week ending Mar 13

Markets set up for disappointment from Fed meeting as bond yields renew rise -  All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week as traders put pressure on the central bank to prevent a de-stabilizing rise in bond yields. Yet the U.S. central bank is likely to stick to its messaging that higher yields reflect the rosier economic outlook, suggesting the clash between recalcitrant bond traders and a patient central bank will continue.“The Fed is aiming for higher inflation which means higher interest rates. I think the market has misread the Fed in thinking about yield curve control,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist for Mizuho, in e-mailed comments.The central bank’s unwillingness to push back against the bond market’s speculation has ended up sapping investor sentiment, with the sharp rise in long-term bond yields this year causing momentary panic across technology stocks, corporate bonds and emerging markets.Some of these market nerves reflect worries that a further disorderly increase in long-term yields could hamstring a recovering and highly leveraged economy, ill-prepared to deal with a rise in borrowing costs.The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose to around a one-year high of 1.63% at the end of the week, The benchmark maturity is up around 70 basis points where it traded at the start of 2021.Analysts anticipate Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will repeat the mantra that the central bank remains far away from reaching its employment and inflation goals at his press conference after the policy meeting on March 17.Perhaps more pertinently, the Fed is unlikely to meet the calls of bond traders to announce tweaks to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which was adjusted last year to help banks deal with the coronavirus crisis, or to change the composition of its monthly purchases of U.S. Treasurys and mortgage bonds. “They’re going to be resistant to being pushed around. The last thing they want to do is fight the market. As long as [the rise in yields] is orderly and as long as credit markets are operating well, the Fed is getting what it wanted,” Gregory Staples, head of fixed income North America at DWS, told MarketWatch.

 Fed Chairman Powell says economic reopening could cause inflation to pick up temporarily --Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he expects some inflationary pressures in the time ahead but they likely won't be enough to spur the central bank to hike interest rates. "We expect that as the economy reopens and hopefully picks up, we will see inflation move up through base effects," Powell said during a Wall Street Journal conference. "That could create some upward pressure on prices." Markets reacted negatively to Powell's comments, with stocks sliding and Treasury yields jumping. Some investors and economists had been looking for him to address the recent surge in rates, with a possible nod toward adjusting the Fed's asset purchase program. The Fed currently is buying $120 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. Recent market chatter has revolved around the central bank potentially implementing a new version of "Operation Twist," in which it sells short-term notes and buys longer-dated bonds. According to Fed officials, the central bank is far from any action to try to influence the long end of yields, despite expectations from economists and Wall Street strategists, CNBC's Steve Liesman reported. Powell instead reiterated past statements he has made on inflation in saying that he doesn't expect the move up in prices to be long lasting or enough to change the Fed from its accommodative monetary policy. He did note that the rise in yields did catch his attention, as have improving economic conditions. The Fed likes inflation to run around 2%, a rate it believes signals a healthy economy and provides some room to cut interest rates during times of crisis. However, the rate has run below that for most of the past decade and inflation has been particularly weak during the coronavirus pandemic. With the economy increasingly back on its feet, some price pressures are likely to emerge, said Powell, but he added they likely will be transitory and look higher because of "base effects," or the difference against last year's deeply depressed levels just as the Covid-19 crisis began.

Are Market Expectations of Inflation Really Rising? --  Menzie Chinn -A typical market-based measure of expected inflation is the inflation breakeven calculated by subtracting the TIPS yield from Treasury yield at corresponding maturities. The breakeven spread is shown as the blue line in Figure 1. Figure 1. Five year inflation breakeven calculated at five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by Kim-Wright term premium (red),  and adjusted by Adrian-Crump-Moench term premium (green), all in %. Source: FRB via FRED, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.The breakeven series has clearly been on the rise. However, what does this series measure?For the five year maturity, this spread is: (see formula) Where i is the nominal yield, r is the real (TIPS) yield, tp is the term premium due to inflation risk, and lp is the liquidity premium associated with the relative thinness of the TIPS market. Using the Fisherian relationship for nominal and real yields, we find the spread is: (see formula) Notice that only if the term premium and the liquidity premium move exactly together (or both are always zero) will the spread equal expected inflation. This point is stressed by Andreasen,  Christensen and Riddell (2020), who show that the adjusted spread better predicts inflation. I don’t have estimates of the liquidity premium for 5 year TIPS, but I do have estimates of the term premium on 5 year Treasurys. The implied inflation rate holding at zero the liquidity premium is shown as red line (using the Fed’s Kim and Wright three factor model of the term premium) and green line (using the NY Fed’s Adrian, Crump and Moench five factor model). (see formula) While expected inflation is higher when adjusting for the term premium, the increase in the expected inflation is less: 60 bps (FRB) or 30 bps (NY Fed) vs. 90 bps (unadjusted spread). And the adjusted spread has been declining in the last two weeks (thru 3/3).Impounding what I have termed the liquidity premium into what Sirio Aramonte and Fernando Avalos call an inflation risk premium, they write: [….]   All these mechanisms would contribute to the rise of the break-even rate for given inflation expectations, thus boosting the measured inflation risk premium [emphasis added by MDC].So, not only is it possible that expected inflation is less than the conventionally calculated inflation break-even (given the TIPS liquidity premium is likely positive), it might have been decreasing most recently (at least going through 3/3).

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Soft in February -- The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% in February. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".  Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for February here. Motor fuel was up 110% annualized in February. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.3%. Core PCE is for January and increased 1.5% year-over-year.Important Note: We will likely see some year-over-year jumps in some measures of inflation, since we saw some deflation in 2020. For example, we saw negative Month-to-month (MoM) core CPI and CPI readings in March, April and May 2020. Assuming positive readings in those months in 2021, the YoY change in CPI and core CPI will jump.We also saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April 2020.  Ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 5.5% SAAR -There was a research note out yesterday that suggested GDP could be back to pre-recession levels by the end of Q1 2021.  Real GDP peaked at $19.254 trillion in Q4 2019 SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted, Annual Rate, 2012 Dollars). In Q4 2020, real GDP was at $18.784 trillion. To increase to the previous peak, real GDP would have to increase at a 10.4% annual rate in Q1 (or upward revisions to previous quarters). That is very unlikely.  From Merrrill Lynch:   We continue to track 5.5% for 1Q GDP. [Mar 12 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report:   The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 8.6% for 2021:Q1 and 4.0% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 12 estimate]  And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow:  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.4 percent on March 8, up from 8.3 percent on March 5. [Mar 8 estimate]

Unexpected U.S. Growth Surge Could Unbalance Fragile Global Economy – WSJ - A surprisingly strong surge in U.S. growth will drive a sharp rebound in the world economy this year, but the strength of the American bounce could unbalance weaker economies, particularly in the developing world.According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the rise in U.S. government bond yields in response to higher growth and inflation expectations could spark capital flight from emerging economies, where vaccine campaigns have barely begun and whose economic recovery is expected to take longer.The Paris-based research body now expects the world economy to reach pre-pandemic levels of output by the middle of this year, six months earlier than it expected when it last published updated forecasts, in November. It now sees global output increasing by 5.6% in 2021, having declined by 3.4% in 2020. In November, it forecast global growth for this year of 4.2%.The main reason for the upgrade is a stronger outlook for the U.S. economy, which it now sees expanding by 6.5%, more than twice the pace it forecast in November and the fastest expansion since 1984. OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said that reflects an expectation that fiscal stimulus will be delivered, as vaccinations help free the economy of its Covid-19 fetters. The Senate approved Sunday a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill, paving the way for passage through the House as early as Tuesday.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).  This data is as of March 7th. The seven day average is down 55.9% from the same week in 2019 (45.1% of last year).  (Dashed line)  The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through March 6, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases.  Dining is picking up again.  This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).   The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through Mar 4th.  Movie ticket sales were at $5 million last week, down about 96% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  This data is through February 27th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 25.8% year-over-year. In a few weeks, the year-over-year comparisons will be easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy will still be down significantly from normal levels.  This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021. As of February 26th, gasoline supplied was off about 10.0% (about 90.0% of the same week in 2019).  This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer. This data is through March 6th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 54% of the January 2020 level. It is at 47% in Chicago, and 57% in Houston (the dip was a weather related decline) - and moving up recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are under 10 million subway turnstile entries per week. This data is through Friday, March 5th. -

  Five charts that show how Covid-19 stopped the U.S. economy in its tracks The first thing to go was transportation.As the United States began to shut down last March to stop the spread ofCovid-19, before Zoom calls or restaurant shutdowns or endless Netflixbinges, people simply stopped going anywhere.In the months to come, unemployment would rise from 4.4% in March to 14.7% in April. It wouldn't fall back below 10% until August. First-quarter U.S. gross domestic product would decline 4.8% -- at the time, the biggest contraction since the 2008 financial crisis. The next quarter, it would drop 31.4% -- before rising 33.1% in the third quarter.People stopped flying. The Trump administration put a European travel ban into place in mid-March, but domestic air travel plunged precipitously in the days after.On March 12, nearly 1.8 million people passed through Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints in airports, according to U.S. Homeland Security data. A week later, that number had fallen to about 620,000, a drop of 66%. A week after that, it was 203,000. By April, fewer than 100,000 people were flying on most days. Although car travel remained safe, millions stopped going to work. That drastically affected new car sales.Retail auto sales for the week ended March 8 came in just 1% under J.D. Power's forecast. The following week, sales were 14% under forecast. By the week of March 22, unit purchases were 36% below pre-virus forecast. One week later, they were 59% below forecast.With people home, it didn't take long for service industries to shut down.For the restaurant industry, March 9 was the first day people stopped showing up. According to data from Open Table, March 8's seated diners from online, phone and walk-in reservations were off just 1% from a year earlier. A day later, the drop was 14%, year over year.By March 13, it was down 36%. By March 20, it was down 99.35%.It would be June 21 before total patronage was down anything less than 50% from the equivalent day in 2019 The weekend of March 6, 2020, was a normal one at the box office, with U.S. movie theaters bringing in more than $100 million in ticket sales. Disney's "Onward" was the top-grossing movie, followed by NBCUniversal's "The Invisible Man."in an interview published March 8, CNN Business asked Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian if he thought coronavirus fears were keeping anybody away from theaters."It's too early to tell," he said. The next weekend, box-office revenue fell by nearly 50% to $54 million. One week later, it was $195,952. By April, the movie theater business had effectively stopped.The coming weeks would bring all sorts of ripple effects, up and down the supply chain. Restaurants and stores would change their businesses to delivery-first models. Entertainment companies would accelerate shifts to streaming video.An early lagging indicator was oil supply. As transportation stopped, U.S. refiners had to sit on unused barrels -- a statistic that didn't show itself until several weeks after the world came to a halt. The number of days of U.S. gasoline supply still looked near normal on March 20, 2020. By April 24, it had nearly doubled to 48 days.That type of jump is unprecedented, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

US Senate passes pared-back COVID relief bill -On Saturday, the US Senate passed the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, following two days of Republican stalling and negotiations between the Democratic leadership and right-wing Democratic Senator Joe Manchin (West Virginia), which resulted in further cuts in proposed government aid.The so-called “American Rescue Plan” was adopted by a strict 50-49 party-line vote, setting the stage for the expected passage of the pared-back measure by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, followed shortly thereafter by President Joe Biden’s signing the measure into law. The major provisions of the Senate bill include:

• * $400 billion for $1,400 per person stipends
• * $350 billion for state and local governments, which have already laid off tens of thousands of educators and other public service workers
• * $300 billion for the $300-a-week supplemental unemployment benefit through September 6 and a tax exemption for the first $10,200 in 2020 benefits for unemployed workers
• * $160 billion for vaccinations, testing and other direct COVID-19 measures
• * $150 billion to expand child and dependent care tax credits and the earned income tax credit
• * $126 billion for school reopenings
• * $86 billion for underfunded pension plans through the PBGC (Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation)
• * $45 billion for mortgage and rental assistance
• * $28.6 billion for restaurants
• * $1.25 billion for music venues
• * $3 billion for aviation manufacturers

Last week, the House passed the package as initially announced by the White House, including a gradual increase in the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, a one-time cash stipend for all adults earning less than $100,000 a year and all couples earning less than $200,000, and an increase in the weekly supplemental unemployment benefit from $300 to $400. The one-time cash payment is set at $1,400 for individuals making less than $75,000 and $2,800 for couples earning less than $150,000, with additional cash aid for families with children.However, Biden and the Senate Democratic leadership agreed to drop theminimum wage increase—the most significant concession to working people included in the package—in compliance with an advisory ruling by the Senate parliamentarian. The unelected official said the minimum wage hike could not be passed under the budget reconciliation process used by the Democrats in order to prevent a filibuster, which would require 60 votes to break, and obtain passage of the relief bill with a simple majority in the evenly divided chamber.Manchin, who had already declared his opposition to the proposed minimum wage increase, used the threat of withholding his vote to demand as well a lower eligibility cap on the cash stipend—from $100,000 for individuals and $200,000 for couples to $80,000 and $160,000, respectively, a cut that will exclude an estimated 17 million people from receiving the benefit. He then obtained a cut in the weekly jobless benefit from $400 to the current level of $300, itself a 50 percent reduction from the supplemental jobless pay enacted under the CARES Act passed in March 2020.House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer announced over the weekend that the House would vote Tuesday on the version of the bill passed by the Senate.The right-wing character of the Biden administration and the further shift to the right of the Democratic Party as a whole are exemplified in the emergence of Manchin as the dominant figure, exercising virtual veto power of the policies of the government. While Sanders and the so-called “progressives” are relegated to the role of rubber-stamping Biden’s pro-Wall Street and militaristic policies, Manchin and other conservatives are brought forward, as part of the administration’s efforts to reopen the economy and suppress the opposition among workers. It is noteworthy that the senator from West Virginia appeared on virtually all of the Sunday morning interview programs yesterday.

House Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus; Next Stop, Biden's Desk - The House on Wednesday passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package following modifications made by the Senate to their original bill. It now heads to President Biden's desk, where he is expected to sign it on Friday according to White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki.  No Republicans voted for the stimulus. The stimulus is expected to be signed into law before various federal benefits expire on March 14, after which $1,400 checks can begin flowing within one to two weeks based on the timeline for the previous round of checks, and Tuesday comments by Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who said at a Buffalo, New York press conference that families could expect to receive checks in about two weeks."By next weekend, a couple making less than $160,000 could well have $2,800 deposited into their checking account," said Chris Krueger of Cowen & Co. before the Senate approved the bill, according to CBS News. That said, fewer Americans are likely to receive checks in this third round of stimulus due to changes made by the Senate, after a deal was struck with the Biden administration to narrow the qualifications for $1,400 payments. Individuals earning up to $75,000 will be eligible for the full $1,400, while those earning $80,000 or more won't qualify. For couples filing jointly, the phase-out begins at $150,000 and ends at $160,000. Heads of household must earn $112,500 or less to qualify, and are disqualified after $120,000 of income. CBS News suggests using this Omni online calculator to determine whether you qualify based on your most recent tax return.

Biden signs historic $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief law - President Joe Biden signed his sweeping $1.9 trillion Covid-19 economic relief packageinto law on Thursday afternoon."This historic legislation is about rebuilding the backbone of this country and giving people in this nation, working people, middle class folks, people who built the country, a fighting chance," Biden said in the Oval Office before signing the legislation. "That's what the essence of it is."Congress on Wednesday passed the relief package, which has been Biden's first and most pressing legislative priority since taking office in January.Biden had originally been expected to sign the bill on Friday. White House chief of staff Ron Klain said the enrolled bill arrived at the White House on Wednesday night, "so @POTUS is signing it today -- we want to move as fast as possible."Key features of the plan include up to $1,400-per-person stimulus payments that will send money to about 90% of households, a $300 federal boost to weekly jobless benefits, an expansion of the child tax credit of up to $3,600 per child and $350 billion in state and local aid, as well as billions of dollars for K-12 schools to help students return to the classroom, to assist small businesses hard-hit by the pandemic and for vaccine research, development and distribution. Psaki told reporters during Thursday's White House briefing that Americans will start seeing stimulus checks in their bank accounts as early as this weekend, moving up the previous timeline the administration laid out, saying checks would only begin to go out at the end of the month.

Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Kaboom --Kunstler - The Senate bill also includes a provision intended to avert surprise tax bills for people who lost jobs, waiving federal income taxes for the first $10,200 of unemployment benefits received in 2020 for households earning under $150,000.” —The New York Times   Isn’t that a curious concept from the front page of Re-set Central? How does a couple with no jobs and no income earn $150,000 in a year that they were not working? And if they somehow brought in $150,000 anyway, why do they need the support of the US government? Such are the many mysteries of the Coronavirus 2021 stimulus bill. What’s actually going on with this monster of legislation? Kind of looks like an attempt to replace what used to be a national economy with something that pretends to be money conjured from a system pretending to tax itself on wealth that was never generated in the first place. In other words: politicians have achieved the final divorce of wealth from production, and thus economy from reality. The USA has become the Big Rock Candy Mountain. Whatever else the Soviet experiment was, it was at least predicted on producing stuff, however defective the incentives turned out to be, or how shoddy the stuff was that got produced — and the system finally crashed anyway, because it was based on fantasies of human social behavior that just didn’t comport with reality. Now, the USA, in its own existential climax phase, seeks to re-do the Soviet experiment, only minus that feature of industrial production. Instead, our “wealth” gets generated from the banking system alone, and its subsidiary activities, such as hedge funds, arbitrages, dividends from companies with no earnings, and the fees for swapping digitized bundles of this-and-that. You understand that it’s all an illusion, right? Bitcoin is the exemplar of that divorce of wealth from production. Its value appears to be derived from two features: the mathematically elegant blockchain code, which is a distributed accounting system supposedly impervious to government meddling. And “mining” Bitcoin using colossal amounts of electricity to churn the blockchain code, a simple dissipation of energy. What is actually produced by these operations? A promise that a set of digits residing on countless flash drives around the world equal X-amount denominated in national currencies, which are themselves spun out of nothing by a process far less complex than the exertions that produce Bitcoin. It may be true that Bitcoin’s distributed “ledger” is difficult for governments to crack, but governments can just abolish Bitcoin in a few keystrokes by criminalizing the trade of it and confiscating any theoretical profits from it. They have probably refrained so far because the traffic in Bitcoin is still relatively tiny compared to the trade in stocks, bonds, and their derivatives, and because they prefer to keep the Bitcoin model running as a demonstration project in preparation for their own entry into national cryptocurrencies, with all its advantages for tracking individual transactions and targeting tax liabilities.

Peter Schiff: You Can't Consume What You Don't Produce --There’s an economic myth out there. As the story goes, governments can print their way to prosperity. Just run the money printing press, hand out cash for consumers to spend and the economy will hum. In this clip from a podcast episode, Peter Schiff calls it “The Kelton Myth” named for economist Stephanie Kelton. At the root of this tale is the notion that people can consume what they don’t produce. As Peter explains, this simply isn’t possible. Kelton was Bernie Sanders’ economic advisor and is a big proponent of Modern Monetary theory. Of course, she’s not a bit concerned about all of the Federal Reserve money printing. In fact, she says it’s necessary. According to Kelton, without all of this new money, there wouldn’t be enough spending to grow the economy. In a nutshell, we have millions of unemployed people who don’t have enough money, but if we run the printing press and hand out stimulus, then they can spend. After all, what is capitalism all about? Spending money! If people don’t have money, we don’t have economic growth. So, if people don’t have jobs and they’re not earning money, it’s up to the government to replace that income with freshly printed money.  It doesn’t make any difference whether you earn the money or it’s given to you. As long as we have spending, we’ll have economic growth.  Peter said she could not be more wrong.  She has completely got the cart before the horse and not understanding that it’s economic growth that creates spending not the other way around.”  Simply put, you cannot consume what has not been produced.

As Biden models LBJ's Great Society, will fiscal history repeat? - The passage of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid relief bill this week is being heralded as the most significant legislation in more than a generation. It provides a bridge for low-to-middle income households to cope financially until vaccines enable the U.S. economy to function normally. The bill is popular with the electorate for obvious reasons: Families of four earning $150,000 or less will receive checks totaling $5,600 and the unemployed will receive added weekly benefits of $300 into September. Other key provisions include funding for the rollout of vaccines and enhancing school safety, as well as $350 billion of support for state and local assistance. Many of the provisions will lapse after specified periods. However, Democrats are seeking to make increased child-tax-credits permanent — to $3,600 for children under age six and $3,000 for those six to 17-years-old, up from $2,000 currently. The added support is estimated to cost more than $100 billion annually and it is viewed by some as a way to provide permanent assistance to families The main item on the Democrat’s wish list that was not included was the proposed doubling in the minimum wage to $15 per hour. However, progressives indicate they will seek separate legislation on this issue. Beyond this, an ambitious program for the Biden administration is in the works that will include a major infrastructure program and a plan to tackle climate change. The cost could be in the vicinity of $2 trillion to $4 trillion over the coming decade. The main issue for investors is what the budgetary impact of increased federal spending will be. Last year, the federal deficit ballooned to a post-war high of nearly 14 percent of GDP, and it is on pace to rival that level this year. This has caused some observers including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to note the risk that the stimulus could cause the economy to overheat and generate higher inflation and interest rates. For some observers, this predicament is similar to what occurred in the mid-late 1960s when President Lyndon B. Johnson proclaimed the “Great Society” while the Vietnam War was being ramped up. The initiatives included a “War on Poverty,” creation of Medicare and Medicaid, the launch of the Head Start program, urban renewal and passage of the Motor Vehicle Air and Pollution Control Act. When these programs were unveiled in the mid-1960s, the federal budget was close to balance and interest rates and inflation were low. Thereafter, federal spending rose by 50 percent in the second half of the decade owing to the expansion in social programs and costs incurred in fighting the Vietnam War. Because tax rates then were substantially higher than today (with the top marginal tax rate for households at 70 percent) the increase in the federal budget deficit did not rise above 3 percent of GDP. Nonetheless, consumer price inflation, which was only 1 percent at the beginning of the 1960s, rose steadily in the second half and approached 6 percent in 1970. The principal reason was the Fed was slow to raise interest rates and inflation expectations increased. The situation culminated with the first U.S. dollar devaluation in December 1971 that was the precursor of the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.

 Chris Wallace calls out Larry Kudlow's hypocrisy regarding nation's deficit - A debate over the GOP’s stance on the national deficit played out in real time on Fox News Friday as host Chris Wallace called out former White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow over his criticism of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package. Kudlow had torn into Biden’s legislation, warning it would “kill the economy” over what he said would be an inevitable rise in the national deficit. “Larry Kudlow, when he was working in the Trump White House and passing huge tax cuts and huge spending plans — including multi-trillion-dollar bills for COVID relief — there wasn’t so much concern about deficit and debt,” Wallace said Friday. “He seems to have found religion — now that he’s back out of the government.” The rebuke was the latest indication of an intraparty feud over how much to prioritize the deficit. Republicans supported big spending measures during the Trump administration, which helped fuel a rise in the deficit, which increased by about 36 percent during his administration. However, lawmakers have indicated that they will oppose plans under Biden out of concerns for the deficit. That effort was put into action for the first time as the White House pushed its coronavirus relief package. “I think that’s kind of getting back to our DNA. ... I think spending, entitlement reform, growth and the economy are all things that we’re going to have to be focused on next year, and, yeah, I would expect you’ll hear a lot more about that,” Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, said in November.

America cannot afford to have the defense budget at the same levels - If press reports are to be believed, the Biden administration plans to hold the defense budget flat for the coming fiscal year, maintaining it at the 2021 level. That would be a mistake with serious consequences. A frozen defense budget will not satisfy the needs for the military to counter threats ranging from an emboldened China, a revanchist Russia, and perpetual bad actors such as North Korea and Iran. Asked to assess our national defense strategy, a commission of bipartisan experts, which included President Biden’s current deputy defense secretary, recently warned that the defense budget will need to grow at an average of 3 percent to 5 percent annually above inflation for our nation to project power and uphold our alliance commitments. Defense experts have since reinforced this need, testifying that this modest budget growth is necessary to perform three important tasks at once: prepare the force for the future, maintain the improved levels of readiness, and recapitalize and grow the force. Because of the diminished state of our military, despite efforts during the Trump administration to rebuild, and the unsettling actions of our potential adversaries, the United States does not have the luxury to pick and choose which of these tasks it wants to accomplish. It must work toward all three at once. But fixing current readiness is only part of the problem. America’s military finds itself both too small and too antiquated to deal with the threats now looming just over the horizon. The Navy is the smallest it has been since World War II, the Air Force’s average aircraft age is 30 years-old, and the Army’s primary equipment dates from back to the Reagan era. Although low, inflation inexorably eats away at the defense budget. The Pentagonprojects that in the next four years pay raises, combined with health care costs and fuel, will result in an annual loss of more than 2 percent in purchasing power.Thus, a “flat” budget held at the same level as last year will require the Pentagon to cut more than 2 percent, or about $15 billion, from somewhere else in its budget to find resources to pay for these increased costs. This comes at a time when the Pentagon is pressed to prepare for new, more challenging mission sets, to modernize our nuclear deterrent, and to refocus on China.

 Pentagon asks to double Pacific budget as top admiral says US must prepare to “fight” China - The US military has asked Congress to double its budget in the Pacific as part of an unprecedented military buildup aimed at China. The Pentagon submitted the request as part of its so-called “Pacific Deterrence Initiative” centered around fielding a “network of precision-strike missiles” in Taiwan and Japan targeting China, with the capability to “sustain combat operations for extended periods.” In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, Navy Adm. Philip Davidson, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, made it clear that the military buildup is aimed not only at threatening China but in fighting a war. “We absolutely must be prepared to fight and win should competition turn to conflict,” Davidson said. In a striking statement of the imminence of a conflict between two of the world’s leading nuclear powers, Davidson made clear that the timetable for a major conflict is not in decades, but in years. “I worry that they’re accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they’ve long said that they want to do that by 2050. I’m worried about them moving that target closer,” he continued. “Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.” Last week, Davidson echoed his remarks at the American Enterprise Institute, where the admiral stressed that “the period between now and 2026, this decade, is the time horizon in which China is positioned to achieve overmatch in its capability, and when Beijing could, ‘could,’ widely choose to forcibly change the status quo in the region.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken also last week singled out China as the singular US adversary. “Several countries present us with serious challenges," he said, "including Russia, Iran, North Korea… but the challenge posed by China is different. China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to challenge the United States." The Pentagon’s plans for a military buildup in the Pacific make clear the content of Blinkin’s words. The response of the United States to China’s growing economic weight is the threat of military aggression. The US missile buildup in the Pacific follows Washington’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, the most significant nuclear arms reduction treaty of the 20th century.

 Time running out for serious nuclear diplomacy with Iran, former U.S. energy secretary says -- Time is running out for the United States to engage in meaningful diplomacy with Iran and elections set for June could put nuclear talks on "hiatus," according to former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. "There's probably just about 10 weeks left for some serious diplomacy," Moniz told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Thursday. Moniz served as energy secretary during President Obama's second term and played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal. "There's a pretty short fuse here to get something done before the Iranian elections will naturally call for a bit of a reset," said Moniz, who now serves as co-chair and CEO of the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative. The Islamic Republic is scheduled to hold a presidential election to determine the successor to Hassan Rouhani in June. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, another key architect in the 2015 nuclear deal, will also finish his term. Analysts say hardliners, or principlists, are most likely to take over, likely complicating already frayed nuclear talks with the United States. "I would expect a hiatus while the new Iranian administration gets organized," Moniz added. The U.S.'s Iran envoy, Rob Malley, told Axios on Wednesday that Iran's elections "are not a factor" in the Biden administration's decision-making for how to proceed with nuclear talks. Washington has made clear to Iran that it is ready to engage to "discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran's nuclear program" but Iranian leaders have taken a firm approach, saying they will not meet until the U.S. provides some form of sanctions relief. Despite Biden's promise for a swift return to the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, the timeline is anyone's guess. Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, sees these comments as primarily geared toward a domestic U.S. audience. "The Biden strategy is one where they don't want to be seen as being held hostage to Iranian timelines," she told CNBC, describing Malley's comments as "really directed toward U.S. opponents to the JCPOA and trying to signal that they intend to take a tougher approach. But it doesn't mean that they are not going to be mindful of the potential political transitions inside Iran."

Bill would block Biden from delisting Cuba as state sponsor of terrorism - Lawmakers are seeking to block President Biden from reversing the Trump administration’s last-minute decision to list Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Legislation from GOP Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Rick Scott (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) would bar Biden or Secretary of State Antony Blinken from removing the designation former President Obama first lifted five years ago. The State Department added Cuba to the state sponsored terrorism list in Trump's last 10 days in office, with then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arguing it would help with “denying the Castro regime the resources it uses to oppress its people at home, and countering its malign interference in Venezuela and the rest of the Western Hemisphere.” Though critics widely panned the move as a trumped-up claim designed to complicate Biden’s path forward with Cuba, the Biden administration has thus far not begun the process of removing Cuba from the list. “A Cuba policy shift is not currently among President Biden’s top priorities, but we are committed to making human rights a core pillar of our U.S. policy, and we’re committed to carefully reviewing policy decisions made in the prior administration, including the decision to designate Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this week. Under the legislation, the U.S. couldn’t remove Cuba from the list until it releases political prisoners and holds democratic elections. “The Trump Administration was right to reverse President Obama’s removal of the Cuban regime as a State Sponsor of Terrorism,” Rubio said in a release. “Under this new administration, we must ensure the meaningful actions to hold the despotic Castro and Díaz-Canel regime accountable remain in place.” The designation makes Cuba one of just four countries on the list, along with Iran, North Korea and Syria and includes “restrictions on U.S. foreign assistance; a ban on defense exports and sales; certain controls over exports...and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions,” according to the State Department.  The same trio of lawmakers has been vocal early in the new administration about any easing of U.S. policy toward Cuba. “We write to inform you of our objection to any motions or consent requests with regard to any legislation that seeks to amend our nation’s policy towards Cuba,” they wrote in a letter to Senate leaders of both parties. “Given the importance of this issue to our constituents, many of whom were forced to flee the regime’s brutality and repression, the U.S. Congress cannot turn a blind eye to the plight of the Cuban people," they wrote. "Any efforts to weaken U.S. law would only finance the Cuban military and support their corrupt and oppressive policies.”

White House plans PR blitz to sell coronavirus relief bill -The White House is mounting an all-out push to sell President Biden’s newly signed coronavirus relief bill to the public, starting with trips to multiple states in the coming week. A key facet of the strategy will be to highlight components of the measure that impact Americans directly, such as the $1,400 stimulus payments. The White House is also trying to underscore the broad bipartisan support among voters for the legislation, even though it received no votes from Republican lawmakers, who consistently called the $1.9 trillion package partisan and too expensive. Administration officials say Democrats fell short during the Obama era of selling the 2009 economic recovery bill. Whether Democrats can maintain popularity for the newly enacted COVID-19 relief bill will play a key role in determining the party’s fortunes in the 2022 election. The public relations push coincides with an effort by the administration to get financial assistance out the door as quickly as possible. The White House says eligible Americans will begin receiving direct payments this weekend, though other stimulus funds are expected to take longer to allocate. “It’s one thing to pass the American Rescue Plan. It’s going to be another thing to implement it. It’s going to require fastidious oversight to make sure there is no waste or fraud and the law does what it’s designed to do,” Biden said at a Rose Garden event Friday. “We have to get this right. Details matter. Because we have to continue to build confidence in the American people that their government can function for them and deliver,” he said. The trips across the country — many of them targeting swing states — are the center point of the White House’s campaign to highlight the tangible deliverables of the American Rescue Plan Act, including the $1,400 direct payments going to the majority of Americans and funding for vaccine distribution and school reopenings. “I think the biggest thing is it raises awareness for what specifically is in the legislation, what people are likely to get in an individual and family case and ultimately to connect the legislation to that assistance,” said Robert Gibbs, who served as White House press secretary during the Obama administration. “That will hopefully build some long-term political capital for the Biden administration.” Next week, Biden will host an event at the White House on implementation of the rescue plan before traveling to Pennsylvania and Georgia as part of what the White House has branded the “Help is Here” tour. Vice President Harris will travel with her husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, to Nevada and Colorado, while first lady Jill Biden will travel to New Jersey and New Hampshire. More trips could be announced in the coming days. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who was a Democratic candidate for president in 2020 before Biden won the nomination, is scheduled to travel to Landover, Md., to tour a UPS distribution center being used to deliver vaccines.

Democrats urge IRS to help unemployment recipients use tax break --A group of about 20 House and Senate Democrats are urging the Treasury Department and IRS to "take every effort" to ensure that recipients of unemployment compensation can use a tax exemption included in the coronavirus relief law that President Biden signed Thursday. "We recognize the challenges of implementing this change in tax law during filing season, particularly as millions of Americans have already filed their tax returns for 2020," the lawmakers wrote in a letter sent Friday to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig. "This underscores the need for Treasury and the IRS to take every action to ensure that all eligible individuals, including those who have already filed their 2020 tax return, are aware of and able to receive this critical relief." Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief law includes a provision that makes tax-free the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits that people with income under $150,000 received in 2020. The provision was based on stand-alone legislation introduced by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), who took the lead on the letter. The tax exemption for some unemployment benefits has implications for the tax returns that people are filing this year. According to the letter, it could reduce tax bills for those who are unemployed by more than $1,000. The lawmakers urged Treasury and the IRS to determine whether it would be feasible to automatically make adjustments and issue refunds to unemployment recipients who have already filed their 2020 tax returns, so that taxpayers would not need to file amended returns. The lawmakers said that if such adjustments are infeasible, Treasury and the IRS should "provide clear, accessible information to ensure eligible taxpayers who have already filed for 2020 can file an amended return as quickly and easily as possible." "Treasury and the IRS should conduct a robust public awareness campaign to ensure that individuals who received unemployment benefits in 2020 are aware of this tax exclusion and understand the actions that need to be taken to receive it," the lawmakers wrote. "This may be especially important for those who could be eligible for a larger Earned Income Tax Credit or Child Tax Credit with this exclusion, or are newly eligible for these credits." In addition to Durbin and Axne, signers of the letter included Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

Top Republican: IRS should 'seriously consider' extending tax-filing deadline  -Rep. Kevin Brady (Texas), the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, said Friday that the IRS should "seriously consider" extending the tax-filing deadline. Brady said the IRS has a large workload. The agency has a backlog of paper tax returns from last year that still haven't been processed, has to issue a new round of direct payments and has to implement tax changes that have been made to help businesses stay afloat during the pandemic, he noted. "They are trying to make changes to accommodate that overwhelming work responsibility right now," Brady said on a call with reporters. "I'd be very open to extending that tax-filing deadline. I think it could be helpful." Brady's comments come after other lawmakers and tax preparers have urged the IRS to extend the filing deadline. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.), the chairman of the panel's oversight subcommittee, called for an extension earlier in the week. They said taxpayers will have questions about a provision in President Biden's coronavirus relief law that provides a tax exemption for up to $10,200 in unemployment compensation that people received in 2020. They also noted fewer tax returns have been filed so far this year, compared to the same time last year. The IRS started this year's filing season a couple of weeks later than usual, but the deadline remains April 15 in most states. The IRS has extended the filing deadline to June 15 in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana because of winter storms. People in other states can request six-month extensions, which is typical. Last year, the agency extended the filing deadline to July 15 because of the pandemic. But so far, the IRS has said it doesn't plan to follow suit this year. IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said last month that an extension would back up the agency and cause confusion for taxpayers. 

Democrats face fresh headaches after relief bill win---Democrats are facing looming challenges as they plot their next legislative step, threatening to cut short a victory lap over the coronavirus relief bill. The days-long debate on the $1.9 trillion package provided the first glimpse of battle lines in the Biden era and the 50-50 Senate, where Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will need to spend the next two years trying to make good on big promises with the slimmest of majorities. But it also underscored the chaotic nature of a narrowly divided Senate, where any one Democrat can have an outsize influence and Republicans, who unified against the relief bill, are still needed to pass most bills, for now. “In a 50-50 Senate, if any one member changes their mind on an amendment or vote or issue, it can change the outcome,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). That point was driven home Friday during a nearly 12-hour pause that put an uncomfortable spotlight on Democrats’ internal scramble that tested Schumer’s ability to get Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) back on board by making changes without losing progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Schumer spent four years as minority leader, keeping his caucus united against ObamaCare repeal efforts and the 2017 GOP tax bill. But the relief package was his first big legislative test as majority leader, and a preview of the competing factions within the caucus. “It's important that he be able to hold us together as a caucus. Even with, you know, all night, many votes, that sort of thing,” Coons said. Democrats weren’t the only ones keeping a close eye on how the coronavirus fight played out, trying to read the tea leaves on what to expect from Schumer and President Biden with other legislative fights on the horizon. “We learned a lot too about dealing with their side and some of the members on their side who suggested they might be inclined to be with us on some things,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D). “I think it’s indicative of what we’ll be looking at in the future.” Thune — noting that Republicans were in talks with Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and others — added that narrowly divided Senates are difficult because “every man is a king and every woman is a queen.” Democrats were helped by a unified belief within the caucus, as well as broad support from the American public, that more aid was needed to combat the coronavirus. Schumer has been publicly wary of repeating what he views as the party’s mistake in going too small with stimulus during the Great Recession, pledging early on that while Democrats wanted to get GOP support this time around they weren’t going to water down the bill to win over Republicans. “I feel good about the long-range here. I feel good about moving on to new victories,” Schumer told reporters, adding that the “secret to the success” was “every person realizing that we needed every other person to have this victory.” But that pledge for unity will soon encounter immediate tests, with the 60-vote legislative filibuster still intact and infrastructure, the next big priority for Democrats, already sparking signs of divisions. Manchin is signaling he’s wary of using reconciliation — the budget process that lets the majority party bypass the Senate filibuster — to pass an infrastructure and climate package without making a concerted effort to involve Republicans.

‘We Must Deliver on This Issue’: Jayapal Vows to Fight for $15 Minimum Wage -The Congressional Progressive Caucus on Saturday welcomed the passage in the Senate of the coronavirus relief bill—calling it “a truly progressive and bold package”—but lamented that it did not include a proposed provision to boost the federal minimum wage and vowed to “continue our pressure on the Senate to pass $15.”“The minimum wage remains essential policy and we must deliver on this issue,” CPC chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said in a statement.“We call on the president to lay out his plan in the coming days for providing a desperately needed raise for 32 million Americans,” said Jayapal.The Democratic congresswoman’s statement came after the Senate’s 50-49 vote along party lines to pass the $1.9 American Rescue Plan following a marathon session. The bill provides one-time $1,400 checks to most Americans, an extension of unemployment benefits, and an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC), among other relief measures.Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) caused hours of delay after bucking his own party on a proposal for unemployment benefits, with that opposition leading to a less generous compromise provision. Manchin was also among a small handful of Democrats who voted last week against Sen. Bernie Sanders’ effort to reattach a $15 wage provision to the bill.Sanders (I-Vt.), the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, forced a vote on the wage boost provision last week after the Senate parliamentarian said it violated rules regarding a reconciliation bill. The reconciliation process allowed the Senate to pass the relief bill with a simple majority.

Expanded ObamaCare subsidies will become available April 1, Biden officials say --Additional financial assistance to help ObamaCare enrollees afford their health insurance premiums will become available starting April 1, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Friday. The additional subsidies are part of the American Rescue Plan that President Biden signed into law Thursday. The extra financial assistance will help lower premium costs for millions of ObamaCare enrollees. Premiums will now be capped at the maximum of 8.5 percent of income, down from about 10 percent. People who make more than 400 percent of the federal poverty level, about $100,000 for a family of four, will become eligible for financial assistance for the first time, helping prevent them from having to pay full freight for their plans. About 80 percent of people will be able to find plans for $10 or less after subsidies, up from 69 percent before the American Rescue Plan, the administration said. Still, there are some daunting logistical challenges for the implementation of the new changes. People who already have ObamaCare coverage this year will need to go back to healthcare.gov after April 1 and update their applications to be able to get the additional financial help. If people do not update their applications, they will need to wait until next spring when they file their taxes to be able to get the extra money. Under the additional sign-up period opened by Biden, uninsured people have until May 15 to sign up for coverage, and existing enrollees can also change their plans before that date. The administration estimates 3.6 million people who are currently uninsured will become eligible for financial assistance under the American Rescue Plan's changes, and another 9.5 million uninsured people will be eligible for additional help.

White House faces challenge overcoming GOP vaccine hesitancy --President Biden cautioned in his prime-time address Thursday that it would take a united front among all Americans to defeat the coronavirus pandemic, but the White House is finding it may face an uphill battle convincing those on the other side of the aisle to get vaccinated. Public polling has shown Republicans are less likely to get the coronavirus vaccine than Democrats. A PBS Newshour/NPR/Marist poll released Thursday found 41 percent of Republicans said they would not get the shot, and a CBS News poll released late last month found 34 percent of Republicans said they will not be vaccinated for COVID-19. The disparity presents a serious problem for a Democratic administration coming out of a contentious election season, mainly because Biden, Vice President Harris, former President Obama and other high profile Democrats are unlikely to persuade enough conservatives to get the shot. “We recognize as a Democratic administration with a Democratic president that we may not be the most effective messenger to communicate with hardcore supporters of the former president, and we have to be clear-eyed about that,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday. The White House has looked to business groups and religious organizations to urge their constituencies to get the shot when it’s their turn. Personal physicians will play a key role, and entertainers and athletes popular with different demographics could help overcome vaccine hesitancy, experts said. The National Rural Health Association, the National Farmers Union and the Rural Broadband Association are among the groups the White House has leaned on to reach more traditionally conservative areas of the country, where vaccine access will also be critical. Francis Collins, head of the National Institutes of Health, has appeared on Christian Broadcasting Network. Andy Slavitt, a senior adviser to the White House on the pandemic, has appeared on Fox News and Hugh Hewitt’s radio show in recent weeks in a bid to use conservative media to update the public on vaccination efforts. During his Fox hit on Thursday, Slavitt made a point to credit the Trump administration with laying the foundation for the state of the vaccine rollout. “I do think it’s incumbent upon the Biden administration to ask conservatives to help get white conservatives vaccinated. And I do think there are people in the Biden administration who want to do that,” said Joe Grogan, who served as head of the Domestic Policy Council during the Trump administration and now works with the bipartisan COVID Collaborative, a group working with state and local officials to combat the pandemic. Experts said it may be too soon to tell which groups are truly the most reluctant to get the shot until there is enough supply to meet demand for the vaccine. “It’s hard to talk about it in a way because right now it’s really a supply problem, but at some point in the foreseeable future it will become a demand problem,”

DeSantis to Biden: Thought of reinstating COVID-19 restrictions 'insane' - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Friday blasted President Biden's warning that the U.S. could need to reinstate certain coronavirus restrictions if the public does not stay "vigilant" about defeating COVID-19. "To even contemplate doing any type of lockdown, honestly it's insane," DeSantis said during a press conference in Florida, touting the state's efforts to administer vaccines to the elderly and other populations. "That's not gonna happen in the state of Florida," the governor continued, referring to reinstating restrictions. "We're gonna continue doing what works, but under no circumstances would we entertain anything of the sort." Biden has repeatedly vowed to not lock down the country but warned in a prime-time address Thursday night that some restrictions may have to be revisited if current downward trends change and the virus resurges. He emphasized, though, that his administration is focused on helping the nation return to normal. “Even if we devote every resource we have, beating this virus and getting back to normal depends on national unity,” Biden said. “And national unity isn’t just how politics and politicians vote in Washington, what the loudest voices say on cable or online. Unity is what we do as fellow Americans. Because if we don’t say vigilant and the conditions change, then we may have to reinstate restrictions to get back on track.” "And, please, we don’t want to do that again," he added.

U.S. Supreme Court scraps arguments in Medicaid work case (Reuters) - At the request of President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday canceled an upcoming oral argument on a policy introduced under his predecessor Donald Trump backing work requirements for people who receive healthcare under the Medicaid program for the poor. The court granted a request made by Acting Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar on Feb. 22, who said the new administration has started the process of reversing the previous policy. The oral argument concerning pilot programs adopted by the states of Arkansas and New Hampshire had been scheduled for March 29. Under Trump, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in 2018 approved the pilot projects in those two states as part of a push to put a conservative stamp on Medicaid, a program that was expanded under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, to provide medical coverage to millions more Americans. Biden, a Democrat, succeeded Trump, a Republican, on Jan. 20. Under Biden, HHS made a preliminary finding that work requirements would be inconsistent with the objectives of Medicaid, which provides medical insurance for the poor, Prelogar told the court. Biden’s Justice Department has reversed course in several cases originally filed by the Trump administration. In response to one such shift, the court on Tuesday dismissed an upcoming case on Trump’s policy barring immigrants deemed likely to need government benefits from legal permanent residency. The Supreme Court on Feb. 3 canceled oral arguments in two other cases after Biden’s administration changed course from Trump policies. Both were appeals by Trump’s administration - one defending his funding of the U.S.-Mexico border wall and the other defending his so-called “remain in Mexico” asylum policy. 

Booker to try to make child tax credit expansion permanent -Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said he'll work to make permanent the temporary expansion to child tax credits that were signed into law as part of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. Booker said at a press conference Friday that he’s been in touch with White House officials and business leaders on the effort. The stimulus package, which Biden signed into law Thursday, temporarily boosts the Child Tax Credit to up to $3,600 per child for children under the age of six and $3,000 for minors between the ages of 6 and 17, and makes them available in monthly increments. “I've tried to help coordinate a full court press in America to make the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit changes permanent in the United States of America, so we can join our industrial peers and invest in America's children,” he said. Booker has long been a supporter of boosting the tax credit to reduce child poverty. During his 2020 presidential campaign, Booker released a plan that he said would cut childhood poverty from nearly 15 percent to 5 percent. The plan called for a “childhood allowance” for families with kids, expanding on the current Child Tax Credit and authorizing a monthly payment program to give families a $300 monthly allowance for younger kids and a $250 monthly allowance for older kids up to age 18. However, it is unclear what kind of support there would be for such a plan in both chambers of Congress given that the stimulus package in which the temporary tax credit boost was contained narrowly passed both chambers along party lines.

Congress must permanently extend postpartum Medicaid coverage  -In the hours, days and weeks after childbirth, women should be bonding with their newborns and watching them thrive and grow. Yet the United States is one of the most dangerous developed nations in the world in which to give birth, despite our world class health system and our high per capita spending on health care. Seven hundred women die in the United States each year from causes related to pregnancy, and around 50,000 suffer from severe complications, like heart attack, kidney failure and shock, that can impact their health and even disable them for months. One in 5 women are affected by anxiety, depression and other maternal mental health conditions during and the year following pregnancy.And some women have more to fear. Black and American Indian/Alaska Native women are 2-3 times more likely to die from pregnancy related complications compared to White women.We can prevent most pregnancy-related deaths by ensuring women have continuous access to health care before, during and after pregnancy. Yet today, many of our most vulnerable moms spend most of the first year after childbirth — when they are still at risk of complications and even death — with no or unstable health care coverage. An important first step toward ending the maternal health crisis is this: Congress must pass legislation that permanently extends Medicaid coverage through the first year after a woman welcomes her child into the world.Nearly half of all U.S. births are paid for by Medicaid, and Congress has taken a positive step in the right direction by passing the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which includes an option for states to extend postpartum coverage from 60 days to 12 months. It is a huge improvement. Some states, like Illinois, Missouri and New Jersey, are already working to provide coverage to low-income women for a year after birth, and the new option will make it easier for states to ensure women can benefit from continuous coverage.But the provision is not enough, and it will only last five years. Bolder action is needed at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic isdisproportionately impacting Black, Latino and Native Americans, and thematernal mortality rate of Black women is abysmal.Making this policy mandatory on a permanent basis is a matter of urgent health equity, and a matter of science. Congress established 60 days of post-birth Medicaid coverage for pregnant women 35 years ago, and since then the number of women per 100,000 who die related to pregnancy has more than doubled. At the same time, today we know much more than we did in 1986 about the importance of continuous health care coverage and care before, during and after pregnancy.

 U.S. Postmaster acknowledges 'extreme delays' in some mail, says USPS needs big changes (Reuters) - U.S. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy told lawmakers on Thursday that there are still “extreme delays” in some mail deliveries and that a 10-year strategic plan will revise existing service standards. The U.S. Postal Service faces a $160 billion projected loss over the next decade and is looking to cut costs as it faces shrinking first-class mail volumes. DeJoy told a hearing of the House of Representatives Appropriations subcommittee that the reorganization would keep existing six-day delivery and would not close rural or small post offices. But he acknowledged service standards will be relaxed as part of the plan. The current standards are “not achievable,” DeJoy said. “We cannot go to California from New York in three days without going on planes and we don’t own planes.” Last week, USPS said it was offering early retirement to thousands of non-union employees as it consolidates postal districts in an effort to stem billions in red ink. “We have a broken business model and changes need to happen,” DeJoy said. “Our network is in bad shape ... We need to make some big changes.” Last month, DeJoy said the U.S. mail system is losing $10 billion a year and urgently needs reform and legislative relief. “I would suggest that we are on a death spiral,” DeJoy said. ADVERTISEMENT

House lawmakers push Biden administration to investigate USPS contract with Oshkosh Defense - House Democrats called on the Biden administration Tuesday to halt the U.S. Postal Service's $482 million contract with Oshkosh Defense to help modernize the service's aging fleet of delivery trucks until an investigation can prove there was no "inappropriate political influence" in the award.Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan of Ohio and Jared Huffman of California introduced a resolution that would place a hold on the contract until an investigation is conducted. Kaptur said in a statement that the probe would also determine whether the contract is "consistent with the President's Executive Order to electrify the federal fleet."The USPS announced on Feb. 23 that it awarded the first part of the 10-year, multibillion-dollar contract to update the postal delivery vehicle fleet to Oshkosh Defense. Shares of Workhorse Group, an Ohio-based electric-vehicle company that was competing for the contract, dropped by nearly 50% the next day and have barely recovered since then. The shares jumped by almost 8% on Tuesday, closing at $16.35.Under the contract, Oshkosh would, over the next decade, manufacture up to 165,000 postal vehicles, roughly a third of the federal government's fleet, according to the announcement. However, USPS chief Louis DeJoy recently told lawmakers that only 10% of the new fleet would be electric, which "would be inconsistent" with President Joe Biden's efforts to electrify the entire federal fleet, the lawmakers said.According to the statement, lawmakers are also concerned about reports of "suspicious" stock trades that were placed just hours before DeJoy announced the deal."Ten percent makes no sense and flies in the face of President Biden's recent order to electrify the federal fleet," said Kaptur, who chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and co-chairs the House Auto Caucus.

Number of migrant children in U.S. border facilities soars amid growing crisis (Reuters) - More than 3,600 migrant children were being held in U.S. border facilities as of Thursday morning, a U.S. official told Reuters, more than four times the number in late February, a sign of a growing humanitarian and political crisis for President Joe Biden’s new administration. The number of mostly Central American unaccompanied children arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border has risen rapidly in recent weeks, with more children stuck in border patrol stations while they await transfers to increasingly crowded federal shelters and eventual release to parents or other sponsors. The border stations were built to house adult men for short periods and could pose a COVID-19 health risk to children and staff if they grow overcrowded. Last week, U.S. health officials lifted coronavirus-related capacity restrictions on shelters for unaccompanied minors to alleviate the housing crunch, but beds have been filling up quickly. Biden, a Democrat who took office seven weeks ago, pledged to undo many of the restrictive policies of former President Donald Trump, a Republican. In February he began allowing unaccompanied minors arriving at the border to enter the country. They had previously been sent back to Mexico or rapidly deported under a Trump-era order known as Title 42. Republicans have savaged Biden for rolling back Trump’s hardline policies, saying his administration has encouraged illegal immigration. At the same time, Democrats have criticized Biden for keeping some Trump policies and for reopening an emergency shelter in Texas that was used under Trump. The arrivals resemble previous surges of unaccompanied minors and families in 2014 and 2019, according to officials and experts. The roughly 3,600 children in U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) custody is up from around 800 on Feb. 22. CBP did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Biden administration detaining thousands of migrant youth in appalling Border Patrol cells - The Biden administration’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is detaining the largest number of unaccompanied migrant children in the agency’s history, and 1,400 of them are being held beyond the three-day legal limit. CBS News reported that it had obtained government documents showing more than 3,200 migrant children were being held in appalling jail-like cells at Border Patrol stations, and at least 170 of these youth are under the age of thirteen. Under US immigration law, CBP is obligated to transfer children to shelters operated by the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) of the Department of Health and Human Services within 72 hours of taking them into custody. However, an unprecedented number of unaccompanied children arriving at the US-Mexico border has overwhelmed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) infrastructure and led to a massive backlog of minors being held in facilities that were set up for the purpose of detaining adult men. The number of minors being apprehended at the border is currently estimated at three times greater than what it was just a few weeks ago. CBS News noted the facilities the youth are being detained in have been described as “dog kennels” and “ice boxes” by migrants. Children are also being held in a “soft-sided” detention center in southern Texas which is designed for short-term detention. The New York Times reported that “people familiar with the agency’s latest data” said there were nearly 100,000 migrants apprehended at the border in the month of February and an additional 19,000 “adults and children” had been detained by border agents since March 1. According to the Times, the surge of workers and children arriving in the US is a result of a combination of people fleeing poverty and violence in Central America, the devastation caused by the recent hurricane season and an expectation that the Biden administration would reverse the Trump administration’s war against immigrants. The crisis is exacerbated by measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in which the ORR reduced its bed capacity from 13,000 to 8,000 last year. However, on Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) authorized the department to return bed space back to pre-pandemic levels, citing “extraordinary circumstances,” according to a government memo obtained by CBS News.

Biden to rescind Trump order on processing young migrants --The Biden administration is scrapping a Trump-era policy that connected immigration enforcement with efforts to find U.S.-based family members to house children who crossed the Southern border. The news comes as the U.S. has a record 3,500 children sitting in Customs and Border Protection (CBP) custody as of earlier this week, according to multiple reports, and as another 8,500 have been housed while awaiting placement with relatives or sponsors. The 2018 agreement allowed data sharing between the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which is charged for caring with children taken into custody after crossing the border. Administration officials said the move was designed to stem the “chilling effect” that left sponsors in fear of coming forward to house children lest they be deported themselves. “There will not be immigration consequences for coming forward and taking care of these kids,” an administration official said on a call with reporters. “We are a child care agency, we are not an immigration enforcement agency,” another official added, referring to the role HHS plays in the immigration system. “This makes it really clear that this administration prioritizes uniting a child with their family member or sponsor.” Parts of the memorandum had already been rescinded either through government directives or legal challenges, making the move at least partly symbolic. Still, administration officials maintained it would have a meaningful effect as the government seeks to expedite the process of identifying and vetting potential sponsors for children being held at the border. The announcement came as Biden officials largely doubled down on their messaging of recent weeks about the growing challenge at the southern border, where thousands of migrants are crossing each week and thousands of children are being held in Border Patrol facilities.HHS is working to add hundreds of beds each week to accommodate the surge in migration. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Tuesday that the administration is looking at new facilities to house the unaccompanied children, but would not specify where.

 Livid Trump Blasts "Our Country Is Being Destroyed At The Southern Border" - A livid President Trump issued a statement Tuesday lamenting that the country is “being destroyed” by the Biden administration’s actions at the border, as the crisis further spirals out of control.Border crossings have surged after Biden promised mass amnesty, began allowing unaccompanied migrant children into the US again, and reversed Trump’s ‘remain in Mexico’ policy.Video is emerging every day of hundreds of migrants walking into the US, while cities in Arizona and Texas warn that they are becoming overwhelmed, and warning of the complete lack of effort to test for or prevent the spread of COVID:Border patrol is reported to have arrested around 100,000 migrants attempting to illegally cross the border in February alone.  Trump’s statement read “When I was President, our Southern border was in great shape – stronger, safer, and more secure than ever before.”“We ended Catch-and-Release, shut down asylum fraud, and crippled the vicious smugglers, drug dealers, and human traffickers,” Trump continued, adding “The Wall, despite horrendous Democratic delays, would have easily been finished by now.” Commenting on the current situation, Trump proclaimed “Our country is being destroyed at the Southern border, a terrible thing to see!”  There are now a record number of migrant children being kept in Border Patrol ‘cages’, which the migrants themselves are calling “dog kennels” and “ice boxes” according to reports.CBS News reports that there are more than 3,200 unaccompanied minors in the facilities, with almost half being held beyond the legal three-day limit.

H.R.1 (the “For the People Act”) Legitimizes WaPo’s McCarthy-ite PropOrNot “Reporting,” Institutionalizes Ballot Marking Devices, and Cripples Minor Parties -  Lambert Strether - H.R.1 (the “For the People Act“) is the enormous election law reform bill just passed by the House and sent to the Senate. (The PDF has 791 pages.) Black Agenda Report describes the 2019 version as “a sleazy ghetto ice cream truckload of empty promises.” Associated Press uses more measured language:  House Resolution 1, which touches on virtually every aspect of the electoral process, was approved on a near party-line 220-210 vote. It would restrict partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts, strike down hurdles to voting and bring transparency to a murky campaign finance system that allows wealthy donors to anonymously bankroll political causes.This bill “will put a stop at the voter suppression that we’re seeing debated right now,” said Rep. Nikema Williams, a new congresswoman who represents the Georgia district that deceased voting rights champion John Lewis held for years. “This bill is the ‘Good Trouble’ he fought for his entire life.” To Republicans, however, it would give license to unwanted federal interference in states’ authority to conduct their own elections — ultimately benefiting Democrats through higher turnout, most notably among minorities. Here is a guide to the Bill from the Brennan Center; is a conservative assault on the bill from the National Review; and a list of bullet points from Daily Kos:

• Establish automatic voter registration at an array of state agencies;
• Establish same-day voter registration;
• Allow online voter registration;
• Allow 16- and 17-year-olds to pre-register so they’ll be on the rolls when they turn 18;
• Allow state colleges and universities to serve as registration agencies;
• Ban states from purging eligible voters’ registration simply for infrequent voting;
• Establish two weeks of in-person early voting, including availability on Sundays and outside of normal business hours;
• Standardize hours within states for opening and closing polling places on Election Day, with exceptions to let cities set longer hours in municipal races;
• Require paper ballots filled by hand or machines that use them as official records and let voters verify their choices;
• Grant funds to states to upgrade their election security infrastructure;
• Provide prepaid postage on mail ballots;
• Allow voters to turn in their mail ballot in person if they choose;
• Allow voters to track their absentee mail ballots;
• Require states to establish nonpartisan redistricting commissions for congressional redistricting (possibly not until the 2030s round of redistricting);
• Establish nonpartisan redistricting criteria such as a partisan fairness provision that courts can enforce starting immediately no matter what institution is drawing the maps;
• End prison gerrymandering by counting prisoners at their last address (rather than where they’re incarcerated) for the purposes of redistricting;
• End felony disenfranchisement for those on parole, probation, or post-sentence, and require such citizens to be supplied with registration forms and informed their voting rights have been restored;
• Provide public financing for House campaigns in the form of matching small donations at a six-for-one rate;
• Expand campaign finance disclosure requirements to mitigate Citizens United;
• Ban corporations from spending for campaign purposes unless the corporation has established a process for determining the political will of its shareholders; and
• Make it a crime to mislead voters with the intention of preventing them from voting.

Jayapal Demands Investigation Into 3 House Republicans for 'Involvement in the Deadly Attack on the Capitol'  - Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is demanding an investigation into three House Republicans to examine what she described as their "active roles" in provoking and aiding the deadly January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol.In six separate letters sent Wednesday to the House Ethics Committee and Office of Congressional Ethics, Jayapal (D-Wash.) called for probes into Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) to determine the extent of "their involvement in the deadly attack on the Capitol.""It is critical for the functioning of Congress—and therefore the functioning of our democracy—that this investigation is conducted," wrote Jayapal. "I urge the House Committee on Ethics and the Office of Congressional Ethics to thoroughly investigate Representatives Boebert, Brooks, and Gosar's conduct, and refer any appropriate findings to the Department of Justice."Jayapal's letters point to specific conduct by the three House Republicans—each of whom voted to overturn the results of the November election—that could constitute active assistance of the January 6 insurrection, over which former President Donald Trump was impeached.  "Five minutes after insurrectionists first breached the Capitol, Representative Boebert tweeted from inside the House chamber, 'We were locked in the House chambers' at 2:17 pm," Jayapal wrote (pdf), detailing just one of several examples. "She then tweeted a minute later, 'Speaker has been removed from the chambers.' She was one of only two members, the other being Representative Mo Brooks (Ala.), who tweeted the location of Speaker Nancy Pelosi." As the Washington Post reported days after the January attack, Reps. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) and John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) recounted that they both witnessed Boebert "with a 'large' group in a tunnel connected to the Capitol days before the attempted insurrection that left four rioters and one police officer dead.""We saw Boebert taking a group of people for a tour sometime after the 3rd and before the 6th," said Cohen. "Now, whether these people were people that were involved in the insurrection or not, I do not know."In an appearance on CNN late Wednesday, Jayapal said that while her letters offer evidence that's already public knowledge, "I think there's a lot of private evidence... that we haven't seen yet."

New York prosecutors investigating Trump Chicago skyscraper loan: report  The Manhattan District Attorney’s investigation into former President Trump’s finances has reportedly expanded, with prosecutors subpoenaing documents from an investment company that loaned the Trump Organization millions of dollars for its Chicago skyscraper.CNN, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that prosecutors issued a grand jury subpoena to Fortress Investment Management late last year as part of their probe into Trump’s finances. Fortress Investment previously issued the Trump Organization a $130 million loan for the construction of what would become Trump Tower Chicago, CNN noted.According to court filings cited by the network, Fortress by 2012 forgave more than $100 million of the original loan, which at that time totaled around $150 million, including interest and fees.The forgiveness was completed “to secure a partial re-payment of about $45 million at a time when the real estate market was suffering from the financial crisis,” CNN reported.Prosecutors are now reportedly zeroing in on how the Trump Organization handled the loan from Fortress. They are investigating whether or not Trump and the organization documented the forgiveness as income - which is required by the Internal Revenue Service - and paid taxes on the money, CNN reported, citing people familiar with the matter.The Trump Organization did not respond to CNN’s request for comment. CNN did note, however, that Alan Garten, the Trump Organization’s chief legal officer, told The New York Times last October that the company and Trump appropriately accounted for and paid all taxes due on forgiven debts. The Times, which obtained portions of Trump’s tax-return data last September, reported that his forgiven debts were recorded as canceled debts in his tax returns. According to the Times, Trump took advantage of a clause from the Great Recession bailout that “allowed income from canceled debt to be completely deferred for five years, then spread out evenly over the next five.”

Twitter sues Texas AG, alleging retaliation for banning Trump - Twitter is suing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), seeking to block his office from allegedly retaliating against the company for its decision to ban former President Trump from the platform. Politico first reported the lawsuit Monday evening, filed in northern California. The suit accuses Paxton of using the powers of his elected office to retaliate against the company over what it called a protected decision under the First Amendment. The Hill has reached out to the Texas attorney general for comment. “Paxton made clear that he will use the full weight of his office, including his expansive investigatory powers, to retaliate against Twitter for having made editorial decisions with which he disagrees,” Twitter attorneys said in court documents, according to Politico. “Twitter seeks to stop AG Paxton from unlawfully abusing his authority as the highest law-enforcement officer of the State of Texas to intimidate, harass, and target Twitter in retaliation for Twitter’s exercise of its First Amendment rights,” they continued, according to Politico. The suit hinges around Paxton's vow to investigate Twitter over its decision to ban Trump from the platform in the wake of the deadly breach of the U.S. Capitol in January. Paxton sent a civil investigative demand to the company asking for information about the ban in mid-January, The Texas Tribune reported. "A core part of Twitter’s mission is to protect freedom of expression and defend an Open Internet. We work every day to protect those interests for the people who use our service around the world. The First Amendment protects everyone’s right to free speech, including private businesses," a Twitter spokesperson told The Hill.

GOP lawmakers unveil Cuomo impeachment resolution -Republican members of the New York State Assembly will introduce a resolution to begin impeachment proceedings against Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). The Post-Standard in Syracuse reported that Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay (R) said that although his GOP colleagues cannot force the Democratic-controlled Assembly to take up the measure, they are “going to keep pounding on this issue.” A multitude of Democratic New York lawmakers have called on Cuomo to resign amid a scandal involving his office altering numbers having to do with nursing home deaths as well as accusations by multiple women of sexual harassment, including by his former aides. State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, both Democrats, called on Cuomo to resign on Sunday. "Every day there is another account that is drawing away from the business of government. We have allegations about sexual harassment, a toxic work environment, the loss of credibility surrounding the Covid-19 nursing home data and questions about the construction of a major infrastructure project," Stewart-Cousins said. "If they really believe in resignation, why not start impeachment?" said Barclay on Monday. "The real problem now is the governor has lost so much credibility and trust that we don’t feel like he can go forward and govern."

 Entire Staff of Nevada Democratic Party Quits After DSA Slate Won Every Seat -- NOT LONG AFTER Judith Whitmer won her election on Saturday to become chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, she got an email from the party’s executive director, Alana Mounce. The message from Mounce began with a note of congratulations, before getting to her main point. She was quitting. So was every other employee. And so were all the consultants. And the staff would be taking severance checks with them, thank you very much. On March 6, a coalition of progressive candidates backed by the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America took over the leadership of the Nevada Democratic Party, sweeping all five party leadership positions in a contested election that evening. Whitmer, who had been chair of the Clark County Democratic Party, was elected chair. The establishment had prepared for the loss, having recently moved $450,000 out of the party’s coffers and into the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s account. The DSCC will put the money toward the 2022 reelection bid of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a vulnerable first-term Democrat.While Whitmer’s opponents say she was planning to fire them anyway, Whitmer denies that claim. “I’ve been putting in the work,” Whitmer told The Intercept for the latest episode of Deconstructed. “What they just didn’t expect is that we got better and better at organizing and out-organizing them at every turn.”THE BATTLE BETWEEN the insurgent progressive wing of the party and what’s known in Nevada as the Reid machine — a tightly run operation still guided by former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid — began five years ago, when Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders organized support for his 2016 presidential primary run, while Reid was working behind the scenes to help his opponent, Hillary Clinton.Over the next four years, outside organizations like DSA exploded in size and strength. The Sanders campaign focused on organizing tens of thousands of young Latino voters in the state, with the goal of activating people whom the party hadn’t bothered with before. And it worked: In the 2020 cycle, after investing heavily in Nevada, Sanders won a commanding victory in the Nevada caucuses. When the Sanders campaign ended, the organizers behind it were ready to take their project to the next level. Progressive groups like the Clark County Left Caucus, of which Whitmer was chair, and local DSA chapters had been organizing for Sanders across Nevada since 2016. They used their momentum, and the state-level delegates they picked up during the caucuses, to continue activating progressive pockets in the state with a focus on local office. Progressives led by the Left Caucus won a majorityon the state Democratic board this summer, a sign that their momentum was growing even without a candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket to get behind.

Tucker Carlson swats back at 'woke generals' after criticism - Fox News host Tucker Carlson fired back at the Pentagon after a slate of military leaders berated him for comments he made about Defense Department changes meant to attract more female recruits. Carlson, who had bashed the changes, rebuked the “woke generals” for their criticism and said he and his supporters were not “rattled.” “We were almost rattled. Then we realized if the woke generals treat us like they’ve treated the Taliban, we’ll be fine. Twenty years later, the Taliban are still here. Maybe we ought to promise the Pentagon that we’ll get rid of traditional gender roles on this show. Change the pronouns, defeat the patriarchy, and all that,” Carlson said on his program Friday night. The response marks the latest salvo in a back-and-forth between Carlson and the Pentagon. The conservative host on Monday railed against President Biden’s promotions of two female generals and remarks touting new efforts to improve conditions for women in the military, including work to design maternity flight suits and updating grooming standards to allow for a wider range of hairstyles. "So we've got new hairstyles and maternity flight suits. Pregnant women are going to fight our wars. It's a mockery of the U.S. military,” Carlson said. “While China’s military becomes more masculine as it has assembled the world’s largest navy, our military needs to become, as Joe Biden says, more feminine, whatever feminine means anymore,” he continued.

Why Republicans think Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head can save them - The prevailing message that emerged from last weekend's annual Conservative Political Action Conference wasn't that Joe Biden is a bad president or that Donald Trump is great (although both speakers and attendees voiced those sentiments).It was that Mr. Potato Head had been canceled."Look out, Mr. Potato Head, you're next," said Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz said in his speech. "I'm sorry, I think now he's going by Potato X. He can't be Mr. Potato."Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, also referenced Hasbro's decision tochange the name of its children's toy from "Mr. Potato Head" to simply "Potato Head." (Hasbro explained its decision this way: "Hasbro is making sure all feel welcome in the Potato Head world by officially dropping the Mr. from the Mr. Potato Head brand name and logo to promote gender equality and inclusion.")  The alleged canceling of Mr. Potato Head was not just consistent with the dominant theme of the CPAC gathering -- a banner proclaiming "America Uncanceled" was prominently displayed on stage -- but also with where Republicans (and their conservative media allies) have gone, in terms of messaging, in the immediate post-Trump era. That message? Liberals are trying to cancel long-cherished cultural touchstones -- solely because it doesn't comport with their preferred vision for America.If you look back at what has truly animated conservatives in the months since Trump lost the election, it's consistently been less about policy and far more about this idea that Democrats are trying to rid the country of our cultural icons.Take just the last week (or so) as evidence.The announcement by Disney in late February that it had added warnings to some episodes of "The Muppet Show" that contained "negative depictions" and "mistreatment of people or cultures" brought outrage from conservatives. "KERMIT NEXT?" tweeted Fox News' Sean Hannity. Added Trump Jr.: "Apparently The Muppets have now been canceled. There's nothing these psychos won't destroy. Liberalism is a disease."Then came the Potato Head mashup.Now, on Tuesday morning, comes word that six Dr. Seuss books would no longer be publishedby the company that owns them because they "portray people in ways that are hurtful and wrong." Trump Jr. immediately seized on the news; "There's nothing they wont destroy," he tweeted. "If you don't think leftism is a disease you haven't been watching close enough!"

Far-Right Misinformation Is Thriving On Facebook. A New Study Shows Just How Much --By the time a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, fueled by far-right conspiracies and lies about a stolen election, a group of researchers at New York University had been compiling Facebook engagement data for months.The NYU-based group, Cybersecurity For Democracy, was studying online misinformation — wanting to know how different types of news sources engaged with their audiences on Facebook. After the events of Jan. 6, researcher Laura Edelson expected to see a spike in Facebook users engaging with the day's news, similar to Election Day.  But Edelson, who helped lead the research, said her team noticed a troubling phenomenon."The thing was, most of that spike was concentrated among the partisan extremes and misinformation providers," Edelson told NPR's All Things Considered. "And when I really sit back and think about that, I think the idea that on a day like that, which was so scary and so uncertain, that the most extreme and least reputable sources were the ones Facebook users were engaging with, is pretty troubling." But it wasn't just one day of high engagement. A new study from Cybersecurity For Democracy found that far-right accounts known for spreading misinformation are not only thriving on Facebook, they're actually more successful than other kinds of accounts at getting likes, shares and other forms of user engagement.It wasn't a small edge, either."It's almost twice as much engagement per follower among the sources that have a reputation for spreading misinformation," Edelson said. "So, clearly, that portion of the news ecosystem is behaving very differently." The research team used CrowdTangle, a Facebook-owned tool that measures engagement, to analyze more than 8 million posts from almost 3,000 news and information sources over a five-month period. Those sources were placed in one of five categories for partisanship — Far Right, Slightly Right, Center, Slightly Left, Far Left — using evaluations from Media Bias/Fact Check andNewsGuard.Each source was then evaluated on whether it had a history of spreading misinformation or conspiracy theories. What Edelson and her colleagues discovered is what some Facebook critics — and at least one anonymous executive — have been saying for some time: that far-right content is just more engaging. In fact, the study found that among far-right sources, those known for spreading misinformation significantly outperformed non-misinformation sources.

Bank CEO sought meeting with Trump while eyeing job, prosecutors say -New details have emerged about the efforts by a bank CEO to land a high-ranking job in the Trump administration as part of an alleged bribery scheme involving Paul Manafort. Stephen Calk, former CEO of The Federal Savings Bank, unsuccessfully sought a meeting with then-President-elect Donald Trump in December 2016 while angling for the secretary of the Army job, prosecutors said in a new court filing. Federal prosecutors also alleged a closer link than they had previously described between Trump’s surprise electoral victory over Hillary Clinton and the Chicago-based bank’s decision to extend credit to Manafort. Calk is scheduled to face trial on June 22 in connection with two mortgage loans totaling $16 million that Federal Savings made to Manafort, who was the Trump’s campaign chairman during his first run for president. Calk has pleaded not guilty. The onetime CEO is accused of greenlighting the loans to Manafort in return for assistance in snagging a senior role in the Trump administration. Federal prosecutors in New York, who brought the criminal case in 2019, filed a superseding indictment on Thursday. It states that less than three weeks before Election Day, Calk and another executive at the bank decided to reject a proposed multimillion-dollar loan to Manafort. But almost immediately after Trump’s victory, Calk allegedly reversed course and caused the bank to approve the loan. While the bank’s consideration of the loan was still pending, Calk asked a loan officer at the bank to call Manafort and ask whether the bank CEO was in consideration for Treasury secretary or other senior administration jobs, prosecutors allege. The loan officer did not carry out the request, but less than a week later, Calk and Manafort spoke on the phone for 18 minutes, according to the court document, which does not include information about what was discussed. After Calk emailed Manafort the following month about potentially meeting with Trump, the political operative told him that the president-elect was not taking such meetings while traveling, according to prosecutors. Manafort and representatives of the bank signed the final loan documents on Jan. 4, 2017, and about a week later Calk interviewed with members of the presidential transition team for the under secretary of the Army job, prosecutors allege

 Fed warns banks they face consequences for slow Libor shifts -- The Federal Reserve warned major banks they could face consequences if they don’t wean off Libor fast enough. The U.S. central bank told firms in a letter Tuesday that it would examine their Libor transition plans, and senior leaders will need to show budgets and resources dedicated to the shift. Foreign firms should measure their exposures booked or managed within their U.S. operations, the Fed said. “Supervised firms that are not making adequate progress in transitioning away from Libor could create safety and soundness risks for themselves and for the financial system,” said Michael Gibson, director, division of supervision and regulation at the Fed. “Examiners should consider issuing supervisory findings and other supervisory actions if a firm is not ready to stop issuing Libor-based contracts by December 31, 2021.” The Fed could potentially issue MRAs or MRIAs — matters requiring attention or matters requiring immediate attention — depending on the responses to its inquiries. These generally require a board-level reply including a timeline for corrective action. Investigations or enforcement action follow if the Fed isn’t satisfied. The latest guidance could accelerate things, according to strategists at TD Securities in New York. ”The Fed is certainly aiming to light a fire under the market and encourage a faster transition toward alternatives,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. rates strategist at the firm. Banks have less than a year before the Fed has indicated it will stop allowing them to enter into new contracts pegged to Libor, a bedrock of the financial system that’s being phased out by global policymakers due to a lack of underlying trading and following a high-profile rigging scandal. The Fed had already intensified its scrutiny of banks as they exit a set of rates underpinning hundreds of trillion of dollars of assets worldwide, from student loans and mortgages to interest rate swaps and collateralized loan obligations.

Fed will continue supporting PPP loans until June 30 — The Federal Reserve will extend by three months the liquidity facility bolstering the Paycheck Protection Program while letting other emergency lending programs expire on March 31, the agency announced Monday. The Fed has been offering low-interest loans to lenders through the facility in an effort to expand the reach of the PPP, a massive rescue program administered by the Small Business Administration to provide forgivable loans to businesses struggling in the pandemic. The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, or PPPLF, has provided nondepository institutions their first access to Fed financing. Community development financial institutions and nonbank SBA lenders had lobbied the Fed for an extension of the facility, arguing that they were counting on the program to fund new originations and likely wouldn’t be able to participate if the facility were to close. The Fed, with support from the Treasury Department, has twice extended the life of the PPLF. It moved an original August end date initially to Dec. 31 and then March 31. With the newest extension, the program will remain open until June 30.

Fears of a backlog as PPP deadline looms - Bankers can expect to spend long hours in coming weeks as they expedite applications for Paycheck Protection Program loans. A number of lenders are looking to secure approvals for borrowers prior to the PPP’s current March 31 expiration. That could cause bottlenecks as a torrent of applications and other documents flood the Small Business Administration’s portal. At the same time, error codes continue to cause issues. “The resolution process … is complex,” Erik Asgeirsson, president and chief executive of CPA.com, said during a recent virtual town hall meeting hosted by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. “There are actually applications that have not been able to be successfully submitted into the SBA system yet. These need to be fixed.” Those concerns will likely be covered during a House Small Business Committee meeting set for Wednesday. The panel will discuss the program’s status amid growing calls to extend its lending authority. Lenders have expressed concerns that errors have landed tens of thousands of applications in a code-related state of limbo as the PPP’s end date nears. Program participants said the issue is making it difficult for them to fully realize the Biden administration's goal of providing more loans to smaller businesses. “Those businesses that should have been eligible to receive PPP funds — including those in hardest-hit communities who may not have taken advantage of PPP last year — will be locked out,” a coalition of nine financial industry trade groups wrote Friday in a letter to senior leaders of the House and Senate Small Business Committees. The group, which includes the American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America, Consumer Bankers Association and National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, is asking that any application submitted to the SBA by March 31 be deemed eligible for approval. That, they argued, “will provide the necessary time to allow for completion and funding.” Several bankers have also lobbied for extending the PPP deadline.

 House bill would push PPP deadline to May 31 -A week after accounting and financial services trade groups issued urgent calls to extend the Paycheck Protection Program’s lending authority, senior leaders of the House Small Business Committee introduced legislation that pushes the sunset date out two months. The Paycheck Protection Program Extension Act, which counts among its sponsors Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., the Small Business Committee’s chairwoman, and Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-Mo., its ranking member, would extend PPP lending to May 31. The bill would also give the Small Business Administration an additional 30 days beyond that to process applications submitted up to the lending deadline. “The demand for PPP loans right now is a testament to the program’s effectiveness and the lingering impacts of this pandemic,” said Rep. Nydia Velazquez, a New York Democrat. Bloomberg News“The demand for PPP loans right now is a testament to the program’s effectiveness and the lingering impacts of this pandemic,” Velazquez said in a press release. “That’s why we cannot cut off aid now and this short-term extension is so important.” “This bipartisan legislation will provide a commonsense extension to the Paycheck Protection Program and the tools for Main Street USA to contribute to their local economies once again,” Luetkemeyer added in the press release. Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., and Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux, D-Ga., are also sponsoring the extension bill. The Senate has yet to introduce companion legislation but could do so as soon as Thursday, according to a Senate source. The bill's introduction comes a day after final passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan that includes $7.25 billion in additional PPP funding, boosting total funding for the program to $814 billion. It also follows a House Small Business Committee hearing Wednesday during which several witnesses and lawmakers called for extending the program. Several advocacy groups, including the American Bankers Association and National Association for the Self-Employed, were quick to jump on the extension bandwagon Thursday. According to NASE President and CEO Keith Hall, 88% of NASE members who participated in a recent survey indicated they supported additional stimulus, including expanded PPP lending.

House members receptive to extending PPP deadline -- Leaders of the House Small Business Committee signaled during a Wednesday hearing that they are open to extending the Paycheck Protection Program’s lending authority past its March 31 expiration date. “It’s clear small businesses still need help, but lingering issues in the program [have created a] need for Congress to consider a short-term extension,” said Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., the committee's chairwoman. Though open to extending the deadline for PPP applications, Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-Mo., said legislators must recognize the temporal nature of the program. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the committee’s ranking Republican member, said that error codes are holding up as many as 50,000 applications and that 10,000 of those may not get be resolved by the end of the month. Against that backdrop, the Missouri legislator said it is “very concerning” that Small Business Administration would be forced to stop processing loans at the end of the month. “I’ve spoken to many lenders on this issue,” Luetkemeyer said. “Instead of taking applications that will never be processed by the SBA, they’re planning to shut down their PPP lending entirely before the ... deadline.” Lawmakers heard an earful about error codes generated by the SBA's loan portal. “We have one borrower that has been in a code issue since Jan. 29,” Alice Frazier, president and CEO of the $621 million-asset Potomac Bancshares in Charles Town, W.Va., told the committee. Frazier, secretary of the Independent Community Bankers of America, said any PPP applications submitted by March 31 should be eligible for approval and funding. "No application should be stranded by bureaucratic red tape," she said.

Senate Banking Committee Sets GameStop Hearing for Tuesday; Koch Money Pops Up Again - Pam Martens --We’re starting to see a pattern. When the House Financial Services Committee held its February 18 hearing on the wild, manipulative trading patterns in shares of GameStop, a right-wing front group funded with Koch money sent a surprise witness to testify. The front group was the Cato Institute, which was secretly owned by Charles and David Koch and a handful of men through much of its history. Tomorrow, the Senate Banking Committee will hold its own hearing on the GameStop matter and one of the five witnesses called to testify hails from another bastion of Koch money, influence and dubious history.The witness we’re referring to is Andrew (Andy) Vollmer, a Senior Affiliated Scholar with the Mercatus Center. It’s a safe bet this witness wasn’t invited by the Chair of the Committee, Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, but was invited by one of the numerous radical right Republicans that have landed on this Committee. While the details surrounding Koch funding of climate denial “think tanks” has received much attention, Koch’s massive trading operation known as Koch Supply and Trading has remained under the radar. But the presence of Cato and now Mercatus at hearings on GameStop suggests that protecting algorithmic and high frequency trading must be near and dear to the heart of Charles Koch as well as Koch Supply and Trading.The Mercatus Center is part of George Mason University (GMU). The Associated Press reported that “From 2011 to 2014, the Charles Koch Foundation gave nearly $48 million to George Mason in one form or another, tax records show” and the bulk of that sum was steered to the Mercatus Center.Sitting on the Board of Directors at the Mercatus Center is Richard Fink, a former Executive Vice President of Koch Companies Public Sector and current Vice Chair of the Charles Koch Foundation and Charles Koch Institute. Also on the Mercatus Center Board is Brian Hooks, President of the Charles Koch Foundation and the Charles Koch Institute. Charles Koch himself is also listed as “Board Member Emeritus” at the Mercatus Center.

GameStop Just Collapsed After Topping Record Close --WallStreetBets sentiment is soaring in GME again... Source And thanks to that, GME is up 40% today, up six days in a row (the longest streak in six months) and just topped $347.51 - its record closing price! It appears the meme-stock meltup is back... “It looks like the second wave of bullish speculation has clearly kicked off,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said by email. He warned, however, that the recent corporate updates may not be enough to justify the stock’s surge. “Given the massive volatility in this stock, the risk is huge as the rally in the GME stock price is boosted by expectations of future growth, and is not based on concrete results for now.” The original basket of heavily-shorted WSB stocks is soaring along with GME... Meanwhile, GameStop, at near $24 billion market cap, is now the biggest company in the Russell 2000, overtaking PLUG. As @John13468388 noted so poignantly: "Smooth functioning market when a brick and mortar with a dead business model is the largest company in the russell." We wonder how Melvin Capital's month is going? Update (1225ET): GME collapsed after we posted highlighting the craziness again, and is now halted for the first second third fourth time... And AMC collapsed too... And as goes GME, so goes the entire market...Small Caps and Nasdaq are plunging...

One Day After the Senate Hearing on GameStop Manipulation, Its Stock Puts on a Wild Show of Manipulation By Pam Martens- Welcome to the casino where the house always wins. One day after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee held a wide-ranging hearing on the price manipulation that is occurring in the shares of GameStop and other meme stocks, the high frequency traders and hedge funds and Dark Pools that are making a killing on this manipulation poked their fingers directly in the eyes of Senate lawmakers. They put on a wild trading show yesterday that basically said, “catch us if you can.”GameStop is not some penny stock operating out of a boiler room in some grimy backwater of Wall Street. GameStop is a New York Stock Exchange listed stock. It has a market capitalization of $18.48 billion. But the brazen manipulation of its stock, as both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee conduct investigative hearings into who’s behind the manipulations, speaks volumes about how little these actors think they have to fear from Congress, the SEC and the new U.S. Attorney General, Merrick Garland, whom the Senate confirmed yesterday.GameStop opened for trading yesterday morning at $269.43. It then began an ascent that took it to $348.50 by approximately 12:17 p.m. Then, as if someone had rung a bell, heavy volume selling came in and the stock plunged 176.5 points in the span of 23 minutes, touching its low of the day of $172. By the closing bell, GameStop shares had climbed their way back to $265.00.High frequency traders can make a fortune on this kind of volatility as can option traders. Market makers, who benefit from a widening spread between the bid and ask as a result of the volatility, also stand to clean up.Over the span of yesterday’s trading session, 71,570,566 shares of GameStop were traded – which is 26 million more shares than GameStop’s float, that is, the number of outstanding shares available for trading. The high-volume trading at midday and the appearance of a concerted effort to plunge the share price at 12:17 p.m., strongly suggests the action of sophisticated, big money traders, not small retail traders hanging out on Reddit. Rachel Robasciotti, founder and CEO of Adasina Social Capital, was a witness at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on GameStop on Tuesday and explained why it matters to all of us: Imagine a two-job household with a couple of kids, adults working hard to make ends meet and save enough for the future. They don’t have a professionally-managed pension to fall back on for retirement, because so few pensions now exist. They know that Social Security benefits their parents receive aren’t enough to cover most retiree’s basic needs. And putting their money in low-risk savings accounts, CDs, or bonds barely makes them enough to keep up with inflation.“This leaves investing in the stock market as their only option. It is the only way their savings can grow enough to provide for the future. So, they are forced into the ‘stock market casino’ with their life savings. And they are being required to play against armies of sophisticated, high-risk hedge funds and Redditors duking it out for dominance. With smaller amounts, that represent all that they have to invest, sustaining significant losses (or even the perception of losses) is devastating. It makes them lose confidence and want to opt out altogether. But we know they can’t leave the casino.”

Inside the Stock Market's Looming SPAC Bubble - Whenever greed meets reality and giddy markets collapse, Wall Street pros usually admit that they sensed the end was coming. The warning signs were so familiar, they belatedly confess, that it was difficult to believe anyone could miss them. The chain of fools was running out. This can’t last. Today those sober words are being whispered again in American finance, this time about one of the biggest money-grabs in the business, SPACs. Who hasn’t heard about SPACs by now? Once dismissed as sketchy Wall Street arcana, these publicly traded shells are created for one purpose: to merge with real businesses that actually make money. Nowadays everyone who’s anyone seems to be doing one. Sports figures like Alex Rodriguez and Shaquille O’Neal; former House speaker Paul Ryan; Wall Street rainmakers like Michael Klein — the list runs on. The count from the past 15 months stretches to 474 SPACs. Together, they’ve raised $156 billion. Picture GameStop Redditor meets “Wolf of Wall Street,” and you get the idea. The celebrity-studded spectacle will either prove that SPACs — officially, special purpose acquisition companies — are transforming the way finance gets done, or that the market mania is spiraling out of control. Maybe both. Privately, and increasingly publicly, financial professionals warn this will end badly for the investing public. To cynics, the only questions are when, and how badly. More and more members of the SPAC ecosystem — a matrix of hedge funders, private-equity dealmakers, bankers, lawyers and assorted promoters — see the excesses building. They point to you’ve-got-to-be-joking valuations, questionable disclosures and, most worrisome, a growing misalignment of interests. On one side of the divide are the people minting SPACs and getting rich now. On the other side are the people buying into SPACs and hoping to get rich later. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been running up red flags. The bad omens are all around. I called a private-equity executive who was eyeballing a list of 20-or-so SPACs, a mere week’s worth at the time. He figured five might be worth investing in. Rodriguez, the baseball-shortstop-turned-entrepreneur, recently told Bloomberg Television that his goal was to build “the Yankees of SPACs.” The real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht mused that a member of his domestic staff — his “very talented house manager” — probably could pull one off too. An analyst at a major bank told me he’s thinking about doing a SPAC. He asked, half-joking, if I wanted in. “It’s just so easy,” he told me. Cassius Cuvée is among the believers. He’s a hip-hop artist and self-professed cannabis and champagne enthusiast from Oakland, California. A friend turned him on to SPACs after the fantasy-sports site DraftKings Inc. stormed into the stock market with one, clearing the way for Richard Branson’s space-tourism company, electric-vehicle startup Nikola Corp. and the rest. Cuvée was so taken by the money that he laid down a track, “SPAC Dream.” His song made the front page of the Wall Street Journal. “I’ve done better than I ever thought I would,” says Cuvée, who claims he’s got about $500,000 invested in 40 or 50 different SPACs. He took some lumps at first but brushed up by watching TV and scrolling Twitter. “Now I know what I’m doing,” he says.

SEC Issues Investor Alert About Celebrity SPACs After Bruising Selloff --When we look back at the COVID-19 era, there's little doubt that the SPAC boom that dominated financial headlines last year will be remembered as a shining example of what happens when the Fed steps up to monetize trillions of dollars in federal government stimulus, while millions of scared and desperate Americans scramble to parlay one free paycheck into two. A few days ago, Chamath Palihapitiya, "the King of SPACs" whose leadership in the Virgin Galactic deal arguably makes him one of the progenitors of the contemporary bubble, warned that there will be even more pain ahead for SPAC investors, especially if bond yields continue to rise (which, as we have explained, they likely will, especially if Senators Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren get their way).“The SPAC market has taken a real beating...if you have one or two more months of this where all of a sudden bonds look better…you’ll have a bunch of busted IPOs or mergers.”To borrow a phrase form Palihapitiya, SPACs "took a beating" during the Nasdaq drawdown that started last month.Yet, as issuance volume explodes...  ...the SEC has decided to issue a rare public alert about the sector, warning investors to think twice before investing their hard-earned money in shares of a SPAC, especially when celebrity pitchmen or women are attached to the deal. The notice cautions investors not to make investment decisions "solely based on celebrity involvement".Most importantly, the notice explained to readers how the economic interests of SPAC sponsors sometimes differ from those of their customers, as sponsors will typically get in on deals at more favorable terms. The agency also offered readers a walk-through of how SPACs work, including explaining what a "warrant" is, the standard $10 debut trading price, and the typical two-year timeframe (SPACs usually promise investors they will close a deal within 2 years).Read the full notice below:

Senate Banking Committee approves Biden's pick to head SEC — The Senate Banking Committee advanced President Biden’s nominee to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission but has held up the nomination of the proposed head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The nomination of Gary Gensler, Biden's pick to serve as chairman of the SEC, was advanced by the committee in a 14-10 vote and will be voted on by the full Senate. But the nomination if Rohit Chopra, Biden’s choice to lead the CFPB, will need to clear an additional procedural hurdle after the panel voted 12-12 on his confirmation. Chopra’s nomination can still head to the Senate floor, but the Senate will need to vote on a motion to discharge it from committee. Rohit Chopra is President Biden's pick to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The committee’s votes on Chopra and Gensler come on the heels of the Senate’s confirmation of Marcia Fudge as secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. More than a dozen Republicans joined all Senate Democrats Wednesday in approving Fudge's nomination. Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, praised Chopra and Gensler for their commitment to help workers and families. “Both nominees are committed to creating an economy that works for all workers,” Brown said. “Mr. Gensler’s leadership of the SEC is critical to assuring the agency meets the evolving needs of people whose hard earned savings are invested in the markets. Mr. Chopra is nominated to lead the CFPB at a time when the agency is needed more than ever to help struggling families weather the economic fallout from the pandemic.” The committee’s top Republican, Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, opposed both nominations. Toomey said he was concerned about Chopra’s support for the CFPB’s enforcement regime when Richard Cordray led the agency from 2012 to 2017. “Based on Mr. Chopra’s record, I am deeply concerned that he would return the CFPB to the hyperactive, sometimes lawbreaking, anti-business, unaccountable agency it was under the Obama administration,” Toomey said. Toomey added that he is worried that Gensler will use the SEC to advance policies outside of its jurisdiction. “There is no doubt that Mr. Gensler knows a lot about the securities markets, but based on his record, I am concerned that he will stray from the SEC’s tradition of bipartisanship, by using the agency’s regulatory powers to advance a liberal social agenda on issues such as climate change, political spending, and racial equality," Toomey said.

Dems Provide Brutal Assessment of Wall Street at Senate Banking Hearing - By Pam Martens - Yesterday’s Senate Banking Committee hearing to assess if the wild trading in meme stocks like GameStop and others requires new regulations on Wall Street turned into an overall assessment that Wall Street’s capital allocation system is broken and the main function of Wall Street today is a wealth transfer system for the rich. The Chair of the Committee, Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) summed it up as follows: (Read his full, enlightening remarks here.) “We’ve seen Wall Street treat the markets as a game for decades – a game they always win, at the expense of pretty much everyone else. Wall Street has never been friendly to the little guy. Surely this time is no different. Yes, some regular people have had success. But fundamentally, the system is set up to funnel more wealth to the already-wealthy. Just like in Las Vegas, the House always wins.” Senator Elizabeth Warren sized up the current structure of Wall Street like this: “It’s riddled with conflicts of interest that allow the giants to win every single time.” Warren went on to say that Wall Street “is supposed to be about capital formation, to creating long-term value for companies, so they can grow and create jobs. This is good for the American economy and American families. But when big sharks like Citadel and Robinhood come out ahead no matter what happens, and when the information they gather isn’t disclosed, and when it’s secret how that information is used, it’s easier for these giants to skim off the top at the expense of small investors and working families.” Senator Jon Ossoff, the newly-elected 34-year old Democrat from Georgia, demonstrated that he has been paying close attention to how things play out between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. Ossoff said that in the American Rescue Plan that was passed by the Senate on Saturday, “unlike traditional monetary expansion which subsidizes investment banks and unlike other recent fiscal measures that have subsidized corporations and wealth donors, zero percent of the stimulus checks and tax credits in this bill goes to the top one percent.”  […] Ossoff then tackled the Federal Reserve’s perpetual money spigot to Wall Street, asking Robasciotti this: “And what in your view are the costs, Ms. Robasciotti, of economic stimulus, like traditional monetary expansion, which adds liquidity to financial markets by allowing investment banks to access credit at extraordinarily low rates or just transfers cash to financial institutions’ balance sheets via processes like quantitative easing?” Robasciotti responded: “Those who are doing well at this point with their outsized gains, particularly during the pandemic, don’t need any more help. What it actually does is just sequesters that money in the hands of those who are most wealthy and aren’t going to put it back necessarily in the economy. You know we had that argument of trickle-down economics and we can kind of see from where we all are that that’s not actually what happened.”Ossoff then turned to another witness on the panel, Professor Gina-Gail Fletcher of Duke University School of Law.  Do you believe, Professor Fletcher, that the U.S. financial system in its current configuration facilitates the efficient allocation of capital?” Fletcher’s response suggested that she felt it might be career suicide to take on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy that infused $29 trillion cumulatively into Wall Street from 2007 to 2010 and at least $9 trillion cumulatively this time around. Fletcher deflected with this answer:“I think that the U.S. capital markets are among some of the best capital markets in the world. But there are significant issues with the market structure that we have currently, in that we have retail investors that are able to make risky decisions without fully appreciating the cost of those decisions. Within our capital structure we also have questionable valuations for some companies that may not be fully reflective of an efficient market. So, if I believe that our markets are fully efficient, no, not quite. But do I believe that they are among the most efficient in the world, absolutely.”

Banks Tweak Bond Covenant Language To Protect Against Repeat Of Citi's $500M "Fat Finger" Loss --After a court battle that dragged on for more than a year, a New York judge shocked the investment banking community last month when they ruled that a group of Revlon creditors could keep some $500MM that they refused to return to Citi after some $900MM was accidentally transferred in what appeared to be a "fat finger". At the time, legal experts posited that the judge's decision, which was based on quirks in New York State law, would force investment banks to reevaluate the wording of their bond covenants in all future deals, as the ruling created new risks that needed to be addressed.It appears America's biggest lenders have already come up with new legal terminology to be inserted into covenant agreements that would require lenders to return any accidentally transferred funds to the banks.The legally binding clauses have been inserted into debt deals for Eagle Materials and pet supply chain Petco, among other deals, the FT reports.Building materials manufacturer Eagle Materials, pet supply chain Petco and industrial equipment maker Mesa Laboratories have all included a type of "erroneous payment" term in their US loan deals, according to credit documents assessed by credit analysis company 9fin.Analysts who study the leveraged loan market said this is the first time in recent memory that covenant language was evolving in this way, as "erroneous payment" clauses are expected to become standard."This is such a rare thing that has not happened in the US leveraged loan market for a very long time at such a scale," said Justin Forlenza, senior covenant analyst at credit research company Covenant Review, referring to Citi’s blunder."All the arrangers want to avoid that scenario going forward." The covenant typically gives banks the discretion to judge whether a payment was mistakenly made and to demand its repayment as well as any interest from the date that the funds were received.

Fintech trade groups merge, recruit more members - Fintech companies are joining a new trade group called the American Fintech Council to lobby Washington lawmakers and set standards for their industry. The group, which debuted March 3, added 10 new members to its roster on Monday, including Varo and Green Dot. It also launched a Community Advisory Board intended to help promote responsible practices in the fintech industry. “The American Fintech Council is poised to play a critical role in the US regulatory landscape,” Colin Walsh, founder and CEO of Varo, said in a press release. The Washington-based organization was formed with the merger of the Marketplace Lending Association and Online Lending Policy Institute. The group says its goal is to promote policies that benefit consumers and foster responsible innovation, financial inclusion and racial equity. “Joining these two organizations together will allow us to build on our complementary strengths and create a unified voice for all industry stakeholders committed to helping hardworking families take control of their financial health,” Cornelius Hurley, professor at Boston University School of Law and executive director of the Online Lending Policy Institute, said in a separate release. The American Fintech Council’s more than 50 members span digital banks, online lenders, robo advisers and other types of fintech firms. They include the lenders Affirm, Figure, LendingClub and Prosper; the credit bureaus Equifax, Experian and TransUnion; and the banking-as-a-service provider Cross River. Members must adhere to a set of standards, including capping loans at an annual percentage rate of 36%, following the Small Business Borrowers’ Bill of Rights from the Responsible Business Lending Coalition, and demonstrating transparency in products and fees.

 Arizona group aims to jump-start European-style open banking in U.S - An organization in Arizona is laying groundwork for the U.S. to develop its own definition of open banking, a European policy that called for banks to share consumer data with third parties such as fintechs. Forward-thinking bank and technology executives sense the U.S. could go well beyond the original intentions of open banking by getting banks and fintechs to modernize payments and financial services tools — and quickly move digital products to market — through an API-driven ecosystem. CCG Catalyst Consulting and the Arizona Bankers Association want to support that scenario through the creation of the Arizona Fintech Council, an organization of banks, economic and technology groups and other stakeholders to promote the partnership of banks and fintechs in moving technology forward. So far, the U.S. is moving cautiously toward that goal. Not only is opening banking channels not a government mandate as it is in Europe, but many in the U.S. have different definitions of open banking. Open banking, as pushed through PSD2 in Europe, called for banks to share consumer data with third parties requesting it. For many, that also established a definition and set a clear path toward developing APIs, or application programming interfaces, to easily share the data across platforms. In the U.S., banks either have their own interpretations or stay out of the discussion altogether. "The lack of a definition here in the U.S. creates confusion but also creates a lot of opportunity," said Kate Drew, director of research at CCG Catalyst Consulting and author of a report on open banking to help guide the new council. "There are many more things you can do through open banking, using banking-as-a-service models or to integrate with fintechs more deeply."

BankThink How the CFPB can better regulate data sharing As the Biden administration takes steps to bolster the economic wellbeing of American households, a critical question must be addressed: How to provide consumers safe, equal access to the digital financial system? The question is highly relevant as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureua is considering how to write rules on consumer access to their financial records, particularly when a third party is involved. Now that the initial comment period for the advance notice of proposed rulemaking has closed, the CFPB will sort through input provided by businesses, advocacy groups, consumers, fintech developers and others to try to answer this question. The answer is complex. But at the end of the day, the protections need to ensure that consumers are free to take their data with them to any provider that meets their needs. It should be consumers — not banks or fintech companies — that control consumer data. The digitization of financial services is still in its early stages. But there’s already much scrutiny about innovation in a highly regulated ecosystem. Through this rulemaking, the CFPB can establish a robust oversight regime that addresses overlapping policy issues in data privacy, consumer protection and financial health. The first step is to supervise data aggregators, like Plaid, that act as switchboard operators in this new digital arena, enabling consumers to connect their bank accounts to thousands of digital services from banks and fintech companies. Supervision at this central layer can ensure that consumers and their data will be protected across all digital providers. In addition to supervising data aggregators, there are four important steps that the CFPB should consider in addressing the challenges consumers currently face in accessing digital financial tools.

1. First, the CFPB must enforce consumer rights to authorized data access.
2. Second, the CFPB should not try to mandate specific technologies and inadvertently stifle progress.
3. Third, the CFPB should monitor financial services practices to ensure competitive incentives do not hinder consumer access.
4. Fourth, to ensure that customers of all data holders have equal access to the fintech ecosystem, the CFPB should regularly assess the availability and consistency of authorized access.

State data privacy laws pose compliance headaches for banks - States are stepping up their efforts to protect the privacy of consumer data, and the trend is adding to banks' compliance challenges as stewards of vast amounts of personal information. Virginia passed a data privacy law on March 2, while California strengthened its existing data privacy law on Nov. 3. These new rules only partially affect banks, raising plenty of questions and concerns for bank employees responsible for handling consumer data. Vendors and partners may be subject to the new laws, too. And these new laws are just the beginning: Other states, including Washington, are writing their own data privacy legislation and a national data privacy law may be coming. “The reality for the financial services industry is that this is going to be somewhat of a national exercise one way or the other within the next few years,” said Ron Whitworth, chief privacy officer at Truist Financial in Charlotte, N.C. These state actions are part of a broader trend of increasing consumer awareness of data privacy. “Customers care about how you're handling their personal data anyway,” said Jill Reber, general manager of the data privacy practice at Logic20/20, a business and technology consulting company based in Seattle. “Your end game is to keep your customer loyalty. And so if you're mishandling their personal data because you aren't worried about these data privacy regulations, that's going to create a new issue for you.” Here are answers to key questions surrounding the new Virginia law and updated California law.

  Too many small banks are 'digital have-nots'- FDIC innovation chief --As the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s new chief innovation officer, Sultan Meghji has a few things on his plate: making the financial system more inclusive for consumers, fostering innovation within the agency and helping banks — especially small ones — keep their technology up to snuff.  Meghji was appointed to the newly created role Feb. 16, the FDIC said, in large part to lead its efforts to promote the adoption of innovative technologies across the financial services sector.  Meghji was formerly the founder and CEO of Neocova, one of a new wave of startups offering cloud-based core banking to banks. He is also an adjunct professor at Washington University in St. Louis, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Bretton Woods Committee, a nonpartisan group in Washington that promotes international economic cooperation.  He started his new job with a bang, briefing congressional staff on his first day about financial inclusion, fintechs, artificial intelligence and other topics. In an interview, Meghji shared some of his goals.

 House lawmaker proposes new restrictions on credit bureaus— The top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee is sponsoring legislation that would remove certain negative details from consumers’ credit reports. Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., on Thursday reintroduced the Protecting Consumer Access to Credit Act. The bill would expand the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s authority over credit reporting agencies and require them to leave out information regarding certain debts that may have an adverse effect on consumers, among other things. “These commonsense reforms to the FCRA are needed now more than ever as we exit the pandemic and work to ensure all Americans can take part in our nation’s recovery,” McHenry said in a press release, referring to the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Specifically, the legislation would require credit reporting agencies to remove all paid, nonelective medical debt from a consumer’s credit report. Consumers that are targeted by predatory lenders for a mortgage or student loan may have information related to those debts excluded from their credit reports as determined by a court. The bill also would subject credit reporting agencies to cybersecurity oversight by the CFPB and prohibits them from using consumers' Social Security numbers for verification purposes. The bill also requires the CFPB to study the use of nontraditional data in credit reports and issue a report to Congress within 18 months.

FDIC chair hopes regulators will 'come together' on CRA reform- Report — The head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. became the second top regulator in as many weeks to voice support for an interagency framework to reform the Community Reinvestment Act. “I would hope that the agencies will come together and have a uniform application of the new CRA framework for all our entities, whether national bank, FDIC bank or [Federal Reserve-supervised] state bank,” FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams said in an interview with Politico published Monday. Her comments reinforce recent optimism that the FDIC, Fed and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are focused on settling years of disagreement over CRA. The OCC issued a unilateral CRA reform rule in May under former Comptroller Joseph Otting, but critics objected to how it would measure sufficient CRA activity. The FDIC and Fed declined to sign on to the rule, and the Fed outlined an alternative CRA plan in September. Most of the OCC’s CRA rule will not be effective until 2023. That combined with the Biden administration’s ability to name a new comptroller leaves the door open to the agencies agreeing on a unified approach. Bankers have urged the agencies to speak with one voice on reforming the decades-old anti-redlining law. McWilliams comments to Politico echoed testimony last month by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the House Financial Services Committee, in which he said, “There is an opportunity for a harmonized [CRA] rule among the agencies.” However, the central bank said it would not be extending its other emergency lending facilities still in place past their current expiration date of March 31. In a press release, the Fed said that those programs — the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility — have “not had significant usage since last summer.” The Fed’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility and Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility used funding from Treasury’s exchange stabilization fund, while the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the PPPLF did not. In November, the Fed had pushed back against Treasury's request to return congressionally appropriated funds for five separate emergency lending programs, including the Main Street Lending Program. The central bank eventually agreed to return the money, which consequently closed those facilities at the end of 2020.

 Lenders urge Biden to remove GSE cap on 'high-risk' loans— Reforms to the government's oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced in the final days of the Trump administration are under fire as lenders, housing advocates and others charge that one of the changes penalizes minority borrowers. Critics are zeroing in on a provision that caps the amount of "high-risk" loans that Fannie and Freddie can buy. The new policy defines such mortgages based on loan-to value and debt-to-income ratios, as well as a borrower's credit score. Many in the lending industry and elsewhere argue the changes will disproportionately hurt people of color who will find it harder to access loans. “Objectively, looking at those limitations on the LTV, the DTI and FICO scores, those seem to run counter to the missions of Fannie and Freddie,” said Ann Kossachev, the director of regulatory affairs at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions. “If the mission is to ensure access for all Americans … then this defeats the purpose.” Some have also criticized restrictions in the new agreements that limit the size of transactions completed through the GSEs' cash window. Smaller lenders can use the window to gain liquidity through higher-volume sales. In January, days before President Biden took office, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria agreed on changes to the so-called preferred stock purchase agreements, which govern the conservatorships of the government-sponsored enterprises. The changes allow Fannie and Freddie to retain all of their earnings until they meet the requirements of the FHFA's new capital framework, which is seen as necessary for the companies ultimately to reenter the private sector. But the agreements also contained several restrictions on the GSEs' business practices, including limiting their purchases of high-risk single-family mortgages to 6% of their total book and high-risk refinances to 3%. Under the new PSPA agreements, a loan is considered high-risk if two of the following apply: it is more than 90% of a home’s value, the borrower's DTI is more than 45% or if the borrower has a FICO below 680. Housing finance experts say that, based on the median LTVs, DTIs and credit scores of Black and Hispanic borrowers, the policy will make it harder for people of color to access credit. For example, the median LTVs for Black and Hispanic borrowers were each 96.5% — higher than the cutoff — in 2019 data compiled by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “The limits imposed in the PSPAs make little sense," according to a February report by the Urban Institute. "They are not an efficient or effective way for the GSEs to manage their risk, yet they come at considerable cost, undermining policymakers’ ability to support the mortgage market on several fronts. These limits both disproportionately affect borrowers of color and unnecessarily constrict policy choices going forward.”

CFPB throws mortgage market another curveball -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's mortgage underwriting rule remains a political football following the agency's decision to delay a key compliance date. Some have lauded the decision to postpone until October 2022 the effective date for overhauling the Qualified Mortgage standard. But others worry it is a precursor to more changes in the QM framework, which has kept evolving since 2014. “The prospect that the CFPB may revisit the final QM rule puts the mortgage industry in limbo,” said Quyen Truong, a partner at Stroock and a former assistant CFPB director and deputy general counsel. “Now they have uncertainty about the future and the prospect of more demanding requirements.” The compliance delay will prolong an exemption from the QM rule for Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed loans, just as the CFPB was on the threshold of weaning lenders off of that special treatment. The framework currently in place recognizes loans with debt-to-income ratios below 43% as a Qualified Mortgage, which are protected from liability. But the exemption for the government-sponsored enterprises, known as the GSE "patch," allows QM loans backed by the GSEs to have higher DTIs.To replace the patch but smooth the transition for GSE-backed lenders, former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger essentially rewrote the QM rule. Instead of the DTI limit, all lenders had to follow a pricing-based threshold to achieve QM status. The new QM standard has been optional this earlier this month. It was previously set to become mandatory in July, at which point the patch would go away. But by delaying both the mandatory deadline and the elimination of the patch for a year and a half, some observers say acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio essentially has allowed a further loosening of underwriting requirements since more risky loans can be considered QM. Between now and the 2022 deadline, lenders have the flexibility to achieve QM either by using the patch, following the 43% DTI limit or using the new pricing threshold. "It will pull some of those non-QM loans into the QM bucket now,” “What it does is provide lenders a choice of what they would like to use: the old QM or the new QM.” Many were surprised at Uejio's about-face. The agency has long wanted to eliminate the GSE patch, but the extension means loans with higher DTIs will continue to be QM. Roughly 30% of loans backed by Fannie and Freddie have DTIs above 43%. The QM rule finalized under Kraninger had broad support from banks and mortgage lenders. Without the changes, eliminating the patch would mean a big chunk of GSE-backed loans with high DTIs would lose QM status. The new pricing threshold was seen as workable. It will give QM status to loans with annual percentage rates no higher than 2.25 percentage points above the average prime offer rate.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.20%" --Note: This is as of February 28th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.20% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 5.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.20% as of February 28, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....There was a small decline in the total share of loans in forbearance in the last week of February, as the pace of forbearance exits increased. This continues the trend reported in prior months. Of those homeowners in forbearance, more than 12 percent were current at the end of February, down somewhat from the almost 14 percent at the end of January,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The improving economy, the soon-to-be passed stimulus package, and the many homeowners in forbearance reaching the 12-month mark of their plan could all influence the overall forbearance share in the coming months."Fratantoni added, “Job growth picked up sharply in February and the unemployment rate decreased, but there are still almost 10 million people unemployed, with 4.1 million among the long-term unemployed – up 125,000 from January. The passage of the American Rescue Plan provides needed support for homeowners who are continuing to struggle during these challenging times.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, then trended down - and has mostly moved slowly down recently.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.07%."

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of March 9th.  From Black Knight: Forbearances See Largest Weekly Decline Since Beginning Of 2021 The number of active forbearance plans fell by 77,000 (-2.9%) this week, marking the largest weekly decline since early January 2021. This week’s decline was due to a combination of February month-end expirations as well as the proactive extension and removal of borrowers who were set to see their plans expire at the end of March.As of March 9, 2.6 million homeowners remain in forbearance, marking the first time that the forbearance rate has fallen below 5% since early April 2020.  While month-end expirations scheduled for the end of March are down from 1.1 million a week ago, there are still more than 800,000 plans currently listed with March month-end expirations. This represents a daunting task for servicers: the need to review hundreds of thousands of upcoming expirations for removal or extension based on recently revised HUD and FHFA allowable terms of up to 18 months for early forbearance entrants.Early extension activity suggests that servicers are continuing to approach forbearance plans in three-month increments, with the bulk of would-be March expirations being extended out through June.With more than 800,000 plans still listed with March month-end expirations we’ll be watching the numbers closely over the next few weeks for elevated levels of removal and extension activity.The number of loans in forbearance has declined slightly over the last few months.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January - Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to Black Knight, 5.85% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 6.08% of mortgages in December, and up from 3.22% in January 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.32% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.46% a year ago. This gives a total of 6.17% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight’s January 2021 Mortgage Monitor; Lock Activity Suggests Q1 2021 Refi Originations to Remain Near Record Highs as Rate Increases Cloud Q2 Outlook; Servicer Retention Hits New Low This month’s report looks back on 2020 origination volumes as well as at rate lock data from Black Knight’s Secondary Marketing Technologies division to get a sense of how the market is faring as rates begin to rise. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, despite interest rates recently spiking to more than 3.2% according to the daily tracking data of the company’s Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index, Q1 2021 refinance lending volumes are poised to remain near Q4 2020’s record-breaking high.“Roughly 2.8 million homeowners refinanced their mortgages in the last quarter of 2020, which saw a record-breaking $869 billion in refinance lending,” said Graboske. “Assuming a 45-day lock-to-close timeline, daily rate lock data from Black Knight through mid-February suggests refi activity could remain steady in Q1 2021. Of course, that’s before a recent spike in 30-year rates is expected to begin impacting closed loan volumes in late Q1 or early Q2. Still, by the end of March, another 2.8 million homeowners will have taken advantage of near-record-low rates to refinance their mortgages. It’s important to remember that this would be coupled with a 25% reduction from Q4 2020 in purchase loans as well, resulting in an overall 10% quarterly decline. “With rates on the rise, refinance incentive has been significantly curtailed. Just under 13 million high-quality refinance candidates remain in the market – a nearly 30% drop in just the past three weeks. Added to that, retention of what is now a dwindling number of refinancing borrowers remains at record lows, with just 18% being retained by their servicers. Approximately 2.3 million borrowers were not retained in Q4 2020 alone. Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows First Lien Origination Activity by quarter.From Black Knight:

• All in, a record-breaking $4.3T was originated in 2020, with $2.8T in refis – also an all-time high – and $1.5T in purchase loans, the largest annual volume since 2005
• Q4 2020 set an all-time high for a single quarter across the board, with $346B in purchase lending, $869B in refinance lending and $1,322B in total lending
• By the end of March, an expected 2.8M homeowners will have taken advantage of near-record-low rates to refinance their mortgages
• It’s important to note that the same data suggests a 25% reduction from Q4 2020 in purchase loans, resulting in an overall 10% quarterly decline.
• Despite quarter-over-quarter decline, that would still put Q1 2021 purchase originations some 31% above 2020 levels

CoreLogic: 1.5 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q4 2020 --From CoreLogic: Home Equity Continues to Soar: Homeowners Gained Over $1.5 Trillion in Equity in 2020, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... today released the Home Equity Report for the fourth quarter of 2020. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 16.2% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $1.5 trillion, and an average gain of $26,300 per homeowner, since the fourth quarter of 2019.As competition for the dwindling supply of for-sale homes drove prices up, average annual homeowner equity gains in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached the highest level since 2013. For current owners, these gains have created a buffer against financial difficulties brought on by the pandemic, and enabled means for pursuing renovations as people are spending more time at home. For the broader market, home equity gains have also reduced the risk of homes falling underwater and pushing distressed sales into the market.“Compared with a year earlier, home prices in December 2020 were up sharply — 9.2%, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index — boosting the amount of home equity for the average homeowner with a mortgage to more than $200,000,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This equity growth has enabled many families to finance home remodeling, such as adding an office or study, further contributing to last year’s record level in home improvement spending.”to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the fourth quarter of 2020, negative equity share, and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes, were as follows:
• Quarterly change: From the third quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2020, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 8% to 1.5 million homes or 2.8% of all mortgaged properties.
• Annual change: In the fourth quarter of 2019, 1.9 million homes, or 3.6% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. This number decreased by 21%, or 410,000 properties, in the fourth quarter of 2020.
• National aggregate value: The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $280.2 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $3.4 billion, or 1.2%, from $283.6 billion in the third quarter of 2020, and down year over year by approximately $7.5 billion, or 2.6%, from $287.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019.
This graph from CoreLogic compares Q4 to Q3 2020 equity distribution by LTV. There are still quite a few properties with LTV over 125%.  But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity.  This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity.On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 1.9 million to 1.5 million.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 4.1% YoY in Early March - From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of March 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by March 6 in its survey of 11.6 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 4.1 percentage point, or 474,942 household decrease from the share who paid rent through March 6, 2020 and compares to 79.2 percent that had paid by February 6, 2021. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.“On behalf of the multifamily industry, we are deeply appreciative of how leaders in Congress and the Biden administration worked with us to develop legislation that will deliver direct financial support to those facing distress due to the pandemic,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to the same month the prior year.This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  The second graph shows full month payments through February compared to the same month the prior year. This shows a decline in rent payments year-over-year, and somewhat more of a decline over the last several months. CR Note: There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments appear to be declining. 

 Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago."The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 3.26 percent last week, which is the highest since last July and up 40 basis points since the start of 2021. Signs of faster economic growth, an improving job market and increased vaccine distribution are pushing rates higher,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The run-up in mortgage rates continues to cool demand for refinance applications. Activity declined last week for the fourth time in five weeks.”Added Kan, “With the spring buying season at the doorstep, the purchase market had its strongest showing in four weeks, with gains in both conventional and government applications. Overall activity was 2.4 percent higher than a year ago, and loan sizes moderated for the second straight week – potentially a sign that more first-time buyers are entering the market.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.26 percent from 3.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.9 Trillion in Q4 -- The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2020 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $130.2 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $4.9 trillion and the value of real estate increased $0.9 trillion.Household debt increased 6.5 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2020. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 5.2 percent.  The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.    With the sharp decline in GDP in Q2, net worth as a percent of GDP increased sharply.  This reversed somewhat in Q3 as GDP bounced back (even as net worth increased).  And increased again in Q4.  This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.In Q4 2020, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 65.9% - up from 65.5% in Q3.Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have less than 65.9% equity - and about 1.5 million homeowners still have negative equity.  The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 GDP.Mortgage debt increased by $149 billion in Q4. Mortgage debt is still down from the peak during the housing bubble, and, as a percent of GDP is at 50.9% - down from Q3 - and down from a peak of 73.5% of GDP during the housing bubble. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q4, and is above the average of the last 30 years.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 26.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019 --Note: Starting next week, the year-over-year comparisons will be easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy will still be down significantly from normal levels. The occupancy rate is down 26.7% compared to the same week in 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Reaches 20-Week High: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached a 20-week high, according to STR‘s latest data through March 6.
Feb. 28 through March 6, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):
• Occupancy: 49.0% (-20.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$98.30 (-21.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.13 (-37.9%)
While demand has improved in in many states, most markets remain deep in recessionary territory when indexed to 2019 levels. Year-over-year comparisons with 2020 are beginning to turn favorable as the country hits the one-year anniversary of its earliest pandemic restrictions. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).   Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting.

Air travel at highest level in nearly a year, TSA says  -Air travel hit the highest point in nearly a year Friday as Americans slowly resume travel amid the distribution of coronavirus vaccines and rollbacks of restrictions in some states. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers screened 1.3 million people at airport security checkpoints Friday, the highest figure since March 15, 2020, according to TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein. The rise in air travel comes as the distribution of coronavirus vaccines ramps up. The U.S. on Friday passed 100 million vaccine doses administered,, and President Biden is ordering states to allow all adults to be eligible for a shot by May 1. Several states are also rolling back their restrictions, including Texas and Mississippi, which scrapped statewide mask mandates and are permitting businesses to fully open. New guidance from the government regarding travel is anticipated soon. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a number of recommendations that allow vaccinated and low-risk people more freedom to gather, but the government is still urging Americans to refrain from unnecessary travel. The airline industry has been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic and has sought to assure travelers that flying is safe. “We remain confident that this layered approach significantly reduces risk and are encouraged that science continues to confirm there is a very low risk of virus transmission onboard aircraft,” a spokesperson for Airlines for America, which advocates for major U.S. airlines, told The Hill this week.

Consumer sentiment hits pandemic high -Consumer sentiment in early March rose to its highest point level since the pandemic began a year ago, signaling optimism among Americans as the economic recovery starts to take hold. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, released Friday, rose 8.1 points to 83, the strongest showing since the coronavirus prompted lockdowns nationwide. The most recent reading comes amid a ramp-up in vaccinations and passage of the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that includes $1,400 stimulus checks for most Americans. "The gains were widespread across all socioeconomic subgroups and all regions, although the largest monthly gains were concentrated among households in the bottom third of the income distribution as well as those aged 55 or older," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist. Still, the survey indicated that consumers felt their own financial situations were not improving, even if they believed the broader economy was. "The best news for the economy is consumers expect to spend most in the service sector, the hardest-hit part of the economy," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, after the survey results came out. "The pent-up demand for services that have been unavailable, combined with pent-up savings, should provide a major boost to employment and GDP." The amount of consumer spending on the horizon has some economists warning about inflation risks. "Inflation expectations for the year ahead remained elevated, but consumers thought the inflation rate would fall back to lower levels over the longer term," Curtin said. States reap windfall as pot sales soar

 BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in February, Core CPI increased 0.1% - From the BLS:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 6.4 percent in February and accounting for over half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The electricity and natural gas indexes also increased, and the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.2 percent in February, with the index for food at home and the index for food away from home both rising. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February. The indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance all increased over the month. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and apparel all declined in February. The all items index rose 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending February, a larger increase than the 1.4-percent reported for the period ending in January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, a smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12 months ending January. The food index rose 3.6 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index increased 2.4 percent over that period.  CPI was at expectations in February, and core CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Higher Gas, Energy Prices Boost Consumer Inflation at Start of Year – WSJ --U.S. consumer prices picked up early this year as the pace of the economic recovery increased following a winter lull, buoyed by higher gasoline and energy costs.The consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for everyday items including food, clothing, cars and recreational activities—increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in February from the prior month, the Labor Department said Wednesday.Gasoline prices jumped 6.4% over the previous month, driving more than half of the overall increase, while electricity and natural gas prices rose 3.9%. New vehicle prices were flat and used vehicle prices fell for the fourth straight month, while apparel and medical care costs both fell. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, rose 0.1% in February versus January, and was up 1.3% from the year prior. Core prices had remained flat over the previous three months.The gain in overall prices marked a modest increase in inflation as demand for goods and services grew, and winter weather triggered boosted energy consumption. In recent weeks, the number of coronavirus cases has eased following a winter surge, local governments have relaxed business restrictions and households have spent more.Annual inflation also picked up, increasing by 1.7% in the year ended February, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis.February’s reading is the latest sign of an upswing in prices after nearly a year of muted overall inflation as the pandemic subdued consumer spending. The rise in the consumer-price index’s increase in 2020 was the smallest yearly increase since 2015. Rates on long-term Treasury bonds, an indicator of expected inflation, have swept steadily upward in recent months, albeit from historic lows.

California Drivers Rev Up Gasoline Demand in Biggest State - Northern Californians are taking to the open road in much greater numbers, an early signal that gasoline demand may be returning a year after the pandemic paralyzed the economy.Daily traffic on seven toll bridges in the San Francisco Bay area rose by an average of 13% in February compared with October, data from the Bay Area Toll Authority show. The change reversed a slump with February marking the first time the monthly total had risen since October. The increase came after Governor Gavin Newsom lifted lifted stay-at-home orders in late January that allowed businesses such as outdoor dining and personal-care services to resume.The boost in traffic in the nation’s most populous state points to early signs of recovery for the oil market after the pandemic pushed U.S. gasoline demand down to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Newsom said last week “the light at the end of the tunnel keeps getting brighter” with virus hospitalizations down and vaccinations topping 10 million; schools could begin reopening next month. The stay-at-home orders closed most of the state, once they were lifted, “you began to see the state quickly reopen from where it was, and a lot more people were getting out and about and on the roads again,” said James Allison, spokesman for the California Fuels and Convenience Alliance trade group.

 U.S. producer prices rise; consumers' inflation expectations ease (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, but considerable slack in the labor market could make it harder for businesses to pass on the higher costs to consumers. That was supported by a survey on Friday showing an easing in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations early this month, even as their confidence in the economy rose to a one-year high.  . Inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, a flexible average, by April. Part of the anticipated spike would be the result of price declines early in the pandemic washing out of the calculations. Many economists, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, do not expect the strength in inflation will persist beyond the so-called base effects.  The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% last month, with the costs of energy products and food surging, the Labor Department said. That followed a 1.3% jump in January, which was the biggest advance since December 2009. In the 12 months through February, the PPI accelerated 2.8%, the most since October 2018. The PPI increased 1.7% year-on-year in January. Last month's rise in the PPI was in line with economists' expectations. (Graphic: Inflation, ) Manufacturing and services industries have been flagging higher production costs as the year-long pandemic gums up the supply chain. Surveys this month showed measures of prices paid by manufacturers and services industries in February racing to levels last seen in 2008. These inflation jitters have boosted U.S. Treasury yields. The government has provided nearly $6 trillion in relief since the pandemic started in the United States in March 2020, with President Joe Biden on Thursday signing legislation for his $1.9 trillion package. At the same time, Fed is pumping in money through monthly bond purchases, raising fears in some quarters of the economy overheating. But the worst recession since the Great Depression, which started in February 2020, has left at least 20.1 million Americans on unemployment benefits. “Supply-chain issues are temporarily putting upward pressure on producer prices along with higher energy prices,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. “These pressures should begin to moderate. We expect growth in consumer prices to accelerate through the first half of this year, but this will be transitory.” Consumers’ one-year inflation expectations moderated to 3.1% in mid-March from 3.3% in February, the University of Michigan said in a separate report on Friday. Its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 83.0, the highest since last March, from a final reading of 76.8 in February.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Jump In Line With Estimates In January -- A report released by the Commerce Department on Monday showed wholesale inventories in the U.S. jumped in line with economist estimates in the month of January. The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories spiked by 1.3 percent in January after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in December. Economists had expected wholesale inventories to surge up by 1.3 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Inventories of durable goods shot up by 1.2 percent during the month, while inventories of non-durable goods jumped by 1.5 percent. The report also showed a substantial increase in wholesale sales, which soared by 4.9 percent in January after spiking by 1.9 percent in December. Sales of durable and non-durable goods both skyrocketed by 4.9 percent. With sales jumping by much more than inventories, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers dropped to 1.24 in January from 1.29 in December.

 Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 712,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 745,000 to 754,000. The 4-week moving average was 759,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,250 from 790,750 to 793,000.This does not include the 478,001 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 436,138 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 759,000.The previous week was revised up.The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).Regular state continued claims decreased to 4,144,000 (SA) from 4,337,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 8,387,194 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 7,329,172 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,454,740 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 4,468,389.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

 BLS: Job Openings "Changed Little" at 6.9 Million in January From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 6.9 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.3 million while total separations decreased to 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate changed little at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for January, the most recent employment report was for February. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in January to 6.917 million from 6.752 million in December. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 3.3% year-over-year. Note that job openings were declining a year ago prior to the pandemic. Quits were down 7.2% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

 SF Fed: Weather Reduced February Employment by About 100 Thousand --Every month, the San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment.The BLS reported 379 thousand jobs were added in February.​The San Francisco Fed estimates that weather adjusted employment gains were 482 thousand; about 100 thousand higher than the BLS reported. This table from Daniel Wilson at the SF Fed shows the BLS reported job gains for the last 6 months, and two estimates of the impact of weather.

The Employment Situation is Far Worse than the Unemployment Rate Indicates – Bill McBride –- The headline unemployment rate of 6.2% significantly understates the current situation.  Here is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (as of February 2021).  Then I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since early 2020, and the expected growth in the labor force.As the economy recovers, many of the people that left the labor force will probably return, and there will likely be more entrants into the labor force (although recent demographic data has been dismal).  Fed Chair Powell made a similar argument last month: Getting Back to a Strong Labor Market Excerpt: Employment in January of this year was nearly 10 million below its February 2020 level, a greater shortfall than the worst of the Great Recession's aftermath.  After rising to 14.8 percent in April of last year, the published unemployment rate has fallen relatively swiftly, reaching 6.3 percent in January. But published unemployment rates during COVID have dramatically understated the deterioration in the labor market. Most importantly, the pandemic has led to the largest 12-month decline in labor force participation since at least 1948.  Fear of the virus and the disappearance of employment opportunities in the sectors most affected by it, such as restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues, have led many to withdraw from the workforce. At the same time, virtual schooling has forced many parents to leave the work force to provide all-day care for their children. All told, nearly 5 million people say the pandemic prevented them from looking for work in January. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that many unemployed individuals have been misclassified as employed. Correcting this misclassification and counting those who have left the labor force since last February as unemployed would boost the unemployment rate to close to 10 percent in January.  This graph from the Fed shows the actually unemployment rate and some alternative estimates (mostly due to people leaving the labor force). It would be a mistake to just look at the headline unemployment rate to assess the current situation. The following graph - that I post each month - show the percent decline in employment since the start of each recession since WWII. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. At the worst of the Great Recession, employment was down Down 6.29% from the previous peak. Currently employment is down 6.21% - the current unemployment situation is about the same as the worst of the Great Recession (and there was no pandemic to contend with in 2009).

 Hispanic, Black Americans most likely to experience pandemic-related layoffs: poll  --Hispanic and Black Americans are most likely to experience layoffs related to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a poll from The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that was released on Friday.Thirty-eight percent of Hispanic Americans surveyed said that either they or someone in their households was laid off during the pandemic, while 29 percent of Black Americans reported the same. By comparison, 21 percent of white Americans reported that either they or someone in their household was laid off due to the pandemic.Sixty-two percent of Hispanic Americans and 54 percent of Black Americans say that have lost some form of household income during the pandemic — including job loss, pay cuts, cut in hours and unpaid leave. By comparison, 45 percent of white Americans said the same.Roughly 6 in 10 Hispanics and about half of Black Americans say the income loss has had some form of impact on their financial situation, compared to 4 in 10 white Americans.About half of Hispanics said they are still feeling the effects of income loss and that it would take at least six months to recover, compared to a third of Black Americans and a quarter of white Americans.More than 29 million coronavirus infections have been recorded in the U.S. since the pandemic began and more than 530,000 people have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The pandemic has disproportionally impacted communities of color, who are at higher risk for contracting the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Southern California dockworkers hit by COVID-19, work speedup as cargo backlog grows - Dockworkers, shipbuilders and logistics workers have continued to be hard hit as COVID-19 cases mount and workloads increase. In Southern California, hundreds of these workers have contracted the virus since the beginning of the year while dozens of cargo ships are being forced to anchor in the San Pedro Bay near Los Angeles and Long Beach due to increased imports and a declining workforce. Despite falling case rates since the beginning of the year, over 300,000 coronavirus infections have been reported in California in the last month, with Los Angeles remaining a major hotspot. Deaths nationwide due to the virus have reached a grim milestone of 520,000, and so far this year dozens of longshore workers in California have also succumbed to COVID-19. According to the Port of Los Angeles, about 800 of the 15,000-strong workforce are not on the job due to becoming infected with COVID-19 or quarantining after exposure to the virus. The prevalence of the disease among dockworkers has led to a situation in the last several months of a record-setting backlog of cargo being held up due to a lack of enough workers to unload ships. Cargo handling has slowed dramatically in Los Angeles and Long Beach where over 20 vessels are berthed and at least 30 remain anchored in the San Pedro Bay every week, hitting a high of 113 ships either docked or anchored in mid-February. Since December, some ships have remained sitting in the ocean for up to a week. As a result, dozens of cargo ships have relocated to Oakland, California ports in the San Francisco Bay area, creating a backlog there as well. An estimated 30,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) cargo containers remain at anchor, costing logistics companies millions of dollars per day in profits. Meanwhile, industry reports indicate growing demand by retailers who need to restock inventories as consumer spending has shifted during the pandemic away from services to the buying of goods, including online shopping. Workers who remain on the job are being stretched thin in order to meet the demands of the port authorities in collaboration with the unions. Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Eugene Seroka noted in a recent news conference that authorities are working closely with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) to bring as many workers back as possible, noting that workers are “processing cargo at record numbers, with the average worker out on the job more than 5.5 days a week. They [the ILWU] are putting every person on the job.”

 Projections hint at long recovery for US tourism hot spots -- A global pandemic that fell disproportionately on low-income Americans is likely to lead to a recovery that will leave communities heavy on those same workers struggling to keep up. A new analysis of projected job growth over the next decade shows growth slowing over the next decade among workers in the accommodation and food businesses, and especially so in states that rely heavily on tourism to fund their budgets. The report, an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, forecasts slowing growth in every state in the country over the next decade because of the pandemic.  But some states fare than others: Job growth is expected to slow by about 1.5 percent in states like Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut, and by only 1.1 percent in the District of Columbia. Those areas have higher percentages of their workforce in technology, government and financial sectors, industries that have held steady or thrived in the past year. Job growth is expected to slow the most in states like Nevada, Hawaii, Florida, Wyoming and Montana — the states where tourism dollars spent at hotels, restaurants and bars make up more significant shares of gross domestic product. “This is Vacationland America,” said Mark Muro, director of the Metropolitan Policy Program. “These places are highly specialized in tourism and therefore vacations and food, and those are areas where the BLS is projecting some hesitancy.” The BLS projects slowing growth across most industries, and especially in accommodation, food service, arts and recreation, and retail trade. Information and professional, scientific and technical industries are the exceptions likely to see faster growth over the next decade. About 16 percent of Nevada’s gross domestic product comes from tourism, and a quarter of its workers are employed in the leisure and hospitality industry, according to figures from S&P Global. About 1 in 5 workers in Hawaii are in the hospitality business, which generates 10 percent of the state GDP. Both states rely more heavily on those industries than any other. The metropolitan areas likely to experience the least disruption are all centered around college towns and manufacturing hubs. Among those areas are Princeton, N.J.; Silicon Valley, Calif; Elkhart, Ind.; Ann Arbor, Mich.; and the Research Triangle in North Carolina. Among those likely to see the steepest drop-offs in growth are the places where Americans go to relax: Atlantic City and Ocean City in New Jersey; Las Vegas; Myrtle Beach, S.C.; and Flagstaff, Ariz.

Pa. lifts moratorium on pandemic shutoffs and allows utilities to resume terminations March 31 -- The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission voted to resume service terminations on utilities for people who don’t pay by the end of the month. Meanwhile, people may submit SNAP applications over the phone. Seniors in the south-central part of the state have the opportunity to get free rides to get their COVID-19 vaccines.

Kentucky lawmakers advance bill to criminalize insulting police - Lawmakers in Kentucky have advanced a bill that, in part, seeks to criminalize insulting or taunting police officers in a way that could provoke a violent response. The bill says a person can be charged with the Class B misdemeanor of disorderly conduct if the individual “Accosts, insults, taunts, or challenges a law enforcement officer with offensive or derisive words, or by gestures or other physical contact, that would have a direct tendency to provoke a violent response from the perspective of a reasonable and prudent person.” A Class B misdemeanor in Kentucky is punishable by up to 90 days in jail and a fine of up to $250. The provision against insulting officers is included in a larger bill that seeks to increase penalties for violence and criminal acts related to riots. That legislation passed out of a state Senate committee last week and now goes to the full chamber for a vote. It comes in the aftermath of demonstrations that erupted after Louisville police shot and killed Breonna Taylor last summer. The death of Taylor, along with George Floyd and others last year at the hands of police, prompted months of protests that at times turned violent as people across the country called for an end to systemic racism and police brutality. The Kentucky legislation also says a person can be found guilty of disorderly conduct in the second degree “when in a public place and with intent to cause public inconvenience, annoyance, or alarm,” participates in violent or threatening behavior, makes “unreasonable noise,” refuses to obey orders to disperse or “creates a hazardous or physically offensive condition by any act that serves no legitimate purpose.” 

 COVID-19 shows Catholic schools are a necessity --For nearly a year, millions of students haven’t set foot in a classroom — an unimaginable disruption that has profoundly affected the lives of America’s youngest generation. I promise you, one day, historians will revisit our pandemic-era schooling decisions and wonder: What were they thinking? In the Philadelphia area, where I live, certain government-run suburban and city school districts are only beginning to reopen. Nearby Catholic schools, though, have managed to maintain in-person instruction, while reporting nearly zero COVID-19 spread.  The evidence is clear: remote learning — which remains pervasive in public schools — has negatively affected children, from a sense of isolation to medical and psychological issues. And parents aren’t stupid. They want the best education for their children that can be safely administered. That’s why they’re seeking educational alternatives, such as Catholic schools, now more than ever.Though Catholic schools serve as a critical lifeline for in-person learning throughout the U.S. — even in cities where teachers’ unions have fought against reopening school districts — these schools are staring down their own uncertain future.  For decades, Catholic schools have served families with just a fraction of public schools’ resources. Now they’re confronting their own challenges of being stretched too thin for too long. I’m worried that the economic fallout of pandemic restrictions will force many to close, including in Philadelphia. Where will these students turn if districts refuse to reopen? Greater Philadelphia’s Catholic schools have served families since before the Civil War, when Archbishop John Neumann began a parochial system that served immigrant children. For generations, these schools shaped countless lives. Their academic legacy ultimately expanded beyond Philadelphia’s borders and into the city’s suburbs.

Oregon governor issues executive order to reopen schools  --Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) issued an executive order on Friday ordering schools to reopen for in-person learning by April 19. The order requires all kindergarten through 5th grade schools to offer access to hybrid or full in-person learning by March 29 and by April 19 for grades 6 through 12. Brown’s order still requires schools to offer distance learning. She said that the Oregon Department of Education will be releasing updated guidance for school districts early next week. “On March 12, 2020, I issued my executive order closing Oregon schools for what was then an extended spring break. One year later, thanks to the hard work and smart choices of Oregonians to slow the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, I am so pleased to see over 174,000 students back in the learning environment that serves them best: in-person instruction,” Brown said in a statement. “While parents can keep their children in distance learning if they choose, this order will give every Oregon student the option to return to school this year,” she said. The governor first announced the order last week, attributing the decision to improved coronavirus case rates across the state. The move comes amid a bipartisan push to reopen schools as vaccinations increase and case counts decline. The Biden administration said on Thursday that it will be giving away $650 million in grants to schools to help fund testing efforts, and it is also looking to vaccinate all teachers and give schools guidance for reopenings.

 Oregon Governor issues executive order to force teachers and students back into schools - Oregon’s Democratic Governor Kate Brown issued an executive order on March 5 to herd students and teachers back into schools for in-person learning. The order states that “all public schools will operate delivering in-person instruction through either a fully on-site or a hybrid instructional model.” Kindergarten through fifth grade must reopen on or before the week of March 29, and grades 6-12 must reopen on or before the week of April 19. This order has been issued after Brown loosened restrictions for reopening in December, then prioritized the vaccination of teachers in January. Democrats in Oregon, across the West Coast and throughout the country are scrambling to implement the Biden administration’s key domestic policy of reopening all schools by the end of April. Brown’s executive order places teachers, staff and students under enormous pressure. Teachers are raising valid concerns about large class sizes, small teaching spaces and the difficulty of enforcing social distancing in schools. The mainstream media and politicians have sought to portray teachers who refuse to return as irrational, selfish and working against children’s interests, attempting to pit parents against educators. The stress has been so great that K-12 teachers’ satisfaction with their employers sank from 69 percent in March 2020 to 44 percent in October. The Center for State and Local Government Excellence recorded that 38 percent of public school educators have considered quitting their jobs during the pandemic. Teachers unions, such as the Oregon Education Association (OEA) and the Portland Association of Teachers (PAR), offer no opposition to the return to in-person instruction. None of the OEA’s local affiliates have voiced any major disagreements with Brown’s executive order, with OEA spokesman Rylee Ahnen stating, “We hear, understand, and share the frustration… teachers support returning to the classroom if done safely.” Ahnen emphasized that, regardless of the executive order, most districts were already planning to move to in-person learning in the coming weeks. Twenty percent of Oregon’s schools are already offering fully in-person learning, and 23 percent offer the hybrid model of both in-person and virtual learning.

Michigan high school student accidentally detonates homemade explosive in classroom --A Michigan high school student injured himself and four other students after accidentally detonating a homemade explosive device that he brought to school, police said Monday.The Newaygo Police Department was dispatched to Newaygo High School on Monday morning after an “explosion inside a classroom,” Michigan State Police confirmed in a statement on Twitter.The state police said that a 16-year-old student, who was not publicly identified, “accidentally detonated” the device that he brought to school.The 16-year-old was taken to the hospital with moderate to severe injuries. The four other injured students were taken to an area hospital for minor injuries, and a teacher at the school also sought medical treatment over reported inhalation concerns.“The investigation continues into what kind of material was involved in the explosion and the circumstances contributing,” the state police said in the Monday statement.Michigan State Police spokesperson Michelle Robinson said during a Monday press conference that officials do not believe the student with the device had “malicious intent” and that the detonation was an “isolated incident.”The high school was evacuated following the detonation, and all Newaygo County Schools went into lockdown, according to state police. Investigators executed a search warrant at a Newaygo home, though they did not provide any additional details on the ongoing investigation.

 Librarians are debating how to handle the Dr. Seuss controversy — but the books will stay on shelves for now - Bookstores will soon be without six Dr. Seuss titles found to be offensive, but library borrowers will still be able to find them on their shelves. Last Tuesday, Dr. Seuss Enterprises, which oversees the author's estate, said it would cease publication of six books found to have racially insensitive imagery.For libraries, the removal of offensive books is a complex issue. Leaving books on the shelves may lead to backlash, but pulling them could be seen as a form of censorship. "Libraries across the country are having conversations around how to balance our core values of intellectual freedom, with the harmful stereotypes depicted in many children's classics," said Olivia Gallegos, communications manager at the Denver Public Library. At the New York Public Library, the six Dr. Seuss titles are expected to be available until they're too worn out to be borrowed. When that happens, the library won't be able to replace them with new versions, so they won't be replaced. "In the meantime, librarians, who care deeply about serving their communities and ensuring accurate and diverse representation in our collections — especially children's books — will certainly strongly consider this information when planning storytimes, displays, and recommendations," said Angela Montefinise, NYPL senior director of communications.The American Library Association, which has a Bill of Rights and Code of Ethics for US libraries, offers guidelines for librarians. Deborah Caldwell-Stone, director of the ALA's 's Office for Intellectual Freedom, said she can't speculate on how each individual library will handle the books, since US public libraries are mostly controlled by local governments. "But an author's or publisher's decision to stop publishing a book should not be grounds alone for removing a book from a library's collection," Caldwell-Stone said.She recommended librarians seek out ALA guidelines on Equity, Diversity, Inclusion, and other topics. Insider this week asked librarians around the country for their thoughts about the six books. Some said the books presented an opportunity for parents to broach difficult conversations with readers of all ages. With the help of a librarian and the right context, they could be powerful tools for combating systematic racism, the librarians said. The Denver Public library didn't have plans to pull any Dr. Seuss books from its collection. Like most libraries, DPL makes removal decisions based on whether books are in demand, have up-to-date information, and are in good condition, said Gallegos. At the Los Angeles Public Library, librarians encourage parents and guardians to help their young ones select books, said a library spokesperson."Our collection includes the six Dr. Seuss titles that will be discontinued by Dr. Seuss Enterprises. We recognize the challenges this presents, and our goal is to promote critical thinking and evaluation of literature among patrons of all ages," said Peter Persic, director of public relations and marketing.  None of the librarians contacted by Insider said they would remove the books from the shelves, at least for the time being.

Boston University to switch back to on-campus learning in the fall -Boston University (BU) is planning to switch to on-campus learning in the fall, the school’s president announced Friday. BU President Robert Brown cited an increased number of vaccinations as the reason for the decision an email to students and parents shared on Twitter by The Daily Free Press, the school’s independent student newspaper. “The expected efficacy of the vaccines and comprehensive immunization will make possible the full return to learning in our classrooms, studios, and laboratories without the social distancing protocols that have been in use since last September,” Brown wrote. “We do not plan to continue to offer our classes in the Learn from Anywhere format except in some very specific graduate programs.” The school’s Learn from Anywhere model allowed courses to be taught in a hybrid model of in-person and remote learning to account for circumstances caused by the pandemic, such as personal health reasons or travel restrictions, according to its website. Brown wrote that the school is assuming that any students, staff and faculty who wishes to be vaccinated either will be or can get vaccinated at BU before the semester starts. He also said the school is assuming that international travel will resume and mores student visas will be issued for international students due to the “diminished presence of the disease worldwide.” However, Brown warned that the university will “still be vigilant” and will continue its community testing program. “As campus life resumes, we are mindful that COVID-19 will not have eradicated. We will continue to be vigilant, recognizing the potential for new variants of the virus of the virus to reduce the efficacy of the vaccines,” he wrote. According to the school’s COVID-19 dashboard, only 11 students and no faculty or staff tested positive on Thursday. Since July 27, 1,642 members of the BU community have tested positive.

UC Davis will pay students not to travel during spring break  UC Davis is offering some students “grants” of $75 to encourage them not to travel during spring break this year amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The program, which is a partnership between the university and the city of Davis, Calif., is accepting up to 750 applications from students to receive the funds, which can be spent at “selected Davis stores,” Gary May, the chancellor of UC Davis, said in a statement last week.Students can purchase “supplies” in four categories using the $75, including “Get Active, Get Artsy, Home Improvement and Let’s Stay In,” according to May’s statement.The university’s spring break is from March 20 through March 24. Applicants for the grant must be staying in Davis for the spring break and have a scheduled COVID-19 test during the week.Colleges and universities across the country have either canceled their traditional spring breaks or offered a shorter break for students in an effort to discourage gatherings and travel during the coronavirus pandemic. California has confirmed over 3.5 million COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic, including 4,686 cases on Monday. The state has reported over 54,000 coronavirus fatalities, according to the Los Angeles Times.

 UC-Berkeley Unveils Plan For Racial Quota -The University of California-Berkeley is on its way to becoming a Hispanic-Serving Institution, which means that at least 25 percent of undergraduate students identify as "Chicanx/Latinx." UC-Berkeley's Chancellor Carol Christ announced in August 2018 her “intention to set the UC Berkeley campus on a journey to become an HSI by 2027,”  according to the Chancellor’s Task Force on Becoming a Hispanic Serving Institution's report, published in December 2020. A Hispanic-Serving Institution (HSI) is defined as one that "has an enrollment of undergraduate full-time equivalent students that is at least 25 percent Hispanic students at the end of the award year immediately preceding the date of application.” The report states that Christ would like to see 25 percent of undergraduate students "self-identify as Chicanx/Latinx" by 2027. "[Christ] identified this priority as one of the boldest goals in the campus’ strategic plan—for at least 25 percent of enrolled undergraduate students to self-identify as Chicanx/Latinx, for the University to be a preferred destination for Pell Grant eligible students, and for every student to thrive at Berkeley and to find belonging in all dimensions of the campus towards a true exemplification of comprehensive excellence," the report said. The HSI task force is divided into three implementation phases from 2020-2027. Phase three’s goal (2025-2027) is to apply for HSI Designation. Six other UC schools are already HSI designated: UC-Davis, UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Riverside, UC-Merced, UC-Santa Cruz, and UC-Irvine. In 2020, UC-Berkeley had a 17.9 percent Latino student population, roughly 7.1 percent away from meeting the enrollment requirement, according to the report overview.

What Does the Covid-19 Stimulus Bill Mean for Loan Forgiveness, Financial Aid and College Students? – WSJ - Congress passed the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief legislation Wednesday, which provides about $40 billion for higher education including provisions for financial aid and student loan forgiveness. Here’s what college students and parents need to know about the bill, which President Biden is expected to sign into law this week. This isn’t the first time federal funds have been allocated for higher education institutions and students seeking relief from the pandemic, but it is the largest allocation to date. In March 2020, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (Cares) Act established the Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund, and allocated about $14 billion for emergency higher education funding. In December, higher education institutions received an additional $23 billion through the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act. Now, institutions will receive about $40 billion. This amount is less than the $97 billion the American Council on Education estimated schools and students would need to recover from pandemic-related losses, but the higher education lobbying group praised the legislation as the “largest federal effort so far to assist students and families struggling to cope with lost jobs or reduced wages and colleges and universities facing precipitous declines in revenues and soaring new expenses.” At least 50% of the total funds each institution receives must go directly to students for emergency financial aid.  When each institution receives the funding, it gets to decide which students receive aid. While some institutions might choose to give the majority of the aid to Pell Grant recipients, others might make it more broadly available. But schools must also consider federal restrictions on the funding. When the first round of funding came out via the Cares Act, schools were restricted by “Title IV student aid under Section 484 of the Higher Education Act.” This meant students who received aid needed to meet certain criteria, such as having a valid Social Security number and having a high school diploma, GED or completion of high school in an approved home-school setting. But for the December round of funding, which many colleges are still distributing, and the round of funding that was just approved, institutions are directed to give priority to students with exceptional financial needs.However, it is still not clear whether noncitizens, such as international students or those in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, will qualify.Students can use the funds from this legislation to cover any component of the cost of their attendance, as well as any emergency costs that have arisen due to the coronavirus, including tuition, food, housing, healthcare, mental healthcare and child care, says Megan Coval, the vice president of policy and federal relations at the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.

 Mississippi governor signs law banning transgender athletes from women's sports (Reuters) - Mississippi’s Republican governor on Thursday signed legislation banning transgender athletes from competing in women and girls’ sports, becoming the first U.S. state to do so this year. Governor Tate Reeves said a January executive order issued by President Joe Biden that protects transgender women and girls’ ability to compete on sports teams that conform with their gender identity left the state “no choice” but to enact the Mississippi Fairness Act. “We will protect our young girls and ensure them a fair shot in public school sports. They should not be forced to compete against biological males,” Tate said on Facebook.Some 37 bills regulating transgender athletes have been introduced in 20 states this year, according to LGBTQ advocates at the Human Rights Campaign. “Governor Reeves’ eagerness to become the face of the latest anti-transgender push is appalling, as he chooses fear and division over facts and science,” said Human Rights Campaign President Alphonso David.

 Adult life expectancy falling for those without a college degree - American adults without a college degree have experienced greater reductions in life expectancy when compared to their more-educated counterparts, USC and Princeton researchers have found. The study reveals that after nearly a century of declining mortality up to the late 1990s, the progress continued into the 21st century for more-educated Americans but stalled for the population as a whole and reversed for the two-thirds of Americans who do not have a college degree. The study appeared Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The researchers examined overall mortality in the United States using records spanning from 1990 to 2018. Assuming that mortality rates at each age remained constant at their level in each year, they then calculated how long a 25-year-old could expect to live up until the age of 75. The age range (25-75 years old) coincides with increasing "deaths of despair" in the United States from the opioid epidemic, alcohol and suicide, as well as a slowing of progress on deaths from cardiovascular disease. Study authors Anne Case and Sir Angus Deaton, who have previously documented the toll of deaths of despair on Americans, said their latest findings demonstrated the increasing influence of educational attainment on a person's health and economic security in the U.S. "The United States has this increasingly sharp societal division between people who have a college degree and those who don't," said Deaton, Presidential Professor of Economics at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, Distinguished Fellow at the USC Schaeffer Center and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of International Affairs, Emeritus, at Princeton. "If you don't have a four-year degree, not only have your wages been falling for 50 years but our study shows your adult life expectancy is also decreasing."

For teens, outdoor recreation during the pandemic linked to improved well-being --A study from North Carolina State University found outdoor play and nature-based activities helped buffer some of the negative mental health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic for adolescents. Researchers said the findings, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, point to outdoor play and nature-based activities as a tool to help teenagers cope with major stressors like the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as future natural disasters and other global stressors. Researchers also underscore the mental health implications of restricting outdoor recreation opportunities for adolescents, and the need to increase access to the outdoors. "Families should be encouraged that building patterns in outdoor recreation can give kids tools to weather the storms to come," said Kathryn Stevenson, a study co-author and assistant professor of parks, recreation and tourism management at NC State. "Things happen in life, and getting kids outside regularly is an easy way to build some mental resilience." In the survey, conducted from April 30 to June 15, 2020, researchers asked 624 adolescents between the ages of 10 to 18 years to report their participation in outdoor recreation both before the pandemic and after social distancing measures were in effect across the United States. They also asked adolescents about their subjective well-being, a measure of happiness, and mental health. The findings revealed the pandemic had an impact on the well-being of many teens in the survey, with nearly 52 percent of adolescents reporting declines in subjective well-being. They also saw declines in teens' ability to get outside, with 64 percent of adolescents reporting their outdoor activity participation fell during the early months of the pandemic. Despite these declines in outdoor activity participation, nearly 77 percent of teens surveyed believed that spending time outside helped them deal with stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

 Variant B.1.1.7 of COVID-19 associated with a significantly higher mortality rate --Variant B.1.1.7 of COVID-19 associated with a significantly higher mortality rate, research shows The highly infectious variant of COVID-19 discovered in Kent, which swept across the UK last year before spreading worldwide, is between 30 and 100 per cent more deadly than previous strains, new analysis has shown. A pivotal study, by epidemiologists from the Universities of Exeter and Bristol, has shown that the SARS-CoV-2 variant, B.1.1.7, is associated with a significantly higher mortality rate amongst adults diagnosed in the community compared to previously circulating strains. The study compared death rates among people infected with the new variant and those infected with other strains. It showed that the new variant led to 227 deaths in a sample of 54906 patients - compared to 141 amongst the same number of closely matched patients who had the previous strains. With the new variant already detected in more than 50 countries worldwide, the analysis provides crucial information to governments and health officials to help prevent its spread. The study is published in the British Medical Journal on Wednesday, 10 March 2021.

Covid-19 risk increases with airborne pollen -In the spring of 2020, the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic appeared to coincide with the tree pollen season in the northern hemisphere. These observations prompted an international team of researchers to conduct an extensive investigation: The scientists wanted to know whether there is a demonstrable link between airborne pollen concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 infection rates.The team showed that airborne pollen can account for, on average, 44 percent of the variation in infection rates, with humidity and air temperature also playing a role in some cases. During intervals without lockdown regulations, infection rates were on average 4 percent higher with every increase of 100 grains of airborne pollen per cubic meter. In some German cities, concentrations of up to 500 pollen grains per cubic meter per day were recorded during the study - which led to an overall increase in infection rates of more than 20 percent. In regions where lockdown rules were in effect, however, the infection numbers were on average only half as high at comparable pollen concentrations.High pollen concentrations lead to a weaker immune response in airways to viruses that can cause coughs and colds. When a virus enters the body, infected cells usually send out messenger proteins. This is also the case with SARS-CoV-2. These proteins, known as antiviral interferons, signal nearby cells to escalate their antiviral defenses to keep the invaders at bay. Additionally, an appropriate inflammation response is activated to fight the viruses. But if airborne pollen concentrations are high, and pollen grains are inhaled with the virus particles, fewer antiviral interferons are generated. The beneficial inflammatory response itself is also affected. Therefore, on days with a high concentration of pollen, it can lead to an increase in the number of respiratory illnesses. This also holds true for Covid-19. Whether individuals are allergic to the different pollen types is irrelevant.

Humidity in breath makes cotton masks more effective at slowing the spread of COVID-19 - Researchers have come up with a better way to test which fabrics work best for masks that are meant to slow the spread of COVID-19. By testing those fabrics under conditions that mimic the humidity of a person's breath, the researchers have obtained measurements that more accurately reflect how the fabrics perform when worn by a living, breathing person.The new measurements show that under humid conditions, the filtration efficiency -- a measure of how well a material captures particles -- increased by an average of 33% in cotton fabrics. Synthetic fabrics performed poorly relative to cotton, and their performance did not improve with humidity. The material from medical-procedure masks also did not improve with humidity, though it performed in roughly the same range as cottons.This study, conducted by scientists at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the Smithsonian's Museum Conservation Institute, was published in ACS Applied Nano Materials.An earlier study by the same research team showed that dual-layer masks made of tightly woven cotton fabrics with a raised nap, such as flannels, are particularly effective at filtering breath. That study was conducted under relatively dry conditions in the lab, and its main finding still stands. "Cotton fabrics are still a great choice," said NIST research scientist Christopher Zangmeister. "But this new study shows that cotton fabrics actually perform better in masks than we thought."

New Studies To Explore Whether Chemicals In Firefighter Foam Contributed To COVID-19 Pandemic - Researchers plan to conduct three new studies to examine whether toxic chemicals in firefighting foam and other products, known as per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), may have contributed to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States, or potentially make vaccines less effective. The studies are being conducted by researchers at the University of Arizona, and are based on previous findings that suggest PFAS exposure can hinder the immune system, making individuals more vulnerable to infections, such as the novel coronavirus, according to a report by Tucson.com.  One study, known as Arizona Heroes, will look at data on more than 3,000 firefighters, as well as other first-responders and workers on the front lines of the pandemic. About 1,000 of those first responders either had COVID-19 at the beginning of the study, or contracted it later. The researchers seek to recruit another 1,000 subjects who have had COVID-19 and have not yet been vaccinated. Another of the studies, titled Recover, will look at front-line workers nationwide. The third study, Paces, will collect blood from 100 to 120 firefighters in Arizona and Florida who have already had COVID-19, and will measure the levels of PFAS in their blood. Only one similar study has been conducted to date. That was by researchers from Harvard and Denmark, who found those with higher levels of PFAS chemicals in their blood tended to suffer more severe cases of COVID-19. PFAS were first introduced into the manufacturing industry in the 1940’s, because of their ability to resist heat, grease, stains, and water. However, since then the chemicals have been linked to a myriad of adverse health effects including liver damage, thyroid disease, decreased fertility, high cholesterol, obesity, hormone suppression, and cancer. The chemical substances are used to manufacture a number of products, including some firefighting foams, food packaging materials, pizza boxes, popcorn bags, fabrics, nonstick cooking pans, and other products.  However, it is perhaps most known for its use in aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs) used by military and civilian firefighters. It is projected to take thousands of years for PFAS to degrade, and past studies have shown their ability to enter and stay in the environment and human body through the air, dust, food, soil, and water. Previous U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) studies have shown PFAS chemicals primarily settle into the blood, kidney and liver, and could likely be detected in the blood of 98% of the U.S. population.

15-year-old COVID-19 long-hauler has 'disease of the elderly' - Delaney DePue, a 15-year-old in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, used to train 20 hours a week for competitive dance. Now, even running errands can leave her short of breath, Kaiser Health News's Carmen Heredia Rodriguez reported.  Her downturn began after contracting COVID-19 last summer, a condition from which she still hasn't seemed to recover. Doctors have diagnosed her with chronic inflammatory lung disease, a condition researchers say is "considered a disease of the elderly" and is usually caused by smoking. While young people tend to fare well if exposed to the coronavirus, some do get seriously ill, and fewer die. And others, like DePue, are among a growing pool of so-called long haulers, or COVID-19 survivors who continue to battle wide-ranging symptoms, including fatigue, mental fog, severe body aches, heart palpitations, and even delirium. Health professionals don't know exactly why these symptoms develop, or why some people with COVID-19 recover quickly and others are unwittingly it for the long haul.  COPD is an incurable, progressive disease that makes it difficult to breathe. People with it can experience wheezing, chest tightness, coughing, respiratory infections, and fatigue due to lung damage. It's unusual in children because their lungs haven't had the time to be damaged to that extent; typically, kids with COPD symptoms have asthma or cystic fibrosis, not COPD. But DePue's case suggests COVID-19 may accelerate lung damage in some kids, as it does in some adults with the virus. One imaging study of people who'd died from COVID-19 found "persistent and extensive lung damage," helping doctors better understand long haulers, Reuters reported.  "The findings indicate that COVID-19 is not simply a disease caused by the death of virus-infected cells, but is likely the consequence of these abnormal cells persisting for long periods inside the lungs," As of February 25, nearly 3.17 million children have tested positive for COVID-19, according to a report out of the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association. That's 13.1% of the total cases among states who report by age.  Most have no or mild symptoms, but around 2,000 have developedmultisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, a potentially deadly issue involving a high fever and inflammation. Black and Hispanic kids represent most cases of serious illness or death from COVID-19.

New study warns Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines could be far less effective against South Africa variant - Despite the increasing global circulation of COVID-19 vaccines, the variants of the virus that emerged in late 2020 may disrupt the world’s mission to achieve herd immunity, according to a new study approved for publishing in the journal Nature.Researchers specifically look at the South African COVID-19 mutation, scientifically dubbed B.1.351, analyzing whether or not these pathogens are more resistant to immune responses prompted by the available vaccines.Samples of biological fluids, namely convalescent plasma and vaccinee sera, were collected and studied for the volume of COVID-19-neutralizing antibodies contained among volunteers who recovered from a documented COVID-19 infection. This highlights concern for potential reinfection.When analyzing volunteer vaccinee sera — or fluid from individuals who had been fully vaccinated — the results were similarly grim; neutralizing activity was “significantly lower” against B.1.351, regardless of which vaccine patients received. Moderna’s vaccine candidate was found to be 12.4 times less effective against the South African variant, and Pfizer’s was found to have a reduced effectiveness by about 10.3 times. A silver lining could be that both vaccine candidates held up well against the U.K. variant of COVID-19.“The overall findings are worrisome, particularly in light of recent reports that both Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines showed a substantial drop in efficacy in South Africa,” the authors concluded. First originating in its namesake South Africa, B.1.351 has quickly spread across the globe. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports 81 confirmed cases across 20 separate jurisdictions in the U.S. The first known case was detected in the U.S. in January 2021, with official CDC statements calling for more research on the variant. Both the U.K. and the South African version of COVID-19 see mutation specifically in the spike protein’s binding sites, which constrains how antibodies produced by the human immune system can fight the virus. “If the rampant spread of the virus continues and more critical mutations accumulate, then we may be condemned to chasing after the evolving SARS-CoV-2 continually, as we have long done for influenza virus,” the authors warn.

Covid-19 Vaccines Targeting Multiple Variants Are in the Works at Moderna, Novavax – WSJ --Drugmakers are crafting Covid-19 vaccines that would target more than one strain of the virus, hoping to strengthen the immunization campaign against the pathogen as it evolves. Researchers at Moderna, Novavax, and the University of Oxford are designing the shots, known as multivalent vaccines, to protect not only against the form of the virus commonly circulating globally but also potentially contagious strains that have emerged or might in the future. The work belongs to a range of efforts vaccine makers and drug researchers are undertaking to get ahead of variants like the one identified in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil. Research indicates some vaccines currently in use generate weaker immune responses against the strain found in South Africa in particular, though there isn’t evidence indicating that current vaccines don’t protect against variants. To be safe, companies are exploring strengthening the protection conferred by existing shots by adding doses, updating the shots or crafting a booster. A multivalent shot is another approach in the works. As highly transmissible coronavirus variants sweep across the world, scientists are racing to understand why these new versions of the virus are spreading faster, and what this could mean for vaccine efforts. New research says the key may be the spike protein, which gives the coronavirus its unmistakable shape. Illustration: Nick Collingwood/WSJ Testing multivalent vaccine candidates in people hasn’t started yet. Some companies hope to begin in the spring so that shots can be available for use as early as the summer. Health experts say the broad-acting shots could make a difference in the pandemic fight by stymieing mutations to the coronavirus that could help it evade existing vaccines before widespread herd immunity is achieved. “If there are two or three predominant world-wide strains, and infection or immunity to one doesn’t protect against the others, then we may need multivalent vaccines,” said Buddy Creech, director of Vanderbilt University’s vaccine research program. Multivalent vaccines are a widely used weapon against other viruses, such as measles, mumps and rubella. Some pneumonia vaccines target as many as 23 strains, while most flu shots target four different influenza strains. ‘Nobody wants to be in a position where a variant is suddenly infecting everybody all over again.’ To defeat a variety of variants, the vaccines essentially blend together a number of different shots. So long as researchers pick the right combinations, the vaccines should work, though not if the mixture spreads protection too thin, vaccine experts say. Multivalent vaccines would be especially useful against Covid-19, virologists and vaccine experts say, if scientists are able to predict which mutations might spread, as is done with influenza each year.

Detroit mayor reportedly said no to J&J vaccine shipment - Detroit's mayor, Mike Duggan, said in a press briefing on Thursday that he would not accept a first-time shipment of Johnson & Johnson's single-shot coronavirus vaccine, CNBC reported on Friday. Duggan reportedly cited concerns about the vaccine's efficacy. The vaccine, according to reporting from Insider, has been proven to be 66% effective at preventing coronavirus overall, and data from Johnson & Johnson shows a 100% prevention rate of hospitalizations from the virus.The FDA approved the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for "emergency use" by Americans over 18 years of age on February 27."Johnson & Johnson is a very good vaccine," Duggan told media outlets including CNBC on Thursday. "Moderna and Pfizer are the best. And I am going to do everything I can to make sure that residents of the city of Detroit get the best."On Friday, Andy Slavitt, a White House coronavirus advisor, told the press that Duggan's comments had been misconstrued, according to reporting from US News and World Report.Duggan also reportedly said that Detroit had enough supply of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines to inoculate everyone eligible in the city. He told the city council in a statement reported on CNBC that "as vaccine eligibility expands, Detroit will open a second site offering Johnson & Johnson vaccines." According to Detroit's coronavirus tracking dashboard, 11.3% of the city's population is currently vaccinated.

Women reported worse side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine: CDC study -- More women reported they experienced side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine, a CDC study showed.The survey conducted by the CDC analyzed more than 13 million vaccine recipients as of January 13.Women made up nearly 80% of the 7,000 recipients who reported side effects. . Women made up a majority of those reporting adverse effects from the COVID-19 vaccine, a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed. Nearly 7,000 people reported to the CDC that they were experiencing side effects after receiving the vaccine, including symptoms of headaches, fatigue, and dizziness. Women made up nearly 80% of those who reported side effects. The survey conducted last month by researchers at the CDC analyzed safety data on the more than 13 million recipients of the coronavirus vaccine as of January 13.  Over the course of a month, a total of 13,794,904 COVID-19 vaccines were administered to Americans — of which 8,436,863 (61.2%) were administered to women. Shelly Kendeffy, a medical technician in State College in Pennsylvania who received the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, told The New York Times that immediately after receiving the shot, she felt fine. However, by the afternoon: "My teeth were chattering, but I was sweating — like soaked, but frozen," Kendeffy told The Times. She said six of her seven female colleagues also experienced symptoms like body aches, chills, and fatigue, and the seventh woman who didn't display flu-like symptoms said she spent the night after the vaccine vomiting. Of the eight male colleagues who were also vaccinated, Kendeffy said one had soreness, another got a headache, two felt fatigued, and four felt nothing at all. Sabra Klein, a microbiologist and immunologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told The Times she was "not at all surprised," given that "this sex difference is completely consistent with past reports of other vaccines." In 2013, a study conducted by scientists revealed that adult women were at higher risk of reactions than men for the 2009 pandemic flu vaccine, and another study researching anaphylactic reactions to influenza vaccines between 1990 and 2016 showed that women accounted for a majority of the adverse responses.

Utah mom Kassidi Kurill dies days after second dose of COVID-19 vaccine - A 39-year-old single mom in Utah with no underlying medical conditions died four days after receiving her second dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, according to a report. Kassidi Kurill, a mother of one from Ogden, received the vaccine due to her work as a surgical tech for several plastic surgeons, KUTV reported. “She was absolutely fine with getting it. In fact, she told all of us, ‘It’s fine, you guys should all get it,’” her father, Alfred Hawley, told the outlet. Kurill experienced a sore arm after the first jab of Moderna, but had no other side effects. But things took a tragic turn after she received her second dose on Feb. 1. “She came in early and said her heart was racing and she felt like she needed to get to the emergency room,” Hawley said. When they arrived at the ER, Kurill was throwing up. Hawley, a retired fighter pilot, told doctors his daughter had just received her second shot. “They did a blood test and immediately came back and said she was very, very sick, and her liver was not functioning,” he told KUTV. Kurill’s older sister Kristin, who lives in Arizona, said she knew her sister had gone to the hospital, but the speed at which she deteriorated was “so unexpected.” She thought her sister would get an IV and be back home in an hour, but Hawley knew they were not going home anytime soon. Kurill was soon flown to Intermountain Medical Center in Murray, a trauma center, as her liver was failing and a transplant was believed to be her best chance at survival. Kurill’s parents volunteered to donate a portion of their livers but never got the chance to offer the lifesaving gift when their daughter’s liver, kidneys and heart shut down. She died 30 hours after arriving at the hospital. An autopsy was performed on Kurill’s body but the state Medical Examiner’s Office could not comment on the case due to privacy laws, according to KUTV.

People who've had COVID-19 might only need one vaccine jab — and saving shots on them could free up millions of doses for others -Experts are divided on whether people who have already had COVID-19 need a full coronavirus vaccine course to protect them from reinfection. Early studies show these people produce robust immune responses after just one dose of two-dose COVID-19 vaccines, such as those made by Pfizer and BioNTech, AstraZeneca and Oxford University, and Moderna.Some experts are arguing that waiving the second shot for these people would be safe, and would free up vaccines for others. Effectively, they say a previous COVID-19 infection could act like the first shot. France made this position its official policy on February 12.   Other experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading infectious-disease expert in the US, have said it is too early to make this call — but even he says the results of these early trials are "really quite impressive."  More than 115 million people have been infected with COVID-19 worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University. That figure includes more than 28.8 million people in the US, more than 4.2 million in the UK, and upwards of 3.8 million in France.  Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical advisor, told NBC on February 21 that the immunity "boost" for giving a single COVID-19 vaccine shot to people who have had the virus was "enormous," and the data was "really quite impressive." The US government was therefore "looking very carefully" at whether one dose was enough — but it was too early to make a change yet, Fauci said.  A US study of more than 100 people showed that those previously infected with COVID-19 had an antibody response 10 times higher after one dose of vaccine than people who hadn't been infected and received two doses.The study's authors, from Mount Sinai, New York, also said that those who previously had COVID-19 experienced more side-effects after immunization — such as a more painful or redder injection site —  than those who hadn't been infected. Giving just one shot could lessen those side effects, they said.Another US group from Maryland medical school found that healthcare workers who had been previously infected had a 500-fold increase in antibody response from baseline at 14 days, after a single shot. "The response was bigger and faster, than those who had not had COVID-19," Mohammad Sajadi, associate professor of Medicine at the Institute of Human Virology at Maryland University, told Insider. The study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on March 1.

 Second shot of COVID-19 vaccine may not be necessary in previously infected individuals -- Mount Sinai -A single shot of one of the currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines may be sufficient to provide immunity to individuals who have previously been infected by the virus, thus eliminating the need for a second dose and helping to stretch severely limited vaccine supplies, a study from Mount Sinai has found. Such a change in public health policy could also spare these individuals the unnecessary side effects of a second dose of vaccine, which researchers found to be significantly greater in individuals with pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. A letter to the editor was published today in the New England Journal of Medicine detailing the study."We showed that the antibody response to the first vaccine dose in people with pre-existing immunity is equal to or even exceeds the response in uninfected people after the second dose," . "For that reason, we believe that a single dose of vaccine is sufficient for people who have already been infected by SARS-CoV-2 to reach immunity." In their study of 109 individuals with and without previous SARS-CoV-2 immunity, Mount Sinai researchers found that the former group developed antibodies within days of the first dose of vaccine at a rate 10 to 20 times higher than those who were uninfected, and at a more than tenfold rate after the second dose. "These findings suggest that a single dose of vaccine elicits a very rapid immune response in individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19," says Dr. Krammer. "In fact, that first dose immunologically resembles the booster (second) dose in people who have not been infected."The team also investigated systemic reactions after the first dose of vaccine in a second group of 231 individuals, 83 of whom had tested positive for COVID-19, and 148 who had not. While the vaccines were generally well tolerated, injection site symptoms -- including pain, swelling, and reddening of the skin - were found in both sub-groups. In recipients with pre-existing immunity, however, side effects occurred with a significantly higher frequency, including fatigue, headache, chills, fever, and muscle or joint pain.

As US states reopen businesses and schools, experts warn of “hurricane” surge of COVID-19 -- With states throughout the US reopening businesses and schools, health experts are warning of a surge of COVID-19 cases in the coming months as new variants take hold across the country. Epidemiologists and other health care experts warned Sunday that the current plateau in the number of coronavirus infections in the United States is only temporary and could be followed by a new and more terrible upsurge, particularly if the American population follows the lead of state governments that are ending mask mandates and other restrictions. The starkest warning came from Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former coronavirus adviser to the Biden transition and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. He appeared on the NBC program “Meet the Press” and declared, “we are in the eye of the hurricane right now. It appears that things are going very well. You can see blue skies.” But the reality was a new storm coming, he said. He cited the upsurge in B117, the so-called UK variant, which has gone from one to four percent of the viruses analyzed four weeks ago to 30-40 percent today. “And what we’ve seen in Europe, when we hit that 50 percent mark, you see cases surge. So right now, we do have to keep America as safe as we can from this virus by not letting up on any of the public health measures we’ve taken. And we need to get people vaccinated as quickly as we can.” While congratulating the Biden administration on speeding up vaccine distribution, he pointed out that more than half of American seniors, the most vulnerable age group in terms of coronavirus deaths, have still not been vaccinated, including large numbers living in long-term care facilities. Dr. Osterholm added a warning about school reopenings, pointing out that the B117 variant is especially infectious in school settings and that large clusters of infections have been found in his home state of Minnesota, connected with the resumption of high school sports. At this point his host Chuck Todd hurriedly ended the interview.

3 top health experts say the US is on the brink of another COVID-19 surge thanks to the variant first found in the UK, just as states relax restrictions - Top public-health officials in the US on Sunday warned of another surge in COVID-19 cases if states relax restrictions too soon.Mississippi, Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, and most recently Texas have lifted compulsory mask-wearing in public, despite health officials advising against it. Dr. Celine Gounder, a US infectious-diseases specialist and epidemiologist, said in a CNN interview on Sunday that the coronavirus variant first identified in the UK, which is more infectious, was spreading rapidly across America."That strain is increasing exponentially. It's spiking up," she said. "So we are probably right now on a tipping point of another surge."More than 3,000 cases of the variant have been reported in the US, CDC data from Sunday showed.The number of new daily cases of COVID-19 has dropped to fewer than 70,000, data from Johns Hopkins University showed. This is down from more than 240,000 new daily cases earlier this year. But Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US' top infectious-disease expert, told CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday that the numbers were still "really very high.""Plateauing at a level of 60,000 to 70,000 new cases per day is not an acceptable level. That is really very high," Fauci said."We do want to come back carefully and slowly about pulling back on mitigation methods. But don't turn that switch on and off because it really would be risky to have yet again another surge," he said.Fauci added that the coronavirus strain first found in New York isn't widespread yet, but is spreading beyond the New York City metropolitan area. Health officials are also monitoring four other variants in the US, first found in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and California.Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the US is in the "eye of the hurricane."He said the coronavirus variant first identified in the UK "is about to come upon us," adding that "it's wreaking havoc in parts of Europe."

Reckless governors are threatening COVID-19 progress  -As progress continues with the Biden-Harris administration’s vaccine effort, there’s much to be hopeful about: cases numbers have been driven down substantially from their January high, vaccination rates are among the fastest in the world and hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have plummeted. These facts alone have been enough to buoy the spirits of countless citizens exhausted by the mental and physical toll the past year has caused.  But although we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel, we aren’t there yet. Reckless and premature rollbacks in states like Texas and Mississippi — and soon to be others —  threaten to erode the hard-won progress we’ve made and create pockets of potential new infections. As we face the growing threat of alarming virus variants, the best tools we still have in the race to vaccinate a majority of Americans continue to be mask-wearing and physical distancing. Here’s why. Although cases have dropped significantly around the country, the outbreak in Texas is as bad as it was this summer. On July 2, Texas recorded over 7,915 cases and 44 deaths — an alarming figure that led Gov. Greg Abbot (R) to finally institute a state-wide mask mandate. Yet on the same day that he announced the mask mandate was ending, there were also 7,747 cases and some 271 deaths.  And the current outbreak in Texas is still worsening. Cases in the Lone Star state are up 27 percent from the end of February to early March, while deaths remain alarmingly high: the seven-day average death rate so far in March has been 216 — or about a quarter of all deaths in the U.S. The situation in Mississippi, which also rolled back most of its pandemic restrictions, is hardly better. New cases have increased 62 percent from late February to early March, marking the biggest increase of any state. Mississippi is also marred with some of the worst health disparities linked to COVID-19, putting at risk vulnerable and marginalized populations. Although Native Americans make up less than 1 percent of Mississippi’s population, they constitute an overwhelming percentage of both COVID-19 cases and deaths. According to the COVID Tracking Project and Boston University, Native Americans contract the coronavirus at a rate twice as high as Black people in the state, and they face a mortality rate that is nearly four times the rate of other groups in the state.

March 7 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations; Over 90 Million Doses Administered --NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project ends today (March 7th).  Starting tomorrow, I will post from different sources. From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 7th: "In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 90.4 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.16 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more.The US has averaged 1.4 million tests per day over the last week.  The percent positive over the last 7 days was 4.1%. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to below 1%, so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,156,241 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 41,265 positive tests.Almost 12,000 US deaths have been reported in March. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. The dashed line is the post-summer surge low for hospitalizations.

 Jackson Co. boy first Michigan case of COVID-19 variant from South Africa -- A child in Jackson County has the first known Michigan case of a COVID-19 variant first detected in South Africa. The B.1.351 variant of COVID-19 was identified Monday by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Bureau of Laboratories Tuesday, according to a release late Monday night from the State Emergency Operations Center. Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the chief state medical executive, in a statement in the release expressed concern at the discovery, but said it was “not unexpected.” The latest variant to arrive in Michigan was first detected in October 2020 in South Africa and it shares some mutations with the B.1.1.7 variant, MDHHS noted. More: Gov. Whitmer asks Michiganders to turn on porch lights in honor of COVID-19 victims More: 'I'm a survivor.' Livonia man with lung transplant was among Michigan's first COVID-19 cases B.1.1.7, the variant first identified in the United Kingdom, was identified in January in Michigan. As of Monday, 516 cases of the U.K. variant had been found in 23 Michigan jurisdictions, according to the release. Cases tied to the B.1.351 arrived in the U.S. in January. As of March 7, 20 states reported having the variant, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The latest variant in Michigan is believed to be more contagious than the coronavirus strand that afflicted the U.S. at the start of the pandemic. While there are no indications it results in more severe illness, officials warned that a higher rate of transmission could increase the number of people who are hospitalized or die. Scientists are still evaluating how well vaccines stand up against the variant, but Khaldun urged Michiganders to get the vaccine if possible, to help fight the spread.The Jackson County case is under investigation to determine any close contacts and any additional possible cases of the variant. It’s possible there are more cases of the variant that have not been identified, according to the release.

 Alaska Becomes First State To Give COVID Jab To Teenagers As More States Prepare To Reopen -Alaska has become the first US state to allow teenagers to receive the COVID-19 vaccine after removing eligibility requirements for receiving a jab. The state's Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy announced the move in a news release published late Tuesday, deeming the decision a "historic step", and "another nationwide first for Alaska."According to the Washington Post, the decision marks a "turning point in the nation’s immunization campaign, and also a reminder that access to the shots has been highly uneven throughout the country." In New York, by comparison, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has only just lowered the minimum age eligibility for the general public to 60. Most states are still reserving shots for patients 65 years old and older.About a quarter of Alaska’s residents have received at least one dose of vaccine, making the state a leader in quickly carrying out inoculations. It shares that distinction with several rural states including West Virginia - an early leader in the vaccine race - and the Dakotas, as the map below shows.

 Americans seek compensation for failed COVID-19 treatments from U.S. fund (Reuters) - In March of last year, Steve Cicala took his wife, Susan, to the emergency room at Clara Maass Medical Center in New Jersey to treat a worsening cough and fever, unaware she had COVID-19. As her breathing and blood pressure deteriorated, she was given azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine and put on a ventilator. Eleven days after being admitted to the same hospital where she had worked for years as a nurse, Susan went into cardiac arrest and died at age 60. Steve Cicala is now the first person known to be pursuing a COVID-19 claim with a decade-old U.S. government fund that has up to $30 billion that can be used to compensate for serious injuries or deaths caused by treatments or vaccines in the fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 presents the first serious test of the Countermeasure Injury Compensation Program (CICP) overseen by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The program so far has denied compensation in 90% of the cases filed prior to the pandemic, mostly for H1N1 flu vaccines. Cicala’s claim has not been previously reported. He could receive around $367,000 from the virtually untapped fund if he can show the treatment caused his wife’s death. He is not alleging negligence against the hospital, which is largely protected from liability by an emergency health law. “There’s nothing that’s going to bring her back,” said Cicala, “but obviously with our two children and now two grandchildren, if there’s something that we could do to help them out, that would be nice.”

 Florida Governor DeSantis prioritizes vaccine rollout for wealthier communities - According to press reports, Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has been implicated in a scheme aimed at setting up private, politically motivated COVID-19 vaccination drives in upscale, affluent communities while deprioritizing other poor and working class regions in the state. News of the pop-up sites emerged last month when email leaks from county officials showed that emphasis had been placed on providing wealthier, Republican-held communities such as Manatee and Charlotte counties before other communities in the state. The private vaccination drives have reportedly allowed more than 6,000 people to jump ahead of tens of thousands of older residents, seniors and other vulnerable populations in desperate need of a vaccine, as demand for vaccinations in the state has greatly exceeded supply since the state began administering them in late December. Governor DeSantis has been the subject of public scorn due to the state government’s gross negligence of the health of the population, with its nearly complete abandonment of even the most minimal mitigation efforts to stop the spread of the pandemic. This has included above all an absence of any restrictions on the reopening of nonessential businesses since the summer and the reckless push to reopen in-person classroom learning in schools throughout the state this spring.The accusations center around a coordinated, state-sponsored plan to administer vaccines to two pre-selected affluent neighborhoods with political ties to DeSantis. Knowledge of the program became known after emails from Vanessa Baugh, chair of the Manatee County Board of Commissioners, revealed Baugh asked county workers to pull a list of potential vaccine recipients who would participate in a vaccine drive from only two ZIP codes. The revelations serve as a further indictment of the homicidal policies pursued by the DeSantis administration, which has overseen a state with one of the largest concentrations of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the country. According to the COVID Monitor website, hosted by data scientist and COVID-19 whistleblower Rebekah Jones, the total number of infections for Florida is more than 2.1 million, while more than 32,000 lives have been lost to the virus.

UK strain of COVID-19 confirmed in Burlington’s wastewater (WCAX) - The UK variant of the coronavirus has been confirmed in Vermont, after a preliminary test a month ago found it present wastewater in Burlington’s wastewater. Health officials say the confirmation of the B.1.1.7 variant’s presence in Vermont is a concern, but not a surprise. It was first announced on Feb. 11 that a sample taken from Burlington’s main wastewater treatment plant which serves the downtown, the North End and South End, and parts of the Hill Section. “Not necessarily a cause for alarm, but it is a reminder as we hear all this positive news that gets better every week with respect to the vaccines we are still in a period where there is a danger, there is a threat,” said Mayor Miro Weinberger, D-Burlington. The prevalence of the mutation in the community is not known, but when it was first discovered, it was considered to be relatively low. The CDC expects the variant, which is now in nearly all states and territories, to become the dominant strain of the virus. They say it’s 30%-40% more infectious, but not necessarily more deadly. We asked people in the city if they’re worried about the discovery. “Now with the new variant here, it’s like we kind of have to take this a little more seriously than before. Take the extra precautions to make sure definitely washing your hands disinfecting yourself and layering up,” says Michael William Ng from New York. “Stay strong with what we’ve been doing, don’t get lax now,” .

Duke researchers finding few original COVID-19 strains in samples  (WNCN) – As students and staff returned to Duke University, they agreed to be part of a campus-wide COVID-19 testing program. Those samples are now being used to determine if any of the faster-spreading mutations of the virus are on campus. “There’s certainly an indication that some of these strains spread faster and if we see those strains come into the community, we want to be aware of those,” Duke biology professor Greg Wray. Sequencing genes of virus samples is important because it allows scientists to understand how the virus is spreading. It also helps with vaccines. There may be some variants that are not impacted by our current vaccines. “That’s the only way we’re going to learn whether vaccines are starting to not work anymore,” said Wray. The original Wuhan strain COVID-19 virus has mutated several times over the course of the last year. While it may have started out as the dominant version of the virus, it’s becoming rarer. Out of more than 200 samples, Duke’s sequencing lab only found the original strain in one sample. “It’s been out-competed,” said Wray.  Wray said the original was essentially wiped out last year with more contagious versions. Along with increased holiday travel, it may be why case counts started to rise over the winter. The California and New York strains have been among COVID-19 positive samples at Duke. “Another reason we need to keep track, we can’t assume the U.K. strain is going to stay in U.K. and the California strain is going to stay in California. We know that’s not going to be the case,” said Wray. The U.K. strain in particular is believed to keep people infectious longer. That means instead of isolating for 10 days, a person may need to really isolate for 16 to avoid infecting others. Wray said it’s important to know which you have so you don’t over or under quarantine.

Alaska announces four more cases of more-contagious coronavirus strain first seen in Brazil - Alaska Public Media - Health officials say they’ve discovered more Alaska cases of the P.1 variant of the coronavirus that’s devastated Brazil — suggesting that the mutant strain, which is likely more contagious and capable of reinfecting people previously sick with COVID-19, is getting a growing foothold in the state. State health officials announced the four new cases, two from Anchorage and two from Eagle River, during a public information session Wednesday. They’d previously detected just one case of the P.1 variant. But they said last month that more were likely given that the person found to have the strain had not recently traveled outside the state and did not have a clear source of infection, making it a case of community spread. Officials say they’re closely watching for P.1 cases because of its contagiousness and its apparent ability to escape antibodies acquired from previous COVID-19 infection. There’s also the possibility that it could evade vaccines, though the research into that risk is not conclusive. As of Tuesday, just 15 cases of the P.1 variant had been reported in the entire country, spread across nine states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But experts say that those numbers are likely far below the true number of cases, given the country’s limited capacity to do the complicated laboratory work, known as sequencing, that’s required to detect individual strains. In Alaska, at least, officials say that a newly-formed sequencing consortium of state and university scientists has given the state a good picture of which strains are circulating here, and make it unlikely that any variants are circulating widely while undetected.

US passes 100 million COVID-19 vaccinations -The United States has passed 100 million vaccine doses administered, a big milestone that shows the pace of the vaccination campaign is accelerating. The U.S. also set a new record for shots administered in a day on Friday, at 2.9 million, according to the White House, with the seven-day average up to 2.3 million per day. About 35 million people have been fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while about 65 million have received at least one dose. Almost 65 percent of people over age 65 have received at least one dose, up from 8 percent when President Biden took office, the White House said. Biden has set a goal of 100 million shots in his first 100 days in office, starting from Jan. 20 when he became president, rather than mid-December when the first shots were given, a mark he suggested he would reach by his 60th day in office. "Tonight, I can say we are not only going to meet that goal, we’re going to beat that goal," Biden said in a prime-time address Thursday night. "Because we’re actually on track to reach this goal of 100 million shots in arms on my 60th day in office. No other country in the world has done this. None." The United States compares favorably to the European Union, which has vaccinated less than half the number of people, according to data compiled by Our World in Data. The vaccines were developed in record time during the Trump administration, and the country was averaging about 900,000 shots per day when Trump left office. That number has climbed as supply increased and as Biden has expanded mass vaccination sites, and sent vaccines to more pharmacies and community health centers. Biden said Thursday every American adult will be eligible by May 1 at the latest.

All adults in Michigan will be eligible to get coronavirus vaccine by April 5  - All adults in Michigan will be eligible to get the coronavirus vaccine by April 5, the state announced on Friday.According to the announcement, released by the State Emergency Operations Center, residents aged 16 and older who have disabilities or a medical condition that puts them at high risk for a severe reaction to COVID-19 will be eligible for the vaccine by March 22. All residents aged 16 and older who were not previously eligible for the vaccine will be eligible by April 5.“The safe COVID-19 vaccine is the most effective way to protect you, your family and others from the virus,” said Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said in a statement. “It is essential to getting our country back to normal, so that we can all hug our families, get back to work, go to restaurants, send our kids to school, play sports and get together again.”The state's timeline makes all adult Michiganders eligible roughly one month ahead of President Biden’s timeline. The president on Thursday night called on states to make all adults eligible to receive the vaccine no later than May 1.The news comes amid a push by Whitmer to get 70 percent of the state’s residents aged 16 and older vaccinated by the end of the year.Earlier this month, the state announced that it would begin vaccinating all residents aged 50 and older by March 22.The state on Monday began vaccinating people aged 50 and older with medical conditions or disabilities and caregiver family members and guardians who care for children with special health care needs.According to data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, more than 2.8 million vaccine doses have been administered thus far.

3 vaccinated Hawaii residents tested positive for COVID-19.— The Hawaii Department of Health (DOH) has announced three cases in which a fully vaccinated person contracted COVID-19. The DOH said, fully vaccinated means the person received both doses of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine. A partially vaccinated resident also recently caught the U.K. variant, also referred to as B.1.1.7. “This number is not outside what we would expect with nearly 165,000 people in Hawaii who are fully vaccinated,” the DOH wrote in an email on Friday, March 12. “Remember, 95% of people get immunity from the vaccines and 5% don’t from the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine,” explained Lt. Gov. Dr. Josh Green. “So one out of 20 people could still not have immunity and therefore catch COVID.” Nexstar’s KHON asked a doctor at Queen’s Health Systems if there were studies to indicate who might be more likely to catch COVID if vaccinated. There is not, unfortunately. “The newest studies suggest that we have a higher protection for hospitalization so that even those that do get infected, it’s either a mild infection, as opposed to a severe or critical infection,” explained Dr. Julius Pham, Queen’s Health Systems COVID-19 committee chair. On Thursday, March 11, the DOH said a healthcare worker traveled one month after receiving both vaccine doses. The person and their travel partner had no symptoms and took the pre-travel test to come home. They did not get the test results until they landed, where they learned they were positive for COVID-19. Contact tracing revealed no one else was infected. 

Slow pace of vaccine delivery risks global COVID-19 recovery --Jumbo jets carrying pallets of coronavirus vaccines touched down last week in Rwanda, Sudan, Kenya, the Gambia, the Philippines and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where pilots posed for happy, masked photographs with health ministers and United Nations officials. But the occasions for celebration veil a deeper crisis, one that is leaving low- and middle-income countries even further behind than they were before the pandemic hit. As wealthy nations like the United States race toward herd immunity, the pace of vaccine rollout has been painfully slow in Africa and Southeast Asia at a time when both regions are experiencing worrying increases in case numbers. The inequality wrought by the coronavirus in the United States, where people of color are suffering both the health and economic impacts of the year-old pandemic at greater rates than their white counterparts, is a microcosm of a global phenomenon. As lower income countries struggle to secure vaccines, they will be left behind as other nations reopen their economies, exacerbating an economic gap that is already the widest it has ever been. “Eventually, everywhere else people will be able to travel and move about freely, and Africans won’t be able to,” said Gyude Moore, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Global Development and Liberia’s former minister of public works. “We’re going to see inequality play out again in terms of who has access to the world.” So far, World Health Organization officials and wealthy nations have pledged more than a billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to African nations. But only 1.5 percent of those doses have been delivered. The African Export-Import Bank has $2 billion to spend on vaccines, just a fraction of the estimated $10 billion to $12 billion it will cost to vaccinate a sufficient number of Africans to reach immunity on the continent. At the current pace, Africa would not reach herd immunity until the end of 2023 or even into 2024.

Yes, Export Bans on Vaccines Are a Problem, But Why Is the Supply of Vaccines so Limited in the First Place? -- News of the blockage of a shipment of 250,000 COVID-19 vaccines from Europe to Australia has caused concern and outrage.The immediate problem will probably be quickly solved through diplomatic channels. Even if it is not, onshore manufacturing of the AstraZeneca vaccine will soon make up for any shortfall in Australia’s vaccine supply.But to avoid these types of supply shortfalls in future, it’s important to address the underlying problems behind this example of vaccine nationalism. Australia is both a victim of these problems, as well as a contributor.Italy has blocked the shipment of AstraZeneca vaccines based on export authorisation rulesintroduced by the European Union in January. These rules require vaccine manufacturers in the EU to seek authorisation to export vaccines to some countries outside the bloc.This is the first time this process has resulted in a planned delivery of vaccines being blocked. The EU could have objected to Italy’s action, but did not.The EU introduced the authorisation requirement due to concerns it was not receiving the quantities of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines that the companies had agreed to provide within certain time frames.The immediate problem will probably be quickly solved through diplomatic negotiations. The EU is also likely to face intense criticism and pressure from other countries that fear the more widespread use of export restrictions.So, it’s unlikely the export ban on these 250,000 vaccines will remain in place for long, or that Australia will face further export restrictions.Even if the shipment never arrives in Australia, onshore manufacturing of the AstraZeneca vaccine by CSL will soon fill the gap, with the first locally produced doses expected to be available around the end of March. Any resulting delay in the rollout of Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination program is likely to be shortlived.But the blockage of a vaccine shipment points to bigger problems that threaten to undermine the global distribution of vaccines and the world’s recovery from the pandemic.The global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has so far been extremely inequitable. By November 2020, governments had negotiated pre-purchase agreements for almost 7.5 billion doses, 51% of which had been reserved by wealthy countries representing only 14% of the global population.In mid-January, the director-general of the World Health Organization warned of a “catastrophic moral failure”. He said that 39 million vaccine doses had been administered in high-income countries at that time, but just 25 doses had been provided in “one lowest-income country”. At this rate, it could be 2023 or 2024 before vaccination brings the pandemic under control globally.

Denmark, Iceland and Norway suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine as 'precautionary measure' after reports of blood clots.  Denmark, Iceland and Norway have suspended the use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine while the European Union's medicines regulator investigates whether the shot could be linked to a number of reports of blood clots.Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has insisted the vaccine is safe for use in Australia.Denmark announced a two-week suspension on following a number of reports of clotting in the country, including one fatal case. Iceland and Norway followed suit, but did not say how long their suspensions would last.Mr Dutton says Australia's rollout of the injections will continue unless new evidence suggests the drug is not safe."We have the best doctors in the world. They have gone through all the tests and trials. We've not rushed it. We will look at all the evidence," Mr Dutton told Today. "If there's a problem the government responds very quickly. At the moment the advice very clearly from the doctors is that this is a safe vaccine and we want the rollout to continue. Cool heads need to prevail."

Exclusive: EU told to expect no AstraZeneca vaccines from U.S. in near future – sources (Reuters) - Washington has told the European Union that it should not expect to receive AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines manufactured in the United States any time soon, two EU sources said on Thursday, in a new blow to the bloc’s supplies. The U.S. message could complicate vaccination plans in the 27-nation EU, which has been grappling since January with delays in deliveries from vaccine makers. “The U.S. told us there was no way it would ship AstraZeneca vaccines to the EU,” said a senior official directly involved in EU-U.S. talks. AstraZeneca told the EU earlier this year it would cut its supplies in the second quarter by at least half to less than 90 million doses, EU sources told Reuters, after a bigger reduction in the first three months of the year. Later, however, AstraZeneca offered to partly plug the gap with vaccines produced outside Europe, including in the United States. A senior EU diplomat said the European Commission told member states’ diplomats at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday that the bloc should not expect any exports from the United States “at this point in time”. “Basically the situation is such that any exports are tricky, but there is a willingness to talk,” the diplomat said. AstraZeneca declined to comment.

WHO says no link between AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots -The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday said there was no risk from taking AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine as some countries have paused distribution over blood clot concerns. Despite no clear evidence of a link, countries including Iceland, Denmark and Norway have halted their use of AstraZeneca's vaccine following reports that it could be connected to blood clots. Denmark announced a 14-day pause on Thursday to investigate after reports of dozens of people forming blood clots after receiving the shots, with at least one person dying. During a briefing Friday, WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus reiterated that the European Medicines Agency has said there is no indication of a link between the vaccine and blood clots and that the AstraZeneca vaccine can continue to be used. The WHO’s global advisory committee on vaccine safety is reviewing the reports and will make its findings public, Tedros said, like it does with any safety issues. Mariângela Simão, a WHO assistant director-general, said she thinks people have confused causation with correlation. "People die every day," she said, adding that more than 335 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally so far and no deaths have been found to have been caused by the vaccines. "There will be people who have been immunized who will die of other causes. So far the preliminary data we have seen does not lead to a causal relationship," Simão said. She added the WHO is "very much aligned with the position" that vaccinations with the AstraZeneca shot should continue until the agency has clarified a causal relationship. The AstraZeneca vaccine is the main shot being distributed globally as part of the WHO-led Covax effort to share vaccines in developing nations. Covax aims to distribute 2 billion doses this year, providing access for poorer countries. Also on Friday, the WHO listed Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine as safe for emergency use in all countries and in its Covax program, clearing the way for the single-shot vaccine to be used more broadly.

WHO grants emergency use authorization to Johnson & Johnson vaccine -The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday issued emergency use authorization for Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine, paving the way for the one-shot dose to be used as part of the United Nation’s international vaccine distribution effort. The greenlight from WHO, which comes a day after the European Union approved the shot, means countries that receive shots through the UN’s COVAX effort, which promotes equitable distribution of vaccines, could cite the new endorsement in distribution of the shot. The vaccine provides fewer logistical hurdles than other shots given that it requires just one dose instead of two and does not need to be stored in ultra-cold temperatures. “Every new, safe and effective tool against COVID-19 is another step closer to controlling the pandemic,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement. “But the hope offered by these tools will not materialize unless they are made available to all people in all countries. “I urge governments and companies to live up to their commitments and to use all solutions at their disposal to ramp up production so that these tools become truly global public goods, available and affordable to all, and a shared solution to the global crisis," he added. WHO, in its statement announcing the approval, cited “ample data from large clinical trials” showing that the Johnson & Johnson shot was effective among adults. Studies have shown that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is 66 percent effective in protecting any cases of moderate to severe illness and 85 percent effective against severe cases of COVID-19. It completely prevented hospitalizations and death four weeks after inoculation. COVAX has already announced an initial deal with the pharmaceutical firm to obtain and distribute 500 million vaccine doses, though the arrangement is not legally binding. WHO has also granted emergency use authorizations for vaccines from Oxford/AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech. COVAX is in the process of distributing doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and preparing to roll out doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech shot.

 Covid variant found in U.K. 64% more deadly than earlier strains: Study - The highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in the U.K. is associated with a 64% higher risk of dying from Covid-19 than earlier strains, according to a new study published in the British Medical Journal. Researchers at the University of Exeter and the University of Bristol analyzed data from more than 100,000 patients in the U.K. between Oct. 1 and Jan. 28. They compared death rates among people infected with B.1.1.7, the variant first found in the U.K., and those infected with other previously circulating strains. The researchers, who published their findings Wednesday, said people infected with B.1.1.7 were between 32% and 104% more likely to die. That translates to a central estimate of 64%, they said, adding the "absolute risk of death in this largely unvaccinated population remains low." "In the community, death from COVID-19 is still a rare event, but the B.1.1.7 variant raises the risk. Coupled with its ability to spread rapidly this makes B.1.1.7 a threat that should be taken seriously," Robert Challen, the study's lead author at Exeter, said in a press release. The researchers said B.1.1.7 led to 227 deaths in a sample of 54,906 patients. That compares with 141 deaths in roughly the same number of patients who were infected with other strains. They said with the variant already detected in more than 50 countries worldwide, "the analysis provides crucial information to governments and health officials to help prevent its spread." The U.K. identified B.1.1.7, which appears to spread more easily and quickly than other strains, in fall 2020. It has since spread to other parts of the globe, including the U.S., which has identified 3,283 cases as of Tuesday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. U.S. health officials say they are working to identify more cases. The new study comes about two months after a CDC study warned that B.1.1.7 could become the dominant strain in the United States. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told JAMA on Feb. 17 that the B.1.1.7 variant is thought to be roughly 50% more transmissible and early data indicates it could be up to 50% more virulent, or deadly. New variants are especially a concern for public health officials as they could become more resistant to antibody treatments and vaccines. Top health officials including White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci are urging Americans to get vaccinated as quickly as possible, saying the virus can't mutate if it can't infect hosts and replicate.

Brazil Surpasses US In Daily COVID Cases & Deaths --In what is without a doubt one of the biggest pandemic milestones since the start of the year, the US has finally ceded its spot as the world's worst-hit nation to Brazil, which reported more daily cases and deaths than the US for the first time ever on Tuesday. Brazil's worsening outbreak is stoking fears that mutant COVID strains could precipitate a "4th wave" of the virus as a mutant strain first isolated in the Brazilian Amazon has now spread across the country. We first reported on this new strain, which caught the attention of researchers when it started killing more young people in Manaus back in January.Brazil’s daily Covid-19 death toll surged to 1,972 on Tuesday, its highest daily tally yet since the start of the pandemic. By comparison, the US death toll on Tuesday was 1,947. It marked the first time deaths in Brazil topped deaths in the US, which has a population more than 1/3rd larger than Brazil's.Meanwhile, new cumulative cases in Brazil topped new cases in the US for the first time earlier this week, but the trend has persisted and now the 7-day average is also solidly higher in the Brazil than in the US. Over the past week, Brazil has been recording 1K new cases roughly every 30 minutes. As many countries see COVID cases taper off, Brazil is one of the few large nations where the outbreak is actually getting worse. Per WSJ, public health specialists are blaming the rapid spread on the mutant P.1 strain of the virus mentioned above. The mutation was first isolated in the Amazonian city of Manaus. Studies have shown it to be more contagious and better able to reinfect people than previous versions of the disease. Deaths have also surged as Brazil's health system has struggled to cope. There have been more reports of patients who could have been saved being left to die in chaotic hospital corridors.

Brazil hospitals pushed to limit as COVID-19 death toll soars (Reuters) - Hospitals in Brazil’s main cities are reaching capacity, health officials have warned, as the country recorded the world’s highest COVID-19 death toll over the past week, triggering tighter restrictions on Thursday in its most populous state. Intensive care wards for treating COVID-19 patients have reached critical occupancy levels over 90% in 15 of 27 state capitals, according to biomedical center Fiocruz. In Porto Alegre, the largest city in southern Brazil, there are no free intensive care units (ICUs), and occupancy has also hit 100% in two other state capitals, Fiocruz reported. The Health Ministry on Wednesday reported a record 2,286 deaths from COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, as new infections rose by 79,876. With more than 270,000 deaths, Brazil’s pandemic death toll over the past year trails only the United States. But over the past week, Brazil has averaged more than 1,600 deaths per day, ahead of some 1,400 in the United States, where the outbreak has ebbed. As President Jair Bolsonaro rails against lockdowns and urges Brazilians out of their homes, governors and mayors have struggled to enforce restrictions, often pleading in vain with a population inured to the rising tide of the epidemic. Brazil’s two most populous cities, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, on Thursday moved to tighten measures as their hospitals struggled with a second wave of the virus, spurred by a more contagious variant that emerged in the Amazon region. While Europe and the United States ramp up vaccinations and bring down their caseloads, Brazil’s federal government is off to a slow start, with only 2% of the 210 million Brazilians fully inoculated so far. In the nation’s capital Brasilia, which is under a nighttime curfew, public hospital ICU wards are 97% full and private ones are at 99%, forcing the city to again set up field hospitals as it had during a peak in cases last year.

 Provincial Italian hospital overrun by virus variant— The 160-bed hospital in the Po River Valley town of Chiari has no more room for patients stricken with the highly contagious variant of COVID-19 first identified in Britain that has put hospitals in Italy’s northern Brescia province on high alert. That history was repeating itself one year after Lombardy became the epicenter of Italy’s pandemic was a sickening realization for Dr. Gabriele Zanolini, who runs the COVID-19 ward in the M. Mellini Hospital in the once-walled city that maintains its medieval circular street pattern. “You know that there are patients in the emergency room and you don’t know where to put them,” Zanolini told The Associated Press. “This for me is anguish, not to be able to respond to people who need to be treated. The most difficult moment is to find ourselves again in a state of emergency, after so much time.” The UK variant surge has filled 90 percent of hospital beds in Brescia province, bordering both Veneto and Emilia-Romagna regions, as Italy crossed the grim threshold of 100,000 pandemic dead on Monday and marks the one-year anniversary Wednesday of Italy’s draconian lockdown, the first in the West. In this surge, patients in the Chiari hospital COVID-19 ward are increasingly family members. And unlike previous spikes, the average age has dropped, with many of the virus patients needing breathing aid between 45 and 55 years of age. While Zanolini was able to offer a safety valve to hard-hit Bergamo during last spring’s deadly surge and to Milan and Varese in the fall, now he must ask hospitals elsewhere in the region to take virus patients he himself cannot admit. New measures are again being considered in Rome to tamp down the increase in new cases attributed to virus variants, including also those identified in South Africa and Brazil. With the UK variant prevalent in Italy and racing from school-age children and adolescents through families, Lombardy has again put all schools on distance learning, as have several regions in the south where the health care system is more fragile.

 New Book Confirms Fauci's NIH Funded Wuhan Bat-COVID Experiments At Understaffed Chinese Lab -Last April, the Washington Post's Josh Rogin revealed that in January 2018, the US Embassy in Beijing "took the unusual step of repeatedly sending US science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)," and subsequently sent two official warnings back to Washington about "inadequate safety at the lab."Now, Rogin is out with a new book; "Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century," where he offers a 10,000-foot view of the evidence implicating the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, while also confirming that the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) - headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, "had funded a number of projects that involved WIV scientists, including much of the Wuhan lab's work with bat coronaviruses."The punchline hasn't changed; if one simply connects the dots and applies a modicum of logic, the fact that COVID-19 emerged "on the doorstep of the lab that possessed one of the world's largest collections of bat coronaviruses and that possessed the closest known relative of SARS-CoV-2," after years of performing so-called "gain-of-function" research modifying animal viruses to better infect humans (and which the Obama administration banned in October 2014 in the United States), and you have American diplomats reporting that they were "shocked" that Chinese researchers "didn't have enough properly trained technicians to safely operate their BSL-4 lab," and the likelihood of COVID-19 having escaped from WIV seems like a foregone conclusion.

Is Climate Change Making Allergy Season Worse? These Scientists Think So - In the US alone, more than 50 million people are allergy sufferers.Now scientists say climate change could be causing allergy season to start earlier and last longer.​A team of researchers from institutions across the US has reviewed data relating to pollen trends from 1990 to 2018. The conclusions they came to were that pollen is present in the air 20 days sooner than it used to be and at significantly higher concentrations – as much as 21% up.Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences (PNAS), the report's authors write: "Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons." Furthermore, their results strongly suggest that "human-caused climate change has already worsened North American pollen seasons." The situation is only likely to get worse, they believe, which could have serious consequences for some people's respiratory health.Researchers are also studying how air quality, more broadly, can affect and be impacted by climate change. Changes in the climate can affect local air quality, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency. These impacts include atmospheric warming's potential to increase ground-level ozone, which can be harmful to health. Experts are also investigating the influence of climate change on fine particulate matter and other air pollutants.

California Wildfire Smoke Harms Respiratory Health More than Fine Particulates from Any Other Source, Including Vehicle Emissions --Jerri-Lynn Scofield --A new study has found that the smoke that now blankets large parts of California during wildfire season is more toxic to human respiratory systems than any other source of fine particles, including vehicle emissions.The study, published last week in Nature Communications, covered the period from 1999 through 2012 and examined data for southern California. It concluded that toxic particles arising from wildfires were ten times more likely to lead to hospitalizations than those from any other source.The study concluded that given the different toxicity of particulate matter – depending on its source – policymakers needed to consider the source of emissions when formulating air quality standards: Recent toxicological studies suggest that fine particulate matter, PM2.5, in wildfire smoke may be more toxic than equal doses of ambient PM2.5. Air quality regulations however assume that the toxicity of PM2.5 does not vary across different sources of emission.Here, we isolate the wildfire-specific PM2.5 using a series of statistical approaches and exposure definitions. We found increases in respiratory hospitalizations ranging from 1.3 to up to 10% with a 10 μg m−3 increase in wildfire-specific PM2.5, compared to 0.67 to 1.3% associated with non-wildfire PM2.5. Our conclusions point to the need for air quality policies to consider the variability in PM2.5 impacts on human health according to the sources of emission. This conclusion is particularly important as California has always led the way among U.S. states in formulating air quality standards. The study carries worrying implications  for a post-COVID world, for three reasons. Worsening wildfires will be an increasingly familiar occurrence as climate change accelerates. Even with drastic policy changes, even best case scenarios don’t predict any reversal of climate changes already set in motion.First worry: many Californians who have survived COVID-19 now suffer impaired lung function, whether they experienced acute symptoms or not. A reminder: these impacts are not confined exclusively to the elderly or otherwise infirm. During an appointment with my opthalmologist in January, I got to taking to the technician who administered some of my eye tests. He was in his early twenties and looked quite fit. He confided that he’d had COVID late in 2020 – what he called a bad case, although I don’t think he was hospitalized – and was just beginning to feel better, after months of recovery. He said he was worried as scans of his lungs showed lingering damage. Second worry: the study looked at California only, from 1999 through 2012, stopping nearly a decade ago. Since then, West Coast wildfires have only dramatically worsened. And in future, out- of- control wildfires won’t be confined to the U.S. alone. Other places will – and some already have – experienced them.

Teenage Activists Post Signs to Warn of Toxic Air in London Neighborhoods -A group of teenagers, living in some of London's most polluted communities, are posting roadsigns highlighting the disproportionate impact air pollution has on people of color. The campaign, organized by Choked Up, a group made up of self-described "Black & brown teens," has posted signs throughout the city which warn "breathing kills" and "pollution zone," The Guardian reported. Motivated to put an end to early deaths and the negative health impacts toxic air inflicts, Choked Up's co-founder Anjali Raman-Middleton, 17, said: "I'm terrified that my daily commute to school along the South Circular has already had a negative impact on my lungs," according to The Guardian. "I urge London mayoral candidates to commit to transform these roads to give me and my generation a greener future." Raman-Middleton was also inspired by the recent ruling regarding the nine-year-old Londoner, Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, which made her the first person in the UK to have air pollution exposure listed as the cause of fatality on her death certificate, adding it "proved that the road I live less than five minutes from can kill,"according to the BBC. The call to action is backed by a group of about 100 health professionals with the NHS, the Environmental Defense Fund reported, who contributed a letter highlighting the daily health impacts Londoners face from toxic air. But this "health burden of dirty air is not equal," the health professionals wrote in the letter, coordinated by Medact, a coalition of health professionals working to mitigate health inequalities in the environment. The call to action follows recent research by the Environmental Defense Fund Europe, which shows that nitrogen dioxide levels are on average "24-31% higher" in communities where people from Black, Asian or ethnic minority backgrounds are more likely to live, the BBC reported.  "Air pollution affects every single one of us from birth to old age, but we know the least well off and marginalised communities, including those from black and Asian backgrounds, are being hardest hit," said Dr. Laura Jane Smith, a respiratory consultant at King's College Hospital and signee of the letter, according to The Guardian.  Research also found in some areas of London, one in five primary schools are near major roads, where children are exposed to high levels of pollution, and schools with the highest percentage of non-white students are exposed to on average 28 percent higher NOx levels than schools with the lowest proportion of students from Black and other ethnic minority backgrounds, according to the EDF.  Exposure to toxic air has a direct impact on health, specifically targeting young people whose bodies are still developing, leading to asthma and heart conditions. Growing research also suggests pollution can increase the risk of depression and dementia, The Guardian reported.

Fossil fuel pollution is killing people in the US and abroad -That’s the chilling conclusion reached by a new peer-reviewed study from Harvard University and University College London. Researchers found that more than 8.7 million people around the world died from exposure to particulate matter from fossil fuel emissions in 2018. The findings bring new understanding and urgency to the immediate global health threat caused by climate change and our world’s continued reliance on high-polluting fossil fuels.For the Biden administration and policymakers worldwide, it must be a wakeup call. Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels isn’t just about protecting future generations from looming threats and projections — it’s about saving lives right now. Our actions — both domestic and internationally — must reflect that urgency.The death toll from fossil fuels is more than twice what previous research indicated. The study’s authors say the startlingly higher measurements stemmed from more advanced ways of calculating particulate matter using 3D models. It offers a more accurate and tragic look into the devastating impact fossil fuels have on our populations and our planet.The study reveals a crisis that is truly global in scope. Eastern North America, Europe and Southeast Asia had the highest concentrations of fossil fuel-related air pollution. The idea that climate change is only a problem in the developing world or recently industrialized nations is false. Yet the citizens of these countries suffer the effects of this pollution at a greater rate. Nearly two-thirds of the deaths occurred in China and India. In the U.S., more than 13 percent of deaths in people older than 14 are attributable to pollution from fossil fuels. Domestically and abroad, we know that these deaths and poorer health outcomes disproportionately affect low-income populations and communities of color. President Biden’s commitment to addressing climate change through the lens of environmental justice will be critical. His proposed Environmental and Climate Justice Division within the Department of Justice (DOJ) is a good first step, but it must come with a renewed effort to hold polluters accountable and reverse the impact they’ve had in our most vulnerable communities. Biden’s proposed Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool is another meaningful step in giving these communities the resources they need to make informed choices about the health and safety of their families.

Diphtheria risks becoming major global threat again as it evolves antimicrobial resistance --  Diphtheria - a relatively easily-preventable infection - is evolving to become resistant to a number of classes of antibiotics and in future could lead to vaccine escape, warn an international team of researchers from the UK and India. The researchers, led by scientists at the University of Cambridge, say that the impact of COVID-19 on diphtheria vaccination schedules, coupled with a rise in the number of infections, risk the disease once more becoming a major global threat. Diphtheria is a highly contagious infection that can affect the nose and throat, and sometimes the skin. If left untreated it can prove fatal. In the UK and other high-income countries, babies are vaccinated against infection. However, in low- and middle-income countries, the disease can still cause sporadic infections or outbreaks in unvaccinated and partially-vaccinated communities. The number of diphtheria cases reported globally has being increasing gradually. In 2018, there were 16,651 reported cases, more than double the yearly average for 1996-2017 (8,105 cases). Diphtheria is primarily caused by the bacterium Corynebacterium diphtheriae and is mainly spread by coughs and sneezes, or through close contact with someone who is infected. In most cases, the bacteria cause acute infections, driven by the diphtheria toxin - the key target of the vaccine. However, non-toxigenic C. diphtheria can also cause disease, often in the form of systemic infections.

African swine fever resurfaces in Asian countries - African swine fever, a disease that has killed tens of millions of pigs, has resurfaced in several Asian countries this year, with governments scrambling to get ahead of the spread.China, Vietnam and Malaysia have documented cases of the disease that has previously ravaged herd populations in the region, Bloomberg News reported on Monday. So far, the new cases are isolated, but the reemergence of the virus, which is not known to harm humans, is sparking concerns about another potential meat shortage. China, where half of the world’s hogs live, has found cases in Hebei, Henan, Sichuan, Yunnan and Xinjiang, according to Bloomberg. Beijing has vowed to stop illegal vaccines for the virus, which have been connected to the recent outbreaks.The reemergence threatens the goals of the country, which has been the hardest hit by the swine fever since its first outbreak in 2018, to achieve full hog herd recovery by the middle of this year. Economic experts are monitoring China’s number of hogs to determine the nation’s need for imported grains and meat.In Vietnam, about 2,000 pigs have been culled through late February as more than 20 regions have documented new cases, Bloomberg reported, citing the agriculture ministry. The country had lost almost 6 million pigs in 2019 when the disease struck herds. Vietnam expects to have its official vaccine against the virus ready this summer. Malaysia confirmed its first ever case of the African swine fever last month, leading the government to announce that 3,000 pigs will be culled in the state of Sabah. The state government reportedly said on Sunday that while the virus had been found in other districts, the commercial pig farms have not experienced outbreaks.

Paraquat Parkinson's Disease Lawsuits - Exposure to the toxic herbicide Paraquat has been linked to a risk of Parkinson’s disease. Lawsuits are being reviewed for farm workers, transporters, mixers, herbicide applicators and others who have experienced problems.  Free consultations and case evaluations are provided by Paraquat lawyers to determine if financial compensation may be available for Parkinson’s disease diagnosed following exposure to the herbicide. Chevron Chemical Company, Syngenta and other companies have sold a variety of paraquat-based herbicides, including Gramoxone, Paraquat Concentrate, Blanco, Cyclone SL 2.0, and other Paraquat-based Herbicides. Paraquat (Methyl Viologen) is a herbicide used for weed and grass control first created in the early 1960s. It is known to be very toxic, with a high risk of paraquat poisoning if not handled appropriately. As a result, Paraquat is a “Restricted Use Pesticide” (RUP) in the United States, and can only be purchased, mixed or applied by licensed paraquat applicators. It also has a color dye applied to make sure it is not confused with coffee, with a sharp odor added and a chemical agent that causes someone who ingests it to vomit. However, those precautions may not be enough to protect users from the health risks linked to Paraquat exposure. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warns that Paraquat can enter the human body through absorption or penetration of the skin, as well as through mucous membranes, airways, cuts and abrasions, and via breathing it into the body or digestion through droplets introduced via the mouth, nose or airways.  Paraquat exposure can result in devastating health consequences for those who are exposed to the toxic pesticide, particularly licensed applicators who work with it on a regular basis. It has been linked to several serious health effects, including:

• Parkinson’s Disease
• Heart Failure
• Kidney Failure
• Liver Failure
• Lung Scarring

Parkinson’s disease is one of the most concerning risks associated with Paraquat, as the manufacturer has not adequately warned about this problem. It is believed that Paraquat creates oxidative stress in cells, which kills certain brain cells associated with the production of dopamine, which can lead to Parkinson’s disease. Parkinson’s disease affects about 1 million Americans, and at least 6 million other people worldwide. The association between Paraquat exposure and Parkinson’s disease is so strong that scientists use Paraquat to induce Parkinson’s disease in animals for testing purposes.

New Pesticides Will Modify Insect Genes: What Could Go Wrong? - Biden's election has boosted hopes that scientific integrity will be restored in the federal government. To make good on that promise, the administration will need to take action to safeguard against the risks of an entirely new type of pesticide, one developed by genetic engineers rather than chemists.These pesticides will broadcast "gene silencing" agents across our farm fields — resulting in an open-air genetic engineering experiment. Among the concerns that scientists have raised are threats to bees and other beneficial insects essential to food production. Others have called out potential impacts on human health, including for some of our most essential frontline workers — farmworkers — and rural communities. Farmers across the U.S. could soon fill their pesticide spray tanks with a substance known as interfering RNA (RNAi). (RNA is a molecule similar to DNA.) Insects that are exposed to it — either by eating crops sprayed with the substance or by landing on a crop and absorbing it through their bodies — would be genetically modified right there in the field. The pesticide would trigger a process inside the insects' cells to switch off or "silence" genes that are essential for survival — like those needed to make new, healthy cells — thus killing them. At least one product has already been submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency for approval. But unless Biden's administration takes action, companies will be able to commercialize these new RNAi pesticides without submitting meaningful health or environmental risk assessments.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's pesticide rules were written fifty years ago, long before regulators could imagine a class of pesticides that could genetically modify living organisms. Perhaps most concerning is that once gene-silencing agents are released into the environment, there's no clean-up process when things go awry. Evidence shows that RNAi-related genetic modifications could be passed on for up to 80 generations in some cases.What could go wrong? Quite a bit, according to scientific research summarized in a report from Friends of the Earth.There is little reason to believe that this novel technology would be able to target only the "bad" insects and not the plethora of insects that are vital to farming, like pollinators.  A 2017 study indicating that honeybees could be harmed by RNAi pesticides raises a red flag since we rely on pollinators for one in three bites of food we eat. Insects form the basis of the food webs that sustain all life on the planet. We are already in the midst of what scientists call an "insect apocalypse" — forty percent of insect species face extinction in coming decades. This is a loss so severe that it could cause a "catastrophic collapse of nature's ecosystems" according to leading researchers.

Billions of Cicadas May Soon Be Coming to Trees Near YouA big event in the insect world is approaching. Starting sometime in April or May, depending on latitude, one of the largest broods of 17-year cicadas will emerge from underground in a dozen states, from New York west to Illinois and south into northern Georgia. This group is known as Brood X, as in the Roman numeral for 10. For about four weeks, wooded and suburban areas will ring with cicadas' whistling and buzzing mating calls. After mating, each female will lay hundreds of eggs in pencil-sized tree branches. Then the adult cicadas will die. Once the eggs hatch, new cicada nymphs fall from the trees and burrow back underground, starting the cycle again. There are perhaps 3,000 to 4,000 species of cicadas around the world, but the 13- and 17-year periodical cicadas of the eastern U.S. appear to be unique in combining long juvenile development times with synchronized, mass adult emergences. These events raise many questions for entomologists and the public alike. What do cicadas do underground for 13 or 17 years? What do they eat? Why are their life cycles so long? Why are they synchronized?  We've learned many surprising things about these insects: For example, they can travel through time by changing their life cycles in four-year increments. It's no accident that the scientific name for periodical 13- and 17-year cicadas is Magicicada, shortened from "magic cicada."   As species, periodical cicadas are older than the forests that they inhabit. Molecular analysis has shown that about 4 million years ago, the ancestor of the current Magicicada species split into two lineages. Some 1.5 million years later, one of those lineages split again. The resulting three lineages are the basis of the modern periodical cicada species groups, Decim, Cassini and Decula.The key feature of Magicicada biology is that these insects emerge in huge numbers. This increases their chances of accomplishing their key mission aboveground: finding mates.Dense emergences also provide what scientists call a predator-satiation defense. Any predator that feeds on cicadas, whether it's a fox, squirrel, bat or bird, will eat its fill long before it consumes all of the insects in the area, leaving many survivors behind.

'Frightening' New Data Reveals Humanity Has Destroyed Two-Thirds of World's Rainforest -New data from a Norwegian nonprofit is generating fresh concerns about humanity's destruction of the natural world, revealing Monday that people have ravaged about two-thirds of original tropical rainforest cover globally.The Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN) analysis found that human activities including logging and land-use changes—often for farming—have destroyed 34% of old-growth tropical rainforests and degraded 30% worldwide.RFN defined degraded forests as those that are partly destroyed or fully wiped out but replaced by more recent growth. The group's definition for intact forest, considered too strict by some experts, includes only areas that are at least 500 square kilometers or 193 square miles; trees and biodiversity are at greater risk in smaller zones.The RFN findings, reported by Reuters, show that over half of the destruction since 2002 has been in the Amazon and neighboring rainforests. Deforestation in South America—particularly within Brazil, home to the majority of the Amazon—has caused recent alarm given the role of rainforests in trapping carbon."Forests act as a two-lane highway in the climate system," explained Nancy Harris, Forests Program research director at the World Resources Institute (WRI), earlier this year. "Standing forests absorb carbon, but clearing forests releases it into the atmosphere."A forest carbon flux map released in January by organizations including WRI found that between 2001 and 2019, forests emitted an average of 8.1 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide annually due to deforestation and other disturbances but also absorbed 16 billion metric tonnes per year over the same period.Reuters reported Monday on RFN's analysis: As more rainforest is destroyed, there is more potential for climate change, which in turn makes it more difficult for remaining forests to survive, said the report's author Anders Krogh, a tropical forest researcher."It's a terrifying cycle," Krogh said. The total lost between just 2002 and 2019 was larger than the area of France, he found.Deforestation has surged in Brazil since far-right President Jair Bolsonaro—a foe of both environmental regulations and Indigenous people in his country—took office in early 2019. Brazilian forest loss hit a 12-year high in 2020, according to satellite imagery from the country's space research agency."Instead of acting to prevent the increase in deforestation, the Bolsonaro government has been denying the reality of the situation, dismantling environmental agencies, and attacking NGOs who work on the ground in the Amazon,"

 Scientists Highlight Need to Restore Logged Rainforests in a Hotter and Drier Climate --Over the past 40 years, about 50 percent of lowland rainforests in Southeast Asia have been converted for palm oil and other plantations, and remaining forests in the region are heavily logged, according to new research. Yet while the impacts of fragmentation on old-growth forests are well understood, how fragmentation impacts regenerating logged forests isn't.Research published Tuesday in Nature Communications highlights the critical need to protect some of the world's most biologically diverse, yet damaged, forests.The regrowth of natural forests could offset 25 percent of current annual fossil fuel emissions, the scientists wrote. Yet as the climate grows hotter and drier, little is known about the ability of damaged forests to both recover and sequester carbon. In response, the team looked at how these "human-modified" tropical forests of Borneo recovered, following the 2015-2016 El Niño event of extremely hot and dry environmental conditions, the University of Helsinki wrote in a statement.Using laser scanners, called airborne LiDAR surveys, scientists scanned 3,300 hectares of small, fragmented parts of regenerating, logged forests in Malaysian Borneo. How these forests were recovering was highly variable.While the dry climate of 2015-2016 did result in "increased leaf shedding and branch fall," the scientists wrote, they also found that regenerating forests continued to grow, despite "high temperatures and water demand in these logged forests," the University of Helsinki wrote.However, regenerating forests in close proximity to palm oil plantations faced issues associated with fragmentation, like tree mortality and lower productivity. The closer a forest was to a plantation, the more these impacts "increased exponentially," the University of Helsinki wrote.Based on their findings, the scientists suggest that buffers for regenerating forests nearby streams and rivers and palm oil plantations must be twice the width of what is currently required by law in Sabah, Malaysia,

Unprecedented Texas deep freeze results in 600 million dollar crop loss - Texas farmers and ranchers have lost at least 600 million dollars to the unprecedented winter storm that lashed the state last month, according to the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. The deep freeze left more than 4.3 million homes without power, paralyzed transportation, and seriously impacted agricultural production in the state. A large number of Texas farmers, ranchers, and others involved in commercial agriculture and agricultural production were seriously affected by the storm, said Jeff Hyde, AgriLife Extension director."Freezing temperatures and ice killed or harmed many of their crops and livestock and caused financial hardships and operational setbacks. The residual costs from the disaster could plague many producers for years to come."Citrus, livestock, and horticultural crops were among the sectors hit hardest by the deep freeze, according to the preliminary data from the organization.At least 230 million dollars of citrus crops were damaged, 228 million dollars' worth of loss on the livestock sector, and at least 150 million dollars on vegetable crops.  "The data we used to determine these agricultural losses came from farmers, ranchers, and other commercial producers throughout the state as well as others involved in or supporting production agriculture in Texas," said Mark Waller, Ph.D., associate head of Texas A&M University’s Department of Agricultural Economics.  "Our people collaborated with agricultural industry groups and other stakeholders to get the most accurate and up-to-date information available at this time," added Monty Dozier, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension program director for disaster assessment and recovery.

 Scientists describe 'hidden biodiversity crisis' as variation within species is lost --The rapid loss of variation within species is a hidden biodiversity crisis, according to the authors of a new study looking at how this variation supports essential ecological functions and the benefits nature provides for people.Published March 1 inNature Ecology and Evolution, the study highlights the need to better understand and conserve variation within species in order to safeguard nature's contributions to people."Biodiversity means more than the number of species, and when we focus on species-level extinctions we are missing part of the story," said corresponding author Eric Palkovacs, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UC Santa Cruz. "Intraspecific variation is a neglected aspect of biodiversity, but it has value for people, and we need to start recognizing that and protecting this form of biodiversity."An earlier study led by first author Simone Des Roches, a postdoctoral researcher at UC Santa Cruz now at the University of Washington, showed that the loss of variation within species can have serious ecological consequences. This got Des Roches and Palkovacs thinking about the broader implications of their findings for the values and services nature provides to people, from forest materials and clean water to commercial fisheries and medicines derived from natural products.For the new study, they surveyed the scientific literature for studies showing how intraspecific variation supports ecosystem services and other aspects of nature's contributions to people. They found well documented connections across a wide variety of species, including fish and commercial fisheries, insects and crop pollination, woody plants and forestry products, many different crops and their wild ancestors, and more."There is a whole suite of documented cases, including several examples of what happens when we lose intraspecific variation," Palkovacs said. "One of the best examples is commercial fisheries, where diverse fish stocks help to stabilize the overall population."

Indigenous People Not Invited to UN Biodiversity Talks --Aiming to preserve 30 percent of the world's land and water by 2030, dozens of countries will take part in a UN biodiversity conference later this year – but Indigenous people won't have a seat at the table.Indigenous communities have repeatedly mobilized to block logging, mining and overfishing, with great success. More than a quarter of the world's lands are managed by Indigenous communities, and studies show that these areas often boast more biodiversity than lands marked out for conservation by national governments. And yet, while Indigenous communities will be able to attend the UN conference as observers, they are not recognized as parties to the biodiversity talks and cannot vote on the outcome, a dynamic that is likely to limit the ambition of the final agreement. Indigenous groups have said the goal of saving 30 percent of land and water is insufficient, a claim backed by science, and have called for saving 50 percent.

Mysterious dolphin and whale strandings reach record high in Ireland -  Ireland is facing a mysterious spate of dolphin and whale strandings as the numbers reach record high again. The number of strandings during the winter period in the country has increased significantly since 2011.In 2019, the Irish Whale and Dolphin Group (IWDG) received 70 reports of animals washing up on the Irish coast during the winter months, which was unprecedented.However, in January and February 2021, there have already been 93 records of stranded cetaceans, comprising 8 different species. This represents the highest number ever recorded in that time period. Four of the animals were refloated after efforts from volunteers, but 89 died.The strandings are isolated mainly among the west and southwest coasts.The eight species recorded to date include common, bottlenose, striped and Risso’s dolphin, harbor porpoise, long-finned pilot whale, minke whale and one rare record of a humpback whale.Common dolphins are the most usual species found, making up more than two-thirds of the carcasses this year alone. In some cases, people who discover dolphin carcasses believe that those were the remains of Fungie, a bottlenose dolphin that lived in very close contact with humans in Dingle, on the southwest coast of Ireland. One in 10 had obvious signs of being caught in nets, three had their tails cut off, three suffered broken jaws, and one was caught in a net.

  Spike in Florida Manatee Deaths Linked to Human Activity, Loss of Food Sources -The first few months of 2021 have been extremely deadly for manatees as food sources in Florida have become increasingly limited, scientists say. In the first six weeks of the new year, 317 manatee deaths were reported across Florida, CBSMiami reported. Since then, that number has risen to at least 432 deaths — about three times the normal amount of deaths in the state by this time of year, The Weather Channel reported. The five-year average for manatee deaths is 578. "This is the worst that I've ever seen," Phil Stasik, who witnessed 13 manatee carcasses washed up on the shore of the Indian River Lagoon in Merritt Island while kayaking, said in an e-mail to Florida Today, according to The Weather Channel. Due to limitations from the COVID-19 pandemic, the state has struggled to maintain its manatee research, usually performing necroscopies on as many manatees as possible. But over two-thirds of manatee carcasses this year have gone unrecovered, according to The Weather Channel. Until recently, this has left scientists without answers. But recent information shows that a combination of environmental conditions and human impacts may explain the tragic event, The Weather Channel reported. "Preliminary information indicates that a reduction in food availability is a contributing factor," the FWC wrote in a statement. "While the investigation is ongoing, initial assessments indicate the high number of emaciated manatees is likely due to a decline in food availability. Seagrass and macro algae coverage in this region and specifically in the Indian River Lagoon has declined significantly." Manatees gather in warm locales of water, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel. They then will swim to colder areas to feed on seagrass. The problem, however, is that seagrass is increasingly limited in these cold locales, forcing the manatees to swim back, hungry and malnourished.  Sewage spills and contaminated water canals have caused this decline in seagrass, according to Patrick Rose, an aquatic biologist and executive director of the Save the Manatee Club, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported.  In 1973, manatees were listed as "endangered" under the Endangered Species Act and only a few hundred remained. But after a dramatic recovery in 2017, where an estimated 6,620 manatees were swimming in Florida, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service moved the species down to "threatened," spurring controversy, The Washington Post reported.

Removing Kennebec dams will not bring back the past -I am writing to discuss the Kennebec River Management Plan currently being proposed by the Department of Marine Resources. In their plan they are recommending that eventually all the dams between Waterville and Madison be removed to allow for fish passage. I believe their main goal is to allow Atlantic salmon to reach the Sandy River, which was part of their historic spawning grounds.   I disagree with the part of their plan that calls for the removal of all the dams on the river. These dams, most of which were built many years before we were born, are now owned by Brookfield LLC. Brookfield has spent millions of dollars upgrading the generating facilities at these dams and they continue to provide clean hydropower to thousands of homes throughout central Maine. Why during this time when we are continuously talking about global warming and clean energy plans would we want to remove these dams? Brookfield has submitted plans to build state-of-the-art fish passage facilities at all their dams, costing millions of dollars. In fact, they have already spent over $11 million to construct fish passage facilities at their newest dam, the Hydro-Kennebec Dam. Yet DMR has indicated that these will not work well enough to meet their plan and have called for their removal rather than working with Brookfield to design one that will.  I am sorry but things are not going to return to the way they were a thousand years ago. Since that time, along the Kennebec in our area, the Kennebec Sanitary Treatment Plant was constructed, log dives were discontinued, the Scott Paper Pulp Mill in Winslow was shut down and a new pulp mill in Skowhegan (now Sappi) was constructed at its current location. One of the main reasons it was constructed there was because of the abundant water supply provide by the impoundment created by the Shawmut Dam. If the Shawmut Dam is removed the water level at that location will drop by 15 to 20 feet. The mill’s current water intake structure, located along the west bank of the river, will be useless.

Texas Faces Wildfire Threat Amid "Extreme Drought" After Historic Deep Freeze --Weather-battered Texas can't catch a break. Last month, the Lone Star State experienced a "historic" plunge in temperatures that nearly collapsed the power grid. Governor Greg Abbott has issued warnings about elevated wildfire risks in several state regions this week, reported CBS Austin. Abbott said Tuesday that the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Texas A&M Forest Service, and the Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) are preparing to respond to wildfires if they break out in the Panhandle, Western Plains, Trans Pecos, and the South Texas Plains due to warm, dry, and windy conditions. "As Texans in the Panhandle, Western Plains, South Texas Plains, and Trans Pecos area face a significant threat of wildfires, I urge Texans in these communities to heed the guidance of their local leaders and avoid any outdoor burning that could spark wildfires," said Abbott. "The State of Texas is working alongside local officials and emergency management leaders on the ground to keep our communities safe and mitigate the threat that wildfires pose." According to the US Drought Monitor, the areas of concern are located in "extreme" to "exceptional" drought areas. Fears are mounting of a Great Depression's Dust Bowl style drought developing in the Southwest.

Record Drought Strains the Southwest — The Southwest is locked in drought again, prompting cutbacks to farms and ranches and putting renewed pressure on urban supplies. Extreme to exceptional drought is afflicting between 57% and 90% of the land in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Arizona and is shriveling a snowpack that supplies water to 40 million people from Denver to Los Angeles, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The team of government and academic agencies that produces the monitor defines a drought as a period of unusually dry weather that causes problems such as crop losses and water shortages. The current drought, which began last year, is already shaping up as one of the most severe on record in the Southwest. Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years in 126 years of federal records during 2020, while Arizona and Colorado had their second-driest and New Mexico its fourth, according to Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He said the Southwest has been mired in drought for much of the past two decades, and the latest was brought on after one of the driest summers on record.In Southern New Mexico’s Elephant Butte Irrigation District, farmers have already been warned they face getting as little as 16% of their normal allotment in June. “It’s horrific here,” said Gary Esslinger, treasurer-manager of the district in Las Cruces, N.M. He said the 6,500 area farmers already have taken one-third of their 90,640 irrigable acres out of production from previous drought years and likely will keep those offline this year as well. New Mexico State Engineer John D’Antonio Jr. said his office is asking other farmers to not plant this year, if they can, as reservoirs statewide hold just 20% of what they normally do. The drought conditions have also spread into California, where the snowpack was 58% of the average as of Monday, according to historical records that go back a little less than a century. That raises the likelihood of dryness that could contribute to wildfires and trigger cutbacks to agriculture, state officials say. A deluge of precipitation at the end of the winter rainy season could lessen the risk of those outcomes, but isn’t currently in the forecast. “We have time, but we do have to keep our fingers crossed,” Mr. Fuchs said. Meteorologists say a combination of a warming climate and shifting atmospheric patterns that divert storms north are making the dry spells more frequent and pronounced. As a result, the landscape isn’t getting enough time to recover before the next drought sets in, Mr. Fuchs said. Colorado enjoyed an above-normal snow season a year ago but much of the spring runoff was soaked up by soil still dry from previous drought, he said. The state went on in late 2020 to suffer its biggest wildfires on record. 

Atmospheric drying will lead to lower crop yields, shorter trees across the globe  -A global observation of an ongoing atmospheric drying -- known by scientists as a rise in vapor pressure deficit -- has been observed worldwide since the early 2000s. In recent years, this concerning phenomenon has been on the rise, and is predicted to amplify even more in the coming decades as climate change intensifies. In a new paper published in the journal Global Change Biology, research from the University of Minnesota and Western University in Ontario, Canada, outlines global atmospheric drying significantly reduces productivity of both crops and non-crop plants, even under well-watered conditions. The new findings were established on a large-scale analysis covering 50 years of research and 112 plant species. "When there is a high vapor pressure deficit, our atmosphere pulls water from other sources: animals, plants, etc.," said senior author Walid Sadok, an assistant professor in the Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics at the University of Minnesota. "An increase in vapor pressure deficit places greater demand on the crop to use more water. In turn, this puts more pressure on farmers to ensure this demand for water is met -- either via precipitation or irrigation --so that yields do not decrease." "We believe a climate change-driven increase in atmospheric drying will reduce plant productivity and crop yields -- both in Minnesota and globally," said Sadok. In their analysis, researchers suspected plants would sense and respond to this phenomenon in unexpected ways, generating additional costs on productivity. Findings bear out that various plant species -- from wheat, corn, and even birch trees -- take cues from atmospheric drying and anticipate future drought events. Through this process, plants reprogram themselves to become more conservative -- or in other words: grow smaller, shorter and more resistant to drought, even if the drought itself does not happen. Additionally, due to this conservative behavior, plants are less able to fix atmospheric CO2 to perform photosynthesis and produce seeds. The net result? Productivity decreases.

 Mekong River drops to critically low levels - The Mekong River water levels in Thailand have fallen to critically low levels, posing a serious threat of severe drought during the dry season.The water levels are dropping faster than in previous years due to the construction of dams in Laos, as well as low rainfall in catchment areas, Thailand's Nakhon Phanom province officials said.In the three main tributaries, which are Nam Kam, Nam Songkhram, and Nam Un, water levels are at 10 to 20 percent of their capacities, resulting in a shortage of water supply for agriculture. Underground water is also running dry, local reports said.Irrigation officials have stopped releasing water from Nong Han lake in Sakon Nakhon, Thailand, into the Mekong River via the Nam Kam stream, to irrigate around 96 million square m (1.03 billion square feet) of farmland during the dry season.Farmers have been urged to grow crops outside irrigated zones and look for other sources of water to cope with the dry spell.Satellite images below were captured over the same area of Pak Chom District, Thailand by Sentinel-2 satellite ~mid-March 2016 to 2021:

Ohio River flooding continues; restaurants prepare to clean up - (WAVE) - For the past week, the Ohio River has continued to rise following recent rain. The river’s water, mixed with mud, trash and grime, has gone out of its banks and into homes and businesses. In New Albany, water covered the road along the amphitheater Friday afternoon. Anna Hornung and her family were downtown to cash in their tokens for a reading club before walking over to sit and look at the river. “We came down here, and it’s all flooded,” she said. “It’s usually where we ride our bikes in the summer.” She was surprised to see the water so high, nearly covering street lamps and crosswalk signs. In Louisville, dozens of streets were also closed Thursday and a large portion of River Road was impassable. Captain’s Quarters Riverside Grille posted a video Friday on Facebook Live, showing a few feet of water inside and outside the restaurant.“Yes, once again, it’s flooding,” an employee said in the video. “So I’m going to take you on a little tour of the restaurant. We still have about a foot to go before the crest, then it’ll start to drop.” According to the video, the restaurant floods the inside of the building with fresh water to keep the muddy Ohio River water out. “You can see inside versus out,” he said in the video. “Crystal clear versus muddy. Makes the clean up much much easier.” The clean up will take a few days once the water recedes. 

Evacuations ordered as heavy rains cause flooding and dam breach in Maui, Hawaii - Emergency evacuations have been ordered for residents in the Haiku area in Maui, Hawaii, after heavy rainfall has caused a breach on the Kaupakalua Dam on Monday afternoon, March 8, 2021. Authorities also warned people that flooding in the area is "life-threatening".Heavy rainfall in Maui has resulted in flooding and dam breach, leaving many residents trapped in their homes. The Maui Fire Department said it received more than a dozen calls for assistance.Mayor Michael Victorino surveyed the flooding and reported that Kaupakalua Road was impassable in some areas. At least six homes were heavily damaged or destroyed.After a breach was confirmed on the Kaupakalua Dam on Monday afternoon, Victorino urgedpeople to evacuate from the Haiku area."For the safety of evacuees and emergency personnel, I urge everyone to stay away from the Haiku area," said the mayor. "MPD and Maui Fire and Rescue personnel are assisting those needing help.""Please stay home, off the road, and away from streams, rivers, culverts, and drainage ditches even if they are currently dry.""Visitors and residents should understand this is life-threatening flooding," he noted.In a statement, Hawaii Governor David Ige remarked that the state is assisting Maui County as people evacuate. "The health and safety of our residents and visitors in Haiku and surrounding areas remain our top priority as heavy rain is posing a potential threat to the dam.""Please stay out of the area until the danger has passed and continue to monitor local media for updates."

Hawaii Declares State Of Emergency In The Wake Of Damaging Floods  --Hawaii Governor David Ige issued an emergency declaration amid heavy rains that triggered severe flooding across Oahu and Maui on Tuesday. Ige said the declaration speeds up the state's process to spend funds and dispatch first responders to affected areas. "The declaration supports the state's efforts to provide quick and efficient relief of suffering, damage, and losses caused by flooding and other effects of the heavy rains," the governor said.The emergency order was declared after a dam overflowed on the island of Maui. Flooding wiped out homes, caused landslides, and left some areas completely devastated. The emergency declaration covers Maui, Kalawao, O'ahu, and Kaua'i and continues through May 8.  The Honolulu Department of Emergency Management evacuated people in Waleiwa, a North Shore community in the Waialua District of the island of Oʻahu, earlier this week and placed them in emergency shelters. Over the two days, the National Weather Service reported the following rainfall totals:

• Mount Waialeale: 10.87 inches
• Kilohana: 6.26 inches
• North Wailua Ditch: 5.99 inches
• Kalaheo: 4.32 inches

In Maui, heavy rains damaged roads and battered bridges. Hawaii News Now reported two people had been swept away in the floods on Tuesday. One was rescued, and the other remains missing. "Intense rain across much of Hawaii led to flash floods and mudslides from Monday into Tuesday, hitting the island of Maui especially hard. Some residents are reporting this is the worst flooding they have seen in over 25 years in Hawaii," tweeted AccuWeather.

Heavy Rain in Hawaii Prompts State of Emergency -Heavy rain and flooding in Hawaii have collapsed bridges, forced evacuations, destroyed homes and prompted the governor to declare a state of emergency Tuesday."I've just signed an emergency proclamation for the State of Hawai'i after heavy rains and flooding caused extensive damage to both public and private property across the islands," Gov. David Ige wrote on Twitter.Ige said the extreme weather would likely last until Friday. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Honolulusaid early Wednesday morning that all of the Hawaiian islands remained under a flash flood watch (one step lower than a flash flood warning) until 6 p.m. local time."Significant flooding may occur due to the overflow of streams and drainages," NWS warned. "Roads in several areas may be closed, along with property damage in urban or low lying spots due to runoff. Landslides may also occur in areas with steep terrain."Heavy rainfall on Monday caused Maui's Kaupakalua Dam to overflow, NBC News reported. Initially, officials worried that the dam had been breached, but later determined it had not suffered any structural damage. Still, water levels reached about three feet below the top of the dam. This prompted evacuation orders for those living nearby.Flooding on Maui also destroyed the Peahi Bridge and heavily damaged the Kaupakalua Bridge in Haiku."This has been unprecedented flooding, and we will be making damage assessments today," Maui Mayor Michael Victorino told KITV 4. "I ask everyone to stay vigilant and be safe."Additionally, flood water damaged or destroyed at least six homes, and the Maui Fire Department received more than a dozen rescue calls from residents trapped in their homes. About 1,300 Maui customers also lost power, CNN reported.Over on Oahu, two bridges in Wong's Village crumbled when a truck drove over them as water levels were about to reach the road. Evacuations were also ordered Tuesday in Haleiwa due to a stream flooding, CBS News reported. That order has since been lifted.

Massive landslide cuts off access to Kauai north shore, Hawaii --Heavy rains caused a major landslide on the Kuhio Highway in Kauai, Hawaii, on Thursday, March 11, 2021. The severe weather also led to flooding that prompted the closure of three state parks, along the said highway.  A huge landslide occurred at the Kuhio Highway following a night of heavy rains.According to Ed Sniffen with the Hawaii Department of Transportation (HDOT), there is up to 1.5 m (5 feet) of surface material that slid down. "It also started buckling the road before it slid."HDOT added that if the weather permits, crews will begin clearing operations to remove debris. "Once we start looking at the roadway and the slope itself, we can start seeing what kind of timeframe we would have to reopen again," said Sniffen."Best case scenario, the roadway is in great condition, slopes are stable, we just need to move debris, then we could potentially open everything up by Tuesday of next week."Crews are being assembled to help residents in need of assistance, said Kauai County Mayor Derek Kawakami. "This is an all-hands-on-deck operation and we’ve been through this situation before in 2018." “We do have resources and community partners out there that have been deployed that are set up for food pantries."

 New Report: U.S. Dams, Levees Get D Grades, Need $115 Billion in Upgrades --The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave America’s infrastructure a C- grade in itsquadrennial assessment issued March 3. ASCE gave the nation’s flood control infrastructure – dams and levees – a D grade. This is a highly concerning assessment, given that climate change is increasingly stressing dams and levees as increased evaporation from the oceans drives heavier precipitation events.  The group’s 2021 report card gave the nation’s 91,000-plus dams a D grade, jus as they had received in each of its assessments since the first one was issued in 1998. Drawing upon the latest data from the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, ASCE estimated the cost of rehabilitating all U.S. dams at $93.6 billion, of which $27.6 billion is needed for federal dams. Over half (56.4%) of U.S. dams are privately owned. The cost to rehabilitate deficient high-hazard-potential dams, whose failure would result in loss of life, is estimated at nearly $20 billion. Over 2,300 dams in the U.S. are in this category. The average age of America’s dams is 57 years  The report identified one program that can help address existing funding needs – the High Hazard Potential Dam Rehabilitation Program authorized in the 2016 Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act. The goal of this program is to help fund the repair, removal, or rehabilitation of the nation’s non-federal, high-hazard-potential dams. In federal fiscal year 2020, Congress appropriated  $10 million for the program, less than 0.1% of the state dam safety group’s needs estimate, and a quarter of the $40 million Congress had authorized for the program. At least five fatal dam failures occurred in the 1970s – Teton Dam, Idaho (14 deaths), Kelly Barnes, Georgia (39 deaths), Buffalo Creek coal slurry impoundment dam, West Virginia (125 deaths), Rapid City, South Dakota (238 deaths), and Johnstown, Pennsylvania (84 deaths). These failures ushered in the modern dam safety era. AP reported that many states have problematic private dams whose owners can’t be identified. In 2018, for instance, Rhode Island listed 32 high- or significant-hazard dams with safety concerns and unknown owners.  In spring 2019, the midwest U.S. experienced severe flooding, causing over $20 billion in damage. More than 80 Corps of Engineers levee systems were overtopped or breached, sometimes multiple times, and more than 700 miles of levees were damaged. Levee repairs were estimated at $1 billion. However, the Army Corps estimated that the levees prevented almost $350 billion in flood damages from October 2018 to September 2019. At least 17 million people live or work behind a levee, and U.S. levees protect $2.3 trillion in property, so the condition of these levees is critical. In addition, approximately 1,400 sites listed in the federal Toxic Release Inventory – including many EPA Superfund sites – lie in areas at high risk of flooding, according to a 2018 New York Times analysis. In that context, the Civil Engineers’ 2021 report card grade of D for the nation’s 40,000 miles of levees is concerning. Drawing upon the latest data from the Corps of Engineers, the ASCE says in its report card that $21 billion is needed to improve and maintain just the moderate to high-risk levees in the Corps of Engineers portfolio. That is about 15% of the known levees in the U.S.

 Jackson Residents Are Going on Week Four Without Water in Mississippi -- After a winter storm caused record low temperatures and snowfall across the U.S. in February, thousands of residents in Jackson, Mississippi, lost water in their homes. As the city slowly fixes water breaks, some residents are now in their fourth week without water.Tens of thousands of Jackson’s 160,000 residents went weeks without water after the storm, and the rest of the city was, and still is, under a boil-water advisory. Last week, the city’s public works director Charles Williams said that a quarter of the city, or about 10,000 connections,still lacked water. As of Friday, the city had restored connections to 42,000 customers total and fewer than 5,000 customers still lacked water.The storm had frozen machinery at the city’s water treatment plant and had caused 101 water main breaks and leaks, at least 70 of which the city had repaired last week, the city said. The National Guard has been assisting in water distribution to the residents of the city, but they’re still waiting for hours in lines to get water bottles or non-potable water for flushing toilets.There are many residents, however, who can’t access the water that the city is distributing. With over a quarter of the city’s residents in poverty,many people don’t have the time or resources to wait in lines for hours for water.Many organizers, residents and observers say that part of the reason for the crisis is that the city has a majority Black population, and the city has thus had less funding and support. Over 82 percent of the city is Black, and the city has been losing residents, mostly white ones, for decades. The declining tax revenue as a result of the population loss is just one contributor to the city’s infrastructure problem.The Mississippi city’s infrastructure has been in poor shape for decades, and the city’s mayor, Chokwe Antar Lumumba, has called Jackson an “aging city with an aging budget.” The city has a budget of about $300 million a year and “a more than $2 billion issue with our infrastructure,” Lumumba said during a press conference last month.Donna Ladd, editor of The Jackson Free Press and the Mississippi Free Press, said in an article for MSNBC that the state and city’s white supremacist leadership in the past decades has set up Jackson for failure.“The fact that low-income Jacksonians are living amid the stench of toilets that won’t flush is a direct legacy of white-supremacist thinking at the state level,” wrote Ladd. “It is the state of Mississippi’s role to help fix this problem.” White state-level politicians, Ladd says, have continually made moves to stunt Jackson’s growth, financially and otherwise.

Heavy rains cause flash fooding in southern Spain -Heavy rains from Friday, March 5, 2021, triggered flash flooding in southern Spain, particularly in the regions of Andalusia and Murcia. Dozens of people were rescued from inundated homes after a river broke its banks, while several areas were cut off.In Malaga Province, up to 127.2 mm (5 inches) of rain fell in Estepona in a 24 hour period to Friday, while 77.8 mm (3 inches) fell in Cadiz, both in Andalusia. San Roque registered 92.6 mm (3.6 inches) the following day, March 6, according to AEMET.A total of 55 people were rescued from inundated houses in Los Barrios after the Palmones River broke its banks, the emergency services reported. Three of those rescued suffered hypothermia and needed healthcare assistance.Areas around San Roque, Tarifa, and Algeciras were affected, and at least six roads were closed due to flooding. The emergency services added that floodwaters from the Guadiaro River cut off some areas in Sotogrande.In the neighboring Murcia, the emergency services responded to 56 calls for help, mostly in the municipality of Aguilas where there were 20 incidents, 18 in Murcia, six in Cartegena, five in Los Alcarez, and three in Lorca, among others.

Flash floods leave 7 dead, 3 missing in Chlef, Algeria  - (video) At least seven fatalities were reported while three others remain missing as flash flooding swept through Chlef Province in Algeria on Saturday, March 6, 2021.Heavy rainfall on Saturday led to flash flooding in many areas in Chlef, particularly in the Oud Sly Commune. Three vehicles were swept away while nearby houses were damaged, according to Civil Protection.As of Sunday, March 7, authorities reported seven fatalities-- five of whom were believed to be from the same family. Meanwhile, the Civil Protection and other emergency workers continue the search operations for three others missing. Last year, severe flooding also affected the province of Jijel in northern Algeria after 140 mm (5.5 inches) of rain fell in a 24 hour period to December 21.

Severe flash floods hit Malacca, Malaysia (videos) Heavy rains triggered severe flash floods in Malacca, Malaysia, on Saturday, March 6, 2021. As a result, roads were paralyzed and many vehicles were swept away.Heavy rains fell for about an hour on Saturday, washing away vehicles. No injuries were reported as the motorists and passengers managed to get out.Many roads were congested, including Taman Melaka Baru and Cheng.According to the disaster management committee of Malacca, five areas were affected by the flooding -- Rama Pantain, Taman Merdeka, Taman Sri Krubong, Taman Krubong Jaya, and Kampung Tampoi. Authorities said crews were deployed to clear debris and fallen trees and several locations. The disaster management committee added that they will address flood concerns and solutions immediately.

 Extreme cold grips northern European Russia - Unusual, record cold temperatures gripped the northern European Russia region this month, with temperatures dropping to piercing -40 °C (-40 °F) and below. In addition to record temperatures, frosts also intensified from the Kola Peninsula to Vorkuta.Unseasonal cold temperatures gripped the north of European Russia as the mercury dropped to -40°C (-40°F) in mid-March. Pictures of towns show abandoned buildings and homes engulfed in deep snow.In the Murmansk region, the Krasnoshchelye settlement had a record cold of -34.5 °C (-30.1 °F).In the Arkhangelsk region, the Mezen city registered a new daily low of -31.9 °C (-25.4 °F). In the Republic of Komi, Pechora set a record low temperature of -38.1 °C (-36.6 °F). Also, in the Vorkuta area, temperatures plummeted to 40 °C (-40 °F) and below in some areas. Due to the piercing cold, frosts further intensified from the Kola Peninsula to the Vorkuta areas.On Tuesday, March 9, Petrozavodsk dropped to -29.4 °C (-20.9 °F), breaking the record of -26.9 °C (-16.4 °F) set in 1945.On Wednesday, March 10, Syktyvkar broke a record set in 1908 as temperatures dropped to -32.5 °C (-26.5 °F). Meanwhile, St. Petersburg registered -20.3 °C (-4.5 °F), smashing the record set 50 years ago. The record holder for the coldest night on March 10 is still the temperature set in 1888 when the mercury pummeled to -25.5 °C (-13.9 °F).According to Olga Kozak, head of the meteorological forecast department of the Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Komi Republic, the unseasonal cold weather was due to an ultra polar invasion-- the influx of Arctic air from the Kara Sea.

Extensive damage in New Caledonia after passage of Tropical Cyclone "Niran" –(videos) *-+ The center of Tropical Cyclone "Niran" passed just south of New Caledonia on March 6, 2021, causing extensive damage to the power grid and vegetation across the island. At least two people were injured and more than 20 000 left without power. Niran was Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale as it passed near the state; it peaked on March 5 with maximum sustained winds of 255 km/h (160 mph) -- one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Southwest Pacific.The cyclone brought a lot of rain and wind gusts of up to 220 km/h (135 mph) to New Caledonia, downing power lines and ripping roofs off of buildings in areas such as Dumbea, on the outskirts of Noumea (population 94 000).One child was injured by broken glass from a bay window and several ships forced aground near Noumea, authorities reported.At 03:00 UTC on March 7, the cycle was moving along the southwest periphery of the deep layered subtropical rige to the east.The harsh upper level dynamics, along with the decreased sea surface temperatures, has decreased the system intensity over the past six hours as it underwent a subtropical transition. Niran peaked as a Category 5 cyclone on the Australian scale with maximum sustained winds of 255 km/h (160 mph) on March 5, becoming one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Southwest Pacific.

 Sea level rise is impacting populous coastal areas four times faster than global average, study says - Coastal communities are experiencing sea level rise four times worse than global water rise, according to a new study released Monday.Groundwater pumping, extraction of materials from the ground and sediment production are all happening near the coasts and that is causing the land to actually sink -- compounding the effects of a rising sea level.It is no coincidence that these are the same locations where people live, worsening the impacts and increasing the vulnerability.Many of the largest, most populated cities in the world are built along the deltas of major rivers, where there is the added exposure of rivers connecting to the ocean.  According to the study, it quantifies "global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.5 mm per year over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm per year."This is the first ever study that factors in land subsidence into current sea level rise observations globally. "We've actually quantified (sea level rise) and are able to get the relative magnitude. And it's surprising -- it's surprisingly large. We're making the point that climate change is bad and climate induced sea level rise is bad," Robert Nicholls, lead author of this research and director of the UK's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, told CNN. "But we have this additional process that is making things even worse. And of course, these things add up. It doesn't really matter whether the sea rises or the land sinks, the people living on the coast still have the same impacts." Sea level rise is happening in many parts of the world. Where the land is rising, sea level rise is not as significant. Not as many people live where the land is rising, however.But where the land sinks, the relative rise of the sea is higher -- and unfortunately that is where people tend to live. In fact, more than one in five people live along the coastline where the sea level is increasing at 10 mm (or 0.4 inches) or more per year, despite the fact that it encompasses less than 1% of the world's coastline.

Rising Sea Levels Inundating Coastal Economies Four Times Faster =  The economic impacts of rising sea levels will be felt four times faster by people living in some of the world’s biggest coastal cities, which are sinking beneath their own weight into manmade cavities created below the surface. The scientific assessment published Monday in Nature Climate Change is the second in a month to show that coastal economies are more vulnerable than previously thought to the danger of rising sea levels. The extraction of groundwater and other resources from beneath cities including Jakarta, New Orleans and Shanghai is causing them to slowly sink, a phenomena called subsidence, resulting in greater risks from flooding and storm surges. “Due to its coincidence with major population centers, subsidence has global social and economic implications,” reads the peer-reviewed research written by scientists from China, France, Germany and the U.K. “These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest.” Displacement rate map of Jakarta using information from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission show how areas of the city are subsiding, largely a result of groundwater extraction. While sea-levels have risen at about 2.5 millimeters a year globally over the last two decades, coastal residents representing some 58% of the world’s population have experienced average relative sea-level increases of 7.8 to 9.9 millimeters annually, according to the research, which used satellite data to gauge changes in land elevation. The risks of groundwater extraction have long been known in urban areas like Miami-Dade County in Florida, which is built on the Biscayne Aquifer, some 4,000 square miles of unusually shallow and porous limestone, whose tiny air pockets fill with rainwater and runoff that satiates some 2.7 million people. The new research suggests policy makers can regulate development and groundwater extraction to slow down and mitigate the impact of higher oceans. “Human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage,” the researchers wrote. “Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise.” For other cities like Jakarta, the window to mitigate sinking ground levels and rising seas is already closing. Indonesia is relocating its capital to higher ground on the island of Borneo, a move that will cost billions of dollars by the time it begins later this decade. “One of the main reasons that Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, is being moved to Borneo is because the city is sinking due to groundwater extraction from shallow wells,” lead researcher Robert Nicholls of the U.K.’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research said in a statement. “We hope that our analysis improves the understanding of how sea-level rise and subsidence are hand-in hand for science and coastal management policy worldwide. Jakarta might be just the beginning.”

 Wildfires ravage Argentine Patagonia, leaving 250 homes destroyed and 15 people missing - Wildfires are burning through Argentine Patagonia since Tuesday, March 9, 2021, leaving some 250 homes destroyed, dozens injured, and around 15 people missing. As of March 12, the flames have scorched about 2 000 ha (4 900 acres).The fires may have started in a Las Golondrinas sector and then advanced towards Lago Puelo on Tuesday, March 9, according to officials."It's a fire that began within the forest where there are the extreme conditions for it to expand," said Lago Puelo Mayor Augusto Sanchez.Winds caused the flames to spread rapidly, devastating forests and some 250 houses and also prompting about 350 people to evacuate.Seven people sustained injuries, one of whom was seriously hurt. Environment Minister Juan Cabandié reported at a press conference that at least 15 people went missing.Other areas affected by the fires were El Bolsón, El Maitén, Epuyén, Futaleufú, and El Hoyo. In El Hoyo, rains have put out the fire but embers remain under the ash layer, regional government spokesman Alejandro Otero told the AFP. As of Friday, the flames have burned around 2 000 ha (4 900 acres) of land. The national government has deployed two helicopters, three fire hydrant planes, 12 fire engines, support vehicles, and 62 firefighters to combat the blaze, according to President Alberto Fernandez.

Ash rises up to 10.7 km (35 000 feet) a.s.l. after 10th paroxysm at Etna volcano, Italy --A rapid increase in the amplitude of volcanic tremor at Etna volcano started at 01:30 UTC on March 7, 2021, leading up to an increase in Strombolian activity at the SE crater around 03:30 UTC and 10^th paroxysm since February 16. The Aviation Color Code was raised to red at 02:19 UTC. At 02:19 UTC, strong strombolian activity was forming an eruptive cloud to a height of about 5.2 km (17 000 feet) a.s.l., moving E and to 6 km (20 000 feet) by 03:30 UTC.Lava flows were at about 2.8 km (1.7 miles) a.s.l. at 03:50 UTC.Lava fountaining started shortly after 06:30 UTC and ended around 07:10.By 07:15 UTC, the top of the ash cloud was reaching 10.7 km (35 000 feet) above sea level.

Ash rises up to 9 km (29 500 feet) a.s.l. after 11th paroxysm at Etna, Italy - Strombolian activity at Etna's Southeast Crater intensified again at 18:35 UTC on March 9, 2021, and reached the fountain phase between 23:00 UTC and midnight on March 10. This was the 11^thparoxysmal eruptive episode at the volcano since February 16.Ash column rose up to 8 or 9 km (29 500 feet) above sea level and drifted in the ENE direction, resulting in ash and lapilli relapses in the Mascali-Fiumefreddo area.Lava flow expanded from the eastern side of the Southeast Crater toward Valle del Bove, reaching an altitude of about 1.8 km (1.1 miles).Another small overflow took place at the saddle vent on the southwest side of the crater.Lava fountain activity ceased at 03:30 UTC and was followed by modest ash emissions which ended at around 06:00 UTC. The paroxysm was accompanied by usual geophysical signals -- a strong increase in the magnitude of volcanic tremor, whose main source had stabilized under the Southeast Crater, and a rapid decrease at the end of the lava fountain phase; infrasonic signals and soil deformation.

San Cristobal volcano erupts, heavy ash blankets the city of Chinandega, Nicaragua -- Nicaraguan San Cristobal volcano erupted at 19:26 UTC on March 9, 2021, blanketing the city of Chinandega and surrounding communities in ash. Heavy ash emission lasted approximately 30 minutes, accompanied by deep rumbling. AFP reported cars had to switch on headlights as everything went dark.Ashfall was reported as far as 17 km (10.5 miles) from the volcano.Nicaragua Journalist Carol Altamirano said everything was grey... 'the crops of rice, sesame, vegetable gardens, fruit trees, and cattle pasture is covered in ash.'Altamirano said farmers in the area had to cover their water sources and move animals to safe places. "In the city, people used umbrellas, caps, and face masks to shield themselves from the ash."The Washington VAAC said volcanic ash rose to an estimated 600 m (1 900 feet) above the summit, moving SW. It was very difficult to observe it on satellite imagery due to cloud cover.

Large eruption at Sangay volcano, ash to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) a.s.l., Ecuador --A large eruption started at Sangay volcano, Ecuador at around 04:00 UTC on March 6, 2021, producing a volcanic ash column up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level, according to the Washington VAAC.Strong ashfall was reported in Chimborazzo: Pallatanga, Chunichi, Guamote, Alausi, and Cumanda; moderate in Guayas: Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno; and mild in Milagro, San Jacinto de Yaguachi, El Triunfo; Los Rios: Babahoyo; Bolivar: Chillanes, San Miguel and Canar: Suscal. According to the IG report, the cloud generated by the volcano was expected to reach the province of Santa Elena, causing a slight ashfall.  By 21:20 UTC on March 6, the leading edge of volcanic ash to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level was 296 km (184 miles) west of the summit while volcanic ash to 8.2 km (27 000 feet) a.s.l. extended 130 km (80 miles) WSW of the summit. A total of 11 198 ha (27 670 acres) of crops have been destroyed in the provinces of Bolivar, Chimborazo, Guayas, and Los Ríos, affecting at least 24 557 farmers, after the major eruption of Sangay volcano on September 20, 2020, when volcanic ash also rose to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) a.s.l.The National Risk Management Service has distributed 26 250 volcano kits to those most affected in the provinces of Bolivar, Chimborazo and Guayas. The Ministry of Agriculture has delivered forage for the cattle.IGEPN volcanologists said that explosions and ash emissions on September 20 were much more energetic than any of those observed in the past couple of months. A large ash cloud was reported at 09:40 UTC, with the highest part of the cloud heading east, while the lower part headed west of the volcano.On September 24, El Comercio reported 55 000 ha (135 900 acres) of banana crops were affected by ashfall, especially in the provinces of Guayas and Los Rios.This area's production accounts for 25 to 30% of the fruit that is exported to the world on a weekly basis, equivalent to 1.5 million boxes. The worst affected areas were Naranjito and El Triunfo in Guayas, and Mata de Cacao in Los Rios.Sangay is located in the Morona Santiago province, 41 km (25 miles) north-west of the city of Macas.  The current eruptive period began in May 2019. The activity is characterized by lava flows, pyroclastic density currents (pyroclastic flows), and gas and ash emissions.

Significant explosive eruption at Sangay volcano, ash to 12.5 km (41 000 feet) a.s.l., Ecuador. –(satellite video) A significant explosive eruption took place at Sangay volcano, Ecuador from 08:15 to 10:45 UTC on Thursday, March 11, 2021.According to the Washington VAAC, volcanic ash to 12.5 km (41 000 feet) above sea level is extending up to 46 km (29 miles) in all quadrants as of 10:50 UTC, with additional volcanic ash up to 12.5 km possible up to 111 km (70 miles) W of the summit.IGEPN warned ashfall is likely in the province of Chimborazo and urged all affected residents to take necessary precautions.A large eruption started at the volcano at around 04:00 UTC on March 6, 2021, producing a volcanic ash column up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level.Strong ashfall was reported in Chimborazzo: Pallatanga, Chunichi, Guamote, Alausi, and Cumanda; moderate in Guayas: Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno; and mild in Milagro, San Jacinto de Yaguachi, El Triunfo; Los Rios: Babahoyo; Bolivar: Chillanes, San Miguel and Canar: Suscal.Authorities urged citizens to keep calm and take the appropriate precautions to protect their health.By 21:20 UTC on March 6, the leading edge of volcanic ash to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level was 296 km (184 miles) west of the summit while volcanic ash to 8.2 km (27 000 feet) a.s.l. extended 130 km (80 miles) WSW of the summit.

New seismic tremor on Reykjanes Peninsula, more than 22 000 earthquakes since February 24, Iceland - A new seismic tremor similar to the one measured on March 3 started on Reykjanes Peninsula at 00:22 UTC on March 7, 2021.Today's tremor was much shorter than the one on March 3 -- it lasted 20 minutes vs. several hours four days ago.Seismicity increased following the tremor with earthquakes larger than M4.In total, around 1 300 earthquakes were detected from 00:00 to 12:25 UTC. Nearly 40 had magnitude above 3 and five above 4.The largest was M5.0 at 02:02 UTC, about 3 km (1.8 miles) WSW of Fagradalsfjall. It was felt widely in the SW-part of Iceland.Civil Protection and IMO experts met with the Police in Suðurnes and a representative of Grindavík at 03:30 UTC.It is the opinion of experts based on the available data, that the earthquakes that were detected last night and this morning in Grindavík are not due to a displacement of magma and are therefore not considered as a short-term predictor of an eruption.Similar bursts of tremor have been observed ahead of previous volcanic eruptions in Iceland. Magma movements are a likely cause for the ongoing signal, and it is possible that an effusive (lava-producing) eruption could occur close to Keilir, IMO said on March 3.As a precaution for domestic and international air travel, the volcanic Aviation Color Code for the Reykjanes Peninsula has been elevated from Yellow (elevated unrest) to Orange (heightened unrest) on March 3.Orange alert represents the third-highest level, with red reserved for an imminent or ongoing volcanic eruption.

 Magma chamber continues to expand, more than 35 000 earthquakes hit Reykjanes Peninsula in two weeks, Iceland -- The seismo-volcanic crisis on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland continues on March 11, 2021, with more than 35 000 earthquakes detected since February 24, 2021. The probability of an eruption is increasing and the most likely place where it might start is from Keilir to Fagradalsfjall.The Scientific Council for Civil Protection met at a teleconference on March 10, concluding that as the current situation lasts longer, the probability of an eruption increases.Processing of satellite images received on the morning of March 10 and the latest GPS measurements, confirm that magma is still restricted at the southern end of the magma channel that extends from Keilir to Fagradalsfjall. This place is still considered to be the most likely place in the event of an eruption.More earthquakes can be expected if the magma flow continues to expand and cause tension in the area.Scientists said it is important to closely monitor the activity on the southern slopes of Fagradalsfjall to see if this activity is an indication that the magma channel is expanding to the south.As the situation is assessed now, the magma is very shallow, at a depth of 1 - 1.5 km (0.6 - 0.9 miles). It is important to realize that magma could break its way all the way to the surface without much seismic activity. An example of this can be seen in the eruption that began at Fimmvörðuháls in 2010. At that time, there were no clear signs of the eruption on the Icelandic Met Office's measuring equipment and it was news from eyewitnesses that confirmed that magma had formed. In this light, IMO has set up webcams that can be used to monitor if magma occurs. More than 35 000 earthquakes were detected in the area since February 24, exceeding the number of earthquakes measured during the whole of 2020 -- which was characterized by unusually high seismic activity. In comparison, from 2014 to 2019, the number of earthquakes in the area was around 1 000 - 3 000 per year.

Greta Thunberg presses Biden administration to 'treat climate crisis like a crisis' -Climate change activist Greta Thunberg implored President Biden to get serious about tackling environmental issues facing the world and suggested the new administration has not done enough in the arena during his first two months in office. “Just treat the climate crisis like a crisis,” Thunberg said Sunday during an appearance on MSNBC. “They have said themselves that this is an existential threat, and they’d better treat it accordingly, which they are not," she added. "They are just treating the climate crisis as [if] it were a political topic among other topics.” Last month, the administration officially rejoined the Paris Climate Accord, a global agreement aimed at reducing emissions and pollution by the world's largest countries. Former president Donald Trump had pulled the U.S. out of the agreement, saying it was expensive and unnecessary. "We need the United States and every country to determine they will get on a path toward net-zero emissions by 2050. That is not something that we will do by countries just stepping up and saying 'hey, we commit,'" John Kerry, Biden's Special Envoy for Climate said when the U.S. rejoined the agreement. Thunberg became an international celebrity in 2019 after she delivered an impassioned speech scolding world leaders about what she said was a devastating lack of action on climate issues. Trump and the Swedish teenager also sparred on Twitter several times during his time in office. “I understand it’s difficult, and to be honest I would not want to be in a politician’s position right now. I can’t imagine how hard it must be,” she said during the MSNBC appearance. “How can you expect support and pressure from voters ... if you are not treating the crisis like a crisis?”

U.S. must slash emissions by at least 57% to meet Paris climate target: report (Reuters) - The United States needs to set a target to slash its greenhouse gas emissions between 57% and 63% below 2005 levels by 2030 in order to achieve the Biden administration’s longer-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, according to a new analysis released on Thursday. Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed President Joe Biden’s plans to decarbonize the electricity sector, commercial buildings and new vehicle fleet and found that in order for the United States to do its share to limit the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius - the goal of the Paris Agreement - it needs to cut at least 57% of its emissions by the end of the decade. The analysis comes before the United States is due to announce its new Paris Agreement pledge for 2030 known as a Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of a climate leaders’ summit the country will host on April 22. European Union officials and environmental groups are calling on Washington to reduce emissions at least 50% this decade below 2005 levels. “Having the U.S. taking such strong action would reverberate across the world, and result in other countries also stepping up to adopt the kind of targets they need to make global net zero a reality,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, a co-partner of the CAT with the NewClimate Institute. Other environmental groups including the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) joined the World Resources Institute, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council have coalesced around a 50% reduction target for 2030.  Biden’s climate team, led by National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy and Climate Envoy John Kerry, is working with all government agencies and holding meetings with utilities and car companies as it crafts its new goal. The CAT report says that the Biden administration plan to decarbonize the U.S. power sector by 2035 is consistent with a Paris Agreement pathway but it needs to strengthen plans to slash emissions in buildings and vehicles.

Biden Team Races to Assemble New Climate-Change Strategy – WSJ —The Biden administration is racing to complete a wide-ranging climate-change strategy next month, enlisting agencies across the government to craft a plan that could reshape the U.S. economy and disrupt major industries. President Biden and his senior aides are exploring pairing executive actions—like tighter pollution standards, targeted investments and changes in federal procurement—with congressional action to speed a shift toward low-carbon energy. The effort could rock fossil-fuel companies and boost renewable energy businesses, while for the first time putting extensive government requirements on the financial sector regarding climate policy. Administration officials are casting their strategy as a central component of their plan to revive the economy amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. “The things that we can do today to address climate are really plentiful, and will allow us to actually bounce back from Covid,” Gina McCarthy, the White House national climate adviser, said in an interview. “If the entire government works together, we can do things that won’t ask for sacrifice.” Business groups, even those that have warmed to government action on climate change, are concerned about a potentially heavy-handed reach into the economy. Many—like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute—support legislation to penalize carbon emissions across the economy, for instance, but balk at sector-targeted administrative actions. The Paris climate agreement, from which President Donald Trump withdrew and which Mr. Biden moved to rejoin during his first week in office, urges countries to ratchet up their emissions-reduction commitments every five years. Mr. Biden and his senior aides are under pressure from other nations to issue an ambitious target that will signal the U.S.’s commitment to the effort to reduce the emissions that most scientists say are the main contributor to increasing global temperatures. Biden administration officials have said they plan to unveil a new U.S. target for emissions reductions during a global climate-change summit in Washington next month. It will set a goal for reducing U.S. emissions over the next nine years. In private meetings in recent weeks, according to people involved in the discussions, outside environmental groups and climate data analysts have encouraged the White House to nearly double the emissions reduction target that then-President Barack Obama set in 2014. At the time, Mr. Obama promised to slash U.S. emissions 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The groups have presented modeling to the White House making the case that a target in the range of 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 is achievable, the people said, if it accounts for actions already being taken by cities, states, businesses and local governments. Last year, total U.S. emissions were about 21% lower than in 2005 in part because of the pause in economic activity driven by the pandemic.

U.S. Senate votes to confirm Biden EPA pick Michael Regan (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted to confirm Michael Regan as the next administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, which will play a central role in the Biden administration’s plans to slash greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, vehicles and oil and gas facilities.  The bipartisan tally in the Democratic-led Senate was 66-34 to confirm Regan, who will be the first Black man to lead the EPA. Regan will take the helm of the agency as it rebuilds after the Trump era, which had been focused on undoing Obama era regulations on industry, slashing the agency’s budget and staff and upending independent scientific panels. He will need to quickly ramp up the work of EPA staff as the new administration races to carry out President Joe Biden’s executive orders, which set goals to zero out emissions from power plants by 2035, revamp vehicle efficiency standards, accelerate the deployment of electric cars and crack down on methane emissions from oil and gas operations. Regan, 44, was the head of North Carolina’s environmental regulator, where he earned a reputation as a consensus builder.At his confirmation hearing, he was introduced by North Carolina’s two Republican senators and stressed that he will work with every state to ensure that their concerns about the transition to cleaner energy are heard.Republicans have said they are worried a rapid shift away from fossil fuels would kill jobs and stunt economic growth in the world’s top producer of oil and gas and have already criticized some of Biden’s early moves like canceling the permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, and pausing new leases for oil drilling on federal land.

Here’s what you need to know about 'the social cost of greenhouse gases'—a key climate metric --Putting an accurate figure on the cost of greenhouse gasses can have massive consequences on the future of climate change.  In order to do this, the new White House administration announced late February it will use the Obama-era estimates for the "social cost of greenhouse gasses" after adjusting them for inflation. The social cost of greenhouse gasses is a measurement tool established by industry experts to put a dollar figure on the total damages done by emitting one ton of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. "In many ways, it's the 'holy grail' of climate economics," Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University, tells CNBC Make Itin an email. "How much does each ton of CO2 emitted today cost us — and, thus, how much should each ton of CO2 cost for all of us to be making the right decisions?"  Answering that question is not easy.The measure "combines climate science and economics to help Federal agencies and the public understand the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions," writes Heather Boushey, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers. "The metric is a range of estimates, in dollars, of the long-term damage done by one ton of greenhouse gas emissions."  Factors that are considered include changes to agricultural productivity, human health effects, property damage from increased flood risk, natural disasters, disruption of energy systems, risk of conflict, environmental migration and the value of ecosystem services, according to technical support documents released by the Biden administration. There are estimates for the cost of three greenhouse gases: carbon,dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. For carbon dioxide, the social cost of releasing a metric ton is $51. A metric ton of methane costs $1500, and releasing a metric ton of nitrous oxide costs $18,000, according to the SCC measure.  Supporters of the measure argue it policy makers a way to make decisions by being able to account for the cost of a legislative action on the environment."The social cost of carbon, for example, is designed to capture the costs of climate damages on families, communities, businesses and more, ensuring they are factored into policy decisions by federal agencies," says Brooks of the Environmental Defense Fund.  Detractors say, however, that the measure's flaws render it an inefficient policymaking tool.  The implications of using an estimate which is hard to calculate is severe, Loris says, adding tool has been used in 150 regulations. "The higher figure would carry greater weight in terms of whether a project moves forward or not as part of the environmental review and permitting process," . "By boosting the climate cost of projects, regulator could use the social cost of carbon to derail everything from energy to infrastructure projects. Agencies can also use the higher value to justify new regulations on everything from power plants to appliances in your house."Monday's lawsuit — from Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Utah — calls the Biden administration calculation and use of the social cost of greenhouse gases "arbitrary and capricious."

‘Net Zero’ Carbon Emissions? More Like Not Zero - -- Companies buy indulgences, allowing them to continue burning fossil fuels. Every day, another company, city or state pledges to reach “net zero” carbon-dioxide emissions. Google and Apple claim their data centers are net zero. These companies’ massive computer systems use reliable electricity, largely from fuel-burning, CO2-emitting, grid connected generators within a few hundred miles. They claim net-zero emissions by offsetting the CO2-originating electricity they use by buying renewable energy credits for electricity generated from intermittent wind and solar at other places and times. It turns out that any company, no matter how it uses energy, can net-zero its emissions by helping reduce emissions anywhere. Native, a public-benefit corporation that helps companies “produce quantifiable emission reductions,” offers CO2 indulgence by claiming “website purchases are working with hunter-gatherer Hazda communities to Protect Biodiversity & Forests in Tanzania.” ProPublica’s review of carbon credits for a large tree-planting project in the Amazon ranked its effectiveness “worse than nothing” because projects caused ecological damage in other places. In 2007 Congress mandated the addition of cellulosic ethanol to gasoline to reach at least 5.5 billion gallons of biofuel in 2017. By 2017 the biofuel industry was able to produce only five million gallons, necessitating Environmental Protection Agency exemptions and another ethereal marketplace of “Renewable Identification Number” credits. During President Obama’s first term the EPA proposed a simple limit on new power plants, 454 kilograms on CO2 emitted per megawatt-hour. But unreliable wind and solar generators needed backup natural gas, and their combustion turbines emitted too much CO2 to comply. In 2015, EPA’s simple rule was scuttled in favor of a complex system of environmental-credits trading, the 1,560-page Clean Power Plan. Scams arise from such complex rules, such as the ones replacing petroleum with biodiesel fuel made from vegetables like soybeans. Biofuel producers get a $1 tax credit for each biofuel gallon produced, and these credits are sold to big oil producers so they can comply with EPA rules. The opportunistic Washakie Renewable Energy filed for credits totaling $644 million, while not producing a single gallon of biodiesel. Net zero is a new word for indulgences to emit CO2. When will a modern Martin Luther nail truth to the door of the cathedral of green religion?

It's unavoidable: we must ban fossil fuels to save our planet. Here's how we do it -Time is running out to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change. The 2018 special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “suggests a remaining budget of about 420 Gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 for a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.” The clock on this so-called remaining carbon budget started ticking at the beginning of 2018. Despite this stark warning, the world keeps emitting over 40 Gt of CO2 per year. In other words, the policy instruments that are currently being used across the globe to reduce CO2 emissions aren’t working. It is therefore time to ban fossil fuels.Since we have already drawn down over 120 Gt of CO2 from this carbon budget, we have now less than 300 Gt left. Combining the proved fossil fuel reserves reported in British Petroleum’s Statistical Review of World Energy with CO2 emission factors from the IPCC yields 3,600 Gt of CO2 emissions. This means that we can only afford to burn one twelfth of the fossil fuels we have already found. And this does not account for any greenhouse gas emissions from the ongoing melting of permafrost. The Arctic region alone is estimated to have 1,500 Gt of carbon stored in its soils, some of which is already being converted to CO2 by microbes and released into the atmosphere. Twice before we managed to mitigate a severe global environmental threat. In both cases we did this with the help of bans. Not with cap and trade systems, not with taxes, not with offsets, not with capture and sequestration, but with bans.The first example is leaded gasoline.  By the 1960s, tetraethyl-lead (TEL)was in virtually all US gasoline and was quickly expanding across the globe. It made some people very rich, many people sick, and caused catastrophic levels of lead pollution. It took over 60 years until leaded gasoline finally started to be phased out and banned all over the world. After the ban, lead levels in humans and the environment immediately started to plummet. The second example is chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs. In 1974, scientists showed that CFCs ended up in the stratosphere and thinned out its ozone layer, which protects humans, animals, and plants from excessive UV light exposure.  The famous Montreal Protocol from 1987 laid out a global plan for phasing out and banning CFCs. The ozone layer is now slowly recovering.

Lawmakers Raise Study Taking Grim Outlook On Biden Climate Plans - But Who’s Behind It? | Wyoming Public Media -- Wyoming's US Rep. Liz Cheney envisions a dark future for her home state under President Joe Biden.If the new administration extends its pause on new oil and gas drilling on public land, it would endanger Wyoming's economy, kill 18,000 jobs and cause the energy state to lose out on critical education, infrastructure, and healthcare funding. Biden would be "cutting off a major lifeline that Americans have relied on to survive during this time," she hassaid.But there's a problem with Cheney's forecast. The numbers she's relying on came from an analysis that is the brainchild of the oil and gas industry.The Western Energy Alliance--which represents 200 western oil and gas companies--proposed the $114,000 publicly-funded analysis to state officials, tried to provide matching dollars for it, and stayed involved throughout its development, according to public records obtained by Documented and shared with Floodlight and Wyoming Public Media.In February 2020, a Wyoming state senator, who is also the president of an oil company, proposed the spending. The Western Energy Alliance sought to help fund the study but was unable because the industry was in serious decline . It did, however, spend $8,000 publicizing the report, as was first reported by Politico.Records show Gov. Mark Gordon's office was aware of and never disclosed the group's deep involvement in the study.Now, the Western Energy Alliance isspending thousands more to amplify the warnings in an ad campaign against Biden's climate policies. The numbers have been cited dozens of times in local and national newspapers, including in the New York Times in a reference to Wyoming officials' projections.The data have become core to Republican messaging opposing Biden's climate plans even as critics suggest the study might exaggerate economic impacts by as much as 85%. The author even appeared at a meeting of the Congressional Western Caucus in February, alongside Cheney.While industry-funded research is not uncommon, transparency advocates say it is increasingly being used to produce conclusions favorable to oil and gas companies in order to shape public opinion.

U.S and China Engage, Tentatively, on Climate Change – WSJ —The U.S. and China are engaged in a confidence-building exercise that could show whether the world’s two largest economies can work together on shared priorities despite deep disagreements and a badly strained bilateral relationship. Washington and Beijing are to co-chair a G-20 study group focusing on climate-related financial risks. It is a cautious step in a low-stakes venue. Still, neither country is eager to take credit for even such a modest initiative, underscoring sensitivities on both sides about any outreach. Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellentold her G-20 counterparts the U.S. would co-chair the group. A day later, Chinese central bank governor Yi Gang said the bank was pleased to co-lead the group. Neither side mentioned the other in their announcements. “Both sides are inching closer to each other and trying to make climate a safe lane for communication,” said John Podesta, founder of the left-leaning Center for American Progress think tank in Washington. The U.S. views China as its major competitor. A new Biden administration strategy document labeled China the only rival potentially capable of combining economic, diplomatic, military and technological power “to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.”

Economic Growth is the Cause of Climate Change, Not the Solution to It - Through 2019, the last year for which data is available, greenhouse gas emissions and global GDP growth remained as highly correlated as they have been for the last half century. What this means is that despite the rhetorical back-and-forth over technological innovation and government policies as potential solutions to climate change, the role of economic production as its cause is unchanged from prior years. To date, the outsourcing of greenhouse gas emissions to China and India accounts for most or all of the alleged progress being claimed by rich nations. This relationship between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions is more than a statistical anomaly. It is evidence of the causal relationship between them. And because GDP can be stated in terms of income, responsibility for climate change is approximated through the distribution of income. Those with higher incomes are responsible for a greater quantity of climate change than those with lower incomes. This assignment of responsibility works at the level of nations and economic class. Rich nations are responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than poor. And the global rich bear more responsibility than the global poor. In a world where capital is both fungible and mobile, the framing of greenhouse gas emissions within national geographical boundaries— as the Paris Climate Accord and other environmental agreements do, substantively misrepresents the political economy that produces them. Additionally, while technological innovation is both welcomed and encouraged here, the declining rate of economic growth since the neoliberal epoch began explains the declining rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, bottom-up theorizing about the impact of green technologies isn’t yet showing up in this top-down data.

Equivalent of Covid emissions drop needed every two years – study  -Carbon dioxide emissions must fall by the equivalent of a global lockdown roughly every two years for the next decade for the world to keep within safe limits of global heating, research has shown.Lockdowns around the world led to an unprecedented fall in emissions of about 7% in 2020, or about 2.6bn tonnes of CO₂, but reductions of between 1bn and 2bn tonnes are needed every year of the next decade to have a good chance of holding temperature rises to within 1.5C or 2C of pre-industrial levels, as required by the Paris agreement.Research published on Wednesday shows that countries were beginning to slow their rates of greenhouse gas emissions before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, but not to the levels needed to avert climate breakdown. Since lockdowns were eased in many countries last year, there have been strong signs that emissions will rise again to above 2019 levels, severely damaging the prospects of fulfilling the Paris goals.  Corinne Le Quéré, lead author of the study, said the world stood at a crucial point as governments poured money into the global economy to cope with the impacts of the pandemic. “We need a cut in emissions of about the size of the fall [from the lockdowns] every two years, but by completely different methods,” she said.Governments must prioritise climate action in their efforts to recover from the pandemic, she said. “We have failed to understand in the past that we can’t have tackling climate change as a side issue. It can’t be about one law or policy, it has to be put at the heart of all policy,” she said. “Every strategy and every plan from every government must be consistent with tackling climate change.” The study joins other research showing that the drastic fall in greenhouse gas emissions associated with the pandemic will have little impact on long-term climate goals, and may be followed by a swift rebound unless countries take rapid action to direct their economies away from fossil fuels. “There is a real contradiction between what governments are saying they are doing to do [to generate a green recovery], and what they are doing,” said Le Quéré. “That is very worrisome.” “Emissions were lower in 2020 as fossil fuel infrastructure was used less, not because infrastructure was closed down,” he said. “When fossil fuel infrastructure is put into use again, there is a risk of a big rebound in emissions in 2021, as was seen in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009.”

 TV Climate Coverage Dropped 53% in 2020, Media Analysts Find -- Corporate broadcast TV nightly news and Sunday shows devoted just 112 minutes to climate change in 2020, the shortest duration since 2016, according to an analysis from Media Matters.  While last year saw the biggest-ever California wildfire, the most named storms in the Atlantic, the costliest thunderstorm in U.S. history, and a presidential race in which climate change played a central role, coverage of climate change dropped 53% from 2019 to 2020 across ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox News Sunday. Even when including network morning shows, which gave 267 minutes to climate coverage last year, the climate crisis accounted for just 0.4% of total corporate broadcast coverage. Across TV news, programs consistently failed to note the links between coronavirus and climate change, and broadcasts vastly overrepresented white men. In climate segments women accounted for less than a third of guests, while people of color accounted for just 8%, and only six of the 89 guests featured were women of color.As reported by Media Matters: Media coverage of climate solutions is important in getting the public to shake off the doom and gloom of climate change and take action in addressing it. As former New York Times climate reporter Kendra Pierre-Louis noted in a discussion about her new climate solutions podcast, How to Save a Planet:  "For the past 10 or 15 years, there has been a form of climate journalism that focuses on the problem to such a degree that it can be disempowering. People can feel like the scale of the problem is so large and there aren't any solutions.So we're trying to get people to understand that they can be part of the solution. They can plug into aspects of our society to move the needle on climate change."In that endeavor to inform the public on climate solutions and on the economic and societal benefits of getting our response to the climate crisis right, corporate broadcast TV news still has far to go.

Who's talking about climate change on TV? Mostly white men.- If you watched news about climate change on TV last year, chances are you saw a white man on-screen.According to an analysis published this week by Media Matters For America, a nonprofit media watchdog, people of color made up just 8 percent of guests interviewed or featured in the major broadcast networks’ climate coverage in 2020 — we’re looking at you, ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox Broadcasting Company. Women were also less likely to be in front of the camera, comprising 28 percent of guests.The total amount of time that these broadcast networks spent on the climate crisis was down 53 percent compared to 2019. Climate-related segments claimed 112 minutes of airtime over the course of the year, less than your average movie. That’s not because there weren’t worthy stories — wildfires blazed, the Arctic lost historic amounts of ice, and 2020 was tied for the warmest year on record — but likely because the pandemic consumed our lives. The study found that broadcast coverage rarely mentioned the connections between coronavirus and climate change, such as how both disasters disproportionately impact people of color and lower-income communities.The underwhelming representation of people of color isn’t new. 2020 marks the fourth consecutive year — as long as Media Matters has been tracking the numbers — that less than 10 percent of network television’s climate guests were people of color. Only six women of color were featured out of the total 89 guests the report identified.  “This lopsided representation flatly ignores the reality that, due to historical and current injustices, climate change disproportionately affects communities of color,” the report’s authors write.People of color are more likely to live in places vulnerable to climate change — where temperatures are hot, the air quality is worse, and there are fewer resourcesto cope with extreme weather. Women, too, are more likely to experience the devastating effects of climate change: A United Nations report estimated that 80 percent of those displaced by the crisis are women.

Biden administration moves forward on Vineyard Wind - THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION on Monday released its final environmental impact statement on the Vineyard Wind offshore wind project and indicated the analysis could gain final approval soon, paving the way for the project to begin construction. The four-volume statement said the final environment impact report “is not a decision document.” It said the statement will be published in the Federal Register shortly, allowing 30 days for review before the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management decides whether to approve Vineyard Wind’s construction and operations plan, modify it, or reject it. The statement also said the National Marine Fisheries Service and US Army Corps of Engineers will make decisions about the project using the analysis of impacts outlined in the final environmental impact statement. A press release issued by the US Department of the Interior suggested the project will likely be moving forward, with Deputy Assistant Secretary Laura Daniel Davis quoted as saying “the United States is poised to become a global clean energy leader.” Offshore wind advocates across the board hailed the announcement. Heather Zichal, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, issued a statement applauding the Biden administration for moving ahead with the final steps to approve the Vineyard Wind project. “By any measure, this is a breakthrough for offshore wind energy in the United States. Not even two months into a new Administration, years of delay have finally culminated in a thorough analysis that should soon put this infrastructure investment on its way to generating clean power for the region and creating good jobs at home,” she said.

Communities Air Concerns Over Offshore Wind Farms --Ocean City officials aren’t the only ones taking issue with a proposed offshore wind energy farm. In Ocean City, members of the community and elected officials are raising objections to Danish energy company Orsted’s plans for a wind farm 15 miles off the South Jersey coast from Atlantic City to Cape May. Also, elected officials and representatives of the fishing industry in Long Beach Island are voicing similar concerns over another wind farm proposed by Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind about 10 miles off Barnegat Light. Ocean City and Long Beach Island, in Ocean County, share in their concerns over what the wind farms could do. Both Orsted and Atlantic Shores have hosted town hall meetings in-person and virtually amid the pandemic, but questions continue to swirl from the public about the “what ifs.” The companies promote their projects as providing clean, renewable energy that could power homes, bring jobs to the area and be good for the environment. But officials from Ocean City and Ship Bottom on Long Beach Island, as well as those in the fishing industry, say more research needs to be done before the first pilings go into the ocean waters to install giant turbines. Ship Bottom Mayor William Huelsenbeck does not want to see his community, where he has served as mayor since 1999, negatively affected by a wind farm, he said in an interview Monday. “There are too many unanswered questions and the answers we do get just don’t make the project conducive to a community where the allure is a beach and the ocean,”

Ohio bills could thwart solar and wind development --Ohio lawmakers held second hearings this week on twin bills to erect more roadblocks to solar and wind energy in the state. Critics say the bills would infringe on individuals’ property rights, discourage new business investments in the state and make it nearly impossible to finance substantial renewable energy development.Senate Bill 52 and House Bill 118 expand on themes from a failed 2019 bill that would have let 8% of voters in an area demand a referendum after Ohio Power Siting Board approval of wind farm projects, thus delaying or effectively cancelling the projects.“It’s HB 401 all over again, but now solar is included,” said Neil Waggoner, Ohio representative for the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign. “It’s another attempt to really slow down or stop the investment in and transition to renewable energy in the state.”The new bills would apply to solar and wind farms but not nuclear power plants or any kind of fossil fuel projects. Developers would have to give 30 days’ prior notice to local governments before filing with the power siting board for any new wind or solar project. The bills also would apply to most modifications, such as changes to spacing or height.Local government resolutions can then reject a public referendum, require one, or allow 8% of people who voted in the last governor’s election to seek a referendum. Any modification during the power siting board process could trigger the process all over again. And any referendum outcomes would not be known until well after any siting board certification.Both bills also would expand property line setbacks. The existing setbacks for wind farm turbines are already triple what they were before a last-minute budget bill amendment in 2014. New setbacks would basically be an evacuation zone in the unlikely event that a turbine caught fire. By comparison, similar provisions don’t apply to natural gas operations, which have required evacuations. “The bill singles out wind and solar and subjects them to levels of duplicative regulations that are not applied to other energy sources,”  That discriminatory application “shows that it is the intent to slow the development of wind and solar in the state.”

Indiana General Assembly wind, solar bills called overreach -The roads in Henry County, Indiana, were dotted with signs protesting projects locals say will infringe on their rights and their quality of life: wind turbines. The county is one of 34 around the state with ordinances that restrict wind and solar projects, or prohibit their construction altogether. Residents in these counties fear the projects, if too close to their homes, will tank property values as well as inconvenience the lives of those who live near them. But as coal plants shut down and state energy needs increase, Indiana must expand renewable resources to fill the gap, experts say.And county governments are standing in the way. State lawmakers are pushing for a bill that would create consistent statewide standards for how close wind and solar projects can be located to other properties. This would overrule the county ordinances that have tried to stop them, including Hamilton and Hendricks counties, which have restrictive ordinances.The state is missing out on millions of dollars in potential income, according to bill proponents, because piecemeal standards are stopping renewable companies from investing in Indiana. In some cases, companies have fronted hefty costs for wind projects just for county governments to block them from happening.Indiana stands out in this way when it comes to wind and solar siting, experts say. Sean Brady, regional policy manager for renewable advocacy group the Clean Grid Alliance, said while some other states may also have inconsistent standards, it’s not to the extent you see in Indiana. “Right now,” Brady said, “local government has said that Indiana is closed for business for renewables.”

Florida lawmakers advance bills to halt local clean energy efforts— Florida’s GOP-led Legislature took the first steps Tuesday to reach its goal of putting a stop to efforts by cities and counties to strengthen options for energy alternatives in the age of climate change.The Senate Regulated Industries Committee gave preliminary approval to SB 856 that would preempt prevent local governments from blocking or restricting construction of “energy infrastructure” related to such things as production and distribution of electricity, natural gas and petroleum products. The committee also approved SB 1128 that would prevent local governments from banning natural gas as an energy source in new construction.House sponsor of the infrastructure preemption bill, Rep. Tom Fabricio, a Miramar Republican, said the idea originated after Tampa City Councilman Joe Citro proposed a non-binding resolution to set a goal for the city to reach 100 percent renewable energy citywide by 2030. He withdrew his proposal and it has not returned, but the industries have used the threat of it to generate support for the legislation.If passed, environmentalists say the measures would put the state’s energy future into the hands of the Florida Legislature, whose members — often from both parties — have been heavily influenced by the state’s utility monopolies through political contributions and other favors.The measure, by Sen. Travis Hutson, R-St. Augustine, and another bill that attempts to limit local rules relating to solar installations, SB 1008,have alarmed Florida’s clean energy advocates and environmentalists.“In a shocking power grab, Florida’s monopoly utilities and their allies in the state legislature are trying to strip local authority over all aspects of how we power our lives,’' said Aliki Moncrief, executive director, Florida Conservation Voters.  “This is an appallingly bad bill,’' said David Cullen, lobbyist for the Sierra Club of Florida. “It would destroy everything.” He urged the Senate committee to reject the bill, but they supported it along party lines.“Transition means there has to be change,’' Cullen said. “All this bill does is to prevent localities from helping to make that change to moving to clean renewable energy.”

Local renewable fights threaten 100% clean power — analysts -- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 -- More than 100 cities, counties and states around the country have enacted ordinances restricting renewable energy projects, according to a new report.

Lori Barg: Vermont’s 1,200 unpowered dams could power electric micro-grids - Vwrmont’s undeveloped hydroelectric resources are an alternative to enable Vermont to develop its resources in an environmentally sound way instead of greenwashed power from Hydro-Quebec that has flooded an area equivalent to more than half the size of the state of Vermont.I am an owner of small hydroelectric plants, and patented a modular hydro system to enable affordable development of small, environmentally sound hydro that could be used at some of Vermont’s 1,200 unpowered dams to promote local economies, grid resilience and form the backbone for renewable micro-grids. Fortunately we have options. David Budbill once wrote he lived in Judevine, a town of 6 billion souls, 600 of them human. Imagine a system where Vermonters live within our resources and don’t call it “green” to flood and drown and murder billions of souls. Vermont is a bit larger than 6 million acres. In order to get “green” hydro, Vermonters have accepted Hydro-Quebec’s flooding an area (3.88 million acres) equivalent to over half the state of Vermont, displacing native people, caribou, mammals and fish. Imagine flooding more than half of the land in Vermont. Unimaginable.  Vermont’s undeveloped hydroelectric resources are substantial. Vermonters like hydro. Vermont was built on hydro. Vermont’s villages are along rivers because hydro powered Vermont. Histories like Zadock Thompson’s (1796-1856) detail the importance of hydro to the development of Vermont.

Lawmakers unveil measure to give USPS $6B for electric vehicles   House Democrats have introduced a proposal to give the United States Postal Service billions in order to equip the department with tens of thousands of electric delivery vehicles.The bill would allocate $6 Billion in funding to USPS and require at least 75 percent of a new fleet be electric or zero-emission vehicles, according to Reuters.“We welcome and are interested in any support from Congress that advances the goal of a Postal Service vehicle fleet with zero emissions, and the necessary infrastructure required to operate it,” the USPS said in a statement to the outlet on Monday. “With the right level of support, the majority of the Postal Service’s fleet can be electric by the end of the decade.” The bill is sponsored by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and has support from Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY). President Joe Biden earlier this year announced a promise to replace vehicles owned by the federal government with U.S.-made electric vehicles. “The federal government also owns an enormous fleet of vehicles which we're going to replace with clean, electric vehicles made right here in America by American workers,” Biden said in January. The bill would mandate at least half of medium/heavy-duty vehicle purchases be electric or zero-emission through 2029, Reuters reported, and all new Postal Service vehicles to be zero-emission by 2040.

Ditch diesel for electric school buses? NJ advocates say that would pay off in the long run --As the state tries to electrify its transportation sector, one focus has been on electric school buses. But there hasn’t been much success largely because of the larger upfront costs of purchasing electric vehicles instead of diesel buses. Clean-energy advocates contend, however, that school districts could offset those costs by having electric vehicles supply power, stored in the vehicles’ batteries, back to the regional electricity grid when they are not transporting students to and from school.If so, that could speed up the rollout of electric school buses in New Jersey, according to environmental groups who are urging school districts to stop purchasing diesel buses and transition to all-electric buses by 2030 in a new report.“While electric buses can save and even earn money for schools over the lifespan of the bus, the initial price tag often presents a hurdle for cash-strapped districts,’’ said Hayley Berliner, a clean-energy associate for Environment New Jersey’s Research. & Policy C enter.The report, by Environment New Jersey and the New Jersey Public Interest Research Group’s Law and Policy Center, suggests school districts could recover those upfront costs and more, by using idle school buses to send stored energy back to the grid at times of peak demand, and get paid for that. Those times occur typically when buses are finished delivering students home in late afternoon and early evening.

New US vehicles must be electric by 2030 to meet climate goals – report --The US should ensure almost all new cars and light vehicles sold are electric by the end of this decade, and stop using fossil fuels for power generation by 2035, to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement, a new analysis has found.Joe Biden, the US president, should aim for a national target of cutting emissions by about 60% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, for the world to have a good chance of holding global temperature rises within 1.5C of pre-industrial levels, according to Climate Action Tracker (CAT).Such a target would be substantially tougher than the halving of emissions by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, that many US civil society groups have espoused.Biden’s top advisers are working on a national plan for emissions cuts, called anationally determined contribution, or NDC – a requirement of the Paris agreement. John Kerry, Biden’s climate chief, is expected to unveil the plan at aUS-led climate summit on 22 April.CAT analyses countries’ commitments against the Paris goals of holding global temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspiration of limiting the rise to 1.5C. The latest analysis, published on Thursday, shows that the US as the world’s second biggest emitter, after China, must cut emissions by between 57% and 63% to remain within the lower limit.Biden has plans to ensure the US fully decarbonises power generation in the next 15 years, which CAT said was consistent with meeting the goals of the Paris agreement, and to move towards electric vehicles, though he has not set a firm timeline for the latter.The CAT analysis found nationwide sales of nearly all new light-duty vehicles must be electric by 2030, and that Biden should aim for cuts of 60% in emissions from residential buildings and 70% in emissions from commercial buildings, which would be tougher than Biden’s current aims of halving emissions from buildings by 2030.Emissions cuts of 60% for the US would be a stretch, but should be achievable, according to Niklas Höhne of the NewClimate Institute, one of the two organisations behind Climate Action Tracker. “If you take climate change seriously, this is what [Biden] must do,” he said. “It is a matter of political will.” He pointed to the rapid progress made in recent years on electric vehicles, and the plunging price of renewable energy. “Things are possible now that we couldn’t have imagined a few years ago,” he said. “That’s why it’s possible to set visionary targets even if you don’t know how to meet the last five or 10% [of the emissions cuts needed].”Countries are already spending trillions on rescuing their economies from the Covid-19 pandemic. “Now is the moment, when a lot of money is being spent, to ensure it is being spent not just to support the economy but to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.

GM says U.S. should extend consumer, investment tax credits to boost electric vehicles (Reuters) - General Motors President Mark Reuss said Thursday the U.S. government should extend new investment tax credits for electric vehicle manufacturing and supply chains and expand consumer incentives to electric vehicle purchases, including for used vehicles. In a LinkedIn post, Reuss also called on U.S. policymakers to invest “in infrastructure that includes fast-charging stations, particularly in urban areas and along highway corridors.” In January, GM said it was setting a dramatic goal to sell all its new cars, SUVs and light pickup trucks with zero tailpipe emissions by 2035, a dramatic shift by the largest U.S. automaker away from gasoline and diesel engines. “2021 is the tipping point toward EVs,” Reuss said Thursday in his post. Reuss also called again for the $7,500-EV tax credit to be extended to more vehicles. GM hit the 200,000 cumulative EV vehicle sales threshold in late 2018 and the credit fully expired for all GM EV buyers in April 2020. GM sold 2.55 million vehicles in the United States last year, but only about 20,000 were EVs, including the Chevy Bolt hatchback. It said in November it was investing $27 billion in electric and autonomous vehicles over the next five years, up from $20 billion planned before the coronavirus pandemic. Total U.S. EV sales in 2020 fell to 296,000, down from 331,000 in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts, accounting for 2% of total U.S. vehicle sales. President Joe Biden has called for 500,000 new charging stations to speed electric vehicle adoption and backs expanding tax credits for consumers and for retool factories to build EVs and components. During a Washington Post forum Thursday, Reuss said the company was focused on EVs. “We definitely bet the future on battery electric vehicles - not plug-in hybrid electric vehicles,” Reuss said. “We’re going all the way. We’re going as fast as we can. That’s the bet we have.”

 Will the Race for Electric Vehicles Endanger the Earth’s Most Sensitive Ecosystem? -The growing demand for electric vehicles is good news for limiting climate emissions from the transportation sector, but EVs still come with environmental costs. Of particular concern is the materials needed to make the ever-important batteries, some of which are already projected to be in short supply."Climate change is our greatest and most pressing challenge, but there are some perilous pathways to be aware of as we build out the infrastructure that gets us to a new low-carbon paradigm," says Douglas McCauley, a professor and director of the Benioff Ocean Initiative at the University of California Santa Barbara.One of those perilous pathways, he says, is mining the seafloor to extract minerals like cobalt and nickel that are widely used for EV batteries. Extraction of these materials has thus far been limited to land, but international regulations for mining the deep seabed far offshore are in development."There's alignment on the need to go as fast as we can with low-carbon infrastructure to beat climate change and electrification will play a big part in that," he says. "But the idea that we need to mine the oceans in order to do that is, I think, a very false dichotomy." Tesla may have made owning an EV cool, but a slew of other companies now hope to make it commonplace. The latest is Volvo, which announced at the beginning of March that it will make only electric cars by 2030. This follows news that Jaguar will be all-electric in 2025 and Volkswagen after 2026. General Motors says it's aiming to make its cars and light trucks electric by 2035, while Ford is doubling its investments in EVs and plans to sell only electric cars in Europe by 2030. A 2019 study by the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney found that demand for lithium could exceed supply by next year, which would drive up prices and interest in more lithium mining. Demand for cobalt and nickel, also key battery components, will exceed production in less than a decade.

Opinion: TCI a good investment in Connecticut's future --The Transportation and Climate Initiative Program, or TCI, is a new, regional market-based program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation and generate proceeds to reinvest in clean transportation options and infrastructure. On Dec. 21, 2020, the governors of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the mayor of Washington, D.C., signed a bipartisan memorandum of understanding agreeing to pursue the implementation of the program. TCI will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, which is the largest source of those emissions in the state and the region. TCI is good for the climate, good for the economy and good for the health of Connecticut’s residents — particularly our most vulnerable. That’s why I support TCI. Of course, climate deniers and politically disingenuous critics have already started a fearmongering campaign falsely claiming the program will increase gas prices by 17, 38 or even 61 cents per gallon. This is fake news. I prefer to deal with facts, so here are a few: TCI is projected to increase gas prices by 5 cents per gallon in 2023. This is not a tax, but an estimate of the costs that may passed along to consumers as energy wholesalers raise prices in response to limited allowances. TCI includes consumer protection features, including a cost containment mechanism, to prevent gas prices from increasing above 9 cents per gallon in 2023. Emissions allowance auctions will not take place prior to 2023, therefore TCI is not expected to cause increased gas prices until the program starts that year.

Unsafe at Any Speed: Don’t Park Your Kia Sportage or Cadenza in the Garage, or Near Your House, for That Matter -- Kia seems to have plumbed a new low in the auto safety race to the bottom when it announced a recall of nearly 380,000 Sportage and Cadeniza models, due to fire risk.  Until you get the vehicle fixed, it is unsafe at any speed. That includes parked in the garage or stashed close to any flammable structures. Jalopnik provides details about the recall: Kia is recalling many 2017-19 Cadenza sedans and 2017-21 Sportage crossovers, the AP reports. Owners can enter their car’s VIN into NHTSA’s website to see if their vehicle is affected. According to NHTSA, the recall affects a potential of 379,931 vehicles. Here are the details, from NHTSA: Kia Motors America (Kia) is recalling certain 2017-2021 Sportage and Cadenza vehicles. The electrical circuit in the Hydraulic Electronic Control Unit (HECU) may short-circuit, which can cause a fire in the engine compartment. Kia will notify owners, and dealers will replace certain fuses in the electrical junction box. Vehicles equipped with an electronic parking brake (EPB) will also receive a HECU software update. Repairs will be performed free of charge.Owners are advised to park outside and away from structures as a precaution until the recall repair is complete. The recall is expected to begin April 30, 2021. Owners may contact Kia customer service at 1-800-333-4542. Kia’s number for this recall is SC206. For interested readers, I include a link to recall report issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.  I wondered whether an owner would get any warning that her/his vehicle was about to catch fire? The answer, via AP: Owners could see tire pressure, anti-lock brake or other warning lights on their dashboard before the problem happens. They also might smell a burning or melting odor. One other warning sign that AP failed to mention that’s included in the original NHTSA report: smoke from the engine compartment. Not only won’t Kia send out any mobile units to fix your car, but the company is taking its sweet time to notify owners of the problem, according to AP: Owners will be notified starting April 30. Dealers will replace fuses in the electrical junction box to fix the problem

 US data- EIA says ethanol production rises again, stocks continue to fall -US ethanol production averaged 938,000 b/d in the week ended March 5, 89,000 b/d higher on the week but 85,000 b/d lower year on year, Energy Information Administration data showed March 10. The increase was the second consecutive rise in production since a massive cold weather system pounded much of the US. Ethanol producers cut production to take advantage of rising natural gas prices before the weather. Some were later hampered by a lack of electricity during the severe weather. US ethanol stocks dropped by 355,000 barrels to 22.070 million barrels. West Coast inventories saw the biggest decrease, falling by 257,000 barrels, as the EIA reported no imports on the week. Ethanol imports typically flow into California, as imported sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil generates more value from carbon credits under the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Gulf Coast stocks shed 330,000 barrels. The Gulf Coast is the most common origin for exports but also hosts large consumption hubs. Stocks in the East Coast region, however, gained 144,000 barrels. The Midwest region, home to most of the ethanol plants in the US and a significant trading hub, saw stocks rise by 108,000. The four-week rolling average of the refiner and blender net ethanol input rose by 9,000 b/d to 787,000 b/d, while the weekly average increased by 4,000 to 818,000 b/d. The four-week rolling average of gasoline demand, represented by product supplied, grew by 217,000 b/d to 8.122 million b/d. The weekly average increased by 578,000 b/d to 8.726 million b/d. The four-week rolling average of the ethanol blending rate, calculated by dividing the refiner and blender ethanol input by gasoline demand, fell to 9.69% from 9.84%.

Senators call on USDA to get aid to biofuels producers “as soon as possible” -- Two U.S. Senators are urging the Biden administration to provide targeted relief to biofuels producers as quickly as possible. Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley says he and Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar have sent a letter to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack encouraging USDA to assist ethanol and biodiesel plants while the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program is under review. “It should be noted that money from the December virus relief bill, which totaled $13 billion, has not yet been spent.” During his weekly call with ag reporters Monday, Grassley pointed out he and other lawmakers were successful in giving USDA discretionary authority late last year. “We’re now a full week into March and Secretary Vilsack has been in office for two weeks (so) the money that Congress has already provided should be distributed to producers for the virus disruptions as soon as possible.” The omnibus appropriations and coronavirus relief package that passed in December explicitly identifies renewable fuel producers as entities eligible to receive COVID-19 emergency aid unlike the CARES Act.

   Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Rule $700 Billion Hydrogen Market –-  Sun-scorched expanses and steady Red Sea breezes make the northwest tip of Saudi Arabia prime real estate for what the kingdom hopes will become a global hub for green hydrogen.   As governments and industries seek less-polluting alternatives to hydrocarbons, the world’s biggest crude exporter doesn’t want to cede the burgeoning hydrogen business to China, Europe or Australia and lose a potentially massive source of income. So it’s building a $5 billion plant powered entirely by sun and wind that will be among the world’s biggest green hydrogen makers when it opens in the planned megacity of Neom in 2025. The task of turning a patch of desert the size of Belgium into a metropolis powered by renewable energy falls to Peter Terium, the former chief executive officer of RWE AG, Germany’s biggest utility,  “There’s nothing I’ve ever seen or heard of this dimension or challenge,” Terium said. “I’ve been spending the last two years wrapping my mind around ‘from scratch,’ and now we’re very much in execution mode.”  Huge obstacles remain to the gas becoming a major part of the energy transition, and skeptics point to Saudi Arabia’s weak track record so far capitalizing on what should be a competitive edge in the renewables business, especially solar, where there are many plans but few operational projects.But countries are jostling for position in a future global market, and hydrogen experts list the kingdom as one to watch.  The U.K. is hosting 10 projects to heat buildings with the gas, China is deploying fuel-cell buses and commercial vehicles, and Japan is planning to use the gas in steelmaking. U.S. presidential climate envoy John Kerry urged the domestic oil and gas industry to embrace hydrogen’s “huge opportunities.” That should mean plenty of potential customers for the plant called Helios Green Fuels. Saudi Arabia issetting its sights on becoming the world’s largest supplier of hydrogen — a market that BloombergNEF estimates could be worth as much as $700 billion by 2050.

Waste Watch: Europeans Get Right to Repair for Some Consumer Electrical Goods, While Jean Deere Reneges on Promise to U.S. Farmers to Make Diagnostic Software Freely Available --by Jerri-lynn Scofield ---New right to repair rules for some consumer electrical goods, including hairdryers, refrigerators, television displays, and washing machines, came into effect in the 27-nation EU on Monday, mandating that products be repairable for ten years.Tech Republic reported that the the European Parliament voted to approve the policy in November 2020.Each year, Europeans produce about 35 kilos of electrical waste per person, about half of which comes from household appliances, of which only 40% is recycled, according to Tech Explore. The EU new right to repair rules aim to reduce that waste.As per Tech Explore:Modern appliances are often glued or riveted together, he said. “If you need specialist tools or have to break open the device, then you can’t repair it.”Lack of spare parts is another problem, campaigners say. Sometimes a single broken tooth on a tiny plastic sprocket can throw a proverbial wrench in the works.“People want to repair their appliances,” Affelt said. “When you tell them that there are no spare parts for a device that’s only a couple of years old then they are obviously really frustrated by that.”  Going forward, manufacturers serving the  EU market will need to supply spare parts for a minimum of ten years. The rules allow manufacturers to supply some parts to professional repair companies only – rather than directly to consumers – to ensure they are installed correctly. But providing explicitly for third party repair services to get access to parts reduces the stranglehold manufactures currently have on the pricing and availability of repair.  When will USians see similar right to repair provisions enacted? ( Alas, not imminently. Although many states have teed up right to repair legislation, all U.S. states – including California, Massachusetts, and New York –   have yet to enact any state legislation, In fact, the most visible recent right to repair move was for a market leader to renege on a prior commitment. In 2018, John Deere and other agricultural equipment manufacturers loudly promised to make right to repair information and diagnostic software available for its tractors and other sophisticated farm equipment, so as to forestall right to repair legislation then pending in several states. According to a February 19, 2021 press release issued by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group (U.S. PIRG): For years, farmers have been calling for access to the tools needed to repair modern tractors, combines and other farm equipment. Their efforts resulted in dozens of Right to Repair bills — legislation that would require manufacturers to give access to their repair materials to customers and independent repair shops.But 7 weeks into 2021, these tools are not for sale on JohnDeere.com, and we’d heard reports from farmers across the country their local dealers didn’t have those promised tools available.

Two railway accidents in Southern California kill worker and spill chemical waste - A Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) Railway employee on March 3 was crushed to death between two trains at the company’s transit hub located near the border of La Mirada and Buena Park in Southern California.According to the Orange County Fire Authority, rescue workers found the victim mangled in the rail yard shortly after midnight and declared him dead at the scene. While the worker’s identity has not been released as of the time of this writing, it was reported that he was in his 40s. The National Transportation Safety Board issued a statement on Twitter later that morning announcing that three investigators were expected to arrive on the scene shortly. In an unrelated incident about 12 hours later, a BNSF freight train derailed near the Mojave Desert community of Ludlow, California, roughly 120 miles away from the earlier incident. The train was traveling from Kansas City to Barstow with mixed freight when 44 cars derailed and a tank car carrying denatured alcohol leaked several thousand gallons of the highly flammable liquid, which is often used as a solvent and camping stove fuel. According to the US Department of Transportation’s Federal Railroad Administration, there were 21,061 accidents involving BNSF between 1996—when BNSF was established by the merging of the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway and Burlington Northern Railroad—and 2020. Over the last 25 years, BNSF has been involved in 3,102 fatalities, including 82 employee-on-duty deaths, and 25,031 other injuries, involving a staggering 15,903 employees. When all other American rail companies are included, the total number of accidents jumps to 126,420 between 1996 and 2020, with 21,148 fatalities and 236,329 injuries, including 492 employee deaths and 136,464 employee injuries. The number of accidents, fatalities, and injuries in the US compared to the total amount of rail miles traveled exceeds those of most other highly industrialized nations. While there undoubtedly are several factors that have led to this carnage, a determining cause has been the deregulation of the rail industry coupled with a lack of extensive rail modernization and investment in safety protocols.

Climate change will have 'far-reaching' impacts on electric grid, watchdog says -Climate change will have "far-reaching" impacts on the electric grid that could cost billions of dollars, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO). The report, released Wednesday by Sen.Tom Carper (D-Del.), comes after power outages related to a winter storm in Texas last month brought renewed attention to the issue. The GAO reviewed reports to determine that climate change, which has been linked to extreme weather events, is expected to impact “all aspects” of the electricity grid including electricity generation, transmission and distribution to users. It noted that the type and extent of impacts will depend on location, types of energy sources used and the grid infrastructure’s condition. “For example, a region may see more extreme rainfall combined with coastal flooding, or extreme heat coupled with drought. However, warmer temperatures and more heat waves could affect all regions in the United States and could decrease the efficiency of electricity generation, transmission and distribution systems,” the report said. The report said that storms, extreme heat and changes in availability of resources like water can impact the ability for power to be generated; wildfires can threaten transmission infrastructure, and heat can reduce transmission capacity; and heat can damage power transformers that are important for electricity distribution. It also said that these impacts could cost billions of dollars, including costs of power outages to utility customers and costs from storm damages. GAO said that power outages can “disproportionately” impact vulnerable groups that need continued electricity service for certain health conditions. It further noted that low-income people often have trouble paying for higher energy costs or measures to mitigate outages. The report said that the Energy Department can take additional actions like sharing tools and information to help plan for climate change and provide incentives for resiliency actions. It said that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission can update reliability standards to address climate change and consider climate risks when deciding whether to authorize infrastructure projects.

Ten years ago, 241 Texas power plants couldn’t take the cold. Dozens of them failed again this year. --  The corporate and municipal owners of more than 30 power-generation plants in Texas appear to have failed to adequately heed a decade of warnings to better prepare for deadly winter weather, contributing to their malfunctions or shutdowns during last month’s historic winter freeze that led to statewide power outages and a humanitarian crisis.  Facilities owned by Fortune 500 energy giants NRG, Calpine Corporation and Vistra Corporation, all headquartered in Texas, and the Chicago-based Exelon, experienced shutdowns during last month’s winter storm as well as during the state’s last historic cold snap a decade ago, according to a review by The Washington Post.  In testimony to state lawmakers, documents for shareholders and statements to The Post, the companies have said that last month’s problems occurred at least in part due to a failure to properly winterize equipment — in other words, to implement certain upgrades designed to protect power infrastructure from the cold. The same issue contributed to their shutdowns in 2011. “The entire energy sector failed Texas. We know we can do better, and we must do better to make sure that this never happens again,” said Mauricio Gutierrez, chief executive of NRG, while testifying before Texas lawmakers last week. “We did suffer our share of unit problems. … For that reason, we own it. We did not perform as well as I would have hoped.”  Publicly owned power generators Austin Energy and CPS Energy, which provide electricity to San Antonio, also experienced problems during both storms, according to data provided by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), a nonprofit that operates Texas’s power grid and energy trading market. Wind energy providers also had severe problems, probably because of the icing of the blades on turbines, officials have said. The 2011 blackouts, which affected more than 4 million power customers in the state, prompted multiple investigations and calls for reform. A law passed that same year required power generators to submit winterization plans each year to the agency that regulates them, called the Public Utility Commission of Texas. The commission also tripled the cap on the price of wholesale power, hoping generators would have an incentive to prepare for another cold snap in order to make extra money and to avoid losing more. It wasn’t enough to prevent a far bigger disaster a decade later, when temperatures dipped far lower and for much longer. Though exact figures on the number of people left in the dark are not yet available, state officials have said the power outages last month were five times more severe than in 2011.

Editorial: Texans stuck with the bill for deregulated market failures - They overpaid for electricity in Texas’ deregulated market — to the tune of $28 billion since 2004, according to the Wall Street Journal. They suffered last month through one of the worst blackouts in U.S. history, shivering for days in subfreezing temperatures, some of them succumbing to hypothermia or deadly fires in their own homes. And while many customers won’t see immediate spikes in their bills after the near-collapse of the power grid, they will likely pay more in the long run to bail out the faltering industry — the ultimate in adding insult to injury.Just this week, an independent monitor found the agency running the state’s power grid overcharged electricity providers an astounding $16 billion during last month’s storm. Reversing the charges, of course, would be the right thing to do. Instead, the Public Utility Commission on Friday let the overcharges stand, blaming the complexity of the problem for their inability to fix it. “It's just nearly impossible to unscramble this sort of egg,” PUC chairman Arthur D’Andrea said.And why bother? The state can simply make Texans eat the cost.The deregulation of Texas’ electricity market two decades ago, which turned the state’s power grid into an auctioneer’s playground, has proven to be an obscenely expensive failure. As devastating as last month's power outage was — knocking out power to 4 million households and disrupting clean drinking water to roughly half the state for days — it could have been worse. Texas came within 4 minutes and 37 seconds of a total collapse of the power grid that could have left the entire state in the dark for weeks, if not months.Now the heads are rolling at the utility regulatory agencies, and industry leaders are parceling out blame at legislative hearings. But at the end of the day, it’s Texans who are left paying for the gambles and shortcuts our leaders took with the state’s power supply.  It’s you, the utility customer, left holding the bag. Much of the discussion since last month’s power outage has focused on weather-proofing natural gas pumping stations, gas pipelines and power plants of all sorts to make sure the energy keeps flowing when frigid Texans need it the most. But the failures laid bare by the storm go beyond winterization. Gov. Greg Abbott may not want to discuss it — he was busy this week dismantling COVID-19 safety rules and railing against cancel culture — but last month's storm also struck at the very pillars of Texas' deregulated energy market. Vistra Corp., one of the state's largest energy producers, expects to take a $900 million to $1.3 billion hit. During the week of the February storm, senior vice president Bill Quinn told lawmakers, Vistra spent twice what it would normally spend in one year on natural gas. Meanwhile, the Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, the state’s largest generation and transmission cooperative serving 1.5 million customers, filed for bankruptcy protection. Experts expect more bankruptcies and consolidations to come — further shrinking the competitive field that was supposed to bring savings to customers in the deregulated market.Pardon us, but where are the savings Texas customers were promisedwhen this deregulation experiment began?

Deregulation Aimed to Lower Home-Power Bills. For Many, It Didn’t. – WSJ --Twenty years ago, a new breed of energy companies promised consumers that deregulation of the electricity industry would cut their power bills. The opposite happened. U.S. consumers who signed up with retail energy companies that emerged from deregulation paid $19.2 billion more than they would have if they’d stuck with incumbent utilities from 2010 through 2019, a Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data found. Retail energy companies buy electricity from generators—power-plant operators, wind farms, solar-power firms—and sell it to consumers, usually over the local utilities’ wires. Giving consumers a choice between their old utilities and new rivals, the argument for deregulation went, would create competitive pricing. But in nearly every state, they have charged more than their incumbent utilities in each of the five years from 2015 through 2019, the Journal analysis found. The Journal’s analysis of power prices in 13 states and the District of Columbia excluded other states where retail companies supplied less than 1% of residential electricity in 2019. Consumers on retail plans paid $1.9 billion extra in Pennsylvania and $1.7 billion in New York during the 10-year period examined by the Journal. In 2019, consumers paid $3.1 billion more in D.C. and the 13 states together, the biggest single-year difference ever over what they would have paid their utilities. On average across D.C. and the states, retail electricity cost 14% more than utility power in 2019, an all-time high. In Texas, where retail-electricity deregulation has gone furthest, residential consumers who signed up with retailers paid $12.6 billion more in the 10 years through 2019 than if they had paid utilities’ rates, according to the Journal’s analysis.Texas also deregulated electricity generation—the production of electricity by power plants—and allows the wholesale-market price that power plants charge to go as high as $9,000 a megawatt-hour in times of scarcity, more than 400 times the 2020 average price of $21.18.Prices hit that cap on five days during the February deep freeze, and some retail customers who had opted for variable-rate plans were immediately hit with thousands of dollars of charges. Retail power providers say their ability to buy and sell power at the best prices allows them to get cheaper energy and curbs the utilities’ monopoly power. They also say competitive markets for electricity can spark innovation in the power packages they provide, including the option to purchase plans that include clean-energy supply, giving consumers more choices.Electricity deregulation worked for business. Federal data show it led to substantial savings for commercial and industrial power customers, whose large-scale electricity use gives them the incentive to shop around and seek expert guidance.Regulated utilities, while cheaper for consumers, have struggled in many states with issues around reliability and maintenance. Consumers who are paying more for power through retail electricity suppliers still rely on the same power grid and usually the same power plants that customers of the regulated utility use.

New wind power plant under construction in Throckmorton County -  Throckmorton County is rapidly becoming site of a new wind farm. Enel Green Power, an Italy-based company, started construction on the Azure Sky wind  and storage project.The company says the project will create over 350 temporary construction jobs and 18 to 20 permanent full-time positions when the 79 big turbines are operating in the first half of 2022.Enel said the wind farm will generate more than over $57 million in tax revenue and over $74 million in new income for landowners over its lifespan. "Azure Sky Wind will provide a substantial economic boost to Throckmorton County," the company said in a news release.The wind farm will also have one of the world’s largest batteries to store electricity, the company's third hybrid project in Texas that integrates a renewable energy source with utility-scale battery storage. Enel said the site will generate electricity equivalent to the needs of more than 118,000 households.“Texas has always been an energy leader, and now Throckmorton County will be home to an innovative plant that combines the renewable power of wind with the flexibility of battery storage,” according to Georgios Papadimitriou, head of Enel Green Power in the U.S. and Canada.Enel will sell a portion of the electricity delivered to the grid to Kellogg Company -- the cereal maker. Kellogg is trying to achieve more than 50 percent renewable energy in its operations.The company operates 59 plants with a managed capacity of over 6.6 GW powered by renewable wind, geothermal and solar energy.

Tesla Is Building a Giant Battery in Texas to Back up Grid - Almost a decade after moving into the electric vehicle industry, Elon Musk's Tesla is supersizing its plans to bring its battery technology into the power storage game.Gambit Energy Storage LLC, a Tesla subsidiary, is building a 100 megawatt energy storage project in Arlington, Texas, outside of Houston. The giant battery will plug into the Texas power grid, providing backup to a system that last month suffered a devastating failure when a severe winter storm knocked generation offline at the same time as demand soared.Tesla introduced its Powerwall home batteries in 2016; the Gambit battery would store enough energy to power 20,000 homes during summer peak hours, and is expected to be operational on June 1st. Blackouts are becoming increasingly common as climate change exposes the energy grid's vulnerability to climate change, and battery-supported microgrids are increasingly seen as a critical backup for lifesaving systems.As reported by NPR: Like falling dominos, infrastructure around Texas, dependent on electricity, began failing in the extreme cold. In Austin, the Ullrich Water Treatment Plant shut down due to an electrical failure. That, combined with low water pressure from broken pipes, meant residents had to boil their water.Blackouts are becoming increasingly common as extreme weather causes electricity demand to skyrocket, while simultaneously damaging the aging electric grid. Climate change-driven disasters, like more intense storms and hurricanes, only increase that risk. So, some communities are looking for new ways to ensure that vulnerable people and infrastructure can withstand power outages. They're installing solar panels and large batteries to create tiny "microgrids" that continue working when the larger grid goes dark.Some are being sited at crucial facilities, like water treatment plants, hospitals and emergency response centers. Smaller battery systems also aid people who rely on life-saving medical equipment at home. While electric utilities traditionally invest in keeping up the electric grid, disaster experts say they need to also explore newer solutions, adapted to extreme weather, for when the grid falters and can't be repaired fast.

Dan Patrick, public utility commissioner argue over storm’s energy costs ​In an unusual move, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick joined a senate committee hearing Thursday evening for nearly a half hour to question the chairperson of the Texas utility regulator who was appointed by GOP Gov. Greg Abbott. Patrick recounted a recent phone call he had with Public Utility Commission Chair Arthur D’Andrea, whom Patrick and other senators have asked to retroactively reduce the market price for power during the deadly winter storm. D'Andrea and the PUC have declined to do so, citing unforeseen consequences of meddling in an electricity market that has already been settled. “You said you agreed with my view that we needed to correct this,” Patrick said of the phone call. "Sir, there's no way I agreed with you that we need to correct this," D'Andrea said. "There’s no way I would have done that. This whole thing is because I don’t agree with you. ... it would be very easy if I agreed with you. I don’t. I’m sorry.”D’Andrea, a lawyer who used to work in the Texas attorney general’s office, said he did not think the PUC has legal authority to retroactively change the market price for power during the time of the winter storm. “Even if the governor of the state of Texas told you to correct this error and this mistake, or respond to unusual circumstances, are you saying that you would not obey that?” Patrick said. “I’ve worked for him for a decade and he has never asked me to do anything that I thought was illegal,” D’Andrea said. “...I think it’s illegal, and his first thing he told me when I came to work for him is, ‘We are not doing anything illegal.’” The lively exchange came on the same day D'Andrea told lawmakers the state’s energy grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, overcharged power companies by roughly $3 billion after the winter storm, pushing back on a previous report from an agency watchdog that said the companies were overcharged by $16 billion.

In wake of Texas power crisis, US Senate examines threats to grid resilience --With Texas still reeling from the fallout of widespread power outages in February, a U.S. Senate panel held a March 11 hearing on the reliability, resilience and affordability of the nation's electric grid. Although the hearing often touched on the state's power crisis, it explored a whole range of threats and recent blackouts beyond Texas, with more frequent extreme weather events and an increasingly resource-diverse and complex power grid posing challenges across the country. "Today's hearing is not a referendum on Texas," Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said, pointing to other large-scale blackouts stemming from the 2014 polar vortex in the eastern U.S. and extreme heat and wildfires in California in 2020. "We need to incorporate all the lessons learned from those events into our future planning." Both the Texas Legislature and federal agencies are investigating the February grid failures. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., which develops mandatory reliability standards for all states, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission are conducting their own joint probe and "committed to quickly getting the facts," NERC's President and CEO James Robb said at the hearing. Although NERC's investigation is not complete, Robb said industry and policymakers must consider more investment in transmission and natural gas infrastructure to accommodate the growing share of U.S. generation from intermittent wind and solar energy. He also said regulation and oversight of gas supplies for power production "needs to be rethought." "While natural gas is key to supporting a reliable transformation of the grid, the natural gas system is not built and regulated to serve the needs of an electric power sector that is increasingly dependent upon reliable natural gas service," Robb said in his prepared remarks. "Clear regulatory authority is needed over natural gas when used for electric generation." Robb also urged better planning for extreme weather, which has "frankly becoming more routine," and called for increased investment in energy storage, hydrogen and other technologies. Mandatory weatherization standards were another topic. The Electric Reliability Council Of Texas Inc. currently does not have mandatory weatherization standards, with the state historically more likely to encounter extreme heat than cold. No representatives from ERCOT attended the hearing, with Manchin saying he had invited the grid operator but "they needed to remain available to their direct regulators" in Texas. Robb said NERC will know after its investigation whether generators in Texas had followed through on voluntary weatherization guidelines that NERC and FERC included in a 2011 report on a separate cold snap in Texas. NERC is now drafting mandatory national standards, with Robb noting that insufficient and inadequate weatherization in the southern U.S. has been a growing concern since 2012. But another panelist insisted that Texas has learned its lesson, with the state legislature considering weatherization bills for the gas and power industries. "Those [bills] will be adopted, and they will be stout," said Pat Wood, a former FERC chairman and past head of the Public Utility Commission of Texas. "It didn't work after 2011, so it will work now because it will be compulsory and there will be performance penalties."

Colorado AG asks federal regulators to probe traders' “windfall” gas profits from February cold snap - The 290,000 Colorado customers of Black Hills Energy could face up to $552 in surcharges over two years to pay for fuel-price surges during the Presidents Day weekend record cold snap, according to new filings with the state Public Utilities Commission.  Attorney General Phil Weiser, meanwhile, called on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to investigate the February storm on behalf of consumers, with special attention to news reports that traders booked a $210 million “windfall” profit from spiking natural gas prices. And the Colorado Office of Consumer Counsel said Gov. Jared Polis’ apparently unprecedented intervention in the PUC probe was asking the right questions, and that the OCC would continue to press for answers in defense of ratepayers facing steep bills. Colorado Natural Gas, which pipes fuel to a smaller number of Front Range communities, also said in new filings its customers would be asked for storm surcharges comparable to what Xcel and other utilities are seeking at the PUC, though it did not break out a 24-month average cost for consumers. Tri-State Generation, the state’s second-largest utility with dozens of cooperative members, said Tuesday it would not have to increase wholesale prices to members as a result of the storm, making it the exception so far among the state’s power generators and distributors. The new documents, which apparently met PUC deadlines Friday for companies to explain themselves as part of a special storm-related price investigation, were not uploaded to the regulatory agency’s public record until Monday. In the narratives of how they prepared for the mid-February cold streak and were pummeled by high spot prices, the utilities underline the economic impact of the storm by disclosing they have each sold new equity or taken on new debt just to pay for fuel costs from the three-day weekend. Black Hills disclosed $800 million in new short-term borrowing for the February gas purchases. The utilities have a right to seek pass-through costs for fuel, but at the unusual urging of Polis, the PUC has first asked for detailed explanations of whether the utilities did all they could to keep costs down. Black Hills Energy, following on previous disclosures by Xcel and others, said in its filing that residential gas customers may have to pay $153.60 to $444 extra over 24 months just for gas during the mid-February storm. Electric customers may be asked to pay $4.50 extra a month for 24 months, or $108 total, for higher generation costs. Only a small percentage of customers get both gas and electricity from the company, Black Hills said in response to questions Tuesday.

Nevada Lawsuit cites EPA, state concerns about lithium mine (AP) — Another federal lawsuit challenging the construction of a huge Nevada lithium mine approved in the final days of the Trump administration says the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and state wildlife officials repeatedly warned the plans don’t comply with laws protecting water and wildlife near the Oregon line. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management itself acknowledged that when it approved Nevada Lithium Corp.’s Thacker Pass mine on Jan. 15, it didn’t conform with the bureau’s visual-resource protection requirements, according to the lawsuit filed last week in U.S. District Court in Reno. Four conservation groups want a judge to void the expedited review of the mine under a series of Trump administration executive orders streamlining environmental regulations, especially for critical elements including lithium — a key component in electric car batteries. “In the rush to implement the project,” the lawsuit said the agency “swept under the rug the mine’s serious environmental impacts.” Some of the region’s most essential and irreplaceable sage grouse habitat could be lost if the mine is built, the suit claims. It says the bureau erroneously concludes no federally protected Lahontan cutthroat trout exist in the streams that will be affected and dismisses potential harm to golden eagles and destruction of pronghorn antelope habitat. “The generalized discussion of these impacts gives short shrift to potentially catastrophic impacts to the region’s protected, sensitive, and vulnerable species,” the suit states. “In many cases, the biological information ... is so vague as to render the analysis and any proposed mitigation meaningless.” A longtime Nevada rancher filed suit last month to block mining on federal land above an extinct volcano formed millions of years ago located 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Nevada-Oregon line. The new lawsuit cites detailed objections raised by U.S. and state regulators in correspondence and comments submitted to land managers. It was filed Feb. 26 by the Western Watersheds Project, the Great Basin Research Watch, Basin and Range Watch and Wildlands Defense. “We continue to find that the preferred alternative will likely result in adverse impacts to wildlife, ground and surface waters, and riparian vegetation within and outside the project area,” the Nevada Department of Wildlife wrote to the bureau on Jan. 4. Lithium Nevada CEO Alexi Zawadzki is confident the government review complies with all applicable federal laws.

ENERGY POLICY: Fossil fuel states eye tax breaks to aid struggling industries -- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 --Lawmakers in fossil fuel-heavy states are weighing tax relief proposals for oil and gas or coal companies in reaction to federal policies that they say harm energy producers.

Can Biden Keep Coal Country From Becoming a ‘Ghost Town’? - The New York Times — In eastern Kentucky, the poverty rate in several counties exceeds 30 percent. Unemployment is among the highest in the nation. And an outward migration over several decades has cut the populations of some counties nearly in half, leaving local governments strapped for tax revenue and struggling to fund essential services. “Fifty years from now, this could be a ghost town,” said former Gov. Paul E. Patton, an eastern Kentucky native. “That’s my prediction.” If Mr. Biden is to succeed, local economic experts and historians say, he will need to avoid the pitfalls of even the most serious past efforts at lifting up the region, many of which exacerbated economic gaps and further isolated its poorest communities. Days after taking office, Mr. Biden signed an executive order on climate change that also promised a new focus on economic development in communities that have been reliant on coal mining and power plants. A committee tasked with wrestling with the problem was given 60 days to make a plan. “We’re never going to forget the men and women who dug the coal and built the nation,” the president said. “We’re going to do right by them.” Without direct federal help, local residents and experts say, people living in those communities could suffer increasingly dire consequences as the nation moves away from coal for good — ending the boom-and-bust cycle that dominated their economies with a final and decisive bust. Past administrations have “accomplished really important work,” said Peter Hille, the president of Mountain Association, a Kentucky-based nonprofit group focused on community development, “but it has not been fundamentally transforming.” Near the end of the Obama administration, for example, the federal government poured $38.8 million into two dozen economic and work force development projects, many of them in central Appalachia. It included $7.4 million to create an optometry school in Pikeville, and $2.7 million to help train residents for jobs in information technology. “What is really going to be needed to move the dial in coal-impacted communities is some order of magnitude larger than that,” Mr. Hille said. Dotted across the mountains are towns where storefronts are vacant, grocery stores are distant and community schools are boarded up. In rural areas, making a decent living can mean juggling several of the scarce job opportunities that exist. Accessing adequate health care can be even more difficult. Some workers leave the region entirely, sending money back home and visiting on the weekends.

Opinion: Ohio must ensure state's energy grid is disaster-proof -- In the days since we’ve seen the heart-wrenching stories of families in Texas resorting to burning baby gates for warmth, waiting in long lines for food, and struggling to find clean water, politicians across Texas have tried to blame the statewide power outages on the state’s use of renewable energy sources. Nothing could be further from the truth. First, the facts: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) confirmed that only 4 of the 34 GW of energy that went offline were generated from renewable sources, largely wind. In fact, wind and renewable energy were the first to get restored. There is now consensus that the stalling of of fuel delivery to natural gas plants, made worse by the isolated nature of Texas’s grid, is to blame. Put simply, Texas wasn’t ready for record-breaking weather. Year after year, the U.S. sees record-breaking winters and summers. Ohio has been no exception. We must come to terms with the reality that record-breaking weather will be the new norm of the 21st century. As a new mom, I am aware that my son and his generation will likely inherit a world of extreme temperatures, heat waves, rising sea levels, and droughts thanks to the unfortunate consequences of our slow response to climate change. Icicles hang off the State Highway 195 sign on Feb. 18, 2021 in Killeen, Texas. Winter storm Uri has brought historic cold weather and power outages to Texas as storms have swept across 26 states with a mix of freezing temperatures and precipitation. Icicles hang off the State Highway 195 sign on Feb. 18, 2021 in Killeen, Texas. Winter storm Uri has brought historic cold weather and power outages to Texas as storms have swept across 26 states with a mix of freezing temperatures and precipitation. (Photo: Joe Raedle, Getty Images) Texas is a cautionary tale of what happens when we don’t plan ahead to ensure our energy infrastructure is as disaster-proof as possible. In an era of unpredictable climate and the ever-growing cybersecurity threats, it’s imperative that our grid is reliable and resilient. That includes weatherization but also means more investment in energy efficiency to reduce our overall energy needs; diversifying from coal and natural gas to greater investment in renewables and storage; and investing in community-owned energy generating assets that make our neighborhoods resilient if the region’s grid gets knocked out. Ohio politicians have pushed back against all these commonsense measures over the past several years, even resorting to back-door financial deals to shut down policies that would move Ohio in the right direction. Through House Bill 6, they’ve made it clear that they would rather see Ohio remain stuck with a 20th century, centralized, fossil-fuel grid, one that puts utilities’ profits over our safety and well-being.The diversification and decentralization of our energy grid isn’t a partisan issue. It’s a safety and security issue.

Santee Cooper restarted idled coal unit as Feb. freeze pinched gas supplies -Santee Cooper pulled an idled coal-fired generator off the sidelines last month as the deep freeze that enveloped much of the nation threatened its power supply. The state-owned utility restarted the unit at its Winyah Generating Station near Georgetown after a malfunction upended a plan to crank up part of a plant it owns in Berkeley County.

Ameren plant's coal ash ponds polluting Mississippi River, documents allege — Regional electric utility Ameren is discharging toxic coal ash pollutants into the Mississippi River at the utility’s coal-fired Sioux Energy Center — not far upstream from where St. Louis draws its municipal drinking water — in violation of the Clean Water Act, according to a complaint sent to the company, plus federal and state authorities. Great Rivers Environmental Law Center detailed the allegations in a 19-page “notice of intent to sue” sent to Ameren last month. Great Rivers is representing two affiliated water-quality nonprofits, Missouri Confluence Waterkeeper and Waterkeeper Alliance. The complaints are merely the latest in a long saga of criticism surrounding Ameren’s disposal of coal ash, a byproduct from burning coal that contains a range of harmful components, including arsenic and mercury. The company’s four coal-fired power plants in the St. Louis area all sit alongside major rivers and, together, have 14 total coal ash ponds — some lined underneath, and others unlined — where material sits buried into the water table at various depths. Sioux, near West Alton in St. Charles County, sits along a chute of the Mississippi River, just upstream of its confluence with the Missouri River. The letter argues that Ameren’s own data demonstrate that pollutants from the plant’s coal ash are in nearby groundwater and surface waters of the chute. The document also says pollutants are being discharged to groundwater in quantities that exceed the Environmental Protection Agency’s Health Advisory level and “may create human health risks.” The letter, sent on Feb. 12, was also given to regulators at the EPA and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, according to Great Rivers. The firm said if Ameren does not address the complaints within 60 days of receipt of the letter, a lawsuit could then proceed — a step the groups say they intend to take.

Judge slams Zinke's missing phone logs -- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 -- The Interior Department's management of former Secretary Ryan Zinke's phones is "deeply troubling," a federal judge ruled yesterday in a sharply worded criticism of the agency. In a 35-page order, Judge Beryl Howell said Interior's justifications for why it is allegedly missing swaths of Zinke's phone communications subject to a Freedom of Information Act request are "indeed highly implausible." The Center for Biological Diversity sought Zinke's communications leading up to the signing of a secretarial order in March 2017 that lifted a temporary moratorium on federal coal leasing from the Obama administration. Interior produced no phone records. "To accept the premise that no such documents exist would lead to the conclusion" that the order "was somehow developed in the intervening twenty-four-hour period without any prior planning, revisions, review, or discussions within [Interior] or between [Interior] and the White House," Howell, the chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, wrote in her order.. "That conclusion defies credulity." The ruling came after a declaration in the case last year from then-Interior Chief Information Officer David Alspach that raised red flags for government watchdogs. Alspach said Zinke, who led Interior from March 2017 to January 2019, lost his original government-issued domestic phone around November 2018. Because of that, Interior attempted to wipe it clean to follow security protocols. But, by mistake, it wiped Zinke's phone for international use instead. Zinke was issued a new phone for domestic use, but he then found the original one. When Zinke left the agency, he turned over the three phones, but apparently Interior couldn't access the original domestic phone because Zinke provided the wrong passcode. Then Interior appeared to suggest it had no authority to ask Zinke for the correct passcode.

Report shows financial troubles of 16 U.S. nuclear plants -- Friday, March 12, 2021 -- All 16 nuclear plants in the nation's largest electricity market may have lost money in 2020, according to newly released data from an independent monitor.

Regulators want $1B in refunds for Miss. power plant (AP) — Utility regulators say Entergy Corp. wrongfully charged customers over eight years for a Mississippi nuclear power station that often malfunctioned and was repeatedly deemed unsafe, filing a federal complaint seeking more than $1 billion in refunds to its customers. The New Orleans Advocate/The Times-Picayune reports that the complaint was filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by the Louisiana Public Service Commission, the New Orleans City Council and the Arkansas Public Service Commission. The utility regulators argue that $800 million Entergy spent to upgrade its Grand Gulf Nuclear Station in Mississippi hasn’t improved the plant’s safety record and performance compared to other nuclear power plants. The utility also charged customers more than $361 million for power it had to purchase when the deficient station was offline, the regulators said in the complaint. They argued Entergy should refund customers the power costs as well as the cost of the 2012 upgrade, which was passed on to ratepayers — more than $1.1 billion. And the regulators said other potential costs were due to Entergy lapses that “can only be identified upon further investigation.” The regulators also want the federal regulatory body known as FERC to force Entergy to run the plant more efficiently, and to add a requirement that any major capital improvement be reviewed before it begins. If FERC agrees, refunds could eventually show up on customers’ bills as credits.

PSEG says without $300M ratepayer nuclear subsidy, it will close South Jersey plants -  Public Service Enterprise Group told state officials it will close its three nuclear units in South Jersey if it does not retain a lucrative annual ratepayer subsidy it has received from utility customers over the past three years. In a more than six hour-hearing Monday before the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, the company argued energy prices have dropped so much that the $300 million subsidy approved in 2018 by the agency no longer covers the full cost of the plants, which provide more than 90% of the carbon-free electricity in the state. The issue is once again before the BPU as the company seeks to retain the $300 million subsidy paid by its customers for another three years. As in the past, the threat of closure of the plants loomed large, a decision that could jeopardize the Murphy administration’s aggressive clean-energy goals, a concern expressed by commissioners. BPU President Joseph Fiordaliso repeatedly raised the issue. “The bottom line, in your opinion, is, if PSEG does not get the maximum amount, will you close the plants?’’ he asked Daniel Cregg, executive vice president and CFO of PSEG. “The answer is yes,’’ said Cregg, who earlier told the commissioners that the market is sending signals to the company that the plants are no longer profitable. Even if the company retains the so-called $10 per megawatt hour zero-emission certificate (ZEC), the company would expect to lose money operating the units, Cregg said.

Judge dismisses lawsuit FirstEnergy filed against whistleblower, demands to know who authorized disclosure of auditor’s identity - cleveland.com – A federal judge Monday threw out a lawsuit that FirstEnergy Corp. and a contractor filed against a Chardon auditor over confidential information involving House Bill 6. In an extraordinary move, U.S. District Judge J. Philip Calabrese also ordered the Akron utility and Cleveland-based Clearsulting to identify the person who authorized the disclosure of the auditor as a whistleblower in filings last fall. “This is exactly the type of tactics that this company has used in the 35 years that I’ve been involved in Ohio politics,” said attorney Marc Dann, who, with Laura Hauser, represents Michael Pircio. “And now, they are using it on their employees and their consultants to scare them away from being whistleblowers.” The case involving Pircio began in July, days after federal authorities arrested then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four allies on racketeering charges involving House Bill 6, the $1.3 billion bailout for two nuclear power plants once owned by a FirstEnergy affiliate, records show. The bill became law in the summer of 2019. Pircio had been working at Clearsulting as a senior analyst, a job he started last spring. The position required him to work on the utility’s internal audit. He downloaded 57 pieces of information regarding the audit from a Clearsulting database and forwarded it to his attorneys, who sent it to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to filings by his lawyers. The agency’s public finance abuse unit is investigating, records show. Pircio was fired from Clearsulting on July 30, the day Householder and four allies were indicted on federal racketeering charges. Prosecutors have accused them of accepting $60 million in bribes from FirstEnergy and its affiliates in exchange for passage of the bill. Already, two of Householder’s closest associates, political strategist Jeffrey Longstreth and lobbyist Juan Cespedes, have pleaded guilty. “Since the summer of 2020, the indictment of then-Speaker of the Ohio House Larry Householder has rocked Ohio politics,” Calabrese wrote in his decision. “Given the nature of the illegal activity at issue, those allegations have spilled over into certain corners of the business community, as well. This case arises as a result of that indictment.” On Sept. 1, FirstEnergy and Clearsulting sued Pircio. The lawsuit alleged that the information Pircio took from the company was unrelated to his work, and he was not authorized to obtain it. The information included employee salaries, payment processes and records of contractors and vendors, according to court records. The filing also included an attachment: a letter from H. Vincent McKnight, a Washington, D.C., attorney who specializes in whistleblower cases and represents Pircio. “Mr. Pircio is indeed in possession of a number of Clearsulting documents that potentially show a violation of law,” McKnight wrote to a Clearsulting official. More than a week later, attorneys for FirstEnergy and Clearsulting filed another letter from McKnight about Pircio on the court’s docket. The filing of the letters appears to have irritated Calabrese. He wrote in a separate order Monday that he wanted to know “what proper purpose these public filings serve.”

 Ohio utility regulators may probe FirstEnergy over $4M payment to former top official, other questionable costs - —The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Wednesday is set to consider expanding its audit of FirstEnergy Corp. to include reviewing questionable costs that include a $4 million payment to an entity state officials have said is tied to former Public Utilities of Ohio Chairman Sam Randazzo. If approved by the commission, it could open the door to ratepayer refunds if state regulators find that money collected from customers to pay for infrastructure improvements was wrongfully used to pay the costs, which FirstEnergy officials say were “improperly classified,” “misallocated” to the company’s local affiliates or “lacked proper supporting documentation.” PUCO staff, in a written request to commission members, asked to expand the audit after they reviewed documents provided last month by FirstEnergy subsidiaries. The audit is being conducted by an outside firm, Blue Ridge Consulting, Inc. Cleveland.com has filed a records request with the PUCO to obtain copies of the documents. FirstEnergy spokeswoman Jennifer Young declined to provide the documents, stating in an email that they “were part of a confidential response.” A legal filing from Attorney General Dave Yost says FirstEnergy in early 2019 paid $4 million to a company associated with Randazzo, shortly before Gov. Mike DeWine hired Randazzo to run the PUCO, which regulates FirstEnergy and other Ohio utilities. Randazzo resigned last November after the FBI raided his Columbus home and news of the $4 million payment became public. Without explicitly identifying a Randazzo company as the recipient, FirstEnergy officials have said the payment led to “conduct corresponding to such payment,” and to the regulator “acting at the request or for the benefit of FirstEnergy as a consequence of receiving such payment.” FirstEnergy executives said during a conference call with investors last month that the $4 million payment was among the improperly classified expenses. They declined to offer specific details but said most occurred in Ohio and that some dated back 10 years or more. They said the overall amount is relatively small and “immaterial” to the company’s finances. PUCO staff, in a state filing made Monday, said they requested records from FirstEnergy shortly after the company disclosed making the improperly classified transactions in a February filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Upon reviewing the records, staff said they want their independent auditor to review the transactions “to determine whether funds collected from ratepayers were used to pay these vendors and if so, whether or not the funds associated with those payments should be returned to ratepayers.” The PUCO already has three other audits underway of FirstEnergy in the wake of the House Bill 6 scandal, in which ex-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four allies have been accused of using $60 million in FirstEnergy bribe money to secure the passage of legislation giving a then-FirstEnergy subsidiary a $1 billion-plus bailout, among other benefits.

Legislature owes it to Ohioans to stop 'embarrassing chapter' with monopoly utilities - Ohio has been rocked by the $60 million bribery scandal surrounding FirstEnergy and House Bill 6. The bill, which passed through a web of corruption tied to former House Speaker Larry Householder, bailed out FirstEnergy to the tune of $1.3 billion. It must be repealed. But doing only that won’t stop the next FirstEnergy corruption scandal. The aftermath and continuing revelations of the FirstEnergy scandal reveal that much more must be done. One of the most egregious, yet legal, activities that monopoly utilities engage in is charging their customers for political and advocacy spending. They are using our money to sustain their influence over politicians and line utility pockets. FirstEnergy’s use of this tactic is a prime example: They sent millions of dollars to dark money groups. These groups then engaged in a variety of political and public pressure tactics, from TV advertising to lobbying to direct political donations. All the while, the money FirstEnergy was spending often was passed off to their consumers through hidden fees. This makes all of us unwitting accomplices to their corrupt bribery scheme. The FirstEnergy Service Company is widely reported to be the funding source for bribes to a criminal enterprise led by Householder. Ratepayers are at risk of paying for most of this spending, based on how the money was accounted for in the utilities’ annual reports. The Ohio legislature owes it to consumers across the state to introduce and pass legislation that bars monopoly utilities from recovering all political, advocacy and public relations spending from ratepayers. The legislation can get to the root of the problem in a couple of key ways. First, it must strengthen Public Utilities Commission of Ohio rules that limit fee recovery. This includes defining spending in a comprehensive way that actually reflects ongoing corruption investigations, such as targeting the type of spending FirstEnergy engaged in through dark money groups, pass-throughs, and political consultants. Second, the legislation should codify that it is the utilities’ responsibility to prove they are not recovering such spending from ratepayers. They must do this through full, periodical disclosure with receipts and details. These practical measures would help protect consumers and increase transparency in what has become a harmful lack of oversight of monopoly utilities in Ohio. And it would help us move beyond an embarrassing chapter in the history of our state.

Court Blocks Oil, Gas Extraction on Ohio's Only National Forest - Center for Biological Diversity ― A federal judge blocked new oil and gas leasing and fracking in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest late Monday, following a ruling last year rebuking the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service for failing to consider threats to public health, endangered species and watersheds before opening more than 40,000 acres of the forest to fracking. Pending completion of new environmental reviews, Monday’s order blocks new leases on the Wayne, prohibits new drilling permits and surface disturbance on existing leases, and prohibits water withdrawals from the Little Muskingum River for already-approved drilling. “This is great news for the future of Ohio’s only national forest,” said Taylor McKinnon, a senior campaigner at the Center for Biological Diversity. “We’re grateful the judge recognized the damage fracking could do to this spectacular forest. The order will protect our climate, endangered wildlife and drinking water for millions of people.” U.S. District Judge Michael Watson said the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management had “demonstrated a disregard for the different types of impacts caused by fracking in the Forest. The agencies made decisions premised on a faulty foundation.”  “The Wayne is a public forest that we all own. Keeping its air and water clean, as well as its views intact, is a win that we can all celebrate.” In May 2017 conservation groups sued the agencies over plans to permit fracking in the Wayne, saying federal officials had relied on an outdated plan and ignored significant environmental threats before approving the fracking.“This victory, like the Wayne National Forest, belongs to all of us,” said Becca Pollard with the Sierra Club. “Permitting fracking anywhere is a threat to our health and clean air and water, and we're relieved to see the judge rule in favor of protecting the forest. We look forward to working together to ensure that this decision is made permanent and we may continue to enjoy and explore Wayne National Forest."

Court stalls fracking leases in Ohio's only national forest -- Ironton Tribune ― Late on Monday, a federal judge stalled oil and gas leasing in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest, ruling that the Trump administration failed to consider threats to public health, endangered species and watersheds before opening more than 40,000 acres of the forest for fracking.U.S. District Judge Michael Watson said the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Bureau of Land Management “demonstrated a disregard for the different types of impacts caused by fracking in the Forest. The agencies made decisions premised on a faulty foundation.”Watson’s ruling requires the agencies to redo their environmental analysis of the potential harms from fracking in the Wayne.“Fracking is a dirty, dangerous business,” said Wendy Park, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity. “This ruling helps ensure the health of this spectacular forest and its endangered animals and protects the water source for millions of people.”In May 2017 conservation groups sued the Forest Service and the BLM over plans to permit fracking in the Wayne, saying federal officials had relied on an outdated plan and ignored significant environmental threats before approving fracking in the forest. The lawsuit also aimed to void two BLM lease sales. The court will decide later whether to void those existing leases, but a planned March sale will likely be postponed. In today’s ruling the judge said the agencies ignored potential harm from fracking to endangered Indiana bats, the waters of the Little Muskingum River and the region’s air quality.

Federal Judge Deals Another Setback to Oil, Natural Gas Development in Ohio National Forest - -A federal judge has halted oil and gas development in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest (WNF) after a ruling last year found the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) failed to adequately consider the impact of unconventional development when they opened the land for drilling. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio ordered the agencies to further review their authorizations under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Pending review, this week’s order blocks new leases in the WNF, prohibits new drilling permits and surface disturbance on existing leases, and prohibits water withdrawals from the Little Muskingum River.Judge Michael Watson said the USFS and BLM “demonstrated a disregard for the different types of impacts” caused by unconventional development in the forest. He added that “the agencies made decisions premised on a faulty foundation.” The court found last year that federal regulators specifically failed to consider surface area disturbance, impacts on the Indiana Bat, the Little Muskingum River and regional air quality related to horizontal wells completed with hydraulic fracturing.The decision was another flash point in a long-running battle over whether exploration and production companies should be allowed to operate in the WNF, the state’s only national forest. Last year’s decision threw the future of WNF leasing into doubt when the case proceeded to determine if lease sales should be voided.Four environmental groups, led by the Center for Biological Diversity, filed a lawsuit against BLM and USFS in 2017 to void oil and gas leases and stop unconventional development in the forest.The BLM in 2015 proposed to lease parcels across 40,000 acres in the forest’s Marietta Unit in Monroe, Noble and Washington counties that were nominated by the industry for unconventional development. The Eastern States Office began auctioning parcels shortly thereafter, and more than 2,000 acres in the forest have since been leased for Utica Shale development.The court acknowledged this week, however, that the federal agencies did not completely abandon their duties under NEPA and indicated that remanding the environmental review would likely remedy the case.

Shell targeting 2022 for start of Pennsylvania PE resin unit - Royal Dutch Shell plc is citing 2022 as the likely start date of its massive petrochemicals plant under construction near Pittsburgh.

Pennsylvania agrees to settle gas drilling royalties lawsuit — Pennsylvania reached a settlement in a lawsuit against natural gas driller Chesapeake Energy Corp. for its handling of royalty payments to property owners, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro announced Monday. Speaking in Tunkhannock, a northeastern Pennsylvania town in the heart of heavy Marcellus Shale natural gas production, Shapiro said the agreement called for $5.3 million in restitution and improved royalty payments going forward. “It is the beginning of a new day and new protections for landowners,” said Shapiro, a Democrat, touting terms that include appointment of a mutually agreeable ombudsman to investigate landowners’ complaints. The lawsuit was filed more than five years ago against Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake, which filed for bankruptcy protection in Texas in June. Chesapeake communications and investor relations director Gordon Pennoyer noted the agreement still requires the bankruptcy judge’s approval. “Chesapeake greatly values its relationships with Pennsylvania royalty owners and is pleased to have reached a global resolution with them and the attorney general that addresses royalty owners’ concerns,” Pennoyer said in an email. “The company looks forward to working collaboratively with Pennsylvania royalty owners going forward..” The lawsuit, filed in December 2015 and amended in 2016 to include Anadarko Petroleum, claimed the two companies split up markets, keeping landowners from getting better deals by seeking competitive offers. An appeal in the litigation involving Anadarko about whether the state’s consumer protection law applies is pending before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

A Pennsylvania county went from bust to boom times with natural gas. Now, it’s nearly broke. ·— Greene County is going broke. Despite receiving millions in payouts from the natural gas industry to compensate such counties as Greene that host natural gas wells, it is struggling to balance its more than $40 million budget. This year, amid a pandemic, commissioners raised property taxes for the first time since 2010. Without major changes, county budget office projections show that Greene may not have the revenue or reserves to cover its costs by 2023. It’s a financial predicament that seemed all but guaranteed as the coal mining industry here has nearly disappeared, hollowing out the backbone of the local economy. That was, until the natural gas boom — and a massive influx of money that came with it — offered a different path.The windfall seemed to buy Greene County, which is in the southwest corner of the state, time to figure out how it would survive without coal. But nearly 10 years and more than 1,000 natural gas wells later, the county appears to be no better off financially than where it started, having spent through $37.2 million in impact fees without setting aside money to plan for the day the work would inevitably slow. “I quickly came to realize there was no fiscal planning,” said Mike Belding, one of two new county commissioners on the three-seat governing body. “They were just spending money as it came in.” Greene, home to 36,000 residents, is one of 31 counties statewide receiving “impact fee” payouts through a state program initiated in 2012, called Act 13. The funds are distributed yearly, and payouts are based on such factors as the number of wells in an area and population. Only three other counties — Bradford, Susquehanna, and Washington — have received more money than Greene from the impact fees over the lifetime of the program, according to reports filed with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. But unlike others that set the money aside and saved it for future investments, budget reports show Greene has used about $17.5 million to balance its budget since 2015. The other half went to projects that the newest commissioners say were shortsighted and wasteful, such as commissioning a $400,000 comprehensive plan that was never used and a $550,000 business loan program that yielded no returns for the county.

Biden DOJ Backs PennEast Gas Pipeline in Supreme Court Fight -- The Biden administration is throwing its legal weight behind the PennEast pipeline in a high-stakes Supreme Court case that could affect natural gas projects across the U.S.The Justice Department urged the high court to overturn a ruling that blocked PennEast from using federal eminent domain authority to take New Jersey land along the $1 billion project’s route. The filing comes as environmental advocates press the Biden administration to shut down or thwart development of other oil and natural gas pipelines.“The right of eminent domain was well-known at the Founding. As the Court has long recognized, the Constitution conferred that authority on the federal government, including the authority to take State-owned land, for projects within the government’s enumerated powers,” Acting Solicitor General Elizabeth B. Prelogar wrote in the brief.She added that the authority extends to private parties building projects deemed to be in the public interest, and said the lower court handling the case lacked jurisdiction over the appeal in the first place.The Monday brief comes as a disappointment to some environmental advocates who hoped the Biden administration would withdraw support for the PennEast pipeline. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Justice Department first backed the company’s legal arguments during the Trump administration.Ron Morano, executive director of Affordable Energy for New Jersey, said he hopes “this will be indicative of this administration’s future positions on our energy independence.”Environmentalists were dismayed by the Biden administration’s move. Maya K. van Rossum, head of the Delaware Riverkeeper Network, said the Justice Department’s decision to support PennEast in the case “is an abuse of power and trust and a failure of the current administration to do its duty to protect people and our environment.” Backed by Enbridge Inc., Southern Co., and other companies, PennEast would stretch 116 miles across Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as part of a broader buildout of East Coast gas infrastructure. Construction hasn’t started.

NJ Doesn’t Need Gas Infrastructure Projects Like NESE - -Fossil fuel industry groups that continue to push natural gas as a clean-energy solution do the public a profound disservice. Strictly speaking, natural gas is cleaner than coal, but they are both dirty fossil fuels and coal today accounts for barely 2% of New Jersey’s energy. The relevant comparison is between gas and wind or solar. And, here, there is no comparison. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is not “clean.” It’s a potent greenhouse gas, and rising natural gas production is one of the biggest drivers of climate change. The state’s Energy Master Plan recognizes this and calls for transitioning to 100% clean energy by 2050. New Jersey is no outlier in its aggressive climate and clean-energy policies. When New York State denied permits for the controversial Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline project earlier this year, it said, “the continued long-term use of fossil fuels is inconsistent with…the actions necessary to prevent the most severe impacts from climate change…” NESE would have carried fracked gas from Pennsylvania through sensitive environmental areas of New Jersey and across Raritan Bay into New York. Nevertheless, in paid sponsored content that appeared in this publication, a group calling itself “Affordable Energy for New Jersey” bemoaned the NESE decision and made several false claims calculated to drum up public support for new natural gas infrastructure projects in New Jersey. Let’s set the record straight. It’s absurd for AENJ to suggest that NESE would have provided “affordable energy for New Jersey.” NESE was designed to supply natural gas to customers in New York. New Jersey already has abundant pipeline capacity to meet in-state demand on even the coldest days. AENJ claimed that, without NESE, the only long-term option is a “virtual pipeline” of trucks carrying compressed natural gas (CNG) from Pennsylvania to New York, and that an average of 75 CNG trucks made that trip every day since May 20, 2020. That is false. There was zero CNG trucking during the summer of 2020, and none last winter except for a test using six trucks. National Grid, the utility company that wanted NESE, has no plans to use CNG trucking other than on extremely rare days when the average temperature falls below 10 degrees and brief annual tests of fewer than six trucks. AENJ’s assertion is like claiming that trucks are plowing the streets every night of the year because we might get a huge blizzard this winter.

Foes of South Jersey LNG plan say new frack ban might help their cause - NJ Spotlight News --A historic decision to ban fracking for natural gas in the Delaware River Basin is raising new questions about plans for a South Jersey dock where fracked gas would be exported in liquid form. On Feb. 25, Gov. Phil Murphy and the governors of Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware voted at the Delaware River Basin Commission to formally block the controversial process of harvesting natural gas, on the grounds that it would endanger water supplies for some 15 million people in the basin. Murphy’s vote on that ban is prompting opponents of the dock to ask whether they now have a better chance of stopping the project that he has so far supported. Critics argue that building the dock at Gibbstown in Gloucester County would be at odds with the new policy made explicit in that vote because it would stimulate the production of fracked gas that could contaminate drinking water and add to greenhouse gas emissions even though the gas would be coming from northeastern Pennsylvania outside the Delaware River Basin. And the fracked gas would be transported in a round-the-clock procession of trucks or trains in a region that has finally rejected the technique of harvesting natural gas, which has been blamed for tainting water with toxic drilling chemicals, and industrializing many rural areas where gas wells are built. If successful, the port project would provide new global market access for the abundant gas reserves of Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale, one of the richest gas fields in the world, whose development since the mid-2000s has been hindered by low prices and a shortage of pipelines. The Pennsylvania gas would be sold in liquid form to overseas markets, especially in Asia, where prices are much higher than in the U.S. The price of U.S. liquefied natural gas exports was near a five-year high in December but was still at less than half its level during the years 2009-2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

 The Delaware River Basin Commission Bans Fracking - The Delaware River Basin, a 13,539-square-mile watershed that cuts through Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania is now off-limits to fracking. In late February, the five-member Delaware River Basin Commission—the interstate government agency that oversees the basin—voted 4–0 to permanently ban the extraction of methane gas in the region. The decision comes a decade after the commission authorized a de facto moratorium on well construction and follows other fracking bans across the East Coast, marking a historic win for anti-fracking activists. The state commissioners—the governors of each state—all voted in favor of the ban. The federal commissioner abstained.After reviewing various studies and research reports on the potential impacts of fracking on the basin, the commission determined that fracking carries too high of a risk of contaminating drinking water. Fracking fluids are likely to leak into the groundwater, it found, and the Marcellus and Utica shale formations that sit below the river basin contain faults and fissures that may provide additional pathways for methane to migrate upward once the drilling occurs.“This ban will protect billions of gallons of drinking water and thousands of acres of forest from fracking wells,” said Jeff Tittel, director of the Sierra Club's New Jersey Chapter. “It also means that there won’t be pipelines built to take that gas to the market, protecting even more land and water.”The decision to ban fracking permanently in the Delaware Basin has been more than 10 years in the making. The commission began its discussions on regulating the gas industry in response to Pennsylvania's shale gas boom in 2008 and proposed regulations to halt drilling as early as 2010. The proposal was controversial, resulting in tense public hearings, and the vote was put on hold after former Delaware governor Jack Markell announced that he would vote no. During the stalemate, landowners in Wayne County sued the commission, arguing that it lacked the authority to ban drilling. The lawsuit was dismissed, and in 2017 the commission updated draft regulations that authorized a permanent ban on fracking in the basin.  The fracking ban, however, did not prohibit external natural gas companies from dumping their fracking wastewater into the basin, nor from taking water from the basin for fracking.

High Volume Fracking Banned In Delaware River Basin Due To Health Risks - -- A commission that oversees the safety and purity of water in the Delaware River basin has banned high volume hydraulic fracturing activities along the river, citing growing concerns over pollution and health risks from “fracking” operations that extract oil and gas.On February 25, the Delaware River Basin Commission, based in New Jersey, announced the approval of a final rule prohibiting high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF), according to a press release issued late last month. The prohibition has been added to the commission’s Comprehensive Plan and Water Code.Hydraulic fracturing, more commonly known as “fracking” involves drilling and fracturing shale rock to release oil and gas. The operations involve the injection of water, sand and chemicals into wells at high pressures to crack the surrounding rock, thus releasing the natural gas underground and allowing it to flow to the head of the well.Problems from fracking have previously been linked to negative environmental effects to the surrounding communities, due the impact on drinking water, as well as increased dust and exhaust from drilling rigs, compressors and the transportation of the water, sand and chemicals. The process has also been linked to increased earthquake activity, and the extent of potential harm to humans living close to these operations has remained an open question.The prohibition, Resolution No. 2021-01, gives several reasons for putting the high volume fracking ban in place. It predicts that the practice could lead to spills and releases of fracking chemicals, fluids and wastewater, which would adversely impact surface and ground water. This may eventually impair drinking water sources, and pose widespread health concerns. In addition, the Resolution warns the fluids released by fracking contain pollutants such as salts, metals, radioactive materials, organic compounds, endocrine disruptors and toxic chemicals whose toxicity has yet to be determined.“High-volume hydraulic fracturing and related activities pose significant, immediate and long-term risks to the development, conservation, utilization, management, and preservation of the water resources of the Delaware River Basin and to the Special Protection Waters of the Basin, considered by the Commission to have exceptionally high scenic, recreational, ecological, and/or water supply values,” the Resolution states. “Controlling future pollution by prohibiting high volume hydraulic fracturing in the Basin is required to effectuate the Commission’s Comprehensive Plan, avoid injury to the waters of the Basin as contemplated by the Comprehensive Plan and protect the public health and preserve the waters of the Basin for uses in accordance with the Comprehensive Plan.” In testimony filed with the commission on February 25, the National Resource Defense Council (NRDC), an environmental protection group, called for a ban on all fracking procedures in the Basin, noting that the river provided drinking water to 17 million people. The NRDC testimony (PDF) says the new rules do not go far enough.

House energy committee OKs bill changing how oil and gas wells would be valued for property taxes -The state House Energy and Manufacturing Committee approved referring a bill to the House Finance Committee Tuesday that would change how the State Tax Department values producing oil and gas wells for property tax purposes and the appeals process for all property taxes in the state. This would provide a more expansive definition of operating expenses for gas and oil producers in another industry-friendly move by the committee.House Bill 2581‘s provisions include allowing expenses from lifting, processing, transportation and other industry activities to be subtracted from wells’ income and require the tax department to resurvey well expenses every three years unless natural gas contracts or the average oil price traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange changes more than 20% from the last year a survey was completed, meaning state administrative costs would increase in unstable markets.The bill would expand the jurisdiction of the Office of Tax Appeals to include property tax valuation, classification and taxability, allow petitioners to appeal to a county Board of Equalization and Review or the Office of Tax Appeals and eliminate the Board of Assessment Appeals. “It’s a fairly complicated statute, but right now you’ve got two chances at the county level, so you’re making the same argument to the same body a few months apart wanting a different result, and if you don’t get the result under the current system, you go to the circuit court,” committee counsel Robert Akers said. “So the new system will take you through the Office of Tax Appeals on the way to circuit court.”State Tax Department attorney Steve Stockton said the bill adds another layer to the tax appeal process but doesn’t necessarily make it more complicated.“So more government?” Delegate Kayla Young, D-Kanawha, asked Stockton.“You could look at it that way, yes,” Stockton replied.A fiscal note from the Office of Tax Appeals accompanying the bill estimates it would significantly increase the caseload at the office and envisions the hiring of two more administrative law judges to add to the current two, two staff attorneys and four additional support staff, an increase in staff that the office’s current leased space would not support. The fiscal note, which did not factor in estimated cost of leasing larger office space, estimates the other additional expenses would cost an annual $425,000 to $475,000.

Energy analysis nonprofit says changing gas markets have diminished need for Mountain Valley Pipeline  --A study published Monday by an energy analysis nonprofit suggests that changes in natural gas markets since the Mountain Valley Pipeline was conceived have undercut the economic case for the long-delayed pipeline project.First announced in 2014, the 42-inch-diameter, 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline is slated to provide up to 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to markets in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States, traveling from Northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia.But legal and regulatory challenges have set back the pipeline, which originally was scheduled for completion by the end of 2018 but is now slated for service by the end of 2021. Its price tag has ballooned to at least $5.8 billion, over 50% more than its original cost estimate.Monday’s analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a nonprofit that supports transitioning to sustainable energy, concludes that lower gas demand and risks to liquefied natural gas exports have lessened the need for the Mountain Valley Pipeline.In addition to citing the project’s cost overruns and unknown cost effects of the project sponsors’ recent decision to start a new individual water permit application process, the IEEFA report notes that natural gas demand in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic is projected to be much lower than projections anticipated when pipeline developers sought approval from federal regulators for the project in 2015.“Pipeline capacity out of the Appalachian Basin exceeds production. Growth in Appalachian natural gas production is increasingly dependent on a growing export market for Appalachian gas, a prospect that faces significant risks. Thus, Mountain Valley Pipeline faces a significant risk that its capacity will be underutilized,” the report argues. The report also posits that the potential cancellation of the Southgate extension of the pipeline, which would span 75 miles from Southern Virginia into Central North Carolina, weakens the case for the pipeline.The IEEFA report criticizes the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s process for evaluating pipeline need, arguing that it does not consider a rapidly changing domestic natural gas market or risks associated with growing liquefied natural gas exports on the domestic gas market.

Report questions business case for Mountain Valley Pipeline - A study released Monday by an analysis firm calls into question the business case for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which will bring local Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas to markets in the southeast. MVP, which is being built and will be operated by Canonsburg-based Equitrans Midstream Corp. (NYSE: ETRN), is closer than it ever has been to completion since the project was announced in 2014. Most but not all of the legal challenges have been settled and Equitrans told analysts in a conference call last month that it expects to have all the permits in hand within the next six months and MVP in service by the end of the year. The pipeline’s cost has nearly doubled over the years from $3.7 billion to $6 billion. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which is dedicated to a sustainable energy future, wrote in a report Monday that the pipeline was conceived in a very different gas market and that there’s too much pipeline capacity for the natural gas demand that there is now. “Significant pipeline capacity has been added to take gas out of the Appalachian Basin, even as the outlook for domestic natural gas demand and exports has grown more uncertain,” IEEFA wrote. The report said that natural gas consumption in the Southeast is likely to drop through 2030 and there will be fewer natural gas powered electricity plants built than forecast in 2014. And a potential lift from liquified natural gas production, which would be sent overseas, hasn’t yet materialized, IEEFA said. MVP and Equitrans blasted the report, saying that IEEFA's conclusions were incorrect "and are in alignment with the group's specific policy agenda." "MVP’s 2 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet/day) capacity has been and remains fully subscribed and MVP Southgate has a firm commitment from PSNC/Dominion Energy for 300 MMcf/day, (million cubic feet/day)," spokeswoman Natalie Cox said. "Furthermore, MVP retains strong support from shippers whose need has grown since cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline last summer. The need for an abundant, reliable energy supply is real, and the unnecessary project delays are affecting consumers." The report said if the extension of MVP called Southgate isn’t approved in North Carolina, then it would likely take out more demand for natural gas.

Pittsylvania NAACP asks DEQ to refer MVP air permit to Air Pollution Control Board - The Pittsylvania County Branch of the NAACP, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, passed a resolution March 2 opposing immediate approval of an air permit requested by the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) for its proposed Lambert Compressor Station, currently sited approximately two and a half miles east of Chatham. The group also approved a written comment to DEQ on the draft air permit.The resolution and comment request that Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality refer the draft air permit to the citizen Air Pollution Control Board. The referral would allow time for further consideration of air quality issues and concerns regarding environmental justice. According to the group’s written comment to DEQ, “Despite MVP and DEQ having acknowledged that the Lambert Compressor Station has the potential to affect communities of color, MVP’s environmental justice consultant did not contact us, the local Pittsylvania Branch NAACP, at all, and neither MVP nor DEQ contacted us until December 2020. We strongly hold that affected and vulnerable community residents of Pittsylvania County have not had access and opportunities to participate in the full cycle of the decision-making process about the MVP Southgate project, including the Lambert Compressor Station.”

Equitrans wins round in circuit court over North Carolina pipeline - An extension of the Mountain Valley Pipeline into North Carolina planned by Equitrans Midstream Corp. won a round in federal court as judges ordered North Carolina regulators to better explain why they denied a key water permit for the project. The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the rejection of water quality certification by the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, which is a win for the Southgate pipeline that would bring natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale through the Mountain Valley Pipeline and then into North Carolina 75-miles via Southgate Pipeline. Neither MVP nor Southgate are yet completed, as they have been stuck in the permitting process and various challenges. MVP could be in-service by the end of the year but Southgate still needs permits to even begin the work. The court sent the issue back for more explanation as to the reasons why it was denied. The agency would be able to reject it again but with more details, according to parties involved. Mountain Valley Pipeline and Equitrans are based in Canonsburg. MVP Southgate spokesman Shawn Day hailed the decision. “MVP Southgate’s design has minimized impacts to surface waters and wetlands to the greatest extent practicable, and the project would comply with all state water quality standards,” Day said. “We look forward to working with the NDEQ to satisfy any concerns that it may have, and we remain committed to building this important infrastructure project to meet North Carolinians’ demand for cleaner and more reliable, affordable natural gas.” A statement from the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality said the Fourth Circuit ruling had vindicated its concerns. “The ruling upholds the state’s authority to determine that building the Southgate extension at this time poses unnecessary risk to North Carolina’s streams, lakes and wetlands,” the agency said in a statement to WFAE-FM. The agency didn't immediately respond to a request from the Pittsburgh Business Times. One of the case litigants, Appalachian Voices, which opposes the pipeline, said the ruling was a “false victory” for MVP. “The court specifically noted that North Carolina regulators’ denial of the permit aligned with federal and state water quality standards, they just didn’t explain it well,” said Amy Adams, North Carolina program manager at Appalachian Voices. “We do expect the agency to correct this quickly enough, and in the meantime, the half-finished MVP mainline remains an over-budget boondoggle mired in legal setbacks.”

Denial of Mountain Valley Pipeline permit reversed by federal appeals court --An extension of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, threatened by the denial of a key permit from North Carolina, gained new life Thursday. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals threw out a decision by the state’s Department of Environmental Quality, ruling that it did not properly explain the reasons why it had denied a water quality certification for a portion of the natural gas pipeline Called MVP Southgate, the extension would start at the main pipeline’s terminus in Pittsylvania County and run for 75 miles into North Carolina. In sending the case back to North Carolina regulators, the 4th Circuit ordered them to address two things: inconsistent statements from a hearing officer who at one point found that the project had lessened its impact on water bodies “to the greatest extent possible,” and why it chose to deny the certification outright rather than give it conditional approval. “On appeal, we hold that the Department’s denial is consistent with the state’s regulations and the Clean Water Act,” Chief Judge Roger Gregory wrote in a decision from a three-judge panel. “Nevertheless, the Department did not adequately explain its decision in light of the administrative record.” The denial was based, in large part, on uncertainty over whether the main portion of the pipeline — a 303-stretch in West Virginia and Southwest Virginia that is currently under construction — would ever be completed.

Biden Can Protect Communities, Halt Mountain Valley Pipeline | NRDC --We have new leadership in Washington under President Biden, and his administration should take action to send the Mountain Valley Pipeline right where it belongs—into the dustbin of history.I recently blogged about 5 key reasons to stop the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which would transport dirty fracked gas across Appalachia. Unfortunately, despite the science, the imperative to stop global warming, and legal obligations to protect clean water, national forest land, and endangered species habitat, the prior administration—no friend of the environment—kept issuing illegal permits to move this dirty and destructive project forward.But there is still time to change the outcome. In January, President Biden issued an executive order aimed at tackling the climate crisis, protecting public health and the environment, and restoring science in federal decisions. Executive Order 13990 directs federal agencies to review the former administration’s decisions that conflict with the principles of environmental protection, reducing climate change, and using the best available science. The EO also directs agencies to take action to address these inconsistencies where appropriate.What does that mean for MVP? It means that the Biden Administration can reverse anti-environmental actions taken under Trump that greased the skids for the fracked gas MVP. The new administration has already rescinded approval for copper mining at an Apache sacred site in Arizona and cattle grazing on public lands permitted in Oregon without full public input. MVP decisions that Biden should reverse:

• The December 2020 U.S. Forest Service Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision to amend the Jefferson National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan;
• The January 2021 Bureau of Land Management right-of-way and temporary use permit; and,
• The September 2020 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Opinion and Incidental Take Statement.

MVP has already harmed landscapes and clean water: West Virginia and Virginia have assessed MVP more than $2 million in penalties for more than 350 environmental violations. And there is more high-risk construction planned: MVP still has to cross hundreds of water bodies along the pipeline route. The Biden Administration can stop future risks to water quality by ensuring that the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works review the pipeline’s new application for a Clean Water Act permit with stringent consideration of whether it can comply with water quality standards.

NTSB opens public docket for Danville, Kentucky pipeline rupture investigation - The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) opened the public docket on Thursday as part of its ongoing investigation of the fatal, 1 August 2019 natural gas transmission pipeline rupture and fire near Danville, Kentucky. NTSB opens public docket for Danville, Kentucky pipeline rupture investigation The docket for this investigation includes more than 3600 pages of factual information, including reports on pipeline operations, integrity management, metallurgical testing, and emergency response efforts. The docket also includes interview transcripts, photographs, employee training records, and other investigative materials. The docket contains only factual information collected by NTSB investigators; it does not provide the final report, nor does it contain analysis, findings, recommendations, or probable cause determinations. As such, no conclusions about how or why the rupture occurred should be drawn from the information within the docket. Analysis, findings, recommendations, and probable cause determinations related to the rupture will be issued by the NTSB in a final report at a later date. A 30 in. pipeline owned and operated by Enbridge Inc., ruptured and released natural gas that ignited. One person was fatally injured in the accident that destroyed five residences, damaged 14 other residences, and burned about 30 acres of land, including railroad tracks. The public docket for this investigation is available online here.

Absent Demand Drivers, April Natural Gas Futures Falter Fourth Consecutive Day; Cash Prices Fall - Natural gas futures on Monday tumbled for a fourth straight day amid mild weather, demand uncertainty and steady production. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.664/MMBtu, down 3.7 cents day/day. May fell 4.1 cents to $2.698. Weak near-term weather demand also weighed on cash prices. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 25.5 cents to $2.500. Bespoke Weather Services said that its mid-range forecast on Monday had shifted a tad cooler from a previous outlook on Friday, with the potential for colder air next week. But the current week looks to be exceptionally warm and, overall, conditions are expected to prove mild over the balance of March, minimizing heating demand. “We still have plenty of warmth this week…including a couple of days near daily record levels in terms of national” gas-weighted degree days, Bespoke said. “This skews the 15-day period as a whole warmer than normal, despite the cooler look next week.” Production, which had recovered from the freeze-offs caused by the Arctic blast that derailed Texas’ energy system in February, held steady on Monday near 90 Bcf. Against that backdrop, traders fretted about supply/demand uncertainty created by the weather outlook and punctuated by last week’s bearish Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, Bespoke said.

US gas storage draw measures well below normal for second straight week | S&P Global Platts --US natural gas storage volumes declined less than the market expected for the second consecutive week, weighing again on prices as only three net draws likely remain before injection season begins. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Storage inventories decreased by 52 Bcf to 1.793 Tcf for the week ended March 5, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of March 11. The withdrawal was weaker than the 65 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. It was also less than the 72 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year and the five-year average withdrawal of 89 Bcf. The draw was well below the 98 Bcf pull reported for the week prior as production rebounded 5.5 Bcf/d week over week, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Higher US production and softening demand pushed back on other sources of supply, with Canadian imports falling 1.5 Bcf/d. US demand came down sharply on the week alongside a warm-up in temperatures. Total demand dropped more than 6 Bcf/d week over week, with residential and commercial losses accounting for almost all the decline. After last week's massive storage miss, uncertainty was high heading into the March 11 EIA report. Survey responses ranged from a draw of 42 to 86 Bcf. This uncertainty led to gas prices trading in a relatively tight range over the course of the week, with the April NYMEX shifting between $2.60/MMBtu and $2.70/MMBtu. The Henry Hub April contract slipped 3 cents to $2.65/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. Outside of the uncertainty created by last week's EIA report, benign weather forecasts and sizeable wind generation also kept a lid on pricing. Storage volumes now stand 257 Bcf, or 12.5%, less than the year-ago level of 2.050 Tcf and 141 Bcf, or 7.3%, less than the five-year average of 1.934 Tcf. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 22 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 12, which would measure 37 Bcf weaker than the five-year average, as the withdrawal season enters its final month.

April Natural Gas Futures Flounder Following Bearish Storage Report - Natural Gas Intelligence - Natural gas futures on Thursday lost ground for the sixth time in seven sessions after the latest federal inventory report disappointed for a second straight week and forecasts called for easing weather demand. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.668/MMBtu, down 2.4 cents day/day. May shed 2.5 cents to $2.703. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. clawed out a modest gain for the second straight day, rising 1.0 cent to $2.495. [Brighter Days Ahead: Listen in as Price & Markets Editor Leticia Gonzales looks forward at the North American natural gas market as it recovers from the historic freeze that crippled Texas on NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast.] The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 52 Bcf from natural gas storage for the week ended March 5. The result was notably shy of expectations set by analysts ahead of the report. A Bloomberg survey showed respondents predicting a median 78 Bcf withdrawal, while a Reuters poll landed at a median decline in stocks of 76 Bcf. NGI’s model predicted a 104 Bcf pull. A year earlier, EIA recorded a 72 Bcf withdrawal for the period, and the five-year average is a pull of 89 Bcf. “It was warmer than normal over much of the U.S.” during the covered week, hindering heating demand, NatGasWeather said. Still, the firm noted that colder temperatures in the Northeast and parts of the West, coupled with stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, were expected to fuel enough demand to muster a storage pull in the 70s Bcf. The latest report follows a “stunning” miss a week earlier, the firm noted. Utilities pulled 98 Bcf from storage in the week ended Feb. 26, well off market expectations for a withdrawal in the 130s-140s Bcf. “This week’s bearish miss confirmed weaker demand that carried over from last week’s report instead of prospects for a correction to it,” NatGasWeather added. “This suggests next week’s draw will be near 20-25 Bcf, if not lower and closer to 10 Bcf.” While production and LNG feed gas “have recovered to pre-Arctic blast levels, demand hasn’t.”

Natural Gas Forward Prices Slip as Market Eyeing Near-Term Bottom - Natural gas prices trimmed about a nickel or so from the forward curve as spring appears to have sprung a couple of weeks early. The April contract was down 6 cents on average for the March 4-10 period, while the summer strip (April-October) was down 4.0 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Similar losses were seen further out the curve as the storage picture has improved a bit in recent weeks. An increase in oil prices also is seen as potentially driving some modest increases in associated gas production later this year. The winter 2021-2022 strip fell an average 5.0 cents for the trading period ending Wednesday, while summer 2022 slipped a penny on average, Forward Look data showed. Only New England points registered any notable deviation from other U.S. markets, and even then, losses were not extraordinary. Algonquin Citygates April prices fell 12.0 cents from May 4-10 to reach $2.858, according to Forward Look. The summer strip was down only 2.0 cents to $2.460 as was the winter 2021-2022 strip, which averaged $5.840. Similar declines were seen at Tennessee Zone 6 200L. Technicals continue to point in a bearish direction for benchmark Henry Hub prices, and by extension other U.S. markets, according to EBW Analytics Group. Closing below $2.68/MMBtu early in the period took out key support for the April contract. Friday’s trading was expected to “test further whether futures are forming a near-term bottom.” Some changes in the background state support that theory. EBW analysts noted that weather forecasts had cooled a bit for the coming few days, but then they warm again by the end of the week. Production also has recovered from some maintenance-induced disruptions over the past week, while LNG demand remained strong, according to EBW. Bespoke Weather Services said the weather models were pointing to a possible weak trough swinging into the eastern United States toward days 14-15, though it’s not expected to be a “significant player” in the overall pattern. Any cooling was expected to be short-lived, with the bias of the pattern staying to the warmer side into early April. Power burns also remained weak, even adjusted for weather, according to Bespoke. The firm said the market’s reluctance to send prices even lower indicated there was an expectation that data would improve soon. “It better, given how weak recent supply/demand balances have been, but we simply do not see this showing up yet.”

Judges press FERC on its level of scrutiny into demand for Spire gas pipeline project — — The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission faced stiff questioning from appeals court justices over whether it too readily accepted a pipeline company's assurances about the need for a natural gas pipeline project backed only by an affiliate. A decision in the case could have implications for the level of scrutiny the commission must use to assess the market need for future gas projects. At issue is the 65-mile Spire STL project, approved by FERC in August 2018 and entered into service in November 2019, moving 400,000 Dt/d of gas from the Rockies Express Pipeline system into the St. Louis Area. The project faced objections from the Environmental Defense Fund, which argued FERC should have looked beyond the project's contract for 88% of capacity with affiliate Spire Missouri to assess the need. Enable Mississippi River Transmission (MRT) and the Missouri Public Service Commission also raised objections during the FERC review that the project was unneeded and would negatively impact St. Louis gas market competition. Of note, then-Commissioner Richard Glick, who now chairs the commission, dissented on FERC's November 21, 2019, rehearing order (CP17-040), contending neither Spire STL not Spire Missouri had explained why capacity on the preexisting pipeline owned by MRT was not sufficient to meet Spire Missouri's needs. He said the order turned the needs demonstration requirement into "a meaningless check-the-box exercise." During oral argument March 8, all three judges on a panel of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals pressed FERC on whether under the circumstances of the Spire case there wasn't a greater burden on the regulator to examine whether there was self-dealing between the pipeline company and its affiliate (Environmental Defense Fund v. FERC, 20-1016). "What more do you need than constructing a pipeline for an affiliate where it's not serving new market and [is] providing no price benefit to customers? That just leaves the obvious red flag that it's for the benefit of the shareholders, not the customer," Judge David Tatel said. "What else do you need that would be more dramatic than this?" And Judge Harry Edwards continued to press the point. "Judge Tatel is asking you very pointedly in this situation where there are no new needs and no cost savings, is it enough for us to accept your argument that in this situation [Spire] offered what they claimed were business reasons and, 'we had no reason to go behind it'. That's strange argument," he said. Defending the decisions, FERC attorney Anand Viswanathan said the commission on rehearing pointed to rationales offered by Spire as being sufficient to overcome concerns raised about overbuilding. Those included enhancing reliability and supply security, reducing reliance on older pipelines and mature basins, and eliminating reliance on propane peak-shaving infrastructure. "Based on that record, FERC found no reason to second-guess the business judgments of the pipeline, Viswanathan said. "Based on that record, I don't think it's fair to say that the commission relied exclusively on the affiliate agreements here." But the judges appeared skeptical of FERC's decision to accept the business judgments. If FERC commissioners are "saying nothing more than there's no reason to second-guess what has been offered, that's really not an agency doing its own independent analysis of the factors that would justify this proposal,

 USA Sells 10+ Million Barrels of SPR Oil - The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy has announced that contracts have been awarded from a recent Congressionally directed Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil sale. The DOE said it had awarded contracts to seven entities, comprising Glencore Ltd., Marathon Petroleum Supply and Trading LLC, Motiva Enterprises LLC, Phillips 66 Company, Shell Trading (US) Company, Valero Marketing and Supply Company, and the Government of Australia. The awarded contracts represent a total sale of 10.1 million barrels of crude oil, the DOE noted, adding that, of this amount, 4.1 million barrels will be sold from the Bryan Mound site, 3.3 million barrels from the West Hackberry site, and 2.7 million barrels from the Big Hill site. The SPR will schedule deliveries to take place in April and May this year, with early deliveries available in March 2021, the DOE revealed. A total of ten companies responded to the notice of sale, which was issued on February 11, submitting 60 bids for evaluation. The Congressionally directed sale fulfills requirements of Section 403(a)(4) of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 and the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018, the DOE outlined. Proceeds of the sale will be deposited in the U.S. Treasury by the end of Fiscal Year 2021. The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil and was established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the United States under the international energy program, according to the DOE’s website. The federally owned oil stocks are stored in underground salt caverns at four sites - Bryan Mound, Big Hill, West Hackberry, and Bayou Choctaw - along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. The SPR is said to have an authorized storage capacity of 714 million barrels.

 Gulf of Mexico- HWCG, Helix extend fast oil spill -- Helix Energy Solutions Group has entered into a new agreement for offshore oil spill response resources with HWCG, a consortium of deepwater oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico who have come together with the shared goal of quickly responding to offshore oil spills. Under the agreement, HWCG’s members are given the opportunity to identify the Helix Fast Response System as a response resource in permit applications to U.S. federal and state agencies, and to deploy the Helix Fast Response System to respond to a well control incident in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Developed in 2011, based on Helix’s experience as a responder in the 2010 Macondo well control and containment efforts - the Deepwater Horizon disaster - the Helix Fast Response System consists of the Helix Producer I floating production unit, Q4000 or Q5000 vessels, subsea intervention systems, crude transfer systems, and other well control equipment. Under the terms of the agreement, HWCG will pay Helix an annual retention fee. HWCG’s members will receive a credit against the annual retention fee for every day that a member utilizes the Q4000 or Q5000. The agreement replaces the parties’ prior agreement and is effective April 1, 2021, for an initial two-year term.

Coastal authority backs proposal to boost Louisiana's share of offshore oil, gas revenue --A planned U.S. Senate bill to increase the amount of federal offshore oil revenue shared with Louisiana and other Gulf Coast states, and to set up a similar revenue sharing program for wind energy generated in federal waters, got a vote of support from the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. The proposed Reinvesting in America's Shoreline Economies and Ecosystems Act would fulfill promises that Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., made last summer to expand revenue sharing for coastal states under the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act when it became clear that such an expansion would not be included in the wildly popular Great American Outdoors Act. The senators have not yet introduced the revenue sharing bill. The outdoors act diverts a greater share of outer continental shelf energy revenue – mostly from Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production – to guarantee $900 million a year for improvements to national and local parks and wildlife refuges. It also provides $11.9 billion over five years to chip away at an enormous backlog of deferred maintenance on public lands. While the details of the planned revenue sharing bill won't be known until it is introduced the letter that the coastal authority agreed Wednesday to send to Cassidy and Whitehouse says it would change the 2006 Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act to increase revenue shared with Gulf Coast states. The states now receive 37 percent of the revenue that is paid to the federal government for some wells drilled or developed in federal Gulf waters since 2017, and a much smaller share for wells developed between 2007 and 2016. The Louisiana Constitution requires that money be used for coastal levees or restoration projects.

Tribes worry Line 5 tunnel construction could bring sex trafficking, violence to Native communities -- When oil and gas companies employ hundreds of out-of-town, typically male workers to work on pipeline projects, an uptick in that area’s rates of sexual violence and sex trafficking usually follows. That’s becoming a concern for Michigan’s Indigenous people, who cite Canadian oil company Enbridge’s impending Line 5 pipeline tunnel project in the Mackinac Straits as a reason to worry for their already-vulnerable tribal communities nearby. The correlation between extractive industry construction like pipeline projects and sex trafficking is well-documented. Temporary housing communities for the labor force building the pipelines, often called “man camps,” result in a temporary population boom in often-rural areas. These create a strain on the area’s social infrastructure and can stretch police services thin if crimes occur. There’s also a lot of documentation of Native women and children experiencing disproportionately high rates of violence, kidnappings and murder. According to research from the National Instutute for Justice, Native American women face a murder rate 10 times higher than the national average. About 84% experience some form of violence in their lifetimes. In Michigan, about 25.5% of all murders of Native Americans go unreported to the FBI. There is no state or national database of missing and murdered Indigenous women.The combination of these realities results in hotbeds of violence for Indigenous populations when an oil construction project comes to town — like one will in the Straits of Mackinac once Enbridge begins work on its Line 5 replacement pipeline. And members of nearby tribes are raising concerns.“I can see that happening to us, no doubt. I think it’s already happening here in northern Michigan,” said Stacey Ettawageshik, a member of the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians (LTBB) and lead advocate for the tribe’s Survivor Outreach Services.“As far as sex trafficking goes, as Indigenous people we are way more at risk than the general population. And although we don’t make up a lot of the population here … there are definitely high rates of violence, sexual violence, especially against Native women,” Ettawageshik said.

Canadian minister: Straits of Mackinac oil pipeline 'nonnegotiable' - Canada isn't taking "no" for an answer when it comes to the Line 5 oil and gas pipeline. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in November announced plans to revoke the 1953 easementallowing the controversial, 68-year-old twin pipelines to operate on the Straits of Mackinac lake bottom. Canadian oil transport giant Enbridge, which owns and operates Line 5, then announced its intention to defy Whitmer's order to cease operation by May.On Thursday, Canada's natural resources minister told a committee of the House of Commons he believes Line 5 will remain operating over Whitmer's order."We are fighting for Line 5 on every front and we are confident in that fight," Seamus O'Regan told a special House of Commons committee on Canadian-U.S. relations, as quoted by the Canadian Press."We are fighting on the diplomatic front, and we are preparing to invoke whatever measures we need to in order to make sure that Line 5 remains operational. The operation of Line 5 is nonnegotiable."O'Regan called Line 5 "very different" from the Keystone XL pipeline in the U.S. Plains states that President Joe Biden shut down on his first day in office. But he didn't elaborate on the differences.O'Regan said he discussed both Line 5 and Keystone XL with new U.S. Energy Secretary — and former Michigan governor — Jennifer Granholm during their initial conversation last week.Line 5 moves 23 million gallons — about 540,000 barrels — of oil and natural gas liquids per day east through the Upper Peninsula, splitting into twin underwater pipelines through the Straits, before returning to a single transmission pipeline through the Lower Peninsula that runs south to Sarnia, Ontario.The pipeline, and particularly its more than 4-mile underwater section in the Straits, have for years been a source of contention.Enbridge was responsible for one of the largest inland oil spills in U.S. history — a major leak on one of its large oil transmission lines near Marshall in July 2010. That spill fouled more than 38 miles of the Kalamazoo River and took four years and more than $1 billion to clean up. Enbridge in 2016 agreed to a $177-million settlement with the U.S. Justice Department and Environmental Protection Agency, including $62 million in penalties, over the Marshall spill and a 2010 spill on another of its pipelines in Romeoville, Illinois. A similar spill disaster on Line 5 in the Straits would devastate the Great Lakes, shoreline communities and the Michigan economy, critics of the pipeline have long contended. Enbridge officials have countered that Line 5 is safe — despite findings of anchor strikes, missing supports and lost protective coating over recent years.

 Some Michigan propane suppliers switching to rail cars in anticipation of Line 5 closure - Propane suppliers reliant on Enbridge’s Line 5 are transitioning to railroad cars to get their products in anticipation of the oil pipeline shutting down in May.Several suppliers in Michigan began exploring alternatives when Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced the end of an easement that allows the controversial 67-year-old pipeline to run beneath the Straits of Mackinac. From Superior, Wisconsin, Line 5 runs east to the Upper Peninsula then southeast to a Rapid River township refinery, near Escanaba, where natural gas liquids from Line 5 are stripped for propane. On Nov. 13, Whitmer gave Enbridge until May to decommission Line 5 after announcing the easement revocation following a yearlong DNR compliance review. Enbridge says the aging pipeline is safe, but opponents have been arguing for years that the risk posed by an oil spill where Lakes Michigan and Huron connect is too great. Enbridge pushed back on Whitmer’s order, filing a lawsuit and saying it won’t comply with the shutdown absent a court order. Canadian officials have also been vocal against the shutdown, with Seamus O’Regan, Canada’s natural resource minister, telling a special House of Commons committee on Canadian-U.S. relations the country is “fighting for Line 5 on every front and we are confident in that fight.” Some suppliers have already transitioned to railroad cars while others await the result of a legal battle between state attorneys and Enbridge. Still, if the pipeline is shut down, Michigan propane suppliers in the Upper Peninsula will have a few months to figure out an alternate solution to meet their high demands during the fall and winter seasons. Experts and state officials are still identifying alternative energy options if the pipeline is shut down, and Whitmer’s U.P. Energy Task Force is expected to present a report on options at the end of March. Reports from the task force identify trucking and using railroad cars as alternatives to deliver propane, both would require significant infrastructure investment to support demands. Enbridge has plans to build a tunnel to house the pipeline and has received initial approval for permits from the state for the project.

 Geologists Share Their Concerns With Drilling For Oil In Big Cypress - By all regards, the Tamiami Trail that streaks from Naples on the west coast of Florida to Miami on the east was an engineering wonder when it was built a century ago. Today, of course, the state and federal governments are spending billions of dollars to restore the watery flow of the Everglades, and part of that work involved lifting up sections of the Tamiami Trail -- U.S. 41 -- and placing them on bridges to allow the water to flow on south unimpeded towards the bay. You can see the successes by driving along the Trail as it cuts right through the heart of Big Cypress National Preserve, a 720,000-acre watery slice of natural wonderment, a wild landscape lurked by Florida panthers, bobcats and black bear and festooned in spring with Cardinal airplants, a species considered endangered by the state, that clutch onto dwarf cypress trees.Against the costly work of what is known as the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, there are ongoing efforts to seek oil beneath Big Cypress that could result in construction of miniature "dams" that could impact the river of grass as well by altering the flow of water. The damage would not be equal to that done by the Tamami Trail when it was built, but there would be impacts just the same.While the actual practice of drilling oil out from under the national preserve does not greatly concern two geologists well-familiar with the underpinnings of South Florida, the surface infrastructure needed to drill for oil is a concern when risks to the preserve are explored, they told the Traveler in separate interviews.“The issue, at least in my opinion in terms of hydrology and groundwater contamination and those kinds of issues, relates to the surface facilities around the well," said Tom Missimer, who spent 34 years consulting on oil drilling before heading into academia at Florida Gulf Coast University a little more than a decade ago. "The key to me is really not the construction of the well. The issue is if they’re maintaining surface facilities.”Those facilities might include large tanks to store the recovered oil before it's trucked it off to a refinery, or a pipeline system to pump the oil away. Also involved are containment systems for the briny water that is separated from the oil. "Your potential points of contamination are around the site where they collect the oil and water,"

Valero crude oil leak heightens concerns over proposed pipeline | Southern Environmental Law Center --Reports of an 800-gallon crude oil leak last year at a storage site near the terminus of a proposed high-pressure oil pipeline by Valero Energy Corp’s have heightened concerns about the risks the project poses to the Memphis Sand Aquifer, which supplies drinking water to the city.Automated monitoring systems failed to detect the leak, caused by corrosion in 37-year-old pipes, at Valero’s Marshall County storage site in Mississippi. This is just couple counties away from Shelby County, Tennessee, where Memphis is located. Even though pipeline companies are now required to install leak detection systems, these do not always work as planned. In a study of 4,000 oil and fuel spills reported to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration since 2010, only about seven percent were discovered because of leak detection systems.Valero and Plains All American Pipeline have proposed building a high-pressure crude-oil pipeline through southwest Memphis, home to a number of Black neighborhoods, and directly through the wellfield that provides the local neighborhoods’ drinking water. Community groups have risen in opposition to the dangerous proposal.“This latest leak just proves what we’ve been saying about this all along: There is no such thing as a safe oil pipeline,” said Justin J. Pearson, of Memphis Community Against the Pipeline. “Pipelines leak, almost inevitably. It’s not an abstract risk of harm, it’s something that will almost certainly happen if this project goes through.”The Memphis Sand Aquifer supplies clean, reliable drinking water to Memphis and Shelby County— the largest metropolitan area in the United States that relies exclusively on groundwater for its municipal water supply. see: Hydrogeologic report warns of pipeline threats to Memphis drinking water source.

 Pipeline from Memphis to Byhalia draws opposition | MS Business Journal A planned 49-mile pipeline to carry oil from a refinery in Memphis and connect two pipelines at Byhalia (Marshall County, Mississippi) has gotten all its permits – but it has drawn opposition.U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen, a Democrat who represents Memphis, has asked President Joe Biden to rescind the permission the Plains All American project has gotten.On his first day in office, Jan. 20, Biden rescinded the permits for the 1,200-mile Keystone XL pipeline as part of his “transition” to “green energy.”And the effects on the oil industry are already being felt, including in Mississippi.Yak Access, based in Columbia, which lays hardwood mats to create roads in remote areas that need to be reached, such as for oil pipelines, has already taken a major hit because of Biden's order. Same for Jones Lumber Co. which produces the mats in Hazlehurst and Natchez.Neither business responded to messages left to ascertain whether they have contracts or bids on the project.Activists in Memphis and Cohen cite what they say are concerns about the potential contamination of the city's drinking water drawn from the Sand Aquifer located deep below the surface.The city's drinking water, first drawn from “artesian wells” in the late 1800s, is still a point of civic pride for Memphis because of its purity.And the opponents say that the decision to route the 24-inch-diameter pipeline through industrialized areas and low-income minority neighborhoods reflects “environmental racism.”

Refiners Are Emerging from Deep Freeze and Buying U.S. Oil Again -  -- Physical oil prices in the U.S. are rebounding to levels seen before a deep freeze hit Texas last month, showing fuel-making plants are thirsty for crude again. Seven of 18 refineries affected by the cold blast -- making up over 2 million barrels a day of crude processing capacity -- were operating normally as of Monday. Mars Blend, a regional sour crude benchmark, traded this month at the largest premium to Nymex oil futures in nearly three weeks, while other key grades also firmed. Another reason for the strength is due to increased demand for U.S. crude from overseas buyers after OPEC+’s surprise decision to continue limiting supply. As much as 5.5 million barrels a day of crude processing capacity was suspended when arctic temperatures in the U.S. south halted power supply and damaged equipment at refineries in America’s energy hub in February. Crude inventories piled up by a record 22 million barrels as a result. Since then, plants including those operated by Motiva Enterprises LLC and Valero Energy Corp. have restarted, and the rest of the sites will likely resume operation this week. Buying is popping up from South Korea, India, Canada and Europe, although interest from China has been muted because of high inventories. With OPEC producers keeping supply cuts in place in April, some customers that were expecting available supply from Middle East producers, especially of medium-high sulfur crudes, may have to seek alternatives like Mars Blend or Poseidon. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase official selling prices for its April supply to Asia and the U.S. could also spur additional purchases of U.S. sour crudes.

Texas Output Returning with Caution -Texas fuel makers are racing to restore operations knocked out by mid-February’s brutal winter storm, but they’re also casting a wary eye on improvements in the market and may be reluctant to come back at full throttle. Refiners are gun-shy after 12 months of losing money in a market that was hit hard by Covid-19, prompting several plants to close or slash production. So, even as the market beckons with fatter profit margins, tighter inventories and signs of rising demand, they are weighing the risk of being stuck with a glut of fuel supplies again. It’s easy to see why they would be tempted, though. Gasoline inventories on the Gulf Coast plunged by 11 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 26 as the region’s refining capacity sank to a record low of less than 41%, while gasoline demand rose the most since May. The theoretical profit margin for refining crude oil into gasoline and diesel, known as the crack spread, is trending near its highest since February of 2020. But demand for this time of the year remains significantly lower than in March 2019, when there was no pandemic, and no one can say for sure when life will come back to normal. Refiners are also facing rising costs for tradeable credits known as RINs that are used to show compliance with the nation’s Renewal Fuel Standard. “Margins have improved a lot, especially FCCs,” said Robert Campbell, head of oil products research for Energy Aspects Ltd., in a reference to gasoline-making units. “But RINs are a killer! Adjusting for that, margins are not so great.” As of Friday, seven of 18 refineries impacted by the storm, including those that shut all or some units, were able to operate normally. Most of the rest will likely restore operations by the end of this week.

Trader Says USA Shale Producers Unlikely to Ramp Up Output -- Oil’s surge following OPEC+’s surprise move to maintain cuts in supply shows the producers’ group is in charge of the market, Vitol Group said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies shocked the market on Thursday when they opted to keep output curbs largely in place, belying expectations that they would pump more crude to meet rising demand. Benchmark Brent futures jumped toward $70 a barrel at the end of the week. “The market is telling us that OPEC+ have control,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said Sunday in an online forum hosted by consultant Gulf Intelligence. “We’re going to get a stock-draw that is going to accelerate through the second quarter and that’s why the market is doing what it’s doing.” Oil producers and traders were left reeling last year after the coronavirus pandemic wiped out a third of energy demand, dragging down prices. Surplus crude flooded into storage, swelling stockpiles to the point where U.S. futures dropped below zero. OPEC+ has since implemented unprecedented production cuts, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Its decision to maintain output restrictions to support prompt prices -- the cost of barrels sold in the coming months -- indicates the group aims to cut into that mass of stored oil by undersupplying the market. Key OPEC+ member Russia previously voiced concerns that such a move would allow rival drillers in the U.S. to seize market share. Yet shale producers are unlikely to ramp up output, Muller said. “U.S. rig counts are still nowhere close to supporting the U.S. returning to anywhere like the 13 million barrels a day we closed 2019 at,” he said. Muller spoke Sunday before Saudi Arabia said it had thwarted drone and missile attacks on some of its facilities. Brent crude surged past $70 a barrel in early trading on Monday before erasing gains. Further increases in demand could still push prices higher, according to Muller.

Oil and gas pipelines plague US property owners - Some years ago, David Howell got a call from a landowner in Central Texas who had 300 feet of an old oil pipeline buried under his property. It was clearly no longer in use. The area around the pipeline was overgrown and the signage had faded or fallen away. The landowner wanted to build there now, and was wondering if Howell could come remove it.Howell, who owns a pipeline salvage business, thought he could do the work for as little as $1,000. There was no clause in the landowner’s agreement with the pipeline company regarding abandonment, so the company had no responsibility to remove the pipeline. But the landowner nevertheless needed the pipeline company’s permission, as the company still owned the line. The company acquiesced, but it insisted that the landowner use a contractor of its choosing, who was quoting the work at $50,000. The landowner ultimately sold the property rather than deal with the pipeline.“I get a call a week from some landowner who says, ‘I got an abandoned pipeline, can you come take it out?’” Howell said. “Basically [pipeline workers] are putting a pipeline on some schmuck’s property and leaving it there, and that’s happening all over the United States. Hundreds of thousands of miles of pipeline have been just abandoned on peoples’ property.”It’s a familiar story for Howell, who has been salvaging and recycling abandoned pipelines for more than 20 years, and it’s one that could become increasingly common as renewables outcompete oil and—in particular—natural gas pipelines age out of service.There are some 3 million miles of natural gas pipelines buried in the US, shuttling the fuel between drilling sites, storage facilities, power plants, and homes. More than half of all gas transmission lines in the country were installed before 1970, according to data from the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration. Those pipelines have an average lifespan of 50 years. And it’s not just old pipelines that are set to go out of service. Younger pipelines are also at risk of falling into disuse as the power sector comes to rely less on natural gas in favor of wind, solar and batteries. Not so long ago, natural gas was heralded as a bridge from fossil fuels to renewables. No clearer sign exists that that bridge has been crossed than the cancellation of several high profile natural gas pipeline projects in the last year, including theAtlantic Coast Pipeline and the Constitution Pipeline. What does that mean for the millions of miles of gas pipelines that are already in the ground?

Oil Industry’s Fight to Roll Back Tribal Sovereignty in Oklahoma - IN A LANDMARK decision last summer, the U.S. Supreme Court confirmed that the eastern half of the state of Oklahoma is reservation land, legally “Indian Country.” Although Oklahoma officials spent acentury ignoring treaties signed by leaders of the Muscogee (Creek) Nation, the justices asserted that the treaties remain the law of the land — meaning, most likely, that the reservations of four other tribal nations that share a distinct legal and political history in Oklahoma also stand.McGirt v. Oklahoma, a major victory for Indigenous nations, is now having legal consequences well beyond the state. The Supreme Court ruling, however, was only the beginning of a new battle to redefine Oklahoma’s identity.On its face, the McGirt case had nothing to do with the oil and gas industry. Jimcy McGirt, convicted to life in prison for child sex abuse, argued that the land where he committed the crimes qualifies as a reservation. Thus, he successfully argued that his conviction should be overturned since he should have been tried in federal, not state, court.The problem for the oil and gas industry is that McGirt’s push to reconsider jurisdiction on the band of territory where the alleged crime took place meant also reconsidering the status of around half of Oklahoma. The decision upended the state’s authority over a swath of land that produces 40 percent of Oklahoma’s total monthly oil and gas production and is home to the global oil pricing hub of Cushing, a town known as the “pipeline crossroads of the world.”Almost immediately after the court ruled, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt placed representatives of the oil and gas industry at the head of a key commission deciding what the state’s post-McGirt future will look like. Fossil fuel representatives are also moving to deploy a complex legal strategy aimed at forcing the courts to resolve uncertainty about what it now means to produce oil in Oklahoma. Half a year after the landmark ruling, both of these efforts show the central role the oil and gas industry has played in the state, as Oklahoma responds to the Supreme Court.

Energy companies have left Colorado with billions of dollars in oil and gas cleanup — High Country News – When an oil or gas well reaches the end of its lifespan, it must be plugged. If it isn’t, the well might leak toxic chemicals into groundwater and spew methane, carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere for years on end. But plugging a well is no simple task: Cement must be pumped down into it to block the opening, and the tubes connecting it to tanks or pipelines must be removed, along with all the other onsite equipment. Then the top of the well has to be chopped off near the surface and plugged again, and the area around the rig must be cleaned up. There are nearly 60,000 unplugged wells in Colorado in need of this treatment — each costing $140,000 on average, according to the Carbon Tracker, a climate think tank, in a new report that analyzes oil and gas permitting data. Plugging this many wells will cost a lot —more than $8 billion, the report found. Companies that drill wells in Colorado are legally required to pay for plugging them. They do so in the form of bonds, which the state can call on to pay for the plugging. But as it stands today, Colorado has only about $185 million from industry — just 2% of the estimated cleanup bill, according to the new study. The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) assumes an average cost of $82,500 per well — lower than the Carbon Tracker’s figure, which factors in issues like well depth. But even using the state’s more conservative number, the overall cleanup would cost nearly $5 billion, of which the money currently available from energy companies would cover less than 5%. This situation is the product of more than 150 years of energy extraction. Now, with the oil and gas industry looking less robust every year and reeling in the wake of the pandemic, the state of Colorado and its people could be on the hook for billions in cleanup costs. Meanwhile, unplugged wells persist as environmental hazards. This spring, Colorado will try to tackle the problem; state energy regulators have been tasked with reforming the policies governing well cleanup and financial commitments from industry. “The system has put the state at risk, and it needs to change,”

What's next for Biden's freeze on new oil drilling leases - President Biden's decision to halt new oil drilling leases on federal lands will have very minor effects on U.S. production through at least the end of 2022, per the Energy Information Administration's first analysis of the policy change. The leasing freeze is among the most controversial energy decisions from the nascent administration, drawing strong attacks from Republicans and the oil industry. "No effects will likely occur until 2022 because there is roughly a minimum eight-to-ten month delay from leasing to production in onshore areas and longer in offshore areas," EIA's latest monthly outlook states.The change will reduce production by an average of less than 100,000 barrels per day next year compared to what's expected without the freeze. EIA expects continued recovery from the depths of pandemic. Their latest projections show production rising from an average of 11.1 million bpd in Q2 of this year to 12.41 million bpd in Q4 of 2022. What we don't know: The long-term effect of the administration's leasing policy on U.S. production.That's partly because the policy itself is in flux. Yesterday Interior announced a "virtual forum" on March 25 as part of its review. It will help inform an interim report slated for completion this summer. EIA data shows that about 22% of U.S. oil production and 12% of natural gas production in 2019 came from federal lands and waters, Bloomberg notes. It's pretty clear that Biden, who vowed major new restrictions during the campaign, won't revert to prior leasing practices. Interior said in yesterday's announcement that it wants to "put our public lands’ energy programs on a more sound and sustainable conservation, fiscal and climate footing."

In bid to shift oil workers to clean energy, Biden faces pay gap — Texans have found their way to oil and gas fields and refineries for generations, heading to places such as Midland and Beaumont, where, with little more than a capacity for strenuous and dirty work, they could earn incomes that offered entry into the middle class. But as governments shift from fossil fuels to solar panels and wind turbines, hoping to hold off the worst effects of climate change, that way of life is expected to wind down in the decades ahead. President Joe Biden envisions the nation’s oil workers and coal miners finding new jobs in a clean energy economy, building solar farms and manufacturing batteries, and applying their experience to harness other forms of energy. It’s a tall order, requiring not only hundreds of thousands of workers to start new careers but also a massive expansion of the nation’s clean energy industries. Most of the world’s renewable energy technologies, from lithium ion batteries to wind turbines, are produced in China and other East Asian nations, which offer low labor costs. In addition, clean energy jobs in the United States, such as working on wind turbines or installing solar panels, don’t pay nearly as well as those in the oil and gas industry, where even workers in the lower ranks can earn six-figure salaries. “Someone working in a refinery leaving to go install solar panels, they’re probably going to take a 75 percent cut in pay,” said Rick Levy, president of the Texas AFL-CIO, the state’s largest labor union. “What do we do for the folks that have been powering this country for the last 100 years? How do we shape this new economy so jobs can be sustaining in the same way jobs in the fossil fuel industry have been?” It’s a conundrum plaguing communities from Appalachian coal country to Wyoming’s natural gas fields, and perhaps nowhere more than Houston, which has long reigned as the “energy capital of the world.” Oil and gas made Houston’s economy hum, and now civic leaders are starting to ask whether they can take the capital and knowledge built over a century of drilling and refining and use it to create well-paying jobs in new industries such as advanced battery manufacturing and offshore wind farms. Unlike oil, however, clean energy technology can be produced anywhere, regardless of the rocks, minerals and geological formations that lie beneath the surface. China and other East Asian nations have steadily come to dominate global manufacturing, developing supply chains and amassing an expertise in producing the equipment that enables clean energy. More than 70 percent of the world’s solar panels are made in China, according to the research and consulting firm IHS Markit. China now is looking to dominate the market for advanced batteries that will power the coming wave of electric vehicles.

As climate fight shifts to oil, Biden faces a formidable foe (AP) — President Joe Biden’s bid to tackle climate change is running straight through the heart of the U.S. oil and gas industry -- a much bigger, more influential foe than Democrats faced when they took on the coal industry during the Obama years. Coal dominated U.S. power generation for decades, with the bulk of that fuel coming from the massive strip mines of Wyoming’s Powder River Basin — a market that collapsed in recent years as utilities switched to natural gas. Fast forward to 2021 — and oil and gas have eclipsed coal to become the biggest human source of greenhouse gas emissions from public lands and waters, federal production data indicates. That’s made government fuel sales an irresistible target for Democrats as they try to rein in climate change. Biden’s election has put big oil companies on the defensive after largely having their way in Washington under President Donald Trump. But in taking on petroleum companies with a moratorium on oil and gas lease sales, Biden picked a foe that spent lavishly over decades to secure allegiance from Republican lawmakers. The industry is also deeply enmeshed in local economies -- from Alaska and the Gulf Coast to the Rocky Mountain drilling hub of Casper, Wyoming -- posing a challenge to the Democrat as he tries to navigate between strong action on the climate and recovering from the pandemic’s financial devastation. “You’re not hurting the big guys that are doing all the development. You’re hurting these little guys that are dreaming up where no one else thought there was any oil and gas,” said Steve Degenfelder, land manager for family-owned Kirkwood Oil & Gas in Casper, a community of about 60,000 known as The Oil City. Trump’s final months in office saw a huge spike in new drilling permits after his administration sped up approvals. As a result, some companies with the biggest presence on public lands have announced that they are ready to weather changes under Biden. An executive from Devon Energy told investors last month that the company was “ready to roll with the punches” and has about 500 drilling permits in hand. That will last the company for years in Wyoming and New Mexico. “They expected this....They prepared for it,”  “But the difference now is going to be stark. (Oil and gas companies) don’t get to run energy and environmental policy in the way they once did.” Gone from power in Washington are former industry lobbyists including Trump’s Interior Department secretary, David Bernhardt, who oversaw a loosening of rules for drilling. They’ve been replaced in many instances with environmentalists and industry critics. Biden’s nominee for Interior secretary, New Mexico Rep. Deb Haaland, has a history of anti-oil activism. Just a week after his inauguration, Biden announced the sales moratorium while officials review potential climate impacts and whether energy companies are paying enough. He’s following a familiar template -- a 2016 Obama-era moratorium on federal coal sales that Trump and other Republicans seized on as evidence of a “war on coal” by Democrats. That last “war” was against a retreating army: Coal production in Wyoming peaked in 2008 — and by the time of the moratorium, most major coal companies had gone bankrupt and scuttled plans for major expansions. The oil industry stumbled last year during the coronavirus pandemic and a price war, but now companies such as Devon, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum are poised to expand their presence on public lands, including in the Powder River Basin. Less insulated against the policy changes are smaller companies such as Kirkwood Oil & Gas, operating in downtown Casper since it was founded by William Kirkwood in 1965. It’s now run by his sons with about 40 employees and drilling in several western states.

Republicans put procedural delay on Haaland's nomination - Two GOP Senators have put holds on Rep. Deb Haaland’s nomination to be Interior Secretary, putting up a procedural hurdle that will delay the New Mexico Democrat's final confirmation vote. Sens. Steve Daines (Mont.) and Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.) said they will force debate on Haaland’s nomination, which would last for 30 hours. Despite the delay, Haaland, a New Mexico Democrat, is still expected to be confirmed since she’ll need just a simple majority to eventually get to the floor. A statement from Daines’s office said the senator thinks it's important to have a floor debate on Haaland’s record. “I will be forcing debate on Rep. Haaland’s nomination to Interior,” Daines said in a statement. “Her record is clear: she opposes pipelines & fossil fuels, ignores science when it comes to wildlife management & wants to ban trapping on public lands. Her views will hurt the Montana way of life and kill Montana jobs. We must consider the impact she will have on the West.” Lummis, in a statement, cited President Biden’s energy policies in her statement. “Congresswoman Deb Haaland will be a champion of this and even more radical policies, and I am committed to doing anything I can to fight the Biden and Haaland job-killing agenda,” she said. Haaland stressed during her Senate confirmation hearing that she’ll be implementing Biden’s agenda, not her own, and said fossil fuels will still play a role in the country’s energy mix.“There’s no question that fossil energy does and will continue to play a major role in America for years to come. I know how important oil and gas revenues are to fund critical services,” she said at the time. “But we must also recognize that the energy industry is innovating, and our climate challenge must be addressed.”

Senate confirms Michael Regan to lead EPA – --The Senate confirmed Michael Regan to lead the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday, putting the North Carolina regulator in charge of restoring the climate and water pollution regulations that the Trump administration had weakened. Regan spent four years as secretary of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, where his record of fixing environmental problems faced by low-income residents and communities of color drew national attention. It also propelled him to the Cabinet-level position above more prominent state regulators, such as California's Mary Nichols. "Michael Regan is the kind of person who can help unite us in common purpose as we respond to the climate crisis we face, as well as to clean our air, clean our water and strive to make sure that we don’t leave some of our communities, some of our neighbors behind in our efforts to do so," Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), chair of the Senate Environment committee, said on the Senate floor ahead of the vote. Regan was confirmed by a 66-34 vote, with 16 Republicans joining all 50 Democrats in support of him. He will be the first Black man to run the EPA, and the second African-American person to do so after Obama’s first-term administrator Lisa Jackson. In North Carolina, he won plaudits from environmentalists for blocking an extension of the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline and for securing a blockbuster deal with Duke Energy to clean up waste ponds containing coal ash from the state's power plants. He also won a major settlement to address contamination of toxic "forever" PFAS chemicals with manufacturer Chemours. As administrator of the EPA, Regan will lead an agency that will play a major regulatory role in President Joe Biden’s aggressive climate agenda. Topping his to-do list will be crafting a new climate rule for power plants now that a federal court struck down the Trump EPA’s version, strengthening tailpipe emissions limits for cars and light trucks, and reducing methane leaks from the oil and gas sector. The power plant rule that's expected to curb carbon dioxide emissions will be a key driver in Biden's plans to eliminate greenhouse gases from the nation's electricity grid by 2035, and set the country on course to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.

 The Petroleum Industry May Want a Carbon Tax, but Biden and Congressional Republicans are Not Necessarily Fans - The largest U.S. oil industry trade group is considering an endorsement of carbon taxes for the first time. But the biggest news may be how little that is likely to matter, as U.S. climate policy moves decisively in an entirely different direction.The American Petroleum Institute confirmed that its member companies are trying to arrive at a consensus about carbon pricing—a position that almost certainly will involve trade-offs, including less government regulation, in exchange for the industry’s support of taxes or fees.Economists have long favored making fossil fuels more expensive by putting a price on carbon as the most simple and cost-effective way to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Most big oil companies, including ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and Chevron, endorse carbon pricing, although they have done little to push for it becoming policy. But API’s move for an industry-wide position comes just as the Biden administration has made clear that it is moving forward with regulation, investment in clean energy research and deployment and a broad suite of other government actions to hasten a transition from energy that releases planet-warming pollution.Unsurprisingly, many view the API move as a cynical effort to stave off a looming green  onslaught. “The American Petroleum Institute is considering backing a carbon tax — but only to prevent ambitious regulation of greenhouse emissions,” tweeted the Center for Biological Diversity.The White House had no immediate comment on the news. But for now, anyway, there is little sign that the Biden administration is prepared to surrender regulatory authority on climate in exchange for a tax. Biden’s team includes avowed advocates of carbon taxes—most notably, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. But the unmistakable message from the White House is that it will pursue a government-led drive for action on climate change, not a market-driven approach where taxes or fees do most of the work of weaning the nation off fossil fuels. The administration clearly has been influenced by political and economic thinkers who argue that pricing carbon may be necessary for reaching the goal of net zero emissions, but it would be more politically savvy—and ultimately, more effective—to start with other action to mandate or incentivize cuts in greenhouse gas pollution.

President Biden, please stop Enbridge Line 3 | Opinion - Minnesota Reformer - Another egregious betrayal of Indigenous people’s rights and a cynical betrayal of the U.S. legal process are currently taking place in northern Minnesota over Enbridge Energy’s Line 3 oil pipeline out of Alberta, Canada. The line will carry what’s known as tar sands oil — the dirtiest, most polluting and most expensive-to-extract oil anywhere on the planet. It also is nearly impossible to clean up because it sinks to the bottom of waterways. Already, nearly 150 people (aka “Water Protectors”) have been arrested since construction began Dec. 1, 2020. Line 3 is the pollution equivalent of 50 new coal-fired power plants, and shows us how oil and water don’t mix in our territorial lands of 10,000 interconnected lakes, rivers and aquifers. Oh, and there is also a global pandemic in the plot, where Enbridge is the ongoing, super-spreader threat. Line 3 is yet the latest chapter in the scorched earth history of the many treaty betrayals and genocidal atrocities committed by state and federal governments in Indian Country, and it must be stopped. It is sometimes referred to as the “pandemic pipeline” because of the perfect storm created by COVID-19: A depressed economy, a fearful public, a set of Line 3 hearings that were conducted remotely and did not constitute a public process. Like the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency hearings, which were billed as “telephone town halls” that no one could get on. And if you did, you had only two minutes to tell them why the permits should not be issued. Consequently, for metro agencies, the pandemic also suppressed resistance and meaningful public participation in any form during the final phase of the regulatory process. Then under cover of the pandemic, with all this economic despair and hospitals full with COVID-19 patients, the pipeline becomes an economic lifesaver. For whom? Not those of us who live up north! And it was all shoved through at the end of the Trump administration. The now-$3.7 billion, 337-mile pipeline through Minnesota will cross more than 200 water ecosystems, including the Mississippi River twice, source of drinking water for millions of people. The biting irony about Line 3 is that Enbridge is using Minnesota largely as a pass-through state to flush Line 3 oil to foreign users — not Minnesota consumers, despite what many Line 3 supporters still believe. Probably because in 2018 alone, Enbridge spent $11 million in lobbying (and contributions) to the state, cities, counties, our often gullible Legislature and the Public Utilities Commission (PUC). A big part of Enbridge spending was creating an expensive but phony grass-roots — or “astro-turf” — front called “Minnesotans for Line 3,” a marketing campaign that was eventually exposed for the Enbridge-funded sham that it is.

'A Climate Time Bomb': 370+ Groups Urge Biden to Immediately Halt Line 3 Pipeline -A diverse coalition of more than 370 environmental and tribal rights organizations demanded Monday that President Joe Biden act immediately to halt construction of Enbridge's Line 3 pipeline, a multi-billion-dollar crude oil project that the groups called "an urgent threat" to Minnesota waters and the global climate. In a letter (pdf), the coalition representing more than 10 million people in the U.S. and Canada urged Biden to "take swift action to revoke the Line 3 tar sands oil pipeline's permits and stop its construction," pointing to the president's January decision to pull the plug on the Keystone XL pipeline as a model for future action. "We urge you to direct the Army Corps of Engineers to immediately reevaluate and suspend or revoke the Line 3 project's Clean Water Act Section 404 permit," the groups wrote. "Additionally, we urge you to revoke or amend Line 3's presidential permit, as you did for Keystone XL, to make it clear that the permit does not authorize this massive expansion." "Line 3 is a threat to water, Indigenous rights, and our global climate," the groups warned, "and its rushed construction in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic is an extreme danger to Minnesotan communities and energy workers alike." With the approval of the state government, Enbridge—a Canada-based energy giant—began construction of the Minnesota portion of its Line 3 replacement project in December despite vocal opposition from Indigenous leaders, who warned the pipeline endangers local waters and tribal lands. If completed, the pipeline would have the capacity to transport more than 750,000 barrels of crude oil per day along a more than 1,000-mile route stretching from Alberta, Canada to Wisconsin, crossing hundreds of lakes and rivers along the way.

Shelter reports assaults, harassment linked to Line 3 pipeline workers - -- Multiple people allegedly assaulted by workers on Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline in northern Minnesota have sought help from a nonprofit shelter near the construction, according to state government documents obtained by the Reformer through a public records request. Violence Intervention Project in Thief River Falls has seen an increase in calls for service and heard reports of sexual harassment at local businesses since pipeline construction started in December, according to the documents. “We can all agree everyone should be treated respectfully and expect that they can live and work in a safe environment. We are taking these claims very seriously and have an investigation underway,” Enbridge wrote in a statement provided to the Reformer. The assaults and reports of harassment were described in a request for reimbursement from Enbridge’s public safety fund, submitted last month by the anti-violence and anti-human trafficking nonprofit Violence Intervention Project. State permits for pipeline construction stipulated that Enbridge had to create the fund to cover some law enforcement costs and anti-human trafficking efforts associated with the project. Violence Intervention Project requested roughly $250 for hotel rooms for two women allegedly assaulted by pipeline workers. The nonprofit offers hotel rooms for victims when its emergency shelter is full. Finding hotel rooms has been increasingly difficult as pipeline workers fill up local lodging, said Staci Reay, executive director. The cost of hotel rooms has doubled in recent months, she wrote in the reimbursement request. In addition to the assaults, Violence Intervention Project staff members’ daughters have reported being sexually harassed at a gas station near the “Enbridge campground” — where some pipeline workers stay — and receiving sexually explicit messages on their phones when they’re near the gas station, Reay wrote in the request. At a local restaurant, women workers have been moved to the kitchen to avoid harassment from men during their shifts, the request says.

 North Dakota gas plant to pay $195K after alleged Clean Water Act violations — Alleged violations of the Clean Water Act at the Hess Corp. gas plant here have resulted in the company agreeing to pay a $195,000 settlement, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Thursday, March 11. The EPA inspected the western North Dakota gas plant in 2015 and found problems with its ability to contain potential spills of hazardous substances, such as oil, as well as inadequate plans for preventing spills. Hess has since remedied the problems, the EPA said in a statement. Spills from the plant could impact an unnamed tributary of Paulsen Creek, which is a tributary to the White Earth River. The EPA’s analysis shows that a worst-case spill from the plant could extend 61 miles to White Earth Bay on Lake Sakakawea. "Adequate spill prevention and response plans include important requirements and measures that protect public health and the environment," said Suzanne Bohan, director of EPA Region 8’s Enforcement and Compliance Assurance Division. The $195,000 penalty will go to the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, a fund that federal agencies use to respond to oil and hazardous substance spills.

PSC sets hearing for pipeline project in McKenzie County --– The North Dakota Public Service Commission will hold a public hearing on March 22, regarding a proposal to covert an existing pipeline to a transmission line and construct a new portion of pipeline in McKenzie County. Bridger Pipeline LLC is proposing to convert about 27 miles of existing pipeline from a crude oil gathering line to a transmission line, along with constructing about 2.4 miles of new eight-inch crude pipeline. No new installations will be required to convert the existing line. Maximum capacity of the pipeline will be 25,000 to 50,000 barrels per day. Estimated cost of the project is $21 million. The project would transport crude oil from an existing terminal at Johnson’s Corner to Bridger’s existing Wilson Station, about 7 miles south of Watford City. The hearing will be held at 8 a.m. in Teddy’s Residential Suites, Watford City. View the hearing online: https://psc.nd.gov/public/meetings/live.php or by phone at 1-888-585-9008, Room Code 259-316-322. Testimony can be given in person during the hearing or by phone by calling 328-4081 to be placed on a list. Following the testimony by the company on March 22, the commission will call back individuals on the list for testimony. Documents or photographs for reference should be provided in advance to ndpsc@nd.gov with a note expressing the intended use.

DAPL has reached a crucial crossroads. Here’s a guide to North Dakota's bitter pipeline dispute | INFORUM— In the last four years, the Dakota Access Pipeline has become a defining conflict, not only in North Dakota but for a national reckoning over America’s climate and energy future. But in the years since the smoke of protest clashes near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation has cleared, the pipeline dispute has carried on more quietly, with many of the biggest decisions being hashed out in courtrooms in Washington, D.C. With a new president in the White House, DAPL backers and opponents alike have felt that the embattled project may be at another decisive moment. But after a tumultuous year for the pipeline, what has changed, and what is still undecided? If you haven’t followed every twist and turn in the federal courts, we're here to catch you up with a guide to the latest in the years-long pipeline saga.

Weather woes cause Bakken oil production to fall - High winds led to power outages in parts of the Bakken in January, causing oil production to fall, the state’s top regulator said Thursday upon releasing North Dakota’s latest oil figures. The state's daily crude output for January was 1.147 million barrels, a 4% drop from December. Oil data reported to the state lags by several months. “We had a day of 90 mph winds in the oil patch, so electric power was lost through significant portions of oil and gas fields,” State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said. “It took about 10 days to fully restore the power.” The outages knocked about 50,000 barrels per day offline during that time, he said. North Dakota Pipeline Authority Director Justin Kringstad said February could be “another tough month.” Western North Dakota faced bitterly cold temperatures for a number of days, as well as blackouts caused by extreme cold in the southern United States. The U.S. oil pricing benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, has risen above $60 per barrel, where it sat at the start of 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic hit and sent prices crashing. Experts view the current price as a blip and expect it to drop as the year progresses, Helms said. As a result, he does not anticipate companies drilling a significantly greater amount in the Bakken than already planned. Instead, they are likely to bring any remaining wells idled during the pandemic back online, in addition to wells that were drilled during the pandemic but never fracked due to poor economics, he said. Natural gas production fell by just over 1% during January, to 2.848 billion cubic feet per day, and flaring figures held steady. Statewide, oil companies captured 94% of the gas they produced and burned off the rest. North Dakota is meeting its 91% gas capture target that aims to reduce wasteful flaring that results at times from a lack of pipeline and processing infrastructure.

 Plan to allow thousands of California oil wells faces vote (AP) — A plan to fast-track drilling of thousands of new oil and gas wells over the next 15 years in California’s prime oil patch was approved Monday by Kern County officials over objections by environmental groups. The Kern County Board of Supervisors voted 5-0 to approve a revised ordinance supported by the influential petroleum industry that creates a blanket environmental impact report to approve as many as 2,700 new wells a year. The revision was necessary after a state appeals court ruled last year that a 2015 ordinance violated the California Environmental Quality Act by not fully evaluating or disclosing environmental damage that could occur from drilling. New drilling permits were not issued while the county returned to the drawing board. County Planning Director Lorelei Oviatt said the new plan, which now fills 72 binders of documents, made 87 revisions, including creating larger buffers between homes and wells, muffling noise during drilling and putting a stricter limit on the number of new wells. The 2015 ordinance would have allowed up to 72,000 wells, but with a lower cap on annual approvals, that number is now reduced to about 43,000 new wells in the 20-year period ending in 2035. “What we project is the worst case scenario on many issues,” Oviatt said, adding that actual permit numbers in recent years were below the cap. Hundreds of people spoke by phone in favor of or against the ordinance or in voicemails played during a daylong public hearing livestreamed from the board’s Bakersfield chambers. Petroleum producers, oil company workers and industry and business groups spoke in favor of the measure, saying it would support high-paying jobs and produce oil under some of the most stringent environmental laws, instead of relying on dirtier imports. Catherine Reheis-Boyd, president of Western States Petroleum Association, said the group supported the plan because it provided certainty by streamlining the process even though it had “introduced many new restrictive and costly requirements and mitigation measures.” Environmentalists, residents and one farmer opposed the ordinance, saying it would clear the way to rubber stamp permits and does not address concerns spelled out by a unanimous 5th District Court of Appeal in Fresno.

'Kern runs on oil': as California confronts climate crisis, one county is ready to drill -- Kern county, which sprawls more than 8,000 square miles, connecting the Sierra Nevada slopes and the Mojave Desert to the counties on the Central Coast, is the oil capital of California. Thecounty produces about 70% of the state’s oil and more than 90% of its natural gas – and it has plans to ramp up production.This week the county approved an ordinance that would allow thousands of new wells to be drilled over the next 15 years. The decision comes despite deep opposition from local farmers and environmental groups, and it puts the county directly at odds with a state that has branded itself as a trailblazer on climate and set ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.In doing so, Kern has become a microcosm of a debate happening across America – and around the world – about how to tackle the climate crisis in communities that are built on fossil fuels.“Kern county runs on oil,” as the county chairman, Phillip Peters, concisely puts it.The debate has been going on for years, according to Ethan Elkind, a director at the Center for Law, Energy and the Environment at University of California, Berkeley, School of Law. “What you are seeing here is the main oil and gas producing county in California is going one direction and the state is trying to go a different direction,” he explains, “and it’s so far unwilling to override the county on the issue of local oil and gas production. It’s a complicated problem. Kern is also a leader in renewable energy production, accounting for roughly 25% of California’s supply, but officials argue there is not yet enough revenue from the new industries. For Kern, a county where nearly 20% live below the poverty line, expanding oil production means expanding the budget. “This is a fiscal imbalance that has to be resolved before you start talking about a just transition,” said Lorelei Oviatt, the director of the Kern county planning and natural resources department, during Monday’s vote to approve the new ordinance. “We are looking at the difference between $1.5m a year and $80m a year. Until that is resolved, the idea of banning fossil fuel extraction does not seem realistic.” Roughly one in seven workers in Kern are employed by the industry or tied to it. A county analysis done last year found that the oil and gas industry funded the county to the tune of almost $200m a year. Roughly half of that, $103m, went to Kern county schools.

 Not A Fracking Frenzy: What The New Shale Oil Boom Will Look Like - Moving into the next boom time for the domestic U.S. oil and gas business doesn’t necessarily mean you will be repeating the outcomes of the last one. That’s a point of confusion my previous piece from last week - “The Next U.S. Oil And Gas Boom Suddenly Looms On The Horizon” - appears to have created.One reader pointed out that Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum OXY -1.1%, had told last week’s CERAWeek conference that she didn’t think the U.S. industry would ever get back to producing 13 million barrels of oil per day. That’s where, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), total U.S. production peaked back in November/December of 2019, before 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic dawned and threw the industry into its deepest depression in 35 years. It’s a risky proposition to ever say “never” where the the oil industry is concerned, given its 170-year penchant for pretty much always surprising the experts. But I would agree that this nascent new boom does not currently appear likely to create a replay of the 2017-2019 boom, with its 1,100 active rig counts, drilling and fracking bonanzas, crowded highways in the Permian/Delaware Basin, small towns playing host to massive “man camps,” low profits and poor returns on investments. That was a classic production boom in which a series of major new resource plays had simultaneously formed, creating a natural competition among upstream companies to acquire prime acreage positions at often wildly exorbitant per-acre costs and begin the exploitation process. But that initial leasing/exploitation phase that has always characterized any new play area in the business had largely already been completed when last year’s bust hit in earnest, as the Permian/Delaware region had already moved well into the development and infrastructure buildout phase. Other oily shale basins like the Eagle Ford, the Bakken and the DJ Basin are more mature than the Permian, and with no new shale formation discoveries in recent years, the days of the classic leasing/exploitation booms appear to be in the rear view mirror, at least where U.S. shale development is concerned.

Marin County officials investigating oil spill - Officials in Marin County are looking into a potential oil spill from a grounded boat at Dillon Beach. The incident happened early Saturday morning when the 90-foot vessel, the American Challenger, was being towed to Sausalito. The Coast Guard saw the ship become grounded on rocks near Estero de San Antonio. Officials say that overflights saw a light sheen from the ship, but it is unknown if the fuel tanks were damaged in any way. Multiple county agencies, including state environmental officials, are investigating the incident.

 Coast Guard says it has concluded tracking Alaska oil spill (AP) — The Coast Guard said it has concluded its monitoring of a diesel fuel leak caused by a fishing boat that sank in Alaska. A 52-foot seiner was reported to have sunk Feb. 27 about three miles southeast of Sitka, the Coast Guard said. About 1,550 gallons of diesel fuel and oily water mixture were removed from the vessel’s fuel tanks, the Coast Guard said. An additional 275 gallons of oil were recovered from the water. The residue was transferred and will be disposed of properly, according to the Coast Guard. “After Hanson Maritime removed the fuel from the vessel’s fuel tanks, and removed the oiled fishing net, all significant threats from the Haida Lady have been removed or mitigated,” “We will continue to work with the owner and our Port partners to monitor the vessel.” The Coast Guard said that the effects on the environment were currently unknown.

Biden administration to launch review of future of federal oil leasing program  (Reuters) - The U.S. Interior Department announced Tuesday it will launch its review of the federal oil and gas leasing program on March 25, a key step that will determine whether the Biden administration will permanently halt new leases on federal land and water. The review will kick off with a public forum on oil and gas leasing on federal land and water, with participants representing industry, environmental conservation and justice groups, labor and others, and commence an online comment period. This input would inform an interim report to be released in early summer outlining next steps and recommendations on the future of the program and what can be done to reform how leases are managed, how much revenue should go to taxpayers and other issues. Biden, a Democrat, in January signed an executive order pausing new oil and gas drilling leases on federal lands in what is widely viewed as the first step to delivering on a permanent ban promised during his presidential campaign and has triggered heavy criticism from the oil industry and Republican lawmakers. Interior did not comment on how long the leasing pause would last. “The federal oil and gas program is not serving the American public well,” said Laura Daniel-Davis, principal deputy assistant secretary of land and minerals management. “This forum will help inform the Department’s near-term actions to restore balance on America’s lands and waters and to put our public lands’ energy programs on a more sound and sustainable conservation, fiscal and climate footing.”

U.S. senators introduce bipartisan oil and gas leasing reform bill - (Reuters) - Two U.S. senators on Wednesday said they have introduced a bipartisan bill aimed at boosting taxpayer returns from federal oil and gas leasing, the latest in a string of moves in Washington seeking to reform drilling on public lands. The bill, authored by Senators Jacky Rosen, a Democrat from Nevada, and Chuck Grassley, a senior Republican from Iowa, would increase the minimum bid price per acre during lease auctions and raise the royalty rate companies must pay on oil and gas produced from the leases. The Biden administration said on Tuesday it would launch a review of federal oil and gas leasing later this month to address widespread criticism that the program is not yielding adequate public revenue as well as contributing to climate change. While the bill proposed on Wednesday would not deliver on President Joe Biden’s campaign promise to stop issuing new leases to fight global warming, it could be applied to existing leaseholders if passed into law. The legislation’s backing by Grassley could be critical to winning support for the reforms in the closely-divided Senate. Similar bills introduced in the House last week did not include any Republican sponsors. Like the House bills, the Senate bill would increase royalty rates for onshore development for the first time in a century to 18.75% from 12.5%, bringing them in line with those paid by offshore drillers. It would also raise the minimum bid for federal acreage to $5 an acre from $2 and lift other fees and costs. “Big Oil continues to take advantage of low royalty rates on federal lands,” Grassley said in a statement. “Congress has not addressed this issue for over 100 years and since then, these oil companies have deprived the Treasury and the American people of billions of dollars.”

Biden wants to end oil subsidies. First he has to find them -- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 -- The Biden administration has vowed to end federal subsidies to fossil fuel companies, but even supporters of the effort say it will be hard to shut off the spigot.

 The Nord Stream 2 dilemma: Why a transatlantic dispute is likely to go from very bad to even worse -A simmering geopolitical dispute over an undersea pipeline that would bring gas from Russia to Germany is widely expected to intensify in the coming weeks, with pressure building on President Joe Biden to do more to halt the nearly-complete project. If finished, the 1,230-kilometer (764-mile) Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become one of the longest offshore gas pipelines in the world. It is designed to deliver Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine. Alongside several European countries, the U.S. opposes the pipeline, calling it a "bad deal" for European energy security. Critics also argue the pipeline is not compatible with European climate goals and will most likely strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic and political influence over the region. Led by Russia's Gazprom, the state-owned gas giant has claimed Nord Stream 2 is "particularly important" at a time when Europe sees a decline in domestic gas production. Advocates of the pipeline also condemn attempts "to influence or stop the project for political reasons." A bumpy road ahead for the project includes the threat of further targeted sanctions led by the U.S., Germany's federal election in late September and an ongoing backlash over the poisoning and arrest of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. "The reason it is so geopolitically contentious is not necessarily about the pipeline or the molecules themselves. It has everything to do with timing and what it says about Europe's relationship with Russia, Germany's relationship with Russia and trans-Atlantic relations," said Kristine Berzina, a senior fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a national security advocacy group. "The pipeline will either be built or it will not be built. Germany has a role in potentially killing it. Russia is finding alternatives getting around sanctions so that it can be completed but not very much of this pipeline remains," Berzina told CNBC. The project is 94% complete, with over 1,000 kilometers of the pipeline in place and less than 150 kilometers to go before Gazprom can then turn on the taps. One potential stumbling block, analysts say, could be the prospect of a German government that's opposed to the pipeline. The next general election, due to be held on Sept. 26, will determine who will succeed Angela Merkel as the country's chancellor. The problem, however, is the project is so close to completion that September may be too late to scrap the pipeline. "We could well be done with the pipeline by September and, if the pipeline's done, the gas will flow and I think it will be especially difficult to cut off the gas once you actually finish the pipeline. So, we're at a very critical few months, weeks even, to determine whether this product is going to continue or not," Berzina said.

 Norilsk Nickel- Mining firm pays record $2bn fine over Arctic oil spill - The world's biggest producer of palladium and a leading player in nickel set aside money to cover the potential fine months before the court ruling. Print contentPrint with images and other mediaPrint text onlyPrintCancelNorilsk Nickel has confirmed it has paid Russia $US2 billion ($2.5 billion) for damage caused by a fuel spill last year which caused the country's worst Arctic environmental disaster. The leak of 21,000 tonnes of diesel into rivers and subsoil from a rusty-looking storage tank at the mining firm's Norilsk power plant in Siberia angered Russian President Vladimir Putin. Norilsk is a remote city of 180,000 situated 300km inside the Arctic Circle. It is 2,900 kilometres north-east of Moscow. The fuel and lubricants spilled into the Ambarnaya River, which feeds a lake from which springs another river that leads to the environmentally-delicate Arctic Ocean. The penalty, by far the biggest fine for environmental damage in Russia, sent a message to companies to modernise their production, Russian officials said. Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.WatchDuration: 43 seconds43s

Russia reports oil spill at processing station in Far East -- The emergency ministry of Russia’s far eastern Amur region on Sunday reported an oil spill at an oil processing station but said the spill has been contained. The second stage of Russia's East Siberia - Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is working as usual, the ministry added. Oil pipeline monopoly Transneft and the Russian emergency ministry's task force are tackling the accident, the ministry said, without disclosing further detail. The scale of the spill was not immediately clear. Meanwhile, a fire broke out on Russia’s Ob river in Siberia on Saturday due to an accident on an underwater pipeline, Russia’s Rosprirodnadzor state environment watchdog said. Petrochemicals producer Sibur said the fire near the city of Nizhnevartovsk in the oil-rich region of Yugra was quickly localised and that there was no risk to local people or the environment. The accident occurred on a pipeline carrying light hydrocarbons, it said in a statement. Large flames could be seen from a distance belching up smoke into the night sky with snow in the foreground in footage circulated by the RIA news agency.

Burst pipeline causes oil spill at Gazprom Neft field in Siberia(Reuters) - A burst pipeline at an oilfield operated by a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom Neft has led to an oil spill on Monday, the subsidiary said, while the pipeline has been repaired on the same day. Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz said there is no danger to the forestry or water bodies from the spill. RIA news agency, citing the local branch of the emergency services earlier on Tuesday as saying, that oil spilled over an area of 1,100 square metres The incident occurred at the Yarainerskoye oilfield in the Yamal-Nenets region of western Siberia. The emergency services said no oil was spilled into any bodies of water and that clear-up operation had begun.

Gantz says no evidence found so far that oil spill was deliberate - Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Friday said that there was currently no evidence to conclude that the oil spill off Israel’s coast that polluted most of the country’s beaches was a deliberate act of “environmental terrorism.” Speaking to supporters of his Blue and White party, Gantz was asked about Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel’s assertion that Iran deliberately caused the spill of Israel’s coast. “I can’t completely rule out that it was deliberate, but at this stage, we can’t determine that it was done on purpose,” Gantz said. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories Free Sign Up Israeli TV reported Thursday that Israel’s security establishment is investigating the alleged Iranian link to the oil spill. Defense Minister Benny Gantz during a visit to the Druze village of Julis in northern Israel, February 23, 2021 (David Cohen/Flash90)The network said the Environmental Protection Ministry had handed over its report on the matter to security bodies, which were reviewing its findings. Sources in the defense establishment, however, were quoted as saying there was no indication the spill was deliberate. The report added that Israel’s intelligence apparatus has now also been recruited to look further into the claim of Iranian sabotage. A Libyan-owned ship, the Emerald, was smuggling crude oil from Iran to Syria at the time of the spill, the Environmental Protection Ministry said in a statement Thursday, citing satellite images by the TankerTrackers monitoring group. The ship has since returned to Iran and is currently anchored there. In an interview with Channel 12 on Thursday evening, Gamliel again insisted, without providing proof, that the spill constituted an Iranian terror attack on Israel. “There are people who do not look at the risks properly,” she said when challenged on her claim, pointing the finger at Opposition Leader Yair Lapid and saying that “only Netanyahu knows how to deal with the Iranian threat properly.” The environmental group Greenpeace blasted Gamliel for her claims, saying the assertion of a terror attack “is outrageous and factually baseless at this stage.” The group said that in making the claim, the minister “is minimizing the well-known and widespread phenomenon of marine pollution by ship oil spills. The minister’s conduct on the matter smells of electioneering and an attempt to score political points over an ecological disaster.”

 Vessel with 130 tonnes of oil runs aground off Mauritius - Mauritius has deployed its coastguard and armed forces after a Chinese-flagged trawler carrying 130 tonnes of oil ran aground off the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. It is the second shipwreck in less than a year off Mauritius after a tanker struck a reef in July last year with 1,000 tonnes of fuel leaking in the country’s worst environmental disaster. The captain of the Lurong Yuan Yu issued distress calls late on Sunday afternoon and sent up flares after becoming stranded off Pointe-aux-Sables, in the northwest of the main island not far from the capital Port Louis. On Monday, Fisheries Minister Sudheer Maudhoo said divers had found “no leak, no breach” in the hull of the ship and that efforts would be made to safely remove the fuel from the hold. “The pumping operation will start tomorrow, and will last four to five days. The authorities will also try to refloat the fishing vessel,” he said. The trawler carries 130 tonnes of fuel oil and five tonnes of lubricants, according to authorities. Traces of oil earlier spotted around the vessel were not “heavy oil” but possibly lubricants, he said. Drone footage showed dark patches in the Indian Ocean waters near the boat. Residents told the AFP news agency they saw fuel lapping at the shore. Floating containment lines have been deployed as a precaution while the coastguard and soldiers have been mobilised.

  Shell says Nigeria Delta oil spill dropped by 40% in 2020 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell said on Thursday the volume of crude oil spills caused by sabotage in Nigeria’s oil-rich Delta dropped by 40% in 2020 to 1,400 tonnes.The total number of major spills caused by theft and sabotage also dropped to 122 incidents in 2020 from 156 incidents the previous year, Shell said in its annual report. Shell is the operator of Nigeria main onshore oil and gas joint venture SPDC which has struggled for years to contain spills in the Delta caused due to operational incidents, theft and sabotage.

Gas Imports Surge As China Sees Coldest Winter In Decades - Natural gas imports to China jumped by 17.4 percent on the year in the first two months of the year to 28.68 billion cubic meters thanks to the coldest winter in decades, according to Platts data. The harsh winter in Asia drove a huge spike in demand for natural gas in the region, which led to a surge in spot market LNG prices. Now, this demand isretreating, and prices are down to more normal levels.China is among the world’s top natural gas importers, along with Japan and South Korea, and therefore a prime target for gas exporters. PetroChina, for example, doubled the amount of Russian gas it receives via the Power of Siberia pipeline to 28.8 million cu m daily over the first two months of the year. Sinopec, for its part, ordered 30 cargos of liquefied natural gas for the period to make sure there was an adequate supply of the fuel.China is dependent on imports for a solid portion of its gas consumption, so the country is making an effort to also boost domestic production to reduce this dependence. Last year, despite the pandemic, it made progress in that respect, with natural gas production jumping 15 percent on the year, according to Fitch Ratings. The agency noted domestic production was likely to continue growing thanks to robust demand and efforts to decarbonize the Chinese economy.Yet self-sufficiency in gas is still a dream—and it may remain a dream. China has massive shale gas reserves but exploiting them is challenging because of the complex geology of the deposits and difficulties in attracting foreign investors who could help fund such an endeavor.This means China will remain a huge natural gas importer for the observable future, driving intense competition in the energy industry.

Column: Oil price spikes and permanent consumption losses (Reuters) - Promises by U.S. shale producers to pursue a more restrictive approach to capital investment and production seem to have emboldened Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ to test the room for higher oil prices. If shale firms respond to higher prices and revenues by returning capital to lenders and investors, rather than increasing output, there may be an opportunity for OPEC+ to let prices rise without losing market share. “Drill, baby, drill is gone for ever. Shale companies are now more focused on dividends,” the Saudi energy minister said in an interview on March 4. “It’s the shale companies which are themselves changing. They have had their fair share of adventure and now they are listening to the call of their shareholders.” The kingdom’s interest in testing support for higher prices comes when many investors are expecting a strong upward cycle, or even supercycle, in oil and other commodity prices. Strong economic growth after the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, is expected to accelerate consumption growth for oil and other commodities. At the same time, production of oil and other commodities will be constrained by lack of investment during the price slump in 2020 and early 2021 as well as the newfound enthusiasm for “capital discipline”. In the case of oil, some analysts are forecasting one last supercycle over the next few years before widespread deployment of electric vehicles in the late 2020s and through the 2030s starts to hit consumption. Bond investors, too, are anticipating a period of above-average inflation, if not a commodity supercycle, as governments and central banks try to reverse employment and income losses stemming from the epidemic. Yields for U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities imply traders expect an average all-items U.S. inflation rate of about 2.2% over the next decade. Expected 10-year inflation rates peaked at 2.25-2.5% during the 2007/08 commodity supercycle and a similar level during the period of high oil prices from 2011 through 2014. By comparison, realised consumer price inflation in the United States has averaged about 1.75% per year over the past decade. 

Top Energy Trader Vitol Says OPEC+ Has Control of Oil Market -- Oil’s surge following OPEC+’s surprise move to maintain cuts in supply shows the producers’ group is in charge of the market, Vitol Group said.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies shocked the market on Thursday when they opted to keep output curbs largely in place, belying expectations that they would pump more crude to meet rising demand. Benchmark Brent futures jumped toward $70 a barrel at the end of the week.“The market is telling us that OPEC+ have control,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said Sunday in an online forum hosted by consultant Gulf Intelligence. “We’re going to get a stock-draw that is going to accelerate through the second quarter and that’s why the market is doing what it’s doing.”Oil producers and traders were left reeling last year after the coronavirus pandemic wiped out a third of energy demand, dragging down prices. Surplus crude flooded into storage, swelling stockpiles to the point whereU.S. futures dropped below zero.OPEC+ has since implemented unprecedented production cuts, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Its decision to maintain output restrictions to support prompt prices -- the cost of barrels sold in the coming months -- indicates the group aims to cut into that mass of stored oil by undersupplying the market.Key OPEC+ member Russia previously voiced concerns that such a move would allow rival drillers in the U.S. to seize market share. Yet shale producers are unlikely to ramp up output, Muller said.“U.S. rig counts are still nowhere close to supporting the U.S. returning to anywhere like the 13 million barrels a day we closed 2019 at,” he said. Muller spoke Sunday before Saudi Arabia said it had thwarted drone and missile attacks on some of its facilities. Brent crude surged past $70 a barrel in early trading on Monday before erasing gains. Further increases in demand could still push prices higher, according to Muller.

No Roaring USA Shale Industry to Respond to OPEC+ --Even though North American production can pick up due to current price levels, there is not a roaring U.S. shale industry to respond to OPEC+ and balance out global supply. That’s according to Rystad Energy Oil Markets Analyst Louise Dickson, who made the statement in a comment sent to Rigzone on Monday. In the statement, Dickson noted that, after oil shot above $100 per barrel in 2014 and triggered the 2015-2016 downturn, U.S. shale sprang back almost immediately, but outlined that things would be different this time around. “We do not anticipate U.S. oil production to return to pre-pandemic levels of 12.8 million barrels per day (in February 2020) until the end of 2023, a much more prolonged recovery driven by capital discipline from shale drillers, as well as natural base decline,” Dickson said in the statement. In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the latest STEO at the time of writing, the EIA estimated that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11 million barrels per day in January, which it highlighted was down slightly from 11.1 million barrels per day in November. The EIA said in its February STEO that it expected production would continue to decline slightly in the coming months, reaching 10.9 million barrels per day in June. “EIA expects production from newly drilled wells will be more than offset by declining production rates at existing wells in the first half of 2021,” the EIA stated in the February STEO. “However, based on EIA’s forecast that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will remain near or higher than $50 per barrel during the forecast period, EIA expects drilling will continue to increase. As a result, production from new wells will exceed the declines from legacy wells, and overall crude oil production will increase in the second half of 2021 and in 2022,” the STEO added. According to its February STEO, the EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 11 million barrels per day in 2021 and rise to 11.5 million barrels per day in 2022. At OPEC+’s latest meeting, the group approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, excluding Russia and Kazakhstan, who will be allowed to increase production by 130,000 and 20,000 barrels per day, respectively. Saudi Arabia also decided to extend its additional voluntary cut of one million barrels per day for the month of April. Commenting on OPEC+’s move, Dickson said the group’s roll-over was far more conservative than the market expected and that traders were still pricing in the stock draws that will follow in coming months. “We do not expect the price fever to cool down, in the short-term,”

Saudi raises April crude official prices to Asia  (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer Aramco set its April official selling price (OSP) for its Arab Light crude to Asia at plus $1.40 per barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average, up $0.40 from March, according to a statement issued on Sunday. It set its Arab Light OSP to Northwest Europe at minus $2.20 per barrel against ICE Brent compared with minus $0.50 in March. The OSP to the United States was set at plus $0.95 a barrel over Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for April, $0.10 above March’s premium.

Oil Flirting With $70 Challenges World’s Economic Recovery - The spike in oil prices has focused attention on how the steady rise in energy costs is threatening to create a drag on the global economic recovery and stoking fears of inflation.After surging more than 30% this year on coordinated supply constraints by major exporters and demand returning from the depths of Covid-19 crisis, a missile attack Sunday on a key Saudi Arabian export facility sent Brent crude, the internatio nal benchmark, above $70 a barrel for the first time since January 2020.While prices have since pulled back, the impact on inflation and the overall global recovery depends on how sustained the underlying rally proves to be. For economists, the cause of higher prices is what matters, rather than the price itself. Rising energy costs on the back of strong demand normally indicate robust and resilient growth, while a surge from crimped supply could weigh on a recovery. Morgan Stanley economists estimate that oil would need to average $85 a barrel for the global oil burden to rise above longer-term averages.“For context, the global oil burden last rose above its long-term average in 2005, but with the backdrop of strong global growth, economies were able to withstand the impact of higher oil prices until 2007, when global growth momentum was already weakening and yet oil prices shot up rapidly,” the bank’s economists wrote last week.The run-up in oil prices comes against the backdrop of a global inflation debate that has heated up over the past month. With spikes in bond yields, investors continue to test policy makers, including Federal ReserveChairman Jerome Powell, on their insistence that inflation isn’t a threat this year, even with trillions of dollars of stimulus being pumped into the global economy.Oil and food costs are both bubbling, though as the two most volatile categories of consumer prices they’re easier for policy makers to look past as transitory. And while costs for homes and semiconductors also are on the rise, the prevailing trend worldwide is still one of damped price growth While energy is a prominent component of consumer-price gauges, policy makers often focus on core indexes that remove volatile components such as oil. If the run-up in prices proves to be substantial and sustained, those costs will filter through to transportation and utilities. That scenario would pressure central banks to rein in their support for the economy, though for now officials continue to stress that high unemployment will offset any inflation pressure.

Brent crude breaks $70 after Saudi Arabia's oil facilities attacked by Yemen's Houthis -International benchmark Brent crude futures jumped above $70 for the first time in more than a year on Monday, before giving back those gains to trade in the red. The surge in prices came after Saudi Arabia said its oil facilities were targeted by missiles and drones on Sunday. A Houthi military spokesman claimed responsibility for the attacks. Brent traded as high at $71.38 per barrel, the highest level since Jan. 2020, while U.S. crude futures rose to $67.98 per barrel, a level not seen since Oct. 2018. However, at 12:30 p.m. on Wall Street both contracts were in the red. Brent shed 97 cents, or 1.37%, to trade at $68.41 per barrel, while WTI was 93 cents, or 1.41%, lower at $65.16 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's ministry of energy said a petroleum tank farm at one of the world's largest oil shipping ports was attacked by a drone and a ballistic missile targeted Saudi Aramco facilities, according to state news agency SPA. Such acts of sabotage do not only target the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but also the security and stability of energy supplies to the world, and therefore, the global economy. A spokesman said neither attack caused any injury or loss of life or property, but shrapnel from the intercepted missile fell near residential areas in the city of Dhahran, SPA reported. "Such acts of sabotage do not only target the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but also the security and stability of energy supplies to the world, and therefore, the global economy," the ministry said via state media. "They affect the security of petroleum exports, freedom of world trade, and maritime traffic." Yahya Sare'e, a spokesman for Yemen's Houthis, said it carried out a "broad joint offensive operation" involving 14 drones and eight ballistic missiles. He said on Twitter that other military sites were also targeted with four drones and seven ballistic missiles, adding that "the hit was precise." "We promise the #Saudi regime painful operations as long as it continues its aggression and blockade on our country," he said in another post. A Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen's civil war in 2015 and has continued to fight against the Houthis in what is seen as a proxy war with Iran. The Houthis have reportedly stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. The Biden administration last month said it would remove the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen from the Foreign Terrorist Organization and Specially Designated Global Terrorist lists, according to NBC News. John Driscoll, director at JTD Energy Services, told CNBC that the primary effect of the attacks is psychological. "They serve as a reminder that the Mideast is vulnerable and rife with tensions and rivalries that could overheat at any time," he said in an email. However, he said the run up in prices could be short lived, noting that the Saudis said there was no significant damage to infrastructure. Driscoll also said the timing is "noteworthy," given that the U.S. took military action against Iran and Iraq targets last week. "One senses [that] lines are being drawn in the sand," he said.

Oil Reverses Gains Following Attack on Key Saudi Crude Terminal --Oil slipped in London as the dollar strengthened and investors shrugged off an attack on the world’s largest crude terminal in Saudi Arabia. Global benchmark Brent futures earlier surged above $71 a barrel, the highest since January 2020, before falling as much as 1.5%. The assault on a storage tank farm at the Ras Tanura terminal on Sunday was intercepted, Saudi Arabia said, and oil output appeared to be unaffected. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.5% on Monday, reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.  .A much stronger U.S. dollar is “likely adding pressure to oil prices,” . “The recent trend higher in the dominant currency is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.”Oil has surged more than 30% this year as OPEC+ keeps a lid on production and demand is seen recovering with economies emerging from the coronavirus crisis. The rally quickened last week after the producer alliance made a surprise pledge to leave output steady in April, prompting a raft of investment banks to raise their price forecasts. Forward oil prices point toward further strength, with the Brent strip for 2022 rising as much as over $62 a barrel Monday to its highest intraday level since April 2019.Brent’s rally north of $70 earlier Monday may cause a headache for Asian refiners, which are warning that the rapid surge and spike in volatility will hurt demand and whittle away still-tight processing margins. Saudi Arabia has also boosted its official selling prices to buyers in the region for April.Saudi Arabia said the Ras Tanura site on the country’s Gulf coast was targeted by a drone from the sea. The terminal is capable of exporting about 6.5 million barrels a day -- almost 7% of demand -- and, as such, is one of the world’s most protected facilities. It’s the most serious attack on Saudi oil installations since a key processing facility and two oil fields came under fire in September 2019.

Oil logs first loss in 4 sessions, as buying after attack on Saudi oil facilities fades - Oil futures pulled back Monday, posting their first loss in four sessions after an attack on Saudi oil facilities briefly lifted global benchmark Brent crude prices above $70 a barrel for the first time since early last year.Warplanes from a Saudi-led coalition dropped bombs on Yemen’s rebel-held capital San’a on Sunday, following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil and military facilities. The coalition blamed the administration of President Joe Biden for the attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels after a decision to remove them from U.S. terror lists.Saudi Arabia, however, said its largest oil export terminal at Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf was unscathed after a drone attack, S&P Global Platts reported Sunday.“Production appears to have been unaffected,” though the market’s concern “seems to be more the frequency of attacks rather than their severity,” said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss, in a Monday note.The price of the front-month May Brent crude BRNK21, +0.01% contract fell $1.12 or 1.6%, to settle at $68.24 a barrel, after hitting a high of $71.38 a barrel on Sunday. It was the first time the global benchmark traded above $70 since January 2020, according to FactSet data. April West Texas Intermediate crude CLJ21, -0.70%, U.S. benchmark, lost $1.04, or 1.6%, at $65.05 a barrel after hitting a higher near $68 overnight.Both contracts are up more than 30% year to date, adding more than 7% last week following a surprise move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to rollover current production cuts through end-April. Meanwhile, prices fell despite the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities, suggesting that investors aren’t responding to supply disruptions, Cieszynski said. “This may be due to the market being well supplied, with major oil producers, who decided last week to keep production curbs in place, able to easily “backfill any disruptions.”

Oil slips below $68 as rally fizzles before U.S. supply report (Reuters) - Oil fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday in a choppy session, pressured as concerns faded of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia, which countered a pause in the dollar’s rally and prospects for tighter supply due to OPEC+ output curbs. On Monday, crude hit its highest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, a day after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi oil sites. Saudi Arabia said it thwarted the strike, however, and prices slipped as supply fears eased. Brent crude settled down 72 cents, or 1.06%, at $67.52 a barrel. The contract pulled back after trading as high as $69.33. It reached $71.38 on Monday, the highest since Jan. 8, 2020. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.04, or 1.6% to settle at $64.01 a barrel. The contract hit its highest on Monday since October 2018. In post-settlement trade, U.S. crude extended losses. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week, according to trading sources, citing data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute released after settlement. Crude inventories rose by 12.8 million barrels in the week to March 5, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a build of 816,000 barrels, sources said. [L1N2L72S5] “This is more of the same as refineries remain shut down,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures group, speaking after the API data was released. Last week’s record decline in U.S. inventories came after the shutdown of Gulf Coast refineries due to the recent winter storm in Texas. “The market seems to be softening on those concerns. It’s had an incredible run, and it’s due for a correction,” Flynn said.

WTI Holds Losses After Huge Surprise Crude Build  --After surging to its highest since 2018 (on Saudi oil terminal explosions), oil prices have tumbled for the second straight day with WTI back below $64 as EIA forecast U.S. crude oil production in 2022 at 12.02m b/d, up from the 11.53m b/d projected in February.“Then we had the OPEC surprise and the Saudi attack, triggering the last key surge where now a lot of the recovery and demand expectations due to the vaccines’ success has already been priced in.”After last week's utter chaos in the inventory data (due to Texas storm impacts), this week is likely to be just as noisy as things switched back on.API

• Crude +12.792mm (-833k exp)
• Cushing +295k
• Gasoline -8.499mm (-4.167mm exp)
• Distillates -4.796mm (-3.667mm exp)

And as expected, this week's data is chaotic too - a huge crude build for the second week in a row and major product draws... WTI hovered just below $64 ahead of the print, dropped and popped after but maintained its losses... Further price gains from output cuts “have pretty much run their course,” Doug King, RCMA Group Chairman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.“You can tighten as much as you want, but if you destroy the refining margins and product demand isn’t there, then effectively you don’t really get much further up the chain.”In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said that while the price Brent oil, the global benchmark, is currently high due to OPEC+ supply restrictions, it expects it to average US$58 per barrel in the second half of the year.

WTI Extends Gains Despite 2nd Week Of Massive Crude Builds, Gasoline Demand Spikes  --Oil prices are higher this morning, despite last night's API-reported massive crude build, but trading has been chaotic to say the least amid Russia production headlines and 'fake' CPI data. Aditionally, an improved OECD forecast for global economic recovery helped buoy crude prices."When it comes to lifting market sentiment, there is very little that can rival an upgrade to the post-COVID economic recovery," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM.We suspect the effects of the storm driven demand and production issues will remain in this week's data.  DOE:

• Crude +13.789mm (-833k exp)
• Cushing +526k
• Gasoline -11.869mm (-4.167mm exp)
• Distillates -5.504mm (-3.667mm exp)

After last week's chaotic swings in inventories (and API's overnight), with crude stocks rising by the most on record, this week is expected to see some normalization. It didn't... crude stocks soared as product stocks plunged once again...Graphs Source: BloombergThese two weeks have pushed up US crude stocks to their highest since early December... Gasoline demand jumped significantly as more states reopened (and Texas thawed out) While higher prices are expected to bring more U.S. supplies back online, US crude production has merely rebounded to pre-storm levels... WTI puked briefly this morning amid headline on Russian production but that was panic-bid right back up on clarifications. But prices were tumbling ahead of the official inventory data then reversed after the print - preumably on the gasoline draw?!

 Oil rises as recovery optimism outweighs U.S. inventory build --Oil prices rose on Wednesday despite a large jump in U.S. crude inventories in the aftermath of last month's Texas winter storm. An upbeat forecast for global economic recovery supported prices. Brent crude gained 38 cents, or 0.56%, to settle at 467.90 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 43 cents, or 0.67%, higher at $64.44 per barrel. U.S. crude oil stocks jumped 13.8 million barrels last week, far exceeding forecasts for a 816,000-barrel rise, as the nation's oil industry continued to feel the effects of a winter storm mid-February that stalled refining and forced production shut-ins in Texas. Producers appear to be coming back online faster than refiners, swelling inventories, analysts said. Crude production rose to 10.9 million barrels per day, rebounding to near levels before the freeze, while refinery utilization rates jumped 13 percentage points, but that only brought overall capacity use to 69%, far below seasonal averages for this time of year. "This could be a little bit of a headwind for prices because the production number is coming up faster than people thought," The pandemic-hit global economy is set to rebound with 5.6% growth this year and expand 4% next year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said in its interim economic outlook. Its previous forecast had been for growth of 4.2% this year. "When it comes to lifting market sentiment, there is very little that can rival an upgrade to the post-COVID economic recovery," . Oil prices have been steadily rallying for several months as OPEC+ - consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - kept supply curbs in place. After briefly touching $70 per barrel earlier this week, Brent crude has edged off. OPEC+ agreed last week to largely maintain production cuts in April. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said that the kingdom and Russia were keen for fair oil prices and will continue their cooperation in the framework of the OPEC+ group.

Oil prices rise on economic outlook, drawdown in fuel stocks(Reuters) - Crude oil prices rose on Thursday as vaccine rollouts bolstered the economic outlook and U.S. fuel stocks fell sharply, although gains were capped by a surge in crude oil inventories after last month’s Texas storm. Brent crude oil futures for May rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.30 a barrel by 0105 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April was up 48 cents, or 0.7%, at $64.92. “Gasoline stocks fell... (which) provided the bullish offset and eventually sent oil prices higher on the strong demand for end products, hence an economic recovery,” said Stephen Innes, Chief Global Markets Strategist at Axi. “Given the powerful signals from the U.S. re-opening narrative, it still suggests that the path of least resistance for oil prices is higher.” U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 11.9 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 231.6 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, compared with expectations for a 3.5 million-barrel drop. Crude inventories, however, rose by 13.8 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 498.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 816,000-barrel rise, as the nation’s oil industry continued to feel the effects of a winter storm mid-February that stalled refining and forced production shut-ins in Texas. Globally, stocks also remain ample with crude oil in storage at major land and sea hubs rising last week, according to analysts and ship trackers. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Wednesday to one of the largest economic stimulus measures in American history, a sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that gives President Joe Biden his first major victory in office. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister on Wednesday said the kingdom would take deterrent action to protect its oil facilities, following attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement on energy sites

 Oil prices climb 2% as dollar slips  (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday on a weaker dollar and expectations that a crude glut would be short-lived due to a steep fall in U.S. fuel stocks and a resumption of operations by Texas refiners.Brent crude oil futures for May settled up $1.73, or 2.6%, to $69.63 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April ended the session $1.58 or 2.5% higher, at $66.02.“The complex has recovered back to above yesterday’s highs with major assistance from a weak dollar/strong equity combo,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates said.“We feel that the energy complex could remain in a stall well into next week with WTI bounded roughly by parameters of about $63 to $68 before any renewed up-spike.”U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as concern about a strong pick-up in inflation eased and focus turned to an auction of 30-year government debt. The dollar fell for a third straight day and was at its lowest level in a week against a basket of currencies.

Oil settles near $70/bbl on hopes of recovering demand  (Reuters) - Oil settled near $70 a barrel on Friday, supported by production cuts by major oil producers and optimism about a demand recovery in the second half of the year. Benchmark Brent settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.22 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also ended down 41 cents to $65.61 a barrel. Brent and U.S. crude ended the week roughly flat after prices touched a 13-month high on Monday, following seven straight weeks of gains. “Demand for risky assets such as oil continues to be buoyed by the White House relief package and an almost daily flow of optimistic vaccine headlines,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast a stronger oil demand recovery this year, weighted to the second half. OPEC, Russia and its allies decided last week to maintain its output curbs almost unchanged. U.S. drillers are also holding back, cutting the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time since November, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. “The stronger-than-expected rebound in the second half of this year implies that the global economy and hence oil demand outlook is close to shaking off its COVID woes,” 

Oil ends lower, contributing to a loss for the week  Oil futures ended lower Friday, pulling back a day after a rally led by optimism over U.S. gasoline demand helped push the global crude benchmark to its highest close since May 2019.West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery fell 41 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $65.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude also declined by 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.22 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after posting on Thursday (link) the highest finish for a front-month contract since May 28, 2019.For the week, front-month U.S. benchmark crude prices finished 0.7% lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Global benchmark Brent crude lost 0.2% to snap a seven-week winning streak.Despite the decision earlier this month by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together known as OPEC+, to extend the production cuts (link)through April, "oil prices haven't spiked further this week due to the presence of substantial global oil inventory that cushions short-term imbalances," "Traders are aware that the current high price is primarily due to throttling of production by OPEC+ members and that such measures are temporary." he told MarketWatch. However, "the current price is very comfortable and quite frankly, generous, for most producers and therefore nobody wants to spoil the party."Raj also said that even though Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its voluntary output cut of one million barrels a day through April, the kingdom is "free to draw from its "massive oil storage and enjoy the uptick in oil prices.""As Saudi Arabia continues to draw oil from its storage, the physical market has been cushioned and price spikes have been dampened," News earlier this week of attacks on Saudi oil facilities (link), blamed on Iran-backed Houthi rebels, didn't provide any lasting support to oil prices."Given substantial spare capacity among all major producers at the present time, supply side concerns such as the Middle-East tensions or geo-political risks are irrelevant, since any production outage can easily be met by capacity elsewhere,"  Gasoline futures led the way higher on Thursday, with the April contract ending at a 2 1/2-year high, boosted by concerns over tightening U.S. inventories. April gasoline rose 0.6% Friday to $2.15 a gallon, settling at the highest since July 2018. It also gained 4.1% for the week. April heating oil also climbed 0.4% at $1.9675 a gallon to tally a weekly climb of 1.2%.. April natural gas settled at $2.60 per million British thermal units, down nearly 2.6% for the session and down 3.7% for the week.

 Biden and Europe allies worry Israel is preparing a substantial attack on Iran -Israel suspects Iran intentionally dispatched a ship to dump hundreds of tons of crude oil onto its beaches, the area's worst ecological disaster in decades, in revenge for the November assassination of the country's top nuclear scientist, according to Israeli officials and media.But Israeli officials tell Insider the statement from the environmental minister directly blaming Iran released Wednesday was premature as the military and intelligence services have yet to make a final determination on both Iranian culpability and the appropriate level of response to what would be the most brazen act of environmental terrorism in recent history."That statement should have never been made," a former Israeli intelligence official, who still consults for the government and therefore cannot be named, told Insider. "The IDF and Mossad are responsible for investigating attacks on the Israeli homeland, determining the responsibility and suggesting a course of action to respond. That process is underway and it is not the portfolio of the environmental minister to start wars with Iran."For the past two weeks, tons of crude oil have washed ashore on Israel and Lebanon's beaches destroying wildlife and causing ecological damage that could take years to restore, according to environmental experts. But after the minister directly accused Iran of a complex operation to drop the oil offshore, the issue took on a new dimension as fears in Washington ands Europe rose over the possibility of an Israeli response.When pressed on whether Israeli military and intelligence services suspect an Iranian operation as described by the minister - who said a Libya-flagged ship sailed from Iran to Israel and dumped the oil offshore before stopping in Syria and returning to Iran - the former official conceded that was the case.

Iranian investigator says Israel likely behind container ship attack (Reuters) - Israel is highly likely to have been behind an attack in the Mediterranean this week that damaged an Iranian container ship, an Iranian investigator said on Saturday, Iran’s media reported.The Shahr e Kord vessel was hit by an explosive object which caused a small fire, but no one on board was hurt, Iran said on Friday. Two maritime security sources said initial indications suggested the ship was intentionally targeted by an unknown source.“Considering the geographical location and the way the ship was targeted, one of the strong possibilities is that this terrorist operation was carried out by the Zionist regime (Israel),” an unnamed member of the Iranian team investigating the incident was quoted as saying by semi-official Nournews. Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz declined to comment directly about the incident when addressing a webinar on Saturday hosted by his Blue and White party, but he said Iran regularly sent weapons to its proxies in the region.

Iran cracks down on contentious pop music video with arrests (AP) — Iranian authorities have arrested multiple music producers connected to a California-based Iranian pop singer, his management company and Iranian media said Thursday, in Tehran’s latest effort to halt what it deems decadent Western behavior.The arrests come as Iranian social media has been awash with criticism of popular underground Iranian singer, “Sasy,” or Sasan Heidari Yafteh's, new music video. Called “Tehran Tokyo,” the video features actresses, including an American porn star, gyrating in kimonos and short bodycon dresses atop cars and inside bars. The clip racked up 18 million views within a week. Over the years, Sasy has become known for contentious lyrics that Iranian conservatives see as tainting the country's moral probity. In a previous song also featuring a porn actress, he instructed teenagers to take alcohol shots if they can't fall asleep and to scroll through Instagram instead of finishing their homework.

U.S. Aircraft Carrier Deploys In Mediterranean As Damascus Prepares To Push On The Northwest --The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier and its Carrier Strike Group have entered the Mediterranean Sea. This makes it, currently, the closest aircraft carrier to the Middle East. It has been quite a while since the US hasn’t had one of its super warships deployed in or near the Persian Gulf. Starting in the spring of 2019, the U.S. Navy has been publicly ordered to keep a near-constant presence in the region, as if this were something new. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that a global posture review is taking place, and it would be reconsidered whether a carrier was even needed in the region. Still, the Mediterranean Sea is quite nearby, and the removal of the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) from the Persian Gulf was a political move. It’s Lloyd Austin’s dream to have a CSG in every hotspot in the world, but resources don’t allow for that. Still, the US has the amphibious warship USS Makin Island (LHD-8) in the Persian Gulf with a detachment of F-35B fighter jets, so it still has a hefty presence. In Syria itself, as the primary US competitor, alongside Iran, Russian forces are preparing to set up a permanent military base near the city of Palmyra in the Badia Desert. This is not yet confirmed, but according to satellite photos it has a helipad as a runway. This base is likely planned to support the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) further in their push against both ISIS and Turkish proxies. On March 9th, the SAA carried out heavy shelling on the positions of Turkish proxies in the village of Jabal Al-Zawiya, in southern Idlib. Separately, Pro-Turkey opposition factions reportedly thwarted an attempt by the SAA to advance on the Qalaat front in the northern countryside of Latakia.  In the days leading up to this, the SAA has been preparing for a large push in the province of Aleppo.This is likely an attempt to form a uniform front, which can exert equal pressure along the frontline and thin the enemy’s forces to provide opportunity for a breach. Turkey and its proxies are sure to offer heavy resistance to any advance by the SAA, but so far it appears that this may not be enough.

China Slams US "Hyping Up" Threat To Taiwan After Admiral Predicts Takeover "Within 6 Years" --A top Chinese foreign ministry official has accused the Pentagon of seeking to "hype up" China's threat to Taiwan in order to further bloat military budgets and expand the US presence off China's coast.On Tuesday Admiral Phil Davidson, the top US commander over the Indo-Pacific region of operation, gave testimony on the growing China threat before a Congressional panel. He highlighted growing PLA military capabilities to "jeopardize freedoms of navigation, overflight and other lawful uses of the sea, and compromise regional peace and stability" — particularly in terms of Beijing inserting its influence and sovereignty claims over Taiwan. In response on Wednesday foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian dubbed the US naval commander's testimony as in reality an unnecessary attempt to raise fears and artificially stoke tensions over Taiwan. According to AFP, the spokesman said:"Some US people continue to use the Taiwan issue to hype up China's military threat," Zhao Lijian reportedly said."But in essence this is the US searching for a pretext to increase its military spending, expand its forces and interfere in regional affairs," he added.In particular it was Adm. Davidson's positing a timeline of China moving to take control of the democratic island within "six years" that appeared to rile Beijing. He outlined China's expansionist ambitions in the following on Tuesday:"I worry that they’re accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they’ve long said that they want to do that by 2050. I’m worried about them moving that target closer," he continued. "Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."

China launching health certificate program to facilitate international travel China launched a digital health certificate program that will detail a person’s COVID-19 vaccination history in order to facilitate international travel as more people get inoculated. Officials announced that the certificate would utilize the social media platform WeChat and include information about a user’s coronavirus and antibody test results and vaccination history, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday. Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that the certificate’s information will be encrypted in a QR code and can be verified through a public key given to authorities. The digital certificate can reportedly only be used by Chinese nationals. “China stands ready to discuss with other countries the establishment of mutual recognition mechanisms for health code information on the basis of accommodating each other’s concerns,” Zhao said at a press briefing, according to the newspaper. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said over the weekend that the program intends to use mutual verification of information like testing and vaccination data to allow people to safely travel internationally, according to Reuters. The digital certificate could end up being used as a “vaccine passport” similar to what other countries have proposed or implemented to ensure travelers have received immunization. Bahrain has initiated a certificate program confirming its users’ vaccinations, and the Group of 7 nations, including the U.S., have discussed implementing such a program. The Chinese foreign ministry released a statement obtained by the newspaper saying the nation is “actively advancing international recognition of the health certificate and has provided specific ideas, technological plans and the public key to foreign countries through diplomatic channels.” “We will actively promote the negotiations for mutual recognition,” the ministry said. It is currently unclear which countries China has discussed the program with to gain their approval, according to both news outlets.

China’s 7,500-Mile Undersea Cable to Europe Fuels Internet Feud -- An undersea cable will emerge later this year near a popular sunbathing spot in the French port of Marseille. The cable, known as Peace, will travel over land from China to Pakistan, where it heads underwater and snakes along for about 7,500 miles of ocean floor via the Horn of Africa before terminating in France. The Peace cable, which is being built by Chinese companies, will be able to transport enough data in one second for 90,000 hours of Netflix, and will largely serve to make service faster for Chinese companies doing business in Europe and Africa. “This is a plan to project power beyond China toward Europe and Africa,” says Jean-Luc Vuillemin, the head of international networks at Orange SA, the French phone company that will operate the cable’s landing station in Marseille. The project also represents a new flashpoint in the geopolitics of the internet. Huawei Technologies Co., the company at the center of a long-simmering struggle between China and the U.S., is the third-largest shareholder in Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.—the company building the cable. Huawei is also making the equipment for the Peace cable landing stations and its underwater transmission gear. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Facebook Inc. say they won’t be using Peace because they have enough capacity already. Even if they wanted to, using Peace would be hard for these companies to do, because of the U.S.-led boycott of many Chinese telecommunications equipment makers, including Huawei, for national security reasons. Undersea cables have significant strategic importance. Right now, some 400 of them carry about 98% of international internet data and telephone traffic around the world. Many of them are owned and operated by U.S. companies—helping reinforce U.S. dominance over the internet while giving a sense of security to the U.S. and its allies that may be concerned about sabotage or surveillance. The U.S. has talked up the threat from Chinese-built infrastructure. Last year, then U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged the international community to “ensure the undersea cables connecting our country to the global internet are not subverted for intelligence gathering by the People’s Republic of China at hyper scale.” The French government is prepared to stand up to additional pressure from the U.S. over the Peace cable, say people familiar with its thinking, who asked not to be named discussing national security matters. It could look to mollify the U.S. by keeping certain types of traffic off the cable, said another person. The government of French President Emmanuel Macron doesn’t want to isolate China from internet infrastructure, in part so France won’t have to “fully depend on U.S. decisions,” he said in an interview at the Atlantic Council in February. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also objected to efforts to isolate China in a Feb. 5 press conference with Macron, saying she did not think decoupling from China was “the right way to go, especially in this digital age.”

Sri Lanka to ban burqa, shut many Islamic schools, minister says  (Reuters) - Sri Lanka will ban the wearing of the burqa and shut more than a thousand Islamic schools, a government minister said on Saturday, the latest actions affecting the country’s minority Muslim population.Minister for public security Sarath Weerasekera told a news conference he had signed a paper on Friday for cabinet approval to ban the full face covering worn by some Muslim women on “national security” grounds.“In our early days Muslim women and girls never wore the burqa,” he said. “It is a sign of religious extremism that came about recently. We are definitely going to ban it.”The wearing of the burqa in the majority-Buddhist nation was temporarily banned in 2019 after the bombing of churches and hotels by Islamic militants that killed more than 250.Later that year, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, best known for crushing a decades-long insurgency in the north of the country as defence secretary, was elected president after promising a crackdown on extremism.Rajapaksa is accused of widespread rights abuses during the war, charges he denies.Weerasekera said the government plans to ban more than a thousand madrassa Islamic schools that he said were flouting national education policy.

Nine activists murdered by police in Bloody Sunday raids in the Philippines - Police in the Philippines executed nine unarmed activists, whom they accused of being “Communist terrorists,” in a series of pre-dawn raids conducted on Sunday morning. The police killings, which are now being referred to in the press as “bloody Sunday,” took place two days after President Rodrigo Duterte delivered a speech in which he instructed the military and police to “kill all communists and don’t mind human rights.” The murdered activists were all members of legal organizations in the Southern Tagalog region of Luzon. They were community organizers, union leaders, and human rights activists. The majority were killed in their own homes. The details of what happened are still emerging. The broad outline, however, is clear, and it is horrifying. Manny Asuncion was an organizer for Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (BAYAN, New Nationalist Alliance). A spokesperson for Anakbayan Southern Tagalog, a youth organization tied to BAYAN, recounted that about 30 police barged into his home at 5.30 in the morning. They ordered his wife and associate to leave. Asuncion’s wife reported that she heard about 10 shots and then saw his body “being dragged down the stairs. There was not even a stretcher.” Photos of the bloody trail left by Asuncion’s corpse featured prominently in the press. Six bullets were recovered from his body, three entered from the front and three from the back. A separate raid killed Anna Marie Evangelista and Ariel Evangelista, a couple who organized the fishing communities around Nasugbu, Batangas. Their ten-year-old son was later found by neighbors hiding under a bed in the house. The police claim that they were operating on informant tips, that the accused were “communist terrorists,” and that the warrants with which they had been issued were to search for illegal firearms and grenades.

Resurrected Politically, Lula Goes After Bolsonaro’s ‘Moronic’ Handling of Covid-19 Pandemic -In a speech Wednesday that signaled a potential presidential run, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva condemned Jair Bolsonaro, the South American country’s current far-right president, for his catastrophic mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic crisis.“This country is disorganized and falling apart because it has no government,” Lula told a crowd gathered at the metalworkers union in São Bernardo do Campo, where the 75-year-old left-wing icon’s political career began as an organizer in the 1970s.While Covid-19 has claimed the lives of nearly 270,000 people in Brazil—the world’s second-highest death toll over the past year, after the United States—Bolsonaro has consistentlyminimized the lethal threat posed by the virus.Last week, after two consecutive days of record deaths that have pushed the country’s hospital system “to the brink of collapse,” Brazil’s president told his citizens to stop “whining,” which Reuters called Bolsonaro’s “latest remarks attacking distancing measures and downplaying the gravity of the pandemic.”Standing in front of a banner that read, “Health, jobs, and justice for Brazil,” Lula, a member of the Workers’ Party, said Wednesday that “many of these deaths could have been avoided.”Lula also told the audience: “Do not follow a single one of the president or health minister’s moronic decisions.​ Get vaccinated.”“The people don’t need arms. The people need jobs,” Lula said, criticizing Bolsonaro’s pro-gun policy as well as his inept response to the ongoing economic turmoil, which the former president contrasted with the increased prosperity and reduced inequality that Brazilians experienced when he governed the country from 2003 until 2011. The speech was Lula’s first since a Brazilian Supreme Court justice on Monday overturned several criminal convictions against the former president, restoring his political rights and opening the door for a 2022 bid to unseat Bolsonaro.

 13-year-old girl lied about French teacher who was later beheaded, her lawyer says - A 13-year-old schoolgirl confessed that she lied about a French teacher who was beheaded after showing his class cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, according to the girl's lawyer. Samuel Paty, a secondary school teacher in a town near Paris, was killed last October by a radical Chechen teenager after showing the cartoons to students during a civics class about free speech.  The unidentified girl told police that she lied about being in the class and falsely accused Paty of asking Muslim children to leave the class while he showed the pictures.  Her father, who has been charged in connection with the murder, posted several incendiary videos on Facebook based on his daughter's testimony which identified Paty.

ECB signals faster money-printing to keep lid on yields (Reuters) - The European Central Bank said on Thursday it would accelerate money-printing to keep a lid on euro zone borrowing costs, signalling to sceptical markets that it is determined to lay the foundation for a solid economic recovery. Concerned that a rise in bond yields could derail a recovery across the 19 countries that share the euro, the ECB said it would use its 1.85 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) more generously over the coming months to stop any unwarranted rise in debt financing costs. Sources told Reuters that policymakers had set a monthly target but agreed not to disclose it. Purchases would not be as high as the 100 billion euros a month the ECB was buying in the spring of 2020, they said, but would still be well above the 60 billion euros of bonds it scooped up in February. “The Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year,” the ECB said in a statement after its regular policy meeting. The widely expected move comes after a steady rise in yields since the start of the year that has mostly mirrored a similar shift in U.S. Treasuries rather than reflecting improved economic prospects across the euro zone. Germany’s 10-year yield, the benchmark for the region, extended its fall after the decision and stood at -0.33% at 1635 GMT. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the council was in “total consensus”, but the sources said there were some disagreements. One of the sources said the ECB aimed to push down yields close to where they were in December, when Germany’s 10-year yield touched -0.64%, while another said improved economic prospects meant part of the recent increase in yields was justified. The ECB said it would continue to purchase flexibly but reaffirmed that its PEPP quota would not necessarily be used in full if market conditions allow. Including this proviso was a necessary concession to keep on board policy “hawks” who were sceptical about increasing bond purchases, one of the sources said. Investors had started to doubt the ECB’s commitment after purchase volumes actually decreased in the last two weeks, confounding expectations it would use its much-emphasised “flexibility” to run up market activity.

High rates of depression, anxiety, PTSD worldwide among health workers during COVID-19 -- A new systematic review of 65 studies from around the world involves a total of 97,333 health care workers and finds that 1 in 5 have experienced depression, anxiety, and/or PTSD during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Yufei Li, Nathaniel Scherer, and colleagues at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, U.K., present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on March 10. The pandemic has posed significant challenges for health care workers, with many fearing for their own safety while facing a high workload and limited psychological support. Previous analyses of data from multiple studies have revealed high rates of depression, anxiety, and PTSD among health care workers during the pandemic. However, those reviews did not adequately address the many relevant studies conducted in China, where the first COVID-19 outbreak occurred. To address that gap, Li, Scherer, and colleagues carried out a systematic search of studies in both English and Chinese that were conducted from December 2019 to August 2020 and addressed prevalence of mental disorders in health care workers. They identified 65 suitable studies from 21 countries, involving a total of 97,333 health care workers. By pooling and statistically analyzing data from all 65 studies, the researchers estimated that 21.7 percent of the health care workers involved in the studies have experienced depression during the pandemic, 22.1 percent anxiety, and 21.5 percent PTSD. Studies conducted in the Middle East showed the highest pooled rates of depression (34.6 percent) and anxiety (28.9 percent). These findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the mental health of health care workers. For comparison, the World Health Organization estimates that 4.4 percent of the entire world population experience depression, and 3.6 percent experience anxiety disorders, including PTSD. However, those estimates were determined through different methods and prior to the pandemic.