues to rage. “What the president-elect is going to do is where need be,” Fauci said. Since last month, the U.S. has been using vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna. Fauci said he expects drugs made by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca to get federal approval soon. Advertisement “We’re weeks away, not months away,” he said..
The CDC’s Mission Impossible -Yves Smith -The Wall Street has a new exclusive story about the incoming head of the CDC, Rochelle Walensky, and her plans to greatly increase vaccination rates and restore faith in the agency. Dr. Walensky has an impressive background: the recent head of infectious diseases at Mass General, one of the top teaching hospitals in the US, where she was also a member of state advisory panels on Covid policy. Dr. Walensky will presumably be implementing the Biden Adminstration’s Covid-19 vaccine plans. Given Dr. Walensky’s not anticipating that she would be offered the leadership of the CDC, one has to assume she was not meaningfully involved in the development of this program.From WebMD’s summary, based on an announcement a few days ago: Biden outlined five major goals:
- Work with states to expand eligibility to anyone age 65 or older, and to essential workers, while continuing to vaccinate health care workers.
- Set up thousands of new federally-supported mass vaccination centers at gyms, stadiums and other locations—with 100 by the end of his first month in office– supported by the Federal Emergency Management Administration. FEMA will mobilize thousands of staff and contractors to work with state and local teams and the National Guard.
- Deploy mobile vaccination clinics to hard-to-reach underserved urban and rural areas, relying in part on community-based physicians.
- “Jumpstart” a federal partnership with pharmacies to increase capacity at chains and independent outlets.
- Use the Defense Production Act to help ensure uninterrupted production and delivery of vaccine and vaccine supplies. The aim is to release most vaccine supply when available, while keeping a small reserve to cover unforeseen shortages or delays.
Other elements were more napkin-doodles. Again from WebMD: The Biden plan would encourage states to allow additional qualified professionals to give vaccines. Biden said he envisions using military health care professionals, FEMA employees and staff from the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps to help expand the number of people who can give vaccines. He also said he would seek to allow certain qualified professionals, including retired medical workers who are not licensed to administer vaccines, to do so with appropriate training…. This is very ambitious, since it involves coordinating across Federal agencies, with state and local governments, hospitals, and major pharmacy chains. And at the same time, Walensky also plans to address the CDC’s damaged reputation. From the Wall Street Journal: Dr. Walensky vowed to restore public trust in the CDC, which surveys show sagged after the Trump administration interfered in decision making and the agency made its own mistakes, such as botching the rollout of a diagnostic test for detecting Covid-19…While it may seem churlish to express reservations at such an early stage, and it would be better if we were wrong, there are reasons to harbor doubts.
Science advisers: publish evidence behind COVID vaccine dosing strategy -- Coronavirus vaccines have arrived, and many countries have started their vaccination campaigns. The authorities face a race against time as infections and deaths from COVID-19 continue to rise in many parts of the world. It was with this in mind that the United Kingdom’s independent vaccine advisers recommended giving as many people as possible the first of the two vaccine doses required. That will mean delaying the delivery of each person’s second, ‘booster’ dose from three weeks after the first one to as much as three months later. The decision, by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), was announced on 30 December and endorsed by the chief medical officers of all four UK regions, where, at the time of writing, a new coronavirus variant is contributing to a sharp rise in deaths and COVID-19 infections. The decision so far applies to two of the three vaccines now approved for use in the United Kingdom — those made by Pfizer–BioNTech and the University of Oxford–AstraZeneca. In clinical trials, each was tested using two doses, given at least three weeks apart. The United Kingdom’s decision to extend the gap to three months has divided researchers. Pfizer–BioNTech say they do not have evidence of what happens to immunity beyond 21 days after the first dose. The World Health Organization recommends that the second dose of this vaccine be given no later than six weeks after the first, on the basis of available clinical-trial data. Other countries are studying the United Kingdom’s decision closely. There are reports that US president-elect Joe Biden’s COVID-19 advisers might recommend that the country provides the first dose of vaccine to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible. This strategy counts on projections that further supplies will arrive in time for boosters to be given on schedule. Proponents argue that offering a greater number of people some protection will save more lives overall than will giving more protection to fewer people. Others say that an emergency is not the time to alter vaccination protocols that have been established through clinical trials and confirmed by regulators.
Israel's Fauci says Pfizer vaccine's first dose less effective than indicated - A single dose of Pfizer’s vaccine may be less effective than the drugmaker had indicated, Israel’s COVID-19 czar has warned.Nachman Ash — Israel’s equivalent of Dr. Anthony Fauci — said the protection offered by the first dose is “less effective than we had thought,”Army Radio reported.“Many people have been infected between the first and second injections of the vaccine,” Ash said, adding that the protective effect appears “lower than [the data] presented by Pfizer.”The pharmaceutical giant has claimed that trials show it is roughly 52 percent effective around 12 days after receiving the first shot, the BBC reported.But that level of protection rises to 95 percent around two weeks after the second dose.It’s unclear exactly how effective the shot has been for the more than 2 million Israelis who have already received the first dose. Questions were raised about the vaccine’s performance after health officials on Monday announced 10,000 new cases, the highest since the pandemic began. Experts have repeatedly warned that one dose of the vaccine doesn’t provide full immunity and that social distancing measures will still need to be in place to get the pandemic under control.
55 Americans Have Died Following COVID Vaccination, Norway Deaths Rise To 29 - Amid increasing calls for suspension of the use of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines produced by companies such as Pfizer, especially among elderly people, the situation in Norway has escalated significantly as the Scandi nation has now registered a total of 29 deaths among people over the age of 75 who’ve had their first COVID-19 vaccination shot.As Bloomberg reports, this adds six to the number of known fatalities in Norway, and also lowers the age group thought to be affected from 80. Until Friday, Pfizer/BioNTech was the only vaccine available in Norway, and “all deaths are thus linked to this vaccine,” the Norwegian Medicines Agency said in a written response to Bloomberg on Saturday. “There are 13 deaths that have been assessed, and we are aware of another 16 deaths that are currently being assessed,” the agency said.All the reported deaths related to “elderly people with serious basic disorders,” it said.“Most people have experienced the expected side effects of the vaccine, such as nausea and vomiting, fever, local reactions at the injection site, and worsening of their underlying condition.”Norway’s experience has prompted the country to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill... the exact group that 'the science' shows are actually at risk from this virus.Pfizer and BioNTech are working with the Norwegian regulator to investigate the deaths in Norway, Pfizer said in an e-mailed statement. The agency found that “the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations,”Pfizer said.However, it's not just Norway as The Epoch Times' Zachary Stieber reports that fifty-five people in the United States have died after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, according to reports submitted to a federal system. Deaths have occurred among people receiving both the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines, according to the reports.
What to Know About Vaccine-Linked Deaths, Allergies -Like all new drugs, the vaccines that have been authorized to protect against Covid-19 come with some safety concerns and side effects. Many people who’ve received the first two Western shots deployed, one fromPfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, and another from Moderna Inc., have experienced fever, headache and pain at the site of the injection. These side effects generally disappear quickly. More worrisome, Norway has reported deaths among elderly people with serious underlying health conditions following administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine -- possibly linked to those side effects. A few other recipients of the various jabs have had a serious, but treatable, allergic reaction, called anaphylaxis.Thirty-three were reported in mid-January among some 42,000 people given the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Norway, where authorities have prioritized the immunization of nursing-home residents. Those who died were all in the “75 years +” bracket (exact ages weren’t given for privacy reasons) and included terminally ill patients anticipated to have only weeks or months to live. All deaths occurring within a few days of vaccination are carefully assessed. The deaths in Norway were associated with fever, nausea and diarrhea -- relatively common, short-lived effects that some people can experience after almost any vaccination, according to information relayed by Australia’s Therapeutics Administration. (It’s working with the European Medicines Agency, which includes Norway, before deciding whether to approve the drug in Australia.) The reactions aren’t expected to be of significance in the vast majority of people. Millions of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have been administered in the U.S., U.K. and some other countries with no deaths reported due to the vaccine, . It’s possible that common adverse reactions to vaccines that aren’t dangerous in fitter, younger patients may aggravate underlying disease in the elderly, Steinar Madsen, the Norwegian agency’s medical director, told The BMJ medical journal. Only a limited number of people older than 85 years participated in large clinical trials of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the agency said. The average trial participant for the two approved Western vaccines was in his or her early 50s.
Kansas nurses refuse to give COVID-19 vaccines - Coffee County in Kansas has roughly 8,500 residents, but they won’t be getting their COVID-19 shots from the county health department’s four nurses. Department chief Lindsay Payer and her staffers have opted out of giving the injections because they have doubts about the safety of the Moderna vaccine, which the county is offering, local TV station WIBW reported.Payer told WIBW that her employees made up their own minds and “not without considerable thought.” The county will hire at least one outside nurse, who will be paid with COVID-19 funds.“I will tell you we will have to contract staff…because my staff is not comfortable with that. It’s a new technology. We’ve never seen it before. It was only studied in 45 people before it was approved…,” Payer said. “It’s somewhat discomforting to a nurse who has to put that in people’s bodies.”
Nursing homes make big push to change minds of workers who refused vaccination --The pandemic has taken a deadly toll on A.G. Rhodes Cobb, a nursing home on the outskirts of Atlanta. Twelve residents have died after contracting Covid-19. Forty-four staff members have fallen ill. But despite their up-close look at the virus's impact, most workers at the facility have been reluctant to get vaccinated. At the three clinics held last month at A.G. Rhodes Cobb and two other facilities in Georgia run by the same company, about 30 percent of staff members chose to get vaccinated, while 57 percent of residents opted in, according to management."Some people think if you get the vaccine, you'll get sick. And some are afraid and distrusting of the government," said Sonya Williams, the activities director at A.G. Rhodes Cobb, who was vaccinated in late December. Williams, 42, is now encouraging her hesitant colleagues to do the same — pointing to her own experience as proof that the vaccine is safe. "The faster we can all get it, the faster we'll be able to move forward," she said. Nursing homes across the country are facing the same struggle, as workers have been more reluctant than residents to be vaccinated. Though rates vary widely, the American Health Care Association, which represents for-profit nursing homes, estimates that about 50 percent of long-term care staff members have been hesitant to get vaccinated. The majority of direct-care workers in nursing homes are people of color, who have generally been more hesitant to get vaccinated, based in part on their distrust of the federal government and the United States' history of medical racism.In Utah, 57 percent of long-term care workers have accepted the first dose, compared to 86 percent of residents, according to the state health department. As of early January, only 40 percent of nursing home workers in Ohio had elected to get vaccinated, according to figures cited by Gov. Mike DeWine. Last Monday, A.G. Rhodes announced it would offer raffle prizes including bonuses up to $500, TV sets and paid time off to staff members who receive the vaccination. The company is encouraging staff members who have already been inoculated to wear custom T-shirts advertising the fact. The administration has also held employee town halls to address questions, encouraging staff members to be vaccinated while stressing that it is not mandatory.
Morgues overflow, air quality restrictions on crematoriums suspended as Los Angeles County surpasses 1 million COVID-19 cases - On Saturday, Los Angeles County in southern California became the first in the United States to hit the grim record of 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic. The hospital systems in Los Angeles and surrounding cities are strained past their limits, with some operating at over 320 percent capacity, and the region is recording more than 250 deaths each day. Patients line corridors, hallways, gift shops, and cafeterias turned patient care, and fill parking lot tents. Los Angeles County is the starkest expression of the pandemic’s spread throughout the state of California. According to the state’s official dashboard, as of January 17, California has 2,942,475 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 33,392 deaths, the second highest toll in the US, behind New York. The crisis facing the nation’s most populous county, with more than 10 million residents, is deepening as the presence of the UK variant, which is predicted to be some 70 percent more transmissible, has been confirmed. There is no end in sight to this upward trend as over 20 percent of tests in Los Angeles County are coming back positive, pointing to rampant community spread. The county’s hospital morgues are so full that more than a dozen members of the California National Guard have been called in to help store corpses as funeral homes and mortuaries work through a backlog. A temporary morgue consisting of five 53-foot refrigerated trailers and a number of other containers were set up last week in a parking lot adjacent to the Los Angeles County Coroner’s building. As of Friday, over 2,700 bodies were being stored at hospitals and the coroner’s office. Just east of Los Angeles, Riverside County has also procured additional storage space to store bodies—10 refrigerated trailers, eight of which can store 50 bodies per trailer. There are so many deaths that air quality regulations for crematoriums in the county had to be suspended to keep up with the death toll and speed up cremations of bodies. On Sunday, the South Coast Air Quality Management District issued an executive order to suspend air quality regulations that currently limit the number of cremations. The official district order states that the current death rate is “more than double that of pre-pandemic years, leading to hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums exceeding capacity, without the ability to process the backlog.”
January 19 COVID-19 Test Results -- Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations. "The U.S. has administered 15.6 million doses" The testing data is probably still light due to the holiday, but it is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.There were 1,698,121 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 144,047 positive tests.Over 55,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.5% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still at a very high level.
As Death Rate Accelerates, U.S. Records 400,000 Lives Lost To The Coronavirus - While millions wait for a lifesaving shot, the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus continues to soar upward with horrifying speed. On Tuesday, the last full day of Donald Trump's presidency, the official death count reached 400,000 — a once-unthinkable number. More than 100,000 Americans have perished in the pandemic in just the past five weeks. In the U.S., someone now dies from COVID-19 every 26 seconds. And the disease is now claiming more American lives each week than any other condition, ahead of heart disease and cancer, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The U.S is now averaging more than 3,300 deaths a day — well above the most devastating days of the early spring surge when the daily average deaths hovered around 2,000. "At this point, looking at the numbers, for me the question is: Is there any way we can avoid half a million deaths before the end of February?" "I think of how much suffering as a nation we seem to be willing to accept that we have this number of people getting infected and dying every day." In rural America, the chance of dying from COVID-19 remains much higher than in the urban centers. People over 65 make up the overwhelming majority of deaths, but Jha says more young people are dying than earlier in the pandemic simply because the virus is so widespread. Galiatsatos still recalls a grandmother who was transported six hours from her home to his hospital — because there were no beds anywhere closer.On the phone, he heard her family's shock at her sudden passing. "They said: 'But she was so healthy, she cooked us all Thanksgiving dinner and we had all the family over,' " he says. "They were saying it with sincerity, but that's probably where she got it."
U.S. Hits 400,000 Covid Deaths as Biden Pledges to Boost Fight --The U.S. has recorded 400,000 Covid-19 deaths, a sobering milestone that comes as the nation prepares to inaugurate a new president who has pledged to speed up vaccine delivery and promote protective measures like mask-wearing as a patriotic duty. With more than 24 million Covid-19 infections, the U.S. has been the world leader in cases and deaths, contributing about a fifth of the more than 2 million fatalities reported globally. India and Brazil are next in line. Meanwhile, a more contagious variant of the virus is spreading among Americans and could become dominant by March, federal health officials have said, opening new concerns about Covid-19 outracing efforts to control it. President-elect Joe Biden, who will be sworn into office on Wednesday, has said beating the virus is his top priority. He’s scheduled to attend an event to remember victims of the coronavirus Tuesday at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. Biden has stressed that measures such as masking and social distancing are essential to control further spread, and said he’ll mandate their use wherever he can. He’s also announced plans to spend more than $400 billion to fight the pandemic and boost distribution of shots from the Pfizer Inc.--BioNTech SE partnership and Moderna Inc
4,131 people in the U.S. died from virus Wednesday for single-day record - The U.S. reported 4,131 coronavirus-related deaths Wednesday, setting a record for the most Covid-19 deaths recorded in a single day, according to an NBC News tally. The number of deaths Wednesday surpassed the previous record set Jan. 7, when 4,110 people in the U.S. were reported to have died from the coronavirus. The U.S. also recorded 178,935 new cases Wednesday.The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday that the eviction moratorium will be extended until at least March 31."The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a historic threat to our nation's health," CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky said in a statement. "It has also triggered a housing affordability crisis that disproportionately affects some communities. "Despite extensive mitigation efforts, COVID-19 continues to spread in America at a concerning pace," she continued. "We must act to get cases down and keep people in their homes and out of congregate settings — like shelters — where COVID-19 can take an even stronger foothold."
January 21 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations - Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations. "Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 18.4 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 939,973 doses per day were administered." Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months. The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,919,138 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 184,864 positive tests. Almost 64,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Ga officials expect more cases of variant — Georgia public health officials expect a new variant strain of the novel coronavirus to spread quickly. Dr. Kathleen Toomey, commissioner of the Georgia Department of Public Health, said the mutation had the ability to spread even more quickly than the more dominant strain that has ravaged the country and the world. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracked 144 cases of the mutated virus nationwide, including five cases in Georgia. The variant first cropped up in the United Kingdom. Cobb County health officials said they had identified a case of the new variant strain of the virus and had a growing concern about how infectious the mutation could be. “We have identified a case of the new variant strain of COVID-19 in Cobb County," Dr. Janet Memark, director of the Cobb County Department of Public Health, said in a statement. "Although it is not considered the predominant strain at this moment, there is an increasing concern for its high infectivity. This particular characteristic of the new variant strain is the reason that it is very important to continue with public health measures we know to work. This includes wearing a mask, watching your distance, washing your hands, and not gathering with groups of people.” Toomey said she anticipated more cases of the mutated coronavirus, also known as the B.1.1.7 variant, to pop up around the state. Earlier this month, the mutation was discovered during the analysis of a specimen sent by a pharmacy in Georgia to a commercial lab. “It is even easier to acquire COVID now going out in public spaces than before because with this variant it’s more easily spread," Toomey said. She said the new variant is sensitive to the vaccine, and she urged those eligible to try and obtain the vaccine to prevent spread and protect themselves from catching the new variant strain of coronavirus. Toomey feared an increase in cases could put more strain on healthcare resources, lead to more hospitalizations, and possibly more deaths.
New COVID-19 strain found in Tennessee, health leaders believe it will become the dominant strain by March — Two cases of the B117 variant strain of the COVID-19 virus, which has been observed to be more contagious than the original strain, has been identified in Tennessee and confirmed by the CDC, the Tennessee Department of Health confirmed on Thursday. “To date, two cases of the B117 variant strain of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in Tennessee and confirmed by the CDC, placing Tennessee among more than 20 U.S. states reporting COVID-19 cases caused by variants,” the Department of Health said in a statement. TDH Director Dr. Lisa Piercey said Friday, while they believe the strain will become more dominant due to it being more contagious, they do not believe it is "that big of a deal" -- saying this mutation was inevitable. Piercey believes this strain will become the dominant strain across the state, possibly as early as March, due to it being more easily transmitted. “Viruses constantly change and new variants are expected to occur over time. This does not change our response to COVID-19 in Tennessee, but serves as a reminder of the need for continued vigilance and practice of simple actions we can all take to prevent further spread of COVID-19: wash hands frequently, limit gatherings, maintain social distance, wear a mask in public and get vaccinated when you qualify to do so.” While the mutant strain is reportedly easier to spread, disease experts said it has not been observed to be any more or less dangerous when it infects someone. Experts also said current COVID-19 vaccines being administered appear to be effective with stopping this new strain. In an earlier report, the Tennessee Department of Health reported five cases had been reported in the state. Within the first week of 2021, at least 56 cases of the coronavirus variant had been identified in the United States.
New coronavirus strain may be behind California's surge - California scientists have discovered a homegrown coronavirus strain that appears to be propagating faster than any other variant on the loose in the Golden State. Two independent research groups said they stumbled upon the new strain while looking for signs that a highly transmissible variant from the United Kingdom had established itself here. Instead, they found a new branch of the virus’ family tree — one whose sudden rise and distinctive mutations have made it a prime suspect in California’s vicious holiday surge. As they pored over genetic sequencing data in late December and early January, the two teams saw evidence of the new strain’s prolific spread leap off their spreadsheets. Though focused on different regions of the state, they uncovered trends that were both remarkably similar and deeply worrying. Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020. In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type. “There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at UC San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.” The new strain, which scientists have dubbed B.1.426, bears five mutations in its genetic code. One of them, known as L452R, alters the virus’ spike protein, the tool it uses to infiltrate human cells and turn them into virus-making factories. Over multiple generations, even a small improvement in this ability will help a virus propagate more easily through a population, driving up infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Spotty surveillance efforts that use genetic sequencing to track changes in the virus had detected a single instance of B.1.426 in California way back in July. The team at Cedars-Sinai collected 192 viral samples from patients at the medical center between Nov. 22 and Dec. 28. At 11 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, they uploaded those samples to their genetic sequencer, which began to spit out the data over the first weekend of the new year. The strain’s sudden prominence elicited both wonder and sorrow. All thoughts quickly turned to the state’s calamitous COVID-19 surge — a run-up in illness and death that stressed hospitals to their limit, killed more than 18,000 Californians and doubled the state’s total death toll in the space of less than three months. Had they found the culprit? The preliminary evidence seemed damning. It was certainly found at the scene of the crime. Flummoxed health officials working to contain the outbreak had hypothesized that they were up against a new coronavirus strain with enhanced transmission capabilities.
Larry King dies: CNN legend, 87, had been hospitalized with COVID-19 -Larry King, the Brooklyn-bred man who became cable TV’s most well-known talk-show host, died Saturday. He was 87. King had been hospitalized with COVID-19. He passed away Saturday morning at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, according to Ora Media, a production company King founded with Mexican media mogul Carlos Slim. Over the course of more than five decades years in radio and TV broadcasting, half of it spent hosting CNN’s "Larry King Live," King mingled with the famous and infamous, and average people who became either. By his count, he interviewed well over 60,000 subjects, and when his run on cable ended in 2010, he segued to the Internet with "Larry King Now," a daily talk show on Hulu from Ora TV, and became an active presence on Twitter. He vowed never to retire and to keep interviewing until he died. But King was not immune to other illness: 30 years after undergoing quintuple heart bypass surgery, which prompted him to quit a lifelong three-pack-a-day cigarette habit and lose weight, a 2017 checkup revealed a cancerous lung tumor that was removed with surgery.
Coronavirus updates: 17% of US has been infected, model estimates; Capitol Police, National Guard outbreaks reported -- Approximately 17% of people in the U.S. have been infected with the coronavirus, a model by researches at the University of Washington estimates. Current data suggests that at least 7% of Americans have tested positive for COVID-19, but the model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation assumes that testing isn't detecting all of the cases present in the population. The model, updated Friday, estimates that the U.S. will report another 168,000 COVID-19 deaths before May, bringing the total to 569,000 deaths. In that period, at least 40 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds, and 46 will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity, according to the model. Taking public health precautions can help lower those devastating projections. If nearly everyone wears a face mask between now and May, 22,000 fewer people will die from COVID-19, the model estimates. "A lot of America is hurting. The virus is surging. We're 400,000 dead, expected to reach well over 600,000," President Joe Biden said Friday, adding, "The bottom line is this. We are in a national emergency." About 4.9% of people in the U.S. have received at least one COVID-19 shot, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 0.8% of people have received both doses of the vaccine, and about 52.1% of the shots distributed haven't been used yet. In Alaska, nearly 10% of residents have received a first dose – the highest rate of any state.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its guidance on vaccinations Friday to say the second dose of a two-shot vaccine can be administered up to 6 weeks after the first. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Friday that the new U.K. coronavirus variant may be deadlier than the previous dominant variant, in addition to being more contagious. At least 38 U.S. Capitol Police officers have tested positive for the coronavirus since the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, according to the police union. Dozens of members of the National Guard who were in Washington D.C., have also tested positive, according to reports from at least five outlets.
U.S. CDC says 41.4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines distributed, 20.5 million administered (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it had administered 20,537,990 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 41,411,550 doses. The tally of vaccine doses are for both Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines as of 6:00 a.m. ET on Saturday, the agency said. The agency said 17,390,345 people had received one or more doses, while 3,027,865 people got the second dose as of Saturday. A total of 2,437,670 vaccine doses have been administered in long-term care facilities, the agency said. According to the tally posted on Jan. 22, the agency had administered 19,107,959 doses of the vaccines, and distributed 39,892,400 doses.
Vaccine Disparities Raise Alarm as Covid Variants Multiply - Global gaps in access to Covid-19 vaccines are raising concerns that the continued spread of the coronavirus will breed more dangerous versions of the pathogen, weakening medical weapons and further crippling economies. In a race to catch up with emerging coronavirus variants, wealthy countries are already benefiting from potent vaccines. While the U.S., Britain and European Union have given citizens about 24 million doses so far -- more than half of the shots administered globally -- vast numbers of countries have yet to begin their campaigns. Disparities in immunity pose a threat to both have and have-not states. Giving the coronavirus an opportunity to advance and generate new mutants would have significant economic and public-health consequences, adding to the pain as the death toll surpasses 2 million. “We cannot leave parts of the world without access to vaccines because it’s just going to come back to us,” said Charlie Weller, head of vaccines at health research foundation Wellcome. “That puts everyone around the world at risk.” Countries are relying on effective immunizations to save lives and revive businesses. The World Bank’s projection for 4% growth this year depends on widespread deployment of vaccines. Surging Covid cases and a delay to the delivery of inoculations, however, could limit expansion to just 1.6%. High-income countries have secured 85% of Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine and all of Moderna Inc.’s, according to London-based research firm Airfinity Ltd. Much of the world will be counting on U.K. drugmaker AstraZeneca Plc, whose vaccine is cheaper and easier to distribute, along with other manufacturers such as China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd.
WHO head blasts vaccine inequalities, hits drugmakers over profits - The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) condemned what he called inequity in global vaccine distribution during the international group's executive board meeting on Monday. The Associated Press reports WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus bemoaned that one poorer country, identified by a WHO spokesperson as Guinea, had only received 25 coronavirus vaccines doses thus far while almost 50 wealthier nations had already administered around 40 million doses. “Just 25 doses have been given in one lowest income country — not 25 million, not 25,000 — just 25. I need to be blunt: The world is on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure,” said Tedros, who goes by his first name. “It’s right that all governments want to prioritize vaccinating their own health workers and older people first. But it’s not right that younger, healthier adults in rich countries are vaccinated before health workers and older people in poorer countries. There will be enough vaccine for everyone," added Tedros. “Vaccines are the shot in the arm we all need, literally and figuratively,” he said, praising the achievement of creating a vaccine less than a year after the pandemic broke out around the world. “But we now face the real danger that even as vaccines bring hope to some, they become another brick in the wall of inequality between the worlds of the world’s haves and have-nots.” According to Tedros, COVAX, a program supported by WHO that seeks to distribute vaccines to all countries based on need, has secured 2 billion vaccines from five producers. Deliveries are expected to begin in February. Tedros castigated vaccine makers for appearing to prioritize profits over accessibility, saying, "The situation is compounded by the fact that most manufacturers have prioritized regulatory approval in rich countries, where the profits are highest, rather than submitting full dossiers to WHO." Last week the pandemic surpassed 2 million coronavirus-related deaths as multiple new strains continue to crop up around the world such as in the U.K., South Africa and Japan.
Putin says Russia to start mass vaccinations next week - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday tasked officials with launching mass coronavirus vaccinations from next week, touting Russia's homemade jab as the world's best. After being the first country to register a vaccine for use, Russia is looking to leap ahead of other countries in the race to inoculate its population of 146 million. Russia in August registered Sputnik V—named after the Soviet-era satellite—months ahead of Western competitors but before the start of large-scale clinical trials, which left some experts wary. "I ask you to begin the mass vaccination of the entire population next week," Putin told officials at a televised government meeting. "The Russian vaccine is the best in the world," he added. Putin said Russia should "get relevant infrastructure ready" to boost production of the vaccine, which Moscow is promoting to other countries as cheaper and easier to transport than others jabs. "Thank God our vaccine does not require extreme conditions during transportation," Putin said. "This is much simpler and more effective," he added, referring to Western-made jabs. Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova told Putin during the meeting that Russia was ready to launch the mass vaccination from Monday. "We will have to pretty seriously ramp up the vaccination campaign," Golikova added, noting that more than 2 million doses will be made available by the end of January.
Brazil rushes to save premature babies as Covid-19 swamps Manaus hospitals - Authorities in the Brazilian Amazon are reportedly racing to save dozens of premature babies after a surge in coronavirus cases caused a catastrophic breakdown in the oxygen supply to hospitals and clinics.On Friday, CNN Brasil reported that the northern state of Amazonas was seeking to transfer at least 60 babies from neonatal units in its capital, Manaus, to hospitals elsewhere in the country.The emergency request to other state governments came as Brazil’s air forcebegan evacuating coronavirus patients from the riverside city after a deadly interruption in the oxygen supply on Thursday morning.That outage – caused by a sudden jump in hospital admissions that meant oxygen demand dramatically outstripped supply – left doctors and nurses desperately battling to save Covid patients with manual ventilation. Those who could not be saved were reportedly given morphine and the sedative midazolam to reduce their suffering.“This is an unprecedented calamity,” Jesem Orellana, a local epidemiologist, told the Guardian. “In the coming hours Manaus is going to be the protagonist of one of the saddest chapters of the Covid-19 epidemic in the world.”Manaus was one of the worst-hit Latin American cities in the first wave of the epidemic last April, with authorities forced to dig mass graves. On Friday, there was growing anger at the state and federal governments for failing to avert or prepare for what medical professionals called a tragedy foretold. Much of the indignation was directed at Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly downplayed the epidemic and undermined containment measures. Key Bolsonaro supporters, including his politician son Eduardo, had voiced support for protesters who took to the streets of Manaus last month and managed to overturn state government efforts to impose a lockdown.
Brazil airlifts emergency oxygen to Manaus amid COVID surge - Brazil’s Air Force has delivered emergency supplies of oxygen to the jungle state of Amazonas, and premature babies were to be airlifted to other states from local hospitals overwhelmed by a devastating new surge in COVID-19 cases. Doctors were using their own vehicles to transport patients, as Manaus residents sought to buy oxygen tanks on the black market, local media reported. Desperate relatives, protesting outside city hospitals, said patients had been taken off ventilators as oxygen ran out. Sao Paulo Governor JoĂŁo Doria said some 60 premature babies in incubators needed to be relocated to other parts of Brazil, while officials said hospitals needed three times more oxygen than was available.Manaus was one of the first cities to reel from the pandemic in Brazil, which has the world’s second-highest COVID-19 death toll after the United States. Critics of President Jair Bolsonaro said the grim situation there was just the latest example of his poor handling of the crisis. The country has yet to begin vaccinations, is dealing with a snowballing second wave and a new, potentially more contagious, coronavirus variant that originated in Amazonas and prompted Britain on Thursday to bar entry to Brazilians. Bolsonaro, a far-right former army captain who has downplayed the pandemic and opposed stricter social controls to halt its spread, said on Friday the government had already done what it could in Manaus. “The problem is terrible there. Now, we have done our part,” he told supporters outside the presidential palace, adding that the military was installing a temporary hospital.Critics drew parallels between the lack of oxygen and the failure to begin vaccinations in Latin America’s biggest country. The government wants to start administering shots next week but has yet to announce an official start date.
Notes on Covid: New Variants in Brazil and South Africa, Herd Immunity Fails in Manaus, Success in Vietnam - New variants: The Brazilian and South-African ones are even more worrying than the UK one, as they seem to partly escape immunity. Like the UK one, these two variants contain the N501Y mutation in the Spike protein which probably contributes to its higher rates of transmission.However, they also contain a new mutation E484K in Spike, which in a recent lab study was shown to strongly reduce neutralization by antibodies from plasma of donors that had recovered from Covid. With the caveats that sample size was small and there was a lot of variation between individuals, this is bad news. Why? Because it might mean that natural and vaccine-derived immunity against this variant could be lower or less long-lasting compared to the other virus variants. While this is still in the realm of (informed) speculation, it would mean that a) reinfection could be more likely or quicker, and b) vaccines might be less efficient or long-lasting.Here is the non-peer-reviewed paper, and the author explaining:Not sure if it was the same study, but this mutation was identified in someone who was reinfected after 5 months: Note that the same mutations arising and rapidly spreading independently in several locations strongly suggests they have a selective advantage. The variants arose and spread in countries where the epidemic has been very severe (UK, Brazil, South Africa, new ones in USA), and there are indications that they arose in chronically infected immunocompromised patients that were treated with plasma. The reduced immune capacity of these patients kept the virus population alive, while the plasma provided strong selection to escape immunity. Basically, with the uncontrolled spread of this virus we’re providing it with lots and lots and lots of incubators to evolve. I am speculating here, but I wonder whether having a sizable population that’s been given just one vaccine dose might also increase selection pressure for escape variants. Herd immunity is even harder to achieve than previously thought. Manaus was devastated in the first wave, in a mostly uncontrolled epidemic, but despite a whopping 76% of the population having been infected and mass death, herd immunity was not achieved: I strongly encourage you to read the very accessible write-up by Prof. Devi Sridhar and Dr. Deepti Gurdasani quoted above. The original technical article is here. A lesson from Vietnam in how to do contact tracing and quarantining. From the CDC: When 27 staff members in the catering company [of BMH hospital] tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the entire BMH staff (7,664 persons) was put under quarantine. Contact tracing in the community resulted in an additional 52,239 persons being quarantined. After 3 weeks, the hospital outbreak was contained; no further spread occurred in the hospital. And quarantine actually means quarantine, none of that UK voluntary stuff that no-one adheres to: All arrivals have to spend their quarantine at army-run camps or hospital facilities that are free of charge. Food expenses for foreign nationals are reportedly about double that of locals — the government is aware of diet differences and has made efforts to accommodate them by adding sausages and milk, thus increasing the cost.Note that Vietnam – a poor country close to China with a population of almost 100 million – has had a total number of 35 (thirty-five) Covid deaths.
Norway Raises Concern Over Vaccine Jabs for the Elderly -Norway expressed increasing concern about the safety of the Pfizer Inc. vaccine on elderly people with serious underlying health conditions after raising an estimate of the number who died after receiving inoculations to 29. The latest figure adds six to the number of known fatalities in Norway, and lowers the age group thought to be affected to 75 from 80. While it’s unclear exactly when the deaths occurred, Norway has given at least one dose to about 42,000 people and focused on those considered most at risk if they contract the virus, including the elderly. Until Friday, the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech SE was the only one available in Norway, and “all deaths are thus linked to this vaccine,” the Norwegian Medicines Agency said in a written response to Bloomberg on Saturday. “There are 13 deaths that have been assessed, and we are aware of another 16 deaths that are currently being assessed,” the agency said. All the reported deaths related to “elderly people with serious basic disorders,” it said. “Most people have experienced the expected side effects of the vaccine, such as nausea and vomiting, fever, local reactions at the injection site, and worsening of their underlying condition.” Official reports of allergic reactions have been rare as governments rush to roll out vaccines to try to contain the global pandemic. U.S. authorities reported 21 cases of severe allergic reactions from Dec. 14-23 after administration of about 1.9 million initial doses of the Pfizer vaccine. The first Europe-wide safety report on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is due to be published at the end of January.
Norway Moves to Calm Vaccine Anxiety After Elderly Deaths - Health authorities in Norway sought to allay safety concerns raised by the death of some elderly patients after they were vaccinated against Covid-19, saying there’s no evidence of a direct link. The initial reports from Norway raised alarm as the world looks for early signs of potential side effects from the vaccines. Although doctors say it’s possible that vaccine side-effects could aggravate underlying illnesses, they were expecting nursing-home residents to die shortly after being vaccinated because deaths are more common among the frailest and sickest elderly patients. “Clearly, Covid-19 is far more dangerous to most patients than vaccination,” Steinar Madsen, medical director at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, said by phone on Monday, adding that a connection between the vaccine and the deaths is difficult to prove. “We are not alarmed.” In Norway, 33 people aged 75 and over died following immunization, according to the agency’s latest figures. All were already seriously ill, it said. The Scandinavian country has already inoculated almost all of its nursing home population, with more than 48,000 people vaccinated as of Monday afternoon. The reported fatalities are well under 1 out of 1,000 nursing-home patients to be vaccinated, he said. The side effects of immunization can, in some cases, “tip the patients into a more serious course of the underlying disease,” Madsen said. “We can’t rule that out.” Other countries, including Germany and Israel, have also reported deaths in people who recently were vaccinated, without identifying causal links. Hong Kong’s government-appointed vaccine advisory panel said Monday that it’s seeking more data from the Norwegian and German governments on incidents involving the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, which has been approved in the territory. Experts on vaccines and aging had predicted early on that deaths after vaccinations in high-risk patients might cause confusion. “Frail, older adults die, and die often, and I don’t think people realize that,” said Keipp Talbot, an associate professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University who advises the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccine use. “My concern was that we would introduce vaccine, and people would think it was killing people.” Talbot was the only person on the CDC advisory panel to recommend against offering Covid-19 vaccines first to old and sick people in nursing homes -- not because she was concerned they’d be harmed, she said, but because she was concerned that inevitable deaths shortly after shots would lower trust in the vaccines. Talbot said she also thought it might be a better use of scarce supplies to immunize the people surrounding the old and sick.
Spanish hospitals on brink of collapse as COVID-19 cases explode - Coronavirus cases in Spain have continued to rocket upwards, as the country registered its highest-ever number of daily cases on Friday: 40,197 infections in a single day. This exceeded a record set only two days earlier, on Wednesday, of 38,869 new cases. Thursday also saw exceptionally high figures, with 35,878 infections recorded in the official government count. Prior to the explosion of cases last week, the highest-ever number of daily infections had been recorded on October 30, with 25,592 new positive tests. As of Friday, a total of 2,252,164 coronavirus infections had been detected in Spain and 53,314 deaths. This is despite a significant drop in the number of tests being conducted. In the week ending January 8, only 804,158 coronavirus tests were carried out, compared to well over a million tests (1,205,303) in the week ending November 5—at the height of infections in the autumn. Amid this surge in the pandemic doctors and other medical professionals are warning that hospitals are on the brink of collapse as admissions to intensive care units rise rapidly. Within a couple of days, hospital occupancy will exceed the worst figures recorded during the height of the pandemic in November last year, if the current trend continues. Since Christmas, hospitalisations for COVID-19 have increased by around 70 percent and intensive care unit (ICU) occupation rates have gone up by nearly 50 percent. Medical facilities are being forced to ration care and postpone routine activities to cope with the demands placed on them by the surge in coronavirus cases. “Many hospitals are delaying part of their non-covid activity, especially surgery that requires an ICU in the postoperative period,” Hospitals in the region of Valencia have been forced to suspend routine operations and non-urgent diagnostic tests in order to respond to the new surge in coronavirus admissions. The regional government has also called for 280 more beds to be made available in field hospitals. In Catalonia and Galicia, hospitals are also warning that they may soon be overwhelmed and are beginning to cancel scheduled operations.Spanish hospitals now have around 800 more patients in critical condition than a month ago. In many regions, over 40 percent of all patients in ICUs had been admitted for COVID-19: the Balearic Islands (41.04 percent), Catalonia (42.38), La Rioja (45 percent) and Valencia (48.09 percent).
Surge in COVID-19 on UK’s Isle of Wight overwhelms health care infrastructure - COVID-19 infection rates have risen so sharply that the Isle of Wight’s medical director has planned “unthinkable options” to meet the crisis, including using military helicopters to transport patients to the mainland.Ambulance demand is up 40 percent on this period last year. The island’s one hospital, St Mary’s, has seen a fourfold increase of Covid patients since Christmas and is in danger of being overwhelmed. Stephen Parker, medical director of the island’s National Health Service (NHS) Trust, has warned this could be imminent: “If the NHS is going to be overwhelmed, it is going to be in the next two to four weeks.”The island, with a population of 140,000, lies off the south coast of England. Its offshore isolation was hailed as one of the safest places in the country for much of last year. When Boris Johnson’s Conservative government introduced its inadequate new tier system of restrictions in November, the island was one of only a handful of places in the lowest Tier 1.But in the second wave of the pandemic, shortly before Christmas, after a rapid rise in infections, it was elevated straight to Tier 3, and placed in Tier 4 a week later. A month after being classed in the lowest risk category, a 71-fold increase in cases gave it the 13th highest infection rate across the UK.By January 15, the island had seen 4,770 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Of these 3,091—nearly 65 percent—have been recorded in 2021. Since January 1, there have been 20 more deaths recorded in hospital where the person had either tested positive for Covid-19 or had Covid-19 on their death certificate, taking the cumulative total to 113. By January 5, St Mary’s Hospital in the island’s principal town, Newport, had 40 confirmed Covid-19 patients with five on mechanical ventilation.As of January 12, there were 66 COVID patients in St Mary’s, compared to 40 the week before. From the beginning of the pandemic to January 3, St Mary’s had treated 355 patients. A week later this had risen to 424. While 90 percent of the current cases are being attributed to the new variant of the virus, which is more transmissible than the earlier strain, the catastrophic and worsening situation is not just, or even primarily, a medical question. The government’s over-riding concern has not been to combat and control the virus, but to keep businesses open and profits rolling in, facilitating its spread.
Ukraine begs Europe for coronavirus vaccine - Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky begged Europe’s richest countries last week for assistance in obtaining coronavirus vaccines as the virus continues to rip through the country’s impoverished population. Meeting with newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Kiev, Zelensky said that countries like Ukraine and Moldova, which are part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program, “should be given increased attention by the EU states in matters of joint procurement procedures and accelerating the supply of vaccines.” The Eastern European country of approximately 42 million has reported over 1.2 million cases and 20,000 dead due to the pandemic. The ongoing recession may push more than 9 million people in the country into “extreme poverty,” according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The fact that the virus continues to ravage the population is a direct result of the policies of the Zelensky government which, like its counterparts across Europe and the Americas, has pursued a policy of “herd immunity.” Despite seeing daily case rates as high as 15,000 per day and the overwhelming of the country’s short-staffed and decaying hospitals, the Ukrainian government refused to enforce any quarantine measures during the holidays. Instead, it waited until after Orthodox Christmas on January 7 to implement a limited two-week lockdown. As the country’s working class and elderly continue to disproportionately suffer the effects of the pandemic, the country’s ruling oligarchy has subordinated its vaccination efforts to the whims of Western imperialism, refusing to purchase the more readily available Sputnik V from neighboring Russia. US and European imperialism orchestrated a coup in Kiev in 2014 with the help of far-right forces under the fraudulent pretext of supporting “democracy.” Subsequent Ukrainian governments have conducted a civil war against Russian-backed separatists in East Ukraine and have stood at the forefront of military provocations against Russia in the Black Sea region. At the same time, they have implemented aggressive austerity measures against the Ukrainian working class which have pushed millions deeper into poverty and have signified further devastating cuts to the health care system. Now, while still providing military backing to the Kiev government in the civil war in East Ukraine, the US and NATO powers are refusing to provide even minimal vaccine assistance to what has become the poorest country in Europe.
China builds 1,500-room hospital in five days amid COVID surge - China is throwing up instant hospitals again to deal with its latest surge of COVID-19 patients. A 1,500-room hospital to treat people with the coronavirus was finished Saturday after just five days of construction. The hospital is one of six with a total of 6,500 rooms being built in Nangong, south of Beijing in Hebei province, The Associated Press reported. Another 3,000-room hospital is under construction in Shijiazhuang, the capital of the Hebei province. After largely containing the virus that emerged in the central city of Wuhan in December 2019, China is seeing a new wave of infections that it apparently expects to get worse. A total of 645 people are currently being treated in Nangong, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said. Virus clusters were also found in Beijing and other provinces. The speed at which the new hospitals are being built echoes the six-day effort that built several hospitals in Wuhan last January and February. The government said the latest cases are spreading unusually fast, and blamed the latest surge on infected people or goods from abroad. “It is harder to handle,” a government statement said, according to The Independent. “Community transmission already has happened when the epidemic is found, so it is difficult to prevent.” Also Saturday, the city government of Beijing said travelers arriving in the Chinese capital from abroad would be required to undergo an additional week of “medical monitoring” after a 14-day quarantine but gave no details.
Chinese city reports coronavirus found on ice cream (AP) — The coronavirus was found on ice cream produced in eastern China, prompting a recall of cartons from the same batch, according to the government. The Daqiaodao Food Co., Ltd. in Tianjin, adjacent to Beijing, was sealed and its employees were being tested for the coronavirus, a city government statement said. There was no indication anyone had contracted the virus from the ice cream. Most of the 29,000 cartons in the batch had yet to be sold, the government said. It said 390 sold in Tianjin were being tracked down and authorities elsewhere were notified of sales to their areas. The ingredients included New Zealand milk powder and whey powder from Ukraine, the government said. The Chinese government has suggested the disease, first detected in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019, came from abroad and has highlighted what it says are discoveries of the coronavirus on imported fish and other food, though foreign scientists are skeptical.
China says latest COVID-19 outbreak caused by imported cases (Reuters) - China’s recent COVID-19 outbreaks in the northeast have come from travelers entering the country or contaminated frozen food imports, the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Saturday. NHC Minister Ma Xiaowei made the comments at a government meeting, where he also said the virus was spreading to rural areas and that the handling of the recent situation had exposed how prevention and control measures had been relaxed. “Since Dec. 2020, epidemic clusters have occurred in Beijing, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hebei and Heilongjiang,” a statement posted on the NHC’s website said citing the briefing by Ma. “They mainly have the following characteristics. Firstly, they are all imported from abroad, caused by travelers from overseas, or contaminated cold-chain imported items.” Total case numbers remain well below what China saw at the height of the outbreak in early 2020, but concerns about a new wave are growing with the Lunar New Year a month away. This surge comes as a World Health Organization-led (WHO) team of investigators are in quarantine in the city of Wuhan, where the disease was first detected in late 2019. The team aims to investigate the origins of the pandemic that has now killed 2 million people worldwide. China is the only country to claim COVID-19 can be transmitted via cold chain imports, even though the WHO has downplayed the risks, and has been pushing a narrative via state media that the virus existed abroad before it was discovered late last year in the central city of Wuhan. The country has in the past week seen the number of daily cases jump to an over 10-month high, and for Jan. 15 reported 130 new coronavirus cases in the mainland, versus 144 cases a day earlier. Of those cases, 115 were local infections, 90 of which were in Hebei province surrounding Beijing that has been hit hardest in the latest wave. Another 23 cases were found in northeastern Heilongjiang province while two cases were reported in Beijing. The authority also reported 79 new asymptomatic patients, which it does not classify as confirmed cases, were found on Jan. 15 compared with 66 a day earlier. About 28 million people have been put under lockdown so far as a result and Ma said the latest outbreak had quickly spread widely due to activities such as wedding banquets or large group gatherings, and that it was difficult to control as community transmission had already occurred when cases were discovered. Beijing will begin requiring travelers from abroad to undergo health monitoring for seven additional days following 21 days of medical observation, Xinhua reported on Saturday, quoting the authorities as saying, but did not provide detail on the health monitoring requirement. The city extended its quarantine period for inbound travelers to 21 days earlier this month.
Philippines records first case of new COVID-19 strain -- An infection of the more transmissible British strain of the coronavirus was officially confirmed in the Philippines for the first time last Wednesday, threatening a more disastrous stage of the pandemic for the second-worst hit country in South-East Asia. The Philippines joins at least 51 other countries and territories that have recorded a case of the variant, including Singapore, Hong Kong and China. The infection was detected in a 27-year-old old real estate agent who had recently returned from a business trip to Dubai with his partner. On January 7, the couple returned on an Emirates flight and were placed in quarantine and swab tested. On January 8, the man tested positive for the original strain and contracted a cough. He was transferred to an isolation facility, where it was discovered through an X-Ray that he had developed pneumonia. It was not until the results were sent to the Philippine Genome Centre (PGC) for full genomic sequencing that the new B.1.1.7 strain was confirmed on January 13. Both residents of Quezon City had tested negative prior to leaving the Philippines and upon arrival in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is still unclear when and where the infection took place, given that the UAE is yet to detect its first case of the new strain. The Philippine Department of Health acquired the flight manifesto pertaining to the patient and is now scrambling to contact those who were on board. Currently there is one flight passenger missing, a resident of Quezon City, who left incorrect contact details. The UAE and Hungary have now been included on a travel ban of 33 countries, which was extended on Friday from the 15th to the 31st. Only Filipinos are able to arrive from the list of countries, but they must be placed in 14-day quarantine and tested. In addition, the government announced it is now compulsory for travellers from all countries to be tested and to undergo genome sequencing to identify the new strains.
United Kingdom COVID-19 variant reaches New Zealand - Despite New Zealand’s fabricated reputation as a haven from the global coronavirus pandemic, its isolation facilities are now housing the highly-transmissible UK variant of COVID-19 and another strain associated with South Africa. Twenty-eight new COVID-19 cases arrived in four days last week. An earlier spike of 35 cases up to January 11 included people who had arrived from India, the UK, Zimbabwe, Austria, Russia, Poland, Ukraine and the US. Nineteen cases are from a group of 190 international mariners who arrived from Singapore and the UAE early this month. As of January 17, the total number of active cases is 82, from a total of 1,900. Almost a quarter of live cases are the UK variant, with that number expected to sharply increase. At least 19 cases in official isolation are linked to this variant, which is believed to be up to 70 percent more infectious than the previous strain. The Ministry of Health reported the first case of the South African variant on January 10, although it had arrived at the border on December 26. While less is known about this strain, it is considered more transmissible than the original but less so than the UK variant. The surge in more infectious strains echoes the situation in Australia where Brisbane, the third largest city, recently enforced a three-day emergency lockdown after a cleaner contracted the UK COVID-19 variant from inside the hotel quarantine system. Repeated failures to implement basic preventive measures have seen multiple clusters erupting from quarantine hotels into the general population. While no community cases have been reported in New Zealand since November, health experts have expressed alarm about the arrival of the new variants. Auckland University microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles warned that the new strains “would spread like wildfire.” Wiles told the New Zealand Herald the UK variant has a “founder effect.” That is, a mutant takes off not because it is more infectious, but because it is the one that people who are infectious have. According to reports from Britain, much younger patients are becoming very ill very fast.
'We're In A Race Against Time' As Mutations On The Rise - The race against the virus that causes COVID-19 has taken a new turn: Mutations are rapidly popping up, and the longer it takes to vaccinate people, the more likely it is that a variant that can elude current tests, treatments and vaccines could emerge. The coronavirus is becoming more genetically diverse, and health officials say the high rate of new cases is the main reason. Each new infection gives the virus a chance to mutate as it makes copies of itself, threatening to undo the progress made so far to control the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization urged more effort to detect new variants. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a new version first identified in the United Kingdom may become dominant in the U.S. by March. Although it doesn't cause more severe illness, it will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths just because it spreads much more easily, said the CDC, warning of "a new phase of exponential growth." "We're taking it really very seriously," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious disease expert, said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." "We need to do everything we can now ... to get transmission as low as we possibly can," said Harvard University's Dr. Michael Mina. "The best way to prevent mutant strains from emerging is to slow transmission." So far, vaccines seem to remain effective, but there are signs that some of the new mutations may undermine tests for the virus and reduce the effectiveness of antibody drugs as treatments. "We're in a race against time" because the virus "may stumble upon a mutation" that makes it more dangerous, said Dr. Pardis Sabeti, an evolutionary biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. Younger people may be less willing to wear masks, shun crowds and take other steps to avoid infection because the current strain doesn't seem to make them very sick, but "in one mutational change, it might," she warned. Sabeti documented a change in the Ebola virus during the 2014 outbreak that made it much worse. It's normal for viruses to acquire small changes or mutations in their genetic alphabet as they reproduce. Ones that help the virus flourish give it a competitive advantage and thus crowd out other versions. In March, just a couple months after the coronavirus was discovered in China, a mutation called D614G emerged that made it more likely to spread. It soon became the dominant version in the world. Now, after months of relative calm, "we've started to see some striking evolution" of the virus, biologist Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle wrote on Twitter last week. "The fact that we've observed three variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to come." One was first identified in the United Kingdom and quickly became dominant in parts of England. It has now been reported in at least 30 countries, including the United States. Soon afterward, South Africa and Brazil reported new variants, and the main mutation in the version identified in Britain turned up on a different version "that's been circulating in Ohio ... at least as far back as September," said Dr. Dan Jones, a molecular pathologist at Ohio State University who announced that finding last week. "The important finding here is that this is unlikely to be travel-related" and instead may reflect the virus acquiring similar mutations independently as more infections occur, Jones said. That also suggests that travel restrictions might be ineffective, Mina said. Because the United States has so many cases, "we can breed our own variants that are just as bad or worse" as those in other countries, he said.
Highly transmissible U.K. virus strain is also 30% more lethal, Boris Johnson warns - The mutant coronavirus strain that first emerged in recent months in the U.K. is 30% more deadly than original virus, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Friday. Previously, the U.K. government had said that this particular virus strain spread much more easily than the original version of SARS-CoV-2, the virus the causes COVID-19, but that it did not believe it was any more lethal. Friday's announcement reverses that assessment. A panel of scientists that advises the British government on the threat posed by emerging respiratory viruses made the new assessment based on data from people testing positive who subsequently died in the U.K. It concluded that there was a 1.3-fold increase in the risk of death, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London who sits on the advisory body, told Britain's ITV News. Ferguson said that this meant that for every 1,000 people aged 60 who contracted the new strain of the virus, 13 would likely die, compared to 10 with the original strain. The U.K. is currently facing the highest daily death tolls since the pandemic began. On Wednesday, 1,820 were reported dead after testing positive for COVID-19 in the U.K., a record high. Since the pandemic began, more than 94,500 people have died in the U.K. from the virus, and the country has the highest death toll per capita of any major country. Vallance has said that the new strain, which emerged in southern England in October, is between 30% and 70% more transmissible than the original virus. That increase was a major rationale for the new national lockdown in Britain. Meanwhile, many other nations, including the U.S., have imposed much more stringent travel restrictions on arrivals from the U.K., in most cases requiring negative COVID tests of all travelers. In an evening press conference Friday, Johnson was at pains to emphasize that the new findings about the mutant strain's lethality did not change scientists' assessments that the coronavirus vaccines currently being used in the U.K. would still be highly effective against the mutant strain. The British government has approved three coronavirus vaccines so far, including those produced by Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna. To date, 5.38 million Britons, or about 8% of the country's population, have received one dose of either the Pfizer or the AstraZeneca vaccine. But it is also thought that about 1 in every 55 people in England is currently infected with coronavirus, according to Chris Whitty, the government's chief medical officer.
South African SARS-CoV-2 variant escapes antibody neutralization -- Researchers in South Africa have conducted a study showing that the novel 501Y.V2 variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that has emerged in the country is able to escape the neutralizing antibodies that are elicited by previously circulating strains of the virus. SARS-CoV-2 is the agent responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that is currently sweeping the globe, devastating public health and the global economy.The study found that the 501Y.V2 lineage also conferred complete escape from three classes of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies.Penny Moore from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) in Johannesburg and colleagues say the findings highlight the possibility of re-infection among people presumed to have acquired some degree of immunity due to previously having had SARS-CoV-2.The findings also have important implications regarding the effectiveness of certain vaccines and therapeutic strategies that are undergoing development. A pre-print version of the research paper is available on the bioRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
Antibiotic resistance may spread even more easily than expected --Pathogenic bacteria in humans are developing resistance to antibiotics much faster than expected. Now, computational research at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, shows that one reason could be significant genetic transfer between bacteria in our ecosystems and to humans. This work has also led to new tools for resistance researchers.According to the World Health Organisation, antibiotic resistance is one of the greatest threats to global health, food safety and development. It already causes over 33,000 deaths a year in Europe alone.Completely different species of bacteria can spread resistance genes to each other through plasmids - small DNA molecules where bacteria store some of their genes outside the chromosome. When two bacterial cells come into contact, they can copy plasmids to each other. This is called conjugation, and it is the most important mechanism for spreading antibiotic resistance."In recent years, we've seen that resistance genes spread to human pathogens to a much greater degree than anyone expected," says Jan Zrimec, researcher in systems and synthetic biology at Chalmers University of Technology. "Many of the genes appear to have originated in a wide array of bacterial species and environments, such as soil, water and plant bacteria."This has been difficult to explain, because although conjugation is very common, we've thought that there was a distinct limitation for which bacterial species can transfer plasmids to each other. Plasmids belong to different mobility groups, or MOB groups, so they can't transfer between just any bacterial species. Zrimec has developed an algorithm that can identify specific DNA regions that are necessary for conjugation - called oriT regions - in large amounts of data consisting of genetic sequences from the DNA of thousands of plasmids. The results show, among other things, that:
- The number of oriT regions may be almost eight times higher than those found with the standard method used today.
- The number of mobile plasmids may be twice as high as previously known.
- The number of bacterial species that have mobile plasmids may be almost twice as high as previously known.
- Over half of these plasmids have oriT regions that match a conjugation enzyme from another plasmid that has previously been classified in a different MOB group. This means that they could be transferred by one of these plasmids that happens to be in the same bacterial cell.
Restoring Our Water Systems Should Be Top Priority for Biden Administration -The Biden-Harris transition team identified COVID-19, economic recovery, racial equity and climate change as its top priorities. Rivers are the through-line linking all of them. The fact is, healthy rivers can no longer be separated into the "nice-to-have" column of environmental progress. Rivers and streams provide more than 60 percent of our drinking water — and a clear path toward public health, a strong economy, a more just societyand greater resilience to the impacts of the climate crisis. Let's begin with COVID-19. More than 16 million Americans have contracted the coronavirus and, tragically,more than 300,000 have died due to the pandemic. While health officials encourage hand-washing to contain the pandemic, at least 2 million Americans are currently living without running water, indoor plumbing or wastewater treatment. Meanwhile, aging water infrastructure is growing increasingly costly for utilities to maintain. That cost is passed along to consumers. The upshot? More than 13 million U.S. households regularly face unaffordable water bills — and, thus, the threat of water shutoffs. Without basic access to clean water, families and entire communities are at a higher risk of contracting and spreading COVID-19.We have a moral duty to ensure that everyone has access to clean water to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Last spring, Congress appropriated more than $4 trillion to jumpstart the economy and bring millions of unemployed Americans back to work. Additional federal assistance — desperately needed — will present a historic opportunity to improve our crumbling infrastructure, which has been grossly underfunded for decades.A report by my organization, American Rivers, suggests that Congress must invest at least $50 billion "to address the urgent water infrastructure needs associated with COVID-19," including the rising cost of water. This initial boost would allow for the replacement and maintenance of sewers, stormwater infrastructure and water supply facilities. Investing in water infrastructure and healthy rivers also creates jobs. Consider, for example, that every $1 million spent on water infrastructure in the United States generates more than 15 jobs throughout the economy, according to a report by the Value of Water Campaign. Similarly, every "$1 million invested in forest and watershed restoration contracting will generate between 15.7 and 23.8 jobs, depending on the work type," states a working paper released by the Ecosystem Workforce Program, University of Oregon. Healthy rivers also spur tourism and recreation, which many communities rely on for their livelihoods. According to the findings by the Outdoor Industry Association, which have been shared in our report, "Americans participating in watersports and fishing spend over $174 billion on gear and trip related expenses. And, the outdoor watersports and fishing economy supports over 1.5 million jobs nationwide."
Limiting air pollution 'could prevent 50,000 deaths in Europe' - Limiting air pollution to levels recommended by the World Health Organization could prevent more than 50,000 deaths in Europe annually, according to research.The WHO estimates air pollution kills more than 7 million people each year and is one of the leading causes of sickness and absence from work globally.Cities, with their crowded streets and high energy use, are hotspots for illness and disease linked to air pollution.The WHO recommends that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) not exceed 10 micrograms per cubic metre of air, averaged annually. For nitrogen dioxide (NO2), the threshold not to be exceeded is 40ÎĽg/m3.Wednesday’s study, published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal, estimated the premature death burden due to these two pollutants in nearly 1,000 cities across Europe.It found that reducing PM2.5 and NO2 to safe WHO levels could prevent 51,213 premature deaths each year.Nearly 125,000 deaths annually could be saved if air pollution levels were reduced to the lowest recorded in the study, its authors said.Mark Nieuwenhuijsen of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) said the research “proves that many cities are still not doing enough to tackle air pollution”.“Levels above WHO guidelines are leading to unnecessary deaths,” he said. Using city-specific data on air pollution models combined with mortality figures, the researchers formed a “mortality burden score” ranking individual cities from best to worst.Deaths due to air pollution varied widely, with NO2 levels in Madrid, for example, responsible for 7% of annual deaths there. Cities in the Po Valley region of northern Italy, Poland, and the Czech Republic were the highest in mortality burden, with the Italian cities of Brescia, Bergamo and Vicenza all within the top five for PM2.5 concentrations.Those with the lowest mortality burden included Tromso in Norway, Umea in Sweden and Oulu in Finland, as well as the Icelandic capital, Reykjavik. On average, 84% of the population in cities studied were exposed to PM2.5 levels above the WHO guideline. Nine per cent were exposed to higher-than-recommended NO2 levels, the study found.
California weather: Up to 100 mph wind gusts rip through the state as dangerous winds raise fire risk – CNN - Tens of thousands of residents across several California counties were without power Tuesday as officials aim to reduce fire risk from the powerful Santa Ana winds roaring through the region. More than 11 million residents, from the central coast into southern California, were under red flag warnings due to winds exacerbating fire risks. And nearly 150,000 customers were already without power Tuesday from a combination of downed trees and power lines, and utilities proactively shutting off power to prevent fires. Two brush fires were reignited in the footprint of the CZU Lightning Complex that burned through parts of Santa Cruz and San Mateo counties over the summer. The North Butano Fire is currently burning within the scar left by the 86,000 acre wildfire, according to Cal Fire spokeswoman Cecile Juliette. The CZU Lightning Complex burned actively for over a month after being sparked by a lightning storm in mid-August. Nearly 1,500 homes and other buildings were destroyed and one person was killed in the wildfire. "Having fires like this is very unusual for January," Juliette tells CNN. "We've had barely any rain this year." Sometimes embers from a large wildfire can "hide" under the litter from the trees, and when the wind blows, the embers smoldering underground get lifted up and ignite dry brush, Juliette explained. The wind storm has knocked down several trees, blocking firefighter's access the put out the flames. Winds in the highest elevation of the High Sierra had topped 100 mph on Tuesday. Strong gusts of over 50 mph were reported at San Francisco International Airport. Several hurricane-force wind gusts in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties in Southern California were reported Tuesday. On Monday, wind gusts of more than 90 mph were reported from Sacramento to the Bay Area, with one gust reaching 100 mph near Kirkwood, east of Sacramento. A 90 mph wind gust was even reported in Tahoe, with winds well over 60 mph stretching up and down the coast. To put that in perspective, a Category 1 hurricane's winds are 74 to 95 mph and Category 2 winds are 96 to 110 mph. This means, wind gusts in California could reach speeds equivalent to a strong Category 2 hurricane. e
Firefighters Gain Upper Hand on California Wildfires; Hundreds of Thousands Still Without Power - Firefighters gained the upper hand on several wildfires fueled by powerful winds that toppled trees and knocked out power across parts of California. The Wolf Fire near Bakersfield grew to slightly more than 1 square mile before it was 80% contained Tuesday night, the Kern County Fire Department reported. The blaze was burning off State Road 166 in the Wind Wolves Preserve, about 95 miles northwest of Los Angeles, The National Weather Service had issued a red flag warning for Los Angeles, Ventura Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties through Tuesday night. NWS offices in California had received more than 100 reports of wind damage. More than 180,000 homes and businesses were without power as of 2:00 a.m. Wednesday PST, according to poweroutage.us. That was down from more than 270,000 on Tuesday. In addition to outages caused by the weather, Pacific Gas & Electric had warned it would cut power to about 5,465 customers in portions of Fresno, Kern, Madera, Mariposa, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Tulare counties early Tuesday to reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfires. Southern California Edison said it had shut off power to 29,000 customers and was considering shutoffs for another may shut off power to another 269,000 customers to lessen fire danger. The Santa Rosa Fire Department in Sonoma County said it was responding to multiple reports of wind damage, including a roof ripped off a carport, a tree that fell on a fence and a tree blown down into a guest cottage. The giant redwood crushed the cottage, but the woman who lives there was able to escape with her two dogs, KGO reported. Also in Sonoma, downed power lines started a 10 to 15-acre brush fire in Geyserville, KNTV reported. Several fallen trees blocked intersections in San Francisco, KGO reported, and one damaged a car. Residents along four streets in Milpitas in Santa Clara County had to evacuate briefly after the winds began whipping a vegetation fire, KNTV reported. Firefighters had the fire under control late Monday. Cal Fire's San Mateo/Santa Cruz Unit said it had responded to at least 10 vegetation fires across San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties overnight. About 10 a.m. Tuesday, Cal Fire CZU reported two new fires in Santa Cruz County: one in Watsonville and one in the Boulder Creek area off of Highway 9. About 1,250 people were told to evacuate because of the fires, Santa Cruz County spokesman Jason Hoppin told Look Out Santa Cruz. The 37-acre blaze in Watsonville, named the Freedom Fire, was on Freedom Road, north of Watsonville. It was 20% contained as of late Tuesday night. The Boulder Creek fire was dubbed the Panther Ridge Fire, and it had burned about acres and was 98% contained, according to Cal Fire CZU.
$11 billion in damage from last summer’s derecho: ‘Historically it produced the most damage in the least amount of time.’ - The summer derecho that rattled windows and ripped down trees across Illinois and the Midwest caused an estimated $11 billion in damage, becoming the costliest storm event to occur in less than 24 hours in at least four decades. That’s according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which this month released its annual report detailing the billion-dollar-plus weather and climate disasters to strike the United States. A record-breaking 22 disasters caused $95 billion in damage in 2020. Last year was the sixth in a row to have 10 or more separate billion-dollar disaster events, said Adam Smith, a NOAA climatologist.Damaged by last year's derecho storm, fallen trees are seen piled up at the Bill Jarvis Migratory Bird Sanctuary in Chicago near Belmont Harbor on Friday, Jan. 19, 2021. “For 2020 to have more than doubled that standard, at 22 separate billion-dollar disaster events, shattering the record of 16 events that happened in 2011 and 2017, was really breathtaking,” Smith said. “It’s hard to believe. And hopefully we won’t have a year like 2020 for many years to come.” Starting on Aug. 10, a speedy line of storms with remarkable endurance covered 770 miles in 14 hours. Beginning in southern South Dakota and hitting gusts higher than 90 mph, the derecho flattened millions of acres of crops, tipped over semitrucks and snapped trees apart on its path toward Ohio. Its $11 billion in damage made the derecho the second-costliest severe storm event out of 128 that met the billion-dollar mark since 1980. The only severe storm that eclipsed the derecho in cost was the southeastern tornado Super Outbreak in 2011 that lasted for four days. A But, Smith said, “What makes the derecho interesting is that historically it produced the most damage in the least amount of time.” The storm hit everything: homes, businesses, vehicles, the agricultural economy.
Thousands evacuated as Storm Christoph hits UK with disruptive snow and historic flooding - Around 2 300 homes have been evacuated overnight Thursday, January 21, 2021, amid widespread flooding and dangerous snow across parts of the United Kingdom brought by Storm Christoph. The storm prompted more than 200 flood warnings, with five of them severe, and has pushed River Dee to its highest level since a water gauge was installed in 1996. Storm Christoph brought some heavy, and at times record-breaking, rain to parts of the UK over the past 2 days, according to data provided by the UK Met Office. Provisional figures show Honister, in Cumbria, received 123.8 mm (4.87 inches) of rainfall on Tuesday, January 19, a new daily rainfall record for this winter and 2021. However, it was well short of England’s all-time January daily rainfall record of 180.4 mm (7.1 inches) set in 2005. Provisional figures also show the 19th was the wettest January day since 1954 in Rochdale where 46.8 mm (1.84 inches) of rain was recorded, as well as in Preston (43.6 mm (1.71 inches)) and Stonyhurst, Lancashire (43.8 mm (1.72 inches)). On January 19 and 20, parts of Cleveland, in North Yorkshire received more than their average January rainfall. Heavy rainfall has already prompted the declaration of multiple major incidents across England and Wales. Many rivers are at dangerously high levels, according to the Environment Agency. Widespread flooding forced about 2 300 homes in the Didsbury and Northenden areas of Manchester to evacuate, while residents in Ruthin and Bangor-on-Dee, North Wales, and Maghull, Merseyside, are also affected. Councillor Steven Harvey, chairman of the Bangor-on-Dee Community Council, said that emergency services worked overnight to evacuate residents as River Dee reached its highest level since a water gauge was installed 25 years ago. "People were advised to leave their properties close to the river during the night," said Harvey. Fari Iravani, a Didsbury resident, told BBC News, "We are trying to hold on as long as we can, and hopefully it will pass. If there is a continuation of the rain and the storm, that's going to be a problem." Iravani also highlighted the struggles of evacuating amid a pandemic. "During corona where do you evacuate to? You don't want to impose yourself on other people," he said. As of 06:00 LT on January 21, 'severe flood warnings' are in place for River Mersey at East Didsbury, River Mersey at West Didsbury and Northenden, River Bollin and Agden Brook at Little Bollington, and River Bollin at Heatley.
15 dead, 24 379 houses inundated as worst floods in 50 years hit South Kalimantan, Indonesia - A series of floods struck the Indonesian province of South Kalimantan Province over the past 10 days, leaving at least 15 people dead, 24 379 houses inundated, and 39 549 displaced as of Monday, January 18, 2021. President Joko Widodo described the massive flooding in the area as the worst in the past 50 years, with almost 10 districts and cities affected.National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesperson Raditya Jati said the floods were brought by intense, persistent rains, with waters reaching as high as 3 m (10 feet)."Today, I am reviewing the situation of flooding in nearly 10 districts and cities in South Kalimantan Province. This is a type of major flooding that had not occurred in South Kalimantan Province for over 50 years," Widodo stated as he visited the Pekauman Village along with other officials.The 10 flood-stricken districts and cities are Tapin, Banjar, Banjar Baru, Tanah Laut City, Banjarmasin City, Hulu Sungai Tengah, Balangan, Tabalong, Hulu Sungai Selatan, and Batola. "The rainfall has been very high for almost 10 consecutive days, so the Barito River, which normally holds 230 million cubic m (8 billion cubic feet) is currently receiving 2.1 billion cubic m (74 billion cubic feet) of water, thereby resulting in it overflowing its banks and inundating the 10 districts and cities."At least 15 people lost their lives in the floods since January 12, while many others are still missing. About 24 379 houses have been inundated and 39 549 people were displaced."Lastly, I would like to express deep sorrow over the deaths of those in the floods in South Kalimantan. I hope the families left behind would be patient and accepting," the president added.The South Kalimantan provincial government has declared a flood emergency status since January 14. Relief aid is being distributed to the affected families, which included clothing, food, blankets, tents, and mattresses. According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency’s forecast, light to moderate rains are expected for South Kalimantan as the rainy season continues until February.
Yakutia sees longest cold spell in 14 years as Siberia quivers through abnormally harsh temperatures The Siberian region of Yakutia has shivered through its longest cold spell in 14 years, with temperatures plunging below -40 °C (-40 °F) during the middle of December 2020. The area is currently in the grip of an abnormally long period of harsh cold that is considered unusual, even for Siberia's standards. In December 2020, temperatures in the Yakutia region plummeted below -40 °C (-40 °F) and has not climbed above that since, making it one of the longest periods of subzero cold in the area in at least 14 years, according to the Associated Press (AP). Even for Siberia's standards, the long period of cold is unusual and harsh, AP noted. Over the recent days, the mercury dropped even further to a bone-chilling -50 °C (-58 °F). "The main rule is not to stand in one place and to keep going and going," said Yakutsk resident Dmitry Kuznetsov. On Monday morning, January 18, 2021, a low of -58.1 °C (-72.6 °F) was observed in Delyankir, a small district northeast of Yakutsk. Harsh cold conditions are forecast to further intensify, with temperatures of -50 °C (-58 °F) expected across Siberia until the end of January.
Mongolia in the grip of one of its most extreme winters on record - Mongolia is in the grip of one of its most extreme winters on record, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), with temperatures forecast to plunge to -50 °C (-58 °F). The severe cold has killed more than 500 camels in the central region, threatening livestock and leaving many herder families vulnerable.The extreme weather, called dzud, threatens the livelihoods and health of thousands of Mongolian herders residing in the country's remote provinces.As a pre-emptive action, the Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) has sent financial assistance and livestock nutrition kits in target areas to help them in meeting their needs, as well as to save their livestock-- the main source of livelihoods for Mongolians.On January 12, 2021, local media reported that the frigid temperatures killed more than 500 Bactrian camels in the central province of Uvurkhangai."The camel is said to be the most tolerant livestock of dzud and drought. However, even camels are dying in our soum this winter," an elder herder said at a meeting between authorities and herders.Local herdsmen added that dozens of small livestock animals have been perishing almost every day. "Dzuds are devastating for the herder families who rely on their animals for almost everything, whether it’s meat and milk for food or the cashmere and skins they sell to buy supplies or pay school fees," said MRCS secretary-general Bolormaa Nordov."Losing their animals means they can quickly fall into poverty." Nordov continued, "Simply waiting for disasters to strike is no longer an option. Climate change is bringing more frequent and severe disasters and our anticipatory action approach is helping communities move from reacting after extreme weather events to preparing before these emergencies."The IFRC is set to release emergency funds to assist about 2 000 vulnerable herder families. Widespread financial grants and animal care kits have been given ahead of the extreme weather, which will prevent major stock and economic loss for the families and the communities. "This is so because horses, camels, goats, cattle and sheep for milk, cashmere, meat, and other livestock products are the only source of income for our herders," IFRC wrote.
134-vehicle pileup amid Japan blizzard -- Blinding, wind-driven snow is the suspected cause of a deadly accident on an expressway in northern Japan that involved at least 134 vehicles. The accident occurred around midday on Tuesday on the Tohoku Expressway in Miyagi prefecture, which is located about 20 miles (32 km) to the north of the city of Sendai. Initial reports from local media indicated that the accident involved more than 134 vehicles carrying about 200 people. The accident has claimed the life of one person and an additional 12 were injured, according to Reuters.Aerial video from the scene showed a snow-covered road and blowing snow with smashed-up cars and jack-knifed tractor trailers lining the roadway as emergency responders provided assistance to motorists. Authorities had reduced the speed limit on the highway to 31 mph (50 km/h) when heavy snow reduced visibility. Around the time of the accident, an expressway operator said the area was in a state of whiteout due to the wind and snow, with visibility reduced to near zero,according to the Japanese broadcast service NHK. This accident comes after heavy snow across western Japan left 1,000 vehicles stranded on a highway in Niigata in December. A separate snowstorm left 1,500 vehicles stranded amid heavy snow on the Hokuriku Expressway earlier in January.
Trillions of Brood X Cicadas to Emerge in 15 States This Spring -Fifteen states are in for an unusually noisy spring.Brood X, the largest and most widespread colony of cicadas in the U.S., is due to emerge from their 17-year hibernation, Michigan State University entomologist Gary Parsons explained. The bugs typically emerge as early as mid-May, and the sound of their mating can reach 100 decibels, Newsweek reported. And there will be lots of them."Densities can be as great as 1.5 million per acre. So, between Georgia and New York there will surely be trillions emerging," emeritus professor of entomology at the University of Maryland and Entomological Society of America fellow Michael J. Raupp told Newsweek.The cicadas are due to emerge in Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Washington, DC for the first time since 2004. They will begin to emerge once the ground hits 64 degrees Fahrenheit, usually between mid-May and late June. They will be above ground mating and laying eggs for about five to six weeks, CBS News reported. Then the nymphs will dig into the ground to suck tree roots for another 17 years, Parsons explained.The brood's large numbers and long hibernation period is part of an evolutionary strategy millions of years old."It is thought that by having the longlife cycles, cicadas have prevented predators from specifically targeting them for food. Then by emerging in the millions all at once, they are too numerous for any predators that do eat them from ever wiping them out. There are so many of them that lots of them will always survive," Parsons said.In addition, the long hibernation times helped the cicadas avoid unseasonably cold summers, CBS News explained. In the Pleistocene Epoch, 1.8 million years ago, summers could be much colder in the Eastern U.S. But cicadas can't survive above ground for long if the temperature stays below 68 degrees Fahrenheit. So they evolved to emerge infrequently to reduce their chances of hitting a cold snap.Brood X isn't the only cicada brood in the country. There are other broods with 13 or 17 year cycles, as well as annual cicadas with three to four year cycles, Parsons said. Many of them have been impacted by recent environmental changes. "In the long ago past, it is likely the different broods were more widespread geographically," he said. "It is likely that urbanization, widespread commercial farming and other factors have reduced and limited them over the years. You take away the trees and shrubs in forests and they don't have the roots to feed on. Fortunately, they have adapted well to using street trees, parks and yard trees as their hosts and can still survive in urbanized areas."
Neonic Pesticides Could Spell Disaster for Our Food Supply -- Industry would have us believe that pesticides help sustain food production — a necessary chemical trade-off for keeping harmful bugs at bay and ensuring we have enough to eat. But the data often tell a different story—particularly in the case of neonicotinoid pesticides, also known as neonics. Despite being the most widely used family of pesticides in the United States, research has shown that the largest uses of these neurotoxic chemicals do little to nothing to help crop yields or farmers' bottom lines. If we look closer, it's easy to see why: The vast majority of neonics are applied as coatings on seeds for crops like corn, soybean, and wheat — where they are most often used indiscriminately, rather than in response to specific pest problems. For many conventional seed varieties, farmers have no choice but to buy neonics-treated seeds, thanks to the near monopolies enjoyed by agrochemical giants, which manufacture both the seeds and the pesticides. The result? Tens to hundreds of millions of acres are needlessly sown with bee-toxic seeds. And while these wasteful practices may spell good news for the profit margins of chemical manufacturers — to the tune of more than $3 billion per year — they are catastrophic news for the surrounding ecosystems. That's because neonics are pervasive ecosystem contaminants. When coated on seeds, they're absorbed "systemically" as plants grow — up through the roots and into the nectar, pollen, and fruit itself — which then get eaten by other wildlife. Unsurprisingly, our agricultural system is now 48 times more harmful to insect life than it was just two decades ago, with neonics accounting for more than 90 percent of that increase. That's why it's also no surprise that neonics have been recognized as a primary cause of the massive losses of U.S. honey bee colonies every year — the unfortunate new normal. Neonics are also linked to mass die-offs of native bees, birds, fish, and harm to other important insects and earthworms, which keep our soil healthy and nutrient-dense.In a recent study out of Rutgers University, researchers looked at seven different crops in 131 commercially managed fields across North America to see how many crops were "pollinator-limited" — i.e., crops whose yields would be higher were there more pollinators.Distressingly, five out of every seven crops they analyzed were pollinator-limited — including favorites like apples, cherries, and blueberries. "Honeybee colonies are weaker than they used to be and wild bees are declining, probably by a lot," said the paper's senior author, Rachael Winfree. "Fewer bees, in turn, mean less food, and more pressure on struggling honeybee populations to replace pollination from native bees."As Winfree notes, this reliance on a single species is risky, "setting us up for food security problems." Worse yet, the study shows the likely impact of neonics on our food supply isn't decades away; it's already happening right now.
Climate change is hurting children's diets, global study finds - A first-of-its-kind, international study of 107,000 children finds that higher temperatures are an equal or even greater contributor to child malnutrition and low quality diets than the traditional culprits of poverty, inadequate sanitation, and poor education. The 19-nation study is the largest investigation of the relationship between our changing climate and children's diet diversity to date. It is believed to be the first study across multiple nations and continents of how both higher temperatures and rainfall--two key results of climate change--have impacted children's diet diversity. "Certainly, future climate changes have been predicted to affect malnutrition, but it surprised us that higher temperatures are already showing an impact," . Led by University of Vermont researchers, the study examines diet diversity among 107,000 children 5 and under in 19 countries in Asia, Africa, and South America, using 30 years of geo-coded temperature and precipitation data, and socioeconomic, ecological, and geographic data. The study finds that the negative effects of climate--especially higher temperature--on diet diversity are greater in some regions than the positive effects of education, water and sanitation and poverty alleviation--all common global development tactics. The findings were published today in Environmental Research Letters. Of the six regions examined--Asia; Central and South America; North, West, and Southeast Africa, five had significant reductions in diet diversity associated with higher temperatures. Researchers focused on diet diversity, a metric developed by the United Nations to measure diet quality and micronutrient intake. Micronutrients, such as iron, folic acid, zinc, and vitamins A and D, are critical for child development. A lack of micronutrients is a cause of malnutrition, which affects one out of every three children under the age of five. The study also found that higher precipitation, another potential effect of climate change in some regions, was associated with higher child diet diversity. In some cases, the effect of higher precipitation had a greater impact on child diet diversity than education, improved sanitation or greater forest cover.
Climate Crisis Will Shift Tropical Rain Belt and Create Food Insecurity for Billions, Study Finds - Nearly 1.6 million people in the southern part of Madagascar have faced food insecurity since 2016, experiencing one drought after another, the United Nations World Food Program reported. A study published Monday found billions more could face food insecurity as Earth's tropical rain belt shifts in response to climate change, causing increased drought stress and intensified flooding. "Our work shows that climate change will cause the position of Earth's tropical rain belt to move in opposite directions in two longitudinal sectors that cover almost two thirds of the globe, a process that will have cascading effects on water availability and food production around the world," lead author Antonios Mamalakis, a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, toldUCI News. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine and other institutions analyzed how the tropical rain belt would respond to a future where greenhouse gas emission continued to rise through 2100, UCI News reported. Their findings, published in Nature Climate Change, revealed the rain belt will shift northward over the Eastern Hemisphere, impacting countries in southeastern Africa.In Madagascar, these impacts are already being felt."We only had one day of rain in December in the whole region. And the thunderstorms have been blasting… and destroying and burying the crops that were there," Lola Castro, the United Nations World Food Program regional director for Southern Africa and Indian Ocean States, told UN News. "The result is famine-like conditions." Madagascar's vulnerability to the climate crisis, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, has left people with little to eat, Castro said. "Cactus mixed with mud, roots, whatever they can find, leaves, seeds, whatever is available." The rain belt is projected to shift toward a warming atmosphere, co-author James Randerson, UCI's Ralph J. & Carol M. Cicerone Chair in Earth System Science, explained. "In Asia, projected reductions in aerosol emissions, glacier melting in the Himalayas and loss of snow cover in northern areas brought on by climate change will cause the atmosphere to heat up faster than in other regions," he told UCI News. "We know that the rain belt shifts toward this heating, and that its northward movement in the Eastern Hemisphere is consistent with these expected impacts of climate change," Randerson told UCI News. In the Western Hemisphere, the rain belt is expected to move in the opposite direction by shifting southward, the study found. This will cause greater drought stress to Central America, a region which is experiencing more than five years of recurring drought, Reuters reported.
Acidification impedes shell development of plankton off the US West Coast - Shelled pteropods, microscopic free-swimming sea snails, are widely regarded as indicators for ocean acidification because research has shown that their fragile shells are vulnerable to increasing ocean acidity. A new study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, shows that pteropods sampled off the coasts of Washington and Oregon made thinner shells than those in offshore waters. Along the coast, upwelling from deeper water layers brings cold, carbon dioxide-rich waters of relatively low pH to the surface. The research, by a team of Dutch and American scientists, found that the shells of pteropods collected in this upwelling region were 37 percent thinner than ones collected offshore. Sometimes called sea butterflies because of how they appear to flap their "wings" as they swim through the water column, fat-rich pteropods are an important food source for organisms ranging from other plankton to juvenile salmon to whales. They make shells by fixing calcium carbonate in ocean water to form an exoskeleton. "It appears that pteropods make thinner shells where upwelling brings water that is colder and lower in pH to the surface, " said lead author Lisette Mekkes of Naturalis Biodiversity Centers and the University of Amsterdam in the Netherlands. Mekkes added that while some shells also showed signs of dissolution, the change in shell thickness was particularly pronounced, demonstrating that acidified water interfered with pteropods' ability to build their shells. The California Current Ecosystem along the West Coast is especially vulnerable to ocean acidification because it not only absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but is also bathed by seasonal upwelling of carbon-dioxide rich waters from the deep ocean. In recent years these waters have grown increasingly corrosive as a result of the increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbed into the ocean. "Our research shows that within two to three months, pteropods transported by currents from the open-ocean to more corrosive nearshore waters have difficulty building their shells," Over the last two-and-a-half centuries, scientists say, the global ocean has absorbed approximately 620 billion tons of carbon dioxide from emissions released into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, changes in land-use, and cement production, resulting in a process called ocean acidification.
Massive pyroclastic flow at Semeru volcano, Indonesia -A massive pyroclastic flow was generated at the Indonesian Semeru volcano at 10:24 UTC (17:24 WIB) on January 16, 2021.According to the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (PVMBG), the flow slid approximately 4.5 km (2.8 miles) down the southeast and southern slopes of the volcano and was accompanied by lava avalanches with a sliding distance between 500 and 1 000 m (1 640 - 3 280 feet) from Jonggring Seleko Crater towards Besuk Kobokan drainage on the southern flank.Ash plumes rose up to 5.5 km (18 050 feet) above sea level.A corresponding seismic signal with an amplitude up to 22 mm lasted approximately 1 hour and 2 minutes. The Alert Level remained at 2 (on a scale of 1 - 4), and the public was reminded to stay outside of the general 1 km (0.62 miles) radius from the summit and 4 km (2.5 miles) on the SSE flank. MAGMA Indonesia reported that an average of 40 eruptive earthquakes per day has been recorded from October 1 to November 30, 2020. Rock avalanches from the peak have continuously occurred since October 19.
Heavy ashfall in Kozyrevsk after strong paroxysmal event at Klyuchevskoy volcano, Russia - A strong paroxysmal event took place at Klyuchevskoy volcano on January 18, 2021. Explosions sent ash up to 7.5 km (24 600 feet) a.s.l., with eruptive cloud drifting 500 km (310 miles) W of the volcano.According to Yury Demianchuk from Russia's volcanological observatory, the Kozyrevsk village was affected by a strong ashfall two hours after the eruption.The thickness of ash was 1 cm (0.4 inches), but it was eventually covered by up to 0.5 m (0.6 feet) of new snow.Local reports said the color and structure of the ash were very different, compared to the previous explosions. The ashes will be sent to the Institute of Volcanology for chemical analysis.The lava flows continue to move along Kozyrevsky and Apakhonchichsky drainages on the southern and southeastern flanks of the volcano. Satellite data showed a large bright thermal anomaly in the area of the volcano all week, KVERT said in a bulletin released on January 21.On the other days of the week gas-steam plumes containing some amount of ash rose up to 6 km (19 600 feet) a.s.l., and extended for 200 km (124 miles) from the volcano.
Earth is spinning faster than it has in 50 years, scientists reveal -- The Earth has been spinning on its axis faster than it has in five decades, scientists around the world have revealed. 2020 already saw some of the shortest days recorded in history, with 2021 predicted to be even shorter. "It is certainly correct that the Earth is spinning faster now than at any time in the last 50 years," Scientists have noted that the Earth is now completing its rotation in 1.4602 milliseconds less than the usual 86 400 seconds. The speed of the Earth's rotation varies constantly due to the complex motion of its molten core, oceans, and the impact of celestial bodies, including the Moon. The friction of the tides and the change in distance between the planet and its natural satellite make for daily variations in the speed the Earth rotates, and even snow accumulating on mountains and melting in the summer can affect it. Since 2020, a full day has been taking less than 24 hours, with July 19 declared as the shortest day since record-keeping began in the 1960s. During that time, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) announced that no leap second would be added to the world's official timekeeping in December 2020. Leap seconds are time adjustments like leap years-- timekeepers at IERS Paris have added leap seconds to 27 days since the 1970s, keeping atomic time in line with solar time. Scientists said the days are about 0.5 seconds shorter than 24 hours-- though the time difference is only noticeable at the atomic level, its effects could be significant. World timekeepers are now discussing whether to delete a second from time-- a negative leap second-- to bring time passage back in sync with the Earth's rotation. "There are also international discussions taking place about the future of leap seconds, and it’s also possible that the need for a negative leap second might push the decision towards ending leap seconds for good." On Sunday, January 3, 2021, the solar day lasted just 23 hours, 59 minutes, and 59.9998927 seconds. In the course of 2021, atomic clocks are expected to accumulate a lag of around 19 milliseconds.
Sensors detect rare 'musical note' from magnetosphere over Norway - A rhythmic pattern sounding like a low-frequency musical note was detected from the magnetosphere over Lofoten, Norway, on Monday, January 18, 2021. The rare event, which is also called a pulsation continuous, is a strictly regional phenomenon, according to INTERMAGNET-- a global network of observatories monitoring the Earth's magnetic field. Around 05:30 UTC on Monday, the local magnetic field over Lofoten began to swing back and forth in a rhythmic pattern, said Norweigian citizen scientist, Rob Stammes. Electrical currents in the ground reportedly did the same thing, he added. "I received a musical note from the magnetosphere," Stammes stated. "It was a nearly pure sine wave-- like a low-frequency musical note. The episode lasted for more than 2 hours." While Stammes had recorded such notes before, he pointed out that the phenomenon is a rare occurrence. "I see a pattern like this only about once a year." Dr. Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com said the phenomenon is called a pulsation continuous, or PC. "Imagine blowing across a piece of paper, making it flutter with your breath. The solar wind does the same thing to magnetic fields," he explained. "PC waves are essential flutters propagating down the flanks of Earth's magnetosphere excited by the breath of the sun." As to what happens in the sky when such musical notes occur from the magnetosphere, Stammes said, "I wish I knew. I was asleep at the time." Dr. Phillips added that it's possible that no one actually knows as such tones are rare and often happen while skies are cloudy, blocking any unusual auroras from views.
SUPREME COURT: Climate fight may split justices along ideological lines -- Wednesday, January 20, 2021 -- The Supreme Court did not appear ready yesterday to hand an easy win to oil and gas companies enmeshed in a slew of lawsuits seeking industry compensation for climate impacts. While the justices could side with industry attorneys on the highly technical jurisdictional question of whether climate liability challenges should be heard in state or federal venues, they seemed to shy away from arguments by BP PLC and other firms that all such lawsuits should automatically land in federal court — where they may be more likely to fail. Oil and gas interests could still notch a victory, albeit a more limited one, if the Supreme Court expands the scope of appeals over jurisdictional battles. In answering that question, however, the justices will likely game out the impact on climate lawsuits launched by Baltimore and other state and local governments. "Thus, a case where the narrow, technical question presented would not normally be expected to result in ideological divisions may well do so because everyone understands what is lurking in the background — whether courts should be providing remedies for the damage caused by climate change," Of the eight justices who heard telephone arguments yesterday in BP v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, five are conservative and three are liberal. (Justice Samuel Alito, who owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, did not participate.) One member of the conservative wing, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, appeared unsure of how he might come down in the case.(Greenwire, Jan. 19). The case focuses on the question of judicial jurisdiction. Baltimore and other cities, counties and states have sued oil supermajors in state courts across the country, arguing that the companies should be on the hook for climate impacts like wildfires and erosion because the industry has been a major contributor of planet-warming emissions. Lawyers for the oil and gas companies have argued that lawsuits like Baltimore's belong in federal court instead, where a judge may be more likely to find that the courts are not the place to resolve climate questions. Federal district judges have largely agreed that the cases belong in state courts, and energy industry attorneys have not been able to contest those rulings.
State Legislature Files Climate Bill, Again -- The climate and emissions reduction bill vetoed by Gov. Charlie Baker last week has been refiled by House and Senate leaders in the hopes of quickly returning the legislation to the governor, only this time with the opportunity to override a veto if it comes. The bill, which was negotiated last session between the House and Senate over five months of private talks, was refiled by Sen. Michael Barrett and Rep. Thomas Golden late Tuesday afternoon in the Senate, but Senate President Karen Spilka's office said there were no concrete plans yet for a vote on the bill. Spilka and House Speaker Ron Mariano issued a joint statement calling the legislation that passed the House and Senate on Jan. 4, two days before the session ended, an "ambitious and ground breaking climate bill" that had bipartisan support. "Months of work was exhaustively studied by members of the conference committee, and the result was a bill that rejects the false choice between economic growth and addressing climate change. We must combat climate change while also maintaining a thriving economy and expanding the housing stock that will ensure future, sustainable growth. The legislation sent to the Governor showed how it can be done," Spilka and Mariano said. Both leaders said they hoped the Legislature would act with "urgency," but did not lay out a timeline for taking up the legislation, or say whether it would get a public hearing.
Gina McCarthy outlines Biden's first climate actions -- Wednesday, January 20, 2021 -- Joe Biden will spend his first hours as president trying to obliterate much of the Trump administration's deregulatory agenda, restore public land protections and reestablish the United States as a global leader on climate change policy. Biden will sit in the Oval Office later today and sign a sweeping executive order to rejoin the Paris Agreement and undo President Trump's rollback of greenhouse gas policies, said Gina McCarthy, Biden's national climate adviser. "We know rejoining [Paris] won't be enough, but along with strong domestic action, which this executive order kicks off, it is going to be an important step for the United States to regain and strengthen its leadership opportunities," McCarthy told reporters late yesterday. The process of rejoining the Paris Agreement will begin today with a letter to the United Nations requesting U.S. membership. It will take 30 days for the U.S. to formally reenter the nonbinding global agreement to reduce emissions. The administration will also rescind the permit for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, McCarthy said. The line transports crude from the western Canadian province of Alberta to refineries in Illinois and Texas and to other oil facilities in Oklahoma. McCarthy said the pipeline, which was rejected by the Obama administration and then restored by Trump as one of his first actions, works against the administration's plans to aggressively address climate change and grow union jobs in the clean energy sector. "Climate change is a crisis, and the Keystone pipeline and its construction was not consistent with addressing the climate crisis to the depth and scope that we are planning to address it," she said. "Whatever limited benefit that Keystone was projected to provide now has to be obviously reconsidered with the economy of today." The climate order tomorrow will also initiate a major review of the Trump administration's rollback of environmental and public health protections. It will scrutinize "federal regulations and other executive actions taken during the last four years that were harmful to public health, damaging to the environment, unsupported by the best available science, or otherwise not in the national interest," according to a description of the executive order provided by the Biden transition.
BIDEN INAUGURATION: 'A cry for survival comes from the planet itself' -- Wednesday, January 20, 2021 -- President Biden declared the United States to be in a "time of testing" with intersecting troubles, including a "climate in crisis," but called for unity to confront them in his presidential inaugural address today. Just after being sworn in as the 46th president by Chief Justice John Roberts outside the Capitol, Biden gave a somber address that sought to convey the direness of the combination of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic crisis and racial justice, but also hope in coming out of the problems as a united country. Meanwhile, the attack on the Capitol just two weeks ago, in which a mob sought to stop certification of Biden's electoral victory over President Trump, loomed large over the ceremony. "We face an attack on our democracy and on truth. A raging virus. Growing inequity. The sting of systemic racism. A climate in crisis. America's role in the world," Biden told a crowd that was limited to members of Congress, their guests and other dignitaries — all wearing masks, spaced apart and accompanied by thousands of National Guard troops. "Any one of these would be enough to challenge us in profound ways," he said. "But the fact is, we face them all at once, presenting this nation with one of the gravest responsibilities we've had." Earlier, Biden declared that "a cry for survival comes from the planet itself, a cry that can't be any more desperate or any more clear now." While Biden's speech was accompanied by light snow flurries and blustery weather, the sun nonetheless shone brightly over the ceremony to inaugurate him and Vice President Kamala Harris, the first woman, first Black person and first Asian American person to hold the office. The president's speech was largely a reflection of the "four crises" narrative that has dominated Biden's messaging since Election Day, reflecting the prioritization he plans to put on fighting climate change, COVID-19, racism and the economic depression. But even in its gloomiest parts, the speech was far more positive than Trump's dark 2017 inaugural speech on "American carnage." Biden had no shortage of hope and desire to rally the nation to help accomplish his goals together, and he pledged to fight just as hard for his opponents as his supporters.
Restoring Environmental Rules Rolled Back by Trump Could Take Years - The New York Times — President Biden, vowing to restore environmental protections frayed over the past four years, has ordered the review of more than 100 rules and regulations on air, water, public lands, endangered species and climate change that were weakened or rolled back by his predecessor. But legal experts warn that it could take two to three years — and in some cases, most of Mr. Biden’s term — to put many of the old rules back in place. “People should temper their expectations about what can be done quickly,” said Kevin Minoli, who served as a lawyer at the Environmental Protection Agency in the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump administrations. He added, “It’s very possible, more possible than not, that some of the Trump rules will still be in effect for a couple of years.” Mr. Biden has an array of legal tools to reinstate environmental protections that were dismantled by the Trump administration. Gina McCarthy, his top domestic climate change adviser, headed the E.P.A. in the Obama administration and served as the chief author of some of the nation’s most comprehensive climate change rules. She has now reviewed every possible option to restore those protections, according to a White House official who is familiar with her thinking but was not authorized to speak on the record. But those tools take time. Experts in environmental law who have spoken with top Biden administration officials said the process of rolling back the Trump-era rollbacks would quite likely fall into a few broad categories. In a limited set of cases, Mr. Biden will be able to use his executive authority immediately, for instance to cancel individual fossil fuel infrastructure projects or reinstate federal protections on distinct areas of land and water. He did that on day one when he rescinded the construction permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have carried oil from Canadian oil sands across the American Midwest. The White House announced Thursday that any new lease of drilling rights on public lands must have the personal approval of the highest-ranking officials at the Department of Interior — either the secretary or an assistant secretary. Likewise, Mr. Biden is expected in the first months of his term to restore federal protections around at least two national monuments in Utah, Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante. In 2017, Mr. Trump opened nearly two million acres around those monuments to mining, logging and drilling — at the time the largest rollback of federal land protection in the nation’s history. On Thursday night, the White House released a fact sheet singling out its review of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase, along with one other, Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monuments off the New England coast, to “determine whether restoration of the monument boundaries and conditions would be appropriate.”
Ins and Outs of Congressional Review Act and Climate Change Rules - The obstacles the Trump administration has placed on environmental rulemaking and, by extension, on stemming climate change have been well-documented by organizations from mainstream media outlets to multiple academic institutions. Those obstacles are numerous, well more than 100 plus a cascade of end-of-term parting shots, many designed to complicate life for the incoming Biden administration, which is expected to reverse as many as it can, as quickly as it can.As a result of Democratic victories in the January 5 Senate runoffs in Georgia – giving Biden’s Democratic party a razor-thin Senate majority – there is an extra tool in the toolbox: theCongressional Review Act (CRA).It’s a tool to undo unwanted regulations. It’s been around only since 1996 and is loaded with caveats on how to use it, and its impacts can be blunt. But if Congress and the President just want to get rid of something, it can work … under very specific conditions. Like now.“You have to have the stars align,” says Cary Coglianese, a law and political science professor and director of the University of Pennsylvania Program on Regulation.And the stars may be aligning. With control as of January 20 of the White House and with razor-thin margins over the next two years in the Senate and House of Representatives, Democrats are expected to turn to the Congressional Review Act, which requires only a majority vote in each chamber. Newly inaugurated Vice President Kamala Harris would be able to break any ties, leaving just the President’s signature.All the same, there are a lot of rules. A big one is time. There’s a lookback window governing which regulations qualify – 60 legislative days in the House or 60 session days in the Senate counting back from the start of the new session (this year that’s January 3) – whichever is longer. The date isn’t officially designated yet, but it looks to be August 21, 2020. The rule must have been finalized, published in the Federal Register, and sent to Congress to set the clock running.Then, after 15 session days from when the new Congress convenes, there’s another 60-day window, again with an arcane counting system.A major concern among those hoping to use the Congressional Review Act is that for any rule thrown-out by a congressional resolution of disapproval, an agency may issue no new one in “substantially the same form.” The problem is – no one really knows exactly what that language means: It’s never been tested in the courts. In fact the CRA has been used only 17 times, 16 of them by the Trump administration soon after it took office.An exception to that, however, arises if the rule was for something required by law or there’s some kind of deadline – and then a whole new set of caveats kick in. Bottom line: “If you don’t want a rule at all ever, disapproving it under the Congressional Review Act is a good way of deterring future rulemaking on that subject,”
Biden Cancels Keystone XL Pipeline and Rejoins Paris Climate Agreement - The New York Times — President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Wednesday recommitted the United States to the Paris climate agreement, the international accord designed to avert catastrophic global warming, and ordered federal agencies to start reviewing and reinstating more than 100 environmental regulations that were weakened or rolled back by former President Donald J. Trump.The moves represent a first step in healing one of the deepest rifts between the United States and the rest of the world after Mr. Trump defiantly rejected the Paris pact and seemed to relish his administration’s push to weaken or undo major domestic climate policies.Mr. Biden has elevated tackling the climate crisis among his highest priorities. In addition to curbing global warming, he has vowed that ending the coronavirus pandemic, restoring the economy and addressing racial injustice will be the central causes of his administration.“We’re going to combat climate change in a way we have not before,” Mr. Biden said in the Oval Office on Wednesday evening, just before signing the executive orders. Even so, he cautioned: “They are just executive actions. They are important but we’re going to need legislation for a lot of the things we’re going to do.”Foreign leaders hailed Mr. Biden’s first moves as a powerful signal that the United States, the largest contributor to global warming in history, intends to restart its efforts to lower pollution levels and to restore the international order upended by Mr. Trump. “Welcome back to the Paris Agreement!” Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, said in a Twitter message.Under the Paris Agreement, nearly 200 nations have vowed to reduce planet warming emissions to avert the most disastrous consequences of climate change. A letter to the United Nations signed by Mr. Biden on Wednesday formally starts the 30-day process of bringing the United States back into the accord.But analysts cautioned that Mr. Biden’s actions on day one must be quickly followed by a series of aggressive domestic climate policies to drastically lower the country’s emissions of planet-warming pollution from tailpipes, smokestacks and oil and gas wells.Also on Wednesday, Mr. Biden rescinded the construction permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which would have transported carbon-heavy oil from the Canadian oil sands to the Gulf Coast. Earlier in the day, TC Energy, a Canadian company, said that it was suspending work on the line. But the lengthy legal process of undoing most of Mr. Trump’s environmental rollbacks and replacing them with new regulations could take many years and is likely to be strewn with political land mines if Republicans or business groups fight against them.
Republicans call for Senate review before U.S. re-enters Paris climate deal (Reuters) - A group of Republican senators on Wednesday called on newly sworn-in President Joe Biden to submit his plan to re-engage the United States in the Paris climate agreement to lawmakers for “review and consideration,” moments after Biden signed an executive order to rejoin the accord. Biden’s announcement that he would seek to return the United States to the agreement was the centerpiece of a raft of day-one executive orders aimed at restoring U.S. leadership in combating global warming. However, the senators’ move reflects the deep-seated political divisions over global warming policy that are likely to dog Democrat Biden throughout his presidency as he seeks to drive greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. Senator Steve Daines submitted a resolution arguing the president should not be allowed to commit the United States to an international treaty without approval of two-thirds of the Senate. The chamber has 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote.
Glick named FERC chair, promises 'significant progress' on energy transition | Utility Dive --Commissioner Richard Glick was named chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by President Joe Biden Thursday morning. Glick was considered a front runner for the chairmanship as the longest serving Democrat on the commission. He will succeed Chairman James Danly, and the commission is expected to retain its Republican majority until Commissioner Neil Chatterjee's term is up June 30. Glick has said publicly that on the electric side he would prioritize transmission reform, reassessing capacity markets, and continuing efforts to lower barriers to clean energy resources in regulated markets. On gas, he believes the commission should rethink how it assesses greenhouse gas emissions and more seriously review environmental justice impacts when approving gas infrastructure. Glick opposed many of the actions FERC took under Chairmen Chatterjee and Danly, and his long list of dissents and public comments foreshadow a commission more bullish on its role in the power sector's energy transition. Though Glick will still be running a majority Republican commission, he and Chatterjee have begun to find common ground on some issues in recent months, and many power sector observers think transmission reform will be one critical area Glick may tackle relatively early. Many would also like to see a new FERC find ways to reverse or otherwise weaken the commission's controversial minimum offer price rule expansion (MOPR) in the PJM Interconnection — a rule that effectively raises the price for all state subsidized resources bidding into the region's capacity market. Glick has called that move a violation of states' rights, and many states have been vocally critical of the impact that rule could have on their clean energy programs. On that issue, Glick may also have bipartisan support. Though Chatterjee stands by what he sees as "potential market distorting effects of state policies that favor certain resources," newly-minted Commissioners Allison Clements and Mark Christie have both indicated they think FERC should be more considerate of individual state approaches. Clements this week called out the MOPR order specifically in a dissenting comment approving part of PJM's compliance filing.
Smithfield project that converts hog waste to energy worries Sampson, Duplin residents - The N.C. Division of Air Quality granted Smithfield Foods and Dominion Energy one of the permits they need to move forward in completing a controversial project to create natural gas by using hog waste in Sampson and Duplin County. With the air quality permit, the two companies will build a gas-conditioning facility to trap biogas, or hog feces, and process it to inject the gas into a 30-mile-long pipeline that will run between Turkey and Warsaw. This is the first step in their joint Align RNG project. “This is great news for the environment, consumers and family farmers across North Carolina,” said Kraig Westerbeek, the senior director of Smithfield Renewables at Smithfield Foods. “Renewable natural gas is a transformational opportunity to reduce farm emissions, generate clean energy and provide economic opportunity for family farmers." Duplin County State Rep. Jimmy Dixon, a Republican, echoes Westerbeek and praises the project's new opportunity for rural areas. "The project accomplishes everything that has been brought up in the courts," said Dixon. "Right now, the emissions are going where? They're going into the atmosphere, we think it's clean but it takes care of that. So it is incremental improvement in our system to be able to use this as an alternative in conjunction with our already established way of handling our waste."However, everyone is not excited about the approved permit or the project.Residents in Sampson and Duplin County, mostly poor minorities, are faced with what some believe will be the negative impacts of a project that environmentalists say will use an outdated lagoon and spray field system. They believe it will further pollute a community that already has environmental challenges related to hog production. “Some of these people need to be in jail,” said Naemma Muhammad, a local environmental activist and co-director of the North Carolina Environmental Justice Network. “When you look at what they’re doing to people, someone ought to be in jail. It ought to be illegal to do that to people.”
Burning garbage: Every bit as dirty as it sounds - Trash incineration, which has been rebranded by the waste incineration industry as “waste-to-energy” (WTE), is often offered as an efficient solution to waste crises. But the truth is that this method of waste disposal is not only inefficient, it is harmful in every way that you might imagine, starting with the fact that it instantaneously spews virtually all carbon in our garbage into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, whether in the form of plastic, wood and paper, or lawn clippings and food scraps. In fact, burning garbage emits 1.5 times as much carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour generated as coal and three times as much as natural gas. In contrast, the main methods for managing garbage today – recycling, composting and landfilling – store large portions of carbon for many years. Any carbon they do release, even as methane, is emitted slowly over decades. For example, 100% of fossil carbon in plastic wastes is permanently stored in a landfill. More than 80% of biogenic carbon from wood and many types of paper is stored for decades in a landfill. Up to 20% of carbon in food scraps is even stored long term in a landfill. Moreover, modern landfills which capture and burn methane for electricity release less carbon than incinerating the solid waste that generates methane. All of this means communities that combine modern landfills with composting organics and recycling do far less environmental harm than WTE facilities. The direct impact on health of burning trash is even more troubling. Recent research on the human-health impacts of particulate emissions calculates that their costs in human morbidity and mortality due to asthmas, cardiovascular diseases and lung cancers are between $550,000 and $664,000 per metric ton of fine particulate emissions. Particulate impacts on human health from WTE are more than double their impacts from landfills, and even worse when compared with recycling and composting.
The best way to use our ‘available’ wood - MASSACHUSETTS GENERATES a lot of wood. Sturbridge, for example, spent more than $300,000 removing trees killed by drought and gypsy moths. Utilities, local and state governments, and private contractors chop down lots of trees for safety and environmental reasons. Industries also produce clean wood residue from manufacturing and crating. It all adds up to millions of tons of clean, virgin wood residue annually serving no useful purpose. Once a tree is cut, it releases the same amount of carbon into the atmosphere when it biodegrades as when it is burned. If that’s the case, why not burn it to displace fossil fuel carbon emissions? A ton of green wood will produce the same amount of heat as $140 worth of fuel oil at $2.10 a gallon. That means a million tons of available wood could annually displace $140 million worth of imported oil. The best way to use this available wood is for local heat production in homes or businesses. Since this wood production is ubiquitous across the state, we have an opportunity to develop local wood fuel supply chains connecting wood with local heat demand. That keeps energy dollars in local communities to stimulate local economies and create jobs. Instead, the Baker administration has proposed lowering the required efficiency standards on new centralized wood-fired electric generating stations to create markets for this abundant resource. Developers of the proposed Palmer Renewable Energy wood generating station claim they can deliver 40-plus semi-truck loads of green wood residue a day to this plant without cutting any additional trees, and this supply is from just a fraction of the tree removal service areas in Massachusetts. This market demand, at any price, is certainly an attractive offer to the municipalities, state agencies, and private companies generating this residue. However, the proposed Palmer plant will only convert 29 percent of the wood’s energy into useful energy so it’s a poor use of wood’s carbon. In addition, wood generating stations are paying less than $25 a ton for green wood, which is well below its $140 heat value. Environmental groups that oppose any wood burning point to the Manomet study, which concluded that burning wood to produce electricity is worse for the environment than burning coal. But the carbon accounting behind this conclusion focused on wood cut for electric generation, and not heating with available wood residue, which makes up Massachusetts’ current potential wood fuel supply. While we strive for zero carbon emission energy production, we have an opportunity to minimize carbon investment in transportation and maximize fossil fuel carbon displacement by using this resource locally for heat.
Permitting for big U.S. offshore wind farm will resume 'very, very soon': Avangrid CEO (Reuters) - The developer of the first major U.S. offshore wind farm said on Wednesday it will soon apply for a federal permit from President Joe Biden’s administration, after former President Donald Trump’s government abruptly canceled its initial application last month. Vineyard Wind will resubmit its construction plan to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management “very very soon,” Avangrid Inc CEO Dennis Arriola said in an interview, without specifying an exact date. “We believe that the pause button is going to come off and we’re going to continue right where we were,” he said. Biden has pledged to boost development of renewable energy as part of a sweeping plan to fight climate change and create jobs, and offshore wind proponents expect the nascent U.S. industry to experience dramatic growth. Vineyard Wind is a joint venture between power company Avangrid, a unit of Spain’s Iberdrola, and Denmark’s Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. Once constructed, the project 15 miles off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard is expected to provide power to more than 400,000 Massachusetts homes. Last month, BOEM said it was terminating the permitting process for Vineyard Wind, an apparent reaction to the company’s request for time to incorporate turbines from a new supplier, General Electric Co, into its design. Vineyard Wind’s dust-up with Trump’s BOEM was just the latest in a string of obstacles it has faced while seeking a federal permit. It had already suffered delays over concerns that its turbines will interfere with commercial fishing. The company has maintained talks with BOEM officials, who were “looking forward” to receiving the new information, Arriola said.
Coal, Utilities Hit With Double Whammy - Two important events have happened in the last few days that will have a direct impact on West Virginia’s energy-based economy and our state’s residents: Joe Biden was sworn in as President of the United States and a federal appeals court struck down a Trump administration rule that took a more reasonable approach to the use of carbon-based fuels for energy production.A decision by the D.C. Court of Appeals undercut Trump’s Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. Environmentalists praised the decision, arguing that the Trump rule essentially gave a pass to electric generating utilities to continue burning coal and contributing to climate change.More litigation will follow. It is likely that West Virginia and other energy-producing states will challenge the decision. But in the meantime, the court’s ruling is a setback for West Virginia, which has been working with utilities to develop plans to comply with the Trump rule.“Specifically, this decision disrupts West Virginia’s regulatory program, which was nearing finalization and predicated on the ACE Rule,” said Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).This is yet another curve ball for utilities. Previously, the Obama administration’s EPA adopted the Clean Power Plan—the precursor to ACE—which forced states to cut CO2 emissions to 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.That goal could only have been met by dramatically reducing the use of coal as a power source, even though, by the EPA’s own models, the effect on global temperatures would have been statistically insignificant (0.01 degrees Celsius by the year 2100).Trump’s rule is caught in a legal tangle and the previous Clean Power Plan is a non-starter, so the Biden administration’s EPA will likely come up with its own plan, something akin to the Clean Power Plan, but crafted in hopes of clearing legal hurdles.Rest assured that plan will pressure utilities to stop using coal and possibly even drive them away from natural gas. That will lead to even more economic damage for West Virginia.
Capito: Clean Energy ruling ‘a disaster’ — A court ruling Tuesday striking down a Trump administration’s Affordable Clean Energy Rule, a rule change lessening regulations on air pollution from power plants burning fossil fuels, is “a disaster,” a West Virginia senator said.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia unanimously said the rule was based on a“mistaken reading of the Clean Air Act” and the Environmental Protection Agency “fundamentally has misconceived the law.”“The D.C. Circuit’s striking down of the ACE Rule today, timed by the panel’s liberal majority for the last full day of the Trump administration, is a disaster for regulatory certainty in the power sector, particularly for coal production and generation states,” U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said.Capito said the decision will disrupt the regulatory program in West Virginia, which was nearing finalization and based on the Affordable Clean Energy Rule. “The timing precludes the Trump EPA from addressing the purported issues and provides a rationale for the Biden EPA immediately to try to advance a new rule,” Capito said. “The Biden EPA must not follow the path of the disastrous and so-called ‘Clean Power Plan,’ which was an unrealistic, illegal regulation that would have strangled West Virginia’s energy economy before it was stopped by the Supreme Court.” Capito also said she would “have pointed questions for the Biden administration and its nominees”about its plans to regulate the greenhouse gas emissions. FirstEnergy, parent company of Monongahela Power, responding to a request for comment about the decision, referred the newspaper to a statement it issued in November about its emission goals for 30 years ahead. The company announced it pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and set an interim goal for a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gases based on the levels from 2019. “We believe climate change is among the most important issues of our time,” Steven E. Strah, president and acting chief executive officer, said.“We will help address this challenge by building a more climate-resilient energy system and supporting the transition to a carbon-neutral economy,” he said. “Our ambitious new carbon goal and comprehensive climate strategy are fully aligned with our regulated business strategy and support our commitments to our customers, communities and investors, as well as environmental stewardship.”
Drainage of GA Power’s Plant Mitchell coal ash ponds slated for February - Georgia Power, the largest electric subsidiary of the investor-owned Southern Company, last week scheduled the dewatering process of three ash ponds at its Plant Mitchell for February. The move marks another step in the utility’s ash pond closure plan for Plant Mitchell, a retired coal-fired power station near Albany, Ga. The power company, which first released plans in 2016 to excavate and reuse the plant’s stored coal ash, will drain the old ponds that hold the coal ash produced in the making of electricity and use it to be mixed with cement. The project’s dewatering process is a beneficial reuse of coal ash, won’t pollute the environment when mixed with cement, and helps ensure groundwater quality is protected, according to Georgia Power. “As we begin the dewatering process at Plant Mitchell, we continue to focus on safety and meeting all requirements throughout the process to fulfill our longstanding commitment to protect the environment, our local communities and water quality every step of the way,” said Mark Berry, vice president of environmental and natural resources for Georgia Power, in a statement. Throughout the dewatering process, Georgia Power plans to provide “clear communication to our customers and the community about our progress remains a priority,” Berry added. Roughly two million tons of stored coal ash will be removed from the existing ash ponds for reuse in cement manufacturing. Coal ash has been proven to provide value to certain products, such as concrete, by adding strength and durability. Once the Plant Mitchell project is completed, the ash pond site will be restored as a usable property, according to Georgia Power, which currently recycles more than 85 percent of all ash and gypsum it produces from current operations for various reuses, such as to produce concrete and other construction products.
Appalachian coal mine reclamation bonding issues highlighted in new report | Energy and Environment What will become of abandoned coal mines throughout Appalachia as more and more coal companies go bankrupt?A report released by a coalition of groups in Central Appalachia Thursday suggests answers to that question that could benefit the region while acknowledging how steep the challenge will be.The report, developed by the Reclaiming Appalachia Coalition, a regional collaboration aiming to redevelop communities across the region through mine reclamation projects, highlights the daunting reclamation bonding issues that West Virginia and other states face.Enacted in 1977, the federal Surface Coal Mining and Reclamation Act allows states to regulate their own surface coal mining and reclamation operations while the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement maintains some oversight to keep state programs in compliance with the law, which requires coal mining permit applicants to post a reclamation bond to ensure that regulatory authorities have enough funding to reclaim the site.But actual reclamation costs may exceed bond amounts, and Thursday’s report says the cost of reclaiming at least 490,000 acres of mined land in West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee may amount to $6 billion, far more than the $2.5 billion the report says those states have in available bonds based on a review of state and federal data.A recent trend in bankruptcies among coal companies raises the concerning possibility that much of that land will remain unreclaimed if companies forfeit their bonds.“We have not yet seen a large company abandon many mines, but we are likely about to. Many state bonding programs were not designed to withstand widespread forfeiture resulting from multiple bankruptcies or even the bankruptcy of a single large company,” states the report.More than 50 coal companies have gone bankrupt over the past decade.
Despite dismissed suit against DEP, concerns remain about WV mine reclamation funding - A lawsuit that raised concerns about the financial health of West Virginia’s surface coal mining reclamation program and outlined evidence of a state reclamation bonding shortfall is no more, but the concerns remain.A day after the state Department of Environmental Protection on Dec. 30 notified the federal Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement of a substantial change in its special reclamation fund, as required by federal law, three environmental groups agreed to dismiss their lawsuit against the department in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of West Virginia that had asked the DEP to do just that.
Former mine safety director pleads guilty to federal charge (AP) — A safety director at a Kentucky coal mine has pleaded guilty to a federal charge of rigging dust monitoring in underground mines. Steve DeMoss pleaded guilty last week in federal court in Owensboro. He was one of nine former supervisors and safety officers at the now-bankrupt Armstrong Coal company in western Kentucky charged with tampering with dust monitoring. The miners were charged in 2018 and 2019. Dust levels in underground coal mines are regulated to keep miners from working in conditions that can contribute to black lung disease. DeMoss’ Jan. 12 plea agreement said he ordered workers to remove dust sampling equipment before full readings could be taken and he signed incomplete dust sample reports. DeMoss faces up to a year in prison and a $100,000 fine at his sentencing. An indictment says the offenses happened at Armstrong’s Parkway and Kronos mines between 2013 and 2015. DeMoss was safety director at both mines. The case originated when a group of miners who were fed up with the dust conditions at the mines hired an attorney in 2014. Two other men charged in the original indictment, Ron Ivy and Billy Hearld, have pleaded guilty to similar charges.
Western Kentucky coal executive receives pardon from Trump (WFIE) - Among the list of individuals who received a full pardon from President Donald Trump during his final days in office included a Union County coal executive.Ken Ford, the general manager of River View Coal in Morganfield, was pardoned for a 2003 conviction where he pled guilty to making false statements to federal mining officials. He was sentenced to three years of probation. That was later brought down to one year. River View is a subsidiary of Alliance Coal.
Coal-fired power plant in southern Illinois a major obstacle to Biden’s push for carbon-free electricity by 2035 - Chicago Tribune - As President Joe Biden pushes the nation toward 100% carbon-free electricity to combat climate change, a coal-fired power plant in southern Illinois is one of the biggest roadblocks. The Prairie State Generating Station is among the top 10 industrial sources of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the United States, emitting as much as 2 million cars combined every year. Less than a decade old, the massive electric generation plant is the brainchild of Peabody Energy, a St. Louis-based coal company that for years denied it contributes to global surges of extreme heat, wildfires, drought, flooding and rising seas.Most of the other big U.S. coal plants still operating are at least 40 years old. They are either past or close to the end of their expected life spans. But Prairie State could keep churning out climate-changing pollution for another half century — decades past Biden’s 2035 deadline to purge fossil fuels from the power sector, according to a new analysis published in the journal Science.
Environmentalists push for safe cleanup at nuclear site near Buffalo — Environmental advocacy groups in western New York want state officials to ensure the safety of federal plans to deal with nuclear waste at the West Valley Demonstration Project after a recent federal report found that “critical decisions regarding the project are still unresolved.” The West Valley Demonstration Project “should never have been chosen” to store hazardous material, said Barbara Warren, a member of the Citizens’ Environmental Coalition, an Albany-based group that advocates for safe and healthy communities in New York. The project, about 40 miles from Buffalo, evolved from the Western New York Nuclear Service Center, which was built in the 1960s to convert “spent nuclear fuel from commercial reactors into reusable nuclear material,” according to a Jan. 13 U.S. Government Accountability Office report. In 1976, production of the materials ceased, leaving hundreds of gallons of radioactive material behind. The West Valley Demonstration Project was created after Congress required the Energy Department to be "responsible for solidifying the high-level waste, disposing of waste created by the solidification, and decommissioning the facilities used in the process." The GAO’s congressionally mandated review of the Energy Department’s progress in finding a way to decommission the facility and move or destroy the radioactive waste found that the agency has made progress in the cleanup of the facility, including the decommissioning of 51 out of 55 storage containers as well as the proper disposal of 1.3 million cubic feet of low-level waste. The eventual goal is to demolish the above-ground structures, remove contaminated soil and and relocate the solidified high-level waste. However, according to the report, “critical decisions regarding the cleanup are still unresolved, such as where the remaining waste is to go and what waste, if any, is to remain on-site.” In addition, the GAO determined that the “DOE reported spending about $3.1 billion on contracted cleanup activities, but it cannot estimate the cleanup’s final cost until it decides how it will address the remaining waste.”
Should PSEG's $300M nuclear subsidies be renewed? - Are New Jersey’s three nuclear power plants profitable? That question has been hotly debated since Public Service Enterprise Group was awarded $300 million in annual ratepayer subsidies to avoid the company closing its South Jersey plants in April 2019. Now a state-hired consultant has suggested that any new subsidy for the utility could be significantly reduced. That is detailed in new preliminary reports that assess the company’s bid to retain the lucrative financial incentives for another three years. Perhaps more importantly, a letter from the staff of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities seems to imply that all three nuclear units are not profitable — a reversal of the staff’s stance in 2019 when it recommended the plants did not qualify for the incentives. In a 4-1 vote back then, the BPU commissioners approved the subsidies, ignoring similar recommendations to reject the financial aid by the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel, its own consultant Levitan & Associates and a firm that monitors the competitiveness of the regional power grid, the PJM Interconnection. In the letter posted Thursday on the agency’s website, the staff essentially backed many of the conclusions reached in the Levitan & Associates reports, including assessments by the consultant about what revenue and cost adjustments ought to be considered. In general, the consultant said it found many of the company’s economic projections reasonable but questioned whether some of the assessments underestimated revenues the plants will generate. If so, the consultants said those adjustments “would significantly reduce PSEG’s requested subsidy amounts.’’ In its application the company sought to retain the full $300 million a year subsidy. The staff letter, however, also noted none of those cost and revenue adjustments results in a profitable outcome where revenues exceed costs at all three of the plants.
DeWine wants new list of applicants to replace utility regulator who resigned after FBI probe– Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine wants a new list of candidates to replace top utility regulator Sam Randazzo, who resigned after the FBI searched his home. The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio nominating council offered DeWine a list of four finalists in late December:
- Former Ohio Supreme Court Justice Judi French.
- Angela Amos, a senior policy advisor at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the federal version of PUCO.
- Greg Poulos, executive director of Consumer Advocates of the PJM State Inc.
- Anne Vogel, a top DeWine policy advisor who previously worked for American Electric and Power.
But on Wednesday, DeWine asked the 12-member nominating council to go back to the drawing board. "The list contained candidates who could be an appropriate addition to the PUCO," DeWine wrote. "However, I would like to consider additional capable candidates before making my appointment to the vacancy."The appointment to the PUCO, which oversees the state's utilities, turned into an unusually high profile pick after Randazzo resigned in November.Documents subpoenaed by the FBI later revealed Randazzo assisted in drafting House Bill 6, which provides a $1 billion bailout to two nuclear plants in northern Ohio owned by Energy Harbor, previously known as FirstEnergy Solutions.That law came under scrutiny by federal investigators who allege companies, such as FirstEnergy, spent nearly $61 million in bribes to pass and defend House Bill 6. Former House Speaker Larry Householder and four others were arrested as part of the probe.
Ohio Utica Production Falls Off in Tough First Quarter for Operators - Ohio’s unconventional oil and natural gas production declined sharply in the first quarter as operators grappled with a challenging period in which energy demand crumbled due to the coronavirus pandemic and commodity prices followed with a historic decline. Unconventional natural gas production, driven almost entirely by volumes from the Utica Shale, was 581.6 Bcf during the period, down 15% from the 684.8 Bcf reported in 4Q2019, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR). Unconventional oil production, also largely from the Utica, declined by 13% over the same period and came in at 5.8 million bbl.Year/year figures were a bit different, as unconventional gas production dropped by 5% from 1Q2019 and oil production increased by 16%. Operators also faced headwinds early last year as they curbed spending and some production as investors searched for better returns and gas prices were low. But 1Q2020 saw significant production curtailments and spending cuts as operators in Appalachia and across the country grappled with the pandemic’s fallout. Appalachian producers shut in both wet and dry gas production. The belt tightening came on top of plans to cut spending heading in 2020 given surplus U.S. gas supplies and stagnant prices. ODNR said the average amount of oil produced by each well during the first quarter was 2,346 bbl, while the average amount of natural gas produced by each was 231.8 MMcf. Ohio law does not require the separate reporting of natural gas liquids or condensate. Oil and gas totals include those volumes. The agency’s latest production report lists 2,573 horizontal shale wells, of which 2,509 reported production.
Buckeye XPress Project Placed in Service in Ohio - TC Energy’s U.S. Natural Gas team started the new year on a high note, placing into service its Buckeye XPress (BXP) project in southern Ohio. The milestone comes just in time as winter weather permeates the U.S. Midwest and temperatures drop, according to a Jan. 19 company statement. BXP adds approximately 275 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas produced in the region and will be used to heat and power homes and businesses for years to come. “The in-service milestone demonstrates our commitment to delivering the energy Americans need, every day,” said Stanley Chapman III, TC Energy executive vice president and president the company’s U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines. “BXP improves reliability along a critical natural gas supply route in southern Ohio and helped support local economies during a difficult year. “I am proud of our team for completing this project safely and with stewardship for the environment,” Stan added. BXP involved the replacement of 66 miles of existing pipeline with safer, more reliable, 36-in. diameter coated pipe, enhancing the sustainability of TC Energy’s infrastructure. The project proceeded cautiously in a year beset by a global pandemic and an economic slowdown. TC Energy worked with its contractors to come up with a comprehensive COVID-19 response plan. The company hired locally and enlisted a few local restaurants and cafĂ©s to feed its crews. TC Energy also donated to food pantries and emergency medical services.
Akron wants to sell mineral rights for the fracking of 475 acres of water shed land - Akron Beacon Journal - Akron Council has given initial approval of a deal to allow horizontal drilling and fracking under 475 acres of public land at the La Due Reservoir, which is upstream from the city’s main drinking water supply along the Cuyahoga River.“We’ve been working on this for probably a year and we’ve been watching the oil prices,” Public Service Director Chris Ludle told Council Monday during a committee meeting.If approved again by all of council on Jan. 25, the deal would add another red triangle to a map almost completely covered by red triangles — each representing an oil or gas well in Geauga County where the reservoir is located.Akron owns and manages about 33% of the Cuyahoga River shoreline through Portage and Geauga counties. The city protects wildlife and wetlands, manages the forestry and keeps the water shed fenced as part of a broader effort to safeguard the drinking supply. The gas well deal would allow the city to continue these environmental efforts while tapping into revenue streams locked thousands of feet below the surface where the Utica and Marcellus shale formation overlap in eastern Ohio.The deal would give the city a one-time payment of $500 and acre, or $237,500 total, Ludle said. In addition, the city would get 15% of the royalties for any producing wells. Drilling would not be permitted on the city’s 475 acres just south of the reservoir. Instead, the city said the operator, DP Energy Auburn LLC, would use adjacent, private property to drill down then turn horizontally to reach potential reserves below the city land. If the wells are dry, the contract says they would need to be capped after three years, at which point the city would take back the mineral rights. DP Energy Auburn LLC could not be reached for comment. According to Ohio Secretary of State records, the company was incorporated to do business in Ohio on Jan. 1 by Patrick D’Andrea, an Akron attorney whose website says he “handles oil and gas, real estate development, and personal injury cases.” Ludle said the 475 acres in question represent 3% of the public land around the reservoir. The deal would not allow the drilling company to access the land unless given city approval. And there would be no storage tanks, equipment or access roads installed on the city land.
Akron City Council considers allowing fracking on city-owned land near reservoir in Geauga County connected to Cuyahoga River - cleveland.com– City Council is considering a deal to allow a company to drill and frack under 475 acres of city-owned land at LaDue Reservoir in Geauga County, upstream from Akron’s drinking water supply on the Cuyahoga River.And while the city relies on surface water from Lake Rockwell for its drinking water supply, the potential environmental impact on ground water from fracking still has stirred some concerns.The company – DP Energy Auburn, LLC – owns properties adjacent to the city-owned land and is offering the city $237,500, or $500 per acre. Akron would also receive 15% of the royalties for any oil or gas produced by the wells. “They will be putting gas and oil wells on adjacent properties, so none of the equipment - no drilling equipment, no tank batteries, no road access - will be on City of Akron property,” Public Service Director Chris Ludle told the Planning and Economic Development Committee. “They are using our property to gather enough land to drill these wells.” DP Energy Auburn is seeking to drill horizontally under the city-owned land. If the city does not approve the deal, the company will likely drill underneath adjacent properties it already owns, Ludle said. And in the event that they strike oil or gas, “if that vein goes from our land to their land, how do we know that they’re not drawing under our land and taking the oil and gas?” Ludle said. Ludle said the city has been negotiating with DP Energy Auburn for “about a year,” and that his office has been watching oil prices fluctuate. If the company drills and doesn’t hit anything within three years, it will be required to cap the well and all the mineral rights revert back to the city, Ludle said. DP Energy Auburn was registered with the Ohio Secretary of State’s office on Jan. 1, records show, to Akron attorney Patrick D’Andrea. According to his law firm’s website, D’Andrea was an Akron City Councilman from 1979 to 1989 and a former Summit County Director of Development who currently “represents numerous landowners and small businesses in the Ohio Utica and Marcellus Shale Oil and Gas play included leases and leasing, amending existing leases, pipeline agreements and rights of way, oil and gas mineral sales, location agreements and much more.” D’Andrea did not immediately respond to an inquiry from cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer. Akron owns about one-third of the Cuyahoga River shoreline through Portage and Geauga counties. LaDue Reservoir, formerly called the Akron City Reservoir, is in Auburn and Troy townships and connects to Bridge Creek and Black Brook, both tributaries of the Cuyahoga River. On Jan. 11, the Planning and Economic Development Committee voted to put the proposal on the consent agenda, a set of legislation routinely passed during the following week’s regular council meeting. At-Large Councilman Jeff Fusco, At-Large Councilwoman Ginger Baylor and Ward 7 Councilman Donnie Kammer voted in favor of placing it on the consent agenda, while Ward 5 Councilwoman Tara Samples shook her head and abstained from the vote. Within days, Samples moved to pull the proposal from the consent agenda.
Will states use the Capitol riot to crack down on pipeline protests? - Early last week, with national attention focused on accountability for the pro-Trump rioters who stormed the capitol building in Washington, D.C., Ohio quietly became the 13th state since 2017 to legislate harsher penalties for trespassing on or otherwise interfering with energy and industrial infrastructure — a move that activists and civil liberties groups say is a transparent attempt to criminalize nonviolent protest.“The whole idea behind this is to chill protests at oil and gas industry sites,” said Reverend Joan Van Becelaere, the executive director of the Unitarian Universalist Justice of Ohio, a liberal, faith-based nonprofit focused on immigration, environmental, and economic justice. “It will really cause nonprofits, churches, and other groups that are concerned about climate justice to think twice about sponsoring any protest or demonstration.”Ohio’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, signed Senate Bill 33 on Monday, making trespassing on oil and gas sites a first-degree misdemeanor punishable with up to six months in prison and a $1,000 fine. (Criminal trespass in Ohio is already a fourth-degree misdemeanor punishable with up to a month in prison and $250 in fines.) The new legislation ups the penalty for trespassing on property with so-called critical infrastructure, a long list of facilities including pipelines, compressor stations, chemical plants, and telephone poles. It also makes “improperly tamper[ing]” with critical infrastructure a third-degree felony that could result in up to five years in prison. Organizations that support such activities could also face civil lawsuits and up to $100,000 in fines. (A spokesperson for DeWine did not respond to Grist’s questions about the governor’s support for the legislation.) The bill was first introduced almost two years ago and passed the state senate in May 2019. For most of 2020, however, the state’s Republican lawmakers focused on blocking DeWine’s coronavirus-related public health orders and the fallout after key lawmakers were arrested for allegedly accepting bribes to bail out two nuclear plants, so the critical infrastructure bill languished in the legislature’s lower chamber. But during the last week of the legislative session in December, the bill found new life. It passed the state’s house of representatives and was sent to the governor’s desk on the last day of the session.
Antero Resources (AR) Jumps 24.8% in a Month: Here's Why - Antero Resources Corporation’s shares have jumped 24.8% in the past month compared with the industry’s 16.8% rally. The company is the third largest natural gas producer in the United States. In the southwestern core of the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale plays, Antero Resources’ footprint covers more than 542,000 net acres. In the resources, the company owns many undeveloped core drilling locations, which has brightened up the upstream energy player’s production outlook. Notably, Antero Resources is expecting significant well cost reduction in the Marcellus that will aid its bottom line. Moreover, the company has hedged 93% of the estimated 2021 natural gas volumes at $2.78 per MMBtu, thereby combating the commodity price volatility. Also, the balance sheet of Antero Resources has lower exposure to debt capital as compared to the composite companies belonging to the industry. Antero Resources has a 29% ownership interest in Antero Midstream Corporation AM through which the upstream firm generates steady revenues. Remarkably, with its midstream energy assets, Antero Midstream provides services to gas production in the Marcellus and Utica shales. Despite so many positive factors aiding the stock’s price rally, one point is needed to be kept in mind. Notably, more than 60% of the company’s net leasehold acreage is undeveloped. Some of the leases in the Marcellus and Utica acreage have set a condition for the company to drill commercially productive wells. Hence, the company can possibly lose the rights under some specific leases if the upstream firm finds it difficult to drill commercially-productive wells.
Students receive lesson in economic development - Students participating in Youth Leadership Guernsey, a program sponsored by the Cambridge Area Chamber of Commerce, received a lesson in economic development recently. The students who are juniors at Cambridge, Meadowbrook, John Glenn and Buckeye Trail high schools, meet once a month to develop their leadership skills. "The students participating in this program are chosen based on their leadership potential," said Jennifer Vincent, Leadership Guernsey administrator. Speakers from Cambridge’s Office of Economic and Community Development, Cambridge/Guernsey County Community Improvement Corporation and the Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program gave students a glimpse of the work they do to create economic opportunities in the county. Among the speakers this month was David Hill, chairman of OOGEEP. He detailed the economic opportunities the oil and gas industry has created in Guernsey County since the start of the Utica Shale boom. Guernsey County was the top oil producing county in the state of Ohio in 2019 according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. JobsOhio data shows the industry invested nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in the county in the first half of 2019 alone. All this investment activity has led to job opportunities for Guernsey county residents. The industry directly and indirectly supports thousands of jobs at every education level. The industry needs a wide variety of skills to function, and employs everyone from finance marketing professionals, to welders and construction workers. “The oil and gas industry offers opportunities to everybody, and has invested heavily in Guernsey County,” said Hill. “I encourage students looking to enter the workforce right after high school to consider the industry, and for students planning to attend college or a trade school, OOGEEP offers a scholarship program to help pay the costs.” Students interested in applying for one of OOGEEP’s scholarships or learning more about careers in the oil and gas industry can do so by visiting https://www.oogeep.org/teacher-students/scholarships/.
Erie County landowners gave access for pipeline. Now they're getting hit with liens— A segment of a multimillion-dollar energy project runs under the far end of Richard and Barbara English's farm on Old Albion Road in Springfield Township. Nearly four years ago, in April 2017, the Englishes received a payment in exchange for a right-of-way that allowed a section of the 28.3-mile Risberg natural gas pipeline to be installed on a swath of their property. The 2,300 feet of pipe went in below the soil near where the Englishes grow corn and soybeans. Court records show the couple got $10 per foot. Scores of the English's neighbors also granted rights-of-way for the pipeline. So did property owners in Ashtabula County, Ohio. More than 100 landowners in all agreed to provide access. The Risberg Pipeline's owner, the Erie-based RH Energytrans, needed the rights-of-way to run mile after mile of 12-inch steel pipe from Elk Creek Township, in western Erie County, to North Kingsville, Ohio, just west of the Pennsylvania line. The total planned cost of the project: $86 million. RH Energytrans developed the Risberg Pipeline as an extension of an existing pipeline that draws gas from national transmission lines. The natural gas started flowing through the new section in December 2019, providing Dominion Energy Ohio with up to 40 million cubic feet of natural gas a day — enough to meet the daily needs of about 150,000 households.The pipeline is also expected to provide the natural gas needs of a $474 million pig iron plant that has been proposed for Ashtabula.The Englishes and the other property owners believed their connection to the pipeline was over after the pipe had been buried on their property.Then the legal papers arrived.On Dec. 17, a deputy with the Erie County Sheriff's Office showed up at the Englishes' house. The deputy served them with a document known as a mechanic's lien, a legal instrument that contractors attach to a property to secure payment of a debt from a residence or business. The amount of the debt in the English's mechanic's lien was staggering: $18,946,185. The name of the contractor who filed the lien was the Wood Group USA Inc., of Houston Texas. It is the company that built the Risberg Pipeline for RH Energytrans. At first glance, the mechanic's lien appeared to state that the Englishes owed the Wood Group USA nearly $19 million and that the lien would be forever attached to the couple's property until they satisfied the debt. A closer reading shows that the liens are attached only to the improvements related to the pipeline work, and that "no lien is being claimed against any improvements, dwellings, structures, facilities or fixtures that are not related or connected" to the pipeline. Even so, the lien raises the possibility that a small part of the Englishes' property could be encumbered with a debt.
Federal energy commission opts not to consider PennEast Pipeline a day before Biden becomes president - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Tuesday opted not to consider an amended proposal for a controversial $1 billion natural gas pipeline that would traverse across New Jersey and the Lehigh Valley.In September of last year, the commission issued an environmental assessment of PennEast’s amended proposal to split the project into two phases with new interconnection facilities at Church Road in Bethlehem Township, Pennsylvania.This assessment, which drew opposition from both state and local officials, determined that “with appropriate mitigating measures,” the PennEast Pipeline’s amended proposal “would not constitute a major federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment.”The commission’s decision to table consideration of the amended proposal comes a day before Wednesday’s inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. Outgoing President Donald Trump has been a supporter of this pipeline project and others across the nation.According to the New Jersey Conservation Foundation, the commission removed its scheduled consideration of the revised proposal on Tuesday after Commissioner Neal Chatterjee cited concerns raised by the foundation and The Watershed Institute. Specifically, the organization said that Chatterjee argued that action on the amendment would contradict the Natural Gas Act’s prohibition on modifying or setting aside orders currently before a federal court.Chatterjee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.In November 2019, PennEast asked the Supreme Court to review an appeals decision issued by the Federal Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in September. The lower court had ruled that the PennEast Pipeline could not seize New Jersey-owned land in order to build the gas line under the legal doctrine of sovereign immunity, which exempts New Jersey from condemnation lawsuits initiated by private parties like PennEast. The Supreme Court in turn requested the Solicitor General for the Department of Justice file a brief on the case, which urged the court to overturn the decision. Earlier this month, the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office filed its own brief challenging this argument and asked the Supreme Court not to hear PennEast’s appeal.
GlobalData: new pipelines necessary for Marcellus and Utica shales to supply natural gas to Gulf Coast The Appalachia Basin, made up of the Marcellus formations and the Utica Shale, accounted for more than 40% of the natural gas produced in the US in 2020. Unlike many of the oil plays in the US Lower 48, natural gas plays, including the Appalachia Basin, saw a less drastic change in production and drilling activity during the economic contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.GlobalData’s latest market analysis report, Marcellus and Utica Shales in the US, 2020, reveals that the Appalachia region averaged 32.19 billion ft3/d and 33.44 billion ft3/d in 2019 and 2020, respectively. While major oil-producing operators slashed their 2020 capital expenditure up to 50 - 60%, the top three producers in the Appalachia Basin – EQT Corporation, Antero Resources, and Southwestern Energy – have cut their capital only by 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively.Andrew Folse, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The future prices for Henry Hub in 2020 are currently averaging US$2.75 per thousand ft/3, which prompts many companies to increase drilling and completion activities. The higher price is linked to the growing exports of LNG, growth in the number of heating days, and the drawdowns in the US natural gas storage. In 2019, the US exported approximately 5 billion ft3/d of LNG, which increased to 6.53 billion ft3/d in 2020. The EIA forecasts that LNG exports will continue to grow to an average of 8.50 billion ft3/d in 2021." The outlook for the Marcellus and Utica plays is closely tied to the demand for LNG exports from the US. Currently the US has an export capacity of 9.17 billion ft3/d, and, with current planned and under construction projects, this value will grow to 11.97 billion ft3/d in 2023. While other plays near the Gulf Coast such as the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and the Haynesville are better located to provide natural gas to meet LNG feedstock demand, the Marcellus and Utica can also play a relevant role in supplying natural gas to the new LNG facilities located on the Gulf Coast, but additional pipeline capacity will be needed.
FERC Dems Criticize ‘Piecemeal’ MVP Construction, Possibly Stalling Future Authorizations - FERC in its monthly meeting Tuesday failed to pass three draft orders for Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP), a move that could augur poorly for the developer’s expectations to quickly complete construction amid the transition to Democratic leadership at the agency. In recent months, MVP has sought the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s blessing to continue expanding construction efforts, including seeking the elimination of an exclusion zone around the Jefferson National Forest and altering its waterbody-crossing methods to allow for more work on the first 77 miles of the project. While three separate MVP-related items appeared on the agenda for this month’s FERC meeting that could have advanced these efforts, none of them garnered a majority vote, as both Democratic Commissioners Richard Glick and Allison Clements voted no. Recently-installed Republican Commissioner Mark Christie did not participate. The U.S. Forest Service finalized an updated review of the project in December, and MVP late last week provided FERC with a copy of a right-of-way granted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) that would ostensibly allow for construction through the national forest lands protected by the exclusion zone. However, comments Tuesday from Glick and Clements suggest this might not be enough to persuade a Democratic-led FERC to authorize further construction activities for MVP. After a number of legal setbacks in recent years, the pipeline has made significant progress in obtaining new or reissued federal permits required under its FERC certificate. However, updated Nationwide Permit 12 (NWP 12) waterbody crossing permitting granted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was stayed by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in November. This leaves the project short of the requirements under Environmental Condition 9 of its certificate and thus should preclude any construction activities as long as any permits remain outstanding, Glick argued. The proposed orders on Tuesday’s agenda “would’ve continued the Commission’s piecemeal approach to authorizing resumption of construction” on MVP, Glick said. Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC told clients following the meeting that the BLM permitting “would normally clear the way for construction resuming” near the Jefferson National Forest. “As we understand it, there are no NWP 12 crossings within the footprint of the pipeline’s route” through the national forest, the analysts said. “Nevertheless, it appears that both Commissioners Glick and Clements are disinclined to allow any additional notices to proceed with construction while the NWP 12 remains outstanding. President Biden, who took office Wednesday, is expected to replace current FERC Chairman James Danly with a Democrat. The ClearView analysts said they expect Biden to hand the gavel to either Glick or Clements “within days.” © 2020 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
Federal commission slows Mountain Valley Pipeline -Federal energy regulators have slowed down the Mountain Valley Pipeline project, surprising some opponents of the project by not approving a request from Mountain Valley to bore under 69 waterbodies and wetlands along 77 miles of the pipeline at its northernmost end in West Virginia. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission split in a 2-2 vote Tuesday, with a fifth commissioner abstaining from voting, setting the issue aside without a resolution. The FERC’s deadlock denied Mountain Valley’s requests to complete construction and final restoration work along the first 77 miles of the pipeline and effectively eliminate an exclusion zone where construction had been barred. The commission had issued an order last month allowing construction along a 17-mile stretch of the 25-mile zone covering parts of the Jefferson National Forest and surrounding private land. FERC Commissioner Richard Glick said during the commission’s virtual meeting that, in his view, the project could resume construction only after it secures all federal permits for waterbody crossings. In November, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals stayed permitting for waterbody construction that had been issued by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. “The reason the commission doesn’t authorize construction in the absence in a permit is that it makes no sense to enable a developer to begin digging up land and laying down the pipe when it may be that the subsequent permit is never obtained or it may be that the route of the project has to change because of the conditions associated with the subsequent permit,” Glick said. Glick has been consistent on that point, but he was joined in opposing Mountain Valley’s request by a commissioner who was sworn in last month, Allison Clements. The commission’s newest member, Mark C. Christie, abstained from voting. Mary O’Driscoll, a FERC spokeswoman, said Christie felt that Mountain Valley’s proposal might relate to his 17 years with the Virginia State Corporation Commission, from which he joined the FERC earlier this month. O’Driscoll added that Christie “may explore such issues” in these proceedings going forward.
In a rare rebuke, FERC fails to approve Mountain Valley Pipeline's proposal -- Federal regulators hit the brakes Tuesday on a request to speed up construction of a portion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, throwing another wrench into the problematic project. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission deadlocked 2-2 on Mountain Valley’s request to bore under streams and wetlands along the pipeline’s first 77 miles in West Virginia. After running into legal problems with a permitting process that would have allowed digging trenches through water bodies, the company asked FERC to authorize an alternative method of drilling a tunnel below some of the streams and wetlands through which the pipe would pass. Approval by the commission would have enabled Mountain Valley to put the first 77 miles of the pipeline into service while work on the remaining 226 miles — including a stretch through the New River and Roanoke valleys — is slowed by legal attacks from environmental groups. But at FERC’s virtual meeting Tuesday, an order approving the boring request failed to get a majority vote. With the panel split 2-2, and the fifth commissioner abstaining from voting, the matter essentially died unresolved. “It’s a significant setback” for Mountain Valley, said Gillian Giannetti, a staff attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council. ain Valley’s request to bore under the 69 water bodies that lie between the pipeline’s origin in northern West Virginia and the point where it will connect with another pipeline. Boring “inherently presents significant risks” that should be evaluated more thoroughly, the council wrote in comments submitted to FERC last month. “Mountain Valley failed to conduct geotechnical surveys, groundwater surveys and subsurface soil composition studies necessary to assess whether conventional bores are appropriate,” the filing stated. Natalie Cox, a spokeswoman for the joint venture of five energy companies building the pipeline, said the tie vote means that FERC could revisit the stream-crossing issue in the future. However, the regulatory landscape for natural gas pipelines will likely change under the administration of President-elect Joe Biden, who is expected to be less supportive of the industry than President Donald Trump. FERC usually meets on the third Thursday of every month, but the January meeting was moved up to Tuesday — one day before Biden was to be sworn in. A spokesperson for the agency said the change was made to accommodate a schedule that included Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and Wednesday’s closing of federal offices for the inauguration.
Q&A: Manchin on fracking, climate and a clean energy standard -- Friday, January 15, 2021 -- The senator who once put a bullet through the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill for a campaign ad will become an even more important gatekeeper on climate change this year.West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin will take over the Energy and Natural Resources Committee as soon as next week as his party promises to push increasingly ambitious ideas against global warming.Manchin helped pass three bipartisan energy and public lands bills in the last Congress with outgoing Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). The ENR Committee achieved bipartisan success, even as Capitol Hill devolved into further partisan gridlock."We did a lot, but there is still a lot in energy we want to get done," Manchin said in an interview with E&E News yesterday.Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), in a letter to colleagues this week, promised "bold legislation to defeat the climate crisis by investing in clean infrastructure and manufacturing."At the center of those discussions is Manchin, a longtime defender of his state's coal industry and an "all of the above" energy strategy, who has also worked to make inroads with environmentalists.Manchin spoke with E&E News about his vision for the committee, including his views on clean energy standard legislation and taking care of communities displaced by climate rules.He also weighed in on President-elect Joe Biden's Energy secretary pick Jennifer Granholm, the former Michigan governor, and Interior secretary pick Rep. Deb Haaland (D-N.M.).
Lamont: 'I don't want to build Killingly' Energy Center -Gov. Ned Lamont on Tuesday said the words out loud more straightforward than he ever has: “I don’t want to build Killingly.” He was referring to the now five-year battle waged by environmentalists and others against building the proposed Killingly Energy Center, a 650-megawatt natural gas power plant. Those who oppose it have argued it flies in the face of Lamont’s executive order for a 100% zero-carbon electric sector by 2040, it does not support his broader commitment to fighting climate change, and it just isn’t needed. And while he’s hinted that he’s not thrilled with the prospect of the Killingly power plant, he’s never been quite that blunt. His comments were made to more than 300 environmental advocates attending the opening sessions of the Connecticut League of Conservation Voters annual legislative priorities summit, held over Zoom this year. The governor hinted at slowing permitting and being able to “play some games there.” He also hinted that market forces may ultimately take over. “I’m not positive you’re going to see Killingly built at all,” he said. Recent analysis by the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection shows electricity demand down 18 percent in the state, though many believe it will come back up as more items, such as heating, become electrified and more people purchase electric vehicles, which will need charging. The plant has received siting council approval, after two rejections. DEEP has issued an air discharge permit and a water quality certificate for impacts to wetlands. Still pending is a wastewater discharge permit, which is also needed, and Eversource’s water quality certification for a pipeline to bring the natural gas to the plant. “As a natural gas distribution company, we work to provide service to various potential customers — like the developer of the proposed Killingly power plant,” said Eversource spokesman Mitch Gross.
A bankruptcy milestone: Chesapeake plan approved, no changes to executive leadership expected - There is much that remains to be done before Chesapeake formally emerges from bankruptcy. But Doug Lawler, the company’s CEO, told employees in an email sent Thursday morning said a judge’s approval of its exit plan late Wednesday marked “a critical milestone” in its future. The ruling, he said, puts the company on a path “towards fundamentally resetting our company and preparing us to emerge a stronger and more competitive enterprise.” The ruling by Judge David R. Jones sets the stage for the company to rejoin a business world where it can freely operate once again. No changes in Chesapeake’s executive leadership team are expected, although a filing in the case states its existing board of directors will be replaced when the company’s equity owners assume control of the new business. Lawler, the filing states, will keep a seat on the new board.
Proposals to prohibit natural gas bans may threaten cities’ clean energy goals - Kansas and Missouri may become the next states to block cities from banning natural gas, with hearings on legislation in both states expected soon.Although natural gas bans at this point are more of a coastal phenomenon, many Midwestern cities have adopted climate goals that will be difficult to achieve with continued reliance on natural gas. More than two dozen Missouri cities, including Kansas City and St. Louis, have established clean energy goals, along with Lawrence, Kansas. A coalition of Kansas City suburbs recently adopted a climate plan committing to providing city services using only clean energy by 2030, and for all community energy use to be sourced from renewables by 2035.Promoters of clean energy in both states say the pending legislation preempts local decision-making, and they expressed concern that the language could interfere with transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables.“It does seem that the legislation … was intended to prohibit cities like Lawrence from taking steps to reach those goals we set,” said Jasmin Moore, the sustainability director for Lawrence and Douglas County. In March, the Lawrence City Council committed to a gradual transition to clean energy. The first goal is to use electricity only from renewable sources by 2025. Natural gas apparently still would be acceptable. Moore said the city has contracted with Evergy to meet 98% of its power needs with wind.The final goal calls for clean energy in all sectors citywide by 2035. That presumably would preclude the use of natural gas. Moore continued: “I think [the bill] has the potential to slow down the process. The goals of Lawrence are pretty aggressive, and that was intentional because of the climate crisis. The city felt this kind of action is needed now. We wanted to demonstrate leadership in the state.”Zack Pistora, legislative director for the Kansas Sierra Club, said it would be “shortsighted and irresponsible for the state legislature to preemptively interfere with local governments’ energy plans, especially when using Kansas-based, pollution-free energy resources like wind, solar, energy storage, and efficiency [that] can create jobs, improve health and social equity outcomes, and save residents a lot of money. “The Energy Choice Act doesn’t sound like it gives much choice to our local communities and their elected leaders who want to move past the negative costs of fossil fuels.”
Fading Expectations for Frigid Temperatures Weigh Down Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures plunged on Tuesday after forecasts over the holiday weekend trended warmer for late January and early next month, diminishing prior expectations for a widespread winter freeze that would fuel robust heating demand. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.546/MMBtu, down 19.1 cents day/day. March fell 16.7 cents to $2.529. Spot gas prices were also under heavy pressure. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 15.5 cents to $2.690. Following the shift in forecasts, EBW Analytics Group estimated a cumulative decline of 70.2 Bcf of demand compared to projections prior to the holiday weekend, when models had “called for a sustained cold air connection to develop” before the end of January. “With only three or four weeks left in the heart of winter, the stakes are high for natural gas,” the EBW analysts said. Forecasts Tuesday still called for solid blasts of cold late this month – with lows in the teens across much of the northern United States – though not as cold as the subzero temperatures previously anticipated. The colder temperatures were not likely to last deep into the first week of February as earlier outlooks anticipated. Learn More - All News Access Models over the weekend trended “more toward a dominant” positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation pattern and did so “while lessening the influence” of North Atlantic Oscillation blocking, Bespoke Weather Services said. This would result “not only in less cold as we move into the latter part of January but sets the stage to actually revert back warmer than normal into February.” “It is getting difficult to envision any sustainable rally at this stage, as the cold forecasts for the conclusion of this month are failing versus expectations from the other day, and we are already seeing signs of the turn back to a warmer-than-normal regime into February,” the firm said. Strong U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels, driven by steady northern Asia demand amid harsh winter conditions and supply interruptions, hovered above 11 Bcf and near record levels early in January, NGI data show. However, LNG volumes dipped below the 11 Bcf threshold on Tuesday. In a holiday abbreviated week, markets will have to wait an extra day to see if LNG demand factored into the domestic storage withdrawal for last week.
February Natural Gas Futures Fall on Demand Uncertainty; Spot Prices Stumble - In a third consecutive day of topsy-turvy trading, natural gas futures ultimately finished firmly in negative territory, as markets fixated more on shifting weather patterns than a bullish storage report and rising U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $2.666/MMBtu, down 6.1 cents day/day. March fell 5.9 cents to $2.630. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. also lost ground, shedding 10.5 cents to $2.740 after losing 8.0 cents the day before amid seasonally mild temperatures. NatGasWeather said data in both the domestic Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European model had shifted warmer this week and presented “a rather bearish pattern through Jan. 21 with only modest cold shots into the U.S.” The firm continues to expect frigid temperatures in late January across the interior West and Midwest, but the likelihood of such conditions advancing deep into the East or toward the South diminished when compared to forecasts earlier in the week. This lowered the odds of strong national heating demand in coming weeks and weighed on gas futures. “The latest GFS still shows colder air eventually reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast Jan. 25-28, but we think this period is also subject to warmer trends in time,” NatGasWeather said.
US working natural gas volumes in underground storage decline 187 Bcf: EIA -— The US Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly draw from gas in underground storage of the current heating season on Jan. 22, but Henry Hub futures continued to flounder as milder weather points to smaller pulls ahead. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Storage inventories decreased 187 Bcf to 3.009 Tcf for the week ended Jan. 15. The report was issued one day later than usual due to federal offices being closed for the US presidential inauguration on Jan. 20. Lower temperatures propelled residential-commercial and industrial demand nearly 4 Bcf/d higher week over week, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. In addition, gas-fired power generation demand grew 2.2 Bcf/d, with weakness in wind generation and higher total loads driving thermal generation higher. In addition to stronger demand, total supply fell 900 MMcf/d week on week, with onshore production losses accounting for most of the decline. The withdrawal was more than the market expected and 10 Bcf stronger than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. The pull was much more than the 97 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 167 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes now stand 36 Bcf, or 1.2%, more than the year-ago level of 2.973 Tcf, and 198 Bcf, or 7%, more than the five-year average of 2.811 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub February contract shed 5 cents to $2.44/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. March, the last month of the heating season, also fell 5 cents to $2.45/MMBtu. Natural gas prices saw some selling pressure during the week in progress, with the February contract falling below $2.50/MMBtu. Losses can be traced to weather models once again backing off on expected cold, which has been a common occurrence this winter. Losses in forward-looking heating-degree days, and thus demand, have resulted in an upward creep in market expectations for end-of-March storage, which are now hovering near 1.65-1.7 Tcf, according to Platts Analytics. Moreover, with numerous weather forecasts suggesting February could come in significantly milder than normal, the term structure in the market reflects sentiment that winter has been "cancelled," with the balance of winter-to-summer spread nearing 20 cents. The Platts Analytics supply and demand model currently forecasts a 137 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 22, which would grow the surplus versus the five-year average by 37 Bcf.
As Weather Outlook Warms, Weekly Natural Gas Prices Cool Off - Natural Gas Intelligence -- In an abbreviated four-day trading week following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday, weekly cash prices recorded a double-digit drop as temperatures climbed across much of the Lower 48 and heating demand eased. Comfortable conditions moved in early in the week and stuck around until Thursday, notably including highs in the 40s and low 50s at midweek in the northern Plains and over swaths of the Midwest. Those temperatures were well above usual highs in the 20s and 30s for these key sections of the country that draw heavily on natural gas to power furnaces. Heating demand dwindled as a result. “Weather is king,” Bespoke Weather Services said. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Jan. 19-22 period fell 21.0 cents to $2.610. As the trading week closed, Chicago Citygate was down 23.5 cents to $2.405, while Katy was off 25.0 cents to $2.465 and OGT was down 28.0 cents to $2.340. Spot prices were under particularly heavy pressure early in the trading week, falling nearly 30 cents over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday. For the week ahead, Maxar’s Weather Desk was expecting lows ranging from near zero to the teens in the Midwest and parts of the East, potentially fueling momentum in cash prices in coming days. EBW Analytics Group, however, noted that the mid-range outlook was murky, given substantial shifts in weather models over the past week. “This exceptionally high model volatility could result in continued sharp price swings,” EBW said. “It stems from strong bullish signals in the Arctic and over Greenland, coupled with uncertainty in the Pacific and the tropics.” Natural gas futures struggled to find footing throughout the week, as the volatile forecasts for the rest of this month and the first few days of February ultimately pointed to lighter heating demand than meteorologists had expected as recently as mid-January. Futures lost ground each day of the trading week. Intense cold was still expected over most of the northern United States in the final full week of January, but unlike earlier forecasts, meteorologists were not looking for freezing conditions to extend as far south as Texas or last into February. A warming pattern is projected to return by early next month, impacting demand for gas-powered heating.
US Oil, Natural Gas Infrastructure Growth Potential Said 'Significant' as LNG, Mexico Exports Climb -- The potential for oil and natural gas infrastructure development remains “significant” through 2025 as the U.S. economy recovers from Covid-19 and exports increase, according to ICF Resources Inc. In a report prepared for the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA), ICF said one scenario used by researchers to evaluate changes to markets and infrastructure development found that almost 33 Bcf/d of capacity is expected to be placed into service during between 2020 and 2025. The projected development is lower on a per-year basis than it was in 2018, which was “a banner year for pipeline construction,” according to ICF. “While projected development is down by almost 6 Bcf/d, or about 15%, from the level projected” in a second ICF scenario, “it still requires a substantial amount of new infrastructure,” researchers said. ICF relied on its market modeling tools to complete two scenarios of North American oil and gas markets through 2025. The first scenario, ICF Q1 2020, showed market and infrastructure development trends prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and absent extended delays in infrastructure development. The second, INGAA 2020, is more recent, attempting to fully capture impacts of the pandemic and extended delays in infrastructure development. “The pandemic has no doubt slowed the pace of infrastructure development as demand for natural gas and oil were impacted globally, but this report shows that will change as markets rebound,” said INGAA Foundation Executive Director Tony Straquadine. “The industry is well positioned to respond to the needs and challenges outlined in this report as domestic demand and export capacity return to the trajectory we saw entering 2020.” In the report, titled “North American Midstream Infrastructure – A Near Term Update Through 2025,” the ICF research team said it expects markets to rebound as demand returns. Domestic natural gas use is expected to rise to an average of roughly 87.5 Bcf/d in 2025, which is about 3.6% above the 2019 level. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to be a major driver of future demand growth for U.S. export markets, according to the report. ICF researchers noted that last July, monthly average feed gas deliveries to gas export facilities dipped below 3.5 Bcf/d for the first time since 2018. However, feed gas deliveries set a record in November, surpassing 10 Bcf/d. December 2020 feed gas deliveries were higher still, finishing the month at around 11 Bcf/d. The INGAA 2020 scenario projects that LNG exports could rise to 11.7 Bcf/d by 2025 from 5.7 Bcf/d in 2019, an increase of more than 100%.
Largest single shipment of ethane heads to China after loading at US export facility — The world's largest ethane carrier was headed toward the Panama Canal on Jan. 19 after loading at Energy Transfer's terminal in Nederland, Texas, P latts trade flow software cFlow showed. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up The Seri Everest, a Very Large Ethane Carrier, departed on its maiden voyage from the Orbit Gulf Coast NGL Exports facility at the terminal on Jan. 17, en route to Satellite Petrochemical's Lianyungang ethane cracker in Jiangsu Province, China, according to Energy Transfer. The export facility is operated by Energy Transfer under a joint venture with Satellite. The achievement follows the loading of the first VLGC powered by liquefied petroleum gas at Enterprise Products Partners' hydrocarbon terminal on the Houston Ship Channel in December. US Gulf Coast ethane climbed to the highest level in more than 20 weeks Jan. 15, at 25 cents/gal, amid increased demand for ethane as a viable alternative to normal butane and propane for the petrochemical sector. Prior to that, January barrels of LPG had been on an upward trajectory, spurring the demand for ethane. S&P Global Platts assessed January non-LST ethane, reflecting prices at the Enterprise NGL storage and fractionation facility in Mont Belvieu, Texas, at 23.50 cents/gal on Jan. 19. Stripping ethane and propane from the natural gas produced at the wellhead creates two more revenue streams in addition to the dry gas that remains. US exports of NGLs and their byproducts to Asia have flourished in recent years. Producers in key US shale basins where increasing amounts of associated gas are being lifted with oil, including the prolific Permian Basin in West Texas, rely on those outlets for their supplies. For 2021, global NGL supply is expected to retract by 1% compared with 2020 as production curtailments hit the US, according to Platts Analytics. Ultimately, global NGL supply is not expected to return to 2019 annual levels until 2023. At the Orbit facility, the Seri Everest was loaded with more than 911,000 barrels of ethane, the largest single shipment of ethane to date, Energy Transfer said. It is expected to arrive in China in mid-February, the company said. Energy Transfer's Marcus Hook facility in Pennsylvania is also capable of handling VLECs. As for the Very Large Gas Carrier BW Gemini that departed Dec. 13 from Enterprise's terminal, it was loaded with 590,000 barrels of LPG, including cargo and fuel. On Jan. 19, the vessel was in the North Pacific, with a captain's destination set for Japan's port of Chiba, according to cFlow.
Texas lawmakers to weigh using fracking wastewater to replenish aquifers - Deep underneath the ground, fluids travel down and shoot through ancient shale formations, fracturing rock and starting the flow of oil — the essential part of hydraulic fracturing technology that's transformed America’s oil industry. But that’s not all that comes up out of the earth. Salty, contaminated water — held in porous rocks formed hundreds of millions of years ago — is also drawn to the surface during oil production. Before an oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic caused prices to crash in March, Texas wells were producing more than 26 million barrels of the ancient and contaminated water a day, according to an analysis by S&P Global Platts. In the oil patch, figuring out how to dispose of this water “is something that only gets worse,” said Rene Santos, an energy analyst for S&P Global Platts. “Every time (companies) produce, they have to do something with the water.” Usually, it’s later injected back underground, into separate wells — a practice that has been linked to increased seismic activity. Sometimes it’s reused in another fracking well. But a new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency decision allowing Texas to regulate the discharge of the water after it’s treated could be a first step toward new uses of the water — at least that’s what some Texas lawmakers and oil and gas producers hope. The EPA told the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality last week that the state could take charge of the federal government’s responsibilities to regulate discharging so-called "produced water," if the water met certain toxicity standards. For now, oil and gas operators may apply for individual permits from the TCEQ on a case-by-case basis, an agency spokesperson said. For every barrel of oil produced in the Permian Basin of West Texas, an average of six barrels of water come up with it, according to an S&P analysis. State Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, argues that the water could eventually help the state replenish its diminishing water supplies.As chairman of the state Senate Committee on Water and Rural Affairs, he helped produce an interim report ahead of the 2021 legislative session that included such a vision — and now Perry says the recent EPA decision will help get federal regulation out of the way. “This is a water supply that hasn’t been cultivated or tapped,” Perry said. “It’s a sin to waste that resource.” The industry, too, has “a lot of excitement” about turning the water into something of value rather than an expense, said Jason Modglin, president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers. But scientists and industry observers say the idea is a long shot. Produced water contains high amounts of salt, as well as other minerals and toxins in varying amounts depending on the shale formation it comes from, and technology to make the water potable is still expensive.
EPA Grants Biofuel Waivers to Refiners -- The Trump administration granted three oil refineries exemptions from biofuel-blending requirements in a last-minute move, prompting quick rebuke from ethanol and biodiesel producers. Two of the Environmental Protection Agency waivers apply to the 2019 mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard, according data posted online. The agency also approved a previously denied 2018 exemption. Another 65 requests are pending, including 15 for 2020. The names of the refineries weren’t disclosed. Biofuel advocates, including lawmakers, had pushed the Trump administration to hold off on approvals, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to hear arguments in a case testing EPA’s ability to grant them. The latest action puts added pressure on the incoming Biden White House to signal how it will proceed in the fight for share of U.S. gasoline tanks. “This disappointing action further undermines the integrity of the Renewable Fuel Standard program by destroying demand for additional gallons of biofuel,” Kurt Kovarik, vice president for federal affairs at the National Biodiesel Board, said in a statement.
Outgoing Trump Administration Warns of U.S. Economic Disaster if Fracking Banned - A ban on hydraulic fracturing, a key technique used to complete unconventional oil and natural gas wells, could reverse U.S. production growth and lead the country backwards to become a net importer once again by as soon as 2025, the outgoing Trump administration warned in a report issued Thursday. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) outgoing Secretary Dan Brouillette in an 80-page analysis said if the completions technique known as fracking were not allowed to continue, it could sharply fray domestic output. The DOE analysis “suggests natural gas price implications under a hydraulic fracturing ban would be considerable, with an estimated 244% increase from the 2019 level, reaching $8.80/MMBtu by 2025,” Brouilette said. Techniques to extract energy resources from the Lower 48, said Brouilette, “unleashed America’s natural resources and made the United States the world’s largest natural gas and oil producer, while also creating high paying jobs and delivering meaningful consumer savings.” Banning the completions process, which has been used for more than 50 years around the world, “would result in the loss of millions of jobs, price spikes at the gasoline pump and higher electricity costs for all Americans. “Such a ban would eliminate the United States’ status as the top oil and gas producing country and return us to being a net importer of oil and gas by 2025,” he said. “It would weaken America’s geopolitical standing and negatively impact our national security.” Natural gas is an “important partner” for renewables and provides baseload power to backup intermittent resources such as wind and solar, according to the report. Renewable energy technology growth could be “adversely” impacted and in turn potentially impact the U.S. power grid. The DOE detailed a litany of damage to the U.S. economy with a ban on fracking. By 2025, it said, the domestic economy “would have 7.7 million fewer jobs, $1.1 trillion less in gross domestic product, and $950 billion less in labor income.” A recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic also could take longer, according to the analysis. Among other things, there could be a near $2/gallon increase in gasoline prices by 2025 from the 2020 average of $2.18. Average diesel prices also are forecast to increase. Marcellus Shale Coalition President David Spigelmyer, whose members produce natural gas and liquids-rich resources in Appalachia, warned that banning unconventional drilling could have a domino effect on emissions. “Banning hydraulic fracturing would reverse course of American’s ongoing global environmental leadership by increasing greenhouse gas emissions while burdening struggling consumers with higher energy costs,”
President Biden Has Limited Flexibility In Moving Against Oil Industry – Forbes - President-elect Joe Biden enters the White House this week with ambitious plans to tackle climate change and hasten the transition to a low-carbon economy. The economic and political realities of the moment, though, will make it difficult to move too aggressively against an oil and gas industry that continues to supply a majority of the country’s energy. Biden, a centrist Democrat, has been here before. In 2009, he became Vice President to President Barack Obama, an administration that also prioritized sweeping climate legislation, including a cap-and-trade carbon emissions program. Those plans, which would have raised the price of gasoline, heating oil and natural gas, quickly gave way to the economic realities of the time. The country was in the midst of the Great Recession, the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and battling unemployment rates in the double digits. It’s no wonder that cap and trade failed to gain support despite Democratic majorities controlling both chambers of Congress at the time. Indeed, an administration that was highly critical of the practice of hydraulic fracturing of shale deposits coming into the White House ended up overseeing a doubling of U.S. crude production during its tenure. The shale revolution went on to make America the world’s largest producer of oil and gas.The Obama administration eventually had to accept that the booming domestic oil and gas industry was too important to the national economy and employment to dismantle. The shale industry was responsible for roughly 10 percent of the growth in the U.S. economy’s gross domestic product (GDP) from 2010 to 2015, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Obama administration also came to realize the geopolitical benefits of being a major producer — so much so that it wiped out a 40-year old ban on exporting U.S. crude oil. Skyrocketing oil and gas production gave Washington more flexibility in setting foreign policy, too, particularly in dealing with the OPEC cartel and Russia. The economy President-elect Biden inherits on January 20 will look a lot like 2009. America continues to struggle under the Covid-19 pandemic. While nationwide inoculations are underway, it could be a long road back for the economy, and no one knows for sure what the new normal in a post-Covid world will look like. Biden will likely continue to have ambitious climate policy goals. Bold talk on climate is something of a prerequisite to maintain the progressive coalition that helped get him elected. But while the energy policy rhetoric may change significantly under the incoming administration, an outright assault on the oil sector is unlikely. To be sure, there will be a tightening of regulations and restrictions on new leasing, but current gains should be maintained.
Biden administration pauses federal drilling program in climate push (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has temporarily suspended oil and gas permitting on federal lands and waters in the latest of a series of rapid-fire orders aimed at fighting climate change and tamping down the U.S. fossil fuel industry. The order appeared to be a first step in delivering on newly sworn-in Biden’s campaign pledge to permanently ban new drilling on federal acreage. Federal leases account for close to 25% of the nation’s crude oil output, making them a big contributor to energy supply but also to America’s greenhouse gas emissions. Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump had sought to maximize production of oil, gas and coal on federal acreage, and routinely downplayed threats from global warming. The suspension was welcomed by environmentalists but derided by the oil and gas industry, which is struggling to secure a future under a new administration that has vowed to make countering global warming a top priority. The 60-day pause strips Interior Department agencies and bureaus from their authority to issue drilling leases or permits while the administration reviews the legal and policy implications of the federal minerals leasing program, according to a Department of Interior memo. The order does not limit existing operations, it said. Shares of U.S. shale producers with federal lands exposure fell following the news on Thursday. EOG Resources Inc and Cimarex Energy Co closed down 8.6%, Devon Energy Corp fell 7.9% and Occidental Petroleum Corp closed down 6.4% on the New York Stock Exchange. “This is a frack ban,” Anne Bradbury, chief executive of the drilling trade group American Exploration & Production Council, said in an interview. “Even just for 60 days, it’s a really aggressive move.” Many of the largest onshore drilling companies had stockpiled permits here in anticipation of a change in federal policy ahead of Biden's election, insulating them from a ban.
Big U.S. oil drillers have federal permits to mute effect of any Biden ban (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden’s promised ban on new oil and gas drilling on federal lands would take years to shut off production from top shale drillers because they already have stockpiled permits, according to Reuters interviews with executives. But smaller independent oil drillers without the resources of big corporations were more worried about Biden’s vow to toughen regulations and stop issuing new permits on federal lands, part of his sweeping plan to combat climate change and bring the economy to net zero emissions by 2050. Federal lands are the source of about 10% of U.S. oil and gas supply. Fossil fuels produced on federally managed lands and waters contribute nearly 25% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to government estimates, making them an easy target for the administration’s climate agenda. Biden’s pledge would reverse former President Donald Trump’s efforts to maximize drilling and mining on federal property. But it will not end production in those areas overnight. The seven companies that control half the federal supply onshore in the Lower 48 states have leases and permits in hand that could last years. “We have always been very confident that we will continue to develop and drill on federal acreage,” said David Hager, executive chairman of Devon Energy Corp, the biggest oil producer on onshore federal land in the Lower 48 states. “It’s embedded into the rights we have in the leases and we’re doing it the right way.” He said he expected the company’s federal lands permits would last at least four years. Other top producers on federal land include EOG Resources Inc, ExxonMobil Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp , ConocoPhillips, and Mewbourne Oil Company. EOG has said it has at least four years of federal permits. Occidental said last year it had well over 200 federal drilling permits in hand and had requested another roughly 200 permits on New Mexico acreage, where some of the richest reserves lie beneath federally owned property. Ameredev II, which produces about 10,000 barrels of oil per day in New Mexico’s Permian, also has federal drilling permits to last at least four years. Energy consultancy Rystad said it saw stockpiling of federal lands drilling permits in the run-up to the November presidential election, with federal permit requests rising to a 31% share of all permit requests in the major U.S. oilfields from 18% in 2019. Biden’s team did not respond to several requests for comment, and it was unclear when his administration might act on a drilling ban. Most onshore federal drilling happens in Western states like New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming, which get a share of extraction royalties and depend on that revenue.
IN BRIEF: Nearly 900 Western states oil and gas leases draw new legal challenge | Reuters --Following on the heels of a novel win that halted oil and gas leases in Wyoming, environmental and health groups are again taking the Bureau of Land Management to task over an inadequate “carbon budget analysis” for 890 leases in Western states.WildEarth Guardians and Physicians for Social Responsibility on Tuesday accused the BLM of violating the National Environmental Policy Act with March 2019 and December 2020 lease sales in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, arguing that the agency failed to analyze how greenhouse gas emissions resulting from fossil-fuel extraction on the parcels measure against its own assessment of total emissions the country can safely release to limit climate change.To read the full story on Westlaw Today, click here: bit.ly/3iut9RV
Feds could follow Colorado’s lead on regulating methane from oil, gas sites — once again - Colorado has led the way on regulations to rein in emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and now the federal government appears ready to follow suit — again. The series of executive orders that President Joe Biden signed Wednesday, his first day in office, included one to review a Trump administration rule that loosened Obama-era federal methane regulations. The changes, finalized in September, removed oil and natural gas transmission and storage facilities from the rules and scaled back requirements for monitoring emissions from wells and detecting and repairing leaks. The methane regulation is among the Trump administration’s actions that Biden wants agencies to review and likely revise or rescind. He said the goal is to enact rules and policies to address climate change, environmental justice and protect the public health and environment. Federal rules to reduce methane from oil and natural gas operations were modeled after Colorado regulations. In 2014, Colorado approved the first state-level methane regulations in the country and has continued to strengthen its requirements. “President Biden made no secret about his wanting to restore the methane rule. He mentioned it in at least one of the debates.It was a big part of his platform for restoring America’s leadership on methane emissions,” said Dan Grossman, the regional director of the Environmental Defense Fund. Efforts to cut methane emissions have intensified as the effects of climate change have worsened. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is 80 times more potent in the near term than carbon dioxide in trapping heat in the atmosphere. Methane can escape from oil and gas equipment and is often “flared,” or burned as waste in oil production. Methane levels are increasing worldwide, with agriculture and fossil fuels being two of the largest drivers, scientists say. As part of an overhaul of state oil and gas regulations, the state approved rules in 2020 that ban the routine venting and flaring of methane at oil and gas sites and require more monitoring. Clamping down on methane pollution is considered important to meeting statewide greenhouse-gas reduction goals: a 26% decrease from 2005 levels by 2025; 50% by 2020; and 90% by 2050. Critics have questioned whether Colorado’s regulations are strong enough to make the cuts necessary to meet the targets.
Biden's Federal Land Lease Ban To Send Oil Prices Higher: Goldman -Oil stocks tumbled following yesterday's one-two punch of Biden energy news, when first we learned that the Interior Department enacted a 60-day moratorium on issuing oil and gas leases that affects all federal lands, minerals, and waters, which was followed by news that Biden was set to fully suspend the sale of oil and gas leases on federal land, which accounts for about a tenth of U.S. supplies.Yet while E&P companies sold off sharply on the news, one can argue that the decision wasn't exactly a surprise for the drillers themselves, because as the following chart from BofA shows, federal drilling permits spiked into year-end as companies clearly anticipated a ban on drilling on federal lands.But it's not just speculation about what impact on drillers - and especially frackers will be - Biden's intervention will have: an just as important question is what to expect on the price of oil as a result.Well, overnight, Goldman's commodity team said that a lack of urgency from the US government to lift Iranian sanctions and a push for larger fiscal spending support the constructive view on oil and gas prices; at the same time it estimated that a 2 trillion stimulus over 2021-2022 would increase US demand by 200k bpd and stated that delays in a full return of Iran production would support the bullish oil outlook. Goldman's summary, which could say is obvious: "policies to support energy demand but restrict hydrocarbon production (or increase costs of drilling and financing) will prove inflationary in coming years given the still negligible share of transportation demand coming from EVs (and renewables)."In short, just what Putin and the Crown Prince ordered.
DUCs Won’t Save U.S. Oil Production - U.S. oil production has fallen more than 2 million barrels per day since March 2020. Many reasonably expect that DUCs (drilled uncompleted wells) provide a solution to output falling further. They won’t. There are about 5,800 DUCs in the main U.S. tight oil plays. These are already drilled and could be converted into producing wells for the cost of completion which is about half the total well cost. Most DUCs, however, are uncompleted for a reason namely, that their owners don’t believe that their performance will be as good as wells that they chose to complete instead. Even assuming similar performance, the larger problem is that large numbers of DUCs are already being completed and official EIA 914 production remains less than 10.5 mmb/d. North Dakota publishes monthly data on DUCs that can be compared with active, producing wells. DUCs currently account for about 35% of new Bakken producing wells and about 25% of completed wells since March have been DUCs (Figure 1). During the 2015-2016 oil price and production collapse, DUCs in the Bakken reached about 40% of completions. It is, therefore, reasonable to expect that current DUC levels may be close to a maximum. Whether Bakken data applies to other plays is, of course, unknown. More importantly, there are just too few wells being completed to expect U.S. production to maintain 11 mmb/d EIA forecast for 2021. Five key regions of the United States—Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and the offshore Gulf of Mexico—account for 80% of total output. Figure 2 shows incremental new wells and new production for those regions from 2014 through July 2020 (12-month average). At least 400 new wells must be added each month to offset declining legacy production and maintain 11 mmb/d for the U.S. Instead of adding new wells, fewer wells were drilled in each successive month after March 2020. Not surprisingly, incremental monthly production has been falling and that is completely consistent with declining overall production levels. It doesn’t matter whether wells are newly drilled and completed or DUCs—there are simply too few wells being added to maintain present levels of production. The good news is that well completions and rig counts have turned around and are now heading in the right direction. The bad news is that it will take many months before drilling and production equilibrate. How far will production fall? The truth is that no one knows. Oil production is part of a complex system. Its interdependencies and feedback loops make it dynamic and adaptive. There are unresolvable uncertainties. The best approach is to identify and describe the key patterns that characterize present state: rig count, decline rates, lags and leads, completions and incremental production rates. These offer the most probable but only notional projections of those trends. In Figure 3, I show three scenarios based on rig count and I also show EIA’s production forecast for 2021. These should be viewed as trend lines rather than forecasts. In the base case, output begins to decline in April 2021 and decreases to 9.1 mmb/d by September 2021. In the low case the production minimum is estimated at 7.8 mmb/d and in the high case, 9.9 mmb/d. Whatever the magnitude of production decline or its precise timing, it is important to recognize what is coming. The lower-for-longer ruling paradigm has been accurate and useful since the oil-price collapse in 2014. What is happening now is different.
Can Shale Resist The Lure Of Another Output Surge? U.S. shale changed global oil markets. It shook the foundations of OPEC as the one single swing producer group.And last year, it crumbled under the weight of the pandemic that sent oil prices to all-time lows, including a short dip of WTI below zero. Now, shale is getting back on its feet, facing the temptation of production as prices rebound above $50.Wood Mackenzie’s Vice Chair for the Americas, Ed Crooks, called it a siren song in a recent analysis. The shale boom happened because producers were chasing constant growth. It was this chase that catapulted the United States to the spot of the world’s largest oil producer, but it was also this chase that made the pandemic-caused slump in the shale patch quite spectacular.Until about a month ago, most of U.S. shale was unprofitable, so producers stayed put—and probably wondered how they were going to keep paying the debts they’d accumulated while going for broke during the second shale boom. Now, at over $50 a barrel, a lot of shale oil is profitable again, at least according to the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol.But it’s not just him. Reuters earlier this week reported shale drillers have started hedging their future production at the current futures prices—another sign more shale oil is profitable at $53-54 a barrel.Production remains subdued, for now. The national total averaged 11 million barrels daily as of the first week of January, unchanged on the previous week and down 2 million from a year earlier, according to the latest EIA weekly petroleum report. But the call of the siren could prove too tempting to resist.The large producers are sticking to their cautious stance. As Pioneer’s president, Richard Dealy, told The Wall Street Journal last week, there is little motivation for production growth. The world does not seem to need more oil right now, he noted, so there is no reason to ramp up output.The company’s CEO, Scott Sheffield, went further, saying during a webcast earlier this month that he did not expect U.S. shale to return to growth over the next few years.
Base production in North Dakota has fully recovered after a significant reduction --. Falling crude oil demand and prices, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, caused rig counts and drilling activity in North Dakota to decline sharply in 2020. Furthermore, producers delayed deliveries of new wells and shut in or curtailed already producing wells, reducing May 2020 oil production in North Dakota by more than 40% from the peak month of October 2019, as Figure 1 illustrates. After June 2020, crude oil production in North Dakota has been recovering, but it is still about 20% lower than the historical high in October 2019. Although the base production (production from wells more than one year old) has fully recovered, the swing production (production from wells less than a year old) has not because a lower rate of new well completions has resulted in fewer new wells. Both base and swing production recorded significant reductions in the second quarter of 2020. As analyzed in the March 2020 Drilling Productivity Report Supplement, base production was relatively immune to market conditions in the past. For example, it remained almost unchanged in 2015 and 2016 when the rig count collapsed by more than 80%. In contrast, swing production is more sensitive to market conditions. During years past, including 2020, producers reduced swing production by drilling and completing fewer new wells and by curtailing output at some very productive existing newer wells. Table 1 illustrates the number of wells producing for at least one day per month. Well counts are divided into wells less than one year old and wells more than one year old. Additionally, Table 1 shows monthly base and swing production levels.
Washington state nixes methanol plant meant to supply China - (AP) — Officials in Washington state denied a key permit for a large proposed methanol plant Tuesday, saying the project that aims to send the chemical to China to be used in everything from fabrics and contact lenses to iPhones and medical equipment would pump out too much pollution. A significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions and inconsistencies with the Shoreline Management Act were the main reasons the permit was rejected for the project planned on the Columbia River, the state Department of Ecology said in a news release. The $2 billion Northwest Innovation Works plant proposed in Kalama would take natural gas from Canada and convert it into methanol. It would then be shipped to China to make olefins — compounds used in many everyday products. An environmental analysis done by the state agency found that the facility would be one of the largest sources of carbon pollution in Washington, emitting nearly 1 million metric tons a year within the state, and millions of tons more from extracting natural gas, shipping the product to Asia and final uses of the methanol, officials said. “I believe we were left with no other choice than to deny the permit for the Kalama project," Ecology Director Laura Watson said in a written statement. "The known and verifiable emissions from the facility would be extremely large and their effects on Washington’s environment would be significant and detrimental.”
Joe Biden plans to pull Keystone XL pipeline permit on first day in office - President-elect Joe Biden plans to rescind a cross-border permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day in office, according to multiple reports.The move could sound a death knell for the controversial project, which President Trump tried to resurrect early in his term after his predecessor, Barack Obama, opposed it. The phrase “Rescind Keystone XL pipeline permit” appeared on a list of Day One executive actions that Biden’s transition team gave to American stakeholders, according to Canada’s CBC News, which first reported the development on Sunday.The pledge did not appear on a memo that Biden chief of staff Ron Klain released Saturday outlining the administration’s early priorities, but it was included in a presentation that circulated among lobbyists and trade groups in Washington, Politico reported.Biden’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday morning.By canceling the permit, Biden would reverse one of Trump’s first presidential actions and return to the Obama administration’s stance against the pipeline, which would move oil from the Canadian province of Alberta into Nebraska. Obama’s administration reportedly rejected the permit in 2015, saying the project would contradict its efforts to combat climate change. Trump signed an executive order allowing it to proceed in January 2017, but the project got caught up in a court battle that led to the Supreme Court upholding a ruling against it last year.
Biden nixes Keystone XL permit, halts Arctic refuge leasing - President Biden on Wednesday signed a sweeping executive order that revokes a key permit for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, halts oil and gas leasing at a wildlife refuge in Alaska and carries out several other environmental actions. This deals a devastating blow to the approximately 1,200-mile-pipeline that carried oil from Canada to the U.S. and that was opposed by several environmental and indigenous groups. The action reverses a decision on a project championed by President Trump, who first issued a permit allowing it to cross the border during the first months of his presidency. Environmentalists have been critical of the pipeline, particularly because it’s supposed to carry oil made from tar sands, whose production is carbon intensive. Tribes have also expressed opposition, saying that the pipeline would cross onto their lands and violate their treaty rights. Biden, in the executive order, argued that the pipeline "disserves" U.S. national interest. "The United States and the world face a climate crisis. That crisis must be met with action on a scale and at a speed commensurate with the need to avoid setting the world on a dangerous, potentially catastrophic, climate trajectory," the order said. "Leaving the Keystone XL pipeline permit in place would not be consistent with my Administration's economic and climate imperatives. " TC Energy, the company behind the pipeline, released a statement on Wednesday expressing disappointment in the decision, arguing that its pipeline would bolster energy security in North America and provide jobs. The company also said it would “review the decision, assess its implications, and consider its options” but added that the pipeline’s advancement will be suspended. Many Republicans opposed the move, and a group of five GOP senators wrote to Biden on Tuesday urging him to “support the completion and operation” of the pipeline. Biden’s order also places a temporary moratorium on oil and gas leasing activities at the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, coming just one day after the Trump administration issued leases from its first sale. The refuge is home to grizzly bears, polar bears, gray wolves and more than 200 species of birds. It contains land considered sacred by the Gwich’in people. A 2017 tax law requires two lease sales at the refuge by the end of 2024, and one of those occurred at the tail end of the Trump administration, in a manner that critics argued was rushed. Biden, however, opposes oil and gas leasing at the refuge, and pledged to “permanently” protect it on the campaign trail. The temporary moratorium would stop short of a campaign pledge by Biden to ban new permits for oil and gas leasing on public land and in public waters. Asked during a press briefing whether the administration still had that commitment, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said "we do and the leases will be reviewed."
North Dakota officials condemn pipeline permit revocation (AP) — North Dakota Republican Gov. Doug Burgum and the state’s all-GOP congressional delegation want President Joe Biden to reconsider his revocation of the permit for the long-disputed Keystone XL oil pipeline. The 1,700-mile pipeline was planned to carry roughly 800,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the Texas Gulf Coast, passing through Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Burgum says in a statement that “revoking the permit is wrong for the country and has a chilling effect on private-sector investment in much-needed infrastructure projects.” Sen. Kevin Cramer urged Biden to reconsider the pipeline decision, calling it an “early mistake by the president and a nod to far-left environmental extremists.” North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin Kringstad said Biden’s action “adds to the uncertainty of project development in North Dakota.” It also puts in question the fate of the Dakota Access Pipeline that carries oil from the western part of the state to a shipping point in Illinois. The $3.8 billion pipeline crosses beneath the Missouri River, just north of the Standing Rock Sioux reservation. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe sent Biden a letter this week requesting that he instruct the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to stop the pipeline from operating.
Canada scrambles to salvage Keystone XL as Biden prepares to kill troubled pipeline project (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s expected move to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline prompted Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta on Monday to threaten to seek damages as Ottawa made efforts to save the troubled project. Scrapping the project would threaten Canadian jobs and the U.S.-Canadian relationship as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to turn the page on the Donald Trump era, though the idea drew support from environmental groups and progressive U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders. A source told Reuters on Sunday that Biden will cancel a permit for the $8 billion project over concerns about fossil fuels contributing to climate change, dealing a blow to the Canadian energy sector. The news sent shares in Keystone XL owner TC Energy lower on Monday and prompted Alberta Premier Jason Kenney to urge Trudeau to reach out to the incoming Biden administration in the next 48 hours. Biden, a Democrat, is due to take the oath of office on Wednesday. “This is the 11th hour and if this really is the top priority, as it should be, then we need the government of Canada to stand up for Canadian workers, for Canadian jobs, for the Canadian-U.S. relationship, right now,” Kenney told a news conference. He said Alberta had retained legal counsel and believed there was a “very solid” legal basis to seek damages under international free trade agreements if the pipeline is effectively killed by presidential fiat. Alberta’s financial exposure is just over C$1 billion ($783 million), Kenney said, after the province last year invested in the pipeline, also known as KXL.
TC Energy Reacts to Keystone Pipeline Development - TC Energy Corporation has announced that it is disappointed with the expected action to revoke the existing Presidential Permit for the Keystone XL pipeline and said it would directly lead to the layoff of thousands of union workers. The company noted that it will review the decision, assess its implications and consider its options. It added, however, that as a result of the expected revocation of the Presidential Permit, advancement of the project will be suspended. TC Energy said it will cease capitalizing costs, including interest during construction, effective January 20, 2021, and added that it will evaluate the carrying value of its investment in the pipeline. Absent intervening actions, the company said these steps could result in a predominantly non-cash after-tax charge to earnings in the first quarter of this year. Looking forward, TC Energy said it is well positioned to capture significant additional growth opportunities that are expected to arise as the world both consumes more energy and transitions to a less carbon intensive energy mix. “Our base business continues to perform very well and, aside from Keystone XL, we are advancing $25 billion of secured capital projects along with a robust portfolio of other similarly high quality opportunities under development,” François Poirier, TC Energy’s president and chief executive officer, said in a company statement. “These initiatives are expected to generate growth in earnings and cash flow per share and support annual dividend increases of eight to ten percent in 2021 and five to seven percent thereafter,” he added. Commenting on the latest Keystone XL Pipeline development, American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers said, “revoking the Keystone XL pipeline is a significant step backwards both for environmental progress and our economic recovery”. “Pipelines are the safest, most environmentally friendly way to transport energy, and the economy cannot recover at full speed unless we deliver reliable energy from where it is to where it is needed. The Keystone XL Pipeline has been through more than ten years of extensive environmental reviews, and … [the] announcement is a slap in the face to the thousands of union workers who are already a part of this safe and sustainable project,” he added. “This misguided move will hamper America’s economic recovery, undermine North American energy security and strain relations with one of America’s greatest allies,” Sommers continued.
PIPELINES: Keystone XL exec plans 1K job cuts from Biden order — email -- Thursday, January 21, 2021 -- A top Keystone XL pipeline executive told employees yesterday that more than a thousand jobs would be cut in the coming weeks because of President Biden's decision to pull a key permit for the oil project.
TC Energy could shrug off loss of Keystone XL pipeline project - The potential cancellation of the Keystone XL oil pipeline project after U.S. President Joe Biden rescinded a key permit would not necessarily dampen TC Energy Corp.'s appeal to investors, midstream industry experts said. The Canadian pipeline giant has only suspended the 830,000-barrel-per-day, 1,200-mile pipeline project for now. But TC Energy is not expected to reapply for any permits — including a U.S. presidential permit for crossing the international border between the United States and Canada — following Biden's Jan. 20 executive order, which followed through on a campaign promise. Even though Veritas Investment's Darryl McCoubrey estimated TC Energy will record an impairment charge of at least C$1.00 per share, he noted that the company's natural gas and nuclear segments, which account for approximately 90% of its portfolio, stand to benefit enormously. "A loss in its oil business indirectly enhances opportunity in its other, much more important operations," he said in an interview. "I don't get why it's all doom and gloom. I get that the Keystone XL windfall would have been huge — my estimate is you could've added C$10 per share maybe had it gone forward ... but that decision in itself doesn't ruin TC Energy's appeal." Estimates in media reports have put the cost of the Keystone XL project at roughly $8 billion, a figure that could swell with delays and cost overruns. Alberta, which helped cover development costs and which could face financial exposure of more than C$1 billion, might seek damages from the U.S. because of the permit decision, according to Reuters. According to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, a decision to ditch Keystone XL would best serve TC Energy's equity value. "We believe the market will view TC Energy walking away from KXL as the best outcome for the stock, particularly as we think the stock currently reflects little, if any, value for KXL and investors can now focus on the 'utility-like' story," the analysts told clients Jan. 17.
Biden Blocking Keystone Threatens to End Mega Pipelines Era - Joe Biden’s move to block the $9 billion Keystone XL project is the clearest sign yet that constructing a major new pipeline in the U.S. has become an impossible task. The incoming president has pledged to reshape the U.S. energy sector and accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, and the cancellation of the proposed link to Canada’s oil sands will be one of his first big environmental actions. Even before Biden’s inauguration Wednesday, the oil and gas industry was on its back foot when it came to building major new infrastructure. Despite Donald Trump’s pro-fossil-fuel policies, energy companies such as Williams Cos. and Dominion Energy Inc. have been forced to scrap new projects in the face of stiff opposition. “I can’t imagine going to my board and saying, ‘we want to build a new greenfield pipeline’,” Williams Chief Executive Officer Alan Armstrong said in an interview. “I do not think there will be any funding of any big cross-country greenfield pipelines, and I say that because of the amount of money that’s been wasted.” The industry’s retreat is a victory for the environmental movement. Groups that once campaigned under the slogan Keep It In The Ground have increasingly turned their attention to the pipes. Building them in much of the U.S. is a far trickier business than drilling oil and gas wells. That’s due to the numerous federal and state permits that, for the most part, can be more easily litigated. The Trump administration sought to streamline federal permitting, but many projects were dealt a mortal blow in the courts. “No one is going to announce a new pipeline while Joe Biden is the president,” said Katie Bays, managing director at FiscalNote Markets, which tracks policy issues for investors. Pipelines are likely to face a more burdensome approval process under the new administration, according to industry watchers including analysts at Morgan Stanley. Armstrong, whose company operates the Transco gas pipeline that runs from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast, says costs associated with litigation, together with the risk of delays, mean the construction of interstate projects in the U.S. can no longer be justified. He speaks from recent experience. Williams abandoned its Constitution natural gas pipeline in 2020 following years of legal battles with New York over a water permit. Its Northeast Supply Enhancement plan, which would have added pipeline segments in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey to an existing Williams system, was also effectively killed off last year amid opposition from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. In fact, 2020 proved to be an awful year for anyone trying to build a major pipeline. In July, Dominion and its partner Duke Energy Corp. scrapped plans for their $8 billion Atlantic Coast natural gas project along the U.S. East Coast after legal battles, permitting hiccups and ballooning costs. Less than 24 hours later, a U.S. court court ordered the shutdown of the Dakota Access crude oil pipeline -- though the order was later sidelined. In Minnesota, on-the-ground protests from environmental and indigenous activists continue to dog Enbridge Inc.’s proposal to replace its Line 3 crude pipeline, which shuttles crude from Alberta to Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the $6 billion, 303-mile (488-kilometer) Mountain Valley natural gas project -- which along with Line 3 are the last remaining mega pipeline projects still in development in the U.S. -- is running into regulatory hurdles after years of cost overruns and delays. Shares of Equitrans Midstream Corp., which is constructing the pipeline between West Virginia and southern Virginia, plunged 9.9% Tuesday after a meeting of federal regulators in Washington failed to advance the project.
Oil giant splits from powerful lobbying group over climate change - The American Petroleum Institute, the nation's largest and most powerful oil lobby, is losing one of its biggest members over a disagreement about addressing the climate crisis.France's Total announced Friday it is quitting the API because of the lobby's stances on regulation and carbon pricing as well as its support for politicians who oppose the Paris climate agreement. The move makes Total the first major oil company to leave the API because of the climate crisis. The exit underscores the divide in the oil industry over how to respond to climate change. Top European oil companies including Total and BP have made more aggressive promises to slash carbon emissions and invest in clean energy than ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron and other US firms. The move also comes amid a broader reckoning in Corporate America over political contributions following the insurrection at the US Capitol. "This is a serious blow for API, whose influence largely stems from its claim to be the voice of the entire oil and gas industry," Andrew Logan, director of oil and gas at sustainability nonprofit Ceres, said in a statement. He added the split is "likely to mark the beginning of an exodus from the trade group."Total has helped lead the industry response to the climate crisis. Last year, Total announced agoal to get to net-zero emissions by 2050. Importantly, that goal included the so-called scope 3 emissions from the products it sells, namely gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. For major oil-and-gas companies, scope 3 can comprise as much as 85% of total emissions, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Halliburton reports better-than-expected earnings on big North America revenue jump -- Halliburton reported on Tuesday quarterly results that topped analysts' expectations amid strong revenue from its North America business. The oilfield services company posted a profit of 18 cents per share on revenue of $3.24 billion for the fourth quarter. Analysts expected earnings per share of 15 cents on revenue of $3.21 billion, according to Refinitiv. Shares of Halliburton rose as much as 2.9% on the back of the news. Around noon ET, however, they were down 1.3%. The company's North America revenue grew by 26% to $1.4 billion when compared with the previous quarter due to increased drilling activity in the region. That increase offset lackluster growth from Halliburton's international markets. CEO Jeff Miller said in a statement he was "optimistic about the activity momentum" in North America, adding he expects international drilling to recover later this year. However, the company's adjusted operating income for 2020 fell to $1.4 billion from $2.1 billion a year earlier. Christopher Voie, an analyst at Wells Fargo, said Halliburton could face some headwinds as its valuation appears to be balanced moving forward. Halliburton shares have fallen more than 14% over the past year. However, they have rallied 68% in the past three months as oil prices surge.
U.S. and Canada underestimating climate risk from abandoned oil and gas wells: study (Reuters) - Methane leaking out of the more than 4 million abandoned oil and gas wells in the United States and Canada is a far greater contributor to climate change than government estimates suggest, researchers from McGill University said on Wednesday. Canada has underestimated methane emissions from its abandoned wells by as much as 150%, while official U.S. estimates are about 20% below actual levels, the study, published in Environmental Science and Technology, found. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Environment and Climate Change Canada did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the study. More than a century of oil and gas drilling has left behind millions of abandoned wells around the globe, posing a serious threat here to the climate that governments are only starting to understand, according to a Reuters special report last year. Methane has more than 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide in its first 20 years in the atmosphere. In 2019, methane emissions from abandoned wells were included for the first time in U.S. and Canadian greenhouse gas inventories submitted to the United Nations. But the McGill study found there are about 500,000 wells in the United States that are undocumented along with about 60,000 in Canada. It also found that the EPA and ECCC had come up with emissions estimates that were far too low - a conclusion the researchers said was based on their own analysis of emissions levels from different types of abandoned wells in seven U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Emissions measurements were also not available from major oil and gas-producing states and provinces like Texas and Alberta, adding to uncertainty around the official data, the study said. The study was co-authored by McGill professor Mary Kang, who in 2014 was the first to measure methane emissions from old drilling sites in Pennsylvania.
Western Canada's crude oil supplies to reach record highs in 2021 - Western Canada’s crude oil production, like in many other regions of the world during the spring of 2020, had to pull back sharply in response to the price and demand chaos brought about by COVID-19. By the end of 2020, oil production almost everywhere remained much lower or was being carefully managed to avoid creating another supply glut. In contrast, production in Western Canada has almost fully rebounded, and is being primed to increase to what could be all-time highs this year. With Alberta’s oil sands producers renewing their role as the long-standing driver of oil supply growth and the recent suspension of production limits in the province, the stage is set for us to review the most recent oil supply developments and future growth prospects. Crude oil production in Western Canada has been a favorite topic of the RBN blogosphere in the past year — sometimes for less-than-pleasant reasons. We described what was happening to supplies from Alberta’s oil sands in our two-part Rock Bottom series last March and April, when COVID was rocking the oil world. Those blogs examined the ultra-low pricing of the heavy oil price benchmark, Western Canada Select (WCS), and how the low prices were driving widespread shut-ins at major oil sands production sites. After prices began to recover, prompting some gains in oil sands production, we updated you with a four-part, late-summer series (Never Say Goodbye) on what that supply recovery meant for utilization of Canada’s oil export pipelines. That was topped off in early November with the one-off blog Livin’ on a Prayer, which described the suspension of nearly two years of oil production limits that had been imposed by the province of Alberta since January 2019.The start of a new year gives us a perfect opportunity to both look back at how Western Canada oil supplies evolved over the course of (most of) 2020 and look ahead at what might happen in 2021. The production trends certainly have been much more positive since last spring, with combined oil supplies from Canada’s four Western provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) recovering to 4.24 MMb/d as of November 2020 (dashed black box in left graph in Figure 1), the last month of reported data. This is only 139 Mb/d short of the all-time monthly high of 4.8 MMb/d (dashed pink box) set in December 2019 and a staggering 883 Mb/d above the COVID-induced low of 3.36 MMb/d in May 2020 (dashed red box).
Washington state nixes methanol plant meant to supply China - (AP) — Officials in Washington state denied a key permit for a large proposed methanol plant Tuesday, saying the project that aims to send the chemical to China to be used in everything from fabrics and contact lenses to iPhones and medical equipment would pump out too much pollution. A significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions and inconsistencies with the Shoreline Management Act were the main reasons the permit was rejected for the project planned on the Columbia River, the state Department of Ecology said in a news release. The $2 billion Northwest Innovation Works plant proposed in Kalama would take natural gas from Canada and convert it into methanol. It would then be shipped to China to make olefins — compounds used in many everyday products. An environmental analysis done by the state agency found that the facility would be one of the largest sources of carbon pollution in Washington, emitting nearly 1 million metric tons a year within the state, and millions of tons more from extracting natural gas, shipping the product to Asia and final uses of the methanol, officials said. “I believe we were left with no other choice than to deny the permit for the Kalama project,” Ecology Director Laura Watson said in a written statement. “The known and verifiable emissions from the facility would be extremely large and their effects on Washington’s environment would be significant and detrimental.” The Department of Ecology last year had demanded additional environmental analysis, saying after five years of planning, its backers had failed to provide enough information about the greenhouse gas emissions and how they would be offset. The company has 21 days to appeal the permit decision. “While we are disappointed by this ruling and evaluating our options for an immediate appeal, we feel confident that science and reason will prevail,” The company is backed by the Chinese government and has said the project will create 1,000 jobs and generate up to $40 million in annual tax revenue. The company also has said it would offset any emissions produced directly or indirectly in Washington state.
China's shift from coal helped push natural gas prices to a peak, Eurasia Group - China's shift from coal to gas is a "big overlooked factor" in record high natural gas prices, according to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia said millions of households in China were estimated to have moved from coal to natural gas for heating their homes in 2020. The majority of those transitions happened in the last quarter of the year, just before winter arrived, he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday. Natural gas prices in Asia fell to a record low in the second quarter of last year as the coronavirus crisis spread, but they have surged more than 1,000% since July. According to S&P Global Platts, the benchmark Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM) spot price for liquefied natural gas in February reached a record high of $32.49 MMBtu last week. Much of the price surge has been attributed to extremely cold weather in North Asia, which caused natural gas demand for heating to soar. But Gloystein said new demand from China also likely drove prices to record highs. "We think this is a big overlooked factor," he said. "Sure, it's been cold across the northern hemisphere and there've even been some supply outages, but what happened in China last year is – there are estimates that more than 10 million households were moved from heating using coal … to using natural gas." By some estimates, that's the equivalent of moving all of Australia's households to another fuel in one year, according to Gloystein. "Then it did get really cold, and suddenly they had to serve all this new demand," Gloystein said. Utilities and energy companies did not have enough storage to prepare for such a big increase in demand, he said. As a result, demand outstripped supply and drove prices to a record high. Gloystein said companies usually build up storage during the summer and use it up in the winter, topping up as needed. This time, however, China suddenly had to purchase more gas for new customers at "literally whatever price, and no one was prepared for that in the market." Still, prices are unlikely to remain high for long. "We've heard single cargos indeed sell in the high $30s, I heard one at $39 [per million British thermal units]," said Gloystein. That level seems like the "high mark" for prices and the peak, he said. The jump in prices has been "pretty extreme," but won't last much longer as the cold season is ending and demand for heating will fall, he explained. "At some point, of course, it will get a little bit warmer," he said. "Prices for February and March will probably come down because … the winter will end for sure."
Why Natural Gas Prices Are Set To Go Higher - Winter temperatures below seasonal norms in the northern hemisphere have created a rally in natural gas prices from Asia to Europe. The spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in north Asia jumped to record highs last week, while the key price marker in Europe, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied to the highest in more than two years. This winter season, a rebound in Asian natural gas demand, supply issues at major LNG exporters, logistics issues at the Panama Channel, soaring tanker rates, and last but not least, the cold snap from Madrid to Tokyo, are pushing gas prices higher. Even when temperatures return to seasonal norms in coming weeks and the Polar Vortex-induced cold spells in Europe end, natural gas prices will continue to be supported through the spring and summer, as buyers would look to restock, analysts say. In just two months, the global natural gas market turned from an oversupplied or a finely balanced market at best, into a tightening market, leading to hikes in prices from Asia to Europe. The much higher prices in Asia and Europe than the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will incentivize U.S. LNG spot sales to those markets and the maximizing of U.S. liquefaction capacity, according to analysts. Spot LNG prices in Asia have staged an impressive rally over the past two months and have now soared 18 times from April 2020 lows—and the surge is obliterating even the recent rally in Bitcoin prices. A perfect storm of unusually cold winter in north Asia, outages at major LNG exporters, and logistical and shipping constraints drove the price of Asia’s LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), to the highest on record last week, soaring over $30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the first time. In Spain, home of one of Europe’s biggest terminals, LNG prices also surged amid an unusual cold snap in the country, which brought a rare snowfall in Madrid. The lower-than-normal temperatures in many parts of Europe are driving higher gas withdrawals than usual, setting the stage for higher-than-expected demand through the spring and summer for replenishing stocks. Goldman Sachs expects a “perfect bullish storm” for natural gas prices this year, and raised its forecasts for the prices at the European benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), to $8.30/MMBtu for the rest of this winter, from $6.65/MMBtu expected earlier. Goldman also lifted its spot Asia LNG price outlook to $14.30/MMBtu from $12.65/MMBtu. “The current cold spell in the northern hemisphere is paving the way for a tighter global gas market throughout the year,” Wood Mackenzie said last week in its 2021 gas market outlook.
Shale Driller Stuns Bondholders as Argentina Runs Out of Dollars --In the 99 years since it was founded to pump the oil fields of Patagonia, Argentine energy driller YPF SA has been whipsawed by countless booms and busts. If global oil markets weren’t collapsing, it seemed, then Argentina was mired in a debt crisis that was wreaking havoc on the whole nation’s finances. Never, though, had the company been pushed into a large-scale default of any kind. Until, it would appear, now. Word of this came in an odd way: Officials at state-run YPF sent a press release in the dead of night laying out a plan to saddle creditors with losses in a debt exchange. Implicit in its statement was a threat that traders immediately understood -- failure to reach a restructuring deal could lead to a flat-out suspension of debt payments -- and they began frantically unloading the shale driller’s bonds the next morning. Today, some two weeks later, the securities trade as low as 56 cents on the dollar. Creditors, including BlackRock Inc. and Howard Marks’s Oaktree Capital Group, are gearing up for bare-knuckled negotiations just four months after ironing out a restructuring deal with the government that marked the country’s third sovereign default this century alone. YPF’s downfall underscores just how hard the pandemic has hammered both the global oil industry and the perennially hobbled Argentine economy. Dollars are now so scarce in Buenos Aires that the central bank refused to let YPF buy the full amount it needed to pay notes coming due in March. That was the immediate cause of the restructuring announcement. A longer view reveals a steady decline in the company’s finances since the government re-nationalized it in 2012 and forced it to swell payrolls, artificially hold down domestic fuel prices and skimp on investments, leading to four straight years of oil-and-gas output declines. YPF must now reach a deal with creditors to get its finances in order to boost investment in the gas-rich Vaca Muerta shale formation in Patagonia.
U.S still important in the oil market, even if Biden is less vocal than Trump: UAE energy minister - The U.S. will always play an important role in global energy markets, even though President-elect Joe Biden is likely to be less vocal than President Donald Trump about oil, the UAE's energy minister told CNBC ahead of Inauguration Day. "The United States of America is a major player now … with its production, with the fact that this industry that has been developed through shale oil and gas has created lots of jobs and created an economy by itself," said Suhail al-Mazrouei. That won't change under a new U.S. president who is expected to focus more on renewable energy and less on oil, he said. Whether President Biden and the new administration [will] be vocal on Twitter or not … the role of the United States will be always important. President Trump used to post on Twitter about crude oil and even communicated with OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia during the oil price war last year. Biden is likely to take a different approach, but al-Mazrouei said the U.S.'s leading role in energy markets is likely to remain. "Whether President Biden and the new administration [will] be vocal on Twitter or not … the role of the United States will be always important," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble on Tuesday as part of the virtual Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum. Separately, the UAE energy minister said he's "optimistic" that the oil market will recover before OPEC+ cuts expire in April 2022. The oil-producing group and its allies in April reached an agreement to cut a historic 9.7 million barrels per day in an effort to support crude prices after the coronavirus pandemic destroyed demand. The cuts will taper gradually until April 2022, when the deal will expire. In view of the continuing global health crisis, the alliance in December agreed to raise production by 500,000 barrels per day instead of the initial 2 million bpd. This month, OPEC+ agreed to hold output largely steady, while Saudi Arabia announced an additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March. South Belridge Oil Field is the fourth-largest oil field in California and one of the most productive in the U.S. David McNew | Getty Images Al-Mazrouei said there are still many barrels of oil in storage and the market is not balanced yet. "We continue drawing down on the inventories until we reach some reasonable levels, and hopefully that will be done by … the timeframe that we set, which is April 2022," he said. "I'm optimistic that we would reach it before [that]," he added. "But let's say, even if it takes us … to that date, then I think that will take us to balance."
IEA cuts 2021 oil demand outlook as new Covid lockdowns weigh on fuel sales— The International Energy Agency on Tuesday cut its 2021 global oil demand forecast, citing soaring Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdown measures that will further limit mobility. The IEA said it now expects world oil demand to recover by 5.5 million barrels per day to 96.6 million this year. That reflects a downward revision of 0.3 million barrels from last month's assessment and follows an unprecedented collapse of 8.8 million barrels per day last year as the coronavirus pandemic battered global oil markets. The IEA's latest oil market report comes as countries continue to implement strict public health measures in an attempt to curb virus spread, with lockdowns imposed in Europe and parts of China. The Paris-based energy agency said oil demand growth was projected to fall slightly during the first three months of the year in the wake of tougher government plans that call for additional travel restrictions. This is expected to curb worldwide mobility once again, prompting the IEA to trim its first-quarter forecast for oil demand growth to 94.1 million barrels per day. That would see oil demand return to near year-ago levels and reflects a downward revision of 0.6 million barrels from December's oil market report. "The global vaccine roll-out is putting fundamentals on a stronger trajectory for the year, with both supply and demand shifting back into growth mode following 2020's unprecedented collapse," the IEA said in its closely-watched report. "But it will take more time for oil demand to recover fully as renewed lockdowns in a number of countries weigh on fuel sales," it added. Oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, supported by optimism over Covid vaccine rollouts and a surprise oil production cut from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia. However, the relatively slow pace of inoculations has raised doubts over how soon economies can recover. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $55.26 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up more than 0.9%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $52.51, around 0.3% higher. Both benchmarks fell more than 2.2% in the previous session, notching their worst daily performance since Dec. 21.
OPEC chief pledges to deepen ties with new administration even as Biden calls for climate action— Oil-producing group OPEC will continue to strengthen its relationship with the U.S. energy industry under Joe Biden's new administration, the oil cartel's Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo told CNBC on Tuesday. It comes despite the Democratic leader's stated commitment to fight climate change and focus on renewable energy. Barkindo congratulated Biden for his upcoming inauguration during a virtual panel hosted by the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum, and said: "We continue to deepen this relationship, which we found mutually beneficial to all of us." "And we intend to continue along this fashion going forward and the administration of President Biden," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble in an exclusive interview. OPEC leaders were known to have at times communicated with outgoing President Donald Trump, who was particularly vocal and active about the oil markets and what he believed oil-producing countries should do to alter crude prices. Biden's likely change in approach — as well as his focus on investment in non-oil energy sources — have reportedly unsettled some in the 13-member oil-producing group. The president-elect's potential return to the Iran nuclear deal, which could bring millions of barrels of new oil onto the market, has also raised concerns. The OPEC chief has been diplomatic when it comes to discussing U.S. presidents, but some in the organization are wary of strains with Biden, according to sources cited by Reuters. Asked if he had been in touch with Biden yet, Barkindo replied: "No, not at all." "We believe that we have established very mutually beneficial productive relationships with the industry in the United States. And I think we have no option but to continue to strengthen this relationship under President Biden," he added. Dan Yergin, a longtime oil industry expert and founder of IHS Markit, said during the same panel that Biden's biggest impact on the oil industry would be his commitment to climate change action. "I think he is going to step on the gas on climate," Yergin said. He expects the administration to provide "incentives for electric vehicles ... For solar, wind, and more regulations (for the oil industry) across the board." Biden has named climate change as one of the four biggest crises facing the U.S. and plans to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord on his first day in office. Trump withdrew from the climate deal in 2017. Looking ahead, global trends surrounding energy and climate may be worrying OPEC member states far more than whoever is in the White House. "It is extremely important to understand one thing," Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said during the panel. "The share of oil in the global energy markets will decline. And the speed of this decline will be determined by the pace of energy transitions." "The political position of the U.S. will give unmistakable signals to investors around the world," he added.
Oil's supply-led rally peters out as virus cases surge - Oil prices on Monday fell further from 11-month highs touched last week, ending a rally that started at end-October on production cuts and strong Chinese demand, with the market's outlook questioned as coronavirus infections rise. Brent crude fell 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $54.79 a barrel by 0622 GMT, after dropping 2.3% on Friday. U.S. oil was down by 21 cents, or 0.4%, at $52.15 a barrel, having declined 2.3% in the previous trading session. The benchmarks had rallied in recent weeks, buoyed by the start of Covid-19 vaccine rollouts and a surprise cut of crude output by the world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. Surging new infections throughout the world, however, have raised doubts about how long demand would hold up. U.S. drillers added further pressure by putting more oil and natural gas rigs to work for an eighth consecutive week last week because rising prices have made production more profitable. Still, the number of operating rigs is less than half of the level of a year ago. Still, U.S. drillers "have indicated they will continue to keep their spending under control," ANZ Research said in a note. "The economics also don't favor a surge in drilling, with half of the industry still uneconomical." U.S. shale producers have quickly responded to market gains in recent years, winning market share as Saudi Arabia and other major producers such as Russia have cut production in an attempt to support global oil and gas prices. Shale companies are also taking advantage of market gains by locking in prices for future sales, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters at the end of last week. In China, where new Covid-19 infections have been rising, more than 28 million people are in lockdown as Beijing tries to avoid a resurgence of the coronavirus in the country where it was first discovered.
WTI Slides After Surprise Crude Build -- Oil prices gave back a lot of their early gains today as chatter about the US stimulus plan suggested its not ponies and unicorns for all after all and worries about Chinese demand weighed. WTI slipped back below $53 briefly. The U.S. “is still the biggest market in the world and it hasn’t recovered all the demand loss,”said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. In the near-term, additional lockdown measures in China are weighing on the outlook as “Chinese demand has been one of the big drivers of improved oil fundamentals.”For now, all eyes are back on inventories to see if the seasonal slowdown is accelerating surging product stocks. API:
- Crude +2.562mm (-2.5mm exp)
- Cushing -4.285mm
- Gasoline +1.129mm
- Distillates +816k
Crude inventory unexpectedly rose last week (+2.5mm vs -2.5mm exp) as product stocks rose for the 3rd straight week...WTI hovered just above $53 ahead of the API data and fell back below on the surprise crude build...
Oil Dips on Demand Pessimism -- Oil dipped toward $53 a barrel as pessimism over the short-term demand outlook in the world’s two largest economies was partially offset by more weakness in the dollar. Futures in New York headed for the first daily drop this week after the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. crude inventories swelled by 2.56 million barrels last week and gasoline and distillates stockpiles also increased, according to people familiar with the data. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg have forecast a drop in the inventories before the official data. The API snapshot comes amid signs global fuel consumption is set to take another hit as the rapidly spreading coronavirus spurs more stay-at-home orders and travel curbs. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its demand estimates for China as lockdowns spread ahead of the Lunar New Year travel rush. Despite the worsening short-term consumption outlook, crude is still trading near the highest level in almost a year. Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts and a weak dollar, which boosts the appeal of commodities that are priced in the currency, have helped prevent declines. Investors are also optimistic that the administration of President Joe Biden will unleash a major effort to revive growth and rein in the spread of the virus in the U.S. ”The big-picture elements of festering Covid-19, spread of vaccinations, the change of administration in the U.S. and hopes for fresh stimulus have been factored in for the time being,” said Vandana Hari, founder of consulting firm Vanda Insights in Singapore. There’s unlikely to be any major price shocks from the new U.S. administration over the next few days, she said.
Oil rise on hopes of U.S. stimulus and crude stocks drawdown - Oil prices rose on Wednesday, adding to solid gains overnight, on expectations the incoming U.S. administration will go ahead with massive stimulus spending that would boost fuel demand and draw down crude stocks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 37 cents, or 0.7%, to $53.35 a barrel at 0427 GMT, building on a 1.2% rise on Tuesday. Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $56.25 a barrel, adding to a 2.1% gain on Tuesday. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen urged lawmakers on Tuesday to "act big" on pandemic relief spending, reinforcing hopes of massive spending to boost growth. "Certainly the expectation is that will support better growth and better demand in the U.S.," said National Australia Bank's head of commodity research, Lachlan Shaw. However, the market remains concerned about near-term oil demand as the International Energy Agency cut its outlook for first-quarter oil demand by 580,000 barrels per day, due to tight lockdowns and border closures to stop soaring Covid-19 infections. China's capital Beijing on Wednesday announced stricter Covid-19 control measures and will shut down a subway station after the city reported its biggest daily jump in new Covid-19 cases in more than three weeks. The country is experiencing its most severe Covid-19 outbreak since March 2020 ahead of the key Lunar New Year holiday season. More than 20 provincial-level regions have asked people to stay put during the holiday. Germany on Tuesday extended a lockdown for most shops and schools for another two weeks, to Feb. 14. Traders will be watching out for U.S. crude and products inventory data due from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday and from the Energy Information Administration on Friday. Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude stocks fell by 300,000 barrels in the week to Jan. 15, but expect gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.0 million barrels. Distillate inventories, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, were seen up by 800,000 bbl.
Oil Prices Rise Despite Consumption Concerns -- Oil pared a rally late in the trading session as concerns over lackluster consumption clouded optimism around the likelihood of additional U.S. stimulus. Futures closed less than 1% higher in New York on Wednesday. Investors are focusing on Washington with U.S. President Joe Biden taking office. Biden has asked lawmakers to pass a $1.9 trillion virus aid package, which could support crude consumption. Still, fuel use is expected to take another hit as new virus outbreaks in China add to a wave of infections in Europe and other parts of the world. The U.S. “is still the biggest market in the world and it hasn’t recovered all the demand loss,” said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. In the nearterm, additional lockdown measures in China are weighing on the outlook as “Chinese demand has been one of the big drivers of improved oil fundamentals.” Despite the day-to-day fluctuations in headline crude prices, U.S. crude’s closest contract is the most expensive versus those for six months out in about a year. Key Brent spreads are also in what is known as backwardation, an indication of tight supply. Crude has held near $53 a barrel in New York with the nation working to roll out vaccinations as it struggles to contain the pandemic. Still, prices remain supported by the OPEC+ alliance’s continued production curbs. The “U.S. inauguration will tilt oil supply risks in a bearish direction, but Saudi determination to support markets holds sway for now,” said Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitical risk analyst at S&P Global Platts. “OPEC+ production cuts are markets’ most supportive factor at current prices and now appear to be running ahead of coronavirus-related demand uncertainty.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery, which expires Wednesday, gained 26 cents to settle at $53.24 a barrel. The March contract rose 33 cents to settle at $53.31 a barrel. Brent for March settlement added 18 cents to end the session at $56.08 a barrel. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index weakened for a third session, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the currency Meanwhile, Chinese imports of U.S. and Russian crude last month were at similar levels to November, while purchases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq fell, according to customs data released Wednesday. Imports from Iran almost doubled. In the U.S, crude inventories are expected to have declined last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. The American Petroleum Institute will report its tally later Wednesday ahead of U.S. government storage figures at the end of the week.
Oil steadies after unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories that revived pandemic-related fuel demand concerns, while U.S. stimulus hopes buoyed prices. Brent crude futures rose 2 cents to settle at $56.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 18 cents to settle at $53.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks rose over the past two days on expectations of massive COVID-19 relief spending under new U.S. President Joe Biden. Late Wednesday, industry data showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose 2.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 1.2 million-barrel draw. [API/S] Official inventory data has been delayed by two days to Friday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and Inauguration Day. "We are on pause until we get the inventory report," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "The market is waiting to see what we're going to see in inventories tomorrow and stimulus down the road." Elsewhere, compliance with a deal to cut output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies fell in December from November. Compliance reached 99% last month, two sources told Reuters. Meanwhile, rising coronavirus cases in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, weighed on prices. Beijing plans to impose strict virus testing requirements during the Lunar New Year holiday season, when tens of millions of people are expected to travel, as it battles the worst wave of new infections since March 2020. The commercial hub of Shanghai reported its first locally transmitted cases in two months on Thursday.
Oil prices fall as China's surging COVID-19 cases trigger clampdowns - Oil prices dropped on Friday, retreating further from 11-month highs hit last week, weighed down by worries that new pandemic restrictions in China will curb fuel demand in the world's biggest oil importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 53 cents, or 1%, to $52.60 a barrel at 0445 GMT, after slipping 18 cents on Thursday. Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $55.65 a barrel, erasing a 2 cent gain on Thursday. Recovering fuel demand in China underpinned market gains late last year while the United States and Europe lagged, but that source of support is fading as a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases has sparked new restrictions to contain the spread. "Indeed, investors are struggling to see through short-term pain for long-term gain heading into the weekend as COVID case counts in China are the most significant demand concern for traders," Axi chief market strategist Stephen Innes said in a note. The commercial hub of Shanghai reported its first locally transmitted cases in two months on Thursday, and Beijing is urging people not to travel during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, when tens of millions of urban workers typically head back to their villages. A seasonal boost to China's gasoline demand that is typically seen during the New Year holidays will be moderated by the tightened restrictions this year, consultancy FGE said in a note. "We now have some data on vaccine rollouts, which show that acceptability is a bit on the low side, so pace of implementation may be slow... There may well be a bearish momentum developing (in oil markets)," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta. The market is awaiting official oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Friday, after industry data on Wednesday showed a surprise 2.6 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories last week compared with analysts' forecasts for a 1.2 million barrel draw.
WTI Extends Losses After Surprise Crude Build - Oil prices have tumbled since API's surprise crude build, but stimulus hopes in the US continue to battle record COVID case/death headlines in the bull/bear battle for crude. The Covid-19 situation “is keeping the oil market heeled, unable to take the next leg higher,” However, this morning has seen a ramp from the low $51s as Biden's Executive Orders restraining new drilling sparked bullish calls from Goldman. DOE:
- Crude +4.352mm (-2.5mm exp)
- Cushing -4.727mm
- Gasoline -259k
- Distillates +457k
DOE confirms API's reporting with the first crude build of the year (but a major draw at Cushing, which is central to WTI pricing), Graphics Source: Bloomberg
Oil falls on China's COVID-19 cases, high crude build (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Friday, weighed down by a build in U.S. crude inventories and worries that new pandemic restrictions in China will curb fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer. Brent crude futures fell 69 cents to settle at $55.41 a barrel, for a 0.4% change on the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 86 cents, or 1.6%, settling at $52.27, nearly unchanged from the beginning of the week. Overall U.S. crude inventories surprisingly rose by 4.4 million barrels in the most recent week, versus expectations for a draw of 1.2 million barrels. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a ninth week in a row amid higher energy prices over the past few months, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday, but the overall count is still 52% below this time last year. Recovering fuel demand in China underpinned market gains late last year while the United States and Europe lagged, but that source of support is fading as a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases has sparked new restrictions. Travel on U.S. roads fell 11% in November, a steeper decline over October road use as coronavirus cases increased, the U.S. Transportation Department said Friday. “The pandemic seems to continue to expand into a second wave in China, with infections rising by the day and reaching again different regions such as Shanghai,” said Rystad Energy oil markets analyst Louise Dickson.U.S. crude inventory data showed signs of strength in domestic product demand.While U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week, refineries hiked output to their highest capacity usage since March and demand for gasoline and diesel increased week on week. “Crude oil exports did fall quite dramatically, which is the main reason for a decent build overall in crude stocks,”
Pair Of Iranian Oil Tankers Intercepted In Red Sea: Syrian PM - On Sunday Syria’s Prime Minister Hussein Arnous announced that in total seven Iranian oil tankers have been intercepted en route to the country while they were in the Red Sea to date. This includes two which he said were the latest to be detained. This comes amid severe shortages hitting the sanctions-choked as the US continues its economic war. According to Reuters: The shortages worsened after seven oil tankers on their way to Syria were intercepted in "terrorist attacks" with two of the vessels delayed for over a month in the Red Sea before loading, Arnous was quoted as saying in state media without elaborating. No details were given as to the timeline of the tanker intercepts or who was exactly behind it, but the strong suggestion was that the 'targeting' was due to US sanctions enforcement. "Prime Minister Hussein Arnous did not specify how Syria would secure extra supplies but said they had already imported 1.2 million tons of Iranian crude oil that cost along with petroleum products in the last six months around $820 million," Reuters continued. Prior to American forces and Syrian Kurdish proxy militias occupying Syria oil and gas fields in Deir Ezzor, Syria was largely energy independent - having just enough to cover its domestic needs. But over the last couple years miles-long lines have become the "norm" outside gas stations due to the extreme shortages. "We have become dependent on imported oil and we have used up foreign currency in large amounts to pay for petroleum products," PM Arnous said in a speech to Parliament addressing the crisis.
Dubai, Pandemic Party Haven, Faces Its Biggest Surge - - Masks off the minute you step inside. Bars packed and pulsing like it’s 2019. Social media stars waving bottles of champagne. DJs spinning party tunes through multi-hour brunches.Since becoming one of the world's first destinations to open up for tourism, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has promoted itself as the ideal pandemic vacation spot. It cannot afford otherwise, analysts say, as the virus shakes the foundations of the city-state's economy.With its cavernous malls, frenetic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai was built on the promise of globalization, drawing largely from the aviation, hospitality and retail sectors — all hard hit by the virus.Now reality is catching up to the big-dreaming emirate. With peak tourism season in full swing, coronavirus infections are surging to unprecedented heights. Daily case counts have nearly tripled in the past month, forcing Britain to slam shut its travel corridor with Dubai last week. But in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city won't lock down. “Dubai's economy is a house of cards," said Matthew Page, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Its competitive advantage is being a place where rules don't apply."While most countries banned tourists from the U.K. over fears of the fast-spreading virus variant found there, Dubai, home to some 240,000 British expats, kept its doors open for the holidays. Emirates flew five daily flights to London’s Heathrow Airport.Within days, the new virus strain had arrived in the emirates, but that didn't stop reality TV and soccer stars from fleeing Britain's lockdown and wintry weather for Dubai’s bars and beaches — without taking a coronavirus test before boarding. Scenes of pre-pandemic revelry were splattered across British tabloids. Facing backlash, Instagram influencers spotted at raucous yacht parties were quick to proclaim their travel “essential.” Dubai was glad of the influx. Hotel occupancy rates surged to 71% in December, according to data provider STR. The London-Dubai air route ranked busiest in the world over the first week of January, said OAG, an aviation data analysis firm. “People have had enough of this pandemic already,” said Iris Sabellano from Dubai's Al Arabi Travel Agency, adding that many of her clients have been forced to quarantine after testing positive for the virus on arrival or before departure. Travelers coming from a select list of countries don't need to get tests before their trips but all must at Dubai's airport. “With vaccines coming out, they feel it's not the end of the world, they're not going to die," she said. For those who do die of COVID-19, long-haul airline Emirates offers to pay $1,800 to help cover funeral costs.
Israeli human rights organization declares Israel an apartheid state -B’Tselem, one of Israel’s foremost human rights organisations, has issued a report stating that Israel is not a democracy but an “apartheid regime” that enforces Jewish supremacy over the Palestinians in all the land it controls. It confirms not only what critics of Israel’s brutal suppression of the Palestinians have long been saying, but also the historic bankruptcy and reactionary culmination of the Zionist project and all such nationalist programs. In the 1967 War, Israel seized the West Bank and East Jerusalem, previously under Jordanian rule, and Gaza, previously administered by Egypt and under blockade by Israel since 2007. Collectively they are home to more than five million Palestinians. Within Israel, there are approximately 2 million citizens of Palestinian origin, one fifth of the total population, meaning that Palestinians from around half of the population in the lands controlled by Israel. All these four Palestinian groups have different rights from each other that are all inferior to those of Jewish Israelis living in the same areas (except for Gaza where there are no Israeli settlements). As B’Tselem points out, “the entire area between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River is organized under a single principle: advancing and cementing the supremacy of one group—Jews—over another—Palestinians.” B’Tselem’s report, “A regime of Jewish supremacy from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea: This is apartheid,” argues, “By geographically, demographically and physically engineering space, the regime enables Jews to live in a contiguous area with full rights, including self-determination, while Palestinians live in separate units and enjoy fewer rights. This qualifies as an apartheid regime, although Israel is commonly viewed as a democracy upholding a temporary occupation.” Apartheid is deemed a crime under international law. In 1973, the United Nations General Assembly called for the ratification of The International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid, which the 2002 Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court defined as inhumane acts “committed in the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime.” Neither Israel nor its chief backer the US signed up to the Rome Statute. Hagai El-Ad, B’Tselem’s executive director, said, “Israel is not a democracy that has a temporary occupation attached to it. “It is one regime between the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, and we must look at the full picture and see it for what it is: apartheid.” B’Tselem is not alone it its view. Israeli human rights groups, leftist groups, the so-called “peace camp”, the Meretz Party and politicians, including President Reuven Rivlin and former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert, have for some time been warning that while there was “not yet apartheid” in Israel, it was on a slippery slope. More than a few politicians argued that without a “two state solution,” Israel would become an apartheid state.
China’s growth rate increase fuels geo-political tensions - Under different circumstances, the Chinese government’s announcement that the economy grew by 6.5 percent in the final quarter of the 2020 would have been welcomed as providing a useful boost to global growth. Despite a contraction of 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, output expanded by 2.3 percent overall for the year. This news was not welcome in many ruling circles today, however. It will lead to increased tensions with the US amid concerns that the expansion of the Chinese economy in the face of a slump in America and other major economies will boost the economic and political power of Beijing, which the US is determined to counter. The 6.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter indicates that the Chinese economy is expanding at a faster rate than before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, exceeding expectations. The main reason for the rebound was a 7.1 percent rise in industrial production in the fourth quarter, compared to a 5.8 percent increase in the third, as a result of greater state support. Increased exports were another factor. China recorded its highest-ever monthly trade surplus in December. Exports rose by 18 percent—the third consecutive month of a double-digit percentage increase. Announcing the figures, Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said the economy had “recovered steadily” last year, but cautioned that the “changing epidemic dynamics and external environment pose a multitude of uncertainties.” After three decades of US-led wars, the outbreak of a third world war, which would be fought with nuclear weapons, is an imminent and concrete danger. The economic growth was reflected in financial data. The Chinese currency, the renminbi, went over the level of 6.5 to the US dollar for the first time since 2018 and the stock market hit its highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The Chinese growth stands in marked contrast to the rest of the world. The World Bank expects the global economy to have contracted by 4.3 percent last year, much of it due to an expected 7.4 percent slump in the eurozone, with the contraction in the US expected to be 3.6 percent. In reporting the Chinese figures, the Wall Street Journal gave expression to issues that are undoubtedly being discussed in the incoming Biden administration and more broadly within the US political and intelligence establishment. The newspaper noted that while in per capita terms China’s gross domestic product (GDP) at $10,000 was far below the US level of $65,000, “the sheer size of its market, combined with its weathering of the worst economic downturn in memory, means that China is arguably entering the new year with a stronger hand.”
Hong Kong Imposes Unprecedented COVID Lockdown As China Scrambles To Protect Beijing - In the first sign of confirmation that the current COVID resurgence taking place in northeastern China might be more widespread than the Chinese state (and its attendant party-controlled press organs) have been letting on, the city of Hong Kong on Friday just announced its first-ever lockdown, a measure that is reminiscent of the harsher measures used to combat the outbreak of SARs, which hammered the tiny (formally) autonomous city state nearly 20 years ago. According to the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong will lock down around 150 residential buildings in coronavirus-hit Yau Tsim Mong district. To enforce the measure, the city will deploy more than 1.7K "disciplined services officers" - 500 from police, and the rest from customs, immigration, fire services and correctional services - in an "unprecedented" bid to protect a neighborhood stuffed with ageing, subdivided flats, apartments. Like elsewhere in China, new cases in Hong Kong have been rising in recent weeks, with the city recording 61 new coronavirus cases on Friday, including 55 that were locally transmitted. Twenty-six cases deemed "untraceable." Another 50 people tested preliminary-positive, and are awaiting confirmation. The lockdown is expected to begin at midnight in the district’s designated mandatory testing area. Sources earlier clarified that Sham Shui Po district, originally believed to be included in the plan, was not yet affected. Elsewhere in China, authorities in Beijing and Hubei are setting up more rounds of mandatory COVID testing covering millions of people as they continue to scramble to keep the virus out of Beijing. Here's a quick breakdown of the what the new lockdown will entail, according ot the SCMP. Starting on Saturday morning, residents living in some 150 buildings in the cordon will not be allowed to leave the area until the restriction is lifted, which could be as soon as Sunday. About 4 per cent of the city’s population of 7.5 million people live in the whole of Yau Tsim Mong. The district covers the areas of Yau Ma Tei, Tsim Sha Tsui, Mong Kok, and Jordan, and is the second most populous area across the city’s 18 districts, based on official census data. The locked down area is located in the middle of the district, along the thoroughfare Nathan Road. While the area under lock down involves old residential blocks in Kowloon, the city’s high density means it is close to glitzy shopping centres and skyscrapers housing international companies.
As COVID-19 resurges, Chinese workers hit by pay and job cuts - The coronavirus pandemic is continuing to spread in China, and a recent report has revealed that, as elsewhere around the world, governments and employers are exploiting the crisis to slash wages and full-time jobs. According to the National Health Commission, 118 new confirmed COVID-19 cases (symptomatic) and 91 asymptomatic infections were reported in China on January 18. As of midnight on January 19, China had 2,215 confirmed cases and 811 asymptomatic infections. As well as being placed on the front line of the pandemic, Chinese workers are facing an offensive against their working conditions. On January 16, the School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua University released the “2020 Township Labor Market Survey Report.” The report stated that during the pandemic, 24.4 percent of workers have experienced a wage cut, with 6 percent of workers’ wages dropping sharply. In addition, 31.7 percent of township workers started to take part-time jobs after the pandemic began. Support for workers’ food and accommodation in the workplace also dropped significantly. Hebei, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces are still the hardest hit COVID-19 areas. The Hebei Provincial Health Commission issued a notice on January 17, upgrading a region in Xinle City, Shijiazhuang to a high-risk area. Another high-risk area in Shijiazhuang is Gaocheng District. Also on January 17, another 10 Shijiazhuang districts were upgraded to medium-risk, taking Hebei Province’s total of medium-risk areas to 48. Also on January 17, a Jilin Province pandemic prevention and control press conference announced that a “super transmission” event had occurred in the province, causing 102 cases, after an asymptomatic infected sales person from Heilongjiang entered Jilin. According to reports, from January 6 to 11, he conducted four marketing activities aimed at the elderly. A few days ago, the epidemic in Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province spread to eight cities in three provinces within three days. According to the data previously notified by Heilongjiang Province, the province had 216 new infections inside seven days. An infected person reportedly attended a wedding for two consecutive days, resulting in an outbreak. What is particularly worrying is that many infected people took trains or buses and entered crowded places such as stations, expanding the pandemic’s geographical scope.
World Bank exposes economic and social impact of coronavirus in South Asia - Governments in South Asia, one of the poorest areas in the world, are ruthlessly imposing the burden of economic devastation created by the coronavirus pandemic onto the working masses. COVID-19 infections continue to wreak havoc, with the number of infections in the region climbing yesterday to a total of 12 million with 176,000 deaths in the region. Globally, the number of cases has hit 95 million with over two million deaths. Published early this month, the World Bank’s 2021 Global Economic Prospects, notes that the pandemic “has had a devastating impact on South Asia, leading to an estimated 6.7 percent output contraction in 2020.” Regional growth will be 3.3 and 3.8 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, the report states. It predicts a 16 percent drop in South Asia’s pre-pandemic output levels until 2022 and “weaker-than-expected” growth. Referring to the social impact on working people, the report blandly states, “Human capital will be eroded by higher long-term unemployment, disruptions in education, and deteriorating health outcomes.” Global Economic Prospects points out that the most vulnerable social layers in South Asia are in the “informal sector,” where 80 percent of the region’s working population is engaged and who suffered severe income losses last year. This includes temporary workers, the self-employed, day-labourers and those in restaurants, transportation or domestic service work. They have no job security, pensions or health facilities. Referring to increases in unemployment and poverty, the report notes that “close to a hundred million new poor —those below the $US1.90 per day poverty line—will be living in the region by the end of this year” (emphasis added). According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimates, the number of people living in extreme poverty in India has already risen from 80 million in 2018 to 120 million in 2020. It estimates that “livelihood losses” during the pandemic in Pakistan is over 20 million while in Dhaka and Chattogram where 26 million of Bangladeshis live, 68 percent of jobs were lost. In Sri Lanka millions of workers lost jobs across the informal sector as well as in the tourism and apparel industries. South Asian governments have responded to the pandemic by pumping money into big businesses via so-called stimulus packages. This includes 30 trillion rupees ($405 billion) in India, 1.3 trillion rupees ($8 billion) in Pakistan, 1.2 trillion takas ($14 billion) in Bangladesh and 230 billion rupees ($1.2 billion) in Sri Lanka. Cheap government loans with “policy rate cuts of about 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points) on average in 2020, and 625 basis points in Pakistan,” have also been provided, the report notes. A blog by World Bank economists entitled “End of Poverty in South Asia” points out that, “relief programs for firms usually rely on formal channels, such as big banks, which may not reach most small and micro firms.” The rate cuts and government stimulus packages during the pandemic have boosted stock markets values and the wealth of big businesses and billionaires throughout South Asia. India’s two richest individuals, Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, for example, increased their wealth by at least by 25 and 100 percent respectively last year. According to Oxfam, India’s wealthiest 10 percent hold 77 percent of the county’s total wealth. While South Asia is a tax haven for big investors this has not satisfied big business. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the country’s biggest lobby groups, are demanding more tax reductions in Modi government’s forthcoming February budget to “encourage domestic manufacturing.”
“They Left Us Starving”: How the Fashion Industry Abandoned Its Workers -In 2019 the fashion industry generated $2.5trn in global revenues, making it one of the largest industries in the world. But when COVID-19 struck in 2020, it virtually collapsed. Exports of raw materials from China began to slow in January last year, and subsequent lockdowns around the world meant shoppers stayed at home, retailers shuttered stores, and billions of dollars of orders were cancelled. Thousands of factories faced ruin, and many closed either temporarily or permanently.In countries such as India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, tens of thousands of workers lost their jobs and thousands more were taken ill as COVID-19 spread through cramped production lines. Where people dared to speak up about unsafe or unfair conditions, they were often met with redundancy or brutality.Many experts believe the pandemic has illuminated the exploitative nature of the world’s garment supply chains, which have undergone a radical transformation in recent decades. “The fashion industry is at root an exploitative system based on the exploitation of a low-paid and undervalued workforce in producing countries,” according to Dominique Muller at Labour Behind the Label. “The system is created in order to protect those at the top while allowing workers to take the biggest hit.” “Consumers should never forget this era and what the brands have done with workers,” said Kalpona Akter, the executive director of the Bangladesh Center for Workers Solidarity. “When the time came for them to have our back they left us starving.”“COVID has shown us the reality of empty promises from businesses, from brands, retailers and manufacturers,” Kalpona continued. “The workers made them profits for years, and gave them a lavish life, but when the pandemic started they just left the workers to starve.” In a recent study, which interviewed 400 garment workers across nine countries, the Worker Rights Consortium found that even those employees who managed to hold onto their jobs reported a 21% decrease in income between March and August 2020 – with monthly wages falling from $187 to $147.
Japan’s suicide rate rises 16% in second wave of Covid, study finds Suicide rates in Japan have risen sharply in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly among women and children, even though they fell in the first wave when the government offered generous handouts to people, a survey found. The July-October suicide rate rose 16% from the same period a year earlier, a stark reversal of the February-June decline of 14%, according to the study by researchers at Hong Kong University and Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology. “Unlike normal economic circumstances, this pandemic disproportionately affects the psychological health of children, adolescents and females (especially housewives),” the authors wrote in the study published on Friday in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. The early decline in suicides was affected by such factors as government subsidies, reduced working hours and school closure, the study found. But the decline reversed – with the suicide rate rising 37% for women, about five times the increase among men – as the prolonged pandemic hurt industries where women predominate, increasing the burden on working mothers, while domestic violence increased, the report said. The study, based on health ministry data from November 2016 to October 2020, found the child suicide rate rose 49% in the second wave, corresponding to the period after a nationwide school closure.Australian Tennis Open proceeds despite growing COVID-19 infections -- The staging of this year’s Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne in the midst of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has become a naked demonstration of the subordination of public health and every other aspect of life, including sport, to the profit-driven dictates of the wealthy corporate elite. “Profits before lives” is literally the theme under which the global season-opening event is taking place. The Victorian state Labor Party government is helping more than 1,200 international tennis players, their support staff and broadcasters fly into the country on special charter flights for next month’s slightly delayed competition, and is allowing them to forgo normal quarantine requirements. This is despite growing numbers of the participants testing positive to COVID-19, which may include the more infectious variants that first came to light in Britain. So dangerous is this operation, with planes arriving from the US, Europe and other heavily-infected regions, that positive virus tests have been confirmed on at least three charter flights so far. This has resulted in 170 of the passengers, including 72 players, being placed in “hard quarantine” in hotels for 14 days, unable to practice on courts. The test results from another 13 charter flights are yet to be announced, but Tennis Australia is refusing to call off the tournament or even delay the scheduled February 8 start. By contrast, an estimated 40,000 ordinary Australian citizens face endless delays getting back home, often stuck in severely infected countries, because of government indifference, caps on arrivals and a failure to organise adequate quarantine facilities. In a desperate public relations exercise to counter mounting public outrage over this disparity, the federal Liberal-National Coalition government yesterday announced it would charter 20 flights to enable some stranded people to get back to Australia. No details have yet been released as to when and where these arrangements will be made.
Mexico’s female vigilantes take lead in fighting drug cartels - The Michoacan area of Mexico has gotten so lawless, a band of female vigilantes are taking it upon themselves to protect their friends and family.The state, which is the world’s largest supplier of avocados and limes, has recently been overrun by the violent Jalisco drug cartel that hail from the neighboring state and so the women are fighting back, according to The Associated Press.The women carry assault rifles and post roadblocks, often while pregnant or carrying small children with them, to combat the growing homicide levels, which have skyrocketed since 2013. The majority of the women have lost family members to the cartel, like Blanco Nava who told the AP her son Freddy Barrios, a 29-year old lime picker, was kidnapped by presumed Jalisco cartel gunmen in pickup trucks; she has never heard from him since.Another woman claimed her 14-year-old daughter was kidnapped and hasn’t been seen since, saying “We are going to defend those we have left, the children we have left, with our lives. We women are tired of seeing our children, our families disappear. They take our sons, they take our daughters, our relatives, our husbands.” It is left to the women to fight as most men are being carted away to work for the cartels (willingly or not).
Massive rise in unemployment in Germany during the pandemic - On January 5, the German Federal Employment Agency published the official unemployment figures for December 2020, reporting an increase to 2.7 million unemployed, 480,000 more than in the same month last year. This corresponds to an increase of 21.6 percent. These official figures reflect only part of the reality. For example, 3,543,000 people were “underemployed” in December 2020, 363,000 more than in December 2019. Those considered underemployed are the unemployed and jobseekers who are temporarily participating in Federal Employment Agency measures, are sick, over 58 years old, or are considered difficult to place and are therefore not included in the official statistics by the employment offices. Also included are people who only have a part-time job but would like to work more or full-time hours. Not included in the statistics is the high number of workers on reduced hours. According to the most recent data available, nearly 2 million people were on reduced hours in October 2020. Hundreds of thousands who were employed in the low-wage sector, such as mini-jobbers, solo self-employed and temporary workers and those who lost their jobs due to the consequences of the pandemic are not included in the official figures. In the first coronavirus wave in the spring of 2020, 850,000 mini-jobbers lost their jobs without entitlement to reduced hour or unemployment benefits. The effects of the COVID-19 crisis are particularly evident in Berlin. The number of unemployed has risen by 52,238 to 202,388. This represents an increase of 35 percent. In the catering industry alone, roughly 7,000 jobs have been lost. Here again, it is impossible to say exactly how many workers are currently on reduced hours. Estimates by labour market researchers suggest that Berlin would register at least 100,000 more unemployed without the reduced-hour work scheme. In the official unemployment statistics, which are already bad enough, mini-jobbers are not even recorded. Like the underemployed, the 11,000 solo self-employed who lost their jobs in Berlin in recent months and have had to apply for basic social security (Grundsicherung) do not appear in the statistics. Those with mini-jobs in Berlin numbered 216,000 in 2019, most of them in the retail sector and 34,000 in the catering and service sectors. There are no figures yet on how many have lost their jobs. For many, the mini-job is not a side job to earn some extra money, but their primary employment and main source of income. According to the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), about 5 million people nationwide relied on their mini-job as their primary employment in 2019. When these people lose their mini-jobs, it immediately results in severe financial problems and existential hardship. More than 40 percent of all employees have suffered massive income losses since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Workers with modest incomes before the pandemic have been disproportionately affected.
Thousands march in Vienna against coronavirus restrictions (Reuters) - Thousands of people marched through Vienna on Saturday to protest against restrictions on public life designed to curb the coronavirus pandemic, just as Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s government held talks about extending the measures. Chanting demonstrators - many without masks - held signs including “Kurz Must Go” and “Make Influenza Great Again” during marches through the city centre. Austria, a country of 8.9 million people, is in its third lockdown, with only essential shops open. The country has reported nearly 390,00 coronavirus cases and almost 7,000 COVID-19 linked deaths since the pandemic began last year. Public health experts said after meeting government officials that infection rates were too high to consider easing restrictions at this point. The government was due to announce its next steps on Sunday.
'Treated like dogs': row over social distancing alarms at French factory - Workers at a French factory manufacturing toilet paper and other hygiene products are opposing plans to introduce Covid-19 “social distancing” alarms. Managers say the devices, which beep, vibrate, flash or emit an alarm of up to 83 decibels if the wearer is less than 2 metres from a colleague, are being tested to protect workers’ health. However, union representatives have accused bosses of “particularly intrusive behaviour … that infantilises workers” and say the system is “comparable to those that try to dissuade dogs from barking”. “Are they treating staff like dogs?” the ConfĂ©dĂ©ration Française DĂ©mocratique du Travail (CFDT) union asked. A spokesperson for Essity, a Swedish company producing soap, tissues and sanitary products, told AFP the alarms were being tested among 2,800 workers at its factory at Gien, in the Loire Valley. Employees have been informed that the devices are for their own safety and will be automatically deactivated in the firm’s canteen as well as in lavatories and medical areas. The devices are not personalised and do not enable the company to track staff, the management said, but they can be used to identify those in contact with any staff member who tests positive for Covid-19.
Perhaps It’s Time to Start Worrying About Italy Again - The Euro Area’s weakest link, Italy, is once again in the familiar grip of a political crisis. The trigger this time was a decision by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to orchestrate the resignations of two ministers from his fledgling IItalia Viva party. Renzi accuses the current premier Giuseppe Conte of amassing too much power during the coronavirus crisis. He also challenges Conte’s reluctance to draw upon European Recovery and Resilience funds and the European Supervisory Mechanism, which Conte fears could come with all sorts of nasty strings attached. What happens next will depend on whether Conte can shore up support in parliament among independent lawmakers. He still has the backing of the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, which have criticised Renzi’s move as irresponsible. On Monday, Conte made his case in the lower house and will have to do the same in the Senate on Tuesday. Each appearance must be followed by a voice vote, which is tantamount to a vote of confidence. On Monday, Conte won the vote after Italia Viva’s members chose to abstain but he’s likely to face a stiffer challenge in the Senate. In the best case scenario, this crisis — like so many political crises in Italy — will fizzle out. Conte may well survive to lead what would be his third government by amassing enough support in both houses. But his already flimsy government will be further weakened. If he fails to form a new government, he will probably submit his resignation to Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who could call for the formation of a technical government. For the moment the financial markets are pretty sanguine about this latest episode of Italian high drama. The yields on Italian bonds are still close to an all-time low, at 0.63%. The main reason for this is that the ECB is buying even more Italian bonds than ever before. Through its public sector purchase program (PSPP) and pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) it purchased €165 billion of Italian bonds in the first eleven months of 2020, bringing its total holdings to €529 billion. But even as the ECB and Italian lenders keep a tight lid on Italy’s bond yields, pushing the country’s debt servicing costs lower while its debt explodes higher, there are still major causes for concern.
Sorry, but debt forgiveness is not going to happen - It is a law of finance that as government deficits balloon, calls for debt forgiveness grow. And, sure enough, this time is no different. In November,Riccardo Fraccaro, Italian cabinet under-secretary and close aide to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, floated the idea of the European Central Bank cancelling government bonds bought during the pandemic. Putting our cynicism to one side for a moment, there are sound reasons for such calls. Chief among them is that debt cancellation would allow for a normalisation of monetary policy: one could end quantitative easing by in effect pretending it never happened, raising interest rates back closer to their historical norms with no fear of stirring a financial meltdown, and restoring the global economy to the world we knew prior to the great financial crisis. One might also argue that the growing inequality triggered by asset price inflation could be brought under control too.Alas, this is all way too optimistic. And the reason is this: Across advanced economies, debts have piled up. All of those countries listed above have, to varying degrees, significantly higher burdens now than they did in 2002. But, as the chart above shows, the nature of the current debt boom differs spectacularly from state to state.Switzerland is a case in point: perceived (rightly) as a bastion of fiscal prudence, it is actually more leveraged than Italy — seen as a case study in profligacy — when you consider sources of debt beyond the state. Swiss mortgages, it turns out, are a formidable debt burden indeed.And herein lies the problem. Most of the calls for debt forgiveness focus on forgiveness of sovereign debt. But, while that would enable a country such as Italy to handle higher interest rates, the same cannot be said about Switzerland -- Swiss homeowners would remain highly indebted and face real difficulties in a higher interest rate regime making it eventually unsustainable.One might argue that, with central banks’ buying sprees including ever more corporate debt, mortgage-backed securities and other assets, at some point enough debt from all economic sectors will be held by them that we can then cancel debt across the board.Sounds easy. But it isn't. How could you possibly justify cancelling the debt of highly leveraged company A and not of its competitor company B, which happens to only have bank loans but no bonds outstanding that the central bank can buy? Not to mention the adverse impact of debt cancellation on the competitive position of company C, who happens to be debt-free. This question is especially pertinent given the inability of smaller firms to tap bond markets — especially in Europe — which has meant that they have not benefited directly from quantitative easing, under which only bonds have been purchased.
Central Bank Machinations with No Exit: ECB Leaks New Thingy, It’s Doing Yield Spread Control - - The ECB, which is already infamous for imposing negative interest rates, has been doing something new, something no other central bank has done before or even needed to do before. Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the ECB is controlling the yield spread between the government bonds of the 19 euro states, for example the spread between German and Italian government bond yields. According to one of these sources, the ECB has specific ideas about what yield spreads are appropriate. And to heck with any kind of market.The ECB isn’t doing “yield curve control” as the Bank of Japan and the Royal Bank of Australia are doing, but effectively “yield spread control.” Bloomberg reached out to the ECB, but a spokesman refused to comment on it. The fact that this strategy has now been leaked is part of the effort to accomplish the goal – with communications, whether directly or indirectly, all being part of “jawboning” the markets, what’s left of them, into doing what the central banks want them to do. Jawboning is an official tool in every central bank’s official tool kit and often works better than actually doing something.The ECB has long been doing “whatever it takes” to keep the currency union with 19 nations glued together, dodging its legal limits against monetary financing and shrugging off court challenges.But unlike other central banks, it faces a complex situation. Each of the euro nations is issuing its own government debt. And the ECB has limits on how much debt it can hold of each country. It has been buying government bonds to manipulate down bond yields – not the German yields, which were already low, but Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese yields, the yield of countries with the weakest economies and the most indebted governments. It succeeded years ago with this goal, which had been thoroughly communicated. What’s new is the “yield spread control” – and that it has a specific yield spread in mind. This is different from your grandmother’s “yield curve control.” Yield curve control was used by the Fed in mid-1942 to reduce the borrowing costs of the US government during the war. The Fed set the short-term yields at 0.375%, the 10-year yield at 2.0%, and the long-bond yield at 2.5%. It explicitly communicated these yields, and communicated that it would buy whatever it took to maintain those yields, and that’s how it went. By 1947, inflation was 18%, and the Fed gradually undid yield curve control. The Bank of Japan followed suit in September 2016 when it introduced its “QQE with Yield Curve Control,” targeting a 10-year yield of “around” 0%, and committing unlimited purchases to obtain this yield. Between the BOJ’s holdings of government bonds, and the bond holdings of government institutions, there is no government bond market left to challenge the concept. Yield curve control has the advantage, from a central bank point of view, that if it is credible, the central bank may not have to buy a lot of securities to enforce it, since the market knows the target, and knows that’s what a central bank with unlimited buying power can achieve, and therefore falls in line. The results of jawboning are marvelous.
Dutch government falls as deaths mount in COVID-19 pandemic - On January 15, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced his government’s resignation ahead of national elections scheduled for March 17. He will head a caretaker government until then. Rutte claimed that his resignation aimed to redress the wrong committed in a 2013-2019 welfare scandal, where the Dutch state falsely accused 26,000 parents of dual-national families of welfare fraud, improperly forcing them to pay back tens of thousands of euros in child benefit. “With this decision, the government wants to do justice to all those parents who have been unprecedentedly wronged,” Rutte said. “The rule of law should protect citizens from the all-powerful government, and that has gone horribly wrong here.” The welfare scandal is a state crime: tens of thousands of families, selected by Dutch welfare agencies via ethnic profiling of those holding Moroccan or Turkish dual citizenship, were financially ruined and humiliated. This cold-blooded ethnic selection of citizens to be ruined is a disturbing sign of growing fascistic sentiment within the state machine, implicating the entire Dutch political establishment. What is driving Rutte’s resignation is not, however, a national crisis, let alone Rutte’s supposed contrition over his government’s anti-Muslim policies. Rutte brought down his own government amid mounting anger among workers internationally at the ruling elite’s “herd immunity” policies on the COVID-19 pandemic, and as Dutch deaths in the pandemic hit 13,000. Governments across Europe are tottering after US President Donald Trump incited a mob to storm the Capitol in Washington on January 6 in an attempted fascist coup. Rutte resigned only a few days after Matteo Renzi pulled out of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s coalition government, and Estonia’s government fell over a corruption scandal. Rutte’s resignation comes as the bourgeoisie internationally debates a turn to authoritarian forms of rule, against mass anger building in the working class at austerity and “herd immunity” policies. With the resignation, Rutte aims to weather the storm, win re-election and continue his policies, including “herd immunity” and inciting anti-Muslim hatred, with as few changes as possible. Above all, the resignation aims to perpetuate the political fraud that the Dutch bourgeoisie’s policy is liberal and democratic, while it in fact continues a murderous, ever more fascistic policy on the pandemic and against the rights of the working class—especially of immigrant workers.
Chinese university to open Budapest campus as Orban tilts to Beijing - Hungary is to host the only Chinese university operating inside the EU in a sign of deepening ties between the government of Viktor Orban and Beijing. The Hungarian government will donate €2.2m to the Shanghai-based Fudan University for its new Budapest campus, which the authorities said would start operating in 2024. The announcement comes a year and a half after Central European University, founded by the billionaire philanthropist George Soros and previously the top-ranked institution in the country, was forced into exile by Mr Orban’s nationalist regime, after almost 30 years in the Hungarian capital.In October, the European Court of Justice said the move against CEU violated Hungary’s commitments under the World Trade Organization, and infringed the provisions of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights relating to academic freedom.Agnes Szunomar, a researcher at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, said the government’s accord with Fudan “is about unconditional love between Hungary and China”.“Quite a lot of countries in Europe have different agreements with Chinese universities, and many European universities collaborate with Chinese counterparts,” Ms Szunomar said.However, she added that the agreement to bring Fudan to Budapest was evidence that Hungary is willing to undercut its own education system by bringing in a foreign competitor with greater global prestige and more resources than any domestic institution. Fudan, Ms Szunomar said, with its enormous budget and capacity to issue dual degrees, could lure away top academic talent from Hungarian universities, causing a “brain drain”. Fudan, which is ranked 34th in the QS World University Rankings, will offer programmes in international relations, economics, medicine and technical sciences to up to 6,000 students. Until the Budapest campus opens, joint degree programmes with four Hungarian universities will be offered.’
Local reports of COVID-19 deaths in UK schools confirm concealed impact of pandemic -- COVID-19 deaths in Britain continue to mount with another 599 fatalities reported Monday. This brings the death toll as measured by the government to almost 90,000 (89,860). However, the true figure, counting cases where coronavirus was noted on the death certificate, passed the 100,000 mark last week. Among the deaths are those of educators. The ToryFibs twitter group on —which collates school infections based on reports from school websites, local news reports and National Health Service updates—published a list of eight school staff who have died of COVID-19 during the months of November and December. No similar reporting is taking place in any national media outlet. The governments’ propaganda that schools were “COVID-safe” was dealt a devastating blow when the Tories were forced to include schools in the latest national lockdown. Prior to Prime Minister Boris Johnsons’ January 4 lockdown announcement, the government had even threatened legal action against those schools intending to close due to high infection rates. The government’s hand was forced as it became clear that school staff and parents had begun to boycott schools. The school closures have come four months after the full reopening of schools in September following the first national lockdown, a deadly endeavour predicated on a policy of “herd immunity” that has led to tens of thousands of infections and a spate of deaths in schools. Year seven pupils arrive for their first day at Kingsdale Foundation School in London, Thursday, Sept. 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth) Even now, nurseries and special educational needs schools remain open and many “closed schools” are reporting up to 70 percent attendance due to new criteria around children of essential workers as more of the economy is opened up. Many poorer children are also being forced into classrooms due to an inability to access online learning. According to recent data supplied to TES ( Times Educational Supplement ) by the NASUWT teaching union, virus rates among school staff in some areas are currently as high as four times the corresponding local authority average. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has not updated its published data on the deaths of educators since June, (before the full reopening of schools after the first national lockdown). That data revealed that 148 education workers in the UK had by then died of COVID-19. Below is a summary of the deaths of school staff that have been reported locally or on social media in the last months.
Record UK COVID-19 deaths as government plots ending “the last” lockdown - COVID-19 deaths in the UK hit a record of 1,610 on Tuesday and 33,355 new cases. With a seven-day average of 16.7 daily deaths per million people, the UK currently has the worst COVID-19 death rate in the world. The deaths took the official tally past 90,000—measured as all who have perished within 28 days of a positive test. The true total is substantially higher, with more than 105,000 death certificates mentioning COVID-19. Since January 1, there have been 17,914 deaths from the virus and nearly 1 million new cases (978,069). The programme of “herd immunity” has driven the response of the Conservative government to the pandemic, based on the demands of big business that the economy be kept open and profit making not impacted. Over the last year the government was forced to implement three lockdowns under pressure from the working class. November’s lockdown barely impacted the number of coronavirus patients in hospital. The current lockdown, begun on January 5, is significantly less restrictive than the first in March, despite a new more contagious strain of the virus and worse hospitalisation rates than before. It is due to be reviewed on March 31, with all indications being that the Tories are moving to end what is being described as the “last lockdown”. This is being justified by citing a vaccination programme with only just over four million people having received the first dose of a required two doses. The population of the UK is over 66 million. From this week, those aged over 70 are being offered the vaccine, under conditions in which just over half of those aged 80 and half of those in care homes—among the most vulnerable people—have been vaccinated. There are people in their 90s who have not yet received their first dose. The Daily Mirror reported Tuesday that “residents in Folkestone and Hythe in Kent are furious with no-one over 80 in the district having yet received a vaccine, despite having the UK's worst Covid death rate. The south-eastern seaside area had a fatality toll of 265.5 per 100,000 people last week, Government figures show.” The Sunday Times reported that the government will end lockdown before the population is vaccinated. A government source told the newspaper, “For the first time there are no significant divisions between hawks and doves in the cabinet. Everyone accepted that we need to lock down hard and everyone accepts that we need to open up before everyone is vaccinated.” On Sunday, Foreign Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News, “What we want to do is get out of this national lockdown as soon as possible.” He added, “By early spring, hopefully by March, we’ll be in a position to make those decisions. I think it’s right to say we won’t do it all in one big bang. As we phase out the national lockdown, I think we’ll end up phasing through a (regional) tiered approach.”
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