week ending Mar 6

Fed's Powell pledges patience, says easy policy appropriate (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday repeated his pledge to keep credit loose and flowing until Americans are back to work, rebutting investors who have openly doubted if he can stick to that promise once the pandemic passes and the economy surges on its own. With vaccines rolling out and the government fiscal taps open “there is good reason to think we will make more progress soon” toward the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and 2% sustained inflation, Powell told a Wall Street Journal forum. But “even if that happens it will take substantial time...We want labor markets consistent with our assessment of maximum employment. That means all of the things,” Powell said in reference to hopes for not only a low unemployment rate but wage and job gains that flow to minorities and others often left out of the first stages of an economic rebound. “I want to be clear about this,” Powell said. Even when conditions do improve, “I expect that we will be patient.” His comments, likely the last before a press conference on March 17 following the Fed’s next policy meeting, set aside concern that a recent move up in U.S. Treasury yields might spell trouble for the Fed as investors push up borrowing costs the central bank wants to keep low. While Powell said the increase was “notable and caught my attention,” he did not consider it a “disorderly” move, or one that pushed long-term rates so high the Fed might have to intervene in markets more forcefully to bring them down, such as by increasing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. “Our current policy stance is appropriate,” he said. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose another 5 basis points as Powell was speaking and signaled no immediate move was imminent from the Fed to cap the increase.  Some version of this message has been made by half a dozen Fed policymakers recently in the face of a surge in government bond yields that has seen the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield climb by more than half a percentage point since the start of the year. It now stands at roughly 1.5%, triple what it was last August and roughly where it was before the coronavirus pandemic struck. The Fed chorus is all in an effort to explain away that move as showing confidence in the country’s economic recovery, not evidence of damaging expectations about inflation to come or a full-on bet that the Fed would try to raise rates on its own to keep the economy from overheating.

 BankThink: The Fed needs to close backdoor to its payment rails - The Federal Reserve payments system has long been a fortress of safe and efficient monetary transfers, benefiting millions of consumers and banks, which only gain access through rigorous and consistent federal oversight. But those purpose-built high standards to access the nation’s critical payments infrastructure are under attack by new players — including cryptocurrency businesses — looking for a loophole to gain access to the Fed’s payments system. The Fed should take a very careful look at the risks these firms could pose to the system before allowing them in. The current situation stems from a movement in the states and within the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to expand the definition of institutions eligible to receive a bank charter. Such a move, if granted, comes with the opportunity to apply to the Federal Reserve for master account access. On the surface, that sounds appealing and a chance for new players to enter the highly competitive world of financial services. But there’s a catch. These entities see the value in getting access to Federal Reserve payments systems like the Fedwire Funds Service and the automated clearinghouse (ACH) network, but do not want to play by the same rules as traditional banks. Finding chartering authorities that are willing to redefine what it means to be a bank introduces risks to the financial system’s safety and soundness, consumer protection laws and international reputation. In 2019, Wyoming created a special-purpose depository charter (SPDI) targeting cryptocurrency businesses. The state requires these institutions to back up their deposits by holding 100% of their value in reserves, exempting them from the requirement to have insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. or federal oversight. The SPDI charter also prohibits these entities from making loans funded by the deposits. So, if they are not taking insured deposits and they aren’t making loans, why would they want a bank charter? The answer is simple — access to the nation’s payments system with a lower level of oversight. The lack of FDIC insurance and loan offerings suggests that the SPDIs would not meet the definition of “bank” under the Bank Holding Company Act. This means that related entities would not be subject to consolidated supervision by the Federal Reserve. This is a significant concern as the parent companies operate in the volatile and loosely regulated cryptocurrency space.

Fed’s Beige Book shows businesses optimistic on vaccine take-up -The U.S. economy expanded modestly in the first two months of the year and sentiment among business owners is picking up as vaccinations bolstered the prospects for economic growth, the Federal Reserve said. “Most businesses remain optimistic regarding the next six to 12 months as COVID-19 vaccines become more widely distributed,” according to the Beige Book based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through Feb. 22. Economic prospects have brightened as the daily count of COVID-19 cases has fallen to the lowest in more than four months. More than a dozen states posted fewer than 100 new cases per million residents — most of those in the West and Midwest. “Most districts reported that employment levels rose over the reporting period, albeit slowly,” the Fed stated in the report. “Overall, contacts expect modest improvements in employment levels in the near term.” Wage increases for many districts are expected to persist or to pick up somewhat over the next several months, the Fed said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in congressional testimony last week, said the U.S. economic recovery has been uneven, with personal services hurt by consumers’ reluctance to spend during the virus outbreak, while manufacturing of goods has picked up and the housing sector continues to do well. Powell is expected to speak again Thursday. The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee is certain to keep interest rates near zero and reiterate its commitment to its asset-purchase program when it meets March 16-17. The Beige Book is released two weeks before each meeting to give policymakers anecdotes that describe the economy in more detail by region, supplementing more formal data. First-quarter growth appears to be picking up. Retail sales rose in January by the most in seven months, indicating healthy consumer demand for goods at the start of the year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow index suggests U.S. gross domestic product may expand 10% in the first quarter. Policymakers are closely monitoring the economy for signs of a pickup in price inflation. Reports on pricing power “were mixed,” and in areas where input costs increased, this was widely attributed to supply-chain disruptions and strong demand, the report showed. Businesses in some districts expect “modest” increases over the next several months.

Beige Book Escalates Inflation Warning: Sees Most Prices Rising "Moderately", Some "Notably" -“Most businesses remain optimistic regarding the next six to 12 months as Covid-19 vaccines become more widely distributed.,” according to the Beige Book based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through Feb. 22.However, price anxiety is starting to leak into the bland report.In January, The Fed's Beige Book reported that:Almost all Districts saw modest price increases since the last report, with growth in input prices continuing to outpace that of finished goods and services.A month later and, as milquetoast as the Beige Book always is, it would appear things have escalated:On balance, nonlabor input costs rose moderately over the reporting period, with steel and lumber prices increasing notablySpecifically, The Fed noted that In many Districts, the rise in costs was widely attributed to supply chain disruptionsand to strong overall demand. Transportation costs continued to increase, in part due to rising fuel costs and capacity constraints. Reports on pricing power were mixed, with some retailers and manufacturers affected by input cost increases reporting the ability to pass prices through, while many others were unable to raise prices. Several Districts reported anticipating modest price increases over the next several months.Altogether, there were 166 mentions of "prices" (up from 144 in January), which fits with the surge in ISM survey prices...Perhaps even more notably, there were 21 mentions of "disruptions" in February (compared to 9 in January)Despite challenges from supply chain disruptions, overall manufacturing activity for most Districts increased moderately from the previous reportThe February Beige Book had 101 mentions of the word "moderate" (slightly up from 99 in Jan) but "moderate" - which is an 'escalation' from "modest" - was used 73 times in Feb, considerably more than the 54 times in January.Instances of "slow" have been falling for four straight months, and virus-related words appeared to drop in Feb after peaking in Jan.

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 5.5% SAAR -- From Merrrill Lynch: We continue to track 5.5% for 1Q GDP tracking. [Mar 5 estimate]    From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +5.5% (qoq ar). [Mar 5 estimate]    From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report:  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 8.6% for 2021:Q1 and 4.0% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 5 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on March 5, down from 10.0 percent on March 1. [Mar 5 estimate]

The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators as of 5 March -- Menzie Chinn - The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the  NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 3/3 for February nonfarm payroll employment (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Notice that while the 375K number seems large relative to 182K, this increase still looks small relative to the gap between where we were in February, and where we are today. This can be seen also in the private nonfarm series:Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment – BLS (blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 3/3 (teal square), private nonfarm payroll employment – ADP (red). Source: BLS, ADP, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.Employment in leisure and hospitality, specifically food services and drinking establishments,  led the way in increasing overall NFP employment. Figure 3 shows the change attributable to food services and drinking establishments, vs. all else.Figure 3: Change in employment in food services and drinking establishments (brown), and in rest of nonfarm payroll employment (green), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.That being said, food services and drinking establishment employment is down 2 million (16.4%) relative to February 2020. In contrast, manufacturing is down only 0.56 million (4.4%). The two sector recovery (goods faster than high-contact services) persists.As for the household survey numbers, don’t forget that the official unemployment rate figure (which dropped to 6.2%) is not particularly informative. See Furman and Powell for a discussion; their estimate of the true rate is around 8.2% for February.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). This data is as of February 28th. The seven day average is down 55.5% from the same week in 2019 (44.5% of last year). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through February 27, 2021. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up during the holidays, the slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is picking up again. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through February 25th. Movie ticket sales were at $9 million last week, down about 94% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. This data is through February 20th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 23.8% year-over-year. In a few weeks, the year-over-year comparisons will be easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy will still be down significantly from normal levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021. As of February 19th, gasoline supplied was off about 19.8% (about 80.2% of the same week in 2019). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.  There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through February 27th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 53% of the January 2020 level. It is at 45% in Chicago, and 55% in Houston (the dip was a weather related decline) - and moving up a little recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020. This data is through Friday, February 26th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

Is Inflation a Risk? Not Now, but Some See Danger Ahead – WSJ - Inflation is near a decade low and well below the 2% level the Federal Reserve targets as ideal. The usual conditions for rising inflation—tight job markets and public expectations of rising prices—are glaringly absent. Yet anxiety about inflation is at a fever pitch, among economists and in markets, where long-term interest rates have been grinding higher since President Biden unveiled plans for huge new fiscal stimulus. Behind this dichotomy is a clash of forces. In the near term, plentiful unused capacity and decades of habits are likely to keep inflation low. After years of undershooting 2%, the Fed would like inflation to slightly overshoot. That, it hopes, would banish the specter of deflation and stagnation that has haunted advanced economies for a decade. “The kind of troubling inflation that people like me grew up with seems far away and unlikely,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in late January. But in the longer term, some economists and investors see a shifting political climate more conducive to inflation rising well past 2%. They argue the Fed’s pursuit of over-2% inflation, Mr. Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and new goals such as narrowing racial economic disparities reduce the priority that policy makers will place on inflation. “The prevailing zeitgeist is all about accepting and even being enthusiastic about higher inflation,” said Larry Summers, the Harvard University economist and former adviser to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. He says the risk of inflation expectations shifting dramatically, leading to a disorderly fall in the dollar, is at its highest since the 1970s. The inflation picture has been muddied by the pandemic. As the global economy shut down last spring, prices for gasoline, lodging and airfares plummeted, helping drive inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the consumer price index, down from 2.3% in February 2020 to 1.4% this January. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, was also 1.4%, around the lowest since 2011. As last spring’s negative numbers drop out of the 12-month calculation and oil prices rebound, the inflation rate will automatically rise. At the same time, businesses may regain pricing power as vaccinated customers flock back. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the inflation rate to rise to 2.75% in the second quarter, then drop again.

 Inflation debate heats up over Biden relief bil - lPresident Biden is making some economists worried with his high-stakes gamble that a nearly $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package will give the economy a major boost without pushing up inflation into dangerous territory.“To say he’s taking a risk would be an understatement,” said Desmond Lachman, an economist at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute and former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund. For Biden, the relief package and its key components — stimulus checks, increases to child and earned income tax credits, emergency unemployment benefits — could set the tone for his presidency. A well-calibrated economic response could also help bring down unemployment, speed the recovery and set the stage for Democrats to head into the 2022 midterm elections with powerful economic tailwinds. But overshooting and sparking a significant spike in inflation could lead to major economic and political repercussions that might require intervention by the Federal Reserve. “If inflation gets out of control, the Fed has to step on the brakes and start jacking up the interest rates, and that normally produces a recession,” said Lachman. Like most economic shocks, a sharp rise in consumer prices would hit poor households the hardest by reducing the purchasing power of their already-low incomes. Republicans, who are almost universally expected to vote against the relief package, would be well-armed in their efforts to disparage the legislation heading into the midterms. That would put the White House on the defensive for a measure that is already expected to be followed by a heavy messaging campaign after Biden signs it into law.  Larry Summers, who served as Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration and then as a top economic adviser to former President Obama, made waves last month by warning that Biden’s stimulus package could overheat the economy, leading to higher prices. Most Democrats, however, point out that similar warnings in the past have led to small fiscal responses that ended up restraining growth, while unprecedented moves by Congress and the Fed failed to even bring inflation close to its target level of 2 percent. Biden, in particular, says he does not want to repeat the mistakes made in 2009 during the Obama administration, when a stimulus package in response to the Great Recession was around $800 billion amid similar inflation warnings. “It wasn’t quite big enough. It stemmed the crisis, but the recovery could have been faster and even bigger,” Biden said last month. Top economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, say that inflation is a solvable issue. “As Treasury secretary, I have to worry about all of the risks to the economy, and the most important risk is that we leave workers and communities scarred by the pandemic and the economic toll that it’s taken, that we don’t do enough to address the pandemic,” Yellen said last month. “I’ve spent many years studying inflation and worrying about inflation, and I can tell you, we have the tools to deal with that risk if it materializes,” she added. But recent activity in the bond market has exposed some concerns. Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve showed inflation expectations have risen to their highest level in 10 years. Bond yields spiked last week to more than 1.6 percent, a major move from the sub-1 percent level of just a few months ago. “It’s telling you that the bond vigilantes are getting back,” said Lachman, referring to bond traders who sell off bonds over inflationary concerns, lowering the price and raising the yields.

Minneapolis, Atlanta Fed Leaders Shrug Off Rising Bond Yields - The Federal Reserve doesn’t need to respond with monetary policy to the rise in Treasury bond yields that has rattled many investors, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said. In a video interview Friday with The Washington Post, Mr. Kashkari said the yield on the Treasury 10-year note adjusted for inflation is “still...

   A Big Fiscal Push is Urgent, The Risk of Overheating Is Small - The $1.9 trillion relief package is on track to pass in March but not without a struggle and with some important details still uncertain. The price tag is big, coming on the heels of the nearly $4 trillion Congress appropriated last year. That’s six times the fiscal relief in the first two years of the Great Recession. Even without the new package, the U.S. federal debt is more than GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a level not seen since World War II. With the stakes so high, disagreement among economists, even those who normally agree with each other, is heated. In the ranks of the inflation hawks are many revered macroeconomists. Most vocal are Larry Summers, a former Secretary of the Treasury, and Olivier Blanchard, a former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. John Taylor, Greg Mankiw, and Bill Dudley have raised similar concerns. On the other side are Janet Yellen, current Secretary of the Treasury, Jay Powell, current Chair of the Federal Reserve, Paul Krugman, a past Nobel Prize winner, and Gita Gopinath, the current Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, among others.All the sound and fury have recently unsettled bond markets. Last week, 10-year Treasury rates briefly hit 1.5% and remain at their highest levels since the pandemic began. Market-based inflation expectations moved up sharply, though their break-evens reflect other factors besides expected inflation. Nevertheless, inflation hawks point to these market signs as evidence of the risk that more deficit spending would push up rates and increase the government’s costs of servicing the federal debt. The markets steadied soon thereafter but the path forward in financial markets is far from certain. Moreover, as is always the case with markets, it is impossible to pinpoint the cause of day-to-day movements.  The risk of overheating rests on the dubious assumption that the relief package will create more demand than can be met easily and will thus lead to uncontrollable inflation. Recent data do not support that gloomy scenario. With ten million fewer jobs than prior to the pandemic, the case is strong to do more to support demand and a rapid recovery in the labor market. Making the same mistake that so many did in the policy debates of the Great Recession and its painfully slow recovery, the hawks are underestimating the economy’s capacity. They base their argument on elementary comparisons of potential output from the Congressional Budget Office and GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That approach is outdated and flawed. Conceptually, the hawks’ focus on the difference between GDP and potential output—the so-called output gap—is sensible. But they breeze past the commanding fact that similar calculations during the Great Recession understated the shortfall in demand and led to policy responses that were far too small.

A Literature Review on Economic Policy Response to Covid-19  Menzie Chinn - An excellent review of empirical findings regarding the various provisions is contained in this FEDS Notes article, by Elena Falcettoni, and Vegard Nygaard. The COVID-19 pandemic has kept economists busy analyzing many aspects of economic side of the coronavirus impact. This note is meant to present an overview of what economists have analyzed regarding the implications of two of the main components of the CARES Act that affect individuals: the increased UI benefits and the stimulus checks. We present the findings from the literature on these two policies with an eye on potential future governmental interventions.Taken together, these two components have been effective at providing stimulus and lowering poverty. In the aggregate, Kaplan et al. (2020) (PDF) find that the initial UI benefits and stimulus payments boosted aggregate consumption by 2 percentage points, while Bayer et al. (2020) show that the CARES transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by up to 5 percentage points. Complete note here.

U.S. Treasury Yields Waver After Strong Jobs Report – WSJ --Yields on U.S. government bonds swung sharply Friday after new data showed a big jump in employment in February, creating more optimism about the economic outlook and debate about the path of interest rates.The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 1.551%, according to Tradeweb. That was down from 1.626% right after the report but still up slightly from 1.547% Thursday. Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have been surging for weeks based largely on investors’ hopes for the near future, when vaccines may have tamed the coronavirus pandemic even as the government continues to pump money into the economy with various stimulus programs. Some solid economic data, though, has also helped—the latest coming Friday, when the Labor Department said that the economy added 379,000 jobs in February, much more than economists had anticipated.Appearing at The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, Mr. Powell said the recent increase in Treasury yields had caught his attention and suggested the Fed might intervene if overall financial conditions tighten much further. But he didn’t signal that the Fed was anywhere close to buying more long-term Treasurys in an effort to contain yields, as some investors had thought was possible. Mr. Powell has repeatedly said that the central bank will take a more patient approach to tightening monetary policy than it has in the past, indicating it won’t raise rates until inflation can be sustained at or above its 2% target and a range statistics indicate that the labor market is at maximum strength. Many investors, though, don’t seem to fully believe or understand the Fed’s new policy, creating a challenge for the central bank as yields rise.“The problem the Fed has now is that the bond market is clearly confused,”  Despite the sharp increase in Treasury yields, many analysts say the Fed isn’t likely to intervene in the market unless there is more severe selling in riskier assets, such as stocks and corporate bonds. Those play critical roles in determining the cost of raising money for businesses and influencing sentiment.

 Tanden withdraws nomination as Biden budget chief -- Neera Tanden has withdrawn her nomination to head President Biden's White House budget office after her prospects of Senate confirmation flamed out.The White House made the announcement on Tuesday evening, capping a tumultuous few weeks surrounding the fight over her nomination.Tanden, who would have been the first woman of color to lead the Office of Management and Budget, faced scrutiny over mean tweets she had written about Republicans and progressive Democrats alike in her previous role heading the Center for American Progress think tank.“I have accepted Neera Tanden’s request to withdraw her name from nomination for Director of the Office of Management and Budget,” President Biden said in a statement. “I have the utmost respect for her record of accomplishment, her experience and her counsel, and I look forward to having her serve in a role in my Administration. She will bring valuable perspective and insight to our work.”Tanden is Biden's first Cabinet nominee to be withdrawn from consideration, making this an early blow for the president. The White House spent the past two weeks insisting there was a path to confirmation for Tanden and vowed to fight for her, even as her prospects dimmed.Tanden is expected to be appointed to an administration role that does not require Senate confirmation.A handful of names have circulated as potential replacements for Tanden should her nomination to helm OMB fall through. Shalanda Young, who on Wednesday underwent a confirmation hearing to be the deputy OMB director, is seen as the most likely nominee. In her controversial tweets, many of which were deleted in recent months, Tanden compared Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to Voldemort and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to a vampire and insinuated that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) benefited from Russian hacking in the 2016 election.

Biden drops minimum wage hike from COVID-19 relief bill - Seizing on an advisory ruling Thursday by Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party have effectively abandoned any effort to raise the federal minimum wage. MacDonough ruled that incorporating the proposal to raise the minimum wage to $15 as part of the Democratic COVID-19 relief bill would violate the so-called Byrd rule, which limits the type of provisions that can be included in bills passed under the budget reconciliation process. Biden and the Democratic leadership are seeking to move their $1.9 trillion bill through Congress by means of the reconciliation process so that it can be passed by a simple majority in the Senate. A budget reconciliation measure requires only a majority vote in the 100-member Senate, as opposed to a regular bill, which, as a practical matter, requires 60 votes in order to overcome a filibuster. With the Senate evenly split between the two parties, Vice President Kamala Harris would cast the deciding vote in the upper legislative chamber. The Biden administration has seized on the parliamentarian’s ruling as an excuse to drop the minimum wage hike from the relief bill. On Friday, the White House announced that Harris would not exercise her power to overrule the parliamentarian, making clear that the abandonment of one of Biden’s major election campaign pledges is a matter of choice, not necessity. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders meekly accepted the White House climbdown, and his fellow so-called “progressive,” Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, announced that she would vote in favor of a relief bill stripped of the minimum wage increase. The dropping of the $15 per hour minimum wage, which would still leave millions of workers in poverty, is the latest demonstration that the Biden administration will be one of reaction, not reform. The brutal, bipartisan ruling class offensive against the working class is indicated by the failure to raise the federal minimum wage, presently at the near-starvation level of $7.25 per hour, for 14 years. The exclusion of the proposal will affect some 27 million US workers making less than $15 per hour, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office. This is under conditions where millions of workers remain out of work, with some 10 million jobs yet to return since the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. Of the jobs that have returned, many are low-paying and temporary, leaving millions of workers and their families struggling to survive on poverty wages and forced to rely on charity, while facing eviction, utility shut-offs and crushing credit card debt in the midst of a pandemic that has claimed over 520,000 lives in the US. The Biden administration and the Democrats see passage of the relief bill largely as a means of providing political cover for their intensified drive to reopen the schools and businesses, a policy, demanded by big business and the banks, that will lead to untold thousands of additional infections and deaths. There is nothing preventing Harris from ignoring the parliamentarian and moving forward with the bill, $15 minimum wage included. Alternatively, the Democrats could replace the parliamentarian, as the Republicans did in 2001 when the official ruled against then-President George W. Bush’s proposed tax cuts. On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Biden was “disappointed in this outcome,” but that he “respects the parliamentarian’s decision and the Senate’s process,” and will “work with leaders in Congress to determine the best path forward…”

Many Businesses Support a Minimum-Wage Increase—Just Not Biden’s $15-an-Hour Plan – WSJ - A debate to raise the federal minimum wage has tied Congress in knots, but many large employers and business groups wouldn’t mind an increase. Most businesses across the country are already paying above the federal wage floor of $7.25 an hour, and some business groups support lifting it, though not as much as the $15 level proposed by President Biden. Now members of Congress are considering policies including a smaller increase to $10 an hour and delaying or phasing in increases over a long period of time. Senate Democrats have dropped a briefly considered plan to raise workers’ wages through tax penalties and incentives. Those compromises could prove more palatable to employers and win business support. “It’s completely reasonable to look at increasing the federal minimum wage,” said Glenn Spencer, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Employment Policy Division. “But we view 15 as a number based on politics, not sound economic analysis.” The Business Roundtable, an advocacy group for large companies now chaired by Walmart Inc. Chief Executive Doug McMillon, supports raising the minimum wage but is concerned about the $15-an-hour proposal. “We believe that the increase should be thoughtfully designed to reflect regional differences in wage rates and not undermine small-business recovery,” Roundtable President Joshua Bolten wrote in a letter to congressional leaders. Mr. Bolten was President George W. Bush’s chief of staff. Large employers such as Amazon.com Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. , start workers at $15 an hour or more. And Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, last month said it would lift its average hourly pay above $15 but keep its minimum at $11. Some smaller businesses and restaurants are wary of large minimum-wage increases, but few pay as low as the federal floor of $7.25 an hour.   Still, a higher minimum wage puts pressure on smaller businesses that can’t raise wages as easily as large companies, which can adapt by deploying labor-saving technology or modestly adjusting hours for large workforces,  . “It’s a lot harder for Joe’s Hardware,” he said. “We should take note that Amazon—the place with no cashiers—is the one calling for a higher minimum wage.” Fewer than 250,000 people in the nation’s workforce of 140 million last year were paid exactly the federal minimum wage, which hasn’t changed since 2009, the Labor Department said last week.

Senate Lowers Cutoff For Covid Stimulus Checks To $80,000 --Senate Democrats and Joe Biden struck a last minute deal over Biden's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, choosing to keep federal unemployment benefit payments at $400 per week but phase out the measure's $1,400 stimulus checks more quickly. As Politico notes, the decision, which speeds up the phasing out of checks, reflects a demand from moderates to curb the ability of high-income earners to receive the stimulus payments.Under the agreement, individuals who make up to $75,000 per year or couples who make up to $150,000 per year will still receive a $1,400 check. But the Senate bill, which as we noted earlier will be unveiled as soon as later today, substantially reduces the income window for receiving a partial check: Compared to $100,000 under the House bill the checks will now phase out completely at an income threshold of $80,000 for individuals under the Senate deal. For couples, the checks would phase out completely at an income threshold of $160,000 under the Senate deal, compared to $200,000 for the House bill. The phase-outs will start at $75,000 and $150,000 respectively.This, as Breaking911 calculates, means that "stimulus checks will now go out to fewer people than under Trump"While the Senate bill changes the checks, it’s expected to keep the House-passed $400 per week unemployment payment, with payments scheduled to last until August.According to report, there had been a push by centrist Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin - who has emerged as the most powerful man in the Senate - to lower the payments to $300 per week, but the idea sparked broad opposition in the Senate Democratic Caucus.That breakthrough has Democrats ready to press forward on Biden's bill as soon as possible. Biden urged the party to “swallow” provisions they don’t like during a virtual lunch meeting on Tuesday, according to one Senate Democrat. Moderate senators could offer their $300 weekly proposal as an amendment later this week, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said he plans to force a vote on a $15 hourly minimum wage.The disagreement over unemployment benefits was not a big enough problem to derail, or even delay, the party’s push for quick passage of the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill.Those Democrats said that they expected a relatively smooth process as they race to finish the bill ahead of the March 14 expiration of some boosted unemployment benefits. The Senate is hoping to send its version of the legislation back to the House well before that deadline in order to give states a head start on the logistics of extending those benefits.

COVID Relief Showers States With 600% Of Lost Tax Revs, Turning Rescue Into Stimulus --Joe Biden is giving so much money to states as part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package that they're set to receive approximately six times more money than estimated tax revenue shortfalls across the country, according toBloomberg.While the package carves out nearly $200 billion for state governments, the cumulative tax revenues which have disappeared in the current fiscal year are just $31 billion. "In other words, that money could make up for that loss and be plowed back into states’ economies, such as their own version of relief checks, infrastructure projects and more, depending on the federal guidelines around the aid."In short - states, assuming they don't squander the funds (who are we kidding?), could play a pivotal role in accelerating the recovery - assuming the money actually stimulates jobs and/or ends up in the hands of consumers. The funds would also allow for the unwinding of various budgetary cuts which began last March, and are responsible for the elimination of more than 1.3 million state and local government jobs - which Bloomberg notes is "nearly twice as many as were lost after the last recession."Republicans, however, argue that some of the stimulus should be cut or shifted to other priorities which could have a more immediate impact than essentially giving states their own giant slush funds."If the whole point of this bill is to stimulate economic activity, the federal government has ways of doing that, that may be more efficient than sending checks to state and local governments," said Moody's director of public sector research, which estimates that $56 billion is the actual price tag states need to cover shortfalls through 2022 after previously allocated aid is taken into account.Bloomberg also notes that "the financial impact overall has been far smaller than initially feared when Covid last year sent the US economy into the deepest recession since World War II, which left governors nationwide braving for the gravest fiscal crisis of modern times."

$350 Billion Covid "Bailout" To States, Cities, And Counties: Here Are Biggest Winners And Losers This week, the U.S. House passed, along party lines, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. A vote in the U.S. Senate is expected soon. Buried within the 591-page bill is a $350 billion bailout for 50 states, tribal governments, U.S. territories, and more than 30,000 cities and counties. Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com finally located the $350 billion allocation, line-by-line, in a supplemental database hidden on the back end of the House Oversight Committee’s website. We mapped the data to each of the 50 states.  Click here to see how much taxpayer money Congress earmarked your hometown to receive from the COVID “relief” bill.Congress tried to hide these line-by-line appropriations, but thanks to technology and the internet, you can search it for yourself.Here’s a summary of our oversight findings — our top-down state analysis uses figures found in the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report issued 3/3/2021.. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s House Democrats changed the allocation formula from being based on population to the unemployment rate. This change caused 23 states to gain $31.9 billion and 27 states to lose that funding. The four biggest winners were Democratic strongholds: California—which reaped an extra $6.7 billion; New York—which added another $6 billion; Illinois — increased by $2.1 billion; and New Jersey — a $2 billion increase. Overall, California - Pelosi's home state - was allocated the most money ($42.3 billion), followed by Texas ($27.3 billion), New York ($23.5 billion), and tribal governments ($20 billion). They’re followed by states like Florida ($17.3 billion), Illinois ($13.5 billion), Pennsylvania ($13.5 billion), Ohio ($11 billion), Michigan ($10.1 billion), and New Jersey ($10 billion). The biggest losers were Florida (-$2.3 billion), Vermont (-$2.1); and Wyoming (-$2 billion). The funding change rewarded Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in New York ($23.5 billion) over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in Florida ($17.3 billion), even though Florida has a larger population and a lower COVID-19 death rate.Since the Senate is split evenly between the two parties, Democrats can’t afford any defections if the bill is to pass.Will the two new Democratic senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, from Georgia still vote for this bill even though it shifts $1.5 billion of their Georgia tax dollars to California and New York? What about Sen. Joe Machin (D-WV), whose state is losing $991 million due to the allocation change?

Senate votes to take up COVID-19 relief bill == Senate Democrats voted on Thursday to take up a sweeping $1.9 trillion coronavirus bill, teeing off what's expected to be a days-long sprint to pass the legislation. The Senate voted 50-50 to proceed to the coronavirus relief legislation, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie to advance the bill. “The Senate is going to move forward with the bill. No matter how long it takes, the Senate is going to stay in session to finish the bill this week,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said from the Senate floor on Thursday ahead of the vote. Thursday's vote comes after a delay on getting the green light from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) ensuring that the Senate's bill, which largely reflects the House measure, complied with reconciliation rules, a budget process that is allowing them to bypass a 60-vote filibuster. In an expected change, the Senate's version of the coronavirus bill strips out language increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour and lowers the cutoff for receiving stimulus checks to $80,000 for individuals and $160,000 for couples. A Senate Democratic aide said on Thursday that the bill also provides $510 million for FEMA homeless shelter providers, increases the total amount of Amtrak relief funding by $200 million and places "new guardrails" on the $350 billion for state and local governments. No Republicans voted to take up the coronavirus bill. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) knocked the legislation ahead of Thursday's vote, calling it “ill-suited.” “Senate Democrats, including committee chairs, are essentially being jammed with text from the House. Their own members have barely been able to read this thing, let alone shape it,” he said. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voted against taking up the legislation. She has not yet said how she will vote on the final bill. In a win for Schumer, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Angus King (I-Maine) voted to proceed. They are among a handful of must-watch Democrats who could make or break the legislation.

 Senate GOP will force clerks to read bill to delay COVID-19 relief vote -- Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a staunch Trump ally and fiscal conservative, has told colleagues that he plans to force the Senate clerks to read aloud the entire $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill on the Senate floor, which could slow it down by as much as 10 hours. Democrats on Wednesday were grumbling over the prospect of having to factor an additional 10 hours of floor time into passing the bill. Any senator can force a reading of a bill on the floor, but the formality is almost always skipped by unanimous consent to avoid wasting time. Now senators will likely have to spend 10 hours listening to the bill be read aloud, which will come on top of the 20 hours of debate time scheduled for the legislation. A Republican senator said Johnson will force a reading of the Senate substitute, which will include several changes compared to the 630-page relief bill that passed the House. “I’m told it’s going to be more like 10 [hours]. It’s going to occur at the beginning so it would be before the clocks starts so it doesn’t go against the 20 hours, it’s on top of the 20,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.). A Morning Consult-Politico poll published last week showed that 76 percent of voters and 60 percent of Republicans support the $1.9 trillion relief package yet Senate Republicans are putting up stiff resistance to the legislation, characterizing it as wasteful spending. “Their bill costs about $2 trillion. That’s roughly the same size as the entire CARES Act that saved our health system and economy through months of shutdowns,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on the Senate floor. “Even liberal experts admit this is far out of proportion to what’s needed now, with vaccines going into arms and the economy already primed to roar back,” he said. “Amazingly, Democrats managed to allocate less than 9 percent of their massive bill to the entire health care response, and less than 1 percent to the vaccinations that will finish this fight.” Republicans have focused their criticism on two projects in the House-passed bill that they said would benefit the home states of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). One project would provide $141 million in funding for the Bay Area Rapid Transit system, while the other would give $1.5 million for the Seaway International Bridge to Canada. Democrats have removed both projects from the Senate version of the bill.

Schumer vows Senate will pass coronavirus relief this week --Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) pledged on Thursday that Democrats would pass a massive coronavirus relief bill this week, even as Republicans plot how to slow down the bill. “The Senate is going to move forward with the bill. No matter how long it takes, the Senate is going to stay in session to finish the bill this week,” Schumer said from the Senate floor. Democrats had hoped to start the clock on the coronavirus relief bill on Wednesday, but punted as they awaited guidance from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the cost of the bill and if it complies with reconciliation, the process the party is using to avoid a 60-vote filibuster in the Senate. Democrats are now hoping to have that vote on Thursday afternoon, though it hasn’t been locked in yet. Even after the initial vote, Democrats could face up to another 30 hours before they could even start a vote-a-rama, a marathon session that is expected to last several additional hours. Republicans are vowing to file a mountain of potential amendments to the bill. During a vote-a-rama, any senator who wants to force an amendment vote can do so, giving Democrats little control over how long it lasts. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a staunch Trump ally, is vowing to force Senate floor staff to read the coronavirus bill, a process that senators say could last anywhere from five to 10 hours. Schumer on Thursday mocked the effort by Johnson, saying that Democrats would be “delighted” to let Americans hear the details of the $1.9 trillion plan. “We all know this will merely delay the inevitable. It will accomplish little more than a few sore throats for the Senate clerks who work very hard,” he said. “The senator from Wisconsin wants to give the American people another opportunity to hear what’s in the American Rescue plan. We Democrats want America to hear what’s in the plan,” he added.

Bad Stimulus: Government Payments to Individuals Are a Terrible Way to Solve America’s Structural Economic Problems – The new Democratic administration is poised to make its first proud step in delivering on its electoral promise to build back (America) better: the successful adoption of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, the main components of which are a third round of stimulus checks, a renewal of federal unemployment benefits, and a boost to the child tax credit, as well as funding for school reopenings and vaccinations. It will probably not include a federal minimum wage hikeBiden’s stimulus is not the stuff of economic revolution—it’s a mix of common sense and keeping the lights on. And the fundamental thinking behind the stimulus approach reflects a continuation of neoliberal policies of the past 40 years; instead of advancing broader social programs that could uplift the population, the solutions are predicated on improving individual purchasing power and family circumstances. Such a vision of society as a collection of enterprising individuals is a hallmark of the neoliberal policy formula—which, as the stimulus bill is about to make clear, is still prevalent within the Democratic and the Republican parties. This attention to individual purchasing power promises to be the basis for bipartisan agreement over the next four years.The reality is that social programs on health care and education, and a new era of labor and banking regulation, would put the wider society on sounder feet than a check for $1,400.There are very few federally elected officials who behave as though they understand that economic insecurity can breed political instability and governing paralysis. Globalization, deindustrialization, the contraction of the public sector, and the rise of contract labor via the gig economy have made individuals feel insecure in their private circumstances. This has contributed to the appeal of populist politicians, whose tenures generally are corrosive to liberal democracies. Moreover, these tendencies have together undermined our social contract as a whole, depriving governments of the means and resources to tend to the public interest.Missing from the frame of thinking that dominates the stimulus debate, therefore, is something essential—the commons, a robust public sector of goods (e.g., energy) and services (e.g., health care) that makes societies resilient to crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and weather-incurred power shortages. Ironically, it is this very deficiency—achieved through decades of cuts to public spending and privatization of public assets—that transformed the COVID-19 epidemic into a public health care disaster (and likewise turned Texas into the equivalent of a broken-down banana republic during the worst of its power grid shutdowns, brought about by decades of adherence to market fundamentalism in regard to public infrastructure goals).

The Senate must pass the $1.9 trillion relief and recovery plan with the UI provisions extended to October 3 EPI Blog -- Another 1.2 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits last week, the last week of February. This included 745,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 437,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)—the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers.The 1.2 million who applied for UI last week was roughly the same as the prior week (an increase of 18,000). The four-week moving average of total initial claims was unchanged.Last week was the 50th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. (If that comparison is restricted to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession—initial claims last week would have been higher than the sixth-worst week of the Great Recession.)   Figure A shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data for this are for February 13). Continuing claims are currently nearly 16 million above where they were a year ago. The Senate is poised to pass a crucial $1.9 trillion relief plan, which is the level of relief and recovery spending that the economy needs. One big problem with the plan, however, is that its unemployment insurance provisions are currently set to expire on August 29 (other provisions in the plan expire on September 30). The UI provisions must be extended to at least October 3, so that aid to the unemployed doesn’t lapse while Congress is on its August recess.

Doing too little in this moment of crisis will come back to haunt the U.S. economy -- EPI  -The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) is essential to a robust and equitable recovery. The risk of doing too little is far greater than the risk of doing too much, and the American Rescue Plan meets the scale of the crisis.The overall size and components of the ARP have been carefully studied and considered. Given the balance of risks facing the economy and the danger of delay, passing the plan at its current scale and composition is the most prudent thing policymakers can do to ensure a rapid and fair recovery. Clearly, this is necessary.As the Senate debates what belongs in the final relief bill this week, policymakers must not shortchange aid to state and local governments, which is essential to a robust recovery. While projected state and local revenue shortfalls are shrinking from the horrifyingly large forecasts of last year, fiscal stresses remain intense, driven by demands on state and local spending that have increased because the COVID-19 economic pain has been concentrated among low-wage workers. This state and local aid is the best and most immediate way to finance public investments in education and safety net programs. Scaling back this aid would make our economy, and the people in it, worse off. Further, we should extend pandemic unemployment provisions to October 3 so relief does not expire in August while Congress is in recess.

Senate holds longest vote in history as Democrats scramble to save relief bill --Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) held open a vote on a minimum wage amendment for a record 11 hours and 50 minutes Friday to buy time to save the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) raised an unexpected objection.The vote was finally closed at 10:53 p.m.It took Schumer, with the help of President Biden, nearly nine hours tonegotiate a deal with Manchin. But even then, they had to wait for the legislative text to be drafted and for a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.  The vote broke the record set on June 28, 2019, when senators kept a vote on an amendment to the annual defense authorization bill open for 10 hours and eight minutes to accommodate Democratic presidential candidates who participated in a debate in Miami.The Senate floor was largely empty for hours as different Democratic senators presiding over the chamber held open a procedural vote on an amendment by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.The Senate started voting on the Sanders amendment at 11:03 a.m. and by 12:15 p.m. it appeared all senators had voted. The amendment was defeated after seven Democrats and an independent voted with all 50 Republicans to sustain a procedural objection.But the presiding chair declined to gavel the vote to a close even after there were no more votes to count, while a few lawmakers huddled on the floor, shuffling papers on desks.At first the delay was attributed to a relatively routine dispute over what amendments would next come to the floor. It turned into something more serious when it became clear that Manchin was willing to vote for an amendment sponsored by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) to reduce the amount of weekly unemployment benefits in the relief bill from $400 to $300 and extend those benefits to July 18 instead of Aug. 29, as passed by the House.If Manchin voted for the Republican amendment, it had a good chance of passing and would have derailed a more generous compromise amendment sponsored by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.). The Wyden-Carper deal would have reduced the weekly benefit from $400 to $300 but would have extended payments to Oct. 4. It also would forgive taxes on the first $10,200.Senators left the floor and there was no announcement from the leadership about what the problem was or how long it might take to resolve. Lawmakers fumed as the minutes turned into hours. They thought they would be well through the marathon session by Friday evening, but when dinner time rolled around, the chamber was still stuck on the first vote.  “If we were doing this, you’d be all over us. We couldn’t get five feet down the hall,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) grumbled to reporters.“Why did you put the Senate on hold for five-and-a-half hours because you won’t let two Republicans work with a Democrat to do something they want to do,” he said of the Democrats’ effort to freeze votes to persuade Manchin not to support the Republican amendment.

Senate GOP gets short-lived win on unemployment fight --Senate Republicans are getting what's expected to be a short-lived win in a fight over unemployment benefits in Democrats' nearly $1.9 trillion coronavirus bill. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) voted with all 49 Republican senators — Sen. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) is absent due to a family emergency — in support of a proposal from Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) to provide a $300 per week unemployment payment through mid-July. But Democrats are expected to strip out Portman's amendment and replace it with a deal they announced on Friday night, after a nearly 12-hour delay, before they pass the coronavirus deal likely on Saturday. Democrats are still waiting for a Joint Committee on Taxation score about the cost of the Democratic proposal, which would provide a $300 per week payment through Sept. 6. "We expect Senator Portman to offer his UI amendment and for it to pass. However, it will be superseded by Senate Democrats’ new UI agreement, which will be offered and passed as an amendment tonight," a Democratic aide said about the path forward. Though Manchin supported Portman's amendment, he's also expected to support the Democratic deal. In addition to the weekly payment, the Democratic amendment will let the first $10,200 in unemployment benefits be tax free for households with incomes of up to $150,000. "We have reached a compromise that enables the economy to rebound quickly while also protecting those receiving unemployment benefits from being hit with [an] unexpected tax bill next year," Manchin said in a statement endorsing the Democratic deal. Democrats effectively put the debate on the coronavirus bill on hold for nearly 12 hours Friday as they tried to craft an agreement on the unemployment payments that could win over the entire caucus. Democrats had initially said on Friday morning that they had a deal to provide a $300 per week payment until early October.But as they day dragged on it became clear that they were still trying to wrangle together the caucus. Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) argued once the Senate moved forward just before 11 p.m. that Democrats were united. "The agreement that’s been reached will allow us to move forward with the American Rescue Plan," he said. "Senate Democrats are completely united in our belief about how important this entire bill is for our fellow Americans."

Senate Democrats Overcome Impasse, Reach Agreement to Advance Covid Relief Bill - WSJ—Senate Democrats struck a deal Friday night to extend $300 weekly federal unemployment benefits through Sept. 6 following hours of negotiations with Sen. Joe Manchin, clearing the way for the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package’s expected passage on Saturday.The daylong deliberations with Mr. Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, had brought the chamber to a standstill, preventing lawmakers from making headway in the hourslong marathon of amendment votes, known as “vote-a-rama,” that precede the vote on the bill’s final passage. Lawmakers were still expected to vote Friday night on a slew of amendments stretching into Saturday morning.The latest agreement from Senate Democrats would slightly extend the duration of the federal jobless benefits, but lower their weekly amount, compared to the bill passed by the House last Saturday, which provided $400 weekly payments through Aug. 29. Senate Democrats added a new provision to make the first $10,200 of the 2020 benefits nontaxable for households making less than $150,000.“We have reached a compromise that enables the economy to rebound quickly while also protecting those receiving unemployment benefits from being hit with [an] unexpected tax bill next year,” Mr. Manchin said in a statement late Friday.President Biden supports the compromise agreement Senate Democrats struck on unemployment benefits, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. Democrats have been working to pass a new relief bill before current federal unemployment benefits expire in mid-March.The bill also provides $1,400 direct payments to many Americans, sends $350 billion to state and local governments, funds vaccine distribution, and expands the child tax credit, among other measures. The package advanced on a procedural vote Thursday with the support of all 50 members of the Democratic caucus and no Republicans.The Senate had stalled for hours Friday, after Mr. Manchin appeared willing to side with Republicans in an effort to shorten the duration of unemployment benefits, underscoring the precariousness of the party’s majority. During the negotiations, Senate leaders held open a vote on a minimum wage amendment for such a long period that by Friday night, as it approached the 11-hour mark, it became the longest recorded vote in modern Senate history.Most Democrats in the 50-50 Senate had signed on to an effort unveiled Friday morning by Sen. Tom Carper (D., Del.) to lower the weekly federal jobless benefits to $300 a week but extend them through Oct. 4, instead of Aug. 29 in the House version. Mr. Carper’s amendment would also make the first $10,200 of the 2020 benefits nontaxable.The final Democratic agreement differed from Mr. Carper’s original proposal by ending the jobless benefits on Sept. 6, rather than Oct. 4, and adding an income cap to the benefits that would be exempt from taxation. But Mr. Manchin appeared to be willing to support a rival GOP amendment from Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio that would extend the $300 weekly payments just through July 18, according to aides and lawmakers.Mr. Manchin was expected to vote for Mr. Portman’s amendment during the vote-a-rama. However, he is also expected to back the new Democratic amendment on jobless benefits, which is written to supersede the GOP measure. Cutting the unemployment benefits off in July, as the Portman amendment would have done, could have created problems in the House, where liberals have already been frustrated with changes demanded by centrist Senate Democrats. The House will need to pass the revised Senate bill before Mr. Biden can sign it into law. Senate Democrats said the new compromise on jobless benefits still provided important aid, even if it fell short of what the more liberal lawmakers had sought.

Senate Democrats vote to provide $300 unemployment benefits into September - Senate Democrats voted early Saturday morning to provide a $300 weekly federal unemployment payment into early September—effectively undoing a GOP effort to end those payments in mid-July. Senators voted 50-49 to add the amendment from Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) into the roughly $1.9 trillion coronavirus bill currently being debated by the chamber. All 50 Democratic senators vote for the amendment, which provides the weekly $300 payment until Sept. 6. Every Republican on hand to vote opposed it. The vote came roughly an hour after Senate Republicans were able to get a short-lived win when they muscled an amendment from Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) temporarily into the coronavirus bill. Portman's amendment provided a $300 per week payment but until July 18. Republicans were able to claim the brief victory because Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who supported the subsequent Democratic amendment, also voted for Portman's proposal. But a Democratic aide had telegraphed in advance how the drama would play out. There was a roughly hour delay between the Portman and Wyden votes because Democrats were still waiting to find out the cost of their proposal. "We expect Senator Portman to offer his UI amendment and for it to pass. However, it will be superseded by Senate Democrats’ new UI agreement, which will be offered and passed as an amendment tonight," the Democratic aide said ahead of the votes. Both of the proposals are a change from the House-passed bill that would have provided a $400 per week payment through late August. Democrats kept the debate over the coronavirus relief bill in limbo for nearly 12 hours starting midday Friday as they tried to work out the agreement on the unemployment language. They had initially indicated that they had a deal on Friday morning that would have provided the $300 unemployment benefit until early October. But as the day dragged on—and Democrats set a new record for the longest vote in modern Senate history—it became obvious that Democrats were scrambling to lock down Manchin's support. Because of the thin 50-50 margin, Democrats needed the support of their entire caucus in order to a deal on the unemployment payments into the bill. They announced their final agreement, which had Manchin's support, shortly before 8 p.m. on Friday. In addition to the $300 per week payment, the Democratic agreement also omits $10,200 of unemployment benefits from federal income taxes for households with an income of less than $150,000.

McConnell makes failed bid to adjourn Senate after hours-long delay --Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Friday made a failed bid to adjourn the Senate and punt the debate on the Democratic coronavirus bill until Saturday. McConnell’s move came after the Senate sat in limbo for nearly 12 hours on Friday as Democrats tried to work out a deal that could win over all 50 members of their caucus. “They want to begin the vote-a-rama that could have been done in daylight because of their own confusion and the challenges of getting together 50 people to agree on something when they could have doing it quicker on a bipartisan basis,” McConnell said. “So rather than start the voting at five minutes to 11, I move to adjourn until 10 a.m." But Democrats were able to vote down the effort. In addition to controlling the majority, because Vice President Harris can break a tie, Republicans were also short a vote because Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) flew home for a family emergency. The effort to punt until Saturday comes after Democrats created a new record for the longest vote in modern Senate history when they left open a vote on Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) minimum wage proposal for almost 12 hours. Senate holds longest vote in history as Democrats scramble to save... Democrats break COVID-19 impasse with deal on jobless benefits Democrats left the vote open while they huddled in closed-door meetings to come up with an unemployment payment deal that moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) could support. Democrats announced that deal shortly before 8 p.m., but are still waiting on a Joint Committee on Taxation score. Despite McConnell's opposition, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is pledging that the Senate will power through Friday night and likely into Saturday morning in order to wrap up the nearly $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill. “Now that this agreement has been reached, we are going to power through the rest of the process and get this bill done,” he said. “Make no mistake: we are going to continue working until we get the job done.

Democrats battle for U.S. Senate passage of Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid bill  (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Saturday inched toward passage of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan in an around-the-clock session that began on Friday involving nearly two dozen votes and hours of closed-door negotiations. Democrats, who narrowly control the chamber, agreed to scale back aid to the millions who have lost their jobs in the crisis. As Friday night turned to Saturday morning, they stuck together to turn back Republican attempts to modify the bill, which according to the Congressional Budget Office would be the largest stimulus package ever. If the Democratic bill becomes law, Washington will have provided about $6 trillion in emergency assistance over the past year to battle the coronavirus pandemic and help stabilize the American economy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, during morning debate, said lawmakers were nearing the end of the long amendment process before a vote on the overall bill. With Republicans united in opposition, Democrats must keep all 50 of their caucus on board in the 100-seat chamber in order to pass the package, with Vice President Kamala Harris able to cast a tie-breaking vote. The Senate set a record for its longest single vote in the modern era -- 11 hours and 50 minutes -- as Democrats negotiated a compromise on unemployment benefits to satisfy centrists like Senator Joe Manchin, who worried the massive package might overheat the economy. With that resolved, senators began working through a stack of proposals to modify the bill. Democrats voted down Republican amendments to modify how money would be distributed to schools, state governments, transit systems and farmers. Early on Saturday, Democrats repelled Republican Senator Tom Cotton’s attempt to send the behemoth bill back to a committee to rework part of U.S. immigration policy unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans were one vote down after Senator Dan Sullivan left Washington to go to Alaska for a family funeral. The largest public health crisis in a century has killed more than 521,000 people in the United States, thrown millions out of work and upended most aspects of American life. The relief legislation includes funding for vaccines and medical supplies, extends jobless assistance and provides a new round of emergency financial aid to households, small businesses and state and local governments. Opinion polls indicate broad public support for the package.

 Coronavirus Relief: Senate Approves $1.9 Trillion Package --The Senate approved President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan Saturday, securing additional aid for American families, workers and businesses — and a legislative victory for the Biden administration.After more than 24 hours of debate, the evenly divided Senate voted 50-49 to approve the measure. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska was absent because he was in Alaska for a family funeral.The package delivers a new round of financial assistance to Americans grappling with the impact of the pandemic, including $1,400 direct payments, an extension of supplemental unemployment benefits and an increase to the child tax credit.Individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples earning up to $150,000 would receive the full direct payments of $1,400 per person. But those payments would phase out for individuals and couples who make more than $80,000 and $160,000, respectively. The income cutoff was lowered after moderate Democrats demanded that the latest round of checks target lower-income families.Federal unemployment benefits would be extended through Sept. 6 at the current rate of $300 per week and the first $10,200 of those benefits would be tax-free for households that earn $150,000 or less.Democrats were under pressure to get the bill to Biden's desk before current federal unemployment benefits expire on March 14. The budget reconciliation process allowed them to act without Republican backing, requiring only a simple majority to pass the bill.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., signaled Tuesday that Democrats had the support they needed to move forward with the vote. But debate on the Senate floor was delayed when Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., indicated Wednesday that he'd require Senate clerks to read the more than 600 page bill on the floor, pushing the vote by several hours."We need to highlight the abuse," Johnson said in a Tweet. "This is not a COVID relief bill. It's a boondoggle for Democrats."Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Tuesday accused the Biden administration of trying to "jam" Republicans on the legislation."It is my hope that in the end Senate Republicans will unanimously oppose it, just like House Republicans did," McConnell said to reporters.

Biden Bombs Syria and Claims Self Defense - by Caitlin Johnstone — On orders of President Biden, the United States has launched an airstrike on a facility in Syria. As of this writing the exact number of killed and injured is unknown, with early reports claiming “a handful” of people were killed. Rather than doing anything remotely resembling journalism, the western mass media have opted instead to uncritically repeat what they’ve been told about the airstrike by US officials, which is the same as just publishing Pentagon press releases. Here’s this from The Washington Post:The Biden administration conducted an airstrike against alleged Iranian-linked fighters in Syria on Thursday, signaling its intent to push back against violence believed to be sponsored by Tehran.Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the attack, the first action ordered by the Biden administration to push back against alleged Iranian-linked violence in Iraq and Syria, on a border control point in eastern Syria was “authorized in response to recent attacks against American and coalition personnel in Iraq, and to ongoing threats.”He said the facilities were used by Iranian-linked militias including Kaitib Hezbollah and Kaitib Sayyid al-Shuhada.The operation follows the latest serious attack on U.S. locations in Iraq that American officials have attributed to Iranian-linked groups operating in Iraq and Syria. Earlier this month, a rocket attack in northern Iraq killed a contractor working with the U.S. military and injured a U.S. service member there. So we are being told that the United States launched an airstrike on Syria, a nation it invaded and is illegally occupying, because of attacks on “US locations” in Iraq, another nation the US invaded and is illegally occupying. This attack is justified on the basis that the Iraqi fighters were “Iranian-linked”, a claim that is both entirely without evidence and irrelevant to the justification of deadly military force. And this is somehow being framed in mainstream news publications as a defensive operation.This is Defense Department stenography. The US military is an invading force in both Syria and Iraq; it is impossible for its actions in either of those countries to be defensive. It is always necessarily the aggressor. It’s the people trying to eject them who are acting defensively. The deaths of US troops and contractors in those countries can only be blamed on the powerful people who sent them there.The US is just taking it as a given that it has de facto jurisdiction over the nations of Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and that any attempt to interfere in its authority in the region is an unprovoked attack which must be defended against. This is completely backwards and illegitimate. Only through the most perversely warped American supremacist reality tunnels can it look valid to dictate the affairs of sovereign nations on the other side of the planet and respond with violence if anyone in those nations tries to eject them.

“Biden is Not Obama”: Israel Very Pleased With Biden’s Decision to Bomb Syria — Israeli officials told Walla News on Friday that Israel is highly pleased with President Biden’s decision to bomb Shia militia targets in eastern Syria.  Although the airstrikes hit an Iraqi militia, the attack is being framed as a move against Iran, and the officials compared Biden to President Obama, who they view as soft on Iran due to the 2015 nuclear deal.  “The Iranians didn’t realize that Biden is not Obama, and that if they will continue down this road of miscalculation they will eventually get hit,” one Israeli official told Walla.  According to a report from Axios, Israel was given advanced notice of the Syria airstrikes on Thursday morning. The notification took place during talks of the so-call “working group,” a forum the US and Israel are using to discuss Iran issues that is headed by each countries’ national security advisors.  Israel has been bombing Syria for years and frequently targets Shia militias that they always claim are linked to Iran. Last week, Israel bombed Damascus, Syria, killing nine people who were described as pro-government militia fighters.

 Romney's TRUST Act is a Trojan Horse to cut seniors' benefits - An insidious piece of legislation affecting Social Security and Medicare may be working its way into the COVID-19 relief bill. We had hoped that Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) TRUST Act was moribund after it went nowhere in the last Congress. But it has come back to life as an amendment to the FY 2021 budget resolution that the Senate passed in February. Now, Romney may offer the TRUST Act as an amendment to the COVID relief bill — a dangerous idea that has no place in legislation intended to ease, not exacerbate, Americans’ financial pain.  Seniors’ advocates were rightly alarmed in 2019 when Romney first introduced this legislation, which would establish congressional “rescue committees” to consider cuts to Social Security and Medicare. The committees’ recommendations would then be fast-tracked for approval in the House and Senate. This is nothing more than a back-door mechanism for enacting cuts to seniors’ earned benefits that wouldn’t otherwise be possible through the normal legislative process. Though the TRUST Act would impact the Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance) trust fund, it would affect the entire Social Security program, including retirement and disability benefits. Social Security is completely self-funded and separate from other federal spending. It does not contribute even a penny of red ink. In fact, ‘tax expenditures’ (revenue the federal government forgoes through tax breaks) are the No. 1 driver of deficits. The most recent and egregious example was the $2 trillion GOP tax giveaway to the wealthy and big corporations in 2017. It is true that Social Security faces future financial challenges.  But there are reasonable revenue-side solutions that do not ask tomorrow’s seniors to endure benefit cuts when all indications are that they will need their earned benefits even more than previous generations did. Meanwhile, there is no need to cut a program that has been a financial lifeline for retirees for 85 years.  Today, the average Social Security beneficiary receives a modest $1,543 per month — or about $18,500 a year. Without Social Security, 38 percent of seniors in the wealthiest country in the world would fall into poverty. Nearly half of all beneficiaries rely on Social Security for all or most of their income. Despite Social Security’s role in providing seniors with baseline financial security, the TRUST Act does not require its “rescue committees” to consider the adequacy of current benefits — or the human impact of potential cuts. Retirees would be relegated to the status of figures on a balance sheet. This is not an acceptable outcome for our parents, grandparents, and friends who depend on their monthly Social Security checks.As an amendment to the COVID relief bill, the TRUST Act would be a Trojan Horse to circumvent legislative norms for changing Social Security. The Congressional Budget Act and the Byrd Rule specifically prohibit any modifications to Social Security through budget reconciliation — the vehicle Democrats are using for COVID legislation. But the TRUST Act could sneak its way into law on the coattails of COVID relief.

 Social Security Administration sounds alarm over spike in scamming attempts - The Social Security Administration is sounding the alarm over a spike in reported scam attempts, with figures showing a surge during the pandemic. “I’m deeply troubled that crooks are still deceiving Americans,” Social Security Commissioner Andrew Saul said Wednesday on a call with reporters. “Our programs require the public to interact with us, and we cannot afford to have fraud affect that communication or the public’s trust in us.” The agency received more than 718,000 reports of telephone scams in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, totaling almost $45 million in losses. That's up from 478,000 in the previous year. Fraudulent calls during the pandemic, when millions of Americans have been homebound, went from less than 6,000 in April to more than 100,000 in September. Since Oct. 1, there have been more than 300,000 reports of scams, up more than 60 percent for all of fiscal 2019. The most common scams, Saul said, involve callers who claim to represent credit card companies, businesses and the Social Security Administration in an attempt to steal an individual’s personal information and money. Social Security, he added, have been the most common type of government imposter schemes reported to the agency and the Federal Trade Commission in the past year. “The isolation and the fear are really key elements of this,” said Gail Ennis, inspector general for the agency. 

 US Supreme Court poised to finish off Voting Rights Act - In oral arguments held Tuesday, the right-wing majority of the US Supreme Court (six of the nine justices) displayed a level of contempt for the right to vote that has no modern parallel. While the immediate legal questions at issue involve the interpretation of Section Two of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the practical and political implications might be translated into everyday language as: does the US federal government still have the authority to prohibit racial discrimination in state election laws? The cases under review—Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee and Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee—concern two racially discriminatory voting regulations in the state of Arizona, one of which invalidates any ballots cast “out of precinct” and another which criminalizes “ballot harvesting,” a politically-charged title for the simple act of transporting another person’s ballot to the appropriate polling station on their behalf. While the Supreme Court will not make a ruling in the cases until May or June, the overall tenor of the oral arguments—given the core democratic right at issue—warrants some examination. The laws in question emerged as part of the deluge of voter suppression measures following the high court’s infamous 2013 Shelby County decision striking down a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. The proliferation of “voter fraud” initiatives has only swelled since Donald Trump’s electoral defeat in November 2020. To this day, the former president and architect of the January 6 coup attempt maintains that the election was stolen through massive voter fraud, a false and unsupported conspiracy theory. In 2016 the Arizona legislature made it a felony to collect and deliver another person’s completed ballot, with very narrow exceptions, punishable by two years’ imprisonment and a $150,000 fine. The law served to disenfranchise the state’s American Indian population, only 18 percent of whom have access to regular mail services. Latino and African-American voters also make use of third-party ballot collectors more frequently than white voters, mainly because of greater poverty and social isolation. Former Arizona state senator Don Shooter championed the measure. Shooter leads the fascistic Yuma County Tea Party. He made regular appeals during his tenure to anti-Latino racism, blaming demographic changes for improving election prospects for Democrats. He infamously appeared at one legislative meeting dressed as a Mexican mariachi performer, with a cigar in his mouth and a bottle of tequila in a holster. Shooter’s racist proclivities formed part of the lower courts’ records and are not in dispute. Arizona’s out-of-precinct policy serves the same discriminatory and anti-democratic ends. In its ruling below the US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit concluded that “Arizona election officials change voters’ assigned polling places with unusual frequency” and that polling precincts are sometimes “located so counterintuitively that voters easily make mistakes.” Between 2012 and 2016 Maricopa County, home to more than 60 percent of Arizona’s population, cut the number of polling places by 70 percent, with a disproportionate reduction in minority communities. Native Americans, Hispanics and African Americans in Arizona are twice as likely as whites to vote outside of the precinct to which they had been assigned. In sum, both of the policies before the court bear the unmistakable marks of racially motivated voter suppression.

White House backs bill to expand voting rights, curb gerrymandering - The White House on Monday formally threw its backing behind a massive voting rights bill that seeks to shore up voting rights and limit gerrymandering ahead of the 2021 redistricting cycle. “In the wake of an unprecedented assault on our democracy, a never before seen effort to ignore, undermine, and undo the will of the people, and a newly aggressive attack on voting rights taking place right now all across the country, this landmark legislation is urgently needed to protect the right to vote and the integrity of our elections, and to repair and strengthen American democracy,” the White House said in a statement of administrative policy. The For the People Act, also called H.R. 1, was introduced by Democrats in 2019 and passed the House later that year, but it was never taken up by the GOP-led Senate. The House is now set to take it up again next week, this time with a slim majority in the Senate. The bill would expand opportunities to vote by mail, require states to establish electronic voter registration, and would make Election Day a federal holiday. It would also give the Justice Department greater powers to step in and enforce voting rights. Along with campaign finance reform measures, it would also require states to use independent redistricting commissions, a move that often takes the power to draw political boundaries out of the hands of state legislators. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Monday that the administration would not support nixing the filibuster to help Democrats pass legislation in the Senate. “The president's view on the filibuster is well known. He has not changed that point of view,” she said. “The president is committed to protecting the fundamental right to vote and making it easier for all eligible Americans to vote. His campaign was about fighting for democracy, and we're going to continue to fight for democracy in the White House.”

GOP AGs say House voting rights bill unconstitutional --A group of 20 Republican attorney generals are criticizing the voting rights bill approved Wednesday night in the House, writing in a letter to congressional leaders that H.R. 1 would “impose burdensome costs and regulations on state and local officials.” The attorneys general, lead by Indiana's Todd Rokita (R), said in the letter that the bill “betrays several Constitutional deficiencies and alarming mandates that, if passed, would federalize state elections and impose burdensome costs and regulations on state and local officials.” “The Act would invert that constitutional structure, commandeer state resources, confuse and muddle elections procedures, and erode faith in our elections and systems of governance. Accordingly, Members of Congress may wish to consider the Act’s constitutional vulnerabilities as well as the policy critiques of state officials,” the letter read. The House passed H.R. 1 on Wednesday in a party-line vote, with no Republicans supporting the measure. It would require states to offer mail-in ballots, a minimum of 15 days of early voting and also calls for online and same-day voter registration. President Biden praised the House and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) on Thursday for passing the bill. "The right to vote is sacred and fundamental — it is the right from which all of our other rights as Americans spring. This landmark legislation is urgently needed to protect that right, to safeguard the integrity of our elections, and to repair and strengthen our democracy,” Biden said in a statement. They GOP attorneys general criticized the bill’s expansion of mail-in voting and allowing late ballots to be accepted. They also blasted automatic voter registration, claiming it would “provide too many opportunities for non-citizens and others ineligible to vote to register and cast fraudulent ballots before officials can take preventive action.” “Perhaps most egregious is the Act’s limitations on voter ID laws,” the attorney generals continued. “Fairly considered, requiring government-issued photo identification at the polls represents nothing more than a best practice for election administration. Government-issued photo identification has been the global standard for documentary identification for decades.” Members of the GOP have largely criticized the legislation, painting it as a power grab by Democrats. A similar bill passed in the House last year but was not taken up by the Senate, then controlled by the GOP. They attorneys general promised they would seek "legal remedies" if H.R. 1 is passed and becomes law. "Despite recent calls for political unity, the Act takes a one-sided approach to governing and usurps states’ authority over elections," the letter continued. "With confidence in elections at a record low, the country’s focus should be on building trust in the electoral process. Around the nation, the 2020 general elections generated mass confusion and distrust—problems that the Act would only exacerbate.

Trump reported making more than $1.6 billion while president -Donald Trump reported making more than $1.6 billion in outside revenue and income during his four years as President of the United States, according to a review of his financial disclosures by CREW. While Trump publicly took credit for donating his taxpayer-funded salary, that ended up being less than 0.1% of the revenue and income he disclosed during his presidency. Far from being a sacrifice, the donation was merely a fig leaf to cover up four years of brazen corruption.Despite seeing a major dropoff in hospitality related revenue in 2020 due to the pandemic, in total Trump disclosed at least $1,613,583,013 in revenue from the Trump Organization and other outside income. Trump disclosed a high end of $1,790,614,202, but it is impossible to know exactly how much he pocketed as president, as some of his assets list a vague “Over $5,000,000” in yearly income and because of the structure of Trump Organization businesses, reported revenue does not necessarily reflect his personal income from them. One of the reports also included 19 days of revenue and income before Trump assumed the presidency.A major part of his Trump Organization revenue came from the marquee properties that he often visited during his presidency. The Trump Hotel in DC, his now “home” Mar-a-Lago and his golf courses Doral, Bedminister and Trump National Washington brought in a combined $620,709,659 over the last four years. He paid a combined 399 visits to these properties as president. With the pandemic shuttering hotels and golf courses, the Trump Hotel dropped from $40 million a year in revenue to $15 million from 2020 through the end of Trump’s presidency and Doral, which saw regular revenue in the mid-$70 millions, only tallied $44 million. Mar-a-Lago, however, saw a slight uptick to $24 million, as the president continued to visit during the pandemic. The Virginia-based Trump National Washington, which the president spent many weekends at during the pandemic, did not see a dropoff from the previous three years. Maybe the most notable foreign properties in Trump’s portfolio are his three European golf courses—Turnberry and Aberdeen in Scotland and Doonbeg in Ireland—which the famously debt-laden developer bought in surprising cash deals and which havehemorrhaged money every year he has owned them. But while the courses have lost money, Trump still disclosed $138,726,106 in revenue from them over the last four years, this despite revenue dropping by nearly two-thirds in 2020.What remains to be seen is whether he’ll be able to keep the grift going post-presidency. Members of Congress, his administration,political supporters, special interests and foreign governmentsflocked to his properties in numbers never seen before. He also, over and over again, directed government spending to his properties, from his insistence on doing government business at Mar-a-Lago to Mike Pence staying at Doonbeg when he had meetings all the way on the other side of Ireland to his attempt to host the G-7 Conference at his struggling Trump National Doral property.

Trump Hid ‘Fraud’ on Inheritance for Years, Niece Tells Judge - Donald Trump’s niece is balking at the former president’s claim that she waited too long to file her multi-million dollar fraud suit against him, saying she would have sued sooner if he hadn’t covered his tracks so well. Mary Trump on Friday asked a judge to deny Donald Trump’s motion to dismiss the suit, which she filed in September against her uncle and his siblings, Robert Trump and Maryanne Trump Barry. She claims they conspired to skim tens of millions of dollars off her stake in the family business for decades after her father died and left them as her fiduciaries. The suit by the daughter of Donald Trump’s late older brother, Fred Trump Jr., is one of several serious legal threats the former president faces as a private citizen. If the case in New York state court in Manhattan survives, he could be deposed under oath by the end of the year or early 2022. The fight may hinge on New York’s statute of limitations, which is two years from the time a victim “discovered the fraud, or could with reasonable diligence have discovered it.” Donald Trump, Maryanne Trump and the estate of Robert Trump, who died in August, argue their niece could have sued much earlier based on documents they handed over in other legal disputes, including a bitter court fight over the family patriarch’s 1999 will. But Mary Trump, a psychologist and author who wrote a damning tell-all book about the family last year, argues she didn’t discover the alleged decades-old scheme until October 2018, when the New York Times published a Pulitzer Prize-winning report on Donald Trump’s finances. The documents handed over to Mary Trump in earlier legal matters were either unrelated to the alleged fraud or contained false information that couldn’t have tipped her off, she said The Trump siblings “cannot avoid accountability for their fraud simply because they thought that they had gotten away with it years ago,” Mary Trump’s lawyer Roberta Kaplan said in Friday’s filing. James Kiley, who represents Donald Trump and the estate of Robert Trump, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment. Maryanne Trump Barry’s lawyer, Gary Freidman, declined to comment. Mary Trump argues her uncles and aunt shouldn’t benefit in court just because they successfully duped her for years. “The offensiveness of defendants’ past conduct -- stealing tens of millions of dollars from their own niece -- is perhaps surpassed only by the chutzpah of their current arguments for dismissal,” Mary Trump said. The fraud was only uncovered because three investigative reporters at the New York Times had “access and information that Mary did not and never could have had,” including “tens of thousands of pages of confidential records” and invoices, as well as interviews with Fred Trump’s former employees and advisers, according to Mary Trump’s brief.

Alex Jones seen on leaked video saying he's 'sick' of Donald Trump -- Prominent conspiracy theorist and far-right media personality Alex Jones is seen in a newly revealed video complaining about former President Trump and exclaiming that he wished he had never met him.  “It’s the truth, and I’m just going to say it: that I wish I never would have f---ing met Trump,” Jones says in the video, which was taken in January 2019. “I wish it never would have happened. And it’s not the attacks I’ve been through. I’m so sick of f---ing Donald Trump, man. God, I’m f---ing sick of him. And I’m not doing this because, like, I’m kissing his f---ing ass, you know. It’s, like, I’m sick of it.”The video of Jones was taken by filmmaker Caolan Robertson, who shot a documentary with Jones in Austin, Texas, and leaked it to the Southern Poverty Law Center's (SPLC) Hatewatch initiative, which tracks extremist groups. Jones has been among Trump's most vocal and bombastic supporters, often amplifying and sensationalizing false or misleading statements the former president makes and stirring up far-right users on the internet. His show on Infowars, a far-right podcasting and video broadcasting platform, rakes in millions of viewers a week. “We have only begun to resist the globalists. We have only begun our fight against their tyranny. They have tried to steal this election in front of everyone,” Jones said the night before the insurrection in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6. “I don’t know how this is all going to end, but if they want to fight, they better believe they’ve got one.” Trump praised Jones as having an "amazing reputation" when he ran for president on 2015 and appeared on his show. He has shared Infowars content to his social media feeds, from which the former president has since been banned for spreading misinformation.

Trump fires back at WSJ editorial urging GOP to move on | TheHill - Former President Trump on Thursday lashed out at the Wall Street Journal editorial board for calling on Republicans to abandon him and blamed his GOP critics for the party’s Georgia Senate losses. In a statement released Thursday, Trump accused the paper’s opinion section, which has a traditionally conservative bent, of supporting “globalist policies such as bad trade deals, open borders, and endless wars.” “They fight for RINOS that have so badly hurt the Republican Party,” Trump said. “That's where they are and that's where they will always be. Fortunately, nobody cares much about The Wall Street Journal editorial anymore. They have lost great credibility."  The statement came in response to an editorial detailing the GOP’s many electoral losses since Trump came into office.The paper wrote that despite Trump’s claims about his dominance, he lost to President Biden by 7 million votes and fumbled away two traditionally red states — Arizona and Georgia. During Trump’s tenure, Republicans lost the House, Senate and White House. The former president’s approval rating never reached above 50 percent in most polls, the editorial says. “As long as Republicans focus on the grievances of the Trump past, they won’t be a governing majority,” the editorial board concluded. The Wall Street Journal also blamed Trump for the GOP’s runoff losses in two Georgia Senate races. Those races gave Democrats a majority in the Senate and came as the GOP was torn apart by Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him through widespread fraud. Many Republicans believe Trump's claims suppressed the GOP vote in rural Georgia, where some voters didn’t think their ballots would count, and in the Atlanta suburbs, where right-leaning independents were turned off by the GOP infighting and claims about a conspiracy. “He cost the GOP two Georgia Senate races on Jan. 5 as he made his claims of election fraud the main issue rather than checking Mr. Biden andNancy Pelosi," the editorial board wrote. "Mr. Trump essentially told his Georgia supporters their votes didn’t matter, and many stayed home. The GOP lost the Senate.” Trump blasted back, blaming Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and other GOP officials in the state for not doing enough to root out fraud, which he continues to blame for his election loss. Trump also blamed the Senate losses on then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) refusal to push through a COVID-19 relief package that included $2,000 individual payments to most Americans. "This latter point was used against our Senators and the $2,000 will be approved anyway by the Democrats who bought the Georgia election—and McConnell let them do it!" Trump said.

 US militia group draws members from military and police, website leak shows  --A Guardian investigation of a website leak from the American Patriots Three Percent shows the anti-government militia group have recruited a network across the United States that includes current and former military members, police and border patrol agents. But the leak also demonstrates how the radical group has recruited from a broad swath of Americans, not just military and law enforcement. Members include both men and women, of ages ranging from their 20s to their 70s, doing jobs from medical physics to dental hygiene and living in all parts of the country. Experts say the revelations of the broad scope of the movement’s membership shows the mainstreaming of the radical politics of militia and so-called “Patriot Movement” groups during the Trump era and beyond. There has been a particular focus on the militia movement after the 6 January attack on the Capitol in Washington DC, in which a rampaging pro-Trump mob included militia members and others from far-right organizations. According to members who spoke to the Guardian, the website from which the list was leaked was set up by national leaders of Patriot Movement group, which is affiliated with the broader Three Percenter movement. Names, phone numbers and even photographs of members were obtained by activists who then posted the data to an internet archiving site, and the Guardian cross-referenced these with public records and other published materials. One of the activists who discovered the leak, whose name has been withheld due to safety concerns, said that the Wordpress site’s poorly configured membership plugin left those details exposed to public view. Additional materials seen by the Guardian confirm that claim, and show that the materials were obtained by a simple search technique. Many of the members revealed by the leak have extensive armed forces experience, including some who are still serving in branches of the US military.

 Capitol Police ask National Guard to stay for two more months: defense official (Reuters) - The Capitol Police have asked the Pentagon to extend the National Guard’s mission to protect the U.S. Capitol for an additional two months, a defense official told Reuters on Thursday. Members of the National Guard patrol at the U.S. Capitol after police warned that a militia group might try to attack the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., March 4, 2021. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts National Guard troops were dispatched to the Capitol grounds after the Jan. 6 attack by supporters of former President Donald Trump, and tall fencing has been erected to extend the security perimeter. There are currently about 5,200 National Guard troops around the building. The mission was set to end on March 12. “We should have them here as long as they are needed,” House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters at her weekly press conference. She also said retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Russel Honoré has submitted draft recommendations for long-term security improvements to the Capitol complex. She did not provide details but said Congress will have to review them and make decisions “about what is feasible.” Congress would have to approve emergency funding to implement such plans, she said. The defense official, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Capitol Police’s request had been received by the Pentagon and would be examined, and said it was highly likely that it would be approved. Federal prosecutors have charged more than 300 people for involvement in the Jan. 6 attack that led to five deaths, including a policeman. Those arrested include members of armed militia groups such as the Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters. Security around the Capitol was tight on Thursday after police warned that a militia group might try to attack it to mark a key date on the calendar of the baseless QAnon conspiracy theory. A bulletin issued on Tuesday by the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation said an unidentified group of “militia violent extremists” discussed plans in February to “take control of the U.S. Capitol and remove Democratic lawmakers on or about March 4.” March 4 is the day when QAnon adherents believe that Trump, who was defeated by President Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 election, will be sworn in for a second term in office. Up until 1933, March 4 was the date of the inauguration.

US House of Representatives adjourns under threat of fascist violence - The US House of Representatives canceled a session scheduled for Thursday morning, March 4, and adjourned for the weekend, after security agencies reported credible threats of right-wing violence against the Capitol set for that day. March 4 has been widely cited on right-wing social media as the day for an attack on the Capitol, similar to what took place on January 6, 2021. In the latest convoluted conspiracy theory promoted in QAnon circles, March 4 was the day that former president Trump would return to power, displacing the “illegitimate” Joe Biden. The date was chosen for its historical antecedents, since US presidents were inaugurated on March 4 until Franklin Roosevelt, whose second inaugural was set for January 20 under the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, adopted in 1933. In an effort to downplay the extraordinary character of this surrender to fascist terrorism, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held her regular Thursday morning news conference and repeatedly described the QAnon threats of a March 4 attack as “silly.” She said that the House had always planned to adjourn at noon after a brief morning session, to allow House Republicans to hold an “issues conference” scheduled for later that day. The votes planned for Thursday morning were held on Wednesday evening instead, which Pelosi described as a “convenience” rather than a capitulation to threats of right-wing violence. At the same time, Pelosi announced that retired General Russell Honoré would be submitting his review of Capitol Hill security later in the month, which would include an assessment of such issues as a permanent guarded perimeter around the Capitol and more aggressive use of Capitol Police to guard members both in the Capitol and its adjacent office buildings and in their home districts. Meanwhile, the Capitol Police have requested a 60-day extension of the deployment of some of the 5,200 National Guard troops activated in Washington in response to the January 6 attack and subsequent security threats. Acting Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman told a House hearing Wednesday that threats against individual members of Congress were up 94 percent compared to previous years. The troop deployment was initially set to end on March 12, but the planned address by President Joe Biden to a joint session of Congress has been pushed back at least until mid-March, and that event is viewed as the next likely flashpoint for threats of fascist violence at the Capitol.

Pelosi warns of threat from 'all the president's men' - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday called for more funding for Capitol security, citing the ongoing threat of violence from "all the president's men" — a reference to the mob of former President Trump's supporters who ransacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. "Between COVID — where we need to have vaccinations more broadly in the Capitol so that many more people can come here and do their jobs — [and] the threat of all the president's men out there, we have to ensure with our security that we are safe enough to do our job, but not impeding [that work]," Pelosi told reporters at a press briefing. The security issue has been front and center since the mob overwhelmed law enforcement officers and forced the evacuation of lawmakers who were certifying President Biden's victory in the Electoral College. On Wednesday, the House moved up a vote because Capitol Police and the FBI had warned that some of the militia groups participating in the Jan. 6 rampage had designs on a second attack on March 4 — a symbolic date which marked the inauguration of presidents until the early 1930s. Those conservative conspiracy theorists, law enforcers warned, believed Trump would somehow return to the White House on that day. The threat of another violent attack on the Capitol had unnerved many lawmakers who were targeted on Jan. 6. Pelosi on Thursday, however, downplayed the significance of the new security threat in the decision to keep the House out of session on Thursday. She noted that Republicans launch their annual issues retreat Thursday afternoon, and the House had a short floor schedule already in place to accommodate that event. "I don't think anybody should take any encouragement that, because some trouble-makers might show up, that we changed our whole schedule," Pelosi said. "No, we just moved it a few hours, and it largely will accommodate the Republicans going to their own [conference]." Yet a number of Democrats — lawmakers and leadership aides alike — had said Wednesday that the schedule change was a direct result of the violent threats. And Pelosi on Thursday acknowledged that security concerns were a factor, noting that the logistics of keeping 435 House lawmakers safe is a taller order than ensuring the safety of 100 senators, who remain in session Thursday. "Frankly, there are a lot of us," she said. "The Senate is in, and they should be. We're at least four times more people, and therefore all that that implies in terms of numbers of people in the Capitol — if in fact there's any troublemakers around." The comments come as the Capitol Police have asked the Pentagon to extend the deployment of thousands of National Guard troops, who have been stationed around the Capitol complex since Jan. 6. Pelosi declined to comment on the prospect of keeping those troops around for another two months, deflecting questions of Capitol security to the officials in charge of it. “We have to have what we need, when we need it, and in the numbers that we need it," Pelosi said. "But that's a security decision.”

'QAnon shaman' is 'wounded' Trump hasn't helped him --The man known as the “QAnon Shaman,” who was seen shirtless and wearing bull horns in the U.S. Capitol during the deadly rioting on Jan. 6, said in his first interview since being jailed that he was "wounded" that former President Trump did not offer to help him. In the interview, "60 Minutes+" reporter Laurie Segall asked Jacob Chansley if he regretted his loyalty to Trump. "I developed a lot of sympathy for Donald Trump because it seemed like the media was picking on him and seemed like the establishment was going after him unnecessarily or unfairly, and I had been a victim of that all of my life, whether it be in school or at home. So in many ways I identify with a lot of the negative things that he was going through," Chansley said. "I honestly believed and still believe that he cares about the Constitution, that he cares about the American people, and that's also why and you know it wounded me so deeply and why it disappointed me so greatly that I and others did not get a pardon," Chansley added. Chansley requested a pardon shortly before Trump left office, a request that was not granted. Shortly before his term ended, Trump issued several pardons to his supporters such as former White House strategist Stephen Bannon, though he did not issue any to the alleged Capitol rioters. Though he remains loyal to Trump, Chansley said he regrets entering the Capitol "with every fiber of my being." Chansley, also known as Jake Angeli, also shot back at assertions that his actions were an attack on the U.S., saying that characterization was "inaccurate entirely." “My actions on Jan. 6. How would I describe them? Well, I sang a song,” Chansley said. “I also stopped people from stealing and vandalizing that sacred space. OK, I actually stopped somebody from stealing muffins out of the break room.” “I consider myself a lover of my country. I consider myself a believer in the Constitution. I consider myself a believer in truth and our founding principles. I consider myself a believer in God,” he added. Prosecutors allege that Chansley wielded a weapon, a spear attached to a flagpole, while inside the Capitol and left a threatening note for former Vice President Mike Pence.

Poet Amanda Gorman shares of encounter with security guard: 'This is the reality' -Inaugural poet Amanda Gorman took to Twitter on Friday night to share her experience with a security guard who dubbed her "suspicious," presumably due to the color of her skin. "A security guard tailed me on my walk home tonight," the 22-year-old tweeted, adding that he demanded to know if she lived in the apartment complex. "I showed my keys & buzzed myself into my building," she added. Gorman claimed the guard then left, without apologizing for his accusatory actions. She wrote that the situation shined a light on the racial issues the U.S. is facing. "This is the reality of black girls: One day you’re called an icon, the next day, a threat," she said.

Facebook and Google vs the Free Press - From France to Australia to the US state of Maryland, the free press is waging a battle for survival against Facebook and Google. Besides being gushing firehoses of COVID and election disinformation and QAnon conspiracies, another of Google and Facebook’s dangerous impacts is undermining the financial stability of media outlets all over the world.Where is the Biden administration and European Commission in this fight? A lot is at stake, yet so far they have been quiet as church mice.How do Google and Facebook threaten the Free Press? These two companies alone suck up an astounding 60% of all online advertising in the world (outside China). With Amazon taking another 9 percent, that leaves a mere 30% of global digital ad revenue to be split among thousands of media outlets, many of them local publications. With digital online advertising now comprising over half of all ad spendng (and projected to grow further), that has greatly contributed to underfunded and failing news industries in country after country, including in Europe and the US.Australia’s situation is typical. Its competition commission found that, for every $100 spent by online advertisers in Australia, $47 goes to Google and $24 to Facebook (71%), even as traditional advertising has declined. Various studies have found that the majority of people who access their news online don’t go to the original news source, instead they access it via Facebook’s and Google’s platforms which are cleverly designed to hold users’ attention. Many users rarely click through the links, instead they absorb the gist of the news from the platforms’ headlines and preview blurbs.Consequently, Facebook and Google receive the lion’s share of revenue from digital ads, rather than the original news sources receiving it. Note that Facebook and Google could tweak their design and algorithms to purposefully drive users to the original news sources’ websites. But they don’t.

 New York Times stokes sex scandal targeting New York Governor Cuomo - A growing crisis surrounds New York Governor Andrew Cuomo over allegations of sexual harassment made by three women, two of whom are former aides. The New York Times, which has spearheaded the recent use of misconduct claims to force out prominent politicians, artists and others, has played a central role here too, soliciting one of the complainant’s allegations. The knives are clearly out for Cuomo in certain circles, although to what precise ends are not yet apparent. Behind the screen of this sex scandal, as is often the case in the US, political scores and conflicts are being fought out. Cuomo has undoubtedly alienated a great many people in the Democratic Party and beyond. The real issues are being concealed from the public, and the inevitable outcome of such a sordid affair will be a further shift to the right in official politics.Cuomo was in the midst of the controversy about the state’s nursing home deaths when Lindsey Boylan, a former Cuomo aide and current candidate for the borough presidency of Manhattan, published an account on February 24 of alleged sexual harassment from 2016 through 2018. According to Boylan, Cuomo gave her an unsolicited kiss, invited her to play strip poker and made inappropriate comments. In December, Boylan made a vague claim that Cuomo acted inappropriately toward her, but she only provided specifics for the first time last week.

Con Men in Tights – […] Perhaps the poster child of this transition arrived in 2015, when the mint-colored, feather-adorned investment app Robinhood was trotted out to the mobile marketplace like a prized pony, after having raised $13 million and acquired a waitlist of nearly one million people. Interestingly, Robinhood claimed to have a distinctly ideological mission: to “democratize finance.” But like the eponymous Medieval hero, its mission was no more than a myth.At first blush, Robinhood’s benevolence seemed plausible. The app boasted zero transaction fees, no minimum balance, and awarded new Robinhood users with free stock as a perk of signing up. The startup’s thirty-four-year-old co-founder, Vlad Tenev, a Stanford graduate from Bulgaria whose Soviet-era roots lent him a decidedly romantic notion of laissez-faire capitalism, has spoken ad nauseam about Robinhood’s potential for pro-social disruption. “For Robinhood,” he said in a 2017 interview with Thrive Global, “the end goal isn’t about becoming another brokerage, but about creating a world where everyone can take advantage of the most lucrative form of wealth creation.” In a CNBC op-ed from this year, Tenev dared (or deigned) to redefine the American Dream. “Becoming an investor is the new American dream,” Tenev’s headline read, “just like home ownership was before.” He explained the moral impetus for Robinhood’s origin:While the market is theoretically open to everyone equally, some people have had better access, better tools, and a clearer invitation to participate. Others have been held back. Just 10 percent of US households hold 87 percent of the total value of stocks, and barely half of U.S. households participate in the stock market at all.We conceived Robinhood in the wake of the Occupy Wall Street movement to level that playing field. We pioneered commission-free trading, enabling millions of underserved people to get more involved in the economy and to make choices to shape their own financial futures.Tenev’s attribution of Occupy as Robinhood’s moral inspiration reveals the flimsiness of the company’s mythology: it offers a cosmetic solution to a structural problem. This is to say that you would have found approximately zero Occupy demonstrators condemning commission fees as one of Wall Street’s most depraved indulgences. If there is one thing to be gleaned from Occupy, in all its strategic discombobulation, it’s that wealth inequality is a structural issue whose redressal requires structural solutions. Demands to “democratize” finance were not on the table, since the financial mechanisms of economic inequality were deemed undemocratic by their very nature.

 Bitcoin and Robinhood will end badly for those who can least afford it – Roubini - The US economy’s K-shaped recovery is under way. Those with stable full-time jobs, benefits, and a financial cushion are faring well as stock markets climb to new highs. Those who are unemployed or partially employed in low-value-added blue-collar and service jobs – the new “precariat” – are saddled with debt, have little financial wealth, and face diminishing economic prospects.These trends indicate a growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. The new stock market highs mean nothing to most people. The bottom 50% of the wealth distribution holds just 0.7% of total equity market assets, whereas the top 10% commands 87.2%, and the top 1% holds 51.8%. The 50 richest people have as much wealth as the 165 million people at the bottom.Rising inequality has followed the ascent of “big tech”. As many as three retail jobs are lost for every job that Amazon creates, and similar dynamics hold true in other sectors dominated by tech giants. But today’s social and economic stresses are not new. For decades, strapped workers have not been able to keep up with the Joneses, owing to the stagnation of real (inflation-adjusted) median income alongside rising costs of living and spending expectations.For decades, the “solution” to this problem was to “democratise” finance so that poor and struggling households could borrow more to buy homes they couldn’t afford, and then use those homes as cash machines. This expansion of consumer credit – mortgages and other debt – resulted in a bubble that ended with the 2008 financial crisis, when millions lost their jobs, homes, and savings.Now, the same millennials who were shafted over a decade ago are being duped again. Workers who rely on gig, part-time, or freelance “employment” are being offered a new rope with which to hang themselves in the name of “financial democratization.” Millions have opened accounts on Robinhood and other investment apps, where they can leverage their scant savings and incomes several times over to speculate on worthless stocks.The recent GameStop narrative, featuring a united front of heroic small day traders fighting evil short-selling hedge funds, masks the ugly reality that a cohort of hopeless, jobless, skill-less, debt-burdened individuals is being exploited once again. Many have been convinced that financial success lies not in good jobs, hard work, and patient saving and investment, but in get-rich-quick schemes and wagers on inherently worthless assets such as cryptocurrencies (or “shitcoins” as I prefer to call them).Make no mistake: The populist meme in which an army of millennial Davids takes down a Wall Street Goliath is merely serving another scheme to fleece clueless amateur investors. As in 2008, the inevitable result will be another asset bubble. The difference is that this time, recklessly populist members of Congress have taken to inveighing against financial intermediaries for not permitting the vulnerable to leverage themselves even more.

The Tech Wreck of Zero-Dividend Stocks Arrives on the Wings of Rising Treasury Yields -  Pam Martens ~ Pull up a chair and get comfy. You’re about to watch the first act in what is likely to be a long-running show called “The Great Tech Wreck of Zero-Dividend Stocks.”The show’s sponsor is rising yields on U.S. Treasury notes which make tech stocks that have ballooned in price (as the Fed held interest rates artificially low) and pay no cash dividends to compete with the rising yields, particularly unattractive. As the chart above indicates, yields on the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes have been rising sharply since early August, with the yield more than tripling on both. The 10-year Note has moved from 0.50 percent since early August to 1.46 percent early this morning. In the same span of time, the yield on the 5-year note has spiked from 0.20 percent to 0.72 percent. The upward surge in yields comes despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has been buying $80 billion each month in various maturities of Treasury notes and bonds. That started in June of last year. As of this past Wednesday, the Fed owned $4.8 trillion of Treasury securities, the majority of that resulting from its purchases of Treasuries (QE programs) after the 2008 Wall Street crash. If you want to keep tabs on how this show plays out going forward, the Ark Innovation ETF (Exchange Traded Fund; Symbol ARKK) is a good chart to watch. It lost 6.29 percent yesterday but some of its top ten holdings were down as much as 8 to more than 10 percent. ARKK has been in a steep descent since mid February. Not one of its top-ten holdings pays even a penny of cash dividends. (See chart below.) ARKK’s largest holding is electric vehicle maker, Tesla, headed by SEC tormenter, Elon Musk. Tesla states this on the company’s website: “Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.” Another giant tech name that pays no dividend is Amazon. Its share price is down more than 15 percent since September. Most Americans do not realize that cash dividends on stocks have historically represented, in real terms (after inflation), approximately 75 percent of stocks’ long-term total return.

 Fed digital currency gains steam with Democrats in power— Democratic leaders in the Biden administration and Congress are raising the volume on proposals for the Federal Reserve to issue a digital currency and establish government-backed accounts to expand banking options to underserved consumers. It has been no secret that the Fed is studying the idea of issuing a digital dollar on the heels of other countries, such as China and Japan, actively testing their own central bank digital currencies. But last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed the administration's endorsement of a U.S.-backed digital currency, saying it could result in "faster, safer and cheaper payments" for U.S. residents who lack bank accounts. On Monday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who has championed legislation to create FedAccounts, urged the Fed to move ahead. He called the Fed's study of a central bank digital currency "a natural complement" to his plan for the U.S. to provide every citizen with a free account that they could access at banks, credit unions and post offices. "Access to the payment system is critical to full participation in our economy," Brown said in a letter to top Fed leaders that was obtained by American Banker. "As we have seen through this crisis, it has only become more difficult to use cash, as people try to use digital platforms to reduce their exposure to the coronavirus." Democrats and consumer advocates say that a U.S. digital dollar could strengthen access for unbanked and underbanked consumers to the financial system. Other proponents of a government-backed digital dollar say that it is necessary in order to keep up with global counterparts that have already issued digital currencies. "We need one in terms of continuing to be the reserve currency in the world," said Dina Ellis Rochkind, an attorney with Paul Hastings who has served as a senior financial services staffer for Republicans in the House and Senate. But Yellen zeroed in on the goal of giving consumers easier access to their money. “Too many Americans don’t have access to easy payments systems and banking accounts, and I think this is something that a digital dollar, a central bank digital currency, could help with,” she said last month at a New York Times virtual event. But the policy still needs to be hammered out as the Fed hears from stakeholders, including banks and financial technology companies, about what a U.S. digital dollar would mean for existing financial institutions and currencies. Observers are still debating how a government-backed digital currency would be implemented to ensure it doesn’t displace private sector institutions. The Fed is already busy constructing its real-time payments service, FedNow, which is seen as a potential competitor for private-sector payments options. “There's a fear that some want to use the digital dollar as a way to kill private-sector innovation,” Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing last month.

Powell pledges Fed easy policy patience, markets look impatient (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday repeated his pledge to keep credit loose and flowing until Americans are back to work, rebutting investors who have openly doubted if he can stick to that promise once the pandemic passes and the economy surges on its own. With vaccines rolling out and the government fiscal taps open “there is good reason to think we will make more progress soon” toward the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and 2% sustained inflation, Powell told a Wall Street Journal forum. Markets seemed impatient for more from the Fed chief to address the move up in bond yields, sending the 10-year Treasury interest rate back above 1.5% and knocking stocks on Wall Street. The S&P 500 was down 1.41%; The tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 2.13%, briefly moving more than 10% down from its record closing high on Feb 12. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose to 1.5362%; 2s ticked lower to 0.1447% The U.S. dollar index rose to its highest since Feb 5 and was last up 0.47% “They’re trying to somehow thread that needle between not showing too much concern and not tipping their hand toward any potential yield curve control or any changes in policy while also acknowledging ‘yeah, we’re watching this.’” “The market is perhaps hoping that the Fed may make some adjustments in the composition of their quantitative ease and yield curve control. I think the market would like to see the Fed perhaps come out and say maybe they would begin buying more longer duration and buying less shorter duration rather than the mix they’re doing at the present time. So there may be some disappointments there. You would think with the Fed meeting less than two weeks away that if in fact the Fed was going to make a policy change like that this would have been the perfect trial balloon to sort of message that to the markets.”

 Walmart Lures Goldman Bankers in Bid to Fight Wall Street - Walmart Inc. has lured a pair of senior Goldman Sachs bankers to help lead a new fintech startup as the retail giant muscles into the banking business. Omer Ismail, the head of Goldman’s consumer bank, is making a surprise exit to the fintech, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The world’s largest retailer made a splash last month after disclosing plans to offer financial services with an independent venture in a tie-up with investment firm Ribbit Capital without offering much detail. David Stark, one of his top lieutenants at Goldman, will join him in the new venture, the people said, asking not to be identified as the moves haven’t been announced. “Our business has serious momentum and a deep and growing bench of talent,” said Andrew Williams, a Goldman Sachs spokesman. “We wish these two well.” Walmart didn’t immediately respond to calls seeking comment. Walmart’s move -- depriving one of Wall Street’s elite firms of the talent atop its own foray into online banking -- underscores the seriousness of the retailer’s intent to intertwine itself in the financial lives of its customers. The audacious poaching punctuates years of warnings by bank leaders that their industry faces tough new challengers, after regulators smoothed the way for corporate giants and Silicon Valley to expand into payments and other services. Ismail, in particular, offers rare credentials. He’s credited as one of the key architects behind Goldman’s push into Main Street, seeing through the growth of Marcus into a billion-dollar business in five years. The departures are a setback for Goldman, which had just entrusted Ismail and Stark with bigger roles. Ismail formally assumed control of the consumer bank at the start of the year. But he’s been tied to it ever since Goldman’s merchant bank set up the side project several years ago. The investment bank was looking to grow beyond its traditional strengths, and Ismail helped formulate the plan for Marcus -- the biggest strategy refresh the firm has seen in three decades. The company ultimately resolved to make itself a serious force in digital banking. Stark played a key role in Goldman’s partnership with Apple Inc. on a credit card, for which the bank provides the financial backbone. Weeks ago, Goldman named Stark as the head of large partnerships. That’s a key peg for Marcus’s growth, which has already struck deals with Amazon, JetBlue and even Walmart. Fintech ventures typically offer customers low-cost products by eschewing physical branches, and instead using online portals or phones to provide loans, savings accounts or investment options. Walmart said in January it aims to combine its “retail knowledge and scale with Ribbit’s fintech expertise” to serve shoppers and associates. Walmart will own a majority of the new venture, but in Ribbit, it has a partner that’s made big bets in the fintech space including backing Robinhood Markets Inc., the popular no-fee brokerage. In December, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved a final rule governing so-called industrial loan companies that would make it easier for major businesses to seek banking charters while escaping capital and liquidity demands faced by dedicated financial firms. That’s a worrying prospect for banks facing the risk of going up against against corporate behemoths that could lean on their huge customer base to eat into the banking wallet.

Banks lobby Congress to postpone PPP deadline - Lenders are pressing Congress to extend the Paycheck Protection Program’s end date, citing rules that have yet to be issued and the need for legislative fixes. Lending under the latest version of the PPP is set to expire on March 31. While the Small Business Administration has approved $156 billion of loans this year, many lenders and small businesses continue to complain about complications with the application process. The Biden administration created more confusion last week when it changed the formula for calculating loan amounts but declined to apply it retroactively to pre-existing loans. Lenders are still waiting for the SBA to release interim rules for the new methodology. Lawmakers including Ben Cardin, D-Md., who chairs the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee, are vowing to hold a hearing this month to look into the formula issue. But it is unclear if lawmakers can intervene before the program is set to end. An extension is needed to give lenders a chance to sort through the recent changes, said Jill Castilla, president and CEO of the $327 million-asset Citizens Bank of Edmond in Oklahoma. “Let’s get the rules out, advocate for an extension and then lobby” for revised guidance, Castilla said. “As long as the crisis continues, this program needs to continue.” Broader application of the funding formula, announced on Feb. 22, would give the smallest businesses, sole proprietors, independent contractors and other self-employed entrepreneurs a chance at getting a bigger loan. Under the revised guidelines, loans for microbusinesses would be calculated off gross income rather than net profit. PPP lenders urged the SBA, which is managing the program with the Treasury Department, to make retroactive payments a priority as soon as the new formula was announced. The agency said it lacked the administrative authority to implement such a change. “Agencies engage in retroactive rulemaking when they have statutory authority to do so,” an SBA spokesman said. “Such authority was given to the agency in the Economic Aid Act [only] in relation to farmers and ranchers.” The most recent stimulus law was enacted on Dec. 27.

  Lenders wary as Fed's PPP facility nears deadline - A liquidity facility created by the Federal Reserve to undergird the Paycheck Protection Program is set to expire on March 31, threatening to remove funding for a number of lenders that are originating and buying PPP loans. The Fed has been offering loans with low interest rates to lenders through the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility in an effort to promote more lending under the massive rescue program administered by the Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department. The PPPLF has provided nondepository institutions their first access to Fed financing. Several PPP participants, including community development financial institutions and nonbank SBA lenders, are lobbying the Fed for an extension of the facility. They are hoping legislators will do the same for the PPP, which is also set to end in less than four weeks. “It will be very important to extend the facility,” said Jeannine Jacokes, CEO of Partners for the Common Good. Her organization represents CDFIs, many of which have been using the PPPLF to fund originations in underserved communities. “This program may have not gotten as much PR as the PPP, but it’s one of those critical tools to lenders,” Jacokes said. The facility can be extended without congressional approval. That has already occurred twice, when the Federal Reserve, with support from the Treasury Department, moved an original August end date, initially to Dec. 31 and then March 31. A Fed spokesman declined to comment. The Treasury Department did not immediately respond.

Big banks don’t need further relief from capital rule- Warren, Brown — Two top Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee are urging bank regulators not to extend relief for the largest institutions from a key capital requirement. To help banks support the economic recovery, the agencies took steps last year to ease compliance with the supplementary leverage ratio, a rigorous measure of their capital relative to their entire balance sheet. That relief is set to expire at the end of this month. But as some banks plead with regulators to allow for more time, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said in a Feb. 26 letter to the heads of the agencies that that would be “a grave error.” “The banks’ requests for an extension of this relief appear to be an attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to weaken one of the most important post-crisis regulatory reforms,” the lawmakers wrote to the heads of the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.The industry has argued that, without the relief, it is difficult for banks to absorb the influx of deposits in the system and still reach the minimum SLR. But if that is the case, Warren and Brown argued, regulators could take other steps besides easing the capital measure, such as strengthening restrictions on shareholder payouts. “To the extent there are concerns about banks’ ability to accept customer deposits and absorb reserves due to leverage requirements, regulators should suspend bank capital distributions,” the senators wrote. The SLR requires banks with more than $250 billion of assets to maintain an extra cushion of high-quality capital against their total assets. Banks must maintain a minimum 3% ratio against their total leverage exposure. The ratio is 5% for the largest bank holding companies. The Fed and other agencies last spring allowed banks subject to the SLR to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and deposits at Fed regional banks from the calculation of the ratio. The exemptions, set to expire March 31, were meant to free up resources to make loans and alleviate stress in the Treasury market. But Warren and Brown said there was little evidence the SLR relief led to more lending, noting that the “share of banks’ assets devoted to loans is now at a 36-year low.” Banks should be focused on conserving capital in preparation for potential losses, they said. “During the last three recessions, banks’ loan losses did not peak until at least a year after the start of the recession,” the letter said. “Reducing banks’ capital reserves needed to absorb these potential losses could result in significant risks to banks and to the stability of the financial system.” Warren and Brown also suggested that if regulators were concerned about banks’ lending capacity, they could instead put more restrictions on the money that institutions pay out to shareholders.

D.C. power shift complicates Fed decision on capital rule— Pressure continues to mount on the Federal Reserve from both sides as the central bank mulls an extension of temporary capital relief for the big banks. The Fed last April announced a one-year easing of the supplementary leverage ratio, a tough measure of capital strength, for bank holding companies with more than $250 billion of assets. It was followed the next month by similar moves from other agencies for banks under their watch. With the Fed's measure slated to expire on March 31, big banks say they still need the relief to support the economic recovery and ease strains in the Treasury market. But the power shift in Washington following the November election — putting Democrats in control of the White House and Congress — has emboldened voices on the left to push back, saying banks have already had enough of a break. “It's an early test of whether the shifting political winds and the new congressional leadership and evolving list of new regulators is going to change the decision making on this,” said Sheila Bair, a former Republican-appointed chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. “I hope it does.” The supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, is an extra cushion imposed on the biggest banks, measuring their capital against their entire balance sheets. The temporary steps announced last spring allowed banks to exclude Treasuries and reserves held at the Fed from the SLR calculation, enabling them to expand their balance sheets and help the support the economic during the coronavirus pandemic. The industry says the relief should remain in place as banks and the government continue to respond to economic need resulting from COVID-19. "Members believe that the extension of the [Fed's interim final rule] is critical to the continued ability of banking organizations to continue accepting deposits and acting as intermediaries in the U.S. Treasury market," according to a Feb. 23 letter to the central bank by three financial services trade groups. But key Democrats and other big-bank critics have come out strongly against the Fed and the agencies prolonging the relief. They argue that a further capital reprieve is unnecessary as long as banks continue to pay dividends to their shareholders. “The banks’ requests for an extension of this relief appear to be an attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to weaken one of the most important post-crisis regulatory reforms,” said Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in a Feb. 26 letter to the heads of the agencies. Banks subject to the SLR must maintain a minimum 3% ratio against their total leverage exposure. The ratio is 5% for the largest bank holding companies. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers Feb. 23 that the central bank had not reached a decision on an extension yet.

 The Fed is dialing up the pressure on banks to ditch Libor - The Federal Reserve is intensifying its scrutiny of banks' efforts to shed their reliance on the London interbank offered rate, and has begun compiling more detailed evidence on their progress, according to multiple people with knowledge of the matter. Banks are being asked for specifics on their Libor exposure, their plans for amending contracts tied to the benchmark, and the fallback provisions being utilized to facilitate the shift to alternative rates, said the people, who requested not to be named given the sensitivity of the inquiries. The move is viewed partly as way for the Fed to telegraph the urgency of the transition, but also as a prelude to concrete supervisory action in the months ahead. Banks have less than a year before the Fed has indicated it will stop allowing them to enter into new contracts pegged to Libor, a bedrock of the financial system being phased out by global policy makers due to a lack of underlying trading and following a high-profile rigging scandal. Still, the rate — which underpins trillions of dollar of assets — has proven difficult to dislodge. Officials last year indicated they would delay the end of certain tenors by 18 months amid concerns over financial stability stemming in part from the industry's lack of preparation. A spokesperson for the Fed declined to comment, while banks are prevented from discussing confidential supervisory communications. "We can expect the regulators to be identifying gaps in banks' programs," said Graham Broyd, founder of consultancy Broyd Partners and a former member of the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, the Fed-backed body guiding the U.S. Libor transition. "Banks will need to have clear plans and actions for delivery later in the year, without which there are expected to be regulatory consequences." Banks have received questions and requests for data in recent months both in writing and via meetings with Fed representatives, according to some of the people familiar. The inquires are targeted toward Wall Street and regional lenders, rather than smaller community banks. One banking executive said broad-brush reports on transition progress don't cut it anymore, and officials are asking for more information with every inquiry. An executive at another bank downplayed the significance of the shift, saying global regulators have been asking about Libor exposures for a while.

BankThink: Write banking rules that withstand political winds - Leveling the financial-regulatory playing field requires a complete rewrite of U.S. financial services law, action that would be stoutly and effectively resisted by battalions of well-paid lobbyists. A politically plausible approach to reducing many of the regulatory hills and raising up the valleys instead uses the body of current law to the greatest extent possible to allow access to taxpayer-backed benefits only to companies that are directly (or indirectly) bound by the rules established to protect taxpayers and the nation more generally. There is, though, a middle and more practical course. It does four things: applies like-kind rules to like-kind activities; reduces unnecessary barriers to financial services for underserved or at-risk households; creates special-purpose, regulated charters focused solely on equality finance under rules ensuring that regulatory rewards are obtained only upon providing high-value equality services; and designs a new payment system that includes digital currency crafted with equality objectives kept firmly in mind. So why not just deregulate? Wholesale deregulation would certainly be popular to a phalanx of powerful financial industry lobbyists. However, industry-focused deregulation without equality-enhancing recalibration would repeat all too many previous incidents in which policymakers rushed to reduce what was described as unnecessary “regulatory burden” on grounds that it increases “American competitiveness.” These ended in disastrous financial-market and even macroeconomic crashes. We know this going back to the 1920s, when Congress roared into a regulatory rewrite dissolving many of the rules on finance demanded by Theodore Roosevelt and his progressive allies. We learned this again in the 1980s, when the savings-and-loan crisis was fired up by regulatory relaxations, such as a memorable plan allowing regulators to issue “net-worth certificates” that masqueraded as capital in the name of increased homeownership. We learned the dangers of carefree deregulation the hard way all over again in 2008. Even as finance trembled in 2007 ahead of the great financial crisis, the Bush administration’s Treasury Department issued a “blueprint” replete with regulatory rollbacks that made big banks, securities firms and private-equity companies very, very happy. There wasn’t time enough to roll back all these rules before the 2008 financial cataclysm eviscerated the industry. In 2010, Congress reversed course, directing a tough increase in safety-and-soundness regulation. This made banking safer but most of us still poorer.

 Fed orders Nano Banc in California to reduce CRE concentration - The holding companies of Nano Banc in Irvine, Calif., have agreed to take a series of steps to improve the bank’s finances and reduce its risk in commercial real estate lending, according to an enforcement action issued by the Federal Reserve Thursday. Allegiant United Holdings and Nano Financial Holdings, which control the $1 billion-asset Nano Banc, must submit a plan within 30 days on how improvements will be made, along with new guidelines for risk tolerance and updates to its CRE lending strategy, according to an agreement with the Fed. The companies will also be required to reduce the bank’s existing concentration of commercial real estate loans. If more loan-loss reserves are needed, the bank will be required to set aside higher provisions. As of Dec. 31, more than half of Nano Banc’s $886 million of loans were backed by commercial properties, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data. The Fed is also placing a cap on new acquisitions by Nano Banc. Specifically, the bank will not be allowed to purchase any loan or asset that exceeds 5% of its total assets without Fed approval during the term of the agreement. Nano Banc is also barred from paying dividends or taking on more debt without a sign-off from the Fed. An outside firm will also conduct an audit and report on board and management structure as well as any staffing needs, per the agreement. The qualifications of the bank’s board and senior management will come under scrutiny. The board will be required to submit a plan after the audit is completed addressing any shortcomings and whether new directors or managers will be hired. Going forward, the companies will be required to submit a budget for 2021 and update the Fed on the progress of its capital plans. Nano Banc started out as a fintech that was focused on making wire transfers easier and to root out fraud in the space. In 2018, the company jumped into commercial banking by acquiring Commerce Bank of Temecula Valley in Murrieta, Calif. The move by Nano Banc’s regulator comes amid mounting worries over CRE while the COVID-19 pandemic drags on. More than a fifth of hotel loans and 10.8% of loans backed by retail properties were delinquent in February, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report Thursday, though those figures did decline slightly from the previous month.

New indictments issued in case of failed Chicago bank - A new set of indictments tied to the December 2017 failure of Washington Federal Bank for Savings alleges that four employees and several borrowers conspired to embezzle millions of dollars from the Chicago bank. A federal grand jury in Chicago added James Crotty, a former vice president at the bank, to a list of defendants facing charges of falsifying bank records to conceal embezzlement from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The Justice Department announced in August that Rosallie Corvitte, the bank’s chief financial officer, and Jane Iriondo, its corporate secretary, had been indicted on charges of falsifying records and helping a customer commit embezzlement. Alicia Mandujano, a loan servicer, and Cathy Torres, a loan officer, were also charged. The new charges are tied to roughly $31 million in bank funds that were allegedly embezzled, according to a press release from the FDIC's Office of Inspector General. Crotty and the other defendants have been accused of transferring the funds to four clients. The latest indictments allege that at least $1.6 million of embezzled funds were used for the benefit of John Gembara, the bank’s former chairman, president and CEO. Gembara was found dead at a customer's home two weeks before the bank failed. The Cook County Medical Examiner’s office ruled the death a suicide. Washington Federal Bank for Savings was closed when the OCC determined that it was insolvent and had at least $66 million in nonperforming loans. The FDIC sold the bank to Royal Savings Bank in Chicago. A subsequent review by an internal government watchdog agency determined that supervisory lapses at the OCC made the failure costlier to the Deposit Insurance Fund than it should have been. The Treasury Department’s Office of Inspector General determined in a material-loss review released in November 2018 that if examiners had acted in a timelier manner, the fraud “may have been uncovered sooner and the loss to the DIF and individual account holders may have been reduced.”

New administration poses new challenges for credit union advocacy - Credit unions have their work cut out for them if they hope to see some of the industry’s priorities passed into law this year. That was the message from several speakers during the Credit Union National Association’s online Governmental Affairs Conference, which kicked off Tuesday. Because Democrats have such narrow margins in the House and Senate, they are likely to be particularly aggressive in trying to push their agenda, since they could lose that advantage in the 2022 midterm elections, Becca Durr, CUNA’s director of advocacy, said during a panel discussion moderated by Ryan Donovan, the trade group’s chief advocacy officer. Those narrow margins may put moderate Democrats such as Sen. Joe Machin, D-W.Va., in positions to help move forward items of importance to credit unions, said Jeremy Empol, vice president of federal government affairs at the California and Nevada Credit Union Leagues. He added that while leaders in both parties may draw the headlines, those with lower profiles may be more likely to help the industry advance its priorities. Figures such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., may be well known, but they’re less likely to be the champion for a particular cause. Instead, said Empol, “they’re going to nudge it along on the floor” when the issue finally comes up for a vote. Robert Flock, who also holds the title of CUNA advocacy director, suggested there is precedent for the two parties to work together early in a new presidency before partisanship takes hold. He recalled that in 2017, the first year of President Donald Trump’s administration, 16 Democrats crossed the aisle to vote for the passage of S. 2155. “I don’t think the [current] margins dictate the level of bipartisanship,” Flock said. “I think there’s incentive for certain Republicans to cross the aisle … especially in this first year of Congress.” Despite that, the industry may still have to defend itself to lawmakers it generally considers friendly. Durr noted that progressive Democrats could make a push on public banking or postal banking options, which she called “redundant” with other credit union services. The industry has consistently been against the introduction of those services. And the credit union tax exemption might also come under fire, they warned. “With state and local budgets decimated, I think we’re going to be under greater scrutiny when it comes to our tax status,” said Durr. Many observers have suggested the industry’s tax status is relatively safe at the federal level, despite recent attacks from community bankers, but fights could be brewing at the state level.

 NCUA’s Harper says exam audits merit new consumer protection programs -- Todd Harper, the chairman of the National Credit Union Administration, on Tuesday reiterated his call for the regulator to do more work around consumer protections. “The NCUA must create a dedicated program to supervise for compliance with consumer financial protection and fair lending laws,” Harper said in remarks during the Credit Union National Association’s online Governmental Affairs Conference. “In doing so, we will better protect consumers’ interests, ensure that the credit union system lives up to its commitment to serve members and provide a comparable level of consumer protection oversight as federal bank regulators.” Harper noted that the agency performed quality control reviews of randomly selected exam reports in 2020 and “observed several issues suggesting that some credit unions may not be paying attention to consumer financial protection as closely as warranted.” The agency found what Harper called “notable shortfalls” in compliance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the Electronic Fund Transfer Act and the Truth in Lending Act, and while Harper called for the creation of new consumer protection programs at the agency, he did not announce any specific initiatives in his remarks. Any new program is likely to come up against stiff opposition. Most of the industry – including other members of the NCUA board – remains staunchly opposed to the agency expanding its role as a consumer watchdog. Later in the day, Ryan Donovan, CUNA’s chief advocacy officer, suggested any new efforts from the regulator on that front would be “redundant examination activities that will not enhance consumer protection.” Elsewhere in his remarks, Harper praised the industry’s performance during the COVID-19 pandemic but said the economic recovery has sputtered, which could cause problems for credit unions. That’s due in part to interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future, which could make managing interest rate risk a challenge, while sustained high unemployment levels could cut into loan demand and affect credit quality on existing loans.

Biden’s CFPB Pick to Focus on Borrowers Struggling During the Covid-19 Pandemic – WSJ — Rohit Chopra, President Biden’s pick to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said he would seek to protect Americans struggling with debt amid the coronavirus pandemic from potential abuses by lenders.“We must not forget that the financial lives of millions of Americans lay in ruin,” Mr. Chopra said Tuesday to a Senate panel considering his nomination. “Many have seen their jobs disappear and will not be able to easily resume their [rent and mortgage] payments.”Mr. Chopra, who currently serves on the Federal Trade Commission, has been nominated to lead a bureau that has been a flashpoint between Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. Set up during the Obama administration in response to lending practices that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis, the bureau has stirred complaints of regulatory overreach.“Americans need efficient and effective access to credit, and the bureau should not act to constrain our ability to serve customers in their time of need,” Richard Hunt, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, said in a letter to Mr. Chopra last week.Mr. Chopra testified alongside Gary Gensler, Mr. Biden’s nominee to head the Securities and Exchange Commission.Among Mr. Chopra’s priorities, industry officials said: ensuring credit reports are accurate, helping consumers behind on rent or mortgage payments, and ensuring that so-called payday lenders assess their customers’ ability to repay short-term, high-interest loans.“A Chopra-led CFPB will be more active on all fronts including rule-making, supervision and enforcement,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading, which serves large institutional investors.

Biden's CFPB nominee puts loan servicers, credit bureaus on notice --President Biden’s nominee to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau vowed the bureau would come to the aid of student loan borrowers, consumers trying to correct inaccurate credit reports and homeowners hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. The comments by Rohit Chopra before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday were among the highlights of a wide-ranging confirmation for him and Gary Gensler, a veteran regulator nominated to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission. Democrats raised concerns about the lack of student loan monitoring by the CFPB during the Trump era. And lawmakers raised questions about mortgage lending rules and issues with consumer credit reports. The hearing also highlighted partisan divisions over the direction of the federal financial regulatory agencies and the scope of their responsibilities. Republican lawmakers questioned whether it is appropriate for the SEC to regulate activities such as environmental impact that are outside of shareholders’ economic interests, while Democrats pushed Gensler to incorporate political-giving and climate-related disclosures in SEC rules. Here are five key areas where Chopra and Gensler were pressed by lawmakers about the actions they would take or the way they would conduct themselves. A few senators raised specific issues about the rule of law and whether Chopra planned to break from a previous Democratic nominee, former CFPB Director Richard Cordray, who was often excoriated by Republican lawmakers and businesses for what they termed “regulation by enforcement.” Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., wanted to know whether Chopra would rescind a rule finalized in January by then-CFPB Director Kraninger that clarified the difference between regulations and supervisory guidance. “Are you committing to complying with this law, with this rule or do you intend to revisit and attempt to change this rule that was passed this year?” Toomey asked. Chopra replied, “Supervisory guidance is really supposed to be there to help institutions be able to understand how to best comply." At another point, when questioned about his views on unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices, Chopra said, “We have to enforce the law as written.”“We learned from the last crisis that regulators missed some of the linkages between the mortgage market and our economy,” Chopra said. “We saw not too long ago the illegal foreclosures of active-duty service members. It’s going to be critical for the CFPB to monitor those markets ... so we do not see a deja vu of that crisis again.” Chopra, who previously served as the CFPB's student loan ombudsman, said he plans to work closely with the Department of Education to hold student loan servicers accountable. ”Some of the same issues that we saw in the mortgage servicing market I think are creeping into the student loan servicing market,” Chopra said. Chopra vowed to crack down on servicers that do not allow borrowers to restructure loan payments or keep them from enrolling in forbearance or forgiveness programs. "If servicers or debt collectors are misrepresenting those options, that is a big problem,” he said. “It’s critical that loan servicers live up to their obligations.”

 Interagency breakthrough on CRA looks to be in reach — As the Biden administration fills out its roster of bank regulators, optimism is growing that agencies that had diverged on how to reform the Community Reinvestment Act may come together on a joint framework. During the Trump years, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized its own CRA rule without support of other regulators. Critics warned that the agency's sweeping overhaul could hurt the very communities that the anti-redlining law was meant to help. They supported a more restrained, consensus-driven approach offered by the Federal Reserve. The rule has yet to be fully implemented. Acting Comptroller Blake Paulson appeared willing last month to slow down the process, telling banks they no long needed to meet a May deadline to submit data meant to inform the creation of a new CRA scoring system. And analysts see both candidates under consideration by the Biden administration for comptroller as likely to hit the pause button, opening the door to the agencies returning to the negotiating table. “The prospects are good for interagency collaboration on CRA reform,” said Quyen Truong, a partner at Stroock & Stroock & Lavan. That sentiment was echoed last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who told House lawmakers that he sees "an opportunity for a harmonized rule among the agencies.” The administration's search for a new comptroller has reportedly been narrowed to two candidates: Michael Barr, a former Obama administration official and law professor with an extensive pro-consumer record; and Merhsa Baradaran, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine and an author of books examining social justice in the financial system. Observers say either would likely throw out the CRA rule finalized under former Comptroller Joseph Otting, potentially shifting focus to the Fed's alternative plan spearheaded by Gov. Lael Brainard. The Fed issued a rulemaking outline in September that, unlike the OCC rule, would rely on existing data collection and reporting for CRA scoring, and preserve tests that consumer advocates had criticized the OCC for weakening. “We would expect that the rulemaking process will move more in the direction of the Fed’s proposal rather than the current regulation by the OCC,” said Peter Dugas, managing principal at Capco. “We haven’t seen significant complaints levied against that plan.” The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has yet to offer its own plan, but new leadership at the agencies could affect the FDIC's thinking as well. If the Senate confirms Rohit Chopra to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a new comptroller, Democrats could hold a majority on the FDIC even though the board is chaired by a Trump appointee, Jelena McWilliams.

Third Federal's CRA rating stuck at 'needs to improve'— For the second time in three years, Third Federal Savings and Loan Association in Cleveland has received a “needs to improve” rating on its Community Reinvestment Act examination for making too few home loans in low-income communities. The $14.5 billion-asset Third Federal, a unit of TSF Financial, has its branches in Ohio and Florida but makes loans in 23 states and the District of Columbia. Its business is almost exclusively residential mortgage lending. In the period evaluated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, from 2015 to the end of 2019, 86% of its loans were one- to four-family mortgages and the rest were home equity lines of credit. According to the OCC, Third Federal’s performance under both the lending and investment tests of CRA needs improvement. While it said the bank’s volume of lending activity reflected "excellent responsiveness” to the credit needs of its assessment areas, the geographic distribution of its home mortgage loans as well as its investments in community development were considered to be “poor.” In Cleveland, where Third Federal is headquartered and has the strongest concentration of its banking business, the OCC found that its share of lending to low- to moderate-income areas was "significantly below" its potential capacity. While 5.7% of the assessment area's occupied housing fell into census tracts classified as "low income" between 2015 and 2016, only 0.7% of Third Federal's orginated mortgages went to those areas during that period. Regulators noted that the thrift originated the majority of its mortgages outside of its assessment areas during the evaluation period and that its volume of loans in markets other than Ohio and Florida has increased over time. In 2016, just under 52% of Third Federal’s loans originated outside of its assessment areas, a figure that grew to 60% by 2019. The OCC said it did not find any evidence of discriminatory or otherwise illegal credit practices in the course of its evaluation. Third Federal last received a “satisfactory” CRA rating in 2012. Third Federal did not respond to requests for comment.

CFPB officially proposes delay of QM changes -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau made official the agency's plans to delay the compliance deadline for changes to its main mortgage underwriting rule. Acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio on Wednesday issued a notice of proposed rulemaking extending the compliance date from July to October 2022 for changes to the Qualified Mortgage rule. The CFPB said the delay, which the agency first announced last week, was needed “to ensure homeowners struggling with the financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have the options they need.” The original QM rule requires loans to maintain a debt-to-income ratio of no more than 43%, though mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are exempt under a temporary 2014 provision. That exemption is slated to go away whenever the CFPB implements the overhaul that was finalized by then-Director Kathy Kraninger in December. The changes, which were set to take effect in July, include replacing the DTI limit with a standard based on the loan's price, and subjecting Fannie and Freddie to the same framework as other companies. The QM rule was created after the 2008 financial crisis to define certain loans as ultrasafe and therefore protected from legal liability. Uejio's proposal means the status quo in the mortgage market, with Fannie and Freddie authorized to back loans with higher DTIs, would be extended. He suggested the delay is meant to better enable the government-sponsored enterprises to help borrowers keep their homes. Yet some observers expect the delay is just a precursor to the Democratic-led CFPB's unwinding of Kraninger's changes. “At a time when so many consumers are struggling and at risk of losing ground, particularly Black and Hispanic consumers, we need to do all we can to help people stay in their homes and to ensure the availability of responsible, affordable mortgages,” Uejio said in a press release. “In proposing to extend the date by which lenders must comply with the CFPB’s new General QM definition, we are working to provide needed options for both homeowners and lenders during a time of uncertainty and hardship.” Kraninger's revamp replaced the 43% DTI ratio with a price-based threshold that would have been measured by comparing a loan’s annual percentage rate against the average prime offer rate for a comparable transaction. A loan would meet the QM definition only if the APR is no more than 2 percentage points higher than the average prime offer rate.

Looming risk for borrowers, renters when relief ends, CFPB says --More than 11 million families — nearly 10% of U.S. households — are at risk of eviction or foreclosure because of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Monday. In a report analyzing effects of the pandemic on the housing market, the bureau said roughly 2.1 million families are at least three months behind on mortgage payments, while 8.8 million tenants are behind on their rent. In all, roughly 28% of residents in manufactured homes, 18% of those in multi-family buildings and 12% of those in single-family homes are behind on their housing payments as of December 2020, the CFPB in the 21-page report. In a press release accompanying the report, acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio cited an urgency for policymakers to act. He suggested there will noticeable consequences when federal and state measures to help households weather the economic fallout from COVID-19, including forbearance plans, begin to expire. In all, roughly 28% of residents in manufactured homes, 18% of those in multi-family buildings and 12% of those in single-family homes are behind on their housing payments as of December 2020, the CFPB in the 21-page report.Bloomberg News“We are working hard to help homeowners and renters as the U.S. begins to turn a painful crisis, caused by the pandemic, into a robust recovery,” Uejio said. “We know small landlords are struggling, too, with many dipping into savings or using credit cards to make it through the pandemic. We want everyone — homeowners and renters, landlords, and mortgage servicers — to have the tools they need now to avoid unnecessary evictions and foreclosures.” Black and Hispanic homeowners were more than twice as likely to have fallen behind on housing payments than white homeowners, the report found. “Many households will face difficulties navigating significant payment arrearages or permanent income losses,” the report said. The Biden administration has extended the length of forbearance plans that borrowers can seek, providing extra mortgage payment relief, though the aid is primarily for government-backed loans. Homeowners also have considerable equity, and home prices have risen dramatically in the past year. The CFPB said that 263,000 borrowers are “of particular risk” because they are more than 90 days behind on their mortgages but have not yet signed up to delay mortgage payments through forbearance plans. Many will have limited options to avoid foreclosure if they do not contact their mortgage servicers, the bureau said. The report also noted that “long forbearance can erode equity,” and cites “the impact of forbearance and foreclosure on home values and neighborhoods.” However, homeowners have fared far better than renters since there are no formal policies allowing renters to defer payments, the agency said.

CFPB: "Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing" --From the CFPB: New Report From Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Finds Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing: Today, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a report that warns of widespread evictions and foreclosures once federal, state, and local pandemic protections come to an end, absent additional public and private action. Over 11 million families are behind on their rent or mortgage payments: 2.1 million families are behind at least three months on mortgage payments, while 8.8 million are behind on rent. Homeowners alone are estimated to owe almost $90 billion in missed payments. The last time this many families were behind on their mortgages was during the Great Recession. “We have very little time to prevent millions of families from losing their homes to eviction and foreclosure,” warns CFPB Acting Director Dave Uejio. “At the CFPB, we are working hard to help homeowners and renters as the U.S. begins to turn a painful crisis, caused by the pandemic, into a robust recovery. We know small landlords are struggling, too, with many dipping into savings or using credit cards to make it through the pandemic. We want everyone—homeowners and renters, landlords, and mortgage servicers—to have the tools they need now to avoid unnecessary evictions and foreclosures.”Here is the report: Housing insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic CR Notes: Most of the homeowners in forbearance will be able to restructure their loans once they are able to return to work, and I do not expect a large number of foreclosures.   However, a large number of renters are at risk of eviction once the moratoriums end.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.23%" -- Note: This is as of February 21st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.23%” The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 5.22% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.23% as of February 21, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. ... "A small increase in new forbearance requests, coupled with exits decreasing to match a survey low, led to the overall share of loans in forbearance increasing for the first time in five weeks,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The largest rise in the forbearance share was for portfolio and PLS loans, due to increases for both Ginnie Mae buyouts and other portfolio/PLS loans.” Fratantoni added, “The winter storm that impacted Texas and other states did lead to some temporary disruptions at servicer call centers, but these centers quickly returned to full operations.”  This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, then trended down - and has mostly moved slowly down recently. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.06% to 0.07%."

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 26, 2021.
... The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates jumped last week on market expectations of stronger economic growth and higher inflation. The 30-year fixed rate experienced its largest single-week increase in almost a year, reaching 3.23 percent – the highest since July 2020,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The overall share of refinances declined for the fourth consecutive week, and conventional refinance applications fell more than 2 percent to the lowest level in four months. Government refinance applications historically lag the more rate-sensitive movements of conventional applications, and that was true last week, as both FHA and VA refinancing volumes increased.”
Added Kan, “The housing market is entering the busy spring buying season with strong demand. Purchase applications increased, with a rise in government applications – likely first-time buyers – pulling down the average loan size for the first time in six weeks.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.23 percent from 3.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.0% Year-over-year in January  - Notes:  The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: In High Gear: Annual US Home Price Appreciation Reaches Double Digits in January, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January 2021.  2020 was a landmark year for the housing market. Factors such as record-low mortgage rates encouraged first-time homebuyers to dip their toe into the housing market and allowed home price growth to remain strong, despite economic uncertainty. The momentum continued into 2021, with home price growth experiencing its first double-digit annual appreciation since November 2013 in January at 10%. However, as we look forward to the rest of 2021, we may expect to see challenges for some prospective homeowners....“Record-low mortgage rates were a significant driving force behind last year’s rebound in housing market activity,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, heavy competition for the few houses on the market drove home prices to historic highs, and mortgage rates are no longer enough to sway the affordability challenges for consumers. While new construction may help balance home prices towards the end of 2021, we may expect to see demand slow in the medium-term.”...Nationally, home prices increased 10% in January 2021, compared with January 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.9% compared to December 2020.“Despite first-time buyers driving high demand, entry-level homes remain in short supply,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Homes priced below 75% of the local median price had 14% annual appreciation, negating most of the benefits of record-low mortgage rates. When interest rates rise, the affordability squeeze for first-time buyers will become even more of a challenge.”

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 25.8% Year-over-year -- From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Occupancy Decreases for First Time Since January: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy dipped slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 27. Feb. 21-27, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):
• Occupancy: 47.5% (-25.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$96.72 (-25.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$45.90 (-44.5%)
The week-over-week decrease was the country’s first since late January. Florida, California, and New York reported the largest drops in demand. Texas, on the other hand, led the nation in room nights sold as hotels continued to house residents displaced by winter storm damage. The state’s occupancy reached a pandemic high of 57.3%, up a full point from the week prior. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).   Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. In a few weeks, the year-over-year comparisons will be easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy will still be down significantly from normal levels.

Construction Spending Increased 1.7% in January - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during January 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,521.5 billion, 1.7 percent above the revised December estimate of $1,496.5 billion. The January figure is 5.8 percent above the January 2020 estimate of $1,437.7 billion. Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,160.0 billion, 1.7 percent above the revised December estimate of $1,140.9 billion. ...  In January, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $361.5 billion, 1.7 percent above the revised December estimate of $355.5 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 5% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).  Non-residential spending is 8% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.  Public construction spending is 1% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 38% above the austerity low in February 2014.  The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.  On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 21.0%. Non-residential spending is down 10.1% year-over-year. Public spending is up 6.8% year-over-year.  Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential will be under pressure. For example, lodging is down 23% YoY, multi-retail down 31% YoY, and office down 4% YoY.  This was well above consensus expectations of a 0.7% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.  A strong report.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices More Than Double Year-over-year -- Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.    This graph shows CME framing futures through Mar 1st.  This is up 142% year-over-year - more than double. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.   Clearly there is another surge in demand for lumber.

Household debt and the pandemic --This is something I used to pay a lot more attention to back around the time of the Great Recession. How stretched were American households in paying their monthly bills? The Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly update tracking this issue. Two of the metrics in that quarterly update are debt service payments and financial obligations, respectively, as percents of household disposable income. The last update was in December, for Q3 2020. The Q4 figure should be released later this month. And the story is how strong of an impact the pandemic stimulus has made on household balance sheets. Here’s the graph, that pretty much speaks for itself: Both measures were by far at all-time lows in Q2, and increased slightly in Q3. One important criticism is that these aren’t median measures. They tell us how the average, not median, household is doing, so they are subject to being skewed by high upper incomes. But the stimulus payments were not matched to income - e..g, every household got a $1200 check back in April, regardless of underlying income. And pandemic unemployment assistance also tended to be skewed towards moderate and lower incomes (i.e., there was a ceiling in the amount of relief). This is another important data point on how successful (obviously not universal!) the Congressional stimulus has been in alleviating the potentially devastating impact of the pandemic on households and the economy.

 JP Morgan Is Trying To Offload "Big Blocks" Of Corporate Manhattan Real Estate --And it isn't just corporations packing up their entire operations and moving to tax havens like Florida, as we have noted for the last year, it's also firms cutting back on the amount of corporate real estate they use in the city. JP Morgan is the latest example, with the company reported looking to sell large blocks of its office space in Manhattan, according to Bloomberg. The banking giant is reportedly looking to sublet about 700,000 square feet at 4 New York Plaza in the financial district, the report says. They're also looking to sublet more than 100,000 square feet at 5 Manhattan West in the Hudson Yards area. A spokesman for the bank said: “It is too early to comment on specifics as we continue to learn and adapt to this current situation and how it impacts our commercial real estate needs. We are committed to New York and are planning for the next 50 years with our new headquarters here.”The bank is in the midst of building a skyscraper on Park Ave. that will be one of the biggest in Manhattan. But CEO Jamie Dimon said this week that the pandemic has led to potentially "permanent changes" in how the bank does in-office business.  Dimon commented: “New York could have a little bit of a difficult time. Already, real estate needs will come down. Most of us are going to go to more open seating because you don’t need 100 seats for 100 employees -- you’re going to need like 60.”

Two leading sectors of the economy - manufacturing and housing - turn even hotter --Last month I wrote that both the manufacturing and housing sectors were “on fire.” If anything, this month they turned white hot, with both construction spending and ISM manufacturing data at levels not seen in years. The overall ISM manufacturing reading rose from 58.7 to 60.8, tying the highest reading since the Great Recession, and indeed since 2004. The even more leading new orders subindex also rose from 61.1 to 64.8, not quite as high as readings earlier in autumn 2020: Turning to construction, in January spending for residential construction surged even further, up 2.5% for the month. This was the highest nominal reading ever: Taking into account inflation - deflating by the PPI for construction materials, which rose 2.7% for the month, in the graph below - residential construction spending (blue) declined -0.2%. Because permits have to be taken out before construction can begin, typically these lead construction spending (although in fairness that really hasn’t been true in the past 2 years). Below I show the less volatile single family permits (right scale): This year, 2021, is likely going to be absolutely gangbusters for residential construction spending, which means lots more money flowing through the economy as a whole. Simply put, this morning’s two reports together show that manufacturing and housing, the two most important leading sectors of the real economy, are if anything even hotter than before, and are likely to power very strong GDP gains as vaccinations (hopefully) case the pandemic strictures to give way.

U.S. Gasoline Demand Jumps To Highest Since Pandemic Started --U.S. gasoline demand jumped last week to the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic started, with demand this past Sunday up by 18.2 percent compared to the previous Sunday, according to GasBuddy data.  According to final numbers from Sunday, Pay with GasBuddy showed that U.S. gasoline demand rose by 18.2 percent versus the prior Sunday, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, tweeted on Tuesday.  Sunday’s gasoline demand was 5.7 percent higher than the previously highest Sunday since the pandemic started, which was October 18, 2020.  U.S. gasoline demand is still off its ‘normal’ pre-COVID level, but the GasBuddy data shows encouraging signs about gasoline consumption in the United States.  “According to Pay with GasBuddy data, last week’s total gasoline demand soared to the highest level since the pandemic began as COVD-19 cases continue to drop and Americans are filling up more,” De Haan said on Monday.  The national average price of gasoline has now increased for the eighth consecutive week, rising 7.5 cents per gallon over the last week to $2.72 as of Monday, data compiled by GasBuddy showed.  Although the Texas Freeze and the resulting shut refining capacity were the major drivers of gasoline price spikes over the past two weeks, increased overall U.S. gasoline demand is also driving prices higher, GasBuddy’s De Haan said. “On the supply side, the number of oil rigs active in the U.S. stands nearly 50% lower than a year ago, which is a large factor driving prices up. To put it simply, demand is recovering much much faster than oil production levels, which is why oil prices have soared,” he added.The OPEC+ meeting later this week could set the trend for oil prices this month and going into the second quarter as the group will decide how much of oil supply to return to the market as of April. 

February Vehicles Sales decreased to 15.67 Million SAAR - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.67 million SAAR in February 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 5.7% from the January sales rate, and down 6.6% from February 2020.  This was below the consensus estimate of 16.4 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for February (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month. Since April, sales have increased, but are still down  year-over-year, The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in February were probably negatively impacted by the poor weather in many parts of the country.

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 9% Year-over-year in February -- The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2021 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).   Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.   However heavy truck sales started declining in late 2019 due to lower oil prices. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."  Heavy truck sales really declined towards the end of March 2020 due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020, but have since rebounded.   Heavy truck sales were at 489 thousand SAAR in February, down from 530 thousand SAAR in January, but up 9% from 448 thousand SAAR in February 2020. The year-over-year comparison will be easy for the next several months because of the collapse in sales in the early months of the pandemic.

AAR: February Rail Carloads down 11.1% YoY, Intermodal Up 1.8% YoY --From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. The U.S. freight rail network is subject to, and sometimes at the mercy of, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and other whims of nature. In February, the whims included exceptionally cold and icy conditions in most of the country, including in many areas that aren’t used to it. For rail, it meant reduced operations and, in some areas, complete temporary shutdowns. It was so bad, in fact, that total U.S. rail carloads in the third week of February were the lowest of any week in our records that go back to 1988. Volumes recovered the next week, but the net impact was materially lower rail volumes in February. In February 2021, U.S total carloads were down 11.1% from February 2020, the biggest percentage decline in six months ... However, U.S. intermodal originations were 1.8% higher in February 2021 than in February 2020, continuing what’s now a streak of seven straight months of year-over-year gains.This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021: In February, U.S. railroads originated 824,636 total carloads, down 11.1% (102,972 carloads) from February 2020. That’s the biggest year-over-year percentage decline in six months, much worse than the 2.1% decline in January 2021 and 3.7% decline in December 2020. In the third week of February, when the worst of the bad weather struck, the year-over-year decline was 26.3%.The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. railroads originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in February 2021, an average of 253,999 per week. That’s 1.8% higher than the weekly average in February 2020, continuing what’s now a streak of seven straight months of year-over-year intermodal gains. U.S. intermodal originations averaged 293,305 per week in January 2021, an all-time record.Note that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic, however intermodal has come back strong.

Trade Deficit Increased to $68.2 Billion in January -- From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.2 billion in January, up $1.2 billion from $67.0 billion in December, revised.January exports were $191.9 billion, $1.8 billion more than December exports. January imports were $260.2 billion, $3.1 billion more than December imports. Both exports and imports increased in January.Exports are down 7.6% compared to January 2020; imports are up 3.2% compared to January 2020.  Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports much more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months.Oil imports averaged $42.50 per barrel in January, up from $38.30 per barrel in December, and down from $52.24 in January 2020. The trade deficit with China increased to $26.3 billion in January, from $26.1 billion in January 2020.

January Trade Deficit at $68.2B, 1.9% More Than November - The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.2 billion in January, up $1.2 billion from $67.0 billion in December, revised.January exports were $191.9 billion, $1.8 billion more than December exports. January imports were $260.2 billion, $3.1 billion more than December imports.The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.3 billion to $85.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $17.2 billion.Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $23.8 billion, or 53.7 percent, from January 2020. Exports decreased $15.7 billion or 7.6 percent. Imports increased $8.1 billion or 3.2 percent.Exports and imports in January 2021 reflect both the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the continued economic recovery from the sharp declines in 2020. In particular, trade in services remains below pre-pandemic levels. The full economic effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in the statistics because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see “What is the impact of COVID-19 on statistics on trade in services?”Today's headline number of -68.21B was more negative than the Investing.com forecast of -67.50B. Here is a snapshot that gives a better sense of the extreme volatility of this indicator.

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in January as Americans Bought More Imported Goods - WSJ—The U.S. trade deficit widened in January as American consumers stepped up purchases of computers, cellphones, flat-screen TVs and other imported products.The deficit in trade of goods and services expanded by 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted $68.2 billion in January, the Commerce Department said Friday, compared with a $66.97 billion gap in December.Imports increased 1.2% to $260.2 billion from December, while exports grew 1.0% to $191.9 billion. Imports have returned to pre-pandemic levels after dropping sharply starting in March.Americans splurged on consumer goods in January, helped by $600 payments many received as part of the latest round of government stimulus spending to fight the impact of the pandemic. Retail sales jumped a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in January from the previous month, the biggest increase since June. Imports of pharmaceuticals rose sharply in January, and higher prices drove up the value of imported crude oil and petroleum products. With the global economy recovering, exports also expanded modestly, bolstered by shipments of petroleum products, industrial machinery and semiconductors. Many countries loosened restrictions on economic activity at a quicker pace as Covid-19 cases fell sharply from their peak around the new year.“Trade flows continue to recover and will pick up once the global economy reopens,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said in a research note. She added that imports are likely to outweigh exports in the near term because of the relatively strong recovery in the U.S. economy.While shipments of goods recovered, trade in services remained depressed amid continuing travel restrictions. Exports of services declined by 0.5% to $56.3 billion in January from December. Imports of services fell 0.9% to $39 billion.In January, the U.S. deficit in trade in goods with China declined to $26.25 billion from $27.23 billion in December. Exports to China fell 12.2% to $12.86 billion, while imports declined 6.6% to $39.11 billion.Under the so-called Phase One trade agreement signed with the Trump administration, China committed to boosting its imports of certain U.S. products in agriculture, manufacturing and energy by a combined $200 billion between 2020 and 2021.China fell far short of its purchase goal for 2020, and its imports of covered products in January came to $9.82 billion, down from and average of $11.2 billion in the previous three months, according to an analysis by Panjiva, a research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence.The company projects China must increase its monthly imports of the covered items to an average of $14.8 billion to meet its purchase goal for 2021.

The US’s blockbuster manufacturing PMI points to supply chain issues There’s a lot to look at in markets at the moment, but in the last week of February, the central concern seemed to be interest rates, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury touching a one-year high of 1.61 per cent on Thursday.Cue a frantic sell-off in theoretically interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks, perhaps best encapsulated by the ARK Invest family of ETFs, as investors scrambled to rotate their portfolios as fears of inflation swept through the markets. By Friday, however, it was back to normal. And so it was in early trading on Monday.The market’s current schizophrenia towards inflation and rates is understandable. Judging whether prices will become a problem, or a tailwind, for the US economy is in our view impossible. Covid has created a lot of idiosyncratic effects on both the supply and demand side of the economy that will create natural distortions in price data. So figuring out where the steady-state-rate of inflation will settle post-recovery feels like, to be polite, a mug’s game.Yet Monday’s PMI readings from ISM do suggest that, at the moment, if pricing pressure is going to persist it will be due to the supply side. In case you missed the headlines, the US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 60.8 per cent, up 2.1 percentage points from January’s reading. It is, by all accounts, a blockbuster number — the highest reading since February 2018 (the Trump tax-cut era, as you might recall).But look closely at the responses, and you’ll see that supply chains seem to be the central concern for the businesses surveyed by ISM. You get the picture: demand is robust, but producing the goods for customers is proving problematic. This has knock on-effects on costs. Zero in on the prices — the cost of raw goods for products — reading in the survey and you’ll see it came in at a whopping 86 per cent. According to Alphaville pals Bespoke Research Group, the consumer price index reading when this figure is above 85 has been at an average of 3.2 per cent since 1990. The last CPI reading? 0.3 per cent.We already knew that the rise in oil prices and pent-up demand for services was likely to trigger a rise in CPI inflation in the coming months. If producers manage to pass on these higher costs to consumers, then the rise will be even stronger. Which they may well do as demand soars as the US economy begins to reopen. Deutsche economist Jim Reid wrote in his morning note that, given the potential figures (DB reckon nominal GDP growth could be close to 10 per cent in the fourth quarter), he thinks volatility in asset markets will remain high due to the inherent uncertainty over inflation. While we have no idea where inflation will settle, that seems as good a bet as any in this economic environment.

 February Markit Manufacturing: "Production growth near six-year peak but price gauge highest since 2011" - The February US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.6, down 0.6 from the 59.2 final January figure. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:“Another month of strong production growth suggests that the US manufacturing sector is close to fully recovering the output lost to the pandemic last year, and a renewed surge in optimism suggests the recovery has much further to run. Business expectations about the year ahead jumped to a level only exceeded once over the past six years, buoyed by a cocktail of stimulus and post-COVID recovery hopes as life continues to return to normal amid vaccine roll outs.“Particularly encouraging is a marked improvement in demand for machinery and equipment, hinting strongly at strengthening business investment spending. However, new orders for consumer goods showed the strongest back-to back monthly gains since the pandemic began, suggesting higher household spending is also feeding through to higher production.“A concern is that shortages of raw materials have become a growing problem, with record supply chain delays reported in February, contributing to the steepest rise in material costs seen over the past decade. Prices charged for a wide variety of goods coming out of factories are consequently rising, which will likely feed through to higher consumer inflation.” [Press Release]Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

 ISM® Services Index decreased to 55.3% in February --The February ISM® Services index was at 55.3%, down from 58.7% last month. The employment index decreased to 52.7%, from 55.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management®: February 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector grew in February for the ninth month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business: “The Services PMI® registered 55.3 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than the January reading of 58.7 percent. This reading indicates the ninth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 133 months.This was below expectations, and the report showed a decline for the employment index.

 Another 745,000 jobless claims filed as Senate takes up Biden’s COVID-19 relief bill - Continuing the year-long trend of historic job losses unseen since the Great Depression, the latest US Department of Labor (DOL) weekly unemployment claims report for the week ending February 27 revealed another 745,000 workers filed first-time jobless claims. The figure is an increase of 9,000 from last week’s revised total of 736,000. While slightly lower than the 750,000 expected claims forecasted by bourgeois economists, it is four times the weekly figure typical before the coronavirus pandemic, and far worse than any similar figure during the recession that followed the 2008 Wall Street crash. The historically unprecedented number gives some indication to the vast levels of joblessness, economic insecurity and social despair afflicting wide swathes of the working class one year into the pandemic, which has claimed over 530,000 lives in the US. In addition to state claims, the DOL reported that 436,696 claims were filed under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, bringing the total number of state and federal claims filed for the week above 1.1 million, a figure that hasn’t declined since the pandemic began. The PUA program was created under the CARES Act last March for workers who would not typically be eligible for state unemployment programs. Eligible workers include independent contractors, the self-employed and hyper-exploited “gig” workers, many of whom have been forced to take on multiple jobs with companies such as Uber, Instacart or Lyft in order to stay alive. The joblessness crisis is especially acute for workers previously employed in entertainment, restaurant, and service-oriented industries, which have been decimated over the last year due to purposeful policies which induced the spread of the virus throughout the country coupled with the government’s haphazard and inconsistent COVID-19-induced lockdowns. The DOL report also registered some 18 million people claiming unemployment benefits across all state and federal programs, a decrease of over 1 million from the previous week, but still representing nine times more people claiming benefits compared to this time last year. The decrease in unemployment benefits paid out is more a function of workers seeing their eligibility expire as opposed to any significant increase in hiring in public or private sectors. Even as Democratic and Republican governors alike rush to abandon any public health measures in their endless effort to satisfy the profit-driven demands of Wall Street, hiring has yet to pick up as millions of students, parents and workers continue to resist unscientific, dangerous and irrational demands to return to school or work.

ADP: Private Employment increased 117,000 in February - From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in colaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  The labor market continues to post a sluggish recovery across the board,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “We’re seeing large-sized companies increasingly feeling the effects of COVID-19, while job growth in the goods producing sector pauses. With the pandemic still in the driver’s seat, the service sector remains well below its pre-pandemic levels; however, this sector is one that will likely benefit the most over time with reopenings and increased consumer confidence. This was below the consensus forecast of 168,000 for this report.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 148 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in February.

Economy adds 379K jobs in first report of Biden presidency - The economy added a whopping 379,000 jobs in February, a major improvement from the 49,000 jobs added the previous month, and more than double the 175,000 economists predicted. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent from 6.3 percent last month, and the number of unemployed people remained similar at 10 million. The unemployment crisis has hit some groups harder than others. While the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent for Whites, it remained at 9.9 percent for Blacks and 8.5 percent for Hispanics. The latest jobs data — covering the first full months of the Biden presidency — points to early signs of improvement for an economy still struggling to dig itself out of a deep hole amid the coronavirus pandemic. The number of unemployed people remained similar at 10 million. The positive report could add ammunition to opponents of President Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, expected to pass in the Senate over the weekend. Critics say the stimulus is too large, and risks overheating the economy. But supporters of the bill are likely to note that even at the high rate of job creation seen in February, it could take two years to fill the void created by the pandemic recession. "The first jobs report of the Biden Administration shows the US economy is starting to heat up. There is [now] a strong possibility of rapid economic acceleration this spring and summer," . "But the hopes for growth and job gains could quickly get blown back off course if virus variants spread and limit vaccine effectiveness," he added, saying the relief measure could ensure a smoother recovery. Most of the job gains came from leisure and hospitality — the sector hit hardest by the pandemic — while improvements in temporary help, health care, retail, and manufacturing were smaller. The sectors that lost jobs included state and local government, education, construction, and mining. The Biden coronavirus relief bill includes $350 billion for state and local governments, though critics say many states have already recovered financially, and the aid should be more targeted. The report found significant drops in temporary layoffs, which fell by 517,000, but that the number of people who have been unemployed for longer periods remained relatively stable, an indication of the more persistent problems likely to plague the jobs market in the coming months.

February Employment Report: 379 Thousand Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 79,000, from -227,000 to -306,000, and the change for January was revised up by 117,000, from +49,000 to +166,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined was 38,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.  In January, the year-over-year change was negative 9.475 million jobs.Total payrolls increased by 379 thousand in January.  Private payrolls increased by 465 thousand.Payrolls for December and January were revised up 38 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.  The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still at the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate  was unchanged at 61.4% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 57.6% (black line).The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in February to 6.2%.This was well above consensus expectations, and December and January were revised up by 38,000 combined.

February jobs report: strong growth with a few blemishes - HEADLINES:

• +397,000 million jobs added: 465,000 private sector minus - 86,000 government. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 208,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate declined 0.1% at 6.2%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate was unchanged at 11.1%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
• Those on temporary layoff decreased 517,000 to 2,229,000.
• Permanent job losers decreased 6,000 to 3,497,000.
• December was revised downward by 79,000, while January was revised upward by 87,000, for a net gain of 38,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
• the average manufacturing workweek decreased to 40.2 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
• Manufacturing jobs increased by 21,000. YoY manufacturing has still lost -561,000, or 4.4% of the total. About 60% of the total loss of 10.6% has been regained.
• Construction jobs decreased by 61,000 (probably reflecting poor weather, even for winter, in places like Texas in February) . YoY -175,000 construction jobs have been lost, 4.0% of the total. About 75% of the worst loss of 15.2% loss has been regained.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, *rose* by 5,300. YoY there have been actual job gains, and employment in this sector is at another new 10 year+ high.
• temporary jobs increased by 52,700. YoY, there have still been 175,100 jobs lost, or 6% of all temporary help jobs.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined by -93,000 to 2.185 million, compared with last April’s total of 14.283 million.
• Professional and business employment rose by 63,000, which is still 771,000, or about 3.6% below its peak one year ago.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.04 to $25.19, which is a 5.1% YoY gain. This is at a level not seen in the past 10 years outside of the first months of this pandemic and also January. Relative gains in this measure reflect that job losses during the pandemic have occurred primarily among lower wage earners.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined by -0.8%, with a YoY loss of -6.3%.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers declined by -0.7%, with a YoY loss of -0.8%. Still, about 90% of the loss from last February to April has been made back up.
• Full time jobs gained 301,000 in the household report.
• Part time jobs declined 456,000 in the household report.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons increased by 134,000 to 6.088 million, with a YoY increase of 1,690,000, or 39.5%.

SUMMARY: This was generally a positive report, with resumed good growth in the headline employment number and another decline in the unemployment rate. Most internals were positive, including the manufacturing, residential construction, and temporary employment sectors, with a decline in both temporary and permanent layoffs, and an increase in full time jobs.  The negatives were the surprise decline in the manufacturing workweek, and anomalous declines in both aggregate hours and payrolls. Involuntary part time employment also rose slightly. I am discounting the decline in construction jobs for weather-related reasons. We are still about 9.5 Million jobs behind where we were one year ago just before the pandemic hit. Even if we were to continue adding jobs at this month’s rate, it would take 2 full years just to get back to that level. The good news, I think, is that with vaccinations picking up speed, the economy is set to really surge by summertime, and hopefully there will be even stronger jobs growth as that happens.

Pandemic-Hit Industries Gain Jobs on Long Road to Recovery – WSJ --Employment in several hard-hit industries picked up last month, but remained well below pre-pandemic levels, a sign of a still-nascent recovery in these areas. Payrolls climbed in industries such as leisure and hospitality, retail and manufacturing, as authorities in February eased restrictions amid a retreat in coronavirus cases from recent peaks. Still, those industries were working to climb out of a deep hole created last year when the Covid-19 pandemic drove big shifts in business, consumer and worker behavior. Leisure and hospitality—which includes restaurants, bars and hotels—drove most of the economy’s overall job gains last month, but still had 3.5 million fewer jobs than in February 2020, just before the pandemic’s effects spread widely across the U.S. economy. The industry shed more than 500,000 jobs during December and January alone. “We still have a tremendously long way to go there,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “These jobs are really tied to Covid and even when Covid levels go down, there are a lot of people who still aren’t going to do face-to-face commerce.” Manufacturing has shown continuing signs of a bounceback, but industry payrolls were still down by 651,000 last month compared with February 2020. Improvements in the labor market last month were also spread unevenly across demographic groups. The Black unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.9% in February from 9.2% in January, while the rate for white, Asian and Hispanic or Latino people ticked lower. The unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma moved higher by a full percentage point, to 10.1% in February from 9.1% in January. The rate for Americans with a bachelor’s degree and higher fell below 4% last month. Mr. Frick, of the Navy Federal Credit Union, said other hard-hit areas, such as government employment, have promising room for growth as coronavirus vaccines become more widely distributed. Government payrolls fell by 86,000 in February compared with the prior month, and were down by roughly 1.4 million from February 2020. “Covid is still the boss and we cannot assume that won’t be true for at least the next few months,” Mr. Frick said.

February Hiring Sets Up Stronger Spring Recovery – WSJ - The U.S. economy is set up for a stronger recovery this spring after a February surge in hiring at restaurants and other hospitality businesses created the best monthly job growth since last fall.Employers added 379,000 jobs in February and January gains were revised higher to 166,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Friday. The pickup comes after employers cut jobs late last year.The unemployment rate, determined by a separate survey, ticked down to 6.2% last month. The rate is well below a near 15% pandemic peakin April 2020, but remains above 2019’s 50-year lows. Overall, the U.S. has 9.5 million fewer jobs than a year earlier, just before the coronavirus pandemic took hold in much of the country.U.S. stocks gained on Friday afternoon in a wild trading session that followed the employment report’s release, while government-bond yieldsextend a recent surge.In February, most of the job gains occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector, which includes restaurants, adding 355,000 jobs. There were smaller increases in temporary help services, manufacturing and healthcare.The gains reflect reduced business restrictions, more people receiving vaccines, a lower level of Covid-19 infections and a recent round of government aid to households and businesses, which boosted consumer spending early this year.“Some consumers are dipping their toes back in,” said Nela Richardson, a Ph.D. economist at human-resources software firm Automatic Data Processing Inc. In addition to restaurants, there were job gains at hotels, stores and in personal services, such as salons. “[Consumers] maybe not willing to fly off on an airplane, but appear more willing to dine in at a neighborhood restaurant.”The job gains reinforce other signs of economic momentum. Household income growth surged in January and consumers boosted spending, according to separate Commerce Department reports, reflecting government-stimulus payments to individuals and enhanced unemployment benefits at the start of the year.Demand for manufactured goods is also rising and home sales are trending at 14-year highs.Dr. Richardson said she expects hiring to accelerate further in the coming months, to more than a half-million jobs a month. “We’ll see a burst in hiring before things start to taper off again,” she said.

Comments on February Employment Report - The headline jobs number in the February employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up slightly.    Leisure and hospitality gained 355 thousand jobs in February (most of the job gains in February were in Leisure and hospitality).  In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and then gained about 60% of those jobs back.  However, leisure and hospitality lost jobs in December and January - before gaining jobs in February - and are now down 3.5 million jobs since February 2020. Earlier: February Employment Report: 379 Thousand Jobs, 6.2% Unemployment Rate: In February, the year-over-year employment change was minus 9.475 million jobs. This will turn positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the December report.  This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In January, the number of permanent job losers was mostly unchanged at 3.497 million from 3.503 million in January.Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery. The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in February at 81.1% from 81.1% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.5% from 76.4% in January. From the BLS report:"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 6.1 million, changed little in February but is up by 1.7 million over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 6.088 million from 5.954 million in January.These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 11.1% in February. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994.This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 4.148 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job.This does not include all the people that left the labor force. This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery.The headline monthly jobs number was well above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up 38,000 combined.  The headline unemployment rate declined to 6.2%. Overall, this was a positive report, but the real recovery will not start until the virus is suppressed.  There are still 9.5 million fewer jobs than in February 2020, and 3.5 million people have lost jobs permanently.

‘I don’t have money for food’: millions of unemployed in US left without benefits - Before the pandemic hit Stephanie Gaither worked as a driver for Uber and Lyft in Indianapolis, Indiana, making around $600 to $900 weekly. Now she is facing eviction and has her utilities shut off.Like millions of other Americans who have seen their work dry up as the virus has spread, Gaither has fallen through the huge holes in the US’s unemployment benefits system. Her unemployment benefits expired in December 2020 and she has waited several weeks without any benefits while caring for her children who are currently learning remotely.“I don’t get help from anyone so it’s really stressful. So many nights I can’t sleep. We’re running out of dog food and food for us. I do get food stamps and thankfully they just increased it, but I’m always running out. My credit is now shot. I’m depressed, I have no motivation, I feel hopeless,” said Gaither.“I have absolutely nowhere to go if I’m evicted. That means we won’t be able to keep our dog we’ve had for eight years and my kids will lose most or all of their stuff. We’ll be living in my van in the middle of winter.   All of this could have been avoided if they sent out more stimulus checks and I received unemployment.”State unemployment systems continue experiencing long delays, backlogs of unemployed claims, errors and long arbitration periods that have left millions of workers in the US without any unemployment benefits while they are out of work due to the coronavirus pandemic.An analysis of unemployed workers in January 2021 by the labor economist Eliza Forsythe at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, estimated unemployment systems are currently only reaching at most 30% of all unemployed workers, leaving an estimated 8 million unemployed Americans not receiving benefits.Several states still have thousands of unemployed claims backlogged. Total initial weekly unemployment claims have declined in recent weeks but have remained higher than the worst week of the 2008 recession for 49 straight weeks. The US labor market currently has 9.9m fewer jobs than before the pandemic.According to a Washington Post analysis in January 2021, more than 1.2 million Americans were waiting on appeals to denied unemployment claims or for their initial claims to be processed.Officially the US unemployment rate is 6.3% but as the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, noted last month the real unemployment rate in the US is closer to 10% when misclassification errors are taken into account.

The Quality Of Life In The United States Is Going Down The Toilet --Is the quality of life in America getting better, or is it getting worse? Americans certainly have a lot more “money” than they did when I was a kid, but that doesn’t mean much because the U.S. dollar has only a fraction of the value that it did back then.  And without a doubt our electronic devices have become much more advanced, but that doesn’t mean that we are happier.  In fact, everywhere I look people seem to be deeply unhappy.   Even though we are far more “wealthy” than they were, I imagine that our culture is not too different from what East Germans experienced before the Berlin Wall came down.There is so much hate and division in our society, and everyone seems ready to rat out those around them at the drop of a hat.  So most people are careful to keep to themselves, but at the same time most people are desperately lonely.These days, most Americans walk around like a bunch of zombies.  In fact, as a result of mental health problems and stress, a majority of Americans are exhibiting at least one of the symptoms of post-concussion syndrome…A survey of more than 31,000 people shows that insufficient sleep, mental health problems, and stress were the causes of a whole host of symptoms doctors are used to seeing in hea d injury patients. Symptoms of what doctors call post-concussion syndrome (PCS) range from persistent headaches, dizziness and anxiety, to insomnia and loss of concentration and memory.While 27 percent of people report having several of these symptoms, between one-half and three-quarters say they experience at least one. The most common symptoms are fatigue, low energy and drowsiness. Yet despite their findings, researchers believe the number in the general population could be much higher.

US saw sharp increase in crash deaths in 2020 despite fewer drivers on roads - Pandemic lockdowns and stay-at-home orders kept many drivers off US roads and highways last year. But those who did venture out found open lanes that only invited reckless driving, leading to a sharp increase in traffic-crash deaths across the country. The non-profit National Safety Council estimates in a report issued on Thursday that 42,060 people died in vehicle crashes in 2020, an 8% increase over 2019 and the first jump in four years. Plus, the fatality rate per 100m miles driven spiked 24%, the largest annual percentage increase since the council began collecting data in 1923. And even though traffic is now getting close to pre-coronavirus levels, the bad behavior on the roads is continuing, authorities say. Last year’s deaths were the most since 2007 when 43,945 people were killed in vehicle crashes. In addition, the safety council estimates that 4.8 million people were injured in crashes last year. Federal data shows that Americans drove 13% fewer miles last year, or roughly 2.8tn miles, said Ken Kolosh, the safety council’s manager of statistics. Yet the number of deaths rose at an alarming rate, he said. Of the reckless behaviors, early data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration show speed to be the top factor, Kolosh said. Also, tests of trauma center patients involved in traffic crashes show increased use of alcohol, marijuana and opioids, he said. In Minnesota, traffic volumes fell 60% when stay-home orders were issued early in the pandemic last spring. Hanson said state officials expected a corresponding drop in crashes and deaths, but while crashes declined, deaths increased. “Almost immediately the fatality rate started to go up, and go up significantly,” Hanson said, adding that his counterparts in other states saw similar increases. “It created less congestion and a lot more lane space for divers to use, and quite honestly, to abuse out there.” In late March and early April, the number of speed-related fatalities more than doubled over the same period in 2019 in the state, Hanson said. Last year, Minnesota recorded 395 traffic deaths, up nearly 9% from 364 in 2019. Drivers also used the empty roads to drive extreme speeds. In 2019, the Minnesota state patrol’s 600 troopers handed out tickets to just over 500 drivers for going over 100mph (160km/h). That number rose to 1,068 in 2020, Hanson said. Traveling over 100mph makes crashes far more severe, the safety council said. The high number of speeding drivers is continuing even as traffic is starting to return to pre-pandemic levels, according to Hanson.

Chicago and Cook County allocate the bulk of CARES Act funding to police and jail spending - It has recently come to light that both the City of Chicago and the government of Cook County, of which Chicago is the county seat, have chosen to spend the bulk of their discretionary federal COVID-19 relief funding on police and jails. The decision to allocate the bulk of funding toward the repressive apparatus of the state, pushed from the highest levels of the Democratic Party, is a clear sign of the priorities of the ruling class, which has devoted a comparatively miniscule amount towards any kind of relief for workers. Although city budget director Susie Park had denied last June that relief money was going toward the police, recent attempts by Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot to shuffle budget lines, requiring approval by the city council, led to the discovery that she planned to allocate $281.5 million on police payroll costs. This figure is 70 percent of the $403 million in discretionary funding the city received from the federal government and amounts to around one-third of the city’s annual police payroll costs of about $862 million. Lightfoot claimed criticism of the spending was “just dumb,” and asserted, “We saved taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars by saying yes to the federal government.” She and other Chicago officials claim the city was just taking advantage of a government program that would allow it to be reimbursed for expenses already incurred, and that by not taking the money for police, they would be leaving money on the table, as it were. Insofar as this is true, it is a complete indictment of the city’s spending priorities prior and through the first year of the pandemic. According to the Chicago Civic Federation, the city budgeted $2.45 billion on the police department and police officer pensions during the previous fiscal year, over 21 percent of total spending, a figure which does not include health care and other benefit costs, as those costs are not broken out by department. It also does not include $82.6 million set aside for settling lawsuits and paying judgments resulting from police violence, for which the city has spent $757 million from 2004 to 2018. Following the protests in the wake of the police murder of George Floyd last year, Lightfoot rejected calls to “defund” the police, claiming in an October budget address, “In this moment in Chicago, we cannot responsibly enact any policies that make communities less safe.” Just this week it was also revealed that Cook County spent $181.7 million, or 42 percent of its $428.5 million in coronavirus relief funding on the sheriff’s office, of which $176 million went to payroll costs. The sheriff’s office is responsible for the enormous and notorious Cook County Jail, along with electronic monitoring and policing in certain parts of the county which do not have their own police departments. Currently holding around 3,600 people in atrocious conditions, the Cook County Jail is one of the largest pre-trial detention facilities in the world.

 Baker extends ban on utility shutoff      -- Gov. Charlie Baker has extended a ban on utilities from shutting off service to consumers who are behind on their bills during the pandemic. The move continues a state Department of Public Utilities order from last March that banned electric, natural gas and water companies from disconnecting service during the state of emergency. Baker's order extends the ban until July 1 for residential, commercial and industrial utility customers. Public Utilities Chairman Matthew Nelson said the extension will "ensure continued reliable gas and electric service while protecting residents that are struggling with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic." Nelson urged consumers who are having trouble paying their bills "to be aware of protections and to contact their utility company for assistance." The DPU order says utilities can begin informing customers of overdue balances, which was prohibited under a previous order. But the companies must provide customers with repayment programs and debt-forgiveness options. The extension of the ban comes as unpaid utility bills have piled up in the aftermath of the pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of homeowners and businesses in Massachusetts racking up record levels of debt. A report last month by the Boston-based National Consumer Law Center found the number of utility customers who've fallen 90 days behind on their bills more than doubled from November 2019 to November 2020, with their collective debts now totaling more than $735 million.

 MDU seeks higher rates to replace aging gas pipes, prompting customer concerns   --Montana-Dakota Utilities wants to charge its natural gas customers more to replace aging pipelines, but some residents don’t want to see higher bills. “It affects our quality of life every time one of these essential services goes up because we’re on fixed incomes,” Bismarck resident Howard Burns Sr. said. Burns, 76, offered his thoughts on the company’s proposed rate increase Tuesday to members of the North Dakota Public Service Commission during a session to gather public input. MDU is asking the PSC for approval to raise gas rates by $5.54 per month for the average residential customer. That’s down slightly from the company’s initial request, which would have equated to an average of $6.26 per month. The exact amount customers’ bills would increase depends on their gas usage. Burns said he and his wife try to keep their thermostat turned down as low as they can to save on their heating bill. They pay for it, along with a host of other necessities, through Social Security benefits and a pension. He suggested MDU look for efficiencies within its own operations and seek innovative ways to cut costs.

One-third of US museums might close in 12 months, American Alliance of Museums warns On February 22-23, Museum Advocacy Day, the American Alliance of Museums (AAM) issued a statement warning that one-third of US museums were at risk “of shuttering permanently within the next twelve months without immediate financial support.” That would mean, the AAM indicated, the loss of 12,000 museums and 124,000 jobs. The Biden administration, although it may pay lip service to concerns about the situation, will essentially continue to implement the policy pursued by Democratic and Republican governments at every level for decades: “malign neglect” toward arts and culture. The bankrupting of thousands of arts organizations and the expulsion of tens of thousands of musicians, actors, dancers, visual artists and others from the field of their choice during the COVID-19 pandemic go hand in hand with the fabulous enrichment of a handful of plutocrats. The AAM figures are consistent with the organization’s earlier statements released in July and September 2020. Laura Lott, AAM President and CEO, commented recently, “While the museum field received record levels of support from the federal government in the past 12 months, the funding provided only temporary relief. Museum recovery will take years and without a sustained Congressional lifeline, I fear that many museums will be lost forever.” Lott has argued that the permanent closure of the 12,000 museums would be “devastating for communities, economies, education systems, and our cultural history.” In November, she pointed out that the “financial state of U.S. museums” was moving “from bad to worse.” Lott noted at the time that “30 percent of museums remain closed since the March lockdown and those that have reopened are operating on an average of 35 percent of their regular attendance—a reduction that is unsustainable long-term. Those that did safely serve their communities this summer do not have enough revenue to offset higher costs, especially during a potential winter lockdown.” In October, Seattle-based Wilkening Consulting—on behalf of the AAM—found that, on average, individual museums had lost about $850,000 in revenue in 2020 due to the pandemic. Museum directors on average anticipated losing the equivalent of 35 percent of their annual operating income by the end of the year. A spokeswoman for the consulting firm asserted that the current situation was “not sustainable, especially when over half of museums have less than six months of financial savings left to survive.”

Two-Thirds of New York City’s Arts and Culture Jobs Are Gone – New York City’s museums, sports arenas and entertainment venues are slowly coming back to life. But the sector has contracted dramatically under the pressure of the global pandemic, according to a report from the state Comptroller’s Office. Jobs in arts, entertainment and recreation fell by 66% in 2020 from a year ago, the largest decline among the city’s economic sectors, erasing a decade of gains in what was one of New York’s most vibrant industries, the report said. The business district that includes Chelsea and midtown Manhattan was the hardest-hit area of the city, accounting for 46% of all jobs in the sector. “The COVID-19 outbreak has had a profound and negative impact on the industry,” Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said Wednesday in a statement. “It has forced facilities to close, thrust thousands into unemployment and pushed businesses to the brink of collapse.” Before the pandemic, New York City drew 67 million tourists a year to take in Broadway shows, Yankees games and Madison Square Garden concerts, generating $70 billion of economic activity. This month, Governor Andrew Cuomo took steps to reopen movie theaters, amusement parks, sports arenas and other venues at limited capacity but job growth and tourism remains stunted.As of Feb. 4, 59% of arts and entertainment businesses and 63% of sports and recreation venues in New York City have shut down altogether since the beginning of March, according to software and business-services provider Womply.Arts, entertainment and recreation in New York City accounted for 93,500 private jobs at 6,250 establishments in 2019, the comptroller said. More than half of these workers are men and 56% are White, compared to 50% of the city workforce who are men and 35% who are White.Direct relief from the federal government, as well as state and local programs to create safe venues for artists and entertainers, are steps in the right direction, but more help is needed “to keep the lights on,” he said.More than 60% of arts and entertainment companies in the city received loans from the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program. A new federal relief package provides $15 billion nationally for shuttered live venues.

New reports show extent of pandemic’s devastation of the arts in New York City, California and nationwide -- A number of reports released since the beginning of 2021 provide further insight into the unprecedented impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had—and is continuing to have—on the sphere of arts and culture in the US, which accounts for millions of arts workers and artists making up 3.4 percent of the total national work force. A report by the New York State Comptroller’s office, released February 24, on the effects of COVID-19 on the New York City arts, entertainment and recreation sector, which employed 128,400 workers in 2019, found that employment fell by 66 percent in 2020. However, as the study itself points out, given that this figure does not take into account nearly 31,000 self-employed workers and freelancers, often the first to lose work, the jobless rate is undoubtedly higher.This decline, the largest suffered by any sector in the city, more than wipes out the 42 percent growth of this field over the course of the decade from 2009 to 2019. The Comptroller’s report also cites an estimate by Womply, a software services company that tracks credit card transactions, that a staggering 59 percent of arts and entertainment businesses in New York City have closed in the past year, second only to the number of bars that have shut their doors.The fifteenth annual report by Otis College of Art and Design on California’s “Creative Economy”—which includes fine and performing arts, fashion, entertainment and digital media, creative goods and architecture—discloses that 175,360 jobs were lost in 2020. The February 25 report begins by mentioning the record growth (16 percent) of California’s Creative Economy between 2008 and 2019, which added 146,000 jobs during this period. But as in New York City, the massive loss of arts jobs in the last year is greater than the cumulative “record growth” over the previous 10 years. The report points to Creative Economy job cuts having “a massive ripple effect on supply chains and household spending,” and calculates an estimated 337,000 jobs have been lost through secondary impacts. In total, the number of both direct and secondary job losses from “damage to the Creative Economy,” argues the report, stands at over half a million in California. An ongoing series of national studies (updated March 1) by arts nonprofit “Americans for the Arts,” on the COVID-19-related impact on the arts, surveyed 33,000 artists and creative workers and 19,000 arts organizations.Of the artists and workers surveyed, 63 percent have become fully unemployed by the pandemic and 95 percent report a loss of creativity-based income, averaging $21,800 over the past year. Some 67 percent are unable to access the resources for creative work, while 78 percent have no post-pandemic financial recovery plan, and their top needs are unemployment insurance, food and housing assistance and loan forgiveness.Of the nonprofit arts and cultural organizations surveyed, 59 percent remain closed, while 11 percent are not confident they will survive the pandemic. Financial losses for these organizations are estimated at more than $15 billion, and 898,000 jobs are no longer being supported.A National Endowment of the Arts (NEA) report made public in January emphasizes the severe situation facing performing artists, in particular.

 Dr. Seuss Books Deemed Offensive Will Be Delisted From eBay – WSJ --Online marketplace eBay Inc said it is working to prevent the resale of six Dr. Seuss books that were pulled earlier this week by the company in charge of the late author’s works because they contain offensive imagery.“EBay is currently sweeping our marketplace to remove these items,” a spokeswoman for the company said in an email. New copies of the six books were no longer for sale online at major retailers such as Barnes & Noble on Thursday afternoon, which put eBay among the most prominent platforms for the books to be sold. Hundreds of listings for the six books could be found on the platform as of Thursday morning, though the number appeared to be lower than it was on Wednesday evening. The eBay spokeswoman said that it would take some time to review seller listings and that the company was monitoring newly published listings.Retailers frequently make decisions to remove products from their platforms for a variety of reasons. The move made by eBay comes at a time when there is rising concern, especially in conservative quarters, about how major tech platforms decide which content is acceptable. At the same time, others contend the platforms aren’t doing enough to police inappropriate content.Dr. Seuss Enterprises LP, which oversees Dr. Seuss’s publishing interests and ancillary areas, Tuesday said it had decided that six of the famed author’s books—“And to Think That I Saw It on Mulberry Street”; “If I Ran the Zoo”; “McElligot’s Pool”; “On Beyond Zebra!”; “Scrambled Eggs Super!” and “The Cat’s Quizzer”—would no longer be published because they “portray people in ways that are hurtful and wrong.” After the announcement, one woman said she listed two titles, “On Beyond Zebra!” and “McElligot’s Pool,” for sale on eBay on Wednesday. Later that day, she said, she received an email from eBay explaining that “On Beyond Zebra!” had been removed from sale because it violated eBay’s “offensive material policy.” The second title was pulled Thursday morning, she said.

Dr. Seuss Is 9 Of The Top 10 Amazon Best-Selling Books --If one needed an indication of just how absurd the left's decision to cancel Dr. Seuss over 'racist images' is - look no further than Amazon's Best Sellers list - where 9 out of the top 10 books are Dr. Seuss. In fact, 24 of the top 27 books are Dr. Seuss.In case you missed it, six Seuss books - including "And to Think That I Saw It on Mulberry Street" and "If I Ran the Zoo" will no longer be published due to 'racist and insensitive imagery,' according to the organization which preserves and protects the author's legacy."These books portray people in ways that are hurtful and wrong," Dr. Seuss Enterprises told The Associated Pres in a Tuesday statement coinciding with the late author's birthday (real name Theodor Seuss Geisel). "Ceasing sales of these books is only part of our commitment and our broader plan to ensure Dr. Seuss Enterprises' catalog represents and supports all communities and families," the statement continued.The other books affected are "McElligot’s Pool," "On Beyond Zebra!," "Scrambled Eggs Super!," and "The Cat’s Quizzer."What's more, President Biden removed all mentions of Seuss from Read Across America Day - held on Dr. Seuss' March 2 birthday.

 Thousands of students return for in-person schooling in Chicago - Today, some 37,000 kindergarten through fifth grade students are expected to return to school buildings for in-person learning in Chicago Public Schools (CPS), the third largest school district in the US. Educators for grades 6-8 are also to return to buildings on Monday in preparation for the return of their students, who also number in the tens of thousands, on March 8. The vast majority of CPS families are choosing to keep students at home and learning remotely in this dangerous phase of the pandemic. According to the Sun Times, more than 90 percent of schools will be under half full and more than 40 percent will be less than a quarter full. Most classrooms will have under 10 students returning and some rooms will have no in-person attendance at all. Instruction is taking place under the so-called “hybrid” model, where educators are responsible for teaching both students participating online and in the classroom. Referred to by some teachers as the “worst of both worlds,” hybrid learning poses serious challenges for time and attention to students, demanding management of technical aspects of online and in-person classroom simultaneously, and the modification of curriculum. In one of the most nakedly punitive aspects of the reopening, CPS is forcing teachers without in-person students and without an approved medical exception to come into buildings to teach remotely, instead of teaching from home, thus exposing themselves to other adults and children in the buildings. Their alternative is to take an unpaid leave until they receive a vaccine. CPS official guidance states if there are three or more cases in a building in a two-week period, that school building will need to move learning back online. The district has reportedly spent more than $980,000 on a contract tracing system that, at bottom, relies on self-reporting via questionnaire and email notifications of exposure, which is not appropriate for urgent notices and will not be seen quickly by families who have no computer or smartphone at home.

As Chicago schools reopen, principals look for thousands of absent students - Principal Jasmine Thurmond enthusiastically welcomed students back to King Academy of Social Justice on Monday morning. By afternoon, she and her staff members were working the phones in an effort to reach families who selected in-person learning, but didn’t appear on the first day. On Monday, the school in Englewood was missing about 40% of the students who said they were coming back. “We called just to say, ‘Hey, we missed you; we know you opted in, what else do you need?’” Thurmond said. As Chicago reopens more classrooms amid a trying year, principals are confronting the difficult task of finding students, both those who signed up for in-person learning and failed to show and those students who haven’t responded to district outreach at all. The district has said a “tremendous” centralized outreach campaign is ongoing. In the days leading up to Chicago’s biggest reopening push yet, 15,000 elementary and middle students still had not responded with their plans.Thurmond’s team encountered a litany of reasons why some families who signed up for in-person learning didn’t appear the first day: Some families had gotten out of the routine of in-person school and overslept — in response, Thurmond arranged wake up calls. Some work situations had changed, complicating logistics of in-person school. Some ran into trouble with the electronic health screener that ostensibly must be completed before anyone enters a school. As she discovered when prekindergarten classrooms reopened in January, some had first-day jitters about sending their child back to school in a pandemic. Of the school’s 238 students, 52% chose to continue remote learning, 31% of students opted to return to classrooms, and 17% didn’t respond at all — the latter a gray area in the district’s data that school leaders have spent the past few weeks trying to understand.

Editorial: Get. Kids. Back. In. School. - Chicago Tribune - Across the country, parents are demanding more aggressively that schools reopen, including high schools. They’re frustrated with slow bureaucracy on school reopening plans, obstinate teachers unions and pick-and-choose “science” to justify closed buildings. They’re worried about their kids’ mental health. The Jan. 7 death by suicide of Glenbrook North High School student Dylan Buckner is just one example of why parents are concerned. Buckner’s father in a Tribune interview said his son’s isolation and lack of school activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to his struggles.“I would argue, and I believe strongly, that Dylan’s death is not going to show up in COVID statistics, and yet absolutely it’s a COVID death,” Chris Buckner said.Las Vegas-area school officials moved quickly late last year to get schools reopened after noticing a spike in suicides and an uptick in a student mental health monitoring system. Eighteen students had died by suicide as of December. The superintendent of schools, Jesus Jara, wanted to move quickly to get kids back into their school routines.“Every day, it feels like we have run out time,” he told the New York Times.Where’s the sense of urgency for high schoolers in Chicago, still at home after almost a full year? Also from the New York Times: “The parents of a 14-year-old boy in Maryland who killed himself in October described how their son ‘gave up’ after his district decided not to return in the fall. In December, an 11-year-old boy in Sacramento shot himself during his Zoom class. Weeks later, the father of a teenager in Maine attributed his son’s suicide to the isolation of the pandemic.”And yet, Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Teachers Union still don’t have a plan to get high school kids back in school, even part time. They began negotiating this week, far too late.Many private schools, meanwhile, throughout Chicago and the suburbs have been operating on at least a hybrid basis all year. And no, those schools aren’t limited to areas of Chicago protected from high numbers of COVID cases. Almost every ZIP code in Chicago since last May where public and private schools coexist has experienced high positivity rates at one point or another.So there is no excuse as to why Chicago high schools have been closed for in-person learning for so long.Same for suburban high schools, including in Evanston where parents formed a coalitionto pressure school administrators to reopen for in-person learning. The high school recently began allowing some activities on campus for athletics, art workshops and student exercise including “mindfulness practice experiences in a meditation studio or other spaces.” So yoga in school, yes. Algebra, no.“Our kids are hurting. The failure to resume in-person learning at Evanston Township High School or even to provide credible, consistent metrics for its resumption is simply not acceptable,” parent Valerie Kimball, an Evanston pediatrician and part of the coalition to reopen schools, said in a statement. “A crisis is brewing, not just an educational crisis but one that threatens the physical and mental health of Evanston Township students.”

Union-sponsored deal announced in Philadelphia to reopen elementary schools on Monday - With the collaboration of the teachers unions, Philadelphia schools will begin in-person classes for about 3,000 kindergarten through second grade students Monday, despite the spread of new and more infectious coronavirus strains that are making their way into the population. The move comes as the result of a ruling by an “independent” mediator appointed by the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) and the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers (PFT) as part of a Memorandum of Agreement signed last fall. The mediator, Chicago doctor Peter Orris, reviewed the condition of buildings, in particular the ventilation systems, and issued a ruling determining whether they are currently “safe” to reopen or whether rudimentary changes should be made. According to the decision, 53 school buildings will reopen this Monday for K-2 students. Teachers have been instructed to report to their buildings today to prepare. Each week, another 50 schools will be opened until March 22, when the school district hopes to have all K-2 schools opened. The school district plans to then follow with special needs students, second language learners, and those in vocational programs, followed by the opening of other grades. The move in Philadelphia is part of a nationwide campaign, led by the Biden administration, to reopen all K-8 schools by the end of April. Along with schools in Philadelphia, schools in Pittsburgh are set to reopen April 6. In neighboring Maryland, schools reopened Monday as a result of pressure from Republican governor Larry Hogan. Montgomery County is the only jurisdiction in Maryland that hasn't yet opened for kindergarten, but opened for special education and vocational classes starting yesterday. It will open on March 15 for K-3. Elsewhere in the region, schools in Washington D.C. and Fairfax, Virginia have also been reopened. Under the continuing pandemic, as well as the threat of new and more dangerous variants of COVID-19, there are no possible conditions where reopening schools for in-person instruction is safe. On the contrary, studies have shown that school closures are among the most effective public health measures to contain the spread of the disease. The claim that ventilation systems can be made safe has been disproven in many scientific studies. CDC school opening guidelines ignore the critical role of ventilation and infection control in classrooms .

New York City Schools chancellor resigns as middle schools resume in-person learning - Last Thursday, New York City—the largest school district in the US with over 1.1 million students—reopened 471 middle schools for approximately 62,000 students in grades 6-8. Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio had already sent back middle school teachers on Monday, and is negotiating with the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) to try to reopen high schools by the end of the year. The volatility of the political situation, in which the Democratic Party has undertaken another highly unpopular step in opening more schools, was underscored by Thursday’s resignation of the Schools Chancellor Richard Carranza. The following day, it was announced that Carranza will be replaced by Meisha Porter in mid-March. Porter, who has been the executive superintendent of the Bronx since 2018, stated during her first news conference Friday that the city is “ready to go” on reopening high schools. She pledged to meet this goal before the end of the school year, in line with the Biden administration’s campaign to reopen the majority of schools by the end of April. On February 11, Carranza first announced that middle schools would reopen, the second phase of the city’s plan to resume in-person learning at all schools in order to send parents back to work producing profits for Wall Street. In a message to parents, Carranza falsely stated, “We have developed strong practices to help keep school communities healthy and safe.” He bragged about the totally inadequate testing program in which only 20 percent of students and staff are tested in each school on a weekly basis. The level of trust parents had in Carranza and de Blasio has been reflected in the low number of returning students, with only 30 percent of parents opting for in-person learning since September.

Shooting reported on first day of on-site learning at Arkansas middle school - A shooting was reported at a Pine Bluff, Ark., junior high school on Monday, leaving one boy in serious condition and another in police custody.The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports that the shooting occurred at Watson Chapel Junior High School, and that all campuses in the Watson Chapel district were closed down in its wake.Pine Bluff Police Chief Kelvin Sergeant said during a press conference that both the shooter and the victim were 15-year-old boys who attend the school. No other people were harmed.The victim was taken to Arkansas Children’s Hospital in Little Rock, Sergeant said.The shooter was apprehended in a nearby neighborhood by a dog team, the Democrat-Gazette reports, and was taken to the Jack Jones Juvenile Justice Center.District officials told the newspaper that the shooting was an “isolated incident” and that all students are now safe.Parents were permitted to pick up their children at around 11 a.m.This was the first day the town of Pine Bluff had returned to in-person learning amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to ABC's "Good Morning America."

 California High School Athletes Sue Governor Over Indoor Sports Restrictions --A group of high school athletes in Southern California are suing Gov. Gavin Newsom over the statewide ban on indoor youth sports during the CCP virus pandemic.Five student athletes from Orange County - two volleyball players, a basketball player, a wrestler, and a cheerleader - filed a joint lawsuit against Newsom, seeking a temporary restraining order that would allow them to return to competition under the same guidelines used by college or professional sports.Caleb Graham, who’s a junior on Anaheim’s Canyon High School basketball team, told Fox 11 LA that the governor’s decision is fundamentally unfair to younger athletes.“It’s been a little bit annoying considering I’ve been working hard all this quarantine and then we just keep getting cancelled, it’s just frustrating,” Graham said.The lawsuit argues that the Democratic governor’s youth sports rules violated the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment, since college and professional athletes in California have been allowed to compete indoors while high school athletes are prohibited from playing indoors unless in a “yellow tier” county, where the CCP (Chinese Communist party) virus situation is least severe and public health measures are least restrictive.

ENTERPRISE EDITORIAL: Permanent School Fund must prepare for lower oil, gas revenues -- As the energy landscape shifts dramatically, Texas must reconsider its reliance on the oil and natural gas industries to fund public education, writes the Beaumont Enterprise editorial board.

Colleges and universities in the US once again emerge as COVID-19 hotspots - According to new data collected by a New York Times survey, COVID-19 cases have exploded at colleges and universities throughout the US since campuses have reopened for in-person learning. Predictably, campuses across the country are seeing COVID-19 outbreaks in the tens of thousands as students return for the spring semester. The most recent New York Times, updated March 3, revealed that more than 17 colleges observed over 1,000 cases of new infections since the start of the year. University of Florida recorded a total of 2,138 new cases on campus for 2021 alone. Arizona State University has 1,822 cases, and University of Wisconsin-Madison has recorded 1,664 cases. Based on the survey, approximately 120,000 new cases this year have been directly linked to colleges and universities. Major infection outbreaks and new records on universities across the United States are flooding in daily. A massive outbreak was recently reported at University of Virginia, with 220 university employees and 1,335 students testing positive out of a student population of 25,000. The University of Delaware, where students are living on-campus and taking in-person classes for the current semester, recorded 324 new cases among students and employees last week. This figure is five times higher than the previous week, a staggering increase. Dartmouth logged 119 new cases just over the past weekend. At the University of Michigan, where case numbers account for 62 percent of all Washtenaw County cases, there were 352 new cases reported in a week, the highest infection number in a single week since the start of the pandemic in the county. In addition, three individuals at the university have tested positive for the new highly infectious variant of the COVID-19. There are presently 164 buildings closed because of COVID-19 cases discovered among students and staff school across multiple classrooms in just the last week. Situations like these are shared among countless universities all over the United States since the start of the spring semester.Of the 1,900 universities surveyed, a total of 102 universities had over 100 percent growth rate, meaning case numbers in 2021 exceeded case numbers in 2020. Among these universities, significant examples were Fairmont State University with a 295 percent growth rate and 236 cases of new infections this year; Jackson State University with a 271 percent growth rate and 160 new cases; Santa Clara University with a 256 growth rate and 243 new cases; and University of California, Davis with a 230 percent growth rate with 283 new cases. The growth rate was calculated by the New York Times by taking the ratio of 2021 cases to 2020 cases. Readers must keep in mind that each institution’s method of counting was inconsistent. For example, some colleges subtract cases from their tallies once people have recovered. Some colleges only report tests performed on campus, and some did not provide full data, therefore, making the data incomplete. The reckless reopening of colleges and universities comes on the heels of the fall semester in which more than 85 campuses reported at least 1,000 cases each—with some registering well over 5,000. More than 75,000 COVID-10 cases were confirmed in the last month of the fall semester alone. During the fall semester, there were more than 90 deaths involving college employees and students.

 Excessive social media use linked to binge eating in US preteens - Children in the United States who have more screen time at ages 9-10 are more likely to develop binge-eating disorder one year later, according to a new national study. The study, published in the International Journal of Eating Disorders on March 1, found that each additional hour spent on social media was associated with a 62% higher risk of binge-eating disorder one year later. It also found that each additional hour spent watching or streaming television or movies led to a 39% higher risk of binge-eating disorder one year later. Binge-eating disorder is characterized by eating large quantities of food in a short period of time, a feeling of loss of control during the binge, and experiencing shame or guilt afterwards. Binge-eating disorder can be severe and life-threatening if it causes heart disease or diabetes, and it is the most common eating disorder in the United States. People with binge-eating disorder may be overweight or of normal weight, but unlike those with bulimia, they do not compensate by vomiting, using laxatives or exercising excessively. They frequently eat alone or in secret and may eat until they are uncomfortably full.  "With remote learning, the cancellation of youth sports, and social isolation, children are currently exposed to unprecedented levels of screen time," said Nagata.

Party Like It’s 1984 --Kunstler -Chalk up a fatal blow to The Patriarchy. That avatar of toxic masculinity, Mr. Potato Head has been dumped into the same humid chamber of perdition where the ghosts of Nathan Bedford Forrest, Theodore Bilbo, and Phyllis Schlafly howl and squirm — liberating the billions of potatoes world-wide from the mental prison of binary sexuality. The move by Hasbro (bro? really??) may yet disappoint the legions in Wokesterdom as a-bridge-not-far-enough while they await the debut of Transitioning Potato Head, complete with play hormone syringe and play scalpel, so that the under-six crowd can begin to map out their own gender reassignments without the meddling of Adult 1 and Adult 2, formerly known as Mommy and Daddy.  Was it mere coincidence that the action in Toyland happened the same week that one Rachel Levine was grilled in hir Senate confirmation hearing for the post as Assistant Secretary for Health in the Department of Health and Human Services? The hearing tilted toward transphobia when Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) asked zie, a little too aggressively, if they were in favor of pubescent children opting for sexual reassignment in opposition to xyr parents. The nominee, who hirself transitioned from “male” to “female” in 2011, answered that transgender medical issues are “complex and nuanced.” True (perhaps). And probably more than a Senator who transitioned from ophthalmologist to politician might appreciate. Such are the great preoccupations of American leadership in these late days of empire. Are their any “historic firsts” left for Progressives to achieve in the march to a transhuman nirvana? An “undocumented” president? Animal representation in the House and Senate? A-I “entities” qualifying for public office — Governor Smartphone? Let’s face it, the pitiful old school humans in charge of things for so long are making a hash of our affairs. A cash register could probably do a better job as Chairman of the Federal Reserve than the always-waffley Jerome Powell. And a MacBook Pro might make a better president than Joe Biden in the brief daily operational hours before his managers a “call a lid.” We’d have to come up with some new personal pronouns for them, of course.  Pundits and observers-of-the-scene have warned us that all this artificially-generated turmoil over the sex-of-things is but one part of the prelude to a “Great Reset” in which people the world over are to be herded into corrals of ultra-regulated behavior. Of course, steers and cows are easier to push around than bulls, and the technology for transforming bulls into steers — or men in to eunuchs — is not that complex or nuanced. The question is: will enough American men submit to castration, either chemical, financial, political, or literal? Maybe not.

 Covid Baby Bust Has Governments Rattled --Yves Smith - Not surprisingly, many young people have put off having children as a result of the Covid pandemic, and some even say they’ve decided not to have kids or to have fewer. Fear of going to see the doctor (you can’t do all that OB/GYN stuff during pregnancy via Zoom) and worries about finances will do that. As some will no doubt point out, governments could have done a lot more to support incomes, so the child drought didn’t have to be as bad as it’s shaping up to be. And the drop in births isn’t limited to countries that are having trouble getting the disease tamed. China, which after its initial catastrophic outbreak has done an exemplary job of containing Covid, is also suffering a baby bust. Of course, there’s a case to be made that fewer people in advanced economies is a good thing. But arrayed against that are all the “because groaf” forces. The two drivers of growth are demographic growth, as in more people, and productivity increases. National leaders are afraid of becoming the new Japan, having an aging population and falling in the “size of economy” pecking order, when Japan has weathered a financial system crisis and implosion of real estate prices with remarkable grace.  But the big point is that the Covid impact on child-bearing is widespread and looks set to continue for quite a while. The old solution in advanced economies for low birth rates was immigration. But that’s now become fraught.  The countries worst afflicted include Italy, which was already suffering from a population contraction before a bad case of Covid. From the Wall Street Journal: A year into the pandemic, early data and surveys point to a baby bust in many advanced economies from the U.S. to Europe to East Asia, often on top of existing downward trends in births.A combination of health and economic crises is prompting many people to delay or abandon plans to have children. Demographers warn the dip is unlikely to be temporary, especially if the pandemic and its economic consequences drag on.“All evidence points to a sharp decline in fertility rates and in the number of births across highly developed countries,” said Tomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna. …A survey carried out by Italian research group Osservatorio Giovani between late March and early April in Western Europe’s five largest countries—Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the U.K.—found that over two-thirds of respondents who initially planned to have a child in 2020 decided to postpone or abandon plans to conceive over the next year.In the U.S., a survey by the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization, found that one-third of women polled in late April and early May wanted to delay childbearing or have fewer children because of the pandemic. The Brookings Institution estimated in December that, as a result of the pandemic, 300,000 fewer babies would be born in the U.S. in 2021 compared with last year. That estimate is based on survey evidence and the historical experience that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate reduces the birthrate by roughly 1%…. Historically, traumatic events such as pandemics, wars and economic crises have often resulted in fewer births. Some baby busts are short-lived and followed by rebounds. But the longer a crisis lasts, the higher the chances that potential births aren’t just postponed but never happen, say demographers. No rebound followed the global financial crisis, for instance. The U.S. birthrate—after rising to its highest level in decades in 2007—plunged after the 2008 crisis and has declined gradually ever since.  In comments at the Journal, one urologist in the US said that in his practice, vasectomies were way up.

With a halt in the decline of COVID-19 cases in the US, CDC director warns “the virus is not done with us” - On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, remarked at the White House briefing on the COVID pandemic, “Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions.” These comments were made in reference to the leveling of declines in new cases of COVID-19, which has public health officials extremely concerned. Since February 20, the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases has remained steady at just above 70,000 cases. Deaths due to COVID-19 have also stalled their decline with approximately 2,000 per day. Meanwhile, the B.1.1.7 variant’s detection has continued to rise, with 2,102 cases detected across 45 states. Though the number of cases is highest in Florida, they are growing fastest in Michigan, which now has 336 detected B.1.1.7 cases. New York and New Jersey, where daily COVID-19 cases continue to remain high, are adding new cases most rapidly by comparison to other states. New York City health officials are attempting to downplay the emergence of a new variant of the coronavirus, B.1.526, that has independently developed the E484K mutation, known to evade immunity, similar to the B1.351 and P.1 variants from South Africa and Brazil, respectively. Since first detected in November, the New York variant has been rapidly growing, representing 12.3 percent of all the variants detected in the northeast of the United States by mid-February. These developments in the pandemic’s epidemiological curves are congruent with the analysis made by the CDC and scientists like Dr. Michael Osterholm, who warned that these variants would become the dominant strains in March. Estimates are that B.1.1.7 accounts for 10 percent of all the SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the US and has a doubling time of seven to 10 days. Given its higher infectiousness compared to the “wild-type,” it implies that the half-measures and limited mitigation strategies in place will not control the virus’s spread.

Scientists discover why blood type may matter for COVID infection.  —A new study provides further evidence that people with certain blood types may be more likely to contract COVID-19. Specifically, it found that the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is particularly attracted to the blood group A antigen found on respiratory cells. The researchers focused on a protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus called the receptor binding domain (RBD), which is the part of the virus that attaches to the host cells. That makes it an important target for scientists trying to learn how the virus infects people. In this laboratory study, the team assessed how the SARS-CoV-2 RBD interacted with respiratory and red blood cells in A, B and O blood types. The results showed that the SARS-CoV-2 RBD had a strong preference for binding to blood group A found on respiratory cells, but had no preference for blood group A red blood cells, or other blood groups found on respiratory or red cells. The SARS-CoV-2 RBD's preference to recognize and attach to the blood type A antigen found in the lungs of people with blood type A may provide insight into the potential link between blood group A and COVID-19 infection, according to the authors of the study. It was published March 3 in the journal Blood Advances. "It is interesting that the viral RBD only really prefers the type of blood group A antigens that are on respiratory cells, which are presumably how the virus is entering most patients and infecting them," said study author Dr. Sean Stowell, from Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. "Blood type is a challenge because it is inherited and not something we can change," Stowell said in a journal news release. "But if we can better understand how the virus interacts with blood groups in people, we may be able to find new medicines or methods of prevention." These findings alone can't fully describe or predict how coronaviruses would affect patients of various blood types, the researchers noted. "Our observation is not the only mechanism responsible for what we are seeing clinically, but it could explain some of the influence of blood type on COVID-19 infection," Stowell and his team said.

 Study contributes to evidence for potential association between blood group a and COVID-19 --As researchers around the world work to identify and address risk factors for severe COVID-19, there is additional evidence that certain blood types could be associated with greater risk of contracting the disease. A new Blood Advances study details one of the first laboratory studies to suggest that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is particularly attracted to the blood group A antigen found on respiratory cells. In the study, researchers assessed a protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus called the receptor binding domain, or RBD. The RBD is the part of the virus that attaches to the host cells, so it is an important research target for understanding how infection occurs. The team assessed synthetic blood group antigens on respiratory and red blood cells found in blood group A, B, and O individuals, and analyzed how the SARS-CoV-2 RBD interacted with each unique blood type. They discovered that the RBD had a strong preference for binding to blood group A found on respiratory cells. It did not display a preference for blood group A red blood cells, or other blood groups found on respiratory or red cells. The capacity of the RBD to preferentially recognize and attach to the blood type A antigen found in the lungs of blood type A individuals may provide insight into the potential link between blood group A and COVID-19 infection."It is interesting that the viral RBD only really prefers the type of blood group A antigens that are on respiratory cells, which are presumably how the virus is entering most patients and infecting them," . "Blood type is a challenge because it is inherited and not something we can change. But if we can better understand how the virus interacts with blood groups in people, we may be able to find new medicines or methods of prevention."Based on their observations, the team sought to determine whether a similar binding preference existed for the RBD of SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Although the makeup of the virus differs, the SARS-CoV RBD exhibited the same preference to bind to the group A antigens on respiratory cells.

Covid Deranges the Immune System in Complex and Deadly Ways - There’s a reason soldiers go through basic training before heading into combat: Without careful instruction, green recruits armed with powerful weapons could be as dangerous to one another as to the enemy.The immune system works much the same way. Immune cells, which protect the body from infections, need to be “educated” to recognize bad guys — and to hold their fire around civilians.In some Covid patients, this education may be cut short. Scientists say unprepared immune cells appear to be responding to the coronavirus with a devastating release of chemicals, inflicting damage that may endure long after the threat has been eliminated.“If you have a brand-new virus and the virus is winning, the immune system may go into an ‘all hands on deck’ response,” said Dr. Nina Luning Prak, co-author of a January study on Covid and the immune system. “Things that are normally kept in close check are relaxed. The body may say, ‘Who cares? Give me all you’ve got.’”While all viruses find ways to evade the body’s defenses, a growing field of research suggests that the coronavirus unhinges the immune system more profoundly than previously realized.Some Covid survivors have developed serious autoimmune diseases, which occur when an overactive immune system attacks the patient, rather than the virus. Doctors in Italy first noticed a pattern in March 2020, when several Covid patients developed Guillain-Barré syndrome, in which the immune systems attacks nerves throughout the body, causing muscle weakness or paralysis. As the pandemic has surged around the world, doctors have diagnosed patients with rare, immune-related bleeding disorders. Other patients have developed the opposite problem,suffering blood clots that can lead to stroke.All these conditions can be triggered by “autoantibodies” — rogue antibodies that target the patient’s own proteins and cells.In a report published in October, researchers even labeled the coronavirus “the autoimmune virus.”“Covid is deranging the immune system,” said John Wherry, director of the Penn Medicine Immune Health Institute and another co-author of the January study. “Some patients, from their very first visit, seem to have an immune system in hyperdrive.” Although doctors are researching ways to overcome immune disorders in Covid patients, new treatments will take time to develop. Scientists are still trying to understand why some immune cells become hyperactive — and why some refuse to stand down when the battle is over.

Statin users 50% less likely to die from severe COVID-19 - Some 40 million people living in the United States take statins to help reduce their cholesterol levels and risk of heart disease. But statins can also have a strong anti-inflammatory, anti-blood clotting, and antiviral effect, all of which may help limit complications associated with severe COVID-19.That is why researchers are trying to figure out if statin use impacts COVID-19 outcomes.In a new study, a group of researchers, including cardiologists caring for hospitalized COVID-19 patients in New York, set out to compare patient outcomes between people who had used statins before hospitalization and those who had not.“Our study is one of the larger studies confirming this hypothesis, and the data lay the groundwork for future randomized clinical trials that are needed to confirm the benefit of statins in COVID-19,” says co-lead author of the study, Dr. Aakriti Gupta, MD, a cardiologist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center.If a successful clinical trial validates the researchers’ findings, statins could represent a low-cost, easy to access, relatively safe treatment option for COVID-19.Currently, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved only one drug to treat COVID-19 — remdesivir (Veklury). However, some other medications may be beneficial during certain stages of the disease.The study appears in Nature Communications.

Large number of COVID-19 survivors will experience cognitive complications - A research review led by Oxford Brookes University has found a large proportion of COVID-19 survivors will be affected by neuropsychiatric and cognitive complications. Psychologists at Oxford Brookes University and a psychiatrist from Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, evaluated published research papers in order to understand more about the possible effects of the SARS-COV-2 infection on the brain, and the extent people can expect to experience short and long-term mental health issues. The study found that in the short term, a wide range of neuropsychiatric problems were reported. In one examined study, 95% of clinically stable COVID-19 patients had post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other studies found between 17-42%* of patients experienced affective disorders, such as depression. The main short-term cognitive problems were found to be impaired attention (reported by 45% patients) and impaired memory (between 13-28% of patients). In the long term, neuropsychiatric problems were mostly affective disorders and fatigue, as well as impaired attention (reported by 44% of patients) and memory (reported between 28-50% of patients). "These conditions affect people's capacity to work effectively, drive, manage finances, make informed decisions and participate in daily family activities. "If even just a fraction of patients experience neuropsychiatric complications, the impact on public health services could be significant." Academics say that there is likely to be an increase in patients with psychiatric and cognitive problems who were otherwise healthy prior to COVID-19 infection. "Detailed cognitive evaluation and robust monitoring of patients should be considered in order to detect new neurological cases," continues Dr Kumar. "This will also enable health care providers to plan adequate health care and resources, and improve the quality of life for many COVID-19 survivors.

Administering zinc to covid-19 patients could help towards their recovery --Administering zinc supplements to covid-19 patients with low levels of this element may be a strategy to reduce mortality and recovery time. At the same time, it could help to prevent risk groups, like the elderly, from suffering the worst effects of the disease. These are the findings of a study by physicians and researchers from the Hospital del Mar, which has just been published in the journal Nutrients. The study analysed the zinc levels of 249 adult patients treated at the centre between 9 March and 1 April 2020, with an average age of 65 years. The most common symptoms presented at the time of admission were fever, cough and dyspnea. In all cases, they analysed their blood zinc levels, considering those under 50 μ/dl as being low. As explained by Dr. Güerri, first author of the clinical study, they analysed this parameter because "zinc is an essential element for maintaining a variety of biological processes, and altering its levels causes increased susceptibility to infections and increased inflammatory response". For this reason, "given the comorbidities associated with zinc deficiency and its immunomodulatory and antiviral actions, zinc levels and zinc supplementation may prove useful tools to tackle the covid-19 crisis". 1 in 4 patients had low levels of zinc. This group had more severe symptoms and higher levels of inflammation as measured by two markers, C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin 6 (IL-6), which mediate the inflammatory response. On average, their length of hospital stay was three times longer than patients with higher levels of zinc (25 days compared to 8). Regarding mortality, zinc levels were significantly higher in patients who survived the infection, 62 μ/dl, versus 49 μ/dl for those who died. Moreover, 1 in 5 patients with low zinc levels died. Conversely, the mortality rate of those presenting higher levels upon admission was 5%. The study reveals that a one-unit increase of zinc in blood plasma is directly linked to a 7% reduction of the risk of dying from covid-19. Dr. Güerri highlights that "we have shown the importance of zinc levels in patients' blood as an additional predictor of outcome in covid-19, as well as its potential as a therapeutic tool for treatment. We therefore propose this variable as a new parameter to predict the evolution of patients and we propose initiating clinical trials concerning zinc supplementation in patients with low levels admitted for covid-19 and implementing programmes to administer supplements to groups at risk of having low zinc levels to reduce the effects of the pandemic".

Coronavirus vaccines may reduce or eliminate symptoms of long covid - Some people with long covid, in which individuals have long-lasting symptoms after a covid-19 infection, are reporting improvements in their health after being vaccinated against the coronavirus. The reports are based on anecdotes and a small, informal survey rather than a scientific study, but the trend might offer clues to what causes the persistent symptoms. For most people, covid-19 is a mild or flu-like illness. However, some people are still ill many months after the infection.

How Does the Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Compare to Other Coronavirus Vaccines? 4 Questions Answered -- Yves here. We are running this post for one reason: as this article stresses, the testing of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines was conducted much earlier, when fewer variants were out and about. Therefore the Johnson & Johnson vaccine efficacy gives a much more realistic of what you could expect in terms of protection now. So far, with Pfizer and Moderna, all we have are airy assurances and largely in vitro studies against the new variants. Both companies have discussed the notion of a third “booster: shot to contend with known new variants, which looks an awful lot like an admission that they suspect or even know the efficacy of their current offerings is meaningfully lower against some of the new variants. Another way the efficacy data may not be comparable is in how they screened for Covid infections. Astra Zeneca tested all its clinical trial participants every week. By contrast, Pfizer used the dodgy approach of testing ONLY participants who developed “severe respiratory symptoms”. That means they ignored cases with loss of smell, the most reliable indicator of Covid, ones with digestive symptoms. and other symptom combinations that the CDC (and people I know) have found to be signals of Covid onset: fever, chills, headache, fatigute. And the “severe respiratory infection” only screen also means Pfizer did not catch mild or asymptomatic cases, even though we know they can do serious damage. From CBS News: A Texas trauma surgeon says it’s rare that X-rays from any of her COVID-19 patients come back without dense scarring. Dr. Brittany Bankhead-Kendall tweeted, “Post-COVID lungs look worse than any type of terrible smoker’s lung we’ve ever seen. And they collapse. And they clot off. And the shortness of breath lingers on… & on… & on.” “Everyone’s just so worried about the mortality thing and that’s terrible and it’s awful,” she told CBS Dallas-Fort Worth. “But man, for all the survivors and the people who have tested positive this is — it’s going to be a problem.” In other words, I’m sufficiently suspicious of the Pfizer efficacy numbers as to be willing to give Johnson & Johnson a go, particularly with its one-shot drill.

 New Orleans archdiocese calls for Catholics to avoid Johnson & Johnson vaccine  - The Catholic Archdiocese of New Orleans urged Catholics on Friday against taking a vaccine for COVID-19 manufactured by Johnson & Johnson because the vaccine is developed from stem cells obtained from two abortions.In a statement on the archdiocese's website, the organization argued that Johnson & Johnson's vaccine was "morally compromised.""The archdiocese must instruct Catholics that the latest vaccine from Janssen/Johnson & Johnson is morally compromised as it uses the abortion-derived cell line in development and production of the vaccine as well as the testing," the statement read. "We advise that if the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine is available, Catholics should choose to receive either of those vaccines rather than to receive the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine because of its extensive use of abortion-derived cell lines," the archdiocese continued.A request for comment from Johnson & Johnson was not immediately returned. Catholic groups that oppose abortion have long criticized medical companies that use human cell lines from aborted fetuses, while companies including Johnson & Johnson have defended the process as leading to medical breakthroughs on the disease prevention front. "As a research tool, human pluripotent stem cells promise to expand our understanding of normal physiologic processes such as cell growth and differentiation, and to enable new insights into disease, which may lead to new ways to prevent, diagnose and treat a wide variety of disorders," reads a statement on the company's website. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine became the third candidate authorized for emergency use in the U.S. earlier this month, joining two others on the market produced by drugmakers Moderna and Pfizer.

Fauci: Military personnel opting out of vaccine are 'part of the problem' - Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, on Thursday, told U.S. military members that those of them who decide not to get the coronavirus vaccine are inadvertently “part of the problem” of prolonging the pandemic. While speaking in a town hall with Blue Star Families, a nonprofit organization dedicated to serving military personnel and their families, Fauci told service members that they are “part of the solution to this outbreak.” “Because by getting infected, even though you may not know it, you may be inadvertently transmitting the infection to someone else, even though you have no symptoms,” Fauci said during the event, according to CNBC. “In reality, like it or not, you’re propagating this outbreak,” the White House’s chief medical adviser added. “So instead of being part of the solution, you are innocently and inadvertently being part of the problem by not getting vaccinated.” Fauci went on to say that while military members must “think of your own health,” they must also “think about your societal obligation, including people close to you personally as well as other members of families of other individuals.” The remarks come after the Department of Defense last month revealed that a third of service members had decided to opt-out of getting the coronavirus vaccine. Maj. Gen Jeff Taliaferro, vice director for operations at the Pentagon, said during a House hearing on the Armed Forces’ response to COVID-19 that despite the refusal among some service members to get the vaccine, they were still deployable, and that “services and commands” that have been set up over the past year have allowed the Armed Forces to operate in a “COVID environment.” Maj. Gen. Steven Nordhaus also revealed in the hearing that vaccinations were voluntary for military members. A week after the hearing, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin released a video promoting the safety of the coronavirus vaccine and encouraging military personnel to seek out credible information on the inoculation from agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The CDC as of Thursday has recorded that more than 54 million people in the U.S. have received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine, with about 27.8 million receiving two doses.

Some LGBTQ People Are Saying 'No Thanks' to the Covid Vaccine - At her last doctor’s appointment, Erica Tyler, who lives in Brooklyn, N.Y., joked that she didn’t want to get vaccinated for Covid-19 “because another foot might grow out of my forehead. And I’m not ready for that.”Ms. Tyler, 68, a cancer survivor who has diabetes and high blood pressure, lost her wife to a heart attack nearly a year ago and has been staying home throughout the pandemic to avoid becoming infected with the coronavirus. But when the vaccine became available, she did not rejoice.“I was resistant,” Ms. Tyler said. She described feeling unsettled by the push to vaccinate minorities, especially given how Black people have been underserved or mistreated by the medical establishment in the past.“I felt that they were trying to storm people who they wanted to eliminate out of society,” she said, namely “the elderly and the Black people.” Research has shown that sexual and gender minorities, and especially people of color, are more vulnerable to becoming infected with the coronavirus and also more likely to haveunderlying conditions that could make them severely ill if they were to contract Covid-19. But many of the very people who are most at risk within these communities are also hesitant to take the vaccine, according to a recent study and interviews with health care workers as well as people of color who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or queer.

Among homeless populations, a deep mistrust of vaccines. Here's how cities are intervening. When it came time for residents and staff at the New York Avenue homeless shelter in northeast Washington, D.C., to receive their first doses of Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine, David Durham, who’s lived at the men’s shelter for three years, was scared.Like many at the shelter, he’d been bombarded by vaccine misinformation: Neighborhood talk and rumors turned into elaborate conspiracy theories, many of which played into the mistrust that homeless people already have of government services.But he got the shot.“I’ve heard so many conspiracy theories, like they’re putting a chip in you, that they’re going to inject some sort of liquid in you, that you’re going to be a guinea pig,” said Durham, a 34-year-old D.C. native. “But I said, ‘You know what, I have to take it upon myself to lead by example.’”Across the country, many cities and major urban centers have begun the work of vaccinating homeless individuals housed within their shelter systems, but few municipalities have ventured into the streets where the matter is compounded by mistrust, logistical hurdles and limited resources.The newly authorized Johnson & Johnson vaccine, however, has provided a timely solution for cities that have been struggling to administer the two previously available vaccines to their sheltered homeless, and especially their unsheltered homeless, who are more transient and at increased risk amid the pandemic.So far, their methods have been as varied as their preparedness.In Washington, city officials have implemented a multi-agency strategy for vaccinating homeless individuals regardless of age or condition, but have mostly refrained from vaccinating those who are living on the street. Durham was one of the first within his shelter to receive the vaccine, and then became a peer educator, one of about two dozen currently or previously homeless individuals tasked by the city with educating other homeless individuals on the safety and efficacy of the different vaccines.

Should you get vaccinated if you recovered from Covid? Expert advice --With Covid-19 vaccine shortages and problems with slow roll out, do people who already had the virus and have fully recovered need to get the vaccine, too? And is it safe for them?The Centers for Disease Control's guidance says even people who've had Covid can benefit from the getting the vaccine."Due to the severe health risks associated with Covid-19 and the fact that reinfection with Covid-19 is possible, you should be vaccinated regardless of whether you already had Covid-19 infection," according to the CDC. Here's why.When someone is infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, their immune system creates antibodies, which are proteins that fight off infections and help prevent future infections from occurring. That is called "natural immunity."(The mRNA vaccines currently available for Covid work by giving cells instructions to make a non-infectious piece of the coronavirus' spike protein. The immune system detects the copies of the spike protein and creates antibodies against it.)At this stage, there are still lots of questions about how long natural immunity from Covid lasts and whether it could prevent reinfection, Dr. David Wohl, an infectious disease physician at the University of North Carolina, tells CNBC Make It.Studies on people who were exposed to Covid and then recovered have shown that their antibodies remained pretty stable, and only dropped "modestly" after six or eight months. Another promising outcome: coronavirus-specific B and T cells (which work together to remember and destroy infections) also appear to increase and remain high after infection.New research that hasn't been peer-reviewed yet found that people who have already had Covid tend to have higher antibody responses after their first dose of the mRNA vaccines than two doses of the vaccine in people who haven't had it. Some immunologists argue that people who've recovered from Covid should only need one dose of a vaccine."If you've had Covid-19, [a vaccine] may augment or help increase the durability, and even maybe the breadth, of your immune response against coronavirus," Wohl says.

From Pfizer to Moderna: who's making billions from Covid-19 vaccines? - The arrival of Covid-19 vaccines promises a return to more normal life – and has created a global market worth tens of billions of dollars in annual sales for some pharmaceutical companies.Among the biggest winners will be Moderna and Pfizer – two very different US pharma firms which are both charging more than $30 per person for the protection of their two-dose vaccines. While Moderna was founded just 11 years ago, has never made a profit and employed just 830 staff pre-pandemic,Pfizer traces its roots back to 1849, made a net profit of $9.6bn last year and employs nearly 80,000 staff.But other drugmakers, such as the British-Swedish AstraZeneca and the US pharma Johnson & Johnson, have pledged to provide their vaccines on a not-for-profit basis until the pandemic comes to an end.Whether the market remains a money-spinner in the future depends on whether the vaccines become the type that need just a one-off shot – as for measles – or if regular vaccinations will be required, such as for flu. But in the immediate future, there are big financial returns up for grabs.Here, we look at who is in line for the biggest gains – and which shareholders have already made fortunes.

• Pfizer/BioNTechmRNA vaccine Pfizer’s Comirnaty vaccine, developed with Germany’s BioNTech, is based on re-engineered messenger RNA – the molecule that sends genetic instructions from DNA to a cell’s protein-making machinery. It was the first to be approved and has to be stored at ultra-low temperatures (-70C). Governments have ordered about 780m shots, including the US (200m doses for $3.9bn) and the EU commission (300m), while 40m doses will go to lower-income nations via the Covax facility. It costs $39 (£28) for two doses in the US and about $30 in the EU.Expected sales in 2021: $15bn-$30bn Pfizer, which splits costs and profit margins equally with BioNTech, expects $15bn in 2021 sales based on current deals. The final number could be twice as high, as Pfizer says it can potentially deliver 2bn doses this year. The two founders of BioNTech, the husband and wife team Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci – both doctors – became multibillionaires last year, when the potential of the vaccine and the deal with Pfizer prompted the shares to surge.
• ModernamRNA vaccine- The vaccine produced by the US biotech firm, based in Massachusetts, must be stored at freezer temperature (-20C). The UK has ordered 17m doses, the EU bought 310m with an option for a further 150m in 2022, while the US government ordered 300m shots. Japan purchased 50m shots. Moderna charges $30 for the required two shots in the US and $36 in the EU.Expected sales in 2021: $18bn-$20bnModerna has said it expects 2021 sales of $18.4bn. Barclays analyst Gena Wang forecasts sales of $19.6bn, $12.2bn in 2022, and $11.4bn in 2023, assuming recurring vaccinations.
• Johnson & JohnsonAdenovirus vaccineJ&J’s jab, the world’s first single-shot Covid-19 vaccine, was developed by its Janssen division in Belgium. It uses adenovirus-26, a rare variant of cold virus. It was approved in the US in late February and can be stored at standard fridge temperatures for at least three months. Big orders include the US, UK (30m doses plus option for 22m), the EU (up to 400m doses), and Covax nations(500m doses through 2022). Expected sales in 2021: up to $10bnThe company aims to deliver at least 1bn doses this year, which would generate $10bn. The US government has ordered 100m doses, with the option to buy 200m more, and is paying $10 a shot.
• AstraZenecaAdenovirus vector vaccineThe vaccine developed with Oxford University uses a modified chimpanzee cold virus and can be kept at fridge temperature. Viral vector vaccines use a harmless virus to deliver a piece of genetic code to cells. Big orders have come from the UK (100m), the EU (up to 400m), the US (300m) and Japan (£120m).Expected sales in 2021: $2bn-$3bnAnalysts at SVB Leerink are forecasting sales of $1.9bn this year and $3bn in 2022. The 2021 figure could be far higher if AstraZeneca achieves its ambitious target of 3bn doses. The company has pledged to supply the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis during this pandemic, and charges $4.30 to $10 for two doses.
• SinovacInactivated virus vaccine The CoronaVac jab has been administered for emergency use in several Chinese cities since last summer, and was approved by China’s regulator in early February. Sinovac, which is based in Beijing, has struck deals with Brazil, Chile, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. In January, Turkey and Indonesia kicked off their vaccination campaigns with the jab. Sinovac also plans to supply 10m vaccine doses to Covax nations. Expected sales in 2021: billions of dollars, but unclearSinovac says it can produce more than 1bn doses this year. The vaccine has been priced at $60 for two shots in some Chinese cities. Sinovac’s Indonesian partner Bio Farma, which has ordered at least 40m doses, said it would cost $27.20 for two doses locally.

Univ. of Miami finds New York and Brazil COVID-19 variants in South Florida – Researchers at the University of Miami are uncovering several more COVID-19 variant strains right here in South Florida, including three cases of two different Brazil variants and now a case of the so-called New York variant.Dr. David Andrews of UM’s Miller School of Medicine calls it “really eye-opening.”“We’re discovering variants of many different varieties,” he adds. “From many different locations, from an array of countries and array of sources.”Andrews, an associate professor in the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, says the researchers were “very surprised in our first couple hundred sequencing results we turned up three variants originating from Brazil.”The mutation from the United Kingdom is so far the most prevalent variant strain circulating throughout Florida — and believed to be more easily spread. In their latest statistics posted Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had verified 500 cases of that U.K. variant in Florida, most of any state in the country.Furthermore, of a random sampling of COVID-19 positive results, the University of Miami researchers found that 25% had the U.K. variant.But the concern with the newer New York variant, much like the Brazilian strain, is its suspected ability to bypass immunity, including from a vaccine.“We entered into this not expecting to find any particular variant, and we found a case of the New York variant, and yes the concern for the New York variant is an immune escape mechanism as well,” Andrews says.So, what about the millions statewide already vaccinated? While vaccines have shown to be effective against the U.K. variant, Andrews says they should be at least partially effective at protecting against other mutations.“Both Pfizer and Moderna are starting clinical trials with slight variations of the vaccine to be able to address those structural differences in the spike protein,” he says.The CDC’s latest data on Thursday showed only one verified case of the Brazilian variant,which Local 10 News previously reported was located in Miami-Dade County..The new variants discovered at the University of Miami add to that.UM says it is one of “a handful” of academic medical centers across the U.S. testing COVID-19 samples for variants and sequencing them.“Because of our geographic location, it’s very important for us to develop these capabilities,” said Dr. Stephen D. Nimer, director of the Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center, who developed the school’s COVID-19 testing program. “If we are able to find other variants, we can then determine whether they are covered by our vaccines and whether they actually cause more severe disease, and all of this information is helpful for the world to know.”The Florida Department of Health has said that the state’s higher numbers of confirmed variants are in part a result of greater efforts to sequence and look for those other strains than other states.

 Fearing Covid-19 Surge, Florida Officials Crack Down on Spring Breakers – WSJ —Nearly a year after some Florida spring breakers refused to let the coronavirus interrupt their parties and helped trigger a wave of lockdowns, this city is bracing for a fresh crop of revelers. Though many colleges have canceled spring break to prevent students from congregating in vacation spots, officials here are expecting a large influx over the coming weeks. Flights and hotels are cheap. Brutal winter storms in much of the country left people yearning for an escape. And Florida’s pandemic rules on bars and nightclubs are more lenient than those in many states. “We could potentially see a truly outsized spring break at a time when the last thing we want are major gatherings,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat. He cited public-health specialists’ concerns that such crowds could generate another surge of Covid-19 cases. Bars, restaurants and clubs will be open at no less than 50% capacity, because the city can’t shut them down under a state executive order. But Miami Beach—a barrier island known for its stylish hotels and spirited nightlife—is taking a zero-tolerance approach. Officials have beefed up restrictions from Feb. 22 to April 12 and expect peak activity in March. They have also launched an ad campaign urging young people to vacation responsibly. More police officers and code-compliance staffers are patrolling to enforce measures including a midnight curfew and bans on alcohol and boom boxes on the beach. Music at venues can’t exceed ambient noise levels. Beach patrols are ensuring groups maintain social distance and wear masks when appropriate.

March 1 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations -  NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 1st.  "In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 76.9 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 1.82 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more.  The US has averaged 1.5 million tests per day over the last week.  The percent positive over the last 7 days was 4.4%.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to below 1%, so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.  There were 1,224,488 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 48,092 positive tests. Over 1,200 US deaths have been reported in March. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)  This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.  The dashed line is the post-summer surge low for hospitalizations.

U.S. Cases Fell 61% Last Month; WHO Issues Warning: Virus Update -Covid-19 infections in the U.S. had the biggest monthly decline in February, plunging 61% to about 2.42 million, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg show. That helped lower the death count from January by 25% to 71,772. Overall, almost 514,000 Americans have succumbed to Covid-19 and about 28.7 million residents -- or 8.7% of the population -- have been infected by it. A new Covid variant detected in New York is being watched “very, very closely” by U.S. health officials, Anthony Fauci said. The variant, known scientifically as B.1.526, likely started off in the Washington Heights section of Manhattan, Fauci, a top adviser to President Joe Biden on the pandemic, said. It is one of five concerning variants now being tracked nationally by health officials.  Johnson & Johnson is looking for manufacturing partnerships to increase supply of its vaccine, which was cleared Saturday by U.S. regulators. The European Commission is set to unveil a proposal this month for a digital vaccine passport, which could ease a return to normality for those who are immunized. But critics say it may be discriminatory and infringe on privacy.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to reassure the public over the emergence of a Brazilian variant. Italy will tighten curbs in some cities, Oslo will close restaurants and shops, and Finland has triggered a state of emergency. France needs another four to six weeks before the government can start lifting curbs, President Emmanuel Macron signaled.Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases pass 114 million; deaths exceed 2.5 million
• Vaccine Tracker: More than 242 million shots given worldwide
• U.S. Spotlight: Hospitalization flare-ups are reminder it’s not over
• J&J’s Covid vaccine could protect millions -- if people take it
• Vaccine challenge shifts from supply to demand, official says
• What to Know About Severe Reactions to Covid Vaccines: QuickTake

Dozens of Whole Foods employees at a Detroit store have tested positive for COVID-19 and health officials are now sending a warning to customers -- A Whole Foods Market in Detroit is being pummeled by COVID-19 after 24 employees tested positive for the virus, Detroit's health department said in a public health notice. So far, no customers have reported catching the virus as a result of the outbreak, but the city's health department is asking shoppers who visited the store from February 12 to 22 to monitor themselves for potential symptoms. Employees are not allowed to return to the store until they've quarantined, showed no symptoms, and tested negative, according to the health department. It's now also working with the Amazon-owned grocer for vaccine access and safety procedure monitoring. "The safety of our team members and customers remains our top priority, which is why we are taking comprehensive action to address this issue and have rolled out extensive measures to keep people safe in our stores," a Whole Foods spokesperson told Insider in an email statement. The spokesperson also noted the mandatory negative test result before workers can return to the store. Marc Perrone, the international president of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, has called the Detroit Whole Foods outbreak "another wake-up call to grocery companies and elected leaders." "The fact is that this pandemic is far from over and national grocery companies are failing to do what is necessary to protect essential workers and the customers who depend on them every day," Perrone said in the press release. In December, a worker at the afflicted Whole Foods store sent a mass email to employees asking the grocer to update its policies to better protect its employees. In the letter, the unnamed employee asked for several changes, including the reintroduction of hazard pay and health benefits, and a face mask or shield mandate. "If we allow this to continue, the company will remain completely disconnected from the interest of their workers, taking advantage of our fear and desperation in these trying times," the email read. "No one would argue that the COVID outbreak is ... Amazon's fault, but the company has no excuse for such a cruel reaction to this pandemic." 

Concerns rise over impact of Texas power failure on spread of COVID-19 - Concerns are spreading over the potential for the disaster caused by last month’s winter storm—which forced people across Texas to huddle together in homes, cars and warming shelters and wait in long lines for food and water—to lead to an increase in COVID-19 infections. During the week that millions across Texas were without water and power, coronavirus case reporting plummeted in the state. Since then, the number of confirmed cases has risen sharply but it is still too early to confirm the cause of the uptick. Experts warn the circumstances during the storm were conducive to the development of a massive “superspreader” event. “There are very real possibilities that the coronavirus either had superspreader events or was more easily transmissible because people were congregated indoors for long periods of time,” Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, and epidemiologist at UTHealth School of Public Health in Dallas, told the New York Times. “It is a little bit worrying.” Without a way of keeping warm in their homes amid subfreezing temperatures, families were forced to temporarily stay with friends and family. The homeless had to choose between weathering the storm outdoors or staying in overcrowded warming shelters. Reports from multiple cities indicate thousands of people sought shelter during the cold. The Texas Tribune reported nearly 200 people took refuge at a convention center in Fort Worth. In Dallas, another convention center held about 650 people. Approximately 500 people were staying in emergency shelters in Austin, while one warming center in Houston housed almost 800 people. At the peak of the state’s water crisis, more than 14 million Texas did not have access to water. This means millions could not practice basic hygiene, something crucial in the middle of a pandemic. In fact, Texas’ water issues are ongoing. As of Monday, about 390,000 Texans are still under boil water advisories. Even in large cities like Houston, residents are entering their second week without water. “Even though the power is on and the water pressure is normalized, there are thousands of homes and apartments that have been affected because of busted pipes,” Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner reported in a press release Sunday. “They still do not have water, so there is a tremendous need.” Texas has yet to calculate the full impact of the storm, but experts note Texas’ infrastructure failure created conditions ideal for a rise in infections.

 Biden Slams "Neanderthal-Thinking" Republicans Over Texas, Mississippi COVID Policy President Biden has slammed Texas and Mississippi for lifting COVID-19 restrictions, calling it "Neanderthal thinking.""I think it's a big mistake...It's critical, critical, critical that they follow the science…" said Biden.  Newly minted CDC Director Rochelle Walensky wants residents of Texas and Mississippi to continue wearing face masks despite the governors there lifting COVID-19 restrictions amid a decline in cases."I think we, the CDC, have been very clear that now is not the time to release all restrictions," said Walensky during a White House pandemic briefing in response to a question about reopening Texas. "Every individual is empowered to do the right thing here, regardless of what states decide."On Tuesday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott enraged the left after announcing that the state would lift its mask mandate and reopen businesses next week, while also banning counties from fining or jailing people who disregard local measures.Effective March 10, all businesses will be allowed to open at 100% of capacity, Abbott said during a media briefing in Lubbock on Tuesday. His executive order allows county judges to reinstate anti-virus rules should hospitalizations surge.

Houston Methodist finds multiple cases of significant coronavirus mutations, including Brazil strain --  Houston Methodist discovered 28 cases of coronavirus variants in its latest batches of virus genomes sequenced from patients with positive COVID-19 tests, including what might be the state’s first confirmation of four cases of the Brazil variant known as P.1. Houston is the first city in the U.S. to have all the major variants documented by genome sequencing. “There is evidence to indicate that the Brazil P.1 variant may spread faster and be resistant to certain vaccines and monoclonal antibody therapies – much like the South Africa variant known as B.1.351 – and may still be able to cause disease in some people who are inoculated with Pfizer or Moderna vaccines,” said James M. Musser, M.D., Ph.D., chair of the Department of Pathology and Genomic Medicine at Houston Methodist. “The numbers of the major variants we have identified in our large sequencing study are disquieting. The genome data indicate that these important variants are now geographically widely distributed in the Houston metropolitan region.” To get ahead of the virus and detect mutations that may correlate with patient outcomes, such as causing more severe disease or detrimentally impacting antibody treatments and vaccines, Houston Methodist began sequencing strains of the COVID-19 virus from positive tests beginning in February 2020. Processing sometimes as many as 1,700 samples per week, Houston Methodist is leading the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing efforts in the U.S., thus far sequencing 20,453 of Houston’s coronavirus genomes since the start of the pandemic. In the most recent batches of 3,000-plus genomes, the U.K., South Africa and Brazil variants were detected. These three types represent the major “variants of concern” designated by public health and medical authorities. The concern is that these three variants may be more transmissible and perhaps less susceptible to some vaccines and monoclonal antibody therapies. The California and New York variants were also detected.Given the immediate community impact of these findings, a report was posted on the preprint server medRxiv. The manuscript, titled “Sequence Analysis of 20,453 SARS-CoV-2 Genomes from the Houston Metropolitan Area Identifies the Emergence and Widespread Distribution of Multiple Isolates of All Major Variants of Concern,” has also been submitted for peer-review to a medical journal.

The importance of refining our search for mutant coronavirus strains -- The great Greek tragedian Sophocles said “Look and you will find it - what is unsought will go undetected.” This holds true today. In the Memphis regional area, local laboratory directors looked. We conducted COVID-19 testing with sequencing to identify mutant strains, and we found them. Since Jan. 1, we sequenced 453 random and selected samples, about 2.3% of the positive cases. We found 12 UK strains, 1 South African strain, 2 Brazilian P2 strain, 7 California strains and 1 New York strain. When we called our counterparts in sister cities, they had few or no reported mutant strains. They are simply not looking. They are not sequencing for mutant strains. Across America this is the norm. Over a year ago, when life was “normal,” COVID-19 was stealthily penetrating our country. CDC was woefully behind in testing and we did not act with sufficient urgency. The virus epidemiologically evolves through three critical stages: seeding, clustering and community transmission. Seeding occurs when a few cases from outside enter the region, as from China and Europe to the United States. Then there is clustering. Locally one case leads to others which can be linked with aggressive contact tracing. Lastly, there is community transmission when cases are occurring in large numbers with no easy identifiable common link. The consequences of letting the original virus evolve were devastating with over a half million Americans dead and trillions in economic losses in one year. 

Coronavirus dashboard for March 3: as good news on vaccinations accumulates, the Dakotas already appear to be shambling towards herd immunity -There is more and more good news on the vaccination front. In addition to the fact that the single-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been approved, President Biden has made use of the Defense Production Act to enlist competitor Merck in additional production of the J&J vaccine. Biden also announced that there would be enough vaccine produced to supply doses for every American adult by the end of May.Further, the pace of vaccination has picked up to new highs since the setbacks due to recent weather, with the 7 day average just short of 2 million per pay at 1.946 million as of yesterday:And just shy of 80 million doses have been administered – 78.6 million as of yesterday: By about Memorial Day weekend, the principal obstacle to herd immunity is going to be anti-vaxxers and other vaccine-hesitant people, primarily stupid GOPers. I wonder if by that time employers will make being vaccinated a condition of returning to work facilities.In the meantime, one other recent development has jumped out from the graphs: it looks increasingly like both North and South Dakota have shambled towards herd immunity already. That’s because both States’ levels of total infections look close to perfect representations of an “S”-shaped type of exponential curve called a logistical curve. This occurs when a population approaches a saturation point.Here’s the graphic evidence in a nutshell: Both North and South Dakota have the highest rate of *confirmed* infections at roughly 13% of their entire populations. Further, South Dakota is close to, and North Dakota is already among, the lowest 10 States for the level of new confirmed infections. Since neither one of these two jurisdictions is exactly known for their aggressive anti-COVID restrictions, we are either seeing a recent onset of panic among the populace after their late autumn outbreaks or else we are seeing a virus that is facing an ever-thinning number of susceptible individuals.Most notably, during the autumn outbreaks At least South Dakota had close to a 60% positivity rate among people who were tested, which went on for several weeks – where 3% is the rate at which it is thought that testing is probably picking up close to all actual infections: In other words, during the weeks that roughly 10% of their entire populations are *confirmed* to have contracted the disease, it’s entirely likely that some multiple of that percentage were in fact infected, but either weren’t able or just didn’t bother, to get tested. If during those weeks for every one confirmed positive there were 4 actual but unconfirmed infections, then by Christmas an outright majority of the population of both North and South Dakota had actually contracted the disease.I want to emphasize that I’m not claiming that either State has actually arrived at herd immunity yet. For that to be the case I would expect the rate of current infections to be closer to 1 in 100,000 daily than 10 in 100,000 – and I would expect to see continuing declines, which really hasn’t been the case in the past several weeks. And I am *certainly* not claiming that the result is the case of good government! Far from it, both North and South Dakota have among the highest confirmed death rates from COVID at roughly 1 death for every 500 persons, putting them in the top 10 States: I would love to see what a comparative graph of excess deaths above normal looks like for those 10 States because I suspect that a significant part of the Dakotas’ death toll was never reported.

March 4 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations -- NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th.From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 4th.  "In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 82.6 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.04 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more. The US has averaged 1.5 million tests per day over the last week.  The percent positive over the last 7 days was 4.2%. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to below 1%, so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,595,613 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 65,487 positive tests.Over 7,000 US deaths have been reported in March. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. The dashed line is the post-summer surge low for hospitalizations.

One year since pandemic hit New York, new strain emerges in upper Manhattan— A new strain of the coronavirus, known as B.1.526, is proliferating vigorously across New York City, after having originated in February in a part of upper Manhattan known as Washington Heights.  “I am concerned about its immune escape,” Dr. Eric Topol told Yahoo News, a reference to the strain’s heightened ability to evade the body’s antiviral armaments, including a vaccine. Vaccines remain broadly effective against the coronavirus, including B.1.526, but the emergence of new varieties will require constant vigilance from virologists. The eventual goal is a universal coronavirus vaccine that could defang any and all versions of the spiky pathogen. The new variant’s arrival comes along exactly a year after New York City began reporting coronavirus cases. The city became the epicenter of the nation’s fight against the pandemic, and it has only recently begun to emerge from months of life under lockdown. Restaurants have been allowed to seat diners inside only sinceFebruary.  “The variants are the X factor here,” New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday, even as he warned that people should not attribute “mythological powers” to the new coronavirus variants. Public health officials have maintained that proper face coverings and social distancing remain effective in preventing transmission.  “There’s nothing different that we need people to do in New York,” said Dr. Jay Varma, an adviser to the mayor on the pandemic. For emphasis, he held up his face covering: a magenta cloth mask and, underneath it, an ordinary surgical mask. Public health officials now believe that double masking should be the norm. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, raised concerns about the new variant during a Monday briefing by the White House coronavirus task force. The Brooklyn-born immunologist said that the strain was “now gaining” and the Biden administration was taking it “very seriously.”

Scientists Discover Mutation of U.K. Coronavirus Strain in Oregon --SCIENTISTS IN OREGON have discovered a mutated version of the highly transmissible variant of COVID-19 first discovered in Britain.Researchers have identified just one case of the variant in Oregon, but genetic analysis suggests it was contracted from the community and did not originate in the patient. They also warned that this variant has a mutation that may make it less susceptible to vaccines. The find was published in a database shared by scientists.The U.K. variant of the coronavirus was first detected in September and has been spreading rapidly across the U.S., currently accounting for at least 2,500 cases in 46 states, according to The New York Times. However, this version of that variant appears to be more contagious and more deadly than the original version and could account for most of the infections in America in the near future. Discovered in a patient in Portland, it is similar to the U.K. strain but carries a mutation seen in variants of the virus being spread in South Africa, Brazil and New York City. This mutation has also already been observed in Britain. The mutation was in a sample scientists collected from an outbreak in a health care setting. Of the 13 samples analyzed, 10 were the U.K. strain and one was the new mutation. "We didn't import this from elsewhere in the world – it occurred spontaneously," Brian O'Roak, a geneticist at Oregon Health and Science University who led the work, told the Times. The discovery is "of growing concern" because clinical trials in South Africa have indicated that the current COVID-19 vaccines could be less effective against the mutation. However, Pfizer and Moderna have already begun testing new versions of their vaccines against variants.

Pfizer’s Sordid Vaccine Sales Practices in Latin America Could Be a Big Boon for China and Russia Vaccine politics could end up nudging countries in the region even deeper into China’s orbit. As vaccines fail to materialise in many countries, doctors turn to cheap, widely available off-patent drugs such as Ivermectin.It is a time-honoured custom of business that manufacturers provide certain basic guarantees to prospective buyers about their product’s quality and safety. But U.S. pharma giant Pfizer wants to turn this on its head as it sells its experimental mRNA vaccine to desperate governments around the world. For Pfizer, it’s the buyer — not the seller — that should provide all of the guarantees. And that includes countries putting up sovereign assets, such as federal bank reserves, embassy buildings and military bases, as insurance against the cost of any future legal cases involving Pfizer BioNTech’s vaccine, reports the Bureau of International Journalism (TBIJ):In the case of one country, demands made by the pharmaceutical giant led to a three-month delay in a vaccine deal being agreed. For Argentina and Brazil, no national deals were agreed at all. Any hold-up in countries receiving vaccines means more people contracting Covid-19 and potentially dying.Officials from Argentina and the other Latin American country, which cannot be named as it has signed a confidentiality agreement with Pfizer, said the company’s negotiators demanded additional indemnity against any civil claims citizens might file if they experienced adverse effects after being inoculated. In Argentina and Brazil, Pfizer asked for sovereign assets to be put up as collateral for any future legal costs.One official who was present in the unnamed country’s negotiations described Pfizer’s demands as “high-level bullying” and said the government felt like it was being “held to ransom” in order to access life-saving vaccines.Campaigners are already warning of a “vaccine apartheid” in which rich Western countries may be inoculated years before poorer regions. Now, legal experts have raised concerns that Pfizer’s demands amount to an abuse of power.“Pharmaceutical companies shouldn’t be using their power to limit life-saving vaccines in low- and middle-income countries,” said Professor Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization’s Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “[This] seems to be exactly what they’re doing.”

 It's in America's best interest to lead global COVID-19 vaccine distribution -- Although we now have the tools we need to end the coronavirus pandemic — the COVID-19 vaccines that have been authorized and put to use, along with social distancing, masking, and other public health guidelines — we are now facing the growing threat of new COVID-19 variants. Here in the U.S., the South African variant of COVID-19 has been detected in multiple states, and in New Jersey, one person who hadcontracted the UK COVID-19 variant has already tragically passed away. We know that the more this virus continues to spread unchecked throughout the world, the more opportunities there will be for it to mutate into new strains — strains that have the potential to be more infectious, more deadly, and more resistant to existing vaccines.That’s why our humanitarian interest in ending the global pandemic — averting hundreds of thousands of needless deaths in poorer countries and ending the global economic calamity that is on track to push 170 million more people in the developing world into poverty — now aligns exactly with our self-interest.As we work here in the United States to get this virus under control and ramp up vaccine distribution in every state and every community — and especially expand access for Black and Brown communities who have been hardest hit by the virus — we also need to lead a cooperative, global effort to make more vaccines available everywhere. Doing that means making more vaccines. While wealthy countries have claimed the vast majority of COVID-19 vaccines currently available, many low-income countries have been unable to reserve enough doses to even cover the most vulnerable portions of their population in the near future. Despite important efforts to ensure some vaccines are made available for poorer countries, on our present trajectory it may take four years for everyone to get vaccinated, with the poor last in line. So rather than focusing only on how to allocate a limited supply of vaccines, we need to think about how the United States can spearhead an effort to produce as much as the world needs, as fast as possible. The U.S. government, under the leadership of President Biden, has authority under existing law to do things that will dramatically ramp up global vaccine access.

Japan urges China to waive anal swab virus test - The Japanese government has asked China not to conduct coronavirus tests using anal swabs on Japanese people visiting the country. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu told reporters on Monday that the government had made the request to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Beijing city authorities. Kato said China is carrying out such tests on people in quarantine and some of those who enter the country. He explained that the Japanese Embassy in Beijing has been contacted by Japanese nationals who said they had to undergo the procedure and suffered significant psychological strain. Kato said Chinese officials have not responded to Japan's request and that the government will continue to urge the change. He also said the government doesn't know how many Japanese have undergone this type of test. He added that it has not been confirmed whether other countries conduct such tests. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters on Monday that China is adjusting its preventive measures from a scientific viewpoint, depending on the infection situation. Wang did not mention whether authorities will waive the procedure. Chinese media quote experts as saying that samples taken from infected people by anal swabs remain positive longer than those taken by nasal and throat swabs, which helps prevent officials from overlooking carriers of the virus.

China Mandates Anal Swab COVID Tests For All Visitors, Despite "Psychological Pain" --Amid two international relation debacles:

• 1) US diplomats were forced (China has denied forcing them) to undergo an anal test for COVID-19in order to enter the country.
• 2) Tokyo has asked Beijing to stop performing COVID-19 anal swabs on its citizens after complaints that the procedure causes “psychological pain.”

Chinese officials have decided to make the humiliating anal swab tests for the coronavirus mandatory for almost all international arrivals.Chinese health experts claim the anal swab is much more accurate than a nasal cavity or cheek swab and can avoid 'false negatives' which has been a trend with the more common tests. Chinese officials have recently identified the anal swab as the #2 (no pun intended) most prominent COVID test in the country. "Chinese citizens are clenching up at an invasive new form of COVID-19 testing in the country: anal swabs," one international report noted.It's yet unclear just how many American diplomats were subject to the "probe".As BBC describes, "Anal swabs involve inserting a cotton swab 3-5cm (1.2-2.0 inches) into the anus and gently rotating it."

 100,000 Spanish dead in pandemic: PSOE-Podemos regime ends restrictions - Over 100,000 people have died in Spain as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), an official state agency. The INE reports that in the year between 9 February 2020 and 13 February 2021, there were a total of 471,447 deaths in Spain, 103,512 more than in the same period the previous year. February 13 also marked a year since the first officially recognised coronavirus death in Spain, that of a 69-year-old man from the town of L’Eliana, Valencia, recently returned from a trip to Nepal. The INE figures back up findings by Spain’s funerary services, which report that between 14 March 2020—when Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declared a state of alarm—and 19 January 2021, 119,113 lives were lost as a result of the pandemic. Juan Antonio Alguacil, a registered undertaker and member of the US National Funeral Directors Association announced the findings, declaring, “staff organisations of civil registries obtained this figure after determining that [in this period] an average of 383 people were registered every day who had died from coronavirus.” Alguacil also denounced the PSOE-Podemos government for presenting a falsified death toll well below the figures he was announcing: “These figures exceed all the [official] calculations and, now more than ever, this information transparency is necessary.” The numbers “do not square and are not going to square” with the government’s figures, Alguacil stated, “because it is clear that they do not want us to know the real death toll.” Alguacil added, “The explanation for this is clear: all those in charge are a disgrace. Ultimately, I have come to think that we will never know the total death figures because right from the very first minute they were lying, they weren’t telling the truth, they were hiding things.” While news sites such as El País, El Mundo and El Diario were silent on the INE findings and Alguacil’s comment, instead parroting figures from the PSOE-Podemos government, the INE’s findings of over 100,000 deaths from the pandemic were widely reported in other press outlets. On 13 February, the date on which the INE figures are based, the government’s Spanish death count was only 64,747, almost 40,000 less than the INE’s excess mortality estimate. As of last Friday, this had risen to 68,813, still far below these other figures. An average of 291 coronavirus deaths were reported by the government every day last week and nearly 8,000 daily infections, bringing the total number of cases to well over 3 million. The Spanish Health Ministry only includes deaths in its official tally if the victim tested positive for the coronavirus, even though very few COVID-19 tests were carried out in the first wave of the pandemic last spring, and the government’s testing program remains inadequate today.10:06 AM

Brazil worsening pandemic: a threat to humanity - After crossing the grim milestone of 250,000 deaths and 10 million COVID-19 cases last week, Brazil has faced a sharp escalation of the pandemic in recent days. This week, the country has seen two record death tolls in a row, with a total of 1,726 on Tuesday, and 1,840 on Wednesday. As another 1,699 deaths were registered on Thursday, the death toll in Brazil reached 260,970. The country also recorded the highest number of new infections in the world on Wednesday, 74,376 in total, which was even larger on Thursday, surpassing 75,000. As Brazil rapidly emerges as the world epicenter of the pandemic, the country’s ruling class and all its political parties are clashing ever more directly with the scientific prescriptions for combating the coronavirus. Major Brazilian scientific authorities point to the catastrophic risks posed by the rampant growth of the virus in Brazil, not only to the country’s population, but to all of humanity. In an article published by in the Guardian on Wednesday, neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis described Brazil as an “open-air laboratory for the virus to proliferate and eventually create more lethal mutations.” He added: “This is about the world. It’s global.” This “open-air laboratory” for the anti-scientific policy of herd immunity has already been responsible for the creation of a dangerous mutation of the coronavirus in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. A new study published in the scientific journal The Lancet suggests that this Brazilian variant, known as P.1, “might escape from neutralizing antibodies induced by an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine,” as is the case with the main vaccine being distributed in Brazil, Coronavac. The study also indicates that the new strain is “able to escape from responses generated by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and thus, reinfection may be plausible.” In another interview, conducted by El País just hours before the report of Wednesday’s record deaths, Nicolelis made a serious warning: “The possibility of crossing 2,000 daily deaths in the coming days is absolutely real. The possibility of crossing 3,000 deaths daily in the next few weeks is now real. If you have 2,000 deaths per day in 90 days, or 3,000 deaths in 90 days, we are talking about 180,000 to 270,000 people killed in three months. We would double the number of deaths. That’s already a genocide, it’s just that no one has used the term yet.” Faced with this prognosis, Nicolelis argues that “we need to enact lockdowns of at least 21 days and pay financial aid so that people stay home.” The most open enemy of this policy is Brazil’s fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro, who since May of last year has decreed a “war on lockdowns.” Responding to the soaring death toll of the last week, Bolsonaro denounced the spread of “panic” over the pandemic. “The problem is there, we are sorry. But you cannot live in panic,” he told his supporters and the far-right press on Wednesday. “As far as I’m concerned, we will never have a lockdown. Never,” he added. Expressing his intention to smash any policy of social isolation that is implemented in Brazil, the president tweeted on Thursday: “ESSENTIAL ACTIVITY IS EVERYTHING NECESSARY FOR A HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD TO BRING BREAD INSIDE HIS HOME!” The true meaning of this grotesque statement is: “essential activity is everything necessary for the financial oligarchy to pour exorbitant profits into their accounts!” Although Bolsonaro expresses it most nakedly, the policy of social murder is being widely adopted by governments all over Brazil. In an article entitled “Catarinenses are being sent to ‘death row’ in the name of the economy,” journalist Dagmara Spautz of NSC Total compared the situation in Santa Catarina, one of the most severe in the country, to the health care collapse in Bergamo, Italy, in March of last year: “There are no army trucks carrying our dead. But we have an army of people circulating from Monday to Friday, with few restrictions and high risk of infection. Meanwhile, the waiting line for ICU beds has already reached 260 people. ...

Brazilian Covid variant in Scotland: Three Scots test positive for mutant strand ** THREE cases of the Brazil variant of Covid-19 have been detected in Scotland. Following a return to north-east Scotland from the South American country, three Scots tested positive for the mutant strain of coronavirus. All three have been self-isolating since their return to Scotland. The tests were completed in early February and passed to the UK's advanced sequencing capabilities programme - which detected this new variant. Due to the potential concerns around this variant, other passengers on the flight used by the three individuals from London to Aberdeen are being contacted. These three cases are not connected to three cases also identified in England. Health protection teams, including local clinicians, have assessed each case and their contacts and are arranging protective measures for this small number of potentially exposed individuals. To provide an extra layer of safety, teams are ensuring people who could have been infected by these first line contacts are also isolated and tested. This is to ensure all possible precautions are taken as experts learn more about this particular variant. Clinical and trial data continues to be assessed to examine how the new variant may respond to current Covid-19 vaccines. Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said: "The identification of this new variant is a concern but we are taking every possible precaution. "We have identified these cases thanks to our use of advanced sequencing capabilities which means we are finding more variants and mutations than many other countries and are therefore able to take action quickly. "This new variant demonstrates how serious Covid is and reinforces the need to minimise the spread of the virus. "We would encourage everyone across the country to adhere to the necessary public health restrictions by staying at home except for essential purposes as this is the single best way of staying safe and stopping the spread of this virus. "It is now also illegal for anyone to travel to or from Scotland unless it is for an essential reason.

Study of Aggressive Covid-19 Strain in Brazil Suggests Limits of China Vaccine – WSJ —As an an aggressive coronavirus strain from the Amazon ravages Brazil, a preliminary study has provided the first evidence that the country’s principal vaccine, China’s CoronaVac, might not be as effective against it. The small-scale study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, comes as doctors warn of a humanitarian catastrophe in Brazil over coming weeks, with surging deaths as the disease overwhelms hospitals across the country. Researchers from Brazil, the U.K., and the U.S., found that plasma from eight people vaccinated five months ago with CoronaVac “failed to efficiently neutralize” the new Amazonian strain, called P.1. The study didn’t show if CoronaVac can still stop people getting sick from the variant, one of the main goals of vaccination campaigns. While the study’s sample size was small and requires further testing, the fact that all eight samples produced the same result is a “notable phenomenon,” suggesting CoronaVac is less capable of thwarting infections of P.1 than of versions of the virus previously found in Brazil, said William de Souza, of the University of São Paulo in Ribeirão Prêto, one the study’s authors. Sinovac, the Chinese firm that produces CoronaVac, didn’t respond to requests for comment. In an interview with state-backed broadcaster CGTN that Sinovac released this week, Chief Executive Officer Yin Weidong said that, if necessary, it would take less time to develop a vaccine for the variants than from scratch.

Israel fears South African COVID strain spreading beyond control - Israeli efforts to stop the spread of the South African variant of the coronavirus, which included the shut down of Ben-Gurion International Airport last month, have brought little results, data shows.  Closing Israel's borders did not stop this coronavirus strain from entering: Dozens are being infected each day. Israel vaccine data shows it's the only variant with less inoculation effectiveness.Over 450 cases of the infection have been diagnosed so far in Israel, and health professionals estimate that dozens more are being infected each day. The Health Ministry's committees on vaccinations and the pandemic said two weeks ago that the variant was spreading beyond control.The focus on variants was supposed to prevent a scenario in which Israel would be forced to deal with a more infectious and virulent strain of the coronavirus that would turn out to be less sensitive to the Pfizer vaccine. But ministry experts had cautioned that shutting the airport woult not prevent the strain from reaching the country.  Israel had already missed out on stopping the entry of the British variant, which is responsible for 90 percent of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. Now the South African variant has been identified in hundreds of patients despite airport measures and isolating passengers in hotels.

Speedy Variants Power Virus Surge Sweeping Europe (AP) — The virus swept through a nursery school and an adjacent elementary school in the Milan suburb of Bollate with amazing speed. In a matter of just days, 45 children and 14 staff members had tested positive. Genetic analysis confirmed what officials already suspected: The highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in England was racing through the community, a densely packed city of nearly 40,000 with a chemical plant and Pirelli bicycle tire factory a 15-minute drive from the heart of Milan. “This is the demonstration that the virus has a sort of intelligence, even if it is a single-cell organism. We can put up all the barriers in the world and imagine that they work, but in the end, it adapts and penetrates them,’’ lamented Bollate Mayor Francesco Vassallo. Bollate was the first city in Lombardy, the northern region that has been the epicenter in each of Italy’s three surges, to be sealed off from neighbors because of mutant versions that the World Health Organization says are now powering another uptick in infections across Europe. The variants also include versions first identified in South Africa and Brazil. Europe recorded 1 million new COVID-19 cases last week, an increase of 9% from the previous week and a reversal that ended a six-week decline, WHO said Thursday. “The spread of the variants is driving the increase, but ... also the opening of society, when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner.” The so-called U.K. variant is spreading significantly in 27 European countries monitored by WHO and is dominant in at least 10 by the agency's count: Britain, Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Israel, Spain and Portugal. It is up to 50% more transmissible than the virus that surged last spring and again in the fall, making it more adept at thwarting measures that were previously effective, WHO experts warned. In Lombardy, which bore the brunt of Italy’s spring surge, intensive care wards are again filling up as more than two-thirds of new positive tests are of the UK variant, health officials said this week. After putting two provinces and some 50 towns on a modified lockdown, Lombardy's regional governor announced tightened restrictions on Friday and closed classrooms for all age groups. Cases in Milan schools alone surged 33% in a week, the head of the provincial health system said. The situation is dire in the Czech Republic, which registered a record-breaking total of nearly 8,500 patients in the hospital with COVID-19 this week. Poland is opening temporary hospitals and imposing a partial lockdown as the variant has grown from 10% of all infections in February to 25% now. Kluge cited Britain’s experience as cause for optimism, noting that well-considered restrictions and the introduction of the vaccine have helped tamp down the variants there and in Israel. The vaccine rollout in the European Union, by comparison, is lagging, mostly because of supply problems.

Coronavirus latest news: UK most likely place in the world for mutant coronavirus variant, says health minister Britain is the most likely place in the world where a mutant strain of the coronavirus will occur due to the prevailing conditions, a health minister has said.Giving the stark assessment at Westminster, Tory frontbencher Lord Bethell said "if there's one place in the world where a mutant variation is likely to happen it will be in an area where you have a high infection rate and a large amount of suppression of the virus by either a lockdown or a vaccine programme."If you look around the world that country is most likely to be Britain and we must be on the balls of our feet to be prepared for unhelpful news on that front," he said.The Conservative peer made his comments as a top scientist warned the risk of a dangerous new variant against which there was no defence was "eventually likely to be inevitable"."We are not post-vaccine. We are at best mid-vaccine - 20 million people is an enormous achievement but there is a hell of along way to go," the minister added.​​Here's a run down of the day's main stories...

• A further 242 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Thursday, bringing the UK total to 124,025.
• Separate figures – tracking fatalities where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate – suggest a higher total of 145,000.
• Another 6,573 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus are recorded in the UK, taking the country's total to more than 4.2 million.
• A total of 20,982,571 people have now received their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine – and 963,862 have had their second jab.
• Around one in five people aged 16 to 64 in England are likely to have had their first dose of Covid-19 vaccine, NHS England figures suggest.
• Police have arrested three men on suspicion of theft after “boxloads” of coronavirus tests destined for schools were stolen from a lorry.
• The EU’s vaccination campaign should be able to inoculate “all those who need” by the end of summer or perhaps sooner, an official said.
• Italy will administer a single vaccine dose to those recently recovered from Covid-19, a move apparently aimed at saving shots amid a stuttering EU inoculation rollout.
• Iraq has signed an agreement with Russia to import 1 million doses of the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, Iraq’s oil ministry said.
• South African police have seized hundreds of fake Covid-19 vaccines and arrested four suspects in connection with the haul, Interpol said.

Jokowi: 4.6 Million Doses of AstraZeneca Vaccine Will Land This Month - - President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo announced that the Covid-19 vaccine made by AstraZeneca will soon arrive in Indonesia this March 2021, totaling 4.6 million doses of ready-to-use vaccines. “Inshallah, there will be another 4.6 million doses of ready-to-use vaccine from AstraZeneca this March. This means, [the national] vaccination can be accelerated,” said the President on Thursday evening, March 4, 2021. Indonesia had already secured 38 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. A total of 3 million doses were ready-to-use vaccines, and 35 million in the form of bulk raw materials that were processed by state pharmacy PT Bio Farma. Jokowi hoped that the arrival of this vaccine will speed up the national target to inoculate 60-70 percent of the population or as many as 181.5 million people. Thus, the country requires 364 million doses to achieve the target. Earlier reported, the upcoming arrival of the AstraZeneca vaccine was carried out through multilateral cooperation with Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization (GAVI)-Covax Facility in the first quarter of this year. The Health Ministry’s spokesperson Siti Nadia Tarmizi stated on Sunday, January 31, that the AstraZeneca vaccine was safe for use on elderlies aged over 60 years. 

 India administers over 17 million vaccines to date - India has reported 17,407 new covid-19 infections in the last 24 hours, even as 1,093,954 vaccine doses were given till 7pm on Thursday, the 47th day of the nationwide covid-19 vaccination. India has so far administered over 17.7 million covid-19 vaccine doses through 3,23,064 sessions. India’s active caseload was at 11,171,166, or 1.55% of total positive cases. At least 89 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours. Six states account for 85% of the cases, the number of patients identified with The surge in the mutant virus cases has been a cause of concern for health authorities amid the resurgence in daily case count after India saw daily infections decline to around 7,000 in end-January. A new modelling study published in the American Association for the Advancement of Science said the UK variant, which emerged in south-east England in November, is more transmissible than pre-existing variants. The authors warned that it will lead to large resurgences of covid-19 cases. “Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020," it said. As on 15 February, the new strain accounted for 95% of new infections in the UK and has spread across at least 82 countries, including India. Public health experts expressed concern over the mutant strains and the recent surge in covid cases despite India rolling out the nationwide vaccination programme. “The coronavirus is mutating and spreading in the population because of reasons such as pressure of drugs, vaccines, immune-compromised hosts. These mutations sometimes become significant mutations in a particular country and with the movement of population these mutations also move as in the case of covid-19 as well. The main mutations that cropped up include those from the UK, South Africa, and Brazil. They’ve become endemic in their own countries and they’ve all shown different characteristics," said professor N.K. Ganguly, president, Jawaharlal Institute of Post Graduate Medical Education and Research, and former director general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ganguly said recently mutant strains were also identified in the US, the New York and California variants, but that the UK mutant has higher transmissibility, while the one from South Africa is more virulent. “They’re also creating a lot of challenges. For example, the US Food and Drug Administration brought out two documents a few days ago on how these mutations will affect diagnostics, surveillance, drugs, and vaccine programme. They will necessitate a shift in some of the practices being observed currently," said Ganguly.

A behind-the-scenes look at why Canada delayed 2nd doses of COVID-19 vaccines -- Danuta Skowronski was poring over Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine data on a Friday night in mid-December when she had an "aha!" moment. The epidemiology lead at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control realized she could actually "correct" the data Pfizer had submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on the effectiveness of just one dose of its vaccine. In clinical trials, Pfizer couldn't accurately determine the efficacy of a single shot because participants had already received their second dose after three weeks, and there was no comparative one-dose study done. Pfizer reported an efficacy of 52 per cent for one shot, compared to the more commonly cited 95 per cent after the second. But Skowronski, who has been working on vaccine effectiveness analyses for more than 15 years, realized the company had included in its analysis the two-week time period immediately after vaccination — before the body's immune response typically kicks in. She told CBC News vaccines are never expected to protect "instantaneously," and that there is always a "grace period" of a couple of weeks that factors into vaccine effectiveness. "What we found was that they were underestimating the efficacy of the first dose, and rather than the efficacy being 52 per cent, it was actually 92 per cent, " she said. "For us, that was a game changer." The finding led the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) to change the recommended time between doses of COVID-19 vaccines from three weeks to an unprecedented four months. B.C. announced it would be delaying second doses earlier this week. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador quickly followed suit. Canada is now an outlier in the global vaccination rollout. No other country in the world has delayed second doses up to four months, and there is no evidence yet on the long-term effect it could have on immunity to COVID-19.  NACI says if second doses are stretched to four months across the country starting this month, close to 80 per cent of Canadians over 16 could get at least one shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine by the end of June.But Canada's chief science adviser, Mona Nemer, says the decision to delay doses amounted to a "population level experiment.""The comment from the chief science adviser was most unfortunate," said Skowronski. "It did not reflect the careful risk-benefit analysis that went into this decision, and frankly, that is a science and an art to be able to do that."

Western Butterflies Disappearing Due to Warmer Fall Seasons - A new study published in Science on Thursday looked at three different data sets that cover the last 40 years of butterfly populations across more than 70 locations in the Western U.S. They found that butterfly populations had fallen by 1.6 percent per year, and that this was linked to warmer weather during the fall."That so many of our butterflies are declining is very alarming," Dr. Tara Cornelisse, an entomologist and senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), said in response to the findings. "These declines are a wake-up call that we need to dramatically reduce greenhouse gases to save these beautiful and beloved butterflies, as well as our very way of life."In recent years, scientists have raised the alarm about a worldwide decline in insects. A study published last spring found that the number of land-based insects was falling by about nine percent per decade. However, it has been difficult to tease out the causes of this decline, since factors like land-use change, pesticide use and climate shifts may all contribute, Gizmodo's Earther pointed out.To investigate the role of climate change, the researchers chose to focus on the Western U.S. because it has seen general warming and drying trends covering a wide variety of ecosystems and land uses. They looked at 450 species in 11 states, from Washington to California to New Mexico to Montana, and compared population data with temperature trends.They found that butterfly populations actually increased with summer temperatures, probably because the warmth meant more nectar and larval bugs as food for butterflies and caterpillars. However, the warmer autumns caused their populations to fall again, likely because plants cannot survive the extended warmth and the population of predators increases. Because the declines occurred in a variety of ecosystems, including protected areas that are less impacted by pesticides, the researchers thought climate change was to blame. "Out there, removed from those factors, we see a shifting climate as the main driver of declining butterfly numbers," University of Texas in Reno biologist and lead study author Matthew Forister told Earther in an email.

 Is Your Avocado Toast and Almond Milk Harming Bees? Maybe --Turns out, bee labor is required to produce most avocados and almonds in the U.S.Honeybees pollinate most fruits and vegetables in the country, The Washington Post reported. With native bee populations in sharp decline, there aren't enough of them to complete the job naturally or efficiently, The Post added.Enter migratory beekeeping. Farmers truck beehives full of European honeybees across the country and into their fields so that the insects can pollinate crops during important fertile periods, The Post reported. Without this practice, farmers would lose about one-third of their crops, including broccoli, blueberries, cherries, apples, melons and lettuce, according to The Post.The practice is so widespread that Tracy Reiman, a representative for PETA, said, "Average shoppers can't avoid produce that involves migratory beekeeping, any more than they can avoid driving on asphalt," Vegan Life reported.In 2013, Scientific American estimated that California's booming almond industry used 31 to 80 billion migrant honeybees a year in order to achieve maximum pollination during almond trees' two-week bloom. California produces up to 80 percent of all the world's almonds, Scientific American noted, and could not achieve such scale without migratory beekeeping.Report Advertisement  According to From the Grapevine, American avocados also fully depend on bees' pollination to produce fruit, so farmers have turned to migratory beekeeping as well to fill the void left by wild populations. U.S. farmers have become reliant upon the practice, but migratory beekeeping has been called exploitative and harmful to bees. CNN reported that commercial beekeeping may injure or kill bees and that transporting them to pollinate crops appears to negatively affect their health and lifespan. Because the honeybees are forced to gather pollen and nectar from a single, monoculture crop — the one they've been brought in to pollinate — they are deprived of their normal diet, which is more diverse and nourishing as it's comprised of a variety of pollens and nectars, Scientific American reported.Scientific American added how getting shuttled from crop to crop and field to field across the country boomerangs the bees between feast and famine, especially once the blooms they were brought in to fertilize end.Plus, the artificial mass influx of bees guarantees spreading viruses, mites and fungi between the insects as they collide in midair and crawl over each other in their hives, Scientific American reported. According to CNN, some researchers argue that this explains why so many bees die each winter, and even why entire hives suddenly die off in a phenomenon called colony collapse disorder.  Adding pesticides to the picture, bees don't stand a chance.

 Total Amount of Global Food Waste Remains Unclear, New UN Report Reveals - According to a global food waste index released on Thursday, some 931 million tons of food waste were generated across the world in 2019. The report, published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), and UK charity WRAP, equates that to 17% of all food available to consumers.At 61%, the majority was created in households. The retail and food service sectors performed better, generating 13% and 26% respectively.The index does not factor in food loss, which differs from food waste in that it occurs during production, storage or processing and never reaches the consumer."If we want to get serious about tackling climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste, businesses, governments and citizens around the world have to do their part to reduce food waste." UNEP Executive Director Inger Anderson said in a press release.Six years after the UN agreed to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), an ambitious set of targets addressing global inequality and climate change, the report focuses attention on halving per capita global food waste by 2030. With that deadline looming, the document's 2019 data underscores the scale of the challenge in a world that saw at least 690 million people affected by hunger in 2019. And that figure is predicted to rise in the wake of the global pandemic. One key finding points to broadly similar quantities of household food waste — which includes inedible parts such as bones and peel — in high-, upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries. The global average for lower-middle-income countries such as Pakistan and Vietnam was 91 kilograms (200 pounds) per person, as opposed to 76 kilograms in middle-income countries and 79 kilograms in high-income countries such as Ireland and the United States.This breaks with the narrative that food waste is an issue in high-income countries while food loss is more prevalent in lower income states.

Locust plague persists in Ethiopia, threatening crops and livelihood - Crops and livelihoods in Ethiopia are at high risk as locust plague persists in the country, with the highest number of swarms reported in the northern and central region. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), immature swarms are currently affecting areas in Oromia and SNNP, including southern areas of the Rift Valley.The ongoing locust crisis in Ethiopia is threatening the country's crops and livelihood, CARE Ethiopia reported, warning that high rains in March are likely to worsen the situation."Ethiopia is currently facing a triple threat crisis with locusts, flooding from last year, and COVID-19," said CARE Ethiopia country director, Esther Watts."These latest swarms are a real worry and added stress on an already struggling population suffering from high levels of hunger, malnutrition, and loss of livelihoods across many areas.""Heavy rains and mild winters then contribute to the survival of the large swarms that decimate food security and sources of income," she noted.In a statement, Watts said that the organization is "particularly worried about the impact the loss of crops and livelihoods will have on women and girls," as forced early marriage practices often increase during times of economic crisis.The director added that CARE is working in the affected areas of Hararghe and northern Amhara, with livelihoods and resilience programs also covering locust response. More than 2 700 families are being provided with financial support for livelihood recovery."For the near future, programming in Tigray will focus on restoring the disrupted agricultural input supply by supporting service providers, such as agro-dealers, poultry farmers, and animal feed producers, so that farmers are prepared for the coming planting season, as well as contributing to the humanitarian response."Currently, the highest number of swarms have been reported in northern and central Ethiopia in a total number of 26 zones. According to FAO, the affected areas are East Harerghe, Arsi, Borena, and several sites in SNN, including South Omo, Konso, and southern areas of the Rift Valley where more swarms were reported.

 Sounds of Silence: The Extinction Crisis Is Taking Away the Earth's Music - In the past 50 years, America's bird populations have fallen by a third, and worldwide the average mammal population has dropped 60%, writes acclaimed environmental philosopher and nature writer Kathleen Dean Moore in her new collection of essays, Earth's Wild Music: Celebrating and Defending the Songs of the Natural World.And with all that loss comes an unsettling silence."Unless the world acts to stop extinctions, I will write my last nature essay on a planet that is less than half as song-graced and life-drenched as the one where I began to write," she explains in the book's preface. "My grandchildren will tear out half the pages in their field guides. They won't need them."Her book uses sound as a reference point to better understand what we stand to lose as extinction rates climb higher. But the essays are also a celebration of the natural world's chorus and the joy of learning to hear what's still there.The essays are also being set to music in a series for Oregon State's Spring Creek Project that will feature 20 4-minute-long concerts combining live musical performance with excerpts from Earth's Wild Music."I've never been so excited about a project in my life," Moore tells us. "It combines everything I care about with the cause that I believe in more than anything else."The Revelator spoke to Moore about the moral stakes of our environmental crisis, what it's like to find a truly quiet place to listen, and what we lose as wild songs disappear.

 I Know Why the Caged Songbird Goes Extinct -- The straw-headed bulbul doesn't look like much.  It's less than a foot in length, with subdued brown-and-gold plumage, a black beak and beady red eyes. If you saw one sitting on a branch in front of you, you might not give it a second glance. But this Southeast Asian native stands out in one notable way: It sings like an angel. "It's arguably the most beautiful song of any bird," says Chris Shepherd, executive director of Monitor Conservation Research Society and an expert on Asian songbirds. "It's amazing," he adds.  The bird's beautiful voice serves a vital ecological purpose: Males use it to attract mates. But the song has also come with a terrible modern cost. Humans have come to value the bulbul's calls so much that they've collected the birds from almost every inch of their habitat. Captured birds, quickly caged, have been shipped to markets throughout Southeast Asia. Due to this overwhelming commercial demand, the species has disappeared from most of its range and is now critically endangered. Only a few pocket populations continue to hang on. And the straw-headed bulbul is far from alone in this decline. Practically every songbird species in Southeast Asia faces a similar predicament. Many birds face the very real risk of imminent extinction, leaving some forests in the region eerily silent.  Recent research finds that several songbirds have become perilously close to vanishing — if they haven't been lost already.

Cuttlefish Found Capable of Delayed Gratification, a First for Invertebrates ---Cuttlefish, marine invertebrates related to squids and octopuses, can pass the so-called "marshmallow test," an experiment designed to test whether human children have the self-control to wait for a better reward. To test the mechanisms behind self control, children were given a choice between having one marshmallow, or another treat, now or waiting 15 to 20 minutes to get two.  The study, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B Thursday, puts cuttlefish in the ranks of larger-brained vertebrates like great apes, parrots and corvids in terms of how long they can delay gratification and makes them the first invertebrates to demonstrate self control, Live Science reported."Self-control is thought to be the cornerstone of intelligence, as it is an important prerequisite for complex decision-making and planning for the future,"   For cuttlefish, the reward had to be modified slightly. Instead of sugary sweets, the cuttlefish had a choice between a preferred meal like grass shrimp or king prawn or a less preferred meal like Asian shore crab, Live Science explained. They were presented with two drawers. One that opened immediately with the less preferred meal and one that opened after a delay with the preferred meal. If they chose the first option, the second snack would disappear. "Cuttlefish in the present study were all able to wait for the better reward and tolerated delays for up to 50-130 seconds, which is comparable to what we see in large-brained vertebrates such as chimpanzees, crows and parrots," Schnell told the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL), where the research was conducted.  The researchers then also tested the cuttlefish for intelligence, and found that the cuttlefish who were able to wait longer for their favorite foods also did better on a learning test. This marks the first time that intelligence and self-control have been linked in an animal other than humans or chimpanzees.

HIGH AND DRY | Colorado in Drought: Part 1, The Past | Colorado Springs News | gazette.com In the first part of our series, we explore the history of The Dry, a Black community in southeast Colorado undone by drought. Check back Wednesday, March 3, 2021 for part 2. (Video by Skyler Ballard)

High and Dry: Colorado in Drought — Video - State's residents have coped with extreme dryness for generations

High and Dry: Colorado in Drought — Video - 5th generation El Paso County rancher hit with disaster

 California Faces ‘Critically Dry Year' --California faces another "critically dry year" according to state officials, and a destructive wildfire season looms on its horizon. But in a state that welcomes innovation, water efficacy approaches and droughtmanagement could replenish California, increasingly threatened by the climate's new extremes.The Sierra Nevada snowpack supplies the state with 30 percent of its water supply. But on Tuesday, California's Department of Water Resources recorded a snow depth of 56 inches and water content of 21 inches at Phillips Station – 61 percent of the average for March 2 and 54 percent of the average for April 1, when it's at its maximum, the Los Angeles Times reported.The state's largest reservoirs – responsible for maintaining the state's water supply throughout the year – also experienced low levels this year, storing only about 38 percent and 68 percent of their capacity, according toThe Guardian."With below-average precipitation across the state, California's reservoirs are starting to see the impacts of a second consecutive dry year," said Sean de Guzman, the department's chief of snow surveys and water supply forecasting, according to The Guardian.These effects are being felt across the state. During the city's wettest months of December, January and February, L.A. received just 2.44 inches of the expected 3.12 inches of rain, the Los Angeles Times reported. At the same time Northern California remains in one of the worst two-year rain deficient since the Gold Rush of 1849 – its precipitation at only 30 percent to 70 percent of a normal year, The Guardian reported.Three to five winter storms supply California's snowpack and reservoirs with water. But the state's dependency on these few winter storms makes it especially vulnerable when they occur less frequently, The Guardian reported."In years where you miss out on one or two of those, you're probably going to struggle to get close to normal," John Abatzoglou, a climatology researcher at the University of California, Merced, told The Guardian, who added that the state is increasingly living in extremes – either experiencing abnormally heavy rain or no rain at all. "We're banking on a miracle March or awesome April to dig out of this hole... In all likelihood, we're going to end the water year with another dry year."The dry winter not only invites a destructive wildfire season but comes with a heavy price tag for the state's agricultural industry. Between 2012-2016, for example, the state experienced a drought that cost $2.7 billion in losses for the industry, and more than 18,000 lost jobs, The Guardian reported. This drought also killed about 102 million forest trees.

Fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke more harmful than pollution from other sources - Researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego examining 14 years of hospital admissions data conclude that the fine particles in wildfire smoke can be several times more harmful to human respiratory health than particulate matter from other sources such as car exhaust. While this distinction has been previously identified in laboratory experiments, the new study confirms it at the population level. This new research work, focused on Southern California, reveals the risks of tiny airborne particles with diameters of up to 2.5 microns, about one-twentieth that of a human hair. These particles - termed PM2.5 - are the main component of wildfire smoke and can penetrate the human respiratory tract, enter the bloodstream and impair vital organs. The study appears March 5 in the journal Nature Communications by researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, et al. To isolate wildfire-produced PM2.5 from other sources of particulate pollution, the researchers defined exposure to wildfire PM2.5 as exposure to strong Santa Ana winds with fire upwind. A second measure of exposure involved smoke plume data from NOAA's Hazard Mapping System. A 10 microgram-per-cubic meter increase in PM2.5 attributed to sources other than wildfire smoke was estimated to increase respiratory hospital admissions by 1 percent. The same increase, when attributed to wildfire smoke, caused between a 1.3 to 10 percent increase in respiratory admissions.As of now, there is not a consensus as to why wildfire PM2.5 is more harmful to humans than other sources of particulate pollution. If PM2.5 from wildfires is more dangerous to human lungs than that of ambient air pollution, the threshold for what are considered safe levels of PM2.5 should reflect the source of the particles, especially during the expanding wildfire season.

Kentucky Experiences Historic Flooding Following Record Rainfall - Kentucky is coping with historic flooding after a weekend of record-breaking rainfall, enduring water rescues, evacuations and emergency declarations.More than a dozen rainfall records were broken in the state on Sunday, CNN Meteorologist Michael Guy said. Many parts of Kentucky received two to four inches of rain in 72 hours, while a few received as much as 10 inches. The rainfall mixed with melting snow to produce major flooding."We expect this to be one of the largest flash-flooding events that we've had," Kentucky Emergency Management Director Michael Dossett said Monday during a press conference, CNN reported.Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear declared a statewide emergency while 29 counties and seven cities also issued emergency declarations."We are acting swiftly to ensure the safety and security of Kentucky families and to get the needed help to our communities," Beshear said in a statement, The Associated Press reported.Floodwaters filled downtowns and required water rescues. In the town of Beattyville, boats could be spotted on Main Street, LEX 18 reported.Lee County Judge/Executive Chuck Caudill said that water levels rose six to seven feet on most roads, prompting evacuations Sunday night. By Monday afternoon, there had been 25 evacuations and six major water rescues."We really had to do some serious lifesaving because they were literally walking out of houses with two to three feet of water in them," Caudill told LEX 18.In addition to the human rescues, a batch of COVID-19 vaccines were also evacuated from the Lee County Health Department in Beattyville after rain threatened the department's power supply, CNN reported.In Wolfe County, Kentucky, the Hazel Green Volunteer Fire Department said it rescued 15 people Sunday night, including a family of five who were trapped in their car, and were only spotted thanks to their cell phone light.Additionally, ninety-one patients were evacuated from Salyersville Nursing and Rehabilitation in Salyersville, Kentucky, Sunday night, according to The Weather Channel.The rain also caused flooding in West Virginia and Tennessee. In West Virginia, flooding and m udslides closed more than 100 roads, while rising waters trapped 11 people in a church in Cross Lanes. In Tennessee, four adults and one infant were rescued after a truck slid off a flooded bridge in Dekalb County.

Heavier Precipitation Is Straining U.S. Dams and Levees The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave America's infrastructure a C- grade in its quadrennial assessment issued March 3. ASCE gave the nation's flood control infrastructure – dams and levees – a D grade. This is a highly concerning assessment, given that climate change is increasingly stressing dams and levees as increased evaporation from the oceans drives heavier precipitation events.The group's 2021 report card gave the nation's 91,000-plus dams a D grade, jus as they had received in each of its assessments since the first one was issued in 1998. Drawing upon the latest data from the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, ASCE estimated the cost of rehabilitating all U.S. dams at $93.6 billion, of which $27.6 billion is needed for federal dams. Over half (56.4%) of U.S. dams are privately owned. The cost to rehabilitate deficient high-hazard-potential dams, whose failure would result in loss of life, is estimated at nearly $20 billion. Over 2,300 dams in the U.S. are in this category. The average age of America's dams is 57 years. The report identified one program that can help address existing funding needs – the High Hazard Potential Dam Rehabilitation Program authorized in the 2016 Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act. The goal of this program is to help fund the repair, removal, or rehabilitation of the nation's non-federal, high-hazard-potential dams. In federal fiscal year 2020, Congress appropriated $10 million for the program, less than 0.1% of the state dam safety group's needs estimate, and a quarter of the $40 million Congress had authorized for the program. A 2019 YaleEnvironment360 story by Jacques Leslie reported that "many people living on property that would be flooded if a dam fails are unaware of that possibility, in part because federal officials blocked public access to inundation maps after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. In recent years, some states have again made the maps available. California requires that prospective buyers be informed if a property is in an inundation zone, a practice that should be far more widespread." The 2021 ASCE report card recommended initiating a public awareness campaign that would alert residents of the location and condition of dams in their area.

 After nearly two weeks much of Jackson, Mississippi still without running water -Nearly half of the residents of Jackson, Mississippi have now been without water for nearly two weeks following the severe winter storm that froze pipes and burst water mains all over the city. The same storm knocked out power and water service for millions of people in Texas and impacted neighboring Louisiana. Tens of thousands of people living in Mississippi’s capital city have had no running water for drinking or washing clothes or indoor plumbing, and water distribution sites have been set up across the region. Hundreds of residents have crowd into long lines, either standing outside or waiting in their vehicles, in order to receive bottles and jugs of much needed water. Some people have even reported having to purchase bottled water for as much as $100.00 as the city’s crumbling infrastructure has resulted in massive demands and scarce resources. The poverty rate of Jackson is estimated to be around 26.9 percent. Many residents have lost work and income due to the pandemic and others have been forced out of work more recently due to the havoc caused by the winter storms. For most who have lost service, being able to afford bottled water is a significant challenge. For local chef Erika Williams, being forced to collect melting snow in order to flush the toilet, stand in line for hours with a bucket for water distribution, and paying exorbitant prices for bottled water has lead to real anger and frustration with the local government. “The thing that became frustrating was the tone of accountability just wasn’t there,” Williams told the Daily Beast. “There was no plan that we could see. The press conferences were redundant. If you don’t know when it’s coming back, what is being done to help us?” Indeed, ten days now since the first water outages, there is still no clear timetable from city officials for when safe running water will return. Many residents who have low water pressure are still under boil water advisories from over a week ago as the water that is running is not yet safe to ingest.

 Mississippi city reports progress toward ending water crisis /(Reuters) - A crisis that left thousands of residents of Mississippi’s capital without running water for weeks appears to be nearing an end, a local official said on Friday, as workers continue to restore service following paralyzing winter storms. Jackson, the Southern state’s largest city with a population of more than 160,000 people, again distributed non-potable water at four sites so people could flush their toilets. Residents must still boil any faucet water to kill any disease-causing organisms before using it. Charles Williams, Jackson’s public works director, told reporters that workers should be able to start sampling water in affected areas this weekend, a necessary step before the boil advisory can be lifted. “We’re pleased with our progress,” Williams said. “Positive progress - a lot better than we were on Monday.” Williams estimated that fewer than 5,000 of the city’s 43,000 water connections - most of which serve multiple households - remain dry. The problems stemmed from the same cold snap that wreaked havoc in Texas last month, shutting down that state’s power grid and leaving millions of people without heat in sub-freezing temperatures.

Severe flooding damages roads, hundreds of houses in northern Morocco - (videos) Heavy rains triggered severe flash flooding in the city of Tetouan in northern Morocco on Monday, March 1, 2021, leaving 275 houses damaged, as well as dozens of vehicles and infrastructure. The dramatic situation in Tetouan made rounds on social media. Roads and infrastructure were damaged, as well as around 275 houses and dozens of vehicles.According to local media, many routes were closed as roads were impassable.Up to 100 mm (3.9 inches) of rain was recorded in a nine-hour period to Monday afternoon, which also caused rivers and drainage channels to burst.Prior to the severe weather, the directorate of meteorology issued a number of orange-level notices to warn citizens of heavy rains. Further rainfall warnings were issued for the provinces of Al Hoceima, Chefchaouen, Fahs-Anjra, M’Diq, and Fnideq.

Severe flooding damages hundreds of buildings, strands 14 000 people in Piura, Peru - (video) As many as 14 000 people have been cut off after flooding hit the Piura Region in northern Peru, the National Institute of Civil Defence (INDECI) reported on March 2, 2021. Up to 187 homes have been damaged, as well as public buildings and roads. Intense rains hit the districts of Tambogrande, Las Loma, Chulucanas, and Canchaque, triggering floods that damaged roads, homes, and public buildings. INDECI also reported on March 4 that parts of Mancora and San Miguel de El Faique districts have also been affected. A total of 182 homes have been damaged, five destroyed, while three health facilities have also been hit, according to INDECI figures. The worst affected area was Tambogrande, where around 14 000 people have been cut off after roads were inundated in areas around Malingas. Up to 96.1 mm (3.8 inches) of rain fell in a 24-period to March 3 in Lancones, while up to 85.4 mm (3.4 inches) was recorded in 24 hours to March 4 in El Partidor, according to the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI).SENAMHI added that the Piura River has been rising, prompting a Yellow Level alert at the Puente Nacara hydrological station. "The areas potentially affected by flooding would be the populated centers of Malingas, Pachas, Solsol, and the city of Piura," the agency stated, advising people to take corresponding precautions and avoid any activity near the river.

Deadly snowfall leaves 94 injured, hundreds of cars trapped in South Korea -- One person was killed while 94 others sustained injuries as heavy snowfall engulfed South Korea's northeast region, authorities reported Tuesday, March 2, 2021. Hundreds of vehicles were trapped on some parts of a highway along the east coast, while more than 460 accidents occurred on snow-covered roads. The snowfall began Monday morning, March 1, and continued into Tuesday. Up to 20 cm (7.9 inches) of snow fell inland while up to 77.6 cm (30.5 inches) was registered in the mountains. The snow paralyzed traffic in some parts of the country, leaving hundreds of cars trapped in a 2 km (1.2 miles) stretch between the intersections of Sokcho and Yangyang on late Monday. More than 460 car accidents were reported, resulting in 94 people injured and one fatality. The victim was hit by a car inside a tunnel on a highway linking Seoul to Yangyang. Travel services, including train, ferry, and flight, were affected by cancellations. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) said more than 160 military personnel were deployed to help motorists out of the snow. Meanwhile, the local government of Yangyang sent food assistance for 1 530 people. Authorities also sent more than 3 000 workers and almost 2 900 pieces of equipment to clear snow from roads across the affected regions. In Gangwon alone, about 1 200 people were deployed to remove the snow.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at its weakest in more than 1 000 years -The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), one of the Earth’s major ocean circulation systems that underpins the Gulf Stream, is now at the weakest it has been in more than 1 000 years, a new study shows. Models suggest that this could trigger weather disruptions around the world. The Gulf Stream System works like a giant conveyor belt, explained co-author Stefan Rahmstorf in a press release, and it carries warm surface water from the equator up north, sending cold and low-salinity deep water back down south. It moves nearly 20 million cubic m of water per second (706 million cubic feet per second), which is almost a hundred times the Amazon flow. Since the mid 20th century, the speed of the conveyer belt has decreased by 15 percent. The researchers used proxy data from ocean sediments and ice cores to calculate historic Gulf Stream flow rates. "For the first time, we have combined a range of previous studies and found they provide a consistent picture of the AMOC evolution over the past 1 600 years," said Rahmstorf. "The study results suggest that it has been relatively stable until the late 19th century. With the end of the little ice age in about 1850, the ocean currents began to decline, with a second, more drastic decline following since the mid-20th century." While any single proxy data point may be prone to uncertainty, researchers were able to generate a more reliable portrait by compiling multiple proxy datasets across a huge timescale. "Assuming that the processes measured in proxy records reflect changes in AMOC, they provide a consistent picture, despite the different locations and time scales represented in the data," co-author Niamh Cahill stated. "The AMOC has weakened unprecedentedly in over 1 000 years." An abrupt slowdown of the AMOC could lead to weather disruptions worldwide, including a sudden sea-level increase, changes in the position of arid climate zones, and major rainfall, some models indicate, while its impact may be seen in extreme heatwaves in North America and severe winter storms over Europe. The researchers suggest that the slowdown is already changing a variety of climate patterns. "The northward surface flow of the AMOC leads to a deflection of water masses to the right, away from the US east coast," said co-author Levke Caesar. "This is due to Earth's rotation that diverts moving objects such as currents to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the left in the southern hemisphere. As the current slows down, this effect weakens and more water can pile up at the U.S. east coast, leading to an enhanced sea-level rise."

"Space Hurricane" Spotted Above North Pole, Study Finds  For the first time, a team of researchers from China, the US, Norway, and the UK, have spotted an eye-catching phenomenon above the North Pole, in what they're calling a "space hurricane." The new study said a 600-mile-wide swirling mass of plasma "rained" electrons down on the North Pole. It was only until now that the existence of space hurricanes has been confirmed. Mike Lockwood, a space scientist at the University of Reading in the UK and the co-author of the study titled "A space hurricane over the Earth's polar ionosphere," which was recently published in Nature, said observations made by satellites in August 2014 confirm the existence of "space hurricanes" above Earth.  Lockwood said this particular swirling mass of plasma spun counterclockwise hundreds of miles above the North Pole before eventually fizzling."Tropical storms are associated with huge amounts of energy, and these space hurricanes must be created by unusually large and rapid transfer of solar wind energy and charged particles into the Earth's upper atmosphere," Lockwood said.Because plasma and magnetic fields are typical on planets - the researchers assume this space anomaly is more widespread than previously thought. "Plasma and magnetic fields in the atmosphere of planets exist throughout the universe, so the findings suggest space hurricanes should be a widespread phenomenon," Lockwood said.Researchers still need to study the space hurricane in more depth to see if its geomagnetic activity can disrupt GPS satellites and or land-based power grids.

First space hurricane discovered over the Earth’s polar ionosphere - Scientists have discovered a space hurricane above the North Pole for the first time, which offered an initial glimpse at a phenomenon that could also be taking place on other planets across the universe. The hurricane was raining electrons instead of water, spinning in an anticlockwise direction. Researchers led by China's Shandong University used satellite data to analyze and identify the space hurricane, discovering that it was not a swirling pattern of air and water, but of plasma-ionized gas. The hurricane lasted about eight hours before dissipating. "Until now, it was uncertain that space plasma hurricanes even existed, so to prove this with such a striking observation is incredible," said professor Mike Lockwood, a space scientist at the University of Reading.  Lockwood noted that the space hurricane could be a universal phenomenon at planets and moons with magnetic fields and plasma. "Tropical storms are associated with huge amounts of energy, and these space hurricanes must be created by unusually large and rapid transfer of solar wind energy and charged particles into the Earth's upper atmosphere," he continued. "Plasma and magnetic fields in the atmosphere of planets exist throughout the universe, so the findings suggest space hurricanes should be a widespread phenomenon." The space hurricane, which happened during a period of low geomagnetic activity, was discovered to share main features with hurricanes in the Earth's lower atmosphere. The scientists said the process may also be significant for the interaction between interstellar winds and other solar systems throughout the universe.

Brunt Ice Shelf: Big iceberg calves near UK Antarctic base - A big iceberg approaching the size of Greater London has broken away from the Antarctic, close to Britain's Halley research station. Surface instruments on the Brunt Ice Shelf confirmed the split early on Friday. There is currently no-one in the base, so there is no risk to human life. The British Antarctic Survey has been operating Halley in a reduced role since 2017 because of the imminent prospect of a calving. The berg has been measured to cover 1,270 sq km - nearly 490 square miles. Halley is positioned just over 20km from the line of rupture. BAS has an array of GPS devices on the Brunt. These relay information about ice movements back to the agency's HQ in Cambridge.

 7th spectacular paroxysm at Etna volcano produces heavy ashfall, Italy (videos) A sudden increase in volcanic tremor detected at Etna's Southeast Crater at 07:44 UTC on Sunday morning, February 28, 2021, quickly led to another spectacular paroxysm -- the 7^th since February 16. This paroxysmal episode was characterized by a remarkable intensity and short duration, with the activity of tall lava fountains lasting about 30 minutes. The fountaining peaked at 08:25 UTC and stopped almost suddenly at 08:33 UTC, while the lava flow towards Valle del Bove remained active.Ash column rose several kilometers above the crater and spread into a large umbrella cloud. Heavy ashfall was reported ESE of the volcano, particularly in Zafferana, Milo and Fornazzo villages where 1 - 2 cm (0.4 - 0.8 inches) of ash was reported. Members of the VolcanoDiscovery Team observed the eruption from approximately 10 km (6.2 miles) distance in a location between Fornazzo and Sant'Alfio, at the very edge of the ash fallout. "Even there, black scoria of up to 3 cm (1.2 inches) in diameter were falling like hail during a storm, causing us to seek shelter under a roof," volcanologist Tom Pfeiffer said.A significant bush fire started during the peak phase of yesterday's activity in the Valle del Bove near or on the southern slope of Monte Rinato, Pfeiffer added. "Initially, the appearance of fumes from this area raised speculations of a possible new vent in the Valle del Bove, but soon were discarded. The cause of the fire remains speculative, but most likely, it was ignited by an exceptionally far-traveled hot volcanic bomb that landed in an area of dense, dry vegetation yesterday."

8th paroxysm starts at Etna volcano with very strong ash emission, Italy - The 8th paroxysmal eruptive episode since February 16 has started at Etna volcano around 13:00 UTC on March 2, 2021. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 12:39 UTC. In VONA released at 13:17 UTC, Etna Volcano Observatory reported very strong ash emission from the Southeast Crater. The estimated volcanic cloud height is 9 km (29 500 feet) above sea level, drifting toward the south. Unfortunately, the weather over the volcano is cloudy, preventing continuous clear observation. Heavy ashfall was reported in nearby areas. Two styles of eruptive activity typically occur at Etna. Persistent explosive eruptions, sometimes with minor lava emissions, take place from one or more of the three prominent summit craters, the Central Crater, NE Crater, and SE Crater (the latter formed in 1978). Flank vents, typically with higher effusion rates, are less frequently active and originate from fissures that open progressively downward from near the summit (usually accompanied by strombolian eruptions at the upper end). Cinder cones are commonly constructed over the vents of lower-flank lava flows. Lava flows extend to the foot of the volcano on all sides and have reached the sea over a broad area on the SE flank. (GVP)

Another eruption at Etna volcano, heavy ash up to 12 km (39 370 feet) a.s.l., Italy - Etna's 9th paroxysmal eruptive episode since February 16 started at 02:20 UTC on March 4, 2021, followed by several hours of strong strombolian activity and renewed fountaining at 07:50 UTC. Lava fountains reached about 500 m (1 640 feet) above the edge of the crater while ash rose up to 12 km (39 370 feet) above sea level. Effusive activity remained active in the Valle del Bove after lava fountaining was over, with well-powered lava flows. The volcanic tremor and the extent of infrasonic events remained very high by 09:20 UTC when they started rapidly decreasing. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 02:28 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 10:16 UTC.

Major eruption at Sinabung volcano produces large pyroclastic flows with ash up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) a.s.l. -- A major eruption started at the Indonesian Sinabung volcano at 23:42 UTC on March 1, 2021, ejecting ash up to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level. This is its first major eruption since August 2020. The eruption produced pyroclastic flows up to 5 km (3.1 miles) down the ESE slope of the volcano.Sinabung Volcano Observatory raised the Aviation Color Code from Orange to Red at 00:20 UTC and lowered it back to Orange at 02:47 UTC. Some of the people were seen panicking but there were no reports of casualties, officials said.Residents are urged to stay at least 3 km (1.8 miles) from the crater.Some of the people were seen panicking but there were no reports of casualties, officials said.Residents are urged to stay at least 3 km (1.8 miles) from the crater.  Sinabung woke up in 2010 after 4 centuries of sleep. Since then, at least 23 people have been killed and more than 30 000 displaced.

Very strong M7.2 earthquake hits off the east coast of North Island, New Zealand - A very strong earthquake registered by GeoNet as M7.2 hit off the east coast of the North Island, New Zealand at 13:27 UTC on March 4, 2021 (02:27 LT, March 5). The agency is reporting a depth of 94 km (58 miles). USGS is reporting it as M6.9 at a depth of 10 km, EMSC as M7.3 at the same depth.The epicenter was located 178 km (111 miles) NE of Gisborne and 228 km (142 miles) E of Whakatane, New Zealand.There are about 200 people living within 100 km (62 miles).8 000 people are estimated to have felt moderate shaking and 89 000 light.Based on the preliminary earthquake parameters, hazardous tsunami waves are possible for coasts located within 300 km (180 miles) of the earthquake epicenter, PTWC said.A tsunami is a series of waves. The time between wave crests can vary from 5 minutes to an hour."We are assessing whether the earthquake has created a tsunami that could affect New Zealand. We will provide an update as soon as the initial assessment has been completed," New Zealand's National Emergency Management Agency said."Anyone near the coast who felt a LONG or STRONG quake should MOVE IMMEDIATELY to the nearest high ground, or as far inland as you can." The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. There is a low likelihood of casualties and damage.Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are highly resistant to earthquake shaking, though some vulnerable structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are reinforced masonry and unreinforced brick with timber floor construction.Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as landslides that might have contributed to losses.

Powerful earthquakes, including M8.1, M7.4 and M6.1 hit the Kermadec Islands - Tsunami warnings issued - Powerful earthquakes are shaking the Kermadec Islands region of New Zealand on March 4, 2021, including M7.4 at 17:41 UTC, M8.1 at 19:28 (08:28 NZDT, March 5), and M6.1 at 20:25 UTC at depths between 10 and 55 km (6.2 and 34.2 miles).The epicenters are located about 960 km (600 miles) SSW of Ohonua, Tonga, and 1 030 km (640 miles) NE of Northland, New Zealand.There are no people living within 100 km (62 miles).The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) of New Zealand has issued a TSUNAMI WARNING for New Zealand coastal areas.There is a LAND and MARINE TSUNAMI THREAT.The first waves may reach New Zealand in the areas around Lottin Point at approximately 09:49 am NZDT (20:49 UTC, March 4). Tsunami activity will continue for several hours and the threat must be regarded as real until the warning is canceled, NEMA said."Evacuation advice overrides the current COVID-19 Alert Level requirements. Listen to local Civil Defence authorities and follow any instructions. If you are told to evacuate do not stay at home. Stay 2 m [6.5 feet] away from others if you can and if it is safe to do so." This is a Tsunami Warning for New Zealand coastal areas following the magnitude 8.1 earthquake near KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION. Coastal inundation (flooding of land areas) is expected in the following areas: The West Coast of the North Island from CAPE REINGA to AHIPARA. The East Coast of the North Island from CAPE REINGA to WHANGAREI, from MATATA to TOLAGA BAY including Whakatane and Opotiki. And GREAT BARRIER ISLAND. Strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges near the shore are expected in the following areas. This means a threat to beach, harbour, estuary and small boat activities. The West Coast of the North Island from AHIPARA to MAKARA including the West Coast of Auckland, Manukau Harbour, New Plymouth, Whanganui and the Kapiti Coast. The East Coast of the North Island from WHANGAREI to MATATA including Whangarei, the East Coast of Auckland, Waiheke Island, Waitemata Harbour and Tauranga, from TOLAGA BAY to LAKE FERRY including Gisborne and Napier. The West and South Coasts of the South Island from FAREWELL SPIT to PUYSEGUR POINT including Westport, Greymouth and Hokitika. The top of the South Island from FAREWELL SPIT to PORT UNDERWOOD including Nelson, Picton and the Marlborough Sounds. The East and South Coasts of the South Island from the WAIPARA RIVER to the RAKAIA RIVER including Christchurch and Banks Peninsula, from the TAIERI RIVER to PUYSEGUR POINT including Invercargill. And STEWART ISLAND. And the CHATHAM ISLANDS. The first waves may reach New Zealand in the areas around Lottin Point at approximately 9:49am New Zealand Daylight Time. The severity of currents and surges will vary within a particular coastal area and over the period this warning is in effect. The first wave may not be the largest. Tsunami activity will continue for several hours and the threat must be regarded as real until this warning is cancelled.

 15 000 earthquakes hit the Reykjanes Peninsula since February 24, Iceland - The Icelandic Met Office (IMO) has detected around 15 000 earthquakes in Reykjanes Peninsula since an intense earthquake swarm started on February 24, 2021. By March 1, the number rose to over 10 000 and by March 3 it's already around 15 000, with quite a few over M4.0 and two over M5.0. Most of the activity is confined to the vicinity of Keilir and Trölladyngja, IMO said. The Scientific Council for Civil Protection met at a teleconference on March 1. The meeting was attended by representatives from the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the University of Iceland, the Environment Agency, Isavia-ANS, HS-Orka, and ÍSOR. The council reviewed satellite images (InSAR) and concluded that the most likely explanation is that magma is forming under the area where the greatest seismic activity has taken place in recent days.  In light of these new data, the council made several possible scenarios involving magma intrusion under Fagradalsfjall:

• The seismic activity reduces in the next few days or weeks.
• Seismicity increases with larger quakes, up to M6 in the vicinity of Fagradalsfjall.
• An earthquake of magnitude up to 6.5 will have its source in the Sulfur Mountains.
• Magma intrusions continue in the vicinity of Fagradalsfjall: (1) Magma intrusion activity decreases and magma solidifies; (2) The activity leads to a lava flow that will probably not threaten settlements.

It is difficult to predict the exact development and whether one scenario is more likely than another, IMO said.

Fossil fuel emissions in danger of surpassing pre-Covid levels - The world has only a few months to prevent the energy industry’s carbon emissions from surpassing pre-pandemic levels this year as economies begin to rebound from Covid-19 restrictions, according to the International EnergyAgency.New figures from the global energy watchdog found that fossil fuel emissions climbed steadily over the second half of the year as major economies began to recover. By December 2020, carbon emissions were 2% higher than in the same month the year before.The return of rising emissions began only months after Covid-19 triggered the deepest slump in carbon dioxide output since the end of the second world war, and threatens to dash hopes that the world’s emissions might have peaked in 2019.Dr Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said: “We are putting the historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak of global emissions at risk. If in the next few months governments do not put the right clean energy policies in place, we may well be returning to our carbon-intensive business as usual. This is in stark contrast with the ambitious commitments made by several governments one after the other.” The IEA was one of many influential groups to call on global governments to put in place plans to use green energy policies as an economic stimulus in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. However, a Guardian investigation revealed that only a small number of major countries began pumping rescue funds into low-carbon efforts such as renewable power, electric vehicles and energy efficiency last year.The agency’s first ever report to record monthly carbon emissions by region found a strong correlation between countries that put in place economic stimulus packages with a net environmental benefit – such as France, Spain, the UK and Germany – and those that have kept a lid on the carbon emissions rebound.Meanwhile, the countries that had made the smallest contributions to green economic stimulus measures, such as China, India, the United States and Brazil, recorded steep carbon rebounds in the second half of last year as their economies began to reopen.

Biden Admin Sets Interim Obama-Era 'Social Cost' Estimates for Greenhouse Pollution The Biden administration announced it will use Obama-era calculations of the "social cost" of three greenhouse gas pollutants while an interagency working group calculates a more complete estimate, the White House announced Friday. Often described as "the most important number you've never heard of," the "social cost" of greenhouse gases estimates the harms to society caused by each ton of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emitted into the atmosphere. Those estimates are used across government in calculating the costs and benefits of proposed actions. Though the administration did not specify the exact costs, multiple outlets report the interim estimate of the social cost of carbon will be approximately $51 per ton. The interagency working group also set the social cost of methane, a far more potent heat trapping gas, at $1,500 per ton and at $18,000 for nitrous oxide, Politico reported. The Trump administration had slashed those estimates to as low as $1 per ton for carbon dioxide and $55 per ton for methane. The final estimate for the social cost of carbon produced by the interagency working group could reach as high as $125 after accounting for scientific advances and climatic damage over the past four years but the Obama-era estimates were subject to extensive scientific and agency review and public comment, making them more likely to withstand legal challenges.

White House climate czar to AP: Texas storm 'a wake-up call' (AP) — The deadly winter storm that caused widespread power outages in Texas and other states is a “wake-up call” for the United States to build energy systems and other infrastructure that are more reliable and resilient in the face of extreme-weather events linked to climate change, President Joe Biden’s national climate adviser says. In an interview with The Associated Press, Gina McCarthy said Friday that the storm that devastated Texas and other states “is not going to be as unusual as people had hoped. It is going to happen, and we need to be as resilient and working together as much as possible. We need systems of energy that are reliable and resilient as well.″ McCarthy said the scientific evidence is clear that more frequent and more dangerous storms are likely, “and if we really care about keeping our people working and keeping our kids healthy and giving them a future we’re proud of, then we’re not going to ignore these wake-up calls. We’re going to take action.″ McCarthy’s comments came as Biden and his wife Jill were in Texas to survey damage caused by the storm, which caused millions of homes and business to lose heat and running water. At least 40 people in the state died. “We need to envision a future and an optimistic way of giving people hope again — that we are building back better,″ she said, using Biden’s slogan for a plan costing at least $2 trillion to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure and create clean-energy jobs. “It is a catchy phrase, but it also is a kind of optimistic rallying cry and I think we ought to heed it,″ McCarthy said. McCarthy said she expects an “after-action” report on the Texas crisis and ways it can be avoided in the future. Many people were caught in frigid homes that lacked heat for days in subfreezing temperatures. Texas is not connected to the rest of the nation’s power grid, and McCarthy said the storm may be reason to rethink that. “You know, now’s not the time for me to be pointing fingers, but clearly the United States has always done best when it’s worked together and relied on one another,″ she said. “And I think Texas might ... have a real opportunity and probably ought to think about making sure they join with their neighbors in an interstate grid system that allows them flexibility, and that helps them help their neighbors when the time comes.″

U.S. House Democratic lawmakers introduce wide-ranging climate bill  (Reuters) - Three Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled a wide-ranging climate bill on Tuesday that embraces President Joe Biden’s goals to curb climate change including decarbonizing the electric grid by 2035. Introduced by Representatives Frank Pallone, Paul Tonko and Bobby Rush, and incorporating input from the Biden administration, the bill includes a federal clean electricity standard requiring a percentage of retail power sales to come from sources that produce little or no carbon emissions. The Climate Leadership and Environmental Action for our Nation’s Future Act, or CLEAN, requires 80% clean electricity by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The power could come from sources including wind, solar and existing nuclear energy. That could provide a boost to nuclear power, an industry experiencing shutdowns amid low prices for natural gas, a competing fuel. ADVERTISEMENT The bill also sets a goal of a fully decarbonized economy by 2050. On transportation, the largest source of carbon emissions, the bill authorizes $100 million annually from fiscal 2022 to 2031 for entities that install publicly accessible electric vehicle (EV) supply equipment. It also requires the energy secretary to establish a program to help determine where EV charging stations are needed and expands EV access in disadvantaged communities. The legislation, which needs to pass committees and then the full House and Senate and be signed by Biden before becoming law, does not include a carbon tax, a mechanism supported by some Republicans and companies. “The votes are just not there for a price on carbon,” also known as a carbon tax, Pallone told reporters. He said a carbon price had concerns from an environmental justice perspective because it could allow industries to keep polluting as long as they buy permits from entities that have cut emissions elsewhere.

ENERGY POLICY: Granholm's DOE: What's coming on climate, clean power -- Jennifer Granholm was sworn in as the nation's 16th secretary of Energy last night, giving her a pivotal role in President Biden's aggressive plans to decarbonize the power sector, even as she is likely to be constrained by the limited powers of the massive agency. Granholm, a former two-term Michigan governor who embraced clean energy as a way of reviving her Rust Belt state during a staggering recession, took office after being confirmed 64-35 in the Senate yesterday afternoon. Granholm will be only the second woman to head the Energy Department, and in a video and blog post after the swearing-in, she pledged that DOE will be a central player in Biden's bid to tackle climate change by putting into "hyperdrive" its efforts to boost alternative energy. "President Biden has tasked the department, his in-house solutions powerhouse, with delivering a cornerstone of his bold plan: the goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050," she wrote. "For DOE, that means developing and deploying the technologies that will deliver a clean energy revolution." She marked her first hours in office with an interview with MSNBC, telling the network that it's not politics that is driving clean energy, but the market. "These companies and countries across the globe are deciding it's too much to see a planet that has so many horrible climate events," she said. DOE is the "solutions place," where the national laboratories work on solutions to decarbonize fossil fuels, she said. "She's a trailblazer," said Nidhi Thakar, strategy director at Portland General Electric, Oregon's largest utility. "She's made it clear that her vision for the department, in addition to securing national security and supporting science at our national labs, is to advance American manufacturing and innovation to help battle against climate change and to support good-paying American jobs."   In addition to overseeing the department's 17 national labs, a nuclear arsenal and Cold War-era cleanup sites, the secretary oversees a multibillion-dollar loan guarantee program that proved a lightning rod under the last Democratic president, along with various offices focused on fossil fuels, renewables, energy efficiency, research into battery storage, and efforts to both modernize and protect the electricity grid.

On Fraser’s First Day as Citi CEO, Bank Vows Net-Zero Emissions –  On her first day as chief executive officer, Jane Fraser vowed Citigroup Inc. would achieve net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions in its financing activities by 2050. The bank will produce an initial plan for reaching the goal within the next year, Fraser said in a blog postMonday. It will include specific targets for carbon-intensive sectors such as energy to reduce their emissions by 2030, she said. “The climate crisis is among the top critical challenges facing our global society and economy,” Fraser said. “We are committed to bringing as many clients as we can along with us on this journey and working with them relentlessly to get it right.” Citigroup was the third-largest financier of fossil-fuel companies last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With its latest commitment, the bank is joining competitors Bank of America Corp. andMorgan Stanley, which have also promised recently to achieve net-zero emissions in their lending and underwriting activities.

Massachusetts groups back expanded carbon tax with focus on equity -A proposal in the Massachusetts legislature would charge a carbon tax on transportation and heating fuel to fund “green dividends” and local climate projects. Massachusetts climate and justice advocates are endorsing new legislation they say would create more than half a billion dollars in annual revenue for climate action while protecting lower-income households from added energy costs.Most of the money under the Green Future Act (HD 1972) would come from closing what some advocates call a “pollution fee loophole” — extending an existing carbon fee requirement for power plants to also include transportation and heating fuels, which account for 74% of the state’s emissions.The change would generate between $500 million and $750 million per year, say supporters of the proposal. The money would be split between direct payments to lower-income households, a fund to assist displaced fossil fuel workers, and awards to cities and towns for projects that would reduce carbon emissions, either directly or indirectly.“It’s pretty comprehensive in terms of not only trying to drive the policy change but also putting a revenue source behind it,” said the bill’s sponsor, state Rep. William Driscoll Jr. “It helps to lay out the path forward to how we’re going to decarbonize.”Massachusetts is already in the midst of an intensive conversation about the state’s climate future. In December, Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration released its decarbonization roadmap, a strategic document laying out broad steps the state needs to take to achieve its goal of going carbon-neutral by 2050. The governor and the legislature are also deep in discussions about how to make a comprehensive climate bill acceptable to all parties. Against this background, Driscoll’s bill attempts to offer a concrete vision for how to fund the state’s climate priorities and goals.

A Texas city had a bold new climate plan – until a gas company got involved - When the city of Austin drafted a plan to shift away from fossil fuels, the local gas company was fast on the scene to try to scale back the ambition of the effort.Like many cities across the US, the rapidly expanding and gentrifying Texascity is looking to shrink its climate footprint. So its initial plan was to virtually eliminate gas use in new buildings by 2030 and existing ones by 2040. Homes and businesses would have to run on electricity and stop using gas for heat, hot water and stoves.The proposal, an existential threat to the gas industry, quickly caught the attention of Texas Gas Service. The company drafted line-by-line revisions to weaken the plan, asked customers to oppose it and escalated its concerns to top city officials.In its suggested edits, the company struck references to “electrification”, and replaced them with “decarbonization”– a policy that wouldn’t rule out gas. It replaced “electric vehicles” with “alternative fuel vehicles”, which could run on compressed natural gas. It offered to help the city to plant more trees to absorb climate pollution and to explore technologies to pull carbon dioxide out of the air – both of which might help it to keep burning gas. Those proposed revisions were shared with Floodlight, the Texas Observer and San Antonio Report, by the Climate Investigations Center, which obtained them through public records of communications between city officials and the company.The moves have so far proven a success for Texas Gas. The most recently published draft of the climate plan gives the company much more time to sell gas to existing customers, and it allows it to offset climate emissions instead of eliminating them. The city, however, is revisiting the plan after a backlash to the industry-secured changes.The lobbying in Austin is not unique. It echoes how an electricity and gas company spent hundreds of thousands of dollars scaling back San Antonio’s climate ambitions by funding the city’s plan-writing process, replacing academics with its preferred consultants and writing its own “Flexible Path” that would let it keep polluting.

Proposal would capture CO2 from Midwestern ethanol plants to store in North Dakota - An Iowa-based company is spearheading a project to gather carbon dioxide from at least 17 Midwestern ethanol plants and pipe it to North Dakota to store deep underground.The greenhouse gas is generated during the fermentation process and released into the atmosphere, where it contributes to climate change.Summit Carbon Solutions is leading the $2 billion effort, which it expects to be operational by 2024. At least one North Dakota ethanol plant is participating -- Tharaldson Ethanol near Casselton -- along with others in South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa.The project would entail a main pipeline, smaller pipelines to each participating plant, carbon capture equipment at each facility, and new injection wells. It has the potential to capture and store up to 10 million tons of carbon dioxide per year underground, equivalent to taking 2 million cars off the road, according to Summit.The company's announcement adds to a growing list of carbon capture and storage projects in North Dakota. Those efforts have contributed extensive research into the makeup of rocks as deep as 10,000 feet underground to find the ideal layer where carbon dioxide could stay buried forever. That’s part of what attracted the company to the state, said Bruce Rastetter, CEO of Summit Agricultural Group, the parent of Summit Carbon Solutions.“You have the geology formations,” he said.North Dakota also has something else going for it that’s attractive to companies seeking a way to stop the carbon dioxide they generate from escaping into the atmosphere. The state has authority to regulate the wells in which carbon dioxide would be injected. It became the first state in the nation in 2018 to assume that power from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Richardton-based Red Trail Energy applied to the North Dakota Industrial Commission for a permit from the state in February, making it the first company to do so. The ethanol plant is planning to capture its carbon emissions to store in a deep rock formation near the facility.

Iowa company wants to store carbon dioxide from Midwest ethanol plants in N.D. - — An Iowa company is leading a $2 billion effort to capture carbon dioxide from Midwestern ethanol plants and pipe it to North Dakota where it would be buried deep underground. The greenhouse gas is generated during the fermentation process and contributes to climate change when it's released into the atmosphere. Summit Carbon Solutions' project would gather carbon dioxide from at least 17 ethanol plants and pipe it to North Dakota where it would be injected into wells and stored underground. The carbon dioxide would be compressed into liquid form at the ethanol plants where feeder pipelines would send it to a larger pipeline that would extend across the Upper Midwest to North Dakota, the Bismarck Tribune reported. The project adds to a growing list of carbon capture and storage projects in North Dakota where extensive research has been done on the makeup of rocks as deep as 10,000 feet underground to find the ideal layer where carbon dioxide could stay buried forever. That's part of what attracted the company to the state, said Bruce Rastetter, CEO of Summit Agricultural Group, the parent of Summit Carbon Solutions. "You have the geology formations," he said. Another factor that makes North Dakota an attractive option is the state's authority to regulate the wells in which carbon dioxide would be injected. In 2018, it became the first state to assume that authority from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. According to Summit, the project has the potential to capture and store up to 10 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, which it said would be equivalent to taking 2 million cars off the road. Summit said construction of the project could take at least 16 months and that it would create 10,000 temporary jobs. It expects the project to be operational by 2024. Summit is also exploring other options, including injecting the gas into depleted oil fields to boost oil production, Rastetter said. A federal tax credit is helping bolster that process, known as enhanced oil recovery, as well as underground storage. Rastetter said Summit's project wouldn't be possible without it. 

Bitcoin's 'Staggering' Energy Consumption Raises Climate Concerns - As bitcoin's fortunes and prominence rise, so do concerns about its environmental impact. The process of mining the cryptocurrency is enormously energy intensive, so much so that it consumes more electricity in a year than Argentina or the Ukraine, according to the latest data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index. Its energy hunger even led to a warning from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week, as CNBC reported.  "It's an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions," Yellen said, "and the amount of energy that's consumed in processing those transactions is staggering." Bitcoin's value rose past $50,000 two weeks ago, CNN Business reported at the time. It was in part buoyed by the success of Elon Musk, whose electric car company Tesla made more than $900 million after buying $1.5 billion of the currency, BBC News reported.  Bitcoin mining is energy intensive by design. There are only 21 million bitcoins that can be mined, a process that involves solving complex math problems on a computer to release new coins. When bitcoin first started in 2009, it was possible to mine for bitcoin on a normal computer. However, the currency is designed so that the fewer bitcoins left to be released, the more complicated the problems become. Now that 18.5 million bitcoins have been mined, an average computer cannot handle the calculations. As the price rises, more people are motivated to get in on the action.  "They want to get that revenue," University of Chicago economics professor Gina Pieters told BBC News, "and that's what's going to encourage them to introduce more and more powerful machines in order to guess this random number, and therefore you will see an increase in energy consumption." Pieters is part of the University of Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), which runs the bitcoin electricity use index. CCAF calculates that bitcoin now uses 129.22 terawatt hours of electricity a year, according to its most recent update.

Electricity needed to mine bitcoin is more than used by 'entire countries' - It’s not just the value of bitcoin that has soared in the last year – so has the huge amount of energy it consumes. The cryptocurrency’s value has dipped recently after passing a high of $50,000 but the energy used to create it has continued to soar during its epic rise, climbing to the equivalent to the annual carbon footprint of Argentina, according to Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, a tool from researchers at Cambridge University that measures the currency’s energy use.  “Mining” bitcoin involves solving complex math problems in order to create new bitcoins. Miners are rewarded in bitcoin. Earlier in bitcoin’s relatively short history – the currency was created in 2009 – one could mine bitcoin on an average computer. Now that over 18.5m bitcoin have been mined, the average computer can no longer mine bitcoins. Instead, mining now requires special computer equipment that can handle the intense processing power needed to get bitcoin today. And, of course, these special computers need a lot of electricity to run. The amount of electricity used to mine bitcoin “has historically been more than [electricity used by] entire countries, like Ireland”,   “We’re talking about multiple terawatts, dozens of terawatts a year of electricity being used just for bitcoin … That’s a lot of electricity.” Since there is no government body or organization that officially tracks where bitcoin is being mined and what type of electricity miners are using, there is no way of knowing whether miners are using electricity that is fueled by renewable energy or fossil fuels. Mining rigs can move from place to place depending on where energy is cheapest, which makes mining particularly hard to track.“The places where you mine [bitcoin] can be moved around and, in some cases, you don’t even know where they are,”  Cambridge’s Centre for Alternative Finances estimates that bitcoin’s annualised electricity consumption hovers just above 115 terawatt-hours (TWh) while Digiconomist’s closely tracked index puts it closer to 80 TWh.A single transaction of bitcoin has the same carbon footprint as 680,000 Visa transactions or 51,210 hours of watching YouTube, according to the site.A paper from 2018 from the Oak Ridge Institute in Ohio found that one dollar’s worth of bitcoin took 17 megajoules of energy, more than double the amount of energy it took to mine one dollar’s worth of copper, gold and platinum. Another study from the UK published last year said that computer power required to mine Bitcoin quadrupled in 2019 compared with the year before, and that mining has had an influence in prices in some power and utility markets.

A major Chinese bitcoin mining hub is shutting down its cryptocurrency operations — China's Inner Mongolia region plans to ban new cryptocurrency mining projects and shut down existing activity in a bid to cut down on energy-consumption.Bitcoin is based on a decentralized network, which means it's not issued by a single entity like a central bank. Transactions, recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, need to be "verified" by miners.These miners run purpose-built computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles that effectively allow a bitcoin transaction to happen. The miners receive bitcoin as a reward and that is the incentive.But because the computers are high-powered, they consume a lot of energy.Bitcoin mining consumes an estimated 128.84 terrawatt-hour per year of energy — more than entire countries such as Ukraine and Argentina, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, a project of the University of Cambridge.China accounts for around 65% of all bitcoin mining globally — Inner Mongolia alone accounts for about 8%, due to its cheap energy. In comparison, the United States accounts for 7.2% of global bitcoin mining.Not all cryptocurrencies work like bitcoin, however.Inner Mongolia, located in northern China, failed to meet central government assessment targets regarding energy use in 2019 and was scolded by Beijing. In response, the region's development and reform commission laid out plans to reduce energy consumption.Part of those plans involve shutting down existing cryptocurrency mining projects by April 2021 and not approving any new ones. They also involve reassessing other energy-intensive industries like steel and coal.While the Chinese government has backed the development of bitcoin's underlying blockchain technology, it has looked to crack down on digital currencies themselves. In 2017, Beijing banned initial coin offerings, a way to issue digital tokens and raise money. The government has also cracked down on businesses involved in cryptocurrency operations, such as exchanges. China is also pushing to become more environmentally friendly. President Xi Jinping said last year that the country is targeting peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by the year 2060.

Ross Conrad: Vermont and HydroQuebec at a racist crossroads - The environmental devastation caused by the flooding 308 million acres of forest land in Northern Canada by HydroQuebec results in significant amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, and poisons the flora and fauna with the resulting methylmercury. While this seriously detracts from the benefits of “clean” hydro energy, the impacts on the Indigenous people is unconscionable. The Pikogan, Lac Simon, Kitcisakik and Winneway (Anishinabe), Pessamit (Innu) and Wemotaci (Atikamekw) tribal people have been removed from their homelands and traditional hunting grounds without their consent. Nor have they been compensated in any way for the land that has been taken from them. The people themselves are dying not only from starvation resulting from the destruction of their traditional hunting and fishing grounds, but also from mythlmercury poisoning caused by the flooding of the land (their source of food and sustenance). Many of the native people don’t even have electricity so they can’t take advantage of the “benefits” of the hydro development. To say that this collateral damage should be accepted as the cost of effectively dealing with global warming is so appalling and distasteful to me that I struggle to find the words to express myself. It is the insidious nature of systemic racism that it becomes normalized and commonplace and permeates all levels of our culture and society. This is responsible for allowing otherwise intelligent, good, kind, loving and caring people to hold and promote such explicitly racist views and ideas even when they are staring them right in the face. By using HydroQuebec power, we provide our tacit approval and consent for the continued theft of land and genocidal approach to the Indigenous populations of North America. This situation is all the more egregious given that we Americans consume about 25 percent of the world’s energy while comprising only about 5 percent of the world’s population and huge amounts of this energy is simply wasted through laziness, carelessness and inefficiency.

Lawmaker wants cross border hydropower permit reconsidered (AP) — U.S. Rep. Jared Golden is asking the Biden administration to reevaluate its approval of a presidential permit for a $1 billion project aimed at bringing Canadian hydropower to the New England grid. The presidential permit issued by the Department of Energy in January provided the green light for the interconnect at the Canadian border. Other agencies had already signed off. In his letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Golden raised several concerns, including the adequacy of the environmental review and public input compared to similar-scaled projects in New England. “In an effort to ensure a transparent and thorough permitting process, I urge you to reevaluate the issuance of the presidential permit and provide Mainers with the opportunity to engage with your agency through a public comment process that is merited for the significance of this project,” Golden, a Democrat from Maine, wrote. The 145-mile (230-kilometer) New England Clean Energy Connect would provide a conduit for up to 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower to reach the regional power grid. Proponents say it would stabilize energy prices and reduce carbon pollution. But critics have raised concerns about a 53-mile (85-kilometer) stretch that would be cut through the woods of western Maine. Three conservation groups are suing to require a more detailed study of the impact on the environment, and a referendum drive aims to let people have the final say on the project.

GMP to buy power from Great River Hydro | Vermont Business --Green Mountain Power (GMP) today announced a power purchase agreement with Great River Hydro to provide clean, cost-effective, local and reliable power for customers. The power purchase agreement, subject to Public Utility Commission review and approval, is for 30 years starting in 2023. The contract creates long-term stability in GMP’s power supply while also enabling opportunity for more local renewables as Vermont pushes to meet clean energy goals to combat climate change. GMP’s purchases from Great River Hydro’s local and regional facilities along the Connecticut and Deerfield rivers will increase over time, just as other GMP power supply agreements step down, but will cover a smaller portion of GMP’s load. This will create opportunity for other complementary local and regional renewables like solar and wind, especially as customers transition heating and transportation to clean electricity as a part of Vermont’s climate goals. Energy deliveries will ramp up to approximately 625,000 MWh/year by 2033. For context, the average energy volume delivered under the PPA will be roughly 40 percent less than the volume of GMP's largest long-term resource commitment, the current long-term PPA with Hydro-Quebec. The filing with the PUC states that the price for the Peaking Hydroelectric Energy starts at approximately $45/MWh, and the price for the Firm Hydroelectric Energy starts at approximately $47/MWh, each inclusive of the associated Environmental Attributes. The starting price will be subject to a fixed escalator with no market adjustment, locking in stable pricing based on a favorable market environment and providing stability and predictability over time.

 A sand shortage? The world is running out of a crucial — but under-appreciated — commodity — An insatiable global appetite for sand, one of the world's most important but least appreciated commodities, is unlikely to let up anytime soon. The problem, however, is that this resource is slipping away. Our entire society is built on sand. It is the world's most consumed raw material after water and an essential ingredient to our everyday lives. Sand is the primary substance used in the construction of roads, bridges, high-speed trains and even land regeneration projects. Sand, gravel and rock crushed together are melted down to make the glass used in every window, computer screen and smart phone. Even the production of silicon chips uses sand. Yet, the world is facing a shortage — and climate scientists say it constitutes one of the greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century. "Is it time for panicking? Well, that will certainly not help, but it is time to take a look and change our perception about sand," Pascal Peduzzi, a climate scientist with the United Nations Environment Programme, said during a webinar hosted by think tank Chatham House. Peduzzi, who is the director of UNEP's Global Resource Information Database in Geneva, Switzerland, described the global governance of sand resources as "the elephant in the room." "We just think that sand is everywhere. We never thought we would run out of sand, but it is starting in some places. It is about anticipating what can happen in the next decade or so because if we don't look forward, if we don't anticipate, we will have massive problems about sand supply but also about land planning," he added. At present, it is not possible to accurately monitor global sand use. However, Peduzzi said it could be measured indirectly, citing a "very, very good" correlation between the use of sand and cement. The UN estimates that 4.1 billion tons of cement is produced every year, driven primarily by China, which constitutes 58% of today's sand-fueled construction boom. The global use of sand and gravels has been found to be 10 times higher than that of cement. This means that, for construction alone, the world consumes roughly 40 to 50 billion tons of sand on an annual basis. That's enough to build a wall of 27 meters high by 27 meters wide that wraps around the planet every year.

Nationalism on natural resources is surging, and could spell danger for commodities -- Countries rich in natural resources have become increasingly protectionist over the past year as Covid-19 threatened their economies, a new study has shown. A report published Thursday by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft indicated that over the course of 2020, 34 countries had seen a "significant increase" in resource nationalism, with the pandemic exacerbating an existing trend toward government intervention. Verisk Maplecroft determined that 18 of the 34 countries are dependent on the minerals or hydrocarbons they export, and predicted that the threat of isolationism would increase in the coming years as governments attempt to plug fiscal holes in the wake of the pandemic. The mining sector will bear the brunt of new measures, according to the report, with some of the world's top producers of copper and iron ore, particularly in Africa and South America, featuring among the top 10 countries at risk. "It is entirely understandable that governments are casting around for additional sources of revenue in these fiscally constrained times," Verisk's Hugo Brennan, Head of Mining Risk told CNBC on Friday. "Commodity prices have enjoyed a stellar start to 2021 and this puts the mining sector firmly on the radar of national governments." The top 10 in Verisk Maplecroft's Resource Nationalism Index comprised Venezuela, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Russia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Tanzania, Bolivia and Papua New Guinea. "These are countries most likely to resort to the bluntest instruments in the resource nationalism toolbox, such as direct expropriations with no, or inadequate, compensation," Verisk Americas analysts Mariano Machado and Jimena Blanco noted. In recent years, North Korea has announced a new five-year plan that analysts say confirms the decision to increase self-sufficiency and further centralize control of the economy. Meanwhile, Zambia has been embroiled in a long-running legal dispute with Vedanta Resources over its attempt to liquidate the company's Konkola Copper Mines. President Edgar Lungu's government also threatened to suspend Glencore's license to operate the Mopani copper mine in April 2020, amid tensions over the use of the asset as a swing producer. "The subsequent move to acquire a majority stake in Mopani underscores President Lungu's desire to increase state control over strategic mining assets in Zambia and has done his populist credential no harm either," Africa Analyst Aleix Montana told CNBC.

Where should new power lines for offshore wind go? Dominion Energy holding meetings to gather input — Dominion Energy is looking for input as to where power lines carrying current from their offshore wind turbines should be placed in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. The power company is holding four virtual public meetings this week, two on each Tuesday and Wednesday, to update the community on their latest plans for the $8-billion project that’ll see 188 wind turbines off the coast of Virginia by 2026. While the wind farm’s location is solidified, the path the power will take to the online substation is not. Current plans call for 27 miles of undersea power cables to come ashore at or near the State Military Reservation (formerly Camp Pendleton) and eventually make their way to a Dominion substation near Naval Auxiliary Landing Field Fentress in Chesapeake. “We need to have a collaborative discussion with everyone in Hampton Roads, especially Chesapeake and Virginia Beach to get their input on the best place to put the onshore infrastructure,” said Bonita Billingsley Harris, a regional director of Dominion Energy. Harris said the lines could be a combination of above and below-ground on the nearly 20-mile journey. The plan is to maximize the use of existing rights-of-way and other available space where feasible.

Wind Power Was Thriving in Texas. Then Came the Freeze. - WSJ—The Texas wind industry suffered a devastating financial blow during last month’s electricity crisis, which hit roughly half of the state’s wind farms and may force some to seek bankruptcy protection or relinquish control to Wall Street.With ample breezes and open spaces, the Lone Star State has become the biggest producer of wind power in the U.S. It now derives roughly 23% of its power on an annual basis from the renewable energy source.But a financial arrangement that helped wind companies thrive in Texas now threatens to crush many operators, after an unusually strong winter storm led officials to drastically raise wholesale prices in the state’s deregulated power market and caused blackouts that left millions in the dark for days.Many wind farms in Texas, to get construction financing, enter into long-term hedged contracts with financial institutions in which the wind farm operator agrees to provide a steady stream of electricity to the counterparty. If it cannot deliver electricity—because the wind isn’t blowing—the operator agrees to pay to purchase electricity on the wholesale market, or agrees to pay the counterparty to purchase it on its behalf.In return, the financial institution, often a Wall Street bank, agrees to pay a set price for the electricity. The bank can then resell the electricity on the state’s wholesale power market, potentially clearing a profit. When the wind is still and operators need to purchase power to fulfill their obligations, it typically costs somewhere between $0 and $50 per megawatt hour. But during the February blackouts, when some wind farms stopped running after ice built up on their fan blades, operators were forced to pay $9,000 a megawatt hour. (The average price in 2020 was $22.18.)Over a four-day span at such prices, a midsize wind farm could easily end up owing $50 million or more for electricity.Wind farms that owe their counterparties more than they can pay may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection or work out an arrangement.Alternatively, the Wall Street banks could go after the only asset available for repayment: the wind farm itself. The gallows-humor joke in the wind industry this week was that Wall Street could soon become the biggest wind player in Texas.Power prices skyrocketed in the state after the Texas Public Utility Commission, a three-member panel appointed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, set them at $9,000 per megawatt hour to try to spur power plants to make more electricity. The move didn’t result in generators producing more, however, as dozens of power plants and wind farms were down due to the freeze and a corresponding shortage of natural gas. In a filing with the Texas PUC, representatives of nine renewable-energy generators—including wind farms owned by BlackRock Inc., Danish investment fund Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Swiss asset manager Capital Dynamics and Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. —asked the state this week to reprice the power market between Feb. 15 and Feb. 19, the height of the blackouts.If nothing is done to unwind the power prices, they wrote, at least 46 projects totaling nine gigawatts of capacity “would suffer severe financial losses.” There are 31.9 gigawatts of wind power on the main Texas grid, and half or more were financed with hedged contracts, according to market observers.

Editorial: Blow, baby, blow. Wind is a fair-weather friend - but it delivers for Texas. www.houstonchronicle.com -Yes, wind is a fair-weather friend. It blows when it blows — not necessarily when we need it or want it. And until humans learn how to harness it and store its energy, its on-again, off-again nature is an inconvenient truth in Texas’ complex relationship with the affordable energy source.That doesn’t mean wind is unreliable. Here in Texas, we generally know the way the wind blows — when and how much, depending on the season and the time of day. Unexpected weather can thwart production forecasts, slowing blades in winter or turning them so fast at other times that they can power 60 percent of Texas’ energy needs and even risk overheating the whole electric grid.In the end, even a fair-weather friend is valuable when you’ve got a whole army of them. And Texas, which claims the largest wind capacity in the nation, has amassed quite an army. In 2019, the federal government counted more than 13,000 operating wind turbines here — generating jobs, tax revenues and power and zero carbon emissions.All that explains why, back in December, when Congress voted on a massive pandemic relief measure, it made sure to tuck in a familiar provision: a one-year extension of a tax credit for wind energy production — the 13th such extension since a Republican president first signed it into law in 1992. The credits have faced gale force opposition in recent days as Texas’ tragic power outages have left politicians looking for a scapegoat and fossil fuel advocates seeking to channel the gust of public skepticism about wind into competitive advantage.The opportunists have ignored, downplayed or simply lied about how the sudden shutdown of nuclear power and frozen natural gas pipelines played a far bigger role in the emergency than other energy sources in the mix. Out of the entire pie of energy expected in those critical days, wind’s percentage of unmet obligation was in the single digits.Texas derives roughly half its electricity from natural gas. But when the bitter cold disrupted natural gas supplies, people across Texas died. Our much-bragged-on electric grid simply won’t work when the temperatures dip below 10 degrees. That’s largely because pipelines and wellheads freeze up, Vistra Corp. CEO Curt Morgan told Texas lawmakers Thursday. “Let's be honest, they’re not built for the winter.”They should be, and so should the wind turbines. But Texas’ failure to require weatherization doesn’t change the fact that no state has benefited from the explosive growth of the wind industry more than Texas. If Texas really were a whole other country, it’d rank fifth in the world for installed wind power capacity. In their haste to tarnish, at least publicly, any alternatives to fossil fuels, many voices — from Gov. Greg Abbott to oil and gas industry advocates — seem to suggest energy sources present an either/or proposition and that Texans must pledge loyalty to one. That’s hot air. Despite our reservations about the mantra ‘drill, baby, drill,’ it coexists quite happily with ‘blow, baby, blow.’

The U.S. Grid Isn’t Ready For A Major Shift To Renewables | OilPrice.com - The blame game for the massive power outages in Texas last month continues. The dominant argument is that renewables had an ignorable part to play in the crisis, with natural gas and coal the indirect culprits due to their reduced availability resulting from infrastructure freezing and diverting supplies for heating purposes.Yet what the real problem actually lies in, not just in Texas but everywhere where energy demand is growing, is grid reliability and resiliency.“When it comes to the U.S. electrical grid, it is the largest interconnected machine on Earth: 200,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines and 5.5 million miles of local distribution lines, linking thousands of generating plants to factories, homes and businesses,” Westhaven Power, a California utility, told Oilprice.This is one massive system, and the sources that feed it electricity have become increasingly diversified. And while the shortage of natural gas was a big reason for the power outages in Texas, it was certainly not a shortage of gas that caused the blackouts in California last summer during a heatwave. Grid reliability has come to the fore because the decarbonization of electricity generation is not all fun, games, and zero-emission power.The U.S. grid, as it is now, cannot support the massive shift to low-carbon power generation, Westhaven Power says. Operators need better control of regional grids to be able to anticipate dangerous situations like the ones in Texas and California, but obtaining it would become trickier with more intermittent wind and solar feeding the grid, the utility explains. “What events in Texas and California demonstrate is the shortcomings of having highly-centralised power systems and the true value of resilience and flexibility in our energy grids, a value that is going to become even more vital as we continue to transition to renewable energy,” While it is one of the wiser rules in life that you should not put all your eggs in one basket, the dominant narrative among politicians seems to be that we have no other basket left but the electrification of everything. This means that we need to brace for the costs. Europe alone will need to spend $4.9 trillion on its grids, Morison notes, adding that as much as 45 percent of this investment will be used to strengthen the already existing infrastructure. In addition to strengthening the centralized grid, there is also a solution in boosting the share of distributed power systems, according to experts. This would alleviate the consumption load on the grid, potentially reducing the risk of overloads and outages. It might also reduce—slightly—the size of investments that need to be made in new transmission infrastructure to connect new solar and wind installations to the grid. “When our energy systems are pushed to their limits, through extreme weather changes as in both of these cases, and power generation sources are taken offline, the impact is felt at much greater scale,” IPG’s Gill told Oilprice. “If however, we have more segmented/distribution power sources, we lower our reliability on fewer large power sources, therefore reducing the number of towns and people affected when one or more of these go offline.”

The U.S. Grid Isn’t Ready For A Major Shift To Renewables - Yves here. The fallout from the Texas grid collapse during its deep freeze continues. The Texas independent energy market monitor Carrie Bevins has written the Public Utility Commission of Texas to recommend that $16 billion of charges by the grid manager Ercot be unwound because Ercot kept the $9,000 per megawatt hour price in place (versus a typical price of $25 a megawatt hour) for a full 33 hours after the power emergency was over. From the Financial Times:Retroactively revising prices “is not ideal”, she [Bevins] said, but “allowing them to remain will result in substantial and unjustified economic harm”.Such a move would require Ercot, which acts as a payment clearing house for the market, to claw back money already paid through its invoice settlement system, a process never carried out on anything akin to the scale that would be needed…At a Texas Senate hearing on Thursday, Kenan Ogelman, Ercot’s vice-president of commercial operations, said the state’s wholesale power market was in “distress”. About $1.7bn of power bills were unpaid, a figure he said was likely to keep rising.Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, the state’s largest and oldest power co-op, has been the largest casualty, declaring bankruptcy this week after failing to pay more than $2bn in bills it received from Ercot.The market watchdog’s recommendation echoed warnings from many companies — both retail providers and generators that had to buy power on the wholesale market to meet supply commitments — of further bankruptcies to come.  And Bloomberg:The erroneous charges exceed the total cost of power traded in real-time in all of 2020, said Bivens, who spent 14 years at Ercot, where she most recently was director of market operations before becoming its watchdog. “It’s a mind-blowing amount of money.”While prices neared the $9,000 cap on the first day of the blackouts, they soon dipped to $1,200 — a fluctuation that the utility commission later attributed to a computer glitch. The panel, which oversees the state’s power system, ordered Ercot to manually set the price at the maximum to incentivize generators to feed more electricity into the grid during the period of supply scarcity. The market monitor argues that Ercot should have reset prices once rotating blackouts ended because, at the point, the emergency was over…Bivens acknowledged the market monitor isn’t typically in favor of repricing, but noted in her letter to the commission that the move wouldn’t result in any revenue shortfalls for generators. Instead, the new price would reflect the actual supply, demand and reserves during the period.Of course, there’s plenty of whining. Again from Bloomberg:Texas Competitive Power Advocates, a trade association representing generators, said retroactively changing prices could discourage future investments in Texas’s electricity market. “Changing prices after the fact creates additional instability and uncertainty,” Michele Richmond, the group’s executive director, said in an email.Recall that the widespread power outage knock-on effects hit Mexico. From Reuters: The cold snap…knocked out power to more than 4 million people in Texas..It has halted about one-fifth of the nation’s refining capacity and halted nearly all oil and natural gas production in west Texas…Texas’s outages also affected power generation in Mexico, with exports of natural gas via pipeline dropping off by about 75% over the last week, according to preliminary Refinitiv Eikon data.

Texas will have to winterize its grid or interconnect with neighbors: experts (Reuters) - Texas should winterize its electric generation plants or consider connecting its grid with other parts of the country to help avoid another deadly blackout like the one last month that left people without heat, power or water for days, experts at a top energy conference said on Thursday. A winter-storm surge in demand saddled the companies that sell, transmit and generate electricity in the state with about $47 billion in costs as fuel prices soared. The political fallout has included the ouster of the chief executive of Texas’ power grid operator on Wednesday and a second round of contentious state lawmaker hearings set for Thursday. Power costs are likely “10 times what it would have been if we had identified what we needed and paid for it,” said Lawrence Makovich, vice president at IHS Markit, speaking at CERAWeek virtual conference. The flaw of Texas’ market system is that the low prices don’t cover the full costs of reliable generation, he said. Texas has diverse power supplies, but needs better standards for reliability, several experts said. That could include winterizing equipment, requiring natural gas-fueled plants to be able to run on liquid fuels for five days in case the natural gas system fails to deliver fuel, and connecting its grid with neighbors, they said. “We design a system great for the summer, but are we focusing on these one-in-ten year events?” asked Pat Woods, chief executive of Hunt Energy Network and past chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “We’re absolutely going to plan for that now.” Natural gas, wind, solar, coal and nuclear generation all had failures along with Texas’ natural gas production and pipelines. The only form of generation that outperformed expectations was hydroelectric, which isn’t practical to add in Texas, said Michael Webber, chief science and technology officer at Engie SA. Connecting the Texas grid with neighbors would benefit the state “99% of the time,” Webber said, adding, “We export every form of energy except the electron.”

Texas power cooperative files for bankruptcy, citing $1.8 billion grid debt  (Reuters) - The largest and oldest electric power cooperative in Texas filed for bankruptcy protection in Houston on Monday, citing a disputed $1.8 billion debt to the state’s grid operator. Brazos Electric Power Cooperative Inc, which supplies electricity to more than 660,000 consumers across the state, is one of dozens of providers facing enormous charges stemming from a severe cold snap last month. The fallout threatens utilities and power marketers, which collectively face billions of dollars in blackout-related charges, executives said. Unusually frigid temperatures knocked out nearly half of the state’s power plants in mid-February, leaving 4.3 million people without heat or light for days and bursting water pipes that damaged homes and businesses. Brazos and others that committed to provide power to the grid - and could not - were required to buy replacement power at high rates and cover other firms’ unpaid fees. The grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), on Monday said that $2.46 billion in bills went unpaid, underscoring the financial stress on utilities and power marketers. ERCOT acts in part as a clearinghouse, collecting from power buyers and paying those who provide the electrons. ERCOT triggered the squeeze when it pushed up spot-market rates to $9,000 per megawatt hour (mwh) over more than four days and levied huge fees for services. The service fees were 500 times the usual rate, industry executives said. Brazos executive Clifton Karnei, who sat on grid operator ERCOT’s board of directors until last week, told the federal court that Brazos “finds itself caught in a liquidity trap that it cannot solve with its current balance sheet”. Brazos said ERCOT’s $2.1 billion invoice was nearly three times the cooperative’s power costs for all of 2020. Brazos responded by issuing a notice of force majeure, rejecting the bills, Karnei’s statement said.

Texas Power Firm Hit With $2.1 Billion Bill Files for Bankruptcy -- The largest power generation and transmission cooperative in Texas filed for bankruptcy in the wake of power outages that caused an energy crisis during the winter freeze last month. Brazos Electric Power Cooperative filed for Chapter 11 in Texas after racking up an estimated $2.1 billion in charges over seven days of the freeze. Last year, it cost cooperative members $774 million for power for all of 2020. The magnitude of the charges “could not have been reasonably anticipated or modeled” and far exceeds Brazos highest liquidity levels in recent years, Executive Vice President Clifton Karnei said in a bankruptcy court declaration. The cooperative on Feb. 25 told state grid operator the Electric Reliability Council of Texas that it wouldn’t pay the $2.1 billion sum, and Karnei resigned from Ercot’s board of directors, court papers show.  Brazos had “no choice” but to file for bankruptcy, Karnei said. Chapter 11 protection lets Brazos keep operating while it works out a plan to repay creditors. The cooperative listed assets and liabilities of as much as $10 billion each. “Brazos Electric suddenly finds itself caught in a liquidity trap that it cannot solve with its current balance sheet,” Karnei wrote in the declaration. Aside from its power bills, the cooperative has more than $2 billion of debt outstanding, spread across $1.56 billion of secured notes and about $480 million under a credit line administered by Bank of America Corp., court papers show. Brazos had A+ credit grade from Fitch Ratings and an A from S&P Global Ratings prior to the bankruptcy. Brazos, a member-owned power provider serves customers across 68 Texas counties, stretching from just north of Houston to near the Texas panhandle, court papers show. The bankruptcy is likely to be one of many after four million homes and businesses went without heat, light and water during the deep winter freeze last month, causing as much as $129 billion in economic losses. The state’s broader market set a record for the most expensive week of power in U.S. history. The impact on individual companies is only starting to emerge, with some racking up huge losses while oil and gas producers saw their output halted. 

Duke Energy Renewables puts cost to replace power during Texas storm at up to $100M - Duke Energy Renewables spent an estimated $75 million to $100 million to replace power that its renewable energy projects — largely wind power — could not generate for customers during the February freeze in Texas. Duke Renewables President Chris Fallon says the final tally is not available yet as power companies and the Energy Reliability Council of Texas continue to gather information. The company included the estimated losses from power replacement in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing last week, but Fallon says the figures could change. “It will take us a couple of weeks to unwind, but Duke Energy Renewables has paid all its bills,” he says. All of the costs included in Duke’s 10-K annual filing relates to the costs for replacing power, not to any damage done to Duke’s wind and solar projects in Texas. “The way our contracts are structured, our requirement is that we must buy power on the market to replace contracted power we cannot produce,” Fallon says. Those purchases cost as much as $9,000 per megawatt hour, as power generation — mostly natural gas but also including other sources — went offline over five days of sub-zero temperatures from Feb. 11-15. The average price of power in the days before the storm was $50 per megawatt hour, according to ERCOT figures. Iced blades The grid operated by ERCOT is its own island without access to power from the grid elsewhere in the nation. That was a choice Texas made decades ago to prevent any federal regulation on its electric grid. That meant when power generation on ERCOT’s grid failed, less expensive power from surrounding states could not be purchased to replace it. Fallon is quick to point out it was the failure of traditional energy sources on the grid, which provide the vast majority of power on the ERCOT system, that caused many Texas customers to be completely without power for days during the winter storm.

Energy Secretary Granholm: Texas Outages Show Need For Changes To U.S. Power Systems - Newly confirmed Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm seized on the bruising winter weather that left millions of Texans without heat and electricity last week to press for reform of the state's power systems, arguing that pivoting to a clean energy economy can ensure a dependable grid and help create jobs. In her first interview with NPR since taking office, the former Michigan governor made the case for sweeping changes to the nation's energy markets in order to help meet President Biden's pledge to make the U.S. carbon neutral by 2050. Granholm, who won confirmation in the Senate by a vote of 64 to 35 on Thursday, said "there may have to be public-private partnerships to get initiatives off the ground," and pledged that for any jobs lost in the fossil fuel industry, there would be "more than a one-to-one replacement" in clean energy. Addressing the disaster in Texas, Granholm told Morning Edition host Noel King on Friday that one big lesson from last week's outages is that Texas needs to weatherize and winterize its energy systems. "Climate change is not going away, so it's only going to intensify those kinds of events," Granholm said. She said it may make sense for the state's famously independent energy infrastructure to be connected to the national grid "in some way, shape or form that allows its neighbors to help" in an emergency. "We all plan for redundancies and backups in our lives and this might be just a backup that Texas might want to consider at this time." Granholm, 62, responded to misinformation from some leaders in Texas, including Gov. Greg Abbott, blaming renewable energy sources such as wind turbines for the majority of the power failures. Wind and solar were only a "very small part" of what happened in Texas, she said, noting that a larger driver of the outages were coal piles that froze and natural gas lines that weren't weatherized or winterized.

Some Texas companies will claim major windfalls out of weather emergency - As millions of Texans went days without heat, light or water, as store shelves were emptied, as deaths blamed on the cold began to add up, Texas’ frenzied and deregulated electricity market opened the door for some companies to reap windfalls that may mount into the billions of dollars.The nation’s most deregulated energy economy was supposed to be a win for consumers and for energy companies nimble enough to do business in a bustling, cacophonous market. But the cold snap — rare but by no means unprecedented — shattered it last week, plunging consumers into misery and leaving a badly prepared and dislocated energy sector in pieces.“This is the classic definition of market failure,” said Aneesh Prabhu, an analyst with S&P Global. Wholesale prices for electricity spiked 300-fold, and for natural gas almost as much, and when supplies dwindled firms that had some of either commodity to sell were in line for tremendous short-term profits. But other companies are looking at stupendous losses. Nearly $50 billion in electricity sales were carried out last week through the Texas organization that acts as a clearinghouse — as much as the three previous years combined — and now await a sorting out of who owes what to whom, which will determine the winners and losers. The frigid temperatures dammed much of the flow of natural gas, and caused 356 electric power generators across the state to fail at some point last week. Blackouts spread until they covered 4 million households.And even as millions of Texans are still without water because of the power failures, several thousand residential customers have already been socked with towering bills for a week’s worth of electricity.“Texas has paid the price,” said Robert McCullough, an energy analyst based in Oregon whose firm calculated the $50 billion figure. “Well, some people in Texas are paying a very high price. And some are making out very well.” Comstock Resources, a company controlled by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, also took advantage of the spike in natural gas. “We were able to get super premium prices,” Almost two weeks after the storm walloped the state, Texas consumers and the general public still don’t know which companies profited during the storm or which companies failed to adequately prepare their equipment, with a few exceptions. That’s because much of the data will remain confidential, if held by private companies, and Texas officials have not made other data public.

Texas top utility regulator quits in fallout over blackouts - -- Texas' top utilities regulator resigned Monday in the widening fallout from blackouts triggered by an unusually heavy and widespread winter storm that left millions in the state without power and water for days. DeAnn Walker, the chairwoman of the Public Utility Commission, is the highest-ranking official to step down in the aftermath of one of the largest power failures in U.S. history. Gov. Greg Abbott appointed Walker to the commission in 2017, and she is one of two commissioners who used to work in his office. In a letter to Abbott, Walker said she accepted her role in the outages but that others should acknowledge their responsibility, including gas companies and lawmakers. “I believe others should come forward in dignity and courage and acknowledge how their actions or inactions contributed to the situation," Walker wrote. She resigned the same day Texas' largest and oldest power cooperative announced it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and as the state's attorney general launched an investigation into one electricity provider, Griddy, whose customers incurred massive bills during February’s winter storm. Abbott, a Republican, blamed the power failures on the state’s grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, commonly known as ERCOT. But the three-member commission appointed by Abbott has oversight authority over ERCOT. Abbott's spokesman Renae Eze said in a short statement that the governor thanks Walker “for her years of service to the State of Texas." The statement did not reflect on Walker's performance ahead of the outages. Walker struggled in two lengthy appearances before legislative panels investigating the state's electric grid breakdowns, the commission's response and the lack of communication with the public over the approaching storm. She initially said her agency has little control over ERCOT, but later said it has total control. Lawmakers questioned her knowledge of her agency’s authority and the decision to reduce or reassign enforcement staff charged with policing the utility companies.

AG sues Texas utility over customers' sky-high energy bills(AP) — Texas’ attorney general said Monday he’s suing electricity provider Griddy for passing along massive bills to its customers during last month’s winter storm. The lawsuit comes days after Texas’ power grid manager effectively shut down Griddy by revoking its access to the state’s electricity market. Griddy charges $10 a month to give people a way to pay wholesale prices for electricity instead of a fixed rate. But when temperatures plummeted well below freezing last month, wholesale prices spiked and Griddy customers were left with sky-high electricity bills. “Griddy misled Texans and signed them up for services which, in a time of crisis, resulted in individual Texans each losing thousands of dollars,” Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement. “As Texans struggled to survive this winter storm, Griddy made the suffering even worse as it debited outrageous amounts each day.” The lawsuit accused Griddy of violating the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act and seeks refunds for customers. The unusually heavy winter storm blanketed much of Texas with snow, knocking out electricity to 4 million customers and leaving many struggling to find clean water. Meanwhile, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, shifted about 10,000 Griddy customers to other utilities on Friday. Griddy said in a statement that ERCOT “took our members and have effectively shut down Griddy.” “We have always been transparent and customer-centric at every step. We wanted to continue the fight for our members to get relief and that hasn’t changed,” the statement said.

Texas electric industry financial crisis to grow as more costs surface (Reuters) - The Texas electricity market faces “insurmountable distress” as more gas and service bills come due, power industry officials said on Thursday at a hearing into financial fallout from the state’s February blackout. High prices for emergency fuel and power saddled the companies that sell, transmit and generate electricity in the state with about $47 billion in storm-related costs. Those costs have led to one bankruptcy and put two retail providers out of business in the state. Consumers facing bills for broken water pipes and food losses will see higher prices as costs get passed down through rate increases or fewer choices in providers, officials said. Future spending on weather defenses and grid linkages could add billions of dollars to the recovery. San Antonio’s city-owned utility expects about $1 billion in extra costs. “The market is facing a financial crisis and it’s a very severe financial crisis,” Catherine Webking, executive director of an industry lobby group told state lawmakers at a hearing in Austin on Thursday. “You’ll see more and more financial distress that is insurmountable,” as bills for natural gas and financial collateral come due in coming weeks, she testified. Vistra Corp., one of the largest utilities in Texas, forecast that buying natural gas at high prices triggered by the storm and selling power at fixed-rate prices will cut its profit by between $900 million and $1.3 billion, Vistra senior vice president Bill Quinn testified. Vistra’s power plants ran between 20% and 30% below capacity because of a lack of natural gas, Quinn said. “Getting gas to them was a challenge,” he said, noting all four of the utility’s gas providers could not meet their fuel commitments. On Wednesday, grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) disclosed 12 energy companies and two municipal utilities were overdue on $2.21 billion for power and services during February. Part of the deficit was covered by tapping internal grid accounts, but the rest eventually will be passed along to all grid users, straining those that have covered their initial bills, an official said. ERCOT has little means to cover the charges, said Kenan Ogelman, the grid’s vice president for commercial operations. It collects money from suppliers and pays generators, typically in four days. Texas may have to consider providing a financial backstop during future emergencies, he said in response to a question. “This event has demonstrated some consideration for a grid instrument,” Ogelman said. Multi-billion dollar service charges have led to collateral calls on top of the fuel bills. The short period to pay both has led to “cascading concerns,” he said. The decision to hold power rates high to keep power plants running even after the emergency passed was management judgment, he said. “In hindsight, it would look like that wasn’t needed. In real-time it looked like it was needed,” Ogelman said. ERCOT normally uses a bid system to set prices but officials decided to set a $9,000 per megawatt hour charge that was about 450 times the price before the storm. It held at that $9,000 level for about 90 hours, leading to 10s of billions of dollars in charges over five days. The state Public Utility Commission (PUC) on Friday is expected to vote on a proposal to claw back some charges for standby power and other services that were not provided. It could save grid users about $1.5 billion, Carrie Bivens, the state’s independent market adviser told the PUC in a letter on Thursday. She previously estimated the storm would push up state-wide power costs by $47 billion.

Texas Attorney General Sues Griddy for False Advertising in Wake of Winter Storm Price Hikes -Griddy, the Texas power supplier that’s made headlines recently forcustomers’ sky-high energy bills in the wake of widespread winter storm outages, has racked up another lawsuit. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the company for “false, misleading, and deceptive advertising and marketing practices” that he claims deceived customers with promises of cheap, “wholesale” energy prices.Griddy offers customers what it claims are “wholesale rates” for electricity with rates per kilowatt-hour tied to market prices, as opposed to the kind of fixed-rate plans provided by other retailers. The advantage is customers save a few extra bucks when energy is cheap. The disadvantage though, as many Texans are unfortunately finding out, is that these variable rates canskyrocket to as much as $9,000 per megawatt-hour when demand spikes because of, say, statewide power outages caused by a record cold snap like the one we saw last month. The fallout left customers stuck with bills of $5,000 or more for just five days of usage.The state received more than 400 complaints from Griddy customers about the surge pricing in less than two weeks, the lawsuit claims.“Griddy misled Texans and signed them up for services which, in a time of crisis, resulted in individual Texans each losing thousands of dollars,” said Paxton, a Republican, in a statement this week. “As Texans struggled to survive this winter storm, Griddy made the suffering even worse as it debited outrageous amounts each day.”“As the first lawsuit filed by my office to confront the outrageous failure of power companies, I will hold Griddy accountable for their escalation of this winter storm disaster. My office will not allow Texans to be deceived or exploited by unlawful behavior and deceptive business practices,” he continued.The lawsuit accuses Griddy of violating the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices-Consumer Protection Act because it “failed to adequately disclose the risks of its pricing model to its customers” and downplayed the potential consumercost of fluctuating energy prices. The suit particularly calls out Griddy’s use of auto-billing to automatically withdraw these exorbitant sums from its customers’ checking accounts, which lead to overdrawn accounts and overdraft fees that left Texans incapable of paying their other bills.Griddy is also facing a class-action lawsuit from pissed-off customers that are seeking $1 billion in damages. Earlier this week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas effectively shut down Griddy by revoking the company’s access to the state’s electricity market. Paxton has also announced an investigation into ERCOT along with almost a dozen power companies in the wake of this scandal.

Texas power grid names firms with unpaid bills, cuts off second (Reuters) - Texas’ power grid operator on Wednesday cited 12 energy companies and two municipal utilities for failure to pay their bills for power and services during February’s deadly blackout that has led to the ouster of the operator’s chief executive. The companies and utilities owe $2.21 billion for power and services during the storm, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which runs the grid providing electricity to 90% of state residents, said. In response to the blackouts, some of which ERCOT imposed to balance the grid after freezing generators went offline, the operator ousted Chief Executive Bill Magness, following calls for his resignation by state lawmakers. The winter storm created a surge in electricity demand that overwhelmed the grid at the same time the cold temperatures and other faults knocked out nearly half the state’s power plants. High prices for emergency fuel and power saddled the companies that sell, transmit and generate electricity in the state with about $47 billion in costs, an official estimated. Texas consumers will see higher prices as the storm-related charges and unpaid fees are passed along to remaining providers. An ERCOT spokeswoman did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Magness is still listed as CEO on the ERCOT website. He took on the role in 2016. ERCOT officials are scheduled to go before a Texas senate committee on Thursday that is delving into the grid failure and resulting financial crisis facing the state’s power industry. As part of its duties, ERCOT acts as a clearinghouse, collecting for power and paying the companies that provide the electrons. Defaulting companies can have their customers taken and their outstanding debts are reallocated to all grid users. The largest of ERCOT’s 14 debtors, Brazos Electric Power Cooperative Inc, filed for bankruptcy on Monday listing $1.8 billion owed to ERCOT. A Brazos spokesman did not reply to requests for comment. The second-largest ERCOT debtor, Entrust Energy Inc, on Wednesday became the second electric provider cut from the grid in five days. It owed nearly $234,000. Entrust did not reply to a request for comment after normal business hours.

Texas Overcharged $16 Billion for Power During Freeze, Monitor Says – WSJ --An independent market monitor said the Texas power-grid operator made a critical mistake that resulted in $16 billion in electricity overcharges last month, and recommended that the charges be reversed.The monitor concluded that Texas kept wholesale prices high for 33 hours longer than warranted as the state dealt with a major winter storm that led to power shortages and mass blackouts and should correct this mistake by retroactively repricing its wholesale power market for that period.A Public Utility Commission of Texas spokesman said the issue was slated for discussion at a scheduled meeting on Friday.A reversal of the charges would be a boon to many participants in the market—from retailers to electric cooperatives, wind farms to multistate generators—that suffered significant financial harm when they needed to buy power at the peak price of $9,000 per megawatt hour.The monitor’s determination caps a tumultuous week that has thrown the Texas electricity markets into a slow-motion meltdown. The chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, which regulates the markets, resigned. The chief executive of the nonprofit that runs the market was fired—not long after his organization, Ercot, said it was $2.5 billion short in payments. One of the state’s largest electric cooperatives filed for bankruptcy, citing $2.1 billion in debts it couldn’t pay. And several wind-farm operators and retail electric providers indicated they were under severe financial distress.

Texas grid manager responsible for $16B in overcharges, says watchdog --The grid manager for Texan energy markets overcharged some $16 billion for electricity during the winter storm that hammered the state’s independent power grid, according to a third-party monitor. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) set prices at a ceiling of $9,000 per megawatt hour during the emergency, but left the rate in place for two days longer than necessary, independent market monitor Potomac Economics concluded. The monitor, which the state hired, recommended the charges be reversed, according to Bloomberg. Prices came close to the $9,000 maximum on Day One of the blackouts but plunged to $1,200 soon after, which the state utility commission has said was caused by a technical glitch. ERCOT should have reset prices to the normal level as soon as the rolling blackouts concluded, Potomac said. The time frame for the correction request is midnight on Feb. 18 to 9 a.m. on Feb. 19. “The signal that we want to send is not that we changed the rules after the game’s been played,” Michele Richmond, executive director of trade group the Texas Competitive Power Advocates, told Bloomberg. “That doesn’t instill confidence in the markets.” The trade group represents power companies owning a total of 70 percent of ERCOT’s generating capacity. Resetting the rate retroactively would reduce some pressure on power companies in the state, which include Just Energy and EDF Renewable Energy. Both companies have previously asked the state’s Public Utility Commission to roll back the pricing for the days following the emergency. “If we don’t act to stabilize things, a worst-case scenario is that people will go under,” said Carrie Bivens, who serves as Potomac’s ERCOT independent market monitor director. “It creates a cascading effect.” Bivens, who worked at ERCOT for 14 years, said the “mind-blowing amount of money” ERCOT overcharged was greater than the entirety of the cost of energy traded in real-time for all of last year, according to Bloomberg.

Texas Opts Not to Fix $16 Billion Power Overcharge - The Public Utility Commission of Texas on Friday signaled it didn’t intend to reverse $16 billion in electric overcharges that an independent market monitor had flagged as stemming from the state’s weeklong blackouts.Commission Chairman Arthur C. D’Andrea said it was too difficult to reprice the energy markets and involved too many uncertainties.“It is impossible to unscramble this sort of egg,” he said.Mr. D’Andrea said there were so many hedges and private transactions outside the view of the commission that taking a step designed to help consumers might have unintended consequences. “You think you’re protecting the consumer and it turns out you’re bankrupting a co-op or a city,” he said.The commission met Friday morning to consider a recommendation from its independent market monitor, which concluded that Texas kept wholesale prices artificially high for 33 hours longer than warranted during a winter freeze last month, resulting in $16 billion in excess charges to consumers.

Texas power grid CEO fired after deadly February blackouts (AP) — Texas’ power grid manager was fired Wednesday amid growing calls for his ouster following February’s deadly blackouts that left millions of people without electricity and heat for days in subfreezing temperatures. Bill Magness, CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, becomes the second senior official to depart in the wake of the one of the worst blackouts in U.S. history. The state’s top utility regulator resigned Monday. Magness was given a two-month termination notice by ERCOT’s board in a meeting Wednesday night. The move came as the grid operator is now under investigation by the House Oversight Committee. “During this transition period, Bill will continue to serve as President and CEO and work with state leaders and regulators on potential reforms to ERCOT,” the organization said in a statement. Magness, who made more than $876,000 in salary and other compensation in 2019, was the target of much of the outrage over the blackouts that began Feb. 15 when a winter storm plunged temperatures into single digits across Texas, causing skyrocketing demand for electricity to heat homes. Grid operators unplugged more than 4 million customers as the system buckled, which Magness has said was necessary to avert an even more catastrophic blackout that could have lasted months. But the power did not flip back on for days for millions of residents, and the prolonged outages quickly escalated to a crisis of tragic proportions, as people trying to keep warm died of carbon monoxide poisoning and others froze to death. The storm and resulting blackouts have been blamed for more than 40 deaths in Texas, but the full toll may not be known for months. At the Texas Capitol last week, lawmakers investigating the outages laid into Magness for his handling of the storm. Over hours of testimony, Magness defended actions that he said kept the grid that serves most of Texas’ 30 million residents intact. “It worked from keeping us (from) going into a blackout that we’d still be in today, that’s why we did it,” Magness said last Thursday. “Now it didn’t work for people’s lives, but it worked to preserve the integrity of the system.”

Fight Continues Over Eminent Domain For Utility Line Across Missouri  - The Missouri Legislature is considering a law that would outlaw utility companies taking land through eminent domain, but the move is designed to block a specific project. The Grain Belt Express is a private venture that would take wind generated energy from Kansas and move it east across Missouri to power customers. The Missouri House passed a bill 123-33 last week that would make that project nearly impossible because landowners could refuse to sell and not be forced to by the government. Iowa and Illinois are considering similar measures. “We see that all the surrounding states are saying, hey, we don’t want to be a part of this,” said the bill’s sponsor, Rep. Mike Haffner, R-Pleasant Hill. “We have eight East Coast governors who say we don’t want your clean energy. So basically what’s happening here is that we have an electrical highway running through the heart of Missouri using agricultural land.” Proponents of the Grain Belt Express have said it could be a good way to increase use of clean energy and avoid power disruptions like the one in February that left millions of Texans in the dark. Haffner and other Grain Belt Express opponents said even the construction of the proposed transmission line will damage hundreds of acres of farmland. “When you compact soil, you can rip it up with a chisel plow, you can work it to death, but in some cases it’s going to take years and years and years for that land to be productive again,” Haffner said. The measure now goes to the Missouri Senate for debate.

Wyoming coal mines eyed for disposal of old windmill parts (AP) — The slow, steady turning of thousands of wind turbines continues to pace a revolution in the U.S. domestic energy generation portfolio, or perhaps millions of small revolutions. With wind, solar and other green sources of electricity making up a growing share of America’s power generation, states are facing an increasingly worrisome dilemma of dealing with the massive amounts of waste created by the wind industry. Now that wind has emerged as the nation’s fastest-growing energy sector, the gold standard for green energy is revealing a dirty secret of its own with massive amounts of industrial waste, the Gillette News Record reports. Although made of fiberglass to reduce weight and cost, the huge blades that rotate the turbines can be longer than the wing of a large jumbo jet and weigh more than 5 tons each. As the industry adds thousands of new turbines a year, the problem of disposing of worn-out parts and blades has escalated, especially for local municipalities. When photos of thousands of used wind turbine blades at the Casper landfill went viral last year, local and state officials took notice, said state Speaker of the House Eric Barlow, R-Gillette. That’s because relatively small local governments like the ones in Wyoming can’t handle adding that volume of waste in their landfills for long. As federal policies and tax incentives continue to spur wind development, Wyoming’s unique weather landscape will continue to make the Cowboy State a leader in building and expanding wind farms. And as residents have expressed concern about the impact those farms can have on landfills, Barlow was drawn to a simple potential solution. He suggested burying the blades in the huge Powder River Basin coal pits as companies reclaim the land. “Now, the state of Wyoming and communities pay to dig holes to bury refuse,” Barlow said. “I don’t know that we need to subsidize that for every material. This material is one that if we can get the transit situation down, we wouldn’t fill our municipal landfills with industrial waste.” The hole solution That’s what prompted Barlow to propose House Bill 129 in the last legislative session, which passed. The bill allows private coal producers to use inert waste created by the wind industry as fill for reclamation of the mines. Because the turbine blades are fiberglass and contain no harmful chemicals, there’s no danger to the environment to bury them in the pits.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: No more 'charging deserts'? Utilities launch EV coalition -- Wednesday, March 3, 2021 -- Six major electric companies in the Southeast and Midwest have formed a coalition to boost electric vehicle charging stations throughout those regions.

Top U.S. utilities collaborate to build electric vehicle charging stations (Reuters) - Six major utilities unveiled a plan on Tuesday to add electric vehicle fast chargers to connect major highway systems across United States, as they look to cater to the burgeoning electric vehicle market. The Electric Highway Coalition – made up of American Electric Power, Dominion Energy D.N>, Duke Energy, Entergy Corp, Southern Co and Tennessee Valley Authority - is looking to provide charging stations within their service territories from the Atlantic Coast, through the Midwest and South, and into the Gulf and Central Plains regions. The initiative comes as President Joe Biden has made boosting electric vehicles a top priority and pledged to build 550,000 new EV charging stations. Automakers including Tesla Inc, BMW and General Motors plan major expansions in EV production. “The path to cleaner transportation is a robust charging infrastructure along the nation’s major highways,” said Lang Reynolds, director of Electrification Strategy for Duke Energy. ADVERTISEMENT “Range anxiety is a barrier to more EV adoption. This coalition can erase those obstacles and help deliver the benefits of EV ownership to consumers,” Reynolds added. American Electric Power said it is working with select customers across its service territory to help them understand the benefits of electrifying their own vehicle fleets.

To go electric, America needs more mines. Can it build them? (Reuters) - Last September, in the arid hills of northern Nevada, a cluster of flowers found nowhere else on earth died mysteriously overnight. Conservationists were quick to suspect ioneer Ltd, an Australian firm that wants to mine the lithium that lies beneath the flowers for use in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. One conservation group alleged in a lawsuit that the flowers, known as Tiehm’s buckwheat, were “dug up and destroyed.” The rare plant posed a problem for ioneer because U.S. officials may soon add it to the Endangered Species List, which could scuttle the mining project. Ioneer denies harming the flowers. Their cause of death remains hotly debated - as does the fate of the lithium mine. The clash of environmental priorities underpinning the battle over Tiehm’s buckwheat - conservation vs. green energy - is a microcosm of a much larger political quandary for the new administration of President Joe Biden, who has made big promises to environmentalists as well as labor groups and others who stand to benefit by boosting mining. To please conservationists, Biden has vowed to set aside at least 30% of U.S. federal land and coastal areas for conservation, triple current levels. But that aim could conflict with his promises to hasten the electrification of vehicles and to reduce the country’s dependence on China for rare earths, lithium and other minerals needed for EV batteries. The administration has called the reliance on China a national security threat. The administration will be forced into hard choices that anger one constituency or another.

Sacred Apache land 'on death row' in standoff with foreign mining titans – The rugged patch of land known as Oak Flat sits in the Tonto National Forest. To the San Carlos Apache Tribe, the 740-acre swath of oak groves and sheer cliffs is sacred ground, a place where they have gone for centuries to hold religious ceremonies and communicate with the Creator."No different than Mount Sinai," said Wendsler Nosie Sr., former chairman of the San Carlos Apache.But Oak Flat is on a path to destruction.The land is scheduled to be transferred to Resolution Copper, a company controlled by two foreign mining giants, and turned into one of the largest copper mines in the country. The transfer was set in motion by an eleventh-hour provision slipped into a 2014 defense bill by Arizona's two Republican senators at the time.The poverty-stricken San Carlos Apache Tribe is fighting back in court, alleging the land belongs to the tribe and holds special religious significance. But even they worry the path to victory is slim. Resolution Copper has poured $2 billion into the project and has had the U.S. government on its side.The dispute has turned into a David-vs.-Goliath-style standoff, drawing in environmental groups and reviving centuries-old questions over land rights involving American Indians. The San Carlos Apache reservation, about 130 miles east of Phoenix, is among the poorest in the country. Four of every 5 families with children live below the federal poverty line, and the unemployment rate is 30 percent, according to a University of Arizona study.The reservation is on the outskirts of Tonto National Forest, which is named for the Tonto band of Apaches who lived in the area until the U.S. Army cavalry forcibly removed them in the 1870s.Many Apaches became prisoners of war. An untold number refused to surrender and instead jumped to their deaths at a ridge now known as Apache Leap.The Oak Flat area has been considered a holy place for thousands of years, the home of spiritual beings known as Ga'an. Apaches go there to pray, to seek personal cleansing and to hold ceremonies that connect them to their ancestors. It is also a popular campground and hiking destination. But Oak Flat has long been prized by mining companies. Beneath its surface lies a fortune — one of the largest copper deposits in the world.

Biden's 'Buy America' plan may hit a solar wall -- Monday, March 1, 2021 --President Biden has pledged to make the United States a leader in clean energy manufacturing as part of his efforts to jump-start the economy and create "millions" of green jobs. But when it comes to boosting U.S. production of solar parts and modules — key technologies in Biden's plans to zero out electricity-sector carbon emissions — the administration faces an uphill battle. Asia has maintained its status as the dominant solar manufacturing hub despite steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. What's more, critics have said protectionist U.S. trade policies such as tariffs have backfired, hampering domestic solar deployment and increasing costs. "This is the sector that is most clearly dominated at the moment by Chinese players," said Ethan Zindler, head of Americas at BloombergNEF, during a webinar Thursday on clean energy supply chains hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Solar advocates say there's good reason for the Biden administration to be interested in manufacturing: Producing more solar parts domestically could ease the transition to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, a campaign pledge of Biden's that will require a massive build-out of renewable energy. In addition, shipping solar parts and materials around the world contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, said Desari Strader, president and founder of Violet Power, a company that last year announced its intention to create an integrated solar manufacturing supply chain in the United States. "If you truly care about climate change, you put your energy source near your supply chain and feedstock," Strader said. Industry leaders say they see signs that Biden is serious about addressing the issue. Biden has signed an executive order aimed at strengthening the Buy American Act, which instructs the federal government to give preference to domestic manufacturers when procuring goods and services. The order closed loopholes in the BAA that allowed some companies doing business overseas to benefit from the policy and bolstered enforcement tools to ensure that the government works with firms that employ people in the United States, according to the White House. While executive action alone may not be enough to expand domestic manufacturing of solar panels, industry leaders have welcomed Biden's order.

Stabenow, Manchin push tax credits for clean energy projects - U.S. Sens. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., and Joe Manchin, D-WVa., on Monday introduced legislation to provide billions in tax credits for factories built or retooled to make clean or advanced energy products.The legislation would authorize $8 billion in tax credits for companies making parts and products that reduce carbon emissions.  Stabenow's office said that could include manufacturers making batteries for electric and electric-hybrid vehicles, semiconductor chips and components for solar panels or wind turbines. The tax credit would allow up to 30% of the investment to be written off.Half of the funding would be dedicated to projects in communities where coal mines or coal-fired power plants have been shut down. An earlier version of the tax credit written by Stabenow and used during the recession in 2009-10 and again in 2013did not dedicate funds in those areas.That provision, though, could greatly help coal mining communities in West Virginia, and Manchin's sponsorship — and possible support from more moderate or conservative senators from other coal mining states — could aid its passage.

U.S. energy regulator focuses on access to renewable power to reduce climate impact (Reuters) - The head of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said on Thursday he is focused on enabling the construction of long-distance power transmission lines to help bring more renewable power onto the grid. Richard Glick, FERC’s chairman, told the virtually-held CERAWeek conference that new power lines would help bring electricity generated at solar and wind farms in the countryside to populated cities. “If we are going to really meet our targets, whether they’re set by the federal government or states ... we’re going to need to access the great remotely located renewable resources we have,” said Glick. He did not mention specific projects, but one effort is the SOO Green HVDC Link. It hopes to install high voltage direct current underground cable along existing rail corridors to deliver 2.1 gigawatts of power from Iowa wind and solar projects to Chicago. The project needs FERC to update how grid operators connect new transmission projects, among other things. FERC for the most part does not have authority over the siting of transmission lines, which sometimes acts an impediment over transmission development, Glick said. But the panel does have authority over cost allocation and transmission planning. “Those are the particular areas I think we’re going to be focused on in the near future to figure out,” ways to incentivize planning to build long distance lines, he said. Biden has pledged to put the country on a path to decarbonize the grid by 2035. Glick, a Democrat, and the rest of the five-member FERC could help lay the groundwork for that especially after June, when his party is expected to regain a 3-2 majority. In recent years FERC passed a rule, which Glick dissented from, that removed the review of greenhouse gas emissions of new natural gas pipelines from environmental assessments. While Glick has been criticized by some as being against all gas pipelines, “that simply isn’t true,” he said. The DC Circuit, a federal court that reviews FERC decisions, ruled twice in the last four years that FERC had to review the emissions impact of the pipelines before going forward. That has led to delays and extra costs. “I think it’s in the interest of pipeline developers to work with us as well to develop a good methodology to assess climate change impacts,” Glick said. Last week, the White House restored a key climate measure calculating the cost of climate change in federal permitting called the social cost of carbon. The price estimate will be about $50 a ton of carbon dioxide, and a working group will work to develop a new estimate. Glick said the social cost of carbon could be one way to measure the climate impact of natural gas pipelines.

Inside Clean Energy: Warren Buffett Explains the Need for a Massive Energy Makeover - Warren Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders are an entertaining read, as if your great-uncle was an investing savant.In this year’s edition, released on Feb. 27, Buffett has something to say about the transition to clean energy and the necessity of making vast investments in interstate power lines.The message, about the challenges and opportunities of building a cleaner grid, has been communicated before by many others, but not in quite the same way, and not by someone in a position to do something about it on the scale that Buffett can. But it would be incorrect to say that his company is at the forefront of addressing climate change. His holdings are so large and in so many sectors that he is simultaneously financing the transition to clean energy while continuing to have deep connections to fossil fuel industries.  Buffett said in his letter that Berkshire Hathaway Energy is in the middle of an $18 billion project, begun in 2006 and continuing until 2030, to rework and expand the electricity grid in the West. This includes PacifiCorp’s Energy Gateway plan that is in the process of building 2,000 miles of interstate power lines throughout the West, and NV Energy’s Greenlink plan, with nearly 600 miles of lines in Nevada.The projects are indicative of how “our country’s electric utilities need a massive makeover in which the ultimate costs will be staggering,” Buffett said.“Historically, the coal-based generation of electricity that long prevailed was located close to huge centers of population,” he continued. “The best sites for the new world of wind and solar generation, however, are often in remote areas.” Berkshire Hathaway Energy, or BHE, is building transmission lines to carry electricity from remote areas to population centers. But, as the company has learned, such projects are difficult.“Billions of dollars needed to be invested before meaningful revenue would flow,” he said. “Transmission lines had to cross the borders of states and other jurisdictions, each with its own rules and constituencies. BHE would also need to deal with hundreds of landowners and execute complicated contracts with both the suppliers that generated renewable power and the far-away utilities that would distribute the electricity to their customers. Competing interests and defenders of the old order, along with unrealistic visionaries desiring an instantly-new world, had to be brought on board.”In those few sentences, he has encapsulated why transmission line proposals can get bogged down in years of delays and debate. He also managed to throw in a dig at “unrealistic visionaries,” which seems to refer to some of the most assertive environmental advocates. Suffice it to say that many people working in the renewable energy technologies BHE’s power lines will serve would see his comparison of the “old order” of fossil fuels and “unrealistic visionaries” as a false equivalency.

Coal-fired Merrimack Station in Bow wins another year of funding - The coal-fired power plant in Bow has won another year’s funding from a program designed to guarantee future electricity supplies. The two units at Merrimack Station, soon to be the last coal-fired plant in New England, will be paid about $1.08 million per month from mid-2024 to mid-2025 in return for promising to produce up to 438 megawatts of electricity whenever needed. The money will come out of electric bills and will be paid whether or not the units are called on to produce electricity. The plant will get paid more for any power that it generates. Merrimack Station won the payment with its bid under what is known as the Forward Capacity Market run by ISO-New England, which oversees the six-state power grid. Virtually all wholesale power producers, from Seabrook Station to dams to gas-fired plants to wind farms, bid into the auction. Merrimack Station has won similar payments during all previous auctions, which are held every year to cover a 12-month period three years in the future. The news comes on the heels of the near-collapse of the Texas power grid during a record cold snap. The forward capacity auction is designed to protect New England from a similar situation by propping up power plants that would otherwise shut due to financial pressure, keeping them available to step in during peak periods such as heat waves or cold snaps. Coal plants around the country are shutting because gas-fired and renewable electricity is much cheaper and underbids them in the power market. The regions’ two remaining coal plants have been generating up to 5% of New England’s electricity at times this month, as snow and calm weather has limited production of solar and wind power, and natural gas has been diverted for heating. New England’s other coal plant, Bridgeport Harbor in Connecticut, is scheduled to close this July. The news that Merrimack Station won another year’s support will be a disappointment to its opponents, who argue that the auction is a subsidy which keeps the most polluting of all types of power plants. The 448-megawatt Merrimack Station is owned by Granite Shore Power, an investment group that bought it from Eversource in 2017. It operates mostly as a “peaker plant,” providing power only occasionally to meet peak demand. The power plant is a major payer of property tax in the town of Bow.

Lax Oversight Of Coal Plant Demolitions Could Leave Illinois Communities Vulnerable -Environmentalists in Illinois worry that having few regulations for coal-fired power plant demolitions will increase the chance for a toxic disaster when these facilities are dismantled. Since 2009, 12 of the state’s 23 remaining coal power plants have closed, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Five more, all owned by Vistra Energy, are set to close this decade, according to an announcement from the company. One of those is in Baldwin, 40 miles southeast of St. Louis. Six others will either close some generating units or have no official retirement dates. “We’re hitting this big transition moment; all these power plants are going to close,” said Andrew Rehn, a civil engineer at Prairie Rivers Network, which works on water, land and pollution issues across Illinois. “We just don’t have a plan, and it’s coming across the state.” The plant closures leave behind property with massive buildings and smokestacks laden with heavy metal byproducts, like mercury, arsenic and lead, from decades of burning coal. Most are still standing.  Ahead of last month’s demolition of the Wood River Power Station’s main building, local residents and environmental groups worried what might happen because the property’s owner, Commercial Liability Partners, avoided talking with local residents and elected leaders, said Toni Oplt, chair of the Metro East Green Alliance. Her small group of Madison County residents sent emails, made phone calls and submitted “contact us” forms on the company’s website after first noticing the plant was being taken apart in 2019. “After about the fifth email, I got a response that said, ‘We’re doing everything we’re supposed to do, thank you very much,’” Oplt said. “They would never meet with us, they would never talk with us.”

Blackjewel’s Bankruptcy Filing Is a Harbinger of Trouble Ahead for the Plummeting Coal Industry - - A federal bankruptcy judge in West Virginia could soon decide whether to allow the Blackjewel coal mining company, once the nation’s sixth-largest coal producer, to shed responsibility for thousands of strip-mined acres, setting up a potential crisis over clean-up and reclamation of the land. Bankruptcy Court Judge Benjamin Kahn will hold a hearing Wednesday in Charleston on the West Virginia-based company’s liquidation plan, whichcalls for the abandonment of nearly 200 mining permits in Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and Tennessee. Most of them are in eastern Kentucky, where the future of nearly 8,000 acres of strip-mined mountains hangs in the balance, as shown in court filings and testimony in the massive bankruptcy case that began in 2019.Both the state of Kentucky and the companies that issued bonds guaranteeing clean-up and reclamation of the dynamite-blasted landscape warned in court proceedings that there might not be enough money to do all the required work. With other U.S. coal-mining companies in similar financial straits and demand for coal plummeting, Blackjewel’s situation is a harbinger of the trouble ahead in coal country. Coal mining companies are required to post bonds to cover the costs of reclamation should they go bankrupt. They are also supposed to reclaim idled mine sites contemporaneously, as they are mining new areas. As the industry rapidly loses market share and continues its lurch toward the financial abyss, part of its legacy could involve scarred, strip-mined landscapes left behind by serial bankruptcies and government programs that may not be able to step in and finance clean-up and reclamation, environmental and citizens groups fear. “There just is not the capital left in the coal industry to satisfy all the remaining outstanding reclamation obligations,” said Peter Morgan, a Sierra Club attorney who closely follows coal-industry bankruptcy cases nationally. “These companies have been allowed to kick the can down the road time and time again, and now they are running out of road.” Morgan said he sees the Blackjewel case as “the tip of the iceberg,” with other major bankruptcies on the horizon. “There will be a lot more Blackjewels,” he said.

ENERGY POLICY: Manchin, Stabenow float $4B coal community investment bill -- Monday, March 1, 2021 --Two senior Senate Democrats introduced legislation this morning to make available as much as $4 billion in clean energy manufacturing tax credits for communities affected by coal mine or power plant closures.The legislation from Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) would revive the so-called 48C tax credit to bolster the private-sector transition to a clean energy economy.Manchin has made the clean energy manufacturing incentive a priority for his chairmanship as he looks to protect West Virginia and other states long dependent on fossil fuels. And he's likely to use it as a bargaining chip when Democratic leaders seek his support for broad climate action."Tax credits to help incentivize a transition to a cleaner energy future should be targeted to drive reinvestment in the communities who are most impacted by this transition, and that's exactly what the 'American Jobs and Energy Manufacturing Act' does," Manchin said during a Zoom press conference.The legislation would provide $8 billion for companies to make investments in manufacturing facilities that could increase domestic production of renewable energy, storage, electric vehicles, advanced nuclear reactors and carbon capture technologies. The Department of Energy would have a hand in determining which companies qualify. Of that $8 billion, $4 billion would be specifically set aside for coal communities caught in the grips of energy market changes.

How private equity squeezes cash from the dying U.S. coal industry (Reuters) - Private equity firms are proving there’s still plenty of profit in the U.S. coal industry despite a decade of falling demand for the fossil fuel. They are spending billions of dollars buying coal-fired plants on the cheap - and getting paid even when they are not providing power. Since the end of 2014, at least five U.S. private equity firms have bought coal plants in markets where regulators pay them to be on standby to provide emergency power when demand surges with extreme hot or cold weather, according to a Reuters review of U.S. regulatory disclosures and credit-rating agency reports. The lucrative investments illustrate how fossil fuels will remain an important part of the energy mix - and continue spinning off cash for investors - even years after demand for them peaks as the world transitions toward cleaner energy sources. The need for reserve power was on display during the utility crisis this month in Texas - the only U.S. grid system that operates without such an emergency system. A cold snap knocked out several of the state’s generating plants and triggered widespread blackouts, leaving a wake of human suffering including several dozen deaths. The so-called capacity payments are given out in most U.S. power markets, and regulators tend to favor coal-fired generators that store heaps of coal on site when other power sources might be disrupted. In the Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM), which has the largest standby market, capacity revenue payments average more than $100 per megawatt per day - an insurance policy that costs about $9 billion a year and aims to make sure the grid’s 65 million customers avoid blackouts during heat waves and Arctic blasts. “The capacity power market is a certain source of revenue for coal plants that might otherwise be uneconomical,” said Sylvia Bialek, an economist at New York University’s Institute for Policy Integrity.

Breakdowns, shutdowns and cost overruns plague Xcel’s Comanche 3 coal-fired power plant, investigation finds -- Comanche 3, Xcel Energy’s state-of-the-art coal-fired power plant, has been plagued by operational, equipment and financial problems leading to more than 700 days of unplanned shutdowns since the plant went online in 2010, according to a report by the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. The report by the PUC staff found that the cost of electricity from the plant — $66.25 for each megawatt-hour (MWh) – was 45% more than forecast and the annual operating costs were 44% higher than projected at $34.8 million a year. The PUC undertook the assessment after two mechanical failures led to the unit being closed for all of 2020 and parts of 2021 – a total of 373 days. “What we are doing is a bit of public and private review of the utility’s performance,” former PUC Chairman Jeffrey Ackermann said in approving the study in October. “We are closely reviewing the Colorado Public Utilities Commission’s report on Comanche Unit 3 in Pueblo. Meanwhile, we are committed to the continued safe and reliable operation of the plant through its proposed early retirement in 2040,” Xcel said in a statement. The utility — Colorado’s largest electricity provider with 1.5 million customers — said it continues to look for new ways to learn and improve the way it runs its generation fleet. The first incident started on Jan. 13, 2020 when a loud noise and vibrations began to come from a low-pressure turbine. The plant was down until June 2 for repairs, costing $4.2 million, and inspections. When the unit was started up again there was a failure in a six-way valve that led to a loss of lubricating oil used to keep elements of the turbine from overheating. It is considered a “system critical to the operation and well-being of the turbine,” the report said. The report said that the design of the valve, maintenance and inadequate communication between the control room and operations staff all played a role in the failure. “The company acknowledged that the six-way transfer valve was never dismantled and inspected since the plant went commercial in 2010,” the report said, nor can it get a replacement valve since it is obsolete. “The company knows it cannot get replacement parts,” the report said. “The company has no policy with regard to the use of obsolete equipment in the power plant.” The cost of the June incident was $20.4 million and Xcel had to buy $14.4 million in replacement power, though subtracting the amount it would have cost to run Comanche 3 it brought the cost of the power purchases down to $9.5 million.

State lawmakers pitch bill to regulate electrical grid for reliability  A new piece of legislation could give coal-fired power plants a lifeline. Filed on Friday in Wyoming’s Legislature, House Bill 155 would require state regulators to consider how a coal or natural gas power plant closure could affect the reliability of the power grid before approving its retirement. Prior to giving a utility a green light to retire an aging power plant unit, the Wyoming Public Service Commission — the state agency regulating certain utilities in Wyoming — would have to consider if the closure would increase the risk of power outages. “Before authorizing or approving the closure of an electric generation facility as proposed in a rate case, integrated resource plan or other submission to the commission, the commission shall consider the effect on available reliable, dispatchable electricity to Wyoming customers and on a nationwide basis,” the bill states. Under the proposed bill, utilities would also be held liable for damages or injuries caused by power outage, under certain circumstances. The bill aims to ensure Wyoming’s electrical grid maintains sufficient “baseload power,” or a source of continuously available electricity supply, especially as companies invest in more and more renewable energy. “The radical Left is attempting to destroy our Wyoming way of life by cancelling fossil fuels,” Gray said in a written statement. “Reliability on the grid would be destroyed by the radical Left’s actions. A reliable energy grid heats our homes and powers our businesses. (House Bill) 155 is designed to stop the radical Left from doing to Wyoming what they’ve already done to Texas, Colorado, and California. We saw in Texas what will happen if the radical Left wins on this issue.” Opponents of the bill said it could mean keeping coal-fired power plants in operation longer than makes fiscal sense for ratepayers.

Green Bay Senator Supports the Expansion of Two Rivers Nuclear Plant  -- State Senator Eric Wimberger of Green Bay has joined colleagues from across Wisconsin in sending a letter to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, expressing his support for an extension of the operating license for the Point Beach Nuclear Plant thru 2050. The current license is set to expire in 2030. In a news release, Wimberger said that the Two Rivers-based nuclear plant, “provides clean, safe energy and good jobs for the people of Northeast Wisconsin.” He also pointed to the struggles the state of Texas suffered in February, saying ”having a diverse range of power sources is vital. Any serious discussion regarding reducing dependence on fossil fuels and increasing reliance on cleaner forms of energy must include nuclear energy.” The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is currently reviewing the application for license renewal, which was submitted in November 2020, with a final decision not expected for another 18 months.

Callaway Energy Center still at zero power -- Two months after a generator issue caused an unplanned shutdown at Callaway Energy Center, the plant is still not operating. Related to the shutdown is the caravan of vehicles that crept east Monday on Missouri 94, complete with flashing lights, flags and "oversize load" written in bold block letters. The large, tarp-covered load was characterized by Ameren Missouri Site Vice President Barry Cox as a "significant component." "We decided that significant components did need to be replaced," Cox wrote in an email. "Those are long lead-time materials that need to be manufactured, installed and tested so that we can ultimately bring Callaway back safely and sustainably." The plant experienced three unplanned shutdowns — also known as "scrams" — during the last three quarters of 2020. Those scrams, in addition to lower than normal hours of critical operation at the plant over the year, will result in additional oversight from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The NRC determines oversight based on a variety of performance indicators, sorting each plant in the country into five different columns on an "Action Matrix." Most plants are currently in column one of the Action Matrix chart, indicating baseline inspections. According to a Feb. 10 letter from the NRC to Ameren Missouri, the Callaway reactor has been moved to column two, which warrants a supplemental inspection. Only three other reactors in the United States are currently in column two. None of the country's reactors are in columns three, four or five, which indicate degraded or unacceptable performance.

Michigan AG moves to intervene in Palisades nuclear plant transfer - — Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel is objecting to the transfer of a nuclear power plant and a spent waste storage site on Lake Michigan, arguing that a Florida nuclear energy equipment company planning to take ownership of both sites lacks adequate financial resources and has underestimated decommissioning costs.On Wednesday, Feb. 24, Nessel filed a petition to intervene in the transfer of the Palisades Nuclear Plant near South Haven and the Big Rock Point fuel storage site near Charlevoix with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which is reviewing plans to transfer both site licenses to Holtec International of Jupiter, Fla., by the end of this year.Both sites are presently owned by Entergy Corp. of Louisiana, which is attempting to unload them after shutting down the 50-year-old Palisades plant in 2022. Holtec says it can accelerate the decommissioning and wants the NRC to approve its transfer application by December. In her petition, Nessel alleges that Holtec “underestimates the license termination, site restoration, and spent fuel management liabilities” at both sites.  Although she supports “prompt, thorough and safe decommissioning, as well site restoration and fuel management,” Nessel said she’s concerned Holtec’s plan “endangers our environment and health, and potentially leaves our residents to bear the costs of proper cleanup.”  Both sites occupy the Lake Michigan shoreline. The Big Rock was razed in 1997 and little remains there besides a spent nuclear fuel storage facility.Palisades would close next year and Holtec wants to move the spent fuel to a new temporary atomic waste repository that would be built in New Mexico if the regulatory commission gives its approval.  Nessel alleges Holtec’s cost estimates assume the U.S. Department of Energy will begin taking title to spent nuclear fuel by 2030 and that the company will get approval to use nuclear decommissioning trust funds for Palisades site restoration and waste management. Holtec suggests it can finish decommissioning Palisades and release the site, which borders Van Buren State Park, for unrestricted use by “approximately 2041,” the filing states. Such a timeline makes no sense given the longstanding difficulties the federal government has faced in developing a permanent nuclear waste depository, Nessel argues. During a confirmation hearing in February, new U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said she opposes restarting the licensing process for the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada. Assuming federal authorities will begin accepting spent nuclear fuel is “not reasonable given DOE’s current progress in licensing a repository,” Nessel writes.

Consent required to bury nuke waste under new bill  — Legislation that would require the federal government to receive consent from state, local and tribal entities before constructing a permanent repository for nuclear waste was filed in the House on Tuesday by Democrat Dina Titus of Nevada. Companion legislation was filed in the Senate by Catherine Cortez Masto, with support from Sen. Jacky Rosen, both Nevada Democrats. Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, urged Congress to pass the bills and provide a workable alternative to storing nuclear waste in Nevada. Titus has filed the bill in each session of Congress to prevent a restart of the process to review an application by the Department of Energy to receive a license to build a repository at Yucca Mountain, northwest of Las Vegas. The legislation has never been approved, despite the failure of the federal government to accept the waste and store it as required by law.

Quake shifts 53 water tanks at Fukushima plant - The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant says it has found that 53 tanks storing radioactive wastewater were shifted from their original locations by a powerful earthquake earlier this month. But it says there have been no leaks from the tanks. Tokyo Electric Power Company inspected 1,074 tanks after a magnitude-7.3 quake struck off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture on February 13. TEPCO discovered that 53 tanks had moved from their original locations by 3 to 19 centimeters. TEPCO treats the water used to cool molten nuclear fuel at the damaged reactors before storing it in tanks. But the water still contains radioactive substances. The company says it also found that five sections of piping connecting the tanks shifted more than the limit recommended by the manufacturer. But it says it has so far found no cracks or other abnormalities in the piping. It plans to conduct further examinations. TEPCO also laid out a plan to repair two seismometers at the No.3 reactor building next month. It came to light on Monday that the devices went out of order partly because of heavy rain last July. As a result, they were unable to collect data when the quake struck.

Vipal Patel takes the reins of House Bill 6 investigation as acting U.S. attorney for southern Ohio - – Vipal Patel, a longtime federal prosecutor, will take over the lead in the largest bribery investigation in Ohio. Patel became the acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Ohio on Monday, replacing his former boss, David DeVillers, whose last day was Friday. Former President Donald Trump appointed DeVillers. President Joseph Biden will name a successor in the coming months, based on Ohio Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown’s recommendation. He takes over the investigation into House Bill 6, the piece of legislation that has shaken the Ohio Statehouse. The scandal broke last summer, and federal prosecutors already have gained three guilty pleas, though authorities say that is just the start. FirstEnergy and its affiliates stand accused of funneling $60 million in bribes to Larry Householder, the former speaker of the Ohio House, and four others to pass a $1.3 billion legislative bailout of two nuclear plants, according to court records. A subsidiary of FirstEnergy once owned the aging plants in Oak Harbor and Perry. Neither FirstEnergy nor any of its employees have been charged in the investigation as of Monday. The Akron utility says it is cooperating in the investigation. Householder has denied the allegations. His political strategist, Jeffrey Longstreth, and lobbyist Juan Cespedes have pleaded guilty, as has a nonprofit at the heart of the scandal, Generation Now. Sentencing dates have not been set. Patel, 53, had served as the office’s first assistant for years, a job that required him to oversee its daily operations in Cincinnati, Columbus and Dayton. He has been a federal prosecutor since 2000, first in Los Angeles and later in Dayton. He has worked in civil, criminal and appellate divisions. He said in an interview last week that his office has ongoing local and state investigations. Since last February, it has prosecuted three members of Cincinnati City Council on corruption-related charges.

FirstEnergy attributed utility regulator's actions to $4.3 million payment --A state utility regulator in Ohio acted “at the request or for the benefit” of FirstEnergy “as a consequence of receiving” a $4.3 million payment from the utility company shortly before their appointment, FirstEnergy disclosed in statements found buried in agreements it reached with lenders in November. Christopher Pappas, the independent executive director for FirstEnergy board, later disclosed on an earnings call last month that the $4.3 million payment improperly resulted in “amounts collected from customers,” as did other transactions that Pappas told financial analysts “could” have included money for lobbying and political activities.FirstEnergy first privately disclosed the $4.3 million transaction to lenders on or before November 17 of last year, according to agreements signed by the company’s treasurer Steven R. Staub and lenders. The agreements were dated and went into effect one day after the FBI searched a Columbus townhouse owned by Samuel Randazzo, the chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, on November 16. Randazzo resigned days later, after FirstEnergy first publicly disclosed the payment in a quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 19. Copies of FirstEnergy’s November 17 lender agreements were included as exhibits to the quarterly report, and can be viewed here and here.  FirstEnergy’s initial disclosures to lenders about the payment were found in statements on the bottom pages of the wordy November 17 agreements. Those disclosures included key details,highlighted below, later omitted from the company’s other more widely reported public statements about the transaction:

Ohio Senate votes to repeal nuclear subsidies in House Bill 6 - cleveland.com -- The Ohio Senate voted unanimously on Wednesday to repeal the nuclear subsidies that are one of the central components of House Bill 6, the bailout law that’s at the center of an ongoing federal corruption probe. Senate Bill 44, sponsored by two Northeast Ohio lawmakers, keeps other portions of the bill in place, but repeals the nearly $1 billion in subsidies that were to have been sent to two Ohio nuclear plants owned by a former FirstEnergy subsidiary. The bill also would eliminate the fees on Ohioans’ electric bills that pay for the subsidies, which are currently on hold due to two court rulings. The bill is now headed to the House for consideration. Senators said Wednesday that the plants’ owner, Energy Harbor, has emerged from bankruptcy proceedings in a strong enough financial position that the company no longer needs the subsidies. They also said repealing them would help the legislature move on from the HB6 scandal while saving Ohioans money on their power bills. Senate President Matt Huffman, a Lima Republican, has noted that Energy Harbor has said the bailout might become a liability. That’s because the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled in late 2019 that if power generation companies receive state subsidies like the ones offered by HB6, the commission would make it harder for those companies to sell electricity from the two nuclear plants. “This is something that I feel will undo an awful lot of damage that has been done not only to our institution (the state legislature) but to the whole state of Ohio,” Sen. Rob McColley, a Toledo-area Republican, said on the Senate floor Wednesday. Federal prosecutors say the plants’ former owner, Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp., and its affiliates got HB6 passed with $60 million in bribes to former House Speaker Larry Householder. Householder was arrested after the investigation was made public last July. He has pleaded not guilty and denied wrongdoing, but two others who were charged in the probe, plus a pro-Householder political action committee, have pleaded guilty to corruption charges. Prosecutors say the $60 million was funneled through political groups that supported Householder’s bid for speaker, pushed for HB6′s passage and protected it against a repeal effort. Householder remains in the House, and although Cupp has called for his resignation, he has not been able to get enough Republican votes to remove him from the chamber.

Southwestern Drills First Ohio Utica Well after Montage Acquisition - Appalachian pure-play Southwestern Energy Co. plans to keep year/year production and spending flat in 2021 even as it assumes a larger asset base and entry into Ohio with its acquisition of Montage Resources Corp. The exploration and production company laid out its vision for the year last week, joining peers in announcing a plan aimed at prioritizing free cash flow (FCF) generation, “disciplined investment” at maintenance levels and debt reduction. “Our maintenance capital program will hold fourth quarter 2021 production flat with our fourth quarter 2020 level including the Montage assets,” said CEO Bill Way. “Due to our strategy, investments will be focused on the highest return projects at strip prices. And given the strength of our inventory, we expect to have activity in all of our core operating areas.” In addition to its core areas in Northeast Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia, the company gained a foothold in Ohio with the acquisition of Montage, a tie-up that created Appalachia’s third largest oil and gas producer with more than 1 Tcfe of production anticipated this year. Way said the company moved a rig into Ohio and has since drilled its first dry gas Utica Shale well there. Southwestern plans to spend $850-925 million this year and intends to exit 4Q2021 producing about 3.05 Bcfe/d. Management said the company would bring 75-90 wells to sales, including up to 15 in the Ohio Utica’s dry gas window. Capital investment would be split evenly between Southwestern’s dry and liquids-rich acreage across Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The company spent $899 million last year. This year’s budget is based on the assumption that Henry Hub prices will average $2.77/Mcf and West Texas Intermediate prices will average $50.00/bbl. The company expects to generate more than $275 million of FCF after having delivered $55 million in FCF in 4Q2020.

Commissioners anticipate oil and gas progress  — The Belmont County Board of Commissioners answered questions about the future of oil and gas activity during their Wednesday meeting. Guests included Bill Lample of the Dillies Bottom area along Ohio 7, near the site of a potential ethane cracker plant, who asked questions about whether the new presidential administration might prove harmful to fracking locally. He referred to executive orders from the office of President Joe Biden, including revoking a permit for a Keystone XL pipeline. The proposed pipeline would be nearly 1,200 miles from Canada to the Gulf Coast.“All these executive orders on the oil, pipelines and drilling, is it going to affect Belmont County?”Lample said.“It’s hard to say an exact yes or no,” Belmont County Commissioner Jerry Echemann said, adding the order is aimed at federal land. “I don’t think it will. Obviously I think we have a president now who is less friendly to oil and gas than the previous president, but I don’t think we’re going to be impacted too much by the executive orders that Biden put into place, because the main ones are on federal land, and none of our fracking is on federal land,” Echemann elaborated after the meeting.“The only federal land we really have nearby is the Wayne National Forest,” he said, naming the forest located in southeastern Ohio among the Appalachian Mountains, the southern edge of Monroe County on Ohio 7.“I don’t think that in and of itself will hurt it. The big challenge now are the low energy prices. They’re wanting to see energy prices come up, so that they can do more drilling and be more aggressive at it,” Echemann said.Lample said, “In Dillies Bottom and around Moundsville, there’s a lot of trailer parks. A lot of trailers.”“These certainly are not the best of times for the oil and gas industry,” Echemann said, adding he hoped for a better turn. “It’s all a function of price, when you look at the activity going on,” Commissioner J.P. Dutton said, adding there had been a slow-down even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. “I think if we see prices creep up a little bit.”

Work begins on controversial Hamilton County Duke Energy pipeline - Work has begun on a controversial natural gas pipeline that will run through much of Hamilton County. Duke Energy's Central Corridor Pipeline has been in the works for years, and the utility company's local spokeswoman, Sally Thelen, said it will mean better service to its customers. "It's critical that we get this pipeline in," she told WCPO, calling it the "backbone of the system" in Southwest Ohio. "Hamilton County is our most populated county that we serve, so it’s critical that we get this pipeline in so that we can continue to do that." Once completed, the pipeline will span 13 miles from Golf Manor to Sycamore Township's northern annex adjacent to Sharonville. The pipeline will also run through neighborhoods in Cincinnati, Amberley Village, Evendale, Blue Ash, Reading and Sharonville. Work began Monday at the pipeline's northern terminus after years of pushback from neighbors who live along the route, as well as from county leaders. In 2016, then-Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune called the pipeline a bad idea. "They're bad for Hamilton County. They're bad for the neighborhoods they run through. They're bad for Duke (Energy)," he said. As recently as 2019, residents were still concerned. "We listened to some of the feedback we’ve gotten from neighbors, customers, local officials . We’ve reduced the size and the pressure of the pipeline. So we are very confident in using the latest building materials and monitoring capabilities that are out there now. This pipeline will be very safe," she said, adding that the energy company has experience installing infrastructure like the Central Corridor Pipeline.

Revolution pipeline back in service as Energy Transfer and regulators reach yet another deal -Natural gas began flowing Monday in the Revolution pipeline, 2½ years after it slid down a rain-soaked Center Township hillside and burst into flames.Since then, Texas-based Energy Transfer Corp. and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, its primary regulator, have been battling over whether the pipeline owner had done enough to prevent the explosion in Beaver County and whether it was doing enough now to avoid another.The company was prohibited from repairing the ruptured portion of the pipe while it worked to stabilize the hill behind Ivy Lane, which stubbornly kept slipping, and on other steep slopes along the 40.5-mile project designed to ferry gas from fracked shale wells through Butler, Beaver, Allegheny and Washington counties.The company’s inability to shore up sliding soil along its right of way after the explosion Sept. 10, 2018, and trouble with construction on the much larger Mariner East pipeline corridor prompted the DEP to issue a permit ban that was lifted in January 2020. When Energy Transfer finally got the go-ahead to reroute the broken piece of pipe onto flatter ground and prepared to put Revolution back in service in the fall, the DEP intervened again, in November.Regulators found unstable slopes that hadn’t been properly secured and ordered the company not to fill the pipe with gas and, if it had, to empty it — a sign that regulators weren’t fully sure of the status of Energy Transfer’s plans.Energy Transfer took that order to court.Late last month, the company signed a settlement agreement with the DEP that said the Revolution pipeline could restart March 1 with increased slope monitoring. It also gave the company 60 days to submit a permanent stabilization plan for a steep hill near Penny Hollow Road. The DEP said the company has shown that the pipeline now is overbuilt to the point that it has a high safety factor. While the DEP previously insisted that the entire right of way must be permanently stabilized before gas could flow again, the settlement gives Energy Transfer more time to reach that goal. In the meantime, instruments installed at certain slopes will measure stability, groundwater levels and ground movement.DEP inspectors, who have visited the pipeline 43 times so far this year, have continued to mark outstanding violations but recorded progress in their inspection notes. The settlement deal also includes a $125,000 civil penalty. That follows a record $30.6 million penalty that the DEP fined Energy Transfer in January 2020 as part of another consent order and agreement that also called on the company to repair stream and wetland damage.

 Groups Oppose Pittsburgh-Area Frack Waste Injection Well - Environmental groups are asking Gov. Tom Wolf to revoke state permits for a fracking waste injection well in the Pittsburgh suburb of Plum. It’s one of a handful of new injection wells permitted to operate in Pennsylvania by the EPA. The wells receive fluid drilling waste created by fracking and gas production.  The groups are worried that these waters — too toxic to be processed at municipal wastewater plants — will threaten private well water, the nearby Allegheny River, and that the high-pressure injection could induce earthquakes. In a letter to Gov. Tom Wolf, the groups said the well “would present devastating risks to several downstream Allegheny River public drinking water systems, including the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority” which provides drinking water to hundreds of thousands of people. The letter points to a 2016 U.S. Geological Survey study that found oil and gas waste from an underground injection well in West Virginia had contaminated a nearby creek. The groups warn fracking waste could seep into groundwater and tributaries to the Allegheny River through a well casing failure or underground fissures caused by nearby coal mines and gas wells. Representatives from Delmont, Pa.-based Penneco Environmental Solutions, the company developing the well, did not respond to requests for comment. The company’s website states that the process of underground injection is safe and “is crucial to environmental protection and energy production.” In April 2020, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection gave Penneco a permit to pump 54,000 barrels of waste (42 gallons per barrel) a month into the Murrysville sandstone, an 80-foot thick rock layer 1,900 feet below the ground. A spokeswoman for Wolf said the governor would look into the issue, but said there wasn’t much he could do. “(T)he governor does not have the authority to himself revoke or suspend permits,”

Stopping Radioactive Water: Officials Want to Ban Oil & Gas Injection Wells at Pennsylvania Headwaters to Block EPA Permit - When you zoom in to Clara, dirt roads appear. And between wide, tree-covered hills, houses pop up, where 181 people live in Potter County, 30 minutes from the New York State border.  Clean water in Clara is essential to local cattle, horses, wildlife, world-class fisheries, and residents who, without access to a public water system, all rely on wells or springs. Water from Clara pours out of the Appalachian Mountains as part of the Triple Divide: where rainfall splits from one mountain range to three sides of the country. Only four places on the continent have this kind of hydrological reach.But there’s more than wildlife and farms in Clara. Hundreds of conventional and unconventional (a.k.a. fracking) oil and gas wells are cut into the landscape. And that means there’s oil and gas waste, too.In a rusty, grayish-blue building down a dirt road surrounded by trees and backed by beautiful mountains, sits Roulette Oil & Gas. It’s a 15-minute drive from Clara Township. The company operates 271 conventional and 3 unconventional oil and gas wells in Potter County.Conventional wells are drilled vertically to reach shallow reservoirs of oil and gas. It’s a simpler and older process than unconventional, horizontal, hydraulic fracturing today, commonly known as “fracking.” Regardless of the well type, drilling creates large amounts of wastewater, that industry and regulators often describe with harmless names like “salt water”, “brine”, or “produced water.”In September 2020, Roulette Oil & Gas submitted a permit application to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which asks to convert one of their conventional wells in northwest Clara Township into a Class II-D injection well to dispose of brine from 110 of Roulette’s conventional wells in the area. That means shooting wastewater thousands of feet underground at high pressure into a cavern that once held fossil fuels.A Public Herald review of EPA’s permit authorization for Roulette Oil & Gas found that it doesn’t exclude injecting waste from the three unconventional wells operated by the company. The permit allows for the injection of 15,500 barrels of wastewater a month, and it can also be modified — leaving it open to accepting waste from more oil and gas operators in the future.

Fractured: Harmful chemicals and unknowns haunt Pennsylvanians surrounded by fracking - part 1 - 13-year-old Gunnar Bjornson r lives with his mom, dad, older brothers and younger sister about 35 miles south of Pittsburgh in the aptly-named community of Scenery Hill, where narrow country roads wind through shady woods that open up onto hilltop vistas of rolling fields. The hills are peppered with farmhouses, fruit orchards, and fields of corn and squash. The roadsides are punctuated by little white churches, farm stands, and dirt driveways marked with hand-painted signs like "The Jones's" and "Hidden Family Farm."  Scenery Hill is in Washington County, the most heavily fracked county in Pennsylvania, with about 1,584 wells in its 861 square miles, so the idyllic country roads are also flanked with signs directing oil and gas well traffic: "No well traffic beyond this point," "Staging area ---->," "Truck traffic: No engine breaks," and ads that read, "We buy mineral rights!"  August 19, 2019, was a typical day for Gunnar—he played drums, took the dog outside, and argued and joked with his siblings. But unbeknownst to him and his family, Gunnar had a number of harmful chemicals coursing through his body.  A urine sample taken from Gunnar that day contained 11 harmful industrial chemicals, including benzene, toluene, naphthalene, and lesser-known chemicals linked to a range of health effects including respiratory and gastrointestinal problems, skin and eye irritation, organ damage, reproductive harm, and increased cancer risk.  These chemicals are found in things like gasoline, pesticides, industrial solvents and glues, varnishes, paints, car exhaust, industrial emissions, and tobacco smoke. They're also commonly detected in air emissions from fracking wells. In Texas, researchers found that babies born near frequent flaring—the burning off of excess natural gas from fracking wells—are 50 percent more likely to be premature. In Colorado, the state Department of Health found that people living near fracking sites face elevated risk of nosebleeds, headaches, breathing trouble, and dizziness. In Pennsylvania, researchers found that people living near fracking face increased rates of infant mortality, depression, and hospitalizations for skin and urinary issues. Studies of fracking communities throughout the country have found that living near fracking wells increases the risk of premature births, high-risk pregnancies, asthma, migraines, fatigue, nasal and sinus symptoms, skin disorders and heart failure; and laboratory studies have linkedchemicals used in fracking fluid to endocrine disruption—which can cause hormone imbalance, reproductive harm, early puberty, brain and behavior problems, improper immune function, and cancer.

Fractured: Buffered from fracking but still battling pollution - part 4  —On a balmy evening in September of 2019, eight women gathered around a conference table in a small office about 25 miles southeast of Pittsburgh. -- The group chattered and laughed through the presentation until Ann LeCuyer pulled up a map of the planned route for the Mariner East 2 Pipeline, sending a brief hush through the room. "It's so close to my house!" someone exclaimed. "Look, I'm in the blast zone and I didn't even know until now." Mariner East 2 is one of three pipelines (along with Mariner East 1 and Mariner East 2X) being constructed to carry highly flammable natural gas liquids—liquid components of natural gas that have been separated out—350 miles from the Utica and Marcellus Shale plays in eastern Ohio, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and across Pennsylvania to processing facilities at Philadelphia ports. From there, the end products will be carried overseas by ship for use in plastics production. (Ethane, a byproduct of fracking, is used to manufacture plastics.) Executive Director of Protect PT Gillian Graber of Trafford explains a map of community and natural gas infrastructure to Protect PT members during an event at the non-profit's Harrison City, Pennsylvania, headquarters. (Credit: Connor Mulvaney for Environmental Health News) The project is orchestrated by Sunoco's parent company Energy Transfer LP, which also owns the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline. The Mariner East pipeline projects have been rife with accidents, spills, and controversy, in part because Pennsylvania doesn't have a state agency that oversees the placement of such pipelines. The planned route runs across people's yards and within a half mile of 23 public schools and 17 private schools, which worries residents due to the company's safety record: Between 2002 and the end of 2017, Energy Transfer LP pipelines experienced a leak or an accident every 11 days on average. Pipeline construction in Pennsylvania has already resulted in sinkholes, polluted waterways on public land, and an explosion in a town 35 miles west of Pittsburgh that destroyed a house. At least 25 other sites along the proposed pipeline route have been identified as being at risk for similar accidents. The Pennsylvania Utility Commission is fighting in court to keep its calculations on potential damage if such accidents occured secret, even though a recent investigation by Spotlight PA found many communities in the "blast zone"—the areas adjacent to the pipeline that could be engulfed in flames in the event of a pipeline explosion—lack adequate emergency response plans.

Fractured: Distrustful of frackers, abandoned by regulators - part 3 —For nearly a decade, Bryan Latkanich has been telling anyone who'd listen that allowing two fracking wells to be drilled on his farm is the worst mistake he's ever made. He's a single father on disability who leased his land in 2010 at the height of the fracking boom, thrilled to have two wells 400 feet from his home in exchange for what he thought would be millions of dollars in royalties, only to run into problem after problem. The drilling disturbed more land than had been agreed to or permitted, which he alleges damaged the foundation of his home. He caught workers illegally pumping water out of a pit into the woods behind his property. His well water became undrinkable and he and his son Ryan, who was 2 years-old when the wells went in, developed a rash of ongoing, mysterious health issues. The royalties were a pittance compared to what he expected. Chevron, which owned and operated the two wells, denies any responsibility for these problems, and Bryan has gotten few answers from the state agencies he's called upon to investigate. "I was a total cheerleader for this industry at the beginning," Bryan told Environmental Health News (EHN). "Now I just want to make sure no one else makes the same mistake I did. This has ruined my health and my kid's health and destroyed my farm. It has ruined my life."  In fracking towns across the state and country, people like Bryan have struggled to get answers about what's happening on their land, in their communities—even in their bodies. The state agencies tasked with overseeing the industry and responding to citizen complaints about pollution and health issues are often under-budgeted, understaffed, and overwhelmed. In Ohio, for example, a three-year investigation published in September 2020 by environmental advocacy group Earthworks showed that the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and Ohio Department of Natural Resources failed to act on 39 percent of public complaints filed regarding air pollution from the oil and gas industry. The consequences are exemplified by a 2018 incident: After an explosion at an Exxon fracking well in Belmont County, Ohio, the site leaked methane at a rate of about 132 U.S. tons an hour for 20 days, ultimately emitting more of the powerful greenhouse gas than the entire oil and gas industries of France, Norway or the Netherlands do in an entire year. Methane is 84 times more climate-warming than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.

Pennsylvania Families Exposed to Unusually High Levels of Oil and Gas Industry Chemicals, Report Finds – DeSmog --A groundbreaking four-part report by Environmental Health News (EHN) offers new scientific evidence that living near oil and gas development can expose people to a wide array of hazardous and carcinogenic chemicals — not just those living near shale drilling and fracking, but also those living near older conventional oil and gas wells.  The two-year EHN investigation sought to fill in a gap in the scientific understanding of fracking and chemical exposures by undertaking some research themselves, under the guidance of scientific advisors and with approval from an Independent Review Board. They collected air, water, and urine samples from five Pennsylvania families and sent the samples off to researchers at the University of Missouri for analysis. Those tested also wore personal air monitors for up to eight hours on most days samples were collected. The testing cost the publication an average of $12,000 per family, reporter Kristina Marusic said. Researchers also collected data about the families' activities and other potential sources of chemical exposure before and during the sampling.  The researchers discovered striking levels of chemicals associated with oil and gas and their “biomarkers,” substances produced when the body processes chemicals — like mandelic acid, which can be evidence of exposure to ethylbenzene or styrene, or hippuric acid, a biomarker for toluene. The compounds they found biomarkers for, which also included benzene, can cause irritation of the skin, nose, and eyes, central nervous system problems, and liver and kidney damage; some are also carcinogens.  “We were pretty shocked at some of these really high levels of these biomarkers in kids,” Marusic told Allegheny Front, adding that she was also surprised to see that some of the highest readings were also found in people who lived further away from shale wells but close to conventional oil wells. That said, the investigative reporting was intended to be a pilot project, she added, not proof that that the chemicals found pose a threat to people's health. “A lot of times the purpose of a pilot study is to say, ‘Hey, I think there might be something here. We should really look into this further,” she said. “This investigation represents the first comprehensive body burden analysis of residents living in areas targeted by fracking,” Dr. Sandra Steingraber of Concerned Health Professionals of New York, which publishes a compendium of research into the “risks and harms” associated with unconventional oil and gas, said in a statement. “As such, it fills an important data gap and strongly suggests that the toxic emissions from fracking operations are entering the bodies of nearby residents at levels known to cause harm.”

Sky-High Levels of Fracking Chemicals Detected in Children's Bodies -While the hazards of fracking to human health are well-documented, first-of-its-kind research from Environmental Health News shows the actual levels of biomarkers for fracking chemicals in the bodies of children living near fracking wells far higher than in the general population.The research fills a gap in the science between the health harms experienced by those living near frackingand the known harms caused by fracking chemicals: whether fracking chemicals were actually in people's bodies. They are. Of the southwestern Pennsylvania families who participated in the study, those who lived closer to fracking wells had higher levels of fracking chemicals or their biomarkers than those who lived far away.One nine-year-old boy had biomarkers for toluene, which can damage the nervous system or kidneys, 91 times higher than the average American. Another had biomarkers for ethylbenzene and styrene, 55 times higher than the average American. Exposure to ethylbenzene and styrene is linked to skin, eye, and respiratory tract irritation, reproductive harm, endocrine disruption, and increased cancer risk. The research is part one of a multi-part series by Environmental Health News exploring the multifaceted "body burden" of fracking.As reported by Environmental Health News: In Texas, researchers found that babies born near frequent flaring—the burning off of excess natural gas from fracking wells—are 50 percent more likely to be premature. In Colorado, the state Department of Health found that people living near fracking sites face elevated risk of nosebleeds, headaches, breathing trouble, and dizziness. In Pennsylvania, researchers found that people living near fracking face increased rates of infant mortality, depression, andhospitalizations for skin and urinary issues. Studies of fracking communities throughout the country have found that living near fracking wells increases the risk of premature births, high-risk pregnancies, asthma, migraines, fatigue, nasal and sinus symptoms, skin disorders and heart failure; and laboratory studies have linked chemicals used in fracking fluid to endocrine disruption—which can cause hormone imbalance, reproductive harm, early puberty, brain and behavior problems, improper immune function, and cancer.

Investigation Into Chemical Exposure From Fracking in Pennsylvania Provokes Call for Rapid Phaseout - "While financial analysts, policymakers, and massive corporations squabble over the finer points of the fracking debate, families living amidst the wells day in and day out live in constant fear about what the industry might cost them—if they had another child, would they need to worry about birth defects? Are these exposures increasing their kids' cancer risk? Would it be safer to move to a place far away from all of this, even if it would also mean being far from their extended families, friends, and communities? And even if they could move, how far would they have to go to feel safe?"Those are just some of the questions facing the western Pennsylvania families featured in a report published Monday by Environmental Health News (EHN), a publication of the nonprofit Environmental Health Sciences. Five families from the region participated in a pilot study on the chemicals commonly found in emissions from fracking sites.  Concerned Health Professionals of New YorkSandra Steingraber of Concerned Health Professionals of New York, a group that has long sounded the alarm about the impact of fracking—which largely affects poor and rural households—responded by calling for an end to the process."Consider[ed] together with the results of previous studies, the findings of this multi-part investigation serve as a powerful moral indictment of the Pennsylvania Department of Public Health, which has long privileged gas industry interests over protecting the health of Pennsylvania residents," Steingraber said. "Pennsylvania's children should not be used as laboratory rats in an uncontrolled human experiment involv[ing] toxic exposures.""In light of today's revelatory investigation, Concerned Health Professionals of New York reiterates our call: The risks and harms of fracking to public health are inherent to its operation," Steingraber added. "The only method of mitigating fracking's grave threats to public health is a rapid, comprehensive phaseout of fracking." Aided by scientific advisers, EHN conducted a two-year investigation intended to "provide a snapshot of environmental exposures in people living near fracking wells and help pave the way for additional research on a larger scale." Over the course of nine weeks in 2019, EHN collected a total of 59 urine samples, 39 air samples, and 13 water samples from five nonsmoking local households, all of which had at least one child. We found chemicals like benzene and butylcyclohexane in drinking water and air samples, and breakdown products for chemicals like ethylbenzene, styrene, and toluene in the bodies of children living near fracking wells at levels up to 91 times as high as the average American and substantially higher than levels seen in the average adult cigarette smoker.The chemicals we found in the air and water—and inside of people's bodies—are linked to a wide range of harmful health impacts, from skin and respiratory irritation to organ damage and increased cancer risk.

When the Kids Started Getting Sick - -On an evening in August, 2008, Cindy Valent learned that her twenty-year-old son, Curt, was in the hospital. Valent, who was fifty-three, with frosted hair and a matter-of-fact manner, lived in Cecil, a small town in southwestern Pennsylvania, which has become a hub of the natural-gas industry. For nearly a year, Curt, a junior at Robert Morris University, had been complaining that his shoulder hurt. That weekend, while with his girlfriend, Erin, he began running a fever and having chest pains. “I thought it was no big deal,” Valent told me recently. In the evening, routine imaging at the hospital revealed a spot near his lung. A few weeks later, Curt was diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma, a virulent form of bone cancer, which had spread to his lungs, liver, lymph nodes, and spleen.mWhen Curt began chemotherapy, she cut her hours so that she could stay with him in the hospital during treatment. At one point, she got a medical bill for 1.3 million dollars and wasn’t sure that her insurance would cover it. “We live by the seat of our pants, and without the seat of our pants, we’re screwed,” she said. Kendra Smith, the mother of one of Valent’s preschool students, heard about the situation and offered Valent a more flexible job at a law firm where she and her husband, John, were partners. At the time, the Smiths were beginning to handle cases dealing with environmental issues. When Valent joined, John Smith was representing a local library board in a dispute over the proposed location for a new building. Soil tests had revealed that the planned site was contaminated with benzene, an industrial chemical and known carcinogen, but the county’s development authority wanted to save money by removing only a little of the pollutant before construction. The Smiths helped the library fight for a more extensive cleanup. In December, 2010, while on a snowboarding trip, Curt asked Erin to marry him. On Monday, he finished his college coursework and handed in his last papers. Valent didn’t spend a lot of time thinking about why Curt had gotten sick. It seemed useless to dwell on it. But, in 2011, she learned that Kyle Deliere, a local twenty-five-year-old, had also been diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma. The Valents knew Kyle because he had grown up about a half mile from their house, and because he played with the Cecil Township Youth Baseball Association; Curt had played pitcher with the group as a child, and, as he grew older, was an occasional umpire. Valent thought nothing of the coincidence. Then, in December, 2013, she learned that her sixteen-year-old neighbor, Luke Blanock, who also played with the association, had been diagnosed with Ewing’s. As Luke grew sicker, his battle with cancer gained national attention: in early 2016, his wedding to his high-school sweetheart was filmed for an episode of “Inside Edition.” He died that August, and the Pittsburgh Pirates held a moment of silence in his honor during a game.

Pennsylvania Saw Modest Increase in Unconventional Natural Gas Production Last Year, but Activity Down - Pennsylvania unconventional natural gas production surpassed 7 Tcf last year, up 3.9% from 2019, the lowest growth rate on record for a full year of production, according to the state’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Fourth quarter production increased 2.9% year/year to 1.8 Tcf, flat with the annual growth level in the third quarter. Quarterly production growth hit a peak in 2018 of 18.6%, but decelerated for eight consecutive quarters until plateauing at 2.9% in 4Q2020. Activity across the Appalachian Basin has declined as producers have cut budgets and scaled back operations. Demand was hit hard last year by the Covid-19 pandemic and investors have demanded more discipline from the upstream sector. The IFO said 99 horizontal wells were spud in the final three months of 2020, the lowest quarterly spud count since 2Q2016. Preliminary data for 2021 also show that the number of wells spud in January and February decreased by roughly 25% from the same time last year. The number of horizontal producing wells, which account for more than 99% of all unconventional production, increased by 5.9% to 9,868 in the fourth quarter. The IFO also tracks results from vertical wells drilled to unconventional formations, but they account for a marginal share of quarterly volumes. “This growth rate is the smallest year-over-year increase in quarterly horizontal producing wells on record,” the IFO said. “Decelerating growth in producing wells is due to less drilling activity and older wells being shut in or plugged.” The office added that “without a significant uptick in new wells spud, producing well growth will likely continue to decelerate.” While Henry Hub prices declined throughout 2020, they increased in 4Q2020 by 5.6% year/year to average $2.47/MMBtu during the period, driven by winter weather and higher electricity demand. However, IFO noted that regional prices fell steeply throughout the year. In the fourth quarter, average prices in Pennsylvania declined 21.8% year/year to $1.39/MMBtu.

 Bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions blames ‘mislabeled’ pipe for big blast that led to refinery’s closure The bankrupt former operator of a South Philadelphia refinery has blamed the supplier of an allegedly mislabeled elbow section of pipe for the 2019 leak and explosion that led to the permanent closure of the plant.Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC, along with the trust that is liquidating the company’s remaining assets, has sued Babcock & Wilcox Co. for allegedly mislabeling the pipe, whose failure authorities say led to the catastrophic accident. The pipe was installed 46 years before the explosion when the refinery was owned by Gulf Oil.“B&W inadequately and defectively marketed the failed elbow joint by mislabeling the failed elbow joint and misleading the purchaser,” according to the complaint, filed Friday in Philadelphia Common Pleas Court. The suit was first reported by Law360.com.The refinery property was sold last year in bankruptcy court for $225.5 million to Hilco Redevelopment Partners, which promised to demolish and clean up the 1,300-acre site and rebuild it as a mixed-use industrial park. PES was the East Coast’s largest refinery until the June 21, 2019 accident damaged the plant and tipped public sentiment against its continued operation.Though the 150-year-old refinery is closed for good, PES continues to sort out the settlement of millions of dollars in liabilities owed to creditors. The lawsuit filed Friday in Philadelphia Common Pleas Court seeks damages from Babcock & Wilcox for allegedly mislabeling the failed pipe joint, and makes claims for negligence, product liability, and breach of warranty.A preliminary 2019 report by the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board identified the 8-inch diameter section of pipe in the refinery’s alkylation unit as the source of the leak of flammable liquids and hydrofluoric acid (HF), which formed a vapor cloud that exploded. The alkylation unit produces a chemical that boosts octane level of gasoline.A series of explosions released 5,239 pounds of deadly HF and launched pieces of shrapnel as large as 19 tons across the refinery. Despite the release of hydrofluoric acid, only five refinery workers experienced minor injuries that required first aid treatment.The piping circuit in the alkylation unit that contained the ruptured elbow was installed in about 1973, when a previous owner, Gulf Oil, had installed the unit. CSB said the piping appeared to be original. The CSB report said that a section of pipe that leaked had corroded to about half the thickness of a credit card, or a mere 0.012 inches thick, 7% of the minimum thickness allowed. It said the faulty section of steel pipe contained a high amount of copper and nickel, whose presence in a steel alloy can cause greater corrosion when it comes in contact with HF.

Fracking banned in Delaware River Basin - In a historic ruling, the Delaware River Basin Commission voted Feb. 25 to permanently ban fracking (hydraulic fracturing) for natural gas in the Delaware River Watershed. This ruling formally affirms a drilling moratorium the DRBC imposed in 2010. Representatives of the four states with waterways the Delaware River drains — Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Delaware — voted in favor of the ban. But the federal government representative from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers abstained, claiming more time was needed to coordinate with the Biden administration.Executive Director Wenonah Hauter of Food & Water Watch, one of several groups who fought for the ban, criticized the federal abstention: “Grassroots activists stopped a plan to frack the Delaware River and never stopped fighting until today’s victory was assured. . . . Fracking is a threat to the Delaware River and everywhere else. Communities living with the harms of fracking have known for years that there is no way to make fracking safe.“The White House chose political expediency today over protecting the drinking water of 15 million people. Biden should listen to communities and science and support a ban on fracking everywhere.” (foodandwaterwatch.org)The DRBC ban prohibits fracking activity in areas of northeastern Pennsylvania and southern New York that sit atop natural gas deposits in the Marcellus Shale formation. Because New York State banned fracking in 2014, the ban only impacts Pennsylvania drilling. The Marcellus Shale does not extend into Delaware or New Jersey.More than 15 million people, a population including New York City; Philadelphia and Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del., rely on the 13,539-square-mile Delaware River Basin for their drinking water. The protected area includes the Delaware Water Gap and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River areas — parks that attracted three million visitors and generated $130 million in economic activity in 2019, according to the National Parks Conservation Association.Environmental and community activists have pressured the DRBC for over a decade to ban fracking in the area. Thousands of people signed petitions, wrote letters, demonstrated and spoke out at public hearings. This campaign expanded the broader struggle across the U.S. to ban fracking and to stop building dangerous pipelines to transport petroleum and natural gas extracted through fracking.

US Natural Gas Production Fell 1% in 2020 Amid Pandemic, Lower Prices, EIA Says -- U.S. annual natural gas production in 2020 declined 1% year/year and averaged 111.2 billion Bcf/d, a reflection in part of the pullback in drilling activity following the demand destruction and downward pressure on prices caused by the coronavirus pandemic.In releasing its latest 2020 estimate, measured by gross withdrawals, the U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) also on Tuesday noted that a robust increase in production during 2019 resulted in elevated volumes of gas in storage and additional stress on prices early in 2020.Domestic natural gas production grew by 9.8 Bcf/d, or 10% year/year, in 2019, and averaged 111.5 Bcf/d.The agency said production volumes reached a 2020 low in May of 106.4 Bcf/d, before gradually recovering in the second half the year. By December, EIA said, production had increased to 113.0 Bcf/d, though that marked a monthly high not expected to be sustained on an annual basis this year.In the previously released Annual Energy Outlook 2021, EIA said its base case outlook assumed that domestic gas production would recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 before continuing to rise through 2050, driven by Lower 48 shale and tight resources, as well as associated gas from oil plays.Under that assumption, the agency said, “more than half of the growth in shale gas production between 2020 and 2050 comes from shale gas plays in the Appalachian Basin in the East region, and most of the remaining growth comes from plays in the Gulf Coast and Southwest regions.” EIA noted Tuesday that Appalachia remains the largest gas-producing region in the United States and is still expanding. Within the Appalachia region, the agency noted, West Virginia was home to the biggest increase in production last year, up 20% to an annual average 7.1 Bcf/d. Production from the Marcellus and Utica/Point Pleasant shales of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia continues to expand as well. In total, 2020 production from these three states increased to 33.6 Bcf/d in 2020 from 32.1 Bcf/d in 2019, EIA said. Texas remained the largest gas producing state, though its output decreased from 28.4 Bcf/d in 2019 to 28.1 Bcf/d in 2020. Meanwhile, Oklahoma had the largest gas production decrease, falling 13% to 7.6 Bcf/d, according to EIA.

Pipeline firm outlines eminent domain case at Supreme Court -- Wednesday, March 3, 2021 -- The developer of the PennEast pipeline called for the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court's "deeply flawed" decision blocking the company from seizing state-controlled land in New Jersey to build its 116-mile natural gas pipeline.Both the state of Kentucky and the companies that issued bonds guaranteeing clean-up and reclamation of the dynamite-blasted landscape warned in court proceedings that there might not be enough money to do all the required work. With other U.S. coal-mining companies in similar financial straits and demand for coal plummeting, Blackjewel’s situation is a harbinger of the trouble ahead in coal country. Coal mining companies are required to post bonds to cover the costs of reclamation should they go bankrupt. They are also supposed to reclaim idled mine sites contemporaneously, as they are mining new areas. As the industry rapidly loses market share and continues its lurch toward the financial abyss, part of its legacy could involve scarred, strip-mined landscapes left behind by serial bankruptcies and government programs that may not be able to step in and finance clean-up and reclamation, environmental and citizens groups fear. “There just is not the capital left in the coal industry to satisfy all the remaining outstanding reclamation obligations,” said Peter Morgan, a Sierra Club attorney who closely follows coal-industry bankruptcy cases nationally. “These companies have been allowed to kick the can down the road time and time again, and now they are running out of road.” Morgan said he sees the Blackjewel case as “the tip of the iceberg,” with other major bankruptcies on the horizon. “There will be a lot more Blackjewels,” he said.

Maine natural gas company pulls plug on $90 million midcoast project -- A Maine natural gas company is withdrawing plans for a $90 million project announced earlier this year. In announcing the withdrawal, Summit Natural Gas alluded to political opposition to the gas pipeline that would have expanded natural gas access in Waldo and Knox counties. “Without regional alignment on the best ways to reduce emissions and promote cleaner energy usage, we will no longer pursue plans to bring natural gas to this part of Maine,” CEO Kurt Adams said Tuesday. The pipeline project had attracted early support from leaders in Rockport and Belfast, but opposition was growing against the project, with groups like Sierra Club Maine campaigning against the “fracked gas line.” Summit had pitched the pipeline as a move to limit climate change, coming at a time when Gov. Janet Mills has pledged to make Maine climate neutral by 2045. The company said the project would have reduced Maine’s carbon emissions by 263,000 metric tons over five years, which is equivalent to removing 56,000 cars from the road. Natural gas is a “relatively clean burning” fossil fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the use of natural gas results in lower rates of carbon dioxide emissions than oil or coal.

Florsheim Announces Sale of NRG Plant, Possible Energy Storage Plan— A gas-fired power plant that drew controversy over plans to build a new turbine was among the fossil fuel plants NRG Energy is selling, Middletown Mayor Ben Florsheim said Monday night.NRG announced Monday that it was selling 4.8 GW of fossil fuel generating assets to Generation Bridge, an affiliate of ArcLight Capital Partners, for $760 million. Florsheim said the company announced in a meeting on Monday morning these assets include the Middletown power plant, as well as plants in New York and California.The announcement comes just over two weeks after NRG failed to secure funding in a regional energy auction it needed to build a new turbine to replace two half-century-old turbines at its plant on the Connecticut River in the south of Middletown.Shortly after that auction, NRG officials held a meeting with the Middletown Common Council and residents opposed to the new turbine. NRG indicated it would be looking into a different proposal for the plant that would include energy storage that the company believed would be more competitive with the regional auction price. “Suffice it to say, this is going to significantly impact the future of this project in ways that we can’t quite anticipate yet,” Florsheim said.

Manchin emphasizes natural gas in second letter to Biden - — For the second time this week, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has reached out to President Joe Biden on energy policy.Manchin, the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, wrote to the president Friday in support of natural gas production, stressing the related impact on the economy and energy security.“Responsible production of natural gas and practices like hydraulic fracturing have improved our nation’s energy security while supporting the nearly 1.5 million hard working Americans the industry employs, including in rural communities across our great nation,” Manchin said. “It is my hope that you will consider these benefits as you evaluate the federal oil and gas leasing program and consider other policies and regulations related to the energy industry.” Friday’s letter follows Manchin’s request for Biden to reconsider his decision to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Biden, through executive action, rescinded approval of the project, which would have resulted in the transportation of 800,000 barrels of oil daily from Alberta, Canada to Nebraska.The senator noted Friday the opportunities for natural gas projects in Appalachia with the Marcellus and Point Pleasant-Utica Shale formations, which go from the West Virginia-Virginia border to New York. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the formations contain an estimated average of 214 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.“Responsible production of our abundant resources is critical,” Manchin said. “That includes using existing technologies and continuing to innovate new ways to reduce methane flaring and leaks from oil and gas systems and expanding our energy infrastructure and gathering lines to instead get that product to market.Manchin said the use of natural gas liquids has increased due to the manufacturing of chemicals, plastics and synthetic materials. He added China’s demand is also expected to continue growing as part of the country’s economic competitiveness strategy.

U.S. natgas hold near 4-week low as weather turns seasonally milder (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a four-week low on Monday on forecasts for seasonally milder weather and lower heating demand in March. After falling for seven days in a row, front-month gas futures NGc1 edged up 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.777 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Jan. 29. Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 86.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February as extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and the central United States, the lowest in a month since October 2018. That compares with 91.1 bcfd in January and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 111.3 bcfd this week to 102.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. That, however, was higher than Refinitiv forecast on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies, the lowest since October 2020. That compares with an average of 10.4 bcfd in January and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asiaremain high enough over U.S. futures to make it profitable to ship American gas across the oceans. Traders, however, noted U.S. LNG exports cannot rise much more until new units enter service in 2022 since U.S. export capacity is only 10.5 bcfd. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can export since they use some of the fuel to run the facility. 

Hints of Heating Demand Boost April Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas futures rallied on Tuesday, climbing on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export momentum and hints of increased heating demand in mid-March. The April Nymex contract climbed 6.2 cents day/day and settled at $2.839/MMBtu, building upon a modest gain a day earlier. May advanced 5.7 cents to $2.875. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., meanwhile, lost 12.5 cents to $2.840, led lower by sharp declines in the volatile Northeast region. Futures opened trading in the green on Tuesday and gained strength through the session. Mild weather is widely anticipated much of next week across the Lower 48, but forecasters noted the potential for cooler conditions the following week that could inject a dose of heating demand before spring settles in for good. Though above normal temperatures are still anticipated, projections for the March 12-16 time frame trended colder for the eastern two thirds of the Lower 48 early Tuesday, Maxar’s Weather Desk said. This change is “echoed among the various models over the past 24 hours,” the forecaster said. Production, meanwhile, hovered around 86 Bcf as trading got underway Tuesday, still well below the roughly 90 Bcf level reached prior to the paralyzing winter freeze that gripped Texas in mid-February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that natural gas production in Texas dropped nearly 45% during the week ended Feb. 13, hitting a low of 11.8 Bcf/d on Feb. 17. It is gradually recovering.

US gas storage volumes fall much less than expected as Henry Hub summer strip dips | S&P Global Platts --Forecasts proved well off the mark as US natural gas in storage fell by only 98 Bcf for the week ended Feb. 26 following the week prior's monster draw of 338 Bcf, prompting a decline for the Henry Hub summer strip. Storage inventories decreased by 98 Bcf to 1.845 Tcf for the week-ended Feb. 26, the US Energy Information Administration reported the morning of March 4. The withdrawal was much weaker than the 137 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. It was the largest miss by the storage survey in at least five years. By comparison, the survey has missed the EIA estimate by an average of 8 Bcf year to date. The closest figure of the survey to the EIA estimate was still well above the mark, calling for a 117 Bcf draw. The extent of the disconnect between the EIA and the market is possibly the largest it has ever been in the shale era, likely because of the compounding uncertainties related to the recovery of both production and demand in the wake of the mid-February cold front that brought massive volatility to the US gas market, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The draw was closer to the five-year average of 81 Bcf, and, as a result, the deficit to the five-year average increased from 161 Bcf to 178 Bcf. The EIA's South Central region posted a net change of zero for the week as the salt dome facilities added 9 Bcf, while the non-salt storage fields withdrew 9 Bcf. Over the past five years, the region has posted a net draw of 15 Bcf. Platts Analytics models pointed to a 28 Bcf draw for the region. Natural gas prices searched for direction this week, with the April NYMEX oscillating between $2.70/MMBtu and $2.90/MMBtu. The NYMEX Henry Hub April contract slipped 7 cents to $2.75/MMBtu following the release of the weekly storage report. The summer strip, April through October, fell 6 cents to average $2.85/MMBtu. A lack of intimidating cold in the March forecasts has kept market bulls at bay, while a constructive inventory backdrop has kept market bears from accelerating selling pressure. The market is clearly not reading too much into the report, as the large miss could be more a sign of transient issues post freeze-off events or simply data collection errors. Platts Analytics supply and demand model currently forecasts a 67 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 5, which would measure 22 Bcf weaker than the five-year average, as the withdrawal season enters its final month. Production for the week in progress was not impacted by the freeze-off event earlier in the month leading to a production gain of 5.4 Bcf/d week over week. Milder temperatures also reduced total demand by nearly 6 Bcf/d.

April Natural Gas Futures Stumble as Bearish Storage Report Overshadows LNG Recovery - A surprisingly anemic storage withdrawal caught markets off guard on Thursday, fueling bearish demand sentiment and driving natural gas futures lower despite robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels.The April Nymex contract dropped 7.0 cents on the day and settled at $2.746/MMBtu. May shed 6.8 cents to $2.781.Diminished near-term weather demand also dragged spot gas prices lower. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 16.5 cents to $3.005. LNG export volumes exceeded 11 Bcf Thursday, NGI data showed, marking a return to near-record levels on strong demand from Asia and parts of Europe. LNG feed gas levels were temporarily muted amid the disruptions imposed in February by the Artic freeze that gripped Texas and threw Gulf Coast energy operations out of sync. They have since recovered and on Thursday were on par with the peak reached during the height of winter in January. However, production also recovered to the pre-freeze level of 90 Bcf. “Production levels rebounded quickly after most freeze-offs and other cold related impacts resolved just a week after production bottomed out at around 70 Bcf/d on Feb. 17,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Dan Spangler said in a note to clients Thursday.  What’s more, weather outlooks provided little in the way of new momentum for heating demand.

Small Gains for Natural Gas Forwards as LNG Demand Roars Back; More Upside May Wait Until After Spring -- Shoulder season may be setting in across U.S. natural gas forward markets weeks ahead of schedule, with modest price changes seen across the country, according to NGI’s Forward Look. A quick return to business as usual following last month’s historic winter freeze combined with near-perfect temperatures to drive April forward prices up only 6.0 cents from Feb. 26-March 3. A similar increase was seen for May forwards, while the summer (April-October) strip and next winter (November-March) posted smaller gains, Forward Look data showed. Rather than winter weather providing any momentum for forward prices this week, the latest weather data showed only a brief bout of cold over the next couple of weeks, with models favoring chilly air over the West then moving eastward around the middle of the month. However, before and after the projected cold snap, conditions are expected to be fairly mild, and NatGasWeather noted weather models are now at odds on just how cold it may become. The European model has grown chillier in recent runs, while the American model has warmed. “Statistically, the latest European Centre is more than 25 heating degree days colder versus the Global Forecast System for the coming 15 days,” NatGasWeather said. Rather than banking too much on the weather, traders may have relied on technical support to spur the rebound, according to EBW Analytics Group. However, further price gains may prove difficult to come by, barring a more substantial bullish forecast shift. The EBW analysts said the market surprisingly shrugged off the recent 338 Bcf storage withdrawal, which was the second largest on record. The withdrawal finally flipped the storage surplus to the five-year average to a deficit. Then, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) followed up the massive draw with another stunner on Thursday. The EIA reported a shockingly low 98 Bcf withdrawal from storage inventories for the week ending Feb. 26. Participants on The Desk’s online energy chat Enelyst questioned the validity of the data, especially in the South Central region. The EIA reported no net change in stocks for the period, with the 9 Bcf build in salt facilities being negated by the 9 Bcf draw in nonsalts. Some estimates had pointed to a draw in the high 20s Bcf. Some market observers also noted that refineries along the Gulf Coast have experienced a much slower return following the Arctic blast, while others said ethane rejection in the Permian Basin may have boosted production in the region. Elsewhere across the country, the Midwest withdrew 43 Bcf out of storage, and the East took out 41 Bcf, according to EIA. Both the Mountain and Pacific regions pulled out less than 10 Bcf. Total working gas in storage fell to 1,845 Bcf, which is 277 Bcf lower than year-ago levels and 178 Bcf below the five-year average. Ahead of the EIA report, estimates were pointing to a much steeper withdrawal near 135 Bcf, which would have pushed the deficit to the five-year average to around 215 Bcf.

EDITORIAL: Move tankers away from Mayfield homes  --RESIDENTS of Fredericksburg’s Mayfield neighborhood have a good reason to complain about the dozens of tanker cars CSX Transportation has parked near their homes: They can smell the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other hazardous chemicals the cars contain. That prompted the City Council to pass a resolution requesting that the railroad stop storing tanker cars near the residential area. CSX officials responded that although it “may occasionally have rail cars temporarily in the Fredericksburg yard waiting to be moved to customers,” the tankers are “generally empty,” and “moved daily.” Then why are nearby residents still getting unwelcome whiffs of their contents? It would be one thing if this was the first time that CSX used tracks in the city to store tanker cars containing hazardous chemicals. It’s not. Mayfield residents, including Vice Mayor Chuck Frye, Ward 4, still remember a 2016 incident in which a tanker car parked there leaked a small amount of ethanol being transferred from a subsidiary’s now-defunct ethanol plant in Spotsylvania County. At that time, CSX promised to build a 1.5-mile spur line at its rail yard on Railroad Avenue to keep tanker cars out of the city’s residential areas. The spur line was built with CSX contributing $414,000 and the commonwealth dedicating $900,000 of state money to the project. For the week ending Feb. 27, CSX moved 123,488 carloads of freight containing everything from grain and farm products to petroleum products, lumber, steel scrap, coal and shipping containers—a 2.9 percent increase over the same week in 2020. Since capacity is limited to the amount of space on its tracks, which are shared by Amtrak and the Virginia Railway Express, the railroad often has to pull railcars onto spur lines to let more urgent traffic pass.

How a Gas Company Grossly Underestimated One of the Biggest Pipeline Spills in U.S. History | The New Republic (part 1 of 3) Last year, on August 14, two teenagers riding their ATVs through the woods in Huntersville, North Carolina, noticed a strange liquid bubbling from the earth. They stopped to take a look. The pair, who soon informed their local fire department, had no clue of the scale of the disaster they were looking at. And thanks to the craftiness of Colonial Pipeline, the rest of the country wouldn’t, either.The Colonial Pipeline system, described by a former CEO as a “superhighway of energy,” consists of two parallel pipelines that stretch a combined 5,500 miles, running through 12 southeastern states carrying gas from Houston to New Jersey. We now know the spill started sometime in early August 2020, caused by a crack in one of the pipes, and that the flow of gas was cut off shortly after the local fire department called it in. At first, the company said only around 63,000 gallons of gasoline had spilled, according to local news reports from WSOC. Then, as August turned to September, the number grew to 273,000. In November, as the company assured Huntersville residents that it was “deeply committed to keeping them informed throughout the process,” the number increased again, this time stopping in the neighborhood of 360,000 gallons. By then, the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, which was overseeing the cleanup process, released a statement that found that Colonial “has significantly underestimated the volume of gasoline” spilled into the natural preserve. Less than a week later, a Colonial spokesperson admitted toWFAE that the company in fact had no clue how much gas had been pouring from its pipe and that it would, “release a number when we believe it’s accurate and verified through multiple models.” In late January, some five months after those two teenagers happened upon the burst pipeline, the spill’s true scope was finally released in aComprehensive Site Assessment Report filed by the company with DEQ:1.2 million gallons. Instantaneously, it became one of the largest nontanker spills in modern American history. And even with the 1,600 pages of documentation, there was still a great deal of missing information. Last week, the DEQ sent Colonial a Notice of Continuing Violation, finding that the company had not adequately measured or reported the levels of vapor, soil, and air pollution from the site, ordering it to update its assessment by the end of April, and continue testing the private resident wells. The question that now hovers over this crisis is how Colonial managed to obscure, for this long, the scope of what happened in the backyard of North Carolina’s most populous city.

Between Oil And Water: The Issue With Enbridge’s Line 5 – The Organization for World Peace -- Two pipelines have been lying at the bottom of the Great Lakes for six decades. Carrying more than half a million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids every day, Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5 runs from Superior, Wisconsin to Sarnia, Ontario. The pipeline passes under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac—a narrow waterway that connects Lakes Michigan to Lake Huron. The Strait has shallow water, strong currents, and extreme weather conditions (becoming frozen during winter). If a pipe were to rupture, the oil would reach shorelines, accumulate, and jeopardize Great Lakes Michigan and Huron’s ecology. Conscious of environmental concerns, on 13 November 2020, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer demanded that Enbridge halt oil flow through the pipeline within 180 days. A 2016 study by the University of Michigan found that more than 700 miles (or roughly 1,100 kilometres) of shoreline in Lakes Michigan and Huron would be compromised by a Line 5 rupture. The Graham Sustainability Institute used computer imaging to model how the oil potentially could spread. According to their findings, the most significant risk areas include the Bois Blanc Islands, places on the north shore of the Straits, and Mackinaw City. Communities at risk include Beaver Island, Cross Village, Harbor Springs, Cheboygan, and other areas of the shoreline. A pipeline rupture would quickly contaminate Lakes Michigan and Huron’s shorelines and would involve an extensive cleanup.Enbridge claims Line 5 is in good condition and has never leaked in the past. However, Enbridge has a checkered past when it comes to oil spills. In 2010 an Enbridge pipeline ruptured in the Kalamazoo River (also located in Michigan) and spilled roughly 1 million gallons of crude oil. The spill went undetected for 18 hours, and the United States Department of Transportation fined Enbridge USD 3.7 million. It is one of the largest land-based oil spills in American history. An investigation found the cause of the pipeline breach to be corrosion fatigue due to ageing pipelines. Alarmingly, the pipeline that runs through the Straits of Mackinac is 15 years older than the pipeline that burst in the Kalamazoo River. Additionally, this is not the only time an Enbridge pipeline has leaked oil. Between 1999 and 2013, there have been 1,068 Enbridge oil spills involving 7.4 million gallons of oil. Despite this history, Enbridge is refusing to comply with the demands of Michigan. On 24 November 2020, Enbridge took legal recourse and brought the case to the U.S. federal court. Enbridge argues that the state has overstepped its jurisdiction. The company also asserts that they not answerable to state overseers, only the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration. Legal analysts point out that the courts are typically hesitant to shutdown operating pipelines and have not often done so in the past. Enbridge is likely to cite precedents in an appeal if the court rules in favour of the state.

Canada calls Michigan’s shutdown of Line 5 a threat to country’s energy security - Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan is calling Michigan’s order to shut down the Enbridge ENB-Tpipeline Line 5, a major petroleum conduit for Central Canada, a threat to this country’s energy security. He said Canada considers the continued operation of Line 5 “non-negotiable” for this country. It is the strongest language the federal government has used to date for a bilateral dispute that is quickly becoming a test of the budding relationship between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and new U.S. President Joe Biden. The Trudeau government’s minister also vowed Canada would do whatever it takes to stop Michigan from shutting down the pipeline, which passes through the state on its way to Sarnia, Ont. Earlier this week, a senior Global Affairs official said Ottawa would invoke a 1977 Canada-U.S. treaty, which forces binding arbitration on the matter, if necessary. Mr. O’Regan was speaking to MPs on a parliamentary committee Thursday. “We take threats to our energy security very seriously,” he told the special House of Commons Committee on the Economic Relationship between Canada and the United States. “A shutdown of Line 5 would have profound consequences, in Canada and in the United States.” He vowed Canada would intervene precisely when necessary. “The federal government is watching it like a hawk. ... We are watching it on almost a minute-by-minute basis and we will be absolutely prepared to intervene at exactly the precise moment.” Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has ordered the May, 2021, shutdown of the Line 5 pipeline, citing environmental risks. Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. has challenged her decision in court. The Enbridge Line 5 pipeline carries petroleum from Western Canada through Great Lakes states to Ontario, where much of the crude is turned into gasoline and other fuels before the remainder is shipped through the Line 9 pipeline to Quebec refineries.

Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline 'very different' from Keystone XL and Canada will fight hard for it: O'Regan — The federal government won’t let Michigan shut down the Line 5 pipeline, Canada’s natural resources minister said Thursday as he dismissed opposition comparisons to the thwarted Keystone XL project. Seamus O’Regan sounded almost combative as he vowed to defend the 1,000-kilometre line, which bridges an environmentally sensitive part of the Great Lakes to link Wisconsin with refineries in Sarnia, Ont. “We are fighting for Line 5 on every front and we are confident in that fight,” O’Regan told a special House of Commons committee on the relationship between Canada and the United States. The Enbridge Inc. pipeline carries an estimated 540,000 daily barrels worth of oil and natural gas liquids, and is vital to the energy and employment needs of Ontario, Alberta and Quebec, as well as northern U.S. states, he added. “We are fighting on a diplomatic front, and we are preparing to invoke whatever measures we need to in order to make sure that Line 5 remains operational. The operation of Line 5 is non-negotiable.” In November, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered Line 5 to be shut down by May, accusing Calgary-based Enbridge of violating the terms of the deal that allows the line to traverse the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac. The straits, which link Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, boast powerful, rapidly changing currents that experts have said make the area the worst possible place for an oil spill in the Great Lakes. Pipeline opponents in the U.S. — many of the same voices who helped make TC Energy’s proposed Keystone XL expansion an environmental rallying point over the last decade — have vowed to see it shut down. Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., said Michigan’s concerns over Line 5 predate Whitmer and have been a topic of frequent discussion for embassy officials since 2017. Diplomats and governments will play a role in finding a solution, but resolving the dispute will likely come down to the state government and Enbridge, she suggested. “Line 5 is a crucial piece of energy infrastructure for Canada, but also for the United States — that is a core and principal message that we’re giving,” Hillman told the committee. She echoed O’Regan’s points about the potential impact not only on Canada, but on Michigan and Ohio as well, noting that the pipeline has been operating safely for more than half a century.

Solving Line 5 pipeline spat will require Biden's intervention, U.S.-Canada expert says U.S. President Joe Biden may be the key to settling the dispute over a Canadian-owned pipeline in Michigan, according to a long-time analyst of Canada-U.S. relations. Calgary-based Enbridge's Line 5 transports oil and natural gas liquids from Western Canada through the United States to refineries in Ontario and Quebec. Enbridge is working to replace a segment of the 68-year-old pipe that runs 7.2 kilometres under the Straits of Mackinac, which connects Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. The 1,038-kilometre project, built in 1953, goes from northwestern Wisconsin, across the upper peninsula of Michigan, under the Strait of Mackinac and down through the lower peninsula before crossing back up into Canada, terminating in Sarnia, Ont. Last November, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer moved to revoke the 1953 permit that allows the crossing under the straits. She gave notice that Enbridge must shut down the pipeline by May 2021, arguing the project presents an "unreasonable risk" of environmental damage to the Great Lakes. Earlier this week, Michael Grant, assistant deputy minister for the Americas at Global Affairs Canada, said the federal government is prepared to invoke the rules of a decades-old bilateral treaty if necessary to prevent the state government from pulling the permit. "The federal government is working very closely with Enbridge, mostly through mobilizing our diplomatic network in the United States, to engage the state of Michigan, as well as other states that have a vested interest in Line 5. We are also looking at all of our options that are available, including the 1977 treaty," Grant said. "Joe Biden is the key to this. And he's the key to it because this is litigation by the state of Michigan. So the federal government can't necessarily pre-empt the legislation, but they can weigh heavily in," he said. "And that's why I think Canada is talking about invoking this older treaty. They can intervene and say, 'no,no, this is important — we should allow this.'" However, Sands says the Line 5 dispute so far doesn't appear to be on Biden's radar and he has doubts the president will actually get involved. "We may have to re-examine whether Biden and Trudeau really do have this special relationship that we've heard about, because so far it's all talk, no action."

Deepwater Horizon's long-lasting legacy for dolphins The Deepwater Horizon disaster began on April 20, 2010 with an explosion on a BP-operated oil drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico that killed 11 workers. Almost immediately, oil began spilling into the waters of the gulf, an environmental calamity that took months to bring under control, but not before it became the largest oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry. Nearly 10 years have passed since then, and the oil slick has long since dispersed. Yet, despite early predictions, area wildlife are still feeling the effects of that oil, and research published in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry has shown that negative health impacts have befallen not only dolphins alive at the time of the spill, but also in their young, born years later. A team of researchers, including UConn Department of Pathobiology Professor and Director of the Connecticut Sea Grant College Program Sylvain De Guise, is part of a network conducting a long-term study on the health of bottlenose dolphins living in Louisiana's Barataria Bay, in the vicinity of the disaster. This population of dolphins includes individuals who lived through the disaster and some born afterwards. "We were on the ready and as soon as we could, and in 2011 we initiated a comprehensive health assessment where 60 to 80 people in the field worked together to find and safely pursue a multi-disciplinary, multi-expertise sample collection and study effort to assess the dolphins' health," says De Guise. De Guise explains that after collection, samples were processed in 60 to 80 different specialized labs, and the researchers then regrouped to put the information together. De Guise's research group specializes in studying the immune system, and from the very first set of samples they started to see consistent and abnormal immune responses in the Barataria Bay dolphins, compared with a similar control group of dolphins from Sarasota Bay who were not exposed to oil. For the Barataria Bay dolphins, the researchers observed immune cells called T-cells that were overly responsive to stimulation. The body uses T-cells to respond to a stimulus, or something recognized as foreign. In particular, there were increased numbers of cells called regulatory T cells, or Tregs, which De Guise describes as the cells that help put the brakes on during an immune response to prevent the body from over-responding and doing more harm than good. Despite the elevated numbers, De Guise says they were surprised to find the Barataria Bay dolphin Tregs appear to be functionally defective.

US LOOP reports 855,000 barrels of sour crude deliveries for February --Over 855,000 barrels of sour crude oil was delivered from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port in February, an increase of 205,00 barrels on the month, LOOP reported. Monthly LOOP Sour deliveries have increased steadily since October, and February represented the most deliveries reported since August last year when 790,000 barrels were taken out of storage at the facility. Before pandemic lockdowns took hold last year, LOOP deliveries reached 810,000 barrels in February 2020. Deliveries of the grade, which consists of a blend of Poseidon, Mars and Basrah, Kuwaiti and Arab Medium crudes, have increased as market conditions have steadily shifted into backwardation. That often can disincentivize market participants from storing crude and gives more incentive to taking crude out of storage. Refinery usage also has been growing, although winter storms in February took a bite out of consumption as some Gulf Coast refineries were forced to close. Power outages impacted Texas’ refinery capacity, with as much as 4.4 million b/d offline during the week of Feb. 18. Most refineries have begun restarting, but effects may linger until mid-March. The average API gravity for LOOP Sour in February was 29.91 degrees — lighter than January’s average of 29.67 degrees; and sulfur content averaged 2.04%, which was more sour than the month prior’s average of 1.92%. LOOP and Matrix Markets sold 150 of the 9,300 capacity allocations contracts that were offered during its monthly crude storage auction on March 2.

Louisiana AG Landry authorizes settlement between oil company, state  – Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry announced Thursday he signed off on a deal to resolve litigation involving an oil-and-gas company and coastal parishes alleging environmental damage. The Louisiana Legislature would have to create the framework to implement the deal between Freeport-McMoRan and the state, with the proceeds going to projects consistent with Louisiana's coastal restoration plan, Landry said. Oil-and-gas leaders, and at least one of their top legislative allies, denounced the deal, calling it secretive and counterproductive for the state’s economy and coastal restoration. “Our actions on these suits are designed to bring finality and resolution and allow everyone a seat at the table,” Landry said. Landry, a Republican, said the settlement releases Freeport from liability for any current claims, triggering its dismissal from the coastal parish lawsuits. In exchange, Freeport would deposit an initial $15 million payment into an escrow account. The company would make additional annual payments, contingent on legislative action, of $4.25 million over 20 years, he said. Payments would not be distributed until the Legislature creates a special fund and oversight board to manage the money. The board would award money toward projects consistent with the state’s Coastal Master Plan, with 60% dedicated to state projects and 40% dedicated to local projects, according to Landry’s office. Landry said the agreement balances environmental protection with a healthy oil-and-gas industry. It does not apply to other similar lawsuits involving dozens of other companies, and Landry said he respects those companies’ right to continue to litigate if they chose to do so. “This litigation has been going on for over eight years now and continues to have a chilling effect [on the industry],” Landry said. “I continue to share, along with the industry, ways to be able to resolve these matters or to take these things off of the table.” Landry said coastal parishes involved in the litigation don’t need to approve the agreement, which he said involve state claims. Gov. John Bel Edwards already has affirmed the settlement. "These long-standing lawsuits by Louisiana’s coastal parishes are focused on coastal restoration and protection," Shauna Sanford, a spokeswoman for Edwards, said by email. "This agreement ensures that settlement funds stay in the impacted coastal communities for restoration projects and the Governor is hopeful that this settlement can act as a framework for how other similar actions might be handled."

 Gas utilities face unprecedented test in digesting 'astronomical' storm costs | S&P Global Market Intelligence - As U.S. gas utilities report billions of dollars in natural gas purchase costs during February's deep freeze, analysts and executives say the industry has never faced a cost recovery challenge quite like this. The initial gas cost estimates are "astronomical and unprecedented" enough to complicate the funding and timing of any type of cost recovery, Mizuho Securities USA LLC analyst Gabriel Moreen said in a recent research note. While Mizuho was initially confident the impact on gas distributors would be limited, Moreen said the firm now sees potential for longer-term impacts. The cost recovery mechanism that policymakers ultimately approve will play a major role in determining the magnitude of those impacts, the analyst said. Consensus is emerging among gas utility leaders and equity analysts that securitizing the costs would be the simplest and best solution for companies and ratepayers alike. Under this model, companies would issue bonds to finance storm-related gas purchase costs. Some state commissions have already authorized utilities to record those costs in a regulatory asset. They will later determine whether those recorded costs were reasonably incurred and accurate, before setting a schedule for recovering them. [see embedded table]  One Gas Inc., which reported $2.2 billion in gas costs, is working with state policymakers and regulators to develop legislation allowing gas utilities to securitize the regulatory assets, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Curtis Dinan said on a Feb. 26 conference call. He characterized the conversations as "very positive" but cautioned that the situation is unprecedented. "Historically, you've seen [securitization] in different parts of the country primarily related to electric utilities that have dealt with different storm costs," Dinan said. "There hasn't been, that I'm aware of, situations that would apply to a gas utility similar to that until this most recent event."

Six hurt in Saturday afternoon fire at Delek refinery in El Dorado -Delek US said six of its employees are being treated for injuries after a fire broke out Saturday afternoon in the Penex unit of its refinery in El Dorado. The fire was put out by the refinery’s on-site emergency response team with assistance from the El Dorado Fire Department. The fire was reported about 4 p.m. El Dorado resident Rochell Lee Thompson shot Facebook video of the fire. CLICK HERE to see it. Thompson, who lives about two blocks from the refinery, told magnoliareporter.com that his house shook about 4 p.m. He went outside and saw the fire. The refinery was evacuated. Delek US said in a statement issued Saturday night that after the fire broke out, the company began to monitor the air quality within the refinery and the community and have detected no adverse impacts. “We have accounted for all personnel, and we are deeply saddened that six Delek employees are receiving medical treatment this evening. Four of the injured were transferred from the Medical Center of South Arkansas to the burn unit at Arkansas Children's Hospital in Little Rock. Delek US said that the facility was in the process of undergoing turnaround activity, so there are no operational impacts to Delek US or Delek Logistics

Delek: Investigation into fire at El Dorado refinery to be launched— A fire broke out at the Delek: El Dorado Refinery, formerly known as Lion Oil, Saturday afternoon, injuring six people. It will be investigated “as soon as possible,” a statement released by Delek US Holdings late Saturday night said. “Earlier today, a fire occurred at the Penex unit of our refinery in El Dorado, Arkansas. Our on-site emergency response team, with the assistance of the El Dorado Fire Department, extinguished the fire,” the statement says. “We immediately began to monitor the air quality within the refinery and the community and have detected no adverse impacts.” Delek reported that six people were “receiving medical treatment.” Alex Bennett, executive director of business development at Medical Center of South Arkansas, said on Saturday that six patients were brought to the hospital and four were subsequently transferred to the Arkansas Children’s Hospital (ACH) Burn Unit, explaining that almost all burn patients in the state are transferred there. She said Sunday that the remaining two patients had also been transferred to ACH. The statement goes on to say that the refinery was in the process of turnaround activity, so there were no operational impacts to Delek Logistics or Delek US. “All of our facilities have rigorous, well documented safety controls. Safety is one of our Core Values. A full investigation will be launched as soon as possible,” the statement concludes. Along with the company fire brigade on-site at the refinery, the EFD, Union County Sheriff’s Office and Arkansas State Police responded to the fire.

Cold weather led to refinery shutdowns in U.S. Gulf Coast region -- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) The cold snap that affected much of the central part of the country in mid-February disrupted energy systems,particularly in and around Texas. In the U.S. Gulf Coast, where the petroleum infrastructure has rarely operated in sub-zero temperatures, several refineries fully or partially shut down, leading to the largest reduction in Gulf Coast refinery operations in several years.Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), gross inputs of crude oil and other feedstock to U.S. refineries declined 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) (18%) to 12.6 million b/d for the week ending February 19, 2021. Most of the reduction in gross inputs (also known as refinery runs) was in the Gulf Coast region, which includes Texas.Gulf Coast refinery runs decreased by 2.4 million b/d (28%) to 6.3 million b/d, the largest weekly decline since the impact of Hurricane Harvey in September 2017. The refinery closures will likely continue to affect petroleum markets in the coming weeks, reducing refinery demand for crude oil and production of refined products such as motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil.The Gulf Coast accounts for more than half of total U.S. refinery capacity, and Texas alone accounts for about 32% of total U.S. capacity. By the peak of the weather’s impact on February 17, several refineries had announced either substantial or complete shutdowns as a result of external power outages, constrained natural gas supplies, logistical disruptions, or damage to process units. In total, an estimated 3.7 million b/d, or 20% of total U.S. refining capacity, was shut in as a result of the weather, according to U.S. Department of Energy estimates. Most of the disruptions and shutdowns were among refiners in the Beaumont/Port Arthur, Houston, and Corpus Christi regions of Texas. A more detailed analysis of how the cold weather affected Gulf Coast refineries is available in EIA’s This Week in Petroleum.

European Gasoline Diverted to Texas to Ease Supply Crunch (Bloomberg) -- Five gasoline tankers that were enroute to the U.S. East Coast diverted to the Port of Houston to help ease a supply crunch after last month’s freeze crippled the region’s refineries. Major refineries along Gulf Coast, the nation’s refining hub, shut gasoline units during the February deep freeze and power failures. Operators have gradually begun resuming production since the weather warmed, but some plants could take weeks to get back to normal.  Texas retailers were also forced to truck in gasoline from other states last week for the first time since Hurricane Harvey. U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by a record 13 million barrels last week, with most of that in Gulf Coast region, according to government data. The five ships are carrying nearly 1.5 million barrels in total. Texas remains “very low” on gasoline, said Paul Hardin, president of the Texas Food & Fuel Association trade group. “If we don’t have a public panic buy, we’ll make it through the next three or four days.” Friday afternoon 12.2% of Texas gasoline stations -- roughly one in every eight -- were unavailable because of lack of fuel, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said in an email. The figure was at 14% Monday. The New York area, which is supplied with fuel by pipeline from Houston to augment its local refineries, is not yet facing Texas’ pinch. The region’s inventories increased last week. But the country’s largest fuel artery, the Colonial Pipeline, said earlier this week major lines toward New York were experiencing reduced throughput. Fewer barrels of gasoline will be available in the Northeast. “Gasoline is definitely migrating south. There’s room in the tanks so I would expect to see greater flows” toward Houston in coming weeks,

Record U.S. crude stockbuild as refining plummets after Texas freeze (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles surged by a record of more than 21 million barrels last week as refining plunged to an all-time low due to the Texas freeze that knocked out power for millions. With refiners unable to process crude, gasoline and distillate inventories also dropped dramatically, especially in the Gulf Coast region where their declines set records, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 21.6 million barrels, the largest one-week increase ever, in the week to Feb. 26 to 484.6 million barrels. Analysts had anticipated a 932,000-barrel drop. “This drop is 100% based upon the storm in Texas,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Markets in New York. “It was very bullish for refineries and very bearish for oil, it was the crack spread siege.” The storm shut U.S. refining capacity along the Gulf Coast, while demand remained in other parts of the country. Refinery crude runs fell by 2.3 million barrels per day in the last week, and the overall refinery utilization rate plunged 12.6 percentage points to an all-time low at 56%, EIA said. U.S. Gulf Coast refining use dropped to just over 40% of its overall capacity, a record low. Several major refiners along the Gulf shut outright during the storm and had to deal with frozen components as they restarted slowly. “I’m not surprised, I’m surprised it took an extra week to all kick in. It was a giant storm and it shut down every refinery in refinery row, basically,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Oil prices jumped after the data, with U.S. crude futures climbing to $61.38 a barrel, a 2.7% increase as of 11:35 a.m. ET (1635 GMT). Brent rose 2.3% to $64.15 a barrel. The increase in stocks was also driven by a big jump in U.S. crude imports, which rose by a net 1.66 million barrels per day, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 13.6 million barrels in the week, the most ever, to 243.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 9.7 million barrels in the week to 143 million barrels, versus expectations for a 3 million-barrel drop.

US oil, gas rig count leaps 30 to 491 on week, as oil prices climb further: Enverus  — The US oil and gas rig count leaped 30 in the week ending March 3 to 491, rig data provider Enverus said, reaching the highest total since late-April 2020, as WTI oil prices climbed near the mid-$60s/b amid buoyant outlooks at major energy conferences.Oil-directed rigs accounted for the vast majority of the week's gain, rising 27 to 366, while rigs chasing natural gas grew three to 125.The Permian Basin, sited in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, was the clear focus area for growth, with a weekly increase of 12 for a total 222. Rig totals in the Permian are now at the most since late-April 2020."While on paper this looks like a massive week-on-week gain, generally speaking, it was a large recovery that was needed after two straight weeks of flat rigs for US shale," S&P Global Platts Analytics analyst Andrew Cooper said.The week's large jump may have been an "accumulation" from slowdowns the past few weeks because of the winter freeze that struck the US in mid-February, with rigs finally mobilized to the field after delays, Platts' Analytics analyst Parker Fawcett said.The freeze hit the Permian and Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas particularly hard. At peak, up to 4 million b/d of the US' total 11 million b/d of oil production was offline, although most of it was quickly restored within a few days. "At the annual CERAWeek by IHS Markit energy conference this week, enthusiasm for the future of upstream oil and gas in the next two decades was evident, despite what many believe will be a steadily growing use of renewable and alternative energy sources by mid-century; a move even oil and gas producers have begun to embrace.For the time being, upstream players have repeatedly renewed their vows not to contribute to supply-demand imbalances. At CERAWeek, they repeated they will stick to austere capital budgets and growth targets of 5% or less per year and return sizeable amounts of cash to shareholders, while continuing to cut costs, improve efficiencies and seek ways to reduce their carbon footprints.Oil prices that have topped $60 WTI in recent weeks served as backdrop for talk at the conference, with chatter that a year of under-activity in 2020 could push prices even higher in the next 18 months or so.LeBlanc said producers will almost certainly continue with austere programs in 2021, but suggested next year, if prices climb further, their appetite might overcome their will power.WTI averaged $61.35/b in the week ending March 3, up 13 cents week on week, according to S&P Global. WTI Midland averaged $62.28/b, down 8 cents, and Bakken Composite averaged $60.40/b, up $1.04.Natural gas settled lower as prices continued to stabilize following the impact of the US freeze. Henry Hub prices averaged $2.74/MMBtu, down $1.43 on week, and Dominion South averaged $2.32/MMBtu, down 58 cents.

Oil production could fall in Permian Basin due to Biden proposal - Dallas Fed report (Reuters) - Possible changes to oil leasing and permitting requirements governing federal lands could lower oil production in the Permian Basin, a report from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said on Thursday. In late January, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a raft of executive orders that paused new leasing for drilling on public lands and waters that account for about a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production. "We estimate that by the end of 2025, the Permian will produce between 230,000 and 490,000 barrels per day less than if drilling activity continued at its current pace," report bit.ly/30aL3kn said. Texas produces 41% of U.S. crude oil and 25% of natural gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. New Mexico, is the biggest beneficiary of revenues from drilling on federal lands.

Pioneer CEO sees 'very little growth' in U.S. oil production (Reuters) - U.S. oil production will likely see “very little growth” in the future after remaining largely flat in 2021 at around 11 million barrels a day, Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources Co chief executive officer, said at a conference on Tuesday. The coronavirus health crisis slashed global fuel demand and sent oil prices plummeting last year before economic stimulus measures and COVID-19 vaccine rollouts helped the industry regain footing in recent months. Still, U.S. shale oil production is lower than pre-pandemic levels and Sheffield and other industry experts said during CERAWeek by IHS Markit that it was unlikely to recover to its peak more than 13 million barrels per day. “I see U.S. production flattish this year at around 11 million barrels a day with very little growth in the future,” Sheffield said. The decline in oil comes as public policy, investors and energy companies increasingly focus on producing clean energy to fight the effects of climate change. Sheffield said Irving, Texas-based Pioneer was working to electrify its fracking fleet to help reduce emissions in its oil production.

U.S. oil production won't return to pre-pandemic levels, says Occidental CEO - Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said Thursday that she doesn't envision U.S. oil production returning to pre-pandemic highs. "I do believe that most companies have committed to value growth, rather than production growth," she said during a CNBC Evolve conversation with Brian Sullivan. "And so I do believe that that's going to be part of the reason that oil production in the United States does not get back to 13 million barrels a day." She believes companies will focus on optimizing current operations and facilities, rather than seeking growth at all costs. But she added that oil demand is recovering faster-than-expected, driven primarily by China, India and the United States. "The recovery looks more V-shaped than we had originally thought it would be," she said. The company's initial forecast had demand returning to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2022. Now, Hollub believes demand will return by the end of this year or the first few months of 2022. "I do believe we're headed for a much healthier supply and demand environment" she said. Her comments came after West Texas International crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped more than 4% on Thursday to trade as high as $64.86 per barrel, a level last seen in January 2020. She expects crude prices will be "a little better than where they are today" if her demand forecast for next year is correct, but she does not expect prices to go up "excessively" other than the short spikes that can occur from time to time. OPEC and its oil-producing allies on Thursday decided to keep production levels largely steady into April, with Saudi Arabia also announcing that it would extend its voluntary one million barrels per day production cut. The group first implemented unprecedented supply cuts in 2020 in an effort to provide a floor as oil prices tumbled to historic lows. The energy sector has rebounded this year and is the top-performing S&P group by a long shot, but stock prices continue to hover well below prior highs as the focus on ESG investing, among other things, weighs. Hollub reiterated Thursday that the company is working toward net zero carbon oil production through its heavy investments into carbon capture. "We need to change the narrative .. it's not fossil fuels that's really the problem, it's the emissions," she said. "What we have to do is we need to get everybody focused on instead of trying to kill fossil fuels, we need to get everybody's attention on how do we use oil and gas reservoirs to our advantage." "How do we use that to lower emissions all around the world, and that's exactly our goal. Our goal is to be the company that provides the solution," she said.

Dying Oil Companies’ Parting Gift: Millions in Clean Up Costs -When Weatherly Oil and Gas filed for bankruptcy in February 2019, the company was walking away from several hundred Texas wells. Many hadn’t produced a drop of oil in years. Companies are legally required to “plug” wells that they’re no longer using to extract oil and gas by pouring concrete into all their openings and cracks; this prevents them from leaking fossil fuels or harmful pollutants into the air and water sources nearby. But many companies that abandon wells say they no longer have the financial means to do so, leaving government regulators on the hook for the cost. The problem is massive: There are approximately 2.1 million unplugged abandoned wellsacross the country. The Texas Railroad Commission, or RRC, which oversees the state’s oil and gas industry, tried to make sure Weatherly would pay up, objecting to the state’s bankruptcy plan because it didn’t include sufficient information about the amount of money that would be set aside for well cleanup and for the company’s various creditors. Ultimately, Weatherly struck a deal with the agency: The company would pay the Commission $3.5 million to cover the plugging costs of the abandoned wells that it couldn’t find buyers for. The agency agreed, and the bankruptcy court approved the deal. When Weatherly handed over 173 abandoned wells to the state, it officially became the company responsible for the most orphan wells in Texas. Unfortunately, the $3.5 million that the RRC was able to squeeze out of Weatherly doesn’t even cover a third of the $13.3 million estimated cleanup cost. Effectively, the state is now responsible for coming up with almost all of the $10 million shortfall.Though Weatherly insisted it couldn’t find the money to fulfill its plugging obligations, the company’s top executives were paid a combined $8.6 million in the year preceding bankruptcy. Weatherly’s former CEO later became a paid bankruptcy expert for FTI Consulting, a public-relations firm with a record of launching duplicitous front groups for oil companies. (The company’s former executives did not immediately respond to requests for comment.) It’s a stark example of the way that environmental liabilities are going unaddressed when companies go belly up, according to a report released Tuesday by the new nonprofit group Commission Shift, which advocates for reform of oil and gas regulation in Texas. The Lone Star State currently has more than 6,000 orphan wells on government rolls, and the RRC estimates they will cost more than $300 million to clean up.

Oil trade group is poised to endorse carbon pricing - —The oil industry’s top lobbying group is preparing to endorse setting a price on carbon emissions in what would be the strongest signal yet that oil and gas producers are ready to accept government efforts to confront climate change. The American Petroleum Institute, one of the most powerful trade associations in Washington, is poised to embrace putting a price on carbon emissions as a policy that would “lead to the most economic paths to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement,” according to a draft statement reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action,” the draft statement says. API’s executive committee was slated to discuss the proposed statement this week. In a statement to the Journal, API’s senior vice president of communications, Megan Bloomgren, said the group’s efforts “are focused on supporting a new U.S. contribution to the global Paris agreement.” Carbon pricing aims to discourage the production of harmful greenhouse gases by setting a price on emissions. The API draft statement would endorse the concept in principle, without backing a specific pricing scheme such as a carbon tax.

American Petroleum Institute move would recognize climate change, but undercut other measures -  The American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry’s top lobbying arm, is edging closer to endorsing a carbon tax, a tool that would make fossil fuels more expensive, boost prospects for renewable and nuclear energy, and curb pollution that is driving climate change. But a paper being weighed by an API policy committee would back a carbon tax as an alternative to federal regulation and policies aimed at slowing climate change. And many analysts and lawmakers doubted the sincerity of any such API move because it is highly unlikely Congress would adopt a carbon tax — allowing the trade group to appear to support climate action while risking little. The draft statement, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, says that “API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action.” Coming up with the right language is key for API’s nearly 600 members at a time when President Biden wants urgent action in the fight against climate change. His administration is looking at measures that would slash fuel consumption, clamp down on methane emissions, make buildings more efficient, and limit drilling on federal lands. As Biden pledges monumental action on climate change, the fight with the fossil fuel industry has just begun API’s president Mike Sommers is eager to be part of those discussions, especially to prevent limits on drilling, moderate regulations on methane emissions and influence the terms of the climate plans required by all signatories to the Paris climate accord, which the United States just rejoined. Environment and climate groups doubt that the draft endorsement was significant. Maya Golden-Krasner, deputy director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, said “the API’s move would be little more than a public relations ploy, and the Biden administration shouldn’t be taking policy cues from the standard polluters’ playbook.”

Nebraska commission to intervene on natural gas prices after extreme cold in February --Nebraska regulators said Tuesday that they will intervene — for now — in the February price hikes expected on the bills of customers served by privately operated natural gas companies. Extreme cold in mid-February, from the Canadian border to Texas, caused natural gas prices on the open market to skyrocket, driving up the price that utilities pass on to customers. In portions of Nebraska it was one of the coldest mid-Februarys on record. The Nebraska Public Service Commission has regulatory authority over Black Hill Energy and NorthWestern Energy, but not municipal utilities such as Metropolitan Utilities District. Tom Glanzer, a spokesman for NorthWestern, said that the utility didn’t yet have an estimate on how the February price spikes would affect bills, but that the utility will work with the PSC to ease stress on customers. In South Dakota, for example, the increased cost will be spread over 12 months. A representative of Black Hills couldn’t be reached. MUD has estimated that the average residential customer could see an additional $17.21 on their February bill, a cost that could have been $200 higher if not for cost-saving moves made by the district. Requiring an additional 30-day grace period for paying off delinquent bills. Extending the moratorium on shutting off delinquent low-income households. Opening an investigation into price spikes that occurred as a result of the February Arctic outbreak and then assessing options. Directing the two utilities to withhold from bills, for now, the extraordinary price spikes related to the Arctic outbreak until further findings have been made.

The Fight Over The Future Of Natural Gas : Short Wave : NPR podcast - A growing number of cities are looking at restricting the use of gas in new buildings to reduce climate emissions. But some states are considering laws to block those efforts, with backing from the natural gas industry. Today, NPR science correspondent Dan Charles takes us on a tour of three cities where this is playing out:

• Lawrence, KS - Last year, the city commission adopted a goal of moving to 100 percent renewable energy. Now, the state legislature in Kansas is considering a bill that says no city in Kansas can prevent or discourage people from using natural gas from their local gas utility to heat their homes. That bill is likely to become law.
• Salt Lake City, UT - City officials here are not considering a ban. Instead, they're hoping to provide incentives to consumers that will encourage them to switch from natural gas.
• Flagstaff, AZ - Last year, the city council passed a climate emergency declaration and set in place the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2030. As part of this, officials were considering limiting new construction if plans included natural gas. But, Arizona's state legislature signed a bill into law making it illegal for cities in the state to limit these gas hookups.

30 years later, echoes of largest inland oil spill remain in Line 3 fight | MPR News - Thirty years ago Wednesday, on March 3, 1991, the Line 3 oil pipeline ruptured in Grand Rapids, Minn., spilling 1.7 million gallons of crude oil onto the frozen Prairie River.It's still the largest inland oil spill in U.S. history. Because the river was covered with ice, crews were able to keep the oil from reaching the Mississippi, 2 miles away."There would be people on the ice, squeegeeing oil on top of the ice, which was weird, everything was weird, it was like some kind of gross landscape,” Scott Hall, a reporter for Grand Rapids public radio station KAXE, told MPR News in 2018 for an episode of its Rivers of Oil podcast, which dove deep into the impacts of the spill.“And so they had hoses going down, and just sucking as much oil as they could out into these tanker trucks."About 50 people gathered at the Prairie River on the 30th anniversary of the largest inland oil spill in U.S. history. On March 3, 1991, a pipeline owned by the Lakehead Pipeline Co. ruptured, spilling about 1.7 million gallons of crude oil. The Lakehead Pipeline Co. owned Line 3, which was built in the 1960s to carry oil from Canada, at the time of the spill. And the company that succeeded Lakehead, Enbridge Energy, is now replacing that same Line 3 with a new pipeline along a different route across the state.Construction on the new line began in earnest in December. But Native American tribes and environmental groups continue to fight the $4 billion project, on the ground and in court. At least 50 people gathered at the Prairie River near the spill site in Grand Rapids Wednesday. Law enforcement issued citations to dozens of protesters after they blocked traffic on U.S. Highway 2. Protesters say the 1991 spill is an indicator of the risk that oil pipelines pose to Minnesota waters.

Enbridge's Line 3 deal-making divides Ojibwe bands in Minn. -  Last fall, Enbridge offered the Red Lake Band of Chippewa a lucrative deal if the tribe would drop legal efforts to quash the company's new pipeline across northern Minnesota. Red Lake said no. In 2018, Enbridge made an attractive offer to the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa to run part of the pipeline — a replacement for its current aging and corroding Line 3 — through its reservation. Faced with the alternative of having the new Line 3 next door with no control over it, the tribe took the deal. But it has caused lingering bad feelings with other Ojibwe. The two offers underscore Enbridge's attempts to win over the Ojibwe bands in Minnesota — and the tensions those efforts have caused as construction of the controversial pipeline enters its fourth month. "There has been an attempt [by Enbridge] to divide us, and to an extent it has," said Sam Strong, Red Lake's tribal secretary. "It's very negative, and it is their playbook." Enbridge is spending more than $3 billion on the new Line 3, one of the largest construction projects for Minnesota in recent years. Line 3 is one of six Enbridge pipelines along a similar corridor, carrying thick crude from Alberta, Canada, to Superior, Wis. The corridor crosses the Leech Lake and Fond du Lac reservations. Enbridge platted the new Line 3 partly along a new route, largely to avoid crossing reservations, but still traversing a vast swath of land where the tribes have treaty rights to hunt, gather and fish. The Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe was not only against a new pipeline on its reservation, it wanted the old Line 3 gone. So when Enbridge agreed to remove the old pipe, Leech Lake didn't oppose the new pipeline when it was approved by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC).  The other four tribes — Red Lake, Fond du Lac, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe and the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe — fought hard against the pipeline. They saw it as a desecrater of lakes, rivers and wild rice fields, a crop the Ojibwe hold sacred. "We really believe in the reciprocity of our people and the nature around us," Strong said. "Financial compensation might benefit us, but if this pipeline burst and there is a catastrophic event, would we be complicit?" White Earth, the state's largest Ojibwe band, and Red Lake continue battling Line 3 in both federal court and the Minnesota Court of Appeals. The Mille Lacs Band also is part of the state appeal, which aims to rescind the PUC's approval of Line 3. Fond du Lac, after its deal with Enbridge, dropped out of the court fight and Leech Lake never joined it.In October, before Enbridge got its final environmental permits for the project, the company offered Red Lake a bundle of economic incentives, according to documents obtained by the Star Tribune. Red Lake rejected the offer, as it has a longstanding resolution opposing Line 3, Strong said. Still, he acknowledged that Enbridge's offer caused some dissent within the tribe.

'Pipe Dream': Enbridge escalates local tensions - Indian Country Today - Berglund Park stood empty recently as families and community members huddled around warming fires in an open field nearby, listening to music and eating Indian tacos as they learned about the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline cutting through their community. A group of pipeline opponents known as water protectors from the nearby Honor the Earth camp organized the small winter carnival to provide information about the impact of dependence on fossil fuels and a future built on renewable energy.  Their routine request to use the pavilion on Feb. 4, however, was rejected by public officials who said they had “concerns” – sparking a backlash that quickly turned the small-town festival into a public fight over freedom of speech and assembly. It is also emblematic of the powerful economic clout the Canadian company holds over the region and the divisions it creates in local communities, said Shanai Matteson, a non-Native woman raised in Palisade who has joined local Indigenous groups in opposing the pipeline.“It seems like there isn’t much common ground anymore,” she told Indian Country Today. “The pipeline is ripping through the community. A lot of people feel that Line 3 is inevitable and that we’re just causing problems by protesting.”Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, director of the Center for Protest Law and Litigation in Washington, D.C., sent a letter to city and county officials challenging the decision on behalf of water protectors, including Matteson and Winona LaDuke, White Earth Band of Ojibwe, a well-known environmental justice activist and executive director of Honor the Earth.“Your offices have attempted to deprive LaDuke, Matteson and others of their lawful rights to assemble on public land,” the letter said. “Basic First Amendment rights are being deprived at the whim and direction of entities and officials, armed with the power of the state, serving essentially as private security of a private corporation whose profit interests lie in suppressing and demonizing opposition to their activities – including suppressing educational events that can impact the public’s understanding of their dangerous pipeline.”Water protectors believe they were barred from Berglund Park because leaders wanted to curb criticism of Line 3 and Enbridge, a company that has brought jobs, donations and an economic boost to Aitkin County.The windfall has created sharp divisions in the community, splitting neighbors, families and friends. Matteson believes many people in the region, including some of her own family members, signed over their lands to Enbridge without fully understanding that they had a choice in the matter.“I think they figured that since their neighbors signed with Enbridge, they had little choice,” she said. “Refusing to sign would essentially be telling your neighbors that they’re wrong.”

Leaders of tribal nations in MN ask Walz to pause Line 3 work during legal appeal -- The Minnesota Indian Affairs Council is asking Gov. Tim Walz to temporarily stop the ongoing construction of the Line 3 oil pipeline across northern Minnesota. In a letter dated Wednesday, the group, which serves as the official liaison between the state and the 11 Native nations within its borders, urged Walz to issue an executive order putting a stay on the pipeline replacement project construction while lawsuits challenging the project’s approval play out in court. “The pipeline project opens up a brand new pipeline corridor through a water-rich environment where wild rice and other plants and animals are plentiful,” the council wrote. The state’s seven Ojibwe bands, the letter continues, retain treaty-protected rights to hunt, fish and gather along the 330-mile stretch of land in the state where the pipeline is being constructed. “Clearly, the pipeline construction and operation will negatively impact the productivity of the resources throughout the pipeline corridor,” it continues. The letter from the council follows requests from the White Earth and Red Lake Nations to place a stay on the project until their appeals, along with challenges from environmental groups and the state Commerce Department, are heard in court. But those requests were denied by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission and the Minnesota Court of Appeals. Enbridge Energy has quickly ramped up construction of Line 3 since it received final permits at the end of November. Work began in earnest on Dec. 1. More than 4,000 workers are currently building the pipeline, along five different sections spread out across the length of the pipeline corridor, which stretches from far northwestern Minnesota, south past the headwaters of the Mississippi River, and east to Enbridge’s pipeline hub in Superior, Wis. Tribes and groups fighting the project have argued their appeals will be moot without a stay, since it will likely take several months for the court process to play out. Enbridge anticipates completing the pipeline by the end of September. In the letter, tribal leaders also express worry that President Joe Biden's recent decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline — which also would have carried Canadian oil into the U.S. — could embolden Enbridge to eventually build more pipelines in the new Line 3 corridor. "President Biden's decision to stop the Keystone XL pipeline has essentially handed Enbridge a monopoly for exporting tar sands out of Canada," the letter reads. "This does not bode well for us."

Republicans used oil industry-backed study to criticize Deb Haaland - Republican senators cited a study commissioned by the biggest oil and gas trade association in the US in their criticisms of Deb Haaland, Joe Biden’s nominee to lead the Department of the Interior, during a confirmation hearing last week. Republicans on the Senate energy and natural resources committee referenced the study, which has been widely criticized by conservationists, as they grilled Haaland, a Democratic US representative from New Mexico, on her past statements about energy issues and the Biden administration’s climate plans. At issue in particular was the administration’s 60-day pause on new federal oil and gas leases, which several senators mischaracterized as a “ban”. All Republicans on the committee have received significant campaign contributions from oil and gas political action committees and employees, and some are personally invested in the industry, as the Guardian and the Center for Media and Democracy recently reported. Haaland, who would be the first Native American cabinet secretary, supports the Green New Deal and opposes fracking on federal land. As secretary of the interior, she would implement Biden’s climate agenda, which, though relatively ambitious, may not go as far as she would prefer. As they criticized Haaland and Biden’s stance on federal leases, two of the senators cited projected job losses from a ban on federal oil and gas extraction that came from a study commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute(API). API is the country’s biggest oil and gas trade association and spent millions of dollars to help elect Republicans to Congress in the 2020 cycle.John Barrasso of Wyoming, the ranking member on the committee and a top Senate recipient of oil and gas contributions, cited the institute’s September 2020 study three times during the hearings, and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi referenced it once.On 23 February, Barrasso listed the study’s projected job losses for the states that committee members represent, leading with Haaland’s state of New Mexico (62,000 jobs) and his state of Wyoming (33,000). “My question is for you: why not just let these workers keep their jobs?” asked Barrasso. Conservationists have criticized the study. It considers a permanent ban on new and existing leases, not the current 60-day pause on only new leases, and predicts job losses over a two-year period. The energy news website DeSmog noted that for New Mexico, these predicted job losses far exceeded the total number of employees in the oil and gas extraction industry, and described the claim as “staggering”.

DAPL protester fighting grand jury jailed again; Martinez also now being fined -- A Dakota Access Pipeline protester who is refusing to provide testimony to a federal grand jury is once again behind bars, his supporters say.Steve Martinez was held in contempt Wednesday for the second time in a month and jailed as a federal prisoner, according to supporters. He had been free for about a week, after being released Feb. 22 following 19 straight days of incarceration in the Burleigh Morton Detention Center. Grand jury proceedings are secret, and the government does not confirm them, much less talk publicly about them. Martinez's supporters say the grand jury is investigating a violent clash between protesters and law officers more than four years ago that became the emblematic skirmish of the prolonged protest against the pipeline that's now moving Bakken oil east. A New York City woman who suffered a serious arm injury is suing law officers and Morton County, seeking millions of dollars. Martinez is the one who drove Sophia Wilansky to get medical aid. He's refusing to testify about it because he believes authorities are trying to suppress the anti-DAPL movement. Martinez, 46, is originally from Pueblo, Colorado, but he's lived in Bismarck since November 2017. He received his first grand jury subpoena in December 2016, and about 40 of his supporters rallied outside the federal courthouse in Bismarck in January 2017. A federal judge refused to quash the subpoena, but prosecutors later withdrew it without giving a reason. They subpoenaed Martinez again last November, according to his attorneys. He was jailed Feb. 3 for not complying, released on a technicality about three weeks later, but immediately given another subpoena. He could be imprisoned for up to 1 ½ years -- the maximum length of the grand jury proceeding. He also is now being fined $50 per day but "continues to stand in solidarity with his Indigenous relatives," according to his supporters.The pipeline has been operating since June 2017, though American Indian tribes are still fighting in court to try to get it shut down. Tribes and environmental advocates fear an oil leak would contaminate the Missouri River.  The protest over six months in 2016-17 resulted in more than 750 arrests.

How Closing DAPL Would Impact Bakken Crude Oil Producers  --When it finally came online in mid-2017, the Dakota Access Pipeline was a lifesaver for Bakken crude oil producers. For years, they had suffered from takeaway-capacity shortfalls that forced many shippers to rely on higher-cost crude-by-rail, sapping producer profits in the process. Then came DAPL, which provides straight-shot pipeline access to a key Midwest oil hub, and its sister pipe — the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP) — which takes crude from there to the Gulf Coast. Problem solved, right? Not exactly. Now, there’s at least an outside chance that a shutdown order is issued as soon as early April in connection with the ongoing federal district court process, with the timeline for a physical closure of the pipe still to be determined. A shutdown may last for only a few months but could potentially last much longer. Where does this uncertainty leave Bakken producers, many of whom have been hoping to benefit from the recent run-up in crude oil prices by ramping up their output this spring? Today, we discuss recent upstream and midstream developments in the U.S.’s second-largest shale/tight-oil play. While it was being developed, DAPL was among the most controversial pipeline projects in the U.S., second only perhaps to TC Energy’s Keystone XL, which remains in limbo (and only partially built) after President Biden canceled KXL’s Presidential Permit his first day in office. Opposition to DAPL didn’t stop when it began commercial operation 45 months ago today. On March 25, 2020, U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg ruled in a lawsuit filed by the Standing Rock Sioux tribe that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers violated the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) when, in February 2017, it issued DAPL’s developers an easement under Lake Oahe — a large reservoir near the tribe’s reservation in central South Dakota (see Figure 1) — without preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS). Three-plus months, later, on July 6, Boasberg ordered that the Corps’s easement be vacated and that DAPL be taken out of service until the Corps completed the EIS, a process expected to take a year or more. The U.S. Court of Appeals on August 5 stayed the District Court judge’s order that the pipeline be shut down during the preparation of the EIS, and the Corps announced on September 10 that it had formally started the process of preparing the environmental report. On January 27, 2021, the Court of Appeals affirmed the parts of Boasberg’s ruling vacating the Corps’s Lake Oahe easement and directing the Corps to finish the EIS but reversed the parts of Boasberg’s ruling requiring the pipeline to be shut down. Separately, Judge Boasberg is considering a second motion filed by the Standing Rock Tribe for an injunction to shut down DAPL. After the Court of Appeals’ late-January ruling, Boasberg scheduled a February 10 status conference to discuss the tribe’s injunction motion and how the Corps expects to proceed now that the appellate court has confirmed that its easement is vacated. A day before the planned meeting, the Corps asked that it be delayed to April 9, and Boasberg agreed. For its part, the Standing Rock Tribe has been arguing that, with the easement for DAPL’s crossing under Lake Oahe vacated, the pipeline should be shut down immediately and shouldn’t be allowed to be restarted unless and until an EIS has been approved. Energy Transfer, which owns the largest share of DAPL and operates the pipeline, said during its quarterly earnings call on February 17 that the pipeline has been operating safely for almost four years now and that it does not see a scenario under which the pipeline will be ordered offline.

California City Bans New Gas Stations, Says No More Pumps -The Petaluma, California, City Council unanimously moved to ban new gas stations, and existing stations will not be allowed to add any new gas pumps. Electrek discusses Petaluma's Ban on New Gas Stations.Existing gas stations aren’t being shut down in Petaluma. It’s just that no new ones will be built, because there are enough – one within a five-minute drive of every residential area in the city, in fact, as the Santa Rosa Press Democrat writes. The plan is to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, and Petaluma’s City Council, with a population of around 60,000, feels its 16 existing gas stations is enough. Petaluma is the first seed planted, and many will follow and sprout, first in California, and then in other US states like Washington. For example, the Coalition Opposing New Gas Stations (CONGAS) is working to ban gas stations in Sonoma County, California, and its nine cities.Just as the world is moving away from coal and other fossil fuels and toward green energy, so too will towns and cities follow in Petaluma’s footsteps by deciding they have enough gas stations as EV numbers rise and ICE cars fall. The number of charging stations will multiply, and the number of gas stations will shrink.

Democrat Katie Porter says to target Big Oil in new role as natural resources chair  (Reuters) - U.S. Representative Katie Porter, who has earned a reputation for grilling bank and drug company executives during Congressional hearings, told Reuters she will focus on a new target in her new role as chair of the House Natural Resources Oversight Committee: Big Oil. The position will make the California Democrat a key player in U.S. energy policy as President Joe Biden puts curbs on federal fossil fuel development at the center of a plan to fight climate change. Biden paused new federal oil and gas leases, source of about a quarter of U.S. petroleum production, shortly after taking office in a move widely seen as a first step toward delivering on his campaign promise of a permanent ban. Porter is one of several Democratic lawmakers that introduced a set of bills this week to reform federal oil and gas leasing regulations, including by raising royalty rates for the first time in a century - proposals that could impact existing leases even if new leases are eventually phased out. “How can things not have gone up as I see the cost of my everyday expenses -- healthcare, childcare, college, housing -- all go up?” Porter said. “This is not a coincidence. This takes intense lobbying work by the fossil fuel industry to prevent these changes.” Porter introduced a bill that would boost the amount oil companies must pay on their federal onshore production to 18.75% from 12%, a rate that has not changed since 1920, and also increase minimum bids in lease auctions to $5 per acre from $2. “I confess when I first heard the term ‘oil and gas royalty rates’ I didn’t immediately feel a deep emotional sort of reaction to fighting the issue. But as I began to understand what’s really at stake, which is oil and gas companies taking our public resources at pennies on the dollar, I began to feel outraged,” she said. A second-term Congresswoman from California, Porter has become a social media sensation after her rapid-fire grilling of powerful executives over issues like compensation and drugs pricing. She is perhaps best known for scrawling on what Twitter dubbed her “whiteboard of truth” during committee meetings -a prop she will use in her new oversight role. Porter said that as a professor who taught classes about bankruptcy, she enjoys teaching esoteric policy and making it real for people. “Our public lands are not a speculative investment,” she said. “They are a national treasure.”

Oil Sands Give OPEC a Boost  -- Major oil sands producers in Western Canada will idle almost half a million barrels a day of production next month, helping tighten global supplies as oil prices surge. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.’s plans to conduct 30 days of maintenance at its Horizon oil sands upgrader in April will curtail roughly 250,000 barrels a day of light synthetic crude output, company President Tim McKay said in an interview Thursday. Work on the Horizon upgrader coincides with maintenance at other cites. Suncor Energy Inc. plans a major overhaul of its U2 crude upgrader, cutting output by 130,000 barrels a day over the entire second quarter. Syncrude Canada Ltd. will curb 70,000 barrels a day during the quarter because of maintenance in a unit. The supply cuts out of Northern Alberta, following a surprise OPEC+ decision to not increase output next month, could add more support to the recent rally in crude prices. OPEC+ had been debating whether to restore as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of output in April but decided to wait. The Saudi-led alliance closely monitors other major oil producers as it seeks to manage the entire global market, and surging production in North America was its biggest headache in recent years -- especially from U.S. shale but also from Canada. “The U.S., Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Brazil and other well endowed countries with hydrocarbon reserves -- we need to work with each other, collaboratively,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said after the group’s meeting on Thursday. Canada’s contribution to balancing the market with less production, much like slowing output in the U.S., is not a deliberate market-management strategy but significant nonetheless. Even though the output cuts are short-term, the battered oil-sands industry shouldn’t be a concern for the Saudis in the long run either, judging from McKay’s outlook for the industry. “I can’t see much growth in the oil sands happening because there is going to be less demand in the future,”

Keystone Pipeline Co. Taps Lobbyist Brother of Biden Adviser - A lobbying firm run by the brother of White House counselor Steve Ricchetti has signed the Canadian-based company behind the Keystone XL pipeline project, which President Joe Biden effectively halted upon taking office. Jeff Ricchetti, who runs Ricchetti Inc., will be lobbying on behalf of TC Energy Corp., regarding “legislative issues affecting energy infrastructure, the safe and efficient transportation of natural gas,” according to a disclosure form recently filed with the Senate. The presidential permitting for the pipeline to link oil sands in Canada to U.S. refiners was approved by the Trump administration after previously being rejected by President Barack Obama. On his first day in office, Biden issued an executive action revoking the Keystone XL pipeline’s cross-border presidential permit. The pipeline has drawn strong criticism from environmentalists but is backed by the energy and construction industries as well as the Canadian government.

USD Group nearing completion of Hardisty-to-Port Arthur, crude-by-rail network | S&P Global Platts — The US Development Group is nearing a mid-year completion of its rail terminal network from Alberta to the Texas Gulf Coast that would move more heavy Canadian crude specifically designed for long-haul rail transport, the company said March 4. The USD Group-Gibson Energy joint venture includes building a diluent recovery unit at its Hardisty terminal hub and a new Port Arthur terminal in Texas that would receive the oil sands crude by rail. The diluent recovery unit is designed to remove the diluent from the Canadian bitumen. The resulting crude is called DRUbit, a proprietary heavy Canadian crude oil specifically designed for safer rail transport. The remaining diluent, which is mostly condensate, then goes back to the mining and processing facilities to be blended with the heavy oil sands to prepare crude for pipeline transport. USD CEO Dan Borgen said March 4 that construction would be finished by the end of the second quarter, but that commissioning and startup could extend into early in the third quarter. "We are progressing on schedule and on budget," Borgen said on the company's earnings call. "We are pleased to see the industry begin to get behind the program." The diluent recovery unit would start out by processing 50,000 b/d that is contracted with ConocoPhillips and eventually ramp up to at least 100,000 b/d, he said. The crude would move to the USGC along the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern railway networks. Apart from the new Port Arthur terminal, crude volumes also can ship to USD's existing Texas Deepwater hub in Houston. "The return to normal in Canada is actually happening at a faster rate than in the US," Borgen said. "We are now moving into where crude-by-rail matters." Indeed, Canadian oil production has recovered from its pre-pandemic volumes of about 5 million b/d of crude oil, condensate and diluent, while US production is still down by at least 2 million b/d from its pre-COVID-19 volumes. Imports of Canadian crude to the US Midwest and USGC combined are expected to recover to around 2.9 million b/d in March from less than 2.6 million b/d in May 2020, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. However, crude-by-rail volumes are not yet recovered and may take quite some time. Canadian crude-by-rail exports plunged from an all-time high of 411,991 b/d in February 2020 to an eight-year low of 38,867 b/d in July as the pandemic took hold. Exports have since rebounded to 190,454 b/d in December, according to the Canada Energy Regulator.

Valero looks to reroute Mexico imports, double capacity as it finalizes storage network -- Valero is looking to reroute its fuel imports to Mexico, while more than doubling its storage capacity, as the company finalizes the construction of a network of terminals in the country by 2022, ahead of an expected recovery in demand, the company's Mexico head of operations said March 5. Valero will be in a position to import all the fuel it distributes in Mexico through two Gulf of Mexico import terminals in the ports of Altamira and Veracruz for which the company has long-term contracts. The terminals will feed a network of smaller inland terminals by rail, Valero's Carlos Garcia told S&P Global Platts. "Our goal is to supply the Mexican market with fuels that have been produced at our refineries through a network that we control, so that we can ensure the quality of the product and reliability of the supply," Garcia said. Valero began its Mexican operations in 2018 with terminals in the states of Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon that were supplied by rail from its refinery in McKee, Texas, Garcia said. When Valero's network of terminals under development is completed, the company will have a total storage capacity of roughly 6 million barrels in key areas of the country, he said. This will allow Valero to stop bringing fuels to Mexico from Houston by rail. "We will only use rail to move the product inland, which is safer than trucks," Garcia said. Valero is the world's largest independent oil refiner, with an output of more than 3 million b/d of refined products from its refineries, mostly located in Texas. According to data from Mexico's Energy Secretariat, private companies operating in the country imported 337,000 b/d of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel over 2020. Valero imported a little over 40,000 b/d into Mexico in 2020, Garcia said. The Veracruz terminal, the largest of the planned terminals in Mexico, with a total capacity of 2.1 million barrels, was recently completed by IEnova, the Mexico unit of California-based Sempra Energy. IEnova is also building two 640,000/b terminals in the Puebla and Mexico City region, also under long-term contracts with Valero. The three terminals will create a network that will allow Valero to better serve the center of the country, Garcia said.

Analysis: How Exxon Is Being Forced To Accept The Reality Of Bad Fossil Fuel Investments - Last August, ExxonMobil warned that it may need to remove 20 percent of its oil and gas proved reserves from its books. While that was a shocking number from the oil major, reality proved to be even more of a shock to the company. On February 24, Exxon reported that it would actuallyremove over 30 percent of its proved reserves from its books — essentially wiping out the value of its Canadian tar sands holdings from its books.According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proved reservesare “the estimated quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids which geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.”Proved reserves are the concept on which the whole oil business is based. It is a main factor in how oil and gas companies are valued and in determining how much money banks will loan companies. Much of oil and gas lending is known as reserved-based lending.Exxon’s latest move is even more remarkable, however, because it has a reputation for being resistant to properly valuing reserves, often lagging behind the other oil major companies in making these downward adjustments.In this case, the market — and the SEC— forced Exxon’s hand on the matter. SEC rules require that oil and gas companies value reserves based on the average price of oil from the previous 12 months.  In its latest SEC filing released this week, Exxon explains that this requirement essentially meant removing all of the value for its Canadian tar sands investments from its reserves.Along with wiping out the value of its tar sands holdings, Exxon also noted that it wrote off “approximately 1.5 billion oil-equivalent barrels, mainly related to unconventional drilling in the United States.” Unconventional drilling refers to the fracking business, which has been a financial disaster for many of those involved.

Israeli court slaps 7-day gag order on oil spill - A Haifa court slapped a seven-day gag order on the investigation into the source of a huge oil leak that has polluted Israel’s entire Mediterranean coast with tar. The ruling by the Haifa Magistrate’s Court came at the request of the Environmental Protection Ministry, which is probing the spill. The order prohibits publishing any details that may identify suspects, vessels, relevant ports, cargo and shipping lines, according to The Times of Israel. The Environmental Protection Ministry secured satellite images, dated February 11, of a suspicious black patch on the sea surface some 50 kilometers (31 miles) off the coast and footage showing 10 ships that were in the area around that time. Maya Jacobs, who heads the Zalul marine protection organization, reacted to the court order by saying, “When those active in the sea and creating the dangers of spills are wealthy oil and shipping companies with influence over regulators, Zalul demands a transparent investigation and the removal of the order.” Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel pledged that authorities would use every means possible to locate whoever was responsible for the spill and prosecute. She announced that she had agreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on submitting a proposal for government approval on Monday for immediate funding for beach rehabilitation and advancement of legislation on preparedness for marine spills that should have been passed years ago. Meanwhile, nine local authorities belonging to the Sharon Carmel Towns Association stopped cleanup work at contaminated beaches under their jurisdiction Monday, after the Finance Ministry refused to approve a program and budget submitted by the Environmental Protection Ministry.

Israel clears Greek tanker over Mediterranean oil spill -- Israeli authorities said Sunday they had cleared a Greek tanker of suspicion in relation to an oil spill that caused massive tar pollution on the Mediterranean coastline, devastating marine life. It is seen as Israel's worst maritime pollution incident in decades. Powerful winds and unusually high waves pummelled Israel's entire Mediterranean coastline on February 17, with tonnes of tar staining 160 kilometres (96 miles) of beach from its borders with the Gaza Strip to Lebanon. Volunteers have teamed up with authorities to clean the beaches, while officials from the environmental protection ministry launched an investigation into the source of the spill. After an Israeli media report had named the Greek oil tanker Minerva Helen as a possible culprit, the ship's owner, Minerva Marine Inc., firmly denied any connection to the spill. On Sunday, the ministry said that "following an inspection conducted in Greece on the Minerva Helen tanker, it has been cleared of suspicion of involvement in the severe tar event on Israel's beaches". The ship's owner said the Israeli media report was an "unfounded an inaccurate allegation". It said the ship had been in the Mediterranean in the days before the storm, "without any cargo on board" and therefore could not be linked to a spill. The company also pledged to "cooperate with any relevant authority" interested in the Minerva Helen's movements. On Saturday, in the Greek port city of Piraeus, Israeli inspectors conducted "an extensive examination" of the Minerva Helen that "positively ruled out the vessel as the source of the pollution", the environmental protection ministry said in a statement. The investigation was conducted in coordination with Greek authorities, with assistance from the Hellenic Coast Guard, the ministry added.

Cyprus coast not affected by oil spill off Israel - The fisheries department said no signs of tar have been seen on the Cypriot coastline, as neighbouring Israel is dealing with what has been described as one of the worst ecological disasters in decades following a large oil spill from an unknown source. In a statement on Thursday, the department said it had been notified around a week ago by Israel’s ministry of environmental protection about the pollution in its sea and coast. Since then, it added, the department has been closely monitoring Cyprus’ maritime area through satellite images received from the European Maritime Safety Agency for images of possible oil spills. So far, there has been no depiction of a possible oil spill in Cyprus’ maritime area, it said. Moreover, the search and rescue coordination centre informed Israeli authorities that there had not been any marine incident or marine oil pollution up until February 17 in Cyprus’ area. Responding to a request by the Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea (REMPEC), the Department of Fisheries and Marine Research sent satellite images taken on February 6 and 12, depicting possible oil spills, to be further assessed, it added. Israel has been tackling a large oil spill from an unknown source, which reportedly devastated sea life and dumped tonnes of tar across the coastline from Israel to southern Lebanon. The thick clumps of tar showed up on the neighbouring country’s beaches.

Mystery Israeli oil spill leads to multimillion dollar clean-up - A massive oil spill off the coast of Israel is being called the worst ecological disasters in the Mediterranean country’s history. The cause and full extent of the damage is still unknown, but Israeli authorities are investigating. Several tankers are under suspicion. The spill was discovered when patches of tar began washing up on more than 100 miles of Israel’s coastline this past week. According to the Times of Israel, some 70 tons of tar and contaminated material have been scraped off and collected along the country’s shores since cleanup efforts began. Beaches have been shut down, and the sale of fish and other seafood from the area is now prohibited. The Israeli government approved a $13.8 million response budget that will come from the state’s Fund for the Prevention of Marine Pollution, created some 40 years ago to pay for cleanups as well as equipment and training to respond to oil spills. There is still a fog of war with respect to what happened. Ten ships are under investigation including the Greek ship, called the Minerva Helen, which was an initial focus of authorities according to the Times of Israel. Minerva Marine, a longstanding player in the sector with a current fleet of dozens of tankers, said in a statement that the allegations were “unfounded and inaccurate” and claim to have evidence that the vessel was in no way involved. Whoever is found responsible, this disaster will raise questions about how the regulations and liability of oil spills and environmental pollution are handled. The Israeli Minister of Environmental Protection, Gila Gamliel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu headed to the port town of Ashdod on Monday to assess the damage. The director of Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority, Shaul Goldstein, said that the spill will setback ecological renewal and protection efforts by decades. Curiously, a court in Haifa issued a gag order, prohibiting the publication of incident details. Officials says that the restrictions are in place to avoid undermining the investigation:

IMO regional pollution centre assists with oil spill incident in Israel - The IMO-administered Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea (REMPEC) is assisting the competent authorities of Israel with technical expertise regarding the beaching of a large quantities of tar balls on the Israeli shoreline.The cause of the pollution is yet to be identified. As of 23 February 2021, 1,000m3 of tar balls have already been collected.REMPEC is supporting the identification of the source of the pollution by obtaining information from satellite images from Maritime Support Service (EMSA). So far, 10 vessels have been found to have been in the vicinity of the possible original position of the spill and the investigation continues.The Centre has also invited neighbouring countries to report any pollution in the last three weeks. No pollution has been reported by countries who responded.The REMPEC Mediterranean Assistance Unit (MAU) is working to assess the potential impact to neighbouring countries. This will be done using the results of forecasting model from the Mediterranean Operational Network for the Global Ocean Observing System (MONGOOS), a Member of the MAU. The Centre is also in contact with the Lebanese Competent Authorities, following reports of pollution of the Lebanese shoreline.

 Volunteers struggle to clean oil spill as new stains keep arriving - Volunteers are struggling to clean the shores of Israel after a large-scale tar pollution which still has repercussions as new stains arrive to what were fairly cleaned beaches, the Environmental Protection Ministry said on Sunday. Pollution levels at Rosh HaNikra beach went up to moderate-heavy as new stains washed ashore. While many beaches are depicted as blue (very light) on the pollution ‘Stop-Light’ map created by the ministry, Dor Beach is orange (light to moderate) and a spot on Hof Hasharon park is red (moderate to heavy). Some tar was carried ashore to Tel Baruch beach in Tel Aviv, Bustan HaGalil shore, and Havat HaMaychalim beach in Haifa. The ministry explained that the rocks on these shores make cleaning operations hard and cautioned that further stains can hit the beaches in the future according to currents and sea-level changes. Some 70 tons of toxic tar had already been cleaned from Israel’s beaches last week, the Nature and Parks authority announced. However, the ministry believes that around 1.2 kilotons (1,200 tons) of tar has so far washed ashore since the spill. Volunteers and wildlife experts are hard at work to clean the shores and save the lives of seagulls and sea turtles injured by the tar. It is suspected that a young whale had died as a result of the pollution.

 Israel eliminates 12 of 35 vessels suspected in oil spill --The oil spill that has caused the contamination of almost the entire stretch of Israel’s Mediterranean coast with tar is “without doubt a case of malice,” Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel told a press briefing Monday. “Either the ship dumped oil into the sea on purpose, or the oil leaked out because of a fault,” she said. Either way, the ship’s owner “lacked compassion toward [marine] wildlife and nature and did not inform the authorities.” Tar contamination has affected 160 kilometers (100 miles) of the Mediterranean coastline’s 195 kilometers (121 miles), with tar still washing up on many beaches. It has also polluted beaches in Lebanon. The Environment Ministry believes that a spill identified 44 kilometers (27 miles) off shore on February 11 was responsible for the disaster. According to the Financial Times, 210 vessels passed within 50 kilometers of the shores of Israel and Lebanon between February 10 and 12. Gamliel said Monday that the ministry had investigated 35 vessels over recent days, eliminating 12 of them. Rani Amir, who directs the ministry’s National Unit for the Protection of the Marine Environment, pushed back against criticism of a lack of advance warning technology such as access to satellite images, saying that most of the contamination would have been inevitable anyway, especially as stormy weather would have prevented sending boats out to surround the slick and treat it at sea. He added that divers would not be sent to retrieve blocks of tar from the seabed until laboratory results determine exactly what the leaked substance is and whether the waters are safe. Gamliel also said that plans to increase the flow of oil through the southern port of Eilat looked like a “step in the wrong direction” and called for an urgent discussion by all relevant government bodies. In October, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the state-owned Europe-Asia Pipeline Co. (EAPC), formerly the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Co., and MED-RED Land Bridge, a joint Israeli-UAE venture, to use Israel as a land bridge between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean for the transport of Gulf oil to markets in Europe.

Lebanon seeks U.N. help over Mediterranean oil spill pollution - Lebanon's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday moved to file a report with the U.N. in which it asked for technical assistance in the face of a Mediterranean oil spill that has contaminated at least half of coastline. The report, prepared by the National Council for Scientific Research at the request of caretaker PM Hassan Diab, highlights the magnitude of the damage, describes it as an environmental disaster and warns that the recovery could take several years, the National News Agency said. The report also calls on the U.N. to “determine the reasons behind this spill and identify the culprit so that Lebanon can demand compensations for the severe environmental damage it has incurred.” “This is considered an environmental disaster and (Lebanon) has no ability to address it and contain its protracted damage” on its own, the report says. MP Enaya Ezzeddine of the Development and Liberation bloc has said that the amount of tar that has polluted the sand beaches of south Lebanon in recent days has been estimated to be at around two tons. “The cleaning process will be arduous and painstaking and it requires followup and cooperation between municipalities, scout associations and local, national and international NGOs and environmental groups,” Ezzeddine added. Lebanese on Saturday raked balls of tar away from a turtle beach in the South after a massive slick washed ashore after hitting neighboring Israel. A storm more than a week ago threw tons of the sticky, black substance onto the beaches of Israel, apparently after leaking from a ship. Within days the spill had spread to south Lebanon, where clumps of tar contaminated beaches stretching from the border town of Naqoura to the southern city of Tyre, all the way to the capital Beirut. The swathe of coastline, which includes some of the country's best preserved beaches, is a nesting site for turtles which usually appear later in the year. On Saturday morning, mask-clad volunteers and members of the civil defense sifted blobs of tar out of sand on the beach of the Tyre Coast Nature Reserve, an AFP journalist said. The protected zone covers 3.8 square kilometers of beach as well as adjacent sea waters. As well as endangered loggerhead and green sea turtles, the beach provides shelter for the Arabian spiny mouse.

 Israel finds ship behind oil spill off its coast, ministry says -- Israel has located the ship responsible for an oil spill that blackened its beaches with tar last month, the environment ministry said on Wednesday, without giving details. The country’s investigation has focused on an unidentified ship that passed about 50 km (30 miles) off the coast on Feb. 11 as the likely source of what environmentalist groups are calling an ecological disaster that could take years to clean up. Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel will give more details about the ship later on Wednesday, her ministry said. Clumps of sticky black tar from the spill have also washed up on the coasts of south Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. The ministry, which has been working with European agencies, had conducted a broad search that it said included dozens of vessels.

 Chevron Pacific Indonesia says Dumai oil spill is not toxic waste PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia or CPI on late Sunday evening acknowledged that there had been a pipe leakage from one of its pipes located at the Port Of Chevron Pacific Indonesia-Dumai in the Riau Province. This incident occurred at 14:50 Western Indonesia Time (WIB) on Saturday, February 27, according to the oil firm’s corporate communications manager Sonitha Poernomo in a statement on the following day of February 28. The spokesperson was unable to explain the detailed amount of crude oil that spilled to the area’s waters as it is currently being calculated by the firm’s mitigation team. However, the firm’s early estimates conclude that it does not reach thousands of barrels. “At the time the pipes in the port were not in use and field officials immediately cleaned the area and fixed the leaking pipe,” said Sonitha Poernomo. She assured that the crude oil spill is not hazardous and toxic waste (B3 waste) as it was confirmed that it came from the company’s port pipeline. Upon mitigating further loss, Chevron Pacific Indonesia installed oil booms to prevent a broader spread of oil and constantly cleaned the oils that managed to escape the pipes. The company has also worked together with the Dumai City administration to further protect local residents and the environment. Dumai chief of environmental pollution control, Afdal Syamsir, said local officials have mobilized mitigation teams to the site of the oil spill and prevented further losses to the environment.

Iran launches vessel to deal with oil spill in Gulf (Xinhua) -- Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) has launched a home-made oil spill response vessel (OSRV) to boost environment protection efforts in the Gulf, the Press TV reported Thursday. The ship is 55.5 meters long, 13 meters wide and six meters in height. It has a draft of four meters and a storage capacity of 550 cubic meters for recovered oil, according to the report. The OSRV is also equipped with a 350-meter drum oil skimmer, a dispersant system, a powerful pump and an electronically controlled diesel engine that allows it to sail with a speed of 16 knots, it said. The PMO has spent 25.27 million U.S. dollars on building the vessel, which is fully designed by Iranian shipbuilders, it added.

Offshore Project Commitments Set for Record Boost  - According to a new Rystad Energy report, offshore project commitments are expected to not only recover going forward but their number is also set to reach a new record in the five-year period towards 2025.The report showed that the commitment count is forecasted to hit 592 projects from the beginning of 2021 up until the end of 2025, with growth expected across shallow water (0-410 feet), deepwater (410-4,921 feet) and ultra-deepwater (beyond 4,921 feet) depth levels. Total offshore project commitments declined during 2016-2020 to 355 projects, from 478 during 2011-2015, Rystad highlighted.Shallow water commitments are expected to take the largest share of the total offshore project pie, rising to 356 from 206 in the last five years, and 323 projects during 2011-2015. The number of deepwater projects is forecasted to rise to 181, from 106 in 2016-2020 and 115 in the five years before that. Rystad noted that it was expecting about 55 ultra-deepwater projects from this year until 2025, which it outlined was up from 43 in the previous five years.Ultra-deepwater activity is projected to be primarily concentrated in South America, with over 50 percent of the total committed value, while the Middle East is likely to lead shelf developments with 40 percent of the total value, Rystad highlighted. Deepwater investments are forecasted to be less dependent on any particular region, with a quarter of greenfield expenditure expected in Europe.“The growth in commitments will stimulate rising demand for floating production, storage and offloading vessels as well as subsea tiebacks,” Rajiv Chandrasekhar, an energy service analyst at Rystad, said in a company statement.“The search for large new fields in deep and remote waters became much more economically viable after dayrates for drilling rigs and offshore supply vessels fell in the wake of the oil price crash in 2014 and 2015. This offers significant support for companies interested in deepwater,” he added.For the purpose of its analysis, Rystad defined that a project is committed when more than 25 percent of its overall greenfield capital expenditure is awarded through contracts.

  Murban futures aim to consolidate UAE position as global oil power, but uptake may take time — Abu Dhabi's move to launch its Murban oil futures contract this month will strengthen its position as a global oil power, but challenges over adoption remain, according to leading experts and analysts. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has confirmed that trading of the contract will begin on March 29, marking a major change in how the oil rich emirate prices its crude exports. Murban is Abu Dhabi's flagship crude grade and makes up more than half of the UAE's total output. "What it does show is that Abu Dhabi and the UAE is continuing to consolidate its role as a major producer in the future," Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS-Markit, told CNBC on Thursday. "It continues to add capacity and sees itself as a global economic hub, and it wants that reflected in the crude stream," Yergin told CNBC's "Capital Connection." Wider impact After its launch was delayed by nearly a year due to regulatory hurdles, the futures contract for Murban, trading on the new ICE Futures Abu Dhabi Exchange, will let the market determine the price of Abu Dhabi's oil and replace the less transparent retroactive pricing methods that have been used in years past. "The announcement further cements ADNOC's shift toward benchmarking Murban as a price setter for the Middle East crude market, particularly for light sour barrels, a plan that has been in motion for several years," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects said. It may take time for Murban to gain a foothold in the pricing of Mideast Gulf crude exports, with many companies likely to take a wait-and see stance. Azlin Ahmad CRUDE OIL EDITOR, ARGUS MEDIA However, experts are divided over whether the contract will dramatically elevate the status of the grade among its rivals or expand its share in the increasingly competitive Asian markets, where 90% of Murban is sold. Abu Dhabi also thinks the futures contract can be used as a regional benchmark to price other crudes from the Gulf, but concerns around adoption remain. "Murban has the potential to be a significant development in the evolution of crude trading in the Middle East, but we'll have to see how readily the market adopts the contract," Herman Wang, managing editor of OPEC and Middle East news at S&P Global Platts, told CNBC. 'It may take time' Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Gulf, currently uses a method linked to Omani crude futures traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. Most other producers base their monthly crude price on the Dubai and Oman crude price assessments operated by S&P Global Platts. "In a market that tends to hold on to familiar benchmarks, even if flawed, for a long time, it is difficult to see who, beyond ADNOC, might be the first to explore this new pricing option," Azlin Ahmad, crude oil editor at Argus Media, said in a recent research note. "All this suggests that it may take time for Murban to gain a foothold in the pricing of Mideast Gulf crude exports, with many companies likely to take a wait-and see stance."

Saudi and Russia are at loggerheads again, but OPEC meeting 'unlikely to ruin the oil party' - — A group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers will hold a crucial meeting on Thursday to discuss reversing some of the output cuts it made last year. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market. The group last year agreed to restrict the amount of oil it produces in an effort to prop up oil prices as strict public health measures coincided with an unprecedented fuel demand shock. This week's supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook. OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia has publicly encouraged allied partners to remain "extremely cautious" on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to navigate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has indicated it wants to push ahead with a supply increase. Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected. At an industry event last month, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reportedly said to those trying to foresee the energy alliance's next move: "Don't try to predict the unpredictable." Both Saudi and Russia 'will get what they want' Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via telephone that he believed OPEC and non-OPEC partners had done an "amazing job" in rebalancing the market. However, while the global oil demand is recovering, he warned that the recovery is still "very, very fragile." "What really matters here is Russia and Saudi Arabia. The breakeven price for Russia's budget is much lower than that of Saudi Arabia, so you will see a kind of gap in the views between these two countries," Varga said. OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since taken on voluntary cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March.Alexander Novak, Russia's deputy prime minister, appeared to signal Moscow's intent for a supply increase last month, claiming the market has already balanced. "Russia wants to move back towards normal production as quickly as possible while Saudi Arabia wants to enjoy high prices a little while longer and rather keep the market on the tight side than the loose side. We think both will get what they want," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, said in a research note. Russia will likely be allowed to increase output further, he added, while Saudi Arabia will return "some or potentially all" of its 1 million barrels per day unilateral cut. Analysts expect OPEC+ to discuss allowing as much as 1.3 million barrels per day back into the market on Thursday.

Oil dips as Chinese fuel demand doubts outweigh vaccines, U.S. stimulus hopes - Oil prices were up on Monday as fears that Chinese oil crude consumption is slowing overshadowed rising optimism about COVID-19 vaccinations and a U.S. economic stimulus package increasing fuel demand. Brent crude fell 81 cents, or 1.3%, to trade at $63.61 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 97 cents, or 1.58%, to trade at $60.53 per barrel. Both contracts finished February 18% higher. China's factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, sounding alarms over Chinese crude buying and pressuring oil prices. "One negative is more and more talk about Chinese oil demand maybe faltering, that they bought all the oil that they're going to need for a while," . "There's some talk that their strategic reserves are filled up, and so some people are betting against the Chinese continuing to drive oil prices." Support for the market came from rising COVID-19 vaccinations stirring up economic activity along with a $1.9 trillion coronavirus-related relief package passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday. If approved by the Senate, the stimulus package would pay for vaccines and medical supplies, and send a new round of emergency financial aid to households and small businesses, which will have a direct impact on energy demand. The approval of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 shot also buoyed the economic outlook. Outside of China, some manufacturing data was positive, helping to keep prices from moving lower. German activity hit its highest level in more than three years and Euro zone factory activity raced along, driven by rising demand. OPEC oil output fell in February as a voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia added to agreed reductions under a pact with allies, a Reuters survey found, ending a run of seven consecutive monthly increases. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, meet on Thursday and could discuss allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day of crude back into the market. ING analysts said OPEC+ needs to avoid surprising traders by releasing too much supply. "There is a large amount of speculative money in oil at the moment, so they will want to avoid any action that will see (those investors) running for the exit," the analysts said.

Oil slips more than 1% ahead of key meeting between OPEC and allies Oil prices slid on Tuesday before this week's OPEC+ meeting where producers are expected to ease supply curbs as economies start to slowly recover from the coronavirus crisis. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said the outlook for oil demand was looking more positive, particularly in Asia, and headwinds from last year continued to abate. Brent crude dipped 99 cents, or 1.55%, to $62.70 per barrel, after easing back from last week's more than one-year peak above $67. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 28 cents higher at $60.92 per barrel, also down from last week's high. Prices slipped after a recent rally on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, would add more oil to the market from April as they ease back on last year's deep supply cuts. "With the speculative market heavily long, the past three sessions' falls look corrective ahead of Thursday's meeting," said Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA. OPEC+, which meets on Thursday, could discuss allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back into the market. OPEC oil output fell in February as a voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia added to reductions agreed to in a previous OPEC+ pact, a Reuters survey found, ending a run of seven consecutive monthly increases. In Asia, China's factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, which could curtail Chinese crude demand. Oil buying by the world's top importer has recently eased. "There are signs that the physical market is not as tight as futures markets suggest," ING Economics said in a note.

U.S. oil futures settle below $60 for first time in more than a week -- Oil futures fell on Tuesday (link), with U.S. prices settling below the $60 mark for the first time since Feb. 19. Traders weighed prospects for crude production, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies expected to make a decision on output levels by Thursday. At an OPEC+ technical meeting held Tuesday, S&P Global Platts reported (link) that OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said producers must emphasize "cautious optimism." The pandemic still poses downside risks to the economy, but "encouraging global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are upside factors," Barkindo said. April West Texas Intermediate crude fell 89 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $59.75 a barrel. That was the lowest front-month contract finish since Feb. 19, FactSet data show.

WTI Extends Losses After Surprise Crude Build –m Oil prices tumbled today, leaving WTI back below $60 after OPEC+ headlines suggested "the market could handle more barrels" and a broad equity market sell-off didn't help."We have come a long way from a year ago," OPEC chief Mohammad Barkindo said."The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us." Sounds a little optimistic. This week's inventory data will likely be extremely noisy, dominated by the turmoil in Texas.API

• Crude +735k (-1.805mm exp)
• Cushing +732k
• Gasoline -9.993mm (-2.125mm exp) - biggest draw ever
• Distillates -9.053mm (-2.90mm exp) - biggest draw since Jan 2003

Huge product draws suggest demand but with refineries largely shut-in due to Texas, inventories were crushed to meet what demand there was elsewhere. Crude stocks surprisingly rose (again no demand from refiners) WTI extended its losses after the surprise crude build...

Oil slips on concerns that OPEC+ may be set to pump up supply - Oil prices were down in early trade on Wednesday, extending several days of losses, amid uncertainty over how much supply producing countries will push to restore to the market at a meeting this week while the coronavirus pandemic persists. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.57 a barrel by 0122 GMT, down 6% since Feb. 25, when they hit their highest close since May 2019. Brent crude futures dipped 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $62.63 a barrel, down 7% from a 13-month high hit last week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, are set to meet on Thursday, at a time when they are generally positive on the oil market outlook compared with a year ago when they slashed supply to boost prices. OPEC+ sources last week said an output increase of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) looked possible without building inventories. Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 million bpd is due to end in April, but it is unclear whether it will restore all of that supply right away. "The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us," OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday, speaking ahead of a meeting of OPEC+'s Joint Technical Committee (JTC). However, a JTC document seen by Reuters cited continued uncertainties in physical markets and risks of the coronavirus pandemic persisting with COVID-19 mutations. "The question the group must answer this week is whether the rebound in demand is strong enough to sustain an increase in output," ANZ analysts said in a note. Reinforcing concerns of potential oversupply, the American Petroleum Institute industry group reported U.S. crude stocks rose by 7.4 million barrels in the week to Feb. 26, in stark contrast to analysts' estimates for a draw of 928,000 barrels. "The unexpectedly large crude inventories build hit at a worrying time for oil bulls," said Stephen Innes, global market strategist at Axi.-

Oil Inventories Soar Most Ever; Gasoline Stocks Drained Most Since 1990 --  Oil prices surged back higher overnight after a brief dip on the API-reported surprise crude build (and massive product draws), as hopes that OPEC+ won't hike output too much prevail. The widespread view among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is that the oil market can absorb extra barrels, according to people familiar with the matter.“The question is not ‘if’ but rather ‘by how much’ the petro-nations will ease supply curbs,” said Norbert Ruecker, an analyst at Julius Baer Group Ltd.“The economic recovery and the likely leisure and travel activity bounce will fuel oil demand and extra supplies will be needed to avoid an over-tightening.”As we saw with API data, the Texas turmoil will make this inventory/production/demand data very noisy. DOE:

• Crude +21.563mm (-1.805mm exp) - biggest build ever
• Cushing +485k
• Gasoline -13.624mm (-2.125mm exp) - biggest draw ever
• Distillates -9.719mm (-2.90mm exp) - biggest draw since Jan 2003

After API's data (massive build in crude, massive draws in products), DOE's official data was stunning to behold with a record build in crude and record draw in gasoline stocks... Graphics Source: Bloomberg After tumbling in the prior week, Gasoline demand rebounded last week, but remains well below pre-COVID levels... After plunging the prior week due to the storm in Texas (tied with the record drop in August during the hurricane season), US crude production returned very modestly last week... At least 15 refineries, accounting for a combined 4.2 million barrels per day of capacity, were still experiencing ongoing outages last week. Front-month WTI futures were trading around $61 ahead of the official data and slipped lower on the crazy data... But the algos were quick to return and push it higher.

Oil Prices Get Boost from Fuel Inventory Data  -- Oil jumped the most in more than a week after a U.S. government report showed a record drop in domestic fuel inventories from the aftermath of a deep freeze that shuttered refineries in several states. Crude futures in New York climbed 2.6% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day streak of losses. U.S. gasoline inventories tumbled last week by the most since 1990 after a polar blast wiped out more than 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity in late February along the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to Energy Information Administration data. Crude stockpiles swelled with refineries still shut. “Absent the magnitude of the changes, things came in pretty much as expected with the enormous product draw more than offsetting the record crude build.” The U.S. data also showed gasoline supplied, a gauge for demand, surged the most since May, supporting those who say the oil market needs more barrels from producers as OPEC+ heads into a meeting on Thursday. The group is poised to agree on a coordinated production hike to cool the rapid surge in crude prices. Oil has rallied more than 25% so far this year, shepherded by the OPEC+ alliance’s continued production curbs and expectations for demand to meaningfully rebound as Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out worldwide. That strength though has paved the way for the alliance to unleash more barrels, with OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo saying Tuesday that both the wider economic outlook and oil-market fundamentals continue to improve. The group could return the bulk of the 1.5 million-barrel-a-day hike that’s up for debate. There are two parts to the potential production ramp-up that OPEC+ will discuss. The first is whether the cartel will proceed with a 500,000-barrel-a-day collective increase in April. The second is the question of how Saudi Arabia could phase out its extra reduction of 1 million barrels a day. “Elevated price levels will incentivize the cartel to taper their output cuts, but given the uncertainty, the market is likely to be on edge heading into tomorrow’s meeting,” TD Securities commodity strategists including Bart Melek said in a note. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery rose $1.53 to settle at $61.28 a barrel. Brent for May settlement climbed $1.37 to end the session at $64.07 a barrel. In the U.S., the decline in both gasoline and distillate inventories coincides with a spate of refinery outages left in the wake of the cold snap: Plants processed crude at the lowest level on record last week. While some refineries, like Motiva Enterprises LLC’s Texas site, have been able to restart key processing units, many that shut due to the freeze are still in the process of making repairs or restarting operations. Meanwhile, much of the crude production hit by the cold temperatures has been restored. Crude supplies grew by a record 21.56 million barrels, signaling weak demand from refiners at the time.

 Oil strengthens on prospect of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, drop in U.S. inventories -Oil prices rose more than $1 per barrel on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman urged caution and vigilance at the beginning of a meeting of OPEC ministers and their allies about the future of supply cuts. Brent crude futures were up $1.11, or 1.7%, at $65.18 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.07, or 1.8% to $62.35. Ministers from OPEC members and their allies started a meeting to discuss the future of an oil output cut at 1300 GMT. Analysts and traders say a four-month price rally from below $40 a barrel is now out of step with demand and that physical sales are not expected to match supply until later in 2021. But with prices above $60, some analysts have predicted OPEC+ producers will increase output by about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expect Saudi Arabia to at least partially end its voluntary reduction of 1 million bpd. Three OPEC+ sources on Wednesday said some members believe that output should remain unchanged and that it was not immediately clear whether Saudi Arabia would end its voluntary cuts or extend them. "The market ... can take back at least 500,000 bpd (excluding Saudi's extra cuts) from April and even more in following months, in line with the recovery we expect in oil demand," said Rystad's head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen. "Some mild negative price reaction will take place, though, if the decision is to increase output. Such a development would prevent some steep stock draws that had been priced in for a while for coming months." In the United States, despite a record surge of more than 21 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles last week, gasoline stocks fell by the most in 30 years as refining plunged to a record low because of the Texas freeze. Giving a floor to prices, Yemen's Houthi forces said on Thursday that they had fired a missile at a Saudi Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea city of Jeddah. There was no immediate confirmation from Saudi authorities.

OPEC+ extends most oil output cuts into April, Saudi keeps voluntary curb (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April, offering small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan, after deciding that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile despite a recent oil price rally. OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and would decide in coming months when to gradually phase it out. The news pushed oil prices back towards their highest levels in more than a year with Brent trading up 5% above $67 a barrel as the market had expected OPEC+ to release more barrels. [O/R] OPEC+ had cut output by a record 9.7 million bpd last year as demand collapsed due to the pandemic. As of March, it is still withholding about 7 million bpd, or 7% of world demand. The voluntary Saudi cut brings the total to about 8 million bpd. Under Thursday’s deal, Russia was allowed to raise output by 130,000 bpd in April and Kazakhstan by another 20,000 bpd to meet domestic needs. “Everybody (else) is going to maintain the freeze,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a news conference to outline the deal. He said Saudi Arabia would decide in the next few months when to gradually phase out its 1 million bpd voluntary cut “at our time, at our convenience”. “We are not in a hurry to bring it forward,” he said. The Saudi minister and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, lynchpins in the OPEC+ group, had earlier told OPEC+ ministers the recovery in demand was fragile. Novak said after the meeting that OPEC+ had to tread cautiously to avoid overheating the market.Russia has been insisting on raising output to avoid prices spiking any further and lending support to shale oil output from the United States, which is not part of OPEC+. But in February Moscow failed to raise output, despite being allowed to do so by OPEC+, because harsh winter weather hit its production at mature fields. Novak said Moscow needed extra barrels to meet recovering demand at home.

OPEC : 14th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting - opec.org - The 14th Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers took place via video conference on Thursday March 4, 2021, under the Chairmanship of HRH Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, and Co-Chair HE Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. The Meeting emphasized the ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market in line with the historic decisions taken at the 10th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 to adjust downwards overall crude oil production and subsequent decisions. The Ministers noted, with gratitude, the significant voluntary extra supply reduction made by Saudi Arabia, which took effect on 1 February for two months, which supported the stability of the market. The Ministers also commended Saudi Arabia for the extension of the additional voluntary adjustments of 1 mb/d for the month of April 2021, exemplifying its leadership, and demonstrating its flexible and pre-emptive approach. The Ministers approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively, due to continued seasonal consumption patterns. The Meeting reviewed the monthly report prepared by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), including the crude oil production data for the month of February. It welcomed the positive performance of participating countries. Overall conformity with the original decision was 103 per cent, reinforcing the trend of aggregate high conformity by participating countries. The Meeting noted that since the April 2020 meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC countries had withheld 2.3bn barrels of oil by end of January 2021, accelerating the oil market rebalancing. The Meeting extended special thanks to Nigeria for achieving full conformity in January 2021, and compensating its entire overproduced volumes. The ministers thanked HE Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, for his shuttle diplomacy as Special Envoy of the JMMC to Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and South Sudan to discuss matters pertaining to conformity levels with the voluntary production adjustments and compensation of over-produced volumes. In this regards the Ministers agreed to the request by several countries, which have not yet completed their compensation, for an extension of the compensation period until end of July 2021. It urged all participants to achieve full conformity and make up for previous compensation shortfalls, to reach the objective of market rebalancing and avoid undue delay in the process

Oil Surges As OPEC+ Agrees To Keep Output Unchanged In April - Crude gains accelerated two hours after the start of today's meeting following headlines that OPEC+ has agreed to keep output unchanged in April, with a delegate adding that OPEC+ decided not to hike output by 500kb/d in April.Energy Intel's Amena Bakr adds that Saudi Arabia may voluntarily extend its cut to April, however on condition that "compensation" volumes must be committed. Additionally, Bakr notes that the Saudis were the ones who proposed a rollover of existing production quotes for April and May.As B loomberg summarizes...  "there we have it. The group has agreed to roll over production for a month at current levels, including the voluntary Saudi cut. That’s a very bullish outcome. Prices up almost $3 a barrel."Of course, nothing is decided until the meeting concludes, but it appears that OPEC+ is willing to sacrifice production if it means much higher oil price for the next 1-2 months.The messages are mixed however:

• Saudi Arabia is mulling extending its 1 million b/d voluntary cut for a third month into April
• So far, most OPEC+ nations appear to back a roll-over of their production cuts into next month
• But Russia is resisting, insisting that Moscow should be allowed to increase its oil production.

Crude prices surge as OPEC+ extends most oil output cuts into April, Saudi keeps voluntary curb - Crude prices surged Thursday after OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April, offering small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan, after deciding that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile despite a recent oil price rally. OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and would decide in coming months when to gradually phase it out. The news pushed oil prices back toward their highest levels in more than a year with Brent, the global benchmark, trading up five per cent above $67 US a barrel as the market had expected OPEC+ to release more barrels. The price of West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, also rose, closing at $63.83 US a barrel on Thursday, up $2.55. The price of Western Canada Select climbed to $52.65 US a barrel, up $2.84. "For Canada, absolutely a net positive event," "All of this just trickles straight through to further cash flows for Canadian oil producers, most of whom are sitting near or at their highest production levels." Canadian oil producers got a lift with shares of MEG Energy Corp. surging nearly 10 per cent while Vermilion Energy Inc. rose 5.6 per cent and Cenovus Energy Inc. gained 4.9 per cent. OPEC+ had cut output by a record 9.7 million bpd last year as demand collapsed due to the pandemic. As of March, it is still withholding about 7 million bpd, or seven per cent of world demand. The voluntary Saudi cut brings the total to about 8 million bpd. Under Thursday's deal, Russia was allowed to raise output by 130,000 bpd in April and Kazakhstan by another 20,000 bpd to meet domestic needs.

Oil prices surge past recent highs on OPEC’s crude production decision -Oil surged to the highest in nearly two years after the OPEC+ alliance surprised traders with its decision to keep output unchanged, signaling a tighter crude market in the months ahead. Futures in New York climbed 4.2%, rising the most since Saudi Arabia last shocked markets with its January pledge to unilaterally cut output. Global benchmark Brent also jumped on Thursday. The OPEC+ producer alliance agreed during a virtual gathering to hold output steady in April. Saudi Arabia said it is in no hurry to bring back supply and will maintain its 1 million barrel-a-day voluntary production cut. “The decision to maintain the current OPEC+ supply cuts for the month of April has given the oil bulls exactly what they needed as far as the tight-supply narrative goes,” OPEC+ has helped drain a global glut that accumulated during the pandemic through its supply management, pushing crude futures up more than 30% so far this year. The strength is evident across many corners of the oil market, with key timespreads widening further in a bullish backwardation structure -- an indication of tightening supplies -- and data from brokers showing rallies in key swap markets in the North Sea. Meanwhile, Brent options volume rose to the highest since March 2020, according to preliminary trade data compiled by Bloomberg. The OPEC+ decision represents a victory for Saudi Arabia, which has advocated for production restraints to keep crude prices supported. However, higher prices could spur additional drilling activity by U.S. shale explorers, with domestic oil rigs already at the highest since May 2020. Saudi Arabia appeared unfazed by that risk: Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters after the meeting that the U.S. mantra of “drill, baby, drill is gone forever.” “The longer prices stay up, the greater the likelihood we will eventually see a supply response from the U.S. But, it’s not going to be as immediate as it would have been in the past.” OPEC+ had been debating whether to restore as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of output. As part of the agreement, Russia and Kazakhstan were granted exemptions. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for April 1 to discuss production levels for May. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery rose $2.55 to settle at $63.83 a barrel, the highest since April 2019. Brent for May settlement climbed $2.67 to end the session at $66.74 a barrel, the highest since late February. The ramifications of a swiftly tightening oil market may also impact prices at the pump, with U.S. retail gasoline prices approaching $3 per gallon for the first time in six years.

Oil surges after OPEC+ hold cuts, strong U.S. jobs growth - Oil prices jumped about 3% on Friday, hitting their highest levels in more than a year, following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and a decision by OPEC and its allies not to increase supply in April. Brent futures rose $2.62, or 3.9%, to settle at $69.36 a barrel. The session high for the global benchmark was its highest since January 2020. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.26, or 3.5% to settle at $66.09 a barrel. For the week, Brent was up 5.2%, rising for a seventh week in a row for the first time since December, while WTI was up about 7.4% after gaining almost 4% last week. Both contracts surged more than 4% on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, extended oil output curbs into April, granting small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan. "OPEC+ settled for a cautious approach ... opting to increase production by just 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April while market participants looked for an increase of 1.5 million bpd," said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Investors were surprised that Saudi Arabia had decided to maintain its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd through April even after the oil price rally of the past two months on the back of COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe. Some forecasters revised their price expectations upward following the OPEC+ decision. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast by $5 to $75 a barrel in the second quarter and $80 a barrel in the third quarter of this year. UBS raised its Brent forecast to $75 a barrel and WTI to $72 in the second half of 2021. In addition, the market got a boost after a report showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in February. The nonfarm payroll report "shows that Americans are closer to pre-pandemic behavior that will drive strong demand for crude," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Traders also noted the rising dollar, which hit its highest since November, was limiting the gain in crude prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, analysts and traders have said that slow physical crude sales and recovery for demand not predicted until around the third quarter suggest that the price rally is unwarranted.

Oil Soars Above $66 With Saudi Supply Gamble Buoying Crude Bulls -  Oil rallied to the highest in nearly two years in New York after OPEC+ shocked markets with a decision to keep supply limited as the global economy starts to recover from a pandemic-driven slump. U.S. benchmark crude futures topped $66 a barrel on Friday, while its global counterpart Brent neared the key $70 level. The producer alliance’s supply curbs and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines have aided a stellar rebound for crude from the depths of the coronavirus-related fallout. OPEC+’s surprise decision on Thursday to keep output steady in April boosted prices further and led to strength in the market’s structure. Major banks upgraded price forecasts, with some calls for oil reaching north of $100 next year. “In some ways, even more important than the lack of oil was the message that came with it: They’re not really worried about price, not worried about tightening,” Crude has soared more than 30% so far this year with OPEC+’s output restraint holding the market over until a full-fledged comeback in consumption. The group’s latest decision represents a victory for Riyadh, which has advocated for tight curbs to keep prices supported. “Overall, this was the most bullish outcome we could have expected,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts wrote in a note to clients. Saudi Arabia’s bold and unexpected gamble to restrain production is founded upon its view that this time around higher prices will not lead to a big increase in output by American shale drillers. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in an interview after the meeting that shale companies were now more focused on dividends. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery advanced $2.26 to settle at $66.09 a barrel, the highest level since April 2019. Futures surged 7.5% this week, the largest weekly gain in a month. Brent for May settlement climbed $2.62 to end the session at $69.36 a barrel. Oil’s rebound this year stands to intensify the debate about a potential resurgence in inflation, and complicate the task facing the Federal Reserve as it supports the U.S. recovery. The Treasury market is already looking for signs of faster price gains, with yields rising rapidly. Meanwhile, U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast in February. 

Saudis Bet Against Return of USA Shale Glory Days  - -- Saudi Arabia just made a high-stakes wager that the glory days of U.S. shale, which transformed the global energy map in the last decade, are never coming back. By keeping a tight grip on supply at Thursday’s meeting of the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman showed he’s focused on boosting prices -- and confident that this time around it won’t encourage American producers to surge back and steal market share. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is gone for ever,” said Prince Abdulaziz, who’s orchestrated the revival of the oil market after last year’s catastrophic collapse. His swagger comes mixed with a good dose of diplomatic tension: Russia, Saudi Arabia’s most important OPEC+ partner, has tried to convince Riyadh for several months to increase output, fearing that rising oil prices would ultimately awaken rival shale producers. The Saudis are certain the American industry has reformed itself. If the prince is right, OPEC+ will be able to both push prices higher now and recover market share later without worrying that rivals in Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota will flood the market. But if Riyadh has miscalculated -- and it’s got shale wrong before -- the danger will be lower prices and production down the line. The Saudis have so far convinced their allies the strategy will work. After a quick virtual meeting on Thursday, OPEC+ agreed to prolong its production cuts, defying expectations of an output hike. Russia, however, secured an exemption for itself and Kazakhstan, and will increase output marginally in April. Brent crude jumped 5% to a one-year high of almost $68 a barrel after the decision. Front-month futures extended gains on Friday and a raft of banks updated their price forecasts, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which increased its estimates by $5 -- to $75 next quarter and $80 in the following three months. “This is an incredibly bold move on the part of OPEC+ to extend the oil price rally,” said KPMG Global Energy Sector Leader Regina Mayor. If history is a guide, however, trouble may be brewing. The OPEC+ coalition, which groups Saudi Arabia, Russia and almost two dozen other oil producers, has in the past underestimated its American rivals, who year after year produced more than most expected. From a low point of less than 7 million barrels a day in 2007, the U.S.’s total petroleum output more than doubled to hit an all-time high of almost 18 million barrels a day by early 2020, forcing the cartel to cede market share. “This is a risky take,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said Friday in a Bloomberg Television interview. While U.S. oil companies probably won’t raise output this year, in 2022 “there’s nothing really stopping them, especially the small and mid-cap producers.” Sen sees prices hitting $70 a barrel as soon as next week, $80 by the end of the year and a possible climb to $100 in 2022. For now, U.S. total oil output remains constrained, hovering at 16 million barrels due to the impact of last year’s slump, which briefly saw benchmark prices trade below zero. Under pressure from shareholders, shale producers have promised restraint, putting profits before the growth they relentlessly pursued during the boom years. Although drilling has risen from the lows of 2020, it’s well below previous levels. In addition, President Joe Biden is trying to temper the worst excesses of the industry, including the indiscriminate natural gas flaring that’s a byproduct of shale’s success. Under a different oil minister, Saudi Arabia attacked shale producers in 2014 and 2015, flooding the market and forcing prices lower -- a strategy that ultimately failed. Prince Abdulaziz is doing the opposite, because oil higher prices will eventually benefit shale producers. Yet, he’s convinced the industry won’t repeat its past excesses.

Goldman hikes Brent forecast, says 'shale discipline' behind OPEC strategy (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Commodities Research raised its Brent forecast for second and third quarter by $5 a barrel after OPEC and its allies kept the deal unchanged, and said ‘discipline of shale producers’ is likely behind the group’s slower output increase. The Wall Street bank now sees Brent prices at $75 a barrel in second quarter and at $80 a barrel in third quarter of 2021, it said in a note dated Thursday. U.S. shale producers have quickly responded to oil price gains in recent years, winning market share as Saudi Arabia and other major producers have cut output, although they held back on boosting production since pandemic-led demand destruction last year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Thursday agreed to extend most oil production cuts until April, after deciding that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile. “OPEC’s supply strategy is working because of its unexpectedness and suddenness,” Goldman said. “We believe it is now clear that OPEC+ is in fact pursuing a tight oil market strategy, with our updated supply-demand balance pointing to OECD (inventories) falling to their lowest level since 2014 by the end of this year.” The bank lowered its OPEC+ production forecast by 0.9 million (bpd) over the next six months, and said shale, Iran and non-OPEC supplies are likely to remain highly inelastic to prices until the second half of 2021, allowing OPEC+ to quickly rebalance the oil market. “Key will be the potential shale supply response, although the latest earnings season suggests investors are still a long way away from rewarding growth,” the bank said, and raised its 2022 U.S. shale production forecast by 0.3 million bpd. Brent crude futures rose 1.2% to $67.57 a barrel by 0609 GMT on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced 1.2% to $64.60 per barrel.

Column: OPEC+ keeping output cuts won't surprise the physical crude market (Reuters) - The decision by OPEC and its allies to extend crude oil output cuts into April came as something of a surprise to a market expecting some level of increase, but it shouldn’t have. The problem for the prevailing narrative is that it’s focused on what is happening in the paper crude market, the widely followed and traded Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures. They have been signalling increasing tightness in the global oil market as the world starts to recover from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the ongoing supply restrictions imposed by the producer group, referred to as OPEC+. The paper market has a point: oil demand does look like it will be heading higher, but the problem is a matter of timing. The market is priced for a sharp increase in demand right now, and in the next few months. But the physical crude market is telling another story, with traders there saying there are plenty of cargoes available, especially for delivery to the top-importing region of Asia. The physical market has largely already sorted out what they are buying for April, and they are now looking more at loading programmes for May and June. It’s quite likely that the OPEC+ group looked at what refiners were wanting in April and concluded that there was not yet enough demand to warrant pumping more crude in that month. If the paper market then takes OPEC+’s decision to keep its output down by about 7 million barrels per day (bpd) and bid up prices, then that’s just a serendipitous bonus for the producers. The Brent market duly did what was expected, with the front-month contract rising as much as 5.7% to a one-year high of $67.75 a barrel, before retreating slightly to end Thursday’s trade at $67.17. But the front-month contract expires on March 31, making it largely irrelevant to the physical market. The bullishness seen in paper crude contrasts with reports from physical traders, where in recent days there have been reports of several West African cargoes being offered for re-sale, and refiners in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, cutting back on purchases. There were some interesting comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister of top exporter Saudi Arabia, after Thursday’s meeting of OPEC+. He says the kingdom is not in any hurry to end its voluntary, additional 1 million bpd of output cuts.If the Saudis genuinely believed the market was tight, adding those barrels back would be the first step and would reduce the risk of prices rising too rapidly, choking demand and the nascent global recovery. Another point the Saudi minister made was that countries complaining of high prices should use up inventories of cheap crude bought during the price collapse last year, a sign that OPEC+ doesn’t yet believe inventory levels have dropped to what could be considered more normal levels. But perhaps Salman’s bravest comment was an apparent suggestion that U.S. shale oil isn’t the force in the market it used to be. “Drill, baby, drill is gone forever,” he said, referencing the U.S. Republican Party’s political slogan to promote the expansion of onshore production.

Biden Bombs Syria and Claims Self Defense - by Caitlin Johnstone — On orders of President Biden, the United States has launched an airstrike on a facility in Syria. As of this writing the exact number of killed and injured is unknown, with early reports claiming “a handful” of people were killed. Rather than doing anything remotely resembling journalism, the western mass media have opted instead to uncritically repeat what they’ve been told about the airstrike by US officials, which is the same as just publishing Pentagon press releases. Here’s this from The Washington Post:The Biden administration conducted an airstrike against alleged Iranian-linked fighters in Syria on Thursday, signaling its intent to push back against violence believed to be sponsored by Tehran.Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the attack, the first action ordered by the Biden administration to push back against alleged Iranian-linked violence in Iraq and Syria, on a border control point in eastern Syria was “authorized in response to recent attacks against American and coalition personnel in Iraq, and to ongoing threats.”He said the facilities were used by Iranian-linked militias including Kaitib Hezbollah and Kaitib Sayyid al-Shuhada.The operation follows the latest serious attack on U.S. locations in Iraq that American officials have attributed to Iranian-linked groups operating in Iraq and Syria. Earlier this month, a rocket attack in northern Iraq killed a contractor working with the U.S. military and injured a U.S. service member there. So we are being told that the United States launched an airstrike on Syria, a nation it invaded and is illegally occupying, because of attacks on “US locations” in Iraq, another nation the US invaded and is illegally occupying. This attack is justified on the basis that the Iraqi fighters were “Iranian-linked”, a claim that is both entirely without evidence and irrelevant to the justification of deadly military force. And this is somehow being framed in mainstream news publications as a defensive operation.This is Defense Department stenography. The US military is an invading force in both Syria and Iraq; it is impossible for its actions in either of those countries to be defensive. It is always necessarily the aggressor. It’s the people trying to eject them who are acting defensively. The deaths of US troops and contractors in those countries can only be blamed on the powerful people who sent them there.The US is just taking it as a given that it has de facto jurisdiction over the nations of Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and that any attempt to interfere in its authority in the region is an unprovoked attack which must be defended against. This is completely backwards and illegitimate. Only through the most perversely warped American supremacist reality tunnels can it look valid to dictate the affairs of sovereign nations on the other side of the planet and respond with violence if anyone in those nations tries to eject them.

“Biden is Not Obama”: Israel Very Pleased With Biden’s Decision to Bomb Syria — Israeli officials told Walla News on Friday that Israel is highly pleased with President Biden’s decision to bomb Shia militia targets in eastern Syria.  Although the airstrikes hit an Iraqi militia, the attack is being framed as a move against Iran, and the officials compared Biden to President Obama, who they view as soft on Iran due to the 2015 nuclear deal.  “The Iranians didn’t realize that Biden is not Obama, and that if they will continue down this road of miscalculation they will eventually get hit,” one Israeli official told Walla.  According to a report from Axios, Israel was given advanced notice of the Syria airstrikes on Thursday morning. The notification took place during talks of the so-call “working group,” a forum the US and Israel are using to discuss Iran issues that is headed by each countries’ national security advisors.  Israel has been bombing Syria for years and frequently targets Shia militias that they always claim are linked to Iran. Last week, Israel bombed Damascus, Syria, killing nine people who were described as pro-government militia fighters.

Rockets fired at Iraqi airbase hosting U.S.-led coalition troops - Ten rockets were fired at an Iraqi military base hosting U.S.-led coalition troops Wednesday, the latest in a series of rocket attacks in Iraq, with this one just days before the pope is due to visit the country.The rockets targeted the Ain al-Asad air base, northwest of Baghdad, at 7:20 a.m. local time Wednesday (11:20 p.m. ET Tuesday). The attack was confirmed in a tweet from Col. Wayne Marotto, the military spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, the 83-member coalition to defeat the Islamic State militant group. There are approximately 1,400 coalition troops at the sprawling base.Iraqi security forces are leading the response and investigation, he added."A U.S. civilian contractor suffered a cardiac episode while sheltering and sadly passed away shortly after," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a statement. He later said it remained unclear if the rocket attack had caused the cardiac arrest. Major Gen. Tahseen al-Khafaji of the Iraqi security forces told NBC News that there was no damage reported at the base. Security forces were investigating who was behind the attack, he added.

Rocket attack on base in Iraq raises threat of US escalation - A rocket attack on the sprawling Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq’s western province of Anbar early Wednesday has heightened the threat of a further escalation of US military aggression in the country and the wider region. The 10 rockets that fell on the base, which houses US and other NATO troops, claimed no casualties, but one US civilian contractor died of a heart attack while sheltering during the assault. Iraqi security officials said little damage was inflicted on the base, while witnesses told local media they had seen flames and a long plume of black smoke. Raising the prospect of another round of US military action, President Joe Biden told reporters, “We are following that through right now... we’re identifying who’s responsible and we’ll make judgments.” The rocket attack follows last week’s US air strikes against facilities near the Iraqi border used by Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militias in Syria. Those strikes, the first military action ordered by the new Democratic president, were initially reported to have killed 17 people, while later reports said that just one person died. While there was widespread speculation that the rockets fired on Ain al-Asad were in retaliation for the US strike in Syria, as of Wednesday evening no group had claimed responsibility. The area surrounding the base is overwhelmingly Sunni and not under the control of the predominantly Shia Hashed al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an official arm of Iraq’s military, which the US military attacked last week in Syria.

Houthi Rebels Claim Missile Attack On Saudi Aramco Facility - The Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed they have struck an Aramco facility in Jeddah in a missile attack, Russia’s Sputnik reports, citing a statement by the rebel group. The Associated Press later also reported the attack.“The missile forces managed today to strike [a facility] of the Saudi Aramco company in Jeddah with a Quds 2 cruise missile. The strike was precise,” a spokesman said.The news comes just days after Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile over the capital, Riyadh. The Saudi side has yet to confirm or deny the attack.The Houthis last targeted Saudi oil facilities last November. The group—which the outgoing U.S. administration in January designated as a terrorist group—said they had hit a distribution center property of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company. The group also warned that “operations will continue,” advising foreign companies and residents of Saudi Arabia to be cautious.The report came in late November, a week after Saudi Arabia said it had thwarted a Houthi attack on an oil products terminal near the border between the Kingdom and Yemen. The Saudi side confirmed the hit.Since 2015, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been essentially fighting a proxy war in Yemen, where the Saudis lead a military Arab coalition to “restore legitimacy” in the country, while the Houthi movement, which holds the capital Sanaa, is backed by Iran.The Houthi rebels have often claimed they have hit oil infrastructure assets in Saudi Arabia and have taken responsibility for several high-profile attacks in the region.The most notable attack that the Yemeni rebel group claimed responsibility for was the September 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities that cut off 5 percent of daily global supply for weeks, sending oil prices soaring. But Saudi Arabia and the United States have said that it was Iran—and not the Houthis—who was responsible for the attack.

At least 20 killed by suicide car bomb near restaurant in Somalia capital (Reuters) - At least 20 people were killed and 30 wounded by a suicide car bomb just outside a restaurant near the port in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu late on Friday, an emergency services official said. The blast sent plumes of smoke into the sky and triggered gunfire, witnesses and state-owned media reported. “So far we have carried 20 dead people and 30 injured from the blast scene,” Dr. Abdulkadir Aden, founder of AAMIN Ambulance services told Reuters. The blast occurred at the Luul Yemeni restaurant near the port, witnesses said. “A speeding car exploded at Luul Yemeni restaurant. I was going to the restaurant but ran back when the blast shook and covered the area with smoke,” resident Ahmed Abdullahi, who lives near the site, told Reuters. Somalia’s state-controlled Radio Mogadishu reported there was also destruction of property and that police had cordoned off the area.

Pandemic May Have Left Over 250 Million People With Acute Food Shortages in 2020 -- According to a United Nations World Food Program (WFP) report, COVID-19 might have left up to 265 million people with acute food shortages in 2020. The combined effect of the pandemic as well as the emerging global recession "could, without large-scale coordinated action, disrupt the functioning of food systems," which would "result in consequences for health and nutrition of a severity and scale unseen for more than half a century," states another UN report.  In the United States, "food insecurity has doubled overall, and tripled among households with children" due to the pandemic, states a June 2020 report by the Institute for Policy Research (IPR) at Northwestern University, which relied on data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. In a recent interviewwith CBS News, IPR Director Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach warned that these statistics would likely "continue to hold," with the numbers indicating particularly dramatic rises in food insecurity among Black and Latinx families. Indeed, families of color are being disproportionately impacted. According to an analysis of new Census data by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), 22 percent of Black and 21 percent of Latinx respondents reported not having enough to eat, compared to just 9 percent of white people. Globally, the effects of COVID-19 on food security are equally, if not more, severe. According to a CBS Newsreport, WFP Director David Beasley told the UN Security Council in April 2020 that the world is on "the brink of a hunger pandemic." He added, "In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in 10 of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation." "The number of chronically hungry people increased by an estimated 130 million last year, to more than 800 million — about eight times the total number of COVID-19 cases to date," wrote Mark Lowcock, the under-secretary-general and emergency relief coordinator at the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and Axel van Trotsenburg, managing director of operations at the World Bank. "Countries affected by conflict and climate change are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Empty stomachs can stunt whole generations."

Neoliberal Finance Undermines Poor Countries’ Recovery After being undermined by decades of financial liberalisation, developing countries now are not only victims of vaccine imperialism, but also cannot count on much financial support as their COVID-19 recessions drag on due to global vaccine apartheid.  Developing countries have long been pressured to liberalise finance by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The international financial institutions claimed this would bring net capital inflows. This was supposed to reduce foreign exchange constraints to accelerating growth, creating “a rosy scenario, indeed”.Globalisation’s claim naively expects “more birds to fly into, rather than out of an open birdcage”. Instead, financial globalisation meant net capital flows from capital-poor developing countries to capital-rich developed countries, i.e., dubbed the “Lucas paradox”. A decade later, flows “uphill” had “intensified over time”.The past decade saw the largest, fastest and most broad-based foreign debt increase in these economies in half a century. Total foreign debt of emerging market economies rose from around 110% of GDP in 2010 to more than 170% in 2019, while that of low-income countries (LICs) increased from 48% to 67%. Developing countries saw private finance drop by US$700 billion in 2020, while foreign direct investment flows to developing countries declined by 30-45% in 2020. Remittances fell by 7% in 2020, and are expected to fall by another 7.5% in 2021.Meanwhile, developing countries’ indebtedness increased as total aid flows had long fallen short of even half the long promised 0.7% of donor countries’ incomes. In 2020, when developing countries needed it most, donor governments cut bilateral aid commitments by almost 30%.With limited access to other finance, developing countries, especially LICs, face much higher borrowing costs, even in normal times. With the pandemic, developing countries have beendowngraded by rating agencies, further raising borrowing costs.Facing falling foreign exchange earnings needed to import essential drugs, vaccines and other vital supplies, including food, most countries have to borrow. In 2020, official foreign debt probably rose by 12% of GDP in emerging market economies, and by 8% in LICs. The pandemic thus greatly worsened developing countries’ debt distress.Before the pandemic, more than a quarter of official revenue went to servicing debt. With the worst recession since the Great Depression in 2020, as well as declining revenue and foreign exchange inflows, debt is now blocking finance for more adequate relief and recovery in many countries.

China Appears to Warn India: Push Too Hard and the Lights Could Go Out— Early last summer, Chinese and Indian troops clashed in a surprise border battle in the remote Galwan Valley, bashing each other to death with rocks and clubs. Four months later and more than 1,500 miles away in Mumbai, India, trains shut down and the stock market closed as the power went out in a city of 20 million people. Hospitals had to switch to emergency generators to keep ventilators running amid a coronavirus outbreak that was among India’s worst. Now, a new study lends weight to the idea that those two events may well have been connected — as part of a broad Chinese cybercampaign against India’s power grid, timed to send a message that if India pressed its claims too hard, the lights could go out across the country. The study shows that as the standoff continued in the Himalayas, taking at least two dozen lives, Chinese malware was flowing into the control systems that manage electric supply across India, along with a high-voltage transmission substation and a coal-fired power plant. The flow of malware was pieced together by Recorded Future, a Somerville, Mass., company that studies the use of the internet by state actors. It found that most of the malware was never activated. And because Recorded Future could not get inside India’s power systems, it could not examine the details of the code itself, which was placed in strategic power-distribution systems across the country. While it has notified Indian authorities, so far they are not reporting what they have found. Stuart Solomon, Recorded Future’s chief operating officer, said that the Chinese state-sponsored group, which the firm named Red Echo, “has been seen to systematically utilize advanced cyberintrusion techniques to quietly gain a foothold in nearly a dozen critical nodes across the Indian power generation and transmission infrastructure.” The discovery raises the question about whether an outage that struck on Oct. 13 in Mumbai, one of the country’s busiest business hubs, was meant as a message from Beijing about what might happen if India pushed its border claims too vigorously. News reports at the time quoted Indian officials as saying that the cause was a Chinese-origin cyberattack on a nearby electricity load-management center. Authorities began a formal investigation, which is due to report in the coming weeks. Since then, Indian officials have gone silent about the Chinese code, whether it set off the Mumbai blackout and the evidence provided to them by Recorded Future that many elements of the nation’s electric grid were the target of a sophisticated Chinese hacking effort.

 Tokyo Olympics Poised To Ban Foreign Spectators On Fears Of 'Superspreader' Event Now it appears that even the Olympics is the next to become a 'spectator-less' sporting event due to the global pandemic, following over nine months of games played in empty arenas and stadiums when it comes to professional sports from America to Europe. While it's clear there will be significant 'social distancing' restrictions placed on any spectators admitted to summer Olympic venues, Japan and the International Olympic Committee are now reportedly strongly considering having no foreign fans attend at all. An anonymous government official notified a prominent Japanese newspaper of the "debate" ongoing inside the committee, saying, "In the current situation it is impossible to bring in foreign spectators," a government official told the Japanese newspaper Mainichi.The Associated Press on Wednesday details in its latest reporting: The Japanese newspaper Mainichi reported Wednesday that the decision had already been made to exclude foreign fans. It cited only unnamed sources "involved in the discussions." "If the situation is tough and it would make the (Japanese) consumers concerned, that is a situation we need to avoid from happening," organizing committee president Seiko Hashimoto said. But speaking of "consumers" this is certain to result in a blow of at least hundreds of millions of dollars lost in the absence of foreign fans. AP underscores further that, "The absence of fans could cost the games as much as $800 million more than the already billions of dollars of revenue lost."

Japan lifts state of emergency except for the Greater Tokyo Area - Japan's government says it is lifting the coronavirus-related state of emergency imposed on six prefectures that include Osaka, Aichi and Fukuoka at the end of February. But the measure will remain in place for Tokyo and its neighboring prefectures. The Japanese government declared the emergency last month. Officials asked people to refrain from non-essential outings, and asked restaurants and bars to shorten their hours. The governors of Osaka, Hyogo, Kyoto, Aichi and Fukuoka have asked the central government to end the declaration earlier than planned. They say the number of coronavirus cases and the occupancy rate of hospital beds for seriously ill patients are generally declining. On Friday, the minister in charge of the coronavirus response, Nishimura Yasutoshi, said, "It's very important to strike a balance between supporting economic activities and suppressing the virus. We'll relax the restrictions in phases in order to avoid a new wave of infections." Nishimura added that even after the declaration is lifted, measures to prevent the spread of infections should remain. "In areas where the emergency is lifted, we want to monitor entertainment districts and other places for any signs of a resurgence," he said. Members of the government's advisory panel addressed concerns that relaxing the restrictions could trigger a rebound in the numbers. On Thursday, they published a list of recommendations, including keeping the number of people who dine together under four, and refraining from eating and drinking when viewing cherry blossoms. They also want restaurants and bars to take extra precautions regarding ventilation, and to keep the volume of music low so that people don't have to raise their voices.

Myanmar Security Forces Filmed Shooting Into Anti-Coup Crowds, 33 Protesters Dead -Eyewitnesses and international observers say Myanmar security forces opened fire with live ammo on anti-coup protesters in multiple locations Wednesday, killing over 30 people and wounding dozens more.By day's end, the Associated Press tallied at least 33 people killed, also amid a near total internet blockage to the country imposed by the military government. This makes Wednesday the highest daily death toll since the coup began at the start of February, bringing the total killed to 60."Myanmar security forces dramatically escalated their crackdown on protests against last month’s coup, killing at least 33 protesters Wednesday in several cities, according to accounts on social media and local news reports compiled by a data analyst," the AP recorded.Opposition activists who are in the streets defying a junta-imposed 'state of emergency' and curfew, which includes a ban on crowds, are describing it as an "massacre" even at a moment neighboring countries are urging "restraint" by military authorities. "The security forces resorted to live fire with little warning in several towns and cities, witnesses said, as the junta appeared more determined than ever to stamp out protests against the Feb. 1 coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi," Reuters reports.

Nigeria kidnappings: Gunmen abduct schoolgirls in Zamfara State, government official says – CNN - Hundreds of schoolgirls were abducted in the early hours of Friday when armed men raided a state-run school in Zamfara State, northwest Nigeria, a government official told CNN.The schoolgirls were taken from their hostels by gunmen who raided the Government Girls Secondary School in the town of Jangebe, a high-ranking government official with knowledge of the incident told CNN.A police officer was killed in the attack, according to the source, who did not want to be named as he did not have permission to speak on record."They came on about 20 motorcycles and they marched the abducted girls into the forest," the source said. "The bandits arrived around 1:45 a.m. and they operated 'til about 3 a.m.This language learning service is designed to get you conversational in a new language in just 3 weeks, no matter your skill level or prior experience."The sad part is that there's a military checkpoint that is about four minutes away from the school," he added. About 500 students are normally at the boarding school, of whom around 315 were taken by the gunmen. Others managed to flee and return to their hostels, the source said.

The IMF’s surcharges are unfit for purpose - The IMF’s most important function is to provide emergency financing to countries in dire economic straits that are unable to pay their creditors. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the IMF has already approved 119 programs to 85 countries at a cost of over $100bn.  But, as it turns out, the countries that need the most from the IMF will have to pay over $4bn in extra surcharges on top of interest payments and fees from the beginning of the crisis through the end of 2022. What’s more, the IMF estimates the surcharges have become the Fund’s largest source of revenue, accounting for almost half of revenues during this period. At exactly the same time, developing countries need every penny they can muster to fight the virus, protect the vulnerable, and mount an inclusive and green recovery. Something has gone horribly wrong with the policy. The Covid pandemic triggered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The World Bank estimates that upwards of 124m people were pushed into extreme poverty in 2020, with 8 out of 10 of those newly poor living in middle-income countries. Federal debt is a particularly acute problem here. For instance in Nigeria, more than 50 per cent of government revenue is being used to service international debts rather than combat the virus. The region of Latin America and the Caribbean has been one of the hardest hit, with more than 500,000 deaths and an economic downturn of 7.7 per cent in 2020. In per capita terms, the region has been pushed back to 2010 levels, effectively causing yet another lost decade. The United Nations estimates that many countries in the region are deploying 30 to 70 per cent of shrunken government revenue to pay creditors. Even though middle-income countries are among the hardest hit, the G20’s new architecture to help countries alleviate debt distress — the Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the Common Framework — only provide debt suspension and relief to the low-income countries. In addition, the G20 schemes only apply to bilateral official creditors such as members of the Paris Club and China, even though two-thirds of middle-income-country debt is held in international financial institutions such as the IMF. Currently, 30 per cent of the countries with IMF funding face surcharges in the midst of the crisis, including Angola, Argentina and Georgia. And more are due to begin paying. This is just when many middle-income countries still don’t have access to vaccines and will continue to suffer the health, economic, and financial pain of the crisis. The unintended consequences are two-fold. First, the surcharges disproportionately affect middle income countries with lower quotas that, by definition, need both extensive IMF financing to repay and longer repayment periods to recover from crises. Second, they require borrowing members to pay more at exactly the moment when they are most squeezed from market access in any other form.

How the NATO Alliance Is Fighting Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine With Subsidies From State Budgets and the Gates Foundation, Hidden by the Financial Times - When the organ claiming to be the world’s leading financial newspaper conceals the large price subsidy for the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines manufactured by the NATO allies, in order to accuse Russia of price gouging the poor, you can be sure you are watching an information warfare attack.  And when the concealment of the vaccine subsidy operation run by GAVI and COVAX hides the fact that the UK, US, and the Bill Gates (lead image, right) and Melinda Gates Foundation are paying 92% of the $10 billion scheme, then you realise that Covid-19 vaccines are a weapon of war. A war, not only against Russia, but also against China. GAVI stands for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation. Originally established with $750 million from the Gates Foundation in 1999, it is based in Geneva and Washington, DC, and  directed by an epidemiologist,  Seth Berkley.  He’s an American doctor  whose previous jobs were also funded by Gates and several NATO governments,  and before that by the Rockefeller Foundation.  COVAX is an acronym, created by GAVI, to stand for a multinational scheme of financing Covid-19 vaccine development in Europe and the US; then funding sale and distribution of these vaccines to low-income countries around the world. GAVI claims the scheme “is the only global initiative that is working with governments and manufacturers to ensure COVID-19 vaccines are available worldwide to both higher-income and lower-income countries.” Read more of GAVI’s versionhere. Think of COVAX as a bank created by GAVI from money deposited by the NATO governments and either granted or loaned to client government which meet the bank’s eligibility criteria.  GAVI’s website publishes a weekly update on what it calls the “Covid-19 vaccine race”.  The American and British vaccines are being promoted and funded by the GAVI-COVAX scheme; the Chinese and Russian vaccines are not.  Last Thursday, on February 25,   the Financial Times, a Japanese-owned, London-based, and Lebanese-edited publication, claimed the cost price of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine to the poorest of African Union (AU) country members was “three times more than the price of the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines, according to people familiar with the procurement process.”  The anonymous familiarity formula is a standard practice for anti-Russian fabrications by FTreporters; Bloomberg and Reuters too.

Canadian authorities risk lives of staff and students by reopening Newfoundland schools despite spread of UK variant  ---With the blessing of the Liberal provincial government of Newfoundland and Labrador, local authorities have recklessly started reopening schools amid a major outbreak of the highly-contagious B117 variant of the coronavirus. Like governments across Canada, their priority is safeguarding the profits of big business, not the health and lives of students and teachers.All schools in Newfoundland and Labrador were closed on Feb. 12 due to the rapid spread of the B117 variant, first identified in the UK, in metro St. John’s, the province’s capital and largest city. The rapid spread of the variant was made possible by large outbreaks in schools and workplaces, and exacerbated by widespread poverty and cramped living conditions.In the past week, the province has recorded 40 new cases. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 989 COVID-19 infections have been recorded in a population of 520,000. Of those cases, 565 are associated with the current St. John’s area outbreak. Dr. Janice Fitzgerald, chief medical officer of health, said 88 of the samples tested have been identified as the B117 strain. “Everything we’ve sent up related to this recent cluster … has come back positive for B117,” she said. “Our assumption now is that anything that is coming from a community-related case is due to this variant.”Eastern Health confirmed that 145 students and/or staff at Mount Pearl Senior High had been infected with COVID-19. That accounts for the largest portion of the approximately 185 students and/or staff infected at 22 schools around the Eastern Health region. Overall, there have been cases at five high schools, four junior high schools, and 13 elementary schools in St. John’s and its environsThe recent resurgence of the pandemic in Newfoundland has once again demonstrated the central role that schools and young people, including children, can and are playing in the spread of COVID-19. Yet governments across Canada and internationally have time and again sought to downplay, if not outright dismiss, the dangers associated with school reopenings so as not to undercut their drive to “reopen” the economy.Authorities in Newfoundland know full well that schools are a major vector of COVID-19 transmission, yet they are doubling down on the lie that schools are safe.

As Predicted: Immunity Passports Are No Longer A Fantasy  — On Thursday, the European Union’s 27 political leaders held a 5-hour virtual call to discuss the future of reopening travel across the continent. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters the leaders have “agreed that we need vaccine certificates.” Merkel also sought to quell fears about the use of such certificates, stating, “it will certainly be good to have such a certificate but that will not mean that only those who have such a passport will be able to travel; about that, no political decisions have been made yet.” The discussion around immunity passports has grown in recent months, with the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, and Spain all considering some method of verifying whether an individual has been vaccinated or achieved immunity from COVID-19. UK officials have also discussed the potential for the use of a digital verification tool for domestic travel. In the United States, plans for immunity passports are also being developed. On January 21, Joe Biden outlined a 200-page national coronavirus pandemic strategy which included a call for the U.S. government to “assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination.” The statements by world leaders comes on the heels of a press conference held by the International Air Travel Association, which represents 299 airlines. On Wednesday, Alexandre de Juniac, the IATA’s Director General and CEO, detailed the upcoming release of the organization’s own immunity passport, the IATA Travel Pass. A slideshow presentation discussing the IATA Travel Pass indicates that the organization plans to have their app fully functional by the early summer. “With respect to health credentials these past weeks have seen more airlines sign-up to trial the IATA Travel Pass. That will help us be ready for the restart.,” De Juniac stated. He went on to say that the IATA Travel pass must be secure, work with existing systems of travel, and respect data privacy. He did not provide specific details of how privacy would be respected. De Juniac also noted that proof of vaccination and COVID-19 test results must be digital because “fraudulent COVID-19 test results are already proving to be an issue.” Despite the quick pace of the roll out of these immunity passports, they are not without controversy. According to a poll in June 2020, and a more recent study by the Brookings Institution, the public is evenly divided among support and opposition for immunity passports. “Almost half favor conferring some form of immunity privileges and a small majority are opposed,” the Brookings Institution writes. The “small majority” opposed to the passports are pushing back out of fears that the passports will create a two-tiered class system where the vaccinated are allowed to travel freely, and the unvaccinated are denied the right to travel, attend concerts, visit museums, drink at the bar, and potentially even shop at the local market. Nicole Hassoun, professor at Binghamton University, recently wrote an opinion piece for Scientific American stating that, “Immunity passports may be inevitable, given current developments in the private sector and historic precedent, but in order for them to be ethical, they must at least include some exceptions. People who cannot access vaccines for health reasons but need to work, attend school, travel and so forth should be able to do so when the benefits exceed the risks.”

Reuters, BBC, and Bellingcat participated in covert UK Foreign Office-funded programs to "weaken Russia," leaked docs reveal - The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) have sponsored Reuters and the BBC to conduct a series of covert programs aimed at promoting regime change inside Russia and undermining its government across Eastern Europe and Central Asia, according to a series of leaked documents.The leaked materials show the Thomson Reuters Foundation and BBC Media Action participating in a covert information warfare campaign aimed at countering Russia. Working through a shadowy department within the UK FCO known as the Counter Disinformation & Media Development (CDMD), the media organizations operated alongside a collection of intelligence contractors in a secret entity known simply as “the Consortium.”Through training programs of Russian journalists overseen by Reuters, the British Foreign Office sought to produce an “attitudinal change in the participants,” promoting a “positive impact” on their “perception of the UK.”“These revelations show that when MPs were railing about Russia, British agents were using the BBC and Reuters to deploy precisely the same tactics that politicians and media commentators were accusing Russia of using,” Chris Williamson, a former UK Labour MP who attempted to apply public scrutiny to the CDMD’s covert activities and was stonewalled on national security grounds, told The Grayzone.“The BBC and Reuters portray themselves as an unimpeachable, impartial, and authoritative source of world news,” Williamson continued, “but both are now hugely compromised by these disclosures. Double standards like this just bring establishment politicians and corporate media hacks into further disrepute.”Thomson Reuters Foundation spokesperson Jenny Vereker implicitly confirmed the authenticity of the l eaked documents in an emailed response to questions from The Grayzone. However, she contended, “The inference that the Thomson Reuters Foundation was engaged in ‘secret activities’ is inaccurate and misrepresents our work in the public interest..”